A multicenter study benchmarks software tools for label-free proteome quantification.

PubMed

Navarro, Pedro; Kuharev, Jörg; Gillet, Ludovic C; Bernhardt, Oliver M; MacLean, Brendan; Röst, Hannes L; Tate, Stephen A; Tsou, Chih-Chiang; Reiter, Lukas; Distler, Ute; Rosenberger, George; Perez-Riverol, Yasset; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I; Aebersold, Ruedi; Tenzer, Stefan

2016-11-01

Consistent and accurate quantification of proteins by mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics depends on the performance of instruments, acquisition methods and data analysis software. In collaboration with the software developers, we evaluated OpenSWATH, SWATH 2.0, Skyline, Spectronaut and DIA-Umpire, five of the most widely used software methods for processing data from sequential window acquisition of all theoretical fragment-ion spectra (SWATH)-MS, which uses data-independent acquisition (DIA) for label-free protein quantification. We analyzed high-complexity test data sets from hybrid proteome samples of defined quantitative composition acquired on two different MS instruments using different SWATH isolation-window setups. For consistent evaluation, we developed LFQbench, an R package, to calculate metrics of precision and accuracy in label-free quantitative MS and report the identification performance, robustness and specificity of each software tool. Our reference data sets enabled developers to improve their software tools. After optimization, all tools provided highly convergent identification and reliable quantification performance, underscoring their robustness for label-free quantitative proteomics.

Assessing potential health risks to fish and humans using mercury concentrations in inland fish from across western Canada and the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepak, Jesse M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Tate, Michael T.; Lutz, Michelle A.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Willacker, James J.; Jackson, Allyson K.; Evers, David C.; Wiener, James G.; Pritz, Colleen Flanagan; Davis, Jay

2016-01-01

Fish represent high quality protein and nutrient sources, but Hg contamination is ubiquitous in aquatic ecosystems and can pose health risks to fish and their consumers. Potential health risks posed to fish and humans by Hg contamination in fish were assessed in western Canada and the United States. A large compilation of inland fish Hg concentrations was evaluated in terms of potential health risk to the fish themselves, health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish, and to humans that consume Hg contaminated fish. The probability that a fish collected from a given location would exceed a Hg concentration benchmark relevant to a health risk was calculated. These exceedance probabilities and their associated uncertainties were characterized for fish of multiple size classes at multiple health-relevant benchmarks. The approach was novel and allowed for the assessment of the potential for deleterious health effects in fish and humans associated with Hg contamination in fish across this broad study area. Exceedance probabilities were relatively common at low Hg concentration benchmarks, particularly for fish in larger size classes. Specifically, median exceedances for the largest size classes of fish evaluated at the lowest Hg concentration benchmarks were 0.73 (potential health risks to fish themselves), 0.90 (potential health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish), and 0.97 (potential for restricted fish consumption by humans), but diminished to essentially zero at the highest benchmarks and smallest fish size classes. Exceedances of benchmarks are likely to have deleterious health effects on fish and limit recommended amounts of fish humans consume in western Canada and the United States. Results presented here are not intended to subvert or replace local fish Hg data or consumption advice, but provide a basis for identifying areas of potential health risk and developing more focused future research and monitoring efforts.

Quantification and characterization of leakage errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Christopher J.; Gambetta, Jay M.

2018-03-01

We present a general framework for the quantification and characterization of leakage errors that result when a quantum system is encoded in the subspace of a larger system. To do this we introduce metrics for quantifying the coherent and incoherent properties of the resulting errors and we illustrate this framework with several examples relevant to superconducting qubits. In particular, we propose two quantities, the leakage and seepage rates, which together with average gate fidelity allow for characterizing the average performance of quantum gates in the presence of leakage and show how the randomized benchmarking protocol can be modified to enable the robust estimation of all three quantities for a Clifford gate set.

QUANTIFICATION AND INTERPRETATION OF TOTAL PETROLEUM HYDROCARBONS IN SEDIMENT SAMPLES BY A GC/MS METHOD AND COMPARISON WITH EPA 418.1 AND A RAPID FIELD METHOD

EPA Science Inventory

ABSTRACT: Total Petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) as a lumped parameter can be easily and rapidly measured or monitored. Despite interpretational problems, it has become an accepted regulatory benchmark used widely to evaluate the extent of petroleum product contamination. Three cu...

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Systems via Multiple Indices based on Statistical Moments of Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Dell'Oca, A.

2017-12-01

We propose to ground sensitivity of uncertain parameters of environmental models on a set of indices based on the main (statistical) moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis, of the probability density function (pdf) of a target model output. This enables us to perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) of a model in terms of multiple statistical moments and yields a quantification of the impact of model parameters on features driving the shape of the pdf of model output. Our GSA approach includes the possibility of being coupled with the construction of a reduced complexity model that allows approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. We demonstrate our approach through a variety of test cases. These include a commonly used analytical benchmark, a simplified model representing pumping in a coastal aquifer, a laboratory-scale tracer experiment, and the migration of fracturing fluid through a naturally fractured reservoir (source) to reach an overlying formation (target). Our strategy allows discriminating the relative importance of model parameters to the four statistical moments considered. We also provide an appraisal of the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through the selected surrogate model. Our results suggest that one might need to construct a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The methodological framework we propose can assist the development of analysis techniques targeted to model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

A Probabilistic Framework for Peptide and Protein Quantification from Data-Dependent and Data-Independent LC-MS Proteomics Experiments

PubMed Central

Richardson, Keith; Denny, Richard; Hughes, Chris; Skilling, John; Sikora, Jacek; Dadlez, Michał; Manteca, Angel; Jung, Hye Ryung; Jensen, Ole Nørregaard; Redeker, Virginie; Melki, Ronald; Langridge, James I.; Vissers, Johannes P.C.

2013-01-01

A probability-based quantification framework is presented for the calculation of relative peptide and protein abundance in label-free and label-dependent LC-MS proteomics data. The results are accompanied by credible intervals and regulation probabilities. The algorithm takes into account data uncertainties via Poisson statistics modified by a noise contribution that is determined automatically during an initial normalization stage. Protein quantification relies on assignments of component peptides to the acquired data. These assignments are generally of variable reliability and may not be present across all of the experiments comprising an analysis. It is also possible for a peptide to be identified to more than one protein in a given mixture. For these reasons the algorithm accepts a prior probability of peptide assignment for each intensity measurement. The model is constructed in such a way that outliers of any type can be automatically reweighted. Two discrete normalization methods can be employed. The first method is based on a user-defined subset of peptides, while the second method relies on the presence of a dominant background of endogenous peptides for which the concentration is assumed to be unaffected. Normalization is performed using the same computational and statistical procedures employed by the main quantification algorithm. The performance of the algorithm will be illustrated on example data sets, and its utility demonstrated for typical proteomics applications. The quantification algorithm supports relative protein quantification based on precursor and product ion intensities acquired by means of data-dependent methods, originating from all common isotopically-labeled approaches, as well as label-free ion intensity-based data-independent methods. PMID:22871168

Assessing pathogen risk to swimmers at non-sewage impacted recreational beaches.

PubMed

Schoen, Mary E; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

2010-04-01

The risk of gastrointestinal illness to swimmers from fresh sewage and non-sewage fecal sources at recreational beaches was predicted using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The QMRA estimated the probability of illness for accidental ingestion of recreational water with a specific concentration of fecal indicator bacteria, here the geometric mean enterococci limit of 35 cfu 100 mL(-1), from either a mixture of sources or an individual source. Using seagulls as an example non-sewage fecal source, the predicted median probability of illness was less than the illness benchmark of 0.01. When the fecal source was changed to poorly treated sewage, a relativity small difference between the median probability of illness and the illness benchmark was predicted. For waters impacted by a mixture of seagull and sewage waste, the dominant source of fecal indicator was not always the predicted dominant source of risk.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Der Marck, S. C.

Three nuclear data libraries have been tested extensively using criticality safety benchmark calculations. The three libraries are the new release of the US library ENDF/B-VII.1 (2011), the new release of the Japanese library JENDL-4.0 (2011), and the OECD/NEA library JEFF-3.1 (2006). All calculations were performed with the continuous-energy Monte Carlo code MCNP (version 4C3, as well as version 6-beta1). Around 2000 benchmark cases from the International Handbook of Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP) were used. The results were analyzed per ICSBEP category, and per element. Overall, the three libraries show similar performance on most criticality safety benchmarks. The largest differencesmore » are probably caused by elements such as Be, C, Fe, Zr, W. (authors)« less

The PAC-MAN model: Benchmark case for linear acoustics in computational physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegelwanger, Harald; Reiter, Paul

2017-10-01

Benchmark cases in the field of computational physics, on the one hand, have to contain a certain complexity to test numerical edge cases and, on the other hand, require the existence of an analytical solution, because an analytical solution allows the exact quantification of the accuracy of a numerical simulation method. This dilemma causes a need for analytical sound field formulations of complex acoustic problems. A well known example for such a benchmark case for harmonic linear acoustics is the ;Cat's Eye model;, which describes the three-dimensional sound field radiated from a sphere with a missing octant analytically. In this paper, a benchmark case for two-dimensional (2D) harmonic linear acoustic problems, viz., the ;PAC-MAN model;, is proposed. The PAC-MAN model describes the radiated and scattered sound field around an infinitely long cylinder with a cut out sector of variable angular width. While the analytical calculation of the 2D sound field allows different angular cut-out widths and arbitrarily positioned line sources, the computational cost associated with the solution of this problem is similar to a 1D problem because of a modal formulation of the sound field in the PAC-MAN model.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Pebble Bed HTGR Loss of Cooling Event

DOE PAGES

Strydom, Gerhard

2013-01-01

The Very High Temperature Reactor Methods Development group at the Idaho National Laboratory identified the need for a defensible and systematic uncertainty and sensitivity approach in 2009. This paper summarizes the results of an uncertainty and sensitivity quantification investigation performed with the SUSA code, utilizing the International Atomic Energy Agency CRP 5 Pebble Bed Modular Reactor benchmark and the INL code suite PEBBED-THERMIX. Eight model input parameters were selected for inclusion in this study, and after the input parameters variations and probability density functions were specified, a total of 800 steady state and depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) transientmore » PEBBED-THERMIX calculations were performed. The six data sets were statistically analyzed to determine the 5% and 95% DLOFC peak fuel temperature tolerance intervals with 95% confidence levels. It was found that the uncertainties in the decay heat and graphite thermal conductivities were the most significant contributors to the propagated DLOFC peak fuel temperature uncertainty. No significant differences were observed between the results of Simple Random Sampling (SRS) or Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) data sets, and use of uniform or normal input parameter distributions also did not lead to any significant differences between these data sets.« less

Benchmarks for detecting 'breakthroughs' in clinical trials: empirical assessment of the probability of large treatment effects using kernel density estimation.

PubMed

Miladinovic, Branko; Kumar, Ambuj; Mhaskar, Rahul; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2014-10-21

To understand how often 'breakthroughs,' that is, treatments that significantly improve health outcomes, can be developed. We applied weighted adaptive kernel density estimation to construct the probability density function for observed treatment effects from five publicly funded cohorts and one privately funded group. 820 trials involving 1064 comparisons and enrolling 331,004 patients were conducted by five publicly funded cooperative groups. 40 cancer trials involving 50 comparisons and enrolling a total of 19,889 patients were conducted by GlaxoSmithKline. We calculated that the probability of detecting treatment with large effects is 10% (5-25%), and that the probability of detecting treatment with very large treatment effects is 2% (0.3-10%). Researchers themselves judged that they discovered a new, breakthrough intervention in 16% of trials. We propose these figures as the benchmarks against which future development of 'breakthrough' treatments should be measured. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Lamb wave-based damage quantification and probability of detection modeling for fatigue life assessment of riveted lap joint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jingjing; Wang, Dengjiang; Zhang, Weifang

2015-03-01

This study presents an experimental and modeling study for damage detection and quantification in riveted lap joints. Embedded lead zirconate titanate piezoelectric (PZT) ceramic wafer-type sensors are employed to perform in-situ non-destructive testing during fatigue cyclical loading. A multi-feature integration method is developed to quantify the crack size using signal features of correlation coefficient, amplitude change, and phase change. In addition, probability of detection (POD) model is constructed to quantify the reliability of the developed sizing method. Using the developed crack size quantification method and the resulting POD curve, probabilistic fatigue life prediction can be performed to provide comprehensive information for decision-making. The effectiveness of the overall methodology is demonstrated and validated using several aircraft lap joint specimens from different manufactures and under different loading conditions.

A comprehensive study of the delay vector variance method for quantification of nonlinearity in dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Mandic, D. P.; Ryan, K.; Basu, B.; Pakrashi, V.

2016-01-01

Although vibration monitoring is a popular method to monitor and assess dynamic structures, quantification of linearity or nonlinearity of the dynamic responses remains a challenging problem. We investigate the delay vector variance (DVV) method in this regard in a comprehensive manner to establish the degree to which a change in signal nonlinearity can be related to system nonlinearity and how a change in system parameters affects the nonlinearity in the dynamic response of the system. A wide range of theoretical situations are considered in this regard using a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system to obtain numerical benchmarks. A number of experiments are then carried out using a physical SDOF model in the laboratory. Finally, a composite wind turbine blade is tested for different excitations and the dynamic responses are measured at a number of points to extend the investigation to continuum structures. The dynamic responses were measured using accelerometers, strain gauges and a Laser Doppler vibrometer. This comprehensive study creates a numerical and experimental benchmark for structurally dynamical systems where output-only information is typically available, especially in the context of DVV. The study also allows for comparative analysis between different systems driven by the similar input. PMID:26909175

Regression models for explaining and predicting concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in fish from streams in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowell, Lisa H.; Crawford, Charles G.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Nakagaki, Naomi; Stone, Wesley W.; Thelin, Gail; Wolock, David M.

2009-01-01

Empirical regression models were developed for estimating concentrations of dieldrin, total chlordane, and total DDT in whole fish from U.S. streams. Models were based on pesticide concentrations measured in whole fish at 648 stream sites nationwide (1992-2001) as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Explanatory variables included fish lipid content, estimates (or surrogates) representing historical agricultural and urban sources, watershed characteristics, and geographic location. Models were developed using Tobit regression methods appropriate for data with censoring. Typically, the models explain approximately 50 to 70% of the variability in pesticide concentrations measured in whole fish. The models were used to predict pesticide concentrations in whole fish for streams nationwide using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's River Reach File 1 and to estimate the probability that whole-fish concentrations exceed benchmarks for protection of fish-eating wildlife. Predicted concentrations were highest for dieldrin in the Corn Belt, Texas, and scattered urban areas; for total chlordane in the Corn Belt, Texas, the Southeast, and urbanized Northeast; and for total DDT in the Southeast, Texas, California, and urban areas nationwide. The probability of exceeding wildlife benchmarks for dieldrin and chlordane was predicted to be low for most U.S. streams. The probability of exceeding wildlife benchmarks for total DDT is higher but varies depending on the fish taxon and on the benchmark used. Because the models in the present study are based on fish data collected during the 1990s and organochlorine pesticide residues in the environment continue to decline decades after their uses were discontinued, these models may overestimate present-day pesticide concentrations in fish. ?? 2009 SETAC.

CMOS based image cytometry for detection of phytoplankton in ballast water.

PubMed

Pérez, J M; Jofre, M; Martínez, P; Yáñez, M A; Catalan, V; Parker, A; Veldhuis, M; Pruneri, V

2017-02-01

We introduce an image cytometer (I-CYT) for the analysis of phytoplankton in fresh and marine water environments. A linear quantification of cell numbers was observed covering several orders of magnitude using cultures of Tetraselmis and Nannochloropsis measured by autofluorescence in a laboratory environment. We assessed the functionality of the system outside the laboratory by phytoplankton quantification of samples taken from a marine water environment (Dutch Wadden Sea, The Netherlands) and a fresh water environment (Lake Ijssel, The Netherlands). The I-CYT was also employed to study the effects of two ballast water treatment systems (BWTS), based on chlorine electrolysis and UV sterilization, with the analysis including the vitality of the phytoplankton. For comparative study and benchmarking of the I-CYT, a standard flow cytometer was used. Our results prove a limit of detection (LOD) of 10 cells/ml with an accuracy between 0.7 and 0.5 log, and a correlation of 88.29% in quantification and 96.21% in vitality, with respect to the flow cytometry results.

Information-Theoretic Benchmarking of Land Surface Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Grey; Mocko, David; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Xia, Youlong

2016-04-01

Benchmarking is a type of model evaluation that compares model performance against a baseline metric that is derived, typically, from a different existing model. Statistical benchmarking was used to qualitatively show that land surface models do not fully utilize information in boundary conditions [1] several years before Gong et al [2] discovered the particular type of benchmark that makes it possible to *quantify* the amount of information lost by an incorrect or imperfect model structure. This theoretical development laid the foundation for a formal theory of model benchmarking [3]. We here extend that theory to separate uncertainty contributions from the three major components of dynamical systems models [4]: model structures, model parameters, and boundary conditions describe time-dependent details of each prediction scenario. The key to this new development is the use of large-sample [5] data sets that span multiple soil types, climates, and biomes, which allows us to segregate uncertainty due to parameters from the two other sources. The benefit of this approach for uncertainty quantification and segregation is that it does not rely on Bayesian priors (although it is strictly coherent with Bayes' theorem and with probability theory), and therefore the partitioning of uncertainty into different components is *not* dependent on any a priori assumptions. We apply this methodology to assess the information use efficiency of the four land surface models that comprise the North American Land Data Assimilation System (Noah, Mosaic, SAC-SMA, and VIC). Specifically, we looked at the ability of these models to estimate soil moisture and latent heat fluxes. We found that in the case of soil moisture, about 25% of net information loss was from boundary conditions, around 45% was from model parameters, and 30-40% was from the model structures. In the case of latent heat flux, boundary conditions contributed about 50% of net uncertainty, and model structures contributed about 40%. There was relatively little difference between the different models. 1. G. Abramowitz, R. Leuning, M. Clark, A. Pitman, Evaluating the performance of land surface models. Journal of Climate 21, (2008). 2. W. Gong, H. V. Gupta, D. Yang, K. Sricharan, A. O. Hero, Estimating Epistemic & Aleatory Uncertainties During Hydrologic Modeling: An Information Theoretic Approach. Water Resources Research 49, 2253-2273 (2013). 3. G. S. Nearing, H. V. Gupta, The quantity and quality of information in hydrologic models. Water Resources Research 51, 524-538 (2015). 4. H. V. Gupta, G. S. Nearing, Using models and data to learn: A systems theoretic perspective on the future of hydrological science. Water Resources Research 50(6), 5351-5359 (2014). 5. H. V. Gupta et al., Large-sample hydrology: a need to balance depth with breadth. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10, 9147-9189 (2013).

Quantification of OH and HO2 radicals during the low-temperature oxidation of hydrocarbons by Fluorescence Assay by Gas Expansion technique

PubMed Central

Blocquet, Marion; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Amedro, Damien; Herbinet, Olivier; Battin-Leclerc, Frédérique; Fittschen, Christa

2013-01-01

•OH and •HO2 radicals are known to be the key species in the development of ignition. A direct measurement of these radicals under low-temperature oxidation conditions (T = 550–1,000 K) has been achieved by coupling a technique named fluorescence assay by gas expansion, an experimental technique designed for the quantification of these radicals in the free atmosphere, to a jet-stirred reactor, an experimental device designed for the study of low-temperature combustion chemistry. Calibration allows conversion of relative fluorescence signals to absolute mole fractions. Such radical mole fraction profiles will serve as a benchmark for testing chemical models developed to improve the understanding of combustion processes. PMID:24277836

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiaxin; Shields, Michael D.

2018-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of uncertainty quantification and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are scarce. We propose a methodology wherein the full uncertainty associated with probability model form and parameter estimation are retained and efficiently propagated. This is achieved by applying the information-theoretic multimodel inference method to identify plausible candidate probability densities and associated probabilities that each method is the best model in the Kullback-Leibler sense. The joint parameter densities for each plausible model are then estimated using Bayes' rule. We then propagate this full set of probability models by estimating an optimal importance sampling density that is representative of all plausible models, propagating this density, and reweighting the samples according to each of the candidate probability models. This is in contrast with conventional methods that try to identify a single probability model that encapsulates the full uncertainty caused by lack of data and consequently underestimate uncertainty. The result is a complete probabilistic description of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty achieved with several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost. It is shown how the model can be updated to adaptively accommodate added data and added candidate probability models. The method is applied for uncertainty analysis of plate buckling strength where it is demonstrated how dataset size affects the confidence (or lack thereof) we can place in statistical estimates of response when data are lacking.

A DDDAS Framework for Volcanic Ash Propagation and Hazard Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

probability distribution for the input variables (for example, Hermite polynomials for normally distributed parameters, or Legendre for uniformly...parameters and windfields will drive our simulations. We will use uncertainty quantification methodology – polynomial chaos quadrature in combination...quantification methodology ? polynomial chaos quadrature in combination with data integration to complete the DDDAS loop. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY

Ariadne's Thread: A Robust Software Solution Leading to Automated Absolute and Relative Quantification of SRM Data.

PubMed

Nasso, Sara; Goetze, Sandra; Martens, Lennart

2015-09-04

Selected reaction monitoring (SRM) MS is a highly selective and sensitive technique to quantify protein abundances in complex biological samples. To enhance the pace of SRM large studies, a validated, robust method to fully automate absolute quantification and to substitute for interactive evaluation would be valuable. To address this demand, we present Ariadne, a Matlab software. To quantify monitored targets, Ariadne exploits metadata imported from the transition lists, and targets can be filtered according to mProphet output. Signal processing and statistical learning approaches are combined to compute peptide quantifications. To robustly estimate absolute abundances, the external calibration curve method is applied, ensuring linearity over the measured dynamic range. Ariadne was benchmarked against mProphet and Skyline by comparing its quantification performance on three different dilution series, featuring either noisy/smooth traces without background or smooth traces with complex background. Results, evaluated as efficiency, linearity, accuracy, and precision of quantification, showed that Ariadne's performance is independent of data smoothness and complex background presence and that Ariadne outperforms mProphet on the noisier data set and improved 2-fold Skyline's accuracy and precision for the lowest abundant dilution with complex background. Remarkably, Ariadne could statistically distinguish from each other all different abundances, discriminating dilutions as low as 0.1 and 0.2 fmol. These results suggest that Ariadne offers reliable and automated analysis of large-scale SRM differential expression studies.

Ranking Fragment Ions Based on Outlier Detection for Improved Label-Free Quantification in Data-Independent Acquisition LC-MS/MS

PubMed Central

Bilbao, Aivett; Zhang, Ying; Varesio, Emmanuel; Luban, Jeremy; Strambio-De-Castillia, Caterina; Lisacek, Frédérique; Hopfgartner, Gérard

2016-01-01

Data-independent acquisition LC-MS/MS techniques complement supervised methods for peptide quantification. However, due to the wide precursor isolation windows, these techniques are prone to interference at the fragment ion level, which in turn is detrimental for accurate quantification. The “non-outlier fragment ion” (NOFI) ranking algorithm has been developed to assign low priority to fragment ions affected by interference. By using the optimal subset of high priority fragment ions these interfered fragment ions are effectively excluded from quantification. NOFI represents each fragment ion as a vector of four dimensions related to chromatographic and MS fragmentation attributes and applies multivariate outlier detection techniques. Benchmarking conducted on a well-defined quantitative dataset (i.e. the SWATH Gold Standard), indicates that NOFI on average is able to accurately quantify 11-25% more peptides than the commonly used Top-N library intensity ranking method. The sum of the area of the Top3-5 NOFIs produces similar coefficients of variation as compared to the library intensity method but with more accurate quantification results. On a biologically relevant human dendritic cell digest dataset, NOFI properly assigns low priority ranks to 85% of annotated interferences, resulting in sensitivity values between 0.92 and 0.80 against 0.76 for the Spectronaut interference detection algorithm. PMID:26412574

Robust approaches to quantification of margin and uncertainty for sparse data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hund, Lauren; Schroeder, Benjamin B.; Rumsey, Kelin

Characterizing the tails of probability distributions plays a key role in quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU), where the goal is characterization of low probability, high consequence events based on continuous measures of performance. When data are collected using physical experimentation, probability distributions are typically fit using statistical methods based on the collected data, and these parametric distributional assumptions are often used to extrapolate about the extreme tail behavior of the underlying probability distribution. In this project, we character- ize the risk associated with such tail extrapolation. Specifically, we conducted a scaling study to demonstrate the large magnitude of themore » risk; then, we developed new methods for communicat- ing risk associated with tail extrapolation from unvalidated statistical models; lastly, we proposed a Bayesian data-integration framework to mitigate tail extrapolation risk through integrating ad- ditional information. We conclude that decision-making using QMU is a complex process that cannot be achieved using statistical analyses alone.« less

A Simple Graphical Method for Quantification of Disaster Management Surge Capacity Using Computer Simulation and Process-control Tools.

PubMed

Franc, Jeffrey Michael; Ingrassia, Pier Luigi; Verde, Manuela; Colombo, Davide; Della Corte, Francesco

2015-02-01

Surge capacity, or the ability to manage an extraordinary volume of patients, is fundamental for hospital management of mass-casualty incidents. However, quantification of surge capacity is difficult and no universal standard for its measurement has emerged, nor has a standardized statistical method been advocated. As mass-casualty incidents are rare, simulation may represent a viable alternative to measure surge capacity. Hypothesis/Problem The objective of the current study was to develop a statistical method for the quantification of surge capacity using a combination of computer simulation and simple process-control statistical tools. Length-of-stay (LOS) and patient volume (PV) were used as metrics. The use of this method was then demonstrated on a subsequent computer simulation of an emergency department (ED) response to a mass-casualty incident. In the derivation phase, 357 participants in five countries performed 62 computer simulations of an ED response to a mass-casualty incident. Benchmarks for ED response were derived from these simulations, including LOS and PV metrics for triage, bed assignment, physician assessment, and disposition. In the application phase, 13 students of the European Master in Disaster Medicine (EMDM) program completed the same simulation scenario, and the results were compared to the standards obtained in the derivation phase. Patient-volume metrics included number of patients to be triaged, assigned to rooms, assessed by a physician, and disposed. Length-of-stay metrics included median time to triage, room assignment, physician assessment, and disposition. Simple graphical methods were used to compare the application phase group to the derived benchmarks using process-control statistical tools. The group in the application phase failed to meet the indicated standard for LOS from admission to disposition decision. This study demonstrates how simulation software can be used to derive values for objective benchmarks of ED surge capacity using PV and LOS metrics. These objective metrics can then be applied to other simulation groups using simple graphical process-control tools to provide a numeric measure of surge capacity. Repeated use in simulations of actual EDs may represent a potential means of objectively quantifying disaster management surge capacity. It is hoped that the described statistical method, which is simple and reusable, will be useful for investigators in this field to apply to their own research.

GC-MS quantification of suspected volatile allergens in fragrances. 2. Data treatment strategies and method performances.

PubMed

Bassereau, Maud; Chaintreau, Alain; Duperrex, Stéphanie; Joulain, Daniel; Leijs, Hans; Loesing, Gerd; Owen, Neil; Sherlock, Alan; Schippa, Christine; Thorel, Pierre-Jean; Vey, Matthias

2007-01-10

The performances of the GC-MS determination of suspected allergens in fragrance concentrates have been investigated. The limit of quantification was experimentally determined (10 mg/L), and the variability was investigated for three different data treatment strategies: (1) two columns and three quantification ions; (2) two columns and one quantification ion; and (3) one column and three quantification ions. The first strategy best minimizes the risk of determination bias due to coelutions. This risk was evaluated by calculating the probability of coeluting a suspected allergen with perfume constituents exhibiting ions in common. For hydroxycitronellal, when using a two-column strategy, this may statistically occur more than once every 36 analyses for one ion or once every 144 analyses for three ions in common.

A New Method for Generating Probability Tables in the Unresolved Resonance Region

DOE PAGES

Holcomb, Andrew M.; Leal, Luiz C.; Rahnema, Farzad; ...

2017-04-18

One new method for constructing probability tables in the unresolved resonance region (URR) has been developed. This new methodology is an extensive modification of the single-level Breit-Wigner (SLBW) pseudo-resonance pair sequence method commonly used to generate probability tables in the URR. The new method uses a Monte Carlo process to generate many pseudo-resonance sequences by first sampling the average resonance parameter data in the URR and then converting the sampled resonance parameters to the more robust R-matrix limited (RML) format. Furthermore, for each sampled set of pseudo-resonance sequences, the temperature-dependent cross sections are reconstructed on a small grid around themore » energy of reference using the Reich-Moore formalism and the Leal-Hwang Doppler broadening methodology. We then use the effective cross sections calculated at the energies of reference to construct probability tables in the URR. The RML cross-section reconstruction algorithm has been rigorously tested for a variety of isotopes, including 16O, 19F, 35Cl, 56Fe, 63Cu, and 65Cu. The new URR method also produced normalized cross-section factor probability tables for 238U that were found to be in agreement with current standards. The modified 238U probability tables were shown to produce results in excellent agreement with several standard benchmarks, including the IEU-MET-FAST-007 (BIG TEN), IEU-MET-FAST-003, and IEU-COMP-FAST-004 benchmarks.« less

Optimized selection of benchmark test parameters for image watermark algorithms based on Taguchi methods and corresponding influence on design decisions for real-world applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Tony F.; Cushman, David A.

2003-06-01

With the growing commercialization of watermarking techniques in various application scenarios it has become increasingly important to quantify the performance of watermarking products. The quantification of relative merits of various products is not only essential in enabling further adoption of the technology by society as a whole, but will also drive the industry to develop testing plans/methodologies to ensure quality and minimize cost (to both vendors & customers.) While the research community understands the theoretical need for a publicly available benchmarking system to quantify performance, there has been less discussion on the practical application of these systems. By providing a standard set of acceptance criteria, benchmarking systems can dramatically increase the quality of a particular watermarking solution, validating the product performances if they are used efficiently and frequently during the design process. In this paper we describe how to leverage specific design of experiments techniques to increase the quality of a watermarking scheme, to be used with the benchmark tools being developed by the Ad-Hoc Watermark Verification Group. A Taguchi Loss Function is proposed for an application and orthogonal arrays used to isolate optimal levels for a multi-factor experimental situation. Finally, the results are generalized to a population of cover works and validated through an exhaustive test.

Development and application of freshwater sediment-toxicity benchmarks for currently used pesticides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowell, Lisa H.; Norman, Julia E.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.; Moran, Patrick W.

2016-01-01

Sediment-toxicity benchmarks are needed to interpret the biological significance of currently used pesticides detected in whole sediments. Two types of freshwater sediment benchmarks for pesticides were developed using spiked-sediment bioassay (SSB) data from the literature. These benchmarks can be used to interpret sediment-toxicity data or to assess the potential toxicity of pesticides in whole sediment. The Likely Effect Benchmark (LEB) defines a pesticide concentration in whole sediment above which there is a high probability of adverse effects on benthic invertebrates, and the Threshold Effect Benchmark (TEB) defines a concentration below which adverse effects are unlikely. For compounds without available SSBs, benchmarks were estimated using equilibrium partitioning (EqP). When a sediment sample contains a pesticide mixture, benchmark quotients can be summed for all detected pesticides to produce an indicator of potential toxicity for that mixture. Benchmarks were developed for 48 pesticide compounds using SSB data and 81 compounds using the EqP approach. In an example application, data for pesticides measured in sediment from 197 streams across the United States were evaluated using these benchmarks, and compared to measured toxicity from whole-sediment toxicity tests conducted with the amphipod Hyalella azteca (28-d exposures) and the midge Chironomus dilutus (10-d exposures). Amphipod survival, weight, and biomass were significantly and inversely related to summed benchmark quotients, whereas midge survival, weight, and biomass showed no relationship to benchmarks. Samples with LEB exceedances were rare (n = 3), but all were toxic to amphipods (i.e., significantly different from control). Significant toxicity to amphipods was observed for 72% of samples exceeding one or more TEBs, compared to 18% of samples below all TEBs. Factors affecting toxicity below TEBs may include the presence of contaminants other than pesticides, physical/chemical characteristics of sediment, and uncertainty in TEB values. Additional evaluations of benchmarks in relation to sediment chemistry and toxicity are ongoing.

Dual Approach To Superquantile Estimation And Applications To Density Fitting

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

incorporate additional constraints to improve the fidelity of density estimates in tail regions. We limit our investigation to data with heavy tails, where...samples of various heavy -tailed distributions. 14. SUBJECT TERMS probability density estimation, epi-splines, optimization, risk quantification...limit our investigation to data with heavy tails, where risk quantification is typically the most difficult. Demonstrations are provided in the form of

Realized detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) using modified floating aquatic funnel traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Skalos, Shannon M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Wylie, Glenn D.

2015-01-01

Detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) are very low, and successfully evaluating the effects of variables or experimental treatments on giant gartersnake populations will require greater detection and capture probabilities than those that had been achieved with standard trap designs. Previous research identified important trap modifications that can increase the probability of snakes entering traps and help prevent the escape of captured snakes. The purpose of this study was to quantify detection and capture probabilities obtained using the most successful modification to commercially available traps to date (2015), and examine the ability of realized detection and capture probabilities to achieve benchmark levels of precision in occupancy and capture-mark-recapture studies.

Uncertainty quantification for complex systems with very high dimensional response using Grassmann manifold variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giovanis, D. G.; Shields, M. D.

2018-07-01

This paper addresses uncertainty quantification (UQ) for problems where scalar (or low-dimensional vector) response quantities are insufficient and, instead, full-field (very high-dimensional) responses are of interest. To do so, an adaptive stochastic simulation-based methodology is introduced that refines the probability space based on Grassmann manifold variations. The proposed method has a multi-element character discretizing the probability space into simplex elements using a Delaunay triangulation. For every simplex, the high-dimensional solutions corresponding to its vertices (sample points) are projected onto the Grassmann manifold. The pairwise distances between these points are calculated using appropriately defined metrics and the elements with large total distance are sub-sampled and refined. As a result, regions of the probability space that produce significant changes in the full-field solution are accurately resolved. An added benefit is that an approximation of the solution within each element can be obtained by interpolation on the Grassmann manifold. The method is applied to study the probability of shear band formation in a bulk metallic glass using the shear transformation zone theory.

Benchmarking PARTISN with Analog Monte Carlo: Moments of the Neutron Number and the Cumulative Fission Number Probability Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Rourke, Patrick Francis

The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with an understanding of how a Monte Carlo neutron transport code was written, developed, and evolved to calculate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) and their moments for the neutron number at a final time as well as the cumulative fission number, along with introducing several basic Monte Carlo concepts.

The Paucity Problem: Where Have All the Space Reactor Experiments Gone?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bess, John D.; Marshall, Margaret A.

2016-10-01

The Handbooks of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) and the International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) together contain a plethora of documented and evaluated experiments essential in the validation of nuclear data, neutronics codes, and modeling of various nuclear systems. Unfortunately, only a minute selection of handbook data (twelve evaluations) are of actual experimental facilities and mockups designed specifically for space nuclear research. There is a paucity problem, such that the multitude of space nuclear experimental activities performed in the past several decades have yet to be recovered and made available in such detail that themore » international community could benefit from these valuable historical research efforts. Those experiments represent extensive investments in infrastructure, expertise, and cost, as well as constitute significantly valuable resources of data supporting past, present, and future research activities. The ICSBEP and IRPhEP were established to identify and verify comprehensive sets of benchmark data; evaluate the data, including quantification of biases and uncertainties; compile the data and calculations in a standardized format; and formally document the effort into a single source of verified benchmark data. See full abstract in attached document.« less

Data processing has major impact on the outcome of quantitative label-free LC-MS analysis.

PubMed

Chawade, Aakash; Sandin, Marianne; Teleman, Johan; Malmström, Johan; Levander, Fredrik

2015-02-06

High-throughput multiplexed protein quantification using mass spectrometry is steadily increasing in popularity, with the two major techniques being data-dependent acquisition (DDA) and targeted acquisition using selected reaction monitoring (SRM). However, both techniques involve extensive data processing, which can be performed by a multitude of different software solutions. Analysis of quantitative LC-MS/MS data is mainly performed in three major steps: processing of raw data, normalization, and statistical analysis. To evaluate the impact of data processing steps, we developed two new benchmark data sets, one each for DDA and SRM, with samples consisting of a long-range dilution series of synthetic peptides spiked in a total cell protein digest. The generated data were processed by eight different software workflows and three postprocessing steps. The results show that the choice of the raw data processing software and the postprocessing steps play an important role in the final outcome. Also, the linear dynamic range of the DDA data could be extended by an order of magnitude through feature alignment and a charge state merging algorithm proposed here. Furthermore, the benchmark data sets are made publicly available for further benchmarking and software developments.

77 FR 64317 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-19

... Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) Meeting, including: Results of the vermilion snapper and red porgy assessments and the yellowtail snapper benchmark assessment; and the probability of rebuilding for black sea...

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques of SCALE/TSUNAMI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Mueller, Don

2011-01-01

The Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) includes Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI). The TSUNAMI code suite can quantify the predicted change in system responses, such as k{sub eff}, reactivity differences, or ratios of fluxes or reaction rates, due to changes in the energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific cross-section data. Where uncertainties in the neutron cross-section data are available, the sensitivity of the system to the cross-section data can be applied to propagate the uncertainties in the cross-section data to an uncertainty in the system response. Uncertainty quantification ismore » useful for identifying potential sources of computational biases and highlighting parameters important to code validation. Traditional validation techniques often examine one or more average physical parameters to characterize a system and identify applicable benchmark experiments. However, with TSUNAMI correlation coefficients are developed by propagating the uncertainties in neutron cross-section data to uncertainties in the computed responses for experiments and safety applications through sensitivity coefficients. The bias in the experiments, as a function of their correlation coefficient with the intended application, is extrapolated to predict the bias and bias uncertainty in the application through trending analysis or generalized linear least squares techniques, often referred to as 'data adjustment.' Even with advanced tools to identify benchmark experiments, analysts occasionally find that the application models include some feature or material for which adequately similar benchmark experiments do not exist to support validation. For example, a criticality safety analyst may want to take credit for the presence of fission products in spent nuclear fuel. In such cases, analysts sometimes rely on 'expert judgment' to select an additional administrative margin to account for gap in the validation data or to conclude that the impact on the calculated bias and bias uncertainty is negligible. As a result of advances in computer programs and the evolution of cross-section covariance data, analysts can use the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools in the TSUNAMI codes to estimate the potential impact on the application-specific bias and bias uncertainty resulting from nuclides not represented in available benchmark experiments. This paper presents the application of methods described in a companion paper.« less

On the complex quantification of risk: systems-based perspective on terrorism.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2011-08-01

This article highlights the complexity of the quantification of the multidimensional risk function, develops five systems-based premises on quantifying the risk of terrorism to a threatened system, and advocates the quantification of vulnerability and resilience through the states of the system. The five premises are: (i) There exists interdependence between a specific threat to a system by terrorist networks and the states of the targeted system, as represented through the system's vulnerability, resilience, and criticality-impact. (ii) A specific threat, its probability, its timing, the states of the targeted system, and the probability of consequences can be interdependent. (iii) The two questions in the risk assessment process: "What is the likelihood?" and "What are the consequences?" can be interdependent. (iv) Risk management policy options can reduce both the likelihood of a threat to a targeted system and the associated likelihood of consequences by changing the states (including both vulnerability and resilience) of the system. (v) The quantification of risk to a vulnerable system from a specific threat must be built on a systemic and repeatable modeling process, by recognizing that the states of the system constitute an essential step to construct quantitative metrics of the consequences based on intelligence gathering, expert evidence, and other qualitative information. The fact that the states of all systems are functions of time (among other variables) makes the time frame pivotal in each component of the process of risk assessment, management, and communication. Thus, risk to a system, caused by an initiating event (e.g., a threat) is a multidimensional function of the specific threat, its probability and time frame, the states of the system (representing vulnerability and resilience), and the probabilistic multidimensional consequences. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

The hydrologic bench-mark program; a standard to evaluate time-series trends in selected water-quality constituents for streams in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buell, G.R.; Grams, S.C.

1985-01-01

Significant temporal trends in monthly pH, specific conductance, total alkalinity, hardness, total nitrite-plus-nitrite nitrogen, and total phosphorus measurements at five stream sites in Georgia were identified using a rank correlation technique, the seasonal Kendall test and slope estimator. These sites include a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Bench-Mark site, Falling Creek near Juliette, and four periodic water-quality monitoring sites. Comparison of raw data trends with streamflow-residual trends and, where applicable, with chemical-discharge trends (instantaneous fluxes) shws that some of these trends are responses to factors other than changing streamflow. Percentages of forested, agricultural, and urban cover with each basin did not change much during the periods of water-quality record, and therefore these non-flow-related trends are not obviously related to changes in land cover or land use. Flow-residual water-quality trends at the Hydrologic Bench-Mark site and at the Chattooga River site probably indicate basin reponses to changes in the chemical quality of atmospheric deposition. These two basins are predominantly forested and have received little recent human use. Observed trends at the other three sites probably indicate basin responses to various land uses and water uses associated with agricultural and urban land or to changes in specific uses. (USGS)

Information theoretic quantification of diagnostic uncertainty.

PubMed

Westover, M Brandon; Eiseman, Nathaniel A; Cash, Sydney S; Bianchi, Matt T

2012-01-01

Diagnostic test interpretation remains a challenge in clinical practice. Most physicians receive training in the use of Bayes' rule, which specifies how the sensitivity and specificity of a test for a given disease combine with the pre-test probability to quantify the change in disease probability incurred by a new test result. However, multiple studies demonstrate physicians' deficiencies in probabilistic reasoning, especially with unexpected test results. Information theory, a branch of probability theory dealing explicitly with the quantification of uncertainty, has been proposed as an alternative framework for diagnostic test interpretation, but is even less familiar to physicians. We have previously addressed one key challenge in the practical application of Bayes theorem: the handling of uncertainty in the critical first step of estimating the pre-test probability of disease. This essay aims to present the essential concepts of information theory to physicians in an accessible manner, and to extend previous work regarding uncertainty in pre-test probability estimation by placing this type of uncertainty within a principled information theoretic framework. We address several obstacles hindering physicians' application of information theoretic concepts to diagnostic test interpretation. These include issues of terminology (mathematical meanings of certain information theoretic terms differ from clinical or common parlance) as well as the underlying mathematical assumptions. Finally, we illustrate how, in information theoretic terms, one can understand the effect on diagnostic uncertainty of considering ranges instead of simple point estimates of pre-test probability.

Availability of Neutronics Benchmarks in the ICSBEP and IRPhEP Handbooks for Computational Tools Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bess, John D.; Briggs, J. Blair; Ivanova, Tatiana

2017-02-01

In the past several decades, numerous experiments have been performed worldwide to support reactor operations, measurements, design, and nuclear safety. Those experiments represent an extensive international investment in infrastructure, expertise, and cost, representing significantly valuable resources of data supporting past, current, and future research activities. Those valuable assets represent the basis for recording, development, and validation of our nuclear methods and integral nuclear data [1]. The loss of these experimental data, which has occurred all too much in the recent years, is tragic. The high cost to repeat many of these measurements can be prohibitive, if not impossible, to surmount.more » Two international projects were developed, and are under the direction of the Organisation for Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD NEA) to address the challenges of not just data preservation, but evaluation of the data to determine its merit for modern and future use. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) was established to identify and verify comprehensive critical benchmark data sets; evaluate the data, including quantification of biases and uncertainties; compile the data and calculations in a standardized format; and formally document the effort into a single source of verified benchmark data [2]. Similarly, the International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) was established to preserve integral reactor physics experimental data, including separate or special effects data for nuclear energy and technology applications [3]. Annually, contributors from around the world continue to collaborate in the evaluation and review of select benchmark experiments for preservation and dissemination. The extensively peer-reviewed integral benchmark data can then be utilized to support nuclear design and safety analysts to validate the analytical tools, methods, and data needed for next-generation reactor design, safety analysis requirements, and all other front- and back-end activities contributing to the overall nuclear fuel cycle where quality neutronics calculations are paramount.« less

Creation of problem-dependent Doppler-broadened cross sections in the KENO Monte Carlo code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hart, Shane W. D.; Celik, Cihangir; Maldonado, G. Ivan

2015-11-06

In this paper, we introduce a quick method for improving the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations by generating one- and two-dimensional cross sections at a user-defined temperature before performing transport calculations. A finite difference method is used to Doppler-broaden cross sections to the desired temperature, and unit-base interpolation is done to generate the probability distributions for double differential two-dimensional thermal moderator cross sections at any arbitrarily user-defined temperature. The accuracy of these methods is tested using a variety of contrived problems. In addition, various benchmarks at elevated temperatures are modeled, and results are compared with benchmark results. Lastly, the problem-dependentmore » cross sections are observed to produce eigenvalue estimates that are closer to the benchmark results than those without the problem-dependent cross sections.« less

REPORT FOR COMMERCIAL GRADE NICKEL CHARACTERIZATION AND BENCHMARKING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2012-12-20

Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, has completed the collection, sample analysis, and review of analytical results to benchmark the concentrations of gross alpha-emitting radionuclides, gross beta-emitting radionuclides, and technetium-99 in commercial grade nickel. This report presents methods, change management, observations, and statistical analysis of materials procured from sellers representing nine countries on four continents. The data suggest there is a low probability of detecting alpha- and beta-emitting radionuclides in commercial nickel. Technetium-99 was not detected in any samples, thus suggesting it is not present in commercial nickel.

Itô-SDE MCMC method for Bayesian characterization of errors associated with data limitations in stochastic expansion methods for uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnst, M.; Abello Álvarez, B.; Ponthot, J.-P.; Boman, R.

2017-11-01

This paper is concerned with the characterization and the propagation of errors associated with data limitations in polynomial-chaos-based stochastic methods for uncertainty quantification. Such an issue can arise in uncertainty quantification when only a limited amount of data is available. When the available information does not suffice to accurately determine the probability distributions that must be assigned to the uncertain variables, the Bayesian method for assigning these probability distributions becomes attractive because it allows the stochastic model to account explicitly for insufficiency of the available information. In previous work, such applications of the Bayesian method had already been implemented by using the Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In this paper, we present an alternative implementation, which uses an alternative MCMC method built around an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE) that is ergodic for the Bayesian posterior. We draw together from the mathematics literature a number of formal properties of this Itô SDE that lend support to its use in the implementation of the Bayesian method, and we describe its discretization, including the choice of the free parameters, by using the implicit Euler method. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on a problem of uncertainty quantification in a complex nonlinear engineering application relevant to metal forming.

Convolutional neural network regression for short-axis left ventricle segmentation in cardiac cine MR sequences.

PubMed

Tan, Li Kuo; Liew, Yih Miin; Lim, Einly; McLaughlin, Robert A

2017-07-01

Automated left ventricular (LV) segmentation is crucial for efficient quantification of cardiac function and morphology to aid subsequent management of cardiac pathologies. In this paper, we parameterize the complete (all short axis slices and phases) LV segmentation task in terms of the radial distances between the LV centerpoint and the endo- and epicardial contours in polar space. We then utilize convolutional neural network regression to infer these parameters. Utilizing parameter regression, as opposed to conventional pixel classification, allows the network to inherently reflect domain-specific physical constraints. We have benchmarked our approach primarily against the publicly-available left ventricle segmentation challenge (LVSC) dataset, which consists of 100 training and 100 validation cardiac MRI cases representing a heterogeneous mix of cardiac pathologies and imaging parameters across multiple centers. Our approach attained a .77 Jaccard index, which is the highest published overall result in comparison to other automated algorithms. To test general applicability, we also evaluated against the Kaggle Second Annual Data Science Bowl, where the evaluation metric was the indirect clinical measures of LV volume rather than direct myocardial contours. Our approach attained a Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) of .0124, which would have ranked tenth in the original challenge. With this we demonstrate the effectiveness of convolutional neural network regression paired with domain-specific features in clinical segmentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, F.; Ramos, M. H.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Alfieri, L.; Bogner, K.; Mueller, A.; Salamon, P.

2015-03-01

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are 'toughest to beat' and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Model for spectral and chromatographic data

DOEpatents

Jarman, Kristin [Richland, WA; Willse, Alan [Richland, WA; Wahl, Karen [Richland, WA; Wahl, Jon [Richland, WA

2002-11-26

A method and apparatus using a spectral analysis technique are disclosed. In one form of the invention, probabilities are selected to characterize the presence (and in another form, also a quantification of a characteristic) of peaks in an indexed data set for samples that match a reference species, and other probabilities are selected for samples that do not match the reference species. An indexed data set is acquired for a sample, and a determination is made according to techniques exemplified herein as to whether the sample matches or does not match the reference species. When quantification of peak characteristics is undertaken, the model is appropriately expanded, and the analysis accounts for the characteristic model and data. Further techniques are provided to apply the methods and apparatuses to process control, cluster analysis, hypothesis testing, analysis of variance, and other procedures involving multiple comparisons of indexed data.

QUANTIFICATION OF NUCLEOLAR CHANNEL SYSTEMS: UNIFORM PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE UPPER ENDOMETRIAL CAVITY

PubMed Central

Szmyga, Michael J.; Rybak, Eli A.; Nejat, Edward J.; Banks, Erika H.; Whitney, Kathleen D.; Polotsky, Alex J.; Heller, Debra S.; Meier, U. Thomas

2014-01-01

Objective To determine the prevalence of nucleolar channel systems (NCSs) by uterine region applying continuous quantification. Design Prospective clinical study. Setting Tertiary care academic medical center. Patients 42 naturally cycling women who underwent hysterectomy for benign indications. Intervention NCS presence was quantified by a novel method in six uterine regions, fundus, left cornu, right cornu, anterior body, posterior body, and lower uterine segment (LUS), using indirect immunofluorescence. Main Outcome Measures Percent of endometrial epithelial cells (EECs) with NCSs per uterine region. Results NCS quantification was observer-independent (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.96) and its intra-sample variability low (coefficient of variability [CV] = 0.06). 11/42 hysterectomy specimens were midluteal, 10 of which were analyzable with 9 containing over 5% EECs with NCSs in at least one region. The percent of EECs with NCSs varied significantly between the lower uterine segment (6.1%; IQR = 3.0-9.9) and the upper five regions (16.9%; IQR = 12.7-23.4) with fewer NCSs in the basal layer of the endometrium (17% +/−6%) versus the middle (46% +/−9%) and luminal layers (38% +/−9%) of all six regions). Conclusions NCS quantification during the midluteal phase demonstrates uniform presence throughout the endometrial cavity, excluding the LUS, with a preference for the functional, luminal layers. Our quantitative NCS evaluation provides a benchmark for future studies and further supports NCS presence as a potential marker for the window of implantation. PMID:23137760

Comparing probabilistic microbial risk assessments for drinking water against daily rather than annualised infection probability targets.

PubMed

Signor, R S; Ashbolt, N J

2009-12-01

Some national drinking water guidelines provide guidance on how to define 'safe' drinking water. Regarding microbial water quality, a common position is that the chance of an individual becoming infected by some reference waterborne pathogen (e.g. Cryptsporidium) present in the drinking water should < 10(-4) in any year. However the instantaneous levels of risk to a water consumer vary over the course of a year, and waterborne disease outbreaks have been associated with shorter-duration periods of heightened risk. Performing probabilistic microbial risk assessments is becoming commonplace to capture the impacts of temporal variability on overall infection risk levels. A case is presented here for adoption of a shorter-duration reference period (i.e. daily) infection probability target over which to assess, report and benchmark such risks. A daily infection probability benchmark may provide added incentive and guidance for exercising control over short-term adverse risk fluctuation events and their causes. Management planning could involve outlining measures so that the daily target is met under a variety of pre-identified event scenarios. Other benefits of a daily target could include providing a platform for managers to design and assess management initiatives, as well as simplifying the technical components of the risk assessment process.

Most Probable Number Rapid Viability PCR Method to Detect Viable Spores of Bacillus anthracis in Swab Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letant, S E; Kane, S R; Murphy, G A

2008-05-30

This note presents a comparison of Most-Probable-Number Rapid Viability (MPN-RV) PCR and traditional culture methods for the quantification of Bacillus anthracis Sterne spores in macrofoam swabs generated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for a multi-center validation study aimed at testing environmental swab processing methods for recovery, detection, and quantification of viable B. anthracis spores from surfaces. Results show that spore numbers provided by the MPN RV-PCR method were in statistical agreement with the CDC conventional culture method for all three levels of spores tested (10{sup 4}, 10{sup 2}, and 10 spores) even in the presence ofmore » dirt. In addition to detecting low levels of spores in environmental conditions, the MPN RV-PCR method is specific, and compatible with automated high-throughput sample processing and analysis protocols.« less

How does audit and feedback influence intentions of health professionals to improve practice? A laboratory experiment and field study in cardiac rehabilitation.

PubMed

Gude, Wouter T; van Engen-Verheul, Mariëtte M; van der Veer, Sabine N; de Keizer, Nicolette F; Peek, Niels

2017-04-01

To identify factors that influence the intentions of health professionals to improve their practice when confronted with clinical performance feedback, which is an essential first step in the audit and feedback mechanism. We conducted a theory-driven laboratory experiment with 41 individual professionals, and a field study in 18 centres in the context of a cluster-randomised trial of electronic audit and feedback in cardiac rehabilitation. Feedback reports were provided through a web-based application, and included performance scores and benchmark comparisons (high, intermediate or low performance) for a set of process and outcome indicators. From each report participants selected indicators for improvement into their action plan. Our unit of observation was an indicator presented in a feedback report (selected yes/no); we considered selecting an indicator to reflect an intention to improve. We analysed 767 observations in the laboratory experiment and 614 in the field study, respectively. Each 10% decrease in performance score increased the probability of an indicator being selected by 54% (OR, 1.54; 95% CI 1.29% to 1.83%) in the laboratory experiment, and 25% (OR, 1.25; 95% CI 1.13% to 1.39%) in the field study. Also, performance being benchmarked as low and intermediate increased this probability in laboratory settings. Still, participants ignored the benchmarks in 34% (laboratory experiment) and 48% (field study) of their selections. When confronted with clinical performance feedback, performance scores and benchmark comparisons influenced health professionals' intentions to improve practice. However, there was substantial variation in these intentions, because professionals disagreed with benchmarks, deemed improvement unfeasible or did not consider the indicator an essential aspect of care quality. These phenomena impede intentions to improve practice, and are thus likely to dilute the effects of audit and feedback interventions. NTR3251, pre-results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for the LAMMPS Molecular Dynamics Simulation Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Picard, Richard Roy; Bhat, Kabekode Ghanasham

2017-07-18

We examine sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for molecular dynamics simulation. Extreme (large or small) output values for the LAMMPS code often occur at the boundaries of input regions, and uncertainties in those boundary values are overlooked by common SA methods. Similarly, input values for which code outputs are consistent with calibration data can also occur near boundaries. Upon applying approaches in the literature for imprecise probabilities (IPs), much more realistic results are obtained than for the complacent application of standard SA and code calibration.

Benchmarking B-Cell Epitope Prediction with Quantitative Dose-Response Data on Antipeptide Antibodies: Towards Novel Pharmaceutical Product Development

PubMed Central

Caoili, Salvador Eugenio C.

2014-01-01

B-cell epitope prediction can enable novel pharmaceutical product development. However, a mechanistically framed consensus has yet to emerge on benchmarking such prediction, thus presenting an opportunity to establish standards of practice that circumvent epistemic inconsistencies of casting the epitope prediction task as a binary-classification problem. As an alternative to conventional dichotomous qualitative benchmark data, quantitative dose-response data on antibody-mediated biological effects are more meaningful from an information-theoretic perspective in the sense that such effects may be expressed as probabilities (e.g., of functional inhibition by antibody) for which the Shannon information entropy (SIE) can be evaluated as a measure of informativeness. Accordingly, half-maximal biological effects (e.g., at median inhibitory concentrations of antibody) correspond to maximally informative data while undetectable and maximal biological effects correspond to minimally informative data. This applies to benchmarking B-cell epitope prediction for the design of peptide-based immunogens that elicit antipeptide antibodies with functionally relevant cross-reactivity. Presently, the Immune Epitope Database (IEDB) contains relatively few quantitative dose-response data on such cross-reactivity. Only a small fraction of these IEDB data is maximally informative, and many more of them are minimally informative (i.e., with zero SIE). Nevertheless, the numerous qualitative data in IEDB suggest how to overcome the paucity of informative benchmark data. PMID:24949474

Assigning and Combining Probabilities in Single-Case Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manolov, Rumen; Solanas, Antonio

2012-01-01

There is currently a considerable diversity of quantitative measures available for summarizing the results in single-case studies. Given that the interpretation of some of them is difficult due to the lack of established benchmarks, the current article proposes an approach for obtaining further numerical evidence on the importance of the results,…

Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements

DOE PAGES

Jeon, Soyoung; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F.

2016-02-16

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) or the risk ratio (RR) and associated confidence intervals. Many such analyses use climate model output to characterize extreme event behavior with and without anthropogenic influence. However, such climate models may have biases in their representation of extreme events. To account for discrepancies in the probabilities of extreme events between observational datasets and model datasets, we demonstrate an appropriate rescaling of the model output basedmore » on the quantiles of the datasets to estimate an adjusted risk ratio. Our methodology accounts for various components of uncertainty in estimation of the risk ratio. In particular, we present an approach to construct a one-sided confidence interval on the lower bound of the risk ratio when the estimated risk ratio is infinity. We demonstrate the methodology using the summer 2011 central US heatwave and output from the Community Earth System Model. In this example, we find that the lower bound of the risk ratio is relatively insensitive to the magnitude and probability of the actual event.« less

Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dell'Oca, Aronne; Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto

2017-12-01

We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis, GSA, of hydrological and Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of uncertain parameters on main features of the probability density function, pdf, of a target model output, y. These include the expected value of y, the spread around the mean and the degree of symmetry and tailedness of the pdf of y. Since reliable assessment of higher-order statistical moments can be computationally demanding, we couple our GSA approach with a surrogate model, approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. Here, we consider the generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE), other model reduction techniques being fully compatible with our theoretical framework. We demonstrate our approach through three test cases, including an analytical benchmark, a simplified scenario mimicking pumping in a coastal aquifer and a laboratory-scale conservative transport experiment. Our results allow ascertaining which parameters can impact some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. We also investigate the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through a gPCE. Our results indicate that the construction of a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy might be required depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The approach is fully compatible with (and can assist the development of) analysis techniques employed in the context of reduction of model complexity, model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

PubMed

She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

2015-01-01

Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

Summary of BISON Development and Validation Activities - NEAMS FY16 Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, R. L.; Pastore, G.; Gamble, K. A.

This summary report contains an overview of work performed under the work package en- titled “FY2016 NEAMS INL-Engineering Scale Fuel Performance (BISON)” A first chapter identifies the specific FY-16 milestones, providing a basic description of the associated work and references to related detailed documentation. Where applicable, a representative technical result is provided. A second chapter summarizes major additional accomplishments, which in- clude: 1) publication of a journal article on solution verification and validation of BISON for LWR fuel, 2) publication of a journal article on 3D Missing Pellet Surface (MPS) analysis of BWR fuel, 3) use of BISON to designmore » a unique 3D MPS validation experiment for future in- stallation in the Halden research reactor, 4) participation in an OECD benchmark on Pellet Clad Mechanical Interaction (PCMI), 5) participation in an OECD benchmark on Reactivity Insertion Accident (RIA) analysis, 6) participation in an OECD activity on uncertainity quantification and sensitivity analysis in nuclear fuel modeling and 7) major improvements to BISON’s fission gas behavior models. A final chapter outlines FY-17 future work.« less

How to Make Data a Blessing to Parametric Uncertainty Quantification and Reduction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Shi, X.; Curtis, G. P.; Kohler, M.; Wu, J.

2013-12-01

In a Bayesian point of view, probability of model parameters and predictions are conditioned on data used for parameter inference and prediction analysis. It is critical to use appropriate data for quantifying parametric uncertainty and its propagation to model predictions. However, data are always limited and imperfect. When a dataset cannot properly constrain model parameters, it may lead to inaccurate uncertainty quantification. While in this case data appears to be a curse to uncertainty quantification, a comprehensive modeling analysis may help understand the cause and characteristics of parametric uncertainty and thus turns data into a blessing. In this study, we illustrate impacts of data on uncertainty quantification and reduction using an example of surface complexation model (SCM) developed to simulate uranyl (U(VI)) adsorption. The model includes two adsorption sites, referred to as strong and weak sites. The amount of uranium adsorption on these sites determines both the mean arrival time and the long tail of the breakthrough curves. There is one reaction on the weak site but two reactions on the strong site. The unknown parameters include fractions of the total surface site density of the two sites and surface complex formation constants of the three reactions. A total of seven experiments were conducted with different geochemical conditions to estimate these parameters. The experiments with low initial concentration of U(VI) result in a large amount of parametric uncertainty. A modeling analysis shows that it is because the experiments cannot distinguish the relative adsorption affinity of the strong and weak sites on uranium adsorption. Therefore, the experiments with high initial concentration of U(VI) are needed, because in the experiments the strong site is nearly saturated and the weak site can be determined. The experiments with high initial concentration of U(VI) are a blessing to uncertainty quantification, and the experiments with low initial concentration help modelers turn a curse into a blessing. The data impacts on uncertainty quantification and reduction are quantified using probability density functions of model parameters obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation using the DREAM algorithm. This study provides insights to model calibration, uncertainty quantification, experiment design, and data collection in groundwater reactive transport modeling and other environmental modeling.

QUANTIFICATION OF FLUOROTELOMER-BASED CHEMICALS IN MAMMALIAN MATRICES BY MONITORING PERFLUOROALKYL CHAIN FRAGMENTS WITH GC/MS

EPA Science Inventory

Perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs), namely perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), have been identified as persistent, bioaccurnulative and potentially toxic compounds. The structural analog, 8-2 fluorotelomer alcohol (8-2 FTOH) is considered the probable ...

Goal-Oriented Probability Density Function Methods for Uncertainty Quantification

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-11

approximations or data-driven approaches. We investigated the accuracy of analytical tech- niques based Kubo -Van Kampen operator cumulant expansions for...analytical techniques based Kubo -Van Kampen operator cumulant expansions for Langevin equations driven by fractional Brownian motion and other noises

Benchmarking Attosecond Physics with Atomic Hydrogen

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-25

theoretical simulations are available in this regime. We provided accurate reference data on the photoionization yield and the CEP-dependent...this difficulty. This experiment claimed to show that, contrary to current understanding, the photoionization of an atomic electron is not an... photoion yield and transferrable intensity calibration. The dependence of photoionization probability on laser intensity is one of the most

LFQProfiler and RNP(xl): Open-Source Tools for Label-Free Quantification and Protein-RNA Cross-Linking Integrated into Proteome Discoverer.

PubMed

Veit, Johannes; Sachsenberg, Timo; Chernev, Aleksandar; Aicheler, Fabian; Urlaub, Henning; Kohlbacher, Oliver

2016-09-02

Modern mass spectrometry setups used in today's proteomics studies generate vast amounts of raw data, calling for highly efficient data processing and analysis tools. Software for analyzing these data is either monolithic (easy to use, but sometimes too rigid) or workflow-driven (easy to customize, but sometimes complex). Thermo Proteome Discoverer (PD) is a powerful software for workflow-driven data analysis in proteomics which, in our eyes, achieves a good trade-off between flexibility and usability. Here, we present two open-source plugins for PD providing additional functionality: LFQProfiler for label-free quantification of peptides and proteins, and RNP(xl) for UV-induced peptide-RNA cross-linking data analysis. LFQProfiler interacts with existing PD nodes for peptide identification and validation and takes care of the entire quantitative part of the workflow. We show that it performs at least on par with other state-of-the-art software solutions for label-free quantification in a recently published benchmark ( Ramus, C.; J. Proteomics 2016 , 132 , 51 - 62 ). The second workflow, RNP(xl), represents the first software solution to date for identification of peptide-RNA cross-links including automatic localization of the cross-links at amino acid resolution and localization scoring. It comes with a customized integrated cross-link fragment spectrum viewer for convenient manual inspection and validation of the results.

Inference and quantification of peptidoforms in large sample cohorts by SWATH-MS

PubMed Central

Röst, Hannes L; Ludwig, Christina; Buil, Alfonso; Bensimon, Ariel; Soste, Martin; Spector, Tim D; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil T; Collins, Ben C; Malmström, Lars; Aebersold, Ruedi

2017-01-01

The consistent detection and quantification of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) across sample cohorts is an essential prerequisite for the functional analysis of biological processes. Data-independent acquisition (DIA), a bottom-up mass spectrometry based proteomic strategy, exemplified by SWATH-MS, provides complete precursor and fragment ion information of a sample and thus, in principle, the information to identify peptidoforms, the modified variants of a peptide. However, due to the convoluted structure of DIA data sets the confident and systematic identification and quantification of peptidoforms has remained challenging. Here we present IPF (Inference of PeptidoForms), a fully automated algorithm that uses spectral libraries to query, validate and quantify peptidoforms in DIA data sets. The method was developed on data acquired by SWATH-MS and benchmarked using a synthetic phosphopeptide reference data set and phosphopeptide-enriched samples. The data indicate that IPF reduced false site-localization by more than 7-fold in comparison to previous approaches, while recovering 85.4% of the true signals. IPF was applied to detect and quantify peptidoforms carrying ten different types of PTMs in DIA data acquired from more than 200 samples of undepleted blood plasma of a human twin cohort. The data approportioned, for the first time, the contribution of heritable, environmental and longitudinal effects on the observed quantitative variability of specific modifications in blood plasma of a human population. PMID:28604659

In-depth evaluation of software tools for data-independent acquisition based label-free quantification.

PubMed

Kuharev, Jörg; Navarro, Pedro; Distler, Ute; Jahn, Olaf; Tenzer, Stefan

2015-09-01

Label-free quantification (LFQ) based on data-independent acquisition workflows currently experiences increasing popularity. Several software tools have been recently published or are commercially available. The present study focuses on the evaluation of three different software packages (Progenesis, synapter, and ISOQuant) supporting ion mobility enhanced data-independent acquisition data. In order to benchmark the LFQ performance of the different tools, we generated two hybrid proteome samples of defined quantitative composition containing tryptically digested proteomes of three different species (mouse, yeast, Escherichia coli). This model dataset simulates complex biological samples containing large numbers of both unregulated (background) proteins as well as up- and downregulated proteins with exactly known ratios between samples. We determined the number and dynamic range of quantifiable proteins and analyzed the influence of applied algorithms (retention time alignment, clustering, normalization, etc.) on quantification results. Analysis of technical reproducibility revealed median coefficients of variation of reported protein abundances below 5% for MS(E) data for Progenesis and ISOQuant. Regarding accuracy of LFQ, evaluation with synapter and ISOQuant yielded superior results compared to Progenesis. In addition, we discuss reporting formats and user friendliness of the software packages. The data generated in this study have been deposited to the ProteomeXchange Consortium with identifier PXD001240 (http://proteomecentral.proteomexchange.org/dataset/PXD001240). © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Comparison of the Mortality Probability Admission Model III, National Quality Forum, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV hospital mortality models: implications for national benchmarking*.

PubMed

Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E

2014-03-01

To examine the accuracy of the original Mortality Probability Admission Model III, ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum modification of Mortality Probability Admission Model III, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa models for comparing observed and risk-adjusted hospital mortality predictions. Retrospective paired analyses of day 1 hospital mortality predictions using three prognostic models. Fifty-five ICUs at 38 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to December 2012. Among 174,001 intensive care admissions, 109,926 met model inclusion criteria and 55,304 had data for mortality prediction using all three models. None. We compared patient exclusions and the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy for each model. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa excluded 10.7% of all patients, ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum 20.1%, and Mortality Probability Admission Model III 24.1%. Discrimination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was superior with area under receiver operating curve (0.88) compared with Mortality Probability Admission Model III (0.81) and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum (0.80). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was better calibrated (lowest Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). The accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was superior (adjusted Brier score = 31.0%) to that for Mortality Probability Admission Model III (16.1%) and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum (17.8%). Compared with observed mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa overpredicted mortality by 1.5% and Mortality Probability Admission Model III by 3.1%; ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum underpredicted mortality by 1.2%. Calibration curves showed that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation performed well over the entire risk range, unlike the Mortality Probability Admission Model and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum models. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa had better accuracy within patient subgroups and for specific admission diagnoses. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa offered the best discrimination and calibration on a large common dataset and excluded fewer patients than Mortality Probability Admission Model III or ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum. The choice of ICU performance benchmarks should be based on a comparison of model accuracy using data for identical patients.

Forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using multilevel Monte Carlo algorithms for an elliptic non-local equation

DOE PAGES

Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody J. H.; Zhou, Yan

2016-01-01

Our paper considers uncertainty quantification for an elliptic nonlocal equation. In particular, it is assumed that the parameters which define the kernel in the nonlocal operator are uncertain and a priori distributed according to a probability measure. It is shown that the induced probability measure on some quantities of interest arising from functionals of the solution to the equation with random inputs is well-defined,s as is the posterior distribution on parameters given observations. As the elliptic nonlocal equation cannot be solved approximate posteriors are constructed. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multilevel sequential Monte Carlo (MLSMC) sampling algorithms are usedmore » for a priori and a posteriori estimation, respectively, of quantities of interest. Furthermore, these algorithms reduce the amount of work to estimate posterior expectations, for a given level of error, relative to Monte Carlo and i.i.d. sampling from the posterior at a given level of approximation of the solution of the elliptic nonlocal equation.« less

Forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using multilevel Monte Carlo algorithms for an elliptic non-local equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody J. H.; Zhou, Yan

Our paper considers uncertainty quantification for an elliptic nonlocal equation. In particular, it is assumed that the parameters which define the kernel in the nonlocal operator are uncertain and a priori distributed according to a probability measure. It is shown that the induced probability measure on some quantities of interest arising from functionals of the solution to the equation with random inputs is well-defined,s as is the posterior distribution on parameters given observations. As the elliptic nonlocal equation cannot be solved approximate posteriors are constructed. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multilevel sequential Monte Carlo (MLSMC) sampling algorithms are usedmore » for a priori and a posteriori estimation, respectively, of quantities of interest. Furthermore, these algorithms reduce the amount of work to estimate posterior expectations, for a given level of error, relative to Monte Carlo and i.i.d. sampling from the posterior at a given level of approximation of the solution of the elliptic nonlocal equation.« less

MultiMap: A Tool to Automatically Extract and Analyse Spatial Microscopic Data From Large Stacks of Confocal Microscopy Images

PubMed Central

Varando, Gherardo; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; Muñoz, Alberto; Kastanauskaite, Asta; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; DeFelipe, Javier

2018-01-01

The development of 3D visualization and reconstruction methods to analyse microscopic structures at different levels of resolutions is of great importance to define brain microorganization and connectivity. MultiMap is a new tool that allows the visualization, 3D segmentation and quantification of fluorescent structures selectively in the neuropil from large stacks of confocal microscopy images. The major contribution of this tool is the posibility to easily navigate and create regions of interest of any shape and size within a large brain area that will be automatically 3D segmented and quantified to determine the density of puncta in the neuropil. As a proof of concept, we focused on the analysis of glutamatergic and GABAergic presynaptic axon terminals in the mouse hippocampal region to demonstrate its use as a tool to provide putative excitatory and inhibitory synaptic maps. The segmentation and quantification method has been validated over expert labeled images of the mouse hippocampus and over two benchmark datasets, obtaining comparable results to the expert detections. PMID:29875639

MultiMap: A Tool to Automatically Extract and Analyse Spatial Microscopic Data From Large Stacks of Confocal Microscopy Images.

PubMed

Varando, Gherardo; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; Muñoz, Alberto; Kastanauskaite, Asta; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; DeFelipe, Javier

2018-01-01

The development of 3D visualization and reconstruction methods to analyse microscopic structures at different levels of resolutions is of great importance to define brain microorganization and connectivity. MultiMap is a new tool that allows the visualization, 3D segmentation and quantification of fluorescent structures selectively in the neuropil from large stacks of confocal microscopy images. The major contribution of this tool is the posibility to easily navigate and create regions of interest of any shape and size within a large brain area that will be automatically 3D segmented and quantified to determine the density of puncta in the neuropil. As a proof of concept, we focused on the analysis of glutamatergic and GABAergic presynaptic axon terminals in the mouse hippocampal region to demonstrate its use as a tool to provide putative excitatory and inhibitory synaptic maps. The segmentation and quantification method has been validated over expert labeled images of the mouse hippocampus and over two benchmark datasets, obtaining comparable results to the expert detections.

Exact calculation of loop formation probability identifies folding motifs in RNA secondary structures

PubMed Central

Sloma, Michael F.; Mathews, David H.

2016-01-01

RNA secondary structure prediction is widely used to analyze RNA sequences. In an RNA partition function calculation, free energy nearest neighbor parameters are used in a dynamic programming algorithm to estimate statistical properties of the secondary structure ensemble. Previously, partition functions have largely been used to estimate the probability that a given pair of nucleotides form a base pair, the conditional stacking probability, the accessibility to binding of a continuous stretch of nucleotides, or a representative sample of RNA structures. Here it is demonstrated that an RNA partition function can also be used to calculate the exact probability of formation of hairpin loops, internal loops, bulge loops, or multibranch loops at a given position. This calculation can also be used to estimate the probability of formation of specific helices. Benchmarking on a set of RNA sequences with known secondary structures indicated that loops that were calculated to be more probable were more likely to be present in the known structure than less probable loops. Furthermore, highly probable loops are more likely to be in the known structure than the set of loops predicted in the lowest free energy structures. PMID:27852924

Monte Carlo Perturbation Theory Estimates of Sensitivities to System Dimensions

DOE PAGES

Burke, Timothy P.; Kiedrowski, Brian C.

2017-12-11

Here, Monte Carlo methods are developed using adjoint-based perturbation theory and the differential operator method to compute the sensitivities of the k-eigenvalue, linear functions of the flux (reaction rates), and bilinear functions of the forward and adjoint flux (kinetics parameters) to system dimensions for uniform expansions or contractions. The calculation of sensitivities to system dimensions requires computing scattering and fission sources at material interfaces using collisions occurring at the interface—which is a set of events with infinitesimal probability. Kernel density estimators are used to estimate the source at interfaces using collisions occurring near the interface. The methods for computing sensitivitiesmore » of linear and bilinear ratios are derived using the differential operator method and adjoint-based perturbation theory and are shown to be equivalent to methods previously developed using a collision history–based approach. The methods for determining sensitivities to system dimensions are tested on a series of fast, intermediate, and thermal critical benchmarks as well as a pressurized water reactor benchmark problem with iterated fission probability used for adjoint-weighting. The estimators are shown to agree within 5% and 3σ of reference solutions obtained using direct perturbations with central differences for the majority of test problems.« less

Disaster metrics: quantitative benchmarking of hospital surge capacity in trauma-related multiple casualty events.

PubMed

Bayram, Jamil D; Zuabi, Shawki; Subbarao, Italo

2011-06-01

Hospital surge capacity in multiple casualty events (MCE) is the core of hospital medical response, and an integral part of the total medical capacity of the community affected. To date, however, there has been no consensus regarding the definition or quantification of hospital surge capacity. The first objective of this study was to quantitatively benchmark the various components of hospital surge capacity pertaining to the care of critically and moderately injured patients in trauma-related MCE. The second objective was to illustrate the applications of those quantitative parameters in local, regional, national, and international disaster planning; in the distribution of patients to various hospitals by prehospital medical services; and in the decision-making process for ambulance diversion. A 2-step approach was adopted in the methodology of this study. First, an extensive literature search was performed, followed by mathematical modeling. Quantitative studies on hospital surge capacity for trauma injuries were used as the framework for our model. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization triage categories (T1-T4) were used in the modeling process for simplicity purposes. Hospital Acute Care Surge Capacity (HACSC) was defined as the maximum number of critical (T1) and moderate (T2) casualties a hospital can adequately care for per hour, after recruiting all possible additional medical assets. HACSC was modeled to be equal to the number of emergency department beds (#EDB), divided by the emergency department time (EDT); HACSC = #EDB/EDT. In trauma-related MCE, the EDT was quantitatively benchmarked to be 2.5 (hours). Because most of the critical and moderate casualties arrive at hospitals within a 6-hour period requiring admission (by definition), the hospital bed surge capacity must match the HACSC at 6 hours to ensure coordinated care, and it was mathematically benchmarked to be 18% of the staffed hospital bed capacity. Defining and quantitatively benchmarking the different components of hospital surge capacity is vital to hospital preparedness in MCE. Prospective studies of our mathematical model are needed to verify its applicability, generalizability, and validity.

MOLD SPECIFIC QUANTITATIVE PCR: THE EMERGING STANDARD IN MOLD ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Today I will talk about the use of quantitative or Real time PCR for the standardized identification and quantification of molds. There are probably at least 100,000 species of molds or fungi. But there are actually about 100 typically found indoors. Some pose a threat to human...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curry, J J; Gallagher, D W; Modarres, M

Appendices are presented concerning isolation condenser makeup; vapor suppression system; station air system; reactor building closed cooling water system; turbine building secondary closed water system; service water system; emergency service water system; fire protection system; emergency ac power; dc power system; event probability estimation; methodology of accident sequence quantification; and assignment of dominant sequences to release categories.

Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, H; Gorson, R O; Lassen, M

1983-05-01

Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life.

Measurement of absolute gamma emission probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumithrarachchi, Chandana S.; Rengan, Krish; Griffin, Henry C.

2003-06-01

The energies and emission probabilities (intensities) of gamma-rays emitted in radioactive decays of particular nuclides are the most important characteristics by which to quantify mixtures of radionuclides. Often, quantification is limited by uncertainties in measured intensities. A technique was developed to reduce these uncertainties. The method involves obtaining a pure sample of a nuclide using radiochemical techniques, and using appropriate fractions for beta and gamma measurements. The beta emission rates were measured using a liquid scintillation counter, and the gamma emission rates were measured with a high-purity germanium detector. Results were combined to obtain absolute gamma emission probabilities. All sources of uncertainties greater than 0.1% were examined. The method was tested with 38Cl and 88Rb.

Phase definition to assess synchronization quality of nonlinear oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, Leandro; Torres, Leonardo A. B.; Aguirre, Luis A.

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a phase definition, named the vector field phase, which can be defined for systems with arbitrary finite dimension and is a monotonically increasing function of time. The proposed definition can properly quantify the dynamics in the flow direction, often associated with the null Lyapunov exponent. Numerical examples that use benchmark periodic and chaotic oscillators are discussed to illustrate some of the main features of the definition, which are that (i) phase information can be obtained either from the vector field or from a time series, (ii) it permits not only detection of phase synchronization but also quantification of it, and (iii) it can be used in the phase synchronization of very different oscillators.

Phase definition to assess synchronization quality of nonlinear oscillators.

PubMed

Freitas, Leandro; Torres, Leonardo A B; Aguirre, Luis A

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a phase definition, named the vector field phase, which can be defined for systems with arbitrary finite dimension and is a monotonically increasing function of time. The proposed definition can properly quantify the dynamics in the flow direction, often associated with the null Lyapunov exponent. Numerical examples that use benchmark periodic and chaotic oscillators are discussed to illustrate some of the main features of the definition, which are that (i) phase information can be obtained either from the vector field or from a time series, (ii) it permits not only detection of phase synchronization but also quantification of it, and (iii) it can be used in the phase synchronization of very different oscillators.

Non-parametric correlative uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis: Application to a Langmuir bimolecular adsorption model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jinchao; Lansford, Joshua; Mironenko, Alexander; Pourkargar, Davood Babaei; Vlachos, Dionisios G.; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

2018-03-01

We propose non-parametric methods for both local and global sensitivity analysis of chemical reaction models with correlated parameter dependencies. The developed mathematical and statistical tools are applied to a benchmark Langmuir competitive adsorption model on a close packed platinum surface, whose parameters, estimated from quantum-scale computations, are correlated and are limited in size (small data). The proposed mathematical methodology employs gradient-based methods to compute sensitivity indices. We observe that ranking influential parameters depends critically on whether or not correlations between parameters are taken into account. The impact of uncertainty in the correlation and the necessity of the proposed non-parametric perspective are demonstrated.

Aerosol-type retrieval and uncertainty quantification from OMI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauppi, Anu; Kolmonen, Pekka; Laine, Marko; Tamminen, Johanna

2017-11-01

We discuss uncertainty quantification for aerosol-type selection in satellite-based atmospheric aerosol retrieval. The retrieval procedure uses precalculated aerosol microphysical models stored in look-up tables (LUTs) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral reflectance measurements to solve the aerosol characteristics. The forward model approximations cause systematic differences between the modelled and observed reflectance. Acknowledging this model discrepancy as a source of uncertainty allows us to produce more realistic uncertainty estimates and assists the selection of the most appropriate LUTs for each individual retrieval.This paper focuses on the aerosol microphysical model selection and characterisation of uncertainty in the retrieved aerosol type and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The concept of model evidence is used as a tool for model comparison. The method is based on Bayesian inference approach, in which all uncertainties are described as a posterior probability distribution. When there is no single best-matching aerosol microphysical model, we use a statistical technique based on Bayesian model averaging to combine AOD posterior probability densities of the best-fitting models to obtain an averaged AOD estimate. We also determine the shared evidence of the best-matching models of a certain main aerosol type in order to quantify how plausible it is that it represents the underlying atmospheric aerosol conditions.The developed method is applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements using a multiwavelength approach for retrieving the aerosol type and AOD estimate with uncertainty quantification for cloud-free over-land pixels. Several larger pixel set areas were studied in order to investigate the robustness of the developed method. We evaluated the retrieved AOD by comparison with ground-based measurements at example sites. We found that the uncertainty of AOD expressed by posterior probability distribution reflects the difficulty in model selection. The posterior probability distribution can provide a comprehensive characterisation of the uncertainty in this kind of problem for aerosol-type selection. As a result, the proposed method can account for the model error and also include the model selection uncertainty in the total uncertainty budget.

Psychomotor developmental delay and epilepsy in an offspring of father-daughter incest: quantification of the causality probability.

PubMed

Schmidtke, Jörg; Krawczak, Michael

2010-09-01

A 20-year-old offspring of father-daughter incest, who has been suffering from serious psychomotoric health problems since early childhood, is seeking financial compensation under the German federal act of victim indemnification. For her appeal to be valid, the probability X that the incest was causal for her disorder must exceed 50%. Based upon the available medical records, we show that this is indeed the case and that X is even likely to exceed 65%, thereby rendering the victim's claim scientifically and legally justified.

Quantification of chaotic strength and mixing in a micro fluidic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ho Jun; Beskok, Ali

2007-11-01

Comparative studies of five different techniques commonly employed to identify the chaotic strength and mixing efficiency in micro fluidic systems are presented to demonstrate the competitive advantages and shortcomings of each method. The 'chaotic electroosmotic stirrer' of Qian and Bau (2002 Anal. Chem. 74 3616-25) is utilized as the benchmark case due to its well-defined flow kinematics. Lagrangian particle tracking methods are utilized to study particle dispersion in the conceptual device using spectral element and fourth-order Runge-Kutta discretizations in space and time, respectively. Stirring efficiency is predicted using the stirring index based on the box counting method, and Poincaré sections are utilized to identify the chaotic and regular regions under various actuation conditions. Finite time Lyapunov exponents are calculated to quantify the chaotic strength, while the probability density function of the stretching field is utilized as an alternative method to demonstrate the statistical analysis of chaotic and partially chaotic cases. Mixing index inverse, based on the standard deviation of scalar species distribution, is utilized as a metric to quantify the mixing efficiency. Series of numerical simulations are performed by varying the Peclet number (Pe) at fixed kinematic conditions. The mixing time (tm) is characterized as a function of the Pe number, and tm ~ ln(Pe) scaling is demonstrated for fully chaotic cases, while tm ~ Peα scaling with α ≈ 0.33 and α = 0.5 are observed for partially chaotic and regular cases, respectively. Employing the aforementioned techniques, optimum kinematic conditions and the actuation frequency of the stirrer that result in the highest mixing/stirring efficiency are identified.

SPACE PROPULSION SYSTEM PHASED-MISSION PROBABILITY ANALYSIS USING CONVENTIONAL PRA METHODS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; James Knudsen

As part of a series of papers on the topic of advance probabilistic methods, a benchmark phased-mission problem has been suggested. This problem consists of modeling a space mission using an ion propulsion system, where the mission consists of seven mission phases. The mission requires that the propulsion operate for several phases, where the configuration changes as a function of phase. The ion propulsion system itself consists of five thruster assemblies and a single propellant supply, where each thruster assembly has one propulsion power unit and two ion engines. In this paper, we evaluate the probability of mission failure usingmore » the conventional methodology of event tree/fault tree analysis. The event tree and fault trees are developed and analyzed using Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE). While the benchmark problem is nominally a "dynamic" problem, in our analysis the mission phases are modeled in a single event tree to show the progression from one phase to the next. The propulsion system is modeled in fault trees to account for the operation; or in this case, the failure of the system. Specifically, the propulsion system is decomposed into each of the five thruster assemblies and fed into the appropriate N-out-of-M gate to evaluate mission failure. A separate fault tree for the propulsion system is developed to account for the different success criteria of each mission phase. Common-cause failure modeling is treated using traditional (i.e., parametrically) methods. As part of this paper, we discuss the overall results in addition to the positive and negative aspects of modeling dynamic situations with non-dynamic modeling techniques. One insight from the use of this conventional method for analyzing the benchmark problem is that it requires significant manual manipulation to the fault trees and how they are linked into the event tree. The conventional method also requires editing the resultant cut sets to obtain the correct results. While conventional methods may be used to evaluate a dynamic system like that in the benchmark, the level of effort required may preclude its use on real-world problems.« less

Has Metal-On-Metal Resurfacing Been a Cost-Effective Intervention for Health Care Providers?-A Registry Based Study.

PubMed

Pulikottil-Jacob, Ruth; Connock, Martin; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Mistry, Hema; Grove, Amy; Freeman, Karoline; Costa, Matthew; Sutcliffe, Paul; Clarke, Aileen

2016-01-01

Total hip replacement for end stage arthritis of the hip is currently the most common elective surgical procedure. In 2007 about 7.5% of UK implants were metal-on-metal joint resurfacing (MoM RS) procedures. Due to poor revision performance and concerns about metal debris, the use of RS had declined by 2012 to about a 1% share of UK hip procedures. This study estimated the lifetime cost-effectiveness of metal-on-metal resurfacing (RS) procedures versus commonly employed total hip replacement (THR) methods. We performed a cost-utility analysis using a well-established multi-state semi-Markov model from an NHS and personal and social services perspective. We used individual patient data (IPD) from the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England and Wales on RS and THR surgery for osteoarthritis recorded from April 2003 to December 2012. We used flexible parametric modelling of NJR RS data to guide identification of patient subgroups and RS devices which delivered revision rates within the NICE 5% revision rate benchmark at 10 years. RS procedures overall have an estimated revision rate of 13% at 10 years, compared to <4% for most THR devices. New NICE guidance now recommends a revision rate benchmark of <5% at 10 years. 60% of RS implants in men and 2% in women were predicted to be within the revision benchmark. RS devices satisfying the 5% benchmark were unlikely to be cost-effective compared to THR at a standard UK willingness to pay of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. However, the probability of cost effectiveness was sensitive to small changes in the costs of devices or in quality of life or revision rate estimates. Our results imply that in most cases RS has not been a cost-effective resource and should probably not be adopted by decision makers concerned with the cost effectiveness of hip replacement, or by patients concerned about the likelihood of revision, regardless of patient age or gender.

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

Polynomial chaos representation of databases on manifolds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soize, C., E-mail: christian.soize@univ-paris-est.fr; Ghanem, R., E-mail: ghanem@usc.edu

2017-04-15

Characterizing the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) of a vector-valued random variable with probability distribution concentrated on a manifold is a relevant problem in data-driven settings. The probability distribution of such random vectors is multimodal in general, leading to potentially very slow convergence of the PCE. In this paper, we build on a recent development for estimating and sampling from probabilities concentrated on a diffusion manifold. The proposed methodology constructs a PCE of the random vector together with an associated generator that samples from the target probability distribution which is estimated from data concentrated in the neighborhood of the manifold. Themore » method is robust and remains efficient for high dimension and large datasets. The resulting polynomial chaos construction on manifolds permits the adaptation of many uncertainty quantification and statistical tools to emerging questions motivated by data-driven queries.« less

Exact calculation of loop formation probability identifies folding motifs in RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Sloma, Michael F; Mathews, David H

2016-12-01

RNA secondary structure prediction is widely used to analyze RNA sequences. In an RNA partition function calculation, free energy nearest neighbor parameters are used in a dynamic programming algorithm to estimate statistical properties of the secondary structure ensemble. Previously, partition functions have largely been used to estimate the probability that a given pair of nucleotides form a base pair, the conditional stacking probability, the accessibility to binding of a continuous stretch of nucleotides, or a representative sample of RNA structures. Here it is demonstrated that an RNA partition function can also be used to calculate the exact probability of formation of hairpin loops, internal loops, bulge loops, or multibranch loops at a given position. This calculation can also be used to estimate the probability of formation of specific helices. Benchmarking on a set of RNA sequences with known secondary structures indicated that loops that were calculated to be more probable were more likely to be present in the known structure than less probable loops. Furthermore, highly probable loops are more likely to be in the known structure than the set of loops predicted in the lowest free energy structures. © 2016 Sloma and Mathews; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

Modeling Dental Health Care Workers' Risk of Occupational Infection from Bloodborne Pathogens.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capilouto, Eli; And Others

1990-01-01

The brief paper offers a model which permits quantification of the dental health care workers' risk of occupationally acquiring infection from bloodborne pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B virus. The model incorporates five parameters such as the probability that any individual patient is infected and number of patients…

Automated reference-free detection of motion artifacts in magnetic resonance images.

PubMed

Küstner, Thomas; Liebgott, Annika; Mauch, Lukas; Martirosian, Petros; Bamberg, Fabian; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Yang, Bin; Schick, Fritz; Gatidis, Sergios

2018-04-01

Our objectives were to provide an automated method for spatially resolved detection and quantification of motion artifacts in MR images of the head and abdomen as well as a quality control of the trained architecture. T1-weighted MR images of the head and the upper abdomen were acquired in 16 healthy volunteers under rest and under motion. Images were divided into overlapping patches of different sizes achieving spatial separation. Using these patches as input data, a convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to derive probability maps for the presence of motion artifacts. A deep visualization offers a human-interpretable quality control of the trained CNN. Results were visually assessed on probability maps and as classification accuracy on a per-patch, per-slice and per-volunteer basis. On visual assessment, a clear difference of probability maps was observed between data sets with and without motion. The overall accuracy of motion detection on a per-patch/per-volunteer basis reached 97%/100% in the head and 75%/100% in the abdomen, respectively. Automated detection of motion artifacts in MRI is feasible with good accuracy in the head and abdomen. The proposed method provides quantification and localization of artifacts as well as a visualization of the learned content. It may be extended to other anatomic areas and used for quality assurance of MR images.

Quantifying risk and benchmarking performance in the adult intensive care unit.

PubMed

Higgins, Thomas L

2007-01-01

Morbidity, mortality, and length-of-stay outcomes in patients receiving critical care are difficult to interpret unless they are risk-stratified for diagnosis, presenting severity of illness, and other patient characteristics. Acuity adjustment systems for adults include the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), the Mortality Probability Model (MPM), and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS). All have recently been updated and recalibrated to reflect contemporary results. Specialized scores are also available for patient subpopulations where general acuity scores have drawbacks. Demand for outcomes data is likely to grow with pay-for-performance initiatives as well as for routine clinical, prognostic, administrative, and research applications. It is important for clinicians to understand how these scores are derived and how they are properly applied to quantify patient severity of illness and benchmark intensive care unit performance.

RBscore&NBench: a high-level web server for nucleic acid binding residues prediction with a large-scale benchmarking database.

PubMed

Miao, Zhichao; Westhof, Eric

2016-07-08

RBscore&NBench combines a web server, RBscore and a database, NBench. RBscore predicts RNA-/DNA-binding residues in proteins and visualizes the prediction scores and features on protein structures. The scoring scheme of RBscore directly links feature values to nucleic acid binding probabilities and illustrates the nucleic acid binding energy funnel on the protein surface. To avoid dataset, binding site definition and assessment metric biases, we compared RBscore with 18 web servers and 3 stand-alone programs on 41 datasets, which demonstrated the high and stable accuracy of RBscore. A comprehensive comparison led us to develop a benchmark database named NBench. The web server is available on: http://ahsoka.u-strasbg.fr/rbscorenbench/. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Localization and Quantification of Trace-gas Fugitive Emissions Using a Portable Optical Spectrometer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Eric; Teng, Chu; van Kessel, Theodore

We present a portable optical spectrometer for fugitive emissions monitoring of methane (CH4). The sensor operation is based on tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS), using a 5 cm open path design, and targets the 2ν3 R(4) CH4 transition at 6057.1 cm-1 (1651 nm) to avoid cross-talk with common interfering atmospheric constituents. Sensitivity analysis indicates a normalized precision of 2.0 ppmv∙Hz-1/2, corresponding to a noise-equivalent absorption (NEA) of 4.4×10-6 Hz-1/2 and minimum detectible absorption (MDA) coefficient of αmin = 8.8×10-7 cm-1∙Hz-1/2. Our TDLAS sensor is deployed at the Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC) at Colorado State University (CSU) formore » initial demonstration of single-sensor based source localization and quantification of CH4 fugitive emissions. The TDLAS sensor is concurrently deployed with a customized chemi-resistive metal-oxide (MOX) sensor for accuracy benchmarking, demonstrating good visual correlation of the concentration time-series. Initial angle-of-arrival (AOA) results will be shown, and development towards source magnitude estimation will be described.« less

The clinico-radiological paradox of cognitive function and MRI burden of white matter lesions in people with multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mollison, Daisy; Sellar, Robin; Bastin, Mark; Mollison, Denis; Chandran, Siddharthan; Wardlaw, Joanna; Connick, Peter

2017-01-01

Moderate correlation exists between the imaging quantification of brain white matter lesions and cognitive performance in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). This may reflect the greater importance of other features, including subvisible pathology, or methodological limitations of the primary literature. To summarise the cognitive clinico-radiological paradox and explore the potential methodological factors that could influence the assessment of this relationship. Systematic review and meta-analysis of primary research relating cognitive function to white matter lesion burden. Fifty papers met eligibility criteria for review, and meta-analysis of overall results was possible in thirty-two (2050 participants). Aggregate correlation between cognition and T2 lesion burden was r = -0.30 (95% confidence interval: -0.34, -0.26). Wide methodological variability was seen, particularly related to key factors in the cognitive data capture and image analysis techniques. Resolving the persistent clinico-radiological paradox will likely require simultaneous evaluation of multiple components of the complex pathology using optimum measurement techniques for both cognitive and MRI feature quantification. We recommend a consensus initiative to support common standards for image analysis in MS, enabling benchmarking while also supporting ongoing innovation.

Model Update of a Micro Air Vehicle (MAV) Flexible Wing Frame with Uncertainty Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reaves, Mercedes C.; Horta, Lucas G.; Waszak, Martin R.; Morgan, Benjamin G.

2004-01-01

This paper describes a procedure to update parameters in the finite element model of a Micro Air Vehicle (MAV) to improve displacement predictions under aerodynamics loads. Because of fabrication, materials, and geometric uncertainties, a statistical approach combined with Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) is used to modify key model parameters. Static test data collected using photogrammetry are used to correlate with model predictions. Results show significant improvements in model predictions after parameters are updated; however, computed probabilities values indicate low confidence in updated values and/or model structure errors. Lessons learned in the areas of wing design, test procedures, modeling approaches with geometric nonlinearities, and uncertainties quantification are all documented.

ELECTRA © Launch and Re-Entry Safety Analysis Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazare, B.; Arnal, M. H.; Aussilhou, C.; Blazquez, A.; Chemama, F.

2010-09-01

French Space Operation Act gives as prime objective to National Technical Regulations to protect people, properties, public health and environment. In this frame, an independent technical assessment of French space operation is delegated to CNES. To perform this task and also for his owns operations CNES needs efficient state-of-the-art tools for evaluating risks. The development of the ELECTRA© tool, undertaken in 2007, meets the requirement for precise quantification of the risks involved in launching and re-entry of spacecraft. The ELECTRA© project draws on the proven expertise of CNES technical centers in the field of flight analysis and safety, spaceflight dynamics and the design of spacecraft. The ELECTRA© tool was specifically designed to evaluate the risks involved in the re-entry and return to Earth of all or part of a spacecraft. It will also be used for locating and visualizing nominal or accidental re-entry zones while comparing them with suitable geographic data such as population density, urban areas, and shipping lines, among others. The method chosen for ELECTRA© consists of two main steps: calculating the possible reentry trajectories for each fragment after the spacecraft breaks up; calculating the risks while taking into account the energy of the fragments, the population density and protection afforded by buildings. For launch operations and active re-entry, the risk calculation will be weighted by the probability of instantaneous failure of the spacecraft and integrated for the whole trajectory. ELECTRA©’s development is today at the end of the validation phase, last step before delivery to users. Validation process has been performed in different ways: numerical application way for the risk formulation; benchmarking process for casualty area, level of energy of the fragments entries and level of protection housing module; best practices in space transportation industries concerning dependability evaluation; benchmarking process for world population repartition leading to the choice of a worldwide used model called GPW V3. Then, the complementary part for validation has been numerous system tests, most of them by comparison with already existing tools, operationally used for example into the European Space port in French Guyana. The purpose of this article is to review the method and models chosen by CNES for describing physical phenomena and the results of validation process including comparison with other risk assessment tools.

A computationally simple model for determining the time dependent spectral neutron flux in a nuclear reactor core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, E. A.; Deinert, M. R.; Cady, K. B.

2006-10-01

The balance of isotopes in a nuclear reactor core is key to understanding the overall performance of a given fuel cycle. This balance is in turn most strongly affected by the time and energy-dependent neutron flux. While many large and involved computer packages exist for determining this spectrum, a simplified approach amenable to rapid computation is missing from the literature. We present such a model, which accepts as inputs the fuel element/moderator geometry and composition, reactor geometry, fuel residence time and target burnup and we compare it to OECD/NEA benchmarks for homogeneous MOX and UOX LWR cores. Collision probability approximations to the neutron transport equation are used to decouple the spatial and energy variables. The lethargy dependent neutron flux, governed by coupled integral equations for the fuel and moderator/coolant regions is treated by multigroup thermalization methods, and the transport of neutrons through space is modeled by fuel to moderator transport and escape probabilities. Reactivity control is achieved through use of a burnable poison or adjustable control medium. The model calculates the buildup of 24 actinides, as well as fission products, along with the lethargy dependent neutron flux and the results of several simulations are compared with benchmarked standards.

Foster home placements and the probability of family reunification: Does licensing matter?

PubMed

Ryan, Joseph P; Perron, Brian E; Moore, Andrew; Victor, Bryan; Evangelist, Michael

2016-09-01

The concept of foster care has been widely studied in child welfare. The literature is well developed with regard to the risk of initial placement, length of stay in care, placement stability, exits to permanency, and emancipation. Yet, the literature is woefully underdeveloped when it comes to understanding if variations in the types and characteristics of foster homes impact important child welfare outcomes. The current study utilizes entry cohorts pulled from statewide administrative data (N=17,960) to investigate the association between types of foster care and the probability of reunification. We focus specifically on the licensing status of foster homes. Reflecting federal benchmarks, we examined the odds of reunification at one- and two-year intervals. Propensity score analysis was used to reduce selection bias. Adjusted logistic regression models revealed that youth placed in licensed relative care (LRC) homes were the least likely to achieve reunification compared with youth placed in licensed non-relative care (LNC) homes and unlicensed relative care (URC) homes. Conversely, youth placed in URC homes were more likely to achieve reunification as compared with youth placed in LRC and LNC homes. These findings will help states to efficiently target scarce resources to specific types of foster homes that may be impacting federal reunification benchmarks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elastic K-means using posterior probability.

PubMed

Zheng, Aihua; Jiang, Bo; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xuehan; Ding, Chris

2017-01-01

The widely used K-means clustering is a hard clustering algorithm. Here we propose a Elastic K-means clustering model (EKM) using posterior probability with soft capability where each data point can belong to multiple clusters fractionally and show the benefit of proposed Elastic K-means. Furthermore, in many applications, besides vector attributes information, pairwise relations (graph information) are also available. Thus we integrate EKM with Normalized Cut graph clustering into a single clustering formulation. Finally, we provide several useful matrix inequalities which are useful for matrix formulations of learning models. Based on these results, we prove the correctness and the convergence of EKM algorithms. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed EKM and its integrated model.

Improved techniques for outgoing wave variational principle calculations of converged state-to-state transition probabilities for chemical reactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mielke, Steven L.; Truhlar, Donald G.; Schwenke, David W.

1991-01-01

Improved techniques and well-optimized basis sets are presented for application of the outgoing wave variational principle to calculate converged quantum mechanical reaction probabilities. They are illustrated with calculations for the reactions D + H2 yields HD + H with total angular momentum J = 3 and F + H2 yields HF + H with J = 0 and 3. The optimization involves the choice of distortion potential, the grid for calculating half-integrated Green's functions, the placement, width, and number of primitive distributed Gaussians, and the computationally most efficient partition between dynamically adapted and primitive basis functions. Benchmark calculations with 224-1064 channels are presented.

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

Uncertainty Quantification of the FUN3D-Predicted NASA CRM Flutter Boundary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, Bret K.; Massey, Steven J.

2017-01-01

A nonintrusive point collocation method is used to propagate parametric uncertainties of the flexible Common Research Model, a generic transport configuration, through the unsteady aeroelastic CFD solver FUN3D. A range of random input variables are considered, including atmospheric flow variables, structural variables, and inertial (lumped mass) variables. UQ results are explored for a range of output metrics (with a focus on dynamic flutter stability), for both subsonic and transonic Mach numbers, for two different CFD mesh refinements. A particular focus is placed on computing failure probabilities: the probability that the wing will flutter within the flight envelope.

Rapid Parametric Mapping of the Longitudinal Relaxation Time T1 Using Two-Dimensional Variable Flip Angle Magnetic Resonance Imaging at 1.5 Tesla, 3 Tesla, and 7 Tesla

PubMed Central

Dieringer, Matthias A.; Deimling, Michael; Santoro, Davide; Wuerfel, Jens; Madai, Vince I.; Sobesky, Jan; von Knobelsdorff-Brenkenhoff, Florian; Schulz-Menger, Jeanette; Niendorf, Thoralf

2014-01-01

Introduction Visual but subjective reading of longitudinal relaxation time (T1) weighted magnetic resonance images is commonly used for the detection of brain pathologies. For this non-quantitative measure, diagnostic quality depends on hardware configuration, imaging parameters, radio frequency transmission field (B1+) uniformity, as well as observer experience. Parametric quantification of the tissue T1 relaxation parameter offsets the propensity for these effects, but is typically time consuming. For this reason, this study examines the feasibility of rapid 2D T1 quantification using a variable flip angles (VFA) approach at magnetic field strengths of 1.5 Tesla, 3 Tesla, and 7 Tesla. These efforts include validation in phantom experiments and application for brain T1 mapping. Methods T1 quantification included simulations of the Bloch equations to correct for slice profile imperfections, and a correction for B1+. Fast gradient echo acquisitions were conducted using three adjusted flip angles for the proposed T1 quantification approach that was benchmarked against slice profile uncorrected 2D VFA and an inversion-recovery spin-echo based reference method. Brain T1 mapping was performed in six healthy subjects, one multiple sclerosis patient, and one stroke patient. Results Phantom experiments showed a mean T1 estimation error of (-63±1.5)% for slice profile uncorrected 2D VFA and (0.2±1.4)% for the proposed approach compared to the reference method. Scan time for single slice T1 mapping including B1+ mapping could be reduced to 5 seconds using an in-plane resolution of (2×2) mm2, which equals a scan time reduction of more than 99% compared to the reference method. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that rapid 2D T1 quantification using a variable flip angle approach is feasible at 1.5T/3T/7T. It represents a valuable alternative for rapid T1 mapping due to the gain in speed versus conventional approaches. This progress may serve to enhance the capabilities of parametric MR based lesion detection and brain tissue characterization. PMID:24621588

Rapid parametric mapping of the longitudinal relaxation time T1 using two-dimensional variable flip angle magnetic resonance imaging at 1.5 Tesla, 3 Tesla, and 7 Tesla.

PubMed

Dieringer, Matthias A; Deimling, Michael; Santoro, Davide; Wuerfel, Jens; Madai, Vince I; Sobesky, Jan; von Knobelsdorff-Brenkenhoff, Florian; Schulz-Menger, Jeanette; Niendorf, Thoralf

2014-01-01

Visual but subjective reading of longitudinal relaxation time (T1) weighted magnetic resonance images is commonly used for the detection of brain pathologies. For this non-quantitative measure, diagnostic quality depends on hardware configuration, imaging parameters, radio frequency transmission field (B1+) uniformity, as well as observer experience. Parametric quantification of the tissue T1 relaxation parameter offsets the propensity for these effects, but is typically time consuming. For this reason, this study examines the feasibility of rapid 2D T1 quantification using a variable flip angles (VFA) approach at magnetic field strengths of 1.5 Tesla, 3 Tesla, and 7 Tesla. These efforts include validation in phantom experiments and application for brain T1 mapping. T1 quantification included simulations of the Bloch equations to correct for slice profile imperfections, and a correction for B1+. Fast gradient echo acquisitions were conducted using three adjusted flip angles for the proposed T1 quantification approach that was benchmarked against slice profile uncorrected 2D VFA and an inversion-recovery spin-echo based reference method. Brain T1 mapping was performed in six healthy subjects, one multiple sclerosis patient, and one stroke patient. Phantom experiments showed a mean T1 estimation error of (-63±1.5)% for slice profile uncorrected 2D VFA and (0.2±1.4)% for the proposed approach compared to the reference method. Scan time for single slice T1 mapping including B1+ mapping could be reduced to 5 seconds using an in-plane resolution of (2×2) mm2, which equals a scan time reduction of more than 99% compared to the reference method. Our results demonstrate that rapid 2D T1 quantification using a variable flip angle approach is feasible at 1.5T/3T/7T. It represents a valuable alternative for rapid T1 mapping due to the gain in speed versus conventional approaches. This progress may serve to enhance the capabilities of parametric MR based lesion detection and brain tissue characterization.

WE-H-207A-06: Hypoxia Quantification in Static PET Images: The Signal in the Noise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, H; Yeung, I; Milosevic, M

2016-06-15

Purpose: Quantification of hypoxia from PET images is of considerable clinical interest. In the absence of dynamic PET imaging the hypoxic fraction (HF) of a tumor has to be estimated from voxel values of activity concentration of a radioactive hypoxia tracer. This work is part of an effort to standardize quantification of tumor hypoxic fraction from PET images. Methods: A simple hypoxia imaging model in the tumor was developed. The distribution of the tracer activity was described as the sum of two different probability distributions, one for the normoxic (and necrotic), the other for the hypoxic voxels. The widths ofmore » the distributions arise due to variability of the transport, tumor tissue inhomogeneity, tracer binding kinetics, and due to PET image noise. Quantification of HF was performed for various levels of variability using two different methodologies: a) classification thresholds between normoxic and hypoxic voxels based on a non-hypoxic surrogate (muscle), and b) estimation of the (posterior) probability distributions based on maximizing likelihood optimization that does not require a surrogate. Data from the hypoxia imaging model and from 27 cervical cancer patients enrolled in a FAZA PET study were analyzed. Results: In the model, where the true value of HF is known, thresholds usually underestimate the value for large variability. For the patients, a significant uncertainty of the HF values (an average intra-patient range of 17%) was caused by spatial non-uniformity of image noise which is a hallmark of all PET images. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is able to directly optimize for the weights of both distributions, however, may suffer from poor optimization convergence. For some patients, MLE-based HF values showed significant differences to threshold-based HF-values. Conclusion: HF-values depend critically on the magnitude of the different sources of tracer uptake variability. A measure of confidence should also be reported.« less

Tracking Expected Improvements of Decadal Prediction in Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suckling, E.; Thompson, E.; Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Physics-based simulation models are ultimately expected to provide the best available (decision-relevant) probabilistic climate predictions, as they can capture the dynamics of the Earth System across a range of situations, situations for which observations for the construction of empirical models are scant if not nonexistent. This fact in itself provides neither evidence that predictions from today's Earth Systems Models will outperform today's empirical models, nor a guide to the space and time scales on which today's model predictions are adequate for a given purpose. Empirical (data-based) models are employed to make probability forecasts on decadal timescales. The skill of these forecasts is contrasted with that of state-of-the-art climate models, and the challenges faced by each approach are discussed. The focus is on providing decision-relevant probability forecasts for decision support. An empirical model, known as Dynamic Climatology is shown to be competitive with CMIP5 climate models on decadal scale probability forecasts. Contrasting the skill of simulation models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which a generation of simulation models exploits their physical basis effectively. It can also quantify their ability to add information in the formation of operational forecasts. Difficulties (i) of information contamination (ii) of the interpretation of probabilistic skill and (iii) of artificial skill complicate each modelling approach, and are discussed. "Physics free" empirical models provide fixed, quantitative benchmarks for the evaluation of ever more complex climate models, that is not available from (inter)comparisons restricted to only complex models. At present, empirical models can also provide a background term for blending in the formation of probability forecasts from ensembles of simulation models. In weather forecasting this role is filled by the climatological distribution, and can significantly enhance the value of longer lead-time weather forecasts to those who use them. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models become a regular component of large model forecast intercomparison and evaluation. This would clarify the extent to which a given generation of state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models. It would also clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. No model-based probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate if its own irrelevance; this estimate is likely to increase as a function of lead time. A lack of decision-relevant quantitative skill would not bring the science-based foundation of anthropogenic warming into doubt. Similar levels of skill with empirical models does suggest a clear quantification of limits, as a function of lead time, for spatial and temporal scales on which decisions based on such model output are expected to prove maladaptive. Failing to clearly state such weaknesses of a given generation of simulation models, while clearly stating their strength and their foundation, risks the credibility of science in support of policy in the long term.

Targeted Proteomic Quantification on Quadrupole-Orbitrap Mass Spectrometer*

PubMed Central

Gallien, Sebastien; Duriez, Elodie; Crone, Catharina; Kellmann, Markus; Moehring, Thomas; Domon, Bruno

2012-01-01

There is an immediate need for improved methods to systematically and precisely quantify large sets of peptides in complex biological samples. To date protein quantification in biological samples has been routinely performed on triple quadrupole instruments operated in selected reaction monitoring mode (SRM), and two major challenges remain. Firstly, the number of peptides to be included in one survey experiment needs to be increased to routinely reach several hundreds, and secondly, the degree of selectivity should be improved so as to reliably discriminate the targeted analytes from background interferences. High resolution and accurate mass (HR/AM) analysis on the recently developed Q-Exactive mass spectrometer can potentially address these issues. This instrument presents a unique configuration: it is constituted of an orbitrap mass analyzer equipped with a quadrupole mass filter as the front-end for precursor ion mass selection. This configuration enables new quantitative methods based on HR/AM measurements, including targeted analysis in MS mode (single ion monitoring) and in MS/MS mode (parallel reaction monitoring). The ability of the quadrupole to select a restricted m/z range allows one to overcome the dynamic range limitations associated with trapping devices, and the MS/MS mode provides an additional stage of selectivity. When applied to targeted protein quantification in urine samples and benchmarked with the reference SRM technique, the quadrupole-orbitrap instrument exhibits similar or better performance in terms of selectivity, dynamic range, and sensitivity. This high performance is further enhanced by leveraging the multiplexing capability of the instrument to design novel acquisition methods and apply them to large targeted proteomic studies for the first time, as demonstrated on 770 tryptic yeast peptides analyzed in one 60-min experiment. The increased quality of quadrupole-orbitrap data has the potential to improve existing protein quantification methods in complex samples and address the pressing demand of systems biology or biomarker evaluation studies. PMID:22962056

Uncertainty quantification of voice signal production mechanical model and experimental updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cataldo, E.; Soize, C.; Sampaio, R.

2013-11-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the uncertainty quantification in a voice production mechanical model and update the probability density function corresponding to the tension parameter using the Bayes method and experimental data. Three parameters are considered uncertain in the voice production mechanical model used: the tension parameter, the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure. The tension parameter of the vocal folds is mainly responsible for the changing of the fundamental frequency of a voice signal, generated by a mechanical/mathematical model for producing voiced sounds. The three uncertain parameters are modeled by random variables. The probability density function related to the tension parameter is considered uniform and the probability density functions related to the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure are constructed using the Maximum Entropy Principle. The output of the stochastic computational model is the random voice signal and the Monte Carlo method is used to solve the stochastic equations allowing realizations of the random voice signals to be generated. For each realization of the random voice signal, the corresponding realization of the random fundamental frequency is calculated and the prior pdf of this random fundamental frequency is then estimated. Experimental data are available for the fundamental frequency and the posterior probability density function of the random tension parameter is then estimated using the Bayes method. In addition, an application is performed considering a case with a pathology in the vocal folds. The strategy developed here is important mainly due to two things. The first one is related to the possibility of updating the probability density function of a parameter, the tension parameter of the vocal folds, which cannot be measured direct and the second one is related to the construction of the likelihood function. In general, it is predefined using the known pdf. Here, it is constructed in a new and different manner, using the own system considered.

Solving the stability-accuracy-diversity dilemma of recommender systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Lei; Liu, Kecheng; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Runtong

2017-02-01

Recommender systems are of great significance in predicting the potential interesting items based on the target user's historical selections. However, the recommendation list for a specific user has been found changing vastly when the system changes, due to the unstable quantification of item similarities, which is defined as the recommendation stability problem. To improve the similarity stability and recommendation stability is crucial for the user experience enhancement and the better understanding of user interests. While the stability as well as accuracy of recommendation could be guaranteed by recommending only popular items, studies have been addressing the necessity of diversity which requires the system to recommend unpopular items. By ranking the similarities in terms of stability and considering only the most stable ones, we present a top- n-stability method based on the Heat Conduction algorithm (denoted as TNS-HC henceforth) for solving the stability-accuracy-diversity dilemma. Experiments on four benchmark data sets indicate that the TNS-HC algorithm could significantly improve the recommendation stability and accuracy simultaneously and still retain the high-diversity nature of the Heat Conduction algorithm. Furthermore, we compare the performance of the TNS-HC algorithm with a number of benchmark recommendation algorithms. The result suggests that the TNS-HC algorithm is more efficient in solving the stability-accuracy-diversity triple dilemma of recommender systems.

A surrogate accelerated multicanonical Monte Carlo method for uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Keyi; Li, Jinglai

2016-09-01

In this work we consider a class of uncertainty quantification problems where the system performance or reliability is characterized by a scalar parameter y. The performance parameter y is random due to the presence of various sources of uncertainty in the system, and our goal is to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of y. We propose to use the multicanonical Monte Carlo (MMC) method, a special type of adaptive importance sampling algorithms, to compute the PDF of interest. Moreover, we develop an adaptive algorithm to construct local Gaussian process surrogates to further accelerate the MMC iterations. With numerical examples we demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve several orders of magnitudes of speedup over the standard Monte Carlo methods.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaltonen, T.; Brucken, E.; Devoto, F.

We search for resonant production of tt pairs in 4.8 fb{sup -1} integrated luminosity of pp collision data at {radical}(s)=1.96 TeV in the lepton+jets decay channel, where one top quark decays leptonically and the other hadronically. A matrix-element reconstruction technique is used; for each event a probability density function of the tt candidate invariant mass is sampled. These probability density functions are used to construct a likelihood function, whereby the cross section for resonant tt production is estimated, given a hypothetical resonance mass and width. The data indicate no evidence of resonant production of tt pairs. A benchmark model ofmore » leptophobic Z{sup '}{yields}tt is excluded with m{sub Z}{sup '}<900 GeV/c{sup 2} at 95% confidence level.« less

Elastic K-means using posterior probability

PubMed Central

Zheng, Aihua; Jiang, Bo; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xuehan; Ding, Chris

2017-01-01

The widely used K-means clustering is a hard clustering algorithm. Here we propose a Elastic K-means clustering model (EKM) using posterior probability with soft capability where each data point can belong to multiple clusters fractionally and show the benefit of proposed Elastic K-means. Furthermore, in many applications, besides vector attributes information, pairwise relations (graph information) are also available. Thus we integrate EKM with Normalized Cut graph clustering into a single clustering formulation. Finally, we provide several useful matrix inequalities which are useful for matrix formulations of learning models. Based on these results, we prove the correctness and the convergence of EKM algorithms. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed EKM and its integrated model. PMID:29240756

Predictive Game Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.

2005-01-01

Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

Challenges in leveraging existing human performance data for quantifying the IDHEAS HRA method

DOE PAGES

Liao, Huafei N.; Groth, Katrina; Stevens-Adams, Susan

2015-07-29

Our article documents an exploratory study for collecting and using human performance data to inform human error probability (HEP) estimates for a new human reliability analysis (HRA) method, the IntegrateD Human Event Analysis System (IDHEAS). The method was based on cognitive models and mechanisms underlying human behaviour and employs a framework of 14 crew failure modes (CFMs) to represent human failures typical for human performance in nuclear power plant (NPP) internal, at-power events [1]. A decision tree (DT) was constructed for each CFM to assess the probability of the CFM occurring in different contexts. Data needs for IDHEAS quantification aremore » discussed. Then, the data collection framework and process is described and how the collected data were used to inform HEP estimation is illustrated with two examples. Next, five major technical challenges are identified for leveraging human performance data for IDHEAS quantification. Furthermore, these challenges reflect the data needs specific to IDHEAS. More importantly, they also represent the general issues with current human performance data and can provide insight for a path forward to support HRA data collection, use, and exchange for HRA method development, implementation, and validation.« less

MSblender: A probabilistic approach for integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines.

PubMed

Kwon, Taejoon; Choi, Hyungwon; Vogel, Christine; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I; Marcotte, Edward M

2011-07-01

Shotgun proteomics using mass spectrometry is a powerful method for protein identification but suffers limited sensitivity in complex samples. Integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines is a promising strategy to increase the number of peptide identifications and reduce the volume of unassigned tandem mass spectra. Existing methods pool statistical significance scores such as p-values or posterior probabilities of peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) from multiple search engines after high scoring peptides have been assigned to spectra, but these methods lack reliable control of identification error rates as data are integrated from different search engines. We developed a statistically coherent method for integrative analysis, termed MSblender. MSblender converts raw search scores from search engines into a probability score for every possible PSM and properly accounts for the correlation between search scores. The method reliably estimates false discovery rates and identifies more PSMs than any single search engine at the same false discovery rate. Increased identifications increment spectral counts for most proteins and allow quantification of proteins that would not have been quantified by individual search engines. We also demonstrate that enhanced quantification contributes to improve sensitivity in differential expression analyses.

MSblender: a probabilistic approach for integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines

PubMed Central

Kwon, Taejoon; Choi, Hyungwon; Vogel, Christine; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I.; Marcotte, Edward M.

2011-01-01

Shotgun proteomics using mass spectrometry is a powerful method for protein identification but suffers limited sensitivity in complex samples. Integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines is a promising strategy to increase the number of peptide identifications and reduce the volume of unassigned tandem mass spectra. Existing methods pool statistical significance scores such as p-values or posterior probabilities of peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) from multiple search engines after high scoring peptides have been assigned to spectra, but these methods lack reliable control of identification error rates as data are integrated from different search engines. We developed a statistically coherent method for integrative analysis, termed MSblender. MSblender converts raw search scores from search engines into a probability score for all possible PSMs and properly accounts for the correlation between search scores. The method reliably estimates false discovery rates and identifies more PSMs than any single search engine at the same false discovery rate. Increased identifications increment spectral counts for all detected proteins and allow quantification of proteins that would not have been quantified by individual search engines. We also demonstrate that enhanced quantification contributes to improve sensitivity in differential expression analyses. PMID:21488652

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Space Object Collision Probability via Monte Carlo on the Graphics Processing Unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittaldev, Vivek; Russell, Ryan P.

2017-09-01

Fast and accurate collision probability computations are essential for protecting space assets. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the most accurate but computationally intensive method. A Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used to parallelize the computation and reduce the overall runtime. Using MC techniques to compute the collision probability is common in literature as the benchmark. An optimized implementation on the GPU, however, is a challenging problem and is the main focus of the current work. The MC simulation takes samples from the uncertainty distributions of the Resident Space Objects (RSOs) at any time during a time window of interest and outputs the separations at closest approach. Therefore, any uncertainty propagation method may be used and the collision probability is automatically computed as a function of RSO collision radii. Integration using a fixed time step and a quartic interpolation after every Runge Kutta step ensures that no close approaches are missed. Two orders of magnitude speedups over a serial CPU implementation are shown, and speedups improve moderately with higher fidelity dynamics. The tool makes the MC approach tractable on a single workstation, and can be used as a final product, or for verifying surrogate and analytical collision probability methods.

Quantifying errors without random sampling.

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V; LaPole, Luwanna M

2003-06-12

All quantifications of mortality, morbidity, and other health measures involve numerous sources of error. The routine quantification of random sampling error makes it easy to forget that other sources of error can and should be quantified. When a quantification does not involve sampling, error is almost never quantified and results are often reported in ways that dramatically overstate their precision. We argue that the precision implicit in typical reporting is problematic and sketch methods for quantifying the various sources of error, building up from simple examples that can be solved analytically to more complex cases. There are straightforward ways to partially quantify the uncertainty surrounding a parameter that is not characterized by random sampling, such as limiting reported significant figures. We present simple methods for doing such quantifications, and for incorporating them into calculations. More complicated methods become necessary when multiple sources of uncertainty must be combined. We demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation, using available software, can estimate the uncertainty resulting from complicated calculations with many sources of uncertainty. We apply the method to the current estimate of the annual incidence of foodborne illness in the United States. Quantifying uncertainty from systematic errors is practical. Reporting this uncertainty would more honestly represent study results, help show the probability that estimated values fall within some critical range, and facilitate better targeting of further research.

A Benchmark for Comparing Different Approaches for Specifying and Verifying Real-Time Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

To be considered correct or useful, real - time systems must deliver results within specified time intervals, either without exception or with high...probability. Recently, a large number of formal methods have been invented for specifying and verifying real - time systems . It has been suggested that...these formal methods need to be tested out on actual real - time systems . Such testing will allow the scalability of the methods to be assessed and also

Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

2015-08-01

The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis for future work in this field.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize the probable levels of atrazine for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks. Sites with a high probability of exceeding a benchmark for human health or aquatic life can be prioritized for monitoring.

Chemometrics resolution and quantification power evaluation: Application on pharmaceutical quaternary mixture of Paracetamol, Guaifenesin, Phenylephrine and p-aminophenol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yehia, Ali M.; Mohamed, Heba M.

2016-01-01

Three advanced chemmometric-assisted spectrophotometric methods namely; Concentration Residuals Augmented Classical Least Squares (CRACLS), Multivariate Curve Resolution-Alternating Least Squares (MCR-ALS) and Principal Component Analysis-Artificial Neural Networks (PCA-ANN) were developed, validated and benchmarked to PLS calibration; to resolve the severely overlapped spectra and simultaneously determine; Paracetamol (PAR), Guaifenesin (GUA) and Phenylephrine (PHE) in their ternary mixture and in presence of p-aminophenol (AP) the main degradation product and synthesis impurity of Paracetamol. The analytical performance of the proposed methods was described by percentage recoveries, root mean square error of calibration and standard error of prediction. The four multivariate calibration methods could be directly used without any preliminary separation step and successfully applied for pharmaceutical formulation analysis, showing no excipients' interference.

An Open-Source Standard T-Wave Alternans Detector for Benchmarking.

PubMed

Khaustov, A; Nemati, S; Clifford, Gd

2008-09-14

We describe an open source algorithm suite for T-Wave Alternans (TWA) detection and quantification. The software consists of Matlab implementations of the widely used Spectral Method and Modified Moving Average with libraries to read both WFDB and ASCII data under windows and Linux. The software suite can run in both batch mode and with a provided graphical user interface to aid waveform exploration. Our software suite was calibrated using an open source TWA model, described in a partner paper [1] by Clifford and Sameni. For the PhysioNet/CinC Challenge 2008 we obtained a score of 0.881 for the Spectral Method and 0.400 for the MMA method. However, our objective was not to provide the best TWA detector, but rather a basis for detailed discussion of algorithms.

A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking

PubMed Central

Kreibich, Heidi; Franco, Guillermo; Marechal, David

2016-01-01

Risk-based approaches have been increasingly accepted and operationalized in flood risk management during recent decades. For instance, commercial flood risk models are used by the insurance industry to assess potential losses, establish the pricing of policies and determine reinsurance needs. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools since the 1980s, loss estimates still reflect high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This requires an assessment of the validity and robustness of loss models as it affects prioritization and investment decision in flood risk management as well as regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry. Hence, more effort is needed to quantify uncertainties and undertake validations. Due to a lack of detailed and reliable flood loss data, first order validations are difficult to accomplish, so that model comparisons in terms of benchmarking are essential. It is checked if the models are informed by existing data and knowledge and if the assumptions made in the models are aligned with the existing knowledge. When this alignment is confirmed through validation or benchmarking exercises, the user gains confidence in the models. Before these benchmarking exercises are feasible, however, a cohesive survey of existing knowledge needs to be undertaken. With that aim, this work presents a review of flood loss–or flood vulnerability–relationships collected from the public domain and some professional sources. Our survey analyses 61 sources consisting of publications or software packages, of which 47 are reviewed in detail. This exercise results in probably the most complete review of flood loss models to date containing nearly a thousand vulnerability functions. These functions are highly heterogeneous and only about half of the loss models are found to be accompanied by explicit validation at the time of their proposal. This paper exemplarily presents an approach for a quantitative comparison of disparate models via the reduction to the joint input variables of all models. Harmonization of models for benchmarking and comparison requires profound insight into the model structures, mechanisms and underlying assumptions. Possibilities and challenges are discussed that exist in model harmonization and the application of the inventory in a benchmarking framework. PMID:27454604

A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking.

PubMed

Gerl, Tina; Kreibich, Heidi; Franco, Guillermo; Marechal, David; Schröter, Kai

2016-01-01

Risk-based approaches have been increasingly accepted and operationalized in flood risk management during recent decades. For instance, commercial flood risk models are used by the insurance industry to assess potential losses, establish the pricing of policies and determine reinsurance needs. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools since the 1980s, loss estimates still reflect high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This requires an assessment of the validity and robustness of loss models as it affects prioritization and investment decision in flood risk management as well as regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry. Hence, more effort is needed to quantify uncertainties and undertake validations. Due to a lack of detailed and reliable flood loss data, first order validations are difficult to accomplish, so that model comparisons in terms of benchmarking are essential. It is checked if the models are informed by existing data and knowledge and if the assumptions made in the models are aligned with the existing knowledge. When this alignment is confirmed through validation or benchmarking exercises, the user gains confidence in the models. Before these benchmarking exercises are feasible, however, a cohesive survey of existing knowledge needs to be undertaken. With that aim, this work presents a review of flood loss-or flood vulnerability-relationships collected from the public domain and some professional sources. Our survey analyses 61 sources consisting of publications or software packages, of which 47 are reviewed in detail. This exercise results in probably the most complete review of flood loss models to date containing nearly a thousand vulnerability functions. These functions are highly heterogeneous and only about half of the loss models are found to be accompanied by explicit validation at the time of their proposal. This paper exemplarily presents an approach for a quantitative comparison of disparate models via the reduction to the joint input variables of all models. Harmonization of models for benchmarking and comparison requires profound insight into the model structures, mechanisms and underlying assumptions. Possibilities and challenges are discussed that exist in model harmonization and the application of the inventory in a benchmarking framework.

Benchmarking Outpatient Rehabilitation Clinics Using Functional Status Outcomes.

PubMed

Gozalo, Pedro L; Resnik, Linda J; Silver, Benjamin

2016-04-01

To utilize functional status (FS) outcomes to benchmark outpatient therapy clinics. Outpatient therapy data from clinics using Focus on Therapeutic Outcomes (FOTO) assessments. Retrospective analysis of 538 clinics, involving 2,040 therapists and 90,392 patients admitted July 2006-June 2008. FS at discharge was modeled using hierarchical regression methods with patients nested within therapists within clinics. Separate models were estimated for all patients, for those with lumbar, and for those with shoulder impairments. All models risk-adjusted for intake FS, age, gender, onset, surgery count, functional comorbidity index, fear-avoidance level, and payer type. Inverse probability weighting adjusted for censoring. Functional status was captured using computer adaptive testing at intake and at discharge. Clinic and therapist effects explained 11.6 percent of variation in FS. Clinics ranked in the lowest quartile had significantly different outcomes than those in the highest quartile (p < .01). Clinics ranked similarly in lumbar and shoulder impairments (correlation = 0.54), but some clinics ranked in the highest quintile for one condition and in the lowest for the other. Benchmarking models based on validated FS measures clearly separated high-quality from low-quality clinics, and they could be used to inform value-based-payment policies. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Eigenspace perturbations for structural uncertainty estimation of turbulence closure models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jofre, Lluis; Mishra, Aashwin; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2017-11-01

With the present state of computational resources, a purely numerical resolution of turbulent flows encountered in engineering applications is not viable. Consequently, investigations into turbulence rely on various degrees of modeling. Archetypal amongst these variable resolution approaches would be RANS models in two-equation closures, and subgrid-scale models in LES. However, owing to the simplifications introduced during model formulation, the fidelity of all such models is limited, and therefore the explicit quantification of the predictive uncertainty is essential. In such scenario, the ideal uncertainty estimation procedure must be agnostic to modeling resolution, methodology, and the nature or level of the model filter. The procedure should be able to give reliable prediction intervals for different Quantities of Interest, over varied flows and flow conditions, and at diametric levels of modeling resolution. In this talk, we present and substantiate the Eigenspace perturbation framework as an uncertainty estimation paradigm that meets these criteria. Commencing from a broad overview, we outline the details of this framework at different modeling resolution. Thence, using benchmark flows, along with engineering problems, the efficacy of this procedure is established. This research was partially supported by NNSA under the Predictive Science Academic Alliance Program (PSAAP) II, and by DARPA under the Enabling Quantification of Uncertainty in Physical Systems (EQUiPS) project (technical monitor: Dr Fariba Fahroo).

FineSplice, enhanced splice junction detection and quantification: a novel pipeline based on the assessment of diverse RNA-Seq alignment solutions.

PubMed

Gatto, Alberto; Torroja-Fungairiño, Carlos; Mazzarotto, Francesco; Cook, Stuart A; Barton, Paul J R; Sánchez-Cabo, Fátima; Lara-Pezzi, Enrique

2014-04-01

Alternative splicing is the main mechanism governing protein diversity. The recent developments in RNA-Seq technology have enabled the study of the global impact and regulation of this biological process. However, the lack of standardized protocols constitutes a major bottleneck in the analysis of alternative splicing. This is particularly important for the identification of exon-exon junctions, which is a critical step in any analysis workflow. Here we performed a systematic benchmarking of alignment tools to dissect the impact of design and method on the mapping, detection and quantification of splice junctions from multi-exon reads. Accordingly, we devised a novel pipeline based on TopHat2 combined with a splice junction detection algorithm, which we have named FineSplice. FineSplice allows effective elimination of spurious junction hits arising from artefactual alignments, achieving up to 99% precision in both real and simulated data sets and yielding superior F1 scores under most tested conditions. The proposed strategy conjugates an efficient mapping solution with a semi-supervised anomaly detection scheme to filter out false positives and allows reliable estimation of expressed junctions from the alignment output. Ultimately this provides more accurate information to identify meaningful splicing patterns. FineSplice is freely available at https://sourceforge.net/p/finesplice/.

Risk Quantification of Systems Engineering Documents Improves Probability of DOD Project Success

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

comprehensive risk model for DoD milestone review documentation as well as recommended changes to the Capability Maturity Model Integration ( CMMI ) Project...Milestone Documentation, Project Planning, Rational Frame, Political Frame, CMMI Project Planning Process Area, CMMI Risk Management Process Area...well as recommended changes to the Capability Maturity Model Integration ( CMMI ) Project Planning and Risk Management process areas. The intent is to

UQTools: The Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox - Introduction and Tutorial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

UQTools is the short name for the Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox, a software package designed to efficiently quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on engineering systems. UQTools is a MATLAB-based software package and was designed to be discipline independent, employing very generic representations of the system models and uncertainty. Specifically, UQTools accepts linear and nonlinear system models and permits arbitrary functional dependencies between the system s measures of interest and the probabilistic or non-probabilistic parametric uncertainty. One of the most significant features incorporated into UQTools is the theoretical development centered on homothetic deformations and their application to set bounding and approximating failure probabilities. Beyond the set bounding technique, UQTools provides a wide range of probabilistic and uncertainty-based tools to solve key problems in science and engineering.

Numerical study of the influence of surface reaction probabilities on reactive species in an rf atmospheric pressure plasma containing humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Sandra; Gibson, Andrew R.; Kushner, Mark J.; Gans, Timo; O'Connell, Deborah

2018-01-01

The quantification and control of reactive species (RS) in atmospheric pressure plasmas (APPs) is of great interest for their technological applications, in particular in biomedicine. Of key importance in simulating the densities of these species are fundamental data on their production and destruction. In particular, data concerning particle-surface reaction probabilities in APPs are scarce, with most of these probabilities measured in low-pressure systems. In this work, the role of surface reaction probabilities, γ, of reactive neutral species (H, O and OH) on neutral particle densities in a He-H2O radio-frequency micro APP jet (COST-μ APPJ) are investigated using a global model. It is found that the choice of γ, particularly for low-mass species having large diffusivities, such as H, can change computed species densities significantly. The importance of γ even at elevated pressures offers potential for tailoring the RS composition of atmospheric pressure microplasmas by choosing different wall materials or plasma geometries.

Quantifying the probability of record-setting heat events in the historical record and at different levels of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Severe heat provides one of the most direct, acute, and rapidly changing impacts of climate on people and ecostystems. Theory, historical observations, and climate model simulations all suggest that global warming should increase the probability of hot events that fall outside of our historical experience. Given the acutre impacts of extreme heat, quantifying the probability of historically unprecedented hot events at different levels of climate forcing is critical for climate adaptation and mitigation decisions. However, in practice that quantification presents a number of methodological challenges. This presentation will review those methodological challenges, including the limitations of the observational record and of climate model fidelity. The presentation will detail a comprehensive approach to addressing these challenges. It will then demonstrate the application of that approach to quantifying uncertainty in the probability of record-setting hot events in the current climate, as well as periods with lower and higher greenhouse gas concentrations than the present.

Quantification of effective exoelectrogens by most probable number (MPN) in a microbial fuel cell.

PubMed

Heidrich, Elizabeth S; Curtis, Thomas P; Woodcock, Stephen; Dolfing, Jan

2016-10-01

The objective of this work was to quantify the number of exoelectrogens in wastewater capable of producing current in a microbial fuel cell by adapting the classical most probable number (MPN) methodology using current production as end point. Inoculating a series of microbial fuel cells with various dilutions of domestic wastewater and with acetate as test substrate yielded an apparent number of exoelectrogens of 17perml. Using current as a proxy for activity the apparent exoelectrogen growth rate was 0.03h(-1). With starch or wastewater as more complex test substrates similar apparent growth rates were obtained, but the apparent MPN based numbers of exoelectrogens in wastewater were significantly lower, probably because in contrast to acetate, complex substrates require complex food chains to deliver the electrons to the electrodes. Consequently, the apparent MPN is a function of the combined probabilities of members of the food chain being present. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

New features and improved uncertainty analysis in the NEA nuclear data sensitivity tool (NDaST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyrda, J.; Soppera, N.; Hill, I.; Bossant, M.; Gulliford, J.

2017-09-01

Following the release and initial testing period of the NEA's Nuclear Data Sensitivity Tool [1], new features have been designed and implemented in order to expand its uncertainty analysis capabilities. The aim is to provide a free online tool for integral benchmark testing, that is both efficient and comprehensive, meeting the needs of the nuclear data and benchmark testing communities. New features include access to P1 sensitivities for neutron scattering angular distribution [2] and constrained Chi sensitivities for the prompt fission neutron energy sampling. Both of these are compatible with covariance data accessed via the JANIS nuclear data software, enabling propagation of the resultant uncertainties in keff to a large series of integral experiment benchmarks. These capabilities are available using a number of different covariance libraries e.g., ENDF/B, JEFF, JENDL and TENDL, allowing comparison of the broad range of results it is possible to obtain. The IRPhE database of reactor physics measurements is now also accessible within the tool in addition to the criticality benchmarks from ICSBEP. Other improvements include the ability to determine and visualise the energy dependence of a given calculated result in order to better identify specific regions of importance or high uncertainty contribution. Sorting and statistical analysis of the selected benchmark suite is now also provided. Examples of the plots generated by the software are included to illustrate such capabilities. Finally, a number of analytical expressions, for example Maxwellian and Watt fission spectra will be included. This will allow the analyst to determine the impact of varying such distributions within the data evaluation, either through adjustment of parameters within the expressions, or by comparison to a more general probability distribution fitted to measured data. The impact of such changes is verified through calculations which are compared to a `direct' measurement found by adjustment of the original ENDF format file.

Ultracool dwarf benchmarks with Gaia primaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marocco, F.; Pinfield, D. J.; Cook, N. J.; Zapatero Osorio, M. R.; Montes, D.; Caballero, J. A.; Gálvez-Ortiz, M. C.; Gromadzki, M.; Jones, H. R. A.; Kurtev, R.; Smart, R. L.; Zhang, Z.; Cabrera Lavers, A. L.; García Álvarez, D.; Qi, Z. X.; Rickard, M. J.; Dover, L.

2017-10-01

We explore the potential of Gaia for the field of benchmark ultracool/brown dwarf companions, and present the results of an initial search for metal-rich/metal-poor systems. A simulated population of resolved ultracool dwarf companions to Gaia primary stars is generated and assessed. Of the order of ˜24 000 companions should be identifiable outside of the Galactic plane (|b| > 10 deg) with large-scale ground- and space-based surveys including late M, L, T and Y types. Our simulated companion parameter space covers 0.02 ≤ M/M⊙ ≤ 0.1, 0.1 ≤ age/Gyr ≤ 14 and -2.5 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ 0.5, with systems required to have a false alarm probability <10-4, based on projected separation and expected constraints on common distance, common proper motion and/or common radial velocity. Within this bulk population, we identify smaller target subsets of rarer systems whose collective properties still span the full parameter space of the population, as well as systems containing primary stars that are good age calibrators. Our simulation analysis leads to a series of recommendations for candidate selection and observational follow-up that could identify ˜500 diverse Gaia benchmarks. As a test of the veracity of our methodology and simulations, our initial search uses UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey and Sloan Digital Sky Survey to select secondaries, with the parameters of primaries taken from Tycho-2, Radial Velocity Experiment, Large sky Area Multi-Object fibre Spectroscopic Telescope and Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution. We identify and follow up 13 new benchmarks. These include M8-L2 companions, with metallicity constraints ranging in quality, but robust in the range -0.39 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ +0.36, and with projected physical separation in the range 0.6 < s/kau < 76. Going forward, Gaia offers a very high yield of benchmark systems, from which diverse subsamples may be able to calibrate a range of foundational ultracool/sub-stellar theory and observation.

Constraints on the pre-impact orbits of Solar system giant impactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Alan P.; Gabriel, Travis S. J.; Asphaug, Erik I.

2018-03-01

We provide a fast method for computing constraints on impactor pre-impact orbits, applying this to the late giant impacts in the Solar system. These constraints can be used to make quick, broad comparisons of different collision scenarios, identifying some immediately as low-probability events, and narrowing the parameter space in which to target follow-up studies with expensive N-body simulations. We benchmark our parameter space predictions, finding good agreement with existing N-body studies for the Moon. We suggest that high-velocity impact scenarios in the inner Solar system, including all currently proposed single impact scenarios for the formation of Mercury, should be disfavoured. This leaves a multiple hit-and-run scenario as the most probable currently proposed for the formation of Mercury.

Targeted Feature Detection for Data-Dependent Shotgun Proteomics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Label-free quantification of shotgun LC–MS/MS data is the prevailing approach in quantitative proteomics but remains computationally nontrivial. The central data analysis step is the detection of peptide-specific signal patterns, called features. Peptide quantification is facilitated by associating signal intensities in features with peptide sequences derived from MS2 spectra; however, missing values due to imperfect feature detection are a common problem. A feature detection approach that directly targets identified peptides (minimizing missing values) but also offers robustness against false-positive features (by assigning meaningful confidence scores) would thus be highly desirable. We developed a new feature detection algorithm within the OpenMS software framework, leveraging ideas and algorithms from the OpenSWATH toolset for DIA/SRM data analysis. Our software, FeatureFinderIdentification (“FFId”), implements a targeted approach to feature detection based on information from identified peptides. This information is encoded in an MS1 assay library, based on which ion chromatogram extraction and detection of feature candidates are carried out. Significantly, when analyzing data from experiments comprising multiple samples, our approach distinguishes between “internal” and “external” (inferred) peptide identifications (IDs) for each sample. On the basis of internal IDs, two sets of positive (true) and negative (decoy) feature candidates are defined. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier is then trained to discriminate between the sets and is subsequently applied to the “uncertain” feature candidates from external IDs, facilitating selection and confidence scoring of the best feature candidate for each peptide. This approach also enables our algorithm to estimate the false discovery rate (FDR) of the feature selection step. We validated FFId based on a public benchmark data set, comprising a yeast cell lysate spiked with protein standards that provide a known ground-truth. The algorithm reached almost complete (>99%) quantification coverage for the full set of peptides identified at 1% FDR (PSM level). Compared with other software solutions for label-free quantification, this is an outstanding result, which was achieved at competitive quantification accuracy and reproducibility across replicates. The FDR for the feature selection was estimated at a low 1.5% on average per sample (3% for features inferred from external peptide IDs). The FFId software is open-source and freely available as part of OpenMS (www.openms.org). PMID:28673088

Targeted Feature Detection for Data-Dependent Shotgun Proteomics.

PubMed

Weisser, Hendrik; Choudhary, Jyoti S

2017-08-04

Label-free quantification of shotgun LC-MS/MS data is the prevailing approach in quantitative proteomics but remains computationally nontrivial. The central data analysis step is the detection of peptide-specific signal patterns, called features. Peptide quantification is facilitated by associating signal intensities in features with peptide sequences derived from MS2 spectra; however, missing values due to imperfect feature detection are a common problem. A feature detection approach that directly targets identified peptides (minimizing missing values) but also offers robustness against false-positive features (by assigning meaningful confidence scores) would thus be highly desirable. We developed a new feature detection algorithm within the OpenMS software framework, leveraging ideas and algorithms from the OpenSWATH toolset for DIA/SRM data analysis. Our software, FeatureFinderIdentification ("FFId"), implements a targeted approach to feature detection based on information from identified peptides. This information is encoded in an MS1 assay library, based on which ion chromatogram extraction and detection of feature candidates are carried out. Significantly, when analyzing data from experiments comprising multiple samples, our approach distinguishes between "internal" and "external" (inferred) peptide identifications (IDs) for each sample. On the basis of internal IDs, two sets of positive (true) and negative (decoy) feature candidates are defined. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier is then trained to discriminate between the sets and is subsequently applied to the "uncertain" feature candidates from external IDs, facilitating selection and confidence scoring of the best feature candidate for each peptide. This approach also enables our algorithm to estimate the false discovery rate (FDR) of the feature selection step. We validated FFId based on a public benchmark data set, comprising a yeast cell lysate spiked with protein standards that provide a known ground-truth. The algorithm reached almost complete (>99%) quantification coverage for the full set of peptides identified at 1% FDR (PSM level). Compared with other software solutions for label-free quantification, this is an outstanding result, which was achieved at competitive quantification accuracy and reproducibility across replicates. The FDR for the feature selection was estimated at a low 1.5% on average per sample (3% for features inferred from external peptide IDs). The FFId software is open-source and freely available as part of OpenMS ( www.openms.org ).

Quantification of Vibrio species in oysters from the Gulf of Mexico with two procedures based on MPN and PCR.

PubMed

Barrera-Escorcia, Guadalupe; Wong-Chang, Irma; Fernández-Rendón, Carlos Leopoldo; Botello, Alfonso Vázquez; Gómez-Gil, Bruno; Lizárraga-Partida, Marcial Leonardo

2016-11-01

Oysters can accumulate potentially pathogenic water bacteria. The objective of this study was to compare two procedures to quantify Vibrio species present in oysters to determine the most sensitive method. We analyzed oyster samples from the Gulf of Mexico, commercialized in Mexico City. The samples were inoculated in tubes with alkaline peptone water (APW), based on three tubes and four dilutions (10 -1 to 10 -4 ). From these tubes, the first quantification of Vibrio species was performed (most probable number (MPN) from tubes) and bacteria were inoculated by streaking on thiosulfate-citrate-bile salts-sucrose (TCBS) petri dishes. Colonies were isolated for a second quantification (MPN from dishes). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to determine species with specific primers: ompW for Vibrio cholerae, tlh for Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and VvhA for Vibrio vulnificus. Simultaneously, the sanitary quality of oysters was determined. The quantification of V. parahaemolyticus was significantly higher in APW tubes than in TCBS dishes. Regarding V. vulnificus counts, the differences among both approaches were not significant. In contrast, the MPNs of V. cholerae obtained from dishes were higher than from tubes. The quantification of MPNs through PCR of V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus obtained from APW was sensitive and recommendable for the detection of both species. In contrast, to quantify V. cholerae, it was necessary to isolate colonies on TCBS prior PCR. Culturing in APW at 42 °C could be an alternative to avoid colony isolation. The MPNs of V. cholerae from dishes was associated with the bad sanitary quality of the samples.

A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.

Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may helpmore » address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.« less

Propagating Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs: Exploration of Two-Phase Monte Carlo Sampling and Probability Bounds Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.

Securing cyber-systems on a continual basis against a multitude of adverse events is a challenging undertaking. Game-theoretic approaches, that model actions of strategic decision-makers, are increasingly being applied to address cybersecurity resource allocation challenges. Such game-based models account for multiple player actions and represent cyber attacker payoffs mostly as point utility estimates. Since a cyber-attacker’s payoff generation mechanism is largely unknown, appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty is a critical task. In this paper we expand on prior work and focus on operationalizing the probabilistic uncertainty quantification framework, for a notional cyber system, through: 1) representation of uncertain attacker andmore » system-related modeling variables as probability distributions and mathematical intervals, and 2) exploration of uncertainty propagation techniques including two-phase Monte Carlo sampling and probability bounds analysis.« less

Exact and Approximate Probabilistic Symbolic Execution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luckow, Kasper; Pasareanu, Corina S.; Dwyer, Matthew B.; Filieri, Antonio; Visser, Willem

2014-01-01

Probabilistic software analysis seeks to quantify the likelihood of reaching a target event under uncertain environments. Recent approaches compute probabilities of execution paths using symbolic execution, but do not support nondeterminism. Nondeterminism arises naturally when no suitable probabilistic model can capture a program behavior, e.g., for multithreading or distributed systems. In this work, we propose a technique, based on symbolic execution, to synthesize schedulers that resolve nondeterminism to maximize the probability of reaching a target event. To scale to large systems, we also introduce approximate algorithms to search for good schedulers, speeding up established random sampling and reinforcement learning results through the quantification of path probabilities based on symbolic execution. We implemented the techniques in Symbolic PathFinder and evaluated them on nondeterministic Java programs. We show that our algorithms significantly improve upon a state-of- the-art statistical model checking algorithm, originally developed for Markov Decision Processes.

Uncertainty quantification analysis of the dynamics of an electrostatically actuated microelectromechanical switch model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, Michael G.; Bajaj, Anil K.

2015-08-01

This work presents an uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis of a comprehensive model for an electrostatically actuated microelectromechanical system (MEMS) switch. The goal is to elucidate the effects of parameter variations on certain key performance characteristics of the switch. A sufficiently detailed model of the electrostatically actuated switch in the basic configuration of a clamped-clamped beam is developed. This multi-physics model accounts for various physical effects, including the electrostatic fringing field, finite length of electrodes, squeeze film damping, and contact between the beam and the dielectric layer. The performance characteristics of immediate interest are the static and dynamic pull-in voltages for the switch. Numerical approaches for evaluating these characteristics are developed and described. Using Latin Hypercube Sampling and other sampling methods, the model is evaluated to find these performance characteristics when variability in the model's geometric and physical parameters is specified. Response surfaces of these results are constructed via a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) technique. Using a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) technique on these response surfaces gives smooth probability density functions (PDFs) of the outputs characteristics when input probability characteristics are specified. The relative variation in the two pull-in voltages due to each of the input parameters is used to determine the critical parameters.

Benchmarking for Bayesian Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Ernst, Damien; Couëtoux, Adrien

2016-01-01

In the Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) setting, agents try to maximise the collected rewards while interacting with their environment while using some prior knowledge that is accessed beforehand. Many BRL algorithms have already been proposed, but the benchmarks used to compare them are only relevant for specific cases. The paper addresses this problem, and provides a new BRL comparison methodology along with the corresponding open source library. In this methodology, a comparison criterion that measures the performance of algorithms on large sets of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) drawn from some probability distributions is defined. In order to enable the comparison of non-anytime algorithms, our methodology also includes a detailed analysis of the computation time requirement of each algorithm. Our library is released with all source code and documentation: it includes three test problems, each of which has two different prior distributions, and seven state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Finally, our library is illustrated by comparing all the available algorithms and the results are discussed. PMID:27304891

Quantum computing applied to calculations of molecular energies: CH2 benchmark.

PubMed

Veis, Libor; Pittner, Jiří

2010-11-21

Quantum computers are appealing for their ability to solve some tasks much faster than their classical counterparts. It was shown in [Aspuru-Guzik et al., Science 309, 1704 (2005)] that they, if available, would be able to perform the full configuration interaction (FCI) energy calculations with a polynomial scaling. This is in contrast to conventional computers where FCI scales exponentially. We have developed a code for simulation of quantum computers and implemented our version of the quantum FCI algorithm. We provide a detailed description of this algorithm and the results of the assessment of its performance on the four lowest lying electronic states of CH(2) molecule. This molecule was chosen as a benchmark, since its two lowest lying (1)A(1) states exhibit a multireference character at the equilibrium geometry. It has been shown that with a suitably chosen initial state of the quantum register, one is able to achieve the probability amplification regime of the iterative phase estimation algorithm even in this case.

Benchmarking for Bayesian Reinforcement Learning.

PubMed

Castronovo, Michael; Ernst, Damien; Couëtoux, Adrien; Fonteneau, Raphael

2016-01-01

In the Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) setting, agents try to maximise the collected rewards while interacting with their environment while using some prior knowledge that is accessed beforehand. Many BRL algorithms have already been proposed, but the benchmarks used to compare them are only relevant for specific cases. The paper addresses this problem, and provides a new BRL comparison methodology along with the corresponding open source library. In this methodology, a comparison criterion that measures the performance of algorithms on large sets of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) drawn from some probability distributions is defined. In order to enable the comparison of non-anytime algorithms, our methodology also includes a detailed analysis of the computation time requirement of each algorithm. Our library is released with all source code and documentation: it includes three test problems, each of which has two different prior distributions, and seven state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Finally, our library is illustrated by comparing all the available algorithms and the results are discussed.

Verification of space weather forecasts at the UK Met Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D.; Murray, S.

2017-12-01

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has produced space weather guidance twice a day since its official opening in 2014. Guidance includes 4-day probabilistic forecasts of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms, high-energy electron events and high-energy proton events. Evaluation of such forecasts is important to forecasters, stakeholders, model developers and users to understand the performance of these forecasts and also strengths and weaknesses to enable further development. Met Office terrestrial near real-time verification systems have been adapted to provide verification of X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts. Verification is updated daily to produce Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Reliability diagrams, and rolling Ranked Probability Skill Scores (RPSSs) thus providing understanding of forecast performance and skill. Results suggest that the MOSWOC issued X-ray flare forecasts are usually not statistically significantly better than a benchmark climatological forecast (where the climatology is based on observations from the previous few months). By contrast, the issued geomagnetic storm activity forecast typically performs better against this climatological benchmark.

Establishment of National Laboratory Standards in Public and Private Hospital Laboratories

PubMed Central

ANJARANI, Soghra; SAFADEL, Nooshafarin; DAHIM, Parisa; AMINI, Rana; MAHDAVI, Saeed; MIRAB SAMIEE, Siamak

2013-01-01

In September 2007 national standard manual was finalized and officially announced as the minimal quality requirements for all medical laboratories in the country. Apart from auditing laboratories, Reference Health Laboratory has performed benchmarking auditing of medical laboratory network (surveys) in provinces. 12th benchmarks performed in Tehran and Alborz provinces, Iran in 2010 in three stages. We tried to compare different processes, their quality and accordance with national standard measures between public and private hospital laboratories. The assessment tool was a standardized checklist consists of 164 questions. Analyzing process show although in most cases implementing the standard requirements are more prominent in private laboratories, there is still a long way to complete fulfillment of requirements, and it takes a lot of effort. Differences between laboratories in public and private sectors especially in laboratory personnel and management process are significant. Probably lack of motivation, plays a key role in obtaining less desirable results in laboratories in public sectors. PMID:23514840

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

PubMed

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation

PubMed Central

Farmer, Jenny

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference. PMID:29750803

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Chemometrics resolution and quantification power evaluation: Application on pharmaceutical quaternary mixture of Paracetamol, Guaifenesin, Phenylephrine and p-aminophenol.

PubMed

Yehia, Ali M; Mohamed, Heba M

2016-01-05

Three advanced chemmometric-assisted spectrophotometric methods namely; Concentration Residuals Augmented Classical Least Squares (CRACLS), Multivariate Curve Resolution-Alternating Least Squares (MCR-ALS) and Principal Component Analysis-Artificial Neural Networks (PCA-ANN) were developed, validated and benchmarked to PLS calibration; to resolve the severely overlapped spectra and simultaneously determine; Paracetamol (PAR), Guaifenesin (GUA) and Phenylephrine (PHE) in their ternary mixture and in presence of p-aminophenol (AP) the main degradation product and synthesis impurity of Paracetamol. The analytical performance of the proposed methods was described by percentage recoveries, root mean square error of calibration and standard error of prediction. The four multivariate calibration methods could be directly used without any preliminary separation step and successfully applied for pharmaceutical formulation analysis, showing no excipients' interference. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rediscovery of Good-Turing estimators via Bayesian nonparametrics.

PubMed

Favaro, Stefano; Nipoti, Bernardo; Teh, Yee Whye

2016-03-01

The problem of estimating discovery probabilities originated in the context of statistical ecology, and in recent years it has become popular due to its frequent appearance in challenging applications arising in genetics, bioinformatics, linguistics, designs of experiments, machine learning, etc. A full range of statistical approaches, parametric and nonparametric as well as frequentist and Bayesian, has been proposed for estimating discovery probabilities. In this article, we investigate the relationships between the celebrated Good-Turing approach, which is a frequentist nonparametric approach developed in the 1940s, and a Bayesian nonparametric approach recently introduced in the literature. Specifically, under the assumption of a two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet prior, we show that Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities are asymptotically equivalent, for a large sample size, to suitably smoothed Good-Turing estimators. As a by-product of this result, we introduce and investigate a methodology for deriving exact and asymptotic credible intervals to be associated with the Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study and the analysis of Expressed Sequence Tags data generated by sequencing a benchmark complementary DNA library. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Python Radiative Transfer Emission code (PyRaTE): non-LTE spectral lines simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tritsis, A.; Yorke, H.; Tassis, K.

2018-05-01

We describe PyRaTE, a new, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) line radiative transfer code developed specifically for post-processing astrochemical simulations. Population densities are estimated using the escape probability method. When computing the escape probability, the optical depth is calculated towards all directions with density, molecular abundance, temperature and velocity variations all taken into account. A very easy-to-use interface, capable of importing data from simulations outputs performed with all major astrophysical codes, is also developed. The code is written in PYTHON using an "embarrassingly parallel" strategy and can handle all geometries and projection angles. We benchmark the code by comparing our results with those from RADEX (van der Tak et al. 2007) and against analytical solutions and present case studies using hydrochemical simulations. The code will be released for public use.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lin; Dai, Zhenxue; Gong, Huili

Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in anmore » accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.« less

Statistic inversion of multi-zone transition probability models for aquifer characterization in alluvial fans

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Lin; Dai, Zhenxue; Gong, Huili; ...

2015-06-12

Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in anmore » accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.« less

New Ways Of Doing Business (NWODB) cost quantification analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamaker, Joseph W.; Rosmait, Russell L.

1992-01-01

The cost of designing, producing, and operating typical aerospace flight hardware is necessarily more expensive than most other human endeavors. Because of the more stringent environment of space, hardware designed to operate there will probably always be more expensive than similar hardware which is designed for less taxing environments. It is the thesis of this study that there are very significant improvements that can be made in the cost of aerospace flight hardware.

Evaluating Soil Health Using Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration on the Benchmark Barnes Soils of North Dakota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, Meyer; Hopkins, David; Steele, Dean; Tuscherer, Sheldon

2017-04-01

The benchmark Barnes soil series is an extensive upland Hapludoll of the northern Great Plains that is both economically and ecologically vital to the region. Effects of tillage erosion coupled with wind and water erosion have degraded Barnes soil quality, but with unknown extent, distribution, or severity. Evidence of soil degradation documented for a half century warrants that the assumption of productivity be tested. Soil resilience is linked to several dynamic soil properties and National Cooperative Soil Survey initiatives are now focused on identifying those properties for benchmark soils. Quantification of soil degradation is dependent on a reliable method for broad-scale evaluation. The soil survey community is currently developing rapid and widespread soil property assessment technologies. Improvements in satellite based remote-sensing and image analysis software have stimulated the application of broad-scale resource assessment. Furthermore, these technologies have fostered refinement of land-based surface energy balance algorithms, i.e. Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) algorithm for evapotranspiration (ET) mapping. The hypothesis of this study is that ET mapping technology can differentiate soil function on extensive landscapes and identify degraded areas. A recent soil change study in eastern North Dakota resampled legacy Barnes pedons sampled prior to 1960 and found significant decreases in organic carbon. An ancillary study showed that evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from METRIC decreased with Barnes erosion class severity. An ET raster map has been developed for three eastern North Dakota counties using METRIC and Landsat 5 imagery. ET pixel candidates on major Barnes soil map units were stratified into tertiles and classified as ranked ET subdivisions. A sampling population of randomly selected points stratified by ET class and county proportion was established. Morphologic and chemical data will be recorded at each sampling site to test whether soil properties correlate to ET, thus serving as a non-biased proxy for soil health.

Quiet planting in the locked constraints satisfaction problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zdeborova, Lenka; Krzakala, Florent

2009-01-01

We study the planted ensemble of locked constraint satisfaction problems. We describe the connection between the random and planted ensembles. The use of the cavity method is combined with arguments from reconstruction on trees and first and second moment considerations; in particular the connection with the reconstruction on trees appears to be crucial. Our main result is the location of the hard region in the planted ensemble, thus providing hard satisfiable benchmarks. In a part of that hard region instances have with high probability a single satisfying assignment.

A fuzzy Bayesian network approach to quantify the human behaviour during an evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Nurulhuda; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Ahmad, Nazihah

2016-06-01

Bayesian Network (BN) has been regarded as a successful representation of inter-relationship of factors affecting human behavior during an emergency. This paper is an extension of earlier work of quantifying the variables involved in the BN model of human behavior during an evacuation using a well-known direct probability elicitation technique. To overcome judgment bias and reduce the expert's burden in providing precise probability values, a new approach for the elicitation technique is required. This study proposes a new fuzzy BN approach for quantifying human behavior during an evacuation. Three major phases of methodology are involved, namely 1) development of qualitative model representing human factors during an evacuation, 2) quantification of BN model using fuzzy probability and 3) inferencing and interpreting the BN result. A case study of three inter-dependencies of human evacuation factors such as danger assessment ability, information about the threat and stressful conditions are used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. This approach will serve as an alternative to the conventional probability elicitation technique in understanding the human behavior during an evacuation.

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding.

PubMed

ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R; van Gelder, P H A J M

2009-01-01

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk generally focus on heavy storm events as the principal cause of flooding. Conversely, fault tree analysis is a technique that aims at modelling all potential causes of flooding. It quantifies both overall flood probability and relative contributions of individual causes of flooding. This paper presents a fault model for urban flooding and an application to the case of Haarlem, a city of 147,000 inhabitants. Data from a complaint register, rainfall gauges and hydrodynamic model calculations are used to quantify probabilities of basic events in the fault tree. This results in a flood probability of 0.78/week for Haarlem. It is shown that gully pot blockages contribute to 79% of flood incidents, whereas storm events contribute only 5%. This implies that for this case more efficient gully pot cleaning is a more effective strategy to reduce flood probability than enlarging drainage system capacity. Whether this is also the most cost-effective strategy can only be decided after risk assessment has been complemented with a quantification of consequences of both types of events. To do this will be the next step in this study.

HMM-ModE: implementation, benchmarking and validation with HMMER3

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background HMM-ModE is a computational method that generates family specific profile HMMs using negative training sequences. The method optimizes the discrimination threshold using 10 fold cross validation and modifies the emission probabilities of profiles to reduce common fold based signals shared with other sub-families. The protocol depends on the program HMMER for HMM profile building and sequence database searching. The recent release of HMMER3 has improved database search speed by several orders of magnitude, allowing for the large scale deployment of the method in sequence annotation projects. We have rewritten our existing scripts both at the level of parsing the HMM profiles and modifying emission probabilities to upgrade HMM-ModE using HMMER3 that takes advantage of its probabilistic inference with high computational speed. The method is benchmarked and tested on GPCR dataset as an accurate and fast method for functional annotation. Results The implementation of this method, which now works with HMMER3, is benchmarked with the earlier version of HMMER, to show that the effect of local-local alignments is marked only in the case of profiles containing a large number of discontinuous match states. The method is tested on a gold standard set of families and we have reported a significant reduction in the number of false positive hits over the default HMM profiles. When implemented on GPCR sequences, the results showed an improvement in the accuracy of classification compared with other methods used to classify the familyat different levels of their classification hierarchy. Conclusions The present findings show that the new version of HMM-ModE is a highly specific method used to differentiate between fold (superfamily) and function (family) specific signals, which helps in the functional annotation of protein sequences. The use of modified profile HMMs of GPCR sequences provides a simple yet highly specific method for classification of the family, being able to predict the sub-family specific sequences with high accuracy even though sequences share common physicochemical characteristics between sub-families. PMID:25073805

A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis.

PubMed

Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong

2013-01-01

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Microstructural heterogeneity directs micromechanics and mechanobiology in native and engineered fibrocartilage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Woojin M.; Heo, Su-Jin; Driscoll, Tristan P.; Delucca, John F.; McLeod, Claire M.; Smith, Lachlan J.; Duncan, Randall L.; Mauck, Robert L.; Elliott, Dawn M.

2016-04-01

Treatment strategies to address pathologies of fibrocartilaginous tissue are in part limited by an incomplete understanding of structure-function relationships in these load-bearing tissues. There is therefore a pressing need to develop micro-engineered tissue platforms that can recreate the highly inhomogeneous tissue microstructures that are known to influence mechanotransductive processes in normal and diseased tissue. Here, we report the quantification of proteoglycan-rich microdomains in developing, ageing and diseased fibrocartilaginous tissues, and the impact of these microdomains on endogenous cell responses to physiologic deformation within a native-tissue context. We also developed a method to generate heterogeneous tissue-engineered constructs (hetTECs) with non-fibrous proteoglycan-rich microdomains engineered into the fibrous structure, and show that these hetTECs match the microstructural, micromechanical and mechanobiological benchmarks of native tissue. Our tissue-engineered platform should facilitate the study of the mechanobiology of developing, homeostatic, degenerating and regenerating fibrous tissues.

Microstructural heterogeneity directs micromechanics and mechanobiology in native and engineered fibrocartilage.

PubMed

Han, Woojin M; Heo, Su-Jin; Driscoll, Tristan P; Delucca, John F; McLeod, Claire M; Smith, Lachlan J; Duncan, Randall L; Mauck, Robert L; Elliott, Dawn M

2016-04-01

Treatment strategies to address pathologies of fibrocartilaginous tissue are in part limited by an incomplete understanding of structure-function relationships in these load-bearing tissues. There is therefore a pressing need to develop micro-engineered tissue platforms that can recreate the highly inhomogeneous tissue microstructures that are known to influence mechanotransductive processes in normal and diseased tissue. Here, we report the quantification of proteoglycan-rich microdomains in developing, ageing and diseased fibrocartilaginous tissues, and the impact of these microdomains on endogenous cell responses to physiologic deformation within a native-tissue context. We also developed a method to generate heterogeneous tissue-engineered constructs (hetTECs) with non-fibrous proteoglycan-rich microdomains engineered into the fibrous structure, and show that these hetTECs match the microstructural, micromechanical and mechanobiological benchmarks of native tissue. Our tissue-engineered platform should facilitate the study of the mechanobiology of developing, homeostatic, degenerating and regenerating fibrous tissues.

Reconstruction of stochastic temporal networks through diffusive arrival times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xun; Li, Xiang

2017-06-01

Temporal networks have opened a new dimension in defining and quantification of complex interacting systems. Our ability to identify and reproduce time-resolved interaction patterns is, however, limited by the restricted access to empirical individual-level data. Here we propose an inverse modelling method based on first-arrival observations of the diffusion process taking place on temporal networks. We describe an efficient coordinate-ascent implementation for inferring stochastic temporal networks that builds in particular but not exclusively on the null model assumption of mutually independent interaction sequences at the dyadic level. The results of benchmark tests applied on both synthesized and empirical network data sets confirm the validity of our algorithm, showing the feasibility of statistically accurate inference of temporal networks only from moderate-sized samples of diffusion cascades. Our approach provides an effective and flexible scheme for the temporally augmented inverse problems of network reconstruction and has potential in a broad variety of applications.

A state-of-the-art review on segmentation algorithms in intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) images.

PubMed

Katouzian, Amin; Angelini, Elsa D; Carlier, Stéphane G; Suri, Jasjit S; Navab, Nassir; Laine, Andrew F

2012-09-01

Over the past two decades, intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) image segmentation has remained a challenge for researchers while the use of this imaging modality is rapidly growing in catheterization procedures and in research studies. IVUS provides cross-sectional grayscale images of the arterial wall and the extent of atherosclerotic plaques with high spatial resolution in real time. In this paper, we review recently developed image processing methods for the detection of media-adventitia and luminal borders in IVUS images acquired with different transducers operating at frequencies ranging from 20 to 45 MHz. We discuss methodological challenges, lack of diversity in reported datasets, and weaknesses of quantification metrics that make IVUS segmentation still an open problem despite all efforts. In conclusion, we call for a common reference database, validation metrics, and ground-truth definition with which new and existing algorithms could be benchmarked.

PCR-activated cell sorting as a general, cultivation-free method for high-throughput identification and enrichment of virus hosts

PubMed Central

Lim, Shaun W.; Lance, Shea T.; Stedman, Kenneth M.; Abate, Adam R.

2017-01-01

Characterizing virus-host relationships is critical for understanding the impact of a virus on an ecosystem, but is challenging with existing techniques, particularly for uncultivable species. We present a general, cultivation-free approach for identifying phage-associated bacterial cells. Using PCR-activated cell sorting, we interrogate millions of individual bacteria for the presence of specific phage nucleic acids. If the nucleic acids are present, the bacteria are recovered via sorting and their genomes analyzed. This allows targeted recovery of all possible host species in a diverse population associated with a specific phage, and can be easily targeted to identify the hosts of different phages by modifying the PCR primers used for detection. Moreover, this technique allows quantification of free phage particles, as benchmarked against the “gold standard” of virus enumeration, the plaque assay. PMID:28042018

PCR-activated cell sorting as a general, cultivation-free method for high-throughput identification and enrichment of virus hosts.

PubMed

Lim, Shaun W; Lance, Shea T; Stedman, Kenneth M; Abate, Adam R

2017-04-01

Characterizing virus-host relationships is critical for understanding the impact of a virus on an ecosystem, but is challenging with existing techniques, particularly for uncultivable species. We present a general, cultivation-free approach for identifying phage-associated bacterial cells. Using PCR-activated cell sorting, we interrogate millions of individual bacteria for the presence of specific phage nucleic acids. If the nucleic acids are present, the bacteria are recovered via sorting and their genomes analyzed. This allows targeted recovery of all possible host species in a diverse population associated with a specific phage, and can be easily targeted to identify the hosts of different phages by modifying the PCR primers used for detection. Moreover, this technique allows quantification of free phage particles, as benchmarked against the "gold standard" of virus enumeration, the plaque assay. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microstructural Heterogeneity in Native and Engineered Fibrocartilage Directs Micromechanics and Mechanobiology

PubMed Central

Han, Woojin M; Heo, Su-Jin; Driscoll, Tristan P; Delucca, John F; McLeod, Claire M; Smith, Lachlan J; Duncan, Randall L; Mauck, Robert L; Elliott, Dawn M

2015-01-01

Treatment strategies to address pathologies of fibrocartilaginous tissue are in part limited by an incomplete understanding of structure-function relationships in these load-bearing tissues. There is therefore a pressing need to develop microengineered tissue platforms that can recreate the highly inhomogeneous tissue microstructures that are known to influence mechanotransductive processes in normal and diseased tissue. Here, we report the quantification of proteoglycan-rich microdomains in developing, aging, and diseased fibrocartilaginous tissues, and the impact of these microdomains on endogenous cell responses to physiologic deformation within a native-tissue context. We also developed a method to generate heterogeneous tissue engineered constructs (hetTECs) with microscale non-fibrous proteoglycan-rich microdomains engineered into the fibrous structure, and show that these hetTECs match the microstructural, micromechanical, and mechanobiological benchmarks of native tissue. Our tissue engineered platform should facilitate the study of the mechanobiology of developing, homeostatic, degenerating, and regenerating fibrous tissues. PMID:26726994

Reconstruction of stochastic temporal networks through diffusive arrival times

PubMed Central

Li, Xun; Li, Xiang

2017-01-01

Temporal networks have opened a new dimension in defining and quantification of complex interacting systems. Our ability to identify and reproduce time-resolved interaction patterns is, however, limited by the restricted access to empirical individual-level data. Here we propose an inverse modelling method based on first-arrival observations of the diffusion process taking place on temporal networks. We describe an efficient coordinate-ascent implementation for inferring stochastic temporal networks that builds in particular but not exclusively on the null model assumption of mutually independent interaction sequences at the dyadic level. The results of benchmark tests applied on both synthesized and empirical network data sets confirm the validity of our algorithm, showing the feasibility of statistically accurate inference of temporal networks only from moderate-sized samples of diffusion cascades. Our approach provides an effective and flexible scheme for the temporally augmented inverse problems of network reconstruction and has potential in a broad variety of applications. PMID:28604687

Variability of manual ciliary muscle segmentation in optical coherence tomography images.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Cherng; Liu, Keke; Cabot, Florence; Yoo, Sonia H; Ruggeri, Marco; Ho, Arthur; Parel, Jean-Marie; Manns, Fabrice

2018-02-01

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) offers new options for imaging the ciliary muscle allowing direct in vivo visualization. However, variation in image quality along the length of the muscle prevents accurate delineation and quantification of the muscle. Quantitative analyses of the muscle are accompanied by variability in segmentation between examiners and between sessions for the same examiner. In processes such as accommodation where changes in muscle thickness may be tens of microns- the equivalent of a small number of image pixels, differences in segmentation can influence the magnitude and potentially the direction of thickness change. A detailed analysis of variability in ciliary muscle thickness measurements was performed to serve as a benchmark for the extent of this variability in studies on the ciliary muscle. Variation between sessions and examiners were found to be insignificant but the magnitude of variation should be considered when interpreting ciliary muscle results.

Installation Restoration Program. Phase 2. Confirmation/Quantification. Stage 1. Hancock Field, New York and HQTAC, Langley AFB, Virginia

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-01

contamination resulting from previous waste disposal practices at Hancock Field .. o Recommend measures to mitigate adverse impacts at identified...best well to use in judging water quality impacts caused by the disposal activities. Slug tests (Hvorslev, 1951) were performed at each of the four... impact future samplings because this water will probably become mixed in the aquifer before the next sample round and if some remains . near the well

Installation Restoration Program. Phase 2. Confirmation/Quantification. Stage 1. Reese Air Force Base, Lubbock, Texas. Volume 2. Appendices

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-04-01

epidemiological studies ; pending resolution of essentiality in human diet; EPA has not regulated arsenic as a carcinogen in drinking water 3ICadmium B1...Probable human carcinogen based upon sufficient evidence in epidemiological studies ; not regulated as a carcinogen in drinking water because there is...Carcinogenic in animal studies ; because of the extensive negative epidemiological evidence, EPA has proposed to regu- late lead in drinking water based on

Spatial context learning approach to automatic segmentation of pleural effusion in chest computed tomography images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoor, Awais; Casas, Rafael; Linguraru, Marius G.

2016-03-01

Pleural effusion is an abnormal collection of fluid within the pleural cavity. Excessive accumulation of pleural fluid is an important bio-marker for various illnesses, including congestive heart failure, pneumonia, metastatic cancer, and pulmonary embolism. Quantification of pleural effusion can be indicative of the progression of disease as well as the effectiveness of any treatment being administered. Quantification, however, is challenging due to unpredictable amounts and density of fluid, complex topology of the pleural cavity, and the similarity in texture and intensity of pleural fluid to the surrounding tissues in computed tomography (CT) scans. Herein, we present an automated method for the segmentation of pleural effusion in CT scans based on spatial context information. The method consists of two stages: first, a probabilistic pleural effusion map is created using multi-atlas segmentation. The probabilistic map assigns a priori probabilities to the presence of pleural uid at every location in the CT scan. Second, a statistical pattern classification approach is designed to annotate pleural regions using local descriptors based on a priori probabilities, geometrical, and spatial features. Thirty seven CT scans from a diverse patient population containing confirmed cases of minimal to severe amounts of pleural effusion were used to validate the proposed segmentation method. An average Dice coefficient of 0.82685 and Hausdorff distance of 16.2155 mm was obtained.

Impact of adherence on duration of virological suppression among patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Raboud, J M; Harris, M; Rae, S; Montaner, J S G

2002-04-01

To assess the effect of adherence to antiretroviral therapy on the duration of virological suppression after controlling for whether or not the patient ever attained a plasma viral load below the limit of detection of sensitive HIV-1 RNA assays. Data were combined from three randomized, blinded clinical trials (INCAS, AVANTI-2, and AVANTI-3) that compared the antiviral effects of two- and three-drug antiretroviral regimens. Virological suppression was defined as maintaining a plasma viral load below 1000 copies/mL. Adherence was defined prospectively and measured by patient self-report. Adherence did not have a major impact on the probability of achieving virological suppression for patients receiving dual therapy. However, for patients receiving triple therapy, adherence increased the probability of virological suppression, whether the plasma viral load nadir was above or below the lower limit of quantification. Compared to adherent patients with a plasma viral load nadir below the lower limit of quantification, the relative risk of virological failure was 3.0 for non-adherent patients with a nadir below the limit, 18.1 for adherent patients with a nadir above the limit, and 32.1 for non-adherent patients with a nadir above the limit. For patients receiving current three-drug antiretroviral regimens, adherence to therapy and plasma viral load nadir are important factors determining the duration of virological suppression.

Evaluating acute medical admissions through emergency departments in Hong Kong: can one adjust for case-mix variation?

PubMed

Rainer, T H; Sollich, P; Piotrowski, T; Coolen, A C C; Cheng, B; Graham, C A

2012-12-01

Healthcare systems are under pressure to efficiently and safely reduce acute care admissions to hospital. There is a need to develop a standardised system for assessing emergency department performance which takes into account case-mix variation. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a standardised tool for assessing variations in medical admissions through emergency departments in Hong Kong. Retrospective study of patients attending emergency departments of 14 acute hospitals in Hong Kong. Data were retrieved from a centralised administrative database. Of 2,531,225 patients who attended emergency departments between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2003, 780,444 (30.8%) were admitted to medical wards. A model derived from 2001 data shows well-calibrated admission probabilities, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for probability of admission of 90.3 (95% CI ±0.11). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for 2002 and 2003 validation sets were 89.9 (95% CI ±0.11) and 89.0 (95% CI ±0.12), respectively. With an averaged benchmark, reductions in medical admissions of up to 19% could be achieved, while under the most optimistic assumption, reductions of up 36% could be achieved. A tool for benchmarking hospital medical admissions and minimising case-mix variation has been derived and validated in Hong Kong, but it requires further validation in other healthcare systems given the wide variations in admission thresholds internationally. This may be used as one potential method to evaluate the performance of emergency departments against a common standard.

New insights into galaxy structure from GALPHAT- I. Motivation, methodology and benchmarks for Sérsic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Ilsang; Weinberg, Martin D.; Katz, Neal

2011-06-01

We introduce a new galaxy image decomposition tool, GALPHAT (GALaxy PHotometric ATtributes), which is a front-end application of the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo package, to provide full posterior probability distributions and reliable confidence intervals for all model parameters. The BIE relies on GALPHAT to compute the likelihood function. GALPHAT generates scale-free cumulative image tables for the desired model family with precise error control. Interpolation of this table yields accurate pixellated images with any centre, scale and inclination angle. GALPHAT then rotates the image by position angle using a Fourier shift theorem, yielding high-speed, accurate likelihood computation. We benchmark this approach using an ensemble of simulated Sérsic model galaxies over a wide range of observational conditions: the signal-to-noise ratio S/N, the ratio of galaxy size to the point spread function (PSF) and the image size, and errors in the assumed PSF; and a range of structural parameters: the half-light radius re and the Sérsic index n. We characterize the strength of parameter covariance in the Sérsic model, which increases with S/N and n, and the results strongly motivate the need for the full posterior probability distribution in galaxy morphology analyses and later inferences. The test results for simulated galaxies successfully demonstrate that, with a careful choice of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and fast model image generation, GALPHAT is a powerful analysis tool for reliably inferring morphological parameters from a large ensemble of galaxies over a wide range of different observational conditions.

A consensus-based dynamics for market volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatelli, Lorenzo; Richmond, Peter

2004-12-01

We develop a model of trading orders based on opinion dynamics. The agents may be thought as the share holders of a major mutual fund rather than as direct traders. The balance between their buy and sell orders determines the size of the fund order (volume) and has an impact on prices and indexes. We assume agents interact simultaneously to each other through a Sznajd-like interaction. Their degree of connection is determined by the probability of changing opinion independently of what their neighbours are doing. We assume that such a probability may change randomly, after each transaction, of an amount proportional to the relative difference between the volatility then measured and a benchmark that we assume to be an exponential moving average of the past volume values. We show how this simple model is compatible with some of the main statistical features observed for the asset volumes in financial markets.

Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2016-07-01

Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover, generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.

Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chakraborty, Souvik, E-mail: csouvik41@gmail.com; Chowdhury, Rajib, E-mail: rajibfce@iitr.ac.in

Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover,more » generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.« less

Distinguishing cause from correlation in tokamak experiments to trigger edge-localised plasma instabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webster, Anthony J.; CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB

2014-11-15

The generic question is considered: How can we determine the probability of an otherwise quasi-random event, having been triggered by an external influence? A specific problem is the quantification of the success of techniques to trigger, and hence control, edge-localised plasma instabilities (ELMs) in magnetically confined fusion (MCF) experiments. The development of such techniques is essential to ensure tolerable heat loads on components in large MCF fusion devices, and is necessary for their development into economically successful power plants. Bayesian probability theory is used to rigorously formulate the problem and to provide a formal solution. Accurate but pragmatic methods aremore » developed to estimate triggering probabilities, and are illustrated with experimental data. These allow results from experiments to be quantitatively assessed, and rigorously quantified conclusions to be formed. Example applications include assessing whether triggering of ELMs is a statistical or deterministic process, and the establishment of thresholds to ensure that ELMs are reliably triggered.« less

Probability Distributions for Random Quantum Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Kevin

Motivated by uncertainty quantification and inference of quantum information systems, in this work we draw connections between the notions of random quantum states and operations in quantum information with probability distributions commonly encountered in the field of orientation statistics. This approach identifies natural sample spaces and probability distributions upon these spaces that can be used in the analysis, simulation, and inference of quantum information systems. The theory of exponential families on Stiefel manifolds provides the appropriate generalization to the classical case. Furthermore, this viewpoint motivates a number of additional questions into the convex geometry of quantum operations relative to both the differential geometry of Stiefel manifolds as well as the information geometry of exponential families defined upon them. In particular, we draw on results from convex geometry to characterize which quantum operations can be represented as the average of a random quantum operation. This project was supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity via Department of Interior National Business Center Contract Number 2012-12050800010.

A novel approach to estimate the eruptive potential and probability in open conduit volcanoes

PubMed Central

De Gregorio, Sofia; Camarda, Marco

2016-01-01

In open conduit volcanoes, volatile-rich magma continuously enters into the feeding system nevertheless the eruptive activity occurs intermittently. From a practical perspective, the continuous steady input of magma in the feeding system is not able to produce eruptive events alone, but rather surplus of magma inputs are required to trigger the eruptive activity. The greater the amount of surplus of magma within the feeding system, the higher is the eruptive probability.Despite this observation, eruptive potential evaluations are commonly based on the regular magma supply, and in eruptive probability evaluations, generally any magma input has the same weight. Conversely, herein we present a novel approach based on the quantification of surplus of magma progressively intruded in the feeding system. To quantify the surplus of magma, we suggest to process temporal series of measurable parameters linked to the magma supply. We successfully performed a practical application on Mt Etna using the soil CO2 flux recorded over ten years. PMID:27456812

A novel approach to estimate the eruptive potential and probability in open conduit volcanoes.

PubMed

De Gregorio, Sofia; Camarda, Marco

2016-07-26

In open conduit volcanoes, volatile-rich magma continuously enters into the feeding system nevertheless the eruptive activity occurs intermittently. From a practical perspective, the continuous steady input of magma in the feeding system is not able to produce eruptive events alone, but rather surplus of magma inputs are required to trigger the eruptive activity. The greater the amount of surplus of magma within the feeding system, the higher is the eruptive probability.Despite this observation, eruptive potential evaluations are commonly based on the regular magma supply, and in eruptive probability evaluations, generally any magma input has the same weight. Conversely, herein we present a novel approach based on the quantification of surplus of magma progressively intruded in the feeding system. To quantify the surplus of magma, we suggest to process temporal series of measurable parameters linked to the magma supply. We successfully performed a practical application on Mt Etna using the soil CO2 flux recorded over ten years.

Saliency Detection via Absorbing Markov Chain With Learnt Transition Probability.

PubMed

Lihe Zhang; Jianwu Ai; Bowen Jiang; Huchuan Lu; Xiukui Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency model based on absorbing Markov chain (AMC). First, a sparsely connected graph is constructed to capture the local context information of each node. All image boundary nodes and other nodes are, respectively, treated as the absorbing nodes and transient nodes in the absorbing Markov chain. Then, the expected number of times from each transient node to all other transient nodes can be used to represent the saliency value of this node. The absorbed time depends on the weights on the path and their spatial coordinates, which are completely encoded in the transition probability matrix. Considering the importance of this matrix, we adopt different hierarchies of deep features extracted from fully convolutional networks and learn a transition probability matrix, which is called learnt transition probability matrix. Although the performance is significantly promoted, salient objects are not uniformly highlighted very well. To solve this problem, an angular embedding technique is investigated to refine the saliency results. Based on pairwise local orderings, which are produced by the saliency maps of AMC and boundary maps, we rearrange the global orderings (saliency value) of all nodes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six publicly available benchmark data sets.

A new symmetrical quasi-classical model for electronically non-adiabatic processes: Application to the case of weak non-adiabatic coupling

DOE PAGES

Cotton, Stephen J.; Miller, William H.

2016-10-14

Previous work has shown how a symmetrical quasi-classical (SQC) windowing procedure can be used to quantize the initial and final electronic degrees of freedom in the Meyer-Miller (MM) classical vibronic (i.e, nuclear + electronic) Hamiltonian, and that the approach provides a very good description of electronically non-adiabatic processes within a standard classical molecular dynamics framework for a number of benchmark problems. This study explores application of the SQC/MM approach to the case of very weak non-adiabatic coupling between the electronic states, showing (as anticipated) how the standard SQC/MM approach used to date fails in this limit, and then devises amore » new SQC windowing scheme to deal with it. Finally, application of this new SQC model to a variety of realistic benchmark systems shows that the new model not only treats the weak coupling case extremely well, but it is also seen to describe the “normal” regime (of electronic transition probabilities ≳ 0.1) even more accurately than the previous “standard” model.« less

A new symmetrical quasi-classical model for electronically non-adiabatic processes: Application to the case of weak non-adiabatic coupling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cotton, Stephen J.; Miller, William H.

Previous work has shown how a symmetrical quasi-classical (SQC) windowing procedure can be used to quantize the initial and final electronic degrees of freedom in the Meyer-Miller (MM) classical vibronic (i.e, nuclear + electronic) Hamiltonian, and that the approach provides a very good description of electronically non-adiabatic processes within a standard classical molecular dynamics framework for a number of benchmark problems. This study explores application of the SQC/MM approach to the case of very weak non-adiabatic coupling between the electronic states, showing (as anticipated) how the standard SQC/MM approach used to date fails in this limit, and then devises amore » new SQC windowing scheme to deal with it. Finally, application of this new SQC model to a variety of realistic benchmark systems shows that the new model not only treats the weak coupling case extremely well, but it is also seen to describe the “normal” regime (of electronic transition probabilities ≳ 0.1) even more accurately than the previous “standard” model.« less

Access to specialist gastroenterology care in Canada: Comparison of wait times and consensus targets

PubMed Central

Leddin, Desmond; Armstrong, David; Barkun, Alan NG; Chen, Ying; Daniels, Sandra; Hollingworth, Roger; Hunt, Richard H; Paterson, William G

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Monitoring wait times and defining targets for care have been advocated to improve health care delivery related to cancer, heart, diagnostic imaging, joint replacements and sight restoration. There are few data on access to care for digestive diseases, although they pose a greater economic burden than cancer or heart disease in Canada. The present study compared wait times for specialist gastroenterology care with recent, evidence-based, consensus-defined benchmark wait times for a range of digestive diseases. METHODS: Total wait times from primary care referral to investigation were measured for seven digestive disease indications by using the Practice Audit in Gastroenterology program, and were benchmarked against consensus recommendations. RESULTS: Total wait times for 1903 patients who were undergoing investigation exceeded targets for those with probable cancer (median 26 days [25th to 75th percentiles eight to 56 days] versus target of two weeks); probable inflammatory bowel disease (101 days [35 to 209 days] versus two weeks); documented iron deficiency anemia (71 days [19 to 142 days] versus two months); positive fecal occult blood test (73 days [36 to 148 days] versus two months); dyspepsia with alarm symptoms (60 days [23 to 140 days] versus two months); refractory dyspepsia without alarm symptoms (126 days [42 to 225 days] versus two months); and chronic constipation and diarrhea (141 days [68 to 264 days] versus two months). A minority of patients were seen within target times: probable cancer (33% [95% CI 20% to 47%]); probable inflammatory bowel disease (12% [95% CI 1% to 23%]); iron deficiency anemia (46% [95% CI 37% to 55%]); positive occult blood test (41% [95% CI 28% to 54%]); dyspepsia with alarm symptoms (51% [95% CI 41% to 60%]); refractory dyspepsia without alarm symptoms (33% [95% CI 19% to 47%]); and chronic constipation and diarrhea (21% [95% CI 14% to 29%]). DISCUSSION: Total wait times for the seven indications exceeded the consensus targets; 51% to 88% of patients were not seen within the target wait time. Multiple interventions, including adoption of evidence-based management guidelines and provision of economic and human resources, are needed to ensure appropriate access to digestive health care in Canada. Outcomes can be evaluated by the ‘point-of-care’, practice audit methodology used for the present study. PMID:18299735

In situ spectroradiometric quantification of ERTS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yost, E. (Principal Investigator)

1972-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Additive color photographic analysis of ERTS-1 multispectral imagery indicates that the presence of soil moisture in playas (desert dry lakes) can be readily detected from space. Time sequence additive color presentations in which 600-700 nm bands taken at three successive 18-day cycles show that changes in soil moisture of playas with time can be detected as unique color signatures and can probably be quantitatively measured using photographic images of multispectral scanner data.

Installation Restoration Program Phase 2. Confirmation/Quantification Stage 2. Bulk Fuel Storage Area Fuel Spill Investigation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-10-01

discharged from these wells was containerized and transported to the base oil separator plant for treatment. It is estimated that approximately 25 percent...and 29). The fly ash is probably associated with the power plant tc the west of the Bulk Fuel Storage Area. Just below the fill, at 13 to 15 feet, is...been widely used in petroleum refineries and fuel terminals in response to similar spill impact situations. Although the collect ion/recov- ery

Simple techniques for improving deep neural network outcomes on commodity hardware

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colina, Nicholas Christopher A.; Perez, Carlos E.; Paraan, Francis N. C.

2017-08-01

We benchmark improvements in the performance of deep neural networks (DNN) on the MNIST data test upon imple-menting two simple modifications to the algorithm that have little overhead computational cost. First is GPU parallelization on a commodity graphics card, and second is initializing the DNN with random orthogonal weight matrices prior to optimization. Eigenspectra analysis of the weight matrices reveal that the initially orthogonal matrices remain nearly orthogonal after training. The probability distributions from which these orthogonal matrices are drawn are also shown to significantly affect the performance of these deep neural networks.

Efficiency of exchange schemes in replica exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingenheil, Martin; Denschlag, Robert; Mathias, Gerald; Tavan, Paul

2009-08-01

In replica exchange simulations a fast diffusion of the replicas through the temperature space maximizes the efficiency of the statistical sampling. Here, we compare the diffusion speed as measured by the round trip rates for four exchange algorithms. We find different efficiency profiles with optimal average acceptance probabilities ranging from 8% to 41%. The best performance is determined by benchmark simulations for the most widely used algorithm, which alternately tries to exchange all even and all odd replica pairs. By analytical mathematics we show that the excellent performance of this exchange scheme is due to the high diffusivity of the underlying random walk.

Properties of 5052 Aluminum For Use as Honeycomb Core in Manned Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerch, Bradley A.

2018-01-01

This work explains that the properties of Al 5052 material used commonly for honeycomb cores in sandwich panels are highly dependent on the tempering condition. It has not been common to specify the temper when ordering HC material nor is it common for the supplier to state what the temper is. For aerospace uses, a temper of H38 or H39 is probably recommended. This temper should be stated in the bill of material and should be verified upon receipt of the core. To this end some properties provided herein can aid as benchmark values.

Robust high-resolution quantification of time signals encoded by in vivo magnetic resonance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkić, Dževad; Belkić, Karen

2018-01-01

This paper on molecular imaging emphasizes improving specificity of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) for early cancer diagnostics by high-resolution data analysis. Sensitivity of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is excellent, but specificity is insufficient. Specificity is improved with MRS by going beyond morphology to assess the biochemical content of tissue. This is contingent upon accurate data quantification of diagnostically relevant biomolecules. Quantification is spectral analysis which reconstructs chemical shifts, amplitudes and relaxation times of metabolites. Chemical shifts inform on electronic shielding of resonating nuclei bound to different molecular compounds. Oscillation amplitudes in time signals retrieve the abundance of MR sensitive nuclei whose number is proportional to metabolite concentrations. Transverse relaxation times, the reciprocal of decay probabilities of resonances, arise from spin-spin coupling and reflect local field inhomogeneities. In MRS single voxels are used. For volumetric coverage, multi-voxels are employed within a hybrid of MRS and MRI called magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI). Common to MRS and MRSI is encoding of time signals and subsequent spectral analysis. Encoded data do not provide direct clinical information. Spectral analysis of time signals can yield the quantitative information, of which metabolite concentrations are the most clinically important. This information is equivocal with standard data analysis through the non-parametric, low-resolution fast Fourier transform and post-processing via fitting. By applying the fast Padé transform (FPT) with high-resolution, noise suppression and exact quantification via quantum mechanical signal processing, advances are made, presented herein, focusing on four areas of critical public health importance: brain, prostate, breast and ovarian cancers.

Microstructural Quantification, Property Prediction, and Stochastic Reconstruction of Heterogeneous Materials Using Limited X-Ray Tomography Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hechao

An accurate knowledge of the complex microstructure of a heterogeneous material is crucial for quantitative structure-property relations establishment and its performance prediction and optimization. X-ray tomography has provided a non-destructive means for microstructure characterization in both 3D and 4D (i.e., structural evolution over time). Traditional reconstruction algorithms like filtered-back-projection (FBP) method or algebraic reconstruction techniques (ART) require huge number of tomographic projections and segmentation process before conducting microstructural quantification. This can be quite time consuming and computationally intensive. In this thesis, a novel procedure is first presented that allows one to directly extract key structural information in forms of spatial correlation functions from limited x-ray tomography data. The key component of the procedure is the computation of a "probability map", which provides the probability of an arbitrary point in the material system belonging to specific phase. The correlation functions of interest are then readily computed from the probability map. Using effective medium theory, accurate predictions of physical properties (e.g., elastic moduli) can be obtained. Secondly, a stochastic optimization procedure that enables one to accurately reconstruct material microstructure from a small number of x-ray tomographic projections (e.g., 20 - 40) is presented. Moreover, a stochastic procedure for multi-modal data fusion is proposed, where both X-ray projections and correlation functions computed from limited 2D optical images are fused to accurately reconstruct complex heterogeneous materials in 3D. This multi-modal reconstruction algorithm is proved to be able to integrate the complementary data to perform an excellent optimization procedure, which indicates its high efficiency in using limited structural information. Finally, the accuracy of the stochastic reconstruction procedure using limited X-ray projection data is ascertained by analyzing the microstructural degeneracy and the roughness of energy landscape associated with different number of projections. Ground-state degeneracy of a microstructure is found to decrease with increasing number of projections, which indicates a higher probability that the reconstructed configurations match the actual microstructure. The roughness of energy landscape can also provide information about the complexity and convergence behavior of the reconstruction for given microstructures and projection number.

Clinical review: improving the measurement of serum thyroglobulin with mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Hoofnagle, Andrew N; Roth, Mara Y

2013-04-01

Serum thyroglobulin (Tg) measurements are central to the management of patients treated for differentiated thyroid carcinoma. For decades, Tg measurements have relied on methods that are subject to interference by commonly found substances in human serum and plasma, such as Tg autoantibodies. As a result, many patients need additional imaging studies to rule out cancer persistence or recurrence that could be avoided with more sensitive and specific testing methods. The aims of this review are to: 1) briefly review the interferences common to Tg immunoassays; 2) introduce readers to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry as a method for quantifying proteins in human serum/plasma; and 3) discuss the potential benefits and limitations of the method in the quantification of serum Tg. Mass spectrometric methods have traditionally lacked the sensitivity, robustness, and throughput to be useful clinical assays. These methods failed to meet the necessary clinical benchmarks due to the nature of the mass spectrometry workflow and instrumentation. Over the past few years, there have been major advances in reagents, automation, and instrumentation for the quantification of proteins using mass spectrometry. More recently, methods using mass spectrometry to detect and quantify Tg have been developed and are of sufficient quality to be used in the management of patients. Novel serum Tg assays that use mass spectrometry may avoid the issue of autoantibody interference and other problems with currently available immunoassays for Tg. Prospective studies are needed to fully understand the potential benefits of novel Tg assays to patients and care providers.

Cross-recurrence quantification analysis of categorical and continuous time series: an R package

PubMed Central

Coco, Moreno I.; Dale, Rick

2014-01-01

This paper describes the R package crqa to perform cross-recurrence quantification analysis of two time series of either a categorical or continuous nature. Streams of behavioral information, from eye movements to linguistic elements, unfold over time. When two people interact, such as in conversation, they often adapt to each other, leading these behavioral levels to exhibit recurrent states. In dialog, for example, interlocutors adapt to each other by exchanging interactive cues: smiles, nods, gestures, choice of words, and so on. In order for us to capture closely the goings-on of dynamic interaction, and uncover the extent of coupling between two individuals, we need to quantify how much recurrence is taking place at these levels. Methods available in crqa would allow researchers in cognitive science to pose such questions as how much are two people recurrent at some level of analysis, what is the characteristic lag time for one person to maximally match another, or whether one person is leading another. First, we set the theoretical ground to understand the difference between “correlation” and “co-visitation” when comparing two time series, using an aggregative or cross-recurrence approach. Then, we describe more formally the principles of cross-recurrence, and show with the current package how to carry out analyses applying them. We end the paper by comparing computational efficiency, and results’ consistency, of crqa R package, with the benchmark MATLAB toolbox crptoolbox (Marwan, 2013). We show perfect comparability between the two libraries on both levels. PMID:25018736

Performance of thigh-mounted triaxial accelerometer algorithms in objective quantification of sedentary behaviour and physical activity in older adults

PubMed Central

Verschueren, Sabine M. P.; Degens, Hans; Morse, Christopher I.; Onambélé, Gladys L.

2017-01-01

Accurate monitoring of sedentary behaviour and physical activity is key to investigate their exact role in healthy ageing. To date, accelerometers using cut-off point models are most preferred for this, however, machine learning seems a highly promising future alternative. Hence, the current study compared between cut-off point and machine learning algorithms, for optimal quantification of sedentary behaviour and physical activity intensities in the elderly. Thus, in a heterogeneous sample of forty participants (aged ≥60 years, 50% female) energy expenditure during laboratory-based activities (ranging from sedentary behaviour through to moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) was estimated by indirect calorimetry, whilst wearing triaxial thigh-mounted accelerometers. Three cut-off point algorithms and a Random Forest machine learning model were developed and cross-validated using the collected data. Detailed analyses were performed to check algorithm robustness, and examine and benchmark both overall and participant-specific balanced accuracies. This revealed that the four models can at least be used to confidently monitor sedentary behaviour and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Nevertheless, the machine learning algorithm outperformed the cut-off point models by being robust for all individual’s physiological and non-physiological characteristics and showing more performance of an acceptable level over the whole range of physical activity intensities. Therefore, we propose that Random Forest machine learning may be optimal for objective assessment of sedentary behaviour and physical activity in older adults using thigh-mounted triaxial accelerometry. PMID:29155839

Methane Leak Detection and Emissions Quantification with UAVs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barchyn, T.; Fox, T. A.; Hugenholtz, C.

2016-12-01

Robust leak detection and emissions quantification algorithms are required to accurately monitor greenhouse gas emissions. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, `drones') could both reduce the cost and increase the accuracy of monitoring programs. However, aspects of the platform create unique challenges. UAVs typically collect large volumes of data that are close to source (due to limited range) and often lower quality (due to weight restrictions on sensors). Here we discuss algorithm development for (i) finding sources of unknown position (`leak detection') and (ii) quantifying emissions from a source of known position. We use data from a simulated leak and field study in Alberta, Canada. First, we detail a method for localizing a leak of unknown spatial location using iterative fits against a forward Gaussian plume model. We explore sources of uncertainty, both inherent to the method and operational. Results suggest this method is primarily constrained by accurate wind direction data, distance downwind from source, and the non-Gaussian shape of close range plumes. Second, we examine sources of uncertainty in quantifying emissions with the mass balance method. Results suggest precision is constrained by flux plane interpolation errors and time offsets between spatially adjacent measurements. Drones can provide data closer to the ground than piloted aircraft, but large portions of the plume are still unquantified. Together, we find that despite larger volumes of data, working with close range plumes as measured with UAVs is inherently difficult. We describe future efforts to mitigate these challenges and work towards more robust benchmarking for application in industrial and regulatory settings.

Performance of thigh-mounted triaxial accelerometer algorithms in objective quantification of sedentary behaviour and physical activity in older adults.

PubMed

Wullems, Jorgen A; Verschueren, Sabine M P; Degens, Hans; Morse, Christopher I; Onambélé, Gladys L

2017-01-01

Accurate monitoring of sedentary behaviour and physical activity is key to investigate their exact role in healthy ageing. To date, accelerometers using cut-off point models are most preferred for this, however, machine learning seems a highly promising future alternative. Hence, the current study compared between cut-off point and machine learning algorithms, for optimal quantification of sedentary behaviour and physical activity intensities in the elderly. Thus, in a heterogeneous sample of forty participants (aged ≥60 years, 50% female) energy expenditure during laboratory-based activities (ranging from sedentary behaviour through to moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) was estimated by indirect calorimetry, whilst wearing triaxial thigh-mounted accelerometers. Three cut-off point algorithms and a Random Forest machine learning model were developed and cross-validated using the collected data. Detailed analyses were performed to check algorithm robustness, and examine and benchmark both overall and participant-specific balanced accuracies. This revealed that the four models can at least be used to confidently monitor sedentary behaviour and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Nevertheless, the machine learning algorithm outperformed the cut-off point models by being robust for all individual's physiological and non-physiological characteristics and showing more performance of an acceptable level over the whole range of physical activity intensities. Therefore, we propose that Random Forest machine learning may be optimal for objective assessment of sedentary behaviour and physical activity in older adults using thigh-mounted triaxial accelerometry.

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadini, A.; Bevilacqua, A.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bisson, M.; Isaia, R.; Mazzarini, F.; Valentine, G. A.; Vitale, S.; Baxter, P. J.; Bertagnini, A.; Cerminara, M.; de Michieli Vitturi, M.; Di Roberto, A.; Engwell, S.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Flandoli, F.; Pistolesi, M.

2017-06-01

In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a structured expert judgment to produce a first long-term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialize (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through (i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets and (ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these data sets were quantified explicitly with expert judgments and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics and subgroupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that (a) Somma-Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; (b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; (c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium-large eruption will enlarge the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera, and (d) there is a nonnegligible probability (mean value of 6-10%) that the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera.

A risk assessment method for multi-site damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry Russell, Jr.

This research focused on developing probabilistic methods suitable for computing small probabilities of failure, e.g., 10sp{-6}, of structures subject to multi-site damage (MSD). MSD is defined as the simultaneous development of fatigue cracks at multiple sites in the same structural element such that the fatigue cracks may coalesce to form one large crack. MSD is modeled as an array of collinear cracks with random initial crack lengths with the centers of the initial cracks spaced uniformly apart. The data used was chosen to be representative of aluminum structures. The structure is considered failed whenever any two adjacent cracks link up. A fatigue computer model is developed that can accurately and efficiently grow a collinear array of arbitrary length cracks from initial size until failure. An algorithm is developed to compute the stress intensity factors of all cracks considering all interaction effects. The probability of failure of two to 100 cracks is studied. Lower bounds on the probability of failure are developed based upon the probability of the largest crack exceeding a critical crack size. The critical crack size is based on the initial crack size that will grow across the ligament when the neighboring crack has zero length. The probability is evaluated using extreme value theory. An upper bound is based on the probability of the maximum sum of initial cracks being greater than a critical crack size. A weakest link sampling approach is developed that can accurately and efficiently compute small probabilities of failure. This methodology is based on predicting the weakest link, i.e., the two cracks to link up first, for a realization of initial crack sizes, and computing the cycles-to-failure using these two cracks. Criteria to determine the weakest link are discussed. Probability results using the weakest link sampling method are compared to Monte Carlo-based benchmark results. The results indicate that very small probabilities can be computed accurately in a few minutes using a Hewlett-Packard workstation.

Generation of monoclonal pan-hemagglutinin antibodies for the quantification of multiple strains of influenza

PubMed Central

Zou, Wei; Marcil, Anne; Paquet, Eric; Gadoury, Christine; Jaentschke, Bozena; Li, Xuguang; Petiot, Emma; Durocher, Yves; Baardsnes, Jason; Rosa-Calatrava, Manuel; Ansorge, Sven; Kamen, Amine A.

2017-01-01

Vaccination is the most effective course of action to prevent influenza. About 150 million doses of influenza vaccines were distributed for the 2015–2016 season in the USA alone according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Vaccine dosage is calculated based on the concentration of hemagglutinin (HA), the main surface glycoprotein expressed by influenza which varies from strain to strain. Therefore yearly-updated strain-specific antibodies and calibrating antigens are required. Preparing these quantification reagents can take up to three months and significantly slows down the release of new vaccine lots. Therefore, to circumvent the need for strain-specific sera, two anti-HA monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against a highly conserved sequence have been produced by immunizing mice with a novel peptide-conjugate. Immunoblots demonstrate that 40 strains of influenza encompassing HA subtypes H1 to H13, as well as B strains from the Yamagata and Victoria lineage were detected when the two mAbs are combined to from a pan-HA mAb cocktail. Quantification using this pan-HA mAbs cocktail was achieved in a dot blot assay and results correlated with concentrations measured in a hemagglutination assay with a coefficient of correlation of 0.80. A competitive ELISA was also optimised with purified viral-like particles. Regardless of the quantification method used, pan-HA antibodies can be employed to accelerate process development when strain-specific antibodies are not available, and represent a valuable tool in case of pandemics. These antibodies were also expressed in CHO cells to facilitate large-scale production using bioreactor technologies which might be required to meet industrial needs for quantification reagents. Finally, a simulation model was created to predict the binding affinity of the two anti-HA antibodies to the amino acids composing the highly conserved epitope; different probabilities of interaction between a given amino acid and the antibodies might explain the affinity of each antibody against different influenza strains. PMID:28662134

DNA Identification of Skeletal Remains from World War II Mass Graves Uncovered in Slovenia

PubMed Central

Marjanović, Damir; Durmić-Pašić, Adaleta; Bakal, Narcisa; Haverić, Sanin; Kalamujić, Belma; Kovačević, Lejla; Ramić, Jasmin; Pojskić, Naris; Škaro, Vedrana; Projić, Petar; Bajrović, Kasim; Hadžiselimović, Rifat; Drobnič, Katja; Huffine, Ed; Davoren, Jon; Primorac, Dragan

2007-01-01

Aim To present the joint effort of three institutions in the identification of human remains from the World War II found in two mass graves in the area of Škofja Loka, Slovenia. Methods The remains of 27 individuals were found in two small and closely located mass graves. The DNA was isolated from bone and teeth samples using either standard phenol/chloroform alcohol extraction or optimized Qiagen DNA extraction procedure. Some recovered samples required the employment of additional DNA purification methods, such as N-buthanol treatment. QuantifilerTM Human DNA Quantification Kit was used for DNA quantification. PowerPlex 16 kit was used to simultaneously amplify 15 short tandem repeat (STR) loci. Matching probabilities were estimated using the DNA View program. Results Out of all processed samples, 15 remains were fully profiled at all 15 STR loci. The other 12 profiles were partial. The least successful profile included 13 loci. Also, 69 referent samples (buccal swabs) from potential living relatives were collected and profiled. Comparison of victims' profile against referent samples database resulted in 4 strong matches. In addition, 5 other profiles were matched to certain referent samples with lower probability. Conclusion Our results show that more than 6 decades after the end of the World War II, DNA analysis may significantly contribute to the identification of the remains from that period. Additional analysis of Y-STRs and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers will be performed in the second phase of the identification project. PMID:17696306

Optimal Information Processing in Biochemical Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiggins, Chris

2012-02-01

A variety of experimental results over the past decades provide examples of near-optimal information processing in biological networks, including in biochemical and transcriptional regulatory networks. Computing information-theoretic quantities requires first choosing or computing the joint probability distribution describing multiple nodes in such a network --- for example, representing the probability distribution of finding an integer copy number of each of two interacting reactants or gene products while respecting the `intrinsic' small copy number noise constraining information transmission at the scale of the cell. I'll given an overview of some recent analytic and numerical work facilitating calculation of such joint distributions and the associated information, which in turn makes possible numerical optimization of information flow in models of noisy regulatory and biochemical networks. Illustrating cases include quantification of form-function relations, ideal design of regulatory cascades, and response to oscillatory driving.

The use of a national transplant registry to benchmark transplant outcome for patients undergoing autologous and allogeneic stem cell transplantation in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

PubMed

Russell, N H; Szydlo, R; McCann, S; Potter, M N; Craddock, C; Towlson, K; Apperley, J F

2004-02-01

As part of its clinical governance programme the British Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (BSBMT) undertook an analysis of transplant outcome for adults undergoing human leucocyte antigen - identical sibling allogeneic transplantation for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) in first chronic phase (CP1) or autologous transplantation for Hodgkin's disease (HD). The study aimed to compare transplant-related mortality (TRM) and survival for patients reported to the BSBMT with patients transplanted in the rest of Europe, reported to the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT). The outcomes for 104 allogeneic transplants for CML in 24 UK/Irish centres were compared with 775 allografts in 145 other European centres. For HD, 241 autografts from 38 UK/Irish centres were compared with 1145 transplants in 239 other European centres. For both diseases, the cohorts were broadly matched with the exception of CML, where 85% of patients were transplanted <1 year from diagnosis in the UK/Ireland compared with 68% in the EBMT (P = 0.001). Cox regression analysis was undertaken using known delineated variables affecting transplant outcome in addition to the registry of origin. The adjusted survival curves for CML showed no significant differences between the two groups, with 3-year survival probabilities of 70.2% and 67.1% for the EBMT and BSBMT cohorts respectively. Likewise, the analysis for HD showed overlapping survival curves, with 3-year survival probabilities of 71.8% (EBMT) and 70.8% (BSBMT). TRM was not statistically different in either disease. This study demonstrates the potential for using national registries to benchmark transplant outcome against the EBMT registry.

Estimation of dimensions and orientation of multiple riverine dune generations using spectral moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisimenka, Aliaksandr; Kubicki, Adam

2017-02-01

A new spectral analysis technique is proposed for rhythmic bedform quantification, based on the 2D Fourier transform involving the calculation of a set of low-order spectral moments. The approach provides a tool for efficient quantification of bedform length and height as well as spatial crest-line alignment. Contrary to the conventional method, it not only describes the most energetic component of an undulating seabed surface but also retrieves information on its secondary structure without application of any band-pass filter of which the upper and lower cut-off frequencies are a priori unknown. Validation is based on bathymetric data collected in the main Vistula River mouth area (Przekop Wisły), Poland. This revealed two generations (distinct groups) of dunes which are migrating seawards along distinct paths, probably related to the hydrological regime of the river. The data enable the identification of dune divergence and convergence zones. The approach proved successful in the parameterisation of topographic roughness, an essential aspect in numerical modelling studies.

Comparison of the efficiency between two sampling plans for aflatoxins analysis in maize

PubMed Central

Mallmann, Adriano Olnei; Marchioro, Alexandro; Oliveira, Maurício Schneider; Rauber, Ricardo Hummes; Dilkin, Paulo; Mallmann, Carlos Augusto

2014-01-01

Variance and performance of two sampling plans for aflatoxins quantification in maize were evaluated. Eight lots of maize were sampled using two plans: manual, using sampling spear for kernels; and automatic, using a continuous flow to collect milled maize. Total variance and sampling, preparation, and analysis variance were determined and compared between plans through multifactor analysis of variance. Four theoretical distribution models were used to compare aflatoxins quantification distributions in eight maize lots. The acceptance and rejection probabilities for a lot under certain aflatoxin concentration were determined using variance and the information on the selected distribution model to build the operational characteristic curves (OC). Sampling and total variance were lower at the automatic plan. The OC curve from the automatic plan reduced both consumer and producer risks in comparison to the manual plan. The automatic plan is more efficient than the manual one because it expresses more accurately the real aflatoxin contamination in maize. PMID:24948911

Subsurface characterization with localized ensemble Kalman filter employing adaptive thresholding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delijani, Ebrahim Biniaz; Pishvaie, Mahmoud Reza; Boozarjomehry, Ramin Bozorgmehry

2014-07-01

Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF, as a Monte Carlo sequential data assimilation method has emerged promisingly for subsurface media characterization during past decade. Due to high computational cost of large ensemble size, EnKF is limited to small ensemble set in practice. This results in appearance of spurious correlation in covariance structure leading to incorrect or probable divergence of updated realizations. In this paper, a universal/adaptive thresholding method is presented to remove and/or mitigate spurious correlation problem in the forecast covariance matrix. This method is, then, extended to regularize Kalman gain directly. Four different thresholding functions have been considered to threshold forecast covariance and gain matrices. These include hard, soft, lasso and Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD) functions. Three benchmarks are used to evaluate the performances of these methods. These benchmarks include a small 1D linear model and two 2D water flooding (in petroleum reservoirs) cases whose levels of heterogeneity/nonlinearity are different. It should be noted that beside the adaptive thresholding, the standard distance dependant localization and bootstrap Kalman gain are also implemented for comparison purposes. We assessed each setup with different ensemble sets to investigate the sensitivity of each method on ensemble size. The results indicate that thresholding of forecast covariance yields more reliable performance than Kalman gain. Among thresholding function, SCAD is more robust for both covariance and gain estimation. Our analyses emphasize that not all assimilation cycles do require thresholding and it should be performed wisely during the early assimilation cycles. The proposed scheme of adaptive thresholding outperforms other methods for subsurface characterization of underlying benchmarks.

Development and Application of Explicitly Correlated Wave Function Based Methods for the Investigation of Optical Properties of Semiconductor Nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elward, Jennifer Mary

Semiconductor nanoparticles, or quantum dots (QDs), are well known to have very unique optical and electronic properties. These properties can be controlled and tailored as a function of several influential factors, including but not limited to the particle size and shape, effect of composition and heterojunction as well as the effect of ligand on the particle surface. This customizable nature leads to extensive experimental and theoretical research on the capabilities of these quantum dots for many application purposes. However, in order to be able to understand and thus further the development of these materials, one must first understand the fundamental interaction within these nanoparticles. In this thesis, I have developed a theoretical method which is called electron-hole explicitly correlated Hartee-Fock (eh-XCHF). It is a variational method for solving the electron-hole Schrodinger equation and has been used in this work to study electron-hole interaction in semiconductor quantum dots. The method was benchmarked with respect to a parabolic quantum dot system, and ground state energy and electron-hole recombination probability were computed. Both of these properties were found to be in good agreement with expected results. Upon successful benchmarking, I have applied the eh-XCHF method to study optical properties of several quantum dot systems including the effect of dot size on exciton binding energy and recombination probability in a CdSe quantum dot, the effect of shape on a CdSe quantum dot, the effect of heterojunction on a CdSe/ZnS quantum dot and the effect of quantum dot-biomolecule interaction within a CdSe-firefly Luciferase protein conjugate system. As metrics for assessing the effect of these influencers on the electron-hole interaction, the exciton binding energy, electron-hole recombination probability and the average electron-hole separation distance have been computed. These excitonic properties have been found to be strongly infuenced by the changing composition of the particle. It has also been found through this work that the explicitly correlated method performs very well when computing these properties as it provides a feasible computational route to compare to both experimental and other theoretical results.

Nonprobability Web Surveys to Measure Sexual Behaviors and Attitudes in the General Population: A Comparison With a Probability Sample Interview Survey

PubMed Central

Burkill, Sarah; Couper, Mick P; Conrad, Frederick; Clifton, Soazig; Tanton, Clare; Phelps, Andrew; Datta, Jessica; Mercer, Catherine H; Sonnenberg, Pam; Prah, Philip; Mitchell, Kirstin R; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M; Copas, Andrew J

2014-01-01

Background Nonprobability Web surveys using volunteer panels can provide a relatively cheap and quick alternative to traditional health and epidemiological surveys. However, concerns have been raised about their representativeness. Objective The aim was to compare results from different Web panels with a population-based probability sample survey (n=8969 aged 18-44 years) that used computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) for sensitive behaviors, the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3). Methods Natsal-3 questions were included on 4 nonprobability Web panel surveys (n=2000 to 2099), 2 using basic quotas based on age and sex, and 2 using modified quotas based on additional variables related to key estimates. Results for sociodemographic characteristics were compared with external benchmarks and for sexual behaviors and opinions with Natsal-3. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to express differences between the benchmark data and each survey for each variable of interest. A summary measure of survey performance was the average absolute OR across variables. Another summary measure was the number of key estimates for which the survey differed significantly (at the 5% level) from the benchmarks. Results For sociodemographic variables, the Web surveys were less representative of the general population than Natsal-3. For example, for men, the average absolute OR for Natsal-3 was 1.14, whereas for the Web surveys the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.86 to 2.30. For all Web surveys, approximately two-thirds of the key estimates of sexual behaviors were different from Natsal-3 and the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.32 to 1.98. Differences were appreciable even for questions asked by CASI in Natsal-3. No single Web survey performed consistently better than any other did. Modified quotas slightly improved results for men, but not for women. Conclusions Consistent with studies from other countries on less sensitive topics, volunteer Web panels provided appreciably biased estimates. The differences seen with Natsal-3 CASI questions, where mode effects may be similar, suggest a selection bias in the Web surveys. The use of more complex quotas may lead to some improvement, but many estimates are still likely to differ. Volunteer Web panels are not recommended if accurate prevalence estimates for the general population are a key objective. PMID:25488851

Towards machine learned quality control: A benchmark for sharpness quantification in digital pathology.

PubMed

Campanella, Gabriele; Rajanna, Arjun R; Corsale, Lorraine; Schüffler, Peter J; Yagi, Yukako; Fuchs, Thomas J

2018-04-01

Pathology is on the verge of a profound change from an analog and qualitative to a digital and quantitative discipline. This change is mostly driven by the high-throughput scanning of microscope slides in modern pathology departments, reaching tens of thousands of digital slides per month. The resulting vast digital archives form the basis of clinical use in digital pathology and allow large scale machine learning in computational pathology. One of the most crucial bottlenecks of high-throughput scanning is quality control (QC). Currently, digital slides are screened manually to detected out-of-focus regions, to compensate for the limitations of scanner software. We present a solution to this problem by introducing a benchmark dataset for blur detection, an in-depth comparison of state-of-the art sharpness descriptors and their prediction performance within a random forest framework. Furthermore, we show that convolution neural networks, like residual networks, can be used to train blur detectors from scratch. We thoroughly evaluate the accuracy of feature based and deep learning based approaches for sharpness classification (99.74% accuracy) and regression (MSE 0.004) and additionally compare them to domain experts in a comprehensive human perception study. Our pipeline outputs spacial heatmaps enabling to quantify and localize blurred areas on a slide. Finally, we tested the proposed framework in the clinical setting and demonstrate superior performance over the state-of-the-art QC pipeline comprising commercial software and human expert inspection by reducing the error rate from 17% to 4.7%. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Neuroimaging Characteristics of Small-Vessel Disease in Older Adults with Normal Cognition, Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Alzheimer Disease.

PubMed

Mimenza-Alvarado, Alberto; Aguilar-Navarro, Sara G; Yeverino-Castro, Sara; Mendoza-Franco, César; Ávila-Funes, José Alberto; Román, Gustavo C

2018-01-01

Cerebral small-vessel disease (SVD) represents the most frequent type of vascular brain lesions, often coexisting with Alzheimer disease (AD). By quantifying white matter hyperintensities (WMH) and hippocampal and parietal atrophy, we aimed to describe the prevalence and severity of SVD among older adults with normal cognition (NC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and probable AD and to describe associated risk factors. This study included 105 older adults evaluated with magnetic resonance imaging and clinical and neuropsychological tests. We used the Fazekas scale (FS) for quantification of WMH, the Scheltens scale (SS) for hippocampal atrophy, and the Koedam scale (KS) for parietal atrophy. Logistic regression models were performed to determine the association between FS, SS, and KS scores and the presence of NC, MCI, or probable AD. Compared to NC subjects, SVD was more prevalent in MCI and probable AD subjects. After adjusting for confounding factors, logistic regression showed a positive association between higher scores on the FS and probable AD (OR = 7.6, 95% CI 2.7-20, p < 0.001). With the use of the SS and KS (OR = 4.5, 95% CI 3.5-58, p = 0.003 and OR = 8.9, 95% CI 1-72, p = 0.04, respectively), the risk also remained significant for probable AD. These results suggest an association between severity of vascular brain lesions and neurodegeneration.

Benchmarking reference services: step by step.

PubMed

Buchanan, H S; Marshall, J G

1996-01-01

This article is a companion to an introductory article on benchmarking published in an earlier issue of Medical Reference Services Quarterly. Librarians interested in benchmarking often ask the following questions: How do I determine what to benchmark; how do I form a benchmarking team; how do I identify benchmarking partners; what's the best way to collect and analyze benchmarking information; and what will I do with the data? Careful planning is a critical success factor of any benchmarking project, and these questions must be answered before embarking on a benchmarking study. This article summarizes the steps necessary to conduct benchmarking research. Relevant examples of each benchmarking step are provided.

Bird Radar Validation in the Field by Time-Referencing Line-Transect Surveys

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; Baptist, Martin J.; Ens, Bruno J.; Krijgsveld, Karen L.; van Loon, E. Emiel

2013-01-01

Track-while-scan bird radars are widely used in ornithological studies, but often the precise detection capabilities of these systems are unknown. Quantification of radar performance is essential to avoid observational biases, which requires practical methods for validating a radar’s detection capability in specific field settings. In this study a method to quantify the detection capability of a bird radar is presented, as well a demonstration of this method in a case study. By time-referencing line-transect surveys, visually identified birds were automatically linked to individual tracks using their transect crossing time. Detection probabilities were determined as the fraction of the total set of visual observations that could be linked to radar tracks. To avoid ambiguities in assigning radar tracks to visual observations, the observer’s accuracy in determining a bird’s transect crossing time was taken into account. The accuracy was determined by examining the effect of a time lag applied to the visual observations on the number of matches found with radar tracks. Effects of flight altitude, distance, surface substrate and species size on the detection probability by the radar were quantified in a marine intertidal study area. Detection probability varied strongly with all these factors, as well as species-specific flight behaviour. The effective detection range for single birds flying at low altitude for an X-band marine radar based system was estimated at ∼1.5 km. Within this range the fraction of individual flying birds that were detected by the radar was 0.50±0.06 with a detection bias towards higher flight altitudes, larger birds and high tide situations. Besides radar validation, which we consider essential when quantification of bird numbers is important, our method of linking radar tracks to ground-truthed field observations can facilitate species-specific studies using surveillance radars. The methodology may prove equally useful for optimising tracking algorithms. PMID:24066103

Bird radar validation in the field by time-referencing line-transect surveys.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; Baptist, Martin J; Ens, Bruno J; Krijgsveld, Karen L; van Loon, E Emiel

2013-01-01

Track-while-scan bird radars are widely used in ornithological studies, but often the precise detection capabilities of these systems are unknown. Quantification of radar performance is essential to avoid observational biases, which requires practical methods for validating a radar's detection capability in specific field settings. In this study a method to quantify the detection capability of a bird radar is presented, as well a demonstration of this method in a case study. By time-referencing line-transect surveys, visually identified birds were automatically linked to individual tracks using their transect crossing time. Detection probabilities were determined as the fraction of the total set of visual observations that could be linked to radar tracks. To avoid ambiguities in assigning radar tracks to visual observations, the observer's accuracy in determining a bird's transect crossing time was taken into account. The accuracy was determined by examining the effect of a time lag applied to the visual observations on the number of matches found with radar tracks. Effects of flight altitude, distance, surface substrate and species size on the detection probability by the radar were quantified in a marine intertidal study area. Detection probability varied strongly with all these factors, as well as species-specific flight behaviour. The effective detection range for single birds flying at low altitude for an X-band marine radar based system was estimated at ~1.5 km. Within this range the fraction of individual flying birds that were detected by the radar was 0.50 ± 0.06 with a detection bias towards higher flight altitudes, larger birds and high tide situations. Besides radar validation, which we consider essential when quantification of bird numbers is important, our method of linking radar tracks to ground-truthed field observations can facilitate species-specific studies using surveillance radars. The methodology may prove equally useful for optimising tracking algorithms.

Benchmarking quantitative label-free LC-MS data processing workflows using a complex spiked proteomic standard dataset.

PubMed

Ramus, Claire; Hovasse, Agnès; Marcellin, Marlène; Hesse, Anne-Marie; Mouton-Barbosa, Emmanuelle; Bouyssié, David; Vaca, Sebastian; Carapito, Christine; Chaoui, Karima; Bruley, Christophe; Garin, Jérôme; Cianférani, Sarah; Ferro, Myriam; Van Dorssaeler, Alain; Burlet-Schiltz, Odile; Schaeffer, Christine; Couté, Yohann; Gonzalez de Peredo, Anne

2016-01-30

Proteomic workflows based on nanoLC-MS/MS data-dependent-acquisition analysis have progressed tremendously in recent years. High-resolution and fast sequencing instruments have enabled the use of label-free quantitative methods, based either on spectral counting or on MS signal analysis, which appear as an attractive way to analyze differential protein expression in complex biological samples. However, the computational processing of the data for label-free quantification still remains a challenge. Here, we used a proteomic standard composed of an equimolar mixture of 48 human proteins (Sigma UPS1) spiked at different concentrations into a background of yeast cell lysate to benchmark several label-free quantitative workflows, involving different software packages developed in recent years. This experimental design allowed to finely assess their performances in terms of sensitivity and false discovery rate, by measuring the number of true and false-positive (respectively UPS1 or yeast background proteins found as differential). The spiked standard dataset has been deposited to the ProteomeXchange repository with the identifier PXD001819 and can be used to benchmark other label-free workflows, adjust software parameter settings, improve algorithms for extraction of the quantitative metrics from raw MS data, or evaluate downstream statistical methods. Bioinformatic pipelines for label-free quantitative analysis must be objectively evaluated in their ability to detect variant proteins with good sensitivity and low false discovery rate in large-scale proteomic studies. This can be done through the use of complex spiked samples, for which the "ground truth" of variant proteins is known, allowing a statistical evaluation of the performances of the data processing workflow. We provide here such a controlled standard dataset and used it to evaluate the performances of several label-free bioinformatics tools (including MaxQuant, Skyline, MFPaQ, IRMa-hEIDI and Scaffold) in different workflows, for detection of variant proteins with different absolute expression levels and fold change values. The dataset presented here can be useful for tuning software tool parameters, and also testing new algorithms for label-free quantitative analysis, or for evaluation of downstream statistical methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TH-A-19A-04: Latent Uncertainties and Performance of a GPU-Implemented Pre-Calculated Track Monte Carlo Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Renaud, M; Seuntjens, J; Roberge, D

Purpose: Assessing the performance and uncertainty of a pre-calculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport running on graphics processing units (GPU). While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from recycling a limited number of tracks in the pre-generated track bank is missing from the literature. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal pre-generated track bank size can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pre-generated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4, respectively. The PMC algorithm for track transport was implementedmore » on the CUDA programming framework. GPU-PMC dose distributions were compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated using general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty analysis was performed by comparing GPUPMC dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark while varying the track bank size and primary particle histories. Results: GPU-PMC dose distributions and benchmark doses were within 1% of each other in voxels with dose greater than 50% of Dmax. In proton calculations, a submillimeter distance-to-agreement error was observed at the Bragg Peak. Latent uncertainty followed a Poisson distribution with the number of tracks per energy (TPE) and a track bank of 20,000 TPE produced a latent uncertainty of approximately 1%. Efficiency analysis showed a 937× and 508× gain over a single processor core running DOSXYZnrc for 16 MeV electrons in water and bone, respectively. Conclusion: The GPU-PMC method can calculate dose distributions for electrons and protons to a statistical uncertainty below 1%. The track bank size necessary to achieve an optimal efficiency can be tuned based on the desired uncertainty. Coupled with a model to calculate dose contributions from uncharged particles, GPU-PMC is a candidate for inverse planning of modulated electron radiotherapy and scanned proton beams. This work was supported in part by FRSQ-MSSS (Grant No. 22090), NSERC RG (Grant No. 432290) and CIHR MOP (Grant No. MOP-211360)« less

Flood probability quantification for road infrastructure: Data-driven spatial-statistical approach and case study applications.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Cavalli, Marco; Cantone, Carolina; Crema, Stefano; Destouni, Georgia

2017-03-01

Climate-driven increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events is expected to impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. This study develops a data-driven spatial-statistical approach to quantifying and mapping the probability of flooding at critical road-stream intersection locations, where water flow and sediment transport may accumulate and cause serious road damage. The approach is based on novel integration of key watershed and road characteristics, including also measures of sediment connectivity. The approach is concretely applied to and quantified for two specific study case examples in southwest Sweden, with documented road flooding effects of recorded extreme rainfall. The novel contributions of this study in combining a sediment connectivity account with that of soil type, land use, spatial precipitation-runoff variability and road drainage in catchments, and in extending the connectivity measure use for different types of catchments, improve the accuracy of model results for road flood probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

PubMed

Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

2010-11-15

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CyClus: a fast, comprehensive cylindrical interface approximation clustering/reranking method for rigid-body protein-protein docking decoys.

PubMed

Omori, Satoshi; Kitao, Akio

2013-06-01

We propose a fast clustering and reranking method, CyClus, for protein-protein docking decoys. This method enables comprehensive clustering of whole decoys generated by rigid-body docking using cylindrical approximation of the protein-proteininterface and hierarchical clustering procedures. We demonstrate the clustering and reranking of 54,000 decoy structures generated by ZDOCK for each complex within a few minutes. After parameter tuning for the test set in ZDOCK benchmark 2.0 with the ZDOCK and ZRANK scoring functions, blind tests for the incremental data in ZDOCK benchmark 3.0 and 4.0 were conducted. CyClus successfully generated smaller subsets of decoys containing near-native decoys. For example, the number of decoys required to create subsets containing near-native decoys with 80% probability was reduced from 22% to 50% of the number required in the original ZDOCK. Although specific ZDOCK and ZRANK results were demonstrated, the CyClus algorithm was designed to be more general and can be applied to a wide range of decoys and scoring functions by adjusting just two parameters, p and T. CyClus results were also compared to those from ClusPro. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Maximizing the Spread of Influence via Generalized Degree Discount.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Zhao, Chengli; Yi, Dongyun

2016-01-01

It is a crucial and fundamental issue to identify a small subset of influential spreaders that can control the spreading process in networks. In previous studies, a degree-based heuristic called DegreeDiscount has been shown to effectively identify multiple influential spreaders and has severed as a benchmark method. However, the basic assumption of DegreeDiscount is not adequate, because it treats all the nodes equally without any differences. To consider a general situation in real world networks, a novel heuristic method named GeneralizedDegreeDiscount is proposed in this paper as an effective extension of original method. In our method, the status of a node is defined as a probability of not being influenced by any of its neighbors, and an index generalized discounted degree of one node is presented to measure the expected number of nodes it can influence. Then the spreaders are selected sequentially upon its generalized discounted degree in current network. Empirical experiments are conducted on four real networks, and the results show that the spreaders identified by our approach are more influential than several benchmark methods. Finally, we analyze the relationship between our method and three common degree-based methods.

Maximizing the Spread of Influence via Generalized Degree Discount

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Zhao, Chengli; Yi, Dongyun

2016-01-01

It is a crucial and fundamental issue to identify a small subset of influential spreaders that can control the spreading process in networks. In previous studies, a degree-based heuristic called DegreeDiscount has been shown to effectively identify multiple influential spreaders and has severed as a benchmark method. However, the basic assumption of DegreeDiscount is not adequate, because it treats all the nodes equally without any differences. To consider a general situation in real world networks, a novel heuristic method named GeneralizedDegreeDiscount is proposed in this paper as an effective extension of original method. In our method, the status of a node is defined as a probability of not being influenced by any of its neighbors, and an index generalized discounted degree of one node is presented to measure the expected number of nodes it can influence. Then the spreaders are selected sequentially upon its generalized discounted degree in current network. Empirical experiments are conducted on four real networks, and the results show that the spreaders identified by our approach are more influential than several benchmark methods. Finally, we analyze the relationship between our method and three common degree-based methods. PMID:27732681

An integrity measure to benchmark quantum error correcting memories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaosi; de Beaudrap, Niel; O'Gorman, Joe; Benjamin, Simon C.

2018-02-01

Rapidly developing experiments across multiple platforms now aim to realise small quantum codes, and so demonstrate a memory within which a logical qubit can be protected from noise. There is a need to benchmark the achievements in these diverse systems, and to compare the inherent power of the codes they rely upon. We describe a recently introduced performance measure called integrity, which relates to the probability that an ideal agent will successfully ‘guess’ the state of a logical qubit after a period of storage in the memory. Integrity is straightforward to evaluate experimentally without state tomography and it can be related to various established metrics such as the logical fidelity and the pseudo-threshold. We offer a set of experimental milestones that are steps towards demonstrating unconditionally superior encoded memories. Using intensive numerical simulations we compare memories based on the five-qubit code, the seven-qubit Steane code, and a nine-qubit code which is the smallest instance of a surface code; we assess both the simple and fault-tolerant implementations of each. While the ‘best’ code upon which to base a memory does vary according to the nature and severity of the noise, nevertheless certain trends emerge.

Absolute quantification of Medicago truncatula sucrose synthase isoforms and N-metabolism enzymes in symbiotic root nodules and the detection of novel nodule phosphoproteins by mass spectrometry

PubMed Central

Wienkoop, Stefanie; Larrainzar, Estíbaliz; Glinski, Mirko; González, Esther M.; Arrese-Igor, Cesar; Weckwerth, Wolfram

2008-01-01

Mass spectrometry (MS) has become increasingly important for tissue specific protein quantification at the isoform level, as well as for the analysis of protein post-translational regulation mechanisms and turnover rates. Thanks to the development of high accuracy mass spectrometers, peptide sequencing without prior knowledge of the amino acid sequence—de novo sequencing—can be performed. In this work, absolute quantification of a set of key enzymes involved in carbon and nitrogen metabolism in Medicago truncatula ‘Jemalong A17’ root nodules is presented. Among them, sucrose synthase (SuSy; EC 2.4.1.13), one of the central enzymes in sucrose cleavage in root nodules, has been further characterized and the relative phosphorylation state of the three most abundant isoforms has been quantified. De novo sequencing provided sequence information of a so far unidentified peptide, most probably belonging to SuSy2, the second most abundant isoform in M. truncatula root nodules. TiO2-phosphopeptide enrichment led to the identification of not only a phosphorylation site at Ser11 in SuSy1, but also of several novel phosphorylation sites present in other root nodule proteins such as alkaline invertase (AI; EC 3.2.1.26) and an RNA-binding protein. PMID:18772307

Confidence estimation for quantitative photoacoustic imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gröhl, Janek; Kirchner, Thomas; Maier-Hein, Lena

2018-02-01

Quantification of photoacoustic (PA) images is one of the major challenges currently being addressed in PA research. Tissue properties can be quantified by correcting the recorded PA signal with an estimation of the corresponding fluence. Fluence estimation itself, however, is an ill-posed inverse problem which usually needs simplifying assumptions to be solved with state-of-the-art methods. These simplifications, as well as noise and artifacts in PA images reduce the accuracy of quantitative PA imaging (PAI). This reduction in accuracy is often localized to image regions where the assumptions do not hold true. This impedes the reconstruction of functional parameters when averaging over entire regions of interest (ROI). Averaging over a subset of voxels with a high accuracy would lead to an improved estimation of such parameters. To achieve this, we propose a novel approach to the local estimation of confidence in quantitative reconstructions of PA images. It makes use of conditional probability densities to estimate confidence intervals alongside the actual quantification. It encapsulates an estimation of the errors introduced by fluence estimation as well as signal noise. We validate the approach using Monte Carlo generated data in combination with a recently introduced machine learning-based approach to quantitative PAI. Our experiments show at least a two-fold improvement in quantification accuracy when evaluating on voxels with high confidence instead of thresholding signal intensity.

Multi-site assessment of the precision and reproducibility of multiple reaction monitoring–based measurements of proteins in plasma

PubMed Central

Addona, Terri A; Abbatiello, Susan E; Schilling, Birgit; Skates, Steven J; Mani, D R; Bunk, David M; Spiegelman, Clifford H; Zimmerman, Lisa J; Ham, Amy-Joan L; Keshishian, Hasmik; Hall, Steven C; Allen, Simon; Blackman, Ronald K; Borchers, Christoph H; Buck, Charles; Cardasis, Helene L; Cusack, Michael P; Dodder, Nathan G; Gibson, Bradford W; Held, Jason M; Hiltke, Tara; Jackson, Angela; Johansen, Eric B; Kinsinger, Christopher R; Li, Jing; Mesri, Mehdi; Neubert, Thomas A; Niles, Richard K; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Ransohoff, David; Rodriguez, Henry; Rudnick, Paul A; Smith, Derek; Tabb, David L; Tegeler, Tony J; Variyath, Asokan M; Vega-Montoto, Lorenzo J; Wahlander, Åsa; Waldemarson, Sofia; Wang, Mu; Whiteaker, Jeffrey R; Zhao, Lei; Anderson, N Leigh; Fisher, Susan J; Liebler, Daniel C; Paulovich, Amanda G; Regnier, Fred E; Tempst, Paul; Carr, Steven A

2010-01-01

Verification of candidate biomarkers relies upon specific, quantitative assays optimized for selective detection of target proteins, and is increasingly viewed as a critical step in the discovery pipeline that bridges unbiased biomarker discovery to preclinical validation. Although individual laboratories have demonstrated that multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) coupled with isotope dilution mass spectrometry can quantify candidate protein biomarkers in plasma, reproducibility and transferability of these assays between laboratories have not been demonstrated. We describe a multilaboratory study to assess reproducibility, recovery, linear dynamic range and limits of detection and quantification of multiplexed, MRM-based assays, conducted by NCI-CPTAC. Using common materials and standardized protocols, we demonstrate that these assays can be highly reproducible within and across laboratories and instrument platforms, and are sensitive to low µg/ml protein concentrations in unfractionated plasma. We provide data and benchmarks against which individual laboratories can compare their performance and evaluate new technologies for biomarker verification in plasma. PMID:19561596

Optimal protein library design using recombination or point mutations based on sequence-based scoring functions.

PubMed

Pantazes, Robert J; Saraf, Manish C; Maranas, Costas D

2007-08-01

In this paper, we introduce and test two new sequence-based protein scoring systems (i.e. S1, S2) for assessing the likelihood that a given protein hybrid will be functional. By binning together amino acids with similar properties (i.e. volume, hydrophobicity and charge) the scoring systems S1 and S2 allow for the quantification of the severity of mismatched interactions in the hybrids. The S2 scoring system is found to be able to significantly functionally enrich a cytochrome P450 library over other scoring methods. Given this scoring base, we subsequently constructed two separate optimization formulations (i.e. OPTCOMB and OPTOLIGO) for optimally designing protein combinatorial libraries involving recombination or mutations, respectively. Notably, two separate versions of OPTCOMB are generated (i.e. model M1, M2) with the latter allowing for position-dependent parental fragment skipping. Computational benchmarking results demonstrate the efficacy of models OPTCOMB and OPTOLIGO to generate high scoring libraries of a prespecified size.

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parussini, L.; Venturi, D., E-mail: venturi@ucsc.edu; Perdikaris, P.

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgersmore » equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilkey, Lindsay

This milestone presents a demonstration of the High-to-Low (Hi2Lo) process in the VVI focus area. Validation and additional calculations with the commercial computational fluid dynamics code, STAR-CCM+, were performed using a 5x5 fuel assembly with non-mixing geometry and spacer grids. This geometry was based on the benchmark experiment provided by Westinghouse. Results from the simulations were compared to existing experimental data and to the subchannel thermal-hydraulics code COBRA-TF (CTF). An uncertainty quantification (UQ) process was developed for the STAR-CCM+ model and results of the STAR UQ were communicated to CTF. Results from STAR-CCM+ simulations were used as experimental design pointsmore » in CTF to calibrate the mixing parameter β and compared to results obtained using experimental data points. This demonstrated that CTF’s β parameter can be calibrated to match existing experimental data more closely. The Hi2Lo process for the STAR-CCM+/CTF code coupling was documented in this milestone and closely linked L3:VVI.H2LP15.01 milestone report.« less

UQ for Decision Making: How (at least five) Kinds of Probability Might Come Into Play

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

In 1959 IJ Good published the discussion "Kinds of Probability" in Science. Good identified (at least) five kinds. The need for (at least) a sixth kind of probability when quantifying uncertainty in the context of climate science is discussed. This discussion brings out the differences in weather-like forecasting tasks and climate-links tasks, with a focus on the effective use both of science and of modelling in support of decision making. Good also introduced the idea of a "Dynamic probability" a probability one expects to change without any additional empirical evidence; the probabilities assigned by a chess playing program when it is only half thorough its analysis being an example. This case is contrasted with the case of "Mature probabilities" where a forecast algorithm (or model) has converged on its asymptotic probabilities and the question hinges in whether or not those probabilities are expected to change significantly before the event in question occurs, even in the absence of new empirical evidence. If so, then how might one report and deploy such immature probabilities in scientific-support of decision-making rationally? Mature Probability is suggested as a useful sixth kind, although Good would doubtlessly argue that we can get by with just one, effective communication with decision makers may be enhanced by speaking as if the others existed. This again highlights the distinction between weather-like contexts and climate-like contexts. In the former context one has access to a relevant climatology (a relevant, arguably informative distribution prior to any model simulations), in the latter context that information is not available although one can fall back on the scientific basis upon which the model itself rests, and estimate the probability that the model output is in fact misinformative. This subjective "probability of a big surprise" is one way to communicate the probability of model-based information holding in practice, the probability that the information the model-based probability is conditioned on holds. It is argued that no model-based climate-like probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate of its own irrelevance, and that the clear identification of model-based probability forecasts as mature or immature, are critical elements for maintaining the credibility of science-based decision support, and can shape uncertainty quantification more widely.

Limitations of Community College Benchmarking and Benchmarks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bers, Trudy H.

2006-01-01

This chapter distinguishes between benchmarks and benchmarking, describes a number of data and cultural limitations to benchmarking projects, and suggests that external demands for accountability are the dominant reason for growing interest in benchmarking among community colleges.

Prevalence and quantification of Listeria monocytogenes in chicken offal at the retail level in Malaysia.

PubMed

Kuan, C H; Goh, S G; Loo, Y Y; Chang, W S; Lye, Y L; Puspanadan, S; Tang, J Y H; Nakaguchi, Y; Nishibuchi, M; Mahyudin, N A; Radu, S

2013-06-01

A total of 216 chicken offal samples (chicken liver = 72; chicken heart = 72; chicken gizzard = 72) from wet markets and hypermarkets in Selangor, Malaysia, were examined for the presence and density of Listeria monocytogenes by using a combination of the most probable number and PCR method. The prevalence of L. monocytogenes in 216 chicken offal samples examined was 26.39%, and among the positive samples, the chicken gizzard showed the highest percentage at 33.33% compared with chicken liver (25.00%) and chicken heart (20.83%). The microbial load of L. monocytogenes in chicken offal samples ranged from <3 to 93.0 most probable number per gram. The presence of L. monocytogenes in chicken offal samples may indicate that chicken offal can act as a possible vehicle for the occurrence of foodborne listeriosis. Hence, there is a need to investigate the biosafety level of chicken offal in Malaysia.

Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: A Bayesian experimental design approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongqiao; Lin, Guang; Li, Jinglai

2016-05-01

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify the probability of undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples.

Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmittner, A.; Urban, N.; Shakun, J. D.; Mahowald, N. M.; Clark, P. U.; Bartlein, P. J.; Mix, A. C.; Rosell-Melé, A.

2011-12-01

In 1959 IJ Good published the discussion "Kinds of Probability" in Science. Good identified (at least) five kinds. The need for (at least) a sixth kind of probability when quantifying uncertainty in the context of climate science is discussed. This discussion brings out the differences in weather-like forecasting tasks and climate-links tasks, with a focus on the effective use both of science and of modelling in support of decision making. Good also introduced the idea of a "Dynamic probability" a probability one expects to change without any additional empirical evidence; the probabilities assigned by a chess playing program when it is only half thorough its analysis being an example. This case is contrasted with the case of "Mature probabilities" where a forecast algorithm (or model) has converged on its asymptotic probabilities and the question hinges in whether or not those probabilities are expected to change significantly before the event in question occurs, even in the absence of new empirical evidence. If so, then how might one report and deploy such immature probabilities in scientific-support of decision-making rationally? Mature Probability is suggested as a useful sixth kind, although Good would doubtlessly argue that we can get by with just one, effective communication with decision makers may be enhanced by speaking as if the others existed. This again highlights the distinction between weather-like contexts and climate-like contexts. In the former context one has access to a relevant climatology (a relevant, arguably informative distribution prior to any model simulations), in the latter context that information is not available although one can fall back on the scientific basis upon which the model itself rests, and estimate the probability that the model output is in fact misinformative. This subjective "probability of a big surprise" is one way to communicate the probability of model-based information holding in practice, the probability that the information the model-based probability is conditioned on holds. It is argued that no model-based climate-like probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate of its own irrelevance, and that the clear identification of model-based probability forecasts as mature or immature, are critical elements for maintaining the credibility of science-based decision support, and can shape uncertainty quantification more widely.

Developing a weighting strategy to include mobile phone numbers into an ongoing population health survey using an overlapping dual-frame design with limited benchmark information

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In 2012 mobile phone numbers were included into the ongoing New South Wales Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) using an overlapping dual-frame design. Previously in the NSWPHS the sample was selected using random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phone numbers. The survey was undertaken using computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The weighting strategy needed to be significantly expanded to manage the differing probabilities of selection by frame, including that of children of mobile-only phone users, and to adjust for the increased chance of selection of dual-phone users. This paper describes the development of the final weighting strategy to properly combine the data from two overlapping sample frames accounting for the fact that population benchmarks for the different sampling frames were not available at the state or regional level. Methods Estimates of the number of phone numbers for the landline and mobile phone frames used to calculate the differing probabilities of selection by frame, for New South Wales (NSW) and by stratum, were obtained by apportioning Australian estimates as none were available for NSW. The weighting strategy was then developed by calculating person selection probabilities, selection weights, applying a constant composite factor to the dual-phone users sample weights, and benchmarking to the latest NSW population by age group, sex and stratum. Results Data from the NSWPHS for the first quarter of 2012 was used to test the weighting strategy. This consisted of data on 3395 respondents with 2171 (64%) from the landline frame and 1224 (36%) from the mobile frame. However, in order to calculate the weights, data needed to be available for all core weighting variables and so 3378 respondents, 2933 adults and 445 children, had sufficient data to be included. Average person weights were 3.3 times higher for the mobile-only respondents, 1.3 times higher for the landline-only respondents and 1.7 times higher for dual-phone users in the mobile frame compared to the dual-phone users in the landline frame. The overall weight effect for the first quarter of 2012 was 1.93 and the coefficient of variation of the weights was 0.96. The weight effects for 2012 were similar to, and in many cases less than, the effects found in the corresponding quarter of the 2011 NSWPHS when only a landline based sample was used. Conclusions The inclusion of mobile phone numbers, through an overlapping dual-frame design, improved the coverage of the survey and an appropriate weighing procedure is feasible, although it added substantially to the complexity of the weighting strategy. Access to accurate Australian, State and Territory estimates of the number of landline and mobile phone numbers and type of phone use by at least age group and sex would greatly assist in the weighting of dual-frame surveys in Australia. PMID:25189826

Developing a weighting strategy to include mobile phone numbers into an ongoing population health survey using an overlapping dual-frame design with limited benchmark information.

PubMed

Barr, Margo L; Ferguson, Raymond A; Hughes, Phil J; Steel, David G

2014-09-04

In 2012 mobile phone numbers were included into the ongoing New South Wales Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) using an overlapping dual-frame design. Previously in the NSWPHS the sample was selected using random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phone numbers. The survey was undertaken using computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The weighting strategy needed to be significantly expanded to manage the differing probabilities of selection by frame, including that of children of mobile-only phone users, and to adjust for the increased chance of selection of dual-phone users. This paper describes the development of the final weighting strategy to properly combine the data from two overlapping sample frames accounting for the fact that population benchmarks for the different sampling frames were not available at the state or regional level. Estimates of the number of phone numbers for the landline and mobile phone frames used to calculate the differing probabilities of selection by frame, for New South Wales (NSW) and by stratum, were obtained by apportioning Australian estimates as none were available for NSW. The weighting strategy was then developed by calculating person selection probabilities, selection weights, applying a constant composite factor to the dual-phone users sample weights, and benchmarking to the latest NSW population by age group, sex and stratum. Data from the NSWPHS for the first quarter of 2012 was used to test the weighting strategy. This consisted of data on 3395 respondents with 2171 (64%) from the landline frame and 1224 (36%) from the mobile frame. However, in order to calculate the weights, data needed to be available for all core weighting variables and so 3378 respondents, 2933 adults and 445 children, had sufficient data to be included. Average person weights were 3.3 times higher for the mobile-only respondents, 1.3 times higher for the landline-only respondents and 1.7 times higher for dual-phone users in the mobile frame compared to the dual-phone users in the landline frame. The overall weight effect for the first quarter of 2012 was 1.93 and the coefficient of variation of the weights was 0.96. The weight effects for 2012 were similar to, and in many cases less than, the effects found in the corresponding quarter of the 2011 NSWPHS when only a landline based sample was used. The inclusion of mobile phone numbers, through an overlapping dual-frame design, improved the coverage of the survey and an appropriate weighing procedure is feasible, although it added substantially to the complexity of the weighting strategy. Access to accurate Australian, State and Territory estimates of the number of landline and mobile phone numbers and type of phone use by at least age group and sex would greatly assist in the weighting of dual-frame surveys in Australia.

Local Multi-Channel RF Surface Coil versus Body RF Coil Transmission for Cardiac Magnetic Resonance at 3 Tesla: Which Configuration Is Winning the Game?

PubMed

Weinberger, Oliver; Winter, Lukas; Dieringer, Matthias A; Els, Antje; Oezerdem, Celal; Rieger, Jan; Kuehne, Andre; Cassara, Antonino M; Pfeiffer, Harald; Wetterling, Friedrich; Niendorf, Thoralf

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of cardiac MR at 3 Tesla using local four-channel RF coil transmission and benchmark it against large volume body RF coil excitation. Electromagnetic field simulations are conducted to detail RF power deposition, transmission field uniformity and efficiency for local and body RF coil transmission. For both excitation regimes transmission field maps are acquired in a human torso phantom. For each transmission regime flip angle distributions and blood-myocardium contrast are examined in a volunteer study of 12 subjects. The feasibility of the local transceiver RF coil array for cardiac chamber quantification at 3 Tesla is demonstrated. Our simulations and experiments demonstrate that cardiac MR at 3 Tesla using four-channel surface RF coil transmission is competitive versus current clinical CMR practice of large volume body RF coil transmission. The efficiency advantage of the 4TX/4RX setup facilitates shorter repetition times governed by local SAR limits versus body RF coil transmission at whole-body SAR limit. No statistically significant difference was found for cardiac chamber quantification derived with body RF coil versus four-channel surface RF coil transmission. Our simulation also show that the body RF coil exceeds local SAR limits by a factor of ~2 when driven at maximum applicable input power to reach the whole-body SAR limit. Pursuing local surface RF coil arrays for transmission in cardiac MR is a conceptually appealing alternative to body RF coil transmission, especially for patients with implants.

A method of decision analysis quantifying the effects of age and comorbidities on the probability of deriving significant benefit from medical treatments

PubMed Central

Bean, Nigel G.; Ruberu, Ravi P.

2017-01-01

Background The external validity, or generalizability, of trials and guidelines has been considered poor in the context of multiple morbidity. How multiple morbidity might affect the magnitude of benefit of a given treatment, and thereby external validity, has had little study. Objective To provide a method of decision analysis to quantify the effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving a given magnitude of treatment benefit. Design We developed a method to calculate probabilistically the effect of all of a patient’s comorbidities on their underlying utility, or well-being, at a future time point. From this, we derived a distribution of possible magnitudes of treatment benefit at that future time point. We then expressed this distribution as the probability of deriving at least a given magnitude of treatment benefit. To demonstrate the applicability of this method of decision analysis, we applied it to the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia in a geriatric population of 50 individuals. We highlighted the results of four of these individuals. Results This method of analysis provided individualized quantifications of the effect of age and comorbidity on the probability of treatment benefit. The average probability of deriving a benefit, of at least 50% of the magnitude of benefit available to an individual without comorbidity, was only 0.8%. Conclusion The effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving significant treatment benefits can be quantified for any individual. Even without consideration of other factors affecting external validity, these effects may be sufficient to guide decision-making. PMID:29090189

Benchmarking specialty hospitals, a scoping review on theory and practice.

PubMed

Wind, A; van Harten, W H

2017-04-04

Although benchmarking may improve hospital processes, research on this subject is limited. The aim of this study was to provide an overview of publications on benchmarking in specialty hospitals and a description of study characteristics. We searched PubMed and EMBASE for articles published in English in the last 10 years. Eligible articles described a project stating benchmarking as its objective and involving a specialty hospital or specific patient category; or those dealing with the methodology or evaluation of benchmarking. Of 1,817 articles identified in total, 24 were included in the study. Articles were categorized into: pathway benchmarking, institutional benchmarking, articles on benchmark methodology or -evaluation and benchmarking using a patient registry. There was a large degree of variability:(1) study designs were mostly descriptive and retrospective; (2) not all studies generated and showed data in sufficient detail; and (3) there was variety in whether a benchmarking model was just described or if quality improvement as a consequence of the benchmark was reported upon. Most of the studies that described a benchmark model described the use of benchmarking partners from the same industry category, sometimes from all over the world. Benchmarking seems to be more developed in eye hospitals, emergency departments and oncology specialty hospitals. Some studies showed promising improvement effects. However, the majority of the articles lacked a structured design, and did not report on benchmark outcomes. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of benchmarking to improve quality in specialty hospitals, robust and structured designs are needed including a follow up to check whether the benchmark study has led to improvements.

Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Jung Heon; Wu, Kesheng; Simon, Horst D.

2014-03-01

VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed trading) is a leading indicator of liquidity-induced volatility. It is best known for having produced a signal more than hours before the Flash Crash of 2010. On that day, the market saw the biggest one-day point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which culminated to the market value of $1 trillion disappearing, but only to recover those losses twenty minutes later (Lauricella 2010). The computation of VPIN requires the user to set up a handful of free parameters. The values of these parameters significantly affect the effectiveness of VPIN as measured by themore » false positive rate (FPR). An earlier publication reported that a brute-force search of simple parameter combinations yielded a number of parameter combinations with FPR of 7%. This work is a systematic attempt to find an optimal parameter set using an optimization package, NOMAD (Nonlinear Optimization by Mesh Adaptive Direct Search) by Audet, le digabel, and tribes (2009) and le digabel (2011). We have implemented a number of techniques to reduce the computation time with NOMAD. Tests show that we can reduce the FPR to only 2%. To better understand the parameter choices, we have conducted a series of sensitivity analysis via uncertainty quantification on the parameter spaces using UQTK (Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit). Results have shown dominance of 2 parameters in the computation of FPR. Using the outputs from NOMAD optimization and sensitivity analysis, We recommend A range of values for each of the free parameters that perform well on a large set of futures trading records.« less

All inclusive benchmarking.

PubMed

Ellis, Judith

2006-07-01

The aim of this article is to review published descriptions of benchmarking activity and synthesize benchmarking principles to encourage the acceptance and use of Essence of Care as a new benchmarking approach to continuous quality improvement, and to promote its acceptance as an integral and effective part of benchmarking activity in health services. The Essence of Care, was launched by the Department of Health in England in 2001 to provide a benchmarking tool kit to support continuous improvement in the quality of fundamental aspects of health care, for example, privacy and dignity, nutrition and hygiene. The tool kit is now being effectively used by some frontline staff. However, use is inconsistent, with the value of the tool kit, or the support clinical practice benchmarking requires to be effective, not always recognized or provided by National Health Service managers, who are absorbed with the use of quantitative benchmarking approaches and measurability of comparative performance data. This review of published benchmarking literature, was obtained through an ever-narrowing search strategy commencing from benchmarking within quality improvement literature through to benchmarking activity in health services and including access to not only published examples of benchmarking approaches and models used but the actual consideration of web-based benchmarking data. This supported identification of how benchmarking approaches have developed and been used, remaining true to the basic benchmarking principles of continuous improvement through comparison and sharing (Camp 1989). Descriptions of models and exemplars of quantitative and specifically performance benchmarking activity in industry abound (Camp 1998), with far fewer examples of more qualitative and process benchmarking approaches in use in the public services and then applied to the health service (Bullivant 1998). The literature is also in the main descriptive in its support of the effectiveness of benchmarking activity and although this does not seem to have restricted its popularity in quantitative activity, reticence about the value of the more qualitative approaches, for example Essence of Care, needs to be overcome in order to improve the quality of patient care and experiences. The perceived immeasurability and subjectivity of Essence of Care and clinical practice benchmarks means that these benchmarking approaches are not always accepted or supported by health service organizations as valid benchmarking activity. In conclusion, Essence of Care benchmarking is a sophisticated clinical practice benchmarking approach which needs to be accepted as an integral part of health service benchmarking activity to support improvement in the quality of patient care and experiences.

Assessment and quantification of patient set-up errors in nasopharyngeal cancer patients and their biological and dosimetric impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD), tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP).

PubMed

Boughalia, A; Marcie, S; Fellah, M; Chami, S; Mekki, F

2015-06-01

The aim of this study is to assess and quantify patients' set-up errors using an electronic portal imaging device and to evaluate their dosimetric and biological impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) on predictive models, such as the tumour control probability (TCP) and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). 20 patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer were enrolled in the radiotherapy-oncology department of HCA. Systematic and random errors were quantified. The dosimetric and biological impact of these set-up errors on the target volume and the organ at risk (OARs) coverage were assessed using calculation of dose-volume histogram, gEUD, TCP and NTCP. For this purpose, an in-house software was developed and used. The standard deviations (1SDs) of the systematic set-up and random set-up errors were calculated for the lateral and subclavicular fields and gave the following results: ∑ = 0.63 ± (0.42) mm and σ = 3.75 ± (0.79) mm, respectively. Thus a planning organ at risk volume (PRV) margin of 3 mm was defined around the OARs, and a 5-mm margin used around the clinical target volume. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP calculations obtained with and without set-up errors have shown increased values for tumour, where ΔgEUD (tumour) = 1.94% Gy (p = 0.00721) and ΔTCP = 2.03%. The toxicity of OARs was quantified using gEUD and NTCP. The values of ΔgEUD (OARs) vary from 0.78% to 5.95% in the case of the brainstem and the optic chiasm, respectively. The corresponding ΔNTCP varies from 0.15% to 0.53%, respectively. The quantification of set-up errors has a dosimetric and biological impact on the tumour and on the OARs. The developed in-house software using the concept of gEUD, TCP and NTCP biological models has been successfully used in this study. It can be used also to optimize the treatment plan established for our patients. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP may be more suitable tools to assess the treatment plans before treating the patients.

SU-E-J-30: Benchmark Image-Based TCP Calculation for Evaluation of PTV Margins for Lung SBRT Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, M; Chetty, I; Zhong, H

2014-06-01

Purpose: Tumor control probability (TCP) calculated with accumulated radiation doses may help design appropriate treatment margins. Image registration errors, however, may compromise the calculated TCP. The purpose of this study is to develop benchmark CT images to quantify registration-induced errors in the accumulated doses and their corresponding TCP. Methods: 4DCT images were registered from end-inhale (EI) to end-exhale (EE) using a “demons” algorithm. The demons DVFs were corrected by an FEM model to get realistic deformation fields. The FEM DVFs were used to warp the EI images to create the FEM-simulated images. The two images combined with the FEM DVFmore » formed a benchmark model. Maximum intensity projection (MIP) images, created from the EI and simulated images, were used to develop IMRT plans. Two plans with 3 and 5 mm margins were developed for each patient. With these plans, radiation doses were recalculated on the simulated images and warped back to the EI images using the FEM DVFs to get the accumulated doses. The Elastix software was used to register the FEM-simulated images to the EI images. TCPs calculated with the Elastix-accumulated doses were compared with those generated by the FEM to get the TCP error of the Elastix registrations. Results: For six lung patients, the mean Elastix registration error ranged from 0.93 to 1.98 mm. Their relative dose errors in PTV were between 0.28% and 6.8% for 3mm margin plans, and between 0.29% and 6.3% for 5mm-margin plans. As the PTV margin reduced from 5 to 3 mm, the mean TCP error of the Elastix-reconstructed doses increased from 2.0% to 2.9%, and the mean NTCP errors decreased from 1.2% to 1.1%. Conclusion: Patient-specific benchmark images can be used to evaluate the impact of registration errors on the computed TCPs, and may help select appropriate PTV margins for lung SBRT patients.« less

Benchmarking a geostatistical procedure for the homogenisation of annual precipitation series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caineta, Júlio; Ribeiro, Sara; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar; Costa, Ana Cristina

2014-05-01

The European project COST Action ES0601, Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME), has brought to attention the importance of establishing reliable homogenisation methods for climate data. In order to achieve that, a benchmark data set, containing monthly and daily temperature and precipitation data, was created to be used as a comparison basis for the effectiveness of those methods. Several contributions were submitted and evaluated by a number of performance metrics, validating the results against realistic inhomogeneous data. HOME also led to the development of new homogenisation software packages, which included feedback and lessons learned during the project. Preliminary studies have suggested a geostatistical stochastic approach, which uses Direct Sequential Simulation (DSS), as a promising methodology for the homogenisation of precipitation data series. Based on the spatial and temporal correlation between the neighbouring stations, DSS calculates local probability density functions at a candidate station to detect inhomogeneities. The purpose of the current study is to test and compare this geostatistical approach with the methods previously presented in the HOME project, using surrogate precipitation series from the HOME benchmark data set. The benchmark data set contains monthly precipitation surrogate series, from which annual precipitation data series were derived. These annual precipitation series were subject to exploratory analysis and to a thorough variography study. The geostatistical approach was then applied to the data set, based on different scenarios for the spatial continuity. Implementing this procedure also promoted the development of a computer program that aims to assist on the homogenisation of climate data, while minimising user interaction. Finally, in order to compare the effectiveness of this methodology with the homogenisation methods submitted during the HOME project, the obtained results were evaluated using the same performance metrics. This comparison opens new perspectives for the development of an innovative procedure based on the geostatistical stochastic approach. Acknowledgements: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of "Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia" (FCT), Portugal, through the research project PTDC/GEO-MET/4026/2012 ("GSIMCLI - Geostatistical simulation with local distributions for the homogenization and interpolation of climate data").

An Enhanced Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm with Solution Acceptance Rule and Probabilistic Multisearch.

PubMed

Yurtkuran, Alkın; Emel, Erdal

2016-01-01

The artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is a popular swarm based technique, which is inspired from the intelligent foraging behavior of honeybee swarms. This paper proposes a new variant of ABC algorithm, namely, enhanced ABC with solution acceptance rule and probabilistic multisearch (ABC-SA) to address global optimization problems. A new solution acceptance rule is proposed where, instead of greedy selection between old solution and new candidate solution, worse candidate solutions have a probability to be accepted. Additionally, the acceptance probability of worse candidates is nonlinearly decreased throughout the search process adaptively. Moreover, in order to improve the performance of the ABC and balance the intensification and diversification, a probabilistic multisearch strategy is presented. Three different search equations with distinctive characters are employed using predetermined search probabilities. By implementing a new solution acceptance rule and a probabilistic multisearch approach, the intensification and diversification performance of the ABC algorithm is improved. The proposed algorithm has been tested on well-known benchmark functions of varying dimensions by comparing against novel ABC variants, as well as several recent state-of-the-art algorithms. Computational results show that the proposed ABC-SA outperforms other ABC variants and is superior to state-of-the-art algorithms proposed in the literature.

Prediction of shock initiation thresholds and ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives using mesoscale simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seokpum; Wei, Yaochi; Horie, Yasuyuki; Zhou, Min

2018-05-01

The design of new materials requires establishment of macroscopic measures of material performance as functions of microstructure. Traditionally, this process has been an empirical endeavor. An approach to computationally predict the probabilistic ignition thresholds of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) using mesoscale simulations is developed. The simulations explicitly account for microstructure, constituent properties, and interfacial responses and capture processes responsible for the development of hotspots and damage. The specific mechanisms tracked include viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, fracture, post-fracture contact, frictional heating, and heat conduction. The probabilistic analysis uses sets of statistically similar microstructure samples to directly mimic relevant experiments for quantification of statistical variations of material behavior due to inherent material heterogeneities. The particular thresholds and ignition probabilities predicted are expressed in James type and Walker-Wasley type relations, leading to the establishment of explicit analytical expressions for the ignition probability as function of loading. Specifically, the ignition thresholds corresponding to any given level of ignition probability and ignition probability maps are predicted for PBX 9404 for the loading regime of Up = 200-1200 m/s where Up is the particle speed. The predicted results are in good agreement with available experimental measurements. A parametric study also shows that binder properties can significantly affect the macroscopic ignition behavior of PBXs. The capability to computationally predict the macroscopic engineering material response relations out of material microstructures and basic constituent and interfacial properties lends itself to the design of new materials as well as the analysis of existing materials.

Estimating rare events in biochemical systems using conditional sampling.

PubMed

Sundar, V S

2017-01-28

The paper focuses on development of variance reduction strategies to estimate rare events in biochemical systems. Obtaining this probability using brute force Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with the stochastic simulation algorithm (Gillespie's method) is computationally prohibitive. To circumvent this, important sampling tools such as the weighted stochastic simulation algorithm and the doubly weighted stochastic simulation algorithm have been proposed. However, these strategies require an additional step of determining the important region to sample from, which is not straightforward for most of the problems. In this paper, we apply the subset simulation method, developed as a variance reduction tool in the context of structural engineering, to the problem of rare event estimation in biochemical systems. The main idea is that the rare event probability is expressed as a product of more frequent conditional probabilities. These conditional probabilities are estimated with high accuracy using Monte Carlo simulations, specifically the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Generating sample realizations of the state vector using the stochastic simulation algorithm is viewed as mapping the discrete-state continuous-time random process to the standard normal random variable vector. This viewpoint opens up the possibility of applying more sophisticated and efficient sampling schemes developed elsewhere to problems in stochastic chemical kinetics. The results obtained using the subset simulation method are compared with existing variance reduction strategies for a few benchmark problems, and a satisfactory improvement in computational time is demonstrated.

Results Oriented Benchmarking: The Evolution of Benchmarking at NASA from Competitive Comparisons to World Class Space Partnerships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Michael A.

1999-01-01

Informal benchmarking using personal or professional networks has taken place for many years at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognized early on, the need to formalize the benchmarking process for better utilization of resources and improved benchmarking performance. The need to compete in a faster, better, cheaper environment has been the catalyst for formalizing these efforts. A pioneering benchmarking consortium was chartered at KSC in January 1994. The consortium known as the Kennedy Benchmarking Clearinghouse (KBC), is a collaborative effort of NASA and all major KSC contractors. The charter of this consortium is to facilitate effective benchmarking, and leverage the resulting quality improvements across KSC. The KBC acts as a resource with experienced facilitators and a proven process. One of the initial actions of the KBC was to develop a holistic methodology for Center-wide benchmarking. This approach to Benchmarking integrates the best features of proven benchmarking models (i.e., Camp, Spendolini, Watson, and Balm). This cost-effective alternative to conventional Benchmarking approaches has provided a foundation for consistent benchmarking at KSC through the development of common terminology, tools, and techniques. Through these efforts a foundation and infrastructure has been built which allows short duration benchmarking studies yielding results gleaned from world class partners that can be readily implemented. The KBC has been recognized with the Silver Medal Award (in the applied research category) from the International Benchmarking Clearinghouse.

Quantification of extracellular matrix expansion by CMR in infiltrative heart disease.

PubMed

Mongeon, François-Pierre; Jerosch-Herold, Michael; Coelho-Filho, Otávio Rizzi; Blankstein, Ron; Falk, Rodney H; Kwong, Raymond Y

2012-09-01

The aim of this study was to perform direct quantification of myocardial extracellular volume fraction (ECF) with T1-weighted cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging in patients suspected to have infiltrative heart disease. Infiltrative heart disease refers to accumulation of abnormal substances within the myocardium. Qualitative assessment of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) remains the most commonly used method for CMR evaluation of patients suspected with myocardial infiltration. This technique is widely available and can be performed in a reproducible and standardized manner. However, the degree of extracellular matrix expansion due to myocardial infiltration in the intercellular space has, to date, not been amenable to noninvasive quantification with LGE. We performed 3-T CMR in 38 patients (mean age 68 ± 15 years) who were referred for assessment of infiltrative heart disease and also in 9 healthy volunteers as control subjects. The T1 quantification by Look-Locker gradient-echo before and after contrast determined segmental myocardial partition coefficients. The ECF was obtained by referencing the tissue partition coefficient for gadolinium to the plasma volume fraction in blood, derived from serum hematocrit. Cine CMR and LGE imaging in matching locations were also performed. Seventeen patients (45%) had cardiac amyloidosis (CA) (biopsy-confirmed or clinically highly probable), 20 (53%) had a non-amyloid cardiomyopathy, and 1 had lysosomal storage disease. Median global ECF was substantially higher in CA patients (0.49) compared with non-amyloid cardiomyopathy patients (0.33, p < 0.0001) and volunteers (0.24, p = 0.0001). The ECF strongly correlated with visually assessed segmental LGE (r = 0.80, p < 0.0001) and LV mass index (r = 0.69, p < 0.0001), reflecting severity of myocardial infiltration. In patients with CA, ECF was highest in segments with LGE, although it remained elevated in segments without qualitative LGE. The CMR ECF quantification identified substantial expansion of the interstitial space in patients with CA compared with volunteers. Further studies using this technique for diagnosis and assessment of the severity of myocardial infiltration are warranted. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Presence of the Corexit component dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate in Gulf of Mexico waters after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, James L.; Kanagy, Leslie K.; Furlong, Edward T.; Kanagy, Chris J.; McCoy, Jeff W.; Mason, Andrew; Lauenstein, Gunnar

2014-01-01

Between April 22 and July 15, 2010, approximately 4.9 million barrels of oil were released into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon oil well. Approximately 16% of the oil was chemically dispersed, at the surface and at 1500 m depth, using Corexit 9527 and Corexit 9500, which contain dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate (DOSS) as a major surfactant component. This was the largest documented release of oil in history at substantial depth, and the first time large quantities of dispersant (0.77 million gallons of approximately 1.9 million gallons total) were applied to a subsurface oil plume. During two cruises in late May and early June, water samples were collected at the surface and at depth for DOSS analysis. Real-time fluorimetry data was used to infer the presence of oil components to select appropriate sampling depths. Samples were stored frozen and in the dark for approximately 6 months prior to analysis by liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry with isotope-dilution quantification. The blank-limited method detection limit (0.25 μg L−1) was substantially less than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) aquatic life benchmark of 40 μg L−1. Concentrations of DOSS exceeding 200 μg L−1 were observed in one surface sample near the well site; in subsurface samples DOSS did not exceed 40 μg L−1. Although DOSS was present at high concentration in the immediate vicinity of the well where it was being continuously applied, a combination of biodegradation, photolysis, and dilution likely reduced persistence at concentrations exceeding the USEPA aquatic life benchmark beyond this immediate area.

Benchmark dose and the three Rs. Part I. Getting more information from the same number of animals.

PubMed

Slob, Wout

2014-08-01

Evaluating dose-response data using the Benchmark dose (BMD) approach rather than by the no observed adverse effect (NOAEL) approach implies a considerable step forward from the perspective of the Reduction, Replacement, and Refinement, three Rs, in particular the R of reduction: more information is obtained from the same number of animals, or, vice versa, similar information may be obtained from fewer animals. The first part of this twin paper focusses on the former, the second on the latter aspect. Regarding the former, the BMD approach provides more information from any given dose-response dataset in various ways. First, the BMDL (= BMD lower confidence bound) provides more information by its more explicit definition. Further, as compared to the NOAEL approach the BMD approach results in more statistical precision in the value of the point of departure (PoD), for deriving exposure limits. While part of the animals in the study do not directly contribute to the numerical value of a NOAEL, all animals are effectively used and do contribute to a BMDL. In addition, the BMD approach allows for combining similar datasets for the same chemical (e.g., both sexes) in a single analysis, which further increases precision. By combining a dose-response dataset with similar historical data for other chemicals, the precision can even be substantially increased. Further, the BMD approach results in more precise estimates for relative potency factors (RPFs, or TEFs). And finally, the BMD approach is not only more precise, it also allows for quantification of the precision in the BMD estimate, which is not possible in the NOAEL approach.

Toxicological benchmarks for screening potential contaminants of concern for effects on aquatic biota: 1996 revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter, G.W. II; Tsao, C.L.

1996-06-01

This report presents potential screening benchmarks for protection of aquatic life form contaminants in water. Because there is no guidance for screening for benchmarks, a set of alternative benchmarks is presented herein. This report presents the alternative benchmarks for chemicals that have been detected on the Oak Ridge Reservation. It also presents the data used to calculate the benchmarks and the sources of the data. It compares the benchmarks and discusses their relative conservatism and utility. Also included is the updates of benchmark values where appropriate, new benchmark values, secondary sources are replaced by primary sources, and a more completemore » documentation of the sources and derivation of all values are presented.« less

Uncertainty, ensembles and air quality dispersion modeling: applications and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabberdt, Walter F.; Miller, Erik

The past two decades have seen significant advances in mesoscale meteorological modeling research and applications, such as the development of sophisticated and now widely used advanced mesoscale prognostic models, large eddy simulation models, four-dimensional data assimilation, adjoint models, adaptive and targeted observational strategies, and ensemble and probabilistic forecasts. Some of these advances are now being applied to urban air quality modeling and applications. Looking forward, it is anticipated that the high-priority air quality issues for the near-to-intermediate future will likely include: (1) routine operational forecasting of adverse air quality episodes; (2) real-time high-level support to emergency response activities; and (3) quantification of model uncertainty. Special attention is focused here on the quantification of model uncertainty through the use of ensemble simulations. Application to emergency-response dispersion modeling is illustrated using an actual event that involved the accidental release of the toxic chemical oleum. Both surface footprints of mass concentration and the associated probability distributions at individual receptors are seen to provide valuable quantitative indicators of the range of expected concentrations and their associated uncertainty.

A quantitative PCR approach for quantification of functional genes involved in the degradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in contaminated soils.

PubMed

Shahsavari, Esmaeil; Aburto-Medina, Arturo; Taha, Mohamed; Ball, Andrew S

2016-01-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are major pollutants globally and due to their carcinogenic and mutagenic properties their clean-up is paramount. Bioremediation or using PAH degrading microorganisms (mainly bacteria) to degrade the pollutants represents cheap, effective methods. These PAH degraders harbor functional genes which help microorganisms use PAHs as source of food and energy. Most probable number (MPN) and plate counting methods are widely used for counting PAHs degraders; however, as culture based methods only count a small fraction (<1%) of microorganisms capable of carrying out PAH degradation, the use of culture-independent methodologies is desirable.•This protocol presents a robust, rapid and sensitive qPCR method for the quantification of the functional genes involved in the degradation of PAHs in soil samples.•This protocol enables us to screen a vast number of PAH contaminated soil samples in few hours.•This protocol provides valuable information about the natural attenuation potential of contaminated soil and can be used to monitor the bioremediation process.

Benchmark cool companions: ages and abundances for the PZ Telescopii system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, J. S.; Pavlenko, Y. V.; Ivanyuk, O.; Gallardo, J.; Jones, M. I.; Day-Jones, A. C.; Jones, H. R. A.; Ruiz, M. T.; Pinfield, D. J.; Yakovina, L.

2012-03-01

We present new ages and abundance measurements for the pre-main-sequence star PZ Telescopii (more commonly known as PZ Tel). PZ Tel was recently found to host a young and low-mass companion. Such companions, whether they are brown dwarfs or planetary systems, can attain benchmark status by detailed study of the properties of the primary, and then evolutionary and bulk characteristics can be inferred for the companion. Using Fibre-fed Extended Range Optical Spectrograph spectra, we have measured atomic abundances (e.g. Fe and Li) and chromospheric activity for PZ Tel and used these to obtain the metallicity and age estimates for the companion. We have also determined the age independently using the latest evolutionary models. We find PZ Tel A to be a rapidly rotating (v sin i= 73 ± 5 km s-1), approximately solar metallicity star [log N(Fe) =-4.37 ± 0.06 dex or [Fe/H] = 0.05 ± 0.20 dex]. We measure a non-local thermodynamic equilibrium lithium abundance of log N(Li) = 3.1 ± 0.1 dex, which from depletion models gives rise to an age of 7? Myr for the system. Our measured chromospheric activity (? of -4.12) returns an age of 26 ± 2 Myr, as does fitting pre-main-sequence evolutionary tracks (τevol= 22 ± 3 Myr), both of these are in disagreement with the lithium age. We speculate on reasons for this difference and introduce new models for lithium depletion that incorporate both rotation and magnetic field effects. We also synthesize solar, metal-poor and metal-rich substellar evolutionary models to better determine the bulk properties of PZ Tel B, showing that PZ Tel B is probably more massive than previous estimates, meaning the companion is not a giant exoplanet, even though a planetary-like formation origin can go some way to describing the distribution of benchmark binaries currently known. We show how PZ Tel B compares to other currently known age and metallicity benchmark systems and try to empirically test the effects of dust opacity as a function of metallicity on the near-infrared colours of brown dwarfs. Current models suggest that in the near-infrared observations are more sensitive to low-mass companions orbiting more metal rich stars. We also look for trends between infrared photometry and metallicity amongst a growing population of substellar benchmark objects, and identify the need for more data in mass-age-metallicity parameter space.

Benchmarking in emergency health systems.

PubMed

Kennedy, Marcus P; Allen, Jacqueline; Allen, Greg

2002-12-01

This paper discusses the role of benchmarking as a component of quality management. It describes the historical background of benchmarking, its competitive origin and the requirement in today's health environment for a more collaborative approach. The classical 'functional and generic' types of benchmarking are discussed with a suggestion to adopt a different terminology that describes the purpose and practicalities of benchmarking. Benchmarking is not without risks. The consequence of inappropriate focus and the need for a balanced overview of process is explored. The competition that is intrinsic to benchmarking is questioned and the negative impact it may have on improvement strategies in poorly performing organizations is recognized. The difficulty in achieving cross-organizational validity in benchmarking is emphasized, as is the need to scrutinize benchmarking measures. The cost effectiveness of benchmarking projects is questioned and the concept of 'best value, best practice' in an environment of fixed resources is examined.

Structural Analyses of Stirling Power Convertor Heater Head for Long-Term Reliability, Durability, and Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.; Shah, Ashwin; Arya, Vinod K.; Krause, David L.; Bartolotta, Paul A.

2002-01-01

Deep-space missions require onboard electric power systems with reliable design lifetimes of up to 10 yr and beyond. A high-efficiency Stirling radioisotope power system is a likely candidate for future deep-space missions and Mars rover applications. To ensure ample durability, the structurally critical heater head of the Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analyses of operating temperatures (up to 650 C), stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. Durability predictions are presented in terms of the probability of survival. A benchmark structural testing program has commenced to support the analyses. This report presents the current status of durability assessments.

Galileo Probe forebody thermal protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, M. J.; Davy, W. C.

1981-01-01

Material response solutions for the forebody heat shield on the candidate 310-kg Galileo Probe are presented. A charring material ablation analysis predicts thermochemical surface recession, insulation thickness, and total required heat shield mass. Benchmark shock layer solutions provide the imposed entry heating environments on the ablating surface. Heat shield sizing results are given for a nominal entry into modeled nominal and cool-heavy Jovian atmospheres, and for two heat-shield property models. The nominally designed heat shield requires a mass of at least 126 kg and would require an additional 13 kg to survive entry into the less probable cool-heavy atmosphere. The material-property model with a 30% surface reflectance reduces these mass requirements by as much as 16%.

The NAS parallel benchmarks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, David (Editor); Barton, John (Editor); Lasinski, Thomas (Editor); Simon, Horst (Editor)

1993-01-01

A new set of benchmarks was developed for the performance evaluation of highly parallel supercomputers. These benchmarks consist of a set of kernels, the 'Parallel Kernels,' and a simulated application benchmark. Together they mimic the computation and data movement characteristics of large scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications. The principal distinguishing feature of these benchmarks is their 'pencil and paper' specification - all details of these benchmarks are specified only algorithmically. In this way many of the difficulties associated with conventional benchmarking approaches on highly parallel systems are avoided.

Benchmarking and Performance Measurement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Town, J. Stephen

This paper defines benchmarking and its relationship to quality management, describes a project which applied the technique in a library context, and explores the relationship between performance measurement and benchmarking. Numerous benchmarking methods contain similar elements: deciding what to benchmark; identifying partners; gathering…

The effects of cracks on the quantification of the cancellous bone fabric tensor in fossil and archaeological specimens: a simulation study.

PubMed

Bishop, Peter J; Clemente, Christofer J; Hocknull, Scott A; Barrett, Rod S; Lloyd, David G

2017-03-01

Cancellous bone is very sensitive to its prevailing mechanical environment, and study of its architecture has previously aided interpretations of locomotor biomechanics in extinct animals or archaeological populations. However, quantification of architectural features may be compromised by poor preservation in fossil and archaeological specimens, such as post mortem cracking or fracturing. In this study, the effects of post mortem cracks on the quantification of cancellous bone fabric were investigated through the simulation of cracks in otherwise undamaged modern bone samples. The effect on both scalar (degree of fabric anisotropy, fabric elongation index) and vector (principal fabric directions) variables was assessed through comparing the results of architectural analyses of cracked vs. non-cracked samples. Error was found to decrease as the relative size of the crack decreased, and as the orientation of the crack approached the orientation of the primary fabric direction. However, even in the best-case scenario simulated, error remained substantial, with at least 18% of simulations showing a > 10% error when scalar variables were considered, and at least 6.7% of simulations showing a > 10° error when vector variables were considered. As a 10% (scalar) or 10° (vector) difference is probably too large for reliable interpretation of a fossil or archaeological specimen, these results suggest that cracks should be avoided if possible when analysing cancellous bone architecture in such specimens. © 2016 Anatomical Society.

Development of a rapid method to quantify Salmonella Typhimurium using a combination of MPN with qPCR and a shortened time incubation.

PubMed

Kim, Sun Ae; Park, Si Hong; Lee, Sang In; Ricke, Steven C

2017-08-01

A novel method was developed for the specific quantification of S. Typhimurium using a most-probable-number (MPN) combined with qPCR and a shortened incubation time (MPN-qPCR-SIT). For S. Typhimurium enumeration, dilutions of samples were transferred into three wells on a microtiter plate and the plate was incubated for 4 h. The S. Typhimurium presence in the wells was identified using a qPCR and populations were determined based on an MPN calculation. The R 2 between the MPN-qPCR-SIT and conventional MPN exhibited a high level of correlation (0.9335-0.9752), suggesting that the MPN-qPCR-SIT offers a reliable alternative method for S. Typhimurium quantification. Although plating and qPCR were limited in their ability to detect low levels of S. Typhimurium (e.g. 0.18 log MPN/ml), these levels could be successfully detected with the MPN-qPCR-SIT. Chicken breast samples inoculated with S. Typhimurium were incubated at 0, 4, and 24 h and incubated samples were subjected to microbiome analysis. Levels of Salmonella and Enterobacteriaceae increased significantly with incubation time. The obvious benefits of the MPN-qPCR-SIT are: 1) a further confirmation step is not required, 2) the detection limit is as low as conventional MPN, but 3) is more rapid, requiring approximately 7 h to simultaneously complete quantification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Quantification of Evapotranspiration and Infiltration from Modeling and Historic Time Series at the Savannah River F-Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faybishenko, B.; Flach, G. P.

2012-12-01

The objectives of this presentation are: (a) to illustrate the application of Monte Carlo and fuzzy-probabilistic approaches for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in predictions of potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (ET), and infiltration (I), using uncertain hydrological or meteorological time series data, and (b) to compare the results of these calculations with those from field measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site (SRS), near Aiken, South Carolina, USA. The UQ calculations include the evaluation of aleatory (parameter uncertainty) and epistemic (model) uncertainties. The effect of aleatory uncertainty is expressed by assigning the probability distributions of input parameters, using historical monthly averaged data from the meteorological station at the SRS. The combined effect of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on the UQ of PET, ET, and Iis then expressed by aggregating the results of calculations from multiple models using a p-box and fuzzy numbers. The uncertainty in PETis calculated using the Bair-Robertson, Blaney-Criddle, Caprio, Hargreaves-Samani, Hamon, Jensen-Haise, Linacre, Makkink, Priestly-Taylor, Penman, Penman-Monteith, Thornthwaite, and Turc models. Then, ET is calculated from the modified Budyko model, followed by calculations of I from the water balance equation. We show that probabilistic and fuzzy-probabilistic calculations using multiple models generate the PET, ET, and Idistributions, which are well within the range of field measurements. We also show that a selection of a subset of models can be used to constrain the uncertainty quantification of PET, ET, and I.

Systematic influences of gamma-ray spectrometry data near the decision threshold for radioactivity measurements in the environment.

PubMed

Zorko, Benjamin; Korun, Matjaž; Mora Canadas, Juan Carlos; Nicoulaud-Gouin, Valerie; Chyly, Pavol; Blixt Buhr, Anna Maria; Lager, Charlotte; Aquilonius, Karin; Krajewski, Pawel

2016-07-01

Several methods for reporting outcomes of gamma-ray spectrometric measurements of environmental samples for dose calculations are presented and discussed. The measurement outcomes can be reported as primary measurement results, primary measurement results modified according to the quantification limit, best estimates obtained by the Bayesian posterior (ISO 11929), best estimates obtained by the probability density distribution resembling shifting, and the procedure recommended by the European Commission (EC). The annual dose is calculated from the arithmetic average using any of these five procedures. It was shown that the primary measurement results modified according to the quantification limit could lead to an underestimation of the annual dose. On the other hand the best estimates lead to an overestimation of the annual dose. The annual doses calculated from the measurement outcomes obtained according to the EC's recommended procedure, which does not cope with the uncertainties, fluctuate between an under- and overestimation, depending on the frequency of the measurement results that are larger than the limit of detection. In the extreme case, when no measurement results above the detection limit occur, the average over primary measurement results modified according to the quantification limit underestimates the average over primary measurement results for about 80%. The average over best estimates calculated according the procedure resembling shifting overestimates the average over primary measurement results for 35%, the average obtained by the Bayesian posterior for 85% and the treatment according to the EC recommendation for 89%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative characterization of fatty liver disease using x-ray scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsharkawy, Wafaa B.; Elshemey, Wael M.

2013-11-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a dynamic condition in which fat abnormally accumulates within the hepatocytes. It is believed to be a marker of risk of later chronic liver diseases, such as liver cirrhosis and carcinoma. The fat content in liver biopsies determines its validity for liver transplantation. Transplantation of livers with severe NAFLD is associated with a high risk of primary non-function. Moreover, NAFLD is recognized as a clinically important feature that influences patient morbidity and mortality after hepatic resection. Unfortunately, there is a lack in a precise, reliable and reproducible method for quantification of NAFLD. This work suggests a method for the quantification of NAFLD. The method is based on the fact that fatty liver tissue would have a characteristic x-ray scattering profile with a relatively intense fat peak at a momentum transfer value of 1.1 nm-1 compared to a soft tissue peak at 1.6 nm-1. The fat content in normal and fatty liver is plotted against three profile characterization parameters (ratio of peak intensities, ratio of area under peaks and ratio of area under fat peak to total profile area) for measured and Monte Carlo simulated x-ray scattering profiles. Results show a high linear dependence (R2>0.9) of the characterization parameters on the liver fat content with a reported high correlation coefficient (>0.9) between measured and simulated data. These results indicate that the current method probably offers reliable quantification of fatty liver disease.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

A Bayesian Approach to Evaluating Consistency between Climate Model Output and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braverman, A. J.; Cressie, N.; Teixeira, J.

2010-12-01

Like other scientific and engineering problems that involve physical modeling of complex systems, climate models can be evaluated and diagnosed by comparing their output to observations of similar quantities. Though the global remote sensing data record is relatively short by climate research standards, these data offer opportunities to evaluate model predictions in new ways. For example, remote sensing data are spatially and temporally dense enough to provide distributional information that goes beyond simple moments to allow quantification of temporal and spatial dependence structures. In this talk, we propose a new method for exploiting these rich data sets using a Bayesian paradigm. For a collection of climate models, we calculate posterior probabilities its members best represent the physical system each seeks to reproduce. The posterior probability is based on the likelihood that a chosen summary statistic, computed from observations, would be obtained when the model's output is considered as a realization from a stochastic process. By exploring how posterior probabilities change with different statistics, we may paint a more quantitative and complete picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the models relative to the observations. We demonstrate our method using model output from the CMIP archive, and observations from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder.

Quantification of EEG reactivity in comatose patients

PubMed Central

Hermans, Mathilde C.; Westover, M. Brandon; van Putten, Michel J.A.M.; Hirsch, Lawrence J.; Gaspard, Nicolas

2016-01-01

Objective EEG reactivity is an important predictor of outcome in comatose patients. However, visual analysis of reactivity is prone to subjectivity and may benefit from quantitative approaches. Methods In EEG segments recorded during reactivity testing in 59 comatose patients, 13 quantitative EEG parameters were used to compare the spectral characteristics of 1-minute segments before and after the onset of stimulation (spectral temporal symmetry). Reactivity was quantified with probability values estimated using combinations of these parameters. The accuracy of probability values as a reactivity classifier was evaluated against the consensus assessment of three expert clinical electroencephalographers using visual analysis. Results The binary classifier assessing spectral temporal symmetry in four frequency bands (delta, theta, alpha and beta) showed best accuracy (Median AUC: 0.95) and was accompanied by substantial agreement with the individual opinion of experts (Gwet’s AC1: 65–70%), at least as good as inter-expert agreement (AC1: 55%). Probability values also reflected the degree of reactivity, as measured by the inter-experts’ agreement regarding reactivity for each individual case. Conclusion Automated quantitative EEG approaches based on probabilistic description of spectral temporal symmetry reliably quantify EEG reactivity. Significance Quantitative EEG may be useful for evaluating reactivity in comatose patients, offering increased objectivity. PMID:26183757

Neighbor-Dependent Ramachandran Probability Distributions of Amino Acids Developed from a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Model

PubMed Central

Mitra, Rajib; Jordan, Michael I.; Dunbrack, Roland L.

2010-01-01

Distributions of the backbone dihedral angles of proteins have been studied for over 40 years. While many statistical analyses have been presented, only a handful of probability densities are publicly available for use in structure validation and structure prediction methods. The available distributions differ in a number of important ways, which determine their usefulness for various purposes. These include: 1) input data size and criteria for structure inclusion (resolution, R-factor, etc.); 2) filtering of suspect conformations and outliers using B-factors or other features; 3) secondary structure of input data (e.g., whether helix and sheet are included; whether beta turns are included); 4) the method used for determining probability densities ranging from simple histograms to modern nonparametric density estimation; and 5) whether they include nearest neighbor effects on the distribution of conformations in different regions of the Ramachandran map. In this work, Ramachandran probability distributions are presented for residues in protein loops from a high-resolution data set with filtering based on calculated electron densities. Distributions for all 20 amino acids (with cis and trans proline treated separately) have been determined, as well as 420 left-neighbor and 420 right-neighbor dependent distributions. The neighbor-independent and neighbor-dependent probability densities have been accurately estimated using Bayesian nonparametric statistical analysis based on the Dirichlet process. In particular, we used hierarchical Dirichlet process priors, which allow sharing of information between densities for a particular residue type and different neighbor residue types. The resulting distributions are tested in a loop modeling benchmark with the program Rosetta, and are shown to improve protein loop conformation prediction significantly. The distributions are available at http://dunbrack.fccc.edu/hdp. PMID:20442867

Toxicological Benchmarks for Screening of Potential Contaminants of Concern for Effects on Aquatic Biota on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter, G.W., II

1993-01-01

One of the initial stages in ecological risk assessment of hazardous waste sites is the screening of contaminants to determine which, if any, of them are worthy of further consideration; this process is termed contaminant screening. Screening is performed by comparing concentrations in ambient media to benchmark concentrations that are either indicative of a high likelihood of significant effects (upper screening benchmarks) or of a very low likelihood of significant effects (lower screening benchmarks). Exceedance of an upper screening benchmark indicates that the chemical in question is clearly of concern and remedial actions are likely to be needed. Exceedance ofmore » a lower screening benchmark indicates that a contaminant is of concern unless other information indicates that the data are unreliable or the comparison is inappropriate. Chemicals with concentrations below the lower benchmark are not of concern if the ambient data are judged to be adequate. This report presents potential screening benchmarks for protection of aquatic life from contaminants in water. Because there is no guidance for screening benchmarks, a set of alternative benchmarks is presented herein. The alternative benchmarks are based on different conceptual approaches to estimating concentrations causing significant effects. For the upper screening benchmark, there are the acute National Ambient Water Quality Criteria (NAWQC) and the Secondary Acute Values (SAV). The SAV concentrations are values estimated with 80% confidence not to exceed the unknown acute NAWQC for those chemicals with no NAWQC. The alternative chronic benchmarks are the chronic NAWQC, the Secondary Chronic Value (SCV), the lowest chronic values for fish and daphnids, the lowest EC20 for fish and daphnids from chronic toxicity tests, the estimated EC20 for a sensitive species, and the concentration estimated to cause a 20% reduction in the recruit abundance of largemouth bass. It is recommended that ambient chemical concentrations be compared to all of these benchmarks. If NAWQC are exceeded, the chemicals must be contaminants of concern because the NAWQC are applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). If NAWQC are not exceeded, but other benchmarks are, contaminants should be selected on the basis of the number of benchmarks exceeded and the conservatism of the particular benchmark values, as discussed in the text. To the extent that toxicity data are available, this report presents the alternative benchmarks for chemicals that have been detected on the Oak Ridge Reservation. It also presents the data used to calculate the benchmarks and the sources of the data. It compares the benchmarks and discusses their relative conservatism and utility. This report supersedes a prior aquatic benchmarks report (Suter and Mabrey 1994). It adds two new types of benchmarks. It also updates the benchmark values where appropriate, adds some new benchmark values, replaces secondary sources with primary sources, and provides more complete documentation of the sources and derivation of all values.« less

The KMAT: Benchmarking Knowledge Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Jager, Martha

Provides an overview of knowledge management and benchmarking, including the benefits and methods of benchmarking (e.g., competitive, cooperative, collaborative, and internal benchmarking). Arthur Andersen's KMAT (Knowledge Management Assessment Tool) is described. The KMAT is a collaborative benchmarking tool, designed to help organizations make…

Analytic Approximations to the Free Boundary and Multi-dimensional Problems in Financial Derivatives Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, Chun Sing

This thesis studies two types of problems in financial derivatives pricing. The first type is the free boundary problem, which can be formulated as a partial differential equation (PDE) subject to a set of free boundary condition. Although the functional form of the free boundary condition is given explicitly, the location of the free boundary is unknown and can only be determined implicitly by imposing continuity conditions on the solution. Two specific problems are studied in details, namely the valuation of fixed-rate mortgages and CEV American options. The second type is the multi-dimensional problem, which involves multiple correlated stochastic variables and their governing PDE. One typical problem we focus on is the valuation of basket-spread options, whose underlying asset prices are driven by correlated geometric Brownian motions (GBMs). Analytic approximate solutions are derived for each of these three problems. For each of the two free boundary problems, we propose a parametric moving boundary to approximate the unknown free boundary, so that the original problem transforms into a moving boundary problem which can be solved analytically. The governing parameter of the moving boundary is determined by imposing the first derivative continuity condition on the solution. The analytic form of the solution allows the price and the hedging parameters to be computed very efficiently. When compared against the benchmark finite-difference method, the computational time is significantly reduced without compromising the accuracy. The multi-stage scheme further allows the approximate results to systematically converge to the benchmark results as one recasts the moving boundary into a piecewise smooth continuous function. For the multi-dimensional problem, we generalize the Kirk (1995) approximate two-asset spread option formula to the case of multi-asset basket-spread option. Since the final formula is in closed form, all the hedging parameters can also be derived in closed form. Numerical examples demonstrate that the pricing and hedging errors are in general less than 1% relative to the benchmark prices obtained by numerical integration or Monte Carlo simulation. By exploiting an explicit relationship between the option price and the underlying probability distribution, we further derive an approximate distribution function for the general basket-spread variable. It can be used to approximate the transition probability distribution of any linear combination of correlated GBMs. Finally, an implicit perturbation is applied to reduce the pricing errors by factors of up to 100. When compared against the existing methods, the basket-spread option formula coupled with the implicit perturbation turns out to be one of the most robust and accurate approximation methods.

The NAS parallel benchmarks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, D. H.; Barszcz, E.; Barton, J. T.; Carter, R. L.; Lasinski, T. A.; Browning, D. S.; Dagum, L.; Fatoohi, R. A.; Frederickson, P. O.; Schreiber, R. S.

1991-01-01

A new set of benchmarks has been developed for the performance evaluation of highly parallel supercomputers in the framework of the NASA Ames Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation (NAS) Program. These consist of five 'parallel kernel' benchmarks and three 'simulated application' benchmarks. Together they mimic the computation and data movement characteristics of large-scale computational fluid dynamics applications. The principal distinguishing feature of these benchmarks is their 'pencil and paper' specification-all details of these benchmarks are specified only algorithmically. In this way many of the difficulties associated with conventional benchmarking approaches on highly parallel systems are avoided.

Probability and Visual Aids for Assessing Intervention Effectiveness in Single-Case Designs: A Field Test.

PubMed

Manolov, Rumen; Jamieson, Matthew; Evans, Jonathan J; Sierra, Vicenta

2015-09-01

Single-case data analysis still relies heavily on visual inspection, and, at the same time, it is not clear to what extent the results of different quantitative procedures converge in identifying an intervention effect and its magnitude when applied to the same data; this is the type of evidence provided here for two procedures. One of the procedures, included due to the importance of providing objective criteria to visual analysts, is a visual aid fitting and projecting split-middle trend while taking into account data variability. The other procedure converts several different metrics into probabilities making their results comparable. In the present study, we expore to what extend these two procedures coincide in the magnitude of intervention effect taking place in a set of studies stemming from a recent meta-analysis. The procedures concur to a greater extent with the values of the indices computed and with each other and, to a lesser extent, with our own visual analysis. For distinguishing smaller from larger effects, the probability-based approach seems somewhat better suited. Moreover, the results of the field test suggest that the latter is a reasonably good mechanism for translating different metrics into similar labels. User friendly R code is provided for promoting the use of the visual aid, together with a quantification based on nonoverlap and the label provided by the probability approach. © The Author(s) 2015.

What Randomized Benchmarking Actually Measures

DOE PAGES

Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Young, Kevin; ...

2017-09-28

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is widely used to measure an error rate of a set of quantum gates, by performing random circuits that would do nothing if the gates were perfect. In the limit of no finite-sampling error, the exponential decay rate of the observable survival probabilities, versus circuit length, yields a single error metric r. For Clifford gates with arbitrary small errors described by process matrices, r was believed to reliably correspond to the mean, over all Clifford gates, of the average gate infidelity between the imperfect gates and their ideal counterparts. We show that this quantity is not amore » well-defined property of a physical gate set. It depends on the representations used for the imperfect and ideal gates, and the variant typically computed in the literature can differ from r by orders of magnitude. We present new theories of the RB decay that are accurate for all small errors describable by process matrices, and show that the RB decay curve is a simple exponential for all such errors. Here, these theories allow explicit computation of the error rate that RB measures (r), but as far as we can tell it does not correspond to the infidelity of a physically allowed (completely positive) representation of the imperfect gates.« less

A probabilistic framework for the cover effect in bedrock erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turowski, Jens M.; Hodge, Rebecca

2017-06-01

The cover effect in fluvial bedrock erosion is a major control on bedrock channel morphology and long-term channel dynamics. Here, we suggest a probabilistic framework for the description of the cover effect that can be applied to field, laboratory, and modelling data and thus allows the comparison of results from different sources. The framework describes the formation of sediment cover as a function of the probability of sediment being deposited on already alluviated areas of the bed. We define benchmark cases and suggest physical interpretations of deviations from these benchmarks. Furthermore, we develop a reach-scale model for sediment transfer in a bedrock channel and use it to clarify the relations between the sediment mass residing on the bed, the exposed bedrock fraction, and the transport stage. We derive system timescales and investigate cover response to cyclic perturbations. The model predicts that bedrock channels can achieve grade in steady state by adjusting bed cover. Thus, bedrock channels have at least two characteristic timescales of response. Over short timescales, the degree of bed cover is adjusted such that the supplied sediment load can just be transported, while over long timescales, channel morphology evolves such that the bedrock incision rate matches the tectonic uplift or base-level lowering rate.

Using benchmarking to identify inter-centre differences in persistent ductus arteriosus treatment: can we improve outcome?

PubMed

Jansen, Esther J S; Dijkman, Koen P; van Lingen, Richard A; de Vries, Willem B; Vijlbrief, Daniel C; de Boode, Willem P; Andriessen, Peter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to identify inter-centre differences in persistent ductus arteriosus treatment and their related outcomes. Materials and methods We carried out a retrospective, multicentre study including infants between 24+0 and 27+6 weeks of gestation in the period between 2010 and 2011. In all centres, echocardiography was used as the standard procedure to diagnose a patent ductus arteriosus and to document ductal closure. In total, 367 preterm infants were included. All four participating neonatal ICU had a comparable number of preterm infants; however, differences were observed in the incidence of treatment (33-63%), choice and dosing of medication (ibuprofen or indomethacin), number of pharmacological courses (1-4), and the need for surgical ligation after failure of pharmacological treatment (8-52%). Despite the differences in treatment, we found no difference in short-term morbidity between the centres. Adjusted mortality showed independent risk contribution of gestational age, birth weight, ductal ligation, and perinatal centre. Using benchmarking as a tool identified inter-centre differences. In these four perinatal centres, the factors that explained the differences in patent ductus arteriosus treatment are quite complex. Timing, choice of medication, and dosing are probably important determinants for successful patent ductus arteriosus closure.

The randomized benchmarking number is not what you think it is

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Blume-Kohout, Robin; Sarovar, Mohan; Young, Kevin

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is a widely used technique for characterizing a gate set, whereby random sequences of gates are used to probe the average behavior of the gate set. The gates are chosen to ideally compose to the identity, and the rate of decay in the survival probability of an initial state with increasing length sequences is extracted from a set of experiments - this is the `RB number'. For reasonably well-behaved noise and particular gate sets, it has been claimed that the RB number is a reliable estimate of the average gate fidelity (AGF) of each noisy gate to the ideal target unitary, averaged over all gates in the set. Contrary to this widely held view, we show that this is not the case. We show that there are physically relevant situations, in which RB was thought to be provably reliable, where the RB number is many orders of magnitude away from the AGF. These results have important implications for interpreting the RB protocol, and immediate consequences for many advanced RB techniques. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

On the distribution of career longevity and the evolution of home-run prowess in professional baseball

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Alexander M.; Jung, Woo-Sung; Stanley, H. Eugene

2008-09-01

Statistical analysis is a major aspect of baseball, from player averages to historical benchmarks and records. Much of baseball fanfare is based around players exceeding the norm, some in a single game and others over a long career. Career statistics serve as a metric for classifying players and establishing their historical legacy. However, the concept of records and benchmarks assumes that the level of competition in baseball is stationary in time. Here we show that power law probability density functions, a hallmark of many complex systems that are driven by competition, govern career longevity in baseball. We also find similar power laws in the density functions of all major performance metrics for pitchers and batters. The use of performance-enhancing drugs has a dark history, emerging as a problem for both amateur and professional sports. We find statistical evidence consistent with performance-enhancing drugs in the analysis of home runs hit by players in the last 25 years. This is corroborated by the findings of the Mitchell Report (2007), a two-year investigation into the use of illegal steroids in Major League Baseball, which recently revealed that over 5 percent of Major League Baseball players tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in an anonymous 2003 survey.

Review of pathogen treatment reductions for onsite non ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Communities face a challenge when implementing onsite reuse of collected waters for non-potable purposes given the lack of national microbial standards. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) can be used to predict the pathogen risks associated with the non-potable reuse of onsite-collected waters; the present work reviewed the relevant QMRA literature to prioritize knowledge gaps and identify health-protective pathogen treatment reduction targets. The review indicated that ingestion of untreated, onsite-collected graywater, rainwater, seepage water and stormwater from a variety of exposure routes resulted in gastrointestinal infection risks greater than the traditional acceptable level of risk. We found no QMRAs that estimated the pathogen risks associated with onsite, non-potable reuse of blackwater. Pathogen treatment reduction targets for non-potable, onsite reuse that included a suite of reference pathogens (i.e., including relevant bacterial, protozoan, and viral hazards) were limited to graywater (for a limited set of domestic uses) and stormwater (for domestic and municipal uses). These treatment reductions corresponded with the health benchmark of a probability of infection or illness of 10−3 per person per year or less. The pathogen treatment reduction targets varied depending on the target health benchmark, reference pathogen, source water, and water reuse application. Overall, there remains a need for pathogen reduction targets that are heal

42 CFR 440.335 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. 440... and Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.335 Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. (a) Aggregate actuarial value. Benchmark-equivalent coverage is health benefits coverage that has an aggregate...

42 CFR 440.335 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. 440... and Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.335 Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. (a) Aggregate actuarial value. Benchmark-equivalent coverage is health benefits coverage that has an aggregate...

Doppler Temperature Coefficient Calculations Using Adjoint-Weighted Tallies and Continuous Energy Cross Sections in MCNP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, Matthew Alejandro

The calculation of the thermal neutron Doppler temperature reactivity feedback co-efficient, a key parameter in the design and safe operation of advanced reactors, using first order perturbation theory in continuous energy Monte Carlo codes is challenging as the continuous energy adjoint flux is not readily available. Traditional approaches of obtaining the adjoint flux attempt to invert the random walk process as well as require data corresponding to all temperatures and their respective temperature derivatives within the system in order to accurately calculate the Doppler temperature feedback. A new method has been developed using adjoint-weighted tallies and On-The-Fly (OTF) generated continuous energy cross sections within the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP6) transport code. The adjoint-weighted tallies are generated during the continuous energy k-eigenvalue Monte Carlo calculation. The weighting is based upon the iterated fission probability interpretation of the adjoint flux, which is the steady state population in a critical nuclear reactor caused by a neutron introduced at that point in phase space. The adjoint-weighted tallies are produced in a forward calculation and do not require an inversion of the random walk. The OTF cross section database uses a high order functional expansion between points on a user-defined energy-temperature mesh in which the coefficients with respect to a polynomial fitting in temperature are stored. The coefficients of the fits are generated before run- time and called upon during the simulation to produce cross sections at any given energy and temperature. The polynomial form of the OTF cross sections allows the possibility of obtaining temperature derivatives of the cross sections on-the-fly. The use of Monte Carlo sampling of adjoint-weighted tallies and the capability of computing derivatives of continuous energy cross sections with respect to temperature are used to calculate the Doppler temperature coefficient in a research version of MCNP6. Temperature feedback results from the cross sections themselves, changes in the probability density functions, as well as changes in the density of the materials. The focus of this work is specific to the Doppler temperature feedback which result from Doppler broadening of cross sections as well as changes in the probability density function within the scattering kernel. This method is compared against published results using Mosteller's numerical benchmark to show accurate evaluations of the Doppler temperature coefficient, fuel assembly calculations, and a benchmark solution based on the heavy gas model for free-gas elastic scattering. An infinite medium benchmark for neutron free gas elastic scattering for large scattering ratios and constant absorption cross section has been developed using the heavy gas model. An exact closed form solution for the neutron energy spectrum is obtained in terms of the confluent hypergeometric function and compared against spectra for the free gas scattering model in MCNP6. Results show a quick increase in convergence of the analytic energy spectrum to the MCNP6 code with increasing target size, showing absolute relative differences of less than 5% for neutrons scattering with carbon. The analytic solution has been generalized to accommodate piecewise constant in energy absorption cross section to produce temperature feedback. Results reinforce the constraints in which heavy gas theory may be applied resulting in a significant target size to accommodate increasing cross section structure. The energy dependent piecewise constant cross section heavy gas model was used to produce a benchmark calculation of the Doppler temperature coefficient to show accurate calculations when using the adjoint-weighted method. Results show the Doppler temperature coefficient using adjoint weighting and cross section derivatives accurately obtains the correct solution within statistics as well as reduce computer runtimes by a factor of 50.

Dispersal and individual quality in a long lived species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.; Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

The idea of differences in individual quality has been put forward in numerous long-term studies in long-lived species to explain differences in lifetime production among individuals. Despite the important role of individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demography, population dynamics and life history theory, the idea of 'individual quality' is elusive. It is sometimes assumed to be a static or dynamic individual characteristic. When considered as a dynamic trait, it is sometimes assumed to vary deterministically or stochastically, or to be confounded with the characteristics of the habitat. We addressed heterogeneity in reproductive performance among individuals established in higher-quality habitat in a long-lived seabird species. We used approaches to statistical inference based on individual random effects permitting quantification of heterogeneity in populations and assessment of individual variation from the population mean. We found evidence of heterogeneity in breeding probability, not success probability. We assessed the influence of dispersal on individual reproductive potential. Dispersal is likely to be destabilizing in species with high site and mate fidelity. We detected heterogeneity after dispersal, not before. Individuals may perform well regardless of quality before destabilization, including those that recruited in higher-quality habitat by chance, but only higher-quality individuals may be able to overcome the consequences of dispersal. Importantly, results differed when accounting for individual heterogeneity (an increase in mean breeding probability when individuals dispersed), or not (a decrease in mean breeding probability). In the latter case, the decrease in mean breeding probability may result from a substantial decrease in breeding probability in a few individuals and a slight increase in others. In other words, the pattern observed at the population mean level may not reflect what happens in the majority of individuals.

42 CFR 440.330 - Benchmark health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Benchmark health benefits coverage. 440.330 Section 440.330 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.330 Benchmark health benefits coverage. Benchmark coverage is health...

Predicting Ligand Binding Sites on Protein Surfaces by 3-Dimensional Probability Density Distributions of Interacting Atoms

PubMed Central

Jian, Jhih-Wei; Elumalai, Pavadai; Pitti, Thejkiran; Wu, Chih Yuan; Tsai, Keng-Chang; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Peng, Hung-Pin; Yang, An-Suei

2016-01-01

Predicting ligand binding sites (LBSs) on protein structures, which are obtained either from experimental or computational methods, is a useful first step in functional annotation or structure-based drug design for the protein structures. In this work, the structure-based machine learning algorithm ISMBLab-LIG was developed to predict LBSs on protein surfaces with input attributes derived from the three-dimensional probability density maps of interacting atoms, which were reconstructed on the query protein surfaces and were relatively insensitive to local conformational variations of the tentative ligand binding sites. The prediction accuracy of the ISMBLab-LIG predictors is comparable to that of the best LBS predictors benchmarked on several well-established testing datasets. More importantly, the ISMBLab-LIG algorithm has substantial tolerance to the prediction uncertainties of computationally derived protein structure models. As such, the method is particularly useful for predicting LBSs not only on experimental protein structures without known LBS templates in the database but also on computationally predicted model protein structures with structural uncertainties in the tentative ligand binding sites. PMID:27513851

Radiation Transport in Random Media With Large Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, Aaron; Prinja, Anil; Franke, Brian

2017-09-01

Neutral particle transport in media exhibiting large and complex material property spatial variation is modeled by representing cross sections as lognormal random functions of space and generated through a nonlinear memory-less transformation of a Gaussian process with covariance uniquely determined by the covariance of the cross section. A Karhunen-Loève decomposition of the Gaussian process is implemented to effciently generate realizations of the random cross sections and Woodcock Monte Carlo used to transport particles on each realization and generate benchmark solutions for the mean and variance of the particle flux as well as probability densities of the particle reflectance and transmittance. A computationally effcient stochastic collocation method is implemented to directly compute the statistical moments such as the mean and variance, while a polynomial chaos expansion in conjunction with stochastic collocation provides a convenient surrogate model that also produces probability densities of output quantities of interest. Extensive numerical testing demonstrates that use of stochastic reduced-order modeling provides an accurate and cost-effective alternative to random sampling for particle transport in random media.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help MOSWOC forecasters view verification results in near real-time; plans to objectively assess flare forecasts under the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project; and summarise ISES efforts to achieve consensus on verification.

Characterization of drop aerodynamic fragmentation in the bag and sheet-thinning regimes by crossed-beam, two-view, digital in-line holography

DOE PAGES

Guildenbecher, Daniel R.; Gao, Jian; Chen, Jun; ...

2017-04-19

When a spherical liquid drop is subjected to a step change in relative gas velocity, aerodynamic forces lead to drop deformation and possible breakup into a number of secondary fragments. In order to investigate this flow, a digital in-line holography (DIH) diagnostic is proposed which enables rapid quantification of spatial statistics with limited experimental repetition. To overcome the high uncertainty in the depth direction experienced in previous applications of DIH, a crossed-beam, two-view configuration is introduced. With appropriate calibration, this diagnostic is shown to provide accurate quantification of fragment sizes, three-dimensional positions and three-component velocities in a large measurement volume.more » We apply these capabilities in order to investigate the aerodynamic breakup of drops at two non-dimensional Weber numbers, We, corresponding to the bag (We = 14) and sheet-thinning (We = 55) regimes. Ensemble average results show the evolution of fragment size and velocity statistics during the course of breakup. Our results indicate that mean fragment sizes increase throughout the course of breakup. For the bag breakup case, the evolution of a multi-mode fragment size probability density is observed. This is attributed to separate fragmentation mechanisms for the bag and rim structures. In contrast, for the sheet-thinning case, the fragment size probability density shows only one distinct peak indicating a single fragmentation mechanism. Compared to previous related investigations of this flow, many orders of magnitude more fragments are measured per condition, resulting in a significant improvement in data fidelity. For this reason, this experimental dataset is likely to provide new opportunities for detailed validation of analytic and computational models of this flow.« less

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.

2016-12-01

The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

Quantification of atopy and the probability of rhinitis in preschool children: a population-based birth cohort study.

PubMed

Marinho, S; Simpson, A; Söderström, L; Woodcock, A; Ahlstedt, S; Custovic, A

2007-12-01

Atopy quantification using IgE levels/skin test diameter (SPT-MWD) may better predict the expression of rhinitis than using atopy as a dichotomous variable. To investigate the association between the presence, temporal pattern and severity of rhinitis in preschool children and specific IgE levels/SPT-MWDs. Children were followed prospectively to age 5 years in a whole-population birth cohort study. We administered questionnaires (n = 815), skin prick tested children (n = 717) and measured specific serum IgE (n = 478) to inhalant and food allergens. Main outcomes were current rhinitis (CR) and current rhinoconjunctivitis (CRC). The prevalence of CR and CRC was 26.1% and 12.1%, respectively. The risk of CR and CRC increased significantly with increasing IgE to grass, mite and cat; CRC was also associated with increasing IgE to dog and peanut. Similarly, increasing SPT-MWDs to inhalant allergens were significantly associated with CR and CRC. This association was also shown for grass within the group of atopic children. Perennial and seasonal rhinitis were associated with increasing IgE/SPT-MWD to mite and grass, respectively. Moderate/severe rhinitis was associated with increasing IgE/SPT-MWD to grass. In a multivariate analysis, increasing levels of IgE/SPT-MWD to grass were the strongest independent predictors of both CR (for IgE: OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.23-1.64, P < 0.001) and CRC (for IgE: 1.51, 1.30-1.76, P < 0.001). The probability of CR/CRC increases with increasing specific IgE levels or SPT-MWD. With respect to allergic rhinitis, the absolute levels of specific IgE antibody or the size of SPT wheal offer more information than just the presence/absence of sensitization.

Elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel: formal process and application in animal health.

PubMed

Van der Fels-Klerx, Ine H J; Goossens, Louis H J; Saatkamp, Helmut W; Horst, Suzan H S

2002-02-01

This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts' assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts' assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts' assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts' quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest.

Acoustic Structure Quantification Versus Point Shear Wave Speed Measurement for the Assessment of Liver Fibrosis in Viral Hepatitis B.

PubMed

Liu, Jianxue; Ren, Wei; Ai, Hong; Dun, Guoliang; Ji, Yonghao; Zhang, Yaoren; Wan, Qinyun; Lin, Shumei

2018-06-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the value of acoustic structure quantification (ASQ) technology versus that of point shear wave speed measurement (PSWSM) imaging technology for the assessment of liver fibrosis stage. A total of 104 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy control patients underwent ASQ and PSWSM examinations. Seven quantitative parameters were obtained from ASQ, and a principal component analysis was used to establish the integrative indicators. A quantitative parameter, known as the shear wave speed (SWS, m/s), was obtained from the PSWSM. The METAVIR scores for the assessment of pathologic liver fibrosis were used as a benchmark. Liver fibrosis stages exhibited a good correlation with the integrative indicators and SWS (r = 0.682, p <0.001; r = 0.651, p <0.001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for ASQ and PSWSM were 0.705 and 0.854 for mild liver fibrosis (F ≥ 1, p = 0.045), 0.813 and 0.743 for significant liver fibrosis (F ≥ 2, p = 0.115), 0.839 and 0.857 for severe liver fibrosis (F ≥ 3, p = 0.417) and 0.874 and 0.971 for liver cirrhosis (F = 4, p = 0.016), respectively. In conclusion, both ASQ and PSWSM were promising ultrasonic methods for assessing liver fibrosis in patients with CHB; however, PSWSM was more valuable for identifying mild liver fibrosis (F ≥ 1) and cirrhosis (F = 4) than ASQ, and the combination of PSWSM and ASQ improved the accuracy of diagnosing severe liver fibrosis (F ≥ 3). Copyright © 2018 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Local Multi-Channel RF Surface Coil versus Body RF Coil Transmission for Cardiac Magnetic Resonance at 3 Tesla: Which Configuration Is Winning the Game?

PubMed Central

Winter, Lukas; Dieringer, Matthias A.; Els, Antje; Oezerdem, Celal; Rieger, Jan; Kuehne, Andre; Cassara, Antonino M.; Pfeiffer, Harald; Wetterling, Friedrich; Niendorf, Thoralf

2016-01-01

Introduction The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of cardiac MR at 3 Tesla using local four-channel RF coil transmission and benchmark it against large volume body RF coil excitation. Methods Electromagnetic field simulations are conducted to detail RF power deposition, transmission field uniformity and efficiency for local and body RF coil transmission. For both excitation regimes transmission field maps are acquired in a human torso phantom. For each transmission regime flip angle distributions and blood-myocardium contrast are examined in a volunteer study of 12 subjects. The feasibility of the local transceiver RF coil array for cardiac chamber quantification at 3 Tesla is demonstrated. Results Our simulations and experiments demonstrate that cardiac MR at 3 Tesla using four-channel surface RF coil transmission is competitive versus current clinical CMR practice of large volume body RF coil transmission. The efficiency advantage of the 4TX/4RX setup facilitates shorter repetition times governed by local SAR limits versus body RF coil transmission at whole-body SAR limit. No statistically significant difference was found for cardiac chamber quantification derived with body RF coil versus four-channel surface RF coil transmission. Our simulation also show that the body RF coil exceeds local SAR limits by a factor of ~2 when driven at maximum applicable input power to reach the whole-body SAR limit. Conclusion Pursuing local surface RF coil arrays for transmission in cardiac MR is a conceptually appealing alternative to body RF coil transmission, especially for patients with implants. PMID:27598923

Evaluation of the ²³⁹Pu prompt fission neutron spectrum induced by neutrons of 500 keV and associated covariances

DOE PAGES

Neudecker, D.; Talou, P.; Kawano, T.; ...

2015-08-01

We present evaluations of the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) of ²³⁹Pu induced by 500 keV neutrons, and associated covariances. In a previous evaluation by Talou et al. 2010, surprisingly low evaluated uncertainties were obtained, partly due to simplifying assumptions in the quantification of uncertainties from experiment and model. Therefore, special emphasis is placed here on a thorough uncertainty quantification of experimental data and of the Los Alamos model predicted values entering the evaluation. In addition, the Los Alamos model was extended and an evaluation technique was employed that takes into account the qualitative differences between normalized model predicted valuesmore » and experimental shape data. These improvements lead to changes in the evaluated PFNS and overall larger evaluated uncertainties than in the previous work. However, these evaluated uncertainties are still smaller than those obtained in a statistical analysis using experimental information only, due to strong model correlations. Hence, suggestions to estimate model defect uncertainties are presented, which lead to more reasonable evaluated uncertainties. The calculated k eff of selected criticality benchmarks obtained with these new evaluations agree with each other within their uncertainties despite the different approaches to estimate model defect uncertainties. The k eff one standard deviations overlap with some of those obtained using ENDF/B-VII.1, albeit their mean values are further away from unity. Spectral indexes for the Jezebel critical assembly calculated with the newly evaluated PFNS agree with the experimental data for selected (n,γ) and (n,f) reactions, and show improvements for high-energy threshold (n,2n) reactions compared to ENDF/B-VII.1.« less

Evaluation of the 239 Pu prompt fission neutron spectrum induced by neutrons of 500 keV and associated covariances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neudecker, D.; Talou, P.; Kawano, T.

2015-08-01

We present evaluations of the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) of (PU)-P-239 induced by 500 keV neutrons, and associated covariances. In a previous evaluation by Talon et al. (2010), surprisingly low evaluated uncertainties were obtained, partly due to simplifying assumptions in the quantification of uncertainties from experiment and model. Therefore, special emphasis is placed here on a thorough uncertainty quantification of experimental data and of the Los Alamos model predicted values entering the evaluation. In addition, the Los Alamos model was extended and an evaluation technique was employed that takes into account the qualitative differences between normalized model predicted valuesmore » and experimental shape data These improvements lead to changes in the evaluated PENS and overall larger evaluated uncertainties than in the previous work. However, these evaluated uncertainties are still smaller than those obtained in a statistical analysis using experimental information only, due to strong model correlations. Hence, suggestions to estimate model defect uncertainties are presented. which lead to more reasonable evaluated uncertainties. The calculated k(eff) of selected criticality benchmarks obtained with these new evaluations agree with each other within their uncertainties despite the different approaches to estimate model defect uncertainties. The k(eff) one standard deviations overlap with some of those obtained using ENDF/B-VILl, albeit their mean values are further away from unity. Spectral indexes for the Jezebel critical assembly calculated with the newly evaluated PFNS agree with the experimental data for selected (n,) and (n,f) reactions, and show improvements for highenergy threshold (n,2n) reactions compared to ENDF/B-VII.l. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

Particle image velocimetry correlation signal-to-noise ratio metrics and measurement uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Zhenyu; Charonko, John J.; Vlachos, Pavlos P.

2014-11-01

In particle image velocimetry (PIV) the measurement signal is contained in the recorded intensity of the particle image pattern superimposed on a variety of noise sources. The signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) strength governs the resulting PIV cross correlation and ultimately the accuracy and uncertainty of the resulting PIV measurement. Hence we posit that correlation SNR metrics calculated from the correlation plane can be used to quantify the quality of the correlation and the resulting uncertainty of an individual measurement. In this paper we extend the original work by Charonko and Vlachos and present a framework for evaluating the correlation SNR using a set of different metrics, which in turn are used to develop models for uncertainty estimation. Several corrections have been applied in this work. The SNR metrics and corresponding models presented herein are expanded to be applicable to both standard and filtered correlations by applying a subtraction of the minimum correlation value to remove the effect of the background image noise. In addition, the notion of a ‘valid’ measurement is redefined with respect to the correlation peak width in order to be consistent with uncertainty quantification principles and distinct from an ‘outlier’ measurement. Finally the type and significance of the error distribution function is investigated. These advancements lead to more robust and reliable uncertainty estimation models compared with the original work by Charonko and Vlachos. The models are tested against both synthetic benchmark data as well as experimental measurements. In this work, {{U}68.5} uncertainties are estimated at the 68.5% confidence level while {{U}95} uncertainties are estimated at 95% confidence level. For all cases the resulting calculated coverage factors approximate the expected theoretical confidence intervals, thus demonstrating the applicability of these new models for estimation of uncertainty for individual PIV measurements.

Spatially-Resolved Proteomics: Rapid Quantitative Analysis of Laser Capture Microdissected Alveolar Tissue Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clair, Geremy; Piehowski, Paul D.; Nicola, Teodora

Global proteomics approaches allow characterization of whole tissue lysates to an impressive depth. However, it is now increasingly recognized that to better understand the complexity of multicellular organisms, global protein profiling of specific spatially defined regions/substructures of tissues (i.e. spatially-resolved proteomics) is essential. Laser capture microdissection (LCM) enables microscopic isolation of defined regions of tissues preserving crucial spatial information. However, current proteomics workflows entail several manual sample preparation steps and are challenged by the microscopic mass-limited samples generated by LCM, and that impact measurement robustness, quantification, and throughput. Here, we coupled LCM with a fully automated sample preparation workflow thatmore » with a single manual step allows: protein extraction, tryptic digestion, peptide cleanup and LC-MS/MS analysis of proteomes from microdissected tissues. Benchmarking against the current state of the art in ultrasensitive global proteomic analysis, our approach demonstrated significant improvements in quantification and throughput. Using our LCM-SNaPP proteomics approach, we characterized to a depth of more than 3,400 proteins, the ontogeny of protein changes during normal lung development in laser capture microdissected alveolar tissue containing ~4,000 cells per sample. Importantly, the data revealed quantitative changes for 350 low abundance transcription factors and signaling molecules, confirming earlier transcript-level observations and defining seven modules of coordinated transcription factor/signaling molecule expression patterns, suggesting that a complex network of temporal regulatory control directs normal lung development with epigenetic regulation fine-tuning pre-natal developmental processes. Our LCM-proteomics approach facilitates efficient, spatially-resolved, ultrasensitive global proteomics analyses in high-throughput that will be enabling for several clinical and biological applications.« less

Toxicological benchmarks for screening potential contaminants of concern for effects on aquatic biota: 1994 Revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter, G.W. II; Mabrey, J.B.

1994-07-01

This report presents potential screening benchmarks for protection of aquatic life from contaminants in water. Because there is no guidance for screening benchmarks, a set of alternative benchmarks is presented herein. The alternative benchmarks are based on different conceptual approaches to estimating concentrations causing significant effects. For the upper screening benchmark, there are the acute National Ambient Water Quality Criteria (NAWQC) and the Secondary Acute Values (SAV). The SAV concentrations are values estimated with 80% confidence not to exceed the unknown acute NAWQC for those chemicals with no NAWQC. The alternative chronic benchmarks are the chronic NAWQC, the Secondary Chronicmore » Value (SCV), the lowest chronic values for fish and daphnids from chronic toxicity tests, the estimated EC20 for a sensitive species, and the concentration estimated to cause a 20% reduction in the recruit abundance of largemouth bass. It is recommended that ambient chemical concentrations be compared to all of these benchmarks. If NAWQC are exceeded, the chemicals must be contaminants of concern because the NAWQC are applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). If NAWQC are not exceeded, but other benchmarks are, contaminants should be selected on the basis of the number of benchmarks exceeded and the conservatism of the particular benchmark values, as discussed in the text. To the extent that toxicity data are available, this report presents the alternative benchmarks for chemicals that have been detected on the Oak Ridge Reservation. It also presents the data used to calculate benchmarks and the sources of the data. It compares the benchmarks and discusses their relative conservatism and utility.« less

Last-position elimination-based learning automata.

PubMed

Zhang, Junqi; Wang, Cheng; Zhou, MengChu

2014-12-01

An update scheme of the state probability vector of actions is critical for learning automata (LA). The most popular is the pursuit scheme that pursues the estimated optimal action and penalizes others. This paper proposes a reverse philosophy that leads to last-position elimination-based learning automata (LELA). The action graded last in terms of the estimated performance is penalized by decreasing its state probability and is eliminated when its state probability becomes zero. All active actions, that is, actions with nonzero state probability, equally share the penalized state probability from the last-position action at each iteration. The proposed LELA is characterized by the relaxed convergence condition for the optimal action, the accelerated step size of the state probability update scheme for the estimated optimal action, and the enriched sampling for the estimated nonoptimal actions. The proof of the ϵ-optimal property for the proposed algorithm is presented. Last-position elimination is a widespread philosophy in the real world and has proved to be also helpful for the update scheme of the learning automaton via the simulations of well-known benchmark environments. In the simulations, two versions of the LELA, using different selection strategies of the last action, are compared with the classical pursuit algorithms Discretized Pursuit Reward-Inaction (DP(RI)) and Discretized Generalized Pursuit Algorithm (DGPA). Simulation results show that the proposed schemes achieve significantly faster convergence and higher accuracy than the classical ones. Specifically, the proposed schemes reduce the interval to find the best parameter for a specific environment in the classical pursuit algorithms. Thus, they can have their parameter tuning easier to perform and can save much more time when applied to a practical case. Furthermore, the convergence curves and the corresponding variance coefficient curves of the contenders are illustrated to characterize their essential differences and verify the analysis results of the proposed algorithms.

Raising Quality and Achievement. A College Guide to Benchmarking.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Jane

This booklet introduces the principles and practices of benchmarking as a way of raising quality and achievement at further education colleges in Britain. Section 1 defines the concept of benchmarking. Section 2 explains what benchmarking is not and the steps that should be taken before benchmarking is initiated. The following aspects and…

Benchmarking in Education: Tech Prep, a Case in Point. IEE Brief Number 8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inger, Morton

Benchmarking is a process by which organizations compare their practices, processes, and outcomes to standards of excellence in a systematic way. The benchmarking process entails the following essential steps: determining what to benchmark and establishing internal baseline data; identifying the benchmark; determining how that standard has been…

Benchmarks: The Development of a New Approach to Student Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larter, Sylvia

The Toronto Board of Education Benchmarks are libraries of reference materials that demonstrate student achievement at various levels. Each library contains video benchmarks, print benchmarks, a staff handbook, and summary and introductory documents. This book is about the development and the history of the benchmark program. It has taken over 3…

HS06 Benchmark for an ARM Server

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kluth, Stefan

2014-06-01

We benchmarked an ARM cortex-A9 based server system with a four-core CPU running at 1.1 GHz. The system used Ubuntu 12.04 as operating system and the HEPSPEC 2006 (HS06) benchmarking suite was compiled natively with gcc-4.4 on the system. The benchmark was run for various settings of the relevant gcc compiler options. We did not find significant influence from the compiler options on the benchmark result. The final HS06 benchmark result is 10.4.

Uncertainty Quantification in Remaining Useful Life of Aerospace Components using State Space Models and Inverse FORM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse- FORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected by several sources of uncertainty, and therefore it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. While system parameter uncertainty and physical variability can be easily included in inverse-FORM, this paper extends the methodology to include: (1) future loading uncertainty, (2) process noise; and (3) uncertainty in the state estimate. The inverse-FORM method has been used in this paper to (1) quickly obtain probability bounds on the remaining useful life prediction; and (2) calculate the entire probability distribution of remaining useful life prediction, and the results are verified against Monte Carlo sampling. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a numerical example.

Probabilistic risk analysis of building contamination.

PubMed

Bolster, D T; Tartakovsky, D M

2008-10-01

We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of building contamination. PRA provides a powerful tool for the rigorous quantification of risk in contamination of building spaces. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a system (e.g. ventilation system components, potential sources of contaminants, remediation methods) and proceeds by using available information and statistical inference to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault-tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g. building contamination). A sensitivity study of PRAs can identify features and potential problems that need to be addressed with the most urgency. Often PRAs are amenable to approximations, which can significantly simplify the approach. All these features of PRA are presented in this paper via a simple illustrative example, which can be built upon in further studies. The tool presented here can be used to design and maintain adequate ventilation systems to minimize exposure of occupants to contaminants.

PMLB: a large benchmark suite for machine learning evaluation and comparison.

PubMed

Olson, Randal S; La Cava, William; Orzechowski, Patryk; Urbanowicz, Ryan J; Moore, Jason H

2017-01-01

The selection, development, or comparison of machine learning methods in data mining can be a difficult task based on the target problem and goals of a particular study. Numerous publicly available real-world and simulated benchmark datasets have emerged from different sources, but their organization and adoption as standards have been inconsistent. As such, selecting and curating specific benchmarks remains an unnecessary burden on machine learning practitioners and data scientists. The present study introduces an accessible, curated, and developing public benchmark resource to facilitate identification of the strengths and weaknesses of different machine learning methodologies. We compare meta-features among the current set of benchmark datasets in this resource to characterize the diversity of available data. Finally, we apply a number of established machine learning methods to the entire benchmark suite and analyze how datasets and algorithms cluster in terms of performance. From this study, we find that existing benchmarks lack the diversity to properly benchmark machine learning algorithms, and there are several gaps in benchmarking problems that still need to be considered. This work represents another important step towards understanding the limitations of popular benchmarking suites and developing a resource that connects existing benchmarking standards to more diverse and efficient standards in the future.

The General Concept of Benchmarking and Its Application in Higher Education in Europe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nazarko, Joanicjusz; Kuzmicz, Katarzyna Anna; Szubzda-Prutis, Elzbieta; Urban, Joanna

2009-01-01

The purposes of this paper are twofold: a presentation of the theoretical basis of benchmarking and a discussion on practical benchmarking applications. Benchmarking is also analyzed as a productivity accelerator. The authors study benchmarking usage in the private and public sectors with due consideration of the specificities of the two areas.…

A Scaled Framework for CRISPR Editing of Human Pluripotent Stem Cells to Study Psychiatric Disease.

PubMed

Hazelbaker, Dane Z; Beccard, Amanda; Bara, Anne M; Dabkowski, Nicole; Messana, Angelica; Mazzucato, Patrizia; Lam, Daisy; Manning, Danielle; Eggan, Kevin; Barrett, Lindy E

2017-10-10

Scaling of CRISPR-Cas9 technology in human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) represents an important step for modeling complex disease and developing drug screens in human cells. However, variables affecting the scaling efficiency of gene editing in hPSCs remain poorly understood. Here, we report a standardized CRISPR-Cas9 approach, with robust benchmarking at each step, to successfully target and genotype a set of psychiatric disease-implicated genes in hPSCs and provide a resource of edited hPSC lines for six of these genes. We found that transcriptional state and nucleosome positioning around targeted loci was not correlated with editing efficiency. However, editing frequencies varied between different hPSC lines and correlated with genomic stability, underscoring the need for careful cell line selection and unbiased assessments of genomic integrity. Together, our step-by-step quantification and in-depth analyses provide an experimental roadmap for scaling Cas9-mediated editing in hPSCs to study psychiatric disease, with broader applicability for other polygenic diseases. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative Analysis of Single-Cell RNA Sequencing Methods.

PubMed

Ziegenhain, Christoph; Vieth, Beate; Parekh, Swati; Reinius, Björn; Guillaumet-Adkins, Amy; Smets, Martha; Leonhardt, Heinrich; Heyn, Holger; Hellmann, Ines; Enard, Wolfgang

2017-02-16

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) offers new possibilities to address biological and medical questions. However, systematic comparisons of the performance of diverse scRNA-seq protocols are lacking. We generated data from 583 mouse embryonic stem cells to evaluate six prominent scRNA-seq methods: CEL-seq2, Drop-seq, MARS-seq, SCRB-seq, Smart-seq, and Smart-seq2. While Smart-seq2 detected the most genes per cell and across cells, CEL-seq2, Drop-seq, MARS-seq, and SCRB-seq quantified mRNA levels with less amplification noise due to the use of unique molecular identifiers (UMIs). Power simulations at different sequencing depths showed that Drop-seq is more cost-efficient for transcriptome quantification of large numbers of cells, while MARS-seq, SCRB-seq, and Smart-seq2 are more efficient when analyzing fewer cells. Our quantitative comparison offers the basis for an informed choice among six prominent scRNA-seq methods, and it provides a framework for benchmarking further improvements of scRNA-seq protocols. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of an UPLC-MS/MS method for the quantification of tamoxifen and its main metabolites in human scalp hair.

PubMed

Drooger, Jan C; Jager, Agnes; Lam, Mei-Ho; den Boer, Mathilda D; Sleijfer, Stefan; Mathijssen, Ron H J; de Bruijn, Peter

2015-10-10

The aim of this study was to validate an earlier developed high-performance highly sensitive ultra performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method for quantification of tamoxifen and its three main metabolites (N-desmethyl-tamoxifen, 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen and 4-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen) in scalp hair. This non-invasive method might, by segmental analysis of hair, be useful in the determination of the concentration of drugs and its metabolites over time, which can be used to study a wide variety of clinical relevant questions. Hair samples (150-300 hair strands, cut as close to the scalp as possible from the posterior vertex region of the head) were collected from female patients taking tamoxifen 20mg daily (n=19). The analytes were extracted using a liquid-liquid extraction procedure with carbonate buffer at pH 8.8 and a mixture of n-hexane/isopropranol method, followed by UPLC-MS/MS chromatography, based on an earlier validated method. The calibration curves were linear in the range of 1.00-200 pmol for tamoxifen and N-desmethyl-tamoxifen, with lower limit of quantitation of 1.00 pmol and 0.100-20.0 pmol with lower limit of quantitation of 0.100 pmol for endoxifen and 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen. Assay performance was fair with a within-run and between-run variability less than 9.24 at the three quality control samples and less than 15.7 for the lower limit of quantitation. Importantly, a steep linear decline was observed from distal to proximal hair segments. Probably, this is due to UV exposure as we showed degradation of tamoxifen and its metabolites after exposure to UV-light. Furthermore, higher concentrations of tamoxifen were found in black hair samples compared to blond and brown hair samples. We conclude that measurement of the concentration of tamoxifen and its main metabolites in hair is possible, with the selective, sensitive, accurate and precise UPLC-MS/MS method. However, for tamoxifen, it seems not possible to determine exposure over time with segmental analysis of hair, probably largely due to the effect of UV irradiation. Further research should therefore focus on quantification of other anticancer drugs, in segmented scalp hair, that are less sensitive to UV irradiation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking reference services: an introduction.

PubMed

Marshall, J G; Buchanan, H S

1995-01-01

Benchmarking is based on the common sense idea that someone else, either inside or outside of libraries, has found a better way of doing certain things and that your own library's performance can be improved by finding out how others do things and adopting the best practices you find. Benchmarking is one of the tools used for achieving continuous improvement in Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Although benchmarking can be done on an informal basis, TQM puts considerable emphasis on formal data collection and performance measurement. Used to its full potential, benchmarking can provide a common measuring stick to evaluate process performance. This article introduces the general concept of benchmarking, linking it whenever possible to reference services in health sciences libraries. Data collection instruments that have potential application in benchmarking studies are discussed and the need to develop common measurement tools to facilitate benchmarking is emphasized.

Estimation of the limit of detection using information theory measures.

PubMed

Fonollosa, Jordi; Vergara, Alexander; Huerta, Ramón; Marco, Santiago

2014-01-31

Definitions of the limit of detection (LOD) based on the probability of false positive and/or false negative errors have been proposed over the past years. Although such definitions are straightforward and valid for any kind of analytical system, proposed methodologies to estimate the LOD are usually simplified to signals with Gaussian noise. Additionally, there is a general misconception that two systems with the same LOD provide the same amount of information on the source regardless of the prior probability of presenting a blank/analyte sample. Based upon an analogy between an analytical system and a binary communication channel, in this paper we show that the amount of information that can be extracted from an analytical system depends on the probability of presenting the two different possible states. We propose a new definition of LOD utilizing information theory tools that deals with noise of any kind and allows the introduction of prior knowledge easily. Unlike most traditional LOD estimation approaches, the proposed definition is based on the amount of information that the chemical instrumentation system provides on the chemical information source. Our findings indicate that the benchmark of analytical systems based on the ability to provide information about the presence/absence of the analyte (our proposed approach) is a more general and proper framework, while converging to the usual values when dealing with Gaussian noise. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constrained Multiobjective Biogeography Optimization Algorithm

PubMed Central

Mo, Hongwei; Xu, Zhidan; Xu, Lifang; Wu, Zhou; Ma, Haiping

2014-01-01

Multiobjective optimization involves minimizing or maximizing multiple objective functions subject to a set of constraints. In this study, a novel constrained multiobjective biogeography optimization algorithm (CMBOA) is proposed. It is the first biogeography optimization algorithm for constrained multiobjective optimization. In CMBOA, a disturbance migration operator is designed to generate diverse feasible individuals in order to promote the diversity of individuals on Pareto front. Infeasible individuals nearby feasible region are evolved to feasibility by recombining with their nearest nondominated feasible individuals. The convergence of CMBOA is proved by using probability theory. The performance of CMBOA is evaluated on a set of 6 benchmark problems and experimental results show that the CMBOA performs better than or similar to the classical NSGA-II and IS-MOEA. PMID:25006591

Watershed regressions for pesticides (WARP) for predicting atrazine concentration in Corn Belt streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.

2011-01-01

The 95-percent prediction intervals are well within a factor of 10 above and below the predicted concentration statistic. WARP-CB model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90 percent of the model-development sites. The WARP-CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. The WARP-CB models provide improved predictions of the probability of exceeding a specified criterion or benchmark for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with high atrazine use intensities; however, National WARP models should be used for Corn Belt streams where atrazine use intensities are less than 17 kg/km2 of watershed area.

Taking the Battle Upstream: Towards a Benchmarking Role for NATO

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Benchmark.........................................................................................14 Figure 8. World Bank Benchmarking Work on Quality...Search of a Benchmarking Theory for the Public Sector.” 16     Figure 8. World Bank Benchmarking Work on Quality of Governance One of the most...the Ministries of Defense in the countries in which it works ). Another interesting innovation is that for comparison purposes, McKinsey categorized

Benchmarks--Standards Comparisons. Math Competencies: EFF Benchmarks Comparison [and] Reading Competencies: EFF Benchmarks Comparison [and] Writing Competencies: EFF Benchmarks Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kent State Univ., OH. Ohio Literacy Resource Center.

This document is intended to show the relationship between Ohio's Standards and Competencies, Equipped for the Future's (EFF's) Standards and Components of Performance, and Ohio's Revised Benchmarks. The document is divided into three parts, with Part 1 covering mathematics instruction, Part 2 covering reading instruction, and Part 3 covering…

Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

2017-12-01

Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean- pbf optimization. The effectiveness of using buffered failure probability compared to the failure probability is tested by comparing the solutions obtained by using mean-pbf and mean-pf optimizations.

Lung sound analysis for wheeze episode detection.

PubMed

Jain, Abhishek; Vepa, Jithendra

2008-01-01

Listening and interpreting lung sounds by a stethoscope had been an important component of screening and diagnosing lung diseases. However this practice has always been vulnerable to poor audibility, inter-observer variations (between different physicians) and poor reproducibility. Thus computerized analysis of lung sounds for objective diagnosis of lung diseases is seen as a probable aid. In this paper we aim at automatic analysis of lung sounds for wheeze episode detection and quantification. The proposed algorithm integrates and analyses the set of parameters based on ATS (American Thoracic Society) definition of wheezes. It is very robust, computationally simple and yielded sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 86%.

Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

A benchmarking method to measure dietary absorption efficiency of chemicals by fish.

PubMed

Xiao, Ruiyang; Adolfsson-Erici, Margaretha; Åkerman, Gun; McLachlan, Michael S; MacLeod, Matthew

2013-12-01

Understanding the dietary absorption efficiency of chemicals in the gastrointestinal tract of fish is important from both a scientific and a regulatory point of view. However, reported fish absorption efficiencies for well-studied chemicals are highly variable. In the present study, the authors developed and exploited an internal chemical benchmarking method that has the potential to reduce uncertainty and variability and, thus, to improve the precision of measurements of fish absorption efficiency. The authors applied the benchmarking method to measure the gross absorption efficiency for 15 chemicals with a wide range of physicochemical properties and structures. They selected 2,2',5,6'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB53) and decabromodiphenyl ethane as absorbable and nonabsorbable benchmarks, respectively. Quantities of chemicals determined in fish were benchmarked to the fraction of PCB53 recovered in fish, and quantities of chemicals determined in feces were benchmarked to the fraction of decabromodiphenyl ethane recovered in feces. The performance of the benchmarking procedure was evaluated based on the recovery of the test chemicals and precision of absorption efficiency from repeated tests. Benchmarking did not improve the precision of the measurements; after benchmarking, however, the median recovery for 15 chemicals was 106%, and variability of recoveries was reduced compared with before benchmarking, suggesting that benchmarking could account for incomplete extraction of chemical in fish and incomplete collection of feces from different tests. © 2013 SETAC.

Benchmark Evaluation of Start-Up and Zero-Power Measurements at the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor

DOE PAGES

Bess, John D.; Fujimoto, Nozomu

2014-10-09

Benchmark models were developed to evaluate six cold-critical and two warm-critical, zero-power measurements of the HTTR. Additional measurements of a fully-loaded subcritical configuration, core excess reactivity, shutdown margins, six isothermal temperature coefficients, and axial reaction-rate distributions were also evaluated as acceptable benchmark experiments. Insufficient information is publicly available to develop finely-detailed models of the HTTR as much of the design information is still proprietary. However, the uncertainties in the benchmark models are judged to be of sufficient magnitude to encompass any biases and bias uncertainties incurred through the simplification process used to develop the benchmark models. Dominant uncertainties in themore » experimental keff for all core configurations come from uncertainties in the impurity content of the various graphite blocks that comprise the HTTR. Monte Carlo calculations of keff are between approximately 0.9 % and 2.7 % greater than the benchmark values. Reevaluation of the HTTR models as additional information becomes available could improve the quality of this benchmark and possibly reduce the computational biases. High-quality characterization of graphite impurities would significantly improve the quality of the HTTR benchmark assessment. Simulation of the other reactor physics measurements are in good agreement with the benchmark experiment values. The complete benchmark evaluation details are available in the 2014 edition of the International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments.« less

Quantification and study of the L-DOPA decarboxylase expression in gastric adenocarcinoma cells treated with chemotherapeutic substances.

PubMed

Korbakis, Dimitrios; Fragoulis, Emmanuel G; Scorilas, Andreas

2013-03-01

3,4-Dihydroxy-L-phenylalanine decarboxylase (DDC) is an enzyme implicated in the biosynthetic pathways of the neurotransmitters dopamine and probably serotonin. DDC gene expression has been studied in numerous malignancies and the corresponding data have shown remarkable alterations in the mRNA and/or protein levels encoded by the gene. The aim of this study was to examine any modulations in the DDC mRNA levels in gastric cancer cells after their treatment with the chemotherapeutic agents 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, irinotecan, etoposide, cisplatin, and taxol. The sensitivity of the AGS gastric adenocarcinoma cells to the antineoplastic drugs was evaluated using the MTT assay. Total RNA was extracted and reverse transcribed into cDNA. A highly sensitive quantitative real-time PCR methodology was developed for the quantification of DDC mRNA. GAPDH was used as a housekeeping gene. Relative quantification analysis was carried out using the comparative C T method ((Equation is included in full-text article.)). The treatment of AGS cells with several concentrations of various broadly used anticancer drugs resulted in significant modulations of the DDC mRNA levels compared with those in the untreated cells in a time-specific and drug-specific manner. Generally, DDC expression levels appeared to decrease after three time periods of exposure to the selected chemotherapeutic agents, suggesting a characteristic DDC mRNA expression profile that is possibly related to the mechanism of each drug. Our experimental data show that the DDC gene might serve as a new potential molecular biomarker predicting treatment response in gastric cancer cells.

Influence of Temperature and Predation on Survival of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium and Expression of invA in Soil and Manure-Amended Soil▿

PubMed Central

García, R.; Bælum, J.; Fredslund, L.; Santorum, P.; Jacobsen, C. S.

2010-01-01

The effects of three temperatures (5, 15, and 25°C) on the survival of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in topsoil were investigated in small microcosms by three different techniques: plate counting, invA gene quantification, and invA mRNA quantification. Differences in survival were related to the effect of protozoan predation. Tetracycline-resistant Salmonella serovar Typhimurium was inoculated into soil and manure-amended soil at 1.5 × 108 cells g soil−1. Population densities were determined by plate counting and by molecular methods and monitored for 42 days. Simultaneous extraction of RNA and DNA, followed by quantitative PCR, was used to investigate invA gene levels and expression. Analysis by these three techniques showed that Salmonella serovar Typhimurium survived better at 5°C. Comparing DNA and CFU levels, significantly higher values were determined by DNA-based techniques. invA mRNA levels showed a fast decrease in activity, with no detectable mRNA after an incubation period of less than 4 days in any of the soil scenarios. A negative correlation was found between Salmonella serovar Typhimurium CFU levels and protozoan most probable numbers, and we propose the role of the predator-prey interaction as a factor to explain the die-off of the introduced strain by both culture- and DNA quantification-based methods. The results indicate that temperature, manure, and protozoan predation are important factors influencing the survival of Salmonella serovar Typhimurium in soil. PMID:20562283

A General Uncertainty Quantification Methodology for Cloud Microphysical Property Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Xie, S.; Chen, X.; Zhao, C.

2014-12-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program provides long-term (~20 years) ground-based cloud remote sensing observations. However, there are large uncertainties in the retrieval products of cloud microphysical properties based on the active and/or passive remote-sensing measurements. To address this uncertainty issue, a DOE Atmospheric System Research scientific focus study, Quantification of Uncertainties in Cloud Retrievals (QUICR), has been formed. In addition to an overview of recent progress of QUICR, we will demonstrate the capacity of an observation-based general uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology via the ARM Climate Research Facility baseline cloud microphysical properties (MICROBASE) product. This UQ method utilizes the Karhunen-Loéve expansion (KLE) and Central Limit Theorems (CLT) to quantify the retrieval uncertainties from observations and algorithm parameters. The input perturbations are imposed on major modes to take into account the cross correlations between input data, which greatly reduces the dimension of random variables (up to a factor of 50) and quantifies vertically resolved full probability distribution functions of retrieved quantities. Moreover, this KLE/CLT approach has the capability of attributing the uncertainties in the retrieval output to individual uncertainty source and thus sheds light on improving the retrieval algorithm and observations. We will present the results of a case study for the ice water content at the Southern Great Plains during an intensive observing period on March 9, 2000. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

How to achieve and prove performance improvement - 15 years of experience in German wastewater benchmarking.

PubMed

Bertzbach, F; Franz, T; Möller, K

2012-01-01

This paper shows the results of performance improvement, which have been achieved in benchmarking projects in the wastewater industry in Germany over the last 15 years. A huge number of changes in operational practice and also in achieved annual savings can be shown, induced in particular by benchmarking at process level. Investigation of this question produces some general findings for the inclusion of performance improvement in a benchmarking project and for the communication of its results. Thus, we elaborate on the concept of benchmarking at both utility and process level, which is still a necessary distinction for the integration of performance improvement into our benchmarking approach. To achieve performance improvement via benchmarking it should be made quite clear that this outcome depends, on one hand, on a well conducted benchmarking programme and, on the other, on the individual situation within each participating utility.

Benchmarking clinical photography services in the NHS.

PubMed

Arbon, Giles

2015-01-01

Benchmarking is used in services across the National Health Service (NHS) using various benchmarking programs. Clinical photography services do not have a program in place and services have to rely on ad hoc surveys of other services. A trial benchmarking exercise was undertaken with 13 services in NHS Trusts. This highlights valuable data and comparisons that can be used to benchmark and improve services throughout the profession.

Assessment and quantification of patient set-up errors in nasopharyngeal cancer patients and their biological and dosimetric impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD), tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP)

PubMed Central

Marcie, S; Fellah, M; Chami, S; Mekki, F

2015-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study is to assess and quantify patients' set-up errors using an electronic portal imaging device and to evaluate their dosimetric and biological impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) on predictive models, such as the tumour control probability (TCP) and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Methods: 20 patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer were enrolled in the radiotherapy–oncology department of HCA. Systematic and random errors were quantified. The dosimetric and biological impact of these set-up errors on the target volume and the organ at risk (OARs) coverage were assessed using calculation of dose–volume histogram, gEUD, TCP and NTCP. For this purpose, an in-house software was developed and used. Results: The standard deviations (1SDs) of the systematic set-up and random set-up errors were calculated for the lateral and subclavicular fields and gave the following results: ∑ = 0.63 ± (0.42) mm and σ = 3.75 ± (0.79) mm, respectively. Thus a planning organ at risk volume (PRV) margin of 3 mm was defined around the OARs, and a 5-mm margin used around the clinical target volume. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP calculations obtained with and without set-up errors have shown increased values for tumour, where ΔgEUD (tumour) = 1.94% Gy (p = 0.00721) and ΔTCP = 2.03%. The toxicity of OARs was quantified using gEUD and NTCP. The values of ΔgEUD (OARs) vary from 0.78% to 5.95% in the case of the brainstem and the optic chiasm, respectively. The corresponding ΔNTCP varies from 0.15% to 0.53%, respectively. Conclusion: The quantification of set-up errors has a dosimetric and biological impact on the tumour and on the OARs. The developed in-house software using the concept of gEUD, TCP and NTCP biological models has been successfully used in this study. It can be used also to optimize the treatment plan established for our patients. Advances in knowledge: The gEUD, TCP and NTCP may be more suitable tools to assess the treatment plans before treating the patients. PMID:25882689

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raje, Deepashree; Mujumdar, P. P.

2010-09-01

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change.

A Seafloor Benchmark for 3-dimensional Geodesy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwell, C. D.; Webb, S. C.; Nooner, S. L.

2014-12-01

We have developed an inexpensive, permanent seafloor benchmark to increase the longevity of seafloor geodetic measurements. The benchmark provides a physical tie to the sea floor lasting for decades (perhaps longer) on which geodetic sensors can be repeatedly placed and removed with millimeter resolution. Global coordinates estimated with seafloor geodetic techniques will remain attached to the benchmark allowing for the interchange of sensors as they fail or become obsolete, or for the sensors to be removed and used elsewhere, all the while maintaining a coherent series of positions referenced to the benchmark. The benchmark has been designed to free fall from the sea surface with transponders attached. The transponder can be recalled via an acoustic command sent from the surface to release from the benchmark and freely float to the sea surface for recovery. The duration of the sensor attachment to the benchmark will last from a few days to a few years depending on the specific needs of the experiment. The recovered sensors are then available to be reused at other locations, or again at the same site in the future. Three pins on the sensor frame mate precisely and unambiguously with three grooves on the benchmark. To reoccupy a benchmark a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) uses its manipulator arm to place the sensor pins into the benchmark grooves. In June 2014 we deployed four benchmarks offshore central Oregon. We used the ROV Jason to successfully demonstrate the removal and replacement of packages onto the benchmark. We will show the benchmark design and its operational capabilities. Presently models of megathrust slip within the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) are mostly constrained by the sub-aerial GPS vectors from the Plate Boundary Observatory, a part of Earthscope. More long-lived seafloor geodetic measures are needed to better understand the earthquake and tsunami risk associated with a large rupture of the thrust fault within the Cascadia subduction zone. Using a ROV to place and remove sensors on the benchmarks will significantly reduce the number of sensors required by the community to monitor offshore strain in subduction zones.

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

The Model Averaging for Dichotomous Response Benchmark Dose (MADr-BMD) Tool

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Providing quantal response models, which are also used in the U.S. EPA benchmark dose software suite, and generates a model-averaged dose response model to generate benchmark dose and benchmark dose lower bound estimates.

Benchmarking--Measuring and Comparing for Continuous Improvement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henczel, Sue

2002-01-01

Discussion of benchmarking focuses on the use of internal and external benchmarking by special librarians. Highlights include defining types of benchmarking; historical development; benefits, including efficiency, improved performance, increased competitiveness, and better decision making; problems, including inappropriate adaptation; developing a…

Deterministic Modeling of the High Temperature Test Reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortensi, J.; Cogliati, J. J.; Pope, M. A.

2010-06-01

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is tasked with the development of reactor physics analysis capability of the Next Generation Nuclear Power (NGNP) project. In order to examine INL’s current prismatic reactor deterministic analysis tools, the project is conducting a benchmark exercise based on modeling the High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR). This exercise entails the development of a model for the initial criticality, a 19 column thin annular core, and the fully loaded core critical condition with 30 columns. Special emphasis is devoted to the annular core modeling, which shares more characteristics with the NGNP base design. The DRAGON code is usedmore » in this study because it offers significant ease and versatility in modeling prismatic designs. Despite some geometric limitations, the code performs quite well compared to other lattice physics codes. DRAGON can generate transport solutions via collision probability (CP), method of characteristics (MOC), and discrete ordinates (Sn). A fine group cross section library based on the SHEM 281 energy structure is used in the DRAGON calculations. HEXPEDITE is the hexagonal z full core solver used in this study and is based on the Green’s Function solution of the transverse integrated equations. In addition, two Monte Carlo (MC) based codes, MCNP5 and PSG2/SERPENT, provide benchmarking capability for the DRAGON and the nodal diffusion solver codes. The results from this study show a consistent bias of 2–3% for the core multiplication factor. This systematic error has also been observed in other HTTR benchmark efforts and is well documented in the literature. The ENDF/B VII graphite and U235 cross sections appear to be the main source of the error. The isothermal temperature coefficients calculated with the fully loaded core configuration agree well with other benchmark participants but are 40% higher than the experimental values. This discrepancy with the measurement stems from the fact that during the experiments the control rods were adjusted to maintain criticality, whereas in the model, the rod positions were fixed. In addition, this work includes a brief study of a cross section generation approach that seeks to decouple the domain in order to account for neighbor effects. This spectral interpenetration is a dominant effect in annular HTR physics. This analysis methodology should be further explored in order to reduce the error that is systematically propagated in the traditional generation of cross sections.« less

Developing Benchmarks for Solar Radio Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.; White, S. M.; Gopalswamy, N.; Black, C.; Domm, P.; Love, J. J.; Pierson, J.

2016-12-01

Solar radio bursts can interfere with radar, communication, and tracking signals. In severe cases, radio bursts can inhibit the successful use of radio communications and disrupt a wide range of systems that are reliant on Position, Navigation, and Timing services on timescales ranging from minutes to hours across wide areas on the dayside of Earth. The White House's Space Weather Action Plan has asked for solar radio burst intensity benchmarks for an event occurrence frequency of 1 in 100 years and also a theoretical maximum intensity benchmark. The solar radio benchmark team was also asked to define the wavelength/frequency bands of interest. The benchmark team developed preliminary (phase 1) benchmarks for the VHF (30-300 MHz), UHF (300-3000 MHz), GPS (1176-1602 MHz), F10.7 (2800 MHz), and Microwave (4000-20000) bands. The preliminary benchmarks were derived based on previously published work. Limitations in the published work will be addressed in phase 2 of the benchmark process. In addition, deriving theoretical maxima requires additional work, where it is even possible to, in order to meet the Action Plan objectives. In this presentation, we will present the phase 1 benchmarks and the basis used to derive them. We will also present the work that needs to be done in order to complete the final, or phase 2 benchmarks.

Benchmarking in national health service procurement in Scotland.

PubMed

Walker, Scott; Masson, Ron; Telford, Ronnie; White, David

2007-11-01

The paper reports the results of a study on benchmarking activities undertaken by the procurement organization within the National Health Service (NHS) in Scotland, namely National Procurement (previously Scottish Healthcare Supplies Contracts Branch). NHS performance is of course politically important, and benchmarking is increasingly seen as a means to improve performance, so the study was carried out to determine if the current benchmarking approaches could be enhanced. A review of the benchmarking activities used by the private sector, local government and NHS organizations was carried out to establish a framework of the motivations, benefits, problems and costs associated with benchmarking. This framework was used to carry out the research through case studies and a questionnaire survey of NHS procurement organizations both in Scotland and other parts of the UK. Nine of the 16 Scottish Health Boards surveyed reported carrying out benchmarking during the last three years. The findings of the research were that there were similarities in approaches between local government and NHS Scotland Health, but differences between NHS Scotland and other UK NHS procurement organizations. Benefits were seen as significant and it was recommended that National Procurement should pursue the formation of a benchmarking group with members drawn from NHS Scotland and external benchmarking bodies to establish measures to be used in benchmarking across the whole of NHS Scotland.

Targeting the affordability of cigarettes: a new benchmark for taxation policy in low-income and-middle-income countries.

PubMed

Blecher, Evan

2010-08-01

To investigate the appropriateness of tax incidence (the percentage of the retail price occupied by taxes) benchmarking in low-income and-middle-income countries (LMICs) with rapidly growing economies and to explore the viability of an alternative tax policy rule based on the affordability of cigarettes. The paper outlines criticisms of tax incidence benchmarking, particularly in the context of LMICs. It then considers an affordability-based benchmark using relative income price (RIP) as a measure of affordability. The RIP measures the percentage of annual per capita GDP required to purchase 100 packs of cigarettes. Using South Africa as a case study of an LMIC, future consumption is simulated using both tax incidence benchmarks and affordability benchmarks. I show that a tax incidence benchmark is not an optimal policy tool in South Africa and that an affordability benchmark could be a more effective means of reducing tobacco consumption in the future. Although a tax incidence benchmark was successful in increasing prices and reducing tobacco consumption in South Africa in the past, this approach has drawbacks, particularly in the context of a rapidly growing LMIC economy. An affordability benchmark represents an appropriate alternative that would be more effective in reducing future cigarette consumption.

Quantification of the vertical translocation rate of soil solid-phase material by the magnetic tracer method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhidkin, A. P.; Gennadiev, A. N.

2016-07-01

Approaches to the quantification of the vertical translocation rate of soil solid-phase material by the magnetic tracer method have been developed; the tracer penetration depth and rate have been determined, as well as the radial distribution of the tracer in chernozems (Chernozems) and dark gray forest soils (Luvisols) of Belgorod oblast under natural steppe and forest vegetation and in arable lands under agricultural use of different durations. It has been found that the penetration depth of spherical magnetic particles (SMPs) during their 150-year-occurrence in soils of a forest plot is 68 cm under forest, 58 cm on a 100-year old plowland, and only 49 cm on a 150-year-old plowland. In the chernozems of the steppe plot, the penetration depth of SMPs exceeds the studied depth of 70 cm both under natural vegetation and on the plowlands. The penetration rates of SMPs deep into the soil vary significantly among the key plots: 0.92-1.32 mm/year on the forest plot and 1.47-1.63 mm/year on the steppe plot, probably because of the more active recent turbation activity of soil animals.

Methyl angolensate changes in Khaya ivorensis after fungal infection.

PubMed

Reche, Karine V G; de Souza, Gezimar D; Trapp, Marília A; Rodrigues-Filho, Edson; Silva, Sebastião C; Fernandes, João B; Vieira, Paulo C; Muller, Manfred W; da Silva, M Fátima das G F

2009-12-01

Khaya ivorensis with and without symptoms of stem and branch cankers, caused by Botryosphaeria rhodina were examined in order to determine whether the secondary metabolites in this plant were associated with a chemical defense response. This study provides evidence that the limonoid methyl angolensate (MA) is present at higher concentrations in K. ivorensis with symptoms of stem cankers rather than in the plants without symptoms. A rapid, sensitive and selective HPLC-ESI-MS/MS method (using selected reaction monitoring--SRM--mode) was developed for quantification of MA in all aerials parts of such plants, with a good linearity over a range of 0.1-20.0 g/kg, with r(2)>0.996+/-6.1%. The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were less than 0.03 g/kg and 0.08 g/kg, respectively. Relative Standard Deviations (RSDs) ranged from 1.7% to 19.2% for all matrices. While the MA concentration did not change in the stem bark, its amounts increased nearly fourfold in stems and by 20% in leaves, when plants with symptoms were compared with those without symptoms. These data suggest that MA plays a role in plant-pathogen interactions, probably as a phytoanticipin.

MR-Consistent Simultaneous Reconstruction of Attenuation and Activity for Non-TOF PET/MR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heußer, Thorsten; Rank, Christopher M.; Freitag, Martin T.; Dimitrakopoulou-Strauss, Antonia; Schlemmer, Heinz-Peter; Beyer, Thomas; Kachelrieß, Marc

2016-10-01

Attenuation correction (AC) is required for accurate quantification of the reconstructed activity distribution in positron emission tomography (PET). For simultaneous PET/magnetic resonance (MR), however, AC is challenging, since the MR images do not provide direct information on the attenuating properties of the underlying tissue. Standard MR-based AC does not account for the presence of bone and thus leads to an underestimation of the activity distribution. To improve quantification for non-time-of-flight PET/MR, we propose an algorithm which simultaneously reconstructs activity and attenuation distribution from the PET emission data using available MR images as anatomical prior information. The MR information is used to derive voxel-dependent expectations on the attenuation coefficients. The expectations are modeled using Gaussian-like probability functions. An iterative reconstruction scheme incorporating the prior information on the attenuation coefficients is used to update attenuation and activity distribution in an alternating manner. We tested and evaluated the proposed algorithm for simulated 3D PET data of the head and the pelvis region. Activity deviations were below 5% in soft tissue and lesions compared to the ground truth whereas standard MR-based AC resulted in activity underestimation values of up to 12%.

Current role of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry in clinical and forensic toxicology.

PubMed

Maurer, Hans H

2007-08-01

This paper reviews multi-analyte single-stage and tandem liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) procedures using different mass analyzers (quadrupole, ion trap, time-of-flight) for screening, identification, and/or quantification of drugs, poisons, and/or their metabolites in blood, plasma, serum, or urine published after 2004. Basic information about the biosample assayed, work-up, LC column, mobile phase, ionization type, mass spectral detection mode, and validation data of each procedure is summarized in tables. The following analytes are covered: drugs of abuse, analgesics, opioids, sedative-hypnotics, benzodiazepines, antidepressants including selective-serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), herbal phenalkylamines (ephedrines), oral antidiabetics, antiarrhythmics and other cardiovascular drugs, antiretroviral drugs, toxic alkaloids, quaternary ammonium drugs and herbicides, and dialkylphosphate pesticides. The pros and cons of the reviewed procedures are critically discussed, particularly, the need for studies on matrix effects, selectivity, analyte stability, and the use of stable-isotope labeled internal standards instead of unlabeled therapeutic drugs. In conclusion, LC-MS will probably become a gold standard for detection of very low concentrations particularly in alternative matrices and for quantification in clinical and forensic toxicology. However, some drawbacks still need to be addressed and finally overcome.

Quantification of EEG reactivity in comatose patients.

PubMed

Hermans, Mathilde C; Westover, M Brandon; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hirsch, Lawrence J; Gaspard, Nicolas

2016-01-01

EEG reactivity is an important predictor of outcome in comatose patients. However, visual analysis of reactivity is prone to subjectivity and may benefit from quantitative approaches. In EEG segments recorded during reactivity testing in 59 comatose patients, 13 quantitative EEG parameters were used to compare the spectral characteristics of 1-minute segments before and after the onset of stimulation (spectral temporal symmetry). Reactivity was quantified with probability values estimated using combinations of these parameters. The accuracy of probability values as a reactivity classifier was evaluated against the consensus assessment of three expert clinical electroencephalographers using visual analysis. The binary classifier assessing spectral temporal symmetry in four frequency bands (delta, theta, alpha and beta) showed best accuracy (Median AUC: 0.95) and was accompanied by substantial agreement with the individual opinion of experts (Gwet's AC1: 65-70%), at least as good as inter-expert agreement (AC1: 55%). Probability values also reflected the degree of reactivity, as measured by the inter-experts' agreement regarding reactivity for each individual case. Automated quantitative EEG approaches based on probabilistic description of spectral temporal symmetry reliably quantify EEG reactivity. Quantitative EEG may be useful for evaluating reactivity in comatose patients, offering increased objectivity. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking: applications to transfusion medicine.

PubMed

Apelseth, Torunn Oveland; Molnar, Laura; Arnold, Emmy; Heddle, Nancy M

2012-10-01

Benchmarking is as a structured continuous collaborative process in which comparisons for selected indicators are used to identify factors that, when implemented, will improve transfusion practices. This study aimed to identify transfusion medicine studies reporting on benchmarking, summarize the benchmarking approaches used, and identify important considerations to move the concept of benchmarking forward in the field of transfusion medicine. A systematic review of published literature was performed to identify transfusion medicine-related studies that compared at least 2 separate institutions or regions with the intention of benchmarking focusing on 4 areas: blood utilization, safety, operational aspects, and blood donation. Forty-five studies were included: blood utilization (n = 35), safety (n = 5), operational aspects of transfusion medicine (n = 5), and blood donation (n = 0). Based on predefined criteria, 7 publications were classified as benchmarking, 2 as trending, and 36 as single-event studies. Three models of benchmarking are described: (1) a regional benchmarking program that collects and links relevant data from existing electronic sources, (2) a sentinel site model where data from a limited number of sites are collected, and (3) an institutional-initiated model where a site identifies indicators of interest and approaches other institutions. Benchmarking approaches are needed in the field of transfusion medicine. Major challenges include defining best practices and developing cost-effective methods of data collection. For those interested in initiating a benchmarking program, the sentinel site model may be most effective and sustainable as a starting point, although the regional model would be the ideal goal. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

42 CFR 440.330 - Benchmark health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.330 Benchmark health benefits coverage. Benchmark coverage is health...) Federal Employees Health Benefit Plan Equivalent Coverage (FEHBP—Equivalent Health Insurance Coverage). A benefit plan equivalent to the standard Blue Cross/Blue Shield preferred provider option service benefit...

42 CFR 440.330 - Benchmark health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.330 Benchmark health benefits coverage. Benchmark coverage is health...) Federal Employees Health Benefit Plan Equivalent Coverage (FEHBP—Equivalent Health Insurance Coverage). A benefit plan equivalent to the standard Blue Cross/Blue Shield preferred provider option service benefit...

42 CFR 440.330 - Benchmark health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.330 Benchmark health benefits coverage. Benchmark coverage is health...) Federal Employees Health Benefit Plan Equivalent Coverage (FEHBP—Equivalent Health Insurance Coverage). A benefit plan equivalent to the standard Blue Cross/Blue Shield preferred provider option service benefit...

42 CFR 440.330 - Benchmark health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.330 Benchmark health benefits coverage. Benchmark coverage is health...) Federal Employees Health Benefit Plan Equivalent Coverage (FEHBP—Equivalent Health Insurance Coverage). A benefit plan equivalent to the standard Blue Cross/Blue Shield preferred provider option service benefit...

A Web Resource for Standardized Benchmark Datasets, Metrics, and Rosetta Protocols for Macromolecular Modeling and Design.

PubMed

Ó Conchúir, Shane; Barlow, Kyle A; Pache, Roland A; Ollikainen, Noah; Kundert, Kale; O'Meara, Matthew J; Smith, Colin A; Kortemme, Tanja

2015-01-01

The development and validation of computational macromolecular modeling and design methods depend on suitable benchmark datasets and informative metrics for comparing protocols. In addition, if a method is intended to be adopted broadly in diverse biological applications, there needs to be information on appropriate parameters for each protocol, as well as metrics describing the expected accuracy compared to experimental data. In certain disciplines, there exist established benchmarks and public resources where experts in a particular methodology are encouraged to supply their most efficient implementation of each particular benchmark. We aim to provide such a resource for protocols in macromolecular modeling and design. We present a freely accessible web resource (https://kortemmelab.ucsf.edu/benchmarks) to guide the development of protocols for protein modeling and design. The site provides benchmark datasets and metrics to compare the performance of a variety of modeling protocols using different computational sampling methods and energy functions, providing a "best practice" set of parameters for each method. Each benchmark has an associated downloadable benchmark capture archive containing the input files, analysis scripts, and tutorials for running the benchmark. The captures may be run with any suitable modeling method; we supply command lines for running the benchmarks using the Rosetta software suite. We have compiled initial benchmarks for the resource spanning three key areas: prediction of energetic effects of mutations, protein design, and protein structure prediction, each with associated state-of-the-art modeling protocols. With the help of the wider macromolecular modeling community, we hope to expand the variety of benchmarks included on the website and continue to evaluate new iterations of current methods as they become available.

Using benchmarking techniques and the 2011 maternity practices infant nutrition and care (mPINC) survey to improve performance among peer groups across the United States.

PubMed

Edwards, Roger A; Dee, Deborah; Umer, Amna; Perrine, Cria G; Shealy, Katherine R; Grummer-Strawn, Laurence M

2014-02-01

A substantial proportion of US maternity care facilities engage in practices that are not evidence-based and that interfere with breastfeeding. The CDC Survey of Maternity Practices in Infant Nutrition and Care (mPINC) showed significant variation in maternity practices among US states. The purpose of this article is to use benchmarking techniques to identify states within relevant peer groups that were top performers on mPINC survey indicators related to breastfeeding support. We used 11 indicators of breastfeeding-related maternity care from the 2011 mPINC survey and benchmarking techniques to organize and compare hospital-based maternity practices across the 50 states and Washington, DC. We created peer categories for benchmarking first by region (grouping states by West, Midwest, South, and Northeast) and then by size (grouping states by the number of maternity facilities and dividing each region into approximately equal halves based on the number of facilities). Thirty-four states had scores high enough to serve as benchmarks, and 32 states had scores low enough to reflect the lowest score gap from the benchmark on at least 1 indicator. No state served as the benchmark on more than 5 indicators and no state was furthest from the benchmark on more than 7 indicators. The small peer group benchmarks in the South, West, and Midwest were better than the large peer group benchmarks on 91%, 82%, and 36% of the indicators, respectively. In the West large, the Midwest large, the Midwest small, and the South large peer groups, 4-6 benchmarks showed that less than 50% of hospitals have ideal practice in all states. The evaluation presents benchmarks for peer group state comparisons that provide potential and feasible targets for improvement.

Hospital benchmarking: are U.S. eye hospitals ready?

PubMed

de Korne, Dirk F; van Wijngaarden, Jeroen D H; Sol, Kees J C A; Betz, Robert; Thomas, Richard C; Schein, Oliver D; Klazinga, Niek S

2012-01-01

Benchmarking is increasingly considered a useful management instrument to improve quality in health care, but little is known about its applicability in hospital settings. The aims of this study were to assess the applicability of a benchmarking project in U.S. eye hospitals and compare the results with an international initiative. We evaluated multiple cases by applying an evaluation frame abstracted from the literature to five U.S. eye hospitals that used a set of 10 indicators for efficiency benchmarking. Qualitative analysis entailed 46 semistructured face-to-face interviews with stakeholders, document analyses, and questionnaires. The case studies only partially met the conditions of the evaluation frame. Although learning and quality improvement were stated as overall purposes, the benchmarking initiative was at first focused on efficiency only. No ophthalmic outcomes were included, and clinicians were skeptical about their reporting relevance and disclosure. However, in contrast with earlier findings in international eye hospitals, all U.S. hospitals worked with internal indicators that were integrated in their performance management systems and supported benchmarking. Benchmarking can support performance management in individual hospitals. Having a certain number of comparable institutes provide similar services in a noncompetitive milieu seems to lay fertile ground for benchmarking. International benchmarking is useful only when these conditions are not met nationally. Although the literature focuses on static conditions for effective benchmarking, our case studies show that it is a highly iterative and learning process. The journey of benchmarking seems to be more important than the destination. Improving patient value (health outcomes per unit of cost) requires, however, an integrative perspective where clinicians and administrators closely cooperate on both quality and efficiency issues. If these worlds do not share such a relationship, the added "public" value of benchmarking in health care is questionable.

40 CFR 141.172 - Disinfection profiling and benchmarking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... benchmarking. 141.172 Section 141.172 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED... Disinfection-Systems Serving 10,000 or More People § 141.172 Disinfection profiling and benchmarking. (a... sanitary surveys conducted by the State. (c) Disinfection benchmarking. (1) Any system required to develop...

42 CFR 440.390 - Assurance of transportation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...-Equivalent Coverage § 440.390 Assurance of transportation. If a benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan does... nevertheless assure that emergency and non-emergency transportation is covered for beneficiaries enrolled in the benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan, as required under § 431.53 of this chapter. ...

42 CFR 440.390 - Assurance of transportation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...-Equivalent Coverage § 440.390 Assurance of transportation. If a benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan does... nevertheless assure that emergency and non-emergency transportation is covered for beneficiaries enrolled in the benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan, as required under § 431.53 of this chapter. ...

42 CFR 440.390 - Assurance of transportation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...-Equivalent Coverage § 440.390 Assurance of transportation. If a benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan does... nevertheless assure that emergency and non-emergency transportation is covered for beneficiaries enrolled in the benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan, as required under § 431.53 of this chapter. ...

42 CFR 440.390 - Assurance of transportation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...-Equivalent Coverage § 440.390 Assurance of transportation. If a benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan does... nevertheless assure that emergency and non-emergency transportation is covered for beneficiaries enrolled in the benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan, as required under § 431.53 of this chapter. ...

42 CFR 440.390 - Assurance of transportation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...-Equivalent Coverage § 440.390 Assurance of transportation. If a benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan does... nevertheless assure that emergency and non-emergency transportation is covered for beneficiaries enrolled in the benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plan, as required under § 431.53 of this chapter. ...

The Zoo, Benchmarks & You: How To Reach the Oregon State Benchmarks with Zoo Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2002

This document aligns Oregon state educational benchmarks and standards with Oregon Zoo resources. Benchmark areas examined include English, mathematics, science, social studies, and career and life roles. Brief descriptions of the programs offered by the zoo are presented. (SOE)

The Isprs Benchmark on Indoor Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoshelham, K.; Díaz Vilariño, L.; Peter, M.; Kang, Z.; Acharya, D.

2017-09-01

Automated generation of 3D indoor models from point cloud data has been a topic of intensive research in recent years. While results on various datasets have been reported in literature, a comparison of the performance of different methods has not been possible due to the lack of benchmark datasets and a common evaluation framework. The ISPRS benchmark on indoor modelling aims to address this issue by providing a public benchmark dataset and an evaluation framework for performance comparison of indoor modelling methods. In this paper, we present the benchmark dataset comprising several point clouds of indoor environments captured by different sensors. We also discuss the evaluation and comparison of indoor modelling methods based on manually created reference models and appropriate quality evaluation criteria. The benchmark dataset is available for download at: http://www2.isprs.org/commissions/comm4/wg5/benchmark-on-indoor-modelling.html.

Combining Phase Identification and Statistic Modeling for Automated Parallel Benchmark Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ye; Ma, Xiaosong; Liu, Qing Gary

2015-01-01

Parallel application benchmarks are indispensable for evaluating/optimizing HPC software and hardware. However, it is very challenging and costly to obtain high-fidelity benchmarks reflecting the scale and complexity of state-of-the-art parallel applications. Hand-extracted synthetic benchmarks are time-and labor-intensive to create. Real applications themselves, while offering most accurate performance evaluation, are expensive to compile, port, reconfigure, and often plainly inaccessible due to security or ownership concerns. This work contributes APPRIME, a novel tool for trace-based automatic parallel benchmark generation. Taking as input standard communication-I/O traces of an application's execution, it couples accurate automatic phase identification with statistical regeneration of event parameters tomore » create compact, portable, and to some degree reconfigurable parallel application benchmarks. Experiments with four NAS Parallel Benchmarks (NPB) and three real scientific simulation codes confirm the fidelity of APPRIME benchmarks. They retain the original applications' performance characteristics, in particular the relative performance across platforms.« less

Benchmarking in Academic Pharmacy Departments

PubMed Central

Chisholm-Burns, Marie; Nappi, Jean; Gubbins, Paul O.; Ross, Leigh Ann

2010-01-01

Benchmarking in academic pharmacy, and recommendations for the potential uses of benchmarking in academic pharmacy departments are discussed in this paper. Benchmarking is the process by which practices, procedures, and performance metrics are compared to an established standard or best practice. Many businesses and industries use benchmarking to compare processes and outcomes, and ultimately plan for improvement. Institutions of higher learning have embraced benchmarking practices to facilitate measuring the quality of their educational and research programs. Benchmarking is used internally as well to justify the allocation of institutional resources or to mediate among competing demands for additional program staff or space. Surveying all chairs of academic pharmacy departments to explore benchmarking issues such as department size and composition, as well as faculty teaching, scholarly, and service productivity, could provide valuable information. To date, attempts to gather this data have had limited success. We believe this information is potentially important, urge that efforts to gather it should be continued, and offer suggestions to achieve full participation. PMID:21179251

Benchmarking in academic pharmacy departments.

PubMed

Bosso, John A; Chisholm-Burns, Marie; Nappi, Jean; Gubbins, Paul O; Ross, Leigh Ann

2010-10-11

Benchmarking in academic pharmacy, and recommendations for the potential uses of benchmarking in academic pharmacy departments are discussed in this paper. Benchmarking is the process by which practices, procedures, and performance metrics are compared to an established standard or best practice. Many businesses and industries use benchmarking to compare processes and outcomes, and ultimately plan for improvement. Institutions of higher learning have embraced benchmarking practices to facilitate measuring the quality of their educational and research programs. Benchmarking is used internally as well to justify the allocation of institutional resources or to mediate among competing demands for additional program staff or space. Surveying all chairs of academic pharmacy departments to explore benchmarking issues such as department size and composition, as well as faculty teaching, scholarly, and service productivity, could provide valuable information. To date, attempts to gather this data have had limited success. We believe this information is potentially important, urge that efforts to gather it should be continued, and offer suggestions to achieve full participation.

Documentation of probabilistic fracture mechanics codes used for reactor pressure vessels subjected to pressurized thermal shock loading: Parts 1 and 2. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balkey, K.; Witt, F.J.; Bishop, B.A.

1995-06-01

Significant attention has been focused on the issue of reactor vessel pressurized thermal shock (PTS) for many years. Pressurized thermal shock transient events are characterized by a rapid cooldown at potentially high pressure levels that could lead to a reactor vessel integrity concern for some pressurized water reactors. As a result of regulatory and industry efforts in the early 1980`s, a probabilistic risk assessment methodology has been established to address this concern. Probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses are performed as part of this methodology to determine conditional probability of significant flaw extension for given pressurized thermal shock events. While recent industrymore » efforts are underway to benchmark probabilistic fracture mechanics computer codes that are currently used by the nuclear industry, Part I of this report describes the comparison of two independent computer codes used at the time of the development of the original U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) pressurized thermal shock rule. The work that was originally performed in 1982 and 1983 to compare the U.S. NRC - VISA and Westinghouse (W) - PFM computer codes has been documented and is provided in Part I of this report. Part II of this report describes the results of more recent industry efforts to benchmark PFM computer codes used by the nuclear industry. This study was conducted as part of the USNRC-EPRI Coordinated Research Program for reviewing the technical basis for pressurized thermal shock (PTS) analyses of the reactor pressure vessel. The work focused on the probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis codes and methods used to perform the PTS calculations. An in-depth review of the methodologies was performed to verify the accuracy and adequacy of the various different codes. The review was structured around a series of benchmark sample problems to provide a specific context for discussion and examination of the fracture mechanics methodology.« less

Evaluating the Effect of Labeled Benchmarks on Children’s Number Line Estimation Performance and Strategy Use

PubMed Central

Peeters, Dominique; Sekeris, Elke; Verschaffel, Lieven; Luwel, Koen

2017-01-01

Some authors argue that age-related improvements in number line estimation (NLE) performance result from changes in strategy use. More specifically, children’s strategy use develops from only using the origin of the number line, to using the origin and the endpoint, to eventually also relying on the midpoint of the number line. Recently, Peeters et al. (unpublished) investigated whether the provision of additional unlabeled benchmarks at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, positively affects third and fifth graders’ NLE performance and benchmark-based strategy use. It was found that only the older children benefitted from the presence of these benchmarks at the quartiles of the number line (i.e., 25 and 75%), as they made more use of these benchmarks, leading to more accurate estimates. A possible explanation for this lack of improvement in third graders might be their inability to correctly link the presented benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values. In the present study, we investigated whether labeling these benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values, would have a positive effect on younger children’s NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use as well. Third and sixth graders were assigned to one of three conditions: (a) a control condition with an empty number line bounded by 0 at the origin and 1,000 at the endpoint, (b) an unlabeled condition with three additional external benchmarks without numerical labels at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, and (c) a labeled condition in which these benchmarks were labeled with 250, 500, and 750, respectively. Results indicated that labeling the benchmarks has a positive effect on third graders’ NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use, whereas sixth graders already benefited from the mere provision of unlabeled benchmarks. These findings imply that children’s benchmark-based strategy use can be stimulated by adding additional externally provided benchmarks on the number line, but that, depending on children’s age and familiarity with the number range, these additional external benchmarks might need to be labeled. PMID:28713302

Evaluating the Effect of Labeled Benchmarks on Children's Number Line Estimation Performance and Strategy Use.

PubMed

Peeters, Dominique; Sekeris, Elke; Verschaffel, Lieven; Luwel, Koen

2017-01-01

Some authors argue that age-related improvements in number line estimation (NLE) performance result from changes in strategy use. More specifically, children's strategy use develops from only using the origin of the number line, to using the origin and the endpoint, to eventually also relying on the midpoint of the number line. Recently, Peeters et al. (unpublished) investigated whether the provision of additional unlabeled benchmarks at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, positively affects third and fifth graders' NLE performance and benchmark-based strategy use. It was found that only the older children benefitted from the presence of these benchmarks at the quartiles of the number line (i.e., 25 and 75%), as they made more use of these benchmarks, leading to more accurate estimates. A possible explanation for this lack of improvement in third graders might be their inability to correctly link the presented benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values. In the present study, we investigated whether labeling these benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values, would have a positive effect on younger children's NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use as well. Third and sixth graders were assigned to one of three conditions: (a) a control condition with an empty number line bounded by 0 at the origin and 1,000 at the endpoint, (b) an unlabeled condition with three additional external benchmarks without numerical labels at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, and (c) a labeled condition in which these benchmarks were labeled with 250, 500, and 750, respectively. Results indicated that labeling the benchmarks has a positive effect on third graders' NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use, whereas sixth graders already benefited from the mere provision of unlabeled benchmarks. These findings imply that children's benchmark-based strategy use can be stimulated by adding additional externally provided benchmarks on the number line, but that, depending on children's age and familiarity with the number range, these additional external benchmarks might need to be labeled.

Benchmarking Inverse Statistical Approaches for Protein Structure and Design with Exactly Solvable Models.

PubMed

Jacquin, Hugo; Gilson, Amy; Shakhnovich, Eugene; Cocco, Simona; Monasson, Rémi

2016-05-01

Inverse statistical approaches to determine protein structure and function from Multiple Sequence Alignments (MSA) are emerging as powerful tools in computational biology. However the underlying assumptions of the relationship between the inferred effective Potts Hamiltonian and real protein structure and energetics remain untested so far. Here we use lattice protein model (LP) to benchmark those inverse statistical approaches. We build MSA of highly stable sequences in target LP structures, and infer the effective pairwise Potts Hamiltonians from those MSA. We find that inferred Potts Hamiltonians reproduce many important aspects of 'true' LP structures and energetics. Careful analysis reveals that effective pairwise couplings in inferred Potts Hamiltonians depend not only on the energetics of the native structure but also on competing folds; in particular, the coupling values reflect both positive design (stabilization of native conformation) and negative design (destabilization of competing folds). In addition to providing detailed structural information, the inferred Potts models used as protein Hamiltonian for design of new sequences are able to generate with high probability completely new sequences with the desired folds, which is not possible using independent-site models. Those are remarkable results as the effective LP Hamiltonians used to generate MSA are not simple pairwise models due to the competition between the folds. Our findings elucidate the reasons for the success of inverse approaches to the modelling of proteins from sequence data, and their limitations.

Deciphering the magnetic and mineralogical record of the Deccan Traps at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary of the Zumaia section, Basque-Cantabric basin (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Font, Eric; Adatte, Thierry; Andrade, Mariana; Keller, Gerta; Mbabi Bitchong, André; Carvallo, Claire; Ferreira, Joana; Diogo, Zenaida; Mirão, José

2017-04-01

The Deccan Traps Magmatic Province coincides with the Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) boundary and probably contributed to the associated mass extinctions by inducing rapid and abrupt climate changes, including continental and superficial seawater acidification. However, how such environmental acidification is expressed in the marine sedimentary record is still poorly constrained. Recent environmental magnetic studies of the Bidart (France) and Gubbio (Italy) sections proposed new benchmarks to identify the Deccan Traps fingerprint in the marine sedimentary record, namely anomalous concentration in mercury, presence of akagenéite (a Cl-rich oxy-hydroxide forming in hyper-chlorinated and acid conditions) and the loss of detrital and biogenic magnetite by acid reductive dissolution. Here we test this scenario on the Zumaia section, Spain, a reference KPg section cropping out in the Basque-Cantabric basin. Our results confirm the presence of an iron-depleted interval located just below the KPg boundary, similarly to Bidart and Gubbio, and which contains significant amounts of akaganéite grains as well as high content in mercury. These results consolidate the use of the previously cited benchmarks to identify environmental and climate changes induced by the Deccan volcanism. It also suggests that the main eruptive Deccan phase began just before the KPg extinction, reinforcing its contribution in the KPg mass extinction. Publication supported by FCT- project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz

Medical school benchmarking - from tools to programmes.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Tim J; Hudson, Judith N; Mccoll, Geoffrey J; Hu, Wendy C Y; Jolly, Brian C; Schuwirth, Lambert W T

2015-02-01

Benchmarking among medical schools is essential, but may result in unwanted effects. To apply a conceptual framework to selected benchmarking activities of medical schools. We present an analogy between the effects of assessment on student learning and the effects of benchmarking on medical school educational activities. A framework by which benchmarking can be evaluated was developed and applied to key current benchmarking activities in Australia and New Zealand. The analogy generated a conceptual framework that tested five questions to be considered in relation to benchmarking: what is the purpose? what are the attributes of value? what are the best tools to assess the attributes of value? what happens to the results? and, what is the likely "institutional impact" of the results? If the activities were compared against a blueprint of desirable medical graduate outcomes, notable omissions would emerge. Medical schools should benchmark their performance on a range of educational activities to ensure quality improvement and to assure stakeholders that standards are being met. Although benchmarking potentially has positive benefits, it could also result in perverse incentives with unforeseen and detrimental effects on learning if it is undertaken using only a few selected assessment tools.

Consecutive rebounds in plasma viral load are associated with virological failure at 52 weeks among HIV-infected patients.

PubMed

Raboud, Janet M; Rae, Sandra; Woods, Ryan; Harris, Marianne; Montaner, Julio S G

2002-08-16

To describe the characteristics and predictors of transient plasma viral load (pVL) rebounds among patients on stable antiretroviral therapy and to determine the effect of one or more pVL rebounds on virological response at week 52. Individual data were combined from 358 patients from the INCAS, AVANTI-2 and AVANTI-3 studies. Logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship between the magnitude of an increase in pVL and the probability of returning to the lower limit of quantification (LLOQ: 20-50 copies/ml) and to determine the odds of virological success at 52 weeks associated with single and consecutive pVL rebounds. A group of 165 patients achieved a pVL nadir < LLOQ; of these, 85 patients experienced pVL rebounds within 52 weeks. The probability of a pVL rebound was greater among patients who did not adhere to treatment (68% vs 49%; P < 0.05). The probability of reachieving virological suppression after a pVL rebound was not associated with the magnitude of the rebound [odds ratio (OR), 0.86; P = 0.56] but was associated with triple therapy (OR, 2.22; P = 0.06) or non-adherence (OR, 0.40; P = 0.04). The probability of virological success at week 52 was not associated with an isolated pVL rebound but was less likely after detectable pVL at two consecutive visits. An isolated pVL rebound was not associated with virological success at 52 weeks but rebounds at two consecutive visits decreased the probability of later virological success. Given their high risk of short-term virological failure, patients who present with consecutive detectable pVL measurements following complete suppression should be considered ideal candidates for intervention studies.

A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L.

2015-12-01

The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

42 CFR 457.430 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. 457... STATES State Plan Requirements: Coverage and Benefits § 457.430 Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. (a) Aggregate actuarial value. Benchmark-equivalent coverage is health benefits coverage that has...

42 CFR 457.430 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. 457... STATES State Plan Requirements: Coverage and Benefits § 457.430 Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. (a) Aggregate actuarial value. Benchmark-equivalent coverage is health benefits coverage that has...

42 CFR 457.430 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. 457... STATES State Plan Requirements: Coverage and Benefits § 457.430 Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. (a) Aggregate actuarial value. Benchmark-equivalent coverage is health benefits coverage that has...

42 CFR 440.335 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. 440.335 Section 440.335 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND... and Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.335 Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. (a...

42 CFR 440.335 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. 440.335 Section 440.335 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND... and Benchmark-Equivalent Coverage § 440.335 Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage. (a...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandor, Debra; Chung, Donald; Keyser, David

This report documents the CEMAC methodologies for developing and reporting annual global clean energy manufacturing benchmarks. The report reviews previously published manufacturing benchmark reports and foundational data, establishes a framework for benchmarking clean energy technologies, describes the CEMAC benchmark analysis methodologies, and describes the application of the methodologies to the manufacturing of four specific clean energy technologies.

Benchmarking for Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Norman, Ed.; Lund, Helen, Ed.

The chapters in this collection explore the concept of benchmarking as it is being used and developed in higher education (HE). Case studies and reviews show how universities in the United Kingdom are using benchmarking to aid in self-regulation and self-improvement. The chapters are: (1) "Introduction to Benchmarking" (Norman Jackson…

How Benchmarking and Higher Education Came Together

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Gary D.; Ronco, Sharron L.

2012-01-01

This chapter introduces the concept of benchmarking and how higher education institutions began to use benchmarking for a variety of purposes. Here, benchmarking is defined as a strategic and structured approach whereby an organization compares aspects of its processes and/or outcomes to those of another organization or set of organizations to…

Benchmark Study of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing | Advanced

Science.gov Websites

Manufacturing Research | NREL Benchmark Study of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing Benchmark Study of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing Through a first-of-its-kind benchmark study, the Clean Energy Technology End Product.' The study examined four clean energy technologies: wind turbine components

Cross-industry benchmarking: is it applicable to the operating room?

PubMed

Marco, A P; Hart, S

2001-01-01

The use of benchmarking has been growing in nonmedical industries. This concept is being increasingly applied to medicine as the industry strives to improve quality and improve financial performance. Benchmarks can be either internal (set by the institution) or external (use other's performance as a goal). In some industries, benchmarking has crossed industry lines to identify breakthroughs in thinking. In this article, we examine whether the airline industry can be used as a source of external process benchmarking for the operating room.

Overview of TPC Benchmark E: The Next Generation of OLTP Benchmarks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogan, Trish

Set to replace the aging TPC-C, the TPC Benchmark E is the next generation OLTP benchmark, which more accurately models client database usage. TPC-E addresses the shortcomings of TPC-C. It has a much more complex workload, requires the use of RAID-protected storage, generates much less I/O, and is much cheaper and easier to set up, run, and audit. After a period of overlap, it is expected that TPC-E will become the de facto OLTP benchmark.

Implementation and validation of a conceptual benchmarking framework for patient blood management.

PubMed

Kastner, Peter; Breznik, Nada; Gombotz, Hans; Hofmann, Axel; Schreier, Günter

2015-01-01

Public health authorities and healthcare professionals are obliged to ensure high quality health service. Because of the high variability of the utilisation of blood and blood components, benchmarking is indicated in transfusion medicine. Implementation and validation of a benchmarking framework for Patient Blood Management (PBM) based on the report from the second Austrian Benchmark trial. Core modules for automatic report generation have been implemented with KNIME (Konstanz Information Miner) and validated by comparing the output with the results of the second Austrian benchmark trial. Delta analysis shows a deviation <0.1% for 95% (max. 1.4%). The framework provides a reliable tool for PBM benchmarking. The next step is technical integration with hospital information systems.

Implementation of the direct S ( α , β ) method in the KENO Monte Carlo code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hart, Shane W. D.; Maldonado, G. Ivan

The Monte Carlo code KENO contains thermal scattering data for a wide variety of thermal moderators. These data are processed from Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF) by AMPX and stored as double differential probability distribution functions. The method examined in this study uses S(α,β) probability distribution functions derived from the ENDF data files directly instead of being converted to double differential cross sections. This allows the size of the cross section data on the disk to be reduced substantially amount. KENO has also been updated to allow interpolation in temperature on these data so that problems can be run atmore » any temperature. Results are shown for several simplified problems for a variety of moderators. In addition, benchmark models based on the KRITZ reactor in Sweden were run, and the results are compared with the previous versions of KENO without the direct S(α,β) method. Results from the direct S(α,β) method compare favorably with the original results obtained using the double differential cross sections. Finally, sampling the data increases the run-time of the Monte Carlo calculation, but memory usage is decreased substantially.« less

SIMP J013656.5+093347 Is Likely a Planetary-mass Object in the Carina-Near Moving Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagné, Jonathan; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Burgasser, Adam J.; Artigau, Étienne; Bouchard, Sandie; Albert, Loïc; Lafrenière, David; Doyon, René; Bardalez Gagliuffi, Daniella C.

2017-05-01

We report on the discovery that the nearby (˜6 pc) photometrically variable T2.5 dwarf SIMP J013656.5+093347 is a likely member of the ˜200 Myr old Carina-Near moving group with a probability of >99.9% based on its full kinematics. Our v\\sin I measurement of 50.9 ± 0.8 km s-1 combined with the known rotation period inferred from variability measurements provide a lower limit of 1.01 ± 0.02 {R}{Jup} on the radius of SIMP 0136+0933, an independent verification that it must be younger than ˜950 Myr, according to evolution models. We estimate a field interloper probability of 0.2% based on the density of field T0-T5 dwarfs. At the age of Carina-Near, SIMP 0136+0933 has an estimated mass of 12.7 ± 1.0 {M}{Jup} and is predicted to have burned roughly half of its original deuterium. SIMP 0136+0933 is the closest known young moving group member to the Sun and is one of only a few known young T dwarfs, making it an important benchmark for understanding the atmospheres of young planetary-mass objects.

Implementation of the direct S ( α , β ) method in the KENO Monte Carlo code

DOE PAGES

Hart, Shane W. D.; Maldonado, G. Ivan

2016-11-25

The Monte Carlo code KENO contains thermal scattering data for a wide variety of thermal moderators. These data are processed from Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF) by AMPX and stored as double differential probability distribution functions. The method examined in this study uses S(α,β) probability distribution functions derived from the ENDF data files directly instead of being converted to double differential cross sections. This allows the size of the cross section data on the disk to be reduced substantially amount. KENO has also been updated to allow interpolation in temperature on these data so that problems can be run atmore » any temperature. Results are shown for several simplified problems for a variety of moderators. In addition, benchmark models based on the KRITZ reactor in Sweden were run, and the results are compared with the previous versions of KENO without the direct S(α,β) method. Results from the direct S(α,β) method compare favorably with the original results obtained using the double differential cross sections. Finally, sampling the data increases the run-time of the Monte Carlo calculation, but memory usage is decreased substantially.« less

Toxicological benchmarks for potential contaminants of concern for effects on soil and litter invertebrates and heterotrophic process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Will, M.E.; Suter, G.W. II

1995-09-01

An important step in ecological risk assessments is screening the chemicals occur-ring on a site for contaminants of potential concern. Screening may be accomplished by comparing reported ambient concentrations to a set of toxicological benchmarks. Multiple endpoints for assessing risks posed by soil-borne contaminants to organisms directly impacted by them have been established. This report presents benchmarks for soil invertebrates and microbial processes and addresses only chemicals found at United States Department of Energy (DOE) sites. No benchmarks for pesticides are presented. After discussing methods, this report presents the results of the literature review and benchmark derivation for toxicity tomore » earthworms (Sect. 3), heterotrophic microbes and their processes (Sect. 4), and other invertebrates (Sect. 5). The final sections compare the benchmarks to other criteria and background and draw conclusions concerning the utility of the benchmarks.« less

Benchmarks for target tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunham, Darin T.; West, Philip D.

2011-09-01

The term benchmark originates from the chiseled horizontal marks that surveyors made, into which an angle-iron could be placed to bracket ("bench") a leveling rod, thus ensuring that the leveling rod can be repositioned in exactly the same place in the future. A benchmark in computer terms is the result of running a computer program, or a set of programs, in order to assess the relative performance of an object by running a number of standard tests and trials against it. This paper will discuss the history of simulation benchmarks that are being used by multiple branches of the military and agencies of the US government. These benchmarks range from missile defense applications to chemical biological situations. Typically, a benchmark is used with Monte Carlo runs in order to tease out how algorithms deal with variability and the range of possible inputs. We will also describe problems that can be solved by a benchmark.

Benchmarking Using Basic DBMS Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crolotte, Alain; Ghazal, Ahmad

The TPC-H benchmark proved to be successful in the decision support area. Many commercial database vendors and their related hardware vendors used these benchmarks to show the superiority and competitive edge of their products. However, over time, the TPC-H became less representative of industry trends as vendors keep tuning their database to this benchmark-specific workload. In this paper, we present XMarq, a simple benchmark framework that can be used to compare various software/hardware combinations. Our benchmark model is currently composed of 25 queries that measure the performance of basic operations such as scans, aggregations, joins and index access. This benchmark model is based on the TPC-H data model due to its maturity and well-understood data generation capability. We also propose metrics to evaluate single-system performance and compare two systems. Finally we illustrate the effectiveness of this model by showing experimental results comparing two systems under different conditions.

77 FR 70643 - Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Standards Related to Essential Health Benefits...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-26

... coverage \\1\\ in the individual and small group markets, Medicaid benchmark and benchmark-equivalent plans...) Act extends the coverage of the EHB package to issuers of non-grandfathered individual and small group... small group markets, and not to Medicaid benchmark or benchmark-equivalent plans. EHB applicability to...

Discovering and Implementing Best Practices to Strengthen SEAs: Collaborative Benchmarking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Building State Capacity and Productivity Center, 2013

2013-01-01

This paper is written for state educational agency (SEA) leaders who are considering the benefits of collaborative benchmarking, and it addresses the following questions: (1) What does benchmarking of best practices entail?; (2) How does "collaborative benchmarking" enhance the process?; (3) How do SEAs control the process so that "their" needs…

The Concepts "Benchmarks and Benchmarking" Used in Education Planning: Teacher Education as Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steyn, H. J.

2015-01-01

Planning in education is a structured activity that includes several phases and steps that take into account several kinds of information (Steyn, Steyn, De Waal & Wolhuter, 2002: 146). One of the sets of information that are usually considered is the (so-called) "benchmarks" and "benchmarking" regarding the focus of a…

The Craft of Benchmarking: Finding and Utilizing District-Level, Campus-Level, and Program-Level Standards.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGregor, Ellen N.; Attinasi, Louis C., Jr.

This paper describes the processes involved in selecting peer institutions for appropriate benchmarking using national databases (NCES-IPEDS). Benchmarking involves the identification of peer institutions and/or best practices in specific operational areas for the purpose of developing standards. The benchmarking process was borne in the early…

Measuring How Benchmark Assessments Affect Student Achievement. Issues & Answers. REL 2007-No. 039

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Susan; Petrosino, Anthony; Guckenburg, Sarah; Hamilton, Stephen

2007-01-01

This report examines a Massachusetts pilot program for quarterly benchmark exams in middle-school mathematics, finding that program schools do not show greater gains in student achievement after a year. But that finding might reflect limited data rather than ineffective benchmark assessments. Benchmark assessments are used in many districts…

24 CFR 990.185 - Utilities expense level: Incentives for energy conservation/rate reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

...) Utility benchmarking. HUD will pursue benchmarking utility consumption at the project level as part of the... convene a meeting with representation of appropriate stakeholders to review utility benchmarking options so that HUD may determine whether or how to implement utility benchmarking to be effective in FY 2011...

Quality in E-Learning--A Conceptual Framework Based on Experiences from Three International Benchmarking Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ossiannilsson, E.; Landgren, L.

2012-01-01

Between 2008 and 2010, Lund University took part in three international benchmarking projects, "E-xcellence+," the "eLearning Benchmarking Exercise 2009," and the "First Dual-Mode Distance Learning Benchmarking Club." A comparison of these models revealed a rather high level of correspondence. From this finding and…

24 CFR 990.185 - Utilities expense level: Incentives for energy conservation/rate reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) Utility benchmarking. HUD will pursue benchmarking utility consumption at the project level as part of the... convene a meeting with representation of appropriate stakeholders to review utility benchmarking options so that HUD may determine whether or how to implement utility benchmarking to be effective in FY 2011...

40 CFR 141.543 - How is the disinfection benchmark calculated?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false How is the disinfection benchmark... Disinfection-Systems Serving Fewer Than 10,000 People Disinfection Benchmark § 141.543 How is the disinfection benchmark calculated? If your system is making a significant change to its disinfection practice, it must...

40 CFR 141.543 - How is the disinfection benchmark calculated?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false How is the disinfection benchmark... Disinfection-Systems Serving Fewer Than 10,000 People Disinfection Benchmark § 141.543 How is the disinfection benchmark calculated? If your system is making a significant change to its disinfection practice, it must...

40 CFR 141.543 - How is the disinfection benchmark calculated?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false How is the disinfection benchmark... Disinfection-Systems Serving Fewer Than 10,000 People Disinfection Benchmark § 141.543 How is the disinfection benchmark calculated? If your system is making a significant change to its disinfection practice, it must...

40 CFR 141.543 - How is the disinfection benchmark calculated?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false How is the disinfection benchmark... Disinfection-Systems Serving Fewer Than 10,000 People Disinfection Benchmark § 141.543 How is the disinfection benchmark calculated? If your system is making a significant change to its disinfection practice, it must...

Toxicological benchmarks for screening potential contaminants of concern for effects on terrestrial plants: 1994 revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Will, M.E.; Suter, G.W. II

1994-09-01

One of the initial stages in ecological risk assessment for hazardous waste sites is screening contaminants to determine which of them are worthy of further consideration as contaminants of potential concern. This process is termed contaminant screening. It is performed by comparing measured ambient concentrations of chemicals to benchmark concentrations. Currently, no standard benchmark concentrations exist for assessing contaminants in soil with respect to their toxicity to plants. This report presents a standard method for deriving benchmarks for this purpose (phytotoxicity benchmarks), a set of data concerning effects of chemicals in soil or soil solution on plants, and a setmore » of phytotoxicity benchmarks for 38 chemicals potentially associated with United States Department of Energy (DOE) sites. In addition, background information on the phytotoxicity and occurrence of the chemicals in soils is presented, and literature describing the experiments from which data were drawn for benchmark derivation is reviewed. Chemicals that are found in soil at concentrations exceeding both the phytotoxicity benchmark and the background concentration for the soil type should be considered contaminants of potential concern.« less

Toxicological Benchmarks for Screening Potential Contaminants of Concern for Effects on Terrestrial Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter, G.W. II

1993-01-01

One of the initial stages in ecological risk assessment for hazardous waste sites is screening contaminants to determine which of them are worthy of further consideration as contaminants of potential concern. This process is termed contaminant screening. It is performed by comparing measured ambient concentrations of chemicals to benchmark concentrations. Currently, no standard benchmark concentrations exist for assessing contaminants in soil with respect to their toxicity to plants. This report presents a standard method for deriving benchmarks for this purpose (phytotoxicity benchmarks), a set of data concerning effects of chemicals in soil or soil solution on plants, and a setmore » of phytotoxicity benchmarks for 38 chemicals potentially associated with United States Department of Energy (DOE) sites. In addition, background information on the phytotoxicity and occurrence of the chemicals in soils is presented, and literature describing the experiments from which data were drawn for benchmark derivation is reviewed. Chemicals that are found in soil at concentrations exceeding both the phytotoxicity benchmark and the background concentration for the soil type should be considered contaminants of potential concern.« less

Structural Benchmark Creep Testing for Microcast MarM-247 Advanced Stirling Convertor E2 Heater Head Test Article SN18

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, David L.; Brewer, Ethan J.; Pawlik, Ralph

2013-01-01

This report provides test methodology details and qualitative results for the first structural benchmark creep test of an Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) heater head of ASC-E2 design heritage. The test article was recovered from a flight-like Microcast MarM-247 heater head specimen previously used in helium permeability testing. The test article was utilized for benchmark creep test rig preparation, wall thickness and diametral laser scan hardware metrological developments, and induction heater custom coil experiments. In addition, a benchmark creep test was performed, terminated after one week when through-thickness cracks propagated at thermocouple weld locations. Following this, it was used to develop a unique temperature measurement methodology using contact thermocouples, thereby enabling future benchmark testing to be performed without the use of conventional welded thermocouples, proven problematic for the alloy. This report includes an overview of heater head structural benchmark creep testing, the origin of this particular test article, test configuration developments accomplished using the test article, creep predictions for its benchmark creep test, qualitative structural benchmark creep test results, and a short summary.

How to Advance TPC Benchmarks with Dependability Aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Raquel; Poess, Meikel; Nambiar, Raghunath; Patil, Indira; Vieira, Marco

Transactional systems are the core of the information systems of most organizations. Although there is general acknowledgement that failures in these systems often entail significant impact both on the proceeds and reputation of companies, the benchmarks developed and managed by the Transaction Processing Performance Council (TPC) still maintain their focus on reporting bare performance. Each TPC benchmark has to pass a list of dependability-related tests (to verify ACID properties), but not all benchmarks require measuring their performances. While TPC-E measures the recovery time of some system failures, TPC-H and TPC-C only require functional correctness of such recovery. Consequently, systems used in TPC benchmarks are tuned mostly for performance. In this paper we argue that nowadays systems should be tuned for a more comprehensive suite of dependability tests, and that a dependability metric should be part of TPC benchmark publications. The paper discusses WHY and HOW this can be achieved. Two approaches are introduced and discussed: augmenting each TPC benchmark in a customized way, by extending each specification individually; and pursuing a more unified approach, defining a generic specification that could be adjoined to any TPC benchmark.

Microscopic description of pair transfer between two superfluid Fermi systems: Combining phase-space averaging and combinatorial techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regnier, David; Lacroix, Denis; Scamps, Guillaume; Hashimoto, Yukio

2018-03-01

In a mean-field description of superfluidity, particle number and gauge angle are treated as quasiclassical conjugated variables. This level of description was recently used to describe nuclear reactions around the Coulomb barrier. Important effects of the relative gauge angle between two identical superfluid nuclei (symmetric collisions) on transfer probabilities and fusion barrier have been uncovered. A theory making contact with experiments should at least average over different initial relative gauge-angles. In the present work, we propose a new approach to obtain the multiple pair transfer probabilities between superfluid systems. This method, called phase-space combinatorial (PSC) technique, relies both on phase-space averaging and combinatorial arguments to infer the full pair transfer probability distribution at the cost of multiple mean-field calculations only. After benchmarking this approach in a schematic model, we apply it to the collision 20O+20O at various energies below the Coulomb barrier. The predictions for one pair transfer are similar to results obtained with an approximated projection method, whereas significant differences are found for two pairs transfer. Finally, we investigated the applicability of the PSC method to the contact between nonidentical superfluid systems. A generalization of the method is proposed and applied to the schematic model showing that the pair transfer probabilities are reasonably reproduced. The applicability of the PSC method to asymmetric nuclear collisions is investigated for the 14O+20O collision and it turns out that unrealistically small single- and multiple pair transfer probabilities are obtained. This is explained by the fact that relative gauge angle play in this case a minor role in the particle transfer process compared to other mechanisms, such as equilibration of the charge/mass ratio. We conclude that the best ground for probing gauge-angle effects in nuclear reaction and/or for applying the proposed PSC approach on pair transfer is the collisions of identical open-shell spherical nuclei.

Efficient pairwise RNA structure prediction using probabilistic alignment constraints in Dynalign

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Background Joint alignment and secondary structure prediction of two RNA sequences can significantly improve the accuracy of the structural predictions. Methods addressing this problem, however, are forced to employ constraints that reduce computation by restricting the alignments and/or structures (i.e. folds) that are permissible. In this paper, a new methodology is presented for the purpose of establishing alignment constraints based on nucleotide alignment and insertion posterior probabilities. Using a hidden Markov model, posterior probabilities of alignment and insertion are computed for all possible pairings of nucleotide positions from the two sequences. These alignment and insertion posterior probabilities are additively combined to obtain probabilities of co-incidence for nucleotide position pairs. A suitable alignment constraint is obtained by thresholding the co-incidence probabilities. The constraint is integrated with Dynalign, a free energy minimization algorithm for joint alignment and secondary structure prediction. The resulting method is benchmarked against the previous version of Dynalign and against other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction. Results The proposed technique eliminates manual parameter selection in Dynalign and provides significant computational time savings in comparison to prior constraints in Dynalign while simultaneously providing a small improvement in the structural prediction accuracy. Savings are also realized in memory. In experiments over a 5S RNA dataset with average sequence length of approximately 120 nucleotides, the method reduces computation by a factor of 2. The method performs favorably in comparison to other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction: yielding better accuracy, on average, and requiring significantly lesser computational resources. Conclusion Probabilistic analysis can be utilized in order to automate the determination of alignment constraints for pairwise RNA structure prediction methods in a principled fashion. These constraints can reduce the computational and memory requirements of these methods while maintaining or improving their accuracy of structural prediction. This extends the practical reach of these methods to longer length sequences. The revised Dynalign code is freely available for download. PMID:17445273

Space Weather Action Plan Solar Radio Burst Phase 1 Benchmarks and the Steps to Phase 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.; White, S. M.; Gopalswamy, N.; Black, C.; Love, J. J.; Pierson, J.

2017-12-01

Solar radio bursts, when at the right frequency and when strong enough, can interfere with radar, communication, and tracking signals. In severe cases, radio bursts can inhibit the successful use of radio communications and disrupt a wide range of systems that are reliant on Position, Navigation, and Timing services on timescales ranging from minutes to hours across wide areas on the dayside of Earth. The White House's Space Weather Action Plan asked for solar radio burst intensity benchmarks for an event occurrence frequency of 1 in 100 years and also a theoretical maximum intensity benchmark. The benchmark team has developed preliminary (phase 1) benchmarks for the VHF (30-300 MHz), UHF (300-3000 MHz), GPS (1176-1602 MHz), F10.7 (2800 MHz), and Microwave (4000-20000) bands. The preliminary benchmarks were derived based on previously published work. Limitations in the published work will be addressed in phase 2 of the benchmark process. In addition, deriving theoretical maxima requires additional work, where it is even possible to, in order to meet the Action Plan objectives. In this presentation, we will present the phase 1 benchmarks, the basis used to derive them, and the limitations of that work. We will also discuss the work that needs to be done to complete the phase 2 benchmarks.

Comparison of Origin 2000 and Origin 3000 Using NAS Parallel Benchmarks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turney, Raymond D.

2001-01-01

This report describes results of benchmark tests on the Origin 3000 system currently being installed at the NASA Ames National Advanced Supercomputing facility. This machine will ultimately contain 1024 R14K processors. The first part of the system, installed in November, 2000 and named mendel, is an Origin 3000 with 128 R12K processors. For comparison purposes, the tests were also run on lomax, an Origin 2000 with R12K processors. The BT, LU, and SP application benchmarks in the NAS Parallel Benchmark Suite and the kernel benchmark FT were chosen to determine system performance and measure the impact of changes on the machine as it evolves. Having been written to measure performance on Computational Fluid Dynamics applications, these benchmarks are assumed appropriate to represent the NAS workload. Since the NAS runs both message passing (MPI) and shared-memory, compiler directive type codes, both MPI and OpenMP versions of the benchmarks were used. The MPI versions used were the latest official release of the NAS Parallel Benchmarks, version 2.3. The OpenMP versiqns used were PBN3b2, a beta version that is in the process of being released. NPB 2.3 and PBN 3b2 are technically different benchmarks, and NPB results are not directly comparable to PBN results.

Benchmarking, benchmarks, or best practices? Applying quality improvement principles to decrease surgical turnaround time.

PubMed

Mitchell, L

1996-01-01

The processes of benchmarking, benchmark data comparative analysis, and study of best practices are distinctly different. The study of best practices is explained with an example based on the Arthur Andersen & Co. 1992 "Study of Best Practices in Ambulatory Surgery". The results of a national best practices study in ambulatory surgery were used to provide our quality improvement team with the goal of improving the turnaround time between surgical cases. The team used a seven-step quality improvement problem-solving process to improve the surgical turnaround time. The national benchmark for turnaround times between surgical cases in 1992 was 13.5 minutes. The initial turnaround time at St. Joseph's Medical Center was 19.9 minutes. After the team implemented solutions, the time was reduced to an average of 16.3 minutes, an 18% improvement. Cost-benefit analysis showed a potential enhanced revenue of approximately $300,000, or a potential savings of $10,119. Applying quality improvement principles to benchmarking, benchmarks, or best practices can improve process performance. Understanding which form of benchmarking the institution wishes to embark on will help focus a team and use appropriate resources. Communicating with professional organizations that have experience in benchmarking will save time and money and help achieve the desired results.

A shifted hyperbolic augmented Lagrangian-based artificial fish two-swarm algorithm with guaranteed convergence for constrained global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Ana Maria A. C.; Costa, M. Fernanda P.; Fernandes, Edite M. G. P.

2016-12-01

This article presents a shifted hyperbolic penalty function and proposes an augmented Lagrangian-based algorithm for non-convex constrained global optimization problems. Convergence to an ?-global minimizer is proved. At each iteration k, the algorithm requires the ?-global minimization of a bound constrained optimization subproblem, where ?. The subproblems are solved by a stochastic population-based metaheuristic that relies on the artificial fish swarm paradigm and a two-swarm strategy. To enhance the speed of convergence, the algorithm invokes the Nelder-Mead local search with a dynamically defined probability. Numerical experiments with benchmark functions and engineering design problems are presented. The results show that the proposed shifted hyperbolic augmented Lagrangian compares favorably with other deterministic and stochastic penalty-based methods.

A hybrid CS-SA intelligent approach to solve uncertain dynamic facility layout problems considering dependency of demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moslemipour, Ghorbanali

2018-07-01

This paper aims at proposing a quadratic assignment-based mathematical model to deal with the stochastic dynamic facility layout problem. In this problem, product demands are assumed to be dependent normally distributed random variables with known probability density function and covariance that change from period to period at random. To solve the proposed model, a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm is proposed by combining the simulated annealing and clonal selection algorithms. The proposed model and the hybrid algorithm are verified and validated using design of experiment and benchmark methods. The results show that the hybrid algorithm has an outstanding performance from both solution quality and computational time points of view. Besides, the proposed model can be used in both of the stochastic and deterministic situations.

A benchmarking program to reduce red blood cell outdating: implementation, evaluation, and a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Barty, Rebecca L; Gagliardi, Kathleen; Owens, Wendy; Lauzon, Deborah; Scheuermann, Sheena; Liu, Yang; Wang, Grace; Pai, Menaka; Heddle, Nancy M

2015-07-01

Benchmarking is a quality improvement tool that compares an organization's performance to that of its peers for selected indicators, to improve practice. Processes to develop evidence-based benchmarks for red blood cell (RBC) outdating in Ontario hospitals, based on RBC hospital disposition data from Canadian Blood Services, have been previously reported. These benchmarks were implemented in 160 hospitals provincewide with a multifaceted approach, which included hospital education, inventory management tools and resources, summaries of best practice recommendations, recognition of high-performing sites, and audit tools on the Transfusion Ontario website (http://transfusionontario.org). In this study we describe the implementation process and the impact of the benchmarking program on RBC outdating. A conceptual framework for continuous quality improvement of a benchmarking program was also developed. The RBC outdating rate for all hospitals trended downward continuously from April 2006 to February 2012, irrespective of hospitals' transfusion rates or their distance from the blood supplier. The highest annual outdating rate was 2.82%, at the beginning of the observation period. Each year brought further reductions, with a nadir outdating rate of 1.02% achieved in 2011. The key elements of the successful benchmarking strategy included dynamic targets, a comprehensive and evidence-based implementation strategy, ongoing information sharing, and a robust data system to track information. The Ontario benchmarking program for RBC outdating resulted in continuous and sustained quality improvement. Our conceptual iterative framework for benchmarking provides a guide for institutions implementing a benchmarking program. © 2015 AABB.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munro, J.F.; Kristal, J.; Thompson, G.

The Office of Environmental Management is bringing Headquarters and the Field together to implement process improvements throughout the Complex through a systematic process of organizational learning called benchmarking. Simply stated, benchmarking is a process of continuously comparing and measuring practices, processes, or methodologies with those of other private and public organizations. The EM benchmarking program, which began as the result of a recommendation from Xerox Corporation, is building trust and removing barriers to performance enhancement across the DOE organization. The EM benchmarking program is designed to be field-centered with Headquarters providing facilitatory and integrative functions on an ``as needed`` basis.more » One of the main goals of the program is to assist Field Offices and their associated M&O/M&I contractors develop the capabilities to do benchmarking for themselves. In this regard, a central precept is that in order to realize tangible performance benefits, program managers and staff -- the ones closest to the work - must take ownership of the studies. This avoids the ``check the box`` mentality associated with some third party studies. This workshop will provide participants with a basic level of understanding why the EM benchmarking team was developed and the nature and scope of its mission. Participants will also begin to understand the types of study levels and the particular methodology the EM benchmarking team is using to conduct studies. The EM benchmarking team will also encourage discussion on ways that DOE (both Headquarters and the Field) can team with its M&O/M&I contractors to conduct additional benchmarking studies. This ``introduction to benchmarking`` is intended to create a desire to know more and a greater appreciation of how benchmarking processes could be creatively employed to enhance performance.« less

Using Benchmarking Techniques and the 2011 Maternity Practices Infant Nutrition and Care (mPINC) Survey to Improve Performance among Peer Groups across the United States

PubMed Central

Edwards, Roger A.; Dee, Deborah; Umer, Amna; Perrine, Cria G.; Shealy, Katherine R.; Grummer-Strawn, Laurence M.

2015-01-01

Background A substantial proportion of US maternity care facilities engage in practices that are not evidence-based and that interfere with breastfeeding. The CDC Survey of Maternity Practices in Infant Nutrition and Care (mPINC) showed significant variation in maternity practices among US states. Objective The purpose of this article is to use benchmarking techniques to identify states within relevant peer groups that were top performers on mPINC survey indicators related to breastfeeding support. Methods We used 11 indicators of breastfeeding-related maternity care from the 2011 mPINC survey and benchmarking techniques to organize and compare hospital-based maternity practices across the 50 states and Washington, DC. We created peer categories for benchmarking first by region (grouping states by West, Midwest, South, and Northeast) and then by size (grouping states by the number of maternity facilities and dividing each region into approximately equal halves based on the number of facilities). Results Thirty-four states had scores high enough to serve as benchmarks, and 32 states had scores low enough to reflect the lowest score gap from the benchmark on at least 1 indicator. No state served as the benchmark on more than 5 indicators and no state was furthest from the benchmark on more than 7 indicators. The small peer group benchmarks in the South, West, and Midwest were better than the large peer group benchmarks on 91%, 82%, and 36% of the indicators, respectively. In the West large, the Midwest large, the Midwest small, and the South large peer groups, 4–6 benchmarks showed that less than 50% of hospitals have ideal practice in all states. Conclusion The evaluation presents benchmarks for peer group state comparisons that provide potential and feasible targets for improvement. PMID:24394963

Quantification and Multi-purpose Allocation of Water Resources in a Dual-reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salami, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Transboundary rivers that run through separate water management jurisdictions sometimes experience competitive water usage. Where the river has multiple existing or planned dams along its course, quantification and efficient allocation of water for such purposes as hydropower generation, irrigation for agriculture, and water supply can be a challenge. This problem is even more pronounced when large parts of the river basin are located in semi-arid regions known for water insecurity, poor crop yields from irrigation scheme failures, and human population displacement arising from water-related conflict. This study seeks to mitigate the impacts of such factors on the Kainji-Jebba dual-reservoir system located along the Niger River in Africa by seasonally quantifying and efficiently apportioning water to all stipulated uses of both dams thereby improving operational policy and long-term water security. Historical storage fluctuations (18 km3 to 5 km3) and flows into and out of both reservoirs were analyzed for relationships to such things as surrounding catchment contribution, dam operational policies, irrigation and hydropower requirements, etc. Optimum values of the aforementioned parameters were then determined by simulations based upon hydrological contributions and withdrawals and worst case scenarios of natural and anthropogenic conditions (like annual probability of reservoir depletion) affecting water availability and allocation. Finally, quantification and optimized allocation of water was done based on needs for hydropower, irrigation for agriculture, water supply, and storage evacuation for flood control. Results revealed that water supply potential increased by 69%, average agricultural yield improved by 36%, and hydropower generation increased by 54% and 66% at the upstream and downstream dams respectively. Lessons learned from this study may help provide a robust and practical means of water resources management in similar river basins and multi-reservoir systems.

Characterization of the exogenous insert and development of event-specific PCR detection methods for genetically modified Huanong No. 1 papaya.

PubMed

Guo, Jinchao; Yang, Litao; Liu, Xin; Guan, Xiaoyan; Jiang, Lingxi; Zhang, Dabing

2009-08-26

Genetically modified (GM) papaya (Carica papaya L.), Huanong No. 1, was approved for commercialization in Guangdong province, China in 2006, and the development of the Huanong No. 1 papaya detection method is necessary for implementing genetically modified organism (GMO) labeling regulations. In this study, we reported the characterization of the exogenous integration of GM Huanong No. 1 papaya by means of conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and thermal asymmetric interlaced (TAIL)-PCR strategies. The results suggested that one intact copy of the initial construction was integrated in the papaya genome and which probably resulted in one deletion (38 bp in size) of the host genomic DNA. Also, one unintended insertion of a 92 bp truncated NptII fragment was observed at the 5' end of the exogenous insert. Furthermore, we revealed its 5' and 3' flanking sequences between the insert DNA and the papaya genomic DNA, and developed the event-specific qualitative and quantitative PCR assays for GM Huanong No. 1 papaya based on the 5' integration flanking sequence. The relative limit of detection (LOD) of the qualitative PCR assay was about 0.01% in 100 ng of total papaya genomic DNA, corresponding to about 25 copies of papaya haploid genome. In the quantitative PCR, the limits of detection and quantification (LOD and LOQ) were as low as 12.5 and 25 copies of papaya haploid genome, respectively. In practical sample quantification, the quantified biases between the test and true values of three samples ranged from 0.44% to 4.41%. Collectively, we proposed that all of these results are useful for the identification and quantification of Huanong No. 1 papaya and its derivates.

Stationary plasma thruster evaluation in Russia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brophy, John R.

1992-01-01

A team of electric propulsion specialists from U.S. government laboratories experimentally evaluated the performance of a 1.35-kW Stationary Plasma Thruster (SPT) at the Scientific Research Institute of Thermal Processes in Moscow and at 'Fakel' Enterprise in Kaliningrad, Russia. The evaluation was performed using a combination of U.S. and Russian instrumentation and indicated that the actual performance of the thruster appears to be close to the claimed performance. The claimed performance was a specific impulse of 16,000 m/s, an overall efficiency of 50 percent, and an input power of 1.35 kW, and is superior to the performance of western electric thrusters at this specific impulse. The unique performance capabilities of the stationary plasma thruster, along with claims that more than fifty of the 660-W thrusters have been flown in space on Russian spacecraft, attracted the interest of western spacecraft propulsion specialists. A two-phase program was initiated to evaluate the stationary plasma thruster performance and technology. The first phase of this program, to experimentally evaluate the performance of the thruster with U.S. instrumentation in Russia, is described in this report. The second phase objective is to determine the suitability of the stationary plasma thruster technology for use on western spacecraft. This will be accomplished by bringing stationary plasma thrusters to the U.S. for quantification of thruster erosion rates, measurements of the performance variation as a function of long-duration operation, quantification of the exhaust beam divergence angle, and determination of the non-propellant efflux from the thruster. These issues require quantification in order to maximize the probability for user application of the SPT technology and significantly increase the propulsion capabilities of U.S. spacecraft.

76 FR 58420 - Direct Investment Surveys: BE-12, Benchmark Survey of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-21

...] RIN 0691-AA80 Direct Investment Surveys: BE-12, Benchmark Survey of Foreign Direct Investment in the... of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States. Benchmark surveys are conducted every five years; the prior survey covered 2007. The benchmark survey covers the universe of foreign direct investment...

Unstructured Adaptive (UA) NAS Parallel Benchmark. Version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feng, Huiyu; VanderWijngaart, Rob; Biswas, Rupak; Mavriplis, Catherine

2004-01-01

We present a complete specification of a new benchmark for measuring the performance of modern computer systems when solving scientific problems featuring irregular, dynamic memory accesses. It complements the existing NAS Parallel Benchmark suite. The benchmark involves the solution of a stylized heat transfer problem in a cubic domain, discretized on an adaptively refined, unstructured mesh.

Operationalizing the Rubric: The Effect of Benchmark Selection on the Assessed Quality of Writing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Popp, Sharon E. Osborn; Ryan, Joseph M.; Thompson, Marilyn S.; Behrens, John T.

The purposes of this study were to investigate the role of benchmark writing samples in direct assessment of writing and to examine the consequences of differential benchmark selection with a common writing rubric. The influences of discourse and grade level were also examined within the context of differential benchmark selection. Raters scored…

A Causal-Comparative Study of the Affects of Benchmark Assessments on Middle Grades Science Achievement Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galloway, Melissa Ritchie

2016-01-01

The purpose of this causal comparative study was to test the theory of assessment that relates benchmark assessments to the Georgia middle grades science Criterion Referenced Competency Test (CRCT) percentages, controlling for schools who do not administer benchmark assessments versus schools who do administer benchmark assessments for all middle…

77 FR 58512 - Corrosion-Resistant Carbon Steel Flat Products From the Republic of Korea: Preliminary Results of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... 2006 Decision Memorandum) at ``Benchmarks for Short-Term Financing.'' B. Benchmark for Long-Term Loans.... Subsidies Valuation Information A. Benchmarks for Short-Term Financing For those programs requiring the application of a won-denominated, short-term interest rate benchmark, in accordance with 19 CFR 351.505(a)(2...

Transaction Processing Performance Council (TPC): State of the Council 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nambiar, Raghunath; Wakou, Nicholas; Carman, Forrest; Majdalany, Michael

The Transaction Processing Performance Council (TPC) is a non-profit corporation founded to define transaction processing and database benchmarks and to disseminate objective, verifiable performance data to the industry. Established in August 1988, the TPC has been integral in shaping the landscape of modern transaction processing and database benchmarks over the past twenty-two years. This paper provides an overview of the TPC's existing benchmark standards and specifications, introduces two new TPC benchmarks under development, and examines the TPC's active involvement in the early creation of additional future benchmarks.

Shift Verification and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pandya, Tara M.; Evans, Thomas M.; Davidson, Gregory G

2016-09-07

This documentation outlines the verification and validation of Shift for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Five main types of problems were used for validation: small criticality benchmark problems; full-core reactor benchmarks for light water reactors; fixed-source coupled neutron-photon dosimetry benchmarks; depletion/burnup benchmarks; and full-core reactor performance benchmarks. We compared Shift results to measured data and other simulated Monte Carlo radiation transport code results, and found very good agreement in a variety of comparison measures. These include prediction of critical eigenvalue, radial and axial pin power distributions, rod worth, leakage spectra, and nuclide inventories over amore » burn cycle. Based on this validation of Shift, we are confident in Shift to provide reference results for CASL benchmarking.« less

Data Acceptance Criteria for Standardized Human-Associated Fecal Source Identification Quantitative Real-Time PCR Methods.

PubMed

Shanks, Orin C; Kelty, Catherine A; Oshiro, Robin; Haugland, Richard A; Madi, Tania; Brooks, Lauren; Field, Katharine G; Sivaganesan, Mano

2016-05-01

There is growing interest in the application of human-associated fecal source identification quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) technologies for water quality management. The transition from a research tool to a standardized protocol requires a high degree of confidence in data quality across laboratories. Data quality is typically determined through a series of specifications that ensure good experimental practice and the absence of bias in the results due to DNA isolation and amplification interferences. However, there is currently a lack of consensus on how best to evaluate and interpret human fecal source identification qPCR experiments. This is, in part, due to the lack of standardized protocols and information on interlaboratory variability under conditions for data acceptance. The aim of this study is to provide users and reviewers with a complete series of conditions for data acceptance derived from a multiple laboratory data set using standardized procedures. To establish these benchmarks, data from HF183/BacR287 and HumM2 human-associated qPCR methods were generated across 14 laboratories. Each laboratory followed a standardized protocol utilizing the same lot of reference DNA materials, DNA isolation kits, amplification reagents, and test samples to generate comparable data. After removal of outliers, a nested analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to establish proficiency metrics that include lab-to-lab, replicate testing within a lab, and random error for amplification inhibition and sample processing controls. Other data acceptance measurements included extraneous DNA contamination assessments (no-template and extraction blank controls) and calibration model performance (correlation coefficient, amplification efficiency, and lower limit of quantification). To demonstrate the implementation of the proposed standardized protocols and data acceptance criteria, comparable data from two additional laboratories were reviewed. The data acceptance criteria proposed in this study should help scientists, managers, reviewers, and the public evaluate the technical quality of future findings against an established benchmark. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for ground motions and fault displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stepp, J.C.; Wong, I.; Whitney, J.; Quittmeyer, R.; Abrahamson, N.; Toro, G.; Young, S.R.; Coppersmith, K.; Savy, J.; Sullivan, T.

2001-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted to estimate both ground motion and fault displacement hazards at the potential geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study is believed to be the largest and most comprehensive analyses ever conducted for ground-shaking hazard and is a first-of-a-kind assessment of probabilistic fault displacement hazard. The major emphasis of the study was on the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Six teams of three experts performed seismic source and fault displacement evaluations, and seven individual experts provided ground motion evaluations. State-of-the-practice expert elicitation processes involving structured workshops, consensus identification of parameters and issues to be evaluated, common sharing of data and information, and open exchanges about the basis for preliminary interpretations were implemented. Ground-shaking hazard was computed for a hypothetical rock outcrop at -300 m, the depth of the potential waste emplacement drifts, at the designated design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-3 and 10-4. The fault displacement hazard was calculated at the design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-4 and 10-5.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Beyond the cortical column: abundance and physiology of horizontal connections imply a strong role for inputs from the surround.

PubMed

Boucsein, Clemens; Nawrot, Martin P; Schnepel, Philipp; Aertsen, Ad

2011-01-01

Current concepts of cortical information processing and most cortical network models largely rest on the assumption that well-studied properties of local synaptic connectivity are sufficient to understand the generic properties of cortical networks. This view seems to be justified by the observation that the vertical connectivity within local volumes is strong, whereas horizontally, the connection probability between pairs of neurons drops sharply with distance. Recent neuroanatomical studies, however, have emphasized that a substantial fraction of synapses onto neocortical pyramidal neurons stems from cells outside the local volume. Here, we discuss recent findings on the signal integration from horizontal inputs, showing that they could serve as a substrate for reliable and temporally precise signal propagation. Quantification of connection probabilities and parameters of synaptic physiology as a function of lateral distance indicates that horizontal projections constitute a considerable fraction, if not the majority, of inputs from within the cortical network. Taking these non-local horizontal inputs into account may dramatically change our current view on cortical information processing.

Probabilistic determination of probe locations from distance data

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiao-Ping; Slaughter, Brian D.; Volkmann, Niels

2013-01-01

Distance constraints, in principle, can be employed to determine information about the location of probes within a three-dimensional volume. Traditional methods for locating probes from distance constraints involve optimization of scoring functions that measure how well the probe location fits the distance data, exploring only a small subset of the scoring function landscape in the process. These methods are not guaranteed to find the global optimum and provide no means to relate the identified optimum to all other optima in scoring space. Here, we introduce a method for the location of probes from distance information that is based on probability calculus. This method allows exploration of the entire scoring space by directly combining probability functions representing the distance data and information about attachment sites. The approach is guaranteed to identify the global optimum and enables the derivation of confidence intervals for the probe location as well as statistical quantification of ambiguities. We apply the method to determine the location of a fluorescence probe using distances derived by FRET and show that the resulting location matches that independently derived by electron microscopy. PMID:23770585

Vulnerability inducing technologies: An initial appreciation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reinhardt, G.C.

The arms control community continues to act as though vulnerability were directly proportional to numbers of nuclear weapons, however rapidly they would voice their rejection of such a proposition if it were placed before them in an intellectual forum. Such neglect in matching action to knowledge is a well-known human phenomenon, but in this case it is particularly troublesome. START manages to reduce the numbers of weapons to just the right extent to encourage damage limiting. The present number of nuclear weapons on either side probably provides a robust deterrent; six thousand probably does not. To make matters worse, wemore » live in a period of burgeoning technical expansion, so that even with the best intent on both sides, new technology threatens to cause new vulnerabilities in strategic systems. To pin a shorthand label on the problem, we will refer to vulnerability inducing technology as ''VIT.'' In order to appreciate VIT, we will make a rough quantification of its consequences. This will at least provide some incentive for further study because the consequences are grave indeed. 2 tabs.« less

Uncertainty quantification of crustal scale thermo-chemical properties in Southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mather, B.; Moresi, L. N.; Rayner, P. J.

2017-12-01

The thermo-chemical properties of the crust are essential to understanding the mechanical and thermal state of the lithosphere. The uncertainties associated with these parameters are connected to the available geophysical observations and a priori information to constrain the objective function. Often, it is computationally efficient to reduce the parameter space by mapping large portions of the crust into lithologies that have assumed homogeneity. However, the boundaries of these lithologies are, in themselves, uncertain and should also be included in the inverse problem. We assimilate geological uncertainties from an a priori geological model of Southeast Australia with geophysical uncertainties from S-wave tomography and 174 heat flow observations within an adjoint inversion framework. This reduces the computational cost of inverting high dimensional probability spaces, compared to probabilistic inversion techniques that operate in the `forward' mode, but at the sacrifice of uncertainty and covariance information. We overcome this restriction using a sensitivity analysis, that perturbs our observations and a priori information within their probability distributions, to estimate the posterior uncertainty of thermo-chemical parameters in the crust.

Myocardium Segmentation From DE MRI Using Multicomponent Gaussian Mixture Model and Coupled Level Set.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Zhuang, Xiahai; Wu, Lianming; An, Dongaolei; Xu, Jianrong; Peters, Terry; Gu, Lixu

2017-11-01

Objective: In this paper, we propose a fully automatic framework for myocardium segmentation of delayed-enhancement (DE) MRI images without relying on prior patient-specific information. Methods: We employ a multicomponent Gaussian mixture model to deal with the intensity heterogeneity of myocardium caused by the infarcts. To differentiate the myocardium from other tissues with similar intensities, while at the same time maintain spatial continuity, we introduce a coupled level set (CLS) to regularize the posterior probability. The CLS, as a spatial regularization, can be adapted to the image characteristics dynamically. We also introduce an image intensity gradient based term into the CLS, adding an extra force to the posterior probability based framework, to improve the accuracy of myocardium boundary delineation. The prebuilt atlases are propagated to the target image to initialize the framework. Results: The proposed method was tested on datasets of 22 clinical cases, and achieved Dice similarity coefficients of 87.43 ± 5.62% (endocardium), 90.53 ± 3.20% (epicardium) and 73.58 ± 5.58% (myocardium), which have outperformed three variants of the classic segmentation methods. Conclusion: The results can provide a benchmark for the myocardial segmentation in the literature. Significance: DE MRI provides an important tool to assess the viability of myocardium. The accurate segmentation of myocardium, which is a prerequisite for further quantitative analysis of myocardial infarction (MI) region, can provide important support for the diagnosis and treatment management for MI patients. Objective: In this paper, we propose a fully automatic framework for myocardium segmentation of delayed-enhancement (DE) MRI images without relying on prior patient-specific information. Methods: We employ a multicomponent Gaussian mixture model to deal with the intensity heterogeneity of myocardium caused by the infarcts. To differentiate the myocardium from other tissues with similar intensities, while at the same time maintain spatial continuity, we introduce a coupled level set (CLS) to regularize the posterior probability. The CLS, as a spatial regularization, can be adapted to the image characteristics dynamically. We also introduce an image intensity gradient based term into the CLS, adding an extra force to the posterior probability based framework, to improve the accuracy of myocardium boundary delineation. The prebuilt atlases are propagated to the target image to initialize the framework. Results: The proposed method was tested on datasets of 22 clinical cases, and achieved Dice similarity coefficients of 87.43 ± 5.62% (endocardium), 90.53 ± 3.20% (epicardium) and 73.58 ± 5.58% (myocardium), which have outperformed three variants of the classic segmentation methods. Conclusion: The results can provide a benchmark for the myocardial segmentation in the literature. Significance: DE MRI provides an important tool to assess the viability of myocardium. The accurate segmentation of myocardium, which is a prerequisite for further quantitative analysis of myocardial infarction (MI) region, can provide important support for the diagnosis and treatment management for MI patients.

Developing integrated benchmarks for DOE performance measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barancik, J.I.; Kramer, C.F.; Thode, Jr. H.C.

1992-09-30

The objectives of this task were to describe and evaluate selected existing sources of information on occupational safety and health with emphasis on hazard and exposure assessment, abatement, training, reporting, and control identifying for exposure and outcome in preparation for developing DOE performance benchmarks. Existing resources and methodologies were assessed for their potential use as practical performance benchmarks. Strengths and limitations of current data resources were identified. Guidelines were outlined for developing new or improved performance factors, which then could become the basis for selecting performance benchmarks. Data bases for non-DOE comparison populations were identified so that DOE performance couldmore » be assessed relative to non-DOE occupational and industrial groups. Systems approaches were described which can be used to link hazards and exposure, event occurrence, and adverse outcome factors, as needed to generate valid, reliable, and predictive performance benchmarks. Data bases were identified which contain information relevant to one or more performance assessment categories . A list of 72 potential performance benchmarks was prepared to illustrate the kinds of information that can be produced through a benchmark development program. Current information resources which may be used to develop potential performance benchmarks are limited. There is need to develop an occupational safety and health information and data system in DOE, which is capable of incorporating demonstrated and documented performance benchmarks prior to, or concurrent with the development of hardware and software. A key to the success of this systems approach is rigorous development and demonstration of performance benchmark equivalents to users of such data before system hardware and software commitments are institutionalized.« less

Benchmark Evaluation of HTR-PROTEUS Pebble Bed Experimental Program

DOE PAGES

Bess, John D.; Montierth, Leland; Köberl, Oliver; ...

2014-10-09

Benchmark models were developed to evaluate 11 critical core configurations of the HTR-PROTEUS pebble bed experimental program. Various additional reactor physics measurements were performed as part of this program; currently only a total of 37 absorber rod worth measurements have been evaluated as acceptable benchmark experiments for Cores 4, 9, and 10. Dominant uncertainties in the experimental keff for all core configurations come from uncertainties in the ²³⁵U enrichment of the fuel, impurities in the moderator pebbles, and the density and impurity content of the radial reflector. Calculations of k eff with MCNP5 and ENDF/B-VII.0 neutron nuclear data aremore » greater than the benchmark values but within 1% and also within the 3σ uncertainty, except for Core 4, which is the only randomly packed pebble configuration. Repeated calculations of k eff with MCNP6.1 and ENDF/B-VII.1 are lower than the benchmark values and within 1% (~3σ) except for Cores 5 and 9, which calculate lower than the benchmark eigenvalues within 4σ. The primary difference between the two nuclear data libraries is the adjustment of the absorption cross section of graphite. Simulations of the absorber rod worth measurements are within 3σ of the benchmark experiment values. The complete benchmark evaluation details are available in the 2014 edition of the International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments.« less

A comparison of numerical solutions of partial differential equations with probabilistic and possibilistic parameters for the quantification of uncertainty in subsurface solute transport.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Li, Hua

2009-11-03

Traditionally, uncertainty in parameters are represented as probabilistic distributions and incorporated into groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. With the advent of newer uncertainty theories, it is now understood that stochastic methods cannot properly represent non random uncertainties. In the groundwater flow and contaminant transport equations, uncertainty in some parameters may be random, whereas those of others may be non random. The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy-stochastic partial differential equation (FSPDE) model to simulate conditions where both random and non random uncertainties are involved in groundwater flow and solute transport. Three potential solution techniques namely, (a) transforming a probability distribution to a possibility distribution (Method I) then a FSPDE becomes a fuzzy partial differential equation (FPDE), (b) transforming a possibility distribution to a probability distribution (Method II) and then a FSPDE becomes a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), and (c) the combination of Monte Carlo methods and FPDE solution techniques (Method III) are proposed and compared. The effects of these three methods on the predictive results are investigated by using two case studies. The results show that the predictions obtained from Method II is a specific case of that got from Method I. When an exact probabilistic result is needed, Method II is suggested. As the loss or gain of information during a probability-possibility (or vice versa) transformation cannot be quantified, their influences on the predictive results is not known. Thus, Method III should probably be preferred for risk assessments.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

15 CFR 806.17 - Rules and regulations for BE-12, 2007 Benchmark Survey of Foreign Direct Investment in the United...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Benchmark Survey of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States. 806.17 Section 806.17 Commerce and... Survey of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States. A BE-12, Benchmark Survey of Foreign Direct... of the BE-12, 2007 Benchmark Survey of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, contained in...

Thought Experiment to Examine Benchmark Performance for Fusion Nuclear Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murata, Isao; Ohta, Masayuki; Kusaka, Sachie; Sato, Fuminobu; Miyamaru, Hiroyuki

2017-09-01

There are many benchmark experiments carried out so far with DT neutrons especially aiming at fusion reactor development. These integral experiments seemed vaguely to validate the nuclear data below 14 MeV. However, no precise studies exist now. The author's group thus started to examine how well benchmark experiments with DT neutrons can play a benchmarking role for energies below 14 MeV. Recently, as a next phase, to generalize the above discussion, the energy range was expanded to the entire region. In this study, thought experiments with finer energy bins have thus been conducted to discuss how to generally estimate performance of benchmark experiments. As a result of thought experiments with a point detector, the sensitivity for a discrepancy appearing in the benchmark analysis is "equally" due not only to contribution directly conveyed to the deterctor, but also due to indirect contribution of neutrons (named (A)) making neutrons conveying the contribution, indirect controbution of neutrons (B) making the neutrons (A) and so on. From this concept, it would become clear from a sensitivity analysis in advance how well and which energy nuclear data could be benchmarked with a benchmark experiment.

[The OPTIMISE study (Optimal Type 2 Diabetes Management Including Benchmarking and Standard Treatment]. Results for Luxembourg].

PubMed

Michel, G

2012-01-01

The OPTIMISE study (NCT00681850) has been run in six European countries, including Luxembourg, to prospectively assess the effect of benchmarking on the quality of primary care in patients with type 2 diabetes, using major modifiable vascular risk factors as critical quality indicators. Primary care centers treating type 2 diabetic patients were randomized to give standard care (control group) or standard care with feedback benchmarked against other centers in each country (benchmarking group). Primary endpoint was percentage of patients in the benchmarking group achieving pre-set targets of the critical quality indicators: glycated hemoglobin (HbAlc), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol after 12 months follow-up. In Luxembourg, in the benchmarking group, more patients achieved target for SBP (40.2% vs. 20%) and for LDL-cholesterol (50.4% vs. 44.2%). 12.9% of patients in the benchmarking group met all three targets compared with patients in the control group (8.3%). In this randomized, controlled study, benchmarking was shown to be an effective tool for improving critical quality indicator targets, which are the principal modifiable vascular risk factors in diabetes type 2.

PDS: A Performance Database Server

DOE PAGES

Berry, Michael W.; Dongarra, Jack J.; Larose, Brian H.; ...

1994-01-01

The process of gathering, archiving, and distributing computer benchmark data is a cumbersome task usually performed by computer users and vendors with little coordination. Most important, there is no publicly available central depository of performance data for all ranges of machines from personal computers to supercomputers. We present an Internet-accessible performance database server (PDS) that can be used to extract current benchmark data and literature. As an extension to the X-Windows-based user interface (Xnetlib) to the Netlib archival system, PDS provides an on-line catalog of public domain computer benchmarks such as the LINPACK benchmark, Perfect benchmarks, and the NAS parallelmore » benchmarks. PDS does not reformat or present the benchmark data in any way that conflicts with the original methodology of any particular benchmark; it is thereby devoid of any subjective interpretations of machine performance. We believe that all branches (research laboratories, academia, and industry) of the general computing community can use this facility to archive performance metrics and make them readily available to the public. PDS can provide a more manageable approach to the development and support of a large dynamic database of published performance metrics.« less

Do Medicare Advantage Plans Minimize Costs? Investigating the Relationship Between Benchmarks, Costs, and Rebates.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Stephen; Skopec, Laura; Guterman, Stuart

2017-12-01

Medicare Advantage (MA), the program that allows people to receive their Medicare benefits through private health plans, uses a benchmark-and-bidding system to induce plans to provide benefits at lower costs. However, prior research suggests medical costs, profits, and other plan costs are not as low under this system as they might otherwise be. To examine how well the current system encourages MA plans to bid their lowest cost by examining the relationship between costs and bonuses (rebates) and the benchmarks Medicare uses in determining plan payments. Regression analysis using 2015 data for HMO and local PPO plans. Costs and rebates are higher for MA plans in areas with higher benchmarks, and plan costs vary less than benchmarks do. A one-dollar increase in benchmarks is associated with 32-cent-higher plan costs and a 52-cent-higher rebate, even when controlling for market and plan factors that can affect costs. This suggests the current benchmark-and-bidding system allows plans to bid higher than local input prices and other market conditions would seem to warrant. To incentivize MA plans to maximize efficiency and minimize costs, Medicare could change the way benchmarks are set or used.

The art and science of using routine outcome measurement in mental health benchmarking.

PubMed

McKay, Roderick; Coombs, Tim; Duerden, David

2014-02-01

To report and critique the application of routine outcome measurement data when benchmarking Australian mental health services. The experience of the authors as participants and facilitators of benchmarking activities is augmented by a review of the literature regarding mental health benchmarking in Australia. Although the published literature is limited, in practice, routine outcome measures, in particular the Health of the National Outcomes Scales (HoNOS) family of measures, are used in a variety of benchmarking activities. Use in exploring similarities and differences in consumers between services and the outcomes of care are illustrated. This requires the rigour of science in data management and interpretation, supplemented by the art that comes from clinical experience, a desire to reflect on clinical practice and the flexibility to use incomplete data to explore clinical practice. Routine outcome measurement data can be used in a variety of ways to support mental health benchmarking. With the increasing sophistication of information development in mental health, the opportunity to become involved in benchmarking will continue to increase. The techniques used during benchmarking and the insights gathered may prove useful to support reflection on practice by psychiatrists and other senior mental health clinicians.

Benchmarking Strategies for Measuring the Quality of Healthcare: Problems and Prospects

PubMed Central

Lovaglio, Pietro Giorgio

2012-01-01

Over the last few years, increasing attention has been directed toward the problems inherent to measuring the quality of healthcare and implementing benchmarking strategies. Besides offering accreditation and certification processes, recent approaches measure the performance of healthcare institutions in order to evaluate their effectiveness, defined as the capacity to provide treatment that modifies and improves the patient's state of health. This paper, dealing with hospital effectiveness, focuses on research methods for effectiveness analyses within a strategy comparing different healthcare institutions. The paper, after having introduced readers to the principle debates on benchmarking strategies, which depend on the perspective and type of indicators used, focuses on the methodological problems related to performing consistent benchmarking analyses. Particularly, statistical methods suitable for controlling case-mix, analyzing aggregate data, rare events, and continuous outcomes measured with error are examined. Specific challenges of benchmarking strategies, such as the risk of risk adjustment (case-mix fallacy, underreporting, risk of comparing noncomparable hospitals), selection bias, and possible strategies for the development of consistent benchmarking analyses, are discussed. Finally, to demonstrate the feasibility of the illustrated benchmarking strategies, an application focused on determining regional benchmarks for patient satisfaction (using 2009 Lombardy Region Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire) is proposed. PMID:22666140

Benchmarking strategies for measuring the quality of healthcare: problems and prospects.

PubMed

Lovaglio, Pietro Giorgio

2012-01-01

Over the last few years, increasing attention has been directed toward the problems inherent to measuring the quality of healthcare and implementing benchmarking strategies. Besides offering accreditation and certification processes, recent approaches measure the performance of healthcare institutions in order to evaluate their effectiveness, defined as the capacity to provide treatment that modifies and improves the patient's state of health. This paper, dealing with hospital effectiveness, focuses on research methods for effectiveness analyses within a strategy comparing different healthcare institutions. The paper, after having introduced readers to the principle debates on benchmarking strategies, which depend on the perspective and type of indicators used, focuses on the methodological problems related to performing consistent benchmarking analyses. Particularly, statistical methods suitable for controlling case-mix, analyzing aggregate data, rare events, and continuous outcomes measured with error are examined. Specific challenges of benchmarking strategies, such as the risk of risk adjustment (case-mix fallacy, underreporting, risk of comparing noncomparable hospitals), selection bias, and possible strategies for the development of consistent benchmarking analyses, are discussed. Finally, to demonstrate the feasibility of the illustrated benchmarking strategies, an application focused on determining regional benchmarks for patient satisfaction (using 2009 Lombardy Region Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire) is proposed.

Issues to consider in the derivation of water quality benchmarks for the protection of aquatic life.

PubMed

Schneider, Uwe

2014-01-01

While water quality benchmarks for the protection of aquatic life have been in use in some jurisdictions for several decades (USA, Canada, several European countries), more and more countries are now setting up their own national water quality benchmark development programs. In doing so, they either adopt an existing method from another jurisdiction, update on an existing approach, or develop their own new derivation method. Each approach has its own advantages and disadvantages, and many issues have to be addressed when setting up a water quality benchmark development program or when deriving a water quality benchmark. Each of these tasks requires a special expertise. They may seem simple, but are complex in their details. The intention of this paper was to provide some guidance for this process of water quality benchmark development on the program level, for the derivation methodology development, and in the actual benchmark derivation step, as well as to point out some issues (notably the inclusion of adapted populations and cryptic species and points to consider in the use of the species sensitivity distribution approach) and future opportunities (an international data repository and international collaboration in water quality benchmark development).

Evaluation of control strategies using an oxidation ditch benchmark.

PubMed

Abusam, A; Keesman, K J; Spanjers, H; van, Straten G; Meinema, K

2002-01-01

This paper presents validation and implementation results of a benchmark developed for a specific full-scale oxidation ditch wastewater treatment plant. A benchmark is a standard simulation procedure that can be used as a tool in evaluating various control strategies proposed for wastewater treatment plants. It is based on model and performance criteria development. Testing of this benchmark, by comparing benchmark predictions to real measurements of the electrical energy consumptions and amounts of disposed sludge for a specific oxidation ditch WWTP, has shown that it can (reasonably) be used for evaluating the performance of this WWTP. Subsequently, the validated benchmark was then used in evaluating some basic and advanced control strategies. Some of the interesting results obtained are the following: (i) influent flow splitting ratio, between the first and the fourth aerated compartments of the ditch, has no significant effect on the TN concentrations in the effluent, and (ii) for evaluation of long-term control strategies, future benchmarks need to be able to assess settlers' performance.

Benchmarking methods and data sets for ligand enrichment assessment in virtual screening.

PubMed

Xia, Jie; Tilahun, Ermias Lemma; Reid, Terry-Elinor; Zhang, Liangren; Wang, Xiang Simon

2015-01-01

Retrospective small-scale virtual screening (VS) based on benchmarking data sets has been widely used to estimate ligand enrichments of VS approaches in the prospective (i.e. real-world) efforts. However, the intrinsic differences of benchmarking sets to the real screening chemical libraries can cause biased assessment. Herein, we summarize the history of benchmarking methods as well as data sets and highlight three main types of biases found in benchmarking sets, i.e. "analogue bias", "artificial enrichment" and "false negative". In addition, we introduce our recent algorithm to build maximum-unbiased benchmarking sets applicable to both ligand-based and structure-based VS approaches, and its implementations to three important human histone deacetylases (HDACs) isoforms, i.e. HDAC1, HDAC6 and HDAC8. The leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO CV) demonstrates that the benchmarking sets built by our algorithm are maximum-unbiased as measured by property matching, ROC curves and AUCs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking Methods and Data Sets for Ligand Enrichment Assessment in Virtual Screening

PubMed Central

Xia, Jie; Tilahun, Ermias Lemma; Reid, Terry-Elinor; Zhang, Liangren; Wang, Xiang Simon

2014-01-01

Retrospective small-scale virtual screening (VS) based on benchmarking data sets has been widely used to estimate ligand enrichments of VS approaches in the prospective (i.e. real-world) efforts. However, the intrinsic differences of benchmarking sets to the real screening chemical libraries can cause biased assessment. Herein, we summarize the history of benchmarking methods as well as data sets and highlight three main types of biases found in benchmarking sets, i.e. “analogue bias”, “artificial enrichment” and “false negative”. In addition, we introduced our recent algorithm to build maximum-unbiased benchmarking sets applicable to both ligand-based and structure-based VS approaches, and its implementations to three important human histone deacetylase (HDAC) isoforms, i.e. HDAC1, HDAC6 and HDAC8. The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO CV) demonstrates that the benchmarking sets built by our algorithm are maximum-unbiased in terms of property matching, ROC curves and AUCs. PMID:25481478

Assessment of Static Delamination Propagation Capabilities in Commercial Finite Element Codes Using Benchmark Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orifici, Adrian C.; Krueger, Ronald

2010-01-01

With capabilities for simulating delamination growth in composite materials becoming available, the need for benchmarking and assessing these capabilities is critical. In this study, benchmark analyses were performed to assess the delamination propagation simulation capabilities of the VCCT implementations in Marc TM and MD NastranTM. Benchmark delamination growth results for Double Cantilever Beam, Single Leg Bending and End Notched Flexure specimens were generated using a numerical approach. This numerical approach was developed previously, and involves comparing results from a series of analyses at different delamination lengths to a single analysis with automatic crack propagation. Specimens were analyzed with three-dimensional and two-dimensional models, and compared with previous analyses using Abaqus . The results demonstrated that the VCCT implementation in Marc TM and MD Nastran(TradeMark) was capable of accurately replicating the benchmark delamination growth results and that the use of the numerical benchmarks offers advantages over benchmarking using experimental and analytical results.

Can data-driven benchmarks be used to set the goals of healthy people 2010?

PubMed Central

Allison, J; Kiefe, C I; Weissman, N W

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Expert panels determined the public health goals of Healthy People 2000 subjectively. The present study examined whether data-driven benchmarks provide a better alternative. METHODS: We developed the "pared-mean" method to define from data the best achievable health care practices. We calculated the pared-mean benchmark for screening mammography from the 1994 National Health Interview Survey, using the metropolitan statistical area as the "provider" unit. Beginning with the best-performing provider and adding providers in descending sequence, we established the minimum provider subset that included at least 10% of all women surveyed on this question. The pared-mean benchmark is then the proportion of women in this subset who received mammography. RESULTS: The pared-mean benchmark for screening mammography was 71%, compared with the Healthy People 2000 goal of 60%. CONCLUSIONS: For Healthy People 2010, benchmarks derived from data reflecting the best available care provide viable alternatives to consensus-derived targets. We are currently pursuing additional refinements to the data-driven pared-mean benchmark approach. PMID:9987466

Benchmarking to improve the quality of cystic fibrosis care.

PubMed

Schechter, Michael S

2012-11-01

Benchmarking involves the ascertainment of healthcare programs with most favorable outcomes as a means to identify and spread effective strategies for delivery of care. The recent interest in the development of patient registries for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) has been fueled in part by an interest in using them to facilitate benchmarking. This review summarizes reports of how benchmarking has been operationalized in attempts to improve CF care. Although certain goals of benchmarking can be accomplished with an exclusive focus on registry data analysis, benchmarking programs in Germany and the United States have supplemented these data analyses with exploratory interactions and discussions to better understand successful approaches to care and encourage their spread throughout the care network. Benchmarking allows the discovery and facilitates the spread of effective approaches to care. It provides a pragmatic alternative to traditional research methods such as randomized controlled trials, providing insights into methods that optimize delivery of care and allowing judgments about the relative effectiveness of different therapeutic approaches.

47 CFR 27.1221 - Interference protection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... on height benchmarking, although the heights of antennas utilized are not restricted. (b) Height Benchmarking. Height benchmarking is defined for pairs of base stations, one in each of two proximate...

47 CFR 27.1221 - Interference protection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... on height benchmarking, although the heights of antennas utilized are not restricted. (b) Height benchmarking. Height benchmarking is defined for pairs of base stations, one in each of two proximate...

Summer 2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendoza, Paul Michael

2016-08-31

The project goals seek to develop applications in order to automate MCNP criticality benchmark execution; create a dataset containing static benchmark information; combine MCNP output with benchmark information; and fit and visually represent data.

Development and Testing of Neutron Cross Section Covariance Data for SCALE 6.2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marshall, William BJ J; Williams, Mark L; Wiarda, Dorothea

2015-01-01

Neutron cross-section covariance data are essential for many sensitivity/uncertainty and uncertainty quantification assessments performed both within the TSUNAMI suite and more broadly throughout the SCALE code system. The release of ENDF/B-VII.1 included a more complete set of neutron cross-section covariance data: these data form the basis for a new cross-section covariance library to be released in SCALE 6.2. A range of testing is conducted to investigate the properties of these covariance data and ensure that the data are reasonable. These tests include examination of the uncertainty in critical experiment benchmark model k eff values due to nuclear data uncertainties, asmore » well as similarity assessments of irradiated pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel with suites of critical experiments. The contents of the new covariance library, the testing performed, and the behavior of the new covariance data are described in this paper. The neutron cross-section covariances can be combined with a sensitivity data file generated using the TSUNAMI suite of codes within SCALE to determine the uncertainty in system k eff caused by nuclear data uncertainties. The Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) maintained at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contains over 400 critical experiment benchmark models, and sensitivity data are generated for each of these models. The nuclear data uncertainty in k eff is generated for each experiment, and the resulting uncertainties are tabulated and compared to the differences in measured and calculated results. The magnitude of the uncertainty for categories of nuclides (such as actinides, fission products, and structural materials) is calculated for irradiated PWR and BWR fuel to quantify the effect of covariance library changes between the SCALE 6.1 and 6.2 libraries. One of the primary applications of sensitivity/uncertainty methods within SCALE is the assessment of similarities between benchmark experiments and safety applications. This is described by a c k value for each experiment with each application. Several studies have analyzed typical c k values for a range of critical experiments compared with hypothetical irradiated fuel applications. The c k value is sensitive to the cross-section covariance data because the contribution of each nuclide is influenced by its uncertainty; large uncertainties indicate more likely bias sources and are thus given more weight. Changes in c k values resulting from different covariance data can be used to examine and assess underlying data changes. These comparisons are performed for PWR and BWR fuel in storage and transportation systems.« less

Maps showing predicted probabilities for selected dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese threshold events in depth zones used by the domestic and public drinking water supply wells, Central Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2018-01-31

The purpose of the prediction grids for selected redox constituents—dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese—are intended to provide an understanding of groundwater-quality conditions at the domestic and public-supply drinking water depths. The chemical quality of groundwater and the fate of many contaminants is influenced by redox processes in all aquifers, and understanding the redox conditions horizontally and vertically is critical in evaluating groundwater quality. The redox condition of groundwater—whether oxic (oxygen present) or anoxic (oxygen absent)—strongly influences the oxidation state of a chemical in groundwater. The anoxic dissolved oxygen thresholds of <0.5 milligram per liter (mg/L), <1.0 mg/L, and <2.0 mg/L were selected to apply broadly to regional groundwater-quality investigations. Although the presence of dissolved manganese in groundwater indicates strongly reducing (anoxic) groundwater conditions, it is also considered a “nuisance” constituent in drinking water, making drinking water undesirable with respect to taste, staining, or scaling. Three dissolved manganese thresholds, <50 micrograms per liter (µg/L), <150 µg/L, and <300 µg/L, were selected to create predicted probabilities of exceedances in depth zones used by domestic and public-supply water wells. The 50 µg/L event threshold represents the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) benchmark for manganese (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2017; California Division of Drinking Water, 2014), whereas the 300 µg/L event threshold represents the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) health-based screening level (HBSL) benchmark, used to put measured concentrations of drinking-water contaminants into a human-health context (Toccalino and others, 2014). The 150 µg/L event threshold represents one-half the USGS HBSL. The resultant dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese prediction grids may be of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions. Prediction grids for selected redox constituents and thresholds were created by the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) modeling and mapping team.

High-level ab initio potential energy surface and dynamics of the F– + CH3I SN2 and proton-transfer reactions† †Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Benchmark classical and adiabatic relative energies (Table S1), vibrational frequencies of all the stationary points (Tables S2 and S3), direct/indirect trajectory separation function parameters (Table S4), entrance-channel potential (Fig. S1), structures of the minima and saddle points corresponding to the abstraction channel (Fig. S2), reaction probabilities (Fig. S3), trajectory integration time distributions (Fig. S4), trajectory integration time vs. I– velocity distributions (Fig. S5), and mechanism-specific reaction probabilities (Fig. S6). See DOI: 10.1039/c7sc00033b Click here for additional data file.

PubMed Central

Olasz, Balázs; Szabó, István

2017-01-01

Bimolecular nucleophilic substitution (SN2) and proton transfer are fundamental processes in chemistry and F– + CH3I is an important prototype of these reactions. Here we develop the first full-dimensional ab initio analytical potential energy surface (PES) for the F– + CH3I system using a permutationally invariant fit of high-level composite energies obtained with the combination of the explicitly-correlated CCSD(T)-F12b method, the aug-cc-pVTZ basis, core electron correlation effects, and a relativistic effective core potential for iodine. The PES accurately describes the SN2 channel producing I– + CH3F via Walden-inversion, front-side attack, and double-inversion pathways as well as the proton-transfer channel leading to HF + CH2I–. The relative energies of the stationary points on the PES agree well with the new explicitly-correlated all-electron CCSD(T)-F12b/QZ-quality benchmark values. Quasiclassical trajectory computations on the PES show that the proton transfer becomes significant at high collision energies and double-inversion as well as front-side attack trajectories can occur. The computed broad angular distributions and hot internal energy distributions indicate the dominance of indirect mechanisms at lower collision energies, which is confirmed by analyzing the integration time and leaving group velocity distributions. Comparison with available crossed-beam experiments shows usually good agreement. PMID:28507692

Method and system for benchmarking computers

DOEpatents

Gustafson, John L.

1993-09-14

A testing system and method for benchmarking computer systems. The system includes a store containing a scalable set of tasks to be performed to produce a solution in ever-increasing degrees of resolution as a larger number of the tasks are performed. A timing and control module allots to each computer a fixed benchmarking interval in which to perform the stored tasks. Means are provided for determining, after completion of the benchmarking interval, the degree of progress through the scalable set of tasks and for producing a benchmarking rating relating to the degree of progress for each computer.

Performance Evaluation of Supercomputers using HPCC and IMB Benchmarks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saini, Subhash; Ciotti, Robert; Gunney, Brian T. N.; Spelce, Thomas E.; Koniges, Alice; Dossa, Don; Adamidis, Panagiotis; Rabenseifner, Rolf; Tiyyagura, Sunil R.; Mueller, Matthias;

Benchmarking Data Sets for the Evaluation of Virtual Ligand Screening Methods: Review and Perspectives.

PubMed

Lagarde, Nathalie; Zagury, Jean-François; Montes, Matthieu

2015-07-27

Virtual screening methods are commonly used nowadays in drug discovery processes. However, to ensure their reliability, they have to be carefully evaluated. The evaluation of these methods is often realized in a retrospective way, notably by studying the enrichment of benchmarking data sets. To this purpose, numerous benchmarking data sets were developed over the years, and the resulting improvements led to the availability of high quality benchmarking data sets. However, some points still have to be considered in the selection of the active compounds, decoys, and protein structures to obtain optimal benchmarking data sets.

Using Benchmarking To Influence Tuition and Fee Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hubbell, Loren W. Loomis; Massa, Robert J.; Lapovsky, Lucie

2002-01-01

Discusses the use of benchmarking in managing enrollment. Using a case study, illustrates how benchmarking can help administrators develop strategies for planning and implementing admissions and pricing practices. (EV)

15 CFR 806.16 - Rules and regulations for BE-10, Benchmark Survey of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad-2004.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., Benchmark Survey of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad-2004. 806.16 Section 806.16 Commerce and Foreign Trade... COMMERCE DIRECT INVESTMENT SURVEYS § 806.16 Rules and regulations for BE-10, Benchmark Survey of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad—2004. A BE-10, Benchmark Survey of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad will be...

FY 2002 Customer Satisfaction & Top 200 Users Survey Composite Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-11-01

Federal Government Benchmark 68.6% 71.1% DTIC Excels by +8.4 +11 *ACSI is the official service quality benchmark for the...care. § The American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), the official service quality benchmark for the Federal Government, is currently 71.1%; DTIC...ACSI is the official service quality benchmark for the Federal GovernmentFig 1FY 20020Comparison of Customer Satisfaction (Customer Care

Full Chain Benchmarking for Open Architecture Airborne ISR Systems: A Case Study for GMTI Radar Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-15

middleware implementations via a common object-oriented software hierarchy, with library -specific implementations of the five GMTI benchmark ...Full-Chain Benchmarking for Open Architecture Airborne ISR Systems A Case Study for GMTI Radar Applications Matthias Beebe, Matthew Alexander...time performance, effective benchmarks are necessary to ensure that an ARP system can meet the mission constraints and performance requirements of

A mechanism for proven technology foresight for emerging fast reactor designs and concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anuar, Nuraslinda, E-mail: nuraslinda@uniten.edu.my; Muhamad Pauzi, Anas, E-mail: anas@uniten.edu.my

The assessment of emerging nuclear fast reactor designs and concepts viability requires a combination of foresight methods. A mechanism that allows for the comparison and quantification of the possibility of being a proven technology in the future, β for the existing fast reactor designs and concepts is proposed as one of the quantitative foresight method. The methodology starts with the identification at the national or regional level, of the factors that would affect β. The factors are then categorized into several groups; economic, social and technology elements. Each of the elements is proposed to be mathematically modelled before all ofmore » the elemental models can be combined. Once the overall β model is obtained, the β{sub min} is determined to benchmark the acceptance as a candidate design or concept. The β values for all the available designs and concepts are then determined and compared with the β{sub min}, resulting in a list of candidate designs that possess the β value that is larger than the β{sub min}. The proposed methodology can also be applied to purposes other than technological foresight.« less

How to use sustainability indicators for tourism planning: the case of rural tourism in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Blancas, F J; Lozano-Oyola, M; González, M; Guerrero, F M; Caballero, R

2011-12-15

This paper proposes an indicators system to analyse the sustainability of tourist activity at rural destinations in countries with a consolidated tourism sector. The proposed system aims at providing tourist managers and policy-makers with information to better understand the transition to sustainability at specific destinations and to encourage them to carry out corresponding policy and management responses. To illustrate how indicators can be quantified, we create a practical guideline on how to use the statistical information available. Likewise, we suggest a method for obtaining sustainability indexes by aggregation that reduces the subjectivity associated with the composite indicator. This procedure is based on the combination of principal component analysis and distance to a reference point. Together with the definition of sustainable tourism indicators, we explain how to use these systems and sustainability indexes to fulfil three practical uses in tourism sector planning: the comparison and characterisation of destinations, the definition of benchmarking practices, and the quantification of sustainable tourism objectives. Each practical use is illustrated using the case of rural zones in a consolidated destination such as Andalusia. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The fractured landscape of RNA-seq alignment: the default in our STARs.

PubMed

Ballouz, Sara; Dobin, Alexander; Gingeras, Thomas R; Gillis, Jesse

2018-06-01

Many tools are available for RNA-seq alignment and expression quantification, with comparative value being hard to establish. Benchmarking assessments often highlight methods' good performance, but are focused on either model data or fail to explain variation in performance. This leaves us to ask, what is the most meaningful way to assess different alignment choices? And importantly, where is there room for progress? In this work, we explore the answers to these two questions by performing an exhaustive assessment of the STAR aligner. We assess STAR's performance across a range of alignment parameters using common metrics, and then on biologically focused tasks. We find technical metrics such as fraction mapping or expression profile correlation to be uninformative, capturing properties unlikely to have any role in biological discovery. Surprisingly, we find that changes in alignment parameters within a wide range have little impact on both technical and biological performance. Yet, when performance finally does break, it happens in difficult regions, such as X-Y paralogs and MHC genes. We believe improved reporting by developers will help establish where results are likely to be robust or fragile, providing a better baseline to establish where methodological progress can still occur.

A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators

DOE PAGES

Yankov, Artem; Collins, Benjamin; Klein, Markus; ...

2012-01-01

For the multiple sources of error introduced into the standard computational regime for simulating reactor cores, rigorous uncertainty analysis methods are available primarily to quantify the effects of cross section uncertainties. Two methods for propagating cross section uncertainties through core simulators are the XSUSA statistical approach and the “two-step” method. The XSUSA approach, which is based on the SUSA code package, is fundamentally a stochastic sampling method. Alternatively, the two-step method utilizes generalized perturbation theory in the first step and stochastic sampling in the second step. The consistency of these two methods in quantifying uncertainties in the multiplication factor andmore » in the core power distribution was examined in the framework of phase I-3 of the OECD Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling benchmark. With the Three Mile Island Unit 1 core as a base model for analysis, the XSUSA and two-step methods were applied with certain limitations, and the results were compared to those produced by other stochastic sampling-based codes. Based on the uncertainty analysis results, conclusions were drawn as to the method that is currently more viable for computing uncertainties in burnup and transient calculations.« less

Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadie, Luis Maria; Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa

2017-01-01

A quantification of present and future mean annual losses due to extreme coastal events can be crucial for adequate decision making on adaptation to climate change in coastal areas around the globe. However, this approach is limited when uncertainty needs to be accounted for. In this paper, we assess coastal flood risk from sea-level rise and extreme events in 120 major cities around the world using an alternative stochastic approach that accounts for uncertainty. Probability distributions of future relative (local) sea-level rise have been used for each city, under three IPPC emission scenarios, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The approach allows a continuous stochastic function to be built to assess yearly evolution of damages from 2030 to 2100. Additionally, we present two risk measures that put low-probability, high-damage events in the spotlight: the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES), which enable the damages to be estimated when a certain risk level is exceeded. This level of acceptable risk can be defined involving different stakeholders to guide progressive adaptation strategies. The method presented here is new in the field of economics of adaptation and offers a much broader picture of the challenges related to dealing with climate impacts. Furthermore, it can be applied to assess not only adaptation needs but also to put adaptation into a timeframe in each city.

A short course on measure and probability theories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pebay, Philippe Pierre

2004-02-01

This brief Introduction to Measure Theory, and its applications to Probabilities, corresponds to the lecture notes of a seminar series given at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, during the spring of 2003. The goal of these seminars was to provide a minimal background to Computational Combustion scientists interested in using more advanced stochastic concepts and methods, e.g., in the context of uncertainty quantification. Indeed, most mechanical engineering curricula do not provide students with formal training in the field of probability, and even in less in measure theory. However, stochastic methods have been used more and more extensively in the pastmore » decade, and have provided more successful computational tools. Scientists at the Combustion Research Facility of Sandia National Laboratories have been using computational stochastic methods for years. Addressing more and more complex applications, and facing difficult problems that arose in applications showed the need for a better understanding of theoretical foundations. This is why the seminar series was launched, and these notes summarize most of the concepts which have been discussed. The goal of the seminars was to bring a group of mechanical engineers and computational combustion scientists to a full understanding of N. WIENER'S polynomial chaos theory. Therefore, these lectures notes are built along those lines, and are not intended to be exhaustive. In particular, the author welcomes any comments or criticisms.« less

Effects of benchmarking on the quality of type 2 diabetes care: results of the OPTIMISE (Optimal Type 2 Diabetes Management Including Benchmarking and Standard Treatment) study in Greece

PubMed Central

Tsimihodimos, Vasilis; Kostapanos, Michael S.; Moulis, Alexandros; Nikas, Nikos; Elisaf, Moses S.

2015-01-01

Objectives: To investigate the effect of benchmarking on the quality of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) care in Greece. Methods: The OPTIMISE (Optimal Type 2 Diabetes Management Including Benchmarking and Standard Treatment) study [ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00681850] was an international multicenter, prospective cohort study. It included physicians randomized 3:1 to either receive benchmarking for glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) treatment targets (benchmarking group) or not (control group). The proportions of patients achieving the targets of the above-mentioned parameters were compared between groups after 12 months of treatment. Also, the proportions of patients achieving those targets at 12 months were compared with baseline in the benchmarking group. Results: In the Greek region, the OPTIMISE study included 797 adults with T2DM (570 in the benchmarking group). At month 12 the proportion of patients within the predefined targets for SBP and LDL-C was greater in the benchmarking compared with the control group (50.6 versus 35.8%, and 45.3 versus 36.1%, respectively). However, these differences were not statistically significant. No difference between groups was noted in the percentage of patients achieving the predefined target for HbA1c. At month 12 the increase in the percentage of patients achieving all three targets was greater in the benchmarking (5.9–15.0%) than in the control group (2.7–8.1%). In the benchmarking group more patients were on target regarding SBP (50.6% versus 29.8%), LDL-C (45.3% versus 31.3%) and HbA1c (63.8% versus 51.2%) at 12 months compared with baseline (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Conclusion: Benchmarking may comprise a promising tool for improving the quality of T2DM care. Nevertheless, target achievement rates of each, and of all three, quality indicators were suboptimal, indicating there are still unmet needs in the management of T2DM. PMID:26445642

SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacques, Diederik

2017-04-01

As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different environmental and geo-engineering applications. SeSBench will organize new workshops to add new benchmarks in a new special issue. Steefel, C. I., et al. (2015). "Reactive transport codes for subsurface environmental simulation." Computational Geosciences 19: 445-478.

SU-E-T-148: Benchmarks and Pre-Treatment Reviews: A Study of Quality Assurance Effectiveness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowenstein, J; Nguyen, H; Roll, J

Purpose: To determine the impact benchmarks and pre-treatment reviews have on improving the quality of submitted clinical trial data. Methods: Benchmarks are used to evaluate a site’s ability to develop a treatment that meets a specific protocol’s treatment guidelines prior to placing their first patient on the protocol. A pre-treatment review is an actual patient placed on the protocol in which the dosimetry and contour volumes are evaluated to be per protocol guidelines prior to allowing the beginning of the treatment. A key component of these QA mechanisms is that sites are provided timely feedback to educate them on howmore » to plan per the protocol and prevent protocol deviations on patients accrued to a protocol. For both benchmarks and pre-treatment reviews a dose volume analysis (DVA) was performed using MIM softwareTM. For pre-treatment reviews a volume contour evaluation was also performed. Results: IROC Houston performed a QA effectiveness analysis of a protocol which required both benchmarks and pre-treatment reviews. In 70 percent of the patient cases submitted, the benchmark played an effective role in assuring that the pre-treatment review of the cases met protocol requirements. The 35 percent of sites failing the benchmark subsequently modified there planning technique to pass the benchmark before being allowed to submit a patient for pre-treatment review. However, in 30 percent of the submitted cases the pre-treatment review failed where the majority (71 percent) failed the DVA. 20 percent of sites submitting patients failed to correct their dose volume discrepancies indicated by the benchmark case. Conclusion: Benchmark cases and pre-treatment reviews can be an effective QA tool to educate sites on protocol guidelines and to minimize deviations. Without the benchmark cases it is possible that 65 percent of the cases undergoing a pre-treatment review would have failed to meet the protocols requirements.Support: U24-CA-180803.« less

Suppression of anomalous synchronization and nonstationary behavior of neural network under small-world topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boaretto, B. R. R.; Budzinski, R. C.; Prado, T. L.; Kurths, J.; Lopes, S. R.

2018-05-01

It is known that neural networks under small-world topology can present anomalous synchronization and nonstationary behavior for weak coupling regimes. Here, we propose methods to suppress the anomalous synchronization and also to diminish the nonstationary behavior occurring in weakly coupled neural network under small-world topology. We consider a network of 2000 thermally sensitive identical neurons, based on the model of Hodgkin-Huxley in a small-world topology, with the probability of adding non local connection equal to p = 0 . 001. Based on experimental protocols to suppress anomalous synchronization, as well as nonstationary behavior of the neural network dynamics, we make use of (i) external stimulus (pulsed current); (ii) biologic parameters changing (neuron membrane conductance changes); and (iii) body temperature changes. Quantification analysis to evaluate phase synchronization makes use of the Kuramoto's order parameter, while recurrence quantification analysis, particularly the determinism, computed over the easily accessible mean field of network, the local field potential (LFP), is used to evaluate nonstationary states. We show that the methods proposed can control the anomalous synchronization and nonstationarity occurring for weak coupling parameter without any effect on the individual neuron dynamics, neither in the expected asymptotic synchronized states occurring for large values of the coupling parameter.

Measurement of gastric emptying by intragastric gamma scintigraphy.

PubMed

Malbert, C H; Mathis, C; Bobillier, E; Laplace, J P; Horowitz, M

1997-09-01

Gastric emptying is usually measured in animals and humans by dilution/sampling or external scintigraphy. These methods are either time consuming or require expensive equipment. The capacity of a miniature gamma counter positioned in the stomach to measure emptying of liquid and solid meals was evaluated. In eight conscious pigs fitted with gastric and duodenal cannulae, gastric emptying of saline (500 mL), dextrose (20%, 500 mL), porridge (300 g) and scrambled eggs (300 g), all labelled with 3.5 MBq 99mTC, was evaluated. When positioned in the antrum the probe was unable to quantify gastric emptying. In contrast, measurements of the fractional emptying of saline over 4-min periods by the probe positioned in the corpus and quantification of radioactivity in the duodenal effluent correlated closely (r = 0.88, P < 0.05). Gastric emptying (50% emptying time) of saline and both solid meals measured by the probe was not significantly different from quantification of the duodenal effluent volume. No difference was observed also for the dextrose meal but only while gastric acid secretion was suppressed by omeprazole. We conclude that an intragastric gamma counter permits measurement of gastric emptying of homogeneous meals provided meal stimulation of gastric secretion was not extensive. This was possible probably by monitoring emptying from the proximal stomach.

A framework for assessing the uncertainty in wave energy delivery to targeted subsurface formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karve, Pranav M.; Kallivokas, Loukas F.; Manuel, Lance

2016-02-01

Stress wave stimulation of geological formations has potential applications in petroleum engineering, hydro-geology, and environmental engineering. The stimulation can be applied using wave sources whose spatio-temporal characteristics are designed to focus the emitted wave energy into the target region. Typically, the design process involves numerical simulations of the underlying wave physics, and assumes a perfect knowledge of the material properties and the overall geometry of the geostructure. In practice, however, precise knowledge of the properties of the geological formations is elusive, and quantification of the reliability of a deterministic approach is crucial for evaluating the technical and economical feasibility of the design. In this article, we discuss a methodology that could be used to quantify the uncertainty in the wave energy delivery. We formulate the wave propagation problem for a two-dimensional, layered, isotropic, elastic solid truncated using hybrid perfectly-matched-layers (PMLs), and containing a target elastic or poroelastic inclusion. We define a wave motion metric to quantify the amount of the delivered wave energy. We, then, treat the material properties of the layers as random variables, and perform a first-order uncertainty analysis of the formation to compute the probabilities of failure to achieve threshold values of the motion metric. We illustrate the uncertainty quantification procedure using synthetic data.

Validation of Non-Invasive Tracer Kinetic Analysis of 18F-Florbetaben PET Using a Dual Time-Window Acquisition Protocol.

PubMed

Bullich, Santiago; Barthel, Henryk; Koglin, Norman; Becker, Georg A; De Santi, Susan; Jovalekic, Aleksandar; Stephens, Andrew W; Sabri, Osama

2017-11-24

Accurate amyloid PET quantification is necessary for monitoring amyloid-beta accumulation and response to therapy. Currently, most of the studies are analyzed using the static standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) approach because of its simplicity. However, this approach may be influenced by changes in cerebral blood flow (CBF) or radiotracer clearance. Full tracer kinetic models require arterial blood sampling and dynamic image acquisition. The objectives of this work were: (1) to validate a non-invasive kinetic modeling approach for 18 F-florbetaben PET using an acquisition protocol with the best compromise between quantification accuracy and simplicity and (2) to assess the impact of CBF changes and radiotracer clearance on SUVRs and non-invasive kinetic modeling data in 18 F-florbetaben PET. Methods: Data from twenty subjects (10 patients with probable Alzheimer's dementia/ 10 healthy volunteers) were used to compare the binding potential (BP ND ) obtained from the full kinetic analysis to the SUVR and to non-invasive tracer kinetic methods (simplified reference tissue model (SRTM), and multilinear reference tissue model 2 (MRTM2)). Different approaches using shortened or interrupted acquisitions were compared to the results of the full acquisition (0-140 min). Simulations were carried out to assess the effect of CBF and radiotracer clearance changes on SUVRs and non-invasive kinetic modeling outputs. Results: A 0-30 and 120-140 min dual time-window acquisition protocol using appropriate interpolation of the missing time points provided the best compromise between patient comfort and quantification accuracy. Excellent agreement was found between BP ND obtained using full and dual time-window (2TW) acquisition protocols (BP ND,2TW =0.01+ 1.00 BP ND,FULL , R2=0.97 (MRTM2); BP ND,2TW = 0.05+ 0.92·BP ND,FULL , R2=0.93 (SRTM)). Simulations showed a limited impact of CBF and radiotracer clearance changes on MRTM parameters and SUVRs. Conclusion: This study demonstrates accurate non-invasive kinetic modeling of 18 F-florbetaben PET data using a dual time-window acquisition protocol, thus providing a good compromise between quantification accuracy, scan duration and patient burden. The influence of CBF and radiotracer clearance changes on amyloid-beta load estimates was small. For most clinical research applications, the SUVR approach is appropriate. However, for longitudinal studies in which a maximum quantification accuracy is desired, this non-invasive dual time-window acquisition protocol and kinetic analysis is recommended. Copyright © 2017 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

SP2Bench: A SPARQL Performance Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Michael; Hornung, Thomas; Meier, Michael; Pinkel, Christoph; Lausen, Georg

A meaningful analysis and comparison of both existing storage schemes for RDF data and evaluation approaches for SPARQL queries necessitates a comprehensive and universal benchmark platform. We present SP2Bench, a publicly available, language-specific performance benchmark for the SPARQL query language. SP2Bench is settled in the DBLP scenario and comprises a data generator for creating arbitrarily large DBLP-like documents and a set of carefully designed benchmark queries. The generated documents mirror vital key characteristics and social-world distributions encountered in the original DBLP data set, while the queries implement meaningful requests on top of this data, covering a variety of SPARQL operator constellations and RDF access patterns. In this chapter, we discuss requirements and desiderata for SPARQL benchmarks and present the SP2Bench framework, including its data generator, benchmark queries and performance metrics.