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Sample records for bayesian surprise attracts

  1. Bayesian surprise attracts human attention

    PubMed Central

    Itti, Laurent; Baldi, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    We propose a formal Bayesian definition of surprise to capture subjective aspects of sensory information. Surprise measures how data affects an observer, in terms of differences between posterior and prior beliefs about the world. Only data observations which substantially affect the observer’s beliefs yield surprise, irrespectively of how rare or informative in Shannon’s sense these observations are. We test the framework by quantifying the extent to which humans may orient attention and gaze towards surprising events or items while watching television. To this end, we implement a simple computational model where a low-level, sensory form of surprise is computed by simple simulated early visual neurons. Bayesian surprise is a strong attractor of human attention, with 72% of all gaze shifts directed towards locations more surprising than the average, a figure rising to 84% when focusing the analysis onto regions simultaneously selected by all observers. The proposed theory of surprise is applicable across different spatio-temporal scales, modalities, and levels of abstraction. PMID:18834898

  2. Surprise! Bayesian Weighting for De-Biasing Thematic Maps.

    PubMed

    Correll, Michael; Heer, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    Thematic maps are commonly used for visualizing the density of events in spatial data. However, these maps can mislead by giving visual prominence to known base rates (such as population densities) or to artifacts of sample size and normalization (such as outliers arising from smaller, and thus more variable, samples). In this work, we adapt Bayesian surprise to generate maps that counter these biases. Bayesian surprise, which has shown promise for modeling human visual attention, weights information with respect to how it updates beliefs over a space of models. We introduce Surprise Maps, a visualization technique that weights event data relative to a set of spatia-temporal models. Unexpected events (those that induce large changes in belief over the model space) are visualized more prominently than those that follow expected patterns. Using both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate how Surprise Maps overcome some limitations of traditional event maps.

  3. Bayesian long branch attraction bias and corrections.

    PubMed

    Susko, Edward

    2015-03-01

    Previous work on the star-tree paradox has shown that Bayesian methods suffer from a long branch attraction bias. That work is extended to settings involving more taxa and partially resolved trees. The long branch attraction bias is confirmed to arise more broadly and an additional source of bias is found. A by-product of the analysis is methods that correct for biases toward particular topologies. The corrections can be easily calculated using existing Bayesian software. Posterior support for a set of two or more trees can thus be supplemented with corrected versions to cross-check or replace results. Simulations show the corrections to be highly effective.

  4. Long-Branch Attraction Bias and Inconsistency in Bayesian Phylogenetics

    PubMed Central

    Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W.

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias—which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data—also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages—that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis. PMID:20011052

  5. Bayesian motion estimation accounts for a surprising bias in 3D vision

    PubMed Central

    Welchman, Andrew E.; Lam, Judith M.; Bülthoff, Heinrich H.

    2008-01-01

    Determining the approach of a moving object is a vital survival skill that depends on the brain combining information about lateral translation and motion-in-depth. Given the importance of sensing motion for obstacle avoidance, it is surprising that humans make errors, reporting an object will miss them when it is on a collision course with their head. Here we provide evidence that biases observed when participants estimate movement in depth result from the brain's use of a “prior” favoring slow velocity. We formulate a Bayesian model for computing 3D motion using independently estimated parameters for the shape of the visual system's slow velocity prior. We demonstrate the success of this model in accounting for human behavior in separate experiments that assess both sensitivity and bias in 3D motion estimation. Our results show that a surprising perceptual error in 3D motion perception reflects the importance of prior probabilities when estimating environmental properties. PMID:18697948

  6. Bayesian motion estimation accounts for a surprising bias in 3D vision.

    PubMed

    Welchman, Andrew E; Lam, Judith M; Bülthoff, Heinrich H

    2008-08-19

    Determining the approach of a moving object is a vital survival skill that depends on the brain combining information about lateral translation and motion-in-depth. Given the importance of sensing motion for obstacle avoidance, it is surprising that humans make errors, reporting an object will miss them when it is on a collision course with their head. Here we provide evidence that biases observed when participants estimate movement in depth result from the brain's use of a "prior" favoring slow velocity. We formulate a Bayesian model for computing 3D motion using independently estimated parameters for the shape of the visual system's slow velocity prior. We demonstrate the success of this model in accounting for human behavior in separate experiments that assess both sensitivity and bias in 3D motion estimation. Our results show that a surprising perceptual error in 3D motion perception reflects the importance of prior probabilities when estimating environmental properties.

  7. Convergence among cave catfishes: long-branch attraction and a Bayesian relative rates test.

    PubMed

    Wilcox, T P; García de León, F J; Hendrickson, D A; Hillis, D M

    2004-06-01

    Convergence has long been of interest to evolutionary biologists. Cave organisms appear to be ideal candidates for studying convergence in morphological, physiological, and developmental traits. Here we report apparent convergence in two cave-catfishes that were described on morphological grounds as congeners: Prietella phreatophila and Prietella lundbergi. We collected mitochondrial DNA sequence data from 10 species of catfishes, representing five of the seven genera in Ictaluridae, as well as seven species from a broad range of siluriform outgroups. Analysis of the sequence data under parsimony supports a monophyletic Prietella. However, both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian analyses support polyphyly of the genus, with P. lundbergi sister to Ictalurus and P. phreatophila sister to Ameiurus. The topological difference between parsimony and the other methods appears to result from long-branch attraction between the Prietella species. Similarly, the sequence data do not support several other relationships within Ictaluridae supported by morphology. We develop a new Bayesian method for examining variation in molecular rates of evolution across a phylogeny.

  8. Surprises (Children's Books).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freeman, Evelyn B.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Presents brief annotations of 48 children's books that hold surprising creatures; surprises of magic and mystery; surprises of humor and trickery, surprises of growing up; cultural surprises; and surprising resources relating to poetry, dinosaurs, and science. (SR)

  9. Facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Little, Anthony C

    2014-11-01

    Facial attractiveness has important social consequences. Despite a widespread belief that beauty cannot be defined, in fact, there is considerable agreement across individuals and cultures on what is found attractive. By considering that attraction and mate choice are critical components of evolutionary selection, we can better understand the importance of beauty. There are many traits that are linked to facial attractiveness in humans and each may in some way impart benefits to individuals who act on their preferences. If a trait is reliably associated with some benefit to the perceiver, then we would expect individuals in a population to find that trait attractive. Such an approach has highlighted face traits such as age, health, symmetry, and averageness, which are proposed to be associated with benefits and so associated with facial attractiveness. This view may postulate that some traits will be universally attractive; however, this does not preclude variation. Indeed, it would be surprising if there existed a template of a perfect face that was not affected by experience, environment, context, or the specific needs of an individual. Research on facial attractiveness has documented how various face traits are associated with attractiveness and various factors that impact on an individual's judgments of facial attractiveness. Overall, facial attractiveness is complex, both in the number of traits that determine attraction and in the large number of factors that can alter attraction to particular faces. A fuller understanding of facial beauty will come with an understanding of how these various factors interact with each other. WIREs Cogn Sci 2014, 5:621-634. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1316 CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The author has declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  10. Pepper Oil Surprise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    Astronauts Cady Coleman and Paolo Nespoli perform the Pepper Oil Surprise experiment from Potlatch Elementary School in Potlatch, Idaho. This research investigates the interaction of liquid pepper/...

  11. Novelty or Surprise?

    PubMed Central

    Barto, Andrew; Mirolli, Marco; Baldassarre, Gianluca

    2013-01-01

    Novelty and surprise play significant roles in animal behavior and in attempts to understand the neural mechanisms underlying it. They also play important roles in technology, where detecting observations that are novel or surprising is central to many applications, such as medical diagnosis, text processing, surveillance, and security. Theories of motivation, particularly of intrinsic motivation, place novelty and surprise among the primary factors that arouse interest, motivate exploratory or avoidance behavior, and drive learning. In many of these studies, novelty and surprise are not distinguished from one another: the words are used more-or-less interchangeably. However, while undeniably closely related, novelty and surprise are very different. The purpose of this article is first to highlight the differences between novelty and surprise and to discuss how they are related by presenting an extensive review of mathematical and computational proposals related to them, and then to explore the implications of this for understanding behavioral and neuroscience data. We argue that opportunities for improved understanding of behavior and its neural basis are likely being missed by failing to distinguish between novelty and surprise. PMID:24376428

  12. Transformation and Strategic Surprise

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-04-01

    not the enemy. Only in the rarest of cases is a strategic or operational level surprise itself so damaging that the defender is rendered incapable of...aptly perhaps a way with war, which has deprived its warriors, and the country, of political rewards earned and deserved by their blood . Given that our

  13. The comprehensive health care orientation process indicators explain hospital organisation's attractiveness: a Bayesian analysis of newly hired nurse and physician survey data.

    PubMed

    Peltokoski, Jaana; Vehviläinen-Julkunen, Katri; Pitkäaho, Taina; Mikkonen, Santtu; Miettinen, Merja

    2015-10-01

    To examine the relationship of a comprehensive health care orientation process with a hospital's attractiveness. Little is known about indicators of the employee orientation process that most likely explain a hospital organisation's attractiveness. Empirical data collected from registered nurses (n = 145) and physicians (n = 37) working in two specialised hospital districts. A Naive Bayes Classification was applied to examine the comprehensive orientation process indicators that predict hospital's attractiveness. The model was composed of five orientation process indicators: the contribution of the orientation process to nurses' and physicians' intention to stay; the defined responsibilities of the orientation process; interaction between newcomer and colleagues; responsibilities that are adapted for tasks; and newcomers' baseline knowledge assessment that should be done before the orientation phase. The Naive Bayes Classification was used to explore employee orientation process and related indicators. The model constructed provides insight that can be used in designing and implementing the orientation process to promote the hospital organisation's attractiveness. Managers should focus on developing fluently organised orientation practices based on the indicators that predict the hospital's attractiveness. For the purpose of personalised orientation, employees' baseline knowledge and competence level should be assessed before the orientation phase. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Warm climate surprises

    SciTech Connect

    Overpeck, J.T.

    1996-03-29

    Over the last decade, paleoclimatic data from ice cores and sediments have shown that the climate system is capable of switching between significantly different modes, suggesting that climatic surprises may lie ahead. Most attention in the growing area of abrupt climatic change research continues to be focused on large changes observed during glacial periods. The weight of paleoclimatic evidence now suggests that conforting conclusions of benign warm climate variability may be incorrect. The article goes on to discuss the evidence for this. 17 refs.

  15. Exploration, novelty, surprise, and free energy minimization.

    PubMed

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews recent developments under the free energy principle that introduce a normative perspective on classical economic (utilitarian) decision-making based on (active) Bayesian inference. It has been suggested that the free energy principle precludes novelty and complexity, because it assumes that biological systems-like ourselves-try to minimize the long-term average of surprise to maintain their homeostasis. However, recent formulations show that minimizing surprise leads naturally to concepts such as exploration and novelty bonuses. In this approach, agents infer a policy that minimizes surprise by minimizing the difference (or relative entropy) between likely and desired outcomes, which involves both pursuing the goal-state that has the highest expected utility (often termed "exploitation") and visiting a number of different goal-states ("exploration"). Crucially, the opportunity to visit new states increases the value of the current state. Casting decision-making problems within a variational framework, therefore, predicts that our behavior is governed by both the entropy and expected utility of future states. This dissolves any dialectic between minimizing surprise and exploration or novelty seeking.

  16. A New Sputnik Surprise?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lowman, Paul D., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggests that a new "Sputnik surprise" in the form of a joint Chinese-Russian lunar base program may emerge in this decade. The Moon as a whole has been shown to be territory of strategic value, with discovery of large amounts of hydrogen (probably water ice) at the lunar poles and helium 3 everywhere in the soil, in addition to the Moon's scientific value as an object of study and as a platform for astronomy. There is thus good reason for a return to the Moon, robotically or manned. Relations between China and Russia have thawed since the mid-1990s, and the two countries have a formal space cooperation pact. It is argued here that a manned lunar program would be feasible within 5 years, using modern technology and proven spacecraft and launch vehicles. The combination of Russian lunar hardware with Chinese space technology would permit the two countries together to take the lead in solar system exploration in the 21st century.

  17. Surprises in astrophysical gasdynamics.

    PubMed

    Balbus, Steven A; Potter, William J

    2016-06-01

    Much of astrophysics consists of the study of ionized gas under the influence of gravitational and magnetic fields. Thus, it is not possible to understand the astrophysical universe without a detailed knowledge of the dynamics of magnetized fluids. Fluid dynamics is, however, a notoriously tricky subject, in which it is all too easy for one's a priori intuition to go astray. In this review, we seek to guide the reader through a series of illuminating yet deceptive problems, all with an enlightening twist. We cover a broad range of topics including the instabilities acting in accretion discs, the hydrodynamics governing the convective zone of the Sun, the magnetic shielding of a cooling galaxy cluster, and the behaviour of thermal instabilities and evaporating clouds. The aim of this review is to surprise and intrigue even veteran astrophysical theorists with an idiosyncratic choice of problems and counterintuitive results. At the same time, we endeavour to bring forth the fundamental ideas, to set out important assumptions, and to describe carefully whatever novel techniques may be appropriate to the problem at hand. By beginning at the beginning, and analysing a wide variety of astrophysical settings, we seek not only to make this review suitable for fluid dynamic veterans, but to engage novice recruits as well with what we hope will be an unusual and instructive introduction to the subject.

  18. Surprises in astrophysical gasdynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balbus, Steven A.; Potter, William J.

    2016-06-01

    Much of astrophysics consists of the study of ionized gas under the influence of gravitational and magnetic fields. Thus, it is not possible to understand the astrophysical universe without a detailed knowledge of the dynamics of magnetized fluids. Fluid dynamics is, however, a notoriously tricky subject, in which it is all too easy for one’s a priori intuition to go astray. In this review, we seek to guide the reader through a series of illuminating yet deceptive problems, all with an enlightening twist. We cover a broad range of topics including the instabilities acting in accretion discs, the hydrodynamics governing the convective zone of the Sun, the magnetic shielding of a cooling galaxy cluster, and the behaviour of thermal instabilities and evaporating clouds. The aim of this review is to surprise and intrigue even veteran astrophysical theorists with an idiosyncratic choice of problems and counterintuitive results. At the same time, we endeavour to bring forth the fundamental ideas, to set out important assumptions, and to describe carefully whatever novel techniques may be appropriate to the problem at hand. By beginning at the beginning, and analysing a wide variety of astrophysical settings, we seek not only to make this review suitable for fluid dynamic veterans, but to engage novice recruits as well with what we hope will be an unusual and instructive introduction to the subject.

  19. Why some surprises are more surprising than others: Surprise as a metacognitive sense of explanatory difficulty.

    PubMed

    Foster, Meadhbh I; Keane, Mark T

    2015-09-01

    Early theories of surprise, including Darwin's, argued that it was predominantly a basic emotion. Recently, theories have taken a more cognitive view of surprise, casting it as a process of "making sense of surprising events". The current paper advances the view that the essence of this sense-making process is explanation; specifically, that people's perception of surprise is a metacognitive estimate of the cognitive work involved in explaining an abnormal event. So, some surprises are more surprising because they are harder to explain. This proposal is tested in eight experiments that explore how (i) the contents of memory can influence surprise, (ii) different classes of scenarios can retrieve more/less relevant knowledge from memory to explain surprising outcomes, (iii) how partial explanations constrain the explanation process, reducing surprise, and (iv) how, overall, any factor that acts to increase the cognitive work in explaining a surprising event, results in higher levels of surprise (e.g., task demands to find three rather than one explanations). Across the present studies, using different materials, paradigms and measures, it is consistently and repeatedly found that the difficulty of explaining a surprising outcome is the best predictor for people's perceptions of the surprisingness of events. Alternative accounts of these results are considered, as are future directions for this research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Detecting communities using asymptotical surprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traag, V. A.; Aldecoa, R.; Delvenne, J.-C.

    2015-08-01

    Nodes in real-world networks are repeatedly observed to form dense clusters, often referred to as communities. Methods to detect these groups of nodes usually maximize an objective function, which implicitly contains the definition of a community. We here analyze a recently proposed measure called surprise, which assesses the quality of the partition of a network into communities. In its current form, the formulation of surprise is rather difficult to analyze. We here therefore develop an accurate asymptotic approximation. This allows for the development of an efficient algorithm for optimizing surprise. Incidentally, this leads to a straightforward extension of surprise to weighted graphs. Additionally, the approximation makes it possible to analyze surprise more closely and compare it to other methods, especially modularity. We show that surprise is (nearly) unaffected by the well-known resolution limit, a particular problem for modularity. However, surprise may tend to overestimate the number of communities, whereas they may be underestimated by modularity. In short, surprise works well in the limit of many small communities, whereas modularity works better in the limit of few large communities. In this sense, surprise is more discriminative than modularity and may find communities where modularity fails to discern any structure.

  1. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

  2. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

  3. Surprise: The Korean Case Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-05-18

    theory through education ; a mre rigid approach toward decision making in foriegn policy; appropriate military doctrine; mobile and flexible forces. 20...TJUR 19 ARSTRAC7 (Contrwe on ,vvere of necesury end iderltIfy by block fnumber) Clearly m.ilitary surorise is arnng the greatest dangers a country ...SURPRISE: THE KOREAN CASE STUDY Clearly military surprise is among the greatest dangers a country can face. Despite a knowledge of this danger, responsible

  4. I'm not surprised

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2017-06-01

    It is easy to conflate what is known based on the scientific literature and what feels known because it is intuitive. However, empirical validation and precision are particularly critical for policy-relevant behavioural research, regardless of whether the results are surprising.

  5. [Bayesian statistic: an approach fitted to clinic].

    PubMed

    Meyer, N; Vinzio, S; Goichot, B

    2009-03-01

    Bayesian statistic has known a growing success though quite limited. This is surprising since Bayes' theorem on which this paradigm relies is frequently used by the clinicians. There is a direct link between the routine diagnostic test and the Bayesian statistic. This link is the Bayes' theorem which allows one to compute positive and negative predictive values of a test. The principle of this theorem is extended to simple statistical situations as an introduction to Bayesian statistic. The conceptual simplicity of Bayesian statistic should make for a greater acceptance in the biomedical world.

  6. Uncertainty and Surprise: An Introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDaniel, Reuben R.; Driebe, Dean J.

    Much of the traditional scientific and applied scientific work in the social and natural sciences has been built on the supposition that the unknowability of situations is the result of a lack of information. This has led to an emphasis on uncertainty reduction through ever-increasing information seeking and processing, including better measurement and observational instrumentation. Pending uncertainty reduction through better information, efforts are devoted to uncertainty management and hierarchies of controls. A central goal has been the avoidance of surprise.

  7. Bayesian clinical trials in action.

    PubMed

    Lee, J Jack; Chu, Caleb T

    2012-11-10

    Although the frequentist paradigm has been the predominant approach to clinical trial design since the 1940s, it has several notable limitations. Advancements in computational algorithms and computer hardware have greatly enhanced the alternative Bayesian paradigm. Compared with its frequentist counterpart, the Bayesian framework has several unique advantages, and its incorporation into clinical trial design is occurring more frequently. Using an extensive literature review to assess how Bayesian methods are used in clinical trials, we find them most commonly used for dose finding, efficacy monitoring, toxicity monitoring, diagnosis/decision making, and studying pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics. The additional infrastructure required for implementing Bayesian methods in clinical trials may include specialized software programs to run the study design, simulation and analysis, and web-based applications, all of which are particularly useful for timely data entry and analysis. Trial success requires not only the development of proper tools but also timely and accurate execution of data entry, quality control, adaptive randomization, and Bayesian computation. The relative merit of the Bayesian and frequentist approaches continues to be the subject of debate in statistics. However, more evidence can be found showing the convergence of the two camps, at least at the practical level. Ultimately, better clinical trial methods lead to more efficient designs, lower sample sizes, more accurate conclusions, and better outcomes for patients enrolled in the trials. Bayesian methods offer attractive alternatives for better trials. More Bayesian trials should be designed and conducted to refine the approach and demonstrate their real benefit in action.

  8. Seven surprises for new CEOs.

    PubMed

    Porter, Michael E; Lorsch, Jay W; Nohria, Nitin

    2004-10-01

    As a newly minted CEO, you may think you finally have the power to set strategy, the authority to make things happen, and full access to the finer points of your business. But if you expect the job to be as simple as that, you're in for an awakening. Even though you bear full responsibility for your company's well-being, you are a few steps removed from many of the factors that drive results. You have more power than anybody else in the corporation, but you need to use it with extreme caution. In their workshops for new CEOs, held at Harvard Business School in Boston, the authors have discovered that nothing--not even running a large business within the company--fully prepares a person to be the chief executive. The seven most common surprises are: You can't run the company. Giving orders is very costly. It is hard to know what is really going on. You are always sending a message. You are not the boss. Pleasing shareholders is not the goal. You are still only human. These surprises carry some important and subtle lessons. First, you must learn to manage organizational context rather than focus on daily operations. Second, you must recognize that your position does not confer the right to lead, nor does it guarantee the loyalty of the organization. Finally, you must remember that you are subject to a host of limitations, even though others might treat you as omnipotent. How well and how quickly you understand, accept, and confront the seven surprises will have a lot to do with your success or failure as a CEO.

  9. Eigenvalue Attraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Movassagh, Ramis

    2016-02-01

    We prove that the complex conjugate (c.c.) eigenvalues of a smoothly varying real matrix attract (Eq. 15). We offer a dynamical perspective on the motion and interaction of the eigenvalues in the complex plane, derive their governing equations and discuss applications. C.c. pairs closest to the real axis, or those that are ill-conditioned, attract most strongly and can collide to become exactly real. As an application we consider random perturbations of a fixed matrix M. If M is Normal, the total expected force on any eigenvalue is shown to be only the attraction of its c.c. (Eq. 24) and when M is circulant the strength of interaction can be related to the power spectrum of white noise. We extend this by calculating the expected force (Eq. 41) for real stochastic processes with zero-mean and independent intervals. To quantify the dominance of the c.c. attraction, we calculate the variance of other forces. We apply the results to the Hatano-Nelson model and provide other numerical illustrations. It is our hope that the simple dynamical perspective herein might help better understanding of the aggregation and low density of the eigenvalues of real random matrices on and near the real line respectively. In the appendix we provide a Matlab code for plotting the trajectories of the eigenvalues.

  10. Attracting Wildlife.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, Jay

    1979-01-01

    The artcile answers some questions frequently asked by growing numbers of bird and animal feeders regarding what types of feeders and seed to use and what kinds of birds can be attracted to a given area. It discusses problems which can arise from this enjoyable year-round recreation. (SB)

  11. Attracting Wildlife.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, Jay

    1979-01-01

    The artcile answers some questions frequently asked by growing numbers of bird and animal feeders regarding what types of feeders and seed to use and what kinds of birds can be attracted to a given area. It discusses problems which can arise from this enjoyable year-round recreation. (SB)

  12. BMDS: A Collection of R Functions for Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okada, Kensuke; Shigemasu, Kazuo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian multidimensional scaling (MDS) has attracted a great deal of attention because: (1) it provides a better fit than do classical MDS and ALSCAL; (2) it provides estimation errors of the distances; and (3) the Bayesian dimension selection criterion, MDSIC, provides a direct indication of optimal dimensionality. However, Bayesian MDS is not…

  13. BMDS: A Collection of R Functions for Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okada, Kensuke; Shigemasu, Kazuo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian multidimensional scaling (MDS) has attracted a great deal of attention because: (1) it provides a better fit than do classical MDS and ALSCAL; (2) it provides estimation errors of the distances; and (3) the Bayesian dimension selection criterion, MDSIC, provides a direct indication of optimal dimensionality. However, Bayesian MDS is not…

  14. Bayesian Clinical Trials in Action

    PubMed Central

    Lee, J. Jack; Chu, Caleb T.

    2012-01-01

    Although the frequentist paradigm has been the predominant approach to clinical trial design since the 1940s, it has several notable limitations. The alternative Bayesian paradigm has been greatly enhanced by advancements in computational algorithms and computer hardware. Compared to its frequentist counterpart, the Bayesian framework has several unique advantages, and its incorporation into clinical trial design is occurring more frequently. Using an extensive literature review to assess how Bayesian methods are used in clinical trials, we find them most commonly used for dose finding, efficacy monitoring, toxicity monitoring, diagnosis/decision making, and for studying pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics. The additional infrastructure required for implementing Bayesian methods in clinical trials may include specialized software programs to run the study design, simulation, and analysis, and Web-based applications, which are particularly useful for timely data entry and analysis. Trial success requires not only the development of proper tools but also timely and accurate execution of data entry, quality control, adaptive randomization, and Bayesian computation. The relative merit of the Bayesian and frequentist approaches continues to be the subject of debate in statistics. However, more evidence can be found showing the convergence of the two camps, at least at the practical level. Ultimately, better clinical trial methods lead to more efficient designs, lower sample sizes, more accurate conclusions, and better outcomes for patients enrolled in the trials. Bayesian methods offer attractive alternatives for better trials. More such trials should be designed and conducted to refine the approach and demonstrate its real benefit in action. PMID:22711340

  15. Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mallmann, A. James

    2016-01-01

    In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are…

  16. Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mallmann, A. James

    2016-01-01

    In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are…

  17. Rules of Attraction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    This image composite shows two of the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity's magnets, the 'capture' magnet (upper portion of left panel) and the 'filter' magnet (lower portion of left panel). Scientists use these tools to study the origins of martian dust in the atmosphere. The left panel was taken by the rover's panoramic camera. The four panels to the right, taken by the microscopic imager, show close-up views of the two magnets. The bull's-eye appearance of the capture magnet is a result of alternating magnetic fields, which are used to increase overall magnetic force. The filter magnet lacks these alternating fields and consequently produces a weaker magnetic force. This weaker force selectively attracts only strong magnetic particles.

    Scientists were surprised by the large dark particles on the magnets because airborne particles are smaller in size. They theorize that these spots might be aggregates of small particles that clump together in a magnetic field.

  18. Rules of Attraction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    This image composite shows two of the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity's magnets, the 'capture' magnet (upper portion of left panel) and the 'filter' magnet (lower portion of left panel). Scientists use these tools to study the origins of martian dust in the atmosphere. The left panel was taken by the rover's panoramic camera. The four panels to the right, taken by the microscopic imager, show close-up views of the two magnets. The bull's-eye appearance of the capture magnet is a result of alternating magnetic fields, which are used to increase overall magnetic force. The filter magnet lacks these alternating fields and consequently produces a weaker magnetic force. This weaker force selectively attracts only strong magnetic particles.

    Scientists were surprised by the large dark particles on the magnets because airborne particles are smaller in size. They theorize that these spots might be aggregates of small particles that clump together in a magnetic field.

  19. Young Galaxy's Magnetism Surprises Astronomers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2008-10-01

    Astronomers have made the first direct measurement of the magnetic field in a young, distant galaxy, and the result is a big surprise. Looking at a faraway protogalaxy seen as it was 6.5 billion years ago, the scientists measured a magnetic field at least 10 times stronger than that of our own Milky Way. They had expected just the opposite. The GBT Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope CREDIT: NRAO/AUI/NSF The scientists made the discovery using the National Science Foundation's ultra-sensitive Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT) in West Virginia. "This new measurement indicates that magnetic fields may play a more important role in the formation and evolution of galaxies than we have realized," said Arthur Wolfe, of the University of California-San Diego (UCSD). At its great distance, the protogalaxy is seen as it was when the Universe was about half its current age. According to the leading theory, cosmic magnetic fields are generated by the dynamos of rotating galaxies -- a process that would produce stronger fields with the passage of time. In this scenario, the magnetic fields should be weaker in the earlier Universe, not stronger. The new, direct magnetic-field measurement comes on the heels of a July report by Swiss and American astronomers who made indirect measurements that also implied strong magnetic fields in the early Universe. "Our results present a challenge to the dynamo model, but they do not rule it out," Wolfe said. There are other possible explanations for the strong magnetic field seen in the one protogalaxy Wolfe's team studied. "We may be seeing the field close to the central region of a massive galaxy, and we know such fields are stronger toward the centers of nearby galaxies. Also, the field we see may have been amplified by a shock wave caused by the collision of two galaxies," he said. The protogalaxy studied with the GBT, called DLA-3C286, consists of gas with little or no star formation occurring in it. The astronomers suspect that

  20. A computational analysis of the neural bases of Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Kolossa, Antonio; Kopp, Bruno; Fingscheidt, Tim

    2015-02-01

    Empirical support for the Bayesian brain hypothesis, although of major theoretical importance for cognitive neuroscience, is surprisingly scarce. This hypothesis posits simply that neural activities code and compute Bayesian probabilities. Here, we introduce an urn-ball paradigm to relate event-related potentials (ERPs) such as the P300 wave to Bayesian inference. Bayesian model comparison is conducted to compare various models in terms of their ability to explain trial-by-trial variation in ERP responses at different points in time and over different regions of the scalp. Specifically, we are interested in dissociating specific ERP responses in terms of Bayesian updating and predictive surprise. Bayesian updating refers to changes in probability distributions given new observations, while predictive surprise equals the surprise about observations under current probability distributions. Components of the late positive complex (P3a, P3b, Slow Wave) provide dissociable measures of Bayesian updating and predictive surprise. Specifically, the updating of beliefs about hidden states yields the best fit for the anteriorly distributed P3a, whereas the updating of predictions of observations accounts best for the posteriorly distributed Slow Wave. In addition, parietally distributed P3b responses are best fit by predictive surprise. These results indicate that the three components of the late positive complex reflect distinct neural computations. As such they are consistent with the Bayesian brain hypothesis, but these neural computations seem to be subject to nonlinear probability weighting. We integrate these findings with the free-energy principle that instantiates the Bayesian brain hypothesis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The Living Experience of Feeling Surprised.

    PubMed

    Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to report the finding of a Parse research method study on the universal living experience of feeling surprised. In dialogical engagement with the researcher, eight participants described the experience. The structure of the living experience of feeling surprised was found to be: Feeling surprised is stunning amazement arising with shifting fortunes, as delight amid despair surfaces with diverse involvements.

  2. Bayesian learning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denning, Peter J.

    1989-01-01

    In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.

  3. Evaluative Appraisals of Environmental Mystery and Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nasar, Jack L.; Cubukcu, Ebru

    2011-01-01

    This study used a desktop virtual environment (VE) of 15 large-scale residential streets to test the effects of environmental mystery and surprise on response. In theory, mystery and surprise should increase interest and visual appeal. For each VE, participants walked through an approach street and turned right onto a post-turn street. We designed…

  4. Cognitive and Social Perspectives on Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adhami, Mundler

    2007-01-01

    Meanings of "surprise" are wide and include uplifting and engaging facets like wonder and amazement on the one hand as well as ones that may be of the opposite nature like interruption and disrupt on the other. Pedagogically, educators who use surprise in class activities are focusing on students being "taken aback" by a situation, hopefully…

  5. Evaluative Appraisals of Environmental Mystery and Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nasar, Jack L.; Cubukcu, Ebru

    2011-01-01

    This study used a desktop virtual environment (VE) of 15 large-scale residential streets to test the effects of environmental mystery and surprise on response. In theory, mystery and surprise should increase interest and visual appeal. For each VE, participants walked through an approach street and turned right onto a post-turn street. We designed…

  6. Surprise: a belief or an emotion?

    PubMed

    Mellers, Barbara; Fincher, Katrina; Drummond, Caitlin; Bigony, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Surprise is a fundamental link between cognition and emotion. It is shaped by cognitive assessments of likelihood, intuition, and superstition, and it in turn shapes hedonic experiences. We examine this connection between cognition and emotion and offer an explanation called decision affect theory. Our theory predicts the affective consequences of mistaken beliefs, such as overconfidence and hindsight. It provides insight about why the pleasure of a gain can loom larger than the pain of a comparable loss. Finally, it explains cross-cultural differences in emotional reactions to surprising events. By changing the nature of the unexpected (from chance to good luck), one can alter the emotional reaction to surprising events.

  7. Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallmann, A. James

    2016-04-01

    In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are opportunities to expand beyond traditional presentations—and, in some cases, to achieve a deeper and broader understanding of those principles. I believe, moreover, that some of the facts presented here may inspire physics teachers to produce some challenge problems for students.

  8. A toolkit for detecting technical surprise.

    SciTech Connect

    Trahan, Michael Wayne; Foehse, Mark C.

    2010-10-01

    The detection of a scientific or technological surprise within a secretive country or institute is very difficult. The ability to detect such surprises would allow analysts to identify the capabilities that could be a military or economic threat to national security. Sandia's current approach utilizing ThreatView has been successful in revealing potential technological surprises. However, as data sets become larger, it becomes critical to use algorithms as filters along with the visualization environments. Our two-year LDRD had two primary goals. First, we developed a tool, a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), to extend ThreatView and improve our understanding of the issues involved in working with textual data sets. Second, we developed a toolkit for detecting indicators of technical surprise in textual data sets. Our toolkit has been successfully used to perform technology assessments for the Science & Technology Intelligence (S&TI) program.

  9. The Saltiest Foods May Surprise You

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_164370.html The Saltiest Foods May Surprise You U.S. report names major and ... it's coming from a lot of commonly consumed foods -- about 25 foods contribute the majority of salt," ...

  10. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    PubMed Central

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

  11. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  12. Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

    PubMed

    Campbell, John O

    2016-01-01

    Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

  13. [Some recent surprises in global demography].

    PubMed

    Poursin, J

    1994-01-01

    The author points out that, despite the fact that the inherent inertia in demographic phenomena should facilitate the preparation of accurate population projections, several recently identified trends have come as a surprise to many demographers. These trends include the recent Nigerian census indicating that the population is much smaller than had been estimated, increases in U.S. projections for the year 2050, and the Chinese paradox involving a rapid decline in fertility as the population continues to grow too fast. The implications of these surprises for future projections are assessed.

  14. Surprising Connections between Partitions and Divisors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osler, Thomas J.; Hassen, Abdulkadir; Chandrupatla, Tirupathi R.

    2007-01-01

    The sum of the divisors of a positive integer is one of the most interesting concepts in multiplicative number theory, while the number of ways of expressing a number as a sum is a primary topic in additive number theory. In this article, we describe some of the surprising connections between and similarities of these two concepts.

  15. The Surprising Persistence of Biglan's Classification Scheme

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    Within higher education systems, different institutions deliver different patterns of disciplines. A simple analysis of the structure of that pattern of disciplines across institutions in one higher education system uncovers a surprising relationship. That is, the key dimensions which describe that structure align nearly perfectly with dimensions…

  16. Expect Surprises with 1-to-1 Laptops

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tusch, Erich G.

    2012-01-01

    The prospect of radically changing teaching and learning by issuing a laptop computer to every student and teacher is an exciting one, but it carried big risks and would take time and thorough planning to execute well. But even thorough planning can't prevent the unanticipated. In this article, the author counts six major surprises during his time…

  17. Some Surprising Errors in Numerical Differentiation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2012-01-01

    Data analysis methods, both numerical and visual, are used to discover a variety of surprising patterns in the errors associated with successive approximations to the derivatives of sinusoidal and exponential functions based on the Newton difference-quotient. L'Hopital's rule and Taylor polynomial approximations are then used to explain why these…

  18. An Ordinary but Surprisingly Powerful Theorem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sultan, Alan

    2009-01-01

    Being a mathematician, the author started to wonder if there are any theorems in mathematics that seem very ordinary on the outside, but when applied, have surprisingly far reaching consequences. The author thought about this and came up with the following unlikely candidate which follows immediately from the definition of the area of a rectangle…

  19. Surprising Connections between Partitions and Divisors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osler, Thomas J.; Hassen, Abdulkadir; Chandrupatla, Tirupathi R.

    2007-01-01

    The sum of the divisors of a positive integer is one of the most interesting concepts in multiplicative number theory, while the number of ways of expressing a number as a sum is a primary topic in additive number theory. In this article, we describe some of the surprising connections between and similarities of these two concepts.

  20. Some Surprising Errors in Numerical Differentiation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2012-01-01

    Data analysis methods, both numerical and visual, are used to discover a variety of surprising patterns in the errors associated with successive approximations to the derivatives of sinusoidal and exponential functions based on the Newton difference-quotient. L'Hopital's rule and Taylor polynomial approximations are then used to explain why these…

  1. Building classifiers using Bayesian networks

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, N.; Goldszmidt, M.

    1996-12-31

    Recent work in supervised learning has shown that a surprisingly simple Bayesian classifier with strong assumptions of independence among features, called naive Bayes, is competitive with state of the art classifiers such as C4.5. This fact raises the question of whether a classifier with less restrictive assumptions can perform even better. In this paper we examine and evaluate approaches for inducing classifiers from data, based on recent results in the theory of learning Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks are factored representations of probability distributions that generalize the naive Bayes classifier and explicitly represent statements about independence. Among these approaches we single out a method we call Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN), which outperforms naive Bayes, yet at the same time maintains the computational simplicity (no search involved) and robustness which are characteristic of naive Bayes. We experimentally tested these approaches using benchmark problems from the U. C. Irvine repository, and compared them against C4.5, naive Bayes, and wrapper-based feature selection methods.

  2. Bayesian superresolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isakson, Steve Wesley

    2001-12-01

    Well-known principles of physics explain why resolution restrictions occur in images produced by optical diffraction-limited systems. The limitations involved are present in all diffraction-limited imaging systems, including acoustical and microwave. In most circumstances, however, prior knowledge about the object and the imaging system can lead to resolution improvements. In this dissertation I outline a method to incorporate prior information into the process of reconstructing images to superresolve the object beyond the above limitations. This dissertation research develops the details of this methodology. The approach can provide the most-probable global solution employing a finite number of steps in both far-field and near-field images. In addition, in order to overcome the effects of noise present in any imaging system, this technique provides a weighted image that quantifies the likelihood of various imaging solutions. By utilizing Bayesian probability, the procedure is capable of incorporating prior information about both the object and the noise to overcome the resolution limitation present in many imaging systems. Finally I will present an imaging system capable of detecting the evanescent waves missing from far-field systems, thus improving the resolution further.

  3. Radar Design to Protect Against Surprise

    SciTech Connect

    Doerry, Armin W.

    2015-02-01

    Technological and doctrinal surprise is about rendering preparations for conflict as irrelevant or ineffective . For a sensor, this means essentially rendering the sensor as irrelevant or ineffective in its ability to help determine truth. Recovery from this sort of surprise is facilitated by flexibility in our own technology and doctrine. For a sensor, this mean s flexibility in its architecture, design, tactics, and the designing organizations ' processes. - 4 - Acknowledgements This report is the result of a n unfunded research and development activity . Sandia National Laboratories is a multi - program laboratory manage d and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE - AC04 - 94AL85000.

  4. SurpriseMe: an integrated tool for network community structure characterization using Surprise maximization.

    PubMed

    Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Marín, Ignacio

    2014-04-01

    Detecting communities and densely connected groups may contribute to unravel the underlying relationships among the units present in diverse biological networks (e.g. interactomes, coexpression networks, ecological networks). We recently showed that communities can be precisely characterized by maximizing Surprise, a global network parameter. Here, we present SurpriseMe, a tool that integrates the outputs of seven of the best algorithms available to estimate the maximum Surprise value. SurpriseMe also generates distance matrices that allow visualizing the relationships among the solutions generated by the algorithms. We show that the communities present in small- and medium-sized networks, with up to 10 000 nodes, can be easily characterized: on standard PC computers, these analyses take less than an hour. Also, four of the algorithms may rapidly analyze networks with up to 100 000 nodes, given enough memory resources. Because of its performance and simplicity, SurpriseMe is a reference tool for community structure characterization. SurpriseMe is implemented in Perl and C/C++. It compiles and runs on any UNIX-based operating system, including Linux and Mac OS/X, using standard libraries. The source code is freely and publicly available under the GPL 3.0 license at http://github.com/raldecoa/SurpriseMe/releases.

  5. Mirativity as Surprise: Evidentiality, Information, and Deixis.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Tyler

    2016-12-01

    The goal of this paper is to investigate the linguistic, psychological and cognitive properties of utterances that express the surprise of the speaker, with a focus on how grammatical evidentials are used for this purpose. This is often labeled in the linguistics literature as mirativity. While there has been a flurry of recent interest in mirativity, we still lack an understanding of how and why evidentials are used this way, and an explanation of this effect. In this paper I take steps to filling this gap by showing how the mirativity associated with grammatical evidentials is one of the many linguistic reflexes of the more general cognitive process of surprise. I approach this by analyzing mirativity, and the language of surprise more generally, in a schema-theoretic framework enriched with the notion of new environmental information. I elaborate on the field methodological issues involved with testing the mirative use of an evidential and why they are used this way by connecting mirative evidentials to the broader phenomenon of deixis.

  6. Bayesian Confirmation and Interpretation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellett, Frederick S., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    The author briefly characterizes two ways to confirm the empirical part of educational theories: the hypothetico-deductive method and the Bayesian method. It is argued that the Bayesian approach can be justified. (JMK)

  7. Bayesian Confirmation and Interpretation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellett, Frederick S., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    The author briefly characterizes two ways to confirm the empirical part of educational theories: the hypothetico-deductive method and the Bayesian method. It is argued that the Bayesian approach can be justified. (JMK)

  8. Previously seen and expected stimuli elicit surprise in the context of visual search.

    PubMed

    Retell, James D; Becker, Stefanie I; Remington, Roger W

    2016-04-01

    In the context of visual search, surprise is the phenomenon by which a previously unseen and unexpected stimulus exogenously attracts spatial attention. Capture by such a stimulus occurs, by definition, independent of task goals and is thought to be dependent on the extent to which the stimulus deviates from expectations. However, the relative contributions of prior-exposure and explicit knowledge of an unexpected event to the surprise response have not yet been systematically investigated. Here observers searched for a specific color while ignoring irrelevant cues of different colors presented prior to the target display. After a brief familiarization period, we presented an irrelevant motion cue to elicit surprise. Across conditions we varied prior exposure to the motion stimulus - seen versus unseen - and top-down expectations of occurrence - expected versus unexpected - to assess the extent to which each of these factors contributes to surprise. We found no attenuation of the surprise response when observers were pre-exposed to the motion cue and or had explicit knowledge of its occurrence. Our results show that it is neither sufficient nor necessary that a stimulus be new and unannounced to elicit surprise and suggest that the expectations that determine the surprise response are highly context specific.

  9. Attractiveness and School Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salvia, John; And Others

    1977-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to ascertain the relationship between rated attractiveness and two measures of school performance. Attractive children received significantly higher report cards and, to some degree, higher achievement test scores than their unattractive peers. (Author)

  10. Pupil size tracks perceptual content and surprise.

    PubMed

    Kloosterman, Niels A; Meindertsma, Thomas; van Loon, Anouk M; Lamme, Victor A F; Bonneh, Yoram S; Donner, Tobias H

    2015-04-01

    Changes in pupil size at constant light levels reflect the activity of neuromodulatory brainstem centers that control global brain state. These endogenously driven pupil dynamics can be synchronized with cognitive acts. For example, the pupil dilates during the spontaneous switches of perception of a constant sensory input in bistable perceptual illusions. It is unknown whether this pupil dilation only indicates the occurrence of perceptual switches, or also their content. Here, we measured pupil diameter in human subjects reporting the subjective disappearance and re-appearance of a physically constant visual target surrounded by a moving pattern ('motion-induced blindness' illusion). We show that the pupil dilates during the perceptual switches in the illusion and a stimulus-evoked 'replay' of that illusion. Critically, the switch-related pupil dilation encodes perceptual content, with larger amplitude for disappearance than re-appearance. This difference in pupil response amplitude enables prediction of the type of report (disappearance vs. re-appearance) on individual switches (receiver-operating characteristic: 61%). The amplitude difference is independent of the relative durations of target-visible and target-invisible intervals and subjects' overt behavioral report of the perceptual switches. Further, we show that pupil dilation during the replay also scales with the level of surprise about the timing of switches, but there is no evidence for an interaction between the effects of surprise and perceptual content on the pupil response. Taken together, our results suggest that pupil-linked brain systems track both the content of, and surprise about, perceptual events.

  11. Surprises from an unusual CLC homolog.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Sabrina; Brammer, Ashley E; Rodriguez, Luis; Lim, Hyun-Ho; Stary-Weinzinger, Anna; Matulef, Kimberly

    2012-11-07

    The chloride channel (CLC) family is distinctive in that some members are Cl(-) ion channels and others are Cl(-)/H(+) antiporters. The molecular mechanism that couples H(+) and Cl(-) transport in the antiporters remains unknown. Our characterization of a novel bacterial homolog from Citrobacter koseri, CLC-ck2, has yielded surprising discoveries about the requirements for both Cl(-) and H(+) transport in CLC proteins. First, even though CLC-ck2 lacks conserved amino acids near the Cl(-)-binding sites that are part of the CLC selectivity signature sequence, this protein catalyzes Cl(-) transport, albeit slowly. Ion selectivity in CLC-ck2 is similar to that in CLC-ec1, except that SO(4)(2-) strongly competes with Cl(-) uptake through CLC-ck2 but has no effect on CLC-ec1. Second, and even more surprisingly, CLC-ck2 is a Cl(-)/H(+) antiporter, even though it contains an isoleucine at the Glu(in) position that was previously thought to be a critical part of the H(+) pathway. CLC-ck2 is the first known antiporter that contains a nonpolar residue at this position. Introduction of a glutamate at the Glu(in) site in CLC-ck2 does not increase H(+) flux. Like other CLC antiporters, mutation of the external glutamate gate (Glu(ex)) in CLC-ck2 prevents H(+) flux. Hence, Glu(ex), but not Glu(in), is critical for H(+) permeation in CLC proteins.

  12. The alkali metals: 200 years of surprises.

    PubMed

    Dye, James L

    2015-03-13

    Alkali metal compounds have been known since antiquity. In 1807, Sir Humphry Davy surprised everyone by electrolytically preparing (and naming) potassium and sodium metals. In 1808, he noted their interaction with ammonia, which, 100 years later, was attributed to solvated electrons. After 1960, pulse radiolysis of nearly any solvent produced solvated electrons, which became one of the most studied species in chemistry. In 1968, alkali metal solutions in amines and ethers were shown to contain alkali metal anions in addition to solvated electrons. The advent of crown ethers and cryptands as complexants for alkali cations greatly enhanced alkali metal solubilities. This permitted us to prepare a crystalline salt of Na(-) in 1974, followed by 30 other alkalides with Na(-), K(-), Rb(-) and Cs(-) anions. This firmly established the -1 oxidation state of alkali metals. The synthesis of alkalides led to the crystallization of electrides, with trapped electrons as the anions. Electrides have a variety of electronic and magnetic properties, depending on the geometries and connectivities of the trapping sites. In 2009, the final surprise was the experimental demonstration that alkali metals under high pressure lose their metallic character as the electrons are localized in voids between the alkali cations to become high-pressure electrides! © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  13. Deciphering Network Community Structure by Surprise

    PubMed Central

    Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Marín, Ignacio

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of complex networks permeates all sciences, from biology to sociology. A fundamental, unsolved problem is how to characterize the community structure of a network. Here, using both standard and novel benchmarks, we show that maximization of a simple global parameter, which we call Surprise (S), leads to a very efficient characterization of the community structure of complex synthetic networks. Particularly, S qualitatively outperforms the most commonly used criterion to define communities, Newman and Girvan's modularity (Q). Applying S maximization to real networks often provides natural, well-supported partitions, but also sometimes counterintuitive solutions that expose the limitations of our previous knowledge. These results indicate that it is possible to define an effective global criterion for community structure and open new routes for the understanding of complex networks. PMID:21909420

  14. Superannuation retirement balances: a surprising outcome.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Michael Brian

    2014-12-01

    Although the guaranteed superannuation system is believed by many to provide a safe and adequate source of funds in retirement, some will be unpleasantly surprised. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the significant effect of the economic cycle on the final accumulated balance in superannuation retirement accounts. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to illustrate the variance in outcomes that can be expected for a hypothetical individual. The expected accumulated superannuation balances for two hypothetical individuals are estimated. The spread of outcomes is used to illustrate the problem of using only the mean of the distribution as a predictor of wealth in the retirement years. Many retirees rely on superannuation to fund their retirement. However regular contributions to superannuation does not ensure a predictable outcome, and active management of contributions is required if retirement goals are to be met. © 2013 ACOTA.

  15. Surprises and mysteries in urban soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groffman, P. M.

    2015-12-01

    In the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, one of two urban long-term ecological research (LTER) projects funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, we are using "the watershed approach" to integrate ecological, physical and social sciences. Urban and suburban watershed input/output budgets for nitrogen have shown surprisingly high retention which has led to detailed analysis of sources and sinks in soils these watersheds. Home lawns, thought to be major sources of reactive nitrogen in suburban watersheds, have more complex coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics than previously thought, and are likely the site of much nitrogen retention. Riparian zones, thought to be an important sink for reactive nitrogen in many watersheds, have turned out be nitrogen sources in urban watersheds due to hydrologic changes that disconnect streams from their surrounding landscape. Urban effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and nitrogen deposition have strong effects on soil nitrogen cycling processes and soil:atmosphere fluxes of nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane. Efforts to manage urban soils and watersheds through geomorphic stream restoration, creation of stormwater management features and changes in lawn and forest management can have significant effects on watershed carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Urban soils present a basic and applied science frontier that challenges our understanding of biological, physical, chemical and social science processes. The watershed approach provides an effective platform for integrating these disciplines and for articulating critical questions that arise from surprising results. This approach can help us to meet the challenge of urban soils, which is critical to achieving sustainability goals in cities across the world.

  16. [Sexual attraction: its dimensionality].

    PubMed

    Fernández, Juan; Quiroga, María Angeles; Rodríguez, Antonio

    2006-08-01

    The purpose of this research was to develop a new Sexual Attraction Questionnaire (SAQ) [Cuestionario de Atracción Sexual, CAS]. The goal was to determine whether sexual attraction could be represented as two different clusters (Attraction to men and Attraction to women), which would imply two negatively correlated factors or a bipolar one. Three studies were carried out with 182, 118, and 425 participants, respectively. Cluster and exploratory factor analyses were performed. The results obtained show satisfactory psychometric properties for the SAQ, the two clusters, and the two predicted negatively related factors or the bipolar factor. Results are discussed in the context of the different conceptions of sexual attraction and the fourfold typology: attracted to both sexes, to men, to women, or to neither sex.

  17. Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David

    2009-12-01

    Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.

  18. Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David

    2014-02-01

    Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.

  19. Bayesian theories of conditioning in a changing world.

    PubMed

    Courville, Aaron C; Daw, Nathaniel D; Touretzky, David S

    2006-07-01

    The recent flowering of Bayesian approaches invites the re-examination of classic issues in behavior, even in areas as venerable as Pavlovian conditioning. A statistical account can offer a new, principled interpretation of behavior, and previous experiments and theories can inform many unexplored aspects of the Bayesian enterprise. Here we consider one such issue: the finding that surprising events provoke animals to learn faster. We suggest that, in a statistical account of conditioning, surprise signals change and therefore uncertainty and the need for new learning. We discuss inference in a world that changes and show how experimental results involving surprise can be interpreted from this perspective, and also how, thus understood, these phenomena help constrain statistical theories of animal and human learning.

  20. The conceptualization model problem—surprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bredehoeft, John

    2005-03-01

    The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait

  1. Inter-DNA Attraction Mediated by Divalent Counterions

    SciTech Connect

    Qiu Xiangyun; Andresen, Kurt; Kwok, Lisa W.; Lamb, Jessica S.; Park, Hye Yoon; Pollack, Lois

    2007-07-20

    Can nonspecifically bound divalent counterions induce attraction between DNA strands? Here, we present experimental evidence demonstrating attraction between short DNA strands mediated by Mg{sup 2+} ions. Solution small angle x-ray scattering data collected as a function of DNA concentration enable model independent extraction of the second virial coefficient. As the [Mg{sup 2+}] increases, this coefficient turns from positive to negative reflecting the transition from repulsive to attractive inter-DNA interaction. This surprising observation is corroborated by independent light scattering experiments. The dependence of the observed attraction on experimental parameters including DNA length provides valuable clues to its origin.

  2. Intelligence and Physical Attractiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanazawa, Satoshi

    2011-01-01

    This brief research note aims to estimate the magnitude of the association between general intelligence and physical attractiveness with large nationally representative samples from two nations. In the United Kingdom, attractive children are more intelligent by 12.4 IQ points (r=0.381), whereas in the United States, the correlation between…

  3. An Active Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Joseph C.; Buzzelli, Cary

    1992-01-01

    Describes a unit on magnetism that utilizes hands-on activities in which students make hypotheses for discrepant behavior, discover whether a magnet attracts one object through another, measure the strength of magnets, explore levitating paper clips, and play a game dependent on magnetic attraction. (MDH)

  4. Intelligence and Physical Attractiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanazawa, Satoshi

    2011-01-01

    This brief research note aims to estimate the magnitude of the association between general intelligence and physical attractiveness with large nationally representative samples from two nations. In the United Kingdom, attractive children are more intelligent by 12.4 IQ points (r=0.381), whereas in the United States, the correlation between…

  5. American Cockroach Sex Attractant.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, M; Beroza, M

    1965-02-12

    The structure (2,2-dimethyl-3-isopropylidenecyclopropyl propionate) previously assigned to the sex attractant of the American cockroach has now been shown by additional physical and chemical data and biological inactivity of the synthetic preparation to be incorrect. The structure of this attractant remains to be determined.

  6. Assertiveness and Physical Attractiveness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kleim, David M.; And Others

    Earlier research investigating the relationship between physical attractiveness and assertiveness found that physically attractive females were more assertive than other females. To investigate this relationship further and to broaden the scope of the study, 69 students were videotaped in groups of five to ten while responding to open-ended…

  7. Surprises from Saturn: Implications for Other Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coates, A. J.

    2014-05-01

    The exploration of Saturn by Cassini has provided many surprises regarding: Saturn's rapidly rotating magnetosphere, interactions with its diverse moons, and interactions with the solar wind. Enceladus, orbiting at 4 Saturn radii (RS), was found to have plumes of water vapour and ice which are the dominant source for the inner magnetosphere. Charged water clusters, charged dust and photoelectrons provide key populations in the 'dusty plasma' observed. Direct pickup is seen near Enceladus and field-aligned currents create a spot in Saturn's aurora. At Titan, orbiting at 20 RS, unexpected heavy negative and positive ions are seen in the ionosphere, which provide the source for Titan's haze. Ionospheric plasma is seen in Titan's tail, enabling ion escape to be estimated at 7 tonnes per day. Saturn's ring ionosphere was seen early in the mission and a return will be made in 2017. In addition, highly accelerated electrons are seen at Saturn's high Mach number (MA˜100) quasi-parallel bow shock. Here we review some of these key new results, and discuss the implications for other solar system objects.

  8. [Appendix vermiformis duplex--a rare surprise].

    PubMed

    Sobhian, Babak; Mostegel, Margit; Kunc, Claudia; Karner, Josef

    2005-07-01

    Duplication of the vermiform appendix is extremely rare. It is found in only 1/25.000 patients (0.004%) operated on for acute appendicitis. A 60-year-old male patient was hospitalized for a peridiverticular sigmoid abscess without signs of a free abdominal perforation and an abscess cavity in the small pelvis. A Hartmann's resection and an appendectomy (the vermiform appendix was part of the abscess wall) were performed. The pathology report described an external appendicitis. After 3 months, the intestine was successfully reanastomosed. During mobilisation of the coecum, a second retrocoecal vermiform appendix was surprisingly found. Because of signs of a chronic appendicitis a second resection was performed. Although the diagnosis of an appendix duplex is a rarity, surgeons should be aware of the possibility, especially when clinical signs and symptoms point to appendicitis, although at laparotomy the appendix looks normal. A routine exploration for a second appendix is definitely not indicated because of the rarity and the increased complication rate.

  9. ISS GN and C - First Year Surprises

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Begley, Michael

    2002-01-01

    Assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) began in late 1998 with the joining of the first two US and Russ ian elements. For more than two years, the outpost was served by two Russian Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) systems. The station requires orbital translation and attitude control functions for its 100+ configurations, from the nascent two-module station to the half million kilogram completed station owned and operated by seventeen nations. With the launch of the US Laboratory module in February 2001, the integration of the US GN&C system with its Russian counterpart laid the foundation for such a robust system. In its first year of combined operation, the ISS GN&C system has performed admirably, even better than many expected, but there have been surprises. Loss of command capability, loss of communication between segments, a control system force-fight, and "non-propulsive vents" that weren't - such events have repeatedly underscored the importance of thorough program integration, testing, and operation, both across subsystem boundaries and across international borders.

  10. Surprising characteristics of visual systems of invertebrates.

    PubMed

    González-Martín-Moro, J; Hernández-Verdejo, J L; Jiménez-Gahete, A E

    2017-01-01

    To communicate relevant and striking aspects about the visual system of some close invertebrates. Review of the related literature. The capacity of snails to regenerate a complete eye, the benefit of the oval shape of the compound eye of many flying insects as a way of stabilising the image during flight, the potential advantages related to the extreme refractive error that characterises the ocelli of many insects, as well as the ability to detect polarised light as a navigation system, are some of the surprising capabilities present in the small invertebrate eyes that are described in this work. The invertebrate eyes have capabilities and sensorial modalities that are not present in the human eye. The study of the eyes of these animals can help us to improve our understanding of our visual system, and inspire the development of optical devices. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. A Surprising New Take on Scaling Laws

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martens, Petrus C.

    2006-06-01

    I have derived analytical solutions for the 1D energy equation for static solar coronal loops for a set of heating functions parametrized as power-laws. This formalism yields a large set of solutions including loops that are mainly heated at the footpoints, at the looptop, and uniformly. I found that the analytical solutions are indistinguishable from numerical solutions produced the MSU 1D hydro-code.I also find that there is very little difference between the temperature profiles for these very different heating functions. A surprising result is though that the constant of proportionality in the classic RTV scaling law (PL T^3) depends strongly on the heating function used, yielding a potential diagnostic for the type of heating function at work in the solar corona -- assuming most loops have the same heating profile. Loops heated at the base have a large constant of proportionality, leading to overdense loops compared to the case of uniform heating, and v.v. for loops heated at the top -- an effect that had already been noticed in numerical solutions but has been inaccurately been interpreted as a violation of the scaling law.This work is supported by NASA Grant NAS5-38099 for the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer, and NNG04EA00C for the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly through subcontracts with Lockheed-Martin Solar and Astrophysics Lab.

  12. Mining for Surprise Events within Text Streams

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; Engel, David W.; Cramer, Nicholas O.

    2009-04-30

    This paper summarizes algorithms and analysis methodology for mining the evolving content in text streams. Text streams include news, press releases from organizations, speeches, Internet blogs, etc. These data are a fundamental source for detecting and characterizing strategic intent of individuals and organizations as well as for detecting abrupt or surprising events within communities. Specifically, an analyst may need to know if and when the topic within a text stream changes. Much of the current text feature methodology is focused on understanding and analyzing a single static collection of text documents. Corresponding analytic activities include summarizing the contents of the collection, grouping the documents based on similarity of content, and calculating concise summaries of the resulting groups. The approach reported here focuses on taking advantage of the temporal characteristics in a text stream to identify relevant features (such as change in content), and also on the analysis and algorithmic methodology to communicate these characteristics to a user. We present a variety of algorithms for detecting essential features within a text stream. A critical finding is that the characteristics used to identify features in a text stream are uncorrelated with the characteristics used to identify features in a static document collection. Our approach for communicating the information back to the user is to identify feature (word/phrase) groups. These resulting algorithms form the basis of developing software tools for a user to analyze and understand the content of text streams. We present analysis using both news information and abstracts from technical articles, and show how these algorithms provide understanding of the contents of these text streams.

  13. Charon Surprising Youthful and Varied Terrain

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2015-07-15

    Remarkable new details of Pluto's largest moon Charon are revealed in this image from New Horizons' Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI), taken late on July 13, 2015 from a distance of 289,000 miles (466,000 kilometers). A swath of cliffs and troughs stretches about 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) from left to right, suggesting widespread fracturing of Charon's crust, likely a result of internal processes. At upper right, along the moon's curving edge, is a canyon estimated to be 4 to 6 miles (7 to 9 kilometers) deep. Mission scientists are surprised by the apparent lack of craters on Charon. South of the moon's equator, at the bottom of this image, terrain is lit by the slanting rays of the sun, creating shadows that make it easier to distinguish topography. Even here, however, relatively few craters are visible, indicating a relatively young surface that has been reshaped by geologic activity. In Charon's north polar region, a dark marking prominent in New Horizons' approach images is now seen to have a diffuse boundary, suggesting it is a thin deposit of dark material. Underlying it is a distinct, sharply bounded, angular feature; higher resolution images still to come are expected to shed more light on this enigmatic region. The image has been compressed to reduce its file size for transmission to Earth. In high-contrast areas of the image, features as small as 3 miles (5 kilometers) across can be seen. Some lower-contrast detail is obscured by the compression of the image, which may make some areas appear smoother than they really are. The uncompressed version still resides in New Horizons' computer memory and is scheduled to be transmitted at a later date. The image has been combined with color information obtained by New Horizons' Ralph instrument on July 13. New Horizons traveled more than three billion miles over nine-and-a-half years to reach the Pluto system. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19709

  14. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  15. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  16. Ranking facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Knight, Helen; Keith, Olly

    2005-08-01

    The first aim of this investigation was to assemble a group of photographs of 30 male and 30 female faces representing a standardized spectrum of facial attractiveness, against which orthognathic treatment outcomes could be compared. The second aim was to investigate the influence of the relationship between ANB differences and anterior lower face height (ALFH) percentages on facial attractiveness. The initial sample comprised standardized photographs of 41 female and 35 male Caucasian subjects. From these, the photographs of two groups of 30 male and 30 female subjects were compiled. A panel of six clinicians and six non-clinicians ranked the photographs. The results showed there to be a good level of reliability for each assessor when ranking the photographs on two occasions, particularly for the clinicians (female subjects r = 0.76-0.97, male subjects r = 0.72-0.94). Agreement among individuals within each group was also high, particularly when ranking facial attractiveness in male subjects (female subjects r = 0.57-0.84, male subjects r = 0.91-0.94). Antero-posterior (AP) discrepancies, as measured by soft tissue ANB, showed minimal correlation with facial attractiveness. However, a trend emerged that would suggest that in faces where the ANB varies widely from 5 degrees, the face is considered less attractive. The ALFH percentage also showed minimal correlation with facial attractiveness. However, there was a trend that suggested that greater ALFH percentages are considered less attractive in female faces, while in males the opposite trend was seen. Either of the two series of ranked photographs as judged by clinicians and non-clinicians could be used as a standard against which facial attractiveness could be assessed, as both were in total agreement about the most attractive faces. However, to judge the outcome of orthognathic treatment, the series of ranked photographs produced by the non-clinician group should be used as the 'standard' to reflect lay

  17. Surprise as an Interactional Achievement: Reaction Tokens in Conversation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilkinson, Sue; Kitzinger, Celia

    2006-01-01

    The expression of surprise--at something unexpected--is a key form of emotional display. Focusing on displays of surprise performed by means of reaction tokens (akin to Goffman's "response cries"), such as "wow, gosh, oh my god, ooh!, phew," we use an ethnomethodological, conversation-analytic approach to analyze surprise in talk-in-interaction.…

  18. Surprise as an Interactional Achievement: Reaction Tokens in Conversation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilkinson, Sue; Kitzinger, Celia

    2006-01-01

    The expression of surprise--at something unexpected--is a key form of emotional display. Focusing on displays of surprise performed by means of reaction tokens (akin to Goffman's "response cries"), such as "wow, gosh, oh my god, ooh!, phew," we use an ethnomethodological, conversation-analytic approach to analyze surprise in talk-in-interaction.…

  19. Bayesian Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  20. Bayesian Brains without Probabilities.

    PubMed

    Sanborn, Adam N; Chater, Nick

    2016-12-01

    Bayesian explanations have swept through cognitive science over the past two decades, from intuitive physics and causal learning, to perception, motor control and language. Yet people flounder with even the simplest probability questions. What explains this apparent paradox? How can a supposedly Bayesian brain reason so poorly with probabilities? In this paper, we propose a direct and perhaps unexpected answer: that Bayesian brains need not represent or calculate probabilities at all and are, indeed, poorly adapted to do so. Instead, the brain is a Bayesian sampler. Only with infinite samples does a Bayesian sampler conform to the laws of probability; with finite samples it systematically generates classic probabilistic reasoning errors, including the unpacking effect, base-rate neglect, and the conjunction fallacy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

  2. Attracting Water Drops

    NASA Image and Video Library

    Astronauts Cady Coleman and Ron Garan perform the Attracting Water Drops experiment from Chabad Hebrew Academy in San Diego, Calif. This research determines if a free-floating water drop can be att...

  3. Adolescent attraction to cults.

    PubMed

    Hunter, E

    1998-01-01

    This article details the reasons behind adolescents' attraction to cults. It is recommended that parents, teachers, and counselors familiarize themselves with the warning signs. Suggestions are offered on how to make adolescents less vulnerable to cult overtures.

  4. Attention Alters Perceived Attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Störmer, Viola S; Alvarez, George A

    2016-04-01

    Can attention alter the impression of a face? Previous studies showed that attention modulates the appearance of lower-level visual features. For instance, attention can make a simple stimulus appear to have higher contrast than it actually does. We tested whether attention can also alter the perception of a higher-order property-namely, facial attractiveness. We asked participants to judge the relative attractiveness of two faces after summoning their attention to one of the faces using a briefly presented visual cue. Across trials, participants judged the attended face to be more attractive than the same face when it was unattended. This effect was not due to decision or response biases, but rather was due to changes in perceptual processing of the faces. These results show that attention alters perceived facial attractiveness, and broadly demonstrate that attention can influence higher-level perception and may affect people's initial impressions of one another.

  5. Physical Attractiveness and Courtship

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silverman, Irwin

    1971-01-01

    This study shows a high and disquieting degree of similarity in physical attractiveness between dating partners, and suggests also that more similar partners tend to form stronger romantic attachments. (Author)

  6. A Shocking Surprise in Stephan's Quintet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    surprised not only by the turbulence of the gas, but by the incredible strength of the emission. The reason the molecular hydrogen emission is so powerful is not yet completely understood.

    Stephan's Quintet is located 300 million light-years away in the Pegasus constellation.

    This image is composed of three data sets: near-infrared light (blue) and visible light called H-alpha (green) from the Calar Alto Observatory in Spain, operated by the Max Planck Institute in Germany; and 8-micron infrared light (red) from Spitzer's infrared array camera.

  7. A Shocking Surprise in Stephan's Quintet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    surprised not only by the turbulence of the gas, but by the incredible strength of the emission. The reason the molecular hydrogen emission is so powerful is not yet completely understood.

    Stephan's Quintet is located 300 million light-years away in the Pegasus constellation.

    This image is composed of three data sets: near-infrared light (blue) and visible light called H-alpha (green) from the Calar Alto Observatory in Spain, operated by the Max Planck Institute in Germany; and 8-micron infrared light (red) from Spitzer's infrared array camera.

  8. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Taltavull, Daniel; Ramachandran, Parameswaran; Lau, Nelson; Perkins, Theodore J

    2016-01-01

    Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

  9. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Nelson; Perkins, Theodore J.

    2016-01-01

    Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities’ measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low—especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities’ signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset. PMID:27701449

  10. Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

  11. Surprise: Dwarf Galaxy Harbors Supermassive Black Hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2011-01-01

    The surprising discovery of a supermassive black hole in a small nearby galaxy has given astronomers a tantalizing look at how black holes and galaxies may have grown in the early history of the Universe. Finding a black hole a million times more massive than the Sun in a star-forming dwarf galaxy is a strong indication that supermassive black holes formed before the buildup of galaxies, the astronomers said. The galaxy, called Henize 2-10, 30 million light-years from Earth, has been studied for years, and is forming stars very rapidly. Irregularly shaped and about 3,000 light-years across (compared to 100,000 for our own Milky Way), it resembles what scientists think were some of the first galaxies to form in the early Universe. "This galaxy gives us important clues about a very early phase of galaxy evolution that has not been observed before," said Amy Reines, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Virginia. Supermassive black holes lie at the cores of all "full-sized" galaxies. In the nearby Universe, there is a direct relationship -- a constant ratio -- between the masses of the black holes and that of the central "bulges" of the galaxies, leading them to conclude that the black holes and bulges affected each others' growth. Two years ago, an international team of astronomers found that black holes in young galaxies in the early Universe were more massive than this ratio would indicate. This, they said, was strong evidence that black holes developed before their surrounding galaxies. "Now, we have found a dwarf galaxy with no bulge at all, yet it has a supermassive black hole. This greatly strengthens the case for the black holes developing first, before the galaxy's bulge is formed," Reines said. Reines, along with Gregory Sivakoff and Kelsey Johnson of the University of Virginia and the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO), and Crystal Brogan of the NRAO, observed Henize 2-10 with the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array radio telescope and

  12. Surprise: Dwarf Galaxy Harbors Supermassive Black Hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2011-01-01

    The surprising discovery of a supermassive black hole in a small nearby galaxy has given astronomers a tantalizing look at how black holes and galaxies may have grown in the early history of the Universe. Finding a black hole a million times more massive than the Sun in a star-forming dwarf galaxy is a strong indication that supermassive black holes formed before the buildup of galaxies, the astronomers said. The galaxy, called Henize 2-10, 30 million light-years from Earth, has been studied for years, and is forming stars very rapidly. Irregularly shaped and about 3,000 light-years across (compared to 100,000 for our own Milky Way), it resembles what scientists think were some of the first galaxies to form in the early Universe. "This galaxy gives us important clues about a very early phase of galaxy evolution that has not been observed before," said Amy Reines, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Virginia. Supermassive black holes lie at the cores of all "full-sized" galaxies. In the nearby Universe, there is a direct relationship -- a constant ratio -- between the masses of the black holes and that of the central "bulges" of the galaxies, leading them to conclude that the black holes and bulges affected each others' growth. Two years ago, an international team of astronomers found that black holes in young galaxies in the early Universe were more massive than this ratio would indicate. This, they said, was strong evidence that black holes developed before their surrounding galaxies. "Now, we have found a dwarf galaxy with no bulge at all, yet it has a supermassive black hole. This greatly strengthens the case for the black holes developing first, before the galaxy's bulge is formed," Reines said. Reines, along with Gregory Sivakoff and Kelsey Johnson of the University of Virginia and the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO), and Crystal Brogan of the NRAO, observed Henize 2-10 with the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array radio telescope and

  13. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    PubMed

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2017-04-12

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  14. Attracting girls to physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borg, Anne; Sui, Manling

    2013-03-01

    Large regional differences remain in the number of girls studying physics and the number of female physicists in academic positions. While many countries struggle with attracting female students to university studies in physics, climbing the academic ladder is the main challenge for these women. Furthermore, for many female physicists the working climate is not very supportive. The workshop Attracting Girls to Physics, organized as part of the 4th IUPAP International Conference on Women in Physics, South Africa 2011, addressed attitudes among education-seeking teenagers and approaches for attracting young girls to physics through successful recruitment plans, including highlighting the broad spectrum of career opportunities for those with physics qualifications. The current paper presents findings, examples of best practices, and recommendations resulting from this workshop.

  15. Oldest Known Objects May Be Surprisingly Immature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2008-04-01

    Some of the oldest objects in the Universe may still have a long way to go, according to a new study using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory. These new results indicate that globular clusters might be surprisingly less mature in their development than previously thought. Globular clusters, dense bunches of up to millions of stars found in all galaxies, are among the oldest known objects in the Universe, with most estimates of their ages ranging from 9 to 13 billions of years old. As such they contain some of the first stars to form in a galaxy and understanding their evolution is critical to understanding the evolution of galaxies. Animation The Evolution of a Globular Cluster "For many years, globular clusters have been used as wonderful natural laboratories to study the evolution and interaction of stars," said John Fregeau of Northwestern University, who conducted the study. "So, it’s exciting to discover something that may be new and fundamental about the way they evolve." Conventional wisdom is that globular clusters pass through three phases of evolution or development of their structure, corresponding to adolescence, middle age, and old age. These "ages" refer to the evolutionary state of the cluster, not the physical ages of the individual stars. People Who Read This Also Read... Milky Way's Super-efficient Particle Accelerators Caught in The Act Discovery of Most Recent Supernova in Our Galaxy Action Replay of Powerful Stellar Explosion Jet Power and Black Hole Assortment Revealed in New Chandra Image In the adolescent phase, the stars near the center of the cluster collapse inward. Middle age refers to a phase when the interactions of double stars near the center of the cluster prevents it from further collapse. Finally, old age describes when binaries in the center of the cluster are disrupted or ejected, and the center of the cluster collapses inwards. For years, it has been thought that most globular clusters are middle- aged with a few being toward

  16. Attracting Girls to Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandow, Barbara; Marks, Ann; Borg, Anne

    2009-04-01

    In most countries the number of girls studying physics, as well female physicists in academic positions, is still low. Active recruitment at all levels is essential to change this situation. In some countries a large proportion of students are female, but career progression is difficult. Highlighting the broad spectrum of career opportunities for those with physics qualifications is a major approach in attracting girls to physics. This paper presents findings, examples of best practices, and recommendations resulting from the workshop, Attracting Girls to Physics, organized as part of the Third IUPAP International Conference on Women in Physics, Seoul, 2008.

  17. Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

    PubMed

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

    2017-07-06

    Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

  18. Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise

    PubMed Central

    Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz

    2015-01-01

    The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for this switch in operating mode. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by surprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low surprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect) and frontalis (cultural surprise expression) activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes. PMID:25762956

  19. The Orion Nebula: Still Full of Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2011-01-01

    shows the glowing hydrogen gas, were coloured red. Light in the yellow-green part of the spectrum is coloured green, blue light is coloured blue and light that passed through an ultraviolet filter has been coloured purple. The exposure times were about 52 minutes through each filter. This image was processed by ESO using the observational data found by Igor Chekalin (Russia) [1], who participated in ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 astrophotography competition [2], organised by ESO in October-November 2010, for everyone who enjoys making beautiful images of the night sky using real astronomical data. Notes [1] Igor searched through ESO's archive and identified datasets that he used to compose his image of Messier 42, which was the seventh highest ranked entry in the competition, out of almost 100 entries. His original work can be seen here. Igor Chekalin was awarded the first prize of the competition for his composition of Messier 78, and he also submitted an image of NGC3169, NGC3166 and SN 2003cg, which was ranked second highest. [2] ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 competition gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search through ESO's vast archives of astronomical data, hoping to find a well-hidden gem that needed polishing by the entrants. Participants submitted nearly 100 entries and ten skilled people were awarded some extremely attractive prizes, including an all expenses paid trip for the overall winner to ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) on Cerro Paranal, in Chile, the world's most advanced optical telescope. The ten winners submitted a total of 20 images that were ranked as the highest entries in the competition out of the near 100 images. More information ESO, the European Southern Observatory, is the foremost intergovernmental astronomy organisation in Europe and the world's most productive astronomical observatory. It is supported by 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal

  20. Correlates of Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prisbell, Marshall

    A study assessed the relationship of the independent variables of interpersonal attraction to the dependent variables of feeling good, relational safety, and uncertainty level. Subjects were 75 elementary and secondary school teachers, 61 communication students, 18 child development professionals, and 8 service club members. Each subject completed…

  1. Science Can Be Attractive.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leyden, Michael B.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses the properties of neodymium magnets and magnets in general and how magnets can be used to teach students important scientific principles, such as attraction, repulsion, and polarity; the role of magnetic forces in electronic communications and computers; the magnetic properties of the earth and compasses; and the relationship between…

  2. Attracting Philosophy Students--1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coole, Walter A., Ed.

    This is the first in a series of occasional papers designed as a vehicle for the collection and dissemination of ideas for increasing philosophy course enrollments in two-year colleges. A project of the Subcommittee on Attracting Philosophy Students of the American Philosophical Association's Committee on Teaching Philosophy in Two-Year Colleges,…

  3. Adolescent Attraction to Cults.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Eagan

    1998-01-01

    Details the reasons behind adolescents' attraction to cults. and distinguishes functions of cults and the term "cult." Identifies various cults, and describes the process of involvement. Notes that in the absence of authentic, stabilizing standards, some youth are especially vulnerable. Provides recommendations for adults working with…

  4. Science Can Be Attractive.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leyden, Michael B.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses the properties of neodymium magnets and magnets in general and how magnets can be used to teach students important scientific principles, such as attraction, repulsion, and polarity; the role of magnetic forces in electronic communications and computers; the magnetic properties of the earth and compasses; and the relationship between…

  5. Bayesian estimation of the shape skeleton.

    PubMed

    Feldman, Jacob; Singh, Manish

    2006-11-21

    Skeletal representations of shape have attracted enormous interest ever since their introduction by Blum [Blum H (1973) J Theor Biol 38:205-287], because of their potential to provide a compact, but meaningful, shape representation, suitable for both neural modeling and computational applications. But effective computation of the shape skeleton remains a notorious unsolved problem; existing approaches are extremely sensitive to noise and give counterintuitive results with simple shapes. In conventional approaches, the skeleton is defined by a geometric construction and computed by a deterministic procedure. We introduce a Bayesian probabilistic approach, in which a shape is assumed to have "grown" from a skeleton by a stochastic generative process. Bayesian estimation is used to identify the skeleton most likely to have produced the shape, i.e., that best "explains" it, called the maximum a posteriori skeleton. Even with natural shapes with substantial contour noise, this approach provides a robust skeletal representation whose branches correspond to the natural parts of the shape.

  6. Marketing to attract women.

    PubMed

    Dearing, R H

    1987-01-01

    Patient care and marketing programs sensitive to women can help Catholic facilities increase maternity care patient volumes. Four factors influence hospitals' ability to attract women. Women today are better educated and more sophisticated than ever before about health care needs, and they have more providers from which to choose. With limited resources, providers must be discriminating in the type of services they deliver and how. Finally, women make most of the health care decisions for the families. To attract women, providers should offer them personalized care, participation in decisions, information about treatment, attractive facilities, convenience, and affordable costs. Many providers believe Catholic facilities fail to attract maternity patients because they do not perform tubal ligations; however, parents generally see childbirth as a separate event from sterilization. Providers also believe that non-Catholic patients will not use their facilities, but today's patients choose a hospital because of what it offers, not sponsorship. Some patients may not choose Catholic facilities because they see them as less progressive, but this image can be corrected through marketing Catholic facilities' common strengths include their focus on care rather than profit, their compassionate, individualized care, the image of women caring for women, and their stability. Catholic facilities have built on their strengths to attract women patients by reinforcing positive perceptions with innovative programs, marketing directly to women, educating physicians in how to respond to women's needs, increasing linkages with all women in the community, ensuring that the mission of care is reflected in the physical plant, using a marketing program to help employees carry out compassionate care, and surveying patients for feedback on how their needs are met.

  7. Dissociating Averageness and Attractiveness: Attractive Faces Are Not Always Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeBruine, Lisa M.; Jones, Benedict C.; Unger, Layla; Little, Anthony C.; Feinberg, David R.

    2007-01-01

    Although the averageness hypothesis of facial attractiveness proposes that the attractiveness of faces is mostly a consequence of their averageness, 1 study has shown that caricaturing highly attractive faces makes them mathematically less average but more attractive. Here the authors systematically test the averageness hypothesis in 5 experiments…

  8. Surprise in Schools: Martin Buber and Dialogic Schooling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stern, Julian

    2013-01-01

    The philosopher Martin Buber described the central role of surprise in education. Surprise is not an alternative to planning and order in schools, and it is not even an alternative to repetitive practice. It is, instead, that which must be allowed to occur in any dialogic encounter. Schooling that is creative and filled with hope will also be…

  9. Surprise and Sense Making: Undergraduate Placement Experiences in SMEs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walmsley, Andreas; Thomas, Rhodri; Jameson, Stephanie

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper seeks to explore undergraduate placement experiences in tourism and hospitality SMEs, focusing on the notions of surprise and sense making. It aims to argue that surprises and sense making are important elements not only of the adjustment process when entering new work environments, but also of the learning experience that…

  10. Surprise in Schools: Martin Buber and Dialogic Schooling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stern, Julian

    2013-01-01

    The philosopher Martin Buber described the central role of surprise in education. Surprise is not an alternative to planning and order in schools, and it is not even an alternative to repetitive practice. It is, instead, that which must be allowed to occur in any dialogic encounter. Schooling that is creative and filled with hope will also be…

  11. Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I: Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications.

    PubMed

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Love, Jonathon; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Matzke, Dora; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

    2017-08-04

    Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing present attractive alternatives to classical inference using confidence intervals and p values. In part I of this series we outline ten prominent advantages of the Bayesian approach. Many of these advantages translate to concrete opportunities for pragmatic researchers. For instance, Bayesian hypothesis testing allows researchers to quantify evidence and monitor its progression as data come in, without needing to know the intention with which the data were collected. We end by countering several objections to Bayesian hypothesis testing. Part II of this series discusses JASP, a free and open source software program that makes it easy to conduct Bayesian estimation and testing for a range of popular statistical scenarios (Wagenmakers et al. this issue).

  12. Antipsychotics and physical attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Seeman, Mary V

    2011-10-01

    Antipsychotics are effective in treating the symptoms of schizophrenia, but they may induce adverse effects, some of which-those that impact negatively on physical appearance-have not been sufficiently discussed in the psychiatric literature. Through a narrative review, to catalog antipsychotic side effects that interfere with physical attractiveness and to suggest ways of addressing them. PubMed databases were searched for information on the association between "antipsychotic side effects" and "attractiveness" using those two search phrases plus the following terms: "weight," "teeth," "skin," "hair," "eyes," "gait," "voice," "odor." Data from relevant qualitative and quantitative articles were considered, contextualized, and summarized. Antipsychotics, as a group, increase weight and may lead to dry mouth and bad breath, cataracts, hirsutism, acne, and voice changes; they may disturb symmetry of gait and heighten the risk for tics and spasms and incontinence, potentially undermining a person's attractiveness. Clinicians need to be aware of the impact of therapeutic drugs on appearance and how important this issue is to patients. Early in treatment, they need to plan preventive and therapeutic strategies.

  13. Bayesian Face Sketch Synthesis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Nannan; Gao, Xinbo; Sun, Leiyu; Li, Jie

    2017-03-01

    Exemplar-based face sketch synthesis has been widely applied to both digital entertainment and law enforcement. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for face sketch synthesis, which provides a systematic interpretation for understanding the common properties and intrinsic difference in different methods from the perspective of probabilistic graphical models. The proposed Bayesian framework consists of two parts: the neighbor selection model and the weight computation model. Within the proposed framework, we further propose a Bayesian face sketch synthesis method. The essential rationale behind the proposed Bayesian method is that we take the spatial neighboring constraint between adjacent image patches into consideration for both aforementioned models, while the state-of-the-art methods neglect the constraint either in the neighbor selection model or in the weight computation model. Extensive experiments on the Chinese University of Hong Kong face sketch database demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian method could achieve superior performance compared with the state-of-the-art methods in terms of both subjective perceptions and objective evaluations.

  14. Bayesian least squares deconvolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asensio Ramos, A.; Petit, P.

    2015-11-01

    Aims: We develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods: We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results: We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.

  15. Bayesian Visual Odometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Center, Julian L.; Knuth, Kevin H.

    2011-03-01

    Visual odometry refers to tracking the motion of a body using an onboard vision system. Practical visual odometry systems combine the complementary accuracy characteristics of vision and inertial measurement units. The Mars Exploration Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, used this type of visual odometry. The visual odometry algorithms in Spirit and Opportunity were based on Bayesian methods, but a number of simplifying approximations were needed to deal with onboard computer limitations. Furthermore, the allowable motion of the rover had to be severely limited so that computations could keep up. Recent advances in computer technology make it feasible to implement a fully Bayesian approach to visual odometry. This approach combines dense stereo vision, dense optical flow, and inertial measurements. As with all true Bayesian methods, it also determines error bars for all estimates. This approach also offers the possibility of using Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) inertial components, which are more economical, weigh less, and consume less power than conventional inertial components.

  16. BIE: Bayesian Inference Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinberg, Martin D.

    2013-12-01

    The Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) is an object-oriented library of tools written in C++ designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. To facilitate "what if" exploration, BIE provides a command line interface (written with Bison and Flex) to run input scripts. The output of the code is a simulation of the Bayesian posterior distribution from which summary statistics e.g. by taking moments, or determine confidence intervals and so forth, can be determined. All of these quantities are fundamentally integrals and the Markov Chain approach produces variates heta distributed according to P( heta|D) so moments are trivially obtained by summing of the ensemble of variates.

  17. Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, D.R.; Lovvorn, James R.; Monson, Daniel H.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, Terrie M.; Wootton, J. Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

  18. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

  19. On surprise, change, and the effect of recent outcomes.

    PubMed

    Nevo, Iris; Erev, Ido

    2012-01-01

    The leading models of human and animal learning rest on the assumption that individuals tend to select the alternatives that led to the best recent outcomes. The current research highlights three boundaries of this "recency" assumption. Analysis of the stock market and simple laboratory experiments suggests that positively surprising obtained payoffs, and negatively surprising forgone payoffs reduce the rate of repeating the previous choice. In addition, all previous trails outcomes, except the latest outcome (most recent), have similar effect on future choices. We show that these results, and other robust properties of decisions from experience, can be captured with a simple addition to the leading models: the assumption that surprise triggers change.

  20. Are Brazil Nuts Attractive?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, Duncan A.; Swift, Michael R.; Bowley, R. M.; King, P. J.

    2004-11-01

    We present event-driven simulation results for single and multiple intruders in a vertically vibrated granular bed. Under our vibratory conditions, the mean vertical position of a single intruder is governed primarily by a buoyancylike effect. Multiple intruders also exhibit buoyancy governed behavior; however, multiple neutrally buoyant intruders cluster spontaneously and undergo horizontal segregation. These effects can be understood by considering the dynamics of two neutrally buoyant intruders. We have measured an attractive force between such intruders which has a range of five intruder diameters, and we provide a mechanistic explanation for the origins of this force.

  1. Biobutanol: an attractive biofuel.

    PubMed

    Dürre, Peter

    2007-12-01

    Biofuels are an attractive means to prevent a further increase of carbon dioxide emissions. Currently, gasoline is blended with ethanol at various percentages. However, butanol has several advantages over ethanol, such as higher energy content, lower water absorption, better blending ability, and use in conventional combustion engines without modification. Like ethanol, it can be produced fermentatively or petrochemically. Current crude oil prices render the biotechnological process economic again. The best-studied bacterium to perform a butanol fermentation is Clostridium acetobutylicum. Its genome has been sequenced, and the regulation of solvent formation is under intensive investigation. This opens the possibility to engineer recombinant strains with superior biobutanol-producing ability.

  2. Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

    PubMed

    Hänninen, Maria

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A structured approach to Bayesian data fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Y. N.; Chen, J.; Hubbard, S.; Kowalsky, M. B.; Woodbury, A.

    2002-12-01

    Stochastic formulations of the inverse problem proved to be a powerful tool for data fusion. Bayesian-based methods are particularly attractive due to their generality and structure. A Bayesian method requires defining a prior pdf for the model parameters and a likelihood function to relate between model parameters and observations. A systematic approach for defining these two functions is needed, which departs from the customary, almost-by-default choice of normal-based models. This talk gives an overview of recent trends in Bayesian model construction. The first part of the talk focuses on identifying a prior using the information-based approach of Woodbury and Ulrych, with an application to the Cape Cod large scale tracer transport field experiment. Here we show how the tracer data can augment direct measurements of the hydraulic conductivity. In the second part, we focus on the likelihood function, and present two different concepts. The first concept defines a non-stationary, multivariate normal likelihood function, and the second employs neural networks and identifies a non-normal likelihood function. Both concepts are employed to fuse geophysical data with conventional well logs.

  4. 'Surprise' Designer Drugs Detected in NYC Hair Samples

    MedlinePlus

    ... 164500.html 'Surprise' Designer Drugs Detected in NYC Hair Samples Stimulant-taking party-goers don't always ... in 2015. For the new study, researchers collected hair samples from 80 young adults outside nightclubs and ...

  5. Bayesian Threshold Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustafson, S. C.; Costello, C. S.; Like, E. C.; Pierce, S. J.; Shenoy, K. N.

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian estimation of a threshold time (hereafter simply threshold) for the receipt of impulse signals is accomplished given the following: 1) data, consisting of the number of impulses received in a time interval from zero to one and the time of the largest time impulse; 2) a model, consisting of a uniform probability density of impulse time…

  6. Bayesian Threshold Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustafson, S. C.; Costello, C. S.; Like, E. C.; Pierce, S. J.; Shenoy, K. N.

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian estimation of a threshold time (hereafter simply threshold) for the receipt of impulse signals is accomplished given the following: 1) data, consisting of the number of impulses received in a time interval from zero to one and the time of the largest time impulse; 2) a model, consisting of a uniform probability density of impulse time…

  7. Spectral Bayesian Knowledge Tracing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falakmasir, Mohammad; Yudelson, Michael; Ritter, Steve; Koedinger, Ken

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) has been in wide use for modeling student skill acquisition in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). BKT tracks and updates student's latent mastery of a skill as a probability distribution of a binary variable. BKT does so by accounting for observed student successes in applying the skill correctly, where success is…

  8. The Bayesian Inventory Problem

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-05-01

    Bayesian Approach to Demand Estimation and Inventory Provisioning," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly. Vol 20, 1973, (p607-624). 4 DeGroot , Morris H...page is blank APPENDIX A SUFFICIENT STATISTICS A convenient reference for moat of this material is DeGroot (41. Su-pose that we are sampling from a

  9. Adult age differences in the interpretation of surprised facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Shuster, Michael M; Mikels, Joseph A; Camras, Linda A

    2017-03-01

    Research on adult age differences in the interpretation of facial expressions has yet to examine evaluations of surprised faces, which signal that an unexpected and ambiguous event has occurred in the expresser's environment. The present study examined whether older and younger adults differed in their interpretations of the affective valence of surprised faces. Specifically, we examined older and younger participants' evaluations of happy, angry, and surprised facial expressions. We predicted that, on the basis of age-related changes in the processing of emotional information, older adults would evaluate surprised faces more positively than would younger adults. The results indicated that older adults interpreted surprised faces more positively than did their younger counterparts. These findings reveal a novel age-related positivity effect in the interpretation of surprised faces, suggesting that older adults imbue ambiguous facial expressions-that is, expressions that lack either positive or negative facial actions-with positive meaning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Communication and Culture: Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Lydia Ledesma; Emry, Robert A.

    Cultural differences in interpersonal attraction were studied using 93 black, 112 Chicano, and 112 white college students who completed 40 Likert-type rating scales for each of four concepts of attraction (intimate, friendship, acquaintance, and stranger attraction). When a factor solution was generated, differences were noted in the amount of…

  11. Perceived Attractiveness and Classroom Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algozzine, Bob

    1977-01-01

    Adams and Cohen (1974) demonstrated that facial attractiveness was a salient factor in differential student-teacher interactions. This research investigates further the interaction between teachers and children perceived to be attractive or unattractive by those teachers. It was hypothesized that attractive children would exhibit more "positive,"…

  12. Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Brandon M.; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2013-01-01

    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful technique for estimating the posterior distribution of a model’s parameters. It is especially important when the model to be fit has no explicit likelihood function, which happens for computational (or simulation-based) models such as those that are popular in cognitive neuroscience and other areas in psychology. However, ABC is usually applied only to models with few parameters. Extending ABC to hierarchical models has been difficult because high-dimensional hierarchical models add computational complexity that conventional ABC cannot accommodate. In this paper we summarize some current approaches for performing hierarchical ABC and introduce a new algorithm called Gibbs ABC. This new algorithm incorporates well-known Bayesian techniques to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the ABC approach for estimation of hierarchical models. We then use the Gibbs ABC algorithm to estimate the parameters of two models of signal detection, one with and one without a tractable likelihood function. PMID:24297436

  13. Quantum Bayesian implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Haoyang

    2013-02-01

    Mechanism design is a reverse problem of game theory. Nash implementation and Bayesian implementation are two important parts of mechanism design theory. The former one corresponds to a setting with complete information, whereas the latter one corresponds to a setting with incomplete information. A recent work Wu (Int J Quantum Inf 9:615-623, 2011) shows that when an additional condition is satisfied, the traditional sufficient conditions for Nash implementation will fail in a quantum domain. Inspired by this work, in this paper we will propose that the traditional sufficient conditions for Bayesian implementation will also fail if agents use quantum strategies to send messages to the designer through channels (e.g., Internet, cable etc) and two additional conditions are satisfied.

  14. Bayesian background estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, R.; Dose, V.; Hanson, K. M.; von der Linden, W.

    2001-05-01

    The ubiquitous problem of estimating the background of a measured spectrum is solved with Bayesian probability theory. A mixture model is used to capture the defining characteristics of the problem, namely that the background is smoother than the signal. The smoothness property is quantified in terms of a cubic spline basis where a variable degree of smoothness is attained by allowing the number of knots and the knot positions to be adaptively chosen on the basis of the data. The fully Bayesian approach taken provides a natural way to handle knot adaptivity, allows uncertainties in the background to be estimated and data points to be classified in groups containing only background and groups with additional signal contribution. Our technique is demonstrated on a PIXE spectrum from a geological sample and an Auger spectrum from an 10 monolayer iron film on tungsten.

  15. Bayesian sparse channel estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chulong; Zoltowski, Michael D.

    2012-05-01

    In Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems, the technique used to estimate and track the time-varying multipath channel is critical to ensure reliable, high data rate communications. It is recognized that wireless channels often exhibit a sparse structure, especially for wideband and ultra-wideband systems. In order to exploit this sparse structure to reduce the number of pilot tones and increase the channel estimation quality, the application of compressed sensing to channel estimation is proposed. In this article, to make the compressed channel estimation more feasible for practical applications, it is investigated from a perspective of Bayesian learning. Under the Bayesian learning framework, the large-scale compressed sensing problem, as well as large time delay for the estimation of the doubly selective channel over multiple consecutive OFDM symbols, can be avoided. Simulation studies show a significant improvement in channel estimation MSE and less computing time compared to the conventional compressed channel estimation techniques.

  16. Quantifying male attractiveness.

    PubMed Central

    McNamara, John M; Houston, Alasdair I; Marques Dos Santos, Miguel; Kokko, Hanna; Brooks, Rob

    2003-01-01

    Genetic models of sexual selection are concerned with a dynamic process in which female preference and male trait values coevolve. We present a rigorous method for characterizing evolutionary endpoints of this process in phenotypic terms. In our phenotypic characterization the mate-choice strategy of female population members determines how attractive females should find each male, and a population is evolutionarily stable if population members are actually behaving in this way. This provides a justification of phenotypic explanations of sexual selection and the insights into sexual selection that they provide. Furthermore, the phenotypic approach also has enormous advantages over a genetic approach when computing evolutionarily stable mate-choice strategies, especially when strategies are allowed to be complex time-dependent preference rules. For simplicity and clarity our analysis deals with haploid mate-choice genetics and a male trait that is inherited phenotypically, for example by vertical cultural transmission. The method is, however, easily extendible to other cases. An example illustrates that the sexy son phenomenon can occur when there is phenotypic inheritance of the male trait. PMID:14561306

  17. Attracting Girls Into Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosny, Hala M.; Kahil, Heba M.

    2005-10-01

    From our national statistics, it is evident that in the population of physicists there are considerably fewer women than men. Our role is to attract girls to physics and thus decrease this gap. The institutional structure in Egypt provides an equal opportunity for girls to study sciences, including physics. It is reckoned that girls refrain from studying physics due to a group of social and economic factors. We will discuss teaching physics at schools and present some ideas to develop it. The media should play a role in placing female physicists in the spotlight. Unfortunately, careers that require intellectual skills are considered men's careers. This necessitates that society changes the way it sees women and trusts more in their skills and talents. We therefore call for the cooperation of governmental and nongovernmental bodies, together with universities and the production sectors involved. This will ultimately lead to enhancing the entrepreneurial projects related to physics and technology on the one hand, and will encourage girls to find challenging opportunities on the other.

  18. Chemistry of sex attraction.

    PubMed Central

    Roelofs, W L

    1995-01-01

    The chemical communication system used to attract mates involves not only the overt chemical signals but also indirectly a great deal of chemistry in the emitter and receiver. As an example, in emitting female moths, this includes enzymes (and cofactors, mRNA, genes) of the pheromone biosynthetic pathways, hormones (and genes) involved in controlling pheromone production, receptors and second messengers for the hormones, and host plant cues that control release of the hormone. In receiving male moths, this includes the chemistry of pheromone transportation in antennal olfactory hairs (binding proteins and sensillar esterases) and the chemistry of signal transduction, which includes specific dendritic pheromone receptors and a rapid inositol triphosphate second messenger signal. A fluctuating plume structure is an integral part of the signal since the antennal receptors need intermittent stimulation to sustain upwind flight. Input from the hundreds of thousands of sensory cells is processed and integrated with other modalities in the central nervous system, but many unknown factors modulate the information before it is fed to motor neurons for behavioral responses. An unknown brain control center for pheromone perception is discussed relative to data from behavioral-threshold studies showing modulation by biogenic amines, such as octopamine and serotonin, from genetic studies on pheromone discrimination, and from behavioral and electrophysiological studies with behavioral antagonists. Images Fig. 1 PMID:7816846

  19. Revisiting A Surprising Demonstration of Total Internal Reflection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jiwon; Cha, Yu Wha; Jung, Yeon Su; Oh, Eun Ju; Moon, Ye Lin; Kim, Jung Bog

    2016-10-01

    Melton demonstrated a surprising disappearance using total internal reflection. When he put a Florence flask filled with marbles into a water tank and looked straight down from directly above the flask, he was only able to see marbles above a certain water level. When he added more water into the tank above the top line of the marbles, all of the marbles disappeared. He explained this phenomenon as due to a combination of both refraction and total internal reflection. Here, we wanted to develop this surprising idea to create more surprises. However, in our case, we only took the refraction effect from Melton's idea to demonstrate our magic. This idea is supported by various perspectives. For instance, Viss and Sikkema demonstrated the critical angle without using total internal reflection, and James showed the novel optical properties of a submerged light bulb.

  20. Surprise maximization reveals the community structure of complex networks

    PubMed Central

    Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Marín, Ignacio

    2013-01-01

    How to determine the community structure of complex networks is an open question. It is critical to establish the best strategies for community detection in networks of unknown structure. Here, using standard synthetic benchmarks, we show that none of the algorithms hitherto developed for community structure characterization perform optimally. Significantly, evaluating the results according to their modularity, the most popular measure of the quality of a partition, systematically provides mistaken solutions. However, a novel quality function, called Surprise, can be used to elucidate which is the optimal division into communities. Consequently, we show that the best strategy to find the community structure of all the networks examined involves choosing among the solutions provided by multiple algorithms the one with the highest Surprise value. We conclude that Surprise maximization precisely reveals the community structure of complex networks. PMID:23320141

  1. On Surprise, Change, and the Effect of Recent Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Nevo, Iris; Erev, Ido

    2011-01-01

    The leading models of human and animal learning rest on the assumption that individuals tend to select the alternatives that led to the best recent outcomes. The current research highlights three boundaries of this “recency” assumption. Analysis of the stock market and simple laboratory experiments suggests that positively surprising obtained payoffs, and negatively surprising forgone payoffs reduce the rate of repeating the previous choice. In addition, all previous trails outcomes, except the latest outcome (most recent), have similar effect on future choices. We show that these results, and other robust properties of decisions from experience, can be captured with a simple addition to the leading models: the assumption that surprise triggers change. PMID:22363303

  2. Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.

    2009-12-01

    Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us

  3. Making vasectomy attractive.

    PubMed

    Herndon, N

    1992-08-01

    In 1989, Pro-Pater, a private, nonprofit family planning organization in Brazil, used attractive ads with the message Vasectomy, An Act of Love to promote vasectomy. The number of vasectomies performed/day at Pro-Pater clinics increased from 11 to 20 during the publicity campaign and fell after the ads stopped but continued at higher levels. Word of mouth communication among friends, neighbors, and relatives who had vasectomies maintained these high levels. This type of communication reduced the fear that often involves vasectomies because men hear from men they know and trust that vasectomies are harmless and do not deprive them of potency. In Sao Paulo, the percentage of men familiar with vasectomies and how they are performed increased after the campaign, but in Salvador, knowledge did not increase even though the number of vasectomies in Pro-Pater clinics increased. Organizations in Colombia and Guatemala have also been effective in educating men about vasectomies. These successes were especially relevant in Latin American where machismo has been an obstacle of family planning programs. The no-scalpel technique 1st introduced in China in 1974 reduces the fear of vasectomy and has fewer complications than the conventional technique. Further trained physicians can perform the no-scalpel technique in about 10 minutes compared with 15 minutes for the conventional technique. In 1987 during a 1-day festival in Thailand, physicians averaged 57 no-scalpel vasectomies/day compared with only 33 for conventional vasectomies. This technique has not spread to Guatemala, Brazil, Colombia, the US, and some countries in Asia and Africa. Extensive research does not indicate that vasectomy has an increased risk of testicular cancer, prostate cancer, and myocardial infarction. Physicians are working on ways to improve vasectomy.

  4. Beyond initial attraction: physical attractiveness in newlywed marriage.

    PubMed

    McNulty, James K; Neff, Lisa A; Karney, Benjamin R

    2008-02-01

    Physical appearance plays a crucial role in shaping new relationships, but does it continue to affect established relationships, such as marriage? In the current study, the authors examined how observer ratings of each spouse's facial attractiveness and the difference between those ratings were associated with (a) observations of social support behavior and (b) reports of marital satisfaction. In contrast to the robust and almost universally positive effects of levels of attractiveness on new relationships, the only association between levels of attractiveness and the outcomes of these marriages was that attractive husbands were less satisfied. Further, in contrast to the importance of matched attractiveness to new relationships, similarity in attractiveness was unrelated to spouses' satisfaction and behavior. Instead, the relative difference between partners' levels of attractiveness appeared to be most important in predicting marital behavior, such that both spouses behaved more positively in relationships in which wives were more attractive than their husbands, but they behaved more negatively in relationships in which husbands were more attractive than their wives. These results highlight the importance of dyadic examinations of the effects of spouses' qualities on their marriages.

  5. Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

    PubMed Central

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents’ to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus ‘keep their options open’. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686

  6. Reconsiderations: Donald Murray and the Pedagogy of Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ballenger, Bruce

    2008-01-01

    Toward the end of his life, Donald Murray felt that his approach to writing instruction was no longer appreciated by journals in his field. Nevertheless, his emphasis on encouraging students to surprise themselves through informal writing still has considerable value. (Contains 1 note.)

  7. Revisit: A Surprising Demonstration of Total Internal Reflection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Jiwon; Cha, Yu Wha; Jung, Yeon Su; Oh, Eun Ju; Moon, Ye Lin; Kim, Jung Bog

    2016-01-01

    Melton demonstrated a surprising disappearance using total internal reflection. When he put a Florence flask filled with marbles into a water tank and looked straight down from directly above the flask, he was only able to see marbles above a certain water level. When he added more water into the tank above the top line of the marbles, all of the…

  8. Linear Surprisal and Simple Birth, Death and Immigration Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsukamoto, T.; Honda, T.; Matsuzaki, H.; Ishii, C.

    1987-02-01

    In the conservative Hamiltonian systems, once a distribution of maximal entropy (subject to constraints) is achieved, the exact solution of the Liouville equation is one of the maximal entropy (subject to other constraint conditions), at any moment after that. This is stated in terms of surprisal analysis (a constrained statistical analysis motivated by information-theoretical considerations) as follows : If once the surprisal of a state happens to be linear as a function of measured dynamical variables, it remains linear as a function of the set of dynamical variables which are coupled to the initially measured ones. Taking advantage of this (the preservation of linear surprisal) an investigation is made to incorporate the idea of maximal entropy procedure in the framework of stochastic process. The subject of consideration was limited to the class of ``general birth and death process''. Among the family of stochastic processes belonging to this class the ``simple birth, death and immigration process'' was found to fulfill the necessary and sufficient conditions for the preservation of linear surprisal, so that to be appropriate in describing the states of maximal entropy governed by the Liouville equation.

  9. Reconsiderations: Donald Murray and the Pedagogy of Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ballenger, Bruce

    2008-01-01

    Toward the end of his life, Donald Murray felt that his approach to writing instruction was no longer appreciated by journals in his field. Nevertheless, his emphasis on encouraging students to surprise themselves through informal writing still has considerable value. (Contains 1 note.)

  10. Surprising yields with no-till cropping systems

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Producers using no-till systems have found that crop yields often exceed their expectation based on nutrient and water supply. For example, corn yields 7% higher in a no-till system in central South Dakota than in a tilled system in eastern South Dakota. This is surprising because rainfall is 5 in...

  11. Surprising yields with no-till cropping systems

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Producers using no-till practices have observed that crop yields can greatly exceed expectations based on nutrient and water supply. For example, Ralph Holzwarth, who farms near Gettysburg, SD, has averaged 150 bu/ac of corn on his farm for the past 6 years. We were surprised with this yield, as c...

  12. Revisit: A Surprising Demonstration of Total Internal Reflection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Jiwon; Cha, Yu Wha; Jung, Yeon Su; Oh, Eun Ju; Moon, Ye Lin; Kim, Jung Bog

    2016-01-01

    Melton demonstrated a surprising disappearance using total internal reflection. When he put a Florence flask filled with marbles into a water tank and looked straight down from directly above the flask, he was only able to see marbles above a certain water level. When he added more water into the tank above the top line of the marbles, all of the…

  13. Avoiding surprises when implementing a single quality system.

    PubMed

    Donawa, Maria

    2009-01-01

    European medical device manufacturers are sometimes surprised to learn that operating ISO 13485 alone is not sufficient to meet United States (US) quality system requirements. This article discusses important considerations for meeting US and European requirements when operating under a single quality system.

  14. On Bayesian Simplicity in Human Visual Perceptual Organization.

    PubMed

    van der Helm, Peter A

    2017-01-01

    A returning idea among some Bayesians in research on human visual perceptual organization is that the surprisal of something (i.e., the negative logarithm of its probability) expresses its complexity (i.e., the length of its shortest description). Bayes' rule is a powerful modeling tool and descriptive simplicity is a rich concept, but this idea is wishful thinking at best: If true, it would unify the simplicity and likelihood principles, which reflect two traditionally opposed schools of thought on perceptual organization. Some rapprochement between the two principles can certainly be discerned, but the aforementioned idea lacks formal underpinning and confounds otherwise perfectly good ideas. Here, this idea is revisited and its latest version is debunked step by step. In addition, I argue that its likely origin lies, inadvertently, in a standard Bayesian textbook: The author made (a) a pivotal mistake and (b) a compelling argument that was overinterpreted by others.

  15. Approximate Bayesian Computation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisewski, Jessi

    2015-08-01

    Explicitly specifying a likelihood function is becoming increasingly difficult for many problems in astronomy. Astronomers often specify a simpler approximate likelihood - leaving out important aspects of a more realistic model. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides a framework for performing inference in cases where the likelihood is not available or intractable. I will introduce ABC and explain how it can be a useful tool for astronomers. In particular, I will focus on the eccentricity distribution for a sample of exoplanets with multiple sub-populations.

  16. Bayesian Integrated Microbial Forensics

    SciTech Connect

    Jarman, Kristin H.; Kreuzer-Martin, Helen W.; Wunschel, David S.; Valentine, Nancy B.; Cliff, John B.; Petersen, Catherine E.; Colburn, Heather A.; Wahl, Karen L.

    2008-06-01

    In the aftermath of the 2001 anthrax letters, researchers have been exploring ways to predict the production environment of unknown source microorganisms. Different mass spectral techniques are being developed to characterize components of a microbe’s culture medium including water, carbon and nitrogen sources, metal ions added, and the presence of agar. Individually, each technique has the potential to identify one or two ingredients in a culture medium recipe. However, by integrating data from multiple mass spectral techniques, a more complete characterization is possible. We present a Bayesian statistical approach to integrated microbial forensics and illustrate its application on spores grown in different culture media.

  17. Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

    PubMed

    Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

    2016-05-01

    Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caudle, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

  19. Bayesian Approach for Inconsistent Information

    PubMed Central

    Stein, M.; Beer, M.; Kreinovich, V.

    2013-01-01

    In engineering situations, we usually have a large amount of prior knowledge that needs to be taken into account when processing data. Traditionally, the Bayesian approach is used to process data in the presence of prior knowledge. Sometimes, when we apply the traditional Bayesian techniques to engineering data, we get inconsistencies between the data and prior knowledge. These inconsistencies are usually caused by the fact that in the traditional approach, we assume that we know the exact sample values, that the prior distribution is exactly known, etc. In reality, the data is imprecise due to measurement errors, the prior knowledge is only approximately known, etc. So, a natural way to deal with the seemingly inconsistent information is to take this imprecision into account in the Bayesian approach – e.g., by using fuzzy techniques. In this paper, we describe several possible scenarios for fuzzifying the Bayesian approach. Particular attention is paid to the interaction between the estimated imprecise parameters. In this paper, to implement the corresponding fuzzy versions of the Bayesian formulas, we use straightforward computations of the related expression – which makes our computations reasonably time-consuming. Computations in the traditional (non-fuzzy) Bayesian approach are much faster – because they use algorithmically efficient reformulations of the Bayesian formulas. We expect that similar reformulations of the fuzzy Bayesian formulas will also drastically decrease the computation time and thus, enhance the practical use of the proposed methods. PMID:24089579

  20. Approximate equilibria for Bayesian games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallozzi, Lina; Pusillo, Lucia; Tijs, Stef

    2008-07-01

    In this paper the problem of the existence of approximate equilibria in mixed strategies is central. Sufficient conditions are given under which approximate equilibria exist for non-finite Bayesian games. Further one possible approach is suggested to the problem of the existence of approximate equilibria for the class of multicriteria Bayesian games.

  1. Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caudle, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

  2. The Measurement of Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCroskey, James C.; McCain, Thomas A.

    This paper reports a factor analytic investigation of the interpersonal attraction construct. Two hundred-fifteen subjects completed 30 Likert-type, 7-step scales concerning an acquaintance. Factor analysis indicated three dimensions of the interpersonal attraction construct which were labeled "task,""social," and "physical." Obtained internal…

  3. Physical Attractiveness and Courtship Progress.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Gregory L.

    1980-01-01

    Among college students who were casual or serious daters, greater relative attractiveness was positively correlated with greater relative availability of opposite-sexed friends and negatively correlated with worrying about partner's potential involvement with others. A 9-month follow-up revealed that similarity of attractiveness was predictive of…

  4. Physical Attractiveness and Counseling Skills.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vargas, Alice M.; Borkowski, John G.

    1982-01-01

    Searched for interaction between quality of counseling skills (presence or absence of empathy, genuineness, and positive regard) and physical attractiveness as determinants of counseling effectiveness. Attractiveness influenced perceived effectiveness of counselor's skill. Analyses of expectancy data revealed that only with good skills did…

  5. Personality Mediators of Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Charles D.; And Others

    The current study was an examination of the effect of personality variables on the relationship between attitude disagreement and attraction. Attraction was measured in a neutral situation, designed to maximize any existing affective predispositions toward attitude agreement-disagreements. Subjects were placed in an ambiguous face-to-face…

  6. AIM: Attracting Women into Sciences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartman, Icial S.

    1995-01-01

    Addresses how to attract more college women into the sciences. Attracting Women into Sciences (AIM) is a comprehensive approach that begins with advising, advertising, and ambiguity. The advising process includes dispelling stereotypes and reviewing the options open to a female basic science major. Interaction, involvement and instruction, finding…

  7. Physical Attractiveness and Counseling Skills.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vargas, Alice M.; Borkowski, John G.

    1982-01-01

    Searched for interaction between quality of counseling skills (presence or absence of empathy, genuineness, and positive regard) and physical attractiveness as determinants of counseling effectiveness. Attractiveness influenced perceived effectiveness of counselor's skill. Analyses of expectancy data revealed that only with good skills did…

  8. African Perceptions of Female Attractiveness

    PubMed Central

    Coetzee, Vinet; Faerber, Stella J.; Greeff, Jaco M.; Lefevre, Carmen E.; Re, Daniel E.; Perrett, David I.

    2012-01-01

    Little is known about mate choice preferences outside Western, educated, industrialised, rich and democratic societies, even though these Western populations may be particularly unrepresentative of human populations. To our knowledge, this is the first study to test which facial cues contribute to African perceptions of African female attractiveness and also the first study to test the combined role of facial adiposity, skin colour (lightness, yellowness and redness), skin homogeneity and youthfulness in the facial attractiveness preferences of any population. Results show that youthfulness, skin colour, skin homogeneity and facial adiposity significantly and independently predict attractiveness in female African faces. Younger, thinner women with a lighter, yellower skin colour and a more homogenous skin tone are considered more attractive. These findings provide a more global perspective on human mate choice and point to a universal role for these four facial cues in female facial attractiveness. PMID:23144734

  9. African perceptions of female attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Coetzee, Vinet; Faerber, Stella J; Greeff, Jaco M; Lefevre, Carmen E; Re, Daniel E; Perrett, David I

    2012-01-01

    Little is known about mate choice preferences outside Western, educated, industrialised, rich and democratic societies, even though these Western populations may be particularly unrepresentative of human populations. To our knowledge, this is the first study to test which facial cues contribute to African perceptions of African female attractiveness and also the first study to test the combined role of facial adiposity, skin colour (lightness, yellowness and redness), skin homogeneity and youthfulness in the facial attractiveness preferences of any population. Results show that youthfulness, skin colour, skin homogeneity and facial adiposity significantly and independently predict attractiveness in female African faces. Younger, thinner women with a lighter, yellower skin colour and a more homogenous skin tone are considered more attractive. These findings provide a more global perspective on human mate choice and point to a universal role for these four facial cues in female facial attractiveness.

  10. Quantum-Bayesian coherence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchs, Christopher A.; Schack, Rüdiger

    2013-10-01

    In the quantum-Bayesian interpretation of quantum theory (or QBism), the Born rule cannot be interpreted as a rule for setting measurement-outcome probabilities from an objective quantum state. But if not, what is the role of the rule? In this paper, the argument is given that it should be seen as an empirical addition to Bayesian reasoning itself. Particularly, it is shown how to view the Born rule as a normative rule in addition to usual Dutch-book coherence. It is a rule that takes into account how one should assign probabilities to the consequences of various intended measurements on a physical system, but explicitly in terms of prior probabilities for and conditional probabilities consequent upon the imagined outcomes of a special counterfactual reference measurement. This interpretation is exemplified by representing quantum states in terms of probabilities for the outcomes of a fixed, fiducial symmetric informationally complete measurement. The extent to which the general form of the new normative rule implies the full state-space structure of quantum mechanics is explored.

  11. Adaptive Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Ng, B M

    2007-10-26

    A discrete-time Markov process can be compactly modeled as a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)--a graphical model with nodes representing random variables and directed edges indicating causality between variables. Each node has a probability distribution, conditional on the variables represented by the parent nodes. A DBN's graphical structure encodes fixed conditional dependencies between variables. But in real-world systems, conditional dependencies between variables may be unknown a priori or may vary over time. Model errors can result if the DBN fails to capture all possible interactions between variables. Thus, we explore the representational framework of adaptive DBNs, whose structure and parameters can change from one time step to the next: a distribution's parameters and its set of conditional variables are dynamic. This work builds on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian modeling, such as hierarchical Dirichlet processes, infinite-state hidden Markov networks and structured priors for Bayes net learning. In this paper, we will explain the motivation for our interest in adaptive DBNs, show how popular nonparametric methods are combined to formulate the foundations for adaptive DBNs, and present preliminary results.

  12. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso

    PubMed Central

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G.

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size (n) is less than the dimension (d), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data. PMID:24551316

  13. Infants’ Looking to Surprising Events: When Eye-Tracking Reveals More than Looking Time

    PubMed Central

    Yeung, H. Henny; Denison, Stephanie; Johnson, Scott P.

    2016-01-01

    Research on infants’ reasoning abilities often rely on looking times, which are longer to surprising and unexpected visual scenes compared to unsurprising and expected ones. Few researchers have examined more precise visual scanning patterns in these scenes, and so, here, we recorded 8- to 11-month-olds’ gaze with an eye tracker as we presented a sampling event whose outcome was either surprising, neutral, or unsurprising: A red (or yellow) ball was drawn from one of three visible containers populated 0%, 50%, or 100% with identically colored balls. When measuring looking time to the whole scene, infants were insensitive to the likelihood of the sampling event, replicating failures in similar paradigms. Nevertheless, a new analysis of visual scanning showed that infants did spend more time fixating specific areas-of-interest as a function of the event likelihood. The drawn ball and its associated container attracted more looking than the other containers in the 0% condition, but this pattern was weaker in the 50% condition, and even less strong in the 100% condition. Results suggest that measuring where infants look may be more sensitive than simply how much looking there is to the whole scene. The advantages of eye tracking measures over traditional looking measures are discussed. PMID:27926920

  14. Infants' Looking to Surprising Events: When Eye-Tracking Reveals More than Looking Time.

    PubMed

    Yeung, H Henny; Denison, Stephanie; Johnson, Scott P

    2016-01-01

    Research on infants' reasoning abilities often rely on looking times, which are longer to surprising and unexpected visual scenes compared to unsurprising and expected ones. Few researchers have examined more precise visual scanning patterns in these scenes, and so, here, we recorded 8- to 11-month-olds' gaze with an eye tracker as we presented a sampling event whose outcome was either surprising, neutral, or unsurprising: A red (or yellow) ball was drawn from one of three visible containers populated 0%, 50%, or 100% with identically colored balls. When measuring looking time to the whole scene, infants were insensitive to the likelihood of the sampling event, replicating failures in similar paradigms. Nevertheless, a new analysis of visual scanning showed that infants did spend more time fixating specific areas-of-interest as a function of the event likelihood. The drawn ball and its associated container attracted more looking than the other containers in the 0% condition, but this pattern was weaker in the 50% condition, and even less strong in the 100% condition. Results suggest that measuring where infants look may be more sensitive than simply how much looking there is to the whole scene. The advantages of eye tracking measures over traditional looking measures are discussed.

  15. Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, Michelle E.

    Approximately one hundred participants met for three days at a conference entitled "Uncertainty and Surprise: Questions on Working with the Unexpected and Unknowable." There were a diversity of conference participants ranging from researchers in the natural sciences and researchers in the social sciences (business professors, physicists, ethnographers, nursing school deans) to practitioners and executives in public policy and management (business owners, health care managers, high tech executives), all of whom had varying levels of experience and expertise in dealing with uncertainty and surprise. One group held the traditional, statistical view that uncertainty comes from variance and events that are described by usually unimodal probability law. A second group was comfortable on the one hand with phase diagrams and the phase transitions that come from systems with multi-modal distributions, and on the other hand, with deterministic chaos. A third group was comfortable with the emergent events from evolutionary processes that may not have any probability laws at all.

  16. Positive affect, surprise, and fatigue are correlates of network flexibility.

    PubMed

    Betzel, Richard F; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Gold, Joshua I; Bassett, Danielle S

    2017-03-31

    Advances in neuroimaging have made it possible to reconstruct functional networks from the activity patterns of brain regions distributed across the cerebral cortex. Recent work has shown that flexible reconfiguration of human brain networks over short timescales supports cognitive flexibility and learning. However, modulating network flexibility to enhance learning requires an understanding of an as-yet unknown relationship between flexibility and brain state. Here, we investigate the relationship between network flexibility and affect, leveraging an unprecedented longitudinal data set. We demonstrate that indices associated with positive mood and surprise are both associated with network flexibility - positive mood portends a more flexible brain while increased levels of surprise portend a less flexible brain. In both cases, these relationships are driven predominantly by a subset of brain regions comprising the somatomotor system. Our results simultaneously suggest a network-level mechanism underlying learning deficits in mood disorders as well as a potential target - altering an individual's mood or task novelty - to improve learning.

  17. A construction of pooling designs with some happy surprises.

    PubMed

    D'Yachkov, A; Hwang, Frank; Macula, Antony; Vilenkin, Pavel; Weng, Chih-Wen

    2005-10-01

    The screening of data sets for "positive data objects" is essential to modern technology. A (group) test that indicates whether a positive data object is in a specific subset or pool of the dataset can greatly facilitate the identification of all the positive data objects. A collection of tested pools is called a pooling design. Pooling designs are standard experimental tools in many biotechnical applications. In this paper, we use the (linear) subspace relation coupled with the general concept of a "containment matrix" to construct pooling designs with surprisingly high degrees of error correction (detection.) Error-correcting pooling designs are important to biotechnical applications where error rates often are as high as 15%. What is also surprising is that the rank of the pooling design containment matrix is independent of the number of positive data objects in the dataset.

  18. Predictable surprises: the disasters you should have seen coming.

    PubMed

    Watkins, Michael D; Bazerman, Max H

    2003-03-01

    Think hard about the problems in your organization or about potential upheavals in the markets in which you operate. Could some of those problems--ones no one is attending to--turn into disasters? If you're like most executives, you'll sheepishly answer yes. As Harvard Business School professors Michael Watkins and Max Bazerman illustrate in this timely article, most of the "unexpected" events that buffet companies should have been anticipated--they're "predictable surprises." Such disasters take many forms, from financial scandals to disruptions in operations, from organizational upheavals to product failures. Some result in short-term losses or distractions, while others cause damage that takes years to repair. Some are truly catastrophic--the events of September 11, 2001, are a tragic example of a predictable surprise. The bad news is that all companies, including your own, are vulnerable to predictable surprises. The good news is that recent research helps explain why that's so and what companies can do to minimize their risk. The authors contend that organizations' inability to prepare for predictable surprises can be traced to three sets of vulnerabilities: psychological, organizational, and political. To address these vulnerabilities, the authors recommend the RPM approach. More than just the usual environmental scanning and contingency planning, RPM requires a chain of actions--recognizing, prioritizing, and mobilizing--that companies must meticulously adhere to. Failure to apply any one of these steps, the authors say, can leave an organization vulnerable. Given the extraordinarily high stakes involved, it should be every business leader's core responsibility to apply the RPM approach, the authors conclude.

  19. The June surprises: balls, strikes, and the fog of war.

    PubMed

    Fried, Charles

    2013-04-01

    At first, few constitutional experts took seriously the argument that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exceeded Congress's power under the commerce clause. The highly political opinions of two federal district judges - carefully chosen by challenging plaintiffs - of no particular distinction did not shake that confidence that the act was constitutional. This disdain for the challengers' arguments was only confirmed when the act was upheld by two highly respected conservative court of appeals judges in two separate circuits. But after the hostile, even mocking questioning of the government's advocate in the Supreme Court by the five Republican-appointed justices, the expectation was that the act would indeed be struck down on that ground. So it came as no surprise when the five opined the act did indeed exceed Congress's commerce clause power. But it came as a great surprise when Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by the four Democrat-appointed justices, ruled that the act could be sustained as an exercise of Congress's taxing power - a ground urged by the government almost as an afterthought. It was further surprising, even shocking, that Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito not only wrote a joint opinion on the commerce clause virtually identical to that of their chief, but that in writing it they did not refer to or even acknowledge his opinion. Finally surprising was the fact that Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer joined the chief in holding that aspects of the act's Medicaid expansion were unconstitutional. This essay ponders and tries to unravel some of these puzzles.

  20. Strategic Warning: If Surprise is Inevitable, What Role for Analysis?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-01-01

    Z39-18 2 Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Occasional Papers: Volume 2, Number 1 Strategic Warning: If Surprise is Inevitable...central mission of intelligence analysis is to warn US officials about dangers to national security interests and to alert them to perceived openings to...imbedded doctrine that sets a wall of separation between intelligence analysis and policy-support activities in any guise. Once analysts sense that

  1. Bayesian estimation of the shape skeleton

    PubMed Central

    Feldman, Jacob; Singh, Manish

    2006-01-01

    Skeletal representations of shape have attracted enormous interest ever since their introduction by Blum [Blum H (1973) J Theor Biol 38:205–287], because of their potential to provide a compact, but meaningful, shape representation, suitable for both neural modeling and computational applications. But effective computation of the shape skeleton remains a notorious unsolved problem; existing approaches are extremely sensitive to noise and give counterintuitive results with simple shapes. In conventional approaches, the skeleton is defined by a geometric construction and computed by a deterministic procedure. We introduce a Bayesian probabilistic approach, in which a shape is assumed to have “grown” from a skeleton by a stochastic generative process. Bayesian estimation is used to identify the skeleton most likely to have produced the shape, i.e., that best “explains” it, called the maximum a posteriori skeleton. Even with natural shapes with substantial contour noise, this approach provides a robust skeletal representation whose branches correspond to the natural parts of the shape. PMID:17101989

  2. Bayesian Inference for Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation Models

    PubMed Central

    Cemgil, Ali Taylan

    2009-01-01

    We describe nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) with a Kullback-Leibler (KL) error measure in a statistical framework, with a hierarchical generative model consisting of an observation and a prior component. Omitting the prior leads to the standard KL-NMF algorithms as special cases, where maximum likelihood parameter estimation is carried out via the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm. Starting from this view, we develop full Bayesian inference via variational Bayes or Monte Carlo. Our construction retains conjugacy and enables us to develop more powerful models while retaining attractive features of standard NMF such as monotonic convergence and easy implementation. We illustrate our approach on model order selection and image reconstruction. PMID:19536273

  3. Surprising depth cue captures attention in visual search.

    PubMed

    Plewan, Thorsten; Rinkenauer, Gerhard

    2017-10-04

    A substantial amount of evidence indicates that surprising events capture attention. The present study was primarily intended to investigate whether expectancy discrepant depth information also is able to capture attention immediately and-more specifically-whether cues that are relatively closer or farther differentially modulate behavior. For this purpose, participants had to identify one of two target letters in a search display. Stimulus positions were initially cued by uninformative placeholders. After half of the trials, the cue at the target position was suddenly and unexpectedly (critical trial) displayed closer to or farther from the observer. In line with previous research, both depth cues captured attention on their very first appearance. Performance in the critical trial was superior to the error rates in the trials without depth cue and was even above the performance in subsequent trials that included depth cue. This effect was only observed when the cue preceded the target by 400 ms. Using a shorter cue-stimulus interval of 100 ms, only a delayed improvement was observed, which denotes a typical feature of surprise capture. Moreover, response times were faster in trials comprising a depth cue, and this was already true for the critical trial. Apart from that, no other marked differences between near and far depth cues were observed. Therefore, the present results emphasize that surprising depth information indeed captures attention. However, in contrast to other perceptual tasks, search performance was not considerably influenced by relative position in depth.

  4. False memory following rapidly presented lists: the element of surprise.

    PubMed

    Whittlesea, Bruce W A; Masson, Michael E J; Hughes, Andrea D

    2005-06-01

    This article examines a false memory phenomenon, the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) effect, consisting of high false alarms for a prototype word (e.g., SLEEP) following a study list consisting of its associates (NIGHT, DREAM, etc.). This false recognition is thought to occur because prototypes, although not presented within a study list, are highly activated by their semantic association with words that are in the list. The authors present an alternative explanation of the effect, based on the discrepancy-attribution hypothesis. According to that account, false (and true) familiarity results when a comparison between expectations and outcomes within a processing episode causes surprise. Experiment 1 replicates the DRM effect. Experiment 2 shows that a similar effect can occur when participants are shown lists of unrelated words and are then surprised by a recognition target. Experiments 3 and 4 show that the DRM effect itself is abolished when participants are prevented from being surprised by prototypes presented as recognition targets. It is proposed that the DRM effect is best understood through the principles of construction, evaluation, and attribution.

  5. Bayesian classification theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanson, Robin; Stutz, John; Cheeseman, Peter

    1991-01-01

    The task of inferring a set of classes and class descriptions most likely to explain a given data set can be placed on a firm theoretical foundation using Bayesian statistics. Within this framework and using various mathematical and algorithmic approximations, the AutoClass system searches for the most probable classifications, automatically choosing the number of classes and complexity of class descriptions. A simpler version of AutoClass has been applied to many large real data sets, has discovered new independently-verified phenomena, and has been released as a robust software package. Recent extensions allow attributes to be selectively correlated within particular classes, and allow classes to inherit or share model parameters though a class hierarchy. We summarize the mathematical foundations of AutoClass.

  6. Bayesian Cherry Picking Revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garrett, Anthony J. M.; Prozesky, Victor M.; Padayachee, J.

    2004-04-01

    Tins are marketed as containing nine cherries. To fill the tins, cherries are fed into a drum containing twelve holes through which air is sucked; either zero, one or two cherries stick in each hole. Dielectric measurements are then made on each hole. Three outcomes are distinguished: empty hole (which is reliable); one cherry (which indicates one cherry with high probability, or two cherries with a complementary low probability known from calibration); or an uncertain number (which also indicates one cherry or two, with known probabilities that are quite similar). A choice can be made from which holes simultaneously to discharge contents into the tin. The sum and product rules of probability are applied in a Bayesian manner to find the distribution for the number of cherries in the tin. Based on this distribution, ways are discussed to optimise the number to nine cherries.

  7. Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction.

    PubMed

    Gönen, Mehmet

    2013-12-01

    Dimensionality reduction is commonly used as a preprocessing step before training a supervised learner. However, coupled training of dimensionality reduction and supervised learning steps may improve the prediction performance. In this paper, we introduce a simple and novel Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction method that combines linear dimensionality reduction and linear supervised learning in a principled way. We present both Gibbs sampling and variational approximation approaches to learn the proposed probabilistic model for multiclass classification. We also extend our formulation toward model selection using automatic relevance determination in order to find the intrinsic dimensionality. Classification experiments on three benchmark data sets show that the new model significantly outperforms seven baseline linear dimensionality reduction algorithms on very low dimensions in terms of generalization performance on test data. The proposed model also obtains the best results on an image recognition task in terms of classification and retrieval performances.

  8. Bayesian sperm competition estimates.

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Beatrix; Clark, Andrew G

    2003-01-01

    We introduce a Bayesian method for estimating parameters for a model of multiple mating and sperm displacement from genotype counts of brood-structured data. The model is initially targeted for Drosophila melanogaster, but is easily adapted to other organisms. The method is appropriate for use with field studies where the number of mates and the genotypes of the mates cannot be controlled, but where unlinked markers have been collected for a set of females and a sample of their offspring. Advantages over previous approaches include full use of multilocus information and the ability to cope appropriately with missing data and ambiguities about which alleles are maternally vs. paternally inherited. The advantages of including X-linked markers are also demonstrated. PMID:12663555

  9. Bayesian inference in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.

  10. Environmental Esthetics and Interpersonal Attraction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kitchens, James T.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Discusses a study designed to determine the effects of visual environmental esthetics on interpersonal attraction and concludes that visual esthetics influence participants' perspectives of their partners in live interpersonal communication settings. (MH)

  11. Depression, Schizophrenia, and Social Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boswell, Philip C.; Murray, Edward J.

    1981-01-01

    Compared the dysphoric mood induction and attraction that subjects reported after a vicarious experience with a depressed patient and a comparable experience with a schizophrenic patient. Results showed similar arousal of dysphoric mood and rejection for both patients. (RC)

  12. Creating kampong as tourist attractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sari, N.; Utama, R.; Hidayat, A. R. T.; Zamrony, A. B.

    2017-06-01

    Tourism attractions become one of the main components and they drive the tourism activity in a region. The quality of tourism attractions would affect tourists’ visits. Tourism power can basically be built on any conditions which can attract people to visit. Towns is full of activities which include their economic, social, cultural and physical features, if they are presented properly, they can be a tourist attraction. Kampung City, as a form of urban settlement, has the potential to be developed as a tourism attraction. Kampung is not only a physical area of housing but it has also productive activities. Even the city’s economic activities are also influenced by the productive activities of its Kampung. The shape of Kampung which varies in physical, social, economic and cultural raises special characteristics of each Kampung. When it is linked with the city’s tourism activities, these special characteristics of course could be one of the attractions to attract tourists. This paper studies about one of Kampung in the Malang City. Administratively located in the Penanggungan Village Lowokwaru District, but the potential will just be focused on RW 4. Main productive activities of this village are pottery. In contrast to ceramics, pottery is made from clay and its uniqueness in color and shape. Based on the history of pottery in the Malang, it is concentrated in Penanggungan Village. But along with its development, pottery is decreasingly in demand and number of craftsmen is dwindling. Based on these circumstances, a concept is prepared to raise the image of the region as the Kampung of pottery and to repack it as a tourism attraction of the city.

  13. Attraction between hydrated hydrophilic surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanduč, Matej; Schneck, Emanuel; Netz, Roland R.

    2014-08-01

    According to common knowledge, hydrophilic surfaces repel via hydration forces while hydrophobic surfaces attract, but mounting experimental evidence suggests that also hydrophilic surfaces can attract. Using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations at prescribed water chemical potential we study the crossover from hydration repulsion to hydrophobic attraction for planar polar surfaces of varying stiffness and hydrogen-bonding capability. Rescaling the partial charges of the polar surface groups, we cover the complete spectrum from very hydrophobic surfaces (characterized by contact angles θ ≃ 135°) to hydrophilic surfaces exhibiting complete wetting (θ = 0°). Indeed, for a finite range θadh < θ < 90°, we find a regime where hydrophilic surfaces attract at sub-nanometer separation and stably adhere without intervening water. The adhesive contact angle θadh depends on surface type and lies in the range 65° < θadh < 80°, in good agreement with experiments. Analysis of the total number of hydrogen bonds (HBs) formed by water and surface groups rationalizes this crossover between hydration repulsion and hydrophilic attraction in terms of a subtle balance: Highly polar surfaces repel because of strongly bound hydration water, less polar hydrophilic surfaces attract because water-water HBs are preferred over surface-water HBs. Such solvent reorganization forces presumably underlie also other important phenomena, such as selective ion adsorption to interfaces as well as ion pair formation.

  14. Selenium in San Francisco Bay - 30 Years of Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cutter, G. A.

    2015-12-01

    The trace element selenium exists in multiple oxidation states (VI, IV, 0, -II) and chemical forms within an oxidation state, and this chemical speciation affects its bio-availability and geochemical cycling. The interactions between the physical circulation and riverine inputs, changing ecosystem components, and industrial inputs to the San Francisco Bay have had profound and surprising influences on the biogeochemical behavior of selenium in this estuary. In the mid-1980s dissolved selenium was relatively elevated and enriched in selenite (SeIV) in the mid-estuary, occurrences that were quantitatively linked to inputs from oil refinery effluents. Suspended particulate selenium concentrations were at a level considered problematic for filter feeding clams with high assimilation efficiencies. By 1999 oil refineries had implemented selenium removal processes that dramatically dropped the concentrations of total dissolved selenium and selenite by over 65% in the estuarine water column. Surprisingly, the concentrations of selenium in suspended particles did not drop as dramatically. We suspect that changes in the ecosystem, including the abundance of certain phytoplankton species and changes in benthic grazing affect the abundance of selenium in suspended particles. These and other changes within the San Francisco Bay system have been simulated in numerical models that reveal other surprising aspects of selenium cycling in this estuary. Data and models will be discussed in this presentation, and implications for other trace elements presented.

  15. A Surprising Alliance: Two Giants of the 20th Century.

    PubMed

    Sade, Robert M

    2017-06-01

    Alexis Carrel and Charles Lindbergh were among the most famous international figures in the 20th century: Carrel, the surgeon-scientist who won a Nobel prize as a young surgeon, and Lindbergh, the aviator-engineer who pioneered aviation and promoted commercial flight throughout his life. Surprisingly, these two amazing individuals came together to collaborate on the early development of extracorporeal circulation. Their work was interrupted by the onset of World War II, which destroyed one of them and nearly destroyed the other. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Surprises in operations on the inguinal area in young children.

    PubMed

    MARKS, R M

    1962-08-01

    In surgical operations in the inguinal area in infants and children many unusual pathologic states were observed that were at first thought to be simple hernia. Among the conditions observed, in addition to complicated hernias and other anomalies of the processus vaginalis, were male pseudo-hermaphroditism, ectopic spleen, ectopic adrenal with neuroblastoma, diverticulum of the bladder, inguinal adenitis and suppurative iliac adenitis. In light of the sometimes surprising contents of the hernia sac, good exposure and careful identification of all anatomic structures is mandatory.

  17. Bayesian approach to two-stage phase II trial.

    PubMed

    Pepple, P A; Choi, S C

    1997-05-01

    Consider the situation in which there are several different therapeutic agents. It is desired to select the best agent and to examine its efficacy relative to the control. Too often clinical trials terminate with negative outcomes in part due to inadequate phase II studies. A two-stage phase II based on a Bayesian approach is considered in order to reduce such likelihood. The first stage consists of selecting the best agent and the second stage consists of examining the relative efficacy of the selected agent compared to the control. A formal phase III clinical trial can be initiated when the particular agent is shown to be promising on the basis of the proposed phase II study. The Bayesian approach employed uses an ad hoc likelihood due to the fact that the exact likelihood is complex and intractable. In this sense the proposed approach is thus an approximation. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed Bayesian approach and compared to two fixed-sample-size approaches. Due to the fact that the procedure is approximate, the simulation study is essential to assess the usefulness of the procedure. The study suggests that the Bayesian approach is an attractive alternative to fixed-sample-size approaches.

  18. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  19. Word learning as Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Xu, Fei; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2007-04-01

    The authors present a Bayesian framework for understanding how adults and children learn the meanings of words. The theory explains how learners can generalize meaningfully from just one or a few positive examples of a novel word's referents, by making rational inductive inferences that integrate prior knowledge about plausible word meanings with the statistical structure of the observed examples. The theory addresses shortcomings of the two best known approaches to modeling word learning, based on deductive hypothesis elimination and associative learning. Three experiments with adults and children test the Bayesian account's predictions in the context of learning words for object categories at multiple levels of a taxonomic hierarchy. Results provide strong support for the Bayesian account over competing accounts, in terms of both quantitative model fits and the ability to explain important qualitative phenomena. Several extensions of the basic theory are discussed, illustrating the broader potential for Bayesian models of word learning. (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Sparsity and the Bayesian perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starck, J.-L.; Donoho, D. L.; Fadili, M. J.; Rassat, A.

    2013-04-01

    Sparsity has recently been introduced in cosmology for weak-lensing and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data analysis for different applications such as denoising, component separation, or inpainting (i.e., filling the missing data or the mask). Although it gives very nice numerical results, CMB sparse inpainting has been severely criticized by top researchers in cosmology using arguments derived from a Bayesian perspective. In an attempt to understand their point of view, we realize that interpreting a regularization penalty term as a prior in a Bayesian framework can lead to erroneous conclusions. This paper is by no means against the Bayesian approach, which has proven to be very useful for many applications, but warns against a Bayesian-only interpretation in data analysis, which can be misleading in some cases.

  1. Bayesian Models for Astrophysical Data Using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilbe, Joseph M.; de Souza, Rafael S.; Ishida, Emille E. O.

    2017-05-01

    This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

  2. Estimations of expectedness and potential surprise in possibility theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prade, Henri; Yager, Ronald R.

    1992-01-01

    This note investigates how various ideas of 'expectedness' can be captured in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, we are interested in trying to introduce estimates of the kind of lack of surprise expressed by people when saying 'I would not be surprised that...' before an event takes place, or by saying 'I knew it' after its realization. In possibility theory, a possibility distribution is supposed to model the relative levels of mutually exclusive alternatives in a set, or equivalently, the alternatives are assumed to be rank-ordered according to their level of possibility to take place. Four basic set-functions associated with a possibility distribution, including standard possibility and necessity measures, are discussed from the point of view of what they estimate when applied to potential events. Extensions of these estimates based on the notions of Q-projection or OWA operators are proposed when only significant parts of the possibility distribution are retained in the evaluation. The case of partially-known possibility distributions is also considered. Some potential applications are outlined.

  3. 10 years of surprises at Saturn: CAPS and INMS highlights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coates, A. J.; Waite, J. H.

    2014-04-01

    The Cassini mission at Saturn has provided many surprises on Saturn's rapidly rotating magnetosphere and its interaction with the diverse moons, as well as its interaction with the solar wind. One of the early discoveries was the water-rich composition of the magnetosphere. Its structure and dynamics indicate remarkable injections, periodicities and interchange events. Enceladus, orbiting at 4 RS, was found to have plumes of water vapour and ice which are the dominant source for the inner magnetosphere. Charged water clusters, charged dust and photoelectrons provide key populations in the 'dusty plasma' seen here, as well as chemical complexity in the plume material. Direct pickup is seen near Enceladus and field aligned currents create a spot in Saturn's aurora. At Titan, orbiting at 20 RS, heavy negative and positive ions are seen in the ionosphere, as well as neutrals, all of which have surprising chemical complexity. These provide the source for Titan's haze. Ionospheric plasma is seen in Titan's tail, enabling ion escape to be estimated at 7 tonnes per day. Saturn's ring ionosphere was seen early in the mission, which was oxygen rich and produced photoelectrons; a return will be made in 2017. At Rhea, pickup positive and negative ions indicated weak atmospheres sustained by energetic particle impact, seen in the neutrals also. A weak atmosphere was also seen at Dione. The exosphere production process operates at Jupiter's moons also. Here we review some of the key new results, and discuss the implications for other solar system contexts.

  4. Bayesian Tracking of Visual Objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Nanning; Xue, Jianru

    Tracking objects in image sequences involves performing motion analysis at the object level, which is becoming an increasingly important technology in a wide range of computer video applications, including video teleconferencing, security and surveillance, video segmentation, and editing. In this chapter, we focus on sequential Bayesian estimation techniques for visual tracking. We first introduce the sequential Bayesian estimation framework, which acts as the theoretic basis for visual tracking. Then, we present approaches to constructing representation models for specific objects.

  5. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  6. Heritability of Attractiveness to Mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Fernández-Grandon, G. Mandela; Gezan, Salvador A.; Armour, John A. L.; Pickett, John A.; Logan, James G.

    2015-01-01

    Female mosquitoes display preferences for certain individuals over others, which is determined by differences in volatile chemicals produced by the human body and detected by mosquitoes. Body odour can be controlled genetically but the existence of a genetic basis for differential attraction to insects has never been formally demonstrated. This study investigated heritability of attractiveness to mosquitoes by evaluating the response of Aedes aegypti (=Stegomyia aegypti) mosquitoes to odours from the hands of identical and non-identical twins in a dual-choice assay. Volatiles from individuals in an identical twin pair showed a high correlation in attractiveness to mosquitoes, while non-identical twin pairs showed a significantly lower correlation. Overall, there was a strong narrow-sense heritability of 0.62 (SE 0.124) for relative attraction and 0.67 (0.354) for flight activity based on the average of ten measurements. The results demonstrate an underlying genetic component detectable by mosquitoes through olfaction. Understanding the genetic basis for attractiveness could create a more informed approach to repellent development. PMID:25901606

  7. Vocal attractiveness increases by averaging.

    PubMed

    Bruckert, Laetitia; Bestelmeyer, Patricia; Latinus, Marianne; Rouger, Julien; Charest, Ian; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Kawahara, Hideki; Belin, Pascal

    2010-01-26

    Vocal attractiveness has a profound influence on listeners-a bias known as the "what sounds beautiful is good" vocal attractiveness stereotype [1]-with tangible impact on a voice owner's success at mating, job applications, and/or elections. The prevailing view holds that attractive voices are those that signal desirable attributes in a potential mate [2-4]-e.g., lower pitch in male voices. However, this account does not explain our preferences in more general social contexts in which voices of both genders are evaluated. Here we show that averaging voices via auditory morphing [5] results in more attractive voices, irrespective of the speaker's or listener's gender. Moreover, we show that this phenomenon is largely explained by two independent by-products of averaging: a smoother voice texture (reduced aperiodicities) and a greater similarity in pitch and timbre with the average of all voices (reduced "distance to mean"). These results provide the first evidence for a phenomenon of vocal attractiveness increases by averaging, analogous to a well-established effect of facial averaging [6, 7]. They highlight prototype-based coding [8] as a central feature of voice perception, emphasizing the similarity in the mechanisms of face and voice perception. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Aversion and attraction through olfaction

    PubMed Central

    Li, Qian; Liberles, Stephen D.

    2015-01-01

    Sensory cues that predict reward or punishment are fundamental drivers of animal behavior. For example, attractive odors of palatable food or a potential mate predict reward while aversive odors of pathogen-laced food or a predator predict punishment. Aversive and attractive odors can be detected by intermingled sensory neurons that express highly related olfactory receptors and display similar central projections. These findings raise basic questions of how innate odor valence is extracted from olfactory circuits, how such circuits are developmentally endowed and modulated by state, and the relationship between innate and learned odor responses. Here, we review odors, receptors, and neural circuits associated with stimulus valence, discussing salient principles derived from studies on nematodes, insects, and vertebrates. Understanding the organization of neural circuitry that mediates odor aversion and attraction will provide key insights into how the brain functions. PMID:25649823

  9. The physics of pollinator attraction.

    PubMed

    Moyroud, Edwige; Glover, Beverley J

    2017-10-01

    Contents 350 I. 350 II. 350 III. 352 IV. 353 V. 353 353 References 354 SUMMARY: This Tansley Insight focuses on recent advances in our understanding of how flowers manipulate physical forces to attract animal pollinators and ensure reproductive success. Research has traditionally explored the role of chemical pigments and volatile organic compounds as cues for pollinators, but recent reports have demonstrated the importance of physical and structural means of pollinator attraction. Here we explore the role of petal microstructure in influencing floral light capture and optics, analysing colour, gloss and polarization effects. We discuss the interaction between flower, pollinator and gravity, and how petal surface structure can influence that interaction. Finally, we consider the role of electrostatic forces in pollen transfer and pollinator attraction. We conclude that this new interdisciplinary field is evolving rapidly. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  10. Bayesian Error Estimation Functionals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobsen, Karsten W.

    The challenge of approximating the exchange-correlation functional in Density Functional Theory (DFT) has led to the development of numerous different approximations of varying accuracy on different calculated properties. There is therefore a need for reliable estimation of prediction errors within the different approximation schemes to DFT. The Bayesian Error Estimation Functionals (BEEF) have been developed with this in mind. The functionals are constructed by fitting to experimental and high-quality computational databases for molecules and solids including chemisorption and van der Waals systems. This leads to reasonably accurate general-purpose functionals with particual focus on surface science. The fitting procedure involves considerations on how to combine different types of data, and applies Tikhonov regularization and bootstrap cross validation. The methodology has been applied to construct GGA and metaGGA functionals with and without inclusion of long-ranged van der Waals contributions. The error estimation is made possible by the generation of not only a single functional but through the construction of a probability distribution of functionals represented by a functional ensemble. The use of the functional ensemble is illustrated on compound heat of formation and by investigations of the reliability of calculated catalytic ammonia synthesis rates.

  11. Effective writing that attracts patients.

    PubMed

    Baum, Neil

    2015-01-01

    Doctors today not only must communicate verbally, they must also realize that the written word is important to their ability to connect with the patients that they already have and also to attract new patients. Doctors will be expected to write blogs, to create content for their Web sites, to write articles for local publications, and even to learn to express themselves in 140 characters or less (i.e., Twitter). This article presents 10 rules for selecting the right words to enhance your communication with existing patients and potentially to attract new patients to your practice.

  12. A closer look at eta Carinae's surprising nitrogen chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordiner, Martin; Jones, Paul; Millar, Tom; Charnley, Steven; Mcelroy, Daniel; Milam, Stefanie

    2013-04-01

    The ejecta of the luminous blue variable (LBV) star eta Carinae has recently been found to be surprisingly rich in simple nitrogen-bearing molecules, and theory predicts that more complex species such as HC3N and CH3CN are abundant in the warm inner regions of the Homunculus. We therefore propose to search for emission from HC3N, CH3CN and other nitrogen-bearing molecules in eta Carinae. We will also map HCN and HNC with unprecedented spatial detail to determine the origin and spatial extent of these species. The proposed observations will be crucial for developing chemical models of this source, which we will use to (1) promote understanding of the chemistry of this star and its mysterious ejecta and (2) provide information on molecule formation around massive stars that are about to undergo Type II supernova explosions.

  13. 29 years of surprises from hotspots: A personal perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Students Of Eao, .; Okal, E. A.

    2003-12-01

    I arrived at Caltech on 26 August 1974, to begin my graduate studies at the Seismo Lab, then under the Directorship of Don L. Anderson. These were the days, among other topics, of Don's famous multilingual footnote on the "definition..., antecedents..., supporters and detractors" of the concept of "plume" [GSA Bull., 86, p. 1593, 1975], and even though I was not to set foot on a hotspot island until my first trip to Tahiti in December 1977 (those stopovers at Keflavik on the 199-dollar Loftleidir runs did not really count), I quickly acquired a mild form of Don's contagious fascination for the activity and structure of hotspots. As a tribute to Don, I have chosen to recap here a few surprising results obtained, with the help of my students, past and present, over several decades of work on the seismological sources and structures in the neighborhood of hotspot islands.

  14. Surprisingly Low Limits of Selection in Plant Domestication

    PubMed Central

    Allaby, Robin G.; Kitchen, James L.; Fuller, Dorian Q.

    2015-01-01

    Current debate concerns the pace at which domesticated plants emerged from cultivated wild populations and how many genes were involved. Using an individual-based model, based on the assumptions of Haldane and Maynard Smith, respectively, we estimate that a surprisingly low number of 50–100 loci are the most that could be under selection in a cultivation regime at the selection strengths observed in the archaeological record. This finding is robust to attempts to rescue populations from extinction through selection from high standing genetic variation, gene flow, and the Maynard Smith-based model of threshold selection. Selective sweeps come at a cost, reducing the capacity of plants to adapt to new environments, which may contribute to the explanation of why selective sweeps have not been detected more frequently and why expansion of the agrarian package during the Neolithic was so frequently associated with collapse. PMID:27081302

  15. Recent surprising similarities between plant cells and neurons

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Plant cells and neurons share several similarities, including non-centrosomal microtubules, motile post-Golgi organelles, separated both spatially/structurally and functionally from the Golgi apparatus and involved in vesicular endocytic recycling, as well as cell-cell adhesion domains based on the actin/myosin cytoskeleton which serve for cell-cell communication. Tip-growing plant cells such as root hairs and pollen tubes also resemble neurons extending their axons. Recently, surprising discoveries have been made with respect to the molecular basis of neurodegenerative disorders known as Hereditary Spastic Paraplegias and tip-growth of root hairs. All these advances are briefly discussed in the context of other similarities between plant cells and neurons. PMID:20150757

  16. Measured Zero Net Energy Performance: Results, Lessons, and Surprises

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Carrie; LaRue, Anna; Pigman, Margaret; Roberts, Jon; Kaneda, David; Connelly, Dylan; Elliott, John; Pless, Shanti; Pande, Abhijeet; Dean, Edward; Anbarlilar, Can

    2016-08-26

    As more and more zero net energy (ZNE) buildings are built and monitored, we can learn from both careful case studies of individual projects as well as a broader perspective of trends over time. In a forum sponsored by Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), eight expert speakers discussed: results and lessons from monitoring occupied ZNE buildings; best practices for setting performance targets and getting actionable performance information, and; things that have surprised them about monitored ZNE buildings. This paper distills the content of the forum by laying out the most common hurdles that are encountered in setting up monitoring projects, frequent performance issues that the monitoring uncovers, and lessons learned that can be applied to future projects.

  17. Deceptive copulation calls attract female visitors to peacock leks.

    PubMed

    Dakin, Roslyn; Montgomerie, Robert

    2014-04-01

    Theory holds that dishonest signaling can be stable if it is rare. We report here that some peacocks perform specialized copulation calls (hoots) when females are not present and the peacocks are clearly not attempting to copulate. Because these solo hoots are almost always given out of view of females, they may be dishonest signals of male mating attempts. These dishonest calls are surprisingly common, making up about a third of all hoot calls in our study populations. Females are more likely to visit males after they give a solo hoot call, and we confirm using a playback experiment that females are attracted to the sound of the hoot. Our findings suggest that both sexes use the hoot call tactically: females to locate potential mates and males to attract female visitors. We suggest that the solo hoot may be a deceptive signal that is acquired and maintained through reward-based learning.

  18. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M.; Streets, D.G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C.H.; Stewart, T.R.

    1998-01-01

    This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.

  19. Sex Attraction in Pear Psylla

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Pear psylla, Cacopsylla pyricola (Förster) (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), a major economic pest of pears, have been shown to use a female-produced sex attractant pheromone. We compared the chemical profiles obtained from solvent extracts of diapausing and post-diapause winterform males and females, with g...

  20. Peer assessment of dental attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Ong, Egle; Brown, Rebecca A; Richmond, Stephen

    2006-08-01

    The objectives of the study were to determine the relative importance of various dental features that contribute to overall dental attractiveness and to test the validity of the concepts of golden proportion and golden percentage as applied to the human dentition. Sixty 30-year-old subjects (29 men, 31 women) were selected from the 20-year longitudinal Cardiff Survey. Color photographs of the subjects' dentitions were taken with the lips retracted so that their teeth and gums were clearly exposed. Twelve nondentists, aged 32 to 33 years, equally divided according to sex, rated the subjects' dental appearances on a 5-point Likert attractiveness scale. The maxillary anterior teeth were measured, and relevant ratios were calculated and compared with the golden proportion. Factor analyses and linear regression were used to investigate the hierarchy of dental features, and variance components analysis was used to estimate interrater agreement. Overall dental attractiveness did not depend on any particular feature of the dentition. A hierarchy of various features was established, with crown shape ranked highest, and tooth and gum color ranked lowest. The golden proportion and the golden percentage were not decisive factors in determining dental attractiveness.

  1. Functional Similarity and Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neimeyer, Greg J.; Neimeyer, Robert A.

    1981-01-01

    Students participated in dyadic disclosure exercises over a five-week period. Results indicated members of high functional similarity dyads evidenced greater attraction to one another than did members of low functional similarity dyads. "Friendship" pairs of male undergraduates displayed greater functional similarity than did…

  2. Olfactory cues modulate facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Demattè, M Luisa; Osterbauer, Robert; Spence, Charles

    2007-07-01

    We report an experiment designed to investigate whether olfactory cues can influence people's judgments of facial attractiveness. Sixteen female participants judged the attractiveness of a series of male faces presented briefly on a computer monitor using a 9-point visual rating scale. While viewing each face, the participants were simultaneously presented with either clean air or else with 1 of 4 odorants (the odor was varied on a trial-by-trial basis) from a custom-built olfactometer. We included 2 pleasant odors (geranium and a male fragrance) and 2 unpleasant odors (rubber and body odor) as confirmed by pilot testing. The results showed that the participants rated the male faces as being significantly less attractive in the presence of an unpleasant odor than when the faces were presented together with a pleasant odor or with clean air (these conditions did not differ significantly). These results demonstrate the cross-modal influence that unpleasant odors can have on people's judgments of facial attractiveness. Interestingly, this pattern of results was unaffected by whether the odors were body relevant (the body odor and the male fragrance) or not (the rubber and geranium odors).

  3. Attracting Birds to Your Backyard.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joyce, Brian

    1994-01-01

    Discusses methods for drawing birds to outdoor education areas, including the use of wild and native vegetation. Lists specific garden plants suitable for attracting birds in each season. Includes a guide to commercial bird seed and instructions for building homemade birdfeeders and nestboxes. (LZ)

  4. Improving transparency and replication in Bayesian statistics: The WAMBS-Checklist.

    PubMed

    Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens

    2017-06-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are slowly creeping into all fields of science and are becoming ever more popular in applied research. Although it is very attractive to use Bayesian statistics, our personal experience has led us to believe that naively applying Bayesian methods can be dangerous for at least 3 main reasons: the potential influence of priors, misinterpretation of Bayesian features and results, and improper reporting of Bayesian results. To deal with these 3 points of potential danger, we have developed a succinct checklist: the WAMBS-checklist (When to worry and how to Avoid the Misuse of Bayesian Statistics). The purpose of the questionnaire is to describe 10 main points that should be thoroughly checked when applying Bayesian analysis. We provide an account of "when to worry" for each of these issues related to: (a) issues to check before estimating the model, (b) issues to check after estimating the model but before interpreting results, (c) understanding the influence of priors, and (d) actions to take after interpreting results. To accompany these key points of concern, we will present diagnostic tools that can be used in conjunction with the development and assessment of a Bayesian model. We also include examples of how to interpret results when "problems" in estimation arise, as well as syntax and instructions for implementation. Our aim is to stress the importance of openness and transparency of all aspects of Bayesian estimation, and it is our hope that the WAMBS questionnaire can aid in this process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Bayesian microsaccade detection

    PubMed Central

    Mihali, Andra; van Opheusden, Bas; Ma, Wei Ji

    2017-01-01

    Microsaccades are high-velocity fixational eye movements, with special roles in perception and cognition. The default microsaccade detection method is to determine when the smoothed eye velocity exceeds a threshold. We have developed a new method, Bayesian microsaccade detection (BMD), which performs inference based on a simple statistical model of eye positions. In this model, a hidden state variable changes between drift and microsaccade states at random times. The eye position is a biased random walk with different velocity distributions for each state. BMD generates samples from the posterior probability distribution over the eye state time series given the eye position time series. Applied to simulated data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with fewer errors than alternative algorithms, especially at high noise. Applied to EyeLink eye tracker data, BMD detects almost all the microsaccades detected by the default method, but also apparent microsaccades embedded in high noise—although these can also be interpreted as false positives. Next we apply the algorithms to data collected with a Dual Purkinje Image eye tracker, whose higher precision justifies defining the inferred microsaccades as ground truth. When we add artificial measurement noise, the inferences of all algorithms degrade; however, at noise levels comparable to EyeLink data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with 54% fewer errors than the default algorithm. Though unsuitable for online detection, BMD has other advantages: It returns probabilities rather than binary judgments, and it can be straightforwardly adapted as the generative model is refined. We make our algorithm available as a software package. PMID:28114483

  6. Maximum margin Bayesian network classifiers.

    PubMed

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael; Tschiatschek, Sebastian

    2012-03-01

    We present a maximum margin parameter learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers using a conjugate gradient (CG) method for optimization. In contrast to previous approaches, we maintain the normalization constraints on the parameters of the Bayesian network during optimization, i.e., the probabilistic interpretation of the model is not lost. This enables us to handle missing features in discriminatively optimized Bayesian networks. In experiments, we compare the classification performance of maximum margin parameter learning to conditional likelihood and maximum likelihood learning approaches. Discriminative parameter learning significantly outperforms generative maximum likelihood estimation for naive Bayes and tree augmented naive Bayes structures on all considered data sets. Furthermore, maximizing the margin dominates the conditional likelihood approach in terms of classification performance in most cases. We provide results for a recently proposed maximum margin optimization approach based on convex relaxation. While the classification results are highly similar, our CG-based optimization is computationally up to orders of magnitude faster. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve classification performance comparable to support vector machines (SVMs) using fewer parameters. Moreover, we show that unanticipated missing feature values during classification can be easily processed by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  7. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  8. Fatal attraction: sexually cannibalistic invaders attract naive native mantids

    PubMed Central

    Fea, Murray P.; Stanley, Margaret C.; Holwell, Gregory I.

    2013-01-01

    Overlap in the form of sexual signals such as pheromones raises the possibility of reproductive interference by invasive species on similar, yet naive native species. Here, we test the potential for reproductive interference through heterospecific mate attraction and subsequent predation of males by females of a sexually cannibalistic invasive praying mantis. Miomantis caffra is invasive in New Zealand, where it is widely considered to be displacing the only native mantis species, Orthodera novaezealandiae, and yet mechanisms behind this displacement are unknown. We demonstrate that native males are more attracted to the chemical cues of introduced females than those of conspecific females. Heterospecific pairings also resulted in a high degree of mortality for native males. This provides evidence for a mechanism behind displacement that has until now been undetected and highlights the potential for reproductive interference to greatly influence the impact of an invasive species. PMID:24284560

  9. Facial attractiveness ratings from video-clips and static images tell the same story.

    PubMed

    Rhodes, Gillian; Lie, Hanne C; Thevaraja, Nishta; Taylor, Libby; Iredell, Natasha; Curran, Christine; Tan, Shi Qin Claire; Carnemolla, Pia; Simmons, Leigh W

    2011-01-01

    Most of what we know about what makes a face attractive and why we have the preferences we do is based on attractiveness ratings of static images of faces, usually photographs. However, several reports that such ratings fail to correlate significantly with ratings made to dynamic video clips, which provide richer samples of appearance, challenge the validity of this literature. Here, we tested the validity of attractiveness ratings made to static images, using a substantial sample of male faces. We found that these ratings agreed very strongly with ratings made to videos of these men, despite the presence of much more information in the videos (multiple views, neutral and smiling expressions and speech-related movements). Not surprisingly, given this high agreement, the components of video-attractiveness were also very similar to those reported previously for static-attractiveness. Specifically, averageness, symmetry and masculinity were all significant components of attractiveness rated from videos. Finally, regression analyses yielded very similar effects of attractiveness on success in obtaining sexual partners, whether attractiveness was rated from videos or static images. These results validate the widespread use of attractiveness ratings made to static images in evolutionary and social psychological research. We speculate that this validity may stem from our tendency to make rapid and robust judgements of attractiveness.

  10. The blue-eyes stereotype: do eye color, pupil diameter, and scleral color affect attractiveness?

    PubMed

    Gründl, Martin; Knoll, Sebastian; Eisenmann-Klein, Marita; Prantl, Lukas

    2012-04-01

    Blue eyes have been the embodiment of attractiveness not only for decades but even for centuries. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether iridal color, particularly color blue, can increase the attractiveness of a person's eye area. As a secondary aim, the study examined the impact of pupil diameter and scleral color on the attractiveness of the eye area. The stimulus material comprised images of the eye areas of 60 women ages 15-65 years. A total of 80 participants rated the attractiveness of each eye area on a 7-point Likert scale and estimated the age of the person. The color values of the iris and sclera were measured. As an additional subsample, 50% of the participants were asked what features of each eye area they found particularly appealing. Most surprisingly, no correlation was found between iridal color and rated attractiveness. However, the participants mentioned the color blue more often as a positive aspect than other iridal colors. A high inverse correlation was observed between attractiveness of the eye area and age. The larger the pupil diameter and the whiter the scleral color, the lower was the real and perceived age and the higher was the attractiveness. The data showed that the "blue-eyes stereotype" does exist. People consider blue eyes attractive, but in reality, blue is rated as attractive as other iridal colors. Bright scleral color and large pupils positively affect attractiveness because both features are significantly correlated with youthfulness.

  11. Facial Attractiveness Ratings from Video-Clips and Static Images Tell the Same Story

    PubMed Central

    Rhodes, Gillian; Lie, Hanne C.; Thevaraja, Nishta; Taylor, Libby; Iredell, Natasha; Curran, Christine; Tan, Shi Qin Claire; Carnemolla, Pia; Simmons, Leigh W.

    2011-01-01

    Most of what we know about what makes a face attractive and why we have the preferences we do is based on attractiveness ratings of static images of faces, usually photographs. However, several reports that such ratings fail to correlate significantly with ratings made to dynamic video clips, which provide richer samples of appearance, challenge the validity of this literature. Here, we tested the validity of attractiveness ratings made to static images, using a substantial sample of male faces. We found that these ratings agreed very strongly with ratings made to videos of these men, despite the presence of much more information in the videos (multiple views, neutral and smiling expressions and speech-related movements). Not surprisingly, given this high agreement, the components of video-attractiveness were also very similar to those reported previously for static-attractiveness. Specifically, averageness, symmetry and masculinity were all significant components of attractiveness rated from videos. Finally, regression analyses yielded very similar effects of attractiveness on success in obtaining sexual partners, whether attractiveness was rated from videos or static images. These results validate the widespread use of attractiveness ratings made to static images in evolutionary and social psychological research. We speculate that this validity may stem from our tendency to make rapid and robust judgements of attractiveness. PMID:22096491

  12. Physical attractiveness and reproductive success in humans: Evidence from the late 20 century United States.

    PubMed

    Jokela, Markus

    2009-09-01

    Physical attractiveness has been associated with mating behavior, but its role in reproductive success of contemporary humans has received surprisingly little attention. In the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (1244 women, 997 men born between 1937 and 1940) we examined whether attractiveness assessed from photographs taken at age ~18 predicted the number of biological children at age 53-56. In women, attractiveness predicted higher reproductive success in a nonlinear fashion, so that attractive (second highest quartile) women had 16% and very attractive (highest quartile) women 6% more children than their less attractive counterparts. In men, there was a threshold effect so that men in the lowest attractiveness quartile had 13% fewer children than others who did not differ from each other in the average number of children. These associations were partly but not completely accounted for by attractive participants' increased marriage probability. A linear regression analysis indicated relatively weak directional selection gradient for attractiveness (β=0.06 in women, β=0.07 in men). These findings indicate that physical attractiveness may be associated with reproductive success in humans living in industrialized settings.

  13. Discovery of mosquito attractants and attraction-inhibitors invited talk on attractants and repellents

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has developed repellents and insecticides for the U.S. military since 1942. A small component of this research program has aimed at the discovery of attractants that can be used to produce potent lures for haematophagous arthropods, with a primary f...

  14. Bayesian computation via empirical likelihood

    PubMed Central

    Mengersen, Kerrie L.; Pudlo, Pierre; Robert, Christian P.

    2013-01-01

    Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models. PMID:23297233

  15. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  16. An Extended Bayesian-FBP Algorithm.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Gengsheng L; Divkovic, Zeljko

    2016-02-01

    Recently we developed a Bayesian-FBP (Filtered Backprojection) algorithm for CT image reconstruction. This algorithm is also referred to as the FBP-MAP (FBP Maximum a Posteriori) algorithm. This non-iterative Bayesian algorithm has been applied to real-time MRI, in which the k-space is under-sampled. This current paper investigates the possibility to extend this Bayesian-FBP algorithm by introducing more controlling parameters. Thus, our original Bayesian-FBP algorithm became a special case of the extended Bayesian-FBP algorithm. A cardiac patient data set is used in this paper to evaluate the extended Bayesian-FBP algorithm, and the result from a well-establish iterative algorithm with L1-norms is used as the gold standard. If the parameters are selected properly, the extended Bayesian-FBP algorithm can outperform the original Bayesian-FBP algorithm.

  17. Introduction to Bayesian modelling in dental research.

    PubMed

    Gilthorpe, M S; Maddick, I H; Petrie, A

    2000-12-01

    To explain the concepts and application of Bayesian modelling and how it can be applied to the analysis of dental research data. Methodological in nature, this article introduces Bayesian modelling through hypothetical dental examples. The synthesis of RCT results with previous evidence, including expert opinion, is used to illustrate full Bayesian modelling. Meta-analysis, in the form of empirical Bayesian modelling, is introduced. An example of full Bayesian modelling is described for the synthesis of evidence from several studies that investigate the success of root canal treatment. Hierarchical (Bayesian) modelling is demonstrated for a survey of childhood caries, where surface data is nested within subjects. Bayesian methods enhance interpretation of research evidence through the synthesis of information from multiple sources. Bayesian modelling is now readily accessible to clinical researchers and is able to augment the application of clinical decision making in the development of guidelines and clinical practice.

  18. Bayesian anatomy of galaxy structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Ilsang

    In this thesis I develop Bayesian approach to model galaxy surface brightness and apply it to a bulge-disc decomposition analysis of galaxies in near-infrared band, from Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS). The thesis has three main parts. First part is a technical development of Bayesian galaxy image decomposition package GALPHAT based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. I implement a fast and accurate galaxy model image generation algorithm to reduce computation time and make Bayesian approach feasible for real science analysis using large ensemble of galaxies. I perform a benchmark test of G ALPHAT and demonstrate significant improvement in parameter estimation with a correct statistical confidence. Second part is a performance test for full Bayesian application to galaxy bulge-disc decomposition analysis including not only the parameter estimation but also the model comparison to classify different galaxy population. The test demonstrates that GALPHAT has enough statistical power to make a reliable model inference using galaxy photometric survey data. Bayesian prior update is also tested for parameter estimation and Bayes factor model comparison and it shows that informative prior significantly improves the model inference in every aspects. Last part is a Bayesian bulge-disc decomposition analysis using 2MASS Ks-band selected samples. I characterise the luminosity distributions in spheroids, bulges and discs separately in the local Universe and study the galaxy morphology correlation, by full utilizing the ensemble parameter posterior of the entire galaxy samples. It shows that to avoid a biased inference, the parameter covariance and model degeneracy has to be carefully characterized by the full probability distribution.

  19. Acoustics and vibration animations: A surprisingly successful website

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, Daniel

    2003-10-01

    For the past 8 years the author has been creating mathematically and physically correct computer animations for use in teaching acoustics to advanced undergraduate engineering and science majors [D. Russell, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 106, 2197 (1999)]. Compiling these animations, along with supporting text, on a web site (http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html) has resulted in a surprising response from students, teachers, and professionals who have found the animations useful for their own presentations, study, or courses. Unsolicited recognition in the form of web awards and coverage in magazines adds weight to the usefulness of well-made animations for conveying difficult concepts to a wide audience. This presentation will showcase as many of the animations as possible, especially newer ones, including: oscillation, wave superposition, reflection and refraction, particle motion for various wave types, radiation from simple and complex sources, room modes, waves on strings and membranes, bending waves and boundary conditions, and the vibration of guitars and baseball bats. If time permits, some of the methods used to create the animations will be shared.

  20. Surprisingly Rapid Orbital Evolution: A Compendium of Solar Type Binaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samec, Ronald George

    2015-08-01

    Solar type binaries are believed to be undergoing steady but slow angular momentum losses due to magnetic braking (Réville et al. 2015, Jiang et al. 2014) as stellar winds leave radially away on semi-rigid (out to the Alfvén radius) bipolar field lines: There is an outward radial flow of ions along the rotating magnetic fields. This is happening simultaneously as the gravitationally locked binary rotates about its center of mass. The stream of ions spiral outward resulting in a resistant torque, causing a decay in the orbital radius along with a period decrease due to Kepler’s laws. My past studies have included more than 25 binaries that appear to be undergoing magnetic braking. I have extended the number of systems to 75+ in this group by perusing the literature of modern precision synthetic light curve studies. Several interesting facts arise including their surprisingly rapid orbital evolution, much faster than would be suggested by the theory. Further results are presented in this study.

  1. Atom Surprise: Using Theatre in Primary Science Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peleg, Ran; Baram-Tsabari, Ayelet

    2011-10-01

    Early exposure to science may have a lifelong effect on children's attitudes towards science and their motivation to learn science in later life. Out-of-class environments can play a significant role in creating favourable attitudes, while contributing to conceptual learning. Educational science theatre is one form of an out-of-class environment, which has received little research attention. This study aims to describe affective and cognitive learning outcomes of watching such a play and to point to connections between theatrical elements and specific outcomes. "Atom Surprise" is a play portraying several concepts on the topic of matter. A mixed methods approach was adopted to investigate the knowledge and attitudes of children (grades 1-6) from two different school settings who watched the play. Data were gathered using questionnaires and in-depth interviews. Analysis suggested that in both schools children's knowledge on the topic of matter increased after the play with younger children gaining more conceptual knowledge than their older peers. In the public school girls showed greater gains in conceptual knowledge than boys. No significant changes in students' general attitudes towards science were found, however, students demonstrated positive changes towards science learning. Theatrical elements that seemed to be important in children's recollection of the play were the narrative, props and stage effects, and characters. In the children's memory, science was intertwined with the theatrical elements. Nonetheless, children could distinguish well between scientific facts and the fictive narrative.

  2. Surprises From Genetic Analyses of Lipid Risk Factors for Atherosclerosis.

    PubMed

    Musunuru, Kiran; Kathiresan, Sekar

    2016-02-19

    Observational epidemiological studies have associated plasma lipid concentrations with risk for coronary heart disease (CHD), but these studies cannot distinguish cause from mere correlation. Human genetic studies, when considered with the results of randomized controlled trials of medications, can potentially shed light on whether lipid biomarkers are causal for diseases. Genetic analyses and randomized trials suggest that low-density lipoprotein is causal for CHD, whereas high-density lipoprotein is not. Surprisingly, human genetic evidence suggests that lipoprotein(a) and triglyceride-rich lipoproteins causally contribute to CHD. Gene variants leading to higher levels of plasma apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins [low-density lipoprotein, triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, or lipoprotein(a)] consistently increase risk for CHD. For triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, the most compelling evidence revolves around lipoprotein lipase and its endogenous facilitator (APOA5 [apolipoprotein A-V]) and inhibitory proteins (APOC3 [apolipoprotein C-III], ANGPTL4 [angiopoietin like 4]). Combined, these genetic results anticipate that, beyond low-density lipoprotein, pharmacological lowering of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins or lipoprotein(a) will reduce risk for CHD, but this remains to be proven through randomized controlled trials. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  3. Surprisingly Simple Mechanical Behavior of a Complex Embryonic Tissue

    PubMed Central

    von Dassow, Michelangelo; Strother, James A.; Davidson, Lance A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Previous studies suggest that mechanical feedback could coordinate morphogenetic events in embryos. Furthermore, embryonic tissues have complex structure and composition and undergo large deformations during morphogenesis. Hence we expect highly non-linear and loading-rate dependent tissue mechanical properties in embryos. Methodology/Principal Findings We used micro-aspiration to test whether a simple linear viscoelastic model was sufficient to describe the mechanical behavior of gastrula stage Xenopus laevis embryonic tissue in vivo. We tested whether these embryonic tissues change their mechanical properties in response to mechanical stimuli but found no evidence of changes in the viscoelastic properties of the tissue in response to stress or stress application rate. We used this model to test hypotheses about the pattern of force generation during electrically induced tissue contractions. The dependence of contractions on suction pressure was most consistent with apical tension, and was inconsistent with isotropic contraction. Finally, stiffer clutches generated stronger contractions, suggesting that force generation and stiffness may be coupled in the embryo. Conclusions/Significance The mechanical behavior of a complex, active embryonic tissue can be surprisingly well described by a simple linear viscoelastic model with power law creep compliance, even at high deformations. We found no evidence of mechanical feedback in this system. Together these results show that very simple mechanical models can be useful in describing embryo mechanics. PMID:21203396

  4. Surprising connections: the diverse world of magnetic resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Callaghan, Paul

    2004-10-01

    When Rutherford discovered the atomic nucleus he could not possibly have imagined that it might be a window to understanding molecular biology, or how the brain works. And yet so it has come to pass. It is the through the magnetism of the nucleus that these insights, and so much more, are possible. The phenomenon of ``Nuclear Magnetic Resonance'' has proven an essential tool in physics, it has revolutionised chemistry and biochemistry, it has made astonishing contributions to medicine, and is now making an impact in geophysics, chemical engineering and food technology. It is even finding applications in new security technologies and in testing fundamental ideas concerning quantum computing. But the story of Magnetic Resonance is much more than the application of a well-established method to new areas of science. The technique itself continues to evolve. Magnetic Resonance has now garnered 6 Nobel prizes, two of them in the last two years. For a technique that has been around for nearly 60 years, it is really quite extraordinary that such accolades are still being given to new developments in the methodology. This talk will explain why the nuclear spin is so ubiquitous and interdisciplinary, and so rich in its fundamental physics. It will illustrate how unpredictable and surprising are the consequences of a major scientific discovery. For funding agencies determined to direct research activities towards predicted benefits, the conclusion drawn may provide a salutary lesson.

  5. A Well-Known But Still Surprising Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haugland, Ole Anton

    2014-12-01

    The bicycle generator is often mentioned as an example of a method to produce electric energy. It is cheap and easily accessible, so it is a natural example to use in teaching. There are different types, but I prefer the old side-wall dynamo. The most common explanation of its working principle seems to be something like the illustration in Fig. 1. The illustration is taken from a popular textbook in the Norwegian junior high school.1 Typically it is explained as a system of a moving magnet or coils that directly results in a varying magnetic field through the coils. According to Faraday's law a voltage is induced in the coils. Simple and easy! A few times I have had a chance to glimpse into a bicycle generator, and I was somewhat surprised to sense that the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil. How could the flux through the coil change and induce a voltage when the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil? When teaching electromagnetic induction I have showed the students a dismantled generator and asked them how this could work. They naturally found that this was more difficult to understand than the principle illustrated in Fig. 1. Other authors in this journal have discussed even more challenging questions concerning electric generators.2,3

  6. Tetrasomic Recombination Is Surprisingly Frequent in Allotetraploid Arachis

    PubMed Central

    Leal-Bertioli, Soraya; Shirasawa, Kenta; Abernathy, Brian; Moretzsohn, Marcio; Chavarro, Carolina; Clevenger, Josh; Ozias-Akins, Peggy; Jackson, Scott; Bertioli, David

    2015-01-01

    Arachis hypogaea L. (cultivated peanut) is an allotetraploid (2n = 4x = 40) with an AABB genome type. Based on cytogenetic studies it has been assumed that peanut and wild-derived induced AABB allotetraploids have classic allotetraploid genetic behavior with diploid-like disomic recombination only between homologous chromosomes, at the exclusion of recombination between homeologous chromosomes. Using this assumption, numerous linkage map and quantitative trait loci studies have been carried out. Here, with a systematic analysis of genotyping and gene expression data, we show that this assumption is not entirely valid. In fact, autotetraploid-like tetrasomic recombination is surprisingly frequent in recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of cultivated peanut and an induced allotetraploid derived from peanut’s most probable ancestral species. We suggest that a better, more predictive genetic model for peanut is that of a “segmental allotetraploid” with partly disomic, partly tetrasomic genetic behavior. This intermediate genetic behavior has probably had a previously overseen, but significant, impact on the genome and genetics of cultivated peanut. PMID:25701284

  7. The surprising diversity of clostridial hydrogenases: a comparative genomic perspective.

    PubMed

    Calusinska, Magdalena; Happe, Thomas; Joris, Bernard; Wilmotte, Annick

    2010-06-01

    Among the large variety of micro-organisms capable of fermentative hydrogen production, strict anaerobes such as members of the genus Clostridium are the most widely studied. They can produce hydrogen by a reversible reduction of protons accumulated during fermentation to dihydrogen, a reaction which is catalysed by hydrogenases. Sequenced genomes provide completely new insights into the diversity of clostridial hydrogenases. Building on previous reports, we found that [FeFe] hydrogenases are not a homogeneous group of enzymes, but exist in multiple forms with different modular structures and are especially abundant in members of the genus Clostridium. This unusual diversity seems to support the central role of hydrogenases in cell metabolism. In particular, the presence of multiple putative operons encoding multisubunit [FeFe] hydrogenases highlights the fact that hydrogen metabolism is very complex in this genus. In contrast with [FeFe] hydrogenases, their [NiFe] hydrogenase counterparts, widely represented in other bacteria and archaea, are found in only a few clostridial species. Surprisingly, a heteromultimeric Ech hydrogenase, known to be an energy-converting [NiFe] hydrogenase and previously described only in methanogenic archaea and some sulfur-reducing bacteria, was found to be encoded by the genomes of four cellulolytic strains: Clostridum cellulolyticum, Clostridum papyrosolvens, Clostridum thermocellum and Clostridum phytofermentans.

  8. The attraction of Brazil nuts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, D. A.; Swift, M. R.; Bowley, R. M.; King, P. J.

    2006-02-01

    Simulations of intruder particles in a vertically vibrated granular bed suggest that neutrally-buoyant intruders are attracted to one another (Phys. Rev. Lett., 93 (2004) 208002). The simulations, however, ignore important physical effects such as friction and convection which are known to influence intruder behaviour. Here, we present experimental evidence for this intruder-intruder interaction, obtained by monitoring the position of neutrally-buoyant metallic disks in a vibrated bed of glass spheres. An effective long-range attraction is shown to exist between a pair of intruders for a range of driving conditions. If further intruder particles are added, a tightly bound cluster of intruders can form. These results highlight the difficulty of retaining well-mixed granular beds under vertical vibration.

  9. Fingertip aura and interpersonal attraction.

    PubMed

    Murstein, B I; Hadjolian, S E

    1977-06-01

    Concluding from our survey of the literature that fingertip auras (Kirlian effect) might be associated with interpersonal attraction, four hypotheses were advanced to test this assertion. It was hypothesized that individuals would respond with bigger auras to (1) opposite-sex photographers as compared to same-sex photographers, (2) to seductive opposite-sex photographers as opposed to normally behaving opposite-sex photographers, (3) to opposite-sex unknown peers as opposed to same-sex unknown peers, and (4) to liked as opposed to disliked same-sex persons. All hypotheses except (2) were supported. The second hypothesis was significant in a direction contrary to hypothesis. Fingertip auras are seen as a promising measurement device in the study of interpersonal attraction.

  10. Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research

    PubMed Central

    Little, Anthony C.; Jones, Benedict C.; DeBruine, Lisa M.

    2011-01-01

    Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners. PMID:21536551

  11. Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research.

    PubMed

    Little, Anthony C; Jones, Benedict C; DeBruine, Lisa M

    2011-06-12

    Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners.

  12. Panel perception of facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Kerr, W J; O'Donnell, J M

    1990-11-01

    The full-face and profile photographic transparencies of 60 subjects (30 male, 30 female) divided equally among Angles Class I, Class II Division 1, and Class III malocclusions, taken before and after orthodontic treatment, were randomly distributed in projector carousels and shown to four panels consisting of orthodontists, dental students, art students, and the parents of children undergoing orthodontic treatment. The faces were rated according to the method of Lundstrom et al. (1987). Full-face views generally were rated more attractive than profile views and Class II and Class III malocclusion subjects were rated lower than Class I malocclusion subjects. While the art student and parent panels were less critical in their appraisal of facial attractiveness, they were less sensitive to the changes brought about by orthodontic treatment than the orthodontist and dental student panels, although all could appreciate an improvement in the Class II Division 1 group.

  13. Frequentist accuracy of Bayesian estimates

    PubMed Central

    Efron, Bradley

    2014-01-01

    In the absence of relevant prior experience, popular Bayesian estimation techniques usually begin with some form of “uninformative” prior distribution intended to have minimal inferential influence. Bayes rule will still produce nice-looking estimates and credible intervals, but these lack the logical force attached to experience-based priors and require further justification. This paper concerns the frequentist assessment of Bayes estimates. A simple formula is shown to give the frequentist standard deviation of a Bayesian point estimate. The same simulations required for the point estimate also produce the standard deviation. Exponential family models make the calculations particularly simple, and bring in a connection to the parametric bootstrap. PMID:26089740

  14. Perception, illusions and Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Nour, Matthew M; Nour, Joseph M

    2015-01-01

    Descriptive psychopathology makes a distinction between veridical perception and illusory perception. In both cases a perception is tied to a sensory stimulus, but in illusions the perception is of a false object. This article re-examines this distinction in light of new work in theoretical and computational neurobiology, which views all perception as a form of Bayesian statistical inference that combines sensory signals with prior expectations. Bayesian perceptual inference can solve the 'inverse optics' problem of veridical perception and provides a biologically plausible account of a number of illusory phenomena, suggesting that veridical and illusory perceptions are generated by precisely the same inferential mechanisms.

  15. Can Pensions Help Attract Teachers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kimball, Steven M.; Heneman, Herbert G.,III; Kellor, Eileen M.

    2005-01-01

    Every year there is a substantial flow of people into teaching roles as entrants or as movers from one school to another. Each such move involves attraction of the person to the job. Data for 1999-2000 reveal several important findings about teacher staffing. In 1999-2000, out of a teaching workforce of about 3.45 million, there were about 535,000…

  16. Can Pensions Help Attract Teachers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kimball, Steven M.; Heneman, Herbert G.,III; Kellor, Eileen M.

    2005-01-01

    Every year there is a substantial flow of people into teaching roles as entrants or as movers from one school to another. Each such move involves attraction of the person to the job. Data for 1999-2000 reveal several important findings about teacher staffing. In 1999-2000, out of a teaching workforce of about 3.45 million, there were about 535,000…

  17. Pyrazines Attract Catocheilus Thynnine Wasps.

    PubMed

    Bohman, Bjorn; Peakall, Rod

    2014-06-19

    Five previously identified semiochemicals from the sexually deceptive Western Australian hammer orchid Drakaea livida, all showing electrophysiological activity in gas chromatography-electroantennogram detection (EAD) studies, were tested in field bioassays as attractants for a Catocheilus thynnine wasp. Two of these compounds, (3,5,6-trimethylpyrazin-2-yl)methyl 3-methylbutanoate and 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, were attractive to male wasps. Additionally, the semiochemical 3-(3-methylbutyl)-2,5-dimethylpyrazine, a close analogue to 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, identified in five other species of thynnine wasps, was equally active. The three remaining compounds from D. livida, which were EAD-active against Catocheilus, did not attract the insects in field trials. It is interesting that two structurally similar compounds induce similar behaviours in field experiments, yet only one of these compounds is present in the orchid flower. Our findings suggest the possibility that despite the high specificity normally characterising sex pheromone systems, the evolution of sexual deception may not be entirely constrained by the need to precisely match the sex pheromone constituents and blends. Such evolutionary flexibility may be particularly important during the early stages of speciation.

  18. Pyrazines Attract Catocheilus Thynnine Wasps

    PubMed Central

    Bohman, Bjorn; Peakall, Rod

    2014-01-01

    Five previously identified semiochemicals from the sexually deceptive Western Australian hammer orchid Drakaea livida, all showing electrophysiological activity in gas chromatography–electroantennogram detection (EAD) studies, were tested in field bioassays as attractants for a Catocheilus thynnine wasp. Two of these compounds, (3,5,6-trimethylpyrazin-2-yl)methyl 3-methylbutanoate and 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, were attractive to male wasps. Additionally, the semiochemical 3-(3-methylbutyl)-2,5-dimethylpyrazine, a close analogue to 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, identified in five other species of thynnine wasps, was equally active. The three remaining compounds from D. livida, which were EAD-active against Catocheilus, did not attract the insects in field trials. It is interesting that two structurally similar compounds induce similar behaviours in field experiments, yet only one of these compounds is present in the orchid flower. Our findings suggest the possibility that despite the high specificity normally characterising sex pheromone systems, the evolution of sexual deception may not be entirely constrained by the need to precisely match the sex pheromone constituents and blends. Such evolutionary flexibility may be particularly important during the early stages of speciation. PMID:26462695

  19. Male facial anthropometry and attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Soler, Caries; Kekäläinen, Jukka; Núñez, Manuel; Sancho, María; Núñez, Javier; Yaber, Iván; Gutiérrez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    The symmetry and masculinity of the face are often considered important elements of male facial attractiveness. However, facial preferences are rarely studied on natural faces. We studied the effect of these traits and facial metric parameters on facial attractiveness in Spanish and Colombian raters. In total, 13 metric and 11 asymmetry parameters from natural, unmanipulated frontal face photographs of 50 Spanish men were measured with the USIA semiautomatic anthropometric software. All raters (women and men) were asked to rank these images as potential long-term partners for females. In both sexes, facial attractiveness was negatively associated with facial masculinity, and preference was not associated with facial symmetry. In Spanish raters, both sexes preferred male traits that were larger in the right side of the face, which may reflect a human tendency to prefer a certain degree of facial asymmetry. We did not find such preference in Colombian raters, but they did show stronger preference for facial femininity than Spanish raters. Present results suggest that facial relative femininity, which is expected to signal, eg good parenting and cooperation skills, may be an important signal of mate quality when females seek long-term partners. Facial symmetry appears unimportant in such long-term mating preferences.

  20. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  1. Bayesian Statistics: A Place in Educational Research?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diamond, James

    The use of Bayesian statistics as the basis of classical analysis of data is described. Bayesian analysis is a set of procedures for changing opinions about a given phenomenon based upon rational observation of a set of data. The Bayesian arrives at a set of prior beliefs regarding some states of nature; he observes data in a study and then…

  2. A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2009-01-01

    A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are…

  3. A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2009-01-01

    A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are…

  4. Surprising behaviors in the temperature dependent kinetics of diatomic interhalogens with anions and cations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shuman, Nicholas S.; Martinez, Oscar; Ard, Shaun G.; Wiens, Justin P.; Keyes, Nicholas R.; Guo, Hua; Viggiano, Albert A.

    2017-06-01

    Rate constants and product branching fractions of reactions between diatomic interhalogens (ICl, ClF) and a series of anions (Br-, I-) and cations (Ar+, N2+) are measured using a selected ion flow tube apparatus and reported over the temperature range 200-500 K. The efficiency of both anion reactions with ICl is 2%-3% at 300 K to yield Cl-, increasing with temperature in a manner consistent with the small endothermicities of the reactions. The anion reactions with ClF are 10%-20% efficient at 300 K to yield Cl- and also show a positive temperature dependence despite being highly exothermic. The stationary points along the anion + ClF reaction coordinates were calculated using density functional theory, showing no endothermic barriers inhibiting reaction. The observed temperature dependence can be rationalized by a decreasing dipole attraction with increasing rotational energy, but confirmation requires trajectory calculations of the systems. All four cation reactions are fairly efficient at 300 K with small positive temperature dependences, despite large exothermicities to charge transfer. Three of the four reactions proceed exclusively by dissociative charge transfer to yield Cl+. The N2+ + ClF reaction proceeds by both non-dissociative and dissociative charge transfer, with the non-dissociative channel surprisingly increasing with increasing temperature. The origins of these behaviors are not clear and are discussed within the framework of charge-transfer reactions.

  5. Mcl-1-Bim complexes accommodate surprising point mutations via minor structural changes

    SciTech Connect

    Fire, Emiko; Gullá, Stefano V.; Grant, Robert A.; Keating, Amy E.

    2010-06-25

    Mcl-1 is an antiapoptotic Bcl-2-family protein that protects cells against death. Structures of Mcl-1, and of other anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 proteins, reveal a surface groove into which the {alpha}-helical BH3 regions of certain proapoptotic proteins can bind. Despite high overall structural conservation, differences in this groove afford binding specificity that is important for the mechanism of Bcl-2 family function. We report the crystal structure of human Mcl-1 bound to a BH3 peptide derived from human Bim and the structures for three complexes that accommodate large physicochemical changes at conserved Bim sites. The mutations had surprisingly modest effects on complex stability, and the structures show that Mcl-1 can undergo small changes to accommodate the mutant ligands. For example, a shift in a leucine side chain fills a hole left by an isoleucine-to-alanine mutation at the first hydrophobic buried position of Bim BH3. Larger changes are also observed, with shifting of helix {alpha}3 accommodating an isoleucine-to-tyrosine mutation at this same position. We surveyed the variation in available Mcl-1 and Bcl-x{sub L} structures and observed moderate flexibility that is likely critical for facilitating interactions of diverse BH3-only proteins with Mcl-1. With the antiapoptotic Bcl-2 family members attracting significant attention as therapeutic targets, these structures contribute to our growing understanding of how specificity is achieved and can help to guide the design of novel inhibitors that target Mcl-1.

  6. Mcl-1–Bim complexes accommodate surprising point mutations via minor structural changes

    PubMed Central

    Fire, Emiko; Gullá, Stefano V; Grant, Robert A; Keating, Amy E

    2010-01-01

    Mcl-1 is an antiapoptotic Bcl-2-family protein that protects cells against death. Structures of Mcl-1, and of other anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 proteins, reveal a surface groove into which the α-helical BH3 regions of certain proapoptotic proteins can bind. Despite high overall structural conservation, differences in this groove afford binding specificity that is important for the mechanism of Bcl-2 family function. We report the crystal structure of human Mcl-1 bound to a BH3 peptide derived from human Bim and the structures for three complexes that accommodate large physicochemical changes at conserved Bim sites. The mutations had surprisingly modest effects on complex stability, and the structures show that Mcl-1 can undergo small changes to accommodate the mutant ligands. For example, a shift in a leucine side chain fills a hole left by an isoleucine-to-alanine mutation at the first hydrophobic buried position of Bim BH3. Larger changes are also observed, with shifting of helix α3 accommodating an isoleucine-to-tyrosine mutation at this same position. We surveyed the variation in available Mcl-1 and Bcl-xL structures and observed moderate flexibility that is likely critical for facilitating interactions of diverse BH3-only proteins with Mcl-1. With the antiapoptotic Bcl-2 family members attracting significant attention as therapeutic targets, these structures contribute to our growing understanding of how specificity is achieved and can help to guide the design of novel inhibitors that target Mcl-1. PMID:20066663

  7. Bayesian Estimation and Testing in Random Effects Meta-analysis of Rare Binary Adverse Events.

    PubMed

    Bai, Ou; Chen, Min; Wang, Xinlei

    Meta-analysis has been widely applied to rare adverse event data because it is very difficult to reliably detect the effect of a treatment on such events in an individual clinical study. However, it is known that standard meta-analysis methods are often biased, especially when the background incidence rate is very low. A recent work by Bhaumik et al. (2012) proposed new moment-based approaches under a natural random effects model, to improve estimation and testing of the treatment effect and the between-study heterogeneity parameter. It has been demonstrated that for rare binary events, their methods have superior performance to commonly-used meta-analysis methods. However, their comparison does not include any Bayesian methods, although Bayesian approaches are a natural and attractive choice under the random-effects model. In this paper, we study a Bayesian hierarchical approach to estimation and testing in meta-analysis of rare binary events using the random effects model in Bhaumik et al. (2012). We develop Bayesian estimators of the treatment effect and the heterogeneity parameter, as well as hypothesis testing methods based on Bayesian model selection procedures. We compare them with the existing methods through simulation. A data example is provided to illustrate the Bayesian approach as well.

  8. Individual differences in valuing mates' physical attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Mathes, Eugene W; Bielser, Abby; Cassell, Ticcarra; Summers, Sarah; Witowski, Aggie

    2006-10-01

    To investigate correlates of valuing physical attractiveness in a mate, it was hypothesized that valuing physical attractiveness in a mate would correlate with sex and valuing promiscuous sex, status, personal physical attractiveness, beauty, and order. Men and women college students completed measures of the extent to which they valued physical attractiveness in a mate and other variables. Valuing physical attractiveness in a mate was correlated with sex (men valued physical attractiveness in a mate more than did women) and valuing promiscuous sex and status, and, for women, valuing personal physical attractiveness. The results were explained in terms of evolutionary theory.

  9. Dracunculiasis eradication--finishing the job before surprises arise.

    PubMed

    Visser, Benjamin Jelle

    2012-07-01

    Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) is a preventable waterborne parasitic disease that affects the poorest people living in remote rural areas in sub-Saharan African countries, who do not have access to safe drinking water. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program, a 25-year old campaign to rid the world of Guinea Worm disease has now reached its final stage accelerating to zero cases in all endemic countries. During the 19th and 20th centuries, dracunculiasis was common in much of Southern Asia and the African continent. The overall number of cases has been reduced tremendously by ≥99%, from the 3.32 million cases estimated to have occurred in 1986 in Africa to only 1,797 cases reported in 2010 reported in only five countries (Sudan, Mali, Ethiopia, Chad and Ghana) and Asia free of the disease. This achievement is unique in its kind--the only previously eradicated disease is smallpox, a viral infection for which vaccination was possible--and it has been achieved through primary community-based prevention and health education programs. Most efforts need to be taken in two countries, South Sudan (comprising 94% or 1,698 out of 1,797 of the cases reported world-wide in 2010) and Mali because of frequent movements of nomads in a vast area inside and outside Mali's borders. All factors favourable to dracunculiasis eradication are available including adequate financial resources, community and political support and high levels of advocacy. Thus there is no reason that this disabling parasitic disease cannot be eradicated soon before surprises arise such as new civil conflicts in currently endemic countries.

  10. Properties and Surprises of Solar Activity XXIII Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishkov, V. N.

    2010-12-01

    The main properties of the 23rd cycle match almost completely those of average-magnitude solar cycles, and some of the features of the cycle may indicate a change in the generation mode of magnetic fields in the solar convection zone. If this is the case, the Sun enters a period of intermediate and weak cycles of solar activity (SA) in terms of the Wolf number, which may last for 3 to 6 solar cycles. The main development stages of solar cycle 23 are the following: minimum of solar cycle 22: April 1996 (W* = 8.0); maximum of the smoothed relative sunspot number: April 2000; global polarity reversal of the general solar magnetic field: July to December 2000; secondary maximum of the relative sunspot number: November 2001; maximum of the 10.7-cm radio flux: February 2002; phase of the cycle maximum: October 1999 to June 2002; beginning of the decrease phase: July 2002; the point of minimum of the current SA cycle: December 2008. Solar cycle 23 has presented two powerful flare-active sunspot groups, in September 2005 and December 2006 (+5.5 and +6.6 years from the maximum) which by flare potential occupy 4th and 20th place among the most flare-active regions for the last four solar cycles. The unprecedented duration of the relative sunspot numbers fall that has led to already record duration of the last solar cycle among authentic cycles (since 1849) became the next surprise of development of solar activity during the last cycle. The phase of the minimum began in May 2005 and lasted for 4.5 years. Thus, the new solar cycle 24 has begun in January 2009.

  11. Design and analysis of Bayesian adaptive crossover trials for evaluating contact lens safety and efficacy.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Quan; Toubouti, Youssef; Carlin, Bradley P

    2017-06-01

    A crossover study, also referred to as a crossover trial, is a form of longitudinal study. Subjects are randomly assigned to different arms of the study and receive different treatments sequentially. While there are many frequentist methods to analyze data from a crossover study, random effects models for longitudinal data are perhaps most naturally modeled within a Bayesian framework. In this article, we introduce a Bayesian adaptive approach to crossover studies for both efficacy and safety endpoints using Gibbs sampling. Using simulation, we find our approach can detect a true difference between two treatments with a specific false-positive rate that we can readily control via the standard equal-tail posterior credible interval. We then illustrate our Bayesian approaches using real data from Johnson & Johnson Vision Care, Inc. contact lens studies. We then design a variety of Bayesian adaptive predictive probability crossover studies for single and multiple continuous efficacy endpoints, indicate their extension to binary safety endpoints, and investigate their frequentist operating characteristics via simulation. The Bayesian adaptive approach emerges as a crossover trials tool that is useful yet surprisingly overlooked to date, particularly in contact lens development.

  12. Fast Gibbs sampling for high-dimensional Bayesian inversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucka, Felix

    2016-11-01

    Solving ill-posed inverse problems by Bayesian inference has recently attracted considerable attention. Compared to deterministic approaches, the probabilistic representation of the solution by the posterior distribution can be exploited to explore and quantify its uncertainties. In applications where the inverse solution is subject to further analysis procedures can be a significant advantage. Alongside theoretical progress, various new computational techniques allow us to sample very high dimensional posterior distributions: in (Lucka 2012 Inverse Problems 28 125012), and a Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior sampler was developed for linear inverse problems with {{\\ell }}1-type priors. In this article, we extend this single component (SC) Gibbs-type sampler to a wide range of priors used in Bayesian inversion, such as general {{\\ell }}pq priors with additional hard constraints. In addition, a fast computation of the conditional, SC densities in an explicit, parameterized form, a fast, robust and exact sampling from these one-dimensional densities is key to obtain an efficient algorithm. We demonstrate that a generalization of slice sampling can utilize their specific structure for this task and illustrate the performance of the resulting slice-within-Gibbs samplers by different computed examples. These new samplers allow us to perform sample-based Bayesian inference in high-dimensional scenarios with certain priors for the first time, including the inversion of computed tomography data with the popular isotropic total variation prior.

  13. Increased or Reversed? The Effect of Surprise on Hindsight Bias Depends on the Hindsight Component

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nestler, Steffen; Egloff, Boris

    2009-01-01

    Two diverging hypotheses concerning the influence of surprising events on hindsight effects have been proposed: Although some authors believe that surprising events lead to a reversal of hindsight bias, others have proposed that surprise increases hindsight bias. Drawing on the separate-components view of the hindsight bias (which argues that…

  14. Anticipating surprise: Using agent-based alternative futures simulation modeling to identify and map surprising fires in the Willamette Valley, Oregon USA

    Treesearch

    David Hulse; Allan Branscomb; Chris Enright; Bart Johnson; Cody Evers; John Bolte; Alan Ager

    2016-01-01

    This article offers a literature-supported conception and empirically grounded analysis of surprise by exploring the capacity of scenario-driven, agent-based simulation models to better anticipate it. Building on literature-derived definitions and typologies of surprise, and using results from a modeled 81,000 ha study area in a wildland-urban interface of western...

  15. Word Learning as Bayesian Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Fei; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2007-01-01

    The authors present a Bayesian framework for understanding how adults and children learn the meanings of words. The theory explains how learners can generalize meaningfully from just one or a few positive examples of a novel word's referents, by making rational inductive inferences that integrate prior knowledge about plausible word meanings with…

  16. Bayesian robust principal component analysis.

    PubMed

    Ding, Xinghao; He, Lihan; Carin, Lawrence

    2011-12-01

    A hierarchical Bayesian model is considered for decomposing a matrix into low-rank and sparse components, assuming the observed matrix is a superposition of the two. The matrix is assumed noisy, with unknown and possibly non-stationary noise statistics. The Bayesian framework infers an approximate representation for the noise statistics while simultaneously inferring the low-rank and sparse-outlier contributions; the model is robust to a broad range of noise levels, without having to change model hyperparameter settings. In addition, the Bayesian framework allows exploitation of additional structure in the matrix. For example, in video applications each row (or column) corresponds to a video frame, and we introduce a Markov dependency between consecutive rows in the matrix (corresponding to consecutive frames in the video). The properties of this Markov process are also inferred based on the observed matrix, while simultaneously denoising and recovering the low-rank and sparse components. We compare the Bayesian model to a state-of-the-art optimization-based implementation of robust PCA; considering several examples, we demonstrate competitive performance of the proposed model.

  17. Bayesian stable isotope mixing models

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...

  18. Bayesian Integration of Spatial Information

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Ken; Shettleworth, Sara J.; Huttenlocher, Janellen; Rieser, John J.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial judgments and actions are often based on multiple cues. The authors review a multitude of phenomena on the integration of spatial cues in diverse species to consider how nearly optimally animals combine the cues. Under the banner of Bayesian perception, cues are sometimes combined and weighted in a near optimal fashion. In other instances…

  19. Word Learning as Bayesian Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Fei; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2007-01-01

    The authors present a Bayesian framework for understanding how adults and children learn the meanings of words. The theory explains how learners can generalize meaningfully from just one or a few positive examples of a novel word's referents, by making rational inductive inferences that integrate prior knowledge about plausible word meanings with…

  20. Bayesian stable isotope mixing models

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...

  1. Bayesian Alternation during Tactile Augmentation

    PubMed Central

    Goeke, Caspar M.; Planera, Serena; Finger, Holger; König, Peter

    2016-01-01

    A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well-described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study, we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC) task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition), rotation only (native condition), and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition). Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants' responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND). Then, we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67) than the Bayesian integration model (χred2 = 4.34). Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all (WTA) model (χred2 = 1.64), which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However, the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2 = 1.09) utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  2. Bayesian Alternation during Tactile Augmentation.

    PubMed

    Goeke, Caspar M; Planera, Serena; Finger, Holger; König, Peter

    2016-01-01

    A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well-described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study, we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC) task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition), rotation only (native condition), and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition). Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants' responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND). Then, we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred(2) = 1.67) than the Bayesian integration model (χred(2) = 4.34). Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all (WTA) model (χred(2) = 1.64), which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However, the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred(2) = 1.09) utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  3. Conformation-dependent DNA attraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Weifeng; Nordenskiöld, Lars; Zhou, Ruhong; Mu, Yuguang

    2014-05-01

    Understanding how DNA molecules interact with other biomolecules is related to how they utilize their functions and is therefore critical for understanding their structure-function relationships. For a long time, the existence of Z-form DNA (a left-handed double helical version of DNA, instead of the common right-handed B-form) has puzzled the scientists, and the definitive biological significance of Z-DNA has not yet been clarified. In this study, the effects of DNA conformation in DNA-DNA interactions are explored by molecular dynamics simulations. Using umbrella sampling, we find that for both B- and Z-form DNA, surrounding Mg2+ ions always exert themselves to screen the Coulomb repulsion between DNA phosphates, resulting in very weak attractive force. On the contrary, a tight and stable bound state is discovered for Z-DNA in the presence of Mg2+ or Na+, benefiting from their hydrophobic nature. Based on the contact surface and a dewetting process analysis, a two-stage binding process of Z-DNA is outlined: two Z-DNA first attract each other through charge screening and Mg2+ bridges to phosphate groups in the same way as that of B-DNA, after which hydrophobic contacts of the deoxyribose groups are formed via a dewetting effect, resulting in stable attraction between two Z-DNA molecules. The highlighted hydrophobic nature of Z-DNA interaction from the current study may help to understand the biological functions of Z-DNA in gene transcription.Understanding how DNA molecules interact with other biomolecules is related to how they utilize their functions and is therefore critical for understanding their structure-function relationships. For a long time, the existence of Z-form DNA (a left-handed double helical version of DNA, instead of the common right-handed B-form) has puzzled the scientists, and the definitive biological significance of Z-DNA has not yet been clarified. In this study, the effects of DNA conformation in DNA-DNA interactions are explored by

  4. AO 0235+164 and Surrounding Field: Surprising HST Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burbidge, E. M.; Beaver, E. A.; Cohen, Ross D.; Junkkarinen, V. T.; Lyons, R. W.

    1996-01-01

    Results obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope on the highly variable radio, x-ray, and gamma-ray emitting QSO (or BL Lac object) AO 0235 + 164 are presented and analyzed. WFPC2 images were obtained in 1994 June, when AO 0235 + 164 was bright (m approx. 17), and the results are described in Sec. 3. After subtraction of the PSF of the QSO, hereafter called AO following the nomenclature of Yanny et al. (1989), the companion object named A, 2 sec south of AO, is discovered not to be an elliptical galaxy as hypothesized earlier, but to be an AGN object, with a central UV-bright point-source nucleus and faint surrounding nebulosity extending to AO. The second companion object 1.3 sec east of AO discovered by Yanny et al. (1989) and named object Al, appears more like a normal spiral galaxy. We have measured the positions, luminosities, and colors of some 30 faint objects in the field around AO 0235 + 16; most are extended and may be star-forming galaxies in a loose group or cluster. Our most surprising result of the HST observations comes from FOS spectra obtained in 1995 July, discussed in Sec. 4. Because of a positioning error of the telescope and AO's faintness at that time (m approx. 20), object A was observed instead of the intended target AO. Serendipitously, we discovered A to have broad deep BALQSO-type absorptions of C IV, Si IV, N V shortward of broad emissions. A is thus ejecting high velocity, highly ionized gas into the surrounding IGM. We discuss in Sec. 5 the relationship of the objects in the central 10 sec X 1O sec region around AO, where redshifts z(sub e) = 0.94, z(sub a) = 0.524, 0.851 in AO, (sub e) = 0.524 and Z(sub BAL)=0.511 in A, are found. We hypothesize that some of the 30 faint objects in the 77 sec. x 77 sec. field may be part of a large star-forming region at z approx. 0.5, as suggested for a few objects by Yanny et al. (1989). The proximity of two highly active extragalactic objects, AO 0235+164 and its AGN companion A, is remarkable and

  5. Surprising Sensitivities in Simulations of Radiative Convective Equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drotos, Gabor; Becker, Tobias; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

    2017-04-01

    The climate and climate-sensitivity of a global model run in radiative equilibrium is explored. Results from simulations with ECHAM6.3 coupled to a slab ocean and run in a wide range of configurations are presented. Simulations both with and without a parameterised representation of deep convection are conducted for CO2 concentrations ranging from one eighth of present day values to thirty-two times the present day, and for variations in the solar constant of more than a factor of two. Very long simulations, in some case more than a thousand years, are performed to adequately sample the attractor of the different climate states of the model, and provide robust estimates of the system's climate sensitivity parameter. For the standard configuration of the model the climate sensitivity progressively decreases from very large values (6-7K) for the coldest climates to well below 1 K for the warmest climates. For very high CO2 levels (16 and 32 times the present value) fluctuations of globally averaged temperature as large as 10 K arise on decadal time-scales. These fluctuations manifest as quasi-period coolings, driven by large and persistent global scale decks of stratiform low clouds, so that for a period of several years global temperatures drop to levels below the lowest temperatures of the climate with present day values of CO2. The same configuration of the model has more modest sensitivities when the insolation is reduced, but runaway warming results for small (10%) increases. Simulations without parameterised convection have colder (by roughly 10K) climates and smaller (1K) sensitivities, allowing a stable climate with earth-like temperatures even for insolation much (50%) larger than the present day. Such values of insolation are possible because over a large range of the insolation the climate sensitivity parameter is very near zero. The surprising sensitivities of the system, and the limit-cycle like behaviour of the very CO2 rich climates, can be traced to

  6. Stars Form Surprisingly Close to Milky Way's Black Hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2005-10-01

    The supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way has surprisingly helped spawn a new generation of stars, according to observations from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory. This novel mode of star formation may solve several mysteries about the supermassive black holes that reside at the centers of nearly all galaxies. "Massive black holes are usually known for violence and destruction," said Sergei Nayakshin of the University of Leicester, United Kingdom, and coauthor of a paper on this research in an upcoming issue of the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. "So it's remarkable that this black hole helped create new stars, not just destroy them." Black holes have earned their fearsome reputation because any material -- including stars -- that falls within the so-called event horizon is never seen again. However, these new results indicate that the immense disks of gas known to orbit many black holes at a "safe" distance from the event horizon can help nurture the formation of new stars. Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole This conclusion came from new clues that could only be revealed in X-rays. Until the latest Chandra results, astronomers have disagreed about the origin of a mysterious group of massive stars discovered by infrared astronomers to be orbiting less than a light year from the Milky Way's central black hole, a.k.a. Sagittarius A*, or Sgr A*. At such close distances to Sgr A*, the standard model for star formation predicts that gas clouds from which stars form should have been ripped apart by tidal forces from the black hole. Two models to explain this puzzle have been proposed. In the disk model, the gravity of a dense disk of gas around Sgr A* offsets the tidal forces and allows stars to form; in the migration model, the stars formed in a star cluster far away from the black hole and migrated in to form the ring of massive stars. The migration scenario predicts about a

  7. Facial attractiveness, weight status, and personality trait attribution: The role of attractiveness in weight stigma.

    PubMed

    Cross, Nicole; Kiefner-Burmeister, Allison; Rossi, James; Borushok, Jessica; Hinman, Nova; Burmeister, Jacob; Carels, Robert A

    2016-04-11

    The current study examined the influence of facial attractiveness and weight status on personality trait attributions (e.g., honest, friendly) among more and less facially attractive as well as thin and overweight models. Participants viewed pictures of one of four types of models (overweight/less attractive, overweight/more attractive, thin/less attractive, thin/more attractive) and rated their attractiveness (facial, body, overall) and personality on 15 traits. Facial attractiveness and weight status additively impacted personality trait ratings. In mediation analyses, the facial attractiveness condition was no longer associated with personality traits after controlling for perceived facial attractiveness in 12 personality traits. Conversely, the thin and overweight condition was no longer associated with personality traits after controlling for perceived body attractiveness in only 2 personality traits. Post hoc moderation analysis indicated that weight status differently influenced the association between body attractiveness and personality trait attribution. Findings bear implications for attractiveness bias, weight bias, and discrimination research.

  8. Bayesian inferences about the self (and others): A review

    PubMed Central

    Moutoussis, Michael; Fearon, Pasco; El-Deredy, Wael; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

    2014-01-01

    Viewing the brain as an organ of approximate Bayesian inference can help us understand how it represents the self. We suggest that inferred representations of the self have a normative function: to predict and optimise the likely outcomes of social interactions. Technically, we cast this predict-and-optimise as maximising the chance of favourable outcomes through active inference. Here the utility of outcomes can be conceptualised as prior beliefs about final states. Actions based on interpersonal representations can therefore be understood as minimising surprise – under the prior belief that one will end up in states with high utility. Interpersonal representations thus serve to render interactions more predictable, while the affective valence of interpersonal inference renders self-perception evaluative. Distortions of self-representation contribute to major psychiatric disorders such as depression, personality disorder and paranoia. The approach we review may therefore operationalise the study of interpersonal representations in pathological states. PMID:24583455

  9. Carbon Dioxide: Surprising Effects on Decision Making and Neurocognitive Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, John T.

    2013-01-01

    The occupants of modern submarines and the International Space Station (ISS) have much in common as far as their air quality is concerned. Air is polluted by materials offgassing, use of utility compounds, leaks of systems chemicals, and anthropogenic sources. The primary anthropogenic compound of concern to submariners and astronauts has been carbon dioxide (CO2). NASA and the US Navy rely on the National Research Council Committee on Toxicology (NRC-COT) to help formulate exposure levels to CO2 that are thought to be safe for exposures of 3-6 months. NASA calls its limits Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs). Years of experience aboard the ISS and a recent publication on deficits in decision making in ground-based subjects exposed briefly to 0.25% CO2 suggest that exposure levels that have been presumed acceptable to preserve health and performance need to be reevaluated. The current CO2 exposure limits for 3-6 months set by NASA and the UK Navy are 0.7%, and the limit for US submariners is 0.5%, although the NRC-COT recommended a 90-day level of 0.8% as safe a few years ago. NASA has set a 1000-day SMAC at 0.5% for exploration-class missions. Anecdotal experience with ISS operations approaching the current 180-day SMAC of 0.7% suggest that this limit is too high. Temporarily, NASA has limited exposures to 0.5% until further peer-reviewed data become available. In the meantime, a study published last year in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives (Satish U, et al. 2012) demonstrated that complexdecision- making performance is somewhat affected at 0.1% CO2 and becomes "dysfunctional" for at least half of the 9 indices of performance at concentrations approaching 0.25% CO2. The investigators used the Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) method of testing for decisionmaking ability, and the results were so surprising to the investigators that they declared that their findings need to be independently confirmed. NASA has responded to the

  10. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  11. Mate attraction, retention and expulsion.

    PubMed

    Miner, Emily J; Shackelford, Todd K

    2010-02-01

    Sexual selection theory and parental investment theory have guided much of the evolutionary psychological research on human mating. Based on these theories, researchers have predicted and found sex differences in mating preferences and behaviors. Men generally prefer that their long-term partners are youthful and physically attractive. Women generally prefer that their long-term partners have existing resources or clear potential for securing resources and display a willingness to invest those resources in children the relationship might produce. Both men and women, however, desire long-term partners who are kind and intelligent. Once a partner is obtained, men and women act in sex-specific ways to ensure the continuation and exclusivity of the relationship. Men, in particular, engage in behaviors designed to prevent, correct, and anticipate their partner's sexual infidelity. Relationships dissolve for evolutionarily-relevant reasons: infidelity, childlessness, and infertility. The discussion addresses directions for future research.

  12. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2014-01-01

    This article considers Bayesian model averaging as a means of addressing uncertainty in the selection of variables in the propensity score equation. We investigate an approximate Bayesian model averaging approach based on the model-averaged propensity score estimates produced by the R package BMA but that ignores uncertainty in the propensity score. We also provide a fully Bayesian model averaging approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) to account for uncertainty in both parameters and models. A detailed study of our approach examines the differences in the causal estimate when incorporating noninformative versus informative priors in the model averaging stage. We examine these approaches under common methods of propensity score implementation. In addition, we evaluate the impact of changing the size of Occam's window used to narrow down the range of possible models. We also assess the predictive performance of both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches and compare it with the case without Bayesian model averaging. Overall, results show that both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches recover the treatment effect estimates well and generally provide larger uncertainty estimates, as expected. Both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer slightly better prediction of the propensity score compared with the Bayesian approach with a single propensity score equation. Covariate balance checks for the case study show that both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer good balance. The fully Bayesian model averaging approach also provides posterior probability intervals of the balance indices.

  13. Molecular attraction of condensed bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derjaguin, B. V.; Abrikosova, I. I.; Lifshitz, E. M.

    2015-09-01

    From the Editorial Board. As a contribution to commemorating the 100th anniversary of the birth of Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz, it was found appropriate by the Editorial Board of Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk (UFN) [Physics-Uspekhi] journal that the materials of the jubilee-associated Scientific Session of the Physical Sciences Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences published in this issue (pp. 877-905) be augmented by the review paper "Molecular attraction of condensed bodies" reproduced from a 1958 UFN issue. Included in this review, in addition to an account by Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz of his theory of molecular attractive forces between condensed bodies (first published in Zhurnal Eksperimental'noi i Teoreticheskoi Fiziki (ZhETF) in 1955 and in its English translation Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Physics (JETP) in 1956), is a summary of a series of experimental studies beginning in 1949 by Irina Igorevna Abrikosova at the Institute of Physical Chemistry of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR in a laboratory led by Boris Vladimirovich Derjaguin (1902-1994), a Corresponding Member of the USSR Academy of Sciences. In 1958, however, UFN was not yet available in English translation, so the material of the review is insufficiently accessible to the present-day English-speaking reader. This is the reason why the UFN Editorial Board decided to contribute to celebrating the 100th anniversary of E M Lifshitz's birthday by reproducing on the journal's pages a 1958 review paper which contains both E M Lifshitz's theory itself and the experimental data that underpinned it (for an account of how Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz was enlisted to explain the experimental results of I I Abrikosova and B V Derjaguin, see the letter to the editors N P Danilova on page 925 of this jubilee collection of publications).

  14. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2017-03-01

    A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  15. Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

    PubMed Central

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  16. Bayesian estimation of turbulent motion.

    PubMed

    Héas, Patrick; Herzet, Cédric; Mémin, Etienne; Heitz, Dominique; Mininni, Pablo D

    2013-06-01

    Based on physical laws describing the multiscale structure of turbulent flows, this paper proposes a regularizer for fluid motion estimation from an image sequence. Regularization is achieved by imposing some scale invariance property between histograms of motion increments computed at different scales. By reformulating this problem from a Bayesian perspective, an algorithm is proposed to jointly estimate motion, regularization hyperparameters, and to select the most likely physical prior among a set of models. Hyperparameter and model inference are conducted by posterior maximization, obtained by marginalizing out non--Gaussian motion variables. The Bayesian estimator is assessed on several image sequences depicting synthetic and real turbulent fluid flows. Results obtained with the proposed approach exceed the state-of-the-art results in fluid flow estimation.

  17. Pedestrian dynamics via Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkat, Ibrahim; Khader, Ahamad Tajudin; Subramanian, K. G.

    2014-06-01

    Studies on pedestrian dynamics have vital applications in crowd control management relevant to organizing safer large scale gatherings including pilgrimages. Reasoning pedestrian motion via computational intelligence techniques could be posed as a potential research problem within the realms of Artificial Intelligence. In this contribution, we propose a "Bayesian Network Model for Pedestrian Dynamics" (BNMPD) to reason the vast uncertainty imposed by pedestrian motion. With reference to key findings from literature which include simulation studies, we systematically identify: What are the various factors that could contribute to the prediction of crowd flow status? The proposed model unifies these factors in a cohesive manner using Bayesian Networks (BNs) and serves as a sophisticated probabilistic tool to simulate vital cause and effect relationships entailed in the pedestrian domain.

  18. Bayesian sampling in visual perception.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Bote, Rubén; Knill, David C; Pouget, Alexandre

    2011-07-26

    It is well-established that some aspects of perception and action can be understood as probabilistic inferences over underlying probability distributions. In some situations, it would be advantageous for the nervous system to sample interpretations from a probability distribution rather than commit to a particular interpretation. In this study, we asked whether visual percepts correspond to samples from the probability distribution over image interpretations, a form of sampling that we refer to as Bayesian sampling. To test this idea, we manipulated pairs of sensory cues in a bistable display consisting of two superimposed moving drifting gratings, and we asked subjects to report their perceived changes in depth ordering. We report that the fractions of dominance of each percept follow the multiplicative rule predicted by Bayesian sampling. Furthermore, we show that attractor neural networks can sample probability distributions if input currents add linearly and encode probability distributions with probabilistic population codes.

  19. Bayesian inference for agreement measures.

    PubMed

    Vidal, Ignacio; de Castro, Mário

    2016-08-25

    The agreement of different measurement methods is an important issue in several disciplines like, for example, Medicine, Metrology, and Engineering. In this article, some agreement measures, common in the literature, were analyzed from a Bayesian point of view. Posterior inferences for such agreement measures were obtained based on well-known Bayesian inference procedures for the bivariate normal distribution. As a consequence, a general, simple, and effective method is presented, which does not require Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and can be applied considering a great variety of prior distributions. Illustratively, the method was exemplified using five objective priors for the bivariate normal distribution. A tool for assessing the adequacy of the model is discussed. Results from a simulation study and an application to a real dataset are also reported.

  20. Bayesian seismology of the Sun

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruberbauer, M.; Guenther, D. B.

    2013-06-01

    We perform a Bayesian grid-based analysis of the solar l = 0, 1, 2 and 3 p modes obtained via BiSON in order to deliver the first Bayesian asteroseismic analysis of the solar composition problem. We do not find decisive evidence to prefer either of the contending chemical compositions, although the revised solar abundances (AGSS09) are more probable in general. We do find indications for systematic problems in standard stellar evolution models, unrelated to the consequences of inadequate modelling of the outer layers on the higher order modes. The seismic observables are best fitted by solar models that are several hundred million years older than the meteoritic age of the Sun. Similarly, meteoritic age calibrated models do not adequately reproduce the observed seismic observables. Our results suggest that these problems will affect any asteroseismic inference that relies on a calibration to the Sun.

  1. Interpersonal Congruency, Attitude Similarity, and Interpersonal Attraction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Touhey, John C.

    1975-01-01

    As no experimental study has examined the effects of congruency on attraction, the present investigation orthogonally varied attitude similarity and interpersonal congruency in order to compare the two independent variables as determinants of interpersonal attraction. (Author/RK)

  2. Evaluating self and partner physical attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Swami, Viren; Furnham, Adrian; Georgiades, Chrissa; Pang, Lily

    2007-03-01

    This study used a novel questionnaire to examine ratings of self and partner physical attractiveness. Seventy-two men and 83 women estimated their own and their opposite-sex partner's overall physical attractiveness and the attractiveness of various body parts and measures. They also answered six simple questions concerning physical attractiveness. Results showed significant gender differences in self-estimates of overall facial attractiveness and upper body features. In general, and regardless of gender, participants rated their opposite-sex partners as being significantly more attractive than themselves. In addition, the results showed that body weight and facial attractiveness were the best predictors of overall physical attractiveness. Implications of these results in terms of social biases are considered.

  3. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  4. Elements of Bayesian experimental design

    SciTech Connect

    Sivia, D.S.

    1997-09-01

    We consider some elements of the Bayesian approach that are important for optimal experimental design. While the underlying principles used are very general, and are explained in detail in a recent tutorial text, they are applied here to the specific case of characterising the inferential value of different resolution peakshapes. This particular issue was considered earlier by Silver, Sivia and Pynn (1989, 1990a, 1990b), and the following presentation confirms and extends the conclusions of their analysis.

  5. The Psychology of Bayesian Reasoning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-21

    i.e., .70-.80). Well-established findings such as these have supported the view that expert and naïve subjects alike are non-Bayesian ( Kahneman ...reach an estimate (Tversky and Kahneman , 1972, 1973). For instance, if base rates were neglected in the mammography problem, P(H | D) .80 .80 .096...Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. D. Kahneman , P. Slovic and A. Tversky (New York: Cambridge University Press), 249–67. Edwards, W

  6. Bayesian kinematic earthquake source models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Simons, M.; Beck, J. L.; Genrich, J. F.; Galetzka, J. E.; Chowdhury, F.; Owen, S. E.; Webb, F.; Comte, D.; Glass, B.; Leiva, C.; Ortega, F. H.

    2009-12-01

    Most coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic slip models are based on highly regularized optimizations which yield one solution which satisfies the data given a particular set of regularizing constraints. This regularization hampers our ability to answer basic questions such as whether seismic and aseismic slip overlap or instead rupture separate portions of the fault zone. We present a Bayesian methodology for generating kinematic earthquake source models with a focus on large subduction zone earthquakes. Unlike classical optimization approaches, Bayesian techniques sample the ensemble of all acceptable models presented as an a posteriori probability density function (PDF), and thus we can explore the entire solution space to determine, for example, which model parameters are well determined and which are not, or what is the likelihood that two slip distributions overlap in space. Bayesian sampling also has the advantage that all a priori knowledge of the source process can be used to mold the a posteriori ensemble of models. Although very powerful, Bayesian methods have up to now been of limited use in geophysical modeling because they are only computationally feasible for problems with a small number of free parameters due to what is called the "curse of dimensionality." However, our methodology can successfully sample solution spaces of many hundreds of parameters, which is sufficient to produce finite fault kinematic earthquake models. Our algorithm is a modification of the tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo (tempered MCMC or TMCMC) method. In our algorithm, we sample a "tempered" a posteriori PDF using many MCMC simulations running in parallel and evolutionary computation in which models which fit the data poorly are preferentially eliminated in favor of models which better predict the data. We present results for both synthetic test problems as well as for the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake, the latter of which is constrained by InSAR, local high

  7. Bayesian analysis for kaon photoproduction

    SciTech Connect

    Marsainy, T. Mart, T.

    2014-09-25

    We have investigated contribution of the nucleon resonances in the kaon photoproduction process by using an established statistical decision making method, i.e. the Bayesian method. This method does not only evaluate the model over its entire parameter space, but also takes the prior information and experimental data into account. The result indicates that certain resonances have larger probabilities to contribute to the process.

  8. Frequentist tests for Bayesian models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucy, L. B.

    2016-04-01

    Analogues of the frequentist chi-square and F tests are proposed for testing goodness-of-fit and consistency for Bayesian models. Simple examples exhibit these tests' detection of inconsistency between consecutive experiments with identical parameters, when the first experiment provides the prior for the second. In a related analysis, a quantitative measure is derived for judging the degree of tension between two different experiments with partially overlapping parameter vectors.

  9. Extreme dry spells: Problem of rounding and Bayesian solution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cindric Kalin, Ksenija; Pasaric, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    Two theoretically justified models of extremes are applied to dry spell (DS) series: The generalized Pareto distribution is applied to peak-over-threshold data (POT-GP), and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution is applied to the annual maxima (AM-GEV). DS data are categorized according to three precipitation-per-day thresholds (1, 5 and 10 mm). The well-known classical methods for parameter estimation (L-moments and Maximum Likelihood) are applied both to measured and to simulated DS time series. When applied within the GEV model, both methods yield very similar results. Somewhat surprisingly, in the case of the GP model, these methods lead to substantially different estimates of parameters, as well as return values. This is found to be a consequence of the fact that DS values are recorded discretely as a whole number of days, whereas the classical extreme value distributions are intended for continuous data. The inference is further evaluated within the Bayesian paradigm, where the process of rounding can be incorporated in a straightforward manner. The study confirmed precautionary estimations when applying the AM-GEV model in comparison with the simpler AM-Gumbel model. Regarding POT-GP modelling, the Bayesian approach reveals a high uncertainty that can occur in parameter estimations when very high thresholds are considered. It is found that there are no clear criteria in the assessment of some optimal threshold, nor is there a necessity for its detection. Instead, Bayesian inference provides a reasonable overall picture of the range of thresholds compatible with the GP-model. Furthermore, it is concluded that when using rounded data, all three GP parameters should be assessed. The location estimates should be compatible with the theoretical value of 0.5. Although the present study is performed mainly on the DS series from two stations in Croatia spanning the period of 1961-2010, the authors believe that the methodology developed here is applicable to

  10. Surprise Discovery of Highly Developed Structure in the Young Universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2005-03-01

    ESO-VLT and ESA XMM-Newton Together Discover Earliest Massive Cluster of Galaxies Known Summary Combining observations with ESO's Very Large Telescope and ESA's XMM-Newton X-ray observatory, astronomers have discovered the most distant, very massive structure in the Universe known so far. It is a remote cluster of galaxies that is found to weigh as much as several thousand galaxies like our own Milky Way and is located no less than 9,000 million light-years away. The VLT images reveal that it contains reddish and elliptical, i.e. old, galaxies. Interestingly, the cluster itself appears to be in a very advanced state of development. It must therefore have formed when the Universe was less than one third of its present age. The discovery of such a complex and mature structure so early in the history of the Universe is highly surprising. Indeed, until recently it would even have been deemed impossible. PR Photo 05a/05: Discovery X-Ray Image of the Distant Cluster (ESA XMM-Netwon) PR Photo 05b/05: False Colour Image of XMMU J2235.3-2557 (FORS/VLT and ESA XMM-Newton) Serendipitous discovery ESO PR Photo 05a/05 ESO PR Photo 05a/05 Discovery X-Ray Image of the Distant Cluster (ESA XMM-Newton) [Preview - JPEG: 400 x 421 pix - 106k] [Normal - JPEG: 800 x 842 pix - 843k] [Full Res - JPEG: 2149 x 2262 pix - 2.5M] Caption: ESO PR Photo 05a/05 is a reproduction of the XMM-Newton observations of the nearby active galaxy NGC7314 (bright object in the centre) from which the newly found distant cluster (white box) was serendipitously identified. The circular field-of-view of XMM-Newton is half-a-degree in diameter, or about the same angular size as the Full Moon. The inset shows the diffuse X-ray emission from the distant cluster XMMU J2235.3-2557. Clusters of galaxies are gigantic structures containing hundreds to thousands of galaxies. They are the fundamental building blocks of the Universe and their study thus provides unique information about the underlying architecture of the

  11. Bayesian second law of thermodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartolotta, Anthony; Carroll, Sean M.; Leichenauer, Stefan; Pollack, Jason

    2016-08-01

    We derive a generalization of the second law of thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be updated by the measurement process, this formulation resolves a tension between the fact that the entropy of a statistical system can sometimes fluctuate downward and the information-theoretic idea that knowledge of a stochastically evolving system degrades over time. The Bayesian second law can be written as Δ H (ρm,ρ ) + F |m≥0 , where Δ H (ρm,ρ ) is the change in the cross entropy between the original phase-space probability distribution ρ and the measurement-updated distribution ρm and F |m is the expectation value of a generalized heat flow out of the system. We also derive refined versions of the second law that bound the entropy increase from below by a non-negative number, as well as Bayesian versions of integral fluctuation theorems. We demonstrate the formalism using simple analytical and numerical examples.

  12. Bayesian second law of thermodynamics.

    PubMed

    Bartolotta, Anthony; Carroll, Sean M; Leichenauer, Stefan; Pollack, Jason

    2016-08-01

    We derive a generalization of the second law of thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be updated by the measurement process, this formulation resolves a tension between the fact that the entropy of a statistical system can sometimes fluctuate downward and the information-theoretic idea that knowledge of a stochastically evolving system degrades over time. The Bayesian second law can be written as ΔH(ρ_{m},ρ)+〈Q〉_{F|m}≥0, where ΔH(ρ_{m},ρ) is the change in the cross entropy between the original phase-space probability distribution ρ and the measurement-updated distribution ρ_{m} and 〈Q〉_{F|m} is the expectation value of a generalized heat flow out of the system. We also derive refined versions of the second law that bound the entropy increase from below by a non-negative number, as well as Bayesian versions of integral fluctuation theorems. We demonstrate the formalism using simple analytical and numerical examples.

  13. Bayesian inference for radio observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lochner, Michelle; Natarajan, Iniyan; Zwart, Jonathan T. L.; Smirnov, Oleg; Bassett, Bruce A.; Oozeer, Nadeem; Kunz, Martin

    2015-06-01

    New telescopes like the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will push into a new sensitivity regime and expose systematics, such as direction-dependent effects, that could previously be ignored. Current methods for handling such systematics rely on alternating best estimates of instrumental calibration and models of the underlying sky, which can lead to inadequate uncertainty estimates and biased results because any correlations between parameters are ignored. These deconvolution algorithms produce a single image that is assumed to be a true representation of the sky, when in fact it is just one realization of an infinite ensemble of images compatible with the noise in the data. In contrast, here we report a Bayesian formalism that simultaneously infers both systematics and science. Our technique, Bayesian Inference for Radio Observations (BIRO), determines all parameters directly from the raw data, bypassing image-making entirely, by sampling from the joint posterior probability distribution. This enables it to derive both correlations and accurate uncertainties, making use of the flexible software MEQTREES to model the sky and telescope simultaneously. We demonstrate BIRO with two simulated sets of Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope data sets. In the first, we perform joint estimates of 103 scientific (flux densities of sources) and instrumental (pointing errors, beamwidth and noise) parameters. In the second example, we perform source separation with BIRO. Using the Bayesian evidence, we can accurately select between a single point source, two point sources and an extended Gaussian source, allowing for `super-resolution' on scales much smaller than the synthesized beam.

  14. Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac

    2014-03-01

    Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.

  15. Supermagnetic Neutron Star Surprises Scientists, Forces Revision of Theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2006-08-01

    magnetars because their magnetic fields are 100-1,000 times stronger than those of typical pulsars. It is the decay of those incredibly strong fields that powers their strange X-ray emission. "The magnetic field from a magnetar would make an aircraft carrier spin around and point north quicker than a compass needle moves on Earth," said David Helfand, of Columbia University. A magnetar's field is 1,000 trillion times stronger than Earth's, Helfand pointed out. The new object -- named XTE J1810-197 -- was first discovered by NASA's Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer when it emitted a strong burst of X-rays in 2003. While the X-rays were fading in 2004, Jules Halpern of Columbia University and collaborators identified the magnetar as a radio-wave emitter using the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope in New Mexico. Any radio emission is highly unusual for a magnetar. Because magnetars had not been seen to regularly emit radio waves, the scientists presumed that the radio emission was caused by a cloud of particles thrown off the neutron star at the time of its X-ray outburst, an idea they soon would realize was wrong. With knowledge that the magnetar emitted some form of radio waves, Camilo and his colleagues observed it with the Parkes radio telescope in Australia in March and immediately detected astonishingly strong radio pulsations every 5.5 seconds, corresponding to the previously-determined rotation rate of the neutron star. As they continued to observe XTE J1810-197, the scientists got more surprises. Whereas most pulsars become weaker at higher radio frequencies, XTE J1810-197 does not, remaining a strong emitter at frequencies up to 140 GHz, the highest frequency ever detected from a radio pulsar. In addition, unlike normal pulsars, the object's radio emission fluctuates in strength from day to day, and the shape of the pulsations changes as well. These variations likely indicate that the magnetic fields around the pulsar are changing

  16. Chandra Finds Surprising Black Hole Activity In Galaxy Cluster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2002-09-01

    Scientists at the Carnegie Observatories in Pasadena, California, have uncovered six times the expected number of active, supermassive black holes in a single viewing of a cluster of galaxies, a finding that has profound implications for theories as to how old galaxies fuel the growth of their central black holes. The finding suggests that voracious, central black holes might be as common in old, red galaxies as they are in younger, blue galaxies, a surprise to many astronomers. The team made this discovery with NASA'S Chandra X-ray Observatory. They also used Carnegie's 6.5-meter Walter Baade Telescope at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile for follow-up optical observations. "This changes our view of galaxy clusters as the retirement homes for old and quiet black holes," said Dr. Paul Martini, lead author on a paper describing the results that appears in the September 10 issue of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. "The question now is, how do these black holes produce bright X-ray sources, similar to what we see from much younger galaxies?" Typical of the black hole phenomenon, the cores of these active galaxies are luminous in X-ray radiation. Yet, they are obscured, and thus essentially undetectable in the radio, infrared and optical wavebands. "X rays can penetrate obscuring gas and dust as easily as they penetrate the soft tissue of the human body to look for broken bones," said co-author Dr. Dan Kelson. "So, with Chandra, we can peer through the dust and we have found that even ancient galaxies with 10-billion-year-old stars can have central black holes still actively pulling in copious amounts of interstellar gas. This activity has simply been hidden from us all this time. This means these galaxies aren't over the hill after all and our theories need to be revised." Scientists say that supermassive black holes -- having the mass of millions to billions of suns squeezed into a region about the size of our Solar System -- are the engines in the cores of

  17. Metaproteomics of cellulose methanisation under thermophilic conditions reveals a surprisingly high proteolytic activity

    PubMed Central

    Lü, Fan; Bize, Ariane; Guillot, Alain; Monnet, Véronique; Madigou, Céline; Chapleur, Olivier; Mazéas, Laurent; He, Pinjing; Bouchez, Théodore

    2014-01-01

    Cellulose is the most abundant biopolymer on Earth. Optimising energy recovery from this renewable but recalcitrant material is a key issue. The metaproteome expressed by thermophilic communities during cellulose anaerobic digestion was investigated in microcosms. By multiplying the analytical replicates (65 protein fractions analysed by MS/MS) and relying solely on public protein databases, more than 500 non-redundant protein functions were identified. The taxonomic community structure as inferred from the metaproteomic data set was in good overall agreement with 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing and fluorescent in situ hybridisation analyses. Numerous functions related to cellulose and hemicellulose hydrolysis and fermentation catalysed by bacteria related to Caldicellulosiruptor spp. and Clostridium thermocellum were retrieved, indicating their key role in the cellulose-degradation process and also suggesting their complementary action. Despite the abundance of acetate as a major fermentation product, key methanogenesis enzymes from the acetoclastic pathway were not detected. In contrast, enzymes from the hydrogenotrophic pathway affiliated to Methanothermobacter were almost exclusively identified for methanogenesis, suggesting a syntrophic acetate oxidation process coupled to hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Isotopic analyses confirmed the high dominance of the hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Very surprising was the identification of an abundant proteolytic activity from Coprothermobacter proteolyticus strains, probably acting as scavenger and/or predator performing proteolysis and fermentation. Metaproteomics thus appeared as an efficient tool to unravel and characterise metabolic networks as well as ecological interactions during methanisation bioprocesses. More generally, metaproteomics provides direct functional insights at a limited cost, and its attractiveness should increase in the future as sequence databases are growing exponentially. PMID:23949661

  18. Attribution, the Attractiveness Stereotype, and the Elderly.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Douglas F.; Pittenger, John B.

    1984-01-01

    Tests the applicability of the physical attractiveness stereotype to perceptions of the elderly. In the first study, college-age and elderly observers rated the attractiveness of faces of elderly people. In the second study, subjects rated faces at three levels of attractiveness on personality, success in life experiences, and occupational…

  19. Differential Client Attractiveness in a Counseling Analogue

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Carl S.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Investigated variations in conceptual complexity level of counselor and client on counselor attraction to the client. Counselor trainees rated attractiveness of clients following two counseling analogue tasks in which the client was depicted as exhibiting high or low conceptual level. More complex clients are more attractive across both levels.…

  20. A group's physical attractiveness is greater than the average attractiveness of its members: the group attractiveness effect.

    PubMed

    van Osch, Yvette; Blanken, Irene; Meijs, Maartje H J; van Wolferen, Job

    2015-04-01

    We tested whether the perceived physical attractiveness of a group is greater than the average attractiveness of its members. In nine studies, we find evidence for the so-called group attractiveness effect (GA-effect), using female, male, and mixed-gender groups, indicating that group impressions of physical attractiveness are more positive than the average ratings of the group members. A meta-analysis on 33 comparisons reveals that the effect is medium to large (Cohen's d = 0.60) and moderated by group size. We explored two explanations for the GA-effect: (a) selective attention to attractive group members, and (b) the Gestalt principle of similarity. The results of our studies are in favor of the selective attention account: People selectively attend to the most attractive members of a group and their attractiveness has a greater influence on the evaluation of the group.

  1. Effects of Surprisal and Locality on Danish Sentence Processing: An Eye-Tracking Investigation.

    PubMed

    Balling, Laura Winther; Kizach, Johannes

    2017-03-22

    An eye-tracking experiment in Danish investigates two dominant accounts of sentence processing: locality-based theories that predict a processing advantage for sentences where the distance between the major syntactic heads is minimized, and the surprisal theory which predicts that processing time increases with big changes in the relative entropy of possible parses, sometimes leading to anti-locality effects. We consider both lexicalised surprisal, expressed in conditional trigram probabilities, and syntactic surprisal expressed in the manipulation of the expectedness of the second NP in Danish constructions with two postverbal NP-objects. An eye-tracking experiment showed a clear advantage for local syntactic relations, with only a marginal effect of lexicalised surprisal and no effect of syntactic surprisal. We conclude that surprisal has a relatively marginal effect, which may be clearest for verbs in verb-final languages, while locality is a robust predictor of sentence processing.

  2. Trait Anxiety Is Associated with Negative Interpretations When Resolving Valence Ambiguity of Surprised Faces

    PubMed Central

    Park, Gewnhi; Vasey, Michael W.; Kim, Grace; Hu, Dixie D.; Thayer, Julian F.

    2016-01-01

    The current research examines whether trait anxiety is associated with negative interpretation bias when resolving valence ambiguity of surprised faces. To further isolate the neuro-cognitive mechanism, we presented angry, happy, and surprised faces at broad spatial frequency (BSF), high spatial frequency (HSF), and low spatial frequency (LSF) and asked participants to determine the valence of each face. High trait anxiety was associated with more negative interpretations of BSF (i.e., intact) surprised faces. However, the modulation of trait anxiety on the negative interpretation of surprised faces disappeared at HSF and LSF. The current study provides evidence that trait anxiety modulates negative interpretations of BSF surprised faces. However, the negative interpretation of LSF surprised faces appears to be a robust default response that occurs regardless of individual differences in trait anxiety. PMID:27536266

  3. Trait Anxiety Is Associated with Negative Interpretations When Resolving Valence Ambiguity of Surprised Faces.

    PubMed

    Park, Gewnhi; Vasey, Michael W; Kim, Grace; Hu, Dixie D; Thayer, Julian F

    2016-01-01

    The current research examines whether trait anxiety is associated with negative interpretation bias when resolving valence ambiguity of surprised faces. To further isolate the neuro-cognitive mechanism, we presented angry, happy, and surprised faces at broad spatial frequency (BSF), high spatial frequency (HSF), and low spatial frequency (LSF) and asked participants to determine the valence of each face. High trait anxiety was associated with more negative interpretations of BSF (i.e., intact) surprised faces. However, the modulation of trait anxiety on the negative interpretation of surprised faces disappeared at HSF and LSF. The current study provides evidence that trait anxiety modulates negative interpretations of BSF surprised faces. However, the negative interpretation of LSF surprised faces appears to be a robust default response that occurs regardless of individual differences in trait anxiety.

  4. Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature.

    PubMed

    Biedermann, A; Taroni, F

    2012-03-01

    Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The biasing effects of appearances go beyond physical attractiveness and mating motives.

    PubMed

    Olivola, Christopher Y; Todorov, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    The influence of appearances goes well beyond physical attractiveness and includes the surprisingly powerful impact of "face-ism" - the tendency to stereotype individuals based on their facial features. A growing body of research has revealed that these face-based social attributions bias the outcomes of labor markets and experimental economic games in ways that are hard to explain via evolutionary mating motives.

  6. Attracting Girls into Physics (abstract)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadalla, Afaf

    2009-04-01

    A recent international study of women in physics showed that enrollment in physics and science is declining for both males and females and that women are severely underrepresented in careers requiring a strong physics background. The gender gap begins early in the pipeline, from the first grade. Girls are treated differently than boys at home and in society in ways that often hinder their chances for success. They have fewer freedoms, are discouraged from accessing resources or being adventurous, have far less exposure to problem solving, and are not encouraged to choose their lives. In order to motivate more girl students to study physics in the Assiut governorate of Egypt, the Assiut Alliance for the Women and Assiut Education District collaborated in renovating the education of physics in middle and secondary school classrooms. A program that helps in increasing the number of girls in science and physics has been designed in which informal groupings are organized at middle and secondary schools to involve girls in the training and experiences needed to attract and encourage girls to learn physics. During implementation of the program at some schools, girls, because they had not been trained in problem-solving as boys, appeared not to be as facile in abstracting the ideas of physics, and that was the primary reason for girls dropping out of science and physics. This could be overcome by holding a topical physics and technology summer school under the supervision of the Assiut Alliance for the Women.

  7. High Heels Increase Women's Attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Guéguen, Nicolas

    2015-11-01

    Research has found that the appearance of women's apparel helps increase their attractiveness as rated by men and that men care more about physical features in potential opposite-sex mates. However, the effect of sartorial appearance has received little interest from scientists. In a series of studies, the length of women's shoe heels was examined. A woman confederate wearing black shoes with 0, 5, or 9 cm heels asked men for help in various circumstances. In Study 1, she asked men to respond to a short survey on gender equality. In Study 2, the confederate asked men and women to participate in a survey on local food habit consumption. In Study 3, men and women in the street were observed while walking in back of the female confederate who dropped a glove apparently unaware of her loss. It was found that men's helping behavior increased as soon as heel length increased. However, heel length had no effect on women's helping behavior. It was also found that men spontaneously approached women more quickly when they wore high-heeled shoes (Study 4). Change in gait, foot-size judgment, and misattribution of sexiness and sexual intent were used as possible explanations.

  8. A local approach for focussed Bayesian fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael; Goussev, Igor; Beyerer, Jürgen

    2009-04-01

    Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim to reduce high storage and computational costs of Bayesian fusion which is separated from fixed modeling assumptions. Using the small world formalism, we argue why this proceeding is conform with Bayesian theory. Then, we concentrate on the realization of local Bayesian fusion by focussing the fusion process solely on local regions that are task relevant with a high probability. The resulting local models correspond then to restricted versions of the original one. In a previous publication, we used bounds for the probability of misleading evidence to show the validity of the pre-evaluation of task specific knowledge and prior information which we perform to build local models. In this paper, we prove the validity of this proceeding using information theoretic arguments. For additional efficiency, local Bayesian fusion can be realized in a distributed manner. Here, several local Bayesian fusion tasks are evaluated and unified after the actual fusion process. For the practical realization of distributed local Bayesian fusion, software agents are predestinated. There is a natural analogy between the resulting agent based architecture and criminal investigations in real life. We show how this analogy can be used to improve the efficiency of distributed local Bayesian fusion additionally. Using a landscape model, we present an experimental study of distributed local Bayesian fusion in the field of reconnaissance, which highlights its high potential.

  9. Variational bayesian method of estimating variance components.

    PubMed

    Arakawa, Aisaku; Taniguchi, Masaaki; Hayashi, Takeshi; Mikawa, Satoshi

    2016-07-01

    We developed a Bayesian analysis approach by using a variational inference method, a so-called variational Bayesian method, to determine the posterior distributions of variance components. This variational Bayesian method and an alternative Bayesian method using Gibbs sampling were compared in estimating genetic and residual variance components from both simulated data and publically available real pig data. In the simulated data set, we observed strong bias toward overestimation of genetic variance for the variational Bayesian method in the case of low heritability and low population size, and less bias was detected with larger population sizes in both methods examined. The differences in the estimates of variance components between the variational Bayesian and the Gibbs sampling were not found in the real pig data. However, the posterior distributions of the variance components obtained with the variational Bayesian method had shorter tails than those obtained with the Gibbs sampling. Consequently, the posterior standard deviations of the genetic and residual variances of the variational Bayesian method were lower than those of the method using Gibbs sampling. The computing time required was much shorter with the variational Bayesian method than with the method using Gibbs sampling. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  10. A Neural Mechanism for Surprise-related Interruptions of Visuospatial Working Memory.

    PubMed

    Wessel, Jan R

    2016-11-30

    Surprising perceptual events recruit a fronto-basal ganglia mechanism for inhibition, which suppresses motor activity following surprise. A recent study found that this inhibitory mechanism also disrupts the maintenance of verbal working memory (WM) after surprising tones. However, it is unclear whether this same mechanism also relates to surprise-related interruptions of non-verbal WM. We tested this hypothesis using a change-detection task, in which surprising tones impaired visuospatial WM. Participants also performed a stop-signal task (SST). We used independent component analysis and single-trial scalp-electroencephalogram to test whether the same inhibitory mechanism that reflects motor inhibition in the SST relates to surprise-related visuospatial WM decrements, as was the case for verbal WM. As expected, surprising tones elicited activity of the inhibitory mechanism, and this activity correlated strongly with the trial-by-trial level of surprise. However, unlike for verbal WM, the activity of this mechanism was unrelated to visuospatial WM accuracy. Instead, inhibition-independent activity that immediately succeeded the inhibitory mechanism was increased when visuospatial WM was disrupted. This shows that surprise-related interruptions of visuospatial WM are not effected by the same inhibitory mechanism that interrupts verbal WM, and instead provides evidence for a 2-stage model of distraction.

  11. The Bayesian Reader: Explaining Word Recognition as an Optimal Bayesian Decision Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norris, Dennis

    2006-01-01

    This article presents a theory of visual word recognition that assumes that, in the tasks of word identification, lexical decision, and semantic categorization, human readers behave as optimal Bayesian decision makers. This leads to the development of a computational model of word recognition, the Bayesian reader. The Bayesian reader successfully…

  12. Effects of Instructor Attractiveness on Learning.

    PubMed

    Westfall, Richard; Millar, Murray; Walsh, Mandy

    2016-01-01

    Although a considerable body of research has examined the impact of student attractiveness on instructors, little attention has been given to the influence of instructor attractiveness on students. This study tested the hypothesis that persons would perform significantly better on a learning task when they perceived their instructor to be high in physical attractiveness. To test the hypothesis, participants listened to an audio lecture while viewing a photograph of instructor. The photograph depicted either a physically attractive instructor or a less attractive instructor. Following the lecture, participants completed a forced choice recognition task covering material from the lecture. Consistent with the predictions; attractive instructors were associated with more learning. Finally, we replicated previous findings demonstrating the role attractiveness plays in person perception.

  13. Attractive faces temporally modulate visual attention

    PubMed Central

    Nakamura, Koyo; Kawabata, Hideaki

    2014-01-01

    Facial attractiveness is an important biological and social signal on social interaction. Recent research has demonstrated that an attractive face captures greater spatial attention than an unattractive face does. Little is known, however, about the temporal characteristics of visual attention for facial attractiveness. In this study, we investigated the temporal modulation of visual attention induced by facial attractiveness by using a rapid serial visual presentation. Fourteen male faces and two female faces were successively presented for 160 ms, respectively, and participants were asked to identify two female faces embedded among a series of multiple male distractor faces. Identification of a second female target (T2) was impaired when a first target (T1) was attractive compared to neutral or unattractive faces, at 320 ms stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA); identification was improved when T1 was attractive compared to unattractive faces at 640 ms SOA. These findings suggest that the spontaneous appraisal of facial attractiveness modulates temporal attention. PMID:24994994

  14. A statistical model of facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Said, Christopher P; Todorov, Alexander

    2011-09-01

    Previous research has identified facial averageness and sexual dimorphism as important factors in facial attractiveness. The averageness and sexual dimorphism accounts provide important first steps in understanding what makes faces attractive, and should be valued for their parsimony. However, we show that they explain relatively little of the variance in facial attractiveness, particularly for male faces. As an alternative to these accounts, we built a regression model that defines attractiveness as a function of a face's position in a multidimensional face space. The model provides much more predictive power than the averageness and sexual dimorphism accounts and reveals previously unreported components of attractiveness. The model shows that averageness is attractive in some dimensions but not in others and resolves previous contradictory reports about the effects of sexual dimorphism on the attractiveness of male faces.

  15. Romantic attraction and adolescent smoking trajectories.

    PubMed

    Pollard, Michael S; Tucker, Joan S; Green, Harold D; Kennedy, David P; Go, Myong-Hyun

    2011-12-01

    Research on sexual orientation and substance use has established that lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals are more likely to smoke than heterosexuals. This analysis furthers the examination of smoking behaviors across sexual orientation groups by describing how same- and opposite-sex romantic attraction, and changes in romantic attraction, are associated with distinct six-year developmental trajectories of smoking. The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health dataset is used to test our hypotheses. Multinomial logistic regressions predicting smoking trajectory membership as a function of romantic attraction were separately estimated for men and women. Romantic attraction effects were found only for women. The change from self-reported heterosexual attraction to lesbian or bisexual attraction was more predictive of higher smoking trajectories than was a consistent lesbian or bisexual attraction, with potentially important differences between the smoking patterns of these two groups. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  17. Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, John

    2009-12-01

    Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.

  18. Attention in a Bayesian Framework

    PubMed Central

    Whiteley, Louise; Sahani, Maneesh

    2012-01-01

    The behavioral phenomena of sensory attention are thought to reflect the allocation of a limited processing resource, but there is little consensus on the nature of the resource or why it should be limited. Here we argue that a fundamental bottleneck emerges naturally within Bayesian models of perception, and use this observation to frame a new computational account of the need for, and action of, attention – unifying diverse attentional phenomena in a way that goes beyond previous inferential, probabilistic and Bayesian models. Attentional effects are most evident in cluttered environments, and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental settings, where cues shape expectations about a small number of upcoming stimuli and thus convey “prior” information about clearly defined objects. While operationally consistent with the experiments it seeks to describe, this view of attention as prior seems to miss many essential elements of both its selective and integrative roles, and thus cannot be easily extended to complex environments. We suggest that the resource bottleneck stems from the computational intractability of exact perceptual inference in complex settings, and that attention reflects an evolved mechanism for approximate inference which can be shaped to refine the local accuracy of perception. We show that this approach extends the simple picture of attention as prior, so as to provide a unified and computationally driven account of both selective and integrative attentional phenomena. PMID:22712010

  19. Bayesian population receptive field modelling.

    PubMed

    Zeidman, Peter; Silson, Edward Harry; Schwarzkopf, Dietrich Samuel; Baker, Chris Ian; Penny, Will

    2017-09-08

    We introduce a probabilistic (Bayesian) framework and associated software toolbox for mapping population receptive fields (pRFs) based on fMRI data. This generic approach is intended to work with stimuli of any dimension and is demonstrated and validated in the context of 2D retinotopic mapping. The framework enables the experimenter to specify generative (encoding) models of fMRI timeseries, in which experimental stimuli enter a pRF model of neural activity, which in turns drives a nonlinear model of neurovascular coupling and Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) response. The neuronal and haemodynamic parameters are estimated together on a voxel-by-voxel or region-of-interest basis using a Bayesian estimation algorithm (variational Laplace). This offers several novel contributions to receptive field modelling. The variance/covariance of parameters are estimated, enabling receptive fields to be plotted while properly representing uncertainty about pRF size and location. Variability in the haemodynamic response across the brain is accounted for. Furthermore, the framework introduces formal hypothesis testing to pRF analysis, enabling competing models to be evaluated based on their log model evidence (approximated by the variational free energy), which represents the optimal tradeoff between accuracy and complexity. Using simulations and empirical data, we found that parameters typically used to represent pRF size and neuronal scaling are strongly correlated, which is taken into account by the Bayesian methods we describe when making inferences. We used the framework to compare the evidence for six variants of pRF model using 7 T functional MRI data and we found a circular Difference of Gaussians (DoG) model to be the best explanation for our data overall. We hope this framework will prove useful for mapping stimulus spaces with any number of dimensions onto the anatomy of the brain. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Miscalibrations in judgements of attractiveness with cosmetics.

    PubMed

    Jones, Alex L; Kramer, Robin S S; Ward, Robert

    2014-10-01

    Women use cosmetics to enhance their attractiveness. How successful they are in doing so remains unknown--how do men and women respond to cosmetics use in terms of attractiveness? There are a variety of miscalibrations where attractiveness is concerned--often, what one sex thinks the opposite sex finds attractive is incorrect. Here, we investigated observer perceptions about attractiveness and cosmetics, as well as their understanding of what others would find attractive. We used computer graphic techniques to allow observers to vary the amount of cosmetics applied to a series of female faces. We asked observers to optimize attractiveness for themselves, for what they thought women in general would prefer, and what they thought men in general would prefer. We found that men and women agree on the amount of cosmetics they find attractive, but overestimate the preferences of women and, when considering the preferences of men, overestimate even more. We also find that models' self-applied cosmetics are far in excess of individual preferences. These findings suggest that attractiveness perceptions with cosmetics are a form of pluralistic ignorance, whereby women tailor their cosmetics use to an inaccurate perception of others' preferences. These findings also highlight further miscalibrations of attractiveness ideals.

  1. Facial shape and judgements of female attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Perrett, D I; May, K A; Yoshikawa, S

    1994-03-17

    The finding that photographic and digital composites (blends) of faces are considered to be attractive has led to the claim that attractiveness is averageness. This would encourage stabilizing selection, favouring phenotypes with an average facial structure. The 'averageness hypothesis' would account for the low distinctiveness of attractive faces but is difficult to reconcile with the finding that some facial measurements correlate with attractiveness. An average face shape is attractive but may not be optimally attractive. Human preferences may exert directional selection pressures, as with the phenomena of optimal outbreeding and sexual selection for extreme characteristics. Using composite faces, we show here that, contrary to the averageness hypothesis, the mean shape of a set of attractive faces is preferred to the mean shape of the sample from which the faces were selected. In addition, attractive composites can be made more attractive by exaggerating the shape differences from the sample mean. Japanese and caucasian observers showed the same direction of preferences for the same facial composites, suggesting that aesthetic judgements of face shape are similar across different cultural backgrounds. Our finding that highly attractive facial configurations are not average shows that preferences could exert a directional selection pressure on the evolution of human face shape.

  2. Bayesian homeopathy: talking normal again.

    PubMed

    Rutten, A L B

    2007-04-01

    Homeopathy has a communication problem: important homeopathic concepts are not understood by conventional colleagues. Homeopathic terminology seems to be comprehensible only after practical experience of homeopathy. The main problem lies in different handling of diagnosis. In conventional medicine diagnosis is the starting point for randomised controlled trials to determine the effect of treatment. In homeopathy diagnosis is combined with other symptoms and personal traits of the patient to guide treatment and predict response. Broadening our scope to include diagnostic as well as treatment research opens the possibility of multi factorial reasoning. Adopting Bayesian methodology opens the possibility of investigating homeopathy in everyday practice and of describing some aspects of homeopathy in conventional terms.

  3. Bayesian estimation of genomic distance.

    PubMed Central

    Durrett, Richard; Nielsen, Rasmus; York, Thomas L

    2004-01-01

    We present a Bayesian approach to the problem of inferring the number of inversions and translocations separating two species. The main reason for developing this method is that it will allow us to test hypotheses about the underlying mechanisms, such as the distribution of inversion track lengths or rate constancy among lineages. Here, we apply these methods to comparative maps of eggplant and tomato, human and cat, and human and cattle with 170, 269, and 422 markers, respectively. In the first case the most likely number of events is larger than the parsimony value. In the last two cases the parsimony solutions have very small probability. PMID:15020449

  4. Approximation for Bayesian Ability Estimation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-02-18

    posterior pdfs of ande are given by p(-[Y) p(F) F P((y lei’ j)P )d. SiiJ i (4) a r~d p(e Iy) - p(t0) 1 J i P(Yij ei, (5) As shown in Tsutakawa and Lin...inverse A Hessian of the log of (27) with respect to , evaulatedat a Then, under regularity conditions, the marginal posterior pdf of O is...two-way contingency tables. Journal of Educational Statistics, 11, 33-56. Lindley, D.V. (1980). Approximate Bayesian methods. Trabajos Estadistica , 31

  5. Bayesian tests of measurement invariance.

    PubMed

    Verhagen, A J; Fox, J P

    2013-11-01

    Random item effects models provide a natural framework for the exploration of violations of measurement invariance without the need for anchor items. Within the random item effects modelling framework, Bayesian tests (Bayes factor, deviance information criterion) are proposed which enable multiple marginal invariance hypotheses to be tested simultaneously. The performance of the tests is evaluated with a simulation study which shows that the tests have high power and low Type I error rate. Data from the European Social Survey are used to test for measurement invariance of attitude towards immigrant items and to show that background information can be used to explain cross-national variation in item functioning.

  6. Software For Multivariate Bayesian Classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saul, Ronald; Laird, Philip; Shelton, Robert

    1996-01-01

    PHD general-purpose classifier computer program. Uses Bayesian methods to classify vectors of real numbers, based on combination of statistical techniques that include multivariate density estimation, Parzen density kernels, and EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm. By means of simple graphical interface, user trains classifier to recognize two or more classes of data and then use it to identify new data. Written in ANSI C for Unix systems and optimized for online classification applications. Embedded in another program, or runs by itself using simple graphical-user-interface. Online help files makes program easy to use.

  7. The Effect of Surprising Events in a Serious Game on Learning Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wouters, Pieter; van Oostendorp, Herre; ter Vrugte, Judith; vanderCruysse, Sylke; de Jong, Ton; Elen, Jan

    2017-01-01

    The challenge in serious games is to improve the effectiveness of learning by stimulating relevant cognitive processes. In this paper, we investigate the potential of surprise in two experiments with prevocational students in the domain of proportional reasoning. Surprise involves an emotional reaction, but it also serves a cognitive goal as it…

  8. Finding the SurPriSe: A Case Study of a Faculty Learning Community

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Michel, Roberta M.

    2014-01-01

    This article details a faculty learning community (FLC) that started in 2009 on the campus of a Midwestern University and has evolved into an interdisciplinary research, teaching and social community of practice and learning called SurPriSe. SurPriSe is an acronym that reflects the interest area of the FLC; Sur for surveillance, Pri for privacy,…

  9. What's that sound? Auditory area CLM encodes stimulus surprise, not intensity or intensity changes.

    PubMed

    Gill, Patrick; Woolley, Sarah M N; Fremouw, Thane; Theunissen, Frédéric E

    2008-06-01

    High-level sensory neurons encoding natural stimuli are not well described by linear models operating on the time-varying stimulus intensity. Here we show that firing rates of neurons in a secondary sensory forebrain area can be better modeled by linear functions of how surprising the stimulus is. We modeled auditory neurons in the caudal lateral mesopallium (CLM) of adult male zebra finches under urethane anesthesia with linear filters convolved not with stimulus intensity, but with stimulus surprise. Surprise was quantified as the logarithm of the probability of the stimulus given the local recent stimulus history and expectations based on conspecific song. Using our surprise method, the predictions of neural responses to conspecific song improved by 67% relative to those obtained using stimulus intensity. Similar prediction improvements cannot be replicated by assuming CLM performs derivative detection. The explanatory power of surprise increased from the midbrain through the primary forebrain and to CLM. When the stimulus presented was a random synthetic ripple noise, CLM neurons (but not neurons in lower auditory areas) were best described as if they were expecting conspecific song, finding the inconsistencies between birdsong and noise surprising. In summary, spikes in CLM neurons indicate stimulus surprise more than they indicate stimulus intensity features. The concept of stimulus surprise may be useful for modeling neural responses in other higher-order sensory areas whose functions have been poorly understood.

  10. Distinct medial temporal networks encode surprise during motivation by reward versus punishment.

    PubMed

    Murty, Vishnu P; LaBar, Kevin S; Adcock, R Alison

    2016-10-01

    Adaptive motivated behavior requires predictive internal representations of the environment, and surprising events are indications for encoding new representations of the environment. The medial temporal lobe memory system, including the hippocampus and surrounding cortex, encodes surprising events and is influenced by motivational state. Because behavior reflects the goals of an individual, we investigated whether motivational valence (i.e., pursuing rewards versus avoiding punishments) also impacts neural and mnemonic encoding of surprising events. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants encountered perceptually unexpected events either during the pursuit of rewards or avoidance of punishments. Despite similar levels of motivation across groups, reward and punishment facilitated the processing of surprising events in different medial temporal lobe regions. Whereas during reward motivation, perceptual surprises enhanced activation in the hippocampus, during punishment motivation surprises instead enhanced activation in parahippocampal cortex. Further, we found that reward motivation facilitated hippocampal coupling with ventromedial PFC, whereas punishment motivation facilitated parahippocampal cortical coupling with orbitofrontal cortex. Behaviorally, post-scan testing revealed that reward, but not punishment, motivation resulted in greater memory selectivity for surprising events encountered during goal pursuit. Together these findings demonstrate that neuromodulatory systems engaged by anticipation of reward and punishment target separate components of the medial temporal lobe, modulating medial temporal lobe sensitivity and connectivity. Thus, reward and punishment motivation yield distinct neural contexts for learning, with distinct consequences for how surprises are incorporated into predictive mnemonic models of the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Distinct medial temporal networks encode surprise during motivation by reward versus punishment

    PubMed Central

    Murty, Vishnu P.; LaBar, Kevin S.; Adcock, R. Alison

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive motivated behavior requires predictive internal representations of the environment, and surprising events are indications for encoding new representations of the environment. The medial temporal lobe memory system, including the hippocampus and surrounding cortex, encodes surprising events and is influenced by motivational state. Because behavior reflects the goals of an individual, we investigated whether motivational valence (i.e., pursuing rewards versus avoiding punishments) also impacts neural and mnemonic encoding of surprising events. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants encountered perceptually unexpected events either during the pursuit of rewards or avoidance of punishments. Despite similar levels of motivation across groups, reward and punishment facilitated the processing of surprising events in different medial temporal lobe regions. Whereas during reward motivation, perceptual surprises enhanced activation in the hippocampus, during punishment motivation surprises instead enhanced activation in parahippocampal cortex. Further, we found that reward motivation facilitated hippocampal coupling with ventromedial PFC, whereas punishment motivation facilitated parahippocampal cortical coupling with orbitofrontal cortex. Behaviorally, post-scan testing revealed that reward, but not punishment, motivation resulted in greater memory selectivity for surprising events encountered during goal pursuit. Together these findings demonstrate that neuromodulatory systems engaged by anticipation of reward and punishment target separate components of the medial temporal lobe, modulating medial temporal lobe sensitivity and connectivity. Thus, reward and punishment motivation yield distinct neural contexts for learning, with distinct consequences for how surprises are incorporated into predictive mnemonic models of the environment. PMID:26854903

  12. Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

  13. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-09

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: A Bayesian approach, based on updating prior information in light of new observations, via Bayes’s formula, has both nice...Prediction and Inference Report Title A Bayesian approach, based on updating prior information in light of new observations, via Bayes’s formula, has both

  14. Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Kevin R.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Castle, Joseph P.; Lvov, Nikolay

    2005-01-01

    The following concepts were introduced: a) Bayesian adaptive sampling for solving biomass estimation; b) Characterization of MISR Rahman model parameters conditioned upon MODIS landcover. c) Rigorous non-parametric Bayesian approach to analytic mixture model determination. d) Unique U.S. asset for science product validation and verification.

  15. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  16. Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

    2004-01-01

    The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

  17. Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

    2004-01-01

    The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

  18. Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

  19. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Treesearch

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  20. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  1. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  2. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  3. Bayesian inference in physics: case studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dose, V.

    2003-09-01

    This report describes the Bayesian approach to probability theory with emphasis on the application to the evaluation of experimental data. A brief summary of Bayesian principles is given, with a discussion of concepts, terminology and pitfalls. The step from Bayesian principles to data processing involves major numerical efforts. We address the presently employed procedures of numerical integration, which are mainly based on the Monte Carlo method. The case studies include examples from electron spectroscopies, plasma physics, ion beam analysis and mass spectrometry. Bayesian solutions to the ubiquitous problem of spectrum restoration are presented and advantages and limitations are discussed. Parameter estimation within the Bayesian framework is shown to allow for the incorporation of expert knowledge which in turn allows the treatment of under-determined problems which are inaccessible by the traditional maximum likelihood method. A unique and extremely valuable feature of Bayesian theory is the model comparison option. Bayesian model comparison rests on Ockham's razor which limits the complexity of a model to the amount necessary to explain the data without fitting noise. Finally we deal with the treatment of inconsistent data. They arise frequently in experimental work either from incorrect estimation of the errors associated with a measurement or alternatively from distortions of the measurement signal by some unrecognized spurious source. Bayesian data analysis sometimes meets with spectacular success. However, the approach cannot do wonders, but it does result in optimal robust inferences on the basis of all available and explicitly declared information.

  4. Bayesian learning theory applied to human cognition.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Robert A; Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic models based on Bayes' rule are an increasingly popular approach to understanding human cognition. Bayesian models allow immense representational latitude and complexity. Because they use normative Bayesian mathematics to process those representations, they define optimal performance on a given task. This article focuses on key mechanisms of Bayesian information processing, and provides numerous examples illustrating Bayesian approaches to the study of human cognition. We start by providing an overview of Bayesian modeling and Bayesian networks. We then describe three types of information processing operations-inference, parameter learning, and structure learning-in both Bayesian networks and human cognition. This is followed by a discussion of the important roles of prior knowledge and of active learning. We conclude by outlining some challenges for Bayesian models of human cognition that will need to be addressed by future research. WIREs Cogn Sci 2011 2 8-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.80 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  5. Optional stopping: no problem for Bayesians.

    PubMed

    Rouder, Jeffrey N

    2014-04-01

    Optional stopping refers to the practice of peeking at data and then, based on the results, deciding whether or not to continue an experiment. In the context of ordinary significance-testing analysis, optional stopping is discouraged, because it necessarily leads to increased type I error rates over nominal values. This article addresses whether optional stopping is problematic for Bayesian inference with Bayes factors. Statisticians who developed Bayesian methods thought not, but this wisdom has been challenged by recent simulation results of Yu, Sprenger, Thomas, and Dougherty (2013) and Sanborn and Hills (2013). In this article, I show through simulation that the interpretation of Bayesian quantities does not depend on the stopping rule. Researchers using Bayesian methods may employ optional stopping in their own research and may provide Bayesian analysis of secondary data regardless of the employed stopping rule. I emphasize here the proper interpretation of Bayesian quantities as measures of subjective belief on theoretical positions, the difference between frequentist and Bayesian interpretations, and the difficulty of using frequentist intuition to conceptualize the Bayesian approach.

  6. Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van de Sande, Brett

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

  7. The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shultz, Thomas R.

    2007-01-01

    This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

  8. The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shultz, Thomas R.

    2007-01-01

    This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

  9. Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van de Sande, Brett

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

  10. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  11. bmcmc: MCMC package for Bayesian data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Sanjib

    2017-09-01

    bmcmc is a general purpose Markov Chain Monte Carlo package for Bayesian data analysis. It uses an adaptive scheme for automatic tuning of proposal distributions. It can also handle Bayesian hierarchical models by making use of the Metropolis-Within-Gibbs scheme.

  12. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  13. Attraction of male mosquitoes to sound.

    PubMed

    Belton, P

    1994-06-01

    Early observations and experiments on the attraction of male mosquitoes are reviewed briefly. Our present inadequate knowledge of the physiology of sound receptors is summarized and some of the hypotheses to explain direction finding in flying male mosquitoes are discussed. Some of the field tests carried out to attract mosquitoes to traps with sound, alone or combined with other attractants, are described and the potential for using sounds in mass trapping or sterilizing and releasing mosquitoes is assessed.

  14. Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

    PubMed Central

    MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

  15. Hepatitis disease detection using Bayesian theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maseleno, Andino; Hidayati, Rohmah Zahroh

    2017-02-01

    This paper presents hepatitis disease diagnosis using a Bayesian theory for better understanding of the theory. In this research, we used a Bayesian theory for detecting hepatitis disease and displaying the result of diagnosis process. Bayesian algorithm theory is rediscovered and perfected by Laplace, the basic idea is using of the known prior probability and conditional probability density parameter, based on Bayes theorem to calculate the corresponding posterior probability, and then obtained the posterior probability to infer and make decisions. Bayesian methods combine existing knowledge, prior probabilities, with additional knowledge derived from new data, the likelihood function. The initial symptoms of hepatitis which include malaise, fever and headache. The probability of hepatitis given the presence of malaise, fever, and headache. The result revealed that a Bayesian theory has successfully identified the existence of hepatitis disease.

  16. [Pulmonary nodule: a bayesian approach].

    PubMed

    Meert, A-P

    2010-01-01

    A solitary pulmonary nodule is a common clinical problem. It is usually detected incidentally. The prevalence of solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) in the lung cancer screening study varies from 8 to 50% (with a prevalence of malignant nodule from 1 to 13%). The bayesian approach can help us to identify promptly malignant nodule in order to treat them surgically and to avoid surgery for benign nodules. Therefore, it is needed to estimate the probability of cancer (Pca) in the SPN. Likelihood ratio (LR) for overall prevalence of malignancy and for different clinical and radiological information (age, smoking exposure, symptoms, cancer history, nodule size, spiculation, calcification, location, growth...) can be obtained from the literature. The odds of cancer-malignancy (odds ca) can be calculated by multiplying all of these LRs together. The Pca = odds ca/1+odds ca. Using this bayeasian approach, the probability of cancer based on an abnormal or normal fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scan has been estimated. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of PET scan are respectively about 90%, 83%, 92% and 90%. Moreover, the LR for malignancy are higher with an abnormal PET scan when compared to most clinical and radiological LRs. Today, the Bayesian approach of SPN must include PET scan.

  17. Bayesian Models of Individual Differences

    PubMed Central

    Powell, Georgie; Meredith, Zoe; McMillin, Rebecca; Freeman, Tom C. A.

    2016-01-01

    According to Bayesian models, perception and cognition depend on the optimal combination of noisy incoming evidence with prior knowledge of the world. Individual differences in perception should therefore be jointly determined by a person’s sensitivity to incoming evidence and his or her prior expectations. It has been proposed that individuals with autism have flatter prior distributions than do nonautistic individuals, which suggests that prior variance is linked to the degree of autistic traits in the general population. We tested this idea by studying how perceived speed changes during pursuit eye movement and at low contrast. We found that individual differences in these two motion phenomena were predicted by differences in thresholds and autistic traits when combined in a quantitative Bayesian model. Our findings therefore support the flatter-prior hypothesis and suggest that individual differences in prior expectations are more systematic than previously thought. In order to be revealed, however, individual differences in sensitivity must also be taken into account. PMID:27770059

  18. Flexible Bayesian Human Fecundity Models.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sungduk; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Buck Louis, Germaine M; Pyper, Cecilia

    2012-12-01

    Human fecundity is an issue of considerable interest for both epidemiological and clinical audiences, and is dependent upon a couple's biologic capacity for reproduction coupled with behaviors that place a couple at risk for pregnancy. Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to better model the conception probabilities by accounting for the acts of intercourse around the day of ovulation, i.e., during the fertile window. These models can be viewed in the framework of a generalized nonlinear model with an exponential link. However, a fixed choice of link function may not always provide the best fit, leading to potentially biased estimates for probability of conception. Motivated by this, we propose a general class of models for fecundity by relaxing the choice of the link function under the generalized nonlinear model framework. We use a sample from the Oxford Conception Study (OCS) to illustrate the utility and fit of this general class of models for estimating human conception. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to be paid to the choice of link function in modeling conception, as it may bias the estimation of conception probabilities. Various properties of the proposed models are examined and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was developed for implementing the Bayesian computations. The deviance information criterion measure and logarithm of pseudo marginal likelihood are used for guiding the choice of links. The supplemental material section contains technical details of the proof of the theorem stated in the paper, and contains further simulation results and analysis.

  19. Bayesian Spectroscopy and Target Tracking

    SciTech Connect

    Cunningham, C

    2001-05-01

    Statistical analysis gives a paradigm for detection and tracking of weak-signature sources that are moving among a network of detectors. The detector platforms compute and exchange information with near-neighbors in the form of Bayesian probabilities for possible sources. This can shown to be an optimal scheme for the use of detector information and communication resources. Here, we apply that paradigm to the detection and discrimination of radiation sources using multi-channel gamma-ray spectra. We present algorithms for the reduction of detector data to probability estimates and the fusion of estimates among multiple detectors. A primary result is the development of a goodness-of-fit metric, similar to {chi}{sup 2}, for template matching that is statistically valid for spectral channels with low expected counts. Discrimination of a target source from other false sources and detection of imprecisely known spectra are the main applications considered. We use simulated NaI spectral data to demonstrate the Bayesian algorithm compare it to other techniques. Results of simulations of a network of spectrometers are presented, showing its capability to distinguish intended targets from nuisance sources.

  20. Nasal tip projection and facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Devcic, Zlatko; Rayikanti, Benjamin A; Hevia, Jesse P; Popenko, Natalie A; Karimi, Koohyar; Wong, Brian J F

    2011-07-01

    Six nasal tip projection (NTP) ratios from Goode, Simons, Baum, Powell, and Crumley guide clinical and academic practice on quantifying NTP, but none have been empirically correlated with facial attractiveness. This study's objectives were to determine: 1) if there is a correlation between these ratios and facial attractiveness; and 2) which of the six ratios has the greatest linkage to overall facial attractiveness. Basic research study. There were 300 digital portraits of women (ages 18-25 years) randomly paired and morphed to create 300 synthetic lateral facial images rated by 78 raters in the community. NTP ratios were measured in each portrait. None of the ratios correlated with facial attractiveness. For the Baum, Powell, and Simons ratio, facial attractiveness increased as NTP deviated 1 and 2 standard deviations from the ideal, whereas facial attractiveness decreased as NTP deviated from the Goode and Crumley ideal ratios. The most attractive faces had NTP ratios consistent with previous expert opinion findings. To our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically correlate these six landmark NTP ratios with facial attractiveness. Although there was no correlation with any of the six ratios, the ideal ratios proposed by Goode and Crumley impacted facial aesthetics the most. Although the ideal ratios are useful in establishing rhinoplasty guidelines, they should only be used as a part of the management in achieving an aesthetic face on the whole, as they may not be robust enough to correlate with overall facial attractiveness. Copyright © 2011 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

  1. A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Harmonic Surprise and Preference in Popular Music.

    PubMed

    Miles, Scott A; Rosen, David S; Grzywacz, Norberto M

    2017-01-01

    Studies have shown that some musical pieces may preferentially activate reward centers in the brain. Less is known, however, about the structural aspects of music that are associated with this activation. Based on the music cognition literature, we propose two hypotheses for why some musical pieces are preferred over others. The first, the Absolute-Surprise Hypothesis, states that unexpected events in music directly lead to pleasure. The second, the Contrastive-Surprise Hypothesis, proposes that the juxtaposition of unexpected events and subsequent expected events leads to an overall rewarding response. We tested these hypotheses within the framework of information theory, using the measure of "surprise." This information-theoretic variable mathematically describes how improbable an event is given a known distribution. We performed a statistical investigation of surprise in the harmonic structure of songs within a representative corpus of Western popular music, namely, the McGill Billboard Project corpus. We found that chords of songs in the top quartile of the Billboard chart showed greater average surprise than those in the bottom quartile. We also found that the different sections within top-quartile songs varied more in their average surprise than the sections within bottom-quartile songs. The results of this study are consistent with both the Absolute- and Contrastive-Surprise Hypotheses. Although these hypotheses seem contradictory to one another, we cannot yet discard the possibility that both absolute and contrastive types of surprise play roles in the enjoyment of popular music. We call this possibility the Hybrid-Surprise Hypothesis. The results of this statistical investigation have implications for both music cognition and the human neural mechanisms of esthetic judgments.

  2. Electron attraction mediated by Coulomb repulsion.

    PubMed

    Hamo, A; Benyamini, A; Shapir, I; Khivrich, I; Waissman, J; Kaasbjerg, K; Oreg, Y; von Oppen, F; Ilani, S

    2016-07-21

    One of the defining properties of electrons is their mutual Coulomb repulsion. However, in solids this basic property may change; for example, in superconductors, the coupling of electrons to lattice vibrations makes the electrons attract one another, leading to the formation of bound pairs. Fifty years ago it was proposed that electrons can be made attractive even when all of the degrees of freedom in the solid are electronic, by exploiting their repulsion from other electrons. This attraction mechanism, termed 'excitonic', promised to achieve stronger and more exotic superconductivity. Yet, despite an extensive search, experimental evidence for excitonic attraction has yet to be found. Here we demonstrate this attraction by constructing, from the bottom up, the fundamental building block of the excitonic mechanism. Our experiments are based on quantum devices made from pristine carbon nanotubes, combined with cryogenic precision manipulation. Using this platform, we demonstrate that two electrons can be made to attract each other using an independent electronic system as the 'glue' that mediates attraction. Owing to its tunability, our system offers insights into the underlying physics, such as the dependence of the emergent attraction on the underlying repulsion, and the origin of the pairing energy. We also demonstrate transport signatures of excitonic pairing. This experimental demonstration of excitonic pairing paves the way for the design of exotic states of matter.

  3. An innovative mosquito trap for testing attractants

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    We describe a simple trap modification for testing or using attractants to collect flying mosquitoes. The trap also can test the effectiveness of spatial repellents. The proposed design may facilitate standardized testing of mosquito attractants and repellents. The trap uses a standard Centers f...

  4. Reciprocity of Interpersonal Attraction: A Confirmed Hypothesis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    La Voie, Lawrence; Kenny, David A.

    An increase in reciprocity of interpersonal attraction during the early acquaintance period followed by continuing social reciprocity are propositions that are central principles of several social psychological viewpoints. However, there is little empirical evidence of increasing reciprocity of interpersonal attraction over time. Two potential…

  5. Interpersonal Attraction in the Counseling Relationship.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wachowiak, Dale; Diaz, Sandra

    Murstein's Stimulus-Value-Role theory of dyadic relationships, in which attraction depends on the exchange value of the assets and liabilities each person brings to the situation, is employed as a foundation for this review of the literature on interpersonal attraction in the counseling relationship. A three-stage model, accounting for both…

  6. Sexual Attractiveness of Males and Females.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Peggy; And Others

    The most important characteristics for females judging the attractiveness of males, and for males judging females, were eyes, body build and facial complexion. Previously, females tended to place less importance on physical components of attraction for both themselves and men. Possible interpretations are: (1) women have become more egalitarian…

  7. Correlates of Attraction Among Preschool Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Michael B.

    The generalizability of several variables which have been related to attraction among adults to preschool children was investigated. It was found that perceived physical attractiveness, perceived proximity, and familiarity are all significantly positively correlated with how popular a child is in his nursery school class. (Author)

  8. Formal Mentoring Programs and Organizational Attraction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allen, Tammy D.; O'Brien, Kimberly E.

    2006-01-01

    This study was designed to test if formal mentoring programs enhance organizational attraction. Participants were 190 undergraduates looking for a job related to their major. Results indicated that participants were more attracted to an organization when it was depicted as having a formal mentoring program than when it was not so depicted. Drawing…

  9. An objective system for measuring facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Bashour, Mounir

    2006-09-01

    Research over the past 20 years has shown that judgments of facial attractiveness are universal; people from all cultures and backgrounds rank and rate faces for attractiveness the same. As such a model for objectively rating facial attractiveness is theoretically plausible, if designed, it would have many uses, including outcomes analysis in plastic surgery of the face. The authors tested a schematic facial composite/prototype mathematical model (the phi mask created by Dr. Stephen Marquardt) as a method for measuring facial attractiveness in an objective manner. Thirty-seven male and 35 female faces of 18- to 30-year-old whites of European extraction were rated, as were 31 composite faces of each sex using both Internet and direct survey judges. The faces were tested against the phi mask model analyzing deviations of facial anthropometric points from corresponding phi mask nodal points using equivalent weightings, and weightings arrived at by way of multiple linear regression. The deviation from the phi mask significantly correlates with attractiveness, explaining from 25 to 75 percent of the variance in attractiveness judgments, depending on the methodology used. The phi mask model supports averageness or prototypicality of the face as being the major component of the facial attractiveness gestalt and is a first step in producing an objective system for measuring facial attractiveness.

  10. Sexual Attraction and Harassment: Management's New Problems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Driscoll, Jeanne Bosson

    1981-01-01

    Both sexual attraction and harassment must be dealt with if men and women are to develop truly productive working relationships. Key issues include policies on sexual attraction and harassment, availability of professional resources on the subjects, training, and the role of personnel specialists. (CT)

  11. Attraction, Discrepancy and Responses to Psychological Treatment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patton, Michael J.

    The responses of a laboratory subject (S) to a counselor-accomplice and to the psychological treatment situation are examined by manipulating experimentally interpersonal attraction and communication discrepancy. Four treatment conditions were set up: (1) topic similarity and positive attraction for counselor, (2) topic discrepancy and positive…

  12. Attitude Similarity, Topic Importance, and Psychotherapeutic Attraction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheney, Thomas

    1975-01-01

    The effect of attitude similarity and topic importance on attraction was studied by exposing 75 prison inmates, incarcerated for public intoxication, to varying attitudes of a psychotherapist. Subjects were more attracted to the therapist after receiving alcohol items regardless of degree of similarity expressed. (Author)

  13. Serial dependence in the perception of attractiveness

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Ye; Leib, Allison Yamanashi; Whitney, David

    2016-01-01

    The perception of attractiveness is essential for choices of food, object, and mate preference. Like perception of other visual features, perception of attractiveness is stable despite constant changes of image properties due to factors like occlusion, visual noise, and eye movements. Recent results demonstrate that perception of low-level stimulus features and even more complex attributes like human identity are biased towards recent percepts. This effect is often called serial dependence. Some recent studies have suggested that serial dependence also exists for perceived facial attractiveness, though there is also concern that the reported effects are due to response bias. Here we used an attractiveness-rating task to test the existence of serial dependence in perceived facial attractiveness. Our results demonstrate that perceived face attractiveness was pulled by the attractiveness level of facial images encountered up to 6 s prior. This effect was not due to response bias and did not rely on the previous motor response. This perceptual pull increased as the difference in attractiveness between previous and current stimuli increased. Our results reconcile previously conflicting findings and extend previous work, demonstrating that sequential dependence in perception operates across different levels of visual analysis, even at the highest levels of perceptual interpretation. PMID:28006077

  14. An Attributional Approach to Counselor Attractiveness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hackman, Hollis W.; Claiborn, Charles D.

    1982-01-01

    Examined two components of counselor attractiveness--perceived similarity and liking--in a comparison of two theoretical approaches to attractiveness and influence in counseling--the referent power hypothesis and an attributional approach. Results generally support the attributional approach over the reference power hypothesis. (Author)

  15. Serial dependence in the perception of attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Xia, Ye; Leib, Allison Yamanashi; Whitney, David

    2016-12-01

    The perception of attractiveness is essential for choices of food, object, and mate preference. Like perception of other visual features, perception of attractiveness is stable despite constant changes of image properties due to factors like occlusion, visual noise, and eye movements. Recent results demonstrate that perception of low-level stimulus features and even more complex attributes like human identity are biased towards recent percepts. This effect is often called serial dependence. Some recent studies have suggested that serial dependence also exists for perceived facial attractiveness, though there is also concern that the reported effects are due to response bias. Here we used an attractiveness-rating task to test the existence of serial dependence in perceived facial attractiveness. Our results demonstrate that perceived face attractiveness was pulled by the attractiveness level of facial images encountered up to 6 s prior. This effect was not due to response bias and did not rely on the previous motor response. This perceptual pull increased as the difference in attractiveness between previous and current stimuli increased. Our results reconcile previously conflicting findings and extend previous work, demonstrating that sequential dependence in perception operates across different levels of visual analysis, even at the highest levels of perceptual interpretation.

  16. Sexual Attraction and Harassment: Management's New Problems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Driscoll, Jeanne Bosson

    1981-01-01

    Both sexual attraction and harassment must be dealt with if men and women are to develop truly productive working relationships. Key issues include policies on sexual attraction and harassment, availability of professional resources on the subjects, training, and the role of personnel specialists. (CT)

  17. Electron attraction mediated by Coulomb repulsion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamo, A.; Benyamini, A.; Shapir, I.; Khivrich, I.; Waissman, J.; Kaasbjerg, K.; Oreg, Y.; von Oppen, F.; Ilani, S.

    2016-07-01

    One of the defining properties of electrons is their mutual Coulomb repulsion. However, in solids this basic property may change; for example, in superconductors, the coupling of electrons to lattice vibrations makes the electrons attract one another, leading to the formation of bound pairs. Fifty years ago it was proposed that electrons can be made attractive even when all of the degrees of freedom in the solid are electronic, by exploiting their repulsion from other electrons. This attraction mechanism, termed ‘excitonic’, promised to achieve stronger and more exotic superconductivity. Yet, despite an extensive search, experimental evidence for excitonic attraction has yet to be found. Here we demonstrate this attraction by constructing, from the bottom up, the fundamental building block of the excitonic mechanism. Our experiments are based on quantum devices made from pristine carbon nanotubes, combined with cryogenic precision manipulation. Using this platform, we demonstrate that two electrons can be made to attract each other using an independent electronic system as the ‘glue’ that mediates attraction. Owing to its tunability, our system offers insights into the underlying physics, such as the dependence of the emergent attraction on the underlying repulsion, and the origin of the pairing energy. We also demonstrate transport signatures of excitonic pairing. This experimental demonstration of excitonic pairing paves the way for the design of exotic states of matter.

  18. Brain Systems for Assessing Facial Attractiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winston, Joel S.; O'Doherty, John; Kilner, James M.; Perrett, David I.; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2007-01-01

    Attractiveness is a facial attribute that shapes human affiliative behaviours. In a previous study we reported a linear response to facial attractiveness in orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), a region involved in reward processing. There are strong theoretical grounds for the hypothesis that coding stimulus reward value also involves the amygdala. The…

  19. Expression of Power and Heterosexual Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeBlasio, Cynthia L.; Ellyson, Steve L.

    Facial attractiveness has been the focus of considerable research in social psychology. Nonverbal behaviors emitted by the face may affect the perceived attractiveness of males and females differently. Visual behavior has particularly important functions in regulating social interaction and in establishing and conveying social power. Power and…

  20. Sexual Attractiveness of Males and Females.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Peggy; And Others

    The most important characteristics for females judging the attractiveness of males, and for males judging females, were eyes, body build and facial complexion. Previously, females tended to place less importance on physical components of attraction for both themselves and men. Possible interpretations are: (1) women have become more egalitarian…

  1. Brain Systems for Assessing Facial Attractiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winston, Joel S.; O'Doherty, John; Kilner, James M.; Perrett, David I.; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2007-01-01

    Attractiveness is a facial attribute that shapes human affiliative behaviours. In a previous study we reported a linear response to facial attractiveness in orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), a region involved in reward processing. There are strong theoretical grounds for the hypothesis that coding stimulus reward value also involves the amygdala. The…

  2. Aging and Attractiveness: Marriage Makes a Difference.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Giesen, Carol Boellhoff

    1989-01-01

    Examined women's agreement with double standard of aging. Women (N=32) aged 28 to 63 shared definitions of attractiveness, femininity, and sexual appeal. Findings showed attractiveness was defined primarily by appearance, femininity by behavior and inferred traits, and sexual appeal by both. Found age differences among married women, but few age…

  3. Bayesian model selection: Evidence estimation based on DREAM simulation and bridge sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2017-04-01

    Bayesian inference has found widespread application in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, providing an effective tool for prediction, data assimilation, parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and hypothesis testing. Under multiple competing hypotheses, the Bayesian approach also provides an attractive alternative to traditional information criteria (e.g. AIC, BIC) for model selection. The key variable for Bayesian model selection is the evidence (or marginal likelihood) that is the normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes theorem; while it is fundamental for model selection, the evidence is not required for Bayesian inference. It is computed for each hypothesis (model) by averaging the likelihood function over the prior parameter distribution, rather than maximizing it as by information criteria; the larger a model evidence the more support it receives among a collection of hypothesis as the simulated values assign relatively high probability density to the observed data. Hence, the evidence naturally acts as an Occam's razor, preferring simpler and more constrained models against the selection of over-fitted ones by information criteria that incorporate only the likelihood maximum. Since it is not particularly easy to estimate the evidence in practice, Bayesian model selection via the marginal likelihood has not yet found mainstream use. We illustrate here the properties of a new estimator of the Bayesian model evidence, which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the marginal likelihood; the method is coined Gaussian Mixture Importance Sampling (GMIS). GMIS uses multidimensional numerical integration of the posterior parameter distribution via bridge sampling (a generalization of importance sampling) of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior distribution derived from the DREAM algorithm (Vrugt et al., 2008; 2009). Some illustrative examples are presented to show the robustness and superiority of the GMIS estimator with

  4. Historical Surprises

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stuewer, Roger H.

    2006-01-01

    The capsule histories of physics that students learn in their physics courses stem basically, I believe, from a linear view of history--that physicists in making fundamental discoveries follow a Royal Road to them, as Hermann von Helmholtz put it in 1892. The actual routes they follow, however, are generally nonlinear, and when historians display…

  5. October Surprises.

    PubMed

    2016-10-01

    Ushered in with the rampage of Hurricane Matthew, later days brightened in this month that has often been harbinger of both good and bad news for Cuba and the world. Hurricane Matthew ripped through Eastern Cuba, devastating the historic town of Baracoa (Cuba's first capital, founded in 1511) and the village of Maisí, where the morning sun first rises over Cuban territory. Wind and flood leveled hundreds of homes, brought down the power grid and destroyed crops. Yet there was no loss of human life, unlike in neighboring Haiti and other countries in Matthew's path, and unlike in Cuba in 1963, when Hurricane Flora caused more than 1200 deaths. In Haiti, efforts of health workers-including hundreds of Haitian graduates from Cuba's Latin American Medical School and 600 Cuban health professionals already there-were bolstered by dozens of specially trained Cuban disaster medical personnel in the wake of the storm.

  6. Summit surprises.

    PubMed

    Myers, N

    1994-01-01

    A New Delhi Population Summit, organized by the Royal Society, the US National Academy of Sciences, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and the Indian National Science Academy, was convened with representation of 120 (only 10% women) scientists from 50 countries and about 12 disciplines and 43 national scientific academies. Despite the common assumption that scientists never agree, a 3000 word statement was signed by 50 prominent national figures and supported by 25 professional papers on diverse subjects. The statement proclaimed that stable world population and "prodigious planning efforts" are required for dealing with global social, economic, and environmental problems. The target should be zero population growth by the next generation. The statement, although containing many uncompromising assertions, was not as strong as a statement by the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences released last year: that, in the future, science and technology may not be able to prevent "irreversible degradation of the environment and continued poverty," and that the capacity to sustain life on the planet may be permanently jeopardized. The Delhi statement was backed by professional papers highlighting several important issues. Dr Mahmoud Fathalla of the Rockefeller Foundation claimed that the 500,000 annual maternal deaths worldwide, of which perhaps 33% are due to "coathanger" abortions, are given far less attention than a one-day political event of 500 deaths would receive. Although biologically women have been given a greater survival advantage, which is associated with their reproductive capacity, socially disadvantaged females are relegated to low status. There is poorer nutrition and overall health care for females, female infanticide, and female fetuses are increasingly aborted in China, India, and other countries. The sex ratio in developed countries is 95-97 males to every 100 females, but in developing Asian countries the ratio is 105 males to 100 females. There are reports of 60-100 million missing females. The human species 12,000 years ago had a population of 6 million, a life expectancy of 20 years, and a doubling time of 8000 years; high birth rates were important for preservation of the species. Profertility attitudes are still prevalent today. Insufficient funds go to contraceptive research.

  7. Subcutaneous Surprise

    PubMed Central

    Jakribettu, RP; Boloor, R; D’Souza, R; Aithala, S

    2014-01-01

    Melioidosis is a zoonosis caused by the accidental pathogen Burkholderia pseudomallei, which is endemic in Southeast Asia and northern Australia. The mortality of melioidosis is 20-50% even with treatment. Suppurative lymphadenitis caused by melioidosis has been rarely encountered by clinicians practicing in endemic areas. In the majority of previously described patients, the infected lymph nodes were in the head and neck region, except for four patients who presented with unilateral, inguinal lymphadenitis. Hence, we report a case of unilateral suppurative inguinal lymphadenitis caused by B. pseudomallei in a 48-year-old lady who presented with groin swelling of 2 months duration. PMID:24669344

  8. Professional Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holland, George Adam

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of practicums in graduate programs for information management students. The benefits of such practicums are identified and explored and possible drawbacks discussed.

  9. Professional Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holland, George Adam

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of practicums in graduate programs for information management students. The benefits of such practicums are identified and explored and possible drawbacks discussed.

  10. Surprising Resists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Stephie

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses an art adventure with her third, fourth, and fifth grade enrichment kids to the Fort Collins Museum of Contemporary Art in Colorado. The author demonstrates and teaches her students how to use the art tissue paper and oil pastel complementing the creative spirit of the Jaune Quick-to-See Smith work presented…

  11. Historical Surprises

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stuewer, Roger H.

    2006-01-01

    The capsule histories of physics that students learn in their physics courses stem basically, I believe, from a linear view of history--that physicists in making fundamental discoveries follow a Royal Road to them, as Hermann von Helmholtz put it in 1892. The actual routes they follow, however, are generally nonlinear, and when historians display…

  12. Surprising Resists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Stephie

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses an art adventure with her third, fourth, and fifth grade enrichment kids to the Fort Collins Museum of Contemporary Art in Colorado. The author demonstrates and teaches her students how to use the art tissue paper and oil pastel complementing the creative spirit of the Jaune Quick-to-See Smith work presented…

  13. An Internet study of men sexually attracted to children: Sexual attraction patterns.

    PubMed

    Bailey, J Michael; Hsu, Kevin J; Bernhard, Paula A

    2016-10-01

    To our knowledge, this is the first large study of the attractions of child-attracted men recruited in any manner other than their being charged with legal offenses. We recruited 1,189 men from websites for adults attracted to children. Men in our sample were highly attracted to children, and they were much less attracted to adults, especially to adult men. However, men varied with respect to which combination of gender and age they found most attractive. Men in our sample were especially attracted to pubescent boys and prepubescent girls. Their self-reported attraction patterns closely tracked the age/gender gradient of sexual arousal established in prior research. Consistent with the gradient, men most attracted to prepubescent children were especially likely to have bisexual attractions to children. Pedohebephilia-attraction to sexually immature children-is best considered a collection of related if distinct sexual orientations, which vary in the particular combination of gender and sexual maturity that elicits greatest sexual attraction. Finally, our study reveals the potential power and efficiency of studying highly cooperative child-attracted men recruited via the Internet. (PsycINFO Database Record

  14. Visual perception of male body attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Fan, J; Dai, W; Liu, F; Wu, J

    2005-02-07

    Based on 69 scanned Chinese male subjects and 25 Caucasian male subjects, the present study showed that the volume height index (VHI) is the most important visual cue to male body attractiveness of young Chinese viewers among the many body parameters examined in the study. VHI alone can explain ca. 73% of the variance of male body attractiveness ratings. The effect of VHI can be fitted with two half bell-shaped exponential curves with an optimal VHI at 17.6 l m(-2) and 18.0 l m(-2) for female raters and male raters, respectively. In addition to VHI, other body parameters or ratios can have small, but significant effects on male body attractiveness. Body proportions associated with fitness will enhance male body attractiveness. It was also found that there is an optimal waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) at 0.8 and deviations from this optimal WHR reduce male body attractiveness.

  15. Cascaded Bayesian processes: an account of bias in orientation perception.

    PubMed

    Langley, Keith; Lefebvre, Veronique; Anderson, Stephen J

    2009-10-01

    Following adaptation to an oriented (1-d) signal in central vision, the orientation of subsequently viewed test signals may appear repelled away from or attracted towards the adapting orientation. Small angular differences between the adaptor and test yield 'repulsive' shifts, while large angular differences yield 'attractive' shifts. In peripheral vision, however, both small and large angular differences yield repulsive shifts. To account for these tilt after-effects (TAEs), a cascaded model of orientation estimation that is optimized using hierarchical Bayesian methods is proposed. The model accounts for orientation bias through adaptation-induced losses in information that arise because of signal uncertainties and neural constraints placed upon the propagation of visual information. Repulsive (direct) TAEs arise at early stages of visual processing from adaptation of orientation-selective units with peak sensitivity at the orientation of the adaptor (theta). Attractive (indirect) TAEs result from adaptation of second-stage units with peak sensitivity at theta and theta+90 degrees , which arise from an efficient stage of linear compression that pools across the responses of the first-stage orientation-selective units. A spatial orientation vector is estimated from the transformed oriented unit responses. The change from attractive to repulsive TAEs in peripheral vision can be explained by the differing harmonic biases resulting from constraints on signal power (in central vision) versus signal uncertainties in orientation (in peripheral vision). The proposed model is consistent with recent work by computational neuroscientists in supposing that visual bias reflects the adjustment of a rational system in the light of uncertain signals and system constraints.

  16. Hypermodels in the Bayesian imaging framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki

    2008-06-01

    We consider the problem of restoring an image from a noisy blurred copy of it with the additional qualitative information that the image contains sharp discontinuities whose sizes and locations are unknown. The flexibility of the Bayesian imaging framework is particularly convenient in the presence of such qualitative, rather than quantitative, information. By using a non-stationary Markov model with the variance of the innovation process also unknown, it is possible to take advantage of the qualitative prior information, and Bayesian techniques can be applied to estimate simultaneously the unknown and the prior variance. Here we present a unified approach to Bayesian signal processing and imaging, and show that with rather standard choices of hyperpriors we obtain some classical regularization methods, including the TV and the Perona-Malik regularization, as special cases. The application of Bayesian hyperprior models to imaging applications requires a careful organization of the computations to overcome the challenges coming from the large dimensionality. We explain how the computation of MAP estimates within the proposed Bayesian framework can be made very efficiently by a judicious use of Krylov iterative methods solutions and priorconditioners. The Bayesian approach, unlike deterministic estimation methods which produce a single solution image, provides a very natural way to assess the reliability of single image estimates by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based analysis of the posterior. Computed examples illustrate the different features and the computational properties of the Bayesian hypermodel approach to imaging.

  17. Bayesian approach to noninferiority trials for proportions.

    PubMed

    Gamalo, Mark A; Wu, Rui; Tiwari, Ram C

    2011-09-01

    Noninferiority trials are unique because they are dependent upon historical information in order to make meaningful interpretation of their results. Hence, a direct application of the Bayesian paradigm in sequential learning becomes apparently useful in the analysis. This paper describes a Bayesian procedure for testing noninferiority in two-arm studies with a binary primary endpoint that allows the incorporation of historical data on an active control via the use of informative priors. In particular, the posteriors of the response in historical trials are assumed as priors for its corresponding parameters in the current trial, where that treatment serves as the active control. The Bayesian procedure includes a fully Bayesian method and two normal approximation methods on the prior and/or on the posterior distributions. Then a common Bayesian decision criterion is used but with two prespecified cutoff levels, one for the approximation methods and the other for the fully Bayesian method, to determine whether the experimental treatment is noninferior to the active control. This criterion is evaluated and compared with the frequentist method using simulation studies in keeping with regulatory framework that new methods must protect type I error and arrive at a similar conclusion with existing standard strategies. Results show that both methods arrive at comparable conclusions of noninferiority when applied to a modified real data set. The advantage of the proposed Bayesian approach lies in its ability to provide posterior probabilities for effect sizes of the experimental treatment over the active control.

  18. The attractive lip: A photomorphometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Penna, V; Fricke, A; Iblher, N; Eisenhardt, S U; Stark, G B

    2015-07-01

    Throughout literature, there are different parameters defining the ideal shape of the lip and lower third of the face. This study was conducted to clarify what it is that makes lips attractive - and whether there are gender-related differences of an attractive lip and lower third of the face. Pictures of the lip and chin region of 176 patients were photographed in a standardised way and evaluated by 250 voluntary judges through an internet presentation by means of an analogue Likert scaling system. We found a significant higher ratio of upper vermillion height/mouth-nose distance in frontal-view images of attractive compared to unattractive female (p < 0.001) and male (p < 0.05) perioral regions. Furthermore, the ratio of upper vermillion height/chin-nose distance was significantly higher in attractive than in unattractive female (p < 0.005) and male (p < 0.05) lip and chin regions. The nasolabial angle was significantly sharper in attractive compared to unattractive female perioral regions (p < 0.001). Moreover, attractive female lip and chin regions showed a wider mentolabial angle compared to unattractive female lip and chin regions (p < 0.05). Comparing men and women, we found that attractive female perioral regions showed a higher ratio of lower vermillion height/chin-mouth distance (p < 0.05) and lower vermillion height/chin-nose distance than attractive male perioral regions (p < 0.05). We were able to define certain parameters of the lip and lower third of the face that seem to add to the attractivity of female and male individuals and prove that there are gender-related differences in form and shape of an attractive lower third of the face. Copyright © 2015 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. How facial attractiveness affects sustained attention.

    PubMed

    Li, Jie; Oksama, Lauri; Hyönä, Jukka

    2016-10-01

    The present study investigated whether and how facial attractiveness affects sustained attention. We adopted a multiple-identity tracking paradigm, using attractive and unattractive faces as stimuli. Participants were required to track moving target faces amid distractor faces and report the final location of each target. In Experiment 1, the attractive and unattractive faces differed in both the low-level properties (i.e., luminance, contrast, and color saturation) and high-level properties (i.e., physical beauty and age). The results showed that the attractiveness of both the target and distractor faces affected the tracking performance: The attractive target faces were tracked better than the unattractive target faces; when the targets and distractors were both unattractive male faces, the tracking performance was poorer than when they were of different attractiveness. In Experiment 2, the low-level properties of the facial images were equalized. The results showed that the attractive target faces were still tracked better than unattractive targets while the effects related to distractor attractiveness ceased to exist. Taken together, the results indicate that during attentional tracking the high-level properties related to the attractiveness of the target faces can be automatically processed, and then they can facilitate the sustained attention on the attractive targets, either with or without the supplement of low-level properties. On the other hand, only low-level properties of the distractor faces can be processed. When the distractors share similar low-level properties with the targets, they can be grouped together, so that it would be more difficult to sustain attention on the individual targets.

  20. Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.

    PubMed

    Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B

    2011-12-01

    Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.

  1. Bayesian Networks for Social Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Brothers, Alan J.

    2011-03-28

    This paper describes a body of work developed over the past five years. The work addresses the use of Bayesian network (BN) models for representing and predicting social/organizational behaviors. The topics covered include model construction, validation, and use. These topics show the bulk of the lifetime of such model, beginning with construction, moving to validation and other aspects of model ‘critiquing’, and finally demonstrating how the modeling approach might be used to inform policy analysis. To conclude, we discuss limitations of using BN for this activity and suggest remedies to address those limitations. The primary benefits of using a well-developed computational, mathematical, and statistical modeling structure, such as BN, are 1) there are significant computational, theoretical and capability bases on which to build 2) ability to empirically critique the model, and potentially evaluate competing models for a social/behavioral phenomena.

  2. Bayesian Inference of Galaxy Morphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Ilsang; Weinberg, M.; Katz, N.

    2011-01-01

    Reliable inference on galaxy morphology from quantitative analysis of ensemble galaxy images is challenging but essential ingredient in studying galaxy formation and evolution, utilizing current and forthcoming large scale surveys. To put galaxy image decomposition problem in broader context of statistical inference problem and derive a rigorous statistical confidence levels of the inference, I developed a novel galaxy image decomposition tool, GALPHAT (GALaxy PHotometric ATtributes) that exploits recent developments in Bayesian computation to provide full posterior probability distributions and reliable confidence intervals for all parameters. I will highlight the significant improvements in galaxy image decomposition using GALPHAT, over the conventional model fitting algorithms and introduce the GALPHAT potential to infer the statistical distribution of galaxy morphological structures, using ensemble posteriors of galaxy morphological parameters from the entire galaxy population that one studies.

  3. Bayesian model selection and isocurvature perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beltrán, María; García-Bellido, Juan; Lesgourgues, Julien; Liddle, Andrew R.; Slosar, Anže

    2005-03-01

    Present cosmological data are well explained assuming purely adiabatic perturbations, but an admixture of isocurvature perturbations is also permitted. We use a Bayesian framework to compare the performance of cosmological models including isocurvature modes with the purely adiabatic case; this framework automatically and consistently penalizes models which use more parameters to fit the data. We compute the Bayesian evidence for fits to a data set comprised of WMAP and other microwave anisotropy data, the galaxy power spectrum from 2dFGRS and SDSS, and Type Ia supernovae luminosity distances. We find that Bayesian model selection favors the purely adiabatic models, but so far only at low significance.

  4. Moderate rates of late Quaternary slip along the northwestern margin of the Basin and Range Province, Surprise Valley fault, northeastern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Personius, Stephen F.; Crone, Anthony J.; Machette, Michael N.; Mahan, Shannon; Lidke, David J.

    2009-01-01

    The 86-km-long Surprise Valley normal fault forms part of the active northwestern margin of the Basin and Range province in northeastern California. We use trench mapping and radiocarbon, luminescence, and tephra dating to estimate displacements and timing of the past five surface-rupturing earthquakes on the central part of the fault near Cedarville. A Bayesian OxCal analysis of timing constraints indicates earthquake times of 18.2 ± 2.6, 10.9 ± 3.2, 8.5 ± 0.5, 5.8 ± 1.5, and 1.2 ± 0.1 ka. These data yield recurrence intervals of 7.3 ± 4.1, 2.5 ± 3.2, 2.7 ± 1.6, and 4.5 ± 1.5 ka and an elapsed time of 1.2 ± 0.1 ka since the latest surface-rupturing earthquake. Our best estimate of latest Quaternary vertical slip rate is 0.6 ?? 0.1 mm/a. This late Quaternary rate is remarkably similar to long-term (8-14 Ma) minimum vertical slip rates (>0.4-0.5 ± 0.3 mm/a) calculated from recently acquired seismic reflection and chronologic and structural data in Surprise Valley and the adjacent Warner Mountains. However, our slip rate yields estimates of extension that are lower than recent campaign GPS determinations by factors of 1.5-4 unless the fault has an unusually shallow (30°-35°) dip as suggested by recently acquired seismic reflection data. Coseismic displacements of 2-4.5 ± 1 m documented in the trench and probable rupture lengths of 53-65 km indicate a history of latest Quaternary earthquakes of M 6.8-7.3 on the central part of the. Surprise Valley fault.

  5. Surprise! Infants consider possible bases of generalization for a single input example

    PubMed Central

    Gerken, LouAnn; Dawson, Colin; Chatila, Razanne; Tenenbaum, Josh

    2014-01-01

    Infants have been shown to generalize from a small number of input examples. However, existing studies allow two possible means of generalization. One is via a process of noting similarities shared by several examples. Alternatively, generalization may reflect an implicit desire to explain the input. The latter view suggests that generalization might occur when even a single input example is surprising, given the learner’s current model of the domain. To test the possibility that infants are able to generalize based on a single example, we familiarized 9-month-olds with a single three-syllable input example that contained either one surprising feature (syllable repetition, Exp. 1) or two features (repetition and a rare syllable, Exp. 2). In both experiments, infants generalized only to new strings that maintained all of the surprising features from familiarization. This research suggests that surprise can promote very rapid generalization. PMID:24703007

  6. The Relationship of Interpersonal Attraction and Attraction to Group in a Growth Group Setting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Nancy J.

    1984-01-01

    Investigated the relationship of interpersonal attraction and attraction to groups. Students (N=56) participating in growth groups completed the Group Attitude Scale and individual rating scales early, midway, and late in the group. Data indicated an increasing relationship between interpersonal and group attraction throughout the life of the…

  7. Attitudes and attraction: a new test of the attraction, repulsion and similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry hypotheses.

    PubMed

    Singh, R; Ho, S Y

    2000-06-01

    Dissimilarity and similarity between attitudes of the participants and a stranger were manipulated across two sets of issues to test the attraction, repulsion and similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry hypotheses. Participants (N = 192) judged social (liking, enjoyment of company) and intellectual (intelligence, general knowledge) attractiveness of the stranger. The similarity in the first set of attitudes x similarity in the second set of attitudes effect emerged in social attraction, but not in intellectual attraction. Stated simply, dissimilarity had a greater weight than similarity in social attraction, but equal weight in intellectual attraction. These results support the similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry hypothesis that predicts dissimilarity-repulsion to be stronger than similarity-attraction. However, they reject (1) the attraction hypothesis that dissimilarity and similarity produce equal and opposite effects on social attraction; and (2) the repulsion hypothesis that only dissimilar attitudes affect social attraction by leading to repulsion. An equal weighting of dissimilarity and similarity in intellectual attraction further suggested that the similarity-dissimilarity asymmetry on social attraction is reflective of a stronger avoidance response in the Darwinian sense.

  8. The Putative Son's Attractiveness Alters the Perceived Attractiveness of the Putative Father.

    PubMed

    Prokop, Pavol

    2015-08-01

    A body of literature has investigated female mate choice in the pre-mating context (pre-mating sexual selection). Humans, however, are long-living mammals forming pair-bonds which sequentially produce offspring. Post-mating evaluations of a partner's attractiveness may thus significantly influence the reproductive success of men and women. I tested herein the theory that the attractiveness of putative sons provides extra information about the genetic quality of fathers, thereby influencing fathers' attractiveness across three studies. As predicted, facially attractive boys were more frequently attributed to attractive putative fathers and vice versa (Study 1). Furthermore, priming with an attractive putative son increased the attractiveness of the putative father with the reverse being true for unattractive putative sons. When putative fathers were presented as stepfathers, the effect of the boy's attractiveness on the stepfather's attractiveness was lower and less consistent (Study 2). This suggests that the presence of an attractive boy has the strongest effect on the perceived attractiveness of putative fathers rather than on non-fathers. The generalized effect of priming with beautiful non-human objects also exists, but its effect is much weaker compared with the effects of putative biological sons (Study 3). Overall, this study highlighted the importance of post-mating sexual selection in humans and suggests that the heritable attractive traits of men are also evaluated by females after mating and/or may be used by females in mate poaching.

  9. The 'surprise' question in advanced cancer patients: A prospective study among general practitioners.

    PubMed

    Moroni, Matteo; Zocchi, Donato; Bolognesi, Deborah; Abernethy, Amy; Rondelli, Roberto; Savorani, Giandomenico; Salera, Marcello; Dall'Olio, Filippo G; Galli, Giulia; Biasco, Guido

    2014-07-01

    Using the 'surprise' question 'Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next year?' may improve physicians' prognostic accuracy and identify people appropriate for palliative care. Determine the prognostic accuracy of general practitioners asking the 'surprise' question about their patients with advanced (stage IV) cancer. Prospective cohort study. Between December 2011 and February 2012, 42 of 50 randomly selected general practitioners (Bologna area, Italy) prospectively classified 231 patients diagnosed with advanced cancer according to the 'surprise' question and supplied the status of each patient 1 year later. Of the 231 patients, general practitioners responded 'No' to the 'surprise' question for 126 (54.5%) and 'Yes' for 105 (45.5%). After 12 months, 104 (45.0%) patients had died; 87 (83.7%) were in the 'No' group. The sensitivity of the 'surprise' question was 69.3%; the specificity was 83.6%. Positive predictive value was 83.8%; negative predictive value was 69.0%. The answer to the 'surprise' question was significantly correlated with survival at 1 year. Patients in the 'No' group had an odds ratio of 11.55 (95% confidence interval: 5.83-23.28) and a hazard ratio of 6.99 (95% confidence interval: 3.75-13.03) of being dead in the next year compared to patients in the 'Yes' group (p = 0.000 for both odds ratio and hazard ratio). When general practitioners used the 'surprise' question for their patients with advanced cancer, the accuracy of survival prognosis was very high. This has clinical potential as a method to identify patients who might benefit from palliative care. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Improvised Explosive Devices in Iraq, 2003-09: A Case of Operational Surprise and Institutional Response

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-01

    10: Defence Portfolio , Canberra, Australia: Commonwealth of Australia, 2009, p. 125. 98. In addition to the 444 PMVs acquired under Projects Land...countries met this challenge. A key conclusion from this analysis is the critical role of strategic leadership in recognizing the scale of surprise...velop technological solutions to surprises, or to conduct the operational analysis (OA) needed to devise improved tactics, techniques, and procedures

  11. Rare earth element content of thermal fluids from Surprise Valley, California

    SciTech Connect

    Andrew Fowler

    2015-09-23

    Rare earth element measurements for thermal fluids from Surprise Valley, California. Samples were collected in acid washed HDPE bottles and acidified with concentrated trace element clean (Fisher Scientific) nitric acid. Samples were pre-concentratated by a factor of approximately 10 using chelating resin with and IDA functional group and measured on magnetic sector ICP-MS. Samples include Seyferth Hot Springs, Surprise Valley Resort Mineral Well, Leonard's Hot Spring, and Lake City Mud Volcano Boiling Spring.

  12. Surprisingly Intense Neutron Emission from a Flare Behind the Limb of the Sun

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-01-01

    Surprisingly Intense Neutron Emission from a Flare Behind the Limb of the Sun R. J. Murphy and G. H. Share E.O. Hulburt Center for Space Research...detectable -ray and neutron emissions occur on the visible disk of the Sun . While it is generally believed that particle acceleration in ares takes...Surprisingly Intense Neutron Emission from a Flare Behind the Limb of the Sun 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6

  13. Counterion-Induced Attraction between Rigid Polyelectrolytes

    SciTech Connect

    Gro Bruinsma, R.F.; Gro Mashl, R.J.; Gelbart, W.M.

    1997-03-01

    We report on results of long-time Brownian-dynamics simulations of electrostatic interactions between two rigid polyelectrolyte rods. We find that the interaction can be both repulsive, as obtained from mean-field theory, and attractive. The onset of attraction depends not only on the fixed charge density of the rod, but also on its radius. The attractive force is found to be due to the development of positional correlations between the counterions condensed on the two rods, for which we propose a simple analytical model. {copyright} {ital 1997} {ital The American Physical Society}

  14. Facial attractiveness: beauty and the machine.

    PubMed

    Eisenthal, Yael; Dror, Gideon; Ruppin, Eytan

    2006-01-01

    This work presents a novel study of the notion of facial attractiveness in a machine learning context. To this end, we collected human beauty ratings for data sets of facial images and used various techniques for learning the attractiveness of a face. The trained predictor achieves a significant correlation of 0.65 with the average human ratings. The results clearly show that facial beauty is a universal concept that a machine can learn. Analysis of the accuracy of the beauty prediction machine as a function of the size of the training data indicates that a machine producing human-like attractiveness rating could be obtained given a moderately larger data set.

  15. Charge-induced patchy attractions between proteins.

    PubMed

    Li, Weimin; Persson, Björn A; Morin, Maxim; Behrens, Manja A; Lund, Mikael; Zackrisson Oskolkova, Malin

    2015-01-15

    Static light scattering (SLS) combined with structure-based Monte Carlo (MC) simulations provide new insights into mechanisms behind anisotropic, attractive protein interactions. A nonmonotonic behavior of the osmotic second virial coefficient as a function of ionic strength is here shown to originate from a few charged amino acids forming an electrostatic attractive patch, highly directional and complementary. Together with Coulombic repulsion, this attractive patch results in two counteracting electrostatic contributions to the interaction free energy which, by operating over different length scales, is manifested in a subtle, salt-induced minimum in the second virial coefficient as observed in both experiment and simulations.

  16. Netrin1-DCC-Mediated Attraction Guides Post-Crossing Commissural Axons in the Hindbrain

    PubMed Central

    Shoja-Taheri, Farnaz; DeMarco, Arielle

    2015-01-01

    Commissural axons grow along precise trajectories that are guided by several cues secreted from the ventral midline. After initial attraction to the floor plate using Netrin1 activation of its main attractive receptor, DCC (deleted in colorectal cancer), axons cross the ventral midline, and many turn to grow longitudinally on the contralateral side. After crossing the midline, axons are thought to lose their responsiveness to Netrin1 and become sensitive to midline Slit-Robo repulsion. We aimed to address the in vivo significance of Netrin1 in guiding post-crossing axon trajectories in mouse embryos. Surprisingly, in contrast to the spinal cord, Netrin1 and DCC mutants had abundant commissural axons crossing in the hindbrain. In Netrin1 and DCC mutants, many post-crossing axons made normal turns to grow longitudinally, but projected abnormally at angles away from the midline. In addition, exposure of cultured hindbrain explants to ectopic Netrin1 caused attractive deflection of post-crossing axons. Thus, Netrin1-DCC signaling is not required to attract pre-crossing axons toward the hindbrain floor plate, but is active in post-crossing guidance. Also in contrast with spinal cord, analysis of hindbrain post-crossing axons in Robo1/2 mutant embryos showed that Slit-Robo repulsive signaling was not required for post-crossing trajectories. Our findings show that Netrin1-DCC attractive signaling, but not Slit-Robo repulsive signaling, remains active in hindbrain post-crossing commissural axons to guide longitudinal trajectories, suggesting surprising regional diversity in commissural axon guidance mechanisms. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The left and right sides of the brainstem and spinal cord are connected primarily by axon fibers that grow across the ventral midline, and then away on the other side to their targets. Based on spinal cord, axons are initially attracted by diffusible attractive protein signals to approach and cross the midline, and then are thought to switch

  17. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  18. Bayesian Comparison of Two Regression Lines.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsutakawa, Robert K.

    1978-01-01

    A Bayesian solution is presented for the Johnson-Neyman problem (whether or not the distance between two regression lines is statistically significant over a finite interval of the independent variable). (Author/CTM)

  19. Bayesian Methods for High Dimensional Linear Models

    PubMed Central

    Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we present a selective overview of some recent developments in Bayesian model and variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models. While most of the reviews in literature are based on conventional methods, we focus on recently developed methods, which have proven to be successful in dealing with high dimensional variable selection. First, we give a brief overview of the traditional model selection methods (viz. Mallow’s Cp, AIC, BIC, DIC), followed by a discussion on some recently developed methods (viz. EBIC, regularization), which have occupied the minds of many statisticians. Then, we review high dimensional Bayesian methods with a particular emphasis on Bayesian regularization methods, which have been used extensively in recent years. We conclude by briefly addressing the asymptotic behaviors of Bayesian variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models under different regularity conditions. PMID:24511433

  20. Detecting Exoplanets using Bayesian Object Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feroz, Farhan

    2015-08-01

    Detecting objects from noisy data-sets is common practice in astrophysics. Object detection presents a particular challenge in terms of statistical inference, not only because of its multi-modal nature but also because it combines both the parameter estimation (for characterizing objects) and model selection problems (in order to quantify the detection). Bayesian inference provides a mathematically rigorous solution to this problem by calculating marginal posterior probabilities of models with different number of sources, but the use of this method in astrophysics has been hampered by the computational cost of evaluating the Bayesian evidence. Nonetheless, Bayesian model selection has the potential to improve the interpretation of existing observational data. I will discuss several Bayesian approaches to object detection problems, both in terms of their theoretical framework and also the practical details about carrying out the computation. I will also describe some recent applications of these methods in the detection of exoplanets.

  1. Domino effect analysis using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

    2013-02-01

    A new methodology is introduced based on Bayesian network both to model domino effect propagation patterns and to estimate the domino effect probability at different levels. The flexible structure and the unique modeling techniques offered by Bayesian network make it possible to analyze domino effects through a probabilistic framework, considering synergistic effects, noisy probabilities, and common cause failures. Further, the uncertainties and the complex interactions among the domino effect components are captured using Bayesian network. The probabilities of events are updated in the light of new information, and the most probable path of the domino effect is determined on the basis of the new data gathered. This study shows how probability updating helps to update the domino effect model either qualitatively or quantitatively. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical example and also to an earlier-studied case study. These examples accentuate the effectiveness of Bayesian network in modeling domino effects in processing facility. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?

    PubMed Central

    Hahn, Ulrike

    2014-01-01

    A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations in the study of cognition. The present article takes central claims from these critiques and evaluates them in light of specific models. Closer consideration of actual examples of Bayesian treatments of different cognitive phenomena allows one to defuse these critiques showing that they cannot be sustained across the diversity of applications of the Bayesian framework for cognitive modeling. More generally, there is nothing in the Bayesian framework that would inherently give rise to the deficits that these critiques perceive, suggesting they have been framed at the wrong level of generality. At the same time, the examples are used to demonstrate the different ways in which consideration of rationality uniquely benefits both theory and practice in the study of cognition. PMID:25152738

  3. Learning genetic epistasis using Bayesian network scoring criteria

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Gene-gene epistatic interactions likely play an important role in the genetic basis of many common diseases. Recently, machine-learning and data mining methods have been developed for learning epistatic relationships from data. A well-known combinatorial method that has been successfully applied for detecting epistasis is Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR). Jiang et al. created a combinatorial epistasis learning method called BNMBL to learn Bayesian network (BN) epistatic models. They compared BNMBL to MDR using simulated data sets. Each of these data sets was generated from a model that associates two SNPs with a disease and includes 18 unrelated SNPs. For each data set, BNMBL and MDR were used to score all 2-SNP models, and BNMBL learned significantly more correct models. In real data sets, we ordinarily do not know the number of SNPs that influence phenotype. BNMBL may not perform as well if we also scored models containing more than two SNPs. Furthermore, a number of other BN scoring criteria have been developed. They may detect epistatic interactions even better than BNMBL. Although BNs are a promising tool for learning epistatic relationships from data, we cannot confidently use them in this domain until we determine which scoring criteria work best or even well when we try learning the correct model without knowledge of the number of SNPs in that model. Results We evaluated the performance of 22 BN scoring criteria using 28,000 simulated data sets and a real Alzheimer's GWAS data set. Our results were surprising in that the Bayesian scoring criterion with large values of a hyperparameter called α performed best. This score performed better than other BN scoring criteria and MDR at recall using simulated data sets, at detecting the hardest-to-detect models using simulated data sets, and at substantiating previous results using the real Alzheimer's data set. Conclusions We conclude that representing epistatic interactions using BN models

  4. Bayesian Analysis of Item Response Curves.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-07-01

    response.a are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint of estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability...estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability, restricted bivariate beta priors are used to...responses, Bayesian estimation, EM algorithm. 3 Introduction We will consider dichotomous responses to a set of test items which are designed to measure the

  5. ProFit: Bayesian galaxy fitting tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robotham, A. S. G.; Taranu, D.; Tobar, R.

    2016-12-01

    ProFit is a Bayesian galaxy fitting tool that uses the fast C++ image generation library libprofit (ascl:1612.003) and a flexible R interface to a large number of likelihood samplers. It offers a fully featured Bayesian interface to galaxy model fitting (also called profiling), using mostly the same standard inputs as other popular codes (e.g. GALFIT ascl:1104.010), but it is also able to use complex priors and a number of likelihoods.

  6. Induction of selective Bayesian networks from data

    SciTech Connect

    Singh, M.

    1996-12-31

    Bayesian networks, which provide a compact graphical way to express complex probabilistic relationships among several random variables, are rapidly becoming the tool of choice for dealing with uncertainty in knowledge based systems. Amongst the many advantages offered by Bayesian networks over other representations such as decision trees and neural networks are the ease of comprehensibility to humans, effectiveness as complex decision making models and elicitability of informative prior distributions.

  7. Optimal online learning: a Bayesian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solla, Sara A.; Winther, Ole

    1999-09-01

    A recently proposed Bayesian approach to online learning is applied to learning a rule defined as a noisy single layer perceptron. In the Bayesian online approach, the exact posterior distribution is approximated by a simple parametric posterior that is updated online as new examples are incorporated to the dataset. In the case of binary weights, the approximate posterior is chosen to be a biased binary distribution. The resulting online algorithm is shown to outperform several other online approaches to this problem.

  8. Variational Bayesian Approximation methods for inverse problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2012-09-01

    Variational Bayesian Approximation (VBA) methods are recent tools for effective Bayesian computations. In this paper, these tools are used for inverse problems where the prior models include hidden variables and where where the estimation of the hyper parameters has also to be addressed. In particular two specific prior models (Student-t and mixture of Gaussian models) are considered and details of the algorithms are given.

  9. Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

  10. BNFinder2: Faster Bayesian network learning and Bayesian classification.

    PubMed

    Dojer, Norbert; Bednarz, Pawel; Podsiadlo, Agnieszka; Wilczynski, Bartek

    2013-08-15

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are versatile probabilistic models applicable to many different biological phenomena. In biological applications the structure of the network is usually unknown and needs to be inferred from experimental data. BNFinder is a fast software implementation of an exact algorithm for finding the optimal structure of the network given a number of experimental observations. Its second version, presented in this article, represents a major improvement over the previous version. The improvements include (i) a parallelized learning algorithm leading to an order of magnitude speed-ups in BN structure learning time; (ii) inclusion of an additional scoring function based on mutual information criteria; (iii) possibility of choosing the resulting network specificity based on statistical criteria and (iv) a new module for classification by BNs, including cross-validation scheme and classifier quality measurements with receiver operator characteristic scores. BNFinder2 is implemented in python and freely available under the GNU general public license at the project Web site https://launchpad.net/bnfinder, together with a user's manual, introductory tutorial and supplementary methods.

  11. Does being attractive always help? Positive and negative effects of attractiveness on social decision making.

    PubMed

    Agthe, Maria; Spörrle, Matthias; Maner, Jon K

    2011-08-01

    Previous studies of organizational decision making demonstrate an abundance of positive biases directed toward highly attractive individuals. The current research, in contrast, suggests that when the person being evaluated is of the same sex as the evaluator, attractiveness hurts, rather than helps. Three experiments assessing evaluations of potential job candidates (Studies 1 and 3) and university applicants (Study 2) demonstrated positive biases toward highly attractive other-sex targets but negative biases toward highly attractive same-sex targets. This pattern was mediated by variability in participants' desire to interact with versus avoid the target individual (Studies 1 and 2) and was moderated by participants' level of self-esteem (Study 3); the derogation of attractive same-sex targets was not observed among people with high self-esteem. Findings demonstrate an important exception to the positive effects of attractiveness in organizational settings and suggest that negative responses to attractive same-sex targets stem from perceptions of self-threat.

  12. Are Attractive People Rewarding? Sex Differences in the Neural Substrates of Facial Attractiveness

    PubMed Central

    Cloutier, J.; Heatherton, T. F.; Whalen, P. J.; Kelley, W. M.

    2013-01-01

    The current study examined the neural substrates of facial attractiveness judgments. Based on the extant behavioral literature, it was hypothesized that brain regions involved in identifying the potential reward value of a stimulus would be more active when males viewed attractive females than when females viewed attractive males. To test this hypothesis, we conducted an event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment during which participants provided explicit attractiveness judgments for faces of the opposite sex. These individual ratings were subsequently used to perform analyses aimed at identifying the brain regions preferentially responsive to attractive faces for both sex groups. The results revealed that brain regions comprising the putative reward circuitry (e.g., Nucleus Accumbens [NAcc], Orbitofrontal Cortex [OFC]) showed a linear increase in activation with increased judgments of attractiveness. However, further analysis also revealed sex differences in the recruitment of OFC which distinguished attractive and unattractive faces only for male participants. PMID:18211242

  13. Integrating body movement into attractiveness research

    PubMed Central

    Fink, Bernhard; Weege, Bettina; Neave, Nick; Pham, Michael N.; Shackelford, Todd K.

    2015-01-01

    People judge attractiveness and make trait inferences from the physical appearance of others, and research reveals high agreement among observers making such judgments. Evolutionary psychologists have argued that interest in physical appearance and beauty reflects adaptations that motivate the search for desirable qualities in a potential partner. Although men more than women value the physical appearance of a partner, appearance universally affects social perception in both sexes. Most studies of attractiveness perceptions have focused on third party assessments of static representations of the face and body. Corroborating evidence suggests that body movement, such as dance, also conveys information about mate quality. Here we review evidence that dynamic cues (e.g., gait, dance) also influence perceptions of mate quality, including personality traits, strength, and overall attractiveness. We recommend that attractiveness research considers the informational value of body movement in addition to static cues, to present an integrated perspective on human social perception. PMID:25784887

  14. Locus of Control and Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fagan, M. Michael

    1980-01-01

    The role of locus of control in interpersonal attraction was examined by administering 1) the Nowicki-Strickland Locus of Control Scale and 2) a sociometric test of friendship to 200 eighth graders. (CM)

  15. Colloidal attraction induced by a temperature gradient.

    PubMed

    Di Leonardo, R; Ianni, F; Ruocco, G

    2009-04-21

    Colloidal crystals are of extreme importance for applied research and for fundamental studies in statistical mechanics. Long-range attractive interactions, such as capillary forces, can drive the spontaneous assembly of such mesoscopic ordered structures. However, long-range attractive forces are very rare in the colloidal realm. Here we report a novel strong, long-ranged attraction induced by a thermal gradient in the presence of a wall. By switching the thermal gradient on and off, we can rapidly and reversibly form stable hexagonal 2D crystals. We show that the observed attraction is hydrodynamic in nature and arises from thermally induced slip flow on particle surfaces. We used optical tweezers to measure the force law directly and compare it to an analytical prediction based on Stokes flow driven by Marangoni-like forces.

  16. Attracting and retaining nurses in HIV care.

    PubMed

    Puplampu, Gideon L; Olson, Karin; Ogilvie, Linda; Mayan, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Attracting and retaining nurses in HIV care is essential to treatment success, preventing the spread of HIV, slowing its progression, and improving the quality of life of people living with HIV. Despite the wealth of studies examining HIV care, few have focused on the factors that influenced nurses' choices to specialize in HIV care. We examined the factors that attracted and retained eight nurses currently working in HIV care in two large Canadian cities. Participants were primarily women between the ages of 20 and 60 years. Interviews were conducted between November 2010 and September 2011 using interpretive description, a qualitative design. Factors that influenced participants to focus their careers in HIV care included both attracting factors and retaining factors. Although more research is needed, this exploration of attracting and retaining factors may motivate others to specialize in HIV nursing, and thus help to promote adequate support for individuals suffering from the disease.

  17. Integrating body movement into attractiveness research.

    PubMed

    Fink, Bernhard; Weege, Bettina; Neave, Nick; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K

    2015-01-01

    People judge attractiveness and make trait inferences from the physical appearance of others, and research reveals high agreement among observers making such judgments. Evolutionary psychologists have argued that interest in physical appearance and beauty reflects adaptations that motivate the search for desirable qualities in a potential partner. Although men more than women value the physical appearance of a partner, appearance universally affects social perception in both sexes. Most studies of attractiveness perceptions have focused on third party assessments of static representations of the face and body. Corroborating evidence suggests that body movement, such as dance, also conveys information about mate quality. Here we review evidence that dynamic cues (e.g., gait, dance) also influence perceptions of mate quality, including personality traits, strength, and overall attractiveness. We recommend that attractiveness research considers the informational value of body movement in addition to static cues, to present an integrated perspective on human social perception.

  18. Young Children's Stereotyping of Facial Attractiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dion, Karen K.

    1973-01-01

    When shown photographs, young children preferred children with attractive faces as potential friends, and attributed prosocial behaviors to them. They disliked unattractive faces and attributed antisocial behaviors to them. (ST)

  19. Electrostatic attraction between overall neutral surfaces.

    PubMed

    Adar, Ram M; Andelman, David; Diamant, Haim

    2016-08-01

    Two overall neutral surfaces with positively and negatively charged domains ("patches") have been shown in recent experiments to exhibit long-range attraction when immersed in an ionic solution. Motivated by the experiments, we calculate analytically the osmotic pressure between such surfaces within the Poisson-Boltzmann framework, using a variational principle for the surface-averaged free energy. The electrostatic potential, calculated beyond the linear Debye-Hückel theory, yields an overall attraction at large intersurface separations, over a wide range of the system's controlled length scales. In particular, the attraction is stronger and occurs at smaller separations for surface patches of larger size and charge density. In this large patch limit, we find that the attraction-repulsion crossover separation is inversely proportional to the square of the patch-charge density and to the Debye screening length.

  20. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

    PubMed Central

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2015-01-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

  1. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    PubMed

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework.

  2. Attractive and repulsive magnetic suspension systems overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cope, David B.; Fontana, Richard R.

    1992-01-01

    Magnetic suspension systems can be used in a wide variety of applications. The decision of whether to use an attractive or repulsive suspension system for a particular application is a fundamental one which must be made during the design process. As an aid to the designer, we compare and contrast attractive and repulsive magnetic suspension systems and indicate whether and under what conditions one or the other system is preferred.

  3. Malaria Mosquitoes Attracted by Fatal Fungus

    PubMed Central

    George, Justin; Jenkins, Nina E.; Blanford, Simon; Thomas, Matthew B.; Baker, Thomas C.

    2013-01-01

    Insect-killing fungi such as Beauveria bassiana are being evaluated as possible active ingredients for use in novel biopesticides against mosquito vectors that transmit malaria. Fungal pathogens infect through contact and so applications of spores to surfaces such as walls, nets, or other resting sites provide possible routes to infect mosquitoes in and around domestic dwellings. However, some insects can detect and actively avoid fungal spores to reduce infection risk. If true for mosquitoes, such behavior could render the biopesticide approach ineffective. Here we find that the spores of B. bassiana are highly attractive to females of Anopheles stephensi, a major anopheline mosquito vector of human malaria in Asia. We further find that An. stephensi females are preferentially attracted to dead and dying caterpillars infected with B. bassiana, landing on them and subsequently becoming infected with the fungus. Females are also preferentially attracted to cloth sprayed with oil-formulated B. bassiana spores, with 95% of the attracted females becoming infected after a one-minute visit on the cloth. This is the first report of an insect being attracted to a lethal fungal pathogen. The exact mechanisms involved in this behavior remain unclear. Nonetheless, our results indicate that biopesticidal formulations comprising B. bassiana spores will be conducive to attraction and on-source visitation by malaria vectors. PMID:23658757

  4. Forming impressions of facial attractiveness is mandatory.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Kay L; Palermo, Romina; Rhodes, Gillian

    2017-03-28

    First impressions of social traits, such as attractiveness, from faces are often claimed to be made automatically, given their speed and reliability. However, speed of processing is only one aspect of automaticity. Here we address a further aspect, asking whether impression formation is mandatory. Mandatory formation requires that impressions are formed about social traits even when this is task-irrelevant, and that once formed, these impressions are difficult to inhibit. In two experiments, participants learned what new people looked like for the purpose of future identification, from sets of images high or low in attractiveness. They then rated middle-attractiveness images of each person, for attractiveness. Even though instructed to rate the specific images, not the people, their ratings were biased by the attractiveness of the learned images. A third control experiment, with participants rating names, demonstrated that participants in Experiments 1 and 2 were not simply rating the people, rather than the specific images as instructed. These results show that the formation of attractiveness impressions from faces is mandatory, thus broadening the evidence for automaticity of facial impressions. The mandatory formation of impressions is likely to have an important impact in real-world situations such as online dating sites.

  5. Sequential effects in face-attractiveness judgment.

    PubMed

    Kondo, Aki; Takahashi, Kohske; Watanabe, Katsumi

    2012-01-01

    A number of studies have shown that current-trial responses are biased toward the response of the preceding trial in perceptual decisionmaking tasks (the sequential effect-Holland and Lockhead, 1968 Perception & Psychophysics 3 409-414). The sequential effect has been widely observed in evaluation of the physical properties of stimuli as well as more complex properties. However, it is unclear whether subjective decisions (e.g., attractiveness judgments) are also susceptible to the sequential effect. Here, we examined whether the sequential effect would occur in face-attractiveness judgments. Forty-eight pictures of male and female faces were presented successively. Participants rated the attractiveness of each face on a 7-point scale. The results showed that the attractiveness rating of a given face assimilated toward the rating of the preceding trial. In a separate experiment, we provided the average attractiveness rating by others for each trial as feedback. The feedback weakened the sequential effect. These findings suggest that attractiveness judgment is also biased toward the preceding judgment, and hence the sequential effect can be extended into the domain of subjective decisionmaking.

  6. Social attraction mediated by fruit flies' microbiome.

    PubMed

    Venu, Isvarya; Durisko, Zachary; Xu, Jianping; Dukas, Reuven

    2014-04-15

    Larval and adult fruit flies are attracted to volatiles emanating from food substrates that have been occupied by larvae. We tested whether such volatiles are emitted by the larval gut bacteria by conducting tests under bacteria-free (axenic) conditions. We also tested attraction to two bacteria species, Lactobacillus brevis, which we cultured from larvae in our lab, and L. plantarum, a common constituent of fruit flies' microbiome in other laboratory populations and in wild fruit flies. Neither larvae nor adults showed attraction to axenic food that had been occupied by axenic larvae, but both showed the previously reported attraction to standard food that had been occupied by larvae with an intact microbiome. Larvae also showed significant attraction to volatiles from axenic food and larvae to which we added only either L. brevis or L. plantarum, and volatiles from L. brevis reared on its optimal growth medium. Controlled learning experiments indicated that larvae experienced with both standard and axenic used food do not perceive either as superior, while focal larvae experienced with simulated used food, which contains burrows, perceive it as superior to unused food. Our results suggest that flies rely on microbiome-derived volatiles for long-distance attraction to suitable food patches. Under natural settings, fruits often contain harmful fungi and bacteria, and both L. brevis and L. plantarum produce compounds that suppress the growth of some antagonistic fungi and bacteria. The larval microbiome volatiles may therefore lead prospective fruit flies towards substrates with a hospitable microbial environment.

  7. Ailing Voters Advance Attractive Congressional Candidates

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, Robert G.; Palumbo, Rocco

    2015-01-01

    Among many benefits of facial attractiveness, there is evidence that more attractive politicians are more likely to be elected. Recent research found this effect to be most pronounced in congressional districts with high disease threat—a result attributed to an adaptive disease avoidance mechanism, whereby the association of low attractiveness with poor health is particularly worrisome to voters who feel vulnerable to disease. We provided a more direct test of this explanation by examining the effects of individuals’ own health and age. Supporting a disease avoidance mechanism, less healthy participants showed a stronger preference for more attractive contenders in U.S. Senate races than their healthier peers, and this effect was stronger for older participants, who were generally less healthy than younger participants. Stronger effects of health for older participants partly reflected the absence of positive bias toward attractive candidates among the healthiest, suggesting that healthy older adults may be unconcerned about disease threat or sufficiently wise to ignore attractiveness. PMID:25562113

  8. Dissociable effects of surprise and model update in parietal and anterior cingulate cortex

    PubMed Central

    O’Reilly, Jill X.; Schüffelgen, Urs; Cuell, Steven F.; Behrens, Timothy E. J.; Mars, Rogier B.; Rushworth, Matthew F. S.

    2013-01-01

    Brains use predictive models to facilitate the processing of expected stimuli or planned actions. Under a predictive model, surprising (low probability) stimuli or actions necessitate the immediate reallocation of processing resources, but they can also signal the need to update the underlying predictive model to reflect changes in the environment. Surprise and updating are often correlated in experimental paradigms but are, in fact, distinct constructs that can be formally defined as the Shannon information (IS) and Kullback–Leibler divergence (DKL) associated with an observation. In a saccadic planning task, we observed that distinct behaviors and brain regions are associated with surprise/IS and updating/DKL. Although surprise/IS was associated with behavioral reprogramming as indexed by slower reaction times, as well as with activity in the posterior parietal cortex [human lateral intraparietal area (LIP)], the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) was specifically activated during updating of the predictive model (DKL). A second saccade-sensitive region in the inferior posterior parietal cortex (human 7a), which has connections to both LIP and ACC, was activated by surprise and modulated by updating. Pupillometry revealed a further dissociation between surprise and updating with an early positive effect of surprise and late negative effect of updating on pupil area. These results give a computational account of the roles of the ACC and two parietal saccade regions, LIP and 7a, by which their involvement in diverse tasks can be understood mechanistically. The dissociation of functional roles between regions within the reorienting/reprogramming network may also inform models of neurological phenomena, such as extinction and Balint syndrome, and neglect. PMID:23986499

  9. Prior probabilities modulate cortical surprise responses: A study of event-related potentials.

    PubMed

    Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Boos, Moritz; Dengler, Reinhard; Kopp, Bruno

    2016-07-01

    The human brain predicts events in its environment based on expectations, and unexpected events are surprising. When probabilistic contingencies in the environment are precisely instructed, the individual can form expectations based on quantitative probabilistic information ('inference-based learning'). In contrast, when probabilistic contingencies are imprecisely instructed, expectations are formed based on the individual's cumulative experience ('experience-based learning'). Here, we used the urn-ball paradigm to investigate how variations in prior probabilities and in the precision of information about these priors modulate choice behavior and event-related potential (ERP) correlates of surprise. In the urn-ball paradigm, participants are repeatedly forced to infer hidden states responsible for generating observable events, given small samples of factual observations. We manipulated prior probabilities of the states, and we rendered the priors calculable or incalculable, respectively. The analysis of choice behavior revealed that the tendency to consider prior probabilities when making decisions about hidden states was stronger when prior probabilities were calculable, at least in some of our participants. Surprise-related P3b amplitudes were observed in both the calculable and the incalculable prior probability condition. In contrast, calculability of prior probabilities modulated anteriorly distributed ERP amplitudes: when prior probabilities were calculable, surprising events elicited enhanced P3a amplitudes. However, when prior probabilities were incalculable, surprise was associated with enhanced N2 amplitudes. Furthermore, interindividual variability in reliance on prior probabilities was associated with attenuated P3b surprise responses under calculable in comparison to incalculable prior probabilities. Our results suggest two distinct neural systems for probabilistic learning that are recruited depending on contextual cues such as the precision of

  10. Multi-static passive SAR imaging based on Bayesian compressive sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Qisong; Zhang, Yimin D.; Amin, Moeness G.; Himed, Braham

    2014-05-01

    Passive radar systems, which utilize broadcast and navigation signals as sources of opportunity, have attracted significant interests in recent years due to their low cost, covertness, and the availability of different illuminator sources. In this paper, we propose a novel method for synthetic aperture imaging in multi-static passive radar systems based on a group sparse Bayesian learning technique. In particular, the problem of imaging sparse targets is formulated as a group sparse signal reconstruction problem, which is solved using a complex multi- task Bayesian compressive sensing (CMT-BCS) method to achieve a high resolution. The proposed approach significantly improves the imaging resolution beyond the range resolution. Compared to the other group sparse signal reconstruction methods, such as the block orthogonal matching pursuit (BOMP) and group Lasso, the CMT-BCS provides significant performance improvement for the reconstruction of sparse targets in the redundant dictionary with high coherence. Simulations results demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach.

  11. Old maids have more appeal: effects of age and pheromone source on mate attraction in an orb-web spider

    PubMed Central

    Schneider, Jutta M.

    2016-01-01

    Background. In many insects and spider species, females attract males with volatile sex pheromones, but we know surprisingly little about the costs and benefits of female pheromone emission. Here, we test the hypothesis that mate attraction by females is dynamic and strategic in the sense that investment in mate attraction is matched to the needs of the female. We use the orb-web spider Argiope bruennichi in which females risk the production of unfertilised egg clutches if they do not receive a copulation within a certain time-frame. Methods. We designed field experiments to compare mate attraction by recently matured (young) females with females close to oviposition (old). In addition, we experimentally separated the potential sources of pheromone transmission, namely the female body and the web silk. Results. In accordance with the hypothesis of strategic pheromone production, the probability of mate attraction and the number of males attracted differed between age classes. While the bodies and webs of young females were hardly found by males, the majority of old females attracted up to two males within two hours. Old females not only increased pheromone emission from their bodies but also from their webs. Capture webs alone spun by old females were significantly more efficient in attracting males than webs of younger females. Discussion. Our results suggest that females modulate their investment in signalling according to the risk of remaining unmated and that they thereby economize on the costs associated with pheromone production and emission. PMID:27114864

  12. Old maids have more appeal: effects of age and pheromone source on mate attraction in an orb-web spider.

    PubMed

    Cory, Anna-Lena; Schneider, Jutta M

    2016-01-01

    Background. In many insects and spider species, females attract males with volatile sex pheromones, but we know surprisingly little about the costs and benefits of female pheromone emission. Here, we test the hypothesis that mate attraction by females is dynamic and strategic in the sense that investment in mate attraction is matched to the needs of the female. We use the orb-web spider Argiope bruennichi in which females risk the production of unfertilised egg clutches if they do not receive a copulation within a certain time-frame. Methods. We designed field experiments to compare mate attraction by recently matured (young) females with females close to oviposition (old). In addition, we experimentally separated the potential sources of pheromone transmission, namely the female body and the web silk. Results. In accordance with the hypothesis of strategic pheromone production, the probability of mate attraction and the number of males attracted differed between age classes. While the bodies and webs of young females were hardly found by males, the majority of old females attracted up to two males within two hours. Old females not only increased pheromone emission from their bodies but also from their webs. Capture webs alone spun by old females were significantly more efficient in attracting males than webs of younger females. Discussion. Our results suggest that females modulate their investment in signalling according to the risk of remaining unmated and that they thereby economize on the costs associated with pheromone production and emission.

  13. BACTERIAL ATTRACTION AND QUORUM SENSING INHIBITION IN CAENORHABDITIS ELEGANS EXUDATES

    PubMed Central

    KAPLAN, FATMA; BADRI, DAYAKAR V.; ZACHARIAH, CHERIAN; AJREDINI, RAMADAN; SANDOVAL, FRANCISCO J; ROJE, SANJA; LEVINE, LANFANG H.; ZHANG, FENGLI; ROBINETTE, STEVEN L.; ALBORN, HANS T.; ZHAO, WEI; STADLER, MICHAEL; NIMALENDRAN, RATHIKA; DOSSEY, AARON T.; BRÜSCHWEILER, RAFAEL; VIVANCO, JORGE M.; EDISON, ARTHUR S.

    2014-01-01

    Caenorhabditis elegans, a bacterivorous nematode, lives in complex rotting fruit, soil, and compost environments, and chemical interactions are required for mating, monitoring population density, recognition of food, avoidance of pathogenic microbes, and other essential ecological functions. Despite being one of the best-studied model organisms in biology, relatively little is known about the signals that C. elegans uses to chemically interact with its environment or as defense. C. elegans exudates were analyzed using several analytical methods and found to contain 36 common metabolites including organic acids, amino acids and sugars, all in relatively high abundance. Furthermore, the concentrations of amino acids in the exudates were dependent on developmental stage. The C. elegans exudates were tested for bacterial chemotaxis using Pseudomonas putida (KT2440), a plant growth promoting rhizobacterium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PAO1), a soil bacterium pathogenic to C. elegans, and E. coli (OP50), a non-motile bacterium tested as a control. The C. elegans exudates attracted the two Psuedomonas species, but had no detectable antibacterial activity against P. aeruginosa. To our surprise, the exudates of young adult and adult life stages of C. elegans exudates inhibited quorum sensing in the reporter system based on the LuxR bacterial quorum sensing (QS) system, which regulates bacterial virulence and other factors in Vibrio fischeri. We were able to fractionate the QS inhibition and bacterial chemotaxis activities, demonstrating that these activities are chemically distinct. Our results demonstrate that C. elegans can attract its bacterial food and has the potential of partially regulating the virulence of bacterial pathogens by inhibiting specific QS systems. PMID:19649780

  14. Bacterial attraction and quorum sensing inhibition in Caenorhabditis elegans exudates.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, Fatma; Badri, Dayakar V; Zachariah, Cherian; Ajredini, Ramadan; Sandoval, Francisco J; Roje, Sanja; Levine, Lanfang H; Zhang, Fengli; Robinette, Steven L; Alborn, Hans T; Zhao, Wei; Stadler, Michael; Nimalendran, Rathika; Dossey, Aaron T; Brüschweiler, Rafael; Vivanco, Jorge M; Edison, Arthur S

    2009-08-01

    Caenorhabditis elegans, a bacterivorous nematode, lives in complex rotting fruit, soil, and compost environments, and chemical interactions are required for mating, monitoring population density, recognition of food, avoidance of pathogenic microbes, and other essential ecological functions. Despite being one of the best-studied model organisms in biology, relatively little is known about the signals that C. elegans uses to interact chemically with its environment or as defense. C. elegans exudates were analyzed by using several analytical methods and found to contain 36 common metabolites that include organic acids, amino acids, and sugars, all in relatively high abundance. Furthermore, the concentrations of amino acids in the exudates were dependent on developmental stage. The C. elegans exudates were tested for bacterial chemotaxis using Pseudomonas putida (KT2440), a plant growth promoting rhizobacterium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PAO1), a soil bacterium pathogenic to C. elegans, and Escherichia coli (OP50), a non-motile bacterium tested as a control. The C. elegans exudates attracted the two Pseudomonas species, but had no detectable antibacterial activity against P. aeruginosa. To our surprise, the exudates of young adult and adult life stages of C. elegans exudates inhibited quorum sensing in the reporter system based on the LuxR bacterial quorum sensing (QS) system, which regulates bacterial virulence and other factors in Vibrio fischeri. We were able to fractionate the QS inhibition and bacterial chemotaxis activities, thus demonstrating that these activities are chemically distinct. Our results demonstrate that C. elegans can attract its bacterial food and has the potential of partially regulating the virulence of bacterial pathogens by inhibiting specific QS systems.

  15. Bayesian Computation Emerges in Generic Cortical Microcircuits through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Nessler, Bernhard; Pfeiffer, Michael; Buesing, Lars; Maass, Wolfgang

    2013-01-01

    The principles by which networks of neurons compute, and how spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) of synaptic weights generates and maintains their computational function, are unknown. Preceding work has shown that soft winner-take-all (WTA) circuits, where pyramidal neurons inhibit each other via interneurons, are a common motif of cortical microcircuits. We show through theoretical analysis and computer simulations that Bayesian computation is induced in these network motifs through STDP in combination with activity-dependent changes in the excitability of neurons. The fundamental components of this emergent Bayesian computation are priors that result from adaptation of neuronal excitability and implicit generative models for hidden causes that are created in the synaptic weights through STDP. In fact, a surprising result is that STDP is able to approximate a powerful principle for fitting such implicit generative models to high-dimensional spike inputs: Expectation Maximization. Our results suggest that the experimentally observed spontaneous activity and trial-to-trial variability of cortical neurons are essential features of their information processing capability, since their functional role is to represent probability distributions rather than static neural codes. Furthermore it suggests networks of Bayesian computation modules as a new model for distributed information processing in the cortex. PMID:23633941

  16. Penis size interacts with body shape and height to influence male attractiveness

    PubMed Central

    Mautz, Brian S.; Wong, Bob B. M.; Peters, Richard A.; Jennions, Michael D.

    2013-01-01

    Compelling evidence from many animal taxa indicates that male genitalia are often under postcopulatory sexual selection for characteristics that increase a male’s relative fertilization success. There could, however, also be direct precopulatory female mate choice based on male genital traits. Before clothing, the nonretractable human penis would have been conspicuous to potential mates. This observation has generated suggestions that human penis size partly evolved because of female choice. Here we show, based upon female assessment of digitally projected life-size, computer-generated images, that penis size interacts with body shape and height to determine male sexual attractiveness. Positive linear selection was detected for penis size, but the marginal increase in attractiveness eventually declined with greater penis size (i.e., quadratic selection). Penis size had a stronger effect on attractiveness in taller men than in shorter men. There was a similar increase in the positive effect of penis size on attractiveness with a more masculine body shape (i.e., greater shoulder-to-hip ratio). Surprisingly, larger penis size and greater height had almost equivalent positive effects on male attractiveness. Our results support the hypothesis that female mate choice could have driven the evolution of larger penises in humans. More broadly, our results show that precopulatory sexual selection can play a role in the evolution of genital traits. PMID:23569234

  17. Penis size interacts with body shape and height to influence male attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Mautz, Brian S; Wong, Bob B M; Peters, Richard A; Jennions, Michael D

    2013-04-23

    Compelling evidence from many animal taxa indicates that male genitalia are often under postcopulatory sexual selection for characteristics that increase a male's relative fertilization success. There could, however, also be direct precopulatory female mate choice based on male genital traits. Before clothing, the nonretractable human penis would have been conspicuous to potential mates. This observation has generated suggestions that human penis size partly evolved because of female choice. Here we show, based upon female assessment of digitally projected life-size, computer-generated images, that penis size interacts with body shape and height to determine male sexual attractiveness. Positive linear selection was detected for penis size, but the marginal increase in attractiveness eventually declined with greater penis size (i.e., quadratic selection). Penis size had a stronger effect on attractiveness in taller men than in shorter men. There was a similar increase in the positive effect of penis size on attractiveness with a more masculine body shape (i.e., greater shoulder-to-hip ratio). Surprisingly, larger penis size and greater height had almost equivalent positive effects on male attractiveness. Our results support the hypothesis that female mate choice could have driven the evolution of larger penises in humans. More broadly, our results show that precopulatory sexual selection can play a role in the evolution of genital traits.

  18. Bayesian inference for OPC modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burbine, Andrew; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David; Smith, Bruce W.

    2016-03-01

    The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and inference techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper aims to demonstrate the predictive power of Bayesian inference as a method for parameter selection in lithographic models by quantifying the uncertainty associated with model inputs and wafer data. Specifically, the method combines the model builder's prior information about each modelling assumption with the maximization of each observation's likelihood as a Student's t-distributed random variable. Through the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a model's parameter space is explored to find the most credible parameter values. During parameter exploration, the parameters' posterior distributions are generated by applying Bayes' rule, using a likelihood function and the a priori knowledge supplied. The MCMC algorithm used, an affine invariant ensemble sampler (AIES), is implemented by initializing many walkers which semiindependently explore the space. The convergence of these walkers to global maxima of the likelihood volume determine the parameter values' highest density intervals (HDI) to reveal champion models. We show that this method of parameter selection provides insights into the data that traditional methods do not and outline continued experiments to vet the method.

  19. Bayesian Vision for Shape Recovery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jalobeanu, Andre

    2004-01-01

    We present a new Bayesian vision technique that aims at recovering a shape from two or more noisy observations taken under similar lighting conditions. The shape is parametrized by a piecewise linear height field, textured by a piecewise linear irradiance field, and we assume Gaussian Markovian priors for both shape vertices and irradiance variables. The observation process. also known as rendering, is modeled by a non-affine projection (e.g. perspective projection) followed by a convolution with a piecewise linear point spread function. and contamination by additive Gaussian noise. We assume that the observation parameters are calibrated beforehand. The major novelty of the proposed method consists of marginalizing out the irradiances considered as nuisance parameters, which is achieved by Laplace approximations. This reduces the inference to minimizing an energy that only depends on the shape vertices, and therefore allows an efficient Iterated Conditional Mode (ICM) optimization scheme to be implemented. A Gaussian approximation of the posterior shape density is computed, thus providing estimates both the geometry and its uncertainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of the new method by shape reconstruction results in a 2D case. A 3D version is currently under development and aims at recovering a surface from multiple images, reconstructing the topography by marginalizing out both albedo and shading.

  20. Bayesian Vision for Shape Recovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jalobeanu, André

    2004-11-01

    We present a new Bayesian vision technique that aims at recovering a shape from two or more noisy observations taken under similar lighting conditions. The shape is parametrized by a piecewise linear height field, textured by a piecewise linear irradiance field, and we assume Gaussian Markovian priors for both shape vertices and irradiance variables. The modeled observation process, equivalent to rendering, is modeled by a non-affine projection (e.g. perspective projection) followed by a convolution with a piecewise linear point spread function, and contamination by additive Gaussian noise. We assume that the observation parameters are calibrated beforehand. The major novelty of the proposed method consists of marginalizing out the irradiances considered as nuisance parameters, which is achieved by a hierarchy of approximations. This reduces the inference to minimizing an energy that only depends on the shape vertices, and therefore allows an efficient Iterated Conditional Mode (ICM) optimization scheme to be implemented. A Gaussian approximation of the posterior shape density is computed, thus providing estimates of both the geometry and its uncertainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of the new method by shape reconstruction results in a 2D case. A 3D version is currently under development and aims at recovering a surface from multiple images, reconstructing the topography by marginalizing out both albedo and shading.