Selectivity curves of the capture of mangrove crab (Ucides cordatus) on the northern coast of Brazil using bayesian inference.

PubMed

Furtado-Junior, I; Abrunhosa, F A; Holanda, F C A F; Tavares, M C S

2016-06-01

Fishing selectivity of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus in the north coast of Brazil can be defined as the fisherman's ability to capture and select individuals from a certain size or sex (or a combination of these factors) which suggests an empirical selectivity. Considering this hypothesis, we calculated the selectivity curves for males and females crabs using the logit function of the logistic model in the formulation. The Bayesian inference consisted of obtaining the posterior distribution by applying the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to software R using the OpenBUGS, BRugs, and R2WinBUGS libraries. The estimated results of width average carapace selection for males and females compared with previous studies reporting the average width of the carapace of sexual maturity allow us to confirm the hypothesis that most mature individuals do not suffer from fishing pressure; thus, ensuring their sustainability.

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses--an overview and application of NetMetaXL.

PubMed

Brown, Stephen; Hutton, Brian; Clifford, Tammy; Coyle, Doug; Grima, Daniel; Wells, George; Cameron, Chris

2014-09-29

The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL's interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent critical appraisal of network meta-analyses, enhanced standardization of reporting, and integration with health economic evaluations which are frequently Excel-based.

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses—an overview and application of NetMetaXL

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. Methods We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL’s interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. Results We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Conclusions Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent critical appraisal of network meta-analyses, enhanced standardization of reporting, and integration with health economic evaluations which are frequently Excel-based. PMID:25267416

Propagation of population pharmacokinetic information using a Bayesian approach: comparison with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dokoumetzidis, Aristides; Aarons, Leon

2005-08-01

We investigated the propagation of population pharmacokinetic information across clinical studies by applying Bayesian techniques. The aim was to summarize the population pharmacokinetic estimates of a study in appropriate statistical distributions in order to use them as Bayesian priors in consequent population pharmacokinetic analyses. Various data sets of simulated and real clinical data were fitted with WinBUGS, with and without informative priors. The posterior estimates of fittings with non-informative priors were used to build parametric informative priors and the whole procedure was carried on in a consecutive manner. The posterior distributions of the fittings with informative priors where compared to those of the meta-analysis fittings of the respective combinations of data sets. Good agreement was found, for the simulated and experimental datasets when the populations were exchangeable, with the posterior distribution from the fittings with the prior to be nearly identical to the ones estimated with meta-analysis. However, when populations were not exchangeble an alternative parametric form for the prior, the natural conjugate prior, had to be used in order to have consistent results. In conclusion, the results of a population pharmacokinetic analysis may be summarized in Bayesian prior distributions that can be used consecutively with other analyses. The procedure is an alternative to meta-analysis and gives comparable results. It has the advantage that it is faster than the meta-analysis, due to the large datasets used with the latter and can be performed when the data included in the prior are not actually available.

Monitoring Web Site Usage of e-Bug: A Hygiene and Antibiotic Awareness Resource for Children

PubMed Central

Rajapandian, Vijayamaharaj; Eley, Charlotte V; Hoekstra, Beverley A; Lecky, Donna M; McNulty, Cliodna AM

2015-01-01

Background e-Bug is an educational resource which teaches children and young people about microbes, hygiene, infection, and prudent antibiotic use. The e-Bug resources are available in over 22 different languages and they are used widely across the globe. The resources can be accessed from the e-Bug website. Objective The objective of this study was to analyze the usage of the e-Bug website in order to understand how users access the website, where and when they access the site, and to review variation in use across the different areas of the site. Methods The usage statistics for the e-Bug website were monitored by Google Analytics between September 2010 and August 2013. Results The statistics show the website had over 324,000 visits during the three years, from just under 250,000 visitors, with the number of visitors increasing year after year. Visitors accessed the website from 211 different countries, with more than 267,000 documents downloaded. The majority of visitors were from the United Kingdom and visited the English website, although countries such as France and Portugal were also frequent visitors. Conclusions These website statistics confirm that e-Bug is frequently used across Europe and highlight that e-Bug use has expanded across the world. The findings from this report will be used to inform future modifications or updates to the materials, as well as the development of new educational resources. PMID:26567127

Using SAS PROC MCMC for Item Response Theory Models

PubMed Central

Samonte, Kelli

2014-01-01

Interest in using Bayesian methods for estimating item response theory models has grown at a remarkable rate in recent years. This attentiveness to Bayesian estimation has also inspired a growth in available software such as WinBUGS, R packages, BMIRT, MPLUS, and SAS PROC MCMC. This article intends to provide an accessible overview of Bayesian methods in the context of item response theory to serve as a useful guide for practitioners in estimating and interpreting item response theory (IRT) models. Included is a description of the estimation procedure used by SAS PROC MCMC. Syntax is provided for estimation of both dichotomous and polytomous IRT models, as well as a discussion on how to extend the syntax to accommodate more complex IRT models. PMID:29795834

RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language

PubMed Central

Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com. [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.] PMID:27235697

RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language.

PubMed

Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J; Heath, Tracy A; Boussau, Bastien; Lartillot, Nicolas; Moore, Brian R; Huelsenbeck, John P; Ronquist, Fredrik

2016-07-01

Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Cipoli, Daniel E; Martinez, Edson Z; Castro, Margaret de; Moreira, Ayrton C

2012-12-01

To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS.

Using a web-based application to define the accuracy of diagnostic tests when the gold standard is imperfect.

PubMed

Lim, Cherry; Wannapinij, Prapass; White, Lisa; Day, Nicholas P J; Cooper, Ben S; Peacock, Sharon J; Limmathurotsakul, Direk

2013-01-01

Estimates of the sensitivity and specificity for new diagnostic tests based on evaluation against a known gold standard are imprecise when the accuracy of the gold standard is imperfect. Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) can be helpful under these circumstances, but the necessary analysis requires expertise in computational programming. Here, we describe open-access web-based applications that allow non-experts to apply Bayesian LCMs to their own data sets via a user-friendly interface. Applications for Bayesian LCMs were constructed on a web server using R and WinBUGS programs. The models provided (http://mice.tropmedres.ac) include two Bayesian LCMs: the two-tests in two-population model (Hui and Walter model) and the three-tests in one-population model (Walter and Irwig model). Both models are available with simplified and advanced interfaces. In the former, all settings for Bayesian statistics are fixed as defaults. Users input their data set into a table provided on the webpage. Disease prevalence and accuracy of diagnostic tests are then estimated using the Bayesian LCM, and provided on the web page within a few minutes. With the advanced interfaces, experienced researchers can modify all settings in the models as needed. These settings include correlation among diagnostic test results and prior distributions for all unknown parameters. The web pages provide worked examples with both models using the original data sets presented by Hui and Walter in 1980, and by Walter and Irwig in 1988. We also illustrate the utility of the advanced interface using the Walter and Irwig model on a data set from a recent melioidosis study. The results obtained from the web-based applications were comparable to those published previously. The newly developed web-based applications are open-access and provide an important new resource for researchers worldwide to evaluate new diagnostic tests.

How-To-Do-It: Snails, Pill Bugs, Mealworms, and Chi-Square? Using Invertebrate Behavior to Illustrate Hypothesis Testing with Chi-Square.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biermann, Carol

1988-01-01

Described is a study designed to introduce students to the behavior of common invertebrate animals, and to use of the chi-square statistical technique. Discusses activities with snails, pill bugs, and mealworms. Provides an abbreviated chi-square table and instructions for performing the experiments and statistical tests. (CW)

Getting more from accuracy and response time data: methods for fitting the linear ballistic accumulator.

PubMed

Donkin, Chris; Averell, Lee; Brown, Scott; Heathcote, Andrew

2009-11-01

Cognitive models of the decision process provide greater insight into response time and accuracy than do standard ANOVA techniques. However, such models can be mathematically and computationally difficult to apply. We provide instructions and computer code for three methods for estimating the parameters of the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA), a new and computationally tractable model of decisions between two or more choices. These methods-a Microsoft Excel worksheet, scripts for the statistical program R, and code for implementation of the LBA into the Bayesian sampling software WinBUGS-vary in their flexibility and user accessibility. We also provide scripts in R that produce a graphical summary of the data and model predictions. In a simulation study, we explored the effect of sample size on parameter recovery for each method. The materials discussed in this article may be downloaded as a supplement from http://brm.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

2018-03-01

The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

Skin antiseptics in venous puncture site disinfection for preventing blood culture contamination: A Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Liu, Wenjie; Duan, Yuchen; Cui, Wenyao; Li, Li; Wang, Xia; Dai, Heling; You, Chao; Chen, Maojun

2016-07-01

To compare the efficacy of several antiseptics in decreasing the blood culture contamination rate. Network meta-analysis. Electronic searches of PubMed and Embase were conducted up to November 2015. Only randomized controlled trials or quasi-randomized controlled trials were eligible. We applied no language restriction. A comprehensive review of articles in the reference lists was also accomplished for possible relevant studies. Relevant studies evaluating efficacy of different antiseptics in venous puncture site for decreasing the blood culture contamination rate were included. The data were extracted from the included randomized controlled trials by two authors independently. The risk of bias was evaluated using Detsky scale by two authors independently. We used WinBUGS1.43 software and statistic model described by Chaimani to perform this network meta-analysis. Then graphs of statistical results of WinBUGS1.43 software were generated using 'networkplot', 'ifplot', 'netfunnel' and 'sucra' procedure by STATA13.0. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were assessed for dichotomous data. A probability of p less than 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Compared with ordinary meta-analyses, this network meta-analysis offered hierarchies for the efficacy of different antiseptics in decreasing the blood culture contamination rate. Seven randomized controlled trials involving 34,408 blood samples were eligible for the meta-analysis. No significant difference was found in blood culture contamination rate among different antiseptics. No significant difference was found between non-alcoholic antiseptics and alcoholic antiseptics, alcoholic chlorhexidine and povidone iodine, chlorhexidine and iodine compounds, povidone iodine and iodine tincture in this aspect, respectively. Different antiseptics may not affect the blood culture contamination rate. Different intervals between the skin disinfection and the venous puncture, the different settings (emergency room, medical wards, and intensive care units) and the performance of the phlebotomy may affect the blood culture contamination rate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Software and package applicating for network meta-analysis: A usage-based comparative study.

PubMed

Xu, Chang; Niu, Yuming; Wu, Junyi; Gu, Huiyun; Zhang, Chao

2017-12-21

To compare and analyze the characteristics and functions of software applications for network meta-analysis (NMA). PubMed, EMbase, The Cochrane Library, the official websites of Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS), Stata and R, and Google were searched to collect the software and packages for performing NMA; software and packages published up to March 2016 were included. After collecting the software, packages, and their user guides, we used the software and packages to calculate a typical example. All characteristics, functions, and computed results were compared and analyzed. Ten types of software were included, including programming and non-programming software. They were developed mainly based on Bayesian or frequentist theory. Most types of software have the characteristics of easy operation, easy mastery, exact calculation, or excellent graphing. However, there was no single software that performed accurate calculations with superior graphing; this could only be achieved through the combination of two or more types of software. This study suggests that the user should choose the appropriate software according to personal programming basis, operational habits, and financial ability. Then, the choice of the combination of BUGS and R (or Stata) software to perform the NMA is considered. © 2017 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

New Introductions, Spread of Existing Matrilines, and High Rates of Pyrethroid Resistance Result in Chronic Infestations of Bed Bugs (Cimex lectularius L.) in Lower-Income Housing

PubMed Central

Raab, Ronald W.; Moore, Julia E.; Vargo, Edward L.; Rose, Lucy; Raab, Julie; Culbreth, Madeline; Burzumato, Gracie; Koyee, Aurvan; McCarthy, Brittany; Raffaele, Jennifer; Schal, Coby; Vaidyanathan, Rajeev

2016-01-01

Infestations of the common bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) have increased substantially in the United States in the past 10–15 years. The housing authority in Harrisonburg, Virginia, conducts heat-treatments after bed bugs are detected in a lower-income housing complex, by treating each infested unit at 60°C for 4–6 hours. However, a high frequency of recurrent infestations called into question the efficacy of this strategy. Genetic analysis using Bayesian clustering of polymorphic microsatellite loci from 123 bed bugs collected from 23 units from May 2012 to April 2013 in one building indicated that (a) 16/21 (73%) infestations were genetically similar, suggesting ineffective heat-treatments or reintroductions from within the building or from a common external source, followed by local spread of existing populations; and (b) up to 5 of the infestations represented new genotypes, indicating that 5 new populations were introduced into this building in one year, assuming they were not missed in earlier screens. There was little to no gene flow among the 8 genetic clusters identified in the building. Bed bugs in the U.S. often possess one or both point mutations in the voltage-gated sodium channel, termed knockdown resistance (kdr), from valine to leucine (V419L) and leucine to isoleucine (L925I) that confer target-site resistance against pyrethroid insecticides. We found that 48/121 (40%) bed bugs were homozygous for both kdr mutations (L419/I925), and a further 59% possessed at least one of the kdr mutations. We conclude that ineffective heat treatments, new introductions, reintroductions and local spread, and an exceptionally high frequency of pyrethroid resistance are responsible for chronic infestations in lower-income housing. Because heat treatments fail to protect from reintroductions, and pesticide use has not decreased the frequency of infestations, preventing new introductions and early detection are the most effective strategies to avoid bed bug infestations in multistory apartment buildings. PMID:26901153

Bladder cancer mapping in Libya based on standardized morbidity ratio and log-normal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley

2017-05-01

Disease mapping contains a set of statistical techniques that detail maps of rates based on estimated mortality, morbidity, and prevalence. A traditional approach to measure the relative risk of the disease is called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR). It is the ratio of an observed and expected number of accounts in an area, which has the greatest uncertainty if the disease is rare or if geographical area is small. Therefore, Bayesian models or statistical smoothing based on Log-normal model are introduced which might solve SMR problem. This study estimates the relative risk for bladder cancer incidence in Libya from 2006 to 2007 based on the SMR and log-normal model, which were fitted to data using WinBUGS software. This study starts with a brief review of these models, starting with the SMR method and followed by the log-normal model, which is then applied to bladder cancer incidence in Libya. All results are compared using maps and tables. The study concludes that the log-normal model gives better relative risk estimates compared to the classical method. The log-normal model has can overcome the SMR problem when there is no observed bladder cancer in an area.

Mitochondrial phylogenomics of Hemiptera reveals adaptive innovations driving the diversification of true bugs

PubMed Central

Li, Hu; Leavengood, John M.; Chapman, Eric G.; Burkhardt, Daniel; Song, Fan; Jiang, Pei; Liu, Jinpeng; Cai, Wanzhi

2017-01-01

Hemiptera, the largest non-holometabolous order of insects, represents approximately 7% of metazoan diversity. With extraordinary life histories and highly specialized morphological adaptations, hemipterans have exploited diverse habitats and food sources through approximately 300 Myr of evolution. To elucidate the phylogeny and evolutionary history of Hemiptera, we carried out the most comprehensive mitogenomics analysis on the richest taxon sampling to date covering all the suborders and infraorders, including 34 newly sequenced and 94 published mitogenomes. With optimized branch length and sequence heterogeneity, Bayesian analyses using a site-heterogeneous mixture model resolved the higher-level hemipteran phylogeny as (Sternorrhyncha, (Auchenorrhyncha, (Coleorrhyncha, Heteroptera))). Ancestral character state reconstruction and divergence time estimation suggest that the success of true bugs (Heteroptera) is probably due to angiosperm coevolution, but key adaptive innovations (e.g. prognathous mouthpart, predatory behaviour, and haemelytron) facilitated multiple independent shifts among diverse feeding habits and multiple independent colonizations of aquatic habitats. PMID:28878063

A Bayesian network meta-analysis for binary outcome: how to do it.

PubMed

Greco, Teresa; Landoni, Giovanni; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Zangrillo, Alberto

2016-10-01

This study presents an overview of conceptual and practical issues of a network meta-analysis (NMA), particularly focusing on its application to randomised controlled trials with a binary outcome of interest. We start from general considerations on NMA to specifically appraise how to collect study data, structure the analytical network and specify the requirements for different models and parameter interpretations, with the ultimate goal of providing physicians and clinician-investigators a practical tool to understand pros and cons of NMA. Specifically, we outline the key steps, from the literature search to sensitivity analysis, necessary to perform a valid NMA of binomial data, exploiting Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. We also apply this analytical approach to a case study on the beneficial effects of volatile agents compared to total intravenous anaesthetics for surgery to further clarify the statistical details of the models, diagnostics and computations. Finally, datasets and models for the freeware WinBUGS package are presented for the anaesthetic agent example. © The Author(s) 2013.

Differences in Mortality among Heroin, Cocaine, and Methamphetamine Users: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Liang, Li-Jung; Huang, David; Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Hser, Yih-ing

2010-01-01

Studies examining differences in mortality among long-term drug users have been limited. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework that jointly models survival data using a Weibull proportional hazard model with frailty, and substance and alcohol data using mixed-effects models, to examine differences in mortality among heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine users from five long-term follow-up studies. The traditional approach to analyzing combined survival data from numerous studies assumes that the studies are homogeneous, thus the estimates may be biased due to unobserved heterogeneity among studies. Our approach allows us to structurally combine the data from different studies while accounting for correlation among subjects within each study. Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitates the implementation of Bayesian analyses. Despite the complexity of the model, our approach is relatively straightforward to implement using WinBUGS. We demonstrate our joint modeling approach to the combined data and discuss the results from both approaches. PMID:21052518

Empirical Bayesian Geographical Mapping of Occupational Accidents among Iranian Workers.

PubMed

Vahabi, Nasim; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan; Datta, Somnath

2017-05-01

Work-related accidents are believed to be a serious preventable cause of mortality and disability worldwide. This study aimed to provide Bayesian geographical maps of occupational injury rates among workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization. The participants included all insured workers in the Iranian Social Security Organization database in 2012. One of the applications of the Bayesian approach called the Poisson-Gamma model was applied to estimate the relative risk of occupational accidents. Data analysis and mapping were performed using R 3.0.3, Open-Bugs 3.2.3 rev 1012 and ArcMap9.3. The majority of all 21,484 investigated occupational injury victims were male (98.3%) including 16,443 (76.5%) single workers aged 20 - 29 years. The accidents were more frequent in basic metal, electric, and non-electric machining jobs. About 0.4% (96) of work-related accidents led to death, 2.2% (457) led to disability (partial and total), 4.6% (980) led to fixed compensation, and 92.8% (19,951) of the injured victims recovered completely. The geographical maps of estimated relative risk of occupational accidents were also provided. The results showed that the highest estimations pertained to provinces which were mostly located along mountain chains, some of which are categorized as deprived provinces in Iran. The study revealed the need for further investigation of the role of economic and climatic factors in high risk areas. The application of geographical mapping together with statistical approaches can provide more accurate tools for policy makers to make better decisions in order to prevent and reduce the risks and adverse outcomes of work-related accidents.

Mental health effects from urban bed bug infestation (Cimex lectularius L.): a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Susser, Stephanie Rebecca; Perron, Stéphane; Fournier, Michel; Jacques, Louis; Denis, Geoffroy; Tessier, François; Roberge, Pasquale

2012-01-01

To assess whether bed bug infestation was linked to sleep disturbances and symptoms of anxiety and depression. Exploratory cross-sectional study. Convenience sample of tenants recruited in apartment complexes from Montreal, Canada. 39 bed bug-exposed tenants were compared with 52 unexposed tenants. The effect of bed bug-exposed tenants on sleep disturbances, anxiety and depression symptoms measured using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, 5th subscale, Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale and Patient Health Questionnaire, 9-item, respectively. In adjusted models, bed bug infestation was strongly associated with measured anxiety symptoms (OR (95% CI)=4.8 (1.5 to 14.7)) and sleep disturbance (OR (95% CI)=5.0 (1.3-18.8)). There was a trend to report more symptoms of depression in the bed bug-infested group, although this finding was not statistically significant ((OR (95% CI)=2.5(0.8 to 7.3)). These results suggest that individuals exposed to bed bug infestations are at risk of experiencing sleep disturbance and of developing symptoms of anxiety and possibly depression. Greater clinical awareness of this problem is needed in order for patients to receive appropriate mental healthcare. These findings highlight the need for undertaking of deeper inquiry, as well as greater collaboration between medical professionals, public health and community stakeholders.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

PubMed Central

Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889

Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

PubMed

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Computer games to teach hygiene: an evaluation of the e-Bug junior game.

PubMed

Farrell, David; Kostkova, Patty; Weinberg, Julius; Lazareck, Lisa; Weerasinghe, Dasun; Lecky, Donna M; McNulty, Cliodna A M

2011-06-01

Handwashing, respiratory hygiene and antibiotic resistance remain major public health concerns. In order to facilitate an effective outcome when teaching the basic principles of hand and respiratory hygiene, educational interventions should first target school children. As computer games are ubiquitous in most children's lives, e-Bug developed computer games targeted at teaching children handwashing, respiratory hygiene and antibiotic resistance. The games were designed for two target audiences: junior school children (9-12 year olds); and senior school children (13-15 year olds). Between May and August 2009, the finalized junior game underwent an evaluation in three UK schools (in Glasgow, Gloucester and London), involving 62 children in the schools and ∼ 1700 players accessing the junior game online. The e-Bug junior game consists of a number of levels of play, each of which promotes a set of learning outcomes (LOs). These LOs, complementary to those in the e-Bug packs, are expressed through the game mechanics (the rules of the game) rather than through story or dialogue. Although the junior game's evaluation demonstrated a statistically significant change in the knowledge for only a small number of given LOs, because many children had the required knowledge already before playing the game, this is e-Bug's first statistical study on the junior game and the first comprehensive evaluation of its kind. Future work includes a re-examination of the quiz-style questionnaires utilized in this study and an exploration of the potential knowledge change acquired strictly through engagement.

Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayhurst, Kelly J.

1991-01-01

Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana L. Kelly

Typical engineering systems in applications with high failure consequences such as nuclear reactor plants often employ redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore risk. However, it has long been recognized that dependencies exist in these redundant and diverse systems. Some dependencies, such as common sources of electrical power, are typically captured in the logic structure of the risk model. Others, usually referred to as intercomponent dependencies, are treated implicitly by introducing one or more statistical parameters into the model. Such common-cause failure models have limitations in a simulation environment. In addition,more » substantial subjectivity is associated with parameter estimation for these models. This paper describes an approach in which system performance is simulated by drawing samples from the joint distributions of dependent variables. The approach relies on the notion of a copula distribution, a notion which has been employed by the actuarial community for ten years or more, but which has seen only limited application in technological risk assessment. The paper also illustrates how equipment failure data can be used in a Bayesian framework to estimate the parameter values in the copula model. This approach avoids much of the subjectivity required to estimate parameters in traditional common-cause failure models. Simulation examples are presented for failures in time. The open-source software package R is used to perform the simulations. The open-source software package WinBUGS is used to perform the Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.« less

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to comparative audit for carotid surgery.

PubMed

Kuhan, G; Marshall, E C; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; McCollum, P T

2002-12-01

the aim of this study was to illustrate how a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach can aid the reliable comparison of outcome rates between surgeons. retrospective analysis of prospective and retrospective data. binary outcome data (death/stroke within 30 days), together with information on 15 possible risk factors specific for CEA were available on 836 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons from 1992-99. The median patient age was 68 (range 38-86) years and 60% were men. the model was developed using the WinBUGS software. After adjusting for patient-level risk factors, a cross-validatory approach was adopted to identify "divergent" performance. A ranking exercise was also carried out. the overall observed 30-day stroke/death rate was 3.9% (33/836). The model found diabetes, stroke and heart disease to be significant risk factors. There was no significant difference between the predicted and observed outcome rates for any surgeon (Bayesian p -value>0.05). Each surgeon had a median rank of 3 with associated 95% CI 1.0-5.0, despite the variability of observed stroke/death rate from 2.9-4.4%. After risk adjustment, there was very little residual between-surgeon variability in outcome rate. Bayesian hierarchical models can help to accurately quantify the uncertainty associated with surgeons' performance and rank.

Species composition, monitoring, and feeding injury of stink bugs (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) in blackberry.

PubMed

Brennan, S A; Liburd, O E; Eger, J E; Rhodes, E M

2013-04-01

Blackberry (Rubus spp.) production in Florida has increased > 100% within the past two decades. and several insect pests, including stink bugs (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), have been observed feeding on this crop. The objectives for this study were to determine the stink bug species present in blackberry; to develop monitoring tools for stink bugs in blackberry; and to describe feeding injury to blackberries by Euschistus quadrator Rolston, a relatively new stink bug pest to Florida, that has spread throughout the state. In a field survey, E. quadrator was the most abundant stink bug species, followed by Euschistus servus Say, Euschistus obscurus (Palisot de Beauvois), Thyanta custator (F.), Proxys punctulatus (Palisot de Beauvois), and Podisus maculiventris Say. Yellow pyramid traps caught more stink bugs than tube traps with or without the addition of Euschistus spp. pheromone lures. There were no statistical differences between traps baited with a Trécé Pherocon Centrum lure, a Suterra Scenturion lure, and an unbaited trap. These results were supported by Y-tube olfactometer assays with E. quadrator where there were no differences between pheromone baited lures and a control. Injury to berries caused by E. quadrator adults and third instars was similar, and both adults and third instars fed more on green berries compared with turning berries. In addition, adults fed more on green berries compared with ripe fruit. The most common injury to green berries was discoloration. In contrast, misshapen drupelets were commonly seen on turning and ripe berries. The potential for managing stink bugs in blackberries to prevent them from reaching damaging levels is discussed.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

Bayesian adjustment for measurement error in continuous exposures in an individually matched case-control study.

PubMed

Espino-Hernandez, Gabriela; Gustafson, Paul; Burstyn, Igor

2011-05-14

In epidemiological studies explanatory variables are frequently subject to measurement error. The aim of this paper is to develop a Bayesian method to correct for measurement error in multiple continuous exposures in individually matched case-control studies. This is a topic that has not been widely investigated. The new method is illustrated using data from an individually matched case-control study of the association between thyroid hormone levels during pregnancy and exposure to perfluorinated acids. The objective of the motivating study was to examine the risk of maternal hypothyroxinemia due to exposure to three perfluorinated acids measured on a continuous scale. Results from the proposed method are compared with those obtained from a naive analysis. Using a Bayesian approach, the developed method considers a classical measurement error model for the exposures, as well as the conditional logistic regression likelihood as the disease model, together with a random-effect exposure model. Proper and diffuse prior distributions are assigned, and results from a quality control experiment are used to estimate the perfluorinated acids' measurement error variability. As a result, posterior distributions and 95% credible intervals of the odds ratios are computed. A sensitivity analysis of method's performance in this particular application with different measurement error variability was performed. The proposed Bayesian method to correct for measurement error is feasible and can be implemented using statistical software. For the study on perfluorinated acids, a comparison of the inferences which are corrected for measurement error to those which ignore it indicates that little adjustment is manifested for the level of measurement error actually exhibited in the exposures. Nevertheless, a sensitivity analysis shows that more substantial adjustments arise if larger measurement errors are assumed. In individually matched case-control studies, the use of conditional logistic regression likelihood as a disease model in the presence of measurement error in multiple continuous exposures can be justified by having a random-effect exposure model. The proposed method can be successfully implemented in WinBUGS to correct individually matched case-control studies for several mismeasured continuous exposures under a classical measurement error model.

Evaluation of a neutron spectrum from Bonner spheres measurements using a Bayesian parameter estimation combined with the traditional unfolding methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazrou, H.; Bezoubiri, F.

2018-07-01

In this work, a new program developed under MATLAB environment and supported by the Bayesian software WinBUGS has been combined to the traditional unfolding codes namely MAXED and GRAVEL, to evaluate a neutron spectrum from the Bonner spheres measured counts obtained around a shielded 241AmBe based-neutron irradiator located at a Secondary Standards Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL) at CRNA. In the first step, the results obtained by the standalone Bayesian program, using a parametric neutron spectrum model based on a linear superposition of three components namely: a thermal-Maxwellian distribution, an epithermal (1/E behavior) and a kind of a Watt fission and Evaporation models to represent the fast component, were compared to those issued from MAXED and GRAVEL assuming a Monte Carlo default spectrum. Through the selection of new upper limits for some free parameters, taking into account the physical characteristics of the irradiation source, of both considered models, good agreement was obtained for investigated integral quantities i.e. fluence rate and ambient dose equivalent rate compared to MAXED and GRAVEL results. The difference was generally below 4% for investigated parameters suggesting, thereby, the reliability of the proposed models. In the second step, the Bayesian results obtained from the previous calculations were used, as initial guess spectra, for the traditional unfolding codes, MAXED and GRAVEL to derive the solution spectra. Here again the results were in very good agreement, confirming the stability of the Bayesian solution.

A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology: The last 25 years.

PubMed

van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

2017-06-01

Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statistics plays in psychology. This historical assessment allows us to identify trends and see how Bayesian methods have been integrated into psychological research in the context of different statistical frameworks (e.g., hypothesis testing, cognitive models, IRT, SEM, etc.). We also describe take-home messages and provide "big-picture" recommendations to the field as Bayesian statistics becomes more popular. Our review indicated that Bayesian statistics is used in a variety of contexts across subfields of psychology and related disciplines. There are many different reasons why one might choose to use Bayes (e.g., the use of priors, estimating otherwise intractable models, modeling uncertainty, etc.). We found in this review that the use of Bayes has increased and broadened in the sense that this methodology can be used in a flexible manner to tackle many different forms of questions. We hope this presentation opens the door for a larger discussion regarding the current state of Bayesian statistics, as well as future trends. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Spatial Inequalities in the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Factors in the Neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran: Bayesian Spatial Models

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05). The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53), living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96), not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68) were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range) and mean (standard deviation) values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01) and 1.05 (1.31), respectively. Conclusions Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in atrisk areas. PMID:29397644

Evaluation of fecal culture and fecal RT-PCR to detect Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis fecal shedding in dairy goats and dairy sheep using latent class Bayesian modeling.

PubMed

Bauman, Cathy A; Jones-Bitton, Andria; Jansen, Jocelyn; Kelton, David; Menzies, Paula

2016-09-20

The study's objective was to evaluate the ability of fecal culture (FCUL) and fecal PCR (FPCR) to identify dairy goat and dairy sheep shedding Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis. A cross-sectional study of the small ruminant populations was performed in Ontario, Canada between October 2010 and August 2011. Twenty-nine dairy goat herds and 21 dairy sheep flocks were visited, and 20 lactating females > two years of age were randomly selected from each farm resulting in 580 goats and 397 sheep participating in the study. Feces were collected per rectum and cultured using the BD BACTEC™ MGIT™ 960 system using a standard (49 days) and an extended (240 days) incubation time, and underwent RT-PCR based on the hsp-X gene (Tetracore®). Statistical analysis was performed using a 2-test latent class Bayesian hierarchical model for each species fitted in WinBUGS. Extending the fecal culture incubation time statistically improved FCUL sensitivity from 23.1 % (95 % PI: 15.9-34.1) to 42.7 % (95 % PI: 33.0-54.5) in dairy goats and from 5.8 % (95 % PI: 2.3-12.4) to 19.0 % (95 % PI: 11.9-28.9) in dairy sheep. FPCR demonstrated statistically higher sensitivity than FCUL (49 day incubation) with a sensitivity of 31.9 % (95 % PI: 22.4-43.1) in goats and 42.6 % (95 % PI: 28.8-63.3) in sheep. Fecal culture demonstrates such low sensitivity at the standard incubation time it cannot be recommended as a screening test to detect shedding of MAP in either goats or sheep. Extending the incubation time resulted in improved sensitivity; however, it is still disappointingly low for screening purposes. Fecal PCR should be the screening test of choice in both species; however, it is important to recognize that control programs should not be based on testing alone when they demonstrate such low sensitivity.

Modeling abundance using hierarchical distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

2016-01-01

In this chapter, we provide an introduction to classical distance sampling ideas for point and line transect data, and for continuous and binned distance data. We introduce the conditional and the full likelihood, and we discuss Bayesian analysis of these models in BUGS using the idea of data augmentation, which we discussed in Chapter 7. We then extend the basic ideas to the problem of hierarchical distance sampling (HDS), where we have multiple point or transect sample units in space (or possibly in time). The benefit of HDS in practice is that it allows us to directly model spatial variation in population size among these sample units. This is a preeminent concern of most field studies that use distance sampling methods, but it is not a problem that has received much attention in the literature. We show how to analyze HDS models in both the unmarked package and in the BUGS language for point and line transects, and for continuous and binned distance data. We provide a case study of HDS applied to a survey of the island scrub-jay on Santa Cruz Island, California.

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

PubMed Central

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2015-01-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

PubMed

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

A Primer on Bayesian Analysis for Experimental Psychopathologists

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Blanken, Tessa F.; Arnaudova, Inna; Matzke, Dora; Beckers, Tom

2016-01-01

The principal goals of experimental psychopathology (EPP) research are to offer insights into the pathogenic mechanisms of mental disorders and to provide a stable ground for the development of clinical interventions. The main message of the present article is that those goals are better served by the adoption of Bayesian statistics than by the continued use of null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). In the first part of the article we list the main disadvantages of NHST and explain why those disadvantages limit the conclusions that can be drawn from EPP research. Next, we highlight the advantages of Bayesian statistics. To illustrate, we then pit NHST and Bayesian analysis against each other using an experimental data set from our lab. Finally, we discuss some challenges when adopting Bayesian statistics. We hope that the present article will encourage experimental psychopathologists to embrace Bayesian statistics, which could strengthen the conclusions drawn from EPP research. PMID:28748068

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Logistic random effects regression models: a comparison of statistical packages for binary and ordinal outcomes.

PubMed

Li, Baoyue; Lingsma, Hester F; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2011-05-23

Logistic random effects models are a popular tool to analyze multilevel also called hierarchical data with a binary or ordinal outcome. Here, we aim to compare different statistical software implementations of these models. We used individual patient data from 8509 patients in 231 centers with moderate and severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) enrolled in eight Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and three observational studies. We fitted logistic random effects regression models with the 5-point Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) as outcome, both dichotomized as well as ordinal, with center and/or trial as random effects, and as covariates age, motor score, pupil reactivity or trial. We then compared the implementations of frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the fixed and random effects. Frequentist approaches included R (lme4), Stata (GLLAMM), SAS (GLIMMIX and NLMIXED), MLwiN ([R]IGLS) and MIXOR, Bayesian approaches included WinBUGS, MLwiN (MCMC), R package MCMCglmm and SAS experimental procedure MCMC.Three data sets (the full data set and two sub-datasets) were analysed using basically two logistic random effects models with either one random effect for the center or two random effects for center and trial. For the ordinal outcome in the full data set also a proportional odds model with a random center effect was fitted. The packages gave similar parameter estimates for both the fixed and random effects and for the binary (and ordinal) models for the main study and when based on a relatively large number of level-1 (patient level) data compared to the number of level-2 (hospital level) data. However, when based on relatively sparse data set, i.e. when the numbers of level-1 and level-2 data units were about the same, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches showed somewhat different results. The software implementations differ considerably in flexibility, computation time, and usability. There are also differences in the availability of additional tools for model evaluation, such as diagnostic plots. The experimental SAS (version 9.2) procedure MCMC appeared to be inefficient. On relatively large data sets, the different software implementations of logistic random effects regression models produced similar results. Thus, for a large data set there seems to be no explicit preference (of course if there is no preference from a philosophical point of view) for either a frequentist or Bayesian approach (if based on vague priors). The choice for a particular implementation may largely depend on the desired flexibility, and the usability of the package. For small data sets the random effects variances are difficult to estimate. In the frequentist approaches the MLE of this variance was often estimated zero with a standard error that is either zero or could not be determined, while for Bayesian methods the estimates could depend on the chosen "non-informative" prior of the variance parameter. The starting value for the variance parameter may be also critical for the convergence of the Markov chain.

A Hierarchical Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Ensemble Model output Statistics in Atmospheric Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components with a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian approach to...Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods , Metropolis algorithm, machine learning, atmospheric prediction 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...scale processes. However, this dissertation explores the efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components

Genetic variability, phylogenetic relationships and gene flow in Triatoma infestans dark morphs from the Argentinean Chaco

PubMed Central

Piccinali, R. V.; Marcet, P. L.; Ceballos, L. A.; Kitron, U.; Gürtler, R. E.; Dotson, E. M.

2011-01-01

The recent discovery of sylvatic populations of Triatoma infestans outside the Andean Valleys of Bolivia prompted an evolutionary question about the putative ancestral area of origin and dispersal of the species, and an epidemiological question regarding the possible role of these sylvatic populations in the recolonization process of insecticide-treated houses. The finding of a population of sylvatic melanic T. infestans (dark morphs) in the Argentinean dry Chaco at 7 km from a peridomestic bug population of typical coloration gave us the opportunity to test both questions simultaneously by employing phylogenetic and population genetic approaches. For this purpose we analyzed sylvatic and peridomestic bugs using sequence-based mitochondrial and nuclear markers (mtCOI and ITS-1) and microsatellites. Sylvatic bugs were confirmed to be T. infestans and not hybrids, and showed high levels of genetic variability and departures from neutral expectations for mtCOI variation. New ITS-1 and mtCOI haplotypes were recorded, as well as haplotypes shared with peridomestic and/or domestic bugs from previous records. The peridomestic population was invariant for ITS-1 and mtCOI, but showed variability for microsatellites and signatures of a population bottleneck, probably due to a limited number of founders. Phylogenetic analyses were consistent with the presence of ancestral haplotypes in sylvatic bugs. According to F-statistics and assignment methods there was a significant differentiation between sylvatic and peridomestic bugs and gene flow was low and asymmetric, with more bugs moving from the peridomicile to the sylvatic environment. These results support the hypothesis of the Chaco region as the area of origin of T. infestans, and a limited role of sylvatic melanic T. infestans in peridomestic infestation in the Argentinean Chaco. PMID:21352954

Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

Genetic Variability and Geographic Diversity of the Common Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) Populations from the Midwest Using Microsatellite Markers.

PubMed

Narain, Ralph B; Lalithambika, Sreedevi; Kamble, Shripat T

2015-07-01

With the recent global resurgence of the bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L.), there is a need to better understand its biology, ecology, and ability to establish populations. Bed bugs are domestic pests that feed mainly on mammalian blood. Although bed bugs have not been implicated as vectors of pathogens, their biting activity inflicts severe insomnia and allergic reactions. Moreover, they have recently developed resistance to various insecticides, which requires further molecular research to determine genetic variation and appropriate interventions. Population dynamics, including genetic differentiation and genetic distance of 10 populations from the Midwest were analyzed in this study. The bed bug samples collected by pest control companies were genotyped using eight species-specific microsatellite markers. Results showed all eight markers were polymorphic, with 8-16 alleles per locus, suggesting high genetic diversity. The FST values were >0.25, signifying pronounced genetic differentiation. The G-test results also indicated high genetic differentiation among populations. The frequency of the most common allele across all eight loci was 0.42. The coefficient of relatedness between each of the populations was >0.5, indicative of sibling or parent-offspring relationships, while the FIS and its confidence interval values were statistically insignificant within the populations tested. The populations departed from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, possibly because of high heterozygosity. The genetic distance analysis using a neighbor-joining tree showed that the populations from Kansas City, MO, were genetically separate from most of those from Nebraska, indicating a geographic pattern of genetic structure. Our study demonstrated the effectiveness of using microsatellite markers to study bed bugs population structure, thereby improving our understanding of bed bug population dynamics in the Midwest. Overall, this study showed a high genetic diversity and identified several new alleles in the bed bug populations in the Midwest. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non-Parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural Networks with Bayesian Networks for Data Fusion and Predictive Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-31

and included explosives such as TATP, HMTD, RDX, RDX, ammonium nitrate , potassium perchlorate, potassium nitrate , sugar, and TNT. The approach...Distribution Unlimited UU UU UU UU 31-05-2016 15-Apr-2014 14-Jan-2015 Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2. d Bayesian and Non- parametric Statistics...of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2. d Bayesian and Non-parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural

Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

2004-01-01

The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

Randomizing Roaches: Exploring the "Bugs" of Randomization in Experimental Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy; Wagler, Ron

2014-01-01

Understanding the roles of random selection and random assignment in experimental design is a central learning objective in most introductory statistics courses. This article describes an activity, appropriate for a high school or introductory statistics course, designed to teach the concepts, values and pitfalls of random selection and assignment…

What Is the Probability You Are a Bayesian?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wulff, Shaun S.; Robinson, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

Bayesian methodology continues to be widely used in statistical applications. As a result, it is increasingly important to introduce students to Bayesian thinking at early stages in their mathematics and statistics education. While many students in upper level probability courses can recite the differences in the Frequentist and Bayesian…

Bayesian Posterior Odds Ratios: Statistical Tools for Collaborative Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Tyler; Rodríguez-Campos, Liliana; Choi, Jeong Hoon

2018-01-01

To begin statistical analysis, Bayesians quantify their confidence in modeling hypotheses with priors. A prior describes the probability of a certain modeling hypothesis apart from the data. Bayesians should be able to defend their choice of prior to a skeptical audience. Collaboration between evaluators and stakeholders could make their choices…

[Bayesian statistics in medicine -- part II: main applications and inference].

PubMed

Montomoli, C; Nichelatti, M

2008-01-01

Bayesian statistics is not only used when one is dealing with 2-way tables, but it can be used for inferential purposes. Using the basic concepts presented in the first part, this paper aims to give a simple overview of Bayesian methods by introducing its foundation (Bayes' theorem) and then applying this rule to a very simple practical example; whenever possible, the elementary processes at the basis of analysis are compared to those of frequentist (classical) statistical analysis. The Bayesian reasoning is naturally connected to medical activity, since it appears to be quite similar to a diagnostic process.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Human-facilitated metapopulation dynamics in an emerging pest species, Cimex lectularius

PubMed Central

FOUNTAIN, TOBY; DUVAUX, LUDOVIC; HORSBURGH, GAVIN; REINHARDT, KLAUS; BUTLIN, ROGER K

2014-01-01

The number and demographic history of colonists can have dramatic consequences for the way in which genetic diversity is distributed and maintained in a metapopulation. The bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a re-emerging pest species whose close association with humans has led to frequent local extinction and colonization, that is, to metapopulation dynamics. Pest control limits the lifespan of subpopulations, causing frequent local extinctions, and human-facilitated dispersal allows the colonization of empty patches. Founder events often result in drastic reductions in diversity and an increased influence of genetic drift. Coupled with restricted migration, this can lead to rapid population differentiation. We therefore predicted strong population structuring. Here, using 21 newly characterized microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we investigate simplified versions of two classical models of metapopulation dynamics, in a coalescent framework, to estimate the number and genetic composition of founders in the common bed bug. We found very limited diversity within infestations but high degrees of structuring across the city of London, with extreme levels of genetic differentiation between infestations (FST = 0.59). ABC results suggest a common origin of all founders of a given subpopulation and that the numbers of colonists were low, implying that even a single mated female is enough to found a new infestation successfully. These patterns of colonization are close to the predictions of the propagule pool model, where all founders originate from the same parental infestation. These results show that aspects of metapopulation dynamics can be captured in simple models and provide insights that are valuable for the future targeted control of bed bug infestations. PMID:24446663

The pharmacokinetics of dexmedetomidine during long-term infusion in critically ill pediatric patients. A Bayesian approach with informative priors.

PubMed

Wiczling, Paweł; Bartkowska-Śniatkowska, Alicja; Szerkus, Oliwia; Siluk, Danuta; Rosada-Kurasińska, Jowita; Warzybok, Justyna; Borsuk, Agnieszka; Kaliszan, Roman; Grześkowiak, Edmund; Bienert, Agnieszka

2016-06-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the pharmacokinetics of dexmedetomidine in the ICU settings during the prolonged infusion and to compare it with the existing literature data using the Bayesian population modeling with literature-based informative priors. Thirty-eight patients were included in the analysis with concentration measurements obtained at two occasions: first from 0 to 24 h after infusion initiation and second from 0 to 8 h after infusion end. Data analysis was conducted using WinBUGS software. The prior information on dexmedetomidine pharmacokinetics was elicited from the literature study pooling results from a relatively large group of 95 children. A two compartment PK model, with allometrically scaled parameters, maturation of clearance and t-student residual distribution on a log-scale was used to describe the data. The incorporation of time-dependent (different between two occasions) PK parameters improved the model. It was observed that volume of distribution is 1.5-fold higher during the second occasion. There was also an evidence of increased (1.3-fold) clearance for the second occasion with posterior probability equal to 62 %. This work demonstrated the usefulness of Bayesian modeling with informative priors in analyzing pharmacokinetic data and comparing it with existing literature knowledge.

Global invasion network of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys.

PubMed

Valentin, Rafael E; Nielsen, Anne L; Wiman, Nik G; Lee, Doo-Hyung; Fonseca, Dina M

2017-08-29

Human mediated transportation into novel habitats is a prerequisite for the establishment of non-native species that become invasive, so knowledge of common sources may allow prevention. The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) is an East Asian species now established across North America and Europe, that in the Eastern United States of America (US) and Italy is causing significant economic losses to agriculture. After US populations were shown to originate from Northern China, others have tried to source BMSB populations now in Canada, Switzerland, Italy, France, Greece, and Hungary. Due to selection of different molecular markers, however, integrating all the datasets to obtain a broader picture of BMSB's expansion has been difficult. To address this limitation we focused on a single locus, the barcode region in the cytochrome oxidase I mitochondrial gene, and analyzed representative BMSB samples from across its current global range using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. We found that China is the likely source of most non-native populations, with at least four separate introductions in North America and three in Europe. Additionally, we found evidence of one bridgehead event: a likely Eastern US source for the central Italy populations that interestingly share enhanced pest status.

Teaching Bayesian Statistics to Undergraduate Students through Debates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Sepideh; Stewart, Wayne

2014-01-01

This paper describes a lecturer's approach to teaching Bayesian statistics to students who were only exposed to the classical paradigm. The study shows how the lecturer extended himself by making use of ventriloquist dolls to grab hold of students' attention and embed important ideas in revealing the differences between the Bayesian and classical…

Bayes in biological anthropology.

PubMed

Konigsberg, Lyle W; Frankenberg, Susan R

2013-12-01

In this article, we both contend and illustrate that biological anthropologists, particularly in the Americas, often think like Bayesians but act like frequentists when it comes to analyzing a wide variety of data. In other words, while our research goals and perspectives are rooted in probabilistic thinking and rest on prior knowledge, we often proceed to use statistical hypothesis tests and confidence interval methods unrelated (or tenuously related) to the research questions of interest. We advocate for applying Bayesian analyses to a number of different bioanthropological questions, especially since many of the programming and computational challenges to doing so have been overcome in the past two decades. To facilitate such applications, this article explains Bayesian principles and concepts, and provides concrete examples of Bayesian computer simulations and statistics that address questions relevant to biological anthropology, focusing particularly on bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology. It also simultaneously reviews the use of Bayesian methods and inference within the discipline to date. This article is intended to act as primer to Bayesian methods and inference in biological anthropology, explaining the relationships of various methods to likelihoods or probabilities and to classical statistical models. Our contention is not that traditional frequentist statistics should be rejected outright, but that there are many situations where biological anthropology is better served by taking a Bayesian approach. To this end it is hoped that the examples provided in this article will assist researchers in choosing from among the broad array of statistical methods currently available. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian statistics in radionuclide metrology: measurement of a decaying source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bochud, François O.; Bailat, Claude J.; Laedermann, Jean-Pascal

2007-08-01

The most intuitive way of defining a probability is perhaps through the frequency at which it appears when a large number of trials are realized in identical conditions. The probability derived from the obtained histogram characterizes the so-called frequentist or conventional statistical approach. In this sense, probability is defined as a physical property of the observed system. By contrast, in Bayesian statistics, a probability is not a physical property or a directly observable quantity, but a degree of belief or an element of inference. The goal of this paper is to show how Bayesian statistics can be used in radionuclide metrology and what its advantages and disadvantages are compared with conventional statistics. This is performed through the example of an yttrium-90 source typically encountered in environmental surveillance measurement. Because of the very low activity of this kind of source and the small half-life of the radionuclide, this measurement takes several days, during which the source decays significantly. Several methods are proposed to compute simultaneously the number of unstable nuclei at a given reference time, the decay constant and the background. Asymptotically, all approaches give the same result. However, Bayesian statistics produces coherent estimates and confidence intervals in a much smaller number of measurements. Apart from the conceptual understanding of statistics, the main difficulty that could deter radionuclide metrologists from using Bayesian statistics is the complexity of the computation.

A Bayesian test for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium of biallelic X-chromosomal markers

PubMed Central

Puig, X; Ginebra, J; Graffelman, J

2017-01-01

The X chromosome is a relatively large chromosome, harboring a lot of genetic information. Much of the statistical analysis of X-chromosomal information is complicated by the fact that males only have one copy. Recently, frequentist statistical tests for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium have been proposed specifically for dealing with markers on the X chromosome. Bayesian test procedures for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium for the autosomes have been described, but Bayesian work on the X chromosome in this context is lacking. This paper gives the first Bayesian approach for testing Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium with biallelic markers at the X chromosome. Marginal and joint posterior distributions for the inbreeding coefficient in females and the male to female allele frequency ratio are computed, and used for statistical inference. The paper gives a detailed account of the proposed Bayesian test, and illustrates it with data from the 1000 Genomes project. In that implementation, a novel approach to tackle multiple testing from a Bayesian perspective through posterior predictive checks is used. PMID:28900292

Logistic random effects regression models: a comparison of statistical packages for binary and ordinal outcomes

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Logistic random effects models are a popular tool to analyze multilevel also called hierarchical data with a binary or ordinal outcome. Here, we aim to compare different statistical software implementations of these models. Methods We used individual patient data from 8509 patients in 231 centers with moderate and severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) enrolled in eight Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and three observational studies. We fitted logistic random effects regression models with the 5-point Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) as outcome, both dichotomized as well as ordinal, with center and/or trial as random effects, and as covariates age, motor score, pupil reactivity or trial. We then compared the implementations of frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the fixed and random effects. Frequentist approaches included R (lme4), Stata (GLLAMM), SAS (GLIMMIX and NLMIXED), MLwiN ([R]IGLS) and MIXOR, Bayesian approaches included WinBUGS, MLwiN (MCMC), R package MCMCglmm and SAS experimental procedure MCMC. Three data sets (the full data set and two sub-datasets) were analysed using basically two logistic random effects models with either one random effect for the center or two random effects for center and trial. For the ordinal outcome in the full data set also a proportional odds model with a random center effect was fitted. Results The packages gave similar parameter estimates for both the fixed and random effects and for the binary (and ordinal) models for the main study and when based on a relatively large number of level-1 (patient level) data compared to the number of level-2 (hospital level) data. However, when based on relatively sparse data set, i.e. when the numbers of level-1 and level-2 data units were about the same, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches showed somewhat different results. The software implementations differ considerably in flexibility, computation time, and usability. There are also differences in the availability of additional tools for model evaluation, such as diagnostic plots. The experimental SAS (version 9.2) procedure MCMC appeared to be inefficient. Conclusions On relatively large data sets, the different software implementations of logistic random effects regression models produced similar results. Thus, for a large data set there seems to be no explicit preference (of course if there is no preference from a philosophical point of view) for either a frequentist or Bayesian approach (if based on vague priors). The choice for a particular implementation may largely depend on the desired flexibility, and the usability of the package. For small data sets the random effects variances are difficult to estimate. In the frequentist approaches the MLE of this variance was often estimated zero with a standard error that is either zero or could not be determined, while for Bayesian methods the estimates could depend on the chosen "non-informative" prior of the variance parameter. The starting value for the variance parameter may be also critical for the convergence of the Markov chain. PMID:21605357

Cuticle Thickening in a Pyrethroid-Resistant Strain of the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae)

PubMed Central

Lilly, David G.; Latham, Sharissa L.; Webb, Cameron E.; Doggett, Stephen L.

2016-01-01

Thickening of the integument as a mechanism of resistance to insecticides is a well recognised phenomenon in the insect world and, in recent times, has been found in insects exhibiting pyrethroid-resistance. Resistance to pyrethroid insecticides in the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L., is widespread and has been frequently inferred as a reason for the pest’s resurgence. Overexpression of cuticle depositing proteins has been demonstrated in pyrethroid-resistant bed bugs although, to date, no morphological analysis of the cuticle has been undertaken in order to confirm a phenotypic link. This paper describes examination of the cuticle thickness of a highly pyrethroid-resistant field strain collected in Sydney, Australia, in response to time-to-knockdown upon forced exposure to a pyrethroid insecticide. Mean cuticle thickness was positively correlated to time-to-knockdown, with significant differences observed between bugs knocked-down at 2 hours, 4 hours, and those still unaffected at 24 hours. Further analysis also demonstrated that the 24 hours survivors possessed a statistically significantly thicker cuticle when compared to a pyrethroid-susceptible strain of C. lectularius. This study demonstrates that cuticle thickening is present within a pyrethroid-resistant strain of C. lectularius and that, even within a stable resistant strain, cuticle thickness will vary according to time-to-knockdown upon exposure to an insecticide. This response should thus be considered in future studies on the cuticle of insecticide-resistant bed bugs and, potentially, other insects. PMID:27073871

Cuticle Thickening in a Pyrethroid-Resistant Strain of the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Lilly, David G; Latham, Sharissa L; Webb, Cameron E; Doggett, Stephen L

2016-01-01

Thickening of the integument as a mechanism of resistance to insecticides is a well recognised phenomenon in the insect world and, in recent times, has been found in insects exhibiting pyrethroid-resistance. Resistance to pyrethroid insecticides in the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L., is widespread and has been frequently inferred as a reason for the pest's resurgence. Overexpression of cuticle depositing proteins has been demonstrated in pyrethroid-resistant bed bugs although, to date, no morphological analysis of the cuticle has been undertaken in order to confirm a phenotypic link. This paper describes examination of the cuticle thickness of a highly pyrethroid-resistant field strain collected in Sydney, Australia, in response to time-to-knockdown upon forced exposure to a pyrethroid insecticide. Mean cuticle thickness was positively correlated to time-to-knockdown, with significant differences observed between bugs knocked-down at 2 hours, 4 hours, and those still unaffected at 24 hours. Further analysis also demonstrated that the 24 hours survivors possessed a statistically significantly thicker cuticle when compared to a pyrethroid-susceptible strain of C. lectularius. This study demonstrates that cuticle thickening is present within a pyrethroid-resistant strain of C. lectularius and that, even within a stable resistant strain, cuticle thickness will vary according to time-to-knockdown upon exposure to an insecticide. This response should thus be considered in future studies on the cuticle of insecticide-resistant bed bugs and, potentially, other insects.

Hierarchical models of animal abundance and occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, R.M.

2006-01-01

Much of animal ecology is devoted to studies of abundance and occurrence of species, based on surveys of spatially referenced sample units. These surveys frequently yield sparse counts that are contaminated by imperfect detection, making direct inference about abundance or occurrence based on observational data infeasible. This article describes a flexible hierarchical modeling framework for estimation and inference about animal abundance and occurrence from survey data that are subject to imperfect detection. Within this framework, we specify models of abundance and detectability of animals at the level of the local populations defined by the sample units. Information at the level of the local population is aggregated by specifying models that describe variation in abundance and detection among sites. We describe likelihood-based and Bayesian methods for estimation and inference under the resulting hierarchical model. We provide two examples of the application of hierarchical models to animal survey data, the first based on removal counts of stream fish and the second based on avian quadrat counts. For both examples, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the models using the software WinBUGS.

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal the Pleistocene history of a semi-aquatic bug (Microvelia douglasi douglasi) in East Asia.

PubMed

Ye, Zhen; Zhu, Gengping; Chen, Pingping; Zhang, Danli; Bu, Wenjun

2014-06-01

This study investigated the Pleistocene history of a semi-aquatic bug, Microvelia douglasi douglasi Scott, 1874 (Hemiptera: Veliidae) in East Asia. We used M. douglasi douglasi as a model species to explore the effects of historical climatic fluctuations on montane semi-aquatic invertebrate species. Two hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENMs). First, we hypothesized that M. douglasi douglasi persisted in suitable habitats in southern Guizhou, southern Yunnan, Hainan, Taiwan and southeast China during the LIG. After that, the populations expanded (Hypothesis 1). As the spatial prediction in the LGM was significantly larger than in the LIG, we then hypothesized that the population expanded during the LIG to LGM transition (Hypothesis 2). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial data (COI+COII) and nuclear data (ITS1+5.8S+ITS2). Young lineages, relatively deep splits, lineage differentiation among mountain ranges in central, south and southwest China and high genetic diversities were observed in these suitable habitats. Evidence of mismatch distributions and neutrality tests indicate that a population expansion occurred in the late Pleistocene. The Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) revealed an unusual population expansion that likely happened during the cooling transition between LIG and LGM. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM, a finding that can profoundly improve phylogeographic research. The ecological requirements of M. douglasi douglasi, together with the geographical heterogeneity and climatic fluctuations of Pleistocene in East Asia, could have shaped this unusual demographic history. Our study contributes to our knowledge of semi-aquatic bug/invertebrate responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in East Asia. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Ability of bed bug-detecting canines to locate live bed bugs and viable bed bug eggs.

PubMed

Pfiester, Margie; Koehler, Philip G; Pereira, Roberto M

2008-08-01

The bed bug, Cimex lectularius L., like other bed bug species, is difficult to visually locate because it is cryptic. Detector dogs are useful for locating bed bugs because they use olfaction rather than vision. Dogs were trained to detect the bed bug (as few as one adult male or female) and viable bed bug eggs (five, collected 5-6 d after feeding) by using a modified food and verbal reward system. Their efficacy was tested with bed bugs and viable bed bug eggs placed in vented polyvinyl chloride containers. Dogs were able to discriminate bed bugs from Camponotus floridanus Buckley, Blattella germanica (L.), and Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar), with a 97.5% positive indication rate (correct indication of bed bugs when present) and 0% false positives (incorrect indication of bed bugs when not present). Dogs also were able to discriminate live bed bugs and viable bed bug eggs from dead bed bugs, cast skins, and feces, with a 95% positive indication rate and a 3% false positive rate on bed bug feces. In a controlled experiment in hotel rooms, dogs were 98% accurate in locating live bed bugs. A pseudoscent prepared from pentane extraction of bed bugs was recognized by trained dogs as bed bug scent (100% indication). The pseudoscent could be used to facilitate detector dog training and quality assurance programs. If trained properly, dogs can be used effectively to locate live bed bugs and viable bed bug eggs.

Moving in Parallel Toward a Modern Modeling Epistemology: Bayes Factors and Frequentist Modeling Methods.

PubMed

Rodgers, Joseph Lee

2016-01-01

The Bayesian-frequentist debate typically portrays these statistical perspectives as opposing views. However, both Bayesian and frequentist statisticians have expanded their epistemological basis away from a singular focus on the null hypothesis, to a broader perspective involving the development and comparison of competing statistical/mathematical models. For frequentists, statistical developments such as structural equation modeling and multilevel modeling have facilitated this transition. For Bayesians, the Bayes factor has facilitated this transition. The Bayes factor is treated in articles within this issue of Multivariate Behavioral Research. The current presentation provides brief commentary on those articles and more extended discussion of the transition toward a modern modeling epistemology. In certain respects, Bayesians and frequentists share common goals.

Bayesian informative dropout model for longitudinal binary data with random effects using conditional and joint modeling approaches.

PubMed

Chan, Jennifer S K

2016-05-01

Dropouts are common in longitudinal study. If the dropout probability depends on the missing observations at or after dropout, this type of dropout is called informative (or nonignorable) dropout (ID). Failure to accommodate such dropout mechanism into the model will bias the parameter estimates. We propose a conditional autoregressive model for longitudinal binary data with an ID model such that the probabilities of positive outcomes as well as the drop-out indicator in each occasion are logit linear in some covariates and outcomes. This model adopting a marginal model for outcomes and a conditional model for dropouts is called a selection model. To allow for the heterogeneity and clustering effects, the outcome model is extended to incorporate mixture and random effects. Lastly, the model is further extended to a novel model that models the outcome and dropout jointly such that their dependency is formulated through an odds ratio function. Parameters are estimated by a Bayesian approach implemented using the user-friendly Bayesian software WinBUGS. A methadone clinic dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed models. Result shows that the treatment time effect is still significant but weaker after allowing for an ID process in the data. Finally the effect of drop-out on parameter estimates is evaluated through simulation studies. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by a causal structure intervention?

PubMed

McNair, Simon; Feeney, Aidan

2015-02-01

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples' errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Stink bug species composition and relative abundance of the redbanded stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in soybean in the upper gulf coast Texas.

PubMed

Vyavhare, Suhas S; Way, Michael O; Medina, Raul F

2014-12-01

Stink bugs are the primary arthropod soybean pests in the southern United States. Historically, important stink bug species damaging soybeans in the southern United States included the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.), the green stink bug Chinavia hilaris (Say), and the brown stink bug Euschistus servus (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). The redbanded stink bug, Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood), has recently become an economic pest of soybean in the southern region of the United States, especially in Louisiana and Texas. Little is known about current stink bug species composition and relative abundance in Texan soybean agro-ecosystems. To fill this gap, commercial soybean fields in the Upper Gulf Coast of Texas were sampled weekly during the growing season using a sweep net throughout R2 (full flowering) to R7 (beginning maturity) from 2011 to 2013. Adults and nymphs (third, fourth, and fifth instars) of redbanded stink bug, southern green stink bug, green stink bug, and brown stink bug were counted per 25 sweeps. The relative abundance of redbanded stink bug was significantly higher than any other stink bug species throughout 2011-2013. Over 65% of the total population of major stink bugs collected during this period were redbanded stink bugs and ≍19% were southern green stink bugs. The highest redbanded stink bug densities and the highest ratio of redbanded stink bug nymphs to adults were recorded at R7. Results from this study show that redbanded stink bug has become the predominant stink bug species in soybean in the Upper Gulf Coast of Texas.

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

PubMed

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

Beyond P Values and Hypothesis Testing: Using the Minimum Bayes Factor to Teach Statistical Inference in Undergraduate Introductory Statistics Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Page, Robert; Satake, Eiki

2017-01-01

While interest in Bayesian statistics has been growing in statistics education, the treatment of the topic is still inadequate in both textbooks and the classroom. Because so many fields of study lead to careers that involve a decision-making process requiring an understanding of Bayesian methods, it is becoming increasingly clear that Bayesian…

Hierarchical spatial capture-recapture models: Modeling population density from stratified populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.

2014-01-01

Capture–recapture studies are often conducted on populations that are stratified by space, time or other factors. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial capture–recapture (SCR) modelling framework for stratified populations – when sampling occurs within multiple distinct spatial and temporal strata.We describe a hierarchical model that integrates distinct models for both the spatial encounter history data from capture–recapture sampling, and also for modelling variation in density among strata. We use an implementation of data augmentation to parameterize the model in terms of a latent categorical stratum or group membership variable, which provides a convenient implementation in popular BUGS software packages.We provide an example application to an experimental study involving small-mammal sampling on multiple trapping grids over multiple years, where the main interest is in modelling a treatment effect on population density among the trapping grids.Many capture–recapture studies involve some aspect of spatial or temporal replication that requires some attention to modelling variation among groups or strata. We propose a hierarchical model that allows explicit modelling of group or strata effects. Because the model is formulated for individual encounter histories and is easily implemented in the BUGS language and other free software, it also provides a general framework for modelling individual effects, such as are present in SCR models.

Bayes and the Law

PubMed Central

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel

2016-01-01

Although the last forty years has seen considerable growth in the use of statistics in legal proceedings, it is primarily classical statistical methods rather than Bayesian methods that have been used. Yet the Bayesian approach avoids many of the problems of classical statistics and is also well suited to a broader range of problems. This paper reviews the potential and actual use of Bayes in the law and explains the main reasons for its lack of impact on legal practice. These include misconceptions by the legal community about Bayes’ theorem, over-reliance on the use of the likelihood ratio and the lack of adoption of modern computational methods. We argue that Bayesian Networks (BNs), which automatically produce the necessary Bayesian calculations, provide an opportunity to address most concerns about using Bayes in the law. PMID:27398389

Bayes and the Law.

PubMed

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel

2016-06-01

Although the last forty years has seen considerable growth in the use of statistics in legal proceedings, it is primarily classical statistical methods rather than Bayesian methods that have been used. Yet the Bayesian approach avoids many of the problems of classical statistics and is also well suited to a broader range of problems. This paper reviews the potential and actual use of Bayes in the law and explains the main reasons for its lack of impact on legal practice. These include misconceptions by the legal community about Bayes' theorem, over-reliance on the use of the likelihood ratio and the lack of adoption of modern computational methods. We argue that Bayesian Networks (BNs), which automatically produce the necessary Bayesian calculations, provide an opportunity to address most concerns about using Bayes in the law.

Fisher, Neyman, and Bayes at FDA.

PubMed

Rubin, Donald B

2016-01-01

The wise use of statistical ideas in practice essentially requires some Bayesian thinking, in contrast to the classical rigid frequentist dogma. This dogma too often has seemed to influence the applications of statistics, even at agencies like the FDA. Greg Campbell was one of the most important advocates there for more nuanced modes of thought, especially Bayesian statistics. Because two brilliant statisticians, Ronald Fisher and Jerzy Neyman, are often credited with instilling the traditional frequentist approach in current practice, I argue that both men were actually seeking very Bayesian answers, and neither would have endorsed the rigid application of their ideas.

New applications of maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics in macromolecular crystallography.

PubMed

McCoy, Airlie J

2002-10-01

Maximum likelihood methods are well known to macromolecular crystallographers as the methods of choice for isomorphous phasing and structure refinement. Recently, the use of maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics has extended to the areas of molecular replacement and density modification, placing these methods on a stronger statistical foundation and making them more accurate and effective.

Applications of Bayesian Statistics to Problems in Gamma-Ray Bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meegan, Charles A.

1997-01-01

This presentation will describe two applications of Bayesian statistics to Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBS). The first attempts to quantify the evidence for a cosmological versus galactic origin of GRBs using only the observations of the dipole and quadrupole moments of the angular distribution of bursts. The cosmological hypothesis predicts isotropy, while the galactic hypothesis is assumed to produce a uniform probability distribution over positive values for these moments. The observed isotropic distribution indicates that the Bayes factor for the cosmological hypothesis over the galactic hypothesis is about 300. Another application of Bayesian statistics is in the estimation of chance associations of optical counterparts with galaxies. The Bayesian approach is preferred to frequentist techniques here because the Bayesian approach easily accounts for galaxy mass distributions and because one can incorporate three disjoint hypotheses: (1) bursts come from galactic centers, (2) bursts come from galaxies in proportion to luminosity, and (3) bursts do not come from external galaxies. This technique was used in the analysis of the optical counterpart to GRB970228.

EPA-Registered Bed Bug Products

MedlinePlus

... Bugs EPA Registered Bed Bug Products EPA-Registered Bed Bug Products Resources Bed Bug Main Page Top Ten ... Where you can use the pesticide Pesticide type Bed Bug Search Tool Enter the information as described in ...

A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-07-01

Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

A tutorial on Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of mixed binary-continuous outcomes with missing treatment effects.

PubMed

Gajic-Veljanoski, Olga; Cheung, Angela M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Tomlinson, George

2016-05-30

Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (BVMA) is a method of data synthesis that accounts for treatment effects measured on two outcomes. BVMA gives more precise estimates of the population mean and predicted values than two univariate random-effects meta-analyses (UVMAs). BVMA also addresses bias from incomplete reporting of outcomes. A few tutorials have covered technical details of BVMA of categorical or continuous outcomes. Limited guidance is available on how to analyze datasets that include trials with mixed continuous-binary outcomes where treatment effects on one outcome or the other are not reported. Given the advantages of Bayesian BVMA for handling missing outcomes, we present a tutorial for Bayesian BVMA of incompletely reported treatment effects on mixed bivariate outcomes. This step-by-step approach can serve as a model for our intended audience, the methodologist familiar with Bayesian meta-analysis, looking for practical advice on fitting bivariate models. To facilitate application of the proposed methods, we include our WinBUGS code. As an example, we use aggregate-level data from published trials to demonstrate the estimation of the effects of vitamin K and bisphosphonates on two correlated bone outcomes, fracture, and bone mineral density. We present datasets where reporting of the pairs of treatment effects on both outcomes was 'partially' complete (i.e., pairs completely reported in some trials), and we outline steps for modeling the incompletely reported data. To assess what is gained from the additional work required by BVMA, we compare the resulting estimates to those from separate UVMAs. We discuss methodological findings and make four recommendations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

A BAYESIAN STATISTICAL APPROACH FOR THE EVALUATION OF CMAQ

EPA Science Inventory

Bayesian statistical methods are used to evaluate Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations of sulfate aerosol over a section of the eastern US for 4-week periods in summer and winter 2001. The observed data come from two U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data ...

Teaching Bayesian Statistics in a Health Research Methodology Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pullenayegum, Eleanor M.; Thabane, Lehana

2009-01-01

Despite the appeal of Bayesian methods in health research, they are not widely used. This is partly due to a lack of courses in Bayesian methods at an appropriate level for non-statisticians in health research. Teaching such a course can be challenging because most statisticians have been taught Bayesian methods using a mathematical approach, and…

Nowcasting Cloud Fields for U.S. Air Force Special Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

application of Bayes’ Rule offers many advantages over Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and other commonly used statistical post-processing methods...reflectance and probability of cloud. A statistical post-processing technique is applied using Bayesian estimation to train the system from a set of past...nowcasting, low cloud forecasting, cloud reflectance, ISR, Bayesian estimation, statistical post-processing, machine learning 15. NUMBER OF PAGES

A two-component Bayesian mixture model to identify implausible gestational age.

PubMed

Mohammadian-Khoshnoud, Maryam; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Faradmal, Javad; Yavangi, Mahnaz

2016-01-01

Background: Birth weight and gestational age are two important variables in obstetric research. The primary measure of gestational age is based on a mother's recall of her last menstrual period. This recall may cause random or systematic errors. Therefore, the objective of this study is to utilize Bayesian mixture model in order to identify implausible gestational age. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, medical documents of 502 preterm infants born and hospitalized in Hamadan Fatemieh Hospital from 2009 to 2013 were gathered. Preterm infants were classified to less than 28 weeks and 28 to 31 weeks. A two-component Bayesian mixture model was utilized to identify implausible gestational age; the first component shows the probability of correct and the second one shows the probability of incorrect classification of gestational ages. The data were analyzed through OpenBUGS 3.2.2 and 'coda' package of R 3.1.1. Results: The mean (SD) of the second component of less than 28 weeks and 28 to 31 weeks were 1179 (0.0123) and 1620 (0.0074), respectively. These values were larger than the mean of the first component for both groups which were 815.9 (0.0123) and 1061 (0.0074), respectively. Conclusion: Errors occurred in recording the gestational ages of these two groups of preterm infants included recording the gestational age less than the actual value at birth. Therefore, developing scientific methods to correct these errors is essential to providing desirable health services and adjusting accurate health indicators.

Detection of Reduced Susceptibility to Chlorfenapyr- and Bifenthrin-Containing Products in Field Populations of the Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Ashbrook, Aaron R; Scharf, Michael E; Bennett, Gary W; Gondhalekar, Ameya D

2017-06-01

Insecticide resistance is a major impediment for effective control of Cimex lectularius L. Previous resistance detection studies with bed bugs have focused on certain pyrethroid, neonicotinoid, organochlorine, organophosphate, and carbamate insecticides. Within the pyrethroid class, resistance studies have mostly been limited to deltamethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin, and alpha- and beta-cyfluthrin. The goal of this study was to develop diagnostic concentration bioassays for assessing bed bug susceptibility levels to chlorfenapyr- and bifenthrin-containing products. First, glass vial and filter paper bioassay methods were compared for their utility in susceptibility monitoring. Statistical comparison of toxicity data between bioassays indicated that the vial assay was less confounded by assay susbtrate effects, required less insecticide, and was faster, especially for chlorfenapyr. Next, using vial diagnostic concentrations (LC99) for each insecticide, 10 laboratory-adapted field strains and the Harlan lab-susceptible strain were screened for susceptibility to chlorfenapyr and bifenthrin. The results of this study reveal recent bed bug susceptibility levels to certain chlorfenapyr- and bifenthrin-containing products. Reduced susceptibility was detected in three and five field strains to chlorfenapyr and bifenthrin, respectively. Detection of reduced susceptibility suggests that certain strains may be segregating toward greater chlorfenapyr and bifenthrin resistance. These results merit continuous resistance monitoring efforts to detect chlorfenapyr and bifenthrin susceptibility shifts. Additionally, to reduce insecticide selection pressures and delay resistance development, adoption of integrated bed bug control strategies that combine chemical and nonchemical methods is recommended. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

PubMed

Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

2016-02-15

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S.; Coc, A.

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We presentmore » astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.« less

BCM: toolkit for Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers.

PubMed

Thijssen, Bram; Dijkstra, Tjeerd M H; Heskes, Tom; Wessels, Lodewyk F A

2016-10-21

Computational models in biology are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty can be analyzed with Bayesian statistics, however, the sampling algorithms that are frequently used for calculating Bayesian statistical estimates are computationally demanding, and each algorithm has unique advantages and disadvantages. It is typically unclear, before starting an analysis, which algorithm will perform well on a given computational model. We present BCM, a toolkit for the Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers. It provides efficient, multithreaded implementations of eleven algorithms for sampling from posterior probability distributions and for calculating marginal likelihoods. BCM includes tools to simplify the process of model specification and scripts for visualizing the results. The flexible architecture allows it to be used on diverse types of biological computational models. In an example inference task using a model of the cell cycle based on ordinary differential equations, BCM is significantly more efficient than existing software packages, allowing more challenging inference problems to be solved. BCM represents an efficient one-stop-shop for computational modelers wishing to use sampler-based Bayesian statistics.

Bed Bugs FAQs

MedlinePlus

... Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us Parasites Home Bed Bugs FAQs Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On ... are bed bugs treated and prevented? What are bed bugs? Bed bugs ( Cimex lectularius ) are small, flat, parasitic ...

Fully Bayesian inference for structural MRI: application to segmentation and statistical analysis of T2-hypointensities.

PubMed

Schmidt, Paul; Schmid, Volker J; Gaser, Christian; Buck, Dorothea; Bührlen, Susanne; Förschler, Annette; Mühlau, Mark

2013-01-01

Aiming at iron-related T2-hypointensity, which is related to normal aging and neurodegenerative processes, we here present two practicable approaches, based on Bayesian inference, for preprocessing and statistical analysis of a complex set of structural MRI data. In particular, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to simulate posterior distributions. First, we rendered a segmentation algorithm that uses outlier detection based on model checking techniques within a Bayesian mixture model. Second, we rendered an analytical tool comprising a Bayesian regression model with smoothness priors (in the form of Gaussian Markov random fields) mitigating the necessity to smooth data prior to statistical analysis. For validation, we used simulated data and MRI data of 27 healthy controls (age: [Formula: see text]; range, [Formula: see text]). We first observed robust segmentation of both simulated T2-hypointensities and gray-matter regions known to be T2-hypointense. Second, simulated data and images of segmented T2-hypointensity were analyzed. We found not only robust identification of simulated effects but also a biologically plausible age-related increase of T2-hypointensity primarily within the dentate nucleus but also within the globus pallidus, substantia nigra, and red nucleus. Our results indicate that fully Bayesian inference can successfully be applied for preprocessing and statistical analysis of structural MRI data.

Health Information in Oromo (Afan Oromoo)

MedlinePlus

... Section Bed Bugs Bed Bug Control in Residences - English PDF Bed Bug Control in Residences - Afan Oromoo ( ... Department of Agriculture Vacuuming to Capture Bed Bugs - English PDF Vacuuming to Capture Bed Bugs - Afan Oromoo ( ...

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

A Bayesian pick-the-winner design in a randomized phase II clinical trial.

PubMed

Chen, Dung-Tsa; Huang, Po-Yu; Lin, Hui-Yi; Chiappori, Alberto A; Gabrilovich, Dmitry I; Haura, Eric B; Antonia, Scott J; Gray, Jhanelle E

2017-10-24

Many phase II clinical trials evaluate unique experimental drugs/combinations through multi-arm design to expedite the screening process (early termination of ineffective drugs) and to identify the most effective drug (pick the winner) to warrant a phase III trial. Various statistical approaches have been developed for the pick-the-winner design but have been criticized for lack of objective comparison among the drug agents. We developed a Bayesian pick-the-winner design by integrating a Bayesian posterior probability with Simon two-stage design in a randomized two-arm clinical trial. The Bayesian posterior probability, as the rule to pick the winner, is defined as probability of the response rate in one arm higher than in the other arm. The posterior probability aims to determine the winner when both arms pass the second stage of the Simon two-stage design. When both arms are competitive (i.e., both passing the second stage), the Bayesian posterior probability performs better to correctly identify the winner compared with the Fisher exact test in the simulation study. In comparison to a standard two-arm randomized design, the Bayesian pick-the-winner design has a higher power to determine a clear winner. In application to two studies, the approach is able to perform statistical comparison of two treatment arms and provides a winner probability (Bayesian posterior probability) to statistically justify the winning arm. We developed an integrated design that utilizes Bayesian posterior probability, Simon two-stage design, and randomization into a unique setting. It gives objective comparisons between the arms to determine the winner.

Relative risk for HIV in India - An estimate using conditional auto-regressive models with Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Kandhasamy, Chandrasekaran; Ghosh, Kaushik

2017-02-01

Indian states are currently classified into HIV-risk categories based on the observed prevalence counts, percentage of infected attendees in antenatal clinics, and percentage of infected high-risk individuals. This method, however, does not account for the spatial dependence among the states nor does it provide any measure of statistical uncertainty. We provide an alternative model-based approach to address these issues. Our method uses Poisson log-normal models having various conditional autoregressive structures with neighborhood-based and distance-based weight matrices and incorporates all available covariate information. We use R and WinBugs software to fit these models to the 2011 HIV data. Based on the Deviance Information Criterion, the convolution model using distance-based weight matrix and covariate information on female sex workers, literacy rate and intravenous drug users is found to have the best fit. The relative risk of HIV for the various states is estimated using the best model and the states are then classified into the risk categories based on these estimated values. An HIV risk map of India is constructed based on these results. The choice of the final model suggests that an HIV control strategy which focuses on the female sex workers, intravenous drug users and literacy rate would be most effective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collaborative Strategy on Bed Bugs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Collaborative Strategy on Bed Bugs was developed by the Federal Bed Bug Workgroup to clarify the federal role in bed bug control and highlight ways that government, community, academia and private industry can work together on bed bug issues.

Bayesian Statistics in Educational Research: A Look at the Current State of Affairs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

König, Christoph; van de Schoot, Rens

2018-01-01

The ability of a scientific discipline to build cumulative knowledge depends on its predominant method of data analysis. A steady accumulation of knowledge requires approaches which allow researchers to consider results from comparable prior research. Bayesian statistics is especially relevant for establishing a cumulative scientific discipline,…

Nonparametric Bayesian predictive distributions for future order statistics

Treesearch

Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

1999-01-01

We derive the predictive distribution for a specified order statistic, determined from a future random sample, under a Dirichlet process prior. Two variants of the approach are treated and some limiting cases studied. A practical application to monitoring the strength of lumber is discussed including choices of prior expectation and comparisons made to a Bayesian...

Bayesian truthing and experimental validation in homeland security and defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jannson, Tomasz; Forrester, Thomas; Wang, Wenjian; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Pradhan, Ranjit

2014-05-01

In this paper we discuss relations between Bayesian Truthing (experimental validation), Bayesian statistics, and Binary Sensing in the context of selected Homeland Security and Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) optical and nonoptical application scenarios. The basic Figure of Merit (FoM) is Positive Predictive Value (PPV), as well as false positives and false negatives. By using these simple binary statistics, we can analyze, classify, and evaluate a broad variety of events including: ISR; natural disasters; QC; and terrorism-related, GIS-related, law enforcement-related, and other C3I events.

Bayesian Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliner, M.

2017-12-01

Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

Testing a Threshold-Based Bed Bug Management Approach in Apartment Buildings.

PubMed

Singh, Narinderpal; Wang, Changlu; Zha, Chen; Cooper, Richard; Robson, Mark

2017-07-26

We tested a threshold-based bed bug ( Cimex lectularius L.) management approach with the goal of achieving elimination with minimal or no insecticide application. Thirty-two bed bug infested apartments were identified. These apartments were divided into four treatment groups based on apartment size and initial bed bug count, obtained through a combination of visual inspection and bed bug monitors: I- Non-chemical only in apartments with 1-12 bed bug count, II- Chemical control only in apartments with 1-12 bed bug count, III- Non-chemical and chemical control in apartments with >12 bed bug count, and IV- Chemical control only in apartments with ≥11 bed bug count. All apartments were monitored or treated once every two weeks for a maximum of 28 wk. Treatment I eliminated bed bugs in a similar amount of time to treatment II. Time to eliminate bed bugs was similar between treatment III and IV but required significantly less insecticide spray in treatment III than that in treatment IV. A threshold-based management approach (non-chemical only or non-chemical and chemical) can eliminate bed bugs in a similar amount of time, using little to no pesticide compared to a chemical only approach.

Efficacy of three different steamers for control of bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L.).

PubMed

Wang, Desen; Wang, Changlu; Wang, Guohong; Zha, Chen; Eiden, Amanda L; Cooper, Richard

2018-04-15

Bed bugs, Cimex lectularius L., have become one of the most difficult urban pests to control. Steam treatment is reported to be an effective method to kill bed bugs and is considered to be an important component of bed bug integrated pest management (IPM). We evaluated and compared the efficacy of two affordable consumer-grade commercial steamers to a commonly used professional-grade steamer for killing bed bugs. In laboratory experiments, the consumer-grade steamer at an affordable price achieved the same high control efficacy as the professional-grade steamer for treating bed bugs exposed on mattresses (100% bed bug mortality), located beneath a fabric cover (>89% bed bug mortality), or hiding in cracks (100% bed bug mortality). Bed bugs located behind a leather cover did not suffer significant mortality from steam treatment regardless of the type of steamers used and treatment duration. Proper use of steamers can kill all life stages of bed bugs. Affordable consumer-grade steamers are as effective as professional-grade steam machines for eliminating bed bugs resting on mattresses, hiding behind fabric materials, or in cracks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Testing a Threshold-Based Bed Bug Management Approach in Apartment Buildings

PubMed Central

Singh, Narinderpal; Zha, Chen; Cooper, Richard; Robson, Mark

2017-01-01

We tested a threshold-based bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) management approach with the goal of achieving elimination with minimal or no insecticide application. Thirty-two bed bug infested apartments were identified. These apartments were divided into four treatment groups based on apartment size and initial bed bug count, obtained through a combination of visual inspection and bed bug monitors: I- Non-chemical only in apartments with 1–12 bed bug count, II- Chemical control only in apartments with 1–12 bed bug count, III- Non-chemical and chemical control in apartments with >12 bed bug count, and IV- Chemical control only in apartments with ≥11 bed bug count. All apartments were monitored or treated once every two weeks for a maximum of 28 wk. Treatment I eliminated bed bugs in a similar amount of time to treatment II. Time to eliminate bed bugs was similar between treatment III and IV but required significantly less insecticide spray in treatment III than that in treatment IV. A threshold-based management approach (non-chemical only or non-chemical and chemical) can eliminate bed bugs in a similar amount of time, using little to no pesticide compared to a chemical only approach. PMID:28933720

Lygus bugs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The tarnished plant bug, Lygus lineolaris, and the western tarnished plant bug, L. hesperus (Hemiptera: Miridae), are pests of lentil in western USA. Feeding Lygus bugs produces depressed, chalk-colored lesions (chalky spot) on the lentil seeds. These bugs are pests of lentil throughout the Palous...

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

DOE PAGES

Josephson, Alexander J.; Gaffin, Neal D.; Smith, Sean T.; ...

2017-08-22

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumptionmore » model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.« less

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josephson, Alexander J.; Gaffin, Neal D.; Smith, Sean T.

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumptionmore » model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.« less

Nosema maddoxi sp. nov. (Microsporidia, Nosematidae), a Widespread Pathogen of the Green Stink Bug Chinavia hilaris (Say) and the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Halyomorpha halys (Stål)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

AWe describe a unique microsporidian species that infects the green stink bug, Chinavia hilaris, the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, the brown stink bug, Euschistus servus, and the dusky stink bug, Euschistus tristigmus. All life stages are unikaryotic, but analysis of the consensus s...

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Role of Vision and Mechanoreception in Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius L. Behavior

PubMed Central

Singh, Narinderpal; Wang, Changlu; Cooper, Richard

2015-01-01

The role of olfactory cues such as carbon dioxide, pheromones, and kairomones in bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. behavior has been demonstrated. However, the role of vision and mechanoreception in bed bug behavior is poorly understood. We investigated bed bug vision by determining their responses to different colors, vertical objects, and their ability to detect colors and vertical objects under low and complete dark conditions. Results show black and red paper harborages are preferred compared to yellow, green, blue, and white harborages. A bed bug trapping device with a black or red exterior surface was significantly more attractive to bed bugs than that with a white exterior surface. Bed bugs exhibited strong orientation behavior toward vertical objects. The height (15 vs. 30 cm tall) and color (brown vs. black) of the vertical object had no significant effect on orientation behavior of bed bugs. Bed bugs could differentiate color and detect vertical objects at very low background light conditions, but not in complete darkness. Bed bug preference to different substrate textures (mechanoreception) was also explored. Bed bugs preferred dyed tape compared to painted tape, textured painted plastic, and felt. These results revealed that substrate color, presence of vertical objects, and substrate texture affect host-seeking and harborage-searching behavior of bed bugs. Bed bugs may use a combination of vision, mechanoreception, and chemoreception to locate hosts and seek harborages. PMID:25748041

Role of vision and mechanoreception in bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. behavior.

PubMed

Singh, Narinderpal; Wang, Changlu; Cooper, Richard

2015-01-01

The role of olfactory cues such as carbon dioxide, pheromones, and kairomones in bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. behavior has been demonstrated. However, the role of vision and mechanoreception in bed bug behavior is poorly understood. We investigated bed bug vision by determining their responses to different colors, vertical objects, and their ability to detect colors and vertical objects under low and complete dark conditions. Results show black and red paper harborages are preferred compared to yellow, green, blue, and white harborages. A bed bug trapping device with a black or red exterior surface was significantly more attractive to bed bugs than that with a white exterior surface. Bed bugs exhibited strong orientation behavior toward vertical objects. The height (15 vs. 30 cm tall) and color (brown vs. black) of the vertical object had no significant effect on orientation behavior of bed bugs. Bed bugs could differentiate color and detect vertical objects at very low background light conditions, but not in complete darkness. Bed bug preference to different substrate textures (mechanoreception) was also explored. Bed bugs preferred dyed tape compared to painted tape, textured painted plastic, and felt. These results revealed that substrate color, presence of vertical objects, and substrate texture affect host-seeking and harborage-searching behavior of bed bugs. Bed bugs may use a combination of vision, mechanoreception, and chemoreception to locate hosts and seek harborages.

Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

2016-01-01

Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

The Application of Bayesian Analysis to Issues in Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Frimer, Jeremy A.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the concepts and methods of Bayesian statistical analysis, which can offer innovative and powerful solutions to some challenging analytical problems that characterize developmental research. In this article, we demonstrate the utility of Bayesian analysis, explain its unique adeptness in some circumstances, address some…

Bringing Up Girls in Science (BUGS): The Effectiveness of an Afterschool Environmental Science Program for Increasing Female Students' Interest in Science Careers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyler-Wood, Tandra; Ellison, Amber; Lim, Okyoung; Periathiruvadi, Sita

2012-02-01

Bringing Up Girls in Science (BUGS) was an afterschool program for 4th and 5th grade girls that provided authentic learning experiences in environmental science as well as valuable female mentoring opportunities in an effort to increase participants' academic achievement in science. BUGS participants demonstrated significantly greater amounts of gain in science knowledge as measured by the Iowa Test of Basic Skills in Science (ITBS-S). The original BUGS participants and contrasts have now completed high school and entered college, allowing researchers to assess the long-term impact of the BUGS program. Fourteen former BUGS participants completed two instruments to assess their perceptions of science and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) careers. Their results were compared to four contrast groups composed entirely of females: 12 former BUGS contrasts, 10 college science majors, 10 non-science majors, and 9 current STEM professionals. Results indicate that BUGS participants have higher perceptions of science careers than BUGS contrasts. There were no significant differences between BUGS participants, Science Majors, and STEM professionals in their perceptions of science and STEM careers, whereas the BUGS contrast group was significantly lower than BUGS participants, Science Majors, and STEM Professionals. Additional results and implications are discussed within.

Species composition and seasonal abundance of stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Louisiana soybean.

PubMed

Temple, J H; Davis, J A; Micinski, S; Hardke, J T; Price, P; Leonard, B R

2013-08-01

In Louisiana during the last decade, the redbanded stink bug, Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood), has become a significant and yield-limiting pest of soybean. The redbanded stink bug was previously reported in the United States in 1892, but was never considered an economically important pest until recently. Soybeans representing four maturity groups (MG) III, IV, V, and VI were sampled weekly from beginning bloom (R1) to physiological maturity (R8) during 2008-2010 at five locations across Louisiana to determine the Pentatomidae composition. In total, 13,146 stink bugs were captured and subsequently identified to species. The predominant species included the redbanded stink bug (54.2%); southern green stink bug (27.1%), Nezara viridula L.; brown stink bug (6.6%), Euschistus servus (Say); and green stink bug (5.5%), Acrosternum hilare (Say). Redbanded stink bug comprised the largest percentage of the complex collected at four of the five survey sites. Numbers exceeding action thresholds of this stink bug complex were only detected during R4 to R7 growth stages. Redbanded stink bug accounted for the largest percentage of the stink bug complex in early maturing soybean varieties (MG III [86%] and IV [60%]) and declined in later maturing soybeans (MG V [54%] and VI [50%]). The redbanded stink bug was initially identified in southern Louisiana during 2000 and had been reported in all soybean producing regions in Louisiana by 2006. This survey is the first to report the redbanded stink bug as a predominant pest of soybeans from locations within the United States.

Bayesian theories of conditioning in a changing world.

PubMed

Courville, Aaron C; Daw, Nathaniel D; Touretzky, David S

2006-07-01

The recent flowering of Bayesian approaches invites the re-examination of classic issues in behavior, even in areas as venerable as Pavlovian conditioning. A statistical account can offer a new, principled interpretation of behavior, and previous experiments and theories can inform many unexplored aspects of the Bayesian enterprise. Here we consider one such issue: the finding that surprising events provoke animals to learn faster. We suggest that, in a statistical account of conditioning, surprise signals change and therefore uncertainty and the need for new learning. We discuss inference in a world that changes and show how experimental results involving surprise can be interpreted from this perspective, and also how, thus understood, these phenomena help constrain statistical theories of animal and human learning.

Mark-Release-Recapture Reveals Extensive Movement of Bed Bugs (Cimex lectularius L.) within and between Apartments

PubMed Central

Cooper, Richard; Wang, Changlu; Singh, Narinderpal

2015-01-01

Understanding movement and dispersal of the common bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) under field conditions is important in the control of infestations and for managing the spread of bed bugs to new locations. We investigated bed bug movement within and between apartments using mark-release-recapture (m-r-r) technique combined with apartment-wide monitoring using pitfall-style interceptors. Bed bugs were collected, marked, and released in six apartments. The distribution of marked and unmarked bed bugs in these apartments and their 24 neighboring units were monitored over 32 days. Extensive movement of marked bed bugs within and between apartments occurred regardless of the number of bed bugs released or presence/absence of a host. Comparison of marked and unmarked bed bug distributions confirms that the extensive bed bug activity observed was not an artifact of the m-r-r technique used. Marked bed bugs were recovered in apartments neighboring five of six m-r-r apartments. Their dispersal rates at 14 or 15 d were 0.0–5.0%. The estimated number of bed bugs per apartment in the six m-r-r apartments was 2,433–14,291 at 4–7 d after release. Longevity of bed bugs in the absence of a host was recorded in a vacant apartment. Marked large nymphs (3rd– 5th instar), adult females, and adult males continued to be recovered up to 57, 113, and 134 d after host absence, respectively. Among the naturally existing unmarked bed bugs, unfed small nymphs (1st– 2nd instar) were recovered up to 134 d; large nymphs and adults were still found at 155 d when the study ended. Our findings provide important insight into the behavioral ecology of bed bugs in infested apartments and have significant implications in regards to eradication programs and managing the spread of bed bugs within multi-occupancy dwellings. PMID:26352145

Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Snehamoy

2014-01-01

This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Bed Bugs (Cimex lectularius) as Vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi

PubMed Central

Salazar, Renzo; Castillo-Neyra, Ricardo; Tustin, Aaron W.; Borrini-Mayorí, Katty; Náquira, César; Levy, Michael Z.

2015-01-01

Populations of the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius, have recently undergone explosive growth. Bed bugs share many important traits with triatomine insects, but it remains unclear whether these similarities include the ability to transmit Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiologic agent of Chagas disease. Here, we show efficient and bidirectional transmission of T. cruzi between hosts and bed bugs in a laboratory environment. Most bed bugs that fed on experimentally infected mice acquired the parasite. A majority of previously uninfected mice became infected after a period of cohabitation with exposed bed bugs. T. cruzi was also transmitted to mice after the feces of infected bed bugs were applied directly to broken host skin. Quantitative bed bug defecation measures were similar to those of important triatomine vectors. Our findings suggest that the common bed bug may be a competent vector of T. cruzi and could pose a risk for vector-borne transmission of Chagas disease. PMID:25404068

Bed bugs, public health, and social justice: Part 2, An opinion survey.

PubMed

Eddy, Christopher; Jones, Susan C

2011-04-01

Bed bug infestations have resurged globally, nationally, and locally, yet the public health community in the U.S. has yet to mount a coordinated response to the escalating bed bug problem. Surveys of attendees at the 2009 National Environmental Health Association Annual Educational Conference & Exhibition, 2009 Ohio Association of Health Commissioners Fall Conference, 2009 Central Ohio Bed Bug Summit, and 2010 Hamilton County Council on Aging Annual Conference were conducted to gauge opinions about bed bugs. Survey results revealed that 90% of all respondents considered bed bugs to be a public health concern, and 73% indicated that bed bugs pose an environmental justice concern. These findings, which indicate that bed bugs are an inescapable public health mandate with environmental justice undertones, should rally public health agencies at federal, state, and local levels to respond with authority of agency to the escalating bed bug problem.

Empirical Evaluation of Hunk Metrics as Bug Predictors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferzund, Javed; Ahsan, Syed Nadeem; Wotawa, Franz

Reducing the number of bugs is a crucial issue during software development and maintenance. Software process and product metrics are good indicators of software complexity. These metrics have been used to build bug predictor models to help developers maintain the quality of software. In this paper we empirically evaluate the use of hunk metrics as predictor of bugs. We present a technique for bug prediction that works at smallest units of code change called hunks. We build bug prediction models using random forests, which is an efficient machine learning classifier. Hunk metrics are used to train the classifier and each hunk metric is evaluated for its bug prediction capabilities. Our classifier can classify individual hunks as buggy or bug-free with 86 % accuracy, 83 % buggy hunk precision and 77% buggy hunk recall. We find that history based and change level hunk metrics are better predictors of bugs than code level hunk metrics.

Bugging forecast: unknown, disliked, occasionally intimate. Bed bugs in Germany meet unprepared people.

PubMed

Seidel, Conrad; Reinhardt, Klaus

2013-01-01

Bed bugs appear to be feared more than vector insects and other household pests. The reasons for this exaggerated fear are not fully understood. One hypothesis is that the folk knowledge on recognising and controlling bed bugs decreased as bed bugs became rarer in the 1960s and led to irrational perceptions. Here, we examine people's ability to recognise a bed bug and their response what to do in case of an infestation. We found that 13% of a sample of 391 people in four large German cities recognised a bed bug; 15% of all respondents would call a pest controller in case of bed bug infestation. This results in the pessimistic estimate that 97% of all early-stage infestations could go untreated. We discuss additional scenarios. The effectiveness of efforts to educate people about the presence of bed bugs has never been tested, but our sample is useful to guide future studies. We found three sources of information were associated with increased recognition rates of bed bugs: a) previous contacts with bed bugs (60% recognition), b) knowledge from friends or relatives (25%) and school or education courses (15%). By contrast, people who heard of bed bugs from television, print media or the Internet showed reduced recognition rates. We propose that the former factors be tested for educational interventions. In Germany, the bed bug is an estranged creature to many people, a fact that seems to hinder rational approaches to their control.

Bugging Forecast: Unknown, Disliked, Occasionally Intimate. Bed Bugs in Germany Meet Unprepared People

PubMed Central

Seidel, Conrad; Reinhardt, Klaus

2013-01-01

Bed bugs appear to be feared more than vector insects and other household pests. The reasons for this exaggerated fear are not fully understood. One hypothesis is that the folk knowledge on recognising and controlling bed bugs decreased as bed bugs became rarer in the 1960s and led to irrational perceptions. Here, we examine people’s ability to recognise a bed bug and their response what to do in case of an infestation. We found that 13% of a sample of 391 people in four large German cities recognised a bed bug; 15% of all respondents would call a pest controller in case of bed bug infestation. This results in the pessimistic estimate that 97% of all early-stage infestations could go untreated. We discuss additional scenarios. The effectiveness of efforts to educate people about the presence of bed bugs has never been tested, but our sample is useful to guide future studies. We found three sources of information were associated with increased recognition rates of bed bugs: a) previous contacts with bed bugs (60% recognition), b) knowledge from friends or relatives (25%) and school or education courses (15%). By contrast, people who heard of bed bugs from television, print media or the Internet showed reduced recognition rates. We propose that the former factors be tested for educational interventions. In Germany, the bed bug is an estranged creature to many people, a fact that seems to hinder rational approaches to their control. PMID:23300947

Repellency of selected chemicals against the bed bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Wang, Changlu; Lü, Lihua; Zhang, Aijun; Liu, Chaofeng

2013-12-01

In recent years, the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), became a major public health concern in urban communities. Bed bugs are notoriously difficult to control, and their bites are not tolerated by most people. The public has an urgent need for materials and methods to reduce bed bug introduction and bites during work, travel, or sleep. A repellent product will help achieve these goals by discouraging and preventing bed bugs from moving to a protected area. We evaluated the repellency of three commercially available insect repellent or control materials and five nonregistered materials with the goal of identifying safe and effective bed bug repellents. The two commercial repellent products that contained 7% picaridin or 0.5% permethrin had little repellency against bed bugs. N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET), the most commonly used insect repellent, provided a high level of repellency against bed bugs. When a host cue (carbon dioxide) was present, the minimum DEET concentration to repel > or = 94% of the bed bugs for a9-h period was 10%. The longevity of repellency of DEET was concentration dependent. At 25% concentration, DEET-treated fabric surface remained highly repellent to bed bugs for a 14-d period. However, DEET has a strong smell and dissolves certain plastic materials. Therefore, we evaluated several odorless, noncorrosive, and potentially effective repellents. Isolongifolenone and isolongifolanone, two natural products and recently reported insect repellents, exhibited strong repellent property against bed bugs but at significantly lower levels than DEET. Three novel potential repellent compounds discovered by Bedoukian Research Inc. (Danbury, CT) exhibited similar level of repellency and longevity as DEET for repelling bed bugs. These nonirritant and odorless compounds are promising candidates as alternatives to DEET for reducing the spread of bed bugs and bed bug bites.

Bayesian models based on test statistics for multiple hypothesis testing problems.

PubMed

Ji, Yuan; Lu, Yiling; Mills, Gordon B

2008-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing that is routinely encountered in bioinformatics research, such as the differential gene expression analysis. Our algorithm is based on modeling the distributions of test statistics under both null and alternative hypotheses. We substantially reduce the complexity of the process of defining posterior model probabilities by modeling the test statistics directly instead of modeling the full data. Computationally, we apply a Bayesian FDR approach to control the number of rejections of null hypotheses. To check if our model assumptions for the test statistics are valid for various bioinformatics experiments, we also propose a simple graphical model-assessment tool. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance of our models and the utility of the model-assessment tool. In the end, we apply the proposed methodology to an siRNA screening and a gene expression experiment.

Introduction to Bayesian statistical approaches to compositional analyses of transgenic crops 1. Model validation and setting the stage.

PubMed

Harrison, Jay M; Breeze, Matthew L; Harrigan, George G

2011-08-01

Statistical comparisons of compositional data generated on genetically modified (GM) crops and their near-isogenic conventional (non-GM) counterparts typically rely on classical significance testing. This manuscript presents an introduction to Bayesian methods for compositional analysis along with recommendations for model validation. The approach is illustrated using protein and fat data from two herbicide tolerant GM soybeans (MON87708 and MON87708×MON89788) and a conventional comparator grown in the US in 2008 and 2009. Guidelines recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in conducting Bayesian analyses of clinical studies on medical devices were followed. This study is the first Bayesian approach to GM and non-GM compositional comparisons. The evaluation presented here supports a conclusion that a Bayesian approach to analyzing compositional data can provide meaningful and interpretable results. We further describe the importance of method validation and approaches to model checking if Bayesian approaches to compositional data analysis are to be considered viable by scientists involved in GM research and regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health Information in Amharic (Amarɨñña / አማርኛ )

MedlinePlus

... Section Bed Bugs Bed Bug Control in Residences - English PDF Bed Bug Control in Residences - Amarɨñña / አማርኛ ( ... Department of Agriculture Vacuuming to Capture Bed Bugs - English PDF Vacuuming to Capture Bed Bugs - Amarɨñña / አማርኛ ( ...

Survival and Transstadial Persistence of Trypanosoma cruzi in the bed bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Blakely, Brittny N; Hanson, Stephen F; Romero, Alvaro

2018-05-04

Bed bug populations are increasing around the world at an alarming rate and have become a major public health concern. The appearance of bed bug populations in areas where Chagas disease is endemic raises questions about the role of these insects in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease. In a series of laboratory evaluations, bed bug adults and nymphs were experimentally fed with T. cruzi-infected blood to assess the ability of T. cruzi to survive inside the bed bug and throughout the insect's molting process. Live T. cruzi were observed in gut contents of experimentally infected bed bug adults via light microscopy and the identity of the parasite was confirmed via polymerase chain reaction analysis. T. cruzi persisted at least 97-d postinfection in adult bed bugs. Nymphal stage bed bugs that were infected with T. cruzi maintained the parasite after molting, indicating that transstadial passage of T. cruzi in bed bugs took place. This report provides further evidence of acquisition, maintenance, and for the first time, transstadial persistence of T. cruzi in bed bugs.

Bed Bug Infestations in an Urban Environment

PubMed Central

Svoboda, Tomislav J.; De Jong, Iain J.; Kabasele, Karl J.; Gogosis, Evie

2005-01-01

Until recently, bed bugs have been considered uncommon in the industrialized world. This study determined the extent of reemerging bed bug infestations in homeless shelters and other locations in Toronto, Canada. Toronto Public Health documented complaints of bed bug infestations from 46 locations in 2003, most commonly apartments (63%), shelters (15%), and rooming houses (11%). Pest control operators in Toronto (N = 34) reported treating bed bug infestations at 847 locations in 2003, most commonly single-family dwellings (70%), apartments (18%), and shelters (8%). Bed bug infestations were reported at 20 (31%) of 65 homeless shelters. At 1 affected shelter, 4% of residents reported having bed bug bites. Bed bug infestations can have an adverse effect on health and quality of life in the general population, particularly among homeless persons living in shelters. PMID:15829190

A preliminary evaluation of the potential of Beauveria bassiana for bed bug control.

PubMed

Barbarin, Alexis M; Jenkins, Nina E; Rajotte, Edwin G; Thomas, Matthew B

2012-09-15

Residual biopesticide treatments of Beauveria bassiana were tested against the bed bug Cimex lectularius. An oil formulation of conidia was applied to different substrates. Bed bugs were exposed for 1 h, transferred to an unsprayed environment and monitored for mortality. Separate bioassays evaluated the effect of bed bug strain, sex, life stage, and exposure substrate on mortality. Rapid mortality was observed in all bioassays, with bed bugs exposed to treated jersey knit cotton dying most rapidly. A further assay demonstrated efficient autodissemination of conidia from exposed bed bugs to unexposed bed bugs within artificial harborages. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of iconicity of visual displays on statistical reasoning: evidence in favor of the null hypothesis.

PubMed

Sirota, Miroslav; Kostovičová, Lenka; Juanchich, Marie

2014-08-01

Knowing which properties of visual displays facilitate statistical reasoning bears practical and theoretical implications. Therefore, we studied the effect of one property of visual diplays - iconicity (i.e., the resemblance of a visual sign to its referent) - on Bayesian reasoning. Two main accounts of statistical reasoning predict different effect of iconicity on Bayesian reasoning. The ecological-rationality account predicts a positive iconicity effect, because more highly iconic signs resemble more individuated objects, which tap better into an evolutionary-designed frequency-coding mechanism that, in turn, facilitates Bayesian reasoning. The nested-sets account predicts a null iconicity effect, because iconicity does not affect the salience of a nested-sets structure-the factor facilitating Bayesian reasoning processed by a general reasoning mechanism. In two well-powered experiments (N = 577), we found no support for a positive iconicity effect across different iconicity levels that were manipulated in different visual displays (meta-analytical overall effect: log OR = -0.13, 95% CI [-0.53, 0.28]). A Bayes factor analysis provided strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis-the null iconicity effect. Thus, these findings corroborate the nested-sets rather than the ecological-rationality account of statistical reasoning.

A Bayesian Approach for Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Pegylated Interferon α-2a in Hepatitis C Patients.

PubMed

Saleh, Mohammad I

2017-11-01

Pegylated interferon α-2a (PEG-IFN-α-2a) is an antiviral drug used for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study describes the population pharmacokinetics of PEG-IFN-α-2a in hepatitis C patients using a Bayesian approach. A possible association between patient characteristics and pharmacokinetic parameters is also explored. A Bayesian population pharmacokinetic modeling approach, using WinBUGS version 1.4.3, was applied to a cohort of patients (n = 292) with chronic HCV infection. Data were obtained from two phase III studies sponsored by Hoffmann-La Roche. Demographic and clinical information were evaluated as possible predictors of pharmacokinetic parameters during model development. A one-compartment model with an additive error best fitted the data, and a total of 2271 PEG-IFN-α-2a measurements from 292 subjects were analyzed using the proposed population pharmacokinetic model. Sex was identified as a predictor of PEG-IFN-α-2a clearance, and hemoglobin baseline level was identified as a predictor of PEG-IFN-α-2a volume of distribution. A population pharmacokinetic model of PEG-IFN-α-2a in patients with chronic HCV infection was presented in this study. The proposed model can be used to optimize PEG-IFN-α-2a dosing in patients with chronic HCV infection. Optimal PEG-IFN-α-2a selection is important to maximize response and/or to avoid potential side effects such as thrombocytopenia and neutropenia. NV15942 and NV15801.

Bed Bugs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Prevent, identify, and treat bed bug infestations using EPA’s step-by-step guides, based on IPM principles. Find pesticides approved for bed bug control, check out the information clearinghouse, and dispel bed bug myths.

A bioassay for studying behavioural responses of the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) to bed bug-derived volatiles.

PubMed

Weeks, E N I; Logan, J G; Gezan, S A; Woodcock, C M; Birkett, M A; Pickett, J A; Cameron, M M

2011-02-01

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), has recently re-emerged in increasing numbers, distribution and intensity of infestation in many countries. Current control relies on the application of residual pesticides; but, due to the development of insecticide resistance, there is a need for new tools and techniques. Semiochemicals (behaviour and physiology modifying chemicals) could be exploited for management of bed bugs. However, in order to identify semiochemicals that can be utilised in monitoring or control, a suitable olfactometer is needed that enables the study of the responses of bed bugs to volatile chemicals. Previous studies have used olfactometers that do not separate olfactory responses from responses to physical contact. In this study, a still-air olfactometer was used to measure behavioural responses to different bed bug-derived volatiles presented in an odour pot. Bed bugs were significantly more likely to visit the area above the odour pot first, and more frequently, in the presence of volatiles from bed bug-exposed paper but not in the presence of volatiles from conspecific bed bugs. Bed bug activity was found to be dependent on the presence of the volatiles from bed bug-exposed paper, the time during the scotophase and the sex of the insect being tested. The still-air olfactometer could be used to test putative semiochemicals, which would allow an understanding of their behavioural role in bed bug ecology. Ultimately, this could lead to the identification of new semiochemical tools for bed bug monitoring and control.

Tracking bed bugs (Cimex lectularius): a study of the effect of physiological and extrinsic factors on the response to bed bug-derived volatiles.

PubMed

Weeks, E N I; Logan, J G; Birkett, M A; Pickett, J A; Cameron, M M

2013-02-01

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius, feeds on the blood of mammal and bird hosts, and is a pest of global importance. Semiochemicals are chemicals involved in animal communication that may affect behaviour and/or physiology. Attractive semiochemicals that play a role in mediating bed bug behaviour could be exploited for the development of a highly effective novel monitoring device. Tracking software was used to record the response of bed bugs to volatiles from paper previously exposed to conspecific bugs in a still-air olfactometer illuminated by infrared lights, through a variety of activity variables. The effect of time of day as an extrinsic factor, and sex, stage, mating status and nutritional status as physiological factors on the response of bed bugs to the volatiles was examined. Bed bugs of both sexes and all stages responded to the volatiles from bed bug-exposed papers, showing significant attraction and orientation towards the volatile source whether they were starved or engorged. Confirmation that the physiological factors examined do not affect the response of bed bugs to the volatiles from bed bug-exposed papers provides evidence that these bed bug-derived volatiles contain aggregation cues, as semiochemicals that promote aggregation should by definition be detected by both sexes and all life stages. A device baited with such semiochemicals could play a major role in limiting the impact of the current bed bug resurgence by enabling timely detection of infestations, along with quantitative evaluation of control and effective surveillance of the geographical distribution of the pest species.

Spatial distribution of stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in wheat

PubMed Central

Reay-Jones, Francis P. F.

2014-01-01

Abstract A two-year study was conducted in South Carolina wheat ( Triticum aestivum L. (Poales: Poaceae)) fields to describe spatial and temporal dynamics of stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), which were sampled weekly with sweep nets. In 2010, the main phytophagous stink bugs caught in a grid sampling plan across two fields were the brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say), the rice stink bug, Oebalus pugnax (F.), the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (L.), and the red shouldered stink bug, Thyanta custator (F.), for both adults and nymphs. In 2011, the main phytophagous stink bugs were E. servus , O. pugnax , N. viridula , and T. custator across two fields. Adult stink bug counts adjacent to fallow fields were 2.1-fold greater for all species combined compared with counts adjacent to woods. Spatial Analysis by Distance IndicEs (SADIE) indicated significant aggregation for 35% of analyses for adults and nymph stink bugs at each sampling date. As a measure of spatial and temporal stability, positive SADIE association indices among sampling dates recorded 11, 36, 43, and 16% of analyses for adult E. servus and 7, 50, 50, and 14% for adult O. pugnax in fields A, B, C, and D, respectively. Adult and nymph stink bugs were spatially associated within wheat fields based on SADIE association indices. Seasonal counts of stink bugs were spatially associated with spike counts at least once for each species across the four fields. Future work may investigate practices to reduce stink bug buildup on wheat in the spring and movement to susceptible crops such as corn, Zea mays L. PMID:25205358

Vision in the common bed bug Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae): eye morphology and spectral sensitivity.

PubMed

McNeill, C A; Allan, S A; Koehler, P G; Pereira, R M; Weeks, E N I

2016-12-01

Bed bugs as pests of public health importance recently experienced a resurgence in populations throughout the U.S. and other countries. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on improving understanding of bed bug physiology and behaviour to improve management. While few studies have investigated the visual capabilities of bed bugs, the present study focused specifically on eye morphology and spectral sensitivity. A 3-D imaging technique was used to document bed bug eye morphology from the first instar through adult and revealed morphological characteristics that differentiate the common bed bug from the tropical bed bug as well as sex-specific differences. Electrophysiological measurements were used to evaluate the spectral sensitivity of adult bed bugs. Male bed bugs were more responsive than females at some wavelengths. Electrophysiological studies provided evidence for at least one photoreceptor with a spectral sensitivity curve peak in the green (λ max 520 nm) region of the spectrum. The broadened long wavelength portion of the spectral sensitivity curve may potentially indicate another photoreceptor in the yellow-green (λ max 550 nm) portion of the spectrum or screening pigments. Understanding more about bed bug visual biology is vital for designing traps, which are an important component of integrated bed bug management. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

Bayesian networks and statistical analysis application to analyze the diagnostic test accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzechowski, P.; Makal, Jaroslaw; Onisko, A.

2005-02-01

The computer aided BPH diagnosis system based on Bayesian network is described in the paper. First result are compared to a given statistical method. Different statistical methods are used successfully in medicine for years. However, the undoubted advantages of probabilistic methods make them useful in application in newly created systems which are frequent in medicine, but do not have full and competent knowledge. The article presents advantages of the computer aided BPH diagnosis system in clinical practice for urologists.

All about Bugs. Animal Life for Children. [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2000

Bugs fascinate children, and each kind of bug plays a special role in the circle of life. Some bugs pollinate plants, while others help to decompose plant and animal waste. In this videotape, students learn about the similar characteristics that all bugs share and compare them to their close cousins, the arachnids. This videotape correlates to the…

Using research and education to implement practical bed bug control programs in multifamily housing.

PubMed

Bennett, Gary W; Gondhalekar, Ameya D; Wang, Changlu; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Gibb, Timothy J

2016-01-01

Multifamily housing facilities serving low-income populations have been at the forefront of bed bug outbreaks. Research conducted in the past 8 years has consistently proven that integrated pest management (IPM) is the best approach for successful suppression of bed bug infestations. Bed bug IPM in multifamily settings is especially dependent upon a collaborative community or building-wide effort involving residents, building staff and pest control technicians. Other components of a bed bug IPM program include regular monitoring to detect early-stage bed bug infestations and combined use of non-chemical and chemical interventions. Lastly, to reduce reinfestation rates and costs associated with bed bug control, it is critical to continue periodic monitoring and implement preventive control measures even after successful elimination of bed bugs has been achieved. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Potential of Essential Oil-Based Pesticides and Detergents for Bed Bug Control.

PubMed

Singh, Narinderpal; Wang, Changlu; Cooper, Richard

2014-12-01

The bed bug, (Cimex lectularius L.), is a difficult pest to control. Prevalence of insecticide resistance among bed bug populations and concerns over human-insecticide exposure has stimulated the development of alternative bed bug control materials. Many essential oil-based pesticides and detergent insecticides targeting bed bugs have been developed in recent years. We evaluated the efficacy of nine essential oil-based products and two detergents using direct spray and residual contact bioassays in the laboratory. Two conventional insecticides, Temprid SC (imidacloprid and β-cyfluthrin) and Demand CS (λ-cyhalothrin), were used for comparison. Among the 11 nonsynthetic insecticides tested, only EcoRaider (1% geraniol, 1% cedar extract, and 2% sodium lauryl sulfate) and Bed Bug Patrol (0.003% clove oil, 1% peppermint oil, and 1.3% sodium lauryl sulfate) caused >90% mortality of nymphs in direct spray and forced exposure residual assays. However, the efficacy of EcoRaider and Bed Bug Patrol was significantly lower than that of Temprid SC and Demand CS in choice exposure residual bioassay. Direct spray of EcoRaider caused 87% egg mortality, whereas the other nonsynthetic insecticides had little effect on bed bug eggs. EcoRaider and Bed Bug Patrol did not exhibit detectable repellency against bed bugs in the presence of a carbon dioxide source. These findings suggest that EcoRaider and Bed Bug Patrol are potentially useful pesticides for controlling bed bug infestations, but further testing in naturally infested environments is needed. © 2014 Entomological Society of America.

Additive Genetic Variability and the Bayesian Alphabet

PubMed Central

Gianola, Daniel; de los Campos, Gustavo; Hill, William G.; Manfredi, Eduardo; Fernando, Rohan

2009-01-01

The use of all available molecular markers in statistical models for prediction of quantitative traits has led to what could be termed a genomic-assisted selection paradigm in animal and plant breeding. This article provides a critical review of some theoretical and statistical concepts in the context of genomic-assisted genetic evaluation of animals and crops. First, relationships between the (Bayesian) variance of marker effects in some regression models and additive genetic variance are examined under standard assumptions. Second, the connection between marker genotypes and resemblance between relatives is explored, and linkages between a marker-based model and the infinitesimal model are reviewed. Third, issues associated with the use of Bayesian models for marker-assisted selection, with a focus on the role of the priors, are examined from a theoretical angle. The sensitivity of a Bayesian specification that has been proposed (called “Bayes A”) with respect to priors is illustrated with a simulation. Methods that can solve potential shortcomings of some of these Bayesian regression procedures are discussed briefly. PMID:19620397

Why Bayesian Psychologists Should Change the Way They Use the Bayes Factor.

PubMed

Hoijtink, Herbert; van Kooten, Pascal; Hulsker, Koenraad

2016-01-01

The discussion following Bem's ( 2011 ) psi research highlights that applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research are not without problems. The first problem is the omission to translate subjective prior knowledge into subjective prior distributions. In the words of Savage ( 1961 ): "they make the Bayesian omelet without breaking the Bayesian egg." The second problem occurs if the Bayesian egg is not broken: the omission to choose default prior distributions such that the ensuing inferences are well calibrated. The third problem is the adherence to inadequate rules for the interpretation of the size of the Bayes factor. The current paper will elaborate these problems and show how to avoid them using the basic hypotheses and statistical model used in the first experiment described in Bem ( 2011 ). It will be argued that a thorough investigation of these problems in the context of more encompassing hypotheses and statistical models is called for if Bayesian psychologists want to add a well-founded Bayes factor to the tool kit of psychological researchers.

76 FR 550 - Second National Bed Bug Summit; Notice of Public Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-05

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2009-0190; FRL-8858-4] Second National Bed Bug Summit... planning the second National Bed Bug Summit to be held February 1 and 2, 2011, on the topic of the bed bug resurgence in the United States. The goal of this meeting is to review the current bed bug problem and...

Entrapment of bed bugs by leaf trichomes inspires microfabrication of biomimetic surfaces

PubMed Central

Szyndler, Megan W.; Haynes, Kenneth F.; Potter, Michael F.; Corn, Robert M.; Loudon, Catherine

2013-01-01

Resurgence in bed bug infestations and widespread pesticide resistance have greatly renewed interest in the development of more sustainable, environmentally friendly methods to manage bed bugs. Historically, in Eastern Europe, bed bugs were entrapped by leaves from bean plants, which were then destroyed; this purely physical entrapment was related to microscopic hooked hairs (trichomes) on the leaf surfaces. Using scanning electron microscopy and videography, we documented the capture mechanism: the physical impaling of bed bug feet (tarsi) by these trichomes. This is distinct from a Velcro-like mechanism of non-piercing entanglement, which only momentarily holds the bug without sustained capture. Struggling, trapped bed bugs are impaled by trichomes on several legs and are unable to free themselves. Only specific, mechanically vulnerable locations on the bug tarsi are pierced by the trichomes, which are located at effective heights and orientations for bed bug entrapment despite a lack of any evolutionary association. Using bean leaves as templates, we microfabricated surfaces indistinguishable in geometry from the real leaves, including the trichomes, using polymers with material properties similar to plant cell walls. These synthetic surfaces snag the bed bugs temporarily but do not hinder their locomotion as effectively as real leaves. PMID:23576783

Histamine as an emergent indoor contaminant: Accumulation and persistence in bed bug infested homes.

PubMed

DeVries, Zachary C; Santangelo, Richard G; Barbarin, Alexis M; Schal, Coby

2018-01-01

Histamine is used in bronchial and dermal provocation, but it is rarely considered an environmental risk factor in allergic disease. Because bed bugs defecate large amounts of histamine as a component of their aggregation pheromone, we sought to determine if histamine accumulates in household dust in bed bug infested homes, and the effects of bed bug eradication with spatial heat on histamine levels in dust. We collected dust in homes and analyzed for histamine before, and up to three months after bed bug eradication. Histamine levels in bed bug infested homes were remarkably high (mean = 54.6±18.9 μg/100 mg of sieved household dust) and significantly higher than in control homes not infested with bed bugs (mean < 2.5±1.9 μg/100 mg of sieved household dust). Heat treatments that eradicated the bed bug infestations failed to reduce histamine levels, even three months after treatment. We report a clear association between histamine levels in household dust and bed bug infestations. The high concentrations, persistence, and proximity to humans during sleep suggest that bed bug-produced histamine may represent an emergent contaminant and pose a serious health risk in the indoor environment.

Histamine as an emergent indoor contaminant: Accumulation and persistence in bed bug infested homes

PubMed Central

Santangelo, Richard G.; Barbarin, Alexis M.; Schal, Coby

2018-01-01

Histamine is used in bronchial and dermal provocation, but it is rarely considered an environmental risk factor in allergic disease. Because bed bugs defecate large amounts of histamine as a component of their aggregation pheromone, we sought to determine if histamine accumulates in household dust in bed bug infested homes, and the effects of bed bug eradication with spatial heat on histamine levels in dust. We collected dust in homes and analyzed for histamine before, and up to three months after bed bug eradication. Histamine levels in bed bug infested homes were remarkably high (mean = 54.6±18.9 μg/100 mg of sieved household dust) and significantly higher than in control homes not infested with bed bugs (mean < 2.5±1.9 μg/100 mg of sieved household dust). Heat treatments that eradicated the bed bug infestations failed to reduce histamine levels, even three months after treatment. We report a clear association between histamine levels in household dust and bed bug infestations. The high concentrations, persistence, and proximity to humans during sleep suggest that bed bug-produced histamine may represent an emergent contaminant and pose a serious health risk in the indoor environment. PMID:29432483

Ineffectiveness of over-the-counter total-release foggers against the bed bug (Heteroptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Jones, Susan C; Bryant, Joshua L

2012-06-01

Field-collected bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L.) showed little, if any, adverse effects after 2-h direct exposure to the aerosolized pyrethroid(s) from three over-the-counter total-release foggers ('bug bombs' or 'foggers'); Hotshot Bedbug and Flea Fogger, Spectracide Bug Stop Indoor Fogger, and Eliminator Indoor Fogger. One field-collected population, EPM, was an exception in that there was significant mortality at 5-7 d when bugs out in the open had been exposed to the Spectracide Fogger; mortality was low when these bugs had access to an optional harborage, a situation observed for all field-collected populations when exposed to the three foggers. Even the Harlan strain, the long-term laboratory population that is susceptible to pyrethroids and that served as an internal control in these experiments, was unaffected if the bugs were covered by a thin cloth layer that provided harborage. In residences and other settings, the majority of bed bugs hide in protected sites where they will not be directly contracted by the insecticide mist from foggers. This study provides the first scientific data supporting the position that total-release foggers should not be recommended for control of bed bugs, because 1) many field-collected bed bugs are resistant to pyrethroids, and they are not affected by brief exposure to low concentrations of pyrethrins and/or pyrethroids provided by foggers; and 2) there is minimal, if any, insecticide penetration into typical bed bug harborage sites. This study provides strong evidence that Hotshot Bedbug and Flea Fogger, Spectracide Bug Stop Indoor Fogger, and Eliminator Indoor Fogger were ineffective as bed bug control agents.

Effects of Starvation on Deltamethrin Tolerance in Bed Bugs, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae)

PubMed Central

DeVries, Zachary C.; Reid, William R.; Kells, Stephen A.; Appel, Arthur G.

2015-01-01

Bed bugs, Cimex lectularius L., are a major pest in the urban environment. Their presence often results in physical, psychological, and financial distress of homeowners and apartment dwellers. Although many insecticide bioassays have been performed on this pest, little attention has been paid to bed bug feeding status, which is closely linked to metabolism, molting, and mass. Therefore, we evaluated the toxicity of topically applied deltamethrin on insecticide susceptible adult male bed bugs fed 2 d, 9 d, and 21 d prior to testing. When toxicity was evaluated on a “per-bug” basis, there was no difference between 2 d [LD50 = 0.498 (0.316 − 0.692) ng·bug−1] and 9 d [LD50 = 0.572 (0.436 − 0.724) ng·bug−1] starved bugs, while 21 d starved bugs had a significantly lower LD50 [0.221 (0.075 − 0.386) ng·bug−1]. When toxicity was evaluated in terms of body mass, 9 d starved bugs had the highest LD50 values [0.138 (0.102 − 0.176) ng·mg−1], followed by 2 d starved bugs [0.095 (0.060 − 0.134) ng·mg−1], and then 21 d starved bugs [0.058 (0.019–0.102) ng·mg−1]; the LD50 values of 2 d and 9 d starved bugs were significantly different from 21 d starved bugs. These results indicate that feeding status plays an important role in the toxicity of deltamethrin. In addition, the lack of differences between 2 d and 9 d starved bugs indicate that the blood meal itself has little impact on tolerance, but rather it is some physiological change following feeding that confers increased tolerance to bed bugs. PMID:26463068

Bed Bug Infestations and Control Practices in China: Implications for Fighting the Global Bed Bug Resurgence.

PubMed

Wang, Changlu; Wen, Xiujun

2011-04-11

The bed bug resurgence in North America, Europe, and Australia has elicited interest in investigating the causes of the widespread and increasing infestations and in developing more effective control strategies. In order to extend global perspectives on bed bug management, we reviewed bed bug literature in China by searching five Chinese language electronic databases. We conducted telephone interviews of staff from 77 Health and Epidemic Prevention Stations in six Chinese cities in November 2010. We also conducted telephone interviews of 68 pest control firms in two cities during March 2011. Two species of bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L. and Cimex hemipterus (F.)) are known to occur in China. These were common urban pests before the early1980s. Nationwide "Four-Pest Elimination" campaigns (bed bugs being one of the targeted pests) were implemented in China from 1960 to the early 1980s. These campaigns succeeded in the elimination of bed bug infestations in most communities. Commonly used bed bug control methods included applications of hot water, sealing of bed bug harborages, physical removal, and applications of residual insecticides (mainly organophosphate sprays or dusts). Although international and domestic travel has increased rapidly in China over the past decade (2000-2010), there have only been sporadic new infestations reported in recent years. During 1999-2009, all documented bed bug infestations were found in group living facilities (military dormitories, worker dormitories, and prisons), hotels, or trains. One city (Shenzhen city near Hong Kong) experienced significantly higher number of bed bug infestations. This city is characterized by a high concentration of migratory factory workers. Current bed bug control practices include educating residents, washing, reducing clutter, putting items under the hot sun in summer, and applying insecticides (pyrethroids or organophosphates). There have not been any studies or reports on bed bug insecticide resistance. Difficulties of control were noted in our surveys of dormitories in which crowded living, seasonal worker migration, and financial constraints contributed to control failures. This study supports the following conclusions: (1) the bed bug infestation in China dramatically decreased following the campaigns from 1960 to the early 1980s; (2) In our survey of Health and Epidemics Prevention Stations, no bed bug cases were reported in Beijing and Shanghai for the past 12 months, but complaints were reported in Guangzhou, Lanzhou, Urumqi, and Shenzhen; (3) Current bed bug infestations primarily are reported in crowded living environments or transient environments such as worker dormitories and military dormitories. These findings suggest that community-wide bed bug monitoring and control campaigns are necessary for effective control of bed bug infestations as a societal response.

Bed Bug Infestations and Control Practices in China: Implications for Fighting the Global Bed Bug Resurgence

PubMed Central

Wang, Changlu; Wen, Xiujun

2011-01-01

The bed bug resurgence in North America, Europe, and Australia has elicited interest in investigating the causes of the widespread and increasing infestations and in developing more effective control strategies. In order to extend global perspectives on bed bug management, we reviewed bed bug literature in China by searching five Chinese language electronic databases. We conducted telephone interviews of staff from 77 Health and Epidemic Prevention Stations in six Chinese cities in November 2010. We also conducted telephone interviews of 68 pest control firms in two cities during March 2011. Two species of bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L. and Cimex hemipterus (F.)) are known to occur in China. These were common urban pests before the early1980s. Nationwide “Four-Pest Elimination” campaigns (bed bugs being one of the targeted pests) were implemented in China from 1960 to the early 1980s. These campaigns succeeded in the elimination of bed bug infestations in most communities. Commonly used bed bug control methods included applications of hot water, sealing of bed bug harborages, physical removal, and applications of residual insecticides (mainly organophosphate sprays or dusts). Although international and domestic travel has increased rapidly in China over the past decade (2000–2010), there have only been sporadic new infestations reported in recent years. During 1999–2009, all documented bed bug infestations were found in group living facilities (military dormitories, worker dormitories, and prisons), hotels, or trains. One city (Shenzhen city near Hong Kong) experienced significantly higher number of bed bug infestations. This city is characterized by a high concentration of migratory factory workers. Current bed bug control practices include educating residents, washing, reducing clutter, putting items under the hot sun in summer, and applying insecticides (pyrethroids or organophosphates). There have not been any studies or reports on bed bug insecticide resistance. Difficulties of control were noted in our surveys of dormitories in which crowded living, seasonal worker migration, and financial constraints contributed to control failures. This study supports the following conclusions: (1) the bed bug infestation in China dramatically decreased following the campaigns from 1960 to the early 1980s; (2) In our survey of Health and Epidemics Prevention Stations, no bed bug cases were reported in Beijing and Shanghai for the past 12 months, but complaints were reported in Guangzhou, Lanzhou, Urumqi, and Shenzhen; (3) Current bed bug infestations primarily are reported in crowded living environments or transient environments such as worker dormitories and military dormitories. These findings suggest that community-wide bed bug monitoring and control campaigns are necessary for effective control of bed bug infestations as a societal response. PMID:26467615

A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Young, K.V.

2008-01-01

Estimating density is a fundamental objective of many animal population studies. Application of methods for estimating population size from ostensibly closed populations is widespread, but ineffective for estimating absolute density because most populations are subject to short-term movements or so-called temporary emigration. This phenomenon invalidates the resulting estimates because the effective sample area is unknown. A number of methods involving the adjustment of estimates based on heuristic considerations are in widespread use. In this paper, a hierarchical model of spatially indexed capture recapture data is proposed for sampling based on area searches of spatial sample units subject to uniform sampling intensity. The hierarchical model contains explicit models for the distribution of individuals and their movements, in addition to an observation model that is conditional on the location of individuals during sampling. Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical model is achieved by the use of data augmentation, which allows for a straightforward implementation in the freely available software WinBUGS. We present results of a simulation study that was carried out to evaluate the operating characteristics of the Bayesian estimator under variable densities and movement patterns of individuals. An application of the model is presented for survey data on the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) in Arizona, USA.

Hierarchical modeling of bycatch rates of sea turtles in the western North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Epperly, S.; Morreale, S.J.

2008-01-01

Previous studies indicate that the locations of the endangered loggerhead Caretta caretta and critically endangered leatherback Dermochelys coriacea sea turtles are influenced by water temperatures, and that incidental catch rates in the pelagic longline fishery vary by region. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of environmental variables, including water temperature, on the number of sea turtles captured in the US pelagic longline fishery in the western North Atlantic. The modeling structure is highly flexible, utilizes a Bayesian model selection technique, and is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The number of sea turtles captured is modeled as a zero-inflated Poisson distribution and the model incorporates fixed effects to examine region-specific differences in the parameter estimates. Results indicate that water temperature, region, bottom depth, and target species are all significant predictors of the number of loggerhead sea turtles captured. For leatherback sea turtles, the model with only target species had the most posterior model weight, though a re-parameterization of the model indicates that temperature influences the zero-inflation parameter. The relationship between the number of sea turtles captured and the variables of interest all varied by region. This suggests that management decisions aimed at reducing sea turtle bycatch may be more effective if they are spatially explicit. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J. Andrew

2010-01-01

We develop a hierarchical capture–recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture–recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies.

PubMed

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J Andrew

2010-11-01

We develop a hierarchical capture-recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture-recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

Horizontal Transfer of Diatomaceous Earth and Botanical Insecticides in the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius L.; Hemiptera: Cimicidae

PubMed Central

Akhtar, Yasmin; Isman, Murray B.

2013-01-01

Background Horizontal transfer of insecticide occurs when insects contact or ingest an insecticide, return to an aggregation or a nest, and transfer the insecticide to other conspecific insects through contact. This phenomenon has been reported in a number of insects including social insects, however it has not been reported in bed bugs. Since horizontal transfer can facilitate the spread of insecticide into hard to reach spaces, it could contribute greatly to the management of these public health pests. Methodology/Results To demonstrate horizontal transfer of diatomaceous earth and botanical insecticides in C. lectularius, an exposed (donor) bed bug, following a 10-minute acquisition period, was placed with unexposed (recipient) bed bugs. Mortality data clearly demonstrates that diatomaceous earth (DE 51) was actively transferred from a single exposed bug to unexposed bugs in a concentration dependent manner. LC50 values varied from 24.4 mg at 48 h to 5.1 mg at 216 h when a single exposed bed bug was placed with 5 unexposed bed bugs. LT50 values also exhibited a concentration response. LT50 values varied from 1.8 days to 8.4 days when a ‘donor’ bug exposed to 20 and 5 mg of dust respectively was placed with 5 ‘recipient’ bugs. Dust was also actively transferred from adult bed bugs to the nymphs. In addition we observed horizontal transfer of botanical insecticides including neem, ryania, and rotenone to varying degrees. Conclusion/Significance Our data clearly demonstrate horizontal transfer of diatomaceous earth and botanical insecticides in the common bed bug, C. lectularius. Use of a fluorescent dust provided visual confirmation that contaminated bed bugs transfer dust to untreated bed bugs in harborage. This result is important because bedbugs live in hard-to-reach places and interaction between conspecifics can be exploited for delivery and dissemination of management products directed at this public health pest. PMID:24086593

Horizontal transfer of diatomaceous earth and botanical insecticides in the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L.; hemiptera: cimicidae.

PubMed

Akhtar, Yasmin; Isman, Murray B

2013-01-01

Horizontal transfer of insecticide occurs when insects contact or ingest an insecticide, return to an aggregation or a nest, and transfer the insecticide to other conspecific insects through contact. This phenomenon has been reported in a number of insects including social insects, however it has not been reported in bed bugs. Since horizontal transfer can facilitate the spread of insecticide into hard to reach spaces, it could contribute greatly to the management of these public health pests. To demonstrate horizontal transfer of diatomaceous earth and botanical insecticides in C. lectularius, an exposed (donor) bed bug, following a 10-minute acquisition period, was placed with unexposed (recipient) bed bugs. Mortality data clearly demonstrates that diatomaceous earth (DE 51) was actively transferred from a single exposed bug to unexposed bugs in a concentration dependent manner. LC50 values varied from 24.4 mg at 48 h to 5.1 mg at 216 h when a single exposed bed bug was placed with 5 unexposed bed bugs. LT50 values also exhibited a concentration response. LT50 values varied from 1.8 days to 8.4 days when a 'donor' bug exposed to 20 and 5 mg of dust respectively was placed with 5 'recipient' bugs. Dust was also actively transferred from adult bed bugs to the nymphs. In addition we observed horizontal transfer of botanical insecticides including neem, ryania, and rotenone to varying degrees. Our data clearly demonstrate horizontal transfer of diatomaceous earth and botanical insecticides in the common bed bug, C. lectularius. Use of a fluorescent dust provided visual confirmation that contaminated bed bugs transfer dust to untreated bed bugs in harborage. This result is important because bedbugs live in hard-to-reach places and interaction between conspecifics can be exploited for delivery and dissemination of management products directed at this public health pest.

Evaluation of two least toxic integrated pest management programs for managing bed bugs (Heteroptera: Cimicidae) with discussion of a bed bug intercepting device.

PubMed

Wang, Changlu; Gibb, Timothy; Bennett, Gary W

2009-05-01

The cost and effectiveness of two bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) integrated pest management (IPM) programs were evaluated for 10 wk. Sixteen bed bug-infested apartments were chosen from a high-rise low-income apartment building. The apartments were randomly divided into two treatment groups: diatomaceous earth dust-based IPM (D-IPM) and chlorfenapyr spray-based IPM (S-IPM). The initial median (minimum, maximum) bed bug counts (by visual inspection) of the two treatment groups were 73.5 (10, 352) and 77 (18, 3025), respectively. A seminar and an educational brochure were delivered to residents and staff. It was followed by installing encasements on mattresses and box springs and applying hot steam to bed bug-infested areas in all 16 apartments. Diatomaceous earth dust (Mother Earth-D) was applied in the D-IPM group 2 d after steaming. In addition, bed bug-intercepting devices were installed under legs of infested beds or sofas or chairs to intercept bed bugs. The S-IPM group only received 0.5% chlorfenapyr spray (Phantom) after the nonchemical treatments. All apartments were monitored bi-weekly and retreated when necessary. After 10 wk, bed bugs were eradicated from 50% of the apartments in each group. Bed bug count reduction (mean +/- SEM) was 97.6 +/- 1.6 and 89.7 +/- 7.3% in the D-IPM and S-IPM groups, respectively. Mean treatment costs in the 10-wk period were $463 and $482 per apartment in the D-IPM and S-IPM groups, respectively. Bed bug interceptors trapped an average of 219 +/- 135 bed bugs per apartment in 10 wk. The interceptors contributed to the IPM program efficacy and were much more effective than visual inspections in estimating bed bug numbers and determining the existence of bed bug infestations.

Potential population growth and harmful effects on humans from bed bug populations exposed to different feeding regimes.

PubMed

Pereira, R M; Taylor, A S; Lehnert, M P; Koehler, P G

2013-06-01

Effects of host availability and feeding period on bed bugs, Cimex lectularius (L.) (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), were measured. Population growth and the potential harmful effect of bed bug populations on human hosts were modelled. Bloodmeal sizes were affected by both feeding length and frequency, with >2-fold difference between insects fed daily or weekly. Blood consumption increased >2-fold between bed bugs fed occasionally and often, and 1.5-fold between occasional and daily feeding. Bed bugs fed more often than once a week, potentially every 2-4 days. Egg production was associated with nutrition, being strongly correlated with blood consumption in the previous week. Bed bug populations can grow under different feeding regimes and are hard to control with <80% mortality. Bed bugs can survive and grow even in locations with a limited blood supply, where bed bug persistence may be important for the continual spread of populations. Persistence in non-traditional locations and a potential association with human pathogens increase the health risks of bed bugs. Potential blood loss as a result of a bed bug can have serious consequences because uncontrolled populations can reach harmful levels in 3-8 months. The reproduction potential of bed bug populations suggests serious consequences to human health and the need for efficacious control measures. © 2012 The Royal Entomological Society.

Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation.

PubMed

Gamalo-Siebers, Margaret; Savic, Jasmina; Basu, Cynthia; Zhao, Xin; Gopalakrishnan, Mathangi; Gao, Aijun; Song, Guochen; Baygani, Simin; Thompson, Laura; Xia, H Amy; Price, Karen; Tiwari, Ram; Carlin, Bradley P

2017-07-01

Children represent a large underserved population of "therapeutic orphans," as an estimated 80% of children are treated off-label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or "borrowing") of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure-response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

Bed bug aggregation pheromone finally identified.

PubMed

Gries, Regine; Britton, Robert; Holmes, Michael; Zhai, Huimin; Draper, Jason; Gries, Gerhard

2015-01-19

Bed bugs have become a global epidemic and current detection tools are poorly suited for routine surveillance. Despite intense research on bed bug aggregation behavior and the aggregation pheromone, which could be used as a chemical lure, the complete composition of this pheromone has thus far proven elusive. Here, we report that the bed bug aggregation pheromone comprises five volatile components (dimethyl disulfide, dimethyl trisulfide, (E)-2-hexenal, (E)-2-octenal, 2-hexanone), which attract bed bugs to safe shelters, and one less-volatile component (histamine), which causes their arrestment upon contact. In infested premises, a blend of all six components is highly effective at luring bed bugs into traps. The trapping of juvenile and adult bed bugs, with or without recent blood meals, provides strong evidence that this unique pheromone bait could become an effective and inexpensive tool for bed bug detection and potentially their control. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Bed Bug Detection: Current Technologies and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Vaidyanathan, Rajeev; Feldlaufer, Mark F.

2013-01-01

Technologies to detect bed bugs have not kept pace with their global resurgence. Early detection is critical to prevent infestations from spreading. Detection based exclusively on bites is inadequate, because reactions to insect bites are non-specific and often misdiagnosed. Visual inspections are commonly used and depend on identifying live bugs, exuviae, or fecal droplets. Visual inspections are inexpensive, but they are time-consuming and unreliable when only a few bugs are present. Use of a dog to detect bed bugs is gaining in popularity, but it can be expensive, may unintentionally advertise a bed bug problem, and is not foolproof. Passive monitors mimic natural harborages; they are discreet and typically use an adhesive to trap bugs. Active monitors generate carbon dioxide, heat, a pheromone, or a combination to attract bed bugs to a trap. New technologies using DNA analysis, mass spectrometry, and electronic noses are innovative but impractical and expensive for widespread use. PMID:23553226

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

Analysis of functional and numerical responses of spined soldier bug, Podisus maculiventris when reared on kudzu bug, Megacopta cribaria (Hemiptera: Plataspididae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The spined solder bug (Podisus maculiventris) is a predatory insect that feeds on a wide array of species. The immatures of this predatory species have five instars. All stages are predatory except for the 1st instar nymphs. Kudzu bugs (Megacopta cribaria) are shield bugs that are deemed a pest of ...

Fine Mapping Causal Variants with an Approximate Bayesian Method Using Marginal Test Statistics

PubMed Central

Chen, Wenan; Larrabee, Beth R.; Ovsyannikova, Inna G.; Kennedy, Richard B.; Haralambieva, Iana H.; Poland, Gregory A.; Schaid, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

Two recently developed fine-mapping methods, CAVIAR and PAINTOR, demonstrate better performance over other fine-mapping methods. They also have the advantage of using only the marginal test statistics and the correlation among SNPs. Both methods leverage the fact that the marginal test statistics asymptotically follow a multivariate normal distribution and are likelihood based. However, their relationship with Bayesian fine mapping, such as BIMBAM, is not clear. In this study, we first show that CAVIAR and BIMBAM are actually approximately equivalent to each other. This leads to a fine-mapping method using marginal test statistics in the Bayesian framework, which we call CAVIAR Bayes factor (CAVIARBF). Another advantage of the Bayesian framework is that it can answer both association and fine-mapping questions. We also used simulations to compare CAVIARBF with other methods under different numbers of causal variants. The results showed that both CAVIARBF and BIMBAM have better performance than PAINTOR and other methods. Compared to BIMBAM, CAVIARBF has the advantage of using only marginal test statistics and takes about one-quarter to one-fifth of the running time. We applied different methods on two independent cohorts of the same phenotype. Results showed that CAVIARBF, BIMBAM, and PAINTOR selected the same top 3 SNPs; however, CAVIARBF and BIMBAM had better consistency in selecting the top 10 ranked SNPs between the two cohorts. Software is available at https://bitbucket.org/Wenan/caviarbf. PMID:25948564

Introduction to Bed Bugs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The common bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a pest – feeding on blood, causing itchy bites and generally irritating their human hosts. EPA and other agencies all consider bed bugs a public health pest, but bed bugs are not known to transmit disease.

Predation by ants controls swallow bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae: Oeciacus vicarius) infestations.

PubMed

Brown, Charles R; Page, Catherine E; Robison, Grant A; O'Brien, Valerie A; Booth, Warren

2015-06-01

The swallow bug (Oeciacus vicarius) is the only known vector for Buggy Creek virus (BCRV), an alphavirus that circulates in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) and house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in North America. We discovered ants (Crematogaster lineolata and Formica spp.) preying on swallow bugs at cliff swallow colonies in western Nebraska, U.S.A. Ants reduced the numbers of visible bugs on active swallow nests by 74-90%, relative to nests in the same colony without ants. Ant predation on bugs had no effect on the reproductive success of cliff swallows inhabiting the nests where ants foraged. Ants represent an effective and presumably benign way of controlling swallow bugs at nests in some colonies. They may constitute an alternative to insecticide use at sites where ecologists wish to remove the effects of swallow bugs on cliff swallows or house sparrows. By reducing bug numbers, ant presence may also lessen BCRV transmission at the spatial foci (bird colony sites) where epizootics occur. The effect of ants on swallow bugs should be accounted for in studying variation among sites in vector abundance. © 2015 The Society for Vector Ecology.

A Bayesian approach to the statistical analysis of device preference studies.

PubMed

Fu, Haoda; Qu, Yongming; Zhu, Baojin; Huster, William

2012-01-01

Drug delivery devices are required to have excellent technical specifications to deliver drugs accurately, and in addition, the devices should provide a satisfactory experience to patients because this can have a direct effect on drug compliance. To compare patients' experience with two devices, cross-over studies with patient-reported outcomes (PRO) as response variables are often used. Because of the strength of cross-over designs, each subject can directly compare the two devices by using the PRO variables, and variables indicating preference (preferring A, preferring B, or no preference) can be easily derived. Traditionally, methods based on frequentist statistics can be used to analyze such preference data, but there are some limitations for the frequentist methods. Recently, Bayesian methods are considered an acceptable method by the US Food and Drug Administration to design and analyze device studies. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian statistical method to analyze the data from preference trials. We demonstrate that the new Bayesian estimator enjoys some optimal properties versus the frequentist estimator. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating the inverse reasoning account of object discovery.

PubMed

Carroll, Christopher D; Kemp, Charles

2015-06-01

People routinely make inferences about unobserved objects. A hotel guest with welts on his arms, for example, will often worry about bed bugs. The discovery of unobserved objects almost always involves a backward inference from some observed effects (e.g., welts) to unobserved causes (e.g., bed bugs). The inverse reasoning account, which is typically formalized as Bayesian inference, posits that the strength of a backward inference is closely connected to the strength of the corresponding forward inference from the unobserved causes to the observed effects. We evaluated the inverse reasoning account of object discovery in three experiments where participants were asked to discover the unobserved "attractors" and "repellers" that controlled a "particle" moving within an arena. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that participants often failed to provide the best explanations for various particle motions, even when the best explanations were simple and when participants enthusiastically endorsed these explanations when presented with them. This failure demonstrates that object discovery is critically dependent on the processes that support hypothesis generation-processes that the inverse reasoning account does not explain. Experiment 3 demonstrated that people sometimes generate explanations that are invalid even according to their own forward inferences, suggesting that the psychological processes that support forward and backward inference are less intertwined than the inverse reasoning account suggests. The experimental findings support an alternative account of object discovery in which people rely on heuristics to generate possible explanations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virulence of entomopathogenic bacteria in the bed bug, Cimex lectularius.

PubMed

Pietri, Jose E; Liang, Dangsheng

2018-01-01

Due in part to the development of insecticide resistance, the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius, has overcome human intervention efforts to make a global resurgence. The failure of chemical pesticides has created a need for novel strategies to combat bed bugs. While a number of insect pests are susceptible to the use of entomopathogenic microbes or microbial-derived toxins, biological control methods have not been thoroughly explored in bed bugs. Here, we tested the virulence of three entomopathogenic bacterial species in C. lectularius to determine their potential for bed bug control. We examined bed bug survival after inoculation with live or heat-killed Serratia marcescens, Pseudomonas fluorescens, and Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis at varying temperatures. We also analyzed the viability and growth of the same bacteria in infected bed bugs. All three bacterial species were pathogenic to bed bugs. However, the effects of S. marcescens and P. fluorescens were temperature-dependent while the lethality of B. thuringiensis israelensis was not. In addition, bacterial virulence was partly dependent on the route of infection but was not strongly associated with proliferation. Thus, our results suggest multiple possible mechanisms of microbial pathogenicity in the bed bug and indicate that entomopathogenic bacteria, or products derived from them, may have useful applications for bed bug control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Simple Effect Size Estimator for Single Case Designs Using WinBUGS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rindskopf, David; Shadish, William; Hedges, Larry

2012-01-01

Data from single case designs (SCDs) have traditionally been analyzed by visual inspection rather than statistical models. As a consequence, effect sizes have been of little interest. Lately, some effect-size estimators have been proposed, but most are either (i) nonparametric, and/or (ii) based on an analogy incompatible with effect sizes from…

Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

2010-01-01

This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

Structural mapping in statistical word problems: A relational reasoning approach to Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Johnson, Eric D; Tubau, Elisabet

2017-06-01

Presenting natural frequencies facilitates Bayesian inferences relative to using percentages. Nevertheless, many people, including highly educated and skilled reasoners, still fail to provide Bayesian responses to these computationally simple problems. We show that the complexity of relational reasoning (e.g., the structural mapping between the presented and requested relations) can help explain the remaining difficulties. With a non-Bayesian inference that required identical arithmetic but afforded a more direct structural mapping, performance was universally high. Furthermore, reducing the relational demands of the task through questions that directed reasoners to use the presented statistics, as compared with questions that prompted the representation of a second, similar sample, also significantly improved reasoning. Distinct error patterns were also observed between these presented- and similar-sample scenarios, which suggested differences in relational-reasoning strategies. On the other hand, while higher numeracy was associated with better Bayesian reasoning, higher-numerate reasoners were not immune to the relational complexity of the task. Together, these findings validate the relational-reasoning view of Bayesian problem solving and highlight the importance of considering not only the presented task structure, but also the complexity of the structural alignment between the presented and requested relations.

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics.

PubMed

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Molecular Basis of N,N-Diethyl-3-Methylbenzamide (DEET) in Repelling the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Xia, Xiaoming; Liu, Nannan

2017-01-01

As the most extensively used chemical repellent, N,N-diethyl-3-methylbenzamide (DEET) displayed repellency to a wide range of insects, including the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius . While the neuronal or molecular basis involved in DEET's repellency have been majorly focused on mosquitos and fruit flies, DEET's repellency to the common bed bug is largely unreached. To gain new insights into the cellular and molecular mechanisms in DEET's repellency to the common bed bug, we characterized the neuronal response of bed bugs to DEET, identified the olfactory receptors targeted by DEET and demonstrated the interfering effect of DEET on bed bug's responses to human odorants. High doses of DEET were required for activating the olfactory receptor neurons in the sensilla of bed bugs and at least three DEET-sensitive receptors were functionally deciphered. These DEET-sensitive receptors presented even more sensitive to certain botanical terpenes/terpenoids which also displayed repellency at varying levels for bed bugs. In addition, DEET produced a blocking effect on the neuronal responses of bed bugs to specific human odors and showed inhibitory effect on the function of odorant receptors in responding to certain human odors. Taken together, our results indicate that DEET may function as a stimulus that triggers avoidance behaviors and a molecular "confusant" for interrupting the host odor recognition in the odorant receptors of bed bugs. The receptors that coincidently responded to both synthetic DEET and botanical terpenes/terpenoids suggested that DEET probably target on receptors that originally responded to terpenes/terpenoids. This study gave novel insight into the mechanisms of DEET's repellency to bed bugs and also provided valuable information for developing new reagents for bed bug control.

Molecular Basis of N,N-Diethyl-3-Methylbenzamide (DEET) in Repelling the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius

PubMed Central

Liu, Feng; Xia, Xiaoming; Liu, Nannan

2017-01-01

As the most extensively used chemical repellent, N,N-diethyl-3-methylbenzamide (DEET) displayed repellency to a wide range of insects, including the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius. While the neuronal or molecular basis involved in DEET's repellency have been majorly focused on mosquitos and fruit flies, DEET's repellency to the common bed bug is largely unreached. To gain new insights into the cellular and molecular mechanisms in DEET's repellency to the common bed bug, we characterized the neuronal response of bed bugs to DEET, identified the olfactory receptors targeted by DEET and demonstrated the interfering effect of DEET on bed bug's responses to human odorants. High doses of DEET were required for activating the olfactory receptor neurons in the sensilla of bed bugs and at least three DEET-sensitive receptors were functionally deciphered. These DEET-sensitive receptors presented even more sensitive to certain botanical terpenes/terpenoids which also displayed repellency at varying levels for bed bugs. In addition, DEET produced a blocking effect on the neuronal responses of bed bugs to specific human odors and showed inhibitory effect on the function of odorant receptors in responding to certain human odors. Taken together, our results indicate that DEET may function as a stimulus that triggers avoidance behaviors and a molecular “confusant” for interrupting the host odor recognition in the odorant receptors of bed bugs. The receptors that coincidently responded to both synthetic DEET and botanical terpenes/terpenoids suggested that DEET probably target on receptors that originally responded to terpenes/terpenoids. This study gave novel insight into the mechanisms of DEET's repellency to bed bugs and also provided valuable information for developing new reagents for bed bug control. PMID:28676765

Dissolution curve comparisons through the F(2) parameter, a Bayesian extension of the f(2) statistic.

PubMed

Novick, Steven; Shen, Yan; Yang, Harry; Peterson, John; LeBlond, Dave; Altan, Stan

2015-01-01

Dissolution (or in vitro release) studies constitute an important aspect of pharmaceutical drug development. One important use of such studies is for justifying a biowaiver for post-approval changes which requires establishing equivalence between the new and old product. We propose a statistically rigorous modeling approach for this purpose based on the estimation of what we refer to as the F2 parameter, an extension of the commonly used f2 statistic. A Bayesian test procedure is proposed in relation to a set of composite hypotheses that capture the similarity requirement on the absolute mean differences between test and reference dissolution profiles. Several examples are provided to illustrate the application. Results of our simulation study comparing the performance of f2 and the proposed method show that our Bayesian approach is comparable to or in many cases superior to the f2 statistic as a decision rule. Further useful extensions of the method, such as the use of continuous-time dissolution modeling, are considered.

MENO-II: An AI-Based Programming Tutor.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

TUTORing component then attempts to infer the misconception that might underlie the bug and present the student with remedial instruction. We tested the BUG...of the student’s program. The TUTORing component then attempts to inter the misconception that might underlie the bug and present the student with... student errors, MENO-11 can cope with 18 different types of program bugs. These bugs are tied explicitly to a knowledge base of potential misconceptions

Effectiveness of bed bug monitors for detecting and trapping bed bugs in apartments.

PubMed

Wang, Changlu; Tsai, Wan-Tien; Cooper, Richard; White, Jeffrey

2011-02-01

Bed bugs, Cimex lectularius L., are now considered a serious urban pest in the United States. Because they are small and difficult to find, there has been strong interest in developing and using monitoring tools to detect bed bugs and evaluate the results of bed bug control efforts. Several bed bug monitoring devices were developed recently, but their effectiveness is unknown. We comparatively evaluated three active monitors that contain attractants: CDC3000, NightWatch, and a home-made dry ice trap. The Climbup Insect Interceptor, a passive monitor (without attractants), was used for estimating the bed bug numbers before and after placing active monitors. The results of the Interceptors also were compared with the results of the active monitors. In occupied apartments, the relative effectiveness of the active monitors was: dry ice trap > CDC3000 > NightWatch. In lightly infested apartments, the Interceptor (operated for 7 d) trapped similar number of bed bugs as the dry ice trap (operated for 1 d) and trapped more bed bugs than CDC3000 and NightWatch (operated for 1 d). The Interceptor was also more effective than visual inspections in detecting the presence of small numbers of bed bugs. CDC3000 and the dry ice trap operated for 1 d were equally as effective as the visual inspections for detecting very low level of infestations, whereas 1-d deployment of NightWatch detected significantly lower number of infestations compared with visual inspections. NightWatch was designed to be able to operate for several consecutive nights. When operated for four nights, NightWatch trapped similar number of bed bugs as the Interceptors operated for 10 d after deployment of NightWatch. We conclude these monitors are effective tools in detecting early bed bug infestations and evaluating the results of bed bug control programs.

The odorant receptor co-receptor from the bed bug, Cimex lectularius L.

PubMed

Hansen, Immo A; Rodriguez, Stacy D; Drake, Lisa L; Price, David P; Blakely, Brittny N; Hammond, John I; Tsujimoto, Hitoshi; Monroy, Erika Y; Maio, William A; Romero, Alvaro

2014-01-01

Recently, the bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. has re-emerged as a serious and growing problem in many parts of the world. Presence of resistant bed bugs and the difficulty to eliminate them has renewed interest in alternative control tactics. Similar to other haematophagous arthropods, bed bugs rely on their olfactory system to detect semiochemicals in the environment. Previous studies have morphologically characterized olfactory organs of bed bugs' antenna and have physiologically evaluated the responses of olfactory receptor neurons (ORNs) to host-derived chemicals. To date, odorant binding proteins (OBPs) and odorant receptors (ORs) associated with these olfaction processes have not been studied in bed bugs. Chemoreception in insects requires formation of heteromeric complexes of ORs and a universal OR coreceptor (Orco). Orco is the constant chain of every odorant receptor in insects and is critical for insect olfaction but does not directly bind to odorants. Orco agonists and antagonists have been suggested as high-value targets for the development of novel insect repellents. In this study, we have performed RNAseq of bed bug sensory organs and identified several odorant receptors as well as Orco. We characterized Orco expression and investigated the effect of chemicals targeting Orco on bed bug behavior and reproduction. We have identified partial cDNAs of six C. lectularius OBPs and 16 ORs. Full length bed bug Orco was cloned and sequenced. Orco is widely expressed in different parts of the bed bug including OR neurons and spermatozoa. Treatment of bed bugs with the agonist VUAA1 changed bed bug pheromone-induced aggregation behavior and inactivated spermatozoa. We have described and characterized for the first time OBPs, ORs and Orco in bed bugs. Given the importance of these molecules in chemoreception of this insect they are interesting targets for the development of novel insect behavior modifiers.

Theory-based Bayesian Models of Inductive Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-19

Subjective randomness and natural scene statistics. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review . http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/tom/papers/randscenes.pdf Page 1...in press). Exemplar models as a mechanism for performing Bayesian inference. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review . http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/tom

Bayesian truncation errors in chiral effective field theory: model checking and accounting for correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Jordan; Wesolowski, Sarah; Furnstahl, Dick

2017-09-01

Chiral effective field theory (EFT) predictions are necessarily truncated at some order in the EFT expansion, which induces an error that must be quantified for robust statistical comparisons to experiment. A Bayesian model yields posterior probability distribution functions for these errors based on expectations of naturalness encoded in Bayesian priors and the observed order-by-order convergence pattern of the EFT. As a general example of a statistical approach to truncation errors, the model was applied to chiral EFT for neutron-proton scattering using various semi-local potentials of Epelbaum, Krebs, and Meißner (EKM). Here we discuss how our model can learn correlation information from the data and how to perform Bayesian model checking to validate that the EFT is working as advertised. Supported in part by NSF PHY-1614460 and DOE NUCLEI SciDAC DE-SC0008533.

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muinonen, K.; Bowell, Edward

1992-01-01

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

Behavioral Responses of the Bed Bug to Permethrin-Impregnated ActiveGuard™ Fabric.

PubMed

Jones, Susan C; Bryant, Joshua L; Harrison, Scott A

2013-06-07

ActiveGuard™ Mattress Liners have been used to control house dust mites, and they also are commercially available as an integrated pest management tool for use against bed bugs (Cimex lectularius). The aim of our study was to evaluate responses of numerous populations of the bed bug to the permethrin-impregnated fabric, with particular regard to contact toxicity, repellency, and feeding inhibition. Continuous exposure to ActiveGuard fabric resulted in rapid intoxication for three of four populations, with 87 to 100% of moderately pyrethroid-resistant and susceptible bed bugs succumbing by 1 d. In comparison, a highly resistant population reached 22% mortality at 10 d. Video data revealed that bed bugs readily traversed ActiveGuard fabric and spent a considerable amount of time moving about and resting on it during a 12-h period. ActiveGuard fabric was non-repellent to bed bugs from five tested populations. Furthermore, significantly fewer bed bugs successfully fed to repletion through ActiveGuard fabric than through blank fabric for the five populations. With just 30 min of feeding exposure, mortality ranged from 4% to 83%, depending upon the bed bug strain. These laboratory studies indicate that ActiveGuard liners adversely affected bed bugs from diverse populations.

Assassin bug uses aggressive mimicry to lure spider prey.

PubMed

Wignall, Anne E; Taylor, Phillip W

2011-05-07

Assassin bugs (Stenolemus bituberus) hunt web-building spiders by invading the web and plucking the silk to generate vibrations that lure the resident spider into striking range. To test whether vibrations generated by bugs aggressively mimic the vibrations generated by insect prey, we compared the responses of spiders to bugs with how they responded to prey, courting male spiders and leaves falling into the web. We also analysed the associated vibrations. Similar spider orientation and approach behaviours were observed in response to vibrations from bugs and prey, whereas different behaviours were observed in response to vibrations from male spiders and leaves. Peak frequency and duration of vibrations generated by bugs were similar to those generated by prey and courting males. Further, vibrations from bugs had a temporal structure and amplitude that were similar to vibrations generated by leg and body movements of prey and distinctly different to vibrations from courting males or leaves, or prey beating their wings. To be an effective predator, bugs do not need to mimic the full range of prey vibrations. Instead bugs are general mimics of a subset of prey vibrations that fall within the range of vibrations classified by spiders as 'prey'.

Impact of environmental variables on Dubas bug infestation rate: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman

PubMed Central

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M.; Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

Date palm cultivation is economically important in the Sultanate of Oman, with significant financial investment coming from both the government and from private individuals. However, a global infestation of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) has impacted the Middle East region, and infestations of date palms have been widespread. In this study, spatial analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to model the spatial distribution of Dubas bug infestations to (a) identify correlations between Dubas bug densities and different environmental variables, and (b) predict the locations of future Dubas bug infestations in Oman. Firstly, we considered individual environmental variables and their correlations with infestation locations. Then, we applied more complex predictive models and regression analysis techniques to investigate the combinations of environmental factors most conducive to the survival and spread of the Dubas bug. Environmental variables including elevation, geology, and distance to drainage pathways were found to significantly affect Dubas bug infestations. In contrast, aspect and hillshade did not significantly impact on Dubas bug infestations. Understanding their distribution and therefore applying targeted controls on their spread is important for effective mapping, control and management (e.g., resource allocation) of Dubas bug infestations. PMID:28558069

Bed Bugs: Clinical Relevance and Control Options

PubMed Central

Dwyer, Dominic E.; Peñas, Pablo F.; Russell, Richard C.

2012-01-01

Summary: Since the late 1990s, bed bugs of the species Cimex lectularius and Cimex hemipterus have undergone a worldwide resurgence. These bed bugs are blood-sucking insects that readily bite humans. Cutaneous reactions may occur and can start out as small macular lesions that can develop into distinctive wheals of around 5 cm in diameter, which are accompanied by intense itching. Occasionally, bullous eruptions may result. If bed bugs are numerous, the patient can present with widespread urticaria or eythematous rashes. Often, bites occur in lines along the limbs. Over 40 pathogens have been detected in bed bugs, but there is no definitive evidence that they transmit any disease-causing organisms to humans. Anemia may result when bed bugs are numerous, and their allergens can trigger asthmatic reactions. The misuse of chemicals and other technologies for controlling bed bugs has the potential to have a deleterious impact on human health, while the insect itself can be the cause of significant psychological trauma. The control of bed bugs is challenging and should encompass a multidisciplinary approach utilizing nonchemical means of control and the judicious use of insecticides. For accommodation providers, risk management procedures should be implemented to reduce the potential of bed bug infestations. PMID:22232375

Impact of environmental variables on Dubas bug infestation rate: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman.

PubMed

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

Date palm cultivation is economically important in the Sultanate of Oman, with significant financial investment coming from both the government and from private individuals. However, a global infestation of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) has impacted the Middle East region, and infestations of date palms have been widespread. In this study, spatial analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to model the spatial distribution of Dubas bug infestations to (a) identify correlations between Dubas bug densities and different environmental variables, and (b) predict the locations of future Dubas bug infestations in Oman. Firstly, we considered individual environmental variables and their correlations with infestation locations. Then, we applied more complex predictive models and regression analysis techniques to investigate the combinations of environmental factors most conducive to the survival and spread of the Dubas bug. Environmental variables including elevation, geology, and distance to drainage pathways were found to significantly affect Dubas bug infestations. In contrast, aspect and hillshade did not significantly impact on Dubas bug infestations. Understanding their distribution and therefore applying targeted controls on their spread is important for effective mapping, control and management (e.g., resource allocation) of Dubas bug infestations.

Climbing Ability of the Common Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Hottel, B A; Pereira, R M; Gezan, S A; Qing, R; Sigmund, W M; Koehler, P G

2015-05-01

Little is known about what factors influence the climbing ability of bed bugs, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), in relation to the various surfaces they encounter. We examined how sex, time since last fed, and what surfaces the bed bugs were in contact with affected their climbing performance. The effects of sex and time since fed were tested by counting the number of bed bugs able to climb a 45° slope. The pulling force was recorded using an analytical balance technique that captured the sequential vertical pulling force output of bed bugs attached to various surfaces. Recently fed female bed bugs were found to have the most difficulty in climbing smooth surfaces in comparison with males. This difference can be explained by the larger weight gained from bloodmeals by female bed bugs. A variety of vertical pulling forces were observed on surfaces ranging from sandpaper to talc powder-covered glass. For surfaces not treated with talc powder, bed bugs generated the least amount of vertical pulling force from synthetically created 0.6-µm plastron surfaces. This vast range in the ability of bed bugs to grip onto various surfaces may have implications on limiting bed bugs dispersal and hitchhiking behaviors. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effect of Moxidectin on Bed Bug Feeding, Development, Fecundity, and Survivorship.

PubMed

Zha, Chen; Wang, Changlu; Sheele, Johnathan Michael

2017-09-30

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), is a blood-feeding ectoparasite which experienced world-wide resurgence during recent decades. The control of bed bugs is often challenging, due to their cryptic nature and resistance to commonly used insecticides. In this study, we evaluated the effect of the antiparasitic drug moxidectin on bed bug survival, reproduction, and development. The LC 50 (lethal concentration to kill half the members of a tested population) of moxidectin against bed bug male adults, female adults, and large nymphs were 52.7 (95% CI (confidence interval): 39.5-70.8), 29.3 (95% CI: 20.7-40.5), and 29.1 ng/mL (95% CI: 23.3-35.3), respectively. Moxidectin (≥ 25 ng/mL) reduced egg laying of bed bug females, but showed no significant effect on egg hatching. One time feeding on rabbit blood containing 20 and 40 ng/mL moxidectin showed no negative effects in bed bug feeding and blood meal ingestion, but significantly reduced digestion rates and nymph molting rates. Although moxidectin at concentrations of 20 and 40 ng/mL only caused moderate mortality in bed bugs, it significantly interrupted digestion, development, and oviposition of survived bed bugs for at least one week after feeding. Moxidectin is a promising supplement of the existing bed bug control materials if its use on humans can be approved in the future.

Efficacy of an Essential Oil-Based Pesticide for Controlling Bed Bug (Cimex lectularius) Infestations in Apartment Buildings.

PubMed

Wang, Changlu; Singh, Narinderpal; Cooper, Richard

2014-11-05

Bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L. and Cimex hemipterus F.) are among the most difficult urban pests to manage. Many essential oil-based bed bug control products that are considered reduced risk to mammals compared to synthetic insect neurotoxins have become commercially available, but their effectiveness as a stand-alone control method is unknown. This study assessed the field efficacy of an essential oil-based bed bug control product (EcoRaider; a.i. 1% geraniol + 1% cedar oil + 2% sodium lauryl sulfate) compared to a pyrethroid and neonicotinoid mixture spray (0.075% Temprid SC; a.i. beta-cyfluthrin + imidacloprid). After 12 weeks, the three treatments-EcoRaider, Temprid SC, and EcoRaider + Temprid SC caused 92.5 ± 2.7, 92.9 ± 3.0, and 91.7% ± 2.7% bed bug count reduction, respectively. No significant differences existed in the bed bug reduction among the treatments. Bed bugs were eliminated from only 22% of the treated apartments. Among those still with bed bugs, 76% of the residents did not know bed bugs were present. We documented the residents' self-control practices and discussed the potential of using essential oil-based insecticides in bed bug management programs to minimize the health risks to building occupants and pets and to slow down the development of insecticide resistance.

Efficacy of an Essential Oil-Based Pesticide for Controlling Bed Bug (Cimex lectularius) Infestations in Apartment Buildings

PubMed Central

Wang, Changlu; Singh, Narinderpal; Cooper, Richard

2014-01-01

Bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L. and Cimex hemipterus F.) are among the most difficult urban pests to manage. Many essential oil-based bed bug control products that are considered reduced risk to mammals compared to synthetic insect neurotoxins have become commercially available, but their effectiveness as a stand-alone control method is unknown. This study assessed the field efficacy of an essential oil-based bed bug control product (EcoRaider; a.i. 1% geraniol + 1% cedar oil + 2% sodium lauryl sulfate) compared to a pyrethroid and neonicotinoid mixture spray (0.075% Temprid SC; a.i. beta-cyfluthrin + imidacloprid). After 12 weeks, the three treatments—EcoRaider, Temprid SC, and EcoRaider + Temprid SC caused 92.5 ± 2.7, 92.9 ± 3.0, and 91.7% ± 2.7% bed bug count reduction, respectively. No significant differences existed in the bed bug reduction among the treatments. Bed bugs were eliminated from only 22% of the treated apartments. Among those still with bed bugs, 76% of the residents did not know bed bugs were present. We documented the residents’ self-control practices and discussed the potential of using essential oil-based insecticides in bed bug management programs to minimize the health risks to building occupants and pets and to slow down the development of insecticide resistance. PMID:26462944

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

A Preliminary Bayesian Analysis of Incomplete Longitudinal Data from a Small Sample: Methodological Advances in an International Comparative Study of Educational Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Chueh-An; Maier, Kimberly S.

2009-01-01

The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

Comparison of Three Bed Bug Management Strategies in a Low-Income Apartment Building.

PubMed

Wang, Changlu; Saltzmann, Kurt; Bennett, Gary; Gibb, Timothy

2012-04-02

Bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) infestations are currently controlled by a variety of non-chemical and chemical methods. There have been few studies on the comparative effectiveness of these control techniques. We evaluated three bed bug management strategies in an apartment building: (1) non-chemical methods only (n = 9); (2) insecticides only (n = 6); and (3) integrated pest management including both non-chemical methods and insecticides (n = 9). The apartments were one-bedroom units occupied by seniors or people with disabilities. Bed bug numbers in each apartment were determined by visual inspection and/or installing intercepting devices under bed and sofa legs. The median (min, max) bed bug counts in the non-chemical methods only, insecticides only, and integrated pest management (IPM) treatment were: 4 (1, 57), 19 (1, 250), and 14 (1, 219), respectively prior to the treatments. The apartments were retreated if found necessary during biweekly to monthly inspections. After 10 weeks, bed bugs were found to be eliminated from 67, 33, and 44% of the apartments in the three treatment groups, respectively. The final (after 10 weeks) median (min, max) bed bug counts in the non-chemical methods only, insecticides only, and IPM treatment were: 0 (0, 134), 11.5 (0, 58), and 1 (0, 38), respectively. There were no significant differences in the speed of bed bug count reduction or the final bed bug counts. Lack of resident cooperation partially contributed to the failure in eliminating bed bugs from some of the apartments. Results of this study suggest that non-chemical methods can effectively eliminate bed bugs in lightly infested apartments.

Behavioral Responses of the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius, to Insecticide Dusts.

PubMed

Agnew, John L; Romero, Alvaro

2017-08-08

Bed bugs have reemerged recently as a serious and growing problem not only in North America but in many parts of the world. These insects have become the most challenging pest to control in urban environments. Residual insecticides are the most common methods used for bed bug control; however, insecticide resistance limits the efficacy of treatments. Desiccant dusts have emerged as a good option to provide a better residual effect for bed bug control. Several studies have focused on determining the efficacy of dust-based insecticides against bed bugs. However, behavioral responses of bed bugs to insecticide dusts could influence their efficacy. The behavioral responses of bed bugs to six insecticide dusts commonly used in the United States were evaluated with an advanced video tracking technique (Ethovision). Bed bugs took longer to make first contact with areas treated with the diatomaceous earth (DE)-based products MotherEarth D and Alpine than pyrethroid, pyrethrins or silica gel based products, DeltaDust, Tempo 1% Dust and CimeXa, respectively. Lower visitation rates of bed bugs were recorded for areas treated with MotherEarth D, Alpine and CimeXa than that of DeltaDust, Tempo 1% Dust, and Tri-Die Silica + Pyrethrum Dust. Bed bugs spent less time in areas treated with Tri-Die Dust, CimeXa, Alpine, and MotherEarth D than DeltaDust and Tempo 1% Dust, and they exhibited a reduction in locomotor parameters when crawling on areas treated with CimeXa and Alpine. The implications of these responses to bed bug control are discussed.

Behavioral Responses of the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius, to Insecticide Dusts

PubMed Central

Agnew, John L.; Romero, Alvaro

2017-01-01

Bed bugs have reemerged recently as a serious and growing problem not only in North America but in many parts of the world. These insects have become the most challenging pest to control in urban environments. Residual insecticides are the most common methods used for bed bug control; however, insecticide resistance limits the efficacy of treatments. Desiccant dusts have emerged as a good option to provide a better residual effect for bed bug control. Several studies have focused on determining the efficacy of dust-based insecticides against bed bugs. However, behavioral responses of bed bugs to insecticide dusts could influence their efficacy. The behavioral responses of bed bugs to six insecticide dusts commonly used in the United States were evaluated with an advanced video tracking technique (Ethovision). Bed bugs took longer to make first contact with areas treated with the diatomaceous earth (DE)-based products MotherEarth D and Alpine than pyrethroid, pyrethrins or silica gel based products, DeltaDust, Tempo 1% Dust and CimeXa, respectively. Lower visitation rates of bed bugs were recorded for areas treated with MotherEarth D, Alpine and CimeXa than that of DeltaDust, Tempo 1% Dust, and Tri-Die Silica + Pyrethrum Dust. Bed bugs spent less time in areas treated with Tri-Die Dust, CimeXa, Alpine, and MotherEarth D than DeltaDust and Tempo 1% Dust, and they exhibited a reduction in locomotor parameters when crawling on areas treated with CimeXa and Alpine. The implications of these responses to bed bug control are discussed. PMID:28786920

Effects of ultralow oxygen and vacuum treatments on bed bug (Heteroptera: Cimicidae) survival

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Control of bed bugs has always been problematic, balancing among efficacy, safety, and cost. In this study, ultralow oxygen (ULO) and vacuum treatments were tested on bed bugs to develop a safer, effective, and environmental friendly solution to bed bug infestations. ULO treatments were establishe...

75 FR 858 - Propoxur; Receipt of Application for Emergency Exemption; Solicitation of Public Comment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-06

..., and commercial industrial buildings to control bed bugs (Cimex lectularius). The applicant proposes a..., modes of transportation, and commercial industrial buildings to control bed bugs. Information in... existing labeled insecticides, in part due to pyrethroid resistance in the bed bug population. Bed bugs are...

The Great Bug Hunt Is Back!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon-Watmough, Rebecca; Rapley, Martin

2012-01-01

The Association for Science Education's "schoolscience.co.uk" and Martin Rapley, presenter of "The Big Bug Experience," are again running the Great Bug Hunt in 2012. Simply identify a habitat, explore and discover the bugs that live there, photograph or draw them and record findings--it's that simple. The winner will be the…

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Basics of Bayesian methods.

PubMed

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

Trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian approaches toward rigorous estimation of seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Mustać, Marija; Rhie, Junkee; Ford, Sean

2016-04-01

A framework is presented within which we provide rigorous estimations for seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia. We use Bayesian inversion methods, which enable statistical estimations of models and their uncertainties based on data information. Ambiguities in error statistics and model parameterizations are addressed by hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques, which can be inherently implemented in the Bayesian inversions. Hence reliable estimation of model parameters and their uncertainties is possible, thus avoiding arbitrary regularizations and parameterizations. Hierarchical and trans-D inversions are performed to develop a three-dimensional velocity model using ambient noise data. To further improve the model, we perform joint inversions with receiver function data using a newly developed Bayesian method. For the source estimation, a novel moment tensor inversion method is presented and applied to regional waveform data of the North Korean nuclear explosion tests. By the combination of new Bayesian techniques and the structural model, coupled with meaningful uncertainties related to each of the processes, more quantitative monitoring and discrimination of seismic events is possible.

To P or Not to P: Backing Bayesian Statistics.

PubMed

Buchinsky, Farrel J; Chadha, Neil K

2017-12-01

In biomedical research, it is imperative to differentiate chance variation from truth before we generalize what we see in a sample of subjects to the wider population. For decades, we have relied on null hypothesis significance testing, where we calculate P values for our data to decide whether to reject a null hypothesis. This methodology is subject to substantial misinterpretation and errant conclusions. Instead of working backward by calculating the probability of our data if the null hypothesis were true, Bayesian statistics allow us instead to work forward, calculating the probability of our hypothesis given the available data. This methodology gives us a mathematical means of incorporating our "prior probabilities" from previous study data (if any) to produce new "posterior probabilities." Bayesian statistics tell us how confidently we should believe what we believe. It is time to embrace and encourage their use in our otolaryngology research.

Classifying Bugs is a Tricky Business.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

programming tutor to help students learn to program in Pascal; we wanted the system to identify the nen-.pntactic bugs in a student’s program and tutor the... student with respect to the misconceptions that might have given rise to the bugs. The emphasis was on the system understanding what the student did...and did not understand; we felt that simply telling the student that there was a bug in line 14 was not sufficient -- since oftentimes the bug in line

Higher level phylogeny and the first divergence time estimation of Heteroptera (Insecta: Hemiptera) based on multiple genes.

PubMed

Li, Min; Tian, Ying; Zhao, Ying; Bu, Wenjun

2012-01-01

Heteroptera, or true bugs, are the largest, morphologically diverse and economically important group of insects with incomplete metamorphosis. However, the phylogenetic relationships within Heteroptera are still in dispute and most of the previous studies were based on morphological characters or with single gene (partial or whole 18S rDNA). Besides, so far, divergence time estimates for Heteroptera totally rely on the fossil record, while no studies have been performed on molecular divergence rates. Here, for the first time, we used maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) with multiple genes (18S rDNA, 28S rDNA, 16S rDNA and COI) to estimate phylogenetic relationships among the infraorders, and meanwhile, the Penalized Likelihood (r8s) and Bayesian (BEAST) molecular dating methods were employed to estimate divergence time of higher taxa of this suborder. Major results of the present study included: Nepomorpha was placed as the most basal clade in all six trees (MP trees, ML trees and Bayesian trees of nuclear gene data and four-gene combined data, respectively) with full support values. The sister-group relationship of Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha was also strongly supported. Nepomorpha originated in early Triassic and the other six infraorders originated in a very short period of time in middle Triassic. Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha underwent a radiation at family level in Cretaceous, paralleling the proliferation of the flowering plants. Our results indicated that the higher-group radiations within hemimetabolous Heteroptera were simultaneously with those of holometabolous Coleoptera and Diptera which took place in the Triassic. While the aquatic habitat was colonized by Nepomorpha already in the Triassic, the Gerromorpha independently adapted to the semi-aquatic habitat in the Early Jurassic.

Higher Level Phylogeny and the First Divergence Time Estimation of Heteroptera (Insecta: Hemiptera) Based on Multiple Genes

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ying; Bu, Wenjun

2012-01-01

Heteroptera, or true bugs, are the largest, morphologically diverse and economically important group of insects with incomplete metamorphosis. However, the phylogenetic relationships within Heteroptera are still in dispute and most of the previous studies were based on morphological characters or with single gene (partial or whole 18S rDNA). Besides, so far, divergence time estimates for Heteroptera totally rely on the fossil record, while no studies have been performed on molecular divergence rates. Here, for the first time, we used maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) with multiple genes (18S rDNA, 28S rDNA, 16S rDNA and COI) to estimate phylogenetic relationships among the infraorders, and meanwhile, the Penalized Likelihood (r8s) and Bayesian (BEAST) molecular dating methods were employed to estimate divergence time of higher taxa of this suborder. Major results of the present study included: Nepomorpha was placed as the most basal clade in all six trees (MP trees, ML trees and Bayesian trees of nuclear gene data and four-gene combined data, respectively) with full support values. The sister-group relationship of Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha was also strongly supported. Nepomorpha originated in early Triassic and the other six infraorders originated in a very short period of time in middle Triassic. Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha underwent a radiation at family level in Cretaceous, paralleling the proliferation of the flowering plants. Our results indicated that the higher-group radiations within hemimetabolous Heteroptera were simultaneously with those of holometabolous Coleoptera and Diptera which took place in the Triassic. While the aquatic habitat was colonized by Nepomorpha already in the Triassic, the Gerromorpha independently adapted to the semi-aquatic habitat in the Early Jurassic. PMID:22384163

Fine Mapping Causal Variants with an Approximate Bayesian Method Using Marginal Test Statistics.

PubMed

Chen, Wenan; Larrabee, Beth R; Ovsyannikova, Inna G; Kennedy, Richard B; Haralambieva, Iana H; Poland, Gregory A; Schaid, Daniel J

2015-07-01

Two recently developed fine-mapping methods, CAVIAR and PAINTOR, demonstrate better performance over other fine-mapping methods. They also have the advantage of using only the marginal test statistics and the correlation among SNPs. Both methods leverage the fact that the marginal test statistics asymptotically follow a multivariate normal distribution and are likelihood based. However, their relationship with Bayesian fine mapping, such as BIMBAM, is not clear. In this study, we first show that CAVIAR and BIMBAM are actually approximately equivalent to each other. This leads to a fine-mapping method using marginal test statistics in the Bayesian framework, which we call CAVIAR Bayes factor (CAVIARBF). Another advantage of the Bayesian framework is that it can answer both association and fine-mapping questions. We also used simulations to compare CAVIARBF with other methods under different numbers of causal variants. The results showed that both CAVIARBF and BIMBAM have better performance than PAINTOR and other methods. Compared to BIMBAM, CAVIARBF has the advantage of using only marginal test statistics and takes about one-quarter to one-fifth of the running time. We applied different methods on two independent cohorts of the same phenotype. Results showed that CAVIARBF, BIMBAM, and PAINTOR selected the same top 3 SNPs; however, CAVIARBF and BIMBAM had better consistency in selecting the top 10 ranked SNPs between the two cohorts. Software is available at https://bitbucket.org/Wenan/caviarbf. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

1992-01-01

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Bed Bug Education for School Maintenance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henriksen, Missy

2012-01-01

Bed bugs are a growing problem, not only in homes and hotels, but also in schools and colleges. Facility administrators and staff need to understand the bed bug resurgence and develop best practices to deal with an infestation. In this article, the author offers tips for preventing and treating bed bugs in school and university settings.

Stink bug host preferences: colonization, oviposition, and feeding on cotton.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Relative colonization rates of stink bug species among host crops grown in the Southeastern US are needed to parameterize a landscape model that seeks to predict stink bug populations in Bt cotton. We sampled stink bugs in Bt cotton, non-Bt cotton, soybean and peanuts over 3 years and 3 sites in the...

Dynamics of bed bug infestations in three low-income housing communities with various bed bug management programs.

PubMed

Wang, Changlu; Eiden, Amanda; Singh, Narinderpal; Zha, Chen; Wang, Desen; Cooper, Richard

2018-06-01

Infestations of the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L., have become common in low-income communities in the USA over the last 15 years. We evaluated community-based integrated pest management (IPM) programs for reducing bed bug infestations. Two housing authorities (Bayonne and Hackensack) implemented bed bug IPM programs. A third housing authority (Paterson) was used as the control site. Building-wide surveys were conducted in all communities, three times, to evaluate the effectiveness of the IPM programs. From 0 to 24 months, the infestation rate at Bayonne, Hackensack, and Paterson decreased by 49, 64, and 26%, respectively. The two sites that adopted IPM achieved faster bed bug elimination than the control site. The bed bug introduction rate over a 24-month period at Bayonne, Hackensack, and Paterson was 7, 3, and 11%, respectively. The introduction rate was positively associated with the initial infestation rate. Residents from buildings enrolled in IPM programs were more satisfied with the bed bug control services than residents from the control site. IPM programs were more effective in reducing bed bug infestations than traditional pest control services, but many factors contributed to the lower than desired level of reduction in infestation rate. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Evaluation of a model community-wide bed bug management program in affordable housing.

PubMed

Cooper, Richard A; Wang, Changlu; Singh, Narinderpal

2016-01-01

Low-income apartment communities in the United States are suffering from disproportionally high bed bug, Cimex lectularius L., infestations owing to lack of effective monitoring and treatment. Studies examining the effectiveness of integrated pest management (IPM) for the control of bed bugs in affordable housing have been limited to small subsets of bed-bug-infested apartments, rather than at the apartment community level. We developed, implemented and evaluated a complex-wide IPM program for bed bugs in an affordable housing community. Proactive inspections and biweekly treatments using a combination of non-chemical and chemical methods until bed bugs were not detected for three biweekly monitoring visits were key elements of the IPM program. A total of 55 bed-bug-infested apartments were identified during the initial inspection. Property management was unaware of 71% of these infestations. Over the next 12 months, 14 additional infested apartments were identified. The IPM program resulted in a 98% reduction in bed bug counts among treated apartments and reduced infestation rates from 15 to 2.2% after 12 months. Adopting a complex-wide bed bug IPM program, incorporating proactive monitoring, and biweekly treatments of infested apartments utilizing non-chemical and chemical methods can successfully reduce infestation rates to very low levels. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Behavioral Responses of the Bed Bug to Permethrin-Impregnated ActiveGuard™ Fabric

PubMed Central

Jones, Susan C.; Bryant, Joshua L.; Harrison, Scott A.

2013-01-01

ActiveGuard™ Mattress Liners have been used to control house dust mites, and they also are commercially available as an integrated pest management tool for use against bed bugs (Cimex lectularius). The aim of our study was to evaluate responses of numerous populations of the bed bug to the permethrin-impregnated fabric, with particular regard to contact toxicity, repellency, and feeding inhibition. Continuous exposure to ActiveGuard fabric resulted in rapid intoxication for three of four populations, with 87 to 100% of moderately pyrethroid-resistant and susceptible bed bugs succumbing by 1 d. In comparison, a highly resistant population reached 22% mortality at 10 d. Video data revealed that bed bugs readily traversed ActiveGuard fabric and spent a considerable amount of time moving about and resting on it during a 12-h period. ActiveGuard fabric was non-repellent to bed bugs from five tested populations. Furthermore, significantly fewer bed bugs successfully fed to repletion through ActiveGuard fabric than through blank fabric for the five populations. With just 30 min of feeding exposure, mortality ranged from 4% to 83%, depending upon the bed bug strain. These laboratory studies indicate that ActiveGuard liners adversely affected bed bugs from diverse populations. PMID:26464388

Effects of Ultralow Oxygen and Vacuum Treatments on Bed Bug (Heteroptera: Cimicidae) Survival.

PubMed

Liu, Yong-Biao; Haynes, Kenneth F

2016-04-22

Control of bed bugs is problematic, balancing among efficacy, safety, and cost. In this study, ultralow oxygen (ULO) and vacuum treatments were tested on bed bugs to develop a safer, effective, and environmentally friendly solution to kill bed bugs on infested items. ULO treatments were established by flushing sealed enclosures with nitrogen. All life stages of bed bugs were found to be susceptible to ULO and vacuum treatments, and efficacy of the treatments increased with reduced oxygen levels, increased treatment time, and temperature. In the ULO treatments, 100% mortality of bed bug nymphs and adults and >98% mortality of bed bug eggs were achieved in the 8-h treatment under 0.1% O 2 atmosphere at 30°C. Different levels of vacuum that yielded different oxygen levels were tested on all life stages of bed bugs. The susceptibility of different stages to vacuum treatments increased from nymphs to adults to eggs. Complete control of all life stages was achieved in 12 h under -982 mbar (-29.0 inHg) vacuum at 30°C. This study demonstrated that bed bugs were very susceptible to low oxygen stresses and ULO and vacuum treatments have potential to be used as effective and safe treatments to decontaminate bed bug-infested removable objects. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016.This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.

Climbing ability of teneral and sclerotized adult bed bugs and assessment of adhesive properties of the exoskeletal fluid using atomic force microscopy.

PubMed

Hinson, Kevin R; Reukov, Vladimir; Benson, Eric P; Zungoli, Patricia A; Bridges, William C; Ellis, Brittany R; Song, Jinbo

2017-01-01

We observed that teneral adults (<1 h post-molt) of Cimex lectularius L. appeared more adept at climbing a smooth surface compared to sclerotized adults. Differences in climbing ability on a smooth surface based on sclerotization status were quantified by measuring the height to which bed bugs climbed when confined within a glass vial. The average maximum height climbed by teneral (T) bed bugs (n = 30, height climbed = 4.69 cm) differed significantly (P< 0.01) from recently sclerotized (RS) bed bugs (n = 30, height climbed = 1.73 cm at ~48 h post molt), sclerotized group 1 (S1) bed bugs (n = 30, S1 = 2.42 cm at >72 h), and sclerotized group 2 (S2) bed bugs (n = 30, height climbed = 2.64 cm at >72 h post molt). When heights from all climbing events were summed, teneral bed bugs (650.8 cm climbed) differed significantly (P< 0.01) from recently sclerotized (82 cm climbed) and sclerotized (group 1 = 104.6 cm climbed, group 2 = 107.8 cm climbed) bed bugs. These findings suggested that the external surface of teneral bed bug exoskeletons possess an adhesive property. Using atomic force microscopy (AFM), we found that adhesion force of an exoskeletal (presumably molting) fluid decreased almost five-fold from 88 to 17 nN within an hour of molting. Our findings may have implications for laboratory safety and the effectiveness of bed bug traps, barriers, and biomimetic-based adhesives.

Effect of Moxidectin on Bed Bug Feeding, Development, Fecundity, and Survivorship

PubMed Central

Zha, Chen; Sheele, Johnathan Michael

2017-01-01

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), is a blood-feeding ectoparasite which experienced world-wide resurgence during recent decades. The control of bed bugs is often challenging, due to their cryptic nature and resistance to commonly used insecticides. In this study, we evaluated the effect of the antiparasitic drug moxidectin on bed bug survival, reproduction, and development. The LC50 (lethal concentration to kill half the members of a tested population) of moxidectin against bed bug male adults, female adults, and large nymphs were 52.7 (95% CI (confidence interval): 39.5–70.8), 29.3 (95% CI: 20.7–40.5), and 29.1 ng/mL (95% CI: 23.3–35.3), respectively. Moxidectin (≥ 25 ng/mL) reduced egg laying of bed bug females, but showed no significant effect on egg hatching. One time feeding on rabbit blood containing 20 and 40 ng/mL moxidectin showed no negative effects in bed bug feeding and blood meal ingestion, but significantly reduced digestion rates and nymph molting rates. Although moxidectin at concentrations of 20 and 40 ng/mL only caused moderate mortality in bed bugs, it significantly interrupted digestion, development, and oviposition of survived bed bugs for at least one week after feeding. Moxidectin is a promising supplement of the existing bed bug control materials if its use on humans can be approved in the future. PMID:28973981

Adjacent Habitat Influence on Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) Densities and the Associated Damage at Field Corn and Soybean Edges

PubMed Central

Venugopal, P. Dilip; Coffey, Peter L.; Dively, Galen P.; Lamp, William O.

2014-01-01

The local dispersal of polyphagous, mobile insects within agricultural systems impacts pest management. In the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, stink bugs, especially the invasive Halyomorpha halys (Stål 1855), contribute to economic losses across a range of cropping systems. Here, we characterized the density of stink bugs along the field edges of field corn and soybean at different study sites. Specifically, we examined the influence of adjacent managed and natural habitats on the density of stink bugs in corn and soybean fields at different distances along transects from the field edge. We also quantified damage to corn grain, and to soybean pods and seeds, and measured yield in relation to the observed stink bug densities at different distances from field edge. Highest density of stink bugs was limited to the edge of both corn and soybean fields. Fields adjacent to wooded, crop and building habitats harbored higher densities of stink bugs than those adjacent to open habitats. Damage to corn kernels and to soybean pods and seeds increased with stink bug density in plots and was highest at the field edges. Stink bug density was also negatively associated with yield per plant in soybean. The spatial pattern of stink bugs in both corn and soybeans, with significant edge effects, suggests the use of pest management strategies for crop placement in the landscape, as well as spatially targeted pest suppression within fields. PMID:25295593

Adjacent habitat influence on stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) densities and the associated damage at field corn and soybean edges.

PubMed

Venugopal, P Dilip; Coffey, Peter L; Dively, Galen P; Lamp, William O

2014-01-01

The local dispersal of polyphagous, mobile insects within agricultural systems impacts pest management. In the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, stink bugs, especially the invasive Halyomorpha halys (Stål 1855), contribute to economic losses across a range of cropping systems. Here, we characterized the density of stink bugs along the field edges of field corn and soybean at different study sites. Specifically, we examined the influence of adjacent managed and natural habitats on the density of stink bugs in corn and soybean fields at different distances along transects from the field edge. We also quantified damage to corn grain, and to soybean pods and seeds, and measured yield in relation to the observed stink bug densities at different distances from field edge. Highest density of stink bugs was limited to the edge of both corn and soybean fields. Fields adjacent to wooded, crop and building habitats harbored higher densities of stink bugs than those adjacent to open habitats. Damage to corn kernels and to soybean pods and seeds increased with stink bug density in plots and was highest at the field edges. Stink bug density was also negatively associated with yield per plant in soybean. The spatial pattern of stink bugs in both corn and soybeans, with significant edge effects, suggests the use of pest management strategies for crop placement in the landscape, as well as spatially targeted pest suppression within fields.

Comparison of Three Bed Bug Management Strategies in a Low-Income Apartment Building

PubMed Central

Wang, Changlu; Saltzmann, Kurt; Bennett, Gary; Gibb, Timothy

2012-01-01

Bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) infestations are currently controlled by a variety of non-chemical and chemical methods. There have been few studies on the comparative effectiveness of these control techniques. We evaluated three bed bug management strategies in an apartment building: (1) non-chemical methods only (n = 9); (2) insecticides only (n = 6); and (3) integrated pest management including both non-chemical methods and insecticides (n = 9). The apartments were one-bedroom units occupied by seniors or people with disabilities. Bed bug numbers in each apartment were determined by visual inspection and/or installing intercepting devices under bed and sofa legs. The median (min, max) bed bug counts in the non-chemical methods only, insecticides only, and integrated pest management (IPM) treatment were: 4 (1, 57), 19 (1, 250), and 14 (1, 219), respectively prior to the treatments. The apartments were retreated if found necessary during biweekly to monthly inspections. After 10 weeks, bed bugs were found to be eliminated from 67, 33, and 44% of the apartments in the three treatment groups, respectively. The final (after 10 weeks) median (min, max) bed bug counts in the non-chemical methods only, insecticides only, and IPM treatment were: 0 (0, 134), 11.5 (0, 58), and 1 (0, 38), respectively. There were no significant differences in the speed of bed bug count reduction or the final bed bug counts. Lack of resident cooperation partially contributed to the failure in eliminating bed bugs from some of the apartments. Results of this study suggest that non-chemical methods can effectively eliminate bed bugs in lightly infested apartments. PMID:26466533

Body size and hosts of Triatoma infestans populations affect the size of bloodmeal contents and female fecundity in rural northwestern Argentina

PubMed Central

Fernández, María del Pilar; Cecere, María Carla; Cohen, Joel E.

2017-01-01

Human sleeping quarters (domiciles) and chicken coops are key source habitats of Triatoma infestans—the principal vector of the infection that causes Chagas disease—in rural communities in northern Argentina. Here we investigated the links among individual bug bloodmeal contents (BMC, mg), female fecundity, body length (L, mm), host blood sources and habitats. We tested whether L, habitat and host blood conferred relative fitness advantages using generalized linear mixed-effects models and a multimodel inference approach with model averaging. The data analyzed include 769 late-stage triatomines collected in 120 sites from six habitats in 87 houses in Figueroa, Santiago del Estero, during austral spring. L correlated positively with other body-size surrogates and was modified by habitat type, bug stage and recent feeding. Bugs from chicken coops were significantly larger than pig-corral and kitchen bugs. The best-fitting model of log BMC included habitat, a recent feeding, bug stage, log Lc (mean-centered log L) and all two-way interactions including log Lc. Human- and chicken-fed bugs had significantly larger BMC than bugs fed on other hosts whereas goat-fed bugs ranked last, in consistency with average blood-feeding rates. Fecundity was maximal in chicken-fed bugs from chicken coops, submaximal in human- and pig-fed bugs, and minimal in goat-fed bugs. This study is the first to reveal the allometric effects of body-size surrogates on BMC and female fecundity in a large set of triatomine populations occupying multiple habitats, and discloses the links between body size, microsite temperatures and various fitness components that affect the risks of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi. PMID:29211791

Aggregation and Association of NDVI, Boll Injury, and Stink Bugs in North Carolina Cotton.

PubMed

Reisig, Dominic D; Reay-Jones, F P F; Meijer, A D

2015-01-01

Sampling of herbivorous stink bugs in southeastern U.S. cotton remains problematic. Remote sensing was explored to improve sampling of these pests and associated boll injury. Two adjacent 14.5-ha cotton fields were grid sampled in 2011 and 2012 by collecting stink bug adults and bolls every week during the third, fourth, and fifth weeks of bloom. Satellite remote sensing data were collected during the third week of bloom during both years, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values were calculated. Stink bugs were spatially aggregated on the third week of bloom in 2011. Boll injury from stink bugs was spatially aggregated during the fourth week of bloom in 2012. The NDVI values were aggregated during both years. There was a positive association and correlation between stink bug numbers and NDVI values, as well as injured bolls and NDVI values, during the third week of bloom in 2011. During the third week of bloom in 2012, NDVI values were negatively correlated with stink bug numbers. During the fourth week of bloom in 2011, stink bug numbers and boll injury were both positively associated and correlated with NDVI values. During the fourth week of bloom in 2012, stink bugs were negatively correlated with NDVI values, and boll injury was negatively associated and correlated with NDVI values. This study suggests the potential of remote sensing as a tool to assist with sampling stink bugs in cotton, although more research is needed using NDVI and other plant measurements to predict stink bug injury. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Body size and hosts of Triatoma infestans populations affect the size of bloodmeal contents and female fecundity in rural northwestern Argentina.

PubMed

Gürtler, Ricardo E; Fernández, María Del Pilar; Cecere, María Carla; Cohen, Joel E

2017-12-01

Human sleeping quarters (domiciles) and chicken coops are key source habitats of Triatoma infestans-the principal vector of the infection that causes Chagas disease-in rural communities in northern Argentina. Here we investigated the links among individual bug bloodmeal contents (BMC, mg), female fecundity, body length (L, mm), host blood sources and habitats. We tested whether L, habitat and host blood conferred relative fitness advantages using generalized linear mixed-effects models and a multimodel inference approach with model averaging. The data analyzed include 769 late-stage triatomines collected in 120 sites from six habitats in 87 houses in Figueroa, Santiago del Estero, during austral spring. L correlated positively with other body-size surrogates and was modified by habitat type, bug stage and recent feeding. Bugs from chicken coops were significantly larger than pig-corral and kitchen bugs. The best-fitting model of log BMC included habitat, a recent feeding, bug stage, log Lc (mean-centered log L) and all two-way interactions including log Lc. Human- and chicken-fed bugs had significantly larger BMC than bugs fed on other hosts whereas goat-fed bugs ranked last, in consistency with average blood-feeding rates. Fecundity was maximal in chicken-fed bugs from chicken coops, submaximal in human- and pig-fed bugs, and minimal in goat-fed bugs. This study is the first to reveal the allometric effects of body-size surrogates on BMC and female fecundity in a large set of triatomine populations occupying multiple habitats, and discloses the links between body size, microsite temperatures and various fitness components that affect the risks of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi.

The Odorant Receptor Co-Receptor from the Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius L

PubMed Central

Hansen, Immo A.; Rodriguez, Stacy D.; Drake, Lisa L.; Price, David P.; Blakely, Brittny N.; Hammond, John I.; Tsujimoto, Hitoshi; Monroy, Erika Y.; Maio, William A.; Romero, Alvaro

2014-01-01

Recently, the bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. has re-emerged as a serious and growing problem in many parts of the world. Presence of resistant bed bugs and the difficulty to eliminate them has renewed interest in alternative control tactics. Similar to other haematophagous arthropods, bed bugs rely on their olfactory system to detect semiochemicals in the environment. Previous studies have morphologically characterized olfactory organs of bed bugs’ antenna and have physiologically evaluated the responses of olfactory receptor neurons (ORNs) to host-derived chemicals. To date, odorant binding proteins (OBPs) and odorant receptors (ORs) associated with these olfaction processes have not been studied in bed bugs. Chemoreception in insects requires formation of heteromeric complexes of ORs and a universal OR coreceptor (Orco). Orco is the constant chain of every odorant receptor in insects and is critical for insect olfaction but does not directly bind to odorants. Orco agonists and antagonists have been suggested as high-value targets for the development of novel insect repellents. In this study, we have performed RNAseq of bed bug sensory organs and identified several odorant receptors as well as Orco. We characterized Orco expression and investigated the effect of chemicals targeting Orco on bed bug behavior and reproduction. We have identified partial cDNAs of six C. lectularius OBPs and 16 ORs. Full length bed bug Orco was cloned and sequenced. Orco is widely expressed in different parts of the bed bug including OR neurons and spermatozoa. Treatment of bed bugs with the agonist VUAA1 changed bed bug pheromone-induced aggregation behavior and inactivated spermatozoa. We have described and characterized for the first time OBPs, ORs and Orco in bed bugs. Given the importance of these molecules in chemoreception of this insect they are interesting targets for the development of novel insect behavior modifiers. PMID:25411789

Bayesian stable isotope mixing models

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...

Bayesian Parameter Inference and Model Selection by Population Annealing in Systems Biology

PubMed Central

Murakami, Yohei

2014-01-01

Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named “posterior parameter ensemble”. We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor. PMID:25089832

Probability, statistics, and computational science.

PubMed

Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

2012-01-01

In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

Colonization preference of Eushcistus servus and Nezara viridula in transgenic cotton varieties, peanut and soybean

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Because cotton, peanuts and soybean crops are often grown in close proximity and are hosts for the major pest stink bug species: -- the southern green stink bug, the brown stink bug, and the green stink bug – in the region, we determined colonization preference of these species among the crops to cl...

Ability of the bed bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) defensive secretions (E)-2-hexenal and (E)-2-octenal to attract adult bed bugs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate and timely surveillance of bed bug infestations is critical for development of effective control strategies. While the bed bug produced volatiles (E)-2-hexenal and (E)-2-octenal are considered defensive secretions, through use of EthoVision® video-tracking software we demonstrate that low ...

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

The researcher and the consultant: from testing to probability statements.

PubMed

Hamra, Ghassan B; Stang, Andreas; Poole, Charles

2015-09-01

In the first instalment of this series, Stang and Poole provided an overview of Fisher significance testing (ST), Neyman-Pearson null hypothesis testing (NHT), and their unfortunate and unintended offspring, null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to elucidating the distinction between the first two and the evolution of the third, the authors alluded to alternative models of statistical inference; namely, Bayesian statistics. Bayesian inference has experienced a revival in recent decades, with many researchers advocating for its use as both a complement and an alternative to NHT and ST. This article will continue in the direction of the first instalment, providing practicing researchers with an introduction to Bayesian inference. Our work will draw on the examples and discussion of the previous dialogue.

Spectral likelihood expansions for Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Joseph B.; Sudret, Bruno

2016-03-01

A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this spectral likelihood expansion all statistical quantities of interest can be calculated semi-analytically. The posterior is formally represented as the product of a reference density and a linear combination of polynomial basis functions. Both the model evidence and the posterior moments are related to the expansion coefficients. This formulation avoids Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and allows one to make use of linear least squares instead. The pros and cons of spectral Bayesian inference are discussed and demonstrated on the basis of simple applications from classical statistics and inverse modeling.

On a full Bayesian inference for force reconstruction problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aucejo, M.; De Smet, O.

2018-05-01

In a previous paper, the authors introduced a flexible methodology for reconstructing mechanical sources in the frequency domain from prior local information on both their nature and location over a linear and time invariant structure. The proposed approach was derived from Bayesian statistics, because of its ability in mathematically accounting for experimenter's prior knowledge. However, since only the Maximum a Posteriori estimate was computed, the posterior uncertainty about the regularized solution given the measured vibration field, the mechanical model and the regularization parameter was not assessed. To answer this legitimate question, this paper fully exploits the Bayesian framework to provide, from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, credible intervals and other statistical measures (mean, median, mode) for all the parameters of the force reconstruction problem.

The Misidentified Identifiability Problem of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doroudi, Shayan; Brunskill, Emma

2017-01-01

In this paper, we investigate two purported problems with Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), a popular statistical model of student learning: "identifiability" and "semantic model degeneracy." In 2007, Beck and Chang stated that BKT is susceptible to an "identifiability problem"--various models with different…

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

PubMed

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climbing ability of teneral and sclerotized adult bed bugs and assessment of adhesive properties of the exoskeletal fluid using atomic force microscopy

PubMed Central

Zungoli, Patricia A.; Bridges, William C.; Ellis, Brittany R.; Song, Jinbo

2017-01-01

We observed that teneral adults (<1 h post-molt) of Cimex lectularius L. appeared more adept at climbing a smooth surface compared to sclerotized adults. Differences in climbing ability on a smooth surface based on sclerotization status were quantified by measuring the height to which bed bugs climbed when confined within a glass vial. The average maximum height climbed by teneral (T) bed bugs (n = 30, height climbed = 4.69 cm) differed significantly (P< 0.01) from recently sclerotized (RS) bed bugs (n = 30, height climbed = 1.73 cm at ~48 h post molt), sclerotized group 1 (S1) bed bugs (n = 30, S1 = 2.42 cm at >72 h), and sclerotized group 2 (S2) bed bugs (n = 30, height climbed = 2.64 cm at >72 h post molt). When heights from all climbing events were summed, teneral bed bugs (650.8 cm climbed) differed significantly (P< 0.01) from recently sclerotized (82 cm climbed) and sclerotized (group 1 = 104.6 cm climbed, group 2 = 107.8 cm climbed) bed bugs. These findings suggested that the external surface of teneral bed bug exoskeletons possess an adhesive property. Using atomic force microscopy (AFM), we found that adhesion force of an exoskeletal (presumably molting) fluid decreased almost five-fold from 88 to 17 nN within an hour of molting. Our findings may have implications for laboratory safety and the effectiveness of bed bug traps, barriers, and biomimetic-based adhesives. PMID:29244819

The Common bed bug (Cimex lectularius) in metropolitan France. Survey on the attitudes and practices of private- and public-sector professionals

PubMed Central

Jourdain, Frédéric; Delaunay, Pascal; Bérenger, Jean-Michel; Perrin, Yvon; Robert, Vincent

2016-01-01

The Common bed bug, Cimex lectularius, had virtually disappeared from France in the 1950s; however, a worldwide resurgence of bed bugs (C. lectularius and C. hemipterus) has been observed since the 1990s. To document modern pest control activities for the management of bed bugs, a survey was conducted in metropolitan France among the two main categories of professionals regularly called upon to deal with the control of infestations: Municipal Health and Safety Services (MHSSs) and private Pest Management Companies (PMCs). These professionals responded to a questionnaire targeting their knowledge, attitude and practices related to the process for diagnosing a bed bug infestation and the processes taken to actually control an infestation. There were 68 responses received from MHSSs and 51 from the PMCs. The responses indicate that every single département (French administrative division) in metropolitan France has witnessed at least one intervention for bed bugs. Among the criteria considered sufficient to confirm a bed bug infestation, direct observation of bugs was the most commonly cited response. Faced with an infestation, most PMCs used a combination of non-chemical and chemical methods, and systematically performed two treatments. This survey is the first of professionals involved in bed bug control in metropolitan France and confirms the growing importance of bed bugs as a public health pest. Establishing a database to monitor this emerging pest would improve the understanding of the distribution of these insects, help guide educational requirements, identify research needs and assist in ensuring that the most appropriate control practices are undertaken. PMID:27605306

Toxicities of Selected Essential Oils, Silicone Oils, and Paraffin Oil against the Common Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Zha, Chen; Wang, Changlu; Li, Andrew

2018-02-09

The common bed bug [Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae)] and tropical bed bug [Cimex hemipterus F. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae)] resurged in the United States and many other countries over the past decades. The need for safe and effective bed bug control products propelled the development of numerous 'green insecticides', mostly with essential oils listed as active ingredients. Various inorganic and organic oils also were used for bed bug management. However, there are no published studies on their toxicities against bed bugs. In this study, we screened 18 essential oils, three silicone oils, and paraffin oil (C5-20 paraffins) for their toxicities against bed bugs. All the oils exhibited insecticidal activity in topical assays. Their toxicities varied significantly; all of the evaluated essential oils were less effective than silicone oils and paraffin oil. The LD50 values of the most effective essential oil (blood orange), paraffin oil, and the most effective silicone oil (dodecamethylpentasiloxane) are 0.184 ± 0.018, 0.069 ± 0.012, and 0.036 ± 0.005 mg per bug, respectively. Direct spray of 1% water solution of 3-[hydroxy (polyethyleneoxy) propyl] heptamethyltrisiloxane, the only silicone oil that mixes well with water, resulted in 92% bed bug mortality after 1 d. Results of this study indicate silicone oils and paraffin oil have the potential to be used as safer alternative bed bug control materials. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus (Hemiptera: Miridae) effects of insect density and bloom period of infestation on cotton damage and yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus Distant (Hemiptera: Miridae), has emerged as a threat to cotton in South Texas, causing boll damage similar to boll-feeding stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). Verde plant bugs were released into caged cotton for a one-week period to characterize the effec...

Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; White, Ian R; Jackson, Dan; Spiegelhalter, David J; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-20

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Knockdown of the Chromatin Remodeling Gene Brahma by RNA Interference Reduces Reproductive Fitness and Lifespan in Common Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Basnet, Sanjay; Kamble, Shripat T

2018-05-04

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) is a nuisance household pest causing significant medical and economic impacts. RNA interference (RNAi) of genes that are involved in vital physiological processes can serve as potential RNAi targets for insect control. Brahma is an ATPase subunit of a chromatin-remodeling complex involved in transcription of several genes for cellular processes, most importantly the homeotic genes. In this study, we used a microinjection technique to deliver double stranded RNA into female bed bugs. Delivery of 0.05 and 0.5 µg/insect of brahma dsRNA directly into hemocele resulted substantial reduction in oviposition. Eggs laid by bed bugs receiving both doses of brahma dsRNA exhibited significantly lower hatching percentage as compared to controls. In addition, brahma RNAi in female bed bugs caused significant mortality. Our results disclosed the potential of brahma RNAi to suppress bed bug population through injection of specific dsRNA, suggesting a critical function of this gene in bed bugs' reproduction and survival. Based on our data, brahma can be a promising RNAi target for suppression of bed bug population.

The Let's Beat the Bug! Campaign--A Statewide Active Public Education Against Bed Bugs in Minnesota.

PubMed

Shindelar, Amelia K

2017-03-01

Bed bugs continue to affect society and place a burden on public health systems. Experiences of the Let’s Beat the Bug! campaign are presented to help information networks prepare personnel to effectively address questions about this pest. Following recommendations from the Minnesota state bed bug working group, an information line was established and the Web site (www.bedbugs.umn.edu) was revised. Data from both services were analyzed by geographic region and type of information requested. InformationLine primarily assisted people who had issues dealing with failed treatments and landlord reluctance to take effective measures against this pest. Web site visits indicated a preference for learning do-it-yourself control methods. There were commonalities in the information sought from both services. People were often looking for reassurance, in addition to information about basic prevention and control of bed bugs. We present here priority topics that public health personnel should be prepared to answer if they receive inquiries about bed bugs.

A door-to-door survey of bed bug (Cimex lectularius) infestations in row homes in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Wu, Yage; Tracy, Dylan M; Barbarin, Alexis M; Barbu, Corentin M; Levy, Michael Z

2014-07-01

We conducted a door-to-door survey in a residential census tract of Philadelphia to estimate the prevalence and spatial patterns of recent bed bug infestations. We interviewed 596 residents, of whom 66 (11.1%) reported recent bed bug infestations. We confirmed current infestations in a subset of 15 (68.2%) of 22 inspected households. Most residents reported that their infestation began within the past year (2012-2013). We found no correlation between property value and infestation status. Spatial analyses showed significant clustering of bed bug infestations only at fine scales, suggesting limited active dispersal of the insects. Residents used a large variety of treatment methods to eliminate bed bugs, but only 48.1% reported success. Our results provide a prevalence estimate of recent bed bug infestations and highlight the importance of passive rather than active dispersal of bed bugs even among dense urban row homes. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Between-group transmission dynamics of the swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius.

PubMed

Brown, Charles R; Brown, Mary Bomberger

2005-06-01

The parasitic cimicid swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius, is the principal invertebrate vector for Buggy Creek virus (BCRV) and has also been associated with Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus. To help understand the spread of this vector, we experimentally measured the transmission of O. vicarius between groups (colonies) of its main host, the cliff swallow (Petrochelidonpyrrhonota), in the field. Transmission of bugs between colonies varied significantly with year, size of the colony, and week within the season. Bug immigration into sites tended to peak in mid-summer. Swallow nests in larger colonies had more consistent rates of bug introduction than did nests in small colonies, but within a colony a given nest's weekly immigrant-bug count varied widely across the season. Transmission of O. vicarius between host social groups follows broadly predictable seasonal patterns, but there is nevertheless temporal and spatial heterogeneity in bug transmission. By understanding how long-distance movement by this vector varies in time and space, we can better predict where and when BCRV epizootics may occur.

Bayesian approach to non-Gaussian field statistics for diffusive broadband terahertz pulses.

PubMed

Pearce, Jeremy; Jian, Zhongping; Mittleman, Daniel M

2005-11-01

We develop a closed-form expression for the probability distribution function for the field components of a diffusive broadband wave propagating through a random medium. We consider each spectral component to provide an individual observation of a random variable, the configurationally averaged spectral intensity. Since the intensity determines the variance of the field distribution at each frequency, this random variable serves as the Bayesian prior that determines the form of the non-Gaussian field statistics. This model agrees well with experimental results.

Probabilistic Model for Untargeted Peak Detection in LC-MS Using Bayesian Statistics.

PubMed

Woldegebriel, Michael; Vivó-Truyols, Gabriel

2015-07-21

We introduce a novel Bayesian probabilistic peak detection algorithm for liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy (LC-MS). The final probabilistic result allows the user to make a final decision about which points in a chromatogram are affected by a chromatographic peak and which ones are only affected by noise. The use of probabilities contrasts with the traditional method in which a binary answer is given, relying on a threshold. By contrast, with the Bayesian peak detection presented here, the values of probability can be further propagated into other preprocessing steps, which will increase (or decrease) the importance of chromatographic regions into the final results. The present work is based on the use of the statistical overlap theory of component overlap from Davis and Giddings (Davis, J. M.; Giddings, J. Anal. Chem. 1983, 55, 418-424) as prior probability in the Bayesian formulation. The algorithm was tested on LC-MS Orbitrap data and was able to successfully distinguish chemical noise from actual peaks without any data preprocessing.

Bug Distribution and Pattern Classification.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-15

Center Educational Psychology University of Leyden San Diego. CA 92152 Urbana. IL 61801 Education Research Center oernaavelaan 2 Dr. Erling B. Andersen...Dr. Dattprasad rlivgi 23314 EN Leyden Department of Statistics Syracuse University The NETHERLANDS 3tudiestraede 6 Department of Psychology 1455...Rebecca Hetter Learning R&D Center Navy Personnel R&D Center University of Pittsburgh Ms. Kathleen Moreno Code 62 Pittsburgh, PA 15260 Navy Personnel R

Stress Tolerance of Bed Bugs: A Review of Factors That Cause Trauma to Cimex lectularius and C. Hemipterus

PubMed Central

Benoit, Joshua B.

2011-01-01

Recent emergence of bed bugs (Cimex spp.) has prompted a significant expansion of research devoted to this pest. The ability to survive and recover from stress has significant implications on the distribution and survival of insects, and bed bugs are no exception. Research on bed bug stress tolerance has shown considerable progress and necessitates a review on this topic. Bed bugs have an extraordinary ability to resist dehydration between bloodmeals, and this represents a critical factor allowing their prolonged survival when no host is available. High relative humidities are detrimental to bed bugs, leading to reduced survival in comparison to those held at lower relative humidities. Continual exposure of bed bugs, eggs and mobile stages, to temperatures below freezing and short term exposure (=1 h) to temperatures below −16 to −18 °C results in mortality. The upper thermal limit for short term exposure of eggs, nymphs and adults is between 40–45 °C for the common (Cimex lectularius) and tropical (C. hemipterus) bed bugs. Long-term exposure to temperatures above 35 °C results in significant reduction in survival of mobile bed bugs. Eggs for C. lectularius and C. hemipterus are no longer viable when held below 10 °C or above 37 °C throughout embryogenesis. Blood feeding, although necessary for survival and reproduction, is discussed as a stress due to thermal and osmotic fluctuations that result from ingesting a warm bloodmeal from a vertebrate host. Cold, heat, water stress and blood feeding prompted the expression of heat shock proteins (Hsps). Pesticide application is a common human-induced stress for urban pests, and recent studies have documented pesticide resistance in many bed bug populations. High levels of traumatic insemination (mating) of bed bugs has been linked to reduced survival and fecundity along with possibly exposing individuals to microbial infections after cuticular penetration by the paramere (=male reproductive organ), thus represents a form of sexual stress. Additionally, less common stress types such as microbial infections that have been documented in bed bugs will be discussed. Overall, this review provides a current update of research related to bed bug stress tolerance and how their ability to resist stressful conditions has lead to their expansion and proliferation. PMID:26467619

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Rediscovery of Good-Turing estimators via Bayesian nonparametrics.

PubMed

Favaro, Stefano; Nipoti, Bernardo; Teh, Yee Whye

2016-03-01

The problem of estimating discovery probabilities originated in the context of statistical ecology, and in recent years it has become popular due to its frequent appearance in challenging applications arising in genetics, bioinformatics, linguistics, designs of experiments, machine learning, etc. A full range of statistical approaches, parametric and nonparametric as well as frequentist and Bayesian, has been proposed for estimating discovery probabilities. In this article, we investigate the relationships between the celebrated Good-Turing approach, which is a frequentist nonparametric approach developed in the 1940s, and a Bayesian nonparametric approach recently introduced in the literature. Specifically, under the assumption of a two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet prior, we show that Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities are asymptotically equivalent, for a large sample size, to suitably smoothed Good-Turing estimators. As a by-product of this result, we introduce and investigate a methodology for deriving exact and asymptotic credible intervals to be associated with the Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study and the analysis of Expressed Sequence Tags data generated by sequencing a benchmark complementary DNA library. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

Find a Bed Bug Pesticide Product

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Introduces the Bed Bug Product Search Tool, to help consumers find EPA-registered pesticides for bed bug infestation control. Inclusion in this database is not an endorsement. Always follow label directions carefully.

Plant growth stage-specific injury and economic injury level for verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus (Hemiptera: Miridae), on cotton: Effect of bloom period of infestation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus Distant (Hemiptera: Miridae), has emerged as a threat to cotton in South Texas, causing boll damage similar to boll-feeding stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). Verde plant bugs were released into caged cotton for a one-week period to characterize the effec...

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Getting Rid of Bed Bugs

MedlinePlus

... Science Water A-Z Index Laws & Regulations By Business Sector By ... Rid of Bed Bugs When a bed bug infestation is discovered there are multiple methods for controlling it. Be aware that it will ...

Videos, Webinars, Blogs Related to Bed Bugs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These tools provide practical insight on issues such as integrated pest management (IPM) for schools, bed bug bites, how carpet beetles can help, bed bugs as hitchhikers, and preventing and controlling infestations.

The Common bed bug (Cimex lectularius) in metropolitan France. Survey on the attitudes and practices of private- and public-sector professionals.

PubMed

Jourdain, Frédéric; Delaunay, Pascal; Bérenger, Jean-Michel; Perrin, Yvon; Robert, Vincent

2016-01-01

The Common bed bug, Cimex lectularius, had virtually disappeared from France in the 1950s; however, a worldwide resurgence of bed bugs (C. lectularius and C. hemipterus) has been observed since the 1990s. To document modern pest control activities for the management of bed bugs, a survey was conducted in metropolitan France among the two main categories of professionals regularly called upon to deal with the control of infestations: Municipal Health and Safety Services (MHSSs) and private Pest Management Companies (PMCs). These professionals responded to a questionnaire targeting their knowledge, attitude and practices related to the process for diagnosing a bed bug infestation and the processes taken to actually control an infestation. There were 68 responses received from MHSSs and 51 from the PMCs. The responses indicate that every single département (French administrative division) in metropolitan France has witnessed at least one intervention for bed bugs. Among the criteria considered sufficient to confirm a bed bug infestation, direct observation of bugs was the most commonly cited response. Faced with an infestation, most PMCs used a combination of non-chemical and chemical methods, and systematically performed two treatments. This survey is the first of professionals involved in bed bug control in metropolitan France and confirms the growing importance of bed bugs as a public health pest. Establishing a database to monitor this emerging pest would improve the understanding of the distribution of these insects, help guide educational requirements, identify research needs and assist in ensuring that the most appropriate control practices are undertaken. © F. Jourdain et al., published by EDP Sciences, 2016.

Conditional maximum-entropy method for selecting prior distributions in Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Sumiyoshi

2014-11-01

The conditional maximum-entropy method (abbreviated here as C-MaxEnt) is formulated for selecting prior probability distributions in Bayesian statistics for parameter estimation. This method is inspired by a statistical-mechanical approach to systems governed by dynamics with largely separated time scales and is based on three key concepts: conjugate pairs of variables, dimensionless integration measures with coarse-graining factors and partial maximization of the joint entropy. The method enables one to calculate a prior purely from a likelihood in a simple way. It is shown, in particular, how it not only yields Jeffreys's rules but also reveals new structures hidden behind them.

Bed Bug Clearinghouse by Topic

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This information is intended to help states, communities, and consumers prevent and control bed bug infestations. Topics include bed bug biology and behavior, detection and monitoring, non-chemical techniques such as heat treatment, and pesticides.

Natural curiosities of the Bug river valley near Janów Podlaski as a chance of the specialized tourism development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusznerczuk, Marta

2009-01-01

This paper presents the most precious natural curiosities of the Bug river valley near Janów Podlaski (between Zaczopki and Gnojno). This area is protected as the landscape park - "Podlasie Bug Water Gap". The natural abiotic elements, among others geomorphological ones significantly conditioning unrepeatable charms of the Bug river valley landscape, are regarded as marginal in many papers concerning the unique values of this valley. The presented natural curiosities are arranged in genetic and chronological order. These main relief elements of the Bug river valley are associated with different morphogenetic processes, i.e. the gap formation, the Bug river metamorphosis and gully erosion. These elements can be a chance of the development of specialised tourism, which will influence the economic mobilization of this undeveloped region.

Chemoreception to aggregation pheromones in the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Xiong, Caixing; Liu, Nannan

2017-03-01

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius, is an obligate blood-feeding insect that is resurgent worldwide, posing a threat to human beings through its biting nuisance and disease transmission. Bed bug aggregation pheromone is considered a very promising attractant for use in the monitoring and management of bed bugs, but as yet little is known regarding the sensory physiology of bed bugs related to this pheromone. This study examined how the individual components of aggregation pheromone are perceived by the olfactory receptor neurons (ORNs) housed in different types of olfactory sensilla in bed bugs and the molecular basis for the ORNs' responses to the aggregation pheromone. We found that the ORNs in the D olfactory sensilla played a predominant role in detecting all the components of aggregation pheromone except for histamine, which was only recognized by the C sensilla. Bed bugs' E sensilla, which include four functionally distinct groups, showed only a very weak but variant sensitivity (both excitatory and inhibitory) to the components of aggregation pheromone. Functional tests of 15 odorant receptors (ORs) in response to the components of aggregation pheromone revealed that most of these components were encoded by multiple ORs with various tuning properties. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of how bed bug aggregation pheromone is perceived and recognized in the peripheral olfactory system and will contribute useful information to support the development of synthetic attractants for bed bug monitoring and control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HARMONIZATION OF HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL HEALTH ASSESSMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF BAYESIAN UPDATING TECHNIQUES TO INCORPORATE MECHANISTIC INFORMATION ACROSS SPECIES

EPA Science Inventory

Bayesian statistical techniques have proven useful in clinical and environmental epidemiological applications to evaluate and integrate available information, and in regulatory applications such as the National Ambient Air Quality Assessment for Nitrogen Oxides. A recent special...

Efficient Dependency Computation for Dynamic Hybrid Bayesian Network in On-line System Health Management Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-02

intervals (Neil, Tailor, Marquez, Fenton , & Hear, 2007). This is cumbersome, error prone and usually inaccurate. Even though a universal framework...Science. Neil, M., Tailor, M., Marquez, D., Fenton , N., & Hear. (2007). Inference in Bayesian networks using dynamic discretisation. Statistics

A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tague, Jean M.

1973-01-01

A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…

Personalized Multi-Student Improvement Based on Bayesian Cybernetics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaburlasos, Vassilis G.; Marinagi, Catherine C.; Tsoukalas, Vassilis Th.

2008-01-01

This work presents innovative cybernetics (feedback) techniques based on Bayesian statistics for drawing questions from an Item Bank towards personalized multi-student improvement. A novel software tool, namely "Module for Adaptive Assessment of Students" (or, "MAAS" for short), implements the proposed (feedback) techniques. In conclusion, a pilot…

[Bayesian approach for the cost-effectiveness evaluation of healthcare technologies].

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Gregori, Dario; Brunello, Franco; Veltri, Andrea; Petrinco, Michele; Pagano, Eva

2009-01-01

The development of Bayesian statistical methods for the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of health care technologies is reviewed. Although many studies adopt a frequentist approach, several authors have advocated the use of Bayesian methods in health economics. Emphasis has been placed on the advantages of the Bayesian approach, which include: (i) the ability to make more intuitive and meaningful inferences; (ii) the ability to tackle complex problems, such as allowing for the inclusion of patients who generate no cost, thanks to the availability of powerful computational algorithms; (iii) the importance of a full use of quantitative and structural prior information to produce realistic inferences. Much literature comparing the cost-effectiveness of two treatments is based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, new methods are arising with the purpose of decision making. These methods are based on a net benefits approach. In the present context, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves have been pointed out to be intrinsically Bayesian in their formulation. They plot the probability of a positive net benefit against the threshold cost of a unit increase in efficacy.A case study is presented in order to illustrate the Bayesian statistics in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Emphasis is placed on the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Advantages and disadvantages of the method described in this paper have been compared to frequentist methods and discussed.

Rigorous Approach in Investigation of Seismic Structure and Source Characteristicsin Northeast Asia: Hierarchical and Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustac, M.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.; Ford, S. R.; Sebastian, N.

2015-12-01

Conventional approaches to inverse problems suffer from non-linearity and non-uniqueness in estimations of seismic structures and source properties. Estimated results and associated uncertainties are often biased by applied regularizations and additional constraints, which are commonly introduced to solve such problems. Bayesian methods, however, provide statistically meaningful estimations of models and their uncertainties constrained by data information. In addition, hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques are inherently implemented in the Bayesian framework to account for involved error statistics and model parameterizations, and, in turn, allow more rigorous estimations of the same. Here, we apply Bayesian methods throughout the entire inference process to estimate seismic structures and source properties in Northeast Asia including east China, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese islands. Ambient noise analysis is first performed to obtain a base three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneity model using continuous broadband waveforms from more than 300 stations. As for the tomography of surface wave group and phase velocities in the 5-70 s band, we adopt a hierarchical and trans-D Bayesian inversion method using Voronoi partition. The 3-D heterogeneity model is further improved by joint inversions of teleseismic receiver functions and dispersion data using a newly developed high-efficiency Bayesian technique. The obtained model is subsequently used to prepare 3-D structural Green's functions for the source characterization. A hierarchical Bayesian method for point source inversion using regional complete waveform data is applied to selected events from the region. The seismic structure and source characteristics with rigorously estimated uncertainties from the novel Bayesian methods provide enhanced monitoring and discrimination of seismic events in northeast Asia.

The Influence of Roughness and Pyrethroid Formulations on Bed Bug (Cimex lectularius L.) Resting Preferences.

PubMed

Hottel, Benjamin A; Pereira, Roberto M; Koehler, Philip G

2015-05-12

Two-choice tests were conducted to examine the effect of surface roughness on the resting preference of bed bugs, Cimex lectularius L., on copper, basswood, and acrylic materials. The influence of pyrethroid formulation applications on resting preferences was also evaluated. Bed bugs were given the choice of resting between two sanded halves of each material tested. One half was sanded with a P60 grit sandpaper and the other with a less rough P600 grit sandpaper. A significantly higher proportion of bed bugs chose to rest on the rougher P60 grit sanded half of all materials tested. Pyrethroid applications were made to either the P60 grit half or both halves of acrylic arenas and resting preferences were again assessed. Behavioral responses of bed bugs to pyrethroid formulation applications varied depending on the bed bug strain used and the formulation applied. Bed bugs would still rest on the P60 grit half when Suspend SC formulation (0.06% deltamethrin) was applied; however, an avoidance response was observed from a bed bug strain susceptible to D-Force aerosol formulations (0.06% deltamethrin). The avoidance behavior is likely attributed to one, more than one, or even an interaction of multiple spray constituents and not the active ingredient.

Deep Sequencing of Pyrethroid-Resistant Bed Bugs Reveals Multiple Mechanisms of Resistance within a Single Population

PubMed Central

Adelman, Zach N.; Kilcullen, Kathleen A.; Koganemaru, Reina; Anderson, Michelle A. E.; Anderson, Troy D.; Miller, Dini M.

2011-01-01

A frightening resurgence of bed bug infestations has occurred over the last 10 years in the U.S. and current chemical methods have been inadequate for controlling this pest due to widespread insecticide resistance. Little is known about the mechanisms of resistance present in U.S. bed bug populations, making it extremely difficult to develop intelligent strategies for their control. We have identified bed bugs collected in Richmond, VA which exhibit both kdr-type (L925I) and metabolic resistance to pyrethroid insecticides. Using LD50 bioassays, we determined that resistance ratios for Richmond strain bed bugs were ∼5200-fold to the insecticide deltamethrin. To identify metabolic genes potentially involved in the detoxification of pyrethroids, we performed deep-sequencing of the adult bed bug transcriptome, obtaining more than 2.5 million reads on the 454 titanium platform. Following assembly, analysis of newly identified gene transcripts in both Harlan (susceptible) and Richmond (resistant) bed bugs revealed several candidate cytochrome P450 and carboxylesterase genes which were significantly over-expressed in the resistant strain, consistent with the idea of increased metabolic resistance. These data will accelerate efforts to understand the biochemical basis for insecticide resistance in bed bugs, and provide molecular markers to assist in the surveillance of metabolic resistance. PMID:22039447

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

Compromise decision support problems for hierarchical design involving uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadde, S.; Allen, J. K.; Mistree, F.

1994-08-01

In this paper an extension to the traditional compromise Decision Support Problem (DSP) formulation is presented. Bayesian statistics is used in the formulation to model uncertainties associated with the information being used. In an earlier paper a compromise DSP that accounts for uncertainty using fuzzy set theory was introduced. The Bayesian Decision Support Problem is described in this paper. The method for hierarchical design is demonstrated by using this formulation to design a portal frame. The results are discussed and comparisons are made with those obtained using the fuzzy DSP. Finally, the efficacy of incorporating Bayesian statistics into the traditional compromise DSP formulation is discussed and some pending research issues are described. Our emphasis in this paper is on the method rather than the results per se.

Cimex lectularius ("Bed Bugs"): Recognition, Management, and Eradication.

PubMed

McMenaman, Kathryn S; Gausche-Hill, Marianne

2016-11-01

Reports of bed bug infestations in major cities in the United States and abroad have been in the public press. Physicians and other clinicians who care for children need to be able to recognize bed bug bites and understand the social, psychological, and medical implications that this diagnosis will have on patients and their families. In this article, a case presentation serves to guide discussion regarding establishing the diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and the management of bed bug bites and their complications. Integrated pest management programs involving housing managers, residents, and professional pest exterminators provide both chemical and nonchemical solutions for eradication of bed bug infestations.

Statistical comparison of a hybrid approach with approximate and exact inference models for Fusion 2+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. David; Wiesenfeld, Eric; Gelfand, Andrew

2007-04-01

One of the greatest challenges in modern combat is maintaining a high level of timely Situational Awareness (SA). In many situations, computational complexity and accuracy considerations make the development and deployment of real-time, high-level inference tools very difficult. An innovative hybrid framework that combines Bayesian inference, in the form of Bayesian Networks, and Possibility Theory, in the form of Fuzzy Logic systems, has recently been introduced to provide a rigorous framework for high-level inference. In previous research, the theoretical basis and benefits of the hybrid approach have been developed. However, lacking is a concrete experimental comparison of the hybrid framework with traditional fusion methods, to demonstrate and quantify this benefit. The goal of this research, therefore, is to provide a statistical analysis on the comparison of the accuracy and performance of hybrid network theory, with pure Bayesian and Fuzzy systems and an inexact Bayesian system approximated using Particle Filtering. To accomplish this task, domain specific models will be developed under these different theoretical approaches and then evaluated, via Monte Carlo Simulation, in comparison to situational ground truth to measure accuracy and fidelity. Following this, a rigorous statistical analysis of the performance results will be performed, to quantify the benefit of hybrid inference to other fusion tools.

The mental health impact of bed bug infestations: a scoping review.

PubMed

Ashcroft, Rachelle; Seko, Yukari; Chan, Lai Fong; Dere, Jessica; Kim, Jaemin; McKenzie, Kwame

2015-11-01

We conducted a scoping review to identify and summarize the current state of knowledge regarding the mental health effects associated with bed bugs. We employed a five-stage scoping review framework, to systematically identify and review eligible articles. Eligibility criteria included a focus on bed bug infestations and reference to mental health impacts. Descriptive information was then extracted from each article, including the specific mental health effects cited. An initial search yielded 920 unique articles on the topic of bed bugs. Of these, 261 underwent abstract review, and 167 underwent full-text review. Full-text review and subsequent review of reference lists yielded a final sample of 51 articles. Numerous mental health effects were linked to bed bug infestations, including severe psychiatric symptoms. However, the majority (n = 31) of the articles were commentary papers; only five original research articles were identified. Although significant mental health effects are often linked to bed bugs, such discussions remain largely anecdotal. Despite recognition that the impact of bed bugs constitutes an important public health concern, little empirical evidence currently exists on this topic.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Model Comparison of Bayesian Semiparametric and Parametric Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Xia, Ye-Mao; Pan, Jun-Hao; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

Structural equation models have wide applications. One of the most important issues in analyzing structural equation models is model comparison. This article proposes a Bayesian model comparison statistic, namely the "L[subscript nu]"-measure for both semiparametric and parametric structural equation models. For illustration purposes, we consider…

The Importance of Proving the Null

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallistel, C. R.

2009-01-01

Null hypotheses are simple, precise, and theoretically important. Conventional statistical analysis cannot support them; Bayesian analysis can. The challenge in a Bayesian analysis is to formulate a suitably vague alternative, because the vaguer the alternative is (the more it spreads out the unit mass of prior probability), the more the null is…

A Bayesian Missing Data Framework for Generalized Multiple Outcome Mixed Treatment Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Hwanhee; Chu, Haitao; Zhang, Jing; Carlin, Bradley P.

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistical approaches to mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs) are becoming more popular because of their flexibility and interpretability. Many randomized clinical trials report multiple outcomes with possible inherent correlations. Moreover, MTC data are typically sparse (although richer than standard meta-analysis, comparing only two…

Bed Bug Guidance for School Nurses

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

School nurses are often called upon to provide vital information to students, parents, teachers, and administrators. These tips on identifying, managing and preventing bed bugs will help you to effectively respond if bed bugs appear in your school.

Modeling the value for money of changing clinical practice change: a stochastic application in diabetes care.

PubMed

Hoomans, Ties; Abrams, Keith R; Ament, Andre J H A; Evers, Silvia M A A; Severens, Johan L

2009-10-01

Decision making about resource allocation for guideline implementation to change clinical practice is inevitably undertaken in a context of uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness of both clinical guidelines and implementation strategies. Adopting a total net benefit approach, a model was recently developed to overcome problems with the use of combined ratio statistics when analyzing decision uncertainty. To demonstrate the stochastic application of the model for informing decision making about the adoption of an audit and feedback strategy for implementing a guideline recommending intensive blood glucose control in type 2 diabetes in primary care in the Netherlands. An integrated Bayesian approach to decision modeling and evidence synthesis is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation in WinBUGs. Data on model parameters is gathered from various sources, with effectiveness of implementation being estimated using pooled, random-effects meta-analysis. Decision uncertainty is illustrated using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and frontier. Decisions about whether to adopt intensified glycemic control and whether to adopt audit and feedback alter for the maximum values that decision makers are willing to pay for health gain. Through simultaneously incorporating uncertain economic evidence on both guidance and implementation strategy, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier show an increase in decision uncertainty concerning guideline implementation. The stochastic application in diabetes care demonstrates that the model provides a simple and useful tool for quantifying and exploring the (combined) uncertainty associated with decision making about adopting guidelines and implementation strategies and, therefore, for informing decisions about efficient resource allocation to change clinical practice.

Use of spatial capture-recapture modeling and DNA data to estimate densities of elusive animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Stoeckle, Tabea; Weber, Darius; Royle, J. Andrew

2011-01-01

Assessment of abundance, survival, recruitment rates, and density (i.e., population assessment) is especially challenging for elusive species most in need of protection (e.g., rare carnivores). Individual identification methods, such as DNA sampling, provide ways of studying such species efficiently and noninvasively. Additionally, statistical methods that correct for undetected animals and account for locations where animals are captured are available to efficiently estimate density and other demographic parameters. We collected hair samples of European wildcat (Felis silvestris) from cheek-rub lure sticks, extracted DNA from the samples, and identified each animals' genotype. To estimate the density of wildcats, we used Bayesian inference in a spatial capture-recapture model. We used WinBUGS to fit a model that accounted for differences in detection probability among individuals and seasons and between two lure arrays. We detected 21 individual wildcats (including possible hybrids) 47 times. Wildcat density was estimated at 0.29/km2 (SE 0.06), and 95% of the activity of wildcats was estimated to occur within 1.83 km from their home-range center. Lures located systematically were associated with a greater number of detections than lures placed in a cell on the basis of expert opinion. Detection probability of individual cats was greatest in late March. Our model is a generalized linear mixed model; hence, it can be easily extended, for instance, to incorporate trap- and individual-level covariates. We believe that the combined use of noninvasive sampling techniques and spatial capture-recapture models will improve population assessments, especially for rare and elusive animals.

Repellency of Naturally Occurring or Related Compounds, DEET, and Para-Menthane-3,8-Diol to Bed Bugs (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Anderson, John F; Ferrandino, Francis J; Vasil, Michael P; Bedoukian, Robert H; Maher, Marie; McKenzie, Karen

2018-05-04

Bed bugs, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), have become a major health nuisance in the past 20 ysin cities and elsewhere throughout many areas of the world. Few studies have reported on repellent compounds that could reduce their transport in luggage. We evaluated the repellency of six naturally occurring or related compounds used in flavor/fragrance applications or structurally related compounds, para-menthane-3,8-diol, and N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET) to bed bugs in a 183 × 183-cm arena . Repellency was assessed using soft-sided polyester lunch bags serving as surrogates of luggage and barrier cloth towels upon which rested untreated lunch bags. We report for the first time repellency of delta dodecalactone, 2-(3, 7-dimethyl-2, 6-nonadien-1-yl)-cyclopentanone (a.k.a. 'methyl apritone'), gamma dodecalactone, and para-menthane-3,8-diol to bed bugs. Propyl dihydrojasmonate, 3-methyl-5-hexyl-2-cyclohexenone, gamma methyl tridecalactone, and DEET are also documented to be repellent to bed bugs. These compounds provided relatively long-term protection. Propyl dihydrojasmonate prevented bed bugs from seeking refuge in treated lunch bags 27 d after treatment, and when applied to cloth towels repelled harborage-seeking bed bugs for 146 d. Methyl apritone blended with 3-methyl-5-hexyl-2-cyclohexenone and delta dodecalactone as an individual compound applied to cloth towels repelled bed bugs for 190 and 276 d, respectively. The above-mentioned compounds, either individually or as blends, may reduce risk of bed bugs seeking harborage in treated suitcases or towels upon which untreated luggage is placed.

Bed Bug Laws and Regulations

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

21 states have some level of regulation with regard to bed bugs. Most of these requirements focus on hotels and landlords or other property managers. The Department of Housing and Urban Development has guidance on controlling bed bugs in public housing.

TOWARDS A BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE ON STATISTICAL DISCLOSURE LIMITATION

EPA Science Inventory

National statistical offices and other organizations collect data on individual subjects (person, businesses, organizations), typically while assuring the subject that data pertaining to them will be held confidential. These data provide the raw material for statistical data pro...

A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

PubMed

Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

2015-07-01

Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A critique of statistical hypothesis testing in clinical research

PubMed Central

Raha, Somik

2011-01-01

Many have documented the difficulty of using the current paradigm of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) to test and validate the effectiveness of alternative medical systems such as Ayurveda. This paper critiques the applicability of RCTs for all clinical knowledge-seeking endeavors, of which Ayurveda research is a part. This is done by examining statistical hypothesis testing, the underlying foundation of RCTs, from a practical and philosophical perspective. In the philosophical critique, the two main worldviews of probability are that of the Bayesian and the frequentist. The frequentist worldview is a special case of the Bayesian worldview requiring the unrealistic assumptions of knowing nothing about the universe and believing that all observations are unrelated to each other. Many have claimed that the first belief is necessary for science, and this claim is debunked by comparing variations in learning with different prior beliefs. Moving beyond the Bayesian and frequentist worldviews, the notion of hypothesis testing itself is challenged on the grounds that a hypothesis is an unclear distinction, and assigning a probability on an unclear distinction is an exercise that does not lead to clarity of action. This critique is of the theory itself and not any particular application of statistical hypothesis testing. A decision-making frame is proposed as a way of both addressing this critique and transcending ideological debates on probability. An example of a Bayesian decision-making approach is shown as an alternative to statistical hypothesis testing, utilizing data from a past clinical trial that studied the effect of Aspirin on heart attacks in a sample population of doctors. As a big reason for the prevalence of RCTs in academia is legislation requiring it, the ethics of legislating the use of statistical methods for clinical research is also examined. PMID:22022152

Analysis of Feature Intervisibility and Cumulative Visibility Using GIS, Bayesian and Spatial Statistics: A Study from the Mandara Mountains, Northern Cameroon

PubMed Central

Wright, David K.; MacEachern, Scott; Lee, Jaeyong

2014-01-01

The locations of diy-geδ-bay (DGB) sites in the Mandara Mountains, northern Cameroon are hypothesized to occur as a function of their ability to see and be seen from points on the surrounding landscape. A series of geostatistical, two-way and Bayesian logistic regression analyses were performed to test two hypotheses related to the intervisibility of the sites to one another and their visual prominence on the landscape. We determine that the intervisibility of the sites to one another is highly statistically significant when compared to 10 stratified-random permutations of DGB sites. Bayesian logistic regression additionally demonstrates that the visibility of the sites to points on the surrounding landscape is statistically significant. The location of sites appears to have also been selected on the basis of lower slope than random permutations of sites. Using statistical measures, many of which are not commonly employed in archaeological research, to evaluate aspects of visibility on the landscape, we conclude that the placement of DGB sites improved their conspicuousness for enhanced ritual, social cooperation and/or competition purposes. PMID:25383883

Enhancing pediatric clinical trial feasibility through the use of Bayesian statistics.

PubMed

Huff, Robin A; Maca, Jeff D; Puri, Mala; Seltzer, Earl W

2017-11-01

BackgroundPediatric clinical trials commonly experience recruitment challenges including limited number of patients and investigators, inclusion/exclusion criteria that further reduce the patient pool, and a competitive research landscape created by pediatric regulatory commitments. To overcome these challenges, innovative approaches are needed.MethodsThis article explores the use of Bayesian statistics to improve pediatric trial feasibility, using pediatric Type-2 diabetes as an example. Data for six therapies approved for adults were used to perform simulations to determine the impact on pediatric trial size.ResultsWhen the number of adult patients contributing to the simulation was assumed to be the same as the number of patients to be enrolled in the pediatric trial, the pediatric trial size was reduced by 75-78% when compared with a frequentist statistical approach, but was associated with a 34-45% false-positive rate. In subsequent simulations, greater control was exerted over the false-positive rate by decreasing the contribution of the adult data. A 30-33% reduction in trial size was achieved when false-positives were held to less than 10%.ConclusionReducing the trial size through the use of Bayesian statistics would facilitate completion of pediatric trials, enabling drugs to be labeled appropriately for children.

Early perception of stink bug damage in developing seeds of field-grown soybean induces chemical defences and reduces bug attack.

PubMed

Giacometti, Romina; Barneto, Jesica; Barriga, Lucia G; Sardoy, Pedro M; Balestrasse, Karina; Andrade, Andrea M; Pagano, Eduardo A; Alemano, Sergio G; Zavala, Jorge A

2016-08-01

Southern green stink bugs (Nezara viridula L.) invade field-grown soybean crops, where they feed on developing seeds and inject phytotoxic saliva, which causes yield reduction. Although leaf responses to herbivory are well studied, no information is available about the regulation of defences in seeds. This study demonstrated that mitogen-activated protein kinases MPK3, MPK4 and MPK6 are expressed and activated in developing seeds of field-grown soybean and regulate a defensive response after stink bug damage. Although 10-20 min after stink bug feeding on seeds induced the expression of MPK3, MPK6 and MPK4, only MPK6 was phosphorylated after damage. Herbivory induced an early peak of jasmonic acid (JA) accumulation and ethylene (ET) emission after 3 h in developing seeds, whereas salicylic acid (SA) was also induced early, and at increasing levels up to 72 h after damage. Damaged seeds upregulated defensive genes typically modulated by JA/ET or SA, which in turn reduced the activity of digestive enzymes in the gut of stink bugs. Induced seeds were less preferred by stink bugs. This study shows that stink bug damage induces seed defences, which is perceived early by MPKs that may activate defence metabolic pathways in developing seeds of field-grown soybean. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Theory-based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning.

PubMed

Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Kemp, Charles

2006-07-01

Inductive inference allows humans to make powerful generalizations from sparse data when learning about word meanings, unobserved properties, causal relationships, and many other aspects of the world. Traditional accounts of induction emphasize either the power of statistical learning, or the importance of strong constraints from structured domain knowledge, intuitive theories or schemas. We argue that both components are necessary to explain the nature, use and acquisition of human knowledge, and we introduce a theory-based Bayesian framework for modeling inductive learning and reasoning as statistical inferences over structured knowledge representations.

Data free inference with processed data products

DOE PAGES

Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

2014-07-12

Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

Print a Bed Bug Card - (Single Cards)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two sets of business-card-sized lists of tips for recognizing bed bugs and the signs of an infestation, including a photo of bed bugs to assist identification. One card is for general use around home or office, the other for travelers.

Effectiveness of Bed Bug Pesticides

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Before EPA allows a bed bug claim on a label, the product must be supported by data showing it will kill bed bugs when applied according to the label. Also consider factors such as extent of infestation, site preparation, and insect life stages.

Should I Use a Fogger?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Total release foggers are approved for use against various indoor pests, including bed bugs. Not all are indicated against bed bugs, so check the label. Also note that if the fogged pesticides cannot reach where they are hiding, bed bugs won't be killed.

BaTMAn: Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, J.; Ascasibar, Y.; García-Benito, R.; Guidi, G.; Choudhury, O. S.; Bellocchi, E.; Sánchez, S. F.; Díaz, A. I.

2016-12-01

Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis (BaTMAn) characterizes any astronomical dataset containing spatial information and performs a tessellation based on the measurements and errors provided as input. The algorithm iteratively merges spatial elements as long as they are statistically consistent with carrying the same information (i.e. identical signal within the errors). The output segmentations successfully adapt to the underlying spatial structure, regardless of its morphology and/or the statistical properties of the noise. BaTMAn identifies (and keeps) all the statistically-significant information contained in the input multi-image (e.g. an IFS datacube). The main aim of the algorithm is to characterize spatially-resolved data prior to their analysis.

Competence of Cimex lectularius Bed Bugs for the Transmission of Bartonella quintana, the Agent of Trench Fever

PubMed Central

Leulmi, Hamza; Bitam, Idir; Berenger, Jean Michel; Lepidi, Hubert; Rolain, Jean Marc; Almeras, Lionel; Raoult, Didier; Parola, Philippe

2015-01-01

Background Bartonella quintana, the etiologic agent of trench fever and other human diseases, is transmitted by the feces of body lice. Recently, this bacterium has been detected in other arthropod families such as bed bugs, which begs the question of their involvement in B. quintana transmission. Although several infectious pathogens have been reported and are suggested to be transmitted by bed bugs, the evidence regarding their competence as vectors is unclear. Methodology/Principal Findings Bed bugs at the adult and instar developmental stages were fed three successive human blood meals inoculated with B. quintana bacterium from day one (D1) to D5; subsequently they were fed with pathogen-free human blood until the end of the experiment. Bed bugs and feces were collected in time series, to evaluate their capacities to acquire, multiply and expel viable B. quintana using molecular biology, immunohistochemistry and cultures assays. B. quintana was detected molecularly in 100% of randomly selected experimentally infected bed bug specimens (D3). The monitoring of B. quintana in bed bug feces showed that the bacterium was detectable starting on the 3rd day post-infection (pi) and persisted until day 18±1 pi. Although immunohistochemistry assays localized the bacteria to the gastrointestinal bed bug gut, the detection of B. quintana in the first and second instar larva stages suggested a vertical non-transovarial transmission of the bacterium. Conclusion The present work demonstrated for the first time that bed bugs can acquire, maintain for more than 2 weeks and release viable B. quintana organisms following a stercorarial shedding. We also observed the vertical transmission of the bacterium to their progeny. Although the biological role of bed bugs in the transmission of B. quintana under natural conditions has yet to be confirmed, the present work highlights the need to reconsider monitoring of these arthropods for the transmission of human pathogens. PMID:26000974

Key Source Habitats and Potential Dispersal of Triatoma infestans Populations in Northwestern Argentina: Implications for Vector Control

PubMed Central

Gürtler, Ricardo E.; Cecere, María C.; Fernández, María del Pilar; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.; Ceballos, Leonardo A.; Gurevitz, Juan M.; Kitron, Uriel; Cohen, Joel E.

2014-01-01

Background Triatoma infestans —the principal vector of the infection that causes Chagas disease— defies elimination efforts in the Gran Chaco region. This study identifies the types of human-made or -used structures that are key sources of these bugs in the initial stages of house reinfestation after an insecticide spraying campaign. Methodology and Principal Findings We measured demographic and blood-feeding parameters at two geographic scales in 11 rural communities in Figueroa, northwest Argentina. Of 1,297 sites searched in spring, 279 (21.5%) were infested. Bug abundance per site and female fecundity differed significantly among habitat types (ecotopes) and were highly aggregated. Domiciles (human sleeping quarters) had maximum infestation prevalence (38.7%), human-feeding bugs and total egg production, with submaximal values for other demographic and blood-feeding attributes. Taken collectively peridomestic sites were three times more often infested than domiciles. Chicken coops had greater bug abundance, blood-feeding rates, engorgement status, and female fecundity than pig and goat corrals. The host-feeding patterns were spatially structured yet there was strong evidence of active dispersal of late-stage bugs between ecotopes. Two flight indices predicted that female fliers were more likely to originate from kitchens and domiciles, rejecting our initial hypothesis that goat and pig corrals would dominate. Conclusions and Significance Chicken coops and domiciles were key source habitats fueling rapid house reinfestation. Focusing control efforts on ecotopes with human-fed bugs (domiciles, storerooms, goat corrals) would neither eliminate the substantial contributions to bug population growth from kitchens, chicken coops, and pig corrals nor stop dispersal of adult female bugs from kitchens. Rather, comprehensive control of the linked network of ecotopes is required to prevent feeding on humans, bug population growth, and bug dispersal simultaneously. Our study illustrates a demographic approach that may be applied to other regions and triatomine species for the design of innovative, improved vector control strategies. PMID:25299653

Blood constituents as phagostimulants for the bed bug Cimex lectularius L.

PubMed

Romero, Alvaro; Schal, Coby

2014-02-15

Many hematophagous arthropods are stimulated by blood constituents to initiate feeding. We used a membrane-based feeding system to identify chemicals that stimulate acceptance and engorgement responses in various life stages of bed bugs. Water was fortified with a variety of compounds (e.g. salts, amino acids, vitamins, nucleotides, cholesterol and fatty acids) in these bioassays. ATP was the most effective phagostimulant in adults and nymphs, resulting in >70% of bed bugs fully engorging. Addition of NaCl to low ATP solutions that alone elicited <50% engorgement significantly enhanced feeding responses of bed bugs. A comparison of feeding responses with solutions of various adenine nucleotides showed that ATP was more stimulatory than ADP, which was more effective than AMP. Feeding assays with physiological levels of other blood constituents such as d-glucose, albumin, globulin, cholesterol and mixtures of vitamins and amino acids did not stimulate engorgement, suggesting that adenine nucleotides are the most important feeding stimulants in bed bugs. Identification of phagostimulants for bed bugs will contribute towards the development of artificial diets for rearing purposes, as well as for the development of alternative methods to eliminate bed bug infestations.

Human Odorant Reception in the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Liu, Nannan

2015-11-02

The common bed bug Cimex lectularius is a temporary ectoparasite on humans and currently resurgent in many developed countries. The ability of bed bugs to detect human odorants in the environment is critical for their host-seeking behavior. This study deciphered the chemical basis of host detection by investigating the neuronal response of olfactory sensilla to 104 human odorants using single sensillum recording and characterized the electro-physiological responses of bed bug odorant receptors to human odorants with the Xenopus expression system. The results showed that the D type of olfactory sensilla play a predominant role in detecting the human odorants tested. Different human odorants elicited different neuronal responses with different firing frequencies and temporal dynamics. Particularly, aldehydes and alcohols are the most effective stimuli in triggering strong response while none of the carboxylic acids showed a strong stimulation. Functional characterization of two bed bug odorant receptors and co-receptors in response to human odorants revealed their specific responses to the aldehyde human odorants. Taken together, the findings of this study not only provide exciting new insights into the human odorant detection of bed bugs, but also offer valuable information for developing new reagents (attractants or repellents) for the bed bug control.

Molecular Basis of Olfactory Chemoreception in the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Chen, Zhou; Liu, Nannan

2017-04-06

As one of the most notorious ectoparasites, bed bugs rely heavily on human or animal blood sources for survival, mating and reproduction. Chemoreception, mediated by the odorant receptors on the membrane of olfactory sensory neurons, plays a vital role in their host seeking and risk aversion processes. We investigated the responses of odorant receptors to a large spectrum of semiochemicals, including human odorants and plant-released volatiles and found that strong responses were sparse; aldehydes/ketones were the most efficient stimuli, while carboxylic acids and aliphatics/aromatics were comparatively less effective in eliciting responses from bed bug odorant receptors. In bed bugs, both the odorant identity and concentrations play important roles in determining the strength of these responses. The odor space constructed based on the responses from all the odorant receptors tested revealed that odorants within the same chemical group are widely dispersed while odorants from different groups are intermingled, suggesting the complexity of odorant encoding in the bed bug odorant receptors. This study provides a comprehensive picture of the olfactory coding mechanisms of bed bugs that will ultimately contribute to the design and development of novel olfactory-based strategies to reduce both the biting nuisance and disease transmission from bed bugs.

Human Odorant Reception in the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius

PubMed Central

Liu, Feng; Liu, Nannan

2015-01-01

The common bed bug Cimex lectularius is a temporary ectoparasite on humans and currently resurgent in many developed countries. The ability of bed bugs to detect human odorants in the environment is critical for their host-seeking behavior. This study deciphered the chemical basis of host detection by investigating the neuronal response of olfactory sensilla to 104 human odorants using single sensillum recording and characterized the electro-physiological responses of bed bug odorant receptors to human odorants with the Xenopus expression system. The results showed that the D type of olfactory sensilla play a predominant role in detecting the human odorants tested. Different human odorants elicited different neuronal responses with different firing frequencies and temporal dynamics. Particularly, aldehydes and alcohols are the most effective stimuli in triggering strong response while none of the carboxylic acids showed a strong stimulation. Functional characterization of two bed bug odorant receptors and co-receptors in response to human odorants revealed their specific responses to the aldehyde human odorants. Taken together, the findings of this study not only provide exciting new insights into the human odorant detection of bed bugs, but also offer valuable information for developing new reagents (attractants or repellents) for the bed bug control. PMID:26522967

Minute pirate bugs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The minute pirate bugs (Orius) feed primarily on small, soft-bodied arthropods, but may supplement that diet with ingestion of plant fluids. The plant-feeding behavior of the minute pirate bugs has led to anecdotal reports of plant damage and speculation that these insects may occasionally be pests...

Aggregation behavior of the southern chinch bug (Hemiptera: Blissidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The southern chinch bug, Blissus insularis Barber, forms dense, multigenerational aggregations in St. Augustinegrass lawns leading to grass death from sap feeding. We conducted several bioassays to better understand the signals responsible for the formation and maintenance of southern chinch bug ag...

Felicity Conditions for Human Skill Acquisition: Validating an AI (Artificial Intelligence)-Based Theory.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-11-01

a stack, and productions are often not grouped into subroutines. For some reason, when psychologists think of temporary memory, whether for control ...Sierra cannot gcncrate. ’I7he third group contains 76 bug sets that have non -empty intersections with at least one bug set from Sierra’s predictions. This...that have non -empty intersections when interesected with at least one observed bug set. ’Ibis third group of bug sets is printed a little differently

Single-Case Time Series with Bayesian Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, W. Paul

2003-01-01

This article illustrates a simplified time series analysis for use by the counseling researcher practitioner in single-case baseline plus intervention studies with a Bayesian probability analysis to integrate findings from replications. The C statistic is recommended as a primary analysis tool with particular relevance in the context of actual…

A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkle, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

Modeling Error Distributions of Growth Curve Models through Bayesian Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong

2016-01-01

Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is…

Application of Bayesian Methods for Detecting Fraudulent Behavior on Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2018-01-01

Producers and consumers of test scores are increasingly concerned about fraudulent behavior before and during the test. There exist several statistical or psychometric methods for detecting fraudulent behavior on tests. This paper provides a review of the Bayesian approaches among them. Four hitherto-unpublished real data examples are provided to…

Bayesian statistics: estimating plant demographic parameters

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Michael Lavine

2001-01-01

There are times when external information should be brought tobear on an ecological analysis. experiments are never conducted in a knowledge-free context. The inference we draw from an observation may depend on everything else we know about the process. Bayesian analysis is a method that brings outside evidence into the analysis of experimental and observational data...

A baker's dozen of new particle flows for nonlinear filters, Bayesian decisions and transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daum, Fred; Huang, Jim

2015-05-01

We describe a baker's dozen of new particle flows to compute Bayes' rule for nonlinear filters, Bayesian decisions and learning as well as transport. Several of these new flows were inspired by transport theory, but others were inspired by physics or statistics or Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing—with its unique statistical properties—became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca. PMID:28817636

Bayesian analysis of the flutter margin method in aeroelasticity

DOE PAGES

Khalil, Mohammad; Poirel, Dominique; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-08-27

A Bayesian statistical framework is presented for Zimmerman and Weissenburger flutter margin method which considers the uncertainties in aeroelastic modal parameters. The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the previously developed least-square based estimation technique which relies on the Gaussian approximation of the flutter margin probability density function (pdf). Using the measured free-decay responses at subcritical (preflutter) airspeeds, the joint non-Gaussain posterior pdf of the modal parameters is sampled using the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior MCMC samples of the modal parameters are then used to obtain the flutter margin pdfs and finally the fluttermore » speed pdf. The usefulness of the Bayesian flutter margin method is demonstrated using synthetic data generated from a two-degree-of-freedom pitch-plunge aeroelastic model. The robustness of the statistical framework is demonstrated using different sets of measurement data. In conclusion, it will be shown that the probabilistic (Bayesian) approach reduces the number of test points required in providing a flutter speed estimate for a given accuracy and precision.« less

Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Parameswaran; Sánchez-Taltavull, Daniel; Perkins, Theodore J

2017-01-01

Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing-with its unique statistical properties-became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca.

Effectiveness of a Reduced-Risk Insecticide Based Bed Bug Management Program in Low-Income Housing.

PubMed

Singh, Narinderpal; Wang, Changlu; Cooper, Richard

2013-11-28

Bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) infestations are becoming increasingly common in low-income communities. Once they are introduced, elimination is very difficult. As part of the efforts to develop effective and safe bed bug management programs, we conducted a laboratory study evaluating the efficacy of a reduced-risk insecticide-Alpine aerosol (0.5% dinotefuran). We then conducted a field evaluation of a reduced-risk insecticide based integrated pest management (IPM) program in low-income family apartments with young children. In laboratory evaluations, direct spray and 5 min exposure to dry Alpine aerosol residue caused 100.0 ± 0.0 and 91.7 ± 8.3% mortality to bed bug nymphs, respectively. Direct Alpine aerosol spray killed 91.3 ± 4.3% of the eggs. The IPM program included education, steam, bagging infested linens, placing intercepting devices under furniture legs and corners of rooms, applying Alpine aerosol and Alpine dust (0.25% dinotefuran, 95% diatomaceous earth dust), and regularly scheduled monitoring and re-treatment. Nine apartments ranging from 1-1,428 (median: 29) bed bugs based on visual inspection and Climbup interceptor counts were included. Over a 6-month period, an average 172 g insecticide (Alpine aerosol + Alpine dust) was used in each apartment, a 96% reduction in pesticide usage compared to chemical only treatment reported in a similar environment. The IPM program resulted in an average of 96.8 ± 2.2% reduction in the number of bed bugs. However, elimination of bed bugs was only achieved in three lightly infested apartments (<30 bed bugs at the beginning). Elimination success was closely correlated with the level of bed bug populations.

Combining Public Health Education and Disease Ecology Research: Using Citizen Science to Assess Chagas Disease Entomological Risk in Texas.

PubMed

Curtis-Robles, Rachel; Wozniak, Edward J; Auckland, Lisa D; Hamer, Gabriel L; Hamer, Sarah A

2015-12-01

Chagas disease is a zoonotic parasitic disease well-documented throughout the Americas and transmitted primarily by triatomine 'kissing bug' vectors. In acknowledgment of the successful history of vector control programs based on community participation across Latin America, we used a citizen science approach to gain novel insight into the geographic distribution, seasonal activity, and Trypanosoma cruzi infection prevalence of kissing bugs in Texas while empowering the public with information about Chagas disease. We accepted submissions of kissing bugs encountered by the public in Texas and other states from 2013-2014 while providing educational literature about Chagas disease. In the laboratory, kissing bugs were identified to species, dissected, and tested for T. cruzi infection. A total of 1,980 triatomines were submitted to the program comprised of at least seven species, of which T. gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga were the most abundant (85.7% of submissions). Triatomines were most commonly collected from dog kennels and outdoor patios; Overall, 10.5% of triatomines were collected from inside the home. Triatomines were submitted from across Texas, including many counties which were not previously known to harbor kissing bugs. Kissing bugs were captured primarily throughout April-October, and peak activity occurred in June-July. Emails to our dedicated account regarding kissing bugs were more frequent in the summer months (June-August) than the rest of the year. We detected T. cruzi in 63.3% of tested bugs. Citizen science is an efficient approach for generating data on the distribution, phenology, and infection prevalence of kissing bugs-vectors of the Chagas disease parasite-while educating the public and medical community.

Effectiveness of a Reduced-Risk Insecticide Based Bed Bug Management Program in Low-Income Housing

PubMed Central

Singh, Narinderpal; Wang, Changlu; Cooper, Richard

2013-01-01

Bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) infestations are becoming increasingly common in low-income communities. Once they are introduced, elimination is very difficult. As part of the efforts to develop effective and safe bed bug management programs, we conducted a laboratory study evaluating the efficacy of a reduced-risk insecticide—Alpine aerosol (0.5% dinotefuran). We then conducted a field evaluation of a reduced-risk insecticide based integrated pest management (IPM) program in low-income family apartments with young children. In laboratory evaluations, direct spray and 5 min exposure to dry Alpine aerosol residue caused 100.0 ± 0.0 and 91.7 ± 8.3% mortality to bed bug nymphs, respectively. Direct Alpine aerosol spray killed 91.3 ± 4.3% of the eggs. The IPM program included education, steam, bagging infested linens, placing intercepting devices under furniture legs and corners of rooms, applying Alpine aerosol and Alpine dust (0.25% dinotefuran, 95% diatomaceous earth dust), and regularly scheduled monitoring and re-treatment. Nine apartments ranging from 1–1,428 (median: 29) bed bugs based on visual inspection and Climbup interceptor counts were included. Over a 6-month period, an average 172 g insecticide (Alpine aerosol + Alpine dust) was used in each apartment, a 96% reduction in pesticide usage compared to chemical only treatment reported in a similar environment. The IPM program resulted in an average of 96.8 ± 2.2% reduction in the number of bed bugs. However, elimination of bed bugs was only achieved in three lightly infested apartments (<30 bed bugs at the beginning). Elimination success was closely correlated with the level of bed bug populations. PMID:26462533

Biology, Pest Status, Microbiome and Control of Kudzu Bug (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Plataspidae): A New Invasive Pest in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Dhammi, Anirudh; van Krestchmar, Jaap B.; Ponnusamy, Loganathan; Bacheler, Jack S.; Reisig, Dominic D.; Herbert, Ames; Del Pozo-Valdivia, Alejandro I.; Roe, R. Michael

2016-01-01

Soybean is an important food crop, and insect integrated pest management (IPM) is critical to the sustainability of this production system. In recent years, the introduction into the United States of the kudzu bug currently identified as Megacopta cribraria (F.), poses a threat to soybean production. The kudzu bug was first discovered in the state of Georgia, U.S. in 2009 and since then has spread to most of the southeastern states. Because it was not found in the North American subcontinent before this time, much of our knowledge of this insect comes from research done in its native habitat. However, since the U.S. introduction, studies have been undertaken to improve our understanding of the kudzu bug basic biology, microbiome, migration patterns, host selection and management in its expanding new range. Researchers are not only looking at developing IPM strategies for the kudzu bug in soybean, but also at its unique relationship with symbiotic bacteria. Adult females deposit bacterial packets with their eggs, and the neonates feed on these packets to acquire the bacteria, Candidatus Ishikawaella capsulata. The kudzu bug should be an informative model to study the co-evolution of insect function and behavior with that of a single bacteria species. We review kudzu bug trapping and survey methods, the development of bioassays for insecticide susceptibility, insecticide efficacy, host preferences, impact of the pest on urban environments, population expansion, and the occurrence of natural enemies. The identity of the kudzu bug in the U.S. is not clear. We propose that the kudzu bug currently accepted as M. cribraria in the U.S. is actually Megacopta punctatissima, with more work needed to confirm this hypothesis. PMID:27649166

Single and multiple in-season measurements as indicators of at-harvest cotton boll damage caused by verde plant bug (Hemiptera: Miridae).

PubMed

Brewer, Michael J; Armstrong, J Scott; Parker, Roy D

2013-06-01

The ability to monitor verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus Distant (Hemiptera: Miridae), and the progression of cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., boll responses to feeding and associated cotton boll rot provided opportunity to assess if single in-season measurements had value in evaluating at-harvest damage to bolls and if multiple in-season measurements enhanced their combined use. One in-season verde plant bug density measurement, three in-season plant injury measurements, and two at-harvest damage measurements were taken in 15 cotton fields in South Texas, 2010. Linear regression selected two measurements as potentially useful indicators of at-harvest damage: verde plant bug density (adjusted r2 = 0.68; P = 0.0004) and internal boll injury of the carpel wall (adjusted r2 = 0.72; P = 0.004). Considering use of multiple measurements, a stepwise multiple regression of the four in-season measurements selected a univariate model (verde plant bug density) using a 0.15 selection criterion (adjusted r2 = 0.74; P = 0.0002) and a bivariate model (verde plant bug density-internal boll injury) using a 0.25 selection criterion (adjusted r2 = 0.76; P = 0.0007) as indicators of at-harvest damage. In a validation using cultivar and water regime treatments experiencing low verde plant bug pressure in 2011 and 2012, the bivariate model performed better than models using verde plant bug density or internal boll injury separately. Overall, verde plant bug damaging cotton bolls exemplified the benefits of using multiple in-season measurements in pest monitoring programs, under the challenging situation when at-harvest damage results from a sequence of plant responses initiated by in-season insect feeding.

Overcoming health inequalities by using the Bug Busting 'whole-school approach' to eradicate head lice.

PubMed

Ibarra, Joanna; Fry, Frances; Clarice, Wickenden; Olsen, Alice; Vander Stichele, Robert H; Lapeere, Hilde; Maryan, Jenner; Franks, Andrea; Smith, Jane L

2007-10-01

The aim of this paper was to illustrate the socially inclusive nature of the Bug Busting 'whole-school approach' to head louse eradication. In the UK, Belgium and Denmark, persistent head lice in families of all socio-economic status (SES) is a problem. Since 1995 in the UK and 1998 elsewhere, an educational programme intended to teach families how to detect and treat head lice by using the Bug Busting wet combing method has been organized in some areas. Local schools lead this community strategy for prevention, known as a 'whole-school approach' (UK). We describe five studies applying the Bug Busting approach, four set in districts where some disadvantaged families live (UK and Belgium) and a fifth set in Denmark. Feasibility and consumer satisfaction are examined. One UK study analyses data on area prescribing for head lice and the impact in a deprived locality of raising the profile of Bug Busting. We find parental education in Bug Busting enables families of all SES to participate in a 'whole-school approach' to head lice. Best results are obtained when each family has a Bug Buster Kit. This provides all the combs necessary with full instructions on their use with ordinary shampoo and conditioner to detect lice, eradicate an infestation mechanically, or to check the success of any treatment. In the UK, the promotion of the Bug Busting approach is reducing primary care expenditure on treatment for head lice and professional time spent with worried parents. As a result, healthcare providers can give time to the few families who require one-to-one guidance. Incorporation of the Bug Busting approach to head lice into clinical practice in school communities contributes to sustainable control whilst overcoming health inequalities in participating families.

Bayesian characterization of uncertainty in species interaction strengths.

PubMed

Wolf, Christopher; Novak, Mark; Gitelman, Alix I

2017-06-01

Considerable effort has been devoted to the estimation of species interaction strengths. This effort has focused primarily on statistical significance testing and obtaining point estimates of parameters that contribute to interaction strength magnitudes, leaving the characterization of uncertainty associated with those estimates unconsidered. We consider a means of characterizing the uncertainty of a generalist predator's interaction strengths by formulating an observational method for estimating a predator's prey-specific per capita attack rates as a Bayesian statistical model. This formulation permits the explicit incorporation of multiple sources of uncertainty. A key insight is the informative nature of several so-called non-informative priors that have been used in modeling the sparse data typical of predator feeding surveys. We introduce to ecology a new neutral prior and provide evidence for its superior performance. We use a case study to consider the attack rates in a New Zealand intertidal whelk predator, and we illustrate not only that Bayesian point estimates can be made to correspond with those obtained by frequentist approaches, but also that estimation uncertainty as described by 95% intervals is more useful and biologically realistic using the Bayesian method. In particular, unlike in bootstrap confidence intervals, the lower bounds of the Bayesian posterior intervals for attack rates do not include zero when a predator-prey interaction is in fact observed. We conclude that the Bayesian framework provides a straightforward, probabilistic characterization of interaction strength uncertainty, enabling future considerations of both the deterministic and stochastic drivers of interaction strength and their impact on food webs.

Final Report, DOE Early Career Award: Predictive modeling of complex physical systems: new tools for statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef

Predictive simulation of complex physical systems increasingly rests on the interplay of experimental observations with computational models. Key inputs, parameters, or structural aspects of models may be incomplete or unknown, and must be developed from indirect and limited observations. At the same time, quantified uncertainties are needed to qualify computational predictions in the support of design and decision-making. In this context, Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and limited data, but at prohibitive computional expense. This project intends to make rigorous predictive modeling *feasible* in complex physical systems, via accelerated and scalable tools for uncertainty quantification, Bayesianmore » inference, and experimental design. Specific objectives are as follows: 1. Develop adaptive posterior approximations and dimensionality reduction approaches for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional nonlinear systems. 2. Extend accelerated Bayesian methodologies to large-scale {\\em sequential} data assimilation, fully treating nonlinear models and non-Gaussian state and parameter distributions. 3. Devise efficient surrogate-based methods for Bayesian model selection and the learning of model structure. 4. Develop scalable simulation/optimization approaches to nonlinear Bayesian experimental design, for both parameter inference and model selection. 5. Demonstrate these inferential tools on chemical kinetic models in reacting flow, constructing and refining thermochemical and electrochemical models from limited data. Demonstrate Bayesian filtering on canonical stochastic PDEs and in the dynamic estimation of inhomogeneous subsurface properties and flow fields.« less

Susceptibilities of Tarnished Plant Bug and Stink Bug Nymphs to Various Insecticides

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine the susceptibility of the nymphal stages and adult stage of the tarnished plant bug to a pyrethroid (permethrin), organophasphate (methamidophos), and neonicotinoid (thiamethoxam) insecticide. The susceptibilities of 5th instar and adult stages of th...

Bug City: Bees [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic microscopic photography,…

Bug City: Beetles [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic microscopic photography,…

Print a Bed Bug Card - (Page of Cards)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For mass distribution: two sets of business-card-sized lists of tips for recognizing bed bugs and signs of an infestation, including a photo of bed bugs to assist identification. One card is for general use around home or office, the other for travelers.

Bed bug detection: Current technologies and future directions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study evaluates current technologies used to detect bed bug infestations, and presents new information regarding the underlying chemical basis of canines scent detection. The manuscript also reports new and future devices that may play a part in bed bug detection in the future....

Tarnished plant bug management in Mississippi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The tarnished plant bug, Lygus lineolaris (Palisot de Beauvois), is the most important insect pest of cotton in the Mississippi Delta. Although recent research has demonstrated that several cultural practices can be used in an overall IPM program for tarnished plant bug, insecticides remain the mos...

Bed bug aggregation on dirty laundry: a mechanism for passive dispersal.

PubMed

Hentley, William T; Webster, Ben; Evison, Sophie E F; Siva-Jothy, Michael T

2017-09-28

Bed bugs have shown a recent and rapid global expansion that has been suggested to be caused by cheap air travel. How a small, flightless and anachoretic insect that hides within its host's sleeping area manages to travel long distances is not yet clear. Bed bugs are attracted to the odour of sleeping humans and we suggest that soiled clothing may present a similarly attractive cue, allowing bed bugs to 'hitch-hike' around the world after aggregating in the laundry bags of travellers. We show that (1) soiled clothing is significantly more attractive than clean clothing to active bed bugs moving within a bedroom sized arena and (2) elevation of CO 2 to a level that simulates human occupancy in the same arena appears to initiate search behaviour rather than direct it. Our results show, for the first time, how leaving worn clothing exposed in sleeping areas when travelling can be exploited by bed bugs to facilitate passive dispersal.

Using Single Sensillum Recording to Detect Olfactory Neuron Responses of Bed Bugs to Semiochemicals.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Liu, Nannan

2016-01-18

The insect olfactory system plays an important role in detecting semiochemicals in the environment. In particular, the antennal sensilla which house single or multiple neurons inside, are considered to make the major contribution in responding to the chemical stimuli. By directly recording action potential in the olfactory sensillum after exposure to stimuli, single sensillum recording (SSR) technique provides a powerful approach for investigating the neural responses of insects to chemical stimuli. For the bed bug, which is a notorious human parasite, multiple types of olfactory sensillum have been characterized. In this study, we demonstrated neural responses of bed bug olfactory sensilla to two chemical stimuli and the dose-dependent responses to one of them using the SSR method. This approach enables researchers to conduct early screening for individual chemical stimuli on the bed bug olfactory sensilla, which would provide valuable information for the development of new bed bug attractants or repellents and benefits the bed bug control efforts.

Using Single Sensillum Recording to Detect Olfactory Neuron Responses of Bed Bugs to Semiochemicals

PubMed Central

Liu, Feng; Liu, Nannan

2016-01-01

The insect olfactory system plays an important role in detecting semiochemicals in the environment. In particular, the antennal sensilla which house single or multiple neurons inside, are considered to make the major contribution in responding to the chemical stimuli. By directly recording action potential in the olfactory sensillum after exposure to stimuli, single sensillum recording (SSR) technique provides a powerful approach for investigating the neural responses of insects to chemical stimuli. For the bed bug, which is a notorious human parasite, multiple types of olfactory sensillum have been characterized. In this study, we demonstrated neural responses of bed bug olfactory sensilla to two chemical stimuli and the dose-dependent responses to one of them using the SSR method. This approach enables researchers to conduct early screening for individual chemical stimuli on the bed bug olfactory sensilla, which would provide valuable information for the development of new bed bug attractants or repellents and benefits the bed bug control efforts. PMID:26862929

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING APPROACH TO MAPPING GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY RATES FOR SUBNATIONAL AREAS WITH R-INLA.

PubMed

Khana, Diba; Rossen, Lauren M; Hedegaard, Holly; Warner, Margaret

2018-01-01

Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

Analysis of statistical and standard algorithms for detecting muscle onset with surface electromyography.

PubMed

Tenan, Matthew S; Tweedell, Andrew J; Haynes, Courtney A

2017-01-01

The timing of muscle activity is a commonly applied analytic method to understand how the nervous system controls movement. This study systematically evaluates six classes of standard and statistical algorithms to determine muscle onset in both experimental surface electromyography (EMG) and simulated EMG with a known onset time. Eighteen participants had EMG collected from the biceps brachii and vastus lateralis while performing a biceps curl or knee extension, respectively. Three established methods and three statistical methods for EMG onset were evaluated. Linear envelope, Teager-Kaiser energy operator + linear envelope and sample entropy were the established methods evaluated while general time series mean/variance, sequential and batch processing of parametric and nonparametric tools, and Bayesian changepoint analysis were the statistical techniques used. Visual EMG onset (experimental data) and objective EMG onset (simulated data) were compared with algorithmic EMG onset via root mean square error and linear regression models for stepwise elimination of inferior algorithms. The top algorithms for both data types were analyzed for their mean agreement with the gold standard onset and evaluation of 95% confidence intervals. The top algorithms were all Bayesian changepoint analysis iterations where the parameter of the prior (p0) was zero. The best performing Bayesian algorithms were p0 = 0 and a posterior probability for onset determination at 60-90%. While existing algorithms performed reasonably, the Bayesian changepoint analysis methodology provides greater reliability and accuracy when determining the singular onset of EMG activity in a time series. Further research is needed to determine if this class of algorithms perform equally well when the time series has multiple bursts of muscle activity.

Environmental transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans drives dynamics of Buruli ulcer in endemic regions of Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garchitorena, Andrés; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Texier, Gaëtan; Landier, Jordi; Eyangoh, Sara; Bonds, Matthew H.; Guégan, Jean-François; Roche, Benjamin

2015-12-01

Buruli Ulcer is a devastating skin disease caused by the pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Emergence and distribution of Buruli ulcer cases is clearly linked to aquatic ecosystems, but the specific route of transmission of M. ulcerans to humans remains unclear. Relying on the most detailed field data in space and time on M. ulcerans and Buruli ulcer available today, we assess the relative contribution of two potential transmission routes -environmental and water bug transmission- to the dynamics of Buruli ulcer in two endemic regions of Cameroon. The temporal dynamics of Buruli ulcer incidence are explained by estimating rates of different routes of transmission in mathematical models. Independently, we also estimate statistical models of the different transmission pathways on the spatial distribution of Buruli ulcer. The results of these two independent approaches are corroborative and suggest that environmental transmission pathways explain the temporal and spatial patterns of Buruli ulcer in our endemic areas better than the water bug transmission.

Host-Seeking Behavior in the Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius.

PubMed

Suchy, James T; Lewis, Vernard R

2011-03-07

The reemergence of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius Linnaeus, has recently spawned a frenzy of public, media, and academic attention. In response to the growing rate of infestation, considerable work has been focused on identifying the various host cues utilized by the bed bug in search of a meal. Most of these behavioral studies examine movement within a confined environment, such as a Petri dish. This has prevented a more complete understanding of the insect's host-seeking process. This work describes a novel method for studying host-seeking behavior, using various movement parameters, in a time-lapse photography system. With the use of human breath as an attractant, we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed how bed bugs navigate their environment between its harborage and the host. Levels of behavioral activity varied dramatically between bed bugs in the presence and absence of host odor. Bed bugs demonstrated not simply activation, but attraction to the chemical components of breath. Localized, stop-start host-seeking behavior or alternating periods of movement and pause were observed among bed bugs placed in the environment void of human breath, while those exposed to human breath demonstrated long range, stop-start host-seeking behavior. A more comprehensive understanding of bed bug host-seeking can lead to the development of traps and monitors that account for unique subtleties in their behavior. The time-lapse photography system uses a large, artificial environment and could also be employed to study other aspects of the insect's behavioral patterns.

Ecosystem-Based Incorporation of Nectar-Producing Plants for Stink Bug Parasitoids.

PubMed

Tillman, Glynn

2017-06-24

Adult parasitoids of pest insects rely on floral resources for survival and reproduction, but can be food-deprived in intensively managed agricultural systems lacking these resources. Stink bugs are serious pests for crops in southwest Georgia. Provisioning nectar-producing plants for parasitoids of stink bugs potentially can enhance biocontrol of these pests. Knowledge of spatial and temporal availability and distribution of stink bugs in host plants is necessary for appropriate timing and placement of flowering plants in agroecosystems. Stink bugs move between closely associated host plants throughout the growing season in response to deteriorating suitability of their host plants. In peanut-cotton farmscapes, stink bugs develop in peanut, and subsequently the adults disperse into adjacent cotton. Parasitism of Nezara viridula (L.) adults by Trichopoda pennipes (F.) at the peanut-cotton interface was significantly higher in cotton with a strip of milkweed or buckwheat between the two crops than in cotton alone. Milkweed and buckwheat also provided nectar to a wide range of insect pollinators. Monarch butterflies fed on milkweed. When placed between peanut and cotton, a strip of soybean was an effective trap crop for cotton, reducing economic damage. Incorporation of buckwheat near soybean enhanced parasitism of Euschistus servus (Say) eggs by Telenomus podisi Ashmead in cotton. In conclusion, nectar provision enhances biocontrol of stink bugs, acts together with other management tactics for stink bug control, and aids in conservation of natural enemies, insect pollinators, and the monarch butterfly.

Ecosystem-Based Incorporation of Nectar-Producing Plants for Stink Bug Parasitoids

PubMed Central

Tillman, Glynn

2017-01-01

Adult parasitoids of pest insects rely on floral resources for survival and reproduction, but can be food-deprived in intensively managed agricultural systems lacking these resources. Stink bugs are serious pests for crops in southwest Georgia. Provisioning nectar-producing plants for parasitoids of stink bugs potentially can enhance biocontrol of these pests. Knowledge of spatial and temporal availability and distribution of stink bugs in host plants is necessary for appropriate timing and placement of flowering plants in agroecosystems. Stink bugs move between closely associated host plants throughout the growing season in response to deteriorating suitability of their host plants. In peanut-cotton farmscapes, stink bugs develop in peanut, and subsequently the adults disperse into adjacent cotton. Parasitism of Nezara viridula (L.) adults by Trichopoda pennipes (F.) at the peanut-cotton interface was significantly higher in cotton with a strip of milkweed or buckwheat between the two crops than in cotton alone. Milkweed and buckwheat also provided nectar to a wide range of insect pollinators. Monarch butterflies fed on milkweed. When placed between peanut and cotton, a strip of soybean was an effective trap crop for cotton, reducing economic damage. Incorporation of buckwheat near soybean enhanced parasitism of Euschistus servus (Say) eggs by Telenomus podisi Ashmead in cotton. In conclusion, nectar provision enhances biocontrol of stink bugs, acts together with other management tactics for stink bug control, and aids in conservation of natural enemies, insect pollinators, and the monarch butterfly. PMID:28672808

Bug City: Spiders and Scorpions [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic microscopic photography,…

Bug City: Crickets, Grasshoppers & Friends [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children (grades 1-6) learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon, including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic…

Bug City: Butterflies and Moths [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic microscopic photography,…

Bug City: Ants [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children (grades 1-6) learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic microscopic…

Bug City: Ladybugs & Fireflies [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children (grades 1-6) learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon, including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic…

A black color morph of adult Nezara viridula (L.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The southern green stink bug is a worldwide pest of cotton and other row crops, affecting crop yield and transmitting diseases. Adult coloration is sometimes used to identify southern green stink bugs and to determine their physiological condition. Multiple colors occur in southern green stink bug. ...

Stink bugs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stink bugs can cause serious damage to apple and pear fruit at harvest. Feeding on the maturing fruit results in a puncture wound with a depressed and discolored blemish on the surface. The fruit flesh under the damage site is brown and corky. There are currently four major species of stink bugs ...

Bug City: Aquatic Insects [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic microscopic photography,…

Bug City: Flies & Mosquitoes [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children (grades 1-6) learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon, including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic…

Trap crops and natural enemies: A winning combination in organically produced strawberries

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Until recently, there have been few biological alternatives to pesticides for controlling lygus bugs. We now know that alfalfa trap crops can attract lygus bug populations away from strawberries and concentrate lygus bug natural enemies. Beneficial arthropods found in strawberry and alfalfa include...

Boosting Bayesian parameter inference of stochastic differential equation models with methods from statistical physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone; Stoop, Ruedi

2016-04-01

Measured time-series of both precipitation and runoff are known to exhibit highly non-trivial statistical properties. For making reliable probabilistic predictions in hydrology, it is therefore desirable to have stochastic models with output distributions that share these properties. When parameters of such models have to be inferred from data, we also need to quantify the associated parametric uncertainty. For non-trivial stochastic models, however, this latter step is typically very demanding, both conceptually and numerically, and always never done in hydrology. Here, we demonstrate that methods developed in statistical physics make a large class of stochastic differential equation (SDE) models amenable to a full-fledged Bayesian parameter inference. For concreteness we demonstrate these methods by means of a simple yet non-trivial toy SDE model. We consider a natural catchment that can be described by a linear reservoir, at the scale of observation. All the neglected processes are assumed to happen at much shorter time-scales and are therefore modeled with a Gaussian white noise term, the standard deviation of which is assumed to scale linearly with the system state (water volume in the catchment). Even for constant input, the outputs of this simple non-linear SDE model show a wealth of desirable statistical properties, such as fat-tailed distributions and long-range correlations. Standard algorithms for Bayesian inference fail, for models of this kind, because their likelihood functions are extremely high-dimensional intractable integrals over all possible model realizations. The use of Kalman filters is illegitimate due to the non-linearity of the model. Particle filters could be used but become increasingly inefficient with growing number of data points. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithms allow us to translate this inference problem to the problem of simulating the dynamics of a statistical mechanics system and give us access to most sophisticated methods that have been developed in the statistical physics community over the last few decades. We demonstrate that such methods, along with automated differentiation algorithms, allow us to perform a full-fledged Bayesian inference, for a large class of SDE models, in a highly efficient and largely automatized manner. Furthermore, our algorithm is highly parallelizable. For our toy model, discretized with a few hundred points, a full Bayesian inference can be performed in a matter of seconds on a standard PC.

Bayesian hypothesis testing for human threat conditioning research: an introduction and the condir R package

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Klugkist, Irene; Engelhard, Iris M.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Threat conditioning procedures have allowed the experimental investigation of the pathogenesis of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. The findings of these procedures have also provided stable foundations for the development of relevant intervention programs (e.g. exposure therapy). Statistical inference of threat conditioning procedures is commonly based on p-values and Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST). Nowadays, however, there is a growing concern about this statistical approach, as many scientists point to the various limitations of p-values and NHST. As an alternative, the use of Bayes factors and Bayesian hypothesis testing has been suggested. In this article, we apply this statistical approach to threat conditioning data. In order to enable the easy computation of Bayes factors for threat conditioning data we present a new R package named condir, which can be used either via the R console or via a Shiny application. This article provides both a non-technical introduction to Bayesian analysis for researchers using the threat conditioning paradigm, and the necessary tools for computing Bayes factors easily. PMID:29038683

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-01

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-08

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data

PubMed Central

ZHU, HONGTU; IBRAHIM, JOSEPH G.; TANG, NIANSHENG

2013-01-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures. PMID:24753718

UNIFORMLY MOST POWERFUL BAYESIAN TESTS

PubMed Central

Johnson, Valen E.

2014-01-01

Uniformly most powerful tests are statistical hypothesis tests that provide the greatest power against a fixed null hypothesis among all tests of a given size. In this article, the notion of uniformly most powerful tests is extended to the Bayesian setting by defining uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests to be tests that maximize the probability that the Bayes factor, in favor of the alternative hypothesis, exceeds a specified threshold. Like their classical counterpart, uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests are most easily defined in one-parameter exponential family models, although extensions outside of this class are possible. The connection between uniformly most powerful tests and uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests can be used to provide an approximate calibration between p-values and Bayes factors. Finally, issues regarding the strong dependence of resulting Bayes factors and p-values on sample size are discussed. PMID:24659829

The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

PubMed

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Learning classification trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1991-01-01

Algorithms for learning classification trees have had successes in artificial intelligence and statistics over many years. How a tree learning algorithm can be derived from Bayesian decision theory is outlined. This introduces Bayesian techniques for splitting, smoothing, and tree averaging. The splitting rule turns out to be similar to Quinlan's information gain splitting rule, while smoothing and averaging replace pruning. Comparative experiments with reimplementations of a minimum encoding approach, Quinlan's C4 and Breiman et al. Cart show the full Bayesian algorithm is consistently as good, or more accurate than these other approaches though at a computational price.

Repellency of selected chemicals against the bed bug, (hemiptra: Cimicidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In recent years, the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), became a major public health concern in urban communities. Bed bugs are notoriously difficult to control and their painful bites are not tolerated by most people. The public has a strong need for materials and methods ...

Essential oils as fumigants for bed bugs (Hemiptera: Cimicidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In Petri dish assays, fumigation of a pyrethroid-susceptible strain of bed bugs Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) with various essential oils resulted in mortality that approached or equaled 100%, after 5 days. However, when bed bugs were exposed to the same essential oils in sealed, comme...

Bug City: House and Backyard Insects [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

"Bug City" is a video series created to help children learn about insects and other small critters. All aspects of bug life are touched upon including body structure, food, habitat, life cycle, mating habits, camouflage, mutualism (symbiosis), adaptations, social behavior, and more. Each program features dramatic microscopic photography,…

Attraction of stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) nymphs to Euschistus aggregation pheromone in the field

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phytophagous stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are primary pests in most fruit, vegetable, grain, and row crops worldwide. Pheromones have been identified and synthesized for several species of economically important stink bug pests. When yellow pyramid traps are baited with lures containing thes...

Bug Distribution and Pattern Classification.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tatsuoka, Kikumi K.; Tatsuoka, Maurice M.

The study examines the rule space model, a probabilistic model capable of measuring cognitive skill acquisition and of diagnosing erroneous rules of operation in a procedural domain. The model involves two important components: (1) determination of a set of bug distributions (bug density functions representing clusters around the rules); and (2)…

Analysis of the life stages of Cimex lectularius captured within a medical centre suggests that the true numbers of bed bug introductions are under-reported.

PubMed

Sheele, J M; Barrett, E; Dash, D; Ridge, G E

2017-11-01

Little is known about the epidemiology of bed bugs within the healthcare system, but nymphal stages predominate in natural infestations. This study determined the life stages of bed bugs captured within a medical centre, and found that older bed bugs were more likely to be captured than younger insects. The numbers of first instars, third-fifth instars and adult females captured were significantly different compared with the numbers of each life stage found in a natural infestation (P<0.01). A significant number of early-instar bed bugs introduced into the medical centre may go unnoticed by hospital staff. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular Basis of Olfactory Chemoreception in the Common Bed Bug, Cimex lectularius

PubMed Central

Liu, Feng; Chen, Zhou; Liu, Nannan

2017-01-01

As one of the most notorious ectoparasites, bed bugs rely heavily on human or animal blood sources for survival, mating and reproduction. Chemoreception, mediated by the odorant receptors on the membrane of olfactory sensory neurons, plays a vital role in their host seeking and risk aversion processes. We investigated the responses of odorant receptors to a large spectrum of semiochemicals, including human odorants and plant-released volatiles and found that strong responses were sparse; aldehydes/ketones were the most efficient stimuli, while carboxylic acids and aliphatics/aromatics were comparatively less effective in eliciting responses from bed bug odorant receptors. In bed bugs, both the odorant identity and concentrations play important roles in determining the strength of these responses. The odor space constructed based on the responses from all the odorant receptors tested revealed that odorants within the same chemical group are widely dispersed while odorants from different groups are intermingled, suggesting the complexity of odorant encoding in the bed bug odorant receptors. This study provides a comprehensive picture of the olfactory coding mechanisms of bed bugs that will ultimately contribute to the design and development of novel olfactory-based strategies to reduce both the biting nuisance and disease transmission from bed bugs. PMID:28383033

RNAi-Mediated Knockdown of vATPase Subunits Affects Survival and Reproduction of Bed Bugs (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Basnet, Sanjay; Kamble, Shripat T

2018-05-04

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) has resurged as one of the most troublesome household pests affecting people across the globe. Bed bug infestations have increased in recent years primarily due to the evolution of insecticide resistance and the insect's ability to hitchhike with travelers. vATPases are one of the most evolutionarily conserved holoenzymes in eukaryotes, which are mainly involved in proton transport across the plasma membranes and intracellular organelles. RNA interference (RNAi) has been developed as a promising tool for insect control. In this study, we used RNAi as an approach to knock down subunits A and E of the vATPase gene of bed bugs. Delivery of 0.2 µg/insect of dsRNA specific to vATPase-A and vATPase-E into female bed bugs dramatically impaired the laying and viability of eggs over time. Injection of the vATPase-E dsRNA decreased survival of the bed bugs over 30 d. Our results also showed that the knockdown of mRNA is highly effective and persistent up to 30 d post injection. This research demonstrated that silencing of the two vATPase subunits A and E offers a potential strategy to suppress bed bug populations.

Lightweight and Statistical Techniques for Petascale PetaScale Debugging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Barton

2014-06-30

This project investigated novel techniques for debugging scientific applications on petascale architectures. In particular, we developed lightweight tools that narrow the problem space when bugs are encountered. We also developed techniques that either limit the number of tasks and the code regions to which a developer must apply a traditional debugger or that apply statistical techniques to provide direct suggestions of the location and type of error. We extend previous work on the Stack Trace Analysis Tool (STAT), that has already demonstrated scalability to over one hundred thousand MPI tasks. We also extended statistical techniques developed to isolate programming errorsmore » in widely used sequential or threaded applications in the Cooperative Bug Isolation (CBI) project to large scale parallel applications. Overall, our research substantially improved productivity on petascale platforms through a tool set for debugging that complements existing commercial tools. Previously, Office Of Science application developers relied either on primitive manual debugging techniques based on printf or they use tools, such as TotalView, that do not scale beyond a few thousand processors. However, bugs often arise at scale and substantial effort and computation cycles are wasted in either reproducing the problem in a smaller run that can be analyzed with the traditional tools or in repeated runs at scale that use the primitive techniques. New techniques that work at scale and automate the process of identifying the root cause of errors were needed. These techniques significantly reduced the time spent debugging petascale applications, thus leading to a greater overall amount of time for application scientists to pursue the scientific objectives for which the systems are purchased. We developed a new paradigm for debugging at scale: techniques that reduced the debugging scenario to a scale suitable for traditional debuggers, e.g., by narrowing the search for the root-cause analysis to a small set of nodes or by identifying equivalence classes of nodes and sampling our debug targets from them. We implemented these techniques as lightweight tools that efficiently work on the full scale of the target machine. We explored four lightweight debugging refinements: generic classification parameters, such as stack traces, application-specific classification parameters, such as global variables, statistical data acquisition techniques and machine learning based approaches to perform root cause analysis. Work done under this project can be divided into two categories, new algorithms and techniques for scalable debugging, and foundation infrastructure work on our MRNet multicast-reduction framework for scalability, and Dyninst binary analysis and instrumentation toolkits.« less

Smooth random change point models.

PubMed

van den Hout, Ardo; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E

2011-03-15

Change point models are used to describe processes over time that show a change in direction. An example of such a process is cognitive ability, where a decline a few years before death is sometimes observed. A broken-stick model consists of two linear parts and a breakpoint where the two lines intersect. Alternatively, models can be formulated that imply a smooth change between the two linear parts. Change point models can be extended by adding random effects to account for variability between subjects. A new smooth change point model is introduced and examples are presented that show how change point models can be estimated using functions in R for mixed-effects models. The Bayesian inference using WinBUGS is also discussed. The methods are illustrated using data from a population-based longitudinal study of ageing, the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study. The aim is to identify how many years before death individuals experience a change in the rate of decline of their cognitive ability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Three Insights from a Bayesian Interpretation of the One-Sided "P" Value

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marsman, Maarten; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2017-01-01

P values have been critiqued on several grounds but remain entrenched as the dominant inferential method in the empirical sciences. In this article, we elaborate on the fact that in many statistical models, the one-sided "P" value has a direct Bayesian interpretation as the approximate posterior mass for values lower than zero. The…

Are Student Evaluations of Teaching Effectiveness Valid for Measuring Student Learning Outcomes in Business Related Classes? A Neural Network and Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.

2012-01-01

In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…

75 FR 6209 - Guidance for Industry and Food and Drug Administration; Guidance for the Use of Bayesian...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-08

... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2006-D-0410] (formerly Docket No. 2006D-0191) Guidance for Industry and Food and Drug Administration; Guidance for the Use of Bayesian Statistics in Medical Device Clinical Trials; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug...

Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language for Bayesian Inference and Optimization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gelman, Andrew; Lee, Daniel; Guo, Jiqiang

2015-01-01

Stan is a free and open-source C++ program that performs Bayesian inference or optimization for arbitrary user-specified models and can be called from the command line, R, Python, Matlab, or Julia and has great promise for fitting large and complex statistical models in many areas of application. We discuss Stan from users' and developers'…

Structure Learning in Bayesian Sensorimotor Integration

PubMed Central

Genewein, Tim; Hez, Eduard; Razzaghpanah, Zeynab; Braun, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

Previous studies have shown that sensorimotor processing can often be described by Bayesian learning, in particular the integration of prior and feedback information depending on its degree of reliability. Here we test the hypothesis that the integration process itself can be tuned to the statistical structure of the environment. We exposed human participants to a reaching task in a three-dimensional virtual reality environment where we could displace the visual feedback of their hand position in a two dimensional plane. When introducing statistical structure between the two dimensions of the displacement, we found that over the course of several days participants adapted their feedback integration process in order to exploit this structure for performance improvement. In control experiments we found that this adaptation process critically depended on performance feedback and could not be induced by verbal instructions. Our results suggest that structural learning is an important meta-learning component of Bayesian sensorimotor integration. PMID:26305797

A product Pearson-type VII density distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadarajah, Saralees; Kotz, Samuel

2008-01-01

The Pearson-type VII distributions (containing the Student's t distributions) are becoming increasing prominent and are being considered as competitors to the normal distribution. Motivated by real examples in decision sciences, Bayesian statistics, probability theory and Physics, a new Pearson-type VII distribution is introduced by taking the product of two Pearson-type VII pdfs. Various structural properties of this distribution are derived, including its cdf, moments, mean deviation about the mean, mean deviation about the median, entropy, asymptotic distribution of the extreme order statistics, maximum likelihood estimates and the Fisher information matrix. Finally, an application to a Bayesian testing problem is illustrated.

Bayesian generalized linear mixed modeling of Tuberculosis using informative priors.

PubMed

Ojo, Oluwatobi Blessing; Lougue, Siaka; Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa

2017-01-01

TB is rated as one of the world's deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014.

Recolonization of bat roost by bat bugs (Cimex pipistrelli): could parasite load be a cause of bat roost switching?

PubMed

Bartonička, Tomáš; Růžičková, Lucie

2013-04-01

Roost ectoparasites are believed to have a negative impact on fitness of their hosts as birds or mammals. Previous studies were mostly focussed on the synchronization between reproduction cycles of ectoparasites and hosts living in infested roosts. However, to date, it has not been examined how fast ectoparasites colonize new, non-infested roosts and thus increasing the impact on the local populations of hosts. The parasite-host model was studied, including bat bugs Cimex pipistrelli and soprano pipistrelles Pipistrellus pygmaeus, where bat behaviour was observed which tended to reduce the parasite load in bat roosts. We investigated (1) whether bats change their roosting behaviour when we discontinued synchronization of their reproduction and the life cycle of the bat bugs and (2) how fast and which stages of bat bugs reoccupy cleaned roosts. In a 3-year field experiment, we removed all bat bugs from six bat boxes in each spring. Pipistrelles bred young in all non-infested boxes during these 3 years. In addition, 8 years of regular observations before this experiment indicate that bats avoided breeding in the same bat boxes at all. Bat bugs were found again in clean boxes in mid-May. However, their densities did not maximise before the beginning of June, before parturition. A re-appearance of bugs was observed after 21-56 days after the first bat visit. Adult bugs, mainly females, colonised cleaned boxes first though at the same time there were a lot of younger and smaller instars in non-manipulated roosts in the vicinity.

Stability of Spatial Distributions of Stink Bugs, Boll Injury, and NDVI in Cotton.

PubMed

Reay-Jones, Francis P F; Greene, Jeremy K; Bauer, Philip J

2016-10-01

A 3-yr study was conducted to determine the degree of aggregation of stink bugs and boll injury in cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., and their spatial association with a multispectral vegetation index (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]). Using the spatial analysis by distance indices analyses, stink bugs were less frequently aggregated (17% for adults and 4% for nymphs) than boll injury (36%). NDVI values were also significantly aggregated within fields in 19 of 48 analyses (40%), with the majority of significant indices occurring in July and August. Paired NDVI datasets from different sampling dates were frequently associated (86.5% for weekly intervals among datasets). Spatial distributions of both stink bugs and boll injury were less stable than for NDVI, with positive associations varying from 12.5 to 25% for adult stink bugs for weekly intervals, depending on species. Spatial distributions of boll injury from stink bug feeding were more stable than stink bugs, with 46% positive associations among paired datasets with weekly intervals. NDVI values were positively associated with boll injury from stink bug feeding in 11 out of 22 analyses, with no significant negative associations. This indicates that NDVI has potential as a component of site-specific management. Future work should continue to examine the value of remote sensing for insect management in cotton, with an aim to develop tools such as risk assessment maps that will help growers to reduce insecticide inputs. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Application of Bayesian Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Antiviral Treatments in Chronic Hepatitis B.

PubMed

Zhang, Hua; Huo, Mingdong; Chao, Jianqian; Liu, Pei

2016-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major problem for public health; timely antiviral treatment can significantly prevent the progression of liver damage from HBV by slowing down or stopping the virus from reproducing. In the study we applied Bayesian approach to cost-effectiveness analysis, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for the relevant evidence input into the model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of entecavir (ETV) and lamivudine (LVD) therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in Jiangsu, China, thus providing information to the public health system in the CHB therapy. Eight-stage Markov model was developed, a hypothetical cohort of 35-year-old HBeAg-positive patients with CHB was entered into the model. Treatment regimens were LVD100mg daily and ETV 0.5 mg daily. The transition parameters were derived either from systematic reviews of the literature or from previous economic studies. The outcome measures were life-years, quality-adjusted lifeyears (QALYs), and expected costs associated with the treatments and disease progression. For the Bayesian models all the analysis was implemented by using WinBUGS version 1.4. Expected cost, life expectancy, QALYs decreased with age. Cost-effectiveness increased with age. Expected cost of ETV was less than LVD, while life expectancy and QALYs were higher than that of LVD, ETV strategy was more cost-effective. Costs and benefits of the Monte Carlo simulation were very close to the results of exact form among the group, but standard deviation of each group indicated there was a big difference between individual patients. Compared with lamivudine, entecavir is the more cost-effective option. CHB patients should accept antiviral treatment as soon as possible as the lower age the more cost-effective. Monte Carlo simulation obtained costs and effectiveness distribution, indicate our Markov model is of good robustness.

Bed Bug Epidemic: A Challenge to Public Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut; Ritzel, Dale O.; Haramis, Linn D.; Bliss, Kadi R.

2011-01-01

In recent years, reported cases of bed bug infestations in the U.S. and throughout the world have escalated dramatically, posing a global public health problem. Although bed bugs are not known to transmit disease to humans, they pose both direct and indirect public health challenges in terms of health effects, treatment, cost, and resource…

Vision in the common bed bug Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae): eye morphology and spectral sensitivity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bed bugs as pests of public health importance recently experienced a resurgence in populations throughout the U.S. and other countries. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on improving understanding of bed bug physiology and behavior to improve management. While few studies have inves...

Genetic variation in field and laboratory populations of the spined soldier bug Podisus maculiventris (Say) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The predatory spined soldier bug, Podisus maculiventris, is an economically important and high-valued biological control agent. There is substantial information on the biology, ecology, behavior and rearing of this stink bug. However, virtually nothing is known of its genetic variation, in natural...

Pheromone of the banana-spotting bug, amblypelta lutescens lutescens Distant (Hemiptera: Coreidae): identification, synthesis and field bioassay

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The banana spotting bug Amblypelta lutescens lutescens Distant (Hemiptera: Coreidae) is one of the principal pests of tree fruits and nuts across northern and eastern Australia. Apart from damage assessments in orchards, there are currently no other methods for monitoring bug activity to aid manage...

Evaluation of cimi-shield knock-out bed bug eliminator against house fly (Musca domestica) adults

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cimi-Shield Knock-Out (CSKO) Bed Bug Eliminator is a green treatment labeled for use against bed bugs, carpet beetles, ants, roaches, fleas, ticks, silverfish, millipedes and centipedes. The active ingredient is soybean oil. If CSKO is formulated according to label instructions and sprayed directly ...

Relative longevity of adult Nezara viridula (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in cotton, peanut and soybean

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Producers in the Southeastern US face significant crop losses from the stink bugs, Nezara viridula, Euschistus servus, and Chinavia hilaris. Cotton, peanut, and soybean are major agronomic crops and host plants of stink bugs in the region. N. viridula colonize and feed in peanut. Stink bugs prefer t...

Susceptibility of redbanded and conchuela stink bugs from the Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley to organophosphate and pyrethroid insecticides

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We report the susceptibility of 2 stink bug species, red banded stink bug (RBSB), Piezodorus guildinii, (Westwood) and conchuela stinkbug, Chlorochroa ligata (Say) collected in the Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley to selected pyrethroid and organophosphate technical grade insecticides. The adult glass ...

Evaluation of cimi-shield knock-out bed bug eliminator against house fly (Musca domestica) adults.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cimi-Shield Knock-Out (CSKO) Bed Bug Eliminator is a green treatment labeled for use against bed bugs, carpet beetles, ants, roaches, fleas, ticks, silverfish, millipedes and centipedes. The active ingredient is soybean oil. If CSKO is formulated according to label instructions and sprayed directly ...

Association of Verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus (Hemiptera: Miridae), with cotton boll rot

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton along the Gulf Coast of south Texas has experienced loss from cotton boll rot especially during the last 10 to 15 years, and stink bugs and plant bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae and Miridae) that feed on cotton bolls have been suspected in introducing the disease. A replicated grower field surv...

Chapter 15. The Big-Eyed Bugs, Chinch Bugs, and Seed Bugs (Lygaeoidea)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Lygaeoidea, representing the second largest superfamily in the infraorder Pentatomomorpha, are one of the most diverse groups of Heteroptera with about 700 genera and more than 4200 species in the world. In the Neotropics, about 184 genera and 836 species are included in 12 of the world’s 16 fa...

Millennium bug

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

After global fears of computer snafus prompted billions of dollars of remedial action, the Y2K bug appears to have vanished with barely a trace. But on January l, taxonomists with the entomology division of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) reported the discovery of an insect whose scientific and common names will be the "millennium bug."

Area-wide management approach for tarnished plant bug in the Mississippi Delta

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The tarnished plant bug, Lygus lineolaris (Palisot de Beauvois), is the major insect pest of cotton, Gossypium hirsutum (L.), within the Mid-South region. From 2001 to 2012, the tarnished plant bug has been the number one insect pest of cotton in Louisiana and Mississippi in eleven and nine of those...

Brown marmorated stink bug detections in Mississippi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys, was first detected in the U.S. in Pennsylvania in 1998. This pest is now well-established in the northeast and has been detected in more than 25 states, including Oregon. These non-native stink bugs look much like many of our native stink b...

Psychological effects of bed bug attacks (Cimex lectularius L.).

PubMed

Goddard, Jerome; de Shazo, Richard

2012-01-01

In some individuals, psychological sequelae resulting from bed bug biting events include nightmares, flashbacks, hypervigilance (to keep the bugs away), insomnia, anxiety, avoidance behaviors, and personal dysfunction. These symptoms are suggestive of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We used a previously published PTSD checklist to analyze online blogs and other Internet sites where bed bug postings occur to assess postings for evidence of emotional trauma. One hundred thirty-five postings were read and analyzed, and 110 (81%) of those postings reported psychological effects from bed bug infestations. Scoring with the PTSD checklist revealed a range of 0-52 (mean 13.25; SD 9.38); one met the criteria (≥50) considered positive for PTSD. Based upon our survey of online postings concerning such effects, an as-yet-to-be-determined proportion of individuals who experience bed bug bites develop moderate-to-severe negative emotional symptoms after infestations. These individuals should be identified in the course of their interactions with health professionals so that appropriate mental health care may be provided. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Seasons, Searches, and Intentions: What The Internet Can Tell Us About The Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) Epidemic.

PubMed

Sentana-Lledo, Daniel; Barbu, Corentin M; Ngo, Michelle N; Wu, Yage; Sethuraman, Karthik; Levy, Michael Z

2016-01-01

The common bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) is once again prevalent in the United States. We investigated temporal patterns in Google search queries for bed bugs and co-occurring terms, and conducted in-person surveys to explore the intentions behind searches that included those terms. Searches for "bed bugs" rose steadily through 2011 and then plateaued, suggesting that the epidemic has reached an equilibrium in the United States. However, queries including terms that survey respondents associated strongly with having bed bugs (e.g., "exterminator," "remedies") continued to climb, while terms more closely associated with informational searches (e.g., "hotels," "about") fell. Respondents' rankings of terms and nonseasonal trends in Google search volume as assessed by a cosinor model were significantly correlated (Kendall's Tau-b P = 0.015). We find no evidence from Google Trends that the bed bug epidemic in the United States has reached equilibrium. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mining Bug Databases for Unidentified Software Vulnerabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dumidu Wijayasekara; Milos Manic; Jason Wright

2012-06-01

Identifying software vulnerabilities is becoming more important as critical and sensitive systems increasingly rely on complex software systems. It has been suggested in previous work that some bugs are only identified as vulnerabilities long after the bug has been made public. These vulnerabilities are known as hidden impact vulnerabilities. This paper discusses the feasibility and necessity to mine common publicly available bug databases for vulnerabilities that are yet to be identified. We present bug database analysis of two well known and frequently used software packages, namely Linux kernel and MySQL. It is shown that for both Linux and MySQL, amore » significant portion of vulnerabilities that were discovered for the time period from January 2006 to April 2011 were hidden impact vulnerabilities. It is also shown that the percentage of hidden impact vulnerabilities has increased in the last two years, for both software packages. We then propose an improved hidden impact vulnerability identification methodology based on text mining bug databases, and conclude by discussing a few potential problems faced by such a classifier.« less

On Some Assumptions of the Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patriota, Alexandre Galvão

2017-01-01

Bayesian and classical statistical approaches are based on different types of logical principles. In order to avoid mistaken inferences and misguided interpretations, the practitioner must respect the inference rules embedded into each statistical method. Ignoring these principles leads to the paradoxical conclusions that the hypothesis…

Advances in statistics

Treesearch

Howard Stauffer; Nadav Nur

2005-01-01

The papers included in the Advances in Statistics section of the Partners in Flight (PIF) 2002 Proceedings represent a small sample of statistical topics of current importance to Partners In Flight research scientists: hierarchical modeling, estimation of detection probabilities, and Bayesian applications. Sauer et al. (this volume) examines a hierarchical model...

A review and comparison of Bayesian and likelihood-based inferences in beta regression and zero-or-one-inflated beta regression.

PubMed

Liu, Fang; Eugenio, Evercita C

2018-04-01

Beta regression is an increasingly popular statistical technique in medical research for modeling of outcomes that assume values in (0, 1), such as proportions and patient reported outcomes. When outcomes take values in the intervals [0,1), (0,1], or [0,1], zero-or-one-inflated beta (zoib) regression can be used. We provide a thorough review on beta regression and zoib regression in the modeling, inferential, and computational aspects via the likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. We demonstrate the statistical and practical importance of correctly modeling the inflation at zero/one rather than ad hoc replacing them with values close to zero/one via simulation studies; the latter approach can lead to biased estimates and invalid inferences. We show via simulation studies that the likelihood-based approach is computationally faster in general than MCMC algorithms used in the Bayesian inferences, but runs the risk of non-convergence, large biases, and sensitivity to starting values in the optimization algorithm especially with clustered/correlated data, data with sparse inflation at zero and one, and data that warrant regularization of the likelihood. The disadvantages of the regular likelihood-based approach make the Bayesian approach an attractive alternative in these cases. Software packages and tools for fitting beta and zoib regressions in both the likelihood-based and Bayesian frameworks are also reviewed.

Bayesian approach to estimate AUC, partition coefficient and drug targeting index for studies with serial sacrifice design.

PubMed

Wang, Tianli; Baron, Kyle; Zhong, Wei; Brundage, Richard; Elmquist, William

2014-03-01

The current study presents a Bayesian approach to non-compartmental analysis (NCA), which provides the accurate and precise estimate of AUC 0 (∞) and any AUC 0 (∞) -based NCA parameter or derivation. In order to assess the performance of the proposed method, 1,000 simulated datasets were generated in different scenarios. A Bayesian method was used to estimate the tissue and plasma AUC 0 (∞) s and the tissue-to-plasma AUC 0 (∞) ratio. The posterior medians and the coverage of 95% credible intervals for the true parameter values were examined. The method was applied to laboratory data from a mice brain distribution study with serial sacrifice design for illustration. Bayesian NCA approach is accurate and precise in point estimation of the AUC 0 (∞) and the partition coefficient under a serial sacrifice design. It also provides a consistently good variance estimate, even considering the variability of the data and the physiological structure of the pharmacokinetic model. The application in the case study obtained a physiologically reasonable posterior distribution of AUC, with a posterior median close to the value estimated by classic Bailer-type methods. This Bayesian NCA approach for sparse data analysis provides statistical inference on the variability of AUC 0 (∞) -based parameters such as partition coefficient and drug targeting index, so that the comparison of these parameters following destructive sampling becomes statistically feasible.

Morphological and Behavioral Convergence in Extinct and Extant Bugs: The Systematics and Biology of a New Unusual Fossil Lace Bug from the Eocene

PubMed Central

Wappler, Torsten; Guilbert, Eric; Labandeira, Conrad C.; Hörnschemeyer, Thomas; Wedmann, Sonja

2015-01-01

The bug Gyaclavator kohlsi Wappler, Guilbert, Wedmann et Labandeira, gen. et sp. nov., represents a new extinct genus of lace bugs (Insecta: Heteroptera: Tingidae) occurring in latest early Eocene deposits of the Green River Formation, from the southern Piceance Basin of Northwestern Colorado, in North America. Gyaclavator can be placed within the Tingidae with certainty, perhaps it is sistergroup to Cantacaderinae. If it belongs to Cantacaderinae, it is the first fossil record of this group for North America. Gyaclavator has unique, conspicuous antennae bearing a specialized, highly dilated distiflagellomere, likely important for intra- or intersex reproductive competition and attraction. This character parallels similar antennae in leaf-footed bugs (Coreidae), and probably is associated with a behavioral convergence as well. PMID:26267108

Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-01-01

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

Seasonal and Regional Dynamics of M. ulcerans Transmission in Environmental Context: Deciphering the Role of Water Bugs as Hosts and Vectors

PubMed Central

Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

2010-01-01

Background Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. Methodology/Principal Findings The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. Conclusion/Significance The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer. PMID:20625552

Investigating effects of surrounding landscape composition and complexity on populations of two polyphagous insect pest groups in Iowa soybean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuntz, Cody Daniel

The composition and complexity of agro-ecosystems are important factors influencing the population dynamics of insect pests. Understanding these interactions may improve our ability to predict the spatial occurrence of pest outbreaks, thereby informing scouting and management decisions. In 2012 and 2013, two concurrent studies were conducted to examine the relationship between landscapes surrounding Iowa soybean, Glycine max [L.] Merrill, fields and two polyphagous pest groups; Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica Newman (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), and stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). Population densities were monitored in soybean within simple and complex agricultural landscapes to determine the response of these pests to landscape complexity. Results revealed P. japonica populations were significantly greater in soybean fields within complex landscapes and were positively associated with area of uncultivated land. The specific compositions of surrounding landscapes were also analyzed to determine the landscape features that explain the greatest variation in P. japonica and stink bug population densities. Results suggested that the area of wooded and grass habitat around fields accounted for the greatest variation in P. japonica populations; however, no discernable relationships were observed with stink bug populations. Sampling also sought to survey the community of stink bugs present in Iowa soybean. The community was predominantly comprised of stink bugs in the genus Euschistus, comprising a combined 91.04% of all captures. Additional species included the green stink bug, Acrosternum hilare (Say) (4.48%); spined soldier bug, Podisus maculiventris (Say) (2.99%); and red shouldered stink bug, Thyanta custator accerra (McAtee) (1.49%). Future work will be needed to determine if the landscape effects on P. japonica in soybean reported here are representative of other similar polyphagous pests of soybean and if they extend to other host plants as well. Furthermore, additional comprehensive surveys will be needed to better characterize the existing community of stink bug species present in Iowa field crops.

Selection of Soybean Pods by the Stink Bugs, Nezara viridula and Piezodorus guildinii

PubMed Central

Molina, Gonzalo A. R.; Trumper, Eduardo V.

2012-01-01

Different biological parameters of the stink bugs, Nezara viridula L. and Piezodorus guildinii Westwood (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), are affected by the developmental stage of the soybean (Glycine max Merrill) pods they feed on. These effects of the soybean on the stink bugs could represent a selection pressure leading to the ability of these species to discriminate the phenological stage of soybean pods, and, therefore, to exhibit feeding preferences. We designed three studies: (1) Distant detection of soybean pods through an olfactometer; (2) Free choice tests to evaluate preferences for soybean pods of different developmental stages; (3) No choice tests to study effects of soybean pod development on feeding time and number of probes. Stink bugs showed no differential response to olfactometer arms with or without soybean pods, suggesting an inability to detect soybean volatiles. Free choice tests showed no species effects on pods selection, but significant differences among fifth instar nymphs, adult male, and adult females. Fifth instar nymphs fed more frequently on soybean pods of advanced development stages compared to female adults, despite previous evidence showing poor development of stink bugs fed pods of the same stage. No choice tests showed significant effects of stink bug species, stink bug stage and sex, and soybean pod phenology. N. viridula expressed shorter feeding times and higher numbers of probes than P. guildinii. The highest numbers of probes of both species were observed when they were fed soybean pods in early phenological stages. When placed in direct contact with food, fifth instar nymphs prefered to feed on more developed pods, despite these pods being suboptimal food items. These results suggest that for the ecological time framework of soybean-stink bugs coexistence, around thirty-five years in Argentina, the selection pressure was not enough for stink bugs to evolve food preferences that match their performance on soybean pods of different development stages. PMID:23437991

Comparison between the basic least squares and the Bayesian approach for elastic constants identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gogu, C.; Haftka, R.; LeRiche, R.; Molimard, J.; Vautrin, A.; Sankar, B.

2008-11-01

The basic formulation of the least squares method, based on the L2 norm of the misfit, is still widely used today for identifying elastic material properties from experimental data. An alternative statistical approach is the Bayesian method. We seek here situations with significant difference between the material properties found by the two methods. For a simple three bar truss example we illustrate three such situations in which the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate results: different magnitude of the measurements, different uncertainty in the measurements and correlation among measurements. When all three effects add up, the Bayesian approach can have a large advantage. We then compared the two methods for identification of elastic constants from plate vibration natural frequencies.

Bed bug outbreak in a neonatal unit.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, T; Kumar, A; Saili, A

2015-10-01

There has been a worldwide increase in bed bug infestations over the last 10-15 years. A major stigma is placed upon the institutions found to be infested. We report our experience with an outbreak of the tropical bed bug, Cimex hemipterus, in a neonatal unit. The outbreak not only affected the admitted newborns and mothers by causing a wide variety of rashes and inducing sleeplessness, but also impinged upon the health professionals and their families by producing similar symptomology. It is important for healthcare providers to be aware of, and for each healthcare facility to have, bed bug prevention and control policies.

Practical Bayesian tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

2016-03-01

In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

Bayesian depth estimation from monocular natural images.

PubMed

Su, Che-Chun; Cormack, Lawrence K; Bovik, Alan C

2017-05-01

Estimating an accurate and naturalistic dense depth map from a single monocular photographic image is a difficult problem. Nevertheless, human observers have little difficulty understanding the depth structure implied by photographs. Two-dimensional (2D) images of the real-world environment contain significant statistical information regarding the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the world that the vision system likely exploits to compute perceived depth, monocularly as well as binocularly. Toward understanding how this might be accomplished, we propose a Bayesian model of monocular depth computation that recovers detailed 3D scene structures by extracting reliable, robust, depth-sensitive statistical features from single natural images. These features are derived using well-accepted univariate natural scene statistics (NSS) models and recent bivariate/correlation NSS models that describe the relationships between 2D photographic images and their associated depth maps. This is accomplished by building a dictionary of canonical local depth patterns from which NSS features are extracted as prior information. The dictionary is used to create a multivariate Gaussian mixture (MGM) likelihood model that associates local image features with depth patterns. A simple Bayesian predictor is then used to form spatial depth estimates. The depth results produced by the model, despite its simplicity, correlate well with ground-truth depths measured by a current-generation terrestrial light detection and ranging (LIDAR) scanner. Such a strong form of statistical depth information could be used by the visual system when creating overall estimated depth maps incorporating stereopsis, accommodation, and other conditions. Indeed, even in isolation, the Bayesian predictor delivers depth estimates that are competitive with state-of-the-art "computer vision" methods that utilize highly engineered image features and sophisticated machine learning algorithms.

Analysis of statistical and standard algorithms for detecting muscle onset with surface electromyography

PubMed Central

Tweedell, Andrew J.; Haynes, Courtney A.

2017-01-01

The timing of muscle activity is a commonly applied analytic method to understand how the nervous system controls movement. This study systematically evaluates six classes of standard and statistical algorithms to determine muscle onset in both experimental surface electromyography (EMG) and simulated EMG with a known onset time. Eighteen participants had EMG collected from the biceps brachii and vastus lateralis while performing a biceps curl or knee extension, respectively. Three established methods and three statistical methods for EMG onset were evaluated. Linear envelope, Teager-Kaiser energy operator + linear envelope and sample entropy were the established methods evaluated while general time series mean/variance, sequential and batch processing of parametric and nonparametric tools, and Bayesian changepoint analysis were the statistical techniques used. Visual EMG onset (experimental data) and objective EMG onset (simulated data) were compared with algorithmic EMG onset via root mean square error and linear regression models for stepwise elimination of inferior algorithms. The top algorithms for both data types were analyzed for their mean agreement with the gold standard onset and evaluation of 95% confidence intervals. The top algorithms were all Bayesian changepoint analysis iterations where the parameter of the prior (p0) was zero. The best performing Bayesian algorithms were p0 = 0 and a posterior probability for onset determination at 60–90%. While existing algorithms performed reasonably, the Bayesian changepoint analysis methodology provides greater reliability and accuracy when determining the singular onset of EMG activity in a time series. Further research is needed to determine if this class of algorithms perform equally well when the time series has multiple bursts of muscle activity. PMID:28489897

RNA Interference of the Muscle Actin Gene in Bed Bugs: Exploring Injection Versus Topical Application for dsRNA Delivery.

PubMed

Basnet, Sanjay; Kamble, Shripat T

2018-05-01

Bed bugs are one the most troublesome household pests that feed primarily on human blood. RNA interference (RNAi) is currently being pursued as a potential tool for insect population management and has shown efficacy against some phytophagous insects. We evaluated the different techniques to deliver dsRNA specific to bed bug muscle actin (dsactin) into bed bugs. Initially, stability of dsRNA in human blood was studied to evaluate the feasibility of feeding method. Adult bed bugs were injected with dsRNA between last thoracic segment and first abdominal segment on the ventral side, with a dose of 0.2 µg dsactin per insect. In addition to injection, dsactin was mixed in acetone and treated topically in the abdomens of fifth stage nymphs. We found the quick degradation of dsRNA in blood. Injection of dsactin caused significant depletion of actin transcripts and substantial reduction in oviposition and lethality in female adults. Topically treated dsRNA in fifth stage nymphs had no effect on actin mRNA expression and survival. Our results demonstrated that injection is a reliable method of dsRNA delivery into bed bugs while topical treatment was not successful. This research provides an understanding on effective delivery methods of dsRNA into bed bugs for functional genomics research and feasibility of the RNAi based molecules for pest management purposes.

Two compounds in bed bug feces are sufficient to elicit off-host aggregation by bed bugs, Cimex lectularius.

PubMed

Olson, Joelle F; Vers, Leonard M Ver; Moon, Roger D; Kells, Stephen A

2017-01-01

After feeding, bed bugs aggregate in cracks and crevices near a host. Aggregation and arrestment are mediated by tactile and chemical stimuli associated with the bugs' feces and exuviae. Volatiles derived from fecally stained filter papers were analyzed by solid-phase microextraction (SPME) and evaluated using a multichoice behavioral assay to determine their impact on bed bug aggregation. In addition, crude fecal extracts were collected in methanol, analyzed by gas chromatography coupled with electroantennogram detection (GC-EAD) and mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and evaluated in open-air multichoice behavioral assays. The SPME method was used to detect (E)-2-hexenal and (E)-2-octenal in heated bed bug feces. The presence of these two volatile components did not affect aggregation. Analysis of the crude fecal extracts revealed several semi-volatile nitrogenous compounds, a carboxylic acid and a sulfur-based compound. Adult antennae responded to compounds eluted from three regions of the crude extract using GC-EAD. A combination of two compounds, dimethyl trisulfide and methyldiethanolamine, resulted in aggregation responses equivalent to the original crude extract. Bed bug aggregation is mediated by semi-volatile compounds derived from fecal extracts, and two compounds are sufficient to elicit aggregation. The two compounds identified here could be used to enhance the effectiveness of insecticidal applications or improve monitoring techniques. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Hybridization and adaptation to introduced balloon vines in an Australian soapberry bug.

PubMed

Andres, J A; Thampy, P R; Mathieson, M T; Loye, J; Zalucki, M P; Dingle, H; Carroll, S P

2013-12-01

Contemporary adaptation of plant feeding insects to introduced hosts provides clear cases of ecologically based population divergence. In most cases the mechanisms permitting rapid differentiation are not well known. Here we study morphological and genetic variation associated with recent shifts by the Australian soapberry bug Leptocoris tagalicus onto two naturalized Neotropical balloon vines, Cardiospermum halicacabum and C. grandiflorum that differ in time since introduction. Our results show that these vines have much larger fruits than the native hosts (Whitewood tree -Atalaya hemiglauca- and Woolly Rambutan -Alectryon tomentosus-) and that bugs living on them have evolved significantly longer beaks and new allometries. Genetic analyses of mitochondrial haplotypes and amplified fragment length polymorphic (AFLP) markers indicate that the lineage of bugs on the annual vine C. halicacabum, the older introduction, is intermediate between the two subspecies of L. tagalicus found on native hosts. Moreover, where the annual vine and Whitewood tree co-occur, the morphology and genomic composition of the bugs are similar to those occurring in allopatry. These results show that hybridization provided the genetic elements underlying the strongly differentiated 'Halicacabum bugs'. In contrast, the bugs feeding on the recently introduced perennial balloon vine (C. grandiflorum) showed no evidence of admixture, and are genetically indistinguishable from the nearby populations on a native host. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bug22p, a Conserved Centrosomal/Ciliary Protein Also Present in Higher Plants, Is Required for an Effective Ciliary Stroke in Paramecium ▿ †

PubMed Central

Laligné, C.; Klotz, C.; Garreau de Loubresse, N.; Lemullois, M.; Hori, M.; Laurent, F. X.; Papon, J. F.; Louis, B.; Cohen, J.; Koll, F.

2010-01-01

Centrioles, cilia, and flagella are ancestral conserved organelles of eukaryotic cells. Among the proteins identified in the proteomics of ciliary proteins in Paramecium, we focus here on a protein, Bug22p, previously detected by cilia and basal-body high-throughput studies but never analyzed per se. Remarkably, this protein is also present in plants, which lack centrioles and cilia. Bug22p sequence alignments revealed consensus positions that distinguish species with centrioles/cilia from plants. In Paramecium, antibody and green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion labeling localized Bug22p in basal bodies and cilia, and electron microscopy immunolabeling refined the localization to the terminal plate of the basal bodies, the transition zone, and spots along the axoneme, preferentially between the membrane and the microtubules. RNA interference (RNAi) depletion of Bug22p provoked a strong decrease in swimming speed, followed by cell death after a few days. High-speed video microscopy and morphological analysis of Bug22p-depleted cells showed that the protein plays an important role in the efficiency of ciliary movement by participating in the stroke shape and rigidity of cilia. The defects in cell swimming and growth provoked by RNAi can be complemented by expression of human Bug22p. This is the first reported case of complementation by a human gene in a ciliate. PMID:20118210

Bug22p, a conserved centrosomal/ciliary protein also present in higher plants, is required for an effective ciliary stroke in Paramecium.

PubMed

Laligné, C; Klotz, C; de Loubresse, N Garreau; Lemullois, M; Hori, M; Laurent, F X; Papon, J F; Louis, B; Cohen, J; Koll, F

2010-04-01

Centrioles, cilia, and flagella are ancestral conserved organelles of eukaryotic cells. Among the proteins identified in the proteomics of ciliary proteins in Paramecium, we focus here on a protein, Bug22p, previously detected by cilia and basal-body high-throughput studies but never analyzed per se. Remarkably, this protein is also present in plants, which lack centrioles and cilia. Bug22p sequence alignments revealed consensus positions that distinguish species with centrioles/cilia from plants. In Paramecium, antibody and green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion labeling localized Bug22p in basal bodies and cilia, and electron microscopy immunolabeling refined the localization to the terminal plate of the basal bodies, the transition zone, and spots along the axoneme, preferentially between the membrane and the microtubules. RNA interference (RNAi) depletion of Bug22p provoked a strong decrease in swimming speed, followed by cell death after a few days. High-speed video microscopy and morphological analysis of Bug22p-depleted cells showed that the protein plays an important role in the efficiency of ciliary movement by participating in the stroke shape and rigidity of cilia. The defects in cell swimming and growth provoked by RNAi can be complemented by expression of human Bug22p. This is the first reported case of complementation by a human gene in a ciliate.

Status of Urban Bed Bug Infestations in Southern China: An Analysis of Pest Control Service Records in Shenzhen in 2012 and Dongguan in 2013.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Cai, Xuquan; Xu, Yijuan

2015-01-01

The recent resurgence of bed bugs (Cimex spp.) in many developed countries has drawn increasing attention worldwide. The status of urban bed bug infestations were investigated in Shenzhen and Dongguan, two major cities in southern Guangdong Province of southern China, based on pest control service records from two different companies (one during 2012 and another during 2013). The results showed that Shenzhen and Dongguan have a severe problem with bed bug infestations: the control of bed bugs is a constant concern, except during the winter. In Shenzhen, a similar number of premises were treated for bed bugs in central business districts and suburban districts. However, in Dongguan, more premises were treated for bed bugs in suburban districts than in central business districts. The treatment rate for worker sleeping quarters, apartments, hotel, and private houses in Shenzhen was 53.8, 43.0, 1.9, and 1.3%, respectively. The percentage of treated rooms was 56.1% for worker sleeping quarters and 91.1% for apartments. In Dongguan, the treatment rate for worker sleeping quarters, apartments, hotel, and private houses was 90.0, 10.0, 0.0, and 0.0%, respectively. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Monitoring stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in mid-Atlantic apple and peach orchards.

PubMed

Leskey, T C; Hogmire, H W

2005-02-01

Pyramid traps coated with "industrial safety yellow" exterior latex gloss enamel paint and baited with Euschistus spp. aggregation pheromone, methyl (2E,4Z)-decadienoate captured more stink bugs than all other baited and unbaited trap types in both apple and peach orchards in 2002 and 2003. Commercial sources of dispensers of methyl (2E,4Z)-decadienoate deployed in association with pyramid traps had a significant impact on trap captures. Captures in pyramid traps were four-fold greater when baited with lures from IPM Technologies, Inc. (Portland, OR) than with lures from Suterra (Bend, OR). Variation in yellow pyramid trap color ("industrial safety yellow" and "standard coroplast yellow") and material (plywood, plastic, and masonite) did not affect trap captures. Brown stink bug was the predominant species captured (58%), followed by dusky stink bug, Euschistus tristigmus (Say) (20%); green stink bug, Acrosternum hilare (Say) (14%); and other stink bugs (Brochymena spp. and unidentified nymphs) (8%). Captures in baited pyramid traps were significantly correlated with tree beating samples in both managed and unmanaged apple orchards and with sweep netting samples in the unmanaged apple orchard. However, problems associated with trapping mechanisms of pyramid trap jar tops and jar traps likely resulted in reduced captures in baited traps. Improved trapping mechanisms must be established to develop an effective monitoring tool for stink bugs in mid-Atlantic orchards.

Model Selection and Psychological Theory: A Discussion of the Differences between the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vrieze, Scott I.

2012-01-01

This article reviews the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in model selection and the appraisal of psychological theory. The focus is on latent variable models, given their growing use in theory testing and construction. Theoretical statistical results in regression are discussed, and more important…

Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

Treesearch

Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

2005-01-01

We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring

Treesearch

Carlos Carroll; Devin S. Johnson; Jeffrey R. Dunk; William J. Zielinski

2010-01-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data’s spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and...

Selecting Summary Statistics in Approximate Bayesian Computation for Calibrating Stochastic Models

PubMed Central

Burr, Tom

2013-01-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the “go-to” option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example. PMID:24288668

Selecting summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation for calibrating stochastic models.

PubMed

Burr, Tom; Skurikhin, Alexei

2013-01-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the "go-to" option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example.

Morphology and proteome characterization of the salivary glands of the western chinch bug, Blissus occiduus (Hemiptera: Blissidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The western chinch bug, Blissus occiduus Barber, is a serious pest of buffalograss due to physical and chemical damage caused during the feeding process. Although previous work has investigated the feeding behaviors of chinch bugs in the Blissus complex, no study to date has explored salivary gland ...

Factors affecting captures of brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in baited pyramid traps

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Trapping experiments targeting brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stal,) addressed the effects of; 1) a modification to the trap container of a commercial trap, 2) the age of methyl (2E,4E,6Z)-decatrienoate lures, and 3) the age of dichlorvos-impregnated kill strips on bug captures. In ...

Trap capture of brown and dusky stink bugs (Hempitera: Pentatomidae) as affected by pheromone dosage in dispensers and dispenser source

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The brown, Euschistus servus (Say), and dusky, E. tristigmus (Say), stink bugs (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) readily respond to traps baited with the Euschistus spp. aggregation pheromone methyl (2E, 4Z)-decadienoate. Previous studies examining trap capture of these stink bugs have used either labora...

A laboratory study of sex- and stage-related mortality and morbidity in bed bugs (hemiptera: cimicidae) exposed to deltamethrin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Exposure of a pyrethroid-susceptible strain of bed bugs, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) to varying concentrations of deltamethrin for 24h indicated there was no significant difference in mortality between males, females, and nymphs at 24h or 168h post-exposure. Most bed bugs classified ...

76 FR 11453 - Dinotefuran; Receipt of Application for Emergency Exemption, Solicitation of Public Comment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-02

... rice to control rice stink bug (Oebalus pugnax). The applicant proposes a use which has been requested... rice to control rice stink bug (Oebalus pugnax). Information in accordance with 40 CFR part 166 was... rice stink bug in this case is not yield loss, but rather quality loss in the harvested rice. Its...

Brown marmorated stink bug odor compounds do not transfer into milk in lactating dairy cattle by feeding bug contaminated corn silage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the northeastern United States, the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys, is an emerging invasive species of grave concern to agriculture. BMSB is a highly polyphagous plant pest but also has potentially negative impact to dairy industry through contamination of silage and potent...

Bug-in-Ear eCoaching: Impacts on Novice Early Childhood Special Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grygas Coogle, Christan; Ottley, Jennifer R.; Rahn, Naomi L.; Storie, Sloan

2018-01-01

A multiple-probe, single-case design was used to determine the effects of bug-in-ear eCoaching on teachers' use of two targeted naturalistic communication strategies and focus children's responses to these strategies. Results indicated that bug-in-ear eCoaching enhanced teachers' use of communication strategies and the appropriate responses of…

Catching the Bug: How Virtual Coaching Improves Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Megan

2014-01-01

In this article the author describes virtual coaching and why it is so effective. The following six points of virtual coaching are explained: (1) Also known as bug-in-ear coaching, virtual coaching is not new; (2) Virtual coaching can save money and time; (3) Bug-in-ear coaching increases the frequency of observations for novice teachers; (4) It…

"The Bug Investigators": Assessment of a School Teaching Resource to Improve Hygiene and Prudent Use of Antibiotics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNulty, Cliodna A. M.; Bowen, Jo; Gelb, David; Charlett, Andre

2007-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this study is to measure the effectiveness of the "Bug Investigators" pack in improving children's knowledge about micro-organisms, hygiene and antibiotics when it is used within the National Curriculum in junior schools. Design/methodology/approach: Teaching, using the "Bug Investigators" pack, was given by…

Green plant bug from South Texas gets a common name - the "verde plant" bug

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Some cotton producers from south Texas and the Gulf Coast regions have been unfortunate over the last few years because they have had to deal with a green plant bug, Creontiades signatus, that will feed on cotton fruit. The insect was initially, and erroneously, thought to be Creontiades dilutus, an...

Toxicity to adult brown stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in a glass-vial bioassay of selected insecticide mixture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The brown stink bug (BSB), Euschistus servus (Say) has become the predominant species among the stink bug complex on cotton in Central Texas. Control options to suppress the insect are largely dependent upon and limited to the use of insecticides. Data are needed to determine the toxicity of current...

Biochemical Assay Detects Feeding Damage to Loblolly Pine Seeds Caused by the Leaffooted Pine Seed Bug (Hemiptera: Coreidae)

Treesearch

Cameron G. Lait; Daniel R. Miller; Sarah L. Bates; John H. Borden; Allison R. Kermode

2003-01-01

A large number of proteins in salivary gland extracts of the leaffooted pine seed bug, Leptoglossus corculus Say, were strongly recognized by a polyclonal antibody-based assay developed for detecting saliva of the western conifer seed bug, Lepfoglossus occidentalis Heidemann, in lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta var...

Millennium bug

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

After global fears of computer snafus prompted billions of dollars of remedial action, the Y2K bug appears to have vanished with barely a trace. But on January l, taxonomists with the entomology division of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) reported the discovery of an insect whose scientific and common names will be the “millennium bug.”

Impact of brown stink bug (Heteroptera: pentatomidae) feeding on corn grain yield components and quality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The economic injury level by the brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), on developing corn (Zea mays L.) ears was examined in 2005 and 2006. Stink bug infestations were initiated when ‘DKC6971’ (Bt-transgenic and roundup-ready) hybrid plants were at growth stages VT, ...

Do counts of salivary sheath flanges predict food consumption in herbivorous stink bugs [Hemiptera: Pentatomidae]?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

For Pentatomid stink bug agricultural pests, the number of salivary sheaths and sheath flanges—the portion of the sheath visible on the exterior surface of a food item—are good predictors of the loss of crop yield or quality from stink bug feeding. As the often assumed relationship between salivary ...

Edge effects of stink bugs in corn, cotton, peanut and soybean fields adjacent to woodland.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Producers face significant crop losses from stink bug species in the southeastern USA, but the high mobility and polyphagy of the bugs make predictions of their presence in crops difficult. While there is some evidence that they colonize crops from adjacent crops, there are no studies of their colo...

UNITY: Confronting Supernova Cosmology's Statistical and Systematic Uncertainties in a Unified Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, D.; Aldering, G.; Barbary, K.; Boone, K.; Chappell, G.; Currie, M.; Deustua, S.; Fagrelius, P.; Fruchter, A.; Hayden, B.; Lidman, C.; Nordin, J.; Perlmutter, S.; Saunders, C.; Sofiatti, C.; Supernova Cosmology Project, The

2015-11-01

While recent supernova (SN) cosmology research has benefited from improved measurements, current analysis approaches are not statistically optimal and will prove insufficient for future surveys. This paper discusses the limitations of current SN cosmological analyses in treating outliers, selection effects, shape- and color-standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations. We present a new Bayesian framework, called UNITY (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to confront these effects. We apply the framework to real SN observations and demonstrate smaller statistical and systematic uncertainties. We verify earlier results that SNe Ia require nonlinear shape and color standardizations, but we now include these nonlinear relations in a statistically well-justified way. This analysis was primarily performed blinded, in that the basic framework was first validated on simulated data before transitioning to real data. We also discuss possible extensions of the method.

Hypothesis-Testing Demands Trustworthy Data—A Simulation Approach to Inferential Statistics Advocating the Research Program Strategy

PubMed Central

Krefeld-Schwalb, Antonia; Witte, Erich H.; Zenker, Frank

2018-01-01

In psychology as elsewhere, the main statistical inference strategy to establish empirical effects is null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The recent failure to replicate allegedly well-established NHST-results, however, implies that such results lack sufficient statistical power, and thus feature unacceptably high error-rates. Using data-simulation to estimate the error-rates of NHST-results, we advocate the research program strategy (RPS) as a superior methodology. RPS integrates Frequentist with Bayesian inference elements, and leads from a preliminary discovery against a (random) H0-hypothesis to a statistical H1-verification. Not only do RPS-results feature significantly lower error-rates than NHST-results, RPS also addresses key-deficits of a “pure” Frequentist and a standard Bayesian approach. In particular, RPS aggregates underpowered results safely. RPS therefore provides a tool to regain the trust the discipline had lost during the ongoing replicability-crisis. PMID:29740363

Hypothesis-Testing Demands Trustworthy Data-A Simulation Approach to Inferential Statistics Advocating the Research Program Strategy.

PubMed

Krefeld-Schwalb, Antonia; Witte, Erich H; Zenker, Frank

2018-01-01

In psychology as elsewhere, the main statistical inference strategy to establish empirical effects is null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The recent failure to replicate allegedly well-established NHST-results, however, implies that such results lack sufficient statistical power, and thus feature unacceptably high error-rates. Using data-simulation to estimate the error-rates of NHST-results, we advocate the research program strategy (RPS) as a superior methodology. RPS integrates Frequentist with Bayesian inference elements, and leads from a preliminary discovery against a (random) H 0 -hypothesis to a statistical H 1 -verification. Not only do RPS-results feature significantly lower error-rates than NHST-results, RPS also addresses key-deficits of a "pure" Frequentist and a standard Bayesian approach. In particular, RPS aggregates underpowered results safely. RPS therefore provides a tool to regain the trust the discipline had lost during the ongoing replicability-crisis.

A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

DOE PAGES

Higdon, Dave; McDonnell, Jordan D.; Schunck, Nicolas; ...

2015-02-05

Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based modelmore » $$\\eta (\\theta )$$, where θ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form $$y=\\eta (\\theta )+\\epsilon ,$$ where $$\\epsilon $$ accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in $$\\eta (\\cdot )$$, the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model $$\\eta (\\cdot )$$. This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. Lastly, we also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory.« less

Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) Detection in Low-Income, High-Rise Apartments Using Four or Fewer Passive Monitors.

PubMed

Vail, K M; Chandler, J G

2017-06-01

Bed bug, Cimex lectularius L., management in low-income, high-rise housing for the elderly and disabled can be difficult. Early detection is key to slowing their spread, and reducing management cost and time needed for control. To determine the minimum number of passive monitors needed to detect low-level bed bug infestations in this environment, we evaluated three monitors placed one, two, or four per apartment in a 3 by 3 experimental design. One sticky monitor, The Bedbug Detection System, and the two pitfall monitors, ClimbUp Insect Interceptors BG and BlackOut BedBug Detectors, were evaluated. Bed bugs were trapped by the ClimbUp Insect Interceptors BG and the BlackOut BedBug Detector in 88% and 79% of apartments, respectively, but only in 39% of the apartments monitored with The Bedbug Detection System. The Bedbug Detection System required significantly longer time to detect bed bugs than either the ClimbUp Insect Interceptor BG or the BlackOut BedBug Detector. With the less effective Bedbug Detection System data removed from analyses, detection rates ranged from 80 to 90%, with no significant differences among one, two, or four monitors per apartment. Results indicate it is especially important to include a bed placement when only placing a few monitors. Future work should compare the combination of cursory visual inspections with various monitor numbers and placements per apartment to determine the most efficient, cost-effective system that will be accepted and implemented in low-income housing. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Semiochemicals of the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), and their potential for use in monitoring and control.

PubMed

Weeks, Emma N I; Birkett, Mike A; Cameron, Mary M; Pickett, John A; Logan, James G

2011-01-01

The recent resurgence of the common bed bug, Cimex lectularius L., has driven an increase in research into the biology and behaviour of this pest. Current control is reliant on the application of insecticides, but, owing to the development of insecticide resistance, there is a need for new tools and techniques. Semiochemicals (behaviour- and physiology-modifying chemicals) could be exploited for management of bed bugs. The aim of this review was to evaluate studies undertaken in bed bug chemical ecology to date, with particular reference to how the research could be exploited for monitoring and control. Bed bugs, like many other insects, have a complex olfactory system. Recent studies have characterised the olfactory sensilla, located on the terminal segment of the antennae, to functional classes by electrophysiological screening. Behavioural studies have revealed the presence of an alarm pheromone and potential airborne aggregation semiochemicals, but it is not yet understood if bed bugs use a sex pheromone during mating. Host location cues have been investigated, and carbon dioxide has been found to be highly attractive both in laboratory and in field studies. Recent field trials have tested blends of other potential kairomones, which have been shown to have an additive effect when used in a heated bed bug trap with carbon dioxide. The trap, which combines heat and kairomones, is the only trap currently available with proven efficacy in the field. In order for semiochemicals to be useful for bed bug management, an increased knowledge and understanding of the biology, behaviour and chemical ecology of this insect is essential. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Immune Responses of a Native and an Invasive Bird to Buggy Creek Virus (Togaviridae: Alphavirus) and Its Arthropod Vector, the Swallow Bug (Oeciacus vicarius)

PubMed Central

Fassbinder-Orth, Carol A.; Barak, Virginia A.; Brown, Charles R.

2013-01-01

Invasive species often display different patterns of parasite burden and virulence compared to their native counterparts. These differences may be the result of variability in host-parasite co-evolutionary relationships, the occurrence of novel host-parasite encounters, or possibly innate differences in physiological responses to infection between invasive and native hosts. Here we examine the adaptive, humoral immune responses of a resistant, native bird and a susceptible, invasive bird to an arbovirus (Buggy Creek virus; Togaviridae: Alphavirus) and its ectoparasitic arthropod vector (the swallow bug; Oeciacus vicarius). Swallow bugs parasitize the native, colonially nesting cliff swallow (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) and the introduced house sparrow (Passer domesticus) that occupies nests in cliff swallow colonies. We measured levels of BCRV-specific and swallow bug-specific IgY levels before nesting (prior to swallow bug exposure) and after nesting (after swallow bug exposure) in house sparrows and cliff swallows in western Nebraska. Levels of BCRV-specific IgY increased significantly following nesting in the house sparrow but not in the cliff swallow. Additionally, house sparrows displayed consistently higher levels of swallow bug-specific antibodies both before and after nesting compared to cliff swallows. The higher levels of BCRV and swallow bug specific antibodies detected in house sparrows may be reflective of significant differences in both antiviral and anti-ectoparasite immune responses that exist between these two avian species. To our knowledge, this is the first study to compare the macro- and microparasite-specific immune responses of an invasive and a native avian host exposed to the same parasites. PMID:23460922

Bed Bugs: The Australian Response

PubMed Central

Doggett, Stephen L.; Orton, Christopher J.; Lilly, David G.; Russell, Richard C.

2011-01-01

Australia has experienced a sudden and unexpected resurgence in bed bug infestations from both Cimex lectularius L. and Cimex hemipterus F. A survey in 2006 revealed that infestations had increased across the nation by an average of 4,500% since the start of the decade. In response, a multi-disciplinary approach to combat the rise of this public health pest was implemented and involved the coordinated efforts of several organizations. The key components of the strategy included the introduction of a pest management standard ‘A Code of Practice for the Control of Bed Bug Infestations in Australia’ that defines and promotes ‘best practice’ in bed bug eradication, the development of a policy and procedural guide for accommodation providers, education of stakeholders in best management practices, and research. These strategies continue to evolve with developments that lead to improvements in ‘best practice’ while bed bugs remain problematic in Australia. PMID:26467616

Unique features of a global human ectoparasite identified through sequencing of the bed bug genome.

PubMed

Benoit, Joshua B; Adelman, Zach N; Reinhardt, Klaus; Dolan, Amanda; Poelchau, Monica; Jennings, Emily C; Szuter, Elise M; Hagan, Richard W; Gujar, Hemant; Shukla, Jayendra Nath; Zhu, Fang; Mohan, M; Nelson, David R; Rosendale, Andrew J; Derst, Christian; Resnik, Valentina; Wernig, Sebastian; Menegazzi, Pamela; Wegener, Christian; Peschel, Nicolai; Hendershot, Jacob M; Blenau, Wolfgang; Predel, Reinhard; Johnston, Paul R; Ioannidis, Panagiotis; Waterhouse, Robert M; Nauen, Ralf; Schorn, Corinna; Ott, Mark-Christoph; Maiwald, Frank; Johnston, J Spencer; Gondhalekar, Ameya D; Scharf, Michael E; Peterson, Brittany F; Raje, Kapil R; Hottel, Benjamin A; Armisén, David; Crumière, Antonin Jean Johan; Refki, Peter Nagui; Santos, Maria Emilia; Sghaier, Essia; Viala, Sèverine; Khila, Abderrahman; Ahn, Seung-Joon; Childers, Christopher; Lee, Chien-Yueh; Lin, Han; Hughes, Daniel S T; Duncan, Elizabeth J; Murali, Shwetha C; Qu, Jiaxin; Dugan, Shannon; Lee, Sandra L; Chao, Hsu; Dinh, Huyen; Han, Yi; Doddapaneni, Harshavardhan; Worley, Kim C; Muzny, Donna M; Wheeler, David; Panfilio, Kristen A; Vargas Jentzsch, Iris M; Vargo, Edward L; Booth, Warren; Friedrich, Markus; Weirauch, Matthew T; Anderson, Michelle A E; Jones, Jeffery W; Mittapalli, Omprakash; Zhao, Chaoyang; Zhou, Jing-Jiang; Evans, Jay D; Attardo, Geoffrey M; Robertson, Hugh M; Zdobnov, Evgeny M; Ribeiro, Jose M C; Gibbs, Richard A; Werren, John H; Palli, Subba R; Schal, Coby; Richards, Stephen

2016-02-02

The bed bug, Cimex lectularius, has re-established itself as a ubiquitous human ectoparasite throughout much of the world during the past two decades. This global resurgence is likely linked to increased international travel and commerce in addition to widespread insecticide resistance. Analyses of the C. lectularius sequenced genome (650 Mb) and 14,220 predicted protein-coding genes provide a comprehensive representation of genes that are linked to traumatic insemination, a reduced chemosensory repertoire of genes related to obligate hematophagy, host-symbiont interactions, and several mechanisms of insecticide resistance. In addition, we document the presence of multiple putative lateral gene transfer events. Genome sequencing and annotation establish a solid foundation for future research on mechanisms of insecticide resistance, human-bed bug and symbiont-bed bug associations, and unique features of bed bug biology that contribute to the unprecedented success of C. lectularius as a human ectoparasite.

Kissing Bugs in the United States: Risk for Vector-Borne Disease in Humans

PubMed Central

Klotz, Stephen A; Dorn, Patricia L; Mosbacher, Mark; Schmidt, Justin O

2014-01-01

Eleven species of kissing bugs are found in the United States. Their home ranges may be expanding northward, perhaps as a consequence of climate change. At least eight of the species, perhaps all, are reported to harbor Trypanosoma cruzi, the parasite that causes Chagas disease. Because humans are encroaching on kissing bug habitat, there is concern for vector-transmitted Chagas disease in the United States. To date, documented autochthonous cases of Chagas in humans in the United States are rare. Kissing bugs are capable of adapting to new habitats such as human domiciles; however, they do not colonize homes in the United States as in Central and South America. We review the biology, behavior, and medical importance of kissing bugs and the risk they pose for transmission of Chagas disease in the United States. Where possible, descriptions of US species are compared to the epidemiologically important Latin American species. PMID:25574143

Unique features of a global human ectoparasite identified through sequencing of the bed bug genome

PubMed Central

Benoit, Joshua B.; Adelman, Zach N.; Reinhardt, Klaus; Dolan, Amanda; Poelchau, Monica; Jennings, Emily C.; Szuter, Elise M.; Hagan, Richard W.; Gujar, Hemant; Shukla, Jayendra Nath; Zhu, Fang; Mohan, M.; Nelson, David R.; Rosendale, Andrew J.; Derst, Christian; Resnik, Valentina; Wernig, Sebastian; Menegazzi, Pamela; Wegener, Christian; Peschel, Nicolai; Hendershot, Jacob M.; Blenau, Wolfgang; Predel, Reinhard; Johnston, Paul R.; Ioannidis, Panagiotis; Waterhouse, Robert M.; Nauen, Ralf; Schorn, Corinna; Ott, Mark-Christoph; Maiwald, Frank; Johnston, J. Spencer; Gondhalekar, Ameya D.; Scharf, Michael E.; Peterson, Brittany F.; Raje, Kapil R.; Hottel, Benjamin A.; Armisén, David; Crumière, Antonin Jean Johan; Refki, Peter Nagui; Santos, Maria Emilia; Sghaier, Essia; Viala, Sèverine; Khila, Abderrahman; Ahn, Seung-Joon; Childers, Christopher; Lee, Chien-Yueh; Lin, Han; Hughes, Daniel S. T.; Duncan, Elizabeth J.; Murali, Shwetha C.; Qu, Jiaxin; Dugan, Shannon; Lee, Sandra L.; Chao, Hsu; Dinh, Huyen; Han, Yi; Doddapaneni, Harshavardhan; Worley, Kim C.; Muzny, Donna M.; Wheeler, David; Panfilio, Kristen A.; Vargas Jentzsch, Iris M.; Vargo, Edward L.; Booth, Warren; Friedrich, Markus; Weirauch, Matthew T.; Anderson, Michelle A. E.; Jones, Jeffery W.; Mittapalli, Omprakash; Zhao, Chaoyang; Zhou, Jing-Jiang; Evans, Jay D.; Attardo, Geoffrey M.; Robertson, Hugh M.; Zdobnov, Evgeny M.; Ribeiro, Jose M. C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Werren, John H.; Palli, Subba R.; Schal, Coby; Richards, Stephen

2016-01-01

The bed bug, Cimex lectularius, has re-established itself as a ubiquitous human ectoparasite throughout much of the world during the past two decades. This global resurgence is likely linked to increased international travel and commerce in addition to widespread insecticide resistance. Analyses of the C. lectularius sequenced genome (650 Mb) and 14,220 predicted protein-coding genes provide a comprehensive representation of genes that are linked to traumatic insemination, a reduced chemosensory repertoire of genes related to obligate hematophagy, host–symbiont interactions, and several mechanisms of insecticide resistance. In addition, we document the presence of multiple putative lateral gene transfer events. Genome sequencing and annotation establish a solid foundation for future research on mechanisms of insecticide resistance, human–bed bug and symbiont–bed bug associations, and unique features of bed bug biology that contribute to the unprecedented success of C. lectularius as a human ectoparasite. PMID:26836814

Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

Estimation for coefficient of variation of an extension of the exponential distribution under type-II censoring scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakoban, Rana A.

2017-08-01

The coefficient of variation [CV] has several applications in applied statistics. So in this paper, we adopt Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches for the estimation of CV under type-II censored data from extension exponential distribution [EED]. The point and interval estimate of the CV are obtained for each of the maximum likelihood and parametric bootstrap techniques. Also the Bayesian approach with the help of MCMC method is presented. A real data set is presented and analyzed, hence the obtained results are used to assess the obtained theoretical results.

Bayesian Tracking of Emerging Epidemics Using Ensemble Optimal Statistical Interpolation

PubMed Central

Cobb, Loren; Krishnamurthy, Ashok; Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.

2014-01-01

We present a preliminary test of the Ensemble Optimal Statistical Interpolation (EnOSI) method for the statistical tracking of an emerging epidemic, with a comparison to its popular relative for Bayesian data assimilation, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The spatial data for this test was generated by a spatial susceptible-infectious-removed (S-I-R) epidemic model of an airborne infectious disease. Both tracking methods in this test employed Poisson rather than Gaussian noise, so as to handle epidemic data more accurately. The EnOSI and EnKF tracking methods worked well on the main body of the simulated spatial epidemic, but the EnOSI was able to detect and track a distant secondary focus of infection that the EnKF missed entirely. PMID:25113590

Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

2017-12-01

Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

Pregnancy as an opportunity to diagnose human-immunodeficiency virus immigrant women in Catalonia.

PubMed

Soriano-Arandes, Antoni; Noguera-Julian, Antoni; López-Lacort, Mónica; Soler-Palacín, Pere; Mur, Antonio; Méndez, María; Mayol, Lluís; Vallmanya, Teresa; Almeda, Jesús; Carnicer-Pont, Dolors; Casabona, Jordi; Fortuny, Claudia

2018-01-01

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is relevant in the global epidemiology of human-immunodeficiency virus (HIV), as it represents the main route of infection in children. The study objectives were to determine the rate of HIV-MTCT and its epidemiological trend between the Spanish-born and immigrant population in Catalonia in the period 2000-2014. A prospective observational study of mother-child pairs exposed to HIV, treated in 12 hospitals in Catalonia in the period 2000-2014. HIV-MTCT rate was estimated using a Bayesian logistic regression model. R and WinBUGS statistical software were used. The analysis included 909 pregnant women, 1,009 pregnancies, and 1,032 children. Data on maternal origin was obtained in 79.4% of women, of whom 32.7% were immigrants, with 53.0% of these from sub-Saharan Africa. The overall HIV-MTCT rate was 1.4% (14/1,023; 95% CI; 0.8-2.3). The risk of MTCT-HIV was 10-fold lower in women with good virological control (P=.01), which was achieved by two-thirds of them. The proportion of immigrants was significantly higher in the period 2008-2014 (P<.0001), for the HIV-diagnosis (P<.0001), and antiretroviral administration (P=.02) during pregnancy, and for undetectable viral load next to delivery (P<.001). There were no differences in the rate of MTCT-HIV among Spanish-born and immigrant women (P=.6). There is a gradual increase in HIV pregnant immigrants in Catalonia. Although most immigrant women were diagnosed during pregnancy, the rate of MTCT-HIV was no different from the Spanish-born women. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Factors contributing to academic achievement: a Bayesian structure equation modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payandeh Najafabadi, Amir T.; Omidi Najafabadi, Maryam; Farid-Rohani, Mohammad Reza

2013-06-01

In Iran, high school graduates enter university after taking a very difficult entrance exam called the Konkoor. Therefore, only the top-performing students are admitted by universities to continue their bachelor's education in statistics. Surprisingly, statistically, most of such students fall into the following categories: (1) do not succeed in their education despite their excellent performance on the Konkoor and in high school; (2) graduate with a grade point average (GPA) that is considerably lower than their high school GPA; (3) continue their master's education in majors other than statistics and (4) try to find jobs unrelated to statistics. This article employs the well-known and powerful statistical technique, the Bayesian structural equation modelling (SEM), to study the academic success of recent graduates who have studied statistics at Shahid Beheshti University in Iran. This research: (i) considered academic success as a latent variable, which was measured by GPA and other academic success (see below) of students in the target population; (ii) employed the Bayesian SEM, which works properly for small sample sizes and ordinal variables; (iii), which is taken from the literature, developed five main factors that affected academic success and (iv) considered several standard psychological tests and measured characteristics such as 'self-esteem' and 'anxiety'. We then study the impact of such factors on the academic success of the target population. Six factors that positively impact student academic success were identified in the following order of relative impact (from greatest to least): 'Teaching-Evaluation', 'Learner', 'Environment', 'Family', 'Curriculum' and 'Teaching Knowledge'. Particularly, influential variables within each factor have also been noted.

Spectral Analysis of B Stars: An Application of Bayesian Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mugnes, J.-M.; Robert, C.

2012-12-01

To better understand the processes involved in stellar physics, it is necessary to obtain accurate stellar parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, abundances…). Spectral analysis is a powerful tool for investigating stars, but it is also vital to reduce uncertainties at a decent computational cost. Here we present a spectral analysis method based on a combination of Bayesian statistics and grids of synthetic spectra obtained with TLUSTY. This method simultaneously constrains the stellar parameters by using all the lines accessible in observed spectra and thus greatly reduces uncertainties and improves the overall spectrum fitting. Preliminary results are shown using spectra from the Observatoire du Mont-Mégantic.

Suggestions for presenting the results of data analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, David R.; Link, William A.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

2001-01-01

We give suggestions for the presentation of research results from frequentist, information-theoretic, and Bayesian analysis paradigms, followed by several general suggestions. The information-theoretic and Bayesian methods offer alternative approaches to data analysis and inference compared to traditionally used methods. Guidance is lacking on the presentation of results under these alternative procedures and on nontesting aspects of classical frequentists methods of statistical analysis. Null hypothesis testing has come under intense criticism. We recommend less reporting of the results of statistical tests of null hypotheses in cases where the null is surely false anyway, or where the null hypothesis is of little interest to science or management.

Quantitative trait nucleotide analysis using Bayesian model selection.

PubMed

Blangero, John; Goring, Harald H H; Kent, Jack W; Williams, Jeff T; Peterson, Charles P; Almasy, Laura; Dyer, Thomas D

2005-10-01

Although much attention has been given to statistical genetic methods for the initial localization and fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs), little methodological work has been done to date on the problem of statistically identifying the most likely functional polymorphisms using sequence data. In this paper we provide a general statistical genetic framework, called Bayesian quantitative trait nucleotide (BQTN) analysis, for assessing the likely functional status of genetic variants. The approach requires the initial enumeration of all genetic variants in a set of resequenced individuals. These polymorphisms are then typed in a large number of individuals (potentially in families), and marker variation is related to quantitative phenotypic variation using Bayesian model selection and averaging. For each sequence variant a posterior probability of effect is obtained and can be used to prioritize additional molecular functional experiments. An example of this quantitative nucleotide analysis is provided using the GAW12 simulated data. The results show that the BQTN method may be useful for choosing the most likely functional variants within a gene (or set of genes). We also include instructions on how to use our computer program, SOLAR, for association analysis and BQTN analysis.

Toxicity of selected essential oils, silicone oils, and paraffino oil against the common bed bug, cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The common bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) resurged in the U.S. and many other countries over the past decade. The need for safe and effective bed bug control products propelled the development of numerous “green pesticides”, mostly with essential oils listed as active ingredients. Various inorganic ...

Moving Target Techniques: Leveraging Uncertainty for Cyber Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-24

vulnerability (a flaw or bug that an attacker can exploit to penetrate or disrupt a system) to successfully compromise systems. Defenders, however...device drivers, numerous software applications, and hardware components. Within the cyberspace, this imbalance between a simple, one- bug attack...parsing code itself could have security-relevant software bugs . Dynamic  Network   Techniques in the dynamic network domain change the properties

First report of seasonal trap capture for Halyomorpha halys (Stal) Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and native stink bugs in central Georgia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), an invasive insect pest in the United States, has recently expanded its range to the Coastal Plain region of Georgia. This study was conducted to monitor the BMSB, as well as native stink bugs, near woodland f...

Hot Topic: Brown marmorated stink bug odor compounds do not transfer into milk by feeding bug-contaminated corn silage to lactating dairy cattle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys, is an emerging invasive species of grave concern to agriculture as a polyphagous plant pest with potential negative impact on the dairy industry. We sought to determine the risk of including BMSB contaminated silage in lactating dairy cow ratio...

Verde plant bug associatioin with boll damage including cotton boll rot and potential in-season indicators of damage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton along the Gulf Coast of south Texas has experienced loss from cotton boll rot especially during the last 10 to 15 years, and stink bugs and plant bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae and Miridae) that feed on cotton bolls have been suspected in introducing the disease. A replicated grower field surv...

Verde plant bug is associated with cottong boll rot in South Texas cotton

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Verde plant bug was the dominant boll-feeding sucking bug species (>98% of insects collected using a beat bucket) from peak to late bloom in cotton fields near the coast along the Coastal Bend of South Texas, from Port Lavaca to the Lower Rio qrande Valley in 2010 and 2011. It was common in fields w...

Automatic detection and identification of brown stink bug, Euschistus servus, and southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula, (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) using intraspecific substrate-borne vibrational signals

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stink bugs cost the southeastern cotton industry millions of dollars each year in crop losses and control costs. These losses are reduced by strategic pesticide applications; however, current methods of monitoring these pests for making management decisions are time-consuming and costly. Therefore, ...

Initial evaluation of two native egg parasitoids for the control of Bagrada hilaris, an invasive stink bug in western USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bagrada bug, Bagrada hilaris (Hem.: Pentatomidae), is a major pest of cole crops (Brassicaceae). It was first reported in California in 2008 and has now spread to several U.S. states and Mexico. We studied host phylogeography by sequencing CO1 from 20 bagrada bug populations and determined that Pak...

Toxicity of indoxacarb to the tarnished plant bug, Lygus lineolaris (Hemiptera:Miridae), and the big-eyed bug, Geocoris punctipes (Hemiptera: Lygaeidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The toxicity of Steward, a formulation of indoxacarb, was studied for the tarnished plant bug [Lygus lineolaris (Palisot de Beauvois)], a pest of cotton, and the big-eyed insect [Geocoris punctipes (Say)], a predator of pests in cotton. Both insects responded similarly to Steward in topical, tarsal ...