Of Bits and Wows: A Bayesian Theory of Surprise with Applications to Attention
Baldi, Pierre; Itti, Laurent
2010-01-01
The amount of information contained in a piece of data can be measured by the effect this data has on its observer. Fundamentally, this effect is to transform the observer's prior beliefs into posterior beliefs, according to Bayes theorem. Thus the amount of information can be measured in a natural way by the distance (relative entropy) between the prior and posterior distributions of the observer over the available space of hypotheses. This facet of information, termed “surprise”, is important in dynamic situations where beliefs change, in particular during learning and adaptation. Surprise can often be computed analytically, for instance in the case of distributions from the exponential family, or it can be numerically approximated. During sequential Bayesian learning, surprise decreases like the inverse of the number of training examples. Theoretical properties of surprise are discussed, in particular how it differs and complements Shannon's definition of information. A computer vision neural network architecture is then presented capable of computing surprise over images and video stimuli. Hypothesizing that surprising data ought to attract natural or artificial attention systems, the output of this architecture is used in a psychophysical experiment to analyze human eye movements in the presence of natural video stimuli. Surprise is found to yield robust performance at predicting human gaze (ROC-like ordinal dominance score ∼ 0.7 compared to ∼ 0.8 for human inter-observer repeatability, ∼ 0.6 for simpler intensity contrast-based predictor, and 0.5 for chance). The resulting theory of surprise is applicable across different spatio-temporal scales, modalities, and levels of abstraction. PMID:20080025
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mundhenk, T. Nathan; Baron, Josh; Matic, Roy M.
2011-06-01
Passive millimeter wavelength (PMMW) video holds great promise given its ability to see targets and obstacles through fog, smoke and rain. However, current imagers produce undesirable complex noise. This can come as a mixture of fast shot (snow like) noise and a slower forming circular fixed pattern. Shot noise can be removed by a simple gain style filter. However, this can produce blurring of objects in the scene. To alleviate this, we measure the amount of Bayesian surprise in videos. Bayesian surprise is feature change in time which is abrupt, but cannot be accounted for as shot noise. Surprise is used to attenuate the shot noise filter in locations of high surprise. Since high Bayesian surprise in videos is very salient to observers, this reduces blurring particularly in places where people visually attend. Fixed pattern noise is removed after the shot noise using a combination of Non-uniformity correction (NUC) and Eigen Image Wavelet Transformation. The combination allows for online removal of time varying fixed pattern noise even when background motion may be absent. It also allows for online adaptation to differing intensities of fixed pattern noise. The fixed pattern and shot noise filters are all efficient allowing for real time video processing of PMMW video. We show several examples of PMMW video with complex noise that is much cleaner as a result of the noise removal. Processed video clearly shows cars, houses, trees and utility poles at 20 frames per second.
Surprise Calculator: Estimating relative entropy and Surprise between samples
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seehars, Sebastian
2016-05-01
The Surprise is a measure for consistency between posterior distributions and operates in parameter space. It can be used to analyze either the compatibility of separately analyzed posteriors from two datasets, or the posteriors from a Bayesian update. The Surprise Calculator estimates relative entropy and Surprise between two samples, assuming they are Gaussian. The software requires the R package CompQuadForm to estimate the significance of the Surprise, and rpy2 to interface R with Python.
Little, Anthony C
2014-11-01
Facial attractiveness has important social consequences. Despite a widespread belief that beauty cannot be defined, in fact, there is considerable agreement across individuals and cultures on what is found attractive. By considering that attraction and mate choice are critical components of evolutionary selection, we can better understand the importance of beauty. There are many traits that are linked to facial attractiveness in humans and each may in some way impart benefits to individuals who act on their preferences. If a trait is reliably associated with some benefit to the perceiver, then we would expect individuals in a population to find that trait attractive. Such an approach has highlighted face traits such as age, health, symmetry, and averageness, which are proposed to be associated with benefits and so associated with facial attractiveness. This view may postulate that some traits will be universally attractive; however, this does not preclude variation. Indeed, it would be surprising if there existed a template of a perfect face that was not affected by experience, environment, context, or the specific needs of an individual. Research on facial attractiveness has documented how various face traits are associated with attractiveness and various factors that impact on an individual's judgments of facial attractiveness. Overall, facial attractiveness is complex, both in the number of traits that determine attraction and in the large number of factors that can alter attraction to particular faces. A fuller understanding of facial beauty will come with an understanding of how these various factors interact with each other. WIREs Cogn Sci 2014, 5:621-634. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1316 CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The author has declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. PMID:26308869
Astronauts Cady Coleman and Paolo Nespoli perform the Pepper Oil Surprise experiment from Potlatch Elementary School in Potlatch, Idaho. This research investigates the interaction of liquid pepper/...
Barto, Andrew; Mirolli, Marco; Baldassarre, Gianluca
2013-01-01
Novelty and surprise play significant roles in animal behavior and in attempts to understand the neural mechanisms underlying it. They also play important roles in technology, where detecting observations that are novel or surprising is central to many applications, such as medical diagnosis, text processing, surveillance, and security. Theories of motivation, particularly of intrinsic motivation, place novelty and surprise among the primary factors that arouse interest, motivate exploratory or avoidance behavior, and drive learning. In many of these studies, novelty and surprise are not distinguished from one another: the words are used more-or-less interchangeably. However, while undeniably closely related, novelty and surprise are very different. The purpose of this article is first to highlight the differences between novelty and surprise and to discuss how they are related by presenting an extensive review of mathematical and computational proposals related to them, and then to explore the implications of this for understanding behavioral and neuroscience data. We argue that opportunities for improved understanding of behavior and its neural basis are likely being missed by failing to distinguish between novelty and surprise. PMID:24376428
Surprises in astrophysical gasdynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Balbus, Steven A.; Potter, William J.
2016-06-01
Much of astrophysics consists of the study of ionized gas under the influence of gravitational and magnetic fields. Thus, it is not possible to understand the astrophysical universe without a detailed knowledge of the dynamics of magnetized fluids. Fluid dynamics is, however, a notoriously tricky subject, in which it is all too easy for one’s a priori intuition to go astray. In this review, we seek to guide the reader through a series of illuminating yet deceptive problems, all with an enlightening twist. We cover a broad range of topics including the instabilities acting in accretion discs, the hydrodynamics governing the convective zone of the Sun, the magnetic shielding of a cooling galaxy cluster, and the behaviour of thermal instabilities and evaporating clouds. The aim of this review is to surprise and intrigue even veteran astrophysical theorists with an idiosyncratic choice of problems and counterintuitive results. At the same time, we endeavour to bring forth the fundamental ideas, to set out important assumptions, and to describe carefully whatever novel techniques may be appropriate to the problem at hand. By beginning at the beginning, and analysing a wide variety of astrophysical settings, we seek not only to make this review suitable for fluid dynamic veterans, but to engage novice recruits as well with what we hope will be an unusual and instructive introduction to the subject.
Surprises in astrophysical gasdynamics.
Balbus, Steven A; Potter, William J
2016-06-01
Much of astrophysics consists of the study of ionized gas under the influence of gravitational and magnetic fields. Thus, it is not possible to understand the astrophysical universe without a detailed knowledge of the dynamics of magnetized fluids. Fluid dynamics is, however, a notoriously tricky subject, in which it is all too easy for one's a priori intuition to go astray. In this review, we seek to guide the reader through a series of illuminating yet deceptive problems, all with an enlightening twist. We cover a broad range of topics including the instabilities acting in accretion discs, the hydrodynamics governing the convective zone of the Sun, the magnetic shielding of a cooling galaxy cluster, and the behaviour of thermal instabilities and evaporating clouds. The aim of this review is to surprise and intrigue even veteran astrophysical theorists with an idiosyncratic choice of problems and counterintuitive results. At the same time, we endeavour to bring forth the fundamental ideas, to set out important assumptions, and to describe carefully whatever novel techniques may be appropriate to the problem at hand. By beginning at the beginning, and analysing a wide variety of astrophysical settings, we seek not only to make this review suitable for fluid dynamic veterans, but to engage novice recruits as well with what we hope will be an unusual and instructive introduction to the subject. PMID:27116247
Surprises in astrophysical gasdynamics.
Balbus, Steven A; Potter, William J
2016-06-01
Much of astrophysics consists of the study of ionized gas under the influence of gravitational and magnetic fields. Thus, it is not possible to understand the astrophysical universe without a detailed knowledge of the dynamics of magnetized fluids. Fluid dynamics is, however, a notoriously tricky subject, in which it is all too easy for one's a priori intuition to go astray. In this review, we seek to guide the reader through a series of illuminating yet deceptive problems, all with an enlightening twist. We cover a broad range of topics including the instabilities acting in accretion discs, the hydrodynamics governing the convective zone of the Sun, the magnetic shielding of a cooling galaxy cluster, and the behaviour of thermal instabilities and evaporating clouds. The aim of this review is to surprise and intrigue even veteran astrophysical theorists with an idiosyncratic choice of problems and counterintuitive results. At the same time, we endeavour to bring forth the fundamental ideas, to set out important assumptions, and to describe carefully whatever novel techniques may be appropriate to the problem at hand. By beginning at the beginning, and analysing a wide variety of astrophysical settings, we seek not only to make this review suitable for fluid dynamic veterans, but to engage novice recruits as well with what we hope will be an unusual and instructive introduction to the subject.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lowman, Paul D., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
This paper suggests that a new "Sputnik surprise" in the form of a joint Chinese-Russian lunar base program may emerge in this decade. The Moon as a whole has been shown to be territory of strategic value, with discovery of large amounts of hydrogen (probably water ice) at the lunar poles and helium 3 everywhere in the soil, in addition to the Moon's scientific value as an object of study and as a platform for astronomy. There is thus good reason for a return to the Moon, robotically or manned. Relations between China and Russia have thawed since the mid-1990s, and the two countries have a formal space cooperation pact. It is argued here that a manned lunar program would be feasible within 5 years, using modern technology and proven spacecraft and launch vehicles. The combination of Russian lunar hardware with Chinese space technology would permit the two countries together to take the lead in solar system exploration in the 21st century.
A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…
Detecting communities using asymptotical surprise
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Traag, V. A.; Aldecoa, R.; Delvenne, J.-C.
2015-08-01
Nodes in real-world networks are repeatedly observed to form dense clusters, often referred to as communities. Methods to detect these groups of nodes usually maximize an objective function, which implicitly contains the definition of a community. We here analyze a recently proposed measure called surprise, which assesses the quality of the partition of a network into communities. In its current form, the formulation of surprise is rather difficult to analyze. We here therefore develop an accurate asymptotic approximation. This allows for the development of an efficient algorithm for optimizing surprise. Incidentally, this leads to a straightforward extension of surprise to weighted graphs. Additionally, the approximation makes it possible to analyze surprise more closely and compare it to other methods, especially modularity. We show that surprise is (nearly) unaffected by the well-known resolution limit, a particular problem for modularity. However, surprise may tend to overestimate the number of communities, whereas they may be underestimated by modularity. In short, surprise works well in the limit of many small communities, whereas modularity works better in the limit of few large communities. In this sense, surprise is more discriminative than modularity and may find communities where modularity fails to discern any structure.
A computational analysis of the neural bases of Bayesian inference.
Kolossa, Antonio; Kopp, Bruno; Fingscheidt, Tim
2015-02-01
Empirical support for the Bayesian brain hypothesis, although of major theoretical importance for cognitive neuroscience, is surprisingly scarce. This hypothesis posits simply that neural activities code and compute Bayesian probabilities. Here, we introduce an urn-ball paradigm to relate event-related potentials (ERPs) such as the P300 wave to Bayesian inference. Bayesian model comparison is conducted to compare various models in terms of their ability to explain trial-by-trial variation in ERP responses at different points in time and over different regions of the scalp. Specifically, we are interested in dissociating specific ERP responses in terms of Bayesian updating and predictive surprise. Bayesian updating refers to changes in probability distributions given new observations, while predictive surprise equals the surprise about observations under current probability distributions. Components of the late positive complex (P3a, P3b, Slow Wave) provide dissociable measures of Bayesian updating and predictive surprise. Specifically, the updating of beliefs about hidden states yields the best fit for the anteriorly distributed P3a, whereas the updating of predictions of observations accounts best for the posteriorly distributed Slow Wave. In addition, parietally distributed P3b responses are best fit by predictive surprise. These results indicate that the three components of the late positive complex reflect distinct neural computations. As such they are consistent with the Bayesian brain hypothesis, but these neural computations seem to be subject to nonlinear probability weighting. We integrate these findings with the free-energy principle that instantiates the Bayesian brain hypothesis.
Thornhill; Gangestad
1999-12-01
Humans in societies around the world discriminate between potential mates on the basis of attractiveness in ways that can dramatically affect their lives. From an evolutionary perspective, a reasonable working hypothesis is that the psychological mechanisms underlying attractiveness judgments are adaptations that have evolved in the service of choosing a mate so as to increase gene propagation throughout evolutionary history. The main hypothesis that has directed evolutionary psychology research into facial attractiveness is that these judgments reflect information about what can be broadly defined as an individual's health. This has been investigated by examining whether attractiveness judgments show special design for detecting cues that allow us to make assessments of overall phenotypic condition. This review examines the three major lines of research that have been pursued in order to answer the question of whether attractiveness reflects non-obvious indicators of phenotypic condition. These are studies that have examined facial symmetry, averageness, and secondary sex characteristics as hormone markers. PMID:10562724
BMDS: A Collection of R Functions for Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Okada, Kensuke; Shigemasu, Kazuo
2009-01-01
Bayesian multidimensional scaling (MDS) has attracted a great deal of attention because: (1) it provides a better fit than do classical MDS and ALSCAL; (2) it provides estimation errors of the distances; and (3) the Bayesian dimension selection criterion, MDSIC, provides a direct indication of optimal dimensionality. However, Bayesian MDS is not…
Bayesian Clinical Trials in Action
Lee, J. Jack; Chu, Caleb T.
2012-01-01
Although the frequentist paradigm has been the predominant approach to clinical trial design since the 1940s, it has several notable limitations. The alternative Bayesian paradigm has been greatly enhanced by advancements in computational algorithms and computer hardware. Compared to its frequentist counterpart, the Bayesian framework has several unique advantages, and its incorporation into clinical trial design is occurring more frequently. Using an extensive literature review to assess how Bayesian methods are used in clinical trials, we find them most commonly used for dose finding, efficacy monitoring, toxicity monitoring, diagnosis/decision making, and for studying pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics. The additional infrastructure required for implementing Bayesian methods in clinical trials may include specialized software programs to run the study design, simulation, and analysis, and Web-based applications, which are particularly useful for timely data entry and analysis. Trial success requires not only the development of proper tools but also timely and accurate execution of data entry, quality control, adaptive randomization, and Bayesian computation. The relative merit of the Bayesian and frequentist approaches continues to be the subject of debate in statistics. However, more evidence can be found showing the convergence of the two camps, at least at the practical level. Ultimately, better clinical trial methods lead to more efficient designs, lower sample sizes, more accurate conclusions, and better outcomes for patients enrolled in the trials. Bayesian methods offer attractive alternatives for better trials. More such trials should be designed and conducted to refine the approach and demonstrate its real benefit in action. PMID:22711340
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Movassagh, Ramis
2016-02-01
We prove that the complex conjugate (c.c.) eigenvalues of a smoothly varying real matrix attract (Eq. 15). We offer a dynamical perspective on the motion and interaction of the eigenvalues in the complex plane, derive their governing equations and discuss applications. C.c. pairs closest to the real axis, or those that are ill-conditioned, attract most strongly and can collide to become exactly real. As an application we consider random perturbations of a fixed matrix M. If M is Normal, the total expected force on any eigenvalue is shown to be only the attraction of its c.c. (Eq. 24) and when M is circulant the strength of interaction can be related to the power spectrum of white noise. We extend this by calculating the expected force (Eq. 41) for real stochastic processes with zero-mean and independent intervals. To quantify the dominance of the c.c. attraction, we calculate the variance of other forces. We apply the results to the Hatano-Nelson model and provide other numerical illustrations. It is our hope that the simple dynamical perspective herein might help better understanding of the aggregation and low density of the eigenvalues of real random matrices on and near the real line respectively. In the appendix we provide a Matlab code for plotting the trajectories of the eigenvalues.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oviatt, Eric; Patsiaouris, Konstantinos; Denardo, Bruce
2009-11-01
A sound source of finite size produces a diverging traveling wave in an unbounded fluid. A rigid body that is small compared to the wavelength experiences an attractive radiation force (toward the source). An attractive force is also exerted on the fluid itself. The effect can be demonstrated with a styrofoam ball suspended near a loudspeaker that is producing sound of high amplitude and low frequency (for example, 100 Hz). The behavior can be understood and roughly calculated as a time-averaged Bernoulli effect. A rigorous scattering calculation yields a radiation force that is within a factor of two of the Bernoulli result. For a spherical wave, the force decreases as the inverse fifth power of the distance from the source. Applications of the phenomenon include ultrasonic filtration of liquids and the growth of supermassive black holes that emit sound waves in a surrounding plasma. An experiment is being conducted in an anechoic chamber with a 1-inch diameter aluminum ball that is suspended from an analytical balance. Directly below the ball is a baffled loudspeaker that exerts an attractive force that is measured by the balance.
Burr, M.T.
1995-10-01
Brazil faces a need to expand electric generation capacity by 25 gigawatts (GW) through the year 2004. This means that about 10,350 MW plants need to be installed during each of the next eight years. The situation is particularly serious in the populous, industrialized south and southeastern regions. As a result, the new government is taking measures to attract private power developers and accelerate privatization. This progress is encouraging, but a number of fundamental issues must be addressed before IPPs can begin meeting the power demands. Stumbling blocks remain: regulatory hurdles, market imbalances, credit worthiness concerns and a history of political and economic volatility.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Denning, Peter J.
1989-01-01
In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.
Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mallmann, A. James
2016-01-01
In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are…
Probability and surprisal in auditory comprehension of morphologically complex words.
Balling, Laura Winther; Baayen, R Harald
2012-10-01
Two auditory lexical decision experiments document for morphologically complex words two points at which the probability of a target word given the evidence shifts dramatically. The first point is reached when morphologically unrelated competitors are no longer compatible with the evidence. Adapting terminology from Marslen-Wilson (1984), we refer to this as the word's initial uniqueness point (UP1). The second point is the complex uniqueness point (CUP) introduced by Balling and Baayen (2008), at which morphologically related competitors become incompatible with the input. Later initial as well as complex uniqueness points predict longer response latencies. We argue that the effects of these uniqueness points arise due to the large surprisal (Levy, 2008) carried by the phonemes at these uniqueness points, and provide independent evidence that how cumulative surprisal builds up in the course of the word co-determines response latencies. The presence of effects of surprisal, both at the initial uniqueness point of complex words, and cumulatively throughout the word, challenges the Shortlist B model of Norris and McQueen (2008), and suggests that a Bayesian approach to auditory comprehension requires complementation from information theory in order to do justice to the cognitive cost of updating probability distributions over lexical candidates.
Exploring the concept of climate surprise.
Streets, D. G.; Glantz, M. H.; Decision and Information Sciences; National Center for Atmospheric Research
2000-07-01
This paper examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although long-term, incremental changes in climate can have serious consequences, it is usually the extreme, surprising events that cause the most damage to human health and property. Different taxonomies of surprise are explored, drawing from literature concerning diverse aspects of human society. Surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept in many respects, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief systems, and media exposure. How policymakers have reacted to climate surprises in the past is considered, particularly with regard to choices made between pro-active and reactive measures. It is concluded that, while some kinds of surprise are truly unpredictable, there are other types that could be anticipated and their adverse effects forestalled.
Neural dynamics of prediction and surprise in infants.
Kouider, Sid; Long, Bria; Le Stanc, Lorna; Charron, Sylvain; Fievet, Anne-Caroline; Barbosa, Leonardo S; Gelskov, Sofie V
2015-01-01
Prior expectations shape neural responses in sensory regions of the brain, consistent with a Bayesian predictive coding account of perception. Yet, it remains unclear whether such a mechanism is already functional during early stages of development. To address this issue, we study how the infant brain responds to prediction violations using a cross-modal cueing paradigm. We record electroencephalographic responses to expected and unexpected visual events preceded by auditory cues in 12-month-old infants. We find an increased response for unexpected events. However, this effect of prediction error is only observed during late processing stages associated with conscious access mechanisms. In contrast, early perceptual components reveal an amplification of neural responses for predicted relative to surprising events, suggesting that selective attention enhances perceptual processing for expected events. Taken together, these results demonstrate that cross-modal statistical regularities are used to generate predictions that differentially influence early and late neural responses in infants. PMID:26460901
Neural dynamics of prediction and surprise in infants
Kouider, Sid; Long, Bria; Le Stanc, Lorna; Charron, Sylvain; Fievet, Anne-Caroline; Barbosa, Leonardo S.; Gelskov, Sofie V.
2015-01-01
Prior expectations shape neural responses in sensory regions of the brain, consistent with a Bayesian predictive coding account of perception. Yet, it remains unclear whether such a mechanism is already functional during early stages of development. To address this issue, we study how the infant brain responds to prediction violations using a cross-modal cueing paradigm. We record electroencephalographic responses to expected and unexpected visual events preceded by auditory cues in 12-month-old infants. We find an increased response for unexpected events. However, this effect of prediction error is only observed during late processing stages associated with conscious access mechanisms. In contrast, early perceptual components reveal an amplification of neural responses for predicted relative to surprising events, suggesting that selective attention enhances perceptual processing for expected events. Taken together, these results demonstrate that cross-modal statistical regularities are used to generate predictions that differentially influence early and late neural responses in infants. PMID:26460901
A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research
van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396
Evaluative Appraisals of Environmental Mystery and Surprise
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nasar, Jack L.; Cubukcu, Ebru
2011-01-01
This study used a desktop virtual environment (VE) of 15 large-scale residential streets to test the effects of environmental mystery and surprise on response. In theory, mystery and surprise should increase interest and visual appeal. For each VE, participants walked through an approach street and turned right onto a post-turn street. We designed…
Bayesian analysis of rare events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang
2016-06-01
In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.
Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.
Campbell, John O
2016-01-01
Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.
Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.
Campbell, John O
2016-01-01
Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature. PMID:27375438
Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mallmann, A. James
2016-04-01
In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are opportunities to expand beyond traditional presentations—and, in some cases, to achieve a deeper and broader understanding of those principles. I believe, moreover, that some of the facts presented here may inspire physics teachers to produce some challenge problems for students.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Isakson, Steve Wesley
2001-12-01
Well-known principles of physics explain why resolution restrictions occur in images produced by optical diffraction-limited systems. The limitations involved are present in all diffraction-limited imaging systems, including acoustical and microwave. In most circumstances, however, prior knowledge about the object and the imaging system can lead to resolution improvements. In this dissertation I outline a method to incorporate prior information into the process of reconstructing images to superresolve the object beyond the above limitations. This dissertation research develops the details of this methodology. The approach can provide the most-probable global solution employing a finite number of steps in both far-field and near-field images. In addition, in order to overcome the effects of noise present in any imaging system, this technique provides a weighted image that quantifies the likelihood of various imaging solutions. By utilizing Bayesian probability, the procedure is capable of incorporating prior information about both the object and the noise to overcome the resolution limitation present in many imaging systems. Finally I will present an imaging system capable of detecting the evanescent waves missing from far-field systems, thus improving the resolution further.
Building classifiers using Bayesian networks
Friedman, N.; Goldszmidt, M.
1996-12-31
Recent work in supervised learning has shown that a surprisingly simple Bayesian classifier with strong assumptions of independence among features, called naive Bayes, is competitive with state of the art classifiers such as C4.5. This fact raises the question of whether a classifier with less restrictive assumptions can perform even better. In this paper we examine and evaluate approaches for inducing classifiers from data, based on recent results in the theory of learning Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks are factored representations of probability distributions that generalize the naive Bayes classifier and explicitly represent statements about independence. Among these approaches we single out a method we call Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN), which outperforms naive Bayes, yet at the same time maintains the computational simplicity (no search involved) and robustness which are characteristic of naive Bayes. We experimentally tested these approaches using benchmark problems from the U. C. Irvine repository, and compared them against C4.5, naive Bayes, and wrapper-based feature selection methods.
A toolkit for detecting technical surprise.
Trahan, Michael Wayne; Foehse, Mark C.
2010-10-01
The detection of a scientific or technological surprise within a secretive country or institute is very difficult. The ability to detect such surprises would allow analysts to identify the capabilities that could be a military or economic threat to national security. Sandia's current approach utilizing ThreatView has been successful in revealing potential technological surprises. However, as data sets become larger, it becomes critical to use algorithms as filters along with the visualization environments. Our two-year LDRD had two primary goals. First, we developed a tool, a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), to extend ThreatView and improve our understanding of the issues involved in working with textual data sets. Second, we developed a toolkit for detecting indicators of technical surprise in textual data sets. Our toolkit has been successfully used to perform technology assessments for the Science & Technology Intelligence (S&TI) program.
An Ordinary but Surprisingly Powerful Theorem
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sultan, Alan
2009-01-01
Being a mathematician, the author started to wonder if there are any theorems in mathematics that seem very ordinary on the outside, but when applied, have surprisingly far reaching consequences. The author thought about this and came up with the following unlikely candidate which follows immediately from the definition of the area of a rectangle…
Some Surprising Errors in Numerical Differentiation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gordon, Sheldon P.
2012-01-01
Data analysis methods, both numerical and visual, are used to discover a variety of surprising patterns in the errors associated with successive approximations to the derivatives of sinusoidal and exponential functions based on the Newton difference-quotient. L'Hopital's rule and Taylor polynomial approximations are then used to explain why these…
Surprising Connections between Partitions and Divisors
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Osler, Thomas J.; Hassen, Abdulkadir; Chandrupatla, Tirupathi R.
2007-01-01
The sum of the divisors of a positive integer is one of the most interesting concepts in multiplicative number theory, while the number of ways of expressing a number as a sum is a primary topic in additive number theory. In this article, we describe some of the surprising connections between and similarities of these two concepts.
Expect Surprises with 1-to-1 Laptops
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tusch, Erich G.
2012-01-01
The prospect of radically changing teaching and learning by issuing a laptop computer to every student and teacher is an exciting one, but it carried big risks and would take time and thorough planning to execute well. But even thorough planning can't prevent the unanticipated. In this article, the author counts six major surprises during his time…
Radar Design to Protect Against Surprise.
Doerry, Armin W.
2015-02-01
Technological and doctrinal surprise is about rendering preparations for conflict as irrelevant or ineffective . For a sensor, this means essentially rendering the sensor as irrelevant or ineffective in its ability to help determine truth. Recovery from this sort of surprise is facilitated by flexibility in our own technology and doctrine. For a sensor, this mean s flexibility in its architecture, design, tactics, and the designing organizations ' processes. - 4 - Acknowledgements This report is the result of a n unfunded research and development activity . Sandia National Laboratories is a multi - program laboratory manage d and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE - AC04 - 94AL85000.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David
2014-02-01
Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David
2009-12-01
Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.
Pupil size tracks perceptual content and surprise.
Kloosterman, Niels A; Meindertsma, Thomas; van Loon, Anouk M; Lamme, Victor A F; Bonneh, Yoram S; Donner, Tobias H
2015-04-01
Changes in pupil size at constant light levels reflect the activity of neuromodulatory brainstem centers that control global brain state. These endogenously driven pupil dynamics can be synchronized with cognitive acts. For example, the pupil dilates during the spontaneous switches of perception of a constant sensory input in bistable perceptual illusions. It is unknown whether this pupil dilation only indicates the occurrence of perceptual switches, or also their content. Here, we measured pupil diameter in human subjects reporting the subjective disappearance and re-appearance of a physically constant visual target surrounded by a moving pattern ('motion-induced blindness' illusion). We show that the pupil dilates during the perceptual switches in the illusion and a stimulus-evoked 'replay' of that illusion. Critically, the switch-related pupil dilation encodes perceptual content, with larger amplitude for disappearance than re-appearance. This difference in pupil response amplitude enables prediction of the type of report (disappearance vs. re-appearance) on individual switches (receiver-operating characteristic: 61%). The amplitude difference is independent of the relative durations of target-visible and target-invisible intervals and subjects' overt behavioral report of the perceptual switches. Further, we show that pupil dilation during the replay also scales with the level of surprise about the timing of switches, but there is no evidence for an interaction between the effects of surprise and perceptual content on the pupil response. Taken together, our results suggest that pupil-linked brain systems track both the content of, and surprise about, perceptual events. PMID:25754528
Do cosmetics enhance female Caucasian facial attractiveness?
Mulhern, R; Fieldman, G; Hussey, T; Lévêque, J-L; Pineau, P
2003-08-01
This study sought to investigate whether cosmetics do improve female facial attractiveness, and to determine whether the contribution of different cosmetic products are separable, or whether they function synergistically to enhance female beauty. Ten volunteers were made up by a beautician under five cosmetics conditions: (i) no make-up; (ii) foundation only; (iii) eye make-up only; (iv) lip make-up only; and (v) full facial make-up. Male and female participants were asked to view the 10 sets of five photographs, and rank each set from most attractive to least attractive. As predicted, faces with full make-up were judged more attractive than the same faces with no make-up. Sex differences within the results were also apparent. Women judged eye make-up as contributing most to the attractiveness. Men rated eye make-up and foundation as having a significant impact on the attractiveness of a full facial makeover. Surprisingly, lipstick did not appear to contribute to attractiveness independently.
Do cosmetics enhance female Caucasian facial attractiveness?
Mulhern, R; Fieldman, G; Hussey, T; Lévêque, J-L; Pineau, P
2003-08-01
This study sought to investigate whether cosmetics do improve female facial attractiveness, and to determine whether the contribution of different cosmetic products are separable, or whether they function synergistically to enhance female beauty. Ten volunteers were made up by a beautician under five cosmetics conditions: (i) no make-up; (ii) foundation only; (iii) eye make-up only; (iv) lip make-up only; and (v) full facial make-up. Male and female participants were asked to view the 10 sets of five photographs, and rank each set from most attractive to least attractive. As predicted, faces with full make-up were judged more attractive than the same faces with no make-up. Sex differences within the results were also apparent. Women judged eye make-up as contributing most to the attractiveness. Men rated eye make-up and foundation as having a significant impact on the attractiveness of a full facial makeover. Surprisingly, lipstick did not appear to contribute to attractiveness independently. PMID:18494902
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…
The alkali metals: 200 years of surprises.
Dye, James L
2015-03-13
Alkali metal compounds have been known since antiquity. In 1807, Sir Humphry Davy surprised everyone by electrolytically preparing (and naming) potassium and sodium metals. In 1808, he noted their interaction with ammonia, which, 100 years later, was attributed to solvated electrons. After 1960, pulse radiolysis of nearly any solvent produced solvated electrons, which became one of the most studied species in chemistry. In 1968, alkali metal solutions in amines and ethers were shown to contain alkali metal anions in addition to solvated electrons. The advent of crown ethers and cryptands as complexants for alkali cations greatly enhanced alkali metal solubilities. This permitted us to prepare a crystalline salt of Na(-) in 1974, followed by 30 other alkalides with Na(-), K(-), Rb(-) and Cs(-) anions. This firmly established the -1 oxidation state of alkali metals. The synthesis of alkalides led to the crystallization of electrides, with trapped electrons as the anions. Electrides have a variety of electronic and magnetic properties, depending on the geometries and connectivities of the trapping sites. In 2009, the final surprise was the experimental demonstration that alkali metals under high pressure lose their metallic character as the electrons are localized in voids between the alkali cations to become high-pressure electrides!
The alkali metals: 200 years of surprises.
Dye, James L
2015-03-13
Alkali metal compounds have been known since antiquity. In 1807, Sir Humphry Davy surprised everyone by electrolytically preparing (and naming) potassium and sodium metals. In 1808, he noted their interaction with ammonia, which, 100 years later, was attributed to solvated electrons. After 1960, pulse radiolysis of nearly any solvent produced solvated electrons, which became one of the most studied species in chemistry. In 1968, alkali metal solutions in amines and ethers were shown to contain alkali metal anions in addition to solvated electrons. The advent of crown ethers and cryptands as complexants for alkali cations greatly enhanced alkali metal solubilities. This permitted us to prepare a crystalline salt of Na(-) in 1974, followed by 30 other alkalides with Na(-), K(-), Rb(-) and Cs(-) anions. This firmly established the -1 oxidation state of alkali metals. The synthesis of alkalides led to the crystallization of electrides, with trapped electrons as the anions. Electrides have a variety of electronic and magnetic properties, depending on the geometries and connectivities of the trapping sites. In 2009, the final surprise was the experimental demonstration that alkali metals under high pressure lose their metallic character as the electrons are localized in voids between the alkali cations to become high-pressure electrides! PMID:25666067
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.
Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin
2016-01-01
The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.
Stroke Recovery: Surprising Influences and Residual Consequences
Hillis, Argye E.; Tippett, Donna C.
2014-01-01
There is startling individual variability in the degree to which people recover from stroke and the duration of time over which recovery of some symptoms occurs. There are a variety of mechanisms of recovery from stroke which take place at distinct time points after stroke and are influenced by different variables. We review recent studies from our laboratory that unveil some surprising findings, such as the role of education in chronic recovery. We also report data showing that the consequences that most plague survivors of stroke and their caregivers are loss of high level cortical functions, such as empathy or written language. These results have implications for rehabilitation and management of stroke. PMID:25844378
TREATMENT EFFECTS: A BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE*
Heckman, James J.; Lopes, Hedibert F.; Piatek, Rémi
2013-01-01
This paper contributes to the emerging Bayesian literature on treatment effects. It derives treatment parameters in the framework of a potential outcomes model with a treatment choice equation, where the correlation between the unobservable components of the model is driven by a low-dimensional vector of latent factors. The analyst is assumed to have access to a set of measurements generated by the latent factors. This approach has attractive features from both theoretical and practical points of view. Not only does it address the fundamental identification problem arising from the inability to observe the same person in both the treated and untreated states, but it also turns out to be straightforward to implement. Formulae are provided to compute mean treatment effects as well as their distributional versions. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to illustrate how the methodology can easily be applied. PMID:24187431
Surprises and mysteries in urban soils
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Groffman, P. M.
2015-12-01
In the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, one of two urban long-term ecological research (LTER) projects funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, we are using "the watershed approach" to integrate ecological, physical and social sciences. Urban and suburban watershed input/output budgets for nitrogen have shown surprisingly high retention which has led to detailed analysis of sources and sinks in soils these watersheds. Home lawns, thought to be major sources of reactive nitrogen in suburban watersheds, have more complex coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics than previously thought, and are likely the site of much nitrogen retention. Riparian zones, thought to be an important sink for reactive nitrogen in many watersheds, have turned out be nitrogen sources in urban watersheds due to hydrologic changes that disconnect streams from their surrounding landscape. Urban effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and nitrogen deposition have strong effects on soil nitrogen cycling processes and soil:atmosphere fluxes of nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane. Efforts to manage urban soils and watersheds through geomorphic stream restoration, creation of stormwater management features and changes in lawn and forest management can have significant effects on watershed carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Urban soils present a basic and applied science frontier that challenges our understanding of biological, physical, chemical and social science processes. The watershed approach provides an effective platform for integrating these disciplines and for articulating critical questions that arise from surprising results. This approach can help us to meet the challenge of urban soils, which is critical to achieving sustainability goals in cities across the world.
Assertiveness and Physical Attractiveness.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kleim, David M.; And Others
Earlier research investigating the relationship between physical attractiveness and assertiveness found that physically attractive females were more assertive than other females. To investigate this relationship further and to broaden the scope of the study, 69 students were videotaped in groups of five to ten while responding to open-ended…
Intelligence and Physical Attractiveness
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kanazawa, Satoshi
2011-01-01
This brief research note aims to estimate the magnitude of the association between general intelligence and physical attractiveness with large nationally representative samples from two nations. In the United Kingdom, attractive children are more intelligent by 12.4 IQ points (r=0.381), whereas in the United States, the correlation between…
Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data
Lau, Nelson; Perkins, Theodore J.
2016-01-01
Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities’ measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low—especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities’ signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset. PMID:27701449
The conceptualization model problem—surprise
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bredehoeft, John
2005-03-01
The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.
2016-03-01
In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.
ISS GN and C - First Year Surprises
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Begley, Michael
2002-01-01
Assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) began in late 1998 with the joining of the first two US and Russ ian elements. For more than two years, the outpost was served by two Russian Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) systems. The station requires orbital translation and attitude control functions for its 100+ configurations, from the nascent two-module station to the half million kilogram completed station owned and operated by seventeen nations. With the launch of the US Laboratory module in February 2001, the integration of the US GN&C system with its Russian counterpart laid the foundation for such a robust system. In its first year of combined operation, the ISS GN&C system has performed admirably, even better than many expected, but there have been surprises. Loss of command capability, loss of communication between segments, a control system force-fight, and "non-propulsive vents" that weren't - such events have repeatedly underscored the importance of thorough program integration, testing, and operation, both across subsystem boundaries and across international borders.
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.
2014-05-01
Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.
Physical Attractiveness and Courtship
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Silverman, Irwin
1971-01-01
This study shows a high and disquieting degree of similarity in physical attractiveness between dating partners, and suggests also that more similar partners tend to form stronger romantic attachments. (Author)
Adolescent attraction to cults.
Hunter, E
1998-01-01
This article details the reasons behind adolescents' attraction to cults. It is recommended that parents, teachers, and counselors familiarize themselves with the warning signs. Suggestions are offered on how to make adolescents less vulnerable to cult overtures. PMID:9831888
Attention Alters Perceived Attractiveness.
Störmer, Viola S; Alvarez, George A
2016-04-01
Can attention alter the impression of a face? Previous studies showed that attention modulates the appearance of lower-level visual features. For instance, attention can make a simple stimulus appear to have higher contrast than it actually does. We tested whether attention can also alter the perception of a higher-order property-namely, facial attractiveness. We asked participants to judge the relative attractiveness of two faces after summoning their attention to one of the faces using a briefly presented visual cue. Across trials, participants judged the attended face to be more attractive than the same face when it was unattended. This effect was not due to decision or response biases, but rather was due to changes in perceptual processing of the faces. These results show that attention alters perceived facial attractiveness, and broadly demonstrate that attention can influence higher-level perception and may affect people's initial impressions of one another. PMID:26966228
Astronauts Cady Coleman and Ron Garan perform the Attracting Water Drops experiment from Chabad Hebrew Academy in San Diego, Calif. This research determines if a free-floating water drop can be att...
Surprise as an Interactional Achievement: Reaction Tokens in Conversation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wilkinson, Sue; Kitzinger, Celia
2006-01-01
The expression of surprise--at something unexpected--is a key form of emotional display. Focusing on displays of surprise performed by means of reaction tokens (akin to Goffman's "response cries"), such as "wow, gosh, oh my god, ooh!, phew," we use an ethnomethodological, conversation-analytic approach to analyze surprise in talk-in-interaction.…
Mining for Surprise Events within Text Streams
Whitney, Paul D.; Engel, David W.; Cramer, Nicholas O.
2009-04-30
This paper summarizes algorithms and analysis methodology for mining the evolving content in text streams. Text streams include news, press releases from organizations, speeches, Internet blogs, etc. These data are a fundamental source for detecting and characterizing strategic intent of individuals and organizations as well as for detecting abrupt or surprising events within communities. Specifically, an analyst may need to know if and when the topic within a text stream changes. Much of the current text feature methodology is focused on understanding and analyzing a single static collection of text documents. Corresponding analytic activities include summarizing the contents of the collection, grouping the documents based on similarity of content, and calculating concise summaries of the resulting groups. The approach reported here focuses on taking advantage of the temporal characteristics in a text stream to identify relevant features (such as change in content), and also on the analysis and algorithmic methodology to communicate these characteristics to a user. We present a variety of algorithms for detecting essential features within a text stream. A critical finding is that the characteristics used to identify features in a text stream are uncorrelated with the characteristics used to identify features in a static document collection. Our approach for communicating the information back to the user is to identify feature (word/phrase) groups. These resulting algorithms form the basis of developing software tools for a user to analyze and understand the content of text streams. We present analysis using both news information and abstracts from technical articles, and show how these algorithms provide understanding of the contents of these text streams.
Bayesian estimation of the shape skeleton.
Feldman, Jacob; Singh, Manish
2006-11-21
Skeletal representations of shape have attracted enormous interest ever since their introduction by Blum [Blum H (1973) J Theor Biol 38:205-287], because of their potential to provide a compact, but meaningful, shape representation, suitable for both neural modeling and computational applications. But effective computation of the shape skeleton remains a notorious unsolved problem; existing approaches are extremely sensitive to noise and give counterintuitive results with simple shapes. In conventional approaches, the skeleton is defined by a geometric construction and computed by a deterministic procedure. We introduce a Bayesian probabilistic approach, in which a shape is assumed to have "grown" from a skeleton by a stochastic generative process. Bayesian estimation is used to identify the skeleton most likely to have produced the shape, i.e., that best "explains" it, called the maximum a posteriori skeleton. Even with natural shapes with substantial contour noise, this approach provides a robust skeletal representation whose branches correspond to the natural parts of the shape.
A Shocking Surprise in Stephan's Quintet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2006-01-01
surprised not only by the turbulence of the gas, but by the incredible strength of the emission. The reason the molecular hydrogen emission is so powerful is not yet completely understood.
Stephan's Quintet is located 300 million light-years away in the Pegasus constellation.
This image is composed of three data sets: near-infrared light (blue) and visible light called H-alpha (green) from the Calar Alto Observatory in Spain, operated by the Max Planck Institute in Germany; and 8-micron infrared light (red) from Spitzer's infrared array camera.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Borg, Anne; Sui, Manling
2013-03-01
Large regional differences remain in the number of girls studying physics and the number of female physicists in academic positions. While many countries struggle with attracting female students to university studies in physics, climbing the academic ladder is the main challenge for these women. Furthermore, for many female physicists the working climate is not very supportive. The workshop Attracting Girls to Physics, organized as part of the 4th IUPAP International Conference on Women in Physics, South Africa 2011, addressed attitudes among education-seeking teenagers and approaches for attracting young girls to physics through successful recruitment plans, including highlighting the broad spectrum of career opportunities for those with physics qualifications. The current paper presents findings, examples of best practices, and recommendations resulting from this workshop.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sandow, Barbara; Marks, Ann; Borg, Anne
2009-04-01
In most countries the number of girls studying physics, as well female physicists in academic positions, is still low. Active recruitment at all levels is essential to change this situation. In some countries a large proportion of students are female, but career progression is difficult. Highlighting the broad spectrum of career opportunities for those with physics qualifications is a major approach in attracting girls to physics. This paper presents findings, examples of best practices, and recommendations resulting from the workshop, Attracting Girls to Physics, organized as part of the Third IUPAP International Conference on Women in Physics, Seoul, 2008.
Bayesian methods in reliability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sander, P.; Badoux, R.
1991-11-01
The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.
BIE: Bayesian Inference Engine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weinberg, Martin D.
2013-12-01
The Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) is an object-oriented library of tools written in C++ designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. To facilitate "what if" exploration, BIE provides a command line interface (written with Bison and Flex) to run input scripts. The output of the code is a simulation of the Bayesian posterior distribution from which summary statistics e.g. by taking moments, or determine confidence intervals and so forth, can be determined. All of these quantities are fundamentally integrals and the Markov Chain approach produces variates heta distributed according to P( heta|D) so moments are trivially obtained by summing of the ensemble of variates.
Bayesian least squares deconvolution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asensio Ramos, A.; Petit, P.
2015-11-01
Aims: We develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods: We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results: We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Leyden, Michael B.
1994-01-01
Discusses the properties of neodymium magnets and magnets in general and how magnets can be used to teach students important scientific principles, such as attraction, repulsion, and polarity; the role of magnetic forces in electronic communications and computers; the magnetic properties of the earth and compasses; and the relationship between…
Adolescent Attraction to Cults.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hunter, Eagan
1998-01-01
Details the reasons behind adolescents' attraction to cults. and distinguishes functions of cults and the term "cult." Identifies various cults, and describes the process of involvement. Notes that in the absence of authentic, stabilizing standards, some youth are especially vulnerable. Provides recommendations for adults working with adolescents.…
Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517
Oldest Known Objects May Be Surprisingly Immature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2008-04-01
Some of the oldest objects in the Universe may still have a long way to go, according to a new study using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory. These new results indicate that globular clusters might be surprisingly less mature in their development than previously thought. Globular clusters, dense bunches of up to millions of stars found in all galaxies, are among the oldest known objects in the Universe, with most estimates of their ages ranging from 9 to 13 billions of years old. As such they contain some of the first stars to form in a galaxy and understanding their evolution is critical to understanding the evolution of galaxies. Animation The Evolution of a Globular Cluster "For many years, globular clusters have been used as wonderful natural laboratories to study the evolution and interaction of stars," said John Fregeau of Northwestern University, who conducted the study. "So, it’s exciting to discover something that may be new and fundamental about the way they evolve." Conventional wisdom is that globular clusters pass through three phases of evolution or development of their structure, corresponding to adolescence, middle age, and old age. These "ages" refer to the evolutionary state of the cluster, not the physical ages of the individual stars. People Who Read This Also Read... Milky Way's Super-efficient Particle Accelerators Caught in The Act Discovery of Most Recent Supernova in Our Galaxy Action Replay of Powerful Stellar Explosion Jet Power and Black Hole Assortment Revealed in New Chandra Image In the adolescent phase, the stars near the center of the cluster collapse inward. Middle age refers to a phase when the interactions of double stars near the center of the cluster prevents it from further collapse. Finally, old age describes when binaries in the center of the cluster are disrupted or ejected, and the center of the cluster collapses inwards. For years, it has been thought that most globular clusters are middle- aged with a few being toward
Old Star's "Rebirth" Gives Astronomers Surprises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2005-04-01
Astronomers using the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope are taking advantage of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to watch an old star suddenly stir back into new activity after coming to the end of its normal life. Their surprising results have forced them to change their ideas of how such an old, white dwarf star can re-ignite its nuclear furnace for one final blast of energy. Sakurai's Object Radio/Optical Images of Sakurai's Object: Color image shows nebula ejected thousands of years ago. Contours indicate radio emission. Inset is Hubble Space Telescope image, with contours indicating radio emission; this inset shows just the central part of the region. CREDIT: Hajduk et al., NRAO/AUI/NSF, ESO, StSci, NASA Computer simulations had predicted a series of events that would follow such a re-ignition of fusion reactions, but the star didn't follow the script -- events moved 100 times more quickly than the simulations predicted. "We've now produced a new theoretical model of how this process works, and the VLA observations have provided the first evidence supporting our new model," said Albert Zijlstra, of the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom. Zijlstra and his colleagues presented their findings in the April 8 issue of the journal Science. The astronomers studied a star known as V4334 Sgr, in the constellation Sagittarius. It is better known as "Sakurai's Object," after Japanese amateur astronomer Yukio Sakurai, who discovered it on February 20, 1996, when it suddenly burst into new brightness. At first, astronomers thought the outburst was a common nova explosion, but further study showed that Sakurai's Object was anything but common. The star is an old white dwarf that had run out of hydrogen fuel for nuclear fusion reactions in its core. Astronomers believe that some such stars can undergo a final burst of fusion in a shell of helium that surrounds a core of heavier nuclei such as carbon and oxygen. However, the
Oldest Known Objects May Be Surprisingly Immature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2008-04-01
Some of the oldest objects in the Universe may still have a long way to go, according to a new study using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory. These new results indicate that globular clusters might be surprisingly less mature in their development than previously thought. Globular clusters, dense bunches of up to millions of stars found in all galaxies, are among the oldest known objects in the Universe, with most estimates of their ages ranging from 9 to 13 billions of years old. As such they contain some of the first stars to form in a galaxy and understanding their evolution is critical to understanding the evolution of galaxies. Animation The Evolution of a Globular Cluster "For many years, globular clusters have been used as wonderful natural laboratories to study the evolution and interaction of stars," said John Fregeau of Northwestern University, who conducted the study. "So, it’s exciting to discover something that may be new and fundamental about the way they evolve." Conventional wisdom is that globular clusters pass through three phases of evolution or development of their structure, corresponding to adolescence, middle age, and old age. These "ages" refer to the evolutionary state of the cluster, not the physical ages of the individual stars. People Who Read This Also Read... Milky Way's Super-efficient Particle Accelerators Caught in The Act Discovery of Most Recent Supernova in Our Galaxy Action Replay of Powerful Stellar Explosion Jet Power and Black Hole Assortment Revealed in New Chandra Image In the adolescent phase, the stars near the center of the cluster collapse inward. Middle age refers to a phase when the interactions of double stars near the center of the cluster prevents it from further collapse. Finally, old age describes when binaries in the center of the cluster are disrupted or ejected, and the center of the cluster collapses inwards. For years, it has been thought that most globular clusters are middle- aged with a few being toward
Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise.
Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz
2015-01-01
The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for this switch in operating mode. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by surprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low surprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect) and frontalis (cultural surprise expression) activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes.
Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise
Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz
2015-01-01
The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for this switch in operating mode. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by surprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low surprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect) and frontalis (cultural surprise expression) activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes. PMID:25762956
Dissociating Averageness and Attractiveness: Attractive Faces Are Not Always Average
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
DeBruine, Lisa M.; Jones, Benedict C.; Unger, Layla; Little, Anthony C.; Feinberg, David R.
2007-01-01
Although the averageness hypothesis of facial attractiveness proposes that the attractiveness of faces is mostly a consequence of their averageness, 1 study has shown that caricaturing highly attractive faces makes them mathematically less average but more attractive. Here the authors systematically test the averageness hypothesis in 5 experiments…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gustafson, S. C.; Costello, C. S.; Like, E. C.; Pierce, S. J.; Shenoy, K. N.
2009-01-01
Bayesian estimation of a threshold time (hereafter simply threshold) for the receipt of impulse signals is accomplished given the following: 1) data, consisting of the number of impulses received in a time interval from zero to one and the time of the largest time impulse; 2) a model, consisting of a uniform probability density of impulse time…
Spectral Bayesian Knowledge Tracing
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Falakmasir, Mohammad; Yudelson, Michael; Ritter, Steve; Koedinger, Ken
2015-01-01
Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) has been in wide use for modeling student skill acquisition in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). BKT tracks and updates student's latent mastery of a skill as a probability distribution of a binary variable. BKT does so by accounting for observed student successes in applying the skill correctly, where success is…
The neurobiology of attraction.
Marazziti, D; Cassano, G B
2003-01-01
In these last years, emotions and feelings, such as attachment, couple and parental bonding and even love, typical of higher mammals, neglected for centuries by experimental sciences, have become the topic of extensive neuroscientific research in order to elucidate their biological mechanisms. Several observations have highlighted the role of monoamines and of neuropeptides, in particular oxytocin, vasopressin and opioids, but this is only the beginning of the story. Love, the most typical human feeling, can be viewed as a dynamic process that represents the result of different components probably subserved by distinct neural substrates at different times. As such, some steps can be identified, in particular its beginning, which is the process of attraction, followed by the attachment process that, in some cases, can last forever. This paper will make some general speculations on the attraction process, in the light of the experience of the Authors. PMID:12834023
The Orion Nebula: Still Full of Surprises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2011-01-01
shows the glowing hydrogen gas, were coloured red. Light in the yellow-green part of the spectrum is coloured green, blue light is coloured blue and light that passed through an ultraviolet filter has been coloured purple. The exposure times were about 52 minutes through each filter. This image was processed by ESO using the observational data found by Igor Chekalin (Russia) [1], who participated in ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 astrophotography competition [2], organised by ESO in October-November 2010, for everyone who enjoys making beautiful images of the night sky using real astronomical data. Notes [1] Igor searched through ESO's archive and identified datasets that he used to compose his image of Messier 42, which was the seventh highest ranked entry in the competition, out of almost 100 entries. His original work can be seen here. Igor Chekalin was awarded the first prize of the competition for his composition of Messier 78, and he also submitted an image of NGC3169, NGC3166 and SN 2003cg, which was ranked second highest. [2] ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 competition gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search through ESO's vast archives of astronomical data, hoping to find a well-hidden gem that needed polishing by the entrants. Participants submitted nearly 100 entries and ten skilled people were awarded some extremely attractive prizes, including an all expenses paid trip for the overall winner to ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) on Cerro Paranal, in Chile, the world's most advanced optical telescope. The ten winners submitted a total of 20 images that were ranked as the highest entries in the competition out of the near 100 images. More information ESO, the European Southern Observatory, is the foremost intergovernmental astronomy organisation in Europe and the world's most productive astronomical observatory. It is supported by 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal
The Orion Nebula: Still Full of Surprises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2011-01-01
shows the glowing hydrogen gas, were coloured red. Light in the yellow-green part of the spectrum is coloured green, blue light is coloured blue and light that passed through an ultraviolet filter has been coloured purple. The exposure times were about 52 minutes through each filter. This image was processed by ESO using the observational data found by Igor Chekalin (Russia) [1], who participated in ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 astrophotography competition [2], organised by ESO in October-November 2010, for everyone who enjoys making beautiful images of the night sky using real astronomical data. Notes [1] Igor searched through ESO's archive and identified datasets that he used to compose his image of Messier 42, which was the seventh highest ranked entry in the competition, out of almost 100 entries. His original work can be seen here. Igor Chekalin was awarded the first prize of the competition for his composition of Messier 78, and he also submitted an image of NGC3169, NGC3166 and SN 2003cg, which was ranked second highest. [2] ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 competition gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search through ESO's vast archives of astronomical data, hoping to find a well-hidden gem that needed polishing by the entrants. Participants submitted nearly 100 entries and ten skilled people were awarded some extremely attractive prizes, including an all expenses paid trip for the overall winner to ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) on Cerro Paranal, in Chile, the world's most advanced optical telescope. The ten winners submitted a total of 20 images that were ranked as the highest entries in the competition out of the near 100 images. More information ESO, the European Southern Observatory, is the foremost intergovernmental astronomy organisation in Europe and the world's most productive astronomical observatory. It is supported by 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal
Surprise and Sense Making: Undergraduate Placement Experiences in SMEs
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Walmsley, Andreas; Thomas, Rhodri; Jameson, Stephanie
2006-01-01
Purpose: This paper seeks to explore undergraduate placement experiences in tourism and hospitality SMEs, focusing on the notions of surprise and sense making. It aims to argue that surprises and sense making are important elements not only of the adjustment process when entering new work environments, but also of the learning experience that…
Surprise in Schools: Martin Buber and Dialogic Schooling
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stern, Julian
2013-01-01
The philosopher Martin Buber described the central role of surprise in education. Surprise is not an alternative to planning and order in schools, and it is not even an alternative to repetitive practice. It is, instead, that which must be allowed to occur in any dialogic encounter. Schooling that is creative and filled with hope will also be…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanders, Duncan A.; Swift, Michael R.; Bowley, R. M.; King, P. J.
2004-11-01
We present event-driven simulation results for single and multiple intruders in a vertically vibrated granular bed. Under our vibratory conditions, the mean vertical position of a single intruder is governed primarily by a buoyancylike effect. Multiple intruders also exhibit buoyancy governed behavior; however, multiple neutrally buoyant intruders cluster spontaneously and undergo horizontal segregation. These effects can be understood by considering the dynamics of two neutrally buoyant intruders. We have measured an attractive force between such intruders which has a range of five intruder diameters, and we provide a mechanistic explanation for the origins of this force.
Zhao, Tianshan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Qian; Jena, Puru
2016-07-21
Using multiscale first-principles calculations, we show that two interacting negatively charged B12I9(-) monoanions not only attract, in defiance of the Coulomb's law, but also the energy barrier at 400 K is small enough that these two moieties combine to form a stable B24I18(2-) moiety. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations further confirm its stability up to 1500 K. Studies of other B12X9(-) (X = Br, Cl, F, H, Au, CN) show that while all of these B24X18(2-) moieties are stable against dissociation, the energy barrier, with the exception of B24Au18(2-), is large so as to hinder their experimental observation. Our results explain the recent experimental observation of the "spontaneous" formation of B24I18(2-) in an ion trap. A simple model based upon electrostatics shows that this unusual behavior is due to competition between the attractive dipole-dipole interaction caused by the aspherical shape of the particle and the repulsive interaction between the like charges. PMID:27351125
Quantum Bayesian implementation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Haoyang
2013-02-01
Mechanism design is a reverse problem of game theory. Nash implementation and Bayesian implementation are two important parts of mechanism design theory. The former one corresponds to a setting with complete information, whereas the latter one corresponds to a setting with incomplete information. A recent work Wu (Int J Quantum Inf 9:615-623, 2011) shows that when an additional condition is satisfied, the traditional sufficient conditions for Nash implementation will fail in a quantum domain. Inspired by this work, in this paper we will propose that the traditional sufficient conditions for Bayesian implementation will also fail if agents use quantum strategies to send messages to the designer through channels (e.g., Internet, cable etc) and two additional conditions are satisfied.
Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation
Turner, Brandon M.; Van Zandt, Trisha
2013-01-01
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful technique for estimating the posterior distribution of a model’s parameters. It is especially important when the model to be fit has no explicit likelihood function, which happens for computational (or simulation-based) models such as those that are popular in cognitive neuroscience and other areas in psychology. However, ABC is usually applied only to models with few parameters. Extending ABC to hierarchical models has been difficult because high-dimensional hierarchical models add computational complexity that conventional ABC cannot accommodate. In this paper we summarize some current approaches for performing hierarchical ABC and introduce a new algorithm called Gibbs ABC. This new algorithm incorporates well-known Bayesian techniques to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the ABC approach for estimation of hierarchical models. We then use the Gibbs ABC algorithm to estimate the parameters of two models of signal detection, one with and one without a tractable likelihood function. PMID:24297436
Efficient Bayesian Phase Estimation.
Wiebe, Nathan; Granade, Chris
2016-07-01
We introduce a new method called rejection filtering that we use to perform adaptive Bayesian phase estimation. Our approach has several advantages: it is classically efficient, easy to implement, achieves Heisenberg limited scaling, resists depolarizing noise, tracks time-dependent eigenstates, recovers from failures, and can be run on a field programmable gate array. It also outperforms existing iterative phase estimation algorithms such as Kitaev's method. PMID:27419551
Experimental adaptive Bayesian tomography
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kravtsov, K. S.; Straupe, S. S.; Radchenko, I. V.; Houlsby, N. M. T.; Huszár, F.; Kulik, S. P.
2013-06-01
We report an experimental realization of an adaptive quantum state tomography protocol. Our method takes advantage of a Bayesian approach to statistical inference and is naturally tailored for adaptive strategies. For pure states, we observe close to N-1 scaling of infidelity with overall number of registered events, while the best nonadaptive protocols allow for N-1/2 scaling only. Experiments are performed for polarization qubits, but the approach is readily adapted to any dimension.
Efficient Bayesian Phase Estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wiebe, Nathan; Granade, Chris
2016-07-01
We introduce a new method called rejection filtering that we use to perform adaptive Bayesian phase estimation. Our approach has several advantages: it is classically efficient, easy to implement, achieves Heisenberg limited scaling, resists depolarizing noise, tracks time-dependent eigenstates, recovers from failures, and can be run on a field programmable gate array. It also outperforms existing iterative phase estimation algorithms such as Kitaev's method.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wiegerinck, Wim; Schoenaker, Christiaan; Duane, Gregory
2016-04-01
Recently, methods for model fusion by dynamically combining model components in an interactive ensemble have been proposed. In these proposals, fusion parameters have to be learned from data. One can view these systems as parametrized dynamical systems. We address the question of learnability of dynamical systems with respect to both short term (vector field) and long term (attractor) behavior. In particular we are interested in learning in the imperfect model class setting, in which the ground truth has a higher complexity than the models, e.g. due to unresolved scales. We take a Bayesian point of view and we define a joint log-likelihood that consists of two terms, one is the vector field error and the other is the attractor error, for which we take the L1 distance between the stationary distributions of the model and the assumed ground truth. In the context of linear models (like so-called weighted supermodels), and assuming a Gaussian error model in the vector fields, vector field learning leads to a tractable Gaussian solution. This solution can then be used as a prior for the next step, Bayesian attractor learning, in which the attractor error is used as a log-likelihood term. Bayesian attractor learning is implemented by elliptical slice sampling, a sampling method for systems with a Gaussian prior and a non Gaussian likelihood. Simulations with a partially observed driven Lorenz 63 system illustrate the approach.
Integrated Bayesian Experimental Design
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fischer, R.; Dreier, H.; Dinklage, A.; Kurzan, B.; Pasch, E.
2005-11-01
Any scientist planning experiments wants to optimize the design of a future experiment with respect to best performance within the scheduled experimental scenarios. Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) aims in finding optimal experimental settings based on an information theoretic utility function. Optimal design parameters are found by maximizing an expected utility function where the future data and the parameters of physical scenarios of interest are marginalized. The goal of the Integrated Bayesian Experimental Design (IBED) concept is to combine experiments as early as on the design phase to mutually exploit the benefits of the other experiments. The Bayesian Integrated Data Analysis (IDA) concept of linking interdependent measurements to provide a validated data base and to exploit synergetic effects will be used to design meta-diagnostics. An example is given by the Thomson scattering (TS) and the interferometry (IF) diagnostics individually, and a set of both. In finding the optimal experimental design for the meta-diagnostic, TS and IF, the strengths of both experiments can be combined to synergistically increase the reliability of results.
Physical attractiveness and personality development.
Shea, J; Crossman, S M; Adams, G R
1978-05-01
A test of the relationship between physical attractiveness and ego development was completed through an interview study of 294 men and women college students. Ss responded to personality measures assessing identity formation, locus of control, and ego functioning and were rated on facial attractiveness and body form scales. Contrary to the physical attractiveness stereotype, attractive and unattractive Ss did not differ in their personality styles.
Communication and Culture: Interpersonal Attraction.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Brown, Lydia Ledesma; Emry, Robert A.
Cultural differences in interpersonal attraction were studied using 93 black, 112 Chicano, and 112 white college students who completed 40 Likert-type rating scales for each of four concepts of attraction (intimate, friendship, acquaintance, and stranger attraction). When a factor solution was generated, differences were noted in the amount of…
Perceived Attractiveness and Classroom Interactions
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Algozzine, Bob
1977-01-01
Adams and Cohen (1974) demonstrated that facial attractiveness was a salient factor in differential student-teacher interactions. This research investigates further the interaction between teachers and children perceived to be attractive or unattractive by those teachers. It was hypothesized that attractive children would exhibit more "positive,"…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hosny, Hala M.; Kahil, Heba M.
2005-10-01
From our national statistics, it is evident that in the population of physicists there are considerably fewer women than men. Our role is to attract girls to physics and thus decrease this gap. The institutional structure in Egypt provides an equal opportunity for girls to study sciences, including physics. It is reckoned that girls refrain from studying physics due to a group of social and economic factors. We will discuss teaching physics at schools and present some ideas to develop it. The media should play a role in placing female physicists in the spotlight. Unfortunately, careers that require intellectual skills are considered men's careers. This necessitates that society changes the way it sees women and trusts more in their skills and talents. We therefore call for the cooperation of governmental and nongovernmental bodies, together with universities and the production sectors involved. This will ultimately lead to enhancing the entrepreneurial projects related to physics and technology on the one hand, and will encourage girls to find challenging opportunities on the other.
Bayesian Integrated Microbial Forensics
Jarman, Kristin H.; Kreuzer-Martin, Helen W.; Wunschel, David S.; Valentine, Nancy B.; Cliff, John B.; Petersen, Catherine E.; Colburn, Heather A.; Wahl, Karen L.
2008-06-01
In the aftermath of the 2001 anthrax letters, researchers have been exploring ways to predict the production environment of unknown source microorganisms. Different mass spectral techniques are being developed to characterize components of a microbe’s culture medium including water, carbon and nitrogen sources, metal ions added, and the presence of agar. Individually, each technique has the potential to identify one or two ingredients in a culture medium recipe. However, by integrating data from multiple mass spectral techniques, a more complete characterization is possible. We present a Bayesian statistical approach to integrated microbial forensics and illustrate its application on spores grown in different culture media.
Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Caudle, Kyle
2010-01-01
In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…
Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.
Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian
2016-05-01
Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Adaptive Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Ng, B M
2007-10-26
A discrete-time Markov process can be compactly modeled as a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)--a graphical model with nodes representing random variables and directed edges indicating causality between variables. Each node has a probability distribution, conditional on the variables represented by the parent nodes. A DBN's graphical structure encodes fixed conditional dependencies between variables. But in real-world systems, conditional dependencies between variables may be unknown a priori or may vary over time. Model errors can result if the DBN fails to capture all possible interactions between variables. Thus, we explore the representational framework of adaptive DBNs, whose structure and parameters can change from one time step to the next: a distribution's parameters and its set of conditional variables are dynamic. This work builds on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian modeling, such as hierarchical Dirichlet processes, infinite-state hidden Markov networks and structured priors for Bayes net learning. In this paper, we will explain the motivation for our interest in adaptive DBNs, show how popular nonparametric methods are combined to formulate the foundations for adaptive DBNs, and present preliminary results.
Beyond initial attraction: physical attractiveness in newlywed marriage.
McNulty, James K; Neff, Lisa A; Karney, Benjamin R
2008-02-01
Physical appearance plays a crucial role in shaping new relationships, but does it continue to affect established relationships, such as marriage? In the current study, the authors examined how observer ratings of each spouse's facial attractiveness and the difference between those ratings were associated with (a) observations of social support behavior and (b) reports of marital satisfaction. In contrast to the robust and almost universally positive effects of levels of attractiveness on new relationships, the only association between levels of attractiveness and the outcomes of these marriages was that attractive husbands were less satisfied. Further, in contrast to the importance of matched attractiveness to new relationships, similarity in attractiveness was unrelated to spouses' satisfaction and behavior. Instead, the relative difference between partners' levels of attractiveness appeared to be most important in predicting marital behavior, such that both spouses behaved more positively in relationships in which wives were more attractive than their husbands, but they behaved more negatively in relationships in which husbands were more attractive than their wives. These results highlight the importance of dyadic examinations of the effects of spouses' qualities on their marriages. PMID:18266540
Revisiting A Surprising Demonstration of Total Internal Reflection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Jiwon; Cha, Yu Wha; Jung, Yeon Su; Oh, Eun Ju; Moon, Ye Lin; Kim, Jung Bog
2016-10-01
Melton demonstrated a surprising disappearance using total internal reflection. When he put a Florence flask filled with marbles into a water tank and looked straight down from directly above the flask, he was only able to see marbles above a certain water level. When he added more water into the tank above the top line of the marbles, all of the marbles disappeared. He explained this phenomenon as due to a combination of both refraction and total internal reflection. Here, we wanted to develop this surprising idea to create more surprises. However, in our case, we only took the refraction effect from Melton's idea to demonstrate our magic. This idea is supported by various perspectives. For instance, Viss and Sikkema demonstrated the critical angle without using total internal reflection, and James showed the novel optical properties of a submerged light bulb.
On the temporal interpretation of certain surprise questions.
Giorgi, Alessandra
2016-01-01
This article considers a special kind of surprise questions, i.e. those introduced by the adversative particle ma (but), and compares it with surprise exclamations. The main issue addressed here concerns the obligatory presence in the questions of the imperfect verbal form, versus the obligatory presence in exclamations of a non-imperfect indicative. It will be shown that the special semantics associated with these structures determines the presence of a certain verbal form. Some syntactic issues will be addressed in the final section, having to do with the representation in the syntax of properties connected to the context. PMID:27610309
Physical Attractiveness Stereotypes about Marriage: Attractiveness Matching Is Good.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sussman, Steve; And Others
Previous research on physical attractiveness stereotypes about marriage have used stimulus individuals in isolation. To examine these attractiveness stereotypes using couples as targets, 72 college students (36 females, 36 males) rated eight photographs of four male-female couple types. Members of each couple were either matched (attractive…
Bayesian inference in geomagnetism
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Backus, George E.
1988-01-01
The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.
Bayesian classification theory
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hanson, Robin; Stutz, John; Cheeseman, Peter
1991-01-01
The task of inferring a set of classes and class descriptions most likely to explain a given data set can be placed on a firm theoretical foundation using Bayesian statistics. Within this framework and using various mathematical and algorithmic approximations, the AutoClass system searches for the most probable classifications, automatically choosing the number of classes and complexity of class descriptions. A simpler version of AutoClass has been applied to many large real data sets, has discovered new independently-verified phenomena, and has been released as a robust software package. Recent extensions allow attributes to be selectively correlated within particular classes, and allow classes to inherit or share model parameters though a class hierarchy. We summarize the mathematical foundations of AutoClass.
Revisit: A Surprising Demonstration of Total Internal Reflection
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lee, Jiwon; Cha, Yu Wha; Jung, Yeon Su; Oh, Eun Ju; Moon, Ye Lin; Kim, Jung Bog
2016-01-01
Melton demonstrated a surprising disappearance using total internal reflection. When he put a Florence flask filled with marbles into a water tank and looked straight down from directly above the flask, he was only able to see marbles above a certain water level. When he added more water into the tank above the top line of the marbles, all of the…
Surprising yields with no-till cropping systems
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Producers using no-till practices have observed that crop yields can greatly exceed expectations based on nutrient and water supply. For example, Ralph Holzwarth, who farms near Gettysburg, SD, has averaged 150 bu/ac of corn on his farm for the past 6 years. We were surprised with this yield, as c...
Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior.
Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H B; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl
2015-01-01
Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents' to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus 'keep their options open'. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686
Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior.
Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H B; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl
2015-11-13
Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents' to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus 'keep their options open'. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations.
Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior
Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl
2015-01-01
Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents’ to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus ‘keep their options open’. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686
Reconsiderations: Donald Murray and the Pedagogy of Surprise
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ballenger, Bruce
2008-01-01
Toward the end of his life, Donald Murray felt that his approach to writing instruction was no longer appreciated by journals in his field. Nevertheless, his emphasis on encouraging students to surprise themselves through informal writing still has considerable value. (Contains 1 note.)
Physical Attractiveness and Courtship Progress.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
White, Gregory L.
1980-01-01
Among college students who were casual or serious daters, greater relative attractiveness was positively correlated with greater relative availability of opposite-sexed friends and negatively correlated with worrying about partner's potential involvement with others. A 9-month follow-up revealed that similarity of attractiveness was predictive of…
Physical Attractiveness and Counseling Skills.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Vargas, Alice M.; Borkowski, John G.
1982-01-01
Searched for interaction between quality of counseling skills (presence or absence of empathy, genuineness, and positive regard) and physical attractiveness as determinants of counseling effectiveness. Attractiveness influenced perceived effectiveness of counselor's skill. Analyses of expectancy data revealed that only with good skills did…
Physical attractiveness stereotype and memory.
Rohner, Jean-Christophe; Rasmussen, Anders
2011-08-01
Three experiments examined explicit and implicit memory for information that is congruent with the physical attractiveness stereotype (i.e. attractive-positive and unattractive-negative) and information that is incongruent with the physical attractiveness stereotype (i.e. attractive-negative and unattractive-positive). Measures of explicit recognition sensitivity and implicit discriminability revealed a memorial advantage for congruent compared to incongruent information, as evident from hit and false alarm rates and reaction times, respectively. Measures of explicit memory showed a recognition bias toward congruent compared to incongruent information, where participants tended to call congruent information old, independently of whether the information had been shown previously or not. This recognition bias was unrelated to reports of subjective confidence in retrieval. The present findings shed light on the cognitive mechanisms that might mediate discriminatory behavior towards physically attractive and physically unattractive individuals.
African Perceptions of Female Attractiveness
Coetzee, Vinet; Faerber, Stella J.; Greeff, Jaco M.; Lefevre, Carmen E.; Re, Daniel E.; Perrett, David I.
2012-01-01
Little is known about mate choice preferences outside Western, educated, industrialised, rich and democratic societies, even though these Western populations may be particularly unrepresentative of human populations. To our knowledge, this is the first study to test which facial cues contribute to African perceptions of African female attractiveness and also the first study to test the combined role of facial adiposity, skin colour (lightness, yellowness and redness), skin homogeneity and youthfulness in the facial attractiveness preferences of any population. Results show that youthfulness, skin colour, skin homogeneity and facial adiposity significantly and independently predict attractiveness in female African faces. Younger, thinner women with a lighter, yellower skin colour and a more homogenous skin tone are considered more attractive. These findings provide a more global perspective on human mate choice and point to a universal role for these four facial cues in female facial attractiveness. PMID:23144734
Sparsity and the Bayesian perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Starck, J.-L.; Donoho, D. L.; Fadili, M. J.; Rassat, A.
2013-04-01
Sparsity has recently been introduced in cosmology for weak-lensing and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data analysis for different applications such as denoising, component separation, or inpainting (i.e., filling the missing data or the mask). Although it gives very nice numerical results, CMB sparse inpainting has been severely criticized by top researchers in cosmology using arguments derived from a Bayesian perspective. In an attempt to understand their point of view, we realize that interpreting a regularization penalty term as a prior in a Bayesian framework can lead to erroneous conclusions. This paper is by no means against the Bayesian approach, which has proven to be very useful for many applications, but warns against a Bayesian-only interpretation in data analysis, which can be misleading in some cases.
UNIFORMLY MOST POWERFUL BAYESIAN TESTS
Johnson, Valen E.
2014-01-01
Uniformly most powerful tests are statistical hypothesis tests that provide the greatest power against a fixed null hypothesis among all tests of a given size. In this article, the notion of uniformly most powerful tests is extended to the Bayesian setting by defining uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests to be tests that maximize the probability that the Bayes factor, in favor of the alternative hypothesis, exceeds a specified threshold. Like their classical counterpart, uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests are most easily defined in one-parameter exponential family models, although extensions outside of this class are possible. The connection between uniformly most powerful tests and uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests can be used to provide an approximate calibration between p-values and Bayes factors. Finally, issues regarding the strong dependence of resulting Bayes factors and p-values on sample size are discussed. PMID:24659829
Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications
Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.
2010-01-01
This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.
Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jordan, Michelle E.
Approximately one hundred participants met for three days at a conference entitled "Uncertainty and Surprise: Questions on Working with the Unexpected and Unknowable." There were a diversity of conference participants ranging from researchers in the natural sciences and researchers in the social sciences (business professors, physicists, ethnographers, nursing school deans) to practitioners and executives in public policy and management (business owners, health care managers, high tech executives), all of whom had varying levels of experience and expertise in dealing with uncertainty and surprise. One group held the traditional, statistical view that uncertainty comes from variance and events that are described by usually unimodal probability law. A second group was comfortable on the one hand with phase diagrams and the phase transitions that come from systems with multi-modal distributions, and on the other hand, with deterministic chaos. A third group was comfortable with the emergent events from evolutionary processes that may not have any probability laws at all.
Approximate Bayesian multibody tracking.
Lanz, Oswald
2006-09-01
Visual tracking of multiple targets is a challenging problem, especially when efficiency is an issue. Occlusions, if not properly handled, are a major source of failure. Solutions supporting principled occlusion reasoning have been proposed but are yet unpractical for online applications. This paper presents a new solution which effectively manages the trade-off between reliable modeling and computational efficiency. The Hybrid Joint-Separable (HJS) filter is derived from a joint Bayesian formulation of the problem, and shown to be efficient while optimal in terms of compact belief representation. Computational efficiency is achieved by employing a Markov random field approximation to joint dynamics and an incremental algorithm for posterior update with an appearance likelihood that implements a physically-based model of the occlusion process. A particle filter implementation is proposed which achieves accurate tracking during partial occlusions, while in cases of complete occlusion, tracking hypotheses are bound to estimated occlusion volumes. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm is efficient, robust, and able to resolve long-term occlusions between targets with identical appearance. PMID:16929730
The June surprises: balls, strikes, and the fog of war.
Fried, Charles
2013-04-01
At first, few constitutional experts took seriously the argument that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exceeded Congress's power under the commerce clause. The highly political opinions of two federal district judges - carefully chosen by challenging plaintiffs - of no particular distinction did not shake that confidence that the act was constitutional. This disdain for the challengers' arguments was only confirmed when the act was upheld by two highly respected conservative court of appeals judges in two separate circuits. But after the hostile, even mocking questioning of the government's advocate in the Supreme Court by the five Republican-appointed justices, the expectation was that the act would indeed be struck down on that ground. So it came as no surprise when the five opined the act did indeed exceed Congress's commerce clause power. But it came as a great surprise when Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by the four Democrat-appointed justices, ruled that the act could be sustained as an exercise of Congress's taxing power - a ground urged by the government almost as an afterthought. It was further surprising, even shocking, that Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito not only wrote a joint opinion on the commerce clause virtually identical to that of their chief, but that in writing it they did not refer to or even acknowledge his opinion. Finally surprising was the fact that Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer joined the chief in holding that aspects of the act's Medicaid expansion were unconstitutional. This essay ponders and tries to unravel some of these puzzles.
Dietary Effects on Cuticular Hydrocarbons and Sexual Attractiveness in Drosophila
Fedina, Tatyana Y.; Kuo, Tsung-Han; Dreisewerd, Klaus; Dierick, Herman A.; Yew, Joanne Y.; Pletcher, Scott D.
2012-01-01
Dietary composition is known to have profound effects on many aspects of animal physiology, including lifespan, general health, and reproductive potential. We have previously shown that aging and insulin signaling significantly influence the composition and sexual attractiveness of Drosophila melanogaster female cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs), some of which are known to be sex pheromones. Because diet is intimately linked to aging and to the activity of nutrient-sensing pathways, we asked how diet affects female CHCs and attractiveness. Here we report consistent and significant effects of diet composition on female CHC profiles across ages, with dietary yeast and sugar driving CHC changes in opposite directions. Surprisingly, however, we found no evidence that these changes affect female attractiveness. Multivariate comparisons among responses of CHC profiles to diet, aging, and insulin signaling suggest that diet may alter the levels of some CHCs in a way that results in profiles that are more attractive while simultaneously altering other CHCs in a way that makes them less attractive. For example, changes in short-chain CHCs induced by a high-yeast diet phenocopy changes caused by aging and by decreased insulin signaling, both of which result in less attractive females. On the other hand, changes in long-chain CHCs in response to the same diet result in levels that are comparable to those observed in attractive young females and females with increased insulin signaling. The effects of a high-sugar diet tend in the opposite direction, as levels of short-chain CHCs resemble those in attractive females with increased insulin signaling and changes in long-chain CHCs are similar to those caused by decreased insulin signaling. Together, these data suggest that diet-dependent changes in female CHCs may be sending conflicting messages to males. PMID:23227150
Attraction between hydrated hydrophilic surfaces
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kanduč, Matej; Schneck, Emanuel; Netz, Roland R.
2014-08-01
According to common knowledge, hydrophilic surfaces repel via hydration forces while hydrophobic surfaces attract, but mounting experimental evidence suggests that also hydrophilic surfaces can attract. Using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations at prescribed water chemical potential we study the crossover from hydration repulsion to hydrophobic attraction for planar polar surfaces of varying stiffness and hydrogen-bonding capability. Rescaling the partial charges of the polar surface groups, we cover the complete spectrum from very hydrophobic surfaces (characterized by contact angles θ ≃ 135°) to hydrophilic surfaces exhibiting complete wetting (θ = 0°). Indeed, for a finite range θadh < θ < 90°, we find a regime where hydrophilic surfaces attract at sub-nanometer separation and stably adhere without intervening water. The adhesive contact angle θadh depends on surface type and lies in the range 65° < θadh < 80°, in good agreement with experiments. Analysis of the total number of hydrogen bonds (HBs) formed by water and surface groups rationalizes this crossover between hydration repulsion and hydrophilic attraction in terms of a subtle balance: Highly polar surfaces repel because of strongly bound hydration water, less polar hydrophilic surfaces attract because water-water HBs are preferred over surface-water HBs. Such solvent reorganization forces presumably underlie also other important phenomena, such as selective ion adsorption to interfaces as well as ion pair formation.
Vocal attractiveness increases by averaging.
Bruckert, Laetitia; Bestelmeyer, Patricia; Latinus, Marianne; Rouger, Julien; Charest, Ian; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Kawahara, Hideki; Belin, Pascal
2010-01-26
Vocal attractiveness has a profound influence on listeners-a bias known as the "what sounds beautiful is good" vocal attractiveness stereotype [1]-with tangible impact on a voice owner's success at mating, job applications, and/or elections. The prevailing view holds that attractive voices are those that signal desirable attributes in a potential mate [2-4]-e.g., lower pitch in male voices. However, this account does not explain our preferences in more general social contexts in which voices of both genders are evaluated. Here we show that averaging voices via auditory morphing [5] results in more attractive voices, irrespective of the speaker's or listener's gender. Moreover, we show that this phenomenon is largely explained by two independent by-products of averaging: a smoother voice texture (reduced aperiodicities) and a greater similarity in pitch and timbre with the average of all voices (reduced "distance to mean"). These results provide the first evidence for a phenomenon of vocal attractiveness increases by averaging, analogous to a well-established effect of facial averaging [6, 7]. They highlight prototype-based coding [8] as a central feature of voice perception, emphasizing the similarity in the mechanisms of face and voice perception.
Heritability of Attractiveness to Mosquitoes
Fernández-Grandon, G. Mandela; Gezan, Salvador A.; Armour, John A. L.; Pickett, John A.; Logan, James G.
2015-01-01
Female mosquitoes display preferences for certain individuals over others, which is determined by differences in volatile chemicals produced by the human body and detected by mosquitoes. Body odour can be controlled genetically but the existence of a genetic basis for differential attraction to insects has never been formally demonstrated. This study investigated heritability of attractiveness to mosquitoes by evaluating the response of Aedes aegypti (=Stegomyia aegypti) mosquitoes to odours from the hands of identical and non-identical twins in a dual-choice assay. Volatiles from individuals in an identical twin pair showed a high correlation in attractiveness to mosquitoes, while non-identical twin pairs showed a significantly lower correlation. Overall, there was a strong narrow-sense heritability of 0.62 (SE 0.124) for relative attraction and 0.67 (0.354) for flight activity based on the average of ten measurements. The results demonstrate an underlying genetic component detectable by mosquitoes through olfaction. Understanding the genetic basis for attractiveness could create a more informed approach to repellent development. PMID:25901606
Vocal attractiveness increases by averaging.
Bruckert, Laetitia; Bestelmeyer, Patricia; Latinus, Marianne; Rouger, Julien; Charest, Ian; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Kawahara, Hideki; Belin, Pascal
2010-01-26
Vocal attractiveness has a profound influence on listeners-a bias known as the "what sounds beautiful is good" vocal attractiveness stereotype [1]-with tangible impact on a voice owner's success at mating, job applications, and/or elections. The prevailing view holds that attractive voices are those that signal desirable attributes in a potential mate [2-4]-e.g., lower pitch in male voices. However, this account does not explain our preferences in more general social contexts in which voices of both genders are evaluated. Here we show that averaging voices via auditory morphing [5] results in more attractive voices, irrespective of the speaker's or listener's gender. Moreover, we show that this phenomenon is largely explained by two independent by-products of averaging: a smoother voice texture (reduced aperiodicities) and a greater similarity in pitch and timbre with the average of all voices (reduced "distance to mean"). These results provide the first evidence for a phenomenon of vocal attractiveness increases by averaging, analogous to a well-established effect of facial averaging [6, 7]. They highlight prototype-based coding [8] as a central feature of voice perception, emphasizing the similarity in the mechanisms of face and voice perception. PMID:20129047
Facial patterning and infant emotional expression: happiness, surprise, and fear.
Hiatt, S W; Campos, J J; Emde, R N
1979-12-01
Although recent studies have convincingly demonstrated that emotional expressions can be judged reliably from actor-posed facial displays, there exists little evidence that facial expressions in lifelike settings are similar to actor-posed displays, are reliable across situations designed to elicit the same emotion, or provide sufficient information to mediate consistent emotion judgments by raters. The present study therefore investigated these issues as they related to the emotions of happiness, surprise, and fear. 27 infants between 10 and 12 months of age (when emotion masking is not likely to confound results) were tested in 2 situations designed to elicit hapiness (peek-a-boo game and a collapsing toy), 2 to elicit surprise (a toy-switch and a vanishing-object task), and 2 to elicit fear (the visual cliff and the approach of a stranger. Dependent variables included changes in 28 facial response components taken from previous work using actor poses, as well as judgments of the presence of 6 discrete emotions. In addition, instrumental behaviors were used to verify with other than facial expression responses whether the predicted emotion was elicited. In contrast to previous conclusions on the subject, we found that judges were able to make all facial expression judgments reliably, even in the absence of contextual information. Support was also obtained for at least some degree of specificity of facial component response patterns, especially for happiness and surprise. Emotion judgments by raters were found to be a function of the presence of discrete facial components predicted to be linked to those emotions. Finally, almost all situations elicited blends, rather than discrete emotions. PMID:535426
The doctor was surprised; or, how to diagnose a miracle.
Duffin, Jacalyn
2007-01-01
A survey of more than six hundred miracle records in the canonization files of the Vatican Secret Archives from the seventeenth century to the twentieth century reveals that more than 95 percent are healings from illness. The history of the canonization process is summarized to explain the sources. The diagnoses amenable to miracle cure change through time to reflect current medical preoccupations and methods. Physician testimony has always been crucial to the investigation of miracles for declaring the hopeless prognosis and the surprise at recovery. From this analysis, medicine and religion emerge as parallel semiotic endeavors, using their canons of wisdom and careful observation to derive meaning in suffering.
Aversion and attraction through olfaction
Li, Qian; Liberles, Stephen D.
2015-01-01
Sensory cues that predict reward or punishment are fundamental drivers of animal behavior. For example, attractive odors of palatable food or a potential mate predict reward while aversive odors of pathogen-laced food or a predator predict punishment. Aversive and attractive odors can be detected by intermingled sensory neurons that express highly related olfactory receptors and display similar central projections. These findings raise basic questions of how innate odor valence is extracted from olfactory circuits, how such circuits are developmentally endowed and modulated by state, and the relationship between innate and learned odor responses. Here, we review odors, receptors, and neural circuits associated with stimulus valence, discussing salient principles derived from studies on nematodes, insects, and vertebrates. Understanding the organization of neural circuitry that mediates odor aversion and attraction will provide key insights into how the brain functions. PMID:25649823
Aversion and attraction through olfaction.
Li, Qian; Liberles, Stephen D
2015-02-01
Sensory cues that predict reward or punishment are fundamental drivers of animal behavior. For example, attractive odors of palatable food or a potential mate predict reward, while aversive odors of pathogen-laced food or a predator predict punishment. Aversive and attractive odors can be detected by intermingled sensory neurons that express highly related olfactory receptors and display similar central projections. These findings raise basic questions of how innate odor valence is extracted from olfactory circuits, how such circuits are developmentally endowed and modulated by state, and how innate and learned odor responses are related. Here, we review odors, receptors and neural circuits associated with stimulus valence, discussing salient principles derived from studies on nematodes, insects and vertebrates. Understanding the organization of neural circuitry that mediates odor aversion and attraction will provide key insights into how the brain functions.
Perception, illusions and Bayesian inference.
Nour, Matthew M; Nour, Joseph M
2015-01-01
Descriptive psychopathology makes a distinction between veridical perception and illusory perception. In both cases a perception is tied to a sensory stimulus, but in illusions the perception is of a false object. This article re-examines this distinction in light of new work in theoretical and computational neurobiology, which views all perception as a form of Bayesian statistical inference that combines sensory signals with prior expectations. Bayesian perceptual inference can solve the 'inverse optics' problem of veridical perception and provides a biologically plausible account of a number of illusory phenomena, suggesting that veridical and illusory perceptions are generated by precisely the same inferential mechanisms.
Estimations of expectedness and potential surprise in possibility theory
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Prade, Henri; Yager, Ronald R.
1992-01-01
This note investigates how various ideas of 'expectedness' can be captured in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, we are interested in trying to introduce estimates of the kind of lack of surprise expressed by people when saying 'I would not be surprised that...' before an event takes place, or by saying 'I knew it' after its realization. In possibility theory, a possibility distribution is supposed to model the relative levels of mutually exclusive alternatives in a set, or equivalently, the alternatives are assumed to be rank-ordered according to their level of possibility to take place. Four basic set-functions associated with a possibility distribution, including standard possibility and necessity measures, are discussed from the point of view of what they estimate when applied to potential events. Extensions of these estimates based on the notions of Q-projection or OWA operators are proposed when only significant parts of the possibility distribution are retained in the evaluation. The case of partially-known possibility distributions is also considered. Some potential applications are outlined.
A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.
2009-01-01
A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are…
Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen
2013-01-01
The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…
Functional Similarity and Interpersonal Attraction.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Neimeyer, Greg J.; Neimeyer, Robert A.
1981-01-01
Students participated in dyadic disclosure exercises over a five-week period. Results indicated members of high functional similarity dyads evidenced greater attraction to one another than did members of low functional similarity dyads. "Friendship" pairs of male undergraduates displayed greater functional similarity than did "nominal" pairs from…
Attracting and Preparing Worthy Teachers.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Shiina, Mankichi; Chonan, Mitsuo
1993-01-01
Attracting worthy teachers to the compulsory education system in Japan requires attention to three issues: teacher salaries, strengthening initial teacher preparation, and expansion and systemization of teacher training. The one-year beginning teachers' inservice training program began in 1989 in response to the third issue. (IAH)
Axon guidance: FLRTing promotes attraction.
Lowery, Laura Anne
2014-03-01
A recent study demonstrates a new mechanism by which crosstalk between multiple guidance cues is integrated during axon pathfinding. FLRT3 is a novel co-receptor for Robo1 that acts as a context-dependent modulator of Netrin-1 attraction in thalamocortical axons.
Attracting Birds to Your Backyard.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Joyce, Brian
1994-01-01
Discusses methods for drawing birds to outdoor education areas, including the use of wild and native vegetation. Lists specific garden plants suitable for attracting birds in each season. Includes a guide to commercial bird seed and instructions for building homemade birdfeeders and nestboxes. (LZ)
Bayesian stable isotope mixing models
In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...
Bayesian Integration of Spatial Information
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cheng, Ken; Shettleworth, Sara J.; Huttenlocher, Janellen; Rieser, John J.
2007-01-01
Spatial judgments and actions are often based on multiple cues. The authors review a multitude of phenomena on the integration of spatial cues in diverse species to consider how nearly optimally animals combine the cues. Under the banner of Bayesian perception, cues are sometimes combined and weighted in a near optimal fashion. In other instances…
Fatal attraction: sexually cannibalistic invaders attract naive native mantids
Fea, Murray P.; Stanley, Margaret C.; Holwell, Gregory I.
2013-01-01
Overlap in the form of sexual signals such as pheromones raises the possibility of reproductive interference by invasive species on similar, yet naive native species. Here, we test the potential for reproductive interference through heterospecific mate attraction and subsequent predation of males by females of a sexually cannibalistic invasive praying mantis. Miomantis caffra is invasive in New Zealand, where it is widely considered to be displacing the only native mantis species, Orthodera novaezealandiae, and yet mechanisms behind this displacement are unknown. We demonstrate that native males are more attracted to the chemical cues of introduced females than those of conspecific females. Heterospecific pairings also resulted in a high degree of mortality for native males. This provides evidence for a mechanism behind displacement that has until now been undetected and highlights the potential for reproductive interference to greatly influence the impact of an invasive species. PMID:24284560
Fatal attraction: sexually cannibalistic invaders attract naive native mantids.
Fea, Murray P; Stanley, Margaret C; Holwell, Gregory I
2013-01-01
Overlap in the form of sexual signals such as pheromones raises the possibility of reproductive interference by invasive species on similar, yet naive native species. Here, we test the potential for reproductive interference through heterospecific mate attraction and subsequent predation of males by females of a sexually cannibalistic invasive praying mantis. Miomantis caffra is invasive in New Zealand, where it is widely considered to be displacing the only native mantis species, Orthodera novaezealandiae, and yet mechanisms behind this displacement are unknown. We demonstrate that native males are more attracted to the chemical cues of introduced females than those of conspecific females. Heterospecific pairings also resulted in a high degree of mortality for native males. This provides evidence for a mechanism behind displacement that has until now been undetected and highlights the potential for reproductive interference to greatly influence the impact of an invasive species. PMID:24284560
Bayesian Alternation during Tactile Augmentation
Goeke, Caspar M.; Planera, Serena; Finger, Holger; König, Peter
2016-01-01
A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well-described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study, we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC) task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition), rotation only (native condition), and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition). Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants' responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND). Then, we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67) than the Bayesian integration model (χred2 = 4.34). Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all (WTA) model (χred2 = 1.64), which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However, the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2 = 1.09) utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in
Destabilization of flapping sheets: The surprising analogue of soap films
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lhuissier, H.; Villermaux, E.
2009-06-01
When punctured, a uniform liquid sheet is known, since Taylor and Culick, to recess at a constant speed, balancing surface tension and inertia. For planar soap films, this steady solution holds until the initially smooth receding rim is violently destabilized, exhibiting deep indentations from which droplets are ejected. A surprising new three-dimensional mechanism explaining this destabilization and resulting wavelength has been demonstrated: because of the shear between the still outer medium and the receding liquid, the film flaps through a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, itself inducing an acceleration perpendicular to the film, which intensifies with the flapping amplitude. To this acceleration is associated a classical Rayleigh-Taylor mechanism, promoting the rim indentations. To cite this article: H. Lhuissier, E. Villermaux, C. R. Mecanique 337 (2009).
Stability of the Taylor--Culick receding rim: surprising observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lhuissier, Henri; Villermaux, Emmanuel
2008-11-01
When punctured, a uniform liquid sheet is known, since Taylor and Culick, to recess at a constant speed balancing surface tension and inertia. For planar soap films, this steady solution holds until the initially smooth receding rim is violently destabilized, exhibiting deep indentations from which droplets are ejected. A surprising new three dimensional mechanism explaining this destabilization and resulting wavelength has been evidenced : because of the shear between the still outer medium and the receding liquid, the film flaps through a Kelvin--Helmholtz instability, itself inducing an acceleration perpendicular to the film, which intensifies with the flapping amplitude. To this acceleration is associated a classical Rayleigh--Taylor mechanism, promoting the rim indentations. The same mechanism holds for a punctured round bubble, for which the relevant acceleration is the Culick velocity squared divided by the bubble radius. The bearing of this phenomenon on aerosols formation in Nature will be underlined.
Surprisingly Low Limits of Selection in Plant Domestication
Allaby, Robin G.; Kitchen, James L.; Fuller, Dorian Q.
2015-01-01
Current debate concerns the pace at which domesticated plants emerged from cultivated wild populations and how many genes were involved. Using an individual-based model, based on the assumptions of Haldane and Maynard Smith, respectively, we estimate that a surprisingly low number of 50–100 loci are the most that could be under selection in a cultivation regime at the selection strengths observed in the archaeological record. This finding is robust to attempts to rescue populations from extinction through selection from high standing genetic variation, gene flow, and the Maynard Smith-based model of threshold selection. Selective sweeps come at a cost, reducing the capacity of plants to adapt to new environments, which may contribute to the explanation of why selective sweeps have not been detected more frequently and why expansion of the agrarian package during the Neolithic was so frequently associated with collapse. PMID:27081302
Surprising hair analysis results following acute carbofuran intoxication.
Dulaurent, S; Gaulier, J M; Zouaoui, K; Moesch, C; François, B; Lachâtre, G
2011-10-10
We present two non fatal cases of intoxication with carbofuran (CBF) documented by hair analysis. Carbofuran and 3-hydroxycarbofuran (OHCBF, its main metabolite) hair concentrations were determined using a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. The obtained results were surprising if we consider several hair analyses previously published and based on a theory of the presence of xenobiotic in the only segment that comprised its intake. Among the two intoxication cases, we noticed the presence of CBF and OHCBF in hair segments corresponding to 45 days before, and more than 100 days after, the day of intoxication. Additionally, repeated hair samplings and subsequent analysis revealed a decrease of the carbofuran's concentration during the hair life.
Tree Leaf Shadows to the Sun's Density: A Surprising Route
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mallmann, A. James
2013-01-01
Rays of sunlight that strike raindrops produce rainbows that provide information about the spectrum of sunlight. Rays of sunlight that strike airborne ice crystals produce halos, sun pillars, and many other patterns of light and color in the sky. Analysis of those patterns makes it possible to determine the types and orientations of the ice crystals. Rays of sunlight that strike opaque objects produce shadow patterns that can be seen on any clear day. I was surprised to discover that the shadow patterns produced when sunlight strikes tree leaves provide all the information needed to determine the average density of the Sun. It seems unlikely that the Sun's density could be determined without knowing its mass or its volume. And, although it may seem even more unlikely, the density of the Sun can be determined using only information available in the shadows of tree leaves.
Fast Gibbs sampling for high-dimensional Bayesian inversion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lucka, Felix
2016-11-01
Solving ill-posed inverse problems by Bayesian inference has recently attracted considerable attention. Compared to deterministic approaches, the probabilistic representation of the solution by the posterior distribution can be exploited to explore and quantify its uncertainties. In applications where the inverse solution is subject to further analysis procedures can be a significant advantage. Alongside theoretical progress, various new computational techniques allow us to sample very high dimensional posterior distributions: in (Lucka 2012 Inverse Problems 28 125012), and a Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior sampler was developed for linear inverse problems with {{\\ell }}1-type priors. In this article, we extend this single component (SC) Gibbs-type sampler to a wide range of priors used in Bayesian inversion, such as general {{\\ell }}pq priors with additional hard constraints. In addition, a fast computation of the conditional, SC densities in an explicit, parameterized form, a fast, robust and exact sampling from these one-dimensional densities is key to obtain an efficient algorithm. We demonstrate that a generalization of slice sampling can utilize their specific structure for this task and illustrate the performance of the resulting slice-within-Gibbs samplers by different computed examples. These new samplers allow us to perform sample-based Bayesian inference in high-dimensional scenarios with certain priors for the first time, including the inversion of computed tomography data with the popular isotropic total variation prior.
Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M.; Streets, D.G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C.H.; Stewart, T.R.
1998-01-01
This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.
Jokela, Markus
2009-09-01
Physical attractiveness has been associated with mating behavior, but its role in reproductive success of contemporary humans has received surprisingly little attention. In the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (1244 women, 997 men born between 1937 and 1940) we examined whether attractiveness assessed from photographs taken at age ~18 predicted the number of biological children at age 53-56. In women, attractiveness predicted higher reproductive success in a nonlinear fashion, so that attractive (second highest quartile) women had 16% and very attractive (highest quartile) women 6% more children than their less attractive counterparts. In men, there was a threshold effect so that men in the lowest attractiveness quartile had 13% fewer children than others who did not differ from each other in the average number of children. These associations were partly but not completely accounted for by attractive participants' increased marriage probability. A linear regression analysis indicated relatively weak directional selection gradient for attractiveness (β=0.06 in women, β=0.07 in men). These findings indicate that physical attractiveness may be associated with reproductive success in humans living in industrialized settings.
Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research
Little, Anthony C.; Jones, Benedict C.; DeBruine, Lisa M.
2011-01-01
Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners. PMID:21536551
Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research.
Little, Anthony C; Jones, Benedict C; DeBruine, Lisa M
2011-06-12
Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanders, D. A.; Swift, M. R.; Bowley, R. M.; King, P. J.
2006-02-01
Simulations of intruder particles in a vertically vibrated granular bed suggest that neutrally-buoyant intruders are attracted to one another (Phys. Rev. Lett., 93 (2004) 208002). The simulations, however, ignore important physical effects such as friction and convection which are known to influence intruder behaviour. Here, we present experimental evidence for this intruder-intruder interaction, obtained by monitoring the position of neutrally-buoyant metallic disks in a vibrated bed of glass spheres. An effective long-range attraction is shown to exist between a pair of intruders for a range of driving conditions. If further intruder particles are added, a tightly bound cluster of intruders can form. These results highlight the difficulty of retaining well-mixed granular beds under vertical vibration.
Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research.
Little, Anthony C; Jones, Benedict C; DeBruine, Lisa M
2011-06-12
Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners. PMID:21536551
Fingertip aura and interpersonal attraction.
Murstein, B I; Hadjolian, S E
1977-06-01
Concluding from our survey of the literature that fingertip auras (Kirlian effect) might be associated with interpersonal attraction, four hypotheses were advanced to test this assertion. It was hypothesized that individuals would respond with bigger auras to (1) opposite-sex photographers as compared to same-sex photographers, (2) to seductive opposite-sex photographers as opposed to normally behaving opposite-sex photographers, (3) to opposite-sex unknown peers as opposed to same-sex unknown peers, and (4) to liked as opposed to disliked same-sex persons. All hypotheses except (2) were supported. The second hypothesis was significant in a direction contrary to hypothesis. Fingertip auras are seen as a promising measurement device in the study of interpersonal attraction. PMID:16367230
Can Pensions Help Attract Teachers?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kimball, Steven M.; Heneman, Herbert G.,III; Kellor, Eileen M.
2005-01-01
Every year there is a substantial flow of people into teaching roles as entrants or as movers from one school to another. Each such move involves attraction of the person to the job. Data for 1999-2000 reveal several important findings about teacher staffing. In 1999-2000, out of a teaching workforce of about 3.45 million, there were about 535,000…
Collective motion from local attraction.
Strömbom, Daniel
2011-08-21
Many animal groups, for example schools of fish or flocks of birds, exhibit complex dynamic patterns while moving cohesively in the same direction. These flocking patterns have been studied using self-propelled particle models, most of which assume that collective motion arises from individuals aligning with their neighbours. Here, we propose a self-propelled particle model in which the only social force between individuals is attraction. We show that this model generates three different phases: swarms, undirected mills and moving aligned groups. By studying our model in the zero noise limit, we show how these phases depend on the relative strength of attraction and individual inertia. Moreover, by restricting the field of vision of the individuals and increasing the degree of noise in the system, we find that the groups generate both directed mills and three dynamically moving, 'rotating chain' structures. A rich diversity of patterns is generated by social attraction alone, which may provide insight into the dynamics of natural flocks. PMID:21620861
Attracted diffusion-limited aggregation.
Rahbari, S H Ebrahimnazhad; Saberi, A A
2012-07-01
In this paper we present results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) with a seed placed on an attractive plane as a simple model in connection with the electrical double layers. We compute the fractal dimension of the aggregated patterns as a function of the attraction strength α. For the patterns grown in both two and three dimensions, the fractal dimension shows a significant dependence on the attraction strength for small values of α and approaches that of the ordinary two-dimensional (2D) DLA in the limit of large α. For the nonattracting case with α = 1, our results in three dimensions reproduce the patterns of 3D ordinary DLA, while in two dimensions our model leads to the formation of a compact cluster with dimension 2. For intermediate α, the 3D clusters have a quasi-2D structure with a fractal dimension very close to that of the ordinary 2D DLA. This allows one to control the morphology of a growing cluster by tuning a single external parameter α. PMID:23005417
Attracted diffusion-limited aggregation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rahbari, S. H. Ebrahimnazhad; Saberi, A. A.
2012-07-01
In this paper we present results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) with a seed placed on an attractive plane as a simple model in connection with the electrical double layers. We compute the fractal dimension of the aggregated patterns as a function of the attraction strength α. For the patterns grown in both two and three dimensions, the fractal dimension shows a significant dependence on the attraction strength for small values of α and approaches that of the ordinary two-dimensional (2D) DLA in the limit of large α. For the nonattracting case with α=1, our results in three dimensions reproduce the patterns of 3D ordinary DLA, while in two dimensions our model leads to the formation of a compact cluster with dimension 2. For intermediate α, the 3D clusters have a quasi-2D structure with a fractal dimension very close to that of the ordinary 2D DLA. This allows one to control the morphology of a growing cluster by tuning a single external parameter α.
Collective motion from local attraction.
Strömbom, Daniel
2011-08-21
Many animal groups, for example schools of fish or flocks of birds, exhibit complex dynamic patterns while moving cohesively in the same direction. These flocking patterns have been studied using self-propelled particle models, most of which assume that collective motion arises from individuals aligning with their neighbours. Here, we propose a self-propelled particle model in which the only social force between individuals is attraction. We show that this model generates three different phases: swarms, undirected mills and moving aligned groups. By studying our model in the zero noise limit, we show how these phases depend on the relative strength of attraction and individual inertia. Moreover, by restricting the field of vision of the individuals and increasing the degree of noise in the system, we find that the groups generate both directed mills and three dynamically moving, 'rotating chain' structures. A rich diversity of patterns is generated by social attraction alone, which may provide insight into the dynamics of natural flocks.
Bayesian versus 'plain-vanilla Bayesian' multitarget statistics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mahler, Ronald P. S.
2004-08-01
Finite-set statistics (FISST) is a direct generalization of single-sensor, single-target Bayes statistics to the multisensor-multitarget realm, based on random set theory. Various aspects of FISST are being investigated by several research teams around the world. In recent years, however, a few partisans have claimed that a "plain-vanilla Bayesian approach" suffices as down-to-earth, "straightforward," and general "first principles" for multitarget problems. Therefore, FISST is mere mathematical "obfuscation." In this and a companion paper I demonstrate the speciousness of these claims. In this paper I summarize general Bayes statistics, what is required to use it in multisensor-multitarget problems, and why FISST is necessary to make it practical. Then I demonstrate that the "plain-vanilla Bayesian approach" is so heedlessly formulated that it is erroneous, not even Bayesian denigrates FISST concepts while unwittingly assuming them, and has resulted in a succession of algorithms afflicted by inherent -- but less than candidly acknowledged -- computational "logjams."
Subjective and Objective Facial Attractiveness
Stillman, Mark A.; Frisina, Andrew C.
2010-01-01
Background: Studies have not adequately compared subjective/objective ratings of female dermatology patients including patients presenting for cosmetic procedures. Objective: To examine objective versus subjective facial attractiveness ratings, demographic variables, and how men versus women judge female facial attractiveness. Methods: Sixty-five women (mean 42 years) presenting to a dermatology office. Subjects filled out a demographic and attractiveness questionnaire and were photographed. Four judges (2 male and 2 female) rated the photographs on a predefined 1 to 7 scale. Results: Mean subjective rating (subjects rating themselves) was 4.85 versus 3.61 for objective rating (judges rating subjects) (p<0.001). The mean age of subjects self-rating (subjective rating) who rated themselves in the 5 to 7 range was 39 years; the mean age of subjects self-rating (subjective rating) who rated themselves in the 3 to 4 range was 45 years (p=0.053). The mean age of subjects objectively rated by judges in the 5 to 7 range was 33 years; the mean age of subjects objectively rated by judges in the 3 to 4 range was 43 years (p<0.001); and the mean age of subjects objectively rated by judges in the 1 to 2 range was 50 years (p<0.001). The mean subjective rating (subjects rating themselves) for married women was 4.55 versus 5.27 for unmarried women (p=0.007); the mean objective rating (judges rating subjects) was 3.22 versus 4.15 (p<0.001). The mean objective rating by male judges was 3.09 versus 4.12 for female judges (p<0.001) Conclusion: Female patients presenting to a dermatology office rated themselves more attractive than did judges who viewed photographs of the subjects. Age and marital status were significant factors, and male judges rated attractiveness lower than female judges. Limitations of the study, implications, and suggestions for future research directions are discussed. PMID:21203353
Bayesian inferences about the self (and others): A review
Moutoussis, Michael; Fearon, Pasco; El-Deredy, Wael; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.
2014-01-01
Viewing the brain as an organ of approximate Bayesian inference can help us understand how it represents the self. We suggest that inferred representations of the self have a normative function: to predict and optimise the likely outcomes of social interactions. Technically, we cast this predict-and-optimise as maximising the chance of favourable outcomes through active inference. Here the utility of outcomes can be conceptualised as prior beliefs about final states. Actions based on interpersonal representations can therefore be understood as minimising surprise – under the prior belief that one will end up in states with high utility. Interpersonal representations thus serve to render interactions more predictable, while the affective valence of interpersonal inference renders self-perception evaluative. Distortions of self-representation contribute to major psychiatric disorders such as depression, personality disorder and paranoia. The approach we review may therefore operationalise the study of interpersonal representations in pathological states. PMID:24583455
Pedestrian dynamics via Bayesian networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Venkat, Ibrahim; Khader, Ahamad Tajudin; Subramanian, K. G.
2014-06-01
Studies on pedestrian dynamics have vital applications in crowd control management relevant to organizing safer large scale gatherings including pilgrimages. Reasoning pedestrian motion via computational intelligence techniques could be posed as a potential research problem within the realms of Artificial Intelligence. In this contribution, we propose a "Bayesian Network Model for Pedestrian Dynamics" (BNMPD) to reason the vast uncertainty imposed by pedestrian motion. With reference to key findings from literature which include simulation studies, we systematically identify: What are the various factors that could contribute to the prediction of crowd flow status? The proposed model unifies these factors in a cohesive manner using Bayesian Networks (BNs) and serves as a sophisticated probabilistic tool to simulate vital cause and effect relationships entailed in the pedestrian domain.
Bayesian inference on proportional elections.
Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio
2015-01-01
Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.
Bayesian seismology of the Sun
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gruberbauer, M.; Guenther, D. B.
2013-06-01
We perform a Bayesian grid-based analysis of the solar l = 0, 1, 2 and 3 p modes obtained via BiSON in order to deliver the first Bayesian asteroseismic analysis of the solar composition problem. We do not find decisive evidence to prefer either of the contending chemical compositions, although the revised solar abundances (AGSS09) are more probable in general. We do find indications for systematic problems in standard stellar evolution models, unrelated to the consequences of inadequate modelling of the outer layers on the higher order modes. The seismic observables are best fitted by solar models that are several hundred million years older than the meteoritic age of the Sun. Similarly, meteoritic age calibrated models do not adequately reproduce the observed seismic observables. Our results suggest that these problems will affect any asteroseismic inference that relies on a calibration to the Sun.
Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections
Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio
2015-01-01
Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259
Bayesian segmentation of hyperspectral images
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mohammadpour, Adel; Féron, Olivier; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2004-11-01
In this paper we consider the problem of joint segmentation of hyperspectral images in the Bayesian framework. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently with common hidden classification label variables which is modeled by a Potts Markov Random Field. We introduce an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results.
Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.
2001-01-01
With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores
Bayesian analysis for kaon photoproduction
Marsainy, T. Mart, T.
2014-09-25
We have investigated contribution of the nucleon resonances in the kaon photoproduction process by using an established statistical decision making method, i.e. the Bayesian method. This method does not only evaluate the model over its entire parameter space, but also takes the prior information and experimental data into account. The result indicates that certain resonances have larger probabilities to contribute to the process.
Elements of Bayesian experimental design
Sivia, D.S.
1997-09-01
We consider some elements of the Bayesian approach that are important for optimal experimental design. While the underlying principles used are very general, and are explained in detail in a recent tutorial text, they are applied here to the specific case of characterising the inferential value of different resolution peakshapes. This particular issue was considered earlier by Silver, Sivia and Pynn (1989, 1990a, 1990b), and the following presentation confirms and extends the conclusions of their analysis.
Bayesian kinematic earthquake source models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Minson, S. E.; Simons, M.; Beck, J. L.; Genrich, J. F.; Galetzka, J. E.; Chowdhury, F.; Owen, S. E.; Webb, F.; Comte, D.; Glass, B.; Leiva, C.; Ortega, F. H.
2009-12-01
Most coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic slip models are based on highly regularized optimizations which yield one solution which satisfies the data given a particular set of regularizing constraints. This regularization hampers our ability to answer basic questions such as whether seismic and aseismic slip overlap or instead rupture separate portions of the fault zone. We present a Bayesian methodology for generating kinematic earthquake source models with a focus on large subduction zone earthquakes. Unlike classical optimization approaches, Bayesian techniques sample the ensemble of all acceptable models presented as an a posteriori probability density function (PDF), and thus we can explore the entire solution space to determine, for example, which model parameters are well determined and which are not, or what is the likelihood that two slip distributions overlap in space. Bayesian sampling also has the advantage that all a priori knowledge of the source process can be used to mold the a posteriori ensemble of models. Although very powerful, Bayesian methods have up to now been of limited use in geophysical modeling because they are only computationally feasible for problems with a small number of free parameters due to what is called the "curse of dimensionality." However, our methodology can successfully sample solution spaces of many hundreds of parameters, which is sufficient to produce finite fault kinematic earthquake models. Our algorithm is a modification of the tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo (tempered MCMC or TMCMC) method. In our algorithm, we sample a "tempered" a posteriori PDF using many MCMC simulations running in parallel and evolutionary computation in which models which fit the data poorly are preferentially eliminated in favor of models which better predict the data. We present results for both synthetic test problems as well as for the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake, the latter of which is constrained by InSAR, local high
Atom Surprise: Using Theatre in Primary Science Education
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peleg, Ran; Baram-Tsabari, Ayelet
2011-10-01
Early exposure to science may have a lifelong effect on children's attitudes towards science and their motivation to learn science in later life. Out-of-class environments can play a significant role in creating favourable attitudes, while contributing to conceptual learning. Educational science theatre is one form of an out-of-class environment, which has received little research attention. This study aims to describe affective and cognitive learning outcomes of watching such a play and to point to connections between theatrical elements and specific outcomes. "Atom Surprise" is a play portraying several concepts on the topic of matter. A mixed methods approach was adopted to investigate the knowledge and attitudes of children (grades 1-6) from two different school settings who watched the play. Data were gathered using questionnaires and in-depth interviews. Analysis suggested that in both schools children's knowledge on the topic of matter increased after the play with younger children gaining more conceptual knowledge than their older peers. In the public school girls showed greater gains in conceptual knowledge than boys. No significant changes in students' general attitudes towards science were found, however, students demonstrated positive changes towards science learning. Theatrical elements that seemed to be important in children's recollection of the play were the narrative, props and stage effects, and characters. In the children's memory, science was intertwined with the theatrical elements. Nonetheless, children could distinguish well between scientific facts and the fictive narrative.
Novelty biases attention and gaze in a surprise trial.
Horstmann, Gernot; Herwig, Arvid
2016-01-01
While the classical distinction between task-driven and stimulus-driven biasing of attention appears to be a dichotomy at first sight, there seems to be a third category that depends on the contrast or discrepancy between active representations and the upcoming stimulus, and may be termed novelty, surprise, or prediction failure. For previous demonstrations of the discrepancy-attention link, stimulus-driven components (saliency) may have played a decisive role. The present study was conducted to evaluate the discrepancy-attention link in a display where novel and familiar stimuli are equated for saliency. Eye tracking was used to determine fixations on novel and familiar stimuli as a proxy for attention. Results show a prioritization of attention by the novel color, and a de-prioritization of the familiar color, which is clearly present at the second fixation, and spans over the next couple of fixations. Saliency, on the other hand, did not prioritize items in the display. The results thus reinforce the notion that novelty captures and binds attention.
A Well-Known But Still Surprising Generator
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haugland, Ole Anton
2014-12-01
The bicycle generator is often mentioned as an example of a method to produce electric energy. It is cheap and easily accessible, so it is a natural example to use in teaching. There are different types, but I prefer the old side-wall dynamo. The most common explanation of its working principle seems to be something like the illustration in Fig. 1. The illustration is taken from a popular textbook in the Norwegian junior high school.1 Typically it is explained as a system of a moving magnet or coils that directly results in a varying magnetic field through the coils. According to Faraday's law a voltage is induced in the coils. Simple and easy! A few times I have had a chance to glimpse into a bicycle generator, and I was somewhat surprised to sense that the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil. How could the flux through the coil change and induce a voltage when the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil? When teaching electromagnetic induction I have showed the students a dismantled generator and asked them how this could work. They naturally found that this was more difficult to understand than the principle illustrated in Fig. 1. Other authors in this journal have discussed even more challenging questions concerning electric generators.2,3
Surprising connections: the diverse world of magnetic resonance
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Callaghan, Paul
2004-10-01
When Rutherford discovered the atomic nucleus he could not possibly have imagined that it might be a window to understanding molecular biology, or how the brain works. And yet so it has come to pass. It is the through the magnetism of the nucleus that these insights, and so much more, are possible. The phenomenon of ``Nuclear Magnetic Resonance'' has proven an essential tool in physics, it has revolutionised chemistry and biochemistry, it has made astonishing contributions to medicine, and is now making an impact in geophysics, chemical engineering and food technology. It is even finding applications in new security technologies and in testing fundamental ideas concerning quantum computing. But the story of Magnetic Resonance is much more than the application of a well-established method to new areas of science. The technique itself continues to evolve. Magnetic Resonance has now garnered 6 Nobel prizes, two of them in the last two years. For a technique that has been around for nearly 60 years, it is really quite extraordinary that such accolades are still being given to new developments in the methodology. This talk will explain why the nuclear spin is so ubiquitous and interdisciplinary, and so rich in its fundamental physics. It will illustrate how unpredictable and surprising are the consequences of a major scientific discovery. For funding agencies determined to direct research activities towards predicted benefits, the conclusion drawn may provide a salutary lesson.
Small particles dominate Saturn's Phoebe ring to surprisingly large distances
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamilton, Douglas P.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Verbiscer, Anne J.; Masci, Frank J.
2015-06-01
Saturn's faint outermost ring, discovered in 2009 (ref. 1), is probably formed by particles ejected from the distant moon Phoebe. The ring was detected between distances of 128 and 207 Saturn radii (RS = 60,330 kilometres) from the planet, with a full vertical extent of 40RS, making it well over ten times larger than Saturn's hitherto largest known ring, the E ring. The total radial extent of the Phoebe ring could not, however, be determined at that time, nor could particle sizes be significantly constrained. Here we report infrared imaging of the entire ring, which extends from 100RS out to a surprisingly distant 270RS. We model the orbital dynamics of ring particles launched from Phoebe, and construct theoretical power-law profiles of the particle size distribution. We find that very steep profiles fit the data best, and that elevated grain temperatures, arising because of the radiative inefficiency of the smallest grains, probably contribute to the steepness. By converting our constraint on particle sizes into a form that is independent of the uncertain size distribution, we determine that particles with radii greater than ten centimetres, whose orbits do not decay appreciably inward over 4.5 billion years, contribute at most about ten per cent to the cross-sectional area of the ring's dusty component.
Tetrasomic Recombination Is Surprisingly Frequent in Allotetraploid Arachis
Leal-Bertioli, Soraya; Shirasawa, Kenta; Abernathy, Brian; Moretzsohn, Marcio; Chavarro, Carolina; Clevenger, Josh; Ozias-Akins, Peggy; Jackson, Scott; Bertioli, David
2015-01-01
Arachis hypogaea L. (cultivated peanut) is an allotetraploid (2n = 4x = 40) with an AABB genome type. Based on cytogenetic studies it has been assumed that peanut and wild-derived induced AABB allotetraploids have classic allotetraploid genetic behavior with diploid-like disomic recombination only between homologous chromosomes, at the exclusion of recombination between homeologous chromosomes. Using this assumption, numerous linkage map and quantitative trait loci studies have been carried out. Here, with a systematic analysis of genotyping and gene expression data, we show that this assumption is not entirely valid. In fact, autotetraploid-like tetrasomic recombination is surprisingly frequent in recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of cultivated peanut and an induced allotetraploid derived from peanut’s most probable ancestral species. We suggest that a better, more predictive genetic model for peanut is that of a “segmental allotetraploid” with partly disomic, partly tetrasomic genetic behavior. This intermediate genetic behavior has probably had a previously overseen, but significant, impact on the genome and genetics of cultivated peanut. PMID:25701284
Small particles dominate Saturn's Phoebe ring to surprisingly large distances.
Hamilton, Douglas P; Skrutskie, Michael F; Verbiscer, Anne J; Masci, Frank J
2015-06-11
Saturn's faint outermost ring, discovered in 2009 (ref. 1), is probably formed by particles ejected from the distant moon Phoebe. The ring was detected between distances of 128 and 207 Saturn radii (RS = 60,330 kilometres) from the planet, with a full vertical extent of 40RS, making it well over ten times larger than Saturn's hitherto largest known ring, the E ring. The total radial extent of the Phoebe ring could not, however, be determined at that time, nor could particle sizes be significantly constrained. Here we report infrared imaging of the entire ring, which extends from 100RS out to a surprisingly distant 270RS. We model the orbital dynamics of ring particles launched from Phoebe, and construct theoretical power-law profiles of the particle size distribution. We find that very steep profiles fit the data best, and that elevated grain temperatures, arising because of the radiative inefficiency of the smallest grains, probably contribute to the steepness. By converting our constraint on particle sizes into a form that is independent of the uncertain size distribution, we determine that particles with radii greater than ten centimetres, whose orbits do not decay appreciably inward over 4.5 billion years, contribute at most about ten per cent to the cross-sectional area of the ring's dusty component. PMID:26062508
Surprises From Genetic Analyses of Lipid Risk Factors for Atherosclerosis.
Musunuru, Kiran; Kathiresan, Sekar
2016-02-19
Observational epidemiological studies have associated plasma lipid concentrations with risk for coronary heart disease (CHD), but these studies cannot distinguish cause from mere correlation. Human genetic studies, when considered with the results of randomized controlled trials of medications, can potentially shed light on whether lipid biomarkers are causal for diseases. Genetic analyses and randomized trials suggest that low-density lipoprotein is causal for CHD, whereas high-density lipoprotein is not. Surprisingly, human genetic evidence suggests that lipoprotein(a) and triglyceride-rich lipoproteins causally contribute to CHD. Gene variants leading to higher levels of plasma apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins [low-density lipoprotein, triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, or lipoprotein(a)] consistently increase risk for CHD. For triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, the most compelling evidence revolves around lipoprotein lipase and its endogenous facilitator (APOA5 [apolipoprotein A-V]) and inhibitory proteins (APOC3 [apolipoprotein C-III], ANGPTL4 [angiopoietin like 4]). Combined, these genetic results anticipate that, beyond low-density lipoprotein, pharmacological lowering of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins or lipoprotein(a) will reduce risk for CHD, but this remains to be proven through randomized controlled trials.
Surprisingly Rapid Orbital Evolution: A Compendium of Solar Type Binaries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samec, Ronald George
2015-08-01
Solar type binaries are believed to be undergoing steady but slow angular momentum losses due to magnetic braking (Réville et al. 2015, Jiang et al. 2014) as stellar winds leave radially away on semi-rigid (out to the Alfvén radius) bipolar field lines: There is an outward radial flow of ions along the rotating magnetic fields. This is happening simultaneously as the gravitationally locked binary rotates about its center of mass. The stream of ions spiral outward resulting in a resistant torque, causing a decay in the orbital radius along with a period decrease due to Kepler’s laws. My past studies have included more than 25 binaries that appear to be undergoing magnetic braking. I have extended the number of systems to 75+ in this group by perusing the literature of modern precision synthetic light curve studies. Several interesting facts arise including their surprisingly rapid orbital evolution, much faster than would be suggested by the theory. Further results are presented in this study.
Tetrasomic recombination is surprisingly frequent in allotetraploid Arachis.
Leal-Bertioli, Soraya; Shirasawa, Kenta; Abernathy, Brian; Moretzsohn, Marcio; Chavarro, Carolina; Clevenger, Josh; Ozias-Akins, Peggy; Jackson, Scott; Bertioli, David
2015-04-01
Arachis hypogaea L. (cultivated peanut) is an allotetraploid (2n = 4x = 40) with an AABB genome type. Based on cytogenetic studies it has been assumed that peanut and wild-derived induced AABB allotetraploids have classic allotetraploid genetic behavior with diploid-like disomic recombination only between homologous chromosomes, at the exclusion of recombination between homeologous chromosomes. Using this assumption, numerous linkage map and quantitative trait loci studies have been carried out. Here, with a systematic analysis of genotyping and gene expression data, we show that this assumption is not entirely valid. In fact, autotetraploid-like tetrasomic recombination is surprisingly frequent in recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of cultivated peanut and an induced allotetraploid derived from peanut's most probable ancestral species. We suggest that a better, more predictive genetic model for peanut is that of a "segmental allotetraploid" with partly disomic, partly tetrasomic genetic behavior. This intermediate genetic behavior has probably had a previously overseen, but significant, impact on the genome and genetics of cultivated peanut.
Bayesian second law of thermodynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bartolotta, Anthony; Carroll, Sean M.; Leichenauer, Stefan; Pollack, Jason
2016-08-01
We derive a generalization of the second law of thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be updated by the measurement process, this formulation resolves a tension between the fact that the entropy of a statistical system can sometimes fluctuate downward and the information-theoretic idea that knowledge of a stochastically evolving system degrades over time. The Bayesian second law can be written as Δ H (ρm,ρ ) + F |m≥0 , where Δ H (ρm,ρ ) is the change in the cross entropy between the original phase-space probability distribution ρ and the measurement-updated distribution ρm and
F |m is the expectation value of a generalized heat flow out of the system. We also derive refined versions of the second law that bound the entropy increase from below by a non-negative number, as well as Bayesian versions of integral fluctuation theorems. We demonstrate the formalism using simple analytical and numerical examples.
Bayesian second law of thermodynamics.
Bartolotta, Anthony; Carroll, Sean M; Leichenauer, Stefan; Pollack, Jason
2016-08-01
We derive a generalization of the second law of thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be updated by the measurement process, this formulation resolves a tension between the fact that the entropy of a statistical system can sometimes fluctuate downward and the information-theoretic idea that knowledge of a stochastically evolving system degrades over time. The Bayesian second law can be written as ΔH(ρ_{m},ρ)+〈Q〉_{F|m}≥0, where ΔH(ρ_{m},ρ) is the change in the cross entropy between the original phase-space probability distribution ρ and the measurement-updated distribution ρ_{m} and 〈Q〉_{F|m} is the expectation value of a generalized heat flow out of the system. We also derive refined versions of the second law that bound the entropy increase from below by a non-negative number, as well as Bayesian versions of integral fluctuation theorems. We demonstrate the formalism using simple analytical and numerical examples. PMID:27627241
Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac
2014-03-01
Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.
Surprise disrupts cognition via a fronto-basal ganglia suppressive mechanism.
Wessel, Jan R; Jenkinson, Ned; Brittain, John-Stuart; Voets, Sarah H E M; Aziz, Tipu Z; Aron, Adam R
2016-04-18
Surprising events markedly affect behaviour and cognition, yet the underlying mechanism is unclear. Surprise recruits a brain mechanism that globally suppresses motor activity, ostensibly via the subthalamic nucleus (STN) of the basal ganglia. Here, we tested whether this suppressive mechanism extends beyond skeletomotor suppression and also affects cognition (here, verbal working memory, WM). We recorded scalp-EEG (electrophysiology) in healthy participants and STN local field potentials in Parkinson's patients during a task in which surprise disrupted WM. For scalp-EEG, surprising events engage the same independent neural signal component that indexes action stopping in a stop-signal task. Importantly, the degree of this recruitment mediates surprise-related WM decrements. Intracranially, STN activity is also increased post surprise, especially when WM is interrupted. These results suggest that surprise interrupts cognition via the same fronto-basal ganglia mechanism that interrupts action. This motivates a new neural theory of how cognition is interrupted, and how distraction arises after surprising events.
Bayesian optimal reconstruction of the primordial power spectrum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bridges, M.; Feroz, F.; Hobson, M. P.; Lasenby, A. N.
2009-12-01
The form of the primordial power spectrum has the potential to differentiate strongly between competing models of perturbation generation in the early universe and so is of considerable importance. The recent release of five years of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe observations have confirmed the general picture of the primordial power spectrum as deviating slightly from scale invariance with a spectral tilt parameter of ns ~ 0.96. None the less, many attempts have been made to isolate further features such as breaks and cut-offs using a variety of methods, some employing more than ~10 varying parameters. In this paper, we apply the robust technique of the Bayesian model selection to reconstruct the optimal degree of structure in the spectrum. We model the spectrum simply and generically as piecewise linear in lnk between `nodes' in k space whose amplitudes are allowed to vary. The number of nodes and their k-space positions are chosen by the Bayesian evidence so that we can identify both the complexity and location of any detected features. Our optimal reconstruction contains, perhaps, surprisingly few features, the data preferring just three nodes. This reconstruction allows for a degree of scale dependence of the tilt with the `turn-over' scale occurring around k ~ 0.016 Mpc-1. More structure is penalized by the evidence as overfitting the data, so there is currently little point in attempting reconstructions that are more complex.
Extreme dry spells: Problem of rounding and Bayesian solution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cindric Kalin, Ksenija; Pasaric, Zoran
2016-04-01
Two theoretically justified models of extremes are applied to dry spell (DS) series: The generalized Pareto distribution is applied to peak-over-threshold data (POT-GP), and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution is applied to the annual maxima (AM-GEV). DS data are categorized according to three precipitation-per-day thresholds (1, 5 and 10 mm). The well-known classical methods for parameter estimation (L-moments and Maximum Likelihood) are applied both to measured and to simulated DS time series. When applied within the GEV model, both methods yield very similar results. Somewhat surprisingly, in the case of the GP model, these methods lead to substantially different estimates of parameters, as well as return values. This is found to be a consequence of the fact that DS values are recorded discretely as a whole number of days, whereas the classical extreme value distributions are intended for continuous data. The inference is further evaluated within the Bayesian paradigm, where the process of rounding can be incorporated in a straightforward manner. The study confirmed precautionary estimations when applying the AM-GEV model in comparison with the simpler AM-Gumbel model. Regarding POT-GP modelling, the Bayesian approach reveals a high uncertainty that can occur in parameter estimations when very high thresholds are considered. It is found that there are no clear criteria in the assessment of some optimal threshold, nor is there a necessity for its detection. Instead, Bayesian inference provides a reasonable overall picture of the range of thresholds compatible with the GP-model. Furthermore, it is concluded that when using rounded data, all three GP parameters should be assessed. The location estimates should be compatible with the theoretical value of 0.5. Although the present study is performed mainly on the DS series from two stations in Croatia spanning the period of 1961-2010, the authors believe that the methodology developed here is applicable to
Mcl-1-Bim complexes accommodate surprising point mutations via minor structural changes
Fire, Emiko; Gullá, Stefano V.; Grant, Robert A.; Keating, Amy E.
2010-06-25
Mcl-1 is an antiapoptotic Bcl-2-family protein that protects cells against death. Structures of Mcl-1, and of other anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 proteins, reveal a surface groove into which the {alpha}-helical BH3 regions of certain proapoptotic proteins can bind. Despite high overall structural conservation, differences in this groove afford binding specificity that is important for the mechanism of Bcl-2 family function. We report the crystal structure of human Mcl-1 bound to a BH3 peptide derived from human Bim and the structures for three complexes that accommodate large physicochemical changes at conserved Bim sites. The mutations had surprisingly modest effects on complex stability, and the structures show that Mcl-1 can undergo small changes to accommodate the mutant ligands. For example, a shift in a leucine side chain fills a hole left by an isoleucine-to-alanine mutation at the first hydrophobic buried position of Bim BH3. Larger changes are also observed, with shifting of helix {alpha}3 accommodating an isoleucine-to-tyrosine mutation at this same position. We surveyed the variation in available Mcl-1 and Bcl-x{sub L} structures and observed moderate flexibility that is likely critical for facilitating interactions of diverse BH3-only proteins with Mcl-1. With the antiapoptotic Bcl-2 family members attracting significant attention as therapeutic targets, these structures contribute to our growing understanding of how specificity is achieved and can help to guide the design of novel inhibitors that target Mcl-1.
Selective nitration and bromination of surprisingly ruffled phosphorus corroles.
Pomarico, Giuseppe; Tortora, Luca; Fronczek, Frank R; Smith, Kevin M; Paolesse, Roberto
2016-05-01
Phosphorus complexes of corrole have recently attracted increasing interest since these compounds can be easily prepared in good yields, are stable, and show unusual optical properties. For these reasons, phosphorus corroles represent a class of interesting compounds to be exploited in the field of material science or for biomedical investigations and the definition of synthetic pathways for their functionalization is an important step to optimize their properties for various applications. We report here the reactivity of the phosphorus complex of 5,10,15-tritolylcorrole in the nitration or bromination reaction. Both these attempts were successful, allowing the preparation of substituted phosphorus corroles, which can be used as intermediates of more complex architectures endowed with useful properties. Furthermore, the crystallographic characterization of both complexes shows that they have an unusual ruffled geometry of the corrole core, a conformation that has not been considered possible for such a macrocycle.
Increased or Reversed? The Effect of Surprise on Hindsight Bias Depends on the Hindsight Component
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nestler, Steffen; Egloff, Boris
2009-01-01
Two diverging hypotheses concerning the influence of surprising events on hindsight effects have been proposed: Although some authors believe that surprising events lead to a reversal of hindsight bias, others have proposed that surprise increases hindsight bias. Drawing on the separate-components view of the hindsight bias (which argues that…
Human amygdala response to dynamic facial expressions of positive and negative surprise.
Vrticka, Pascal; Lordier, Lara; Bediou, Benoît; Sander, David
2014-02-01
Although brain imaging evidence accumulates to suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in the processing of novel stimuli, only little is known about its role in processing expressed novelty conveyed by surprised faces, and even less about possible interactive encoding of novelty and valence. Those investigations that have already probed human amygdala involvement in the processing of surprised facial expressions either used static pictures displaying negative surprise (as contained in fear) or "neutral" surprise, and manipulated valence by contextually priming or subjectively associating static surprise with either negative or positive information. Therefore, it still remains unresolved how the human amygdala differentially processes dynamic surprised facial expressions displaying either positive or negative surprise. Here, we created new artificial dynamic 3-dimensional facial expressions conveying surprise with an intrinsic positive (wonderment) or negative (fear) connotation, but also intrinsic positive (joy) or negative (anxiety) emotions not containing any surprise, in addition to neutral facial displays either containing ("typical surprise" expression) or not containing ("neutral") surprise. Results showed heightened amygdala activity to faces containing positive (vs. negative) surprise, which may either correspond to a specific wonderment effect as such, or to the computation of a negative expected value prediction error. Findings are discussed in the light of data obtained from a closely matched nonsocial lottery task, which revealed overlapping activity within the left amygdala to unexpected positive outcomes. PMID:24219397
Variational bayesian method of estimating variance components.
Arakawa, Aisaku; Taniguchi, Masaaki; Hayashi, Takeshi; Mikawa, Satoshi
2016-07-01
We developed a Bayesian analysis approach by using a variational inference method, a so-called variational Bayesian method, to determine the posterior distributions of variance components. This variational Bayesian method and an alternative Bayesian method using Gibbs sampling were compared in estimating genetic and residual variance components from both simulated data and publically available real pig data. In the simulated data set, we observed strong bias toward overestimation of genetic variance for the variational Bayesian method in the case of low heritability and low population size, and less bias was detected with larger population sizes in both methods examined. The differences in the estimates of variance components between the variational Bayesian and the Gibbs sampling were not found in the real pig data. However, the posterior distributions of the variance components obtained with the variational Bayesian method had shorter tails than those obtained with the Gibbs sampling. Consequently, the posterior standard deviations of the genetic and residual variances of the variational Bayesian method were lower than those of the method using Gibbs sampling. The computing time required was much shorter with the variational Bayesian method than with the method using Gibbs sampling.
The Bayesian Reader: Explaining Word Recognition as an Optimal Bayesian Decision Process
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Norris, Dennis
2006-01-01
This article presents a theory of visual word recognition that assumes that, in the tasks of word identification, lexical decision, and semantic categorization, human readers behave as optimal Bayesian decision makers. This leads to the development of a computational model of word recognition, the Bayesian reader. The Bayesian reader successfully…
Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature.
Biedermann, A; Taroni, F
2012-03-01
Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.
Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature.
Biedermann, A; Taroni, F
2012-03-01
Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation. PMID:21775236
Molecular attraction of condensed bodies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Derjaguin, B. V.; Abrikosova, I. I.; Lifshitz, E. M.
2015-09-01
From the Editorial Board. As a contribution to commemorating the 100th anniversary of the birth of Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz, it was found appropriate by the Editorial Board of Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk (UFN) [Physics-Uspekhi] journal that the materials of the jubilee-associated Scientific Session of the Physical Sciences Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences published in this issue (pp. 877-905) be augmented by the review paper "Molecular attraction of condensed bodies" reproduced from a 1958 UFN issue. Included in this review, in addition to an account by Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz of his theory of molecular attractive forces between condensed bodies (first published in Zhurnal Eksperimental'noi i Teoreticheskoi Fiziki (ZhETF) in 1955 and in its English translation Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Physics (JETP) in 1956), is a summary of a series of experimental studies beginning in 1949 by Irina Igorevna Abrikosova at the Institute of Physical Chemistry of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR in a laboratory led by Boris Vladimirovich Derjaguin (1902-1994), a Corresponding Member of the USSR Academy of Sciences. In 1958, however, UFN was not yet available in English translation, so the material of the review is insufficiently accessible to the present-day English-speaking reader. This is the reason why the UFN Editorial Board decided to contribute to celebrating the 100th anniversary of E M Lifshitz's birthday by reproducing on the journal's pages a 1958 review paper which contains both E M Lifshitz's theory itself and the experimental data that underpinned it (for an account of how Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz was enlisted to explain the experimental results of I I Abrikosova and B V Derjaguin, see the letter to the editors N P Danilova on page 925 of this jubilee collection of publications).
AO 0235+164 and Surrounding Field: Surprising HST Results
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Burbidge, E. M.; Beaver, E. A.; Cohen, Ross D.; Junkkarinen, V. T.; Lyons, R. W.
1996-01-01
Results obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope on the highly variable radio, x-ray, and gamma-ray emitting QSO (or BL Lac object) AO 0235 + 164 are presented and analyzed. WFPC2 images were obtained in 1994 June, when AO 0235 + 164 was bright (m approx. 17), and the results are described in Sec. 3. After subtraction of the PSF of the QSO, hereafter called AO following the nomenclature of Yanny et al. (1989), the companion object named A, 2 sec south of AO, is discovered not to be an elliptical galaxy as hypothesized earlier, but to be an AGN object, with a central UV-bright point-source nucleus and faint surrounding nebulosity extending to AO. The second companion object 1.3 sec east of AO discovered by Yanny et al. (1989) and named object Al, appears more like a normal spiral galaxy. We have measured the positions, luminosities, and colors of some 30 faint objects in the field around AO 0235 + 16; most are extended and may be star-forming galaxies in a loose group or cluster. Our most surprising result of the HST observations comes from FOS spectra obtained in 1995 July, discussed in Sec. 4. Because of a positioning error of the telescope and AO's faintness at that time (m approx. 20), object A was observed instead of the intended target AO. Serendipitously, we discovered A to have broad deep BALQSO-type absorptions of C IV, Si IV, N V shortward of broad emissions. A is thus ejecting high velocity, highly ionized gas into the surrounding IGM. We discuss in Sec. 5 the relationship of the objects in the central 10 sec X 1O sec region around AO, where redshifts z(sub e) = 0.94, z(sub a) = 0.524, 0.851 in AO, (sub e) = 0.524 and Z(sub BAL)=0.511 in A, are found. We hypothesize that some of the 30 faint objects in the 77 sec. x 77 sec. field may be part of a large star-forming region at z approx. 0.5, as suggested for a few objects by Yanny et al. (1989). The proximity of two highly active extragalactic objects, AO 0235+164 and its AGN companion A, is remarkable and
Bayesian regularization of neural networks.
Burden, Frank; Winkler, Dave
2008-01-01
Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANNs) are more robust than standard back-propagation nets and can reduce or eliminate the need for lengthy cross-validation. Bayesian regularization is a mathematical process that converts a nonlinear regression into a "well-posed" statistical problem in the manner of a ridge regression. The advantage of BRANNs is that the models are robust and the validation process, which scales as O(N2) in normal regression methods, such as back propagation, is unnecessary. These networks provide solutions to a number of problems that arise in QSAR modeling, such as choice of model, robustness of model, choice of validation set, size of validation effort, and optimization of network architecture. They are difficult to overtrain, since evidence procedures provide an objective Bayesian criterion for stopping training. They are also difficult to overfit, because the BRANN calculates and trains on a number of effective network parameters or weights, effectively turning off those that are not relevant. This effective number is usually considerably smaller than the number of weights in a standard fully connected back-propagation neural net. Automatic relevance determination (ARD) of the input variables can be used with BRANNs, and this allows the network to "estimate" the importance of each input. The ARD method ensures that irrelevant or highly correlated indices used in the modeling are neglected as well as showing which are the most important variables for modeling the activity data. This chapter outlines the equations that define the BRANN method plus a flowchart for producing a BRANN-QSAR model. Some results of the use of BRANNs on a number of data sets are illustrated and compared with other linear and nonlinear models.
Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Campbell, John
2009-12-01
Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.
Stars Form Surprisingly Close to Milky Way's Black Hole
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2005-10-01
The supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way has surprisingly helped spawn a new generation of stars, according to observations from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory. This novel mode of star formation may solve several mysteries about the supermassive black holes that reside at the centers of nearly all galaxies. "Massive black holes are usually known for violence and destruction," said Sergei Nayakshin of the University of Leicester, United Kingdom, and coauthor of a paper on this research in an upcoming issue of the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. "So it's remarkable that this black hole helped create new stars, not just destroy them." Black holes have earned their fearsome reputation because any material -- including stars -- that falls within the so-called event horizon is never seen again. However, these new results indicate that the immense disks of gas known to orbit many black holes at a "safe" distance from the event horizon can help nurture the formation of new stars. Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole This conclusion came from new clues that could only be revealed in X-rays. Until the latest Chandra results, astronomers have disagreed about the origin of a mysterious group of massive stars discovered by infrared astronomers to be orbiting less than a light year from the Milky Way's central black hole, a.k.a. Sagittarius A*, or Sgr A*. At such close distances to Sgr A*, the standard model for star formation predicts that gas clouds from which stars form should have been ripped apart by tidal forces from the black hole. Two models to explain this puzzle have been proposed. In the disk model, the gravity of a dense disk of gas around Sgr A* offsets the tidal forces and allows stars to form; in the migration model, the stars formed in a star cluster far away from the black hole and migrated in to form the ring of massive stars. The migration scenario predicts about a
Voxelwise Bayesian Lesion Deficit Analysis
Chen, Rong; Hillis, Argye E.; Pawlak, Mikolaj; Herskovits, Edward H
2008-01-01
Relating cognitive deficits to the presence of lesions has been an important means of delineating structure-function associations in the human brain. We propose a voxel-based Bayesian method for lesion-deficit analysis, which identifies complex linear or nonlinear associations among brain-lesion locations, and neurological status. We validated this method using a simulated data set, and we applied this algorithm to data obtained from an acute-stroke study to identify associations among voxels with infarct or hypoperfusion, and impaired word reading. We found that a distributed region involving Brodmann areas (BA) 22, 37, 39, and 40 was implicated in word reading. PMID:18328733
Software For Multivariate Bayesian Classification
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Saul, Ronald; Laird, Philip; Shelton, Robert
1996-01-01
PHD general-purpose classifier computer program. Uses Bayesian methods to classify vectors of real numbers, based on combination of statistical techniques that include multivariate density estimation, Parzen density kernels, and EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm. By means of simple graphical interface, user trains classifier to recognize two or more classes of data and then use it to identify new data. Written in ANSI C for Unix systems and optimized for online classification applications. Embedded in another program, or runs by itself using simple graphical-user-interface. Online help files makes program easy to use.
A Bayesian network for mammography.
Burnside, E.; Rubin, D.; Shachter, R.
2000-01-01
The interpretation of a mammogram and decisions based on it involve reasoning and management of uncertainty. The wide variation of training and practice among radiologists results in significant variability in screening performance with attendant cost and efficacy consequences. We have created a Bayesian belief network to integrate the findings on a mammogram, based on the standardized lexicon developed for mammography, the Breast Imaging Reporting And Data System (BI-RADS). Our goal in creating this network is to explore the probabilistic underpinnings of this lexicon as well as standardize mammographic decision-making to the level of expert knowledge. PMID:11079854
Interpersonal Congruency, Attitude Similarity, and Interpersonal Attraction
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Touhey, John C.
1975-01-01
As no experimental study has examined the effects of congruency on attraction, the present investigation orthogonally varied attitude similarity and interpersonal congruency in order to compare the two independent variables as determinants of interpersonal attraction. (Author/RK)
The Attractive and Repulsive Gauche Effects.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Juaristi, Eusebio
1979-01-01
Reviews published material on conformational behavior in 1,2-disubstituted frameworks regulated by steric and polar factors and attractive and repulsive gauche effects. Reports on attraction in systems with small and strongly electronegative atoms. Suggests that cause is dominant nuclear-electron attraction between atoms or groups. (Author/SA)
Attribution, the Attractiveness Stereotype, and the Elderly.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Johnson, Douglas F.; Pittenger, John B.
1984-01-01
Tests the applicability of the physical attractiveness stereotype to perceptions of the elderly. In the first study, college-age and elderly observers rated the attractiveness of faces of elderly people. In the second study, subjects rated faces at three levels of attractiveness on personality, success in life experiences, and occupational…
Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Levy, Roy
2016-01-01
In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…
Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wheeler, Kevin R.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Castle, Joseph P.; Lvov, Nikolay
2005-01-01
The following concepts were introduced: a) Bayesian adaptive sampling for solving biomass estimation; b) Characterization of MISR Rahman model parameters conditioned upon MODIS landcover. c) Rigorous non-parametric Bayesian approach to analytic mixture model determination. d) Unique U.S. asset for science product validation and verification.
Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego
2007-01-01
This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…
The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Shultz, Thomas R.
2007-01-01
This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…
Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chen, Mo
2011-01-01
In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…
Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra
2013-01-01
In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…
van Osch, Yvette; Blanken, Irene; Meijs, Maartje H J; van Wolferen, Job
2015-04-01
We tested whether the perceived physical attractiveness of a group is greater than the average attractiveness of its members. In nine studies, we find evidence for the so-called group attractiveness effect (GA-effect), using female, male, and mixed-gender groups, indicating that group impressions of physical attractiveness are more positive than the average ratings of the group members. A meta-analysis on 33 comparisons reveals that the effect is medium to large (Cohen's d = 0.60) and moderated by group size. We explored two explanations for the GA-effect: (a) selective attention to attractive group members, and (b) the Gestalt principle of similarity. The results of our studies are in favor of the selective attention account: People selectively attend to the most attractive members of a group and their attractiveness has a greater influence on the evaluation of the group.
Carbon Dioxide: Surprising Effects on Decision Making and Neurocognitive Performance
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
James, John T.
2013-01-01
The occupants of modern submarines and the International Space Station (ISS) have much in common as far as their air quality is concerned. Air is polluted by materials offgassing, use of utility compounds, leaks of systems chemicals, and anthropogenic sources. The primary anthropogenic compound of concern to submariners and astronauts has been carbon dioxide (CO2). NASA and the US Navy rely on the National Research Council Committee on Toxicology (NRC-COT) to help formulate exposure levels to CO2 that are thought to be safe for exposures of 3-6 months. NASA calls its limits Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs). Years of experience aboard the ISS and a recent publication on deficits in decision making in ground-based subjects exposed briefly to 0.25% CO2 suggest that exposure levels that have been presumed acceptable to preserve health and performance need to be reevaluated. The current CO2 exposure limits for 3-6 months set by NASA and the UK Navy are 0.7%, and the limit for US submariners is 0.5%, although the NRC-COT recommended a 90-day level of 0.8% as safe a few years ago. NASA has set a 1000-day SMAC at 0.5% for exploration-class missions. Anecdotal experience with ISS operations approaching the current 180-day SMAC of 0.7% suggest that this limit is too high. Temporarily, NASA has limited exposures to 0.5% until further peer-reviewed data become available. In the meantime, a study published last year in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives (Satish U, et al. 2012) demonstrated that complexdecision- making performance is somewhat affected at 0.1% CO2 and becomes "dysfunctional" for at least half of the 9 indices of performance at concentrations approaching 0.25% CO2. The investigators used the Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) method of testing for decisionmaking ability, and the results were so surprising to the investigators that they declared that their findings need to be independently confirmed. NASA has responded to the
Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kossobokov, Vladimir
2013-04-01
Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a
Eruption Forecasting: Success and Surprise at Kasatochi and Okmok Volcanoes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prejean, S.; Power, J.; Brodsky, E.
2008-12-01
seismic network on Kasatochi Island. Unlike Kasatochi, Okmok volcano, also located in the central Aleutian Islands, hosts 13 telemetered seismic stations and several telemetered GPS stations. The volcano has received considerable study by AVO, and the record of historical eruptions is well known. Despite regular scrutiny of Okmok data, the 2008 eruption was a surprise as there were fewer than 3 hours of clear pre-eruptive seismicity. The color code/alert level at Okmok went directly from Green/Normal to Red/Warning on July 12 after eruptive activity began. Interpretation of co-eruptive seismicity remained a challenge through the course of the eruption as bursts of volcanic tremor often did not correlate immediately with ash output at the vent as observed in satellite data.
Estimating Bayesian Phylogenetic Information Content
Lewis, Paul O.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Louise A.; Fučíková, Karolina; Neupane, Suman; Wang, Yu-Bo; Shi, Daoyuan
2016-01-01
Measuring the phylogenetic information content of data has a long history in systematics. Here we explore a Bayesian approach to information content estimation. The entropy of the posterior distribution compared with the entropy of the prior distribution provides a natural way to measure information content. If the data have no information relevant to ranking tree topologies beyond the information supplied by the prior, the posterior and prior will be identical. Information in data discourages consideration of some hypotheses allowed by the prior, resulting in a posterior distribution that is more concentrated (has lower entropy) than the prior. We focus on measuring information about tree topology using marginal posterior distributions of tree topologies. We show that both the accuracy and the computational efficiency of topological information content estimation improve with use of the conditional clade distribution, which also allows topological information content to be partitioned by clade. We explore two important applications of our method: providing a compelling definition of saturation and detecting conflict among data partitions that can negatively affect analyses of concatenated data. [Bayesian; concatenation; conditional clade distribution; entropy; information; phylogenetics; saturation.] PMID:27155008
Attracting Girls into Physics (abstract)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gadalla, Afaf
2009-04-01
A recent international study of women in physics showed that enrollment in physics and science is declining for both males and females and that women are severely underrepresented in careers requiring a strong physics background. The gender gap begins early in the pipeline, from the first grade. Girls are treated differently than boys at home and in society in ways that often hinder their chances for success. They have fewer freedoms, are discouraged from accessing resources or being adventurous, have far less exposure to problem solving, and are not encouraged to choose their lives. In order to motivate more girl students to study physics in the Assiut governorate of Egypt, the Assiut Alliance for the Women and Assiut Education District collaborated in renovating the education of physics in middle and secondary school classrooms. A program that helps in increasing the number of girls in science and physics has been designed in which informal groupings are organized at middle and secondary schools to involve girls in the training and experiences needed to attract and encourage girls to learn physics. During implementation of the program at some schools, girls, because they had not been trained in problem-solving as boys, appeared not to be as facile in abstracting the ideas of physics, and that was the primary reason for girls dropping out of science and physics. This could be overcome by holding a topical physics and technology summer school under the supervision of the Assiut Alliance for the Women.
Surprise Discovery of Highly Developed Structure in the Young Universe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2005-03-01
ESO-VLT and ESA XMM-Newton Together Discover Earliest Massive Cluster of Galaxies Known Summary Combining observations with ESO's Very Large Telescope and ESA's XMM-Newton X-ray observatory, astronomers have discovered the most distant, very massive structure in the Universe known so far. It is a remote cluster of galaxies that is found to weigh as much as several thousand galaxies like our own Milky Way and is located no less than 9,000 million light-years away. The VLT images reveal that it contains reddish and elliptical, i.e. old, galaxies. Interestingly, the cluster itself appears to be in a very advanced state of development. It must therefore have formed when the Universe was less than one third of its present age. The discovery of such a complex and mature structure so early in the history of the Universe is highly surprising. Indeed, until recently it would even have been deemed impossible. PR Photo 05a/05: Discovery X-Ray Image of the Distant Cluster (ESA XMM-Netwon) PR Photo 05b/05: False Colour Image of XMMU J2235.3-2557 (FORS/VLT and ESA XMM-Newton) Serendipitous discovery ESO PR Photo 05a/05 ESO PR Photo 05a/05 Discovery X-Ray Image of the Distant Cluster (ESA XMM-Newton) [Preview - JPEG: 400 x 421 pix - 106k] [Normal - JPEG: 800 x 842 pix - 843k] [Full Res - JPEG: 2149 x 2262 pix - 2.5M] Caption: ESO PR Photo 05a/05 is a reproduction of the XMM-Newton observations of the nearby active galaxy NGC7314 (bright object in the centre) from which the newly found distant cluster (white box) was serendipitously identified. The circular field-of-view of XMM-Newton is half-a-degree in diameter, or about the same angular size as the Full Moon. The inset shows the diffuse X-ray emission from the distant cluster XMMU J2235.3-2557. Clusters of galaxies are gigantic structures containing hundreds to thousands of galaxies. They are the fundamental building blocks of the Universe and their study thus provides unique information about the underlying architecture of the
A statistical model of facial attractiveness.
Said, Christopher P; Todorov, Alexander
2011-09-01
Previous research has identified facial averageness and sexual dimorphism as important factors in facial attractiveness. The averageness and sexual dimorphism accounts provide important first steps in understanding what makes faces attractive, and should be valued for their parsimony. However, we show that they explain relatively little of the variance in facial attractiveness, particularly for male faces. As an alternative to these accounts, we built a regression model that defines attractiveness as a function of a face's position in a multidimensional face space. The model provides much more predictive power than the averageness and sexual dimorphism accounts and reveals previously unreported components of attractiveness. The model shows that averageness is attractive in some dimensions but not in others and resolves previous contradictory reports about the effects of sexual dimorphism on the attractiveness of male faces.
Effects of Instructor Attractiveness on Learning.
Westfall, Richard; Millar, Murray; Walsh, Mandy
2016-01-01
Although a considerable body of research has examined the impact of student attractiveness on instructors, little attention has been given to the influence of instructor attractiveness on students. This study tested the hypothesis that persons would perform significantly better on a learning task when they perceived their instructor to be high in physical attractiveness. To test the hypothesis, participants listened to an audio lecture while viewing a photograph of instructor. The photograph depicted either a physically attractive instructor or a less attractive instructor. Following the lecture, participants completed a forced choice recognition task covering material from the lecture. Consistent with the predictions; attractive instructors were associated with more learning. Finally, we replicated previous findings demonstrating the role attractiveness plays in person perception. PMID:27410051
Lü, Fan; Bize, Ariane; Guillot, Alain; Monnet, Véronique; Madigou, Céline; Chapleur, Olivier; Mazéas, Laurent; He, Pinjing; Bouchez, Théodore
2014-01-01
Cellulose is the most abundant biopolymer on Earth. Optimising energy recovery from this renewable but recalcitrant material is a key issue. The metaproteome expressed by thermophilic communities during cellulose anaerobic digestion was investigated in microcosms. By multiplying the analytical replicates (65 protein fractions analysed by MS/MS) and relying solely on public protein databases, more than 500 non-redundant protein functions were identified. The taxonomic community structure as inferred from the metaproteomic data set was in good overall agreement with 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing and fluorescent in situ hybridisation analyses. Numerous functions related to cellulose and hemicellulose hydrolysis and fermentation catalysed by bacteria related to Caldicellulosiruptor spp. and Clostridium thermocellum were retrieved, indicating their key role in the cellulose-degradation process and also suggesting their complementary action. Despite the abundance of acetate as a major fermentation product, key methanogenesis enzymes from the acetoclastic pathway were not detected. In contrast, enzymes from the hydrogenotrophic pathway affiliated to Methanothermobacter were almost exclusively identified for methanogenesis, suggesting a syntrophic acetate oxidation process coupled to hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Isotopic analyses confirmed the high dominance of the hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Very surprising was the identification of an abundant proteolytic activity from Coprothermobacter proteolyticus strains, probably acting as scavenger and/or predator performing proteolysis and fermentation. Metaproteomics thus appeared as an efficient tool to unravel and characterise metabolic networks as well as ecological interactions during methanisation bioprocesses. More generally, metaproteomics provides direct functional insights at a limited cost, and its attractiveness should increase in the future as sequence databases are growing exponentially. PMID:23949661
Lü, Fan; Bize, Ariane; Guillot, Alain; Monnet, Véronique; Madigou, Céline; Chapleur, Olivier; Mazéas, Laurent; He, Pinjing; Bouchez, Théodore
2014-01-01
Cellulose is the most abundant biopolymer on Earth. Optimising energy recovery from this renewable but recalcitrant material is a key issue. The metaproteome expressed by thermophilic communities during cellulose anaerobic digestion was investigated in microcosms. By multiplying the analytical replicates (65 protein fractions analysed by MS/MS) and relying solely on public protein databases, more than 500 non-redundant protein functions were identified. The taxonomic community structure as inferred from the metaproteomic data set was in good overall agreement with 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing and fluorescent in situ hybridisation analyses. Numerous functions related to cellulose and hemicellulose hydrolysis and fermentation catalysed by bacteria related to Caldicellulosiruptor spp. and Clostridium thermocellum were retrieved, indicating their key role in the cellulose-degradation process and also suggesting their complementary action. Despite the abundance of acetate as a major fermentation product, key methanogenesis enzymes from the acetoclastic pathway were not detected. In contrast, enzymes from the hydrogenotrophic pathway affiliated to Methanothermobacter were almost exclusively identified for methanogenesis, suggesting a syntrophic acetate oxidation process coupled to hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Isotopic analyses confirmed the high dominance of the hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Very surprising was the identification of an abundant proteolytic activity from Coprothermobacter proteolyticus strains, probably acting as scavenger and/or predator performing proteolysis and fermentation. Metaproteomics thus appeared as an efficient tool to unravel and characterise metabolic networks as well as ecological interactions during methanisation bioprocesses. More generally, metaproteomics provides direct functional insights at a limited cost, and its attractiveness should increase in the future as sequence databases are growing exponentially. PMID:23949661
Park, Gewnhi; Vasey, Michael W.; Kim, Grace; Hu, Dixie D.; Thayer, Julian F.
2016-01-01
The current research examines whether trait anxiety is associated with negative interpretation bias when resolving valence ambiguity of surprised faces. To further isolate the neuro-cognitive mechanism, we presented angry, happy, and surprised faces at broad spatial frequency (BSF), high spatial frequency (HSF), and low spatial frequency (LSF) and asked participants to determine the valence of each face. High trait anxiety was associated with more negative interpretations of BSF (i.e., intact) surprised faces. However, the modulation of trait anxiety on the negative interpretation of surprised faces disappeared at HSF and LSF. The current study provides evidence that trait anxiety modulates negative interpretations of BSF surprised faces. However, the negative interpretation of LSF surprised faces appears to be a robust default response that occurs regardless of individual differences in trait anxiety. PMID:27536266
Supermagnetic Neutron Star Surprises Scientists, Forces Revision of Theories
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2006-08-01
magnetars because their magnetic fields are 100-1,000 times stronger than those of typical pulsars. It is the decay of those incredibly strong fields that powers their strange X-ray emission. "The magnetic field from a magnetar would make an aircraft carrier spin around and point north quicker than a compass needle moves on Earth," said David Helfand, of Columbia University. A magnetar's field is 1,000 trillion times stronger than Earth's, Helfand pointed out. The new object -- named XTE J1810-197 -- was first discovered by NASA's Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer when it emitted a strong burst of X-rays in 2003. While the X-rays were fading in 2004, Jules Halpern of Columbia University and collaborators identified the magnetar as a radio-wave emitter using the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope in New Mexico. Any radio emission is highly unusual for a magnetar. Because magnetars had not been seen to regularly emit radio waves, the scientists presumed that the radio emission was caused by a cloud of particles thrown off the neutron star at the time of its X-ray outburst, an idea they soon would realize was wrong. With knowledge that the magnetar emitted some form of radio waves, Camilo and his colleagues observed it with the Parkes radio telescope in Australia in March and immediately detected astonishingly strong radio pulsations every 5.5 seconds, corresponding to the previously-determined rotation rate of the neutron star. As they continued to observe XTE J1810-197, the scientists got more surprises. Whereas most pulsars become weaker at higher radio frequencies, XTE J1810-197 does not, remaining a strong emitter at frequencies up to 140 GHz, the highest frequency ever detected from a radio pulsar. In addition, unlike normal pulsars, the object's radio emission fluctuates in strength from day to day, and the shape of the pulsations changes as well. These variations likely indicate that the magnetic fields around the pulsar are changing
Chandra Finds Surprising Black Hole Activity In Galaxy Cluster
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2002-09-01
Scientists at the Carnegie Observatories in Pasadena, California, have uncovered six times the expected number of active, supermassive black holes in a single viewing of a cluster of galaxies, a finding that has profound implications for theories as to how old galaxies fuel the growth of their central black holes. The finding suggests that voracious, central black holes might be as common in old, red galaxies as they are in younger, blue galaxies, a surprise to many astronomers. The team made this discovery with NASA'S Chandra X-ray Observatory. They also used Carnegie's 6.5-meter Walter Baade Telescope at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile for follow-up optical observations. "This changes our view of galaxy clusters as the retirement homes for old and quiet black holes," said Dr. Paul Martini, lead author on a paper describing the results that appears in the September 10 issue of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. "The question now is, how do these black holes produce bright X-ray sources, similar to what we see from much younger galaxies?" Typical of the black hole phenomenon, the cores of these active galaxies are luminous in X-ray radiation. Yet, they are obscured, and thus essentially undetectable in the radio, infrared and optical wavebands. "X rays can penetrate obscuring gas and dust as easily as they penetrate the soft tissue of the human body to look for broken bones," said co-author Dr. Dan Kelson. "So, with Chandra, we can peer through the dust and we have found that even ancient galaxies with 10-billion-year-old stars can have central black holes still actively pulling in copious amounts of interstellar gas. This activity has simply been hidden from us all this time. This means these galaxies aren't over the hill after all and our theories need to be revised." Scientists say that supermassive black holes -- having the mass of millions to billions of suns squeezed into a region about the size of our Solar System -- are the engines in the cores of
Miscalibrations in judgements of attractiveness with cosmetics.
Jones, Alex L; Kramer, Robin S S; Ward, Robert
2014-10-01
Women use cosmetics to enhance their attractiveness. How successful they are in doing so remains unknown--how do men and women respond to cosmetics use in terms of attractiveness? There are a variety of miscalibrations where attractiveness is concerned--often, what one sex thinks the opposite sex finds attractive is incorrect. Here, we investigated observer perceptions about attractiveness and cosmetics, as well as their understanding of what others would find attractive. We used computer graphic techniques to allow observers to vary the amount of cosmetics applied to a series of female faces. We asked observers to optimize attractiveness for themselves, for what they thought women in general would prefer, and what they thought men in general would prefer. We found that men and women agree on the amount of cosmetics they find attractive, but overestimate the preferences of women and, when considering the preferences of men, overestimate even more. We also find that models' self-applied cosmetics are far in excess of individual preferences. These findings suggest that attractiveness perceptions with cosmetics are a form of pluralistic ignorance, whereby women tailor their cosmetics use to an inaccurate perception of others' preferences. These findings also highlight further miscalibrations of attractiveness ideals.
Bayesian Networks for Social Modeling
Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Brothers, Alan J.
2011-03-28
This paper describes a body of work developed over the past five years. The work addresses the use of Bayesian network (BN) models for representing and predicting social/organizational behaviors. The topics covered include model construction, validation, and use. These topics show the bulk of the lifetime of such model, beginning with construction, moving to validation and other aspects of model ‘critiquing’, and finally demonstrating how the modeling approach might be used to inform policy analysis. To conclude, we discuss limitations of using BN for this activity and suggest remedies to address those limitations. The primary benefits of using a well-developed computational, mathematical, and statistical modeling structure, such as BN, are 1) there are significant computational, theoretical and capability bases on which to build 2) ability to empirically critique the model, and potentially evaluate competing models for a social/behavioral phenomena.
Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts
Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B.
2011-01-01
Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online. PMID:22523437
Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.
Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B
2011-12-01
Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online. PMID:22523437
Facial aesthetics: babies prefer attractiveness to symmetry.
Samuels, C A; Butterworth, G; Roberts, T; Graupner, L; Hole, G
1994-01-01
The visual preferences of human infants for faces that varied in their attractiveness and in their symmetry about the midline were explored. The aim was to establish whether infants' visual preference for attractive faces may be mediated by the vertical symmetry of the face. Chimeric faces, made from photographs of attractive and unattractive female faces, were produced by computer graphics. Babies looked longer at normal and at chimeric attractive faces than at normal and at chimeric unattractive faces. There were no developmental differences between the younger and older infants: all preferred to look at the attractive faces. Infants as young as 4 months showed similarity with adults in the 'aesthetic perception' of attractiveness and this preference was not based on the vertical symmetry of the face. PMID:7845772
Facial aesthetics: babies prefer attractiveness to symmetry.
Samuels, Curtis A; Butterworth, George; Roberts, Tony; Graupner, Lida; Hole, Graham
2013-01-01
The visual preferences of human infants for faces that varied in their attractiveness and in their symmetry about the midline were explored. The aim was to establish whether infants' visual preference for attractive faces may be mediated by the vertical symmetry of the face. Chimeric faces, made from photographs of attractive and unattractive female faces, were produced by computer graphics. Babies looked longer at normal and at chimeric attractive faces than at normal and at chimeric unattractive faces. There were no developmental differences between the younger and older infants: all preferred to look at the attractive faces. Infants as young as 4 months showed similarity with adults in the 'aesthetic perception' of attractiveness and this preference was not based on the vertical symmetry of the face. PMID:24601036
Facial aesthetics: babies prefer attractiveness to symmetry.
Samuels, Curtis A; Butterworth, George; Roberts, Tony; Graupner, Lida; Hole, Graham
2013-01-01
The visual preferences of human infants for faces that varied in their attractiveness and in their symmetry about the midline were explored. The aim was to establish whether infants' visual preference for attractive faces may be mediated by the vertical symmetry of the face. Chimeric faces, made from photographs of attractive and unattractive female faces, were produced by computer graphics. Babies looked longer at normal and at chimeric attractive faces than at normal and at chimeric unattractive faces. There were no developmental differences between the younger and older infants: all preferred to look at the attractive faces. Infants as young as 4 months showed similarity with adults in the 'aesthetic perception' of attractiveness and this preference was not based on the vertical symmetry of the face.
Positive illusions about one's partner's physical attractiveness.
Barelds-Dijkstra, Pieternel; Barelds, Dick P H
2008-03-01
This study examined couples' ratings of self and partner physical attractiveness. On the basis of the theory of positive illusions, it was expected that individuals would rate their partners as more attractive than their partners would rate themselves. Both members of 93 heterosexual couples, with a mean relationship length of about 14 years, provided ratings of both their own and their partner's physical attractiveness. Results support the theory that individuals hold positive illusions about their partner's physical attractiveness. Implications of these results in terms of relationship-enhancing biases are discussed. PMID:18405868
First names and perceptions of physical attractiveness.
Erwin, P G
1993-11-01
I examined the impact of first names on ratings of physical attractiveness as judged by British undergraduate subjects using male and female full-face pictures presented on photographic slides. The photographs were identified with attractive names, unattractive names, or without any name indicated. Subjects rated the stimulus figures for physical attractiveness. Names accounted for approximately 6% of the variance in subjects' ratings of physical attractiveness. This effect was highly significant for pictures of women (p < .001), but nonsignificant for pictures of men (p > .05).
Distinct medial temporal networks encode surprise during motivation by reward versus punishment.
Murty, Vishnu P; LaBar, Kevin S; Adcock, R Alison
2016-10-01
Adaptive motivated behavior requires predictive internal representations of the environment, and surprising events are indications for encoding new representations of the environment. The medial temporal lobe memory system, including the hippocampus and surrounding cortex, encodes surprising events and is influenced by motivational state. Because behavior reflects the goals of an individual, we investigated whether motivational valence (i.e., pursuing rewards versus avoiding punishments) also impacts neural and mnemonic encoding of surprising events. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants encountered perceptually unexpected events either during the pursuit of rewards or avoidance of punishments. Despite similar levels of motivation across groups, reward and punishment facilitated the processing of surprising events in different medial temporal lobe regions. Whereas during reward motivation, perceptual surprises enhanced activation in the hippocampus, during punishment motivation surprises instead enhanced activation in parahippocampal cortex. Further, we found that reward motivation facilitated hippocampal coupling with ventromedial PFC, whereas punishment motivation facilitated parahippocampal cortical coupling with orbitofrontal cortex. Behaviorally, post-scan testing revealed that reward, but not punishment, motivation resulted in greater memory selectivity for surprising events encountered during goal pursuit. Together these findings demonstrate that neuromodulatory systems engaged by anticipation of reward and punishment target separate components of the medial temporal lobe, modulating medial temporal lobe sensitivity and connectivity. Thus, reward and punishment motivation yield distinct neural contexts for learning, with distinct consequences for how surprises are incorporated into predictive mnemonic models of the environment. PMID:26854903
Distinct medial temporal networks encode surprise during motivation by reward versus punishment.
Murty, Vishnu P; LaBar, Kevin S; Adcock, R Alison
2016-10-01
Adaptive motivated behavior requires predictive internal representations of the environment, and surprising events are indications for encoding new representations of the environment. The medial temporal lobe memory system, including the hippocampus and surrounding cortex, encodes surprising events and is influenced by motivational state. Because behavior reflects the goals of an individual, we investigated whether motivational valence (i.e., pursuing rewards versus avoiding punishments) also impacts neural and mnemonic encoding of surprising events. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants encountered perceptually unexpected events either during the pursuit of rewards or avoidance of punishments. Despite similar levels of motivation across groups, reward and punishment facilitated the processing of surprising events in different medial temporal lobe regions. Whereas during reward motivation, perceptual surprises enhanced activation in the hippocampus, during punishment motivation surprises instead enhanced activation in parahippocampal cortex. Further, we found that reward motivation facilitated hippocampal coupling with ventromedial PFC, whereas punishment motivation facilitated parahippocampal cortical coupling with orbitofrontal cortex. Behaviorally, post-scan testing revealed that reward, but not punishment, motivation resulted in greater memory selectivity for surprising events encountered during goal pursuit. Together these findings demonstrate that neuromodulatory systems engaged by anticipation of reward and punishment target separate components of the medial temporal lobe, modulating medial temporal lobe sensitivity and connectivity. Thus, reward and punishment motivation yield distinct neural contexts for learning, with distinct consequences for how surprises are incorporated into predictive mnemonic models of the environment.
Surprise disrupts cognition via a fronto-basal ganglia suppressive mechanism
Wessel, Jan R.; Jenkinson, Ned; Brittain, John-Stuart; Voets, Sarah H. E. M.; Aziz, Tipu Z.; Aron, Adam R.
2016-01-01
Surprising events markedly affect behaviour and cognition, yet the underlying mechanism is unclear. Surprise recruits a brain mechanism that globally suppresses motor activity, ostensibly via the subthalamic nucleus (STN) of the basal ganglia. Here, we tested whether this suppressive mechanism extends beyond skeletomotor suppression and also affects cognition (here, verbal working memory, WM). We recorded scalp-EEG (electrophysiology) in healthy participants and STN local field potentials in Parkinson's patients during a task in which surprise disrupted WM. For scalp-EEG, surprising events engage the same independent neural signal component that indexes action stopping in a stop-signal task. Importantly, the degree of this recruitment mediates surprise-related WM decrements. Intracranially, STN activity is also increased post surprise, especially when WM is interrupted. These results suggest that surprise interrupts cognition via the same fronto-basal ganglia mechanism that interrupts action. This motivates a new neural theory of how cognition is interrupted, and how distraction arises after surprising events. PMID:27088156
Surprise disrupts cognition via a fronto-basal ganglia suppressive mechanism.
Wessel, Jan R; Jenkinson, Ned; Brittain, John-Stuart; Voets, Sarah H E M; Aziz, Tipu Z; Aron, Adam R
2016-01-01
Surprising events markedly affect behaviour and cognition, yet the underlying mechanism is unclear. Surprise recruits a brain mechanism that globally suppresses motor activity, ostensibly via the subthalamic nucleus (STN) of the basal ganglia. Here, we tested whether this suppressive mechanism extends beyond skeletomotor suppression and also affects cognition (here, verbal working memory, WM). We recorded scalp-EEG (electrophysiology) in healthy participants and STN local field potentials in Parkinson's patients during a task in which surprise disrupted WM. For scalp-EEG, surprising events engage the same independent neural signal component that indexes action stopping in a stop-signal task. Importantly, the degree of this recruitment mediates surprise-related WM decrements. Intracranially, STN activity is also increased post surprise, especially when WM is interrupted. These results suggest that surprise interrupts cognition via the same fronto-basal ganglia mechanism that interrupts action. This motivates a new neural theory of how cognition is interrupted, and how distraction arises after surprising events. PMID:27088156
Finding the SurPriSe: A Case Study of a Faculty Learning Community
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Michel, Roberta M.
2014-01-01
This article details a faculty learning community (FLC) that started in 2009 on the campus of a Midwestern University and has evolved into an interdisciplinary research, teaching and social community of practice and learning called SurPriSe. SurPriSe is an acronym that reflects the interest area of the FLC; Sur for surveillance, Pri for privacy,…
Bayesian Methods for High Dimensional Linear Models
Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun
2013-01-01
In this article, we present a selective overview of some recent developments in Bayesian model and variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models. While most of the reviews in literature are based on conventional methods, we focus on recently developed methods, which have proven to be successful in dealing with high dimensional variable selection. First, we give a brief overview of the traditional model selection methods (viz. Mallow’s Cp, AIC, BIC, DIC), followed by a discussion on some recently developed methods (viz. EBIC, regularization), which have occupied the minds of many statisticians. Then, we review high dimensional Bayesian methods with a particular emphasis on Bayesian regularization methods, which have been used extensively in recent years. We conclude by briefly addressing the asymptotic behaviors of Bayesian variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models under different regularity conditions. PMID:24511433
Bayesian Methods for High Dimensional Linear Models.
Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun
2013-06-01
In this article, we present a selective overview of some recent developments in Bayesian model and variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models. While most of the reviews in literature are based on conventional methods, we focus on recently developed methods, which have proven to be successful in dealing with high dimensional variable selection. First, we give a brief overview of the traditional model selection methods (viz. Mallow's Cp, AIC, BIC, DIC), followed by a discussion on some recently developed methods (viz. EBIC, regularization), which have occupied the minds of many statisticians. Then, we review high dimensional Bayesian methods with a particular emphasis on Bayesian regularization methods, which have been used extensively in recent years. We conclude by briefly addressing the asymptotic behaviors of Bayesian variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models under different regularity conditions.
The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?
Hahn, Ulrike
2014-01-01
A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations in the study of cognition. The present article takes central claims from these critiques and evaluates them in light of specific models. Closer consideration of actual examples of Bayesian treatments of different cognitive phenomena allows one to defuse these critiques showing that they cannot be sustained across the diversity of applications of the Bayesian framework for cognitive modeling. More generally, there is nothing in the Bayesian framework that would inherently give rise to the deficits that these critiques perceive, suggesting they have been framed at the wrong level of generality. At the same time, the examples are used to demonstrate the different ways in which consideration of rationality uniquely benefits both theory and practice in the study of cognition. PMID:25152738
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.
2014-03-01
Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.
Bayesian Uncertainty Analyses Via Deterministic Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krzysztofowicz, R.
2001-05-01
Rational decision-making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Suppose the state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of three Bayesian approaches to producing a probability distribution of the predictand via any deterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Processor of Ensemble (BPE) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on an ensemble of model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution.
Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre
2011-03-01
This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.
Testing Bayesian models of human coincidence timing.
Miyazaki, Makoto; Nozaki, Daichi; Nakajima, Yasoichi
2005-07-01
A sensorimotor control task often requires an accurate estimation of the timing of the arrival of an external target (e.g., when hitting a pitched ball). Conventional studies of human timing processes have ignored the stochastic features of target timing: e.g., the speed of the pitched ball is not generally constant, but is variable. Interestingly, based on Bayesian theory, it has been recently shown that the human sensorimotor system achieves the optimal estimation by integrating sensory information with prior knowledge of the probabilistic structure of the target variation. In this study, we tested whether Bayesian integration is also implemented while performing a coincidence-timing type of sensorimotor task by manipulating the trial-by-trial variability (i.e., the prior distribution) of the target timing. As a result, within several hundred trials of learning, subjects were able to generate systematic timing behavior according to the width of the prior distribution, as predicted by the optimal Bayesian model. Considering the previous studies showing that the human sensorimotor system uses Bayesian integration in spacing and force-grading tasks, our result indicates that Bayesian integration is fundamental to all aspects of human sensorimotor control. Moreover, it was noteworthy that the subjects could adjust their behavior both when the prior distribution was switched from wide to narrow and vice versa, although the adjustment was slower in the former case. Based on a comparison with observations in a previous study, we discuss the flexibility and adaptability of Bayesian sensorimotor learning.
[Bayesian methods for genomic breeding value estimation].
Wang, Chonglong; Ding, Xiangdong; Liu, Jianfeng; Yin, Zongjun; Zhang, Qin
2014-02-01
Estimation of genomic breeding values is the key step in genomic selection. The successful application of genomic selection depends on the accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values, which is mostly determined by the estimation method. Bayes-type and BLUP-type methods are the two main methods which have been widely studied and used. Here, we systematically introduce the currently proposed Bayesian methods, and summarize their effectiveness and improvements. Results from both simulated and real data showed that the accuracies of Bayesian methods are higher than those of BLUP methods, especially for the traits which are influenced by QTL with large effect. Because the theories and computation of Bayesian methods are relatively complicated, their use in practical breeding is less common than BLUP methods. However, with the development of fast algorithms and the improvement of computer hardware, the computational problem of Bayesian methods is expected to be solved. In addition, further studies on the genetic architecture of traits will provide Bayesian methods more accurate prior information, which will make their advantage in accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values more prominent. Therefore, the application of Bayesian methods will be more extensive.
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla
2015-01-01
A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.
Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla
2013-02-01
A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework.
A Bayesian tutorial for data assimilation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wikle, Christopher K.; Berliner, L. Mark
2007-06-01
Data assimilation is the process by which observational data are fused with scientific information. The Bayesian paradigm provides a coherent probabilistic approach for combining information, and thus is an appropriate framework for data assimilation. Viewing data assimilation as a problem in Bayesian statistics is not new. However, the field of Bayesian statistics is rapidly evolving and new approaches for model construction and sampling have been utilized recently in a wide variety of disciplines to combine information. This article includes a brief introduction to Bayesian methods. Paying particular attention to data assimilation, we review linkages to optimal interpolation, kriging, Kalman filtering, smoothing, and variational analysis. Discussion is provided concerning Monte Carlo methods for implementing Bayesian analysis, including importance sampling, particle filtering, ensemble Kalman filtering, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Finally, hierarchical Bayesian modeling is reviewed. We indicate how this approach can be used to incorporate significant physically based prior information into statistical models, thereby accounting for uncertainty. The approach is illustrated in a simplified advection-diffusion model.
Sexual Attractiveness of Males and Females.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Taylor, Peggy; And Others
The most important characteristics for females judging the attractiveness of males, and for males judging females, were eyes, body build and facial complexion. Previously, females tended to place less importance on physical components of attraction for both themselves and men. Possible interpretations are: (1) women have become more egalitarian…
An innovative mosquito trap for testing attractants
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
We describe a simple trap modification for testing or using attractants to collect flying mosquitoes. The trap also can test the effectiveness of spatial repellents. The proposed design may facilitate standardized testing of mosquito attractants and repellents. The trap uses a standard Centers f...
Attraction, Discrepancy and Responses to Psychological Treatment.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Patton, Michael J.
The responses of a laboratory subject (S) to a counselor-accomplice and to the psychological treatment situation are examined by manipulating experimentally interpersonal attraction and communication discrepancy. Four treatment conditions were set up: (1) topic similarity and positive attraction for counselor, (2) topic discrepancy and positive…
An Attributional Approach to Counselor Attractiveness.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hackman, Hollis W.; Claiborn, Charles D.
1982-01-01
Examined two components of counselor attractiveness--perceived similarity and liking--in a comparison of two theoretical approaches to attractiveness and influence in counseling--the referent power hypothesis and an attributional approach. Results generally support the attributional approach over the reference power hypothesis. (Author)
Attitude Similarity, Topic Importance, and Psychotherapeutic Attraction
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cheney, Thomas
1975-01-01
The effect of attitude similarity and topic importance on attraction was studied by exposing 75 prison inmates, incarcerated for public intoxication, to varying attitudes of a psychotherapist. Subjects were more attracted to the therapist after receiving alcohol items regardless of degree of similarity expressed. (Author)
Electron attraction mediated by Coulomb repulsion.
Hamo, A; Benyamini, A; Shapir, I; Khivrich, I; Waissman, J; Kaasbjerg, K; Oreg, Y; von Oppen, F; Ilani, S
2016-07-21
One of the defining properties of electrons is their mutual Coulomb repulsion. However, in solids this basic property may change; for example, in superconductors, the coupling of electrons to lattice vibrations makes the electrons attract one another, leading to the formation of bound pairs. Fifty years ago it was proposed that electrons can be made attractive even when all of the degrees of freedom in the solid are electronic, by exploiting their repulsion from other electrons. This attraction mechanism, termed 'excitonic', promised to achieve stronger and more exotic superconductivity. Yet, despite an extensive search, experimental evidence for excitonic attraction has yet to be found. Here we demonstrate this attraction by constructing, from the bottom up, the fundamental building block of the excitonic mechanism. Our experiments are based on quantum devices made from pristine carbon nanotubes, combined with cryogenic precision manipulation. Using this platform, we demonstrate that two electrons can be made to attract each other using an independent electronic system as the 'glue' that mediates attraction. Owing to its tunability, our system offers insights into the underlying physics, such as the dependence of the emergent attraction on the underlying repulsion, and the origin of the pairing energy. We also demonstrate transport signatures of excitonic pairing. This experimental demonstration of excitonic pairing paves the way for the design of exotic states of matter. PMID:27443742
Brain Systems for Assessing Facial Attractiveness
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Winston, Joel S.; O'Doherty, John; Kilner, James M.; Perrett, David I.; Dolan, Raymond J.
2007-01-01
Attractiveness is a facial attribute that shapes human affiliative behaviours. In a previous study we reported a linear response to facial attractiveness in orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), a region involved in reward processing. There are strong theoretical grounds for the hypothesis that coding stimulus reward value also involves the amygdala. The…
Infant Attractiveness Predicts Maternal Behaviors and Attitudes.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Langlois, Judith H.; And Others
1995-01-01
Examined the relationship between infant attractiveness and maternal behavior by observing mothers feeding and playing with their firstborn infants immediately after giving birth and when the infants were three months of age. Found that mothers of more attractive infants were more affectionate and playful compared with mothers of less attractive…
Formal Mentoring Programs and Organizational Attraction
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Allen, Tammy D.; O'Brien, Kimberly E.
2006-01-01
This study was designed to test if formal mentoring programs enhance organizational attraction. Participants were 190 undergraduates looking for a job related to their major. Results indicated that participants were more attracted to an organization when it was depicted as having a formal mentoring program than when it was not so depicted. Drawing…
Interpersonal Attraction in the Counseling Relationship.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wachowiak, Dale; Diaz, Sandra
Murstein's Stimulus-Value-Role theory of dyadic relationships, in which attraction depends on the exchange value of the assets and liabilities each person brings to the situation, is employed as a foundation for this review of the literature on interpersonal attraction in the counseling relationship. A three-stage model, accounting for both…
Electron attraction mediated by Coulomb repulsion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamo, A.; Benyamini, A.; Shapir, I.; Khivrich, I.; Waissman, J.; Kaasbjerg, K.; Oreg, Y.; von Oppen, F.; Ilani, S.
2016-07-01
One of the defining properties of electrons is their mutual Coulomb repulsion. However, in solids this basic property may change; for example, in superconductors, the coupling of electrons to lattice vibrations makes the electrons attract one another, leading to the formation of bound pairs. Fifty years ago it was proposed that electrons can be made attractive even when all of the degrees of freedom in the solid are electronic, by exploiting their repulsion from other electrons. This attraction mechanism, termed ‘excitonic’, promised to achieve stronger and more exotic superconductivity. Yet, despite an extensive search, experimental evidence for excitonic attraction has yet to be found. Here we demonstrate this attraction by constructing, from the bottom up, the fundamental building block of the excitonic mechanism. Our experiments are based on quantum devices made from pristine carbon nanotubes, combined with cryogenic precision manipulation. Using this platform, we demonstrate that two electrons can be made to attract each other using an independent electronic system as the ‘glue’ that mediates attraction. Owing to its tunability, our system offers insights into the underlying physics, such as the dependence of the emergent attraction on the underlying repulsion, and the origin of the pairing energy. We also demonstrate transport signatures of excitonic pairing. This experimental demonstration of excitonic pairing paves the way for the design of exotic states of matter.
Perceptual adaptation affects attractiveness of female bodies.
Winkler, Christopher; Rhodes, Gillian
2005-05-01
We investigated whether short durations (5 minutes) of exposure to distorted bodies can change subsequent perceptions of attractiveness and normality. Participants rated 110 female bodies, varying in width, on either their attractiveness or normality before and after exposure to either extremely narrow (-50% of original width in Experiments 1 and 2) or extremely wide bodies (+50% of original width in Experiment 1, and +70% of original width in Experiment 2). In both experiments, the most attractive and most normal looking bodies became significantly and substantially narrower after exposure to narrow bodies. The most normal looking body changed significantly after exposure to wide bodies, but the most attractive body did not. These results show that perceptions of body attractiveness can be influenced by experience, but that there is an asymmetry between the effects of exposure to narrow and wide bodies. We consider a possible mechanism for this unexpected asymmetry, as well as possible implications for the effects of media exposure on body-image. The most attractive body shape was consistently narrower than the most normal looking body shape. Substantial changes in what looked normal were accompanied by congruent changes in what looked attractive, suggesting that a normal or average body shape may function as a reference point against which body attractiveness is judged. PMID:15969827
Correlates of Attraction Among Preschool Children.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ross, Michael B.
The generalizability of several variables which have been related to attraction among adults to preschool children was investigated. It was found that perceived physical attractiveness, perceived proximity, and familiarity are all significantly positively correlated with how popular a child is in his nursery school class. (Author)
Attracting Lagrangian coherent structures on Riemannian manifolds.
Karrasch, Daniel
2015-08-01
It is a wide-spread convention to identify repelling Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) with ridges of the forward finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) field and to identify attracting LCSs with ridges of the backward FTLE. However, we show that, in two-dimensional incompressible flows, also attracting LCSs appear as ridges of the forward FTLE field. This raises the issue of the characterization of attracting LCSs using a forward finite-time Lyapunov analysis. To this end, we extend recent results regarding the relationship between forward and backward maximal and minimal FTLEs, to both the whole finite-time Lyapunov spectrum and to stretch directions. This is accomplished by considering the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the linearized flow map. By virtue of geometrical insights from the SVD, we provide characterizations of attracting LCSs in forward time for two geometric approaches to hyperbolic LCSs. We apply these results to the attracting FTLE ridge of the incompressible saddle flow.
Attracting Lagrangian coherent structures on Riemannian manifolds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karrasch, Daniel
2015-08-01
It is a wide-spread convention to identify repelling Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) with ridges of the forward finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) field and to identify attracting LCSs with ridges of the backward FTLE. However, we show that, in two-dimensional incompressible flows, also attracting LCSs appear as ridges of the forward FTLE field. This raises the issue of the characterization of attracting LCSs using a forward finite-time Lyapunov analysis. To this end, we extend recent results regarding the relationship between forward and backward maximal and minimal FTLEs, to both the whole finite-time Lyapunov spectrum and to stretch directions. This is accomplished by considering the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the linearized flow map. By virtue of geometrical insights from the SVD, we provide characterizations of attracting LCSs in forward time for two geometric approaches to hyperbolic LCSs. We apply these results to the attracting FTLE ridge of the incompressible saddle flow.
Men's attraction to women's bodies changes seasonally.
Pawlowski, Bogusław; Sorokowski, Piotr
2008-01-01
Humans exhibit seasonal variation in hormone levels, behaviour, and perception. Here we show that men's assessments of women's attractiveness change also seasonally. In five seasons (from winter 2004 to winter 2005) 114 heterosexual men were asked to assess the attractiveness of the same stimuli: photos of a female with three different waist-to-hip ratios; photos of female breasts, and photos of average-looking faces of young women. For each season, the scores given to the stimuli of the same category (body shape, breast, and face) were combined. Friedman's test revealed significant changes for body shape and breast attractiveness assessments across the seasons, but no changes for face ratings. The highest scores for attractiveness were given in winter and the lowest in summer. We suggest that the observed seasonality is related to the well-known 'contrast effect'. More frequent exposure to women's bodies in warmer seasons might increase men's attractiveness criteria for women's body shape and breasts. PMID:18773730
Aphid Sex Pheromone Compounds Interfere with Attraction of Common Green Lacewings to Floral Bait.
Koczor, Sándor; Szentkirályi, Ferenc; Pickett, John A; Birkett, Michael A; Tóth, Miklós
2015-06-01
Common green lacewings (Chrysoperla carnea complex) form a group of generalist predators important for biological control. Several reports show attraction of these insects to plant volatiles, and a highly attractive ternary compound floral bait has been developed. With aphids being a preferred prey of larvae, one might expect these lacewings to be attracted to aphid semiochemicals, for instance, to aphid sex pheromones, as found for several other green lacewing species. However, in a previous study, we found that traps containing aphid sex pheromone compounds (1R,4aS,7S,7aR)-nepetalactol (NEPOH), (4aS,7S,7aR)-nepetalactone (NEPONE), and a ternary floral bait attracted fewer individuals than those containing the ternary floral bait alone. In the present study, possible causes for this effect of NEPOH and NEPONE on trap capture were studied. We established that C. carnea complex catches in traps with a ternary floral lure were not influenced by the presence of Chrysopa formosa individuals in traps (attracted by NEPOH and NEPONE) or by synthetic skatole (a characteristic component of Chrysopa defense secretion). A direct negative effect of NEPOH and NEPONE on attraction of C. carnea complex was found, suggesting active avoidance of these aphid sex pheromone components. This finding is surprising as the larvae of these lacewings prey preferentially on aphids. Possible mechanisms underlying this phenomenon are discussed. PMID:25956798
How facial attractiveness affects sustained attention.
Li, Jie; Oksama, Lauri; Hyönä, Jukka
2016-10-01
The present study investigated whether and how facial attractiveness affects sustained attention. We adopted a multiple-identity tracking paradigm, using attractive and unattractive faces as stimuli. Participants were required to track moving target faces amid distractor faces and report the final location of each target. In Experiment 1, the attractive and unattractive faces differed in both the low-level properties (i.e., luminance, contrast, and color saturation) and high-level properties (i.e., physical beauty and age). The results showed that the attractiveness of both the target and distractor faces affected the tracking performance: The attractive target faces were tracked better than the unattractive target faces; when the targets and distractors were both unattractive male faces, the tracking performance was poorer than when they were of different attractiveness. In Experiment 2, the low-level properties of the facial images were equalized. The results showed that the attractive target faces were still tracked better than unattractive targets while the effects related to distractor attractiveness ceased to exist. Taken together, the results indicate that during attentional tracking the high-level properties related to the attractiveness of the target faces can be automatically processed, and then they can facilitate the sustained attention on the attractive targets, either with or without the supplement of low-level properties. On the other hand, only low-level properties of the distractor faces can be processed. When the distractors share similar low-level properties with the targets, they can be grouped together, so that it would be more difficult to sustain attention on the individual targets.
How facial attractiveness affects sustained attention.
Li, Jie; Oksama, Lauri; Hyönä, Jukka
2016-10-01
The present study investigated whether and how facial attractiveness affects sustained attention. We adopted a multiple-identity tracking paradigm, using attractive and unattractive faces as stimuli. Participants were required to track moving target faces amid distractor faces and report the final location of each target. In Experiment 1, the attractive and unattractive faces differed in both the low-level properties (i.e., luminance, contrast, and color saturation) and high-level properties (i.e., physical beauty and age). The results showed that the attractiveness of both the target and distractor faces affected the tracking performance: The attractive target faces were tracked better than the unattractive target faces; when the targets and distractors were both unattractive male faces, the tracking performance was poorer than when they were of different attractiveness. In Experiment 2, the low-level properties of the facial images were equalized. The results showed that the attractive target faces were still tracked better than unattractive targets while the effects related to distractor attractiveness ceased to exist. Taken together, the results indicate that during attentional tracking the high-level properties related to the attractiveness of the target faces can be automatically processed, and then they can facilitate the sustained attention on the attractive targets, either with or without the supplement of low-level properties. On the other hand, only low-level properties of the distractor faces can be processed. When the distractors share similar low-level properties with the targets, they can be grouped together, so that it would be more difficult to sustain attention on the individual targets. PMID:27347672
Bayesian Vision for Shape Recovery
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jalobeanu, Andre
2004-01-01
We present a new Bayesian vision technique that aims at recovering a shape from two or more noisy observations taken under similar lighting conditions. The shape is parametrized by a piecewise linear height field, textured by a piecewise linear irradiance field, and we assume Gaussian Markovian priors for both shape vertices and irradiance variables. The observation process. also known as rendering, is modeled by a non-affine projection (e.g. perspective projection) followed by a convolution with a piecewise linear point spread function. and contamination by additive Gaussian noise. We assume that the observation parameters are calibrated beforehand. The major novelty of the proposed method consists of marginalizing out the irradiances considered as nuisance parameters, which is achieved by Laplace approximations. This reduces the inference to minimizing an energy that only depends on the shape vertices, and therefore allows an efficient Iterated Conditional Mode (ICM) optimization scheme to be implemented. A Gaussian approximation of the posterior shape density is computed, thus providing estimates both the geometry and its uncertainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of the new method by shape reconstruction results in a 2D case. A 3D version is currently under development and aims at recovering a surface from multiple images, reconstructing the topography by marginalizing out both albedo and shading.
Bayesian inference for OPC modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burbine, Andrew; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David; Smith, Bruce W.
2016-03-01
The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and inference techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper aims to demonstrate the predictive power of Bayesian inference as a method for parameter selection in lithographic models by quantifying the uncertainty associated with model inputs and wafer data. Specifically, the method combines the model builder's prior information about each modelling assumption with the maximization of each observation's likelihood as a Student's t-distributed random variable. Through the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a model's parameter space is explored to find the most credible parameter values. During parameter exploration, the parameters' posterior distributions are generated by applying Bayes' rule, using a likelihood function and the a priori knowledge supplied. The MCMC algorithm used, an affine invariant ensemble sampler (AIES), is implemented by initializing many walkers which semiindependently explore the space. The convergence of these walkers to global maxima of the likelihood volume determine the parameter values' highest density intervals (HDI) to reveal champion models. We show that this method of parameter selection provides insights into the data that traditional methods do not and outline continued experiments to vet the method.
Bayesian estimation of dose thresholds
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Groer, P. G.; Carnes, B. A.
2003-01-01
An example is described of Bayesian estimation of radiation absorbed dose thresholds (subsequently simply referred to as dose thresholds) using a specific parametric model applied to a data set on mice exposed to 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons. A Weibull based relative risk model with a dose threshold parameter was used to analyse, as an example, lung cancer mortality and determine the posterior density for the threshold dose after single exposures to 60Co gamma rays or fission neutrons from the JANUS reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The data consisted of survival, censoring times and cause of death information for male B6CF1 unexposed and exposed mice. The 60Co gamma whole-body doses for the two exposed groups were 0.86 and 1.37 Gy. The neutron whole-body doses were 0.19 and 0.38 Gy. Marginal posterior densities for the dose thresholds for neutron and gamma radiation were calculated with numerical integration and found to have quite different shapes. The density of the threshold for 60Co is unimodal with a mode at about 0.50 Gy. The threshold density for fission neutrons declines monotonically from a maximum value at zero with increasing doses. The posterior densities for all other parameters were similar for the two radiation types.
Normativity, interpretation, and Bayesian models
Oaksford, Mike
2014-01-01
It has been suggested that evaluative normativity should be expunged from the psychology of reasoning. A broadly Davidsonian response to these arguments is presented. It is suggested that two distinctions, between different types of rationality, are more permeable than this argument requires and that the fundamental objection is to selecting theories that make the most rational sense of the data. It is argued that this is inevitable consequence of radical interpretation where understanding others requires assuming they share our own norms of reasoning. This requires evaluative normativity and it is shown that when asked to evaluate others’ arguments participants conform to rational Bayesian norms. It is suggested that logic and probability are not in competition and that the variety of norms is more limited than the arguments against evaluative normativity suppose. Moreover, the universality of belief ascription suggests that many of our norms are universal and hence evaluative. It is concluded that the union of evaluative normativity and descriptive psychology implicit in Davidson and apparent in the psychology of reasoning is a good thing. PMID:24860519
Benchmarking for Bayesian Reinforcement Learning
Ernst, Damien; Couëtoux, Adrien
2016-01-01
In the Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) setting, agents try to maximise the collected rewards while interacting with their environment while using some prior knowledge that is accessed beforehand. Many BRL algorithms have already been proposed, but the benchmarks used to compare them are only relevant for specific cases. The paper addresses this problem, and provides a new BRL comparison methodology along with the corresponding open source library. In this methodology, a comparison criterion that measures the performance of algorithms on large sets of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) drawn from some probability distributions is defined. In order to enable the comparison of non-anytime algorithms, our methodology also includes a detailed analysis of the computation time requirement of each algorithm. Our library is released with all source code and documentation: it includes three test problems, each of which has two different prior distributions, and seven state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Finally, our library is illustrated by comparing all the available algorithms and the results are discussed. PMID:27304891
A letter from the United States: the fox in our backyard--science, serendipity and surprise.
Lee, Richard V
2009-11-01
The story of how Charles Darwin composed The Origin of Species, published in November of 1859, has been told many times during the bicentennial of Darwin s birth and the sesquicentennial of the publication of the book. It is a history well known to biologists and historians of science. The heated debate that accompanied the demonstration of natural selection as a mechanism of speciation and continues to the present is surprising. Human beings do not welcome surprise: "the emotion aroused by something unexpected." The history of science and human intellect, however, illustrate the creative stimulus of surprise and serendipity in the development of human knowledge and the evolution of culture. The lives of Homo sapiens would not change if our intellect was unable or unwilling to respond to the unexpected and to make connections between surprising and commonplace events. The rich diversity of South American life was surprising to the European travelers of the 18th and 19th centuries: surprising by its beauty and profusion, but also by its similarities to the creatures of Europe and Africa. Darwin s curiosity sought and welcomed surprise). PMID:20098812
A letter from the United States: the fox in our backyard--science, serendipity and surprise.
Lee, Richard V
2009-11-01
The story of how Charles Darwin composed The Origin of Species, published in November of 1859, has been told many times during the bicentennial of Darwin s birth and the sesquicentennial of the publication of the book. It is a history well known to biologists and historians of science. The heated debate that accompanied the demonstration of natural selection as a mechanism of speciation and continues to the present is surprising. Human beings do not welcome surprise: "the emotion aroused by something unexpected." The history of science and human intellect, however, illustrate the creative stimulus of surprise and serendipity in the development of human knowledge and the evolution of culture. The lives of Homo sapiens would not change if our intellect was unable or unwilling to respond to the unexpected and to make connections between surprising and commonplace events. The rich diversity of South American life was surprising to the European travelers of the 18th and 19th centuries: surprising by its beauty and profusion, but also by its similarities to the creatures of Europe and Africa. Darwin s curiosity sought and welcomed surprise).
Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes
Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John
2016-01-01
Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889
Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes.
Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John
2016-01-01
Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms.
Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes.
Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John
2016-01-01
Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889
Spatiotemporal Bayesian Networks for Malaria Prediction: Case Study of Northern Thailand.
Haddawy, Peter; Kasantikul, Rangwan; Hasan, A H M Imrul; Rattanabumrung, Chunyanuch; Rungrun, Pichamon; Suksopee, Natwipa; Tantiwaranpant, Saran; Niruntasuk, Natcha
2016-01-01
While a diversity of modeling technique have been used to create predictive models of malaria, no work has made use of Bayesian networks. Bayes nets are attractive due to their ability to represent uncertainty, model time lagged and nonlinear relations, and provide explanations of inferences. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks to model malaria, demonstrating the approach by creating a village level model with weekly temporal resolution for Tha Song Yang district in northern Thailand. The network is learned using data on cases and environmental covariates. The network models incidence over time as well as evolution of the environmental variables, and captures time lagged and nonlinear effects. Out of sample evaluation shows the model to have high accuracy for one and two week predictions. PMID:27577491
Personius, Stephen F.; Crone, Anthony J.; Machette, Michael N.; Mahan, Shannon; Lidke, David J.
2009-01-01
The 86-km-long Surprise Valley normal fault forms part of the active northwestern margin of the Basin and Range province in northeastern California. We use trench mapping and radiocarbon, luminescence, and tephra dating to estimate displacements and timing of the past five surface-rupturing earthquakes on the central part of the fault near Cedarville. A Bayesian OxCal analysis of timing constraints indicates earthquake times of 18.2 ± 2.6, 10.9 ± 3.2, 8.5 ± 0.5, 5.8 ± 1.5, and 1.2 ± 0.1 ka. These data yield recurrence intervals of 7.3 ± 4.1, 2.5 ± 3.2, 2.7 ± 1.6, and 4.5 ± 1.5 ka and an elapsed time of 1.2 ± 0.1 ka since the latest surface-rupturing earthquake. Our best estimate of latest Quaternary vertical slip rate is 0.6 ?? 0.1 mm/a. This late Quaternary rate is remarkably similar to long-term (8-14 Ma) minimum vertical slip rates (>0.4-0.5 ± 0.3 mm/a) calculated from recently acquired seismic reflection and chronologic and structural data in Surprise Valley and the adjacent Warner Mountains. However, our slip rate yields estimates of extension that are lower than recent campaign GPS determinations by factors of 1.5-4 unless the fault has an unusually shallow (30°-35°) dip as suggested by recently acquired seismic reflection data. Coseismic displacements of 2-4.5 ± 1 m documented in the trench and probable rupture lengths of 53-65 km indicate a history of latest Quaternary earthquakes of M 6.8-7.3 on the central part of the. Surprise Valley fault.
Attraction by Repulsion: Pairing Electrons using Electrons
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ilani, Shahal
One of the fundamental properties of electrons is their mutual Columbic repulsion. If electrons are placed in a solid, however, this basic property may change. A famous example is that of superconductors, where coupling to lattice vibrations makes electrons attractive and leads to the formation of bound pairs. But what if all the degrees of freedom in the solid are electronic? Is it possible to make electrons attract each other only by their repulsion to other electrons? Such an `excitonic' mechanism for attraction was proposed fifty years ago by W. A. Little, with the hope that it could lead to better and more exotic superconductivity. Yet, despite many efforts to synthesize materials that possess this unique property, to date there is still no evidence for electronic-based attraction. In this talk I will present our recent experiments that observe this unusual electronic attraction using a different, bottom-up approach. Our experiments are based on a new generation of quantum devices made from pristine carbon nanotubes, combined with precision cryogenic manipulation. Using this setup we can now assemble the fundamental building block of the excitonic attraction and demonstrate that two electrons that naturally repel each other can be made attractive using an independent electronic system as the binding glue. I will discuss the lessons learned from these experiments on what is achievable with plain electrostatics, and on the possibility to use the observed mechanism for creating exotic states of matter.
Singh, R; Ho, S Y
2000-06-01
Dissimilarity and similarity between attitudes of the participants and a stranger were manipulated across two sets of issues to test the attraction, repulsion and similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry hypotheses. Participants (N = 192) judged social (liking, enjoyment of company) and intellectual (intelligence, general knowledge) attractiveness of the stranger. The similarity in the first set of attitudes x similarity in the second set of attitudes effect emerged in social attraction, but not in intellectual attraction. Stated simply, dissimilarity had a greater weight than similarity in social attraction, but equal weight in intellectual attraction. These results support the similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry hypothesis that predicts dissimilarity-repulsion to be stronger than similarity-attraction. However, they reject (1) the attraction hypothesis that dissimilarity and similarity produce equal and opposite effects on social attraction; and (2) the repulsion hypothesis that only dissimilar attitudes affect social attraction by leading to repulsion. An equal weighting of dissimilarity and similarity in intellectual attraction further suggested that the similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry on social attraction is reflective of a stronger avoidance response in the Darwinian sense. PMID:10907095
Singh, R; Ho, S Y
2000-06-01
Dissimilarity and similarity between attitudes of the participants and a stranger were manipulated across two sets of issues to test the attraction, repulsion and similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry hypotheses. Participants (N = 192) judged social (liking, enjoyment of company) and intellectual (intelligence, general knowledge) attractiveness of the stranger. The similarity in the first set of attitudes x similarity in the second set of attitudes effect emerged in social attraction, but not in intellectual attraction. Stated simply, dissimilarity had a greater weight than similarity in social attraction, but equal weight in intellectual attraction. These results support the similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry hypothesis that predicts dissimilarity-repulsion to be stronger than similarity-attraction. However, they reject (1) the attraction hypothesis that dissimilarity and similarity produce equal and opposite effects on social attraction; and (2) the repulsion hypothesis that only dissimilar attitudes affect social attraction by leading to repulsion. An equal weighting of dissimilarity and similarity in intellectual attraction further suggested that the similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry on social attraction is reflective of a stronger avoidance response in the Darwinian sense.
The Putative Son's Attractiveness Alters the Perceived Attractiveness of the Putative Father.
Prokop, Pavol
2015-08-01
A body of literature has investigated female mate choice in the pre-mating context (pre-mating sexual selection). Humans, however, are long-living mammals forming pair-bonds which sequentially produce offspring. Post-mating evaluations of a partner's attractiveness may thus significantly influence the reproductive success of men and women. I tested herein the theory that the attractiveness of putative sons provides extra information about the genetic quality of fathers, thereby influencing fathers' attractiveness across three studies. As predicted, facially attractive boys were more frequently attributed to attractive putative fathers and vice versa (Study 1). Furthermore, priming with an attractive putative son increased the attractiveness of the putative father with the reverse being true for unattractive putative sons. When putative fathers were presented as stepfathers, the effect of the boy's attractiveness on the stepfather's attractiveness was lower and less consistent (Study 2). This suggests that the presence of an attractive boy has the strongest effect on the perceived attractiveness of putative fathers rather than on non-fathers. The generalized effect of priming with beautiful non-human objects also exists, but its effect is much weaker compared with the effects of putative biological sons (Study 3). Overall, this study highlighted the importance of post-mating sexual selection in humans and suggests that the heritable attractive traits of men are also evaluated by females after mating and/or may be used by females in mate poaching. PMID:25731909
The Putative Son's Attractiveness Alters the Perceived Attractiveness of the Putative Father.
Prokop, Pavol
2015-08-01
A body of literature has investigated female mate choice in the pre-mating context (pre-mating sexual selection). Humans, however, are long-living mammals forming pair-bonds which sequentially produce offspring. Post-mating evaluations of a partner's attractiveness may thus significantly influence the reproductive success of men and women. I tested herein the theory that the attractiveness of putative sons provides extra information about the genetic quality of fathers, thereby influencing fathers' attractiveness across three studies. As predicted, facially attractive boys were more frequently attributed to attractive putative fathers and vice versa (Study 1). Furthermore, priming with an attractive putative son increased the attractiveness of the putative father with the reverse being true for unattractive putative sons. When putative fathers were presented as stepfathers, the effect of the boy's attractiveness on the stepfather's attractiveness was lower and less consistent (Study 2). This suggests that the presence of an attractive boy has the strongest effect on the perceived attractiveness of putative fathers rather than on non-fathers. The generalized effect of priming with beautiful non-human objects also exists, but its effect is much weaker compared with the effects of putative biological sons (Study 3). Overall, this study highlighted the importance of post-mating sexual selection in humans and suggests that the heritable attractive traits of men are also evaluated by females after mating and/or may be used by females in mate poaching.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Holland, George Adam
2006-01-01
This paper considers the possibility of practicums in graduate programs for information management students. The benefits of such practicums are identified and explored and possible drawbacks discussed.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Morton, Stephie
2007-01-01
In this article, the author discusses an art adventure with her third, fourth, and fifth grade enrichment kids to the Fort Collins Museum of Contemporary Art in Colorado. The author demonstrates and teaches her students how to use the art tissue paper and oil pastel complementing the creative spirit of the Jaune Quick-to-See Smith work presented…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stuewer, Roger H.
2006-01-01
The capsule histories of physics that students learn in their physics courses stem basically, I believe, from a linear view of history--that physicists in making fundamental discoveries follow a Royal Road to them, as Hermann von Helmholtz put it in 1892. The actual routes they follow, however, are generally nonlinear, and when historians display…
Probabilistic alternatives to Bayesianism: the case of explanationism
Douven, Igor; Schupbach, Jonah N.
2015-01-01
There has been a probabilistic turn in contemporary cognitive science. Far and away, most of the work in this vein is Bayesian, at least in name. Coinciding with this development, philosophers have increasingly promoted Bayesianism as the best normative account of how humans ought to reason. In this paper, we make a push for exploring the probabilistic terrain outside of Bayesianism. Non-Bayesian, but still probabilistic, theories provide plausible competitors both to descriptive and normative Bayesian accounts. We argue for this general idea via recent work on explanationist models of updating, which are fundamentally probabilistic but assign a substantial, non-Bayesian role to explanatory considerations. PMID:25964769
Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2007-11-01
The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast). To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations.
Netrin1-DCC-Mediated Attraction Guides Post-Crossing Commissural Axons in the Hindbrain
Shoja-Taheri, Farnaz; DeMarco, Arielle
2015-01-01
Commissural axons grow along precise trajectories that are guided by several cues secreted from the ventral midline. After initial attraction to the floor plate using Netrin1 activation of its main attractive receptor, DCC (deleted in colorectal cancer), axons cross the ventral midline, and many turn to grow longitudinally on the contralateral side. After crossing the midline, axons are thought to lose their responsiveness to Netrin1 and become sensitive to midline Slit-Robo repulsion. We aimed to address the in vivo significance of Netrin1 in guiding post-crossing axon trajectories in mouse embryos. Surprisingly, in contrast to the spinal cord, Netrin1 and DCC mutants had abundant commissural axons crossing in the hindbrain. In Netrin1 and DCC mutants, many post-crossing axons made normal turns to grow longitudinally, but projected abnormally at angles away from the midline. In addition, exposure of cultured hindbrain explants to ectopic Netrin1 caused attractive deflection of post-crossing axons. Thus, Netrin1-DCC signaling is not required to attract pre-crossing axons toward the hindbrain floor plate, but is active in post-crossing guidance. Also in contrast with spinal cord, analysis of hindbrain post-crossing axons in Robo1/2 mutant embryos showed that Slit-Robo repulsive signaling was not required for post-crossing trajectories. Our findings show that Netrin1-DCC attractive signaling, but not Slit-Robo repulsive signaling, remains active in hindbrain post-crossing commissural axons to guide longitudinal trajectories, suggesting surprising regional diversity in commissural axon guidance mechanisms. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The left and right sides of the brainstem and spinal cord are connected primarily by axon fibers that grow across the ventral midline, and then away on the other side to their targets. Based on spinal cord, axons are initially attracted by diffusible attractive protein signals to approach and cross the midline, and then are thought to switch
Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.
Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.
2007-10-01
Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.
Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2015-03-01
In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).
On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cheeseman, Peter; Stutz, John; Smelyanskiy, Vadim
2004-01-01
We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.
Tactile length contraction as Bayesian inference.
Tong, Jonathan; Ngo, Vy; Goldreich, Daniel
2016-08-01
To perceive, the brain must interpret stimulus-evoked neural activity. This is challenging: The stochastic nature of the neural response renders its interpretation inherently uncertain. Perception would be optimized if the brain used Bayesian inference to interpret inputs in light of expectations derived from experience. Bayesian inference would improve perception on average but cause illusions when stimuli violate expectation. Intriguingly, tactile, auditory, and visual perception are all prone to length contraction illusions, characterized by the dramatic underestimation of the distance between punctate stimuli delivered in rapid succession; the origin of these illusions has been mysterious. We previously proposed that length contraction illusions occur because the brain interprets punctate stimulus sequences using Bayesian inference with a low-velocity expectation. A novel prediction of our Bayesian observer model is that length contraction should intensify if stimuli are made more difficult to localize. Here we report a tactile psychophysical study that tested this prediction. Twenty humans compared two distances on the forearm: a fixed reference distance defined by two taps with 1-s temporal separation and an adjustable comparison distance defined by two taps with temporal separation t ≤ 1 s. We observed significant length contraction: As t was decreased, participants perceived the two distances as equal only when the comparison distance was made progressively greater than the reference distance. Furthermore, the use of weaker taps significantly enhanced participants' length contraction. These findings confirm the model's predictions, supporting the view that the spatiotemporal percept is a best estimate resulting from a Bayesian inference process.
Bayesian modeling of flexible cognitive control
Jiang, Jiefeng; Heller, Katherine; Egner, Tobias
2014-01-01
“Cognitive control” describes endogenous guidance of behavior in situations where routine stimulus-response associations are suboptimal for achieving a desired goal. The computational and neural mechanisms underlying this capacity remain poorly understood. We examine recent advances stemming from the application of a Bayesian learner perspective that provides optimal prediction for control processes. In reviewing the application of Bayesian models to cognitive control, we note that an important limitation in current models is a lack of a plausible mechanism for the flexible adjustment of control over conflict levels changing at varying temporal scales. We then show that flexible cognitive control can be achieved by a Bayesian model with a volatility-driven learning mechanism that modulates dynamically the relative dependence on recent and remote experiences in its prediction of future control demand. We conclude that the emergent Bayesian perspective on computational mechanisms of cognitive control holds considerable promise, especially if future studies can identify neural substrates of the variables encoded by these models, and determine the nature (Bayesian or otherwise) of their neural implementation. PMID:24929218
Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petty, G. W.
2013-03-01
An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M) of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument) noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals - whether Bayesian or not - lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.
Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petty, G. W.
2013-09-01
An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M) of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument) noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals - whether Bayesian or not - lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.
Rare earth element content of thermal fluids from Surprise Valley, California
Andrew Fowler
2015-09-23
Rare earth element measurements for thermal fluids from Surprise Valley, California. Samples were collected in acid washed HDPE bottles and acidified with concentrated trace element clean (Fisher Scientific) nitric acid. Samples were pre-concentratated by a factor of approximately 10 using chelating resin with and IDA functional group and measured on magnetic sector ICP-MS. Samples include Seyferth Hot Springs, Surprise Valley Resort Mineral Well, Leonard's Hot Spring, and Lake City Mud Volcano Boiling Spring.
Integrating body movement into attractiveness research
Fink, Bernhard; Weege, Bettina; Neave, Nick; Pham, Michael N.; Shackelford, Todd K.
2015-01-01
People judge attractiveness and make trait inferences from the physical appearance of others, and research reveals high agreement among observers making such judgments. Evolutionary psychologists have argued that interest in physical appearance and beauty reflects adaptations that motivate the search for desirable qualities in a potential partner. Although men more than women value the physical appearance of a partner, appearance universally affects social perception in both sexes. Most studies of attractiveness perceptions have focused on third party assessments of static representations of the face and body. Corroborating evidence suggests that body movement, such as dance, also conveys information about mate quality. Here we review evidence that dynamic cues (e.g., gait, dance) also influence perceptions of mate quality, including personality traits, strength, and overall attractiveness. We recommend that attractiveness research considers the informational value of body movement in addition to static cues, to present an integrated perspective on human social perception. PMID:25784887
Physical Distance and Attraction: An Intensification Effect
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schiffenbauer, Allen; Schiavo, R. Steven
1976-01-01
This study was designed to test the effects of both interaction distance and the quality of the interaction upon attraction. The implications of this research for studies concerning crowding is discussed, as are possible explanatory mechanisms. (Editor/RK)
Attracting and retaining nurses in HIV care.
Puplampu, Gideon L; Olson, Karin; Ogilvie, Linda; Mayan, Maria
2014-01-01
Attracting and retaining nurses in HIV care is essential to treatment success, preventing the spread of HIV, slowing its progression, and improving the quality of life of people living with HIV. Despite the wealth of studies examining HIV care, few have focused on the factors that influenced nurses' choices to specialize in HIV care. We examined the factors that attracted and retained eight nurses currently working in HIV care in two large Canadian cities. Participants were primarily women between the ages of 20 and 60 years. Interviews were conducted between November 2010 and September 2011 using interpretive description, a qualitative design. Factors that influenced participants to focus their careers in HIV care included both attracting factors and retaining factors. Although more research is needed, this exploration of attracting and retaining factors may motivate others to specialize in HIV nursing, and thus help to promote adequate support for individuals suffering from the disease. PMID:23499392
Electrostatic attraction between overall neutral surfaces
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adar, Ram M.; Andelman, David; Diamant, Haim
2016-08-01
Two overall neutral surfaces with positively and negatively charged domains ("patches") have been shown in recent experiments to exhibit long-range attraction when immersed in an ionic solution. Motivated by the experiments, we calculate analytically the osmotic pressure between such surfaces within the Poisson-Boltzmann framework, using a variational principle for the surface-averaged free energy. The electrostatic potential, calculated beyond the linear Debye-Hückel theory, yields an overall attraction at large intersurface separations, over a wide range of the system's controlled length scales. In particular, the attraction is stronger and occurs at smaller separations for surface patches of larger size and charge density. In this large patch limit, we find that the attraction-repulsion crossover separation is inversely proportional to the square of the patch-charge density and to the Debye screening length.
Electrostatic attraction between overall neutral surfaces.
Adar, Ram M; Andelman, David; Diamant, Haim
2016-08-01
Two overall neutral surfaces with positively and negatively charged domains ("patches") have been shown in recent experiments to exhibit long-range attraction when immersed in an ionic solution. Motivated by the experiments, we calculate analytically the osmotic pressure between such surfaces within the Poisson-Boltzmann framework, using a variational principle for the surface-averaged free energy. The electrostatic potential, calculated beyond the linear Debye-Hückel theory, yields an overall attraction at large intersurface separations, over a wide range of the system's controlled length scales. In particular, the attraction is stronger and occurs at smaller separations for surface patches of larger size and charge density. In this large patch limit, we find that the attraction-repulsion crossover separation is inversely proportional to the square of the patch-charge density and to the Debye screening length. PMID:27627373
Attracting New Alumni through Continuing Education.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Riggs, Sallie
1979-01-01
At Brown University, continuing education programs have contributed to the diversification of alumni programs and have attracted previously uninvolved alumni. Benefits of alumni education programs, program formats, and advice are discussed. (JMD)
Integrating body movement into attractiveness research.
Fink, Bernhard; Weege, Bettina; Neave, Nick; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K
2015-01-01
People judge attractiveness and make trait inferences from the physical appearance of others, and research reveals high agreement among observers making such judgments. Evolutionary psychologists have argued that interest in physical appearance and beauty reflects adaptations that motivate the search for desirable qualities in a potential partner. Although men more than women value the physical appearance of a partner, appearance universally affects social perception in both sexes. Most studies of attractiveness perceptions have focused on third party assessments of static representations of the face and body. Corroborating evidence suggests that body movement, such as dance, also conveys information about mate quality. Here we review evidence that dynamic cues (e.g., gait, dance) also influence perceptions of mate quality, including personality traits, strength, and overall attractiveness. We recommend that attractiveness research considers the informational value of body movement in addition to static cues, to present an integrated perspective on human social perception.
Integrating body movement into attractiveness research.
Fink, Bernhard; Weege, Bettina; Neave, Nick; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K
2015-01-01
People judge attractiveness and make trait inferences from the physical appearance of others, and research reveals high agreement among observers making such judgments. Evolutionary psychologists have argued that interest in physical appearance and beauty reflects adaptations that motivate the search for desirable qualities in a potential partner. Although men more than women value the physical appearance of a partner, appearance universally affects social perception in both sexes. Most studies of attractiveness perceptions have focused on third party assessments of static representations of the face and body. Corroborating evidence suggests that body movement, such as dance, also conveys information about mate quality. Here we review evidence that dynamic cues (e.g., gait, dance) also influence perceptions of mate quality, including personality traits, strength, and overall attractiveness. We recommend that attractiveness research considers the informational value of body movement in addition to static cues, to present an integrated perspective on human social perception. PMID:25784887
Attractive and repulsive magnetic suspension systems overview
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cope, David B.; Fontana, Richard R.
1992-05-01
Magnetic suspension systems can be used in a wide variety of applications. The decision of whether to use an attractive or repulsive suspension system for a particular application is a fundamental one which must be made during the design process. As an aid to the designer, we compare and contrast attractive and repulsive magnetic suspension systems and indicate whether and under what conditions one or the other system is preferred.
Attractive and repulsive magnetic suspension systems overview
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cope, David B.; Fontana, Richard R.
1992-01-01
Magnetic suspension systems can be used in a wide variety of applications. The decision of whether to use an attractive or repulsive suspension system for a particular application is a fundamental one which must be made during the design process. As an aid to the designer, we compare and contrast attractive and repulsive magnetic suspension systems and indicate whether and under what conditions one or the other system is preferred.
Kawaguchi, Norihiko; Sakamoto, Kazuhiro; Saito, Naohiro; Furusawa, Yoshito; Tanji, Jun; Aoki, Masashi; Mushiake, Hajime
2015-02-01
Visual search is coordinated adaptively by monitoring and predicting the environment. The supplementary eye field (SEF) plays a role in oculomotor control and outcome evaluation. However, it is not clear whether the SEF is involved in adjusting behavioral modes based on preceding feedback. We hypothesized that the SEF drives exploration-exploitation transitions by generating "surprise signals" or rectified prediction errors, which reflect differences between predicted and actual outcomes. To test this hypothesis, we introduced an oculomotor two-target search task in which monkeys were required to find two valid targets among four identical stimuli. After they detected the valid targets, they exploited their knowledge of target locations to obtain a reward by choosing the two valid targets alternately. Behavioral analysis revealed two distinct types of oculomotor search patterns: exploration and exploitation. We found that two types of SEF neurons represented the surprise signals. The error-surprise neurons showed enhanced activity when the monkey received the first error feedback after the target pair change, and this activity was followed by an exploratory oculomotor search pattern. The correct-surprise neurons showed enhanced activity when the monkey received the first correct feedback after an error trial, and this increased activity was followed by an exploitative, fixed-type search pattern. Our findings suggest that error-surprise neurons are involved in the transition from exploitation to exploration and that correct-surprise neurons are involved in the transition from exploration to exploitation.
Computational surprisal analysis speeds-up genomic characterization of cancer processes.
Kravchenko-Balasha, Nataly; Simon, Simcha; Levine, R D; Remacle, F; Exman, Iaakov
2014-01-01
Surprisal analysis is increasingly being applied for the examination of transcription levels in cellular processes, towards revealing inner network structures and predicting response. But to achieve its full potential, surprisal analysis should be integrated into a wider range computational tool. The purposes of this paper are to combine surprisal analysis with other important computation procedures, such as easy manipulation of the analysis results--e.g. to choose desirable result sub-sets for further inspection--, retrieval and comparison with relevant datasets from public databases, and flexible graphical displays for heuristic thinking. The whole set of computation procedures integrated into a single practical tool is what we call Computational Surprisal Analysis. This combined kind of analysis should facilitate significantly quantitative understanding of different cellular processes for researchers, including applications in proteomics and metabolomics. Beyond that, our vision is that Computational Surprisal Analysis has the potential to reach the status of a routine method of analysis for practitioners. The resolving power of Computational Surprisal Analysis is here demonstrated by its application to a variety of cellular cancer process transcription datasets, ours and from the literature. The results provide a compact biological picture of the thermodynamic significance of the leading gene expression phenotypes in every stage of the disease. For each transcript we characterize both its inherent steady state weight, its correlation with the other transcripts and its variation due to the disease. We present a dedicated website to facilitate the analysis for researchers and practitioners.
Ailing voters advance attractive congressional candidates.
Zebrowitz, Leslie A; Franklin, Robert G; Palumbo, Rocco
2015-01-01
Among many benefits of facial attractiveness, there is evidence that more attractive politicians are more likely to be elected. Recent research found this effect to be most pronounced in congressional districts with high disease threat-a result attributed to an adaptive disease avoidance mechanism, whereby the association of low attractiveness with poor health is particularly worrisome to voters who feel vulnerable to disease. We provided a more direct test of this explanation by examining the effects of individuals' own health and age. Supporting a disease avoidance mechanism, less healthy participants showed a stronger preference for more attractive contenders in U.S. Senate races than their healthier peers, and this effect was stronger for older participants, who were generally less healthy than younger participants. Stronger effects of health for older participants partly reflected the absence of positive bias toward attractive candidates among the healthiest, suggesting that healthy older adults may be unconcerned about disease threat or sufficiently wise to ignore attractiveness. PMID:25562113
Malaria mosquitoes attracted by fatal fungus.
George, Justin; Jenkins, Nina E; Blanford, Simon; Thomas, Matthew B; Baker, Thomas C
2013-01-01
Insect-killing fungi such as Beauveria bassiana are being evaluated as possible active ingredients for use in novel biopesticides against mosquito vectors that transmit malaria. Fungal pathogens infect through contact and so applications of spores to surfaces such as walls, nets, or other resting sites provide possible routes to infect mosquitoes in and around domestic dwellings. However, some insects can detect and actively avoid fungal spores to reduce infection risk. If true for mosquitoes, such behavior could render the biopesticide approach ineffective. Here we find that the spores of B. bassiana are highly attractive to females of Anopheles stephensi, a major anopheline mosquito vector of human malaria in Asia. We further find that An. stephensi females are preferentially attracted to dead and dying caterpillars infected with B. bassiana, landing on them and subsequently becoming infected with the fungus. Females are also preferentially attracted to cloth sprayed with oil-formulated B. bassiana spores, with 95% of the attracted females becoming infected after a one-minute visit on the cloth. This is the first report of an insect being attracted to a lethal fungal pathogen. The exact mechanisms involved in this behavior remain unclear. Nonetheless, our results indicate that biopesticidal formulations comprising B. bassiana spores will be conducive to attraction and on-source visitation by malaria vectors. PMID:23658757
Sequential effects in face-attractiveness judgment.
Kondo, Aki; Takahashi, Kohske; Watanabe, Katsumi
2012-01-01
A number of studies have shown that current-trial responses are biased toward the response of the preceding trial in perceptual decisionmaking tasks (the sequential effect-Holland and Lockhead, 1968 Perception & Psychophysics 3 409-414). The sequential effect has been widely observed in evaluation of the physical properties of stimuli as well as more complex properties. However, it is unclear whether subjective decisions (e.g., attractiveness judgments) are also susceptible to the sequential effect. Here, we examined whether the sequential effect would occur in face-attractiveness judgments. Forty-eight pictures of male and female faces were presented successively. Participants rated the attractiveness of each face on a 7-point scale. The results showed that the attractiveness rating of a given face assimilated toward the rating of the preceding trial. In a separate experiment, we provided the average attractiveness rating by others for each trial as feedback. The feedback weakened the sequential effect. These findings suggest that attractiveness judgment is also biased toward the preceding judgment, and hence the sequential effect can be extended into the domain of subjective decisionmaking. PMID:22611662
Ailing Voters Advance Attractive Congressional Candidates
Franklin, Robert G.; Palumbo, Rocco
2015-01-01
Among many benefits of facial attractiveness, there is evidence that more attractive politicians are more likely to be elected. Recent research found this effect to be most pronounced in congressional districts with high disease threat—a result attributed to an adaptive disease avoidance mechanism, whereby the association of low attractiveness with poor health is particularly worrisome to voters who feel vulnerable to disease. We provided a more direct test of this explanation by examining the effects of individuals’ own health and age. Supporting a disease avoidance mechanism, less healthy participants showed a stronger preference for more attractive contenders in U.S. Senate races than their healthier peers, and this effect was stronger for older participants, who were generally less healthy than younger participants. Stronger effects of health for older participants partly reflected the absence of positive bias toward attractive candidates among the healthiest, suggesting that healthy older adults may be unconcerned about disease threat or sufficiently wise to ignore attractiveness. PMID:25562113
Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mengshoel, Ole J.
2010-01-01
One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.
Hierarchical Bayesian models of cognitive development.
Glassen, Thomas; Nitsch, Verena
2016-06-01
This article provides an introductory overview of the state of research on Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling in cognitive development. First, a brief historical summary and a definition of hierarchies in Bayesian modeling are given. Subsequently, some model structures are described based on four examples in the literature. These are models for the development of the shape bias, for learning ontological kinds and causal schemata as well as for the categorization of objects. The Bayesian modeling approach is then compared with the connectionist and nativist modeling paradigms and considered in view of Marr's (1982) three description levels of information-processing mechanisms. In this context, psychologically plausible algorithms and ideas of their neural implementation are presented. In addition to criticism and limitations of the approach, research needs are identified. PMID:27222110
Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bae, Harold; Monti, Stefano; Montano, Monty; Steinberg, Martin H.; Perls, Thomas T.; Sebastiani, Paola
2016-05-01
Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.
Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses
Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.
1999-04-01
The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.
Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adam, J.; Adamová, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Aglieri Rinella, G.; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahmad, S.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Antičić, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshäuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badalà, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnaföldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Basu, S.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Batista Camejo, A.; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielčík, J.; Bielčíková, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Bøggild, H.; Boldizsár, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossú, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Calero Diaz, L.; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castillo Castellanos, J.; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Ceballos Sanchez, C.; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Chibante Barroso, V.; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Chung, S. U.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Conesa Balbastre, G.; Conesa del Valle, Z.; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Corrales Morales, Y.; Cortés Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, D.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Dénes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Diaz Corchero, M. A.; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divià, R.; Djuvsland, Ø.; Dobrin, A.; Domenicis Gimenez, D.; Dönigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernández Téllez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Fusco Girard, M.; Gaardhøje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Ghosh, P.; Ghosh, S. K.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glässel, P.; Goméz Coral, D. M.; Gomez Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; González-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Görlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, R.; Haake, R.; Haaland, Ø.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbär, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jacobs, P. M.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Jimenez Bustamante, R. T.; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kang, J. H.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Karasu Uysal, A.; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Mohisin Khan, M.; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, H.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein, J.; Klein-Bösing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, G.; Králik, I.; Kravčáková, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kučera, V.; Kuhn, C.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; León Monzón, I.; León Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Lévai, P.; Li, S.; Li, X.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; López Torres, E.; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mareš, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marín, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Martin Blanco, J.; Martinengo, P.; Martínez, M. I.; Martínez García, G.; Martinez Pedreira, M.; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Mercado Pérez, J.; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miśkowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montaño Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; Moreira De Godoy, D. A.; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Mühlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paić, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Pandey, A. K.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Pereira Da Costa, H.; Peresunko, D.; Pérez Lara, C. E.; Perez Lezama, E.; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petráček, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Płoskoń, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Räsänen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Rehman, A.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodríguez Cahuantzi, M.; Rodriguez Manso, A.; Røed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Röhrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Rubio Montero, A. J.; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Šafařík, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Šándor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Šefčík, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; Souza, R. D. de; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Šumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Muñoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thäder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Valencia Palomo, L.; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vande Vyvre, P.; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limón, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Villalobos Baillie, O.; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Völkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrláková, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weber, M.; Weber, S. G.; Weiser, D. F.; Wessels, J. P.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yang, P.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I.-K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Závada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, D.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.
2016-05-01
We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss ( d E/d x) and time of flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high-purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels K0S → π-π+, φ→ K-K+, and Λ→ p π- in p-Pb collisions at √{s_{NN}}=5.02 TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected pT spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D0 mesons in pp collisions at √{s}=7 TeV. In all cases, the results using Bayesian PID were found to be consistent with previous measurements performed by ALICE using a standard PID approach. For the measurement of D0 → K-π+, it was found that a Bayesian PID approach gave a higher signal-to-background ratio and a similar or larger statistical significance when compared with standard PID selections, despite a reduced identification efficiency. Finally, we present an exploratory study of the measurement of Λc+ → p K-π+ in pp collisions at √{s}=7 TeV, using the Bayesian approach for the identification of its decay products.
Penis size interacts with body shape and height to influence male attractiveness
Mautz, Brian S.; Wong, Bob B. M.; Peters, Richard A.; Jennions, Michael D.
2013-01-01
Compelling evidence from many animal taxa indicates that male genitalia are often under postcopulatory sexual selection for characteristics that increase a male’s relative fertilization success. There could, however, also be direct precopulatory female mate choice based on male genital traits. Before clothing, the nonretractable human penis would have been conspicuous to potential mates. This observation has generated suggestions that human penis size partly evolved because of female choice. Here we show, based upon female assessment of digitally projected life-size, computer-generated images, that penis size interacts with body shape and height to determine male sexual attractiveness. Positive linear selection was detected for penis size, but the marginal increase in attractiveness eventually declined with greater penis size (i.e., quadratic selection). Penis size had a stronger effect on attractiveness in taller men than in shorter men. There was a similar increase in the positive effect of penis size on attractiveness with a more masculine body shape (i.e., greater shoulder-to-hip ratio). Surprisingly, larger penis size and greater height had almost equivalent positive effects on male attractiveness. Our results support the hypothesis that female mate choice could have driven the evolution of larger penises in humans. More broadly, our results show that precopulatory sexual selection can play a role in the evolution of genital traits. PMID:23569234
Penis size interacts with body shape and height to influence male attractiveness.
Mautz, Brian S; Wong, Bob B M; Peters, Richard A; Jennions, Michael D
2013-04-23
Compelling evidence from many animal taxa indicates that male genitalia are often under postcopulatory sexual selection for characteristics that increase a male's relative fertilization success. There could, however, also be direct precopulatory female mate choice based on male genital traits. Before clothing, the nonretractable human penis would have been conspicuous to potential mates. This observation has generated suggestions that human penis size partly evolved because of female choice. Here we show, based upon female assessment of digitally projected life-size, computer-generated images, that penis size interacts with body shape and height to determine male sexual attractiveness. Positive linear selection was detected for penis size, but the marginal increase in attractiveness eventually declined with greater penis size (i.e., quadratic selection). Penis size had a stronger effect on attractiveness in taller men than in shorter men. There was a similar increase in the positive effect of penis size on attractiveness with a more masculine body shape (i.e., greater shoulder-to-hip ratio). Surprisingly, larger penis size and greater height had almost equivalent positive effects on male attractiveness. Our results support the hypothesis that female mate choice could have driven the evolution of larger penises in humans. More broadly, our results show that precopulatory sexual selection can play a role in the evolution of genital traits. PMID:23569234
Cory, Anna-Lena; Schneider, Jutta M
2016-01-01
Background. In many insects and spider species, females attract males with volatile sex pheromones, but we know surprisingly little about the costs and benefits of female pheromone emission. Here, we test the hypothesis that mate attraction by females is dynamic and strategic in the sense that investment in mate attraction is matched to the needs of the female. We use the orb-web spider Argiope bruennichi in which females risk the production of unfertilised egg clutches if they do not receive a copulation within a certain time-frame. Methods. We designed field experiments to compare mate attraction by recently matured (young) females with females close to oviposition (old). In addition, we experimentally separated the potential sources of pheromone transmission, namely the female body and the web silk. Results. In accordance with the hypothesis of strategic pheromone production, the probability of mate attraction and the number of males attracted differed between age classes. While the bodies and webs of young females were hardly found by males, the majority of old females attracted up to two males within two hours. Old females not only increased pheromone emission from their bodies but also from their webs. Capture webs alone spun by old females were significantly more efficient in attracting males than webs of younger females. Discussion. Our results suggest that females modulate their investment in signalling according to the risk of remaining unmated and that they thereby economize on the costs associated with pheromone production and emission.
Cory, Anna-Lena; Schneider, Jutta M
2016-01-01
Background. In many insects and spider species, females attract males with volatile sex pheromones, but we know surprisingly little about the costs and benefits of female pheromone emission. Here, we test the hypothesis that mate attraction by females is dynamic and strategic in the sense that investment in mate attraction is matched to the needs of the female. We use the orb-web spider Argiope bruennichi in which females risk the production of unfertilised egg clutches if they do not receive a copulation within a certain time-frame. Methods. We designed field experiments to compare mate attraction by recently matured (young) females with females close to oviposition (old). In addition, we experimentally separated the potential sources of pheromone transmission, namely the female body and the web silk. Results. In accordance with the hypothesis of strategic pheromone production, the probability of mate attraction and the number of males attracted differed between age classes. While the bodies and webs of young females were hardly found by males, the majority of old females attracted up to two males within two hours. Old females not only increased pheromone emission from their bodies but also from their webs. Capture webs alone spun by old females were significantly more efficient in attracting males than webs of younger females. Discussion. Our results suggest that females modulate their investment in signalling according to the risk of remaining unmated and that they thereby economize on the costs associated with pheromone production and emission. PMID:27114864
Schneider, Jutta M.
2016-01-01
Background. In many insects and spider species, females attract males with volatile sex pheromones, but we know surprisingly little about the costs and benefits of female pheromone emission. Here, we test the hypothesis that mate attraction by females is dynamic and strategic in the sense that investment in mate attraction is matched to the needs of the female. We use the orb-web spider Argiope bruennichi in which females risk the production of unfertilised egg clutches if they do not receive a copulation within a certain time-frame. Methods. We designed field experiments to compare mate attraction by recently matured (young) females with females close to oviposition (old). In addition, we experimentally separated the potential sources of pheromone transmission, namely the female body and the web silk. Results. In accordance with the hypothesis of strategic pheromone production, the probability of mate attraction and the number of males attracted differed between age classes. While the bodies and webs of young females were hardly found by males, the majority of old females attracted up to two males within two hours. Old females not only increased pheromone emission from their bodies but also from their webs. Capture webs alone spun by old females were significantly more efficient in attracting males than webs of younger females. Discussion. Our results suggest that females modulate their investment in signalling according to the risk of remaining unmated and that they thereby economize on the costs associated with pheromone production and emission. PMID:27114864
Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adam, Gh.; Adam, S.
2016-02-01
Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1-16 (2012)] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule), mesoscopic (Simpson rule), and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision). Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.
A probabilistic approach to quantum Bayesian games of incomplete information
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iqbal, Azhar; Chappell, James M.; Li, Qiang; Pearce, Charles E. M.; Abbott, Derek
2014-12-01
A Bayesian game is a game of incomplete information in which the rules of the game are not fully known to all players. We consider the Bayesian game of Battle of Sexes that has several Bayesian Nash equilibria and investigate its outcome when the underlying probability set is obtained from generalized Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiments. We find that this probability set, which may become non-factorizable, results in a unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium of the game.
Photogrammetric Analysis of Attractiveness in Indian Faces
Duggal, Shveta; Kapoor, DN; Verma, Santosh; Sagar, Mahesh; Lee, Yung-Seop; Moon, Hyoungjin
2016-01-01
Background The objective of this study was to assess the attractive facial features of the Indian population. We tried to evaluate subjective ratings of facial attractiveness and identify which facial aesthetic subunits were important for facial attractiveness. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted of 150 samples (referred to as candidates). Frontal photographs were analyzed. An orthodontist, a prosthodontist, an oral surgeon, a dentist, an artist, a photographer and two laymen (estimators) subjectively evaluated candidates' faces using visual analog scale (VAS) scores. As an objective method for facial analysis, we used balanced angular proportional analysis (BAPA). Using SAS 10.1 (SAS Institute Inc.), the Turkey's studentized range test and Pearson correlation analysis were performed to detect between-group differences in VAS scores (Experiment 1), to identify correlations between VAS scores and BAPA scores (Experiment 2), and to analyze the characteristic features of facial attractiveness and gender differences (Experiment 3); the significance level was set at P=0.05. Results Experiment 1 revealed some differences in VAS scores according to professional characteristics. In Experiment 2, BAPA scores were found to behave similarly to subjective ratings of facial beauty, but showed a relatively weak correlation coefficient with the VAS scores. Experiment 3 found that the decisive factors for facial attractiveness were different for men and women. Composite images of attractive Indian male and female faces were constructed. Conclusions Our photogrammetric study, statistical analysis, and average composite faces of an Indian population provide valuable information about subjective perceptions of facial beauty and attractive facial structures in the Indian population. PMID:27019809
Dissociable effects of surprise and model update in parietal and anterior cingulate cortex.
O'Reilly, Jill X; Schüffelgen, Urs; Cuell, Steven F; Behrens, Timothy E J; Mars, Rogier B; Rushworth, Matthew F S
2013-09-17
Brains use predictive models to facilitate the processing of expected stimuli or planned actions. Under a predictive model, surprising (low probability) stimuli or actions necessitate the immediate reallocation of processing resources, but they can also signal the need to update the underlying predictive model to reflect changes in the environment. Surprise and updating are often correlated in experimental paradigms but are, in fact, distinct constructs that can be formally defined as the Shannon information (IS) and Kullback-Leibler divergence (DKL) associated with an observation. In a saccadic planning task, we observed that distinct behaviors and brain regions are associated with surprise/IS and updating/DKL. Although surprise/IS was associated with behavioral reprogramming as indexed by slower reaction times, as well as with activity in the posterior parietal cortex [human lateral intraparietal area (LIP)], the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) was specifically activated during updating of the predictive model (DKL). A second saccade-sensitive region in the inferior posterior parietal cortex (human 7a), which has connections to both LIP and ACC, was activated by surprise and modulated by updating. Pupillometry revealed a further dissociation between surprise and updating with an early positive effect of surprise and late negative effect of updating on pupil area. These results give a computational account of the roles of the ACC and two parietal saccade regions, LIP and 7a, by which their involvement in diverse tasks can be understood mechanistically. The dissociation of functional roles between regions within the reorienting/reprogramming network may also inform models of neurological phenomena, such as extinction and Balint syndrome, and neglect.
Predation-Related Costs and Benefits of Conspecific Attraction in Songbirds—An Agent-Based Approach
Szymkowiak, Jakub; Kuczyński, Lechosław
2015-01-01
Songbirds that follow a conspecific attraction strategy in the habitat selection process prefer to settle in habitat patches already occupied by other individuals. This largely affects the patterns of their spatio-temporal distribution and leads to clustered breeding. Although making informed settlement decisions is expected to be beneficial for individuals, such territory clusters may potentially provide additional fitness benefits (e.g., through the dilution effect) or costs (e.g., possibly facilitating nest localization if predators respond functionally to prey distribution). Thus, we hypothesized that the fitness consequences of following a conspecific attraction strategy may largely depend on the composition of the predator community. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the settling behavior of birds that use a conspecific attraction strategy and breed in a multi-predator landscape with predators that exhibited different foraging strategies. Moreover, we investigated whether Bayesian updating of prior settlement decisions according to the perceived predation risk may improve the fitness of birds that rely on conspecific cues. Our results provide evidence that the fitness consequences of conspecific attraction are predation-related. We found that in landscapes dominated by predators able to respond functionally to prey distribution, clustered breeding led to fitness costs. However, this cost could be reduced if birds performed Bayesian updating of prior settlement decisions and perceived nesting with too many neighbors as a threat. Our results did not support the hypothesis that in landscapes dominated by incidental predators, clustered breeding as a byproduct of conspecific attraction provides fitness benefits through the dilution effect. We suggest that this may be due to the spatial scale of songbirds’ aggregative behavior. In general, we provide evidence that when considering the fitness consequences of conspecific attraction for
A SAS Interface for Bayesian Analysis with WinBUGS
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Zhang, Zhiyong; McArdle, John J.; Wang, Lijuan; Hamagami, Fumiaki
2008-01-01
Bayesian methods are becoming very popular despite some practical difficulties in implementation. To assist in the practical application of Bayesian methods, we show how to implement Bayesian analysis with WinBUGS as part of a standard set of SAS routines. This implementation procedure is first illustrated by fitting a multiple regression model…
Bayesian Just-So Stories in Psychology and Neuroscience
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bowers, Jeffrey S.; Davis, Colin J.
2012-01-01
According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak.…
Teaching Bayesian Statistics in a Health Research Methodology Program
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pullenayegum, Eleanor M.; Thabane, Lehana
2009-01-01
Despite the appeal of Bayesian methods in health research, they are not widely used. This is partly due to a lack of courses in Bayesian methods at an appropriate level for non-statisticians in health research. Teaching such a course can be challenging because most statisticians have been taught Bayesian methods using a mathematical approach, and…
A Bayesian approach for the multiplicative binomial regression model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Paraíba, Carolina C. M.; Diniz, Carlos A. R.; Pires, Rubiane M.
2012-10-01
In the present paper, we focus our attention on Altham's multiplicative binomial model under the Bayesian perspective, modeling both the probability of success and the dispersion parameters. We present results based on a simulated data set to access the quality of Bayesian estimates and Bayesian diagnostic for model assessment.
Visual perception of female physical attractiveness.
Fan, J.; Liu, F.; Wu, J.; Dai, W.
2004-01-01
On the basis of visual assessment of figure drawings and front/profile images, past researchers believed that the waist-hip ratio (WHR) and the body mass index (BMI) were two putative cues to female physical attractiveness. However, this view was not tested on three-dimensional (3D) female images. In the present study, 3D images of 31 Caucasian females having varying body weights (BMI ranged from 16 to 35) were shown to 29 male and 25 female viewers, who were asked to rate the physical attractiveness. The results showed that the body volume divided by the square of the height, defined as volume height index (VHI), is the most important and direct visual determinant of female physical attractiveness. In determining the female attractiveness, human observers may first use VHI as a visual cue, which is also a key indicator of health and fertility owing to its strong linear relation to BMI. To fine-tune the judgement, observers may then use body proportions, the most important of which are the ratio of waist height over the chin height (WHC) (a measure of the length of legs over total tallness) and the deviation of WHR from the ideal ratio. It also appears that the effect of the body's physical parameters on the perception of female physical attractiveness conforms to Stevens' power law of psychophysics. PMID:15101692
Human body odour, symmetry and attractiveness.
Rikowski, A; Grammer, K
1999-05-01
Several studies have found body and facial symmetry as well as attractiveness to be human mate choice criteria. These characteristics are presumed to signal developmental stability. Human body odour has been shown to influence female mate choice depending on the immune system, but the question of whether smell could signal general mate quality, as do other cues, was not addressed in previous studies. We compared ratings of body odour, attractiveness, and measurements of facial and body asymmetry of 16 male and 19 female subjects. Subjects wore a T-shirt for three consecutive nights under controlled conditions. Opposite-sex raters judged the odour of the T-shirts and another group evaluated portraits of the subjects for attractiveness. We measured seven bilateral traits of the subject's body to assess body asymmetry. Facial asymmetry was examined by distance measurements of portrait photographs. The results showed a significant positive correlation between facial attractiveness and sexiness of body odour for female subjects. We found positive relationships between body odour and attractiveness and negative ones between smell and body asymmetry for males only if female odour raters were in the most fertile phase of their menstrual cycle. The outcomes are discussed in the light of different male and female reproductive strategies.
Human body odour, symmetry and attractiveness.
Rikowski, A; Grammer, K
1999-01-01
Several studies have found body and facial symmetry as well as attractiveness to be human mate choice criteria. These characteristics are presumed to signal developmental stability. Human body odour has been shown to influence female mate choice depending on the immune system, but the question of whether smell could signal general mate quality, as do other cues, was not addressed in previous studies. We compared ratings of body odour, attractiveness, and measurements of facial and body asymmetry of 16 male and 19 female subjects. Subjects wore a T-shirt for three consecutive nights under controlled conditions. Opposite-sex raters judged the odour of the T-shirts and another group evaluated portraits of the subjects for attractiveness. We measured seven bilateral traits of the subject's body to assess body asymmetry. Facial asymmetry was examined by distance measurements of portrait photographs. The results showed a significant positive correlation between facial attractiveness and sexiness of body odour for female subjects. We found positive relationships between body odour and attractiveness and negative ones between smell and body asymmetry for males only if female odour raters were in the most fertile phase of their menstrual cycle. The outcomes are discussed in the light of different male and female reproductive strategies. PMID:10380676
Pupil dilation signals uncertainty and surprise in a learning gambling task
Lavín, Claudio; San Martín, René; Rosales Jubal, Eduardo
2014-01-01
Pupil dilation under constant illumination is a physiological marker where modulation is related to several cognitive functions involved in daily decision making. There is evidence for a role of pupil dilation change during decision-making tasks associated with uncertainty, reward-prediction errors and surprise. However, while some work suggests that pupil dilation is mainly modulated by reward predictions, others point out that this marker is related to uncertainty signaling and surprise. Supporting the latter hypothesis, the neural substrate of this marker is related to noradrenaline (NA) activity which has been also related to uncertainty signaling. In this work we aimed to test whether pupil dilation is a marker for uncertainty and surprise in a learning task. We recorded pupil dilation responses in 10 participants performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a decision-making task that requires learning and constant monitoring of outcomes’ feedback, which are important variables within the traditional study of human decision making. Results showed that pupil dilation changes were modulated by learned uncertainty and surprise regardless of feedback magnitudes. Interestingly, greater pupil dilation changes were found during positive feedback (PF) presentation when there was lower uncertainty about a future negative feedback (NF); and by surprise during NF presentation. These results support the hypothesis that pupil dilation is a marker of learned uncertainty, and may be used as a marker of NA activity facing unfamiliar situations in humans. PMID:24427126
Pupil dilation signals uncertainty and surprise in a learning gambling task.
Lavín, Claudio; San Martín, René; Rosales Jubal, Eduardo
2013-01-01
Pupil dilation under constant illumination is a physiological marker where modulation is related to several cognitive functions involved in daily decision making. There is evidence for a role of pupil dilation change during decision-making tasks associated with uncertainty, reward-prediction errors and surprise. However, while some work suggests that pupil dilation is mainly modulated by reward predictions, others point out that this marker is related to uncertainty signaling and surprise. Supporting the latter hypothesis, the neural substrate of this marker is related to noradrenaline (NA) activity which has been also related to uncertainty signaling. In this work we aimed to test whether pupil dilation is a marker for uncertainty and surprise in a learning task. We recorded pupil dilation responses in 10 participants performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a decision-making task that requires learning and constant monitoring of outcomes' feedback, which are important variables within the traditional study of human decision making. Results showed that pupil dilation changes were modulated by learned uncertainty and surprise regardless of feedback magnitudes. Interestingly, greater pupil dilation changes were found during positive feedback (PF) presentation when there was lower uncertainty about a future negative feedback (NF); and by surprise during NF presentation. These results support the hypothesis that pupil dilation is a marker of learned uncertainty, and may be used as a marker of NA activity facing unfamiliar situations in humans. PMID:24427126
Motivated behavioral outcomes affect ratings of attractiveness.
Bernard, Larry C; Hardy, David J
2014-12-01
A relatively new theory of motivation posits that purposeful human behavior may be partly explained by multidimensional individual differences "traits of action" (motives). Its 15 motives can be characterized according to their purpose: individual integrity, competitiveness, and cooperativeness. Existing evidence supports the model on which the motives are based and the reliability and validity of strategies to assess them. This experiment tested whether the hypothetical results of consistent, motivated cooperative and competitive behavior could affect ratings of attractiveness. Male and female participants (N = 98; M age = 18.8, SD = 1.4) were shown 24 opposite-sex facial photos ranging in attractiveness. The photos were paired with one of three conditions representing theoretical outcomes that would result from low, control, and high levels of cooperative and competitive motives. As predicted, outcome descriptions representing high motive strength of six motives statistically significantly affected ratings of attractiveness. This result was independent of sex of participant and consistent with the theory. PMID:25457092
Polymer-attractive spherical cage system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arkın, Handan; Janke, Wolfhard
2013-01-01
We analyze the structural behavior of a single polymer chain inside an attractive sphere. Our model is composed of a coarse-grained polymer governed by Lennard-Jones interactions of the monomers and an attractive sphere potential which follows by integrating the monomer-monomer interaction over the (inner) surface of the sphere. By means of extensive multicanonical Monte Carlo simulations it is shown that the system exhibits a rich phase diagram in the adsorption strength-temperature ( ɛ - T) plane ranging from highly ordered and compact to extended and random coil structures and from desorbed to partially or even completely adsorbed conformations. These findings are identified with different energetic and structural observables. The resulting phase diagram in the ɛ - T plane is compared with that for a polymer adsorbing to a plane, attractive substrate obtained previously by Möddel, Bachmann, and one of the authors.
Self-attracting walk on heterogeneous networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Kanghun; Kyoung, Jaegu; Lee, D.-S.
2016-05-01
Understanding human mobility in cyberspace becomes increasingly important in this information era. While human mobility, memory-dependent and subdiffusive, is well understood in Euclidean space, it remains elusive in random heterogeneous networks like the World Wide Web. Here we study the diffusion characteristics of self-attracting walks, in which a walker is more likely to move to the locations visited previously than to unvisited ones, on scale-free networks. Under strong attraction, the number of distinct visited nodes grows linearly in time with larger coefficients in more heterogeneous networks. More interestingly, crossovers to sublinear growths occur in strongly heterogeneous networks. To understand these phenomena, we investigate the characteristic volumes and topology of the cluster of visited nodes and find that the reinforced attraction to hubs results in expediting exploration first but delaying later, as characterized by the scaling exponents that we derive. Our findings and analysis method can be useful for understanding various diffusion processes mediated by human.
Self-attracting walk on heterogeneous networks.
Kim, Kanghun; Kyoung, Jaegu; Lee, D-S
2016-05-01
Understanding human mobility in cyberspace becomes increasingly important in this information era. While human mobility, memory-dependent and subdiffusive, is well understood in Euclidean space, it remains elusive in random heterogeneous networks like the World Wide Web. Here we study the diffusion characteristics of self-attracting walks, in which a walker is more likely to move to the locations visited previously than to unvisited ones, on scale-free networks. Under strong attraction, the number of distinct visited nodes grows linearly in time with larger coefficients in more heterogeneous networks. More interestingly, crossovers to sublinear growths occur in strongly heterogeneous networks. To understand these phenomena, we investigate the characteristic volumes and topology of the cluster of visited nodes and find that the reinforced attraction to hubs results in expediting exploration first but delaying later, as characterized by the scaling exponents that we derive. Our findings and analysis method can be useful for understanding various diffusion processes mediated by human. PMID:27300913
Recognition bias and the physical attractiveness stereotype.
Rohner, Jean-Christophe; Rasmussen, Anders
2012-06-01
Previous studies have found a recognition bias for information consistent with the physical attractiveness stereotype (PAS), in which participants believe that they remember that attractive individuals have positive qualities and that unattractive individuals have negative qualities, regardless of what information actually occurred. The purpose of this research was to examine whether recognition bias for PAS congruent information is replicable and invariant across a variety of conditions (i.e. generalizable). The effects of nine different moderator variables were examined in two experiments. With a few exceptions, the effect of PAS congruence on recognition bias was independent of the moderator variables. The results suggest that the tendency to believe that one remembers information consistent with the physical attractiveness stereotype is a robust phenomenon.
Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C
2011-08-01
The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls
Heterogeneous Factor Analysis Models: A Bayesian Approach.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ansari, Asim; Jedidi, Kamel; Dube, Laurette
2002-01-01
Developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison in heterogeneous factor analysis. Tested the approach with synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study involving 54 consumers. Results show that traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in…
Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving
Johnson, Eric D.; Tubau, Elisabet
2015-01-01
Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian inferences relative to normalized formats (e.g., probabilities, percentages), both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on “transparent” Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e., transparent problem structures) at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct vs. incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual differences might influence this time point. PMID:26283976
A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tague, Jean M.
1973-01-01
A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…
A Bayesian approach to reliability and confidence
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Barnes, Ron
1989-01-01
The historical evolution of NASA's interest in quantitative measures of reliability assessment is outlined. The introduction of some quantitative methodologies into the Vehicle Reliability Branch of the Safety, Reliability and Quality Assurance (SR and QA) Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) was noted along with the development of the Extended Orbiter Duration--Weakest Link study which will utilize quantitative tools for a Bayesian statistical analysis. Extending the earlier work of NASA sponsor, Richard Heydorn, researchers were able to produce a consistent Bayesian estimate for the reliability of a component and hence by a simple extension for a system of components in some cases where the rate of failure is not constant but varies over time. Mechanical systems in general have this property since the reliability usually decreases markedly as the parts degrade over time. While they have been able to reduce the Bayesian estimator to a simple closed form for a large class of such systems, the form for the most general case needs to be attacked by the computer. Once a table is generated for this form, researchers will have a numerical form for the general solution. With this, the corresponding probability statements about the reliability of a system can be made in the most general setting. Note that the utilization of uniform Bayesian priors represents a worst case scenario in the sense that as researchers incorporate more expert opinion into the model, they will be able to improve the strength of the probability calculations.
Bayesian Estimation of Thermonuclear Reaction Rates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S.; Coc, A.; Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S.
2016-11-01
The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S-factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S-factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p,γ)3He, 3He(3He,2p)4He, and 3He(α,γ)7Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.
Diagnosis of Subtraction Bugs Using Bayesian Networks
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lee, Jihyun; Corter, James E.
2011-01-01
Diagnosis of misconceptions or "bugs" in procedural skills is difficult because of their unstable nature. This study addresses this problem by proposing and evaluating a probability-based approach to the diagnosis of bugs in children's multicolumn subtraction performance using Bayesian networks. This approach assumes a causal network relating…
A Bayesian Approach to Sensor Characterization
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Timucin, Dogan A.
2003-01-01
The physical model of a generic electro-optic sensor is derived and incorporated into a Bayesian framework for the estimation of key instrument parameters from calibration data. The sensor characterization thus achieved enables optimal subsequent removal of instrument effects from field data, leading to the highest possible accuracy in the retrieved physical quantities.
Incremental Bayesian Category Learning from Natural Language
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Frermann, Lea; Lapata, Mirella
2016-01-01
Models of category learning have been extensively studied in cognitive science and primarily tested on perceptual abstractions or artificial stimuli. In this paper, we focus on categories acquired from natural language stimuli, that is, words (e.g., "chair" is a member of the furniture category). We present a Bayesian model that, unlike…
Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas
2014-05-01
Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.
Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.
2011-01-01
Karabatsos and Walker (2011) introduced a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model. Through analyses of real and simulated data, they showed that the BNP regression model outperforms other parametric and nonparametric regression models of common use, in terms of predictive accuracy of the outcome (dependent) variable. The other,…
Bayesian Estimation Supersedes the "t" Test
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kruschke, John K.
2013-01-01
Bayesian estimation for 2 groups provides complete distributions of credible values for the effect size, group means and their difference, standard deviations and their difference, and the normality of the data. The method handles outliers. The decision rule can accept the null value (unlike traditional "t" tests) when certainty in the estimate is…
Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving.
Johnson, Eric D; Tubau, Elisabet
2015-01-01
Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian inferences relative to normalized formats (e.g., probabilities, percentages), both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on "transparent" Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e., transparent problem structures) at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct vs. incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual differences might influence this time point.
Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey.
Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro
2014-01-01
Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind-morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging-, thereby broadening the scope-molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical- of the brain aspects to be studied.
Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.
Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto
2015-05-10
Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age.
Evaluating Individualized Reading Programs: A Bayesian Model.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Maxwell, Martha
Simple Bayesian approaches can be applied to answer specific questions in evaluating an individualized reading program. A small reading and study skills program located in the counseling center of a major research university collected and compiled data on student characteristics such as class, number of sessions attended, grade point average, and…
Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey.
Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro
2014-01-01
Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind-morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging-, thereby broadening the scope-molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical- of the brain aspects to be studied. PMID:25360109
Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.
2015-01-01
The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…
Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey
Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro
2014-01-01
Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind–morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging–, thereby broadening the scope–molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical– of the brain aspects to be studied. PMID:25360109
BART: Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer fitting code
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cubillos, Patricio; Blecic, Jasmina; Harrington, Joseph; Rojo, Patricio; Lust, Nate; Bowman, Oliver; Stemm, Madison; Foster, Andrew; Loredo, Thomas J.; Fortney, Jonathan; Madhusudhan, Nikku
2016-08-01
BART implements a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-driven, radiative-transfer scheme for extracting parameters from spectra of planetary atmospheres. BART combines a thermochemical-equilibrium code, a one-dimensional line-by-line radiative-transfer code, and the Multi-core Markov-chain Monte Carlo statistical module to constrain the atmospheric temperature and chemical-abundance profiles of exoplanets.
Bayesian network learning for natural hazard analyses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vogel, K.; Riggelsen, C.; Korup, O.; Scherbaum, F.
2014-09-01
Modern natural hazards research requires dealing with several uncertainties that arise from limited process knowledge, measurement errors, censored and incomplete observations, and the intrinsic randomness of the governing processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analyses are still widely used in quantitative hazard assessments despite the pitfall of misestimating the hazard and any ensuing risks. In this paper we show that Bayesian networks offer a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of uncertainties encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although Bayesian networks are well studied in theory, their application to real-world data is far from straightforward, and requires specific tailoring and adaptation of existing algorithms. We offer suggestions as how to tackle frequently arising problems in this context and mainly concentrate on the handling of continuous variables, incomplete data sets, and the interaction of both. By way of three case studies from earthquake, flood, and landslide research, we demonstrate the method of data-driven Bayesian network learning, and showcase the flexibility, applicability, and benefits of this approach. Our results offer fresh and partly counterintuitive insights into well-studied multivariate problems of earthquake-induced ground motion prediction, accurate flood damage quantification, and spatially explicit landslide prediction at the regional scale. In particular, we highlight how Bayesian networks help to express information flow and independence assumptions between candidate predictors. Such knowledge is pivotal in providing scientists and decision makers with well-informed strategies for selecting adequate predictor variables for quantitative natural hazard assessments.
An Integrated Bayesian Model for DIF Analysis
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Soares, Tufi M.; Goncalves, Flavio B.; Gamerman, Dani
2009-01-01
In this article, an integrated Bayesian model for differential item functioning (DIF) analysis is proposed. The model is integrated in the sense of modeling the responses along with the DIF analysis. This approach allows DIF detection and explanation in a simultaneous setup. Previous empirical studies and/or subjective beliefs about the item…
Malaria Parasites Produce Volatile Mosquito Attractants
Kelly, Megan; Su, Chih-Ying; Schaber, Chad; Crowley, Jan R.; Hsu, Fong-Fu; Carlson, John R.
2015-01-01
ABSTRACT The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum contains a nonphotosynthetic plastid organelle that possesses plant-like metabolic pathways. Plants use the plastidial isoprenoid biosynthesis pathway to produce volatile odorants, known as terpenes. In this work, we describe the volatile chemical profile of cultured malaria parasites. Among the identified compounds are several plant-like terpenes and terpene derivatives, including known mosquito attractants. We establish the molecular identity of the odorant receptors of the malaria mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae, which responds to these compounds. The malaria parasite produces volatile signals that are recognized by mosquitoes and may thereby mediate host attraction and facilitate transmission. PMID:25805727
Facial Features: What Women Perceive as Attractive and What Men Consider Attractive.
Muñoz-Reyes, José Antonio; Iglesias-Julios, Marta; Pita, Miguel; Turiegano, Enrique
2015-01-01
Attractiveness plays an important role in social exchange and in the ability to attract potential mates, especially for women. Several facial traits have been described as reliable indicators of attractiveness in women, but very few studies consider the influence of several measurements simultaneously. In addition, most studies consider just one of two assessments to directly measure attractiveness: either self-evaluation or men's ratings. We explored the relationship between these two estimators of attractiveness and a set of facial traits in a sample of 266 young Spanish women. These traits are: facial fluctuating asymmetry, facial averageness, facial sexual dimorphism, and facial maturity. We made use of the advantage of having recently developed methodologies that enabled us to measure these variables in real faces. We also controlled for three other widely used variables: age, body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio. The inclusion of many different variables allowed us to detect any possible interaction between the features described that could affect attractiveness perception. Our results show that facial fluctuating asymmetry is related both to self-perceived and male-rated attractiveness. Other facial traits are related only to one direct attractiveness measurement: facial averageness and facial maturity only affect men's ratings. Unmodified faces are closer to natural stimuli than are manipulated photographs, and therefore our results support the importance of employing unmodified faces to analyse the factors affecting attractiveness. We also discuss the relatively low equivalence between self-perceived and male-rated attractiveness and how various anthropometric traits are relevant to them in different ways. Finally, we highlight the need to perform integrated-variable studies to fully understand female attractiveness. PMID:26161954
Facial Features: What Women Perceive as Attractive and What Men Consider Attractive.
Muñoz-Reyes, José Antonio; Iglesias-Julios, Marta; Pita, Miguel; Turiegano, Enrique
2015-01-01
Attractiveness plays an important role in social exchange and in the ability to attract potential mates, especially for women. Several facial traits have been described as reliable indicators of attractiveness in women, but very few studies consider the influence of several measurements simultaneously. In addition, most studies consider just one of two assessments to directly measure attractiveness: either self-evaluation or men's ratings. We explored the relationship between these two estimators of attractiveness and a set of facial traits in a sample of 266 young Spanish women. These traits are: facial fluctuating asymmetry, facial averageness, facial sexual dimorphism, and facial maturity. We made use of the advantage of having recently developed methodologies that enabled us to measure these variables in real faces. We also controlled for three other widely used variables: age, body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio. The inclusion of many different variables allowed us to detect any possible interaction between the features described that could affect attractiveness perception. Our results show that facial fluctuating asymmetry is related both to self-perceived and male-rated attractiveness. Other facial traits are related only to one direct attractiveness measurement: facial averageness and facial maturity only affect men's ratings. Unmodified faces are closer to natural stimuli than are manipulated photographs, and therefore our results support the importance of employing unmodified faces to analyse the factors affecting attractiveness. We also discuss the relatively low equivalence between self-perceived and male-rated attractiveness and how various anthropometric traits are relevant to them in different ways. Finally, we highlight the need to perform integrated-variable studies to fully understand female attractiveness.
Facial Features: What Women Perceive as Attractive and What Men Consider Attractive
Muñoz-Reyes, José Antonio; Iglesias-Julios, Marta; Pita, Miguel; Turiegano, Enrique
2015-01-01
Attractiveness plays an important role in social exchange and in the ability to attract potential mates, especially for women. Several facial traits have been described as reliable indicators of attractiveness in women, but very few studies consider the influence of several measurements simultaneously. In addition, most studies consider just one of two assessments to directly measure attractiveness: either self-evaluation or men's ratings. We explored the relationship between these two estimators of attractiveness and a set of facial traits in a sample of 266 young Spanish women. These traits are: facial fluctuating asymmetry, facial averageness, facial sexual dimorphism, and facial maturity. We made use of the advantage of having recently developed methodologies that enabled us to measure these variables in real faces. We also controlled for three other widely used variables: age, body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio. The inclusion of many different variables allowed us to detect any possible interaction between the features described that could affect attractiveness perception. Our results show that facial fluctuating asymmetry is related both to self-perceived and male-rated attractiveness. Other facial traits are related only to one direct attractiveness measurement: facial averageness and facial maturity only affect men's ratings. Unmodified faces are closer to natural stimuli than are manipulated photographs, and therefore our results support the importance of employing unmodified faces to analyse the factors affecting attractiveness. We also discuss the relatively low equivalence between self-perceived and male-rated attractiveness and how various anthropometric traits are relevant to them in different ways. Finally, we highlight the need to perform integrated-variable studies to fully understand female attractiveness. PMID:26161954
Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weinberg, Martin D.
2013-09-01
This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.
A tutorial on Bayesian Normal linear regression
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klauenberg, Katy; Wübbeler, Gerd; Mickan, Bodo; Harris, Peter; Elster, Clemens
2015-12-01
Regression is a common task in metrology and often applied to calibrate instruments, evaluate inter-laboratory comparisons or determine fundamental constants, for example. Yet, a regression model cannot be uniquely formulated as a measurement function, and consequently the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its supplements are not applicable directly. Bayesian inference, however, is well suited to regression tasks, and has the advantage of accounting for additional a priori information, which typically robustifies analyses. Furthermore, it is anticipated that future revisions of the GUM shall also embrace the Bayesian view. Guidance on Bayesian inference for regression tasks is largely lacking in metrology. For linear regression models with Gaussian measurement errors this tutorial gives explicit guidance. Divided into three steps, the tutorial first illustrates how a priori knowledge, which is available from previous experiments, can be translated into prior distributions from a specific class. These prior distributions have the advantage of yielding analytical, closed form results, thus avoiding the need to apply numerical methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Secondly, formulas for the posterior results are given, explained and illustrated, and software implementations are provided. In the third step, Bayesian tools are used to assess the assumptions behind the suggested approach. These three steps (prior elicitation, posterior calculation, and robustness to prior uncertainty and model adequacy) are critical to Bayesian inference. The general guidance given here for Normal linear regression tasks is accompanied by a simple, but real-world, metrological example. The calibration of a flow device serves as a running example and illustrates the three steps. It is shown that prior knowledge from previous calibrations of the same sonic nozzle enables robust predictions even for extrapolations.
Salience and Attention in Surprisal-Based Accounts of Language Processing
Zarcone, Alessandra; van Schijndel, Marten; Vogels, Jorrig; Demberg, Vera
2016-01-01
The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range of linguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g., visual salience of objects in the world, acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds) and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g., prominence of recently mentioned or topical referents) have been shown to influence language comprehension and production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates of cognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage using information-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect language processing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequately elucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability is still open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminological inconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalize upon work in visual cognition in order to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguistics and their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects of linguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attention and relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides a unified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levels of processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes and between predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus. PMID:27375525
The contribution of surprise to the prediction based modulation of fMRI responses.
Amado, Catarina; Hermann, Petra; Kovács, Petra; Grotheer, Mareike; Vidnyánszky, Zoltán; Kovács, Gyula
2016-04-01
In recent years, several functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies showed that correct stimulus predictions reduce the neural responses when compared to surprising events (Egner et al., 2010). Further, it has been shown that such fulfilled expectations enhance the magnitude of repetition suppression (RS, i.e. a decreased neuronal response after the repetition of a given stimulus) in face selective visual cortex as well (Summerfield et al., 2008). Current MEG and neuroimaging studies suggest that the underlying mechanisms of expectation effects are independent from these of RS (Grotheer and Kovács, 2015; Todorovic and Lange, 2012). However, it is not clear as of today how perceptual expectations modulate the neural responses: is the difference between correctly predicted and surprising stimuli due to a genuine response reduction for correctly predicted stimuli or is it due to an increased response for surprising stimuli? Therefore, here we used a modified version of the paradigm of Grotheer and Kovács (2015) to induce predictions independently from repetition probability by presenting pairs of faces (female, male or infant) that were either repeated or alternating. Orthogonally to this, predictions were manipulated by the gender of the first face within each pair so that it signaled high, low or equal probability of repetitions. An unpredicted, neutral condition with equal probabilities for alternating and repeated trials was used to identify the role of surprising and enhancing modulations. Similarly, to Grotheer and Kovács (2015), we found significant RS and significant expectation effect in the FFA. Importantly, we observed larger response for surprising events in comparison to the neutral and correctly predicted conditions for alternating trials. Altogether, these results emphasize the role of surprise in prediction effects. PMID:26873275
Salience and Attention in Surprisal-Based Accounts of Language Processing.
Zarcone, Alessandra; van Schijndel, Marten; Vogels, Jorrig; Demberg, Vera
2016-01-01
The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range of linguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g., visual salience of objects in the world, acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds) and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g., prominence of recently mentioned or topical referents) have been shown to influence language comprehension and production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates of cognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage using information-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect language processing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequately elucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability is still open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminological inconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalize upon work in visual cognition in order to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguistics and their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects of linguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attention and relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides a unified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levels of processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes and between predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus. PMID:27375525
An empirical Bayesian approach for model-based inference of cellular signaling networks
2009-01-01
Background A common challenge in systems biology is to infer mechanistic descriptions of biological process given limited observations of a biological system. Mathematical models are frequently used to represent a belief about the causal relationships among proteins within a signaling network. Bayesian methods provide an attractive framework for inferring the validity of those beliefs in the context of the available data. However, efficient sampling of high-dimensional parameter space and appropriate convergence criteria provide barriers for implementing an empirical Bayesian approach. The objective of this study was to apply an Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to a typical study of cellular signaling pathways. Results As an illustrative example, a kinetic model for the early signaling events associated with the epidermal growth factor (EGF) signaling network was calibrated against dynamic measurements observed in primary rat hepatocytes. A convergence criterion, based upon the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, was applied to the model predictions. The posterior distributions of the parameters exhibited complicated structure, including significant covariance between specific parameters and a broad range of variance among the parameters. The model predictions, in contrast, were narrowly distributed and were used to identify areas of agreement among a collection of experimental studies. Conclusion In summary, an empirical Bayesian approach was developed for inferring the confidence that one can place in a particular model that describes signal transduction mechanisms and for inferring inconsistencies in experimental measurements. PMID:19900289
Hip Fracture in the Elderly: A Re-Analysis of the EPIDOS Study with Causal Bayesian Networks
Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie
2015-01-01
Objectives Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. Setting EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Results Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Conclusion Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people. PMID:25822373
Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.
Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus
2015-08-01
Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.
Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.
Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus
2015-08-01
Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach. PMID:26442771
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cavior, Norman; And Others
1975-01-01
Tenth and twelfth grade males and females who knew each other judged, within grade levels, their classmates on physical attractiveness (PA), perceived attitude similarity (PAS), and interpersonal attraction (IA). Regression analyses supported the hypotheses that PA and PAS are positively correlated. (Author)
Ordinal Position, Approval Motivation, and Interpersonal Attraction
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nowicki, Stephen, Jr.
1971-01-01
Results of the study suggest that birth-order effects might be included within the wider framework of approval-dependency theory. Females tend to account for a significant share of birth-order effects. More particularly, firstborn females accounted for much of the differences in expressed attraction as well as need for social approval. (Author)
Fish Aversion and Attraction to Selected Agrichemicals.
da Rosa, João Gabriel Santos; de Abreu, Murilo Sander; Giacomini, Ana Cristina Varrone; Koakoski, Gessi; Kalichak, Fabiana; Oliveira, Thiago Acosta; de Alcântara Barcellos, Heloísa Helena; Barreto, Rodrigo Egydio; Barcellos, Leonardo José Gil
2016-10-01
In agriculture intensive areas, fishponds and natural water bodies located in close proximity to these fields receive water with variable amounts of agrichemicals. Consequently, toxic compounds reach nontarget organisms. For instance, aquatic organisms can be exposed to tebuconazole-based fungicides (TBF), glyphosate-based herbicides (GBH), and atrazine-based herbicides (ABH) that are potentially dangerous, which motivates the following question: Are these agrichemicals attractant or aversive to fish? To answer this question, adult zebrafish were tested in a chamber that allows fish to escape from or seek a lane of contaminated water. This attraction and aversion paradigm was evaluated with zebrafish in the presence of an acute contamination with these compounds. We showed that only GBH was aversive to fish, whereas ABH and TBF caused neither attraction nor aversion for zebrafish. Thus, these chemicals do not impose an extra toxic risk by being an attractant for fish, although TBF and ABH can be more deleterious, because they induce no aversive response. Because the uptake and bioaccumulation of chemicals in fish seems to be time- and dose-dependent, a fish that remains longer in the presence of these substances tends to absorb higher concentrations than one that escapes from contaminated sites. PMID:27423874
Attracting Clients to Service-Oriented Programs.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Disney, Diane M.
One of a series of manuals developed by the Home and Community-Based Career Education Project, the outreach component publication describes how the project went about attracting clients for its adult vocational counseling services. Sections include: creating a publicity campaign, using an advertising agency, creating products for the mass media,…
The Pioneer Anomaly as a Coulomb Attraction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morris, Steven
2016-06-01
The anomalous acceleration of the Pioneer 10 and Pioneer 11 spacecraft can be explained as a Coulomb attraction between the positively-charged Solar System (due to cosmic rays) and the negatively-charged spacecraft (due to alpha-particle emission from the radioisotope thermoelectric generators).
Scottish Visitor Attractions: Managerial Competence Requirements
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Watson, Sandra; McCracken, Martin; Hughes, Moira
2004-01-01
This paper presents the findings from a study into managerial competence in the Scottish visitor attraction sector. It provides an insight into the range, diversity and perceived importance of current and future competences highlighting differences based on gender, age, size, level of training and location. Although the main findings reveal a…
Stragegies for Attracting and Retaining Teachers
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bland, Paul; Church, Edwin; Luo, Mingchu
2014-01-01
Attracting and retaining high quality teachers is a challenge for many school districts. This is especially true in a time of increased accountability and limited resources. This report details best practice in the training, hiring, improvement, and retention of high quality teaching staff. The authors explain how school leaders can attract…
Body Type Attractiveness Preferences of the Aged.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Portnoy, Enid J.
A study explored the relationship between body types and four attraction dimensions (physical, social, task, and communication) as perceived by older adults (mean age 68). Subjects, 35 males and 73 females in private residences and senior citizen centers, were shown three same-sex body silhouettes representing the older ectomorph, mesomorph, and…
Effects of bowing on perception of attractiveness.
Osugi, Takayuki; Kawahara, Jun I
2015-07-01
Bowing is a greeting behavior. The present study examined the modulation effect of bowing on perception of attractiveness. In each trial, a portrait digitized from university yearbooks was presented on a computer screen. The portrait was mildly tilted toward participants to simulate a greeting bow (25-degree angle). Participants evaluated the subjective attractiveness of the face using a visual analog scale (0-100). The mean attractiveness judgment of the bowing portrait was significantly higher relative to that of the bending-backward or standing-still control conditions (Experiment 1). Additional control experiments revealed that alternative accounts relying on apparent spatial proximity and physical characteristics could not solely explain the effect of bowing (Experiment 2) and indicated that the effect was specific to objects perceived as faces (Experiment 3). Furthermore, observers' in-return bowing behavior did not reduce the bowing effect (Experiment 4), and bowing motion increased the ratings of subjective politeness and submissiveness (Experiment 5). Finally, tilting the 3D faces elicited the same effect from observers as did tilting the still photos (Experiment 6). These results suggest that a tilting motion of portraits (or images of face-like objects) mimicking bowing enhances perceived attractiveness, at least as measured in a culture familiar with greeting by bowing. PMID:25813741
Floral attractants for monitoring pest moths
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Many species of moths, including pest species, are known to be attracted to volatile compounds emitted by flowers. Some of the flower species studied included glossy abelia, night-blooming jessamine, three species of Gaura, honeysuckle, lesser butterfly orchid, and Oregongrape. The volatiles relea...
The shape and dynamics of local attraction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strömbom, D.; Siljestam, M.; Park, J.; Sumpter, D. J. T.
2015-11-01
Moving animal groups, such as flocks of birds or schools of fish, exhibit a varity of self-organized complex dynamical behaviors and shapes. This kind of flocking behavior has been studied using self-propelled particle models, in which the "particles" interact with their nearest neighbors through repulsion, attraction and alignment responses. In particular, it has been shown that models based on attraction alone can generate a range of dynamic groups in 2D, with periodic boundary conditions, and in the absence of repulsion. Here we investigate the effects of changing these conditions on the type of groups observed in the model. We show that replacing the periodic boundary conditions with a weak global attaction term in 2D, and extending the model to 3D does not significantly change the type of groups observed. We also provide a description of how attraction strength and blind angle determine the groups generated in the 3D version of the model. Finally, we show that adding repulsion do change the type of groups oberved, making them appear and behave more like real moving animal groups. Our results suggest that many biological instances of collective motion may be explained without assuming that animals explicitly align with each other. Instead, complex collective motion is explained by the interplay of attraction and repulsion forces. Supplementary material in the form of four mp4 files available from the Journal web page at http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50093-5
Gelation and phase separation of attractive colloids
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, Peter James
2008-07-01
I present several scientific and technical contributions in this thesis. I demonstrate that the gelation of spherical particles with isotropic, short-range attractive interactions is initiated by spinodal decomposition, a thermodynamic instability that triggers the formation of clusters that span and dynamically arrest to create a gel. This simple, universal gelation picture does not depend on microscopic system-specific details---thus broadly describing any particle system with short-range attractions---and suggests that gelation, often considered a purely kinetic phenomenon, is in fact a direct consequence of equilibrium liquid-gas phase separation. I also demonstrate that spherical particles with isotropic attractive interactions exhibit a stable phase---a fluid of particle clusters---that persists on experimental timescales even in the absence of any long-range Coulombic charge repulsion; this contrasts some expectations based on simulation and theory. I describe a new capability I created by integrating accelerated image processing software that I wrote into a high-speed confocal microscope system that I developed: active target-locking, the ability to follow freely-moving complex objects within a microscope sample, even as they change size, shape, and orientation---in real time. Finally, I report continuous, month-long observations of near-critical spinodal decomposition of colloids with isotropic attractions, aboard the International Space Station. I also include detailed descriptions, with examples and illustrations, of the tools and techniques that I have developed to produce these results.
Are high-quality mates always attractive?
Holveck, Marie-Jeanne; Verhulst, Simon; Fawcett, Tim W
2010-01-01
Sexual selection theory posits that females should choose mates in a way that maximizes their reproductive success. But what exactly is the optimal choice? Most empirical research is based on the assumption that females seek a male of the highest possible quality (in terms of the genes or resources he can provide), and hence show directional preferences for indicators of male quality. This implies that attractiveness and quality should be highly correlated. However, females frequently differ in what they find attractive. New theoretical and empirical insights provide mounting evidence that a female’s own quality biases her judgement of male attractiveness, such that male quality and attractiveness do not always coincide. A recent experiment in songbirds demonstrated for the first time that manipulation of female condition can lead to divergent female preferences, with low-quality females actively preferring low-quality males over high-quality males. This result is in line with theory on state-dependent mate choice and is reminiscent of assortative mating preferences in humans. Here we discuss the implications of this work for the study of mate preferences. PMID:20714411
Visual cues to female physical attractiveness.
Tovée, M J; Maisey, D S; Emery, J L; Cornelissen, P L
1999-01-22
Evolutionary psychology suggests that a woman's sexual attractiveness is based on cues of health and reproductive potential. In recent years, research has focused on the ratio of the width of the waist to the width of the hips (the waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). A low WHR (i.e. a curvaceous body) is believed to correspond to the optimal fat distribution for high fertility, and so this shape should be highly attractive. In this paper we present evidence that weight scaled for height (the body mass index (BMI)) is the primary determinant of sexual attractiveness rather than WHR. BMI is also strongly linked to health and reproductive potential. Furthermore, we show how covariation of apparent BMI and WHR in previous studies led to the overestimation of the importance of WHR in the perception of female attractiveness. Finally, we show how visual cues, such as the perimeter-area ratio (PAR), can provide an accurate and reliable index of an individual's BMI and could be used by an observer to differentiate between potential partners. PMID:10097394
Radial Motion of Two Mutually Attracting Particles
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mungan, Carl E.
2009-01-01
A pair of masses or opposite-sign charges released from rest will move directly toward each other under the action of the inverse-distance-squared force of attraction between them. An exact expression for the separation distance as a function of time can only be found by numerically inverting the solution of a differential equation. A simpler,…
Trouble for the most attractive channel hypothesis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holdom, B.; Roux, F. S.
1999-01-01
We show that the next-to-leading corrections to the kernel of the gap equation can be large and of opposite sign to the lowest order kernel, in the presence of a gauge boson mass. This calls into question the reliability of the most attractive channel hypothesis.
Business Partnerships: Sex and Attractiveness Stereotypes.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kushner, T.
1982-01-01
Examined the preference for men over women as business partners in three studies. Results showed that both men and women tended to use masculine names when naming imaginary partners, and chose attractive males most and unattractive females least when choosing imaginary partners from photographs. (WAS)
Stereotyping Physical Attractiveness: A Sociocultural Perspective.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dion, Karen K.; And Others
1990-01-01
Studies the tendency to stereotype physical attractiveness and identification in a collectivist culture using a group of 53 Chinese Canadian college students. Finds that introverts tended to be more prone to stereotyping than extroverts. Subjects with the highest cultural involvement were least prone to stereotyping with regard to social…
Effects of sexual dimorphism on facial attractiveness.
Perrett, D I; Lee, K J; Penton-Voak, I; Rowland, D; Yoshikawa, S; Burt, D M; Henzi, S P; Castles, D L; Akamatsu, S
1998-08-27
Testosterone-dependent secondary sexual characteristics in males may signal immunological competence and are sexually selected for in several species. In humans, oestrogen-dependent characteristics of the female body correlate with health and reproductive fitness and are found attractive. Enhancing the sexual dimorphism of human faces should raise attractiveness by enhancing sex-hormone-related cues to youth and fertility in females, and to dominance and immunocompetence in males. Here we report the results of asking subjects to choose the most attractive faces from continua that enhanced or diminished differences between the average shape of female and male faces. As predicted, subjects preferred feminized to average shapes of a female face. This preference applied across UK and Japanese populations but was stronger for within-population judgements, which indicates that attractiveness cues are learned. Subjects preferred feminized to average or masculinized shapes of a male face. Enhancing masculine facial characteristics increased both perceived dominance and negative attributions (for example, coldness or dishonesty) relevant to relationships and paternal investment. These results indicate a selection pressure that limits sexual dimorphism and encourages neoteny in humans. PMID:9732869
Fish Aversion and Attraction to Selected Agrichemicals.
da Rosa, João Gabriel Santos; de Abreu, Murilo Sander; Giacomini, Ana Cristina Varrone; Koakoski, Gessi; Kalichak, Fabiana; Oliveira, Thiago Acosta; de Alcântara Barcellos, Heloísa Helena; Barreto, Rodrigo Egydio; Barcellos, Leonardo José Gil
2016-10-01
In agriculture intensive areas, fishponds and natural water bodies located in close proximity to these fields receive water with variable amounts of agrichemicals. Consequently, toxic compounds reach nontarget organisms. For instance, aquatic organisms can be exposed to tebuconazole-based fungicides (TBF), glyphosate-based herbicides (GBH), and atrazine-based herbicides (ABH) that are potentially dangerous, which motivates the following question: Are these agrichemicals attractant or aversive to fish? To answer this question, adult zebrafish were tested in a chamber that allows fish to escape from or seek a lane of contaminated water. This attraction and aversion paradigm was evaluated with zebrafish in the presence of an acute contamination with these compounds. We showed that only GBH was aversive to fish, whereas ABH and TBF caused neither attraction nor aversion for zebrafish. Thus, these chemicals do not impose an extra toxic risk by being an attractant for fish, although TBF and ABH can be more deleterious, because they induce no aversive response. Because the uptake and bioaccumulation of chemicals in fish seems to be time- and dose-dependent, a fish that remains longer in the presence of these substances tends to absorb higher concentrations than one that escapes from contaminated sites.
Facial Attractiveness Assessment using Illustrated Questionnairers
MESAROS, ANCA; CORNEA, DANIELA; CIOARA, LIVIU; DUDEA, DIANA; MESAROS, MICHAELA; BADEA, MINDRA
2015-01-01
Introduction. An attractive facial appearance is considered nowadays to be a decisive factor in establishing successful interactions between humans. In relation to this topic, scientific literature states that some of the facial features have more impact then others, and important authors revealed that certain proportions between different anthropometrical landmarks are mandatory for an attractive facial appearance. Aim. Our study aims to assess if certain facial features count differently in people’s opinion while assessing facial attractiveness in correlation with factors such as age, gender, specific training and culture. Material and methods. A 5-item multiple choice illustrated questionnaire was presented to 236 dental students. The Photoshop CS3 software was used in order to obtain the sets of images for the illustrated questions. The original image was handpicked from the internet by a panel of young dentists from a series of 15 pictures of people considered to have attractive faces. For each of the questions, the images presented were simulating deviations from the ideally symmetric and proportionate face. The sets of images consisted in multiple variations of deviations mixed with the original photo. Junior and sophomore year students from our dental medical school, having different nationalities were required to participate in our questionnaire. Simple descriptive statistics were used to interpret the data. Results. Assessing the results obtained from the questionnaire it was observed that a majority of students considered as unattractive the overdevelopment of the lower third, while the initial image with perfect symmetry and proportion was considered as the most attractive by only 38.9% of the subjects. Likewise, regarding the symmetry 36.86% considered unattractive the canting of the inter-commissural line. The interviewed subjects considered that for a face to be attractive it needs to have harmonious proportions between the different facial
Plant Volatile Analogues Strengthen Attractiveness to Insect
Sun, Yufeng; Yu, Hao; Zhou, Jing-Jiang; Pickett, John A.; Wu, Kongming
2014-01-01
Green leaf bug Apolygus lucorum (Meyer-Dür) is one of the major pests in agriculture. Management of A. lucorum was largely achieved by using pesticides. However, the increasing population of A. lucorum since growing Bt cotton widely and the increased awareness of ecoenvironment and agricultural product safety makes their population-control very challenging. Therefore this study was conducted to explore a novel ecological approach, synthetic plant volatile analogues, to manage the pest. Here, plant volatile analogues were first designed and synthesized by combining the bioactive components of β-ionone and benzaldehyde. The stabilities of β-ionone, benzaldehyde and analogue 3 g were tested. The electroantennogram (EAG) responses of A. lucorum adult antennae to the analogues were recorded. And the behavior assay and filed experiment were also conducted. In this study, thirteen analogues were acquired. The analogue 3 g was demonstrated to be more stable than β-ionone and benzaldehyde in the environment. Many of the analogues elicited EAG responses, and the EAG response values to 3 g remained unchanged during seven-day period. 3 g was also demonstrated to be attractive to A. lucorum adults in the laboratory behavior experiment and in the field. Its attractiveness persisted longer than β-ionone and benzaldehyde. This indicated that 3 g can strengthen attractiveness to insect and has potential as an attractant. Our results suggest that synthetic plant volatile analogues can strengthen attractiveness to insect. This is the first published study about synthetic plant volatile analogues that have the potential to be used in pest control. Our results will support a new ecological approach to pest control and it will be helpful to ecoenvironment and agricultural product safety. PMID:24911460
Facial Diversity and Infant Preferences for Attractive Faces.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Langlois, Judith H.; And Others
1991-01-01
Three studies examined infant preferences for attractive faces of White males, White females, Black females, and infants. Infants viewed pairs of faces rated for attractiveness by adults. Preferences for attractive faces were found for all facial types. (BC)
Differences in Expressivity Based on Attractiveness: Target or Perceiver Effects?
Rennels, Jennifer L.; Kayl, Andrea J.
2015-01-01
A significant association exists between adults’ expressivity and facial attractiveness, but it is unclear whether the association is linear or significant only at the extremes of attractiveness. It is also unclear whether attractive persons actually display more positive expressivity than unattractive persons (target effects) or whether high and low attractiveness influences expressivity valence judgments (perceiver effects). Experiment 1 demonstrated adult ratings of attractiveness were predictive of expressivity valence only for high and low attractive females and medium attractive males. Experiment 2 showed that low attractive females actually display more negative expressivity than medium and high attractive females, but there were no target effects for males. Also, attractiveness influenced expressivity valence judgments (perceiver effects) for both females and males. Our findings demonstrate that low attractive females are at a particular disadvantage during social interactions due to their low attractiveness, actual displays of negative expressivity, and perceptions of their negative expressivity. PMID:26366010
The thin plate as a regularizer in Bayesian SPECT reconstruction
Lee, Soo-Jin; Gindi, G.
1996-12-31
The attractions of the maximum-likelihood (ML) method for SPECT reconstruction, namely accurate system and noise modelling, are tempered by its unstable nature. The variety of Bayesian MAP approaches proposed in recent years can both stabilize the reconstructions and lead to better bias and variance. Our own work used a nonquadratic prior (the weak plate) that imposed piecewise smoothness on the first derivative of the solution to achieve results superior to those obtained using a nonquadratic prior (the weak membrane) that imposed piecewise smoothness of the zeroth derivative. By relaxing the requirement of imposing spatial discontinuities and using instead a quadratic (no discontinuities) smoothing prior, algorithms become easier to analyze, solutions easier to compute, and hyperparameter calculation becomes less of a problem. In this work, we investigated whether the advantages of weak plate relative to weak membrane are retained when non-piecewise quadratic versions - the thin plate and membrane priors - are used. We used an EM-OSL (one-step-late) algorithm to compute MAP solutions with both these priors, and found that the thin plate exhibits better bias behavior than the membrane at little cost in variance. Also, both priors outperform ML-EM in terms of bias and variance if practical stopping criteria are used for ML-EM. The net conclusion is that, while quadratic smoothing priors are not as good as piecewise versions, the simple modification of the membrane model to the thin late model leads to improved reconstructions in edge regions.
Dynamic Bayesian filtering for real-time seismic analyses
Blough, D.K.; Rohay, A.C.; Anderson, K.K.; Nicholson, W.L.
1994-04-01
State space modeling, which includes techniques such as the Kalman filter, has been used to analyze many non-stationary time series. The ability of these dynamic models to adapt and track changes in the underlying process makes them attractive for application to the real-time analysis of three-component seismic waveforms. The authors are investigating the application of state space models formulated as Bayesian time series models to phase detection, polarization, and spectrogram estimation of seismograms. This approach removes the need to specify data windows in the time series for time averaging estimation (e.g., spectrum estimation). They are using this model to isolate particular seismic phases based on polarization parameters that are determined at a spectrum of frequencies. They plan to use polarization parameters, frequency spectra, and magnitudes to discriminate between different types of seismic sources. They present the application of this technique to artificial time series and to several real seismic events including the Non-Proliferation Experiment (NPE) two nuclear tests and three earthquakes from the Nevada Test site, as recorded on several regional broadband seismic stations. A preliminary result of this analysis indicates that earthquakes and explosions can potentially be discriminated on the bass of the polarization characteristics of scattered seismic phases. However, the chemical (NPE) and nuclear explosions appear to have very similar polarization characteristics.
A Bayesian Assignment Method for Ambiguous Bisulfite Short Reads.
Tran, Hong; Wu, Xiaowei; Tithi, Saima; Sun, Ming-an; Xie, Hehuang; Zhang, Liqing
2016-01-01
DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification critical for normal development and diseases. The determination of genome-wide DNA methylation at single-nucleotide resolution is made possible by sequencing bisulfite treated DNA with next generation high-throughput sequencing. However, aligning bisulfite short reads to a reference genome remains challenging as only a limited proportion of them (around 50-70%) can be aligned uniquely; a significant proportion, known as multireads, are mapped to multiple locations and thus discarded from downstream analyses, causing financial waste and biased methylation inference. To address this issue, we develop a Bayesian model that assigns multireads to their most likely locations based on the posterior probability derived from information hidden in uniquely aligned reads. Analyses of both simulated data and real hairpin bisulfite sequencing data show that our method can effectively assign approximately 70% of the multireads to their best locations with up to 90% accuracy, leading to a significant increase in the overall mapping efficiency. Moreover, the assignment model shows robust performance with low coverage depth, making it particularly attractive considering the prohibitive cost of bisulfite sequencing. Additionally, results show that longer reads help improve the performance of the assignment model. The assignment model is also robust to varying degrees of methylation and varying sequencing error rates. Finally, incorporating prior knowledge on mutation rate and context specific methylation level into the assignment model increases inference accuracy. The assignment model is implemented in the BAM-ABS package and freely available at https://github.com/zhanglabvt/BAM_ABS.
Connotations of Surprise in the Conditionals 'To' and 'Tara' in Japanese: A Review and Synthesis.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Compernolle, Tim Van
1993-01-01
The two conditionals 'to' and '-tara' in Japanese do not carry neutral connotations. This paper offers evidence to support the claim that '-tara' can carry, among other things, a connotation of surprise in reference to specific past events. However, evidence is also offered to show that the conditional 'to,' contrary to what is stated in most…
A Public Education Primer: Basic (and Sometimes Surprising) Facts about the U.S. Education System
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kober, Nancy; Rentner, Diane Stark; Jennings, Jack
2006-01-01
Public education matters, whether one is a student, parent, teacher, volunteer, employer, employee, or taxpayer. Although an individual undoubtedly knows something about public education, he may be unaware of important facts about the U.S. education system or may be surprised to learn how things have changed in recent years. In this primer on…
Role of substantia nigra-amygdala connections in surprise-induced enhancement of attention.
Lee, Hongjoo J; Youn, Jina M; O, Mary J; Gallagher, Michela; Holland, Peter C
2006-05-31
Coding of prediction error by midbrain dopamine neurons has been examined extensively in the framework of associative learning theory. Most of this research has focused on the role of prediction error in determining the reinforcement value of unconditioned stimuli: poorly predicted ("surprising") outcomes are more effective reinforcers and produce a greater dopamine response than well predicted outcomes. However, surprise also enhances attention to cues that signal poorly predicted outcomes. Previous reports from our laboratories demonstrated that circuitry, including the amygdala central nucleus (CeA), the cholinergic neurons of the substantia innominata/nucleus basalis region, and their innervation of the posterior parietal cortex, is critical to these surprise-induced enhancements of attention in associative learning. The present study considered the origin of prediction error information important for the operation of this system by examining the effects of disrupting communication between the midbrain substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) and the CeA. Rats received unilateral lesions of the SNc and lesions of the CeA in either the contralateral or ipsilateral hemisphere. Contralateral lesions eliminated the surprise-induced enhancement of attention and learning that was displayed by rats with ipsilateral control lesions. These results show that SNc-CeA communication is critical to mechanisms by which the coding of prediction error by midbrain dopamine neurons is translated into enhancement of attention and learning modulated by the cholinergic system.
Bagpipes and Artichokes: Surprise as a Stimulus to Learning in the Elementary Music Classroom
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Jacobi, Bonnie Schaffhauser
2016-01-01
Incorporating surprise into music instruction can stimulate student attention, curiosity, and interest. Novelty focuses attention in the reticular activating system, increasing the potential for brain memory storage. Elementary ages are ideal for introducing novel instruments, pieces, composers, or styles of music. Young children have fewer…
Charting unknown waters—On the role of surprise in flood risk assessment and management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Merz, B.; Vorogushyn, S.; Lall, U.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.
2015-08-01
Unexpected incidents, failures, and disasters are abundant in the history of flooding events. In this paper, we introduce the metaphors of terra incognita and terra maligna to illustrate unknown and wicked flood situations, respectively. We argue that surprise is a neglected element in flood risk assessment and management. Two sources of surprise are identified: (1) the complexity of flood risk systems, represented by nonlinearities, interdependencies, and nonstationarities and (2) cognitive biases in human perception and decision making. Flood risk assessment and management are particularly prone to cognitive biases due to the rarity and uniqueness of extremes, and the nature of human risk perception. We reflect on possible approaches to better understanding and reducing the potential for surprise and its adverse consequences which may be supported by conceptually charting maps that separate terra incognita from terra cognita, and terra maligna from terra benigna. We conclude that flood risk assessment and management should account for the potential for surprise and devastating consequences which will require a shift in thinking.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ash, Ivan K.
2009-01-01
Hindsight bias has been shown to be a pervasive and potentially harmful decision-making bias. A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation. Two experiments tested these predictions examining the…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schein, Jeffrey; Caplan, Eric
2014-01-01
The thoughts of Mordecai Kaplan and Michael Rosenak present surprising commonalities as well as illuminating differences. Similarities include the perception that Judaism and Jewish education are in crisis, the belief that Jewish peoplehood must include commitment to meaningful content, the need for teachers to teach from a position of…
Surprising results: HIV testing and changes in contraceptive practices among young women in Malawi
Sennott, Christie; Yeatman, Sara
2015-01-01
This study uses eight waves of data from the population-based Tsogolo la Thanzi study (2009–2011) in rural Malawi to examine changes in young women’s contraceptive practices, including the use of condoms, non-barrier contraceptive methods, and abstinence, following positive and negative HIV tests. The analysis factors in women’s prior perceptions of their HIV status that may already be shaping their behaviour and separates surprise HIV test results from those that merely confirm what was already believed. Fixed effects logistic regression models show that HIV testing frequently affects the contraceptive practices of young Malawian women, particularly when the test yields an unexpected result. Specifically, women who are surprised to test HIV positive increase their condom use and are more likely to use condoms consistently. Following an HIV negative test (whether a surprise or expected), women increase their use of condoms and decrease their use of non-barrier contraceptives; the latter may be due to an increase in abstinence following a surprise negative result. Changes in condom use following HIV testing are robust to the inclusion of potential explanatory mechanisms including fertility preferences, relationship status, and the perception that a partner is HIV positive. The results demonstrate that both positive and negative tests can influence women’s sexual and reproductive behaviours, and emphasise the importance of conceptualizing of HIV testing as offering new information only insofar as results deviate from prior perceptions of HIV status. PMID:26160156
Surprising Incentive: An Instrument for Promoting Safety Performance of Construction Employees
Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Soltanian, Ali Reza; Mahmoudi, Shahram; Zarei, Esmaeil
2015-01-01
Background In comparison with other industries, the construction industry still has a higher rate of fatal injuries, and thus, there is a need to apply new and innovative approaches for preventing accidents and promoting safe conditions at construction sites. Methods In this study, the effectiveness of a new incentive system—the surprising incentive system—was assessed. One year after the implementation of this new incentive system, behavioral changes of employees with respect to seven types of activities were observed. Results The results of this study showed that there is a significant relationship between the new incentive system and the safety performance of frontline employees. The new incentive system had a greater positive impact in the first 6 months since its implementation. In the long term, however, safety performance experienced a gradual reduction. Based on previous studies, all activities selected in this study are important indicators of the safety conditions at workplaces. However, there is a need for a comprehensive and simple-to-apply tool for assessing frontline employees' safety performance. Shortening the intervals between incentives is more effective in promoting safety performance. Conclusion The results of this study proved that the surprising incentive would improve the employees' safety performance just in the short term because the surprising value of the incentives dwindle over time. For this reason and to maintain the surprising value of the incentive system, the amount and types of incentives need to be evaluated and modified annually or biannually. PMID:26929832
Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vogel, Kristin
2016-04-01
Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables
Koukounari, Artemis; Estambale, Benson B A; Njagi, J Kiambo; Cundill, Bonnie; Ajanga, Anthony; Crudder, Christopher; Otido, Julius; Jukes, Matthew C H; Clarke, Siân E; Brooker, Simon
2008-12-01
Anaemia is multi-factorial in origin and disentangling its aetiology remains problematic, with surprisingly few studies investigating the relative contribution of different parasitic infections to anaemia amongst schoolchildren. We report cross-sectional data on haemoglobin, malaria parasitaemia, helminth infection and undernutrition among 1523 schoolchildren enrolled in classes 5 and 6 (aged 10-21 years) in 30 primary schools in western Kenya. Bayesian hierarchical modelling was used to investigate putative relationships. Children infected with Plasmodium falciparum or with a heavy Schistosoma mansoni infection, stunted children and girls were found to have lower haemoglobin concentrations. Children heavily infected with S. mansoni were also more likely to be anaemic compared with uninfected children. This study further highlights the importance of malaria and intestinal schistosomiasis as contributors to reduced haemoglobin levels among schoolchildren and helps guide the implementation of integrated school health programmes in areas of differing parasite transmission.
Koukounari, Artemis; Estambale, Benson B.A.; Kiambo Njagi, J.; Cundill, Bonnie; Ajanga, Anthony; Crudder, Christopher; Otido, Julius; Jukes, Matthew C.H.; Clarke, Siân E.; Brooker, Simon
2008-01-01
Anaemia is multi-factorial in origin and disentangling its aetiology remains problematic, with surprisingly few studies investigating the relative contribution of different parasitic infections to anaemia amongst schoolchildren. We report cross-sectional data on haemoglobin, malaria parasitaemia, helminth infection and undernutrition among 1523 schoolchildren enrolled in classes 5 and 6 (aged 10–21 years) in 30 primary schools in western Kenya. Bayesian hierarchical modelling was used to investigate putative relationships. Children infected with Plasmodium falciparum or with a heavy Schistosoma mansoni infection, stunted children and girls were found to have lower haemoglobin concentrations. Children heavily infected with S. mansoni were also more likely to be anaemic compared with uninfected children. This study further highlights the importance of malaria and intestinal schistosomiasis as contributors to reduced haemoglobin levels among schoolchildren and helps guide the implementation of integrated school health programmes in areas of differing parasite transmission. PMID:18621051
Bayesian Exchangeability, Benefit Transfer, and Research Efficiency
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Atkinson, Scott E.; Crocker, Thomas D.; Shogren, Jason F.
1992-03-01
We offer an economic model of the policymaker's site- or time-specific benefit estimate extrapolation problem when she must weigh the potential gains from an increase in the accuracy and the precision of her agents' estimates against the costs of conducting their assessments. If Bayesian exchangeability is treated as a maintained hypothesis, we suggest that empirical Bayes estimators offer a powerful way to increase the economic efficiency of extrapolation. Finally, we employ a hedonic study of pollution control benefits to illustrate a Bayesian diagnostic that allows the hypothesis of exchangeability to be tested rather than taken as maintained. The power of the diagnostic arises from its ability to identify those sources of parameter variability most likely to discourage extrapolations.
Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.
Raftery, Adrian E; Alkema, Leontine; Gerland, Patrick
2014-02-01
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and researchers. Like almost all other population projections, they are produced using the standard deterministic cohort-component projection method and do not yield statements of uncertainty. We describe a Bayesian method for producing probabilistic population projections for most countries that the United Nations could use. It has at its core Bayesian hierarchical models for the total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth. We illustrate the method and show how it can be extended to address concerns about the UN's current assumptions about the long-term distribution of fertility. The method is implemented in the R packages bayesTFR, bayesLife, bayesPop and bayesDem.
Advanced Bayesian Method for Planetary Surface Navigation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Center, Julian
2015-01-01
Autonomous Exploration, Inc., has developed an advanced Bayesian statistical inference method that leverages current computing technology to produce a highly accurate surface navigation system. The method combines dense stereo vision and high-speed optical flow to implement visual odometry (VO) to track faster rover movements. The Bayesian VO technique improves performance by using all image information rather than corner features only. The method determines what can be learned from each image pixel and weighs the information accordingly. This capability improves performance in shadowed areas that yield only low-contrast images. The error characteristics of the visual processing are complementary to those of a low-cost inertial measurement unit (IMU), so the combination of the two capabilities provides highly accurate navigation. The method increases NASA mission productivity by enabling faster rover speed and accuracy. On Earth, the technology will permit operation of robots and autonomous vehicles in areas where the Global Positioning System (GPS) is degraded or unavailable.
Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann
2011-01-01
Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.
A Bayesian approach to person perception.
Clifford, C W G; Mareschal, I; Otsuka, Y; Watson, T L
2015-11-01
Here we propose a Bayesian approach to person perception, outlining the theoretical position and a methodological framework for testing the predictions experimentally. We use the term person perception to refer not only to the perception of others' personal attributes such as age and sex but also to the perception of social signals such as direction of gaze and emotional expression. The Bayesian approach provides a formal description of the way in which our perception combines current sensory evidence with prior expectations about the structure of the environment. Such expectations can lead to unconscious biases in our perception that are particularly evident when sensory evidence is uncertain. We illustrate the ideas with reference to our recent studies on gaze perception which show that people have a bias to perceive the gaze of others as directed towards themselves. We also describe a potential application to the study of the perception of a person's sex, in which a bias towards perceiving males is typically observed.
Bayesian information fusion networks for biosurveillance applications.
Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi R; Burkom, Howard S; Coberly, Jacqueline S; Lombardo, Joseph S
2009-01-01
This study introduces new information fusion algorithms to enhance disease surveillance systems with Bayesian decision support capabilities. A detection system was built and tested using chief complaints from emergency department visits, International Classification of Diseases Revision 9 (ICD-9) codes from records of outpatient visits to civilian and military facilities, and influenza surveillance data from health departments in the National Capital Region (NCR). Data anomalies were identified and distribution of time offsets between events in the multiple data streams were established. The Bayesian Network was built to fuse data from multiple sources and identify influenza-like epidemiologically relevant events. Results showed increased specificity compared with the alerts generated by temporal anomaly detection algorithms currently deployed by NCR health departments. Further research should be done to investigate correlations between data sources for efficient fusion of the collected data.
Bayesian image reconstruction: Application to emission tomography
Nunez, J.; Llacer, J.
1989-02-01
In this paper we propose a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) method of image reconstruction in the Bayesian framework for the Poisson noise case. We use entropy to define the prior probability and likelihood to define the conditional probability. The method uses sharpness parameters which can be theoretically computed or adjusted, allowing us to obtain MAP reconstructions without the problem of the grey'' reconstructions associated with the pre Bayesian reconstructions. We have developed several ways to solve the reconstruction problem and propose a new iterative algorithm which is stable, maintains positivity and converges to feasible images faster than the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method. We have successfully applied the new method to the case of Emission Tomography, both with simulated and real data. 41 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.
Bayesian Evidence Framework for Decision Tree Learning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chatpatanasiri, Ratthachat; Kijsirikul, Boonserm
2005-11-01
This work is primary interested in the problem of, given the observed data, selecting a single decision (or classification) tree. Although a single decision tree has a high risk to be overfitted, the induced tree is easily interpreted. Researchers have invented various methods such as tree pruning or tree averaging for preventing the induced tree from overfitting (and from underfitting) the data. In this paper, instead of using those conventional approaches, we apply the Bayesian evidence framework of Gull, Skilling and Mackay to a process of selecting a decision tree. We derive a formal function to measure `the fitness' for each decision tree given a set of observed data. Our method, in fact, is analogous to a well-known Bayesian model selection method for interpolating noisy continuous-value data. As in regression problems, given reasonable assumptions, this derived score function automatically quantifies the principle of Ockham's razor, and hence reasonably deals with the issue of underfitting-overfitting tradeoff.
The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference
Selig, Marco
2014-12-05
We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D{sup 3}PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.
Applications of Bayesian spectrum representation in acoustics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Botts, Jonathan M.
This dissertation utilizes a Bayesian inference framework to enhance the solution of inverse problems where the forward model maps to acoustic spectra. A Bayesian solution to filter design inverts a acoustic spectra to pole-zero locations of a discrete-time filter model. Spatial sound field analysis with a spherical microphone array is a data analysis problem that requires inversion of spatio-temporal spectra to directions of arrival. As with many inverse problems, a probabilistic analysis results in richer solutions than can be achieved with ad-hoc methods. In the filter design problem, the Bayesian inversion results in globally optimal coefficient estimates as well as an estimate the most concise filter capable of representing the given spectrum, within a single framework. This approach is demonstrated on synthetic spectra, head-related transfer function spectra, and measured acoustic reflection spectra. The Bayesian model-based analysis of spatial room impulse responses is presented as an analogous problem with equally rich solution. The model selection mechanism provides an estimate of the number of arrivals, which is necessary to properly infer the directions of simultaneous arrivals. Although, spectrum inversion problems are fairly ubiquitous, the scope of this dissertation has been limited to these two and derivative problems. The Bayesian approach to filter design is demonstrated on an artificial spectrum to illustrate the model comparison mechanism and then on measured head-related transfer functions to show the potential range of application. Coupled with sampling methods, the Bayesian approach is shown to outperform least-squares filter design methods commonly used in commercial software, confirming the need for a global search of the parameter space. The resulting designs are shown to be comparable to those that result from global optimization methods, but the Bayesian approach has the added advantage of a filter length estimate within the same unified
A Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis model.
Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G
2015-03-01
In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall effect size, such models may be adequate, but for prediction, they surely are not if the effect-size distribution exhibits non-normal behavior. To address this issue, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis model, which can describe a wider range of effect-size distributions, including unimodal symmetric distributions, as well as skewed and more multimodal distributions. We demonstrate our model through the analysis of real meta-analytic data arising from behavioral-genetic research. We compare the predictive performance of the Bayesian nonparametric model against various conventional and more modern normal fixed-effects and random-effects models.
Yu, Jihnhee; Hutson, Alan D; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Kedron, Mary A
2016-02-01
In some small clinical trials, toxicity is not a primary endpoint; however, it often has dire effects on patients' quality of life and is even life-threatening. For such clinical trials, rigorous control of the overall incidence of adverse events is desirable, while simultaneously collecting safety information. In this article, we propose group sequential toxicity monitoring strategies to control overall toxicity incidents below a certain level as opposed to performing hypothesis testing, which can be incorporated into an existing study design based on the primary endpoint. We consider two sequential methods: a non-Bayesian approach in which stopping rules are obtained based on the 'future' probability of an excessive toxicity rate; and a Bayesian adaptation modifying the proposed non-Bayesian approach, which can use the information obtained at interim analyses. Through an extensive Monte Carlo study, we show that the Bayesian approach often provides better control of the overall toxicity rate than the non-Bayesian approach. We also investigate adequate toxicity estimation after the studies. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed methods in controlling the symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage rate for treating acute ischemic stroke patients.
The Size-Weight Illusion is not anti-Bayesian after all: a unifying Bayesian account.
Peters, Megan A K; Ma, Wei Ji; Shams, Ladan
2016-01-01
When we lift two differently-sized but equally-weighted objects, we expect the larger to be heavier, but the smaller feels heavier. However, traditional Bayesian approaches with "larger is heavier" priors predict the smaller object should feel lighter; this Size-Weight Illusion (SWI) has thus been labeled "anti-Bayesian" and has stymied psychologists for generations. We propose that previous Bayesian approaches neglect the brain's inference process about density. In our Bayesian model, objects' perceived heaviness relationship is based on both their size and inferred density relationship: observers evaluate competing, categorical hypotheses about objects' relative densities, the inference about which is then used to produce the final estimate of weight. The model can qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce the SWI and explain other researchers' findings, and also makes a novel prediction, which we confirmed. This same computational mechanism accounts for other multisensory phenomena and illusions; that the SWI follows the same process suggests that competitive-prior Bayesian inference can explain human perception across many domains.
Polyisocyanurate's high R-value attracting users
Fleming, J.
1982-05-31
The higher insulating value of polyisocyanurate rigid foam boards that can be installed over existing walls is attracting customers despite their 20% higher cost per square foot than fiberglass insulation. Other plastic foam boards compare in cost, but have a lower R value. The less flammable polycyanurate boards do not require additional perlite or other fire-retardant boards to meet building fire codes. A directory lists 81 major suppliers of roof and wall insulation. (DCK)
Acarine attractants: Chemoreception, bioassay, chemistry and control.
Carr, Ann L; Roe, Michael
2016-07-01
The Acari are of significant economic importance in crop production and human and animal health. Acaricides are essential for the control of these pests, but at the same time, the number of available pesticides is limited, especially for applications in animal production. The Acari consist of two major groups, the mites that demonstrate a wide variety of life strategies, i.e., herbivory, predation and ectoparasitism, and ticks which have evolved obligatory hematophagy. The major sites of chemoreception in the acarines are the chelicerae, palps and tarsi on the forelegs. A unifying name, the "foretarsal sensory organ" (FSO), is proposed for the first time in this review for the sensory site on the forelegs of all acarines. The FSO has multiple sensory functions including olfaction, gustation, and heat detection. Preliminary transcriptomic data in ticks suggest that chemoreception in the FSO is achieved by a different mechanism from insects. There are a variety of laboratory and field bioassay methods that have been developed for the identification and characterization of attractants but minimal techniques for electrophysiology studies. Over the past three to four decades, significant progress has been made in the chemistry and analysis of function for acarine attractants in mites and ticks. In mites, attractants include aggregation, immature female, female sex and alarm pheromones; in ticks, the attraction-aggregation-attachment, assembly and sex pheromones; in mites and ticks host kairomones and plant allomones; and in mites, fungal allomones. There are still large gaps in our knowledge of chemical communication in the acarines compared to insects, especially relative to acarine pheromones, and more so for mites than ticks. However, the use of lure-and-kill and lure-enhanced biocontrol strategies has been investigated for tick and mite control, respectively, with significant environmental advantages which warrant further study.
Acarine attractants: Chemoreception, bioassay, chemistry and control.
Carr, Ann L; Roe, Michael
2016-07-01
The Acari are of significant economic importance in crop production and human and animal health. Acaricides are essential for the control of these pests, but at the same time, the number of available pesticides is limited, especially for applications in animal production. The Acari consist of two major groups, the mites that demonstrate a wide variety of life strategies, i.e., herbivory, predation and ectoparasitism, and ticks which have evolved obligatory hematophagy. The major sites of chemoreception in the acarines are the chelicerae, palps and tarsi on the forelegs. A unifying name, the "foretarsal sensory organ" (FSO), is proposed for the first time in this review for the sensory site on the forelegs of all acarines. The FSO has multiple sensory functions including olfaction, gustation, and heat detection. Preliminary transcriptomic data in ticks suggest that chemoreception in the FSO is achieved by a different mechanism from insects. There are a variety of laboratory and field bioassay methods that have been developed for the identification and characterization of attractants but minimal techniques for electrophysiology studies. Over the past three to four decades, significant progress has been made in the chemistry and analysis of function for acarine attractants in mites and ticks. In mites, attractants include aggregation, immature female, female sex and alarm pheromones; in ticks, the attraction-aggregation-attachment, assembly and sex pheromones; in mites and ticks host kairomones and plant allomones; and in mites, fungal allomones. There are still large gaps in our knowledge of chemical communication in the acarines compared to insects, especially relative to acarine pheromones, and more so for mites than ticks. However, the use of lure-and-kill and lure-enhanced biocontrol strategies has been investigated for tick and mite control, respectively, with significant environmental advantages which warrant further study. PMID:27265828
Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics
Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M.; Hamilton, Tara J.; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André
2016-01-01
In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream. PMID:27047326
Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.
Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André
2016-01-01
In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.
The radiology task: Bayesian theory and perception.
Donovan, T; Manning, D J
2007-06-01
The use of a Bayesian framework to understand how radiologists search images for pathology is important as it formalizes, mathematically, how visual and cognitive processes control eye movements by modelling the ideal searcher against which human performance can be compared. It is important that the interpretation of medical images is understood so that new developments in the ways images are presented and the use of image processing software are matched to human abilities and limitations.
Bayesian belief networks in business continuity.
Phillipson, Frank; Matthijssen, Edwin; Attema, Thomas
2014-01-01
Business continuity professionals aim to mitigate the various challenges to the continuity of their company. The goal is a coherent system of measures that encompass detection, prevention and recovery. Choices made in one part of the system affect other parts as well as the continuity risks of the company. In complex organisations, however, these relations are far from obvious. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks to expose these relations, and presents a modelling framework for this approach. PMID:25193453
Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.
Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André
2016-01-01
In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream. PMID:27047326
Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods. Proceedings.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grandy, W. T., Jr.; Schick, L. H.
This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the Tenth Annual Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods. The thirty-six papers included cover a wide range of applications in areas such as economics and econometrics, astronomy and astrophysics, general physics, complex systems, image reconstruction, and probability and mathematics. Together they give an excellent state-of-the-art overview of fundamental methods of data analysis.
Efficient Bayesian-based multiview deconvolution.
Preibisch, Stephan; Amat, Fernando; Stamataki, Evangelia; Sarov, Mihail; Singer, Robert H; Myers, Eugene; Tomancak, Pavel
2014-06-01
Light-sheet fluorescence microscopy is able to image large specimens with high resolution by capturing the samples from multiple angles. Multiview deconvolution can substantially improve the resolution and contrast of the images, but its application has been limited owing to the large size of the data sets. Here we present a Bayesian-based derivation of multiview deconvolution that drastically improves the convergence time, and we provide a fast implementation using graphics hardware. PMID:24747812
Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Locating Seismic Events
Johannesson, G; Myers, S C; Hanley, W G
2005-11-09
We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for conducting inference on the location of multiple seismic events (earthquakes) given data on the arrival of various seismic phases to sensor locations. The model explicitly accounts for the uncertainty associated with a theoretical seismic-wave travel-time model used along with the uncertainty of the arrival data. Posterior inferences is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).
Mapping female bodily features of attractiveness.
Bovet, Jeanne; Lao, Junpeng; Bartholomée, Océane; Caldara, Roberto; Raymond, Michel
2016-01-01
"Beauty is bought by judgment of the eye" (Shakespeare, Love's Labour's Lost), but the bodily features governing this critical biological choice are still debated. Eye movement studies have demonstrated that males sample coarse body regions expanding from the face, the breasts and the midriff, while making female attractiveness judgements with natural vision. However, the visual system ubiquitously extracts diagnostic extra-foveal information in natural conditions, thus the visual information actually used by men is still unknown. We thus used a parametric gaze-contingent design while males rated attractiveness of female front- and back-view bodies. Males used extra-foveal information when available. Critically, when bodily features were only visible through restricted apertures, fixations strongly shifted to the hips, to potentially extract hip-width and curvature, then the breast and face. Our hierarchical mapping suggests that the visual system primary uses hip information to compute the waist-to-hip ratio and the body mass index, the crucial factors in determining sexual attractiveness and mate selection. PMID:26791105
Stochastic basins of attraction for metastable states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Serdukova, Larissa; Zheng, Yayun; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen
2016-07-01
Basin of attraction of a stable equilibrium point is an effective concept for stability analysis in deterministic systems; however, it does not contain information on the external perturbations that may affect it. Here we introduce the concept of stochastic basin of attraction (SBA) by incorporating a suitable probabilistic notion of basin. We define criteria for the size of the SBA based on the escape probability, which is one of the deterministic quantities that carry dynamical information and can be used to quantify dynamical behavior of the corresponding stochastic basin of attraction. SBA is an efficient tool to describe the metastable phenomena complementing the known exit time, escape probability, or relaxation time. Moreover, the geometric structure of SBA gives additional insight into the system's dynamical behavior, which is important for theoretical and practical reasons. This concept can be used not only in models with small noise intensity but also with noise whose amplitude is proportional or in general is a function of an order parameter. As an application of our main results, we analyze a three potential well system perturbed by two types of noise: Brownian motion and non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion. Our main conclusions are that the thermal fluctuations stabilize the metastable system with an asymmetric three-well potential but have the opposite effect for a symmetric one. For Lévy noise with larger jumps and lower jump frequencies ( α = 0.5 ) metastability is enhanced for both symmetric and asymmetric potentials.
Stochastic basins of attraction for metastable states.
Serdukova, Larissa; Zheng, Yayun; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen
2016-07-01
Basin of attraction of a stable equilibrium point is an effective concept for stability analysis in deterministic systems; however, it does not contain information on the external perturbations that may affect it. Here we introduce the concept of stochastic basin of attraction (SBA) by incorporating a suitable probabilistic notion of basin. We define criteria for the size of the SBA based on the escape probability, which is one of the deterministic quantities that carry dynamical information and can be used to quantify dynamical behavior of the corresponding stochastic basin of attraction. SBA is an efficient tool to describe the metastable phenomena complementing the known exit time, escape probability, or relaxation time. Moreover, the geometric structure of SBA gives additional insight into the system's dynamical behavior, which is important for theoretical and practical reasons. This concept can be used not only in models with small noise intensity but also with noise whose amplitude is proportional or in general is a function of an order parameter. As an application of our main results, we analyze a three potential well system perturbed by two types of noise: Brownian motion and non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion. Our main conclusions are that the thermal fluctuations stabilize the metastable system with an asymmetric three-well potential but have the opposite effect for a symmetric one. For Lévy noise with larger jumps and lower jump frequencies ( α=0.5) metastability is enhanced for both symmetric and asymmetric potentials. PMID:27475077
Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.
Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F; Cripps, Sally Ann
2016-01-01
A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.
Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3
Parkinson, David; Mukherjee, Pia; Liddle, Andrew R.
2006-06-15
We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index n{sub S} and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that n{sub S}{ne}1, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favor of n{sub S}{ne}1 under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own is unable to distinguish between the two models. Further, inclusion of r as a parameter weakens the conclusion against the Harrison-Zel'dovich case (n{sub S}=1, r=0), albeit in a prior-dependent way. In appendices we describe the CosmoNest code in detail, noting its ability to supply posterior samples as well as to accurately compute the Bayesian evidence. We make a first public release of CosmoNest, now available at www.cosmonest.org.
Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.
Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F; Cripps, Sally Ann
2016-01-01
A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415
Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.
Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu
2016-02-01
A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.
Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics
Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E.; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F.; Cripps, Sally Ann
2016-01-01
A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415
Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection
Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn
2014-01-01
We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892
Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry
Peter G. Groer
2002-09-29
We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed compartmental activities. From the estimated probability densities of the model parameters we were able to derive the densities for compartmental activities for a two compartment catenary model at different times. We also calculated the average activities and their standard deviation for a simple two compartment model.
Hierarchical Bayesian model updating for structural identification
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Behmanesh, Iman; Moaveni, Babak; Lombaert, Geert; Papadimitriou, Costas
2015-12-01
A new probabilistic finite element (FE) model updating technique based on Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is proposed for identification of civil structural systems under changing ambient/environmental conditions. The performance of the proposed technique is investigated for (1) uncertainty quantification of model updating parameters, and (2) probabilistic damage identification of the structural systems. Accurate estimation of the uncertainty in modeling parameters such as mass or stiffness is a challenging task. Several Bayesian model updating frameworks have been proposed in the literature that can successfully provide the "parameter estimation uncertainty" of model parameters with the assumption that there is no underlying inherent variability in the updating parameters. However, this assumption may not be valid for civil structures where structural mass and stiffness have inherent variability due to different sources of uncertainty such as changing ambient temperature, temperature gradient, wind speed, and traffic loads. Hierarchical Bayesian model updating is capable of predicting the overall uncertainty/variability of updating parameters by assuming time-variability of the underlying linear system. A general solution based on Gibbs Sampler is proposed to estimate the joint probability distributions of the updating parameters. The performance of the proposed Hierarchical approach is evaluated numerically for uncertainty quantification and damage identification of a 3-story shear building model. Effects of modeling errors and incomplete modal data are considered in the numerical study.
Klohnen, Eva C; Luo, Shanhong
2003-10-01
Little is known about whether personality characteristics influence initial attraction. Because adult attachment differences influence a broad range of relationship processes, the authors examined their role in 3 experimental attraction studies. The authors tested four major attraction hypotheses--self similarity, ideal-self similarity, complementarity, and attachment security--and examined both actual and perceptual factors. Replicated analyses across samples, designs, and manipulations showed that actual security and self similarity predicted attraction. With regard to perceptual factors, ideal similarity, self similarity, and security all were significant predictors. Whereas perceptual ideal and self similarity had incremental predictive power, perceptual security's effects were subsumed by perceptual ideal similarity. Perceptual self similarity fully mediated actual attachment similarity effects, whereas ideal similarity was only a partial mediator. PMID:14561124
Wilkins, Clara L; Chan, Joy F; Kaiser, Cheryl R
2011-10-01
What does it take to find a member of a different race attractive? In this research, we suggest that for Whites, attraction to Asians may be based, in part, on stereotypes and variations in Asians' racial appearance. Study 1 reveals that Asians are stereotyped as being more feminine and less masculine than other racial groups-characteristics considered appealing for women but not for men to possess. Study 2 examines how variation in racial appearance, phenotypic prototypicality (PP), shapes the degree to which Asians are gender stereotyped and how PP relates to perceptions of attractiveness. Higher PP Asian men are perceived as being less masculine and less physically attractive than lower PP Asian men. These findings inform theory on how within-group variation in racial appearance affects stereotyping and other social outcomes.
Hamano, Jun; Morita, Tatsuya; Inoue, Satoshi; Ikenaga, Masayuki; Matsumoto, Yoshihisa; Sekine, Ryuichi; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Hirohashi, Takeshi; Tajima, Tsukasa; Tatara, Ryohei; Watanabe, Hiroaki; Otani, Hiroyuki; Takigawa, Chizuko; Matsuda, Yoshinobu; Nagaoka, Hiroka; Mori, Masanori; Yamamoto, Naoki; Shimizu, Mie; Sasara, Takeshi
2015-01-01
Background. Predicting the short-term survival in cancer patients is an important issue for patients, family, and oncologists. Although the prognostic accuracy of the surprise question has value in 1-year mortality for cancer patients, the prognostic value for short-term survival has not been formally assessed. The primary aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of the surprise question for 7-day and 30-day survival in patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods. The present multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014, involving 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services. Results. We recruited 2,425 patients and included 2,361 for analysis: 912 from hospital-based palliative care teams, 895 from hospital palliative care units, and 554 from home-based palliative care services. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the 7-day survival surprise question were 84.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.7%–88.0%), 68.0% (95% CI, 67.3%–68.5%), 30.3% (95% CI, 28.9%–31.5%), and 96.4% (95% CI, 95.5%–97.2%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the 30-day surprise question were 95.6% (95% CI, 94.4%–96.6%), 37.0% (95% CI, 35.9%–37.9%), 57.6% (95% CI, 56.8%–58.2%), and 90.4% (95% CI, 87.7%–92.6%), respectively. Conclusion. Surprise questions are useful for screening patients for short survival. However, the high false-positive rates do not allow clinicians to provide definitive prognosis prediction. Implications for Practice: The findings of this study indicate that clinicians can screen patients for 7- or 30-day survival using surprise questions with 90% or more sensitivity. Clinicians cannot provide accurate prognosis estimation, and all patients will not always die within the defined periods. The
Fuzzy Naive Bayesian for constructing regulated network with weights.
Zhou, Xi Y; Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S
2015-01-01
In the data mining field, classification is a very crucial technology, and the Bayesian classifier has been one of the hotspots in classification research area. However, assumptions of Naive Bayesian and Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian (TAN) are unfair to attribute relations. Therefore, this paper proposes a new algorithm named Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) using neural network with weighted membership function (NEWFM) to extract regulated relations and weights. Then, we can use regulated relations and weights to construct a regulated network. Finally, we will classify the heart and Haberman datasets by the FNB network to compare with experiments of Naive Bayesian and TAN. The experiment results show that the FNB has a higher classification rate than Naive Bayesian and TAN.
Noise and resolution of Bayesian reconstruction for multiple image configurations
Chinn, G.; Huang, Sung Cheng
1993-12-01
Images reconstructed by Bayesian and maximum-likelihood (ML) using a Gibbs prior with prior weight {beta} were compared with images produced by filtered back projection (FBP) from sinogram data simulated with different counts and image configurations. Bayesian images were generated by the OSL algorithm accelerated by an over relaxation parameter. For relatively low {beta}, Bayesian images can yield an overall improvement to the images compared to ML reconstruction. However, for larger {beta}, Bayesian images degrade from the standpoint of noise and quantitation. Compared to FBP, the ML images were superior in a mean square error sense in regions of low activity level and for small structures. At a comparable noise level to FBP, Bayesian reconstruction can be used to effectively recover higher resolution images. The overall performance is dependent on the image structure and the weight of the Bayesian prior.
Impressions of Counselors as a Function of Counselor Physical Attractiveness
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Carter, Jean A.
1978-01-01
Research assessed the effects of counselor physical attractiveness and inter-actions between attractiveness and counselor subject sex. It is suggested that sex of counselor and client may play a more important role independently and in conjunction with attractiveness than does attractiveness alone in influencing impressions and expectations.…
Viewing Attractiveness Socialization from a Social Network Perspective.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Downs, A. Chris
Providing a framework for a symposium exploring the influence of physical attractiveness on the socialization process, this paper (1) offers a working definition of physical attractiveness, (2) reviews stereotypes associated with attractiveness, and (3) discusses a social network perspective on the influence of attractiveness. Physical…
Lehrman, Anna; Boddum, Tina; Stenberg, Johan A; Orians, Colin M; Björkman, Christer
2013-01-01
While carnivores are known to be attracted to herbivore-induced plant volatiles, little is known about how such volatiles may affect the behaviour of omnivorous predators that may use both plants and herbivores as food. Here, we examine how systemically produced plant volatiles, in response to local herbivore damage, differentially attract a key omnivorous predator, Anthocoris nemorum (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae), to single clones of three species of Salix: S. viminalis, S. dasyclados and S. cinerea. The profiles of the plant volatiles produced were found to vary among Salix clones and between herbivore-damaged and intact plants. Anthocoris nemorum was attracted to the volatiles released from undamaged plants of all three species, but most strongly to a native S. cinerea clone. Plants damaged by the herbivorous leaf beetle Phratora vulgatissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) were generally more attractive than undamaged plants, with A. nemorum responding to systemic changes in the damaged plants where the experimental design specifically excluded volatiles released from the actual site of damage. When comparing damaged plants, the S. dasyclados clone was more attractive to A. nemorum than the S. viminalis clone-a somewhat surprising result since this Salix clone is considered relatively resistant to P. vulgatissima, and hence offers a limited amount of prey. Our experiments highlight that both constitutive and induced plant volatiles play a role in omnivore attraction, and this emphasizes the importance of considering odours of released volatiles when cropping and breeding Salix for increased resistance to herbivores.
The Bayesian bridge between simple and universal kriging
Omre, H.; Halvorsen, K.B. )
1989-10-01
Kriging techniques are suited well for evaluation of continuous, spatial phenomena. Bayesian statistics are characterized by using prior qualified guesses on the model parameters. By merging kriging techniques and Bayesian theory, prior guesses may be used in a spatial setting. Partial knowledge of model parameters defines a continuum of models between what is named simple and universal kriging in geostatistical terminology. The Bayesian approach to kriging is developed and discussed, and a case study concerning depth conversion of seismic reflection times is presented.
Surprisal analysis of rotational-translational energy transfer - Non-linear versus linear rotors
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Green, S.
1979-01-01
Surprisal versus energy gap analyses of state-to-state cross sections are presented for a number of linear rigid rotors excited by collisions with atoms for H2-H, H2-He, HCl-He, HCl-Ar, CO-He, CS-H2 (j=0) OCS-H2 (j=0) and HN2(+)-He, where (j=0) indicates that the hydrogen molecule was constrained to remain in its lowest level. Different systems exhibit wide variations in the slope of the surprisal plot and in certain cases, enough to indicate that the energy gap may not be the static dynamical constraint. Similar analyses are presented for nonlinear rotors excited by atoms for H2CO-He and H2O-He. For these, the data show a great deal of scatter, indicating that the reduced energy gap is probably not the appropriate independent variable.
Case history on geothermal-well-log interpretation: Surprise Valley, California
Rigby, F.A.; Zebal, G.P.
1981-06-01
Well logs from a 1972 geothermal well drilled in California's Surprise Valley are discussed. The well is in an igneous formation, primarily basalt in the logged interval, and had a bottom-hole temperature of about 170/sup 0/C at a total depth exceeding 1400 m. It produced good flow rates from what is presumably a formation with predominately fracture-related permeability. The well has special interest because fractures could be located approximately by the appearance of well-defined secondary crystallization in the drill cuttings. The original use of the log data in evaluating the well when it was drilled is discussed. In addition, the log data are reviewed and valuable data are obtained on log response in basalts, the effects of secondary mineralization, fracture detection, and aspects of the resistivity logs. The Surprise Valley well gives a clear demonstration of the value of thorough logging in geothermal exploratory wells, especially in the identification and location of potential production zones.
Investigating locality effects and surprisal in written English syntactic choice phenomena.
Rajkumar, Rajakrishnan; van Schijndel, Marten; White, Michael; Schuler, William
2016-10-01
We investigate the extent to which syntactic choice in written English is influenced by processing considerations as predicted by Gibson's (2000) Dependency Locality Theory (DLT) and Surprisal Theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008). A long line of previous work attests that languages display a tendency for shorter dependencies, and in a previous corpus study, Temperley (2007) provided evidence that this tendency exerts a strong influence on constituent ordering choices. However, Temperley's study included no frequency-based controls, and subsequent work on sentence comprehension with broad-coverage eye-tracking corpora found weak or negative effects of DLT-based measures when frequency effects were statistically controlled for (Demberg & Keller, 2008; van Schijndel, Nguyen, & Schuler 2013; van Schijndel & Schuler, 2013), calling into question the actual impact of dependency locality on syntactic choice phenomena. Going beyond Temperley's work, we show that DLT integration costs are indeed a significant predictor of syntactic choice in written English even in the presence of competing frequency-based and cognitively motivated control factors, including n-gram probability and PCFG surprisal as well as embedding depth (Wu, Bachrach, Cardenas, & Schuler, 2010; Yngve, 1960). Our study also shows that the predictions of dependency length and surprisal are only moderately correlated, a finding which mirrors Dember & Keller's (2008) results for sentence comprehension. Further, we demonstrate that the efficacy of dependency length in predicting the corpus choice increases with increasing head-dependent distances. At the same time, we find that the tendency towards dependency locality is not always observed, and with pre-verbal adjuncts in particular, non-locality cases are found more often than not. In contrast, surprisal is effective in these cases, and the embedding depth measures further increase prediction accuracy. We discuss the implications of our findings for theories of
Each individual is a surprise: a conversation with Marianne Horney Eckardt.
Rubin, Jeffrey B
2014-06-01
"Each Individual is a Surprise" is a brief account of a dialogue between Marianne Horney Eckardt and myself about the state of psychoanalysis and the psychoanalytic process, the danger of idolatry, the damaging impact of psychoanalytic schools when they create a standardized and pathologizing approach to people, the value of curiosity and humility and retaining one's clinical creativity. The role of Rank, Horney, Sullivan, and Fromm in Dr. Eckardt's long life and rich work is touched upon. PMID:24882069
Agent Based Study of Surprise Attacks:. Roles of Surveillance, Prompt Reaction and Intelligence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shanahan, Linda; Sen, Surajit
Defending a confined territory from a surprise attack is seldom possible. We use molecular dynamics and statistical physics inspired agent-based simulations to explore the evolution and outcome of such attacks. The study suggests robust emergent behavior, which emphasizes the importance of accurate surveillance, automated and powerful attack response, building layout, and sheds light on the role of communication restrictions in defending such territories.
Surprise and sense making: what newcomers experience in entering unfamiliar organizational settings.
Louis, M R
1980-06-01
Growing disillusionment among new members of organizations has been traced to inadequacies in approaches to organizational entry. Current directions of research on organizational entry and their limitations are described, and a new perspective is proposed. The new perspective identifies key features of newcomers' entry experiences, including surprise, contrast, and change, and describes the sense-making processes by which individuals cope with their entry experiences. Implications for research and practice on organizational entry are drawn.
Asem, Judith S A; Schiffino, Felipe L; Holland, Peter C
2015-09-01
The dorsolateral striatum (DLS) is frequently implicated in sensory-motor integration, including the performance of sensory orienting responses (ORs) and learned stimulus-response habits. Our laboratory previously identified a role for the DLS in rats' performance of conditioned ORs to Pavlovian cues for food delivery. Here, we considered whether DLS is also critical to another aspect of attention in associative learning, the surprise-induced enhancement of cue associability. A large behavioral literature shows that a cue present when an expected event is omitted enters into new associations more rapidly when that cue is subsequently paired with food. Research from our laboratory has shown that both cue associability enhancements and conditioned ORs depend on the function of a circuit that includes the amygdala central nucleus and the substantia nigra pars compacta. In three experiments, we explored the involvement of DLS in surprise-induced associability enhancements, using a three-stage serial prediction task that permitted separation of DLS function in registering surprise (prediction error) and enhancing cue associability, and in using that increased associability to learn more rapidly about that cue later. The results showed that DLS is critical to the expression, but not the establishment, of the enhanced cue associability normally produced by surprise in this task. They extend the role of DLS and the amygdalo-nigro-striatal circuit underlying learned orienting to more subtle aspects of attention in associative learning, but are consistent with the general notion that DLS is more important in the expression of previously acquired tendencies than in their acquisition. PMID:26108257
Surprising patterns of CMOS susceptibility to ESD and implications on long-term reliability
Schwank, J.R.; Baker, R.P.; Armendariz, M.G.
1980-01-01
CMOS electrostatic discharge (ESD) failures in a product where, by design, the device input terminals are not accessible to ESD led to this study of device susceptibility and an analysis of the long-term reliability of devices in assemblies from that production line. Some surprising patterns of device susceptibility are established and it is shown that the probability of long-term failure in devices whose electrical characteristics have been degraded by electrostatic discharge is small.
Investigating locality effects and surprisal in written English syntactic choice phenomena.
Rajkumar, Rajakrishnan; van Schijndel, Marten; White, Michael; Schuler, William
2016-10-01
We investigate the extent to which syntactic choice in written English is influenced by processing considerations as predicted by Gibson's (2000) Dependency Locality Theory (DLT) and Surprisal Theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008). A long line of previous work attests that languages display a tendency for shorter dependencies, and in a previous corpus study, Temperley (2007) provided evidence that this tendency exerts a strong influence on constituent ordering choices. However, Temperley's study included no frequency-based controls, and subsequent work on sentence comprehension with broad-coverage eye-tracking corpora found weak or negative effects of DLT-based measures when frequency effects were statistically controlled for (Demberg & Keller, 2008; van Schijndel, Nguyen, & Schuler 2013; van Schijndel & Schuler, 2013), calling into question the actual impact of dependency locality on syntactic choice phenomena. Going beyond Temperley's work, we show that DLT integration costs are indeed a significant predictor of syntactic choice in written English even in the presence of competing frequency-based and cognitively motivated control factors, including n-gram probability and PCFG surprisal as well as embedding depth (Wu, Bachrach, Cardenas, & Schuler, 2010; Yngve, 1960). Our study also shows that the predictions of dependency length and surprisal are only moderately correlated, a finding which mirrors Dember & Keller's (2008) results for sentence comprehension. Further, we demonstrate that the efficacy of dependency length in predicting the corpus choice increases with increasing head-dependent distances. At the same time, we find that the tendency towards dependency locality is not always observed, and with pre-verbal adjuncts in particular, non-locality cases are found more often than not. In contrast, surprisal is effective in these cases, and the embedding depth measures further increase prediction accuracy. We discuss the implications of our findings for theories of
Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.
Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark
2015-06-01
Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.
Bayesian residual analysis for beta-binomial regression models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pires, Rubiane Maria; Diniz, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro
2012-10-01
The beta-binomial regression model is an alternative model to the sum of any sequence of equicorrelated binary variables with common probability of success p. In this work a Bayesian perspective of this model is presented considering different link functions and different correlation structures. A general Bayesian residual analysis for this model, a issue which is often neglected in Bayesian analysis, using the residuals based on the predicted values obtained by the conditional predictive ordinate [1], the residuals based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters [2] and the Bayesian deviance residual [3] are presented in order to check the assumptions in the model.
Melis, Theodore S.; Walters, Carl; Korman, Josh
2015-01-01
With a focus on resources of the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program has included a variety of experimental policy tests, ranging from manipulation of water releases from the dam to removal of non-native fish within Grand Canyon National Park. None of these field-scale experiments has yet produced unambiguous results in terms of management prescriptions. But there has been adaptive learning, mostly from unanticipated or surprising resource responses relative to predictions from ecosystem modeling. Surprise learning opportunities may often be viewed with dismay by some stakeholders who might not be clear about the purpose of science and modeling in adaptive management. However, the experimental results from the Glen Canyon Dam program actually represent scientific successes in terms of revealing new opportunities for developing better river management policies. A new long-term experimental management planning process for Glen Canyon Dam operations, started in 2011 by the U.S. Department of the Interior, provides an opportunity to refocus management objectives, identify and evaluate key uncertainties about the influence of dam releases, and refine monitoring for learning over the next several decades. Adaptive learning since 1995 is critical input to this long-term planning effort. Embracing uncertainty and surprise outcomes revealed by monitoring and ecosystem modeling will likely continue the advancement of resource objectives below the dam, and may also promote efficient learning in other complex programs.
Lassalle, Amandine; Itier, Roxane J.
2014-01-01
The impact of emotions on gaze-oriented attention was investigated in non-anxious participants. A neutral face cue with straight gaze was presented, which then averted its gaze to the side while remaining neutral or expressing an emotion (fear/surprise in Exp.1 and anger/happiness in Exp.2). Localization of a subsequent target was faster at the gazed-at location (congruent condition) than at the non-gazed-at location (incongruent condition). This Gaze-Orienting Effect (GOE) was enhanced for fear, surprise, and anger, compared to neutral expressions which did not differ from happy expressions. In addition, Event Related Potentials (ERPs) to the target showed a congruency effect on P1 for fear and surprise and a left lateralized congruency effect on P1 for happy faces, suggesting that target visual processing was also influenced by attention to gaze and emotions. Finally, at cue presentation, early postero-lateral (Early Directing Attention Negativity (EDAN)) and later antero-lateral (Anterior Directing Attention Negativity (ADAN)) attention-related ERP components were observed, reflecting, respectively, the shift of attention and its holding at gazed-at locations. These two components were not modulated by emotions. Together, these findings show that the processing of social signals such as gaze and facial expression interact rather late and in a complex manner to modulate spatial attention. PMID:24047232
A Common Core for Active Conceptual Modeling for Learning from Surprises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liddle, Stephen W.; Embley, David W.
The new field of active conceptual modeling for learning from surprises (ACM-L) may be helpful in preserving life, protecting property, and improving quality of life. The conceptual modeling community has developed sound theory and practices for conceptual modeling that, if properly applied, could help analysts model and predict more accurately. In particular, we need to associate more semantics with links, and we need fully reified high-level objects and relationships that have a clear, formal underlying semantics that follows a natural, ontological approach. We also need to capture more dynamic aspects in our conceptual models to more accurately model complex, dynamic systems. These concepts already exist, and the theory is well developed; what remains is to link them with the ideas needed to predict system evolution, thus enabling risk assessment and response planning. No single researcher or research group will be able to achieve this ambitious vision alone. As a starting point, we recommend that the nascent ACM-L community agree on a common core model that supports all aspects—static and dynamic—needed for active conceptual modeling in support of learning from surprises. A common core will more likely gain the traction needed to sustain the extended ACM-L research effort that will yield the advertised benefits of learning from surprises.
Attraction Effects in Honorific Agreement in Korean
Kwon, Nayoung; Sturt, Patrick
2016-01-01
Previous studies have suggested that sentence processing is mediated by content-addressable direct retrieval processes (McElree, 2000; McElree et al., 2003). However, the memory retrieval processes may differ as a function of the type of dependency. For example, while many studies have reported facilitatory intrusion effects associated with a structurally illicit antecedent during the processing of subject-verb number or person agreement and negative polarity items (Pearlmutter et al., 1999; Xiang et al., 2009; Dillon et al., 2013), studies investigating reflexives have not found consistent evidence of intrusion effects (Parker et al., 2015; Sturt and Kwon, 2015; cf. Nicol and Swinney, 1989; Sturt, 2003). Similarly, the memory retrieval processes could be also sensitive to cross-linguistic differences (cf. Lago et al., 2015). We report one self-paced reading experiment and one eye-tracking experiment that examine the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement, a dependency that is different from those that have been studied to date, in Korean, a typologically different language from those previously studied. The overall results suggest that the retrieval processes underlying the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement in Korean are susceptible to facilitatory intrusion effects from a structurally illicit but feature-matching subject, with a pattern that is similar to subject-verb agreement in English. In addition, the attraction effect was not limited to the ungrammatical sentences but was also found in grammatical sentences. The clear attraction effect in the grammatical sentences suggest that the attraction effect does not solely arise as the result of an error-driven process (cf. Wagers et al., 2009), but is likely also to result from general mechanisms of retrieval processes of activating of potential items in memory (Vasishth et al., 2008). PMID:27630594
Attraction Effects in Honorific Agreement in Korean.
Kwon, Nayoung; Sturt, Patrick
2016-01-01
Previous studies have suggested that sentence processing is mediated by content-addressable direct retrieval processes (McElree, 2000; McElree et al., 2003). However, the memory retrieval processes may differ as a function of the type of dependency. For example, while many studies have reported facilitatory intrusion effects associated with a structurally illicit antecedent during the processing of subject-verb number or person agreement and negative polarity items (Pearlmutter et al., 1999; Xiang et al., 2009; Dillon et al., 2013), studies investigating reflexives have not found consistent evidence of intrusion effects (Parker et al., 2015; Sturt and Kwon, 2015; cf. Nicol and Swinney, 1989; Sturt, 2003). Similarly, the memory retrieval processes could be also sensitive to cross-linguistic differences (cf. Lago et al., 2015). We report one self-paced reading experiment and one eye-tracking experiment that examine the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement, a dependency that is different from those that have been studied to date, in Korean, a typologically different language from those previously studied. The overall results suggest that the retrieval processes underlying the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement in Korean are susceptible to facilitatory intrusion effects from a structurally illicit but feature-matching subject, with a pattern that is similar to subject-verb agreement in English. In addition, the attraction effect was not limited to the ungrammatical sentences but was also found in grammatical sentences. The clear attraction effect in the grammatical sentences suggest that the attraction effect does not solely arise as the result of an error-driven process (cf. Wagers et al., 2009), but is likely also to result from general mechanisms of retrieval processes of activating of potential items in memory (Vasishth et al., 2008). PMID:27630594
Attraction Effects in Honorific Agreement in Korean
Kwon, Nayoung; Sturt, Patrick
2016-01-01
Previous studies have suggested that sentence processing is mediated by content-addressable direct retrieval processes (McElree, 2000; McElree et al., 2003). However, the memory retrieval processes may differ as a function of the type of dependency. For example, while many studies have reported facilitatory intrusion effects associated with a structurally illicit antecedent during the processing of subject-verb number or person agreement and negative polarity items (Pearlmutter et al., 1999; Xiang et al., 2009; Dillon et al., 2013), studies investigating reflexives have not found consistent evidence of intrusion effects (Parker et al., 2015; Sturt and Kwon, 2015; cf. Nicol and Swinney, 1989; Sturt, 2003). Similarly, the memory retrieval processes could be also sensitive to cross-linguistic differences (cf. Lago et al., 2015). We report one self-paced reading experiment and one eye-tracking experiment that examine the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement, a dependency that is different from those that have been studied to date, in Korean, a typologically different language from those previously studied. The overall results suggest that the retrieval processes underlying the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement in Korean are susceptible to facilitatory intrusion effects from a structurally illicit but feature-matching subject, with a pattern that is similar to subject-verb agreement in English. In addition, the attraction effect was not limited to the ungrammatical sentences but was also found in grammatical sentences. The clear attraction effect in the grammatical sentences suggest that the attraction effect does not solely arise as the result of an error-driven process (cf. Wagers et al., 2009), but is likely also to result from general mechanisms of retrieval processes of activating of potential items in memory (Vasishth et al., 2008).
Attraction Effects in Honorific Agreement in Korean.
Kwon, Nayoung; Sturt, Patrick
2016-01-01
Previous studies have suggested that sentence processing is mediated by content-addressable direct retrieval processes (McElree, 2000; McElree et al., 2003). However, the memory retrieval processes may differ as a function of the type of dependency. For example, while many studies have reported facilitatory intrusion effects associated with a structurally illicit antecedent during the processing of subject-verb number or person agreement and negative polarity items (Pearlmutter et al., 1999; Xiang et al., 2009; Dillon et al., 2013), studies investigating reflexives have not found consistent evidence of intrusion effects (Parker et al., 2015; Sturt and Kwon, 2015; cf. Nicol and Swinney, 1989; Sturt, 2003). Similarly, the memory retrieval processes could be also sensitive to cross-linguistic differences (cf. Lago et al., 2015). We report one self-paced reading experiment and one eye-tracking experiment that examine the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement, a dependency that is different from those that have been studied to date, in Korean, a typologically different language from those previously studied. The overall results suggest that the retrieval processes underlying the processing of subject-verb honorific agreement in Korean are susceptible to facilitatory intrusion effects from a structurally illicit but feature-matching subject, with a pattern that is similar to subject-verb agreement in English. In addition, the attraction effect was not limited to the ungrammatical sentences but was also found in grammatical sentences. The clear attraction effect in the grammatical sentences suggest that the attraction effect does not solely arise as the result of an error-driven process (cf. Wagers et al., 2009), but is likely also to result from general mechanisms of retrieval processes of activating of potential items in memory (Vasishth et al., 2008).
Basins of attraction for chimera states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martens, Erik A.; Panaggio, Mark J.; Abrams, Daniel M.
2016-02-01
Chimera states—curious symmetry-broken states in systems of identical coupled oscillators—typically occur only for certain initial conditions. Here we analyze their basins of attraction in a simple system comprised of two populations. Using perturbative analysis and numerical simulation we evaluate asymptotic states and associated destination maps, and demonstrate that basins form a complex twisting structure in phase space. Understanding the basins’ precise nature may help in the development of control methods to switch between chimera patterns, with possible technological and neural system applications.
[Research as attractiveness parameter for young surgeons].
Vollmar, B
2012-04-01
Increasing concern has been expressed about the significant shortage of new trainees in surgery. As research in the context of surgical education and training is an essential element of attraction for the field of surgery, there is an urgent priority to implement clear room for research in the concepts of education and training. In this article the relevance of both the thesis accompanying the study and research training during surgical residency for the clinical self-image, personal satisfaction and academic development of young surgeons will be presented.
[Near fatal attraction of ingested magnets].
Munchak, Itamar; Yardeni, Dan; Jacobson, Jeffrey M; Soudack-Ben Nun, Michalle; Augarten, Arie
2013-03-01
We report a case of intestinal perforation in a 20 month old girl following the ingestion of 2 small magnets. Ingestion of multiple magnets constitutes a unique problem. Magnets in adjacent intestinal loops may forcefully attract each other and produce pressure necrosis of the bowel wall, leading to perforation, fistula formation or intestinal obstruction. Therefore, these children should be observed carefully. Early surgical intervention should be considered when clinical symptoms develop, especially when, on sequential abdominal radiographs, there is no change in the magnets' location. Since toys with small magnets are ubiquitous, efforts should be made to increase parents' awareness on the one hand, and to alert toy manufacturers on the other hand.
Orlovskis, Zigmunds; Hogenhout, Saskia A
2016-01-01
Parasites can take over their hosts and trigger dramatic changes in host appearance and behavior that are typically interpreted as extended phenotypes that promote parasite survival and fitness. For example, Toxoplasma gondii is thought to manipulate the behaviors of infected rodents to aid transmission to cats and parasitic trematodes of the genus Ribeiroia alter limb development in their amphibian hosts to facilitate predation of the latter by birds. Plant parasites and pathogens also reprogram host development and morphology. However, whereas some parasite-induced morphological alterations may have a direct benefit to the fitness of the parasite and may therefore be adaptive, other host alterations may be side effects of parasite infections having no adaptive effects on parasite fitness. Phytoplasma parasites of plants often induce the development of leaf-like flowers (phyllody) in their host plants, and we previously found that the phytoplasma effector SAP54 generates these leaf-like flowers via the degradation of plant MADS-box transcription factors (MTFs), which regulate all major aspects of development in plants. Leafhoppers prefer to reproduce on phytoplasma-infected and SAP54-trangenic plants leading to the hypothesis that leafhopper vectors are attracted to plants with leaf-like flowers. Surprisingly, here we show that leafhopper attraction occurs independently of the presence of leaf-like flowers. First, the leafhoppers were also attracted to SAP54 transgenic plants without leaf-like flowers and to single leaves of these plants. Moreover, leafhoppers were not attracted to leaf-like flowers of MTF-mutant plants without the presence of SAP54. Thus, the primary role of SAP54 is to attract leafhopper vectors, which spread the phytoplasmas, and the generation of leaf-like flowers may be secondary or a side effect of the SAP54-mediated degradation of MTFs. PMID:27446117
Orlovskis, Zigmunds; Hogenhout, Saskia A.
2016-01-01
Parasites can take over their hosts and trigger dramatic changes in host appearance and behavior that are typically interpreted as extended phenotypes that promote parasite survival and fitness. For example, Toxoplasma gondii is thought to manipulate the behaviors of infected rodents to aid transmission to cats and parasitic trematodes of the genus Ribeiroia alter limb development in their amphibian hosts to facilitate predation of the latter by birds. Plant parasites and pathogens also reprogram host development and morphology. However, whereas some parasite-induced morphological alterations may have a direct benefit to the fitness of the parasite and may therefore be adaptive, other host alterations may be side effects of parasite infections having no adaptive effects on parasite fitness. Phytoplasma parasites of plants often induce the development of leaf-like flowers (phyllody) in their host plants, and we previously found that the phytoplasma effector SAP54 generates these leaf-like flowers via the degradation of plant MADS-box transcription factors (MTFs), which regulate all major aspects of development in plants. Leafhoppers prefer to reproduce on phytoplasma-infected and SAP54-trangenic plants leading to the hypothesis that leafhopper vectors are attracted to plants with leaf-like flowers. Surprisingly, here we show that leafhopper attraction occurs independently of the presence of leaf-like flowers. First, the leafhoppers were also attracted to SAP54 transgenic plants without leaf-like flowers and to single leaves of these plants. Moreover, leafhoppers were not attracted to leaf-like flowers of MTF-mutant plants without the presence of SAP54. Thus, the primary role of SAP54 is to attract leafhopper vectors, which spread the phytoplasmas, and the generation of leaf-like flowers may be secondary or a side effect of the SAP54-mediated degradation of MTFs. PMID:27446117
Potentials-attract or likes-attract in human mate choice in China.
He, Qiao-Qiao; Zhang, Zhen; Zhang, Jian-Xin; Wang, Zhi-Guo; Tu, Ying; Ji, Ting; Tao, Yi
2013-01-01
To explain how individuals' self-perceived long-term mate value influences their mate preference and mate choice, two hypotheses have been presented, which are "potentials-attract" and "likes-attract", respectively. The potentials-attract means that people choose mates matched with their sex-specific traits indicating reproductive potentials; and the likes-attract means that people choose mates matched with their own conditions. However, the debate about these two hypotheses still remains unsolved. In this paper, we tested these two hypotheses using a human's actual mate choice data from a Chinese online dating system (called the Baihe website), where 27,183 users of Baihe website are included, in which there are 590 paired couples (1180 individuals) who met each other via the website. Our main results show that not only the relationship between individuals' own attributes and their self-stated mate preference but also that between individuals' own attributes and their actual mate choice are more consistent with the likes-attract hypothesis, i.e., people tend to choose mates who are similar to themselves in a variety of attributes.
Potentials-attract or likes-attract in human mate choice in China.
He, Qiao-Qiao; Zhang, Zhen; Zhang, Jian-Xin; Wang, Zhi-Guo; Tu, Ying; Ji, Ting; Tao, Yi
2013-01-01
To explain how individuals' self-perceived long-term mate value influences their mate preference and mate choice, two hypotheses have been presented, which are "potentials-attract" and "likes-attract", respectively. The potentials-attract means that people choose mates matched with their sex-specific traits indicating reproductive potentials; and the likes-attract means that people choose mates matched with their own conditions. However, the debate about these two hypotheses still remains unsolved. In this paper, we tested these two hypotheses using a human's actual mate choice data from a Chinese online dating system (called the Baihe website), where 27,183 users of Baihe website are included, in which there are 590 paired couples (1180 individuals) who met each other via the website. Our main results show that not only the relationship between individuals' own attributes and their self-stated mate preference but also that between individuals' own attributes and their actual mate choice are more consistent with the likes-attract hypothesis, i.e., people tend to choose mates who are similar to themselves in a variety of attributes. PMID:23565153
Sire attractiveness influences offspring performance in guppies.
Evans, Jonathan P; Kelley, Jennifer L; Bisazza, Angelo; Finazzo, Elisabetta; Pilastro, Andrea
2004-10-01
According to the good-genes hypothesis, females choose among males to ensure the inheritance of superior paternal genes by their offspring. Despite increasing support for this prediction, in some cases differential (non-genetic) maternal effects may obscure or amplify the relationship between paternal attractiveness and offspring quality. Artificial insemination controls such effects because it uncouples mate choice from copulation, therefore denying females the opportunity of assessing male attractiveness. We adopted this technique in the live-bearing fish Poecilia reticulata and examined whether paternal coloration was associated with the behavioural performance of newborn offspring. Sexually receptive virgin females were inseminated with sperm taken individually from donor males that exhibited high variation in the area of orange pigmentation, a trait known to influence female choice in the study population. Our analysis of offspring performance focused on the anti-predator behaviour of newborn fish, including schooling by sibling pairs, the response (swimming speed) of these fishes to a simulated avian predator, and the time taken for a naive investigator to capture the offspring. Although we found no significant effect of sire coloration on either schooling or swimming speed, our analysis revealed a significant positive association between sire coloration and the ability of newborn offspring to evade capture. This finding supports the view that at least one aspect of anti-predator behaviour in newborn offspring is influenced by sire genotype, which in turn is revealed by the expression of secondary sexual traits. PMID:15451693
Sire attractiveness influences offspring performance in guppies.
Evans, Jonathan P; Kelley, Jennifer L; Bisazza, Angelo; Finazzo, Elisabetta; Pilastro, Andrea
2004-10-01
According to the good-genes hypothesis, females choose among males to ensure the inheritance of superior paternal genes by their offspring. Despite increasing support for this prediction, in some cases differential (non-genetic) maternal effects may obscure or amplify the relationship between paternal attractiveness and offspring quality. Artificial insemination controls such effects because it uncouples mate choice from copulation, therefore denying females the opportunity of assessing male attractiveness. We adopted this technique in the live-bearing fish Poecilia reticulata and examined whether paternal coloration was associated with the behavioural performance of newborn offspring. Sexually receptive virgin females were inseminated with sperm taken individually from donor males that exhibited high variation in the area of orange pigmentation, a trait known to influence female choice in the study population. Our analysis of offspring performance focused on the anti-predator behaviour of newborn fish, including schooling by sibling pairs, the response (swimming speed) of these fishes to a simulated avian predator, and the time taken for a naive investigator to capture the offspring. Although we found no significant effect of sire coloration on either schooling or swimming speed, our analysis revealed a significant positive association between sire coloration and the ability of newborn offspring to evade capture. This finding supports the view that at least one aspect of anti-predator behaviour in newborn offspring is influenced by sire genotype, which in turn is revealed by the expression of secondary sexual traits.
Sire attractiveness influences offspring performance in guppies.
Evans, Jonathan P.; Kelley, Jennifer L.; Bisazza, Angelo; Finazzo, Elisabetta; Pilastro, Andrea
2004-01-01
According to the good-genes hypothesis, females choose among males to ensure the inheritance of superior paternal genes by their offspring. Despite increasing support for this prediction, in some cases differential (non-genetic) maternal effects may obscure or amplify the relationship between paternal attractiveness and offspring quality. Artificial insemination controls such effects because it uncouples mate choice from copulation, therefore denying females the opportunity of assessing male attractiveness. We adopted this technique in the live-bearing fish Poecilia reticulata and examined whether paternal coloration was associated with the behavioural performance of newborn offspring. Sexually receptive virgin females were inseminated with sperm taken individually from donor males that exhibited high variation in the area of orange pigmentation, a trait known to influence female choice in the study population. Our analysis of offspring performance focused on the anti-predator behaviour of newborn fish, including schooling by sibling pairs, the response (swimming speed) of these fishes to a simulated avian predator, and the time taken for a naive investigator to capture the offspring. Although we found no significant effect of sire coloration on either schooling or swimming speed, our analysis revealed a significant positive association between sire coloration and the ability of newborn offspring to evade capture. This finding supports the view that at least one aspect of anti-predator behaviour in newborn offspring is influenced by sire genotype, which in turn is revealed by the expression of secondary sexual traits. PMID:15451693