benefit analysis modeling: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for benefit analysis modeling

Benefit-cost analysis framework for evaluating inter-city transit investment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

This report describes the development and application of a benefit/cost analysis (BCA) model to support the evaluation of investment decisions for intercity bus services. The model recognizes two principle types of intercity bus benefits: benefits th...
A Business Of Security: Applying An Economic Model To Human Trafficking In Oregon

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

presents policy analysis under a qualitative cost - benefit lens to assess economic model variables applied to state level policies. The conclusion is...modern slavery, sex trafficking, labor trafficking, Oregon, supply and demand, cost - benefit analysis 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 129 16. PRICE CODE 17...analyzing weaknesses and gaps. The thesis presents policy analysis under a qualitative cost - benefit lens to assess economic model variables applied to
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Implementing a Car-Sharing Model to the Navy’s Passenger Vehicle Fleet

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

and Public Policy iv THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK v COST - BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTING A CAR- SHARING MODEL TO THE NAVY’S PASSENGER...the public good. This CBA will be conducted using a federal government perspective and standing (whose costs and benefits will be counted) will be...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT COST - BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTING A CAR-SHARING
Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

PubMed

Rousson, Valentin; Zumbrunn, Thomas

2011-06-22

Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.
Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. Methods We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. Results We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. Conclusions We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application. PMID:21696604
Using the weighted area under the net benefit curve for decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Talluri, Rajesh; Shete, Sanjay

2016-07-18

Risk prediction models have been proposed for various diseases and are being improved as new predictors are identified. A major challenge is to determine whether the newly discovered predictors improve risk prediction. Decision curve analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the area under the curve and net reclassification index to evaluate the performance of prediction models in clinical scenarios. The decision curve computed using the net benefit can evaluate the predictive performance of risk models at a given or range of threshold probabilities. However, when the decision curves for 2 competing models cross in the range of interest, it is difficult to identify the best model as there is no readily available summary measure for evaluating the predictive performance. The key deterrent for using simple measures such as the area under the net benefit curve is the assumption that the threshold probabilities are uniformly distributed among patients. We propose a novel measure for performing decision curve analysis. The approach estimates the distribution of threshold probabilities without the need of additional data. Using the estimated distribution of threshold probabilities, the weighted area under the net benefit curve serves as the summary measure to compare risk prediction models in a range of interest. We compared 3 different approaches, the standard method, the area under the net benefit curve, and the weighted area under the net benefit curve. Type 1 error and power comparisons demonstrate that the weighted area under the net benefit curve has higher power compared to the other methods. Several simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the improvement in model comparison using the weighted area under the net benefit curve compared to the standard method. The proposed measure improves decision curve analysis by using the weighted area under the curve and thereby improves the power of the decision curve analysis to compare risk prediction models in a clinical scenario.
VALUING BENEFITS FROM WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS USING KUHN TUCKER MODEL - A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON UTILITY FUNCTIONAL FORMS-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okuyama, Tadahiro

Kuhn-Tucker model, which has studied in recent years, is a benefit valuation technique using the revealed-preference data, and the feature is to treatvarious patterns of corner solutions flexibly. It is widely known for the benefit calculation using the revealed-preference data that a value of a benefit changes depending on a functional form. However, there are little studies which examine relationship between utility functions and values of benefits in Kuhn-Tucker model. The purpose of this study is to analysis an influence of the functional form to the value of a benefit. Six types of utility functions are employed for benefit calculations. The data of the recreational activity of 26 beaches of Miyagi Prefecture were employed. Calculation results indicated that Phaneuf and Siderelis (2003) and Whitehead et al.(2010)'s functional forms are useful for benefit calculations.
Comparative cost-benefit analysis of tele-homecare for community-dwelling elderly in Japan: Non-Government versus Government Supported Funding Models.

PubMed

Akiyama, Miki; Abraham, Chon

2017-08-01

Tele-homecare is gaining prominence as a viable care alternative, as evidenced by the increase in financial support from international governments to fund initiatives in their respective countries. The primary reason for the funding is to support efforts to reduce lags and increase capacity in access to care as well as to promote preventive measures that can avert costly emergent issues from arising. These efforts are especially important to super-aged and aging societies such as in Japan, many European countries, and the United States (US). However, to date and to our knowledge, a direct comparison of non-government vs. government-supported funding models for tele-homecare is particularly lacking in Japan. The aim of this study is to compare these operational models (i.e., non-government vs. government-supported funding) from a cost-benefit perspective. This simulation study applies to a Japanese hypothetical cohort with implications for other super-aged and aging societies abroad. We performed a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) on two operational models for enabling tele-homecare for elderly community-dwelling cohorts based on a decision tree model, which we created with parameters from published literature. The two models examined are (a) Model 1-non-government-supported funding that includes monthly fixed charges paid by users for a portion of the operating costs, and (b) Model 2-government-supported funding that includes startup and installation costs only (i.e., no operating costs) and no monthly user charges. We performed base case cost-benefit analysis and probabilistic cost-benefit analysis with a Monte Carlo simulation. We calculated net benefit and benefit-to-cost ratios (BCRs) from the societal perspective with a five-year time horizon applying a 3% discount rate for both cost and benefit values. The cost of tele-homecare included (a) the startup system expense, averaged over a five-year depreciation period, and (b) operation expenses (i.e., labor and non-labor) per user per year. The benefit of tele-homecare was measured by annual willingness to pay (WTP) for tele-homecare by a user and medical expenditures avoided. Both costs and benefits were inflated using the relevant Japanese consumer price index (CPI) and converted into 2015 US dollars with purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted. Base case net benefits of Model 1 and Model 2 were $417.00 and $97.30, respectively. Base case BCR of Model 1 tele-homecare was 1.63, while Model 2 was 1.03. The probabilistic analysis estimated mean (95%CI) for BCRs of Model 1 and Model 2 was 1.84 (1.89, 1.88) and 1.46 (1.43, 1.49), respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed robustness of Model 1 in 7 parameters but Model 2 was sensitive in all key parameters such as initial system cost, device cost, number of users, and medical expenditure saved. Break-even analysis showed that the system cost of Model 2 had to be under $187,500. Our results for each model collectively showed that tele-homecare in Japan is cost-saving to some extent. However, the government-funded model (i.e., Model 2), which typically requires use of all startup funding to be spent within the first year on system costs, was inferior to the monthly fee model (i.e., Model 1) that did not use the government funding for installation or continued operations, but rather incorporated a monthly fee from users to support the receipt of services via tele-homecare. While the benefits of Model 1 outweighed the benefits of Model 2, the government-subsidized method employed in Model 2 could be more beneficial in general if some explicit prequalifying estimated metrics are instituted prior to funding. Thus, governments need to require applicants requesting funding to note, at a minimum, (a) estimated costs, (b) the expected number of tele-homecare users, and expected benefits such as (c) WTP by the user, or (d) medical expenditure saved by tele-homecare as a means of financing some of the operational costs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Benefit finding in response to general life stress: measurement and correlates

PubMed Central

Cassidy, Tony; McLaughlin, Marian; Giles, Melanie

2014-01-01

Benefit finding herein defined as “the process of deriving positive growth from adversity” has become a key construct in the evolution of positive psychology, and research suggests that it may provide the basis for a resource model of stress and coping. However, measures of benefit finding have tended to be domain specific. The current study focused on developing a more generic multidimensional measure of benefit finding. A measure of benefit finding was developed and tested in 855 students (574 females and 281 males) aged between 18 and 40 years. A 28-item scale with six dimensions was produced and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) confirmed the scale structure. The model proposed that psychological and social resources would mediate the relationship between experienced stressors and benefit finding. Structural equation modelling with Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) shows that the model is a good fit for the data and psychological and social resources partially mediated the relationship. It is argued that psychological and social resources enable benefit finding in relation to life stress and provide a focus for the development of preventive interventions to improve positive health. PMID:25750781
The Population Benefit of Radiotherapy for Malignant Brain Tumors: Local Control and Survival Estimates for Guideline-Based Use.

PubMed

Hanna, Timothy Paul; Delaney, Geoffrey Paul; Barton, Michael Bernard

2016-09-01

To estimate the population benefit of radiotherapy (RT) for primary malignant brain tumors if evidence-based guidelines were routinely followed. This study investigated 5-year local control (LC) and 2- and 5-year overall survival (OS) benefits. RT benefit was the absolute proportional benefit of RT alone over no RT for radical indications, and over surgery alone for adjuvant indications. Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) benefit was the absolute incremental benefit of concurrent chemotherapy and RT over RT alone. Decision tree models were adapted to define the incidence of each indication. Citation databases were systematically queried for the highest level of evidence defining indication benefits. Meta-analysis was performed if there were multiple sources of the same evidence level, and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was also performed. Among all patients with malignant brain tumors, 82% had indications for curative- or adjuvant-intent RT. The magnitude of benefit was based on level I or II evidence in 44% of all patients. A total of 25 relevant studies were used to quantify indication benefits. All RT benefit included in the model was irreplaceable. For malignant brain tumors, the estimated population benefit for RT alone was 9% for 5-year LC (95% CI, 7%-10%), 9% for 2-year OS (95% CI, 8%-11%), and 5% for 5-year OS (95% CI, 4%-5%). The incremental benefit of CRT was 1% for 5-year LC (95% CI, 0%-2%), 7% for 2-year OS (95% CI, 4%-11%), and 3% for 5-year OS (95% CI, 1%-5%). The model was robust in sensitivity analysis. When optimally used, RT provides an important benefit for many patients with malignant brain tumors. The model provided a robust means for estimating the magnitude of this benefit. Copyright © 2016 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.
A Benefit Cost Analysis of the Abecedarian Early Childhood Intervention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masse, Leonard N.; Barnett, W. Steven

Although the benefits to academic achievement and cognitive development experienced by children participating in the Carolina Abecedarian Project have been well documented, there is little information available on the cost effectiveness of programs based on the Abecedarian preschool model. This study involved a benefit-cost analysis of the…
The population benefit of evidence-based radiotherapy: 5-Year local control and overall survival benefits.

PubMed

Hanna, T P; Shafiq, J; Delaney, G P; Vinod, S K; Thompson, S R; Barton, M B

2018-02-01

To describe the population benefit of radiotherapy in a high-income setting if evidence-based guidelines were routinely followed. Australian decision tree models were utilized. Radiotherapy alone (RT) benefit was defined as the absolute proportional benefit of radiotherapy compared with no treatment for radical indications, and of radiotherapy over surgery alone for adjuvant indications. Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) benefit was the absolute incremental benefit of concurrent chemoradiotherapy over RT. Five-year local control (LC) and overall survival (OS) benefits were measured. Citation databases were systematically queried for benefit data. Meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed. 48% of all cancer patients have indications for radiotherapy, 34% curative and 14% palliative. RT provides 5-year LC benefit in 10.4% of all cancer patients (95% Confidence Interval 9.3, 11.8) and 5-year OS benefit in 2.4% (2.1, 2.7). CRT provides 5-year LC benefit in an additional 0.6% of all cancer patients (0.5, 0.6), and 5-year OS benefit for an additional 0.3% (0.2, 0.4). RT benefit was greatest for head and neck (LC 32%, OS 16%), and cervix (LC 33%, OS 18%). CRT LC benefit was greatest for rectum (6%) and OS for cervix (3%) and brain (3%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed a robust model. Radiotherapy provides significant 5-year LC and OS benefits as part of evidence-based cancer care. CRT provides modest additional benefits. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Braking Analysis For Collision Avoidance-- Autonomous Braking System Performance Modeling And Benefits Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-05-24

THIS REPORT IS AN ANALYSIS OF THE BENEFITS OF A COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM IN REDUCING REAR-END CRASHES. THE COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM CONSIDERED IN THIS STUDY UTILIZES THE SIGNAL FROM A FORWARD LOOKING SENSOR TO ACTIVATE THE TRACTION CONTROL VALVE ...
Evidence-based economic analysis demonstrates that ecosystem service benefits of water hyacinth management greatly exceed research and control costs

PubMed Central

Harms, Nathan E.; Magen, Cedric; Liang, Dong; Nesslage, Genevieve M.; McMurray, Anna M.; Cofrancesco, Al F.

2018-01-01

Invasive species management can be a victim of its own success when decades of effective control cause memories of past harm to fade and raise questions of whether programs should continue. Economic analysis can be used to assess the efficiency of investing in invasive species control by comparing ecosystem service benefits to program costs, but only if appropriate data exist. We used a case study of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms), a nuisance floating aquatic plant, in Louisiana to demonstrate how comprehensive record-keeping supports economic analysis. Using long-term data sets, we developed empirical and spatio-temporal simulation models of intermediate complexity to project invasive species growth for control and no-control scenarios. For Louisiana, we estimated that peak plant cover would be 76% higher without the substantial growth rate suppression (84% reduction) that appeared due primarily to biological control agents. Our economic analysis revealed that combined biological and herbicide control programs, monitored over an unusually long time period (1975–2013), generated a benefit-cost ratio of about 34:1 derived from the relatively modest costs of $124 million ($2013) compared to the $4.2 billion ($2013) in benefits to anglers, waterfowl hunters, boating-dependent businesses, and water treatment facilities over the 38-year analysis period. This work adds to the literature by: (1) providing evidence of the effectiveness of water hyacinth biological control; (2) demonstrating use of parsimonious spatio-temporal models to estimate benefits of invasive species control; and (3) incorporating activity substitution into economic benefit transfer to avoid overstating benefits. Our study suggests that robust and cost-effective economic analysis is enabled by good record keeping and generalizable models that can demonstrate management effectiveness and promote social efficiency of invasive species control. PMID:29844976
Evidence-based economic analysis demonstrates that ecosystem service benefits of water hyacinth management greatly exceed research and control costs.

PubMed

Wainger, Lisa A; Harms, Nathan E; Magen, Cedric; Liang, Dong; Nesslage, Genevieve M; McMurray, Anna M; Cofrancesco, Al F

2018-01-01

Invasive species management can be a victim of its own success when decades of effective control cause memories of past harm to fade and raise questions of whether programs should continue. Economic analysis can be used to assess the efficiency of investing in invasive species control by comparing ecosystem service benefits to program costs, but only if appropriate data exist. We used a case study of water hyacinth ( Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms), a nuisance floating aquatic plant, in Louisiana to demonstrate how comprehensive record-keeping supports economic analysis. Using long-term data sets, we developed empirical and spatio-temporal simulation models of intermediate complexity to project invasive species growth for control and no-control scenarios. For Louisiana, we estimated that peak plant cover would be 76% higher without the substantial growth rate suppression (84% reduction) that appeared due primarily to biological control agents. Our economic analysis revealed that combined biological and herbicide control programs, monitored over an unusually long time period (1975-2013), generated a benefit-cost ratio of about 34:1 derived from the relatively modest costs of $124 million ($2013) compared to the $4.2 billion ($2013) in benefits to anglers, waterfowl hunters, boating-dependent businesses, and water treatment facilities over the 38-year analysis period. This work adds to the literature by: (1) providing evidence of the effectiveness of water hyacinth biological control; (2) demonstrating use of parsimonious spatio-temporal models to estimate benefits of invasive species control; and (3) incorporating activity substitution into economic benefit transfer to avoid overstating benefits. Our study suggests that robust and cost-effective economic analysis is enabled by good record keeping and generalizable models that can demonstrate management effectiveness and promote social efficiency of invasive species control.
Analysis of economic benefit of wind power based on system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Weibo; Han, Yaru; Niu, Dongxiao

2018-04-01

The scale of renewable power generation, such as wind power, has increased gradually in recent years. Considering that the economic benefits of wind farms are affected by many dynamic factors. The dynamic simulation model of wind power economic benefit system is established based on the system dynamics method. By comparing the economic benefits of wind farms under different setting scenarios through this model, the impact of different factors on the economic benefits of wind farms can be reflected.
A cost-benefit analysis of The National Map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsing, David L.; Theissen, Kevin; Bernknopf, Richard

2003-01-01

The Geography Discipline of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted this cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of The National Map. This analysis is an evaluation of the proposed Geography Discipline initiative to provide the Nation with a mechanism to access current and consistent digital geospatial data. This CBA is a supporting document to accompany the Exhibit 300 Capital Asset Plan and Business Case of The National Map Reengineering Program. The framework for estimating the benefits is based on expected improvements in processing information to perform any of the possible applications of spatial data. This analysis does not attempt to determine the benefits and costs of performing geospatial-data applications. Rather, it estimates the change in the differences between those benefits and costs with The National Map and the current situation without it. The estimates of total costs and benefits of The National Map were based on the projected implementation time, development and maintenance costs, rates of data inclusion and integration, expected usage levels over time, and a benefits estimation model. The National Map provides data that are current, integrated, consistent, complete, and more accessible in order to decrease the cost of implementing spatial-data applications and (or) improve the outcome of those applications. The efficiency gains in per-application improvements are greater than the cost to develop and maintain The National Map, meaning that the program would bring a positive net benefit to the Nation. The average improvement in the net benefit of performing a spatial data application was multiplied by a simulated number of application implementations across the country. The numbers of users, existing applications, and rates of application implementation increase over time as The National Map is developed and accessed by spatial data users around the country. Results from the 'most likely' estimates of model parameters and data inputs indicate that, over its 30-year projected lifespan, The National Map will bring a net present value (NPV) of benefits of $2.05 billion in 2001 dollars. The average time until the initial investments (the break-even period) are recovered is 14 years. Table ES-1 shows a running total of NPV in each year of the simulation model. In year 14, The National Map first shows a positive NPV, and so the table is highlighted in gray after that point. Figure ES-1 is a graph of the total benefit and total cost curves of a single model run over time. The curves cross in year 14, when the project breaks even. A sensitivity analysis of the input variables illustrated that these results of the NPV of The National Map are quite robust. Figure ES-2 plots the mean NPV results from 60 different scenarios, each consisting of fifty 30-year runs. The error bars represent a two-standard-deviation range around each mean. The analysis that follows contains the details of the cost-benefit analysis, the framework for evaluating economic benefits, a computational simulation tool, and a sensitivity analysis of model variables and values.
75 FR 8338 - EPA Science Advisory Board Staff Office Notification of a Meeting of the Ecological Effects...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-24

... the Second Section 812 Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Clean Air Act. The assessment of ecological... Analysis of the benefits and costs of the Clean Air Act. DATES: The EES augmented with additional experts... ecological effects of modeled air quality scenarios developed to support the Second Section 812 Benefit-Cost...
75 FR 4070 - Science Advisory Board Staff Office; Notification of a Public Meeting of the Air Quality Modeling...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-26

... Prospective Analysis of the benefits and costs of the Clean Air Act. DATES: The meeting date is Friday... support the Second Prospective Section 812 Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Clean Air Act. The Council was... studies to assess benefits and costs of the EPA's regulatory actions under the Clean Air Act. The Council...
The multifactorial role of the 3Rs in shifting the harm-benefit analysis in animal models of disease.

PubMed

Graham, Melanie L; Prescott, Mark J

2015-07-15

Ethics on animal use in science in Western society is based on utilitarianism, weighing the harms and benefits to the animals involved against those of the intended human beneficiaries. The 3Rs concept (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) is both a robust framework for minimizing animal use and suffering (addressing the harms to animals) and a means of supporting high quality science and translation (addressing the benefits). The ambiguity of basic research performed early in the research continuum can sometimes make harm-benefit analysis more difficult since anticipated benefit is often an incremental contribution to a field of knowledge. On the other hand, benefit is much more evident in translational research aimed at developing treatments for direct application in humans or animals suffering from disease. Though benefit may be easier to define, it should certainly not be considered automatic. Issues related to model validity seriously compromise experiments and have been implicated as a major impediment in translation, especially in complex disease models where harms to animals can be intensified. Increased investment and activity in the 3Rs is delivering new research models, tools and approaches with reduced reliance on animal use, improved animal welfare, and improved scientific and predictive value. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The multifactorial role of the 3Rs in shifting the harm-benefit analysis in animal models of disease

PubMed Central

Graham, Melanie L.; Prescott, Mark J.

2015-01-01

Ethics on animal use in science in Western society is based on utilitarianism, weighing the harms and benefits to the animals involved against those of the intended human beneficiaries. The 3Rs concept (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) is both a robust framework for minimizing animal use and suffering (addressing the harms to animals) and a means of supporting high quality science and translation (addressing the benefits). The ambiguity of basic research performed early in the research continuum can sometimes make harm-benefit analysis more difficult since anticipated benefit is often an incremental contribution to a field of knowledge. On the other hand, benefit is much more evident in translational research aimed at developing treatments for direct application in humans or animals suffering from disease. Though benefit may be easier to define, it should certainly not be considered automatic. Issues related to model validity seriously compromise experiments and have been implicated as a major impediment in translation, especially in complex disease models where harms to animals can be intensified. Increased investment and activity in the 3Rs is delivering new research models, tools and approaches with reduced reliance on animal use, improved animal welfare, and improved scientific and predictive value. PMID:25823812
Benefit, risk and cost of new oral anticoagulants and warfarin in atrial fibrillation; A multicriteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Mendoza-Sanchez, Jose; Silva, Federico; Rangel, Lady; Jaramillo, Linda; Mendoza, Leidy; Garzon, Jenny; Quiroga, Andrea

2018-01-01

Warfarin and new oral anticoagulants are effective in reducing stroke in atrial fibrillation; however, the benefits and risks rates in clinical trials show heterogeneity for each anticoagulant, and is unknown the cost influence on a model considering most of the treatment consequences. We designed a benefit-risk and cost assessment of oral anticoagulants. We followed the roadmap proposed by IMI-PROTECT and the considerations of emerged good practice to perform Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The roadmap defines the following steps: (1) planning, (2) evidence gathering and data preparation, (3) analyses, (4) explorations, and (5) conclusions. We defined two reference points (0-100) to allocate numerical values for scores and weights, and used an analogue numeric scale to assess physicians' preferences. As benefits of the anticoagulant therapy, we included reductions in stroke and all-cause mortality; intracranial haemorrhage, gastrointestinal haemorrhage, minor bleeding and myocardial infarction were considered risks. We also made an estimation of the annual drug cost per person. The scores were: Apixaban 33, Dabigatrán 25, warfarin 18 and Rivaroxaban 14 this score reveals the most preferred up to the less preferred option, considering the benefit-risk ratio and drug costs altogether. The relative model weights were: 51.1% for risks, 40.4% for benefits and 8.5% for cost. The sensitivity analysis confirms the model robustness. From this analysis, apixaban should be considered as the preferred anticoagulant option -due to a better benefit-risk balance and a minor cost influence- followed by dabigatran, warfarin and rivaroxaban.
The Generalized Roy Model and the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Social Programs.

PubMed

Eisenhauer, Philipp; Heckman, James J; Vytlacil, Edward

2015-04-01

The literature on treatment effects focuses on gross benefits from program participation. We extend this literature by developing conditions under which it is possible to identify parameters measuring the cost and net surplus from program participation. Using the generalized Roy model, we nonparametrically identify the cost, benefit, and net surplus of selection into treatment without requiring the analyst to have direct information on the cost. We apply our methodology to estimate the gross benefit and net surplus of attending college.
The Generalized Roy Model and the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Social Programs*

PubMed Central

Eisenhauer, Philipp; Heckman, James J.; Vytlacil, Edward

2015-01-01

The literature on treatment effects focuses on gross benefits from program participation. We extend this literature by developing conditions under which it is possible to identify parameters measuring the cost and net surplus from program participation. Using the generalized Roy model, we nonparametrically identify the cost, benefit, and net surplus of selection into treatment without requiring the analyst to have direct information on the cost. We apply our methodology to estimate the gross benefit and net surplus of attending college. PMID:26709315
Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Elkin, Elena B

2006-01-01

Diagnostic and prognostic models are typically evaluated with measures of accuracy that do not address clinical consequences. Decision-analytic techniques allow assessment of clinical outcomes but often require collection of additional information and may be cumbersome to apply to models that yield a continuous result. The authors sought a method for evaluating and comparing prediction models that incorporates clinical consequences,requires only the data set on which the models are tested,and can be applied to models that have either continuous or dichotomous results. The authors describe decision curve analysis, a simple, novel method of evaluating predictive models. They start by assuming that the threshold probability of a disease or event at which a patient would opt for treatment is informative of how the patient weighs the relative harms of a false-positive and a false-negative prediction. This theoretical relationship is then used to derive the net benefit of the model across different threshold probabilities. Plotting net benefit against threshold probability yields the "decision curve." The authors apply the method to models for the prediction of seminal vesicle invasion in prostate cancer patients. Decision curve analysis identified the range of threshold probabilities in which a model was of value, the magnitude of benefit, and which of several models was optimal. Decision curve analysis is a suitable method for evaluating alternative diagnostic and prognostic strategies that has advantages over other commonly used measures and techniques.
The Research on the Factors of Purchase Intention for Fresh Agricultural Products in an E-Commerce Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Dan; Mu, Jing

2017-12-01

Based on the characteristics of e-commerce of fresh agricultural products in China, and using the correlation analysis method, the relational model between product knowledge, perceived benefit, perceived risk and purchase intention is constructed. The Logistic model is used to carry in the empirical analysis. The influence factors and the mechanism of online purchase intention are explored. The results show that consumers’ product knowledge, perceived benefit and perceived risk can affect their purchase intention. Consumers’ product knowledge has a positive effect on perceived benefit and perceived benefit has a positive effect on purchase intention. Consumers’ product knowledge has a negative effect on perceived risk, and perceived profit has a negative effect on perceived risk, and perceived risk has a negative effect on purchase intention. Through the empirical analysis, some feasible suggestions for the government and electricity supplier enterprises can be provided.
A Cost-Effectiveness/Benefit Analysis Model for Postsecondary Vocational Programs. Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Jin Eun

A cost-effectiveness/benefit analysis is defined as a technique for measuring the outputs of existing and new programs in relation to their specified program objectives, against the costs of those programs. In terms of its specific use, the technique is conceptualized as a systems analysis method, an evaluation method, and a planning tool for…
Multilevel selection analysis of a microbial social trait

PubMed Central

de Vargas Roditi, Laura; Boyle, Kerry E; Xavier, Joao B

2013-01-01

The study of microbial communities often leads to arguments for the evolution of cooperation due to group benefits. However, multilevel selection models caution against the uncritical assumption that group benefits will lead to the evolution of cooperation. We analyze a microbial social trait to precisely define the conditions favoring cooperation. We combine the multilevel partition of the Price equation with a laboratory model system: swarming in Pseudomonas aeruginosa. We parameterize a population dynamics model using competition experiments where we manipulate expression, and therefore the cost-to-benefit ratio of swarming cooperation. Our analysis shows that multilevel selection can favor costly swarming cooperation because it causes population expansion. However, due to high costs and diminishing returns constitutive cooperation can only be favored by natural selection when relatedness is high. Regulated expression of cooperative genes is a more robust strategy because it provides the benefits of swarming expansion without the high cost or the diminishing returns. Our analysis supports the key prediction that strong group selection does not necessarily mean that microbial cooperation will always emerge. PMID:23959025
Terminal Area Productivity Airport Wind Analysis and Chicago O'Hare Model Description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemm, Robert; Shapiro, Gerald

1998-01-01

This paper describes two results from a continuing effort to provide accurate cost-benefit analyses of the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program technologies. Previous tasks have developed airport capacity and delay models and completed preliminary cost benefit estimates for TAP technologies at 10 U.S. airports. This task covers two improvements to the capacity and delay models. The first improvement is the completion of a detailed model set for the Chicago O'Hare (ORD) airport. Previous analyses used a more general model to estimate the benefits for ORD. This paper contains a description of the model details with results corresponding to current conditions. The second improvement is the development of specific wind speed and direction criteria for use in the delay models to predict when the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) will allow use of reduced landing separations. This paper includes a description of the criteria and an estimate of AVOSS utility for 10 airports based on analysis of 35 years of weather data.
A cost-benefit analysis of landfill mining and material recycling in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chuanbin, E-mail: cbzhou@rcees.ac.cn; Gong, Zhe; Hu, Junsong

Highlights: • Assessing the economic feasibility of landfill mining. • We applied a cost-benefit analysis model for landfill mining. • Four material cycling and energy recovery scenarios were designed. • We used net present value to evaluate the cost-benefit efficiency. - Abstract: Landfill mining is an environmentally-friendly technology that combines the concepts of material recycling and sustainable waste management, and it has received a great deal of worldwide attention because of its significant environmental and economic potential in material recycling, energy recovery, land reclamation and pollution prevention. This work applied a cost-benefit analysis model for assessing the economic feasibility, whichmore » is important for promoting landfill mining. The model includes eight indicators of costs and nine indicators of benefits. Four landfill mining scenarios were designed and analyzed based on field data. The economic feasibility of landfill mining was then evaluated by the indicator of net present value (NPV). According to our case study of a typical old landfill mining project in China (Yingchun landfill), rental of excavation and hauling equipment, waste processing and material transportation were the top three costs of landfill mining, accounting for 88.2% of the total cost, and the average cost per unit of stored waste was 12.7 USD ton{sup −1}. The top three benefits of landfill mining were electricity generation by incineration, land reclamation and recycling soil-like materials. The NPV analysis of the four different scenarios indicated that the Yingchun landfill mining project could obtain a net positive benefit varying from 1.92 million USD to 16.63 million USD. However, the NPV was sensitive to the mode of land reuse, the availability of energy recovery facilities and the possibility of obtaining financial support by avoiding post-closure care.« less
An Excel Spreadsheet Model for States and Districts to Assess the Cost-Benefit of School Nursing Services.

PubMed

Wang, Li Yan; O'Brien, Mary Jane; Maughan, Erin D

2016-11-01

This paper describes a user-friendly, Excel spreadsheet model and two data collection instruments constructed by the authors to help states and districts perform cost-benefit analyses of school nursing services delivered by full-time school nurses. Prior to applying the model, states or districts need to collect data using two forms: "Daily Nurse Data Collection Form" and the "Teacher Survey." The former is used to record daily nursing activities, including number of student health encounters, number of medications administered, number of student early dismissals, and number of medical procedures performed. The latter is used to obtain estimates for the time teachers spend addressing student health issues. Once inputs are entered in the model, outputs are automatically calculated, including program costs, total benefits, net benefits, and benefit-cost ratio. The spreadsheet model, data collection tools, and instructions are available at the NASN website ( http://www.nasn.org/The/CostBenefitAnalysis ).
Career Benefits Associated with Mentoring for Mentors: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ghosh, Rajashi; Reio, Thomas G., Jr.

2013-01-01

Mentoring has been studied extensively as it is linked to protege career development and growth. Recent mentoring research is beginning to acknowledge however that mentors also can accrue substantial benefits from mentoring. A meta-analysis was conducted where the provision of career, psychosocial and role modeling mentoring support were…
Benefit Sharing in a Global Context: Working Towards Solutions for Implementation.

PubMed

Hurst, Daniel J

2017-08-01

Due to the state of globalized clinical research, questions have been raised as to what, if any, benefits those who contribute to research should receive. One model for compensating research participants is "benefit sharing," and the basic premise is that, as a matter of justice, those who contribute to scientific research should share in its benefits. While incorporated into several international documents for over two decades, benefit sharing has only been sparsely implemented. This analysis begins by addressing the concept of benefit sharing, its historical development, and how it has been applied in the context of virus sharing for influenza research. The second portion of this analysis presents recommendations for ensuring benefit sharing. These recommendations are threefold: 1) an emphasis on social pressure, 2) the revision of international documents as means to ensure benefit sharing, and 3) greater collaboration between sponsor IRB and host country IRB. Because clinical research is a globalized industry, a global model will be proposed in the second that focuses on collaboration between the sponsor and host country. This collaboration is vital in order to ensure that proper forms of benefit sharing are accomplished as a matter of justice. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

PubMed

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Modelling consequences of change in biodiversity and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter offers an assessment of the rapidly changing landscape of methods assessing and forecasting the benefits that people receive from nature and how these benefits are shaped by institutions and various anthropogenic assets. There has been an explosion of activity in understanding and modeling the benefits that people receive from nature, and this explosion has provided a diversity of approaches that are both complementary and contradictory. However, there remain major gaps in what current models can do. They are not well suited to estimate most types of benefits at national, regional, or global scales. they are focused on decision analysis, but have not focused on implementation, learning, or dialogue. This hap in particular means that current models are not well suited to bridging among multiple knowledge systems, however, there are initial efforts made towards this goal. Furthermore, while participatory social-ecological scenarios are able to bridge multiple knowledge systems in their assessment and analysis of multiple ecosystem series, the social-ecological scenarios community is fragmented and not well connected. Consequently, IPBES has an excellent knowledge base to build upon, but a real investment in building a more integrated modeling and scenarios community of practice is needed to produce a more complete and useful toolbox of approaches to meet the needs of IPBES assessment and other assessment of nature benefits. This Chapter describes
The National Map: Benefits at what cost?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsing, D.L.; Theissen, K.M.; Bernknopf, R.L.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has conducted a cost-benefit analysis of The National Map, and determined that, during its 30-year projected lifespan, the project will likely bring a net present value of benefits to society of $2.05 billion. Such a survey enhances the United States' ability to access, integrate, and apply geospatial data at global, national, and local scales. This paper gives an overview on the underlying economic model for evaluating program benefits and presents the primary findings as well as a sensitivity analysis assessing the robustness of the results.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Support Program for Nursing Staff.

PubMed

Moran, Dane; Wu, Albert W; Connors, Cheryl; Chappidi, Meera R; Sreedhara, Sushama K; Selter, Jessica H; Padula, William V

2017-04-27

A peer-support program called Resilience In Stressful Events (RISE) was designed to help hospital staff cope with stressful patient-related events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the RISE program by conducting an economic evaluation of its cost benefit. A Markov model with a 1-year time horizon was developed to compare the cost benefit with and without the RISE program from a provider (hospital) perspective. Nursing staff who used the RISE program between 2015 and 2016 at a 1000-bed, private hospital in the United States were included in the analysis. The cost of running the RISE program, nurse turnover, and nurse time off were modeled. Data on costs were obtained from literature review and hospital data. Probabilities of quitting or taking time off with or without the RISE program were estimated using survey data. Net monetary benefit (NMB) and budget impact of having the RISE program were computed to determine cost benefit to the hospital. Expected model results of the RISE program found a net monetary benefit savings of US $22,576.05 per nurse who initiated a RISE call. These savings were determined to be 99.9% consistent on the basis of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The budget impact analysis revealed that a hospital could save US $1.81 million each year because of the RISE program. The RISE program resulted in substantial cost savings to the hospital. Hospitals should be encouraged by these findings to implement institution-wide support programs for medical staff, based on a high demand for this type of service and the potential for cost savings.
Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

1997-01-01

The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.
A cost-benefit analysis of Wisconsin's screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment program: adding the employer's perspective.

PubMed

Quanbeck, Andrew; Lang, Katharine; Enami, Kohei; Brown, Richard L

2010-02-01

A previous cost-benefit analysis found Screening, Brief Intervention, and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT) to be cost-beneficial from a societal perspective. This paper develops a cost-benefit model that includes the employer's perspective by considering the costs of absenteeism and impaired presenteeism due to problem drinking. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the costs and benefits of SBIRT implementation to an employer. We first presented the likely costs of problem drinking to a theoretical Wisconsin firm that does not currently provide SBIRT services. We then constructed a cost-benefit model in which the firm funds SBIRT for its employees. The net present value of SBIRT adoption was computed by comparing costs due to problem drinking both with and without the program. When absenteeism and impaired presenteeism costs were considered from the employer's perspective, the net present value of SBIRT adoption was $771 per employee. We concluded that implementing SBIRT is cost-beneficial from the employer's perspective and recommend that Wisconsin employers consider covering SBIRT services for their employees.
The effectiveness of the 55 MPH national maximum speed limit as a life saving benefit

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-10-01

The report contains an analysis of the life saving benefits resulting from the 55 mph NMSL from 1974-1979. Monthly fatality data from 1970-1979 was used in a time series model to arrive at the estimated safety benefits (lives saved). The time series ...

Analysis of Costs and Benefits in Rehabilitation. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkowitz, Monroe, Ed.; And Others

This report suggests feasible alternatives to the present methods of calculating benefits and costs of the joint federal-state vocational rehabilitation program. "Summary and Guide to Reading This Report" (Monroe Berkowitz) appears first. Part I, Background, Theory and Models, includes "The Cost Benefit Tradition in Vocational Rehabilitation"…
Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.
Costs and benefits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Two models of cost benefit analysis are illustrated and the application of these models to assessing the economic scope of space applications programs was discussed. Four major areas cited as improvable through space derived information - food supply and distribution, energy sources, mineral reserves, and communication and navigation were - discussed. Specific illustrations are given for agriculture and maritime traffic.
Applications and benefits of technology in naturally fractured, low permeability reservoirs with special emphasis on results from GRI`s devonian shale and berea sand research in the appalachian basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jochen, J.E.; Hopkins, C.W.

1993-12-31

;Contents: Naturally fractured reservoir description; Geologic considerations; Shale-specific log model; Stress profiles; Berea reasearch; Benefits analysis; Summary of technologies; Novel well test methods; Natural fracture identification; Reverse drilling; Production data analysis; Fracture treatment quality control; Novel core analysis methods; and Shale well cleanouts.
Literature Survey of Induced Traffic Due to Transport Cost Savings.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-06-01

19. KEY WORDS (Continue on reveres aide If necessary and identify by block number) Induced traffic, benefit -cost analysis,discriminant analysis...currently " al"ilable t’ induced movement benefit . The reviewer focused on coal and grain . ’.rade. A jide range of sources were consulted and read...in order to find any research that had been done on induced movement benefit . Findings are sum- marized, and future research topics on feasible models
Integrated corridor management analysis, modeling, and simulation for the I–15 corridor in San Diego, California—post-deployment analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-11-01

Post-Deployment Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) activities focus on identifying impacts and benefits of the as-deployed Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) system. The as-deployed ICM strategies may differ from as-planned ...
Integrated corridor management : analysis, modeling, and simulation for the U.S.-15 corridor in Dallas, Texas—post-deployment analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

Post-Deployment Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) activities focus on identifying impacts and benefits of the as-deployed Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) system. The as-deployed ICM strategies may differ from as-planned ...
Business Cases for Microgrids: Modeling Interactions of Technology Choice, Reliability, Cost, and Benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, Ryan

Distributed energy resources (DERs), and increasingly microgrids, are becoming an integral part of modern distribution systems. Interest in microgrids--which are insular and autonomous power networks embedded within the bulk grid--stems largely from the vast array of flexibilities and benefits they can offer stakeholders. Managed well, they can improve grid reliability and resiliency, increase end-use energy efficiency by coupling electric and thermal loads, reduce transmission losses by generating power locally, and may reduce system-wide emissions, among many others. Whether these public benefits are realized, however, depends on whether private firms see a "business case", or private value, in investing. To this end, firms need models that evaluate costs, benefits, risks, and assumptions that underlie decisions to invest. The objectives of this dissertation are to assess the business case for microgrids that provide what industry analysts forecast as two primary drivers of market growth--that of providing energy services (similar to an electric utility) as well as reliability service to customers within. Prototypical first adopters are modeled--using an existing model to analyze energy services and a new model that couples that analysis with one of reliability--to explore interactions between technology choice, reliability, costs, and benefits. The new model has a bi-level hierarchy; it uses heuristic optimization to select and size DERs and analytical optimization to schedule them. It further embeds Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate reliability as well as regression models for customer damage functions to monetize reliability. It provides least-cost microgrid configurations for utility customers who seek to reduce interruption and operating costs. Lastly, the model is used to explore the impact of such adoption on system-wide greenhouse gas emissions in California. Results indicate that there are, at present, co-benefits for emissions reductions when customers adopt and operate microgrids for private benefit, though future analysis is needed as the bulk grid continues to transition toward a less carbon intensive system.
Use of multicriteria decision analysis for assessing the benefit and risk of over-the-counter analgesics.

PubMed

Moore, Andrew; Crossley, Anne; Ng, Bernard; Phillips, Lawrence; Sancak, Özgür; Rainsford, K D

2017-10-01

To test the ability of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) model to incorporate disparate data sources of varying quality along with clinical judgement in a benefit-risk assessment of six well-known pain-relief drugs. Six over-the-counter (OTC) analgesics were evaluated against three favourable effects and eight unfavourable effects by seven experts who specialise in the relief of pain, two in a 2-day facilitated workshop whose input data and judgements were later peer-reviewed by five additional experts. Ibuprofen salts and solubilised emerged with the best benefit-risk profile, followed by naproxen, ibuprofen acid, diclofenac, paracetamol and aspirin. Multicriteria decision analysis enabled participants to evaluate the OTC analgesics against a range of favourable and unfavourable effects in a group setting that enabled all issues to be openly aired and debated. The model was easily communicated and understood by the peer reviewers, so the model should be comprehensible to physicians, pharmacists and other health professionals. © 2017 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.
The population benefit of radiotherapy for gynaecological cancer: Local control and survival estimates.

PubMed

Hanna, Timothy P; Delaney, Geoffrey P; Barton, Michael B

2016-09-01

The population benefit of radiotherapy for gynaecological cancer (GC) if evidence-based guidelines were routinely followed is not known. This study's aim was to address this. Decision trees were utilised to estimate benefit. Radiotherapy alone (RT) benefit was the absolute proportional benefit of radiotherapy over no radiotherapy for radical indications, and over surgery alone for adjuvant indications. Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) benefit was the absolute incremental benefit of concurrent chemotherapy and RT over RT alone. Citation databases were systematically queried for the highest level of evidence defining 5-year Local Control (LC), and 2-year and 5-year Overall Survival (OS) benefit. Meta-analysis was performed if there were multiple sources of the same evidence level. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Guidelines supported 22 radiotherapy indications, of which 8 were for CRT. 21% of all GC had an adjuvant or curative radiotherapy indication. The absolute estimated population-based 5-year LC and OS benefits of RT, if all patients were treated according to guidelines, were: endometrial cancer LC 5.7% (95% CI (3.5%,8.2%)), OS 2.3% (1.2%,3.4%), ovarian cancer (nil), vulval cancer LC 10.0% (1.6%,18.2%), OS 8.5% (0.5%,15.9%). Combined with prior estimates for cervical cancer, RT benefits for all GC were LC 9.0% (7.8%,10.3%), OS 4.6% (3.8%,5.4%). The incremental benefit of CRT for all GC was LC 0.7% (0.4%,0.9%), OS 0.5% (0.2%,0.8%). Benefits were distinct from the contribution of other modalities. The model was robust in sensitivity analysis. Most radiotherapy benefit was irreplaceable by other modalities. Radiotherapy provides important and irreplaceable LC and OS benefits for GC when optimally utilised. The population model provided a robust means for estimating this benefit. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Decision curve analysis assessing the clinical benefit of NMP22 in the detection of bladder cancer: secondary analysis of a prospective trial.

PubMed

Barbieri, Christopher E; Cha, Eugene K; Chromecki, Thomas F; Dunning, Allison; Lotan, Yair; Svatek, Robert S; Scherr, Douglas S; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Sun, Maxine; Mazumdar, Madhu; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2012-03-01

• To employ decision curve analysis to determine the impact of nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22) on clinical decision making in the detection of bladder cancer using data from a prospective trial. • The study included 1303 patients at risk for bladder cancer who underwent cystoscopy, urine cytology and measurement of urinary NMP22 levels. • We constructed several prediction models to estimate risk of bladder cancer. The base model was generated using patient characteristics (age, gender, race, smoking and haematuria); cytology and NMP22 were added to the base model to determine effects on predictive accuracy. • Clinical net benefit was calculated by summing the benefits and subtracting the harms and weighting these by the threshold probability at which a patient or clinician would opt for cystoscopy. • In all, 72 patients were found to have bladder cancer (5.5%). In univariate analyses, NMP22 was the strongest predictor of bladder cancer presence (predictive accuracy 71.3%), followed by age (67.5%) and cytology (64.3%). • In multivariable prediction models, NMP22 improved the predictive accuracy of the base model by 8.2% (area under the curve 70.2-78.4%) and of the base model plus cytology by 4.2% (area under the curve 75.9-80.1%). • Decision curve analysis revealed that adding NMP22 to other models increased clinical benefit, particularly at higher threshold probabilities. • NMP22 is a strong, independent predictor of bladder cancer. • Addition of NMP22 improves the accuracy of standard predictors by a statistically and clinically significant margin. • Decision curve analysis suggests that integration of NMP22 into clinical decision making helps avoid unnecessary cystoscopies, with minimal increased risk of missing a cancer. © 2011 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2011 BJU INTERNATIONAL.
The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaier, Eric M.; Edlich, Alexander; Santmire, Tara S.; Wingrove, Earl R.., III

1999-01-01

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.
An Economic Analysis and Approach for Health Care Preparedness in a Substate Region.

PubMed

Stryckman, Benoit; Grace, Thomas L; Schwarz, Peter; Marcozzi, David

2015-08-01

To demonstrate the application of economics to health care preparedness by estimating the financial return on investment in a substate regional emergency response team and to develop a financial model aimed at sustaining community-level disaster readiness. Economic evaluation methods were applied to the experience of a regional Pennsylvania response capability. A cost-benefit analysis was performed by using information on funding of the response team and 17 real-world events the team responded to between 2008 and 2013. By use of the results of the cost-benefit analysis as well as information on the response team's catchment area, a risk-based insurance-like membership model was built. The cost-benefit analysis showed a positive return after 6 years of investment in the regional emergency response team. Financial modeling allowed for the calculation of premiums for 2 types of providers within the emergency response team's catchment area: hospitals and long-term care facilities. The analysis indicated that preparedness activities have a positive return on their investment in this substate region. By applying economic principles, communities can estimate their return on investment to make better business decisions in an effort to increase the sustainability of emergency preparedness programs at the regional level.
The effectiveness of the 55 MPH national maximum speed limit as a life saving benefit : executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

The following report contains an analysis of the life saving benefits resulting from the 55 mph NMSL from 1974-1979. Monthly fatality data from 1970-1979 was used in a time series model to arrive at the estimated safety benefits (lives saved). The ti...
Networking K-12 Schools: Architecture Models and Evaluation of Costs and Benefits.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothstein, Russell Isaac

This thesis examines the cost and benefits of communication networks in K-12 schools using cost analysis of five technology models with increasing levels of connectivity. Data indicate that the cost of the network hardware is only a small fraction of the overall networking costs. PC purchases, initial training, and retrofitting are the largest…
Optimization Model for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EPA Vehicle Greenhouse Gas (VGHG) model is used to apply various technologies to a defined set of vehicles in order to meet a specified GHG emission target, and to then calculate the costs and benefits of doing so. To facilitate its analysis of the costs and benefits of the control of GHG emissions from cars and trucks.
The Cost-Effectiveness of Syphilis Screening Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: An Exploratory Modeling Analysis.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Kidd, Sarah; Bernstein, Kyle T; Fanfair, Robyn Neblett; Gift, Thomas L

2016-07-01

We adapted a published model to estimate the costs and benefits of screening men who have sex with men for syphilis, including the benefits of preventing syphilis-attributable human immunodeficiency virus. The cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by screening was
Global eradication of poliomyelitis: benefit-cost analysis.

PubMed Central

Bart, K. J.; Foulds, J.; Patriarca, P.

1996-01-01

A benefit-cost analysis of the Poliomyelitis Eradication Initiative was undertaken to facilitate national and international decision-making with regard to financial support. The base case examined the net costs and benefits during the period 1986-2040; the model assumed differential costs for oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and vaccine delivery in industrialized and developing countries, and ignored all benefits aside from reductions in direct costs for treatment and rehabilitation. The model showed that the "break-even" point at which benefits exceeded costs was the year 2007, with a saving of US$ 13 600 million by the year 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed only small differences in the break-even point and in the dollars saved, when compared with the base case, even with large variations in the target age group for vaccination, the proportion of case-patients seeking medical attention, and the cost of vaccine delivery. The technical feasibility of global eradication is supported by the availability of an easily administered, inexpensive vaccine (OPV), the epidemiological characteristics of poliomyelitis, and the successful experience in the Americas with elimination of wild poliovirus infection. This model demonstrates that the Poliomyelitis Eradication Initiative is economically justified. PMID:8653814
Relative importance of attributes of drug benefit plans: Thai civil servants' perspective.

PubMed

Ngorsuraches, Surachat; Wanishayakorn, Tanatape; Tanvejsilp, Pimwara; Udomaksorn, Siripa

2013-01-01

The drug benefit plan of Thailand's Civil Servant Medical Benefit Scheme (CSMBS) must be amended to control increasing costs; to that end, it is important to gather the views of beneficiaries before making changes to the benefit plan. To examine the relative importance of attributes of drug benefit plans from the perspective of CSMBS beneficiaries. Attributes and levels adopted from focus group discussions and a preliminary survey were used to develop a questionnaire concerning hypothetical drug benefit plans. A convenience sample of 650 CSMBS beneficiaries in Songkhla province was asked to rate the drug benefit plans. To determine the beneficiaries' decision models, judgment analysis was used. Policy-capturing analysis was used to examine the beneficiaries' preferences, and cluster analysis was conducted to explore the variability among judgment plans. Judgment policy insight was also examined. The results of the study showed that the beneficiaries weighed on cost-sharing as their most important attribute. The results remained unchanged, although only data from the beneficiaries who used the compensatory model were analyzed. The results of the cluster analysis showed that the largest cluster of beneficiaries weighed mostly on the cost-sharing attribute. The judgment policy insight results not only supported the finding that most beneficiaries focused on the cost-sharing attribute but also revealed that they might have the least understanding of how the formulary attribute affected beneficiaries' decision making. Cost-sharing was the most important attribute for the CSMBS beneficiaries. This study indicated that a possible preferred drug benefit plan should have no cost-sharing, permit access only to drugs listed in a closed formulary, allow beneficiaries to obtain 3 months of drugs, and allow them to obtain drugs from either a community pharmacy or a government hospital. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation.

PubMed

Wilkinson, D; Bennett, R; McFarlane, I; Rushton, S; Shirley, M; Smith, G C

2009-10-01

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

[Cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis on strategy for preventing mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus].

PubMed

Cai, Y L; Zhang, S X; Yang, P C; Lin, Y

2016-06-01

Through cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and quantitative optimization analysis to understand the economic benefit and outcomes of strategy regarding preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) on hepatitis B virus. Based on the principle of Hepatitis B immunization decision analytic-Markov model, strategies on PMTCT and universal vaccination were compared. Related parameters of Shenzhen were introduced to the model, a birth cohort was set up as the study population in 2013. The net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated and the differences between CBA and CEA were compared. A decision tree was built as the decision analysis model for hepatitis B immunization. Three kinds of Markov models were used to simulate the outcomes after the implementation of vaccination program. The PMTCT strategy of Shenzhen showed a net-gain as 38 097.51 Yuan/per person in 2013, with BCR as 14.37. The universal vaccination strategy showed a net-gain as 37 083.03 Yuan/per person, with BCR as 12.07. Data showed that the PMTCT strategy was better than the universal vaccination one and would end with gaining more economic benefit. When comparing with the universal vaccination program, the PMTCT strategy would save 85 100.00 Yuan more on QALY gains for every person. The PMTCT strategy seemed more cost-effective compared with the one under universal vaccination program. In the CBA and CEA hepatitis B immunization programs, the immunization coverage rate and costs of hepatitis B related diseases were the most important influencing factors. Outcomes of joint-changes of all the parameters in CEA showed that PMTCT strategy was a more cost-effective. The PMTCT strategy gained more economic benefit and effects on health. However, the cost of PMTCT strategy was more than the universal vaccination program, thus it is important to pay attention to the process of PMTCT strategy and the universal vaccination program. CBA seemed suitable for strategy optimization while CEA was better for strategy evaluation. Hopefully, programs as combination of the above said two methods would facilitate the process of economic evaluation.
Comprehensive benefit analysis of regional water resources based on multi-objective evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Yixia; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Hui

2018-01-01

The purpose of the water resources comprehensive benefits analysis is to maximize the comprehensive benefits on the aspects of social, economic and ecological environment. Aiming at the defects of the traditional analytic hierarchy process in the evaluation of water resources, it proposed a comprehensive benefit evaluation of social, economic and environmental benefits index from the perspective of water resources comprehensive benefit in the social system, economic system and environmental system; determined the index weight by the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), calculated the relative index of water resources comprehensive benefit and analyzed the comprehensive benefit of water resources in Xiangshui County by the multi-objective evaluation model. Based on the water resources data in Xiangshui County, 20 main comprehensive benefit assessment factors of 5 districts belonged to Xiangshui County were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive benefit of Xiangshui County was 0.7317, meanwhile the social economy has a further development space in the current situation of water resources.
Market Assessment of Forward-Looking Turbulence Sensing Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kauffmann, Paul

2003-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides a cost benefit analysis of three next-generation forward-looking turbulence sensing systems: X band turbulence radar system for convective turbulence, LIDAR based turbulence systems to sense clear air turbulence and a combined hybrid system. Parameters for the cost benefit analysis were established using a business model which considered injury rates, cost of injuries, indirect costs, market penetration rate estimates and product success characteristics. Topics covered include: study approach, business case equations, data acquisition, benchmark analysis. Data interpretation from the cost benefit analysis is presented. The researchers conclude that the market potential for these products is based primarily on injury cost reduction and that X band radar systems have the greatest chance for commercial success.
Integrated corridor management analysis, modeling, and simulation results for the test corridor.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

This report documents the Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS) tools and strategies used on a Test Corridor, presents results and lessons-learned, and documents the relative capability of AMS to support benefit-...
A benefit-cost analysis of ten tree species in Modesto, California, U.S.A

Treesearch

E.G. McPherson

2003-01-01

Tree work records for ten species were analyzed to estimate average annual management costs by dbh class for six activity areas. Average annual benefits were calculated by dbh class for each species with computer modeling. Average annual net benefits per tree were greatest for London plane (Platanus acerifolia) ($178.57), hackberry (...
A general framework for the use of logistic regression models in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simmonds, Mark C; Higgins, Julian Pt

2016-12-01

Where individual participant data are available for every randomised trial in a meta-analysis of dichotomous event outcomes, "one-stage" random-effects logistic regression models have been proposed as a way to analyse these data. Such models can also be used even when individual participant data are not available and we have only summary contingency table data. One benefit of this one-stage regression model over conventional meta-analysis methods is that it maximises the correct binomial likelihood for the data and so does not require the common assumption that effect estimates are normally distributed. A second benefit of using this model is that it may be applied, with only minor modification, in a range of meta-analytic scenarios, including meta-regression, network meta-analyses and meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. This single model can potentially replace the variety of often complex methods used in these areas. This paper considers, with a range of meta-analysis examples, how random-effects logistic regression models may be used in a number of different types of meta-analyses. This one-stage approach is compared with widely used meta-analysis methods including Bayesian network meta-analysis and the bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) models for meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. © The Author(s) 2014.
Novel model of direct and indirect cost-benefit analysis of mechanical embolectomy over IV tPA for large vessel occlusions: a real-world dollar analysis based on improvements in mRS.

PubMed

Mangla, Sundeep; O'Connell, Keara; Kumari, Divya; Shahrzad, Maryam

2016-01-20

Ischemic strokes result in significant healthcare expenditures (direct costs) and loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (indirect costs). Interventional therapy has demonstrated improved functional outcomes in patients with large vessel occlusions (LVOs), which are likely to reduce the economic burden of strokes. To develop a novel real-world dollar model to assess the direct and indirect cost-benefit of mechanical embolectomy compared with medical treatment with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV tPA) based on shifts in modified Rankin scores (mRS). A cost model was developed including multiple parameters to account for both direct and indirect stroke costs. These were adjusted based upon functional outcome (mRS). The model compared IV tPA with mechanical embolectomy to assess the costs and benefits of both therapies. Direct stroke-related costs included hospitalization, inpatient and outpatient rehabilitation, home care, skilled nursing facilities, and long-term care facility costs. Indirect costs included years of life expectancy lost and lost QALYs. Values for the model cost parameters were derived from numerous resources and functional outcomes were derived from the MR CLEAN study as a reflective sample of LVOs. Direct and indirect costs and benefits for the two treatments were assessed using Microsoft Excel 2013. This cost-benefit model found a cost-benefit of mechanical embolectomy over IV tPA of $163 624.27 per patient and the cost benefit for 50 000 patients on an annual basis is $8 181 213 653.77. If applied widely within the USA, mechanical embolectomy will significantly reduce the direct and indirect financial burden of stroke ($8 billion/50 000 patients). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Cost-benefit analysis of alternative fuels and motive designs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

This project was funded by the Federal Railroad Administration to better understand the potential cost and benefits of using alternative fuels for U.S. freight and passenger locomotive operations. The framework for a decision model was developed by T...
Modeling and analysis of walkability in suburban neighborhoods in Las Vegas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-01

Walking has sound health benefits and can be a pleasurable experience requiring neither fuel, fare, license, nor registration. : Society also benefits by the associated reduction of motorized vehicle travel. The objective of this study was to quantif...
A fuzzy cost-benefit function to select economical products for processing in a closed-loop supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pochampally, Kishore K.; Gupta, Surendra M.; Cullinane, Thomas P.

2004-02-01

The cost-benefit analysis of data associated with re-processing of used products often involves the uncertainty feature of cash-flow modeling. The data is not objective because of uncertainties in supply, quality and disassembly times of used products. Hence, decision-makers must rely on "fuzzy" data for analysis. The same parties that are involved in the forward supply chain often carry out the collection and re-processing of used products. It is therefore important that the cost-benefit analysis takes the data of both new products and used products into account. In this paper, a fuzzy cost-benefit function is proposed that is used to perform a multi-criteria economic analysis to select the most economical products to process in a closed-loop supply chain. Application of the function is detailed through an illustrative example.
Cost Benefit of Comprehensive Primary and Preventive School-Based Health Care.

PubMed

Padula, William V; Connor, Katherine A; Mueller, Josiah M; Hong, Jonathan C; Velazquez, Gabriela Calderon; Johnson, Sara B

2018-01-01

The Rales Health Center is a comprehensive school-based health center at an urban elementary/middle school. Rales Health Center provides a full range of pediatric services using an enriched staffing model consisting of pediatrician, nurse practitioner, registered nurses, and medical office assistant. This staffing model provides greater care but costs more than traditional school-based health centers staffed by part-time nurses. The objective was to analyze the cost benefit of Rales Health Center enhanced staffing model compared with a traditional school-based health center (standard care), focusing on asthma care, which is among the most prevalent chronic conditions of childhood. In 2016, cost-benefit analysis using a decision tree determined the net social benefit of Rales Health Center compared with standard care from the U.S. societal perspective based on the 2015-2016 academic year. It was assumed that Rales Health Center could handle greater patient throughput related to asthma, decreased prescription costs, reduced parental resources in terms of missed work time, and improved student attendance. Univariate and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. The expected cost to operate Rales Health Center was $409,120, compared with standard care cost of $172,643. Total monetized incremental benefits of Rales Health Center were estimated to be $993,414. The expected net social benefit for Rales Health Center was $756,937, which demonstrated substantial societal benefit at a return of $4.20 for every dollar invested. This net social benefit estimate was robust to sensitivity analyses. Despite the greater cost associated with the Rales Health Center's enhanced staffing model, the results of this analysis highlight the cost benefit of providing comprehensive, high-quality pediatric care in schools, particularly schools with a large proportion of underserved students. Copyright © 2018 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A Hybrid Model for IT Investment Analysis: Application to RFID Adoption in the Retail Sector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasiri, Narges A.

2010-01-01

Scope and Method of Study. One of the major obstacles in Information Technology (IT) adoption is its return on investment analysis. IT benefits in organizations are hard to measure and are usually realized over time. System dynamics approach has been used in IT literature to identify the impact of IT on business processes. Given benefits of any IT…
Separating analysis from politics: Acid rain in Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patt, A.

Over the last twenty years, policy-makers in Europe have attempted to solve the problem of acid rain using detailed analysis grounded in natural science and economics. The results are impressive, as Europeans have successfully implemented a number of international agreements to reduce pollution emissions, agreements that in theory achieve the greatest environmental benefit at the lowest aggregate cost across Europe. This article examines the analysis on which these policies were based. First, it finds a pattern of investigating the use of cost-benefit analysis, together with a lack of usefulness associated with the actual results of such analysis. Second, it findsmore » that the analytic framework that came to replace cost-benefit analysis--critical loads--contained many of the same uncertainties and political decisions that plagued cost-benefit analysis. Nevertheless, critical loads analysis was seen as less value-laden and more reliable, and contributed significantly to policy development. Desire for rapid action led policy-makers to ignore or overlook the politics and uncertainties inherent in efforts at scientific assessment and modeling.« less
Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for a large US automaker will be developed. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model will be constructed to calculate and compare the cost and benefits of PHEVs, conventional vehicles (CVs) and HEVs. Then a comprehensive literature review of PHEVs penetration rate studies will be developed to review and analyze the primary purposes, methods, and results of studies of PHEV market penetration. Finally a multi-criteria modeling system will incorporate results of the support model results. In this project, the models, analysis and results will provide a broader understanding of the benefits and costs of PHEV technology and the parties to whom those benefits accrue. The findings will provide important information for consumers, automakers and policy makers to understand and define HEVs and PHEVs costs, benefits, expected penetration rate and the preferred vehicle design and technology scenario to meet the requirements of policy, society, industry and consumers.
75 FR 9410 - Science Advisory Board Staff Office Notification of a Public Teleconference of the Air Quality...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-02

... advisory report on EPA's air quality modeling work for the Second Section 812 Prospective Benefit-Cost... Section 812 Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Clean Air Act. The Council was established in 1991 pursuant to... assess benefits and costs of the EPA's regulatory actions under the Clean Air Act. The Council has...
A Comparative Analysis of Commercial Off-The-Shelf Naval Simulations and Classic Operations Research Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

69 VI. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................73 A. CONCLUSION ........................................73 1. Benefits of Off...simulation software results and similar results produced from the thesis work conducted by Ozdemir (2009). This study directly benefits decision makers...interested in identifying and benefiting from a cost- effective, readily available aggregated learning tool, with the potential to provide tactical
Estimating individual benefits of medical or behavioral treatments in severely ill patients.

PubMed

Diaz, Francisco J

2017-01-01

There is a need for statistical methods appropriate for the analysis of clinical trials from a personalized-medicine viewpoint as opposed to the common statistical practice that simply examines average treatment effects. This article proposes an approach to quantifying, reporting and analyzing individual benefits of medical or behavioral treatments to severely ill patients with chronic conditions, using data from clinical trials. The approach is a new development of a published framework for measuring the severity of a chronic disease and the benefits treatments provide to individuals, which utilizes regression models with random coefficients. Here, a patient is considered to be severely ill if the patient's basal severity is close to one. This allows the derivation of a very flexible family of probability distributions of individual benefits that depend on treatment duration and the covariates included in the regression model. Our approach may enrich the statistical analysis of clinical trials of severely ill patients because it allows investigating the probability distribution of individual benefits in the patient population and the variables that influence it, and we can also measure the benefits achieved in specific patients including new patients. We illustrate our approach using data from a clinical trial of the anti-depressant imipramine.
[Decision tree and cost-benefit analysis on strategies related to preventing maternal-infantile transmission of hepatitis B virus infection].

PubMed

Shi, Guo; Zhang, Shun-xiang

2013-03-01

To synthesize relevant data and to analyze the benefit-cost ratio on strategies related to preventing the maternal-infantile transmission of hepatitis B virus infection and to explore the optimal strategy. A decision tree model was constructed according to the strategies of hepatitis B immunization and a Markov model was conducted to simulate the complex disease progress after HBV infection. Parameters in the models were drawn from meta-analysis and information was collected from field study and review of literature. Economic evaluation was performed to calculate costs, benefit, and the benefit-cost ratio. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted and a tornado graph was drawn. In view of the current six possible strategies in preventing maternal-infantile transmission of hepatitis B virus infection, a multi-stage decision tree model was constructed to screen hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) or screen for HBsAg then hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg). Dose and the number of injections of HBIG and hepatitis B vaccine were taken into consideration in the model. All the strategies were considered to be cost-saving, while the strategy of screening for HBsAg and then offering hepatitis B vaccine of 10 µg×3 for all neonates with hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) of 100 IU×1 for the neonates born to mothers who tested positive for HBsAg appeared with most cost-saving. In the strategies, the benefit-cost ratio of using 100 IU HBIG was similar to 200 IU HBIG, and one shot of HBIG was superior to two shots. from sensitivity analysis suggested that the rates of immunization and the efficacy of the strategy in preventing maternal-infantile transmission were the main sensitive variables in the model. The passive-active immune-prophylaxis strategy that using 10 µg hepatitis B vaccine combined with 100 IU HBIG seemed to be the optimal strategy in preventing maternal-infantile transmission, while the rates of immunization and the efficacy of the strategy played the key roles in choosing the ideal strategy.
A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

2011-05-30

Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Energy savings and cost-benefit analysis of the new commercial building standard in China

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Shanguo; Feng, Wei; Zhang, Shicong; ...

2015-10-07

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of the commercial building energy efficiency standard between the previous 2005 version and the new proposed version is conducted, including the energy efficiency analysis and cost-benefit analysis. To better understand the tech-economic performance of the new Chinese standard, energy models were set up based on a typical commercial office building in Chinese climate zones. The building energy standard in 2005 is used as the baseline for this analysis. Key building technologies measures are analyzed individually, including roof, wall, window, lighting and chiller and so on and finally whole building cost-benefit analysis was conducted. Resultsmore » show that the new commercial building energy standard demonstrates good cost-effective performance, with whole building payback period around 4 years.« less

Energy savings and cost-benefit analysis of the new commercial building standard in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Shanguo; Feng, Wei; Zhang, Shicong

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of the commercial building energy efficiency standard between the previous 2005 version and the new proposed version is conducted, including the energy efficiency analysis and cost-benefit analysis. To better understand the tech-economic performance of the new Chinese standard, energy models were set up based on a typical commercial office building in Chinese climate zones. The building energy standard in 2005 is used as the baseline for this analysis. Key building technologies measures are analyzed individually, including roof, wall, window, lighting and chiller and so on and finally whole building cost-benefit analysis was conducted. Resultsmore » show that the new commercial building energy standard demonstrates good cost-effective performance, with whole building payback period around 4 years.« less
Cost-Effectiveness/Cost-Benefit Analysis of Newborn Screening for Severe Combined Immune Deficiency in Washington State.

PubMed

Ding, Yao; Thompson, John D; Kobrynski, Lisa; Ojodu, Jelili; Zarbalian, Guisou; Grosse, Scott D

2016-05-01

To evaluate the expected cost-effectiveness and net benefit of the recent implementation of newborn screening (NBS) for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) in Washington State. We constructed a decision analysis model to estimate the costs and benefits of NBS in an annual birth cohort of 86 600 infants based on projections of avoided infant deaths. Point estimates and ranges for input variables, including the birth prevalence of SCID, proportion detected asymptomatically without screening through family history, screening test characteristics, survival rates, and costs of screening, diagnosis, and treatment were derived from published estimates, expert opinion, and the Washington NBS program. We estimated treatment costs stratified by age of identification and SCID type (with or without adenosine deaminase deficiency). Economic benefit was estimated using values of $4.2 and $9.0 million per death averted. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of key variables on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of net direct cost per life-year saved. Our model predicts an additional 1.19 newborn infants with SCID detected preclinically through screening, in addition to those who would have been detected early through family history, and 0.40 deaths averted annually. Our base-case model suggests an ICER of $35 311 per life-year saved, and a benefit-cost ratio of either 5.31 or 2.71. Sensitivity analyses found ICER values <$100 000 and positive net benefit for plausible assumptions on all variables. Our model suggests that NBS for SCID in Washington is likely to be cost-effective and to show positive net economic benefit. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Economic analysis of measles elimination program in the Republic of Korea, 2001: a cost benefit analysis study.

PubMed

Bae, Geun-Ryang; Choe, Young June; Go, Un Yeong; Kim, Yong-Ik; Lee, Jong-Koo

2013-05-31

In this study, we modeled the cost benefit analysis for three different measles vaccination strategies based upon three different measles-containing vaccines in Korea, 2001. We employed an economic analysis model using vaccination coverage data and population-based measles surveillance data, along with available estimates of the costs for the different strategies. In addition, we have included analysis on benefit of reduction of complication by mumps and rubella. We evaluated four different strategies: strategy 1, keep-up program with a second dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine at 4-6 years without catch-up campaign; strategy 2, additional catch-up campaign with measles (M) vaccine; strategy 3, catch-up campaign with measles-rubella (MR) vaccine; and strategy 4, catch-up campaign with MMR vaccine. The cost of vaccination included cost for vaccines, vaccination practices and other administrative expenses. The direct benefit of estimated using data from National Health Insurance Company, a government-operated system that reimburses all medical costs spent on designated illness in Korea. With the routine one-dose MMR vaccination program, we estimated a baseline of 178,560 measles cases over the 20 years; when the catch-up campaign with M, MR or MMR vaccines was conducted, we estimated the measles cases would decrease to 5936 cases. Among all strategies, the two-dose MMR keep-up program with MR catch-up campaign showed the highest benefit-cost ratio of 1.27 with a net benefit of 51.6 billion KRW. Across different vaccination strategies, our finding suggest that MR catch-up campaign in conjunction with two-dose MMR keep-up program was the most appropriate option in terms of economic costs and public health effects associated with measles elimination strategy in Korea. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Missing Stakeholder Group: Why Patients Should be Involved in Health Economic Modelling.

PubMed

van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Hamerlijnck, Dominique; Ramos, Isaac Corro; Teunissen, Geertruida J; Al, Maiwenn; Feenstra, Talitha L

2016-04-01

Evaluations of healthcare interventions, e.g. new drugs or other new treatment strategies, commonly include a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) that is based on the application of health economic (HE) models. As end users, patients are important stakeholders regarding the outcomes of CEAs, yet their knowledge of HE model development and application, or their involvement therein, is absent. This paper considers possible benefits and risks of patient involvement in HE model development and application for modellers and patients. An exploratory review of the literature has been performed on stakeholder-involved modelling in various disciplines. In addition, Dutch patient experts have been interviewed about their experience in, and opinion about, the application of HE models. Patients have little to no knowledge of HE models and are seldom involved in HE model development and application. Benefits of becoming involved would include a greater understanding and possible acceptance by patients of HE model application, improved model validation, and a more direct infusion of patient expertise. Risks would include patient bias and increased costs of modelling. Patient involvement in HE modelling seems to carry several benefits as well as risks. We claim that the benefits may outweigh the risks and that patients should become involved.
Projecting the impact of a nationwide school plain water access intervention on childhood obesity: a cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

An, R; Xue, H; Wang, L; Wang, Y

2017-09-22

This study aimed to project the societal cost and benefit of an expansion of a water access intervention that promotes lunchtime plain water consumption by placing water dispensers in New York school cafeterias to all schools nationwide. A decision model was constructed to simulate two events under Markov chain processes - placing water dispensers at lunchtimes in school cafeterias nationwide vs. no action. The incremental cost pertained to water dispenser purchase and maintenance, whereas the incremental benefit was resulted from cases of childhood overweight/obesity prevented and corresponding lifetime direct (medical) and indirect costs saved. Based on the decision model, the estimated incremental cost of the school-based water access intervention is $18 per student, and the corresponding incremental benefit is $192, resulting in a net benefit of $174 per student. Subgroup analysis estimates the net benefit per student to be $199 and $149 among boys and girls, respectively. Nationwide adoption of the intervention would prevent 0.57 million cases of childhood overweight, resulting in a lifetime cost saving totalling $13.1 billion. The estimated total cost saved per dollar spent was $14.5. The New York school-based water access intervention, if adopted nationwide, may have a considerably favourable benefit-cost portfolio. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.
Photovoltaic venture analysis. Final report. Volume I. Executive summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costello, D.; Posner, D.; Schiffel, D.

1978-07-01

The objective of the study, government programs under investigation, and a brief review of the approach are presented. Potential markets for photovoltaic systems relevant to the study are described. The response of the photovoltaic supply industry is then considered. A model which integrates the supply and demand characteristics of photovoltaics over time was developed. This model also calculates the economic benefits associated with various government subsidy programs. Results are derived under alternative possible supply, demand, and macroeconomic conditions. A probabilistic analysis of the costs and benefits of a $380 million federal photovoltaic procurement initiative, as well as certain alternative strategies,more » is summarized. Conclusions and recommendations based on the analysis are presented.« less
Methodological Framework for Analysis of Buildings-Related Programs with BEAMS, 2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, Douglas B.; Dirks, James A.; Hostick, Donna J.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) develops official “benefits estimates” for each of its major programs using its Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation (PAE) Team. PAE conducts an annual integrated modeling and analysis effort to produce estimates of the energy, environmental, and financial benefits expected from EERE’s budget request. These estimates are part of EERE’s budget request and are also used in the formulation of EERE’s performance measures. Two of EERE’s major programs are the Building Technologies Program (BT) and the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP). Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) supports PAEmore » by developing the program characterizations and other market information necessary to provide input to the EERE integrated modeling analysis as part of PAE’s Portfolio Decision Support (PDS) effort. Additionally, PNNL also supports BT by providing line-item estimates for the Program’s internal use. PNNL uses three modeling approaches to perform these analyses. This report documents the approach and methodology used to estimate future energy, environmental, and financial benefits using one of those methods: the Building Energy Analysis and Modeling System (BEAMS). BEAMS is a PC-based accounting model that was built in Visual Basic by PNNL specifically for estimating the benefits of buildings-related projects. It allows various types of projects to be characterized including whole-building, envelope, lighting, and equipment projects. This document contains an overview section that describes the estimation process and the models used to estimate energy savings. The body of the document describes the algorithms used within the BEAMS software. This document serves both as stand-alone documentation for BEAMS, and also as a supplemental update of a previous document, Methodological Framework for Analysis of Buildings-Related Programs: The GPRA Metrics Effort, (Elliott et al. 2004b). The areas most changed since the publication of that previous document are those discussing the calculation of lighting and HVAC interactive effects (for both lighting and envelope/whole-building projects). This report does not attempt to convey inputs to BEAMS or the methodology of their derivation.« less
Robotic Versus Open Renal Transplantation in Obese Patients: Protocol for a Cost-Benefit Markov Model Analysis

PubMed Central

Puttarajappa, Chethan; Wijkstrom, Martin; Ganoza, Armando; Lopez, Roberto; Tevar, Amit

2018-01-01

Background Recent studies have reported a significant decrease in wound problems and hospital stay in obese patients undergoing renal transplantation by robotic-assisted minimally invasive techniques with no difference in graft function. Objective Due to the lack of cost-benefit studies on the use of robotic-assisted renal transplantation versus open surgical procedure, the primary aim of our study is to develop a Markov model to analyze the cost-benefit of robotic surgery versus open traditional surgery in obese patients in need of a renal transplant. Methods Electronic searches will be conducted to identify studies comparing open renal transplantation versus robotic-assisted renal transplantation. Costs associated with the two surgical techniques will incorporate the expenses of the resources used for the operations. A decision analysis model will be developed to simulate a randomized controlled trial comparing three interventional arms: (1) continuation of renal replacement therapy for patients who are considered non-suitable candidates for renal transplantation due to obesity, (2) transplant recipients undergoing open transplant surgery, and (3) transplant patients undergoing robotic-assisted renal transplantation. TreeAge Pro 2017 R1 TreeAge Software, Williamstown, MA, USA) will be used to create a Markov model and microsimulation will be used to compare costs and benefits for the two competing surgical interventions. Results The model will simulate a randomized controlled trial of adult obese patients affected by end-stage renal disease undergoing renal transplantation. The absorbing state of the model will be patients' death from any cause. By choosing death as the absorbing state, we will be able simulate the population of renal transplant recipients from the day of their randomization to transplant surgery or continuation on renal replacement therapy to their death and perform sensitivity analysis around patients' age at the time of randomization to determine if age is a critical variable for cost-benefit analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis comparing renal replacement therapy, robotic-assisted surgery or open renal transplant surgery. After running the model, one of the three competing strategies will result as the most cost-beneficial or cost-effective under common circumstances. To assess the robustness of the results of the model, a multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be performed by modifying the mean values and confidence intervals of key parameters with the main intent of assessing if the winning strategy is sensitive to rigorous and plausible variations of those values. Conclusions After running the model, one of the three competing strategies will result as the most cost-beneficial or cost-effective under common circumstances. To assess the robustness of the results of the model, a multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be performed by modifying the mean values and confidence intervals of key parameters with the main intent of assessing if the winning strategy is sensitive to rigorous and plausible variations of those values. PMID:29519780
The Negative Effects of Public Benefits on Individual Employment: A Multilevel Analysis of Work Hours.

PubMed

Nord, Derek; Nye-Lengerman, Kelly

2015-08-01

Public benefits are widely used by people with intellectual and development disabilities (IDD) as crucial financial supports. Using Rehabilitation Service Administration 911 and Annual Review Report datasets to account for individual and state vocational rehabilitation (VR) agency variables, a sample of 21,869 people with IDD were analyzed using hierarchical linear modeling to model the effects of public benefits on hours worked per week. Findings point to associations that indicate that public benefits not only limit access to employment participation, they also have a restricting effect on growth of weekly hours that typically come with higher wage positions, compared those that do not access benefits. The article also lays out important implications and recommendations to increase the inclusion of people with IDD in the workplace.
An Economic Analysis of Investment in the United States Shipbuilding Industry

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) input/output data and the “Leontief inversion process” modeled at Carnegie Mellon University. This... modeled at Carnegie Mellon University. This sector was compared with five alternative investments. Second, the benefits of the shipyard-related...EIO-LCA Model ..................................39 2. Shipyard Direct Labor Trends .........................................................43 viii 3
A Comprehensive Fusion Liaison Officer Program: The Arizona Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

Office of Intelligence and Analysis, Office of Intelligence and Analysis Strategic Plan Fiscal Year 2011–Fiscal Year 2018 (Washington, DC: U.S...needs. The second chapter will provide a historical perspective to the reader on the creation of the post 9/11 city of Phoenix’s Liaison Officer...fusion centers’ benefit to address baseline capabilities and further benefit their home agencies. Chapter VI provides the reader recommendations and
Placental alpha-microglobulin-1 and combined traditional diagnostic test: a cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Echebiri, Nelson C; McDoom, M Maya; Pullen, Jessica A; Aalto, Meaghan M; Patel, Natasha N; Doyle, Nora M

2015-01-01

We sought to evaluate if the placental alpha-microglobulin (PAMG)-1 test vs the combined traditional diagnostic test (CTDT) of pooling, nitrazine, and ferning would be a cost-beneficial screening strategy in the setting of potential preterm premature rupture of membranes. A decision analysis model was used to estimate the economic impact of PAMG-1 test vs the CTDT on preterm delivery costs from a societal perspective. Our primary outcome was the annual net cost-benefit per person tested. Baseline probabilities and costs assumptions were derived from published literature. We conducted sensitivity analyses using both deterministic and probabilistic models. Cost estimates reflect 2013 US dollars. Annual net benefit from PAMG-1 was $20,014 per person tested, while CTDT had a net benefit of $15,757 per person tested. If the probability of rupture is <38%, PAMG-1 will be cost-beneficial with an annual net benefit of $16,000-37,000 per person tested, while CTDT will have an annual net benefit of $16,000-19,500 per person tested. If the probability of rupture is >38%, CTDT is more cost-beneficial. Monte Carlo simulations of 1 million trials selected PAMG-1 as the optimal strategy with a frequency of 89%, while CTDT was only selected as the optimal strategy with a frequency of 11%. Sensitivity analyses were robust. Our cost-benefit analysis provides the economic evidence for the adoption of PAMG-1 in diagnosing preterm premature rupture of membranes in uncertain presentations and when CTDT is equivocal at 34 to <37 weeks' gestation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Meeting report: Estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants--summary of 2009 workshop and future considerations.

PubMed

Gwinn, Maureen R; Craig, Jeneva; Axelrad, Daniel A; Cook, Rich; Dockins, Chris; Fann, Neal; Fegley, Robert; Guinnup, David E; Helfand, Gloria; Hubbell, Bryan; Mazur, Sarah L; Palma, Ted; Smith, Roy L; Vandenberg, John; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2011-01-01

Quantifying the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, or air toxics) has been limited by gaps in toxicological data, uncertainties in extrapolating results from high-dose animal experiments to estimate human effects at lower doses, limited ambient and personal exposure monitoring data, and insufficient economic research to support valuation of the health impacts often associated with exposure to individual air toxics. To address some of these issues, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency held the Workshop on Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) in Washington, DC, from 30 April to 1 May 2009. Experts from multiple disciplines discussed how best to move forward on air toxics benefits assessment, with a focus on developing near-term capability to conduct quantitative benefits assessment. Proposed methodologies involved analysis of data-rich pollutants and application of this analysis to other pollutants, using dose-response modeling of animal data for estimating benefits to humans, determining dose-equivalence relationships for different chemicals with similar health effects, and analysis similar to that used for criteria pollutants. Limitations and uncertainties in economic valuation of benefits assessment for HAPS were discussed as well. These discussions highlighted the complexities in estimating the benefits of reducing air toxics, and participants agreed that alternative methods for benefits assessment of HAPs are needed. Recommendations included clearly defining the key priorities of the Clean Air Act air toxics program to identify the most effective approaches for HAPs benefits analysis, focusing on susceptible and vulnerable populations, and improving dose-response estimation for quantification of benefits.
Self-practice and self-reflection in cognitive behaviour therapy training: what factors influence trainees' engagement and experience of benefit?

PubMed

Bennett-Levy, James; Lee, Nicole K

2014-01-01

Previous studies of self-practice/self-reflection (SP/SR) CBT training have found that trainees report significant benefits from practising CBT techniques on themselves (self-practice) and reflecting on their experience (self-reflection) as a formal part of their CBT training. However, not all trainees experience the same level of benefit from SP/SR and not all types of training course produce benefits to the same extent. This paper examines the question: What factors influence trainees' reported benefit from SP/SR? The aim was to develop a model to maximize the value of SP/SR training. The authors used a grounded theory analysis of four SP/SR training courses, varying along several dimensions, to derive a model that could account for the data. A model was derived comprising of seven elements: Two outcomes - "Experience of Benefit" and "Engagement with the Process" - that mutually influence one another; and five other influencing factors - "Course Structure and Requirements", "Expectation of Benefit", "Feeling of Safety with the Process", "Group Process", and "Available Personal Resources" - that mediate the impact on Engagement with the Process and Experience of Benefit from SP/SR. A model that provides guidance about the best ways to set up and develop SP/SR programs has been developed. This model may now be subject to empirical testing by trainers and researchers. Implications and recommendations for the design and development of future SP/SR programs are discussed.
Model application niche analysis: Assessing the transferability and generalizability of ecological models

EPA Science Inventory

The use of models by ecologist and environmental managers, to inform environmental management and decision-making, has grown exponentially in the past 50 years. Due to logistical, economical and theoretical benefits, model users are frequently transferring preexisting models to n...
The Impending Revolution in School Business Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, H. Thomas

The development of logically sophisticated analytical models in a growing number of fields has placed new emphasis on efficiency in school management. Recent systems models guiding the longrun analysis of school management in terms of efficiency--through cost-benefit studies, systems analysis, and program planning and budgeting systems--are in…
Balancing Work Responsibilities and Family Needs: The Federal Civil Service Response

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-11-01

Since better part-time benefits package than some other our analysis unco’ ered no substantive drawbacks employers . Federal part-timers are typically...Government can improve its status as a/model employer in the work and family benefits area. ( o/ I hope you will find this report useful as you develop plans...Xiii OVERVIEW "Cafeteria" Benefits : Conclusions: The Government does not offer a "cafeteria" As an employer , the Federal Government has a benefits
Economic analysis of interventions to improve village chicken production in Myanmar.

PubMed

Henning, J; Morton, J; Pym, R; Hla, T; Sunn, K; Meers, J

2013-07-01

A cost-benefit analysis using deterministic and stochastic modelling was conducted to identify the net benefits for households that adopt (1) vaccination of individual birds against Newcastle disease (ND) or (2) improved management of chick rearing by providing coops for the protection of chicks from predation and chick starter feed inside a creep feeder to support chicks' nutrition in village chicken flocks in Myanmar. Partial budgeting was used to assess the additional costs and benefits associated with each of the two interventions tested relative to neither strategy. In the deterministic model, over the first 3 years after the introduction of the interventions, the cumulative sum of the net differences from neither strategy was 13,189Kyat for ND vaccination and 77,645Kyat for improved chick management (effective exchange rate in 2005: 1000Kyat=1$US). Both interventions were also profitable after discounting over a 10-year period; Net Present Values for ND vaccination and improved chick management were 30,791 and 167,825Kyat, respectively. The Benefit-Cost Ratio for ND vaccination was very high (28.8). This was lower for improved chick management, due to greater costs of the intervention, but still favourable at 4.7. Using both interventions concurrently yielded a Net Present Value of 470,543Kyat and a Benefit-Cost Ratio of 11.2 over the 10-year period in the deterministic model. Using the stochastic model, for the first 3 years following the introduction of the interventions, the mean cumulative sums of the net difference were similar to those values obtained from the deterministic model. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the cumulative net differences were strongly influenced by grower bird sale income, particularly under improved chick management. The effects of the strategies on odds of households selling and consuming birds after 7 months, and numbers of birds being sold or consumed after this period also influenced profitability. Cost variations for equipment used under improved chick management were not markedly associated with profitability. Net Present Values and Benefit-Cost Ratios discounted over a 10-year period were also similar to the deterministic model when mean values obtained through stochastic modelling were used. In summary, the study showed that ND vaccination and improved chick management can improve the viability and profitability of village chicken production in Myanmar. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Application of life cycle assessment for an evaluation of wastewater treatment and reuse project--case study of Xi'an, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Q H; Wang, X C; Xiong, J Q; Chen, R; Cao, B

2010-03-01

In order to illuminate the benefit of a wastewater treatment and reuse project, a life cycle assessment (LCA) model was proposed by combining the process-based LCA and the input-output based LCA in one framework and using energy consumption as the sole parameter for quantitative evaluation of the project. The life cycle consumption was evaluated mainly by life cycle inventory (LCI) analysis taking into account the construction phase, operation phase and demolishment phase of the project. For evaluating the life cycle benefit of treated water reuse, attention was paid to the decrease of secondary effluent discharge and water saving. As a result of comprehensive LCA analysis of a case project in Xi'an, China, it was understood that the life cycle benefit gained from treated wastewater reuse much surpassed the life cycle energy consumption. The advantage of wastewater treatment and reuse was well shown by LCA analysis using the proposed model. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Current concepts of Harm–Benefit Analysis of Animal Experiments – Report from the AALAS–FELASA Working Group on Harm–Benefit Analysis – Part 1

PubMed Central

Brønstad, Aurora; Newcomer, Christian E; Decelle, Thierry; Everitt, Jeffrey I; Guillen, Javier; Laber, Kathy

2016-01-01

International regulations and guidelines strongly suggest that the use of animal models in scientific research should be initiated only after the authority responsible for the review of animal studies has concluded a well-thought-out harm–benefit analysis (HBA) and deemed the project to be appropriate. Although the process for conducting HBAs may not be new, the relevant factors and algorithms used in conducting them during the review process are deemed to be poorly defined or lacking by committees in many institutions. This paper presents the current concept of HBAs based on a literature review. References on cost or risk benefit from clinical trials and other industries are also included. Several approaches to HBA have been discovered including algorithms, graphic presentations and generic processes. The aim of this study is to better aid and harmonize understanding of the concepts of ‘harm’, ‘benefit’ and ‘harm–benefit analysis’. PMID:27188275

A method for the inclusion of physical activity-related health benefits in cost-benefit analysis of built environment initiatives.

PubMed

Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Gunn, Lucy; Giles-Corti, Billie; Shiell, Alan; Lennert Veerman, J

2018-01-01

The built environment has a significant influence on population levels of physical activity (PA) and therefore health. However, PA-related health benefits are seldom considered in transport and urban planning (i.e. built environment interventions) cost-benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis implies that the benefits of any initiative are valued in monetary terms to make them commensurable with costs. This leads to the need for monetised values of the health benefits of PA. The aim of this study was to explore a method for the incorporation of monetised PA-related health benefits in cost-benefit analysis of built environment interventions. Firstly, we estimated the change in population level of PA attributable to a change in the built environment due to the intervention. Then, changes in population levels of PA were translated into monetary values. For the first step we used estimates from the literature for the association of built environment features with physical activity outcomes. For the second step we used the multi-cohort proportional multi-state life table model to predict changes in health-adjusted life years and health care costs as a function of changes in PA. Finally, we monetised health-adjusted life years using the value of a statistical life year. Future research could adapt these methods to assess the health and economic impacts of specific urban development scenarios by working in collaboration with urban planners. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Cost-Benefit Arbitration Between Multiple Reinforcement-Learning Systems.

PubMed

Kool, Wouter; Gershman, Samuel J; Cushman, Fiery A

2017-09-01

Human behavior is sometimes determined by habit and other times by goal-directed planning. Modern reinforcement-learning theories formalize this distinction as a competition between a computationally cheap but inaccurate model-free system that gives rise to habits and a computationally expensive but accurate model-based system that implements planning. It is unclear, however, how people choose to allocate control between these systems. Here, we propose that arbitration occurs by comparing each system's task-specific costs and benefits. To investigate this proposal, we conducted two experiments showing that people increase model-based control when it achieves greater accuracy than model-free control, and especially when the rewards of accurate performance are amplified. In contrast, they are insensitive to reward amplification when model-based and model-free control yield equivalent accuracy. This suggests that humans adaptively balance habitual and planned action through on-line cost-benefit analysis.
Evaluation of the Impact, Costs and Benefits of the Albuquerque Model Cities Library Materials and Cultural Centers. Final Report. Volume I and II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zink, Lee B.; And Others

The purpose of this study was the examination of the Albuquerque Model Cities Library Materials and Cultural Centers and of their impact upon the community they serve. This was not a traditional cost/benefit study although it contains many of the aspects of such an analysis. The area served by the Centers is an area of relatively poor persons of…
Models For Assessing The Impacts And The Potential Benefits Of Intelligent Transportation Systems, A Working Paper, Draft

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-15

THE ABSENCE OF SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIETAL BENEFITS AND COSTS OF INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (ITS) TECHNOLOGIES -- IN THE SHORT-TERM AS WELL AS LONG TERM -- IS WELL RECOGNIZED IN THE ITS COMMUNITY. THIS UNMET NEED HAS BEEN RECOGNIZED, ...
Phoenix metropolitan model deployment initiative : evaluation report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS)Testbeds can make significant contributions in identifying the benefits of more effective, more active systems management, resulting from integrating transformative applications enabled by new data from wirelessl...
Cost-benefit analysis of riparian protection in an eastern Canadian watershed.

PubMed

Trenholm, Ryan; Lantz, Van; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto; Little, Shawn

2013-02-15

Forested riparian buffers have proved to be an effective management practice that helps maintain ecological goods and services in watersheds. In this study, we assessed the non-market benefits and opportunity costs associated with implementing these buffers in an eastern Canadian watershed using contingent valuation and wood supply modeling methods, respectively. A number of buffer scenarios were considered, including 30 and 60 m buffers on woodlots and on all land (including woodlots, agricultural, and residential lands) in the watershed. Household annual WTP estimates ranged from -$6.80 to $42.85, and total present value benefits ranged from -$11.7 to $121.7 million (CDN 2007), depending on the buffer scenario, affected population, time horizon, and econometric modeling assumptions considered. Opportunity cost estimates range from $1.3 to $10.4 million in present value terms, depending on silvicultural and agriculture land rental rate assumptions. Overall, we found that the net present value of riparian buffers was positive for the majority of scenarios and assumptions. Some exceptions were found under more conservative benefit, and higher unit cost, assumptions. These results provide decision makers with data on stated benefits and opportunity costs of riparian buffers, as well as insight into the importance of modeling assumptions when using this framework of analysis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modelling the effects and economics of managed realignment on the cycling and storage of nutrients, carbon and sediments in the Blackwater estuary UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, D.; Burgess, D.; Jickells, T.; Andrews, J.; Cave, R.; Turner, R. K.; Aldridge, J.; Parker, E. R.; Young, E.

2007-07-01

A hydrodynamic model is developed for the Blackwater estuary (UK) and used to estimate nitrate removal by denitrification. Using the model, sediment analysis and estimates of sedimentation rates, we estimate changes in estuarine denitrification and intertidal carbon and nutrient storage and associated value of habitat created under a scenario of extensive managed realignment. We then use this information, together with engineering and land costs, to conduct a cost benefit analysis of the managed realignment. This demonstrates that over a 50-100 year timescale the value of the habitat created and carbon buried is sufficient to make the large scale managed realignment cost effective. The analysis reveals that carbon and nutrient storage plus habitat creation represent major and quantifiable benefits of realignment. The methodology described here can be readily transferred to other coastal systems.
Value flow mapping: Using networks to inform stakeholder analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cameron, Bruce G.; Crawley, Edward F.; Loureiro, Geilson; Rebentisch, Eric S.

2008-02-01

Stakeholder theory has garnered significant interest from the corporate community, but has proved difficult to apply to large government programs. A detailed value flow exercise was conducted to identify the value delivery mechanisms among stakeholders for the current Vision for Space Exploration. We propose a method for capturing stakeholder needs that explicitly recognizes the outcomes required of the value creating organization. The captured stakeholder needs are then translated into input-output models for each stakeholder, which are then aggregated into a network model. Analysis of this network suggests that benefits are infrequently linked to the root provider of value. Furthermore, it is noted that requirements should not only be written to influence the organization's outputs, but also to influence the propagation of benefit further along the value chain. A number of future applications of this model to systems architecture and requirement analysis are discussed.
Costs and benefits of direct-to-consumer advertising: the case of depression.

PubMed

Block, Adam E

2007-01-01

Direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) is legal in the US and New Zealand, but illegal in the rest of the world. Little or no research exists on the social welfare implications of DTCA. To quantify the total costs and benefits associated with both appropriate and inappropriate care due to DTCA, for the case of depression. A cost-benefit model was developed using parameter estimates from available survey, epidemiological and experimental data. The model estimates the total benefits and costs (year 2002 values) of new appropriate and inappropriate care stimulated by DTCA for depression. Uncertainty in model parameters is addressed with sensitivity analyses. This study provides evidence that 94% of new antidepressant use due to DTCA is from non-depressed individuals. However, the average health benefit to each new depressed user is 63-fold greater than the cost per treatment, creating a positive overall social welfare effect; a net benefit of >72 million US dollars. This analysis suggests that DTCA may lead to antidepressant treatment in 15-fold as many non-depressed people as depressed people. However, the costs of treating non-depressed people may be vastly outweighed by the much larger benefit accruing to treated depressed individuals. The cost-benefit ratio can be improved through better targeting of advertisements and higher quality treatment of depression.
Design of Training Systems. Computerization of the Educational Technology Assessment Model. Volume 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duffy, Larry B.; And Others

The Educational Technology Assessment Model (ETAM) is a set of comprehensive procedures and variables for the analysis, synthesis, and decision making, in regard to the benefits, costs, and risks associated with introducing technical innovations in education and training. This final report summarizes the analysis, design, and development…
U.S. 75 Dallas, Texas, Model Validation and Calibration Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

This report presents the model validation and calibration results of the Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) for the U.S. 75 Corridor in Dallas, Texas. The purpose of the project was to estimate the benefits ...
Net clinical benefit of new oral anticoagulants (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban) versus no treatment in a 'real world' atrial fibrillation population: a modelling analysis based on a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Banerjee, Amitava; Lane, Deirdre A; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Lip, Gregory Y H

2012-03-01

The concept of net clinical benefit has been used to quantify the balance between risk of ischaemic stroke (IS) and risk of intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) with the use oral anticoagulant therapy (OAC) in the setting of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF), and has shown that patients at highest risk of stroke and thromboembolism gain the greatest benefit from OAC with warfarin. There are no data for the new OACs, that is, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban, as yet. We calculated the net clinical benefit balancing IS against ICH using data from the Danish National Patient Registry on patients with non-valvular AF between 1997-2008, for dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban on the basis of recent clinical trial outcome data for these new OACs. In patients with CHADS(2)=0 but at high bleeding risk, apixaban and dabigatran 110 mg bid had a positive net clinical benefit. At CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc=1, apixaban and both doses of dabigatran (110 mg and 150 mg bid) had a positive net clinical benefit. In patients with CHADS(2) score≥1 or CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc≥2, the three new OACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban) appear superior to warfarin for net clinical benefit, regardless of risk of bleeding. When risk of bleeding and stroke are both high, all three new drugs appear to have a greater net clinical benefit than warfarin. In the absence of head-to-head trials for these new OACs, our analysis may help inform decision making processes when all these new OACs become available to clinicians for stroke prevention in AF. Using 'real world' data, our modelling analysis has shown that when the risk of bleeding and stroke are both high, all three new drugs appear to have a greater net clinical benefit compared to warfarin.
Economic impact of providing workplace influenza vaccination. A model and case study application at a Brazilian pharma-chemical company.

PubMed

Burckel, E; Ashraf, T; de Sousa Filho, J P; Forleo Neto, E; Guarino, H; Yauti, C; Barreto F de, B; Champion, L

1999-11-01

To develop and apply a model to assess the economic value of a workplace influenza programme from the perspective of the employer. The model calculated the avoided costs of influenza, including treatment costs, lost productivity, lost worker added value and the cost of replacing workers. Subtracted from this benefit were the costs associated with a vaccination programme, including administrative costs, the time to give the vaccine, and lost productivity due to adverse reactions. The framework of the model can be applied to any company to estimate the cost-benefit of an influenza immunisation programme. The model developed was applied to 4030 workers in the core divisions of a Brazilian pharma-chemical company. The model determined a net benefit of $US121,441 [129,335 Brazilian reals ($Brz)], or $US35.45 ($Brz37.75) per vaccinated employee (1997 values). The cost-benefit ratio was 1:2.47. The calculations were subjected to a battery of 1-way and 2-way sensitivity analyses that determined that net benefit would be retained as long as the vaccine cost remained below $US45.40 ($Brz48.40) or the vaccine was at least 32.5% effective. Other alterations would retain a net benefit as well, including several combinations of incidence rate and vaccine effectiveness. The analysis suggests that providing an influenza vaccination programme can incur a substantial net benefit for an employer, although the size of the benefit will depend upon who normally absorbs the costs of treating influenza and compensating workers for lost work time due to illness, as well as the type of company in which the immunisation programme is applied.
Prognostic factors and predictors of sorafenib benefit in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of two phase III studies.

PubMed

Bruix, Jordi; Cheng, Ann-Lii; Meinhardt, Gerold; Nakajima, Keiko; De Sanctis, Yoriko; Llovet, Josep

2017-11-01

Sorafenib, an oral multikinase inhibitor, significantly prolonged overall survival (OS) vs. placebo in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in two phase III studies, SHARP (Sorafenib HCC Assessment Randomized Protocol) and Asia Pacific (AP). To assess prognostic factors for HCC and predictive factors of sorafenib benefit, we conducted a pooled exploratory analysis from these placebo-controlled phase III studies. To identify potential prognostic factors for OS, univariate and multivariate (MV) analyses were performed for baseline variables by Cox proportional hazards model. Hazard ratios (HRs) and median OS were evaluated across pooled subgroups. To assess factors predictive of sorafenib benefit, the interaction term between treatment for each subgroup was evaluated by Cox proportional hazard model. In 827 patients (448 sorafenib; 379 placebo) analyzed, strong prognostic factors for poorer OS identified from MV analysis in both treatment arms were presence of macroscopic vascular invasion (MVI), high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; ⩽ vs. >median [3.1]). Sorafenib OS benefit was consistently observed across all subgroups. Significantly greater OS sorafenib benefit vs. placebo was observed in patients without extrahepatic spread (EHS; HR, 0.55 vs. 0.84), with hepatitis C virus (HCV) (HR, 0.47 vs. 0.81), and a low NLR (HR, 0.59 vs. 0.84). In this exploratory analysis, presence of MVI, high AFP, and high NLR were prognostic factors of poorer OS. Sorafenib benefit was consistently observed irrespective of prognostic factors. Lack of EHS, HCV, and lower NLR were predictive of a greater OS benefit with sorafenib. This exploratory pooled analysis showed that treatment with sorafenib provides a survival benefit in all subgroups of patients with HCC; however, the magnitude of benefit is greater in patients with disease confined to the liver (without extrahepatic spread), or in those with hepatitis C virus, or a lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, an indicator of inflammation status. These results help inform the prognosis of patients receiving sorafenib therapy and provide further refinements for the design of trials testing new agents vs. sorafenib. Clinical Trial Numbers: NCT00105443 and NCT00492752. Copyright © 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Costs and benefits of low-sulphur fuel standard for Baltic Sea shipping.

PubMed

Antturi, Jim; Hänninen, Otto; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Johansson, Lasse; Prank, Marje; Sofiev, Mikhail; Ollikainen, Markku

2016-12-15

The maximum allowable fuel sulphur content for shipping in the Baltic Sea dropped from 1%S to 0.1%S in 1 January 2015. We provide a cost-benefit analysis of the sulphur reduction policy in the Baltic Sea Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA). We calculated the abatement costs based on shipowners' optimal decision-making in choosing between low-sulphur fuel and a sulphur scrubber, and the benefits were modelled through a high-resolution impact pathway analysis, which took into account the formation and dispersion of the emissions, and considered the positive health impacts resulting from lowered ambient PM 2.5 concentrations. Our basic result indicates that for the Baltic Sea only, the latest sulphur regulation is not cost-effective. The expected annual cost is roughly €465 M and benefit 2200 saved Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) or monetized €105 M. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the benefits yet have a potential to exceed the costs. The analysis neither takes into account the acidifying impact of sulphur nor the impact North Sea shipping has on the cost-benefit ratio. Lastly, a similar approach is found highly recommendable to study the implications of the upcoming Tier III NO x standard for shipping. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Model-Based Systems Engineering With the Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) Applied to NASA Mission Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munoz Fernandez, Michela Miche

2014-01-01

The potential of Model Model Systems Engineering (MBSE) using the Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) applied to space systems will be described. AADL modeling is applicable to real-time embedded systems- the types of systems NASA builds. A case study with the Juno mission to Jupiter showcases how this work would enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout their life cycle from design to flight operations.
Can cloud computing benefit health services? - a SWOT analysis.

PubMed

Kuo, Mu-Hsing; Kushniruk, Andre; Borycki, Elizabeth

2011-01-01

In this paper, we discuss cloud computing, the current state of cloud computing in healthcare, and the challenges and opportunities of adopting cloud computing in healthcare. A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was used to evaluate the feasibility of adopting this computing model in healthcare. The paper concludes that cloud computing could have huge benefits for healthcare but there are a number of issues that will need to be addressed before its widespread use in healthcare.
Geomagnetic field models for satellite angular motion studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ovchinnikov, M. Yu.; Penkov, V. I.; Roldugin, D. S.; Pichuzhkina, A. V.

2018-03-01

Four geomagnetic field models are discussed: IGRF, inclined, direct and simplified dipoles. Geomagnetic induction vector expressions are provided in different reference frames. Induction vector behavior is compared for different models. Models applicability for the analysis of satellite motion is studied from theoretical and engineering perspectives. Relevant satellite dynamics analysis cases using analytical and numerical techniques are provided. These cases demonstrate the benefit of a certain model for a specific dynamics study. Recommendations for models usage are summarized in the end.
Game analysis and benefit allocation in international projects among owner, supervisor and contractor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Hao; Wang, Yong; Guo, Sini; Xu, Xiaofeng; Che, Cheng

2016-04-01

International projects are different from general domestic ones. In order to analyse the differences, a tripartite game model is built up to describe the relationship among owner, supervisor and general contractor, and some measures are given for the owner to more effectively complete the project. In addition, a project schedule selection model is formulated and a new benefit allocation method is proposed by introducing a new modified Shapley value with weighted factor.
A Comparative Analysis of Bicycle Lanes Versus Wide Curb Lanes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS) Testbeds can make significant contributions in identifying the benefits of more effective, more active systems management, resulting from integrating transformative applications enabled by new data from wireless...

Life Cycle Energy Analysis of Reclaimed Water Reuse Projects in Beijing.

PubMed

Fan, Yupeng; Guo, Erhui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Chang, Andrew C; Qiao, Qi; Kang, Peng

2018-01-01

To illustrate the benefits of water reuse project, the process-based life cycle analysis (LCA) could be combined with input-output LCA to evaluate the water reuse project. Energy is the only evaluation parameter used in this study. Life cycle assessment of all energy inputs (LCEA) is completed mainly by the life cycle inventory (LCI), taking into account the full life cycle including the construction, the operation, and the demolition phase of the project. Assessment of benefit from water reuse during the life cycle should focus on wastewater discharge reduction and water-saving benefits. The results of LCEA of Beijing water reuse project built in 2014 in a comprehensive way shows that the benefits obtained from the reclaimed water reuse far exceed the life cycle energy consumption. In this paper, the authors apply the LCEA model to estimate the benefits of reclaimed water reuse projects quantitatively.
Do Generous Unemployment Benefit Programs Reduce Suicide Rates? A State Fixed-Effect Analysis Covering 1968–2008

PubMed Central

Cylus, Jonathan; Glymour, M. Maria; Avendano, Mauricio

2014-01-01

The recent economic recession has led to increases in suicide, but whether US state unemployment insurance programs ameliorate this association has not been examined. Exploiting US state variations in the generosity of benefit programs between 1968 and 2008, we tested the hypothesis that more generous unemployment benefit programs reduce the impact of economic downturns on suicide. Using state linear fixed-effect models, we found a negative additive interaction between unemployment rates and benefits among the US working-age (20–64 years) population (β = −0.57, 95% confidence interval: −0.86, −0.27; P < 0.001). The finding of a negative additive interaction was robust across multiple model specifications. Our results suggest that the impact of unemployment rates on suicide is offset by the presence of generous state unemployment benefit programs, though estimated effects are small in magnitude. PMID:24939978
An Economic Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act 1970 TO 1990: Revised Report of Results and Findings (2002)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The analyses covered in this report examine the consequences of these costs and benefits for overall economic performance and welfare. They are based on the application of a multi-sector, inter-temporal general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy.
Lung Cancer Screening May Benefit Those at Highest Risk

Cancer.gov

People at the highest risk for lung cancer, based on a risk model, may be more likely to benefit from screening with low-dose CT, a new analysis suggests. The study authors believe the findings may better define who should undergo lung cancer screening, as this Cancer Currents blog post explains.
Family Decision Making: Benefits to Persons with Developmental Disabilities and Their Family Members

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neely-Barnes, Susan; Graff, J. Carolyn; Marcenko, Maureen; Weber, Lisa

2008-01-01

Family involvement in planning and choosing services has become a key intervention concept in developmental disability services. This study (N = 547) modeled patterns of family decision making and assessed benefits to persons with developmental disabilities (DDs) and their family members. A latent profile analysis identified 4 classes that were…
A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

PubMed

de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

2016-04-01

A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

PubMed

Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

2014-01-01

To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.
Cost Benefit Analysis of Two Policy Options for Cannabis: Status Quo and Legalisation

PubMed Central

Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

2014-01-01

Aims To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised–regulated option was conducted. Method A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). Findings The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised–regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised–regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Conclusion Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case. PMID:24755942
Complex Networks/Foundations of Information Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-06

the benefit of feedback or dynamic correlations in coding and protocol. Using Renyi correlation analysis and entropy to model this wider class of...dynamic heterogeneous conditions. Lizhong Zheng, MIT Renyi Channel Correlation Analysis (connected to geometric curvature) Network Channel
Optimal water resources management and system benefit for the Marcellus shale-gas reservoir in Pennsylvania and West Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Xi; He, Li; Lu, Hongwei; Chen, Yizhong; Ren, Lixia

2016-09-01

A major concern associated with current shale-gas extraction is high consumption of water resources. However, decision-making problems regarding water consumption and shale-gas extraction have not yet been solved through systematic approaches. This study develops a new bilevel optimization problem based on goals at two different levels: minimization of water demands at the lower level and maximization of system benefit at the upper level. The model is used to solve a real-world case across Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Results show that surface water would be the largest contributor to gas production (with over 80.00% from 2015 to 2030) and groundwater occupies for the least proportion (with less than 2.00% from 2015 to 2030) in both districts over the planning span. Comparative analysis between the proposed model and conventional single-level models indicates that the bilevel model could provide coordinated schemes to comprehensively attain the goals from both water resources authorities and energy sectors. Sensitivity analysis shows that the change of water use of per unit gas production (WU) has significant effects upon system benefit, gas production and pollutants (i.e., barium, chloride and bromide) discharge, but not significantly changes water demands.
Energy and life-cycle cost analysis of a six-story office building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turiel, I.

1981-10-01

An energy analysis computer program, DOE-2, was used to compute annual energy use for a typical office building as originally designed and with several energy conserving design modifications. The largest energy use reductions were obtained with the incorporation of daylighting techniques, the use of double pane windows, night temperature setback, and the reduction of artificial lighting levels. A life-cycle cost model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the design modifications discussed. The model incorporates such features as inclusion of taxes, depreciation, and financing of conservation investments. The energy conserving strategies are ranked according to economic criteria such as net present benefit, discounted payback period, and benefit to cost ratio.
A Cost Benefit Analysis of an Active Travel Intervention with Health and Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits.

PubMed

Chapman, Ralph; Keall, Michael; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Grams, Mark; Witten, Karen; Randal, Edward; Woodward, Alistair

2018-05-11

Active travel (walking and cycling) is beneficial for people’s health and has many co-benefits, such as reducing motor vehicle congestion and pollution in urban areas. There have been few robust evaluations of active travel, and very few studies have valued health and emissions outcomes. The ACTIVE before-and-after quasi-experimental study estimated the net benefits of health and other outcomes from New Zealand’s Model Communities Programme using an empirical analysis comparing two intervention cities with two control cities. The Programme funded investment in cycle paths, other walking and cycling facilities, cycle parking, ‘shared spaces’, media campaigns and events, such as ‘Share the Road’, and cycle-skills training. Using the modified Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model, the Programme’s net economic benefits were estimated from the changes in use of active travel modes. Annual benefits for health in the intervention cities were estimated at 34.4 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and two lives saved due to reductions in cardiac disease, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disease. Reductions in transport-related carbon emissions were also estimated and valued. Using a discount rate of 3.5%, the estimated benefit/cost ratio was 11:1 and was robust to sensitivity testing. It is concluded that when concerted investment is made in active travel in a city, there is likely to be a measurable, positive return on investment.
A Cost Benefit Analysis of an Active Travel Intervention with Health and Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits

PubMed Central

Grams, Mark; Witten, Karen; Woodward, Alistair

2018-01-01

Active travel (walking and cycling) is beneficial for people’s health and has many co-benefits, such as reducing motor vehicle congestion and pollution in urban areas. There have been few robust evaluations of active travel, and very few studies have valued health and emissions outcomes. The ACTIVE before-and-after quasi-experimental study estimated the net benefits of health and other outcomes from New Zealand’s Model Communities Programme using an empirical analysis comparing two intervention cities with two control cities. The Programme funded investment in cycle paths, other walking and cycling facilities, cycle parking, ‘shared spaces’, media campaigns and events, such as ‘Share the Road’, and cycle-skills training. Using the modified Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model, the Programme’s net economic benefits were estimated from the changes in use of active travel modes. Annual benefits for health in the intervention cities were estimated at 34.4 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and two lives saved due to reductions in cardiac disease, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disease. Reductions in transport-related carbon emissions were also estimated and valued. Using a discount rate of 3.5%, the estimated benefit/cost ratio was 11:1 and was robust to sensitivity testing. It is concluded that when concerted investment is made in active travel in a city, there is likely to be a measurable, positive return on investment. PMID:29751618
FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : carrier intervention effectiveness model, version 1.0 : [analysis brief].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

The Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM) : provides the Federal Motor Carrier Safety : Administration (FMCSA) with a tool for measuring : the safety benefits of carrier interventions conducted : under the Compliance, Safety, Accountability...
Cost Of Compliance On Munitions Consolidation From Lualualei To West Loch

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

from the perspective of the Department of Defense in order to capture all costs and benefits associated with the Army and Navy, the main stakeholders...weaknesses of the available alternative options. The model identifies tangible costs and benefits to estimate a net present value for each option. To...the robustness of the average net present value and to show the probability of net costs exceeding the net benefits . The analysis conducted in this
Requirements analysis, domain knowledge, and design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potts, Colin

1988-01-01

Two improvements to current requirements analysis practices are suggested: domain modeling, and the systematic application of analysis heuristics. Domain modeling is the representation of relevant application knowledge prior to requirements specification. Artificial intelligence techniques may eventually be applicable for domain modeling. In the short term, however, restricted domain modeling techniques, such as that in JSD, will still be of practical benefit. Analysis heuristics are standard patterns of reasoning about the requirements. They usually generate questions of clarification or issues relating to completeness. Analysis heuristics can be represented and therefore systematically applied in an issue-based framework. This is illustrated by an issue-based analysis of JSD's domain modeling and functional specification heuristics. They are discussed in the context of the preliminary design of simple embedded systems.
Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia

PubMed Central

Cook, David C.; Liu, Shuang; Edwards, Jacqueline; Villalta, Oscar N.; Aurambout, Jean-Philippe; Kriticos, Darren J.; Drenth, Andre; De Barro, Paul J.

2012-01-01

Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response. PMID:22879960
Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

2009-12-01

This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.
Gait characterization in golden retriever muscular dystrophy dogs using linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Fraysse, Bodvaël; Barthélémy, Inès; Qannari, El Mostafa; Rouger, Karl; Thorin, Chantal; Blot, Stéphane; Le Guiner, Caroline; Chérel, Yan; Hogrel, Jean-Yves

2017-04-12

Accelerometric analysis of gait abnormalities in golden retriever muscular dystrophy (GRMD) dogs is of limited sensitivity, and produces highly complex data. The use of discriminant analysis may enable simpler and more sensitive evaluation of treatment benefits in this important preclinical model. Accelerometry was performed twice monthly between the ages of 2 and 12 months on 8 healthy and 20 GRMD dogs. Seven accelerometric parameters were analysed using linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Manipulation of the dependent and independent variables produced three distinct models. The ability of each model to detect gait alterations and their pattern change with age was tested using a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Selecting genotype (healthy or GRMD) as the dependent variable resulted in a model (Model 1) allowing a good discrimination between the gait phenotype of GRMD and healthy dogs. However, this model was not sufficiently representative of the disease progression. In Model 2, age in months was added as a supplementary dependent variable (GRMD_2 to GRMD_12 and Healthy_2 to Healthy_9.5), resulting in a high overall misclassification rate (83.2%). To improve accuracy, a third model (Model 3) was created in which age was also included as an explanatory variable. This resulted in an overall misclassification rate lower than 12%. Model 3 was evaluated using blinded data pertaining to 81 healthy and GRMD dogs. In all but one case, the model correctly matched gait phenotype to the actual genotype. Finally, we used Model 3 to reanalyse data from a previous study regarding the effects of immunosuppressive treatments on muscular dystrophy in GRMD dogs. Our model identified significant effect of immunosuppressive treatments on gait quality, corroborating the original findings, with the added advantages of direct statistical analysis with greater sensitivity and more comprehensible data representation. Gait analysis using LDA allows for improved analysis of accelerometry data by applying a decision-making analysis approach to the evaluation of preclinical treatment benefits in GRMD dogs.
Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drysdale, Alan; Thomas, Mark; Fresa, Mark; Wheeler, Ray

1992-01-01

Attention is given to CELSS, a critical technology for the Space Exploration Initiative. OCAM (object-oriented CELSS analysis and modeling) models carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen recycling. Multiple crops and plant types can be simulated. Resource recovery options from inedible biomass include leaching, enzyme treatment, aerobic digestion, and mushroom and fish growth. The benefit of using many small crops overlapping in time, instead of a single large crop, is demonstrated. Unanticipated results include startup transients which reduce the benefit of multiple small crops. The relative contributions of mass, energy, and manpower to system cost are analyzed in order to determine appropriate research directions.

ENGINEERING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A PROGRAM FOR ARTIFICIAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichard, Eric G.; Bredehoeft, John D.

1984-01-01

This study describes and demonstrates two alternate methods for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of artificial groundwater recharge using percolation ponds. The first analysis considers the benefits to be the reduction of pumping lifts and land subsidence; the second considers benefits as the alternative costs of a comparable surface delivery system. Example computations are carried out for an existing artificial recharge program in Santa Clara Valley in California. A computer groundwater model is used to estimate both the average long term and the drought period effects of artificial recharge in the study area. Results indicate that the costs of artificial recharge are considerably smaller than the alternative costs of an equivalent surface system. Refs.
Analysis of the dismounted motorist and road-worker model pedestrian safety regulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-08-01

Two pedestrian model regulations previously developed by NHTSA were studied to determine their potential safety benefits. One regulation was concerned with the disabled-vehicle situation and called on motorists to position themselves and their vehicl...
FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : carrier intervention effectiveness Model, version 1.1, analysis brief.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-11-01

The Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM) provides the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) with a tool for measuring the safety benefits of carrier interventions conducted under the Compliance, Safety, Accountability (CSA) e...
Low energy stage study. Volume 4: Cost benefits analysis and recommendations. [orbital launching of space shuttle payloads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The costs and benefits of existing/planned systems, new propulsion concepts, and adaptations of existing/planned systems (as supported by Orbiter interface requirements and operations requirements) were quantified. Scenarios of these propulsion approaches were established which accommodate the low energy regime as defined by the new low energy payload mission model. These scenarios were screened on a cost and then a benefits basis. A propulsion approach comprising existing/planned systems and a new propulsion concept were selected as the most cost effective approach to accommodate the model payloads and the low energy regime they represent. Key cost drivers and sensitivity trends were identified. All costs were derived in 1977 dollars.
Integrated application of river water quality modelling and cost-benefit analysis to optimize the environmental economical value based on various aquatic waste load reduction strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chen-Yu; Fan, Chihhao

2017-04-01

To assure the river water quality, the Taiwan government establishes many pollution control strategies and expends huge monetary investment. Despite all these efforts, many rivers still suffer from severe pollution because of massive discharges of domestic and industrial wastewater without proper treatment. A comprehensive evaluation tool seems required to assess the suitability of water pollution control strategies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to quantify the potential strategic benefits by applying the water quality modelling integrated with cost-benefit analysis to simulating scenarios based on regional development planning. The Erhjen Creek is selected as the study example because it is a major river in southern Taiwan, and its riverine environment impacts a great deal to the neighboring people. For strategy assessment, we established QUAL2k model of Erhjen Creek and conducted the cost-benefit analyses according the proposed strategies. In the water quality simulation, HEC-RAS was employed to calculate the hydraulic parameters and dilution impact of tidal effect in the downstream section. Daily pollution loadings were obtained from the Water Pollution Control Information System maintained by Taiwan EPA, and the wastewater delivery ratios were calculated by comparing the occurrence of pollution loadings with the monitoring data. In the cost-benefit analysis, we adopted the market valuation method, setting a period of 65 years for analysis and discount rate at 2.59%. Capital investments were the costs of design, construction, operation and maintenance for each project in Erhjen Creek catchment. In model calibration and model verification, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) were calculated to be 21.4% and 25.5%, respectively, which met the prescribed acceptable criteria of 50%. This model was applied to simulating water quality based on implementing various pollution control policies and engineering projects in the Erhjen Creek. The overall improvements in BOD, SS and NH3-N were estimated as 36.2%, 27.7% and 29.2%, respectively. The net present value (i.e., economical-based environmental impact) becomes positive in the sixtieth year following the original government planning. We designed two scenarios for further comparison: (i) treatment efficiency improvement of pollution control facilities, and (ii) biogas-based power generation using livestock manure. If government budget is not a limiting factor, improving the efficiency of sewage treatment plants can make the occurrence of balance between payments and revenues (i.e., net present value in this study) three years earlier. For the biogas-based power generation scenario, if all pig farms with livestock number >2000 install the on-site power generation equipment, BOD will further improve by 9% and the time span of payback period will be shortened by 1 year. If all the manure waste from pig-farms is collected for subsequent electricity generation, the BOD river pollution index is estimated to improve to lightly-polluted category for more than half the length of Erhjen Creek. In short, water quality modelling technique not only can assess the contributions of related projects, but establish a practical pollution reduction strategy using cost-benefit analysis, which allows decision-maker to find a suitable pollution reduction plan to exhibit most benefits in river water quality.
Application of the malaria management model to the analysis of costs and benefits of DDT versus non-DDT malaria control.

PubMed

Pedercini, Matteo; Movilla Blanco, Santiago; Kopainsky, Birgit

2011-01-01

DDT is considered to be the most cost-effective insecticide for combating malaria. However, it is also the most environmentally persistent and can pose risks to human health when sprayed indoors. Therefore, the use of DDT for vector control remains controversial. In this paper we develop a computer-based simulation model to assess some of the costs and benefits of the continued use of DDT for Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) versus its rapid phase out. We apply the prototype model to the aggregated sub Saharan African region. For putting the question about the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out into perspective we calculate the same costs and benefits for alternative combinations of integrated vector management interventions. Our simulation results confirm that the current mix of integrated vector management interventions with DDT as the main insecticide is cheaper than the same mix with alternative insecticides when only direct costs are considered. However, combinations with a stronger focus on insecticide-treated bed nets and environmental management show higher levels of cost-effectiveness than interventions with a focus on IRS. Thus, this focus would also allow phasing out DDT in a cost-effective manner. Although a rapid phase out of DDT for IRS is the most expensive of the tested intervention combinations it can have important economic benefits in addition to health and environmental impacts that are difficult to assess in monetary terms. Those economic benefits captured by the model include the avoided risk of losses in agricultural exports. The prototype simulation model illustrates how a computer-based scenario analysis tool can inform debates on malaria control policies in general and on the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out in specific. Simulation models create systematic mechanisms for analyzing alternative interventions and making informed trade offs.
Application of the Malaria Management Model to the Analysis of Costs and Benefits of DDT versus Non-DDT Malaria Control

PubMed Central

Pedercini, Matteo; Movilla Blanco, Santiago; Kopainsky, Birgit

2011-01-01

Introduction DDT is considered to be the most cost-effective insecticide for combating malaria. However, it is also the most environmentally persistent and can pose risks to human health when sprayed indoors. Therefore, the use of DDT for vector control remains controversial. Methods In this paper we develop a computer-based simulation model to assess some of the costs and benefits of the continued use of DDT for Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) versus its rapid phase out. We apply the prototype model to the aggregated sub Saharan African region. For putting the question about the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out into perspective we calculate the same costs and benefits for alternative combinations of integrated vector management interventions. Results Our simulation results confirm that the current mix of integrated vector management interventions with DDT as the main insecticide is cheaper than the same mix with alternative insecticides when only direct costs are considered. However, combinations with a stronger focus on insecticide-treated bed nets and environmental management show higher levels of cost-effectiveness than interventions with a focus on IRS. Thus, this focus would also allow phasing out DDT in a cost-effective manner. Although a rapid phase out of DDT for IRS is the most expensive of the tested intervention combinations it can have important economic benefits in addition to health and environmental impacts that are difficult to assess in monetary terms. Those economic benefits captured by the model include the avoided risk of losses in agricultural exports. Conclusions The prototype simulation model illustrates how a computer-based scenario analysis tool can inform debates on malaria control policies in general and on the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out in specific. Simulation models create systematic mechanisms for analyzing alternative interventions and making informed trade offs. PMID:22140467
Cost-benefit analysis in occupational health: a comparison of intervention scenarios for occupational asthma and rhinitis among bakery workers.

PubMed

Meijster, Tim; van Duuren-Stuurman, Birgit; Heederik, Dick; Houba, Remko; Koningsveld, Ernst; Warren, Nicholas; Tielemans, Erik

2011-10-01

Use of cost-benefit analysis in occupational health increases insight into the intervention strategy that maximises the cost-benefit ratio. This study presents a methodological framework identifying the most important elements of a cost-benefit analysis for occupational health settings. One of the main aims of the methodology is to evaluate cost-benefit ratios for different stakeholders (employers, employees and society). The developed methodology was applied to two intervention strategies focused on reducing respiratory diseases. A cost-benefit framework was developed and used to set up a calculation spreadsheet containing the inputs and algorithms required to calculate the costs and benefits for all cost elements. Inputs from a large variety of sources were used to calculate total costs, total benefits, net costs and the benefit-to-costs ratio for both intervention scenarios. Implementation of a covenant intervention program resulted in a net benefit of €16 848 546 over 20 years for a population of 10 000 workers. Implementation was cost-effective for all stakeholders. For a health surveillance scenario, total benefits resulting from a decreased disease burden were estimated to be €44 659 352. The costs of the interventions could not be calculated. This study provides important insights for developing effective intervention strategies in the field of occupational medicine. Use of a model based approach enables investigation of those parameters most likely to impact on the effectiveness and costs of interventions for work related diseases. Our case study highlights the importance of considering different perspectives (of employers, society and employees) in assessing and sharing the costs and benefits of interventions.
Effect of discounting on estimation of benefits determined by hepatitis C treatment.

PubMed

Messori, Andrea; Fadda, Valeria; Maratea, Dario; Trippoli, Sabrina

2012-06-21

The combination of either boceprevir or telaprevir with ribavirin and interferon (triple therapy) has been shown to be more effective than ribavirin+interferon (dual therapy) for the treatment of genotype 1 hepatitis C. Since the benefit of these treatments takes place after years, simulation models are needed to predict long-term outcomes. In simulation models, the choice of different values of yearly discount rates (e.g., 6%, 3.5%, 2%, 1.5% or 0%) influences the results, but no studies have specifically addressed this issue. We examined this point by determining the long-term benefits under different conditions on the basis of standard modelling and using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to quantify the benefits. In our base case scenario, we compared the long-term benefit between patients given a treatment with a 40% sustained virologic response (SVR) (dual therapy) and patients given a treatment with a 70% SVR (triple therapy), and we then examined how these specific yearly discount rates influenced the incremental benefit. The gain between a 70% SVR and a 40% SVR decreased from 0.45 QALYs with a 0% discount rate to 0.22 QALYs with a 6% discount rate (ratio between the two values = 2.04). Testing the other discounting assumptions confirmed that the discount rate has a marked impact on the magnitude of the model-estimated incremental benefit. In conclusion, the results of our analysis can be helpful to better interpret cost-effectiveness studies evaluating new treatment for hepatitis C.
Evaluation of The Operational Benefits Versus Costs of An Automated Cargo Mover

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

logistics footprint and life-cycle cost are presented as part of this report. Analysis of modeling and simulation results identified statistically...life-cycle cost are presented as part of this report. Analysis of modeling and simulation results identified statistically significant differences...Error of Estimation. Source: Eskew and Lawler (1994). ...........................75 Figure 24. Load Results (100 Runs per Scenario
Operational oil spill trajectory modelling using HF radar currents: A northwest European continental shelf case study.

PubMed

Abascal, Ana J; Sanchez, Jorge; Chiri, Helios; Ferrer, María I; Cárdenas, Mar; Gallego, Alejandro; Castanedo, Sonia; Medina, Raúl; Alonso-Martirena, Andrés; Berx, Barbara; Turrell, William R; Hughes, Sarah L

2017-06-15

This paper presents a novel operational oil spill modelling system based on HF radar currents, implemented in a northwest European shelf sea. The system integrates Open Modal Analysis (OMA), Short Term Prediction algorithms (STPS) and an oil spill model to simulate oil spill trajectories. A set of 18 buoys was used to assess the accuracy of the system for trajectory forecast and to evaluate the benefits of HF radar data compared to the use of currents from a hydrodynamic model (HDM). The results showed that simulated trajectories using OMA currents were more accurate than those obtained using a HDM. After 48h the mean error was reduced by 40%. The forecast skill of the STPS method was valid up to 6h ahead. The analysis performed shows the benefits of HF radar data for operational oil spill modelling, which could be easily implemented in other regions with HF radar coverage. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Two Alternative Models of Maternity Care in Ireland.

PubMed

Fawsitt, Christopher G; Bourke, Jane; Murphy, Aileen; McElroy, Brendan; Lutomski, Jennifer E; Murphy, Rosemary; Greene, Richard A

2017-12-01

The Irish government has committed to expand midwifery-led care alongside consultant-led care nationally, although very little is known about the potential net benefits of this reconfiguration. To formally compare the costs and benefits of the major models of care in Ireland, with a view to informing priority setting using the contingent valuation technique and cost-benefit analysis. A marginal payment scale willingness-to-pay question was adopted from an ex ante perspective. 450 pregnant women were invited to participate in the study. Cost estimates were collected primarily, describing the average cost of a package of care. Net benefit estimates were calculated over a 1-year cycle using a third-party payer perspective. To avoid midwifery-led care, women were willing to pay €821.13 (95% CI 761.66-1150.41); to avoid consultant-led care, women were willing to pay €795.06 (95% CI 695.51-921.15). The average cost of a package of consultant- and midwifery-led care was €1,762.12 (95% CI 1496.73-2027.51) and €1018.47 (95% CI 916.61-1120.33), respectively. Midwifery-led care ranked as the best use of resources, generating a net benefit of €1491.22 (95% CI 989.35-1991.93), compared with €123.23 (95% CI -376.58 to 621.42) for consultant-led care. While both models of care are cost-beneficial, the decision to provide both alternatives may be constrained by resource issues. If only one alternative can be implemented then midwifery-led care should be undertaken for low-risk women, leaving consultant-led care for high-risk women. However, pursuing one alternative contradicts a key objective of government policy, which seeks to improve maternal choice. Ideally, multiple alternatives should be pursued.
Prostate cancer gene 3 and multiparametric magnetic resonance can reduce unnecessary biopsies: decision curve analysis to evaluate predictive models.

PubMed

Busetto, Gian Maria; De Berardinis, Ettore; Sciarra, Alessandro; Panebianco, Valeria; Giovannone, Riccardo; Rosato, Stefano; D'Errigo, Paola; Di Silverio, Franco; Gentile, Vincenzo; Salciccia, Stefano

2013-12-01

To overcome the well-known prostate-specific antigen limits, several new biomarkers have been proposed. Since its introduction in clinical practice, the urinary prostate cancer gene 3 (PCA3) assay has shown promising results for prostate cancer (PC) detection. Furthermore, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mMRI) has the ability to better describe several aspects of PC. A prospective study of 171 patients with negative prostate biopsy findings and a persistent high prostate-specific antigen level was conducted to assess the role of mMRI and PCA3 in identifying PC. All patients underwent the PCA3 test and mMRI before a second transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy. The accuracy and reliability of PCA3 (3 different cutoff points) and mMRI were evaluated. Four multivariate logistic regression models were analyzed, in terms of discrimination and the cost benefit, to assess the clinical role of PCA3 and mMRI in predicting the biopsy outcome. A decision curve analysis was also plotted. Repeated transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy identified 68 new cases (41.7%) of PC. The sensitivity and specificity of the PCA3 test and mMRI was 68% and 49% and 74% and 90%, respectively. Evaluating the regression models, the best discrimination (area under the curve 0.808) was obtained using the full model (base clinical model plus mMRI and PCA3). The decision curve analysis, to evaluate the cost/benefit ratio, showed good performance in predicting PC with the model that included mMRI and PCA3. mMRI increased the accuracy and sensitivity of the PCA3 test, and the use of the full model significantly improved the cost/benefit ratio, avoiding unnecessary biopsies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
40 CFR 51.360 - Waivers and compliance via diagnostic inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... purposes of modeling compliance with the basic I/M performance standard. (7) Beginning on January 1, 1998... minimum expenditure commensurate with the waiver rate committed to for the purposes of modeling compliance... benefits in the modeling analysis. (2) The State shall take corrective action if the waiver rate exceeds...
40 CFR 51.360 - Waivers and compliance via diagnostic inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... purposes of modeling compliance with the basic I/M performance standard. (7) Beginning on January 1, 1998... minimum expenditure commensurate with the waiver rate committed to for the purposes of modeling compliance... benefits in the modeling analysis. (2) The State shall take corrective action if the waiver rate exceeds...
40 CFR 51.360 - Waivers and compliance via diagnostic inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... purposes of modeling compliance with the basic I/M performance standard. (7) Beginning on January 1, 1998... minimum expenditure commensurate with the waiver rate committed to for the purposes of modeling compliance... benefits in the modeling analysis. (2) The State shall take corrective action if the waiver rate exceeds...
40 CFR 51.360 - Waivers and compliance via diagnostic inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... purposes of modeling compliance with the basic I/M performance standard. (7) Beginning on January 1, 1998... minimum expenditure commensurate with the waiver rate committed to for the purposes of modeling compliance... benefits in the modeling analysis. (2) The State shall take corrective action if the waiver rate exceeds...
A cost-benefit model comparing the California Milk Cell Test and Milk Electrical Resistance Test.

PubMed

Petzer, Inge-Marie; Karzis, Joanne; Meyer, Isabel A; van der Schans, Theodorus J

2013-04-24

The indirect effects of mastitis treatment are often overlooked in cost-benefit analyses, but it may be beneficial for the dairy industry to consider them. The cost of mastitis treatment may increase when the duration of intra-mammary infections are prolonged due to misdiagnosis of host-adapted mastitis. Laboratory diagnosis of mastitis can be costly and time consuming, therefore cow-side tests such as the California Milk Cell Test (CMCT) and Milk Electrical Resistance (MER) need to be utilised to their full potential. The aim of this study was to determine the relative benefit of using these two tests separately and in parallel. This was done using a partial-budget analysis and a cost-benefit model to estimate the benefits and costs of each respective test and the parallel combination thereof. Quarter milk samples (n= 1860) were taken from eight different dairy herds in South Africa. Milk samples were evaluated by means of the CMCT, hand-held MER meter and cyto-microbiological laboratory analysis. After determining the most appropriate cut-off points for the two cow-side tests, the sensitivity and specificity of the CMCT (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.66), MER (Se= 0.92, Sp= 0.62) and the tests done in parallel (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.87) were calculated. The input data that were used for partial-budget analysis and in the cost-benefit model were based on South African figures at the time of the study, and on literature. The total estimated financial benefit of correct diagnosis of host-adapted mastitis per cow for the CMCT, MER and the tests done in parallel was R898.73, R518.70 and R1064.67 respectively. This involved taking the expected benefit of a correct test result per cow, the expected cost of an error per cow and the cost of the test into account. The CMCT was shown to be 11%more beneficial than the MER test, whilst using the tests in parallel was shown to be the most beneficial method for evaluating the mastitis-control programme. Therefore, it is recommended that the combined tests should be used strategically in practice to monitor udder health and promote a pro-active udder health approach when dealing with host-adapted pathogens.
Comparing climate policy co-benefits in the United States and China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selin, N. E.; Li, M.; Saari, R.; Zhang, D.; Karplus, V. J.; Li, C. T.; Thompson, T. M.; Mulvaney, K. M.; Rausch, S.

2016-12-01

We use modeling approaches that integrate atmospheric chemistry, economic analysis, and health impacts calculations to evaluate and compare the co-benefits of greenhouse gas reduction policies for the U.S. and China. Climate policies can have a variety of co-benefits for air quality, in particular on the concentrations of health-damaging pollutants O3 and PM2.5 as well as toxic pollutants such as mercury. Co-benefits. Controlling CO2 sources such as power plants and vehicles can lead to concomitant reductions in other pollutants such as SO2, NOx, and Hg. Here, we present and discuss our evaluations of co-benefits in the U.S. and China, at both national and regional (state/provincial) scales. In particular, we assess how policy design, stringency, and energy system characteristics affect projected co-benefits and their valuation for human health. We find that at the national scale in both the U.S. and China, monetized co-benefits can offset the costs of carbon policies. U.S. co-benefits exhibit diminishing returns to projected increases in policy stringency, while Chinese co-benefits show different behavior. The magnitude of health-related co-benefits is sensitive to the economic valuation methodology, and to the choice of health impact function, with China-specific functions yielding substantially less co-benefit than those typically used in the U.S. In both cases, we see overall national-scale co-benefits but substantial regional variation at sub-national scales, illustrating the benefits of coupled atmospheric-economic analysis.
The impact of including passive benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis: the case of automated external defibrillators on commercial aircraft.

PubMed

Cram, Peter; Vijan, Sandeep; Wolbrink, Alex; Fendrick, A Mark

2003-01-01

Traditional cost-utility analysis assumes that all benefits from health-related interventions are captured by the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained by the few individuals whose outcome is improved by the intervention. However, it is possible that many individuals who do not directly benefit from an intervention receive utility, and therefore QALYs, because of the passive benefit (aka sense of security) provided by the existence of the intervention. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact that varying quantities of passive benefit have on the cost-effectiveness of airline defibrillator programs. A decision analytic model with Markov processes was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of defibrillator deployment on domestic commercial passenger aircraft over 1 year. Airline passengers were assigned small incremental utility gains (.001-.01) during an estimated 3-hour flight to evaluate the impact of passive benefit on overall cost-effectiveness. In the base case analysis with no allowance for passive benefit, the cost-effectiveness of airline automated external defibrillator deployment was US dollars 34000 per QALY gained. If 1% of all passengers received utility gain of.01, the cost-effectiveness declined to US dollars 30000. Cost-effectiveness was enhanced when the quantity of passive benefit was raised or the percentage of individuals receiving passive benefit increased. Automated external defibrillator deployment on passenger aircraft is likely to be cost-effective. If a small percentage of airline passengers receive incremental utility gains from passive benefit of automated external defibrillator availability, the impact on overall cost-effectiveness may be substantial. Further research should attempt to clarify the magnitude and percentage of patients who receive passive benefit.

Worth of Geophysical Data in Natural-Disaster-Insurance Rate Setting.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attanasi, E. D.; Karlinger, M. R.

1982-04-01

Insurance firms that offer natural-disaster insurance base their rates on available information. The benefits from collecting additional data and incorporating this information to improve parameter estimates of probability distributions that are used to characterize natural-disaster events can be determined by computing changes in premiums as a function of additional data. Specifically, the worth of data can be measured by changes in consumer's surplus (the widely applied measure of benefits to consumers used in benefit-cost analysis) brought about when the premiums are adjusted. In this paper, a formal model of the process for setting insurance rates is hypothesized in which the insurance firm sets rates so as to trade off penalties of overestimation and underestimation of expected damages estimated from currently available hydrologic data. A Bayesian preposterior analysis is performed which permits the determination of the expected benefits of collecting additional geophysical data by examining the changes in expected premium rates as a function of the longer record before the data are actually collected. An estimate of the expected benefits associated with collecting more data for the representative consumer is computed using an assumed demand function for insurance. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of expected benefits to changes in insurance demand and firm rate-setting procedures is carried out. From these results, conclusions are drawn regarding aggregate benefits to all flood insurance purchasers.
Organizational Infrastructure in the Collegiate Athletic Training Setting, Part III: Benefits of and Barriers in the Medical and Academic Models

PubMed Central

Eason, Christianne M.; Mazerolle, Stephanie M.; Goodman, Ashley

2017-01-01

Context: Academic and medical models are emerging as alternatives to the athletics model, which is the more predominant model in the collegiate athletic training setting. Little is known about athletic trainers' (ATs') perceptions of these models. Objective: To investigate the perceived benefits of and barriers in the medical and academic models. Design: Qualitative study. Setting: National Collegiate Athletic Association Divisions I, II, and III. Patients or Other Participants: A total of 16 full-time ATs (10 men, 6 women; age = 32 ± 6 years, experience = 10 ± 6 years) working in the medical (n = 8) or academic (n = 8) models. Data Collection and Analysis: We conducted semistructured telephone interviews and evaluated the qualitative data using a general inductive approach. Multiple-analyst triangulation and peer review were completed to satisfy data credibility. Results: In the medical model, role congruency and work-life balance emerged as benefits, whereas role conflict, specifically intersender conflict with coaches, was a barrier. In the academic model, role congruency emerged as a benefit, and barriers were role strain and work-life conflict. Subscales of role strain included role conflict and role ambiguity for new employees. Role conflict stemmed from intersender conflict with coaches and athletics administrative personnel and interrole conflict with fulfilling multiple overlapping roles (academic, clinical, administrative). Conclusions: The infrastructure in which ATs provide medical care needs to be evaluated. We found that the medical model can support better alignment for both patient care and the wellbeing of ATs. Whereas the academic model has perceived benefits, role incongruence exists, mostly because of the role complexity associated with balancing teaching, patient-care, and administrative duties. PMID:27977302
Performance Benefits for Wave Rotor-Topped Gas Turbine Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Scott M.; Welch, Gerard E.

1996-01-01

The benefits of wave rotor-topping in turboshaft engines, subsonic high-bypass turbofan engines, auxiliary power units, and ground power units are evaluated. The thermodynamic cycle performance is modeled using a one-dimensional steady-state code; wave rotor performance is modeled using one-dimensional design/analysis codes. Design and off-design engine performance is calculated for baseline engines and wave rotor-topped engines, where the wave rotor acts as a high pressure spool. The wave rotor-enhanced engines are shown to have benefits in specific power and specific fuel flow over the baseline engines without increasing turbine inlet temperature. The off-design steady-state behavior of a wave rotor-topped engine is shown to be similar to a conventional engine. Mission studies are performed to quantify aircraft performance benefits for various wave rotor cycle and weight parameters. Gas turbine engine cycles most likely to benefit from wave rotor-topping are identified. Issues of practical integration and the corresponding technical challenges with various engine types are discussed.
Airport GSE Model Directions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

User manual for the GSEModel which is a spreadsheet analysis tool for quantifying emission benefits and calculating the cost-effectiveness of converting to cleaner-burning fuels and engine technologies.
Analysis of longitudinal data from the Puget Sound transportation panel : task E : modal split analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-11-01

The Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS) is a computer model designed to simulate improvement selection decisions based on the relative benefit-cost merits of alternative improvement options. HERS is intended to estimate national level investm...
Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less
Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China*

PubMed Central

Guan, Fa-chun; Sha, Zhi-peng; Zhang, Yu-yang; Wang, Jun-feng; Wang, Chao

2016-01-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems. PMID:27487808
Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China.

PubMed

Guan, Fa-Chun; Sha, Zhi-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Yang; Wang, Jun-Feng; Wang, Chao

2016-08-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems.
2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-23

Decision Analysis Model Bret N. Witham Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Benefits and Compensation Commons...FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED...Science in Operations Research Bret N. Witham, BS Captain, USAF March 2017 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION
Economic benefits of midseason reordering in apparel retailing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamont, A.; Elayat, H.

1995-09-27

This report presents a method for determining the value of reordering, explores factors that affect its value, and provides an estimate of the value under a range of conditions. The method is based on a stochastic process model of the demands the retailer faces. It uses a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal quantities to order and the expected profits. The analysis shows that the benefits of reordering are quite sensitive to the uncertainties in the demand and to the assumptions about the markdown of unsold merchandise at the end of the season.
A cost-benefit analysis of landfill mining and material recycling in China.

PubMed

Zhou, Chuanbin; Gong, Zhe; Hu, Junsong; Cao, Aixin; Liang, Hanwen

2015-01-01

Landfill mining is an environmentally-friendly technology that combines the concepts of material recycling and sustainable waste management, and it has received a great deal of worldwide attention because of its significant environmental and economic potential in material recycling, energy recovery, land reclamation and pollution prevention. This work applied a cost-benefit analysis model for assessing the economic feasibility, which is important for promoting landfill mining. The model includes eight indicators of costs and nine indicators of benefits. Four landfill mining scenarios were designed and analyzed based on field data. The economic feasibility of landfill mining was then evaluated by the indicator of net present value (NPV). According to our case study of a typical old landfill mining project in China (Yingchun landfill), rental of excavation and hauling equipment, waste processing and material transportation were the top three costs of landfill mining, accounting for 88.2% of the total cost, and the average cost per unit of stored waste was 12.7USDton(-1). The top three benefits of landfill mining were electricity generation by incineration, land reclamation and recycling soil-like materials. The NPV analysis of the four different scenarios indicated that the Yingchun landfill mining project could obtain a net positive benefit varying from 1.92 million USD to 16.63 million USD. However, the NPV was sensitive to the mode of land reuse, the availability of energy recovery facilities and the possibility of obtaining financial support by avoiding post-closure care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
COST–RISK–BENEFIT ANALYSIS IN DIAGNOSTIC RADIOLOGY: A THEORETICAL AND ECONOMIC BASIS FOR RADIATION PROTECTION OF THE PATIENT

PubMed Central

Moores, B. Michael

2016-01-01

In 1973, International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 22 recommended that the acceptability of radiation exposure levels for a given activity should be determined by a process of cost–benefit analysis. It was felt that this approach could be used to underpin both the principle of ALARA as well for justification purposes. The net benefit, B, of an operation involving irradiation was regarded as equal to the difference between its gross benefit, V, and the sum of three components; the basic production cost associated with the operation, P; the cost of achieving the selected level of protection, X; and the cost Y of the detriment involved in the operation: B=V−(P+X+Y). This article presents a theoretical cost–risk–benefit analysis that is applicable to the diagnostic accuracy (Levels 1 and 2) of the hierarchical efficacy model presented by National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements in 1992. This enables the costs of an examination to be related to the sensitivity and specificity of an X-ray examination within a defined clinical problem setting and introduces both false-positive/false-negative diagnostic outcomes into the patient radiation protection framework. PMID:26705358
Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

PubMed

Porse, Erik

2014-01-01

Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.
The value of information as applied to the Landsat Follow-on benefit-cost analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, D. B.

1978-01-01

An econometric model was run to compare the current forecasting system with a hypothetical (Landsat Follow-on) space-based system. The baseline current system was a hybrid of USDA SRS domestic forecasts and the best known foreign data. The space-based system improved upon the present Landsat by the higher spatial resolution capability of the thematic mapper. This satellite system is a major improvement for foreign forecasts but no better than SRS for domestic forecasts. The benefit analysis was concentrated on the use of Landsat Follow-on to forecast world wheat production. Results showed that it was possible to quantify the value of satellite information and that there are significant benefits in more timely and accurate crop condition information.
Effects of macroeconomic trends on social security spending due to sickness and disability.

PubMed

Khan, Jahangir; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Jansson, Bjarne

2004-11-01

We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability. We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980-1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor's pensions, and total spending. A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings. Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.
Analysis of the Community Benefit Standard in Texas Hospitals.

PubMed

Worthy, James Corbett; Anderson, Cheryl L

2016-01-01

The federal government provides special tax-exemption status, known as the community benefit standard, to some nonprofit hospitals. It is not known if hospitals that claim the community benefit standard provide more or different services from those provided by hospitals that do not claim the community benefit status. Guided by the socioecological model, this quantitative study investigated 95 hospitals serving 52 counties in South Texas--43 that claimed a community benefit and 52 that did not. The independent variables were hospitals that claimed the community benefit standard versus hospitals that did not. The dependent variables were the three essential criteria and the 13 reported services used to meet the community benefit standard. The study results show that all hospitals that claimed the community benefit standard met two of the three required criteria. However, only 22 of 43 hospitals had a full-time emergency department (ED), the third criterion. Χ² analysis showed statistically significant differences for only two of the five common services: having an ED and community education for community benefit hospitals versus noncommunity benefit hospitals. On average, hospitals that claimed the community benefit spent 100 times more money on community services than hospitals that did not claim the community benefit. Further investigation is needed to determine the reasons for the gap in services pertaining to EDs, trauma care, neonatal intensive care, free-standing clinics, collaborative efforts, other medical services, education of patients, community health education, and other education services.
Analysis of satellite servicing cost benefits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Builteman, H. O.

1982-01-01

Under the auspices of NASA/JSC a methodology was developed to estimate the value of satellite servicing to the user community. Time and funding precluded the development of an exhaustive computer model; instead, the concept of Design Reference Missions was involved. In this approach, three space programs were analyzed for various levels of servicing. The programs selected fall into broad categories which include 80 to 90% of the missions planned between now and the end of the century. Of necessity, the extrapolation of the three program analyses to the user community as a whole depends on an average mission model and equivalency projections. The value of the estimated cost benefits based on this approach depends largely on how well the equivalency assumptions and the mission model match the real world. A careful definition of all assumptions permits the analysis to be extended to conditions beyond the scope of this study.
When What You See Isn’t What You Get: How Viewshed Analysis is Impacted by Digital Surface Model (DSM) Resolution

EPA Science Inventory

A key factor for improving models of ecosystem benefits is the availability of high quality spatial data. High resolution LIDAR data are now commonly available and can be used to produce more accurate model outputs. However, increased resolution leads to higher computer resource...
Is the Flipped Classroom Model for All? Correspondence Analysis from Trainee Instructional Media Designers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pellas, Nikolaos

2018-01-01

The educational potentials and challenges of "flipping" a classroom are today well-documented. However, taking into account the contradictory results, literature on the benefits in using the flipped model as a socially inclusive technology-supported instructional design model is still in its infancy. This study seeks to investigate the…
A Limitation of the Applicability of Interval Shift Analysis to Program Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardy, Roy

1975-01-01

Interval Shift Analysis (ISA) is an adaptation of the linear programming model used to determine maximum benefits or minimal losses in quantifiable economics problems. ISA is applied to pre and posttest score distributions for 43 classes of second graders. (RC)

FMCSA Safety Program Effectiveness Measurement: Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model, Version 1.1-Report for FY 2014 Interventions - Analysis Brief

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-04-01

The Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM) provides the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) with a tool for measuring the safety benefits of carrier interventions conducted under the Compliance, Safety, Accountability (CSA) e...
FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : carrier intervention effectiveness model, version 1.1 - report for FY 2013 interventions : analysis brief

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM) provides the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) with a tool for measuring the safety benefits of carrier interventions conducted under the Compliance, Safety, Accountability (CSA) e...
Radiography for intensive care: participatory process analysis in a PACS-equipped and film/screen environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peer, Regina; Peer, Siegfried; Sander, Heike; Marsolek, Ingo; Koller, Wolfgang; Pappert, Dirk; Hierholzer, Johannes

2002-05-01

If new technology is introduced into medical practice it must prove to make a difference. However traditional approaches of outcome analysis failed to show a direct benefit of PACS on patient care and economical benefits are still in debate. A participatory process analysis was performed to compare workflow in a film based hospital and a PACS environment. This included direct observation of work processes, interview of involved staff, structural analysis and discussion of observations with staff members. After definition of common structures strong and weak workflow steps were evaluated. With a common workflow structure in both hospitals, benefits of PACS were revealed in workflow steps related to image reporting with simultaneous image access for ICU-physicians and radiologists, archiving of images as well as image and report distribution. However PACS alone is not able to cover the complete process of 'radiography for intensive care' from ordering of an image till provision of the final product equals image + report. Interference of electronic workflow with analogue process steps such as paper based ordering reduces the potential benefits of PACS. In this regard workflow modeling proved to be very helpful for the evaluation of complex work processes linking radiology and the ICU.
The HIV Cure Research Agenda: The Role of Mathematical Modelling and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Freedberg, Kenneth A; Possas, Cristina; Deeks, Steven; Ross, Anna Laura; Rosettie, Katherine L; Di Mascio, Michele; Collins, Chris; Walensky, Rochelle P; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan

The research agenda towards an HIV cure is building rapidly. In this article, we discuss the reasons for and methodological approach to using mathematical modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis in this agenda. We provide a brief description of the proof of concept for cure and the current directions of cure research. We then review the types of clinical economic evaluations, including cost analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and cost-effectiveness analysis. We describe the use of mathematical modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis early in the HIV epidemic as well as in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy. We then highlight the novel methodology of Value of Information analysis and its potential role in the planning of clinical trials. We close with recommendations for modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis in the HIV cure agenda.
Agricultural policy and social returns to eradication programs: the case of Aujeszky's disease in Sweden.

PubMed

Andersson, H; Lexmon, A; Robertsson, J A; Lundeheim, N; Wierup, M

1997-02-01

Economic-welfare analysis of animal disease prevention programs frequently ignore the constraints of the agricultural policy environment. Prevention programs affect producers, consumers and the government. The policy environment to a large extent determines the magnitude as well as the distribution of benefits of the program among these groups. The Swedish hog industry has been exposed to three major policy changes during the 1990-1995 period. These scenarios involve various degrees of government intervention in the agricultural sector including internal market deregulation and EU-membership. Aujeszky's disease is a virus disease with swine as the natural infection reservoir. Piglets are the most fragile and an outbreak of the disease results in symptoms such as shaking, cramps and convulsions with an increase in the mortality rate. Slaughter hogs suffer from coughing, fever and reduce their feed consumption. During the last 20-25 years the incidence of Aujeszky's disease (AD) has been increasing in Sweden. In 1989 an eradication program was undertaken. A model is developed to analyze social benefits of an eradication program given variations in agricultural policy. The model refers to the specifics of the AD-program implemented in Sweden. The expected benefits of the program are evaluated using a welfare-economic analysis applying cost-benefit analysis. Total benefits of the program are evaluated across herd and size categories and different regions. Data concerning the frequency of the virus among various categories of herds prior to enacting the program were used (Wahlström et al., 1990). In addition, data from an agricultural insurance company were used to estimate the conditional probability of an outbreak given that the herd is infected. Biological and technical parameter values were collected from a variety of sources. The results of the analysis indicate that the program is economically viable given a social rate of discount in the range of 3-5% without considering non-monetary aspects such as animal ethics. A scenario where the Swedish agricultural sector is deregulated provides the maximum benefits of the program. Consumers obtain about 50% of the benefits excluding program costs. The deregulation scenario would correspond closely to a case where a reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is applied across member countries. In the current case where Sweden is a member of the EU, the benefits are reduced mainly due to lower prices of inputs and pork.
Diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection in Medicare patients: multicriteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Diaz-Ledezma, Claudio; Lichstein, Paul M; Dolan, James G; Parvizi, Javad

2014-11-01

In the setting of finite healthcare resources, developing cost-efficient strategies for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) diagnosis is paramount. The current levels of knowledge allow for PJI diagnostic recommendations based on scientific evidence but do not consider the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks of the different diagnostic alternatives. We determined the best diagnostic strategy for knee and hip PJI in the ambulatory setting for Medicare patients, utilizing benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks evaluation through multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). The PJI diagnostic definition supported by the Musculoskeletal Infection Society was employed for the MCDA. Using a preclinical model, we evaluated three diagnostic strategies that can be conducted in a Medicare patient seen in the outpatient clinical setting complaining of a painful TKA or THA. Strategies were (1) screening with serum markers (erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR]/C-reactive protein [CRP]) followed by arthrocentesis in positive cases, (2) immediate arthrocentesis, and (3) serum markers requested simultaneously with arthrocentesis. MCDA was conducted through the analytic hierarchy process, comparing the diagnostic strategies in terms of benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks. Strategy 1 was the best alternative to diagnose knee PJI among Medicare patients (normalized value: 0.490), followed by Strategy 3 (normalized value: 0.403) and then Strategy 2 (normalized value: 0.106). The same ranking of alternatives was observed for the hip PJI model (normalized value: 0.487, 0.405, and 0.107, respectively). The sensitivity analysis found this sequence to be robust with respect to benefits, opportunities, and risks. However, if during the decision-making process, cost savings was given a priority of higher than 54%, the ranking for the preferred diagnostic strategy changed. After considering the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks of the different available alternatives, our preclinical model supports the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons recommendations regarding the use of serum markers (ESR/CRP) before arthrocentesis as the best diagnostic strategy for PJI among Medicare patients. Level II, economic and decision analysis. See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
An Analysis of the Use of Cloud Computing among University Lecturers: A Case Study in Zimbabwe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Musungwini, Samuel; Mugoniwa, Beauty; Furusa, Samuel Simbarashe; Rebanowako, Taurai George

2016-01-01

Cloud computing is a novel model of computing that may bring extensive benefits to users, institutions, businesses and academics, while at the same time also giving rise to new risks and challenges. This study looked at the benefits of using Google docs by researchers and academics and analysing the factors affecting the adoption and use of the…
Applications of Earth Observations for Fisheries Management: An analysis of socioeconomic benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, L.; Kiefer, D. A.; Turner, W.

2013-12-01

This paper will discuss the socioeconomic impacts of a project applying Earth observations and models to support management and conservation of tuna and other marine resources in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A project team created a software package that produces statistical analyses and dynamic maps of habitat for pelagic ocean biota. The tool integrates sea surface temperature and chlorophyll imagery from MODIS, ocean circulation models, and other data products. The project worked with the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, which issues fishery management information, such as stock assessments, for the eastern Pacific region. The Commission uses the tool and broader habitat information to produce better estimates of stock and thus improve their ability to identify species that could be at risk of overfishing. The socioeconomic analysis quantified the relative value that Earth observations contributed to accurate stock size assessments through improvements in calculating population size. The analysis team calculated the first-order economic costs of a fishery collapse (or shutdown), and they calculated the benefits of improved estimates that reduce the uncertainty of stock size and thus reduce the risk of fishery collapse. The team estimated that the project reduced the probability of collapse of different fisheries, and the analysis generated net present values of risk mitigation. USC led the project with sponsorship from the NASA Earth Science Division's Applied Sciences Program, which conducted the socioeconomic impact analysis. The paper will discuss the project and focus primarily on the analytic methods, impact metrics, and the results of the socioeconomic benefits analysis.
A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models.

PubMed

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-30

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
SNAP Participants' Eating Patterns over the Benefit Month: A Time Use Perspective.

PubMed

Hamrick, Karen S; Andrews, Margaret

2016-01-01

Individuals receiving monthly benefits through the U.S. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) often fall short of food at the end of the month and some report feelings of hunger. To investigate this situation, we used time diaries from the 2006-08 American Time Use Survey and Eating & Health Module to identify the timing of days where respondents reported no eating occurrences. Analysis includes descriptive statistics, a logit model, and a simulated benefit month. We found that SNAP participants were increasingly more likely than nonparticipants to report a day with no eating occurrences over the benefit issuance cycle. This supports the view that there is a monthly cycle in food consumption associated with the SNAP monthly benefit issuance policy.
SNAP Participants’ Eating Patterns over the Benefit Month: A Time Use Perspective

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Individuals receiving monthly benefits through the U.S. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) often fall short of food at the end of the month and some report feelings of hunger. To investigate this situation, we used time diaries from the 2006–08 American Time Use Survey and Eating & Health Module to identify the timing of days where respondents reported no eating occurrences. Analysis includes descriptive statistics, a logit model, and a simulated benefit month. We found that SNAP participants were increasingly more likely than nonparticipants to report a day with no eating occurrences over the benefit issuance cycle. This supports the view that there is a monthly cycle in food consumption associated with the SNAP monthly benefit issuance policy. PMID:27410962
A consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Han-Xin

2016-08-01

We propose a consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game. In our model, both of the two connected agents receive a benefit if they have the same opinion, otherwise they both pay a cost. Agents update their opinions by comparing payoffs with neighbors. The opinion of an agent with higher payoff is more likely to be imitated. We apply this model in scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal ratio of cost to benefit, leading to the shortest consensus time. Qualitative analysis is obtained by examining the evolution of the opinion clusters. Moreover, we find that the consensus time decreases as the average degree of the network increases, but increases with the noise introduced to permit irrational choices. The dependence of the consensus time on the network size is found to be a power-law form. For small or larger ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time decreases as the degree exponent increases. However, for moderate ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time increases with the degree exponent. Our results may provide new insights into opinion dynamics driven by the evolutionary game theory.
Profit Analysis Model of Smart Item Implementation in Integrated Supply Chain Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tritularsih, Yustina; Rinanto, Andhy; Prasetyo, Hoedi; Nur Rosyidi, Cucuk

2018-03-01

Nowadays all links of the entire supply chain need to integrate their different infrastructures and they have better control of them to drive better profits. This integration should offer the ability for companies in order to have an overall and transparent insight to its supply chain activities. An intelligent supply chain which is mainly supported by Smart Items technology can satisfy the need of those integration. By means of Smart Items, a company can benefit some advantages. Those are cost reduction and value creation. However, currently there is no comprehensive Smart Item infrastructure exists yet so it is difficult to calculate the true benefit information. This paper attempts to recommend a model for estimating the benefits of implementing Smart Items in a company which has an integrated supply chain process. The integrated supply chain means that three echelons (supplier, shipper and retailer) of supply chain are belonged to a company. The proposed model was used to determine the shrinkage value and RFID tag price which can give the maximum benefit of Smart Items implementation. A numerical example is also provided to give a better comprehension on model calculation.
AOM/DSS Model of Colitis-Associated Cancer

PubMed Central

Parang, Bobak; Barret, Caitlyn W.; Williams, Christopher S.

2016-01-01

Summary Our understanding of colitis-associated carcinoma (CAC) has benefited substantially from mouse models that faithfully recapitulate human CAC. Chemical models, in particular, have enabled fast and efficient analysis of genetic and environmental modulators of CAC without the added requirement of time-intensive genetic crossings. Here we describe the Azoxymethane (AOM)/Dextran Sodium Sulfate (DSS) mouse model of inflammatory colorectal cancer. PMID:27246042
The Impact of Company-Level ART Provision to a Mining Workforce in South Africa: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

PubMed

Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Pienaar, Jan; Brink, Brian; van Zyl, Andrew; Muirhead, Debbie; Grant, Alison; Churchyard, Gavin; Watts, Charlotte; Vickerman, Peter

2015-09-01

HIV impacts heavily on the operating costs of companies in sub-Saharan Africa, with many companies now providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in the workplace. A full cost-benefit analysis of workplace ART provision has not been conducted using primary data. We developed a dynamic health-state transition model to estimate the economic impact of HIV and the cost-benefit of ART provision in a mining company in South Africa between 2003 and 2022. A dynamic health-state transition model, called the Workplace Impact Model (WIM), was parameterised with workplace data on workforce size, composition, turnover, HIV incidence, and CD4 cell count development. Bottom-up cost analyses from the employer perspective supplied data on inpatient and outpatient resource utilisation and the costs of absenteeism and replacement of sick workers. The model was fitted to workforce HIV prevalence and separation data while incorporating parameter uncertainty; univariate sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model findings. As ART coverage increases from 10% to 97% of eligible employees, increases in survival and retention of HIV-positive employees and associated reductions in absenteeism and benefit payments lead to cost savings compared to a scenario of no treatment provision, with the annual cost of HIV to the company decreasing by 5% (90% credibility interval [CrI] 2%-8%) and the mean cost per HIV-positive employee decreasing by 14% (90% CrI 7%-19%) by 2022. This translates into an average saving of US$950,215 (90% CrI US$220,879-US$1.6 million) per year; 80% of these cost savings are due to reductions in benefit payments and inpatient care costs. Although findings are sensitive to assumptions regarding incidence and absenteeism, ART is cost-saving under considerable parameter uncertainty and in all tested scenarios, including when prevalence is reduced to 1%-except when no benefits were paid out to employees leaving the workforce and when absenteeism rates were half of what data suggested. Scaling up ART further through a universal test and treat strategy doubles savings; incorporating ART for family members reduces savings but is still marginally cost-saving compared to no treatment. Our analysis was limited to the direct cost of HIV to companies and did not examine the impact of HIV prevention policies on the miners or their families, and a few model inputs were based on limited data, though in sensitivity analysis our results were found to be robust to changes to these inputs along plausible ranges. Workplace ART provision can be cost-saving for companies in high HIV prevalence settings due to reductions in healthcare costs, absenteeism, and staff turnover. Company-sponsored HIV counselling and voluntary testing with ensuing treatment of all HIV-positive employees and family members should be implemented universally at workplaces in countries with high HIV prevalence.
The Impact of Company-Level ART Provision to a Mining Workforce in South Africa: A Cost–Benefit Analysis

PubMed Central

Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Pienaar, Jan; Brink, Brian; van Zyl, Andrew; Muirhead, Debbie; Grant, Alison; Churchyard, Gavin; Watts, Charlotte; Vickerman, Peter

2015-01-01

Background HIV impacts heavily on the operating costs of companies in sub-Saharan Africa, with many companies now providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in the workplace. A full cost–benefit analysis of workplace ART provision has not been conducted using primary data. We developed a dynamic health-state transition model to estimate the economic impact of HIV and the cost–benefit of ART provision in a mining company in South Africa between 2003 and 2022. Methods and Findings A dynamic health-state transition model, called the Workplace Impact Model (WIM), was parameterised with workplace data on workforce size, composition, turnover, HIV incidence, and CD4 cell count development. Bottom-up cost analyses from the employer perspective supplied data on inpatient and outpatient resource utilisation and the costs of absenteeism and replacement of sick workers. The model was fitted to workforce HIV prevalence and separation data while incorporating parameter uncertainty; univariate sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model findings. As ART coverage increases from 10% to 97% of eligible employees, increases in survival and retention of HIV-positive employees and associated reductions in absenteeism and benefit payments lead to cost savings compared to a scenario of no treatment provision, with the annual cost of HIV to the company decreasing by 5% (90% credibility interval [CrI] 2%–8%) and the mean cost per HIV-positive employee decreasing by 14% (90% CrI 7%–19%) by 2022. This translates into an average saving of US$950,215 (90% CrI US$220,879–US$1.6 million) per year; 80% of these cost savings are due to reductions in benefit payments and inpatient care costs. Although findings are sensitive to assumptions regarding incidence and absenteeism, ART is cost-saving under considerable parameter uncertainty and in all tested scenarios, including when prevalence is reduced to 1%—except when no benefits were paid out to employees leaving the workforce and when absenteeism rates were half of what data suggested. Scaling up ART further through a universal test and treat strategy doubles savings; incorporating ART for family members reduces savings but is still marginally cost-saving compared to no treatment. Our analysis was limited to the direct cost of HIV to companies and did not examine the impact of HIV prevention policies on the miners or their families, and a few model inputs were based on limited data, though in sensitivity analysis our results were found to be robust to changes to these inputs along plausible ranges. Conclusions Workplace ART provision can be cost-saving for companies in high HIV prevalence settings due to reductions in healthcare costs, absenteeism, and staff turnover. Company-sponsored HIV counselling and voluntary testing with ensuing treatment of all HIV-positive employees and family members should be implemented universally at workplaces in countries with high HIV prevalence. PMID:26327271
Fiber shape effects on metal matrix composite behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, H. C.; Lee, H.-J.; Chamis, C. C.

1992-01-01

The effects of different fiber shapes on the behavior of a SiC/Ti-15 metal matrix composite is computationally simulated. A three-dimensional finite element model consisting of a group of nine unidirectional fibers is used in the analysis. The model is employed to represent five different fiber shapes: a circle, an ellipse, a kidney, and two different cross shapes. The distribution of microstresses and the composite material properties, such as moduli, coefficients of thermal expansion, and Poisson's ratios, are obtained from the finite element analysis for the various fiber shapes. Comparisons of these results are used to determine the sensitivity of the composite behavior to the different fiber shapes and assess their potential benefits. No clear benefits result from different fiber shapes though there are some increases/decreases in isolated properties.
Nomogram for predicting the benefit of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for patients with esophageal cancer: a SEER-Medicare analysis.

PubMed

Eil, Robert; Diggs, Brian S; Wang, Samuel J; Dolan, James P; Hunter, John G; Thomas, Charles R

2014-02-15

The survival impact of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on esophageal cancer remains difficult to establish for specific patients. The aim of the current study was to create a Web-based prediction tool providing individualized survival projections based on tumor and treatment data. Patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer between 1997 and 2005 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database. The covariates analyzed were sex, T and N classification, histology, total number of lymph nodes examined, and treatment with esophagectomy or CRT followed by esophagectomy. After propensity score weighting, a log-logistic regression model for overall survival was selected based on the Akaike information criterion. A total of 824 patients with esophageal cancer who were treated with esophagectomy or trimodal therapy met the selection criteria. On multivariate analysis, age, sex, T and N classification, number of lymph nodes examined, treatment, and histology were found to be significantly associated with overall survival and were included in the regression analysis. Preoperative staging data and final surgical margin status were not available within the SEER-Medicare data set and therefore were not included. The model predicted that patients with T4 or lymph node disease benefitted from CRT. The internally validated concordance index was 0.72. The SEER-Medicare database of patients with esophageal cancer can be used to produce a survival prediction tool that: 1) serves as a counseling and decision aid to patients and 2) assists in risk modeling. Patients with T4 or lymph node disease appeared to benefit from CRT. This nomogram may underestimate the benefit of CRT due to its variable downstaging effect on pathologic stage. It is available at skynet.ohsu.edu/nomograms. © 2013 American Cancer Society.
Cost-benefit analysis of first-generation antihistamines in the treatment of allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Sullivan, Patrick W; Follin, Sheryl L; Nichol, Michael B

2004-01-01

The majority of individuals with allergic rhinitis in the US take first-generation antihistamines (FGAs). Although FGAs have been proven effective in alleviating allergic rhinitis symptoms, they have been associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle, aviation and occupational injuries and deaths, reduced productivity and impaired learning. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the total costs and benefits of FGA use in the US from the societal perspective. We used a decision-analytic model to quantify the annual societal costs and benefits of treatment with FGAs compared with the hypothetical alternative of no treatment for the population of individuals with allergic rhinitis and taking FGAs in the US in 2001. The benefit associated with FGA use was estimated using the willingness-to-pay framework and projected to the US population using published estimates of the prevalence of allergic rhinitis. The costs of FGA-associated sedation included lost productivity and the direct and indirect cost of unintentional injuries (including motor vehicle, occupational, public and home injuries and fatalities). The incidence of injuries and fatalities associated with FGA use was estimated using the risk of injury attributable to the sedentary effects of FGAs in the allergic rhinitis population. To evaluate uncertainty in the model assumptions, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted using Bayesian second-order Monte Carlo simulation. Costs and benefits are expressed in 2001 US dollars, using a 3% discount rate. Based on current utilisation, the total societal benefit (95% credible interval) associated with the use of FGAs for the treatment of allergic rhinitis was US 7.7 billion dollars (US 1.3 billion dollars to US 21 billion dollars). The societal cost of purchasing FGAs was only US 697 million dollars. However, the societal cost of FGA-associated sedation was US 11.3 billion dollars (US 2.4 billion dollars to US 50.8 billion dollars). The annual societal net benefit of FGA use for the treatment of allergic rhinitis in the US was -US4.2 billion dollars (-US 36 billion dollars to +US 0.296 billion dollars). The net benefit was negative in 97% of the 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The societal benefits of FGA use in alleviating the symptoms of allergic rhinitis are significant. However, based on the assumptions, probability distributions and parameter estimate ranges used in the current model, it is very likely that the costs associated with sedation exceed the benefits of FGA use in the US. The cost of FGA-associated sedation is comparable to estimates of the cost of all medical care expenditures on respiratory conditions in the US (US 12.1 billion dollars to US 31.3 billion dollars) [1996 values] and provides compelling evidence of the economic burden of sedation associated with FGA use.
Approaches to Resource Allocation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dressel, Paul; Simon, Lou Anna Kimsey

1976-01-01

Various budgeting patterns and strategies are currently in use, each with its own particular strengths and weaknesses. Neither cost-benefit analysis nor cost-effectiveness analysis offers any better solution to the allocation problem than do the unsupported contentions of departments or the historical unit costs. An operable model that performs…

Using participative inquiry in usability analysis to align a development team's mental model with its users' needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneifel, A. A.; Guerrero, C.

2003-01-01

In this web site usability case study, two methods of participative inquiry are used to align a development team's objectives with their users' needs and to promote the team awareness of the benefit of qualitative usability analysis.
Digital telephony analysis model and issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keuthan, Lynn M.

1995-09-01

Experts in the fields of digital telephony and communications security have stated the need for an analytical tool for evaluating complex issues. Some important policy issues discussed by experts recently include implementing digital wire-taps, implementation of the 'Clipper Chip', required registration of encryption/decryption keys, and export control of cryptographic equipment. Associated with the implementation of these policies are direct costs resulting from implementation, indirect cost benefits from implementation, and indirect costs resulting from the risks of implementation or factors reducing cost benefits. Presented herein is a model for analyzing digital telephony policies and systems and their associated direct costs and indirect benefit and risk factors. In order to present the structure of the model, issues of national importance and business-related issues are discussed. The various factors impacting the implementation of the associated communications systems and communications security are summarized, and various implementation tradeoffs are compared based on economic benefits/impact. The importance of the issues addressed herein, as well as other digital telephony issues, has greatly increased with the enormous increases in communication system connectivity due to the advance of the National Information Infrastructure.
The role of modelling in prioritising and planning clinical trials.

PubMed

Chilcott, J; Brennan, A; Booth, A; Karnon, J; Tappenden, P

2003-01-01

To identify the role of modelling in planning and prioritising trials. The review focuses on modelling methods used in the construction of disease models and on methods for their analysis and interpretation. Searches were initially developed in MEDLINE and then translated into other databases. Systematic reviews of the methodological and case study literature were undertaken. Search strategies focused on the intersection between three domains: modelling, health technology assessment and prioritisation. The review found that modelling can extend the validity of trials by: generalising from trial populations to specific target groups; generalising to other settings and countries; extrapolating trial outcomes to the longer term; linking intermediate outcome measures to final outcomes; extending analysis to the relevant comparators; adjusting for prognostic factors in trials; and synthesising research results. The review suggested that modelling may offer greatest benefits where the impact of a technology occurs over a long duration, where disease/technology characteristics are not observable, where there are long lead times in research, or for rapidly changing technologies. It was also found that modelling can inform the key parameters for research: sample size, trial duration and population characteristics. One-way, multi-way and threshold sensitivity analysis have been used in informing these aspects but are flawed. The payback approach has been piloted and while there have been weaknesses in its implementation, the approach does have potential. Expected value of information analysis is the only existing methodology that has been applied in practice and can address all these issues. The potential benefit of this methodology is that the value of research is directly related to its impact on technology commissioning decisions, and is demonstrated in real and absolute rather than relative terms; it assesses the technical efficiency of different types of research. Modelling is not a substitute for data collection. However, modelling can identify trial designs of low priority in informing health technology commissioning decisions. Good practice in undertaking and reporting economic modelling studies requires further dissemination and support, specifically in sensitivity analyses, model validation and the reporting of assumptions. Case studies of the payback approach using stochastic sensitivity analyses should be developed. Use of overall expected value of perfect information should be encouraged in modelling studies seeking to inform prioritisation and planning of health technology assessments. Research is required to assess if the potential benefits of value of information analysis can be realised in practice; on the definition of an adequate objective function; on methods for analysing computationally expensive models; and on methods for updating prior probability distributions.
International workshop on ITS benefits : how evaluation results are used in transportation decision-making, November 9, 2000 Turin, Italy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-16

This paper demonstrates application of the principles of economic analysis to evaluate highway capacity expansion in an urban setting, using a sketch-planning model called Spreadsheet Model for Induced Travel Estimation (SMITE). The application takes...
A Structural Evaluation of a Large-Scale Quasi-Experimental Microfinance Initiative.

PubMed

Kaboski, Joseph P; Townsend, Robert M

2011-09-01

This paper uses a structural model to understand, predict, and evaluate the impact of an exogenous microcredit intervention program, the Thai Million Baht Village Fund program. We model household decisions in the face of borrowing constraints, income uncertainty, and high-yield indivisible investment opportunities. After estimation of parameters using pre-program data, we evaluate the model's ability to predict and interpret the impact of the village fund intervention. Simulations from the model mirror the data in yielding a greater increase in consumption than credit, which is interpreted as evidence of credit constraints. A cost-benefit analysis using the model indicates that some households value the program much more than its per household cost, but overall the program costs 20 percent more than the sum of these benefits.
Traffic Detector Handbook. Second Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS) Testbeds can make significant contributions in identifying the benefits of more effective, more active systems management, resulting from integrating transformative applications enabled by new data from wireless...
Optimal water management and conflict resolution: The Middle East Water Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Franklin M.; Arlosoroff, Shaul; Eckstein, Zvi; Haddadin, Munther; Hamati, Salem G.; Huber-Lee, Annette; Jarrar, Ammar; Jayyousi, Anan; Shamir, Uri; Wesseling, Hans

2002-11-01

In many situations, actual water markets will not allocate water resources optimally, largely because of the perceived social value of water. It is possible, however, to build optimizing models which, taking account of demand as well as supply considerations, can substitute for actual markets. Such models can assist the formation of water policies, taking into account user-supplied values and constraints. They provide powerful tools for the system-wide cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure; this is illustrated by an analysis of the need for desalination in Israel and the cost and benefits of adding a conveyance line. Further, the use of such models can facilitate cooperation in water, yielding gains that can be considerably greater than the value of the disputed water itself. This can turn what appear to be zero-sum games into win-win situations. The Middle East Water Project has built such a model for the Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian region. We find that the value of the water in dispute in the region is very small and the possible gains from cooperation are relatively large. Analysis of the scarcity value of water is a crucial feature.
Development and initial evaluation of the Clinical Information Systems Success Model (CISSM).

PubMed

Garcia-Smith, Dianna; Effken, Judith A

2013-06-01

Most clinical information systems (CIS) today are technically sound, but the number of successful implementations of these systems is low. The purpose of this study was to develop and test a theoretically based integrated CIS Success Model (CISSM) from the nurse perspective. Model predictors of CIS success were taken from existing research on information systems acceptance, user satisfaction, use intention, user behavior and perceptions, as well as clinical research. Data collected online from 234 registered nurses in four hospitals were used to test the model. Each nurse had used the Cerner Power Chart Admission Health Profile for at least 3 months. Psychometric testing and factor analysis of the 23-item CISSM instrument established its construct validity and reliability. Initial analysis showed nurses' satisfaction with and dependency on CIS use predicted their perceived CIS use Net Benefit. Further analysis identified Social Influence and Facilitating Conditions as other predictors of CIS user Net Benefit. The level of hospital CIS integration may account for the role of CIS Use Dependency in the success of CIS. Based on our experience, CISSM provides a formative as well as summative tool for evaluating CIS success from the nurse's perspective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Predicting degree of benefit from adjuvant trastuzumab in NSABP trial B-31.

PubMed

Pogue-Geile, Katherine L; Kim, Chungyeul; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon; Tanaka, Noriko; Bandos, Hanna; Gavin, Patrick G; Fumagalli, Debora; Goldstein, Lynn C; Sneige, Nour; Burandt, Eike; Taniyama, Yusuke; Bohn, Olga L; Lee, Ahwon; Kim, Seung-Il; Reilly, Megan L; Remillard, Matthew Y; Blackmon, Nicole L; Kim, Seong-Rim; Horne, Zachary D; Rastogi, Priya; Fehrenbacher, Louis; Romond, Edward H; Swain, Sandra M; Mamounas, Eleftherios P; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Geyer, Charles E; Costantino, Joseph P; Wolmark, Norman; Paik, Soonmyung

2013-12-04

National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) trial B-31 suggested the efficacy of adjuvant trastuzumab, even in HER2-negative breast cancer. This finding prompted us to develop a predictive model for degree of benefit from trastuzumab using archived tumor blocks from B-31. Case subjects with tumor blocks were randomly divided into discovery (n = 588) and confirmation cohorts (n = 991). A predictive model was built from the discovery cohort through gene expression profiling of 462 genes with nCounter assay. A predefined cut point for the predictive model was tested in the confirmation cohort. Gene-by-treatment interaction was tested with Cox models, and correlations between variables were assessed with Spearman correlation. Principal component analysis was performed on the final set of selected genes. All statistical tests were two-sided. Eight predictive genes associated with HER2 (ERBB2, c17orf37, GRB7) or ER (ESR1, NAT1, GATA3, CA12, IGF1R) were selected for model building. Three-dimensional subset treatment effect pattern plot using two principal components of these genes was used to identify a subset with no benefit from trastuzumab, characterized by intermediate-level ERBB2 and high-level ESR1 mRNA expression. In the confirmation set, the predefined cut points for this model classified patients into three subsets with differential benefit from trastuzumab with hazard ratios of 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67 to 3.69; P = .29; n = 100), 0.60 (95% CI = 0.41 to 0.89; P = .01; n = 449), and 0.28 (95% CI = 0.20 to 0.41; P < .001; n = 442; P(interaction) between the model and trastuzumab < .001). We developed a gene expression-based predictive model for degree of benefit from trastuzumab and demonstrated that HER2-negative tumors belong to the moderate benefit group, thus providing justification for testing trastuzumab in HER2-negative patients (NSABP B-47).
Predicting Degree of Benefit From Adjuvant Trastuzumab in NSABP Trial B-31

PubMed Central

Pogue-Geile, Katherine L.; Kim, Chungyeul; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon; Tanaka, Noriko; Bandos, Hanna; Gavin, Patrick G.; Fumagalli, Debora; Goldstein, Lynn C.; Sneige, Nour; Burandt, Eike; Taniyama, Yusuke; Bohn, Olga L.; Lee, Ahwon; Kim, Seung-Il; Reilly, Megan L.; Remillard, Matthew Y.; Blackmon, Nicole L.; Kim, Seong-Rim; Horne, Zachary D.; Rastogi, Priya; Fehrenbacher, Louis; Romond, Edward H.; Swain, Sandra M.; Mamounas, Eleftherios P.; Wickerham, D. Lawrence; Geyer, Charles E.; Costantino, Joseph P.; Wolmark, Norman

2013-01-01

Background National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) trial B-31 suggested the efficacy of adjuvant trastuzumab, even in HER2-negative breast cancer. This finding prompted us to develop a predictive model for degree of benefit from trastuzumab using archived tumor blocks from B-31. Methods Case subjects with tumor blocks were randomly divided into discovery (n = 588) and confirmation cohorts (n = 991). A predictive model was built from the discovery cohort through gene expression profiling of 462 genes with nCounter assay. A predefined cut point for the predictive model was tested in the confirmation cohort. Gene-by-treatment interaction was tested with Cox models, and correlations between variables were assessed with Spearman correlation. Principal component analysis was performed on the final set of selected genes. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Eight predictive genes associated with HER2 (ERBB2, c17orf37, GRB7) or ER (ESR1, NAT1, GATA3, CA12, IGF1R) were selected for model building. Three-dimensional subset treatment effect pattern plot using two principal components of these genes was used to identify a subset with no benefit from trastuzumab, characterized by intermediate-level ERBB2 and high-level ESR1 mRNA expression. In the confirmation set, the predefined cut points for this model classified patients into three subsets with differential benefit from trastuzumab with hazard ratios of 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67 to 3.69; P = .29; n = 100), 0.60 (95% CI = 0.41 to 0.89; P = .01; n = 449), and 0.28 (95% CI = 0.20 to 0.41; P < .001; n = 442; P interaction between the model and trastuzumab < .001). Conclusions We developed a gene expression–based predictive model for degree of benefit from trastuzumab and demonstrated that HER2-negative tumors belong to the moderate benefit group, thus providing justification for testing trastuzumab in HER2-negative patients (NSABP B-47). PMID:24262440
Practical Application of Model-based Programming and State-based Architecture to Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, Gregory; Ingham, Michel; Chung, Seung; Martin, Oliver; Williams, Brian

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation to develop models from systems engineers that accomplish mission objectives and manage the health of the system is shown. The topics include: 1) Overview; 2) Motivation; 3) Objective/Vision; 4) Approach; 5) Background: The Mission Data System; 6) Background: State-based Control Architecture System; 7) Background: State Analysis; 8) Overview of State Analysis; 9) Background: MDS Software Frameworks; 10) Background: Model-based Programming; 10) Background: Titan Model-based Executive; 11) Model-based Execution Architecture; 12) Compatibility Analysis of MDS and Titan Architectures; 13) Integrating Model-based Programming and Execution into the Architecture; 14) State Analysis and Modeling; 15) IMU Subsystem State Effects Diagram; 16) Titan Subsystem Model: IMU Health; 17) Integrating Model-based Programming and Execution into the Software IMU; 18) Testing Program; 19) Computationally Tractable State Estimation & Fault Diagnosis; 20) Diagnostic Algorithm Performance; 21) Integration and Test Issues; 22) Demonstrated Benefits; and 23) Next Steps
To Spray or Not to Spray: A Decision Analysis of Coffee Berry Borer in Hawaii

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Integrated pest management strategies were adopted to combat the coffee berry borer (CBB) after its arrival in Hawaii in 2010. A decision tree framework is used to model the CBB integrated pest management recommendations, for potential use by growers and to assist in developing and evaluating management strategies and policies. The model focuses on pesticide spraying (spray/no spray) as the most significant pest management decision within each period over the entire crop season. The main result from the analysis suggests the most important parameter to maximize net benefit is to ensure a low initial infestation level. A second result looks at the impact of a subsidy for the cost of pesticides and shows a typical farmer receives a positive net benefit of $947.17. Sensitivity analysis of parameters checks the robustness of the model and further confirms the importance of a low initial infestation level vis-a-vis any level of subsidy. The use of a decision tree is shown to be an effective method for understanding integrated pest management strategies and solutions. PMID:29065464
Benefit-cost analysis of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) control: incorporating market and non-market values.

PubMed

Chang, Wei-Yew; Lantz, Van A; Hennigar, Chris R; MacLean, David A

2012-01-01

This study employs a benefit-cost analysis framework to estimate market and non-market benefits and costs of controlling future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks on Crown forest lands in New Brunswick, Canada. We used: (i) an advanced timber supply model to project potential timber volume saved, timber value benefits, and costs of pest control efforts; and (ii) a recent contingent valuation method analysis that evaluated non-market benefits (i.e., changes in recreation opportunities and existence values) of controlling future spruce budworm outbreaks in the Province. A total of six alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two uncontrolled future budworm outbreak severities (moderate vs. severe) and, for each severity, three control program levels (protecting 10%, 20%, or 40% of the susceptible Crown land forest area). The economic criteria used to evaluate each scenario included benefit-cost ratios and net present values. Under severe outbreak conditions, results indicated that the highest benefit-cost ratio (4.04) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area, and the highest net present value ($111 M) occurred when protecting 20% (568,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Under moderate outbreak conditions, the highest benefit-cost ratio (3.24) and net present value ($58.7 M) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Inclusion of non-market values generally increased the benefit-cost ratios and net present values of the control programs, and in some cases, led to higher levels of control being supported. Results of this study highlight the importance of including non-market values into the decision making process of forest pest management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Attitudes toward psychotropic medications among patients with chronic psychiatric disorders and their family caregivers

PubMed Central

Grover, Sandeep; Chakrabarti, Subho; Sharma, Aarti; Tyagi, Shikha

2014-01-01

Aim: To examine attitudes towards psychotropic medications among patients with chronic psychiatric disorders as well as their family caregivers by using factor analysis. Materials and Methods: The study included 200 patients and their family caregivers with chronic psychiatric disorders who are attending the psychiatry outpatient services. A self-designed 18-item self-rated questionnaire was used to evaluate the attitude toward psychotropics and factor analysis was done to study the different models of attitudes. Results: In general both patients and caregivers had positive attitude toward the psychotropic medications and there was no significant difference between the patients and caregivers on the various items of the questionnaire assessing the attitude. Factor analysis of the questionnaire indicated that either two-factor or four-factor models explained the attitude of the patients and caregivers. In the two-factor model there was one positive and one negative attitude factor, whereas the four-factor model comprised of two positive and two negative attitude factors. The four-factor model of attitudes provided a more comprehensive solution to how attitudes might be formed among patients and their family caregivers. Factors one and four in the four-factor solution still reflected positive attitudes, but appeared to portray a risk-benefit approach, in which benefits such as the efficacy of psychotropic medications in treating mental illnesses and preventing relapse, and medications being better than other options were being contrasted with the risks of side effects and permanent damage or harm. Conclusion: Attitudes of patients with chronic psychiatric disorders and their caregivers toward psychotropic medications appear to be shaped by factors such as perceived efficacy or benefit from medicines, the necessity for taking treatment and concerns such as side effects, harm or expense. PMID:25288840
Benefit-cost analysis of commercially available activated carbon filters for indoor ozone removal in single-family homes.

PubMed

Aldred, J R; Darling, E; Morrison, G; Siegel, J; Corsi, R L

2016-06-01

This study involved the development of a model for evaluating the potential costs and benefits of ozone control by activated carbon filtration in single-family homes. The modeling effort included the prediction of indoor ozone with and without activated carbon filtration in the HVAC system. As one application, the model was used to predict benefit-to-cost ratios for single-family homes in 12 American cities in five different climate zones. Health benefits were evaluated using disability-adjusted life-years and included city-specific age demographics for each simulation. Costs of commercially available activated carbon filters included capital cost differences when compared to conventional HVAC filters of similar particle removal efficiency, energy penalties due to additional pressure drop, and regional utility rates. The average indoor ozone removal effectiveness ranged from 4 to 20% across the 12 target cities and was largely limited by HVAC system operation time. For the parameters selected in this study, the mean predicted benefit-to-cost ratios for 1-inch filters were >1.0 in 10 of the 12 cities. The benefits of residential activated carbon filters were greatest in cities with high seasonal ozone and HVAC usage, suggesting the importance of targeting such conditions for activated carbon filter applications. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Countervailing effects of income, air pollution, smoking, and obesity on aging and life expectancy: population-based study of U.S. Counties.

PubMed

Allen, Ryan T; Hales, Nicholas M; Baccarelli, Andrea; Jerrett, Michael; Ezzati, Majid; Dockery, Douglas W; Pope, C Arden

2016-08-12

Income, air pollution, obesity, and smoking are primary factors associated with human health and longevity in population-based studies. These four factors may have countervailing impacts on longevity. This analysis investigates longevity trade-offs between air pollution and income, and explores how relative effects of income and air pollution on human longevity are potentially influenced by accounting for smoking and obesity. County-level data from 2,996 U.S. counties were analyzed in a cross-sectional analysis to investigate relationships between longevity and the four factors of interest: air pollution (mean 1999-2008 PM2.5), median income, smoking, and obesity. Two longevity measures were used: life expectancy (LE) and an exceptional aging (EA) index. Linear regression, generalized additive regression models, and bivariate thin-plate smoothing splines were used to estimate the benefits of living in counties with higher incomes or lower PM2.5. Models were estimated with and without controls for smoking, obesity, and other factors. Models which account for smoking and obesity result in substantially smaller estimates of the effects of income and pollution on longevity. Linear regression models without these two variables estimate that a $1,000 increase in median income (1 μg/m(3) decrease in PM2.5) corresponds to a 27.39 (33.68) increase in EA and a 0.14 (0.12) increase in LE, whereas models that control for smoking and obesity estimate only a 12.32 (20.22) increase in EA and a 0.07 (0.05) increase in LE. Nonlinear models and thin-plate smoothing splines also illustrate that, at higher levels of income, the relative benefits of the income-pollution tradeoff changed-the benefit of higher incomes diminished relative to the benefit of lower air pollution exposure. Higher incomes and lower levels of air pollution both correspond with increased human longevity. Adjusting for smoking and obesity reduces estimates of the benefits of higher income and lower air pollution exposure. This adjustment also alters the tradeoff between income and pollution: increases in income become less beneficial relative to a fixed reduction in air pollution-especially at higher levels of income.
Discounting the distant future-Data on Australian discount rates estimated by a stochastic interest rate model.

PubMed

Truong, Chi; Trück, Stefan

2017-04-01

Data on certainty equivalent discount factors and discount rates for stochastic interest rates in Australia are provided in this paper. The data has been used for the analysis of investments into climate adaptation projects in ׳It׳s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events ׳ (Truong and Trück, 2016) [3] and can be used for other cost-benefit analysis studies in Australia. The data is of particular interest for the discounting of projects that create monetary costs and benefits in the distant future.
Applying quantitative adiposity feature analysis models to predict benefit of bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in ovarian cancer patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yunzhi; Qiu, Yuchen; Thai, Theresa; More, Kathleen; Ding, Kai; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2016-03-01

How to rationally identify epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients who will benefit from bevacizumab or other antiangiogenic therapies is a critical issue in EOC treatments. The motivation of this study is to quantitatively measure adiposity features from CT images and investigate the feasibility of predicting potential benefit of EOC patients with or without receiving bevacizumab-based chemotherapy treatment using multivariate statistical models built based on quantitative adiposity image features. A dataset involving CT images from 59 advanced EOC patients were included. Among them, 32 patients received maintenance bevacizumab after primary chemotherapy and the remaining 27 patients did not. We developed a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to automatically segment subcutaneous fat areas (VFA) and visceral fat areas (SFA) and then extracted 7 adiposity-related quantitative features. Three multivariate data analysis models (linear regression, logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression) were performed respectively to investigate the potential association between the model-generated prediction results and the patients' progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The results show that using all 3 statistical models, a statistically significant association was detected between the model-generated results and both of the two clinical outcomes in the group of patients receiving maintenance bevacizumab (p<0.01), while there were no significant association for both PFS and OS in the group of patients without receiving maintenance bevacizumab. Therefore, this study demonstrated the feasibility of using quantitative adiposity-related CT image features based statistical prediction models to generate a new clinical marker and predict the clinical outcome of EOC patients receiving maintenance bevacizumab-based chemotherapy.
Smoke alarm giveaway and installation programs: an economic evaluation.

PubMed

Liu, Ying; Mack, Karin A; Diekman, Shane T

2012-10-01

The burden of residential fire injury and death is substantial. Targeted smoke alarm giveaway and installation programs are popular interventions used to reduce residential fire mortality and morbidity. To evaluate the cost effectiveness and cost benefit of implementing a giveaway or installation program in a small hypothetic community with a high risk of fire death and injury through a decision-analysis model. Model inputs included program costs; program effectiveness (life-years and quality-adjusted life-years saved); and monetized program benefits (medical cost, productivity, property loss and quality-of-life losses averted) and were identified through structured reviews of existing literature (done in 2011) and supplemented by expert opinion. Future costs and effectiveness were discounted at a rate of 3% per year. All costs were expressed in 2011 U.S. dollars. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) resulted in an average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) of $51,404 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved and $45,630 per QALY for the giveaway and installation programs, respectively. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) showed that both programs were associated with a positive net benefit with a benefit-cost ratio of 2.1 and 2.3, respectively. Smoke alarm functional rate, baseline prevalence of functional alarms, and baseline home fire death rate were among the most influential factors for the CEA and CBA results. Both giveaway and installation programs have an average cost-effectiveness ratio similar to or lower than the median cost-effectiveness ratio reported for other interventions to reduce fatal injuries in homes. Although more effort is required, installation programs result in lower cost per outcome achieved compared with giveaways. Published by Elsevier Inc.
[Environmental quality assessment of regional agro-ecosystem in Loess Plateau].

PubMed

Wang, Limei; Meng, Fanping; Zheng, Jiyong; Wang, Zhonglin

2004-03-01

Based on the detection and analysis of the contamination status of agro-ecosystem with apple-crops intercropping as the dominant cropping model in Loess Plateau, the individual factor and comprehensive environmental quality were assessed by multilevel fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and improved standard weight deciding method. The results showed that the quality of soil, water and agricultural products was grade I, the social economical environmental quality was grade II, the ecological environmental quality was grade III, and the comprehensive environmental quality was grade I. The regional agro-ecosystem dominated by apple-crops intercropping was not the best model for the ecological benefits, but had the better social economical benefits.

A method to assess the allocation suitability of recreational activities: An economic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hsiao-Lin

1996-03-01

Most existing methods of planning focus on development of a recreational area; less consideration is placed on the allocation of recreational activities within a recreational area. Most existing research emphasizes the economic benefits of developing a recreational area; few authors assessed the allocation suitability of recreational activities from an economic point of view. The purpose of this work was to develop a model to assess the allocation suitability of recreational activities according to the application of a concept of analysis of cost and benefit under a premise of ecological concern. The model was verified with a case study of Taiwan. We suggest that the proposed model should form a critical part of recreational planning.
A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVALUATION OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

EPA Science Inventory

A computational framework is presented for analyzing the uncertainty in model estimates of water quality benefits of best management practices (BMPs) in two small (<10 km²) watersheds in Indiana. The analysis specifically recognizes the significance of the difference b...
Cost-benefit analysis simulation of a hospital-based violence intervention program.

PubMed

Purtle, Jonathan; Rich, Linda J; Bloom, Sandra L; Rich, John A; Corbin, Theodore J

2015-02-01

Violent injury is a major cause of disability, premature mortality, and health disparities worldwide. Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs) show promise in preventing violent injury. Little is known, however, about how the impact of HVIPs may translate into monetary figures. To conduct a cost-benefit analysis simulation to estimate the savings an HVIP might produce in healthcare, criminal justice, and lost productivity costs over 5 years in a hypothetical population of 180 violently injured patients, 90 of whom received HVIP intervention and 90 of whom did not. Primary data from 2012, analyzed in 2013, on annual HVIP costs/number of clients served and secondary data sources were used to estimate the cost, number, and type of violent reinjury incidents (fatal/nonfatal, resulting in hospitalization/not resulting in hospitalization) and violent perpetration incidents (aggravated assault/homicide) that this population might experience over 5 years. Four different models were constructed and three different estimates of HVIP effect size (20%, 25%, and 30%) were used to calculate a range of estimates for HVIP net savings and cost-benefit ratios from different payer perspectives. All benefits were discounted at 5% to adjust for their net present value. Estimates of HVIP cost savings at the base effect estimate of 25% ranged from $82,765 (narrowest model) to $4,055,873 (broadest model). HVIPs are likely to produce cost savings. This study provides a systematic framework for the economic evaluation of HVIPs and estimates of HVIP cost savings and cost-benefit ratios that may be useful in informing public policy decisions. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Hepatic Resection for Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Beard, Stephen M.; Holmes, Michael; Price, Charles; Majeed, Ali W.

2000-01-01

Objective To analyze the cost-effectiveness of resection for liver metastases compared with standard nonsurgical cytotoxic treatment. Summary Background Data The efficacy of hepatic resection for metastases from colorectal cancer has been debated, despite reported 5-year survival rates of 20% to 40%. Resection is confined to specialized centers and is not widely available, perhaps because of lack of appropriate expertise, resources, or awareness of its efficacy. The cost-effectiveness of resection is important from the perspective of managed care in the United States and for the commissioning of health services in the United Kingdom. Methods A simple decision-based model was developed to evaluate the marginal costs and health benefits of hepatic resection. Estimates of resectability for liver metastases were taken from UK-reported case series data. The results of 100 hepatic resections conducted in Sheffield from 1997 to 1999 were used for the cost calculation of liver resection. Survival data from published series of resections were compiled to estimate the incremental cost per life-year gained (LYG) because of the short period of follow-up in the Sheffield series. Results Hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastases provides an estimated marginal benefit of 1.6 life-years (undiscounted) at a marginal cost of £6,742. If 17% of patients have only palliative resections, the overall cost per LYG is approximately £5,236 (£5,985 with discounted benefits). If potential benefits are extended to include 20-year survival rates, these figures fall to approximately £1,821 (£2,793 with discounted benefits). Further univariate sensitivity analysis of key model parameters showed the cost per LYG to be consistently less than £15,000. Conclusion In this model, hepatic resection appears highly cost-effective compared with nonsurgical treatments for colorectal-related liver metastases. PMID:11088071
Cost-Effectiveness of a Home Based Intervention for Secondary Prevention of Readmission with Chronic Heart Disease

PubMed Central

Byrnes, Joshua; Carrington, Melinda; Chan, Yih-Kai; Pollicino, Christine; Dubrowin, Natalie; Stewart, Simon; Scuffham, Paul A.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to consider the cost-effectiveness of a nurse-led, home-based intervention (HBI) in cardiac patients with private health insurance compared to usual post-discharge care. A within trial analysis of the Young @ Heart multicentre, randomized controlled trial along with a micro-simulation decision analytical model was conducted to estimate the incremental costs and quality adjusted life years associated with the home based intervention compared to usual care. For the micro-simulation model, future costs, from the perspective of the funder, and effects are estimated over a twenty-year time horizon. An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio, along with Incremental Net Monetary Benefit, is evaluated using a willingness to pay threshold of $50,000 per quality adjusted life year. Sub-group analyses are conducted for men and women across three age groups separately. Costs and benefits that arise in the future are discounted at five percent per annum. Overall, home based intervention for secondary prevention in patients with chronic heart disease identified in the Australian private health care sector is not cost-effective. The estimated within trial incremental net monetary benefit is -$3,116 [95%CI: -11,145, $4,914]; indicating that the costs outweigh the benefits. However, for males and in particular males aged 75 years and above, home based intervention indicated a potential to reduce health care costs when compared to usual care (within trial: -$10,416 [95%CI: -$26,745, $5,913]; modelled analysis: -$1,980 [95%CI: -$22,843, $14,863]). This work provides a crucial impetus for future research to understand for whom disease management programs are likely to benefit most. PMID:26657844
New directions in valuing geospatial information - how to value goespatial information for policy and business decisioins in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smart, A. C.

2014-12-01

Governments are increasingly asking for more evidence of the benefits of investing in geospatial data and infrastructure before investing. They are looking for a clearer articulation of the economic, environmental and social benefits than has been possble in the past. Development of techniques has accelerated in the past five years as governments and industry become more involved in the capture and use of geospatial data. However evaluation practitioners have struggled to answer these emerging questions. The paper explores the types of questions that decision makers are asking and discusses the different approaches and methods that have been used recently to answer them. It explores the need for better buisness case models. The emerging approaches are then discussed and their attributes reviewed. These include methods of analysing tengible economic benefits, intangible benefits and societal benefits. The paper explores the use of value chain analysis and real options analysis to better articulate the impacts on international competitiveness and how to value the potential benefits of innovations enabled by the geospatial data that is produced. The paper concludes by illustrating the potential for these techniques in current and future decision making.
A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models‡

PubMed Central

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:21905066
Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the relevance of accounting for the full range of flood events and their relation to both potential damages and benefits in risk assessments. Management measures may thus be designed to reflect local contexts and support benefits of natural hydrologic processes, while minimizing flood damage.
Heads Up! a Calculation- & Jargon-Free Approach to Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giese, Alan R.

2012-01-01

Evaluating the strength of evidence in noisy data is a critical step in scientific thinking that typically relies on statistics. Students without statistical training will benefit from heuristic models that highlight the logic of statistical analysis. The likelihood associated with various coin-tossing outcomes gives students such a model. There…
Integrating Transportation Modeling and Desktop GIS: A Practical and Affordable Analysis Tool for Small and Medium Sized Communities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-16

This paper and presentation discuss some of the benefits of integrating travel : demand models and desktop GIS (ArchInfo and ArcView for PCs) as a : cost-effective and staff saving tool, as well as specific improvements to : transportation planning m...
Benefits of statistical molecular design, covariance analysis, and reference models in QSAR: a case study on acetylcholinesterase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, C. David; Hillgren, J. Mikael; Lindgren, Cecilia; Qian, Weixing; Akfur, Christine; Berg, Lotta; Ekström, Fredrik; Linusson, Anna

2015-03-01

Scientific disciplines such as medicinal- and environmental chemistry, pharmacology, and toxicology deal with the questions related to the effects small organic compounds exhort on biological targets and the compounds' physicochemical properties responsible for these effects. A common strategy in this endeavor is to establish structure-activity relationships (SARs). The aim of this work was to illustrate benefits of performing a statistical molecular design (SMD) and proper statistical analysis of the molecules' properties before SAR and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis. Our SMD followed by synthesis yielded a set of inhibitors of the enzyme acetylcholinesterase (AChE) that had very few inherent dependencies between the substructures in the molecules. If such dependencies exist, they cause severe errors in SAR interpretation and predictions by QSAR-models, and leave a set of molecules less suitable for future decision-making. In our study, SAR- and QSAR models could show which molecular sub-structures and physicochemical features that were advantageous for the AChE inhibition. Finally, the QSAR model was used for the prediction of the inhibition of AChE by an external prediction set of molecules. The accuracy of these predictions was asserted by statistical significance tests and by comparisons to simple but relevant reference models.
Preliminary Results Obtained in Integrated Safety Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.

2003-01-01

The goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to develop and demonstrate technologies that contribute to a reduction in the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of 5 by the year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by the year 2022. Integrated safety analysis of day-to-day operations and risks within those operations will provide an understanding of the Aviation Safety Program portfolio. Safety benefits analyses are currently being conducted. Preliminary results for the Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) and Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) projects of the AvSP have been completed by the Logistics Management Institute under a contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. These analyses include both a reliability analysis and a computer simulation model. The integrated safety analysis method comprises two principal components: a reliability model and a simulation model. In the reliability model, the results indicate how different technologies and systems will perform in normal, degraded, and failed modes of operation. In the simulation, an operational scenario is modeled. The primary purpose of the SVS project is to improve safety by providing visual-flightlike situation awareness during instrument conditions. The current analyses are an estimate of the benefits of SVS in avoiding controlled flight into terrain. The scenario modeled has an aircraft flying directly toward a terrain feature. When the flight crew determines that the aircraft is headed toward an obstruction, the aircraft executes a level turn at speed. The simulation is ended when the aircraft completes the turn.
A quantitative study of the benefits of co-regulation using the spoIIA operon as an example

PubMed Central

Iber, Dagmar

2006-01-01

The distribution of most genes is not random, and functionally linked genes are often found in clusters. Several theories have been put forward to explain the emergence and persistence of operons in bacteria. Careful analysis of genomic data favours the co-regulation model, where gene organization into operons is driven by the benefits of coordinated gene expression and regulation. Direct evidence that coexpression increases the individual's fitness enough to ensure operon formation and maintenance is, however, still lacking. Here, a previously described quantitative model of the network that controls the transcription factor σF during sporulation in Bacillus subtilis is employed to quantify the benefits arising from both organization of the sporulation genes into the spoIIA operon and from translational coupling. The analysis shows that operon organization, together with translational coupling, is important because of the inherent stochastic nature of gene expression, which skews the ratios between protein concentrations in the absence of co-regulation. The predicted impact of different forms of gene regulation on fitness and survival agrees quantitatively with published sporulation efficiencies. PMID:16924264
A quantitative study of the benefits of co-regulation using the spoIIA operon as an example.

PubMed

Iber, Dagmar

2006-01-01

The distribution of most genes is not random, and functionally linked genes are often found in clusters. Several theories have been put forward to explain the emergence and persistence of operons in bacteria. Careful analysis of genomic data favours the co-regulation model, where gene organization into operons is driven by the benefits of coordinated gene expression and regulation. Direct evidence that coexpression increases the individual's fitness enough to ensure operon formation and maintenance is, however, still lacking. Here, a previously described quantitative model of the network that controls the transcription factor sigma(F) during sporulation in Bacillus subtilis is employed to quantify the benefits arising from both organization of the sporulation genes into the spoIIA operon and from translational coupling. The analysis shows that operon organization, together with translational coupling, is important because of the inherent stochastic nature of gene expression, which skews the ratios between protein concentrations in the absence of co-regulation. The predicted impact of different forms of gene regulation on fitness and survival agrees quantitatively with published sporulation efficiencies.
Cost-effectiveness of dryland forest restoration evaluated by spatial analysis of ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Birch, Jennifer C.; Newton, Adrian C.; Aquino, Claudia Alvarez; Cantarello, Elena; Echeverría, Cristian; Kitzberger, Thomas; Schiappacasse, Ignacio; Garavito, Natalia Tejedor

2010-01-01

Although ecological restoration is widely used to combat environmental degradation, very few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this approach. We examine the potential impact of forest restoration on the value of multiple ecosystem services across four dryland areas in Latin America, by estimating the net value of ecosystem service benefits under different reforestation scenarios. The values of selected ecosystem services were mapped under each scenario, supported by the use of a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. We explored the economic potential of a change in land use from livestock grazing to restored native forest using different discount rates and performed a cost–benefit analysis of three restoration scenarios. Results show that passive restoration is cost-effective for all study areas on the basis of the services analyzed, whereas the benefits from active restoration are generally outweighed by the relatively high costs involved. These findings were found to be relatively insensitive to discount rate but were sensitive to the market value of carbon. Substantial variation in values was recorded between study areas, demonstrating that ecosystem service values are strongly context specific. However, spatial analysis enabled localized areas of net benefits to be identified, indicating the value of this approach for identifying the relative costs and benefits of restoration interventions across a landscape. PMID:21106761
Cost-effectiveness of dryland forest restoration evaluated by spatial analysis of ecosystem services.

PubMed

Birch, Jennifer C; Newton, Adrian C; Aquino, Claudia Alvarez; Cantarello, Elena; Echeverría, Cristian; Kitzberger, Thomas; Schiappacasse, Ignacio; Garavito, Natalia Tejedor

2010-12-14

Although ecological restoration is widely used to combat environmental degradation, very few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this approach. We examine the potential impact of forest restoration on the value of multiple ecosystem services across four dryland areas in Latin America, by estimating the net value of ecosystem service benefits under different reforestation scenarios. The values of selected ecosystem services were mapped under each scenario, supported by the use of a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. We explored the economic potential of a change in land use from livestock grazing to restored native forest using different discount rates and performed a cost-benefit analysis of three restoration scenarios. Results show that passive restoration is cost-effective for all study areas on the basis of the services analyzed, whereas the benefits from active restoration are generally outweighed by the relatively high costs involved. These findings were found to be relatively insensitive to discount rate but were sensitive to the market value of carbon. Substantial variation in values was recorded between study areas, demonstrating that ecosystem service values are strongly context specific. However, spatial analysis enabled localized areas of net benefits to be identified, indicating the value of this approach for identifying the relative costs and benefits of restoration interventions across a landscape.
COST-RISK-BENEFIT ANALYSIS IN DIAGNOSTIC RADIOLOGY: A THEORETICAL AND ECONOMIC BASIS FOR RADIATION PROTECTION OF THE PATIENT.

PubMed

Moores, B Michael

2016-06-01

In 1973, International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 22 recommended that the acceptability of radiation exposure levels for a given activity should be determined by a process of cost-benefit analysis. It was felt that this approach could be used to underpin both the principle of ALARA as well for justification purposes. The net benefit, B, of an operation involving irradiation was regarded as equal to the difference between its gross benefit, V, and the sum of three components; the basic production cost associated with the operation, P; the cost of achieving the selected level of protection, X; and the cost Y of the detriment involved in the operation: [Formula: see text] This article presents a theoretical cost-risk-benefit analysis that is applicable to the diagnostic accuracy (Levels 1 and 2) of the hierarchical efficacy model presented by National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements in 1992. This enables the costs of an examination to be related to the sensitivity and specificity of an X-ray examination within a defined clinical problem setting and introduces both false-positive/false-negative diagnostic outcomes into the patient radiation protection framework. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.
Do generous unemployment benefit programs reduce suicide rates? A state fixed-effect analysis covering 1968-2008.

PubMed

Cylus, Jonathan; Glymour, M Maria; Avendano, Mauricio

2014-07-01

The recent economic recession has led to increases in suicide, but whether US state unemployment insurance programs ameliorate this association has not been examined. Exploiting US state variations in the generosity of benefit programs between 1968 and 2008, we tested the hypothesis that more generous unemployment benefit programs reduce the impact of economic downturns on suicide. Using state linear fixed-effect models, we found a negative additive interaction between unemployment rates and benefits among the US working-age (20-64 years) population (β = -0.57, 95% confidence interval: -0.86, -0.27; P < 0.001). The finding of a negative additive interaction was robust across multiple model specifications. Our results suggest that the impact of unemployment rates on suicide is offset by the presence of generous state unemployment benefit programs, though estimated effects are small in magnitude. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Optimizing Biorefinery Design and Operations via Linear Programming Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Talmadge, Michael; Batan, Liaw; Lamers, Patrick

The ability to assess and optimize economics of biomass resource utilization for the production of fuels, chemicals and power is essential for the ultimate success of a bioenergy industry. The team of authors, consisting of members from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has developed simple biorefinery linear programming (LP) models to enable the optimization of theoretical or existing biorefineries. The goal of this analysis is to demonstrate how such models can benefit the developing biorefining industry. It focuses on a theoretical multi-pathway, thermochemical biorefinery configuration and demonstrates how the biorefinery can use LPmore » models for operations planning and optimization in comparable ways to the petroleum refining industry. Using LP modeling tools developed under U.S. Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technologies Office (DOE-BETO) funded efforts, the authors investigate optimization challenges for the theoretical biorefineries such as (1) optimal feedstock slate based on available biomass and prices, (2) breakeven price analysis for available feedstocks, (3) impact analysis for changes in feedstock costs and product prices, (4) optimal biorefinery operations during unit shutdowns / turnarounds, and (5) incentives for increased processing capacity. These biorefinery examples are comparable to crude oil purchasing and operational optimization studies that petroleum refiners perform routinely using LPs and other optimization models. It is important to note that the analyses presented in this article are strictly theoretical and they are not based on current energy market prices. The pricing structure assigned for this demonstrative analysis is consistent with $4 per gallon gasoline, which clearly assumes an economic environment that would favor the construction and operation of biorefineries. The analysis approach and examples provide valuable insights into the usefulness of analysis tools for maximizing the potential benefits of biomass utilization for production of fuels, chemicals and power.« less
A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

PubMed

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Linkins, Jennifer; Sutter, Roland W; Aylward, R Bruce; Thompson, Kimberly M

2010-12-16

The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then. This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the program as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, we consider the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by two distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. We estimate GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), we estimate poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. Cost-effectiveness ratios for the GPEI vs. only routine vaccination qualify as highly cost-effective based on standard criteria. We estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI between 1988 and 2035 of approximately 40-50 billion dollars (2008 US dollars; 1988 net present values). Despite the high costs of achieving eradication in low-income countries, low-income countries account for approximately 85% of the total net benefits generated by the GPEI in the base case analysis. The total economic costs saved per prevented paralytic poliomyelitis case drive the incremental net benefits, which become positive even if we estimate the loss in productivity as a result of disability as below the recommended value of one year in average per-capita gross national income per disability-adjusted life year saved. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the finding of positive net benefits of the GPEI remains robust over a wide range of assumptions, and that consideration of the additional net benefits of externalities that occurred during polio campaigns to date, such as the mortality reduction associated with delivery of Vitamin A supplements, significantly increases the net benefits. This study finds a strong economic justification for the GPEI despite the rising costs of the initiative. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Practical Use of Computationally Frugal Model Analysis Methods

DOE PAGES

Hill, Mary C.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn; ...

2015-03-21

Computationally frugal methods of model analysis can provide substantial benefits when developing models of groundwater and other environmental systems. Model analysis includes ways to evaluate model adequacy and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Frugal methods typically require 10s of parallelizable model runs; their convenience allows for other uses of the computational effort. We suggest that model analysis be posed as a set of questions used to organize methods that range from frugal to expensive (requiring 10,000 model runs or more). This encourages focus on method utility, even when methods have starkly different theoretical backgrounds. We note that many frugalmore » methods are more useful when unrealistic process-model nonlinearities are reduced. Inexpensive diagnostics are identified for determining when frugal methods are advantageous. Examples from the literature are used to demonstrate local methods and the diagnostics. We suggest that the greater use of computationally frugal model analysis methods would allow questions such as those posed in this work to be addressed more routinely, allowing the environmental sciences community to obtain greater scientific insight from the many ongoing and future modeling efforts« less
A method for landscape analysis of forestry guidelines using bird habitat models and the Habplan harvest scheduler

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehle, C.; Van Deusen, P.; Wigley, T.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Rutzmoser, S.H.; Aggett, J.; Beebe, J.A.; Smith, M.L.

2006-01-01

Wildlife-habitat relationship models have sometimes been linked with forest simulators to aid in evaluating outcomes of forest management alternatives. However, linking wildlife-habitat models with harvest scheduling software would provide a more direct method for assessing economic and ecological implications of alternative harvest schedules in commercial forest operations. We demonstrate an approach for frontier analyses of wildlife benefits using the Habplan harvest scheduler and spatially explicit wildlife response models in the context of operational forest planning. We used the Habplan harvest scheduler to plan commercial forest management over a 40-year horizon at a landscape scale under five scenarios: unmanaged, an unlimited block-size option both with and without riparian buffers, three cases with different block-size restrictions, and a set-asides scenario in which older stands were withheld from cutting. The potential benefit to wildlife was projected based on spatial models of bird guild richness and species probability of detection. Harvested wood volume provided a measure of scenario costs, which provides an indication of management feasibility. Of nine species and guilds, none appeared to benefit from 50 m riparian buffers, response to an unmanaged scenario was mixed and expensive, and block-size restrictions (maximum harvest unit size) provided no apparent benefit and in some cases were possibly detrimental to bird richness. A set-aside regime, however, appeared to provide significant benefits to all species and groups, probably through increased landscape heterogeneity and increased availability of older forest. Our approach shows promise for evaluating costs and benefits of forest management guidelines in commercial forest enterprises and improves upon the state of the art by utilizing an optimizing harvest scheduler as in commercial forest management, multiple measures of biodiversity (models for multiple species and guilds), and spatially explicit wildlife response models. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Cost-benefit analysis of a Haemophilus influenzae type b meningitis prevention programme in The Philippines.

PubMed

Limcangco, M R; Armour, C L; Salole, E G; Taylor, S J

2001-01-01

Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) meningitis is associated with high mortality and serious sequelae in children under 5 years of age. Vaccines which can prevent this infection are available. To evaluate the costs and benefits of a 3-dose immunisation schedule in Manila, Philippines. Government and societal perspectives. A cost-benefit analysis based on a birth cohort of 100,000 children. The state of health of the cohort with and without a Hib immunisation programme was modelled over a 5-year period. A survey of medical records of patients with Hib in Manila provided data on the extent and cost of sequelae following infection. A 3-dose Hib vaccination programme given at ages 2, 3 and 4 months. The model predicted that vaccinating children against Hib meningitis would prevent 553 cases per year in a birth cohort of 100,000, at a cost of 56,200 Philippine pesos (PHP) [$US1,605; 1998 exchange rate] per case (base case assumptions of 90% vaccine efficacy rate, 95 per 100,000 Hib incidence rate, 85% vaccination coverage). Results from the cost-benefit analyses indicated that the saving to the government would be around PHP39 million ($US1.11 million), and the saving to society would be PHP255 million ($US7.28 million). There would be a positive economic benefit for the Philippine government and for the Filipino society if a Hib vaccination programme was introduced in Manila.
cost and benefits optimization model for fault-tolerant aircraft electronic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The factors involved in economic assessment of fault tolerant systems (FTS) and fault tolerant flight control systems (FTFCS) are discussed. Algorithms for optimization and economic analysis of FTFCS are documented.
Examination of the costs, benefits and enery conservation aspects of the NASA aircraft fuel conservation technology program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The costs and benefits of the NASA Aircraft Fuel Conservation Technology Program are discussed. Consideration is given to a present worth analysis of the planned program expenditures, an examination of the fuel savings to be obtained by the year 2005 and the worth of this fuel savings relative to the investment required, a comparison of the program funding with that planned by other Federal agencies for energy conservation, an examination of the private industry aeronautical research and technology financial posture for the period FY 76 - FY 85, and an assessment of the potential impacts on air and noise pollution. To aid in this analysis, a computerized fleet mix forecasting model was developed. This model enables the estimation of fuel consumption and present worth of fuel expenditures for selected commerical aircraft fleet mix scenarios.
Soil pH Errors Propagation from Measurements to Spatial Predictions - Cost Benefit Analysis and Risk Assessment Implications for Practitioners and Modelers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, P. R.; Libohova, Z.; Seybold, C. A.; Wills, S. A.; Peaslee, S.; Beaudette, D.; Lindbo, D. L.

2017-12-01

The measurement errors and spatial prediction uncertainties of soil properties in the modeling community are usually assessed against measured values when available. However, of equal importance is the assessment of errors and uncertainty impacts on cost benefit analysis and risk assessments. Soil pH was selected as one of the most commonly measured soil properties used for liming recommendations. The objective of this study was to assess the error size from different sources and their implications with respect to management decisions. Error sources include measurement methods, laboratory sources, pedotransfer functions, database transections, spatial aggregations, etc. Several databases of measured and predicted soil pH were used for this study including the United States National Cooperative Soil Survey Characterization Database (NCSS-SCDB), the US Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The distribution of errors among different sources from measurement methods to spatial aggregation showed a wide range of values. The greatest RMSE of 0.79 pH units was from spatial aggregation (SSURGO vs Kriging), while the measurement methods had the lowest RMSE of 0.06 pH units. Assuming the order of data acquisition based on the transaction distance i.e. from measurement method to spatial aggregation the RMSE increased from 0.06 to 0.8 pH units suggesting an "error propagation". This has major implications for practitioners and modeling community. Most soil liming rate recommendations are based on 0.1 pH unit increments, while the desired soil pH level increments are based on 0.4 to 0.5 pH units. Thus, even when the measured and desired target soil pH are the same most guidelines recommend 1 ton ha-1 lime, which translates in 111 ha-1 that the farmer has to factor in the cost-benefit analysis. However, this analysis need to be based on uncertainty predictions (0.5-1.0 pH units) rather than measurement errors (0.1 pH units) which would translate in 555-1,111 investment that need to be assessed against the risk. The modeling community can benefit from such analysis, however, error size and spatial distribution for global and regional predictions need to be assessed against the variability of other drivers and impact on management decisions.
Cost-benefit analysis of passive fire protections in road LPG transportation.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2012-02-01

The cost-benefit evaluation of passive fire protection adoption in the road transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was investigated. In a previous study, mathematical simulations of real scale fire scenarios proved the effectiveness of passive fire protections in preventing the "fired" boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), thus providing a significant risk reduction. In the present study the economical aspects of the adoption of fire protections are analyzed and an approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is proposed. The CBA model is based on the comparison of the risk reduction due to fire protections (expressed in monetary terms by the value of a statistical life) and the cost of the application of fire protections to a fleet of tankers. Different types of fire protections were considered, as well as the possibility to apply protections to the entire fleet or only to a part of it. The application of the proposed model to a real-life case study is presented and discussed. Results demonstrate that the adoption of passive fire protections on road tankers, though not compulsory in Europe, can be economically feasible, thus representing a concrete measure to achieve control of the "major hazard accidents" cited by the European legislation. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
The Three Gorges Project: How sustainable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kepa Brian Morgan, Te Kipa; Sardelic, Daniel N.; Waretini, Amaria F.

2012-08-01

SummaryIn 1984 the Government of China approved the decision to construct the Three Gorges Dam Project, the largest project since the Great Wall. The project had many barriers to overcome, and the decision was made at a time when sustainability was a relatively unknown concept. The decision to construct the Three Gorges Project remains contentious today, especially since Deputy Director of the Three Gorges Project Construction Committee, Wang Xiaofeng, stated that "We absolutely cannot relax our guard against ecological and environmental security problems sparked by the Three Gorges Project" (Bristow, 2007; McCabe, 2007). The question therefore was posed: how sustainable is the Three Gorges Project? Conventional approaches to sustainability assessment tend to use monetary based assessment aligned to triple bottom line thinking. That is, projects are evaluated as trade-offs between economic, environmental and social costs and benefits. The question of sustainability is considered using such a traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis approach, as undertaken in 1988 by a CIPM-Yangtze Joint Venture, and the Mauri Model Decision Making Framework (MMDMF). The Mauri Model differs from other approaches in that sustainability performance indicators are considered independently from any particular stakeholder bias. Bias is then introduced subsequently as a sensitivity analysis on the raw results obtained. The MMDMF is unique in that it is based on the Māori concept of Mauri, the binding force between the physical and the spiritual attributes of something, or the capacity to support life in the air, soil, and water. This concept of Mauri is analogous to the Chinese concept of Qi, and there are many analogous concepts in other cultures. It is the universal relevance of Mauri that allows its use to assess sustainability. This research identified that the MMDMF was a strong complement to Cost-Benefit Analysis, which is not designed as a sustainability assessment tool in itself. The MMDMF does have relevance in identifying areas of conflict, and it can support the Cost-Benefit Analysis in assessing sustainability, as a Decision Support Tool. The research concluded that, based on both models, the Three Gorges Project as understood in 1988, and incorporating more recent sustainability analysis is contributing to enhanced sustainability.
Understanding exercise uptake and adherence for people with chronic conditions: a new model demonstrating the importance of exercise identity, benefits of attending and support.

PubMed

Pentecost, C; Taket, A

2011-10-01

Understanding the factors influencing uptake and adherence to exercise for people with chronic conditions from different ages, genders and ethnicities is important for planning exercise services. This paper presents evidence supporting a new model of exercise uptake and adherence applicable to people with chronic conditions from diverse socio-demographic backgrounds. The study is based on 130 semi-structured interviews with people with chronic conditions, including both those who did and those who did not attend exercise services, and supporters of those who attended. Analysis followed the guidelines of 'framework analysis'. Results show that three factors were particularly important in influencing adherence behavior: (i) exercise identity, (ii) support and (iii) perceived benefits of attending. Social and cultural identities impacted on willingness to exercise, importance of exercise and perceived appropriateness of exercising. Having at least one supporter providing different types of support was associated with high levels of attendance. Those people who valued the social and psychological benefits of attending were more likely to be high attenders. The new model illustrates interaction between these three factors and discusses how these can be taken into account when planning exercise services for people with chronic conditions drawn from diverse socio-demographic groups.
Albedo impact on the suitability of biochar systems to mitigate global warming.

PubMed

Meyer, Sebastian; Bright, Ryan M; Fischer, Daniel; Schulz, Hardy; Glaser, Bruno

2012-11-20

Biochar application to agricultural soils can change the surface albedo which could counteract the climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems. However, the size of this impact has not yet been quantified. Based on empirical albedo measurements and literature data of arable soils mixed with biochar, a model for annual vegetation cover development based on satellite data and an assessment of the annual development of surface humidity, an average mean annual albedo reduction of 0.05 has been calculated for applying 30-32 Mg ha(-1) biochar on a test field near Bayreuth, Germany. The impact of biochar production and application on the carbon cycle and on the soil albedo was integrated into the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of a modeled pyrolysis based biochar system via the computation of global warming potential (GWP) characterization factors. The analysis resulted in a reduction of the overall climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems by 13-22% due to the albedo change as compared to an analysis which disregards the albedo effect. Comparing the use of the same quantity of biomass in a biochar system to a bioenergy district heating system which replaces natural gas combustion, bioenergy heating systems achieve 99-119% of the climate benefit of biochar systems according to the model calculation.
Use of the World Model for Policy Analysis: Education and Labor Policy in the Mideast

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-03-01

most thorough analysis of the economic benefits of education which we have seen to date. They have indicated that the primary approaches in attempting...revealed by more detailed analysis of the economic and demographic data. Note that in Figure 15 economic growth in Iraq-Libya with restrictions on the...V. U S E O F TtRE WORLD -MODEL F R POLICY ANALYSIS : E•DUCATION AND LABOR POLICY IN T H E MI D EA S T Q 2 L ! • Qu ~ ~~-" "c’, • "" ". ’.-?c..’* ner
A Structural Evaluation of a Large-Scale Quasi-Experimental Microfinance Initiative

PubMed Central

Kaboski, Joseph P.; Townsend, Robert M.

2010-01-01

This paper uses a structural model to understand, predict, and evaluate the impact of an exogenous microcredit intervention program, the Thai Million Baht Village Fund program. We model household decisions in the face of borrowing constraints, income uncertainty, and high-yield indivisible investment opportunities. After estimation of parameters using pre-program data, we evaluate the model’s ability to predict and interpret the impact of the village fund intervention. Simulations from the model mirror the data in yielding a greater increase in consumption than credit, which is interpreted as evidence of credit constraints. A cost-benefit analysis using the model indicates that some households value the program much more than its per household cost, but overall the program costs 20 percent more than the sum of these benefits. PMID:22162594
Air Emissions and Health Benefits from Using Sugarcane Waste as a Cellulosic Ethanol Feedstock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsao, C.; Campbell, E.; Chen, Y.; Carmichael, G.; Mena-Carrasco, M.; Spak, S.

2010-12-01

Brazil, as the largest ethanol exporter in the world, faces rapid expansion of ethanol production due to the increase of global biofuels demand. Current production of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol causes significant air emissions mainly from the open burning phase of agriculture wastes (i.e. sugarcane straws and leaves) resulting in potential health impacts. One possible measure to avoid undesired burning practices is to increase the utilization of unburned sugarcane residues as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol. To explore the benefits of this substitution, here we first apply a bottom-up approach combining agronomic data and life-cycle models to investigate spatially and temporally explicit emissions from sugarcane waste burning. We further quantify the health benefits from preventing burning practices using the CMAQ regional air quality model and the BenMAP health benefit analysis tool adapted for Brazilian applications. Furthermore, the health impacts will be converted into monetary values which provide policymakers useful information for the development of cellulosic ethanol.
Intelligent Engine Systems: Acoustics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wojno, John; Martens, Steve; Simpson, Benjamin

2008-01-01

An extensive study of new fan exhaust nozzle technologies was performed. Three new uniform chevron nozzles were designed, based on extensive CFD analysis. Two new azimuthally varying variants were defined. All five were tested, along with two existing nozzles, on a representative model-scale, medium BPR exhaust nozzle. Substantial acoustic benefits were obtained from the uniform chevron nozzle designs, the best benefit being provided by an existing design. However, one of the azimuthally varying nozzle designs exhibited even better performance than any of the uniform chevron nozzles. In addition to the fan chevron nozzles, a new technology was demonstrated, using devices that enhance mixing when applied to an exhaust nozzle. The acoustic benefits from these devices applied to medium BPR nozzles were similar, and in some cases superior to, those obtained from conventional uniform chevron nozzles. However, none of the low noise technologies provided equivalent acoustic benefits on a model-scale high BPR exhaust nozzle, similar to current large commercial applications. New technologies must be identified to improve the acoustics of state-of-the-art high BPR jet engines.
Cost-benefit analysis of drug treatment services: review of the literature*

PubMed

Cartwright, William S.

2000-03-01

BACKGROUND: How valuable is public investment in treatment for drug abuse and dependency in the real world of everyday practice? Does drug abuse treatment provide benefits and how are they valued? What are the costs of obtaining outcomes and benefits? Cost-benefit analysis attempts to answer these questions in a standard analytic framework. AIMS: This paper reviews cost-benefit analyses with scientific merit so that analysts will have a current picture of the state of the research. It will also give public decision-makers information with regards to the available evidence for policy purposes. METHOD: Bibliographic searches were performed. Studies were obtained through the assistance of the Parklawn Health Library system, a component of the US Public Health Service. Selected studies were from the scientific literature with the exception of eight studies published as governmental reports. RESULTS: Cost-benefit studies have fallen into the following categories: (i) planning models for delivery systems in states and cities; (ii) short-term follow-up studies of individuals, (iii) single individual programs and (iv) state system's monitoring of outcomes. In 18 cost-benefit studies, a persistent finding is that benefits exceed costs, even when not all benefits are accounted for in the analysis. Much variation is found in the implementation of cost-benefit methods, and this is detailed across discussions of effectiveness, benefits and costs. Studies have emphasized the cost savings to society from the reduction in external costs created by the behavioral consequences of addiction and drug use. DISCUSSION: Economic analysis of drug treatment requires sophisticated conceptualization and measurement. Cost-benefit analysis of drug treatment has been a significant analytical exercise since the early 1970s when the public drug treatment system was founded in the United States. CONCLUSION: Drug abuse treatment services may be considered as contributing positive economic returns to society. However, considerable work needs to be done to standardize methods used in the studies. A striking area of omission is the absence of studies for adolescents and only one for women in treatment. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH CARE PROVISION AND USE: Finding a positive net social benefit should assist policy-makers with decisions related to drug abuse treatment expenditures. Additional work on allocation of budget dollars across various drug treatment services will be needed. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICY FORMULATION: Government agencies and other stakeholders in national health care systems must realize that cost-benefit studies are an important tool for decision-making. Rational strategies can only be addressed by examining alternatives for the efficient allocation and equitable distribution of scarce resources. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Future research should focus on standardizing the methods used in the cost-benefit analysis. Extensions should examine methods related to the willingness-to-pay approach. Studies are needed for drug abuse treatment targeted to adolescents and women. More studies should be published in the scientific literature.
Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 7: Cost/benefit analysis for the ASVT on operational applications of satellite snow-cover observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castruccio, P.; Loats, H.; Lloyd, D.; Newman, P.

1981-01-01

The results of the OASSO ASVT's were used to estimate the benefits accruing from the added information available from satellite snowcover area measurement. Estimates of the improvement in runoff prediction due to addition of SATSCAM were made by the Colorado ASVT personnel. The improvement estimate is 6-10%. Data were applied to subregions covering the Western States snow area amended by information from the ASVT and other watershed experts to exclude areas which are not impacted by snowmelt runoff. Benefit models were developed for irrigation and hydroenergy uses. The benefit/cost ratio is 72:1. Since only two major benefit contributors were used and since the forecast improvement estimate does not take into account future satellite capabilities these estimates are considered to be conservative. The large magnitude of the benefit/cost ratio supports the utility and applicability of SATSCAM.
The soft constraints hypothesis: a rational analysis approach to resource allocation for interactive behavior.

PubMed

Gray, Wayne D; Sims, Chris R; Fu, Wai-Tat; Schoelles, Michael J

2006-07-01

Soft constraints hypothesis (SCH) is a rational analysis approach that holds that the mixture of perceptual-motor and cognitive resources allocated for interactive behavior is adjusted based on temporal cost-benefit tradeoffs. Alternative approaches maintain that cognitive resources are in some sense protected or conserved in that greater amounts of perceptual-motor effort will be expended to conserve lesser amounts of cognitive effort. One alternative, the minimum memory hypothesis (MMH), holds that people favor strategies that minimize the use of memory. SCH is compared with MMH across 3 experiments and with predictions of an Ideal Performer Model that uses ACT-R's memory system in a reinforcement learning approach that maximizes expected utility by minimizing time. Model and data support the SCH view of resource allocation; at the under 1000-ms level of analysis, mixtures of cognitive and perceptual-motor resources are adjusted based on their cost-benefit tradeoffs for interactive behavior. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).
A Study on the Interpretive Structural Model to Discuss the Analysis of Curriculum Planning and Benefit among Cosmetology and Hair Salon Professional Courses in College-Department of Cosmetic Applications and Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeh, Ju-Hsuan; Lo, Tsai-Yun; Wu, Hsiao-Ling

2017-01-01

This research aims to analyze the Curriculum planning and benefit between departments of beautification in college and the professional courses by using ISM. To understand the link between different professional courses of beautification in college and find out the connections, Department of Cosmetic Science will be taken as an example. The result…
[Parameter of evidence-based medicine in health care economics].

PubMed

Wasem, J; Siebert, U

1999-08-01

In the view of scarcity of resources, economic evaluations in health care, in which not only effects but also costs related to a medical intervention are examined and a incremental cost-outcome-ratio is build, are an important supplement to the program of evidence based medicine. Outcomes of a medical intervention can be measured by clinical effectiveness, quality-adjusted life years, and monetary evaluation of benefits. As far as costs are concerned, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and indirect costs have to be considered in an economic evaluation. Data can be used from primary studies or secondary analysis; metaanalysis for synthesizing of data may be adequate. For calculation of incremental cost-benefit-ratios, models of decision analysis (decision tree models, Markov-models) often are necessary. Methodological and ethical limits for application of the results of economic evaluation in resource allocation decision in health care have to be regarded: Economic evaluations and the calculation of cost-outcome-rations should only support decision making but cannot replace it.

Global alliances effect in coalition forming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinogradova, Galina; Galam, Serge

2014-11-01

Coalition forming is investigated among countries, which are coupled with short range interactions, under the influence of externally-set opposing global alliances. The model extends a recent Natural Model of coalition forming inspired from Statistical Physics, where instabilities are a consequence of decentralized maximization of the individual benefits of actors. In contrast to physics where spins can only evaluate the immediate cost/benefit of a flip of orientation, countries have a long horizon of rationality, which associates with the ability to envision a way up to a better configuration even at the cost of passing through intermediate loosing states. The stabilizing effect is produced through polarization by the global alliances of either a particular unique global interest factor or multiple simultaneous ones. This model provides a versatile theoretical tool for the analysis of real cases and design of novel strategies. Such analysis is provided for several real cases including the Eurozone. The results shed a new light on the understanding of the complex phenomena of planned stabilization in the coalition forming.
Organizational Infrastructure in the Collegiate Athletic Training Setting, Part II: Benefits of and Barriers in the Athletics Model

PubMed Central

Goodman, Ashley; Mazerolle, Stephanie M.; Eason, Christianne M.

2017-01-01

Context: The athletics model, in which athletic training clinical programs are part of the athletics department, is the predominant model in the collegiate athletic training setting. Little is known about athletic trainers' (ATs') perceptions of this model, particularly as it relates to organizational hierarchy. Objective: To explore the perceived benefits of and barriers in the athletics model. Design: Qualitative study. Setting: National Collegiate Athletic Association Divisions I and III. Patients or Other Participants: Eight full-time ATs (5 men, 3 women; age = 41 ± 13 years, time employed at the current institution = 14 ± 14 years, experience as a certified AT = 18 ± 13 years) working in the collegiate setting using the athletics model. Data Collection and Analysis: We conducted semistructured interviews via telephone or in person and used a general inductive approach to analyze the qualitative data. Multiple-analyst triangulation and peer review established trustworthiness. Results: Two benefits and 3 barriers emerged from the data. Role identity emerged as a benefit that occurred with role clarity, validation, and acceptance of the collegiate AT personality. Role congruence emerged as a benefit of the athletics model that occurred with 2 lower-order themes: relationship building and physician alignment and support. Role strain, staffing concerns, and work-life conflict emerged as barriers in the athletics model. Role strain occurred with 2 primary lower-order themes: role incongruity and role conflict. Conclusions: The athletics model is the most common infrastructure for employing ATs in collegiate athletics. Participants expressed positive experiences via character identity, support, trust relationships, and longevity. However, common barriers remain. To reduce role strain, misaligning values, and work-life conflict, ATs working in the athletics model are encouraged to evaluate their relationships with coaches and their supervisor and consider team physician alignment. Moreover, measures to increase quality athletic training staff from a care rather than a coverage standpoint should be considered. PMID:27977301
2010 Staff Organization for Optimum C2: A Private Sector Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-02-13

control over business operations. Warfighting CINCs can benefit from the lessons learned in the private sector by adapting those lessons to future military... private sector analysis. Through the use of a networked command and control system and a "matrix" staff structure, the model consolidates the JFC staff
Teaching ABC & Cost Behaviors to Non-Numbers People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Virginia Anne; Rudnick, Martin

2007-01-01

Simply put, a cost analysis studies how you spend your money. Activity based costing models associate costs with services and cost benefit analysis weighs whether or not the costs expended were worth the money given the efforts involved and the results achieved. This study seeks to understand the financial choices and information seeking behaviors…
A Market-oriented Approach To Maximizing Product Benefits: Cases in U.S. Forest Products Industries

Treesearch

Vijay S. Reddy; Robert J. Bush; Ronen Roudik

1996-01-01

Conjoint analysis, a decompositional customer preference modelling technique, has seen little application to forest products. However, the technique provides useful information for marketing decisions by quantifying consumer preference functions for multiattribute product alternatives. The results of a conjoint analysis include the contribution of each attribute and...
A business case evaluation of workplace engineering noise control: a net-cost model.

PubMed

Lahiri, Supriya; Low, Colleen; Barry, Michael

2011-03-01

This article provides a convenient tool for companies to determine the costs and benefits of alternative interventions to prevent noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). Contextualized for Singapore and in collaboration with Singapore's Ministry of Manpower, the Net-Cost model evaluates costs of intervention for equipment and labor, avoided costs of productivity losses and medical care, and productivity gains from the employer's economic perspective. To pilot this approach, four case studies are presented, with varying degrees of economic benefits to the employer, including one in which multifactor productivity is the main driver. Although compliance agencies may not require economic analysis of NIHL, given scarce resources in a market-driven economy, this tool enables stakeholders to understand and compare the costs and benefits of NIHL interventions comprehensively and helps in determining risk management strategies.
Expectations and illness perceptions as predictors of benefit recipiency among workers with common mental disorders: secondary analysis from a randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

Løvvik, Camilla; Shaw, William; Øverland, Simon; Reme, Silje Endresen

2014-01-01

Objective Common mental disorders (CMDs) are among the leading causes of sick leave, and more knowledge on factors related to work participation and return-to-work (RTW) in CMDs is needed. The aim of this study was to investigate RTW-expectations and illness perceptions as predictors of benefit recipiency in CMDs. Design Study participants were enrolled in a randomised controlled trial and reported CMDs as a main obstacle for work participation. Three prespecified subgroups were included: people at risk of going on sick leave, people on sick leave (>3 weeks) or people on long-term benefits. Baseline questionnaire data and registry data at baseline and 6 months were used to investigate predictors of benefit recipiency at 6-month follow-up. Benefit recipiency included sickness benefits, disability pension, work assessment allowance and unemployment benefits. Results In this study, uncertain and negative RTW-expectations were strong predictors of benefit recipiency at 6 months follow-up. Illness perceptions predicted benefit recipiency in the unadjusted model, but not in the fully adjusted model. In the subgroup on sick leave, uncertain and negative RTW-expectations predicted benefit recipiency, while in the subgroup of people at risk of going on sick leave, negative RTW-expectations predicted benefit recipiency. In the subgroup on long-term benefits, only female gender predicted benefit recipiency. Conclusions For people with CMDs, uncertain and negative RTW-expectations predict later benefit recipiency, and expectations seem particularly important for those at risk of or on sick leave. For those at risk of sick leave, benefit recipiency at follow-up denoted a transition onto sick leave or long-term benefit, while those on sick leave had remained so or were receiving long-term benefits. Addressing RTW-expectations in occupational healthcare services or vocational rehabilitation might be beneficial in early stages or even prior to a sick leave episode. Trial registration http://www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01146730. PMID:24589824
An Evaluation of Enrollment Management Models of the 28 Florida Community Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LoBasso, Thomas

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which enrollment management models have been successfully implemented within the 28 Florida community colleges. The study also sought to determine when enrollment management structures began and whether expected benefits were achieved. Analysis of the data collected in this study indicated…
E-Books and New Library Service Models: An Analysis of the Impact of E-Book Technology on Academic Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jantz, Ronald

2001-01-01

Analyzes the implications of electronic book technology (e-books) on academic libraries. Discusses new business models for publishers, including self-publishing, Internet publishing, and partnerships with libraries as publishers; impact on library services, including cataloging, circulation, and digital preservation; user benefits; standards;…
Realizing Shared Services--A Punctuated Process Analysis of a Public IT Department

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsen, Timothy John

2012-01-01

IT services are increasingly being offered via a shared service model. This model promises the benefits of centralization and consolidation, as well as an increased customer satisfaction. Adopting shared services is not easy as it necessitates a major organizational change, with few documented exemplars to guide managers. This research explores a…
An Analysis of the Predicted Benefits of Multi-Year Procurement

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

concerned with these issues. The researchers were especially concerned with model sensitivity to parameters used in the financial sector. Model validation is...TECHNOLOGY (ATC) WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OH 45433 qEK•Y TO RrNov O i 5 April 1982 suata Survey of Educacion With Industry Students To LS I fully
Using the Health Belief Model to Predict Bystander Behavior among College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blavos, Alexis A.; Glassman, Tavis; Sheu, Jiunn-Jye; Diehr, Aaron; Deakins, Bethany

2014-01-01

This investigation used the Health Belief Model (HBM) to examine perceived barriers and benefits college students hold concerning medical amnesty. Researchers employed a cross-sectional research design with 369 students completing the survey (97% response rate). A path analysis revealed that college students are more likely to seek help during an…
Beyond Teachers' Sight Lines: Using Video Modeling to Examine Peer Discourse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kotsopoulos, Donna

2008-01-01

This article introduces readers to various examples of discourse analysis in mathematics education. Highlighted is interactional sociolinguistics, used in a present study to investigate peer discourse in a middle-school setting. Key findings from this study include the benefits of video modeling as a mechanism for fostering inclusive peer group…
An Analysis on a Negotiation Model Based on Multiagent Systems with Symbiotic Learning and Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, Md. Tofazzal

This study explores an evolutionary analysis on a negotiation model based on Masbiole (Multiagent Systems with Symbiotic Learning and Evolution) which has been proposed as a new methodology of Multiagent Systems (MAS) based on symbiosis in the ecosystem. In Masbiole, agents evolve in consideration of not only their own benefits and losses, but also the benefits and losses of opponent agents. To aid effective application of Masbiole, we develop a competitive negotiation model where rigorous and advanced intelligent decision-making mechanisms are required for agents to achieve solutions. A Negotiation Protocol is devised aiming at developing a set of rules for agents' behavior during evolution. Simulations use a newly developed evolutionary computing technique, called Genetic Network Programming (GNP) which has the directed graph-type gene structure that can develop and design the required intelligent mechanisms for agents. In a typical scenario, competitive negotiation solutions are reached by concessions that are usually predetermined in the conventional MAS. In this model, however, not only concession is determined automatically by symbiotic evolution (making the system intelligent, automated, and efficient) but the solution also achieves Pareto optimal automatically.
State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: economics and marketing-finance.

PubMed

Kalogeras, N; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Pennings, J M E; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

2012-01-01

All market participants (e.g., investors, producers, consumers) accept a certain level of risk as necessary to achieve certain benefits. There are many types of risk including price, production, financial, institutional, and individual human risks. All these risks should be effectively managed in order to derive the utmost of benefits and avoid disruption and/or catastrophic economic consequences for the food industry. The identification, analysis, determination, and understanding of the benefit-risk trade-offs of market participants in the food markets may help policy makers, financial analysts and marketers to make well-informed and effective corporate investment strategies in order to deal with highly uncertain and risky situations. In this paper, we discuss the role that benefits and risks play in the formation of the decision-making process of market-participants, who are engaged in the upstream and downstream stages of the food supply chain. In addition, we review the most common approaches (expected utility model and psychometrics) for measuring benefit-risk trade-offs in the economics and marketing-finance literature, and different factors that may affect the economic behaviour in the light of benefit-risk analyses. Building on the findings of our review, we introduce a conceptual framework to study the benefit-risk behaviour of market participants. Specifically, we suggest the decoupling of benefits and risks into the separate components of utilitarian benefits, hedonic benefits, and risk attitude and risk perception, respectively. Predicting and explaining how market participants in the food industry form their overall attitude in light of benefit-risk trade-offs may be critical for policy-makers and managers who need to understand the drivers of the economic behaviour of market participants with respect to production, marketing and consumption of food products. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The total assessment profile, volume 2. [including societal impact, cost effectiveness, and economic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leininger, G.; Jutila, S.; King, J.; Muraco, W.; Hansell, J.; Lindeen, J.; Franckowiak, E.; Flaschner, A.

1975-01-01

Appendices are presented which include discussions of interest formulas, factors in regionalization, parametric modeling of discounted benefit-sacrifice streams, engineering economic calculations, and product innovation. For Volume 1, see .
Health economic studies: an introduction to cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses.

PubMed

Angevine, Peter D; Berven, Sigurd

2014-10-15

Narrative overview. To provide clinicians with a basic understanding of economic studies, including cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses. As decisions regarding public health policy, insurance reimbursement, and patient care incorporate factors other than traditional outcomes such as satisfaction or symptom resolution, health economic studies are increasingly prominent in the literature. This trend will likely continue, and it is therefore important for clinicians to have a fundamental understanding of the common types of economic studies and be able to read them critically. In this brief article, the basic concepts of economic studies and the differences between cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies are discussed. An overview of the field of health economic analysis is presented. Cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies all integrate cost and outcome data into a decision analysis model. These different types of studies are distinguished mainly by the way in which outcomes are valued. Obtaining accurate cost data is often difficult and can limit the generalizability of a study. With a basic understanding of health economic analysis, clinicians can be informed consumers of these important studies.
A Framework for Analysis of Research Risks and Benefits to Participants in Standard of Care Pragmatic Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Chen, Stephanie C; Kim, Scott Y H

2016-01-01

Background/Aims Standard of care pragmatic clinical trials (SCPCTs) that compare treatments already in use could improve care and reduce cost but there is considerable debate about the research risks of SCPCTs and how to apply informed consent regulations to such trials. We sought to develop a framework integrating the insights from opposing sides of the debate. Methods We developed a formal risk-benefit analysis framework for SCPCTs and then applied it to key provisions of the U.S. federal regulations. Results Our formal framework for SCPCT risk-benefit analysis takes into account three key considerations: the ex ante estimates of risks and benefits of the treatments to be compared in a SCPCT, the allocation ratios of treatments inside and outside a SCPCT, and the significance of some participants receiving a different treatment inside a SCPCT than outside the trial. The framework provides practical guidance on how the research ethics regulations on informed consent should be applied to SCPCTs. Conclusions Our proposed formal model makes explicit the relationship between the concepts used by opposing sides of the debate about the research risks of SCPCTs and can be used to clarify the implications for informed consent. PMID:27365010
The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, M.; Keller, K.; Tuana, N.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for the deployment of a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically suggest that substituting aerosol geoengineering for abatement of carbon dioxide emissions results in large net monetary benefits. However, these studies neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for future geoengineering failures and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on the question of intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of endogenous learning about the climate system. We show that the risks associated with a future geoengineering failure and negative impacts of aerosol forcings can cause geoenginering strategies to fail an economic cost-benefit test. One key to this finding is that a geoengineering failure would lead to dramatic and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to this failure can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement might fail not only an economic cost-benefit test but also an ethical test of distributional justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations. Intergenerational justice demands distributional justice, namely that present generations may not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations. We use the economic model to quantify this risk transfer to better inform the judgment of whether substituting aerosol geoengineering for carbon dioxide emission abatement fails this ethical test.
A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen

As states have gained experience with renewable portfolio standards (RPS) policies, many have made significant revisions to existing programs. In 2015 and 2016, seven states raised and extended their final RPS targets, while another state enacted a new RPS policy (Barbose 2016b). Interest in expanding and strengthening state RPS programs may continue, while efforts like recent proposals in many states to repeal or freeze existing RPS policies may also persist. In either context, questions about the potential costs, benefits, and other impacts of RPS programs are usually central to the decision-making process. This report follows on previous analyses that havemore » focused on the historical costs, benefits, and other impacts of existing state RPS programs (Heeter et al. 2014; Wiser et al. 2016a). This report examines RPS outcomes prospectively, considering both current RPS policies as well as a potential expansion of those policies. The goal of this work is to provide a consistent and independent analytical methodology for that examination. This analysis relies on National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to estimate changes to the U.S. electric power sector across a number of scenarios and sensitivity cases, focusing on the 2015–2050 timeframe. Based on those modeled results, we evaluate the costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy contributing to RPS compliance using the suite of methods employed in a number of recent studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): a report examining retrospective benefits and impacts of RPS programs (Wiser et al. 2016a), the Wind Vision report (DOE 2015), the On the Path to SunShot report focusing on environmental benefits (Wiser et al. 2016b), and the Hydropower Vision report (DOE 2016).« less

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap: an example comparing treatments for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori.

PubMed

Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M

1999-01-01

Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.
Integrated Data Analysis for Fusion: A Bayesian Tutorial for Fusion Diagnosticians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinklage, Andreas; Dreier, Heiko; Fischer, Rainer; Gori, Silvio; Preuss, Roland; Toussaint, Udo von

2008-03-01

Integrated Data Analysis (IDA) offers a unified way of combining information relevant to fusion experiments. Thereby, IDA meets with typical issues arising in fusion data analysis. In IDA, all information is consistently formulated as probability density functions quantifying uncertainties in the analysis within the Bayesian probability theory. For a single diagnostic, IDA allows the identification of faulty measurements and improvements in the setup. For a set of diagnostics, IDA gives joint error distributions allowing the comparison and integration of different diagnostics results. Validation of physics models can be performed by model comparison techniques. Typical data analysis applications benefit from IDA capabilities of nonlinear error propagation, the inclusion of systematic effects and the comparison of different physics models. Applications range from outlier detection, background discrimination, model assessment and design of diagnostics. In order to cope with next step fusion device requirements, appropriate techniques are explored for fast analysis applications.
Evaluation of solar electric propulsion technologies for discovery class missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oh, David Y.

2005-01-01

A detailed study examines the potential benefits that advanced electric propulsion (EP) technologies offer to the cost-capped missions in NASA's Discovery program. The study looks at potential cost and performance benefits provided by three EP technologies that are currently in development: NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT), an Enhanced NSTAR system, and a Low Power Hall effect thruster. These systems are analyzed on three straw man Discovery class missions and their performance is compared to a state of the art system using the NSTAR ion thruster. An electric propulsion subsystem cost model is used to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each option. The results show that each proposed technology offers a different degree of performance and/or cost benefit for Discovery class missions.
40 CFR 1502.23 - Cost-benefit analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost-benefit analysis. 1502.23 Section... § 1502.23 Cost-benefit analysis. If a cost-benefit analysis relevant to the choice among environmentally... compliance with section 102(2)(B) of the Act the statement shall, when a cost-benefit analysis is prepared...
40 CFR 1502.23 - Cost-benefit analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 33 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Cost-benefit analysis. 1502.23 Section... § 1502.23 Cost-benefit analysis. If a cost-benefit analysis relevant to the choice among environmentally... compliance with section 102(2)(B) of the Act the statement shall, when a cost-benefit analysis is prepared...
Determinants of physical activity in middle-aged woman in Isfahan using the health belief model.

PubMed

Hosseini, Habibollah; Moradi, Razieh; Kazemi, Ashraf; Shahshahani, Maryam Sadat

2017-01-01

Nowadays with respect to the automation of the lifestyle, immobility statistics in middle-aged women has increased and they are at risk for complications of immobility. One of the models used to identify factors associated with physical activity is Health Belief Model utilized in different age and different cultural backgrounds and different results have been obtained from those studies. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting on physical activity in middle-aged women using Health Belief Model. This descriptive-correlation study was conducted on 224 middle-aged women referring to health centers in Isfahan. Health Belief Model structures including perceived susceptibility and severity, perceived barriers and benefits, and self-efficacy were measured by questionnaire and physical activity was assessed using the international physical activity questionnaire. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation coefficient test and regression analysis. There wasn't significant correlation between perceived susceptibility ( P = 0.263, r = 0.075) and perceived severity with physical activity duration ( P = 0.127, r = 0.058) but there was positive and weak correlation between physical activity duration with perceived benefits ( P = 0.001 and r = 0.26) and perceived self-efficacy ( P = 0.001, r = 0.54) and had weak and inverse correlation with perceived barriers ( P = 0.001, r = -0.25). Regression analysis also showed that from among all the Health Belief Model structures just self-efficacy structure has influenced on behavior independently and other structures are affected by it. The obtained results implied on a correlation between benefits, barriers and perceived self-efficacy with and moderate physical activity. Therefore it is necessary to develop appropriate educational programs with emphasis on structures of Health Belief Model that has the maximum impact on physical activity in middle-aged women.
Evaluating the predictive accuracy and the clinical benefit of a nomogram aimed to predict survival in node-positive prostate cancer patients: External validation on a multi-institutional database.

PubMed

Bianchi, Lorenzo; Schiavina, Riccardo; Borghesi, Marco; Bianchi, Federico Mineo; Briganti, Alberto; Carini, Marco; Terrone, Carlo; Mottrie, Alex; Gacci, Mauro; Gontero, Paolo; Imbimbo, Ciro; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Milanese, Giulio; Mirone, Vincenzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Morgia, Giuseppe; Novara, Giacomo; Porreca, Angelo; Volpe, Alessandro; Brunocilla, Eugenio

2018-04-06

To assess the predictive accuracy and the clinical value of a recent nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after surgery in pN1 prostate cancer patients through an external validation. We evaluated 518 prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with evidence of nodal metastases at final pathology, at 10 tertiary centers. External validation was carried out using regression coefficients of the previously published nomogram. The performance characteristics of the model were assessed by quantifying predictive accuracy, according to the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve and model calibration. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for each nomogram-derived probability cut-off. Finally, we implemented decision curve analysis, in order to quantify the nomogram's clinical value in routine practice. External validation showed inferior predictive accuracy as referred to in the internal validation (65.8% vs 83.3%, respectively). The discrimination (area under the curve) of the multivariable model was 66.7% (95% CI 60.1-73.0%) by testing with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The calibration plot showed an overestimation throughout the range of predicted cancer-specific mortality-free survival rates probabilities. However, in decision curve analysis, the nomogram's use showed a net benefit when compared with the scenarios of treating all patients or none. In an external setting, the nomogram showed inferior predictive accuracy and suboptimal calibration characteristics as compared to that reported in the original population. However, decision curve analysis showed a clinical net benefit, suggesting a clinical implication to correctly manage pN1 prostate cancer patients after surgery. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.
A new, but old business model for family physicians: cash.

PubMed

Weber, J Michael

2013-01-01

The following study is an exploratory investigation into the opportunity identification, opportunity analysis, and strategic implications of implementing a cash-only family physician practice. The current market dynamics (i.e., increasing insurance premiums, decreasing benefits, more regulations and paperwork, and cuts in federal and state programs) suggest that there is sufficient motivation for these practitioners to change their current business model. In-depth interviews were conducted with office managers and physicians of family physician practices. The results highlighted a variety of issues, including barriers to change, strategy issues, and opportunities/benefits. The implications include theory applications, strategic marketing applications, and managerial decision-making.
Physician Utilization of a Hospital Information System: A Computer Simulation Model

PubMed Central

Anderson, James G.; Jay, Stephen J.; Clevenger, Stephen J.; Kassing, David R.; Perry, Jane; Anderson, Marilyn M.

1988-01-01

The purpose of this research was to develop a computer simulation model that represents the process through which physicians enter orders into a hospital information system (HIS). Computer simulation experiments were performed to estimate the effects of two methods of order entry on outcome variables. The results of the computer simulation experiments were used to perform a cost-benefit analysis to compare the two different means of entering medical orders into the HIS. The results indicate that the use of personal order sets to enter orders into the HIS will result in a significant reduction in manpower, salaries and fringe benefits, and errors in order entry.
A Note on the Validity and Reliability of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Benefit-Risk Assessment of Medicines.

PubMed

Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

2015-11-01

The comparative evaluation of benefits and risks is one of the most important tasks during the development, market authorization and post-approval pharmacovigilance of medicinal products. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been recommended to support decision making in the benefit-risk assessment (BRA) of medicines. This paper identifies challenges associated with bias or variability that practitioners may encounter in this field and presents solutions to overcome them. The inclusion of overlapping or preference-complementary criteria, which are frequent violations to the assumptions of this model, should be avoided. For each criterion, a value function translates the original outcomes into preference-related scores. Applying non-linear value functions to criteria defined as the risk of suffering a certain event during the study introduces specific risk behaviours in this prescriptive, rather than descriptive, model and is therefore a questionable practice. MCDA uses weights to compare the importance of the model criteria with each other; during their elicitation a frequent situation where (generally favourable) mild effects are directly traded off against low probabilities of suffering (generally unfavourable) severe effects during the study is known to lead to biased and variable weights and ought to be prevented. The way the outcomes are framed during the elicitation process, positively versus negatively for instance, may also lead to differences in the preference weights, warranting an appropriate justification during each implementation. Finally, extending the weighted-sum MCDA model into a fully inferential tool through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is desirable. However, this task is troublesome and should not ignore that clinical trial endpoints generally are positively correlated.
Strategies for Efficient Computation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information

PubMed Central

Madan, Jason; Ades, Anthony E.; Price, Malcolm; Maitland, Kathryn; Jemutai, Julie; Revill, Paul; Welton, Nicky J.

2014-01-01

Expected value of information methods evaluate the potential health benefits that can be obtained from conducting new research to reduce uncertainty in the parameters of a cost-effectiveness analysis model, hence reducing decision uncertainty. Expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) provides an upper limit to the health gains that can be obtained from conducting a new study on a subset of parameters in the cost-effectiveness analysis and can therefore be used as a sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that most contribute to decision uncertainty and to help guide decisions around which types of study are of most value to prioritize for funding. A common general approach is to use nested Monte Carlo simulation to obtain an estimate of EVPPI. This approach is computationally intensive, can lead to significant sampling bias if an inadequate number of inner samples are obtained, and incorrect results can be obtained if correlations between parameters are not dealt with appropriately. In this article, we set out a range of methods for estimating EVPPI that avoid the need for nested simulation: reparameterization of the net benefit function, Taylor series approximations, and restricted cubic spline estimation of conditional expectations. For each method, we set out the generalized functional form that net benefit must take for the method to be valid. By specifying this functional form, our methods are able to focus on components of the model in which approximation is required, avoiding the complexities involved in developing statistical approximations for the model as a whole. Our methods also allow for any correlations that might exist between model parameters. We illustrate the methods using an example of fluid resuscitation in African children with severe malaria. PMID:24449434
A strategy for measuring patient preferences to incorporate in benefit-risk assessment of new ophthalmic devices and procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massof, R. W.; Bradley, C.

2016-11-01

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently released guidance documents explaining that measurement of patient preferences should be considered during the pre-market approval process to specify patients’ tolerances for risk and perspectives on benefit when assessing the benefit-risk profile of new medical devices. For ophthalmological patients, the typical primary clinical outcome is a visual impairment measure. Especially for surgically- implanted devices, the benefit a specified improvement in vision measures must be translated to a patient-specific benefit of the improvement in ability to function in everyday life. We developed, and validated with simulations, a strategy for measuring an individual patient's ability to function and the overall benefit to that patient of specified improvements in functional ability. Our strategy employs Rasch analysis to measure changes in functional ability; multidimensional scaling to measure patient-specific benefits of changes in functional ability; and structural equation modeling to cross-walk patient preferences for functional ability changes to changes in visual impairment measures.
Smoke Alarm Giveaway and Installation Programs

PubMed Central

Liu, Ying; Mack, Karin A.; Diekman, Shane T.

2015-01-01

Background The burden of residential fire injury and death is substantial. Targeted smoke alarm giveaway and installation programs are popular interventions used to reduce residential fire mortality and morbidity. Purpose To evaluate the cost effectiveness and cost benefit of implementing a giveaway or installation program in a small hypothetic community with a high risk of fire death and injury through a decision-analysis model. Methods Model inputs included program costs; program effectiveness (life-years and quality-adjusted life-years saved); and monetized program benefits (medical cost, productivity, property loss and quality-of-life losses averted) and were identified through structured reviews of existing literature (done in 2011) and supplemented by expert opinion. Future costs and effectiveness were discounted at a rate of 3% per year. All costs were expressed in 2011 U.S. dollars. Results Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) resulted in anaverage cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) of $51,404 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved and $45,630 per QALY for the giveaway and installation programs, respectively. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) showed that both programs were associated with a positive net benefit with a benefit–cost ratio of 2.1 and 2.3, respectively. Smoke alarm functional rate, baseline prevalence of functional alarms, and baseline home fire death rate were among the most influential factors for the CEA and CBA results. Conclusions Both giveaway and installation programs have an average cost-effectiveness ratio similar to or lower than the median cost-effectiveness ratio reported for other interventionsto reduce fatal injuries in homes. Although more effort is required, installation programs result in lower cost per outcome achieved compared with giveaways. PMID:22992356
The public health benefits of insulation retrofits in existing housing in the United States

PubMed Central

Levy, Jonathan I; Nishioka, Yurika; Spengler, John D

2003-01-01

Background Methodological limitations make it difficult to quantify the public health benefits of energy efficiency programs. To address this issue, we developed a risk-based model to estimate the health benefits associated with marginal energy usage reductions and applied the model to a hypothetical case study of insulation retrofits in single-family homes in the United States. Methods We modeled energy savings with a regression model that extrapolated findings from an energy simulation program. Reductions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions and particle precursors (SO2 and NOx) were quantified using fuel-specific emission factors and marginal electricity analyses. Estimates of population exposure per unit emissions, varying by location and source type, were extrapolated from past dispersion model runs. Concentration-response functions for morbidity and mortality from PM2.5 were derived from the epidemiological literature, and economic values were assigned to health outcomes based on willingness to pay studies. Results In total, the insulation retrofits would save 800 TBTU (8 × 1014 British Thermal Units) per year across 46 million homes, resulting in 3,100 fewer tons of PM2.5, 100,000 fewer tons of NOx, and 190,000 fewer tons of SO2 per year. These emission reductions are associated with outcomes including 240 fewer deaths, 6,500 fewer asthma attacks, and 110,000 fewer restricted activity days per year. At a state level, the health benefits per unit energy savings vary by an order of magnitude, illustrating that multiple factors (including population patterns and energy sources) influence health benefit estimates. The health benefits correspond to $1.3 billion per year in externalities averted, compared with $5.9 billion per year in economic savings. Conclusion In spite of significant uncertainties related to the interpretation of PM2.5 health effects and other dimensions of the model, our analysis demonstrates that a risk-based methodology is viable for national-level energy efficiency programs. PMID:12740041
Task-sharing or public finance for the expansion of surgical access in rural Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Shrime, Mark G; Verguet, Stéphane; Johansson, Kjell Arne; Desalegn, Dawit; Jamison, Dean T; Kruk, Margaret E

2016-07-01

Despite a high burden of surgical disease, access to surgical services in low- and middle-income countries is often limited. In line with the World Health Organization's current focus on universal health coverage and equitable access to care, we examined how policies to expand access to surgery in rural Ethiopia would impact health, impoverishment and equity. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis was performed. Deterministic and stochastic models of surgery in rural Ethiopia were constructed, utilizing pooled estimates of costs and probabilities from national surveys and published literature. Model calibration and validation were performed against published estimates, with sensitivity analyses on model assumptions to check for robustness. Outcomes of interest were the number of deaths averted, the number of cases of poverty averted and the number of cases of catastrophic expenditure averted for each policy, divided across wealth quintiles. Health benefits, financial risk protection and equity appear to be in tension in the expansion of access to surgical care in rural Ethiopia. Health benefits from each of the examined policies accrued primarily to the poor. However, without travel vouchers, many policies also induced impoverishment in the poor while providing financial risk protection to the rich, calling into question the equitable distribution of benefits by these policies. Adding travel vouchers removed the impoverishing effects of a policy but decreased the health benefit that could be bought per dollar spent. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Multi-criteria analysis for PM10 planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisoni, Enrico; Carnevale, Claudio; Volta, Marialuisa

To implement sound air quality policies, Regulatory Agencies require tools to evaluate outcomes and costs associated to different emission reduction strategies. These tools are even more useful when considering atmospheric PM10 concentrations due to the complex nonlinear processes that affect production and accumulation of the secondary fraction of this pollutant. The approaches presented in the literature (Integrated Assessment Modeling) are mainly cost-benefit and cost-effective analysis. In this work, the formulation of a multi-objective problem to control particulate matter is proposed. The methodology defines: (a) the control objectives (the air quality indicator and the emission reduction cost functions); (b) the decision variables (precursor emission reductions); (c) the problem constraints (maximum feasible technology reductions). The cause-effect relations between air quality indicators and decision variables are identified tuning nonlinear source-receptor models. The multi-objective problem solution provides to the decision maker a set of not-dominated scenarios representing the efficient trade-off between the air quality benefit and the internal costs (emission reduction technology costs). The methodology has been implemented for Northern Italy, often affected by high long-term exposure to PM10. The source-receptor models used in the multi-objective analysis are identified processing long-term simulations of GAMES multiphase modeling system, performed in the framework of CAFE-Citydelta project.
Errors in terrain-based model preditions caused by altered forest inventory plot locations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

Treesearch

Huei-Jin Wang; Stephen Prisley; Philip Radtke; John Coulston

2012-01-01

Forest modeling applications that cover large geographic area can benefit from the use of widely-held knowledge about relationships between forest attributes and topographic variables. A noteworthy example involved the coupling of field survey data from the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) program of USDA Forest Service with digital elevation model (DEM) data in...
CoMET: Cost and Mass Evaluation Tool for Spacecraft and Mission Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bieber, Ben S.

2005-01-01

New technology in space exploration is often developed without a complete knowledge of its impact. While the immediate benefits of a new technology are obvious, it is harder to understand its indirect consequences, which ripple through the entire system. COMET is a technology evaluation tool designed to illuminate how specific technology choices affect a mission at each system level. COMET uses simplified models for mass, power, and cost to analyze performance parameters of technologies of interest. The sensitivity analysis that CoMET provides shows whether developing a certain technology will greatly benefit the project or not. CoMET is an ongoing project approaching a web-based implementation phase. This year, development focused on the models for planetary daughter craft, such as atmospheric probes, blimps and balloons, and landers. These models are developed through research into historical data, well established rules of thumb, and engineering judgment of experts at JPL. The model is validated by corroboration with JpL advanced mission studies. Other enhancements to COMET include adding launch vehicle analysis and integrating an updated cost model. When completed, COMET will allow technological development to be focused on areas that will most drastically improve spacecraft performance.
Modeling the costs and benefits of temporary recommendations for poliovirus exporting countries to vaccinate international travelers.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Thompson, Kimberly M

2017-07-05

Recognizing that infectious agents readily cross international borders, the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee issues Temporary Recommendations (TRs) that include vaccination of travelers from countries affected by public health emergencies, including serotype 1 wild polioviruses (WPV1s). This analysis estimates the costs and benefits of TRs implemented by countries with reported WPV1 during 2014-2016 while accounting for numerous uncertainties. We estimate the TR costs based on programmatic data and prior economic analyses and TR benefits by simulating potential WPV1 outbreaks in the absence of the TRs using the rate and extent of WPV1 importation outbreaks per reported WPV1 case during 2004-2013 and the number of reported WPV1 cases that occurred in countries with active TRs. The benefits of TRs outweigh the costs in 77% of model iterations, resulting in expected incremental net economic benefits of $210 million. Inclusion of indirect costs increases the costs by 13%, the expected savings from prevented outbreaks by 4%, and the expected incremental net benefits by 3%. Despite the considerable costs of implementing TRs, this study provides health and economic justification for these investments in the context of managing a disease in advanced stages of its global eradication. Copyright © 2017 The Auhors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Longitudinal trajectories of benefit finding in adolescents with Type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Rassart, Jessica; Luyckx, Koen; Berg, Cynthia A; Oris, Leen; Wiebe, Deborah J

2017-10-01

Benefit finding, which refers to perceiving positive life changes resulting from adversity, has been associated with better psychosocial well-being in different chronic illnesses. However, little research to date has examined how benefit finding develops in the context of Type 1 diabetes (T1D). The present study aimed to identify trajectories of benefit finding across adolescence and to investigate prospective associations with depressive symptoms, self-care, and metabolic control. Adolescents with T1D aged 10 to 14 (Mage = 12.49 years, 54% girls) participated in a 4-wave longitudinal study spanning 1.5 years (N = 252 at Time 1). Adolescents filled out questionnaires on benefit finding, self-care, depressive symptoms, and illness perceptions. HbA1c values were obtained through point of care assays. We used latent growth curve modeling (LGCM) and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to examine the development of benefit finding. Cross-lagged path analysis and multi-group LGCM were used to examine prospective associations among the study variables. Adolescents reported moderate levels of benefit finding which decreased over time. Three benefit finding trajectory classes were identified: low and decreasing, moderate and decreasing, and high and stable. These trajectory classes differed in terms of self-care, perceived personal and treatment control, and perceptions of illness cyclicality. Higher levels of benefit finding predicted relative increases in self-care 6 months later. Benefit finding was not prospectively related to depressive symptoms and metabolic control. Benefit finding may serve as a protective factor for adolescents with Type 1 diabetes and may motivate these adolescents to more closely follow their treatment regimen. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Balancing the benefits and costs of antibiotic drugs: the TREAT model.

PubMed

Leibovici, L; Paul, M; Andreassen, S

2010-12-01

TREAT is a computerized decision support system aimed at improving empirical antibiotic treatment of inpatients with suspected bacterial infections. It contains a model that balances, for each antibiotic choice (including 'no antibiotics'), expected benefit and expected costs. The main benefit afforded by appropriate, empirical, early antibiotic treatment in moderate to severe infections is a better chance of survival. Each antibiotic drug was consigned three cost components: cost of the drug and administration; cost of side effects; and costs of future resistance. 'No treatment' incurs no costs. The model worked well for decision support. Its analysis showed, yet again, that for moderate to severe infections, a model that does not include costs of resistance to future patients will always return maximum antibiotic treatment. Two major moral decisions are hidden in the model: how to take into account the limited life-expectancy and limited quality of life of old or very sick patients; and how to assign a value for a life-year of a future, unnamed patient vs. the present, individual patient. © 2010 The Authors. Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2010 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis

PubMed Central

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

Background The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. Methods and finding We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755–0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691–0.783) and 0.742 (0.698–0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. Conclusions According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction. PMID:28060903
The enduring effects of psychodynamic treatments vis-a-vis alternative treatments: A multilevel longitudinal meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlighan, D. Martin, III

Although evidence suggests that the benefits of psychodynamic treatments are sustained over time, presently it is unclear whether these sustained benefits are superior to non-psychodynamic treatments. Additionally, the extant literature comparing the sustained benefits of psychodynamic treatments compared to alternative treatments is limited with methodological shortcomings. The purpose of the current study was to conduct a rigorous test of the growth of the benefits of psychodynamic treatments relative to alternative treatments across distinct domains of change (i.e., all outcome measures, targeted outcome measures, non-targeted outcome measures, and personality outcome measures). To do so, the study employed strict inclusion criteria to identify randomized clinical trials that directly compared at least one bona fide psychodynamic treatment and one bona fide non-psychodynamic treatment. Hierarchical linear modeling (Raudenbush, Bryk, Cheong & Congdon, du Toit, 2011) was used to longitudinally model the impact of psychodynamic treatments compared to non-psychodynamic treatments at post-treatment and to compare the growth (i.e., slope) of effects beyond treatment completion. Findings from the present meta-analysis indicated that psychodynamic treatments and non-psychodynamic treatments were equally efficacious at post-treatment and at follow-up for combined outcomes ( k = 20), targeted outcomes (k =19), non-targeted outcomes (k =17), and personality outcomes (k =6). Clinical implications, directions for future research, and limitations are discussed.
Health versus money. Value judgments in the perspective of decision analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, M S

1983-01-01

An important, but largely uninvestigated, value trade-off balances marginal nonhealth consumption against marginal medical care. Benefit-cost analysts have traditionally, if not fully satisfactorily, dealt with this issue by valuing health gains by their effects on productivity. Cost-effectiveness analysts compare monetary and health effects and leave their relative valuations to decision makers. A decision-analytic model using the satisfaction or utility gained from nonhealth consumption and the level of health enables one to calculate willingness to pay--a theoretically superior way of assigning monetary values to effects for benefit-cost analysis-and to determine minimally acceptable cost-effectiveness ratios. Examples show how a decision-analytic model of utility can differentiate medical actions so essential that failure to take them would be considered negligent from actions so expensive as to be unjustifiable, and can help to determine optimal legal arrangements for compensation for medical malpractice.
Factors Influencing Laboratory Information System Effectiveness Through Strategic Planning in Shiraz Teaching Hospitals.

PubMed

Bahador, Fateme; Sharifian, Roxana; Farhadi, Payam; Jafari, Abdosaleh; Nematolahi, Mohtram; Shokrpour, Nasrin

This study aimed to develop and test a research model that examined 7effective factors on the effectiveness of laboratory information system (LIS) through strategic planning. This research was carried out on total laboratory staff, information technology staff, and laboratory managers in Shiraz (a city in the south of Iran) teaching hospitals by structural equation modeling approach in 2015. The results revealed that there was no significant positive relationship between decisions based on cost-benefit analysis and LIS functionality with LIS effectiveness, but there was a significant positive relationship between other factors and LIS effectiveness. As expected, high levels of strategic information system planning result in increasing LIS effectiveness. The results also showed that the relationship between cost-benefit analysis, LIS functionality, end-user involvement, and information technology-business alignment with strategic information system planning was significant and positive.
Should in-line filters be used in peripheral intravenous catheters to prevent infusion-related phlebitis? A systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Niël-Weise, Barbara S; Stijnen, Theo; van den Broek, Peterhans J

2010-06-01

In this systematic review, we assessed the effect of in-line filters on infusion-related phlebitis associated with peripheral IV catheters. The study was designed as a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. We used MEDLINE and the Cochrane Controlled Trial Register up to August 10, 2009. Two reviewers independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Data on phlebitis were combined when appropriate, using a random-effects model. The impact of the risk of phlebitis in the control group (baseline risk) on the effect of in-line filters was studied by using meta-regression based on the bivariate meta-analysis model. The quality of the evidence was determined by using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) method. Eleven trials (1633 peripheral catheters) were included in this review to compare the effect of in-line filters on the incidence of phlebitis in hospitalized patients. Baseline risks across trials ranged from 23% to 96%. Meta-analysis of all trials showed that in-line filters reduced the risk of infusion-related phlebitis (relative risk, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-1.00). This benefit, however, is very uncertain, because the trials had serious methodological shortcomings and meta-analysis revealed marked unexplained statistical heterogeneity (P < 0.0000, I(2) = 90.4%). The estimated benefit did not depend on baseline risk. In-line filters in peripheral IV catheters cannot be recommended routinely, because evidence of their benefit is uncertain.
A simple way to unify multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) using a Dirichlet distribution in benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Saint-Hilary, Gaelle; Cadour, Stephanie; Robert, Veronique; Gasparini, Mauro

2017-05-01

Quantitative methodologies have been proposed to support decision making in drug development and monitoring. In particular, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) are useful tools to assess the benefit-risk ratio of medicines according to the performances of the treatments on several criteria, accounting for the preferences of the decision makers regarding the relative importance of these criteria. However, even in its probabilistic form, MCDA requires the exact elicitations of the weights of the criteria by the decision makers, which may be difficult to achieve in practice. SMAA allows for more flexibility and can be used with unknown or partially known preferences, but it is less popular due to its increased complexity and the high degree of uncertainty in its results. In this paper, we propose a simple model as a generalization of MCDA and SMAA, by applying a Dirichlet distribution to the weights of the criteria and by making its parameters vary. This unique model permits to fit both MCDA and SMAA, and allows for a more extended exploration of the benefit-risk assessment of treatments. The precision of its results depends on the precision parameter of the Dirichlet distribution, which could be naturally interpreted as the strength of confidence of the decision makers in their elicitation of preferences. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
The NASA/industry Design Analysis Methods for Vibrations (DAMVIBS) program: McDonnell-Douglas Helicopter Company achievements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toossi, Mostafa; Weisenburger, Richard; Hashemi-Kia, Mostafa

1993-01-01

This paper presents a summary of some of the work performed by McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Company under NASA Langley-sponsored rotorcraft structural dynamics program known as DAMVIBS (Design Analysis Methods for VIBrationS). A set of guidelines which is applicable to dynamic modeling, analysis, testing, and correlation of both helicopter airframes and a large variety of structural finite element models is presented. Utilization of these guidelines and the key features of their applications to vibration modeling of helicopter airframes are discussed. Correlation studies with the test data, together with the development and applications of a set of efficient finite element model checkout procedures, are demonstrated on a large helicopter airframe finite element model. Finally, the lessons learned and the benefits resulting from this program are summarized.
Quantifying the efficiency and equity implications of power plant air pollution control strategies in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levy, J.I.; Wilson, A.M.; Zwack, L.M.

2007-05-15

We modeled the public health benefits and the change in the spatial inequality of health risk for a number of hypothetical control scenarios for power plants in the United States to determine optimal control strategies. We simulated various ways by which emission reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) could be distributed to reach national emissions caps. We applied a source-receptor matrix to determine the PM2.5 concentration changes associated with each control scenario and estimated the mortality reductions. We estimated changes in the spatial inequality of health risk using the Atkinson index and othermore » indicators, following previously derived axioms for measuring health risk inequality. In our baseline model, benefits ranged from 17,000-21,000 fewer premature deaths per year across control scenarios. Scenarios with greater health benefits also tended to have greater reductions in the spatial inequality of health risk, as many sources with high health benefits per unit emissions of SO{sub 2} were in areas with high background PM2.5 concentrations. Sensitivity analyses indicated that conclusions were generally robust to the choice of indicator and other model specifications. Our analysis demonstrates an approach for formally quantifying both the magnitude and spatial distribution of health benefits of pollution control strategies, allowing for joint consideration of efficiency and equity.« less
Emission projections for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Section 812 second prospective Clean Air Act cost/benefit analysis.

PubMed

Wilson, James H; Mullen, Maureen A; Bollman, Andrew D; Thesing, Kirstin B; Salhotra, Manish; Divita, Frank; Neumann, James E; Price, Jason C; DeMocker, James

2008-05-01

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of programs implemented pursuant to the CAAA. The first prospective analysis was completed in 1999. The second prospective analysis was initiated during 2005. The first step in the second prospective analysis was the development of base and projection year emission estimates that will be used to generate benefit estimates of CAAA programs. This paper describes the analysis, methods, and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005) projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48-state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs) that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM2.5 NAAQS. This analysis shows that the 1990 CAAA have produced significant reductions in criteria pollutant emissions since 1990 and that these emission reductions are expected to continue through 2020. CAAA provisions have reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by approximately 7 million t/yr by 2000, and are estimated to produce associated VOC emission reductions of 16.7 million t by 2020. Total oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions attributable to the CAAA are 5, 12, and 17 million t in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission benefits during the study period are dominated by electricity-generating unit (EGU) SO2 emission reductions. These EGU emission benefits go from 7.5 million t reduced in 2000 to 15 million t reduced in 2020.
Modeled forest inventory data suggest climate benefits from fuels management

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Jonathan. Sandquist

2013-01-01

As part of a recent synthesis addressing fuel management in dry, mixed-conifer forests we analyzed more than 5,000 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, a probability sample that represents 33 million acres of these forests throughout Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and extreme northern California. We relied on the BioSum analysis framework that...
Using Molecular Visualization to Explore Protein Structure and Function and Enhance Student Facility with Computational Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terrell, Cassidy R.; Listenberger, Laura L.

2017-01-01

Recognizing that undergraduate students can benefit from analysis of 3D protein structure and function, we have developed a multiweek, inquiry-based molecular visualization project for Biochemistry I students. This project uses a virtual model of cyclooxygenase-1 (COX-1) to guide students through multiple levels of protein structure analysis. The…
Exploratory Analysis of Survey Data for Understanding Adoption of Novel Aerospace Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Lauren M.

In order to meet the increasing demand for manned and unmanned flight, the air transportation system must constantly evolve. As new technologies or operational procedures are conceived, we must determine their effect on humans in the system. In this research, we introduce a strategy to assess how individuals or organizations would respond to a novel aerospace system. We employ the most appropriate and sophisticated exploratory analysis techniques on the survey data to generate insight and identify significant variables. We employ three different methods for eliciting views from individuals or organizations who are affected by a system: an opinion survey, a stated preference survey, and structured interviews. We conduct an opinion survey of both the general public and stakeholders in the unmanned aircraft industry to assess their knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding unmanned aircraft. We complete a statistical analysis of the multiple-choice questions using multinomial logit and multivariate probit models and conduct qualitative analysis on free-text questions. We next present a stated preference survey of the general public on the use of an unmanned aircraft package delivery service. We complete a statistical analysis of the questions using multinomial logit, ordered probit, linear regression, and negative binomial models. Finally, we discuss structured interviews conducted on stakeholders from ANSPs and airlines operating in the North Atlantic. We describe how these groups may choose to adopt a new technology (space-based ADS-B) or operational procedure (in-trail procedures). We discuss similarities and differences between the stakeholders groups, the benefits and costs of in-trail procedures and space-based ADS-B as reported by the stakeholders, and interdependencies between the groups interviewed. To demonstrate the value of the data we generated, we explore how the findings from the surveys can be used to better characterize uncertainty in the cost-benefit analysis of aerospace systems. We demonstrate how the findings from the opinion and stated preference surveys can be infused into the cost-benefit analysis of an unmanned aircraft delivery system. We also demonstrate how to apply the findings from the interviews to characterize uncertainty in the estimation of the benefits of space-based ADS-B.
Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

Treesearch

A.A. Ager; M.A. Finney; A. McMahan; J. Carthcart

2010-01-01

Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon...
The Dubious Benefits of Multi-Level Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorard, Stephen

2007-01-01

This paper presents an argument against the wider adoption of complex forms of data analysis, using multi-level modeling (MLM) as an extended case study. MLM was devised to overcome some deficiencies in existing datasets, such as the bias caused by clustering. The paper suggests that MLM has an unclear theoretical and empirical basis, has not led…
A Value-Added Approach to Selecting the Best Master of Business Administration (MBA) Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fisher, Dorothy M.; Kiang, Melody; Fisher, Steven A.

2007-01-01

Although numerous studies rank master of business administration (MBA) programs, prospective students' selection of the best MBA program is a formidable task. In this study, the authors used a linear-programming-based model called data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate MBA programs. The DEA model connects costs to benefits to evaluate the…
Value of Earth Observations: Key principles and techniques of socioeconomic benefits analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, L.; Macauley, M.; Bernknopf, R.

2013-12-01

Internationally, multiple organizations are placing greater emphasis on the societal benefits that governments, businesses, and NGOs can derive from applications of Earth-observing satellite observations, research, and models. A growing set of qualitative, anecdotal examples on the uses of Earth observations across a range of sectors can be complemented by the quantitative substantiation of the socioeconomic benefits. In turn, the expanding breadth of environmental data available and the awareness of their beneficial applications to inform decisions can support new products and services by companies, agencies, and civil society. There are, however, significant efforts needed to bridge the Earth sciences and social and economic sciences fields to build capacity, develop case studies, and refine analytic techniques in quantifying socioeconomic benefits from the use of Earth observations. Some government programs, such as the NASA Earth Science Division's Applied Sciences Program have initiated activities in recent years to quantify the socioeconomic benefits from applications of Earth observations research, and to develop multidisciplinary models for organizations' decision-making activities. A community of practice has conducted workshops, developed impact analysis reports, published a book, developed a primer, and pursued other activities to advance analytic methodologies and build capacity. This paper will present an overview of measuring socioeconomic impacts of Earth observations and how the measures can be translated into a value of Earth observation information. It will address key terms, techniques, principles and applications of socioeconomic impact analyses. It will also discuss activities to pursue a research agenda on analytic techniques, develop a body of knowledge, and promote broader skills and capabilities.
Modeling the impact of the nitrate contamination on groundwater at the groundwater body scale : The Geer basin case study (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouyere, S.; Orban, P.; Hérivaux, C.

2009-12-01

In the next decades, groundwater managers will have to face regional degradation of the quantity and quality of groundwater under pressure of land-use and socio-economic changes. In this context, the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive require that groundwater be managed at the scale of the groundwater body, taking into account not only all components of the water cycle but also the socio-economic impact of these changes. One of the main challenges remains to develop robust and efficient numerical modeling applications at such a scale and to couple them with economic models, as a support for decision support in groundwater management. An integrated approach between hydrogeologists and economists has been developed by coupling the hydrogeological model SUFT3D and a cost-benefit economic analysis to study the impact of agricultural practices on groundwater quality and to design cost-effective mitigation measures to decrease nitrate pressure on groundwater so as to ensure the highest benefit to the society. A new modeling technique, the ‘Hybrid Finite Element Mixing Cell’ approach has been developed for large scale modeling purposes. The principle of this method is to fully couple different mathematical and numerical approaches to solve groundwater flow and solute transport problems. The mathematical and numerical approaches proposed allows an adaptation to the level of local hydrogeological knowledge and the amount of available data. In combination with long time series of nitrate concentrations and tritium data, the regional scale modelling approach has been used to develop a 3D spatially distributed groundwater flow and solute transport model for the Geer basin (Belgium) of about 480 km2. The model is able to reproduce the spatial patterns of nitrate concentrations together nitrate trends with time. The model has then been used to predict the future evolution of nitrate trends for two types of scenarios: (i) a “business as usual scenario” where current polluting pressures remain the same and (ii) two contrasted scenarios that simulate the implementation of programs of measures aiming at reaching good chemical status. The results of the hydrogeological model under the “business as usual scenario” have been used to assess the cost for the society of the continuous degradation of the groundwater quality. The results of the hydrogeological model under the two contrasted scenarios have been used to assess the economical benefit as avoided damage resulting from the decrease in the nitrate load. A cost-benefit analysis has been thus performed to assess the programme of mitigation measures which provides the largest benefits at the lowest cost.
Multi-energy Coordinated Evaluation for Energy Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Dongqiang; Sun, Jian; Wang, Cunping; Hong, Xiao; Ma, Xiufan; Xiong, Wenting; Shen, Yaqi

2017-05-01

This paper reviews the current research status of multi-energy coordinated evaluation for energy Internet. Taking the coordinated optimization effect of wind energy, solar energy and other energy sources into consideration, 17 evaluation indexes, such as the substitution coefficient of cold heat and power, the ratio of wind and solar energy, and the rate of energy storage ratio, were designed from five aspects, including the acceptance of renewable energy, energy complementary alternative benefits, peak valley difference, the degree of equipment utilization and user needs. At the same time, this article attaches importance to the economic and social benefits of the coordination of multiple energy sources. Ultimately, a comprehensive multi-energy coordination evaluation index system of regional energy Internet was put forward from the safe operation, coordination and optimization, economic and social benefits four aspects, and a comprehensive evaluation model was established. This model uses the optimal combination weighting method based on moment estimation and Topsis evaluation analysis method, so both the subjective and objective weight of the index are considered and the coordinate evaluation of multi-energy is realized. Finally the perfection of the index system and the validity of the evaluation method are verified by a case analysis.
Bite the apple, get driven out of the garden: A risky story telling at the ASME town meeting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, K.C.

1994-11-01

Risk, the all-encompassing four-letter word became a widely used household cliche and an institutional mantra in the nineties. Risk analysis models from the Garden of Eden to the Capitol Hill lawn have made a number of sharp paradigm shifts to evolve itself as a decision-making tool from individual risk perception to societal risk-based regulatory media. Risk always coexists with benefit and is arbitrated by costs. Risk-benefit analysis has been in use in business and industry in economic ventures for a long time. Only recently risk management in its current state of development, evolved as a regulatory tool for controlling largemore » technological systems that have potential impacts on the health and safety of the public and on the sustainability of the ecology and the environment. This paper summarizes the evolution of the risk management concepts and models in industry and the regulatory agencies in the US over the last three decades. It also discusses the benefits and limitations of this evolving discipline as it is applied to high-risk technologies from the nuclear power plant and petrochemical industry, etc. to nuclear weapons technology.« less

Impact of Transport Zone Number in Simulation Models on Cost-Benefit Analysis Results in Transport Investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chmielewski, Jacek

2017-10-01

Nowadays, feasibility studies need to be prepared for all planned transport investments, mainly those co-financed with UE grants. One of the fundamental aspect of feasibility study is the economic justification of an investment, evaluated in an area of so called cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The main goal of CBA calculation is to prove that a transport investment is really important for the society and should be implemented as economically efficient one. It can be said that the number of hours (PH - passengers hours) in trips and travelled kilometres (PK - passengers kilometres) are the most important for CBA results. The differences between PH and PK calculated for particular investment scenarios are the base for benefits calculation. Typically, transport simulation models are the best source for such data. Transport simulation models are one of the most powerful tools for transport network planning. They make it possible to evaluate forecast traffic volume and passenger flows in a public transport system for defined scenarios of transport and area development. There are many different transport models. Their construction is often similar, and they mainly differ in the level of their accuracy. Even models for the same area may differ in this matter. Typically, such differences come from the accuracy of supply side representation: road and public transport network representation. In many cases only main roads and a public transport network are represented, while local and service roads are eliminated as a way of reality simplification. This also enables a faster and more effective calculation process. On the other hand, the description of demand part of these models based on transport zones is often stable. Difficulties with data collection, mainly data on land use, resulted in the lack of changes in the analysed land division into so called transport zones. In this paper the author presents an influence of land division on the results of traffic analyses, and hence on CBA outcome. Moreover, the paper shows that the effectiveness of investments as represented in the results of cost-benefit analyses is strictly correlated to a transport model detail.
Citygml and the Streets of New York - a Proposal for Detailed Street Space Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beil, C.; Kolbe, T. H.

2017-10-01

Three-dimensional semantic city models are increasingly used for the analysis of large urban areas. Until now the focus has mostly been on buildings. Nonetheless many applications could also benefit from detailed models of public street space for further analysis. However, there are only few guidelines for representing roads within city models. Therefore, related standards dealing with street modelling are examined and discussed. Nearly all street representations are based on linear abstractions. However, there are many use cases that require or would benefit from the detailed geometrical and semantic representation of street space. A variety of potential applications for detailed street space models are presented. Subsequently, based on related standards as well as on user requirements, a concept for a CityGML-compliant representation of street space in multiple levels of detail is developed. In the course of this process, the CityGML Transportation model of the currently valid OGC standard CityGML2.0 is examined to discover possibilities for further developments. Moreover, a number of improvements are presented. Finally, based on open data sources, the proposed concept is implemented within a semantic 3D city model of New York City generating a detailed 3D street space model for the entire city. As a result, 11 thematic classes, such as roadbeds, sidewalks or traffic islands are generated and enriched with a large number of thematic attributes.
Multivariate Autoregressive Modeling and Granger Causality Analysis of Multiple Spike Trains

PubMed Central

Krumin, Michael; Shoham, Shy

2010-01-01

Recent years have seen the emergence of microelectrode arrays and optical methods allowing simultaneous recording of spiking activity from populations of neurons in various parts of the nervous system. The analysis of multiple neural spike train data could benefit significantly from existing methods for multivariate time-series analysis which have proven to be very powerful in the modeling and analysis of continuous neural signals like EEG signals. However, those methods have not generally been well adapted to point processes. Here, we use our recent results on correlation distortions in multivariate Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson spiking neuron models to derive generalized Yule-Walker-type equations for fitting ‘‘hidden” Multivariate Autoregressive models. We use this new framework to perform Granger causality analysis in order to extract the directed information flow pattern in networks of simulated spiking neurons. We discuss the relative merits and limitations of the new method. PMID:20454705
The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Nelson, Caroline; Shapiro, Gerald

1998-01-01

The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.
HIV Treatment and Prevention: A Simple Model to Determine Optimal Investment.

PubMed

Juusola, Jessie L; Brandeau, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To create a simple model to help public health decision makers determine how to best invest limited resources in HIV treatment scale-up and prevention. A linear model was developed for determining the optimal mix of investment in HIV treatment and prevention, given a fixed budget. The model incorporates estimates of secondary health benefits accruing from HIV treatment and prevention and allows for diseconomies of scale in program costs and subadditive benefits from concurrent program implementation. Data sources were published literature. The target population was individuals infected with HIV or at risk of acquiring it. Illustrative examples of interventions include preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), community-based education (CBE), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US. Outcome measures were incremental cost, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and HIV infections averted. Base case analysis indicated that it is optimal to invest in ART before PrEP and to invest in CBE before scaling up ART. Diseconomies of scale reduced the optimal investment level. Subadditivity of benefits did not affect the optimal allocation for relatively low implementation levels. The sensitivity analysis indicated that investment in ART before PrEP was optimal in all scenarios tested. Investment in ART before CBE became optimal when CBE reduced risky behavior by 4% or less. Limitations of the study are that dynamic effects are approximated with a static model. Our model provides a simple yet accurate means of determining optimal investment in HIV prevention and treatment. For MSM in the US, HIV control funds should be prioritized on inexpensive, effective programs like CBE, then on ART scale-up, with only minimal investment in PrEP. © The Author(s) 2015.
[Cybernetics and biology].

PubMed

Vasil'ev, G F

2013-01-01

Owing to methodical disadvantages, the theory of control still lacks the potential for the analysis of biological systems. To get the full benefit of the method in addition to the algorithmic model of control (as of today the only used model in the theory of control) a parametric model of control is offered to employ. The reasoning for it is explained. The approach suggested provides the possibility to use all potential of the modern theory of control for the analysis of biological systems. The cybernetic approach is shown taking a system of the rise of glucose concentration in blood as an example.
Reducing uncertainty in value-based pricing using evidence development agreements: the case of continuous intraduodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) in Sweden.

PubMed

Willis, Michael; Persson, Ulf; Zoellner, York; Gradl, Birgit

2010-01-01

Value-based pricing (VBP), whereby prices are set according to the perceived benefits offered to the consumer at a time when costs and benefits are characterized by considerable uncertainty and are then reviewed ex post, is a much discussed topic in pharmaceutical reimbursement. It is usually combined with coverage with evidence development (CED), a tool in which manufacturers are granted temporary reimbursement but are required to collect and submit additional health economic data at review. Many countries, including the UK, are signalling shifts in this direction. Several countries, including Sweden, have already adopted this approach and offer good insight into the benefits and pitfalls in actual practice. To describe VBP reimbursement decision making using CED in actual practice in Sweden. Decision making by The Dental and Pharmaceutical Benefits Agency (TLV) in Sweden was reviewed using a case study of continuous intraduodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) in the treatment of advanced Parkinson's disease (PD) with severe motor fluctuations. The manufacturer of Duodopa® applied for reimbursement in late 2003. While the proper economic data were not included in the submission, TLV granted reimbursement until early 2005 to provide time for the manufacturer to submit a formal economic evaluation. The re-submission with economic data was considered inadequate to judge cost effectiveness, so TLV granted an additional extension of reimbursement until August 2007, at which time conclusive data were expected. The manufacturer initiated a 3-year, prospective health economic study and a formal economic model. Data from a pre-planned interim analysis of the data were loaded into the model and the cost-effectiveness ratio was the basis of the next re-submission. TLV concluded that the data were suitable for making a definite decision and that the drug was not cost effective, deciding to discontinue reimbursement for any new patients (current patients were unaffected). The manufacturer continued to collect data and to improve the economic model and re-submitted in 2008. New data and the improved model resulted in reduced uncertainty and a lower cost-effectiveness ratio in the range of Swedish kronor (SEK)430,000 per QALY gained in the base-case analysis, ranging up to SEK900,000 in the most conservative sensitivity analysis, resulting in reimbursement being granted. The case of Duodopa® provides excellent insight into VBP reimbursement decision making in combination with CED and ex post review in actual practice. Publicly available decisions document the rigorous, time-consuming process (four iterations were required before a final decision could be reached). The data generated as part of the risk-sharing agreement proved correct the initial decision to grant limited coverage despite lack of economic data. Access was provided to 100 patients while evidence was generated. Economic appraisal differs from clinical assessment, and decision makers benefit from analysis of naturalistic, actual practice data. Despite reviewing the initial trial-based, 'piggy-back' economic analysis, TLV was uncertain of the cost effectiveness in actual practice and deferred a final decision until observational data from the DAPHNE study became available. Second, acceptance of economic modelling and use of temporary reimbursement conditional on additional evidence development provide a mechanism for risk sharing between TLV and manufacturers, which enabled patient access to a drug with proven clinical benefit while necessary evidence to support claims of cost effectiveness could be generated.
Rational analyses of information foraging on the web.

PubMed

Pirolli, Peter

2005-05-06

This article describes rational analyses and cognitive models of Web users developed within information foraging theory. This is done by following the rational analysis methodology of (a) characterizing the problems posed by the environment, (b) developing rational analyses of behavioral solutions to those problems, and (c) developing cognitive models that approach the realization of those solutions. Navigation choice is modeled as a random utility model that uses spreading activation mechanisms that link proximal cues (information scent) that occur in Web browsers to internal user goals. Web-site leaving is modeled as an ongoing assessment by the Web user of the expected benefits of continuing at a Web site as opposed to going elsewhere. These cost-benefit assessments are also based on spreading activation models of information scent. Evaluations include a computational model of Web user behavior called Scent-Based Navigation and Information Foraging in the ACT Architecture, and the Law of Surfing, which characterizes the empirical distribution of the length of paths of visitors at a Web site. 2005 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.
Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtney

2010-01-01

Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.
Household Food Waste: Multivariate Regression and Principal Components Analyses of Awareness and Attitudes among U.S. Consumers

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We estimate models of consumer food waste awareness and attitudes using responses from a national survey of U.S. residents. Our models are interpreted through the lens of several theories that describe how pro-social behaviors relate to awareness, attitudes and opinions. Our analysis of patterns among respondents’ food waste attitudes yields a model with three principal components: one that represents perceived practical benefits households may lose if food waste were reduced, one that represents the guilt associated with food waste, and one that represents whether households feel they could be doing more to reduce food waste. We find our respondents express significant agreement that some perceived practical benefits are ascribed to throwing away uneaten food, e.g., nearly 70% of respondents agree that throwing away food after the package date has passed reduces the odds of foodborne illness, while nearly 60% agree that some food waste is necessary to ensure meals taste fresh. We identify that these attitudinal responses significantly load onto a single principal component that may represent a key attitudinal construct useful for policy guidance. Further, multivariate regression analysis reveals a significant positive association between the strength of this component and household income, suggesting that higher income households most strongly agree with statements that link throwing away uneaten food to perceived private benefits. PMID:27441687
Decision Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Screening for Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

waiting (WW) as experienced in the PIVOT study or active surveillance (AS), radical prostatectomy (RP), radiation therapy (IMRT), and brachytherapy...strategies for low-risk, clinically localized prostate cancer. In the initial iteration of this model, the strategies studied included active surveillance...with regard to modeling PSA kinetics. Task 1.4 Calibrate the model using data from published studies of the natural history of conservatively- treated
Understanding Satellite Characterization Knowledge Gained from Radiometric Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

observation model, the time - resolved pose of a satellite can be estimated autonomously through each pass from non- resolved radiometry. The benefits of...and we assume the satellite can achieve both the set attitude and the necessary maneuver to change its orientation from one time -step to the next...Observation Model The UKF observation model uses the Time domain Analysis Simulation for Advanced Tracking (TASAT) software to provide high-fidelity satellite
Assessing the Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization Within an Integrated Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, R. H.

2015-12-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been a number of studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry. However, relatively few studies explore climate change impacts on both agriculture and forests simultaneously, including the interactions between alternative land uses and implications for market outcomes. Additionally, there is a lack of detailed analyses of the effects of stabilization scenarios relative to unabated emissions scenarios. Such analyses are important for developing estimates of the benefits of those stabilization scenarios, which can play a vital role in assessing tradeoffs associated with allocating resources across alternative mitigation and adaptation activities. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.
I Want Your Sex: The Role of Sexual Exploration in Fostering Positive Sexual Self-Concepts for Heterosexual and Sexual Minority Women

PubMed Central

Parent, Mike C.; Talley, Amelia E.; Schwartz, Esther N.; Hancock, David W.

2015-01-01

Openness and self-exploration have been associated with myriad benefits. Within the realm of sexuality, sexual exploration may be 1 facet of openness and self-exploration that yields benefits. Prior literature suggests that such exploration may have benefits for sexual orientation minority persons, though limited research has investigated the benefits of sexual exploration for heterosexuals. The present study used data from 346 adult women (185 exclusively heterosexual, 161 not exclusively heterosexual) to investigate the role of sexual exploration as a mediator between sexual orientation status and positivity toward sex. Results of a structural equation modeling analysis supported mediation of the relationship between sexual orientation and sexual positivity via sexual exploration. Implications for future research and clinical interventions are presented. PMID:26380352
I Want Your Sex: The Role of Sexual Exploration in Fostering Positive Sexual Self-Concepts for Heterosexual and Sexual Minority Women.

PubMed

Parent, Mike C; Talley, Amelia E; Schwartz, Esther N; Hancock, David W

2015-06-01

Openness and self-exploration have been associated with myriad benefits. Within the realm of sexuality, sexual exploration may be 1 facet of openness and self-exploration that yields benefits. Prior literature suggests that such exploration may have benefits for sexual orientation minority persons, though limited research has investigated the benefits of sexual exploration for heterosexuals. The present study used data from 346 adult women (185 exclusively heterosexual, 161 not exclusively heterosexual) to investigate the role of sexual exploration as a mediator between sexual orientation status and positivity toward sex. Results of a structural equation modeling analysis supported mediation of the relationship between sexual orientation and sexual positivity via sexual exploration. Implications for future research and clinical interventions are presented.
Structural modeling and analysis of an effluent treatment process for electroplating--a graph theoretic approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Abhishek; Clement, Shibu; Agrawal, V P

2010-07-15

An attempt is made to address a few ecological and environment issues by developing different structural models for effluent treatment system for electroplating. The effluent treatment system is defined with the help of different subsystems contributing to waste minimization. Hierarchical tree and block diagram showing all possible interactions among subsystems are proposed. These non-mathematical diagrams are converted into mathematical models for design improvement, analysis, comparison, storage retrieval and commercially off-the-shelf purchases of different subsystems. This is achieved by developing graph theoretic model, matrix models and variable permanent function model. Analysis is carried out by permanent function, hierarchical tree and block diagram methods. Storage and retrieval is done using matrix models. The methodology is illustrated with the help of an example. Benefits to the electroplaters/end user are identified. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Study for analysis of benefit versus cost of low thrust propulsion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlyn, K. M.; Robertson, R. I.; Rose, L. J.

1983-01-01

The benefits and costs associated with placing large space systems (LSS) in operational orbits were investigated, and a flexible computer model for analyzing these benefits and costs was developed. A mission model for LSS was identified that included both NASA/Commercial and DOD missions. This model included a total of 68 STS launches for the NASA/Commercial missions and 202 launches for the DOD missions. The mission catalog was of sufficient depth to define the structure type, mass and acceleration limits of each LSS. Conceptual primary propulsion stages (PPS) designs for orbital transfer were developed for three low thrust LO2/LH2 engines baselined for the study. The performance characteristics for each of these PPS was compared to the LSS mission catalog to create a mission capture. The costs involved in placing the LSS in their operational orbits were identified. The two primary costs were that of the PPS and of the STS launch. The cost of the LSS was not included as it is not a function of the PPS performance. The basic relationships and algorithms that could be used to describe the costs were established. The benefit criteria for the mission model were also defined. These included mission capture, reliability, technical risk, development time, and growth potential. Rating guidelines were established for each parameter. For flexibility, each parameter is assigned a weighting factor.
Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.
An Investigation of Human Performance Model Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

of design decisions, what the costs and benefits are for each of the stages of analysis options. On the ’benefits’ side, the manager needs to know...confidence. But we also want to know that we are not expending any more effort (and other costs ) than necessary to ensure that the right decision is...supported at each stage. Ultimately, we want to enable SBA managers to have confidence that they are selecting the right HPM tools and using them correctly in
Benefits and Costs of Improved Cookstoves: Assessing the Implications of Variability in Health, Forest and Climate Impacts

PubMed Central

Jeuland, Marc A.; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.

2012-01-01

Current attention to improved cook stoves (ICS) focuses on the “triple benefits” they provide, in improved health and time savings for households, in preservation of forests and associated ecosystem services, and in reducing emissions that contribute to global climate change. Despite the purported economic benefits of such technologies, however, progress in achieving large-scale adoption and use has been remarkably slow. This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation analysis to evaluate the claim that households will always reap positive and large benefits from the use of such technologies. Our analysis allows for better understanding of the variability in economic costs and benefits of ICS use in developing countries, which depend on unknown combinations of numerous uncertain parameters. The model results suggest that the private net benefits of ICS will sometimes be negative, and in many instances highly so. Moreover, carbon financing and social subsidies may help enhance incentives to adopt, but will not always be appropriate. The costs and benefits of these technologies are most affected by their relative fuel costs, time and fuel use efficiencies, the incidence and cost-of-illness of acute respiratory illness, and the cost of household cooking time. Combining these results with the fact that households often find these technologies to be inconvenient or culturally inappropriate leads us to understand why uptake has been disappointing. Given the current attention to the scale up of ICS, this analysis is timely and important for highlighting some of the challenges for global efforts to promote ICS. PMID:22348005

Sculpting Computational-Level Models.

PubMed

Blokpoel, Mark

2017-06-27

In this commentary, I advocate for strict relations between Marr's levels of analysis. Under a strict relationship, each level is exactly implemented by the subordinate level. This yields two benefits. First, it brings consistency for multilevel explanations. Second, similar to how a sculptor chisels away superfluous marble, a modeler can chisel a computational-level model by applying constraints. By sculpting the model, one restricts the (potentially infinitely large) set of possible algorithmic- and implementational-level theories. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Statistical Analysis of Individual Participant Data Meta-Analyses: A Comparison of Methods and Recommendations for Practice

PubMed Central

Stewart, Gavin B.; Altman, Douglas G.; Askie, Lisa M.; Duley, Lelia; Simmonds, Mark C.; Stewart, Lesley A.

2012-01-01

Background Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses that obtain “raw” data from studies rather than summary data typically adopt a “two-stage” approach to analysis whereby IPD within trials generate summary measures, which are combined using standard meta-analytical methods. Recently, a range of “one-stage” approaches which combine all individual participant data in a single meta-analysis have been suggested as providing a more powerful and flexible approach. However, they are more complex to implement and require statistical support. This study uses a dataset to compare “two-stage” and “one-stage” models of varying complexity, to ascertain whether results obtained from the approaches differ in a clinically meaningful way. Methods and Findings We included data from 24 randomised controlled trials, evaluating antiplatelet agents, for the prevention of pre-eclampsia in pregnancy. We performed two-stage and one-stage IPD meta-analyses to estimate overall treatment effect and to explore potential treatment interactions whereby particular types of women and their babies might benefit differentially from receiving antiplatelets. Two-stage and one-stage approaches gave similar results, showing a benefit of using anti-platelets (Relative risk 0.90, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.97). Neither approach suggested that any particular type of women benefited more or less from antiplatelets. There were no material differences in results between different types of one-stage model. Conclusions For these data, two-stage and one-stage approaches to analysis produce similar results. Although one-stage models offer a flexible environment for exploring model structure and are useful where across study patterns relating to types of participant, intervention and outcome mask similar relationships within trials, the additional insights provided by their usage may not outweigh the costs of statistical support for routine application in syntheses of randomised controlled trials. Researchers considering undertaking an IPD meta-analysis should not necessarily be deterred by a perceived need for sophisticated statistical methods when combining information from large randomised trials. PMID:23056232
The financial impact of a clinical academic practice partnership.

PubMed

Greene, Mary Ann; Turner, James

2014-01-01

New strategies to provide clinical experiences for nursing students have caused nursing schools and hospitals to evaluate program costs. A Microsoft Excel model, which captures costs and associated benefits, was developed and is described here. The financial analysis shows that the Clinical Academic Practice Program framework for nursing clinical education, often preferred by students, can offer financial advantages to participating hospitals and schools of nursing. The model is potentially a tool for schools of nursing to enlist hospitals and to help manage expenses of clinical education. Hospitals may also use the Hospital Nursing Unit Staffing and Expense Worksheet in planning staffing when students are assigned to units and the cost/benefit findings to enlist management support.
[Current status of nurses' perceived professional benefits and influencing factors in 3A-level hospitals in Tianjin].

PubMed

Ma, H W; Dan, X; Xu, S H; Hou, R N; Zhao, N M

2017-06-20

Objective: To investigate the current status of nurses' perceived professional benefits in 3A-level hospitals in Tianjin, and analyze its influencing factors. Methods: A total of 421 clinical nurses from five 3A-level hospitals in Tianjin were recruited for investigation on perceived professional benefits by Nurses'Perceived Professional Benefits Scale. Results: The total score of nurses' perceived professional benefit was 110.50±14.24, the score index was 77.34%. Among five dimensions, the highest scores index was 84.80% for personal development, the lowest was 71.57% for identification by relatives and friends. Multiple linear regression analysis showed the three variables, such as department, teaching and cooperative relation between doctors and nurses entered the model, higher perceived professional benefits was observed in medical nurses, teaching nurses, and those with better cooperative relation between doctors and nurses ( P <0.05) . Conclusion: The investigated nurses in 3A-level hospitals in Tianjin show upper-moderate level of perceived professional benefits. Nursing managers should develop targeted interventions based on the factors affecting the perceived professional benefits of the nurses and further enhance their perceived professional benefits.
Resilience of Socio-Hydrological Systems in Canadian Prairies to Agricultural Drainage: Policy Analysis and Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.; Xu, L.; Gober, P.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wong, J.

2017-12-01

Extensive agricultural drainage of lakes and wetlands in the Canadian Prairies has led to benefits for agricultural production, but has had a substantial influence on hydrological regimes and wetland extent. There is need for the potential impacts of current policy in changing the socio-hydrological resilience of prairie wetland basins in response to agricultural drainage to be examined. Whilst wetland drainage can increase agricultural productivity, it can also reduce stocks of natural capital and decrease ecosystem services, such as pollutant retention, habitat for waterfowls, carbon sequestration, and downstream flood attenuation. Effective policies that balance drainage benefits and negative externalities have to consider pricing. This is explored here using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model for hydrological simulations and the Inclusive Wealth approach for modelling in support of cost-benefit analysis. Inclusive wealth aggregates the value of natural, human, and technological assets used to produce social welfare. A shadow price, defined as the marginal change in social value for a marginal change in the current stock quantity, is used to valuate assets that contribute to social welfare. The shadow price of each asset is estimated by taking into account the social and economic benefits and external losses of wetland services caused by wetland drainage. The coupled model was applied to the Smith Creek Research Basin in south-eastern Saskatchewan, Canada where wetland drainage has caused major alterations of the hydrological regime including increased peak flows, discharge volumes and duration of streamflow. Changes in depressional storage in wetlands was used to calculate the corresponding changes of inclusive wealth over a 30-year period under the impacts from the limitation proposed in the Agricultural Water Management Strategy of Saskatchewan. The adjusted societal values of drainage demonstrate the dynamics between changes in hydrological conditions of wetland basins and social welfare, which help to evaluate potential impacts of the current policy on the resilience and sustainability of socio-hydrological systems. The results also help determine effective goals for management to maximize the societal benefits of drainage and minimize its negative impacts on ecosystem functions.
Wildland fire management. Volume 1: Prevention methods and analysis. [systems engineering approach to California fire problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weissenberger, S. (Editor)

1973-01-01

A systems engineering approach is reported for the problem of reducing the number and severity of California's wildlife fires. Prevention methodologies are reviewed and cost benefit models are developed for making preignition decisions.
Induced traffic and induced demand in benefit-cost analysis - draft

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-07-01

Subsequent to the US DOT's 1995 "conditions and Performance" report to Congress, the HERS (Highway Economic Requirements System) model used by FHWA to evaluate national highway investment options was modified to incorporate both short run and long ru...
Incorporating Experience Curves in Appliance Standards Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garbesi, Karina; Chan, Peter; Greenblatt, Jeffery

2011-10-31

The technical analyses in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have typically assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. There is, however, considerable evidence that this assumption does not reflect real market prices. Costs and prices generally fall in relation to cumulative production, a phenomenon known as experience and modeled by a fairly robust empirical experience curve. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and shipment data obtained as part of the standards analysis process, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners,more » clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These allow us to develop more representative appliance price projections than the assumption-based approach of constant prices. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards for these products. The impact on the national modeling can be significant, often increasing the net present value of potential standard levels in the analysis. In some cases a previously cost-negative potential standard level demonstrates a benefit when incorporating experience. These results imply that past energy conservation standards analyses may have undervalued the economic benefits of potential standard levels.« less
Cost-benefit analysis of telehealth in pre-hospital care.

PubMed

Langabeer, James R; Champagne-Langabeer, Tiffany; Alqusairi, Diaa; Kim, Junghyun; Jackson, Adria; Persse, David; Gonzalez, Michael

2017-09-01

Objective There has been very little use of telehealth in pre-hospital emergency medical services (EMS), yet the potential exists for this technology to transform the current delivery model. In this study, we explore the costs and benefits of one large telehealth EMS initiative. Methods Using a case-control study design and both micro- and gross-costing data from the Houston Fire Department EMS electronic patient care record system, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) comparing costs with potential savings associated with patients treated through a telehealth-enabled intervention. The intervention consisted of telehealth-based consultation between the 911 patient and an EMS physician, to evaluate and triage the necessity for patient transport to a hospital emergency department (ED). Patients with non-urgent, primary care-related conditions were then scheduled and transported by alternative means to an affiliated primary care clinic. We measured CBA as both total cost savings and cost per ED visit averted, in US Dollars ($USD). Results In total, 5570 patients were treated over the first full 12 months with a telehealth-enabled care model. We found a 6.7% absolute reduction in potentially medically unnecessary ED visits, and a 44-minute reduction in total ambulance back-in-service times. The average cost for a telehealth patient was $167, which was a statistically significantly $103 less than the control group ( p < .0001). The programme produced a $928,000 annual cost savings from the societal perspective, or $2468 cost savings per ED visit averted (benefit). Conclusion Patient care enabled by telehealth in a pre-hospital environment, is a more cost effective alternative compared to the traditional EMS 'treat and transport to ED' model.
Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

PubMed

Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.
Who Benefits From Supported Employment: A Meta-analytic Study

PubMed Central

Campbell, Kikuko; Drake, Robert E.

2011-01-01

Aims: This meta-analysis sought to identify which subgroups of clients with severe mental illness (SMI) benefited from evidence-based supported employment. Methods: We used meta-analysis to pool the samples from 4 randomized controlled trials comparing the Individual Placement and Support (IPS) model of supported employment to well-regarded vocational approaches using stepwise models and brokered services. Meta-analysis was used to determine the magnitude of effects for IPS/control group differences within specific client subgroups (defined by 2 work history, 7 sociodemographic, and 8 clinical variables) on 3 competitive employment outcomes (obtaining a job, total weeks worked, and job tenure). Results: The findings strongly favored IPS, with large effect sizes across all outcomes: 0.96 for job acquisition, 0.79 for total weeks worked, and 0.74 for job tenure. Overall, 90 (77%) of the 117 effect sizes calculated for the 39 subgroups exceeded 0.70, and all 117 favored IPS. Conclusions: IPS produces better competitive employment outcomes for persons with SMI than alternative vocational programs regardless of background demographic, clinical, and employment characteristics. PMID:19661196
On-Orbit System Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mettler, E.; Milman, M. H.; Bayard, D.; Eldred, D. B.

1987-01-01

Information derived from accelerometer readings benefits important engineering and control functions. Report discusses methodology for detection, identification, and analysis of motions within space station. Techniques of vibration and rotation analyses, control theory, statistics, filter theory, and transform methods integrated to form system for generating models and model parameters that characterize total motion of complicated space station, with respect to both control-induced and random mechanical disturbances.
Quantifying recreation use values from removing dams and restoring free-flowing rivers: A contingent behavior travel cost demand model for the Lower Snake River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, John

2002-06-01

A travel cost demand model that uses intended trips if dams are removed and the river restored is presented as a tool for evaluating the potential recreation benefits in this counterfactual but increasingly policy relevant analysis of dam removal. The model is applied to the Lower Snake River in Washington using data from mail surveys of households in the Pacific Northwest region. Five years after dam removal, about 1.5 million visitor days are estimated, with this number growing to 2.5 million annually during years 20-100. Using the travel cost method model estimate of the value of river recreation, if the four dams are removed and the 225 km river is restored, the annualized benefits at a 6.875% discount rate would be $310 million. This gain in river recreation exceeds the loss of reservoir recreation but is about $60 million less than the total costs of the dam removal alternative. The analysis suggests this extension of the standard travel cost method may be suitable for evaluating the gain in river recreation associated with restoration of river systems from dam removal or associated with dam relicensing conditions.
Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gafurov, Andrey; Skotarenko, Oksana; Plotnikov, Vladimir

2018-03-01

The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the "Project analysis scenario" flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.
Risk-cost-benefit analysis of atrazine in drinking water from agricultural activities and policy implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfamichael, Aklilu A.; Caplan, Arthur J.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2005-05-01

This study provides an improved methodology for investigating the trade-offs between the health risks and economic benefits of using atrazine in the agricultural sector by incorporating public attitude to pesticide management in the analysis. Regression models are developed to predict finished water atrazine concentration in high-risk community water supplies in the United States. The predicted finished water atrazine concentrations are then used in a health risk assessment. The computed health risks are compared with the total economic surplus in the U.S. corn market for different atrazine application rates using estimated demand and supply functions developed in this work. Analysis of different scenarios with consumer price premiums for chemical-free and reduced-chemical corn indicate that if the society is willing to pay a price premium, risks can be reduced without a large reduction in the total economic surplus and net benefits may be higher. The results also show that this methodology provides an improved scientific framework for future decision making and policy evaluation in pesticide management.
Assessing task-technology fit in a PACS upgrade: do users' and developers' appraisals converge?

PubMed

Lepanto, Luigi; Sicotte, Claude; Lehoux, Pascale

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to measure users' perceived benefits of a picture archiving and communication system (PACS) upgrade, and compare their responses to those predicted by developers. The Task-Technology Fit (TTF) model served as the theoretical framework to study the relation between TTF, utilization, and perceived benefits. A self-administered survey was distributed to radiologists working in a university hospital undergoing a PACS upgrade. Four variables were measured: impact, utilization, TTF, and perceived net benefits. The radiologists were divided into subgroups according to their utilization profiles. Analysis of variance was performed and the hypotheses were tested with regression analysis. Interviews were conducted with developers involved in the PACS upgrade who were asked to predict impact and TTF. Users identified only a moderate fit between the PACS enhancements and their tasks, while developers predicted a high level of TTF. The combination of a moderate fit and an underestimation of the potential impact of changes in the PACS led to a low score for perceived net benefits. Results varied significantly among user subgroups. Globally, the data support the hypotheses that TTF predicts utilization and perceived net benefits, but not that utilization predicts perceived net benefits. TTF is a valid tool to assess perceived benefits, but it is important to take into account the characteristics of users. In the context of a technology that is rapidly evolving, there needs to be an alignment of what users perceive as a good fit and the functionality developers incorporate into their products.
A mixed-unit input-output model for environmental life-cycle assessment and material flow analysis.

PubMed

Hawkins, Troy; Hendrickson, Chris; Higgins, Cortney; Matthews, H Scott; Suh, Sangwon

2007-02-01

Materials flow analysis models have traditionally been used to track the production, use, and consumption of materials. Economic input-output modeling has been used for environmental systems analysis, with a primary benefit being the capability to estimate direct and indirect economic and environmental impacts across the entire supply chain of production in an economy. We combine these two types of models to create a mixed-unit input-output model that is able to bettertrack economic transactions and material flows throughout the economy associated with changes in production. A 13 by 13 economic input-output direct requirements matrix developed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is augmented with material flow data derived from those published by the U.S. Geological Survey in the formulation of illustrative mixed-unit input-output models for lead and cadmium. The resulting model provides the capabilities of both material flow and input-output models, with detailed material tracking through entire supply chains in response to any monetary or material demand. Examples of these models are provided along with a discussion of uncertainty and extensions to these models.
A cost-benefit analysis of preventative management for zebra and quagga mussels in the Colorado-Big Thompson System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Catherine M.

2010-01-01

Zebra and quagga mussels are fresh water invaders that have the potential to cause severe ecological and economic damage. It is estimated that mussels cause $1 billion dollars per year in damages to water infrastructure and industries in the United States (Pimentel et al., 2004). Following their introduction to the Great Lakes in the late 1980s, mussels spread rapidly throughout the Mississippi River Basin and the Eastern U.S. The mussel invasion in the West is young. Mussels were first identified in Nevada in 2007, and have since been identified in California, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Texas. Western water systems are very different from those found in the East. The rapid spread of mussels through the eastern system was facilitated by connected and navigable waterways. Western water systems are less connected and are characterized by man-made reservoirs and canals. The main vector of spread for mussels in the West is overland on recreational boats (Bossenbroek et al., 2001). In response to the invasion, many western water managers have implemented preventative management programs to slow the overland spread of mussels on recreational boats. In Colorado, the Colorado Department of Wildlife (CDOW) has implemented a mandatory boat inspection program that requires all trailered boats to be inspected before launching in any Colorado water body. The objective of this study is to analyze the costs and benefits of the CDOW boat inspection program in Colorado, and to identify variables that affect the net benefits of preventative management. Predicting the potential economic benefits of slowing the spread of mussels requires integrating information about mussel dispersal potential with estimates of control costs (Keller et al., 2009). Uncertainty surrounding the probabilities of establishment, the timing of invasions, and the damage costs associated with an invasion make a simulation model an excellent tool for addressing "what if" scenarios and shedding light on the net benefits of preventative management strategies. This study builds a bioeconomic simulation model to predict and compare the expected economic costs of the CDOW boat inspection program ot the benefits of reduced expected control costs to water conveyance systems, hydropower generation stations, and minicipal water treatment facilities. The model is based on a case study water delivery and storage system, the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The Colorado-Big Thomspon system is an excellent example of water systems in the Rocky Mountain West. The system is nearly entirely man-made, with all of its reservoirs and delivery points connected via pipelines, tunnels, and canals. The structures and hydropower systems of the Colorado-Big Thompson system are common to other western storage and delivery systems, making the methods and insight developed from this case study transferal to other western systems. The model developed in this study contributes to the bioeconomic literature in several ways. Foremost, the model predicts the spread of dreissena mussels and associated damage costs for a connected water system in the Rocky Mountain West. Very few zebra mussel studies have focused on western water systems. Another distinguishing factor is the simultaneous consideration of spread from propagules introduced by boats and by flows. Most zebra mussel dispersal models consider boater movement patterns combined with limnological characteristics as predictors of spread. A separate set of studies have addressed mussel spread via downstream flows. To the author's knowledge, this is the first study that builds a zebra mussel spread model that specifically accounts for propagule pressure from boat introductions and from downstream flow introductions. By modeling an entire connected system, the study highlights how the spatial layout of a system, and the risk of invasion within a system affect the benefits of preventative management. This report is presented in five chapters. The first chapter provides background information including a history of the zebra mussel invasion in the U.S. and in the West, and details about the Colorado preventative management program and the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The chapter also includes a literature review of mussel dispersal models and economic studies that address control costs and preventative management for aquatic invasive species. Chapter 2 presents the methodological approach used to analyze the costs and benefits of preventative management in the Colorado-Big Thompson system and provides details of the bioeconomic simulation model used to predict invasion patterns and the net benefits of preventative management. Results of the analysis and sensitivity testing of model parameters are presented in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 provides a summary of the analysis and conclusions. A discussion of the limitations of the model and areas for future research is presented in Chapter 5.
[Application of decision curve on evaluation of MRI predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer].

PubMed

He, Y J; Li, X T; Fan, Z Q; Li, Y L; Cao, K; Sun, Y S; Ouyang, T

2018-01-23

Objective: To construct a dynamic enhanced MR based predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer, and to evaluate the clinical benefit of the model by using decision curve. Methods: From December 2005 to December 2007, 170 patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy were identified and their MR images before neoadjuvant therapy and at the end of the first cycle of neoadjuvant therapy were collected. Logistic regression model was used to detect independent factors for predicting pCR and construct the predictive model accordingly, then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive model. Results: ΔArea(max) and Δslope(max) were independent predictive factors for pCR, OR =0.942 (95% CI : 0.918-0.967) and 0.961 (95% CI : 0.940-0.987), respectively. The area under ROC curve (AUC) for the constructed model was 0.886 (95% CI : 0.820-0.951). Decision curve showed that in the range of the threshold probability above 0.4, the predictive model presented increased net benefit as the threshold probability increased. Conclusions: The constructed predictive model for pCR is of potential clinical value, with an AUC>0.85. Meanwhile, decision curve analysis indicates the constructed predictive model has net benefit from 3 to 8 percent in the likely range of probability threshold from 80% to 90%.
A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

48 CFR 570.402-6 - Cost-benefit analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Cost-benefit analysis. 570.402-6 Section 570.402-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION SPECIAL... Continued Space Requirements 570.402-6 Cost-benefit analysis. (a) The cost-benefit analysis must consider...
48 CFR 570.402-6 - Cost-benefit analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Cost-benefit analysis. 570.402-6 Section 570.402-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION SPECIAL... Continued Space Requirements 570.402-6 Cost-benefit analysis. (a) The cost-benefit analysis must consider...
Cost benefit analysis: applications and future opportunities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA or Benefit Cost Analysis BCA) is an evaluation tool that state transportation agencies can : use to compare infrastructure project options across transportation modes and gauge if the discounted value of benefits : exce...
Documentation of the analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology models, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bobick, J. C.; Braun, R. L.; Denny, R. E.

1979-01-01

The analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology (ABC-ART) models are documented. These models were developed by NASA for use in analyzing the economic feasibility of applying advanced aeronautical technology to future civil aircraft. The methodology is composed of three major modules: fleet accounting module, airframe manufacturing module, and air carrier module. The fleet accounting module is used to estimate the number of new aircraft required as a function of time to meet demand. This estimation is based primarily upon the expected retirement age of existing aircraft and the expected change in revenue passenger miles demanded. Fuel consumption estimates are also generated by this module. The airframe manufacturer module is used to analyze the feasibility of the manufacturing the new aircraft demanded. The module includes logic for production scheduling and estimating manufacturing costs. For a series of aircraft selling prices, a cash flow analysis is performed and a rate of return on investment is calculated. The air carrier module provides a tool for analyzing the financial feasibility of an airline purchasing and operating the new aircraft. This module includes a methodology for computing the air carrier direct and indirect operating costs, performing a cash flow analysis, and estimating the internal rate of return on investment for a set of aircraft purchase prices.
Composite Structure Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Aircraft Fuselage Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek; Sorokach, Michael R.

2015-01-01

NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project and the Boeing Company are collabrating to advance the unitized damage arresting composite airframe technology with application to the Hybrid-Wing-Body (HWB) aircraft. The testing of a HWB fuselage section with Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) construction is presently being conducted at NASA Langley. Based on lessons learned from previous HWB structural design studies, improved finite-element models (FEM) of the HWB multi-bay and bulkhead assembly are developed to evaluate the performance of the PRSEUS construction. In order to assess the comparative weight reduction benefits of the PRSEUS technology, conventional cylindrical skin-stringer-frame models of a cylindrical and a double-bubble section fuselage concepts are developed. Stress analysis with design cabin-pressure load and scenario based case studies are conducted for design improvement in each case. Alternate analysis with stitched composite hat-stringers and C-frames are also presented, in addition to the foam-core sandwich frame and pultruded rod-stringer construction. The FEM structural stress, strain and weights are computed and compared for relative weight/strength benefit assessment. The structural analysis and specific weight comparison of these stitched composite advanced aircraft fuselage concepts demonstrated that the pressurized HWB fuselage section assembly can be structurally as efficient as the conventional cylindrical fuselage section with composite stringer-frame and PRSEUS construction, and significantly better than the conventional aluminum construction and the double-bubble section concept.
Alternative methods to determine headwater benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bao, Y.S.; Perlack, R.D.; Sale, M.J.

1997-11-10

In 1992, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) began using a Flow Duration Analysis (FDA) methodology to assess headwater benefits in river basins where use of the Headwater Benefits Energy Gains (HWBEG) model may not result in significant improvements in modeling accuracy. The purpose of this study is to validate the accuracy and appropriateness of the FDA method for determining energy gains in less complex basins. This report presents the results of Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL`s) validation of the FDA method. The validation is based on a comparison of energy gains using the FDA method with energy gains calculatedmore » using the MWBEG model. Comparisons of energy gains are made on a daily and monthly basis for a complex river basin (the Alabama River Basin) and a basin that is considered relatively simple hydrologically (the Stanislaus River Basin). In addition to validating the FDA method, ORNL was asked to suggest refinements and improvements to the FDA method. Refinements and improvements to the FDA method were carried out using the James River Basin as a test case.« less
Benefits and risks of shared services in healthcare.

PubMed

Kennewell, Suzanne; Baker, Laura

2016-05-16

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the experiences of staff in a large, public health service involved in transitioning support services to a shared services model. It aims to understand their perceptions of the benefits and risks arising from this change. Design/methodology/approach - Thematic analysis of qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with both service provider and customer agency staff was used to identify, analyze and report patterns of benefits and risks within data. Findings - Staff expressed the need for relevant subject-matter-experts to work within customer agencies to facilitate effective communication between the customer agency and shared services provider, reflecting observations found in out-sourcing literature. Research limitations/implications - Results point to significant challenges continuing to occur for shared services in healthcare. Risks identified suggest a more intimate relationship between clinical and support services than previously discussed. Originality/value - Previous discussion of the shared services model has not considered the skills, knowledge and ability required by staff in the customer agency. This research indicates that in the absence of such consideration, the concepts of the shared services model are weakened.
Cost-benefit analysis as a part of sustainability assessment of remediation alternatives for contaminated land.

PubMed

Söderqvist, Tore; Brinkhoff, Petra; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars; Back, Pär-Erik; Norrman, Jenny

2015-07-01

There is an increasing demand amongst decision-makers and stakeholders for identifying sustainable remediation alternatives at contaminated sites, taking into account that remediation typically results in both positive and negative consequences. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is increasingly used for sustainability appraisal, and the Excel-based MCA tool Sustainable Choice Of REmediation (SCORE) has been developed to provide a relevant and transparent assessment of the sustainability of remediation alternatives relative to a reference alternative, considering key criteria in the economic, environmental and social sustainability domains, and taking uncertainty into explicit account through simulation. The focus of this paper is the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a part of SCORE for assessing the economic sustainability of remediation alternatives. An economic model is used for deriving a cost-benefit rule, which in turn motivates cost and benefit items in a CBA of remediation alternatives. The empirical part of the paper is a CBA application on remediation alternatives for the Hexion site, a former chemical industry area close to the city of Göteborg in SW Sweden. The impact of uncertainties in and correlations across benefit and cost items on CBA results is illustrated. For the Hexion site, the traditional excavation-and-disposal remediation alternative had the lowest expected net present value, which illustrates the importance of also considering other alternatives before deciding upon how a remediation should be carried out. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
24 CFR 965.402 - Benefit/cost analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Benefit/cost analysis. 965.402...-Owned Projects § 965.402 Benefit/cost analysis. (a) A benefit/cost analysis shall be made to determine... (Continued) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AND INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN...
Multidimensional student skills with collaborative filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergner, Yoav; Rayyan, Saif; Seaton, Daniel; Pritchard, David E.

2013-01-01

Despite the fact that a physics course typically culminates in one final grade for the student, many instructors and researchers believe that there are multiple skills that students acquire to achieve mastery. Assessment validation and data analysis in general may thus benefit from extension to multidimensional ability. This paper introduces an approach for model determination and dimensionality analysis using collaborative filtering (CF), which is related to factor analysis and item response theory (IRT). Model selection is guided by machine learning perspectives, seeking to maximize the accuracy in predicting which students will answer which items correctly. We apply the CF to response data for the Mechanics Baseline Test and combine the results with prior analysis using unidimensional IRT.
Cost-benefit analysis of establishing and operating radiation oncology services in Fiji.

PubMed

Kim, Eunkyoung; Cho, Yoon-Min; Kwon, Soonman; Park, Kunhee

2017-10-01

Rising demand for services of cancer patients has been recognised by the Government of Fiji as a national health priority. Increasing attention has been paid to the lack of service of radiation therapy or radiotherapy in Fiji. This study aims to estimate and compare the costs and benefits of introducing radiation oncology services in Fiji from the societal perspective. Time horizon for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was 15 years from 2021 to 2035. The benefits and costs were converted to the present values of 2016. Estimates for the CBA model were taken from previous studies and expert opinions and data obtained from field visits to Fiji in January 2016. Sensitivity analyses with changing assumptions were undertaken. The estimated net benefit, applying the national minimum wage (NMW) to measure monetary value for life-year gained, was -31,624,421 FJD with 0.69 of benefit-cost (B/C) ratio. If gross national income (GNI) per capita was used for the value of life years, net benefit was 3,975,684 FJD (B/C ratio: 1.04). With a pessimistic scenario, establishing the center appeared to be not cost-beneficial, and the net benefit was -53,634,682 FJD (B/C ratio: 0.46); net benefit with an optimistic scenario was estimated 23,178,189 FJD (B/C ratio: 1.20). Based on the CBA results from using GNI per capita instead of the NMW, this project would be cost-beneficial. Introducing a radiation oncology center in Fiji would have potential impacts on financial sustainability, financial protection, and accessibility and equity of the health system. Copyright © 2017 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Commercial Discount Rate Estimation for Efficiency Standards Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujita, K. Sydny

2016-04-13

Underlying each of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) federal appliance and equipment standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). A proposed standard is considered economically justified when its benefits exceed its burdens, as represented by the projected net present value of costs and benefits. DOE performs multiple analyses to evaluate the balance of costs and benefits of commercial appliance and equipment e efficiency standards, at themore » national and individual building or business level, each framed to capture different nuances of the complex impact of standards on the commercial end user population. The Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels.1 Thus, the choice of commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the Life-Cycle Cost model implicitly plays a key role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels.2 This report is intended to provide a more in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process than can be readily included in standard rulemaking Technical Support Documents (TSDs).« less
The relationship between blood pressure and the structures of Pender's health promotion model in rural hypertensive patients.

PubMed

Kamran, Aziz; Azadbakht, Leila; Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Mahaki, Behzad; Mohebi, Siamak

2015-01-01

Perception is the most important predictor of behavior and there is a strong relation and correlation between behavior and believes. Thus, to improve self-care behaviors of patients, it is required to fully understand their perceptions about behavior. This paper aimed to assess the prediction power of health promotion model of systolic blood pressure (SBP) as the result of self-care behavior in rural hypertensive. This cross-sectional study has been carried out through random multistage sampling on 671 rural patients under the coverage of health center of Ardebil city in 2013. Data were collected through reliable and valid questionnaire based on the health promotion model in eight sectors. For data analysis, Pearson correlation statistical tests, multivariate linear regression, ANOVA and independent t-test were used and for confirmatory factor analysis, SPSS 18 and AMOS 18 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) were used. The results showed significant negative correlation between self-efficacy, perceived benefits, situational influences, affects related to behavior and commitment to action structures with SBP and showed a positive significant correlation between perceived barriers and SBP. Furthermore, age and body mass had direct significant relation with SBP. The age of patients showed inverse significant correlation with self-efficacy, perceived benefits, affects related to behavior, interpersonal influences and commitment and showed a direct significant correlation with perceived barriers, means that by increase of age, the perceived barriers also increased. The structures of health promotion model have in overall the prediction power of 71.4% of SBP changes. The diet perceptions of patients, the same as health promotion model, has good predictive power of SBP, especially the structures of perceived benefits and self-efficacy have inverse meaningful relation with systole blood pressure and predicted a higher percentage of this variable.
Computational Investigation of a Boundary-Layer Ingesting Propulsion System for the Common Research Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blumenthal, Brennan T.; Elmiligui, Alaa; Geiselhart, Karl A.; Campbell, Richard L.; Maughmer, Mark D.; Schmitz, Sven

2016-01-01

The present paper examines potential propulsive and aerodynamic benefits of integrating a Boundary-Layer Ingestion (BLI) propulsion system into a typical commercial aircraft using the Common Research Model (CRM) geometry and the NASA Tetrahedral Unstructured Software System (TetrUSS). The Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) environment is used to generate engine conditions for CFD analysis. Improvements to the BLI geometry are made using the Constrained Direct Iterative Surface Curvature (CDISC) design method. Previous studies have shown reductions of up to 25% in terms of propulsive power required for cruise for other axisymmetric geometries using the BLI concept. An analysis of engine power requirements, drag, and lift coefficients using the baseline and BLI geometries coupled with the NPSS model are shown. Potential benefits of the BLI system relating to cruise propulsive power are quantified using a power balance method, and a comparison to the baseline case is made. Iterations of the BLI geometric design are shown and any improvements between subsequent BLI designs presented. Simulations are conducted for a cruise flight condition of Mach 0.85 at an altitude of 38,500 feet and an angle of attack of 2 deg for all geometries. A comparison between available wind tunnel data, previous computational results, and the original CRM model is presented for model verification purposes along with full results for BLI power savings. Results indicate a 14.4% reduction in engine power requirements at cruise for the BLI configuration over the baseline geometry. Minor shaping of the aft portion of the fuselage using CDISC has been shown to increase the benefit from Boundary-Layer Ingestion further, resulting in a 15.6% reduction in power requirements for cruise as well as a drag reduction of eighteen counts over the baseline geometry.
Computational Investigation of a Boundary-Layer Ingestion Propulsion System for the Common Research Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blumenthal, Brennan

2016-01-01

This thesis will examine potential propulsive and aerodynamic benefits of integrating a boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) propulsion system with a typical commercial aircraft using the Common Research Model geometry and the NASA Tetrahedral Unstructured Software System (TetrUSS). The Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) environment will be used to generate engine conditions for CFD analysis. Improvements to the BLI geometry will be made using the Constrained Direct Iterative Surface Curvature (CDISC) design method. Previous studies have shown reductions of up to 25% in terms of propulsive power required for cruise for other axisymmetric geometries using the BLI concept. An analysis of engine power requirements, drag, and lift coefficients using the baseline and BLI geometries coupled with the NPSS model are shown. Potential benefits of the BLI system relating to cruise propulsive power are quantified using a power balance method and a comparison to the baseline case is made. Iterations of the BLI geometric design are shown and any improvements between subsequent BLI designs presented. Simulations are conducted for a cruise flight condition of Mach 0.85 at an altitude of 38,500 feet and an angle of attack of 2deg for all geometries. A comparison between available wind tunnel data, previous computational results, and the original CRM model is presented for model verification purposes along with full results for BLI power savings. Results indicate a 14.3% reduction in engine power requirements at cruise for the BLI configuration over the baseline geometry. Minor shaping of the aft portion of the fuselage using CDISC has been shown to increase the benefit from boundary-layer ingestion further, resulting in a 15.6% reduction in power requirements for cruise as well as a drag reduction of eighteen counts over the baseline geometry.
Approaching the evolutionary advantage of ancillary types of haemoglobin in Daphnia magna by simulation of oxygen supply.

PubMed

Moenickes, S; Richter, O; Pirow, R

2010-02-01

The planktonic crustacean Daphnia magna synthesizes haemoglobin (Hb) macromolecules of variant subunit composition and oxygen affinity. This is one of the strategies by which the animals cope with variations in environmental conditions such as ambient oxygen tension. The enrichment of high-affinity Hb molecules in the haemolymph of hypoxia-exposed animals is thought to reduce Hb synthesis costs due to an enhanced transport efficiency of these molecules in comparison to the low-affinity Hb molecules. How great this economic advantage is, and under which conditions this benefit disappears, is still not fully understood. Here we implemented a rigorously simplified model of the daphnid body and described the transport of oxygen from the environment via the haemolymph to the tissues in terms of the convection-diffusion-reaction equation. The model was validated by comparing various model predictions with experimental data. A sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainties on the model predictions. Cost-benefit analysis revealed in which way at the system's level the increase in Hb oxygen affinity improves the oxygen loading at the respiratory surfaces and impairs the release of oxygen to the tissues. The benefit arising from the improved oxygen loading exceeds the disadvantage of impaired unloading only under conditions where the ambient oxygen tension is critically low and the Hb concentration is high. The low-affinity Hb, on the other hand, provides an advantage given that the Hb concentration is low and the ambient oxygen tension is well above the critical level. Computer-aided modelling and simulation therefore provide valuable mechanistic insights into the driving forces that could have shaped the evolution of globin genes in daphnids.
Application of enhanced modern structured analysis techniques to Space Station Freedom electric power system requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biernacki, John; Juhasz, John; Sadler, Gerald

1991-01-01

A team of Space Station Freedom (SSF) system engineers are in the process of extensive analysis of the SSF requirements, particularly those pertaining to the electrical power system (EPS). The objective of this analysis is the development of a comprehensive, computer-based requirements model, using an enhanced modern structured analysis methodology (EMSA). Such a model provides a detailed and consistent representation of the system's requirements. The process outlined in the EMSA methodology is unique in that it allows the graphical modeling of real-time system state transitions, as well as functional requirements and data relationships, to be implemented using modern computer-based tools. These tools permit flexible updating and continuous maintenance of the models. Initial findings resulting from the application of EMSA to the EPS have benefited the space station program by linking requirements to design, providing traceability of requirements, identifying discrepancies, and fostering an understanding of the EPS.
Cost-effectiveness of hysteroscopy screening for infertile women.

PubMed

Kasius, Jenneke C; Eijkemans, René J C; Mol, Ben W J; Fauser, Bart C J M; Fatemi, Human M; Broekmans, Frank J M

2013-06-01

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of office hysteroscopy screening prior to IVF. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of two distinct strategies - hysteroscopy after two failed IVF cycles (Failedhyst) and routine hysteroscopy prior to IVF (Routinehyst) - was compared with the reference strategy of no hysteroscopy (Nohyst). When present, intrauterine pathology was treated during hysteroscopy. Two models were constructed and evaluated in a decision analysis. In model I, all patients had an increase in pregnancy rate after screening hysteroscopy prior to IVF; in model II, only patients with intrauterine pathology would benefit. For each strategy, the total costs and live birth rates after a total of three IVF cycles were assessed. For model I (all patients benefit from hysteroscopy), Routinehyst was always cost-effective compared with Nohyst or Failedhyst. For the Routinehyst strategy, a monetary profit would be obtained in the case where hysteroscopy would increase the live birth rate after IVF by ≥ 2.8%. In model II (only patients with pathology benefit from hysteroscopy), Routinehyst also dominated Failedhyst. However, hysteroscopy performance resulted in considerable costs. In conclusion, the application of a routine hysteroscopy prior to IVF could be cost-effective. However, randomized trials confirming the effectiveness of hysteroscopy are needed. Copyright © 2013 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cooperation, Technology, and Performance: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cavanagh, Thomas; Dickenson, Sabrina; Brandt, Suzanne

1999-01-01

Describes the CTP (Cooperation, Technology, and Performance) model and explains how it is used by the Department of Veterans Affairs-Veteran's Benefit Administration (VBA) for training. Discusses task analysis; computer-based training; cooperative-based learning environments; technology-based learning; performance-assessment methods; courseware…
Analysis of collision safety associated with CEM and conventional cars mixed within a consist

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-11-16

collision dynamics model of a passenger train-to-passenger train collision has been developed to simulate the potential safety hazards and benefits associated with mixing conventional and crash energy management (CEM) cars within a consist. This pape...

Assessing the economic benefits of vaccines based on the health investment life course framework: a review of a broader approach to evaluate malaria vaccination.

PubMed

Constenla, Dagna

2015-03-24

Economic evaluations have routinely understated the net benefits of vaccination by not including the full range of economic benefits that accrue over the lifetime of a vaccinated person. Broader approaches for evaluating benefits of vaccination can be used to more accurately calculate the value of vaccination. This paper reflects on the methodology of one such approach - the health investment life course approach - that looks at the impact of vaccine investment on lifetime returns. The role of this approach on vaccine decision-making will be assessed using the malaria health investment life course model example. We describe a framework that measures the impact of a health policy decision on government accounts over many generations. The methodological issues emerging from this approach are illustrated with an example from a recently completed health investment life course analysis of malaria vaccination in Ghana. Beyond the results, various conceptual and practical challenges of applying this framework to Ghana are discussed in this paper. The current framework seeks to understand how disease and available technologies can impact a range of economic parameters such as labour force participation, education, healthcare consumption, productivity, wages or economic growth, and taxation following their introduction. The framework is unique amongst previous economic models in malaria because it considers future tax revenue for governments. The framework is complementary to cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis. The intent of this paper is to stimulate discussion on how existing and new methodology can add to knowledge regarding the benefits from investing in new and underutilized vaccines. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

2014-09-01

Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Gradient-based model calibration with proxy-model assistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrows, Wesley; Doherty, John

2016-02-01

Use of a proxy model in gradient-based calibration and uncertainty analysis of a complex groundwater model with large run times and problematic numerical behaviour is described. The methodology is general, and can be used with models of all types. The proxy model is based on a series of analytical functions that link all model outputs used in the calibration process to all parameters requiring estimation. In enforcing history-matching constraints during the calibration and post-calibration uncertainty analysis processes, the proxy model is run for the purposes of populating the Jacobian matrix, while the original model is run when testing parameter upgrades; the latter process is readily parallelized. Use of a proxy model in this fashion dramatically reduces the computational burden of complex model calibration and uncertainty analysis. At the same time, the effect of model numerical misbehaviour on calculation of local gradients is mitigated, this allowing access to the benefits of gradient-based analysis where lack of integrity in finite-difference derivatives calculation would otherwise have impeded such access. Construction of a proxy model, and its subsequent use in calibration of a complex model, and in analysing the uncertainties of predictions made by that model, is implemented in the PEST suite.
Ecosystem Services and Environmental Markets in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report contains two separate analyses, both of which make use of an optimization framework previously developed to evaluate trade-offs in alternative restoration strategies to achieve the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). The first analysis expands on model applications that examine how incorporating selected co-benefits of nutrient reductions into the optimization framework alters the optimal distribution of nutrient reductions in the watershed (U.S. EPA, 2011). In previous applications, the analyzed co-benefits included carbon sequestration and recreational hunting benefits from certain agricultural best management practices (BMPs). In this report we expand the optimization framework to also include benefits from water quality improvements in freshwater river and streams. We find that these nontidal water quality co-benefits are larger than the other co-benefits combined and would result in greater nutrient control efforts in upstream portions of the watershed. Compared to cost-minimization results that do not account for co-benefits, including all co-benefits in the optimization would increase annual nutrient control costs by $16 million in the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania; however, the co-benefits would increase by $31 million, for a net gain of $15 million per year. In the James River Basin in Virginia, considering monetized co-benefits results in an estimated increase in nutrient control costs of $17 million but an increase in
Assessing the effects of regional payment for watershed services program on water quality using an intervention analysis model.

PubMed

Lu, Yan; He, Tian

2014-09-15

Much attention has been recently paid to ex-post assessments of socioeconomic and environmental benefits of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs on poverty reduction, water quality, and forest protection. To evaluate the effects of a regional PES program on water quality, we selected chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) as indicators of water quality. Statistical methods and an intervention analysis model were employed to assess whether the PES program produced substantial changes in water quality at 10 water-quality sampling stations in the Shaying River watershed, China during 2006-2011. Statistical results from paired-sample t-tests and box plots of COD and NH3-N concentrations at the 10 stations showed that the PES program has played a positive role in improving water quality and reducing trans-boundary water pollution in the Shaying River watershed. Using the intervention analysis model, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of the intervention policy, i.e., the watershed PES program, on water quality at the 10 stations. The results suggest that this method could be used to assess the environmental benefits of watershed or water-related PES programs, such as improvements in water quality, seasonal flow regulation, erosion and sedimentation, and aquatic habitat. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Use of evidence to support healthy public policy: a policy effectiveness–feasibility loop

PubMed Central

Bowman, Sarah; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; Husseini, Abdullatif; Maziak, Wasim; Zaman, Shahaduz; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Fouad, Fouad; Phillimore, Peter; Unal, Belgin; Khatib, Rana; Shoaibi, Azza; Ahmad, Balsam

2012-01-01

Abstract Public policy plays a key role in improving population health and in the control of diseases, including non-communicable diseases. However, an evidence-based approach to formulating healthy public policy has been difficult to implement, partly on account of barriers that hinder integrated work between researchers and policy-makers. This paper describes a “policy effectiveness–feasibility loop” (PEFL) that brings together epidemiological modelling, local situation analysis and option appraisal to foster collaboration between researchers and policy-makers. Epidemiological modelling explores the determinants of trends in disease and the potential health benefits of modifying them. Situation analysis investigates the current conceptualization of policy, the level of policy awareness and commitment among key stakeholders, and what actually happens in practice, thereby helping to identify policy gaps. Option appraisal integrates epidemiological modelling and situation analysis to investigate the feasibility, costs and likely health benefits of various policy options. The authors illustrate how PEFL was used in a project to inform public policy for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in four parts of the eastern Mediterranean. They conclude that PEFL may offer a useful framework for researchers and policy-makers to successfully work together to generate evidence-based policy, and they encourage further evaluation of this approach. PMID:23226897
Urban Land Cover Mapping Accuracy Assessment - A Cost-benefit Analysis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, T.

2012-12-01

One of the most important components in urban land cover mapping is mapping accuracy assessment. Many statistical models have been developed to help design simple schemes based on both accuracy and confidence levels. It is intuitive that an increased number of samples increases the accuracy as well as the cost of an assessment. Understanding cost and sampling size is crucial in implementing efficient and effective of field data collection. Few studies have included a cost calculation component as part of the assessment. In this study, a cost-benefit sampling analysis model was created by combining sample size design and sampling cost calculation. The sampling cost included transportation cost, field data collection cost, and laboratory data analysis cost. Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Modified Systematic Sampling (MSS) methods were used to design sample locations and to extract land cover data in ArcGIS. High resolution land cover data layers of Denver, CO and Sacramento, CA, street networks, and parcel GIS data layers were used in this study to test and verify the model. The relationship between the cost and accuracy was used to determine the effectiveness of each sample method. The results of this study can be applied to other environmental studies that require spatial sampling.
Status of risk-benefit analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Horn, A.J.; Wilson, R.

1976-12-01

The benefits and deficiencies of cost benefit analysis are reviewed. It is pointed out that, if decision making involving risks and benefits is to improve, more attention must be paid to the clear presentation of the assumptions, values, and results. Reports need to present concise summaries which convey the uncertainties and limitations of the analysis in addition to the matrix of costs, risks, and benefits. As the field of risk-benefit analysis advances the estimation of risks and benefits will become more precise and implicit valuations will be made more explicit. Corresponding improvements must also be made to enhance communications betweenmore » the risk-benefit analyst and the accountable decision maker.« less
Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

PubMed

Markandya, Anil; Sampedro, Jon; Smith, Steven J; Van Dingenen, Rita; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina; Arto, Iñaki; González-Eguino, Mikel

2018-03-01

Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries in accordance with three established equity criteria. Our study had three stages. First, we used an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the emission (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) pathways and abatement costs of a set of scenarios with varying temperature objectives (nationally determined contributions, 2°C, or 1·5°C) and approaches to the distribution of climate change methods (capability, constant emission ratios, and equal per capita). The resulting emissions pathways were transferred to an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to estimate the concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the atmosphere and the resulting associated premature deaths and morbidity. We then applied a monetary value to these health impacts by use of a term called the value of statistical life and compared these values with those of the mitigation costs calculated from GCAM, both globally and regionally. Our analysis looked forward to 2050 in accordance with the socioeconomic narrative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. The health co-benefits substantially outweighed the policy cost of achieving the target for all of the scenarios that we analysed. In some of the mitigation strategies, the median co-benefits were double the median costs at a global level. The ratio of health co-benefit to mitigation cost ranged from 1·4 to 2·45, depending on the scenario. At the regional level, the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions could be compensated with the health co-benefits alone for China and India, whereas the proportion the co-benefits covered varied but could be substantial in the European Union (7-84%) and USA (10-41%), respectively. Finally, we found that the extra effort of trying to pursue the 1·5°C target instead of the 2°C target would generate a substantial net benefit in India (US$3·28-8·4 trillion) and China ($0·27-2·31 trillion), although this positive result was not seen in the other regions. Substantial health gains can be achieved from taking action to prevent climate change, independent of any future reductions in damages due to climate change. Some countries, such as China and India, could justify stringent mitigation efforts just by including health co-benefits in the analysis. Our results also suggest that the statement in the Paris Agreement to pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1·5°C could make economic sense in some scenarios and countries if health co-benefits are taken into account. European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Cost-effectiveness of a community-based physical activity programme for adults (Be Active) in the UK: an economic analysis within a natural experiment.

PubMed

Frew, Emma J; Bhatti, Mobeen; Win, Khine; Sitch, Alice; Lyon, Anna; Pallan, Miranda; Adab, Peymane

2014-02-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of a physical activity programme (Be Active) aimed at city-dwelling adults living in Birmingham, UK. Very little is known about the cost-effectiveness of public health programmes to improve city-wide physical activity rates. This paper presents a cost-effectiveness analysis that compares a physical activity intervention (Be Active) with no intervention (usual care) using an economic model to quantify the reduction in disease risk over a lifetime. Metabolic equivalent minutes achieved per week, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and healthcare costs were all included as the main outcome measures in the model. A cost-benefit analysis was also conducted using 'willingness-to-pay' as a measure of value. Under base-case assumptions-that is, assuming that the benefits of increased physical activity are sustained over 5 years, participation in the Be Active programme increased quality-adjusted life expectancy by 0.06 years, at an expected discounted cost of £3552, and thus the cost-effectiveness of Be Active is £400 per QALY. When the start-up costs of the programme are removed from the economic model, the cost-effectiveness is further improved to £16 per QALY. The societal value placed on the Be Active programme was greater than the operation cost therefore the Be Active physical activity intervention results in a net benefit to society. Participation in Be Active appeared to be cost-effective and cost-beneficial. These results support the use of Be Active as part of a public health programme to improve physical activity levels within the Birmingham-wide population.
Human performance cognitive-behavioral modeling: a benefit for occupational safety.

PubMed

Gore, Brian F

2002-01-01

Human Performance Modeling (HPM) is a computer-aided job analysis software methodology used to generate predictions of complex human-automation integration and system flow patterns with the goal of improving operator and system safety. The use of HPM tools has recently been increasing due to reductions in computational cost, augmentations in the tools' fidelity, and usefulness in the generated output. An examination of an Air Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (Air MIDAS) model evaluating complex human-automation integration currently underway at NASA Ames Research Center will highlight the importance to occupational safety of considering both cognitive and physical aspects of performance when researching human error.
Human performance cognitive-behavioral modeling: a benefit for occupational safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gore, Brian F.

2002-01-01

Human Performance Modeling (HPM) is a computer-aided job analysis software methodology used to generate predictions of complex human-automation integration and system flow patterns with the goal of improving operator and system safety. The use of HPM tools has recently been increasing due to reductions in computational cost, augmentations in the tools' fidelity, and usefulness in the generated output. An examination of an Air Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (Air MIDAS) model evaluating complex human-automation integration currently underway at NASA Ames Research Center will highlight the importance to occupational safety of considering both cognitive and physical aspects of performance when researching human error.
24 CFR 965.406 - Benefit/cost analysis for similar projects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Benefit/cost analysis for similar... Existing PHA-Owned Projects § 965.406 Benefit/cost analysis for similar projects. PHAs with more than one project of similar design and utilities service may prepare a benefit/cost analysis for a representative...
How to Decide on Modeling Details: Risk and Benefit Assessment.

PubMed

Özilgen, Mustafa

Mathematical models based on thermodynamic, kinetic, heat, and mass transfer analysis are central to this chapter. Microbial growth, death, enzyme inactivation models, and the modeling of material properties, including those pertinent to conduction and convection heating, mass transfer, such as diffusion and convective mass transfer, and thermodynamic properties, such as specific heat, enthalpy, and Gibbs free energy of formation and specific chemical exergy are also needed in this task. The origins, simplifying assumptions, and uses of model equations are discussed in this chapter, together with their benefits. The simplified forms of these models are sometimes referred to as "laws," such as "the first law of thermodynamics" or "Fick's second law." Starting to modeling a study with such "laws" without considering the conditions under which they are valid runs the risk of ending up with erronous conclusions. On the other hand, models started with fundamental concepts and simplified with appropriate considerations may offer explanations for the phenomena which may not be obtained just with measurements or unprocessed experimental data. The discussion presented here is strengthened with case studies and references to the literature.
Adjuvant radiation therapy and lymphadenectomy in esophageal cancer: a SEER database analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Ravi; Weber, Jill; Hoffe, Sarah E; Almhanna, Khaldoun; Karl, Richard; Meredith, Kenneth

2013-08-01

This study seeks to determine the effects of postoperative radiation therapy and lymphadenectomy on survival in esophageal cancer. An analysis of patients with surgically resected esophageal cancer from the SEER database between 2004 and 2008 was performed to determine association of adjuvant radiation and lymph node dissection on survival. Survival curves were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank analysis. Multivariate analysis (MVA) was performed by the Cox proportional hazard model. We identified 2109 patients who met inclusion criteria. Radiation was associated with increased survival in stage III patients (p = 0.005), no benefit in stage II (p = 0.075) and IV (p = 0.913) patients, and decreased survival in stage I patients (p < 0.0001). Univariate analysis revealed that radiation therapy was associated with a survival benefit node positive (N1) patients while it was associated with a detriment in survival for node negative (N0) patients. Removing >12 and >15 lymph nodes was associated with increased survival in N0 patients, while removing >8, >10, >12, >15, and >20 lymph nodes was associated with a survival benefit in N1 patients. MVA revealed that age, gender, tumor and nodal stage, tumor location, and number of lymph nodes removed were prognostic for survival in N0 patients. In N1 patients, MVA showed the age, tumor stage, number of lymph nodes removed, and radiation were prognostic for survival. The number of lymph nodes removed in esophageal cancer is associated with increased survival. The benefit of adjuvant radiation therapy on survival in esophageal cancer is limited to N1 patients.
Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

2013-01-01

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.
Toward a Standardized ODH Analysis Technique

DOE PAGES

Degraff, Brian D.

2016-12-01

Standardization of ODH analysis and mitigation policy thus represents an opportunity for the cryogenic community. There are several benefits for industry and government facilities to develop an applicable unified standard for ODH. The number of reviewers would increase, and review projects across different facilities would be simpler. Here, it would also present the opportunity for the community to broaden the development of expertise in modeling complicated flow geometries.
A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana

The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the firstmore » set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed sector and region level. A second methodological advancement is a quantification of the co-benefits in terms of the associated atmospheric concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and consequent mortality related outcomes across different models. This is made possible by the use of state-of the art simplified atmospheric model that allows for the first time a computationally feasible multi-model evaluation of such outcomes.« less
Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...
Prioritizing conservation activities using reserve site selection methods and population viability analysis.

PubMed

Newbold, Stephen C; Siikamäki, Juha

2009-10-01

In recent years a large literature on reserve site selection (RSS) has developed at the interface between ecology, operations research, and environmental economics. Reserve site selection models use numerical optimization techniques to select sites for a network of nature reserves for protecting biodiversity. In this paper, we develop a population viability analysis (PVA) model for salmon and incorporate it into an RSS framework for prioritizing conservation activities in upstream watersheds. We use spawner return data for three closely related salmon stocks in the upper Columbia River basin and estimates of the economic costs of watershed protection from NOAA to illustrate the framework. We compare the relative cost-effectiveness of five alternative watershed prioritization methods, based on various combinations of biological and economic information. Prioritization based on biological benefit-economic cost comparisons and accounting for spatial interdependencies among watersheds substantially outperforms other more heuristic methods. When using this best-performing prioritization method, spending 10% of the cost of protecting all upstream watersheds yields 79% of the biological benefits (increase in stock persistence) from protecting all watersheds, compared to between 20% and 64% for the alternative methods. We also find that prioritization based on either costs or benefits alone can lead to severe reductions in cost-effectiveness.

Statistical comparison of a hybrid approach with approximate and exact inference models for Fusion 2+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. David; Wiesenfeld, Eric; Gelfand, Andrew

2007-04-01

One of the greatest challenges in modern combat is maintaining a high level of timely Situational Awareness (SA). In many situations, computational complexity and accuracy considerations make the development and deployment of real-time, high-level inference tools very difficult. An innovative hybrid framework that combines Bayesian inference, in the form of Bayesian Networks, and Possibility Theory, in the form of Fuzzy Logic systems, has recently been introduced to provide a rigorous framework for high-level inference. In previous research, the theoretical basis and benefits of the hybrid approach have been developed. However, lacking is a concrete experimental comparison of the hybrid framework with traditional fusion methods, to demonstrate and quantify this benefit. The goal of this research, therefore, is to provide a statistical analysis on the comparison of the accuracy and performance of hybrid network theory, with pure Bayesian and Fuzzy systems and an inexact Bayesian system approximated using Particle Filtering. To accomplish this task, domain specific models will be developed under these different theoretical approaches and then evaluated, via Monte Carlo Simulation, in comparison to situational ground truth to measure accuracy and fidelity. Following this, a rigorous statistical analysis of the performance results will be performed, to quantify the benefit of hybrid inference to other fusion tools.
Planning influenza vaccination programs: a cost benefit model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Although annual influenza vaccination could decrease the significant economic and humanistic burden of influenza in the United States, immunization rates are below recommended levels, and concerns remain whether immunization programs can be cost beneficial. The research objective was to compare cost benefit of various immunization strategies from employer, employee, and societal perspectives. Methods An actuarial model was developed based on the published literature to estimate the costs and benefits of influenza immunization programs. Useful features of the model included customization by population age and risk-level, potential pandemic risk, and projection year. Various immunization strategies were modelled for an average U.S. population of 15,000 persons vaccinated in pharmacies or doctor’s office during the 2011/12 season. The primary outcome measure reported net cost savings per vaccinated (PV) from the perspective of various stakeholders. Results Given a typical U.S. population, an influenza immunization program will be cost beneficial for employers when more than 37% of individuals receive vaccine in non-traditional settings such as pharmacies. The baseline scenario, where 50% of persons would be vaccinated in non-traditional settings, estimated net savings of $6 PV. Programs that limited to pharmacy setting ($31 PV) or targeted persons with high-risk comorbidities ($83 PV) or seniors ($107 PV) were found to increase cost benefit. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the scenario-based findings. Conclusions Both universal and targeted vaccination programs can be cost beneficial. Proper planning with cost models can help employers and policy makers develop strategies to improve the impact of immunization programs. PMID:22835081
Insect pest management for raw commodities during storage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This book chapter provides an overview of the pest management decision-making process during grain storage. An in-depth discussion of sampling methods, cost-benefit analysis, expert systems, consultants and the use of computer simulation models is provided. Sampling is essential to determine if pest...
Applying analysis tools in planning for operations : case study #4 -- application of microsimulation in combination with travel demand models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

More and more, transportation system operators are seeing the benefits of strengthening links between planning and operations. A critical element in improving transportation decision-making and the effectiveness of transportation systems related to o...
Competent Systems: Effective, Efficient, Deliverable.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramson, Bruce

Recent developments in artificial intelligence and decision analysis suggest reassessing the approaches commonly taken to the design of knowledge-based systems. Competent systems are based on models known as influence diagrams, which graphically capture a domain's basic objects and their interrelationships. Among the benefits offered by influence…
Modeling analysis of the benefits of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) for sustainable agriculture in arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. S.; Vico, G.; Porporato, A. M.

2012-12-01

In view of the pressing needs to sustainably manage water and soil resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, here we propose a new carbon assimilation model that couples a simple yet mechanistic description of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) photosynthesis to the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. The model captures the full coupling of the CAM photosynthetic pathway with fluctuations in environmental conditions (cycles of light availability and air humidity, changes in soil moisture as driven by plant transpiration and rainfall occurrence). As such, the model is capable of reproducing the different phases of CAM, including daytime stomatal closure and photosynthesis from malic acid, afternoon stomatal opening for direct carbon assimilation, and nighttime stomatal opening for CO2 uptake and malic acid synthesis. Thanks to its versatility, our model allows us to relate CAM productivity, for both obligate and facultative CAM plants, to various soil moisture conditions including hydroclimatic scenarios of rainfall frequency and intensity as well as different night-time conditions of temperature, wind speed, and humidity. Our analyses show the potential productive benefits of CAM cultivation in dryland environments as feedstock and possible biofuel source, in terms of sustainable water use and economic benefits. In particular, the model is used to explore conditions where CAM plant resiliency to water stress makes these plants a more sustainable alternative to C3 and C4 species for potential deficit irrigation.
* Ethical Issues in the Use of Animal Models for Tissue Engineering: Reflections on Legal Aspects, Moral Theory, Three Rs Strategies, and Harm-Benefit Analysis.

PubMed

Liguori, Gabriel R; Jeronimus, Bertus F; de Aquinas Liguori, Tácia T; Moreira, Luiz Felipe P; Harmsen, Martin C

2017-12-01

Animal experimentation requires a solid and rational moral foundation. Objective and emphatic decision-making and protocol evaluation by researchers and ethics committees remain a difficult and sensitive matter. This article presents three perspectives that facilitate a consideration of the minimally acceptable standard for animal experiments, in particular, in tissue engineering (TE) and regenerative medicine. First, we review the boundaries provided by law and public opinion in America and Europe. Second, we review contemporary moral theory to introduce the Neo-Rawlsian contractarian theory to objectively evaluate the ethics of animal experiments. Third, we introduce the importance of available reduction, replacement, and refinement strategies, which should be accounted for in moral decision-making and protocol evaluation of animal experiments. The three perspectives are integrated into an algorithmic and graphic harm-benefit analysis tool based on the most relevant aspects of animal models in TE. We conclude with a consideration of future avenues to improve animal experiments.
Shipping emission forecasts and cost-benefit analysis of China ports and key regions' control.

PubMed

Liu, Huan; Meng, Zhi-Hang; Shang, Yi; Lv, Zhao-Feng; Jin, Xin-Xin; Fu, Ming-Liang; He, Ke-Bin

2018-05-01

China established Domestic Emission Control Area (DECA) for sulphur since 2015 to constrain the increasing shipping emissions. However, future DECA policy-makings are not supported due to a lack of quantitive evaluations. To investigate the effects of current and possible Chinese DECAs policies, a model is presented for the forecast of shipping emissions and evaluation of potential costs and benefits of an DECA policy package set in 2020. It includes a port-level and regional-level projection accounting for shipping trade volume growth, share of ship types, and fuel consumption. The results show that without control measures, both SO 2 and particulate matter (PM) emissions are expected to increase by 15.3-61.2% in Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta from 2013 to 2020. However, most emissions can be reduced annually by the establishment of a DECA that depends on the size of the control area and the fuel sulphur content limit. Costs range from 0.667 to 1.561 billion dollars (control regional shipping emissions) based on current fuel price. A social cost method shows the regional control scenarios benefit-cost ratios vary from 4.3 to 5.1 with large uncertainty. Chemical transportation model combined with health model method is used to get the monetary health benefits and then compared with the results from social cost method. This study suggests that Chinese DECAs will reduce the projected emissions at a favorable benefit-cost ratio, and furthermore proposes policy combinations that provide high cost-effective benefits as a reference for future policy-making. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cost-benefit analysis of hospital based postpartum vaccination with combined tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap).

PubMed

Ding, Yao; Yeh, Sylvia H; Mink, Chris Anna M; Zangwill, Kenneth M; Allred, Norma J; Hay, Joel W

2013-05-24

To assess the economic benefits associated with hospital-based postpartum Tdap (combined tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis) vaccination. A decision tree model was constructed to calculate the potential cost-benefit of this strategy from both a health care system and a societal perspective. Probabilities and costs were derived from published literature, data reported to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and recommendations from expert panels. The maternal vaccination protection period for infants was defined as 7 months, and 10 years of waning immunity following Tdap for birth mothers was estimated in the model. All cost estimates were inflated to year 2012 US dollars and discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. In the base case from a societal perspective, the expected costs per vaccinated and unvaccinated mother were estimated at $129.27 and $187.97, respectively, suggesting an expected net benefit of $58.70 per vaccinated mother. The overall societal benefits in the cohort of 3.6 million U.S. birth mothers ranged from $52.8-126.8 million, depending on the vaccination coverage level. If including direct medical costs only, the strategy would not generate net savings from a health care system perspective. Annual incidence of pertussis in birth mothers and Tdap efficacy exhibited substantial impact on the model as shown in one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses. Although postpartum Tdap vaccination is not cost-beneficial from a health care system perspective in the base case, this strategy is likely to generate net benefits from a societal perspective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices.more » The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.« less
Determining the Ideal Strategy for Ventilator-associated Pneumonia Prevention. Cost-Benefit Analysis.

PubMed

Branch-Elliman, Westyn; Wright, Sharon B; Howell, Michael D

2015-07-01

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common healthcare-associated infection with high associated cost and poor patient outcomes. Many strategies for VAP reduction have been evaluated. However, the combination of strategies with the optimal cost-benefit ratio remains unknown. To determine the preferred VAP prevention strategy, both from the hospital and societal perspectives. A cost-benefit decision model with a Markov model was constructed. Baseline probability of VAP, death, reintubation, and discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) alive were ascertained from clinical trial data. Model inputs were obtained from the medical literature and the U.S. Department of Labor; a device cost was obtained from the manufacturer. Sensitivity analyses were completed to test the robustness of model results. Overall least expensive strategy and the strategy with the best cost-benefit ratio, up to a willingness to pay threshold of $50,000-100,000 per case of VAP averted was sought. We examined a total of 120 unique combinations of VAP prevention strategies. The preferred strategy from the hospital perspective included subglottic suction endotracheal tubes, probiotics, and the Institute for Healthcare Improvement VAP Prevention Bundle. The preferred strategy from the point of view of society also included additional prevention measures (oral care with chlorhexidine and selective oral decontamination). No preferred strategies included silver endotracheal tubes or selective gut decontamination. Despite their infrequent use, current data suggest that the use of prophylactic probiotics and subglottic endotracheal tubes are cost-effective for preventing VAP from the societal and hospital perspectives.
77 FR 16852 - Notice of Reclassification of Five Regional Offices to Investigative Field Offices: Seattle, WA...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-22

..., it does not need to reorganize. This notice also includes a cost-benefit analysis supporting the...-benefit analysis of the effect of the plan on the office involved. The required cost-benefit analysis must... such offices, HUD/OIG nonetheless voluntarily publishes the following cost-benefit analysis of its plan...
Assessing biocomputational modelling in transforming clinical guidelines for osteoporosis management.

PubMed

Thiel, Rainer; Viceconti, Marco; Stroetmann, Karl

2011-01-01

Biocomputational modelling as developed by the European Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) Initiative is the area of ICT most likely to revolutionise in the longer term the practice of medicine. Using the example of osteoporosis management, a socio-economic assessment framework is presented that captures how the transformation of clinical guidelines through VPH models can be evaluated. Applied to the Osteoporotic Virtual Physiological Human Project, a consequent benefit-cost analysis delivers promising results, both methodologically and substantially.
Assessment of Life Cycle Information Exchanges (LCie): Understanding the Value-Added Benefit of a COBie Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

exchange (COBie), Building Information Modeling ( BIM ), value-added analysis, business processes, project management 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17...equipment. The innovative aspect of Building In- formation Modeling ( BIM ) is that it creates a computable building descrip- tion. The ability to use a...interoperability. In order for the building information to be interoperable, it must also con- form to a common data model , or schema, that defines the class
Evaluation of POE and instructor-led problem-solving approaches integrated into force and motion lecture classes using a model analysis technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakkapao, S.; Pengpan, T.; Srikeaw, S.; Prasitpong, S.

2014-01-01

This study aims to investigate the use of the predict-observe-explain (POE) approach integrated into large lecture classes on forces and motion. It is compared to the instructor-led problem-solving method using model analysis. The samples are science (SC, N = 420) and engineering (EN, N = 434) freshmen, from Prince of Songkla University, Thailand. Research findings from the force and motion conceptual evaluation indicate that the multimedia-supported POE method promotes students’ learning better than the problem-solving method, in particular for the velocity and acceleration concepts. There is a small shift of the students’ model states after the problem-solving instruction. Moreover, by using model analysis instructors are able to investigate students’ misconceptions and evaluate teaching methods. It benefits instructors in organizing subsequent instructional materials.
Can Regulatory Bodies Expect Efficient Help from Formal Methods?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez Ruiz, Eduardo R.; Lemoine, Michel

2010-01-01

In the context of EDEMOI - a French national project that proposed the use of semiformal and formal methods to infer the consistency and robustness of aeronautical regulations through the analysis of faithfully representative models- a methodology had been suggested (and applied) to different (safety and security-related) aeronautical regulations. This paper summarizes the preliminary results of this experience by stating which were the methodology s expected benefits, from a scientific point of view, and which are its useful benefits, from a regulatory body s point of view.
Cost-benefit analysis of a socio-technical intervention in a Brazilian footwear company.

PubMed

Guimarães, L B de M; Ribeiro, J L D; Renner, J S

2012-09-01

This article presents a costs-benefits analysis of a macroergonomic intervention in a Brazilian footwear company. Comparing results of a pilot line (composed by 100 multiskilled workers organized in teams) with eight traditional lines (still working in a one human being/one task model) the intervention showed to be worth pursuing since achieved gains were higher than intervention costs: there was a reduction in human resource costs (80% reduction in industrial accidents, 100% reduction in work-related musculoskeletal disorders or WMSD, medical consultations and turnover, and a 45.65% reduction in absenteeism) and production improvement (productivity increased in 3% and production waste decrease to less than 1%). The net intervention value of the intervention was around U$ 430,000 with a benefit-to-cost ratio of 7.2. Moreover, employees who worked in the pilot line understood that their quality of work life improved, compensating the anxiety brought up by the radical changes implemented. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.
Population Viability Analysis of Riverine Fishes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bates, P.; Chandler, J.; Jager, H.I.

Many utilities face conflkts between two goals: cost-efficient hydropower generation and protecting riverine fishes. Research to develop ecological simulation tools that can evaluate alternative mitigation strategies in terms of their benefits to fish populations is vital to informed decision-making. In this paper, we describe our approach to population viability analysis of riverine fishes in general and Snake River white sturgeon in particular. We are finding that the individual-based modeling approach used in previous in-stream flow applications is well suited to addressing questions about the viability of species of concern for several reasons. Chief among these are: (1) the abiIity tomore » represent the effects of individual variation in life history characteristics on predicted population viabili~, (2) the flexibili~ needed to quanti~ the ecological benefits of alternative flow management options by representing spatial and temporal variation in flow and temperaturty and (3) the flexibility needed to quantifi the ecological benefits of non-flow related manipulations (i.e., passage, screening and hatchery supplementation).« less
Economics of vaccines revisited.

PubMed

Postma, Maarten J; Standaert, Baudouin A

2013-05-01

Performing a total health economic analysis of a vaccine newly introduced into the market today is a challenge when using the conventional cost-effectiveness analysis we normally apply on pharmaceutical products. There are many reasons for that, such as: the uncertainty in the total benefit (direct and indirect) to be measured in a population when using a cohort model; (1) appropriate rules about discounting the long-term impact of vaccines are absent jeopardizing therefore their value at the initial investment; (2) the presence of opposite contexts when introducing the vaccine in developed vs. the developing world with high benefits, low initial health care investment for the latter vs. marginal benefit and high cost for the former; with a corresponding paradox for the vaccine becoming very cost-effective in low income countries but rather medium in middle low to high middle income countries; (3) and the type of trial assessment for the newer vaccines is now often performed with immunogenicity reaction instead of clinical endpoints which still leaves questions on their real impact and their head-to-head comparison. (4.)
Predicting the decision to pursue mediation in civil disputes: a hierarchical classes analysis.

PubMed

Reich, Warren A; Kressel, Kenneth; Scanlon, Kathleen M; Weiner, Gary A

2007-11-01

Clients (N = 185) involved in civil court cases completed the CPR Institute's Mediation Screen, which is designed to assist in making a decision about pursuing mediation. The authors modeled data using hierarchical classes analysis (HICLAS), a clustering algorithm that places clients into 1 set of classes and CPRMS items into another set of classes. HICLAS then links the sets of classes so that any class of clients can be identified in terms of the classes of items they endorsed. HICLAS-derived item classes reflected 2 underlying themes: (a) suitability of the dispute for a problem-solving process and (b) potential benefits of mediation. All clients who perceived that mediation would be beneficial also believed that the context of their conflict was favorable to mediation; however, not all clients who saw a favorable context believed they would benefit from mediation. The majority of clients who agreed to pursue mediation endorsed items reflecting both contextual suitability and perceived benefits of mediation.

Integrated Assessment of Health-related Economic Impacts of U.S. Air Pollution Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, R. K.; Rausch, S.; Selin, N. E.

2012-12-01

We examine the environmental impacts, health-related economic benefits, and distributional effects of new US regulations to reduce smog from power plants, namely: the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Using integrated assessment methods, linking atmospheric and economic models, we assess the magnitude of economy-wide effects and distributional consequences that are not captured by traditional regulatory impact assessment methods. We study the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, a modified allowance trading scheme that caps emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants in the eastern United States and thus reduces ozone and particulate matter pollution. We use results from the regulatory regional air quality model, CAMx (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions), and epidemiologic studies in BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program), to quantify differences in morbidities and mortalities due to this policy. To assess the economy-wide and distributional consequences of these health impacts, we apply a recently developed economic and policy model, the US Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Model (USREP), a multi-region, multi-sector, multi-household, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium economic model of the US that provides a detailed representation of the energy sector, and the ability to represent energy and environmental policies. We add to USREP a representation of air pollution impacts, including the estimation and valuation of health outcomes and their effects on health services, welfare, and factor markets. We find that the economic welfare benefits of the Rule are underestimated by traditional methods, which omit economy-wide impacts. We also quantify the distribution of benefits, which have varying effects across US regions, income groups, and pollutants, and we identify factors influencing this distribution, including the geographic variation of pollution and population as well as underlying economic conditions.
Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST): User's Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.; Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib

1994-01-01

The Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) system is a formal method to assess advanced technologies and quantify the benefit contributions for prioritization. T/BEST may be used to provide guidelines to identify and prioritize high payoff research areas, help manage research and limited resources, show the link between advanced concepts and the bottom line, i.e., accrued benefit and value, and to communicate credibly the benefits of research. The T/BEST software computer program is specifically designed to estimating benefits, and benefit sensitivities, of introducing new technologies into existing propulsion systems. Key engine cycle, structural, fluid, mission and cost analysis modules are used to provide a framework for interfacing with advanced technologies. An open-ended, modular approach is used to allow for modification and addition of both key and advanced technology modules. T/BEST has a hierarchical framework that yields varying levels of benefit estimation accuracy that are dependent on the degree of input detail available. This hierarchical feature permits rapid estimation of technology benefits even when the technology is at the conceptual stage. As knowledge of the technology details increases the accuracy of the benefit analysis increases. Included in T/BEST's framework are correlations developed from a statistical data base that is relied upon if there is insufficient information given in a particular area, e.g., fuel capacity or aircraft landing weight. Statistical predictions are not required if these data are specified in the mission requirements. The engine cycle, structural fluid, cost, noise, and emissions analyses interact with the default or user material and component libraries to yield estimates of specific global benefits: range, speed, thrust, capacity, component life, noise, emissions, specific fuel consumption, component and engine weights, pre-certification test, mission performance engine cost, direct operating cost, life cycle cost, manufacturing cost, development cost, risk, and development time. Currently, T/BEST operates on stand-alone or networked workstations, and uses a UNIX shell or script to control the operation of interfaced FORTRAN based analyses. T/BEST's interface structure works equally well with non-FORTRAN or mixed software analysis. This interface structure is designed to maintain the integrity of the expert's analyses by interfacing with expert's existing input and output files. Parameter input and output data (e.g., number of blades, hub diameters, etc.) are passed via T/BEST's neutral file, while copious data (e.g., finite element models, profiles, etc.) are passed via file pointers that point to the expert's analyses output files. In order to make the communications between the T/BEST's neutral file and attached analyses codes simple, only two software commands, PUT and GET, are required. This simplicity permits easy access to all input and output variables contained within the neutral file. Both public domain and proprietary analyses codes may be attached with a minimal amount of effort, while maintaining full data and analysis integrity, and security. T/BESt's sotware framework, status, beginner-to-expert operation, interface architecture, analysis module addition, and key analysis modules are discussed. Representative examples of T/BEST benefit analyses are shown.
Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST): User's manual

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Generazio, Edward R.; Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib

1994-12-01

The Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) system is a formal method to assess advanced technologies and quantify the benefit contributions for prioritization. T/BEST may be used to provide guidelines to identify and prioritize high payoff research areas, help manage research and limited resources, show the link between advanced concepts and the bottom line, i.e., accrued benefit and value, and to communicate credibly the benefits of research. The T/BEST software computer program is specifically designed to estimating benefits, and benefit sensitivities, of introducing new technologies into existing propulsion systems. Key engine cycle, structural, fluid, mission and cost analysis modules are used to provide a framework for interfacing with advanced technologies. An open-ended, modular approach is used to allow for modification and addition of both key and advanced technology modules. T/BEST has a hierarchical framework that yields varying levels of benefit estimation accuracy that are dependent on the degree of input detail available. This hierarchical feature permits rapid estimation of technology benefits even when the technology is at the conceptual stage. As knowledge of the technology details increases the accuracy of the benefit analysis increases. Included in T/BEST's framework are correlations developed from a statistical data base that is relied upon if there is insufficient information given in a particular area, e.g., fuel capacity or aircraft landing weight. Statistical predictions are not required if these data are specified in the mission requirements. The engine cycle, structural fluid, cost, noise, and emissions analyses interact with the default or user material and component libraries to yield estimates of specific global benefits: range, speed, thrust, capacity, component life, noise, emissions, specific fuel consumption, component and engine weights, pre-certification test, mission performance engine cost, direct operating cost, life cycle cost, manufacturing cost, development cost, risk, and development time. Currently, T/BEST operates on stand-alone or networked workstations, and uses a UNIX shell or script to control the operation of interfaced FORTRAN based analyses. T/BEST's interface structure works equally well with non-FORTRAN or mixed software analysis. This interface structure is designed to maintain the integrity of the expert's analyses by interfacing with expert's existing input and output files. Parameter input and output data (e.g., number of blades, hub diameters, etc.) are passed via T/BEST's neutral file, while copious data (e.g., finite element models, profiles, etc.) are passed via file pointers that point to the expert's analyses output files. In order to make the communications between the T/BEST's neutral file and attached analyses codes simple, only two software commands, PUT and GET, are required. This simplicity permits easy access to all input and output variables contained within the neutral file. Both public domain and proprietary analyses codes may be attached with a minimal amount of effort, while maintaining full data and analysis integrity, and security.
Identification of Patients Expected to Benefit from Electronic Alerts for Acute Kidney Injury.

PubMed

Biswas, Aditya; Parikh, Chirag R; Feldman, Harold I; Garg, Amit X; Latham, Stephen; Lin, Haiqun; Palevsky, Paul M; Ugwuowo, Ugochukwu; Wilson, F Perry

2018-06-07

Electronic alerts for heterogenous conditions such as AKI may not provide benefit for all eligible patients and can lead to alert fatigue, suggesting that personalized alert targeting may be useful. Uplift-based alert targeting may be superior to purely prognostic-targeting of interventions because uplift models assess marginal treatment effect rather than likelihood of outcome. This is a secondary analysis of a clinical trial of 2278 adult patients with AKI randomized to an automated, electronic alert system versus usual care. We used three uplift algorithms and one purely prognostic algorithm, trained in 70% of the data, and evaluated the effect of targeting alerts to patients with higher scores in the held-out 30% of the data. The performance of the targeting strategy was assessed as the interaction between the model prediction of likelihood to benefit from alerts and randomization status. The outcome of interest was maximum relative change in creatinine from the time of randomization to 3 days after randomization. The three uplift score algorithms all gave rise to a significant interaction term, suggesting that a strategy of targeting individuals with higher uplift scores would lead to a beneficial effect of AKI alerting, in contrast to the null effect seen in the overall study. The prognostic model did not successfully stratify patients with regards to benefit of the intervention. Among individuals in the high uplift group, alerting was associated with a median reduction in change in creatinine of -5.3% ( P =0.03). In the low uplift group, alerting was associated with a median increase in change in creatinine of +5.3% ( P =0.005). Older individuals, women, and those with a lower randomization creatinine were more likely to receive high uplift scores, suggesting that alerts may benefit those with more slowly developing AKI. Uplift modeling, which accounts for treatment effect, can successfully target electronic alerts for AKI to those most likely to benefit, whereas purely prognostic targeting cannot. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.
Risk/Benefit Communication about Food-A Systematic Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Frewer, L J; Fischer, A R H; Brennan, M; Bánáti, D; Lion, R; Meertens, R M; Rowe, G; Siegrist, M; Verbeke, W; Vereijken, C M J L

2016-07-26

A systematic review relevant to the following research questions was conducted (1) the extent to which different theoretical frameworks have been applied to food risk/benefit communication and (2) the impact such food risk/benefit communication interventions have had on related risk/benefit attitudes and behaviors. Fifty four papers were identified. The analysis revealed that (primarily European or US) research interest has been relatively recent. Certain food issues were of greater interest to researchers than others, perhaps reflecting the occurrence of a crisis, or policy concern. Three broad themes relevant to the development of best practice in risk (benefit) communication were identified: the characteristics of the target population; the contents of the information; and the characteristics of the information sources. Within these themes, independent and dependent variables differed considerably. Overall, acute risk (benefit) communication will require advances in communication process whereas chronic communication needs to identify audience requirements. Both citizen's risk/benefit perceptions and (if relevant) related behaviors need to be taken into account, and recommendations for behavioral change need to be concrete and actionable. The application of theoretical frameworks to the study of risk (benefit) communication was infrequent, and developing predictive models of effective risk (benefit) communication may be contingent on improved theoretical perspectives.
Measuring the individual benefit of a medical or behavioral treatment using generalized linear mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Diaz, Francisco J

2016-10-15

We propose statistical definitions of the individual benefit of a medical or behavioral treatment and of the severity of a chronic illness. These definitions are used to develop a graphical method that can be used by statisticians and clinicians in the data analysis of clinical trials from the perspective of personalized medicine. The method focuses on assessing and comparing individual effects of treatments rather than average effects and can be used with continuous and discrete responses, including dichotomous and count responses. The method is based on new developments in generalized linear mixed-effects models, which are introduced in this article. To illustrate, analyses of data from the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression clinical trial of sequences of treatments for depression and data from a clinical trial of respiratory treatments are presented. The estimation of individual benefits is also explained. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Impact of pharmacy benefit design on prescription drug utilization: a fixed effects analysis of plan sponsor data.

PubMed

Roebuck, M Christopher; Liberman, Joshua N

2009-06-01

To study the impact of various elements of pharmacy benefit design on both the absolute and relative utilization of generics, brands, retail pharmacy, and mail service. Panel data on 1,074 plan sponsors covering 21.6 million individuals over 12 calendar quarters (2005-2007). A retrospective analysis of pharmacy claims. To control for potential endogeneity, linear fixed effects models were estimated for each of six dependent variables: the generic utilization rate, the brand utilization rate, the generic dispensing rate (GDR), the retail pharmacy utilization rate, the mail service utilization rate, and the mail distribution rate. Most member cost-share variables were nonlinearly associated with changes in prescription drug utilization. Marginal effects were generally greater in magnitude for brand out-of-pocket costs than for generic out-of-pocket costs. Time dummies, as well as other pharmacy benefit design elements, also yielded significant results. Prior estimates of the effect of member cost sharing on prescription drug utilization may be biased if complex benefit designs, mail service fulfillment, and unmeasured factors such as pharmaceutical pipelines are not accounted for. Commonly cited relative utilization metrics, such as GDR, may be misleading if not examined alongside absolute prescription drug utilization.
The proposed 'concordance-statistic for benefit' provided a useful metric when modeling heterogeneous treatment effects.

PubMed

van Klaveren, David; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Serruys, Patrick W; Kent, David M

2018-02-01

Clinical prediction models that support treatment decisions are usually evaluated for their ability to predict the risk of an outcome rather than treatment benefit-the difference between outcome risk with vs. without therapy. We aimed to define performance metrics for a model's ability to predict treatment benefit. We analyzed data of the Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial and of three recombinant tissue plasminogen activator trials. We assessed alternative prediction models with a conventional risk concordance-statistic (c-statistic) and a novel c-statistic for benefit. We defined observed treatment benefit by the outcomes in pairs of patients matched on predicted benefit but discordant for treatment assignment. The 'c-for-benefit' represents the probability that from two randomly chosen matched patient pairs with unequal observed benefit, the pair with greater observed benefit also has a higher predicted benefit. Compared to a model without treatment interactions, the SYNTAX score II had improved ability to discriminate treatment benefit (c-for-benefit 0.590 vs. 0.552), despite having similar risk discrimination (c-statistic 0.725 vs. 0.719). However, for the simplified stroke-thrombolytic predictive instrument (TPI) vs. the original stroke-TPI, the c-for-benefit (0.584 vs. 0.578) was similar. The proposed methodology has the potential to measure a model's ability to predict treatment benefit not captured with conventional performance metrics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A framework for analysis of research risks and benefits to participants in standard of care pragmatic clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Stephanie C; Kim, Scott Yh

2016-12-01

Standard of care pragmatic clinical trials that compare treatments already in use could improve care and reduce costs, but there is considerable debate about the research risks of standard of care pragmatic clinical trials and how to apply informed consent regulations to such trials. We sought to develop a framework integrating the insights from opposing sides of the debate. We developed a formal risk-benefit analysis framework for standard of care pragmatic clinical trials and then applied it to key provisions of the US federal regulations. Our formal framework for standard of care pragmatic clinical trial risk-benefit analysis takes into account three key considerations: the ex ante estimates of risks and benefits of the treatments to be compared in a standard of care pragmatic clinical trial, the allocation ratios of treatments inside and outside such a trial, and the significance of some participants receiving a different treatment inside a trial than outside the trial. The framework provides practical guidance on how the research ethics regulations on informed consent should be applied to standard of care pragmatic clinical trials. Our proposed formal model makes explicit the relationship between the concepts used by opposing sides of the debate about the research risks of standard of care pragmatic clinical trials and can be used to clarify the implications for informed consent. © The Author(s) 2016.
Benefits of incorporating spatial organisation of catchments for a semi-distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, Andreas; Oppel, Henning

2017-04-01

To represent the hydrological behaviour of catchments a model should reproduce/reflect the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject of a certain spatial organisation. Since common models are mostly based on fundamental assumptions about hydrological processes, the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organisation of the catchment is desirable. We have developed a method that combines the idea of the width-function used for determination of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph with information about soil or topography. With this method we are able to assess the spatial organisation of selected catchment characteristics. An algorithm was developed that structures a watershed into sub-basins and other spatial units to minimise its heterogeneity. The outcomes of this algorithm are used for the spatial setup of a semi-distributed model. Since the spatial organisation of a catchment is not bound to a single characteristic, we have to embed information of multiple catchment properties. For this purpose we applied a fuzzy-based method to combine the spatial setup for multiple single characteristics into a union, optimal spatial differentiation. Utilizing this method, we are able to propose a spatial structure for a semi-distributed hydrological model, comprising the definition of sub-basins and a zonal classification within each sub-basin. Besides the improved spatial structuring, the performed analysis ameliorates modelling in another way. The spatial variability of catchment characteristics, which is considered by a minimum of heterogeneity in the zones, can be considered in a parameter constrained calibration scheme in a case study both options were used to explore the benefits of incorporating the spatial organisation and derived parameter constraints for the parametrisation of a HBV-96 model. We use two benchmark model setups (lumped and semi-distributed by common approaches) to address the benefits for different time and spatial scales. Moreover, the benefits for calibration effort, model performance in validation periods and process extrapolation are shown.
Energy taxation as a policy instrument to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions: A net benefit analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyd, R.; Krutilla, K.; Viscusi, W.K.

1995-07-01

This study evaluates the costs and benefits of energy taxation as a policy instrument to conserve energy and reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. The study combines economic cost estimates generated with a CGE model and monetary estimates of environmental damages in a comprehensive cost/benefit framework. We find that optimal CO{sub 2} emissions reductions range from 5 to 38%, depending on different assumptions about energy substitution elasticities and environmental damages. CO{sub 2} emissions reductions of between 8 and 64% can be attained at no additional welfare cost relative to a policy of not undertaking any action to control CO{sub 2} emissions. 33more » refs., 7 figs., 8 tabs.« less
A Model for Stakeholders' Influence on Internationalization: A Contribution from the Portuguese, Brazilian, and Dutch Cases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castro, Rita; Rosa, Maria João; Pinho, Carlos

2015-01-01

This article aims to discuss stakeholders' influence on higher education institutions' (HEIs) internationalization, through an analysis of the relationships established between stakeholders' importance and the institutions' rationales for internationalization, the strategies developed for internationalization, and the benefits from…
Data sharing in the ag community - what are current challenges, benefits, and opportunities

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The model for building agronomic science today and into the future to meet global food demands with limited resources will be through public-private data acquisition, sharing, and collaborative analysis. The public perspective focuses on preserving natural resources. The private perspective focuses ...
Error characterization of microwave satellite soil moisture data sets using fourier analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture is a key geophysical variable in hydrological and meteorological processes. Accurate and current observations of soil moisture over meso to global scales used as inputs to hydrological, weather and climate modelling will benefit the predictability and understanding of these processes. ...
Error characterization of microwave satellite soil moisture data sets using fourier analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Abstract: Soil moisture is a key geophysical variable in hydrological and meteorological processes. Accurate and current observations of soil moisture over mesoscale to global scales as inputs to hydrological, weather and climate modelling will benefit the predictability and understanding of these p...
Effect of Component Failures on Economics of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lubin, Barry T.

2012-02-02

This report describes an applied research program to assess the realistic costs of grid connected photovoltaic (PV) installations. A Board of Advisors was assembled that included management from the regional electric power utilities, as well as other participants from companies that work in the electric power industry. Although the program started with the intention of addressing effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) for utility-owned photovoltaic installations, results from the literature study and recommendations from the Board of Advisors led investigators to the conclusion that obtaining effective data for this analysis would be difficult, if not impossible. The effort was then re-focusedmore » on assessing the realistic costs and economic valuations of grid-connected PV installations. The 17 kW PV installation on the University of Hartford's Lincoln Theater was used as one source of actual data. The change in objective required a more technically oriented group. The re-organized working group (changes made due to the need for more technically oriented participants) made site visits to medium-sized PV installations in Connecticut with the objective of developing sources of operating histories. An extensive literature review helped to focus efforts in several technical and economic subjects. The objective of determining the consequences of component failures on both generation and economic returns required three analyses. The first was a Monte-Carlo-based simulation model for failure occurrences and the resulting downtime. Published failure data, though limited, was used to verify the results. A second model was developed to predict the reduction in or loss of electrical generation related to the downtime due to these failures. Finally, a comprehensive economic analysis, including these failures, was developed to determine realistic net present values of installed PV arrays. Two types of societal benefits were explored, with quantitative valuations developed for both. Some societal benefits associated with financial benefits to the utility of having a distributed generation capacity that is not fossil-fuel based have been included into the economic models. Also included and quantified in the models are several benefits to society more generally: job creation and some estimates of benefits from avoiding greenhouse emissions. PV system failures result in a lowering of the economic values of a grid-connected system, but this turned out to be a surprisingly small effect on the overall economics. The most significant benefit noted resulted from including the societal benefits accrued to the utility. This provided a marked increase in the valuations of the array and made the overall value proposition a financially attractive one, in that net present values exceeded installation costs. These results indicate that the Department of Energy and state regulatory bodies should consider focusing on societal benefits that create economic value for the utility, confirm these quantitative values, and work to have them accepted by the utilities and reflected in the rate structures for power obtained from grid-connected arrays. Understanding and applying the economic benefits evident in this work can significantly improve the business case for grid-connected PV installations. This work also indicates that the societal benefits to the population are real and defensible, but not nearly as easy to justify in a business case as are the benefits that accrue directly to the utility.« less
Game theoretic analysis of physical protection system design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canion, B.; Schneider, E.; Bickel, E.

The physical protection system (PPS) of a fictional small modular reactor (SMR) facility have been modeled as a platform for a game theoretic approach to security decision analysis. To demonstrate the game theoretic approach, a rational adversary with complete knowledge of the facility has been modeled attempting a sabotage attack. The adversary adjusts his decisions in response to investments made by the defender to enhance the security measures. This can lead to a conservative physical protection system design. Since defender upgrades were limited by a budget, cost benefit analysis may be conducted upon security upgrades. One approach to cost benefitmore » analysis is the efficient frontier, which depicts the reduction in expected consequence per incremental increase in the security budget.« less
Looking beyond borders: integrating best practices in benefit-risk analysis into the field of food and nutrition.

PubMed

Tijhuis, M J; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Poto, M; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, O; White, B C; Holm, F; Verhagen, H

2012-01-01

An integrated benefit-risk analysis aims to give guidance in decision situations where benefits do not clearly prevail over risks, and explicit weighing of benefits and risks is thus indicated. The BEPRARIBEAN project aims to advance benefit-risk analysis in the area of food and nutrition by learning from other fields. This paper constitutes the final stage of the project, in which commonalities and differences in benefit-risk analysis are identified between the Food and Nutrition field and other fields, namely Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics and Marketing-Finance, and Consumer Perception. From this, ways forward are characterized for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition. Integrated benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition may advance in the following ways: Increased engagement and communication between assessors, managers, and stakeholders; more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessment; accepting some risk; pre- and post-market analysis; explicit communication of the assessment purpose, input and output; more human (dose-response) data and more efficient use of human data; segmenting populations based on physiology; explicit consideration of value judgments in assessment; integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains; explicit recognition of the impact of consumer beliefs, opinions, views, perceptions, and attitudes on behaviour; and segmenting populations based on behaviour; the opportunities proposed here do not provide ultimate solutions; rather, they define a collection of issues to be taken account of in developing methods, tools, practices and policies, as well as refining the regulatory context, for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition and other fields. Thus, these opportunities will now need to be explored further and incorporated into benefit-risk practice and policy. If accepted, incorporation of these opportunities will also involve a paradigm shift in Food and Nutrition benefit-risk analysis towards conceiving the analysis as a process of creating shared knowledge among all stakeholders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Necessary, but Not Sufficient. The Benefit Concept in the Project Evaluation of Animal Research in the Context of Directive 2010/63/EU

PubMed Central

Eggel, Matthias; Grimm, Herwig

2018-01-01

Simple Summary According to Directive 2010/63/EU, project proposals involving experiments on animals have to be approved in a harm-benefit-analysis (HBA) that weighs the potential benefits of the experiment against the harm inflicted on animals. Only if the benefit outweighs the harm, will the project be approved. However, it is unclear what counts as a valid benefit. In this paper, we analyze the underlying premises of the HBA and its consequences for the project evaluation process. We come to the conclusion that knowledge, as such, is considered a low benefit and that only knowledge applied to benefit society, e.g., new cancer treatment or potent vaccine, etc., is considered to be a high benefit. However, we demonstrate that benefit of this kind cannot be assessed prospectively for research proposals due to the inherent uncertainties of research and the difficulty of determining extra-scientific factors that are crucial for the generation of societal benefit. As a consequence, we advocate a reevaluation of current project evaluation and propose to develop an alternative model for project evaluation. Abstract Directive 2010/63/EU (henceforth “Directive”) on the protection of animals used for scientific purposes mandates that every project proposal in EU member states involving procedures on living non-human vertebrates and cephalopods has to be approved in an review process, including a harm-benefit-analysis (HBA), to assess “whether the harm to the animals in terms of suffering, pain and distress is justified by the expected outcome taking into account ethical consideration and may ultimately benefit human beings, animals or the environment”. Despite the justifying relevance of “outcome” and “benefit”, it remains unclear how to understand these concepts. However, national authorities and applicants require a clear understanding of this to carry out a HBA. To analyze the underlying premises of the HBA and its consequences for the evaluation process, we introduce a heuristic to analyze the relation between “outcome”, “benefit” and “prospective benefit assessment”. We then apply the heuristic to all seven legitimate purposes for animal research stated in the Directive, namely basic research, translational or applied research, product safety, education and training, protection of the environment, preservation of species and forensic inquiries. As we show, regardless of which purpose is aimed for, applicants are hard-pressed to demonstrate tangible benefits in a prospective assessment. In the HBA, this becomes a problem since—as we argue—the only reasonable, expected and tangible outcome of research can ever be knowledge. The potential long-term benefits on the basis of gained knowledge are unforeseeable and impossible to predict. Research is bound to fall short of these proclaimed societal benefits and its credibility will suffer as long as research has to validate itself through short-term societal benefit. We propose to revise the ethical evaluation based on the HBA and we think it necessary to develop an alternative model for project evaluation that focuses on the value of knowledge as a scientific outcome as a necessary but not sufficient condition for societal benefit. PMID:29495562
Role of Adjuvant Therapy for Node-Negative Lung Cancer Invading the Chest Wall.

PubMed

Gao, Sarah J; Corso, Christopher D; Blasberg, Justin D; Detterbeck, Frank C; Boffa, Daniel J; Decker, Roy H; Kim, Anthony W

2017-03-01

The present study investigated the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation on survival among patients undergoing chest wall resection for T3N0 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients with T3N0 NSCLC who underwent chest wall resection were identified in the National Cancer Data Base in 2004 to 2012. The cohort was divided into patients who had received adjuvant chemotherapy, radiation therapy, chemoradiation therapy, or no adjuvant treatment. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were used to compare overall survival, and a bootstrapped Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the significant contributors to survival. A subset analysis was performed with stratification by margin status and tumor size. Of 759 patients identified, 42.0% underwent surgery alone, 23.3% underwent surgery followed by chemotherapy, 22.3% underwent surgery followed by chemoradiation therapy, and 12.3% underwent surgery followed by radiotherapy alone. Tumors > 4 cm benefited from adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy in the multivariable analysis, and those ≤ 4 cm benefited only from adjuvant chemotherapy. The subgroup analysis by margin status identified that margin-positive patients with tumors > 4 cm benefited significantly from either adjuvant chemoradiation therapy or radiation therapy alone. T3N0 NSCLC with chest wall invasion requires unique management compared with other stage IIB tumors. An important determinant of management is tumor size, with tumors ≤ 4 cm benefiting from adjuvant chemotherapy and tumors > 4 cm benefiting from adjuvant chemotherapy if margin negative and adjuvant chemoradiation therapy or radiotherapy if margin positive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Ensemble Detection and Analysis to Modeling Uncertainty in Non Stationary Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Racette, Paul

2010-01-01

Characterization of non stationary and nonlinear processes is a challenge in many engineering and scientific disciplines. Climate change modeling and projection, retrieving information from Doppler measurements of hydrometeors, and modeling calibration architectures and algorithms in microwave radiometers are example applications that can benefit from improvements in the modeling and analysis of non stationary processes. Analyses of measured signals have traditionally been limited to a single measurement series. Ensemble Detection is a technique whereby mixing calibrated noise produces an ensemble measurement set. The collection of ensemble data sets enables new methods for analyzing random signals and offers powerful new approaches to studying and analyzing non stationary processes. Derived information contained in the dynamic stochastic moments of a process will enable many novel applications.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuypers, Marshall A.; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Moore, Thomas W.

Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depthmore » meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.« less
Costs of abandoned coal mine reclamation and associated recreation benefits in Ohio.

PubMed

Mishra, Shruti K; Hitzhusen, Frederick J; Sohngen, Brent L; Guldmann, Jean-Michel

2012-06-15

Two hundred years of coal mining in Ohio have degraded land and water resources, imposing social costs on its citizens. An interdisciplinary approach employing hydrology, geographic information systems, and a recreation visitation function model, is used to estimate the damages from upstream coal mining to lakes in Ohio. The estimated recreational damages to five of the coal-mining-impacted lakes, using dissolved sulfate as coal-mining-impact indicator, amount to $21 Million per year. Post-reclamation recreational benefits from reducing sulfate concentrations by 6.5% and 15% in the five impacted lakes were estimated to range from $1.89 to $4.92 Million per year, with a net present value ranging from $14.56 Million to $37.79 Million. A benefit costs analysis (BCA) of recreational benefits and coal mine reclamation costs provides some evidence for potential Pareto improvement by investing limited resources in reclamation projects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Policy Analysis: Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

PubMed

Banzhaf, H Spencer; Burtraw, Dallas; Criscimagna, Susie Chung; Cosby, Bernard J; Evans, David A; Krupnick, Alan J; Siikamäki, Juha V

2016-03-15

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we estimate the economic value of ecological benefits from new air pollution policies in the Southern Appalachian ecosystem. Our results indicate that these policies generate aggregate benefits of about $3.7 billion, or about $16 per year per household in the region. The study provides currently missing information about the ecological benefits from air pollution policies that is needed to evaluate such policies comprehensively. More broadly, the study also illustrates how integrated biogeochemical and economic assessments of multidimensional ecosystems can evaluate the relative benefits of different policy options that vary by scale and across ecosystem attributes.
An analysis of the therapeutic benefits of genotyping in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Wright, Felicity A; Bebawy, Mary; O'Brien, Tracey A

2015-01-01

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a high-risk procedure that is offered, with curative intent, to patients with malignant and nonmalignant disease. The clinical benefits of personalization of therapy by genotyping have been demonstrated by the reduction in transplant related mortality from donor-recipient HLA matching. However, defining the relationship between genotype and transplant conditioning agents is yet to be translated into clinical practice. A number of the therapeutic agents used in stem cell transplant preparative regimens have pharmacokinetic parameters that predict benefit of incorporating pharmacogenomic data into dosing strategies. Busulfan, cyclophosphamide, thio-TEPA and etoposide have well-described drug metabolism pathways, however candidate gene studies have identified there is a gap in the identification of pharmacogenomic data that can be used to improve transplant outcomes. Incorporating pharmacogenomics into pharmacokinetic modeling may demonstrate the therapeutic benefits of genotyping in transplant preparative regimen agents.
Strategically placing green infrastructure: cost-effective land conservation in the floodplain.

PubMed

Kousky, Carolyn; Olmstead, Sheila M; Walls, Margaret A; Macauley, Molly

2013-04-16

Green infrastructure approaches have attracted increased attention from local governments as a way to lower flood risk and provide an array of other environmental services. The peer-reviewed literature, however, offers few estimates of the economic impacts of such approaches at the watershed scale. We estimate the avoided flood damages and the costs of preventing development of floodplain parcels in the East River Watershed of Wisconsin's Lower Fox River Basin. Results suggest that the costs of preventing conversion of all projected floodplain development would exceed the flood damage mitigation benefits by a substantial margin. However, targeting of investments to high-benefit, low-cost parcels can reverse this equation, generating net benefits. The analysis demonstrates how any flood-prone community can use a geographic-information-based model to estimate the flood damage reduction benefits of green infrastructure, compare them to the costs, and target investments to design cost-effective nonstructural flood damage mitigation policies.
Using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling for regulatory benefit-cost analysis: application to the Western hemisphere travel initiative in the land environment.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom

2008-04-01

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Nanoparticle Albumin-Bound Paclitaxel versus Solvent-Based Paclitaxel for the Treatment of Metastatic Breast Cancer in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vichansavakul, Kittaya

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of death among women in the US. Although early detection and treatment help to increase survival rates, some unfortunate patients develop metastatic breast cancer that has no cure. Palliative treatment is the main objective in this group of patients in order to prolong life and reduce toxicities from interventions. In the advancement of treatment for metastatic breast cancer, solvent-based paclitaxel has been widely used. However, solvent-based paclitaxel often causes adverse reactions. Therefore, researchers have developed a new chemotherapy based on nanotechnology. One of these drugs is the Nanoparticle albumin-bound Paclitaxel. This nanodrug aims to increase therapeutic index by reducing adverse reactions from solvents and to improve efficacy of conventional cytotoxic chemotherapy. Breast cancer is a disease with high epidemiological and economic burden. The treatment of metastatic breast cancer has not only high direct costs but also high indirect costs. Breast cancer affects mass populations, especially women younger than 50 years of age. It relates to high indirect costs due to lost productivity and premature death because the majority of these patients are in the workforce. Because of the high cost of breast cancer therapies and short survival rates, the question is raised whether the costs and benefits are worth paying or not. Due to the rising costs in healthcare and new financing policies that have been developed to address this issue, economic evaluation is an important aspect of the development and use of any new interventions. To guide policy makers on how to allocate limited healthcare resources in the most efficient and effective manner, many economic evaluation methods can be used to measure the costs, benefits, and impacts of healthcare innovations. Currently, economic evaluation and health outcomes studies have focused greatly on cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis. However, the previous studies had some limitations because they were conducted from a narrow perspective such as payer and provider point of views. The studies also considered only direct costs in their analysis. In fact, conducting economic evaluations from a narrow perspective and leaving out indirect costs might undermine the true benefit of the interventions for society. A cost-benefit analysis measures all costs and benefits in monetary units. It incorporates both health outcomes gained from individuals and the value gained to society in order to maximize the usage of resources effectively. This thesis conducted a cost-benefit analysis to compare nab-paclitaxel and generic paclitaxel in treating metastatic breast cancer from a societal perspective in the United States. The results showed that nab-paclitaxel is a cost-benefit strategy regardless of the different costs and benefits due to the extra 3 years of living it provides. In all models, when nab-paclitaxel was compared to generic paclitaxel, nab-paclitaxel showed cost-benefit to society. However, the results of generic paclitaxel were dependent on the total medical costs. Performing a cost-benefit analysis of nab-paclitaxel from a societal perspective is important to understand the true benefit of interventions. Furthermore, considering both direct and indirect costs, as well as benefits, of this drug is vital because the economic profile of nab-paclitaxel would be improved.
The Mission Planning Lab: A Visualization and Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daugherty, Sarah C.; Cervantes, Benjamin W.

2009-01-01

Simulation and visualization are powerful decision making tools that are time-saving and cost-effective. Space missions pose testing and e valuation challenges that can be overcome through modeling, simulatio n, and visualization of mission parameters. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration?s (NASA) Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) capi talizes on the benefits of modeling, simulation, and visualization to ols through a project initiative called The Mission Planning Lab (MPL ).
An Econometric Analysis of the Unemployment Insurance System in a Local Urban Labor Market. Final Report for September 1, 1973--September 30, 1974.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marston, Stephen Tilney

The study derives a model of the unemployment insurance (UI) system and its relationship to the labor market, estimates it with data from the Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, and evaluates its potential use to forecast UI benefit amounts, UI insured unemployment, and UI exhaustions. It further uses the model to analyze policy issues…
Cost Benefit Analysis of Boat Lifts

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

boats in the high tempo operations scenario, and combined information for all lifts. Crystal Ball ran the model and estimated this total impact...the Department of Homeland Security in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or...and recovery of the craft were considered and a total of three were tested. These models included: Hydro Hoist, SunStream, and Jet Dock. The study
Subjective health of adolescents from families in receipt of social assistance.

PubMed

Mazur, J; Dzielska, A; Zawadzka, D; Tabak, I; Małkowska-Szkutnik, A

2016-08-01

To compare the subjective health of adolescents from families in receipt and not in receipt of social assistance. Nationwide cross-sectional study of 1812 pupils aged 13-18 years in Poland in 2010-2011. The analysis focused on two dimensions of the Child Health and Illness Profile - Adolescent Edition questionnaire: discomfort and satisfaction with health. Age, sex and seven socio-economic factors were considered as determinants. Overall, 10.8% of the respondents reported that their families were in receipt of social welfare benefits. Among the families of low socio-economic status and living in poor regions, the percentage in receipt of social welfare benefits increased to 22.1%; however, this figure was lower (4.4%) if both parents had a higher level of education. After adjustment for six sociodemographic variables, the standardized regression coefficient of the social welfare benefits variable amounted to 0.072 (P = 0.004) in the discomfort model and -0.044 (P = 0.079) in the satisfaction model. A significant three-level interaction was found (P = 0.007) between residential location, neighbourhood affluence and being in receipt of social welfare benefits as predicators of discomfort score (general linear model). Being in receipt of social welfare benefits has a stronger impact on experiencing discomfort than diminishing satisfaction with one's health. It also has a stronger effect on physical problems than on emotional problems. The item 'on social assistance' is recommended as it helps to identify families particularly exposed to the health consequences of poverty. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Discerning the clinical relevance of biomarkers in early stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Ballinger, Tarah J; Kassem, Nawal; Shen, Fei; Jiang, Guanglong; Smith, Mary Lou; Railey, Elda; Howell, John; White, Carol B; Schneider, Bryan P

2017-07-01

Prior data suggest that breast cancer patients accept significant toxicity for small benefit. It is unclear whether personalized estimations of risk or benefit likelihood that could be provided by biomarkers alter treatment decisions in the curative setting. A choice-based conjoint (CBC) survey was conducted in 417 HER2-negative breast cancer patients who received chemotherapy in the curative setting. The survey presented pairs of treatment choices derived from common taxane- and anthracycline-based regimens, varying in degree of benefit by risk of recurrence and in toxicity profile, including peripheral neuropathy (PN) and congestive heart failure (CHF). Hypothetical biomarkers shifting benefit and toxicity risk were modeled to determine whether this knowledge alters choice. Previously identified biomarkers were evaluated using this model. Based on CBC analysis, a non-anthracycline regimen was the most preferred. Patients with prior PN had a similar preference for a taxane regimen as those who were PN naïve, but more dramatically shifted preference away from taxanes when PN was described as severe/irreversible. When modeled after hypothetical biomarkers, as the likelihood of PN increased, the preference for taxane-containing regimens decreased; similarly, as the likelihood of CHF increased, the preference for anthracycline regimens decreased. When evaluating validated biomarkers for PN and CHF, this knowledge did alter regimen preference. Patients faced with multi-faceted decisions consider personal experience and perceived risk of recurrent disease. Biomarkers providing information on likelihood of toxicity risk do influence treatment choices, and patients may accept reduced benefit when faced with higher risk of toxicity in the curative setting.
Multilevel models for estimating incremental net benefits in multinational studies.

PubMed

Grieve, Richard; Nixon, Richard; Thompson, Simon G; Cairns, John

2007-08-01

Multilevel models (MLMs) have been recommended for estimating incremental net benefits (INBs) in multicentre cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). However, these models have assumed that the INBs are exchangeable and that there is a common variance across all centres. This paper examines the plausibility of these assumptions by comparing various MLMs for estimating the mean INB in a multinational CEA. The results showed that the MLMs that assumed the INBs were exchangeable and had a common variance led to incorrect inferences. The MLMs that included covariates to allow for systematic differences across the centres, and estimated different variances in each centre, made more plausible assumptions, fitted the data better and led to more appropriate inferences. We conclude that the validity of assumptions underlying MLMs used in CEA need to be critically evaluated before reliable conclusions can be drawn. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Using queuing models to aid design and guide research effort for multimodality buried target detection systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malof, Jordan M.; Collins, Leslie M.

2016-05-01

Many remote sensing modalities have been developed for buried target detection (BTD), each one offering relative advantages over the others. There has been interest in combining several modalities into a single BTD system that benefits from the advantages of each constituent sensor. Recently an approach was developed, called multi-state management (MSM), that aims to achieve this goal by separating BTD system operation into discrete states, each with different sensor activity and system velocity. Additionally, a modeling approach, called Q-MSM, was developed to quickly analyze multi-modality BTD systems operating with MSM. This work extends previous work by demonstrating how Q-MSM modeling can be used to design BTD systems operating with MSM, and to guide research to yield the most performance benefits. In this work an MSM system is considered that combines a forward-looking infrared (FLIR) camera and a ground penetrating radar (GPR). Experiments are conducted using a dataset of real, field-collected, data which demonstrates how the Q-MSM model can be used to evaluate performance benefits of altering, or improving via research investment, various characteristics of the GPR and FLIR systems. Q-MSM permits fast analysis that can determine where system improvements will have the greatest impact, and can therefore help guide BTD research.
Influences on decision-making for undergoing plastic surgery: a mental models and quantitative assessment.

PubMed

Darisi, Tanya; Thorne, Sarah; Iacobelli, Carolyn

2005-09-01

Research was conducted to gain insight into potential clients' decisions to undergo plastic surgery, their perception of benefits and risks, their judgment of outcomes, and their selection of a plastic surgeon. Semistructured, open-ended interviews were conducted with 60 people who expressed interest in plastic surgery. Qualitative analysis revealed their "mental models" regarding influences on their decision to undergo plastic surgery and their choice of a surgeon. Interview results were used to design a Web-based survey in which 644 individuals considering plastic surgery responded. The desire for change was the most direct motivator to undergo plastic surgery. Improvements to physical well-being were related to emotional and social benefits. When prompted about risks, participants mentioned physical, emotional, and social risks. Surgeon selection was a critical influence on decisions to undergo plastic surgery. Participants gave considerable weight to personal consultation and believed that finding the "right" plastic surgeon would minimize potential risks. Findings from the Web-based survey were similar to the mental models interviews in terms of benefit ratings but differed in risk ratings and surgeon selection criteria. The mental models interviews revealed that interview participants were thoughtful about their decision to undergo plastic surgery and focused on finding the right plastic surgeon.
Prioritizing health system and disease burden factors: an evaluation of the net benefit of transferring health technology interventions to different districts in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Shamu, Shepherd; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Hongoro, Charles

2016-01-01

Health-care technologies (HCTs) play an important role in any country's health-care system. Zimbabwe's health-care system uses a lot of HCTs developed in other countries. However, a number of local factors have affected the absorption and use of these technologies. We therefore set out to test the hypothesis that the net benefit regression framework (NBRF) could be a helpful benefit testing model that enables assessment of intra-national variables in HCT transfer. We used an NBRF model to assess the benefits of transferring cost-effective technologies to different jurisdictions. We used the country's 57 administrative districts to proxy different jurisdictions. For the dependent variable, we combined the cost and effectiveness ratios with the districts' per capita health expenditure. The cost and effectiveness ratios were obtained from HIV/AIDS and malaria randomized controlled trials, which did either a prospective or retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. The independent variables were district demographic and socioeconomic determinants of health. The study showed that intra-national variation resulted in different net benefits of the same health technology intervention if implemented in different districts in Zimbabwe. The study showed that population data, health data, infrastructure, demographic and health-seeking behavior had significant effects on the net margin benefit for the different districts. The net benefits also differed in terms of magnitude as a result of the local factors. Net benefit testing using local data is a very useful tool for assessing the transferability and further adoption of HCTs developed elsewhere. However, adopting interventions with a positive net benefit should also not be an end in itself. Information on positive or negative net benefit could also be used to ascertain either the level of future savings that a technology can realize or the level of investment needed for the particular technology to become beneficial.
Tobacco Regulation and Cost-Benefit Analysis: How Should We Value Foregone Consumer Surplus?

PubMed

Levy, Helen G; Norton, Edward C; Smith, Jeffrey A

2018-01-01

Recent tobacco regulations proposed by the Food and Drug Administration have raised a thorny question: how should the cost-benefit analysis accompanying such policies value foregone consumer surplus associated with regulation-induced reductions in smoking? In a model with rational and fully informed consumers, this question is straightforward. There is disagreement, however, about whether consumers are rational and fully informed, and the literature offers little practical guidance about what approach the FDA should use if they are not. In this paper, we outline the history of the FDA's recent attempts to regulate cigarettes and other tobacco products and how they have valued foregone consumer surplus in cost-benefit analyses. We advocate replacing the approach used in most of this literature, which first calculates health gains associated with regulation and then "offsets" them by some factor reflecting consumer surplus losses, with a more general behavioral public finance framework for welfare analysis. This framework applies standard tools of welfare analysis to consumer demand that may be "biased" (that is, not necessarily rational and fully informed) without requiring specific assumptions about the reason for the bias. This framework would require estimates of both biased and unbiased consumer demand; we sketch an agenda to help develop these in the context of smoking. The use of this framework would substantially reduce the confusion currently surrounding welfare analysis of tobacco regulation.
Tobacco Regulation and Cost-Benefit Analysis: How Should We Value Foregone Consumer Surplus?

PubMed Central

Levy, Helen G.; Norton, Edward C.; Smith, Jeffrey A.

2016-01-01

Recent tobacco regulations proposed by the Food and Drug Administration have raised a thorny question: how should the cost-benefit analysis accompanying such policies value foregone consumer surplus associated with regulation-induced reductions in smoking? In a model with rational and fully informed consumers, this question is straightforward. There is disagreement, however, about whether consumers are rational and fully informed, and the literature offers little practical guidance about what approach the FDA should use if they are not. In this paper, we outline the history of the FDA’s recent attempts to regulate cigarettes and other tobacco products and how they have valued foregone consumer surplus in cost-benefit analyses. We advocate replacing the approach used in most of this literature, which first calculates health gains associated with regulation and then “offsets” them by some factor reflecting consumer surplus losses, with a more general behavioral public finance framework for welfare analysis. This framework applies standard tools of welfare analysis to consumer demand that may be “biased” (that is, not necessarily rational and fully informed) without requiring specific assumptions about the reason for the bias. This framework would require estimates of both biased and unbiased consumer demand; we sketch an agenda to help develop these in the context of smoking. The use of this framework would substantially reduce the confusion currently surrounding welfare analysis of tobacco regulation. PMID:29404381
Phase Two Feasibility Study for Software Safety Requirements Analysis Using Model Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turgeon, Gregory; Price, Petra

2010-01-01

A feasibility study was performed on a representative aerospace system to determine the following: (1) the benefits and limitations to using SCADE , a commercially available tool for model checking, in comparison to using a proprietary tool that was studied previously [1] and (2) metrics for performing the model checking and for assessing the findings. This study was performed independently of the development task by a group unfamiliar with the system, providing a fresh, external perspective free from development bias.

Disease management with ARIMA model in time series.

PubMed

Sato, Renato Cesar

2013-01-01

The evaluation of infectious and noninfectious disease management can be done through the use of a time series analysis. In this study, we expect to measure the results and prevent intervention effects on the disease. Clinical studies have benefited from the use of these techniques, particularly for the wide applicability of the ARIMA model. This study briefly presents the process of using the ARIMA model. This analytical tool offers a great contribution for researchers and healthcare managers in the evaluation of healthcare interventions in specific populations.
Nurse manager succession planning: A cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Phillips, Tracy; Evans, Jennifer L; Tooley, Stephanie; Shirey, Maria R

2018-03-01

This commentary presents a cost-benefit analysis to advocate for the use of succession planning to mitigate the problems ensuing from nurse manager turnover. An estimated 75% of nurse managers will leave the workforce by 2020. Many benefits are associated with proactively identifying and developing internal candidates. Fewer than 7% of health care organisations have implemented formal leadership succession planning programmes. A cost-benefit analysis of a formal succession-planning programme from one hospital illustrates the benefits of the programme in their organisation and can be replicated easily. Assumptions of nursing manager succession planning cost-benefit analysis are identified and discussed. The succession planning exemplar demonstrates the integration of cost-benefit analysis principles. Comparing the costs of a formal nurse manager succession planning strategy with the status quo results in a positive cost-benefit ratio. The implementation of a formal nurse manager succession planning programme effectively reduces replacement costs and time to transition into the new role. This programme provides an internal pipeline of future leaders who will be more successful than external candidates. Using an actual cost-benefit analysis equips nurse managers with valuable evidence depicting succession planning as a viable business strategy. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Cost-effectiveness analysis of treatments for metastatic pancreatic cancer based on PRODIGE and MPACT trials.

PubMed

Zhou, Jing; Zhao, Rongce; Wen, Feng; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Yifan; Tang, Ruilei; Chen, Hongdou; Zhang, Jian; Li, Qiu

2016-06-02

Fluorouracil, leucovorin, irinotecan, oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GEM-N) have shown a significant survival benefit for the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of FOLFIRINOX versus GEM-N for treating metastatic pancreatic cancer based on the PRODIGE and MPACT trials. A decision model was performed to compare FOLFIRINOX with GEM-N. Primary base case data were identified from PRODIGE and MPACT trials. Costs were estimated and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated at West China Hospital, Sichuan University, China. Survival benefits were reported in quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Finally, sensitive analysis was performed by varying potentially modiﬁable parameters in the model. The base-case analysis showed that FOLFIRINOX cost $37,203.75 and yielded a survival of 0.67 QALY, and GEM-N cost $32,080.59 and yielded a survival of 0.51 QALY in the entire treatment. Thus, the ICER of FOLFIRINOX versus GEM-N was $32,019.75 per QALY gained. The GEM-N regimen was more cost-effective compared with the FOLFIRINOX regimen for the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer from a Chinese perspective.
Comparison of three versions of Partin tables to predict final pathologic stage in a Chinese cohort: a decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Xiao, Wen-Jun; Ye, Ding-Wei; Yao, Xu-Dong; Zhang, Shi-Lin; Dai, Bo

2013-01-01

To compare Partin tables (PTs) 1997, 2001, and 2007 for their clinical applicability in a Chinese cohort based upon a decision curve analysis (DCA). Clinical and pathologic data of 264 consecutive Chinese patients with clinically localized prostate cancer were used. These patients underwent open radical prostatectomy between 2005 and 2011. DCA quantified the net benefit of different PT versions relating to specific threshold probabilities of established capsular penetration (ECP), seminal vesicle involvement (SVI), and lymph node involvement (LNI). Overall, ECP, SVI, and LNI were recorded in 23.1, 10.2, and 6.1%, respectively. When the threshold probability was below the prevalence for LNI and ECP predictions, the DCA favored the 2007 version versus the 1997 version for SVI. DCA indicates that for low threshold probability, decision models are useful to discriminate the performance differences of three PT versions, although net benefit differences were not apparent. For high threshold probability, there may not be an important benefit from the use of PTs and the current analysis cannot translate into meaningful net gains differences. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.
Physiological effects of diet mixing on consumer fitness: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lefcheck, Jonathan S; Whalen, Matthew A; Davenport, Theresa M; Stone, Joshua P; Duffy, J Emmett

2013-03-01

The degree of dietary generalism among consumers has important consequences for population, community, and ecosystem processes, yet the effects on consumer fitness of mixing food types have not been examined comprehensively. We conducted a meta-analysis of 161 peer-reviewed studies reporting 493 experimental manipulations of prey diversity to test whether diet mixing enhances consumer fitness based on the intrinsic nutritional quality of foods and consumer physiology. Averaged across studies, mixed diets conferred significantly higher fitness than the average of single-species diets, but not the best single prey species. More than half of individual experiments, however, showed maximal growth and reproduction on mixed diets, consistent with the predicted benefits of a balanced diet. Mixed diets including chemically defended prey were no better than the average prey type, opposing the prediction that a diverse diet dilutes toxins. Finally, mixed-model analysis showed that the effect of diet mixing was stronger for herbivores than for higher trophic levels. The generally weak evidence for the nutritional benefits of diet mixing in these primarily laboratory experiments suggests that diet generalism is not strongly favored by the inherent physiological benefits of mixing food types, but is more likely driven by ecological and environmental influences on consumer foraging.
Applying the Health Belief Model to college students' health behavior

PubMed Central

Kim, Hak-Seon; Ahn, Joo

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate how university students' nutrition beliefs influence their health behavioral intention. This study used an online survey engine (Qulatrics.com) to collect data from college students. Out of 253 questionnaires collected, 251 questionnaires (99.2%) were used for the statistical analysis. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) revealed that six dimensions, "Nutrition Confidence," "Susceptibility," "Severity," "Barrier," "Benefit," "Behavioral Intention to Eat Healthy Food," and "Behavioral Intention to do Physical Activity," had construct validity; Cronbach's alpha coefficient and composite reliabilities were tested for item reliability. The results validate that objective nutrition knowledge was a good predictor of college students' nutrition confidence. The results also clearly showed that two direct measures were significant predictors of behavioral intentions as hypothesized. Perceived benefit of eating healthy food and perceived barrier for eat healthy food to had significant effects on Behavioral Intentions and was a valid measurement to use to determine Behavioral Intentions. These findings can enhance the extant literature on the universal applicability of the model and serve as useful references for further investigations of the validity of the model within other health care or foodservice settings and for other health behavioral categories. PMID:23346306
Opportunities and pitfalls in clinical proof-of-concept: principles and examples.

PubMed

Chen, Chao

2018-04-01

Clinical proof-of-concept trials crucially inform major resource deployment decisions. This paper discusses several mechanisms for enhancing their rigour and efficiency. The importance of careful consideration when using a surrogate endpoint is illustrated; situational effectiveness of run-in patient enrichment is explored; a versatile tool is introduced to ensure a strong pharmacological underpinning; the benefits of dose-titration are revealed by simulation; and the importance of adequately scheduled observations is shown. The general process of model-based trial design and analysis is described and several examples demonstrate the value in historical data, simulation-guided design, model-based analysis and trial adaptation informed by interim analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
models of congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Biglino, Giovanni; Capelli, Claudio; Leaver, Lindsay-Kay; Schievano, Silvia; Taylor, Andrew M; Wray, Jo

2015-01-01

To develop a participatory approach in the evaluation of 3D printed patient-specific models of congenital heart disease (CHD) with different stakeholders who would potentially benefit from the technology (patients, parents, clinicians and nurses). Workshops, focus groups and teaching sessions were organised, targeting different stakeholders. Sessions involved displaying and discussing different 3D models of CHD. Model evaluation involved response counts from questionnaires and thematic analysis of audio-recorded discussions and written feedback. Stakeholders’ responses indicated the scope and potential for clinical translation of 3D models. As tangible, three-dimensional artefacts, these can have a role in communicative processes. Their patient-specific quality is also important in relation to individual characteristics of CHD. Patients indicated that 3D models can help them visualise ‘what’s going on inside’. Parents agreed that models can spark curiosity in young people. Clinicians indicated that teaching might be the most relevant application. Nurses agreed that 3D models improved their learning experience during a CHD course. Engagement of different stakeholders to evaluate 3D printing technology for CHD identified the potential of the models for improving patient– doctor communication, patient empowerment and training. A participatory approach could benefit the clinical evaluation and translation of 3D printing technology.
Prohibition, regulation or laissez faire: The policy trade-offs of cannabis policy.

PubMed

Rogeberg, Ole

2018-06-01

Trade-offs are central to the cannabis policy debate. Prohibition and strict regulation may help reduce the physical, mental and social harms of cannabis consumption, but at the cost of increasing the harms from illegal markets and reducing consumption benefits. An economic model clarifies how these costs and benefits relate to policy and connects them to observable prices and tax-levels given the assumptions of the analysis. These model- based arguments are related to the ongoing academic policy debate. While some arguments from this literature modify the interpretation of the model (e.g., due to dependence, cognitive biases and market structure), the literature often fails to appropriately account for the magnitude of the policy costs and benefits identified. Taking various caveats into account, the framework indicates that a strict regulation would likely be preferable to prohibition given current estimates of excess harms (externalities and internalities) from cannabis use. While cannabis prohibition appears difficult to justify within an economic regulatory framework, risks from industry influence, policy ratchet effects, and human "decision-making flaws" speak to the need for caution and strong regulation when implementing legal regimes. Copyright © 2018 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Dealing with Unknown Variables in Policy/Program Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagel, Stuart S.

1983-01-01

Threshold analysis (TA) is introduced as an evaluation model. TA converts unknown variables into questions as to whether a given benefit, cost, or success probability is more or less than a threshold, above which the proposed project would be profitable, and below which it would be unprofitable. (Author/PN)
Geothermal Research | Geothermal Technologies | NREL

Science.gov Websites

. Impact Analysis Conducting analyses to determine the viability of geothermal energy production and Hybrid Systems Exploring the potential benefits of combining geothermal with other renewable energy Designing new models and studying new techniques to increase the production of geothermal energy.
Incident Management, Fast-Trac, Phase Iib Deliverables, #20. The Model Analysis Report On The Benefits Of Scats In Alleviating The Impacts Of Incidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

FAST-TRAC : SELECTING THE MOST APPROPRIATE TRAFFIC CONTROL STRATEGY FOR INCIDENT CONGESTION MANAGEMENT CAN HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE RESULTING CONGESTION. THIS RESEARCH INVESTIGATED THE EFFECTIVENESSES OF SEVERAL CONTRO...
Estimating error cross-correlations in soil moisture data sets using extended collocation analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Consistent global soil moisture records are essential for studying the role of hydrologic processes within the larger earth system. Various studies have shown the benefit of assimilating satellite-based soil moisture data into water balance models or merging multi-source soil moisture retrievals int...
Health Care Analysis for the MCRMC Insurance Cost Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

demographically matched beneficiaries in civilian health care plans today in a PPO style plan 522 May 2015 FEHB  Largest employer-sponsored health benefit...Cost of treating Active Duty personnel  Implications of family earnings for plan choice  Availability of regional PPOs  Treatment of pharmacy
Bespoke program design for school-aged therapy disability service delivery.

PubMed

Weatherill, Pamela; Bahn, Susanne; Cooper, Trudi

2012-01-01

This article uses the evaluation of a school-aged therapy service for children with disabilities in Western Australia to investigate models of service delivery. The current literature on family-centered practice, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches, and 4 models of service are reviewed. The models include the life needs model, the relational goal-orientated model of optimal service delivery to children and families, the quality of life model, and the collaborative model of service delivery. Analysis of the data is presented together with a bespoke model of service delivery for children with disabilities, arguing that local contexts benefit from custom-made service design.
Cognitive task analysis: harmonizing tasks to human capacities.

PubMed

Neerincx, M A; Griffioen, E

1996-04-01

This paper presents the development of a cognitive task analysis that assesses the task load of jobs and provides indicators for the redesign of jobs. General principles of human task performance were selected and, subsequently, integrated into current task modelling techniques. The resulting cognitive task analysis centres around four aspects of task load: the number of actions in a period, the ratio between knowledge- and rule-based actions, lengthy uninterrupted actions, and momentary overloading. The method consists of three stages: (1) construction of a hierarchical task model, (2) a time-line analysis and task load assessment, and (3), if necessary, adjustment of the task model. An application of the cognitive task analysis in railway traffic control showed its benefits over the 'old' task load analysis of the Netherlands Railways. It provided a provisional standard for traffic control jobs, conveyed two load risks -- momentary overloading and underloading -- and resulted in proposals to satisfy the standard and to diminish the two load risk.
Using discrete choice experiments within a cost-benefit analysis framework: some considerations.

PubMed

McIntosh, Emma

2006-01-01

A great advantage of the stated preference discrete choice experiment (SPDCE) approach to economic evaluation methodology is its immense flexibility within applied cost-benefit analyses (CBAs). However, while the use of SPDCEs in healthcare has increased markedly in recent years there has been a distinct lack of equivalent CBAs in healthcare using such SPDCE-derived valuations. This article outlines specific issues and some practical suggestions for consideration relevant to the development of CBAs using SPDCE-derived benefits. The article shows that SPDCE-derived CBA can adopt recent developments in cost-effectiveness methodology including the cost-effectiveness plane, appropriate consideration of uncertainty, the net-benefit framework and probabilistic sensitivity analysis methods, while maintaining the theoretical advantage of the SPDCE approach. The concept of a cost-benefit plane is no different in principle to the cost-effectiveness plane and can be a useful tool for reporting and presenting the results of CBAs.However, there are many challenging issues to address for the advancement of CBA methodology using SPCDEs within healthcare. Particular areas for development include the importance of accounting for uncertainty in SPDCE-derived willingness-to-pay values, the methodology of SPDCEs in clinical trial settings and economic models, measurement issues pertinent to using SPDCEs specifically in healthcare, and the importance of issues such as consideration of the dynamic nature of healthcare and the resulting impact this has on the validity of attribute definitions and context.
On the next generation of reliability analysis tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, Philip S., IV; Leong, Frank; Gai, Eli

1987-01-01

The current generation of reliability analysis tools concentrates on improving the efficiency of the description and solution of the fault-handling processes and providing a solution algorithm for the full system model. The tools have improved user efficiency in these areas to the extent that the problem of constructing the fault-occurrence model is now the major analysis bottleneck. For the next generation of reliability tools, it is proposed that techniques be developed to improve the efficiency of the fault-occurrence model generation and input. Further, the goal is to provide an environment permitting a user to provide a top-down design description of the system from which a Markov reliability model is automatically constructed. Thus, the user is relieved of the tedious and error-prone process of model construction, permitting an efficient exploration of the design space, and an independent validation of the system's operation is obtained. An additional benefit of automating the model construction process is the opportunity to reduce the specialized knowledge required. Hence, the user need only be an expert in the system he is analyzing; the expertise in reliability analysis techniques is supplied.
Proof of concept and dose estimation with binary responses under model uncertainty.

PubMed

Klingenberg, B

2009-01-30

This article suggests a unified framework for testing Proof of Concept (PoC) and estimating a target dose for the benefit of a more comprehensive, robust and powerful analysis in phase II or similar clinical trials. From a pre-specified set of candidate models, we choose the ones that best describe the observed dose-response. To decide which models, if any, significantly pick up a dose effect, we construct the permutation distribution of the minimum P-value over the candidate set. This allows us to find critical values and multiplicity adjusted P-values that control the familywise error rate of declaring any spurious effect in the candidate set as significant. Model averaging is then used to estimate a target dose. Popular single or multiple contrast tests for PoC, such as the Cochran-Armitage, Dunnett or Williams tests, are only optimal for specific dose-response shapes and do not provide target dose estimates with confidence limits. A thorough evaluation and comparison of our approach to these tests reveal that its power is as good or better in detecting a dose-response under various shapes with many more additional benefits: It incorporates model uncertainty in PoC decisions and target dose estimation, yields confidence intervals for target dose estimates and extends to more complicated data structures. We illustrate our method with the analysis of a Phase II clinical trial. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Benefits of explicit urban parameterization in regional climate modeling to study climate and city interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniel, M.; Lemonsu, Aude; Déqué, M.; Somot, S.; Alias, A.; Masson, V.

2018-06-01

Most climate models do not explicitly model urban areas and at best describe them as rock covers. Nonetheless, the very high resolutions reached now by the regional climate models may justify and require a more realistic parameterization of surface exchanges between urban canopy and atmosphere. To quantify the potential impact of urbanization on the regional climate, and evaluate the benefits of a detailed urban canopy model compared with a simpler approach, a sensitivity study was carried out over France at a 12-km horizontal resolution with the ALADIN-Climate regional model for 1980-2009 time period. Different descriptions of land use and urban modeling were compared, corresponding to an explicit modeling of cities with the urban canopy model TEB, a conventional and simpler approach representing urban areas as rocks, and a vegetated experiment for which cities are replaced by natural covers. A general evaluation of ALADIN-Climate was first done, that showed an overestimation of the incoming solar radiation but satisfying results in terms of precipitation and near-surface temperatures. The sensitivity analysis then highlighted that urban areas had a significant impact on modeled near-surface temperature. A further analysis on a few large French cities indicated that over the 30 years of simulation they all induced a warming effect both at daytime and nighttime with values up to + 1.5 °C for the city of Paris. The urban model also led to a regional warming extending beyond the urban areas boundaries. Finally, the comparison to temperature observations available for Paris area highlighted that the detailed urban canopy model improved the modeling of the urban heat island compared with a simpler approach.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

PubMed

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local settings of drinking water systems. The model provides a clear and holistic structure for decisions related to microbial risk mitigation. To improve the decision model, we suggest to further develop the valuation and monetisation of health effects and to refine the propagation of uncertainties and variabilities between the included methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
The Effects of Revealed Information on Catastrophe Loss Projection Models' Characterization of Risk: Damage Vulnerability Evidence from Florida.

PubMed

Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F

2016-06-01

We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Progam benefits and emergency room visits for hypoglycaemia.

PubMed

Heflin, Colleen; Hodges, Leslie; Mueser, Peter

2017-05-01

The present study examines the connection between the timing and size of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits and the occurrence of emergency room (ER) visits for hypoglycaemia, a condition that is highly sensitive to short-term changes in nutritional intake. We used administrative data from Missouri SNAP and Medicaid to identify the timing of issuance and the benefit size of SNAP and the timing of ER claims for hypoglycaemia. We estimated the probability of submitting an ER claim for hypoglycaemia as a function of the calendar week, SNAP benefit week and the size of the SNAP benefit in models that controlled for individual demographic characteristics. Missouri SNAP caseload from January 2010 to December 2013 linked to adult Medicaid claims data for the same time period. ER claims submitted to Medicaid (n 6 508 061). The results indicated no evidence of a SNAP benefit cycle or monthly cycle to ER claims for hypoglycaemia. However, the analysis did find that ER claims for hypoglycaemia are related to the size of the SNAP benefit. These results suggest that more generous SNAP benefits help households avoid nutritional fluctuations in the quality and quantity of food that might result in low blood sugar, thus necessitating fewer ER visits for hypoglycaemia.
Perceived Benefits and Barriers of a Community-Based Diabetes Prevention and Management Program.

PubMed

Shawley-Brzoska, Samantha; Misra, Ranjita

2018-03-13

This study examined the perceptions of benefits of and barriers to participating in a community-based diabetes program to improve program effectiveness. The Diabetes Prevention and Management (DPM) program was a twenty-two session, 1-year program, modeled after the evidence-based National Diabetes Prevention Program and AADE7 Self-Care Behaviors framework. Community-based participatory research approach was used to culturally tailor the curriculum. Participants included overweight or obese adults with dysglycemia. A benefits and barriers survey was developed to gather information on participants' perception of the program, as well as information on demographics and health literacy levels. Eighty-nine adults participated in the DPM program (73% females; 62% diabetic; 77% had adequate health literacy); 79% of participants completed the benefits and barriers survey. Principal component analysis indicated two components representing benefits (Cronbach's α = 0.83) and barriers (α = 0.65). The majority perceived high benefits and low barriers to program participation; benefits included helpful interaction with health coach or program leader (73%), improved lifestyle modification (65%) due to the program, and satisfaction with the program (75%). Open-ended questions confirmed themes related to benefits of program participation, suggestion for programmatic improvements as well as barriers to participation. Participant feedback could be used to guide interventions and tailor future program implementation.
Perceived Benefits and Barriers of a Community-Based Diabetes Prevention and Management Program

PubMed Central

Shawley-Brzoska, Samantha; Misra, Ranjita

2018-01-01

This study examined the perceptions of benefits of and barriers to participating in a community-based diabetes program to improve program effectiveness. The Diabetes Prevention and Management (DPM) program was a twenty-two session, 1-year program, modeled after the evidence-based National Diabetes Prevention Program and AADE7 Self-Care Behaviors framework. Community-based participatory research approach was used to culturally tailor the curriculum. Participants included overweight or obese adults with dysglycemia. A benefits and barriers survey was developed to gather information on participants’ perception of the program, as well as information on demographics and health literacy levels. Eighty-nine adults participated in the DPM program (73% females; 62% diabetic; 77% had adequate health literacy); 79% of participants completed the benefits and barriers survey. Principal component analysis indicated two components representing benefits (Cronbach’s α = 0.83) and barriers (α = 0.65). The majority perceived high benefits and low barriers to program participation; benefits included helpful interaction with health coach or program leader (73%), improved lifestyle modification (65%) due to the program, and satisfaction with the program (75%). Open-ended questions confirmed themes related to benefits of program participation, suggestion for programmatic improvements as well as barriers to participation. Participant feedback could be used to guide interventions and tailor future program implementation. PMID:29534005
Low-Dimensional Statistics of Anatomical Variability via Compact Representation of Image Deformations.

PubMed

Zhang, Miaomiao; Wells, William M; Golland, Polina

2016-10-01

Using image-based descriptors to investigate clinical hypotheses and therapeutic implications is challenging due to the notorious "curse of dimensionality" coupled with a small sample size. In this paper, we present a low-dimensional analysis of anatomical shape variability in the space of diffeomorphisms and demonstrate its benefits for clinical studies. To combat the high dimensionality of the deformation descriptors, we develop a probabilistic model of principal geodesic analysis in a bandlimited low-dimensional space that still captures the underlying variability of image data. We demonstrate the performance of our model on a set of 3D brain MRI scans from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Our model yields a more compact representation of group variation at substantially lower computational cost than models based on the high-dimensional state-of-the-art approaches such as tangent space PCA (TPCA) and probabilistic principal geodesic analysis (PPGA).
Combining Water Quality and Cost-Benefit Analysis to Examine the Implications of Agricultural Best Management Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, N. S.; Easton, Z. M.; Lee, D. R.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2007-12-01

Nutrient runoff from agricultural fields threatens water quality and can impair habitats in many watersheds. Agencies consider these potential risks as they determine acceptable levels of nutrient loading. For example, in the New York City (NYC) watershed, the Environmental Protection Agency's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for phosphorus (P) has been set at 15μg P L-1 to protect against eutrophication and bacterial outbreaks. In the NYC watersheds agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) are the primary means to control nonpoint source P loading. BMPs include riparian buffers, filter strips, manure storage facilities, crop rotation, stripcropping, tree planting and nutrient management plans (NMPs). Water quality research on BMPs to date has included studies on site-specificity of different BMPs, short and long term BMP efficacy, and placement of BMPs with respect to critical source areas. A necessary complement to studies addressing water quality aspects of different BMPs are studies examining the cost-benefit aspects of BMPs. In general, there are installment, maintenance and opportunity costs associated with each BMP, and there are benefits, including cost share agreements between farmers and farm agencies, and increased efficiency of farm production and maintenance. Combining water quality studies and related cost-benefit analyses would help planners and watershed managers determine how best improve water quality. Our research examines the costs-benefit structure associated with BMP scenarios on a one-farm headwater watershed in the Catskill Mountains of NY. The different scenarios include "with and without" BMPs, combinations of BMPs, and different BMP placements across agricultural fields. The costs associated with each BMP scenarios are determined using information from farm agencies and watershed planning agencies. With these data we perform a cost-benefit analysis for the different BMP scenarios and couple the water quality modeling using the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model (Schneiderman et al., 2007) with the cost-benefit analysis to look at the specific water quality and economic consequences of different watershed management scenarios. The results of our study will be useful for planners and watershed managers in determining how best to reduce nonpoint source pollution in a cost-effective manner. References Schneiderman, E.M., T.S. Steenhuis, D.J. Thongs, Z.M. Easton, M.S. Zion, G.F. Mendoza, M.T. Walter, and A.C. Neal. 2007. Incorporating variable source area hydrology into curve number based watershed loading functions. Hydrol. Proc. (In Press).
Whither systems medicine?

PubMed Central

Apweiler, Rolf; Beissbarth, Tim; Berthold, Michael R; Blüthgen, Nils; Burmeister, Yvonne; Dammann, Olaf; Deutsch, Andreas; Feuerhake, Friedrich; Franke, Andre; Hasenauer, Jan; Hoffmann, Steve; Höfer, Thomas; Jansen, Peter LM; Kaderali, Lars; Klingmüller, Ursula; Koch, Ina; Kohlbacher, Oliver; Kuepfer, Lars; Lammert, Frank; Maier, Dieter; Pfeifer, Nico; Radde, Nicole; Rehm, Markus; Roeder, Ingo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Sax, Ulrich; Schmeck, Bernd; Schuppert, Andreas; Seilheimer, Bernd; Theis, Fabian J; Vera, Julio; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

2018-01-01

New technologies to generate, store and retrieve medical and research data are inducing a rapid change in clinical and translational research and health care. Systems medicine is the interdisciplinary approach wherein physicians and clinical investigators team up with experts from biology, biostatistics, informatics, mathematics and computational modeling to develop methods to use new and stored data to the benefit of the patient. We here provide a critical assessment of the opportunities and challenges arising out of systems approaches in medicine and from this provide a definition of what systems medicine entails. Based on our analysis of current developments in medicine and healthcare and associated research needs, we emphasize the role of systems medicine as a multilevel and multidisciplinary methodological framework for informed data acquisition and interdisciplinary data analysis to extract previously inaccessible knowledge for the benefit of patients. PMID:29497170
Benefit-harm analysis and charts for individualized and preference-sensitive prevention: example of low dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer.

PubMed

Puhan, Milo A; Yu, Tsung; Stegeman, Inge; Varadhan, Ravi; Singh, Sonal; Boyd, Cynthia M

2015-10-01

Clinical practice guidelines provide separate recommendations for different diseases that may be prevented or treated by the same intervention. Also, they commonly provide recommendations for entire populations but not for individuals. To address these two limitations, our aim was to conduct benefit-harm analyses for a wide range of individuals using the example of low dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer and to develop Benefit-Harm Charts that show the overall benefit-harm balance for individuals. We used quantitative benefit-harm modeling that included 16 outcomes to estimate the probability that low dose aspirin provides more benefits than harms for a wide range of men and women between 45 and 84 years of age and without a previous myocardial infarction, severe ischemic stroke, or cancer. We repeated the quantitative benefit-harm modeling for different combinations of age, sex, and outcome risks for severe ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, myocardial infarction, cancers, and severe gastrointestinal bleeds. The analyses considered weights for the outcomes, statistical uncertainty of the effects of aspirin, and death as a competing risk. We constructed Benefit-Harm Charts that show the benefit-harm balance for different combinations of outcome risks. The Benefit-Harm Charts ( http://www.benefit-harm-balance.com ) we have created show that the benefit-harm balance differs largely across a primary prevention population. Low dose aspirin is likely to provide more benefits than harms in men, elderly people, and in those at low risk for severe gastrointestinal bleeds. Individual preferences have a major impact on the benefit-harm balance. If, for example, it is a high priority for individuals to prevent stroke and severe cancers while severe gastrointestinal bleeds are deemed to be of little importance, the benefit-harm balance is likely to favor low dose aspirin for most individuals. Instead, if severe gastrointestinal bleeds are judged to be similarly important compared to the benefit outcomes, low dose aspirin is unlikely to provide more benefits than harms. Benefit-Harm Charts support individualized benefit-harm assessments and decision making. Similarly, individualized benefit-harm assessments may allow guideline developers to issue more finely granulated recommendations that reduce the risk of over- and underuse of interventions. The example of low dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer shows that it may be time for guideline developers to provide combined recommendations for different diseases that may be prevented or treated by the same intervention.
Interconnection Assessment Methodology and Cost Benefit Analysis for High-Penetration PV Deployment in the Arizona Public Service System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baggu, Murali; Giraldez, Julieta; Harris, Tom

In an effort to better understand the impacts of high penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) generators on distribution systems, Arizona Public Service and its partners completed a multi-year project to develop the tools and knowledge base needed to safely and reliably integrate high penetrations of utility- and residential-scale PV. Building upon the APS Community Power Project-Flagstaff Pilot, this project investigates the impact of PV on a representative feeder in northeast Flagstaff. To quantify and catalog the effects of the estimated 1.3 MW of PV that will be installed on the feeder (both smaller units at homes and large, centrally located systems),more » high-speed weather and electrical data acquisition systems and digital 'smart' meters were designed and installed to facilitate monitoring and to build and validate comprehensive, high-resolution models of the distribution system. These models are being developed to analyze the impacts of PV on distribution circuit protection systems (including coordination and anti-islanding), predict voltage regulation and phase balance issues, and develop volt/VAr control schemes. This paper continues from a paper presented at the 2014 IEEE PVSC conference that described feeder model evaluation and high penetration advanced scenario analysis, specifically feeder reconfiguration. This paper presents results from Phase 5 of the project. Specifically, the paper discusses tool automation; interconnection assessment methodology and cost benefit analysis.« less
NEURON and Python.

PubMed

Hines, Michael L; Davison, Andrew P; Muller, Eilif

2009-01-01

The NEURON simulation program now allows Python to be used, alone or in combination with NEURON's traditional Hoc interpreter. Adding Python to NEURON has the immediate benefit of making available a very extensive suite of analysis tools written for engineering and science. It also catalyzes NEURON software development by offering users a modern programming tool that is recognized for its flexibility and power to create and maintain complex programs. At the same time, nothing is lost because all existing models written in Hoc, including graphical user interface tools, continue to work without change and are also available within the Python context. An example of the benefits of Python availability is the use of the xml module in implementing NEURON's Import3D and CellBuild tools to read MorphML and NeuroML model specifications.
NEURON and Python

PubMed Central

Hines, Michael L.; Davison, Andrew P.; Muller, Eilif

2008-01-01

The NEURON simulation program now allows Python to be used, alone or in combination with NEURON's traditional Hoc interpreter. Adding Python to NEURON has the immediate benefit of making available a very extensive suite of analysis tools written for engineering and science. It also catalyzes NEURON software development by offering users a modern programming tool that is recognized for its flexibility and power to create and maintain complex programs. At the same time, nothing is lost because all existing models written in Hoc, including graphical user interface tools, continue to work without change and are also available within the Python context. An example of the benefits of Python availability is the use of the xml module in implementing NEURON's Import3D and CellBuild tools to read MorphML and NeuroML model specifications. PMID:19198661
An analysis of the benefits of ethnography design methods for product modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butlewski, M.; Misztal, A.; Belu, N.

2016-08-01

The essence of modelling is to reflect the studied piece of reality in such a way that best describes the selected elements of the designed system. A model is used in design to optimize the structure and parameters of the constructed object and is a tool for assessing the quality of construction, eliminating weak links and ensuring adequate safety components. In view of the aim of modelling, it can be divided into functional modelling, showing the complexity of the object, and reliability modelling, specifying its states at variable threshold values. In design, modelling allows for significant savings in resources that would otherwise be spent because of problems appearing at the prototype stage, but also during production or in the course of using the product. In the practice of ergonomic design many problems could be avoided if early enough in the design process the values of parameters and their relations would be taken into account through modelling. On the other hand, the modelling process can be costly and time-consuming to carry out, and against the currently pervasive lean production it is a highly undesirable factor. Therefore, the modelling process should be supported with the use of appropriate cognitive techniques namely ethnography design, which would determine inadequacies of existing models as well as indicate the equivalent conditions for modelling. The justification of the use of this technique results both from the possibility of providing additional information, as well as the opportunity to “test” the phenomena affecting the design process. Ergonomic modelling tests developed solutions towards their adaptation to users’ anthropometric, biomechanical and psychomotor characteristics, as well as behaviour patterns. However, knowledge of the latter and achieving a sufficient ergonomic and functional quality of proposed solutions often requires the use of the ethnography design approach. The aim of this article is to test the practical application of ethnography design methodology in product design and to analyse the benefits of its use. The analysis is based on effects of its application with the support of product design from various industries, along with a discussion of the method's limitations. Among benefits of ethnography design, the greatest proved to be providing knowledge of nonspecific user behaviour previously unknown to designers, which when rendered by models allowed to develop innovative solutions.
Benefit Analysis of Proposed Information Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

be evaluated in such an analysis. Different benefit comparison and user satisfaction methods are reviewed for their particular advantages and...Different benefit comparison and user satisfaction methods are reviewed for their particular advantages and disadvantages. A discussion is given on...determine the alternative that is the most advantageous to the government. Secondly, which benefit analysis methods are capable of calculating a
ROCKETSHIP: a flexible and modular software tool for the planning, processing and analysis of dynamic MRI studies.

PubMed

Barnes, Samuel R; Ng, Thomas S C; Santa-Maria, Naomi; Montagne, Axel; Zlokovic, Berislav V; Jacobs, Russell E

2015-06-16

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is a promising technique to characterize pathology and evaluate treatment response. However, analysis of DCE-MRI data is complex and benefits from concurrent analysis of multiple kinetic models and parameters. Few software tools are currently available that specifically focuses on DCE-MRI analysis with multiple kinetic models. Here, we developed ROCKETSHIP, an open-source, flexible and modular software for DCE-MRI analysis. ROCKETSHIP incorporates analyses with multiple kinetic models, including data-driven nested model analysis. ROCKETSHIP was implemented using the MATLAB programming language. Robustness of the software to provide reliable fits using multiple kinetic models is demonstrated using simulated data. Simulations also demonstrate the utility of the data-driven nested model analysis. Applicability of ROCKETSHIP for both preclinical and clinical studies is shown using DCE-MRI studies of the human brain and a murine tumor model. A DCE-MRI software suite was implemented and tested using simulations. Its applicability to both preclinical and clinical datasets is shown. ROCKETSHIP was designed to be easily accessible for the beginner, but flexible enough for changes or additions to be made by the advanced user as well. The availability of a flexible analysis tool will aid future studies using DCE-MRI. A public release of ROCKETSHIP is available at https://github.com/petmri/ROCKETSHIP .
Predictive Accuracy of the Liverpool Lung Project Risk Model for Stratifying Patients for Computed Tomography Screening for Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Raji, Olaide Y.; Duffy, Stephen W.; Agbaje, Olorunshola F.; Baker, Stuart G.; Christiani, David C.; Cassidy, Adrian; Field, John K.

2013-01-01

Background External validation of existing lung cancer risk prediction models is limited. Using such models in clinical practice to guide the referral of patients for computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer depends on external validation and evidence of predicted clinical benefit. Objective To evaluate the discrimination of the Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) risk model and demonstrate its predicted benefit for stratifying patients for CT screening by using data from 3 independent studies from Europe and North America. Design Case–control and prospective cohort study. Setting Europe and North America. Patients Participants in the European Early Lung Cancer (EUELC) and Harvard case–control studies and the LLP population-based prospective cohort (LLPC) study. Measurements 5-year absolute risks for lung cancer predicted by the LLP model. Results The LLP risk model had good discrimination in both the Harvard (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.76 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78]) and the LLPC (AUC, 0.82 [CI, 0.80 to 0.85]) studies and modest discrimination in the EUELC (AUC, 0.67 [CI, 0.64 to 0.69]) study. The decision utility analysis, which incorporates the harms and benefit of using a risk model to make clinical decisions, indicates that the LLP risk model performed better than smoking duration or family history alone in stratifying high-risk patients for lung cancer CT screening. Limitations The model cannot assess whether including other risk factors, such as lung function or genetic markers, would improve accuracy. Lack of information on asbestos exposure in the LLPC limited the ability to validate the complete LLP risk model. Conclusion Validation of the LLP risk model in 3 independent external data sets demonstrated good discrimination and evidence of predicted benefits for stratifying patients for lung cancer CT screening. Further studies are needed to prospectively evaluate model performance and evaluate the optimal population risk thresholds for initiating lung cancer screening. Primary Funding Source Roy Castle Lung Cancer Foundation. PMID:22910935
Benefits of detailed models of muscle activation and mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lehman, S. L.; Stark, L.

1981-01-01

Recent biophysical and physiological studies identified some of the detailed mechanisms involved in excitation-contraction coupling, muscle contraction, and deactivation. Mathematical models incorporating these mechanisms allow independent estimates of key parameters, direct interplay between basic muscle research and the study of motor control, and realistic model behaviors, some of which are not accessible to previous, simpler, models. The existence of previously unmodeled behaviors has important implications for strategies of motor control and identification of neural signals. New developments in the analysis of differential equations make the more detailed models feasible for simulation in realistic experimental situations.
Relating health and climate impacts to grid-scale emissions using adjoint sensitivity modeling for the Climate and Clean Air Coalition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henze, D. K.; Lacey, F.; Seltzer, M.; Vallack, H.; Kuylenstierna, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Anenberg, S.; Sasser, E.; Lee, C. J.; Martin, R.

2013-12-01

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) was initiated in 2012 to develop, understand and promote measures to reduce short lived climate forcers such as aerosol, ozone and methane. The Coalition now includes over 30 nations, and as a service to these nations is committed to providing a decision support toolkit that allows member nations to explore the benefits of a range of emissions mitigation measures in terms of the combined impacts on air quality and climate and so help in the development of their National Action Plans. Here we will present recent modeling work to support the development of the CCAC National Action Plans toolkit. Adjoint sensitivity analysis is presented as a means of efficiently relating air quality, climate and crop impacts back to changes in emissions from each species, sector and location at the grid-scale resolution of typical global air quality model applications. The GEOS-Chem adjoint model is used to estimate the damages per ton of emissions of PM2.5 related mortality, the impacts of ozone precursors on crops and ozone-related health effects, and the combined impacts of these species on regional surface temperature changes. We show how the benefits-per-emission vary spatially as a function of the surrounding environment, and how this impacts the overall benefit of sector-specific control strategies. We present initial findings for Bangladesh, as well as Mexico, Ghana and Colombia, some of the first countries to join the CCAC, and discuss general issues related to adjoint-based metrics for quantifying air quality and climate co-benefits.
Improved Traceability of a Small Satellite Mission Concept to Requirements Using Model Based System Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reil, Robin L.

2014-01-01

Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has recently been gaining significant support as a means to improve the "traditional" document-based systems engineering (DBSE) approach to engineering complex systems. In the spacecraft design domain, there are many perceived and propose benefits of an MBSE approach, but little analysis has been presented to determine the tangible benefits of such an approach (e.g. time and cost saved, increased product quality). This paper presents direct examples of how developing a small satellite system model can improve traceability of the mission concept to its requirements. A comparison of the processes and approaches for MBSE and DBSE is made using the NASA Ames Research Center SporeSat CubeSat mission as a case study. A model of the SporeSat mission is built using the Systems Modeling Language standard and No Magic's MagicDraw modeling tool. The model incorporates mission concept and requirement information from the mission's original DBSE design efforts. Active dependency relationships are modeled to demonstrate the completeness and consistency of the requirements to the mission concept. Anecdotal information and process-duration metrics are presented for both the MBSE and original DBSE design efforts of SporeSat.

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