Effect of xylitol versus sorbitol: a quantitative systematic review of clinical trials.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2012-08-01

This study aimed to appraise, within the context of tooth caries, the current clinical evidence and its risk for bias regarding the effects of xylitol in comparison with sorbitol. Databases were searched for clinical trials to 19 March 2011. Inclusion criteria required studies to: test a caries-related primary outcome; compare the effects of xylitol with those of sorbitol; describe a clinical trial with two or more arms, and utilise a prospective study design. Articles were excluded if they did not report computable data or did not follow up test and control groups in the same way. Individual dichotomous and continuous datasets were extracted from accepted articles. Selection and performance/detection bias were assessed. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate attrition bias. Egger's regression and funnel plotting were used to investigate risk for publication bias. Nine articles were identified. Of these, eight were accepted and one was excluded. Ten continuous and eight dichotomous datasets were extracted. Because of high clinical heterogeneity, no meta-analysis was performed. Most of the datasets favoured xylitol, but this was not consistent. The accepted trials may be limited by selection bias. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate a high risk for attrition bias. The funnel plot and Egger's regression results suggest a low publication bias risk. External fluoride exposure and stimulated saliva flow may have confounded the measured anticariogenic effect of xylitol. The evidence identified in support of xylitol over sorbitol is contradictory, is at high risk for selection and attrition bias and may be limited by confounder effects. Future high-quality randomised controlled trials are needed to show whether xylitol has a greater anticariogenic effect than sorbitol. © 2012 FDI World Dental Federation.

Probabilistic bias analysis in pharmacoepidemiology and comparative effectiveness research: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hunnicutt, Jacob N; Ulbricht, Christine M; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Lapane, Kate L

2016-12-01

We systematically reviewed pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies that use probabilistic bias analysis to quantify the effects of systematic error including confounding, misclassification, and selection bias on study results. We found articles published between 2010 and October 2015 through a citation search using Web of Science and Google Scholar and a keyword search using PubMed and Scopus. Eligibility of studies was assessed by one reviewer. Three reviewers independently abstracted data from eligible studies. Fifteen studies used probabilistic bias analysis and were eligible for data abstraction-nine simulated an unmeasured confounder and six simulated misclassification. The majority of studies simulating an unmeasured confounder did not specify the range of plausible estimates for the bias parameters. Studies simulating misclassification were in general clearer when reporting the plausible distribution of bias parameters. Regardless of the bias simulated, the probability distributions assigned to bias parameters, number of simulated iterations, sensitivity analyses, and diagnostics were not discussed in the majority of studies. Despite the prevalence and concern of bias in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies, probabilistic bias analysis to quantitatively model the effect of bias was not widely used. The quality of reporting and use of this technique varied and was often unclear. Further discussion and dissemination of the technique are warranted. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Asymmetry of Reinforcement and Punishment in Human Choice

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Erin B; Newland, M Christopher

2008-01-01

The hypothesis that a penny lost is valued more highly than a penny earned was tested in human choice. Five participants clicked a computer mouse under concurrent variable-interval schedules of monetary reinforcement. In the no-punishment condition, the schedules arranged monetary gain. In the punishment conditions, a schedule of monetary loss was superimposed on one response alternative. Deviations from generalized matching using the free parameters c (sensitivity to reinforcement) and log k (bias) were compared in the no-punishment and punishment conditions. The no-punishment conditions yielded values of log k that approximated zero for all participants, indicating no bias. In the punishment condition, values of log k deviated substantially from zero, revealing a 3-fold bias toward the unpunished alternative. Moreover, the c parameters were substantially smaller in punished conditions. The values for bias and sensitivity under punishment did not change significantly when the measure of net reinforcers (gains minus losses) was applied to the analysis. These results mean that punishment reduced the sensitivity of behavior to reinforcement and biased performance toward the unpunished alternative. We concluded that a single punisher subtracted more value than a single reinforcer added, indicating an asymmetry in the law of effect. PMID:18422016

Reward sensitivity predicts ice cream-related attentional bias assessed by inattentional blindness.

PubMed

Li, Xiaoming; Tao, Qian; Fang, Ya; Cheng, Chen; Hao, Yangyang; Qi, Jianjun; Li, Yu; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Xiaochu

2015-06-01

The cognitive mechanism underlying the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving is unknown. The present study explored the mechanism by examining the role of reward sensitivity in attentional bias toward ice cream cues. Forty-nine college students who displayed high level of ice cream craving (HICs) and 46 who displayed low level of ice cream craving (LICs) performed an inattentional blindness (IB) task which was used to assess attentional bias for ice cream. In addition, reward sensitivity and coping style were assessed by the Behavior Inhibition System/Behavior Activation System Scales and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. Results showed significant higher identification rate of the critical stimulus in the HICs than LICs, suggesting greater attentional bias for ice cream in the HICs. It was indicated that attentional bias for food cues persisted even under inattentional condition. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the attentional bias and reward sensitivity after controlling for coping style, and reward sensitivity predicted attentional bias for food cues. The mediation analyses showed that attentional bias mediated the relationship between reward sensitivity and food craving. Those findings suggest that the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving may be attributed to attentional bias for food-related cues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved Correction of Misclassification Bias With Bootstrap Imputation.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2018-07-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative database research can create bias due to misclassification. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) can correct for this bias, requires only code sensitivity and specificity, but may return invalid results. Bootstrap imputation (BI) can also address misclassification bias but traditionally requires multivariate models to accurately estimate disease probability. This study compared misclassification bias correction using QBA and BI. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 100,000 hospitalized patients. Prevalence of severe renal failure in 86 patient strata and its association with 43 covariates was determined and compared with results in which renal failure status was determined using diagnostic codes (sensitivity 71.3%, specificity 96.2%). Differences in results (misclassification bias) were then corrected with QBA or BI (using progressively more complex methods to estimate disease probability). In total, 7.4% of patients had severe renal failure. Imputing disease status with diagnostic codes exaggerated prevalence estimates [median relative change (range), 16.6% (0.8%-74.5%)] and its association with covariates [median (range) exponentiated absolute parameter estimate difference, 1.16 (1.01-2.04)]. QBA produced invalid results 9.3% of the time and increased bias in estimates of both disease prevalence and covariate associations. BI decreased misclassification bias with increasingly accurate disease probability estimates. QBA can produce invalid results and increase misclassification bias. BI avoids invalid results and can importantly decrease misclassification bias when accurate disease probability estimates are used.

Eliminating Survivor Bias in Two-stage Instrumental Variable Estimators.

PubMed

Vansteelandt, Stijn; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric

2018-07-01

Mendelian randomization studies commonly focus on elderly populations. This makes the instrumental variables analysis of such studies sensitive to survivor bias, a type of selection bias. A particular concern is that the instrumental variable conditions, even when valid for the source population, may be violated for the selective population of individuals who survive the onset of the study. This is potentially very damaging because Mendelian randomization studies are known to be sensitive to bias due to even minor violations of the instrumental variable conditions. Interestingly, the instrumental variable conditions continue to hold within certain risk sets of individuals who are still alive at a given age when the instrument and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the exposure, and moreover, the exposure and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the hazard of death. In this article, we will exploit this property to derive a two-stage instrumental variable estimator for the effect of exposure on mortality, which is insulated against the above described selection bias under these additivity assumptions.

Diagnostic performance of contrast-enhanced spectral mammography: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tagliafico, Alberto Stefano; Bignotti, Bianca; Rossi, Federica; Signori, Alessio; Sormani, Maria Pia; Valdora, Francesca; Calabrese, Massimo; Houssami, Nehmat

2016-08-01

To estimate sensitivity and specificity of CESM for breast cancer diagnosis. Systematic review and meta-analysis of the accuracy of CESM in finding breast cancer in highly selected women. We estimated summary receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivity and specificity according to quality criteria with QUADAS-2. Six hundred four studies were retrieved, 8 of these reporting on 920 patients with 994 lesions, were eligible for inclusion. Estimated sensitivity from all studies was: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-1.00). Specificity was estimated from six studies reporting raw data: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.38-0.77). The majority of studies were scored as at high risk of bias due to the very selected populations. CESM has a high sensitivity but very low specificity. The source studies were based on highly selected case series and prone to selection bias. High-quality studies are required to assess the accuracy of CESM in unselected cases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

Antiviral treatment of Bell's palsy based on baseline severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Turgeon, Ricky D; Wilby, Kyle J; Ensom, Mary H H

2015-06-01

We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of antiviral agents on complete recovery of Bell's palsy. We searched CENTRAL, Embase, MEDLINE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, and sources of unpublished literature to November 1, 2014. Primary and secondary outcomes were complete and satisfactory recovery, respectively. To evaluate statistical heterogeneity, we performed subgroup analysis of baseline severity of Bell's palsy and between-study sensitivity analyses based on risk of allocation and detection bias. The 10 included randomized controlled trials (2419 patients; 807 with severe Bell's palsy at onset) had variable risk of bias, with 9 trials having a high risk of bias in at least 1 domain. Complete recovery was not statistically significantly greater with antiviral use versus no antiviral use in the random-effects meta-analysis of 6 trials (relative risk, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.16; I(2) = 65%). Conversely, random-effects meta-analysis of 9 trials showed a statistically significant difference in satisfactory recovery (relative risk, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.18; I(2) = 63%). Response to antiviral agents did not differ visually or statistically between patients with severe symptoms at baseline and those with milder disease (test for interaction, P = .11). Sensitivity analyses did not show a clear effect of bias on outcomes. Antiviral agents are not efficacious in increasing the proportion of patients with Bell's palsy who achieved complete recovery, regardless of baseline symptom severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear bias analysis and correction of microwave temperature sounder observations for FY-3C meteorological satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Taiyang; Lv, Rongchuan; Jin, Xu; Li, Hao; Chen, Wenxin

2018-01-01

The nonlinear bias analysis and correction of receiving channels in Chinese FY-3C meteorological satellite Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS) is a key technology of data assimilation for satellite radiance data. The thermal-vacuum chamber calibration data acquired from the MWTS can be analyzed to evaluate the instrument performance, including radiometric temperature sensitivity, channel nonlinearity and calibration accuracy. Especially, the nonlinearity parameters due to imperfect square-law detectors will be calculated from calibration data and further used to correct the nonlinear bias contributions of microwave receiving channels. Based upon the operational principles and thermalvacuum chamber calibration procedures of MWTS, this paper mainly focuses on the nonlinear bias analysis and correction methods for improving the calibration accuracy of the important instrument onboard FY-3C meteorological satellite, from the perspective of theoretical and experimental studies. Furthermore, a series of original results are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and significance of the methods.

Evolution of Indian land surface biases in the seasonal hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Turner, Andrew G.; Woolnoug, Steve J.; Martin, Gill

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the development of biases over the Indian region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. These mean state biases lead to strong precipitation errors during the monsoon over the subcontinent. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with variety of observations to assess the evolution of the mean state biases over the Indian land surface. All biases within the model develop rapidly, particularly surface heat and radiation flux biases. Strong biases are present within the model climatology from pre-monsoon (May) in the surface heat fluxes over India (higher sensible / lower latent heat fluxes) when compared to observed estimates. The early evolution of such biases prior to onset rains suggests possible problems with the land surface scheme or soil moisture errors. Further analysis of soil moisture over the Indian land surface shows a dry bias present from the beginning of the hindcasts during the pre-monsoon. This lasts until the after the monsoon develops (July) after which there is a wet bias over the region. Soil moisture used for initialization of the model also shows a dry bias when compared against the observed estimates, which may lead to the same in the model. The early dry bias in the model may reduce local moisture availability through surface evaporation and thus may possibly limit precipitation recycling. On this premise, we identify and test the sensitivity of the monsoon in the model against higher soil moisture forcing. We run sensitivity experiments initiated using gridpoint-wise annual soil moisture maxima over the Indian land surface as input for experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model. We plan to analyse the response of the sensitivity experiments on seasonal forecasting of surface heat fluxes and subsequently monsoon precipitation.

Biased and less sensitive: A gamified approach to delay discounting in heroin addiction.

PubMed

Scherbaum, Stefan; Haber, Paul; Morley, Kirsten; Underhill, Dylan; Moustafa, Ahmed A

2018-03-01

People with addiction will continue to use drugs despite adverse long-term consequences. We hypothesized (a) that this deficit persists during substitution treatment, and (b) that this deficit might be related not only to a desire for immediate gratification, but also to a lower sensitivity for optimal decision making. We investigated how individuals with a history of heroin addiction perform (compared to healthy controls) in a virtual reality delay discounting task. This novel task adds to established measures of delay discounting an assessment of the optimality of decisions, especially in how far decisions are influenced by a general choice bias and/or a reduced sensitivity to the relative value of the two alternative rewards. We used this measure of optimality to apply diffusion model analysis to the behavioral data to analyze the interaction between decision optimality and reaction time. The addiction group consisted of 25 patients with a history of heroin dependency currently participating in a methadone maintenance program; the control group consisted of 25 healthy participants with no history of substance abuse, who were recruited from the Western Sydney community. The patient group demonstrated greater levels of delay discounting compared to the control group, which is broadly in line with previous observations. Diffusion model analysis yielded a reduced sensitivity for the optimality of a decision in the patient group compared to the control group. This reduced sensitivity was reflected in lower rates of information accumulation and higher decision criteria. Increased discounting in individuals with heroin addiction is related not only to a generally increased bias to immediate gratification, but also to reduced sensitivity for the optimality of a decision. This finding is in line with other findings about the sensitivity of addicts in distinguishing optimal from nonoptimal choice options.

Cardiothoracic ratio for prediction of left ventricular dilation: a systematic review and pooled analysis.

PubMed

Loomba, Rohit S; Shah, Parinda H; Nijhawan, Karan; Aggarwal, Saurabh; Arora, Rohit

2015-03-01

Increased cardiothoracic ratio noted on chest radiographs often prompts concern and further evaluation with additional imaging. This study pools available data assessing the utility of cardiothoracic ratio in predicting left ventricular dilation. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify studies comparing cardiothoracic ratio by chest x-ray to left ventricular dilation by echocardiography. Electronic databases were used to identify studies which were then assessed for quality and bias, with those with adequate quality and minimal bias ultimately being included in the pooled analysis. The pooled data were used to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of cardiomegaly in predicting left ventricular dilation. A total of six studies consisting of 466 patients were included in this analysis. Cardiothoracic ratio had 83.3% sensitivity, 45.4% specificity, 43.5% positive predictive value and 82.7% negative predictive value. When a secondary analysis was conducted with a pediatric study excluded, a total of five studies consisting of 371 patients were included. Cardiothoracic ratio had 86.2% sensitivity, 25.2% specificity, 42.5% positive predictive value and 74.0% negative predictive value. Cardiothoracic ratio as determined by chest radiograph is sensitive but not specific for identifying left ventricular dilation. Cardiothoracic ratio also has a strong negative predictive value for identifying left ventricular dilation.

Propensity Score Analysis Comparing Videothoracoscopic Lobectomy With Thoracotomy: A French Nationwide Study.

PubMed

Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Delpy, Jean-Philippe; Orsini, Bastien; Gossot, Dominique; Baste, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Pascal; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

2016-04-01

Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy has recently become the recommended approach for stage I non-small cell lung cancer. However, these guidelines are not based on any large randomized control trial. Our study used propensity scores and a sensitivity analysis to compare VATS lobectomy with open thoracotomy. From 2005 to 2012, 24,811 patients (95.1%) were operated on by open thoracotomy and 1,278 (4.9%) by VATS. The end points were 30-day postoperative death, postoperative complications, hospital stay, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Two propensity scores analyses were performed: matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting, and one sensitivity analysis to unmask potential hidden bias. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare "high-risk" with "low-risk" patients. Results are reported by odds ratios or hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Postoperative death was not significantly reduced by VATS whatever the analysis. Concerning postoperative complications, VATS significantly decreased the occurrence of atelectasis and pneumopathy with both analysis methods, but there were no differences in the occurrence of other postoperative complications. VATS did not provide a benefit for high-risk patients. The VATS approach decreased the hospital length of stay from 2.4 days (95% confidence interval, -1.7 to -3 days) to -4.68 days (95% confidence interval, -8.5 to 0.9 days). Overall survival and disease-free survival were not influenced by the surgical approach. The sensitivity analysis showed potential biases. The results must be interpreted carefully because of the differences observed according to the propensity scores method used. A multicenter randomized controlled trial is necessary to limit the biases. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A method for sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of measurement error in multiple exposure variables using external validation data.

PubMed

Agogo, George O; van der Voet, Hilko; van 't Veer, Pieter; Ferrari, Pietro; Muller, David C; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Bamia, Christina; Braaten, Tonje; Knüppel, Sven; Johansson, Ingegerd; van Eeuwijk, Fred A; Boshuizen, Hendriek C

2016-10-13

Measurement error in self-reported dietary intakes is known to bias the association between dietary intake and a health outcome of interest such as risk of a disease. The association can be distorted further by mismeasured confounders, leading to invalid results and conclusions. It is, however, difficult to adjust for the bias in the association when there is no internal validation data. We proposed a method to adjust for the bias in the diet-disease association (hereafter, association), due to measurement error in dietary intake and a mismeasured confounder, when there is no internal validation data. The method combines prior information on the validity of the self-report instrument with the observed data to adjust for the bias in the association. We compared the proposed method with the method that ignores the confounder effect, and with the method that ignores measurement errors completely. We assessed the sensitivity of the estimates to various magnitudes of measurement error, error correlations and uncertainty in the literature-reported validation data. We applied the methods to fruits and vegetables (FV) intakes, cigarette smoking (confounder) and all-cause mortality data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Using the proposed method resulted in about four times increase in the strength of association between FV intake and mortality. For weakly correlated errors, measurement error in the confounder minimally affected the hazard ratio estimate for FV intake. The effect was more pronounced for strong error correlations. The proposed method permits sensitivity analysis on measurement error structures and accounts for uncertainties in the reported validity coefficients. The method is useful in assessing the direction and quantifying the magnitude of bias in the association due to measurement errors in the confounders.

A Perceptual Repetition Blindness Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hochhaus, Larry; Johnston, James C.; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Before concluding Repetition Blindness is a perceptual phenomenon, alternative explanations based on memory retrieval problems and report bias must be rejected. Memory problems were minimized by requiring a judgment about only a single briefly displayed field. Bias and sensitivity effects were empirically measured with an ROC-curve analysis method based on confidence ratings. Results from five experiments support the hypothesis that Repetition Blindness can be a perceptual phenomenon.

Applying Recursive Sensitivity Analysis to Multi-Criteria Decision Models to Reduce Bias in Defense Cyber Engineering Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-28

techniques such as regression analysis, correlation, and multicollinearity assessment to identify the change and error on the input to the model...between many of the independent or predictor variables, the issue of multicollinearity may arise [18]. VII. SUMMARY Accurate decisions concerning

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

PubMed Central

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

2012-01-01

There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

Implications of CO Bias for Ozone and Methane Lifetime in a CCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Duncan, Bryan Neal; Yegorova, Elena; Douglass, Anne

2013-01-01

A low bias in carbon monoxide compared to observations at high latitudes is a common feature of chemistry climate models. CO bias can both indicate and contribute to a bias in modeled OH and methane lifetime. This study examines possible causes of CO bias in the ACCMIP simulation of the GEOSCCM, and considers how attributing the CO bias to uncertainty in CO emissions versus biases in other constituents impacts the relationship between CO bias and methane lifetime. We use a simplified model of CO tagged by source with specified OH to quantify the sensitivity of the CO bias to changes in CO emissions or OH concentration, comparing the modeled CO to surface and MOPITT observations. The simplified model shows that decreasing OH in the northern hemisphere removes most of the global mean and inter-hemispheric bias in surface CO. We then use results from this analysis to explore how adjusting CO sources in the CCM impacts the concentrations of ozone, OH and methane. The CCM simulation also exhibits biases in ozone and water vapor compared to observations. We use a parameterized CO-OH-CH4 model that takes ozone and water vapor as inputs to the parameterization to examine whether correcting water and ozone biases can alter OH enough to remove the CO bias. Through this analysis, we aim to better quantify the relationship between CO bias and model biases in ozone concentrations and methane lifetime.

The comprehensive summary of surgical versus non-surgical treatment for obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Cheng, Ji; Gao, Jinbo; Shuai, Xiaoming; Wang, Guobin; Tao, Kaixiong

2016-06-28

Bariatric surgery has emerged as a competitive strategy for obese patients. However, its comparative efficacy against non-surgical treatments remains ill-defined, especially among nonseverely obese crowds. Therefore, we implemented a systematic review and meta-analysis in order for an academic addition to current literatures. Literatures were retrieved from databases of PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE and Cochrane Library. Randomized trials comparing surgical with non-surgical therapies for obesity were included. A Revised Jadad's Scale and Risk of Bias Summary were employed for methodological assessment. Subgroups analysis, sensitivity analysis and publication bias assessment were respectively performed in order to find out the source of heterogeneity, detect the outcome stability and potential publication bias. 25 randomized trials were eligibly included, totally comprising of 1194 participants. Both groups displayed well comparability concerning baseline parameters (P > 0.05). The pooled results of primary endpoints (weight loss and diabetic remission) revealed a significant advantage among surgical patients rather than those receiving non-surgical treatments (P < 0.05). Furthermore, except for certain cardiovascular indicators, bariatric surgery was superior to conventional arms in terms of metabolic secondary parameters (P < 0.05). Additionally, the pooled outcomes were confirmed to be stable by sensitivity analysis. Although Egger's test (P < 0.01) and Begg's test (P<0.05) had reported the presence of publication bias among included studies, "Trim-and-Fill" method verified that the pooled outcomes remained stable. Bariatric surgery is a better therapeutic option for weight loss, irrespective of follow-up duration, surgical techniques and obesity levels.

Sequential vs simultaneous revascularization in patients undergoing liver transplantation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Jia-Zhong; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jin-Long; Lu, Le; Zhang, Ya-Fei; Lu, Hong-Wei; Li, Yi-Ming

2015-06-14

We undertook this meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between revascularization and outcomes after liver transplantation. A literature search was performed using MeSH and key words. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Jadad Score and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Heterogeneity was evaluated by the χ(2) and I (2) tests. The risk of publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger's test, and the risk of bias was assessed using a domain-based assessment tool. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by reanalyzing the data using different statistical approaches. Six studies with a total of 467 patients were included. Ischemic-type biliary lesions were significantly reduced in the simultaneous revascularization group compared with the sequential revascularization group (OR = 4.97, 95%CI: 2.45-10.07; P < 0.00001), and intensive care unit (ICU) days were decreased (MD = 2.00, 95%CI: 0.55-3.45; P = 0.007) in the simultaneous revascularization group. Although warm ischemia time was prolonged in simultaneous revascularization group (MD = -25.84, 95%CI: -29.28-22.40; P < 0.00001), there were no significant differences in other outcomes between sequential and simultaneous revascularization groups. Assessment of the risk of bias showed that the methods of random sequence generation and blinding might have been a source of bias. The sensitivity analysis strengthened the reliability of the results of this meta-analysis. The results of this study indicate that simultaneous revascularization in liver transplantation may reduce the incidence of ischemic-type biliary lesions and length of stay of patients in the ICU.

Measurement Consistency from Magnetic Resonance Images

PubMed Central

Chung, Dongjun; Chung, Moo K.; Durtschi, Reid B.; Lindell, R. Gentry; Vorperian, Houri K.

2010-01-01

Rationale and Objectives In quantifying medical images, length-based measurements are still obtained manually. Due to possible human error, a measurement protocol is required to guarantee the consistency of measurements. In this paper, we review various statistical techniques that can be used in determining measurement consistency. The focus is on detecting a possible measurement bias and determining the robustness of the procedures to outliers. Materials and Methods We review correlation analysis, linear regression, Bland-Altman method, paired t-test, and analysis of variance (ANOVA). These techniques were applied to measurements, obtained by two raters, of head and neck structures from magnetic resonance images (MRI). Results The correlation analysis and the linear regression were shown to be insufficient for detecting measurement inconsistency. They are also very sensitive to outliers. The widely used Bland-Altman method is a visualization technique so it lacks the numerical quantification. The paired t-test tends to be sensitive to small measurement bias. On the other hand, ANOVA performs well even under small measurement bias. Conclusion In almost all cases, using only one method is insufficient and it is recommended to use several methods simultaneously. In general, ANOVA performs the best. PMID:18790405

Bias analysis to improve monitoring an HIV epidemic and its response: approach and application to a survey of female sex workers in Iran.

PubMed

Mirzazadeh, Ali; Mansournia, Mohammad-Ali; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Navadeh, Soodabeh; McFarland, Willi; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Mohammad, Kazem

2013-10-01

We present probabilistic and Bayesian techniques to correct for bias in categorical and numerical measures and empirically apply them to a recent survey of female sex workers (FSW) conducted in Iran. We used bias parameters from a previous validation study to correct estimates of behaviours reported by FSW. Monte-Carlo Sensitivity Analysis and Bayesian bias analysis produced point and simulation intervals (SI). The apparent and corrected prevalence differed by a minimum of 1% for the number of 'non-condom use sexual acts' (36.8% vs 35.8%) to a maximum of 33% for 'ever associated with a venue to sell sex' (35.5% vs 68.0%). The negative predictive value of the questionnaire for 'history of STI' and 'ever associated with a venue to sell sex' was 36.3% (95% SI 4.2% to 69.1%) and 46.9% (95% SI 6.3% to 79.1%), respectively. Bias-adjusted numerical measures of behaviours increased by 0.1 year for 'age at first sex act for money' to 1.5 for 'number of sexual contacts in last 7 days'. The 'true' estimates of most behaviours are considerably higher than those reported and the related SIs are wider than conventional CIs. Our analysis indicates the need for and applicability of bias analysis in surveys, particularly in stigmatised settings.

Verification and classification bias interactions in diagnostic test accuracy studies for fine-needle aspiration biopsy.

PubMed

Schmidt, Robert L; Walker, Brandon S; Cohen, Michael B

2015-03-01

Reliable estimates of accuracy are important for any diagnostic test. Diagnostic accuracy studies are subject to unique sources of bias. Verification bias and classification bias are 2 sources of bias that commonly occur in diagnostic accuracy studies. Statistical methods are available to estimate the impact of these sources of bias when they occur alone. The impact of interactions when these types of bias occur together has not been investigated. We developed mathematical relationships to show the combined effect of verification bias and classification bias. A wide range of case scenarios were generated to assess the impact of bias components and interactions on total bias. Interactions between verification bias and classification bias caused overestimation of sensitivity and underestimation of specificity. Interactions had more effect on sensitivity than specificity. Sensitivity was overestimated by at least 7% in approximately 6% of the tested scenarios. Specificity was underestimated by at least 7% in less than 0.1% of the scenarios. Interactions between verification bias and classification bias create distortions in accuracy estimates that are greater than would be predicted from each source of bias acting independently. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

[Implication of inverse-probability weighting method in the evaluation of diagnostic test with verification bias].

PubMed

Kang, Leni; Zhang, Shaokai; Zhao, Fanghui; Qiao, Youlin

2014-03-01

To evaluate and adjust the verification bias existed in the screening or diagnostic tests. Inverse-probability weighting method was used to adjust the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic tests, with an example of cervical cancer screening used to introduce the Compare Tests package in R software which could be implemented. Sensitivity and specificity calculated from the traditional method and maximum likelihood estimation method were compared to the results from Inverse-probability weighting method in the random-sampled example. The true sensitivity and specificity of the HPV self-sampling test were 83.53% (95%CI:74.23-89.93)and 85.86% (95%CI: 84.23-87.36). In the analysis of data with randomly missing verification by gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity calculated by traditional method were 90.48% (95%CI:80.74-95.56)and 71.96% (95%CI:68.71-75.00), respectively. The adjusted sensitivity and specificity under the use of Inverse-probability weighting method were 82.25% (95% CI:63.11-92.62) and 85.80% (95% CI: 85.09-86.47), respectively, whereas they were 80.13% (95%CI:66.81-93.46)and 85.80% (95%CI: 84.20-87.41) under the maximum likelihood estimation method. The inverse-probability weighting method could effectively adjust the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test when verification bias existed, especially when complex sampling appeared.

Comparative Efficacy of Tongxinluo Capsule and Beta-Blockers in Treating Angina Pectoris: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Jia, Yongliang; Leung, Siu-wai

2015-11-01

There have been no systematic reviews, let alone meta-analyses, of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing tongxinluo capsule (TXL) and beta-blockers in treating angina pectoris. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of TXL and beta-blockers in treating angina pectoris by a meta-analysis of eligible RCTs. The RCTs comparing TXL with beta-blockers (including metoprolol) in treating angina pectoris were searched and retrieved from databases including PubMed, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, and WanFang Data. Eligible RCTs were selected according to prespecified criteria. Meta-analysis was performed on the odds ratios (OR) of symptomatic and electrocardiographic (ECG) improvements after treatment. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, meta-regression, and publication biases analysis were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the results. Seventy-three RCTs published between 2000 and 2014 with 7424 participants were eligible. Overall ORs comparing TXL with beta-blockers were 3.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.97-3.89; p<0.0001) for symptomatic improvement and 2.63 (95% CI, 2.29-3.02; p<0.0001) for ECG improvement. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis found no statistically significant dependence of overall ORs on specific study characteristics except efficacy criteria. Meta-regression found no significant except sample sizes for data on symptomatic improvement. Publication biases were statistically significant. TXL seems to be more effective than beta-blockers in treating angina pectoris, on the basis of the eligible RCTs. Further RCTs are warranted to reduce publication bias and verify efficacy.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of psychomotor effects of mobile phone electromagnetic fields.

PubMed

Valentini, Elia; Ferrara, Michele; Presaghi, Fabio; De Gennaro, Luigi; Gennaro, Luigi De; Curcio, Giuseppe

2010-10-01

Over the past 10 years there has been increasing concern about the possible behavioural effects of mobile phone use. This systematic review and meta-analysis focuses on studies published since 1999 on the human cognitive and performance effects of mobile phone-related electromagnetic fields (EMF). PubMed, Biomed, Medline, Biological Sciences, PsychInfo, PsycARTICLES, Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management, Neurosciences Abstracts and Web of Science professional databases were searched and 24 studies selected for meta-analysis. Each study had to have at least one psychomotor measurement result as a main outcome. Data were analysed using standardised mean difference (SMD) as the effect size measure. Results Only three tasks (2-back, 3-back and simple reaction time (SRT)) displayed significant heterogeneity, but after studies with extreme SMD were excluded using sensitivity analysis, the statistical significance disappeared (χ(2)(7)=1.63, p=0.20; χ(2)(6)=1.00, p=0.32; χ(2)(10)=14.04, p=0.17, respectively). Following sensitivity analysis, the effect of sponsorship and publication bias were assessed. Meta-regression indicated a significant effect (b1/40.12, p<0.05) only for the 2-back task with mixed funding (industry and public/charity). Funnel plot inspection revealed a significant publication bias only for two cognitive tasks: SRT (Begg's rank correlation r=0.443; Egger's test b=-0.652) and the subtraction task (Egger's test b=-0.687). Mobile phone-like EMF do not seem to induce cognitive and psychomotor effects. Nonetheless, the existence of sponsorship and publication biases should encourage WHO intervention to develop official research standards and guidelines. In addition, future research should address critical and neglected issues such as investigation of repeated, intensive and chronic exposures, especially in highly sensitive populations such as children.

Reward sensitivity, decisional bias, and metacognitive deficits in cocaine drug addiction.

PubMed

Balconi, Michela; Finocchiaro, Roberta; Campanella, Salvatore

2014-01-01

The present research explored the effect of reward sensitivity bias and metacognitive deficits on substance use disorder (SUD) in the decision-making process. The behavioral activation system (BAS) was used as a predictive marker of dysfunctional behavior during the Iowa gambling task (IGT). We also tried to relate this motivational system bias to self-reported metacognitive measures (self-knowledge, strategic planning, flexibility, and efficacy) in the decision processes. Thirty-four SUD participants (cocaine dependent) and 39 participants in the control group underwent the IGT. The SUD group was associated with a poorer performance on the IGT and a dysfunctional metacognition ability (unrealistic representation). An increase in the reward sensitivity (higher BAS, BAS reward responsiveness, and BAS reward) was observed in the SUD group compared with the control group and explained (through a regression analysis) the main behavioral deficits. More generally, an increase in the BAS reward responsiveness may be considered a predictive measure of risk-taking and dysfunctional behavior, not only in pathological (SUD) individuals, but also in subclinical individuals (controls). We discuss the likely cognitive, brain, and neurotransmitter contributions to this phenomenon.

A selection model for accounting for publication bias in a full network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mavridis, Dimitris; Welton, Nicky J; Sutton, Alex; Salanti, Georgia

2014-12-30

Copas and Shi suggested a selection model to explore the potential impact of publication bias via sensitivity analysis based on assumptions for the probability of publication of trials conditional on the precision of their results. Chootrakool et al. extended this model to three-arm trials but did not fully account for the implications of the consistency assumption, and their model is difficult to generalize for complex network structures with more than three treatments. Fitting these selection models within a frequentist setting requires maximization of a complex likelihood function, and identification problems are common. We have previously presented a Bayesian implementation of the selection model when multiple treatments are compared with a common reference treatment. We now present a general model suitable for complex, full network meta-analysis that accounts for consistency when adjusting results for publication bias. We developed a design-by-treatment selection model to describe the mechanism by which studies with different designs (sets of treatments compared in a trial) and precision may be selected for publication. We fit the model in a Bayesian setting because it avoids the numerical problems encountered in the frequentist setting, it is generalizable with respect to the number of treatments and study arms, and it provides a flexible framework for sensitivity analysis using external knowledge. Our model accounts for the additional uncertainty arising from publication bias more successfully compared to the standard Copas model or its previous extensions. We illustrate the methodology using a published triangular network for the failure of vascular graft or arterial patency. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sensitivity analysis for linear structural equation models, longitudinal mediation with latent growth models and blended learning in biostatistics education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Adam John

In chapter 1, we consider the biases that may arise when an unmeasured confounder is omitted from a structural equation model (SEM) and sensitivity analysis techniques to correct for such biases. We give an analysis of which effects in an SEM are and are not biased by an unmeasured confounder. It is shown that a single unmeasured confounder will bias not just one but numerous effects in an SEM. We present sensitivity analysis techniques to correct for biases in total, direct, and indirect effects when using SEM analyses, and illustrate these techniques with a study of aging and cognitive function. In chapter 2, we consider longitudinal mediation with latent growth curves. We define the direct and indirect effects using counterfactuals and consider the assumptions needed for identifiability of those effects. We develop models with a binary treatment/exposure followed by a model where treatment/exposure changes with time allowing for treatment/exposure-mediator interaction. We thus formalize mediation analysis with latent growth curve models using counterfactuals, makes clear the assumptions and extends these methods to allow for exposure mediator interactions. We present and illustrate the techniques with a study on Multiple Sclerosis(MS) and depression. In chapter 3, we report on a pilot study in blended learning that took place during the Fall 2013 and Summer 2014 semesters here at Harvard. We blended the traditional BIO 200: Principles of Biostatistics and created ID 200: Principles of Biostatistics and epidemiology. We used materials from the edX course PH207x: Health in Numbers: Quantitative Methods in Clinical & Public Health Research and used. These materials were used as a video textbook in which students would watch a given number of these videos prior to class. Using surveys as well as exam data we informally assess these blended classes from the student's perspective as well as a comparison of these students with students in another course, BIO 201: Introduction to Statistical Methods in Fall 2013 as well as students from BIO 200 in Fall semesters of 1992 and 1993. We then suggest improvements upon our original course designs and follow up with an informal look at how these implemented changes affected the second offering of the newly blended ID 200 in Summer 2014.

Tunable reverse-biased graphene/silicon heterojunction Schottky diode sensor.

PubMed

Singh, Amol; Uddin, Ahsan; Sudarshan, Tangali; Koley, Goutam

2014-04-24

A new chemical sensor based on reverse-biased graphene/Si heterojunction diode has been developed that exhibits extremely high bias-dependent molecular detection sensitivity and low operating power. The device takes advantage of graphene's atomically thin nature, which enables molecular adsorption on its surface to directly alter graphene/Si interface barrier height, thus affecting the junction current exponentially when operated in reverse bias and resulting in ultrahigh sensitivity. By operating the device in reverse bias, the work function of graphene, and hence the barrier height at the graphene/Si heterointerface, can be controlled by the bias magnitude, leading to a wide tunability of the molecular detection sensitivity. Such sensitivity control is also possible by carefully selecting the graphene/Si heterojunction Schottky barrier height. Compared to a conventional graphene amperometric sensor fabricated on the same chip, the proposed sensor demonstrated 13 times higher sensitivity for NO₂ and 3 times higher for NH₃ in ambient conditions, while consuming ∼500 times less power for same magnitude of applied voltage bias. The sensing mechanism based on heterojunction Schottky barrier height change has been confirmed using capacitance-voltage measurements. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The use of multiple imputation method for the validation of 24-h food recalls by part-time observation of dietary intake in school.

PubMed

Kupek, Emil; de Assis, Maria Alice A

2016-09-01

External validation of food recall over 24 h in schoolchildren is often restricted to eating events in schools and is based on direct observation as the reference method. The aim of this study was to estimate the dietary intake out of school, and consequently the bias in such research design based on only part-time validated food recall, using multiple imputation (MI) conditioned on the information on child age, sex, BMI, family income, parental education and the school attended. The previous-day, web-based questionnaire WebCAAFE, structured as six meals/snacks and thirty-two foods/beverage, was answered by a sample of 7-11-year-old Brazilian schoolchildren (n 602) from five public schools. Food/beverage intake recalled by children was compared with the records provided by trained observers during school meals. Sensitivity analysis was performed with artificial data emulating those recalled by children on WebCAAFE in order to evaluate the impact of both differential and non-differential bias. Estimated bias was within ±30 % interval for 84·4 % of the thirty-two foods/beverages evaluated in WebCAAFE, and half of the latter reached statistical significance (P<0·05). Rarely (<3 %) consumed dietary items were often under-reported (fish/seafood, vegetable soup, cheese bread, French fries), whereas some of those most frequently reported (meat, bread/biscuits, fruits) showed large overestimation. Compared with the analysis restricted to fully validated data, MI reduced differential bias in sensitivity analysis but the bias still remained large in most cases. MI provided a suitable statistical framework for part-time validation design of dietary intake over six daily eating events.

Sequential vs simultaneous revascularization in patients undergoing liver transplantation: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Wang, Jia-Zhong; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jin-Long; Lu, Le; Zhang, Ya-Fei; Lu, Hong-Wei; Li, Yi-Ming

2015-01-01

AIM: We undertook this meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between revascularization and outcomes after liver transplantation. METHODS: A literature search was performed using MeSH and key words. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Jadad Score and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Heterogeneity was evaluated by the χ2 and I2 tests. The risk of publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger’s test, and the risk of bias was assessed using a domain-based assessment tool. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by reanalyzing the data using different statistical approaches. RESULTS: Six studies with a total of 467 patients were included. Ischemic-type biliary lesions were significantly reduced in the simultaneous revascularization group compared with the sequential revascularization group (OR = 4.97, 95%CI: 2.45-10.07; P < 0.00001), and intensive care unit (ICU) days were decreased (MD = 2.00, 95%CI: 0.55-3.45; P = 0.007) in the simultaneous revascularization group. Although warm ischemia time was prolonged in simultaneous revascularization group (MD = -25.84, 95%CI: -29.28-22.40; P < 0.00001), there were no significant differences in other outcomes between sequential and simultaneous revascularization groups. Assessment of the risk of bias showed that the methods of random sequence generation and blinding might have been a source of bias. The sensitivity analysis strengthened the reliability of the results of this meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that simultaneous revascularization in liver transplantation may reduce the incidence of ischemic-type biliary lesions and length of stay of patients in the ICU. PMID:26078582

Observability Analysis of a MEMS INS/GPS Integration System with Gyroscope G-Sensitivity Errors

PubMed Central

Fan, Chen; Hu, Xiaoping; He, Xiaofeng; Tang, Kanghua; Luo, Bing

2014-01-01

Gyroscopes based on micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) technology suffer in high-dynamic applications due to obvious g-sensitivity errors. These errors can induce large biases in the gyroscope, which can directly affect the accuracy of attitude estimation in the integration of the inertial navigation system (INS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). The observability determines the existence of solutions for compensating them. In this paper, we investigate the observability of the INS/GPS system with consideration of the g-sensitivity errors. In terms of two types of g-sensitivity coefficients matrix, we add them as estimated states to the Kalman filter and analyze the observability of three or nine elements of the coefficient matrix respectively. A global observable condition of the system is presented and validated. Experimental results indicate that all the estimated states, which include position, velocity, attitude, gyro and accelerometer bias, and g-sensitivity coefficients, could be made observable by maneuvering based on the conditions. Compared with the integration system without compensation for the g-sensitivity errors, the attitude accuracy is raised obviously. PMID:25171122

Observability analysis of a MEMS INS/GPS integration system with gyroscope G-sensitivity errors.

PubMed

Fan, Chen; Hu, Xiaoping; He, Xiaofeng; Tang, Kanghua; Luo, Bing

2014-08-28

Gyroscopes based on micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) technology suffer in high-dynamic applications due to obvious g-sensitivity errors. These errors can induce large biases in the gyroscope, which can directly affect the accuracy of attitude estimation in the integration of the inertial navigation system (INS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). The observability determines the existence of solutions for compensating them. In this paper, we investigate the observability of the INS/GPS system with consideration of the g-sensitivity errors. In terms of two types of g-sensitivity coefficients matrix, we add them as estimated states to the Kalman filter and analyze the observability of three or nine elements of the coefficient matrix respectively. A global observable condition of the system is presented and validated. Experimental results indicate that all the estimated states, which include position, velocity, attitude, gyro and accelerometer bias, and g-sensitivity coefficients, could be made observable by maneuvering based on the conditions. Compared with the integration system without compensation for the g-sensitivity errors, the attitude accuracy is raised obviously.

Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

2009-01-01

Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

Social Interpretation Bias in Children and Adolescents with Anxiety Disorders: Psychometric Examination of the Self-report of Ambiguous Social Situations for Youth (SASSY) Scale.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Araceli; Rozenman, Michelle; Langley, Audra K; Kendall, Philip C; Ginsburg, Golda S; Compton, Scott; Walkup, John T; Birmaher, Boris; Albano, Anne Marie; Piacentini, John

2017-06-01

Anxiety disorders are among the most common mental health problems in youth, and faulty interpretation bias has been positively linked to anxiety severity, even within anxiety-disordered youth. Quick, reliable assessment of interpretation bias may be useful in identifying youth with certain types of anxiety or assessing changes on cognitive bias during intervention. This study examined the factor structure, reliability, and validity of the Self-report of Ambiguous Social Situations for Youth (SASSY) scale, a self-report measure developed to assess interpretation bias in youth. Participants (N=488, age 7 to 17) met diagnostic criteria for Social Phobia, Generalized Anxiety Disorder, and/or Separation Anxiety Disorder. An exploratory factor analysis was performed on baseline data from youth participating in a large randomized clinical trial. Exploratory factor analysis yielded two factors (Accusation/Blame, Social Rejection). The SASSY full scale and Social Rejection factor demonstrated adequate internal consistency, convergent validity with social anxiety, and discriminant validity as evidenced by non-significant correlations with measures of non-social anxiety. Further, the SASSY Social Rejection factor accurately distinguished children and adolescents with Social Phobia from those with other anxiety disorders, supporting its criterion validity, and revealed sensitivity to changes with treatment. Given the relevance to youth with social phobia, pre- and post-intervention data were examined for youth social phobia to test sensitivity to treatment effects; results suggested that SASSY scores reduced for treatment responders. Findings suggest the potential utility of the SASSY Social Rejection factor as a quick, reliable, and efficient way of assessing interpretation bias in anxious youth, particularly as related to social concerns, in research and clinical settings.

Bias-corrected diagnostic performance of the naked-eye single-tube red-cell osmotic fragility test (NESTROFT): an effective screening tool for beta-thalassemia.

PubMed

Mamtani, Manju; Jawahirani, Anil; Das, Kishor; Rughwani, Vinky; Kulkarni, Hemant

2006-08-01

It is being increasingly recognized that a majority of the countries in the thalassemia-belt need a cost-effective screening program as the first step towards control of thalassemia. Although the naked eye single tube red cell osmotic fragility test (NESTROFT) has been considered to be a very effective screening tool for beta-thalassemia trait, assessment of its diagnostic performance has been affected with the reference test- and verification-bias. Here, we set out to provide estimates of sensitivity and specificity of NESTROFT corrected for these potential biases. We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic test evaluation study using data from 1563 subjects from Central India with a high prevalence of beta-thalassemia. We used latent class modelling after ensuring its validity to account for the reference test bias and global sensitivity analysis to control the verification bias. We also compared the results of latent class modelling with those of five discriminant indexes. We observed that across a range of cut-offs for the mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and the hemoglobin A2 (HbA2) concentration the average sensitivity and specificity of NESTROFT obtained from latent class modelling was 99.8 and 83.7%, respectively. These estimates were comparable to those characterizing the diagnostic performance of HbA2, which is considered by many as the reference test to detect beta-thalassemia. After correction for the verification bias these estimates were 93.4 and 97.2%, respectively. Combined with the inexpensive and quick disposition of NESTROFT, these results strongly support its candidature as a screening tool-especially in the resource-poor and high-prevalence settings.

Characterization of a Boron Carbide Heterojunction Neutron Detector

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-24

owing to a constant SRC in BC. As previously discussed, the BC is taken as fully depleted (2 μm) at all biases . The bias dependence noted in UMKC#1...sensitivity shown below 3.8 eV. A general trend also shows higher sensitivity at lower biases . For this reason, zero bias detection was not included... dependence consistent with semiconductor physics below ~ -7 V. The bias dependence that is evident in these parameters at > -7 V indicates that the

Diagnostic accuracy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound in assessing the therapeutic response to radio frequency ablation for liver tumors: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xuan, Min; Zhou, Fengsheng; Ding, Yan; Zhu, Qiaoying; Dong, Ji; Zhou, Hao; Cheng, Jun; Jiang, Xiao; Wu, Pengxi

2018-04-01

To review the diagnostic accuracy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) used to detect residual or recurrent liver tumors after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). This technique uses contrast-enhanced computer tomography or/and contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as the gold standard of investigation. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and COCHRANE were systematically searched for all potentially eligible studies comparing CEUS with the reference standard that follows RFA. Risk of bias and applicability concerns were addressed by adopting the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Pooled point estimates for sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) with 95% CI were computed before plotting the sROC (summary receiver operating characteristic) curve. Meta-regression and subgroup analysis were used to identify the source of the heterogeneity that was detected. Publication bias was evaluated using Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. Ten eligible studies on 1162 lesions that occurred between 2001 and 2016 were included in the final analysis. The quality of the included studies assessed by the QUADAS-2 tool was considered reasonable. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of CEUS in detecting residual or recurrent liver tumors had the following values: 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.94) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.00), respectively. Overall DOR was 420.10 (95% CI 142.30-1240.20). The sources of heterogeneity could not be precisely identified by meta-regression or subgroup analysis. No evidence of publication bias was found. This study confirmed that CEUS exhibits high sensitivity and specificity in assessing therapeutic responses to RFA for liver tumors.

Who is More Affected by Ozone Pollution? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Dominici, Francesca

2014-01-01

Ozone is associated with adverse health; however, less is known about vulnerable/sensitive populations, which we refer to as sensitive populations. We systematically reviewed epidemiologic evidence (1988–2013) regarding sensitivity to mortality or hospital admission from short-term ozone exposure. We performed meta-analysis for overall associations by age and sex; assessed publication bias; and qualitatively assessed sensitivity to socioeconomic indicators, race/ethnicity, and air conditioning. The search identified 2,091 unique papers, with 167 meeting inclusion criteria (73 on mortality and 96 on hospitalizations and emergency department visits, including 2 examining both mortality and hospitalizations). The strongest evidence for ozone sensitivity was for age. Per 10-parts per billion increase in daily 8-hour ozone concentration, mortality risk for younger persons, at 0.60% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40, 0.80), was statistically lower than that for older persons, at 1.27% (95% CI: 0.76, 1.78). Findings adjusted for publication bias were similar. Limited/suggestive evidence was found for higher associations among women; mortality risks were 0.39% (95% CI: −0.22, 1.00) higher than those for men. We identified strong evidence for higher associations with unemployment or lower occupational status and weak evidence of sensitivity for racial/ethnic minorities and persons with low education, in poverty, or without central air conditioning. Findings show that some populations, especially the elderly, are particularly sensitive to short-term ozone exposure. PMID:24872350

Some More Sensitive Measures of Sensitivity and Response Bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, J. D.

1998-01-01

In this article, the author proposes a new pair of sensitivity and response bias indices and compares them to other measures currently available, including d' and Beta of signal detection theory. Unlike d' and Beta, these new performance measures do not depend on specific distributional assumptions or assumptions about the transformation from stimulus information to a discrimination judgment with simulated and empirical data, the new sensitivity index is shown to be more accurate than d' and 16 other indices when these measures are used to compare the sensitivity levels of 2 experimental conditions. Results from a perceptual discrimination experiment demonstrate the feasibility of the new distribution-free bias index and suggest that biases of the type defined within the signal detection theory framework (i.e., the placement of a decision criterion) do not exist, even under an asymmetric payoff manipulation.

Simulation-based sensitivity analysis for non-ignorably missing data.

PubMed

Yin, Peng; Shi, Jian Q

2017-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is popular in dealing with missing data problems particularly for non-ignorable missingness, where full-likelihood method cannot be adopted. It analyses how sensitively the conclusions (output) may depend on assumptions or parameters (input) about missing data, i.e. missing data mechanism. We call models with the problem of uncertainty sensitivity models. To make conventional sensitivity analysis more useful in practice we need to define some simple and interpretable statistical quantities to assess the sensitivity models and make evidence based analysis. We propose a novel approach in this paper on attempting to investigate the possibility of each missing data mechanism model assumption, by comparing the simulated datasets from various MNAR models with the observed data non-parametrically, using the K-nearest-neighbour distances. Some asymptotic theory has also been provided. A key step of this method is to plug in a plausibility evaluation system towards each sensitivity parameter, to select plausible values and reject unlikely values, instead of considering all proposed values of sensitivity parameters as in the conventional sensitivity analysis method. The method is generic and has been applied successfully to several specific models in this paper including meta-analysis model with publication bias, analysis of incomplete longitudinal data and mean estimation with non-ignorable missing data.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the GFR MOX Fuel Subassembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lüley, J.; Vrban, B.; Čerba, Š.; Haščík, J.; Nečas, V.; Pelloni, S.

2014-04-01

We performed sensitivity and uncertainty analysis as well as benchmark similarity assessment of the MOX fuel subassembly designed for the Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor (GFR) as a representative material of the core. Material composition was defined for each assembly ring separately allowing us to decompose the sensitivities not only for isotopes and reactions but also for spatial regions. This approach was confirmed by direct perturbation calculations for chosen materials and isotopes. Similarity assessment identified only ten partly comparable benchmark experiments that can be utilized in the field of GFR development. Based on the determined uncertainties, we also identified main contributors to the calculation bias.

Immortal time bias: a frequently unrecognized threat to validity in the evaluation of postoperative radiotherapy.

PubMed

Park, Henry S; Gross, Cary P; Makarov, Danil V; Yu, James B

2012-08-01

To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORT vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immortal Time Bias: A Frequently Unrecognized Threat to Validity in the Evaluation of Postoperative Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Henry S.; Gross, Cary P.; Makarov, Danil V.

2012-08-01

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Methods and Materials: First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORTmore » vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Results: Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Conclusions: Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias.« less

Alternative mechanisms for regulating racial responses according to internal vs external cues.

PubMed

Amodio, David M; Kubota, Jennifer T; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Devine, Patricia G

2006-06-01

Personal (internal) and normative (external) impetuses for regulating racially biased behaviour are well-documented, yet the extent to which internally and externally driven regulatory processes arise from the same mechanism is unknown. Whereas the regulation of race bias according to internal cues has been associated with conflict-monitoring processes and activation of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC), we proposed that responses regulated according to external cues to respond without prejudice involves mechanisms of error-perception, a process associated with rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC) activity. We recruited low-prejudice participants who reported high or low sensitivity to non-prejudiced norms, and participants completed a stereotype inhibition task in private or public while electroencephalography was recorded. Analysis of event-related potentials revealed that the error-related negativity component, linked to dACC activity, predicted behavioural control of bias across conditions, whereas the error-perception component, linked to rACC activity, predicted control only in public among participants sensitive to external pressures to respond without prejudice.

Assessing implicit gender bias in Medical Student Performance Evaluations.

PubMed

Axelson, Rick D; Solow, Catherine M; Ferguson, Kristi J; Cohen, Michael B

2010-09-01

For medical schools, the increasing presence of women makes it especially important that potential sources of gender bias be identified and removed from student evaluation methods. Our study looked for patterns of gender bias in adjective data used to inform our Medical Student Performance Evaluations (MSPEs). Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to model the latent structure of the adjectives attributed to students (n = 657) and to test for systematic scoring errors by gender. Gender bias was evident in two areas: (a) women were more likely than comparable men to be described as ''compassionate,'' ''sensitive,'' and ''enthusiastic'' and (b) men were more likely than comparable women to be seen as ''quick learners.'' The gender gap in ''quick learner'' attribution grows with increasing student proficiency; men's rate of increase is over twice that of women's. Technical and nontechnical approaches for ameliorating the impact of gender bias on student recommendations are suggested.

Zero bias thermally stimulated currents in synthetic diamond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, R.; Miglio, S.; Bruzzi, M.; Bogani, F.; De Sio, A.; Pace, E.

2009-06-01

Zero bias thermally stimulated currents (ZBTSCs) have been observed in single crystal high pressure high temperature (HPHT) and polycrystalline chemical vapor deposited (pCVD) diamond films. The ZBTSC technique is characterized by an increased sensitivity with respect to a standard TSC analysis. Due to the absence of the thermally activated background current, new TSC peaks have been observed in both HPHT and pCVD diamond films, related to shallow activation energies usually obscured by the emission of the dominant impurities. The ZBTSC peaks are explained in terms of defect discharge in the nonequilibrium potential distribution created by a nonuniform traps filling at the metal-diamond junctions. The electric field due to the charged defects has been estimated in a quasizero bias TSC experiment by applying an external bias.

Triangles in ROC space: History and theory of "nonparametric" measures of sensitivity and response bias.

PubMed

Macmillan, N A; Creelman, C D

1996-06-01

Can accuracy and response bias in two-stimulus, two-response recognition or detection experiments be measured nonparametrically? Pollack and Norman (1964) answered this question affirmatively for sensitivity, Hodos (1970) for bias: Both proposed measures based on triangular areas in receiver-operating characteristic space. Their papers, and especially a paper by Grier (1971) that provided computing formulas for the measures, continue to be heavily cited in a wide range of content areas. In our sample of articles, most authors described triangle-based measures as making fewer assumptions than measures associated with detection theory. However, we show that statistics based on products or ratios of right triangle areas, including a recently proposed bias index and a not-yetproposed but apparently plausible sensitivity index, are consistent with a decision process based on logistic distributions. Even the Pollack and Norman measure, which is based on non-right triangles, is approximately logistic for low values of sensitivity. Simple geometric models for sensitivity and bias are not nonparametric, even if their implications are not acknowledged in the defining publications.

Quantum dynamics of a Josephson junction driven cavity mode system in the presence of voltage bias noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hui; Blencowe, M. P.; Armour, A. D.; Rimberg, A. J.

2017-09-01

We give a semiclassical analysis of the average photon number as well as photon number variance (Fano factor F ) for a Josephson junction (JJ) embedded microwave cavity system, where the JJ is subject to a fluctuating (i.e., noisy) bias voltage with finite dc average. Through the ac Josephson effect, the dc voltage bias drives the effectively nonlinear microwave cavity mode into an amplitude squeezed state (F <1 ), as has been established previously [Armour et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 247001 (2013), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.247001], but bias noise acts to degrade this squeezing. We find that the sensitivity of the Fano factor to bias voltage noise depends qualitatively on which stable fixed point regime the system is in for the corresponding classical nonlinear steady-state dynamics. Furthermore, we show that the impact of voltage bias noise is most significant when the cavity is excited to states with large average photon number.

Technology-assisted risk of bias assessment in systematic reviews: a prospective cross-sectional evaluation of the RobotReviewer machine learning tool.

PubMed

Gates, Allison; Vandermeer, Ben; Hartling, Lisa

2018-04-01

To evaluate the reliability of RobotReviewer's risk of bias judgments. In this prospective cross-sectional evaluation, we used RobotReviewer to assess risk of bias among 1,180 trials. We computed reliability with human reviewers using Cohen's kappa coefficient and calculated sensitivity and specificity. We investigated differences in reliability by risk of bias domain, topic, and outcome type using the chi-square test in meta-analysis. Reliability (95% CI) was moderate for random sequence generation (0.48 [0.43, 0.53]), allocation concealment (0.45 [0.40, 0.51]), and blinding of participants and personnel (0.42 [0.36, 0.47]); fair for overall risk of bias (0.34 [0.25, 0.44]); and slight for blinding of outcome assessors (0.10 [0.06, 0.14]), incomplete outcome data (0.14 [0.08, 0.19]), and selective reporting (0.02 [-0.02, 0.05]). Reliability for blinding of participants and personnel (P < 0.001), blinding of outcome assessors (P = 0.005), selective reporting (P < 0.001), and overall risk of bias (P < 0.001) differed by topic. Sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) ranged from 0.20 (0.18, 0.23) to 0.76 (0.72, 0.80) and from 0.61 (0.56, 0.65) to 0.95 (0.93, 0.96), respectively. Risk of bias appraisal is subjective. Compared with reliability between author groups, RobotReviewer's reliability with human reviewers was similar for most domains and better for allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, and overall risk of bias. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Omens of coupled model biases in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Găinuşă-Bogdan, Alina; Hourdin, Frédéric; Traore, Abdoul Khadre; Braconnot, Pascale

2018-02-01

Despite decades of efforts and improvements in the representation of processes as well as in model resolution, current global climate models still suffer from a set of important, systematic biases in sea surface temperature (SST), not much different from the previous generation of climate models. Many studies have looked at errors in the wind field, cloud representation or oceanic upwelling in coupled models to explain the SST errors. In this paper we highlight the relationship between latent heat flux (LH) biases in forced atmospheric simulations and the SST biases models develop in coupled mode, at the scale of the entire intertropical domain. By analyzing 22 pairs of forced atmospheric and coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations from the CMIP5 database, we show a systematic, negative correlation between the spatial patterns of these two biases. This link between forced and coupled bias patterns is also confirmed by two sets of dedicated sensitivity experiments with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. The analysis of the sources of the atmospheric LH bias pattern reveals that the near-surface wind speed bias dominates the zonal structure of the LH bias and that the near-surface relative humidity dominates the east-west contrasts.

Meta-Analysis of Predictive Significance of the Black Hole Sign for Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Hao; You, Chao; Ma, Lu

2018-04-27

Hematoma expansion is related to unfavorable prognosis in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The black hole sign is a novel marker on non-contrast computed tomography for predicting hematoma expansion. However, its predictive values are different in previous studies. Thus, this meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive significance of the black hole sign for hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was performed. Original researches on the association between the black hole sign and hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled to assess the predictive accuracy. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve (SROC) was developed. Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test was used to assess the publication bias. Five studies with a total of 1495 patients were included in this study. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the black hole sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.30 and 0.91, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.78 in SROC curve. There was no significant publication bias. This meta-analysis shows that the black hole sign is a helpful imaging marker for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. Although the black hole sign has a relatively low sensitivity, its specificity is relatively high. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunilkumar, K.; Narayana Rao, T.; Saikranthi, K.; Purnachandra Rao, M.

2015-09-01

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1° × 1° gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller "missing" values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

Stratified probabilistic bias analysis for BMI-related exposure misclassification in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Banack, Hailey R; Stokes, Andrew; Fox, Matthew P; Hovey, Kathleen M; Cespedes-Feliciano, Elizabeth M; LeBlanc, Erin; Bird, Chloe; Caan, Bette J; Kroenke, Candyce H; Allison, Matthew A; Going, Scott B; Snetslaar, Linda; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Stefanick, Marcia L; LaMonte, Michael J; Wactawski-Wende, Jean

2018-06-01

There is widespread concern about the use of body mass index (BMI) to define obesity status in postmenopausal women because it may not accurately represent an individual's true obesity status. The objective of the present study is to examine and adjust for exposure misclassification bias from using an indirect measure of obesity (BMI) compared with a direct measure of obesity (percent body fat). We used data from postmenopausal non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white women in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI; n=126,459). Within the WHI, a sample of 11,018 women were invited to participate in a sub-study involving dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. We examined indices of validity comparing BMI-defined obesity (≥30kg/m) with obesity defined by percent body fat. We then used probabilistic bias analysis models stratified by age and race to explore the effect of exposure misclassification on the obesity-mortality relationship. Validation analyses highlight that using a BMI cutpoint of 30 kg/m to define obesity in postmenopausal women is associated with poor validity. There were notable differences in sensitivity by age and race. Results from the stratified bias analysis demonstrated that failing to adjust for exposure misclassification bias results in attenuated estimates of the obesity-mortality relationship. For example, in non-Hispanic white women age 50-59, the conventional risk difference was 0.017 (95% CI 0.01, 0.023) and the bias-adjusted risk difference was 0.035 (95% SI 0.028, 0.043). These results demonstrate the importance of using quantitative bias analysis techniques to account for non-differential exposure misclassification of BMI-defined obesity.

Diagnostic Performance of Narrow Band Imaging for Laryngeal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Changling; Han, Xue; Li, Xiaoying; Zhang, Yayun; Du, Xiaodong

2017-04-01

Objective To evaluate the performance of narrow band imaging (NBI) for the diagnosis of laryngeal cancer and to compare the diagnostic value of NBI with that of white light endoscopy. Data Sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and CNKI databases. Review Methods Data analyses were performed with Meta-DiSc. The updated Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool was used to assess study quality and potential bias. Publication bias was assessed with the Deeks's asymmetry test. The protocol used in this article has been published on PROSPERO and is in accordance with the PRISMA checklist. The registry number for this study is CRD42015025866. Results Six studies including 716 lesions were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio for the NBI diagnosis of laryngeal cancer were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.91-0.96), 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.92), and 142.12 (95% CI: 46.42-435.15), respectively, and the area under receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.97. Among the 6 studies, 3 evaluated the diagnostic value of white light endoscopy, with a sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76-0.86), a specificity of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95), and a diagnostic odds ratio of 33.82 (95% CI: 14.76-77.49). The evaluation of heterogeneity, calculated per the diagnostic odds ratio, gave an I 2 of 66%. No marked publication bias ( P = .84) was detected in this meta-analysis. Conclusion The sensitivity of NBI is superior to white light endoscopy, and the potential value of NBI needs to be validated in future studies.

A new improved graphical and quantitative method for detecting bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Barendregt, Jan J; Doi, Suhail A R

2018-04-04

Detection of publication and related biases remains suboptimal and threatens the validity and interpretation of meta-analytical findings. When bias is present, it usually differentially affects small and large studies manifesting as an association between precision and effect size and therefore visual asymmetry of conventional funnel plots. This asymmetry can be quantified and Egger's regression is, by far, the most widely used statistical measure for quantifying funnel plot asymmetry. However, concerns have been raised about both the visual appearance of funnel plots and the sensitivity of Egger's regression to detect such asymmetry, particularly when the number of studies is small. In this article, we propose a new graphical method, the Doi plot, to visualize asymmetry and also a new measure, the LFK index, to detect and quantify asymmetry of study effects in Doi plots. We demonstrate that the visual representation of asymmetry was better for the Doi plot when compared with the funnel plot. We also show that the diagnostic accuracy of the LFK index in discriminating between asymmetry due to simulated publication bias versus chance or no asymmetry was also better with the LFK index which had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74-0.88 with simulations of meta-analyses with five, 10, 15, and 20 studies. The Egger's regression result had lower areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.58-0.75 across the same simulations. The LFK index also had a higher sensitivity (71.3-72.1%) than the Egger's regression result (18.5-43.0%). We conclude that the methods proposed in this article can markedly improve the ability of researchers to detect bias in meta-analysis.

Aerosol Retrievals over the Ocean using Channel 1 and 2 AVHRR Data: A Sensitivity Analysis and Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mishchenko, Michael I.; Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Cairns, Brian; Rossow, William B.; Lacis, Andrew A.

1999-01-01

This paper outlines the methodology of interpreting channel 1 and 2 AVHRR radiance data over the oceans and describes a detailed analysis of the sensitivity of monthly averages of retrieved aerosol parameters to the assumptions made in different retrieval algorithms. The analysis is based on using real AVHRR data and exploiting accurate numerical techniques for computing single and multiple scattering and spectral absorption of light in the vertically inhomogeneous atmosphere-ocean system. We show that two-channel algorithms can be expected to provide significantly more accurate and less biased retrievals of the aerosol optical thickness than one-channel algorithms and that imperfect cloud screening and calibration uncertainties are by far the largest sources of errors in the retrieved aerosol parameters. Both underestimating and overestimating aerosol absorption as well as the potentially strong variability of the real part of the aerosol refractive index may lead to regional and/or seasonal biases in optical thickness retrievals. The Angstrom exponent appears to be the most invariant aerosol size characteristic and should be retrieved along with optical thickness as the second aerosol parameter.

Verification bias an underrecognized source of error in assessing the efficacy of medical imaging.

PubMed

Petscavage, Jonelle M; Richardson, Michael L; Carr, Robert B

2011-03-01

Diagnostic tests are validated by comparison against a "gold standard" reference test. When the reference test is invasive or expensive, it may not be applied to all patients. This can result in biased estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. This type of bias is called "verification bias," and is a common problem in imaging research. The purpose of our study is to estimate the prevalence of verification bias in the recent radiology literature. All issues of the American Journal of Roentgenology (AJR), Academic Radiology, Radiology, and European Journal of Radiology (EJR) between November 2006 and October 2009 were reviewed for original research articles mentioning sensitivity or specificity as endpoints. Articles were read to determine whether verification bias was present and searched for author recognition of verification bias in the design. During 3 years, these journals published 2969 original research articles. A total of 776 articles used sensitivity or specificity as an outcome. Of these, 211 articles demonstrated potential verification bias. The fraction of articles with potential bias was respectively 36.4%, 23.4%, 29.5%, and 13.4% for AJR, Academic Radiology, Radiology, and EJR. The total fraction of papers with potential bias in which the authors acknowledged this bias was 17.1%. Verification bias is a common and frequently unacknowledged source of error in efficacy studies of diagnostic imaging. Bias can often be eliminated by proper study design. When it cannot be eliminated, it should be estimated and acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Value of circulating cell-free DNA analysis as a diagnostic tool for breast cancer: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Ma, Xuelei; Zhang, Jing; Hu, Xiuying

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate the diagnostic value of cell free DNA (cfDNA) for breast cancer. Results Among 308 candidate articles, 25 with relevant diagnostic screening qualified for final analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) of SROC plots for 24 studies that distinguished breast cancer patients from healthy controls were 0.70, 0.87, and 0.9314, yielding a DOR of 32.31. When analyzed in subgroups, the 14 quantitative studies produced sensitivity, specificity, AUC, and a DOR of 0.78, 0.83, 0.9116, and 24.40. The 10 qualitative studies produced 0.50, 0.98, 0.9919, and 68.45. For 8 studies that distinguished malignant breast cancer from benign diseases, the specificity, sensitivity, AUC and DOR were 0.75, 0.79, 0.8213, and 9.49. No covariate factors had a significant correlation with relative DOR. Deek's funnel plots indicated an absence of publication bias. Materials and Methods Databases were searched for studies involving the use of cfDNA to diagnose breast cancer. The studies were analyzed to determine sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC). Covariates were evaluated for effect on relative DOR. Deek's Funnel plots were generated to measure publication bias. Conclusions Our analysis suggests a promising diagnostic potential of using cfDNA for breast cancer screening, but this diagnostic method is not yet independently sufficient. Further work refining qualitative cfDNA assays will improve the correct diagnosis of breast cancers. PMID:28460452

Diagnostic potential of real-time elastography (RTE) and shear wave elastography (SWE) to differentiate benign and malignant thyroid nodules: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hu, Xiangdong; Liu, Yujiang; Qian, Linxue

2017-10-01

Real-time elastography (RTE) and shear wave elastography (SWE) are noninvasive and easily available imaging techniques that measure the tissue strain, and it has been reported that the sensitivity and the specificity of elastography were better in differentiating between benign and malignant thyroid nodules than conventional technologies. Relevant articles were searched in multiple databases; the comparison of elasticity index (EI) was conducted with the Review Manager 5.0. Forest plots of the sensitivity and specificity and SROC curve of RTE and SWE were performed with STATA 10.0 software. In addition, sensitivity analysis and bias analysis of the studies were conducted to examine the quality of articles; and to estimate possible publication bias, funnel plot was used and the Egger test was conducted. Finally 22 articles which eventually satisfied the inclusion criteria were included in this study. After eliminating the inefficient, benign and malignant nodules were 2106 and 613, respectively. The meta-analysis suggested that the difference of EI between benign and malignant nodules was statistically significant (SMD = 2.11, 95% CI [1.67, 2.55], P < .00001). The overall sensitivities of RTE and SWE were roughly comparable, whereas the difference of specificities between these 2 methods was statistically significant. In addition, statistically significant difference of AUC between RTE and SWE was observed between RTE and SWE (P < .01). The specificity of RTE was statistically higher than that of SWE; which suggests that compared with SWE, RTE may be more accurate on differentiating benign and malignant thyroid nodules.

"A Bayesian sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of unmeasured confounding with external data: a real world comparative effectiveness study in osteoporosis".

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Faries, Douglas E; Boytsov, Natalie; Stamey, James D; Seaman, John W

2016-09-01

Observational studies are frequently used to assess the effectiveness of medical interventions in routine clinical practice. However, the use of observational data for comparative effectiveness is challenged by selection bias and the potential of unmeasured confounding. This is especially problematic for analyses using a health care administrative database, in which key clinical measures are often not available. This paper provides an approach to conducting a sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. In a real world osteoporosis comparative effectiveness study, the bone mineral density (BMD) score, an important predictor of fracture risk and a factor in the selection of osteoporosis treatments, is unavailable in the data base and lack of baseline BMD could potentially lead to significant selection bias. We implemented Bayesian twin-regression models, which simultaneously model both the observed outcome and the unobserved unmeasured confounder, using information from external sources. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of our conclusions to changes in such external data. The use of Bayesian modeling in this study suggests that the lack of baseline BMD did have a strong impact on the analysis, reversing the direction of the estimated effect (odds ratio of fracture incidence at 24 months: 0.40 vs. 1.36, with/without adjusting for unmeasured baseline BMD). The Bayesian twin-regression models provide a flexible sensitivity analysis tool to quantitatively assess the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay versuspolymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do; Castro, Rodolfo; Castro, Liane de

2016-01-01

Chronic Chagas disease diagnosis relies on laboratory tests due to its clinical characteristics. The aim of this research was to review commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test performance. Performance of commercial ELISA or PCR for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web, and LILACS through the bibliography from 1980-2014 and by contact with the manufacturers. The risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Heterogeneity was estimated with the I2 statistic. Accuracies provided by the manufacturers usually overestimate the accuracy provided by academia. The risk of bias is high in most tests and in most QUADAS dimensions. Heterogeneity is high in either sensitivity, specificity, or both. The evidence regarding commercial ELISA and ELISA-rec sensitivity and specificity indicates that there is overestimation. The current recommendation to use two simultaneous serological tests can be supported by the risk of bias analysis and the amount of heterogeneity but not by the observed accuracies. The usefulness of PCR tests are debatable and health care providers should not order them on a routine basis. PCR may be used in selected cases due to its potential to detect seronegative subjects.

Non-ignorable missingness in logistic regression.

PubMed

Wang, Joanna J J; Bartlett, Mark; Ryan, Louise

2017-08-30

Nonresponses and missing data are common in observational studies. Ignoring or inadequately handling missing data may lead to biased parameter estimation, incorrect standard errors and, as a consequence, incorrect statistical inference and conclusions. We present a strategy for modelling non-ignorable missingness where the probability of nonresponse depends on the outcome. Using a simple case of logistic regression, we quantify the bias in regression estimates and show the observed likelihood is non-identifiable under non-ignorable missing data mechanism. We then adopt a selection model factorisation of the joint distribution as the basis for a sensitivity analysis to study changes in estimated parameters and the robustness of study conclusions against different assumptions. A Bayesian framework for model estimation is used as it provides a flexible approach for incorporating different missing data assumptions and conducting sensitivity analysis. Using simulated data, we explore the performance of the Bayesian selection model in correcting for bias in a logistic regression. We then implement our strategy using survey data from the 45 and Up Study to investigate factors associated with worsening health from the baseline to follow-up survey. Our findings have practical implications for the use of the 45 and Up Study data to answer important research questions relating to health and quality-of-life. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay versus polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

do Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano; Castro, Rodolfo; de Castro, Liane

2016-01-01

Chronic Chagas disease diagnosis relies on laboratory tests due to its clinical characteristics. The aim of this research was to review commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test performance. Performance of commercial ELISA or PCR for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web, and LILACS through the bibliography from 1980-2014 and by contact with the manufacturers. The risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Heterogeneity was estimated with the I2 statistic. Accuracies provided by the manufacturers usually overestimate the accuracy provided by academia. The risk of bias is high in most tests and in most QUADAS dimensions. Heterogeneity is high in either sensitivity, specificity, or both. The evidence regarding commercial ELISA and ELISA-rec sensitivity and specificity indicates that there is overestimation. The current recommendation to use two simultaneous serological tests can be supported by the risk of bias analysis and the amount of heterogeneity but not by the observed accuracies. The usefulness of PCR tests are debatable and health care providers should not order them on a routine basis. PCR may be used in selected cases due to its potential to detect seronegative subjects. PMID:26814640

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Design, Part 2: Principles.

PubMed

Manja, Veena; Lakshminrusimha, Satyan

This is the third article covering core knowledge in scholarly activities for neonatal physicians. In this article, we discuss various principles of epidemiology and clinical research design. A basic knowledge of these principles is necessary for conducting clinical research and for proper interpretation of studies. This article reviews bias and confounding, causation, incidence and prevalence, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness, sensitivity analysis, and measurement.

Postmodeling Sensitivity Analysis to Detect the Effect of Missing Data Mechanisms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, Mortaza; Mata, Matthew

2008-01-01

Incomplete or missing data is a common problem in almost all areas of empirical research. It is well known that simple and ad hoc methods such as complete case analysis or mean imputation can lead to biased and/or inefficient estimates. The method of maximum likelihood works well; however, when the missing data mechanism is not one of missing…

Extrachromosomal inheritance in Schizosaccharomyces pombe. I. Evidence for an extrakaryotically inherited mutation conferring resistance to antimycin.

PubMed

Wolf, K; Burger, G; Lang, B; Kaudewitz, F

1976-02-27

In crosses of [ANTr8] with auxotrophic strains, resistance to antimycin segregates almost 50:50 in random spore analysis with a slight preponderance for the sensitivity allele. Tetrad analysis, however, shows all possible types of tetrads (2:2; 3:1; 1:3; 4:0; 0:4 resistant versus sensitive) with an excess of 2:2 segregations and sectoring of colonies on antimycin medium indicating an extrachromosomal mode of inheritance. The overall ratio of resistant versus sensitive spores is the same as compared with random spore data. Using a mutant blocked in meiosis (mei 1) mitotic segregation of stable diploids is achieved, leading to a ratio of 20% resistant to 80% sensitive clones. Possible reasons for the bias in transmission of the resistance determinant is discussed.

Without Bias: A Guidebook for Nondiscriminatory Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pickens, Judy E., Ed.; And Others

This guidebook discusses ways to eliminate various types of discrimination from business communications. Separately authored chapters discuss eliminating racial and ethnic bias; eliminating sexual bias; achieving communication sensitive about handicaps of disabled persons; eliminating bias from visual media; eliminating bias from meetings,…

Functionalized graphene/silicon chemi-diode H₂ sensor with tunable sensitivity.

PubMed

Uddin, Md Ahsan; Singh, Amol Kumar; Sudarshan, Tangali S; Koley, Goutam

2014-03-28

A reverse bias tunable Pd- and Pt-functionalized graphene/Si heterostructure Schottky diode H2 sensor has been demonstrated. Compared to the graphene chemiresistor sensor, the chemi-diode sensor offers more than one order of magnitude higher sensitivity as the molecular adsorption induced Schottky barrier height change causes the heterojunction current to vary exponentially in reverse bias. The reverse bias operation also enables low power consumption, as well as modulation of the atomically thin graphene's Fermi level, leading to tunable sensitivity and detection of H₂ down to the sub-ppm range.

A comparison of estimators from self-controlled case series, case-crossover design, and sequence symmetry analysis for pharmacoepidemiological studies.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Yoshinori; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Matsuyama, Yutaka

2018-01-08

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets. We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records. In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied. The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

Comparing theories of reference-dependent choice.

PubMed

Bhatia, Sudeep

2017-09-01

Preferences are influenced by the presence or absence of salient choice options, known as reference points. This behavioral tendency is traditionally attributed to the loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity assumptions of prospect theory. In contrast, some psychological research suggests that reference dependence is caused by attentional biases that increase the subjective weighting of the reference point's primary attributes. Although both theories are able to successfully account for behavioral findings involving reference dependence, this article shows that these theories make diverging choice predictions when available options are inferior to the reference point. It presents the results of 2 studies that use settings with inferior choice options to compare these 2 theories. The analysis involves quantitative fits to participant-level choice data, and the results indicate that most participants are better described by models with attentional bias than they are by models with loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. These differences appear to be caused by violations of loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in losses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Lessons learnt on biases and uncertainties in personal exposure measurement surveys of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields with exposimeters.

PubMed

Bolte, John F B

2016-09-01

Personal exposure measurements of radio frequency electromagnetic fields are important for epidemiological studies and developing prediction models. Minimizing biases and uncertainties and handling spatial and temporal variability are important aspects of these measurements. This paper reviews the lessons learnt from testing the different types of exposimeters and from personal exposure measurement surveys performed between 2005 and 2015. Applying them will improve the comparability and ranking of exposure levels for different microenvironments, activities or (groups of) people, such that epidemiological studies are better capable of finding potential weak correlations with health effects. Over 20 papers have been published on how to prevent biases and minimize uncertainties due to: mechanical errors; design of hardware and software filters; anisotropy; and influence of the body. A number of biases can be corrected for by determining multiplicative correction factors. In addition a good protocol on how to wear the exposimeter, a sufficiently small sampling interval and sufficiently long measurement duration will minimize biases. Corrections to biases are possible for: non-detects through detection limit, erroneous manufacturer calibration and temporal drift. Corrections not deemed necessary, because no significant biases have been observed, are: linearity in response and resolution. Corrections difficult to perform after measurements are for: modulation/duty cycle sensitivity; out of band response aka cross talk; temperature and humidity sensitivity. Corrections not possible to perform after measurements are for: multiple signals detection in one band; flatness of response within a frequency band; anisotropy to waves of different elevation angle. An analysis of 20 microenvironmental surveys showed that early studies using exposimeters with logarithmic detectors, overestimated exposure to signals with bursts, such as in uplink signals from mobile phones and WiFi appliances. Further, the possible corrections for biases have not been fully applied. The main findings are that if the biases are not corrected for, the actual exposure will on average be underestimated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TSUNAMI Primer: A Primer for Sensitivity/Uncertainty Calculations with SCALE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Mueller, Don; Bowman, Stephen M

2009-01-01

This primer presents examples in the application of the SCALE/TSUNAMI tools to generate k{sub eff} sensitivity data for one- and three-dimensional models using TSUNAMI-1D and -3D and to examine uncertainties in the computed k{sub eff} values due to uncertainties in the cross-section data used in their calculation. The proper use of unit cell data and need for confirming the appropriate selection of input parameters through direct perturbations are described. The uses of sensitivity and uncertainty data to identify and rank potential sources of computational bias in an application system and TSUNAMI tools for assessment of system similarity using sensitivity andmore » uncertainty criteria are demonstrated. Uses of these criteria in trending analyses to assess computational biases, bias uncertainties, and gap analyses are also described. Additionally, an application of the data adjustment tool TSURFER is provided, including identification of specific details of sources of computational bias.« less

Differential sensitivity to the environment: contribution of cognitive biases and genes to psychological wellbeing.

PubMed

Fox, E; Beevers, C G

2016-12-01

Negative cognitive biases and genetic variation have been associated with risk of psychopathology in largely independent lines of research. Here, we discuss ways in which these dynamic fields of research might be fruitfully combined. We propose that gene by environment (G × E) interactions may be mediated by selective cognitive biases and that certain forms of genetic 'reactivity' or 'sensitivity' may represent heightened sensitivity to the learning environment in a 'for better and for worse' manner. To progress knowledge in this field, we recommend including assessments of cognitive processing biases; examining G × E interactions in 'both' negative and positive environments; experimentally manipulating the environment when possible; and moving beyond single-gene effects to assess polygenic sensitivity scores. We formulate a new methodological framework encapsulating cognitive and genetic factors in the development of both psychopathology and optimal wellbeing that holds long-term promise for the development of new personalized therapies.

Missing data handling in non-inferiority and equivalence trials: A systematic review.

PubMed

Rabe, Brooke A; Day, Simon; Fiero, Mallorie H; Bell, Melanie L

2018-05-25

Non-inferiority (NI) and equivalence clinical trials test whether a new treatment is therapeutically no worse than, or equivalent to, an existing standard of care. Missing data in clinical trials have been shown to reduce statistical power and potentially bias estimates of effect size; however, in NI and equivalence trials, they present additional issues. For instance, they may decrease sensitivity to differences between treatment groups and bias toward the alternative hypothesis of NI (or equivalence). Our primary aim was to review the extent of and methods for handling missing data (model-based methods, single imputation, multiple imputation, complete case), the analysis sets used (Intention-To-Treat, Per-Protocol, or both), and whether sensitivity analyses were used to explore departures from assumptions about the missing data. We conducted a systematic review of NI and equivalence trials published between May 2015 and April 2016 by searching the PubMed database. Articles were reviewed primarily by 2 reviewers, with 6 articles reviewed by both reviewers to establish consensus. Of 109 selected articles, 93% reported some missing data in the primary outcome. Among those, 50% reported complete case analysis, and 28% reported single imputation approaches for handling missing data. Only 32% reported conducting analyses of both intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations. Only 11% conducted any sensitivity analyses to test assumptions with respect to missing data. Missing data are common in NI and equivalence trials, and they are often handled by methods which may bias estimates and lead to incorrect conclusions. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inaccurate Estimation of Disparities Due to Mischievous Responders: Several Suggestions to Assess Conclusions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson-Cimpian, Joseph P.

2014-01-01

This article introduces novel sensitivity-analysis procedures for investigating and reducing the bias that mischievous responders (i.e., youths who provide extreme, and potentially untruthful, responses to multiple questions) often introduce in adolescent disparity estimates based on data from self-administered questionnaires (SAQs). Mischievous…

Sensory and non-sensory factors and the concept of externality in obese subjects.

PubMed

Gardner, R M; Brake, S J; Reyes, B; Maestas, D

1983-08-01

9 obese and 9 normal subjects performed a psychophysical task in which food- or non-food-related stimuli were briefly flashed tachistoscopically at a speed and intensity near the visual threshold. A signal was presented on one-half the trials and noise only on the other one-half of the trials. Using signal detection theory methodology, separate measures of sensory sensitivity (d') and response bias (beta) were calculated. No differences were noted between obese and normal subjects on measures of sensory sensitivity but significant differences on response bias. Obese subjects had consistently lower response criteria than normal ones. Analysis for subjects categorized by whether they were restrained or unrestrained eaters gave findings identical to those for obese and normal. The importance of using a methodology that separates sensory and non-sensory factors in research on obesity is discussed.

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Design, Part 2: Principles

PubMed Central

Manja, Veena; Lakshminrusimha, Satyan

2015-01-01

This is the third article covering core knowledge in scholarly activities for neonatal physicians. In this article, we discuss various principles of epidemiology and clinical research design. A basic knowledge of these principles is necessary for conducting clinical research and for proper interpretation of studies. This article reviews bias and confounding, causation, incidence and prevalence, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness, sensitivity analysis, and measurement. PMID:26236171

Alcohol consumption and the intention to engage in unprotected sex: systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies.

PubMed

Rehm, Jürgen; Shield, Kevin D; Joharchi, Narges; Shuper, Paul A

2012-01-01

To review and analyse in experimentally controlled studies the impact of alcohol consumption on intentions to engage in unprotected sex. To draw conclusions with respect to the question of whether alcohol has an independent effect on the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies examined the association between blood alcohol content (BAC) and self-perceived likelihood of using a condom during intercourse. The systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted according to internationally standardized protocols (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: PRISMA). The meta-analysis included an estimate of the dose-response effect, tests for publication bias and sensitivity analyses. Of the 12 studies included in the quantitative synthesis, our pooled analysis indicated that an increase in BAC of 0.1 mg/ml resulted in an increase of 5.0% (95% CI: 2.8-7.1%) in the indicated likelihood (indicated by a Likert scale) of engaging in unprotected sex. After adjusting for potential publication bias, this estimate dropped to 2.9% (95% CI: 2.0-3.9%). Thus, the larger the alcohol intake and the subsequent level of BAC, the higher the intentions to engage in unsafe sex. The main results were homogeneous, persisted in sensitivity analyses and after correction for publication bias. Alcohol use is an independent risk factor for intentions to engage in unprotected sex, and as risky sex intentions have been shown to be linked to actual risk behavior, the role of alcohol consumption in the transmission of HIV and other STIs may be of public health importance. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

[Methylene blue in the treatment of vasodilatory shock: a Meta-analysis].

PubMed

Zhang, Xiongfeng; Gao, Yun; Pan, Pengfei; Wang, Yi; Li, Wenzhe; Yu, Xiangyou

2017-11-01

To investigate the clinical efficacy of methylene blue in the treatment of refractory hypotension caused by vascular paralysis during the course of vasodilatory shock. The related articles were searched by retrieving the terms using methylene blue, vascular paralysis, hemodynamics, hypotension, vasodilatory shock in CNKI, China Biomedical Literature database, Wanfang database, PubMed, Springer Link, and BIOSIS Previews database. The retrieval time was from January 1994 to June 2017. The randomized clinical trials (RCTs) which using methylene blue as the experimental group, normal saline or catecholamine as the control in the treatment of refractory hypotension caused by vascular paralysis during the course of vasodilatory shock were collected. The primary end points were mean arterial pressure (MAP) immediately or 1 hour after the methylene blue administration, and the mortality at the longest follow-up available; the secondary end point was serum lactic acid (Lac) 1 hour after the methylene blue administration. Literature screening, data extraction and quality evaluation were carried out by two researchers. Meta analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3 software. The sensitivity analysis was performed in two trials with low risk of bias. The funnel plot for MAP was performed in five relative trials to analyze the research and publication bias. Totally 269 relative articles were collected, according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, finally 6 RCTs with 214 patients were enrolled, 108 in methylene blue group, and 106 in control group. Four of the studies were considered to have mild to moderate risk of bias, two studies of high risk of bias. The Meta-analysis demonstrated that compared with the control group, methylene blue could significantly improve MAP [mean difference (MD) = 4.87, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 2.61 to 7.13, P < 0.000 1], reduce the serum Lac levels (MD = -1.06, 95%CI = -1.98 to -0.14, P = 0.02), and the mortality was decreased without statistical difference [odds ratio (OR) = 0.58, 95%CI = 0.25 to 1.31, P = 0.19]. Sensitivity analysis was performed in two trials with low risk of bias, which demonstrated methylene blue could exactly increase MAP (MD = 8.93, 95%CI = 1.55 to 16.32, P = 0.02). Funnel plot for MAP was performed in five relative trials which found no obvious publication bias. Methylene blue could significantly increase MAP in the patients with refractory hypotension caused by vascular paralysis during the course of vasodilatory shock, decrease the Lac levels, and does not increase the risk of death. Therefore, methylene blue should be a potential and safe vasoconstrictor.

Bayesian sensitivity analysis methods to evaluate bias due to misclassification and missing data using informative priors and external validation data.

PubMed

Luta, George; Ford, Melissa B; Bondy, Melissa; Shields, Peter G; Stamey, James D

2013-04-01

Recent research suggests that the Bayesian paradigm may be useful for modeling biases in epidemiological studies, such as those due to misclassification and missing data. We used Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to the potential effect of these two important sources of bias. We used data from a study of the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer among breast cancer survivors. We used Bayesian methods to provide an operational way to combine both validation data and expert opinion to account for misclassification of the two risk factors and missing data. For comparative purposes we considered a "full model" that allowed for both misclassification and missing data, along with alternative models that considered only misclassification or missing data, and the naïve model that ignored both sources of bias. We identified noticeable differences between the four models with respect to the posterior distributions of the odds ratios that described the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer. Despite those differences we found that the general conclusions regarding the pattern of associations were the same regardless of the model used. Overall our results indicate a nonsignificantly decreased lung cancer risk due to radiotherapy among nonsmokers, and a mildly increased risk among smokers. We described easy to implement Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to misclassification and missing data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling bias and variation in the stochastic processes of small RNA sequencing

PubMed Central

Etheridge, Alton; Sakhanenko, Nikita; Galas, David

2017-01-01

Abstract The use of RNA-seq as the preferred method for the discovery and validation of small RNA biomarkers has been hindered by high quantitative variability and biased sequence counts. In this paper we develop a statistical model for sequence counts that accounts for ligase bias and stochastic variation in sequence counts. This model implies a linear quadratic relation between the mean and variance of sequence counts. Using a large number of sequencing datasets, we demonstrate how one can use the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) distributional regression framework to calculate and apply empirical correction factors for ligase bias. Bias correction could remove more than 40% of the bias for miRNAs. Empirical bias correction factors appear to be nearly constant over at least one and up to four orders of magnitude of total RNA input and independent of sample composition. Using synthetic mixes of known composition, we show that the GAMLSS approach can analyze differential expression with greater accuracy, higher sensitivity and specificity than six existing algorithms (DESeq2, edgeR, EBSeq, limma, DSS, voom) for the analysis of small RNA-seq data. PMID:28369495

Genetic influences on the cognitive biases associated with anxiety and depression symptoms in adolescents.

PubMed

Zavos, Helena M S; Rijsdijk, Frühling V; Gregory, Alice M; Eley, Thalia C

2010-07-01

There is a substantial overlap between genes affecting anxiety and depression. Both anxiety and depression are associated with cognitive biases such as anxiety sensitivity and attributional style. Little, however, is known about the relationship between these variables and whether these too are genetically correlated. Self-reports of anxiety sensitivity, anxiety symptoms, attributional style and depression symptoms were obtained for over 1300 adolescent twin and sibling pairs at two time points. The magnitude of genetic and environmental influences on the measures was examined. Strongest associations were found between anxiety sensitivity and anxiety ratings at both measurement times (r=.70, .72) and between anxiety and depression (r=.62 at both time points). Correlations between the cognitive biases were modest at time 1 (r=-.12) and slightly larger at time 2 (r=-.31). All measures showed moderate genetic influence. Generally genetic correlations reflected phenotypic correlations. Thus the highest genetic correlations were between anxiety sensitivity and anxiety ratings (.86, .87) and between anxiety and depression ratings (.77, .71). Interestingly, depression ratings also showed a high genetic correlation with anxiety sensitivity (.70, .76). Genetic correlations between the cognitive bias measures were moderate (-.31, -.46). The sample consists primarily of twins, there are limitations associated with the twin design. Cognitive biases associated with depression and anxiety are not as genetically correlated as anxiety and depression ratings themselves. Further research into the cognitive processes related to anxiety and depression will facilitate understanding of the relationship between bias and symptoms.

Branched-chain amino acids for people with hepatic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Gluud, Lise Lotte; Dam, Gitte; Les, Iñigo; Córdoba, Juan; Marchesini, Giulio; Borre, Mette; Aagaard, Niels Kristian; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2015-02-25

Hepatic encephalopathy is a brain dysfunction with neurological and psychiatric changes associated with liver insufficiency or portal-systemic shunting. The severity ranges from minor symptoms to coma. A Cochrane systematic review including 11 randomised clinical trials on branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) versus control interventions has evaluated if BCAA may benefit people with hepatic encephalopathy. To evaluate the beneficial and harmful effects of BCAA versus any control intervention for people with hepatic encephalopathy. We identified trials through manual and electronic searches in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index on 2 October 2014. We included randomised clinical trials, irrespective of the bias control, language, or publication status. The authors independently extracted data based on published reports and collected data from the primary investigators. We changed our primary outcomes in this update of the review to include mortality (all cause), hepatic encephalopathy (number of people without improved manifestations of hepatic encephalopathy), and adverse events. The analyses included random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses. We performed subgroup, sensitivity, regression, and trial sequential analyses to evaluate sources of heterogeneity (including intervention, and participant and trial characteristics), bias (using The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group method), small-study effects, and the robustness of the results after adjusting for sparse data and multiplicity. We graded the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We found 16 randomised clinical trials including 827 participants with hepatic encephalopathy classed as overt (12 trials) or minimal (four trials). Eight trials assessed oral BCAA supplements and seven trials assessed intravenous BCAA. The control groups received placebo/no intervention (two trials), diets (10 trials), lactulose (two trials), or neomycin (two trials). In 15 trials, all participants had cirrhosis. Based on the combined Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group score, we classed seven trials as low risk of bias and nine trials as high risk of bias (mainly due to lack of blinding or for-profit funding). In a random-effects meta-analysis of mortality, we found no difference between BCAA and controls (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 1.11; 760 participants; 15 trials; moderate quality of evidence). We found no evidence of small-study effects. Sensitivity analyses of trials with a low risk of bias found no beneficial or detrimental effect of BCAA on mortality. Trial sequential analysis showed that the required information size was not reached, suggesting that additional evidence was needed. BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88; 827 participants; 16 trials; high quality of evidence). We found no small-study effects and confirmed the beneficial effect of BCAA in a sensitivity analysis that only included trials with a low risk of bias (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.96). The trial sequential analysis showed that firm evidence was reached. In a fixed-effect meta-analysis, we found that BCAA increased the risk of nausea and vomiting (RR 5.56; 2.93 to 10.55; moderate quality of evidence). We found no beneficial or detrimental effects of BCAA on nausea or vomiting in a random-effects meta-analysis or on quality of life or nutritional parameters. We did not identify predictors of the intervention effect in the subgroup, sensitivity, or meta-regression analyses. In sensitivity analyses that excluded trials with a lactulose or neomycin control, BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.92). Additional sensitivity analyses found no difference between BCAA and lactulose or neomycin (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.30). In this updated review, we included five additional trials. The analyses showed that BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy. We found no effect on mortality, quality of life, or nutritional parameters, but we need additional trials to evaluate these outcomes. Likewise, we need additional randomised clinical trials to determine the effect of BCAA compared with interventions such as non-absorbable disaccharides, rifaximin, or other antibiotics.

Branched-chain amino acids for people with hepatic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Gluud, Lise Lotte; Dam, Gitte; Les, Iñigo; Marchesini, Giulio; Borre, Mette; Aagaard, Niels Kristian; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2017-05-18

Hepatic encephalopathy is a brain dysfunction with neurological and psychiatric changes associated with liver insufficiency or portal-systemic shunting. The severity ranges from minor symptoms to coma. A Cochrane systematic review including 11 randomised clinical trials on branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) versus control interventions has evaluated if BCAA may benefit people with hepatic encephalopathy. To evaluate the beneficial and harmful effects of BCAA versus any control intervention for people with hepatic encephalopathy. We identified trials through manual and electronic searches in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science, and LILACS (May 2017). We included randomised clinical trials, irrespective of the bias control, language, or publication status. The authors independently extracted data based on published reports and collected data from the primary investigators. We changed our primary outcomes in this update of the review to include mortality (all cause), hepatic encephalopathy (number of people without improved manifestations of hepatic encephalopathy), and adverse events. The analyses included random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses. We performed subgroup, sensitivity, regression, and trial sequential analyses to evaluate sources of heterogeneity (including intervention, and participant and trial characteristics), bias (using The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group method), small-study effects, and the robustness of the results after adjusting for sparse data and multiplicity. We graded the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We found 16 randomised clinical trials including 827 participants with hepatic encephalopathy classed as overt (12 trials) or minimal (four trials). Eight trials assessed oral BCAA supplements and seven trials assessed intravenous BCAA. The control groups received placebo/no intervention (two trials), diets (10 trials), lactulose (two trials), or neomycin (two trials). In 15 trials, all participants had cirrhosis. We classed seven trials as low risk of bias and nine trials as high risk of bias (mainly due to lack of blinding or for-profit funding). In a random-effects meta-analysis of mortality, we found no difference between BCAA and controls (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 1.11; 760 participants; 15 trials; moderate quality of evidence). We found no evidence of small-study effects. Sensitivity analyses of trials with a low risk of bias found no beneficial or detrimental effect of BCAA on mortality. Trial sequential analysis showed that the required information size was not reached, suggesting that additional evidence was needed. BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88; 827 participants; 16 trials; high quality of evidence). We found no small-study effects and confirmed the beneficial effect of BCAA in a sensitivity analysis that only included trials with a low risk of bias (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.96). The trial sequential analysis showed that firm evidence was reached. In a fixed-effect meta-analysis, we found that BCAA increased the risk of nausea and vomiting (RR 5.56; 2.93 to 10.55; moderate quality of evidence). We found no beneficial or detrimental effects of BCAA on nausea or vomiting in a random-effects meta-analysis or on quality of life or nutritional parameters. We did not identify predictors of the intervention effect in the subgroup, sensitivity, or meta-regression analyses. In sensitivity analyses that excluded trials with a lactulose or neomycin control, BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.92). Additional sensitivity analyses found no difference between BCAA and lactulose or neomycin (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.30). In this updated review, we included five additional trials. The analyses showed that BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy. We found no effect on mortality, quality of life, or nutritional parameters, but we need additional trials to evaluate these outcomes. Likewise, we need additional randomised clinical trials to determine the effect of BCAA compared with interventions such as non-absorbable disaccharides, rifaximin, or other antibiotics.

Branched-chain amino acids for people with hepatic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Gluud, Lise Lotte; Dam, Gitte; Les, Iñigo; Córdoba, Juan; Marchesini, Giulio; Borre, Mette; Aagaard, Niels Kristian; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2015-09-17

Hepatic encephalopathy is a brain dysfunction with neurological and psychiatric changes associated with liver insufficiency or portal-systemic shunting. The severity ranges from minor symptoms to coma. A Cochrane systematic review including 11 randomised clinical trials on branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) versus control interventions has evaluated if BCAA may benefit people with hepatic encephalopathy. To evaluate the beneficial and harmful effects of BCAA versus any control intervention for people with hepatic encephalopathy. We identified trials through manual and electronic searches in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index (August 2015). We included randomised clinical trials, irrespective of the bias control, language, or publication status. The authors independently extracted data based on published reports and collected data from the primary investigators. We changed our primary outcomes in this update of the review to include mortality (all cause), hepatic encephalopathy (number of people without improved manifestations of hepatic encephalopathy), and adverse events. The analyses included random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses. We performed subgroup, sensitivity, regression, and trial sequential analyses to evaluate sources of heterogeneity (including intervention, and participant and trial characteristics), bias (using The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group method), small-study effects, and the robustness of the results after adjusting for sparse data and multiplicity. We graded the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We found 16 randomised clinical trials including 827 participants with hepatic encephalopathy classed as overt (12 trials) or minimal (four trials). Eight trials assessed oral BCAA supplements and seven trials assessed intravenous BCAA. The control groups received placebo/no intervention (two trials), diets (10 trials), lactulose (two trials), or neomycin (two trials). In 15 trials, all participants had cirrhosis. We classed seven trials as low risk of bias and nine trials as high risk of bias (mainly due to lack of blinding or for-profit funding). In a random-effects meta-analysis of mortality, we found no difference between BCAA and controls (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 1.11; 760 participants; 15 trials; moderate quality of evidence). We found no evidence of small-study effects. Sensitivity analyses of trials with a low risk of bias found no beneficial or detrimental effect of BCAA on mortality. Trial sequential analysis showed that the required information size was not reached, suggesting that additional evidence was needed. BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88; 827 participants; 16 trials; high quality of evidence). We found no small-study effects and confirmed the beneficial effect of BCAA in a sensitivity analysis that only included trials with a low risk of bias (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.96). The trial sequential analysis showed that firm evidence was reached. In a fixed-effect meta-analysis, we found that BCAA increased the risk of nausea and vomiting (RR 5.56; 2.93 to 10.55; moderate quality of evidence). We found no beneficial or detrimental effects of BCAA on nausea or vomiting in a random-effects meta-analysis or on quality of life or nutritional parameters. We did not identify predictors of the intervention effect in the subgroup, sensitivity, or meta-regression analyses. In sensitivity analyses that excluded trials with a lactulose or neomycin control, BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.92). Additional sensitivity analyses found no difference between BCAA and lactulose or neomycin (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.30). In this updated review, we included five additional trials. The analyses showed that BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy. We found no effect on mortality, quality of life, or nutritional parameters, but we need additional trials to evaluate these outcomes. Likewise, we need additional randomised clinical trials to determine the effect of BCAA compared with interventions such as non-absorbable disaccharides, rifaximin, or other antibiotics.

Who's biased? A meta-analysis of buyer-seller differences in the pricing of lotteries.

PubMed

Yechiam, Eldad; Ashby, Nathaniel J S; Pachur, Thorsten

2017-05-01

A large body of empirical research has examined the impact of trading perspective on pricing of consumer products, with the typical finding being that selling prices exceed buying prices (i.e., the endowment effect). Using a meta-analytic approach, we examine to what extent the endowment effect also emerges in the pricing of monetary lotteries. As monetary lotteries have a clearly defined normative value, we also assess whether one trading perspective is more biased than the other. We consider several indicators of bias: absolute deviation from expected values, rank correlation with expected values, overall variance, and per-unit variance. The meta-analysis, which includes 35 articles, indicates that selling prices considerably exceed buying prices (Cohen's d = 0.58). Importantly, we also find that selling prices deviate less from the lotteries' expected values than buying prices, both in absolute and in relative terms. Selling prices also exhibit lower variance per unit. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling with cumulative prospect theory indicates that buyers have lower probability sensitivity and a more pronounced response bias. The finding that selling prices are more in line with normative standards than buying prices challenges the prominent account whereby sellers' valuations are upward biased due to loss aversion, and supports alternative theoretical accounts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The Diagnostic Performance of Stool DNA Testing for Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Zhai, Rong-Lin; Xu, Fei; Zhang, Pei; Zhang, Wan-Li; Wang, Hui; Wang, Ji-Liang; Cai, Kai-Lin; Long, Yue-Ping; Lu, Xiao-Ming; Tao, Kai-Xiong; Wang, Guo-Bin

2016-02-01

This meta-analysis was designed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of stool DNA testing for colorectal cancer (CRC) and compare the performance between single-gene and multiple-gene tests.MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE databases were searched using keywords colorectal cancers, stool/fecal, sensitivity, specificity, DNA, and screening. Sensitivity analysis, quality assessments, and performance bias were performed for the included studies.Fifty-three studies were included in the analysis with a total sample size of 7524 patients. The studies were heterogeneous with regard to the genes being analyzed for fecal genetic biomarkers of CRC, as well as the laboratory methods being used for each assay. The sensitivity of the different assays ranged from 2% to 100% and the specificity ranged from 81% to 100%. The meta-analysis found that the pooled sensitivities for single- and multigene assays were 48.0% and 77.8%, respectively, while the pooled specificities were 97.0% and 92.7%. Receiver operator curves and diagnostic odds ratios showed no significant difference between both tests with regard to sensitivity or specificity.This meta-analysis revealed that using assays that evaluated multiple genes compared with single-gene assays did not increase the sensitivity or specificity of stool DNA testing in detecting CRC.

Diagnostic potential of real-time elastography (RTE) and shear wave elastography (SWE) to differentiate benign and malignant thyroid nodules

PubMed Central

Hu, Xiangdong; Liu, Yujiang; Qian, Linxue

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Real-time elastography (RTE) and shear wave elastography (SWE) are noninvasive and easily available imaging techniques that measure the tissue strain, and it has been reported that the sensitivity and the specificity of elastography were better in differentiating between benign and malignant thyroid nodules than conventional technologies. Methods: Relevant articles were searched in multiple databases; the comparison of elasticity index (EI) was conducted with the Review Manager 5.0. Forest plots of the sensitivity and specificity and SROC curve of RTE and SWE were performed with STATA 10.0 software. In addition, sensitivity analysis and bias analysis of the studies were conducted to examine the quality of articles; and to estimate possible publication bias, funnel plot was used and the Egger test was conducted. Results: Finally 22 articles which eventually satisfied the inclusion criteria were included in this study. After eliminating the inefficient, benign and malignant nodules were 2106 and 613, respectively. The meta-analysis suggested that the difference of EI between benign and malignant nodules was statistically significant (SMD = 2.11, 95% CI [1.67, 2.55], P < .00001). The overall sensitivities of RTE and SWE were roughly comparable, whereas the difference of specificities between these 2 methods was statistically significant. In addition, statistically significant difference of AUC between RTE and SWE was observed between RTE and SWE (P < .01). Conclusion: The specificity of RTE was statistically higher than that of SWE; which suggests that compared with SWE, RTE may be more accurate on differentiating benign and malignant thyroid nodules. PMID:29068996

Mean cerebral blood volume is an effective diagnostic index of recurrent and radiation injury in glioma patients: A meta-analysis of diagnostic test.

PubMed

Li, Zhanzhan; Zhou, Qin; Li, Yanyan; Yan, Shipeng; Fu, Jun; Huang, Xinqiong; Shen, Liangfang

2017-02-28

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the diagnostic values of mean cerebral blood volume for recurrent and radiation injury in glioma patients. We performed systematic electronic searches for eligible study up to August 8, 2016. Bivariate mixed effects models were used to estimate the combined sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios, negative likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Fifteen studies with a total number of 576 participants were enrolled. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic were 0.88 (95%CI: 0.82-0.92) and 0.85 (95%CI: 0.68-0.93). The pooled positive likelihood ratio is 5.73 (95%CI: 2.56-12.81), negative likelihood ratio is 0.15 (95%CI: 0.10-0.22), and the diagnostic odds ratio is 39.34 (95%CI:13.96-110.84). The summary receiver operator characteristic is 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88-0.93). However, the Deek's plot suggested publication bias may exist (t=2.30, P=0.039). Mean cerebral blood volume measurement methods seems to be very sensitive and highly specific to differentiate recurrent and radiation injury in glioma patients. The results should be interpreted with caution because of the potential bias.

Differential sensitivity to the environment: contribution of cognitive biases and genes to psychological wellbeing

PubMed Central

Fox, E; Beevers, C G

2016-01-01

Negative cognitive biases and genetic variation have been associated with risk of psychopathology in largely independent lines of research. Here, we discuss ways in which these dynamic fields of research might be fruitfully combined. We propose that gene by environment (G × E) interactions may be mediated by selective cognitive biases and that certain forms of genetic ‘reactivity' or ‘sensitivity' may represent heightened sensitivity to the learning environment in a ‘for better and for worse' manner. To progress knowledge in this field, we recommend including assessments of cognitive processing biases; examining G × E interactions in ‘both' negative and positive environments; experimentally manipulating the environment when possible; and moving beyond single-gene effects to assess polygenic sensitivity scores. We formulate a new methodological framework encapsulating cognitive and genetic factors in the development of both psychopathology and optimal wellbeing that holds long-term promise for the development of new personalized therapies. PMID:27431291

Threat engagement, disengagement, and sensitivity bias in worry-prone individuals as measured by an emotional go/no-go task.

PubMed

Gole, Markus; Köchel, Angelika; Schäfer, Axel; Schienle, Anne

2012-03-01

The goal of the present study was to investigate a threat engagement, disengagement, and sensitivity bias in individuals suffering from pathological worry. Twenty participants high in worry proneness and 16 control participants low in worry proneness completed an emotional go/no-go task with worry-related threat words and neutral words. Shorter reaction times (i.e., threat engagement bias), smaller omission error rates (i.e., threat sensitivity bias), and larger commission error rates (i.e., threat disengagement bias) emerged only in the high worry group when worry-related words constituted the go-stimuli and neutral words the no-go stimuli. Also, smaller omission error rates as well as larger commission error rates were observed in the high worry group relative to the low worry group when worry-related go stimuli and neutral no-go stimuli were used. The obtained results await further replication within a generalized anxiety disorder sample. Also, further samples should include men as well. Our data suggest that worry-prone individuals are threat-sensitive, engage more rapidly with aversion, and disengage harder. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study Sensitivity: Evaluating the Ability to Detect Effects in Systematic Reviews of Chemical Exposures

PubMed Central

Cooper, Glinda S.; Lunn, Ruth M.; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Glenn, Barbara S.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Luke, April M.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

A critical step in systematic reviews of potential health hazards is the structured evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the included studies; risk of bias is a term often used to represent this process, specifically with respect to the evaluation of systematic errors that can lead to inaccurate (biased) results (i.e. focusing on internal validity). Systematic review methods developed in the clinical medicine arena have been adapted for use in evaluating environmental health hazards; this expansion raises questions about the scope of risk of bias tools and the extent to which they capture the elements that can affect the interpretation of results from environmental and occupational epidemiology studies and in vivo animal toxicology studies, (the studies typically available for assessment of risk of chemicals). One such element, described here as “sensitivity”, is a measure of the ability of a study to detect a true effect or hazard. This concept is similar to the concept of the sensitivity of an assay; an insensitive study may fail to show a difference that truly exists, leading to a false conclusion of no effect. Factors relating to study sensitivity should be evaluated in a systematic manner with the same rigor as the evaluation of other elements within a risk of bias framework. We discuss the importance of this component for the interpretation of individual studies, examine approaches proposed or in use to address it, and describe how it relates to other evaluation components. The evaluation domains contained within a risk of bias tool can include, or can be modified to include, some features relating to study sensitivity; the explicit inclusion of these sensitivity criteria with the same rigor and at the same stage of study evaluation as other bias-related criteria can improve the evaluation process. In some cases, these and other features may be better addressed through a separate sensitivity domain. The combined evaluation of risk of bias and sensitivity can be used to identify the most informative studies, to evaluate the confidence of the findings from individual studies and to identify those study elements that may help to explain heterogeneity across the body of literature. PMID:27156196

A simple technique investigating baseline heterogeneity helped to eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses.

PubMed

Hicks, Amy; Fairhurst, Caroline; Torgerson, David J

2018-03-01

To perform a worked example of an approach that can be used to identify and remove potentially biased trials from meta-analyses via the analysis of baseline variables. True randomisation produces treatment groups that differ only by chance; therefore, a meta-analysis of a baseline measurement should produce no overall difference and zero heterogeneity. A meta-analysis from the British Medical Journal, known to contain significant heterogeneity and imbalance in baseline age, was chosen. Meta-analyses of baseline variables were performed and trials systematically removed, starting with those with the largest t-statistic, until the I 2 measure of heterogeneity became 0%, then the outcome meta-analysis repeated with only the remaining trials as a sensitivity check. We argue that heterogeneity in a meta-analysis of baseline variables should not exist, and therefore removing trials which contribute to heterogeneity from a meta-analysis will produce a more valid result. In our example none of the overall outcomes changed when studies contributing to heterogeneity were removed. We recommend routine use of this technique, using age and a second baseline variable predictive of outcome for the particular study chosen, to help eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Guo, Rui; Ma, Lu; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

2017-12-01

Hematoma expansion is independently associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Blend sign is a simple predictor for hematoma expansion on non-contrast computed tomography. However, its accuracy for predicting hematoma expansion is inconsistent in previous studies. This meta-analysis is aimed to systematically assess the performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was conducted. Original studies about predictive accuracy of blend sign for hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve was constructed. Publication bias was assessed by Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. A total of 5 studies with 2248 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.28, 0.92, 3.4 and 0.78, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.85. No significant publication bias was found. This meta-analysis demonstrates that blend sign is a useful predictor with high specificity for hematoma expansion in ICH. Further studies with larger sample size are still necessary to verify the accuracy of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of a numerical wave model on wind re-analysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavidas, George; Venugopal, Vengatesan; Friedrich, Daniel

2017-03-01

Wind is the dominant process for wave generation. Detailed evaluation of metocean conditions strengthens our understanding of issues concerning potential offshore applications. However, the scarcity of buoys and high cost of monitoring systems pose a barrier to properly defining offshore conditions. Through use of numerical wave models, metocean conditions can be hindcasted and forecasted providing reliable characterisations. This study reports the sensitivity of wind inputs on a numerical wave model for the Scottish region. Two re-analysis wind datasets with different spatio-temporal characteristics are used, the ERA-Interim Re-Analysis and the CFSR-NCEP Re-Analysis dataset. Different wind products alter results, affecting the accuracy obtained. The scope of this study is to assess different available wind databases and provide information concerning the most appropriate wind dataset for the specific region, based on temporal, spatial and geographic terms for wave modelling and offshore applications. Both wind input datasets delivered results from the numerical wave model with good correlation. Wave results by the 1-h dataset have higher peaks and lower biases, in expense of a high scatter index. On the other hand, the 6-h dataset has lower scatter but higher biases. The study shows how wind dataset affects the numerical wave modelling performance, and that depending on location and study needs, different wind inputs should be considered.

Veterinary homeopathy: meta-analysis of randomised placebo-controlled trials.

PubMed

Mathie, Robert T; Clausen, Jürgen

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of veterinary homeopathy has not previously been undertaken. For all medical conditions and species collectively, we tested the hypothesis that the outcome of homeopathic intervention (treatment and/or prophylaxis, individualised and/or non-individualised) is distinguishable from corresponding intervention using placebos. All facets of the review, including literature search strategy, study eligibility, data extraction and assessment of risk of bias, were described in an earlier paper. A trial was judged to comprise reliable evidence if its risk of bias was low or was unclear in specific domains of assessment. Effect size was reported as odds ratio (OR). A trial was judged free of vested interest if it was not funded by a homeopathic pharmacy. Meta-analysis was conducted using the random-effects model, with hypothesis-driven sensitivity analysis based on risk of bias. Nine of 15 trials with extractable data displayed high risk of bias; low or unclear risk of bias was attributed to each of the remaining six trials, only two of which comprised reliable evidence without overt vested interest. For all N = 15 trials, pooled OR = 1.69 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12 to 2.56]; P = 0.01. For the N = 2 trials with suitably reliable evidence, pooled OR = 2.62 [95% CI, 1.13 to 6.05]; P = 0.02). Meta-analysis provides some very limited evidence that clinical intervention in animals using homeopathic medicines is distinguishable from corresponding intervention using placebos. The low number and quality of the trials hinders a more decisive conclusion. Copyright © 2014 The Faculty of Homeopathy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptualization of the Complex Outcomes of Sexual Abuse: A Signal Detection Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pechtel, Pia; Evans, Ian M.; Podd, John V.

2011-01-01

Eighty-five New Zealand based practitioners experienced in treating adults with a history of child sexual abuse participated in an online judgment study of child sexual abuse outcomes using signal detection theory methodology. Participants' level of sensitivity was assessed independent of their degree of response bias when discriminating (a) known…

Number-counts slope estimation in the presence of Poisson noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, Juergen H. M. M.; Maccacaro, Tommaso

1986-01-01

The slope determination of a power-law number flux relationship in the case of photon-limited sampling. This case is important for high-sensitivity X-ray surveys with imaging telescopes, where the error in an individual source measurement depends on integrated flux and is Poisson, rather than Gaussian, distributed. A bias-free method of slope estimation is developed that takes into account the exact error distribution, the influence of background noise, and the effects of varying limiting sensitivities. It is shown that the resulting bias corrections are quite insensitive to the bias correction procedures applied, as long as only sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or greater are considered. However, if sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or less are included, the derived bias corrections depend sensitively on the shape of the error distribution.

Differential sensitivity of the Response Bias Scale (RBS) and MMPI-2 validity scales to memory complaints.

PubMed

Gervais, Roger O; Ben-Porath, Yossef S; Wygant, Dustin B; Green, Paul

2008-12-01

The MMPI-2 Response Bias Scale (RBS) is designed to detect response bias in forensic neuropsychological and disability assessment settings. Validation studies have demonstrated that the scale is sensitive to cognitive response bias as determined by failure on the Word Memory Test (WMT) and other symptom validity tests. Exaggerated memory complaints are a common feature of cognitive response bias. The present study was undertaken to determine the extent to which the RBS is sensitive to memory complaints and how it compares in this regard to other MMPI-2 validity scales and indices. This archival study used MMPI-2 and Memory Complaints Inventory (MCI) data from 1550 consecutive non-head-injury disability-related referrals to the first author's private practice. ANOVA results indicated significant increases in memory complaints across increasing RBS score ranges with large effect sizes. Regression analyses indicated that the RBS was a better predictor of the mean memory complaints score than the F, F(B), and F(P) validity scales and the FBS. There was no correlation between the RBS and the CVLT, an objective measure of verbal memory. These findings suggest that elevated scores on the RBS are associated with over-reporting of memory problems, which provides further external validation of the RBS as a sensitive measure of cognitive response bias. Interpretive guidelines for the RBS are provided.

The Role of Response Bias in Perceptual Learning

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Sensory judgments improve with practice. Such perceptual learning is often thought to reflect an increase in perceptual sensitivity. However, it may also represent a decrease in response bias, with unpracticed observers acting in part on a priori hunches rather than sensory evidence. To examine whether this is the case, 55 observers practiced making a basic auditory judgment (yes/no amplitude-modulation detection or forced-choice frequency/amplitude discrimination) over multiple days. With all tasks, bias was present initially, but decreased with practice. Notably, this was the case even on supposedly “bias-free,” 2-alternative forced-choice, tasks. In those tasks, observers did not favor the same response throughout (stationary bias), but did favor whichever response had been correct on previous trials (nonstationary bias). Means of correcting for bias are described. When applied, these showed that at least 13% of perceptual learning on a forced-choice task was due to reduction in bias. In other situations, changes in bias were shown to obscure the true extent of learning, with changes in estimated sensitivity increasing once bias was corrected for. The possible causes of bias and the implications for our understanding of perceptual learning are discussed. PMID:25867609

Validation of satellite-based rainfall in Kalahari

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lekula, Moiteela; Lubczynski, Maciek W.; Shemang, Elisha M.; Verhoef, Wouter

2018-06-01

Water resources management in arid and semi-arid areas is hampered by insufficient rainfall data, typically obtained from sparsely distributed rain gauges. Satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) are alternative sources of such data in these areas. In this study, daily rainfall estimates from FEWS-RFE∼11 km, TRMM-3B42∼27 km, CMOPRH∼27 km and CMORPH∼8 km were evaluated against nine, daily rain gauge records in Central Kalahari Basin (CKB), over a five-year period, 01/01/2001-31/12/2005. The aims were to evaluate the daily rainfall detection capabilities of the four SRE algorithms, analyze the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall in the CKB and perform bias-correction of the four SREs. Evaluation methods included scatter plot analysis, descriptive statistics, categorical statistics and bias decomposition. The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, was assessed using the SREs' mean annual rainfall, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and spatial correlation functions. Bias correction of the four SREs was conducted using a Time-Varying Space-Fixed bias-correction scheme. The results underlined the importance of validating daily SREs, as they had different rainfall detection capabilities in the CKB. The FEWS-RFE∼11 km performed best, providing better results of descriptive and categorical statistics than the other three SREs, although bias decomposition showed that all SREs underestimated rainfall. The analysis showed that the most reliable SREs performance analysis indicator were the frequency of "miss" rainfall events and the "miss-bias", as they directly indicated SREs' sensitivity and bias of rainfall detection, respectively. The Time Varying and Space Fixed (TVSF) bias-correction scheme, improved some error measures but resulted in the reduction of the spatial correlation distance, thus increased, already high, spatial rainfall variability of all the four SREs. This study highlighted SREs as valuable source of daily rainfall data providing good spatio-temporal data coverage especially suitable for areas with limited rain gauges, such as the CKB, but also emphasized SREs' drawbacks, creating avenue for follow up research.

Validating a Local Failure Risk Stratification for Use in Prospective Studies of Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Bladder Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumann, Brian C.; He, Jiwei; Hwang, Wei-Ting

Purpose: To inform prospective trials of adjuvant radiation therapy (adj-RT) for bladder cancer after radical cystectomy, a locoregional failure (LF) risk stratification was proposed. This stratification was developed and validated using surgical databases that may not reflect the outcomes expected in prospective trials. Our purpose was to assess sources of bias that may affect the stratification model's validity or alter the LF risk estimates for each subgroup: time bias due to evolving surgical techniques; trial accrual bias due to inclusion of patients who would be ineligible for adj-RT trials because of early disease progression, death, or loss to follow-up shortlymore » after cystectomy; bias due to different statistical methods to estimate LF; and subgrouping bias due to different definitions of the LF subgroups. Methods and Materials: The LF risk stratification was developed using a single-institution cohort (n=442, 1990-2008) and the multi-institutional SWOG 8710 cohort (n=264, 1987-1998) treated with radical cystectomy with or without chemotherapy. We evaluated the sensitivity of the stratification to sources of bias using Fine-Gray regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Results: Year of radical cystectomy was not associated with LF risk on univariate or multivariate analysis after controlling for risk group. By use of more stringent inclusion criteria, 26 SWOG patients (10%) and 60 patients from the single-institution cohort (14%) were excluded. Analysis of the remaining patients confirmed 3 subgroups with significantly different LF risks with 3-year rates of 7%, 17%, and 36%, respectively (P<.01), nearly identical to the rates without correcting for trial accrual bias. Kaplan-Meier techniques estimated higher subgroup LF rates than competing risk analysis. The subgroup definitions used in the NRG-GU001 adj-RT trial were validated. Conclusions: These sources of bias did not invalidate the LF risk stratification or substantially change the model's LF estimates.« less

Evaluation of Fission Product Critical Experiments and Associated Biases for Burnup Credit Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mueller, Don; Rearden, Bradley T; Reed, Davis Allan

2010-01-01

One of the challenges associated with implementation of burnup credit is the validation of criticality calculations used in the safety evaluation; in particular the availability and use of applicable critical experiment data. The purpose of the validation is to quantify the relationship between reality and calculated results. Validation and determination of bias and bias uncertainty require the identification of sets of critical experiments that are similar to the criticality safety models. A principal challenge for crediting fission products (FP) in a burnup credit safety evaluation is the limited availability of relevant FP critical experiments for bias and bias uncertainty determination.more » This paper provides an evaluation of the available critical experiments that include FPs, along with bounding, burnup-dependent estimates of FP biases generated by combining energy dependent sensitivity data for a typical burnup credit application with the nuclear data uncertainty information distributed with SCALE 6. A method for determining separate bias and bias uncertainty values for individual FPs and illustrative results is presented. Finally, a FP bias calculation method based on data adjustment techniques and reactivity sensitivity coefficients calculated with the SCALE sensitivity/uncertainty tools and some typical results is presented. Using the methods described in this paper, the cross-section bias for a representative high-capacity spent fuel cask associated with the ENDF/B-VII nuclear data for 16 most important stable or near stable FPs is predicted to be no greater than 2% of the total worth of the 16 FPs, or less than 0.13 % k/k.« less

Observability of satellite launcher navigation with INS, GPS, attitude sensors and reference trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaudoin, Yanick; Desbiens, André; Gagnon, Eric; Landry, René

2018-01-01

The navigation system of a satellite launcher is of paramount importance. In order to correct the trajectory of the launcher, the position, velocity and attitude must be known with the best possible precision. In this paper, the observability of four navigation solutions is investigated. The first one is the INS/GPS couple. Then, attitude reference sensors, such as magnetometers, are added to the INS/GPS solution. The authors have already demonstrated that the reference trajectory could be used to improve the navigation performance. This approach is added to the two previously mentioned navigation systems. For each navigation solution, the observability is analyzed with different sensor error models. First, sensor biases are neglected. Then, sensor biases are modelled as random walks and as first order Markov processes. The observability is tested with the rank and condition number of the observability matrix, the time evolution of the covariance matrix and sensitivity to measurement outlier tests. The covariance matrix is exploited to evaluate the correlation between states in order to detect structural unobservability problems. Finally, when an unobservable subspace is detected, the result is verified with theoretical analysis of the navigation equations. The results show that evaluating only the observability of a model does not guarantee the ability of the aiding sensors to correct the INS estimates within the mission time. The analysis of the covariance matrix time evolution could be a powerful tool to detect this situation, however in some cases, the problem is only revealed with a sensitivity to measurement outlier test. None of the tested solutions provide GPS position bias observability. For the considered mission, the modelling of the sensor biases as random walks or Markov processes gives equivalent results. Relying on the reference trajectory can improve the precision of the roll estimates. But, in the context of a satellite launcher, the roll estimation error and gyroscope bias are only observable if attitude reference sensors are present.

How Efficacious is Danshen (Salvia miltiorrhiza) Dripping Pill in Treating Angina Pectoris? Evidence Assessment for Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Jia, Yongliang; Leung, Siu-Wai

2017-09-01

More than 230 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of danshen dripping pill (DSP) and isosorbide dinitrate (ISDN) in treating angina pectoris after the first preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses-compliant comprehensive meta-analysis were published in 2010. Other meta-analyses had flaws in study selection, statistical meta-analysis, and evidence assessment. This study completed the meta-analysis with an extensive assessment of the evidence. RCTs published from 1994 to 2016 on DSP and ISDN in treating angina pectoris for at least 4 weeks were included. The risk of bias (RoB) of included RCTs was assessed with the Cochrane's tool for assessing RoB. Meta-analyses based on a random-effects model were performed on two outcome measures: symptomatic (SYM) and electrocardiography (ECG) improvements. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, metaregression, and publication bias analysis were also conducted. The evidence strength was evaluated with the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) method. Among the included 109 RCTs with 11,973 participants, 49 RCTs and 5042 participants were new (after 2010). The RoB of included RCTs was high in randomization and blinding. Overall effect sizes in odds ratios for DSP over ISDN were 2.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.53-3.41) on SYM (n = 108) and 2.37 (95% CI: 2.08-2.69) by ECG (n = 81) with significant heterogeneities (I 2  = 41%, p < 0.0001 on SYM and I 2  = 44%, p < 0.0001 on ECG). Subgroup, sensitivity, and metaregression analyses showed consistent results without publication bias. However, the evidence strength was low in GRADE. The efficacy of DSP was still better than ISDN in treating angina pectoris, but the confidence decreased due to high RoB and heterogeneities.

Study sensitivity: Evaluating the ability to detect effects in systematic reviews of chemical exposures.

PubMed

Cooper, Glinda S; Lunn, Ruth M; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Glenn, Barbara S; Kraft, Andrew D; Luke, April M; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M

2016-01-01

A critical step in systematic reviews of potential health hazards is the structured evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the included studies; risk of bias is a term often used to represent this process, specifically with respect to the evaluation of systematic errors that can lead to inaccurate (biased) results (i.e. focusing on internal validity). Systematic review methods developed in the clinical medicine arena have been adapted for use in evaluating environmental health hazards; this expansion raises questions about the scope of risk of bias tools and the extent to which they capture the elements that can affect the interpretation of results from environmental and occupational epidemiology studies and in vivo animal toxicology studies, (the studies typically available for assessment of risk of chemicals). One such element, described here as "sensitivity", is a measure of the ability of a study to detect a true effect or hazard. This concept is similar to the concept of the sensitivity of an assay; an insensitive study may fail to show a difference that truly exists, leading to a false conclusion of no effect. Factors relating to study sensitivity should be evaluated in a systematic manner with the same rigor as the evaluation of other elements within a risk of bias framework. We discuss the importance of this component for the interpretation of individual studies, examine approaches proposed or in use to address it, and describe how it relates to other evaluation components. The evaluation domains contained within a risk of bias tool can include, or can be modified to include, some features relating to study sensitivity; the explicit inclusion of these sensitivity criteria with the same rigor and at the same stage of study evaluation as other bias-related criteria can improve the evaluation process. In some cases, these and other features may be better addressed through a separate sensitivity domain. The combined evaluation of risk of bias and sensitivity can be used to identify the most informative studies, to evaluate the confidence of the findings from individual studies and to identify those study elements that may help to explain heterogeneity across the body of literature. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Diagnostic Performance of Narrow Band Imaging for Nasopharyngeal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Changling; Zhang, Yayun; Han, Xue; Du, Xiaodong

2018-03-01

Objective The purposes of this study were to verify the effectiveness of the narrow band imaging (NBI) system in diagnosing nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) as compared with white light endoscopy. Data Sources PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, CNKI, and Wan Fang databases. Review Methods Data analyses were performed with Meta-Disc. The updated Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool was used to assess study quality and potential bias. Publication bias was assessed with a Deeks asymmetry test. The registry number of the protocol published on PROSPERO is CRD42015026244. Results This meta-analysis included 10 studies of 1337 lesions. For NBI diagnosis of NPC, the pooled values were as follows: sensitivity, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86); specificity, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.89-0.93); positive likelihood ratio, 8.82 (95% CI, 5.12-15.21); negative likelihood ratio, 0.18 (95% CI, 0.12-0.27); and diagnostic odds ratio, 65.73 (95% CI, 36.74-117.60). The area under the curve was 0.9549. For white light endoscopy in diagnosing NPC, the pooled values were as follows: sensitivity, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.83); specificity, 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.90); positive likelihood ratio, 5.02 (95% CI, 1.99-12.65); negative likelihood ratio, 0.34 (95% CI, 0.24-0.49); and diagnostic odds ratio, 16.89 (95% CI, 5.98-47.66). The area under the curve was 0.8627. The evaluation of heterogeneity, calculated per the diagnostic odds ratio, gave an I 2 of 0.326. No marked publication bias ( P = .68) existed in this meta-analysis. Conclusion The sensitivity and specificity of NBI for the diagnosis of NPC are similar to those of white light endoscopy, and the potential value of NBI for the diagnosis of NPC needs to be validated further.

Error analysis applied to several inversion techniques used for the retrieval of middle atmospheric constituents from limb-scanning MM-wave spectroscopic measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puliafito, E.; Bevilacqua, R.; Olivero, J.; Degenhardt, W.

1992-01-01

The formal retrieval error analysis of Rodgers (1990) allows the quantitative determination of such retrieval properties as measurement error sensitivity, resolution, and inversion bias. This technique was applied to five numerical inversion techniques and two nonlinear iterative techniques used for the retrieval of middle atmospheric constituent concentrations from limb-scanning millimeter-wave spectroscopic measurements. It is found that the iterative methods have better vertical resolution, but are slightly more sensitive to measurement error than constrained matrix methods. The iterative methods converge to the exact solution, whereas two of the matrix methods under consideration have an explicit constraint, the sensitivity of the solution to the a priori profile. Tradeoffs of these retrieval characteristics are presented.

The Response Dynamics of Recognition Memory: Sensitivity and Bias

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koop, Gregory J.; Criss, Amy H.

2016-01-01

Advances in theories of memory are hampered by insufficient metrics for measuring memory. The goal of this paper is to further the development of model-independent, sensitive empirical measures of the recognition decision process. We evaluate whether metrics from continuous mouse tracking, or response dynamics, uniquely identify response bias and…

Developing a Method for Resolving NOx Emission Inventory Biases Using Discrete Kalman Filter Inversion, Direct Sensitivities, and Satellite-Based Columns

EPA Science Inventory

An inverse method was developed to integrate satellite observations of atmospheric pollutant column concentrations and direct sensitivities predicted by a regional air quality model in order to discern biases in the emissions of the pollutant precursors.

An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses: Criticality (k eff) Predictions

DOE PAGES

Scaglione, John M.; Mueller, Don E.; Wagner, John C.

2014-12-01

One of the most important remaining challenges associated with expanded implementation of burnup credit in the United States is the validation of depletion and criticality calculations used in the safety evaluation—in particular, the availability and use of applicable measured data to support validation, especially for fission products (FPs). Applicants and regulatory reviewers have been constrained by both a scarcity of data and a lack of clear technical basis or approach for use of the data. In this study, this paper describes a validation approach for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) criticality safety (k eff) evaluations based on best-available data andmore » methods and applies the approach for representative SNF storage and transport configurations/conditions to demonstrate its usage and applicability, as well as to provide reference bias results. The criticality validation approach utilizes not only available laboratory critical experiment (LCE) data from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the French Haut Taux de Combustion program to support validation of the principal actinides but also calculated sensitivities, nuclear data uncertainties, and limited available FP LCE data to predict and verify individual biases for relevant minor actinides and FPs. The results demonstrate that (a) sufficient critical experiment data exist to adequately validate k eff calculations via conventional validation approaches for the primary actinides, (b) sensitivity-based critical experiment selection is more appropriate for generating accurate application model bias and uncertainty, and (c) calculated sensitivities and nuclear data uncertainties can be used for generating conservative estimates of bias for minor actinides and FPs. Results based on the SCALE 6.1 and the ENDF/B-VII.0 cross-section libraries indicate that a conservative estimate of the bias for the minor actinides and FPs is 1.5% of their worth within the application model. Finally, this paper provides a detailed description of the approach and its technical bases, describes the application of the approach for representative pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor safety analysis models, and provides reference bias results based on the prerelease SCALE 6.1 code package and ENDF/B-VII nuclear cross-section data.« less

Identifying Depressed Older Adults in Primary Care: A Secondary Analysis of a Multisite Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Voils, Corrine I.; Olsen, Maren K.; Williams, John W.; for the IMPACT Study Investigators

2008-01-01

Objective: To determine whether a subset of depressive symptoms could be identified to facilitate diagnosis of depression in older adults in primary care. Method: Secondary analysis was conducted on 898 participants aged 60 years or older with major depressive disorder and/or dysthymic disorder (according to DSM-IV criteria) who participated in the Improving Mood–Promoting Access to Collaborative Treatment (IMPACT) study, a multisite, randomized trial of collaborative care for depression (recruitment from July 1999 to August 2001). Linear regression was used to identify a core subset of depressive symptoms associated with decreased social, physical, and mental functioning. The sensitivity and specificity, adjusting for selection bias, were evaluated for these symptoms. The sensitivity and specificity of a second subset of 4 depressive symptoms previously validated in a midlife sample was also evaluated. Results: Psychomotor changes, fatigue, and suicidal ideation were associated with decreased functioning and served as the core set of symptoms. Adjusting for selection bias, the sensitivity of these 3 symptoms was 0.012 and specificity 0.994. The sensitivity of the 4 symptoms previously validated in a midlife sample was 0.019 and specificity was 0.997. Conclusion: We identified 3 depression symptoms that were highly specific for major depressive disorder in older adults. However, these symptoms and a previously identified subset were too insensitive for accurate diagnosis. Therefore, we recommend a full assessment of DSM-IV depression criteria for accurate diagnosis. PMID:18311416

A Statistical Simulation Approach to Safe Life Fatigue Analysis of Redundant Metallic Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, William T.; Neal, Donald M.

1997-01-01

This paper introduces a dual active load path fail-safe fatigue design concept analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. The concept utilizes the inherent fatigue life differences between selected pairs of components for an active dual path system, enhanced by a stress level bias in one component. The design is applied to a baseline design; a safe life fatigue problem studied in an American Helicopter Society (AHS) round robin. The dual active path design is compared with a two-element standby fail-safe system and the baseline design for life at specified reliability levels and weight. The sensitivity of life estimates for both the baseline and fail-safe designs was examined by considering normal and Weibull distribution laws and coefficient of variation levels. Results showed that the biased dual path system lifetimes, for both the first element failure and residual life, were much greater than for standby systems. The sensitivity of the residual life-weight relationship was not excessive at reliability levels up to R = 0.9999 and the weight penalty was small. The sensitivity of life estimates increases dramatically at higher reliability levels.

Colour vision and response bias in a coral reef fish.

PubMed

Cheney, Karen L; Newport, Cait; McClure, Eva C; Marshall, N Justin

2013-08-01

Animals use coloured signals for a variety of communication purposes, including to attract potential mates, recognize individuals, defend territories and warn predators of secondary defences (aposematism). To understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution and design of such visual signals, it is important to understand the visual systems and potential response biases of signal receivers. Here, we provide raw data on the spectral capabilities of a coral reef fish, the Picasso triggerfish Rhinecanthus aculeatus, which is potentially trichromatic with three cone sensitivities of 413 nm (single cone), 480 nm (double cone, medium sensitivity) and 528 nm (double cone, long sensitivity), and a rod sensitivity of 498 nm. The ocular media have a 50% transmission cut off at 405 nm. Behavioural experiments confirmed colour vision over their spectral range; triggerfish were significantly more likely to choose coloured stimuli over grey distractors, irrespective of luminance. We then examined whether response biases existed towards coloured and patterned stimuli to provide insight into how visual signals - in particular, aposematic colouration - may evolve. Triggerfish showed a preferential foraging response bias to red and green stimuli, in contrast to blue and yellow, irrespective of pattern. There was no response bias to patterned over monochromatic non-patterned stimuli. A foraging response bias towards red in fish differs from that of avian predators, who often avoid red food items. Red is frequently associated with warning colouration in terrestrial environments (ladybirds, snakes, frogs), whilst blue is used in aquatic environments (blue-ringed octopus, nudibranchs); whether the design of warning (aposematic) displays is a cause or consequence of response biases is unclear.

A novel bi-level meta-analysis approach: applied to biological pathway analysis.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tin; Tagett, Rebecca; Donato, Michele; Mitrea, Cristina; Draghici, Sorin

2016-02-01

The accumulation of high-throughput data in public repositories creates a pressing need for integrative analysis of multiple datasets from independent experiments. However, study heterogeneity, study bias, outliers and the lack of power of available methods present real challenge in integrating genomic data. One practical drawback of many P-value-based meta-analysis methods, including Fisher's, Stouffer's, minP and maxP, is that they are sensitive to outliers. Another drawback is that, because they perform just one statistical test for each individual experiment, they may not fully exploit the potentially large number of samples within each study. We propose a novel bi-level meta-analysis approach that employs the additive method and the Central Limit Theorem within each individual experiment and also across multiple experiments. We prove that the bi-level framework is robust against bias, less sensitive to outliers than other methods, and more sensitive to small changes in signal. For comparative analysis, we demonstrate that the intra-experiment analysis has more power than the equivalent statistical test performed on a single large experiment. For pathway analysis, we compare the proposed framework versus classical meta-analysis approaches (Fisher's, Stouffer's and the additive method) as well as against a dedicated pathway meta-analysis package (MetaPath), using 1252 samples from 21 datasets related to three human diseases, acute myeloid leukemia (9 datasets), type II diabetes (5 datasets) and Alzheimer's disease (7 datasets). Our framework outperforms its competitors to correctly identify pathways relevant to the phenotypes. The framework is sufficiently general to be applied to any type of statistical meta-analysis. The R scripts are available on demand from the authors. sorin@wayne.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modulation-format-free and automatic bias control for optical IQ modulators based on dither-correlation detection.

PubMed

Li, Xiaolei; Deng, Lei; Chen, Xiaoman; Cheng, Mengfan; Fu, Songnian; Tang, Ming; Liu, Deming

2017-04-17

A novel automatic bias control (ABC) method for optical in-phase and quadrature (IQ) modulator is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. In the proposed method, two different low frequency sine wave dither signals are generated and added on to the I/Q bias signal respectively. Instead of power monitoring of the harmonics of the dither signal, dither-correlation detection is proposed and used to adjust the bias voltages of the optical IQ modulator. By this way, not only frequency spectral analysis isn't required but also the directional bias adjustment could be realized, resulting in the decrease of algorithm complexity and the growth of convergence rate of ABC algorithm. The results show that the sensitivity of the proposed ABC method outperforms that of the traditional dither frequency monitoring method. Moreover, the proposed ABC method is proved to be modulation-format-free, and the transmission penalty caused by this method for both 10 Gb/s optical QPSK and 17.9 Gb/s optical 16QAM-OFDM signal transmission are negligible in our experiment.

Smoking paradox in the development of psoriatic arthritis among patients with psoriasis: a population-based study.

PubMed

Nguyen, Uyen-Sa D T; Zhang, Yuqing; Lu, Na; Louie-Gao, Qiong; Niu, Jingbo; Ogdie, Alexis; Gelfand, Joel M; LaValley, Michael P; Dubreuil, Maureen; Sparks, Jeffrey A; Karlson, Elizabeth W; Choi, Hyon K

2018-01-01

Smoking is associated with an increased risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in the general population, but not among patients with psoriasis. We sought to clarify the possible methodological mechanisms behind this paradox. Using 1995-2015 data from The Health Improvement Network, we performed survival analysis to examine the association between smoking and incident PsA in the general population and among patients with psoriasis. We clarified the paradox using mediation analysis and conducted bias sensitivity analyses to evaluate the potential impact of index event bias and quantify its magnitude from uncontrolled/unmeasured confounders. Of 6.65 million subjects without PsA at baseline, 225 213 participants had psoriasis and 7057 developed incident PsA. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of PsA in the general population (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.36), but with a decreased risk among patients with psoriasis (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99). Mediation analysis showed that the effect of smoking on the risk of PsA was mediated almost entirely through its effect on psoriasis. Bias-sensitivity analyses indicated that even when the relation of uncontrolled confounders to either smoking or PsA was modest (both HRs=~1.5), it could reverse the biased effect of smoking among patients with psoriasis (HR=0.9). In this large cohort representative of the UK general population, smoking was positively associated with PsA risk in the general population, but negatively associated among patients with psoriasis. Conditioning on a causal intermediate variable (psoriasis) may even reverse the association between smoking and PsA, potentially explaining the smoking paradox for the risk of PsA among patients with psoriasis. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mather, Janice L.; Taylor, Shawn C.

2015-01-01

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

Velocity overshoot decay mechanisms in compound semiconductor field-effect transistors with a submicron characteristic length

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jyegal, Jang, E-mail: jjyegal@inu.ac.kr

Velocity overshoot is a critically important nonstationary effect utilized for the enhanced performance of submicron field-effect devices fabricated with high-electron-mobility compound semiconductors. However, the physical mechanisms of velocity overshoot decay dynamics in the devices are not known in detail. Therefore, a numerical analysis is conducted typically for a submicron GaAs metal-semiconductor field-effect transistor in order to elucidate the physical mechanisms. It is found that there exist three different mechanisms, depending on device bias conditions. Specifically, at large drain biases corresponding to the saturation drain current (dc) region, the velocity overshoot suddenly begins to drop very sensitively due to the onsetmore » of a rapid decrease of the momentum relaxation time, not the mobility, arising from the effect of velocity-randomizing intervalley scattering. It then continues to drop rapidly and decays completely by severe mobility reduction due to intervalley scattering. On the other hand, at small drain biases corresponding to the linear dc region, the velocity overshoot suddenly begins to drop very sensitively due to the onset of a rapid increase of thermal energy diffusion by electrons in the channel of the gate. It then continues to drop rapidly for a certain channel distance due to the increasing thermal energy diffusion effect, and later completely decays by a sharply decreasing electric field. Moreover, at drain biases close to a dc saturation voltage, the mechanism is a mixture of the above two bias conditions. It is suggested that a large secondary-valley energy separation is essential to increase the performance of submicron devices.« less

Characterizing sampling and quality screening biases in infrared and microwave limb sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millán, Luis F.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; von Clarmann, Thomas

2018-03-01

This study investigates orbital sampling biases and evaluates the additional impact caused by data quality screening for the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MIPAS acts as a proxy for typical infrared limb emission sounders, while MLS acts as a proxy for microwave limb sounders. These biases were calculated for temperature and several trace gases by interpolating model fields to real sampling patterns and, additionally, screening those locations as directed by their corresponding quality criteria. Both instruments have dense uniform sampling patterns typical of limb emission sounders, producing almost identical sampling biases. However, there is a substantial difference between the number of locations discarded. MIPAS, as a mid-infrared instrument, is very sensitive to clouds, and measurements affected by them are thus rejected from the analysis. For example, in the tropics, the MIPAS yield is strongly affected by clouds, while MLS is mostly unaffected. The results show that upper-tropospheric sampling biases in zonally averaged data, for both instruments, can be up to 10 to 30 %, depending on the species, and up to 3 K for temperature. For MIPAS, the sampling reduction due to quality screening worsens the biases, leading to values as large as 30 to 100 % for the trace gases and expanding the 3 K bias region for temperature. This type of sampling bias is largely induced by the geophysical origins of the screening (e.g. clouds). Further, analysis of long-term time series reveals that these additional quality screening biases may affect the ability to accurately detect upper-tropospheric long-term changes using such data. In contrast, MLS data quality screening removes sufficiently few points that no additional bias is introduced, although its penetration is limited to the upper troposphere, while MIPAS may cover well into the mid-troposphere in cloud-free scenarios. We emphasize that the results of this study refer only to the representativeness of the respective data, not to their intrinsic quality.

Biased information search in homogeneous groups: confidence as a moderator for the effect of anticipated task requirements.

PubMed

Kerschreiter, Rudolf; Schulz-Hardt, Stefan; Mojzisch, Andreas; Frey, Dieter

2008-05-01

When searching for information, groups that are homogeneous regarding their members' prediscussion decision preferences show a strong bias for information that supports rather than conflicts with the prevailing opinion (confirmation bias). The present research examined whether homogeneous groups blindly search for information confirming their beliefs irrespective of the anticipated task or whether they are sensitive to the usefulness of new information for this forthcoming task. Results of three experiments show that task sensitivity depends on the groups' confidence in the correctness of their decision: Moderately confident groups displayed a strong confirmation bias when they anticipated having to give reasons for their decision but showed a balanced information search or even a dis confirmation bias (i.e., predominately seeking conflicting information) when they anticipated having to refute counterarguments. In contrast, highly confident groups demonstrated a strong confirmation bias independent of the anticipated task requirements.

Bias and discriminability during emotional signal detection in melancholic depression.

PubMed

Hyett, Matthew; Parker, Gordon; Breakspear, Michael

2014-04-27

Cognitive disturbances in depression are pernicious and so contribute strongly to the burden of the disorder. Cognitive function has been traditionally studied by challenging subjects with modality-specific psychometric tasks and analysing performance using standard analysis of variance. Whilst informative, such an approach may miss deeper perceptual and inferential mechanisms that potentially unify apparently divergent emotional and cognitive deficits. Here, we sought to elucidate basic psychophysical processes underlying the detection of emotionally salient signals across individuals with melancholic and non-melancholic depression. Sixty participants completed an Affective Go/No-Go (AGN) task across negative, positive and neutral target stimuli blocks. We employed hierarchical Bayesian signal detection theory (SDT) to model psychometric performance across three equal groups of those with melancholic depression, those with a non-melancholic depression and healthy controls. This approach estimated likely response profiles (bias) and perceptual sensitivity (discriminability). Differences in the means of these measures speak to differences in the emotional signal detection between individuals across the groups, while differences in the variance reflect the heterogeneity of the groups themselves. Melancholic participants showed significantly decreased sensitivity to positive emotional stimuli compared to those in the non-melancholic group, and also had a significantly lower discriminability than healthy controls during the detection of neutral signals. The melancholic group also showed significantly higher variability in bias to both positive and negative emotionally salient material. Disturbances of emotional signal detection in melancholic depression appear dependent on emotional context, being biased during the detection of positive stimuli, consistent with a noisier representation of neutral stimuli. The greater heterogeneity of the bias across the melancholic group is consistent with a more labile disorder (i.e. variable across the day). Future work will aim to understand how these findings reflect specific individual differences (e.g. prior cognitive biases) and clarify whether such biases change dynamically during cognitive tasks as internal models of the sensorium are refined and updated in response to experience.

A flexible, interpretable framework for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding.

PubMed

Dorie, Vincent; Harada, Masataka; Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Hill, Jennifer

2016-09-10

When estimating causal effects, unmeasured confounding and model misspecification are both potential sources of bias. We propose a method to simultaneously address both issues in the form of a semi-parametric sensitivity analysis. In particular, our approach incorporates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees into a two-parameter sensitivity analysis strategy that assesses sensitivity of posterior distributions of treatment effects to choices of sensitivity parameters. This results in an easily interpretable framework for testing for the impact of an unmeasured confounder that also limits the number of modeling assumptions. We evaluate our approach in a large-scale simulation setting and with high blood pressure data taken from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The model is implemented as open-source software, integrated into the treatSens package for the R statistical programming language. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) impacts on WRF performance in simulating inversion layer structure and distributions of CMAQ-simulated winter ozone concentrations in Uintah Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Trang; Tran, Huy; Mansfield, Marc; Lyman, Seth; Crosman, Erik

2018-03-01

Four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) was applied in WRF-CMAQ model sensitivity tests to study the impact of observational and analysis nudging on model performance in simulating inversion layers and O3 concentration distributions within the Uintah Basin, Utah, U.S.A. in winter 2013. Observational nudging substantially improved WRF model performance in simulating surface wind fields, correcting a 10 °C warm surface temperature bias, correcting overestimation of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and correcting underestimation of inversion strengths produced by regular WRF model physics without nudging. However, the combined effects of poor performance of WRF meteorological model physical parameterization schemes in simulating low clouds, and warm and moist biases in the temperature and moisture initialization and subsequent simulation fields, likely amplified the overestimation of warm clouds during inversion days when observational nudging was applied, impacting the resulting O3 photochemical formation in the chemistry model. To reduce the impact of a moist bias in the simulations on warm cloud formation, nudging with the analysis water mixing ratio above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was applied. However, due to poor analysis vertical temperature profiles, applying analysis nudging also increased the errors in the modeled inversion layer vertical structure compared to observational nudging. Combining both observational and analysis nudging methods resulted in unrealistically extreme stratified stability that trapped pollutants at the lowest elevations at the center of the Uintah Basin and yielded the worst WRF performance in simulating inversion layer structure among the four sensitivity tests. The results of this study illustrate the importance of carefully considering the representativeness and quality of the observational and model analysis data sets when applying nudging techniques within stable PBLs, and the need to evaluate model results on a basin-wide scale.

Potential diagnostic value of serum p53 antibody for detecting colorectal cancer: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meng, Rongqin; Wang, Yang; He, Liang; He, Yuanqing; Du, Zedong

2018-04-01

Numerous studies have assessed the diagnostic value of serum p53 (s-p53) antibody in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC); however, results remain controversial. The present study aimed to comprehensively and quantitatively summarize the potential diagnostic value of s-p53 antibody in CRC. The present study utilized databases, including PubMed and EmBase, systematically regarding s-p53 antibody diagnosis in CRC, accessed on and prior to 31 July 2016. The quality of all the included studies was assessed using quality assessment of studies of diagnostic accuracy (QUADAS). The result of pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) were analyzed and compared with overall accuracy measures using diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Publication bias and heterogeneity were also assessed. A total of 11 trials that enrolled a combined 3,392 participants were included in the meta-analysis. Approximately 72.73% (8/11) of the included studies were of high quality (QUADAS score >7), and all were retrospective case-control studies. The pooled sensitivity was 0.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.18-0.21] and pooled specificity was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94). Results also demonstrated a PLR of 4.56 (95% CI, 3.27-6.34), NLR of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.71-0.85) and DOR of 6.70 (95% CI, 4.59-9.76). The symmetrical summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.73. Furthermore, no evidence of publication bias or heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis data indicated that s-p53 antibody possesses potential diagnostic value for CRC. However, discrimination power was somewhat limited due to the low sensitivity.

Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Imaging for the Differentiation of Benign and Malignant Lymph Nodes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Peige; Zhang, Li; Zheng, Shaoping; Yu, Cheng; Xie, Mingxing; Lv, Qing

2016-01-01

To evaluate the overall performance of acoustic radiation force impulse imaging (ARFI) in differentiating between benign and malignant lymph nodes (LNs) by conducting a meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure were comprehensively searched for potential studies through August 13th, 2016. Studies that investigated the diagnostic power of ARFI for the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant LNs by using virtual touch tissue quantification (VTQ) or virtual touch tissue imaging quantification (VTIQ) were collected. The included articles were published in English or Chinese. Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) was used to evaluate the methodological quality. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) were calculated by means of a bivariate mixed-effects regression model. Meta-regression analysis was performed to identify the potential sources of between study heterogeneity. Fagan plot analysis was used to explore the clinical utilities. Publication bias was assessed using Deek's funnel plot. Nine studies involving 1084 LNs from 929 patients were identified to analyze in the meta-analysis. The summary sensitivity and specificity of ARFI in detecting malignant LNs were 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-0.91) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.92), respectively. The AUC was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95). The pooled DOR was 49.59 (95% CI, 26.11-94.15). Deek's funnel plot revealed no significant publication bias. ARFI is a promising tool for the differentiation of benign and malignant LNs with high sensitivity and specificity.

Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Imaging for the Differentiation of Benign and Malignant Lymph Nodes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Yu, Cheng; Xie, Mingxing; Lv, Qing

2016-01-01

Objective To evaluate the overall performance of acoustic radiation force impulse imaging (ARFI) in differentiating between benign and malignant lymph nodes (LNs) by conducting a meta-analysis. Methods PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure were comprehensively searched for potential studies through August 13th, 2016. Studies that investigated the diagnostic power of ARFI for the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant LNs by using virtual touch tissue quantification (VTQ) or virtual touch tissue imaging quantification (VTIQ) were collected. The included articles were published in English or Chinese. Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) was used to evaluate the methodological quality. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) were calculated by means of a bivariate mixed-effects regression model. Meta-regression analysis was performed to identify the potential sources of between study heterogeneity. Fagan plot analysis was used to explore the clinical utilities. Publication bias was assessed using Deek’s funnel plot. Results Nine studies involving 1084 LNs from 929 patients were identified to analyze in the meta-analysis. The summary sensitivity and specificity of ARFI in detecting malignant LNs were 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83–0.91) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82–0.92), respectively. The AUC was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90–0.95). The pooled DOR was 49.59 (95% CI, 26.11–94.15). Deek’s funnel plot revealed no significant publication bias. Conclusion ARFI is a promising tool for the differentiation of benign and malignant LNs with high sensitivity and specificity. PMID:27855188

The diagnostic performance of perfusion MRI for differentiating glioma recurrence from pseudoprogression: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wan, Bing; Wang, Siqi; Tu, Mengqi; Wu, Bo; Han, Ping; Xu, Haibo

2017-03-01

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a method for differentiating glioma recurrence from pseudoprogression. The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Chinese Biomedical databases were searched comprehensively for relevant studies up to August 3, 2016 according to specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. The quality of the included studies was assessed according to the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS-2). After performing heterogeneity and threshold effect tests, pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated. Publication bias was evaluated visually by a funnel plot and quantitatively using Deek funnel plot asymmetry test. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated to demonstrate the diagnostic performance of perfusion MRI. Eleven studies covering 416 patients and 418 lesions were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio were 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.92), 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.84), 3.93 (95% CI 2.83-5.46), 0.16 (95% CI 0.11-0.22), and 27.17 (95% CI 14.96-49.35), respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8899. There was no notable publication bias. Sensitivity analysis showed that the meta-analysis results were stable and credible. While perfusion MRI is not the ideal diagnostic method for differentiating glioma recurrence from pseudoprogression, it could improve diagnostic accuracy. Therefore, further research on combining perfusion MRI with other imaging modalities is warranted.

GC-Content Normalization for RNA-Seq Data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq) has become the assay of choice for high-throughput studies of gene expression. However, as is the case with microarrays, major technology-related artifacts and biases affect the resulting expression measures. Normalization is therefore essential to ensure accurate inference of expression levels and subsequent analyses thereof. Results We focus on biases related to GC-content and demonstrate the existence of strong sample-specific GC-content effects on RNA-Seq read counts, which can substantially bias differential expression analysis. We propose three simple within-lane gene-level GC-content normalization approaches and assess their performance on two different RNA-Seq datasets, involving different species and experimental designs. Our methods are compared to state-of-the-art normalization procedures in terms of bias and mean squared error for expression fold-change estimation and in terms of Type I error and p-value distributions for tests of differential expression. The exploratory data analysis and normalization methods proposed in this article are implemented in the open-source Bioconductor R package EDASeq. Conclusions Our within-lane normalization procedures, followed by between-lane normalization, reduce GC-content bias and lead to more accurate estimates of expression fold-changes and tests of differential expression. Such results are crucial for the biological interpretation of RNA-Seq experiments, where downstream analyses can be sensitive to the supplied lists of genes. PMID:22177264

Improving emissions inventories in Mexico through systematic analysis of model performance along C-130 and DC-8 flight tracks during MILAGRO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mena-Carrasco, M.; Carmichael, G. R.; Campbell, J. E.; Tang, Y.; Chai, T.

2007-05-01

During the MILAGRO campaign in March 2006 the University of Iowa provided regional air quality forecasting for scientific flight planning for the C-130 and DC-8. Model performance showed positive bias of ozone prediction (~15ppbv), associated to overpredictions in precursor concentrations (~2.15 ppbv NOy and ~1ppmv ARO1). Model bias showed a distinct geographical pattern in which the higher values were in and near Mexico City. Newer runs in which NOx and VOC emissions were decreased improved ozone prediction, decreasing bias and increasing model correlation, at the same time reducing regional bias over Mexico. This work will evaluate model performance using the newly published Mexico National Emissions Inventory, and the introduction of data assimilation to recover emissions scaling factors to optimize model performance. Finally the results of sensitivity runs showing the regional impact of Mexico City emissions on ozone concentrations will be shown, along with the influence of Mexico City aerosol concentrations on regional photochemistry.

Effects of the shape anisotropy and biasing field on the magnetization reversal process of the diamond-shaped NiFe nano films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Sichen; Yin, Jianfeng; Tang, Rujun; Zhang, Wenxu; Peng, Bin; Zhang, Wanli

2017-11-01

The effects of the planar shape anisotropy and biasing field on the magnetization reversal process (MRP) of the diamond-shaped NiFe nano films have been investigated by micromagnetic simulations. Results show that when the length to width ratio (LWR) of the diamond-shaped film is small, the MRP of the diamond-shaped films are sensitive to LWR. But when LWR is larger than 2, a stable domain switching mode is observed which nucleates from the center of the diamond and then expands to the edges. At a fixed LWR, the magnitude of the switching fields decrease with the increase of the biasing field, but the domain switching mode is not affected by the biasing field. Further analysis shows that demagnetization energy dominates over the MRP of the diamond-shaped films. The above LWR dependence of MRP can be well explained by a variation of the shape anisotropic factor with LWR.

Clinical utility of the mBIAS and NSI validity-10 to detect symptom over-reporting following mild TBI: A multicenter investigation with military service members.

PubMed

Armistead-Jehle, Patrick; Cooper, Douglas B; Grills, Chad E; Cole, Wesley R; Lippa, Sara M; Stegman, Robert L; Lange, Rael T

2018-04-01

Self-report measures are commonly relied upon in military healthcare environments to assess service members following a mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). However, such instruments are susceptible to over-reporting and rarely include validity scales. This study evaluated the utility of the mild Brain Injury Atypical Symptoms scale (mBIAS) and the Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory Validity-10 scale to detect symptom over-reporting. A total of 359 service members with a reported history of mTBI were separated into two symptom reporting groups based on MMPI-2-RF validity scales (i.e., non-over-reporting versus symptom over-reporting). The clinical utility of the mBIAS and Validity-10 as diagnostic indicators and screens of symptom over-reporting were evaluated by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive test rate, positive predictive power (PPP), and negative predictive power (NPP) values. An mBIAS cut score of ≥10 was optimal as a diagnostic indicator, which resulted in high specificity and PPP; however, sensitivity was low. The utility of the mBIAS as a screening instrument was limited. A Validity-10 cut score of ≥33 was optimal as a diagnostic indicator. This resulted in very high specificity and PPP, but low sensitivity. A Validity-10 cut score of ≥7 was considered optimal as a screener, which resulted in moderate sensitivity, specificity, NPP, but relatively low PPP. Owing to low sensitivity, the current data suggests that both the mBIAS and Validity-10 are insufficient as stand-alone measures of symptom over-reporting. However, Validity-10 scores above the identified cut-off of ≥7should be taken as an indication that further evaluation to rule out symptom over-reporting is necessary.

The role of metformin on vitamin B12 deficiency: a meta-analysis review.

PubMed

Niafar, Mitra; Hai, Faizi; Porhomayon, Jahan; Nader, Nader Djalal

2015-02-01

Metformin is the only biguanide oral hypoglycemic drug, that is used to treat patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus. There are some reports of metformin being associated with decreased serum levels of vitamin B12 (VB12). The objective of this study is to systematically analyze the impact of metformin on the frequency of VB12 deficiency and serum levels of VB12. A search of various databases provided 18 retrospective cohort studies and 11 randomized controlled trials. Pooled estimates of odds ratio with 95% confidence interval using random effect model were conducted. Studies were examined for heterogeneity, publication bias and sensitivity analysis. Separate analysis of randomized control trials (RCTs) including both low-risk and high-risk bias was also conducted. 29 studies were selected with a total of 8,089 patients. 19 studies were rated intermediate or high quality. Primary outcome suggested increased incidence of VB12 deficiency in metformin group (OR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.74-3.44, P < 0.0001.) Heterogeneity was relatively high (I(2) = 53%), with minor publication bias. Secondary outcome suggested lower serum VB12 concentrations in metformin group (Mean difference = -65.8, 95% CI -78.1 to -53.6 pmol/L, P < 0.00001) with high heterogeneity (I(2) = 98%,) and low publication bias. RCTs analysis of low-and high-risk group revealed similar trends. We conclude that metformin treatment is significantly associated with an increase in incidence of VB12 deficiency and reduced serum VB12 levels.

Development of Heuristic Bias Detection in Elementary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Neys, Wim; Feremans, Vicky

2013-01-01

Although human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics, recent studies have shown that adults and adolescents detect the biased nature of their judgments. The present study focused on the development of this critical bias sensitivity by examining the detection skills of young children in elementary school. Third and 6th graders were…

Does the Superior Colliculus Control Perceptual Sensitivity or Choice Bias during Attention? Evidence from a Multialternative Decision Framework

PubMed Central

Steinmetz, Nicholas A.; Moore, Tirin; Knudsen, Eric I.

2017-01-01

Distinct networks in the forebrain and the midbrain coordinate to control spatial attention. The critical involvement of the superior colliculus (SC)—the central structure in the midbrain network—in visuospatial attention has been shown by four seminal, published studies in monkeys (Macaca mulatta) performing multialternative tasks. However, due to the lack of a mechanistic framework for interpreting behavioral data in such tasks, the nature of the SC's contribution to attention remains unclear. Here we present and validate a novel decision framework for analyzing behavioral data in multialternative attention tasks. We apply this framework to re-examine the behavioral evidence from these published studies. Our model is a multidimensional extension to signal detection theory that distinguishes between two major classes of attentional mechanisms: those that alter the quality of sensory information or “sensitivity,” and those that alter the selective gating of sensory information or “choice bias.” Model-based simulations and model-based analyses of data from these published studies revealed a converging pattern of results that indicated that choice-bias changes, rather than sensitivity changes, were the primary outcome of SC manipulation. Our results suggest that the SC contributes to attentional performance predominantly by generating a spatial choice bias for stimuli at a selected location, and that this bias operates downstream of forebrain mechanisms that enhance sensitivity. The findings lead to a testable mechanistic framework of how the midbrain and forebrain networks interact to control spatial attention. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Attention involves the selection of the most relevant information for differential sensory processing and decision making. While the mechanisms by which attention alters sensory encoding (sensitivity control) are well studied, the mechanisms by which attention alters decisional weighting of sensory evidence (choice-bias control) are poorly understood. Here, we introduce a model of multialternative decision making that distinguishes bias from sensitivity effects in attention tasks. With our model, we simulate experimental data from four seminal studies that microstimulated or inactivated a key attention-related midbrain structure, the superior colliculus (SC). We demonstrate that the experimental effects of SC manipulation are entirely consistent with the SC controlling attention by changing choice bias, thereby shedding new light on how the brain mediates attention. PMID:28100734

Does the Superior Colliculus Control Perceptual Sensitivity or Choice Bias during Attention? Evidence from a Multialternative Decision Framework.

PubMed

Sridharan, Devarajan; Steinmetz, Nicholas A; Moore, Tirin; Knudsen, Eric I

2017-01-18

Distinct networks in the forebrain and the midbrain coordinate to control spatial attention. The critical involvement of the superior colliculus (SC)-the central structure in the midbrain network-in visuospatial attention has been shown by four seminal, published studies in monkeys (Macaca mulatta) performing multialternative tasks. However, due to the lack of a mechanistic framework for interpreting behavioral data in such tasks, the nature of the SC's contribution to attention remains unclear. Here we present and validate a novel decision framework for analyzing behavioral data in multialternative attention tasks. We apply this framework to re-examine the behavioral evidence from these published studies. Our model is a multidimensional extension to signal detection theory that distinguishes between two major classes of attentional mechanisms: those that alter the quality of sensory information or "sensitivity," and those that alter the selective gating of sensory information or "choice bias." Model-based simulations and model-based analyses of data from these published studies revealed a converging pattern of results that indicated that choice-bias changes, rather than sensitivity changes, were the primary outcome of SC manipulation. Our results suggest that the SC contributes to attentional performance predominantly by generating a spatial choice bias for stimuli at a selected location, and that this bias operates downstream of forebrain mechanisms that enhance sensitivity. The findings lead to a testable mechanistic framework of how the midbrain and forebrain networks interact to control spatial attention. Attention involves the selection of the most relevant information for differential sensory processing and decision making. While the mechanisms by which attention alters sensory encoding (sensitivity control) are well studied, the mechanisms by which attention alters decisional weighting of sensory evidence (choice-bias control) are poorly understood. Here, we introduce a model of multialternative decision making that distinguishes bias from sensitivity effects in attention tasks. With our model, we simulate experimental data from four seminal studies that microstimulated or inactivated a key attention-related midbrain structure, the superior colliculus (SC). We demonstrate that the experimental effects of SC manipulation are entirely consistent with the SC controlling attention by changing choice bias, thereby shedding new light on how the brain mediates attention. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/370480-32$15.00/0.

Tumor necrosis factor α level in cerebrospinal fluid for bacterial and aseptic meningitis: a diagnostic meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lv, S; Zhao, J; Zhang, J; Kwon, S; Han, M; Bian, R; Fu, H; Zhang, Y; Pan, H

2014-08-01

In our previous study, tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) was identified as an effective target for sepsis patients (Int J Clin Pract, 68, 2014, 520). TNF-α in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was also investigated for its utility in the differential diagnosis of bacterial and aseptic meningitis. However, there has been neither definite nor convincing evidence so far. Here the overall diagnostic accuracy of TNF-α in differentiation between bacterial and aseptic meningitis was evaluated through the meta-analysis of diagnostic tests. The sensitivity, specificity and other measures of accuracy were pooled using random effect models. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess overall test performance. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots, and sensitivity analysis was also introduced. A total of 21 studies involving bacterial meningitis (678) and aseptic meningitis (694) involved a total of 1372 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for the TNF-α test were 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.86, I(2)  = 65.1] and 0.92 (95% CI 0.89-0.94, I(2)  = 61.8), respectively. The positive likelihood ratio was 12.05 (95% CI 7.41-19.60, I(2)  = 36.5), the negative likelihood ratio was 0.17 (95% CI 0.13-0.24, I(2)  = 59.4), and TNF-α was significantly associated with bacterial meningitis, with a diagnostic odds ratio of 49.84 (95% CI 28.53-87.06, I(2)  = 47.9). The overall accuracy of the TNF-α test was very high with the area under the curve 0.9317. Publication bias was absent, and sensitivity analysis suggested that our results were highly stable. Our meta-analysis suggested that TNF-α could be recommended as a useful marker for diagnosis of bacterial meningitis and differential diagnosis between bacterial and aseptic meningitis with high sensitivity and specificity. Thus, hospitals should be encouraged to conduct TNF-α tests in CSF after lumbar puncture. © 2014 The Author(s) European Journal of Neurology © 2014 EAN.

Increased incidence of head and neck cancer in liver transplant recipients: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Qian; Yan, Lifeng; Xu, Cheng; Gu, Aihua; Zhao, Peng; Jiang, Zhao-Yan

2014-10-22

It is unclear whether liver transplantation is associated with an increased incidence of post-transplant head and neck cancer. This comprehensive meta-analysis evaluated the association between liver transplantation and the risk of head and neck cancer using data from all available studies. PubMed and Web of Science were systematically searched to identify all relevant publications up to March 2014. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of head and neck cancer in liver transplant recipients were calculated. Tests for heterogeneity, sensitivity, and publishing bias were also performed. Of the 964 identified articles, 10 were deemed eligible. These studies included data on 56,507 patients with a total follow-up of 129,448.9 patient-years. SIR for head and neck cancer was 3.836-fold higher (95% CI 2.754-4.918, P = 0.000) in liver transplant recipients than in the general population. No heterogeneity or publication bias was observed. Sensitivity analysis indicated that omission of any of the studies resulted in an SIR for head and neck cancer between 3.488 (95% CI: 2.379-4.598) and 4.306 (95% CI: 3.020-5.592). Liver transplant recipients are at higher risk of developing head and neck cancer than the general population.

Breast Lesions: Diagnosis Using Diffusion Weighted Imaging at 1.5T and 3.0T-Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Ruo-Yang; Yao, Qiu-Ying; Wu, Lian-Ming; Xu, Jian-Rong

2018-06-01

We compared the diagnostic performance of diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) acquired with 1.5T and 3.0T magnetic resonance (MR) units in differentiating malignant breast lesions from benign ones. A comprehensive search of the PubMed and Embase databases was performed for studies reported from January 1, 2000 to February 19, 2016. The quality of the included studies was assessed. Statistical analysis included pooling of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity and assessing data inhomogeneity and publication bias. A total of 61 studies were included after a full-text review. These included 4778 patients and 5205 breast lesions. The overall sensitivity and specificity were 90% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88%-92%) and 86% (95% CI, 82%-89%), respectively. The pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 53 (95% CI, 37-74). For breast cancer versus benign lesions, the area under the curve was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.92-0.96). For the 44 studies that used a 1.5T MR unit, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 91% (95% CI, 89%-92%) and 86% (95% CI, 81%-90%), respectively. For the 17 studies that used a 3.0T MR unit, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 88% (95% CI, 83%-91%) and 84% (95% CI, 0.78-0.89), respectively. Publication bias and significant heterogeneity were observed; however, no threshold was found among the 61 studies. No significant difference was found in the sensitivity or specificity between the subgroups. The results of the comparison between the subgroups that had used either a 1.5T or 3.0T MR unit suggest that the diagnostic accuracy for breast cancer compared with benign lesions is not significantly different. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Referential delusions of communication and reality discrimination deficits in psychosis.

PubMed

Bucci, Sandra; Startup, Mike; Wynn, Paula; Heathcote, Andrew; Baker, Amanda; Lewin, Terry J

2008-09-01

There appear to be two kinds of delusion of reference, which vary independently: delusions of observation and delusions of communication. It has been suggested that delusions of communication might derive from an impairment in reality discrimination, though the impairment would be centred on non-verbal channels in delusions of communication as opposed to verbal channels in auditory hallucinations. Patients (N=64) with acute psychotic symptoms were recruited according to a 2 x 2 design: presence versus absence of delusions of communication crossed with presence versus absence of auditory hallucinations. They were presented with 100 brief video clips in which an actor either made a well-known gesture or an incidental movement, with the clips being obscured by visual noise. For each clip, the patients indicated how confident they were that a gesture was portrayed. According to a signal detection analysis, all groups showed adequate sensitivity and the groups did not differ in sensitivity, but patients with delusions of communication showed a bias to report gestures which was not shown by patients with hallucinations. A control group of healthy volunteers (N=57) showed significantly greater sensitivity than the patients and a more conservative bias than patients with delusions of communication. A bias to report gestures is not part of a general tendency to externalize one's own thoughts but may be the result of a reality discrimination deficit that is specific to delusions of communication. A possible theoretical explanation for such a deficit is discussed.

Distinguishing between learning and motivation in behavioral tests of the reinforcement sensitivity theory of personality.

PubMed

Smillie, Luke D; Dalgleish, Len I; Jackson, Chris J

2007-04-01

According to Gray's (1973) Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory (RST), a Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) and a Behavioral Activation System (BAS) mediate effects of goal conflict and reward on behavior. BIS functioning has been linked with individual differences in trait anxiety and BAS functioning with individual differences in trait impulsivity. In this article, it is argued that behavioral outputs of the BIS and BAS can be distinguished in terms of learning and motivation processes and that these can be operationalized using the Signal Detection Theory measures of response-sensitivity and response-bias. In Experiment 1, two measures of BIS-reactivity predicted increased response-sensitivity under goal conflict, whereas one measure of BAS-reactivity predicted increased response-sensitivity under reward. In Experiment 2, two measures of BIS-reactivity predicted response-bias under goal conflict, whereas a measure of BAS-reactivity predicted motivation response-bias under reward. In both experiments, impulsivity measures did not predict criteria for BAS-reactivity as traditionally predicted by RST.

Violent video game effects remain a societal concern: Reply to Hilgard, Engelhardt, and Rouder (2017).

PubMed

Kepes, Sven; Bushman, Brad J; Anderson, Craig A

2017-07-01

A large meta-analysis by Anderson et al. (2010) found that violent video games increased aggressive thoughts, angry feelings, physiological arousal, and aggressive behavior and decreased empathic feelings and helping behavior. Hilgard, Engelhardt, and Rouder (2017) reanalyzed the data of Anderson et al. (2010) using newer publication bias methods (i.e., precision-effect test, precision-effect estimate with standard error, p-uniform, p-curve). Based on their reanalysis, Hilgard, Engelhardt, and Rouder concluded that experimental studies examining the effect of violent video games on aggressive affect and aggressive behavior may be contaminated by publication bias, and these effects are very small when corrected for publication bias. However, the newer methods Hilgard, Engelhardt, and Rouder used may not be the most appropriate. Because publication bias is a potential a problem in any scientific domain, we used a comprehensive sensitivity analysis battery to examine the influence of publication bias and outliers on the experimental effects reported by Anderson et al. We used best meta-analytic practices and the triangulation approach to locate the likely position of the true mean effect size estimates. Using this methodological approach, we found that the combined adverse effects of outliers and publication bias was less severe than what Hilgard, Engelhardt, and Rouder found for publication bias alone. Moreover, the obtained mean effects using recommended methods and practices were not very small in size. The results of the methods used by Hilgard, Engelhardt, and Rouder tended to not converge well with the results of the methods we used, indicating potentially poor performance. We therefore conclude that violent video game effects should remain a societal concern. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Where in the Oregon Trail Is Carmen Sandiego? A Commentary on Software and Its Sensitivity to Diversity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guzman, Delrita Cruz

2002-01-01

Addresses cultural biases, language biases, cultural sensitivity, and the authenticity of educational software for children, critiquing several popular educational programs and revealing the pitfalls of software design and the problem among software engineers (lack of training and lack of cultural knowledge). Proposes tips to help parents and…

Total dose bias dependency and ELDRS effects in bipolar linear devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yui, C. C.; McClure, S. S.; Rex, B. G.; Lehman, J. M.; Minto, T. D.; Wiedeman, M.

2002-01-01

Total dose tests of several bipolar linear devices show sensitivity to both dose rate and bias during exposure. All devices exhibited Enhanced Low Dose Rate Sensitivity (ELDRS). An accelerated ELDRS test method for three different devices demonstrate results similar to tests at low dose rate. Behavior and critical parameters from these tests are compared and discussed.

Relative Accuracy of Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests and Culture in Detecting Chlamydia in Asymptomatic Men

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hong; Macaluso, Maurizio; Vermund, Sten H.; Hook, Edward W.

2001-01-01

Published estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of PCR and ligase chain reaction (LCR) for detecting Chlamydia trachomatis are potentially biased because of study design limitations (confirmation of test results was limited to subjects who were PCR or LCR positive but culture negative). Relative measures of test accuracy are less prone to bias in incomplete study designs. We estimated the relative sensitivity (RSN) and relative false-positive rate (RFP) for PCR and LCR versus cell culture among 1,138 asymptomatic men and evaluated the potential bias of RSN and RFP estimates. PCR and LCR testing in urine were compared to culture of urethral specimens. Discordant results (PCR or LCR positive, but culture negative) were confirmed by using a sequence including the other DNA amplification test, direct fluorescent antibody testing, and a DNA amplification test to detect chlamydial major outer membrane protein. The RSN estimates for PCR and LCR were 1.45 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3 to 1.7) and 1.49 (95% CI = 1.3 to 1.7), respectively, indicating that both methods are more sensitive than culture. Very few false-positive results were found, indicating that the specificity levels of PCR, LCR, and culture are high. The potential bias in RSN and RFP estimates were <5 and <20%, respectively. The estimation of bias is based on the most likely and probably conservative parameter settings. If the sensitivity of culture is between 60 and 65%, then the true sensitivity of PCR and LCR is between 90 and 97%. Our findings indicate that PCR and LCR are significantly more sensitive than culture, while the three tests have similar specificities. PMID:11682509

Intertrial-interval effects on sensitivity (A') and response bias (B") in a temporal discrimination by rats.

PubMed Central

Raslear, T G; Shurtleff, D; Simmons, L

1992-01-01

Killeen and Fetterman's (1988) behavioral theory of animal timing predicts that decreases in the rate of reinforcement should produce decreases in the sensitivity (A') of temporal discriminations and a decrease in miss and correct rejection rates (decrease in bias toward "long" responses). Eight rats were trained on a 10- versus 0.1-s temporal discrimination with an intertrial interval of 5 s and were subsequently tested on probe days on the same discrimination with intertrial intervals of 1, 2.5, 5, 10, or 20 s. The rate of reinforcement declined for all animals as intertrial interval increased. Although sensitivity (A') decreased with increasing intertrial interval, all rats showed an increase in bias to make long responses. PMID:1447544

The correlation of the depth of anesthesia and postoperative cognitive impairment: A meta-analysis based on randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Lu, Xing; Jin, Xin; Yang, Suwei; Xia, Yanfei

2018-03-01

To comprehensively evaluate the associations between the depth of anesthesia and postoperative delirium (POD) or postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). Using the Cochrane evaluation system, the included studies were conducted with quality assessment. We searched Cochrane library, Embase and PubMed databases without language restriction. The retrieval time is up to August 2017. According to the PRISMA guideline, the results associated with POCD and POD separately were compared between low and high bispectral index (BIS) groups under fixed effects model or random effects model. Besides, the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were utilized as the effect sizes for merging the results. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. Using Egger's test, publication bias was assessed for the included studies. Totally, 4 studies with high qualities were selected for this meta-analysis. The merged results of POCD showed no significant difference between low and high BIS groups (RR (95% CI)=0.84 (0.21, 3.45), P>0.05). Sensitivity analysis showed that the merged results of POCD were not stable (RR (95%CI)=0.41 (0.17, 0.99)-1.88 (1.09, 3.22), P=0.046). Additionally, no significant publication bias for POCD was found (P=0.385). There was no significant correlation between the depth of anesthesia and POCD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of provocative tests of the neck for diagnosing cervical radiculopathy

PubMed Central

Pool, Jan J. M.; van Tulder, Maurits W.; Riphagen, Ingrid I.; de Vet, Henrica C. W.

2006-01-01

Clinical provocative tests of the neck, which position the neck and arm inorder to aggravate or relieve arm symptoms, are commonly used in clinical practice in patients with a suspected cervical radiculopathy. Their diagnostic accuracy, however, has never been examined in a systematic review. A comprehensive search was conducted in order to identify all possible studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria. A study was included if: (1) any provocative test of the neck for diagnosing cervical radiculopathy was identified; (2) any reference standard was used; (3) sensitivity and specificity were reported or could be (re-)calculated; and, (4) the publication was a full report. Two reviewers independently selected studies, and assessed methodological quality. Only six studies met the inclusion criteria, which evaluated five provocative tests. In general, Spurling’s test demonstrated low to moderate sensitivity and high specificity, as did traction/neck distraction, and Valsalva’s maneuver. The upper limb tension test (ULTT) demonstrated high sensitivity and low specificity, while the shoulder abduction test demonstrated low to moderate sensitivity and moderate to high specificity. Common methodological flaws included lack of an optimal reference standard, disease progression bias, spectrum bias, and review bias. Limitations include few primary studies, substantial heterogeneity, and numerous methodological flaws among the studies; therefore, a meta-analysis was not conducted. This review suggests that, when consistent with the history and other physical findings, a positive Spurling’s, traction/neck distraction, and Valsalva’s might be indicative of a cervical radiculopathy, while a negative ULTT might be used to rule it out. However, the lack of evidence precludes any firm conclusions regarding their diagnostic value, especially when used in primary care. More high quality studies are necessary in order to resolve this issue. PMID:17013656

Herpesviruses in etiopathogenesis of aggressive periodontitis: A meta-analysis based on case-control studies.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Zhu, Ce; Deng, Feng-Ying; Wong, May Chun Mei; Lu, Hai-Xia; Feng, Xi-Ping

2017-01-01

Previous studies have found that herpesviruses are associated with aggressive periodontitis (AgP). However, these findings are controversial. This meta-analysis was aimed at clarifying the association between herpesviruses and AgP. We identified eligible case-control studies evaluating the association between herpesviruses and AgP from PubMed and Embase databases in October 2015. Original data were extracted and quality assessment was done. Overall odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. Random-effects model was determined. The stability was evaluated by sensitivity analysis. Finally, Egger's funnel plot was used to investigate the publication bias. Twelve case-control studies involving 322 patients and 342 controls were included in the present meta-analysis. The included case-control studies were assessed as high quality. The quantitative synthesis results for Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) showed significance (10 studies: p = 0.0008, OR = 6.11, 95% CI = 2.13-17.51); nevertheless, evidence of publication bias for EBV was considerable (EBV: Egger's test, p<0.001). Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) had significant association with AgP (12 studies for HCMV: p = 0.009, OR = 3.63, 95% CI = 2.15-6.13; 4 studies for HSV-1: p<0.001, OR = 19.19, 95% CI = 4.16-79.06). Sensitivity analyses showed the results yielded consistency, and no significant publication bias was observed for HCMV. The association between Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and AgP was inconclusive (2 studies: p = 0.20, OR = 3.46, 95% CI = 0.51-23.51). This meta-analysis suggests that HCMV and HSV-1 are significantly associated with AgP. However, due to the heterogeneity among studies these conclusions should be cautiously interpreted. There is insufficient evidence to draw any conclusion between EBV, HSV-2 and AgP based on the currently limited data.

The Impact of Assimilation of GPM Clear Sky Radiance on HWRF Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, C. L.; Pu, Z.

2016-12-01

The impact of GPM microwave imager (GMI) clear sky radiances on hurricane forecasting is examined by ingesting GMI level 1C recalibrated brightness temperature into the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)- based ensemble-variational hybrid data assimilation system for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system. The GMI clear sky radiances are compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) simulated radiances to closely study the quality of the radiance observations. The quality check result indicates the presence of bias in various channels. A static bias correction scheme, in which the appropriate bias correction coefficients for GMI data is evaluated by applying regression method on a sufficiently large sample of data representative to the observational bias in the regions of concern, is used to correct the observational bias in GMI clear sky radiances. Forecast results with and without assimilation of GMI radiance are compared using hurricane cases from recent hurricane seasons (e.g., Hurricane Joaquin in 2015). Diagnoses of data assimilation results show that the bias correction coefficients obtained from the regression method can correct the inherent biases in GMI radiance data, significantly reducing observational residuals. The removal of biases also allows more data to pass GSI quality control and hence to be assimilated into the model. Forecast results for hurricane Joaquin demonstrates that the quality of analysis from the data assimilation is sensitive to the bias correction, with positive impacts on the hurricane track forecast when systematic biases are removed from the radiance data. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Effect of a single session of muscle-biased therapy on pain sensitivity: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Gay, Charles W; Alappattu, Meryl J; Coronado, Rogelio A; Horn, Maggie E; Bishop, Mark D

2013-01-01

Background Muscle-biased therapies (MBT) are commonly used to treat pain, yet several reviews suggest evidence for the clinical effectiveness of these therapies is lacking. Inadequate treatment parameters have been suggested to account for inconsistent effects across studies. Pain sensitivity may serve as an intermediate physiologic endpoint helping to establish optimal MBT treatment parameters. The purpose of this review was to summarize the current literature investigating the short-term effect of a single dose of MBT on pain sensitivity in both healthy and clinical populations, with particular attention to specific MBT parameters of intensity and duration. Methods A systematic search for articles meeting our prespecified criteria was conducted using Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and MEDLINE from the inception of each database until July 2012, in accordance with guidelines from the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis. Relevant characteristics from studies included type, intensity, and duration of MBT and whether short-term changes in pain sensitivity and clinical pain were noted with MBT application. Study results were pooled using a random-effects model to estimate the overall effect size of a single dose of MBT on pain sensitivity as well as the effect of MBT, dependent on comparison group and population type. Results Reports from 24 randomized controlled trials (23 articles) were included, representing 36 MBT treatment arms and 29 comparative groups, where 10 groups received active agents, 11 received sham/inert treatments, and eight received no treatment. MBT demonstrated a favorable and consistent ability to modulate pain sensitivity. Short-term modulation of pain sensitivity was associated with short-term beneficial effects on clinical pain. Intensity of MBT, but not duration, was linked with change in pain sensitivity. A meta-analysis was conducted on 17 studies that assessed the effect of MBT on pressure pain thresholds. The results suggest that MBT had a favorable effect on pressure pain thresholds when compared with no-treatment and sham/inert groups, and effects comparable with those of other active treatments. Conclusion The evidence supports the use of pain sensitivity measures by future research to help elucidate optimal therapeutic parameters for MBT as an intermediate physiologic marker. PMID:23403507

Empirical Benchmarks of Hidden Bias in Educational Research: Implication for Assessing How well Propensity Score Methods Approximate Experiments and Conducting Sensitivity Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dong, Nianbo; Lipsey, Mark

2014-01-01

When randomized control trials (RCT) are not feasible, researchers seek other methods to make causal inference, e.g., propensity score methods. One of the underlined assumptions for the propensity score methods to obtain unbiased treatment effect estimates is the ignorability assumption, that is, conditional on the propensity score, treatment…

The performance of sample selection estimators to control for attrition bias.

PubMed

Grasdal, A

2001-07-01

Sample attrition is a potential source of selection bias in experimental, as well as non-experimental programme evaluation. For labour market outcomes, such as employment status and earnings, missing data problems caused by attrition can be circumvented by the collection of follow-up data from administrative registers. For most non-labour market outcomes, however, investigators must rely on participants' willingness to co-operate in keeping detailed follow-up records and statistical correction procedures to identify and adjust for attrition bias. This paper combines survey and register data from a Norwegian randomized field trial to evaluate the performance of parametric and semi-parametric sample selection estimators commonly used to correct for attrition bias. The considered estimators work well in terms of producing point estimates of treatment effects close to the experimental benchmark estimates. Results are sensitive to exclusion restrictions. The analysis also demonstrates an inherent paradox in the 'common support' approach, which prescribes exclusion from the analysis of observations outside of common support for the selection probability. The more important treatment status is as a determinant of attrition, the larger is the proportion of treated with support for the selection probability outside the range, for which comparison with untreated counterparts is possible. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing Omitted Confounder Bias in Multilevel Mediation Models.

PubMed

Tofighi, Davood; Kelley, Ken

2016-01-01

To draw valid inference about an indirect effect in a mediation model, there must be no omitted confounders. No omitted confounders means that there are no common causes of hypothesized causal relationships. When the no-omitted-confounder assumption is violated, inference about indirect effects can be severely biased and the results potentially misleading. Despite the increasing attention to address confounder bias in single-level mediation, this topic has received little attention in the growing area of multilevel mediation analysis. A formidable challenge is that the no-omitted-confounder assumption is untestable. To address this challenge, we first analytically examined the biasing effects of potential violations of this critical assumption in a two-level mediation model with random intercepts and slopes, in which all the variables are measured at Level 1. Our analytic results show that omitting a Level 1 confounder can yield misleading results about key quantities of interest, such as Level 1 and Level 2 indirect effects. Second, we proposed a sensitivity analysis technique to assess the extent to which potential violation of the no-omitted-confounder assumption might invalidate or alter the conclusions about the indirect effects observed. We illustrated the methods using an empirical study and provided computer code so that researchers can implement the methods discussed.

Particle sensor array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, Martin G. (Inventor); Blaes, Brent R. (Inventor); Lieneweg, Udo (Inventor)

1994-01-01

A particle sensor array which in a preferred embodiment comprises a static random access memory having a plurality of ion-sensitive memory cells, each such cell comprising at least one pull-down field effect transistor having a sensitive drain surface area (such as by bloating) and at least one pull-up field effect transistor having a source connected to an offset voltage. The sensitive drain surface area and the offset voltage are selected for memory cell upset by incident ions such as alpha-particles. The static random access memory of the present invention provides a means for selectively biasing the memory cells into the same state in which each of the sensitive drain surface areas is reverse biased and then selectively reducing the reversed bias on these sensitive drain surface areas for increasing the upset sensitivity of the cells to ions. The resulting selectively sensitive memory cells can be used in a number of applications. By way of example, the present invention can be used for measuring the linear energy transfer of ion particles, as well as a device for assessing the resistance of CMOS latches to Cosmic Ray induced single event upsets. The sensor of the present invention can also be used to determine the uniformity of an ion beam.

Effect of signal intensity and camera quantization on laser speckle contrast analysis

PubMed Central

Song, Lipei; Elson, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

Laser speckle contrast analysis (LASCA) is limited to being a qualitative method for the measurement of blood flow and tissue perfusion as it is sensitive to the measurement configuration. The signal intensity is one of the parameters that can affect the contrast values due to the quantization of the signals by the camera and analog-to-digital converter (ADC). In this paper we deduce the theoretical relationship between signal intensity and contrast values based on the probability density function (PDF) of the speckle pattern and simplify it to a rational function. A simple method to correct this contrast error is suggested. The experimental results demonstrate that this relationship can effectively compensate the bias in contrast values induced by the quantized signal intensity and correct for bias induced by signal intensity variations across the field of view. PMID:23304650

Orbit/attitude estimation with LANDSAT Landmark data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, D. L.; Waligora, S.

1979-01-01

The use of LANDSAT landmark data for orbit/attitude and camera bias estimation was studied. The preliminary results of these investigations are presented. The Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) error analysis capability was used to perform error analysis studies. A number of questions were addressed including parameter observability and sensitivity, effects on the solve-for parameter errors of data span, density, and distribution an a priori covariance weighting. The use of the GTDS differential correction capability with acutal landmark data was examined. The rms line and element observation residuals were studied as a function of the solve-for parameter set, a priori covariance weighting, force model, attitude model and data characteristics. Sample results are presented. Finally, verfication and preliminary system evaluation of the LANDSAT NAVPAK system for sequential (extended Kalman Filter) estimation of orbit, and camera bias parameters is given.

Sensitivity of Coupled Tropical Pacific Model Biases to Convective Parameterization in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woelfle, M. D.; Yu, S.; Bretherton, C. S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2018-01-01

Six month coupled hindcasts show the central equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias development in a GCM to be sensitive to the atmospheric convective parameterization employed. Simulations using the standard configuration of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) develop a cold bias in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the first two months of integration due to anomalous ocean advection driven by overly strong easterly surface wind stress along the equator. Disabling the deep convection parameterization enhances the zonal pressure gradient leading to stronger zonal wind stress and a stronger equatorial SST bias, highlighting the role of pressure gradients in determining the strength of the cold bias. Superparameterized hindcasts show reduced SST bias in the cold tongue region due to a reduction in surface easterlies despite simulating an excessively strong low-level jet at 1-1.5 km elevation. This reflects inadequate vertical mixing of zonal momentum from the absence of convective momentum transport in the superparameterized model. Standard CESM1simulations modified to omit shallow convective momentum transport reproduce the superparameterized low-level wind bias and associated equatorial SST pattern. Further superparameterized simulations using a three-dimensional cloud resolving model capable of producing realistic momentum transport simulate a cold tongue similar to the default CESM1. These findings imply convective momentum fluxes may be an underappreciated mechanism for controlling the strength of the equatorial cold tongue. Despite the sensitivity of equatorial SST to these changes in convective parameterization, the east Pacific double-Intertropical Convergence Zone rainfall bias persists in all simulations presented in this study.

Clustering of temperamental and cognitive risk factors for anxiety in a college sample of late adolescents.

PubMed

Viana, Andres G; Gratz, Kim L; Bierman, Karen L

2013-01-01

Temperamental vulnerabilities (e.g., behavioral inhibition, anxiety sensitivity) and cognitive biases (e.g., interpretive and judgment biases) may exacerbate feelings of stress and anxiety, particularly among late adolescents during the early years of college. The goal of the present study was to apply person-centered analyses to explore possible heterogeneity in the patterns of these four risk factors in late adolescence, and to examine associations with several anxiety outcomes (i.e., worry, anxiety symptoms, and trait anxiety). Cluster analyses in a college sample of 855 late adolescents revealed a Low-Risk group, along with four reliable clusters with distinct profiles of risk factors and anxiety outcomes (Inhibited, Sensitive, Cognitively-Biased, and Multi-Risk). Of the risk profiles, Multi-Risk youth experienced the highest levels of anxiety outcomes, whereas Inhibited youth experienced the lowest levels of anxiety outcomes. Sensitive and Cognitively-Biased youth experienced comparable levels of anxiety-related outcomes, despite different constellations of risk factors. Implications for interventions and future research are discussed.

Sensitivity of the Antarctic surface mass balance to oceanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, C.; Amory, C.; Agosta, C.; Fettweis, X.

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) are suitable numerical tools to study the surface mass balance (SMB) of the wide polar ice sheets due to their high spatial resolution and polar-adapted physics. Nonetheless, RCMs are driven at their boundaries and over the ocean by reanalysis or global climate model (GCM) products and are thus influenced by potential biases in these large-scale fields. These biases can be significant for both the atmosphere and the sea surface conditions (i.e. sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature). With the RCM MAR, a set of sensitivity experiments has been realized to assess the direct response of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet to oceanic perturbations. MAR is forced by ERA-Interim and anomalies based on mean GCM biases are introduced in sea surface conditions. Results show significant increases (decreases) of liquid and solid precipitation due to biases related to warm (cold) oceans. As precipitation is mainly caused by low-pressure systems that intrude into the continent and do not penetrate far inland, coastal areas are more sensitive than inland regions. Furthermore, warm ocean representative biases lead to anomalies as large as anomalies simulated by other RCMs or GCMs for the end of the 21st century.

On the limits of Kagan's impulsive reflective distinction.

PubMed

Jones, B; McIntyre, L

1976-05-01

A logical analysis is made of the Matching Familiar Figures (MFF) Test on the basis of which children have been classified as "impulsive" or "reflective." The reflective strategy is implicitly preferred to the impulsive because the reflective child makes fewer errors though generally taking longer to make his first response. We show that the test allows the choice of a number of "game plans" and speed-accuracy tradeoffs which in practice may not be very different. Error rates may not indicate perceptual sensitivity, in any case, since sensitivity and response factors may be confounded in the error rate. Using a visual running-memory-span task to avoid the inherent difficulties of the MFF test, we found that children previously classified on the basis of that test as impulsive or reflective did not differ in recognition accuracy but did differ in response bias and response latency. Accuracy and bias are estimated by way of Luce's choice theory (Luce, 1963), and the results are discussed in those terms.

Association between alcohol consumption and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a meta-analysis of five observational studies.

PubMed

E, Meng; Yu, Sufang; Dou, Jianrui; Jin, Wu; Cai, Xiang; Mao, Yiyang; Zhu, Daojian; Yang, Rumei

2016-08-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the association between alcohol consumption and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Published literature on the association between alcohol consumption and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis was retrieved from the PubMed and Embase databases. Two authors independently extracted the data. The quality of the identified studies was evaluated according to the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed and publication bias was assessed. Five articles, including one cohort study and seven case-control studies, and a total of 431,943 participants, were identified. The odds ratio for the association between alcohol consumption and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis was 0.57 (95 % confidence interval 0.51-0.64). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses confirmed the result. Evidence for publication bias was detected. Alcohol consumption reduced the risk of developing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis compared with non-drinking. Alcohol, therefore, has a potentially neuroprotective effect on the development of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Gene × environment interaction on intergroup bias: the role of 5-HTTLPR and perceived outgroup threat

PubMed Central

Livingston, Robert W.; Hong, Ying-Yi; Chiao, Joan Y.

2014-01-01

Perceived threat from outgroups is a consistent social-environmental antecedent of intergroup bias (i.e. prejudice, ingroup favoritism). The serotonin transporter gene polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) has been associated with individual variations in sensitivity to context, particularly stressful and threatening situations. Here, we examined how 5-HTTLPR and environmental factors signaling potential outgroup threat dynamically interact to shape intergroup bias. Across two studies, we provide novel evidence for a gene–environment interaction on the acquisition of intergroup bias and prejudice. Greater exposure to signals of outgroup threat, such as negative prior contact with outgroups and perceived danger from the social environment, were more predictive of intergroup bias among participants possessing at least one short allele (vs two long alleles) of 5-HTTLPR. Furthermore, this gene x environment interaction was observed for biases directed at diverse ethnic and arbitrarily-defined outgroups across measures reflecting intergroup biases in evaluation and discriminatory behavior. These findings reveal a candidate genetic mechanism for the acquisition of intergroup bias, and suggest that intergroup bias is dually inherited and transmitted through the interplay of social (i.e. contextual cues of outgroup threat) and biological mechanisms (i.e. genetic sensitivity toward threatening contexts) that regulate perceived intergroup threats. PMID:23887814

Testing the robustness of the diagnostic overshadowing bias.

PubMed

Spengler, P M; Strohmer, D C; Prout, H T

1990-09-01

The robustness of the diagnostic overshadowing bias was examined by (a) testing the relation of overshadowing to level of mental retardation, (b) reexamining the effect of clinical experience in a more sensitive analysis, and (c) extending previous results to rehabilitation counselors. Diagnostic overshadowing was found with individuals with an IQ of 58, but did not generalize to those with IQs 70 or 80. This finding does not support the saliency hypothesis proposed by Reiss and his colleagues. In contrast to earlier studies, experience was related to overshadowing, although results were mixed. Experience measured by number of clients seen was not significant, whereas longevity in the field of mental retardation was associated with increased overshadowing.

Critical thinking about adverse drug effects: lessons from the psychology of risk and medical decision-making for clinical psychopharmacology.

PubMed

Nierenberg, Andrew A; Smoller, Jordan W; Eidelman, Polina; Wu, Yelena P; Tilley, Claire A

2008-01-01

Systematic biases in decision-making have been well characterized in medical and nonmedical fields but mostly ignored in clinical psychopharmacology. The purpose of this paper is to sensitize clinicians who prescribe psychiatric drugs to the issues of the psychology of risk, especially as they pertain to the risk of side effects. Specifically, the present analysis focuses on heuristic organization and framing effects that create cognitive biases in medical practice. Our purpose is to increase the awareness of how pharmaceutical companies may influence physicians by framing the risk of medication side effects to favor their products. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Investigating possible ethnicity and sex bias in clinical examiners: an analysis of data from the MRCP(UK) PACES and nPACES examinations.

PubMed

McManus, I C; Elder, Andrew T; Dacre, Jane

2013-07-30

Bias of clinical examiners against some types of candidate, based on characteristics such as sex or ethnicity, would represent a threat to the validity of an examination, since sex or ethnicity are 'construct-irrelevant' characteristics. In this paper we report a novel method for assessing sex and ethnic bias in over 2000 examiners who had taken part in the PACES and nPACES (new PACES) examinations of the MRCP(UK). PACES and nPACES are clinical skills examinations that have two examiners at each station who mark candidates independently. Differences between examiners cannot be due to differences in performance of a candidate because that is the same for the two examiners, and hence may result from bias or unreliability on the part of the examiners. By comparing each examiner against a 'basket' of all of their co-examiners, it is possible to identify examiners whose behaviour is anomalous. The method assessed hawkishness-doveishness, sex bias, ethnic bias and, as a control condition to assess the statistical method, 'even-number bias' (i.e. treating candidates with odd and even exam numbers differently). Significance levels were Bonferroni corrected because of the large number of examiners being considered. The results of 26 diets of PACES and six diets of nPACES were examined statistically to assess the extent of hawkishness, as well as sex bias and ethnicity bias in individual examiners. The control (odd-number) condition suggested that about 5% of examiners were significant at an (uncorrected) 5% level, and that the method therefore worked as expected. As in a previous study (BMC Medical Education, 2006, 6:42), some examiners were hawkish or doveish relative to their peers. No examiners showed significant sex bias, and only a single examiner showed evidence consistent with ethnic bias. A re-analysis of the data considering only one examiner per station, as would be the case for many clinical examinations, showed that analysis with a single examiner runs a serious risk of false positive identifications probably due to differences in case-mix and content-specificity. In examinations where there are two independent examiners at a station, our method can assess the extent of bias against candidates with particular characteristics. The method would be far less sensitive in examinations with only a single examiner per station as examiner variance would be confounded with candidate performance variance. The method however works well when there is more than one examiner at a station and in the case of the current MRCP(UK) clinical examination, nPACES, found possible sex bias in no examiners and possible ethnic bias in only one.

Deconstructing the smoking-preeclampsia paradox through a counterfactual framework.

PubMed

Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Zoega, Helga; Valdimarsdottir, Unnur; Williams, Michelle A

2016-06-01

Although smoking during pregnancy may lead to many adverse outcomes, numerous studies have reported a paradoxical inverse association between maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy and preeclampsia. Using a counterfactual framework we aimed to explore the structure of this paradox as being a consequence of selection bias. Using a case-control study nested in the Icelandic Birth Registry (1309 women), we show how this selection bias can be explored and corrected for. Cases were defined as any case of pregnancy induced hypertension or preeclampsia occurring after 20 weeks' gestation and controls as normotensive mothers who gave birth in the same year. First, we used directed acyclic graphs to illustrate the common bias structure. Second, we used classical logistic regression and mediation analytic methods for dichotomous outcomes to explore the structure of the bias. Lastly, we performed both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the amount of bias due to an uncontrolled confounder and corrected for it. The biased effect of smoking was estimated to reduce the odds of preeclampsia by 28 % (OR 0.72, 95 %CI 0.52, 0.99) and after stratification by gestational age at delivery (<37 vs. ≥37 gestation weeks) by 75 % (OR 0.25, 95 %CI 0.10, 0.68). In a mediation analysis, the natural indirect effect showed and OR > 1, revealing the structure of the paradox. The bias-adjusted estimation of the smoking effect on preeclampsia showed an OR of 1.22 (95 %CI 0.41, 6.53). The smoking-preeclampsia paradox appears to be an example of (1) selection bias most likely caused by studying cases prevalent at birth rather than all incident cases from conception in a pregnancy cohort, (2) omitting important confounders associated with both smoking and preeclampsia (preventing the outcome to develop) and (3) controlling for a collider (gestation weeks at delivery). Future studies need to consider these aspects when studying and interpreting the association between smoking and pregnancy outcomes.

Working Memory Capacity is Associated with Optimal Adaptation of Response Bias to Perceptual Sensitivity in Emotion Perception

PubMed Central

Lynn, Spencer K.; Ibagon, Camila; Bui, Eric; Palitz, Sophie A.; Simon, Naomi M.; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2017-01-01

Emotion perception, inferring the emotional state of another person, is a frequent judgment made under perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling facial expression can indicate anger or concentration) and behavioral risk (e.g., incorrect judgment can be costly to the perceiver). Working memory capacity (WMC), the ability to maintain controlled processing in the face of competing demands, is an important component of many decisions. We investigated the association of WMC and anger perception in a task in which “angry” and “not angry” categories comprised overlapping ranges of scowl intensity, and correct and incorrect responses earned and lost points, respectively. Participants attempted to earn as many points as they could; adopting an optimal response bias would maximize decision utility. Participants with higher WMC more optimally tuned their anger perception response bias to accommodate their perceptual sensitivity (their ability to discriminate the categories) than did participants with lower WMC. Other factors that influence response bias (i.e., the relative base rate of angry vs. not angry faces and the decision costs & benefits) were ruled out as contributors to the WMC-bias relationship. Our results suggest that WMC optimizes emotion perception by contributing to perceivers’ ability to adjust their response bias to account for their level of perceptual sensitivity, likely an important component of adapting emotion perception to dynamic social interactions and changing circumstances. PMID:26461251

Bias in estimating accuracy of a binary screening test with differential disease verification

PubMed Central

Brinton, John T.; Ringham, Brandy M.; Glueck, Deborah H.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value are typically used to quantify the accuracy of a binary screening test. In some studies it may not be ethical or feasible to obtain definitive disease ascertainment for all subjects using a gold standard test. When a gold standard test cannot be used an imperfect reference test that is less than 100% sensitive and specific may be used instead. In breast cancer screening, for example, follow-up for cancer diagnosis is used as an imperfect reference test for women where it is not possible to obtain gold standard results. This incomplete ascertainment of true disease, or differential disease verification, can result in biased estimates of accuracy. In this paper, we derive the apparent accuracy values for studies subject to differential verification. We determine how the bias is affected by the accuracy of the imperfect reference test, the percent who receive the imperfect reference standard test not receiving the gold standard, the prevalence of the disease, and the correlation between the results for the screening test and the imperfect reference test. It is shown that designs with differential disease verification can yield biased estimates of accuracy. Estimates of sensitivity in cancer screening trials may be substantially biased. However, careful design decisions, including selection of the imperfect reference test, can help to minimize bias. A hypothetical breast cancer screening study is used to illustrate the problem. PMID:21495059

Correcting bias due to missing stage data in the non-parametric estimation of stage-specific net survival for colorectal cancer using multiple imputation.

PubMed

Falcaro, Milena; Carpenter, James R

2017-06-01

Population-based net survival by tumour stage at diagnosis is a key measure in cancer surveillance. Unfortunately, data on tumour stage are often missing for a non-negligible proportion of patients and the mechanism giving rise to the missingness is usually anything but completely at random. In this setting, restricting analysis to the subset of complete records gives typically biased results. Multiple imputation is a promising practical approach to the issues raised by the missing data, but its use in conjunction with the Pohar-Perme method for estimating net survival has not been formally evaluated. We performed a resampling study using colorectal cancer population-based registry data to evaluate the ability of multiple imputation, used along with the Pohar-Perme method, to deliver unbiased estimates of stage-specific net survival and recover missing stage information. We created 1000 independent data sets, each containing 5000 patients. Stage data were then made missing at random under two scenarios (30% and 50% missingness). Complete records analysis showed substantial bias and poor confidence interval coverage. Across both scenarios our multiple imputation strategy virtually eliminated the bias and greatly improved confidence interval coverage. In the presence of missing stage data complete records analysis often gives severely biased results. We showed that combining multiple imputation with the Pohar-Perme estimator provides a valid practical approach for the estimation of stage-specific colorectal cancer net survival. As usual, when the percentage of missing data is high the results should be interpreted cautiously and sensitivity analyses are recommended. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cigarette smoking and telomere length: A systematic review of 84 studies and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Astuti, Yuliana; Wardhana, Ardyan; Watkins, Johnathan; Wulaningsih, Wahyu

2017-10-01

Cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ageing-related disease, but its association with biological ageing, indicated by telomere length, is unclear. We systematically reviewed evidence evaluating association between smoking status and telomere length. Searches were performed in MEDLINE (Ovid) and EMBASE (Ovid) databases, combining variation of keywords "smoking" and "telomere". Data was extracted for study characteristics and estimates for association between smoking and telomere length. Quality of studies was assessed with a risk of bias score, and publication bias was assessed with a funnel plot. I 2 test was used to observe heterogeneity. Meta-analysis was carried out to compare mean difference in telomere length by smoking status, and a dose-response approach was carried out for pack-years of smoking and telomere length. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to examine sources of heterogeneity. A total of 84 studies were included in the review, and 30 among them were included in our meta-analysis. Potential bias was addressed in half of included studies, and there was little evidence of small study bias. Telomere length was shorter among ever smokers compared to never smokers (summary standard mean difference [SMD]: -0.11 (95% CI -0.16 to -0.07)). Similarly, shorter telomere length was found among smokers compared to non-smokers, and among current smokers compared to never or former smokers. Dose-response meta-analysis suggested an inverse trend between pack-years of smoking and telomere length. However, heterogeneity among some analyses was observed. Shorter telomeres among ever smokers compared to those who never smoked may imply mechanisms linking tobacco smoke exposure to ageing-related disease. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Empathy costs: Negative emotional bias in high empathisers.

PubMed

Chikovani, George; Babuadze, Lasha; Iashvili, Nino; Gvalia, Tamar; Surguladze, Simon

2015-09-30

Excessive empathy has been associated with compassion fatigue in health professionals and caregivers. We investigated an effect of empathy on emotion processing in 137 healthy individuals of both sexes. We tested a hypothesis that high empathy may underlie increased sensitivity to negative emotion recognition which may interact with gender. Facial emotion stimuli comprised happy, angry, fearful, and sad faces presented at different intensities (mild and prototypical) and different durations (500ms and 2000ms). The parameters of emotion processing were represented by discrimination accuracy, response bias and reaction time. We found that higher empathy was associated with better recognition of all emotions. We also demonstrated that higher empathy was associated with response bias towards sad and fearful faces. The reaction time analysis revealed that higher empathy in females was associated with faster (compared with males) recognition of mildly sad faces of brief duration. We conclude that although empathic abilities were providing for advantages in recognition of all facial emotional expressions, the bias towards emotional negativity may potentially carry a risk for empathic distress. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts. [1] http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/

New design of a passive type RADFET reader for enhanced sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Dae-Hee

2016-07-01

We present a new design of a passive type RADFET reader with enhanced radiation sensitivity. Using a electostatic plate, we have applied a static electric field to the gate voltage, which impacts a positive biasing on the p-type MOSFET. The resultant effect shows that 1.8 times of radiation sensitivity increased when we measured the threshold voltage shift of the RADFET exposed to 30 krad irradiation. We discuss further about the characteristic changes of a RADFET according to the positive biasing on the gate voltage.

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J.; Perryck, Koen H.; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E.

2015-01-01

Background The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis. PMID:25765534

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors.

PubMed

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J; Perryck, Koen H; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E

2015-01-01

Background : The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods : First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results : Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion : We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis.

Smoking increases the risk of diabetic foot amputation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Min; Zhang, Wei; Yan, Zhaoli; Yuan, Xiangzhen

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that smoking is associated with diabetic foot amputation. However, the currently available results are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, the present study performed a meta-analysis to systematically review the association between smoking and diabetic foot amputation and to investigate the risk factors of diabetic foot amputation. Public databases, including PubMed and Embase, were searched prior to 29th February 2016. The heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2 statistic, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated and pooled appropriately. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. In addition, Egger's test was applied to assess any potential publication bias. Based on the research, a total of eight studies, including five cohort studies and three case control studies were included. The data indicated that smoking significantly increased the risk of diabetic foot amputation (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.50; P<0.0001) compared with non-smoking. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the pooled analysis did not vary substantially following the exclusion of any one study. Additionally, there was no evidence of publication bias (Egger's test, t=0.1378; P=0.8958). Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between the minor and major amputation groups in patients who smoked (OR=0.79; 95% CI, 0.24-2.58). The results of the present meta-analysis suggested that smoking is a notable risk factor for diabetic foot amputation. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of diabetic foot amputation.

Timing group delay and differential code bias corrections for BeiDou positioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Fei; Zhang, Xiaohong; Wang, Jinling

2015-05-01

This article first clearly figures out the relationship between parameters of timing group delay (TGD) and differential code bias (DCB) for BDS, and demonstrates the equivalence of TGD and DCB correction models combining theory with practice. The TGD/DCB correction models have been extended to various occasions for BDS positioning, and such models have been evaluated by real triple-frequency datasets. To test the effectiveness of broadcast TGDs in the navigation message and DCBs provided by the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX), both standard point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) tests are carried out for BDS signals with different schemes. Furthermore, the influence of differential code biases on BDS positioning estimates such as coordinates, receiver clock biases, tropospheric delays and carrier phase ambiguities is investigated comprehensively. Comparative analysis show that the unmodeled differential code biases degrade the performance of BDS SPP by a factor of two or more, whereas the estimates of PPP are subject to varying degrees of influences. For SPP, the accuracy of dual-frequency combinations is slightly worse than that of single-frequency, and they are much more sensitive to the differential code biases, particularly for the B2B3 combination. For PPP, the uncorrected differential code biases are mostly absorbed into the receiver clock bias and carrier phase ambiguities and thus resulting in a much longer convergence time. Even though the influence of the differential code biases could be mitigated over time and comparable positioning accuracy could be achieved after convergence, it is suggested to properly handle with the differential code biases since it is vital for PPP convergence and integer ambiguity resolution.

Is self-monitoring of blood glucose effective in improving glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes without insulin treatment: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongmei; Zhu, Yanan; Leung, Siu-wai

2016-01-01

Objective The present study aimed to verify the effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) in patients with non-insulin-treated type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods A comprehensive literature search was conducted in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, ScienceDirect and ClinicalTrials.gov from their respective inception dates to 26 October 2015. Eligible randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included according to prespecified criteria. The quality of the included RCTs was evaluated according to the Cochrane risk of bias tool, and the evidence quality of meta-analyses was assessed by the Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. A meta-analysis of primary and secondary outcome measures was performed. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were carried out to evaluate the robustness and heterogeneity of the findings. Begg's and Egger's tests were used to quantify publication biases. Results A total of 15 RCTs, comprising 3383 patients with non-insulin-treated T2D, met the inclusion criteria. The SMBG intervention improved glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) (mean difference −0.33; 95% CI −0.45 to −0.22; p=3.0730e−8; n=18), body mass index (BMI; −0.65; −1.18 to −0.12; p=0.0164; n=9) and total cholesterol (TC; −0.12; −0.20 to −0.04; p=0.0034; n=8) more effectively than the control in overall effect. The sensitivity analysis revealed little difference in overall effect, indicating the robustness of the results. SMBG moderated HbA1c levels better than the control in all subgroup analyses. Most of the RCTs had high risk of bias in blinding, while the overall quality of evidence for HbA1c was moderate according to the GRADE criteria. Publication bias was moderate for BMI. Conclusions SMBG improved HbA1c levels in the short term (≤6-month follow-up) and long term (≥12-month follow-up) in patients with T2D who were not using insulin. Trial registration number CRD42015019099. PMID:27591016

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk.

PubMed

Canfield, Casey Inez; Fischhoff, Baruch

2018-04-01

Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Analysis of the Astronomy Diagnostic Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brogt, Erik; Sabers, Darrell; Prather, Edward E.; Deming, Grace L.; Hufnagel, Beth; Slater, Timothy F.

Seventy undergraduate class sections were examined from the database of Astronomy Diagnostic Test (ADT) results of Deming and Hufnagel to determine if course format correlated with ADT normalized gain scores. Normalized gains were calculated for four different classroom scenarios: lecture, lecture with discussion, lecture with lab, and lecture with both lab and discussion. Statistical analysis shows that there are no significant differences in normalized gain among the self- reported classroom formats. Prerequisites related to mathematics courses did show differences in normalized gain. Of all reported course activities, only the lecture and the readings for the course correlate significantly with the normalized gain. This analysis suggests that the ADT may not have enough sensitivity to measure differences in the effectiveness of different course formats because of the wide range of topics that the ADT addresses with few questions. Different measures of gain and their biases are discussed. We argue that the use of the normalized gain is not always warranted because of its strong bias toward high pretest scores.

Treatment evolution and new standards of care: implications for cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Shechter, Steven M

2011-01-01

Traditional approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis have not considered the downstream possibility of a new standard of care coming out of the research and development pipeline. However, the treatment landscape for patients may change significantly over the course of their lifetimes. To present a Markov modeling framework that incorporates the possibility of treatment evolution into the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) that compares treatments available at the present time. . Markov model evaluated by matrix algebra. Measurements. The author evaluates the difference between the new and traditional ICER calculations for patients with chronic diseases facing a lifetime of treatment. The bias of the traditional ICER calculation may be substantial, with further testing revealing that it may be either positive or negative depending on the model parameters. The author also performs probabilistic sensitivity analyses with respect to the possible timing of a new treatment discovery and notes the increase in the magnitude of the bias when the new treatment is likely to appear sooner rather than later. Limitations. The modeling framework is intended as a proof of concept and therefore makes simplifying assumptions such as time stationarity of model parameters and consideration of a single new drug discovery. For diseases with a more active research and development pipeline, the possibility of a new treatment paradigm may be at least as important to consider in sensitivity analysis as other parameters that are often considered.

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2016-01-05

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

Comparing multilayer brain networks between groups: Introducing graph metrics and recommendations.

PubMed

Mandke, Kanad; Meier, Jil; Brookes, Matthew J; O'Dea, Reuben D; Van Mieghem, Piet; Stam, Cornelis J; Hillebrand, Arjan; Tewarie, Prejaas

2018-02-01

There is an increasing awareness of the advantages of multi-modal neuroimaging. Networks obtained from different modalities are usually treated in isolation, which is however contradictory to accumulating evidence that these networks show non-trivial interdependencies. Even networks obtained from a single modality, such as frequency-band specific functional networks measured from magnetoencephalography (MEG) are often treated independently. Here, we discuss how a multilayer network framework allows for integration of multiple networks into a single network description and how graph metrics can be applied to quantify multilayer network organisation for group comparison. We analyse how well-known biases for single layer networks, such as effects of group differences in link density and/or average connectivity, influence multilayer networks, and we compare four schemes that aim to correct for such biases: the minimum spanning tree (MST), effective graph resistance cost minimisation, efficiency cost optimisation (ECO) and a normalisation scheme based on singular value decomposition (SVD). These schemes can be applied to the layers independently or to the multilayer network as a whole. For correction applied to whole multilayer networks, only the SVD showed sufficient bias correction. For correction applied to individual layers, three schemes (ECO, MST, SVD) could correct for biases. By using generative models as well as empirical MEG and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we further demonstrated that all schemes were sensitive to identify network topology when the original networks were perturbed. In conclusion, uncorrected multilayer network analysis leads to biases. These biases may differ between centres and studies and could consequently lead to unreproducible results in a similar manner as for single layer networks. We therefore recommend using correction schemes prior to multilayer network analysis for group comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

2013-01-01

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

HYPNOTIC TACTILE ANESTHESIA: Psychophysical and Signal-Detection Analyses

PubMed Central

Tataryn, Douglas J.; Kihlstrom, John F.

2017-01-01

Two experiments that studied the effects of hypnotic suggestions on tactile sensitivity are reported. Experiment 1 found that suggestions for anesthesia, as measured by both traditional psychophysical methods and signal detection procedures, were linearly related to hypnotizability. Experiment 2 employed the same methodologies in an application of the real-simulator paradigm to examine the effects of suggestions for both anesthesia and hyperesthesia. Significant effects of hypnotic suggestion on both sensitivity and bias were found in the anesthesia condition but not for the hyperesthesia condition. A new bias parameter, C′, indicated that much of the bias found in the initial analyses was artifactual, a function of changes in sensitivity across conditions. There were no behavioral differences between reals and simulators in any of the conditions, though analyses of postexperimental interviews suggested the 2 groups had very different phenomenal experiences. PMID:28230465

Association between diabetes mellitus and gastroesophageal reflux disease: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiao-Meng; Tan, Jia-Cheng; Zhu, Ying; Lin, Lin

2015-01-01

AIM: To investigate whether there is a link between diabetes mellitus (DM) and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). METHODS: We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and Web of Science databases, from their respective inceptions until December 31, 2013, for articles evaluating the relationship between DM and GERD. Studies were selected for analysis based on certain inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were extracted from each study on the basis of predefined items. A meta-analysis was performed to compare the odds ratio (OR) in DM between individuals with and without GERD using a fixed effect or random effect model, depending on the absence or presence of significant heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were used to identify sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was assessed by Begg’s test. To evaluate the results, we also performed a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: When the electronic database and hand searches were combined, a total of nine eligible articles involving 9067 cases and 81 968 controls were included in our meta-analysis. Based on the random-effects model, these studies identified a significant association between DM and the risk of GERD (overall OR = 1.61; 95%CI: 1.36-1.91; P = 0.003). Subgroup analyses indicated that this result persisted in studies on populations from Eastern countries (OR = 1.71; 95%CI: 1.38-2.12; P = 0.003) and in younger patients (mean age < 50 years) (OR = 1.70; 95%CI: 1.22-2.37; P = 0.001). No significant publication bias was observed in this meta-analysis using Begg’s test (P = 0.175). The sensitivity analysis also confirmed the stability of our results. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis suggests that patients with DM are at greater risk of GERD than those who do not have DM. PMID:25780309

Meta analysis of angiotensin-converting enzyme I/D polymorphism as a risk factor for preeclampsia in Chinese women.

PubMed

Zhong, W G; Wang, Y; Zhu, H; Zhao, X

2012-08-13

Preeclampsia affects 3-8% of pregnancies and is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Inappropriate activation of the renin-angiotensin system may play a role in the development of preeclampsia. An insertion/deletion polymorphism in the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene (ACE-I/D) has been associated with differences in ACE activity. However, there are controversies in reports on the association of ACE-I/D with preeclampsia. Data were analyzed using Review Manager Version 5.0 and a random effects model was applied irrespective of between studies heterogeneity, which was evaluated via sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Publication bias was evaluated using the fail-safe number. A systematic search was performed based on published case control studies up to October 1, 2011, and 11 studies were included, involving 800 patients and 949 controls. Significant association of the ACE D allele with increase risk of preeclampsia was found (odds ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence interval = 1.19-3.12; P = 0.008). Sensitivity analysis showed that no individual study had an undue influence on the summary odds ratios for all contrasts. An analysis stratified by study size showed an attenuated odds ratio towards a null effect as study size increased. Based on our meta-analysis, we suggest that the D allele of the ACE gene is related with increased risk for preeclampsia in the Chinese population. Considering the potential existence of small study bias, further research should be performed with a larger dataset.

Accounting for technical noise in differential expression analysis of single-cell RNA sequencing data.

PubMed

Jia, Cheng; Hu, Yu; Kelly, Derek; Kim, Junhyong; Li, Mingyao; Zhang, Nancy R

2017-11-02

Recent technological breakthroughs have made it possible to measure RNA expression at the single-cell level, thus paving the way for exploring expression heterogeneity among individual cells. Current single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) protocols are complex and introduce technical biases that vary across cells, which can bias downstream analysis without proper adjustment. To account for cell-to-cell technical differences, we propose a statistical framework, TASC (Toolkit for Analysis of Single Cell RNA-seq), an empirical Bayes approach to reliably model the cell-specific dropout rates and amplification bias by use of external RNA spike-ins. TASC incorporates the technical parameters, which reflect cell-to-cell batch effects, into a hierarchical mixture model to estimate the biological variance of a gene and detect differentially expressed genes. More importantly, TASC is able to adjust for covariates to further eliminate confounding that may originate from cell size and cell cycle differences. In simulation and real scRNA-seq data, TASC achieves accurate Type I error control and displays competitive sensitivity and improved robustness to batch effects in differential expression analysis, compared to existing methods. TASC is programmed to be computationally efficient, taking advantage of multi-threaded parallelization. We believe that TASC will provide a robust platform for researchers to leverage the power of scRNA-seq. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Accounting for technical noise in differential expression analysis of single-cell RNA sequencing data

PubMed Central

Jia, Cheng; Hu, Yu; Kelly, Derek; Kim, Junhyong

2017-01-01

Abstract Recent technological breakthroughs have made it possible to measure RNA expression at the single-cell level, thus paving the way for exploring expression heterogeneity among individual cells. Current single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) protocols are complex and introduce technical biases that vary across cells, which can bias downstream analysis without proper adjustment. To account for cell-to-cell technical differences, we propose a statistical framework, TASC (Toolkit for Analysis of Single Cell RNA-seq), an empirical Bayes approach to reliably model the cell-specific dropout rates and amplification bias by use of external RNA spike-ins. TASC incorporates the technical parameters, which reflect cell-to-cell batch effects, into a hierarchical mixture model to estimate the biological variance of a gene and detect differentially expressed genes. More importantly, TASC is able to adjust for covariates to further eliminate confounding that may originate from cell size and cell cycle differences. In simulation and real scRNA-seq data, TASC achieves accurate Type I error control and displays competitive sensitivity and improved robustness to batch effects in differential expression analysis, compared to existing methods. TASC is programmed to be computationally efficient, taking advantage of multi-threaded parallelization. We believe that TASC will provide a robust platform for researchers to leverage the power of scRNA-seq. PMID:29036714

Bias in the Social Studies Curricula.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamott, Stephen

There has always been a traditional bias in the learning materials used in schools. Due to a growing awareness of this bias, educators have become sensitive to the need for change in curricular materials. The trend in textbook publication has been to pretend that discrimination no longer exists in the United States. The extensive textbook…

Gene × environment interaction on intergroup bias: the role of 5-HTTLPR and perceived outgroup threat.

PubMed

Cheon, Bobby K; Livingston, Robert W; Hong, Ying-Yi; Chiao, Joan Y

2014-09-01

Perceived threat from outgroups is a consistent social-environmental antecedent of intergroup bias (i.e. prejudice, ingroup favoritism). The serotonin transporter gene polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) has been associated with individual variations in sensitivity to context, particularly stressful and threatening situations. Here, we examined how 5-HTTLPR and environmental factors signaling potential outgroup threat dynamically interact to shape intergroup bias. Across two studies, we provide novel evidence for a gene-environment interaction on the acquisition of intergroup bias and prejudice. Greater exposure to signals of outgroup threat, such as negative prior contact with outgroups and perceived danger from the social environment, were more predictive of intergroup bias among participants possessing at least one short allele (vs two long alleles) of 5-HTTLPR. Furthermore, this gene x environment interaction was observed for biases directed at diverse ethnic and arbitrarily-defined outgroups across measures reflecting intergroup biases in evaluation and discriminatory behavior. These findings reveal a candidate genetic mechanism for the acquisition of intergroup bias, and suggest that intergroup bias is dually inherited and transmitted through the interplay of social (i.e. contextual cues of outgroup threat) and biological mechanisms (i.e. genetic sensitivity toward threatening contexts) that regulate perceived intergroup threats. © The Author (2013). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Heuristics and bias in rectal surgery.

PubMed

MacDermid, Ewan; Young, Christopher J; Moug, Susan J; Anderson, Robert G; Shepherd, Heather L

2017-08-01

Deciding to defunction after anterior resection can be difficult, requiring cognitive tools or heuristics. From our previous work, increasing age and risk-taking propensity were identified as heuristic biases for surgeons in Australia and New Zealand (CSSANZ), and inversely proportional to the likelihood of creating defunctioning stomas. We aimed to assess these factors for colorectal surgeons in the British Isles, and identify other potential biases. The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) was invited to complete an online survey. Questions included demographics, risk-taking propensity, sensitivity to professional criticism, self-perception of anastomotic leak rate and propensity for creating defunctioning stomas. Chi-squared testing was used to assess differences between ACPGBI and CSSANZ respondents. Multiple regression analysis identified independent surgeon predictors of stoma formation. One hundred fifty (19.2%) eligible members of the ACPGBI replied. Demographics between ACPGBI and CSSANZ groups were well-matched. Significantly more ACPGBI surgeons admitted to anastomotic leak in the last year (p < 0.001). ACPGBI surgeon age over 50 (p = 0.02), higher risk-taking propensity across several domains (p = 0.044), self-belief in a lower-than-average anastomotic leak rate (p = 0.02) and belief that the average risk of leak after anterior resection is 8% or lower (p = 0.007) were all independent predictors of less frequent stoma formation. Sensitivity to criticism from colleagues was not a predictor of stoma formation. Unrecognised surgeon factors including age, everyday risk-taking, self-belief in surgical ability and lower probability bias of anastomotic leak appear to exert an effect on decision-making in rectal surgery.

Social Decision Making in Adolescents and Young Adults: Evidence From the Ultimatum Game and Cognitive Biases.

PubMed

Marchetti, Antonella; Baglio, Francesca; Castelli, Ilaria; Griffanti, Ludovica; Nemni, Raffaello; Rossetto, Federica; Valle, Annalisa; Zanette, Michela; Massaro, Davide

2018-01-01

During adolescence and early adulthood, individuals deal with important developmental changes, especially in the context of complex social interactions. Previous studies demonstrated that those changes have a significant impact on the social decision making process, in terms of a progressive increase of intentionality comprehension of others, of the sensitivity to fairness, and of the impermeability to decisional biases. However, neither adolescents nor adults reach the ideal level of maximization and of rationality of the homo economicus proposed by classical economics theory, thus remaining more close to the model of the "bounded rationality" proposed by cognitive psychology. In the present study, we analyzed two aspects of decision making in 110 participants from early adolescence to young adulthood: the sensitivity to fairness and the permeability to decisional biases (Outcome Bias and Hindsight Bias). To address these questions, we adopted a modified version of the Ultimatum Game task, where participants faced fair, unfair, and hyperfair offers from proposers described as generous, selfish, or neutral. We also administered two behavioral tasks testing the influence of the Outcome Bias and of the Hindsight Bias in the evaluation of the decision. Our behavioral results highlighted that the participants are still partially consequentialist, as the decisional process is influenced by a complex balance between the outcome and the psychological description of the proposer. As regards cognitive biases, the Outcome Bias and the Hindsight Bias are present in the whole sample, with no relevant age differences.

Which Measures of Online Control Are Least Sensitive to Offline Processes?

PubMed

de Grosbois, John; Tremblay, Luc

2018-02-28

A major challenge to the measurement of online control is the contamination by offline, planning-based processes. The current study examined the sensitivity of four measures of online control to offline changes in reaching performance induced by prism adaptation and terminal feedback. These measures included the squared Z scores (Z 2 ) of correlations of limb position at 75% movement time versus movement end, variable error, time after peak velocity, and a frequency-domain analysis (pPower). The results indicated that variable error and time after peak velocity were sensitive to the prism adaptation. Furthermore, only the Z 2 values were biased by the terminal feedback. Ultimately, the current study has demonstrated the sensitivity of limb kinematic measures to offline control processes and that pPower analyses may yield the most suitable measure of online control.

Highly sensitive MoTe2 chemical sensor with fast recovery rate through gate biasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Zhihong; Xie, Yuan; Chen, Jiancui; Yu, Yuanyuan; Zheng, Shijun; Zhang, Rui; Li, Quanning; Chen, Xuejiao; Sun, Chongling; Zhang, Hao; Pang, Wei; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Daihua

2017-06-01

The unique properties of two dimensional (2D) materials make them promising candidates for chemical and biological sensing applications. However, most 2D nanomaterial sensors suffer very long recovery time due to slow molecular desorption at room temperature. Here, we report a highly sensitive molybdenum ditelluride (MoTe2) gas sensor for NO2 and NH3 detection with greatly enhanced recovery rate. The effects of gate bias on sensing performance have been systematically studied. It is found that the recovery kinetics can be effectively adjusted by biasing the sensor to different gate voltages. Under the optimum biasing potential, the MoTe2 sensor can achieve more than 90% recovery after each sensing cycle well within 10 min at room temperature. The results demonstrate the potential of MoTe2 as a promising candidate for high-performance chemical sensors. The idea of exploiting gate bias to adjust molecular desorption kinetics can be readily applied to much wider sensing platforms based on 2D nanomaterials.

Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

PubMed

MacGillivray, Brian H

2017-08-01

In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases; and basing decision rules on clearly articulated values and evidence, rather than convention. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Quantitative image analysis of immunohistochemical stains using a CMYK color model

PubMed Central

Pham, Nhu-An; Morrison, Andrew; Schwock, Joerg; Aviel-Ronen, Sarit; Iakovlev, Vladimir; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Ho, James; Hedley, David W

2007-01-01

Background Computer image analysis techniques have decreased effects of observer biases, and increased the sensitivity and the throughput of immunohistochemistry (IHC) as a tissue-based procedure for the evaluation of diseases. Methods We adapted a Cyan/Magenta/Yellow/Key (CMYK) model for automated computer image analysis to quantify IHC stains in hematoxylin counterstained histological sections. Results The spectral characteristics of the chromogens AEC, DAB and NovaRed as well as the counterstain hematoxylin were first determined using CMYK, Red/Green/Blue (RGB), normalized RGB and Hue/Saturation/Lightness (HSL) color models. The contrast of chromogen intensities on a 0–255 scale (24-bit image file) as well as compared to the hematoxylin counterstain was greatest using the Yellow channel of a CMYK color model, suggesting an improved sensitivity for IHC evaluation compared to other color models. An increase in activated STAT3 levels due to growth factor stimulation, quantified using the Yellow channel image analysis was associated with an increase detected by Western blotting. Two clinical image data sets were used to compare the Yellow channel automated method with observer-dependent methods. First, a quantification of DAB-labeled carbonic anhydrase IX hypoxia marker in 414 sections obtained from 138 biopsies of cervical carcinoma showed strong association between Yellow channel and positive color selection results. Second, a linear relationship was also demonstrated between Yellow intensity and visual scoring for NovaRed-labeled epidermal growth factor receptor in 256 non-small cell lung cancer biopsies. Conclusion The Yellow channel image analysis method based on a CMYK color model is independent of observer biases for threshold and positive color selection, applicable to different chromogens, tolerant of hematoxylin, sensitive to small changes in IHC intensity and is applicable to simple automation procedures. These characteristics are advantageous for both basic as well as clinical research in an unbiased, reproducible and high throughput evaluation of IHC intensity. PMID:17326824

MR coil sensitivity inhomogeneity correction for plaque characterization in carotid arteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvado, Olivier; Hillenbrand, Claudia; Suri, Jasjit; Wilson, David L.

2004-05-01

We are involved in a comprehensive program to characterize atherosclerotic disease using multiple MR images having different contrast mechanisms (T1W, T2W, PDW, magnetization transfer, etc.) of human carotid and animal model arteries. We use specially designed intravascular and surface array coils that give high signal-to-noise but suffer from sensitivity inhomogeneity. With carotid surface coils, challenges include: (1) a steep bias field with an 80% change; (2) presence of nearby muscular structures lacking high frequency information to distinguish bias from anatomical features; (3) many confounding zero-valued voxels subject to fat suppression, blood flow cancellation, or air, which are not subject to coil sensitivity; and (4) substantial noise. Bias was corrected using a modification of the adaptive fuzzy c-mean method reported by Pham et al. (IEEE TMI, 18:738-752), whereby a bias field modeled as a mechanical membrane was iteratively improved until cluster means no longer changed. Because our images were noisy, we added a noise reduction filtering step between iterations and used about 5 classes. In a digital phantom having a bias field measured from our MR system, variations across an area comparable to a carotid artery were reduced from 50% to <5% with processing. Human carotid images were qualitatively improved and large regions of skeletal muscle were relatively flat. Other commonly applied techniques failed to segment the images or introduced strong edge artifacts. Current evaluations include comparisons to bias as measured by a body coil in human MR images.

Residential road traffic noise as a risk factor for hypertension in adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis of analytic studies published in the period 2011-2017.

PubMed

Dzhambov, Angel M; Dimitrova, Donka D

2018-05-07

Multiple cross-sectional studies indicated an association between hypertension and road traffic noise and they were recently synthetized in a WHO systematic evidence review. However, recent years have seen a growing body of high-quality, large-scale research, which is missing from the WHO review. Therefore, we aimed to close that gap by conducting an updated systematic review and meta-analysis on the exposure-response relationship between residential road traffic noise and the risk of hypertension in adults. Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Internet, conference proceedings, reference lists, and expert archives in English, Russian, and Spanish through August 5, 2017. The risk of bias for each extracted estimate and the overall quality of evidence were evaluated using a list of predefined safeguards against bias related to different study characteristics and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system, respectively. The inverse variance heterogeneity (IVhet) model was used for meta-analysis. The possibility of publication bias was evaluated by funnel and Doi plots, and asymmetry in these was tested with Egger's test and the Luis Furuya-Kanamori index, respectively. Sensitivity analyses included leave-one-out meta-analysis, subgroup meta-analysis with meta-regressions, and non-linear exposure-response meta-analysis. Based on seven cohort and two case-control studies (n = 5 514 555; 14 estimates; L den range ≈ 25-90 dB(A)), we found "low" evidence of RR per 10 dB(A)  = 1.018 (95% CI: 0.984, 1.053), moderate heterogeneity (I 2  = 46%), and no publication bias. In the subgroup of cohort studies, we found "moderate" evidence of RR per 10 dB(A)  = 1.018 (95% CI: 0.987, 1.049), I 2  = 31%, and no publication bias. In conclusion, residential road traffic noise was associated with higher risk of hypertension in adults, but the risk was lower than previously reported in the systematic review literature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hua, Xiaoli; Yu, Lili; You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68-0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58-0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71-1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger's test (p = 0.26). This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Background Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. Methods We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Results Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50–0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58–0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71–1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger’s test (p = 0.26). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted. PMID:26960146

SLC6A3 polymorphism and response to methylphenidate in children with ADHD: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Soleimani, Robabeh; Salehi, Zivar; Soltanipour, Soheil; Hasandokht, Tolou; Jalali, Mir Mohammad

2018-04-01

Methylphenidate (MPH) is the most commonly used treatment for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children. However, the response to MPH is not similar in all patients. This meta-analysis investigated the potential role of SLC6A3 polymorphisms in response to MPH in children with ADHD. Clinical trials or naturalistic studies were selected from electronic databases. A meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects model. Cohen's d effect size and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined. Sensitivity analysis and meta-regression were performed. Q-statistic and Egger's tests were conducted to evaluate heterogeneity and publication bias, respectively. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system was used to assess the quality of evidence. Sixteen studies with follow-up periods of 1-28 weeks were eligible. The mean treatment acceptability of MPH was 97.2%. In contrast to clinical trials, the meta-analysis of naturalistic studies indicated that children without 10/10 repeat carriers had better response to MPH (Cohen's d: -0.09 and 0.44, respectively). The 9/9 repeat polymorphism had no effect on the response rate (Cohen's d: -0.43). In the meta-regression, a significant association was observed between baseline severity of ADHD, MPH dosage, and combined type of ADHD in some genetic models. Sensitivity analysis indicated the robustness of our findings. No publication bias was observed in our meta-analysis. The GRADE evaluations revealed very low levels of confidence for each outcome of response to MPH. The results of clinical trials and naturalistic studies regarding the effect size between different polymorphisms of SLC6A3 were contradictory. Therefore, further research is recommended. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of honey use on the management of radio/chemotherapy-induced mucositis: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Xu, J-L; Xia, R; Sun, Z-H; Sun, L; Min, X; Liu, C; Zhang, H; Zhu, Y-M

2016-12-01

This meta-analysis aimed to assess the prophylactic effects of honey use on the management of radio/chemotherapy-induced mucositis. PubMed, Cochrane Library, Science Direct, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP (Chinese scientific journal database), and China Biology Medicine (CBM) were searched for relevant articles without language restriction. Two reviewers searched and evaluated the related studies independently. Statistical analyses were performed using Stata 11.0, calculating the pooled risk ratio (RR) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Begg's funnel plot was used together with Egger's test to detect publication bias. A total of seven randomized controlled trials were finally included. Quality assessment showed one article to have a low risk of bias, two to have a moderate risk, and four to have a high risk. Meta-analysis showed that, compared with blank control, honey treatment could reduce the incidence of oral mucositis after radio/chemotherapy (RR 0.35, 95% CI 0.18-0.70, P=0.003). No meta-analysis was applied for honey vs. lidocaine or honey vs. golden syrup. The sensitivity analysis showed no significant change when any one study was excluded. No obvious publication bias (honey vs. blank control) was detected. In conclusion, honey can effectively reduce the incidence of radio/chemotherapy-induced oral mucositis; however, further multi-centre randomized controlled trials are needed to support the current evidence. Copyright © 2016 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of exercise on depression in university students: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Yan, Shi; Jin, YinZhe; Oh, YongSeok; Choi, YoungJun

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of exercise on depression in university students. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane library from their inception through December 10, 2014 to identify relevant articles. The heterogeneity across studies was examined by Cochran's Q statistic and the I2 statistic. Standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled to evaluate the effect of exercise on depression. Then, sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed. In addition, publication bias was assessed by drawing a funnel plot. A total of 352 participants (154 cases and 182 controls) from eight included trials were included. Our pooled result showed a significant alleviative depression after exercise (SMD=-0.50, 95% CI: -0.97 to -0.03, P=0.04) with significant heterogeneity (P=0.003, I2=67%). Sensitivity analyses showed that the pooled result may be unstable. Subgroup analysis indicated that sample size may be a source of heterogeneity. Moreover, no publication bias was observed in this study. Exercise may be an effective therapy for treating depression in university students. However, further clinical studies with strict design and large samples focused on this specific population should be warranted in the future.

Vicarious Social Touch Biases Gazing at Faces and Facial Emotions.

PubMed

Schirmer, Annett; Ng, Tabitha; Ebstein, Richard P

2018-02-01

Research has suggested that interpersonal touch promotes social processing and other-concern, and that women may respond to it more sensitively than men. In this study, we asked whether this phenomenon would extend to third-party observers who experience touch vicariously. In an eye-tracking experiment, participants (N = 64, 32 men and 32 women) viewed prime and target images with the intention of remembering them. Primes comprised line drawings of dyadic interactions with and without touch. Targets comprised two faces shown side-by-side, with one being neutral and the other being happy or sad. Analysis of prime fixations revealed that faces in touch interactions attracted longer gazing than faces in no-touch interactions. In addition, touch enhanced gazing at the area of touch in women but not men. Analysis of target fixations revealed that touch priming increased looking at both faces immediately after target onset, and subsequently, at the emotional face in the pair. Sex differences in target processing were nonsignificant. Together, the present results imply that vicarious touch biases visual attention to faces and promotes emotion sensitivity. In addition, they suggest that, compared with men, women are more aware of tactile exchanges in their environment. As such, vicarious touch appears to share important qualities with actual physical touch. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

Comparison of Self-Reported Telephone Interviewing and Web-Based Survey Responses: Findings From the Second Australian Young and Well National Survey

PubMed Central

Davenport, Tracey A; Burns, Jane M; Hickie, Ian B

2017-01-01

Background Web-based self-report surveying has increased in popularity, as it can rapidly yield large samples at a low cost. Despite this increase in popularity, in the area of youth mental health, there is a distinct lack of research comparing the results of Web-based self-report surveys with the more traditional and widely accepted computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). Objective The Second Australian Young and Well National Survey 2014 sought to compare differences in respondent response patterns using matched items on CATI versus a Web-based self-report survey. The aim of this study was to examine whether responses varied as a result of item sensitivity, that is, the item’s susceptibility to exaggeration on underreporting and to assess whether certain subgroups demonstrated this effect to a greater extent. Methods A subsample of young people aged 16 to 25 years (N=101), recruited through the Second Australian Young and Well National Survey 2014, completed the identical items on two occasions: via CATI and via Web-based self-report survey. Respondents also rated perceived item sensitivity. Results When comparing CATI with the Web-based self-report survey, a Wilcoxon signed-rank analysis showed that respondents answered 14 of the 42 matched items in a significantly different way. Significant variation in responses (CATI vs Web-based) was more frequent if the item was also rated by the respondents as highly sensitive in nature. Specifically, 63% (5/8) of the high sensitivity items, 43% (3/7) of the neutral sensitivity items, and 0% (0/4) of the low sensitivity items were answered in a significantly different manner by respondents when comparing their matched CATI and Web-based question responses. The items that were perceived as highly sensitive by respondents and demonstrated response variability included the following: sexting activities, body image concerns, experience of diagnosis, and suicidal ideation. For high sensitivity items, a regression analysis showed respondents who were male (beta=−.19, P=.048) or who were not in employment, education, or training (NEET; beta=−.32, P=.001) were significantly more likely to provide different responses on matched items when responding in the CATI as compared with the Web-based self-report survey. The Web-based self-report survey, however, demonstrated some evidence of avidity and attrition bias. Conclusions Compared with CATI, Web-based self-report surveys are highly cost-effective and had higher rates of self-disclosure on sensitive items, particularly for respondents who identify as male and NEET. A drawback to Web-based surveying methodologies, however, includes the limited control over avidity bias and the greater incidence of attrition bias. These findings have important implications for further development of survey methods in the area of health and well-being, especially when considering research topics (in this case diagnosis, suicidal ideation, sexting, and body image) and groups that are being recruited (young people, males, and NEET). PMID:28951382

They Are Laughing at Me: Cerebral Mediation of Cognitive Biases in Social Anxiety

PubMed Central

Kreifelts, Benjamin; Brück, Carolin; Ritter, Jan; Ethofer, Thomas; Domin, Martin; Lotze, Martin; Jacob, Heike

2014-01-01

The fear of embarrassment and humiliation is the central element of social anxiety. This frequent condition is associated with cognitive biases indicating increased sensitivity to signals of social threat, which are assumed to play a causal role in the maintenance of social anxiety. Here, we employed laughter, a potent medium for the expression of acceptance and rejection, as an experimental stimulus in participants selected for varying degrees of social anxiety to identify cerebral mediators of cognitive biases in social anxiety using functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with mediation analysis. We directly demonstrated that cerebral activation patterns within the dorsal attention network including the left dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex mediate the influence of social anxiety on laughter perception. This mediation proved to be specific for social anxiety after correction for measures of general state and trait anxiety and occurred most prominently under bimodal audiovisual laughter presentation when compared with monomodal auditory or visual laughter cues. Considering the possibility to modulate cognitive biases and cerebral activity by neuropsychological trainings, non-invasive electrophysiological stimulation and psychotherapy, this study represents a starting point for a whole line of translational research projects and identifies promising targets for electrophysiological interventions aiming to alleviate cognitive biases and symptom severity in social anxiety. PMID:24918625

They are laughing at me: cerebral mediation of cognitive biases in social anxiety.

PubMed

Kreifelts, Benjamin; Brück, Carolin; Ritter, Jan; Ethofer, Thomas; Domin, Martin; Lotze, Martin; Jacob, Heike; Schlipf, Sarah; Wildgruber, Dirk

2014-01-01

The fear of embarrassment and humiliation is the central element of social anxiety. This frequent condition is associated with cognitive biases indicating increased sensitivity to signals of social threat, which are assumed to play a causal role in the maintenance of social anxiety. Here, we employed laughter, a potent medium for the expression of acceptance and rejection, as an experimental stimulus in participants selected for varying degrees of social anxiety to identify cerebral mediators of cognitive biases in social anxiety using functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with mediation analysis. We directly demonstrated that cerebral activation patterns within the dorsal attention network including the left dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex mediate the influence of social anxiety on laughter perception. This mediation proved to be specific for social anxiety after correction for measures of general state and trait anxiety and occurred most prominently under bimodal audiovisual laughter presentation when compared with monomodal auditory or visual laughter cues. Considering the possibility to modulate cognitive biases and cerebral activity by neuropsychological trainings, non-invasive electrophysiological stimulation and psychotherapy, this study represents a starting point for a whole line of translational research projects and identifies promising targets for electrophysiological interventions aiming to alleviate cognitive biases and symptom severity in social anxiety.

Sensitivity and specificity of a digit symbol recognition trial in the identification of response bias.

PubMed

Kim, Nancy; Boone, Kyle B; Victor, Tara; Lu, Po; Keatinge, Carolyn; Mitchell, Cary

2010-08-01

Recently published practice standards recommend that multiple effort indicators be interspersed throughout neuropsychological evaluations to assess for response bias, which is most efficiently accomplished through use of effort indicators from standard cognitive tests already included in test batteries. The present study examined the utility of a timed recognition trial added to standard administration of the WAIS-III Digit Symbol subtest in a large sample of "real world" noncredible patients (n=82) as compared with credible neuropsychology clinic patients (n=89). Scores from the recognition trial were more sensitive in identifying poor effort than were standard Digit Symbol scores, and use of an equation incorporating Digit Symbol Age-Corrected Scaled Scores plus accuracy and time scores from the recognition trial was associated with nearly 80% sensitivity at 88.7% specificity. Thus, inclusion of a brief recognition trial to Digit Symbol administration has the potential to provide accurate assessment of response bias.

Distinguishing bias from sensitivity effects in multialternative detection tasks.

PubMed

Sridharan, Devarajan; Steinmetz, Nicholas A; Moore, Tirin; Knudsen, Eric I

2014-08-21

Studies investigating the neural bases of cognitive phenomena increasingly employ multialternative detection tasks that seek to measure the ability to detect a target stimulus or changes in some target feature (e.g., orientation or direction of motion) that could occur at one of many locations. In such tasks, it is essential to distinguish the behavioral and neural correlates of enhanced perceptual sensitivity from those of increased bias for a particular location or choice (choice bias). However, making such a distinction is not possible with established approaches. We present a new signal detection model that decouples the behavioral effects of choice bias from those of perceptual sensitivity in multialternative (change) detection tasks. By formulating the perceptual decision in a multidimensional decision space, our model quantifies the respective contributions of bias and sensitivity to multialternative behavioral choices. With a combination of analytical and numerical approaches, we demonstrate an optimal, one-to-one mapping between model parameters and choice probabilities even for tasks involving arbitrarily large numbers of alternatives. We validated the model with published data from two ternary choice experiments: a target-detection experiment and a length-discrimination experiment. The results of this validation provided novel insights into perceptual processes (sensory noise and competitive interactions) that can accurately and parsimoniously account for observers' behavior in each task. The model will find important application in identifying and interpreting the effects of behavioral manipulations (e.g., cueing attention) or neural perturbations (e.g., stimulation or inactivation) in a variety of multialternative tasks of perception, attention, and decision-making. © 2014 ARVO.

Distinguishing bias from sensitivity effects in multialternative detection tasks

PubMed Central

Sridharan, Devarajan; Steinmetz, Nicholas A.; Moore, Tirin; Knudsen, Eric I.

2014-01-01

Studies investigating the neural bases of cognitive phenomena increasingly employ multialternative detection tasks that seek to measure the ability to detect a target stimulus or changes in some target feature (e.g., orientation or direction of motion) that could occur at one of many locations. In such tasks, it is essential to distinguish the behavioral and neural correlates of enhanced perceptual sensitivity from those of increased bias for a particular location or choice (choice bias). However, making such a distinction is not possible with established approaches. We present a new signal detection model that decouples the behavioral effects of choice bias from those of perceptual sensitivity in multialternative (change) detection tasks. By formulating the perceptual decision in a multidimensional decision space, our model quantifies the respective contributions of bias and sensitivity to multialternative behavioral choices. With a combination of analytical and numerical approaches, we demonstrate an optimal, one-to-one mapping between model parameters and choice probabilities even for tasks involving arbitrarily large numbers of alternatives. We validated the model with published data from two ternary choice experiments: a target-detection experiment and a length-discrimination experiment. The results of this validation provided novel insights into perceptual processes (sensory noise and competitive interactions) that can accurately and parsimoniously account for observers' behavior in each task. The model will find important application in identifying and interpreting the effects of behavioral manipulations (e.g., cueing attention) or neural perturbations (e.g., stimulation or inactivation) in a variety of multialternative tasks of perception, attention, and decision-making. PMID:25146574

Performance of a proportion-based approach to meta-analytic moderator estimation: results from Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Aguirre-Urreta, Miguel I; Ellis, Michael E; Sun, Wenying

2012-03-01

This research investigates the performance of a proportion-based approach to meta-analytic moderator estimation through a series of Monte Carlo simulations. This approach is most useful when the moderating potential of a categorical variable has not been recognized in primary research and thus heterogeneous groups have been pooled together as a single sample. Alternative scenarios representing different distributions of group proportions are examined along with varying numbers of studies, subjects per study, and correlation combinations. Our results suggest that the approach is largely unbiased in its estimation of the magnitude of between-group differences and performs well with regard to statistical power and type I error. In particular, the average percentage bias of the estimated correlation for the reference group is positive and largely negligible, in the 0.5-1.8% range; the average percentage bias of the difference between correlations is also minimal, in the -0.1-1.2% range. Further analysis also suggests both biases decrease as the magnitude of the underlying difference increases, as the number of subjects in each simulated primary study increases, and as the number of simulated studies in each meta-analysis increases. The bias was most evident when the number of subjects and the number of studies were the smallest (80 and 36, respectively). A sensitivity analysis that examines its performance in scenarios down to 12 studies and 40 primary subjects is also included. This research is the first that thoroughly examines the adequacy of the proportion-based approach. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Transcriptome Analysis at the Single-Cell Level Using SMART Technology.

PubMed

Fish, Rachel N; Bostick, Magnolia; Lehman, Alisa; Farmer, Andrew

2016-10-10

RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is a powerful method for analyzing cell state, with minimal bias, and has broad applications within the biological sciences. However, transcriptome analysis of seemingly homogenous cell populations may in fact overlook significant heterogeneity that can be uncovered at the single-cell level. The ultra-low amount of RNA contained in a single cell requires extraordinarily sensitive and reproducible transcriptome analysis methods. As next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies mature, transcriptome profiling by RNA-seq is increasingly being used to decipher the molecular signature of individual cells. This unit describes an ultra-sensitive and reproducible protocol to generate cDNA and sequencing libraries directly from single cells or RNA inputs ranging from 10 pg to 10 ng. Important considerations for working with minute RNA inputs are given. © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of age-related changes in lineup performance.

PubMed

Humphries, Joyce E; Flowe, Heather D

2015-04-01

In the basic face memory literature, support has been found for the late maturation hypothesis, which holds that face recognition ability is not fully developed until at least adolescence. Support for the late maturation hypothesis in the criminal lineup identification literature, however, has been equivocal because of the analytic approach that has been used to examine age-related changes in identification performance. Recently, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied for the first time in the adult eyewitness memory literature to examine whether memory sensitivity differs across different types of lineup tests. ROC analysis allows for the separation of memory sensitivity from response bias in the analysis of recognition data. Here, we have made the first ROC-based comparison of adults' and children's (5- and 6-year-olds and 9- and 10-year-olds) memory performance on lineups by reanalyzing data from Humphries, Holliday, and Flowe (2012). In line with the late maturation hypothesis, memory sensitivity was significantly greater for adults compared with young children. Memory sensitivity for older children was similar to that for adults. The results indicate that the late maturation hypothesis can be generalized to account for age-related performance differences on an eyewitness memory task. The implications for developmental eyewitness memory research are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Relationship Between Preoperative and Primary Care Blood Pressure Among Veterans Presenting from Home for Surgery. Is There Evidence for Anesthesiologist-Initiated Blood Pressure Referral?

PubMed Central

Schonberger, Robert B.; Burg, Matthew M.; Holt, Natalie; Lukens, Carrie L.; Dai, Feng; Brandt, Cynthia

2011-01-01

Background American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines describe the perioperative evaluation as “a unique opportunity to identify patients with hypertension,” however factors such as anticipatory stress or medication noncompliance may induce a bias toward higher blood pressure, leaving clinicians unsure about how to interpret preoperative hypertension. Information describing the relationship between preoperative intake blood pressure and primary care measurements could help anesthesiologists make primary care referrals for improved blood pressure control in an evidence-based fashion. We hypothesized that the preoperative examination provides a useful basis for initiating primary care blood pressure referral. Methods We analyzed retrospective data on 2807 patients who arrived from home for surgery and who were subsequently evaluated within 6 months after surgery in the primary care center of the same institution. After descriptive analysis, we conducted multiple linear regression analysis to identify day-of-surgery (DOS) factors associated with subsequent primary care blood pressure. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of different blood pressure referral thresholds using both a single-measurement and a two-stage screen incorporating recent preoperative and DOS measurements for identifying patients with subsequently elevated primary care blood pressure. Results DOS systolic blood pressure (SBP) was higher than subsequent primary care SBP by a mean bias of 5.5mmHg (95% limits of agreement +43.8 to −32.8). DOS diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was higher than subsequent primary care DBP by a mean bias of 1.5mmHg (95% limits of agreement +13.0 to −10.0). Linear regression of DOS factors explained 19% of the variability in primary care SBP and 29% of the variability in DBP. Accounting for the observed bias, a two-stage SBP referral screen requiring preoperative clinic SBP≥140mmHg and DOS SBP≥146mmHg had 95.9% estimated specificity (95% CI 94.4 to 97.0) for identifying subsequent primary care SBP≥140mmHg and estimated sensitivity of 26.8% (95% CI 22.0 to 32.0). A similarly high specificity using a single DOS SBP required a threshold SBP≥160mmHg, for which estimated specificity was 95.2% (95% CI 94.2 to 96.1). For DBP, a presenting DOS DBP≥92mmHg had 95.7% specificity (95% CI 94.8 to 96.4) for subsequent primary care DBP≥90mmHg with a sensitivity of 18.8% (95% CI 14.4 to 24.0). Conclusion A small bias toward higher DOS blood pressures relative to subsequent primary care measurements was observed. DOS factors predicted only a small proportion of the observed variation. Accounting for the observed bias, a two-stage SBP threshold and a single-reading DBP threshold were highly specific though insensitive for identifying subsequent primary care blood pressure elevation. PMID:22075017

Accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing using cell-free DNA for detection of Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Taylor-Phillips, Sian; Freeman, Karoline; Geppert, Julia; Agbebiyi, Adeola; Uthman, Olalekan A; Madan, Jason; Clarke, Angus; Quenby, Siobhan; Clarke, Aileen

2016-01-01

Objective To measure test accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes using cell-free fetal DNA and identify factors affecting accuracy. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies. Data sources PubMed, Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase and the Cochrane Library published from 1997 to 9 February 2015, followed by weekly autoalerts until 1 April 2015. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies English language journal articles describing case–control studies with ≥15 trisomy cases or cohort studies with ≥50 pregnant women who had been given NIPT and a reference standard. Results 41, 37 and 30 studies of 2012 publications retrieved were included in the review for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes. Quality appraisal identified high risk of bias in included studies, funnel plots showed evidence of publication bias. Pooled sensitivity was 99.3% (95% CI 98.9% to 99.6%) for Down, 97.4% (95.8% to 98.4%) for Edwards, and 97.4% (86.1% to 99.6%) for Patau syndrome. The pooled specificity was 99.9% (99.9% to 100%) for all three trisomies. In 100 000 pregnancies in the general obstetric population we would expect 417, 89 and 40 cases of Downs, Edwards and Patau syndromes to be detected by NIPT, with 94, 154 and 42 false positive results. Sensitivity was lower in twin than singleton pregnancies, reduced by 9% for Down, 28% for Edwards and 22% for Patau syndrome. Pooled sensitivity was also lower in the first trimester of pregnancy, in studies in the general obstetric population, and in cohort studies with consecutive enrolment. Conclusions NIPT using cell-free fetal DNA has very high sensitivity and specificity for Down syndrome, with slightly lower sensitivity for Edwards and Patau syndrome. However, it is not 100% accurate and should not be used as a final diagnosis for positive cases. Trial registration number CRD42014014947. PMID:26781507

Survival Bias When Assessing Risk Factors for Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Tutorial with Application to the Exposure of Smoking.

PubMed

McGuinness, Myra B; Karahalios, Amalia; Kasza, Jessica; Guymer, Robyn H; Finger, Robert P; Simpson, Julie A

2017-08-01

We illustrate the effect of survival bias when investigating risk factors for eye disease in elderly populations for whom death is a competing risk. Our investigation focuses on the relationship between smoking and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in an observational study impacted by censoring due to death. Statistical methodology to calculate the survivor average causal effect (SACE) as a sensitivity analysis is described, including example statistical computing code for Stata and R. To demonstrate this method, we examine the causal effect of smoking history at baseline (1990-1994) on the presence of late AMD at the third study wave (2003-2007) using data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Of the 40,506 participants eligible for inclusion, 38,092 (94%) survived until the start of the third study wave, 20,752 (51%) were graded for AMD (60% female, aged 47-85 years, mean 65 ± 8.7 years). Late AMD was detected in 122 participants. Logistic regression showed strong evidence of an increased risk of late AMD for current smokers compared to non-smokers (adjusted naïve odds ratio 2.99, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.74-5.13). Among participants expected to be alive at the start of follow-up regardless of their smoking status, the estimated SACE odds ratio comparing current smokers to non-smokers was at least 3.42 (95% CI 1.57-5.15). Survival bias can attenuate associations between harmful exposures and diseases of aging. Estimation of the SACE using a sensitivity analysis approach should be considered when conducting epidemiological research within elderly populations.

Small Sample Sizes Yield Biased Allometric Equations in Temperate Forests

PubMed Central

Duncanson, L.; Rourke, O.; Dubayah, R.

2015-01-01

Accurate quantification of forest carbon stocks is required for constraining the global carbon cycle and its impacts on climate. The accuracies of forest biomass maps are inherently dependent on the accuracy of the field biomass estimates used to calibrate models, which are generated with allometric equations. Here, we provide a quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of allometric parameters to sample size in temperate forests, focusing on the allometric relationship between tree height and crown radius. We use LiDAR remote sensing to isolate between 10,000 to more than 1,000,000 tree height and crown radius measurements per site in six U.S. forests. We find that fitted allometric parameters are highly sensitive to sample size, producing systematic overestimates of height. We extend our analysis to biomass through the application of empirical relationships from the literature, and show that given the small sample sizes used in common allometric equations for biomass, the average site-level biomass bias is ~+70% with a standard deviation of 71%, ranging from −4% to +193%. These findings underscore the importance of increasing the sample sizes used for allometric equation generation. PMID:26598233

Selective effects of 5-HT2C receptor modulation on performance of a novel valence-probe visual discrimination task and probabilistic reversal learning in mice.

PubMed

Phillips, Benjamin U; Dewan, Sigma; Nilsson, Simon R O; Robbins, Trevor W; Heath, Christopher J; Saksida, Lisa M; Bussey, Timothy J; Alsiö, Johan

2018-04-22

Dysregulation of the serotonin (5-HT) system is a pathophysiological component in major depressive disorder (MDD), a condition closely associated with abnormal emotional responsivity to positive and negative feedback. However, the precise mechanism through which 5-HT tone biases feedback responsivity remains unclear. 5-HT2C receptors (5-HT2CRs) are closely linked with aspects of depressive symptomatology, including abnormalities in reinforcement processes and response to stress. Thus, we aimed to determine the impact of 5-HT2CR function on response to feedback in biased reinforcement learning. We used two touchscreen assays designed to assess the impact of positive and negative feedback on probabilistic reinforcement in mice, including a novel valence-probe visual discrimination (VPVD) and a probabilistic reversal learning procedure (PRL). Systemic administration of a 5-HT2CR agonist and antagonist resulted in selective changes in the balance of feedback sensitivity bias on these tasks. Specifically, on VPVD, SB 242084, the 5-HT2CR antagonist, impaired acquisition of a discrimination dependent on appropriate integration of positive and negative feedback. On PRL, SB 242084 at 1 mg/kg resulted in changes in behaviour consistent with reduced sensitivity to positive feedback. In contrast, WAY 163909, the 5-HT2CR agonist, resulted in changes associated with increased sensitivity to positive feedback and decreased sensitivity to negative feedback. These results suggest that 5-HT2CRs tightly regulate feedback sensitivity bias in mice with consequent effects on learning and cognitive flexibility and specify a framework for the influence of 5-HT2CRs on sensitivity to reinforcement.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Process Identification under Model Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Dai, H.; Walker, A. P.; Shi, L.; Yang, J.

2015-12-01

The environmental system consists of various physical, chemical, and biological processes, and environmental models are always built to simulate these processes and their interactions. For model building, improvement, and validation, it is necessary to identify important processes so that limited resources can be used to better characterize the processes. While global sensitivity analysis has been widely used to identify important processes, the process identification is always based on deterministic process conceptualization that uses a single model for representing a process. However, environmental systems are complex, and it happens often that a single process may be simulated by multiple alternative models. Ignoring the model uncertainty in process identification may lead to biased identification in that identified important processes may not be so in the real world. This study addresses this problem by developing a new method of global sensitivity analysis for process identification. The new method is based on the concept of Sobol sensitivity analysis and model averaging. Similar to the Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters, our new method evaluates variance change when a process is fixed at its different conceptualizations. The variance considers both parametric and model uncertainty using the method of model averaging. The method is demonstrated using a synthetic study of groundwater modeling that considers recharge process and parameterization process. Each process has two alternative models. Important processes of groundwater flow and transport are evaluated using our new method. The method is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

Data challenges in estimating the capacity value of solar photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gami, Dhruv; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothedmore » out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Lastly, our analysis also suggests that multiple years’ historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.« less

Data Challenges in Estimating the Capacity Value of Solar Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gami, Dhruv; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothedmore » out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Our analysis also suggests that multiple years' historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.« less

Data challenges in estimating the capacity value of solar photovoltaics

DOE PAGES

Gami, Dhruv; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

2017-04-30

We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothedmore » out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Lastly, our analysis also suggests that multiple years’ historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Namikawa, Toshiya

We present here a new method for delensing B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using a lensing potential reconstructed from the same realization of the CMB polarization (CMB internal delensing). The B -mode delensing is required to improve sensitivity to primary B modes generated by, e.g., the inflationary gravitational waves, axionlike particles, modified gravity, primordial magnetic fields, and topological defects such as cosmic strings. However, the CMB internal delensing suffers from substantial biases due to correlations between observed CMB maps to be delensed and that used for reconstructing a lensing potential. Since the bias depends on realizations, wemore » construct a realization-dependent (RD) estimator for correcting these biases by deriving a general optimal estimator for higher-order correlations. The RD method is less sensitive to simulation uncertainties. Compared to the previous ℓ -splitting method, we find that the RD method corrects the biases without substantial degradation of the delensing efficiency.« less

Assessing operating characteristics of CAD algorithms in the absence of a gold standard

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roy Choudhury, Kingshuk; Paik, David S.; Yi, Chin A.

2010-04-15

Purpose: The authors examine potential bias when using a reference reader panel as ''gold standard'' for estimating operating characteristics of CAD algorithms for detecting lesions. As an alternative, the authors propose latent class analysis (LCA), which does not require an external gold standard to evaluate diagnostic accuracy. Methods: A binomial model for multiple reader detections using different diagnostic protocols was constructed, assuming conditional independence of readings given true lesion status. Operating characteristics of all protocols were estimated by maximum likelihood LCA. Reader panel and LCA based estimates were compared using data simulated from the binomial model for a range ofmore » operating characteristics. LCA was applied to 36 thin section thoracic computed tomography data sets from the Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC): Free search markings of four radiologists were compared to markings from four different CAD assisted radiologists. For real data, bootstrap-based resampling methods, which accommodate dependence in reader detections, are proposed to test of hypotheses of differences between detection protocols. Results: In simulation studies, reader panel based sensitivity estimates had an average relative bias (ARB) of -23% to -27%, significantly higher (p-value <0.0001) than LCA (ARB -2% to -6%). Specificity was well estimated by both reader panel (ARB -0.6% to -0.5%) and LCA (ARB 1.4%-0.5%). Among 1145 lesion candidates LIDC considered, LCA estimated sensitivity of reference readers (55%) was significantly lower (p-value 0.006) than CAD assisted readers' (68%). Average false positives per patient for reference readers (0.95) was not significantly lower (p-value 0.28) than CAD assisted readers' (1.27). Conclusions: Whereas a gold standard based on a consensus of readers may substantially bias sensitivity estimates, LCA may be a significantly more accurate and consistent means for evaluating diagnostic accuracy.« less

Affective state influences perception by affecting decision parameters underlying bias and sensitivity.

PubMed

Lynn, Spencer K; Zhang, Xuan; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2012-08-01

Studies of the effect of affect on perception often show consistent directional effects of a person's affective state on perception. Unpleasant emotions have been associated with a "locally focused" style of stimulus evaluation, and positive emotions with a "globally focused" style. Typically, however, studies of affect and perception have not been conducted under the conditions of perceptual uncertainty and behavioral risk inherent to perceptual judgments outside the laboratory. We investigated the influence of perceivers' experienced affect (valence and arousal) on the utility of social threat perception by combining signal detection theory and behavioral economics. We compared 3 perceptual decision environments that systematically differed with respect to factors that underlie uncertainty and risk: the base rate of threat, the costs of incorrect identification threat, and the perceptual similarity of threats and nonthreats. We found that no single affective state yielded the best performance on the threat perception task across the 3 environments. Unpleasant valence promoted calibration of response bias to base rate and costs, high arousal promoted calibration of perceptual sensitivity to perceptual similarity, and low arousal was associated with an optimal adjustment of bias to sensitivity. However, the strength of these associations was conditional upon the difficulty of attaining optimal bias and high sensitivity, such that the effect of the perceiver's affective state on perception differed with the cause and/or level of uncertainty and risk.

Affective State Influences Perception by Affecting Decision Parameters Underlying Bias and Sensitivity

PubMed Central

Lynn, Spencer K.; Zhang, Xuan; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2012-01-01

Studies of the effect of affect on perception often show consistent directional effects of a person’s affective state on perception. Unpleasant emotions have been associated with a “locally focused” style of stimulus evaluation, and positive emotions with a “globally focused” style. Typically, however, studies of affect and perception have not been conducted under the conditions of perceptual uncertainty and behavioral risk inherent to perceptual judgments outside the laboratory. We investigated the influence of perceivers’ experience affect (valence and arousal) on the utility of social threat perception by combining signal detection theory and behavioral economics. We created three perceptual decision environments that systematically differed with respect to factors that underlie uncertainty and risk: the base rate of threat, the costs of incorrect identification threat, and the perceptual similarity of threats and non-threats. We found that no single affective state yielded the best performance on the threat perception task across the three environments. Unpleasant valence promoted calibration of response bias to base rate and costs, high arousal promoted calibration of perceptual sensitivity to perceptual similarity, and low arousal was associated with an optimal adjustment of bias to sensitivity. However, the strength of these associations was conditional upon the difficulty of attaining optimal bias and high sensitivity, such that the effect of the perceiver’s affective state on perception differed with the cause and/or level of uncertainty and risk. PMID:22251054

Effects of imperfect test sensitivity and specificity on observational studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

PubMed

Jackson, Michael L; Rothman, Kenneth J

2015-03-10

The recently developed test-negative design is now standard for observational studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). It is unclear how influenza test misclassification biases test-negative VE estimates relative to VE estimates from traditional cohort or case-control studies. We simulated populations whose members may develop acute respiratory illness (ARI) due to influenza and to non-influenza pathogens. In these simulations, vaccination reduces the risk of influenza but not of non-influenza ARI. Influenza test sensitivity and specificity, risks of influenza and non-influenza ARI, and VE were varied across the simulations. In each simulation, we estimated influenza VE using a cohort design, a case-control design, and a test-negative design. In the absence of influenza test misclassification, all three designs accurately estimated influenza VE. In the presence of misclassification, all three designs underestimated VE. Bias in VE estimates was slightly greater in the test-negative design than in cohort or case-control designs. Assuming the use of highly sensitive and specific reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction tests for influenza, bias in the test-negative studies was trivial across a wide range of realistic values for VE. Although influenza test misclassification causes more bias in test-negative studies than in traditional cohort or case-control studies, the difference is trivial for realistic combinations of attack rates, test sensitivity/specificity, and VE. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SCALE 6.2 Continuous-Energy TSUNAMI-3D Capabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perfetti, Christopher M; Rearden, Bradley T

2015-01-01

The TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation) capabilities within the SCALE code system make use of sensitivity coefficients for an extensive number of criticality safety applications, such as quantifying the data-induced uncertainty in the eigenvalue of critical systems, assessing the neutronic similarity between different systems, quantifying computational biases, and guiding nuclear data adjustment studies. The need to model geometrically complex systems with improved ease of use and fidelity and the desire to extend TSUNAMI analysis to advanced applications have motivated the development of a SCALE 6.2 module for calculating sensitivity coefficients using three-dimensional (3D) continuous-energy (CE) Montemore » Carlo methods: CE TSUNAMI-3D. This paper provides an overview of the theory, implementation, and capabilities of the CE TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity analysis methods. CE TSUNAMI contains two methods for calculating sensitivity coefficients in eigenvalue sensitivity applications: (1) the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method and (2) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Track length importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method. This work also presents the GEneralized Adjoint Response in Monte Carlo method (GEAR-MC), a first-of-its-kind approach for calculating adjoint-weighted, generalized response sensitivity coefficients—such as flux responses or reaction rate ratios—in CE Monte Carlo applications. The accuracy and efficiency of the CE TSUNAMI-3D eigenvalue sensitivity methods are assessed from a user perspective in a companion publication, and the accuracy and features of the CE TSUNAMI-3D GEAR-MC methods are detailed in this paper.« less

Partial verification bias and incorporation bias affected accuracy estimates of diagnostic studies for biomarkers that were part of an existing composite gold standard.

PubMed

Karch, Annika; Koch, Armin; Zapf, Antonia; Zerr, Inga; Karch, André

2016-10-01

To investigate how choice of gold standard biases estimates of sensitivity and specificity in studies reassessing the diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers that are already part of a lifetime composite gold standard (CGS). We performed a simulation study based on the real-life example of the biomarker "protein 14-3-3" used for diagnosing Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Three different types of gold standard were compared: perfect gold standard "autopsy" (available in a small fraction only; prone to partial verification bias), lifetime CGS (including the biomarker under investigation; prone to incorporation bias), and "best available" gold standard (autopsy if available, otherwise CGS). Sensitivity was unbiased when comparing 14-3-3 with autopsy but overestimated when using CGS or "best available" gold standard. Specificity of 14-3-3 was underestimated in scenarios comparing 14-3-3 with autopsy (up to 24%). In contrast, overestimation (up to 20%) was observed for specificity compared with CGS; this could be reduced to 0-10% when using the "best available" gold standard. Choice of gold standard affects considerably estimates of diagnostic accuracy. Using the "best available" gold standard (autopsy where available, otherwise CGS) leads to valid estimates of specificity, whereas sensitivity is estimated best when tested against autopsy alone. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attentional Bias for Reward and Punishment in Overweight and Obesity: The TRAILS Study.

PubMed

Jonker, Nienke C; Glashouwer, Klaske A; Ostafin, Brian D; van Hemel-Ruiter, Madelon E; Smink, Frédérique R E; Hoek, Hans W; de Jong, Peter J

2016-01-01

More than 80% of obese adolescents will become obese adults, and it is therefore important to enhance insight into characteristics that underlie the development and maintenance of overweight and obesity at a young age. The current study is the first to focus on attentional biases towards rewarding and punishing cues as potentially important factors. Participants were young adolescents (N = 607) who were followed from the age of 13 until the age of 19, and completed a motivational game indexing the attentional bias to general cues of reward and punishment. Additionally, self-reported reward and punishment sensitivity was measured. This study showed that attentional biases to cues that signal reward or punishment and self-reported reward and punishment sensitivity were not related to body mass index or the change in body mass index over six years in adolescents. Thus, attentional bias to cues of reward and cues of punishment, and self-reported reward and punishment sensitivity, do not seem to be crucial factors in the development and maintenance of overweight and obesity in adolescents. Exploratory analyses of the current study suggest that the amount of effort to gain reward and to avoid punishment may play a role in the development and maintenance of overweight and obesity. However, since the effort measure was a construct based on face validity and has not been properly validated, more studies are necessary before firm conclusions can be drawn.

Perceptual sensitivity to spectral properties of earlier sounds during speech categorization.

PubMed

Stilp, Christian E; Assgari, Ashley A

2018-02-28

Speech perception is heavily influenced by surrounding sounds. When spectral properties differ between earlier (context) and later (target) sounds, this can produce spectral contrast effects (SCEs) that bias perception of later sounds. For example, when context sounds have more energy in low-F 1 frequency regions, listeners report more high-F 1 responses to a target vowel, and vice versa. SCEs have been reported using various approaches for a wide range of stimuli, but most often, large spectral peaks were added to the context to bias speech categorization. This obscures the lower limit of perceptual sensitivity to spectral properties of earlier sounds, i.e., when SCEs begin to bias speech categorization. Listeners categorized vowels (/ɪ/-/ɛ/, Experiment 1) or consonants (/d/-/g/, Experiment 2) following a context sentence with little spectral amplification (+1 to +4 dB) in frequency regions known to produce SCEs. In both experiments, +3 and +4 dB amplification in key frequency regions of the context produced SCEs, but lesser amplification was insufficient to bias performance. This establishes a lower limit of perceptual sensitivity where spectral differences across sounds can bias subsequent speech categorization. These results are consistent with proposed adaptation-based mechanisms that potentially underlie SCEs in auditory perception. Recent sounds can change what speech sounds we hear later. This can occur when the average frequency composition of earlier sounds differs from that of later sounds, biasing how they are perceived. These "spectral contrast effects" are widely observed when sounds' frequency compositions differ substantially. We reveal the lower limit of these effects, as +3 dB amplification of key frequency regions in earlier sounds was enough to bias categorization of the following vowel or consonant sound. Speech categorization being biased by very small spectral differences across sounds suggests that spectral contrast effects occur frequently in everyday speech perception.

Statins in adult patients with HIV: Protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Roever, Leonardo; Resende, Elmiro Santos; Diniz, Angélica Lemos Debs; Penha-Silva, Nilson; O'Connell, João Lucas; Gomes, Paulo Fernando Silva; Zanetti, Hugo Ribeiro; Roerver-Borges, Anaisa Silva; Veloso, Fernando César; Fidale, Thiago Montes; Casella-Filho, Antonio; Dourado, Paulo Magno Martins; Chagas, Antonio Carlos Palandri; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Reis, Paulo Eduardo Ocke; Pinto, Rogério de Melo; Oliveira, Gustavo B F; Avezum, Álvaro; Neto, Mansueto; Durães, André; Silva, Rose Mary Ferreira Lisboa da; Grande, Antonio José; Denardi, Celise; Lopes, Renato Delascio; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Alizadeh, Shahab; Hernandez, Adrian V; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

Patients with HIV have been found to suffer from lipid abnormalities, including elevated levels of total and LDL-cholesterol as well as triglyceride levels. Abnormal lipid levels are associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, which are significant causes of mortality among the general population. Therefore, the objective of the current study is to conduct a systematic review with network meta-analysis to compare the effects of statins classes on HIV patients. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational studies published in English up to 31 December 2017, and which include direct and/or indirect evidence, will be included. Studies will be retrieved by searching four electronic databases and cross-referencing. Dual selection and abstraction of data will occur. The primary outcome will all-cause mortality, new event of acute myocardial infarction, stroke (hemorrhagic and ischemic), hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome and urgent revascularization procedures and cardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes will be assessment of the differences in change of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), high density lipoprotein (HDL-C). Risk of bias will be assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias assessment instrument for RCTs and the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology instrument for observational studies. Network meta-analysis will be performed using multivariate random-effects meta-regression models. The surface under the cumulative ranking curve will be used to provide a hierarchy of statins that reduce cardiovascular mortality in HIV patients. A revised version of the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool (RoB 2.0) will be used to assess the risk of bias in eligible RCTs. Results will be synthesized and analyzed using network meta-analysis (NMA). Overall strength of the evidence and publication bias will be evaluated. Subgroup and sensitivity analysis will also be performed. Ethics approval was not required for this study because it was based on published studies. The results and findings of this study will be submitted and published in a scientific peer-reviewed journal. The evidence will determine which combination of interventions are most promising for current practice and further investigation. PROSPERO (CRD42017072996).

Bias Field Inconsistency Correction of Motion-Scattered Multislice MRI for Improved 3D Image Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Kim, Kio; Habas, Piotr A.; Rajagopalan, Vidya; Scott, Julia A.; Corbett-Detig, James M.; Rousseau, Francois; Barkovich, A. James; Glenn, Orit A.; Studholme, Colin

2012-01-01

A common solution to clinical MR imaging in the presence of large anatomical motion is to use fast multi-slice 2D studies to reduce slice acquisition time and provide clinically usable slice data. Recently, techniques have been developed which retrospectively correct large scale 3D motion between individual slices allowing the formation of a geometrically correct 3D volume from the multiple slice stacks. One challenge, however, in the final reconstruction process is the possibility of varying intensity bias in the slice data, typically due to the motion of the anatomy relative to imaging coils. As a result, slices which cover the same region of anatomy at different times may exhibit different sensitivity. This bias field inconsistency can induce artifacts in the final 3D reconstruction that can impact both clinical interpretation of key tissue boundaries and the automated analysis of the data. Here we describe a framework to estimate and correct the bias field inconsistency in each slice collectively across all motion corrupted image slices. Experiments using synthetic and clinical data show that the proposed method reduces intensity variability in tissues and improves the distinction between key tissue types. PMID:21511561

Bias field inconsistency correction of motion-scattered multislice MRI for improved 3D image reconstruction.

PubMed

Kim, Kio; Habas, Piotr A; Rajagopalan, Vidya; Scott, Julia A; Corbett-Detig, James M; Rousseau, Francois; Barkovich, A James; Glenn, Orit A; Studholme, Colin

2011-09-01

A common solution to clinical MR imaging in the presence of large anatomical motion is to use fast multislice 2D studies to reduce slice acquisition time and provide clinically usable slice data. Recently, techniques have been developed which retrospectively correct large scale 3D motion between individual slices allowing the formation of a geometrically correct 3D volume from the multiple slice stacks. One challenge, however, in the final reconstruction process is the possibility of varying intensity bias in the slice data, typically due to the motion of the anatomy relative to imaging coils. As a result, slices which cover the same region of anatomy at different times may exhibit different sensitivity. This bias field inconsistency can induce artifacts in the final 3D reconstruction that can impact both clinical interpretation of key tissue boundaries and the automated analysis of the data. Here we describe a framework to estimate and correct the bias field inconsistency in each slice collectively across all motion corrupted image slices. Experiments using synthetic and clinical data show that the proposed method reduces intensity variability in tissues and improves the distinction between key tissue types.

Noninvasive methods for haemoglobin screening in prospective blood donors.

PubMed

Belardinelli, A; Benni, M; Tazzari, P L; Pagliaro, P

2013-08-01

The haemoglobin level of prospective blood donors is usually performed on blood obtained by from the finger pulp by fingerstick with a lancet and filling a capillary tube with a sample. New noninvasive methods are now available for rapid, noninvasive predonation haemoglobin screening. Prospective blood donors at our blood centre were tested, in two different trials, as follows: by the NBM 200 (OrSense) test (n = 445 donors) and by the Pronto-7 (Masimo) test (n = 463 donors). The haemoglobin values of each trial and the haemoglobin of finger pulp blood obtained by fingerstick with a lancet (HemoCue) were compared with the haemoglobin values obtained from a venous sample on a Cell Counter (Beckman Coulter). Comparison of Beckman Coulter Cell Counter and OrSense and results showed a bias of 0.29 g/dl, the standard deviation of the differences (SDD) of 0.98 and 95% limits of agreement from -1.64 to 2.21, using Bland and Altman statistical methodology. Comparison of Masimo and Beckman Coulter Cell Counter results showed a bias of -0.53 g/dl, SDD of 1.04 and 95% limits of agreement from -2.57 to 1.51. Cumulative analysis of all 908 donors, as tested by the usual fingerstick test showed a bias of 0.83 g/dl, SDD of 0.70 and 95% limits of agreement from -0.54 to 2.20 compared with the Coulter Cell Counter. Compared with the Coulter Counter, the specificity of the methods was 99.5% for fingerstick, 97% for OrSense and 83% for Massimo, and the sensitivity was 99, 98 and 93%, respectively. Analysis of finger pulp blood by either direct sampling by fingerstick and Hemocue, or by noninvasive haemoglobin tests does not replicate the results of cell counter analysis of venous samples. Compared with fingerstick, noninvasive haemoglobin tests eliminate pain and reduce stress, but have a lower level of specificity and sensitivity. © 2013 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Modeling regulated water utility investment incentives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padula, S.; Harou, J. J.

2014-12-01

This work attempts to model the infrastructure investment choices of privatized water utilities subject to rate of return and price cap regulation. The goal is to understand how regulation influences water companies' investment decisions such as their desire to engage in transfers with neighbouring companies. We formulate a profit maximization capacity expansion model that finds the schedule of new supply, demand management and transfer schemes that maintain the annual supply-demand balance and maximize a companies' profit under the 2010-15 price control process in England. Regulatory incentives for costs savings are also represented in the model. These include: the CIS scheme for the capital expenditure (capex) and incentive allowance schemes for the operating expenditure (opex) . The profit-maximizing investment program (what to build, when and what size) is compared with the least cost program (social optimum). We apply this formulation to several water companies in South East England to model performance and sensitivity to water network particulars. Results show that if companies' are able to outperform the regulatory assumption on the cost of capital, a capital bias can be generated, due to the fact that the capital expenditure, contrarily to opex, can be remunerated through the companies' regulatory capital value (RCV). The occurrence of the 'capital bias' or its entity depends on the extent to which a company can finance its investments at a rate below the allowed cost of capital. The bias can be reduced by the regulatory penalties for underperformances on the capital expenditure (CIS scheme); Sensitivity analysis can be applied by varying the CIS penalty to see how and to which extent this impacts the capital bias effect. We show how regulatory changes could potentially be devised to partially remove the 'capital bias' effect. Solutions potentially include allowing for incentives on total expenditure rather than separately for capex and opex and allowing both opex and capex to be remunerated through a return on the company's regulatory capital value.

Bilingualism delays age at onset of dementia, independent of education and immigration status.

PubMed

Mortimer, James A

2014-05-27

Editors' Note: Mortimer argues that important confounding variables may have biased the conclusion by Alladi et al. on the role of bilingualism in delaying the onset of dementia. Following Mortimer’s comments, Alladi et al. conducted additional analysis of their data to support their conclusion. The attitude of "close enough" is not appropriate when determining brain death. Stadlan comments and supports Frank’s call for action regarding this sensitive issue.

High sensitivity zero-biased magnetic field sensor based on multiphase laminate heterostructures with FeCuNbSiB nanocrystalline soft magnetic alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Jing; Wen, Yumei; Li, Ping; Chen, Hengjia

2016-05-01

In this paper, a high sensitivity zero-biased magnetic field sensor based on multiphase laminate heterostructures consisting of FeCuNbSiB/Terfenol-D (Tb1-xDyxFe2)/PZT (Pb(Zr1-x,Tix)O3)/Terfenol-D/PZT/Ternol-D/FeCuNbSiB (FMPMPMF) is presented, whose ME coupling characteristics and sensing performances have been investigated. Compared to traditional Terfenol-D/PZT/Terfenol-D (MPM) and Terfenol-D/PZT/Terfenol-D/PZT/Terfenol-D (MPMPM) sensors, the zero-biased ME coupling characteristics of FMPMPMF sensor were significantly improved, owing to a build-in magnetic field in FeCuNbSiB/Terfenol-D layers. The optimum zero-biased resonant ME voltage coefficient of 3.02 V/Oe is achieved, which is 1.65 times as great as that of MPMPM and 2.51 times of MPM sensors. The mean value of low-frequency ME field coefficient of FMPMPMF reaches 122.53 mV/cm Oe, which is 2.39 times as great as that of MPMPM and 1.79 times of MPM sensors. Meanwhile, the induced zero-biased ME voltage of FMPMPMF sensor shows an excellent linear relationship to ac magnetic field both at the low frequency (1 kHz) and the resonant frequency (106.6 kHz). Remarkably, it indicates that the proposed zero-biased magnetic field sensor give the prospect of being able to applied to the field of highly sensitive ac magnetic field sensing.

Study of material properties important for an optical property modulation-based radiation detection method for positron emission tomography.

PubMed

Tao, Li; Daghighian, Henry M; Levin, Craig S

2017-01-01

We compare the performance of two detector materials, cadmium telluride (CdTe) and bismuth silicon oxide (BSO), for optical property modulation-based radiation detection method for positron emission tomography (PET), which is a potential new direction to dramatically improve the annihilation photon pair coincidence time resolution. We have shown that the induced current flow in the detector crystal resulting from ionizing radiation determines the strength of optical modulation signal. A larger resistivity is favorable for reducing the dark current (noise) in the detector crystal, and thus the higher resistivity BSO crystal has a lower (50% lower on average) noise level than CdTe. The CdTe and BSO crystals can achieve the same sensitivity under laser diode illumination at the same crystal bias voltage condition while the BSO crystal is not as sensitive to 511-keV photons as the CdTe crystal under the same crystal bias voltage. The amplitude of the modulation signal induced by 511-keV photons in BSO crystal is around 30% of that induced in CdTe crystal under the same bias condition. In addition, we have found that the optical modulation strength increases linearly with crystal bias voltage before saturation. The modulation signal with CdTe tends to saturate at bias voltages higher than 1500 V due to its lower resistivity (thus larger dark current) while the modulation signal strength with BSO still increases after 3500 V. Further increasing the bias voltage for BSO could potentially further enhance the modulation strength and thus, the sensitivity.

Role of non-contrast balanced steady-state free precession megnetic resonance angiography compared to contrast-enhanced megnetic resonance angiography in diagnosing renal artery stenosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tao, Weijing; Shen, Yang; Guo, Lili; Bo, Genji

2014-01-01

Balanced steady-state free precession MR angiography (b-SSFP MRA) has shown great promise in diagnosing renal artery stenosis (RAS) as a non-contrast MR angiography (NC-MRA) method. However, results from related studies are inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to assess the accuracy of b-SSFP MRA compared to contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) in diagnosing RAS. English and Chinese studies that were published prior to September 4, 2013 and that assessed b-SSFP MRA diagnostic performance in RAS patients were reviewed. Quality of the literature was assessed independently by two observers. The statistical analysis was adopted by the software of Meta-Disc version 1.4. Using the heterogeneity test, a statistical effect model was chosen to calculate different pooled weighted values. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) space and Spearman correlation coefficient were to explore threshold effect. Sensitivity analysis and the publication bias were performed to demonstrate if the pooled estimates were stable and reliable. We produced forest plots to calculate the pooled values and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and constructed a summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) to calculate the area under the curve (AUC). A total of 10 high quality articles were used in this meta-analysis. The studies showed a high degree of heterogeneity. The "shoulder-arm" shape in the ROC plot and the Spearman correlation coefficient between the log(SEN) and log(1-SPE) suggested that there was a threshold effect. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the actual combined effect size was equal to the theoretical combined effect size. The publication bias was low after quality evaluation of the literature and the construction of a funnel plot. The pooled sensitivity was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91) and pooled specificity was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93-0.95); pooled PLR was 14.57 (95% CI, 9.78-21.71]) and pooled NLR was 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.20). The AUC was 0.964 3. In contrast to CE-MRA, the b-SSFP MRA is more accurate in diagnosing RAS, and may be able to replace other diagnostic methods in patients with renal insufficiency.

Chirp-aided power fading mitigation for upstream 100 km full-range long reach PON with DBR DML

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kuo; He, Hao; Xin, Haiyun; Hu, Weisheng; Liang, Song; Lu, Dan; Zhao, Lingjuan

2018-01-01

The DML is a promising option for cost-sensitive ONUs in optical access networks, but suffers from severe power fading due to dispersion and chirp. In this work, we investigate to mitigate the power fading by optimizing the chirp. Theoretical analysis indicates, a see-saw effect, influenced by the bias, exists between the adiabatic notch-induced fading (A-fading) and the transient notch-induced fading (T-fading). High bias can mitigate T-fading, but causes large A-fading. Low bias can avoid A-fading, but cannot completely mitigate T-fading. For each transmission distance, balance should be achieved to favor transmission. The ∼20 km short distance requires high bias to obtain large adiabatic chirp to counteract the T-fading, while the ∼100 km long distance requires relatively low bias to avoid the A-fading. With this power fading mitigation technique, we conduct upstream transmission experiment of LR-PON. Experiments show that, although signal contamination is inevitable, clear ;1; and ;0; are obtained with this power fading mitigation scheme for any 0 ∼100 km distance with 10 Gb/s OOK signal and DBR DML. The optical power budget penalty induced by 0 ∼100 km fiber is limited within only 2.2 dB, with optimum bias for each distance. More than 10 and 15 dB improvement is achieved when BER is 10-3 and 10-6. A method is also proposed to automatically obtain optimum bias from the ranging procedure of PON protocol.

What we don't know can hurt us: Nonresponse bias assessment in birth defects research.

PubMed

Strassle, Paula D; Cassell, Cynthia H; Shapira, Stuart K; Tinker, Sarah C; Meyer, Robert E; Grosse, Scott D

2015-07-01

Nonresponse bias assessment is an important and underutilized tool in survey research to assess potential bias due to incomplete participation. This study illustrates a nonresponse bias sensitivity assessment using a survey on perceived barriers to care for children with orofacial clefts in North Carolina. Children born in North Carolina between 2001 and 2004 with an orofacial cleft were eligible for inclusion. Vital statistics data, including maternal and child characteristics, were available on all eligible subjects. Missing 'responses' from nonparticipants were imputed using assumptions based on the distribution of responses, survey method (mail or phone), and participant maternal demographics. Overall, 245 of 475 subjects (51.6%) responded to either a mail or phone survey. Cost as a barrier to care was reported by 25.0% of participants. When stratified by survey type, 28.3% of mail respondents and 17.2% of phone respondents reported cost as a barrier. Under various assumptions, the bias-adjusted estimated prevalence of cost as barrier to care ranged from 16.1% to 30.0%. Maternal age, education, race, and marital status at time of birth were not associated with subjects reporting cost as a barrier. As survey response rates continue to decline, the importance of assessing the potential impact of nonresponse bias has become more critical. Birth defects research is particularly conducive to nonresponse bias analysis, especially when birth defect registries and birth certificate records are used. Future birth defect studies which use population-based surveillance data and have incomplete participation could benefit from this type of nonresponse bias assessment. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 103:603-609, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Information bias in health research: definition, pitfalls, and adjustment methods

PubMed Central

Althubaiti, Alaa

2016-01-01

As with other fields, medical sciences are subject to different sources of bias. While understanding sources of bias is a key element for drawing valid conclusions, bias in health research continues to be a very sensitive issue that can affect the focus and outcome of investigations. Information bias, otherwise known as misclassification, is one of the most common sources of bias that affects the validity of health research. It originates from the approach that is utilized to obtain or confirm study measurements. This paper seeks to raise awareness of information bias in observational and experimental research study designs as well as to enrich discussions concerning bias problems. Specifying the types of bias can be essential to limit its effects and, the use of adjustment methods might serve to improve clinical evaluation and health care practice. PMID:27217764

Systematic review with meta-analysis: the effects of rifaximin in hepatic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Kimer, N; Krag, A; Møller, S; Bendtsen, F; Gluud, L L

2014-07-01

Rifaximin is recommended for prevention of hepatic encephalopathy (HE). The effects of rifaximin on overt and minimal HE are debated. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on rifaximin for HE. We performed electronic and manual searches, gathered information from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Home Page, and obtained unpublished information on trial design and outcome measures from authors and pharmaceutical companies. Meta-analyses were performed and results presented as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the number needed to treat. Subgroup, sensitivity, regression and sequential analyses were performed to evaluate the risk of bias and sources of heterogeneity. We included 19 RCTs with 1370 patients. Outcomes were recalculated based on unpublished information of 11 trials. Overall, rifaximin had a beneficial effect on secondary prevention of HE (RR: 1.32; 95% CI 1.06-1.65), but not in a sensitivity analysis on rifaximin after TIPSS (RR: 1.27; 95% CI 1.00-1.53). Rifaximin increased the proportion of patients who recovered from HE (RR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.46-0.76) and reduced mortality (RR: 0.68, 95% CI 0.48-0.97). The results were robust to adjustments for bias control. No small study effects were identified. The sequential analyses only confirmed the results of the analysis on HE recovery. Rifaximin has a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy and may reduce mortality. The combined evidence suggests that rifaximin may be considered in the evidence-based management of hepatic encephalopathy. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human papillomavirus infection and the malignant transformation of sinonasal inverted papilloma: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Ren-Wu; Guo, Zhi-Qiang; Zhang, Ru-Xin

2016-06-01

A growing number of molecular epidemiological studies have been conducted to evaluate the association between human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and the malignancy of sinonasal inverted papilloma (SNIP). However, the results remain inconclusive. Here, a meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess this association. Case-control studies investigating SNIP tissues for presence of HPV DNA were identified. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by the Mantel-Haenszel method. An assessment of publication bias and sensitivity analysis were also performed. We calculated a pooled OR of 2.16 (95% CI=1.46-3.21, P<0.001) without statistically significant heterogeneity or publication bias. Stratification by HPV type showed a stronger association for patients with high-risk HPV (hrHPV) types, HPV-16, HPV-18, and HPV-16/18 infection (OR=8.8 [95% CI: 4.73-16.38], 8.04 [95% CI: 3.34-19.39], 18.57 [95% CI: 4.56-75.70], and 26.24 [4.35-158.47], respectively). When only using PCR studies, pooled ORs for patients with hrHPV, HPV-16, and HPV18 infection still reached statistical significance. However, Egger's test reflected significant publication bias in the HPV-16 sub-analysis (P=0.06), and the adjusted OR was no longer statistically significant (OR=1.65, 95%CI: 0.58-4.63). These results suggest that HPV infection, especially hrHPV (HPV-18), is significantly associated with malignant SNIP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relative impact of baryons and cluster shape on weak lensing mass estimates of galaxy clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, B. E.; Le Brun, A. M. C.; Haq, M. E.; Deering, N. J.; King, L. J.; Applegate, D.; McCarthy, I. G.

2018-05-01

Weak gravitational lensing depends on the integrated mass along the line of sight. Baryons contribute to the mass distribution of galaxy clusters and the resulting mass estimates from lensing analysis. We use the cosmo-OWLS suite of hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the impact of baryonic processes on the bias and scatter of weak lensing mass estimates of clusters. These estimates are obtained by fitting NFW profiles to mock data using MCMC techniques. In particular, we examine the difference in estimates between dark matter-only runs and those including various prescriptions for baryonic physics. We find no significant difference in the mass bias when baryonic physics is included, though the overall mass estimates are suppressed when feedback from AGN is included. For lowest-mass systems for which a reliable mass can be obtained (M200 ≈ 2 × 1014M⊙), we find a bias of ≈-10 per cent. The magnitude of the bias tends to decrease for higher mass clusters, consistent with no bias for the most massive clusters which have masses comparable to those found in the CLASH and HFF samples. For the lowest mass clusters, the mass bias is particularly sensitive to the fit radii and the limits placed on the concentration prior, rendering reliable mass estimates difficult. The scatter in mass estimates between the dark matter-only and the various baryonic runs is less than between different projections of individual clusters, highlighting the importance of triaxiality.

Highly sensitive MOS photodetector with wide band responsivity assisted by nanoporous anodic aluminum oxide membrane.

PubMed

Chen, Yungting; Cheng, Tzuhuan; Cheng, Chungliang; Wang, Chunhsiung; Chen, Chihwei; Wei, Chihming; Chen, Yangfang

2010-01-04

A new approach for developing highly sensitive MOS photodetector based on the assistance of anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membrane is proposed, fabricated, and characterized. It enables the photodetector with the tunability of not only the intensity but also the range of the response. Under a forward bias, the response of the MOS photodetector with AAO membrane covers the visible as well as infrared spectrum; however, under a reverse bias, the near-infrared light around Si band edge dominates the photoresponse. Unlike general MOS photodetectors which only work under a reverse bias, our MOS photodetectors can work even under a forward bias, and the responsivity at the optical communication wavelength of 850nm can reach up to 0.24 A/W with an external quantum efficiency (EQE) of 35%. Moreover, the response shows a large enhancement factor of 10 times at 1050 nm under a reverse bias of 0.5V comparing with the device without AAO membrane. The underlying mechanism for the novel properties of the newly designed device has been proposed.

Interrelations of Justice, Rejection, Provocation, and Moral Disgust Sensitivity and Their Links with the Hostile Attribution Bias, Trait Anger, and Aggression

PubMed Central

Bondü, Rebecca; Richter, Philipp

2016-01-01

Several personality dispositions with common features capturing sensitivities to negative social cues have recently been introduced into psychological research. To date, however, little is known about their interrelations, their conjoint effects on behavior, or their interplay with other risk factors. We asked N = 349 adults from Germany to rate their justice, rejection, moral disgust, and provocation sensitivity, hostile attribution bias, trait anger, and forms and functions of aggression. The sensitivity measures were mostly positively correlated; particularly those with an egoistic focus, such as victim justice, rejection, and provocation sensitivity, hostile attributions and trait anger as well as those with an altruistic focus, such as observer justice, perpetrator justice, and moral disgust sensitivity. The sensitivity measures had independent and differential effects on forms and functions of aggression when considered simultaneously and when controlling for hostile attributions and anger. They could not be integrated into a single factor of interpersonal sensitivity or reduced to other well-known risk factors for aggression. The sensitivity measures, therefore, require consideration in predicting and preventing aggression. PMID:27303351

Flapless versus Conventional Flapped Dental Implant Surgery: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Chrcanovic, Bruno Ramos; Albrektsson, Tomas; Wennerberg, Ann

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to test the null hypothesis of no difference in the implant failure rates, postoperative infection, and marginal bone loss for patients being rehabilitated by dental implants being inserted by a flapless surgical procedure versus the open flap technique, against the alternative hypothesis of a difference. An electronic search without time or language restrictions was undertaken in March 2014. Eligibility criteria included clinical human studies, either randomized or not. The search strategy resulted in 23 publications. The I2 statistic was used to express the percentage of the total variation across studies due to heterogeneity. The inverse variance method was used for random-effects model or fixed-effects model, when indicated. The estimates of relative effect were expressed in risk ratio (RR) and mean difference (MD) in millimeters. Sixteen studies were judged to be at high risk of bias, whereas two studies were considered of moderate risk of bias, and five studies of low risk of bias. The funnel plots indicated absence of publication bias for the three outcomes analyzed. The test for overall effect showed that the difference between the procedures (flapless vs. open flap surgery) significantly affect the implant failure rates (P = 0.03), with a RR of 1.75 (95% CI 1.07–2.86). However, a sensitivity analysis revealed differences when studies of high and low risk of bias were pooled separately. Thus, the results must be interpreted carefully. No apparent significant effects of flapless technique on the occurrence of postoperative infection (P = 0.96; RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.23–4.03) or on the marginal bone loss (P = 0.16; MD −0.07 mm, 95% CI −0.16–0.03) were observed. PMID:24950053

On the climate model simulation of Indian monsoon low pressure systems and the effect of remote disturbances and systematic biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, Richard C.; Martin, Gill M.

2018-06-01

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic-scale systems forming over the Indian monsoon trough region, contributing substantially to seasonal mean summer monsoon rainfall there. Many current global climate models (GCMs), including the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), show deficient rainfall in this region, much of which has previously been attributed to remote systematic biases such as excessive equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) convection, while also substantially under-representing LPS and associated rainfall as they travel westwards across India. Here the sources and sensitivities of LPS to local, remote and short-timescale forcing are examined, in order to understand the poor representation in GCMs. An LPS tracking method is presented using TRACK feature tracking software for comparison between re-analysis data-sets, MetUM GCM and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. RCM simulations, at similar horizontal resolution to the GCM and forced with re-analysis data at the lateral boundaries, are carried out with different domains to examine the effects of remote biases. The results suggest that remote biases contribute significantly to the poor simulation of LPS in the GCM. As these remote systematic biases are common amongst many current GCMs, it is likely that GCMs are intrinsically capable of representing LPS, even at relatively low resolution. The main problem areas are time-mean excessive EIO convection and poor representation of precursor disturbances transmitted from the Western Pacific. The important contribution of the latter is established using RCM simulations forced by climatological 6-hourly lateral boundary conditions, which also highlight the role of LPS in moving rainfall from steep orography towards Central India.

Nonresponse bias in randomized controlled experiments in criminology: Putting the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET) under a microscope.

PubMed

Antrobus, Emma; Elffers, Henk; White, Gentry; Mazerolle, Lorraine

2013-01-01

The goal of this article is to examine whether or not the results of the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET)-a randomized controlled trial that tested the impact of procedural justice policing on citizen attitudes toward police-were affected by different types of nonresponse bias. We use two methods (Cochrane and Elffers methods) to explore nonresponse bias: First, we assess the impact of the low response rate by examining the effects of nonresponse group differences between the experimental and control conditions and pooled variance under different scenarios. Second, we assess the degree to which item response rates are influenced by the control and experimental conditions. Our analysis of the QCET data suggests that our substantive findings are not influenced by the low response rate in the trial. The results are robust even under extreme conditions, and statistical significance of the results would only be compromised in cases where the pooled variance was much larger for the nonresponse group and the difference between experimental and control conditions was greatly diminished. We also find that there were no biases in the item response rates across the experimental and control conditions. RCTs that involve field survey responses-like QCET-are potentially compromised by low response rates and how item response rates might be influenced by the control or experimental conditions. Our results show that the QCET results were not sensitive to the overall low response rate across the experimental and control conditions and the item response rates were not significantly different across the experimental and control groups. Overall, our analysis suggests that the results of QCET are robust and any biases in the survey responses do not significantly influence the main experimental findings.

Novel Methods to Explore Building Energy Sensitivity to Climate and Heat Waves Using PNNL's BEND Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burleyson, C. D.; Voisin, N.; Taylor, T.; Xie, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

The DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model to simulate energy usage in residential and commercial buildings responding to changes in weather, climate, population, and building technologies. At its core, BEND is a mechanism to aggregate EnergyPlus simulations of a large number of individual buildings with a diversity of characteristics over large spatial scales. We have completed a series of experiments to explore methods to calibrate the BEND model, measure its ability to capture interannual variability in energy demand due to weather using simulations of two distinct weather years, and understand the sensitivity to the number and location of weather stations used to force the model. The use of weather from "representative cities" reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate (Fig. 1). We quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations across the western U.S., ranging from 8 to roughly 150. Using 8 stations results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 4.0°C. The mean absolute bias drops to 1.5°C using all available stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%. Additionally, using only 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% bias of peak building loads under heat wave or cold snap conditions, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may rely on these types of simulations. This analysis suggests that using 4 stations per climate zone may be sufficient for most purposes. Our novel approach, which requires no new EnergyPlus simulations, could be useful to other researchers designing or calibrating aggregate building model simulations - particularly those looking at the impact of future climate scenarios. Fig. 1. An example of temperature bias that results from using 8 representative weather stations: (a) surface temperature from NLDAS on 5-July 2008 at 2000 UTC; (b) temperature from 8 representative stations at the same time mapped to all counties within a given IECC climate zone; (c) the difference between (a) and (b).

1H-MRS evaluation of breast lesions by using total choline signal-to-noise ratio as an indicator of malignancy: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Wang, Xiang Jiang; Song, Hui Sheng; Chen, Long Hua

2015-05-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the use of total choline signal-to-noise ratio (tCho SNR) criteria in MRS studies for benign/malignant discrimination of focal breast lesions. We conducted (1) a meta-analysis based on 10 studies including 480 malignant breast lesions and 312 benign breast lesions and (2) a subgroup meta-analysis of tCho SNR ≥ 2 as cutoff for malignancy based on 7 studies including 371 malignant breast lesions and 239 benign breast lesions. (1) The pooled sensitivity and specificity of proton MRS with tCho SNR were 0.74 (95 % CI 0.69-0.77) and 0.76 (95 % CI 0.71-0.81), respectively. The PLR and NLR were 3.67 (95 % CI 2.30-5.83) and 0.25 (95 % CI 0.14-0.42), respectively. From the fitted SROC, the AUC and Q* index were 0.89 and 0.82. Publication bias was present (t = 2.46, P = 0.039). (2) Meta-regression analysis suggested that neither threshold effect nor evaluated covariates including strength of field, pulse sequence, TR and TE were sources of heterogeneity (all P value >0.05). (3) Subgroup meta-analysis: The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.79 and 0.72, respectively. The PLR and NLR were 3.49 and 0.20, respectively. The AUC and Q* index were 0.92 and 0.85. The use of tCho SNR criteria in MRS studies was helpful for differentiation between malignant and benign breast lesions. However, pooled diagnostic measures might be overestimated due to publication bias. A tCho SNR ≥ 2 as cutoff for malignancy resulted in higher diagnostic accuracy.

Increased Risk of Post-Thrombolysis Intracranial Hemorrhage in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Leukoaraiosis: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Lin, Qianqian; Li, Zhong; Wei, Rui; Lei, Qingfeng; Liu, Yunyun; Cai, Xiaodong

2016-01-01

Background Leukoaraiosis is common in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The results from many studies investigating the association between leukoaraiosis and intracranial hemorrhage after thrombolysis remain conflicting. Methods A meta-analysis was performed to compare the risk of post-thrombolytic intracranial hemorrhage in patients with and without leukoaraiosis. Relevant reports were identified by searching PubMed, EmBase, Cochrane Library, and ISI Web of Science through December 2015 using a combination of subjective and random terms. Eligible studies that were original articles with a clear definition of leukoaraiosis and intracranial hemorrhage were selected and analyzed. Funnel plots, Egger’s test, and Begg’s test were conducted to assess the publication bias. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to evaluate the influence of each individual study. Results Eleven trials that enrolled 6912 participants were included. There was a significantly increased risk for acute ischemic stroke patients with leukoaraiosis (odds ratio: 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.51–2.37, P<0.001). Low heterogeneity and less publication bias was detected among these studies. The results of both computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging performed on the subgroups of leukoaraiosis were significant. Furthermore, an association between leukoaraiosis and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage was also confirmed. The odds ratios remained stable with no obvious variations on the sensitivity analysis. The limitations consisted of types of including trials and not matching some baseline variables. Conclusions The results of this meta-analysis show that leukoaraiosis approximately doubles the incidence of intracranial hemorrhage after thrombolytic therapy. However, it does not critically affect decision making regarding thrombolysis for patients with acute ischemic stroke. Additional investigations are required. PMID:27096292

The effects of anaesthetics on postoperative physiological reactions: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Na; Wang, Jinguo; Zhang, Rui; Wang, Fei; Wang, Rui

2015-10-01

This study aimed to systematically investigate the effects of different anaesthetics on postoperative physiological reactions compared with placebo. The literature search was conducted using three databases: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. Studies published from January 1990 to January 2015 were screened. The language was restricted to English. Heterogeneity was analyzed by the Q test and I(2) statistic. A fixed-effect model was used for homogenous data and a random-effects model for heterogeneous data. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to monitor the incidences of overall adverse events, arterial blood pressure, and cardiac abnormalities. Sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate the strength of the meta-analysis, and publication bias was analyzed using Egger's test. A total of 24 articles were included in this meta-analysis. There were 1,810 and 1,806 cases in the anaesthetic group and the placebo group, respectively. The incidence of overall adverse events was significantly lower in the anaesthetic group compared with the placebo group (OR = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38-0.84). No publication bias was observed, and no inverse estimates were calculated using sensitivity analysis. There was no significant difference for the incidence of arterial blood pressure (OR = 4.62; 95% CI, 0.90-23.70) and cardiac abnormalities (OR = 1.18; 95% CI, 0.53-2.63) between the two groups. Although the incidence of overall adverse events was decreased in the anaesthetic group, it is impossible to determine whether the use of anaesthetics during surgical operation has a protective effect on postoperative physiological reactions. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Impact of Gulf Stream SST biases on the global atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Robert W.; Woollings, Tim J.; Hoskins, Brian J.; Williams, Keith D.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Masato, Giacomo

2018-02-01

The UK Met Office Unified Model in the Global Coupled 2 (GC2) configuration has a warm bias of up to almost 7 K in the Gulf Stream SSTs in the winter season, which is associated with surface heat flux biases and potentially related to biases in the atmospheric circulation. The role of this SST bias is examined with a focus on the tropospheric response by performing three sensitivity experiments. The SST biases are imposed on the atmosphere-only configuration of the model over a small and medium section of the Gulf Stream, and also the wider North Atlantic. Here we show that the dynamical response to this anomalous Gulf Stream heating (and associated shifting and changing SST gradients) is to enhance vertical motion in the transient eddies over the Gulf Stream, rather than balance the heating with a linear dynamical meridional wind or meridional eddy heat transport. Together with the imposed Gulf Stream heating bias, the response affects the troposphere not only locally but also in remote regions of the Northern Hemisphere via a planetary Rossby wave response. The sensitivity experiments partially reproduce some of the differences in the coupled configuration of the model relative to the atmosphere-only configuration and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis. These biases may have implications for the ability of the model to respond correctly to variability or changes in the Gulf Stream. Better global prediction therefore requires particular focus on reducing any large western boundary current SST biases in these regions of high ocean-atmosphere interaction.

Anxiety sensitivity: the role of conscious awareness and selective attentional bias to physical threat.

PubMed

Hunt, Caroline; Keogh, Edmund; French, Christopher C

2006-08-01

Selective attentional biases were examined amongst individuals varying in levels of physical anxiety sensitivity. The dot-probe paradigm was used to examine attention towards anxiety symptomatology, social threat and positive words. Stimuli were presented above (unmasked) and below (masked) the level of conscious awareness. High physical anxiety sensitivity was associated with attentional vigilance for anxiety symptomatology words in both unmasked and masked conditions. For positive words, however, those high in anxiety sensitivity were found to avoid such stimuli when they were masked, whereas they exhibited a relative vigilance when unmasked. If the differences between awareness conditions are reliable, then the impact of the automatic vigilance for threat might be modified by conscious attempts to direct attention towards other types of stimuli. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved

High sensitivity measurement system for the direct-current, capacitance-voltage, and gate-drain low frequency noise characterization of field effect transistors.

PubMed

Giusi, G; Giordano, O; Scandurra, G; Rapisarda, M; Calvi, S; Ciofi, C

2016-04-01

Measurements of current fluctuations originating in electron devices have been largely used to understand the electrical properties of materials and ultimate device performances. In this work, we propose a high-sensitivity measurement setup topology suitable for the automatic and programmable Direct-Current (DC), Capacitance-Voltage (CV), and gate-drain low frequency noise characterization of field effect transistors at wafer level. Automatic and programmable operation is particularly useful when the device characteristics relax or degrade with time due to optical, bias, or temperature stress. The noise sensitivity of the proposed topology is in the order of fA/Hz(1/2), while DC performances are limited only by the source and measurement units used to bias the device under test. DC, CV, and NOISE measurements, down to 1 pA of DC gate and drain bias currents, in organic thin film transistors are reported to demonstrate system operation and performances.

Not sensitive, yet less biased: A signal detection theory perspective on mindfulness, attention, and recognition memory.

PubMed

Rosenstreich, Eyal; Ruderman, Lital

2016-07-01

The practice of mindfulness has been argued to increase attention control and improve memory performance. However, it was recently suggested that the effect of mindfulness on memory may be due to a shift in response-bias, rather than to an increase in memory-sensitivity. The present study examined the mindfulness-attention-memory triad. Participants filled in the five-facets of mindfulness questionnaire, and completed two recognition blocks; in the first attention was full, whereas in the second attention was divided during the encoding of information. It was found that the facet of non-judging (NJ) moderated the impact of attention on memory, such that responses of high NJ participants were less biased and remained constant even when attention was divided. Facets of mindfulness were not associated with memory sensitivity. These findings suggest that mindfulness may affect memory through decision making processes, rather than through directing attentional resources to the encoding of information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High sensitivity measurement system for the direct-current, capacitance-voltage, and gate-drain low frequency noise characterization of field effect transistors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giusi, G.; Giordano, O.; Scandurra, G.

Measurements of current fluctuations originating in electron devices have been largely used to understand the electrical properties of materials and ultimate device performances. In this work, we propose a high-sensitivity measurement setup topology suitable for the automatic and programmable Direct-Current (DC), Capacitance-Voltage (CV), and gate-drain low frequency noise characterization of field effect transistors at wafer level. Automatic and programmable operation is particularly useful when the device characteristics relax or degrade with time due to optical, bias, or temperature stress. The noise sensitivity of the proposed topology is in the order of fA/Hz{sup 1/2}, while DC performances are limited only bymore » the source and measurement units used to bias the device under test. DC, CV, and NOISE measurements, down to 1 pA of DC gate and drain bias currents, in organic thin film transistors are reported to demonstrate system operation and performances.« less

Research outcomes and recommendations for the assessment of progression in cancer clinical trials from a PhRMA working group.

PubMed

Stone, A M; Bushnell, W; Denne, J; Sargent, D J; Amit, O; Chen, C; Bailey-Iacona, R; Helterbrand, J; Williams, G

2011-08-01

Progression free survival (PFS) is increasingly used as a primary end-point in oncology clinical trials. This paper provides recommendations for optimal trial design, conduct and analysis in situations where PFS has the potential to be an acceptable end-point for regulatory approval. These recommendations are based on research performed by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association (PhRMA) sponsored PFS Working Group, including the re-analysis of 28 randomised Phase III trials from 12 companies/institutions. (1) In the assessment of PFS, there is a critical distinction between measurement error that results from random variation, which by itself tends to attenuate treatment effect, versus bias which increases the probability of a false negative or false positive finding. Investigator bias can be detected by auditing a random sample of patients by blinded, independent, central review (BICR). (2) ITT analyses generally resulted in smaller treatment effects (HRs closer to 1) than analyses that censor patients for potentially informative events (such as starting other anti-cancer therapy). (3) Interval censored analyses (ICA) are more robust to time-evaluation bias than the log-rank test. A sample based BICR audit may be employed in open or partially blinded trials and should not be required in true double-blind trials. Patients should be followed until progression even if they have discontinued treatment to be consistent with the ITT principle. ICAs should be a standard sensitivity analysis to assess time-evaluation bias. Implementation of these recommendations would standardize and in many cases simplify phase III oncology clinical trials that use a PFS primary end-point. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are visual threats prioritized without awareness? A critical review and meta-analysis involving 3 behavioral paradigms and 2696 observers.

PubMed

Hedger, Nicholas; Gray, Katie L H; Garner, Matthew; Adams, Wendy J

2016-09-01

Given capacity limits, only a subset of stimuli give rise to a conscious percept. Neurocognitive models suggest that humans have evolved mechanisms that operate without awareness and prioritize threatening stimuli over neutral stimuli in subsequent perception. In this meta-analysis, we review evidence for this 'standard hypothesis' emanating from 3 widely used, but rather different experimental paradigms that have been used to manipulate awareness. We found a small pooled threat-bias effect in the masked visual probe paradigm, a medium effect in the binocular rivalry paradigm and highly inconsistent effects in the breaking continuous flash suppression paradigm. Substantial heterogeneity was explained by the stimulus type: the only threat stimuli that were robustly prioritized across all 3 paradigms were fearful faces. Meta regression revealed that anxiety may modulate threat-biases, but only under specific presentation conditions. We also found that insufficiently rigorous awareness measures, inadequate control of response biases and low level confounds may undermine claims of genuine unconscious threat processing. Considering the data together, we suggest that uncritical acceptance of the standard hypothesis is premature: current behavioral evidence for threat-sensitive visual processing that operates without awareness is weak. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

SEM analysis of ionizing radiation effects in linear integrated circuits. [Scanning Electron Microscope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, A. G.; Gauthier, M. K.

1977-01-01

A successful diagnostic technique was developed using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) as a precision tool to determine ionization effects in integrated circuits. Previous SEM methods radiated the entire semiconductor chip or major areas. The large area exposure methods do not reveal the exact components which are sensitive to radiation. To locate these sensitive components a new method was developed, which consisted in successively irradiating selected components on the device chip with equal doses of electrons /10 to the 6th rad (Si)/, while the whole device was subjected to representative bias conditions. A suitable device parameter was measured in situ after each successive irradiation with the beam off.

White Light Optical Processing and Holography.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-10-01

of the object beam. The major problem in image deblurring is noise in the dclurred image. There are two kinds of noise : S (a) False images. The...reducing the noise this work is described in Sec. 3. 2. We addressed the bias buildup and SNR in incoherent optical processing, making an analysis that...system is generally better than the coherent for SNR. Thus, if we have a sensitive, low- noise detector at the output of an incoherent system, we should

Comparison of Self-Reported Telephone Interviewing and Web-Based Survey Responses: Findings From the Second Australian Young and Well National Survey.

PubMed

Milton, Alyssa C; Ellis, Louise A; Davenport, Tracey A; Burns, Jane M; Hickie, Ian B

2017-09-26

Web-based self-report surveying has increased in popularity, as it can rapidly yield large samples at a low cost. Despite this increase in popularity, in the area of youth mental health, there is a distinct lack of research comparing the results of Web-based self-report surveys with the more traditional and widely accepted computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The Second Australian Young and Well National Survey 2014 sought to compare differences in respondent response patterns using matched items on CATI versus a Web-based self-report survey. The aim of this study was to examine whether responses varied as a result of item sensitivity, that is, the item's susceptibility to exaggeration on underreporting and to assess whether certain subgroups demonstrated this effect to a greater extent. A subsample of young people aged 16 to 25 years (N=101), recruited through the Second Australian Young and Well National Survey 2014, completed the identical items on two occasions: via CATI and via Web-based self-report survey. Respondents also rated perceived item sensitivity. When comparing CATI with the Web-based self-report survey, a Wilcoxon signed-rank analysis showed that respondents answered 14 of the 42 matched items in a significantly different way. Significant variation in responses (CATI vs Web-based) was more frequent if the item was also rated by the respondents as highly sensitive in nature. Specifically, 63% (5/8) of the high sensitivity items, 43% (3/7) of the neutral sensitivity items, and 0% (0/4) of the low sensitivity items were answered in a significantly different manner by respondents when comparing their matched CATI and Web-based question responses. The items that were perceived as highly sensitive by respondents and demonstrated response variability included the following: sexting activities, body image concerns, experience of diagnosis, and suicidal ideation. For high sensitivity items, a regression analysis showed respondents who were male (beta=-.19, P=.048) or who were not in employment, education, or training (NEET; beta=-.32, P=.001) were significantly more likely to provide different responses on matched items when responding in the CATI as compared with the Web-based self-report survey. The Web-based self-report survey, however, demonstrated some evidence of avidity and attrition bias. Compared with CATI, Web-based self-report surveys are highly cost-effective and had higher rates of self-disclosure on sensitive items, particularly for respondents who identify as male and NEET. A drawback to Web-based surveying methodologies, however, includes the limited control over avidity bias and the greater incidence of attrition bias. These findings have important implications for further development of survey methods in the area of health and well-being, especially when considering research topics (in this case diagnosis, suicidal ideation, sexting, and body image) and groups that are being recruited (young people, males, and NEET). ©Alyssa C Milton, Louise A Ellis, Tracey A Davenport, Jane M Burns, Ian B Hickie. Originally published in JMIR Mental Health (http://mental.jmir.org), 26.09.2017.

Categorical perception of facial expressions in individuals with non-clinical social anxiety.

PubMed

Qiu, Fanghui; Han, Mingxiu; Zhai, Yu; Jia, Shiwei

2018-03-01

According to the well-established categorical perception (CP) of facial expressions, we decode complicated expression signals into simplified categories to facilitate expression processing. Expression processing deficits have been widely described in social anxiety (SA), but it remains to be investigated whether CP of expressions are affected by SA. The present study examined whether individuals with SA had an interpretation bias when processing ambiguous expressions and whether the sensitivity of their CP was affected by their SA. Sixty-four participants (high SA, 30; low SA, 34) were selected from 658 undergraduates using the Interaction Anxiousness Scale (IAS). With the CP paradigm, specifically with the analysis method of the logistic function model, we derived the categorical boundaries (reflecting interpretation bias) and slopes (reflecting sensitivity of CP) of both high- and low-SA groups while recognizing angry-fearful, happy-angry, and happy-fearful expression continua. Based on a comparison of the categorical boundaries and slopes between the high- and low-SA groups, the results showed that the categorical boundaries between the two groups were not different for any of the three continua, which means that the SA does not affect the interpretation bias for any of the three continua. The slopes for the high-SA group were flatter than those for the low-SA group for both the angry-fearful and happy-angry continua, indicating that the high-SA group is insensitive to the subtle changes that occur from angry to fearful faces and from happy to angry faces. Since participants were selected from a sample of undergraduates based on their IAS scores, the results cannot be directly generalized to individuals with clinical SA disorder. The study indicates that SA does not affect interpretation biases in the processing of anger, fear, and happiness, but does modulate the sensitivity of individuals' CP when anger appears. High-SA individuals perceive angry expressions in a less categorical manner than the low-SA group, but no such difference was found in the perception of happy or fearful expressions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subtracting the sequence bias from partially digested MNase-seq data reveals a general contribution of TFIIS to nucleosome positioning.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Gabriel; Millán-Zambrano, Gonzalo; Medina, Daniel A; Jordán-Pla, Antonio; Pérez-Ortín, José E; Peñate, Xenia; Chávez, Sebastián

2017-12-07

TFIIS stimulates RNA cleavage by RNA polymerase II and promotes the resolution of backtracking events. TFIIS acts in the chromatin context, but its contribution to the chromatin landscape has not yet been investigated. Co-transcriptional chromatin alterations include subtle changes in nucleosome positioning, like those expected to be elicited by TFIIS, which are elusive to detect. The most popular method to map nucleosomes involves intensive chromatin digestion by micrococcal nuclease (MNase). Maps based on these exhaustively digested samples miss any MNase-sensitive nucleosomes caused by transcription. In contrast, partial digestion approaches preserve such nucleosomes, but introduce noise due to MNase sequence preferences. A systematic way of correcting this bias for massively parallel sequencing experiments is still missing. To investigate the contribution of TFIIS to the chromatin landscape, we developed a refined nucleosome-mapping method in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Based on partial MNase digestion and a sequence-bias correction derived from naked DNA cleavage, the refined method efficiently mapped nucleosomes in promoter regions rich in MNase-sensitive structures. The naked DNA correction was also important for mapping gene body nucleosomes, particularly in those genes whose core promoters contain a canonical TATA element. With this improved method, we analyzed the global nucleosomal changes caused by lack of TFIIS. We detected a general increase in nucleosomal fuzziness and more restricted changes in nucleosome occupancy, which concentrated in some gene categories. The TATA-containing genes were preferentially associated with decreased occupancy in gene bodies, whereas the TATA-like genes did so with increased fuzziness. The detected chromatin alterations correlated with functional defects in nascent transcription, as revealed by genomic run-on experiments. The combination of partial MNase digestion and naked DNA correction of the sequence bias is a precise nucleosomal mapping method that does not exclude MNase-sensitive nucleosomes. This method is useful for detecting subtle alterations in nucleosome positioning produced by lack of TFIIS. Their analysis revealed that TFIIS generally contributed to nucleosome positioning in both gene promoters and bodies. The independent effect of lack of TFIIS on nucleosome occupancy and fuzziness supports the existence of alternative chromatin dynamics during transcription elongation.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

PubMed

Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

2013-01-01

There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

Temperature sensitivity of a numerical pollen forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheifinger, Helfried; Meran, Ingrid; Szabo, Barbara; Gallaun, Heinz; Natali, Stefano; Mantovani, Simone

2016-04-01

Allergic rhinitis has become a global health problem especially affecting children and adolescence. Timely and reliable warning before an increase of the atmospheric pollen concentration means a substantial support for physicians and allergy suffers. Recently developed numerical pollen forecast models have become means to support the pollen forecast service, which however still require refinement. One of the problem areas concerns the correct timing of the beginning and end of the flowering period of the species under consideration, which is identical with the period of possible pollen emission. Both are governed essentially by the temperature accumulated before the entry of flowering and during flowering. Phenological models are sensitive to a bias of the temperature. A mean bias of -1°C of the input temperature can shift the entry date of a phenological phase for about a week into the future. A bias of such an order of magnitude is still possible in case of numerical weather forecast models. If the assimilation of additional temperature information (e.g. ground measurements as well as satellite-retrieved air / surface temperature fields) is able to reduce such systematic temperature deviations, the precision of the timing of phenological entry dates might be enhanced. With a number of sensitivity experiments the effect of a possible temperature bias on the modelled phenology and the pollen concentration in the atmosphere is determined. The actual bias of the ECMWF IFS 2 m temperature will also be calculated and its effect on the numerical pollen forecast procedure presented.

Attentional Bias for Reward and Punishment in Overweight and Obesity: The TRAILS Study

PubMed Central

Glashouwer, Klaske A.; Ostafin, Brian D.; van Hemel-Ruiter, Madelon E.; Smink, Frédérique R. E.; Hoek, Hans W.; de Jong, Peter J.

2016-01-01

More than 80% of obese adolescents will become obese adults, and it is therefore important to enhance insight into characteristics that underlie the development and maintenance of overweight and obesity at a young age. The current study is the first to focus on attentional biases towards rewarding and punishing cues as potentially important factors. Participants were young adolescents (N = 607) who were followed from the age of 13 until the age of 19, and completed a motivational game indexing the attentional bias to general cues of reward and punishment. Additionally, self-reported reward and punishment sensitivity was measured. This study showed that attentional biases to cues that signal reward or punishment and self-reported reward and punishment sensitivity were not related to body mass index or the change in body mass index over six years in adolescents. Thus, attentional bias to cues of reward and cues of punishment, and self-reported reward and punishment sensitivity, do not seem to be crucial factors in the development and maintenance of overweight and obesity in adolescents. Exploratory analyses of the current study suggest that the amount of effort to gain reward and to avoid punishment may play a role in the development and maintenance of overweight and obesity. However, since the effort measure was a construct based on face validity and has not been properly validated, more studies are necessary before firm conclusions can be drawn. PMID:27391017

Evaluation of tropical Pacific observing systems using NCEP and GFDL ocean data assimilation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Yan; Wen, Caihong; Yang, Xiaosong; Behringer, David; Kumar, Arun; Vecchi, Gabriel; Rosati, Anthony; Gudgel, Rich

2017-08-01

The TAO/TRITON array is the cornerstone of the tropical Pacific and ENSO observing system. Motivated by the recent rapid decline of the TAO/TRITON array, the potential utility of TAO/TRITON was assessed for ENSO monitoring and prediction. The analysis focused on the period when observations from Argo floats were also available. We coordinated observing system experiments (OSEs) using the global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for the period 2004-2011. Four OSE simulations were conducted with inclusion of different subsets of in situ profiles: all profiles (XBT, moorings, Argo), all except the moorings, all except the Argo and no profiles. For evaluation of the OSE simulations, we examined the mean bias, standard deviation difference, root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and anomaly correlation against observations and objective analyses. Without assimilation of in situ observations, both GODAS and ECDA had large mean biases and RMSD in all variables. Assimilation of all in situ data significantly reduced mean biases and RMSD in all variables except zonal current at the equator. For GODAS, the mooring data is critical in constraining temperature in the eastern and northwestern tropical Pacific, while for ECDA both the mooring and Argo data is needed in constraining temperature in the western tropical Pacific. The Argo data is critical in constraining temperature in off-equatorial regions for both GODAS and ECDA. For constraining salinity, sea surface height and surface current analysis, the influence of Argo data was more pronounced. In addition, the salinity data from the TRITON buoys played an important role in constraining salinity in the western Pacific. GODAS was more sensitive to withholding Argo data in off-equatorial regions than ECDA because it relied on local observations to correct model biases and there were few XBT profiles in those regions. The results suggest that multiple ocean data assimilation systems should be used to assess sensitivity of ocean analyses to changes in the distribution of ocean observations to get more robust results that can guide the design of future tropical Pacific observing systems.

Influences of sampling volume and sample concentration on the analysis of atmospheric carbonyls by 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine cartridge.

PubMed

Pal, Raktim; Kim, Ki-Hyun

2008-03-10

In this study, the analytical bias involved in the application of the 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine (2,4-DNPH)-coated cartridge sampling method was investigated for the analysis of five atmospheric carbonyl species (i.e., acetaldehyde, propionaldehyde, butyraldehyde, isovaleraldehyde, and valeraldehyde). In order to evaluate the potential bias of the sampling technique, a series of the laboratory experiments were conducted to cover a wide range of volumes (1-20 L) and concentration levels (approximately 100-2000 ppb in case of acetaldehyde). The results of these experiments were then evaluated in terms of the recovery rate (RR) for each carbonyl species. The detection properties of these carbonyls were clearly distinguished between light and heavy species in terms of RR and its relative standard error (R.S.E.). It also indicates that the studied analytical approach can yield the most reliable pattern for light carbonyls, especially acetaldehyde. When these experimental results were tested further by a two-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA), the analysis based on the cartridge sampling method is affected more sensitively by the concentration levels of samples rather than the sampling volume.

Analysis of Observational Studies in the Presence of Treatment Selection Bias: Effects of Invasive Cardiac Management on AMI Survival Using Propensity Score and Instrumental Variable Methods

PubMed Central

Stukel, Thérèse A.; Fisher, Elliott S; Wennberg, David E.; Alter, David A.; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; Vermeulen, Marian J.

2007-01-01

Context Comparisons of outcomes between patients treated and untreated in observational studies may be biased due to differences in patient prognosis between groups, often because of unobserved treatment selection biases. Objective To compare 4 analytic methods for removing the effects of selection bias in observational studies: multivariable model risk adjustment, propensity score risk adjustment, propensity-based matching, and instrumental variable analysis. Design, Setting, and Patients A national cohort of 122 124 patients who were elderly (aged 65–84 years), receiving Medicare, and hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 1994–1995, and who were eligible for cardiac catheterization. Baseline chart reviews were taken from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project and linked to Medicare health administrative data to provide a rich set of prognostic variables. Patients were followed up for 7 years through December 31, 2001, to assess the association between long-term survival and cardiac catheterization within 30 days of hospital admission. Main Outcome Measure Risk-adjusted relative mortality rate using each of the analytic methods. Results Patients who received cardiac catheterization (n=73 238) were younger and had lower AMI severity than those who did not. After adjustment for prognostic factors by using standard statistical risk-adjustment methods, cardiac catheterization was associated with a 50% relative decrease in mortality (for multivariable model risk adjustment: adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50–0.52; for propensity score risk adjustment: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53–0.55; and for propensity-based matching: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52–0.56). Using regional catheterization rate as an instrument, instrumental variable analysis showed a 16% relative decrease in mortality (adjusted RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79–0.90). The survival benefits of routine invasive care from randomized clinical trials are between 8% and 21 %. Conclusions Estimates of the observational association of cardiac catheterization with long-term AMI mortality are highly sensitive to analytic method. All standard risk-adjustment methods have the same limitations regarding removal of unmeasured treatment selection biases. Compared with standard modeling, instrumental variable analysis may produce less biased estimates of treatment effects, but is more suited to answering policy questions than specific clinical questions. PMID:17227979

Good practices for quantitative bias analysis.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; MacLehose, Richard F; Maldonado, George; McCandless, Lawrence C; Greenland, Sander

2014-12-01

Quantitative bias analysis serves several objectives in epidemiological research. First, it provides a quantitative estimate of the direction, magnitude and uncertainty arising from systematic errors. Second, the acts of identifying sources of systematic error, writing down models to quantify them, assigning values to the bias parameters and interpreting the results combat the human tendency towards overconfidence in research results, syntheses and critiques and the inferences that rest upon them. Finally, by suggesting aspects that dominate uncertainty in a particular research result or topic area, bias analysis can guide efficient allocation of sparse research resources. The fundamental methods of bias analyses have been known for decades, and there have been calls for more widespread use for nearly as long. There was a time when some believed that bias analyses were rarely undertaken because the methods were not widely known and because automated computing tools were not readily available to implement the methods. These shortcomings have been largely resolved. We must, therefore, contemplate other barriers to implementation. One possibility is that practitioners avoid the analyses because they lack confidence in the practice of bias analysis. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe what we view as good practices for applying quantitative bias analysis to epidemiological data, directed towards those familiar with the methods. We focus on answering questions often posed to those of us who advocate incorporation of bias analysis methods into teaching and research. These include the following. When is bias analysis practical and productive? How does one select the biases that ought to be addressed? How does one select a method to model biases? How does one assign values to the parameters of a bias model? How does one present and interpret a bias analysis?. We hope that our guide to good practices for conducting and presenting bias analyses will encourage more widespread use of bias analysis to estimate the potential magnitude and direction of biases, as well as the uncertainty in estimates potentially influenced by the biases. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Electrochemical force microscopy

DOEpatents

Kalinin, Sergei V.; Jesse, Stephen; Collins, Liam F.; Rodriguez, Brian J.

2017-01-10

A system and method for electrochemical force microscopy are provided. The system and method are based on a multidimensional detection scheme that is sensitive to forces experienced by a biased electrode in a solution. The multidimensional approach allows separation of fast processes, such as double layer charging, and charge relaxation, and slow processes, such as diffusion and faradaic reactions, as well as capturing the bias dependence of the response. The time-resolved and bias measurements can also allow probing both linear (small bias range) and non-linear (large bias range) electrochemical regimes and potentially the de-convolution of charge dynamics and diffusion processes from steric effects and electrochemical reactivity.

MEMS inertial sensors with integral rotation means.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kohler, Stewart M.

The state-of-the-art of inertial micro-sensors (gyroscopes and accelerometers) has advanced to the point where they are displacing the more traditional sensors in many size, power, and/or cost-sensitive applications. A factor limiting the range of application of inertial micro-sensors has been their relatively poor bias stability. The incorporation of an integral sensitive axis rotation capability would enable bias mitigation through proven techniques such as indexing, and foster the use of inertial micro-sensors in more accuracy-sensitive applications. Fabricating the integral rotation mechanism in MEMS technology would minimize the penalties associated with incorporation of this capability, and preserve the inherent advantages of inertialmore » micro-sensors.« less

Analysis of sensitive questions across cultures: an application of multigroup item randomized response theory to sexual attitudes and behavior.

PubMed

de Jong, Martijn G; Pieters, Rik; Stremersch, Stefan

2012-09-01

Answers to sensitive questions are prone to social desirability bias. If not properly addressed, the validity of the research can be suspect. This article presents multigroup item randomized response theory (MIRRT) to measure self-reported sensitive topics across cultures. The method was specifically developed to reduce social desirability bias by making an a priori change in the design of the survey. The change involves the use of a randomization device (e.g., a die) that preserves participants' privacy at the item level. In cases where multiple items measure a higher level theoretical construct, the researcher could still make inferences at the individual level. The method can correct for under- and overreporting, even if both occur in a sample of individuals or across nations. We present and illustrate MIRRT in a nontechnical manner, provide WinBugs software code so that researchers can directly implement it, and present 2 cross-national studies in which it was applied. The first study compared nonstudent samples from 2 countries (total n = 927) on permissive sexual attitudes and risky sexual behavior and related these to individual-level characteristics such as the Big Five personality traits. The second study compared nonstudent samples from 17 countries (total n = 6,195) on risky sexual behavior and related these to individual-level characteristics, such as gender and age, and to country-level characteristics, such as sex ratio.

Self-Biased 215MHz Magnetoelectric NEMS Resonator for Ultra-Sensitive DC Magnetic Field Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nan, Tianxiang; Hui, Yu; Rinaldi, Matteo; Sun, Nian X.

2013-06-01

High sensitivity magnetoelectric sensors with their electromechanical resonance frequencies < 200 kHz have been recently demonstrated using magnetostrictive/piezoelectric magnetoelectric heterostructures. In this work, we demonstrate a novel magnetoelectric nano-electromechanical systems (NEMS) resonator with an electromechanical resonance frequency of 215 MHz based on an AlN/(FeGaB/Al2O3) × 10 magnetoelectric heterostructure for detecting DC magnetic fields. This magnetoelectric NEMS resonator showed a high quality factor of 735, and strong magnetoelectric coupling with a large voltage tunable sensitivity. The admittance of the magnetoelectric NEMS resonator was very sensitive to DC magnetic fields at its electromechanical resonance, which led to a new detection mechanism for ultra-sensitive self-biased RF NEMS magnetoelectric sensor with a low limit of detection of DC magnetic fields of ~300 picoTelsa. The magnetic/piezoelectric heterostructure based RF NEMS magnetoelectric sensor is compact, power efficient and readily integrated with CMOS technology, which represents a new class of ultra-sensitive magnetometers for DC and low frequency AC magnetic fields.

Dynamic Integration of Reward and Stimulus Information in Perceptual Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Gao, Juan; Tortell, Rebecca; McClelland, James L.

2011-01-01

In perceptual decision-making, ideal decision-makers should bias their choices toward alternatives associated with larger rewards, and the extent of the bias should decrease as stimulus sensitivity increases. When responses must be made at different times after stimulus onset, stimulus sensitivity grows with time from zero to a final asymptotic level. Are decision makers able to produce responses that are more biased if they are made soon after stimulus onset, but less biased if they are made after more evidence has been accumulated? If so, how close to optimal can they come in doing this, and how might their performance be achieved mechanistically? We report an experiment in which the payoff for each alternative is indicated before stimulus onset. Processing time is controlled by a “go” cue occurring at different times post stimulus onset, requiring a response within msec. Reward bias does start high when processing time is short and decreases as sensitivity increases, leveling off at a non-zero value. However, the degree of bias is sub-optimal for shorter processing times. We present a mechanistic account of participants' performance within the framework of the leaky competing accumulator model [1], in which accumulators for each alternative accumulate noisy information subject to leakage and mutual inhibition. The leveling off of accuracy is attributed to mutual inhibition between the accumulators, allowing the accumulator that gathers the most evidence early in a trial to suppress the alternative. Three ways reward might affect decision making in this framework are considered. One of the three, in which reward affects the starting point of the evidence accumulation process, is consistent with the qualitative pattern of the observed reward bias effect, while the other two are not. Incorporating this assumption into the leaky competing accumulator model, we are able to provide close quantitative fits to individual participant data. PMID:21390225

Dynamic integration of reward and stimulus information in perceptual decision-making.

PubMed

Gao, Juan; Tortell, Rebecca; McClelland, James L

2011-03-03

In perceptual decision-making, ideal decision-makers should bias their choices toward alternatives associated with larger rewards, and the extent of the bias should decrease as stimulus sensitivity increases. When responses must be made at different times after stimulus onset, stimulus sensitivity grows with time from zero to a final asymptotic level. Are decision makers able to produce responses that are more biased if they are made soon after stimulus onset, but less biased if they are made after more evidence has been accumulated? If so, how close to optimal can they come in doing this, and how might their performance be achieved mechanistically? We report an experiment in which the payoff for each alternative is indicated before stimulus onset. Processing time is controlled by a "go" cue occurring at different times post stimulus onset, requiring a response within msec. Reward bias does start high when processing time is short and decreases as sensitivity increases, leveling off at a non-zero value. However, the degree of bias is sub-optimal for shorter processing times. We present a mechanistic account of participants' performance within the framework of the leaky competing accumulator model [1], in which accumulators for each alternative accumulate noisy information subject to leakage and mutual inhibition. The leveling off of accuracy is attributed to mutual inhibition between the accumulators, allowing the accumulator that gathers the most evidence early in a trial to suppress the alternative. Three ways reward might affect decision making in this framework are considered. One of the three, in which reward affects the starting point of the evidence accumulation process, is consistent with the qualitative pattern of the observed reward bias effect, while the other two are not. Incorporating this assumption into the leaky competing accumulator model, we are able to provide close quantitative fits to individual participant data.

Bias in the physical examination of patients with lumbar radiculopathy

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background No prior studies have examined systematic bias in the musculoskeletal physical examination. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar spine magnetic resonance imaging findings (MRI) on perceived diagnostic accuracy of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. Methods This was a cross-sectional comparison of the performance characteristics of the physical examination with blinding to MRI results (the 'independent group') with performance in the situation where the physical examination was not blinded to MRI results (the 'non-independent group'). The reference standard was the final diagnostic impression of nerve root impingement by the examining physician. Subjects were recruited from a hospital-based outpatient specialty spine clinic. All adults age 18 and older presenting with lower extremity radiating pain of duration ≤ 12 weeks were evaluated for participation. 154 consecutively recruited subjects with lumbar disk herniation confirmed by lumbar spine MRI were included in this study. Sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the independent and non-independent groups for the four components of the radiculopathy examination: 1) provocative testing, 2) motor strength testing, 3) pinprick sensory testing, and 4) deep tendon reflex testing. Results The perceived sensitivity of sensory testing was higher with prior knowledge of MRI results (20% vs. 36%; p = 0.05). Sensitivities and specificities for exam components otherwise showed no statistically significant differences between groups. Conclusions Prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results may introduce bias into the pinprick sensory testing component of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. No statistically significant effect of bias was seen for other components of the physical examination. The effect of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results should be considered when an isolated sensory deficit on examination is used in medical decision-making. Further studies of bias should include surgical clinic populations and other common diagnoses including shoulder, knee and hip pathology. PMID:21118558

Bias in the physical examination of patients with lumbar radiculopathy.

PubMed

Suri, Pradeep; Hunter, David J; Katz, Jeffrey N; Li, Ling; Rainville, James

2010-11-30

No prior studies have examined systematic bias in the musculoskeletal physical examination. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar spine magnetic resonance imaging findings (MRI) on perceived diagnostic accuracy of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. This was a cross-sectional comparison of the performance characteristics of the physical examination with blinding to MRI results (the 'independent group') with performance in the situation where the physical examination was not blinded to MRI results (the 'non-independent group'). The reference standard was the final diagnostic impression of nerve root impingement by the examining physician. Subjects were recruited from a hospital-based outpatient specialty spine clinic. All adults age 18 and older presenting with lower extremity radiating pain of duration ≤ 12 weeks were evaluated for participation. 154 consecutively recruited subjects with lumbar disk herniation confirmed by lumbar spine MRI were included in this study. Sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the independent and non-independent groups for the four components of the radiculopathy examination: 1) provocative testing, 2) motor strength testing, 3) pinprick sensory testing, and 4) deep tendon reflex testing. The perceived sensitivity of sensory testing was higher with prior knowledge of MRI results (20% vs. 36%; p = 0.05). Sensitivities and specificities for exam components otherwise showed no statistically significant differences between groups. Prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results may introduce bias into the pinprick sensory testing component of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. No statistically significant effect of bias was seen for other components of the physical examination. The effect of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results should be considered when an isolated sensory deficit on examination is used in medical decision-making. Further studies of bias should include surgical clinic populations and other common diagnoses including shoulder, knee and hip pathology.

Decisions reduce sensitivity to subsequent information.

PubMed

Bronfman, Zohar Z; Brezis, Noam; Moran, Rani; Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Donner, Tobias; Usher, Marius

2015-07-07

Behavioural studies over half a century indicate that making categorical choices alters beliefs about the state of the world. People seem biased to confirm previous choices, and to suppress contradicting information. These choice-dependent biases imply a fundamental bound of human rationality. However, it remains unclear whether these effects extend to lower level decisions, and only little is known about the computational mechanisms underlying them. Building on the framework of sequential-sampling models of decision-making, we developed novel psychophysical protocols that enable us to dissect quantitatively how choices affect the way decision-makers accumulate additional noisy evidence. We find robust choice-induced biases in the accumulation of abstract numerical (experiment 1) and low-level perceptual (experiment 2) evidence. These biases deteriorate estimations of the mean value of the numerical sequence (experiment 1) and reduce the likelihood to revise decisions (experiment 2). Computational modelling reveals that choices trigger a reduction of sensitivity to subsequent evidence via multiplicative gain modulation, rather than shifting the decision variable towards the chosen alternative in an additive fashion. Our results thus show that categorical choices alter the evidence accumulation mechanism itself, rather than just its outcome, rendering the decision-maker less sensitive to new information. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

CMB internal delensing with general optimal estimator for higher-order correlations

DOE PAGES

Namikawa, Toshiya

2017-05-24

We present here a new method for delensing B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using a lensing potential reconstructed from the same realization of the CMB polarization (CMB internal delensing). The B -mode delensing is required to improve sensitivity to primary B modes generated by, e.g., the inflationary gravitational waves, axionlike particles, modified gravity, primordial magnetic fields, and topological defects such as cosmic strings. However, the CMB internal delensing suffers from substantial biases due to correlations between observed CMB maps to be delensed and that used for reconstructing a lensing potential. Since the bias depends on realizations, wemore » construct a realization-dependent (RD) estimator for correcting these biases by deriving a general optimal estimator for higher-order correlations. The RD method is less sensitive to simulation uncertainties. Compared to the previous ℓ -splitting method, we find that the RD method corrects the biases without substantial degradation of the delensing efficiency.« less

The effectiveness of the Herbst appliance for patients with Class II malocclusion: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Xin; Zhu, Yafen; Long, Hu; Zhou, Yang; Jian, Fan; Ye, Niansong; Gao, Meiya

2016-01-01

Summary Objective: To systematically investigate review in literature the effects of the Herbst appliance for patients with Class II malocclusion patients. Method: We performed a comprehensive literature survey on PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, CENTRAL, SIGLE, and ClinicalTrial.gov up to December 2014. The selection criteria: randomized controlled trials or clinical controlled trials; using any kind of Herbst appliances to correct Class II division 1 malocclusions; skeletal and/or dental changes evaluated through lateral cephalograms. And the exclusion criteria: syndromic patients; individual case reports and series of cases; surgical interventions. Article screening, data extraction, assessment of risk of bias, and evaluation of evidence quality through GRADE were conducted independently by two well-trained orthodontic doctors. Consensus was made via group discussion of all authors when there is inconsistent information from the two. After that, sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis were performed to evaluate the robustness of the meta-analysis. Results: Twelve clinical controlled trials meet the above-mentioned criteria, and were included in this analysis. All included studies have eleven measures taken during both active treatment effect and long term effect periods, including four angular ones (i.e., SNA, SNB, ANB, mandibular plane angle) and seven linear ones (i.e. Co-Go, Co-Gn, overjet, overbite, molar relationship, A point-OLp, Pg-OLp) during active treatment effect period were statistically pooled. Meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis demonstrated that all these measures showed consistent results except for SNA, ANB, and overbite. Subgroup analysis showed significant changes in SNA, overbite, and Pg-OLp. Publication bias was detected in SNB, mandibular plane angle, and A point-OLp. Conclusion: The Herbst appliance is effective for patients with Class II malocclusion in active treatment period. Especially, there are obvious changes on dental discrepancy and skeletal changes on Co-Gn. As to its long-term effects, more evidence is needed to draw conclusions. PMID:26306822

Diagnosis of glenoid labral tears using 3-tesla MRI vs. 3-tesla MRA: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ajuied, Adil; McGarvey, Ciaran P; Harb, Ziad; Smith, Christian C; Houghton, Russell P; Corbett, Steven A

2018-05-01

Various protocols exist for magnetic resonance arthrogram (MRA) of the shoulder, including 3D isotropic scanning and positioning in neutral (2D neutral MRA), or abduction-external-rotation (ABER). MRA does not improve diagnostic accuracy for labral tears when compared to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) performed using 3-Tesla (3T) magnets. Systematic review of the Cochrane, MEDLINE, and PubMed databases according to PRISMA guidelines. Included studies compared 3T MRI or 3T MRA (index tests) to arthroscopic findings (reference test). Methodological appraisal performed using QUADAS-2. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were calculated. Ten studies including 929 patients were included. Index test bias and applicability were a concern in the majority of studies. The use of arthroscopy as the reference test raised concern of verification bias in all studies. For anterior labral lesions, 3T MRI was less sensitive (0.83 vs. 0.87 p = 0.083) than 3T 2D neutral MRA. Compared to 3T 2D neutral MRA, both 3T 3D Isotropic MRA and 3T ABER MRA significantly improved sensitivity (0.87 vs. 0.95 vs. 0.94). For SLAP lesions, 3T 2D neutral MRA was of similar sensitivity to 3T MRI (0.84 vs. 0.83, p = 0.575), but less specific (0.99 vs. 0.92 p < 0.0001). For posterior labral lesions, 3T 2D neutral MRA had greater sensitivity than 3T 3D Isotropic MRA and 3T MRI (0.90 vs. 0.83 vs. 0.83). At 3-T, MRA improved sensitivity for diagnosis of anterior and posterior labral lesions, but reduced specificity in diagnosis of SLAP tears. 3T MRA with ABER positioning further improved sensitivity in diagnosis of anterior labral tears. IV.

Weak Lensing Study in VOICE Survey II: Shear Bias Calibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dezi; Fu, Liping; Liu, Xiangkun; Radovich, Mario; Wang, Chao; Pan, Chuzhong; Fan, Zuhui; Covone, Giovanni; Vaccari, Mattia; Botticella, Maria Teresa; Capaccioli, Massimo; De Cicco, Demetra; Grado, Aniello; Miller, Lance; Napolitano, Nicola; Paolillo, Maurizio; Pignata, Giuliano

2018-05-01

The VST Optical Imaging of the CDFS and ES1 Fields (VOICE) Survey is proposed to obtain deep optical ugri imaging of the CDFS and ES1 fields using the VLT Survey Telescope (VST). At present, the observations for the CDFS field have been completed, and comprise in total about 4.9 deg2 down to rAB ˜ 26 mag. In the companion paper by Fu et al. (2018), we present the weak lensing shear measurements for r-band images with seeing ≤ 0.9 arcsec. In this paper, we perform image simulations to calibrate possible biases of the measured shear signals. Statistically, the properties of the simulated point spread function (PSF) and galaxies show good agreements with those of observations. The multiplicative bias is calibrated to reach an accuracy of ˜3.0%. We study the bias sensitivities to the undetected faint galaxies and to the neighboring galaxies. We find that undetected galaxies contribute to the multiplicative bias at the level of ˜0.3%. Further analysis shows that galaxies with lower signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are impacted more significantly because the undetected galaxies skew the background noise distribution. For the neighboring galaxies, we find that although most have been rejected in the shape measurement procedure, about one third of them still remain in the final shear sample. They show a larger ellipticity dispersion and contribute to ˜0.2% of the multiplicative bias. Such a bias can be removed by further eliminating these neighboring galaxies. But the effective number density of the galaxies can be reduced considerably. Therefore efficient methods should be developed for future weak lensing deep surveys.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Hydroclimatic Controls over Global Variations in Phenology and Carbon Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Walker, G.; Thornton, Patti; Collatz, G. J.

2012-01-01

The connection between phenological and hydroclimatological variations are quantified through joint analyses of global NDVI, LAI, and precipitation datasets. The global distributions of both NDVI and LAI in the warm season are strongly controlled by three quantities: mean annual precipitation, the standard deviation of annual precipitation, and Budyko's index of dryness. Upon demonstrating that these same basic (if biased) relationships are produced by a dynamic vegetation model (the dynamic vegetation and carbon storage components of the NCAR Community Land Model version 4 combined with the water and energy balance framework of the Catchment Land Surface Model of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), we use the model to perform a sensitivity study focusing on how phenology and carbon flux might respond to climatic change. The offline (decoupled from the atmosphere) simulations show us, for example, where on the globe a given small increment in precipitation mean or variability would have the greatest impact on carbon uptake. The analysis framework allows us in addition to quantify the degree to which climatic biases in a free-running GCM are manifested as biases in simulated phenology.

Hydroclimatic Controls over Global Variations in Phenology and Carbon Flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koster, R. D.; Walker, G.; Thornton, P. E.; Collatz, G. J.

2012-12-01

The connection between phenological and hydroclimatological variations are quantified through joint analyses of global NDVI, LAI, and precipitation datasets. The global distributions of both NDVI and LAI in the warm season are strongly controlled by three quantities: mean annual precipitation, the standard deviation of annual precipitation, and Budyko's index of dryness. Upon demonstrating that these same basic (if somewhat biased) relationships are produced by a dynamic vegetation model (the dynamic vegetation and carbon storage components of the NCAR Community Land Model version 4 combined with the water and energy balance framework of the Catchment Land Surface Model of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), we use the model to perform a sensitivity study focusing on how phenology and carbon flux might respond to climatic change. The offline (decoupled from the atmosphere) simulations show us, for example, where on the globe a given small increment in precipitation mean or variability would have the greatest impact on carbon uptake. The analysis framework allows us in addition to quantify the degree to which climatic biases in a free-running GCM are manifested as biases in simulated phenology.

On the multiple imputation variance estimator for control-based and delta-adjusted pattern mixture models.

PubMed

Tang, Yongqiang

2017-12-01

Control-based pattern mixture models (PMM) and delta-adjusted PMMs are commonly used as sensitivity analyses in clinical trials with non-ignorable dropout. These PMMs assume that the statistical behavior of outcomes varies by pattern in the experimental arm in the imputation procedure, but the imputed data are typically analyzed by a standard method such as the primary analysis model. In the multiple imputation (MI) inference, Rubin's variance estimator is generally biased when the imputation and analysis models are uncongenial. One objective of the article is to quantify the bias of Rubin's variance estimator in the control-based and delta-adjusted PMMs for longitudinal continuous outcomes. These PMMs assume the same observed data distribution as the mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM). We derive analytic expressions for the MI treatment effect estimator and the associated Rubin's variance in these PMMs and MMRM as functions of the maximum likelihood estimator from the MMRM analysis and the observed proportion of subjects in each dropout pattern when the number of imputations is infinite. The asymptotic bias is generally small or negligible in the delta-adjusted PMM, but can be sizable in the control-based PMM. This indicates that the inference based on Rubin's rule is approximately valid in the delta-adjusted PMM. A simple variance estimator is proposed to ensure asymptotically valid MI inferences in these PMMs, and compared with the bootstrap variance. The proposed method is illustrated by the analysis of an antidepressant trial, and its performance is further evaluated via a simulation study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Practical guidance on characterizing availability in resource selection functions under a use-availability design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Northrup, Joseph M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Anderson, Charles R.; Wittemyer, George

2013-01-01

Habitat selection is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, the understanding of which is critical to management and conservation. Global positioning system data from animals allow fine-scale assessments of habitat selection and typically are analyzed in a use-availability framework, whereby animal locations are contrasted with random locations (the availability sample). Although most use-availability methods are in fact spatial point process models, they often are fit using logistic regression. This framework offers numerous methodological challenges, for which the literature provides little guidance. Specifically, the size and spatial extent of the availability sample influences coefficient estimates potentially causing interpretational bias. We examined the influence of availability on statistical inference through simulations and analysis of serially correlated mule deer GPS data. Bias in estimates arose from incorrectly assessing and sampling the spatial extent of availability. Spatial autocorrelation in covariates, which is common for landscape characteristics, exacerbated the error in availability sampling leading to increased bias. These results have strong implications for habitat selection analyses using GPS data, which are increasingly prevalent in the literature. We recommend researchers assess the sensitivity of their results to their availability sample and, where bias is likely, take care with interpretations and use cross validation to assess robustness.

Respondent-Driven Sampling: An Assessment of Current Methodology.

PubMed

Gile, Krista J; Handcock, Mark S

2010-08-01

Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) employs a variant of a link-tracing network sampling strategy to collect data from hard-to-reach populations. By tracing the links in the underlying social network, the process exploits the social structure to expand the sample and reduce its dependence on the initial (convenience) sample.The current estimators of population averages make strong assumptions in order to treat the data as a probability sample. We evaluate three critical sensitivities of the estimators: to bias induced by the initial sample, to uncontrollable features of respondent behavior, and to the without-replacement structure of sampling.Our analysis indicates: (1) that the convenience sample of seeds can induce bias, and the number of sample waves typically used in RDS is likely insufficient for the type of nodal mixing required to obtain the reputed asymptotic unbiasedness; (2) that preferential referral behavior by respondents leads to bias; (3) that when a substantial fraction of the target population is sampled the current estimators can have substantial bias.This paper sounds a cautionary note for the users of RDS. While current RDS methodology is powerful and clever, the favorable statistical properties claimed for the current estimates are shown to be heavily dependent on often unrealistic assumptions. We recommend ways to improve the methodology.

Electronegative plasma diagnostic by laser photo-detachment combined with negatively biased Langmuir probe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudini, N.; Sirse, N.; Taccogna, F.; Ellingboe, A. R.; Bendib, A.

2018-05-01

We propose a new technique for diagnosing negative ion properties using Langmuir probe assisted pulsed laser photo-detachment. While the classical technique uses a laser pulse to convert negative ions into electron-atom pairs and a positively biased Langmuir probe tracking the change of electron saturation current, the proposed method uses a negatively biased Langmuir probe to track the temporal evolution of positive ion current. The negative bias aims to avoid the parasitic electron current inherent to probe tip surface ablation. In this work, we show through analytical and numerical approaches that, by knowing electron temperature and performing photo-detachment at two different laser wavelengths, it is possible to deduce plasma electronegativity (ratio of negative ion to electron densities) α, and anisothermicity (ratio of electron to negative ion temperatures) γ-. We present an analytical model that links the change in the collected positive ion current to plasma electronegativity and anisothermicity. Particle-In-Cell simulation is used as a numerical experiment covering a wide range of α and γ- to test the new analysis technique. The new technique is sensitive to α in the range 0.5 < α < 10 and yields γ- for large α, where negative ion flux affects the probe sheath behavior, typically α > 1.

Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

PubMed

Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

2016-10-18

Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

Age estimation of burbot using pectoral fin rays, brachiostegal rays, and otoliths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Throughout much of its native distribution, burbot (Lota lota) is a species of conservation concern. Understanding dynamic rate functions is critical for the effective management of sensitive burbot populations, which necessitates accurate and precise age estimates. Managing sensitive burbot populations requires an accurate and precise non-lethal alternative. In an effort to identify a non-lethal ageing structure, we compared the precision of age estimates obtained from otoliths, pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays from 208 burbot collected from the Green River drainage, Wyoming. Additionally, we compared the accuracy of age estimates from pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays to those of otoliths. Dorsal fin rays were immediately deemed a poor ageing structure and removed from further analysis. Age-bias plots of consensus ages derived from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were appreciably different from those obtained from otoliths. Exact agreement between readers and reader confidence was highest for otoliths and lowest for branchiostegal rays. Age-bias plots indicated that age estimates obtained from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were substantially different from age estimates obtained from otoliths. Our results indicate that otoliths provide the most precise age estimates for burbot.

Exposure to fluoride in drinking water and hip fracture risk: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Yin, Xin-Hai; Huang, Guang-Lei; Lin, Du-Ren; Wan, Cheng-Cheng; Wang, Ya-Dong; Song, Ju-Kun; Xu, Ping

2015-01-01

Many observational studies have shown that exposure to fluoride in drinking water is associated with hip fracture risk. However, the findings are varied or even contradictory. In this work, we performed a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between fluoride exposure and hip fracture risk. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify relevant observational studies from the time of inception until March 2014 without restrictions. Data from the included studies were extracted and analyzed by two authors. Summary relative risks (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random- or fixed-effects models as appropriate. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were conducted to explore possible explanations for heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed. Fourteen observational studies involving thirteen cohort studies and one case-control study were included in the meta-analysis. Exposure to fluoride in drinking water does not significantly increase the incidence of hip fracture (RRs, 1.05; 95% CIs, 0.96-1.15). Sensitivity analyses based on adjustment for covariates, effect measure, country, sex, sample size, quality of Newcastle-Ottawa Scale scores, and follow-up period validated the strength of the results. Meta-regression showed that country, gender, quality of Newcastle-Ottawa Scale scores, adjustment for covariates and sample size were not sources of heterogeneity. Little evidence of publication bias was observed. The present meta-analysis suggests that chronic fluoride exposure from drinking water does not significantly increase the risk of hip fracture. Given the potential confounding factors and exposure misclassification, further large-scale, high-quality studies are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to fluoride in drinking water and hip fracture risk.

Exposure to Fluoride in Drinking Water and Hip Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

Yin, Xin-Hai; Huang, Guang-Lei; Lin, Du-Ren; Wan, Cheng-Cheng; Wang, Ya-Dong; Song, Ju-Kun; Xu, Ping

2015-01-01

Background Many observational studies have shown that exposure to fluoride in drinking water is associated with hip fracture risk. However, the findings are varied or even contradictory. In this work, we performed a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between fluoride exposure and hip fracture risk. Methods PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify relevant observational studies from the time of inception until March 2014 without restrictions. Data from the included studies were extracted and analyzed by two authors. Summary relative risks (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random- or fixed-effects models as appropriate. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were conducted to explore possible explanations for heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed. Results Fourteen observational studies involving thirteen cohort studies and one case-control study were included in the meta-analysis. Exposure to fluoride in drinking water does not significantly increase the incidence of hip fracture (RRs, 1.05; 95% CIs, 0.96–1.15). Sensitivity analyses based on adjustment for covariates, effect measure, country, sex, sample size, quality of Newcastle–Ottawa Scale scores, and follow-up period validated the strength of the results. Meta-regression showed that country, gender, quality of Newcastle–Ottawa Scale scores, adjustment for covariates and sample size were not sources of heterogeneity. Little evidence of publication bias was observed. Conclusion The present meta-analysis suggests that chronic fluoride exposure from drinking water does not significantly increase the risk of hip fracture. Given the potential confounding factors and exposure misclassification, further large-scale, high-quality studies are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to fluoride in drinking water and hip fracture risk. PMID:26020536

Effect of numbering of return envelopes on participation, explicit refusals, and bias: experiment and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Tracing mail survey responses is useful for the management of reminders but may cause concerns about anonymity among prospective participants. We examined the impact of numbering return envelopes on the participation and the results of a survey on a sensitive topic among hospital staff. Methods In a survey about regrets associated with providing healthcare conducted among hospital-based doctors and nurses, two randomly drawn subsamples were provided numbered (N = 1100) and non-numbered (N = 500) envelopes for the return of completed questionnaires. Participation, explicit refusals, and item responses were compared. We also conducted a meta-analysis of the effect of questionnaire/envelope numbering on participation in health surveys. Results The participation rate was lower in the “numbered” group than in the “non-numbered” group (30.3% vs. 35.0%, p = 0.073), the proportion of explicit refusals was higher in the “numbered” group (23.1% vs 17.5%, p = 0.016), and the proportion of those who never returned the questionnaire was similar (46.6% vs 47.5%, p = 0.78). The means of responses differed significantly for 12 of 105 items (11.4%), which did not differ significantly from the expected frequency of type 1 errors, i.e., 5% (permutation test, p = 0.078). The meta-analysis of 7 experimental surveys (including this one) indicated that numbering is associated with a 2.4% decrease in the survey response rate (95% confidence interval 0.3% to 4.4%). Conclusions Numbered return envelopes may reduce the response rate and increase explicit refusals to participate in a sensitive survey. Reduced participation was confirmed by a meta-analysis of randomized health surveys. There was no strong evidence of bias. PMID:24428941

On uses, misuses and potential abuses of fractal analysis in zooplankton behavioral studies: A review, a critique and a few recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seuront, Laurent

2015-08-01

Fractal analysis is increasingly used to describe, and provide further understanding to, zooplankton swimming behavior. This may be related to the fact that fractal analysis and the related fractal dimension D have the desirable properties to be independent of measurement scale and to be very sensitive to even subtle behavioral changes that may be undetectable to other behavioral variables. As early claimed by Coughlin et al. (1992), this creates "the need for fractal analysis" in behavioral studies, which has hence the potential to become a valuable tool in zooplankton behavioral ecology. However, this paper stresses that fractal analysis, as well as the more elaborated multifractal analysis, is also a risky business that may lead to irrelevant results, without paying extreme attention to a series of both conceptual and practical steps that are all likely to bias the results of any analysis. These biases are reviewed and exemplified on the basis of the published literature, and remedial procedures are provided not only for geometric and stochastic fractal analyses, but also for the more complicated multifractal analysis. The concept of multifractals is finally introduced as a direct, objective and quantitative tool to identify models of motion behavior, such as Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, ballistic motion, Lévy flight/walk and multifractal random walk. I finally briefly review the state of this emerging field in zooplankton behavioral research.

Applying quantitative bias analysis to estimate the plausible effects of selection bias in a cluster randomised controlled trial: secondary analysis of the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST).

PubMed

Barnett, L A; Lewis, M; Mallen, C D; Peat, G

2017-12-04

Selection bias is a concern when designing cluster randomised controlled trials (c-RCT). Despite addressing potential issues at the design stage, bias cannot always be eradicated from a trial design. The application of bias analysis presents an important step forward in evaluating whether trial findings are credible. The aim of this paper is to give an example of the technique to quantify potential selection bias in c-RCTs. This analysis uses data from the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST). The primary aim of this trial was to test whether screening for anxiety and depression, and providing appropriate care for patients consulting their GP with osteoarthritis would improve clinical outcomes. Quantitative bias analysis is a seldom-used technique that can quantify types of bias present in studies. Due to lack of information on the selection probability, probabilistic bias analysis with a range of triangular distributions was also used, applied at all three follow-up time points; 3, 6, and 12 months post consultation. A simple bias analysis was also applied to the study. Worse pain outcomes were observed among intervention participants than control participants (crude odds ratio at 3, 6, and 12 months: 1.30 (95% CI 1.01, 1.67), 1.39 (1.07, 1.80), and 1.17 (95% CI 0.90, 1.53), respectively). Probabilistic bias analysis suggested that the observed effect became statistically non-significant if the selection probability ratio was between 1.2 and 1.4. Selection probability ratios of > 1.8 were needed to mask a statistically significant benefit of the intervention. The use of probabilistic bias analysis in this c-RCT suggested that worse outcomes observed in the intervention arm could plausibly be attributed to selection bias. A very large degree of selection of bias was needed to mask a beneficial effect of intervention making this interpretation less plausible.

The effectiveness of regionalization of perinatal care services--a systematic review.

PubMed

Rashidian, A; Omidvari, A H; Vali, Y; Mortaz, S; Yousefi-Nooraie, R; Jafari, M; Bhutta, Z A

2014-10-01

Several reports recommend the implementation of perinatal regionalization for improvements in maternal and neonatal outcomes, while research evidence on the effectiveness of perinatal regionalization has been limited. The interventional studies have been assessed for robust evidence on the effectiveness of perinatal regionalization on improving maternal and neonatal health outcomes. Bibliographic databases of Medline, EMbase, EconLit, HMIC have been searched using sensitive search terms for interventional studies that reported important patient or process outcomes. At least two authors assessed eligibility for inclusion and the risk of biases and extracted data from the included studies. As meta-analysis was not possible, a narrative analysis as well as a 'vote-counting' analysis has been conducted for important outcomes. After initial screenings 53 full text papers were retrieved. Eight studies were included in the review from the USA, Canada and France. Studies varied in their designs, and in the specifications of the intervention and setting. Only three interrupted time series studies had a low risk of bias, of which only one study reported significant reductions in neonatal and infant mortality. Studies of higher risk of bias were more likely to report improvements in outcomes. Implementing perinatal regionalization programs is correlated with improvements in perinatal outcomes, but it is not possible to establish a causal link. Despite several high profile policy statements, evidence of effect is weak. It is necessary to assess the effectiveness of perinatal regionalization using robust research designs in a more diverse range of countries.

Highly sensitive rotation sensing based on orthogonal fiber-optic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yi; Wang, Zi-nan; Xu, Lian-yu; Wang, Cui-yun; Jia, Lei; Yu, Xiao-qi; Shao, Shan; Li, Zheng-bin

2011-08-01

In traditional fiber-optic gyroscopes (FOG), the polarization state of counter propagating waves is critically controlled, and only the mode polarized along one particular direction survives. This is important for a traditional single mode fiber gyroscope as the requirement of reciprocity. However, there are some fatal defects such as low accuracy and poor bias stability in traditional structures. In this paper, based on the idea of polarization multiplexing, a double-polarization structure is put forward and experimentally studied. In highly birefringent fibers or standard single mode fibers with induced anisotropy, two orthogonal polarization modes can be used at the same time. Therefore, in polarization maintaining fibers (PMF), each pair of counter propagating beams preserve reciprocity within their own polarization state. Two series of sensing results are gotten in the fast and slow axes in PMF. The two sensing results have their own systematic drifts and the correlation of random noise in them is approximately zero. So, beams in fast and slow axes work as two independent and orthogonal gyroscopes. In this way, amount of information is doubled, providing opportunity to eliminate noise and improve sensitivity. Theoretically, this double-polarization structure can achieve a sensitivity of 10-18 deg/h. Computer simulation demonstrates that random noise and systematic drifts are largely reduced in this novel structure. In experiment, a forty-hour stability test targeting the earth's rotation velocity is carried out. Experiment result shows that the orthogonal fiber-optic structure has two big advantages compared with traditional ones. Firstly, the structure gets true value without any bias correction in any axis and even time-varying bias does not affect the acquisition of true value. The unbiasedness makes the structure very attractive when sudden disturbances or temperature drifts existing in working environment. Secondly, the structure lowers bias for more than two orders and enhances bias stability for an order higher (compared with single axis result), achieving a bias stability of 0.01 deg/h. The evidences from all aspects convincingly show that the orthogonal fiber-optic structure is robust against environmental disturbance and material defects, achieving high stability and sensitivity.

Diagnostic Performance of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid CD4/CD8 Ratio for Sarcoidosis: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Yongchun; Pang, Caishuang; Wu, Yanqiu; Li, Diandian; Wan, Chun; Liao, Zenglin; Yang, Ting; Chen, Lei; Wen, Fuqiang

2016-06-01

The usefulness of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) CD4/CD8 ratio for diagnosing sarcoidosis has been reported in many studies with variable results. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate the overall diagnostic accuracy of BALF CD4/CD8 ratio based on the bulk of published evidence. Studies published prior to June 2015 and indexed in PubMed, OVID, Web of Science, Scopus and other databases were evaluated for inclusion. Data on sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were pooled from included studies. Summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were used to summarize overall test performance. Deeks's funnel plot was used to detect publication bias. Sixteen publications with 1885 subjects met our inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. Summary estimates of the diagnostic performance of the BALF CD4/CD8 ratio were as follows: sensitivity, 0.70 (95%CI 0.64-0.75); specificity, 0.83 (95%CI 0.78-0.86); PLR, 4.04 (95%CI 3.13-5.20); NLR, 0.36 (95%CI 0.30-0.44); and DOR, 11.17 (95%CI 7.31-17.07). The area under the SROC curve was 0.84 (95%CI 0.81-0.87). There was no evidence of publication bias. Measuring the BALF CD4/CD8 ratio may assist in the diagnosis of sarcoidosis when interpreted in parallel with other diagnostic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Attempt to Target Anxiety Sensitivity via Cognitive Bias Modification

PubMed Central

Clerkin, Elise M.; Beard, Courtney; Fisher, Christopher R.; Schofield, Casey A

2015-01-01

Our goals in the present study were to test an adaptation of a Cognitive Bias Modification program to reduce anxiety sensitivity, and to evaluate the causal relationships between interpretation bias of physiological cues, anxiety sensitivity, and anxiety and avoidance associated with interoceptive exposures. Participants with elevated anxiety sensitivity who endorsed having a panic attack or limited symptom attack were randomly assigned to either an Interpretation Modification Program (IMP; n = 33) or a Control (n = 32) condition. During interpretation modification training (via the Word Sentence Association Paradigm), participants read short sentences describing ambiguous panic-relevant physiological and cognitive symptoms and were trained to endorse benign interpretations and reject threatening interpretations associated with these cues. Compared to the Control condition, IMP training successfully increased endorsements of benign interpretations and decreased endorsements of threatening interpretations at visit 2. Although self-reported anxiety sensitivity decreased from pre-selection to visit 1 and from visit 1 to visit 2, the reduction was not larger for the experimental versus control condition. Further, participants in IMP (vs. Control) training did not experience less anxiety and avoidance associated with interoceptive exposures. In fact, there was some evidence that those in the Control condition experienced less avoidance following training. Potential explanations for the null findings, including problems with the benign panic-relevant stimuli and limitations with the control condition, are discussed. PMID:25692491

An attempt to target anxiety sensitivity via cognitive bias modification.

PubMed

Clerkin, Elise M; Beard, Courtney; Fisher, Christopher R; Schofield, Casey A

2015-01-01

Our goals in the present study were to test an adaptation of a Cognitive Bias Modification program to reduce anxiety sensitivity, and to evaluate the causal relationships between interpretation bias of physiological cues, anxiety sensitivity, and anxiety and avoidance associated with interoceptive exposures. Participants with elevated anxiety sensitivity who endorsed having a panic attack or limited symptom attack were randomly assigned to either an Interpretation Modification Program (IMP; n = 33) or a Control (n = 32) condition. During interpretation modification training (via the Word Sentence Association Paradigm), participants read short sentences describing ambiguous panic-relevant physiological and cognitive symptoms and were trained to endorse benign interpretations and reject threatening interpretations associated with these cues. Compared to the Control condition, IMP training successfully increased endorsements of benign interpretations and decreased endorsements of threatening interpretations at visit 2. Although self-reported anxiety sensitivity decreased from pre-selection to visit 1 and from visit 1 to visit 2, the reduction was not larger for the experimental versus control condition. Further, participants in IMP (vs. Control) training did not experience less anxiety and avoidance associated with interoceptive exposures. In fact, there was some evidence that those in the Control condition experienced less avoidance following training. Potential explanations for the null findings, including problems with the benign panic-relevant stimuli and limitations with the control condition, are discussed.

Diagnostic accuracy of imaging devices in glaucoma: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fallon, Monica; Valero, Oliver; Pazos, Marta; Antón, Alfonso

Imaging devices such as the Heidelberg retinal tomograph-3 (HRT3), scanning laser polarimetry (GDx), and optical coherence tomography (OCT) play an important role in glaucoma diagnosis. A systematic search for evidence-based data was performed for prospective studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of HRT3, GDx, and OCT. The diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was calculated. To compare the accuracy among instruments and parameters, a meta-analysis considering the hierarchical summary receiver-operating characteristic model was performed. The risk of bias was assessed using quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies, version 2. Studies in the context of screening programs were used for qualitative analysis. Eighty-six articles were included. The DOR values were 29.5 for OCT, 18.6 for GDx, and 13.9 for HRT. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrated statistically a significant influence of degree of damage and ethnicity. Studies analyzing patients with earlier glaucoma showed poorer results. The risk of bias was high for patient selection. Screening studies showed lower sensitivity values and similar specificity values when compared with those included in the meta-analysis. The classification capabilities of GDx, HRT, and OCT were high and similar across the 3 instruments. The highest estimated DOR was obtained with OCT. Diagnostic accuracy could be overestimated in studies including prediagnosed groups of subjects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between the SERPINE1 (PAI-1) 4G/5G insertion/deletion promoter polymorphism (rs1799889) and pre-eclampsia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Linlu; Bracken, Michael B; Dewan, Andrew T; Chen, Suzan

2013-03-01

The SERPINE1 -675 4G/5G promoter region insertion/deletion polymorphism (rs1799889) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia (PE), but the genetic association has been inconsistently replicated. To derive a more precise estimate of the association, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted. This study conformed to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. PubMed (MEDLINE), Scopus and HuGE Literature Finder literature databases were systematically searched for relevant studies. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the allelic comparison (4G versus 5G) and genotypic comparisons following the co-dominant (4G/4G versus 5G/5G and 4G/5G versus 5G/5G), dominant (4G/4G+4G/5G versus 5G/5G) and recessive (4G/4G versus 4G/5G+5G/5G) genetic models. Between-study heterogeneity was quantified by I(2) statistics and publication bias was appraised with funnel plots. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the robustness of meta-analysis findings. Meta-analysis of 11 studies involving 1297 PE cases and 1791 controls found a significant association between the SERPINE1 -675 4G/5G polymorphism and PE for the recessive genetic model (OR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.13-1.64, P = 0.001), a robust finding according to sensitivity analysis. A low level of between-study heterogeneity was detected (I(2) = 20%) in this comparison, which may be explained by ethnic differences. Funnel plot inspection did not reveal evidence of publication bias. In conclusion, this study provides a comprehensive examination of the available literature on the association between SERPINE1 -675 4G/5G and PE. Meta-analysis results support this polymorphism as a likely susceptibility variant for PE.

Evaluation of nucleated red blood cell count by Sysmex XE-2100 in patients with thalassaemia or sickle cell anaemia and in neonates.

PubMed

Buoro, Sabrina; Vavassori, Mauro; Pipitone, Silvia; Benegiamo, Anna; Lochis, Eleonora; Fumagalli, Sabina; Falanga, Anna; Marchetti, Marina; Crippa, Alberto; Ottomano, Cosimo; Lippi, Giuseppe

2015-10-01

Current haematology analysers have variable sensitivity and accuracy for counting nucleated red blood cells in samples with low values and in all those conditions characterised by altered sensitivity of red blood cells to the lysing process, such as in beta-thalassaemia or sickle-cell diseases and in neonates. The aim of our study was to evaluate the performance of the automated analyser XE-2100 at counting nucleated red blood cells in the above-mentioned three categories of subjects with potentially altered red blood cell lysis sensitivity and yet a need for accurate nucleated red blood cell counts. We measured nucleated red blood cell count by XE-2100 in peripheral blood samples of 187 subjects comprising 55 patients with beta-thalassaemia (40 major and 15 traits), 26 sickle-cell patients, 56 neonates and 50 normal subject. Results were compared with those obtained by optical microscopy. Agreement between average values of the two methods was estimated by means of Pearson's correlation and bias analysis, whereas diagnostic accuracy was estimated by analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves. The comparison between the two methods showed a Pearson's correlation of 0.99 (95% CI; 0.98-0.99; p<0.001) and bias of -0.61 (95% CI, -1.5-0.3). The area under the curve of the nucleated red blood cell count in all samples was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96-1.00; p<0.001). Sub-analysis revealed an area under curve of 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-1.00; p<0.001) for patients with thalassaemia, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.85-1.00; p<0.001) for patients with sickle cell anaemia, and 1.00 (95% CI, 1.0-1.0) for neonates. XE-2100 has excellent performance for nucleated red blood cell counting, especially in critical populations such as patients with haemoglobinopathies and neonates.

EZSCAN for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio; Ruiz-Alejos, Andrea; Miranda, J Jaime; Mathur, Rohini; Perel, Pablo; Smeeth, Liam

2017-01-01

The EZSCAN is a non-invasive device that, by evaluating sweat gland function, may detect subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of the study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis including studies assessing the performance of the EZSCAN for detecting cases of undiagnosed T2DM. We searched for observational studies including diagnostic accuracy and performance results assessing EZSCAN for detecting cases of undiagnosed T2DM. OVID (Medline, Embase, Global Health), CINAHL and SCOPUS databases, plus secondary resources, were searched until March 29, 2017. The following keywords were utilized for the systematic searching: type 2 diabetes mellitus, hyperglycemia, EZSCAN, SUDOSCAN, and sudomotor function. Two investigators extracted the information for meta-analysis and assessed the quality of the data using the Revised Version of the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) checklist. Pooled estimates were obtained by fitting the logistic-normal random-effects model without covariates but random intercepts and using the Freeman-Tukey Arcsine Transformation to stabilize variances. Heterogeneity was also assessed using the I2 measure. Four studies (n = 7,720) were included, three of them used oral glucose tolerance test as the gold standard. Using Hierarchical Summary Receiver Operating Characteristic model, summary sensitivity was 72.0% (95%CI: 60.0%- 83.0%), whereas specificity was 56.0% (95%CI: 38.0%- 74.0%). Studies were very heterogeneous (I2 for sensitivity: 79.2% and for specificity: 99.1%) regarding the inclusion criteria and bias was present mainly due to participants selection. The sensitivity of EZSCAN for detecting cases of undiagnosed T2DM seems to be acceptable, but evidence of high heterogeneity and participant selection bias was detected in most of the studies included. More studies are needed to evaluate the performance of the EZSCAN for undiagnosed T2DM screening, especially at the population level.

Diagnostic accuracy of nucleic acid amplification based assays for tuberculous meningitis: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gupta, Renu; Talwar, Puneet; Talwar, Pumanshi; Khurana, Sarbjeet; Kushwaha, Suman; Jalan, Nupur; Thakur, Rajeev

2018-05-25

Numerous in-house and commercial nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT) have been evaluated using variable reference standards for diagnosis of TBM but their diagnostic potential is still not very clear. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the diagnostic accuracy of different NAAT based assays for diagnosing TBM against 43 data sets of confirmed TBM (n = 1066) and 61 data sets of suspected TBM (n = 3721) as two reference standards. The summary estimate of the sensitivity and the specificity were obtained using the bivariate model. QUADAS-2 tool was used to perform the Quality assessment for bias and applicability. Publication bias was assessed with Deeks' funnel plot. Studies with confirmed TBM had better summary estimates as compared to studies with clinically suspected TBM irrespective of NAAT and index tests used. Among in-house assays, MPB as the gene target had best summary estimates in both confirmed [sensitivity:90%(83-95), specificity:97-%(87-99), DOR:247 (50-1221), AUC:99%(97-100), PLR:38.8-(6.6-133), NLR:0.11(0.05-0.18), I 2   = 15%] and clinically suspected [sensitivity:69%(47-85), specificity:96%(90-98), DOR:62(16.8-232), AUC:94%(92-97), PLR:16.9(6.5-36.8), NLR:0.33(0.16-0.56), I 2 :15.3%] groups. GeneXpert revealed good diagnostic accuracy only in confirmed TBM group [sensitivity = 57%(38-74), specificity = 98%(89-100), DOR = 62(7-589), AUC = 87%(79-96), PLR = 33.2(3.8-128), NLR = 0.45(0.26-0.68), I 2   = 0%]. This meta-analysis identified potential role of MPB gene among in-house assays and GeneXpert as commercial assay for diagnosing TBM. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Chewing Stimulation Reduces Appetite Ratings and Attentional Bias toward Visual Food Stimuli in Healthy-Weight Individuals.

PubMed

Ikeda, Akitsu; Miyamoto, Jun J; Usui, Nobuo; Taira, Masato; Moriyama, Keiji

2018-01-01

Based on the theory of incentive sensitization, the exposure to food stimuli sensitizes the brain's reward circuits and enhances attentional bias toward food. Therefore, reducing attentional bias to food could possibly be beneficial in preventing impulsive eating. The importance of chewing has been increasingly implicated as one of the methods for reducing appetite, however, no studies to investigate the effect of chewing on attentional bias to food. In this study, we investigated whether chewing stimulation (i.e., chewing tasteless gum) reduces attentional bias to food as well as an actual feeding (i.e., ingesting a standardized meal) does. We measured reaction time, gaze direction and gaze duration to assess attentional bias toward food images in pairs of food and non-food images that were presented in a visual probe task (Experiment 1, n = 21) and/or eye-tracking task (Experiment 2, n = 20). We also measured appetite ratings using visual analog scale. In addition, we conducted a control study in which the same number of participants performed the identical tasks to Experiments 1 and 2, but the participants did not perform sham feeding with gum-chewing/actual feeding between tasks and they took a rest. Two-way ANOVA revealed that after actual feeding, subjective ratings of hunger, preoccupation with food, and desire to eat significantly decreased, whereas fullness significantly increased. Sham feeding showed the same trends, but to a lesser degree. Results of the visual probe task in Experiment 1 showed that both sham feeding and actual feeding reduced reaction time bias significantly. Eye-tracking data showed that both sham and actual feeding resulted in significant reduction in gaze direction bias, indexing initial attentional orientation. Gaze duration bias was unaffected. In both control experiments, one-way ANOVAs showed no significant differences between immediately before and after the resting state for any of the appetite ratings, reaction time bias, gaze direction bias, or gaze duration bias. In conclusion, chewing stimulation reduced subjective appetite and attentional bias to food, particularly initial attentional orientation to food. These findings suggest that chewing stimulation, even without taste, odor, or ingestion, may affect reward circuits and help prevent impulsive eating.

Chewing Stimulation Reduces Appetite Ratings and Attentional Bias toward Visual Food Stimuli in Healthy-Weight Individuals

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Akitsu; Miyamoto, Jun J.; Usui, Nobuo; Taira, Masato; Moriyama, Keiji

2018-01-01

Based on the theory of incentive sensitization, the exposure to food stimuli sensitizes the brain’s reward circuits and enhances attentional bias toward food. Therefore, reducing attentional bias to food could possibly be beneficial in preventing impulsive eating. The importance of chewing has been increasingly implicated as one of the methods for reducing appetite, however, no studies to investigate the effect of chewing on attentional bias to food. In this study, we investigated whether chewing stimulation (i.e., chewing tasteless gum) reduces attentional bias to food as well as an actual feeding (i.e., ingesting a standardized meal) does. We measured reaction time, gaze direction and gaze duration to assess attentional bias toward food images in pairs of food and non-food images that were presented in a visual probe task (Experiment 1, n = 21) and/or eye-tracking task (Experiment 2, n = 20). We also measured appetite ratings using visual analog scale. In addition, we conducted a control study in which the same number of participants performed the identical tasks to Experiments 1 and 2, but the participants did not perform sham feeding with gum-chewing/actual feeding between tasks and they took a rest. Two-way ANOVA revealed that after actual feeding, subjective ratings of hunger, preoccupation with food, and desire to eat significantly decreased, whereas fullness significantly increased. Sham feeding showed the same trends, but to a lesser degree. Results of the visual probe task in Experiment 1 showed that both sham feeding and actual feeding reduced reaction time bias significantly. Eye-tracking data showed that both sham and actual feeding resulted in significant reduction in gaze direction bias, indexing initial attentional orientation. Gaze duration bias was unaffected. In both control experiments, one-way ANOVAs showed no significant differences between immediately before and after the resting state for any of the appetite ratings, reaction time bias, gaze direction bias, or gaze duration bias. In conclusion, chewing stimulation reduced subjective appetite and attentional bias to food, particularly initial attentional orientation to food. These findings suggest that chewing stimulation, even without taste, odor, or ingestion, may affect reward circuits and help prevent impulsive eating. PMID:29472880

d'plus: A program to calculate accuracy and bias measures from detection and discrimination data.

PubMed

Macmillan, N A; Creelman, C D

1997-01-01

The program d'plus calculates accuracy (sensitivity) and response-bias parameters using Signal Detection Theory. Choice Theory, and 'nonparametric' models. is is appropriate for data from one-interval, two- and three-interval forced-choice, same different, ABX, and oddity experimental paradigms.

The Use of an Enhanced Polygraph Scoring Technique in Homeland Security: The Empirical Scoring System-Making a Difference

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

confidence rating (p value) (Macmillan, & Creelman , 1996). More specifically, as response bias relates to polygraph scoring, the development of the...Macmillan, N., & Creelman , C. (1996). Triangles in ROC space: History and theory of “nonparametric” measures of sensitivity and response bias

The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance.

PubMed

Kepes, Sven; McDaniel, Michael A

2015-01-01

Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation.

The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Introduction Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. Methods To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Results Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. Conclusion The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation. PMID:26517553

Sensitivity of the summertime tropical Atlantic precipitation distribution to convective parameterization and model resolution in ECHAM6

DOE PAGES

Siongco, Angela Cheska; Hohenegger, Cathy; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-02-09

A realistic simulation of the tropical Atlantic precipitation distribution remains a challenge for atmospheric general circulation models, owing to their too coarse resolution that makes it necessary to parameterize convection. During boreal summer, models tend to underestimate the northward shift of the tropical Atlantic rain belt, leading to deficient precipitation over land and an anomalous precipitation maximum over the west Atlantic ocean. In this study, the model ECHAM6 is used to test the sensitivity of the precipitation biases to convective parameterization and horizontal resolution. Two sets of sensitivity experiments are performed. In the first set of experiments, modifications are appliedmore » to the convection scheme in order to investigate the relative roles of the trigger, entrainment, and closure formulations. In the second set, the model is run at high resolution with low-resolution boundary conditions in order to identify the relative contributions of a high-resolution atmosphere, orography, and surface. Results show that the dry bias over land in the model can be reduced by weakening the entrainment rate over land. Over ocean, it is found that the anomalous precipitation maximum occurs because of model choices that decrease the sensitivity of convection to the monsoon circulation in the east Atlantic. A reduction of the west Atlantic precipitation bias can be achieved by (i) using a moisture convergence closure, (ii) increasing the resolution of orography, or (iii) enhancing the production of deep convection in the east Atlantic. As a result, the biases over land and over ocean do not impact each other.« less

The choice of prior distribution for a covariance matrix in multivariate meta-analysis: a simulation study.

PubMed

Hurtado Rúa, Sandra M; Mazumdar, Madhu; Strawderman, Robert L

2015-12-30

Bayesian meta-analysis is an increasingly important component of clinical research, with multivariate meta-analysis a promising tool for studies with multiple endpoints. Model assumptions, including the choice of priors, are crucial aspects of multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis (MBMA) models. In a given model, two different prior distributions can lead to different inferences about a particular parameter. A simulation study was performed in which the impact of families of prior distributions for the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal random effects MBMA model was analyzed. Inferences about effect sizes were not particularly sensitive to prior choice, but the related covariance estimates were. A few families of prior distributions with small relative biases, tight mean squared errors, and close to nominal coverage for the effect size estimates were identified. Our results demonstrate the need for sensitivity analysis and suggest some guidelines for choosing prior distributions in this class of problems. The MBMA models proposed here are illustrated in a small meta-analysis example from the periodontal field and a medium meta-analysis from the study of stroke. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing using cell-free DNA for detection of Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Taylor-Phillips, Sian; Freeman, Karoline; Geppert, Julia; Agbebiyi, Adeola; Uthman, Olalekan A; Madan, Jason; Clarke, Angus; Quenby, Siobhan; Clarke, Aileen

2016-01-18

To measure test accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes using cell-free fetal DNA and identify factors affecting accuracy. Systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies. PubMed, Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase and the Cochrane Library published from 1997 to 9 February 2015, followed by weekly autoalerts until 1 April 2015. English language journal articles describing case-control studies with ≥ 15 trisomy cases or cohort studies with ≥ 50 pregnant women who had been given NIPT and a reference standard. 41, 37 and 30 studies of 2012 publications retrieved were included in the review for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes. Quality appraisal identified high risk of bias in included studies, funnel plots showed evidence of publication bias. Pooled sensitivity was 99.3% (95% CI 98.9% to 99.6%) for Down, 97.4% (95.8% to 98.4%) for Edwards, and 97.4% (86.1% to 99.6%) for Patau syndrome. The pooled specificity was 99.9% (99.9% to 100%) for all three trisomies. In 100,000 pregnancies in the general obstetric population we would expect 417, 89 and 40 cases of Downs, Edwards and Patau syndromes to be detected by NIPT, with 94, 154 and 42 false positive results. Sensitivity was lower in twin than singleton pregnancies, reduced by 9% for Down, 28% for Edwards and 22% for Patau syndrome. Pooled sensitivity was also lower in the first trimester of pregnancy, in studies in the general obstetric population, and in cohort studies with consecutive enrolment. NIPT using cell-free fetal DNA has very high sensitivity and specificity for Down syndrome, with slightly lower sensitivity for Edwards and Patau syndrome. However, it is not 100% accurate and should not be used as a final diagnosis for positive cases. CRD42014014947. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Early Diagnostic Performance of Heart-Type Fatty Acid Binding Protein in Suspected Acute Myocardial Infarction: Evidence From a Meta-Analysis of Contemporary Studies.

PubMed

Xu, Li-Qian; Yang, Yun-Mei; Tong, Hong; Xu, Chang-Fu

2018-04-01

Although cardiac troponin is the cornerstone in diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), the accuracy is still suboptimal in the early hours after chest pain onset. Due to its small size, heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) has been reported accurate in diagnosis of AMI, however, this remains undetermined. The aim is to investigate the diagnostic performance of H-FABP alone and in conjunction with high-sensitivity troponin (hs-Tn) within 6 hours of symptom onset. Furthermore, accuracy in 0h/3h algorithm was also assessed. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched; sensitivity, specificity and area under ROC curve (AUC) were used as measures of the diagnostic accuracy. We pooled data on bivariate modelling, threshold effect and publication bias was applied for heterogeneity analysis. Twenty-two studies with 6602 populations were included, pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUC of H-FABP were 0.75 (0.68-0.81), 0.81 (0.75-0.86) and 0.85 (0.82-0.88) within 6 hours. Similar sensitivity (0.76, 0.69-0.82), specificity (0.80, 0.71-0.87) and AUC (0.85, 0.82-0.88) of H-FABP were observed in 4185 (63%) patients in 0h/3h algorithm. The additional use of H-FABP improved the sensitivity of hs-Tn alone but worsened its specificity (all p<0.001), and resulted in no improvement of AUC (p>0.99). There was no threshold effect (p=0.18) and publication bias (p=0.31) in this study. H-FABP has modest accuracy for early diagnosis of AMI within 3 and 6 hours of symptom onset. The incremental value of H-FABP seemed much smaller and was of uncertain clinical significance in addition to hs-Tn in patients with suspected AMI. Routine use of H-FABP in early presentation does not seem warranted. Copyright © 2017 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of computed tomographic features in differentiating intestinal tuberculosis from Crohn's disease: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kedia, Saurabh; Sharma, Raju; Sreenivas, Vishnubhatla; Madhusudhan, Kumble Seetharama; Sharma, Vishal; Bopanna, Sawan; Pratap Mouli, Venigalla; Dhingra, Rajan; Yadav, Dawesh Prakash; Makharia, Govind; Ahuja, Vineet

2017-04-01

Abdominal computed tomography (CT) can noninvasively image the entire gastrointestinal tract and assess extraintestinal features that are important in differentiating Crohn's disease (CD) and intestinal tuberculosis (ITB). The present meta-analysis pooled the results of all studies on the role of CT abdomen in differentiating between CD and ITB. We searched PubMed and Embase for all publications in English that analyzed the features differentiating between CD and ITB on abdominal CT. The features included comb sign, necrotic lymph nodes, asymmetric bowel wall thickening, skip lesions, fibrofatty proliferation, mural stratification, ileocaecal area, long segment, and left colonic involvements. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated for all the features. Symmetric receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted for features present in >3 studies. Heterogeneity and publication bias was assessed and sensitivity analysis was performed by excluding studies that compared features on conventional abdominal CT instead of CT enterography (CTE). We included 6 studies (4 CTE, 1 conventional abdominal CT, and 1 CTE+conventional abdominal CT) involving 417 and 195 patients with CD and ITB, respectively. Necrotic lymph nodes had the highest diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity, 23%; specificity, 100%; DOR, 30.2) for ITB diagnosis, and comb sign (sensitivity, 82%; specificity, 81%; DOR, 21.5) followed by skip lesions (sensitivity, 86%; specificity, 74%; DOR, 16.5) had the highest diagnostic accuracy for CD diagnosis. On sensitivity analysis, the diagnostic accuracy of other features excluding asymmetric bowel wall thickening remained similar. Necrotic lymph nodes and comb sign on abdominal CT had the best diagnostic accuracy in differentiating CD and ITB.

Effect of liquid gate bias rising time in pH sensors based on Si nanowire ion sensitive field effect transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Jungkyu; Choi, Sungju; Kim, Jungmok; Park, Tae Jung; Park, Byung-Gook; Kim, Dong Myong; Choi, Sung-Jin; Lee, Seung Min; Kim, Dae Hwan; Mo, Hyun-Sun

2018-02-01

In this study, we investigate the effect of rising time (TR) of liquid gate bias (VLG) on transient responses in pH sensors based on Si nanowire ion-sensitive field-effect transistors (ISFETs). As TR becomes shorter and pH values decrease, the ISFET current takes a longer time to saturate to the pH-dependent steady-state value. By correlating VLG with the internal gate-to-source voltage of the ISFET, we found that this effect occurs when the drift/diffusion of mobile ions in analytes in response to VLG is delayed. This gives us useful insight on the design of ISFET-based point-of-care circuits and systems, particularly with respect to determining an appropriate rising time for the liquid gate bias.

Ultrasonography in diagnosing clinically occult groin hernia: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kwee, Robert M; Kwee, Thomas C

2018-05-14

To provide an updated systematic review on the performance of ultrasonography (US) in diagnosing clinically occult groin hernia. A systematic search was performed in MEDLINE and Embase. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed. Accuracy data of US in detecting clinically occult groin hernia were extracted. Positive predictive value (PPV) was pooled with a random effects model. For studies investigating the performance of US in hernia type classification (inguinal vs femoral), correctly classified proportion was assessed. Sixteen studies were included. In the two studies without verification bias, sensitivities were 29.4% [95% confidence interval (CI), 15.1-47.5%] and 90.9% (95% CI, 70.8-98.9%); specificities were 90.0% (95% CI, 80.5-95.9%) and 90.6% (95% CI, 83.0-95.6%). Verification bias or a variation of it (i.e. study limited to only subjects with definitive proof of disease status) was present in all other studies. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value (NPV) were not pooled. PPV ranged from 58.8 to 100%. Pooled PPV, based on data from ten studies with low risk of bias and no applicability concerns with respect to patient selection, was 85.6% (95% CI, 76.5-92.7%). Proportion of correctly classified hernias, based on data from four studies, ranged between 94.4% and 99.1%. Sensitivity, specificity and NPV of US in detecting clinically occult groin hernia cannot reliably be determined based on current evidence. Further studies are necessary. Accuracy may strongly depend on the examiner's skills. PPV is high. Inguinal and femoral hernias can reliably be differentiated by US. • Sensitivity, specificity and NPV of ultrasound in detecting clinically occult groin hernia cannot reliably be determined based on current evidence. • Accuracy may strongly depend on the examiner's skills. • PPV of US in detection of clinically occult groin hernia is high [pooled PPV of 85.6% (95% confidence interval, 76.5-92.7%)]. • US has very high performance in correctly differentiating between clinically occult inguinal and femoral hernia (correctness of 94.4- 99.1%).

Highly sensitive optically controlled tunable capacitor and photodetector based on a metal-insulator-semiconductor on silicon-on-insulator substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhelashvili, V.; Cristea, D.; Meyler, B.; Yofis, S.; Shneider, Y.; Atiya, G.; Cohen-Hyams, T.; Kauffmann, Y.; Kaplan, W. D.; Eisenstein, G.

2015-01-01

We describe a new type of optically sensitive tunable capacitor with a wide band response ranging from the ultraviolet (245 nm) to the near infrared (880 nm). It is based on a planar Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (MOS) structure fabricated on an insulator on silicon substrate where the insulator layer comprises a double layer dielectric stack of SiO2-HfO2. Two operating configurations have been examined, a single diode and a pair of back-to-back connected devices, where either one or both diodes are illuminated. The varactors exhibit, in all cases, very large sensitivities to illumination. Near zero bias, the capacitance dependence on illumination intensity is sub linear and otherwise it is nearly linear. In the back-to-back connected configuration, the reverse biased diode acts as a light tunable resistor whose value affects strongly the capacitance of the second, forward biased, diode and vice versa. The proposed device is superior to other optical varactors in its large sensitivity to illumination in a very broad wavelength range (245 nm-880 nm), the strong capacitance dependence on voltage and the superior current photo responsivity. Above and beyond that structure requires a very simple fabrication process which is CMOS compatible.

Giant spin-torque diode sensitivity in the absence of bias magnetic field.

PubMed

Fang, Bin; Carpentieri, Mario; Hao, Xiaojie; Jiang, Hongwen; Katine, Jordan A; Krivorotov, Ilya N; Ocker, Berthold; Langer, Juergen; Wang, Kang L; Zhang, Baoshun; Azzerboni, Bruno; Amiri, Pedram Khalili; Finocchio, Giovanni; Zeng, Zhongming

2016-04-07

Microwave detectors based on the spin-torque diode effect are among the key emerging spintronic devices. By utilizing the spin of electrons in addition to charge, they have the potential to overcome the theoretical performance limits of their semiconductor (Schottky) counterparts. However, so far, practical implementations of spin-diode microwave detectors have been limited by the necessity to apply a magnetic field. Here, we demonstrate nanoscale magnetic tunnel junction microwave detectors, exhibiting high-detection sensitivity of 75,400 mV mW(-1) at room temperature without any external bias fields, and for low-input power (micro-Watts or lower). This sensitivity is significantly larger than both state-of-the-art Schottky diode detectors and existing spintronic diodes. Micromagnetic simulations and measurements reveal the essential role of injection locking to achieve this sensitivity performance. This mechanism may provide a pathway to enable further performance improvement of spin-torque diode microwave detectors.

Giant spin-torque diode sensitivity in the absence of bias magnetic field

PubMed Central

Fang, Bin; Carpentieri, Mario; Hao, Xiaojie; Jiang, Hongwen; Katine, Jordan A.; Krivorotov, Ilya N.; Ocker, Berthold; Langer, Juergen; Wang, Kang L.; Zhang, Baoshun; Azzerboni, Bruno; Amiri, Pedram Khalili; Finocchio, Giovanni; Zeng, Zhongming

2016-01-01

Microwave detectors based on the spin-torque diode effect are among the key emerging spintronic devices. By utilizing the spin of electrons in addition to charge, they have the potential to overcome the theoretical performance limits of their semiconductor (Schottky) counterparts. However, so far, practical implementations of spin-diode microwave detectors have been limited by the necessity to apply a magnetic field. Here, we demonstrate nanoscale magnetic tunnel junction microwave detectors, exhibiting high-detection sensitivity of 75,400 mV mW−1 at room temperature without any external bias fields, and for low-input power (micro-Watts or lower). This sensitivity is significantly larger than both state-of-the-art Schottky diode detectors and existing spintronic diodes. Micromagnetic simulations and measurements reveal the essential role of injection locking to achieve this sensitivity performance. This mechanism may provide a pathway to enable further performance improvement of spin-torque diode microwave detectors. PMID:27052973

Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

2011-10-01

The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

Correcting power and p-value calculations for bias in diffusion tensor imaging.

PubMed

Lauzon, Carolyn B; Landman, Bennett A

2013-07-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) provides quantitative parametric maps sensitive to tissue microarchitecture (e.g., fractional anisotropy, FA). These maps are estimated through computational processes and subject to random distortions including variance and bias. Traditional statistical procedures commonly used for study planning (including power analyses and p-value/alpha-rate thresholds) specifically model variability, but neglect potential impacts of bias. Herein, we quantitatively investigate the impacts of bias in DTI on hypothesis test properties (power and alpha-rate) using a two-sided hypothesis testing framework. We present theoretical evaluation of bias on hypothesis test properties, evaluate the bias estimation technique SIMEX for DTI hypothesis testing using simulated data, and evaluate the impacts of bias on spatially varying power and alpha rates in an empirical study of 21 subjects. Bias is shown to inflame alpha rates, distort the power curve, and cause significant power loss even in empirical settings where the expected difference in bias between groups is zero. These adverse effects can be attenuated by properly accounting for bias in the calculation of power and p-values. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic bias in genomic classification due to contaminating non-neoplastic tissue in breast tumor samples.

PubMed

Elloumi, Fathi; Hu, Zhiyuan; Li, Yan; Parker, Joel S; Gulley, Margaret L; Amos, Keith D; Troester, Melissa A

2011-06-30

Genomic tests are available to predict breast cancer recurrence and to guide clinical decision making. These predictors provide recurrence risk scores along with a measure of uncertainty, usually a confidence interval. The confidence interval conveys random error and not systematic bias. Standard tumor sampling methods make this problematic, as it is common to have a substantial proportion (typically 30-50%) of a tumor sample comprised of histologically benign tissue. This "normal" tissue could represent a source of non-random error or systematic bias in genomic classification. To assess the performance characteristics of genomic classification to systematic error from normal contamination, we collected 55 tumor samples and paired tumor-adjacent normal tissue. Using genomic signatures from the tumor and paired normal, we evaluated how increasing normal contamination altered recurrence risk scores for various genomic predictors. Simulations of normal tissue contamination caused misclassification of tumors in all predictors evaluated, but different breast cancer predictors showed different types of vulnerability to normal tissue bias. While two predictors had unpredictable direction of bias (either higher or lower risk of relapse resulted from normal contamination), one signature showed predictable direction of normal tissue effects. Due to this predictable direction of effect, this signature (the PAM50) was adjusted for normal tissue contamination and these corrections improved sensitivity and negative predictive value. For all three assays quality control standards and/or appropriate bias adjustment strategies can be used to improve assay reliability. Normal tissue sampled concurrently with tumor is an important source of bias in breast genomic predictors. All genomic predictors show some sensitivity to normal tissue contamination and ideal strategies for mitigating this bias vary depending upon the particular genes and computational methods used in the predictor.

Association Between Opioid Use and Risk of Erectile Dysfunction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Shankun; Deng, Tuo; Luo, Lianmin; Wang, Jiamin; Li, Ermao; Liu, Luhao; Li, Futian; Luo, Jintai; Zhao, Zhigang

2017-10-01

Opioid analgesics have been widely used to relieve chronic pain conditions; however, a connection between opioid analgesic administration and increased susceptibility to erectile dysfunction (ED) has been hypothesized. To evaluate whether opioid use was a risk factor for ED in a systematic review and meta-analysis. The PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases were searched to identify eligible studies concerning opioid use and risk of ED from inception to April 2017. The association between opioid use and risk of ED was summarized using the relative risk with 95% CI. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess potential bias. The Begg and Egger tests were used for publication bias analysis. The GRADE evidence profile tool was used to assess the quality of the evidence. The overall combined risk estimates for the effect of opioid use on ED were calculated using a random-effects model. This meta-analysis included 8,829 men (mean age = 41.6 years) from 10 studies, 2,456 of whom received opioid management (duration of intervention = 4 months to 9.5 years). Pooled results demonstrated that the use of opioids was significantly associated with an increased risk of ED (relative risk = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.66-2.32, P < .001). Estimates of the total effects were generally consistent in the sensitivity analysis. No evidence of publication bias was observed. The overall quality of evidence was rated as low. We found that men with opioid use had a significantly increased prevalence of ED, which suggests that patients and clinicians should be aware of the potential role played by opioid administration in the development of ED. This is the first meta-analysis performed to describe the relation between opioid use and ED risk based on all available epidemiologic studies. However, the direction of causality between opioid use and risk of ED should be interpreted with caution because most included studies used a cross-sectional design. Evidence from the included observational studies indicated that men with opioid use had a significantly increased risk of ED. Further randomized controlled trials are still needed to confirm this relation. Zhao S, Deng T, Luo L, et al. Association Between Opioid Use and Risk of Erectile Dysfunction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. J Sex Med 2017;14:1209-1219. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bending it like Beckham: how to visually fool the goalkeeper.

PubMed

Dessing, Joost C; Craig, Cathy M

2010-10-06

As bending free-kicks becomes the norm in modern day soccer, implications for goalkeepers have largely been ignored. Although it has been reported that poor sensitivity to visual acceleration makes it harder for expert goalkeepers to perceptually judge where the curved free-kicks will cross the goal line, it is unknown how this affects the goalkeeper's actual movements. Here, an in-depth analysis of goalkeepers' hand movements in immersive, interactive virtual reality shows that they do not fully account for spin-induced lateral ball acceleration. Hand movements were found to be biased in the direction of initial ball heading, and for curved free-kicks this resulted in biases in a direction opposite to those necessary to save the free-kick. These movement errors result in less time to cover a now greater distance to stop the ball entering the goal. These and other details of the interceptive behaviour are explained using a simple mathematical model which shows how the goalkeeper controls his movements online with respect to the ball's current heading direction. Furthermore our results and model suggest how visual landmarks, such as the goalposts in this instance, may constrain the extent of the movement biases. While it has previously been shown that humans can internalize the effects of gravitational acceleration, these results show that it is much more difficult for goalkeepers to account for spin-induced visual acceleration, which varies from situation to situation. The limited sensitivity of the human visual system for detecting acceleration, suggests that curved free-kicks are an important goal-scoring opportunity in the game of soccer.

Unpacking buyer-seller differences in valuation from experience: A cognitive modeling approach.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Scheibehenne, Benjamin

2017-12-01

People often indicate a higher price for an object when they own it (i.e., as sellers) than when they do not (i.e., as buyers)-a phenomenon known as the endowment effect. We develop a cognitive modeling approach to formalize, disentangle, and compare alternative psychological accounts (e.g., loss aversion, loss attention, strategic misrepresentation) of such buyer-seller differences in pricing decisions of monetary lotteries. To also be able to test possible buyer-seller differences in memory and learning, we study pricing decisions from experience, obtained with the sampling paradigm, where people learn about a lottery's payoff distribution from sequential sampling. We first formalize different accounts as models within three computational frameworks (reinforcement learning, instance-based learning theory, and cumulative prospect theory), and then fit the models to empirical selling and buying prices. In Study 1 (a reanalysis of published data with hypothetical decisions), models assuming buyer-seller differences in response bias (implementing a strategic-misrepresentation account) performed best; models assuming buyer-seller differences in choice sensitivity or memory (implementing a loss-attention account) generally fared worst. In a new experiment involving incentivized decisions (Study 2), models assuming buyer-seller differences in both outcome sensitivity (as proposed by a loss-aversion account) and response bias performed best. In both Study 1 and 2, the models implemented in cumulative prospect theory performed best. Model recovery studies validated our cognitive modeling approach, showing that the models can be distinguished rather well. In summary, our analysis supports a loss-aversion account of the endowment effect, but also reveals a substantial contribution of simple response bias.

Bending It Like Beckham: How to Visually Fool the Goalkeeper

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background As bending free-kicks becomes the norm in modern day soccer, implications for goalkeepers have largely been ignored. Although it has been reported that poor sensitivity to visual acceleration makes it harder for expert goalkeepers to perceptually judge where the curved free-kicks will cross the goal line, it is unknown how this affects the goalkeeper's actual movements. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, an in-depth analysis of goalkeepers' hand movements in immersive, interactive virtual reality shows that they do not fully account for spin-induced lateral ball acceleration. Hand movements were found to be biased in the direction of initial ball heading, and for curved free-kicks this resulted in biases in a direction opposite to those necessary to save the free-kick. These movement errors result in less time to cover a now greater distance to stop the ball entering the goal. These and other details of the interceptive behaviour are explained using a simple mathematical model which shows how the goalkeeper controls his movements online with respect to the ball's current heading direction. Furthermore our results and model suggest how visual landmarks, such as the goalposts in this instance, may constrain the extent of the movement biases. Conclusions While it has previously been shown that humans can internalize the effects of gravitational acceleration, these results show that it is much more difficult for goalkeepers to account for spin-induced visual acceleration, which varies from situation to situation. The limited sensitivity of the human visual system for detecting acceleration, suggests that curved free-kicks are an important goal-scoring opportunity in the game of soccer. PMID:20949130

Paraneoplastic autoantibody panels: sensitivity and specificity, a retrospective cohort.

PubMed

Albadareen, Rawan; Gronseth, Gary; Goeden, Marcie; Sharrock, Matthew; Lechtenberg, Colleen; Wang, Yunxia

2017-06-01

Experts in the autoimmune paraneoplastic field recommend autoantibody testing as "panels" to improve the poor sensitivity of individual autoantibodies in detecting paraneoplastic neurological syndromes (PNS). The sensitivity of those panels was not reported to date in a fashion devoid of incorporation bias. We aimed to assess the collective sensitivity and specificity of one of the commonly used panels in detecting PNS. A single-centered retrospective cohort of all patients tested for paraneoplastic evaluation panel (PAVAL; test ID: 83380) over one year for the suspicion of PNS. Case adjudication was based on newly proposed diagnostic criteria in line with previously published literature, but modified to exclude serological status to avoid incorporation bias. Measures of diagnostic accuracy were subsequently calculated. Cases that failed to show association with malignancy within the follow-up time studied, reflecting a possibly pure autoimmune process was considered paraneoplastic-like syndromes. Out of 321 patients tested, 51 patients tested positive. Thirty-two patients met diagnostic criteria for paraneoplastic/paraneoplastic-like syndromes. The calculated collective sensitivity was 34% (95% CI: 17-53), specificity was 86% (95% CI: 81-90), Youden's index 0.2 and a positive clinical utility index 0.07 suggesting poor utility for case-detection. This is the first reported diagnostic accuracy measures of paraneoplastic panels without incorporation bias. Despite recommended panel testing to improve detection of PNS, sensitivity remains low with poor utility for case-detection. The high-calculated specificity suggests a possible role in confirming the condition in difficult cases suspicious for PNS, when enough supportive evidence is lacking on ancillary testing.

Sensitization to common allergens among patients with allergies in major Iranian cities: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Moghtaderi, Mozhgan; Hosseini Teshnizi, Saeed; Farjadian, Shirin

2017-01-01

Various allergens are implicated in the pathogenesis of allergic diseases in different regions. This study attempted to identify the most common allergens among patients with allergies based on the results of skin prick tests in different parts of Iran. Relevant studies conducted from 2000 to 2016 were identified from the MEDLINE database. Six common groups of allergen types, including animal, cockroach, food, fungus, house dust mite, and pollen were considered. Subgroup analysis was performed to determine the prevalence of each type of allergen. The Egger test was used to assess publication bias. We included 44 studies in this meta-analysis. The overall prevalence of positive skin test results for at least one allergen was estimated to be 59% in patients with allergies in various parts of Iran. The number of patients was 11,646 (56% male and 44% female), with a mean age of 17.46±11.12 years. The most common allergen sources were pollen (47.0%), mites (35.2%), and food (15.3%). The prevalence of sensitization to food and cockroach allergens among children was greater than among adults. Pollen is the most common allergen sensitization in cities of Iran with a warm and dry climate; however, sensitization to house dust mites is predominant in northern and southern coastal areas of Iran.

Sensitization to common allergens among patients with allergies in major Iranian cities: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Farjadian, Shirin

2017-01-01

Various allergens are implicated in the pathogenesis of allergic diseases in different regions. This study attempted to identify the most common allergens among patients with allergies based on the results of skin prick tests in different parts of Iran. Relevant studies conducted from 2000 to 2016 were identified from the MEDLINE database. Six common groups of allergen types, including animal, cockroach, food, fungus, house dust mite, and pollen were considered. Subgroup analysis was performed to determine the prevalence of each type of allergen. The Egger test was used to assess publication bias. We included 44 studies in this meta-analysis. The overall prevalence of positive skin test results for at least one allergen was estimated to be 59% in patients with allergies in various parts of Iran. The number of patients was 11,646 (56% male and 44% female), with a mean age of 17.46±11.12 years. The most common allergen sources were pollen (47.0%), mites (35.2%), and food (15.3%). The prevalence of sensitization to food and cockroach allergens among children was greater than among adults. Pollen is the most common allergen sensitization in cities of Iran with a warm and dry climate; however, sensitization to house dust mites is predominant in northern and southern coastal areas of Iran. PMID:28171712

Quantitative performance targets by using balanced scorecard system: application to waste management and public administration.

PubMed

Mendes, Paula; Nunes, Luis Miguel; Teixeira, Margarida Ribau

2014-09-01

This article demonstrates how decision-makers can be guided in the process of defining performance target values in the balanced scorecard system. We apply a method based on sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo simulation to the municipal solid waste management system in Loulé Municipality (Portugal). The method includes two steps: sensitivity analysis of performance indicators to identify those performance indicators with the highest impact on the balanced scorecard model outcomes; and sensitivity analysis of the target values for the previously identified performance indicators. Sensitivity analysis shows that four strategic objectives (IPP1: Comply with the national waste strategy; IPP4: Reduce nonrenewable resources and greenhouse gases; IPP5: Optimize the life-cycle of waste; and FP1: Meet and optimize the budget) alone contribute 99.7% of the variability in overall balanced scorecard value. Thus, these strategic objectives had a much stronger impact on the estimated balanced scorecard outcome than did others, with the IPP1 and the IPP4 accounting for over 55% and 22% of the variance in overall balanced scorecard value, respectively. The remaining performance indicators contribute only marginally. In addition, a change in the value of a single indicator's target value made the overall balanced scorecard value change by as much as 18%. This may lead to involuntarily biased decisions by organizations regarding performance target-setting, if not prevented with the help of methods such as that proposed and applied in this study. © The Author(s) 2014.

Formaldehyde monitor for automobile exhausts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Easley, W. C.

1973-01-01

Device makes use of microwave spectral absorption in low-Q resonant Stark cell, and indications are that ultimate sensitivity of instrument is within 100 parts per billion of formaldehyde. Microwave source is very small and requires only six-volt dc bias for operation. Coarse tuning is accomplished mechanically and fine tuning by adjusting dc-bias voltage.

The Role of Response Bias in Perceptual Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Pete R.; Moore, David R.; Shub, Daniel E.; Amitay, Sygal

2015-01-01

Sensory judgments improve with practice. Such perceptual learning is often thought to reflect an increase in perceptual sensitivity. However, it may also represent a decrease in response bias, with unpracticed observers acting in part on a priori hunches rather than sensory evidence. To examine whether this is the case, 55 observers practiced…

Complement factor H Y402H variant and risk of age-related macular degeneration in Asians: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kondo, Naoshi; Bessho, Hiroaki; Honda, Shigeru; Negi, Akira

2011-02-01

To investigate whether the Y402H variant in the complement factor H gene is associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Asian populations. Meta-analysis of previous publications. Case-control groups of subjects with AMD and controls from 13 association studies. We performed a meta-analysis of the association between Y402H and AMD in Asian populations using data available from 13 case-control studies involving 3973 subjects. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed- and random-effects models. The Q-statistic test was used to assess heterogeneity, and Egger's test was used to evaluate publication bias. Sensitivity analysis, cumulative meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis were also performed. Allele and genotype frequencies of the Y402H variant. The Y402H variant showed a significant summary OR of 1.97 (95% CI, 1.54-2.52; P<0.001; allelic contrast model) per allele. Possession of at least 1 copy of the C allele increased the disease risk by 1.97-fold (95% CI, 1.63-2.39; P<0.001; dominant model) and accounted for 8.8% of the attributable risk of AMD in Asian populations. Sensitivity analysis indicated the robustness of our findings, and evidence of publication bias was not observed in our meta-analysis. Meta-regression analysis indicated no significant effect of baseline study characteristics on the summary effect size. Cumulative meta-analysis revealed that the summary ORs were stable and the 95% CIs narrowed with the accumulation of data over time. Our analysis provides substantial evidence that the Y402H variant is significantly associated with AMD in Asian populations. Our results expand the number of confirmed AMD susceptibility loci for Asians populations, which provide a better understanding of the genetic architecture underlying disease susceptibility and may advance the potential for preclinical prediction in future genetic tests by a combined evaluation of inherited susceptibility with previously established loci. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Local bias-induced phase transitions

DOE PAGES

Seal, Katyayani; Baddorf, Arthur P.; Jesse, Stephen; ...

2008-11-27

Electrical bias-induced phase transitions underpin a wide range of applications from data storage to energy generation and conversion. The mechanisms behind these transitions are often quite complex and in many cases are extremely sensitive to local defects that act as centers for local transformations or pinning. Furthermore, using ferroelectrics as an example, we review methods for probing bias-induced phase transitions and discuss the current limitations and challenges for extending the methods to field-induced phase transitions and electrochemical reactions in energy storage, biological and molecular systems.

The Impact of Coping Style on Gaze Duration

PubMed Central

Klucken, Tim; Brouwer, Anne-Marie; Chatziastros, Astros; Kagerer, Sabine; Netter, Petra; Hennig, Juergen

2010-01-01

The understanding of individual differences in response to threat (e.g., attentional bias) is important to better understand the development of anxiety disorders. Previous studies revealed only a small attentional bias in high-anxious (HA) subjects. One explanation for this finding may be the assumption that all HA-subjects show a constant attentional bias. Current models distinguish HA-subjects depending on their level of tolerance for uncertainty and for arousal. These models assume that only HA-subjects with intolerance for uncertainty but tolerance for arousal (“sensitizers”) show an attentional bias, compared to HA-subjects with intolerance for uncertainty and intolerance for arousal (“fluctuating subjects”). Further, it is assumed that repressors (defined as intolerance for arousal but tolerance for uncertainty) would react with avoidance behavior when confronted with threatening stimuli. The present study investigated the influence of coping styles on attentional bias. After an extensive recruiting phase, 36 subjects were classified into three groups (sensitizers, fluctuating, and repressors). All subjects were exposed to presentations of happy and threatening faces, while recording gaze durations with an eye-tracker. The results showed that only sensitizer showed an attentional bias: they gazed longer at the threatening face rather than at the happy face during the first 500 ms. The results support the findings of the relationship between anxiety and attention and extend these by showing variations according to coping styles. The differentiation of subjects according to a multifaceted coping style allows a better prediction of the attentional bias and contributes to an insight into the complex interplay of personality, coping, and behavior. PMID:21085590

Measurement Error and Environmental Epidemiology: A Policy Perspective

PubMed Central

Edwards, Jessie K.; Keil, Alexander P.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review Measurement error threatens public health by producing bias in estimates of the population impact of environmental exposures. Quantitative methods to account for measurement bias can improve public health decision making. Recent findings We summarize traditional and emerging methods to improve inference under a standard perspective, in which the investigator estimates an exposure response function, and a policy perspective, in which the investigator directly estimates population impact of a proposed intervention. Summary Under a policy perspective, the analysis must be sensitive to errors in measurement of factors that modify the effect of exposure on outcome, must consider whether policies operate on the true or measured exposures, and may increasingly need to account for potentially dependent measurement error of two or more exposures affected by the same policy or intervention. Incorporating approaches to account for measurement error into such a policy perspective will increase the impact of environmental epidemiology. PMID:28138941

Facial emotion recognition in alcohol and substance use disorders: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Castellano, Filippo; Bartoli, Francesco; Crocamo, Cristina; Gamba, Giulia; Tremolada, Martina; Santambrogio, Jacopo; Clerici, Massimo; Carrà, Giuseppe

2015-12-01

People with alcohol and substance use disorders (AUDs/SUDs) show worse facial emotion recognition (FER) than controls, though magnitude and potential moderators remain unknown. The aim of this meta-analysis was to estimate the association between AUDs, SUDs and FER impairment. Electronic databases were searched through April 2015. Pooled analyses were based on standardized mean differences between index and control groups with 95% confidence intervals, weighting each study with random effects inverse variance models. Risk of publication bias and role of potential moderators, including task type, were explored. Nineteen of 70 studies assessed for eligibility met the inclusion criteria, comprising 1352 individuals, of whom 714 (53%) had AUDs or SUDs. The association between substance related disorders and FER performance showed an effect size of -0.67 (-0.95, -0.39), and -0.65 (-0.93, -0.37) for AUDs and SUDs, respectively. There was no publication bias and subgroup and sensitivity analyses based on potential moderators confirmed core results. Future longitudinal research should confirm these findings, clarifying the role of specific clinical issues of AUDs and SUDs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing breast cancer using Raman spectroscopy: prospective analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haka, Abigail S.; Volynskaya, Zoya; Gardecki, Joseph A.; Nazemi, Jon; Shenk, Robert; Wang, Nancy; Dasari, Ramachandra R.; Fitzmaurice, Maryann; Feld, Michael S.

2009-09-01

We present the first prospective test of Raman spectroscopy in diagnosing normal, benign, and malignant human breast tissues. Prospective testing of spectral diagnostic algorithms allows clinicians to accurately assess the diagnostic information contained in, and any bias of, the spectroscopic measurement. In previous work, we developed an accurate, internally validated algorithm for breast cancer diagnosis based on analysis of Raman spectra acquired from fresh-frozen in vitro tissue samples. We currently evaluate the performance of this algorithm prospectively on a large ex vivo clinical data set that closely mimics the in vivo environment. Spectroscopic data were collected from freshly excised surgical specimens, and 129 tissue sites from 21 patients were examined. Prospective application of the algorithm to the clinical data set resulted in a sensitivity of 83%, a specificity of 93%, a positive predictive value of 36%, and a negative predictive value of 99% for distinguishing cancerous from normal and benign tissues. The performance of the algorithm in different patient populations is discussed. Sources of bias in the in vitro calibration and ex vivo prospective data sets, including disease prevalence and disease spectrum, are examined and analytical methods for comparison provided.

Dissociating Contributions of the Motor Cortex to Speech Perception and Response Bias by Using Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

PubMed Central

Smalle, Eleonore H. M.; Rogers, Jack; Möttönen, Riikka

2015-01-01

Recent studies using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) have demonstrated that disruptions of the articulatory motor cortex impair performance in demanding speech perception tasks. These findings have been interpreted as support for the idea that the motor cortex is critically involved in speech perception. However, the validity of this interpretation has been called into question, because it is unknown whether the TMS-induced disruptions in the motor cortex affect speech perception or rather response bias. In the present TMS study, we addressed this question by using signal detection theory to calculate sensitivity (i.e., d′) and response bias (i.e., criterion c). We used repetitive TMS to temporarily disrupt the lip or hand representation in the left motor cortex. Participants discriminated pairs of sounds from a “ba”–“da” continuum before TMS, immediately after TMS (i.e., during the period of motor disruption), and after a 30-min break. We found that the sensitivity for between-category pairs was reduced during the disruption of the lip representation. In contrast, disruption of the hand representation temporarily reduced response bias. This double dissociation indicates that the hand motor cortex contributes to response bias during demanding discrimination tasks, whereas the articulatory motor cortex contributes to perception of speech sounds. PMID:25274987

Channeling Consumers to Preferred Providers and the Impact of Status Quo Bias: Does Type of Provider Matter?

PubMed Central

Boonen, Lieke H H M; Donkers, Bas; Schut, Frederik T

2011-01-01

Context To effectively bargain about the price and quality of health services, health insurers need to successfully channel their enrollees. Little is known about consumer sensitivity to different channeling incentives. In particular, the impact of status quo bias, which is expected to differ between different provider types, can play a large role in insurers' channeling ability. Objective To examine consumer sensitivity to channeling strategies and to analyze the impact of status quo bias for different provider types. Data Sources/Study Design With a large-scale discrete choice experiment, we investigate the impact of channeling incentives on choices for pharmacies and general practitioners (GPs). Survey data were obtained among a representative Dutch household panel (n=2,500). Principal Findings Negative financial incentives have a two to three times larger impact on provider choice than positive ones. Positive financial incentives have a relatively small impact on GP choice, while the impact of qualitative incentives is relatively large. Status quo bias has a large impact on provider choice, which is more prominent in the case of GPs than in the case of pharmacies. Conclusion The large impact of the status quo bias makes channeling consumers away from their current providers a daunting task, particularly in the case of GPs. PMID:21029092

Cognitive judgement bias is associated with frequency of anticipatory behavior in bottlenose dolphins.

PubMed

Clegg, Isabella L K; Delfour, Fabienne

2018-03-01

Many animals display a suite of increased vigilance and/or activity responses in relation to upcoming events, termed "anticipatory behavior." Anticipatory behavior toward positive events has been suggested as a cross-species measure of affective state as it likely reflects the balance of the reward-sensitivity system: various studies suggest that animals in poorer welfare situations show higher or excessive levels of anticipation for positive events. Another tool for evaluating animals' affective state is cognitive bias testing, and although it has been attempted, a link has not yet been made between cognitive bias and anticipatory behavior levels. Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in captivity increase the performance of behaviors such as surface-looking and spy-hopping in anticipation of training sessions during which food is provided. In this study we measured anticipatory behavior frequency in bottlenose dolphins prior to positive reinforcement training sessions, and assessed whether frequency of anticipatory behavior correlated with their performance on cognitive bias tasks. We found that higher frequencies of anticipatory behavior for training sessions was significantly associated with more pessimistic judgements in cognitive bias tests, supporting previous findings linking higher reward sensitivity with negative affective states. Anticipatory behavior is an easily measured activity and could represent a welfare indicator in dolphins as well as other animals in captive environments. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Channeling consumers to preferred providers and the impact of status quo bias: does type of provider matter?

PubMed

Boonen, Lieke H H M; Donkers, Bas; Schut, Frederik T

2011-04-01

To effectively bargain about the price and quality of health services, health insurers need to successfully channel their enrollees. Little is known about consumer sensitivity to different channeling incentives. In particular, the impact of status quo bias, which is expected to differ between different provider types, can play a large role in insurers' channeling ability. To examine consumer sensitivity to channeling strategies and to analyze the impact of status quo bias for different provider types. With a large-scale discrete choice experiment, we investigate the impact of channeling incentives on choices for pharmacies and general practitioners (GPs). Survey data were obtained among a representative Dutch household panel (n = 2,500). Negative financial incentives have a two to three times larger impact on provider choice than positive ones. Positive financial incentives have a relatively small impact on GP choice, while the impact of qualitative incentives is relatively large. Status quo bias has a large impact on provider choice, which is more prominent in the case of GPs than in the case of pharmacies. The large impact of the status quo bias makes channeling consumers away from their current providers a daunting task, particularly in the case of GPs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

A new method to address verification bias in studies of clinical screening tests: cervical cancer screening assays as an example.

PubMed

Xue, Xiaonan; Kim, Mimi Y; Castle, Philip E; Strickler, Howard D

2014-03-01

Studies to evaluate clinical screening tests often face the problem that the "gold standard" diagnostic approach is costly and/or invasive. It is therefore common to verify only a subset of negative screening tests using the gold standard method. However, undersampling the screen negatives can lead to substantial overestimation of the sensitivity and underestimation of the specificity of the diagnostic test. Our objective was to develop a simple and accurate statistical method to address this "verification bias." We developed a weighted generalized estimating equation approach to estimate, in a single model, the accuracy (eg, sensitivity/specificity) of multiple assays and simultaneously compare results between assays while addressing verification bias. This approach can be implemented using standard statistical software. Simulations were conducted to assess the proposed method. An example is provided using a cervical cancer screening trial that compared the accuracy of human papillomavirus and Pap tests, with histologic data as the gold standard. The proposed approach performed well in estimating and comparing the accuracy of multiple assays in the presence of verification bias. The proposed approach is an easy to apply and accurate method for addressing verification bias in studies of multiple screening methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross-modal cueing effects of visuospatial attention on conscious somatosensory perception.

PubMed

Doruk, Deniz; Chanes, Lorena; Malavera, Alejandra; Merabet, Lotfi B; Valero-Cabré, Antoni; Fregni, Felipe

2018-04-01

The impact of visuospatial attention on perception with supraliminal stimuli and stimuli at the threshold of conscious perception has been previously investigated. In this study, we assess the cross-modal effects of visuospatial attention on conscious perception for near-threshold somatosensory stimuli applied to the face. Fifteen healthy participants completed two sessions of a near-threshold cross-modality cue-target discrimination/conscious detection paradigm. Each trial began with an endogenous visuospatial cue that predicted the location of a weak near-threshold electrical pulse delivered to the right or left cheek with high probability (∼75%). Participants then completed two tasks: first, a forced-choice somatosensory discrimination task (felt once or twice?) and then, a somatosensory conscious detection task (did you feel the stimulus and, if yes, where (left/right)?). Somatosensory discrimination was evaluated with the response reaction times of correctly detected targets, whereas the somatosensory conscious detection was quantified using perceptual sensitivity (d') and response bias (beta). A 2 × 2 repeated measures ANOVA was used for statistical analysis. In the somatosensory discrimination task (1 st task), participants were significantly faster in responding to correctly detected targets (p < 0.001). In the somatosensory conscious detection task (2 nd task), a significant effect of visuospatial attention on response bias (p = 0.008) was observed, suggesting that participants had a less strict criterion for stimuli preceded by spatially valid than invalid visuospatial cues. We showed that spatial attention has the potential to modulate the discrimination and the conscious detection of near-threshold somatosensory stimuli as measured, respectively, by a reduction of reaction times and a shift in response bias toward less conservative responses when the cue predicted stimulus location. A shift in response bias indicates possible effects of spatial attention on internal decision processes. The lack of significant results in perceptual sensitivity (d') could be due to weaker effects of endogenous attention on perception.

Commercial test kits for detection of Lyme borreliosis: a meta-analysis of test accuracy

PubMed Central

Cook, Michael J; Puri, Basant K

2016-01-01

The clinical diagnosis of Lyme borreliosis can be supported by various test methodologies; test kits are available from many manufacturers. Literature searches were carried out to identify studies that reported characteristics of the test kits. Of 50 searched studies, 18 were included where the tests were commercially available and samples were proven to be positive using serology testing, evidence of an erythema migrans rash, and/or culture. Additional requirements were a test specificity of ≥85% and publication in the last 20 years. The weighted mean sensitivity for all tests and for all samples was 59.5%. Individual study means varied from 30.6% to 86.2%. Sensitivity for each test technology varied from 62.4% for Western blot kits, and 62.3% for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests, to 53.9% for synthetic C6 peptide ELISA tests and 53.7% when the two-tier methodology was used. Test sensitivity increased as dissemination of the pathogen affected different organs; however, the absence of data on the time from infection to serological testing and the lack of standard definitions for “early” and “late” disease prevented analysis of test sensitivity versus time of infection. The lack of standardization of the definitions of disease stage and the possibility of retrospective selection bias prevented clear evaluation of test sensitivity by “stage”. The sensitivity for samples classified as acute disease was 35.4%, with a corresponding sensitivity of 64.5% for samples from patients defined as convalescent. Regression analysis demonstrated an improvement of 4% in test sensitivity over the 20-year study period. The studies did not provide data to indicate the sensitivity of tests used in a clinical setting since the effect of recent use of antibiotics or steroids or other factors affecting antibody response was not factored in. The tests were developed for only specific Borrelia species; sensitivities for other species could not be calculated. PMID:27920571

Analytical Performances of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 RNA-Based Amplix® Real-Time PCR Platform for HIV-1 RNA Quantification

PubMed Central

Mboumba Bouassa, Ralph-Sydney; Jenabian, Mohammad-Ali; Wolyec, Serge Tonen; Robin, Leman; Matta, Mathieu; Longo, Jean de Dieu; Grésenguet, Gérard; Andreoletti, Laurent; Bélec, Laurent

2016-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated the performances of Amplix real-time PCR platform developed by Biosynex (Strasbourg, France), combining automated station extraction (Amplix station 16 Dx) and real-time PCR (Amplix NG), for quantifying plasma HIV-1 RNA by lyophilized HIV-1 RNA-based Amplix reagents targeting gag and LTR, using samples from HIV-1-infected adults from Central African Republic. Results. Amplix real-time PCR assay showed low limit of detection (28 copies/mL), across wide dynamic range (1.4–10 log copies/mL), 100% sensitivity and 99% specificity, high reproducibility, and accuracy with mean bias < 5%. The assay showed excellent correlations and concordance of 95.3% with the reference HIV-1 RNA load assay (Roche), with mean absolute bias of +0.097 log copies/mL by Bland-Altman analysis. The assay was able to detect and quantify the most prevalent HIV-1 subtype strains and the majority of non-B subtypes, CRFs of HIV-1 group M, and HIV-1 groups N and O circulating in Central Africa. The Amplix assay showed 100% sensitivity and 99.6% specificity to diagnose virological failure in clinical samples from antiretroviral drug-experienced patients. Conclusions. The HIV-1 RNA-based Amplix real-time PCR platform constitutes sensitive and reliable system for clinical monitoring of HIV-1 RNA load in HIV-1-infected children and adults, particularly adapted to intermediate laboratory facilities in sub-Saharan Africa. PMID:28050283

Building on crossvalidation for increasing the quality of geostatistical modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.

2012-01-01

The random function is a mathematical model commonly used in the assessment of uncertainty associated with a spatially correlated attribute that has been partially sampled. There are multiple algorithms for modeling such random functions, all sharing the requirement of specifying various parameters that have critical influence on the results. The importance of finding ways to compare the methods and setting parameters to obtain results that better model uncertainty has increased as these algorithms have grown in number and complexity. Crossvalidation has been used in spatial statistics, mostly in kriging, for the analysis of mean square errors. An appeal of this approach is its ability to work with the same empirical sample available for running the algorithms. This paper goes beyond checking estimates by formulating a function sensitive to conditional bias. Under ideal conditions, such function turns into a straight line, which can be used as a reference for preparing measures of performance. Applied to kriging, deviations from the ideal line provide sensitivity to the semivariogram lacking in crossvalidation of kriging errors and are more sensitive to conditional bias than analyses of errors. In terms of stochastic simulation, in addition to finding better parameters, the deviations allow comparison of the realizations resulting from the applications of different methods. Examples show improvements of about 30% in the deviations and approximately 10% in the square root of mean square errors between reasonable starting modelling and the solutions according to the new criteria. ?? 2011 US Government.

Establishing Long-Term Efficacy in Chronic Disease: Use of Recursive Partitioning and Propensity Score Adjustment to Estimate Outcome in MS

PubMed Central

Goodin, Douglas S.; Jones, Jason; Li, David; Traboulsee, Anthony; Reder, Anthony T.; Beckmann, Karola; Konieczny, Andreas; Knappertz, Volker

2011-01-01

Context Establishing the long-term benefit of therapy in chronic diseases has been challenging. Long-term studies require non-randomized designs and, thus, are often confounded by biases. For example, although disease-modifying therapy in MS has a convincing benefit on several short-term outcome-measures in randomized trials, its impact on long-term function remains uncertain. Objective Data from the 16-year Long-Term Follow-up study of interferon-beta-1b is used to assess the relationship between drug-exposure and long-term disability in MS patients. Design/Setting To mitigate the bias of outcome-dependent exposure variation in non-randomized long-term studies, drug-exposure was measured as the medication-possession-ratio, adjusted up or down according to multiple different weighting-schemes based on MS severity and MS duration at treatment initiation. A recursive-partitioning algorithm assessed whether exposure (using any weighing scheme) affected long-term outcome. The optimal cut-point that was used to define “high” or “low” exposure-groups was chosen by the algorithm. Subsequent to verification of an exposure-impact that included all predictor variables, the two groups were compared using a weighted propensity-stratified analysis in order to mitigate any treatment-selection bias that may have been present. Finally, multiple sensitivity-analyses were undertaken using different definitions of long-term outcome and different assumptions about the data. Main Outcome Measure Long-Term Disability. Results In these analyses, the same weighting-scheme was consistently selected by the recursive-partitioning algorithm. This scheme reduced (down-weighted) the effectiveness of drug exposure as either disease duration or disability at treatment-onset increased. Applying this scheme and using propensity-stratification to further mitigate bias, high-exposure had a consistently better clinical outcome compared to low-exposure (Cox proportional hazard ratio = 0.30–0.42; p<0.0001). Conclusions Early initiation and sustained use of interferon-beta-1b has a beneficial impact on long-term outcome in MS. Our analysis strategy provides a methodological framework for bias-mitigation in the analysis of non-randomized clinical data. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00206635 PMID:22140424

Highly sensitive PMOS photodetector with wide band responsivity assisted by nanoporous anodic aluminum oxide membrane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yung Ting; Chen, Yang Fang

2010-03-01

A new approach for developing highly sensitive PMOS photodetector based on the assistance of AAO membrane is proposed, fabricated, and characterized. It enables the photodetector with the tunability of not only the intensity but also the range of the response. Under a forward bias, the response of the PMOS photodetector with AAO membrane covers the visible as well as infrared spectrum; however, under a reverse bias, the near-infrared light around Si band edge dominates the photoresponse. Notably, the response at the optical communication wavelength of 850 nm can reach up to 0.24 A/W with an external quantum efficiency of 35%. Moreover, the response shows a large enhancement factor of 10 times at 1050 nm under a reverse bias of 0.5 V comparing with the device without AAO membrane. The underlying mechanism for the novel properties of the newly designed device has been proposed.

Grasp posture alters visual processing biases near the hands

PubMed Central

Thomas, Laura E.

2015-01-01

Observers experience biases in visual processing for objects within easy reach of their hands that may assist them in evaluating items that are candidates for action. I investigated the hypothesis that hand postures affording different types of actions differentially bias vision. Across three experiments, participants performed global motion detection and global form perception tasks while their hands were positioned a) near the display in a posture affording a power grasp, b) near the display in a posture affording a precision grasp, or c) in their laps. Although the power grasp posture facilitated performance on the motion task, the precision grasp posture instead facilitated performance on the form task. These results suggest that the visual system weights processing based on an observer’s current affordances for specific actions: fast and forceful power grasps enhance temporal sensitivity, while detail-oriented precision grasps enhance spatial sensitivity. PMID:25862545

Recovery of damage in rad-hard MOS devices during and after irradiation by electrons, protons, alphas, and gamma rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brucker, G. J.; Van Gunten, O.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Shapiro, P.; August, L. S.; Jordan, T. M.

1983-01-01

This paper reports on the recovery properties of rad-hard MOS devices during and after irradiation by electrons, protons, alphas, and gamma rays. The results indicated that complex recovery properties controlled the damage sensitivities of the tested parts. The results also indicated that damage sensitivities depended on dose rate, total dose, supply bias, gate bias, transistor type, radiation source, and particle energy. The complex nature of these dependencies make interpretation of LSI device performance in space (exposure to entire electron and proton spectra) difficult, if not impossible, without respective ground tests and analyses. Complete recovery of n-channel shifts was observed, in some cases within hours after irradiation, with equilibrium values of threshold voltages greater than their pre-irradiation values. This effect depended on total dose, radiation source, and gate bias during exposure. In contrast, the p-channel shifts recovered only 20 percent within 30 days after irradiation.

Own attractiveness and perceived relationship quality shape sensitivity in women's memory for other men on the attractiveness dimension.

PubMed

Watkins, Christopher D; Nicholls, Mike J; Batres, Carlota; Xiao, Dengke; Talamas, Sean; Perrett, David I

2017-06-01

Although recent work suggests that opposite-sex facial attractiveness is less salient in memory when individuals are in a committed romantic relationship, romantic relationship quality can vary over time. In light of this, we tested whether activating concerns about romantic relationship quality strengthens memory for attractive faces. Partnered women were exposed briefly to faces manipulated in shape cues to attractiveness before either being asked to think about a moment of emotional closeness or distance in their current relationship. We measured sensitivity in memory for faces as the extent to which they recognized correct versions of studied faces over versions of the same person altered to look either more or less-attractive than their original (i.e., studied) version. Contrary to predictions, high relationship quality strengthened hit rate for faces regardless of the sex or attractiveness of the face. In general, women's memories were more sensitive to attractiveness in women, but were biased toward attractiveness in male faces, both when responding to unfamiliar faces and versions of familiar faces that were more attractive than the original male identity from the learning phase. However, findings varied according to self-rated attractiveness and a psychometric measure of the quality of their current relationship. Attractive women were more sensitive to attractiveness in men, while their less-attractive peers had a stronger bias to remember women as more-attractive and men as less-attractive than their original image respectively. Women in better-quality romantic relationships had stronger positive biases toward, and false memories for, attractive men. Our findings suggest a sophisticated pattern of sensitivity and bias in women's memory for facial cues to quality that varies systematically according to factors that may alter the costs of female mating competition ('market demand') and relationship maintenance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypoxaemia as a Mortality Risk Factor in Acute Lower Respiratory Infections in Children in Low and Middle-Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Lazzerini, Marzia; Sonego, Michela; Pellegrin, Maria Chiara

2015-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association between hypoxaemia and mortality from acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Study Selection Observational studies reporting on the association between hypoxaemia and death from ALRI in children below five years in LMIC. Data Sources Medline, Embase, Global Health Library, Lilacs, and Web of Science to February 2015. Risk of Bias Assessment Quality In Prognosis Studies tool with minor adaptations to assess the risk of bias; funnel plots and Egger’s test to evaluate publication bias. Results Out of 11,627 papers retrieved, 18 studies from 13 countries on 20,224 children met the inclusion criteria. Twelve (66.6%) studies had either low or moderate risk of bias. Hypoxaemia defined as oxygen saturation rate (SpO2) <90% associated with significantly increased odds of death from ALRI (OR 5.47, 95% CI 3.93 to 7.63) in 12 studies on 13,936 children. An Sp02 <92% associated with a similar increased risk of mortality (OR 3.66, 95% CI 1.42 to 9.47) in 3 studies on 673 children. Sensitivity analyses (excluding studies with high risk of bias and using adjusted OR) and subgroup analyses (by: altitude, definition of ALRI, country income, HIV prevalence) did not affect results. Only one study was performed on children living at high altitude. Conclusions The results of this review support the routine evaluation of SpO2 for identifying children with ALRI at increased risk of death. Both a Sp02 value of 92% and 90% equally identify children at increased risk of mortality. More research is needed on children living at high altitude. Policy makers in LMIC should aim at improving the regular use of pulse oximetry and the availability of oxygen in order to decrease mortality from ALRI. PMID:26372640

Bias and inference from misspecified mixed-effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Jennifer A; Fielding, Katherine L; Davey, Calum; Aiken, Alexander M; Hargreaves, James R; Hayes, Richard J

2017-10-15

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed-effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common-to-all or varied-between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within-cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within-cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed-effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within-cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bias and inference from misspecified mixed‐effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis

PubMed Central

Fielding, Katherine L.; Davey, Calum; Aiken, Alexander M.; Hargreaves, James R.; Hayes, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed‐effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common‐to‐all or varied‐between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within‐cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within‐cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed‐effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within‐cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28556355

The Effect of an Increased Convective Entrainment Rate on Indian Monsoon Biases in the Met Office Unified Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steve; Martin, Gill

2013-04-01

Global circulation models (GCMs) are a key tool for understanding and predicting monsoon rainfall, now and under future climate change. However, many GCMs show significant, systematic biases in their simulation of monsoon rainfall and dynamics that spin up over very short time scales and persist in the climate mean state. We describe several of these biases as simulated in the Met Office Unified Model and show they are sensitive to changes in the convective parameterization's entrainment rate. To improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parameterizations, we explore the reasons for this sensitivity. We show the results of experiments where we increase the entrainment rate in regions of especially large bias: the western equatorial Indian Ocean, western north Pacific and India itself. We use the results to determine whether improvements in biases are due to the local increase in entrainment or are the remote response of the entrainment increase elsewhere in the GCM. We find that feedbacks usually strengthen the local response, but the local response leads to a different mean state change in different regions. We also show results from experiments which demonstrate the spin-up of the local response, which we use to further understand the response in complex regions such as the Western North Pacific. Our work demonstrates that local application of parameterization changes is a powerful tool for understanding their global impact.

When and how should multiple imputation be used for handling missing data in randomised clinical trials - a practical guide with flowcharts.

PubMed

Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian; Wetterslev, Jørn; Winkel, Per

2017-12-06

Missing data may seriously compromise inferences from randomised clinical trials, especially if missing data are not handled appropriately. The potential bias due to missing data depends on the mechanism causing the data to be missing, and the analytical methods applied to amend the missingness. Therefore, the analysis of trial data with missing values requires careful planning and attention. The authors had several meetings and discussions considering optimal ways of handling missing data to minimise the bias potential. We also searched PubMed (key words: missing data; randomi*; statistical analysis) and reference lists of known studies for papers (theoretical papers; empirical studies; simulation studies; etc.) on how to deal with missing data when analysing randomised clinical trials. Handling missing data is an important, yet difficult and complex task when analysing results of randomised clinical trials. We consider how to optimise the handling of missing data during the planning stage of a randomised clinical trial and recommend analytical approaches which may prevent bias caused by unavoidable missing data. We consider the strengths and limitations of using of best-worst and worst-best sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation, and full information maximum likelihood. We also present practical flowcharts on how to deal with missing data and an overview of the steps that always need to be considered during the analysis stage of a trial. We present a practical guide and flowcharts describing when and how multiple imputation should be used to handle missing data in randomised clinical.

Bias in dyslexia screening in a Dutch multicultural population.

PubMed

Verpalen, Anick; Van de Vijver, Fons; Backus, Ad

2018-04-01

We set out to address the adequacy of dyslexia screening in Dutch and non-western immigrant children, using the Dutch Dyslexia Screening Test (DST-NL) and outcomes of the Dutch dyslexia protocol, both of which are susceptible to cultural bias. Using the protocol as standard, we conducted an ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) analysis in Dutch and immigrant third, fifth, and seventh graders, combining a cross-sectional and longitudinal design. Sensitivity and specificity increased with grade, but were non-significant for various subtests in the lowest grade, suggesting considerable non-convergence between the two measures. Effective subtests in all grades, presumably not strongly influenced by Cultural Background or Word Lexicon, were One-Minute Reading, Non-Word Reading, and Nonsense Passage Reading. In a multilevel analysis, cultural background, dyslexia diagnosis, parental education, and grade of first assessment were predictors of subtest performance. In a second analysis, Word Lexicon was added as a proxy of knowledge of the Dutch language and culture. After controlling for Word Lexicon, cultural background became significant for most subtests, suggesting the presence of cultural bias. Subtests assessing technical literacy, such as One-Minute-Reading, Non-Word-Reading, One-Minute-Writing, or Two-Minutes-Spelling, showed more convergence between the two assessments. Less-effective subtests were Naming Pictures, Backward Digit Span, and Verbal and Semantic Fluency. It is concluded that the DST-NL and the standard protocol do not show complete convergence, notably in the lower grades in the multilingual pupil group of our cohort, mainly because dyslexia and literacy difficulties are hard to disentangle.

Comprehensive ecosystem model-experiment synthesis using multiple datasets at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiments: model performance and compensating biases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, Anthony P; Hanson, Paul J; DeKauwe, Martin G

2014-01-01

Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a remarkable wealth of data to test the sensitivities of terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs). In this study, a broad set of 11 TEMs were compared to 22 years of data from two contrasting FACE experiments in temperate forests of the south eastern US the evergreen Duke Forest and the deciduous Oak Ridge forest. We evaluated the models' ability to reproduce observed net primary productivity (NPP), transpiration and Leaf Area index (LAI) in ambient CO2 treatments. Encouragingly, many models simulated annual NPP and transpiration within observed uncertainty. Daily transpiration model errors were often relatedmore » to errors in leaf area phenology and peak LAI. Our analysis demonstrates that the simulation of LAI often drives the simulation of transpiration and hence there is a need to adopt the most appropriate of hypothesis driven methods to simulate and predict LAI. Of the three competing hypotheses determining peak LAI (1) optimisation to maximise carbon export, (2) increasing SLA with canopy depth and (3) the pipe model the pipe model produced LAI closest to the observations. Modelled phenology was either prescribed or based on broader empirical calibrations to climate. In some cases, simulation accuracy was achieved through compensating biases in component variables. For example, NPP accuracy was sometimes achieved with counter-balancing biases in nitrogen use efficiency and nitrogen uptake. Combined analysis of parallel measurements aides the identification of offsetting biases; without which over-confidence in model abilities to predict ecosystem function may emerge, potentially leading to erroneous predictions of change under future climates.« less

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Simultaneous Nanoscale Surface Charge and Topographical Mapping.

PubMed

Perry, David; Al Botros, Rehab; Momotenko, Dmitry; Kinnear, Sophie L; Unwin, Patrick R

2015-07-28

Nanopipettes are playing an increasingly prominent role in nanoscience, for sizing, sequencing, delivery, detection, and mapping interfacial properties. Herein, the question of how to best resolve topography and surface charge effects when using a nanopipette as a probe for mapping in scanning ion conductance microscopy (SICM) is addressed. It is shown that, when a bias modulated (BM) SICM scheme is used, it is possible to map the topography faithfully, while also allowing surface charge to be estimated. This is achieved by applying zero net bias between the electrode in the SICM tip and the one in bulk solution for topographical mapping, with just a small harmonic perturbation of the potential to create an AC current for tip positioning. Then, a net bias is applied, whereupon the ion conductance current becomes sensitive to surface charge. Practically this is optimally implemented in a hopping-cyclic voltammetry mode where the probe is approached at zero net bias at a series of pixels across the surface to reach a defined separation, and then a triangular potential waveform is applied and the current response is recorded. Underpinned with theoretical analysis, including finite element modeling of the DC and AC components of the ionic current flowing through the nanopipette tip, the powerful capabilities of this approach are demonstrated with the probing of interfacial acid-base equilibria and high resolution imaging of surface charge heterogeneities, simultaneously with topography, on modified substrates.

Catastrophic photometric redshift errors: Weak-lensing survey requirements

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Gary; Huterer, Dragan

2010-01-11

We study the sensitivity of weak lensing surveys to the effects of catastrophic redshift errors - cases where the true redshift is misestimated by a significant amount. To compute the biases in cosmological parameters, we adopt an efficient linearized analysis where the redshift errors are directly related to shifts in the weak lensing convergence power spectra. We estimate the number N spec of unbiased spectroscopic redshifts needed to determine the catastrophic error rate well enough that biases in cosmological parameters are below statistical errors of weak lensing tomography. While the straightforward estimate of N spec is ~10 6 we findmore » that using only the photometric redshifts with z ≤ 2.5 leads to a drastic reduction in N spec to ~ 30,000 while negligibly increasing statistical errors in dark energy parameters. Therefore, the size of spectroscopic survey needed to control catastrophic errors is similar to that previously deemed necessary to constrain the core of the z s – z p distribution. We also study the efficacy of the recent proposal to measure redshift errors by cross-correlation between the photo-z and spectroscopic samples. We find that this method requires ~ 10% a priori knowledge of the bias and stochasticity of the outlier population, and is also easily confounded by lensing magnification bias. In conclusion, the cross-correlation method is therefore unlikely to supplant the need for a complete spectroscopic redshift survey of the source population.« less

Using Perturbed Physics Ensembles and Machine Learning to Select Parameters for Reducing Regional Biases in a Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Hawkins, L.; Mote, P.; McNeall, D. J.; Sarah, S.; Wallom, D.; Betts, R. A.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the potential to reduce known summer hot/dry biases over Pacific Northwest in the UK Met Office's atmospheric model (HadAM3P) by simultaneously varying multiple model parameters. The bias-reduction process is done through a series of steps: 1) Generation of perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) through the volunteer computing network weather@home; 2) Using machine learning to train "cheap" and fast statistical emulators of climate model, to rule out regions of parameter spaces that lead to model variants that do not satisfy observational constraints, where the observational constraints (e.g., top-of-atmosphere energy flux, magnitude of annual temperature cycle, summer/winter temperature and precipitation) are introduced sequentially; 3) Designing a new PPE by "pre-filtering" using the emulator results. Steps 1) through 3) are repeated until results are considered to be satisfactory (3 times in our case). The process includes a sensitivity analysis to find dominant parameters for various model output metrics, which reduces the number of parameters to be perturbed with each new PPE. Relative to observational uncertainty, we achieve regional improvements without introducing large biases in other parts of the globe. Our results illustrate the potential of using machine learning to train cheap and fast statistical emulators of climate model, in combination with PPEs in systematic model improvement.

Sad benefit in face working memory: an emotional bias of melancholic depression.

PubMed

Linden, Stefanie C; Jackson, Margaret C; Subramanian, Leena; Healy, David; Linden, David E J

2011-12-01

Emotion biases feature prominently in cognitive theories of depression and are a focus of psychological interventions. However, there is presently no stable neurocognitive marker of altered emotion-cognition interactions in depression. One reason may be the heterogeneity of major depressive disorder. Our aim in the present study was to find an emotional bias that differentiates patients with melancholic depression from controls, and patients with melancholic from those with non-melancholic depression. We used a working memory paradigm for emotional faces, where two faces with angry, happy, neutral, sad or fearful expression had to be retained over one second. Twenty patients with melancholic depression, 20 age-, education- and gender-matched control participants and 20 patients with non-melancholic depression participated in the study. We analysed performance on the working memory task using signal detection measures. We found an interaction between group and emotion on working memory performance that was driven by the higher performance for sad faces compared to other categories in the melancholic group. We computed a measure of "sad benefit", which distinguished melancholic and non-melancholic patients with good sensitivity and specificity. However, replication studies and formal discriminant analysis will be needed in order to assess whether emotion bias in working memory may become a useful diagnostic tool to distinguish these two syndromes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of fluorodeoxyglucose-PET imaging for differentiating benign from malignant pleural effusions: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Porcel, José M; Hernández, Paula; Martínez-Alonso, Montserrat; Bielsa, Silvia; Salud, Antonieta

2015-02-01

The role of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET imaging for diagnosing malignant pleural effusions is not well defined. The aim of this study was to summarize the evidence for its use in ruling in or out the malignant origin of a pleural effusion or thickening. A meta-analysis was conducted of diagnostic accuracy studies published in the Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Embase (inception to June 2013) without language restrictions. Two investigators selected studies that had evaluated the performance of FDG-PET imaging in patients with pleural effusions or thickening, using pleural cytopathology or histopathology as the reference standard for malignancy. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to FDG-PET imaging interpretation (qualitative or semiquantitative), PET imaging equipment (PET vs integrated PET-CT imaging), and/or target population (known lung cancer or malignant pleural mesothelioma). Study quality was assessed using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2. We used a bivariate random-effects model for the analysis and pooling of diagnostic performance measures across studies. Fourteen non-high risk of bias studies, comprising 407 patients with malignant and 232 with benign pleural conditions, met the inclusion criteria. Semiquantitative PET imaging readings had a significantly lower sensitivity for diagnosing malignant effusions than visual assessments (82% vs 91%; P = .026). The pooled test characteristics of integrated PET-CT imaging systems using semiquantitative interpretations for identifying malignant effusions were: sensitivity, 81%; specificity, 74%; positive likelihood ratio (LR), 3.22; negative LR, 0.26; and area under the curve, 0.838. Resultant data were heterogeneous, and spectrum bias should be considered when appraising FDG-PET imaging operating characteristics. The moderate accuracy of PET-CT imaging using semiquantitative readings precludes its routine recommendation for discriminating malignant from benign pleural effusions.

Evaluation of the Aptima HBV Quant assay vs. the COBAS TaqMan HBV test using the high pure system for the quantitation of HBV DNA in plasma and serum samples.

PubMed

Schalasta, Gunnar; Börner, Anna; Speicher, Andrea; Enders, Martin

2018-03-28

Proper management of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection requires monitoring of plasma or serum HBV DNA levels using a highly sensitive nucleic acid amplification test. Because commercially available assays differ in performance, we compared herein the performance of the Hologic Aptima HBV Quant assay (Aptima) to that of the Roche Cobas TaqMan HBV test for use with the high pure system (HPS/CTM). Assay performance was assessed using HBV reference panels as well as plasma and serum samples from chronically HBV-infected patients. Method correlation, analytical sensitivity, precision/reproducibility, linearity, bias and influence of genotype were evaluated. Data analysis was performed using linear regression, Deming correlation analysis and Bland-Altman analysis. Agreement between the assays for the two reference panels was good, with a difference in assay values vs. target <0.5 log. Qualitative assay results for 159 clinical samples showed good concordance (88.1%; κ=0.75; 95% confidence interval: 0.651-0.845). For the 106 samples quantitated by both assays, viral load results were highly correlated (R=0.92) and differed on average by 0.09 log, with 95.3% of the samples being within the 95% limit of agreement of the assays. Linearity for viral loads 1-7 log was excellent for both assays (R2>0.98). The two assays had similar bias and precision across the different genotypes tested at low viral loads (25-1000 IU/mL). Aptima has a performance comparable with that of HPS/CTM, making it suitable for use for HBV infection monitoring. Aptima runs on a fully automated platform (the Panther system) and therefore offers a significantly improved workflow compared with HPS/CTM.

Utility and Safety of Endoscopic Ultrasound With Bronchoscope-Guided Fine-Needle Aspiration in Mediastinal Lymph Node Sampling: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Dhooria, Sahajal; Aggarwal, Ashutosh N; Gupta, Dheeraj; Behera, Digambar; Agarwal, Ritesh

2015-07-01

The use of endoscopic ultrasound with bronchoscope-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-B-FNA) has been described in the evaluation of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. Herein, we conduct a meta-analysis to estimate the overall diagnostic yield and safety of EUS-B-FNA combined with endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA), in the diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The PubMed and EmBase databases were searched for studies reporting the outcomes of EUS-B-FNA in diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The study quality was assessed using the QualSyst tool. The yield of EBUS-TBNA alone and the combined procedure (EBUS-TBNA and EUS-B-FNA) were analyzed by calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each study, and pooling the study results using a random effects model. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed for individual outcomes. The additional diagnostic gain of EUS-B-FNA over EBUS-TBNA was calculated using proportion meta-analysis. Our search yielded 10 studies (1,080 subjects with mediastinal lymphadenopathy). The sensitivity of the combined procedure was significantly higher than EBUS-TBNA alone (91% vs 80%, P = .004), in staging of lung cancer (4 studies, 465 subjects). The additional diagnostic gain of EUS-B-FNA over EBUS-TBNA was 7.6% in the diagnosis of mediastinal adenopathy. No serious complication of EUS-B-FNA procedure was reported. Clinical and statistical heterogeneity was present without any evidence of publication bias. Combining EBUS-TBNA and EUS-B-FNA is an effective and safe method, superior to EBUS-TBNA alone, in the diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. Good quality randomized controlled trials are required to confirm the results of this systematic review. Copyright © 2015 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Exposure to ionizing radiation during dental X-rays is not associated with risk of developing meningioma: a meta-analysis based on seven case-control studies.

PubMed

Xu, Ping; Luo, Hong; Huang, Guang-Lei; Yin, Xin-Hai; Luo, Si-Yang; Song, Ju-Kun

2015-01-01

Many observational studies have found that exposure to dental X-rays is associated with the risk of development of meningioma. However, these findings are inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma. The PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify eligible studies. Summary odds ratio (OR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to compute the risk of meningioma development according to heterogeneity. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to further explore the potential heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed. Seven case-control studies involving 6,174 patients and 19,459 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Neither exposure to dental X-rays nor performance of full-mouth panorex X-rays was associated with an increased risk of development of meningioma (overall: OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.70-1.32; dental X-rays: OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.89-1.25; panorex X-rays: OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.76-1.34). However, exposure to bitewing X-rays was associated with a slightly increased risk of development of meningioma (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.28-2.34). Similar results were obtained in the subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Little evidence of publication bias was observed. Based on the currently limited data, there is no association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma. However, these results should be cautiously interpreted because of the heterogeneity among studies. Additional large, high-quality clinical trials are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma.

Pituitary block with gonadotrophin-releasing hormone antagonist during intrauterine insemination cycles: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Vitagliano, A; Saccone, G; Noventa, M; Borini, A; Coccia, M E; Nardelli, G B; Saccardi, C; Bifulco, G; Litta, P S; Andrisani, A

2018-06-03

Several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have investigated the usefulness of pituitary block with gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonists during intrauterine insemination (IUI) cycles, with conflicting results. The aim of the present systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs was to evaluate the effectiveness of GnRH antagonist administration as an intervention to improve the success of IUI cycles. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE, Sciencedirect) and clinical registers were searched from their inception until October 2017. Randomised controlled trials of infertile women undergoing one or more IUI stimulated cycles with GnRH antagonists compared with a control group. The primary outcomes were ongoing pregnancy/live birth rate (OPR/LBR) and clinical pregnancy rate (CPR). Pooled results were expressed as odds ratio (OR) or mean differences with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Sources of heterogeneity were investigated through sensitivity and subgroups analysis. The body of evidence was rated using GRADE methodology. Publication bias was assessed with funnel plot, Begg's and Egger's tests. Fifteen RCTs were included (3253 IUI cycles, 2345 participants). No differences in OPR/LBR (OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.82-1.57, P = 0.44) and CPR (OR 1.28, 95% CI 0.97-1.69, P = 0.08) were found. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses did not provide statistical changes in pooled results. The body of evidence was rated as low (GRADE 2/4). No publication bias was detected. Pituitary block with GnRH antagonists does not improve OPR/LBR and CPR in women undergoing IUI cycles. Pituitary block with GnRH antagonists does not improve the success of IUI cycles. © 2018 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Effectiveness of the 23-Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine (PPV23) against Pneumococcal Disease in the Elderly: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Falkenhorst, Gerhard; Remschmidt, Cornelius; Harder, Thomas; Hummers-Pradier, Eva; Wichmann, Ole; Bogdan, Christian

2017-01-01

Routine vaccination of elderly people against pneumococcal diseases is recommended in many countries. National guidelines differ, recommending either the 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23), the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13) or both. Considering the ongoing debate on the effectiveness of PPV23, we performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of the vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (VE) of PPV23 against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal pneumonia in adults aged ≥60 years living in industrialized countries. We searched for pertinent clinical trials and observational studies in databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. We assessed the risk of bias of individual studies using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool for randomized controlled trials and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies. We rated the overall quality of the evidence by GRADE criteria. We performed meta-analyses of studies grouped by outcome and study design using random-effects models. We applied a sensitivity analysis excluding studies with high risk of bias. We identified 17 eligible studies. Pooled VE against IPD (by any serotype) was 73% (95%CI: 10-92%) in four clinical trials, 45% (95%CI: 15-65%) in three cohort studies, and 59% (95%CI: 35-74%) in three case-control studies. After excluding studies with high risk of bias, pooled VE against pneumococcal pneumonia (by any serotype) was 64% (95%CI: 35-80%) in two clinical trials and 48% (95%CI: 25-63%) in two cohort studies. Higher VE estimates in trials (follow-up ~2.5 years) than in observational studies (follow-up ~5 years) may indicate waning protection. Unlike previous meta-analyses, we excluded two trials with high risk of bias regarding the outcome pneumococcal pneumonia, because diagnosis was based on serologic methods with insufficient specificity. Our meta-analysis revealed significant VE of PPV23 against both IPD and pneumococcal pneumonia by any serotype in the elderly, comparable to the efficacy of PCV13 against vaccine-serotype disease in a recent clinical trial in elderly people. Due to its broader serotype coverage and the decrease of PCV13 serotypes among adults resulting from routine infant immunization with PCV13, PPV23 continues to play an important role for protecting adults against IPD and pneumococcal pneumonia.

Perception and Bias in the Processing of Compound versus Phrasal Stress: Evidence from Event-Related Brain Potentials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCauley, Stewart M; Hestvik, Arild; Vogel, Irene

2013-01-01

Previous research using picture/word matching tasks has demonstrated a tendency to incorrectly interpret phrasally stressed strings as compounds. Using event-related potentials, we sought to determine whether this pattern stems from poor perceptual sensitivity to the compound/phrasal stress distinction, or from a post-perceptual bias in behavioral…

Role of miR-1 expression in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC): A bioinformatics study based on GEO, ArrayExpress microarrays and TCGA database.

PubMed

Yan, Hai-Biao; Huang, Jia-Cheng; Chen, You-Rong; Yao, Jian-Ni; Cen, Wei-Ning; Li, Jia-Yi; Jiang, Yi-Fan; Chen, Gang; Li, Sheng-Hua

2018-02-01

To investigate the clinical value and potential molecular mechanisms of miR-1 in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). We searched the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), ArrayExpress, several online publication databases and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Continuous variable meta-analysis and diagnostic meta-analysis were conducted, both in Stata 14, to show the expression of miR-1 in ccRCC. Furthermore, we acquired the potential targets of miR-1 from datasets that transfected miR-1 into ccRCC cells, online prediction databases, differentially expressed genes from TCGA and literature. Subsequently bioinformatics analysis based on aforementioned selected target genes was conducted. The combined effect was -0.92 with the 95% confidence interval (CI) of -1.08 to -0.77 based on fixed effect model (I 2  = 81.3%, P < 0.001). No publication bias was found in our investigation. Sensitivity analysis showed that GSE47582 and 2 TCGA studies might cause heterogeneity. After eliminating them, the combined effect was -0.47 (95%CI: -0.78, -0.16) with I 2  = 18.3%. As for the diagnostic meta-analysis, the combined sensitivity and specificity were 0.90 (95%CI: 0.61, 0.98) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.39, 0.82). The area under the curve (AUC) in the summarized receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve was 0.83 (95%CI: 0.80, 0.86). No publication bias was found (P = 0.15). We finally got 67 genes which were defined the promising target genes of miR-1 in ccRCC. The most three significant KEGG pathways based on the aforementioned genes were Complement and coagulation cascades, ECM-receptor interaction and Focal adhesion. The downregulation of miR-1 might play an important role in ccRCC by targeting its target genes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of problem-based learning on development of nursing students' critical thinking: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kong, Ling-Na; Qin, Bo; Zhou, Ying-qing; Mou, Shao-yu; Gao, Hui-Ming

2014-03-01

The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to estimate the effectiveness of problem-based learning in developing nursing students' critical thinking. Searches of PubMed, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Proquest, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were undertaken to identify randomized controlled trails from 1965 to December 2012, comparing problem-based learning with traditional lectures on the effectiveness of development of nursing students' critical thinking, with no language limitation. The mesh-terms or key words used in the search were problem-based learning, thinking, critical thinking, nursing, nursing education, nurse education, nurse students, nursing students and pupil nurse. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and extracted data. Quality assessment was conducted independently by two reviewers using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias Tool. We analyzed critical thinking scores (continuous outcomes) using a standardized mean difference (SMD) or weighted mean difference (WMD) with a 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and I(2) statistic. Publication bias was assessed by means of funnel plot and Egger's test of asymmetry. Nine articles representing eight randomized controlled trials were included in the meta-analysis. Most studies were of low risk of bias. The pooled effect size showed problem-based learning was able to improve nursing students' critical thinking (overall critical thinking scores SMD=0.33, 95%CI=0.13-0.52, P=0.0009), compared with traditional lectures. There was low heterogeneity (overall critical thinking scores I(2)=45%, P=0.07) in the meta-analysis. No significant publication bias was observed regarding overall critical thinking scores (P=0.536). Sensitivity analysis showed that the result of our meta-analysis was reliable. Most effect sizes for subscales of the California Critical Thinking Dispositions Inventory (CCTDI) and Bloom's Taxonomy favored problem-based learning, while effect sizes for all subscales of the California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST) and most subscales of the Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal (WCGTA) were inconclusive. The results of the current meta-analysis indicate that problem-based learning might help nursing students to improve their critical thinking. More research with larger sample size and high quality in different nursing educational contexts are required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of linear CROW gyroscopes and comparison to a single-resonator gyroscope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani-Aghaie, Kiarash; Digonnet, Michel J. F.

2013-03-01

This study presents numerical simulations of the maximum sensitivity to absolute rotation of a number of coupled resonator optical waveguide (CROW) gyroscopes consisting of a linear array of coupled ring resonators. It examines in particular the impact on the maximum sensitivity of the number of rings, of the relative spatial orientation of the rings (folded and unfolded), of various sequences of coupling ratios between the rings and various sequences of ring dimensions, and of the number of input/output waveguides (one or two) used to inject and collect the light. In all configurations the sensitivity is maximized by proper selection of the coupling ratio(s) and phase bias, and compared to the maximum sensitivity of a resonant waveguide optical gyroscope (RWOG) utilizing a single ring-resonator waveguide with the same radius and loss as each ring in the CROW. Simulations show that although some configurations are more sensitive than others, in spite of numerous claims to the contrary made in the literature, in all configurations the maximum sensitivity is independent of the number of rings, and does not exceed the maximum sensitivity of an RWOG. There are no sensitivity benefits to utilizing any of these linear CROWs for absolute rotation sensing. For equal total footprint, an RWOG is √N times more sensitive, and it is easier to fabricate and stabilize.

The association between dietary zinc intake and risk of pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Li; Gai, Xuesong

2017-06-30

Previous reports have suggested a potential association on dietary zinc intake with the risk of pancreatic cancer. Since the associations between different studies were controversial, we therefore conducted a meta-analysis to reassess the relationship between dietary zinc intake and pancreatic cancer risk. A comprehensive search from the databases of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Medline was performed until January 31, 2017. Relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) derived by using random effect model was used. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted. Our meta-analysis was based on seven studies involving 1659 cases, including two prospective cohort studies and five case-control studies. The total RR of pancreatic cancer risk for the highest versus the lowest categories of dietary zinc intake was 0.798 (0.621-0.984), with its significant heterogeneity among studies ( I 2 =58.2%, P =0.026). The average Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) score was 7.29, suggesting a high quality. There was no publication bias in the meta-analysis about dietary zinc intake on the risk of pancreatic cancer. Subgroup analyses showed that dietary zinc intake could reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer in case-control studies and among American populations. In conclusion, we found that highest category of dietary zinc intake can significantly reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer, especially among American populations. © 2017 The Author(s).

On the geodetic applications of simultaneous range-differencing to LAGEOS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pablis, E. C.

1982-01-01

The possibility of improving the accuracy of geodetic results by use of simultaneously observed ranges to Lageos, in a differencing mode, from pairs of stations was studied. Simulation tests show that model errors can be effectively minimized by simultaneous range differencing (SRD) for a rather broad class of network satellite pass configurations. The methods of least squares approximation are compared with monomials and Chebyshev polynomials and the cubic spline interpolation. Analysis of three types of orbital biases (radial, along- and across track) shows that radial biases are the ones most efficiently minimized in the SRC mode. The degree to which the other two can be minimized depends on the type of parameters under estimation and the geometry of the problem. Sensitivity analyses of the SRD observation show that for baseline length estimations the most useful data are those collected in a direction parallel to the baseline and at a low elevation. Estimating individual baseline lengths with respect to an assumed but fixed orbit not only decreases the cost, but it further reduces the effects of model biases on the results as opposed to a network solution. Analogous results and conclusions are obtained for the estimates of the coordinates of the pole.

The effect of psychological stress and expectation on auditory perception: A signal detection analysis.

PubMed

Hoskin, Robert; Hunter, Mike D; Woodruff, Peter W R

2014-11-01

Both psychological stress and predictive signals relating to expected sensory input are believed to influence perception, an influence which, when disrupted, may contribute to the generation of auditory hallucinations. The effect of stress and semantic expectation on auditory perception was therefore examined in healthy participants using an auditory signal detection task requiring the detection of speech from within white noise. Trait anxiety was found to predict the extent to which stress influenced response bias, resulting in more anxious participants adopting a more liberal criterion, and therefore experiencing more false positives, when under stress. While semantic expectation was found to increase sensitivity, its presence also generated a shift in response bias towards reporting a signal, suggesting that the erroneous perception of speech became more likely. These findings provide a potential cognitive mechanism that may explain the impact of stress on hallucination-proneness, by suggesting that stress has the tendency to alter response bias in highly anxious individuals. These results also provide support for the idea that top-down processes such as those relating to semantic expectation may contribute to the generation of auditory hallucinations. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Validity of empirical models of exposure in asphalt paving

PubMed Central

Burstyn, I; Boffetta, P; Burr, G; Cenni, A; Knecht, U; Sciarra, G; Kromhout, H

2002-01-01

Aims: To investigate the validity of empirical models of exposure to bitumen fume and benzo(a)pyrene, developed for a historical cohort study of asphalt paving in Western Europe. Methods: Validity was evaluated using data from the USA, Italy, and Germany not used to develop the original models. Correlation between observed and predicted exposures was examined. Bias and precision were estimated. Results: Models were imprecise. Furthermore, predicted bitumen fume exposures tended to be lower (-70%) than concentrations found during paving in the USA. This apparent bias might be attributed to differences between Western European and USA paving practices. Evaluation of the validity of the benzo(a)pyrene exposure model revealed a similar to expected effect of re-paving and a larger than expected effect of tar use. Overall, benzo(a)pyrene models underestimated exposures by 51%. Conclusions: Possible bias as a result of underestimation of the impact of coal tar on benzo(a)pyrene exposure levels must be explored in sensitivity analysis of the exposure–response relation. Validation of the models, albeit limited, increased our confidence in their applicability to exposure assessment in the historical cohort study of cancer risk among asphalt workers. PMID:12205236

Individual differences in conflict detection during reasoning.

PubMed

Frey, Darren; Johnson, Eric D; De Neys, Wim

2018-05-01

Decades of reasoning and decision-making research have established that human judgment is often biased by intuitive heuristics. Recent "error" or bias detection studies have focused on reasoners' abilities to detect whether their heuristic answer conflicts with logical or probabilistic principles. A key open question is whether there are individual differences in this bias detection efficiency. Here we present three studies in which co-registration of different error detection measures (confidence, response time and confidence response time) allowed us to assess bias detection sensitivity at the individual participant level in a range of reasoning tasks. The results indicate that although most individuals show robust bias detection, as indexed by increased latencies and decreased confidence, there is a subgroup of reasoners who consistently fail to do so. We discuss theoretical and practical implications for the field.

Cross-National Estimates of the Effects of Family Background on Student Achievement: A Sensitivity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nonoyama-Tarumi, Yuko

2008-01-01

This article uses the data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2000 to examine whether the influence of family background on educational achievement is sensitive to different measures of the family's socio-economic status (SES). The study finds that, when a multidimensional measure of SES is used, the family background has a stronger influence on achievement across countries than if the simpler measure of SES is used. The new measure, which incorporated aspects of parental occupation, education and cultural resources, was not biased towards more wealthy nations, Western nations, or urban population. However, when a proxy of wealth was included in the measure of SES, this reduced the other measured effects of family background on achievement in many countries.

Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

2016-06-21

When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

A structured framework for assessing sensitivity to missing data assumptions in longitudinal clinical trials.

PubMed

Mallinckrodt, C H; Lin, Q; Molenberghs, M

2013-01-01

The objective of this research was to demonstrate a framework for drawing inference from sensitivity analyses of incomplete longitudinal clinical trial data via a re-analysis of data from a confirmatory clinical trial in depression. A likelihood-based approach that assumed missing at random (MAR) was the primary analysis. Robustness to departure from MAR was assessed by comparing the primary result to those from a series of analyses that employed varying missing not at random (MNAR) assumptions (selection models, pattern mixture models and shared parameter models) and to MAR methods that used inclusive models. The key sensitivity analysis used multiple imputation assuming that after dropout the trajectory of drug-treated patients was that of placebo treated patients with a similar outcome history (placebo multiple imputation). This result was used as the worst reasonable case to define the lower limit of plausible values for the treatment contrast. The endpoint contrast from the primary analysis was - 2.79 (p = .013). In placebo multiple imputation, the result was - 2.17. Results from the other sensitivity analyses ranged from - 2.21 to - 3.87 and were symmetrically distributed around the primary result. Hence, no clear evidence of bias from missing not at random data was found. In the worst reasonable case scenario, the treatment effect was 80% of the magnitude of the primary result. Therefore, it was concluded that a treatment effect existed. The structured sensitivity framework of using a worst reasonable case result based on a controlled imputation approach with transparent and debatable assumptions supplemented a series of plausible alternative models under varying assumptions was useful in this specific situation and holds promise as a generally useful framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A human fecal contamination index for ranking impaired ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Human fecal pollution of surface water remains a public health concern worldwide. As a result, there is a growing interest in the application of human-associated fecal source identification quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) technologies for recreational water quality risk management. The transition from a research subject to a management tool requires the integration of standardized water sampling, laboratory, and data analysis procedures. In this study, a standardized HF183/BacR287 qPCR method was combined with a water sampling strategy and Bayesian data algorithm to establish a human fecal contamination index that can be used to rank impaired recreational water sites polluted with human waste. Stability and bias of index predictions were investigated under various parameters including siteswith different pollution levels, sampling period time range (1-15 weeks), and number of qPCR replicates per sample (2-14 replicates). Sensitivity analyses were conducted with simulated data sets (100 iterations) seeded with HF183/BacR287 qPCR laboratory measurements from water samples collected from three Southern California sites (588 qPCR measurements). Findings suggest that site ranking is feasible and that all parameters tested influence stability and bias in human fecal contamination indexscoring. Trends identified by sensitivity analyses will provide managers with the information needed to design and conduct field studies to rank impaired recreational water sites based

Galectin-3 Performance in Histologic and Cytologic Assessment of Thyroid Nodules: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Trimboli, Pierpaolo; Virili, Camilla; Romanelli, Francesco; Crescenzi, Anna; Giovanella, Luca

2017-01-01

The literature on Galectin-3 (Gal-3) was systematically reviewed to achieve more robust information on its histologic reliability in identifying thyroid cancers and on the concordance between Gal-3 test in histologic and cytologic samples. A computer search of the PubMed and Scopus databases was conducted by combinations of the terms thyroid and Gal-3. Initially, 545 articles were found and, after their critical review, 52 original papers were finally included. They reported 8172 nodules with histologic evaluation of Gal-3, of which 358 with also preoperative FNAC Gal-3 assessment. At histology, Gal-3 sensitivity was 87% (95% confidence intervals [CI] from 86% to 88%), and specificity 87% (95% CI from 86% to 88%); in both cases, we found heterogeneity (I2 85% and 93%, respectively) and significant publication bias (p < 0.001). The pooled rate of positive Gal-3 at fine needle aspiration (FNAC) among cancers with histologically proven Gal-3 positivity was 94% (95% CI from 89% to 97%), with neither heterogeneity (I2 14.5%) nor bias (p = 0.086). These data show high reliability of Gal-3 for thyroid cancer at histology, while its sensitivity on FNAC samples is lower. The limits of cytologic preparations and interpretation of Gal-3 results have to be solved. PMID:28800068

Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations.

PubMed

Braconnot, Pascale; Kageyama, Masa

2015-11-13

Simulations of the climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago, and of the Mid-Holocene (MH), 6000 years ago, allow an analysis of climate feedbacks in climate states that are radically different from today. The analyses of cloud and surface albedo feedbacks show that the shortwave cloud feedback is a major driver of differences between model results. Similar behaviours appear when comparing the LGM and MH simulated changes, highlighting the fingerprint of model physics. Even though the different feedbacks show similarities between the different climate periods, the fact that their relative strength differs from one climate to the other prevents a direct comparison of past and future climate sensitivity. The land-surface feedback also shows large disparities among models even though they all produce positive sea-ice and snow feedbacks. Models have very different sensitivities when considering the vegetation feedback. This feedback has a regional pattern that differs significantly between models and depends on their level of complexity and model biases. Analyses of the MH climate in two versions of the IPSL model provide further indication on the possibilities to assess the role of model biases and model physics on simulated climate changes using past climates for which observations can be used to assess the model results. © 2015 The Author(s).

Sensitivity of the atmospheric water cycle to corrections of the sea surface temperature bias over southern Africa in a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to dynamically downscale global climate projections at high spatial and temporal resolution in order to analyse the atmospheric water cycle. In southern Africa, precipitation pattern were strongly affected by the moisture transport from the southeast Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean and, consequently, by their sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, global ocean models often have deficiencies in resolving regional to local scale ocean currents, e.g. in ocean areas offshore the South African continent. By downscaling global climate projections using RCMs, the biased SSTs from the global forcing data were introduced to the RCMs and affected the results of regional climate projections. In this work, the impact of the SST bias correction on precipitation, evaporation and moisture transport were analysed over southern Africa. For this analysis, several experiments were conducted with the regional climate model REMO using corrected and uncorrected SSTs. In these experiments, a global MPI-ESM-LR historical simulation was downscaled with the regional climate model REMO to a high spatial resolution of 50 × 50 km2 and of 25 × 25 km2 for southern Africa using a double-nesting method. The results showed a distinct impact of the corrected SST on the moisture transport, the meridional vertical circulation and on the precipitation pattern in southern Africa. Furthermore, it was found that the experiment with the corrected SST led to a reduction of the wet bias over southern Africa and to a better agreement with observations as without SST bias corrections.

Expectancy bias in anxious samples

PubMed Central

Cabeleira, Cindy M.; Steinman, Shari A.; Burgess, Melissa M.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Melo, Wilson; Teachman, Bethany A.

2014-01-01

While it is well documented that anxious individuals have negative expectations about the future, it is unclear what cognitive processes give rise to this expectancy bias. Two studies are reported that use the Expectancy Task, which is designed to assess expectancy bias and illuminate its basis. This task presents individuals with valenced scenarios (Positive Valence, Negative Valence, or Conflicting Valence), and then evaluates their tendency to expect subsequent future positive relative to negative events. The Expectancy Task was used with low and high trait anxious (Study 1: N = 32) and anxiety sensitive (Study 2: N = 138) individuals. Results suggest that in the context of physical concerns, both high anxious samples display a less positive expectancy bias. In the context of social concerns, high trait anxious individuals display a negative expectancy bias only when negatively valenced information was previously presented. Overall, this suggests that anxious individuals display a less positive expectancy bias, and that the processes that give rise to this bias may vary by type of situation (e.g., social or physical) or anxiety difficulty. PMID:24798678

Mood and heuristics: the influence of happy and sad states on sensitivity and bias in stereotyping.

PubMed

Park, J; Banaji, M R

2000-06-01

The influence of mood states on the propensity to use heuristics as expressed in stereotypes was examined using signal detection statistics. Participants experienced happy, neutral, or sad moods and "remembered" whether names connoting race (African American, European American) belonged to social categories (criminal, politician, basketball player). Positive mood increased reliance on heuristics, indexed by higher false identification of members of stereotyped groups. Positive mood lowered sensitivity (d'), even among relative experts, and shifted bias (beta) or criterion to be more lenient for stereotypical names. In contrast, sad mood did not disrupt sensitivity and, in fact, revealed the use of a stricter criterion compared with baseline mood. Results support theories that characterize happy mood as a mental state that predisposes reliance on heuristics and sad mood as dampening such reliance.

Sensitivity to social and non-social threats in temperamentally shy children at-risk for anxiety.

PubMed

LoBue, Vanessa; Pérez-Edgar, Koraly

2014-03-01

In the current brief report, we examined threat perception in a group of young children who may be at-risk for anxiety due to extreme temperamental shyness. Results demonstrate specific differences in the processing of social threats: 4- to 7-year-olds in the high-shy group demonstrated a greater bias for social threats (angry faces) than did a comparison group of low-shy children. This pattern did not hold for non-social threats like snakes: Both groups showed an equal bias for the detection of snakes over frogs. The results suggest that children who are tempermentally shy have a heightened sensitivity to social signs of threat early in development. These findings have implications for understanding mechanisms of early threat sensitivity that may predict later socioemotional maladjustment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Departure from the onset-onset rule.

PubMed

Chow, S L

1994-09-01

Using a signal-detection task, the generality of Turvey's (1973) onset-onset rule was tested in our experiments. After seeing, in succession, (1) one or two letters (target display), (2) a multiletter detection display, and (3) a mask display, subjects decided whether or not the letter or letters in the target display reappeared in the succeeding detection display at different levels of detection-display duration in various situations. The subjects' sensitivity was inconsistent with the onset-onset rule. More specifically, sensitivity increased with increases in display duration within a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony of 150 msec. Display duration, however, had no effect on response bias. Nor was there any interaction between display duration and display size in terms of either sensitivity or response bias. The more complicated relationship between display duration and display size does not invalidate the departure from the onset-onset rule.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of remotely delivered interventions using self-monitoring or tailored feedback to change dietary behavior.

PubMed

Teasdale, Natalie; Elhussein, Ahmed; Butcher, Frances; Piernas, Carmen; Cowburn, Gill; Hartmann-Boyce, Jamie; Saksena, Rhea; Scarborough, Peter

2018-02-01

Self-monitoring (SM) of diet and tailored feedback (TF) have been suggested as tools for changing dietary behavior. New technologies allow users to monitor behavior remotely, potentially improving reach, adherence, and outcomes. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to address the following question: are remotely delivered standalone (i.e., no human contact) interventions that use SM or TF effective in changing eating behaviors? Five databases were searched in October 2016 (updated in September 2017). Only randomized controlled trials published after 1990 were included. Trials could include any adult population with no history of disordered eating which delivered an SM or TF intervention without direct contact and recorded actual dietary consumption as an outcome. Three assessors independently screened the search results. Two reviewers extracted the study characteristics, intervention details, and outcomes, and assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane tool. Results were converted to standardized mean differences and incorporated into a 3-level (individuals and outcomes nested in studies) random effects meta-analysis. Twenty-six studies containing 21,262 participants were identified. The majority of the studies were judged to be unclear or at high risk of bias. The meta-analysis showed dietary improvement in the intervention group compared to the control group with a standardized mean difference of 0.17 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.24; P < 0.0001). The I2 statistic for the meta-analysis was 0.77, indicating substantial heterogeneity in results. A "one study removed" sensitivity analysis showed that no single study excessively influenced the results. Standalone interventions containing self-regulatory methods have a small but significant effect on dietary behavior, and integrating these elements could be important in future interventions. However, there was substantial variation in study results that could not be explained by the characteristics we explored, and there were risk-of-bias concerns with the majority of studies.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of remotely delivered interventions using self-monitoring or tailored feedback to change dietary behavior

PubMed Central

Teasdale, Natalie; Elhussein, Ahmed; Butcher, Frances; Piernas, Carmen; Cowburn, Gill; Hartmann-Boyce, Jamie; Saksena, Rhea; Scarborough, Peter

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background Self-monitoring (SM) of diet and tailored feedback (TF) have been suggested as tools for changing dietary behavior. New technologies allow users to monitor behavior remotely, potentially improving reach, adherence, and outcomes. Objective We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to address the following question: are remotely delivered standalone (i.e., no human contact) interventions that use SM or TF effective in changing eating behaviors? Design Five databases were searched in October 2016 (updated in September 2017). Only randomized controlled trials published after 1990 were included. Trials could include any adult population with no history of disordered eating which delivered an SM or TF intervention without direct contact and recorded actual dietary consumption as an outcome. Three assessors independently screened the search results. Two reviewers extracted the study characteristics, intervention details, and outcomes, and assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane tool. Results were converted to standardized mean differences and incorporated into a 3-level (individuals and outcomes nested in studies) random effects meta-analysis. Results Twenty-six studies containing 21,262 participants were identified. The majority of the studies were judged to be unclear or at high risk of bias. The meta-analysis showed dietary improvement in the intervention group compared to the control group with a standardized mean difference of 0.17 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.24; P < 0.0001). The I2 statistic for the meta-analysis was 0.77, indicating substantial heterogeneity in results. A “one study removed” sensitivity analysis showed that no single study excessively influenced the results. Conclusions Standalone interventions containing self-regulatory methods have a small but significant effect on dietary behavior, and integrating these elements could be important in future interventions. However, there was substantial variation in study results that could not be explained by the characteristics we explored, and there were risk-of-bias concerns with the majority of studies. PMID:29529158

An investigation of the matrix sensitivity of refinery gas analysis using gas chromatography with flame ionisation detection.

PubMed

Ferracci, Valerio; Brown, Andrew S; Harris, Peter M; Brown, Richard J C

2015-02-27

The response of a flame ionisation detector (FID) on a gas chromatograph to methane, ethane, propane, i-butane and n-butane in a series of multi-component refinery gas standards was investigated to assess the matrix sensitivity of the instrument. High-accuracy synthetic gas standards, traceable to the International System of Units, were used to minimise uncertainties. The instrument response exhibited a small dependence on the component amount fraction: this behaviour, consistent with that of another FID, was thoroughly characterised over a wide range of component amount fractions and was shown to introduce a negligible bias in the analysis of refinery gas samples, provided a suitable reference standard is employed. No significant effects of the molar volume, density and viscosity of the gas mixtures on the instrument response were observed, indicating that the FID is suitable for the analysis of refinery gas mixtures over a wide range of component amount fractions provided that appropriate drift-correction procedures are employed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cosmology of biased discrete symmetry breaking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelmini, Graciela B.; Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

1988-01-01

The cosmological consequences of spontaneous breaking of an approximate discrete symmetry are studied. The breaking leads to formation of proto-domains of false and true vacuum separated by domain walls of thickness determined by the mass scale of the model. The cosmological evolution of the walls is extremely sensitive to the magnitude of the biasing; several scenarios are possible, depending on the interplay between the surface tension on the walls and the volume pressure from the biasing. Walls may disappear almost immediately after they form, or may live long enough to dominate the energy density of the Universe and cause power-law inflation. Limits are obtained on the biasing that characterizes each possible scenario.

Ovarian control of nectar collection in the honey bee (Apis mellifera).

PubMed

Siegel, Adam J; Freedman, Colin; Page, Robert E

2012-01-01

Honey bees are a model system for the study of division of labor. Worker bees demonstrate a foraging division of labor (DOL) by biasing collection towards carbohydrates (nectar) or protein (pollen). The Reproductive ground-plan hypothesis of Amdam et al. proposes that foraging DOL is regulated by the networks that controlled foraging behavior during the reproductive life cycle of honey bee ancestors. Here we test a proposed mechanism through which the ovary of the facultatively sterile worker impacts foraging bias. The proposed mechanism suggests that the ovary has a regulatory effect on sucrose sensitivity, and sucrose sensitivity impacts nectar loading. We tested this mechanism by measuring worker ovary size (ovariole number), sucrose sensitivity, and sucrose solution load size collected from a rate-controlled artificial feeder. We found a significant interaction between ovariole number and sucrose sensitivity on sucrose solution load size when using low concentration nectar. This supports our proposed mechanism. As nectar and pollen loading are not independent, a mechanism impacting nectar load size would also impact pollen load size.

How to explain receptivity to conjunction-fallacy inhibition training: evidence from the Iowa gambling task.

PubMed

Cassotti, Mathieu; Moutier, Sylvain

2010-04-01

Intuitive predictions and judgments under conditions of uncertainty are often mediated by judgment heuristics that sometimes lead to biases. Using the classical conjunction bias example, the present study examines the relationship between receptivity to metacognitive executive training and emotion-based learning ability indexed by Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) performance. After completing a computerised version of the IGT, participants were trained to avoid conjunction bias on a frequency judgment task derived from the works of Tversky and Kahneman. Pre- and post-test performances were assessed via another probability judgment task. Results clearly showed that participants who produced a biased answer despite the experimental training (individual patterns of the biased --> biased type) mainly had less emotion-based learning ability in IGT. Better emotion-based learning ability was observed in participants whose response pattern was biased --> logical. These findings argue in favour of the capacity of the human mind/brain to overcome reasoning bias when trained under executive programming conditions and as a function of emotional warning sensitivity. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Fast and Sensitive New Satellite SO2 Retrieval Algorithm based on Principal Component Analysis: Application to the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Can; Joiner, Joanna; Krotkov, A.; Bhartia, Pawan K.

2013-01-01

We describe a new algorithm to retrieve SO2 from satellite-measured hyperspectral radiances. We employ the principal component analysis technique in regions with no significant SO2 to capture radiance variability caused by both physical processes (e.g., Rayleigh and Raman scattering and ozone absorption) and measurement artifacts. We use the resulting principal components and SO2 Jacobians calculated with a radiative transfer model to directly estimate SO2 vertical column density in one step. Application to the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) radiance spectra in 310.5-340 nm demonstrates that this approach can greatly reduce biases in the operational OMI product and decrease the noise by a factor of 2, providing greater sensitivity to anthropogenic emissions. The new algorithm is fast, eliminates the need for instrument-specific radiance correction schemes, and can be easily adapted to other sensors. These attributes make it a promising technique for producing longterm, consistent SO2 records for air quality and climate research.

Asymmetric noise sensitivity of pulse trains in an excitable microlaser with delayed optical feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrien, Soizic; Krauskopf, Bernd; Broderick, Neil G. R.; Andréoli, Louis; Selmi, Foued; Braive, Rémy; Beaudoin, Grégoire; Sagnes, Isabelle; Barbay, Sylvain

2017-10-01

A semiconductor micropillar laser with delayed optical feedback is considered. In the excitable regime, we show that a single optical perturbation can trigger a train of pulses that is sustained for a finite duration. The distribution of the pulse train duration exhibits an exponential behavior characteristic of a noise-induced process driven by uncorrelated white noise present in the system. The comparison of experimental observations with theoretical and numerical analysis of a minimal model yields excellent agreement. Importantly, the random switch-off process takes place between two attractors of different nature: an equilibrium and a periodic orbit. Our analysis shows that there is a small time window during which the pulsations are very sensitive to noise, and this explains the observed strong bias toward switch-off. These results raise the possibility of all optical control of the pulse train duration that may have an impact for practical applications in photonics and may also apply to the dynamics of other noise-driven excitable systems with delayed feedback.

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Science Based Human Reliability Analysis: Using Digital Nuclear Power Plant Simulators for Human Reliability Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth

Nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators are proliferating in academic research institutions and national laboratories in response to the availability of affordable, digital simulator platforms. Accompanying the new research facilities is a renewed interest in using data collected in NPP simulators for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) research. An experiment conducted in The Ohio State University (OSU) NPP Simulator Facility develops data collection methods and analytical tools to improve use of simulator data in HRA. In the pilot experiment, student operators respond to design basis accidents in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility. Thirty-three undergraduate and graduate engineering students participated in the research. Following each accident scenario, student operators completed a survey about perceived simulator biases and watched a video of the scenario. During the video, they periodically recorded their perceived strength of significant Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) such as Stress. This dissertation reviews three aspects of simulator-based research using the data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility: First, a qualitative comparison of student operator performance to computer simulations of expected operator performance generated by the Information Decision Action Crew (IDAC) HRA method. Areas of comparison include procedure steps, timing of operator actions, and PSFs. Second, development of a quantitative model of the simulator bias introduced by the simulator environment. Two types of bias are defined: Environmental Bias and Motivational Bias. This research examines Motivational Bias--that is, the effect of the simulator environment on an operator's motivations, goals, and priorities. A bias causal map is introduced to model motivational bias interactions in the OSU experiment. Data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility are analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Data include crew characteristics, operator surveys, and time to recognize and diagnose the accident in the scenario. These models estimate how the effects of the scenario conditions are mediated by simulator bias, and demonstrate how to quantify the strength of the simulator bias. Third, development of a quantitative model of subjective PSFs based on objective data (plant parameters, alarms, etc.) and PSF values reported by student operators. The objective PSF model is based on the PSF network in the IDAC HRA method. The final model is a mixed effects Bayesian hierarchical linear regression model. The subjective PSF model includes three factors: The Environmental PSF, the simulator Bias, and the Context. The Environmental Bias is mediated by an operator sensitivity coefficient that captures the variation in operator reactions to plant conditions. The data collected in the pilot experiments are not expected to reflect professional NPP operator performance, because the students are still novice operators. However, the models used in this research and the methods developed to analyze them demonstrate how to consider simulator bias in experiment design and how to use simulator data to enhance the technical basis of a complex HRA method. The contributions of the research include a framework for discussing simulator bias, a quantitative method for estimating simulator bias, a method for obtaining operator-reported PSF values, and a quantitative method for incorporating the variability in operator perception into PSF models. The research demonstrates applications of Structural Equation Modeling and hierarchical Bayesian linear regression models in HRA. Finally, the research demonstrates the benefits of using student operators as a test platform for HRA research.

Just War and Postmodern Warfare: A German Case Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

warfare construct, Germany is shaping a military concept based on recent conflicts and unfettered by biases of conventional strategies, organizations...remain sovereign while subconsciously evolving toward liberal democratic ideas. In respecting each country’s political sensitivities, Germany’s...before exhausting all diplomatic, economic and information instruments. Whereas the term AU/ACSC/PINSON/AY15 13 “interests” may bias the United

On the Upward Bias of the Dissimilarity Index and Its Corrections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazza, Angelo; Punzo, Antonio

2015-01-01

The dissimilarity index of Duncan and Duncan is widely used in a broad range of contexts to assess the overall extent of segregation in the allocation of two groups in two or more units. Its sensitivity to random allocation implies an upward bias with respect to the unknown amount of systematic segregation. In this article, following a multinomial…

Counselor Bias in Working with Gay Men and Lesbians: A Commentary on Barret and Barzan (1996).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donaldson, Steven M.

1998-01-01

Comments on R. Barret and R. Barzan (1996), who do well in exploring the spiritual experiences of gay men and lesbians but in the process set up a precedent of reverse discrimination against clients whose religious beliefs proscribe homosexual behavior. Suggestions are offered to sensitize counseling professionals to such bias. (Author/MKA)

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.

PubMed

Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N

2018-01-01

A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.

Radiation tolerant combinational logic cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maki, Gary R. (Inventor); Whitaker, Sterling (Inventor); Gambles, Jody W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A system has a reduced sensitivity to Single Event Upset and/or Single Event Transient(s) compared to traditional logic devices. In a particular embodiment, the system includes an input, a logic block, a bias stage, a state machine, and an output. The logic block is coupled to the input. The logic block is for implementing a logic function, receiving a data set via the input, and generating a result f by applying the data set to the logic function. The bias stage is coupled to the logic block. The bias stage is for receiving the result from the logic block and presenting it to the state machine. The state machine is coupled to the bias stage. The state machine is for receiving, via the bias stage, the result generated by the logic block. The state machine is configured to retain a state value for the system. The state value is typically based on the result generated by the logic block. The output is coupled to the state machine. The output is for providing the value stored by the state machine. Some embodiments of the invention produce dual rail outputs Q and Q'. The logic block typically contains combinational logic and is similar, in size and transistor configuration, to a conventional CMOS combinational logic design. However, only a very small portion of the circuits of these embodiments, is sensitive to Single Event Upset and/or Single Event Transients.

Analysis of codon usage bias of envelope glycoprotein genes in nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) and its relation to evolution.

PubMed

Zhao, Yongchao; Zheng, Hao; Xu, Anying; Yan, Donghua; Jiang, Zijian; Qi, Qi; Sun, Jingchen

2016-08-24

Analysis of codon usage bias is an extremely versatile method using in furthering understanding of the genetic and evolutionary paths of species. Codon usage bias of envelope glycoprotein genes in nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) has remained largely unexplored at present. Hence, the codon usage bias of NPV envelope glycoprotein was analyzed here to reveal the genetic and evolutionary relationships between different viral species in baculovirus genus. A total of 9236 codons from 18 different species of NPV of the baculovirus genera were used to perform this analysis. Glycoprotein of NPV exhibits weaker codon usage bias. Neutrality plot analysis and correlation analysis of effective number of codons (ENC) values indicate that natural selection is the main factor influencing codon usage bias, and that the impact of mutation pressure is relatively smaller. Another cluster analysis shows that the kinship or evolutionary relationships of these viral species can be divided into two broad categories despite all of these 18 species are from the same baculovirus genus. There are many elements that can affect codon bias, such as the composition of amino acids, mutation pressure, natural selection, gene expression level, and etc. In the meantime, cluster analysis also illustrates that codon usage bias of virus envelope glycoprotein can serve as an effective means of evolutionary classification in baculovirus genus.

Association between ambient air pollution and diabetes mellitus in Europe and North America: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Eze, Ikenna C; Hemkens, Lars G; Bucher, Heiner C; Hoffmann, Barbara; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Schikowski, Tamara; Probst-Hensch, Nicole M

2015-05-01

Air pollution is hypothesized to be a risk factor for diabetes. Epidemiological evidence is inconsistent and has not been systematically evaluated. We systematically reviewed epidemiological evidence on the association between air pollution and diabetes, and synthesized results of studies on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We systematically searched electronic literature databases (last search, 29 April 2014) for studies reporting the association between air pollution (particle concentration or traffic exposure) and diabetes (type 1, type 2, or gestational). We systematically evaluated risk of bias and role of potential confounders in all studies. We synthesized reported associations with T2DM in meta-analyses using random-effects models and conducted various sensitivity analyses. We included 13 studies (8 on T2DM, 2 on type 1, 3 on gestational diabetes), all conducted in Europe or North America. Five studies were longitudinal, 5 cross-sectional, 2 case-control, and 1 ecologic. Risk of bias, air pollution assessment, and confounder control varied across studies. Dose-response effects were not reported. Meta-analyses of 3 studies on PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter) and 4 studies on NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) showed increased risk of T2DM by 8-10% per 10-μg/m3 increase in exposure [PM2.5: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.18); NO2: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.17)]. Associations were stronger in females. Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. Existing evidence indicates a positive association of air pollution and T2DM risk, albeit there is high risk of bias. High-quality studies assessing dose-response effects are needed. Research should be expanded to developing countries where outdoor and indoor air pollution are high.

Analytical evaluation of the novel Lumipulse G BRAHMS procalcitonin immunoassay.

PubMed

Ruzzenente, Orazio; Salvagno, Gian Luca; Gelati, Matteo; Lippi, Giuseppe

2016-12-01

This study was designed to evaluate the analytical performance of the novel Lumipulse G1200 BRAHMS procalcitonin (PCT) immunoassay. This analytical evaluation encompassed the calculation of the limit of blank (LOB), limit of detection (LOD), functional sensitivity, intra- and inter-assay imprecision, confirmation of linearity and a comparison with the Vidas BRAHMS PCT assay. The LOB, LOD and functional sensitivity were 0.0010 ng/mL, 0.0016 ng/mL and 0.008 ng/mL, respectively. The total analytical imprecision was found to be 2.1% and the linearity was excellent (r=1.00) in the range of concentrations between 0.006-75.5 ng/mL. The correlation coefficient with Vidas BRAHMS PCT was 0.995 and the equation of the Passing and Bablok regression analysis was [Lumipulse G BRAHMS PCT]=0.76×[Vidas BRAHMS PCT]+0.04. The mean overall bias of Lumipulse G BRAHMS PCT versus Vidas BRAHMS PCT was -3.03 ng/mL (95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.32 to -1.74 ng/mL), whereas the mean bias in samples with PCT concentration between 0-10 ng/mL was -0.49 ng/mL (95% CI: -0.77 to -0.24 ng/mL). The diagnostic agreement was 100% at 0.5 ng/mL, 97% at 2.0 ng/mL and 95% at 10 ng/mL, respectively. These results attest that Lumipulse G BRAHMS PCT exhibits excellent analytical performance, among the best of the methods currently available on the diagnostic market. However, the significant bias compared to the Vidas BRAHMS PCT suggests that the methods cannot be used interchangeably.

Comparisons of Upper Tropospheric Humidity Retrievals from TOVS and METEOSAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Escoffier, C.; Bates, J.; Chedin, A.; Rossow, W. B.; Schmetz, J.

1999-01-01

Two different methods for retrieving Upper Tropospheric Humidities (UTH) from the TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) instruments aboard NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented and compared. The first one, from the Environmental Technology Laboratory, computed by J. Bates and D. Jackson (hereafter BJ method), estimates UTH from a simplified radiative transfer analysis of the upper tropospheric infrared water vapor channel at wavelength measured by HIRS (6.3 micrometer). The second one results from a neural network analysis of the TOVS (HIRS and MSU) data developed at, the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (hereafter the 3I (Improved Initialization Inversion) method). Although the two methods give very similar retrievals in temperate regions (30-60 N and S), an absolute bias up to 16% appears in the convective zone of the tropics. The two datasets have also been compared with UTH retrievals from infrared radiance measurements in the 6.3 micrometer channel from the geostationary satellite METEOSAT (hereafter MET method). The METEOSAT retrievals are systematically drier than the TOVS-based results by an absolute bias between 5 and 25%. Despite the biases, the spatial and temporal correlations are very good. The purpose of this study is to explain the deviations observed between the three datasets. The sensitivity of UTH to air temperature and humidity profiles is analysed as are the clouds effects. Overall, the comparison of the three retrievals gives an assessment of the current uncertainties in water vapor amounts in the upper troposphere as determined from NOAA and METEOSAT satellites.

Assessing the Value of Biosimilars: A Review of the Role of Budget Impact Analysis.

PubMed

Simoens, Steven; Jacobs, Ira; Popovian, Robert; Isakov, Leah; Shane, Lesley G

2017-10-01

Biosimilar drugs are highly similar to an originator (reference) biologic, with no clinically meaningful differences in terms of safety or efficacy. As biosimilars offer the potential for lower acquisition costs versus the originator biologic, evaluating the economic implications of the introduction of biosimilars is of interest. Budget impact analysis (BIA) is a commonly used methodology. This review of published BIAs of biosimilar fusion proteins and/or monoclonal antibodies identified 12 unique publications (three full papers and nine congress posters). When evaluated alongside professional guidance on conducting BIA, the majority of BIAs identified were generally in line with international recommendations. However, a lack of peer-reviewed journal articles and considerable shortcomings in the publications were identified. Deficiencies included a limited range of cost parameters, a reliance on assumptions for parameters such as uptake and drug pricing, a lack of expert validation, and a limited range of sensitivity analyses that were based on arbitrary ranges. The rationale for the methods employed, limitations of the BIA approach, and instructions for local adaptation often were inadequately discussed. To understand fully the potential economic impact and value of biosimilars, the impact of biosimilar supply, manufacturer-provided supporting services, and price competition should be included in BIAs. Alternative approaches, such as cost minimization, which requires evidence demonstrating similarity to the originator biologic, and those that integrate a range of economic assessment methods, are needed to assess the value of biosimilars.

Screening for bipolar spectrum disorders: A comprehensive meta-analysis of accuracy studies.

PubMed

Carvalho, André F; Takwoingi, Yemisi; Sales, Paulo Marcelo G; Soczynska, Joanna K; Köhler, Cristiano A; Freitas, Thiago H; Quevedo, João; Hyphantis, Thomas N; McIntyre, Roger S; Vieta, Eduard

2015-02-01

Bipolar spectrum disorders are frequently under-recognized and/or misdiagnosed in various settings. Several influential publications recommend the routine screening of bipolar disorder. A systematic review and meta-analysis of accuracy studies for the bipolar spectrum diagnostic scale (BSDS), the hypomania checklist (HCL-32) and the mood disorder questionnaire (MDQ) were performed. The Pubmed, EMBASE, Cochrane, PsycINFO and SCOPUS databases were searched. Studies were included if the accuracy properties of the screening measures were determined against a DSM or ICD-10 structured diagnostic interview. The QUADAS-2 tool was used to rate bias. Fifty three original studies met inclusion criteria (N=21,542). At recommended cutoffs, summary sensitivities were 81%, 66% and 69%, while specificities were 67%, 79% and 86% for the HCL-32, MDQ, and BSDS in psychiatric services, respectively. The HCL-32 was more accurate than the MDQ for the detection of type II bipolar disorder in mental health care centers (P=0.018). At a cutoff of 7, the MDQ had a summary sensitivity of 43% and a summary specificity of 95% for detection of bipolar disorder in primary care or general population settings. Most studies were performed in mental health care settings. Several included studies had a high risk of bias. Although accuracy properties of the three screening instruments did not consistently differ in mental health care services, the HCL-32 was more accurate than the MDQ for the detection of type II BD. More studies in other settings (for example, in primary care) are necessary. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF assay for musculoskeletal tuberculosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wen, Hai; Li, Pengzhi; Ma, Hong; Lv, Guohua

2017-01-01

Xpert MTB/RIF assay, a rapid and automated real-time nucleic acid amplification test, has been reported for the diagnosis of musculoskeletal tuberculosis (TB) in current years. This meta-analysis aims to determine the diagnostic accuracy of Xpert for the detection of musculoskeletal TB and rifampicin (RIF) resistance. We searched PubMed, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Wanfang for original articles published up to 1st June 2017 to identify studies in which the Xpert assay was applied to diagnose musculoskeletal TB. Pooled estimates were calculated using a random-effects model or a fixed-effects model according to heterogeneity. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to summarize overall diagnostic performance. Deeks' test was performed to evaluate potential publication bias. Twelve studies were identified with a pooled sensitivity and specificity of respectively 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.83) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.86) of Xpert for the diagnosis of musculoskeletal TB. Xpert was highly sensitive (0.89, 95% CI 0.79-0.95) and highly specific (0.96, 95% CI 0.92-0.98) in detecting RIF resistance. AUC (over 0.9) suggested a relatively high level of overall diagnostic accuracy of Xpert for detecting musculoskeletal TB and RIF resistance. Prevalence and reference standard were indicated to be sources of heterogeneity between studies. No publication bias was found. This study provides available evidence of the rapid and effective role of Xpert in diagnosing musculoskeletal TB and detecting RIF resistance.

The correlation between obstructive sleep apnea and diabetic neuropathy: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gu, Xiandong; Luo, Xuming; Wang, Xiongbiao; Tang, Jihong; Yang, Wei; Cai, Zhuying

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and diabetic neuropathy. After working out searching strategy, literatures were screened from the electronic databases: PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library. R 3.12 was utilized to perform meta-analysis, and odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to present effect size. Heterogeneity was assessed by χ 2 -based Q test and I 2 statistics. Publication bias was estimated by Egger's test and sensitivity was evaluated by leave one out methods. According to the criteria, a total of 11 studies with 1842 patients were enrolled in this study. With a significant heterogeneity (Q=31.83, I 2 =68.60%), the random effects model was utilized to assess the effect size of pooled data. A remarkable correlation was identified OSA and diabetic neuropathy (OR=1.84, 95% CI: 1.18-2.87) without publication bias (t=1.68, P=0.13). Meanwhile, the result of leave one out performed a well sensitivity. Moreover, the subgroup analyses presented that OSA was significantly correlated with type 1 diabetic neuropathy (OR=1.97, 95% CI: 1.19-3.25), but no remarkable correlation was identified between OSA and type 1 (OR=1.84, 95% CI: 0.86-3.93) or 1+2 (OR=1.30, 95% CI: 0.43-3.92) diabetic neuropathy. OSA was significantly correlated with neuropathy in type 1 diabetes, but not in type 2 and type 1+2 diabetes. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Detection limits of quantitative and digital PCR assays and their influence in presence-absence surveys of environmental DNA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, Margaret; Dorazio, Robert M.; Butterfield, John S.; Meigs-Friend, Gaia; Nico, Leo; Ferrante, Jason A.

2017-01-01

A set of universal guidelines is needed to determine the limit of detection (LOD) in PCR-based analyses of low concentration DNA. In particular, environmental DNA (eDNA) studies require sensitive and reliable methods to detect rare and cryptic species through shed genetic material in environmental samples. Current strategies for assessing detection limits of eDNA are either too stringent or subjective, possibly resulting in biased estimates of species’ presence. Here, a conservative LOD analysis grounded in analytical chemistry is proposed to correct for overestimated DNA concentrations predominantly caused by the concentration plateau, a nonlinear relationship between expected and measured DNA concentrations. We have used statistical criteria to establish formal mathematical models for both quantitative and droplet digital PCR. To assess the method, a new Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) TaqMan assay was developed and tested on both PCR platforms using eDNA in water samples. The LOD adjustment reduced Grass Carp occupancy and detection estimates while increasing uncertainty – indicating that caution needs to be applied to eDNA data without LOD correction. Compared to quantitative PCR, digital PCR had higher occurrence estimates due to increased sensitivity and dilution of inhibitors at low concentrations. Without accurate LOD correction, species occurrence and detection probabilities based on eDNA estimates are prone to a source of bias that cannot be reduced by an increase in sample size or PCR replicates. Other applications also could benefit from a standardized LOD such as GMO food analysis, and forensic and clinical diagnostics.

Lateralized Temporal Order Judgement in Dyslexia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liddle, Elizabeth B.; Jackson, Georgina M.; Rorden, Chris; Jackson, Stephen R.

2009-01-01

Temporal and spatial attentional deficits in dyslexia were investigated using a lateralized visual temporal order judgment (TOJ) paradigm that allowed both sensitivity to temporal order and spatial attentional bias to be measured. Findings indicate that adult participants with a positive screen for dyslexia were significantly less sensitive to the…

Evaporation from weighing precipitation gauges: impacts on automated gauge measurements and quality assurance methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeper, R. D.; Kochendorfer, J.

2014-12-01

The effects of evaporation on precipitation measurements have been understood to bias total precipitation lower. For automated weighing-bucket gauges, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests the use of evaporative suppressants with frequent observations. However, the use of evaporation suppressants is not always feasible due to environmental hazards and the added cost of maintenance, transport, and disposal of the gauge additive. In addition, research has suggested that evaporation prior to precipitation may affect precipitation measurements from auto-recording gauges operating at sub-hourly frequencies. For further evaluation, a field campaign was conducted to monitor evaporation and its impacts on the quality of precipitation measurements from gauges used at US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations. Collocated Geonor gauges with (nonEvap) and without (evap) an evaporative suppressant were compared to evaluate evaporative losses and evaporation biases on precipitation measurements. From June to August, evaporative losses from the evap gauge exceeded accumulated precipitation, with an average loss of 0.12 mm h-1. However, the impact of evaporation on precipitation measurements was sensitive to calculation methods. In general, methods that utilized a longer time series to smooth out sensor noise were more sensitive to gauge (-4.6% bias with respect to control) evaporation than methods computing depth change without smoothing (< +1% bias). These results indicate that while climate and gauge design affect gauge evaporation rates computational methods can influence the magnitude of evaporation bias on precipitation measurements. It is hoped this study will advance QA techniques that mitigate the impact of evaporation biases on precipitation measurements from other automated networks.

Attentional bias towards and away from fearful faces is modulated by developmental amygdala damage.

PubMed

Pishnamazi, Morteza; Tafakhori, Abbas; Loloee, Sogol; Modabbernia, Amirhossein; Aghamollaii, Vajiheh; Bahrami, Bahador; Winston, Joel S

2016-08-01

The amygdala is believed to play a major role in orienting attention towards threat-related stimuli. However, behavioral studies on amygdala-damaged patients have given inconsistent results-variously reporting decreased, persisted, and increased attention towards threat. Here we aimed to characterize the impact of developmental amygdala damage on emotion perception and the nature and time-course of spatial attentional bias towards fearful faces. We investigated SF, a 14-year-old with selective bilateral amygdala damage due to Urbach-Wiethe disease (UWD), and ten healthy controls. Participants completed a fear sensitivity questionnaire, facial expression classification task, and dot-probe task with fearful or neutral faces for spatial cueing. Three cue durations were used to assess the time-course of attentional bias. SF expressed significantly lower fear sensitivity, and showed a selective impairment in classifying fearful facial expressions. Despite this impairment in fear recognition, very brief (100 msec) fearful cues could orient SF's spatial attention. In healthy controls, the attentional bias emerged later and persisted longer. SF's attentional bias was due solely to facilitated engagement to fear, while controls showed the typical phenomenon of difficulty in disengaging from fear. Our study is the first to demonstrate the separable effects of amygdala damage on engagement and disengagement of spatial attention. The findings indicate that multiple mechanisms contribute in biasing attention towards fear, which vary in their timing and dependence on amygdala integrity. It seems that the amygdala is not essential for rapid attention to emotion, but probably has a role in assessment of biological relevance. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of bias associated with capture maps derived from nonlinear groundwater flow models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadler, Cara; Allander, Kip K.; Pohll, Greg; Morway, Eric D.; Naranjo, Ramon C.; Huntington, Justin

2018-01-01

The impact of groundwater withdrawal on surface water is a concern of water users and water managers, particularly in the arid western United States. Capture maps are useful tools to spatially assess the impact of groundwater pumping on water sources (e.g., streamflow depletion) and are being used more frequently for conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater. Capture maps have been derived using linear groundwater flow models and rely on the principle of superposition to demonstrate the effects of pumping in various locations on resources of interest. However, nonlinear models are often necessary to simulate head-dependent boundary conditions and unconfined aquifers. Capture maps developed using nonlinear models with the principle of superposition may over- or underestimate capture magnitude and spatial extent. This paper presents new methods for generating capture difference maps, which assess spatial effects of model nonlinearity on capture fraction sensitivity to pumping rate, and for calculating the bias associated with capture maps. The sensitivity of capture map bias to selected parameters related to model design and conceptualization for the arid western United States is explored. This study finds that the simulation of stream continuity, pumping rates, stream incision, well proximity to capture sources, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and groundwater evapotranspiration extinction depth substantially affect capture map bias. Capture difference maps demonstrate that regions with large capture fraction differences are indicative of greater potential capture map bias. Understanding both spatial and temporal bias in capture maps derived from nonlinear groundwater flow models improves their utility and defensibility as conjunctive-use management tools.

Dietary fiber intake reduces risk for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Sun, Lingli; Zhang, Zhizhong; Xu, Jian; Xu, Gelin; Liu, Xinfeng

2017-09-02

Observational studies suggest an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. However, the results are inconsistent. To conduct a meta-analysis of observational studies to assess this association. All eligible studies were identified by electronic searches in PubMed and Embase through February 2015. Dose-response, subgroup, sensitivity, and publication bias analyses were performed. A total of 15 studies involving 16,885 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled odds ratio for the highest compared with the lowest dietary fiber intake was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.43-0.64). Stratified analyses for tumor subtype, study design, geographic location, fiber type, publication year, total sample size, and quality score yielded consistent results. Dose-response analysis indicated that a 10-g/d increment in dietary fiber intake was associated with a 31% reduction in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer risk. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies with control for conventional risk factors produced similar results, and omission of any single study had little effect on the overall risk estimate. Our findings indicate that dietary fiber intake is inversely associated with risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. Further large prospective studies are warranted.

Air quality and acute deaths in California, 2000-2012.

PubMed

Young, S Stanley; Smith, Richard L; Lopiano, Keneth K

2017-08-01

Many studies have shown an association between air quality and acute deaths, and such associations are widely interpreted as causal. Several factors call causation and even association into question, for example multiple testing and multiple modeling, publication bias and confirmation bias. Many published studies are difficult or impossible to reproduce because of lack of access to confidential data sources. Here we make publically available a dataset containing daily air quality levels, PM 2.5 and ozone, daily temperature levels, minimum and maximum and daily maximum relative humidity levels for the eight most populous California air basins, thirteen years, >2M deaths, over 37,000 exposure days. The data are analyzed using standard time series analysis, and a sensitivity analysis is computed varying model parameters, locations and years. Our analysis finds little evidence for association between air quality and acute deaths. These results are consistent with those for the widely cited NMMAPS dataset when the latter are restricted to California. The daily death variability was mostly explained by time of year or weather variables; Neither PM 2.5 nor ozone added appreciably to the prediction of daily deaths. These results call into question the widespread belief that association between air quality and acute deaths is causal/near-universal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, G. H.; Yang, J.; Chen, Y. N.; Zammit, C.

2015-06-01

Water resources are essential to the ecosystem and social economy in the desert and oasis of the arid Tarim River basin, northwestern China, and expected to be vulnerable to climate change. It has been demonstrated that regional climate models (RCMs) provide more reliable results for a regional impact study of climate change (e.g., on water resources) than general circulation models (GCMs). However, due to their considerable bias it is still necessary to apply bias correction before they are used for water resources research. In this paper, after a sensitivity analysis on input meteorological variables based on the Sobol' method, we compared five precipitation correction methods and three temperature correction methods in downscaling RCM simulations applied over the Kaidu River basin, one of the headwaters of the Tarim River basin. Precipitation correction methods applied include linear scaling (LS), local intensity scaling (LOCI), power transformation (PT), distribution mapping (DM) and quantile mapping (QM), while temperature correction methods are LS, variance scaling (VARI) and DM. The corrected precipitation and temperature were compared to the observed meteorological data, prior to being used as meteorological inputs of a distributed hydrologic model to study their impacts on streamflow. The results show (1) streamflows are sensitive to precipitation, temperature and solar radiation but not to relative humidity and wind speed; (2) raw RCM simulations are heavily biased from observed meteorological data, and its use for streamflow simulations results in large biases from observed streamflow, and all bias correction methods effectively improved these simulations; (3) for precipitation, PT and QM methods performed equally best in correcting the frequency-based indices (e.g., standard deviation, percentile values) while the LOCI method performed best in terms of the time-series-based indices (e.g., Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, R2); (4) for temperature, all correction methods performed equally well in correcting raw temperature; and (5) for simulated streamflow, precipitation correction methods have more significant influence than temperature correction methods and the performances of streamflow simulations are consistent with those of corrected precipitation; i.e., the PT and QM methods performed equally best in correcting flow duration curve and peak flow while the LOCI method performed best in terms of the time-series-based indices. The case study is for an arid area in China based on a specific RCM and hydrologic model, but the methodology and some results can be applied to other areas and models.

Using Observational Data to Estimate the Effect of Hand Washing and Clean Delivery Kit Use by Birth Attendants on Maternal Deaths after Home Deliveries in Rural Bangladesh, India and Nepal

PubMed Central

Seward, Nadine; Prost, Audrey; Copas, Andrew; Corbin, Marine; Li, Leah; Colbourn, Tim; Osrin, David; Neuman, Melissa; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Cortina-Borja, Mario

2015-01-01

Background Globally, puerperal sepsis accounts for an estimated 8–12% of maternal deaths, but evidence is lacking on the extent to which clean delivery practices could improve maternal survival. We used data from the control arms of four cluster-randomised controlled trials conducted in rural India, Bangladesh and Nepal, to examine associations between clean delivery kit use and hand washing by the birth attendant with maternal mortality among home deliveries. Methods We tested associations between clean delivery practices and maternal deaths, using a pooled dataset for 40,602 home births across sites in the three countries. Cross-sectional data were analysed by fitting logistic regression models with and without multiple imputation, and confounders were selected a priori using causal directed acyclic graphs. The robustness of estimates was investigated through sensitivity analyses. Results Hand washing was associated with a 49% reduction in the odds of maternal mortality after adjusting for confounding factors (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.51, 95% CI 0.28–0.93). The sensitivity analysis testing the missing at random assumption for the multiple imputation, as well as the sensitivity analysis accounting for possible misclassification bias in the use of clean delivery practices, indicated that the association between hand washing and maternal death had been over estimated. Clean delivery kit use was not associated with a maternal death (AOR 1.26, 95% CI 0.62–2.56). Conclusions Our evidence suggests that hand washing in delivery is critical for maternal survival among home deliveries in rural South Asia, although the exact magnitude of this effect is uncertain due to inherent biases associated with observational data from low resource settings. Our findings indicating kit use does not improve maternal survival, suggests that the soap is not being used in all instances that kit use is being reported. PMID:26295838

Enhanced external and culturally sensitive attributions after extended intercultural contact.

PubMed

Vollhardt, Johanna Ray

2010-06-01

This study examined the effect of close and extended intercultural contact on attributions for behaviour of out-group members. Specifically, it was hypothesized that extended intercultural contact would enhance the ability to make external and culturally sensitive attributions for ambiguous behaviour of out-group members, while decreasing the common tendency to overestimate internal factors. A content analysis of open-ended attributions supported these hypotheses, revealing that majority group members in Germany who had hosted an exchange student from another continent used significantly less internal and more external as well as culturally sensitive attributions to explain the behaviour described in critical intercultural incidents, compared to future hosts. The effect remained significant when controlling for perspective taking and prior intercultural experience. Moreover, the hypothesis was supported for scenarios describing different cultural groups (regardless of the exchange students' country of origin), suggesting a generalized effect. Problems of selection bias are discussed, and the importance of studying a range of positive outcomes of intercultural contact is emphasized.

Eye-Tracking Provides a Sensitive Measure of Exploration Deficits After Acute Right MCA Stroke

PubMed Central

Delazer, Margarete; Sojer, Martin; Ellmerer, Philipp; Boehme, Christian; Benke, Thomas

2018-01-01

The eye-tracking study aimed at assessing spatial biases in visual exploration in patients after acute right MCA (middle cerebral artery) stroke. Patients affected by unilateral neglect show less functional recovery and experience severe difficulties in everyday life. Thus, accurate diagnosis is essential, and specific treatment is required. Early assessment is of high importance as rehabilitative interventions are more effective when applied soon after stroke. Previous research has shown that deficits may be overlooked when classical paper-and-pencil tasks are used for diagnosis. Conversely, eye-tracking allows direct monitoring of visual exploration patterns. We hypothesized that the analysis of eye-tracking provides more sensitive measures for spatial exploration deficits after right middle cerebral artery stroke. Twenty-two patients with right MCA stroke (median 5 days after stroke) and 28 healthy controls were included. Lesions were confirmed by MRI/CCT. Groups performed comparably in the Mini–Mental State Examination (patients and controls median 29) and in a screening of executive functions. Eleven patients scored at ceiling in neglect screening tasks, 11 showed minimal to severe signs of unilateral visual neglect. An overlap plot based on MRI and CCT imaging showed lesions in the temporo–parieto–frontal cortex, basal ganglia, and adjacent white matter tracts. Visual exploration was evaluated in two eye-tracking tasks, one assessing free visual exploration of photographs, the other visual search using symbols and letters. An index of fixation asymmetries proved to be a sensitive measure of spatial exploration deficits. Both patient groups showed a marked exploration bias to the right when looking at complex photographs. A single case analysis confirmed that also most of those patients who showed no neglect in screening tasks performed outside the range of controls in free exploration. The analysis of patients’ scoring at ceiling in neglect screening tasks is of special interest, as possible deficits may be overlooked and thus remain untreated. Our findings are in line with other studies suggesting considerable limitations of laboratory screening procedures to fully appreciate the occurrence of neglect symptoms. Future investigations are needed to explore the predictive value of the eye-tracking index and its validity in everyday situations.

Usefulness of DWI in preoperative assessment of deep myometrial invasion in patients with endometrial carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to perform a systematic review and a meta-analysis in order to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) in the preoperative assessment of deep myometrial invasion in patients with endometrial carcinoma. Methods Studies evaluating DWI for the detection of deep myometrial invasion in patients with endometrial carcinoma were systematically searched for in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library from January 1995 to January 2014. Methodologic quality was assessed by using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analytic methods were used to obtain pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The study also evaluated the clinical utility of DWI in preoperative assessment of deep myometrial invasion. Results Seven studies enrolling a total of 320 individuals met the study inclusion criteria. The summary area under the ROC curve was 0.91. There was no evidence of publication bias (P = 0.90, bias coefficient analysis). Sensitivity and specificity of DWI for detection of deep myometrial invasion across all studies were 0.90 and 0.89, respectively. Positive and negative likelihood ratios with DWI were 8 and 0.11 respectively. In patients with high pre-test probabilities, DWI enabled confirmation of deep myometrial invasion; in patients with low pre-test probabilities, DWI enabled exclusion of deep myometrial invasion. The worst case scenario (pre-test probability, 50%) post-test probabilities were 89% and 10% for positive and negative DWI results, respectively. Conclusion DWI has high sensitivity and specificity for detecting deep myometrial invasion and more importantly can reliably rule out deep myometrial invasion. Therefore, it would be worthwhile to add a DWI sequence to the standard MRI protocols in preoperative evaluation of endometrial cancer in order to detect deep myometrial invasion, which along with other poor prognostic factors like age, tumor grade, and LVSI would be useful in stratifying high risk groups thereby helping in the tailoring of surgical approach in patient with low risk of endometrial carcinoma. PMID:25608571

Quotation accuracy in medical journal articles-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jergas, Hannah; Baethge, Christopher

2015-01-01

Background. Quotations and references are an indispensable element of scientific communication. They should support what authors claim or provide important background information for readers. Studies indicate, however, that quotations not serving their purpose-quotation errors-may be prevalent. Methods. We carried out a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of quotation errors, taking account of differences between studies in error ascertainment. Results. Out of 559 studies screened we included 28 in the main analysis, and estimated major, minor and total quotation error rates of 11,9%, 95% CI [8.4, 16.6] 11.5% [8.3, 15.7], and 25.4% [19.5, 32.4]. While heterogeneity was substantial, even the lowest estimate of total quotation errors was considerable (6.7%). Indirect references accounted for less than one sixth of all quotation problems. The findings remained robust in a number of sensitivity and subgroup analyses (including risk of bias analysis) and in meta-regression. There was no indication of publication bias. Conclusions. Readers of medical journal articles should be aware of the fact that quotation errors are common. Measures against quotation errors include spot checks by editors and reviewers, correct placement of citations in the text, and declarations by authors that they have checked cited material. Future research should elucidate if and to what degree quotation errors are detrimental to scientific progress.

Quotation accuracy in medical journal articles—a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Jergas, Hannah

2015-01-01

Background. Quotations and references are an indispensable element of scientific communication. They should support what authors claim or provide important background information for readers. Studies indicate, however, that quotations not serving their purpose—quotation errors—may be prevalent. Methods. We carried out a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of quotation errors, taking account of differences between studies in error ascertainment. Results. Out of 559 studies screened we included 28 in the main analysis, and estimated major, minor and total quotation error rates of 11,9%, 95% CI [8.4, 16.6] 11.5% [8.3, 15.7], and 25.4% [19.5, 32.4]. While heterogeneity was substantial, even the lowest estimate of total quotation errors was considerable (6.7%). Indirect references accounted for less than one sixth of all quotation problems. The findings remained robust in a number of sensitivity and subgroup analyses (including risk of bias analysis) and in meta-regression. There was no indication of publication bias. Conclusions. Readers of medical journal articles should be aware of the fact that quotation errors are common. Measures against quotation errors include spot checks by editors and reviewers, correct placement of citations in the text, and declarations by authors that they have checked cited material. Future research should elucidate if and to what degree quotation errors are detrimental to scientific progress. PMID:26528420

Comparison of maternal and fetal complications in elective and emergency cesarean section: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Xiao-Jing; Sun, Shan-Shan

2017-09-01

Though the same types of complication were found in both elective cesarean section (ElCS) and emergence cesarean section (EmCS), the aim of this study is to compare the rates of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality between ElCS and EmCS. Full-text articles involved in the maternal and fetal complications and outcomes of ElCS and EmCS were searched in multiple database. Review Manager 5.0 was adopted for meta-analysis, sensitivity analysis, and bias analysis. Funnel plots and Egger's tests were also applied with STATA 10.0 software to assess possible publication bias. Totally nine articles were included in this study. Among these articles, seven, three, and four studies were involved in the maternal complication, fetal complication, and fetal outcomes, respectively. The combined analyses showed that both rates of maternal complication and fetal complication in EmCS were higher than those in ElCS. The rates of infection, fever, UTI (urinary tract infection), wound dehiscence, DIC (disseminated intravascular coagulation), and reoperation of postpartum women with EmCS were much higher than those with ElCS. Larger infant mortality rate of EmCS was also observed. Emergency cesarean sections showed significantly more maternal and fetal complications and mortality than elective cesarean sections in this study. Certain plans should be worked out by obstetric practitioners to avoid the post-operative complications.

Elevated CD147 expression is associated with shorter overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaojun; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Liu, Changting; Fang, Xiangqun

2017-06-06

A number of studies have reported on the prognostic role of CD147 expression in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); however, the results remain controversial. This study aims to investigate the impact of CD147 on the prognosis of NSCLC by means of a meta-analysis. A literature search was performed for relevant studies published before October 29, 2016. The hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated as effective measures. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias examination were also conducted. Ten eligible studies with a total of 1605 patients were included in this meta-analysis. CD147 overexpression was correlated with poor overall survival (OS) (HR=1.59, 95% CI=1.32-1.91, p<0.001). Elevated CD147 expression was associated with the presence of lymph node metastasis (OR=2.31, 95% CI=1.74-3.07, p<0.001) and advanced TNM stage (OR=3.03, 95% CI=1.24-7.39, p=0.015). However, no significant association between CD147 and sex, age, differentiation, or histology was found. No evidence of significant publication bias was identified. This meta-analysis revealed that overexpression of CD147 was associated with shorter OS, the presence of lymph node metastasis and advanced TNM stage in NSCLC. Therefore, CD147 could serve as a potential prognostic marker for NSCLC.

Elevated CD147 expression is associated with shorter overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiaojun; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Liu, Changting; Fang, Xiangqun

2017-01-01

A number of studies have reported on the prognostic role of CD147 expression in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); however, the results remain controversial. This study aims to investigate the impact of CD147 on the prognosis of NSCLC by means of a meta-analysis. A literature search was performed for relevant studies published before October 29, 2016. The hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated as effective measures. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias examination were also conducted. Ten eligible studies with a total of 1605 patients were included in this meta-analysis. CD147 overexpression was correlated with poor overall survival (OS) (HR=1.59, 95% CI=1.32–1.91, p<0.001). Elevated CD147 expression was associated with the presence of lymph node metastasis (OR=2.31, 95% CI=1.74–3.07, p<0.001) and advanced TNM stage (OR=3.03, 95% CI=1.24–7.39, p=0.015). However, no significant association between CD147 and sex, age, differentiation, or histology was found. No evidence of significant publication bias was identified. This meta-analysis revealed that overexpression of CD147 was associated with shorter OS, the presence of lymph node metastasis and advanced TNM stage in NSCLC. Therefore, CD147 could serve as a potential prognostic marker for NSCLC. PMID:28445149

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models.

PubMed

Mulder, Han A; Rönnegård, Lars; Fikse, W Freddy; Veerkamp, Roel F; Strandberg, Erling

2013-07-04

Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike's information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike's information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike's information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

Facial recognition of happiness among older adults with active and remitted major depression.

PubMed

Shiroma, Paulo R; Thuras, Paul; Johns, Brian; Lim, Kelvin O

2016-09-30

Biased emotion processing in depression might be a trait characteristic independent of mood improvement and a vulnerable factor to develop further depressive episodes. This phenomenon of among older adults with depression has not been adequately examined. In a 2-year cross-sectional study, 59 older patients with either active or remitted major depression, or never-depressed, completed a facial emotion recognition task (FERT) to probe perceptual bias of happiness. The results showed that depressed patients, compared with never depressed subjects, had a significant lower sensitivity to identify happiness particularly at moderate intensity of facial stimuli. Patients in remission from a previous major depressive episode but with none or minimal symptoms had similar sensitivity rate to identify happy facial expressions as compared to patients with an active depressive episode. Further studies would be necessary to confirm whether recognition of happy expression reflects a persistent perceptual bias of major depression in older adults. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Priming global and local processing of composite faces: revisiting the processing-bias effect on face perception.

PubMed

Gao, Zaifeng; Flevaris, Anastasia V; Robertson, Lynn C; Bentin, Shlomo

2011-07-01

We used the composite-face illusion and Navon stimuli to determine the consequences of priming local or global processing on subsequent face recognition. The composite-face illusion reflects the difficulty of ignoring the task-irrelevant half-face while attending the task-relevant half if the half-faces in the composite are aligned. On each trial, participants first matched two Navon stimuli, attending to either the global or the local level, and then matched the upper halves of two composite faces presented sequentially. Global processing of Navon stimuli increased the sensitivity to incongruence between the upper and the lower halves of the composite face, relative to a baseline in which the composite faces were not primed. Local processing of Navon stimuli did not influence the sensitivity to incongruence. Although incongruence induced a bias toward different responses, this bias was not modulated by priming. We conclude that global processing of Navon stimuli augments holistic processing of the face.

Computational investigation of single-wall carbon nanotube functionalized with palladium nanoclusters as hydrogen sulfide gas sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagherzadeh-Nobari, S.; Hosseini-Istadeh, K.; Kalantarinejad, R.; Elahi, S. M.; Shokri, A. A.

2018-03-01

Our aim is to study theoretically, the sensitivity of a hydrogen sulfide gas sensor, with regard to electrical conductance behavior. Our senor consists of a semiconductor single-wall carbon nanotube (SWCNT), functionalized with palladium nanoclusters, sandwiched between two gold electrodes. Initially, we have computed the optimized structure of the sensor, via molecular dynamic simulations. Then by using non-equilibrium Green's function method, combined with density functional theory, the electronic and transport properties of the sensor were calculated, and compared before and after adsorption of H2S gas, at different bias voltages. The highest sensitivity is achieved at 40 mV bias voltage. In this bias voltage, H2S gas adsorption causes a significant decrease of current, because as a result of charge transfer from the CNT and palladium nanoclusters, to H2S gas, majority carriers (electrons) decrease. The results show that CNT decorated with palladium nanoclusters can be a promising candidate in gas-sensorics.

Factors influencing perceived angular velocity.

PubMed

Kaiser, M K; Calderone, J B

1991-11-01

The assumption that humans are able to perceive and process angular kinematics is critical to many structure-from-motion and optical flow models. The current studies investigate this sensitivity, and examine several factors likely to influence angular velocity perception. In particular, three factors are considered: (1) the extent to which perceived angular velocity is determined by edge transitions of surface elements, (2) the extent to which angular velocity estimates are influenced by instantaneous linear velocities of surface elements, and (3) whether element-velocity effects are related to three-dimensional (3-D) tangential velocities or to two-dimensional (2-D) image velocities. Edge-transition rate biased angular velocity estimates only when edges were highly salient. Element velocities influenced perceived angular velocity; this bias was related to 2-D image velocity rather than 3-D tangential velocity. Despite these biases, however, judgments were most strongly determined by the true angular velocity. Sensitivity to this higher order motion parameter was surprisingly good, for rotations both in depth (y-axis) and parallel to the line of sight (z-axis).

Demographic origins of skewed operational and adult sex ratios: perturbation analyses of two-sex models.

PubMed

Veran, Sophie; Beissinger, Steven R

2009-02-01

Skewed sex ratios - operational (OSR) and Adult (ASR) - arise from sexual differences in reproductive behaviours and adult survival rates due to the cost of reproduction. However, skewed sex-ratio at birth, sex-biased dispersal and immigration, and sexual differences in juvenile mortality may also contribute. We present a framework to decompose the roles of demographic traits on sex ratios using perturbation analyses of two-sex matrix population models. Metrics of sensitivity are derived from analyses of sensitivity, elasticity, life-table response experiments and life stage simulation analyses, and applied to the stable stage distribution instead of lambda. We use these approaches to examine causes of male-biased sex ratios in two populations of green-rumped parrotlets (Forpus passerinus) in Venezuela. Female local juvenile survival contributed the most to the unbalanced OSR and ASR due to a female-biased dispersal rate, suggesting sexual differences in philopatry can influence sex ratios more strongly than the cost of reproduction.

IMPROVING PARTICULATE MATTER SOURCE APPORTIONMENT FOR HEALTH STUDIES: A TRAINED RECEPTOR MODELING APPROACH WITH SENSITIVITY, UNCERTAINTY AND SPATIAL ANALYSES

EPA Science Inventory

An approach for conducting PM source apportionment will be developed, tested, and applied that directly addresses limitations in current SA methods, in particular variability, biases, and intensive resource requirements. Uncertainties in SA results and sensitivities to SA inpu...

Performance Anxiety among African-American College Students: Racial Bias as a Factor in Social Phobia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Aleta Bok

2006-01-01

This article examines the etiology of social phobia, and proposes that the sensitivity to self-scrutiny common to social phobics can be exacerbated by the effects of longstanding racial bias. The impact of racism on identity and the importance of context are explored as salient factors in the onset of a case of social phobia for an…

Topics in the optimization of millimeter-wave mixers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegel, P. H.; Kerr, A. R.; Hwang, W.

1984-01-01

A user oriented computer program for the analysis of single-ended Schottky diode mixers is described. The program is used to compute the performance of a 140 to 220 GHz mixer and excellent agreement with measurements at 150 and 180 GHz is obtained. A sensitivity analysis indicates the importance of various diode and mount characteristics on the mixer performance. A computer program for the analysis of varactor diode multipliers is described. The diode operates in either the reverse biased varactor mode or with substantial forward current flow where the conversion mechanism is predominantly resistive. A description and analysis of a new H-plane rectangular waveguide transformer is reported. The transformer is made quickly and easily in split-block waveguide using a standard slitting saw. It is particularly suited for use in the millimeter-wave band, replacing conventional electroformed stepped transformers. A theoretical analysis of the transformer is given and good agreement is obtained with measurements made at X-band.

A practical guide to propensity score analysis for applied clinical research.

PubMed

Lee, Jaehoon; Little, Todd D

2017-11-01

Observational studies are often the only viable options in many clinical settings, especially when it is unethical or infeasible to randomly assign participants to different treatment régimes. In such case propensity score (PS) analysis can be applied to accounting for possible selection bias and thereby addressing questions of causal inference. Many PS methods exist, yet few guidelines are available to aid applied researchers in their conduct and evaluation of a PS analysis. In this article we give an overview of available techniques for PS estimation and application, balance diagnostic, treatment effect estimation, and sensitivity assessment, as well as recent advances. We also offer a tutorial that can be used to emulate the steps of PS analysis. Our goal is to provide information that will bring PS analysis within the reach of applied clinical researchers and practitioners. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrically biased GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures for enhanced detection of bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziziyan, Mohammad R.; Hassen, Walid M.; Dubowski, Jan J.

2016-03-01

We have examined the influence of electrical bias on immobilization of bacteria on the surface of GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures, functionalized with an alkanethiol based architecture. A mixture of biotinylated polyethylene glycol (PEG) thiol and hexadecanethiol was applied to attach neutravidin and antibodies targeting specific immobilization of Legionella pneumophila. An electrochemical setup was designed to bias biofunctionalized samples with the potential measured versus silver/silver chloride reference electrode in a three electrode configuration system. The immobilization efficiency has been examined with fluorescence microscopy after tagging captured bacteria with fluorescein labeled antibodies. We demonstrate more than 2 times enhanced capture of Legionella pneumophila, suggesting the potential of electrically biased biochips to deliver enhanced sensitivity in detecting these bacteria.

Dietary medium-chain triacylglycerols versus long-chain triacylglycerols for body composition in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Bueno, Nassib B; de Melo, Ingrid V; Florêncio, Telma T; Sawaya, Ana L

2015-01-01

To assess the effect of replacing dietary long-chain triacylglycerols (LCTs) with medium-chain triacylglycerols (MCTs) on body composition in adults. We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), to determine whether individuals assigned to replace at least 5 g of dietary LCTs with MCTs for a minimum of 4 weeks show positive modifications on body composition. We systematically searched, through July 2013, the CENTRAL, EMBASE, LILACS, and MEDLINE databases for RCTs that investigated the effects of MCT intake on body composition in adults. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Weighted mean differences (WMDs) were calculated for net changes in the outcomes. We assessed heterogeneity by the Cochran Q test and I(2) statistic and publication bias with the Egger's test. Prespecified sensitivity analyses were performed. In total, 11 trials were included, from which 5 presented low risk of bias. In the overall analysis, including all studies, individuals who replaced dietary LCT with MCT showed significantly reduced body weight (WMD, -0.69 kg; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.1 to -0.28; p = 0.001); body fat (-0.89 kg; 95% CI, -1.27 to -0.51; p < 0.001), and WC (-1.78 cm; 95% CI, -2.4 to -1.1; p < 0.001). The overall quality of the evidence was low to moderate. Trials with a crossover design were responsible for the heterogeneity. Despite statistically significant results, the recommendation to replace dietary LCTs with MCTs must be cautiously taken, because the available evidence is not of the highest quality.

Behavioral sensitivity of Japanese children with and without ADHD to changing reinforcer availability: an experimental study using signal detection methodology.

PubMed

Furukawa, Emi; Shimabukuro, Shizuka; Alsop, Brent; Tripp, Gail

2017-09-25

Most research on motivational processes in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been undertaken in Western Europe and North America. The extent to which these findings apply to other cultural groups is unclear. The current study evaluated the behavioral sensitivity of Japanese children with and without ADHD to changing reward availability. Forty-one school-aged children, 19 diagnosed with DSM-IV ADHD, completed a signal-detection task in which correct discriminations between two stimuli were associated with different reinforcement frequencies. The response alternative associated with the higher rate of reinforcement switched twice during the task without warning. Both groups of children developed an initial bias toward the more frequently reinforced response alternative. When the reward contingencies switched the response allocation (bias) of the control group children followed suit. The response bias scores of the children with ADHD did not, suggesting impaired tracking of reward availability over time. Japanese children with ADHD adjust their behavioral responses to changing reinforcer availability less than their typically developing peers. This is not explained by poor attention to task or a lack of sensitivity to reward. The current results are consistent with altered sensitivity to changing reward contingencies identified in non-Japanese samples of children with ADHD. Irrespective of their country of origin, children with ADHD will likely benefit from behavioral expectations and reinforcement contingencies being made explicit together with high rates of reinforcement for appropriate behaviors.

Depression in Gulf War veterans: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Blore, J D; Sim, M R; Forbes, A B; Creamer, M C; Kelsall, H L

2015-06-01

Although post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been a focus of attention in 1990/1991 Gulf War veterans, the excess risk of depression has not been clearly identified. We investigated this through a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing depression in Gulf War veterans to depression in a comparison group of non-deployed military personnel. Multiple electronic databases and grey literature were searched from 1990 to 2012. Studies were assessed for eligibility and risk of bias according to established criteria. Of 14 098 titles and abstracts assessed, 14 studies met the inclusion criteria. Gulf War veterans had over twice the odds of experiencing depression [odds ratio (OR) 2.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.88-2.76] and dysthymia or chronic dysphoria (OR 2.39, 95% CI 2.0-2.86) compared to non-deployed military personnel. This finding was robust in sensitivity analyses, and to differences in overall risk of bias and psychological measures used. Despite divergent methodologies between studies, depression and dysthymia were twice as common in Gulf War veterans and are important medical conditions for clinicians and policymakers to be aware of in managing Gulf War veterans' health.

Methods for detecting, quantifying, and adjusting for dissemination bias in meta-analysis are described.

PubMed

Mueller, Katharina Felicitas; Meerpohl, Joerg J; Briel, Matthias; Antes, Gerd; von Elm, Erik; Lang, Britta; Motschall, Edith; Schwarzer, Guido; Bassler, Dirk

2016-12-01

To systematically review methodological articles which focus on nonpublication of studies and to describe methods of detecting and/or quantifying and/or adjusting for dissemination in meta-analyses. To evaluate whether the methods have been applied to an empirical data set for which one can be reasonably confident that all studies conducted have been included. We systematically searched Medline, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science, for methodological articles that describe at least one method of detecting and/or quantifying and/or adjusting for dissemination bias in meta-analyses. The literature search retrieved 2,224 records, of which we finally included 150 full-text articles. A great variety of methods to detect, quantify, or adjust for dissemination bias were described. Methods included graphical methods mainly based on funnel plot approaches, statistical methods, such as regression tests, selection models, sensitivity analyses, and a great number of more recent statistical approaches. Only few methods have been validated in empirical evaluations using unpublished studies obtained from regulators (Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency). We present an overview of existing methods to detect, quantify, or adjust for dissemination bias. It remains difficult to advise which method should be used as they are all limited and their validity has rarely been assessed. Therefore, a thorough literature search remains crucial in systematic reviews, and further steps to increase the availability of all research results need to be taken. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unbiased methods for removing systematics from galaxy clustering measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsner, Franz; Leistedt, Boris; Peiris, Hiranya V.

2016-02-01

Measuring the angular clustering of galaxies as a function of redshift is a powerful method for extracting information from the three-dimensional galaxy distribution. The precision of such measurements will dramatically increase with ongoing and future wide-field galaxy surveys. However, these are also increasingly sensitive to observational and astrophysical contaminants. Here, we study the statistical properties of three methods proposed for controlling such systematics - template subtraction, basic mode projection, and extended mode projection - all of which make use of externally supplied template maps, designed to characterize and capture the spatial variations of potential systematic effects. Based on a detailed mathematical analysis, and in agreement with simulations, we find that the template subtraction method in its original formulation returns biased estimates of the galaxy angular clustering. We derive closed-form expressions that should be used to correct results for this shortcoming. Turning to the basic mode projection algorithm, we prove it to be free of any bias, whereas we conclude that results computed with extended mode projection are biased. Within a simplified setup, we derive analytical expressions for the bias and discuss the options for correcting it in more realistic configurations. Common to all three methods is an increased estimator variance induced by the cleaning process, albeit at different levels. These results enable unbiased high-precision clustering measurements in the presence of spatially varying systematics, an essential step towards realizing the full potential of current and planned galaxy surveys.

Bias in Estimation of Hippocampal Atrophy using Deformation-Based Morphometry Arises from Asymmetric Global Normalization: An Illustration in ADNI 3 Tesla MRI Data

PubMed Central

Yushkevich, Paul A.; Avants, Brian B.; Das, Sandhitsu R.; Pluta, John; Altinay, Murat; Craige, Caryne

2009-01-01

Measurement of brain change due to neurodegenerative disease and treatment is one of the fundamental tasks of neuroimaging. Deformation-based morphometry (DBM) has been long recognized as an effective and sensitive tool for estimating the change in the volume of brain regions over time. This paper demonstrates that a straightforward application of DBM to estimate the change in the volume of the hippocampus can result in substantial bias, i.e., an overestimation of the rate of change in hippocampal volume. In ADNI data, this bias is manifested as a non-zero intercept of the regression line fitted to the 6 and 12 month rates of hippocampal atrophy. The bias is further confirmed by applying DBM to repeat scans of subjects acquired on the same day. This bias appears to be the result of asymmetry in the interpolation of baseline and followup images during longitudinal image registration. Correcting this asymmetry leads to bias-free atrophy estimation. PMID:20005963

Attention biases in preoccupation with body image: An ERP study of the role of social comparison and automaticity when processing body size.

PubMed

Uusberg, Helen; Peet, Krista; Uusberg, Andero; Akkermann, Kirsti

2018-03-17

Appearance-related attention biases are thought to contribute to body image disturbances. We investigated how preoccupation with body image is associated with attention biases to body size, focusing on the role of social comparison processes and automaticity. Thirty-six women varying on self-reported preoccupation compared their actual body size to size-modified images of either themselves or a figure-matched peer. Amplification of earlier (N170, P2) and later (P3, LPP) ERP components recorded under low vs. high concurrent working memory load were analyzed. Women with high preoccupation exhibited an earlier bias to larger bodies of both self and peer. During later processing stages, they exhibited a stronger bias to enlarged as well as reduced self-images and a lack of sensitivity to size-modifications of the peer-image. Working memory load did not affect these biases systematically. Current findings suggest that preoccupation with body image involves an earlier attention bias to weight increase cues and later over-engagement with own figure. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Reliability of Diffusion Tensor Metrics in Thigh Skeletal Muscles.

PubMed

Keller, Sarah; Chhabra, Avneesh; Ahmed, Shaheen; Kim, Anne C; Chia, Jonathan M; Yamamura, Jin; Wang, Zhiyue J

2018-05-01

Quantitative diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) of skeletal muscles is challenging due to the bias in DTI metrics, such as fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD), related to insufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). This study compares the bias of DTI metrics in skeletal muscles via pixel-based and region-of-interest (ROI)-based analysis. DTI of the thigh muscles was conducted on a 3.0-T system in N = 11 volunteers using a fat-suppressed single-shot spin-echo echo planar imaging (SS SE-EPI) sequence with eight repetitions (number of signal averages (NSA) = 4 or 8 for each repeat). The SNR was calculated for different NSAs and estimated for the composite images combining all data (effective NSA = 48) as standard reference. The bias of MD and FA derived by pixel-based and ROI-based quantification were compared at different NSAs. An "intra-ROI diffusion direction dispersion angle (IRDDDA)" was calculated to assess the uniformity of diffusion within the ROI. Using our standard reference image with NSA = 48, the ROI-based and pixel-based measurements agreed for FA and MD. Larger disagreements were observed for the pixel-based quantification at NSA = 4. MD was less sensitive than FA to the noise level. The IRDDDA decreased with higher NSA. At NSA = 4, ROI-based FA showed a lower average bias (0.9% vs. 37.4%) and narrower 95% limits of agreement compared to the pixel-based method. The ROI-based estimation of FA is less prone to bias than the pixel-based estimations when SNR is low. The IRDDDA can be applied as a quantitative quality measure to assess reliability of ROI-based DTI metrics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utilization of Positive and Negative Controls to Examine Comorbid Associations in Observational Database Studies.

PubMed

Desai, Jigar R; Hyde, Craig L; Kabadi, Shaum; St Louis, Matthew; Bonato, Vinicius; Katrina Loomis, A; Galaznik, Aaron; Berger, Marc L

2017-03-01

Opportunities to leverage observational data for precision medicine research are hampered by underlying sources of bias and paucity of methods to handle resulting uncertainty. We outline an approach to account for bias in identifying comorbid associations between 2 rare genetic disorders and type 2 diabetes (T2D) by applying a positive and negative control disease paradigm. Association between 10 common and 2 rare genetic disorders [Hereditary Fructose Intolerance (HFI) and α-1 antitrypsin deficiency] and T2D was compared with the association between T2D and 7 negative control diseases with no established relationship with T2D in 4 observational databases. Negative controls were used to estimate how much bias and variance existed in datasets when no effect should be observed. Unadjusted association for common and rare genetic disorders and T2D was positive and variable in magnitude and distribution in all 4 databases. However, association between negative controls and T2D was 200% greater than expected indicating the magnitude and confidence intervals for comorbid associations are sensitive to systematic bias. A meta-analysis using this method demonstrated a significant association between HFI and T2D but not for α-1 antitrypsin deficiency. For observational studies, when covariate data are limited or ambiguous, positive and negative controls provide a method to account for the broadest level of systematic bias, heterogeneity, and uncertainty. This provides greater confidence in assessing associations between diseases and comorbidities. Using this approach we were able to demonstrate an association between HFI and T2D. Leveraging real-world databases is a promising approach to identify and corroborate potential targets for precision medicine therapies.

Analysis of MAIAC Dust Aerosol Retrievals from MODIS Over North Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyapustin, A.; Wang, Y.; Hsu, C.; Torres, O.; Leptoukh, G.; Kalashnikova, O.; Korkin, S.

2011-01-01

An initial comparison of aerosol optical thickness over North Africa for year 2007 was performed between the Deep Blue and Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithms complimented with MISR and OMI data. The new MAIAC algorithm has a better sensitivity to the small dust storms than the DB algorithm, but it also has biases in the brightest desert regions indicating the need for improvement. The quarterly averaged AOT values in the Bodele depression and western downwind transport region show a good agreement among MAIAC, MISR and OMI data, while the DB algorithm shows a somewhat different seasonality.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Marshall, William BJ J

In the course of criticality code validation, outlier cases are frequently encountered. Historically, the causes of these unexpected results could be diagnosed only through comparison with other similar cases or through the known presence of a unique component of the critical experiment. The sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis tools available in the SCALE 6.1 code system provide a much broader range of options to examine underlying causes of outlier cases. This paper presents some case studies performed as a part of the recent validation of the KENO codes in SCALE 6.1 using S/U tools to examine potential causes of biases.

Don't panic: interpretation bias is predictive of new onsets of panic disorder.

PubMed

Woud, Marcella L; Zhang, Xiao Chi; Becker, Eni S; McNally, Richard J; Margraf, Jürgen

2014-01-01

Psychological models of panic disorder postulate that interpretation of ambiguous material as threatening is an important maintaining factor for the disorder. However, demonstrations of whether such a bias predicts onset of panic disorder are missing. In the present study, we used data from the Dresden Prediction Study, in which a epidemiologic sample of young German women was tested at two time points approximately 17 months apart, allowing the study of biased interpretation as a potential risk factor. At time point one, participants completed an Interpretation Questionnaire including two types of ambiguous scenarios: panic-related and general threat-related. Analyses revealed that a panic-related interpretation bias predicted onset of panic disorder, even after controlling for two established risk factors: anxiety sensitivity and fear of bodily sensations. This is the first prospective study demonstrating the incremental validity of interpretation bias as a predictor of panic disorder onset. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attention biases to threat and behavioral inhibition in early childhood shape adolescent social withdrawal.

PubMed

Pérez-Edgar, Koraly; Bar-Haim, Yair; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Pine, Daniel S; Fox, Nathan A

2010-06-01

Behavioral inhibition (BI) is a temperament characterized in young children by a heightened sensitivity to novelty, social withdrawal, and anxious behaviors. For many children, these social difficulties dissipate over time. For others, patterns of social withdrawal continue into adolescence. Over time, attention biases to threat may influence the stability of BI and its association with social withdrawal, ultimately modulating the risk for anxiety disorders in BI children. However, we know relatively little about the cognitive processes that accompany BI and shape later socio-emotional functioning. We examined the relations among BI in childhood, attention biases to threat in adolescence, and adolescent social withdrawal in a longitudinal study (N = 126, Mean age = 15 years). As has been reported in anxious adults, adolescents who were behaviorally inhibited as toddlers and young children showed heightened attention bias to threat. In addition, attention bias to threat moderated the relation between childhood BI and adolescent social withdrawal.

Sensitivity of Last Glacial Maximum climate to uncertainties in tropical and subtropical ocean temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.; Pisias, N.; Mix, A.

2006-01-01

The faunal and floral gradients that underlie the CLIMAP (1981) sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) reflect ocean temperature gradients and frontal positions. The transfer functions used to reconstruct SSTs from biologic gradients are biased, however, because at the warmest sites they display inherently low sensitivity in translating fauna to SST and they underestimate SST within the euphotic zones where the pycnocline is strong. Here we assemble available data and apply a statistical approach to adjust for hypothetical biases in the faunal-based SST estimates of LGM temperature. The largest bias adjustments are distributed in the tropics (to address low sensitivity) and subtropics (to address underestimation in the euphotic zones). The resulting SSTs are generally in better agreement than CLIMAP with recent geochemical estimates of glacial-interglacial temperature changes. We conducted a series of model experiments using the GENESIS general atmospheric circulation model to assess the sensitivity of the climate system to our bias-adjusted SSTs. Globally, the new SST field results in a modeled LGM surface-air cooling relative to present of 6.4 ??C (1.9 ??C cooler than that of CLIMAP). Relative to the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs, modeled precipitation over the oceans is reduced by 0.4 mm d-1 (an anomaly -0.4 versus 0.0 mm d-1 for CLIMAP) and increased over land (an anomaly -0.2 versus -0.5 mm d-1 for CLIMAP). Regionally strong responses are induced by changes in SST gradients. Data-model comparisons indicate improvement in agreement relative to CLIMAP, but differences among terrestrial data inferences and simulated moisture and temperature remain. Our SSTs result in positive mass balance over the northern hemisphere ice sheets (primarily through reduced summer ablation), supporting the hypothesis that tropical and subtropical ocean temperatures may have played a role in triggering glacial changes at higher latitudes.

An Observation-based Assessment of Instrument Requirements for a Future Precipitation Process Observing System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, E.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Wood, N.; Smalley, M.; Kulie, M.; Hahn, W.

2017-12-01

Global models exhibit substantial biases in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scales of precipitation systems. Much of this uncertainty stems from an inadequate representation of the processes by which water is cycled between the surface and atmosphere and, in particular, those that govern the formation and maintenance of cloud systems and their propensity to form the precipitation. Progress toward improving precipitation process models requires observing systems capable of quantifying the coupling between the ice content, vertical mass fluxes, and precipitation yield of precipitating cloud systems. Spaceborne multi-frequency, Doppler radar offers a unique opportunity to address this need but the effectiveness of such a mission is heavily dependent on its ability to actually observe the processes of interest in the widest possible range of systems. Planning for a next generation precipitation process observing system should, therefore, start with a fundamental evaluation of the trade-offs between sensitivity, resolution, sampling, cost, and the overall potential scientific yield of the mission. Here we provide an initial assessment of the scientific and economic trade-space by evaluating hypothetical spaceborne multi-frequency radars using a combination of current real-world and model-derived synthetic observations. Specifically, we alter the field of view, vertical resolution, and sensitivity of a hypothetical Ka- and W-band radar system and propagate those changes through precipitation detection and intensity retrievals. The results suggest that sampling biases introduced by reducing sensitivity disproportionately affect the light rainfall and frozen precipitation regimes that are critical for warm cloud feedbacks and ice sheet mass balance, respectively. Coarser spatial resolution observations introduce regime-dependent biases in both precipitation occurrence and intensity that depend on cloud regime, with even the sign of the bias varying within a single storm system. It is suggested that the next generation spaceborne radar have a minimum sensitivity of -5 dBZ and spatial resolution of at least 3 km at all frequencies to adequately sample liquid and ice phase precipitation processes globally.

Comparison of improved Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) CO 2 with HIPPO and SGP aircraft profile measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kulawik, S. S.; Worden, J. R.; Wofsy, S. C.

2012-01-01

Comparisons are made between mid-tropospheric Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) satellite measurements and ocean profiles from three Hiaper Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns and land aircraft profiles from the United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site over a 4-yr period. These comparisons are used to characterize the bias in the TES CO{sub 2} estimates and to assess whether calculated and actual uncertainties and sensitivities are consistent. The HIPPO dataset is one of the few datasets spanning the altitude range where TES CO{sub 2} estimates are sensitive, which is especially important for characterization of biases.more » We find that TES CO{sub 2} estimates capture the seasonal and latitudinal gradients observed by HIPPO CO{sub 2} measurements; actual errors range from 0.8–1.2 ppm, depending on the campaign, and are approximately 1.4 times larger than the predicted errors. The bias of TES versus HIPPO is within 0.85 ppm for each of the 3 campaigns; however several of the sub-tropical TES CO{sub 2} estimates are lower than expected based on the calculated errors. Comparisons of aircraft flask profiles, which are measured from the surface to 5 km, to TES CO{sub 2} at the SGP ARM site show good agreement with an overall bias of 0.1 ppm and rms of 1.0 ppm. We also find that the predicted sensitivity of the TES CO{sub 2} estimates is too high, which results from using a multi-step retrieval for CO{sub 2} and temperature. We find that the averaging kernel in the TES product corrected by a pressure-dependent factor accurately reflects the sensitivity of the TES CO{sub 2} product.« less

Quality and sensitivity of high-resolution numerical simulation of urban heat islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie

2014-05-01

High-resolution numerical simulations of the urban heat island (UHI) effect with the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are assessed. Both the sensitivity of the results to the simulation setup, and the quality of the simulated fields as representations of the real world, are investigated. Results indicate that the WRF-simulated surface temperatures are more sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme choice during nighttime, and more sensitive to the surface thermal roughness length parameterization during daytime. The urban surface temperatures simulated by WRF are also highly sensitive to the urban canopy model (UCM) used. The implementation in this study of an improved UCM (the Princeton UCM or PUCM) that allows the simulation of heterogeneous urban facets and of key hydrological processes, together with the so-called CZ09 parameterization for the thermal roughness length, significantly reduce the bias (<1.5 °C) in the surface temperature fields as compared to satellite observations during daytime. The boundary layer potential temperature profiles are captured by WRF reasonable well at both urban and rural sites; the biases in these profiles relative to aircraft-mounted senor measurements are on the order of 1.5 °C. Changing UCMs and PBL schemes does not alter the performance of WRF in reproducing bulk boundary layer temperature profiles significantly. The results illustrate the wide range of urban environmental conditions that various configurations of WRF can produce, and the significant biases that should be assessed before inferences are made based on WRF outputs. The optimal set-up of WRF-PUCM developed in this paper also paves the way for a confident exploration of the city-scale impacts of UHI mitigation strategies in the companion paper (Li et al 2014).

Vector network analyzer ferromagnetic resonance spectrometer with field differential detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamaru, S.; Tsunegi, S.; Kubota, H.; Yuasa, S.

2018-05-01

This work presents a vector network analyzer ferromagnetic resonance (VNA-FMR) spectrometer with field differential detection. This technique differentiates the S-parameter by applying a small binary modulation field in addition to the DC bias field to the sample. By setting the modulation frequency sufficiently high, slow sensitivity fluctuations of the VNA, i.e., low-frequency components of the trace noise, which limit the signal-to-noise ratio of the conventional VNA-FMR spectrometer, can be effectively removed, resulting in a very clean FMR signal. This paper presents the details of the hardware implementation and measurement sequence as well as the data processing and analysis algorithms tailored for the FMR spectrum obtained with this technique. Because the VNA measures a complex S-parameter, it is possible to estimate the Gilbert damping parameter from the slope of the phase variation of the S-parameter with respect to the bias field. We show that this algorithm is more robust against noise than the conventional algorithm based on the linewidth.

Present and future of prophylactic antibiotics for severe acute pancreatitis

PubMed Central

Jiang, Kun; Huang, Wei; Yang, Xiao-Nan; Xia, Qing

2012-01-01

AIM: To investigate the role of prophylactic antibiotics in the reduction of mortality of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) patients, which is highly questioned by more and more randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses. METHODS: An updated meta-analysis was performed. RCTs comparing prophylactic antibiotics for SAP with control or placebo were included for meta-analysis. The mortality outcomes were pooled for estimation, and re-pooled estimation was performed by the sensitivity analysis of an ideal large-scale RCT. RESULTS: Currently available 11 RCTs were included. Subgroup analysis showed that there was significant reduction of mortality rate in the period before 2000, while no significant reduction in the period from 2000 [Risk Ratio, (RR) = 1.01, P = 0.98]. Funnel plot indicated that there might be apparent publication bias in the period before 2000. Sensitivity analysis showed that the RR of mortality rate ranged from 0.77 to 1.00 with a relatively narrow confidence interval (P < 0.05). However, the number needed to treat having a minor lower limit of the range (7-5096 patients) implied that certain SAP patients could still potentially prevent death by antibiotic prophylaxis. CONCLUSION: Current evidences do not support prophylactic antibiotics as a routine treatment for SAP, but the potentially benefited sub-population requires further investigations. PMID:22294832

The correlation between apparent diffusion coefficient and tumor cellularity in patients: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Lihua; Liu, Min; Bao, Jing; Xia, Yunbao; Zhang, Jiuquan; Zhang, Lin; Huang, Xuequan; Wang, Jian

2013-01-01

To perform a meta-analysis exploring the correlation between the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and tumor cellularity in patients. We searched medical and scientific literature databases for studies discussing the correlation between the ADC and tumor cellularity in patients. Only studies that were published in English or Chinese prior to November 2012 were considered for inclusion. Summary correlation coefficient (r) values were extracted from each study, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed to investigate potential heterogeneity. Of 189 studies, 28 were included in the meta-analysis, comprising 729 patients. The pooled r for all studies was -0.57 (95% CI: -0.62, -0.52), indicating notable heterogeneity (P<0.001). After the sensitivity analysis, two studies were excluded, and the pooled r was -0.61 (95% CI: -0.66, -0.56) and was not significantly heterogeneous (P = 0.127). Regarding tumor type subgroup analysis, there were sufficient data to support a strong negative correlation between the ADC and cellularity for brain tumors. There was no notable evidence of publication bias. There is a strong negative correlation between the ADC and tumor cellularity in patients, particularly in the brain. However, larger, prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings in other cancer types.

Method for exploiting bias in factor analysis using constrained alternating least squares algorithms

DOEpatents

Keenan, Michael R.

2008-12-30

Bias plays an important role in factor analysis and is often implicitly made use of, for example, to constrain solutions to factors that conform to physical reality. However, when components are collinear, a large range of solutions may exist that satisfy the basic constraints and fit the data equally well. In such cases, the introduction of mathematical bias through the application of constraints may select solutions that are less than optimal. The biased alternating least squares algorithm of the present invention can offset mathematical bias introduced by constraints in the standard alternating least squares analysis to achieve factor solutions that are most consistent with physical reality. In addition, these methods can be used to explicitly exploit bias to provide alternative views and provide additional insights into spectral data sets.

Study on the effect of measuring methods on incident photon-to-electron conversion efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells by home-made setup.

PubMed

Guo, Xiao-Zhi; Luo, Yan-Hong; Zhang, Yi-Duo; Huang, Xiao-Chun; Li, Dong-Mei; Meng, Qing-Bo

2010-10-01

An experimental setup is built for the measurement of monochromatic incident photon-to-electron conversion efficiency (IPCE) of solar cells. With this setup, three kinds of IPCE measuring methods as well as the convenient switching between them are achieved. The setup can also measure the response time and waveform of the short-circuit current of solar cell. Using this setup, IPCE results of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) are determined and compared under different illumination conditions with each method. It is found that the IPCE values measured by AC method involving the lock-in technique are sincerely influenced by modulation frequency and bias illumination. Measurements of the response time and waveform of short-circuit current have revealed that this effect can be explained by the slow response of DSCs. To get accurate IPCE values by this method, the measurement should be carried out with a low modulation frequency and under bias illumination. The IPCE values measured by DC method under the bias light illumination will be disturbed since the short-circuit current increased with time continuously due to the temperature rise of DSC. Therefore, temperature control of DSC is considered necessary for IPCE measurement especially in DC method with bias light illumination. Additionally, high bias light intensity (>2 sun) is found to decrease the IPCE values due to the ion transport limitation of the electrolyte.