Estimation of Causal Mediation Effects for a Dichotomous Outcome in Multiple-Mediator Models using the Mediation Formula

PubMed Central

Nelson, Suchitra; Albert, Jeffrey M.

2013-01-01

Mediators are intermediate variables in the causal pathway between an exposure and an outcome. Mediation analysis investigates the extent to which exposure effects occur through these variables, thus revealing causal mechanisms. In this paper, we consider the estimation of the mediation effect when the outcome is binary and multiple mediators of different types exist. We give a precise definition of the total mediation effect as well as decomposed mediation effects through individual or sets of mediators using the potential outcomes framework. We formulate a model of joint distribution (probit-normal) using continuous latent variables for any binary mediators to account for correlations among multiple mediators. A mediation formula approach is proposed to estimate the total mediation effect and decomposed mediation effects based on this parametric model. Estimation of mediation effects through individual or subsets of mediators requires an assumption involving the joint distribution of multiple counterfactuals. We conduct a simulation study that demonstrates low bias of mediation effect estimators for two-mediator models with various combinations of mediator types. The results also show that the power to detect a non-zero total mediation effect increases as the correlation coefficient between two mediators increases, while power for individual mediation effects reaches a maximum when the mediators are uncorrelated. We illustrate our approach by applying it to a retrospective cohort study of dental caries in adolescents with low and high socioeconomic status. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the robustness of conclusions regarding mediation effects when the assumption of no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounders is violated. PMID:23650048

Estimation of causal mediation effects for a dichotomous outcome in multiple-mediator models using the mediation formula.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Nelson, Suchitra; Albert, Jeffrey M

2013-10-30

Mediators are intermediate variables in the causal pathway between an exposure and an outcome. Mediation analysis investigates the extent to which exposure effects occur through these variables, thus revealing causal mechanisms. In this paper, we consider the estimation of the mediation effect when the outcome is binary and multiple mediators of different types exist. We give a precise definition of the total mediation effect as well as decomposed mediation effects through individual or sets of mediators using the potential outcomes framework. We formulate a model of joint distribution (probit-normal) using continuous latent variables for any binary mediators to account for correlations among multiple mediators. A mediation formula approach is proposed to estimate the total mediation effect and decomposed mediation effects based on this parametric model. Estimation of mediation effects through individual or subsets of mediators requires an assumption involving the joint distribution of multiple counterfactuals. We conduct a simulation study that demonstrates low bias of mediation effect estimators for two-mediator models with various combinations of mediator types. The results also show that the power to detect a nonzero total mediation effect increases as the correlation coefficient between two mediators increases, whereas power for individual mediation effects reaches a maximum when the mediators are uncorrelated. We illustrate our approach by applying it to a retrospective cohort study of dental caries in adolescents with low and high socioeconomic status. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the robustness of conclusions regarding mediation effects when the assumption of no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounders is violated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the Run-Time Optimization of the Boolean Logic of a Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cadolino, C.; Guazzo, M.

1982-01-01

Considers problem of optimal scheduling of Boolean expression (each Boolean variable represents binary outcome of program module) on single-processor system. Optimization discussed consists of finding operand arrangement that minimizes average execution costs representing consumption of resources (elapsed time, main memory, number of…

Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the ML, WLSMV and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms WLSMV/ML regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration. PMID:27158217

A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

2016-02-28

Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Editorial: Let's talk about sex - the gender binary revisited.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2017-08-01

Sex refers to biological differences and gender to socioculturally delineated masculine and feminine roles. Sex or gender are included as a covariate or effect modifier in the majority of child psychology and psychiatry studies, and differences found between boys and girls have inspired many researchers to postulate underlying mechanisms. Empirical tests of whether including these proposed explanatory variables actually reduces the variance explained by gender are lagging behind somewhat. That is a pity, because a lot can be gained from a greater focus on the active agents of specific gender differences. As opposed to biological sex as such, some of the processes explaining why a specific outcome shows gender differences may be changeable and so possible prevention targets. Moreover, while the sex binary may be reasonable adequate as a classification variable, the gender binary is far from perfect. Gender is a multidimensional, partly context-dependent factor, and the dichotomy generally used in research does not do justice to the diversity existing within boys and girls. © 2017 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Measuring Intervention Effectiveness: The Benefits of an Item Response Theory Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McEldoon, Katherine; Cho, Sun-Joo; Rittle-Johnson, Bethany

2012-01-01

Assessing the effectiveness of educational interventions relies on quantifying differences between interventions groups over time in a between-within design. Binary outcome variables (e.g., correct responses versus incorrect responses) are often assessed. Widespread approaches use percent correct on assessments, and repeated measures analysis of…

Sensitivity subgroup analysis based on single-center vs. multi-center trial status when interpreting meta-analyses pooled estimates: the logical way forward.

PubMed

Alexander, Paul E; Bonner, Ashley J; Agarwal, Arnav; Li, Shelly-Anne; Hariharan, Abishek; Izhar, Zain; Bhatnagar, Neera; Alba, Carolina; Akl, Elie A; Fei, Yutong; Guyatt, Gordon H; Beyene, Joseph

2016-06-01

Prior studies regarding whether single-center trial estimates are larger than multi-center are equivocal. We examined the extent to which single-center trials yield systematically larger effects than multi-center trials. We searched the 119 core clinical journals and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for meta-analyses (MAs) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published during 2012. In this meta-epidemiologic study, for binary variables, we computed the pooled ratio of ORs (RORs), and for continuous outcomes mean difference in standardized mean differences (SMDs), we conducted weighted random-effects meta-regression and random-effects MA modeling. Our primary analyses were restricted to MAs that included at least five RCTs and in which at least 25% of the studies used each of single trial center (SC) and more trial center (MC) designs. We identified 81 MAs for the odds ratio (OR) and 43 for the SMD outcome measures. Based on our analytic plan, our primary analysis (core) is based on 25 MAs/241 RCTs (binary outcome) and 18 MAs/173 RCTs (continuous outcome). Based on the core analysis, we found no difference in magnitude of effect between SC and MC for binary outcomes [RORs: 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.24; I(2) 20.2%]. Effect sizes were systematically larger for SC than MC for the continuous outcome measure (mean difference in SMDs: -0.13; 95% CI: -0.21, -0.05; I(2) 0%). Our results do not support prior findings of larger effects in SC than MC trials addressing binary outcomes but show a very similar small increase in effect in SC than MC trials addressing continuous outcomes. Authors of systematic reviews would be wise to include all trials irrespective of SC vs. MC design and address SC vs. MC status as a possible explanation of heterogeneity (and consider sensitivity analyses). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining the Error of Mis-Specifying Nonlinear Confounding Effect With Application on Accelerometer-Measured Physical Activity.

PubMed

Lee, Paul H

2017-06-01

Some confounders are nonlinearly associated with dependent variables, but they are often adjusted using a linear term. The purpose of this study was to examine the error of mis-specifying the nonlinear confounding effect. We carried out a simulation study to investigate the effect of adjusting for a nonlinear confounder in the estimation of a causal relationship between the exposure and outcome in 3 ways: using a linear term, binning into 5 equal-size categories, or using a restricted cubic spline of the confounder. Continuous, binary, and survival outcomes were simulated. We examined the confounder across varying measurement error. In addition, we performed a real data analysis examining the 3 strategies to handle the nonlinear effects of accelerometer-measured physical activity in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2006 data. The mis-specification of a nonlinear confounder had little impact on causal effect estimation for continuous outcomes. For binary and survival outcomes, this mis-specification introduced bias, which could be eliminated using spline adjustment only when there is small measurement error of the confounder. Real data analysis showed that the associations between high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes and mortality adjusted for physical activity with restricted cubic spline were about 3% to 11% larger than their counterparts adjusted with a linear term. For continuous outcomes, confounders with nonlinear effects can be adjusting with a linear term. Spline adjustment should be used for binary and survival outcomes on confounders with small measurement error.

Causal inference with measurement error in outcomes: Bias analysis and estimation methods.

PubMed

Shu, Di; Yi, Grace Y

2017-01-01

Inverse probability weighting estimation has been popularly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect. Its validity, however, is challenged by the presence of error-prone variables. In this paper, we explore the inverse probability weighting estimation with mismeasured outcome variables. We study the impact of measurement error for both continuous and discrete outcome variables and reveal interesting consequences of the naive analysis which ignores measurement error. When a continuous outcome variable is mismeasured under an additive measurement error model, the naive analysis may still yield a consistent estimator; when the outcome is binary, we derive the asymptotic bias in a closed-form. Furthermore, we develop consistent estimation procedures for practical scenarios where either validation data or replicates are available. With validation data, we propose an efficient method for estimation of average treatment effect; the efficiency gain is substantial relative to usual methods of using validation data. To provide protection against model misspecification, we further propose a doubly robust estimator which is consistent even when either the treatment model or the outcome model is misspecified. Simulation studies are reported to assess the performance of the proposed methods. An application to a smoking cessation dataset is presented.

Clinical and Microbiologic Characteristics of Clostridium difficile Infection Caused by Binary Toxin Producing Strain in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jieun; Seo, Mi-Ran; Kang, Jung Oak; Choi, Tae Yeal; Pai, Hyunjoo

2013-06-01

Binary toxin-producing Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) are known to be more severe and to cause higher case fatality rates than those by binary toxin-negative isolates. There has been few data of binary toxin-producing CDI in Korea. Objective of the study is to characterize clinical and microbiological trait of CDI cause by binary-toxin producing isolates in Korea. From September 2008 through January 2010, clinical characteristics, medication history and treatment outcome of all the CDI patients were collected prospectively. Toxin characterization, PCR ribotyping and antibiotic susceptibility were performed with the stool isolates of C. difficile. During the period, CDI caused by 11binary toxin-producing isolates and 105 toxin A & toxin B-positive binary toxin-negative isolates were identified. Comparing the disease severity and clinical findings between two groups, leukocytosis and mucoid stool were more frequently observed in patients with binary toxin-positive isolates (OR: 5.2, 95% CI: 1.1 to 25.4, P = 0.043; OR: 7.6, 95% CI: 1.6 to 35.6, P = 0.010, respectively), but clinical outcome of 2 groups did not show any difference. For the risk factors for acquisition of binary toxin-positive isolates, previous use of glycopeptides was the significant risk factor (OR: 6.2, 95% CI: 1.4 to 28.6, P = 0.019), but use of probiotics worked as an inhibitory factor (OR: 0.1, 95% CI: 0.0 to 0.8; P = 0.026). PCR ribotypes of binary toxinproducing C. difficile showed variable patterns: ribotype 130, 4 isolates; 027, 3 isolates; 267 and 122, 1 each isolate and unidentified C1, 2 isolates. All 11 binary toxin-positive isolates were highly susceptible to clindamycin, moxifloxacin, metronidazole, vancomycin and piperacillin-tazobactam, however, 1 of 11 of the isolates was resistant to rifaximin. Binary toxin-producing C. difficile infection was not common in Korea and those isolates showed diverse PCR ribotypes with high susceptibility to antimicrobial agents. Glycopeptide use was a risk factor for CDI by those isolates.

Clinical and Microbiologic Characteristics of Clostridium difficile Infection Caused by Binary Toxin Producing Strain in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Jieun; Seo, Mi-ran; Kang, Jung Oak; Choi, Tae Yeal

2013-01-01

Background Binary toxin-producing Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) are known to be more severe and to cause higher case fatality rates than those by binary toxin-negative isolates. There has been few data of binary toxin-producing CDI in Korea. Objective of the study is to characterize clinical and microbiological trait of CDI cause by binary-toxin producing isolates in Korea. Materials and Methods From September 2008 through January 2010, clinical characteristics, medication history and treatment outcome of all the CDI patients were collected prospectively. Toxin characterization, PCR ribotyping and antibiotic susceptibility were performed with the stool isolates of C. difficile. Results During the period, CDI caused by 11binary toxin-producing isolates and 105 toxin A & toxin B-positive binary toxin-negative isolates were identified. Comparing the disease severity and clinical findings between two groups, leukocytosis and mucoid stool were more frequently observed in patients with binary toxin-positive isolates (OR: 5.2, 95% CI: 1.1 to 25.4, P = 0.043; OR: 7.6, 95% CI: 1.6 to 35.6, P = 0.010, respectively), but clinical outcome of 2 groups did not show any difference. For the risk factors for acquisition of binary toxin-positive isolates, previous use of glycopeptides was the significant risk factor (OR: 6.2, 95% CI: 1.4 to 28.6, P = 0.019), but use of probiotics worked as an inhibitory factor (OR: 0.1, 95% CI: 0.0 to 0.8; P = 0.026). PCR ribotypes of binary toxinproducing C. difficile showed variable patterns: ribotype 130, 4 isolates; 027, 3 isolates; 267 and 122, 1 each isolate and unidentified C1, 2 isolates. All 11 binary toxin-positive isolates were highly susceptible to clindamycin, moxifloxacin, metronidazole, vancomycin and piperacillin-tazobactam, however, 1 of 11 of the isolates was resistant to rifaximin. Conclusions Binary toxin-producing C. difficile infection was not common in Korea and those isolates showed diverse PCR ribotypes with high susceptibility to antimicrobial agents. Glycopeptide use was a risk factor for CDI by those isolates. PMID:24265965

Beyond logistic regression: structural equations modelling for binary variables and its application to investigating unobserved confounders.

PubMed

Kupek, Emil

2006-03-15

Structural equation modelling (SEM) has been increasingly used in medical statistics for solving a system of related regression equations. However, a great obstacle for its wider use has been its difficulty in handling categorical variables within the framework of generalised linear models. A large data set with a known structure among two related outcomes and three independent variables was generated to investigate the use of Yule's transformation of odds ratio (OR) into Q-metric by (OR-1)/(OR+1) to approximate Pearson's correlation coefficients between binary variables whose covariance structure can be further analysed by SEM. Percent of correctly classified events and non-events was compared with the classification obtained by logistic regression. The performance of SEM based on Q-metric was also checked on a small (N = 100) random sample of the data generated and on a real data set. SEM successfully recovered the generated model structure. SEM of real data suggested a significant influence of a latent confounding variable which would have not been detectable by standard logistic regression. SEM classification performance was broadly similar to that of the logistic regression. The analysis of binary data can be greatly enhanced by Yule's transformation of odds ratios into estimated correlation matrix that can be further analysed by SEM. The interpretation of results is aided by expressing them as odds ratios which are the most frequently used measure of effect in medical statistics.

Observation of Stronger-than-Binary Correlations with Entangled Photonic Qutrits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao-Min; Liu, Bi-Heng; Guo, Yu; Xiang, Guo-Yong; Huang, Yun-Feng; Li, Chuan-Feng; Guo, Guang-Can; Kleinmann, Matthias; Vértesi, Tamás; Cabello, Adán

2018-05-01

We present the first experimental confirmation of the quantum-mechanical prediction of stronger-than-binary correlations. These are correlations that cannot be explained under the assumption that the occurrence of a particular outcome of an n ≥3 -outcome measurement is due to a two-step process in which, in the first step, some classical mechanism precludes n -2 of the outcomes and, in the second step, a binary measurement generates the outcome. Our experiment uses pairs of photonic qutrits distributed between two laboratories, where randomly chosen three-outcome measurements are performed. We report a violation by 9.3 standard deviations of the optimal inequality for nonsignaling binary correlations.

The OGLE Collection of Variable Stars. Over 450 000 Eclipsing and Ellipsoidal Binary Systems Toward the Galactic Bulge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soszyński, I.; Pawlak, M.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Udalski, A.; Szymański, M. K.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Ulaczyk, K.; Poleski, R.; Kozłowski, S.; Skowron, D. M.; Skowron, J.; Mróz, P.; Hamanowicz, A.

2016-12-01

We present a collection of 450 598 eclipsing and ellipsoidal binary systems detected in the OGLE fields toward the Galactic bulge. The collection consists of binary systems of all types: detached, semi-detached, and contact eclipsing binaries, RS CVn stars, cataclysmic variables, HW Vir binaries, double periodic variables, and even planetary transits. For all stars we provide the I- and V-band time-series photometry obtained during the OGLE-II, OGLE-III, and OGLE-IV surveys. We discuss methods used to identify binary systems in the OGLE data and present several objects of particular interest.

The Search for Bright Variable Stars in Open Cluster NGC 6819.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talamantes, Antonio; Sandquist, E. L.

2009-01-01

During this research period data was taken for seven nights at the 1m telescope at Mt. Laguna Observatory for the open cluster NGC 6819. For four of the nights data was taken using a V-band filter. For the three nights remaining nights the data was taken using an R-band filter. Photometry was done using the ISIS image subtraction package. Six new variable stars were located using these techniques. These variable types include a pulsating variable, five detached eclipsing binaries. Of the detached eclipsing binaries, three are near the cluster turnoff and two in the blue straggler region(and one of these has total eclipses). Nine previously known variables(six contact binaries, two detached eclipsing binaries and one near-contact binary) were also studied.

Non-local boxes and their implementation in Minecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simnacher, Timo Yannick

PR-boxes are binary devices connecting two remote parties satisfying x AND y = a + b mod 2, where x and y denote the binary inputs and a and b are the respective outcomes without signaling. These devices are named after their inventors Sandu Popescu and Daniel Rohrlich and saturate the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) inequality. This Bell-like inequality bounds the correlation that can exist between two remote, non-signaling, classical systems described by local hidden variable theories. Experiments have now convincingly shown that quantum entanglement cannot be explained by local hidden variable theories. Furthermore, the CHSH inequality provides a method to distinguish quantum systems from super-quantum correlations. The correlation between the outputs of the PR-box goes beyond any quantum entanglement. Though PR-boxes would have impressive consequences, as far as we know they are not physically realizable. However, by introducing PR-boxes to Minecraft as part of the redstone system, which simulates the electrical components for binary computing, we can experience the consequences of super-quantum correlations. For instance, Wim van Dam proved that two parties can use a sufficient number of PR-boxes to compute any Boolean function f(x,y) with only one bit of communication.

Assessing the performance of the generalized propensity score for estimating the effect of quantitative or continuous exposures on binary outcomes

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate the effects of treatments and exposures when using observational data. The propensity score was initially developed for use with binary exposures. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score for use with quantitative or continuous exposures (eg, dose or quantity of medication, income, or years of education). We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of different methods of using the GPS to estimate the effect of continuous exposures on binary outcomes. We examined covariate adjustment using the GPS and weighting using weights based on the inverse of the GPS. We examined both the use of ordinary least squares to estimate the propensity function and the use of the covariate balancing propensity score algorithm. The use of methods based on the GPS was compared with the use of G‐computation. All methods resulted in essentially unbiased estimation of the population dose‐response function. However, GPS‐based weighting tended to result in estimates that displayed greater variability and had higher mean squared error when the magnitude of confounding was strong. Of the methods based on the GPS, covariate adjustment using the GPS tended to result in estimates with lower variability and mean squared error when the magnitude of confounding was strong. We illustrate the application of these methods by estimating the effect of average neighborhood income on the probability of death within 1 year of hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction. PMID:29508424

Assessing the performance of the generalized propensity score for estimating the effect of quantitative or continuous exposures on binary outcomes.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2018-05-20

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate the effects of treatments and exposures when using observational data. The propensity score was initially developed for use with binary exposures. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score for use with quantitative or continuous exposures (eg, dose or quantity of medication, income, or years of education). We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of different methods of using the GPS to estimate the effect of continuous exposures on binary outcomes. We examined covariate adjustment using the GPS and weighting using weights based on the inverse of the GPS. We examined both the use of ordinary least squares to estimate the propensity function and the use of the covariate balancing propensity score algorithm. The use of methods based on the GPS was compared with the use of G-computation. All methods resulted in essentially unbiased estimation of the population dose-response function. However, GPS-based weighting tended to result in estimates that displayed greater variability and had higher mean squared error when the magnitude of confounding was strong. Of the methods based on the GPS, covariate adjustment using the GPS tended to result in estimates with lower variability and mean squared error when the magnitude of confounding was strong. We illustrate the application of these methods by estimating the effect of average neighborhood income on the probability of death within 1 year of hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

PubMed

Bender, Ralf

2009-01-01

Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

Negative control exposure studies in the presence of measurement error: implications for attempted effect estimate calibration

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Eleanor; Macdonald-Wallis, Corrie; Davey Smith, George

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Negative control exposure studies are increasingly being used in epidemiological studies to strengthen causal inference regarding an exposure-outcome association when unobserved confounding is thought to be present. Negative control exposure studies contrast the magnitude of association of the negative control, which has no causal effect on the outcome but is associated with the unmeasured confounders in the same way as the exposure, with the magnitude of the association of the exposure with the outcome. A markedly larger effect of the exposure on the outcome than the negative control on the outcome strengthens inference that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome. Methods We investigate the effect of measurement error in the exposure and negative control variables on the results obtained from a negative control exposure study. We do this in models with continuous and binary exposure and negative control variables using analysis of the bias of the estimated coefficients and Monte Carlo simulations. Results Our results show that measurement error in either the exposure or negative control variables can bias the estimated results from the negative control exposure study. Conclusions Measurement error is common in the variables used in epidemiological studies; these results show that negative control exposure studies cannot be used to precisely determine the size of the effect of the exposure variable, or adequately adjust for unobserved confounding; however, they can be used as part of a body of evidence to aid inference as to whether a causal effect of the exposure on the outcome is present. PMID:29088358

Negative control exposure studies in the presence of measurement error: implications for attempted effect estimate calibration.

PubMed

Sanderson, Eleanor; Macdonald-Wallis, Corrie; Davey Smith, George

2018-04-01

Negative control exposure studies are increasingly being used in epidemiological studies to strengthen causal inference regarding an exposure-outcome association when unobserved confounding is thought to be present. Negative control exposure studies contrast the magnitude of association of the negative control, which has no causal effect on the outcome but is associated with the unmeasured confounders in the same way as the exposure, with the magnitude of the association of the exposure with the outcome. A markedly larger effect of the exposure on the outcome than the negative control on the outcome strengthens inference that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome. We investigate the effect of measurement error in the exposure and negative control variables on the results obtained from a negative control exposure study. We do this in models with continuous and binary exposure and negative control variables using analysis of the bias of the estimated coefficients and Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that measurement error in either the exposure or negative control variables can bias the estimated results from the negative control exposure study. Measurement error is common in the variables used in epidemiological studies; these results show that negative control exposure studies cannot be used to precisely determine the size of the effect of the exposure variable, or adequately adjust for unobserved confounding; however, they can be used as part of a body of evidence to aid inference as to whether a causal effect of the exposure on the outcome is present.

Predicting outcome in severe traumatic brain injury using a simple prognostic model.

PubMed

Sobuwa, Simpiwe; Hartzenberg, Henry Benjamin; Geduld, Heike; Uys, Corrie

2014-06-17

Several studies have made it possible to predict outcome in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) making it beneficial as an aid for clinical decision-making in the emergency setting. However, reliable predictive models are lacking for resource-limited prehospital settings such as those in developing countries like South Africa. To develop a simple predictive model for severe TBI using clinical variables in a South African prehospital setting. All consecutive patients admitted at two level-one centres in Cape Town, South Africa, for severe TBI were included. A binary logistic regression model was used, which included three predictor variables: oxygen saturation (SpO₂), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and pupil reactivity. The Glasgow Outcome Scale was used to assess outcome on hospital discharge. A total of 74.4% of the outcomes were correctly predicted by the logistic regression model. The model demonstrated SpO₂ (p=0.019), GCS (p=0.001) and pupil reactivity (p=0.002) as independently significant predictors of outcome in severe TBI. Odds ratios of a good outcome were 3.148 (SpO₂ ≥ 90%), 5.108 (GCS 6 - 8) and 4.405 (pupils bilaterally reactive). This model is potentially useful for effective predictions of outcome in severe TBI.

The Use of Linear Instrumental Variables Methods in Health Services Research and Health Economics: A Cautionary Note

PubMed Central

Terza, Joseph V; Bradford, W David; Dismuke, Clara E

2008-01-01

Objective To investigate potential bias in the use of the conventional linear instrumental variables (IV) method for the estimation of causal effects in inherently nonlinear regression settings. Data Sources Smoking Supplement to the 1979 National Health Interview Survey, National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey, and simulated data. Study Design Potential bias from the use of the linear IV method in nonlinear models is assessed via simulation studies and real world data analyses in two commonly encountered regression setting: (1) models with a nonnegative outcome (e.g., a count) and a continuous endogenous regressor; and (2) models with a binary outcome and a binary endogenous regressor. Principle Findings The simulation analyses show that substantial bias in the estimation of causal effects can result from applying the conventional IV method in inherently nonlinear regression settings. Moreover, the bias is not attenuated as the sample size increases. This point is further illustrated in the survey data analyses in which IV-based estimates of the relevant causal effects diverge substantially from those obtained with appropriate nonlinear estimation methods. Conclusions We offer this research as a cautionary note to those who would opt for the use of linear specifications in inherently nonlinear settings involving endogeneity. PMID:18546544

Power calculator for instrumental variable analysis in pharmacoepidemiology

PubMed Central

Walker, Venexia M; Davies, Neil M; Windmeijer, Frank; Burgess, Stephen; Martin, Richard M

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Instrumental variable analysis, for example with physicians’ prescribing preferences as an instrument for medications issued in primary care, is an increasingly popular method in the field of pharmacoepidemiology. Existing power calculators for studies using instrumental variable analysis, such as Mendelian randomization power calculators, do not allow for the structure of research questions in this field. This is because the analysis in pharmacoepidemiology will typically have stronger instruments and detect larger causal effects than in other fields. Consequently, there is a need for dedicated power calculators for pharmacoepidemiological research. Methods and Results The formula for calculating the power of a study using instrumental variable analysis in the context of pharmacoepidemiology is derived before being validated by a simulation study. The formula is applicable for studies using a single binary instrument to analyse the causal effect of a binary exposure on a continuous outcome. An online calculator, as well as packages in both R and Stata, are provided for the implementation of the formula by others. Conclusions The statistical power of instrumental variable analysis in pharmacoepidemiological studies to detect a clinically meaningful treatment effect is an important consideration. Research questions in this field have distinct structures that must be accounted for when calculating power. The formula presented differs from existing instrumental variable power formulae due to its parametrization, which is designed specifically for ease of use by pharmacoepidemiologists. PMID:28575313

The Clusters AgeS Experiment (CASE). Variable stars in the field of the globular cluster NGC 362

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozyczka, M.; Thompson, I. B.; Narloch, W.; Pych, W.; Schwarzenberg-Czerny, A.

2016-09-01

The field of the globular cluster NGC 362 was monitored between 1997 and 2015 in a search for variable stars. BV light curves were obtained for 151 periodic or likely periodic variable stars, over a hundred of which are new detections. Twelve newly detected variable stars are proper-motion members of the cluster: two SX Phe and two RR Lyr pulsators, one contact binary, three detached or semi-detached eclipsing binaries, and four spotted variable stars. The most interesting objects among these are the binary blue straggler V20 with an asymmetric light curve, and the 8.1 d semidetached binary V24 located on the red giant branch of NGC 362, which is a Chandra X-ray source. We also provide substantial new data for 24 previously known variable stars.

Prognostic indicators of poor short-term outcome of physiotherapy intervention in women with stress urinary incontinence.

PubMed

Hendriks, Erik J M; Kessels, Alfons G H; de Vet, Henrica C W; Bernards, Arnold T M; de Bie, Rob A

2010-03-01

To identify prognostic indicators independently associated with poor outcome of physiotherapy intervention in women with primary or recurrent stress urinary incontinence (stress UI). A prospective cohort study was performed in physiotherapy practices in primary care to identify prognostic indicators 12 weeks after initiation of physiotherapy intervention. Patients were referred by general practitioners or urogynecologists. Risk factors for stress UI were examined as potential prognostic indicators of poor outcome. The primary outcomes were defined as poor outcome on the binary Leakage Severity scale (LS scale) and the binary global perceived effectiveness (GPE) score. Two hundred sixty-seven women, with a mean age of 47.7 (SD = 8.3), with stress UI for at least 6 months were included. At 12 weeks, 43% and 59% of the women were considered recovered on the binary LS scale and the binary GPE score, respectively. Prognostic indicators associated with poor outcome included 11 indicators based on the binary LS scale and 8 based on the binary GPE score. The prognostic indicators shared by both models show that poor recovery was associated with women with severe stress UI, POP-Q stage > II, poor outcome of physiotherapy intervention for a previous UI episode, prolonged second stage of labor, BMI > 30, high psychological distress, and poor physical health. This study provides robust evidence of clinically meaningful prognostic indicators of poor short-term outcome. These findings need to be confirmed by replication studies. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoban, Matty J.; Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Wolfson Building, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QD; Wallman, Joel J.

We consider general settings of Bell inequality experiments with many parties, where each party chooses from a finite number of measurement settings each with a finite number of outcomes. We investigate the constraints that Bell inequalities place upon the correlations possible in local hidden variable theories using a geometrical picture of correlations. We show that local hidden variable theories can be characterized in terms of limited computational expressiveness, which allows us to characterize families of Bell inequalities. The limited computational expressiveness for many settings (each with many outcomes) generalizes previous results about the many-party situation each with a choice ofmore » two possible measurements (each with two outcomes). Using this computational picture we present generalizations of the Popescu-Rohrlich nonlocal box for many parties and nonbinary inputs and outputs at each site. Finally, we comment on the effect of preprocessing on measurement data in our generalized setting and show that it becomes problematic outside of the binary setting, in that it allows local hidden variable theories to simulate maximally nonlocal correlations such as those of these generalized Popescu-Rohrlich nonlocal boxes.« less

Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

PubMed

Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

2017-12-01

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Ultraviolet observations of close-binary and pulsating nuclei of planetary nebulae; Winds and shells around low-mass supergiants; The close-binary nucleus of the planetary nebula HFG-1; A search for binary nuclei of planetary nebulae; UV monitoring of irregularly variable planetary nuclei; and The pulsating nucleus of the planetary nebula Lo 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bond, Howard E.

1992-01-01

A brief summary of the research highlights is presented. The topics covered include the following: binary nuclei of planetary nebulae; other variable planetary nuclei; low-mass supergiants; and other IUE-related research.

Predictors of the number of under-five malnourished children in Bangladesh: application of the generalized poisson regression model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malnutrition is one of the principal causes of child mortality in developing countries including Bangladesh. According to our knowledge, most of the available studies, that addressed the issue of malnutrition among under-five children, considered the categorical (dichotomous/polychotomous) outcome variables and applied logistic regression (binary/multinomial) to find their predictors. In this study malnutrition variable (i.e. outcome) is defined as the number of under-five malnourished children in a family, which is a non-negative count variable. The purposes of the study are (i) to demonstrate the applicability of the generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model as an alternative of other statistical methods and (ii) to find some predictors of this outcome variable. Methods The data is extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007. Briefly, this survey employs a nationally representative sample which is based on a two-stage stratified sample of households. A total of 4,460 under-five children is analysed using various statistical techniques namely Chi-square test and GPR model. Results The GPR model (as compared to the standard Poisson regression and negative Binomial regression) is found to be justified to study the above-mentioned outcome variable because of its under-dispersion (variance < mean) property. Our study also identify several significant predictors of the outcome variable namely mother’s education, father’s education, wealth index, sanitation status, source of drinking water, and total number of children ever born to a woman. Conclusions Consistencies of our findings in light of many other studies suggest that the GPR model is an ideal alternative of other statistical models to analyse the number of under-five malnourished children in a family. Strategies based on significant predictors may improve the nutritional status of children in Bangladesh. PMID:23297699

Big data and computational biology strategy for personalized prognosis.

PubMed

Ow, Ghim Siong; Tang, Zhiqun; Kuznetsov, Vladimir A

2016-06-28

The era of big data and precision medicine has led to accumulation of massive datasets of gene expression data and clinical information of patients. For a new patient, we propose that identification of a highly similar reference patient from an existing patient database via similarity matching of both clinical and expression data could be useful for predicting the prognostic risk or therapeutic efficacy.Here, we propose a novel methodology to predict disease/treatment outcome via analysis of the similarity between any pair of patients who are each characterized by a certain set of pre-defined biological variables (biomarkers or clinical features) represented initially as a prognostic binary variable vector (PBVV) and subsequently transformed to a prognostic signature vector (PSV). Our analyses revealed that Euclidean distance rather correlation distance measure was effective in defining an unbiased similarity measure calculated between two PSVs.We implemented our methods to high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC) based on a 36-mRNA predictor that was previously shown to stratify patients into 3 distinct prognostic subgroups. We studied and revealed that patient's age, when converted into binary variable, was positively correlated with the overall risk of succumbing to the disease. When applied to an independent testing dataset, the inclusion of age into the molecular predictor provided more robust personalized prognosis of overall survival correlated with the therapeutic response of HGSC and provided benefit for treatment targeting of the tumors in HGSC patients.Finally, our method can be generalized and implemented in many other diseases to accurately predict personalized patients' outcomes.

Five-Year Follow-Up of Army Personnel Potentially Exposed to Chemical Warfare Agents

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

the morbidity outcomes in the group of Army veterans possibly disorder ( PTSD ), and abnormal test results of unknown clinical exposed to low levels of...Gulf War (1991) was physical examinations) and hospitalizations overnight. The recoded from the DMDC database as a binary variable, i.e., ណ PTSD ... PTSD symptoms experienced in i.e., (1) Caucasian, (2) African American, or (3) Hispanic, Amer- the past 1 month. 17 A cutoff score of >50 points was

Shell-binary nanoparticle materials with variable electrical and electro-mechanical properties.

PubMed

Zhang, P; Bousack, H; Dai, Y; Offenhäusser, A; Mayer, D

2018-01-18

Nanoparticle (NP) materials with the capability to adjust their electrical and electro-mechanical properties facilitate applications in strain sensing technology. Traditional NP materials based on single component NPs lack a systematic and effective means of tuning their electrical and electro-mechanical properties. Here, we report on a new type of shell-binary NP material fabricated by self-assembly with either homogeneous or heterogeneous arrangements of NPs. Variable electrical and electro-mechanical properties were obtained for both materials. We show that the electrical and electro-mechanical properties of these shell-binary NP materials are highly tunable and strongly affected by the NP species as well as their corresponding volume fraction ratio. The conductivity and the gauge factor of these shell-binary NP materials can be altered by about five and two orders of magnitude, respectively. These shell-binary NP materials with different arrangements of NPs also demonstrate different volume fraction dependent electro-mechanical properties. The shell-binary NP materials with a heterogeneous arrangement of NPs exhibit a peaking of the sensitivity at medium mixing ratios, which arises from the aggregation induced local strain enhancement. Studies on the electron transport regimes and micro-morphologies of these shell-binary NP materials revealed the different mechanisms accounting for the variable electrical and electro-mechanical properties. A model based on effective medium theory is used to describe the electrical and electro-mechanical properties of such shell-binary nanomaterials and shows an excellent match with experiment data. These shell-binary NP materials possess great potential applications in high-performance strain sensing technology due to their variable electrical and electro-mechanical properties.

A New Binary Star System of EW Type in Draco: GSC 03905-01870

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barquin, S.

2018-05-01

Discovery of a new binary star system (GSC 03905-01870 = USNO-B1.0 1431-0327922 = UCAC4 716-059522) in the Draco constellation is presented. It was discovered during a search for previously unreported eclipsing binary stars through the ASAS-SN database. The shape of the light curve and its characteristics (period of 0.428988+-0.000001 d, amplitude of 0.34+-0.02 V Mag, primary minimum epoch HJD 2457994.2756+-0.0002) indicates that the new variable star is an eclipsing binary of W Ursae Majoris type. I registered this variable star in The International Variable Star Index (VSX), its AAVSO UID is 000-BMP-891.

Assessing factors related to waist circumference and obesity: application of a latent variable model.

PubMed

Dalvand, Sahar; Koohpayehzadeh, Jalil; Karimlou, Masoud; Asgari, Fereshteh; Rafei, Ali; Seifi, Behjat; Niksima, Seyed Hassan; Bakhshi, Enayatollah

2015-01-01

Because the use of BMI (Body Mass Index) alone as a measure of adiposity has been criticized, in the present study our aim was to fit a latent variable model to simultaneously examine the factors that affect waist circumference (continuous outcome) and obesity (binary outcome) among Iranian adults. Data included 18,990 Iranian individuals aged 20-65 years that are derived from the third National Survey of Noncommunicable Diseases Risk Factors in Iran. Using latent variable model, we estimated the relation of two correlated responses (waist circumference and obesity) with independent variables including age, gender, PR (Place of Residence), PA (physical activity), smoking status, SBP (Systolic Blood Pressure), DBP (Diastolic Blood Pressure), CHOL (cholesterol), FBG (Fasting Blood Glucose), diabetes, and FHD (family history of diabetes). All variables were related to both obesity and waist circumference (WC). Older age, female sex, being an urban resident, physical inactivity, nonsmoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglycemia, diabetes, and having family history of diabetes were significant risk factors that increased WC and obesity. Findings from this study of Iranian adult settings offer more insights into factors associated with high WC and high prevalence of obesity in this population.

No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis.

PubMed

van Smeden, Maarten; de Groot, Joris A H; Moons, Karel G M; Collins, Gary S; Altman, Douglas G; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Reitsma, Johannes B

2016-11-24

Ten events per variable (EPV) is a widely advocated minimal criterion for sample size considerations in logistic regression analysis. Of three previous simulation studies that examined this minimal EPV criterion only one supports the use of a minimum of 10 EPV. In this paper, we examine the reasons for substantial differences between these extensive simulation studies. The current study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate small sample bias, coverage of confidence intervals and mean square error of logit coefficients. Logistic regression models fitted by maximum likelihood and a modified estimation procedure, known as Firth's correction, are compared. The results show that besides EPV, the problems associated with low EPV depend on other factors such as the total sample size. It is also demonstrated that simulation results can be dominated by even a few simulated data sets for which the prediction of the outcome by the covariates is perfect ('separation'). We reveal that different approaches for identifying and handling separation leads to substantially different simulation results. We further show that Firth's correction can be used to improve the accuracy of regression coefficients and alleviate the problems associated with separation. The current evidence supporting EPV rules for binary logistic regression is weak. Given our findings, there is an urgent need for new research to provide guidance for supporting sample size considerations for binary logistic regression analysis.

Backyard Telescopes Watch an Expanding Binary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2018-01-01

What can you do with a team of people armed with backyard telescopes and a decade of patience? Test how binary star systems evolve under Einsteins general theory of relativity!Unusual VariablesCataclysmic variables irregularly brightening binary stars consisting of an accreting white dwarf and a donor star are a favorite target among amateur astronomers: theyre detectable even with small telescopes, and theres a lot we can learn about stellar astrophysics by observing them, if were patient.Diagram of a cataclysmic variable. In an AM CVn, the donor is most likely a white dwarf as well, or a low-mass helium star. [Philip D. Hall]Among the large family of cataclysmic variables is one unusual type: the extremely short-period AM Canum Venaticorum (AM CVn) stars. These rare variables (only 40 are known) are unique in having spectra dominated by helium, suggesting that they contain little or no hydrogen. Because of this, scientists have speculated that the donor stars in these systems are either white dwarfs themselves or very low-mass helium stars.Why study AM CVn stars? Because their unusual configuration allows us to predict the behavior of their orbital evolution. According to the general theory of relativity, the two components of an AM CVn will spiral closer and closer as the system loses angular momentum to gravitational-wave emission. Eventually they will get so close that the low-mass companion star overflows its Roche lobe, beginning mass transfer to the white dwarf. At this point, the orbital evolution will reverse and the binary orbit will expand, increasing its period.CBA member Enrique de Miguel, lead author on the study, with his backyard telescope in Huelva, Spain. [Enrique de Miguel]Backyard Astronomy Hard at WorkMeasuring the evolution of an AM CVns orbital period is the best way to confirm this model, but this is no simple task! To observe this evolution, we first need a system with a period that can be very precisely measured best achieved with an eclipsing binary system. Then the system must be observed regularly over a very long period of time.Though such a feat is challenging, a team of astronomers has done precisely this. The Center for Backyard Astrophysics (CBA) a group of primarily amateur astronomers located around the world has collectively observed the AM CVn star system ES Ceti using seven different telescopes over more than a decade. In total, they now have measurements of ES Cetis period spanning 20012017. Now, in a publication led by Enrique de Miguel (CBA-Huelva and University of Huelva, Spain), the group details the outcomes of their patience.Testing the ModelThis OC diagram of the timings of minimum light relative to a test ephemeris demonstrates that ES Cetis orbital period is steadily increasing over time. [de Miguel et al. 2017]De Miguel and collaborators find that ES Cetis 10.3-minute orbital period has indeed increased over time as predicted by the model at a relatively rapid rate: the timescale for change, described by P/(dP/dt), is 10 million years. This outcome is consistent with the hypothesis that the mass transfer and binary evolution of such systems is driven by gravitational radiation marking one of the first such demonstrations with a cataclysmic variable.Whats next for ES Ceti? Systems such as this one will make for interesting targets for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA; planned for a 2034 launch). The gravitational radiation emitted by AM CVns like ES Ceti should be strong enough and in the right frequency range to be detected by LISA, providing another test of our models for how these star systems evolve.CitationEnrique de Miguel et al 2018 ApJ 852 19. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aa9ed6

Effect of feedback mode and task difficulty on quality of timing decisions in a zero-sum game.

PubMed

Tikuisis, Peter; Vartanian, Oshin; Mandel, David R

2014-09-01

The objective was to investigate the interaction between the mode of performance outcome feedback and task difficulty on timing decisions (i.e., when to act). Feedback is widely acknowledged to affect task performance. However, the extent to which feedback display mode and its impact on timing decisions is moderated by task difficulty remains largely unknown. Participants repeatedly engaged a zero-sum game involving silent duels with a computerized opponent and were given visual performance feedback after each engagement. They were sequentially tested on three different levels of task difficulty (low, intermediate, and high) in counterbalanced order. Half received relatively simple "inside view" binary outcome feedback, and the other half received complex "outside view" hit rate probability feedback. The key dependent variables were response time (i.e., time taken to make a decision) and survival outcome. When task difficulty was low to moderate, participants were more likely to learn and perform better from hit rate probability feedback than binary outcome feedback. However, better performance with hit rate feedback exacted a higher cognitive cost manifested by higher decision response time. The beneficial effect of hit rate probability feedback on timing decisions is partially moderated by task difficulty. Performance feedback mode should be judiciously chosen in relation to task difficulty for optimal performance in tasks involving timing decisions.

No difference in variability of unique hue selections and binary hue selections.

PubMed

Bosten, J M; Lawrance-Owen, A J

2014-04-01

If unique hues have special status in phenomenological experience as perceptually pure, it seems reasonable to assume that they are represented more precisely by the visual system than are other colors. Following the method of Malkoc et al. (J. Opt. Soc. Am. A22, 2154 [2005]), we gathered unique and binary hue selections from 50 subjects. For these subjects we repeated the measurements in two separate sessions, allowing us to measure test-retest reliabilities (0.52≤ρ≤0.78; p≪0.01). We quantified the within-individual variability for selections of each hue. Adjusting for the differences in variability intrinsic to different regions of chromaticity space, we compared the within-individual variability for unique hues to that for binary hues. Surprisingly, we found that selections of unique hues did not show consistently lower variability than selections of binary hues. We repeated hue measurements in a single session for an independent sample of 58 subjects, using a different relative scaling of the cardinal axes of MacLeod-Boynton chromaticity space. Again, we found no consistent difference in adjusted within-individual variability for selections of unique and binary hues. Our finding does not depend on the particular scaling chosen for the Y axis of MacLeod-Boynton chromaticity space.

A stratification approach using logit-based models for confounder adjustment in the study of continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Tan, Chuen Seng; Støer, Nathalie C; Chen, Ying; Andersson, Marielle; Ning, Yilin; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Khoo, Eric Yin Hao; Tai, E-Shyong; Kao, Shih Ling; Reilly, Marie

2017-01-01

The control of confounding is an area of extensive epidemiological research, especially in the field of causal inference for observational studies. Matched cohort and case-control study designs are commonly implemented to control for confounding effects without specifying the functional form of the relationship between the outcome and confounders. This paper extends the commonly used regression models in matched designs for binary and survival outcomes (i.e. conditional logistic and stratified Cox proportional hazards) to studies of continuous outcomes through a novel interpretation and application of logit-based regression models from the econometrics and marketing research literature. We compare the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators using simulated data and propose a heuristic argument for obtaining the residuals for model diagnostics. We illustrate our proposed approach with two real data applications. Our simulation studies demonstrate that our stratification approach is robust to model misspecification and that the distribution of the estimated residuals provides a useful diagnostic when the strata are of moderate size. In our applications to real data, we demonstrate that parity and menopausal status are associated with percent mammographic density, and that the mean level and variability of inpatient blood glucose readings vary between medical and surgical wards within a national tertiary hospital. Our work highlights how the same class of regression models, available in most statistical software, can be used to adjust for confounding in the study of binary, time-to-event and continuous outcomes.

On the period determination of ASAS eclipsing binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayangsari, L.; Priyatikanto, R.; Putra, M.

2014-03-01

Variable stars, or particularly eclipsing binaries, are very essential astronomical occurrence. Surveys are the backbone of astronomy, and many discoveries of variable stars are the results of surveys. All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS) is one of the observing projects whose ultimate goal is photometric monitoring of variable stars. Since its first light in 1997, ASAS has collected 50,099 variable stars, with 11,076 eclipsing binaries among them. In the present work we focus on the period determination of the eclipsing binaries. Since the number of data points in each ASAS eclipsing binary light curve is sparse, period determination of any system is a not straightforward process. For 30 samples of such systems we compare the implementation of Lomb-Scargle algorithm which is an Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) basis and Phase Dispersion Minimization (PDM) method which is non-FFT basis to determine their period. It is demonstrated that PDM gives better performance at handling eclipsing detached (ED) systems whose variability are non-sinusoidal. More over, using semi-automatic recipes, we get better period solution and satisfactorily improve 53% of the selected object's light curves, but failed against another 7% of selected objects. In addition, we also highlight 4 interesting objects for further investigation.

An adaptable binary entropy coder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiely, A.; Klimesh, M.

2001-01-01

We present a novel entropy coding technique which is based on recursive interleaving of variable-to-variable length binary source codes. We discuss code design and performance estimation methods, as well as practical encoding and decoding algorithms.

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

PubMed

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Statistical Model for Misreported Binary Outcomes in Clustered RCTs of Education Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schochet, Peter Z.

2013-01-01

In education randomized control trials (RCTs), the misreporting of student outcome data could lead to biased estimates of average treatment effects (ATEs) and their standard errors. This article discusses a statistical model that adjusts for misreported binary outcomes for two-level, school-based RCTs, where it is assumed that misreporting could…

Binaries in globular clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hut, Piet; Mcmillan, Steve; Goodman, Jeremy; Mateo, Mario; Phinney, E. S.; Pryor, Carlton; Richer, Harvey B.; Verbunt, Frank; Weinberg, Martin

1992-01-01

Recent observations have shown that globular clusters contain a substantial number of binaries most of which are believed to be primordial. We discuss different successful optical search techniques, based on radial-velocity variables, photometric variables, and the positions of stars in the color-magnitude diagram. In addition, we review searches in other wavelengths, which have turned up low-mass X-ray binaries and more recently a variety of radio pulsars. On the theoretical side, we give an overview of the different physical mechanisms through which individual binaries evolve. We discuss the various simulation techniques which recently have been employed to study the effects of a primordial binary population, and the fascinating interplay between stellar evolution and stellar dynamics which drives globular-cluster evolution.

Eclipse timings of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676: Statistical arguments against orbital period changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hertz, Paul; Wood, Kent S.; Cominsky, Lynn

1995-01-01

EXO 0748-676, an eclipsing low-mass X-ray binary, is one of only about four or five low-mass X-ray binaries for which orbital period evolution has been reported. We observed a single eclipse egress with ROSAT . The time of this egress is consistent with the apparent increase in P(sub orb) previously reported on the basis of EXOSAT and Ginga observations. Standard analysis, in which O-C (observed minus calculated) timing residuals are examined for deviations from a constant period, implicitly assume that the only uncertainty in each residual is measurement error and that these errors are independent. We argue that the variable eclipse durations and profiles observed in EXO 0748-676 imply that there is an additional source of uncertainty in timing measurements, that this uncertainty is intrinsic to the binary system, and that it is correlated from observation to observation with a variance which increases as a function of the number of binary cycles between observations. This intrinsic variability gives rise to spurious trends in O-C residuals which are misinterpreted as changes in the orbital period. We describe several statistics tests which can be used to test for the presence of intrinsic variability. We apply those statistical tests which are suitable to the EXO 0748-676 observations. The apparent changes in the orbital period of EXO 0748-676 can be completely accounted for by intrinsic variability with an rms variability of approximately 0.35 s per orbital cycle. The variability appears to be correlated from cycle-to-cycle on timescales of less than 1 yr. We suggest that the intrinsic variability is related to slow changes in either the source's X-ray luminosity or the structure of the companion star's atmosphere. We note that several other X-ray binaries and cataclysmic variables have previously reported orbital period changes which may also be due to intrinsic variability rather than orbital period evolution.

Variability of the symbiotic X-ray binary GX 1+4. Enhanced activity near periastron passage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iłkiewicz, Krystian; Mikołajewska, Joanna; Monard, Berto

2017-05-01

Context. GX 1+4 belongs to a rare class of X-ray binaries with red giant donors, symbiotic X-ray binaries. It has a history of complicated variability on multiple timescales in the optical light and X-rays. The nature of this variability remains poorly understood. Aims: We aim to study variability of GX 1+4 on long timescale in X-ray and optical bands. Methods: We took X-ray observations from the INTEGRAL Soft Gamma-Ray Imager and RXTE All Sky Monitor. Optical observations were made with the INTEGRAL Optical Monitoring Camera. Results: The variability of GX 1+4 both in optical light and hard X-ray emission (>17 keV) is dominated by 50-70 d quasi-periodic changes. The amplitude of this variability is highest during the periastron passage, while during the potential neutron star eclipse the system is always at minimum. This confirms the 1161 d orbital period that has had been proposed for the system based on radial velocity curve. Neither the quasi-periodic variability or the orbital period are detected in soft X-ray emission (1.3-12.2 keV), where the binary shows no apparent periodicity.

EVERY INTERACTING DOUBLE WHITE DWARF BINARY MAY MERGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Ken J.

2015-05-20

Interacting double white dwarf (WD) binaries can give rise to a wide variety of astrophysical outcomes ranging from faint thermonuclear and Type Ia supernovae to the formation of neutron stars and stably accreting AM Canum Venaticorum systems. One key factor affecting the final outcome is whether mass transfer remains dynamically stable or instead diverges, leading to the tidal disruption of the donor and the merger of the binary. It is typically thought that for low ratios of the donor mass to the accretor mass, mass transfer remains stable, especially if accretion occurs via a disk. In this Letter, we examinemore » low mass ratio double WD binaries and find that the initial phase of hydrogen-rich mass transfer leads to a classical nova-like outburst on the accretor. Dynamical friction within the expanding nova shell shrinks the orbit and causes the mass transfer rate to increase dramatically above the accretor's Eddington limit, possibly resulting in a binary merger. If the binary survives the first hydrogen-rich nova outbursts, dynamical friction within the subsequent helium-powered nova shells pushes the system even more strongly toward merger. While further calculations are necessary to confirm this outcome for the entire range of binaries previously thought to be dynamically stable, it appears likely that most, if not all, interacting double WD binaries will merge during the course of their evolution.« less

Drawing Nomograms with R: applications to categorical outcome and survival data.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng; Kattan, Michael W

2017-05-01

Outcome prediction is a major task in clinical medicine. The standard approach to this work is to collect a variety of predictors and build a model of appropriate type. The model is a mathematical equation that connects the outcome of interest with the predictors. A new patient with given clinical characteristics can be predicted for outcome with this model. However, the equation describing the relationship between predictors and outcome is often complex and the computation requires software for practical use. There is another method called nomogram which is a graphical calculating device allowing an approximate graphical computation of a mathematical function. In this article, we describe how to draw nomograms for various outcomes with nomogram() function. Binary outcome is fit by logistic regression model and the outcome of interest is the probability of the event of interest. Ordinal outcome variable is also discussed. Survival analysis can be fit with parametric model to fully describe the distributions of survival time. Statistics such as the median survival time, survival probability up to a specific time point are taken as the outcome of interest.

Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

PubMed

Denrell, Jerker C

2015-07-01

Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Effects of fictive reward on rat's choice behavior

PubMed Central

Kim, Ko-Un; Huh, Namjung; Jang, Yunsil; Lee, Daeyeol; Jung, Min Whan

2015-01-01

Choices of humans and non-human primates are influenced by both actually experienced and fictive outcomes. To test whether this is also the case in rodents, we examined rat's choice behavior in a binary choice task in which variable magnitudes of actual and fictive rewards were delivered. We found that the animal's choice was significantly influenced by the magnitudes of both actual and fictive rewards in the previous trial. A model-based analysis revealed, however, that the effect of fictive reward was more transient and influenced mostly the choice in the next trial, whereas the effect of actual reward was more sustained, consistent with incremental learning of action values. Our results suggest that the capacity to modify future choices based on fictive outcomes might be shared by many different animal species, but fictive outcomes are less effective than actual outcomes in the incremental value learning system. PMID:25623929

Determination of riverbank erosion probability using Locally Weighted Logistic Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioannidou, Elena; Flori, Aikaterini; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Giannakis, Georgios; Vozinaki, Anthi Eirini K.; Karatzas, George P.; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Riverbank erosion is a natural geomorphologic process that affects the fluvial environment. The most important issue concerning riverbank erosion is the identification of the vulnerable locations. An alternative to the usual hydrodynamic models to predict vulnerable locations is to quantify the probability of erosion occurrence. This can be achieved by identifying the underlying relations between riverbank erosion and the geomorphological or hydrological variables that prevent or stimulate erosion. Thus, riverbank erosion can be determined by a regression model using independent variables that are considered to affect the erosion process. The impact of such variables may vary spatially, therefore, a non-stationary regression model is preferred instead of a stationary equivalent. Locally Weighted Regression (LWR) is proposed as a suitable choice. This method can be extended to predict the binary presence or absence of erosion based on a series of independent local variables by using the logistic regression model. It is referred to as Locally Weighted Logistic Regression (LWLR). Logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used for predicting the outcome of a categorical dependent variable (e.g. binary response) based on one or more predictor variables. The method can be combined with LWR to assign weights to local independent variables of the dependent one. LWR allows model parameters to vary over space in order to reflect spatial heterogeneity. The probabilities of the possible outcomes are modelled as a function of the independent variables using a logistic function. Logistic regression measures the relationship between a categorical dependent variable and, usually, one or several continuous independent variables by converting the dependent variable to probability scores. Then, a logistic regression is formed, which predicts success or failure of a given binary variable (e.g. erosion presence or absence) for any value of the independent variables. The erosion occurrence probability can be calculated in conjunction with the model deviance regarding the independent variables tested. The most straightforward measure for goodness of fit is the G statistic. It is a simple and effective way to study and evaluate the Logistic Regression model efficiency and the reliability of each independent variable. The developed statistical model is applied to the Koiliaris River Basin on the island of Crete, Greece. Two datasets of river bank slope, river cross-section width and indications of erosion were available for the analysis (12 and 8 locations). Two different types of spatial dependence functions, exponential and tricubic, were examined to determine the local spatial dependence of the independent variables at the measurement locations. The results show a significant improvement when the tricubic function is applied as the erosion probability is accurately predicted at all eight validation locations. Results for the model deviance show that cross-section width is more important than bank slope in the estimation of erosion probability along the Koiliaris riverbanks. The proposed statistical model is a useful tool that quantifies the erosion probability along the riverbanks and can be used to assist managing erosion and flooding events. Acknowledgements This work is part of an on-going THALES project (CYBERSENSORS - High Frequency Monitoring System for Integrated Water Resources Management of Rivers). The project has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: THALES. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

2SLS versus 2SRI: Appropriate methods for rare outcomes and/or rare exposures.

PubMed

Basu, Anirban; Coe, Norma B; Chapman, Cole G

2018-06-01

This study used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the ability of the two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimators with varying forms of residuals to estimate the local average and population average treatment effect parameters in models with binary outcome, endogenous binary treatment, and single binary instrument. The rarity of the outcome and the treatment was varied across simulation scenarios. Results showed that 2SLS generated consistent estimates of the local average treatment effects (LATE) and biased estimates of the average treatment effects (ATE) across all scenarios. 2SRI approaches, in general, produced biased estimates of both LATE and ATE under all scenarios. 2SRI using generalized residuals minimized the bias in ATE estimates. Use of 2SLS and 2SRI is illustrated in an empirical application estimating the effects of long-term care insurance on a variety of binary health care utilization outcomes among the near-elderly using the Health and Retirement Study. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Algorithmic information theory and the hidden variable question

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuchs, Christopher

1992-01-01

The admissibility of certain nonlocal hidden-variable theories are explained via information theory. Consider a pair of Stern-Gerlach devices with fixed nonparallel orientations that periodically perform spin measurements on identically prepared pairs of electrons in the singlet spin state. Suppose the outcomes are recorded as binary strings l and r (with l sub n and r sub n denoting their n-length prefixes). The hidden-variable theories considered here require that there exists a recursive function which may be used to transform l sub n into r sub n for any n. This note demonstrates that such a theory cannot reproduce all the statistical predictions of quantum mechanics. Specifically, consider an ensemble of outcome pairs (l,r). From the associated probability measure, the Shannon entropies H sub n and H bar sub n for strings l sub n and pairs (l sub n, r sub n) may be formed. It is shown that such a theory requires that the absolute value of H bar sub n - H sub n be bounded - contrasting the quantum mechanical prediction that it grow with n.

A general equation to obtain multiple cut-off scores on a test from multinomial logistic regression.

PubMed

Bersabé, Rosa; Rivas, Teresa

2010-05-01

The authors derive a general equation to compute multiple cut-offs on a total test score in order to classify individuals into more than two ordinal categories. The equation is derived from the multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model, which is an extension of the binary logistic regression (BLR) model to accommodate polytomous outcome variables. From this analytical procedure, cut-off scores are established at the test score (the predictor variable) at which an individual is as likely to be in category j as in category j+1 of an ordinal outcome variable. The application of the complete procedure is illustrated by an example with data from an actual study on eating disorders. In this example, two cut-off scores on the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26) scores are obtained in order to classify individuals into three ordinal categories: asymptomatic, symptomatic and eating disorder. Diagnoses were made from the responses to a self-report (Q-EDD) that operationalises DSM-IV criteria for eating disorders. Alternatives to the MLR model to set multiple cut-off scores are discussed.

Leveraging prognostic baseline variables to gain precision in randomized trials

PubMed Central

Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Rosenblum, Michael

2015-01-01

We focus on estimating the average treatment effect in a randomized trial. If baseline variables are correlated with the outcome, then appropriately adjusting for these variables can improve precision. An example is the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) estimator, which applies when the outcome is continuous, the quantity of interest is the difference in mean outcomes comparing treatment versus control, and a linear model with only main effects is used. ANCOVA is guaranteed to be at least as precise as the standard unadjusted estimator, asymptotically, under no parametric model assumptions and also is locally semiparametric efficient. Recently, several estimators have been developed that extend these desirable properties to more general settings that allow any real-valued outcome (e.g., binary or count), contrasts other than the difference in mean outcomes (such as the relative risk), and estimators based on a large class of generalized linear models (including logistic regression). To the best of our knowledge, we give the first simulation study in the context of randomized trials that compares these estimators. Furthermore, our simulations are not based on parametric models; instead, our simulations are based on resampling data from completed randomized trials in stroke and HIV in order to assess estimator performance in realistic scenarios. We provide practical guidance on when these estimators are likely to provide substantial precision gains and describe a quick assessment method that allows clinical investigators to determine whether these estimators could be useful in their specific trial contexts. PMID:25872751

Investigación observacional sobre el papel de las estrellas binarias en la ecología de cúmulos estelares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, J. F.; Levato, H.; Grosso, M.

We present preliminary results of a long-term project devoted to the observational study of the binary star population in open clusters and its connection with the dynamical and evolutionary properties of the clusters. We report the discovery of 17 double-lined spectroscopic binaries, 30 radial velocity variables and about 30 suspected variables. In the 17 clusters of our sample the binary frequency ranges between 20 and 40 %, and reaches typically 60 % if all suspected binaries are included. We study the spatial distribution of the binary stars with respect to the cluster center and we discuss the statistical correlation of the mass-ratio distribution with the cluster age.

VX Her: Eclipsing Binary System or Single Variable Star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, Kathleen; Castelaz, Michael; Henson, Gary; Boghozian, Andrew

2015-01-01

VX Her is a pulsating variable star with a period of .4556504 days. It is believed to be part of an eclipsing binary system (Fitch et al. 1966). This hypothesis originated from Fitch seeing VX Her's minimum point on its light curve reaching a 0.7 magnitude fainter than normal and remaining that way for nearly two hours. If VX Her were indeed a binary system, I would expect to see similar results with a fainter minimum and a broader, more horizontal dip. Having reduced and analyzed images from the Southeastern Association for Research in Astronomy Observatory in Chile and Kitt Peak, as well as images from a 0.15m reflector at East Tennessee State University, I found that VX Her has the standard light curve of the prototype variable star, RR Lyrae. Using photometry, I found no differing features in its light curve to suggest that it is indeed a binary system. However, more observations are needed in case VX Her is a wide binary.

Jet precession in binary black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abraham, Zulema

2018-06-01

Supermassive binary black holes are thought to lie at the centres of merging galaxies. The blazar OJ 287 is the poster child of such systems, showing strong and periodic variability across the electromagnetic spectrum. A new study questions the physical origin of this variability.

Jet precession in binary black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abraham, Zulema

2018-05-01

Supermassive binary black holes are thought to lie at the centres of merging galaxies. The blazar OJ 287 is the poster child of such systems, showing strong and periodic variability across the electromagnetic spectrum. A new study questions the physical origin of this variability.

Primordial main equence binary stars in the globular cluster M71

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Lin; Mateo, Mario

1994-01-01

We report the identification of five short-period variables near the center of the metal-rich globular cluster M71. Our observations consist of multiepoch VI charge coupled device (CCD) images centered on the cluster and covering a 6.3 min x 6.3 min field. Four of these variables are contact eclipsing binaries with periods between 0.35 and 0.41 days; one is a detached or semidetached eclipsing binary with a period of 0.56 days. Two of the variables were first identified as possible eclipsing binaries in an earlier survey by Hodder et al. (1992). We have used a variety of arguments to conclude that all five binary stars are probable members of M71, a result that is consistent with the low number (0.15) of short-period field binaries expected along this line of sight. Based on a simple model of how contact binaries evolve from initially detached binaries, we have determined a lower limit of 1.3% on the frequency of primordial binaries in M71 with initial orbital periods in the range 2.5 - 5 days. This implies that the overall primordial binary frequency, f, is 22(sup +26)(sub -12)% assuming df/d log P = const ( the 'flat' distribution), or f = 57(sup +15)(sub -8)% for df/d log P = 0.032 log P + const as observed for G-dwarf binaries in the solar neighborhood (the 'sloped' distribution). Both estimates of f correspond to binaries with initial periods shorter than 800 yr since any longer-period binaries would have been disrupted over the lifetime of the cluster. Our short-period binary frequency is in excellent agreement with the observed frequency of red-giant binaries observed in globulars if we adopt the flat distribution. For the sloped distribution, our results significantly overestimate the number of red-giant binaries. All of the short-period M71 binaries lie within 1 mag of the luminosity of the cluster turnoff in the color-magnitude diagram despite the fact we should have easily detected similar eclipsing binaries 2 - 2.5 mag fainter than this. We discuss the implications of this on our estimates of the binary frequency in M71 and on the formation of blue stragglers.

A study of binary Kuiper belt objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, Susan Diane

2006-06-01

About 10 5 bodies larger than 100km in diameter (Jewitt 1998) reside in the Kuiper Belt, beyond the orbit of Neptune. Since 1992 observational surveys have discovered over one thousand of these objects, believed to be fossil remnants of events that occurred nearly 4.5 billion years ago. Sixteen of these objects are currently known to be binaries, and many more are expected to be discovered. As part of the Deep Ecliptic Survey (DES) I have helped catalog nearly one third of the known Kuiper Belt object (KBO) population, and used that database for further physical studies. Recovery observations for dynamical studies of newly discovered objects with the Magellan telescopes and a high resolution imager, MagIC, revealed three binaries, 88611 (2001QT297), 2003QY90, and 2005EO304. One binary was found in the discovery observations, 2003UN284. Lightcurve measurements of these, and other non-binary KBOs, were obtained to look for unique rotational characteristics. Eleven of thirty-three objects, excluding the binaries, were found to have measurable variability. One of these objects, 2002GW32 has a particularly large amplitude (> 1 magnitude) of variability, and 2002GP32 has a relatively short (~3.3 hours, single-peaked) lightcurve. Among the binary population all the observed objects showed some level of variation. The secondary of 88611 was fit with a single-peaked period of 5.5±0.02 hours while the primary component appears to be non-variable above the measurement errors (0.05 magnitudes). Neither component appears to be color variable. The components of 2003QY90 are both highly variable yielding single- peaked rotation periods of 3.5±1.1 and 7.2±2.9 hours with amplitudes of 0.34±0.06 and 0.90±0.18 magnitudes, respectively. The rotation periods are comparable to those of other non-binary KBOs although distinct from that of an identified contact binary. Orbits and partial orbits for Kuiper belt binaries (KBBs) show a wide range of eccentricities, and an increasing number of binaries with decreasing binary semi-major axis. These characteristics exclude the formation models proposed by Funato et al. (2003) and Weidenschilling (2002), respectively. Conversely, the formation models of Astakhov et al. (2005) and Goldreich et al. (2002) appear to describe the observations, at least in part. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.)

Variable Star and Exoplanet Section of the Czech Astronomical Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brát, L.; Zejda, M.

2010-12-01

We present activities of Czech variable star observers organized in the Variable Star and Exoplanet Section of the Czech Astronomical Society. We work in four observing projects: B.R.N.O. - eclipsing binaries, MEDUZA - intrinsic variable stars, TRESCA - transiting exoplanets and candidates, HERO - objects of high energy astrophysics. Detailed information together with O-C gate (database of eclipsing binaries minima timings) and OEJV (Open European Journal on Variable stars) are available on our internet portal http://var.astro.cz.

BINARY CENTRAL STARS OF PLANETARY NEBULAE DISCOVERED THROUGH PHOTOMETRIC VARIABILITY. IV. THE CENTRAL STARS OF HaTr 4 AND Hf 2-2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hillwig, Todd C.; Schaub, S. C.; Bond, Howard E.

We explore the photometrically variable central stars of the planetary nebulae HaTr 4 and Hf 2-2. Both have been classified as close binary star systems previously based on their light curves alone. Here, we present additional arguments and data confirming the identification of both as close binaries with an irradiated cool companion to the hot central star. We include updated light curves, orbital periods, and preliminary binary modeling for both systems. We also identify for the first time the central star of HaTr 4 as an eclipsing binary. Neither system has been well studied in the past, but we utilizemore » the small amount of existing data to limit possible binary parameters, including system inclination. These parameters are then compared to nebular parameters to further our knowledge of the relationship between binary central stars of planetary nebulae and nebular shaping and ejection.« less

Multivariate Models for Normal and Binary Responses in Intervention Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pituch, Keenan A.; Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Chang, Wanchen

2016-01-01

Use of multivariate analysis (e.g., multivariate analysis of variance) is common when normally distributed outcomes are collected in intervention research. However, when mixed responses--a set of normal and binary outcomes--are collected, standard multivariate analyses are no longer suitable. While mixed responses are often obtained in…

Eclipsing binary stars in the era of massive surveys First results and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papageorgiou, Athanasios; Catelan, Márcio; Ramos, Rodrigo Contreras; Drake, Andrew J.

2017-09-01

Our thinking about eclipsing binary stars has undergone a tremendous change in the last decade. Eclipsing binary stars are one of nature's best laboratories for determining the fundamental physical properties of stars and thus for testing the predictions of theoretical models. Some of the largest ongoing variable star surveys include the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) and the VISTA Variables in the Vía Láctea survey (VVV). They both contain a large amount of photometric data and plenty of information about eclipsing binaries that wait to be extracted and exploited. Here we briefly describe our efforts in this direction.

The Cluster AgeS Experiment (CASE). Variable Stars in the Field of the Globular Cluster M22

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozyczka, M.; Thompson, I. B.; Pych, W.; Narloch, W.; Poleski, R.; Schwarzenberg-Czerny, A.

2017-09-01

The field of the globular cluster M22 (NGC 6656) was monitored between 2000 and 2008 in a search for variable stars. BV light curves were obtained for 359 periodic, likely periodic, and long-term variables, 238 of which are new detections. 39 newly detected variables, and 63 previously known ones are members or likely members of the cluster, including 20 SX Phe, 10 RRab and 16 RRc type pulsators, one BL Her type pulsator, 21 contact binaries, and 9 detached or semi-detached eclipsing binaries. The most interesting among the identified objects are V112 - a bright multimode SX Phe pulsator, V125 - a β Lyr type binary on the blue horizontal branch, V129 - a blue/yellow straggler with a W UMa-like light curve, located halfway between the extreme horizontal branch and red giant branch, and V134 - an extreme horizontal branch object with P=2.33 d and a nearly sinusoidal light curve. All four of them are proper motion members of the cluster. Among nonmembers, a P=2.83 d detached eclipsing binary hosting a δ Sct type pulsator was found, and a peculiar P=0.93 d binary with ellipsoidal modulation and narrow minimum in the middle of one of the descending shoulders of the sinusoid. We also collected substantial new data for previously known variables. In particular we revise the statistics of the occurrence of the Blazhko effect in RR Lyr type variables of M22.

A Coordinated X-Ray and Optical Campaign of the Nearby Massive Binary Sigma Orionis Aa. II; X-Ray Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, J.; Huenemoerder, D. P.; Corcoran, M. F.; Waldron, W.; Naze, Y; Pollock, A. M. T.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Lauer, J.; Shenar, T.; Russell, C. M. P.;

Variable Stars Observed in the Galactic Disk by AST3-1 from Dome A, Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lingzhi; Ma, Bin; Hu, Yi

AST3-1 is the second-generation wide-field optical photometric telescope dedicated to time-domain astronomy at Dome A, Antarctica. Here, we present the results of an i -band images survey from AST3-1 toward one Galactic disk field. Based on time-series photometry of 92,583 stars, 560 variable stars were detected with i magnitude ≤16.5 mag during eight days of observations; 339 of these are previously unknown variables. We tentatively classify the 560 variables as 285 eclipsing binaries (EW, EB, and EA), 27 pulsating variable stars ( δ Scuti, γ Doradus, δ Cephei variable, and RR Lyrae stars), and 248 other types of variables (unclassifiedmore » periodic, multiperiodic, and aperiodic variable stars). Of the eclipsing binaries, 34 show O’Connell effects. One of the aperiodic variables shows a plateau light curve and another variable shows a secondary maximum after peak brightness. We also detected a complex binary system with an RS CVn-like light-curve morphology; this object is being followed-up spectroscopically using the Gemini South telescope.« less

The occurrence of binary evolution pulsators in classical instability strip of RR Lyrae and Cepheid variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karczmarek, P.; Wiktorowicz, G.; Iłkiewicz, K.; Smolec, R.; Stępień, K.; Pietrzyński, G.; Gieren, W.; Belczynski, K.

2017-04-01

Single star evolution does not allow extremely low-mass stars to cross the classical instability strip (IS) during the Hubble time. However, within binary evolution framework low-mass stars can appear inside the IS once the mass transfer (MT) is taken into account. Triggered by a discovery of low-mass (0.26 M⊙) RR Lyrae-like variable in a binary system, OGLE-BLG-RRLYR-02792, we investigate the occurrence of similar binary components in the IS, which set up a new class of low-mass pulsators. They are referred to as binary evolution pulsators (BEPs) to underline the interaction between components, which is crucial for substantial mass-loss prior to the IS entrance. We simulate a population of 500 000 metal-rich binaries and report that 28 143 components of binary systems experience severe MT (losing up to 90 per cent of mass), followed by at least one IS crossing in luminosity range of RR Lyrae (RRL) or Cepheid variables. A half of these systems enter the IS before the age of 4 Gyr. BEPs display a variety of physical and orbital parameters, with the most important being the BEP mass in range 0.2-0.8 M⊙, and the orbital period in range 10-2 500 d. Based on the light curve only, BEPs can be misclassified as genuine classical pulsators, and as such they would contaminate genuine RRL and classical Cepheid variables at levels of 0.8 and 5 per cent, respectively. We state that the majority of BEPs will remain undetected and we discuss relevant detection limitations.

Flexible link functions in nonparametric binary regression with Gaussian process priors.

PubMed

Li, Dan; Wang, Xia; Lin, Lizhen; Dey, Dipak K

2016-09-01

In many scientific fields, it is a common practice to collect a sequence of 0-1 binary responses from a subject across time, space, or a collection of covariates. Researchers are interested in finding out how the expected binary outcome is related to covariates, and aim at better prediction in the future 0-1 outcomes. Gaussian processes have been widely used to model nonlinear systems; in particular to model the latent structure in a binary regression model allowing nonlinear functional relationship between covariates and the expectation of binary outcomes. A critical issue in modeling binary response data is the appropriate choice of link functions. Commonly adopted link functions such as probit or logit links have fixed skewness and lack the flexibility to allow the data to determine the degree of the skewness. To address this limitation, we propose a flexible binary regression model which combines a generalized extreme value link function with a Gaussian process prior on the latent structure. Bayesian computation is employed in model estimation. Posterior consistency of the resulting posterior distribution is demonstrated. The flexibility and gains of the proposed model are illustrated through detailed simulation studies and two real data examples. Empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms a set of alternative models, which only have either a Gaussian process prior on the latent regression function or a Dirichlet prior on the link function. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Flexible Link Functions in Nonparametric Binary Regression with Gaussian Process Priors

PubMed Central

Li, Dan; Lin, Lizhen; Dey, Dipak K.

2015-01-01

Summary In many scientific fields, it is a common practice to collect a sequence of 0-1 binary responses from a subject across time, space, or a collection of covariates. Researchers are interested in finding out how the expected binary outcome is related to covariates, and aim at better prediction in the future 0-1 outcomes. Gaussian processes have been widely used to model nonlinear systems; in particular to model the latent structure in a binary regression model allowing nonlinear functional relationship between covariates and the expectation of binary outcomes. A critical issue in modeling binary response data is the appropriate choice of link functions. Commonly adopted link functions such as probit or logit links have fixed skewness and lack the flexibility to allow the data to determine the degree of the skewness. To address this limitation, we propose a flexible binary regression model which combines a generalized extreme value link function with a Gaussian process prior on the latent structure. Bayesian computation is employed in model estimation. Posterior consistency of the resulting posterior distribution is demonstrated. The flexibility and gains of the proposed model are illustrated through detailed simulation studies and two real data examples. Empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms a set of alternative models, which only have either a Gaussian process prior on the latent regression function or a Dirichlet prior on the link function. PMID:26686333

cit: hypothesis testing software for mediation analysis in genomic applications.

PubMed

Millstein, Joshua; Chen, Gary K; Breton, Carrie V

2016-08-01

The challenges of successfully applying causal inference methods include: (i) satisfying underlying assumptions, (ii) limitations in data/models accommodated by the software and (iii) low power of common multiple testing approaches. The causal inference test (CIT) is based on hypothesis testing rather than estimation, allowing the testable assumptions to be evaluated in the determination of statistical significance. A user-friendly software package provides P-values and optionally permutation-based FDR estimates (q-values) for potential mediators. It can handle single and multiple binary and continuous instrumental variables, binary or continuous outcome variables and adjustment covariates. Also, the permutation-based FDR option provides a non-parametric implementation. Simulation studies demonstrate the validity of the cit package and show a substantial advantage of permutation-based FDR over other common multiple testing strategies. The cit open-source R package is freely available from the CRAN website (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/cit/index.html) with embedded C ++ code that utilizes the GNU Scientific Library, also freely available (http://www.gnu.org/software/gsl/). joshua.millstein@usc.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Eclipsing Binaries From the CSTAR Project at Dome A, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ming; Zhang, Hui; Wang, Songhu; Zhou, Ji-Lin; Zhou, Xu; Wang, Lingzhi; Wang, Lifan; Wittenmyer, R. A.; Liu, Hui-Gen; Meng, Zeyang; Ashley, M. C. B.; Storey, J. W. V.; Bayliss, D.; Tinney, Chris; Wang, Ying; Wu, Donghong; Liang, Ensi; Yu, Zhouyi; Fan, Zhou; Feng, Long-Long; Gong, Xuefei; Lawrence, J. S.; Liu, Qiang; Luong-Van, D. M.; Ma, Jun; Wu, Zhenyu; Yan, Jun; Yang, Huigen; Yang, Ji; Yuan, Xiangyan; Zhang, Tianmeng; Zhu, Zhenxi; Zou, Hu

2015-04-01

The Chinese Small Telescope ARray (CSTAR) has observed an area around the Celestial South Pole at Dome A since 2008. About 20,000 light curves in the i band were obtained during the observation season lasting from 2008 March to July. The photometric precision achieves about 4 mmag at i = 7.5 and 20 mmag at i = 12 within a 30 s exposure time. These light curves are analyzed using Lomb-Scargle, Phase Dispersion Minimization, and Box Least Squares methods to search for periodic signals. False positives may appear as a variable signature caused by contaminating stars and the observation mode of CSTAR. Therefore, the period and position of each variable candidate are checked to eliminate false positives. Eclipsing binaries are removed by visual inspection, frequency spectrum analysis, and a locally linear embedding technique. We identify 53 eclipsing binaries in the field of view of CSTAR, containing 24 detached binaries, 8 semi-detached binaries, 18 contact binaries, and 3 ellipsoidal variables. To derive the parameters of these binaries, we use the Eclipsing Binaries via Artificial Intelligence method. The primary and secondary eclipse timing variations (ETVs) for semi-detached and contact systems are analyzed. Correlated primary and secondary ETVs confirmed by false alarm tests may indicate an unseen perturbing companion. Through ETV analysis, we identify two triple systems (CSTAR J084612.64-883342.9 and CSTAR J220502.55-895206.7). The orbital parameters of the third body in CSTAR J220502.55-895206.7 are derived using a simple dynamical model.

Bayesian inference for joint modelling of longitudinal continuous, binary and ordinal events.

PubMed

Li, Qiuju; Pan, Jianxin; Belcher, John

2016-12-01

In medical studies, repeated measurements of continuous, binary and ordinal outcomes are routinely collected from the same patient. Instead of modelling each outcome separately, in this study we propose to jointly model the trivariate longitudinal responses, so as to take account of the inherent association between the different outcomes and thus improve statistical inferences. This work is motivated by a large cohort study in the North West of England, involving trivariate responses from each patient: Body Mass Index, Depression (Yes/No) ascertained with cut-off score not less than 8 at the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and Pain Interference generated from the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item short-form health survey with values returned on an ordinal scale 1-5. There are some well-established methods for combined continuous and binary, or even continuous and ordinal responses, but little work was done on the joint analysis of continuous, binary and ordinal responses. We propose conditional joint random-effects models, which take into account the inherent association between the continuous, binary and ordinal outcomes. Bayesian analysis methods are used to make statistical inferences. Simulation studies show that, by jointly modelling the trivariate outcomes, standard deviations of the estimates of parameters in the models are smaller and much more stable, leading to more efficient parameter estimates and reliable statistical inferences. In the real data analysis, the proposed joint analysis yields a much smaller deviance information criterion value than the separate analysis, and shows other good statistical properties too. © The Author(s) 2014.

Missing Data in Alcohol Clinical Trials with Binary Outcomes

PubMed Central

Hallgren, Kevin A.; Witkiewitz, Katie; Kranzler, Henry R.; Falk, Daniel E.; Litten, Raye Z.; O’Malley, Stephanie S.; Anton, Raymond F.

2017-01-01

Background Missing data are common in alcohol clinical trials for both continuous and binary endpoints. Approaches to handle missing data have been explored for continuous outcomes, yet no studies have compared missing data approaches for binary outcomes (e.g., abstinence, no heavy drinking days). The present study compares approaches to modeling binary outcomes with missing data in the COMBINE study. Method We included participants in the COMBINE Study who had complete drinking data during treatment and who were assigned to active medication or placebo conditions (N=1146). Using simulation methods, missing data were introduced under common scenarios with varying sample sizes and amounts of missing data. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of naltrexone (vs. placebo) in predicting any drinking and any heavy drinking outcomes at the end of treatment using four analytic approaches: complete case analysis (CCA), last observation carried forward (LOCF), the worst-case scenario of missing equals any drinking or heavy drinking (WCS), and multiple imputation (MI). In separate analyses, these approaches were compared when drinking data were manually deleted for those participants who discontinued treatment but continued to provide drinking data. Results WCS produced the greatest amount of bias in treatment effect estimates. MI usually yielded less biased estimates than WCS and CCA in the simulated data, and performed considerably better than LOCF when estimating treatment effects among individuals who discontinued treatment. Conclusions Missing data can introduce bias in treatment effect estimates in alcohol clinical trials. Researchers should utilize modern missing data methods, including MI, and avoid WCS and CCA when analyzing binary alcohol clinical trial outcomes. PMID:27254113

Missing Data in Alcohol Clinical Trials with Binary Outcomes.

PubMed

Hallgren, Kevin A; Witkiewitz, Katie; Kranzler, Henry R; Falk, Daniel E; Litten, Raye Z; O'Malley, Stephanie S; Anton, Raymond F

2016-07-01

Missing data are common in alcohol clinical trials for both continuous and binary end points. Approaches to handle missing data have been explored for continuous outcomes, yet no studies have compared missing data approaches for binary outcomes (e.g., abstinence, no heavy drinking days). This study compares approaches to modeling binary outcomes with missing data in the COMBINE study. We included participants in the COMBINE study who had complete drinking data during treatment and who were assigned to active medication or placebo conditions (N = 1,146). Using simulation methods, missing data were introduced under common scenarios with varying sample sizes and amounts of missing data. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of naltrexone (vs. placebo) in predicting any drinking and any heavy drinking outcomes at the end of treatment using 4 analytic approaches: complete case analysis (CCA), last observation carried forward (LOCF), the worst case scenario (WCS) of missing equals any drinking or heavy drinking, and multiple imputation (MI). In separate analyses, these approaches were compared when drinking data were manually deleted for those participants who discontinued treatment but continued to provide drinking data. WCS produced the greatest amount of bias in treatment effect estimates. MI usually yielded less biased estimates than WCS and CCA in the simulated data and performed considerably better than LOCF when estimating treatment effects among individuals who discontinued treatment. Missing data can introduce bias in treatment effect estimates in alcohol clinical trials. Researchers should utilize modern missing data methods, including MI, and avoid WCS and CCA when analyzing binary alcohol clinical trial outcomes. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Predicting Social Trust with Binary Logistic Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adwere-Boamah, Joseph; Hufstedler, Shirley

2015-01-01

This study used binary logistic regression to predict social trust with five demographic variables from a national sample of adult individuals who participated in The General Social Survey (GSS) in 2012. The five predictor variables were respondents' highest degree earned, race, sex, general happiness and the importance of personally assisting…

Empirical evidence about inconsistency among studies in a pair‐wise meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M.; Higgins, Julian P. T.

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how inconsistency (as measured by the I2 statistic) among studies in a meta‐analysis may differ, according to the type of outcome data and effect measure. We used hierarchical models to analyse data from 3873 binary, 5132 continuous and 880 mixed outcome meta‐analyses within the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Predictive distributions for inconsistency expected in future meta‐analyses were obtained, which can inform priors for between‐study variance. Inconsistency estimates were highest on average for binary outcome meta‐analyses of risk differences and continuous outcome meta‐analyses. For a planned binary outcome meta‐analysis in a general research setting, the predictive distribution for inconsistency among log odds ratios had median 22% and 95% CI: 12% to 39%. For a continuous outcome meta‐analysis, the predictive distribution for inconsistency among standardized mean differences had median 40% and 95% CI: 15% to 73%. Levels of inconsistency were similar for binary data measured by log odds ratios and log relative risks. Fitted distributions for inconsistency expected in continuous outcome meta‐analyses using mean differences were almost identical to those using standardized mean differences. The empirical evidence on inconsistency gives guidance on which outcome measures are most likely to be consistent in particular circumstances and facilitates Bayesian meta‐analysis with an informative prior for heterogeneity. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26679486

Antibacterial Efficacy of Dihydroxylated Chalcones in Binary and Ternary Combinations with Nalidixic Acid and Nalidix Acid-Rutin Against Escherichia coli ATCC 25 922.

PubMed

Talia, Juan Manuel; Tonn, Carlos Eugenio; Debattista, Nora Beatriz; Pappano, Nora Beatriz

2012-12-01

In order to determine the existence of synergism, the bacteriostatic action of flavonoids against Escherichia coli ATCC 25 922 between dihydroxylated chalcones and a clinically interesting conventional antibiotic, binary combinations of 2',3-dihydroxychalcone, 2',4-dihydroxychalcone and 2',4'-dihydroxychalcone with nalidixic acid and its ternary combinations with rutin (inactive flavonoid) were assayed against this Gram negative bacterium. Using a kinetic-turbidimetric method, growth kinetics were monitored in broths containing variable amounts of dihydroxychalcone alone, combinations of dihydroxychalcone variable concentration-nalidixic acid constant concentration and dihydroxychalcone variable concentration-nalidixic acid constant concentration-rutin constant concentration, respectively. The minimum inhibitory concentrations of dihydroxychalcones alone and its binary and ternary combinations were evaluated. All chalcones, and their binary and ternary combinations showed antibacterial activity, being rutin an excellent synergizing for the dihydroxychalcone-nalidixic acid binary combination against E. coli ATCC 25 922. Thus, this synergistic effect is an important way that could lead to the development of new combination antibiotics against infections caused by E. coli.

Effects of variability of X-ray binaries on the X-ray luminosity functions of Milky Way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Nazma; Paul, Biswajit

2016-08-01

The X-ray luminosity functions of galaxies have become a useful tool for population studies of X-ray binaries in them. The availability of long term light-curves of X-ray binaries with the All Sky X-ray Monitors opens up the possibility of constructing X-ray luminosity functions, by also including the intensity variation effects of the galactic X-ray binaries. We have constructed multiple realizations of the X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) of Milky Way, using the long term light-curves of sources obtained in the 2-10 keV energy band with the RXTE-ASM. The observed spread seen in the value of slope of both HMXB and LMXB XLFs are due to inclusion of variable luminosities of X-ray binaries in construction of these XLFs as well as finite sample effects. XLFs constructed for galactic HMXBs in the luminosity range 1036-1039 erg/sec is described by a power-law model with a mean power-law index of -0.48 and a spread due to variability of HMXBs as 0.19. XLFs constructed for galactic LMXBs in the luminosity range 1036-1039 erg/sec has a shape of cut-off power-law with mean power-law index of -0.31 and a spread due to variability of LMXBs as 0.07.

A Coordinated X-Ray and Optical Campaign of the Nearest Massive Eclipsing Binary, Delta Orionis Aa. II. X-Ray Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, J.; Huenemoerder, D. P.; Corcoran, M. F.; Waldron, W.; Naze, Y.; Pollock, A. M. T.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Lauer, J.; Shenar, T.; Russell, C. M. P.;

Chromospheric activity of periodic variable stars (including eclipsing binaries) observed in DR2 LAMOST stellar spectral survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Liyun; Lu, Hongpeng; Han, Xianming L.; Jiang, Linyan; Li, Zhongmu; Zhang, Yong; Hou, Yonghui; Wang, Yuefei; Cao, Zihuang

2018-05-01

The LAMOST spectral survey provides a rich databases for studying stellar spectroscopic properties and chromospheric activity. We cross-matched a total of 105,287 periodic variable stars from several photometric surveys and databases (CSS, LINEAR, Kepler, a recently updated eclipsing star catalogue, ASAS, NSVS, some part of SuperWASP survey, variable stars from the Tsinghua University-NAOC Transient Survey, and other objects from some new references) with four million stellar spectra published in the LAMOST data release 2 (DR2). We found 15,955 spectra for 11,469 stars (including 5398 eclipsing binaries). We calculated their equivalent widths (EWs) of their Hα, Hβ, Hγ, Hδ and Caii H lines. Using the Hα line EW, we found 447 spectra with emission above continuum for a total of 316 stars (178 eclipsing binaries). We identified 86 active stars (including 44 eclipsing binaries) with repeated LAMOST spectra. A total of 68 stars (including 34 eclipsing binaries) show chromospheric activity variability. We also found LAMOST spectra of 12 cataclysmic variables, five of which show chromospheric activity variability. We also made photometric follow-up studies of three short period targets (DY CVn, HAT-192-0001481, and LAMOST J164933.24+141255.0) using the Xinglong 60-cm telescope and the SARA 90-cm and 1-m telescopes, and obtained new BVRI CCD light curves. We analyzed these light curves and obtained orbital and starspot parameters. We detected the first flare event with a huge brightness increase of more than about 1.5 magnitudes in R filter in LAMOST J164933.24+141255.0.

Evaluation of Scale Reliability with Binary Measures Using Latent Variable Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Dimitrov, Dimiter M.; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2010-01-01

A method for interval estimation of scale reliability with discrete data is outlined. The approach is applicable with multi-item instruments consisting of binary measures, and is developed within the latent variable modeling methodology. The procedure is useful for evaluation of consistency of single measures and of sum scores from item sets…

Causal analysis of ordinal treatments and binary outcomes under truncation by death.

PubMed

Wang, Linbo; Richardson, Thomas S; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2017-06-01

It is common that in multi-arm randomized trials, the outcome of interest is "truncated by death," meaning that it is only observed or well-defined conditioning on an intermediate outcome. In this case, in addition to pairwise contrasts, the joint inference for all treatment arms is also of interest. Under a monotonicity assumption we present methods for both pairwise and joint causal analyses of ordinal treatments and binary outcomes in presence of truncation by death. We illustrate via examples the appropriateness of our assumptions in different scientific contexts.

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to comparative audit for carotid surgery.

PubMed

Kuhan, G; Marshall, E C; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; McCollum, P T

2002-12-01

the aim of this study was to illustrate how a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach can aid the reliable comparison of outcome rates between surgeons. retrospective analysis of prospective and retrospective data. binary outcome data (death/stroke within 30 days), together with information on 15 possible risk factors specific for CEA were available on 836 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons from 1992-99. The median patient age was 68 (range 38-86) years and 60% were men. the model was developed using the WinBUGS software. After adjusting for patient-level risk factors, a cross-validatory approach was adopted to identify "divergent" performance. A ranking exercise was also carried out. the overall observed 30-day stroke/death rate was 3.9% (33/836). The model found diabetes, stroke and heart disease to be significant risk factors. There was no significant difference between the predicted and observed outcome rates for any surgeon (Bayesian p -value>0.05). Each surgeon had a median rank of 3 with associated 95% CI 1.0-5.0, despite the variability of observed stroke/death rate from 2.9-4.4%. After risk adjustment, there was very little residual between-surgeon variability in outcome rate. Bayesian hierarchical models can help to accurately quantify the uncertainty associated with surgeons' performance and rank.

K2 Variable Catalogue: Variable stars and eclipsing binaries in K2 campaigns 1 and 0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, D. J.; Kirk, J.; Lam, K. W. F.; McCormac, J.; Walker, S. R.; Brown, D. J. A.; Osborn, H. P.; Pollacco, D. L.; Spake, J.

2015-07-01

Aims: We have created a catalogue of variable stars found from a search of the publicly available K2 mission data from Campaigns 1 and 0. This catalogue provides the identifiers of 8395 variable stars, including 199 candidate eclipsing binaries with periods up to 60 d and 3871 periodic or quasi-periodic objects, with periods up to 20 d for Campaign 1 and 15 d for Campaign 0. Methods: Lightcurves are extracted and detrended from the available data. These are searched using a combination of algorithmic and human classification, leading to a classifier for each object as an eclipsing binary, sinusoidal periodic, quasi periodic, or aperiodic variable. The source of the variability is not identified, but could arise in the non-eclipsing binary cases from pulsation or stellar activity. Each object is cross-matched against variable star related guest observer proposals to the K2 mission, which specifies the variable type in some cases. The detrended lightcurves are also compared to lightcurves currently publicly available. Results: The resulting catalogue gives the ID, type, period, semi-amplitude, and range of the variation seen. We also make available the detrended lightcurves for each object. The catalogue is available at http://deneb.astro.warwick.ac.uk/phrlbj/k2varcat/ and at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/579/A19

Reporting of Numerical and Statistical Differences in Abstracts

PubMed Central

Dryver, Eric; Hux, Janet E

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE The reporting of relative risk reductions (RRRs) or absolute risk reductions (ARRs) to quantify binary outcomes in trials engenders differing perceptions of therapeutic efficacy, and the merits of P values versus confidence intervals (CIs) are also controversial. We describe the manner in which numerical and statistical difference in treatment outcomes is presented in published abstracts. DESIGN A descriptive study of abstracts published in 1986 and 1996 in 8 general medical and specialty journals. Inclusion criteria: controlled, intervention trials with a binary primary or secondary outcome. Seven items were recorded: raw data (outcomes for each treatment arm), measure of relative difference (e.g., RRR), ARR, number needed to treat, P value, CI, and verbal statement of statistical significance. The prevalence of these items was compared between journals and across time. RESULTS Of 5,293 abstracts, 300 met the inclusion criteria. In 1986, 60% of abstracts did not provide both the raw data and a corresponding P value or CI, while 28% failed to do so in 1Dr. Hux is a Career Scientist of the Ontario Ministry of Health and receives salary support from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario.996 (P < .001; RRR of 53%; ARR of 32%; CI for ARR 21% to 43%). The variability between journals was highly significant (P < .001). In 1986, 100% of abstracts lacked a measure of absolute difference while 88% of 1996 abstracts did so (P < .001). In 1986, 98% of abstracts lacked a CI while 65% of 1996 abstracts did so (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS The provision of quantitative outcome and statistical quantitative information has significantly increased between 1986 and 1996. However, further progress can be made to make abstracts more informative. PMID:11929506

Reporting of numerical and statistical differences in abstracts: improving but not optimal.

PubMed

Dryver, Eric; Hux, Janet E

2002-03-01

The reporting of relative risk reductions (RRRs) or absolute risk reductions (ARRs) to quantify binary outcomes in trials engenders differing perceptions of therapeutic efficacy, and the merits of P values versus confidence intervals (CIs) are also controversial. We describe the manner in which numerical and statistical difference in treatment outcomes is presented in published abstracts. A descriptive study of abstracts published in 1986 and 1996 in 8 general medical and specialty journals. controlled, intervention trials with a binary primary or secondary outcome. Seven items were recorded: raw data (outcomes for each treatment arm), measure of relative difference (e.g., RRR), ARR, number needed to treat, P value, CI, and verbal statement of statistical significance. The prevalence of these items was compared between journals and across time. Of 5,293 abstracts, 300 met the inclusion criteria. In 1986, 60% of abstracts did not provide both the raw data and a corresponding P value or CI, while 28% failed to do so in 1Dr. Hux is a Career Scientist of the Ontario Ministry of Health and receives salary support from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario.996 ( P <.001; RRR of 53%; ARR of 32%; CI for ARR 21% to 43%). The variability between journals was highly significant ( P <.001). In 1986, 100% of abstracts lacked a measure of absolute difference while 88% of 1996 abstracts did so ( P <.001). In 1986, 98% of abstracts lacked a CI while 65% of 1996 abstracts did so ( P <.001). The provision of quantitative outcome and statistical quantitative information has significantly increased between 1986 and 1996. However, further progress can be made to make abstracts more informative.

A search for cataclysmic binaries containing strongly magnetic white dwarfs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bond, H. E.; Chanmugam, G.

1982-01-01

The AM Herculis type binaries which contain accreting white dwarfs with surface magnetic fields of a few times 10 to the seventh power gauss were studied. If white dwarfs in cataclysmic binaries have a range of field strengths similar to that among single white dwarfs. AM Her like systems should exist with fields as high as 3 x 10 to the eighth power gauss. It is suggested that such objects will not have the strong optical polarization of the AM Her variables; however, they exhibit high harmonic cyclotron emission, making them spectacular UV sources. We made IUE observations of seven candidate cataclysmic variables selected for optical similarity to AM Her binaries. Although all seven objects were detected in the UV, none display unusually strong UV continua. It is suggested that the distribution of magnetic field strengths among single white dwarfs may be different from that among binaries.

Mass loss from interacting close binary systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plavec, M. J.

1981-01-01

The three well-defined classes of evolved binary systems that show evidence of present and/or past mass loss are the cataclysmic variables, the Algols, and Wolf-Rayet stars. It is thought that the transformation of supergiant binary systems into the very short-period cataclysmic variables must have been a complex process. The new evidence that has recently been obtained from the far ultraviolet spectra that a certain subclass of the Algols (the Serpentids) are undergoing fairly rapid evolution is discussed. It is thought probable that the remarkable mass outflow observed in them is connected with a strong wind powered by accretion. The origin of the circumbinary clouds or flat disks that probably surround many strongly interacting binaries is not clear. Attention is also given to binary systems with hot white dwarf or subdwarf components, such as the symbiotic objects and the BQ stars; it is noted that in them both components may be prone to an enhanced stellar wind.

Empirical evidence about inconsistency among studies in a pair-wise meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-01

This paper investigates how inconsistency (as measured by the I 2 statistic) among studies in a meta-analysis may differ, according to the type of outcome data and effect measure. We used hierarchical models to analyse data from 3873 binary, 5132 continuous and 880 mixed outcome meta-analyses within the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Predictive distributions for inconsistency expected in future meta-analyses were obtained, which can inform priors for between-study variance. Inconsistency estimates were highest on average for binary outcome meta-analyses of risk differences and continuous outcome meta-analyses. For a planned binary outcome meta-analysis in a general research setting, the predictive distribution for inconsistency among log odds ratios had median 22% and 95% CI: 12% to 39%. For a continuous outcome meta-analysis, the predictive distribution for inconsistency among standardized mean differences had median 40% and 95% CI: 15% to 73%. Levels of inconsistency were similar for binary data measured by log odds ratios and log relative risks. Fitted distributions for inconsistency expected in continuous outcome meta-analyses using mean differences were almost identical to those using standardized mean differences. The empirical evidence on inconsistency gives guidance on which outcome measures are most likely to be consistent in particular circumstances and facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis with an informative prior for heterogeneity. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prediction of insemination outcomes in Holstein dairy cattle using alternative machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Shahinfar, Saleh; Page, David; Guenther, Jerry; Cabrera, Victor; Fricke, Paul; Weigel, Kent

2014-02-01

When making the decision about whether or not to breed a given cow, knowledge about the expected outcome would have an economic impact on profitability of the breeding program and net income of the farm. The outcome of each breeding can be affected by many management and physiological features that vary between farms and interact with each other. Hence, the ability of machine learning algorithms to accommodate complex relationships in the data and missing values for explanatory variables makes these algorithms well suited for investigation of reproduction performance in dairy cattle. The objective of this study was to develop a user-friendly and intuitive on-farm tool to help farmers make reproduction management decisions. Several different machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the insemination outcomes of individual cows based on phenotypic and genotypic data. Data from 26 dairy farms in the Alta Genetics (Watertown, WI) Advantage Progeny Testing Program were used, representing a 10-yr period from 2000 to 2010. Health, reproduction, and production data were extracted from on-farm dairy management software, and estimated breeding values were downloaded from the US Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory (Beltsville, MD) database. The edited data set consisted of 129,245 breeding records from primiparous Holstein cows and 195,128 breeding records from multiparous Holstein cows. Each data point in the final data set included 23 and 25 explanatory variables and 1 binary outcome for of 0.756 ± 0.005 and 0.736 ± 0.005 for primiparous and multiparous cows, respectively. The naïve Bayes algorithm, Bayesian network, and decision tree algorithms showed somewhat poorer classification performance. An information-based variable selection procedure identified herd average conception rate, incidence of ketosis, number of previous (failed) inseminations, days in milk at breeding, and mastitis as the most effective explanatory variables in predicting pregnancy outcome. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accommodating Binary and Count Variables in Mediation: A Case for Conditional Indirect Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geldhof, G. John; Anthony, Katherine P.; Selig, James P.; Mendez-Luck, Carolyn A.

2018-01-01

The existence of several accessible sources has led to a proliferation of mediation models in the applied research literature. Most of these sources assume endogenous variables (e.g., M, and Y) have normally distributed residuals, precluding models of binary and/or count data. Although a growing body of literature has expanded mediation models to…

Clustering Binary Data in the Presence of Masking Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brusco, Michael J.

2004-01-01

A number of important applications require the clustering of binary data sets. Traditional nonhierarchical cluster analysis techniques, such as the popular K-means algorithm, can often be successfully applied to these data sets. However, the presence of masking variables in a data set can impede the ability of the K-means algorithm to recover the…

A Framework for Designing Cluster Randomized Trials with Binary Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spybrook, Jessaca; Martinez, Andres

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a frame work for approaching a power analysis for a CRT (cluster randomized trial) with a binary outcome. The authors suggest a framework in the context of a simple CRT and then extend it to a blocked design, or a multi-site cluster randomized trial (MSCRT). The framework is based on proportions, an…

Multilevel Models for Binary Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powers, Daniel A.

2012-01-01

The methods and models for categorical data analysis cover considerable ground, ranging from regression-type models for binary and binomial data, count data, to ordered and unordered polytomous variables, as well as regression models that mix qualitative and continuous data. This article focuses on methods for binary or binomial data, which are…

Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting MD-PhD student outcomes.

PubMed

Bills, James L; VanHouten, Jacob; Grundy, Michelle M; Chalkley, Roger; Dermody, Terence S

2016-03-01

The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a quantitative metric used by MD and MD-PhD programs to evaluate applicants for admission. This study assessed the validity of the MCAT in predicting training performance measures and career outcomes for MD-PhD students at a single institution. The study population consisted of 153 graduates of the Vanderbilt Medical Scientist Training Program (combined MD-PhD program) who matriculated between 1963 and 2003 and completed dual-degree training. This population was divided into three cohorts corresponding to the version of the MCAT taken at the time of application. Multivariable regression (logistic for binary outcomes and linear for continuous outcomes) was used to analyze factors associated with outcome measures. The MCAT score and undergraduate GPA (uGPA) were treated as independent variables; medical and graduate school grades, time-to-PhD defense, USMLE scores, publication number, and career outcome were dependent variables. For cohort 1 (1963-1977), MCAT score was not associated with any assessed outcome, although uGPA was associated with medical school preclinical GPA and graduate school GPA (gsGPA). For cohort 2 (1978-1991), MCAT score was associated with USMLE Step II score and inversely correlated with publication number, and uGPA was associated with preclinical GPA (mspGPA) and clinical GPA (mscGPA). For cohort 3 (1992-2003), the MCAT score was associated with mscGPA, and uGPA was associated with gsGPA. Overall, MCAT score and uGPA were inconsistent or weak predictors of training metrics and career outcomes for this population of MD-PhD students.

New Eclipsing Contact Binary System in Auriga

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, S. J.; Robertson, J. W.; Justice, C.; Campbell, R. T.; Hoskins, J.

2004-05-01

We present data on a newly discovered eclipsing binary system. The serendipitous discovery of this variable star was made by J.W. Robertson analyzing inhomogeneous ensemble photometry of stars in the field of the cataclysmic variable FS Aurigae from Indiana University RoboScope data. We obtained differential time-series BVR photometry during 2003 of this field variable using an ensemble of telescopes including the university observatories at ATU, UCA and joint ventures with amateur observatories in the state of Arkansas (Whispering Pines Observatory and Nubbin Ridge Observatory). The orbital period of this eclipsing system is 0.2508 days. The B-V light curve indicates colors of 1.2 around quadrature, to nearly 1.4 at primary eclipse. Binary star light curve models that best fit the BVR differential photometry suggest that the system is a contact binary overfilling the inner Roche Lobe by 12%, a primary component with a temperature of 4350K, a secondary component with a temperature of 3500K, a mass ratio of 0.37, and an inclination of 83 degrees. We present BVR light curves, an ephemeris, and best fit model parameters for the physical characteristics of this new eclipsing binary system.

New variable stars discovered in the fields of three Galactic open clusters using the VVV survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palma, T.; Minniti, D.; Dékány, I.; Clariá, J. J.; Alonso-García, J.; Gramajo, L. V.; Ramírez Alegría, S.; Bonatto, C.

2016-11-01

This project is a massive near-infrared (NIR) search for variable stars in highly reddened and obscured open cluster (OC) fields projected on regions of the Galactic bulge and disk. The search is performed using photometric NIR data in the J-, H- and Ks- bands obtained from the Vista Variables in the Vía Láctea (VVV) Survey. We performed in each cluster field a variability search using Stetson's variability statistics to select the variable candidates. Later, those candidates were subjected to a frequency analysis using the Generalized Lomb-Scargle and the Phase Dispersion Minimization algorithms. The number of independent observations range between 63 and 73. The newly discovered variables in this study, 157 in total in three different known OCs, are classified based on their light curve shapes, periods, amplitudes and their location in the corresponding color-magnitude (J -Ks ,Ks) and color-color (H -Ks , J - H) diagrams. We found 5 possible Cepheid stars which, based on the period-luminosity relation, are very likely type II Cepheids located behind the bulge. Among the newly discovered variables, there are eclipsing binaries, δ Scuti, as well as background RR Lyrae stars. Using the new version of the Wilson & Devinney code as well as the "Physics Of Eclipsing Binaries" (PHOEBE) code, we analyzed some of the best eclipsing binaries we discovered. Our results show that these studied systems turn out to be ranging from detached to double-contact binaries, with low eccentricities and high inclinations of approximately 80°. Their surface temperatures range between 3500 K and 8000 K.

Photometric detection of a candidate low-mass giant binary system at the Milky Way Galactic Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna Gautam, Abhimat; Do, Tuan; Ghez, Andrea; Sakai, Shoko; Morris, Mark; Lu, Jessica; Witzel, Gunther; Jia, Siyao; Becklin, Eric Eric; Matthews, Keith

2018-01-01

We present the discovery of a new periodic variable star at the Milky Way Galactic Center (GC). This study uses laser guide-star adaptive optics data collected with the W. M. Keck 10 m telescope in the K‧-band (2.2 µm) over 35 nights spanning an 11 year time baseline, and 5 nights of additional H-band (1.6 µm) data. We implemented an iterative photometric calibration and local correction technique, resulting in a photometric uncertainty of Δm_K‧ ∼ 0.03 to a magnitude of m_K‧ ∼ 16.The periodically variable star has a 39.42 day period. We find that the star is not consistent with known periodically variable star classes in this period range with its observed color and luminosity, nor with an eclipsing binary system. The star's color and luminosity are however consistent with an ellipsoidal binary system at the GC, consisting of a K-giant and a dwarf component with an orbital period of 78.84 days. If a binary system, it represents the first detection of a low-mass giant binary system in the central half parsec of the GC. Such long-period binary systems can easily evaporate in the dense environment of the GC due to interactions with other stars. The existence and properties of a low-mass, long-period binary system can thus place valuable constraints on dynamical models of the GC environment and probe the density of the hypothesized dark cusp of stellar remnants at the GC.

A Coordinated X-Ray and Optical Campaign of the Nearest Massive Eclipsing Binary, δ Orionis Aa. II. X-Ray Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, J.; Huenemoerder, D. P.; Corcoran, M. F.; Waldron, W.; Nazé, Y.; Pollock, A. M. T.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Lauer, J.; Shenar, T.; Russell, C. M. P.; Richardson, N. D.; Pablo, H.; Evans, N. R.; Hamaguchi, K.; Gull, T.; Hamann, W.-R.; Oskinova, L.; Ignace, R.; Hoffman, Jennifer L.; Hole, K. T.; Lomax, J. R.

2015-08-01

We present time-resolved and phase-resolved variability studies of an extensive X-ray high-resolution spectral data set of the δ Ori Aa binary system. The four observations, obtained with Chandra ACIS HETGS, have a total exposure time of ≈ 479 ks and provide nearly complete binary phase coverage. Variability of the total X-ray flux in the range of 5-25 Å is confirmed, with a maximum amplitude of about ±15% within a single ≈ 125 ks observation. Periods of 4.76 and 2.04 days are found in the total X-ray flux, as well as an apparent overall increase in the flux level throughout the nine-day observational campaign. Using 40 ks contiguous spectra derived from the original observations, we investigate the variability of emission line parameters and ratios. Several emission lines are shown to be variable, including S xv, Si xiii, and Ne ix. For the first time, variations of the X-ray emission line widths as a function of the binary phase are found in a binary system, with the smallest widths at ϕ = 0.0 when the secondary δ Ori Aa2 is at the inferior conjunction. Using 3D hydrodynamic modeling of the interacting winds, we relate the emission line width variability to the presence of a wind cavity created by a wind-wind collision, which is effectively void of embedded wind shocks and is carved out of the X-ray-producing primary wind, thus producing phase-locked X-ray variability. Based on data from the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the MOST satellite, a Canadian Space Agency mission, jointly operated by Dynacon Inc., the University of Toronto Institute of Aerospace Studies, and the University of British Columbia, with the assistance of the University of Vienna.

Mental versus physical fatigue after subarachnoid hemorrhage: differential associations with outcome.

PubMed

Buunk, Anne M; Groen, Rob J M; Wijbenga, Rianne A; Ziengs, Aaltje L; Metzemaekers, Jan D M; van Dijk, J Marc C; Spikman, Jacoba M

2018-06-20

Fatigue is a major consequence of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), but the specific characteristics are unclear. Our objective was to investigate the nature of post-SAH fatigue (mental or physical) and to determine the relationship with functional outcome in the chronic stage. Also, the possible influence of mood disorders and acute SAH-related factors (SAH type and external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage) on the presence of fatigue was investigated. Patients with an aneurysmal SAH (aSAH) or angiographically negative SAH (anSAH) were assessed 3 to 10 years post-SAH (N = 221). Questionnaires were used to investigate mental and physical fatigue and mood. Functional outcome was examined with the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE). Between-group comparisons and binary logistic regression analysis were performed. Frequencies of mental and physical fatigue were 48.4% and 38.5% respectively, with prevalence of mental fatigue being significantly higher. A two-way ANOVA with SAH type and external CSF drainage as independent variables and mental fatigue as dependent variable, showed a significant main effect of CSF drainage only (p < 0.001). Only mental fatigue explained a significant part of the variance in long-term functional outcome (Model χ 2 = 52.99, p < 0.001; Nagelkerke R² = 0.32). Mental fatigue after SAH is a serious burden to the patient and is associated with impaired long-term functional outcome. Distinguishing different aspects of fatigue is relevant as mental post-SAH fatigue might be a target for treatment aimed to improve long-term outcome. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The Primordial Binary Fraction in Trumpler 14: Frequency and Multiplicity Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabbi, Elena

2017-08-01

This is an astrometric proposal designed to identify and characterize the properties of medium- and long-period (orbital periods ranging from 1.8 to 100 years) visual binaries in the mass range between 4 and 20 Mo in the young compact cluster Trumpler 14 in the Carina Nebula. We aim to probe the virtually unexplored population of intermediate- and high-mass binaries that will experience a Roche-lobe overflow during their post-main-sequence evolution. These binaries are of particular interest because they are expected to be the progenitors of supernovae Type Ia, b, and c, X-ray binaries, double neutron stars and double black holes. Multiplicity properties of young stars can be further used to constrain the outcome of the star-formation process and hence distinguish between various formation scenarios. The medium- and long-period binaries (P> 0.5 yr) are hard to detect and expensive to characterize with traditional ground-based spectroscopy. Knowledge of their orbital properties is however crucial to properly estimate the overall fraction of OB stars whose evolution is affected by binary interaction and to predict the outcome of such interaction. Because of the well characterized PSF of WFC3/UVIS and its temporal stability, HST is the only facility able to characterize the properties of OB-type medium-period binaries in Tr14, and Tr14 is the only nearby high-density OB-type young cluster.

When money is not enough: awareness, success, and variability in motor learning.

PubMed

Manley, Harry; Dayan, Peter; Diedrichsen, Jörn

2014-01-01

When performing a skill such as throwing a dart, many different combinations of joint motions suffice to hit the target. The motor system adapts rapidly to reduce bias in the desired outcome (i.e., the first-order moment of the error); however, the essence of skill is to produce movements with less variability (i.e., to reduce the second-order moment). It is easy to see how feedback about success or failure could sculpt performance to achieve this aim. However, it is unclear whether the dimensions responsible for success or failure need to be known explicitly by the subjects, or whether learning can proceed without explicit awareness of the movement parameters that need to change. Here, we designed a redundant, two-dimensional reaching task in which we could selectively manipulate task success and the variability of action outcomes, whilst also manipulating awareness of the dimension along which performance could be improved. Variability was manipulated either by amplifying natural errors, leaving the correlation between the executed movement and the visual feedback intact, or by adding extrinsic noise, decorrelating movement and feedback. We found that explicit, binary, feedback about success or failure was only sufficient for learning when participants were aware of the dimension along which motor behavior had to change. Without such awareness, learning was only present when extrinsic noise was added to the feedback, but not when task success or variability was manipulated in isolation; learning was also much slower. Our results highlight the importance of conscious awareness of the relevant dimension during motor learning, and suggest that higher-order moments of outcome signals are likely to play a significant role in skill learning in complex tasks.

Mendelian randomization analysis of a time-varying exposure for binary disease outcomes using functional data analysis methods.

PubMed

Cao, Ying; Rajan, Suja S; Wei, Peng

2016-12-01

A Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis is performed to analyze the causal effect of an exposure variable on a disease outcome in observational studies, by using genetic variants that affect the disease outcome only through the exposure variable. This method has recently gained popularity among epidemiologists given the success of genetic association studies. Many exposure variables of interest in epidemiological studies are time varying, for example, body mass index (BMI). Although longitudinal data have been collected in many cohort studies, current MR studies only use one measurement of a time-varying exposure variable, which cannot adequately capture the long-term time-varying information. We propose using the functional principal component analysis method to recover the underlying individual trajectory of the time-varying exposure from the sparsely and irregularly observed longitudinal data, and then conduct MR analysis using the recovered curves. We further propose two MR analysis methods. The first assumes a cumulative effect of the time-varying exposure variable on the disease risk, while the second assumes a time-varying genetic effect and employs functional regression models. We focus on statistical testing for a causal effect. Our simulation studies mimicking the real data show that the proposed functional data analysis based methods incorporating longitudinal data have substantial power gains compared to standard MR analysis using only one measurement. We used the Framingham Heart Study data to demonstrate the promising performance of the new methods as well as inconsistent results produced by the standard MR analysis that relies on a single measurement of the exposure at some arbitrary time point. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Automatic Seizure Detection Based on Morphological Features Using One-Dimensional Local Binary Pattern on Long-Term EEG.

PubMed

Shanir, P P Muhammed; Khan, Kashif Ahmad; Khan, Yusuf Uzzaman; Farooq, Omar; Adeli, Hojjat

2017-12-01

Epileptic neurological disorder of the brain is widely diagnosed using the electroencephalography (EEG) technique. EEG signals are nonstationary in nature and show abnormal neural activity during the ictal period. Seizures can be identified by analyzing and obtaining features of EEG signal that can detect these abnormal activities. The present work proposes a novel morphological feature extraction technique based on the local binary pattern (LBP) operator. LBP provides a unique decimal value to a sample point by weighing the binary outcomes after thresholding the neighboring samples with the present sample point. These LBP values assist in capturing the rising and falling edges of the EEG signal, thus providing a morphologically featured discriminating pattern for epilepsy detection. In the present work, the variability in the LBP values is measured by calculating the sum of absolute difference of the consecutive LBP values. Interquartile range is calculated over the preprocessed EEG signal to provide dispersion measure in the signal. For classification purpose, K-nearest neighbor classifier is used, and the performance is evaluated on 896.9 hours of data from CHB-MIT continuous EEG database. Mean accuracy of 99.7% and mean specificity of 99.8% is obtained with average false detection rate of 0.47/h and sensitivity of 99.2% for 136 seizures.

A general method for handling missing binary outcome data in randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; White, Ian R; Mason, Dan; Sutton, Stephen

2014-01-01

Aims The analysis of randomized controlled trials with incomplete binary outcome data is challenging. We develop a general method for exploring the impact of missing data in such trials, with a focus on abstinence outcomes. Design We propose a sensitivity analysis where standard analyses, which could include ‘missing = smoking’ and ‘last observation carried forward’, are embedded in a wider class of models. Setting We apply our general method to data from two smoking cessation trials. Participants A total of 489 and 1758 participants from two smoking cessation trials. Measurements The abstinence outcomes were obtained using telephone interviews. Findings The estimated intervention effects from both trials depend on the sensitivity parameters used. The findings differ considerably in magnitude and statistical significance under quite extreme assumptions about the missing data, but are reasonably consistent under more moderate assumptions. Conclusions A new method for undertaking sensitivity analyses when handling missing data in trials with binary outcomes allows a wide range of assumptions about the missing data to be assessed. In two smoking cessation trials the results were insensitive to all but extreme assumptions. PMID:25171441

Quasiperiodic Oscillations in X-ray Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Klis, M.; Murdin, P.

2000-11-01

The term quasiperiodic oscillation (QPO) is used in high-energy astrophysics for any type of non-periodic variability that is constrained to a relatively narrow range of variability frequencies. X-RAY BINARIES are systems in which a `compact object', either a BLACK HOLE or a NEUTRON STAR, orbits a normal star and captures matter from it. The matter spirals down to the compact object and heats up ...

Forecast Modelling via Variations in Binary Image-Encoded Information Exploited by Deep Learning Neural Networks.

PubMed

Liu, Da; Xu, Ming; Niu, Dongxiao; Wang, Shoukai; Liang, Sai

2016-01-01

Traditional forecasting models fit a function approximation from dependent invariables to independent variables. However, they usually get into trouble when date are presented in various formats, such as text, voice and image. This study proposes a novel image-encoded forecasting method that input and output binary digital two-dimensional (2D) images are transformed from decimal data. Omitting any data analysis or cleansing steps for simplicity, all raw variables were selected and converted to binary digital images as the input of a deep learning model, convolutional neural network (CNN). Using shared weights, pooling and multiple-layer back-propagation techniques, the CNN was adopted to locate the nexus among variations in local binary digital images. Due to the computing capability that was originally developed for binary digital bitmap manipulation, this model has significant potential for forecasting with vast volume of data. The model was validated by a power loads predicting dataset from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012.

Forecast Modelling via Variations in Binary Image-Encoded Information Exploited by Deep Learning Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Xu, Ming; Niu, Dongxiao; Wang, Shoukai; Liang, Sai

2016-01-01

Traditional forecasting models fit a function approximation from dependent invariables to independent variables. However, they usually get into trouble when date are presented in various formats, such as text, voice and image. This study proposes a novel image-encoded forecasting method that input and output binary digital two-dimensional (2D) images are transformed from decimal data. Omitting any data analysis or cleansing steps for simplicity, all raw variables were selected and converted to binary digital images as the input of a deep learning model, convolutional neural network (CNN). Using shared weights, pooling and multiple-layer back-propagation techniques, the CNN was adopted to locate the nexus among variations in local binary digital images. Due to the computing capability that was originally developed for binary digital bitmap manipulation, this model has significant potential for forecasting with vast volume of data. The model was validated by a power loads predicting dataset from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. PMID:27281032

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Binarity and Variable Stars in the Open Cluster NGC 2126

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chehlaeh, Nareemas; Mkrtichian, David; Kim, Seung-Lee; Lampens, Patricia; Komonjinda, Siramas; Kusakin, Anatoly; Glazunova, Ljudmila

2018-04-01

We present the results of an analysis of photometric time-series observations for NGC 2126 acquired at the Thai National Observatory (TNO) in Thailand and the Mount Lemmon Optical Astronomy Observatory (LOAO) in USA during the years 2004, 2013 and 2015. The main purpose is to search for new variable stars and to study the light curves of binary systems as well as the oscillation spectra of pulsating stars. NGC 2126 is an intermediate-age open cluster which has a population of stars inside the δ Scuti instability strip. Several variable stars are reported including three eclipsing binary stars, one of which is an eclipsing binary star with a pulsating component (V551 Aur). The Wilson-Devinney technique was used to analyze its light curves and to determine a new set of the system’s parameters. A frequency analysis of the eclipse-subtracted light curve was also performed. Eclipsing binaries which are members of open clusters are capable of delivering strong constraints on the cluster’s properties which are in turn useful for a pulsational analysis of their pulsating components. Therefore, high-resolution, high-quality spectra will be needed to derive accurate component radial velocities of the faint eclipsing binaries which are located in the field of NGC 2126. The new Devasthal Optical Telescope, suitably equipped, could in principle do this.

The X-Ray Binary Population of the Nearby Dwarf Starburst Galaxy IC 10: Variable and Transient X-Ray Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laycock, Silas; Cappallo, Rigel; Williams, Benjamin F.

We have monitored the Cassiopeia dwarf galaxy (IC 10) in a series of 10 Chandra ACIS-S observations to capture its variable and transient X-ray source population, which is expected to be dominated by High Mass X-ray Binaries (HMXBs). We present a sample of 21 X-ray sources that are variable between observations at the 3 σ level, from a catalog of 110 unique point sources. We find four transients (flux variability ratio greater than 10) and a further eight objects with ratios >5. The observations span the years 2003–2010 and reach a limiting luminosity of >10{sup 35} erg s{sup −1}, providingmore » sensitivity to X-ray binaries in IC 10 as well as flare stars in the foreground Milky Way. The nature of the variable sources is investigated from light curves, X-ray spectra, energy quantiles, and optical counterparts. The purpose of this study is to discover the composition of the X-ray binary population in a young starburst environment. IC 10 provides a sharp contrast in stellar population age (<10 My) when compared to the Magellanic Clouds (40–200 My) where most of the known HMXBs reside. We find 10 strong HMXB candidates, 2 probable background Active Galactic Nuclei, 4 foreground flare-stars or active binaries, and 5 not yet classifiable sources. Complete classification of the sample requires optical spectroscopy for radial velocity analysis and deeper X-ray observations to obtain higher S/N spectra and search for pulsations. A catalog and supporting data set are provided.« less

CCD Times of Minima of Selected Eclipsing Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zejda, Miloslav

2004-12-01

682 CCD minima observations of 259 eclipsing binaries made mainly by author are presented. The observed stars were chosen mainly from catalogue BRKA of observing programme of BRNO-Variable Star Section of CAS.

Period variation studies of six contact binaries in M4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rukmini, Jagirdar; Shanti Priya, Devarapalli

2018-04-01

We present the first period study of six contact binaries in the closest globular cluster M4 the data collected from June 1995‑June 2009 and Oct 2012‑Sept 2013. New times of minima are determined for all the six variables and eclipse timing (O-C) diagrams along with the quadratic fit are presented. For all the variables, the study of (O-C) variations reveals changes in the periods. In addition, the fundamental parameters for four of the contact binaries obtained using the Wilson-Devinney code (v2003) are presented. Planned observations of these binaries using the 3.6-m Devasthal Optical Telescope (DOT) and the 4-m International Liquid Mirror Telescope (ILMT) operated by the Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES; Nainital) can throw light on their evolutionary status from long term period variation studies.

A Detailed Survey of Pulsating Variables in Five Globular Clusters (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, B. W.

2016-12-01

(Abstract only) Globular clusters are ideal laboratories for conducting a stellar census. Of particular interest are pulsating variables, which provide astronomers with a tool to probe the properties of the stars and the cluster. We observed each of five globular clusters hundreds to thousands of times over a time span ranging from 2 to 4 years in B, V, and I filters using the SARA 0.6-meter telescope located at Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory and the 0.9-meter telescope located at Kitt Peak, Arizona. The images were analyzed using difference image analysis to identify and produce light curves of all variables found in each cluster. In total we identified 377 variables with 140 of these being newly discovered increasing the number of known variables stars in these clusters by 60%. Of the total we have identified 319 RR Lyrae variables (193 RR0, 18 RR01, 101 RR1, 7 RR2), 9 SX Phe stars, 5 Cepheid variables, 11 eclipsing variables, and 33 long period variables. For IC4499 we identified 64 RR0, 18 RR01, 14 RR1, 4 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 1 eclipsing binary, and 2 long period variables. For NGC4833 we identified 10 RR0, 7 RR1, 3 RR2, 6 SX Phe, 5 eclipsing binaries, and 9 long period variables. For NGC6171 (M107) we identified 14 RR0, 7 RR1, and 1 SX Phe. For NGC6402 (M14) we identified 55 RR0, 57 RR1, 1 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 6 Cepheids, 1 eclipsing binary, and 15 long period variables. For NGC6584 we identified 50 RR0, 16 RR1, 4 eclipsing binaries, and 7 long period variables. From our extensive data set we were able to obtain sufficient temporal and complete phase coverage of the RR Lyrae variables. This has allowed us not only to properly classify each of the RR Lyrae variables but also to use Fourier decomposition of the B, V, and I light curves to further analyze the properties of the variable stars and hence the physical properties of each globular cluster.

Binary recursive partitioning: background, methods, and application to psychology.

PubMed

Merkle, Edgar C; Shaffer, Victoria A

2011-02-01

Binary recursive partitioning (BRP) is a computationally intensive statistical method that can be used in situations where linear models are often used. Instead of imposing many assumptions to arrive at a tractable statistical model, BRP simply seeks to accurately predict a response variable based on values of predictor variables. The method outputs a decision tree depicting the predictor variables that were related to the response variable, along with the nature of the variables' relationships. No significance tests are involved, and the tree's 'goodness' is judged based on its predictive accuracy. In this paper, we describe BRP methods in a detailed manner and illustrate their use in psychological research. We also provide R code for carrying out the methods.

A Catalog of Eclipsing Binaries and Variable Stars Observed with ASTEP 400 from Dome C, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapellier, E.; Mékarnia, D.; Abe, L.; Guillot, T.; Agabi, K.; Rivet, J.-P.; Schmider, F.-X.; Crouzet, N.; Aristidi, E.

2016-10-01

We used the large photometric database of the ASTEP program, whose primary goal was to detect exoplanets in the southern hemisphere from Antarctica, to search for eclipsing binaries (EcBs) and variable stars. 673 EcBs and 1166 variable stars were detected, including 31 previously known stars. The resulting online catalogs give the identification, the classification, the period, and the depth or semi-amplitude of each star. Data and light curves for each object are available at http://astep-vo.oca.eu.

Comparison of the binary logistic and skewed logistic (Scobit) models of injury severity in motor vehicle collisions.

PubMed

Tay, Richard

2016-03-01

The binary logistic model has been extensively used to analyze traffic collision and injury data where the outcome of interest has two categories. However, the assumption of a symmetric distribution may not be a desirable property in some cases, especially when there is a significant imbalance in the two categories of outcome. This study compares the standard binary logistic model with the skewed logistic model in two cases in which the symmetry assumption is violated in one but not the other case. The differences in the estimates, and thus the marginal effects obtained, are significant when the assumption of symmetry is violated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Photometric Variability to Detect Binarity in the Central Stars of Four Planetary Nebulae, A 43, A 74, NGC 6720, and NGC 6853

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Alexander; De Marco, O.

2007-12-01

Recent observational evidence and theoretical models are challenging the classical paradigm of single star planetary nebula (PN) evolution, suggesting instead that binary stars play a significant role in the process of PN formation. In order to shape the 90% of PN that are non-spherical, the central star must be rotating and have a magnetic field; the most-likely source of the angular momentum needed to sustain magnetic fields is a binary companion. More observational evidence is needed to confirm that the fraction of PN with close binary central stars is indeed higher than the currently known value of 10-15%. As part of an international effort to detect binary central stars (PLAN-B - Panetary Nebula Binaries), we are carrying out a new photometric survey to look for close binary central stars of PN. Here we present the findings for 4 objects: A 43, A 74, NGC 6720, and NGC 6853. NGC 6720 and NGC 6853 show evidence of periodic variability, the former of which might even show one eclipse. Once completed, the survey will assess the binarity of about 100 central stars of PN.

MicroDAIMON study: Microcirculatory DAIly MONitoring in critically ill patients: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Scorcella, Claudia; Damiani, Elisa; Domizi, Roberta; Pierantozzi, Silvia; Tondi, Stefania; Carsetti, Andrea; Ciucani, Silvia; Monaldi, Valentina; Rogani, Mara; Marini, Benedetto; Adrario, Erica; Romano, Rocco; Ince, Can; Boerma, E Christiaan; Donati, Abele

2018-05-15

Until now, the prognostic value of microcirculatory alterations in critically ill patients has been mainly evaluated in highly selected subgroups. Aim of this study is to monitor the microcirculation daily in mixed group of Intensive Care Unit (ICU)-patients and to establish the association between (the evolution of) microcirculatory alterations and outcome. This is a prospective longitudinal observational single-centre study in adult patients admitted to a 12-bed ICU in an Italian teaching hospital. Sublingual microcirculation was evaluated daily, from admission to discharge/death, using Sidestream Dark Field imaging. Videos were analysed offline to assess flow and density variables. Laboratory and clinical data were recorded simultaneously. A priori, a Microvascular Flow Index (MFI) < 2.6 was defined as abnormal. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between microcirculatory variables and outcomes; a Kaplan-Meier survival curve was built. Outcomes were ICU and 90-day mortality. A total of 97 patients were included. An abnormal MFI was present on day 1 in 20.6%, and in 55.7% of cases during ICU admission. Patients with a baseline MFI < 2.6 had higher ICU, in-hospital and 90-day mortality (45 vs. 15.6%, p = 0.012; 55 vs. 28.6%, p = 0.035; 55 vs. 26%, p = 0.017, respectively). An independent association between baseline MFI < 2.6 and outcome was confirmed in a binary logistic analysis (odds ratio 4.594 [1.340-15.754], p = 0.015). A heart rate (HR) ≥ 90 bpm was an adjunctive predictor of mortality. However, a model with stepwise inclusion of mean arterial pressure < 65 mmHg, HR ≥ 90 bpm, lactate > 2 mmol/L and MFI < 2.6 did not detect significant differences in ICU mortality. In case an abnormal MFI was present on day 1, ICU mortality was significantly higher in comparison with patients with an abnormal MFI after day 1 (38 vs. 6%, p = 0.001), indicating a time-dependent significant difference in prognostic value. In a general ICU population, an abnormal microcirculation at baseline is an independent predictor for mortality. In this setting, additional routine daily microcirculatory monitoring did not reveal extra prognostic information. Further research is needed to integrate microcirculatory monitoring in a set of commonly available hemodynamic variables. Trial registration NCT 02649088, www.clinicaltrials.gov . Date of registration: 23 December 2015, retrospectively registered.

Diffuse-interface model for rapid phase transformations in nonequilibrium systems.

PubMed

Galenko, Peter; Jou, David

2005-04-01

A thermodynamic approach to rapid phase transformations within a diffuse interface in a binary system is developed. Assuming an extended set of independent thermodynamic variables formed by the union of the classic set of slow variables and the space of fast variables, we introduce finiteness of the heat and solute diffusive propagation at the finite speed of the interface advancing. To describe transformations within the diffuse interface, we use the phase-field model which allows us to follow steep but smooth changes of phase within the width of the diffuse interface. Governing equations of the phase-field model are derived for the hyperbolic model, a model with memory, and a model of nonlinear evolution of transformation within the diffuse interface. The consistency of the model is proved by the verification of the validity of the condition of positive entropy production and by outcomes of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. A comparison with existing sharp-interface and diffuse-interface versions of the model is given.

Waist circumference, body mass index, and employment outcomes.

PubMed

Kinge, Jonas Minet

2017-07-01

Body mass index (BMI) is an imperfect measure of body fat. Recent studies provide evidence in favor of replacing BMI with waist circumference (WC). Hence, I investigated whether or not the association between fat mass and employment status vary by anthropometric measures. I used 15 rounds of the Health Survey for England (1998-2013), which has measures of employment status in addition to measured height, weight, and WC. WC and BMI were entered as continuous variables and obesity as binary variables defined using both WC and BMI. I used multivariate models controlling for a set of covariates. The association of WC with employment was of greater magnitude than the association between BMI and employment. I reran the analysis using conventional instrumental variables methods. The IV models showed significant impacts of obesity on employment; however, they were not more pronounced when WC was used to measure obesity, compared to BMI. This means that, in the IV models, the impact of fat mass on employment did not depend on the measure of fat mass.

CCD Times of Minima of Faint Eclipsing Binaries in 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zejda, Miloslav

2002-06-01

196 CCD minima observations of 122 eclipsing binaries made by the author in 2000 are presented. The observed stars were chosen from the catalogue BRKA of observing programme of BRNO-Variable Star Section of CAS.

The Bulgarian Contribution to the Study of variable stars on observational data from the Kepler mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjurkchieva, D. P.; Dimitrov, D. P.; Radeva, V. S.; Vasileva, D. L.; Atanasova, T. V.; Stateva, I. V.; Petrov, N. I.; Iliev, I. Kh.

2018-02-01

This review paper presents the results of investigations of variable stars obtained by Bulgarian astronomers based on observations of Kepler mission. The main contributions are: determination of orbits and global parameters of more than 100 binary stars; creation of the largest catalog of eccentric stars; identification of sixty new binaries with eccentricity over 0.5; discovery of 19 heartbeat stars; detailed investigation of the spot and flare activity of several binary stars; asteroseismic study of three pulsating stars; detection of deep transits of WD 1145+017 due to its disentangling planet system. The paper illustrates not only scientific significance but also educational and social impact of the work on these tasks.

The new eclipsing magnetic binary system E 1114 + 182

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biermann, P.; Schmidt, G. D.; Liebert, J.; Tapia, S.; Strittmatter, P. A.; West, S.; Stockman, H. S.; Kuehr, H.; Lamb, D. Q.

1985-01-01

A comprehensive analysis of E 1114 + 182, the first eclipsing AM Herculis binary system and the shortest-period eclipsing cataclysmic variable known, is presented. The time-resolved X-ray observations which led to the system's recognition as an AM Her system with a roughly 90 minute orbital period are reported. The current optical photometric and polarimetric ephemeris and a description of the system's phase-modulated properties are given. The detailed photometric eclipse profile and the highly variable spectroscopic behavior are addressed. This information is used to determine systemic parameters and derive new information on the line emission regions. The data put severe constraints on current torque models for keeping the binary and white dwarf rotation in phase.

Estimating neighborhood variability with a binary comparison matrix.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, D.L.

1985-01-01

A technique which utilizes a binary comparison matrix has been developed to implement a neighborhood function for a raster format data base. The technique assigns an index value to the center pixel of 3- by 3-pixel neighborhoods. The binary comparison matrix provides additional information not found in two other neighborhood variability statistics; the function is sensitive to both the number of classes within the neighborhood and the frequency of pixel occurrence in each of the classes. Application of the function to a spatial data base from the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, demonstrates 1) the numerical distribution of the index values, and 2) the spatial patterns exhibited by the numerical values. -Author

A search for spectroscopic binaries among the runaway O type stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, R. C.

1982-01-01

Numerous radial velocity measurements of medium dispersion were made for the 10 brighter stars given in Stone's list of very probable O type runaways. All plates were measured with the KPNO PDS microdensitometer, and a new iterative reductional analysis was used to derive plate velocities, which are estimated to be 1.6 times more accurate internally than those found by using the traditional method. Of thse stars, psi Per, alpha Cam, HD 188209, and 26 Cep are identified as probable velocity variables, while 9 Sge, lambda Cep, and HD 218915 are classed as possible variables. If the source of this variability is Keplerian rather than atmospheric, which cannot be established unequivocally from the observations of this paper, psi Per could be a spectroscopic binary with a black hole companion, and at least 1.2 solar mass. The detection of runaway binary systems from radial velocity measurements is discussed.

A general method for handling missing binary outcome data in randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; White, Ian R; Mason, Dan; Sutton, Stephen

2014-12-01

The analysis of randomized controlled trials with incomplete binary outcome data is challenging. We develop a general method for exploring the impact of missing data in such trials, with a focus on abstinence outcomes. We propose a sensitivity analysis where standard analyses, which could include 'missing = smoking' and 'last observation carried forward', are embedded in a wider class of models. We apply our general method to data from two smoking cessation trials. A total of 489 and 1758 participants from two smoking cessation trials. The abstinence outcomes were obtained using telephone interviews. The estimated intervention effects from both trials depend on the sensitivity parameters used. The findings differ considerably in magnitude and statistical significance under quite extreme assumptions about the missing data, but are reasonably consistent under more moderate assumptions. A new method for undertaking sensitivity analyses when handling missing data in trials with binary outcomes allows a wide range of assumptions about the missing data to be assessed. In two smoking cessation trials the results were insensitive to all but extreme assumptions. © 2014 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

Is the perceived placebo effect comparable between adults and children? A meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Janiaud, Perrine; Cornu, Catherine; Lajoinie, Audrey; Djemli, Amina; Cucherat, Michel; Kassai, Behrouz

2017-01-01

A potential larger perceived placebo effect in children compared with adults could influence the detection of the treatment effect and the extrapolation of the treatment benefit from adults to children. This study aims to explore this potential difference, using a meta-epidemiological approach. A systematic review of the literature was done to identify trials included in meta-analyses evaluating a drug intervention with separate data for adults and children. The standardized mean change and the proportion of responders (binary outcomes) were used to calculate the perceived placebo effect. A meta-regression analysis was conducted to test for the difference between adults and children of the perceived placebo effect. For binary outcomes, the perceived placebo effect was significantly more favorable in children compared with adults (β = 0.13; P = 0.001). Parallel group trials (β = -1.83; P < 0.001), subjective outcomes (β = -0.76; P < 0.001), and the disease type significantly influenced the perceived placebo effect. The perceived placebo effect is different between adults and children for binary outcomes. This difference seems to be influenced by the design, the disease, and outcomes. Calibration of new studies for children should consider cautiously the placebo effect in children.

The search for an elusive cutoff remains: Problems of binary classification of heavy drinking as an endpoint for alcohol clinical trials.

PubMed

Pearson, Matthew R; Bravo, Adrian J; Kirouac, Megan; Witkiewitz, Katie

2017-02-01

To examine whether a clinically meaningful alcohol consumption cutoff can be created for clinical samples, we used receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves to derive gender-specific consumption cutoffs that maximized sensitivity and specificity in the prediction of a wide range of negative consequences from drinking. We conducted secondary data analyses using data from two large clinical trials targeting alcohol use disorders: Project MATCH (n=1726) and COMBINE (n=1383). In both studies, we found that the ideal cutoff for men and women that maximized sensitivity/specificity varied substantially both across different alcohol consumption variables and alcohol consequence outcomes. Further, the levels of sensitivity/specificity were poor across all consequences. These results fail to provide support for a clinically meaningful alcohol consumption cutoff and suggest that binary classification of levels of alcohol consumption is a poor proxy for maximizing sensitivity/specificity in the prediction of negative consequences from drinking. Future research examining consumption-consequence associations should take advantage of continuous measures of alcohol consumption and alternative approaches for assessing the link between levels of consumption and consequences (e.g., ecological momentary assessment). Clinical researchers should consider focusing more directly on the consequences they aim to reduce instead of relying on consumption as a proxy for more clinically meaningful outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Search for an Elusive Cutoff Remains: Problems of Binary Classification of Heavy Drinking as an Endpoint for Alcohol Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Pearson, Matthew R.; Bravo, Adrian J.; Kirouac, Megan; Witkiewitz, Katie

2017-01-01

Background To examine whether a clinically meaningful alcohol consumption cutoff can be created for clinical samples, we used receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves to derive gender-specific consumption cutoffs that maximized sensitivity and specificity in the prediction of a wide range of negative consequences from drinking. Methods We conducted secondary data analyses using data from two large clinical trials targeting alcohol use disorders: Project MATCH (n = 1,726) and COMBINE (n = 1,383). Results In both studies, we found that the ideal cutoff for men and women that maximized sensitivity/specificity varied substantially both across different alcohol consumption variables and alcohol consequence outcomes. Further, the levels of sensitivity/specificity were poor across all consequences. Conclusions These results fail to provide support for a clinically meaningful alcohol consumption cutoff and suggest that binary classification of levels of alcohol consumption is a poor proxy for maximizing sensitivity/specificity in the prediction of negative consequences from drinking. Future research examining consumption-consequence associations should take advantage of continuous measures of alcohol consumption and alternative approaches for assessing the link between levels of consumption and consequences (e.g., ecological momentary assessment). Clinical researchers should consider focusing more directly on the consequences they aim to reduce instead of relying on consumption as a proxy for more clinically meaningful outcomes. PMID:28038361

Self-declared stock ownership and association with positive trial outcome in randomized controlled trials with binary outcomes published in general medical journals: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Falk Delgado, Alberto; Falk Delgado, Anna

2017-07-26

Describe the prevalence and types of conflicts of interest (COI) in published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in general medical journals with a binary primary outcome and assess the association between conflicts of interest and favorable outcome. Parallel-group RCTs with a binary primary outcome published in three general medical journals during 2013-2015 were identified. COI type, funding source, and outcome were extracted. Binomial logistic regression model was performed to assess association between COI and funding source with outcome. A total of 509 consecutive parallel-group RCTs were included in the study. COI was reported in 74% in mixed funded RCTs and in 99% in for-profit funded RCTs. Stock ownership was reported in none of the non-profit RCTs, in 7% of mixed funded RCTs, and in 50% of for-profit funded RCTs. Mixed-funded RCTs had employees from the funding company in 11% and for-profit RCTs in 76%. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that stock ownership in the funding company among any of the authors was associated with a favorable outcome (odds ratio = 3.53; 95% confidence interval = 1.59-7.86; p < 0.01). COI in for-profit funded RCTs is extensive, because the factors related to COI are not fully independent, a multivariable analysis should be cautiously interpreted. However, after multivariable adjustment only stock ownership from the funding company among authors is associated with a favorable outcome.

Reciprocal Interaction of 24-Hour Blood Pressure Variability and Systolic Blood Pressure on Outcome in Stroke Thrombolysis.

PubMed

Kellert, Lars; Hametner, Christian; Ahmed, Niaz; Rauch, Geraldine; MacLeod, Mary J; Perini, Francesco; Lees, Kennedy R; Ringleb, Peter A

2017-07-01

Significance and management of blood pressure (BP) changes in acute stroke care are unclear. Here, we aimed to investigate the impact of 24-hour BP variability (BPV) on outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolysis. From the Safe Implementation of Treatment in Stroke International Stroke Thrombolysis registry, 28 976 patients with documented pre-treatment systolic BP at 2 and 24 hours were analyzed. The primary measure of BP variability was successive variability. Data were preprocessed using coarsened exact matching. We assessed early neurological improvement, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH), and long-term functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] at 90 days) by binary and ordinal regression analyses. Attempts to explain successive variation for analysis of BPV with patients characteristics at admission found systolic BP (5.5% variance) to be most influential, yet 92% of BPV variance remained unexplained. Independently from systolic BP, successive variation for analysis of BPV was associated with poor functional outcome mRS score of 0 to 2 (odds ratio [OR], 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-0.98), disadvantage across the shift of mRS (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08), mortality (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08), SICH SITS (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06-1.23), and SICH ECASS (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.10-1.40; ECASS [European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study 2]). Analyzing successive variation for analysis of BPV as a function of pre-treatment, systolic BP significantly improved the prediction of functional outcome (mRS score of 0-1, mRS score of 0-2, neurological improvement, mRS-shift: all P interaction <0.01). Excluding patients with atrial fibrillation in a sensitivity analysis gave consistent results overall. This study suggests the need for a more individual BP management accounting for pre-treatment BP and the acute BP course (ie, BPV) to achieve best possible outcome for the patient. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Classification of close binary systems by Svechnikov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryomova, G. N.

The paper presents the historical overview of classification schemes of eclipsing variable stars with the foreground of advantages of the classification scheme by Svechnikov being widely appreciated for Close Binary Systems due to simplicity of classification criteria and brevity.

A ROSAT Survey of Contact Binary Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geske, M. T.; Gettel, S. J.; McKay, T. A.

2006-01-01

Contact binary stars are common variable stars that are all believed to emit relatively large fluxes of X-rays. In this work we combine a large new sample of contact binary stars derived from the ROTSE-I telescope with X-ray data from the ROSAT All Sky Survey (RASS) to estimate the X-ray volume emissivity of contact binary stars in the Galaxy. We obtained X-ray fluxes for 140 contact binaries from the RASS, as well as two additional stars observed by the XMM-Newton observatory. From these data we confirm the emission of X-rays from all contact binary systems, with typical luminosities of approximately 1.0×1030 ergs s-1. Combining calculated luminosities with an estimated contact binary space density, we find that contact binaries do not have strong enough X-ray emission to account for a significant portion of the Galactic X-ray background.

Optimally cloned binary coherent states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, C. R.; Leuchs, G.; Marquardt, Ch.; Andersen, U. L.

2017-10-01

Binary coherent state alphabets can be represented in a two-dimensional Hilbert space. We capitalize this formal connection between the otherwise distinct domains of qubits and continuous variable states to map binary phase-shift keyed coherent states onto the Bloch sphere and to derive their quantum-optimal clones. We analyze the Wigner function and the cumulants of the clones, and we conclude that optimal cloning of binary coherent states requires a nonlinearity above second order. We propose several practical and near-optimal cloning schemes and compare their cloning fidelity to the optimal cloner.

Predicting the occurrence of wildfires with binary structured additive regression models.

PubMed

Ríos-Pena, Laura; Kneib, Thomas; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Marey-Pérez, Manuel

2017-02-01

Wildfires are one of the main environmental problems facing societies today, and in the case of Galicia (north-west Spain), they are the main cause of forest destruction. This paper used binary structured additive regression (STAR) for modelling the occurrence of wildfires in Galicia. Binary STAR models are a recent contribution to the classical logistic regression and binary generalized additive models. Their main advantage lies in their flexibility for modelling non-linear effects, while simultaneously incorporating spatial and temporal variables directly, thereby making it possible to reveal possible relationships among the variables considered. The results showed that the occurrence of wildfires depends on many covariates which display variable behaviour across space and time, and which largely determine the likelihood of ignition of a fire. The joint possibility of working on spatial scales with a resolution of 1 × 1 km cells and mapping predictions in a colour range makes STAR models a useful tool for plotting and predicting wildfire occurrence. Lastly, it will facilitate the development of fire behaviour models, which can be invaluable when it comes to drawing up fire-prevention and firefighting plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE MULTI-WAVELENGTH CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TeV BINARY LS I+61°303

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saha, L.; Chitnis, V. R.; Shukla, A.

2016-06-01

We study the characteristics of the TeV binary LS I+61°303 in radio, soft X-ray, hard X-ray, and gamma-ray (GeV and TeV) energies. The long-term variability characteristics are examined as a function of the phase of the binary period of 26.496 days as well as the phase of the superorbital period of 1626 days, dividing the observations into a matrix of 10 × 10 phases of these two periods. We find that the long-term variability can be described by a sine function of the superorbital period, with the phase and amplitude systematically varying with the binary period phase. We also findmore » a definite wavelength-dependent change in this variability description. To understand the radiation mechanism, we define three states in the orbital/superorbital phase matrix and examine the wideband spectral energy distribution. The derived source parameters indicate that the emission geometry is dominated by a jet structure showing a systematic variation with the orbital/superorbital period. We suggest that LS I+61°303 is likely a microquasar with a steady jet.« less

Associating Long-term Gamma-ray Variability with the Superorbital Period of LS I + 61 Deg. 303

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bellazzini, R.; Bonamente, E.; Brandt, T. J.; Bregeon, J.; Brigida, M.;

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Yue; Liu, Xin; Loeb, Abraham

We perform a systematic search for sub-parsec binary supermassive black holes (BHs) in normal broad-line quasars at z < 0.8, using multi-epoch Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopy of the broad Hβ line. Our working model is that (1) one and only one of the two BHs in the binary is active; (2) the active BH dynamically dominates its own broad-line region (BLR) in the binary system, so that the mean velocity of the BLR reflects the mean velocity of its host BH; (3) the inactive companion BH is orbiting at a distance of a few R{sub BLR}, where R{submore » BLR} ∼ 0.01-0.1 pc is the BLR size. We search for the expected line-of-sight acceleration of the broad-line velocity from binary orbital motion by cross-correlating SDSS spectra from two epochs separated by up to several years in the quasar rest frame. Out of ∼700 pairs of spectra for which we have good measurements of the velocity shift between two epochs (1σ error ∼40 km s{sup –1}), we detect 28 systems with significant velocity shifts in broad Hβ, among which 7 are the best candidates for the hypothesized binaries, 4 are most likely due to broad-line variability in single BHs, and the rest are ambiguous. Continued spectroscopic observations of these candidates will easily strengthen or disprove these claims. We use the distribution of the observed accelerations (mostly non-detections) to place constraints on the abundance of such binary systems among the general quasar population. Excess variance in the velocity shift is inferred for observations separated by longer than 0.4 yr (quasar rest frame). Attributing all the excess to binary motion would imply that most of the quasars in this sample must be in binaries, that the inactive BH must be on average more massive than the active one, and that the binary separation is at most a few times the size of the BLR. However, if this excess variance is partly or largely due to long-term broad-line variability, the requirement of a large population of close binaries is much weakened or even disfavored for massive companions. Future time-domain spectroscopic surveys of normal quasars can provide vital prior information on the structure function of stochastic velocity shifts induced by broad-line variability in single BHs. Such surveys with improved spectral quality, increased time baseline, and more epochs can greatly improve the statistical constraints of this method on the general binary population in broad-line quasars, further shrink the allowed binary parameter space, and detect true sub-parsec binaries.« less

A systematic literature search to identify performance measure outcomes used in clinical studies of racehorses.

PubMed

Wylie, C E; Newton, J R

2018-05-01

Racing performance is often used as a measurable outcome variable in research studies investigating clinical diagnoses or interventions. However, the use of many different performance measures largely precludes conduct of meaningful comparative studies and, to date, those being used have not been collated. To systematically review the veterinary scientific literature for the use of racing performance as a measurable outcome variable in clinical studies of racehorses, collate and identify those most popular, and identify their advantages and disadvantages. Systematic literature search. The search criteria "((racing AND performance) AND (horses OR equidae))" were adapted for both MEDLINE and CAB Abstracts databases. Data were collected in standardised recording forms for binary, categorical and quantitative measures, and the use of performance indices. In total, 217 studies that described racing performance were identified, contributing 117 different performance measures. No one performance measure was used in all studies, despite 90.3% using more than one variable. Data regarding race starts and earnings were used most commonly, with 88.0% and 54.4% of studies including at least one measure of starts and earnings, respectively. Seventeen variables were used 10 times or more, with the top five comprising: 'return to racing', 'number of starts', 'days to first start', 'earnings per period of time' and 'earnings per start'. The search strategies may not have identified all relevant papers, introducing bias to the review. Performance indices have been developed to improve assessment of interventions; however, they are not widely adopted in the scientific literature. Use of the two most commonly identified measures, whether the horse returned to racing and number of starts over a defined period of time, would best facilitate future systematic reviews and meta-analyses in advance of the development of a gold-standard measure of race performance outcome. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.

Chandra reveals a black hole X-ray binary within the ultraluminous supernova remnant MF 16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, T. P.; Colbert, E. J. M.

2003-06-01

We present evidence, based on Chandra ACIS-S observations of the nearby spiral galaxy NGC 6946, that the extraordinary X-ray luminosity of the MF 16 supernova remnant actually arises in a black hole X-ray binary. This conclusion is drawn from the point-like nature of the X-ray source, its X-ray spectrum closely resembling the spectrum of other ultraluminous X-ray sources thought to be black hole X-ray binary systems, and the detection of rapid hard X-ray variability from the source. We briefly discuss the nature of the hard X-ray variability, and the origin of the extreme radio and optical luminosity of MF 16 in light of this identification.

The relationship between performance and flow state in tennis competition.

PubMed

Koehn, S; Morris, T

2012-08-01

The study aimed to examine 1) the validity of the nine-factor flow model in tennis competition; 2) differences in flow state between athletes who won or lost their competition match; 3) the link between flow and subjective performance; and 4) flow dimensions as predictors of performance outcome The sample consisted of 188 junior tennis players (115 male, 73 female) between 12 and 18 years of age. Participants' performance was recorded during junior ranking-list tournaments. Following the completion of a tennis competition match, participants completed the Flow State Scale-2 and a subjective performance outcome measure. Acceptable flow model fit indices of CFI, TLI, SRMR, and RMSEA were only found for winning athletes. The group of winning athletes scored significantly higher on all nine flow dimensions, except time transformation, than losing athletes, showing statistically significant differences for challenge-skills balance, clear goals, sense of control, and autotelic experience. Significant correlation coefficients were found between flow state and subjective performance assessments. The binary logistic regression revealed concentration on the task and sense of control to be significant predictors of performance outcome. The predictor variables explained 13% of the variance in games won. The study showed that athletes who win or lose perceived flow state differently. Studies using retrospective assessments need to be aware that subjective experience could be biased by performance outcomes. Pinpointing psychological variables and their impact on ecologically valid measures, such as performance results, would support the development of effective intervention studies to increase performance in sport competition.

Pulsed Accretion in the T Tauri Binary TWA 3A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tofflemire, Benjamin M.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Herczeg, Gregory J.

TWA 3A is the most recent addition to a small group of young binary systems that both actively accrete from a circumbinary disk and have spectroscopic orbital solutions. As such, it provides a unique opportunity to test binary accretion theory in a well-constrained setting. To examine TWA 3A’s time-variable accretion behavior, we have conducted a two-year, optical photometric monitoring campaign, obtaining dense orbital phase coverage (∼20 observations per orbit) for ∼15 orbital periods. From U -band measurements we derive the time-dependent binary mass accretion rate, finding bursts of accretion near each periastron passage. On average, these enhanced accretion events evolvemore » over orbital phases 0.85 to 1.05, reaching their peak at periastron. The specific accretion rate increases above the quiescent value by a factor of ∼4 on average but the peak can be as high as an order of magnitude in a given orbit. The phase dependence and amplitude of TWA 3A accretion is in good agreement with numerical simulations of binary accretion with similar orbital parameters. In these simulations, periastron accretion bursts are fueled by periodic streams of material from the circumbinary disk that are driven by the binary orbit. We find that TWA 3A’s average accretion behavior is remarkably similar to DQ Tau, another T Tauri binary with similar orbital parameters, but with significantly less variability from orbit to orbit. This is only the second clear case of orbital-phase-dependent accretion in a T Tauri binary.« less

Prognostic grouping of metastatic prostate cancer using conventional pretreatment prognostic factors.

PubMed

Mikkola, Arto; Aro, Jussi; Rannikko, Sakari; Ruutu, Mirja

2009-01-01

To develop three prognostic groups for disease specific mortality based on the binary classified pretreatment variables age, haemoglobin concentration (Hb), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), plasma testosterone and estradiol level in hormonally treated patients with metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). The present study comprised 200 Finnprostate 6 study patients, but data on all variables were not known for every patient. The patients were divided into three prognostic risk groups (Rgs) using the prognostically best set of pretreatment variables. The best set was found by backward stepwise selection and the effect of every excluded variable on the binary classification cut-off points of the remaining variables was checked and corrected when needed. The best group of variables was ALP, PSA, ESR and age. All data were known in 142 patients. Patients were given one risk point each for ALP > 180 U/l (normal value 60-275 U/l), PSA > 35 microg/l, ESR > 80 mm/h and age < 60 years. Three risk groups were formed: Rg-a (0-1 risk points), Rg-b (2 risk points) and Rg-c (3-4 risk points). The risk of death from PCa increased statistically significantly with advancing prognostic group. Patients with metastatic PCa can be divided into three statistically significantly different prognostic risk groups for PCa-specific mortality by using the binary classified pretreatment variables ALP, PSA, ESR and age.

A Binary Nature of the Marginal CP Star Sigma Sculptoris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janík, Jan; Krtička, Jiří; Mikulášek, Zdeněk; Zverko, Juraj; Pintado, Olga; Paunzen, Ernst; Prvák, Milan; Skalický, Jan; Zejda, Miloslav; Adam, Christian

2018-05-01

The A2 V star σ Scl was suspected of being a low-amplitude rotating variable of the Ap-type star by several authors. Aiming to decide whether the star is a variable chemically peculiar (CP) star, we searched for the photometric and spectroscopic variability, and determined chemical abundances of σ Scl. The possible variability was tested using several types of periodograms applied to the photometry from Long-Term Photometry of Variables project (LTPV) and Hipparcos. Sixty spectrograms of high signal-to-noise (S/N) were obtained and used for chemical analysis of the stellar atmosphere and for looking for spectral variability that is symptomatic for the CP stars. We did not find any signs of the light variability or prominent chemical peculiarity, that is specific for the CP stars. The only exception is the abundance of scandium, which is significantly lower than the solar one and yttrium and barium, which are strongly overabundant. As a by-product of the analysis, and with the addition of 29 further spectra, we found that σ Scl is a single-lined spectroscopic binary with orbital period of 46.877(8) d. We argue that σ Scl is not an Ap star, but rather a marginal Am star in SB1 system. The spectral energy distribution of the binary reveals infrared excess due to circumstellar material.

Measuring Networking as an Outcome Variable in Undergraduate Research Experiences

PubMed Central

Hanauer, David I.; Hatfull, Graham

2015-01-01

The aim of this paper is to propose, present, and validate a simple survey instrument to measure student conversational networking. The tool consists of five items that cover personal and professional social networks, and its basic principle is the self-reporting of degrees of conversation, with a range of specific discussion partners. The networking instrument was validated in three studies. The basic psychometric characteristics of the scales were established by conducting a factor analysis and evaluating internal consistency using Cronbach’s alpha. The second study used a known-groups comparison and involved comparing outcomes for networking scales between two different undergraduate laboratory courses (one involving a specific effort to enhance networking). The final study looked at potential relationships between specific networking items and the established psychosocial variable of project ownership through a series of binary logistic regressions. Overall, the data from the three studies indicate that the networking scales have high internal consistency (α = 0.88), consist of a unitary dimension, can significantly differentiate between research experiences with low and high networking designs, and are related to project ownership scales. The ramifications of the networking instrument for student retention, the enhancement of public scientific literacy, and the differentiation of laboratory courses are discussed. PMID:26538387

The optical counterpart to the Be/X-ray binary SAX J2239.3+6116

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reig, P.; Blay, P.; Blinov, D.

2017-02-01

Context. Be/X-ray binaries represent the main group of high-mass X-ray binaries. The determination of the astrophysical parameters of the counterparts of these high-energy sources is important for the study of X-ray binary populations in our Galaxy. X-ray observations suggest that SAX J2239.3+6116 is a Be/X-ray binary. However, little is known about the astrophysical parameters of its massive companion. Aims: The main goal of this work is to perform a detailed study of the optical variability of the Be/X-ray binary SAX J2239.3+6116. Methods: We obtained multi-colour BVRI photometry and polarimetry and 4000-7000 Å spectroscopy. The 4000-5000 Å spectra allowed us to determine the spectral type and projected rotational velocity of the optical companion; the 6000-7000 Å spectra, together with the photometric magnitudes, were used to derive the colour excess E(B-V), estimate the distance, and to study the variability of the Hα line. Results: The optical counterpart to SAX J2239.3+6116 is a V = 14.8 B0Ve star located at a distance of 4.9 kpc. The interstellar reddening in the direction of the source is E(B-V) = 1.70 ± 0.03 mag. The monitoring of the Hα line reveals a slow long-term decline of its equivalent width since 2001. The line profile is characterized by a stable double-peak profile with no indication of large-scale distortions. We measured intrinsic optical polarization for the first time. Although somewhat higher than predicted by the models, the optical polarization is consistent with electron scattering in the circumstellar disk. Conclusions: We attribute the long-term decrease in the intensity of the Hα line to the dissipation of the circumstellar disk of the Be star. The longer variability timescales observed in SAX J2239.3+6116 compared to other Be/X-ray binaries may be explained by the wide orbit of the system.

Joint analysis of binary and quantitative traits with data sharing and outcome-dependent sampling.

PubMed

Zheng, Gang; Wu, Colin O; Kwak, Minjung; Jiang, Wenhua; Joo, Jungnam; Lima, Joao A C

2012-04-01

We study the analysis of a joint association between a genetic marker with both binary (case-control) and quantitative (continuous) traits, where the quantitative trait values are only available for the cases due to data sharing and outcome-dependent sampling. Data sharing becomes common in genetic association studies, and the outcome-dependent sampling is the consequence of data sharing, under which a phenotype of interest is not measured for some subgroup. The trend test (or Pearson's test) and F-test are often, respectively, used to analyze the binary and quantitative traits. Because of the outcome-dependent sampling, the usual F-test can be applied using the subgroup with the observed quantitative traits. We propose a modified F-test by also incorporating the genotype frequencies of the subgroup whose traits are not observed. Further, a combination of this modified F-test and Pearson's test is proposed by Fisher's combination of their P-values as a joint analysis. Because of the correlation of the two analyses, we propose to use a Gamma (scaled chi-squared) distribution to fit the asymptotic null distribution for the joint analysis. The proposed modified F-test and the joint analysis can also be applied to test single trait association (either binary or quantitative trait). Through simulations, we identify the situations under which the proposed tests are more powerful than the existing ones. Application to a real dataset of rheumatoid arthritis is presented. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Unusual Binary Pulsar PSR J1744-3922: Radio Flux Variability, Near-Infrared Observation, and Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breton, R. P.; Roberts, M. S. E.; Ransom, S. M.; Kaspi, V. M.; Durant, M.; Bergeron, P.; Faulkner, A. J.

2007-06-01

PSR J1744-3922 is a binary pulsar exhibiting highly variable pulsed radio emission. We report on a statistical multifrequency study of the pulsed radio flux variability which suggests that this phenomenon is extrinsic to the pulsar and possibly tied to the companion, although not strongly correlated with orbital phase. The pulsar has an unusual combination of characteristics compared to typical recycled pulsars: a long spin period (172 ms); a relatively high magnetic field strength (1.7×1010 G); a very circular, compact orbit of 4.6 hr; and a low-mass companion (0.08 Msolar). These spin and orbital properties are likely inconsistent with standard evolutionary models. We find similarities between the properties of the PSR J1744-3922 system and those of several other known binary pulsar systems, motivating the identification of a new class of binary pulsars. We suggest that this new class could result from: a standard accretion scenario of a magnetar or a high magnetic field pulsar; common envelope evolution with a low-mass star and a neutron star, similar to what is expected for ultracompact X-ray binaries; or accretion induced collapse of a white dwarf. We also report the detection of a possible K'=19.30(15) infrared counterpart at the position of the pulsar, which is relatively bright if the companion is a helium white dwarf at the nominal distance, and discuss its implications for the pulsar's companion and evolutionary history.

Spectroscopic classification of X-ray sources in the Galactic Bulge Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wevers, T.; Torres, M. A. P.; Jonker, P. G.; Nelemans, G.; Heinke, C.; Mata Sánchez, D.; Johnson, C. B.; Gazer, R.; Steeghs, D. T. H.; Maccarone, T. J.; Hynes, R. I.; Casares, J.; Udalski, A.; Wetuski, J.; Britt, C. T.; Kostrzewa-Rutkowska, Z.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.

2017-10-01

We present the classification of 26 optical counterparts to X-ray sources discovered in the Galactic Bulge Survey. We use (time-resolved) photometric and spectroscopic observations to classify the X-ray sources based on their multiwavelength properties. We find a variety of source classes, spanning different phases of stellar/binary evolution. We classify CX21 as a quiescent cataclysmic variable (CV) below the period gap, and CX118 as a high accretion rate (nova-like) CV. CXB12 displays excess UV emission, and could contain a compact object with a giant star companion, making it a candidate symbiotic binary or quiescent low-mass X-ray binary (although other scenarios cannot be ruled out). CXB34 is a magnetic CV (polar) that shows photometric evidence for a change in accretion state. The magnetic classification is based on the detection of X-ray pulsations with a period of 81 ± 2 min. CXB42 is identified as a young stellar object, namely a weak-lined T Tauri star exhibiting (to date unexplained) UX Ori-like photometric variability. The optical spectrum of CXB43 contains two (resolved) unidentified double-peaked emission lines. No known scenario, such as an active galactic nucleus or symbiotic binary, can easily explain its characteristics. We additionally classify 20 objects as likely active stars based on optical spectroscopy, their X-ray to optical flux ratios and photometric variability. In four cases we identify the sources as binary stars.

TEMPORAL CORRELATION OF CLASSIFICATIONS IN REMOTE SENSING

EPA Science Inventory

A bivariate binary model is developed for estimating the change in land cover from satellite images obtained at two different times. The binary classifications of a pixel at the two times are modeled as potentially correlated random variables, conditional on the true states of th...

Observations of candidate oscillating eclipsing binaries and two newly discovered pulsating variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liakos, A.; Niarchos, P.

2009-03-01

CCD observations of 24 eclipsing binary systems with spectral types ranging between A0-F0, candidate for containing pulsating components, were obtained. Appropriate exposure times in one or more photometric filters were used so that short-periodic pulsations could be detected. Their light curves were analyzed using the Period04 software in order to search for pulsational behaviour. Two new variable stars, namely GSC 2673-1583 and GSC 3641-0359, were discov- ered as by-product during the observations of eclipsing variables. The Fourier analysis of the observations of each star, the dominant pulsation frequencies and the derived frequency spectra are also presented.

The structure of common-envelope remnants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Philip D.

2015-05-01

We investigate the structure and evolution of the remnants of common-envelope evolution in binary star systems. In a common-envelope phase, two stars become engulfed in a gaseous envelope and, under the influence of drag forces, spiral to smaller separations. They may merge to form a single star or the envelope may be ejected to leave the stars in a shorter period orbit. This process explains the short orbital periods of many observed binary systems, such as cataclysmic variables and low-mass X-ray binary systems. Despite the importance of these systems, and of common-envelope evolution to their formation, it remains poorly understood. Specifically, we are unable to confidently predict the outcome of a common-envelope phase from the properties at its onset. After presenting a review of work on stellar evolution, binary systems, common-envelope evolution and the computer programs used, we describe the results of three computational projects on common-envelope evolution. Our work specifically relates to the methods and prescriptions which are used for predicting the outcome. We use the Cambridge stellar-evolution code STARS to produce detailed models of the structure and evolution of remnants of common-envelope evolution. We compare different assumptions about the uncertain end-of-common envelope structure and envelope mass of remnants which successfully eject their common envelopes. In the first project, we use detailed remnant models to investigate whether planetary nebulae are predicted after common-envelope phases initiated by low-mass red giants. We focus on the requirement that a remnant evolves rapidly enough to photoionize the nebula and compare the predictions for different ideas about the structure at the end of a common-envelope phase. We find that planetary nebulae are possible for some prescriptions for the end-of-common envelope structure. In our second contribution, we compute a large set of single-star models and fit new formulae to the core radii of evolved stars. These formulae can be used to better compute the outcome of common-envelope evolution with rapid evolution codes. We find that the new formulae are necessary for accurate predictions of the properties of post-common envelope systems. Finally, we use detailed remnant models of massive stars to investigate whether hydrogen may be retained after a common-envelope phase to the point of core-collapse and so be observable in supernovae. We find that this is possible and thus common-envelope evolution may contribute to the formation of Type IIb supernovae.

Longitudinal Average Attributable Fraction as a Method for Studying Time-Varying Conditions and Treatments on Recurrent Self-rated Health: The Case of Medications in Older Adults with Multiple Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

Allore, Heather G.; Zhan, Yilei; Tinetti, Mary; Trentalange, Mark; McAvay, Gail

2015-01-01

Purpose The objective is to modify the longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction (LE-AAF) for recurrent outcomes with time-varying exposures and control for covariates. Methods We included Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey participants with two or more chronic conditions enrolled from 2005-2009 with follow-up through 2011. Nine time-varying medications indicated for nine time-varying common chronic conditions and 14 out of 18 forward-selected participant characteristics were used as control variables in the generalized estimating equations step of the LE-AAF to estimate associations with the recurrent universal health outcome self-rated health (SRH). Modifications of the LE-AAF were made to accommodate these indicated medication-condition interactions and covariates. Variability was empirically estimated by bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrapping. Results In the adjusted LE-AAF, thiazide, warfarin and clopidogrel had significant contributions of 1.2%, 0.4%, 0.2% respectively to low (poor or fair) SRH; while there were no significant contributions of the other medications to SRH. Hyperlipidemia significantly contributed 4.6% to high SRH. All the other conditions except atrial fibrillation contributed significantly to low SRH. Conclusions Our modifications to the LE-AAF method apply to a recurrent binary outcome with time-varying factors accounting for covariates. PMID:26033374

An attentional drift diffusion model over binary-attribute choice.

PubMed

Fisher, Geoffrey

2017-11-01

In order to make good decisions, individuals need to identify and properly integrate information about various attributes associated with a choice. Since choices are often complex and made rapidly, they are typically affected by contextual variables that are thought to influence how much attention is paid to different attributes. I propose a modification of the attentional drift-diffusion model, the binary-attribute attentional drift diffusion model (baDDM), which describes the choice process over simple binary-attribute choices and how it is affected by fluctuations in visual attention. Using an eye-tracking experiment, I find the baDDM makes accurate quantitative predictions about several key variables including choices, reaction times, and how these variables are correlated with attention to two attributes in an accept-reject decision. Furthermore, I estimate an attribute-based fixation bias that suggests attention to an attribute increases its subjective weight by 5%, while the unattended attribute's weight is decreased by 10%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Detailed Study of the Variable Stars in Five Galactic Globular Clusters: IC4499, NGC4833, NGC6171 (M107), NGC6402 (M14), and NGC6584

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Brian W.; Darragh, Andrew; Hettinger, Paul; Hibshman, Adam; Johnson, Elliott W.; Liu, Z. J.; Pajkos, Michael A.; Stephenson, Hunter R.; Vondersaar, John R.; Conroy, Kyle E.; McCombs, Thayne A.; Reinhardt, Erik D.; Toddy, Joseph

2015-08-01

We present the results of an extensive study intended to search for and properly classify the variable stars in five galactic globular clusters. Each of the five clusters was observed hundreds to thousands of times over a time span ranging from 2 to 4 years using the SARA 0.6m located at Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory. The images were analyzed using the image subtract method of Alard (2000) to identify and produce light curves of all variables found in each cluster. In total we identified 373 variables with 140 of these being newly discovered increasing the number of known variables stars in these clusters by 60%. Of the total we have identified 312 RR Lyrae variables (187 RR0, 18 RR01, 99 RR1, 8 RR2), 9 SX Phe stars, 6 Cepheid variables, 11 eclipsing variables, and 35 long period variables. For IC4499 we identified 64 RR0, 18 RR01, 14 RR1, 4 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 1 eclipsing binary, and 2 long period variables. For NGC4833 we identified 10 RR0, 7 RR1, 2 RR2, 6 SX Phe, 5 eclipsing binaries, and 9 long period variables. For NGC6171 (M107) we identified 13 RR0, 7 RR1, and 1 SX Phe. For NGC6402 (M14) we identified 52 RR0, 56 RR1, 1 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 6 Cepheids, 1 eclipsing binary, and 15 long period variables. For NGC6584 we identified 48 RR0, 15 RR1, 1 RR2, 5 eclipsing binaries, and 9 long period variables. Using the RR Lyrae variables we found the mean V magnitude of the horizontal branch to be VHB = ⟨V ⟩RR = 17.63, 15.51, 15.72, 17.13, and 16.37 magnitudes for IC4499, NGC4833, NGC6171 (M107), NGC6402 (M14), and NGC6584, respectively. From our extensive data set we were able to obtain sufficient temporal and complete phase coverage of the RR Lyrae variables. This has allowed us not only to properly classify each of the RR Lyrae variables but also to use Fourier decomposition of the light curves to further analyze the properties of the variable stars and hence physical properties of each clusters. In this poster we will give the temperature, radius, stellar mass, metallicity, and helium abundance of the set of RR Lyrae variable stars found in each of the five globular clusters.

Predictor Combination in Binary Decision-Making Situations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGrath, Robert E.

2008-01-01

Professional psychologists are often confronted with the task of making binary decisions about individuals, such as predictions about future behavior or employee selection. Test users familiar with linear models and Bayes's theorem are likely to assume that the accuracy of decisions is consistently improved by combination of outcomes across valid…

The chemically peculiar double-lined spectroscopic binary HD 90264

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, C.; Torres, A. F.; Cidale, L. S.

2010-10-01

Context. HD 90264 is a chemically peculiar (CP) double-lined spectroscopic binary system of the type He-weak. Double-lined binaries are unique sources of data for stellar masses, physical properties, and evolutionary aspects of stars. Therefore, the determination of orbital elements is of great importance to study how the physical characteristics of CP stars are affected by a companion. Aims: We carried out a detailed spectral and polarimetric study of the spectroscopic binary system HD 90264 to characterize its orbit, determine the stellar masses, and investigate the spectral variability and possible polarization of the binary components. Methods: We employed medium-resolution échelle spectra and polarimetric data obtained at the 2.15-m telescope at CASLEO Observatory, Argentina. We measured radial velocities and line equivalent widths with IRAF packages. The radial velocity curves of both binary components were obtained combining radial velocity data derived from the single line of Hg II λ3984 Åand the double lines of Mg II λ4481 Å. Polarimetric data were studied by means of the statistical method of Clarke & Stewart and the Welch test. Results: We found that both components of the binary system are chemically peculiar stars, deficient in helium, where the primary is a He variable and the secondary is a Hg-Mn star. We derived for the first time the orbital parameters of the binary system. We found that the system has a quasi-circular orbit (e ~ 0.04) with an orbital period of 15.727 days. Taking into account the circular orbit solution, we derived a mass ratio of q = MHe-w/MHg-Mn = 1.22. We also found a rotational period of around 15-16 days, suggesting a spin-orbit synchronization. Possible signs of intrinsic polarization have also been detected. Conclusions: HD 90264 is the first known binary system comprised of a He variable star as the primary component and a Hg-Mn star as the secondary one. Based on observations taken at Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito (CASLEO), operated under an agreement between the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas de la República Argentina, the Secretaría de Ciencia y Tecnología de la Nación and the National Universities of La Plata, Córdoba and San Juan.

A transient radio jet in an erupting dwarf nova.

PubMed

Körding, Elmar; Rupen, Michael; Knigge, Christian; Fender, Rob; Dhawan, Vivek; Templeton, Matthew; Muxlow, Tom

2008-06-06

Astrophysical jets seem to occur in nearly all types of accreting objects, from supermassive black holes to young stellar objects. On the basis of x-ray binaries, a unified scenario describing the disc/jet coupling has evolved and been extended to many accreting objects. The only major exceptions are thought to be cataclysmic variables: Dwarf novae, weakly accreting white dwarfs, show similar outburst behavior to x-ray binaries, but no jet has yet been detected. Here we present radio observations of a dwarf nova in outburst showing variable flat-spectrum radio emission that is best explained as synchrotron emission originating in a transient jet. Both the inferred jet power and the relation to the outburst cycle are analogous to those seen in x-ray binaries, suggesting that the disc/jet coupling mechanism is ubiquitous.

Near-infrared variability study of the central 2.3 arcmin × 2.3 arcmin of the Galactic Centre - I. Catalogue of variable sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Hui; Schödel, Rainer; Williams, Benjamin F.; Nogueras-Lara, Francisco; Gallego-Cano, Eulalia; Gallego-Calvente, Teresa; Wang, Q. Daniel; Morris, Mark R.; Do, Tuan; Ghez, Andrea

2017-09-01

We used 4-yr baseline Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 IR observations of the Galactic Centre in the F153M band (1.53 μm) to identify variable stars in the central ∼2.3 arcmin × 2.3 arcmin field. We classified 3845 long-term (periods from months to years) and 76 short-term (periods of a few days or less) variables among a total sample of 33 070 stars. For 36 of the latter ones, we also derived their periods (<3 d). Our catalogue not only confirms bright long period variables and massive eclipsing binaries identified in previous works but also contains many newly recognized dim variable stars. For example, we found δ Scuti and RR Lyrae stars towards the Galactic Centre for the first time, as well as one BL Her star (period < 1.3 d). We cross-correlated our catalogue with previous spectroscopic studies and found that 319 variables have well-defined stellar types, such as Wolf-Rayet, OB main sequence, supergiants and asymptotic giant branch stars. We used colours and magnitudes to infer the probable variable types for those stars without accurately measured periods or spectroscopic information. We conclude that the majority of unclassified variables could potentially be eclipsing/ellipsoidal binaries and Type II Cepheids. Our source catalogue will be valuable for future studies aimed at constraining the distance, star formation history and massive binary fraction of the Milky Way nuclear star cluster.

Periodic Emission from the Gamma-ray Binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celic, O.; Corbet, R. H. D.; Donato, D.; Ferrara, E. C.; Gehrels, N.; Harding, A. K.; Hays, E.; McEnery, J. E.; Thompson, D. J.; Troja, E.

2012-01-01

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems containing a neutron star or black hole with gamma-ray emission produced by an interaction between the components. These systems are rare, even though binary evolution models predict dozens in our Galaxy. A search for gamma-ray binaries with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) shows that IFGL JI018.6-5856 exhibits intensity and spectral modulation with a 16.6 day period. We identified a variable X-ray counterpart, which shows a sharp maximum coinciding with maximum gamma-ray emission, as well as an 06V f) star optical counterpart and a radio counterpart that is also apparently modulated on the orbital period. IFGL J1018.6-5856 is thus a gamma-ray binary, and its detection suggests the presence of other fainter binaries in the Galaxy.

Periodic emission from the gamma-ray binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856.

PubMed

Fermi LAT Collaboration; Ackermann, M; Ajello, M; Ballet, J; Barbiellini, G; Bastieri, D; Belfiore, A; Bellazzini, R; Berenji, B; Blandford, R D; Bloom, E D; Bonamente, E; Borgland, A W; Bregeon, J; Brigida, M; Bruel, P; Buehler, R; Buson, S; Caliandro, G A; Cameron, R A; Caraveo, P A; Cavazzuti, E; Cecchi, C; Çelik, Ö; Charles, E; Chaty, S; Chekhtman, A; Cheung, C C; Chiang, J; Ciprini, S; Claus, R; Cohen-Tanugi, J; Corbel, S; Corbet, R H D; Cutini, S; de Luca, A; den Hartog, P R; de Palma, F; Dermer, C D; Digel, S W; do Couto e Silva, E; Donato, D; Drell, P S; Drlica-Wagner, A; Dubois, R; Dubus, G; Favuzzi, C; Fegan, S J; Ferrara, E C; Focke, W B; Fortin, P; Fukazawa, Y; Funk, S; Fusco, P; Gargano, F; Gasparrini, D; Gehrels, N; Germani, S; Giglietto, N; Giordano, F; Giroletti, M; Glanzman, T; Godfrey, G; Grenier, I A; Grove, J E; Guiriec, S; Hadasch, D; Hanabata, Y; Harding, A K; Hayashida, M; Hays, E; Hill, A B; Hughes, R E; Jóhannesson, G; Johnson, A S; Johnson, T J; Kamae, T; Katagiri, H; Kataoka, J; Kerr, M; Knödlseder, J; Kuss, M; Lande, J; Longo, F; Loparco, F; Lovellette, M N; Lubrano, P; Mazziotta, M N; McEnery, J E; Michelson, P F; Mitthumsiri, W; Mizuno, T; Monte, C; Monzani, M E; Morselli, A; Moskalenko, I V; Murgia, S; Nakamori, T; Naumann-Godo, M; Norris, J P; Nuss, E; Ohno, M; Ohsugi, T; Okumura, A; Omodei, N; Orlando, E; Ozaki, M; Paneque, D; Parent, D; Pesce-Rollins, M; Pierbattista, M; Piron, F; Pivato, G; Porter, T A; Rainò, S; Rando, R; Razzano, M; Reimer, A; Reimer, O; Ritz, S; Romani, R W; Roth, M; Saz Parkinson, P M; Sgrò, C; Siskind, E J; Spandre, G; Spinelli, P; Suson, D J; Takahashi, H; Tanaka, T; Thayer, J G; Thayer, J B; Thompson, D J; Tibaldo, L; Tinivella, M; Torres, D F; Tosti, G; Troja, E; Uchiyama, Y; Usher, T L; Vandenbroucke, J; Vianello, G; Vitale, V; Waite, A P; Winer, B L; Wood, K S; Wood, M; Yang, Z; Zimmer, S; Coe, M J; Di Mille, F; Edwards, P G; Filipović, M D; Payne, J L; Stevens, J; Torres, M A P

2012-01-13

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems containing a neutron star or black hole, with gamma-ray emission produced by an interaction between the components. These systems are rare, even though binary evolution models predict dozens in our Galaxy. A search for gamma-ray binaries with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) shows that 1FGL J1018.6-5856 exhibits intensity and spectral modulation with a 16.6-day period. We identified a variable x-ray counterpart, which shows a sharp maximum coinciding with maximum gamma-ray emission, as well as an O6V((f)) star optical counterpart and a radio counterpart that is also apparently modulated on the orbital period. 1FGL J1018.6-5856 is thus a gamma-ray binary, and its detection suggests the presence of other fainter binaries in the Galaxy.

Periodic Emission from the Gamma-Ray Binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems containing a neutron star or black hole, with gamma-ray emission produced by an interaction between the components. These systems are rare, even though binary evolution models predict dozens in our Galaxy, A search for gamma-ray binaries with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) shows that 1FGL ]1018.6-5856 exhibits intensity and spectral modulation with a 16.6 day period. We identified a variable x-ray counterpart, which shows a sharp maximum coinciding with maximum gamma-ray emission, as well as an O6V((f)) star optical counterpart and a radio counterpart that is also apparently modulated on the orbital period. 1FGL ]1018.6-5856 is thus a gamma-ray binary, and its detection suggests the presence of other fainter binaries in the Galaxy.

The disruption of multiplanet systems through resonance with a binary orbit.

PubMed

Touma, Jihad R; Sridhar, S

2015-08-27

Most exoplanetary systems in binary stars are of S-type, and consist of one or more planets orbiting a primary star with a wide binary stellar companion. Planetary eccentricities and mutual inclinations can be large, perhaps forced gravitationally by the binary companion. Earlier work on single planet systems appealed to the Kozai-Lidov instability wherein a sufficiently inclined binary orbit excites large-amplitude oscillations in the planet's eccentricity and inclination. The instability, however, can be quenched by many agents that induce fast orbital precession, including mutual gravitational forces in a multiplanet system. Here we report that orbital precession, which inhibits Kozai-Lidov cycling in a multiplanet system, can become fast enough to resonate with the orbital motion of a distant binary companion. Resonant binary forcing results in dramatic outcomes ranging from the excitation of large planetary eccentricities and mutual inclinations to total disruption. Processes such as planetary migration can bring an initially non-resonant system into resonance. As it does not require special physical or initial conditions, binary resonant driving is generic and may have altered the architecture of many multiplanet systems. It can also weaken the multiplanet occurrence rate in wide binaries, and affect planet formation in close binaries.

A Comparison of Grid-based and SPH Binary Mass-transfer and Merger Simulations

DOE PAGES

Motl, Patrick M.; Frank, Juhan; Staff, Jan; ...

2017-03-29

There is currently a great amount of interest in the outcomes and astrophysical implications of mergers of double degenerate binaries. In a commonly adopted approximation, the components of such binaries are represented by polytropes with an index of n = 3/2. We present detailed comparisons of stellar mass-transfer and merger simulations of polytropic binaries that have been carried out using two very different numerical algorithms—a finite-volume "grid" code and a smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) code. We find that there is agreement in both the ultimate outcomes of the evolutions and the intermediate stages if the initial conditions for each code aremore » chosen to match as closely as possible. We find that even with closely matching initial setups, the time it takes to reach a concordant evolution differs between the two codes because the initial depth of contact cannot be matched exactly. There is a general tendency for SPH to yield higher mass transfer rates and faster evolution to the final outcome. Here, we also present comparisons of simulations calculated from two different energy equations: in one series, we assume a polytropic equation of state and in the other series an ideal gas equation of state. In the latter series of simulations, an atmosphere forms around the accretor, which can exchange angular momentum and cause a more rapid loss of orbital angular momentum. In the simulations presented here, the effect of the ideal equation of state is to de-stabilize the binary in both SPH and grid simulations, but the effect is more pronounced in the grid code.« less

Associating long-term γ-ray variability with the superorbital period of LS I +61°303

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Ballet, J.; ...

2013-08-07

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the γ-ray binary LS I +61°303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the ~26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the γ-ray emission of LS I +61°303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation is more prominently seen atmore » orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. Furthermore, these findings open the possibility to use γ-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.« less

ASSOCIATING LONG-TERM {gamma}-RAY VARIABILITY WITH THE SUPERORBITAL PERIOD OF LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; Buehler, R.; Ajello, M.

2013-08-20

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the {gamma}-ray binary LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the {approx}26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the {gamma}-ray emission of LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation ismore » more prominently seen at orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. These findings open the possibility to use {gamma}-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.« less

The Clusters AgeS Experiment (CASE). Variable Stars in the Field of the Globular Cluster NGC 3201

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaluzny, J.; Rozyczka, M.; Thompson, I. B.; Narloch, W.; Mazur, B.; Pych, W.; Schwarzenberg-Czerny, A.

2016-01-01

The field of the globular cluster NGC 3201 was monitored between 1998 and 2009 in a search for variable stars. BV light curves were obtained for 152 periodic or likely periodic variables, fifty-seven of which are new detections. Thirty-seven newly detected variables are proper motion members of the cluster. Among them we found seven detached or semi-detached eclipsing binaries, four contact binaries, and eight SX Phe pulsators. Four of the eclipsing binaries are located in the turnoff region, one on the lower main sequence and the remaining two slightly above the subgiant branch. Two contact systems are blue stragglers, and another two reside in the turnoff region. In the blue straggler region a total of 266 objects were found, of which 140 are proper motion (PM) members of NGC 3201, and another nineteen are field stars. Seventy-eight of the remaining objects for which we do not have PM data are located within the half-light radius from the center of the cluster, and most of them are likely genuine blue stragglers. Four variable objects in our field of view were found to coincide with X-ray sources: three chromospherically active stars and a quasar at a redshift z≍0.5.

An environmental tolerance index for ostracodes as indicators of physical and chemical factors in aquatic habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curry, B. Brandon

1999-01-01

Continental ostracode occurrences reflect salinity, solute composition, temperature, flow conditions, and other environmental properties of the water they inhabit. Their occurrences also reflect the variability of many of these environmental parameters. Environmental tolerance indices (ETIs) offer a new way to express the nature of an ostracode's environment. As defined herein, ETIs range in value from zero to one, and may be calculated for continuous and binary variables. For continuous variables such as salinity, the ETI is the ratio of the range of values of salinity tolerated by an ostracode to the total range of salinity values from a representative database. In this investigation, the database of continuous variables consists of information from 341 sites located throughout the United States. Binary ETIs indicate whether an environmental variable such as flowing water affects ostracode presence or absence. The binary database consists of information from 784 sites primarily from Illinois, USA. ETIs were developed in this investigation to interpret paleohydrological changes implied by fossil ostracode successions. ETI profiles may be cast in terms of a weighted average, or on presence/absence. The profiles express ostracode tolerance of environmental parameters such as salinity or currents. Tolerance of a wide range of values is taken to indicate shallow water because shallow environments are conducive to thermal variability, short-term water residence, and the development of currents from wind-driven waves.

Mobility one week after a hip fracture - can it be predicted?

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Michelle; Blake, Catherine; Askin, David; Quinlan, John; Coughlan, Tara; Cunningham, Caitriona

2018-05-01

Better patient outcomes and more efficient healthcare could be achieved by predicting post hip fracture function at an early stage. This study aimed to identify independent predictors of mobility outcome one week post hip fracture surgery. All hip fracture inpatients (n=77) were included in this 6 month prospective observational cohort study. Predictor variables were obtained on the first postoperative day and included premorbid function using the New Mobility Score (NMS). Mobility outcome measures one week postoperatively included the Cumulated Ambulatory Score (CAS). Data were analysed with SPSS using binary multiple logistic regression analysis RESULTS: Patients who fell outdoors (OR 3.848; 95% CI, 1.053-14.061), had no delay to surgery (OR 5.472; 95% CI, 1.073-27.907) and had high pre-fracture function (OR3.366; 95% CI, 1.042-10.879) were predicted to achieve independent mobility (CAS = 6) one week postoperatively. Fall location, time to surgery and baseline function predict independent mobility one week after hip fracture, and can be used for early rehabilitation stratification. The NMS and CAS are recommended as standardised hip fracture clinical measures. Orthogeriatric and physiotherapy service initiatives may improve early functional outcome. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Proposed experiment to test fundamentally binary theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinmann, Matthias; Vértesi, Tamás; Cabello, Adán

2017-09-01

Fundamentally binary theories are nonsignaling theories in which measurements of many outcomes are constructed by selecting from binary measurements. They constitute a sensible alternative to quantum theory and have never been directly falsified by any experiment. Here we show that fundamentally binary theories are experimentally testable with current technology. For that, we identify a feasible Bell-type experiment on pairs of entangled qutrits. In addition, we prove that, for any n , quantum n -ary correlations are not fundamentally (n -1 ) -ary. For that, we introduce a family of inequalities that hold for fundamentally (n -1 ) -ary theories but are violated by quantum n -ary correlations.

Luminous Binary Supersoft X-Ray Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DiStefano, Rosanne; Oliversen, Ronald J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This grant was for the study of Luminous Supersoft X-Ray Sources (SSSs). During the first year a number of projects were completed and new projects were started. The projects include: 1) Time variability of SSSs 2) SSSs in M31; 3) Binary evolution scenarios; and 4) Acquiring new data.

Analysis of Binary Multivariate Longitudinal Data via 2-Dimensional Orbits: An Application to the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa

PubMed Central

Visaya, Maria Vivien; Sherwell, David; Sartorius, Benn; Cromieres, Fabien

2015-01-01

We analyse demographic longitudinal survey data of South African (SA) and Mozambican (MOZ) rural households from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa. In particular, we determine whether absolute poverty status (APS) is associated with selected household variables pertaining to socio-economic determination, namely household head age, household size, cumulative death, adults to minor ratio, and influx. For comparative purposes, households are classified according to household head nationality (SA or MOZ) and APS (rich or poor). The longitudinal data of each of the four subpopulations (SA rich, SA poor, MOZ rich, and MOZ poor) is a five-dimensional space defined by binary variables (questions), subjects, and time. We use the orbit method to represent binary multivariate longitudinal data (BMLD) of each household as a two-dimensional orbit and to visualise dynamics and behaviour of the population. At each time step, a point (x, y) from the orbit of a household corresponds to the observation of the household, where x is a binary sequence of responses and y is an ordering of variables. The ordering of variables is dynamically rearranged such that clusters and holes associated to least and frequently changing variables in the state space respectively, are exposed. Analysis of orbits reveals information of change at both individual- and population-level, change patterns in the data, capacity of states in the state space, and density of state transitions in the orbits. Analysis of household orbits of the four subpopulations show association between (i) households headed by older adults and rich households, (ii) large household size and poor households, and (iii) households with more minors than adults and poor households. Our results are compared to other methods of BMLD analysis. PMID:25919116

Determining accurate distances to nearby galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonanos, Alceste Zoe

2005-11-01

Determining accurate distances to nearby or distant galaxies is a very simple conceptually, yet complicated in practice, task. Presently, distances to nearby galaxies are only known to an accuracy of 10-15%. The current anchor galaxy of the extragalactic distance scale is the Large Magellanic Cloud, which has large (10-15%) systematic uncertainties associated with it, because of its morphology, its non-uniform reddening and the unknown metallicity dependence of the Cepheid period-luminosity relation. This work aims to determine accurate distances to some nearby galaxies, and subsequently help reduce the error in the extragalactic distance scale and the Hubble constant H 0 . In particular, this work presents the first distance determination of the DIRECT Project to M33 with detached eclipsing binaries. DIRECT aims to obtain a new anchor galaxy for the extragalactic distance scale by measuring direct, accurate (to 5%) distances to two Local Group galaxies, M31 and M33, with detached eclipsing binaries. It involves a massive variability survey of these galaxies and subsequent photometric and spectroscopic follow-up of the detached binaries discovered. In this work, I also present a catalog of variable stars discovered in one of the DIRECT fields, M31Y, which includes 41 eclipsing binaries. Additionally, we derive the distance to the Draco Dwarf Spheroidal galaxy, with ~100 RR Lyrae found in our first CCD variability study of this galaxy. A "hybrid" method of discovering Cepheids with ground-based telescopes is described next. It involves applying the image subtraction technique on the images obtained from ground-based telescopes and then following them up with the Hubble Space Telescope to derive Cepheid period-luminosity distances. By re-analyzing ESO Very Large Telescope data on M83 (NGC 5236), we demonstrate that this method is much more powerful for detecting variability, especially in crowded fields. I finally present photometry for the Wolf-Rayet binary WR 20a, which confirmed that the system consists of two extremely massive stars and refined the values of the masses. It is the most massive binary known with an accurate mass determination.

The Clusters AgeS Experiment (CASE). Variable Stars in the Field of the Globular Cluster NGC 6362

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaluzny, J.; Thompson, I. B.; Rozyczka, M.; Pych, W.; Narloch, W.

2014-12-01

The field of the globular cluster NGC 6362 was monitored between 1995 and 2009 in a search for variable stars. BV light curves were obtained for 69 periodic variable stars including 34 known RR Lyr stars, 10 known objects of other types and 25 newly detected variable stars. Among the latter we identified 18 proper-motion members of the cluster: seven detached eclipsing binaries (DEBs), six SX Phe stars, two W UMa binaries, two spotted red giants, and a very interesting eclipsing binary composed of two red giants - the first example of such a system found in a globular cluster. Five of the DEBs are located at the turnoff region, and the remaining two are redward of the lower main sequence. Eighty-four objects from the central 9×9 arcmin2 of the cluster were found in the region of cluster blue stragglers. Of these 70 are proper motion (PM) members of NGC 6362 (including all SX Phe and two W UMa stars), and five are field stars. The remaining nine objects lacking PM information are located at the very core of the cluster, and as such they are likely genuine blue stragglers.

Concurrent generation of multivariate mixed data with variables of dissimilar types.

PubMed

Amatya, Anup; Demirtas, Hakan

2016-01-01

Data sets originating from wide range of research studies are composed of multiple variables that are correlated and of dissimilar types, primarily of count, binary/ordinal and continuous attributes. The present paper builds on the previous works on multivariate data generation and develops a framework for generating multivariate mixed data with a pre-specified correlation matrix. The generated data consist of components that are marginally count, binary, ordinal and continuous, where the count and continuous variables follow the generalized Poisson and normal distributions, respectively. The use of the generalized Poisson distribution provides a flexible mechanism which allows under- and over-dispersed count variables generally encountered in practice. A step-by-step algorithm is provided and its performance is evaluated using simulated and real-data scenarios.

Body mass index and employment status: A new look.

PubMed

Kinge, Jonas Minet

2016-09-01

Earlier literature has usually modelled the impact of obesity on employment status as a binary choice (employed, yes/no). I provide new evidence on the impact of obesity on employment status by treating the dependent variable as a as a multinomial choice variable. Using data from a representative English survey, with measured height and weight on parents and children, I define employment status as one of four: working; looking for paid work; permanently not working due to disability; and, looking after home or family. I use a multinomial logit model controlling for a set of covariates. I also run instrumental variable models, instrumenting for Body Mass Index (BMI) based on genetic variation in weight. I find that BMI and obesity significantly increase the probability of "not working due to disability". The results for the other employment outcomes are less clear. My findings also indicate that BMI affects employment through its effect on health. Factors other than health may be less important in explaining the impact of BMI/obesity on employment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Sample Size and Other Factors When Estimating Multilevel Logistic Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoeneberger, Jason A.

2016-01-01

The design of research studies utilizing binary multilevel models must necessarily incorporate knowledge of multiple factors, including estimation method, variance component size, or number of predictors, in addition to sample sizes. This Monte Carlo study examined the performance of random effect binary outcome multilevel models under varying…

Small Sample Performance of Bias-corrected Sandwich Estimators for Cluster-Randomized Trials with Binary Outcomes

PubMed Central

Li, Peng; Redden, David T.

2014-01-01

SUMMARY The sandwich estimator in generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach underestimates the true variance in small samples and consequently results in inflated type I error rates in hypothesis testing. This fact limits the application of the GEE in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) with few clusters. Under various CRT scenarios with correlated binary outcomes, we evaluate the small sample properties of the GEE Wald tests using bias-corrected sandwich estimators. Our results suggest that the GEE Wald z test should be avoided in the analyses of CRTs with few clusters even when bias-corrected sandwich estimators are used. With t-distribution approximation, the Kauermann and Carroll (KC)-correction can keep the test size to nominal levels even when the number of clusters is as low as 10, and is robust to the moderate variation of the cluster sizes. However, in cases with large variations in cluster sizes, the Fay and Graubard (FG)-correction should be used instead. Furthermore, we derive a formula to calculate the power and minimum total number of clusters one needs using the t test and KC-correction for the CRTs with binary outcomes. The power levels as predicted by the proposed formula agree well with the empirical powers from the simulations. The proposed methods are illustrated using real CRT data. We conclude that with appropriate control of type I error rates under small sample sizes, we recommend the use of GEE approach in CRTs with binary outcomes due to fewer assumptions and robustness to the misspecification of the covariance structure. PMID:25345738

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data

PubMed Central

Riley, R. D.; Price, M. J.; Jackson, D.; Wardle, M.; Gueyffier, F.; Wang, J.; Staessen, J. A.; White, I. R.

2016-01-01

When combining results across related studies, a multivariate meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated effect estimates from multiple outcomes. Joint synthesis can improve efficiency over separate univariate syntheses, may reduce selective outcome reporting biases, and enables joint inferences across the outcomes. A common issue is that within-study correlations needed to fit the multivariate model are unknown from published reports. However, provision of individual participant data (IPD) allows them to be calculated directly. Here, we illustrate how to use IPD to estimate within-study correlations, using a joint linear regression for multiple continuous outcomes and bootstrapping methods for binary, survival and mixed outcomes. In a meta-analysis of 10 hypertension trials, we then show how these methods enable multivariate meta-analysis to address novel clinical questions about continuous, survival and binary outcomes; treatment–covariate interactions; adjusted risk/prognostic factor effects; longitudinal data; prognostic and multiparameter models; and multiple treatment comparisons. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied, with example software code provided to derive within-study correlations and to fit the models. PMID:26099484

International Ultraviolet Explorer observations of the peculiar variable spectrum of the eclipsing binary R Arae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccluskey, G. E.; Kondo, Y.

1983-01-01

The eclipsing binary system R Arae = HD 149730 is a relatively bright southern system with an orbital period of about 4.4 days. It is a single-lined spectroscopic binary. The spectral class of the primary component is B9 Vp. The system was included in a study of mass flow and evolution in close binary systems using the International Ultraviolet Explorer satellite (IUE). Four spectra in the wavelength range from 1150 to 1900 A were obtained with the far-ultraviolet SWP camera, and six spectra in the range from 1900 to 3200 range were obtained with the mid-ultraviolet LWR camera. The close binary R Arae exhibits very unusual ultraviolet spectra. It appears that no other close binary system, observed with any of the orbiting satellites, shows outside-eclipse ultraviolet continuum flux variations of this nature.

Periodic Emission from the Gamma-Ray Binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.

2012-01-12

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems containing a neutron star or black hole with gamma-ray emission produced by an interaction between the components. These systems are rare, even though binary evolution models predict dozens in our Galaxy. A search for gamma-ray binaries with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) shows that 1FGL J1018.6-5856 exhibits intensity and spectral modulation with a 16.6 day period. We identified a variable X-ray counterpart, which shows a sharp maximum coinciding with maximum gamma-ray emission, as well as an O6V((f)) star optical counterpart and a radio counterpart that is also apparently modulated on the orbital period. 1FGLmore » J1018.6-5856 is thus a gamma-ray binary, and its detection suggests the presence of other fainter binaries in the Galaxy.« less

Measuring In-Plane Displacements with Variable Sensitivity Using Diffractive Optic Interferometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Robert L.; Gilbert, John A.; Cole, Helen J.; Ashley, Paul R.

1998-01-01

This paper introduces a method called diffractive optic interferometry (DOI) which allows in-plane displacement components to be measured with variable sensitivity. DOI relies on binary optical elements fabricated as phase-type Dammann gratings which produce multiple diffraction orders of nearly equal intensity. Sensitivity is varied by combining the different wavefronts produced by a conjugate pair of these binary optical elements; a transmission element is used to produce several illumination beams while a reflective element, replicated on the surface of a specimen, provides the reference for the undeformed state. The steps taken to design and fabricate these binary optical elements are described. The specimen grating is characterized, and tested on a disk subjected to diametrical compression. Overall, the results are excellent, with experimental data agreeing to within a few percent of the theoretical predictions.

Missing binary data extraction challenges from Cochrane reviews in mental health and Campbell reviews with implications for empirical research.

PubMed

Spineli, Loukia M

2017-12-01

Tο report challenges encountered during the extraction process from Cochrane reviews in mental health and Campbell reviews and to indicate their implications on the empirical performance of different methods to handle missingness. We used a collection of meta-analyses on binary outcomes collated from a previous work on missing outcome data. To evaluate the accuracy of their extraction, we developed specific criteria pertaining to the reporting of missing outcome data in systematic reviews. Using the most popular methods to handle missing binary outcome data, we investigated the implications of the accuracy of the extracted meta-analysis on the random-effects meta-analysis results. Of 113 meta-analyses from Cochrane reviews, 60 (53%) were judged as "unclearly" extracted (ie, no information on the outcome of completers but available information on how missing participants were handled) and 42 (37%) as "unacceptably" extracted (ie, no information on the outcome of completers as well as no information on how missing participants were handled). For the remaining meta-analyses, it was judged that data were "acceptably" extracted (ie, information on the completers' outcome was provided for all trials). Overall, "unclear" extraction overestimated the magnitude of the summary odds ratio and the between-study variance and additionally inflated the uncertainty of both meta-analytical parameters. The only eligible Campbell review was judged as "unclear." Depending on the extent of missingness, the reporting quality of the systematic reviews can greatly affect the accuracy of the extracted meta-analyses and by extent, the empirical performance of different methods to handle missingness. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors Associated with HIV Testing Among Participants from Substance Use Disorder Treatment Programs in the US: A Machine Learning Approach.

PubMed

Pan, Yue; Liu, Hongmei; Metsch, Lisa R; Feaster, Daniel J

2017-02-01

HIV testing is the foundation for consolidated HIV treatment and prevention. In this study, we aim to discover the most relevant variables for predicting HIV testing uptake among substance users in substance use disorder treatment programs by applying random forest (RF), a robust multivariate statistical learning method. We also provide a descriptive introduction to this method for those who are unfamiliar with it. We used data from the National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network HIV testing and counseling study (CTN-0032). A total of 1281 HIV-negative or status unknown participants from 12 US community-based substance use disorder treatment programs were included and were randomized into three HIV testing and counseling treatment groups. The a priori primary outcome was self-reported receipt of HIV test results. Classification accuracy of RF was compared to logistic regression, a standard statistical approach for binary outcomes. Variable importance measures for the RF model were used to select the most relevant variables. RF based models produced much higher classification accuracy than those based on logistic regression. Treatment group is the most important predictor among all covariates, with a variable importance index of 12.9%. RF variable importance revealed that several types of condomless sex behaviors, condom use self-efficacy and attitudes towards condom use, and level of depression are the most important predictors of receipt of HIV testing results. There is a non-linear negative relationship between count of condomless sex acts and the receipt of HIV testing. In conclusion, RF seems promising in discovering important factors related to HIV testing uptake among large numbers of predictors and should be encouraged in future HIV prevention and treatment research and intervention program evaluations.

The dynamical mass of a classical Cepheid variable star in an eclipsing binary system.

PubMed

Pietrzyński, G; Thompson, I B; Gieren, W; Graczyk, D; Bono, G; Udalski, A; Soszyński, I; Minniti, D; Pilecki, B

2010-11-25

Stellar pulsation theory provides a means of determining the masses of pulsating classical Cepheid supergiants-it is the pulsation that causes their luminosity to vary. Such pulsational masses are found to be smaller than the masses derived from stellar evolution theory: this is the Cepheid mass discrepancy problem, for which a solution is missing. An independent, accurate dynamical mass determination for a classical Cepheid variable star (as opposed to type-II Cepheids, low-mass stars with a very different evolutionary history) in a binary system is needed in order to determine which is correct. The accuracy of previous efforts to establish a dynamical Cepheid mass from Galactic single-lined non-eclipsing binaries was typically about 15-30% (refs 6, 7), which is not good enough to resolve the mass discrepancy problem. In spite of many observational efforts, no firm detection of a classical Cepheid in an eclipsing double-lined binary has hitherto been reported. Here we report the discovery of a classical Cepheid in a well detached, double-lined eclipsing binary in the Large Magellanic Cloud. We determine the mass to a precision of 1% and show that it agrees with its pulsation mass, providing strong evidence that pulsation theory correctly and precisely predicts the masses of classical Cepheids.

Kinetics of binary nucleation of vapors in size and composition space.

PubMed

Fisenko, Sergey P; Wilemski, Gerald

2004-11-01

We reformulate the kinetic description of binary nucleation in the gas phase using two natural independent variables: the total number of molecules g and the molar composition x of the cluster. The resulting kinetic equation can be viewed as a two-dimensional Fokker-Planck equation describing the simultaneous Brownian motion of the clusters in size and composition space. Explicit expressions for the Brownian diffusion coefficients in cluster size and composition space are obtained. For characterization of binary nucleation in gases three criteria are established. These criteria establish the relative importance of the rate processes in cluster size and composition space for different gas phase conditions and types of liquid mixtures. The equilibrium distribution function of the clusters is determined in terms of the variables g and x. We obtain an approximate analytical solution for the steady-state binary nucleation rate that has the correct limit in the transition to unary nucleation. To further illustrate our description, the nonequilibrium steady-state cluster concentrations are found by numerically solving the reformulated kinetic equation. For the reformulated transient problem, the relaxation or induction time for binary nucleation was calculated using Galerkin's method. This relaxation time is affected by processes in both size and composition space, but the contributions from each process can be separated only approximately.

A novel variable selection approach that iteratively optimizes variable space using weighted binary matrix sampling.

PubMed

Deng, Bai-chuan; Yun, Yong-huan; Liang, Yi-zeng; Yi, Lun-zhao

2014-10-07

In this study, a new optimization algorithm called the Variable Iterative Space Shrinkage Approach (VISSA) that is based on the idea of model population analysis (MPA) is proposed for variable selection. Unlike most of the existing optimization methods for variable selection, VISSA statistically evaluates the performance of variable space in each step of optimization. Weighted binary matrix sampling (WBMS) is proposed to generate sub-models that span the variable subspace. Two rules are highlighted during the optimization procedure. First, the variable space shrinks in each step. Second, the new variable space outperforms the previous one. The second rule, which is rarely satisfied in most of the existing methods, is the core of the VISSA strategy. Compared with some promising variable selection methods such as competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination (MCUVE) and iteratively retaining informative variables (IRIV), VISSA showed better prediction ability for the calibration of NIR data. In addition, VISSA is user-friendly; only a few insensitive parameters are needed, and the program terminates automatically without any additional conditions. The Matlab codes for implementing VISSA are freely available on the website: https://sourceforge.net/projects/multivariateanalysis/files/VISSA/.

A Bayesian Approach for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables Using Logit and Probit Links

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Cai, Jing-Heng

2010-01-01

Analysis of ordered binary and unordered binary data has received considerable attention in social and psychological research. This article introduces a Bayesian approach, which has several nice features in practical applications, for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with dichotomous data. We demonstrate how to use the software…

Variable-Length Computerized Adaptive Testing Using the Higher Order DINA Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsu, Chia-Ling; Wang, Wen-Chung

2015-01-01

Cognitive diagnosis models provide profile information about a set of latent binary attributes, whereas item response models yield a summary report on a latent continuous trait. To utilize the advantages of both models, higher order cognitive diagnosis models were developed in which information about both latent binary attributes and latent…

Computer routine adds plotting capabilities to existing programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, J. C.; Linnekin, J. S.

1966-01-01

PLOTAN, a generalized plot analysis routine written for the IBM 7094 computer, minimizes the difficulties in adding plot capabilities to large existing programs. PLOTAN is used in conjunction with a binary tape writing routine and has the ability to plot any variable on the intermediate binary tape as a function of any other.

The first comprehensive catalog of γ Dor pulsators and their characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibanoglu, C.; Çakırlı, Ö.; Sipahi, E.

2018-07-01

We present the first comprehensive catalog of the γ Doradus type pulsating stars. This catalog covers observational properties of all γ Dor variables obtained until January 2017. The photometric and physical properties of 109 well - known γ Dor pulsators, 18 hybrid stars, 13 anomalous γ Dor stars, and 22 γ Dor stars in eclipsing plus 1 non-eclipsing SB2 binary systems are presented as separate tables. In addition, 291 candidate γ Dor variables discovered by CoRot, 307 candidate γ Dor, 205 hybrid and 11 candidate γ Dor in binaries discovered by Kepler were also presented. Distribution of the genuine single γ Dor pulsators in the Ppuls-Teff, Amplitude-Teff, Amplitude-Ppuls and L-Teff diagrams are presented and discussed. We find following correlations for the γ Dor pulsators in the eclipsing binaries: Ppuls ∝ Porb0.27, Ppuls ∝ Q0.45, and Ppuls ∝ r-0.44, where (Q) is the pulsation constant and r is the fractional radius of the pulsating component in the binary system. The correlation coefficients are not high enough due to limited sample and scattering in the data.

Modeling continuous covariates with a "spike" at zero: Bivariate approaches.

PubMed

Jenkner, Carolin; Lorenz, Eva; Becher, Heiko; Sauerbrei, Willi

2016-07-01

In epidemiology and clinical research, predictors often take value zero for a large amount of observations while the distribution of the remaining observations is continuous. These predictors are called variables with a spike at zero. Examples include smoking or alcohol consumption. Recently, an extension of the fractional polynomial (FP) procedure, a technique for modeling nonlinear relationships, was proposed to deal with such situations. To indicate whether or not a value is zero, a binary variable is added to the model. In a two stage procedure, called FP-spike, the necessity of the binary variable and/or the continuous FP function for the positive part are assessed for a suitable fit. In univariate analyses, the FP-spike procedure usually leads to functional relationships that are easy to interpret. This paper introduces four approaches for dealing with two variables with a spike at zero (SAZ). The methods depend on the bivariate distribution of zero and nonzero values. Bi-Sep is the simplest of the four bivariate approaches. It uses the univariate FP-spike procedure separately for the two SAZ variables. In Bi-D3, Bi-D1, and Bi-Sub, proportions of zeros in both variables are considered simultaneously in the binary indicators. Therefore, these strategies can account for correlated variables. The methods can be used for arbitrary distributions of the covariates. For illustration and comparison of results, data from a case-control study on laryngeal cancer, with smoking and alcohol intake as two SAZ variables, is considered. In addition, a possible extension to three or more SAZ variables is outlined. A combination of log-linear models for the analysis of the correlation in combination with the bivariate approaches is proposed. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Orbital and Systemic Parameters for Algol Binaries in the Field-of-View of the Kepler Spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Geraldine J.; Vaccaro, Todd R.; Wilson, Robert E.

2013-02-01

We propose observations of seven Algol-type binaries with the 4m Echelle spectrograph necessary for the interpretation of ongoing photometry from the it Kepler spacecraft and archival it Kepler data being analyzed for an approved NASA/ADAP project. These Algols are direct-impact systems (periods range from 1.3-4.5^d) in which the gas stream strikes the photosphere of the gainer, producing a shock. The it Kepler light curves reveal striking long and short-term variability never before seen in ground-based observations. Especially interesting is a long-term oscillation in the relative brightness of the quadrature light that we call L/T variability, which appears to be caused from a migrating variable hot spot. The it Kepler photometry is being interpreted with an updated version of the Wilson & Devinney (WD) program. The KPNO spectra will supply it critical input parameters (e.g. temperatures) and yield radial velocity curves from which we will determine the masses of the stars and absolute dimensions of the systems. Currently there are it no published spectra of most of the program binaries, including WX Dra, the prototype L/T variable and our primary target. We request 4 nights of observing time to cover one orbital cycle in the binaries with the longest periods. This project will yield information on the detailed physics of mass transfer, especially the roles of accretion hot spots and magnetic fields, and also test the new WD program for future applications by others working with the it Kepler database.

All-on-4® Treatment Concept for the Rehabilitation of the Completely Edentulous Mandible: A 7-Year Clinical and 5-Year Radiographic Retrospective Case Series with Risk Assessment for Implant Failure and Marginal Bone Level.

PubMed

Maló, Paulo; de Araújo Nobre, Miguel; Lopes, Armando; Ferro, Ana; Gravito, Inês

2015-10-01

Studies are needed to evaluate long-term outcomes of the All-on-4® treatment concept (Nobel Biocare AB) for rehabilitation of edentulous mandibles by assessing marginal bone levels and risk indicators for implant failure. To evaluate 7-year clinical outcomes and 5-year radiographic outcomes of the All-on-4 treatment concept. This retrospective case series included patients admitted for implant rehabilitations in the mandible, who were followed for 7 years clinically and 5 years radiographically. Primary outcome measures were cumulative prosthetic and implant survival using patient as the unit of analysis (Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator). Secondary outcome measure was marginal bone level (MBL) at 5 years. Variables associated with implant failure were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Binary logistic regression was used to compute odds ratio (OR) with 95% CIs for variables associated with MBL ≥2.8 mm at 5 years. A total of 324 patients (194 women, 130 men, average age = 58.9 years) were rehabilitated with 1,296 implants supporting 324 full-arch fixed immediately loaded mandibular prostheses. Sixty-four patients (19.8%) were lost to follow-up. Prosthetic survival was 323/324 (99.7%), and 14 patients lost 18 implants, with an estimated cumulative survival rate of 95.4% at 7 years. Variables associated with implant failure were smoking (HR = 5.28; 95% CI: 1.33, 20.91]) and the learning curve effect (0.69 < HR < 0.33 for more experienced levels). Mean MBL at 5 years was 1.81 mm (95% CI: 1.70, 1.92), and smoking was associated with MBL ≥2.8 mm (OR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.02, 5.62). The high implant and prosthetic survival rates and excellent MBL outcome confirm the predictability and safety of the All-on-4 treatment concept over a longer term than previously reported. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Comparison of Grid-based and SPH Binary Mass-transfer and Merger Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motl, Patrick M.; Frank, Juhan; Clayton, Geoffrey C.

2017-04-01

There is currently a great amount of interest in the outcomes and astrophysical implications of mergers of double degenerate binaries. In a commonly adopted approximation, the components of such binaries are represented by polytropes with an index of n  = 3/2. We present detailed comparisons of stellar mass-transfer and merger simulations of polytropic binaries that have been carried out using two very different numerical algorithms—a finite-volume “grid” code and a smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) code. We find that there is agreement in both the ultimate outcomes of the evolutions and the intermediate stages if the initial conditions for each code are chosen to matchmore » as closely as possible. We find that even with closely matching initial setups, the time it takes to reach a concordant evolution differs between the two codes because the initial depth of contact cannot be matched exactly. There is a general tendency for SPH to yield higher mass transfer rates and faster evolution to the final outcome. We also present comparisons of simulations calculated from two different energy equations: in one series, we assume a polytropic equation of state and in the other series an ideal gas equation of state. In the latter series of simulations, an atmosphere forms around the accretor, which can exchange angular momentum and cause a more rapid loss of orbital angular momentum. In the simulations presented here, the effect of the ideal equation of state is to de-stabilize the binary in both SPH and grid simulations, but the effect is more pronounced in the grid code.« less

Accuracy of inference on the physics of binary evolution from gravitational-wave observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Jim W.; Gaebel, Sebastian M.; Neijssel, Coenraad J.; Vigna-Gómez, Alejandro; Stevenson, Simon; Berry, Christopher P. L.; Farr, Will M.; Mandel, Ilya

2018-04-01

The properties of the population of merging binary black holes encode some of the uncertain physics underlying the evolution of massive stars in binaries. The binary black hole merger rate and chirp-mass distribution are being measured by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We consider isolated binary evolution, and explore how accurately the physical model can be constrained with such observations by applying the Fisher information matrix to the merging black hole population simulated with the rapid binary-population synthesis code COMPAS. We investigate variations in four COMPAS parameters: common-envelope efficiency, kick-velocity dispersion, and mass-loss rates during the luminous blue variable and Wolf-Rayet stellar-evolutionary phases. We find that ˜1000 observations would constrain these model parameters to a fractional accuracy of a few per cent. Given the empirically determined binary black hole merger rate, we can expect gravitational-wave observations alone to place strong constraints on the physics of stellar and binary evolution within a few years. Our approach can be extended to use other observational data sets; combining observations at different evolutionary stages will lead to a better understanding of stellar and binary physics.

Accuracy of inference on the physics of binary evolution from gravitational-wave observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Jim W.; Gaebel, Sebastian M.; Neijssel, Coenraad J.; Vigna-Gómez, Alejandro; Stevenson, Simon; Berry, Christopher P. L.; Farr, Will M.; Mandel, Ilya

2018-07-01

The properties of the population of merging binary black holes encode some of the uncertain physics underlying the evolution of massive stars in binaries. The binary black hole merger rate and chirp-mass distribution are being measured by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We consider isolated binary evolution, and explore how accurately the physical model can be constrained with such observations by applying the Fisher information matrix to the merging black hole population simulated with the rapid binary-population synthesis code COMPAS. We investigate variations in four COMPAS parameters: common-envelope efficiency, kick-velocity dispersion and mass-loss rates during the luminous blue variable, and Wolf-Rayet stellar-evolutionary phases. We find that ˜1000 observations would constrain these model parameters to a fractional accuracy of a few per cent. Given the empirically determined binary black hole merger rate, we can expect gravitational-wave observations alone to place strong constraints on the physics of stellar and binary evolution within a few years. Our approach can be extended to use other observational data sets; combining observations at different evolutionary stages will lead to a better understanding of stellar and binary physics.

Resonant Tidal Forcing in Close Binaries: Implications for CVs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, K. E. Saavik; McKernan, Barry; Schwab, Elliana

2018-01-01

Resonant tidal forcing occurs when the tidal forcing frequency of a binary matches a quadrupolar oscillation mode of one of the binary members and energy is transferred from the orbit of the binary to the mode. Tidal locking permits ongoing resonant driving of modes even as binary orbital parameters change. At small binary separations during tidal lock, a significant fraction of binary orbital energy can be deposited quickly into a resonant mode and the binary decays faster than via the emission of gravitational radiation alone. Here we discuss some of the implications of resonant tidal forcing for the class of binaries known as Cataclysmic Variable (CV) stars. We show that resonant tidal forcing of the donor’s Roche lobe could explain the observed 2‑3hr period gap in CVs, assuming modest orbital eccentricities are allowed (eb ∼ 0.03), and can be complementary or an alternative to, existing models. Sudden collapse of the companion orbit, yielding a Type Ia supernova is disfavoured, since Hydrogen is not observed in Type Ia supernova spectra. Therefore, resonance must generally be truncated, probably via mass loss from the Roche lobe or orbital perturbation, ultimately producing a short period CV containing an ’overheated’ white dwarf.

Diagnostic accuracy and receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis in surgical research and decision making.

PubMed

Søreide, Kjetil; Kørner, Hartwig; Søreide, Jon Arne

2011-01-01

In surgical research, the ability to correctly classify one type of condition or specific outcome from another is of great importance for variables influencing clinical decision making. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis is a useful tool in assessing the diagnostic accuracy of any variable with a continuous spectrum of results. In order to rule a disease state in or out with a given test, the test results are usually binary, with arbitrarily chosen cut-offs for defining disease versus health, or for grading of disease severity. In the postgenomic era, the translation from bench-to-bedside of biomarkers in various tissues and body fluids requires appropriate tools for analysis. In contrast to predetermining a cut-off value to define disease, the advantages of applying ROC analysis include the ability to test diagnostic accuracy across the entire range of variable scores and test outcomes. In addition, ROC analysis can easily examine visual and statistical comparisons across tests or scores. ROC is also favored because it is thought to be independent from the prevalence of the condition under investigation. ROC analysis is used in various surgical settings and across disciplines, including cancer research, biomarker assessment, imaging evaluation, and assessment of risk scores.With appropriate use, ROC curves may help identify the most appropriate cutoff value for clinical and surgical decision making and avoid confounding effects seen with subjective ratings. ROC curve results should always be put in perspective, because a good classifier does not guarantee the expected clinical outcome. In this review, we discuss the fundamental roles, suggested presentation, potential biases, and interpretation of ROC analysis in surgical research.

A note on implementation of decaying product correlation structures for quasi-least squares.

PubMed

Shults, Justine; Guerra, Matthew W

2014-08-30

This note implements an unstructured decaying product matrix via the quasi-least squares approach for estimation of the correlation parameters in the framework of generalized estimating equations. The structure we consider is fairly general without requiring the large number of parameters that are involved in a fully unstructured matrix. It is straightforward to show that the quasi-least squares estimators of the correlation parameters yield feasible values for the unstructured decaying product structure. Furthermore, subject to conditions that are easily checked, the quasi-least squares estimators are valid for longitudinal Bernoulli data. We demonstrate implementation of the structure in a longitudinal clinical trial with both a continuous and binary outcome variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Likelihood-Based Random-Effect Meta-Analysis of Binary Events.

PubMed

Amatya, Anup; Bhaumik, Dulal K; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Greenhouse, Joel; Kaizar, Eloise; Neelon, Brian; Gibbons, Robert D

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis has been used extensively for evaluation of efficacy and safety of medical interventions. Its advantages and utilities are well known. However, recent studies have raised questions about the accuracy of the commonly used moment-based meta-analytic methods in general and for rare binary outcomes in particular. The issue is further complicated for studies with heterogeneous effect sizes. Likelihood-based mixed-effects modeling provides an alternative to moment-based methods such as inverse-variance weighted fixed- and random-effects estimators. In this article, we compare and contrast different mixed-effect modeling strategies in the context of meta-analysis. Their performance in estimation and testing of overall effect and heterogeneity are evaluated when combining results from studies with a binary outcome. Models that allow heterogeneity in both baseline rate and treatment effect across studies have low type I and type II error rates, and their estimates are the least biased among the models considered.

Unitary Response Regression Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lipovetsky, S.

2007-01-01

The dependent variable in a regular linear regression is a numerical variable, and in a logistic regression it is a binary or categorical variable. In these models the dependent variable has varying values. However, there are problems yielding an identity output of a constant value which can also be modelled in a linear or logistic regression with…

Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Luke Zoltan

2018-05-01

This thesis studies the populations and dynamics of massive black-hole binaries and their mergers, and explores the implications for electromagnetic and gravitational-wave signals that will be detected in the near future. Massive black-holes (MBH) reside in the centers of galaxies, and when galaxies merge, their MBH interact and often pair together. We base our study on the populations of MBH and galaxies from the `Illustris' cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The bulk of the binary merger dynamics, however, are unresolved in cosmological simulations. We implement a suite of comprehensive physical models for the merger process, like dynamical friction and gravitational wave emission, which are added in post-processing. Contrary to many previous studies, we find that the most massive binaries with near equal-mass companions are the most efficient at coalescing; though the process still typically takes gigayears.From the data produced by these MBH binary populations and their dynamics, we calculate the expected gravitational wave (GW) signals: both the stochastic, GW background of countless unresolved sources, and the GW foreground of individually resolvable binaries which resound above the noise. Ongoing experiments, called pulsar timing arrays, are sensitive to both of these types of signals. We find that, while the current lack of detections is unsurprising, both the background and foreground will plausibly be detected in the next decade. Unlike previous studies which have predicted the foreground to be significantly harder to detect than the background, we find their typical amplitudes are comparable.With traditional electromagnetic observations, there has also been a dearth of confirmed detections of MBH binary systems. We use our binaries, combined with models of emission from accreting MBH systems, to make predictions for the occurrence rate of systems observable using photometric, periodic-variability surveys. These variables should be detectable in current surveys, and indeed, we expect many candidates recently identified to be true binaries - though a significant fraction are likely false positives. Overall, this thesis finds the science of MBH binaries at an exciting cusp: just before incredible breakthroughs in observations, both electromagnetically and in the new age of gravitational wave astrophysics.

Non-cereal food consumption, food insecurity and nutritional status of children and mothers: a case study in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Rabiul, Islam G M; Jahangir, Alam M; Buysse, J

2012-04-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of food insecurity derived from non-cereal food consumption on nutritional status of children and mothers in a poverty-prone region in Bangladesh. Data from the Bangladesh Nutritional Surveillance Project, 2005 of Helen Keller International were used to relate non-cereal food consumption and household food insecurity to nutritional status of children and their mothers. Multiple regressions were used to determine the association between the nutritional outcomes and the explanatory variables. In the case of binary and multi-level outcomes, logistic regressions were used as well. Non-cereal dietary diversity was found to have little predictive power on BMI and MUAC of mothers and on the nutritional status of the children. Maternal education is strongly associated with mothers' and children's nutritional status. Dietary diversity based on non-cereal food consumption can be a useful tool to investigate the nutritional status of poor households, but more studies are needed to verify these findings.

Lighthouse in the dust: infrared echoes of periodic emission from massive black hole binaries★

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Orazio, Daniel J.; Haiman, Zoltán

2017-09-01

The optical and UV emission from sub-parsec massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is believed to vary periodically, on time-scales comparable to the binary's orbital time. If driven by accretion rate fluctuations, the variability could be isotropic. If dominated by relativistic Doppler modulation, the variability should instead be anisotropic, resembling a rotating forward-beamed lighthouse. We consider the infrared (IR) reverberation of either type of periodic emission by pc-scale circumbinary dust tori. We predict the phase and amplitude of IR variability as a function of the ratio of dust light crossing time to the source variability period, and of the torus inclination and opening angle. We enumerate several differences between the isotropic and anisotropic cases. Interestingly, for a nearly face-on binary with an inclined dust torus, the Doppler boost can produce IR variability without any observable optical/UV variability. Such orphan-IR variability would have been missed in optical searches for periodic AGNs. We apply our models to time-domain WISE IR data from the MBHB candidate PG 1302-102 and find consistency with dust reverberation by both isotropically emitting and Doppler-boosted sources in the shorter wavelength W1-W2 (2.8 → 5.3 μm) bands. We constrain the dust torus to be thin (aspect ratio ˜ 0.1), with an inner radius at 1-5 pc. More generally, our dust-echo models will aid in identifying new MBHB candidates, determining their nature and constraining the physical properties of MBHBs and their dust tori.

Possible determinants and spatial patterns of anaemia among young children in Nigeria: a Bayesian semi-parametric modelling.

PubMed

Gayawan, Ezra; Arogundade, Ekundayo D; Adebayo, Samson B

2014-03-01

Anaemia is a global public health problem affecting both developing and developed countries with major consequences for human health and socioeconomic development. This paper examines the possible relationship between Hb concentration and severity of anaemia with individual and household characteristics of children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria; and explores possible geographical variations of these outcome variables. Data on Hb concentration and severity of anaemia in children aged 6-59 months that participated in the 2010 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey were analysed. A semi-parametric model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach was adopted to examine the putative relationship of covariates of different types and possible spatial variation. Gaussian, binary and ordinal outcome variables were considered in modelling. Spatial analyses reveal a distinct North-South divide in Hb concentration of the children analysed and that states in Northern Nigeria possess a higher risk of anaemia. Other important risk factors include the household wealth index, sex of the child, whether or not the child had fever or malaria in the 2 weeks preceding the survey, and children under 24 months of age. There is a need for state level implementation of specific programmes that target vulnerable children as this can help in reversing the existing patterns.

1E 1048.5 + 5421 - A new 114 minute AM Herculis binary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Simon L.; Schmidt, Gary D.; Liebert, James; Gioia, Isabella M.; Maccacaro, Tommaso

1987-01-01

The discovery of a new AM Herculis binary system, found as a serendipitous Einstein X-ray source, is described. Like the previously discovered mass-transfer binaries involving synchronously rotating magnetic white-dwarf primaries, the system exhibits strong circular polarization, X-ray and optical continuum variations, and optical emission lines, all of which seem to be modulated with these binary periods of 114.5 + or - 0.2 minutes. Although all data are not concurrent, the new system appears to possess the highest ratio of F(x)/F(opt) yet found for an AM Her system. The surprising accumulation of AM Her variables with periods near 114 minute is commented on.

Collinearity and Causal Diagrams: A Lesson on the Importance of Model Specification.

PubMed

Schisterman, Enrique F; Perkins, Neil J; Mumford, Sunni L; Ahrens, Katherine A; Mitchell, Emily M

2017-01-01

Correlated data are ubiquitous in epidemiologic research, particularly in nutritional and environmental epidemiology where mixtures of factors are often studied. Our objectives are to demonstrate how highly correlated data arise in epidemiologic research and provide guidance, using a directed acyclic graph approach, on how to proceed analytically when faced with highly correlated data. We identified three fundamental structural scenarios in which high correlation between a given variable and the exposure can arise: intermediates, confounders, and colliders. For each of these scenarios, we evaluated the consequences of increasing correlation between the given variable and the exposure on the bias and variance for the total effect of the exposure on the outcome using unadjusted and adjusted models. We derived closed-form solutions for continuous outcomes using linear regression and empirically present our findings for binary outcomes using logistic regression. For models properly specified, total effect estimates remained unbiased even when there was almost perfect correlation between the exposure and a given intermediate, confounder, or collider. In general, as the correlation increased, the variance of the parameter estimate for the exposure in the adjusted models increased, while in the unadjusted models, the variance increased to a lesser extent or decreased. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the causal framework under study when specifying regression models. Strategies that do not take into consideration the causal structure may lead to biased effect estimation for the original question of interest, even under high correlation.

Neighborhood Social Cohesion and Sleep Outcomes in the Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander National Health Interview Survey.

PubMed

Young, Marielle C; Gerber, Monica W; Ash, Tayla; Horan, Christine M; Taveras, Elsie M

2018-05-16

Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPIs) have the lowest attainment of healthy sleep duration among all racial and ethnic groups in the United States. We examined associations of neighborhood social cohesion with sleep duration and quality. Cross-sectional analysis of 2,464 adults in the NHPI National Health Interview Survey (2014). Neighborhood social cohesion was categorized as a continuous and categorical variable into low (<12), medium (12-14) and high (>15) according to tertiles of the distribution of responses. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine the adjusted odds ratio of short and long sleep duration relative to intermediate sleep duration. We used binary logistic regression for dichotomous sleep quality outcomes. Sleep outcomes were modeled as categorical variables. 40% of the cohort reported short (<7 hours) sleep duration and only 4% reported long (>9 hours) duration. Mean (SE, range) social cohesion score was 12.4 units (0.11, 4-16) and 23% reported low social cohesion. In multivariable models, each 1 SD decrease in neighborhood social cohesion score was associated with higher odds of short sleep duration (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.29). Additionally, low social cohesion was associated with increased odds of short sleep duration (OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.13). No associations between neighborhood social cohesion and having trouble falling or staying asleep and feeling well rested were found. Low neighborhood social cohesion is associated with short sleep duration in NHPIs.

Search for Pulsating Stars in the Open Cluster NGC 1502

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stęślicki, M.

2006-04-01

We present results of a variability search in the field of the young open cluster NGC 1502. We confirm that a beta Cephei suspect WEBDA 26 is indeed pulsating with a period of 0.09612 d and semi-amplitude of about 3 mmag in V. A new VI light curve of the bright eclipsing binary and cluster member SZ Cam was obtained. In addition, we found two new variable stars. One is an interesting eclipsing binary showing total eclipses, which can be used to derive the distance to the cluster once radial velocities of the components will be obtained.

Utility of High Temporal Resolution Observations for Heat Health Event Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palecki, M. A.

2017-12-01

Many heat health watch systems produce a binary on/off warning when conditions are predicted to exceed a given threshold during a day. Days with warnings and their mortality/morbidity statistics are analyzed relative to days not warned to determine the impacts of the event on human health, the effectiveness of warnings, and other statistics. The climate analyses of the heat waves or extreme temperature events are often performed with hourly or daily observations of air temperature, humidity, and other measured or derived variables, especially the maxima and minima of these data. However, since the beginning of the century, 5-minute observations are readily available for many weather and climate stations in the United States. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has been collecting 5-minute observations from the NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations since 2000, and from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations since 2005. This presentation will demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing 5-minute environmental observations to characterize heat waves by counting the length of time conditions exceed extreme thresholds based on individual and multiple variables and on derived variables such as the heat index. The length and depth of recovery periods between daytime heating periods will also be examined. The length of time under extreme conditions will influence health outcomes for those directly exposed. Longer periods of dangerous conditions also could increase the chances for poor health outcomes for those only exposed intermittently through cumulative impacts.

On the orbital evolution of radiating binary systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekov, A. A.; Momynov, S. B.

2018-05-01

The evolution of dynamic parameters of radiating binary systems with variable mass is studied. As a dynamic model, the problem of two gravitating and radiating bodies is considered, taking into account the gravitational attraction and the light pressure of the interacting bodies with the additional assumption of isotropic variability of their masses. The problem combines the Gylden-Meshchersky problem, acquiring a new physical meaning, and the two-body photogravitational Radzievsky problem. The evolving orbit is presented, unlike Kepler, with varying orbital elements - parameter and eccentricity, defines by the parameter µ(t), area integral C and quasi-integral energy h(t). Adiabatic invariants of the problem, which are of interest for the slow evolution of orbits, are determined. The general course of evolution of orbits of binary systems with radiation are determined by the change of the parameter µ(t) and the total energy of the system.

Variability in the Milky Way: Contact Binaries as Diagnostic Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Grijs, R.; Chen, X.; Deng, L.

2017-07-01

We used the 50 cm Binocular Network (50BiN) telescope at Delingha Station (Qinghai Province) of Purple Mountain Observatory (Chinese Academy of Sciences) to obtain simultaneous V- and R-band observations of the old open cluster NGC 188. Our aim was a search for populations of variable stars. We derived light-curve solutions for six W Ursae Majoris (W UMa) eclipsing-binary systems and estimated their orbital parameters. The resulting distance to the W UMas is independent of the physical characteristics of the host cluster. We next determined the current best period-luminosity relations for contact binaries (CBs; scatter σ<0.10 mag). We conclude that CBs can be used as distance tracers with better than 5% uncertainty. We apply our new relations to the 102 CBs in the Large Magellanic Cloud, which yields a distance modulus of (m-M)V,0=18.41±0.20 mag.

New SX Phoenicis Variables in the Globular Cluster NGC 4833

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darragh, A. N.; Murphy, B. W.

2012-07-01

We report the discovery of 6 SX Phoenicis stars in the southern globular cluster NGC 4833. Images were obtained from January through June 2011 with the Southeastern Association for Research in Astronomy 0.6 meter telescope located at Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory. The ISIS image subtraction method was used to search for variable stars in the cluster. We confirmed 17 previously cataloged variables and have identified 10 new variables. Of the total number of confirmed variables in our 10×10 arcmin^2 field, we classified 10 RRab variables, with a mean period of 0.69591 days, 7 RRc, with a mean period of 0.39555 days, 2 possible RRe variables with a mean period of 0.30950 days, a W Ursae Majoris contact binary, an Algol-type binary, and the 6 SX Phoenicis stars with a mean period of 0.05847 days. The periods, relative numbers of RRab and RRc variables, and Bailey diagram are indicative of the cluster being of the Oosterhoff type II. We present the phased-light curves, periods of previously known variables and the periods and classifications of the newly discovered variables, and their location on the color-magnitude diagram.

Examining Measurement Invariance and Differential Item Functioning with Discrete Latent Construct Indicators: A Note on a Multiple Testing Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Dimitrov, Dimiter M.; Marcoulides, George A.; Li, Tatyana; Menold, Natalja

2018-01-01

A latent variable modeling method for studying measurement invariance when evaluating latent constructs with multiple binary or binary scored items with no guessing is outlined. The approach extends the continuous indicator procedure described by Raykov and colleagues, utilizes similarly the false discovery rate approach to multiple testing, and…

Alternation blindness in the representation of binary sequences.

PubMed

Yu, Ru Qi; Osherson, Daniel; Zhao, Jiaying

2018-03-01

Binary information is prevalent in the environment and contains 2 distinct outcomes. Binary sequences consist of a mixture of alternation and repetition. Understanding how people perceive such sequences would contribute to a general theory of information processing. In this study, we examined how people process alternation and repetition in binary sequences. Across 4 paradigms involving estimation, working memory, change detection, and visual search, we found that the number of alternations is underestimated compared with repetitions (Experiment 1). Moreover, recall for binary sequences deteriorates as the sequence alternates more (Experiment 2). Changes in bits are also harder to detect as the sequence alternates more (Experiment 3). Finally, visual targets superimposed on bits of a binary sequence take longer to process as alternation increases (Experiment 4). Overall, our results indicate that compared with repetition, alternation in a binary sequence is less salient in the sense of requiring more attention for successful encoding. The current study thus reveals the cognitive constraints in the representation of alternation and provides a new explanation for the overalternation bias in randomness perception. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Mesoscopic model for binary fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echeverria, C.; Tucci, K.; Alvarez-Llamoza, O.; Orozco-Guillén, E. E.; Morales, M.; Cosenza, M. G.

2017-10-01

We propose a model for studying binary fluids based on the mesoscopic molecular simulation technique known as multiparticle collision, where the space and state variables are continuous, and time is discrete. We include a repulsion rule to simulate segregation processes that does not require calculation of the interaction forces between particles, so binary fluids can be described on a mesoscopic scale. The model is conceptually simple and computationally efficient; it maintains Galilean invariance and conserves the mass and energy in the system at the micro- and macro-scale, whereas momentum is conserved globally. For a wide range of temperatures and densities, the model yields results in good agreement with the known properties of binary fluids, such as the density profile, interface width, phase separation, and phase growth. We also apply the model to the study of binary fluids in crowded environments with consistent results.

Fast Solution in Sparse LDA for Binary Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moghaddam, Baback

2010-01-01

An algorithm that performs sparse linear discriminant analysis (Sparse-LDA) finds near-optimal solutions in far less time than the prior art when specialized to binary classification (of 2 classes). Sparse-LDA is a type of feature- or variable- selection problem with numerous applications in statistics, machine learning, computer vision, computational finance, operations research, and bio-informatics. Because of its combinatorial nature, feature- or variable-selection problems are NP-hard or computationally intractable in cases involving more than 30 variables or features. Therefore, one typically seeks approximate solutions by means of greedy search algorithms. The prior Sparse-LDA algorithm was a greedy algorithm that considered the best variable or feature to add/ delete to/ from its subsets in order to maximally discriminate between multiple classes of data. The present algorithm is designed for the special but prevalent case of 2-class or binary classification (e.g. 1 vs. 0, functioning vs. malfunctioning, or change versus no change). The present algorithm provides near-optimal solutions on large real-world datasets having hundreds or even thousands of variables or features (e.g. selecting the fewest wavelength bands in a hyperspectral sensor to do terrain classification) and does so in typical computation times of minutes as compared to days or weeks as taken by the prior art. Sparse LDA requires solving generalized eigenvalue problems for a large number of variable subsets (represented by the submatrices of the input within-class and between-class covariance matrices). In the general (fullrank) case, the amount of computation scales at least cubically with the number of variables and thus the size of the problems that can be solved is limited accordingly. However, in binary classification, the principal eigenvalues can be found using a special analytic formula, without resorting to costly iterative techniques. The present algorithm exploits this analytic form along with the inherent sequential nature of greedy search itself. Together this enables the use of highly-efficient partitioned-matrix-inverse techniques that result in large speedups of computation in both the forward-selection and backward-elimination stages of greedy algorithms in general.

The Role of Balanced Training and Testing Data Sets for Binary Classifiers in Bioinformatics

PubMed Central

Wei, Qiong; Dunbrack, Roland L.

2013-01-01

Training and testing of conventional machine learning models on binary classification problems depend on the proportions of the two outcomes in the relevant data sets. This may be especially important in practical terms when real-world applications of the classifier are either highly imbalanced or occur in unknown proportions. Intuitively, it may seem sensible to train machine learning models on data similar to the target data in terms of proportions of the two binary outcomes. However, we show that this is not the case using the example of prediction of deleterious and neutral phenotypes of human missense mutations in human genome data, for which the proportion of the binary outcome is unknown. Our results indicate that using balanced training data (50% neutral and 50% deleterious) results in the highest balanced accuracy (the average of True Positive Rate and True Negative Rate), Matthews correlation coefficient, and area under ROC curves, no matter what the proportions of the two phenotypes are in the testing data. Besides balancing the data by undersampling the majority class, other techniques in machine learning include oversampling the minority class, interpolating minority-class data points and various penalties for misclassifying the minority class. However, these techniques are not commonly used in either the missense phenotype prediction problem or in the prediction of disordered residues in proteins, where the imbalance problem is substantial. The appropriate approach depends on the amount of available data and the specific problem at hand. PMID:23874456

THE BERLIN EXOPLANET SEARCH TELESCOPE II CATALOG OF VARIABLE STARS. I. CHARACTERIZATION OF THREE SOUTHERN TARGET FIELDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fruth, T.; Cabrera, J.; Csizmadia, Sz.

2013-11-01

A photometric survey of three southern target fields with BEST II yielded the detection of 2406 previously unknown variable stars and an additional 617 stars with suspected variability. This study presents a catalog including their coordinates, magnitudes, light curves, ephemerides, amplitudes, and type of variability. In addition, the variability of 17 known objects is confirmed, thus validating the results. The catalog contains a number of known and new variables that are of interest for further astrophysical investigations, in order to, e.g., search for additional bodies in eclipsing binary systems, or to test stellar interior models. Altogether, 209,070 stars were monitoredmore » with BEST II during a total of 128 nights in 2009/2010. The overall variability fraction of 1.2%-1.5% in these target fields is well comparable to similar ground-based photometric surveys. Within the main magnitude range of R in [11, 17], we identify 0.67(3)% of all stars to be eclipsing binaries, which indicates a completeness of about one third for this particular type in comparison to space surveys.« less

Rational and Boundedly Rational Behavior in a Binary Choice Sender-Receiver Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landi, Massimiliano; Colucci, Domenico

2008-01-01

The authors investigate the strategic rationale behind the message sent by Osama bin Laden on the eve of the 2004 U.S. Presidential elections. They model this situation as a signaling game in which a population of receivers takes a binary choice, the outcome is decided by majority rule, sender and receivers have conflicting interests, and there is…

Wind accretion in the massive X-ray binary 4U 2206+54: abnormally slow wind and a moderately eccentric orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribó, M.; Negueruela, I.; Blay, P.; Torrejón, J. M.; Reig, P.

2006-04-01

Massive X-ray binaries are usually classified by the properties of the donor star in classical, supergiant and Be X-ray binaries, the main difference being the mass transfer mechanism between the two components. The massive X-ray binary 4U 2206+54 does not fit in any of these groups, and deserves a detailed study to understand how the transfer of matter and the accretion on to the compact object take place. To this end we study an IUE spectrum of the donor and obtain a wind terminal velocity (v_∞) of ~350 km s-1, which is abnormally slow for its spectral type. We also analyse here more than 9 years of available RXTE/ASM data. We study the long-term X-ray variability of the source and find it to be similar to that observed in the wind-fed supergiant system Vela X-1, reinforcing the idea that 4U 2206+54 is also a wind-fed system. We find a quasi-period decreasing from ~270 to ~130 d, noticed in previous works but never studied in detail. We discuss possible scenarios for its origin and conclude that long-term quasi-periodic variations in the mass-loss rate of the primary are probably driving such variability in the measured X-ray flux. We obtain an improved orbital period of P_orb=9.5591±0.0007 d with maximum X-ray flux at MJD 51856.6±0.1. Our study of the orbital X-ray variability in the context of wind accretion suggests a moderate eccentricity around 0.15 for this binary system. Moreover, the low value of v_∞ solves the long-standing problem of the relatively high X-ray luminosity for the unevolved nature of the donor, BD +53°2790, which is probably an O9.5 V star. We note that changes in v_∞ and/or the mass-loss rate of the primary alone cannot explain the different patterns displayed by the orbital X-ray variability. We finally emphasize that 4U 2206+54, together with LS 5039, could be part of a new population of wind-fed HMXBs with main sequence donors, the natural progenitors of supergiant X-ray binaries.

The True Ultracool Binary Fraction Using Spectral Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardalez Gagliuffi, Daniella; Burgasser, Adam J.; Schmidt, Sarah J.; Gagné, Jonathan; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Cruz, Kelle; Gelino, Chris

2018-01-01

Brown dwarfs bridge the gap between stars and giant planets. While the essential mechanisms governing their formation are not well constrained, binary statistics are a direct outcome of the formation process, and thus provide a means to test formation theories. Observational constraints on the brown dwarf binary fraction place it at 10 ‑ 20%, dominated by imaging studies (85% of systems) with the most common separation at 4 AU. This coincides with the resolution limit of state-of-the-art imaging techniques, suggesting that the binary fraction is underestimated. We have developed a separation-independent method to identify and characterize tightly-separated (< 5 AU) binary systems of brown dwarfs as spectral binaries by identifying traces of methane in the spectra of late-M and early-L dwarfs. Imaging follow-up of 17 spectral binaries yielded 3 (18%) resolved systems, corroborating the observed binary fraction, but 5 (29%) known binaries were missed, reinforcing the hypothesis that the short-separation systems are undercounted. In order to find the true binary fraction of brown dwarfs, we have compiled a volume-limited, spectroscopic sample of M7-L5 dwarfs and searched for T dwarf companions. In the 25 pc volume, 4 candidates were found, three of which are already confirmed, leading to a spectral binary fraction of 0.95 ± 0.50%, albeit for a specific combination of spectral types. To extract the true binary fraction and determine the biases of the spectral binary method, we have produced a binary population simulation based on different assumptions of the mass function, age distribution, evolutionary models and mass ratio distribution. Applying the correction fraction resulting from this method to the observed spectral binary fraction yields a true binary fraction of 27 ± 4%, which is roughly within 1σ of the binary fraction obtained from high resolution imaging studies, radial velocity and astrometric monitoring. This method can be extended to identify giant planet companions to young brown dwarfs.

Investigation of the new cataclysmic variable 1RXS J180834.7+101041

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakin, D. G.; Suleimanov, V. F.; Borisov, N. V.; Shimanskii, V. V.; Bikmaev, I. F.

2011-12-01

We present the results of our photometric and spectroscopic studies of the new eclipsing cataclysmic variable star 1RXS J180834.7+101041. Its spectrum exhibits double-peaked hydrogen and helium emission lines. The Doppler maps constructed from hydrogen lines show a nonuniform distribution of emission in the disk similar to that observed in IP Peg. This suggests that the object can be a cataclysmic variable with tidal density waves in the disk. We have determined the component masses ( M WD = 0.8 ± 0.22 M ⊙ and M RD = 0.14 ± 0.02 M ⊙) and the binary inclination ( i = 78° ± 1.5°) based on well-known relations between parameters for cataclysmic variable stars. We have modeled the binary light curves and showed that the model of a disk with two spots is capable of explaining the main observed features of the light curves.

Discovery of variable VHE γ-ray emission from the binary system 1FGL J1018.6-5856

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

H. E. S. S. Collaboration; Abramowski, A.; Aharonian, F.; Ait Benkhali, F.; Akhperjanian, A. G.; Angüner, E. O.; Backes, M.; Balzer, A.; Becherini, Y.; Becker Tjus, J.; Berge, D.; Bernhard, S.; Bernlöhr, K.; Birsin, E.; Blackwell, R.; Böttcher, M.; Boisson, C.; Bolmont, J.; Bordas, P.; Bregeon, J.; Brun, F.; Brun, P.; Bryan, M.; Bulik, T.; Carr, J.; Casanova, S.; Chakraborty, N.; Chalme-Calvet, R.; Chaves, R. C. G.; Chen, A.; Chrétien, M.; Colafrancesco, S.; Cologna, G.; Conrad, J.; Couturier, C.; Cui, Y.; Davids, I. D.; Degrange, B.; Deil, C.; deWilt, P.; Djannati-Ataï, A.; Domainko, W.; Donath, A.; O'C. Drury, L.; Dubus, G.; Dutson, K.; Dyks, J.; Dyrda, M.; Edwards, T.; Egberts, K.; Eger, P.; Ernenwein, J.-P.; Espigat, P.; Farnier, C.; Fegan, S.; Feinstein, F.; Fernandes, M. V.; Fernandez, D.; Fiasson, A.; Fontaine, G.; Förster, A.; Füßling, M.; Gabici, S.; Gajdus, M.; Gallant, Y. A.; Garrigoux, T.; Giavitto, G.; Giebels, B.; Glicenstein, J. F.; Gottschall, D.; Goyal, A.; Grondin, M.-H.; Grudzińska, M.; Hadasch, D.; Häffner, S.; Hahn, J.; Hawkes, J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henri, G.; Hermann, G.; Hervet, O.; Hillert, A.; Hinton, J. A.; Hofmann, W.; Hofverberg, P.; Hoischen, C.; Holler, M.; Horns, D.; Ivascenko, A.; Jacholkowska, A.; Jahn, C.; Jamrozy, M.; Janiak, M.; Jankowsky, F.; Jung-Richardt, I.; Kastendieck, M. A.; Katarzyński, K.; Katz, U.; Kerszberg, D.; Khélifi, B.; Kieffer, M.; Klepser, S.; Klochkov, D.; Kluźniak, W.; Kolitzus, D.; Komin, Nu.; Kosack, K.; Krakau, S.; Krayzel, F.; Krüger, P. P.; Laffon, H.; Lamanna, G.; Lau, J.; Lefaucheur, J.; Lefranc, V.; Lemière, A.; Lemoine-Goumard, M.; Lenain, J.-P.; Lohse, T.; Lopatin, A.; Lu, C.-C.; Lui, R.; Marandon, V.; Marcowith, A.; Mariaud, C.; Marx, R.; Maurin, G.; Maxted, N.; Mayer, M.; Meintjes, P. J.; Menzler, U.; Meyer, M.; Mitchell, A. M. W.; Moderski, R.; Mohamed, M.; Morå, K.; Moulin, E.; Murach, T.; de Naurois, M.; Niemiec, J.; Oakes, L.; Odaka, H.; Öttl, S.; Ohm, S.; de Oña Wilhelmi, E.; Opitz, B.; Ostrowski, M.; Oya, I.; Panter, M.; Parsons, R. D.; Arribas, M. Paz; Pekeur, N. W.; Pelletier, G.; Petrucci, P.-O.; Peyaud, B.; Pita, S.; Poon, H.; Prokoph, H.; Pühlhofer, G.; Punch, M.; Quirrenbach, A.; Raab, S.; Reichardt, I.; Reimer, A.; Reimer, O.; Renaud, M.; de los Reyes, R.; Rieger, F.; Romoli, C.; Rosier-Lees, S.; Rowell, G.; Rudak, B.; Rulten, C. B.; Sahakian, V.; Salek, D.; Sanchez, D. A.; Santangelo, A.; Sasaki, M.; Schlickeiser, R.; Schüssler, F.; Schulz, A.; Schwanke, U.; Schwemmer, S.; Seyffert, A. S.; Simoni, R.; Sol, H.; Spanier, F.; Spengler, G.; Spies, F.; Stawarz, Ł.; Steenkamp, R.; Stegmann, C.; Stinzing, F.; Stycz, K.; Sushch, I.; Tavernet, J.-P.; Tavernier, T.; Taylor, A. M.; Terrier, R.; Tluczykont, M.; Trichard, C.; Valerius, K.; van der Walt, J.; van Eldik, C.; van Soelen, B.; Vasileiadis, G.; Veh, J.; Venter, C.; Viana, A.; Vincent, P.; Vink, J.; Voisin, F.; Völk, H. J.; Vuillaume, T.; Wagner, S. J.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, R. M.; Weidinger, M.; Weitzel, Q.; White, R.; Wierzcholska, A.; Willmann, P.; Wörnlein, A.; Wouters, D.; Yang, R.; Zabalza, V.; Zaborov, D.; Zacharias, M.; Zdziarski, A. A.; Zech, A.; Zefi, F.; Żywucka, N.

2015-05-01

Re-observations with the HESS telescope array of the very high-energy (VHE) source HESS J1018-589 A that is coincident with the Fermi-LAT γ-ray binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856 have resulted in a source detection significance of more than 9σ and the detection of variability (χ2/ν of 238.3/155) in the emitted γ-ray flux. This variability confirms the association of HESS J1018-589 A with the high-energy γ-ray binary detected by Fermi-LAT and also confirms the point-like source as a new VHE binary system. The spectrum of HESS J1018-589 A is best fit with a power-law function with photon index Γ = 2.20 ± 0.14stat ± 0.2sys. Emission is detected up to ~20 TeV. The mean differential flux level is (2.9 ± 0.4) × 10-13 TeV-1 cm-2 s-1 at 1 TeV, equivalent to ~1% of the flux from the Crab Nebula at the same energy. Variability is clearly detected in the night-by-night light curve. When folded on the orbital period of 16.58 days, the rebinned light curve peaks in phase with the observed X-ray and high-energy phaseograms. The fit of the HESS phaseogram to a constant flux provides evidence of periodicity at the level of Nσ> 3σ. The shape of the VHE phaseogram and measured spectrum suggest a low-inclination, low-eccentricity system with amodest impact from VHE γ-ray absorption due to pair production (τ ≲ 1 at 300 GeV).

The early-type multiple system QZ Carinae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, P.; Lorenz, R.; Drechsel, H.; Abseim, A.

2001-02-01

We present an analysis of the early-type quadruple system QZ Car, consisting of an eclipsing and a non-eclipsing binary. The spectroscopic investigation is based on new high dispersion echelle and CAT/CES spectra of H and He lines. The elements for the orbit of the non-eclipsing pair could be refined. Lines of the brighter component of the eclipsing binary were detected in near-quadrature spectra, while signatures of the fainter component could be identified in only few spectra. Lines of the primary component of the non-eclipsing pair and of both components of the eclipsing pair were found to be variable in position and strength; in particular, the He ii 4686 emission line of the brighter eclipsing component is strongly variable. An ephemeris for the eclipsing binary QZ Car valid at present was derived Prim. Min. = hel. JD 2448687.16 + 5fd9991 * E. The relative orbit of the two binary constituents of the multiple system is discussed. In contrast to earlier investigations we found radial velocity changes of the systemic velocities of both binaries, which were used - together with an O-C analysis of the expected light-time effect - to derive approximate parameters of the mutual orbit of the two pairs. It is shown that this orbit and the distance to QZ Car can be further refined by minima timing and interferometry. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, La Silla, Chile.

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data.

PubMed

Riley, R D; Price, M J; Jackson, D; Wardle, M; Gueyffier, F; Wang, J; Staessen, J A; White, I R

2015-06-01

When combining results across related studies, a multivariate meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated effect estimates from multiple outcomes. Joint synthesis can improve efficiency over separate univariate syntheses, may reduce selective outcome reporting biases, and enables joint inferences across the outcomes. A common issue is that within-study correlations needed to fit the multivariate model are unknown from published reports. However, provision of individual participant data (IPD) allows them to be calculated directly. Here, we illustrate how to use IPD to estimate within-study correlations, using a joint linear regression for multiple continuous outcomes and bootstrapping methods for binary, survival and mixed outcomes. In a meta-analysis of 10 hypertension trials, we then show how these methods enable multivariate meta-analysis to address novel clinical questions about continuous, survival and binary outcomes; treatment-covariate interactions; adjusted risk/prognostic factor effects; longitudinal data; prognostic and multiparameter models; and multiple treatment comparisons. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied, with example software code provided to derive within-study correlations and to fit the models. © 2014 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sequential parallel comparison design with binary and time-to-event outcomes.

PubMed

Silverman, Rachel Kloss; Ivanova, Anastasia; Fine, Jason

2018-04-30

Sequential parallel comparison design (SPCD) has been proposed to increase the likelihood of success of clinical trials especially trials with possibly high placebo effect. Sequential parallel comparison design is conducted with 2 stages. Participants are randomized between active therapy and placebo in stage 1. Then, stage 1 placebo nonresponders are rerandomized between active therapy and placebo. Data from the 2 stages are pooled to yield a single P value. We consider SPCD with binary and with time-to-event outcomes. For time-to-event outcomes, response is defined as a favorable event prior to the end of follow-up for a given stage of SPCD. We show that for these cases, the usual test statistics from stages 1 and 2 are asymptotically normal and uncorrelated under the null hypothesis, leading to a straightforward combined testing procedure. In addition, we show that the estimators of the treatment effects from the 2 stages are asymptotically normal and uncorrelated under the null and alternative hypothesis, yielding confidence interval procedures with correct coverage. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate the utility of the binary and time-to-event SPCD. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

"I would have preferred more options": accounting for non-binary youth in health research.

PubMed

Frohard-Dourlent, Hélène; Dobson, Sarah; Clark, Beth A; Doull, Marion; Saewyc, Elizabeth M

2017-01-01

As a research team focused on vulnerable youth, we increasingly need to find ways to acknowledge non-binary genders in health research. Youth have become more vocal about expanding notions of gender beyond traditional categories of boy/man and girl/woman. Integrating non-binary identities into established research processes is a complex undertaking in a culture that often assumes gender is a binary variable. In this article, we present the challenges at every stage of the research process and questions we have asked ourselves to consider non-binary genders in our work. As researchers, how do we interrogate the assumptions that have made non-binary lives invisible? What challenges arise when attempting to transform research practices to incorporate non-binary genders? Why is it crucial that researchers consider these questions at each step of the research process? We draw on our own research experiences to highlight points of tensions and possibilities for change. Improving access to inclusive health-care for non-binary people, and non-binary youth in particular, is part of creating a more equitable healthcare system. We argue that increased and improved access to inclusive health-care can be supported by research that acknowledges and includes people of all genders. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

What and whence 1I/`Oumuamua: a contact binary from the debris of a young planetary system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidos, E.

2018-07-01

The first confirmed interstellar interloper in our Solar system, 1I/`Oumuamua, is likely to be a minor body ejected from another star, but its brief flyby and faintness made it difficult to study. Two remarkable properties are its large (up to 2.5 mag) rotational variability and its motion relative to the Sun before encounter. The former suggests an extremely elongated shape (aspect ratio ≥ 10) and the latter an origin from the protoplanetary disc of a young star in a nearby association. Against expectations, it is also not comet-like. 1I/`Oumuamua's variability can also be explained if it is a contact binary composed of near-equilibrium ellipsoidal components and heterogeneous surfaces, i.e. brighter, dust-mantled inner-facing hemispheres and darker, dust-free outer-facing poles. Such shapes are a plausible outcome of radiation, tides, and collisions in systems where planets are clearing planetesimal discs. The probability that 1I/`Oumuamua has the same motion as a young (≲100 Myr) stellar association by coincidence is <1 per cent. If it is young, its detection versus more numerous, older counterparts could be explained as a selection effect due to darkening of surfaces by Galactic cosmic rays and loss of dust. 1I/`Oumuamua's apparent lack of ices can be explained if ejected rocky planetesimals are characteristically smaller and thus far more numerous than their icy counterparts: the Solar system may currently host several such objects captured by the combined gravity of Jupiter and the Sun.

What and Whence 1I/`Oumuamua: A Contact Binary from the Debris of a Young Planetary System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidos, E.

2018-04-01

The first confirmed interstellar interloper in our Solar System, 1I/`Oumuamua, is likely to be a minor body ejected from another star, but its brief flyby and faintness made it difficult to study. Two remarkable properties are its large (up to 2.5 mag) rotational variability and its motion relative to the Sun before encounter. The former suggests an extremely elongated shape (aspect ratio ≥10) and the latter an origin from the protoplanetary disk of a young star in a nearby association. Against expectations, it is also not comet-like. 1I/`Oumuamua's variability can also be explained if it is a contact binary composed of near-equilibrium ellipsoidal components and heterogeneous surfaces, i.e. brighter, dust-mantled inner-facing hemispheres and darker, dust-free outer-facing poles. Such shapes are a plausible outcome of radiation, tides and collisions in systems where planets are clearing planetesimal disks. The probability that 1I/'Oumuamua has the same motion as a young (≲ 100 Myr) stellar association by coincidence is <1%. If it is young, its detection vs. more numerous, older counterparts could be explained as a selection effect due to darkening of surfaces by Galactic cosmic rays and loss of dust. 1I/`Oumuamua's apparent lack of ices can be explained if ejected rocky planetesimals are characteristically smaller and thus far more numerous than their icy counterparts: the Solar System may currently host several such objects captured by the combined gravity of Jupiter and the Sun.

Ejecta evolutions and fates from the AIDA impact on the secondary of the binary asteroid Didymos: a NEOShield-2 project contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, P.; Yu, Y.

2017-09-01

We simulated the evolutions and fates of ejecta produced by the impact of a projectile of the secondary of the binary asteroid Didymos, in the framework of the AIDA space mission project. Our results show how these evolutions and fates depend on the impact location on the secondary and ejection speeds of the ejecta. This information can be used to defined safe positions for an observing spacecraft and to better understand the outcome of an impact in the environment of a binary asteroid.

How do accretion discs break?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, Suzan

2016-07-01

Accretion discs are common in binary systems, and they are often found to be misaligned with respect to the binary orbit. The gravitational torque from a companion induces nodal precession in misaligned disc orbits. In this study, we first calculate whether this precession is strong enough to overcome the internal disc torques communicating angular momentum. We compare the disc precession torque with the disc viscous torque to determine whether the disc should warp or break. For typical parameters precession wins: the disc breaks into distinct planes that precess effectively independently. To check our analytical findings, we perform 3D hydrodynamical numerical simulations using the PHANTOM smoothed particle hydrodynamics code, and confirm that disc breaking is widespread and enhances accretion on to the central object. For some inclinations, the disc goes through strong Kozai cycles. Disc breaking promotes markedly enhanced and variable accretion and potentially produces high-energy particles or radiation through shocks. This would have significant implications for all binary systems: e.g. accretion outbursts in X-ray binaries and fuelling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. The behaviour we have discussed in this work is relevant to a variety of astrophysical systems, for example X-ray binaries, where the disc plane may be tilted by radiation warping, SMBH binaries, where accretion of misaligned gas can create effectively random inclinations and protostellar binaries, where a disc may be misaligned by a variety of effects such as binary capture/exchange, accretion after binary formation.

The first orbital solution for the massive colliding-wind binary HD 93162 (≡ WR 25)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamen, R.; Gosset, E.; Morrell, N. I.; Niemela, V. S.; Sana, H.; Nazé, Y.; Rauw, G.; Barbá, R. H.; Solivella, G. R.

2008-08-01

Since the discovery, with EINSTEIN, of strong X-ray emission associated with HD 93162, this object was recurrently predicted by some authors to be a colliding-wind binary system. However, radial-velocity variations that would prove the suspected binary nature have never been found so far. We spectroscopically monitored this object in order to investigate its possible variability and to provide an answer to the above-mentioned discordance. We derived radial velocities from spectroscopic data acquired mainly between 1994 and 2006, and searched for periodicities. For the first time, periodic radial-velocity variations are detected. Our analysis definitively shows that the Wolf-Rayet star WR 25 is actually an eccentric binary system with a probable period of about 208 days.

Modeling and Observations of Massive Binaries with the B[e] Phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobel, A.; Martayan, C.; Mehner, A.; Groh, J. H.

2017-02-01

We report a long-term high-resolution spectroscopic monitoring program of LBVs and candidate LBVs with Mercator-HERMES. Based on 7 years of data, we recently showed that supergiant MWC 314 is a (Galactic) semi-detached eccentric binary with stationary permitted and forbidden emission lines in the optical and near-IR region. MWC 314 is a luminous and massive probable LBV star showing a strongly orbitally-modulated wind variability. We observe discrete absorption components in P Cyg He I lines signaling large-scale wind structures. In 2014 XMM observed X-rays indicating strong wind-wind collision in the close binary system (a ≃1 AU). A VLT-NACO imaging survey recently revealed that MWC 314 is a triple hierarchical system. We present a 3-D non-LTE radiative transfer model of the extended asymmetric wind structure around the primary B0 supergiant for modeling the orbital variability of P Cyg absorption (v∞˜1200 km s-1) in He I lines. An analysis of the HERMES monitoring spectra of the Galactic LBV star MWC 930 however does not show clear indications of a spectroscopic binary. The detailed long-term spectroscopic variability of this massive B[e] star is very similar to the spectroscopic variability of the prototypical blue hypergiant S Dor in the LMC. We observe prominent P Cyg line shapes in MWC 930 that temporarily transform into split absorption line cores during variability phases of its S Dor cycle over the past decade with a brightening in V of ˜ 1.2 mag. The line splitting phenomenon is very similar to the split metal line cores observed in pulsating Yellow Hypergiants ρ Cas (F-K Ia+) and HR 8752 (A-K Ia+) with [Ca II] and [N II] emission lines. We propose the line core splitting in MWC 930 is due to optically thick central line emission produced in the inner ionized wind region becoming mechanically shock-excited with the increase of R* and decrease of Teff of the LBV.

Low Mass X-ray Binary 4U1705-44 Exiting an Extended High X-ray State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, Rebecca; Boyd, Patricia T.; Smale, Alan P.

2017-09-01

The neutron-star low-mass X-ray binary 4U1705-44, which exhibited high amplitude long-term X-ray variability on the order of hundreds of days during the 16-year continuous monitoring by the RXTE ASM (1995-2012), entered an anomalously long high state in July 2012 as observed by MAXI (2009-present).

A comparison of the performance of threshold criteria for binary classification in terms of predicted prevalence and Kappa

Treesearch

Elizabeth A. Freeman; Gretchen G. Moisen

2008-01-01

Modelling techniques used in binary classification problems often result in a predicted probability surface, which is then translated into a presence - absence classification map. However, this translation requires a (possibly subjective) choice of threshold above which the variable of interest is predicted to be present. The selection of this threshold value can have...

Cataloging the Praesepe Cluster: Identifying Interlopers and Binary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucey, Madeline R.; Gosnell, Natalie M.; Mann, Andrew; Douglas, Stephanie

2018-01-01

We present radial velocity measurements from an ongoing survey of the Praesepe open cluster using the WIYN 3.5m Telescope. Our target stars include 229 early-K to mid-M dwarfs with proper motion memberships that have been observed by the repurposed Kepler mission, K2. With this survey, we will provide a well-constrained membership list of the cluster. By removing interloping stars and determining the cluster binary frequency we can avoid systematic errors in our analysis of the K2 findings and more accurately determine exoplanet properties in the Praesepe cluster. Obtaining accurate exoplanet parameters in open clusters allows us to study the temporal dimension of exoplanet parameter space. We find Praesepe to have a mean radial velocity of 34.09 km/s and a velocity dispersion of 1.13 km/s, which is consistent with previous studies. We derive radial velocity membership probabilities for stars with ≥3 radial velocity measurements and compare against published membership probabilities. We also identify radial velocity variables and potential double-lined spectroscopic binaries. We plan to obtain more observations to determine the radial velocity membership of all the stars in our sample, as well as follow up on radial velocity variables to determine binary orbital solutions.

Research of Precataclysmic Variables with Radius Excesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deminova, N. R.; Shimansky, V. V.; Borisov, N. V.; Gabdeev, M. M.; Shimanskaya, N. N.

2017-06-01

The results of spectroscopic observations of the pre-cataclysmic variable NSVS 14256825, which is a HW Vir binary system, were analyzed. The chemical composition is determined, the radial velocities and equivalent widths of a given star are measured. The fundamental parameters of the components were determined (R1 = 0.166 R⊙ , M2 = 0.100 M⊙ , R2 = 0.122 R⊙). It is shown that the secondary component has a mass close to the mass of brown dwarfs. A comparison of two close binary systems is made: HS 2333 + 3927 and NSVS 14256825. A radius-to-mass relationship for the secondary components of the studied pre-cataclysmic variables is constructed. It is concluded that an excess of radii relative to model predictions for MS stars is observed in virtually all systems.

Detection of variable VHE γ-ray emission from the extra-galactic γ-ray binary LMC P3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HESS Collaboration; Abdalla, H.; Abramowski, A.; Aharonian, F.; Ait Benkhali, F.; Angüner, E. O.; Arakawa, M.; Armand, C.; Arrieta, M.; Backes, M.; Balzer, A.; Barnard, M.; Becherini, Y.; Becker Tjus, J.; Berge, D.; Bernhard, S.; Bernlöhr, K.; Blackwell, R.; Böttcher, M.; Boisson, C.; Bolmont, J.; Bonnefoy, S.; Bordas, P.; Bregeon, J.; Brun, F.; Brun, P.; Bryan, M.; Büchele, M.; Bulik, T.; Capasso, M.; Caroff, S.; Carosi, A.; Casanova, S.; Cerruti, M.; Chakraborty, N.; Chaves, R. C. G.; Chen, A.; Chevalier, J.; Colafrancesco, S.; Condon, B.; Conrad, J.; Davids, I. D.; Decock, J.; Deil, C.; Devin, J.; deWilt, P.; Dirson, L.; Djannati-Ataï, A.; Donath, A.; Drury, L. O.'C.; Dyks, J.; Edwards, T.; Egberts, K.; Emery, G.; Ernenwein, J.-P.; Eschbach, S.; Farnier, C.; Fegan, S.; Fernandes, M. V.; Fiasson, A.; Fontaine, G.; Funk, S.; Füßling, M.; Gabici, S.; Gallant, Y. A.; Garrigoux, T.; Gaté, F.; Giavitto, G.; Glawion, D.; Glicenstein, J. F.; Gottschall, D.; Grondin, M.-H.; Hahn, J.; Haupt, M.; Hawkes, J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henri, G.; Hermann, G.; Hinton, J. A.; Hofmann, W.; Hoischen, C.; Holch, T. L.; Holler, M.; Horns, D.; Ivascenko, A.; Iwasaki, H.; Jacholkowska, A.; Jamrozy, M.; Jankowsky, D.; Jankowsky, F.; Jingo, M.; Jouvin, L.; Jung-Richardt, I.; Kastendieck, M. A.; Katarzyński, K.; Katsuragawa, M.; Katz, U.; Kerszberg, D.; Khangulyan, D.; Khélifi, B.; King, J.; Klepser, S.; Klochkov, D.; Kluźniak, W.; Komin, Nu.; Kosack, K.; Krakau, S.; Kraus, M.; Krüger, P. P.; Laffon, H.; Lamanna, G.; Lau, J.; Lefaucheur, J.; Lemière, A.; Lemoine-Goumard, M.; Lenain, J.-P.; Leser, E.; Lohse, T.; Lorentz, M.; Liu, R.; López-Coto, R.; Lypova, I.; Malyshev, D.; Marandon, V.; Marcowith, A.; Mariaud, C.; Marx, R.; Maurin, G.; Maxted, N.; Mayer, M.; Meintjes, P. J.; Meyer, M.; Mitchell, A. M. W.; Moderski, R.; Mohamed, M.; Mohrmann, L.; Morå, K.; Moulin, E.; Murach, T.; Nakashima, S.; de Naurois, M.; Ndiyavala, H.; Niederwanger, F.; Niemiec, J.; Oakes, L.; O'Brien, P.; Odaka, H.; Ohm, S.; Ostrowski, M.; Oya, I.; Padovani, M.; Panter, M.; Parsons, R. D.; Pekeur, N. W.; Pelletier, G.; Perennes, C.; Petrucci, P.-O.; Peyaud, B.; Piel, Q.; Pita, S.; Poireau, V.; Prokhorov, D. A.; Prokoph, H.; Pühlhofer, G.; Punch, M.; Quirrenbach, A.; Raab, S.; Rauth, R.; Reimer, A.; Reimer, O.; Renaud, M.; de los Reyes, R.; Rieger, F.; Rinchiuso, L.; Romoli, C.; Rowell, G.; Rudak, B.; Rulten, C. B.; Sahakian, V.; Saito, S.; Sanchez, D. A.; Santangelo, A.; Sasaki, M.; Schlickeiser, R.; Schüssler, F.; Schulz, A.; Schwanke, U.; Schwemmer, S.; Seglar-Arroyo, M.; Seyffert, A. S.; Shafi, N.; Shilon, I.; Shiningayamwe, K.; Simoni, R.; Sol, H.; Spanier, F.; Spir-Jacob, M.; Stawarz, Ł.; Steenkamp, R.; Stegmann, C.; Steppa, C.; Sushch, I.; Takahashi, T.; Tavernet, J.-P.; Tavernier, T.; Taylor, A. M.; Terrier, R.; Tibaldo, L.; Tiziani, D.; Tluczykont, M.; Trichard, C.; Tsirou, M.; Tsuji, N.; Tuffs, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; van der Walt, D. J.; van Eldik, C.; van Rensburg, C.; van Soelen, B.; Vasileiadis, G.; Veh, J.; Venter, C.; Viana, A.; Vincent, P.; Vink, J.; Voisin, F.; Völk, H. J.; Vuillaume, T.; Wadiasingh, Z.; Wagner, S. J.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, R. M.; White, R.; Wierzcholska, A.; Willmann, P.; Wörnlein, A.; Wouters, D.; Yang, R.; Zaborov, D.; Zacharias, M.; Zanin, R.; Zdziarski, A. A.; Zech, A.; Zefi, F.; Ziegler, A.; Zorn, J.; Żywucka, N.

2018-03-01

Context. Recently, the high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) γ-ray emission from the object LMC P3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has been discovered to be modulated with a 10.3-day period, making it the first extra-galactic γ-ray binary. Aim. This work aims at the detection of very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) γ-ray emission and the search for modulation of the VHE signal with the orbital period of the binary system. Methods: LMC P3 has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.); the acceptance-corrected exposure time is 100 h. The data set has been folded with the known orbital period of the system in order to test for variability of the emission. Results: VHE γ-ray emission is detected with a statistical significance of 6.4 σ. The data clearly show variability which is phase-locked to the orbital period of the system. Periodicity cannot be deduced from the H.E.S.S. data set alone. The orbit-averaged luminosity in the 1-10 TeV energy range is (1.4 ± 0.2) × 1035 erg s-1. A luminosity of (5 ± 1) × 1035 erg s-1 is reached during 20% of the orbit. HE and VHE γ-ray emissions are anti-correlated. LMC P3 is the most luminous γ-ray binary known so far.

Detection of variable VHE γ -ray emission from the extra-galactic γ -ray binary LMC P3

DOE PAGES

Abdalla, H.; Abramowski, A.; Aharonian, F.; ...

2018-02-01

Context. Recently, the high-energy (HE, 0.1–100 GeV) γ-ray emission from the object LMC P3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has been discovered to be modulated with a 10.3-day period, making it the first extra-galactic γ-ray binary. Aim. This work aims at the detection of very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) γ-ray emission and the search for modulation of the VHE signal with the orbital period of the binary system. Methods. LMC P3 has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.); the acceptance-corrected exposure time is 100 h. The data set has been folded with the known orbital period ofmore » the system in order to test for variability of the emission. Results. VHE γ-ray emission is detected with a statistical significance of 6.4 σ. The data clearly show variability which is phase-locked to the orbital period of the system. Periodicity cannot be deduced from the H.E.S.S. data set alone. The orbit-averaged luminosity in the 1–10 TeV energy range is (1.4 ± 0.2) × 1035 erg s -1. A luminosity of (5 ± 1) × 1035 erg s -1 is reached during 20% of the orbit. HE and VHE γ-ray emissions are anti-correlated. In conclucion, LMC P3 is the most luminous γ-ray binary known so far.« less

Detection of variable VHE γ -ray emission from the extra-galactic γ -ray binary LMC P3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdalla, H.; Abramowski, A.; Aharonian, F.

Context. Recently, the high-energy (HE, 0.1–100 GeV) γ-ray emission from the object LMC P3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has been discovered to be modulated with a 10.3-day period, making it the first extra-galactic γ-ray binary. Aim. This work aims at the detection of very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) γ-ray emission and the search for modulation of the VHE signal with the orbital period of the binary system. Methods. LMC P3 has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.); the acceptance-corrected exposure time is 100 h. The data set has been folded with the known orbital period ofmore » the system in order to test for variability of the emission. Results. VHE γ-ray emission is detected with a statistical significance of 6.4 σ. The data clearly show variability which is phase-locked to the orbital period of the system. Periodicity cannot be deduced from the H.E.S.S. data set alone. The orbit-averaged luminosity in the 1–10 TeV energy range is (1.4 ± 0.2) × 1035 erg s -1. A luminosity of (5 ± 1) × 1035 erg s -1 is reached during 20% of the orbit. HE and VHE γ-ray emissions are anti-correlated. In conclucion, LMC P3 is the most luminous γ-ray binary known so far.« less

Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

PubMed

Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

2014-06-26

To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

Anomalous Low States and Long Term Variability in the Black Hole Binary LMC X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smale, Alan P.; Boyd, Patricia T.

2012-01-01

Rossi X-my Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal an extended very low X-ray state lasting from 2003 December 13 until 2004 March 18, unprecedented both in terms of its low luminosity (>15 times fainter than ever before seen in this source) and long duration (approx 3 times longer than a typical low/hard state excursion). During this event little to no source variability is observed on timescales of approx hours-weeks, and the X-ray spectrum implies an upper limit of 1.2 x 10(exp 35) erg/s, Five years later another extended low state occurs, lasting from 2008 December 11 until 2009 June 17. This event lasts nearly twice as long as the first, and while significant variability is observed, the source remains reliably in the low/hard spectral state for the approx 188 day duration. These episodes share some characteristics with the "anomalous low states" in the neutron star binary Her X-I. The average period and amplitude of the Variability of LMC X-3 have different values between these episodes. We characterize the long-term variability of LMC X-3 before and after the two events using conventional and nonlinear time series analysis methods, and show that, as is the case in Her X-I, the characteristic amplitude of the variability is related to its characteristic timescale. Furthermore, the relation is in the same direction in both systems. This suggests that a similar mechanism gives rise to the long-term variability, which in the case of Her X-I is reliably modeled with a tilted, warped precessing accretion disk.

Temperature dependent structural and dynamical properties of liquid Cu80Si20 binary alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suthar, P. H.; Shah, A. K.; Gajjar, P. N.

2018-05-01

Ashcroft and Langreth binary structure factor have been used to study for pair correlation function and the study of dynamical variable: velocity auto correlation functions, power spectrum and mean square displacement calculated based on the static harmonic well approximation in liquid Cu80Si20 binary alloy at wide temperature range (1140K, 1175K, 1210K, 1250K, 1373K, 1473K.). The effective interaction for the binary alloy is computed by our well established local pseudopotential along with the exchange and correction functions Sarkar et al(S). The negative dip in velocity auto correlation decreases as the various temperature is increases. For power spectrum as temperature increases, the peak of power spectrum shifts toward lower ω. Good agreement with the experiment is observed for the pair correlation functions. Velocity auto correlation showing the transferability of the local pseudopotential used for metallic liquid environment in the case of copper based binary alloys.

The first orbital solution for the massive colliding-wind binary HD 93162 (≡WR 25)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamen, R.; Gosset, E.; Morrell, N.; Niemela, V.; Sana, H.; Nazé, Y.; Rauw, G.; Barbá, R.; Solivella, G.

2006-12-01

Context: Since the discovery, with the EINSTEIN satellite, of strong X-ray emission associated with HD 93162 (≡WR 25), this object has been predicted to be a colliding-wind binary system. However, radial-velocity variations that would prove the suspected binary nature have yet to be found. Aims: We spectroscopically monitored this object to investigate its possible variability to address this discordance. Methods: We compiled the largest available radial-velocity data set for this star to look for variations that might be due to binary motion. We derived radial velocities from spectroscopic data acquired mainly between 1994 and 2006, and searched these radial velocities for periodicities using different numerical methods. Results: For the first time, periodic radial-velocity variations are detected. Our analysis definitively shows that the Wolf-Rayet star WR 25 is an eccentric binary system with a probable period of about 208 days.

Neighborhood adversity, ethnic diversity, and weak social cohesion and social networks predict high rates of maternal depressive symptoms: a critical realist ecological study in South Western Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Eastwood, John Graeme; Kemp, Lynn Ann; Jalaludin, Bin Badrudin; Phung, Hai Ngoc

2013-01-01

The aim of the study reported here is to explore ecological covariate and latent variable associations with perinatal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney for the purpose of informing subsequent theory generation of perinatal context, depression, and the developmental origins of health and disease. Mothers (n = 15,389) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at two to three weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS)> 9 and > 12. Aggregated EPDS > 9 was analyzed for 101 suburbs. Suburb-level variables were drawn from the 2001 Australian Census, New South Wales Crime Statistics, and aggregated individual-level risk factors. Analysis included exploratory factor analysis, univariate and multivariate likelihood, and Bayesian linear regression with conditional autoregressive components. The exploratory factor analysis identified six factors: neighborhood adversity, social cohesion, health behaviors, housing quality, social services, and support networks. Variables associated with neighborhood adversity, social cohesion, social networks, and ethnic diversity were consistently associated with aggregated depressive symptoms. The findings support the theoretical proposition that neighborhood adversity causes maternal psychological distress and depression within the context of social buffers including social networks, social cohesion, and social services.

Determinants of stillbirth among women deliveries at Amhara region, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Lakew, Demeke; Tesfaye, Dereje; Mekonnen, Haile

2017-11-13

Stillbirth is one of general medical issues that could contribute significantly to creating nations like Ethiopia. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and related factors of stillbirth among deliveries at Amhara region, Ethiopia. The study used the Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS) data collected from 2555 eligible Amhara region women in 2014. Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression analysis was used. The prevalence of stillbirth outcomes became 85 per 1000 (total live birth). Besides, majority of women did not attend any formal education and had no antenatal care follow up. Women whose age at first birth below 18 years were 1859(72.8%) and the mean preceding birth interval were 33.6 months. Even women who attended primary and above education were about 50% and they were less likely to have had stillbirth outcomes than those who had no education (AOR: 0.505, 95% CI 0.311-0.820) and women having higher household wealth index were less likely to have had stillbirth outcomes as it is compared to the reference category. Moreover, women having preceding birth interval above 36 months were about 89% of less likely to end up stillbirth outcomes as compared to women having preceding birth interval below 24 months (AOR: 0.109, 95% CI 0.071-8.0.168). It could be inferred that a stillbirth result is one of the general medical issues in Amhara Region. Among different factors considered in this study, age, age at first birth, wealth index, birth order number and preceding birth interval in months were found to be significantly associated factors for stillbirth. Therefore, more awareness of early birth, widening birth interval, enhancing maternal care (for aged women) and early birth order number could be recommended.

The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity score predicts mortality and morbidity after congenital heart surgery.

PubMed

Bojan, Mirela; Gerelli, Sébastien; Gioanni, Simone; Pouard, Philippe; Vouhé, Pascal

2011-04-01

The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC) score has been proposed for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. The score is the sum of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score, largely used but poorly related to mortality and morbidity, and of the Comprehensive Complexity items accounting for comorbidities and procedure-specific and anatomic variability. This study aims to demonstrate the ability of the ACC score to predict 30-day mortality and morbidity assessed by the length of the intensive care unit (ICU) stay. We retrospectively enrolled patients undergoing congenital heart surgery in our institution. We modeled the ACC score as a continuous variable, mortality as a binary variable, and length of ICU stay as a censored variable. For each mortality and morbidity model we performed internal validation by bootstrapping and assessed overall performance by R(2), calibration by the calibration slope, and discrimination by the c index. Among all 1,454 patients enrolled, 30-day mortality rate was 3.4% and median length of ICU stay was 3 days. The ACC score strongly related to mortality, but related to length of ICU stay only during the first postoperative week. For the mortality model, R(2) = 0.24, calibration slope = 0.98, c index = 0.86, and 95% confidence interval was 0.82 to 0.91. For the morbidity model, R(2) = 0.094, calibration slope = 0.94, c index = 0.64, and 95% confidence interval was 0.62 to 0.66. The ACC score predicts 30-day mortality and length of ICU stay during the first postoperative week. The score is an adequate tool for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. Copyright © 2011 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Light curve solutions of the eccentric binaries KIC 10992733, KIC 5632781, KIC 10026136 and their out-of-eclipse variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjurkchieva, Diana; Vasileva, Doroteya

2018-01-01

We determined the orbits and stellar parameters of three eccentric eclipsing binaries by light curve solutions of their Kepler data. KIC 10992733 and KIC 5632781 undergo total eclipses while KIC 10026136 reveals partial eclipses. The components of the targets are G and K stars. KIC 10992733 exhibited variations which were attributed to variable visibility of spot(s) on asynchronously rotating component. KIC 5632781 and KIC 1002613 reveal tidally-induced features at periastron, i.e. they might be considered as eclipsing heartbeat stars. The characteristics of the periastron features (shape, width and amplitude) confirm the theoretical predictions.

Chromospherically active stars. IV - HD 178450 = V478 Lyr: An early-type BY Draconis type binary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fekel, Francis C.

1988-01-01

It is shown that the variable star HD 178450 = V478 Lyr is a chromospherically active G8 V single-lined spectroscopic binary with a period of 2.130514 days. This star is characterized by strong UV emission features and a filled-in H-alpha absorption line which is variable in strength. Classified as an early-type BY Draconis system, it is similar to the BY Dra star HD 175742 = V775 Her. The unseen secondary of HD 178450 has a mass of about 0.3 solar masses and is believed to be an M2-M3 dwarf.

The clumpy absorber in the high-mass X-ray binary Vela X-1

DOE PAGES

Grinberg, V.; Hell, N.; El Mellah, I.; ...

2017-12-15

Bright and eclipsing, the high-mass X-ray binary Vela X-1 offers a unique opportunity to study accretion onto a neutron star from clumpy winds of O/B stars and to disentangle the complex accretion geometry of these systems. In Chandra-HETGS spectroscopy at orbital phase ~0.25, when our line of sight towards the source does not pass through the large-scale accretion structure such as the accretion wake, we observe changes in overall spectral shape on timescales of a few kiloseconds. This spectral variability is, at least in part, caused by changes in overall absorption and we show that such strongly variable absorption cannotmore » be caused by unperturbed clumpy winds of O/B stars. We detect line features from high and low ionization species of silicon, magnesium, and neon whose strengths and presence depend on the overall level of absorption. Finally, these features imply a co-existence of cool and hot gas phases in the system, which we interpret as a highly variable, structured accretion flow close to the compact object such as has been recently seen in simulations of wind accretion in high-mass X-ray binaries.« less

The Clusters AgeS Experiment (CASE). Variable Stars in the Field of the Globular Cluster M12

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaluzny, J.; Thompson, I. B.; Narloch, W.; Pych, W.; Rozyczka, M.

2015-09-01

The field of the globular cluster M12 (NGC 6218) was monitored between 1995 and 2009 in a search for variable stars. BV light curves were obtained for thirty-six periodic or likely periodic variable stars. Thirty-four of these are new detections. Among the latter we identified twenty proper-motion members of the cluster: six detached or semi-detached eclipsing binaries, five contact binaries, five SX Phe pulsators, and three yellow stragglers. Two of the eclipsing binaries are located in the turnoff region, one on the lower main sequence and the remaining three among the blue stragglers. Two contact systems are blue stragglers, and the remaining three reside in the turnoff region. In the blue straggler region a total of 103 objects were found, of which 42 are proper motion members of M12, and another four are field stars. 55 of the remaining objects are located within two core radii from the center of the cluster, and as such they are likely genuine blue stragglers. We also report the discoveries of a radial color gradient of M12, and the shortest period among contact systems in globular clusters in general.

The clumpy absorber in the high-mass X-ray binary Vela X-1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grinberg, V.; Hell, N.; El Mellah, I.

Bright and eclipsing, the high-mass X-ray binary Vela X-1 offers a unique opportunity to study accretion onto a neutron star from clumpy winds of O/B stars and to disentangle the complex accretion geometry of these systems. In Chandra-HETGS spectroscopy at orbital phase ~0.25, when our line of sight towards the source does not pass through the large-scale accretion structure such as the accretion wake, we observe changes in overall spectral shape on timescales of a few kiloseconds. This spectral variability is, at least in part, caused by changes in overall absorption and we show that such strongly variable absorption cannotmore » be caused by unperturbed clumpy winds of O/B stars. We detect line features from high and low ionization species of silicon, magnesium, and neon whose strengths and presence depend on the overall level of absorption. Finally, these features imply a co-existence of cool and hot gas phases in the system, which we interpret as a highly variable, structured accretion flow close to the compact object such as has been recently seen in simulations of wind accretion in high-mass X-ray binaries.« less

Is the placebo powerless? An analysis of clinical trials comparing placebo with no treatment.

PubMed

Hróbjartsson, A; Gøtzsche, P C

2001-05-24

Placebo treatments have been reported to help patients with many diseases, but the quality of the evidence supporting this finding has not been rigorously evaluated. We conducted a systematic review of clinical trials in which patients were randomly assigned to either placebo or no treatment. A placebo could be pharmacologic (e.g., a tablet), physical (e.g., a manipulation), or psychological (e.g., a conversation). We identified 130 trials that met our inclusion criteria. After the exclusion of 16 trials without relevant data on outcomes, there were 32 with binary outcomes (involving 3795 patients, with a median of 51 patients per trial) and 82 with continuous outcomes (involving 4730 patients, with a median of 27 patients per trial). As compared with no treatment, placebo had no significant effect on binary outcomes (pooled relative risk of an unwanted outcome with placebo, 0.95; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.02), regardless of whether these outcomes were subjective or objective. For the trials with continuous outcomes, placebo had a beneficial effect (pooled standardized mean difference in the value for an unwanted outcome between the placebo and untreated groups, -0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.38 to -0.19), but the effect decreased with increasing sample size, indicating a possible bias related to the effects of small trials. The pooled standardized mean difference was significant for the trials with subjective outcomes (-0.36; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.47 to -0.25) but not for those with objective outcomes. In 27 trials involving the treatment of pain, placebo had a beneficial effect (-0.27; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.40 to -0.15). This corresponded to a reduction in the intensity of pain of 6.5 mm on a 100-mm visual-analogue scale. We found little evidence in general that placebos had powerful clinical effects. Although placebos had no significant effects on objective or binary outcomes, they had possible small benefits in studies with continuous subjective outcomes and for the treatment of pain. Outside the setting of clinical trials, there is no justification for the use of placebos.

Immigrant maternal depression and social networks. A multilevel Bayesian spatial logistic regression in South Western Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Eastwood, John G; Jalaludin, Bin B; Kemp, Lynn A; Phung, Hai N; Barnett, Bryanne E W

2013-09-01

The purpose is to explore the multilevel spatial distribution of depressive symptoms among migrant mothers in South Western Sydney and to identify any group level associations that could inform subsequent theory building and local public health interventions. Migrant mothers (n=7256) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale scores (EPDS) of >9 and >12. Individual level variables included were: financial income, self-reported maternal health, social support network, emotional support, practical support, baby trouble sleeping, baby demanding and baby not content. The group level variable reported here is aggregated social support networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical multilevel spatial modelling with conditional autoregression. Migrant mothers were at higher risk of having depressive symptoms if they lived in a community with predominantly Australian-born mothers and strong social capital as measured by aggregated social networks. These findings suggest that migrant mothers are socially isolated and current home visiting services should be strengthened for migrant mothers living in communities where they may have poor social networks. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Smooth Scalar-on-Image Regression via Spatial Bayesian Variable Selection

PubMed Central

Goldsmith, Jeff; Huang, Lei; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.

2013-01-01

We develop scalar-on-image regression models when images are registered multidimensional manifolds. We propose a fast and scalable Bayes inferential procedure to estimate the image coefficient. The central idea is the combination of an Ising prior distribution, which controls a latent binary indicator map, and an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field, which controls the smoothness of the nonzero coefficients. The model is fit using a single-site Gibbs sampler, which allows fitting within minutes for hundreds of subjects with predictor images containing thousands of locations. The code is simple and is provided in less than one page in the Appendix. We apply this method to a neuroimaging study where cognitive outcomes are regressed on measures of white matter microstructure at every voxel of the corpus callosum for hundreds of subjects. PMID:24729670

Statistical analysis of subjective preferences for video enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Russell L.; Satgunam, PremNandhini; Bronstad, P. Matthew; Peli, Eli

2010-02-01

Measuring preferences for moving video quality is harder than for static images due to the fleeting and variable nature of moving video. Subjective preferences for image quality can be tested by observers indicating their preference for one image over another. Such pairwise comparisons can be analyzed using Thurstone scaling (Farrell, 1999). Thurstone (1927) scaling is widely used in applied psychology, marketing, food tasting and advertising research. Thurstone analysis constructs an arbitrary perceptual scale for the items that are compared (e.g. enhancement levels). However, Thurstone scaling does not determine the statistical significance of the differences between items on that perceptual scale. Recent papers have provided inferential statistical methods that produce an outcome similar to Thurstone scaling (Lipovetsky and Conklin, 2004). Here, we demonstrate that binary logistic regression can analyze preferences for enhanced video.

The Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment. Eclipsing Binary Stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyrzykowski, L.; Udalski, A.; Kubiak, M.; Szymanski, M. K.; Zebrun, K.; Soszynski, I.; Wozniak, P. R.; Pietrzynski, G.; Szewczyk, O.

2004-03-01

We present new version of the OGLE-II catalog of eclipsing binary stars detected in the Small Magellanic Cloud, based on Difference Image Analysis catalog of variable stars in the Magellanic Clouds containing data collected from 1997 to 2000. We found 1351 eclipsing binary stars in the central 2.4 square degree area of the SMC. 455 stars are newly discovered objects, not found in the previous release of the catalog. The eclipsing objects were selected with the automatic search algorithm based on the artificial neural network. The full catalog is accessible from the OGLE Internet archive.

Outcome-based anatomic criteria for defining the hostile aortic neck.

PubMed

Jordan, William D; Ouriel, Kenneth; Mehta, Manish; Varnagy, David; Moore, William M; Arko, Frank R; Joye, James; de Vries, Jean-Paul P M

2015-06-01

There is abundant evidence linking hostile proximal aortic neck anatomy to poor outcome after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR), yet the definition of hostile anatomy varies from study to study. This current analysis was undertaken to identify anatomic criteria that are most predictive of success or failure at the aortic neck after EVAR. The study group comprised 221 patients in the Aneurysm Treatment using the Heli-FX Aortic Securement System Global Registry (ANCHOR) clinical trial, a population enriched with patients with challenging aortic neck anatomy and failure of sealing. Imaging protocols were not protocol specified but were performed according to the institution's standard of care. Core laboratory analysis assessed the three-dimensional centerline-reformatted computed tomography scans. Failure at the aortic neck was defined by type Ia endoleak occurring at the time of the initial endograft implantation or during follow-up. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the value of each anatomic measure in the classification of aortic neck success and failure and to identify optimal thresholds of discrimination. Binary logistic regression was performed after excluding highly intercorrelated variables, creating a final model with significant predictors of outcome after EVAR. Among the 221 patients, 121 (54.8%) remained free of type Ia endoleak and 100 (45.2%) did not. Type Ia endoleaks presented immediately after endograft deployment in 58 (58.0%) or during follow-up in 42 (42.0%). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis identified 12 variables where the classification of patients with type Ia endoleak was significantly more accurate than chance alone. Increased aortic neck diameter at the lowest renal artery (P = .013) and at 5 mm (P = .008), 10 mm (P = .008), and 15 mm (P = .010) distally; aneurysm sac diameter (P = .001), common iliac artery diameters (right, P = .012; left, P = .032), and a conical (P = .049) neck configuration were predictive of endoleak. By contrast, increased aortic neck length (P = .050), a funnel-shaped aortic neck (P = .036), and neck mural thrombus content, as measured by average thickness (P = .044) or degrees of circumferential coverage (P = .029), were protective against endoleak. Binary logistic regression identified three variables independently predictive of type Ia endoleak. Neck diameter at the lowest renal artery (P = .002, cutpoint 26 mm) and neck length (P = .017, cutpoint 17 mm) were associated with endoleak, whereas some mural neck thrombus content was protective (P = .001, cutpoint 11° of circumferential coverage). A limited number of independent anatomic variables are predictive of type Ia endoleak after EVAR, including aortic neck diameter and aortic neck length, whereas mural thrombus in the neck is protective. This study suggests that anatomic measures with identifiable threshold cutpoints should be considered when defining the hostile aortic neck and assessing the risk of complications after EVAR. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. All rights reserved.

Recent Observations of the Neglected Southern Eclipsing Binary Systems V343 Cen, UY Mus, HT Aps, and V1961 Sgr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulkner, D. R.; Samec, R. G.; Stoddard, M. L.; McKenzie, R.; Rebar, D.; Lavoie, G. D.; Moody, S.; Miller, J.; Van Hamme, W.

2002-12-01

As a part of our continuing search for solar type binaries with impacting gas streams, we present light curves of V343 Cen, UY Mus, HT Aps, and V1961 Sgr. These are all neglected variables whose observing histories show little or no observations since their discovery. The CCD observations were taken at the 0.9-m at CTI0 in the UBVRI Johnson-Cousins system. The observations were taken in on 2002, May 31-June 8 and 2001, May 16 - 23 respectively. UY Mus is a near contact binary with a large difference in eclipse depths of V = 0.67 mag. Otherwise the curve appears symmetric. The times of minimum light determined from our data are HJD Min I = 242047.62316(6) and Min II = 2452050.4874(3) where the value in parentheses is the standard error in the last decimal place. V1961 Sgr (GCVS 6848 485) is a W UMa binary with a difference in eclipse depths of V = 0.11 mag and a possible variable spot area causing a V = 0.04 mag variation in MAX I from night to night. HT Aps is a near contact solar type binary with a large difference in eclipse depths of V= 0.47 mag and a somewhat asymmetric (difference in maxima, V= 0.4 mag) light curve. It is a possibly a candidate for a binary with a gas stream. One time of minimum light determined from our data is HJD Min I = 2452331.63725 (12). V343 Cen is a near contact binary with a large difference in eclipse depths of V= 0.42 mag and distortions that give evidence of a gas stream collision. The difference in maxima is V = 0.07 mag. The curve shows little variation over the 4 day interval of observation. Light curves analyses, new period determinations and photometric data will be presented for these variables. Acknowledgements: We wish to thank the American Astronomical Society for their continued support of our undergraduate research programs through their small research grants. Faulkner and Samec were visiting Astronomers, Cerro Tololo InterAmerican Observatory, National Optical Astronomical Observatories, which are operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. under contract with the National Science Foundation.

Rotational properties of the binary and non-binary populations in the trans-Neptunian belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirouin, A.; Noll, K. S.; Ortiz, J. L.; Morales, N.

2014-09-01

We present results for the short-term variability of binary trans-Neptunian objects (BTNOs). We performed CCD photometric observations using the 3.58 m Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG), the 1.5 m Sierra Nevada Observatory (OSN) telescope, and the 1.23 m Centro Astronómico Hispano Alemán (CAHA) telescope at Calar Alto Observatory. We present results based on five years of observations and report the short-term variability of six BTNOs. Our sample contains three classical objects: (174567) 2003 MW12, or Varda, (120347) 2004 SB60, or Salacia, and 2002 VT130; one detached disk object: (229762) 2007 UK126; and two resonant objects: (341520) 2007 TY430 and (38628) 2000 EB173, or Huya. For each target, possible rotational periods and/or photometric amplitudes are reported. We also derived some physical properties from their light curves, such as density, primary and secondary sizes, and albedo. We compiled and analyzed a vast light curve database for TNOs including centaurs to determine the light-curve amplitude and spin frequency distributions for the binary and non-binary populations. The mean rotational periods, from the Maxwellian fits to the frequency distributions, are 8.63 ± 0.52 h for the entire sample, 8.37 ± 0.58 h for the sample without the binary population, and 10.11 ± 1.19 h for the binary population alone. Because the centaurs are collisionally more evolved, their rotational periods might not be so primordial. We computed a mean rotational period, from the Maxwellian fit, of 8.86 ± 0.58 h for the sample without the centaur population, and of 8.64 ± 0.67 h considering a sample without the binary and the centaur populations. According to this analysis, regular TNOs spin faster than binaries, which is compatible with the tidal interaction of the binaries. Finally, we examined possible formation models for several systems studied in this work and by our team in previous papers. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgFull Table 1 is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/569/A3

Impact of high lipoprotein(a) levels on in-stent restenosis and long-term clinical outcomes of angina pectoris patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents in Asian population.

PubMed

Park, Sang-Ho; Rha, Seung-Woon; Choi, Byoung-Geol; Park, Ji-Young; Jeon, Ung; Seo, Hong-Seog; Kim, Eung-Ju; Na, Jin-Oh; Choi, Cheol-Ung; Kim, Jin-Won; Lim, Hong-Euy; Park, Chang-Gyu; Oh, Dong-Joo

2015-06-01

Lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) is known to be associated with cardiovascular complications and atherothrombotic properties in general populations. However, it has not been examined whether Lp(a) levels are able to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents (DES). A total of 595 consecutive patients with angina pectoris who underwent elective PCI with DES were enrolled from 2004 to 2010. The patients were divided into two groups according to the levels of Lp(a): Lp(a) < 50 mg/dL (n = 485 patients), and Lp(a) ≥ 50 mg/dL (n = 111 patients). The 6-9-month angiographic outcomes and 3-year cumulative major clinical outcomes were compared between the two groups. Binary restenosis occurred in 26 of 133 lesions (19.8%) in the high Lp(a) group and 43 of 550 lesions (7.9%) in the low Lp(a) group (P = 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the reference vessel diameter, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, total lesion length, and Lp(a) ≥ 50 mg/dL were predictors of binary restenosis. In the Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, Lp(a) > 50 mg/dL was significantly associated with the 3-year adverse clinical outcomes including any myocardial infarction, revascularization (target lesion revascularization (TLR) and target vessel revascularization (TVR)), TLR-major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), TVR-MACE, and All-MACEs. In our study, high Lp(a) level ≥ 50 mg/dL in angina pectoris patients undergoing elective PCI with DES was significantly associated with binary restenosis and 3-year adverse clinical outcomes in an Asian population. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Toxicity Relationship Analysis Program (TRAP) Version 1.21

EPA Science Inventory

The Toxicity Relationship Analysis Program (TRAP) fits a sigmoidal toxic response versus exposure variable relationship to standard toxicity test data. It will analyze binary (e.g., survival) or continuous (e.g., growth, reproduction) biological effect variables as a function o...

Genders and Individual Treatment Progress in (Non-)Binary Trans Individuals.

PubMed

Koehler, Andreas; Eyssel, Jana; Nieder, Timo O

2018-01-01

Health care for transgender and transsexual (ie, trans) individuals has long been based on a binary understanding of gender (ie, feminine vs masculine). However, the existence of non-binary or genderqueer (NBGQ) genders is increasingly recognized by academic and/or health care professionals. To gain insight into the individual health care experiences and needs of binary and NBGQ individuals to improve their health care outcomes and experience. Data were collected using an online survey study on experiences with trans health care. The non-clinical sample consisted of 415 trans individuals. An individual treatment progress score was calculated to report and compare participants' individual progress toward treatment completion and consider the individual treatment needs and definitions of completed treatment (ie, amount and types of different treatments needed to complete one's medical transition). Main outcome measures were (i) general and trans-related sociodemographic data and (ii) received and planned treatments. Participants reported binary (81.7%) and different NBGQ (18.3%) genders. The 2 groups differed significantly in basic demographic data (eg, mean age; P < .05). NBGQ participants reported significantly fewer received treatments compared with binary participants. For planned treatments, binary participants reported more treatments related to primary sex characteristics only. Binary participants required more treatments for a completed treatment than NBGQ participants (6.0 vs 4.0). There were no differences with regard to individual treatment progress score. Because traditional binary-focused treatment practice could have hindered NBGQ individuals from accessing trans health care or sufficiently articulating their needs, health care professionals are encouraged to provide a holistic and individual treatment approach and acknowledge genders outside the gender binary to address their needs appropriately. Because the study was made inclusive for non-patients and individuals who decided against trans health care, bias from a participant-patient double role was prevented, which is the reason the results are likely to have a higher level of validity than a clinical sample. However, because of the anonymity of an online survey, it remains unclear whether NBGQ individuals live according to their gender identity in their everyday life. The study highlights the broad spectrum of genders in trans-individuals and associated health care needs and provides a novel approach to measure individual treatment progress in trans individuals. Koehler A, Eyssel J, Nieder TO. Genders and Individual Treatment Progress in (Non-)Binary Trans Individuals. J Sex Med 2018;15:102-113. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

pH-specific hydrothermal assembly of binary and ternary Pb(II)-(O,N-carboxylic acid) metal organic framework compounds: correlation of aqueous solution speciation with variable dimensionality solid-state lattice architecture and spectroscopic signatures.

PubMed

Gabriel, C; Perikli, M; Raptopoulou, C P; Terzis, A; Psycharis, V; Mateescu, C; Jakusch, T; Kiss, T; Bertmer, M; Salifoglou, A

2012-09-03

Hydrothermal pH-specific reactivity in the binary/ternary systems of Pb(II) with the carboxylic acids N-hydroxyethyl-iminodiacetic acid (Heida), 1,3-diamino-2-hydroxypropane-N,N,N',N'-tetraacetic acid (Dpot), and 1,10-phenanthroline (Phen) afforded the new well-defined crystalline compounds [Pb(Heida)](n)·nH(2)O(1), [Pb(Phen)(Heida)]·4H(2)O(2), and [Pb(3)(NO(3))(Dpot)](n)(3). All compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, FT-IR, solution or/and solid-state NMR, and single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The structures in 1-2 reveal the presence of a Pb(II) center coordinated to one Heida ligand, with 1 exhibiting a two-dimensional (2D) lattice extending to a three-dimensional (3D) one through H-bonding interactions. The concurrent aqueous speciation study of the binary Pb(II)-Heida system projects species complementing the synthetic efforts, thereby lending credence to a global structural speciation strategy in investigating binary/ternary Pb(II)-Heida/Phen systems. The involvement of Phen in 2 projects the significance of nature and reactivity potential of N-aromatic chelators, disrupting the binary lattice in 1 and influencing the nature of the ultimately arising ternary 3D lattice. 3 is a ternary coordination polymer, where Pb(II)-Dpot coordination leads to a 2D metal-organic-framework material with unique architecture. The collective physicochemical properties of 1-3 formulate the salient features of variable dimensionality metal-organic-framework lattices in binary/ternary Pb(II)-(hydroxy-carboxylate) structures, based on which new Pb(II) materials with distinct architecture and spectroscopic signature can be rationally designed and pursued synthetically.

EVOLUTION OF CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES AND RELATED BINARIES CONTAINING A WHITE DWARF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalomeni, B.; Rappaport, S.; Molnar, M.

We present a binary evolution study of cataclysmic variables (CVs) and related systems with white dwarf (WD) accretors, including for example, AM CVn systems, classical novae, supersoft X-ray sources (SXSs), and systems with giant donor stars. Our approach intentionally avoids the complications associated with population synthesis algorithms, thereby allowing us to present the first truly comprehensive exploration of all of the subsequent binary evolution pathways that zero-age CVs might follow (assuming fully non-conservative, Roche-lobe overflow onto an accreting WD) using the sophisticated binary stellar evolution code MESA. The grid consists of 56,000 initial models, including 14 WD accretor masses, 43more » donor-star masses (0.1–4.7 M {sub ⊙}), and 100 orbital periods. We explore evolution tracks in the orbital period and donor-mass ( P {sub orb}– M {sub don}) plane in terms of evolution dwell times, masses of the WD accretor, accretion rate, and chemical composition of the center and surface of the donor star. We report on the differences among the standard CV tracks, those with giant donor stars, and ultrashort period systems. We show where in parameter space one can expect to find SXSs, present a diagnostic to distinguish among different evolutionary paths to forming AM CVn binaries, quantify how the minimum orbital period in CVs depends on the chemical composition of the donor star, and update the P {sub orb}( M {sub wd}) relation for binaries containing WDs whose progenitors lost their envelopes via stable Roche-lobe overflow. Finally, we indicate where in the P {sub orb}– M {sub don} the accretion disks will tend to be stable against the thermal-viscous instability, and where gravitational radiation signatures may be found with LISA.« less

Evolution of Cataclysmic Variables and Related Binaries Containing a White Dwarf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalomeni, B.; Nelson, L.; Rappaport, S.; Molnar, M.; Quintin, J.; Yakut, K.

2016-12-01

We present a binary evolution study of cataclysmic variables (CVs) and related systems with white dwarf (WD) accretors, including for example, AM CVn systems, classical novae, supersoft X-ray sources (SXSs), and systems with giant donor stars. Our approach intentionally avoids the complications associated with population synthesis algorithms, thereby allowing us to present the first truly comprehensive exploration of all of the subsequent binary evolution pathways that zero-age CVs might follow (assuming fully non-conservative, Roche-lobe overflow onto an accreting WD) using the sophisticated binary stellar evolution code MESA. The grid consists of 56,000 initial models, including 14 WD accretor masses, 43 donor-star masses (0.1-4.7 M ⊙), and 100 orbital periods. We explore evolution tracks in the orbital period and donor-mass (P orb-M don) plane in terms of evolution dwell times, masses of the WD accretor, accretion rate, and chemical composition of the center and surface of the donor star. We report on the differences among the standard CV tracks, those with giant donor stars, and ultrashort period systems. We show where in parameter space one can expect to find SXSs, present a diagnostic to distinguish among different evolutionary paths to forming AM CVn binaries, quantify how the minimum orbital period in CVs depends on the chemical composition of the donor star, and update the P orb(M wd) relation for binaries containing WDs whose progenitors lost their envelopes via stable Roche-lobe overflow. Finally, we indicate where in the P orb-M don the accretion disks will tend to be stable against the thermal-viscous instability, and where gravitational radiation signatures may be found with LISA.

No cataclysmic variables missing: higher merger rate brings into agreement observed and predicted space densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belloni, Diogo; Schreiber, Matthias R.; Zorotovic, Mónica; Iłkiewicz, Krystian; Hurley, Jarrod R.; Giersz, Mirek; Lagos, Felipe

2018-06-01

The predicted and observed space density of cataclysmic variables (CVs) have been for a long time discrepant by at least an order of magnitude. The standard model of CV evolution predicts that the vast majority of CVs should be period bouncers, whose space density has been recently measured to be ρ ≲ 2 × 10-5 pc-3. We performed population synthesis of CVs using an updated version of the Binary Stellar Evolution (BSE) code for single and binary star evolution. We find that the recently suggested empirical prescription of consequential angular momentum loss (CAML) brings into agreement predicted and observed space densities of CVs and period bouncers. To progress with our understanding of CV evolution it is crucial to understand the physical mechanism behind empirical CAML. Our changes to the BSE code are also provided in details, which will allow the community to accurately model mass transfer in interacting binaries in which degenerate objects accrete from low-mass main-sequence donor stars.

The incidence of stellar mergers and mass gainers among massive stars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Mink, S. E.; Sana, H.; Langer, N.

2014-02-10

Because the majority of massive stars are born as members of close binary systems, populations of massive main-sequence stars contain stellar mergers and products of binary mass transfer. We simulate populations of massive stars accounting for all major binary evolution effects based on the most recent binary parameter statistics and extensively evaluate the effect of model uncertainties. Assuming constant star formation, we find that 8{sub −4}{sup +9}% of a sample of early-type stars are the products of a merger resulting from a close binary system. In total we find that 30{sub −15}{sup +10}% of massive main-sequence stars are the productsmore » of binary interaction. We show that the commonly adopted approach to minimize the effects of binaries on an observed sample by excluding systems detected as binaries through radial velocity campaigns can be counterproductive. Systems with significant radial velocity variations are mostly pre-interaction systems. Excluding them substantially enhances the relative incidence of mergers and binary products in the non-radial velocity variable sample. This poses a challenge for testing single stellar evolutionary models. It also raises the question of whether certain peculiar classes of stars, such as magnetic O stars, are the result of binary interaction and it emphasizes the need to further study the effect of binarity on the diagnostics that are used to derive the fundamental properties (star-formation history, initial mass function, mass-to-light ratio) of stellar populations nearby and at high redshift.« less

Inter-Longitude Astronomy (ILA) Project: Current Highlights And Perspectives. I. Magnetic vs. Non-Magnetic Interacting Binary Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andronov, I. L.; Antoniuk, K. A.; Baklanov, A. V.; Breus, V. V.; Burwitz, V.; Chinarova, L. L.; Chochol, D.; Dubovsky, P. A.; Han, W.; Hegedus, T.; Henden, A.; Hric, L.; Chun-Hwey, Kim; Yonggi, Kim; Kolesnikov, S. V.; Kudzej, I.; Liakos, A.; Niarchos, P. G.; Oksanen, A.; Patkos, L.; Petrik, K.; Pit', N. V.; Shakhovskoy, N. M.; Virnina, N. A.; Yoon, J.; Zola, S.

2010-12-01

We present a review of highlights of our photometric and photo-polarimetric monitoring and mathematical modeling of interacting binary stars of different types classical, asynchronous, intermedi ate polars with 25 timescales corresponding to differ ent physical mechanisms and their combinations (part "Polar"); negative and positive superhumpers in nova- like and dwarf novae stars ("Superhumper"); symbiotic ("Symbiosis"); eclipsing variables with and without ev idence for a current mass transfer ("Eclipser") with a special emphasis on systems with a direct impact of the stream into the gainor star's atmosphere, which we propose to call "Impactors", or V361 Lyr-type stars. Other parts of the ILA project are "Stellar Bell" (pul sating variables of different types and periods - M, SR, RV Tau, RR Lyr, Delta Sct) and "New Variable".

Observations and analysis of the contact binary H 235 in the open cluster NGC 752

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milone, E. F.; Stagg, C. R.; Sugars, B. A.; McVean, J. R.; Schiller, S. J.; Kallrath, J.; Bradstreet, D. H.

1995-01-01

The short-period variable star Heinemann 235 in the open cluster NGC 752 has been identified as a contact binary with a variable period of about 0 d 4118. BVRI light curves and radial velocity curves have been obtained and analyzed with enhanced versions of the Wilson-Devinney light curve program. We find that the system is best modeled as an A-type W UMa system, with a contact parameter of 0.21 +/- 0.11. The masses of the components are found to be 1.18 +/- 0.17 and 0.24 +/- 0.04 solar mass, with bolometric magnitudes of 3.60 +/- 0.10 and 5.21 +/- 0.13, for the hotter (6500 K, assumed) and cooler (6421 K) components, respectively, with Delta T=79 +/- 25 K. The distance to the binary is established at 381 +/- 17 pc. H235 becomes one of a relatively small number of open-cluster contact systems with detailed light curve analysis for which an age may be estimated. If it is coeval with the cluster, and with the detached eclipsing and double-lined spectroscopic binary H219 (DS And), H235 is approximately 1.8 Gyr old, and may provide a fiducial point for the evolution of contact systems. There is, however, evidence for dynamical evolution of the cluster and the likelihood of weak interactions over the age of the binary precludes the determination of its initial state with certainty.

Magnetic braking in Solar-type close binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maceroni, C.; Rucinski, S. M.

In tidally locked binaries the angular momentum loss by magnetic braking affects the orbital period. While this effect is too small to be detected in individual systems, its signature can be seen in shape of the orbital period distribution of suitable samples. As a consequence information on the braking mechanisms can be obtained - at least in principle - from the analysis of the distributions, the main problems being the selection of a large and homogeneous sample of binaries and the appropriate treatment of the observational biases. New large databases of variable stars are becoming available as by-products of microlensing projects, which have the advantage of joining, for the first time, sample richness and homogeneity. We report the main results of the analysis of the eclipsing binaries in OGLE-I catalog, that contains several thousands variables detected in a pencil-beam search volume towards the Baade's Window. By means of an automatic filtering algorithm we extracted a sample of 74 detached, equal-mass, main-sequence binary stars with short orbital periods (i.e., in the range 0.19 < P < 8 days) and derived from the presently observed period distribution, after correction for selection effects, the expected slope of the braking law. The results suggest an AML braking law very close to the "saturated" one, with a very weak dependence on the period. However we are still far from constraining the precise value of the slope, because of the important role played by the observational bias.

Low Cerebral Blood Volume Identifies Poor Outcome in Stent Retriever Thrombectomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Protto, Sara, E-mail: sara.protto@pshp.fi; Pienimäki, Juha-Pekka; Seppänen, Janne

BackgroundMechanical thrombectomy (MT) is an efficient treatment of acute stroke caused by large-vessel occlusion. We evaluated the factors predicting poor clinical outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale, mRS >2) although MT performed with modern stent retrievers.MethodsWe prospectively collected the clinical and imaging data of 105 consecutive anterior circulation stroke patients who underwent MT after multimodal CT imaging. Patients with occlusion of the internal carotid artery and/or middle cerebral artery up to the M2 segment were included. We recorded baseline clinical, procedural and imaging variables, technical outcome, 24-h imaging outcome and the clinical outcome. Differences between the groups were studied with appropriatemore » statistical tests and binary logistic regression analysis.ResultsLow cerebral blood volume Alberta stroke program early CT score (CBV-ASPECTS) was associated with poor clinical outcome (median 7 vs. 9, p = 0.01). Lower collateral score (CS) significantly predicted poor outcome in regression modelling with CS = 0 increasing the odds of poor outcome 4.4-fold compared to CS = 3 (95% CI 1.27–15.5, p = 0.02). Lower CBV-ASPECTS significantly predicted poor clinical outcome among those with moderate or severe stroke (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.68–1, p = 0.05) or poor collateral circulation (CS 0–1, OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.48–0.90, p = 0.009) but not among those with mild strokes or good collaterals.ConclusionsCBV-ASPECTS estimating infarct core is a significant predictor of poor clinical outcome among anterior circulation stroke patients treated with MT, especially in the setting of poor collateral circulation and/or moderate or severe stroke.« less

A Bayesian Approach to Surrogacy Assessment Using Principal Stratification in Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Li, Yun; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Elliott, Michael R.

2011-01-01

Summary A surrogate marker (S) is a variable that can be measured earlier and often easier than the true endpoint (T) in a clinical trial. Most previous research has been devoted to developing surrogacy measures to quantify how well S can replace T or examining the use of S in predicting the effect of a treatment (Z). However, the research often requires one to fit models for the distribution of T given S and Z. It is well known that such models do not have causal interpretations because the models condition on a post-randomization variable S. In this paper, we directly model the relationship among T, S and Z using a potential outcomes framework introduced by Frangakis and Rubin (2002). We propose a Bayesian estimation method to evaluate the causal probabilities associated with the cross-classification of the potential outcomes of S and T when S and T are both binary. We use a log-linear model to directly model the association between the potential outcomes of S and T through the odds ratios. The quantities derived from this approach always have causal interpretations. However, this causal model is not identifiable from the data without additional assumptions. To reduce the non-identifiability problem and increase the precision of statistical inferences, we assume monotonicity and incorporate prior belief that is plausible in the surrogate context by using prior distributions. We also explore the relationship among the surrogacy measures based on traditional models and this counterfactual model. The method is applied to the data from a glaucoma treatment study. PMID:19673864

Detecting Intervention Effects in a Cluster-Randomized Design Using Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling for Binary Responses

PubMed Central

Cho, Sun-Joo; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Bottge, Brian A.

2015-01-01

Multilevel modeling (MLM) is frequently used to detect group differences, such as an intervention effect in a pre-test–post-test cluster-randomized design. Group differences on the post-test scores are detected by controlling for pre-test scores as a proxy variable for unobserved factors that predict future attributes. The pre-test and post-test scores that are most often used in MLM are summed item responses (or total scores). In prior research, there have been concerns regarding measurement error in the use of total scores in using MLM. To correct for measurement error in the covariate and outcome, a theoretical justification for the use of multilevel structural equation modeling (MSEM) has been established. However, MSEM for binary responses has not been widely applied to detect intervention effects (group differences) in intervention studies. In this article, the use of MSEM for intervention studies is demonstrated and the performance of MSEM is evaluated via a simulation study. Furthermore, the consequences of using MLM instead of MSEM are shown in detecting group differences. Results of the simulation study showed that MSEM performed adequately as the number of clusters, cluster size, and intraclass correlation increased and outperformed MLM for the detection of group differences. PMID:29881032

Detecting Intervention Effects in a Cluster-Randomized Design Using Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling for Binary Responses.

PubMed

Cho, Sun-Joo; Preacher, Kristopher J; Bottge, Brian A

2015-11-01

Multilevel modeling (MLM) is frequently used to detect group differences, such as an intervention effect in a pre-test-post-test cluster-randomized design. Group differences on the post-test scores are detected by controlling for pre-test scores as a proxy variable for unobserved factors that predict future attributes. The pre-test and post-test scores that are most often used in MLM are summed item responses (or total scores). In prior research, there have been concerns regarding measurement error in the use of total scores in using MLM. To correct for measurement error in the covariate and outcome, a theoretical justification for the use of multilevel structural equation modeling (MSEM) has been established. However, MSEM for binary responses has not been widely applied to detect intervention effects (group differences) in intervention studies. In this article, the use of MSEM for intervention studies is demonstrated and the performance of MSEM is evaluated via a simulation study. Furthermore, the consequences of using MLM instead of MSEM are shown in detecting group differences. Results of the simulation study showed that MSEM performed adequately as the number of clusters, cluster size, and intraclass correlation increased and outperformed MLM for the detection of group differences.

The Solar-Type Hard-Binary Frequency and Distributions of Orbital Parameters in the Open Cluster M37

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Meibom, Soren; Barnes, Sydney A.; Mathieu, Robert D.

2014-02-01

Binary stars, and particularly the short-period ``hard'' binaries, govern the dynamical evolution of star clusters and determine the formation rates and mechanisms for exotic stars like blue stragglers and X-ray sources. Understanding the near-primordial hard-binary population of star clusters is of primary importance for dynamical models of star clusters, which have the potential to greatly advance our understanding of star cluster evolution. Yet the binary frequencies and distributions of binary orbital parameters (period, eccentricity, etc.) for young coeval stellar populations are poorly known, due to a lack of necessary observations. The young (~540 Myr) open cluster M37 hosts a rich binary population that can be used to empirically define these initial conditions. Importantly, this cluster has been the target of a comprehensive WIYN/Hydra radial-velocity (RV) survey, from which we have already identified a nearly complete sample of 329 solar-type (1.5 <=M [M_⊙] <=1.0) members in M37. Of these stars, 82 show significant RV variability, indicative of a binary companion. We propose to build upon these data with a multi-epoch RV survey using WIYN/Hydra to derive kinematic orbital solutions for these 82 binaries in M37. This project was granted time in 2013B and scheduled for later this year. We anticipate that about half of the detected binaries in M37 will acquire enough RV measurements (>=10) in 2013B to begin searching for orbital solutions. With this proposal and perhaps one additional semester we should achieve >=10 RV measurements for the remaining binaries.

The Plutino Population: An Abundance of Contact Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirouin, Audrey; Sheppard, Scott S.

2018-06-01

We observed 12 Plutinos over two separated years with the 4.3 m Lowell’s Discovery Channel Telescope. Here, we present the first light-curve data for those objects. Three of them (2014 JL80, 2014 JO80, and 2014 JQ80) display a large light-curve amplitude explainable by a single elongated object, but they are most likely caused by a contact binary system due to their light-curve morphology. These potential contact binaries have rotational periods from 6.3 to 34.9 hr and peak-to-peak light-curve variability between 0.6 and 0.8 mag. We present partial light curves, allowing us to constrain the light-curve amplitude and the rotational period of another nine Plutinos. By merging our data with the literature, we estimate that up to ∼40% of the Plutinos could be contact binaries. Interestingly, we found that all of the suspected contact binaries in the 3:2 resonance are small with absolute magnitude H > 6 mag. Based on our sample and the literature, up to ∼50% of the small Plutinos are potential contact binaries.

Low-mass X-ray binaries from black hole retaining globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giesler, Matthew; Clausen, Drew; Ott, Christian D.

2018-06-01

Recent studies suggest that globular clusters (GCs) may retain a substantial population of stellar-mass black holes (BHs), in contrast to the long-held belief of a few to zero BHs. We model the population of BH low-mass X-ray binaries (BH-LMXBs), an ideal observable proxy for elusive single BHs, produced from a representative group of Milky Way GCs with variable BH populations. We simulate the formation of BH binaries in GCs through exchange interactions between binary and single stars in the company of tens to hundreds of BHs. Additionally, we consider the impact of the BH population on the rate of compact binaries undergoing gravitational wave driven mergers. The characteristics of the BH-LMXB population and binary properties are sensitive to the GCs structural parameters as well as its unobservable BH population. We find that GCs retaining ˜1000 BHs produce a galactic population of ˜150 ejected BH-LMXBs, whereas GCs retaining only ˜20 BHs produce zero ejected BH-LMXBs. Moreover, we explore the possibility that some of the presently known BH-LMXBs might have originated in GCs and identify five candidate systems.

Rapid X-ray variability properties during the unusual very hard state in neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijnands, R.; Parikh, A. S.; Altamirano, D.; Homan, J.; Degenaar, N.

2017-11-01

Here, we study the rapid X-ray variability (using XMM-Newton observations) of three neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries (1RXS J180408.9-342058, EXO 1745-248 and IGR J18245-2452) during their recently proposed very hard spectral state. All our systems exhibit a strong to very strong noise component in their power density spectra (rms amplitudes ranging from 34 per cent to 102 per cent) with very low characteristic frequencies (as low as 0.01 Hz). These properties are more extreme than what is commonly observed in the canonical hard state of neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries observed at X-ray luminosities similar to those we observe from our sources. This suggests that indeed the very hard state is a spectral-timing state distinct from the hard state, although we argue that the variability behaviour of IGR J18245-2452 is very extreme and possibly this source was in a very unusual state. We also compare our results with the rapid X-ray variability of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsars IGR J00291+5934 and Swift J0911.9-6452 (also using XMM-Newton data) for which previously similar variability phenomena were observed. Although their energy spectra (as observed using the Swift X-ray telescope) were not necessarily as hard (i.e. for Swift J0911.9-6452) as for our other three sources, we conclude that likely both sources were also in very similar state during their XMM-Newton observations. This suggests that different sources that are found in this new state might exhibit different spectral hardness and one has to study both the spectral and the rapid variability to identify this unusual state.

Controlled pattern imputation for sensitivity analysis of longitudinal binary and ordinal outcomes with nonignorable dropout.

PubMed

Tang, Yongqiang

2018-04-30

The controlled imputation method refers to a class of pattern mixture models that have been commonly used as sensitivity analyses of longitudinal clinical trials with nonignorable dropout in recent years. These pattern mixture models assume that participants in the experimental arm after dropout have similar response profiles to the control participants or have worse outcomes than otherwise similar participants who remain on the experimental treatment. In spite of its popularity, the controlled imputation has not been formally developed for longitudinal binary and ordinal outcomes partially due to the lack of a natural multivariate distribution for such endpoints. In this paper, we propose 2 approaches for implementing the controlled imputation for binary and ordinal data based respectively on the sequential logistic regression and the multivariate probit model. Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are developed for missing data imputation by using the monotone data augmentation technique for the sequential logistic regression and a parameter-expanded monotone data augmentation scheme for the multivariate probit model. We assess the performance of the proposed procedures by simulation and the analysis of a schizophrenia clinical trial and compare them with the fully conditional specification, last observation carried forward, and baseline observation carried forward imputation methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The luminous blue variable HR Carinae has a partner. Discovery of a companion with the VLTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boffin, Henri M. J.; Rivinius, Thomas; Mérand, Antoine; Mehner, Andrea; LeBouquin, Jean-Baptiste; Pourbaix, Dimitri; de Wit, Willem-Jan; Martayan, Christophe; Guieu, Sylvain

2016-09-01

Luminous blue variables (LBVs) are massive stars caught in a post-main sequence phase, during which they lose a significant amount of mass. Since, on one hand, it is thought that the majority of massive stars are close binaries that will interact during their lifetime, and on the other, the most dramatic example of an LBV, η Car, is a binary, it would be useful to find other binary LBVs. We present here interferometric observations of the LBV HR Car done with the AMBER and PIONIER instruments attached to ESO's Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). Our observations, spanning two years, clearly reveal that HR Car is a binary star. It is not yet possible to fully constrain the orbit, and the orbital period may lie between a few years and several hundred years. We derive a radius for the primary in the system and possibly also resolve the companion. The luminosity ratio in the H-band between the two components is changing with time, going from about 6 to 9. We also tentatively detect the presence of some background flux which remained at the 2% level until January 2016, but then increased to 6% in April 2016. Our AMBER results show that the emission line-forming region of Brγ is more extended than the continuum-emitting region as seen by PIONIER and may indicate some wind-wind interaction. Most importantly, we constrain the total masses of both components, with the most likely range being 33.6 M⊙ and 45 M⊙. Our results show that the LBV HR Car is possibly an η Car analog binary system with smaller masses, with variable components, and further monitoring of this object is definitively called for. Based on data obtained with ESO programmes 092.C-0243, 092.D-0289, 092.D-0296, 094.D-0069, and 596.D-0335.

Outcome regimes of binary raindrop collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Testik, Firat Y.

2009-11-01

This study delineates the physical conditions that are responsible for the occurrence of main outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and breakup) for binary drop collisions with a precipitation microphysics perspective. Physical considerations based on the collision kinetic energy and the surface energies of the colliding drops lead to the development of a theoretical regime diagram for the drop/raindrop collision outcomes in the We- p plane ( We — Weber number, p — raindrop diameter ratio). This theoretical regime diagram is supported by laboratory experimental observations of drop collisions using high-speed imaging. Results of this fundamental study bring in new insights into the quantitative understanding of drop dynamics, applications of which extend beyond precipitation microphysics. In particular, results of this drop collision study are expected to give impetus to the physics-based dynamic modeling of the drop size distributions that is essential for various typical modern engineering applications, including numerical modeling of evolution of raindrop size distribution in rain shaft.

Mediation Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

PubMed

VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-01-01

This article provides an overview of recent developments in mediation analysis, that is, analyses used to assess the relative magnitude of different pathways and mechanisms by which an exposure may affect an outcome. Traditional approaches to mediation in the biomedical and social sciences are described. Attention is given to the confounding assumptions required for a causal interpretation of direct and indirect effect estimates. Methods from the causal inference literature to conduct mediation in the presence of exposure-mediator interactions, binary outcomes, binary mediators, and case-control study designs are presented. Sensitivity analysis techniques for unmeasured confounding and measurement error are introduced. Discussion is given to extensions to time-to-event outcomes and multiple mediators. Further flexible modeling strategies arising from the precise counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects are also described. The focus throughout is on methodology that is easily implementable in practice across a broad range of potential applications.

ISM DUST GRAINS AND N-BAND SPECTRAL VARIABILITY IN THE SPATIALLY RESOLVED SUBARCSECOND BINARY UY Aur

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skemer, Andrew J.; Close, Laird M.; Hinz, Philip M.

2010-03-10

The 10 {mu}m silicate feature is an essential diagnostic of dust-grain growth and planet formation in young circumstellar disks. The Spitzer Space Telescope has revolutionized the study of this feature, but due to its small (85 cm) aperture, it cannot spatially resolve small/medium-separation binaries ({approx}<3''; {approx}< 420 AU) at the distances of the nearest star-forming regions ({approx}140 pc). Large, 6-10 m ground-based telescopes with mid-infrared instruments can resolve these systems. In this paper, we spatially resolve the 0.''88 binary, UY Aur, with MMTAO/BLINC-MIRAC4 mid-infrared spectroscopy. We then compare our spectra to Spitzer/IRS (unresolved) spectroscopy, and resolved images from IRTF/MIRAC2, Keck/OSCIR,more » and Gemini/Michelle, which were taken over the past decade. We find that UY Aur A has extremely pristine, interstellar medium (ISM)-like grains and that UY Aur B has an unusually shaped silicate feature, which is probably the result of blended emission and absorption from foreground extinction in its disk. We also find evidence for variability in both UY Aur A and UY Aur B by comparing synthetic photometry from our spectra with resolved imaging from previous epochs. The photometric variability of UY Aur A could be an indication that the silicate emission itself is variable, as was recently found in EX Lupi. Otherwise, the thermal continuum is variable, and either the ISM-like dust has never evolved, or it is being replenished, perhaps by UY Aur's circumbinary disk.« less

A chance-constrained stochastic approach to intermodal container routing problems.

PubMed

Zhao, Yi; Liu, Ronghui; Zhang, Xi; Whiteing, Anthony

2018-01-01

We consider a container routing problem with stochastic time variables in a sea-rail intermodal transportation system. The problem is formulated as a binary integer chance-constrained programming model including stochastic travel times and stochastic transfer time, with the objective of minimising the expected total cost. Two chance constraints are proposed to ensure that the container service satisfies ship fulfilment and cargo on-time delivery with pre-specified probabilities. A hybrid heuristic algorithm is employed to solve the binary integer chance-constrained programming model. Two case studies are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model and to analyse the impact of stochastic variables and chance-constraints on the optimal solution and total cost.

A chance-constrained stochastic approach to intermodal container routing problems

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yi; Zhang, Xi; Whiteing, Anthony

2018-01-01

We consider a container routing problem with stochastic time variables in a sea-rail intermodal transportation system. The problem is formulated as a binary integer chance-constrained programming model including stochastic travel times and stochastic transfer time, with the objective of minimising the expected total cost. Two chance constraints are proposed to ensure that the container service satisfies ship fulfilment and cargo on-time delivery with pre-specified probabilities. A hybrid heuristic algorithm is employed to solve the binary integer chance-constrained programming model. Two case studies are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model and to analyse the impact of stochastic variables and chance-constraints on the optimal solution and total cost. PMID:29438389

High-energy variability of the Pulsar binary PSR J1311-3430

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Hongjun; Fermi-LAT Collaboration

2018-01-01

We present analysis results of high-energy observations of the extreme mass-ratio black-widow millisecond pulsar binary PSR J1311-3430. Our studies in the UV, X-ray, and gamma-ray bands confirm the orbital modulation in the gamma-ray band as suggested previously. In addition, we find that the modulation is stronger in the high-energy band. In the lower-energy UV and X-ray bands, we detect flares which were observed previously and attributed to magnetic activities. We find that the optical flares are associated with the X-ray flares, suggesting common origin. We explore possible connections of the variabilities with the intrabinary shock (IBS) and magnetic activity on the low mass companion.

Massive eclipsing binary candidates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrison, R. F.; Schild, R. E.; Hiltner, W. A.

1983-01-01

New UBV data are provided for 63 southern OB stars which are either identified in the survey by Garrison, Hiltner, and Schild as having double lines or are known from Wood et al. to be eclipsing binaries. Twenty of the stars are known eclipsing variables. Four stars, not previously known as eclipsing, have both spectroscopic evidence of duplicity and significant photometric variations. Several additional stars have a marginally significant spread in V magnitude.

Binary Cepheids: Separations and Mass Ratios in 5 Solar Mass Binaries

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

astrometry, photometry , direct imaging), each with selection biases. However, Cepheids—cool, evolved stars of∼5M—are a special case because ultraviolet...detected velocity variability. In an imaging survey with the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3, we resolved three of the companions (those...1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and

The planetary nebula IC 4776 and its post-common-envelope binary central star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sowicka, Paulina; Jones, David; Corradi, Romano L. M.; Wesson, Roger; García-Rojas, Jorge; Santander-García, Miguel; Boffin, Henri M. J.; Rodríguez-Gil, Pablo

2017-11-01

We present a detailed analysis of IC 4776, a planetary nebula displaying a morphology believed to be typical of central star binarity. The nebula is shown to comprise a compact hourglass-shaped central region and a pair of precessing jet-like structures. Time-resolved spectroscopy of its central star reveals a periodic radial velocity variability consistent with a binary system. Whilst the data are insufficient to accurately determine the parameters of the binary, the most likely solutions indicate that the secondary is probably a low-mass main-sequence star. An empirical analysis of the chemical abundances in IC 4776 indicates that the common-envelope phase may have cut short the asymptotic giant branch evolution of the progenitor. Abundances calculated from recombination lines are found to be discrepant by a factor of approximately 2 relative to those calculated using collisionally excited lines, suggesting a possible correlation between low-abundance discrepancy factors and intermediate-period post-common-envelope central stars and/or Wolf-Rayet central stars. The detection of a radial velocity variability associated with the binarity of the central star of IC 4776 may be indicative of a significant population of (intermediate-period) post-common-envelope binary central stars that would be undetected by classic photometric monitoring techniques.

Binary black holes' effects on electromagnetic fields.

PubMed

Palenzuela, Carlos; Anderson, Matthew; Lehner, Luis; Liebling, Steven L; Neilsen, David

2009-08-21

In addition to producing gravitational waves, the dynamics of a binary black hole system could induce emission of electromagnetic radiation by affecting the behavior of plasmas and electromagnetic fields in their vicinity. We here study how the electromagnetic fields are affected by a pair of orbiting black holes through the merger. In particular, we show how the binary's dynamics induce a variability in possible electromagnetically induced emissions as well as a possible enhancement of electromagnetic fields during the late-merge and merger epochs. These time dependent features will likely leave their imprint in processes generating detectable emissions and can be exploited in the detection of electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational waves.

The influence of age at onset and duration of illness on long-term outcome in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder: a report from the International College of Obsessive Compulsive Spectrum Disorders (ICOCS).

PubMed

Dell'Osso, Bernardo; Benatti, Beatrice; Buoli, Massimiliano; Altamura, A Carlo; Marazziti, Donatella; Hollander, Eric; Fineberg, Naomi; Stein, Dan J; Pallanti, Stefano; Nicolini, Humberto; Van Ameringen, Michael; Lochner, Christine; Hranov, Georgi; Karamustafalioglu, Oguz; Hranov, Luchezar; Menchon, Jose M; Zohar, Joseph

2013-08-01

Several studies reported a negative effect of early onset and long duration of illness on long-term outcome in psychiatric disorders, including Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD). OCD is a prevalent, comorbid and disabling condition, associated with reduced quality of life and overall well-being for affected patients and related caregivers. The present multicenter naturalistic study sought to assess the influence of early onset and duration of illness on long-term outcome in a sample of 376 OCD out-patients worldwide, as part of the "International College of Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders" (ICOCS) network. Binary logistic regressions were performed with age at the onset and duration of illness, as continuous independent variables, on a series of different outcome dependent variables, including lifetime number of hospitalizations and suicide attempts, poly-therapy and psychiatric comorbidity. Correlations in terms of disability (SDS) were analyzed as well. Results showed that a longer duration of illness (but not earlier age of onset) was associated with hospitalization (odds ratio=1.03, p=0.01), earlier age at onset with CBT (odds ratio=0.94, p<0.001) and both a later age at onset (odds ratio=1.05, p=0.02) and a shorter duration of illness (odds ratio=0.93, p=0.02) with panic disorder comorbidity. In addition, earlier age at onset inversely correlated with higher social disability (r=-0.12, p=0.048) and longer duration of illness directly correlated with higher disability in work, social and family life (r=0.14, p=0.017; r=0.13, p=0.035; r=0.14, p=0.02). The findings from the present large, multicenter study indicate early onset and long duration of illness as overall negative predictors of long-term outcome in OCD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

A possible close supermassive black-hole binary in a quasar with optical periodicity.

PubMed

Graham, Matthew J; Djorgovski, S G; Stern, Daniel; Glikman, Eilat; Drake, Andrew J; Mahabal, Ashish A; Donalek, Ciro; Larson, Steve; Christensen, Eric

2015-02-05

Quasars have long been known to be variable sources at all wavelengths. Their optical variability is stochastic and can be due to a variety of physical mechanisms; it is also well-described statistically in terms of a damped random walk model. The recent availability of large collections of astronomical time series of flux measurements (light curves) offers new data sets for a systematic exploration of quasar variability. Here we report the detection of a strong, smooth periodic signal in the optical variability of the quasar PG 1302-102 with a mean observed period of 1,884 ± 88 days. It was identified in a search for periodic variability in a data set of light curves for 247,000 known, spectroscopically confirmed quasars with a temporal baseline of about 9 years. Although the interpretation of this phenomenon is still uncertain, the most plausible mechanisms involve a binary system of two supermassive black holes with a subparsec separation. Such systems are an expected consequence of galaxy mergers and can provide important constraints on models of galaxy formation and evolution.

Cluster randomised crossover trials with binary data and unbalanced cluster sizes: application to studies of near-universal interventions in intensive care.

PubMed

Forbes, Andrew B; Akram, Muhammad; Pilcher, David; Cooper, Jamie; Bellomo, Rinaldo

2015-02-01

Cluster randomised crossover trials have been utilised in recent years in the health and social sciences. Methods for analysis have been proposed; however, for binary outcomes, these have received little assessment of their appropriateness. In addition, methods for determination of sample size are currently limited to balanced cluster sizes both between clusters and between periods within clusters. This article aims to extend this work to unbalanced situations and to evaluate the properties of a variety of methods for analysis of binary data, with a particular focus on the setting of potential trials of near-universal interventions in intensive care to reduce in-hospital mortality. We derive a formula for sample size estimation for unbalanced cluster sizes, and apply it to the intensive care setting to demonstrate the utility of the cluster crossover design. We conduct a numerical simulation of the design in the intensive care setting and for more general configurations, and we assess the performance of three cluster summary estimators and an individual-data estimator based on binomial-identity-link regression. For settings similar to the intensive care scenario involving large cluster sizes and small intra-cluster correlations, the sample size formulae developed and analysis methods investigated are found to be appropriate, with the unweighted cluster summary method performing well relative to the more optimal but more complex inverse-variance weighted method. More generally, we find that the unweighted and cluster-size-weighted summary methods perform well, with the relative efficiency of each largely determined systematically from the study design parameters. Performance of individual-data regression is adequate with small cluster sizes but becomes inefficient for large, unbalanced cluster sizes. When outcome prevalences are 6% or less and the within-cluster-within-period correlation is 0.05 or larger, all methods display sub-nominal confidence interval coverage, with the less prevalent the outcome the worse the coverage. As with all simulation studies, conclusions are limited to the configurations studied. We confined attention to detecting intervention effects on an absolute risk scale using marginal models and did not explore properties of binary random effects models. Cluster crossover designs with binary outcomes can be analysed using simple cluster summary methods, and sample size in unbalanced cluster size settings can be determined using relatively straightforward formulae. However, caution needs to be applied in situations with low prevalence outcomes and moderate to high intra-cluster correlations. © The Author(s) 2014.

Is there a relationship between the presence of the binary toxin genes in Clostridium difficile strains and the severity of C. difficile infection (CDI)?

PubMed

Berry, C E; Davies, K A; Owens, D W; Wilcox, M H

2017-12-01

Some strains of Clostridium difficile produce a binary toxin, in addition to the main C. difficile virulence factors (toxins A and B). There have been conflicting reports regarding the role of binary toxin and its relationship to the severity of C. difficile infection (CDI). Samples, isolates and clinical data were collected as part of a prospective multicentre diagnostic study. Clostridium difficile isolates (n = 1259) were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay to detect binary toxin genes cdtA and cdtB. The PCR binary toxin gene results were compared with clinical severity and outcome data, including 30-day all-cause mortality. The 1259 isolates corresponded to 1083 different patients (October 2010 to September 2011). The prevalence of binary toxin positive strains was significantly higher in faecal samples with detectable toxin A/B than in those without toxin but that were positive by cytotoxigenic culture (26.3% vs. 10.3%, p < 0.001). The presence of binary toxin correlated moderately with markers of CDI severity (white cell count, serum albumin concentration and serum creatinine concentration). However, the risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.68 for binary toxin positive patients and patients were significantly less likely to survive if they had CDI caused by a binary toxin gene positive strain, even after adjusting for age (p < 0.001). The presence of binary toxin genes does not predict the clinical severity of CDI, but it is significantly associated with the risk of all-cause mortality.

A Note on the Usefulness of the Behavioural Rasch Selection Model for Causal Inference in the Social Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbitt, Matthew P.

2016-11-01

Social scientists are often interested in examining causal relationships where the outcome of interest is represented by an intangible concept, such as an individual's well-being or ability. Estimating causal relationships in this scenario is particularly challenging because the social scientist must rely on measurement models to measure individual's properties or attributes and then address issues related to survey data, such as omitted variables. In this paper, the usefulness of the recently proposed behavioural Rasch selection model is explored using a series of Monte Carlo experiments. The behavioural Rasch selection model is particularly useful for these types of applications because it is capable of estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment effect on an outcome that is represented by an intangible concept using cross-sectional data. Other methodology typically relies of summary measures from measurement models that require additional assumptions, some of which make these approaches less efficient. Recommendations for application of the behavioural Rasch selection model are made based on results from the Monte Carlo experiments.

Multiple-Shrinkage Multinomial Probit Models with Applications to Simulating Geographies in Public Use Data.

PubMed

Burgette, Lane F; Reiter, Jerome P

2013-06-01

Multinomial outcomes with many levels can be challenging to model. Information typically accrues slowly with increasing sample size, yet the parameter space expands rapidly with additional covariates. Shrinking all regression parameters towards zero, as often done in models of continuous or binary response variables, is unsatisfactory, since setting parameters equal to zero in multinomial models does not necessarily imply "no effect." We propose an approach to modeling multinomial outcomes with many levels based on a Bayesian multinomial probit (MNP) model and a multiple shrinkage prior distribution for the regression parameters. The prior distribution encourages the MNP regression parameters to shrink toward a number of learned locations, thereby substantially reducing the dimension of the parameter space. Using simulated data, we compare the predictive performance of this model against two other recently-proposed methods for big multinomial models. The results suggest that the fully Bayesian, multiple shrinkage approach can outperform these other methods. We apply the multiple shrinkage MNP to simulating replacement values for areal identifiers, e.g., census tract indicators, in order to protect data confidentiality in public use datasets.

Hydrodynamics on Supercomputers: Interacting Binary Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blondin, J. M.

1997-05-01

The interaction of close binary stars accounts for a wide variety of peculiar objects scattered throughout our Galaxy. The unique features of Algols, Symbiotics, X-ray binaries, cataclysmic variables and many others are linked to the dynamics of the circumstellar gas which can take forms from tidal streams and accretion disks to colliding stellar winds. As in many other areas of astrophysics, large scale computing has provided a powerful new tool in the study of interacting binaries. In the research to be described, hydrodynamic simulations are used to create a "laboratory", within which one can "experiment": change the system and observe (and predict) the effects of those changes. This type of numerical experimentation, when buttressed by analytic studies, provides a means of interpreting observations, identifying and understanding the relevant physics, and visualizing the physical system. The results of such experiments will be shown, including the structure of tidal streams in Roche lobe overflow systems, mass accretion in X-ray binaries, and the formation of accretion disks.

A clinical measure of DNA methylation predicts outcome in de novo acute myeloid leukemia

PubMed Central

Luskin, Marlise R.; Gimotty, Phyllis A.; Smith, Catherine; Loren, Alison W.; Figueroa, Maria E.; Harrison, Jenna; Sun, Zhuoxin; Tallman, Martin S.; Paietta, Elisabeth M.; Litzow, Mark R.; Melnick, Ari M.; Levine, Ross L.; Fernandez, Hugo F.; Luger, Selina M.; Master, Stephen R.; Wertheim, Gerald B.W.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND. Variable response to chemotherapy in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) represents a major treatment challenge. Clinical and genetic features incompletely predict outcome. The value of clinical epigenetic assays for risk classification has not been extensively explored. We assess the prognostic implications of a clinical assay for multilocus DNA methylation on adult patients with de novo AML. METHODS. We performed multilocus DNA methylation assessment using xMELP on samples and calculated a methylation statistic (M-score) for 166 patients from UPENN with de novo AML who received induction chemotherapy. The association of M-score with complete remission (CR) and overall survival (OS) was evaluated. The optimal M-score cut-point for identifying groups with differing survival was used to define a binary M-score classifier. This classifier was validated in an independent cohort of 383 patients from the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Trial 1900 (E1900; NCT00049517). RESULTS. A higher mean M-score was associated with death and failure to achieve CR. Multivariable analysis confirmed that a higher M-score was associated with death (P = 0.011) and failure to achieve CR (P = 0.034). Median survival was 26.6 months versus 10.6 months for low and high M-score groups. The ability of the M-score to perform as a classifier was confirmed in patients ≤ 60 years with intermediate cytogenetics and patients who achieved CR, as well as in the E1900 validation cohort. CONCLUSION. The M-score represents a valid binary prognostic classifier for patients with de novo AML. The xMELP assay and associated M-score can be used for prognosis and should be further investigated for clinical decision making in AML patients. PMID:27446991

Graduation Odds and Probabilities among Baccalaureate Colleges and Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Graduation outcomes are analyzed at public and private baccalaureate colleges and universities in the United States. The purpose is to determine the effect of institutional characteristics on a binary indicator of college graduation. The effect of the percentage of Pell grant recipients on graduation outcomes is of primary interest, controlling…

Distortion of Probability and Outcome Information in Risky Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeKay, Michael L.; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Fischbeck, Paul S.

2009-01-01

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making, but very few studies have assessed the distortion of probability and outcome information in risky decisions. In two studies involving six binary decisions (e.g., banning blood donations from people who have visited England, because of "mad cow disease"),…

Binary toxin and its clinical importance in Clostridium difficile infection, Belgium.

PubMed

Pilate, T; Verhaegen, J; Van Ranst, M; Saegeman, V

2016-11-01

Binary toxin-producing Clostridium difficile strains such as ribotypes 027 and 078 have been associated with increased Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) severity. Our objective was to investigate the association between presence of the binary toxin gene and CDI severity and recurrence. We performed a laboratory-based retrospective study including patients between January 2013 and March 2015 whose fecal samples were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the presence of the genes for toxin B and binary toxin and a deletion in the tcdC gene, specific for ribotype 027. Clinical and epidemiological characteristics were compared between 33 binary toxin-positive CDI patients and 33 binary toxin-negative CDI patients. Subsequently, the characteristics of 66 CDI patients were compared to those of 66 diarrhea patients who were carriers of non-toxigenic C. difficile strains. Fifty-nine of 1034 (5.7 %) fecal samples analyzed by PCR were binary toxin-positive, belonging to 33 different patients. No samples were positive for ribotype 027. Binary toxin-positive CDI patients did not differ from binary toxin-negative CDI patients in terms of disease recurrence, morbidity, or mortality, except for a higher peripheral leukocytosis in the binary toxin-positive group (16.30 × 10 9 /L vs. 11.65 × 10 9 /L; p = 0.02). The second part of our study showed that CDI patients had more severe disease, but not a higher 30-day mortality rate than diarrhea patients with a non-toxicogenic C. difficile strain. In our setting with a low prevalence of ribotype 027, the presence of the binary toxin gene is not associated with poor outcome.

Explaining Ethnic Disparities in Preterm Birth in Argentina and Ecuador

PubMed Central

Wehby, George L.; Pawluk, Mariela; Nyarko, Kwame A.; López-Camelo, Jorge S.

2017-01-01

Background Little is understood about racial/ethnic disparities in infant health in South America. We quantified the extent to which the disparity in preterm birth rate (PTB; < 37 gestational weeks) between infants of Native only ancestry and those of European only ancestry in Argentina and Ecuador are explained by household socioeconomic, demographic, healthcare use, and geographic location indicators. Methods The samples included 5199 infants born between 2000 and 2011 from Argentina and 1579 infants born between 2001 and 2011 from Ecuador. An Oaxaca-Blinder type decomposition model adapted to binary outcomes was estimated to explain the disparity in PTB risk across groups of variables and specific variables. Results Maternal use of prenatal care services significantly explained the PTB disparity, by nearly 57% and 30% in Argentina and Ecuador, respectively. Household socioeconomic status explained an additional 26% of the PTB disparity in Argentina. Conclusions Differences in maternal use of prenatal care may partly explain ethnic disparities in PTB in Argentina and Ecuador. Improving access to prenatal care may reduce ethnic disparities in PTB risk in these countries. PMID:27875924

Microfinance Participation and Domestic Violence in Bangladesh: Results From a Nationally Representative Survey.

PubMed

Murshid, Nadine Shaanta; Akincigil, Ayse; Zippay, Allison

2016-05-01

This article examines domestic violence among women who participate in microfinance in Bangladesh. Secondary analysis of survey data from nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey was used to investigate the association between microfinance participation and domestic violence of 4,163 ever-married women between the ages of 18 and 49 years. Outcome measure is experience of domestic violence as measured by a modified Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS) and predictor variables include microfinance, binary indicator of relatively better economic status, autonomy, decision-making power, and demographic variables. The likelihood of experiencing domestic violence was not found to vary with microfinance participation. However, the interaction effect of microfinance and better economic status was found to be significantly associated with domestic violence (9% increased probability). Experience of domestic violence was negatively associated with older age, higher education of the husband, and autonomy. In Bangladesh, microfinance participation may be associated with a higher probability of experiencing domestic violence for women with relatively better economic status, but not for the poorest of the poor. © The Author(s) 2015.

DID THE ANCIENT EGYPTIANS RECORD THE PERIOD OF THE ECLIPSING BINARY ALGOL-THE RAGING ONE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jetsu, L.; Porceddu, S.; Lyytinen, J.

The eclipses in binary stars give precise information of orbital period changes. Goodricke discovered the 2.867 day period in the eclipses of Algol in the year 1783. The irregular orbital period changes of this longest known eclipsing binary continue to puzzle astronomers. The mass transfer between the two members of this binary should cause a long-term increase of the orbital period, but observations over two centuries have not confirmed this effect. Here, we present evidence indicating that the period of Algol was 2.850 days three millennia ago. For religious reasons, the ancient Egyptians have recorded this period into the Cairomore » Calendar (CC), which describes the repetitive changes of the Raging one. CC may be the oldest preserved historical document of the discovery of a variable star.« less

Analysis of GSC 2475-1587 and GSC 841-277: Two Eclipsing Binary Stars Found During Asteroid Lightcurve Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, R. D.; Warner, B. D.

2006-05-01

When observing asteroids we select from two to five comparison stars for differential photometry, taking the average value of the comparisons for the single value to be subtracted from the value for the asteroid. As a check, the raw data of each comparison star are plotted as is the difference between any single comparison and the average of the remaining stars in the set. On more than one occasion, we have found that at least one of the comparisons was variable. In two instances, we took time away from our asteroid lightcurve work to determine the period of the two binaries and attempted to model the system using David Bradstreet's Binary Maker 3. Unfortunately, neither binary showed a total eclipse. Therefore, our results are not conclusive and present only one of many possibilities.

Correction factors for on-line microprobe analysis of multielement alloy systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unnam, J.; Tenney, D. R.; Brewer, W. D.

1977-01-01

An on-line correction technique was developed for the conversion of electron probe X-ray intensities into concentrations of emitting elements. This technique consisted of off-line calculation and representation of binary interaction data which were read into an on-line minicomputer to calculate variable correction coefficients. These coefficients were used to correct the X-ray data without significantly increasing computer core requirements. The binary interaction data were obtained by running Colby's MAGIC 4 program in the reverse mode. The data for each binary interaction were represented by polynomial coefficients obtained by least-squares fitting a third-order polynomial. Polynomial coefficients were generated for most of the common binary interactions at different accelerating potentials and are included. Results are presented for the analyses of several alloy standards to demonstrate the applicability of this correction procedure.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Classification of ROTSE Variable Stars using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wozniak, P. R.; Akerlof, C.; Amrose, S.; Brumby, S.; Casperson, D.; Gisler, G.; Kehoe, R.; Lee, B.; Marshall, S.; McGowan, K. E.; McKay, T.; Perkins, S.; Priedhorsky, W.; Rykoff, E.; Smith, D. A.; Theiler, J.; Vestrand, W. T.; Wren, J.; ROTSE Collaboration

2001-12-01

We evaluate several Machine Learning algorithms as potential tools for automated classification of variable stars. Using the ROTSE sample of ~1800 variables from a pilot study of 5% of the whole sky, we compare the effectiveness of a supervised technique (Support Vector Machines, SVM) versus unsupervised methods (K-means and Autoclass). There are 8 types of variables in the sample: RR Lyr AB, RR Lyr C, Delta Scuti, Cepheids, detached eclipsing binaries, contact binaries, Miras and LPVs. Preliminary results suggest a very high ( ~95%) efficiency of SVM in isolating a few best defined classes against the rest of the sample, and good accuracy ( ~70-75%) for all classes considered simultaneously. This includes some degeneracies, irreducible with the information at hand. Supervised methods naturally outperform unsupervised methods, in terms of final error rate, but unsupervised methods offer many advantages for large sets of unlabeled data. Therefore, both types of methods should be considered as promising tools for mining vast variability surveys. We project that there are more than 30,000 periodic variables in the ROTSE-I data base covering the entire local sky between V=10 and 15.5 mag. This sample size is already stretching the time capabilities of human analysts.

Copernicus observations of Ly-alpha and Mg II emission from HR 1099 /V711 Tauri/ and UX Ari

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weiler, E. J.

1978-01-01

Ultraviolet observations of two RS CVn binaries obtained with Copernicus are described. High-resolution (0.05 A) U1 observations indicate that both HR 1099 and UX Ari display broad Ly-alpha emission. The Ly-alpha emission strength from HR 1099 is variable and seems to be correlated with orbital phase, while the UX Ari results indicate no significant variation. Moderate resolution (0.51 A) V2 scans of both systems show variable Mg II h and k emission-line profiles which usually matched the velocity of the more active star in each binary. Additionally, displaced emission components were seen at velocities of up to + or - 250 km/s, indicative of high-velocity gas motions. The radial velocities of these emission features from HR 1099 are marginally correlated with orbital phase. Highly active and variable chromospheric phenomena are found to be the most consistent explanation of these results.

Binary logistic regression modelling: Measuring the probability of relapse cases among drug addict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Alias, Siti Nor Shadila

2014-07-01

For many years Malaysia faced the drug addiction issues. The most serious case is relapse phenomenon among treated drug addict (drug addict who have under gone the rehabilitation programme at Narcotic Addiction Rehabilitation Centre, PUSPEN). Thus, the main objective of this study is to find the most significant factor that contributes to relapse to happen. The binary logistic regression analysis was employed to model the relationship between independent variables (predictors) and dependent variable. The dependent variable is the status of the drug addict either relapse, (Yes coded as 1) or not, (No coded as 0). Meanwhile the predictors involved are age, age at first taking drug, family history, education level, family crisis, community support and self motivation. The total of the sample is 200 which the data are provided by AADK (National Antidrug Agency). The finding of the study revealed that age and self motivation are statistically significant towards the relapse cases..

"Wish You Were Here": Examining Characteristics, Outcomes, and Statistical Solutions for Missing Cases in Web-Based Psychotherapeutic Trials.

PubMed

Karin, Eyal; Dear, Blake F; Heller, Gillian Z; Crane, Monique F; Titov, Nickolai

2018-04-19

Missing cases following treatment are common in Web-based psychotherapy trials. Without the ability to directly measure and evaluate the outcomes for missing cases, the ability to measure and evaluate the effects of treatment is challenging. Although common, little is known about the characteristics of Web-based psychotherapy participants who present as missing cases, their likely clinical outcomes, or the suitability of different statistical assumptions that can characterize missing cases. Using a large sample of individuals who underwent Web-based psychotherapy for depressive symptoms (n=820), the aim of this study was to explore the characteristics of cases who present as missing cases at posttreatment (n=138), their likely treatment outcomes, and compare between statistical methods for replacing their missing data. First, common participant and treatment features were tested through binary logistic regression models, evaluating the ability to predict missing cases. Second, the same variables were screened for their ability to increase or impede the rate symptom change that was observed following treatment. Third, using recontacted cases at 3-month follow-up to proximally represent missing cases outcomes following treatment, various simulated replacement scores were compared and evaluated against observed clinical follow-up scores. Missing cases were dominantly predicted by lower treatment adherence and increased symptoms at pretreatment. Statistical methods that ignored these characteristics can overlook an important clinical phenomenon and consequently produce inaccurate replacement outcomes, with symptoms estimates that can swing from -32% to 70% from the observed outcomes of recontacted cases. In contrast, longitudinal statistical methods that adjusted their estimates for missing cases outcomes by treatment adherence rates and baseline symptoms scores resulted in minimal measurement bias (<8%). Certain variables can characterize and predict missing cases likelihood and jointly predict lesser clinical improvement. Under such circumstances, individuals with potentially worst off treatment outcomes can become concealed, and failure to adjust for this can lead to substantial clinical measurement bias. Together, this preliminary research suggests that missing cases in Web-based psychotherapeutic interventions may not occur as random events and can be systematically predicted. Critically, at the same time, missing cases may experience outcomes that are distinct and important for a complete understanding of the treatment effect. ©Eyal Karin, Blake F Dear, Gillian Z Heller, Monique F Crane, Nickolai Titov. Originally published in JMIR Mental Health (http://mental.jmir.org), 19.04.2018.

“Wish You Were Here”: Examining Characteristics, Outcomes, and Statistical Solutions for Missing Cases in Web-Based Psychotherapeutic Trials

PubMed Central

Dear, Blake F; Heller, Gillian Z; Crane, Monique F; Titov, Nickolai

2018-01-01

Background Missing cases following treatment are common in Web-based psychotherapy trials. Without the ability to directly measure and evaluate the outcomes for missing cases, the ability to measure and evaluate the effects of treatment is challenging. Although common, little is known about the characteristics of Web-based psychotherapy participants who present as missing cases, their likely clinical outcomes, or the suitability of different statistical assumptions that can characterize missing cases. Objective Using a large sample of individuals who underwent Web-based psychotherapy for depressive symptoms (n=820), the aim of this study was to explore the characteristics of cases who present as missing cases at posttreatment (n=138), their likely treatment outcomes, and compare between statistical methods for replacing their missing data. Methods First, common participant and treatment features were tested through binary logistic regression models, evaluating the ability to predict missing cases. Second, the same variables were screened for their ability to increase or impede the rate symptom change that was observed following treatment. Third, using recontacted cases at 3-month follow-up to proximally represent missing cases outcomes following treatment, various simulated replacement scores were compared and evaluated against observed clinical follow-up scores. Results Missing cases were dominantly predicted by lower treatment adherence and increased symptoms at pretreatment. Statistical methods that ignored these characteristics can overlook an important clinical phenomenon and consequently produce inaccurate replacement outcomes, with symptoms estimates that can swing from −32% to 70% from the observed outcomes of recontacted cases. In contrast, longitudinal statistical methods that adjusted their estimates for missing cases outcomes by treatment adherence rates and baseline symptoms scores resulted in minimal measurement bias (<8%). Conclusions Certain variables can characterize and predict missing cases likelihood and jointly predict lesser clinical improvement. Under such circumstances, individuals with potentially worst off treatment outcomes can become concealed, and failure to adjust for this can lead to substantial clinical measurement bias. Together, this preliminary research suggests that missing cases in Web-based psychotherapeutic interventions may not occur as random events and can be systematically predicted. Critically, at the same time, missing cases may experience outcomes that are distinct and important for a complete understanding of the treatment effect. PMID:29674311

Be discs in coplanar circular binaries: Phase-locked variations of emission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panoglou, Despina; Faes, Daniel M.; Carciofi, Alex C.; Okazaki, Atsuo T.; Baade, Dietrich; Rivinius, Thomas; Borges Fernandes, Marcelo

2018-01-01

In this paper, we present the first results of radiative transfer calculations on decretion discs of binary Be stars. A smoothed particle hydrodynamics code computes the structure of Be discs in coplanar circular binary systems for a range of orbital and disc parameters. The resulting disc configuration consists of two spiral arms, and this can be given as input into a Monte Carlo code, which calculates the radiative transfer along the line of sight for various observational coordinates. Making use of the property of steady disc structure in coplanar circular binaries, observables are computed as functions of the orbital phase. Some orbital-phase series of line profiles are given for selected parameter sets under various viewing angles, to allow comparison with observations. Flat-topped profiles with and without superimposed multiple structures are reproduced, showing, for example, that triple-peaked profiles do not have to be necessarily associated with warped discs and misaligned binaries. It is demonstrated that binary tidal effects give rise to phase-locked variability of the violet-to-red (V/R) ratio of hydrogen emission lines. The V/R ratio exhibits two maxima per cycle; in certain cases those maxima are equal, leading to a clear new V/R cycle every half orbital period. This study opens a way to identifying binaries and to constraining the parameters of binary systems that exhibit phase-locked variations induced by tidal interaction with a companion star.

Outcome assessments in children with cerebral palsy, part II: discriminatory ability of outcome tools.

PubMed

Bagley, Anita M; Gorton, George; Oeffinger, Donna; Barnes, Douglas; Calmes, Janine; Nicholson, Diane; Damiano, Diane; Abel, Mark; Kryscio, Richard; Rogers, Sarah; Tylkowski, Chester

2007-03-01

Discriminatory ability of several pediatric outcome tools was assessed relative to Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level in patients with cerebral palsy. Five hundred and sixty-two patients (400 with diplegia, 162 with hemiplegia; 339 males, 223 females; age range 4-18y, mean 11y 1mo [SD 3y 7mo]), classified as GMFCS Levels I to III, participated in this prospective multicenter, cross-sectional study. All tools were completed by parents and participants when appropriate. Effect size indices (ESIs) for parametric variables and odds ratios for non-parametric data quantified the magnitude of differences across GMFCS levels. Binary logistic regression models determined discrimination, and receiver operating characteristic curves addressed sensitivity and specificity. Between Levels I and II, the most discriminatory tools were Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM-66), velocity, and WeeFIM Mobility. Between Levels II and III, the most discriminatory tools were GMFM Dimension E, Pediatric Functional Independence Measure (WeeFIM) Self-Care and Mobility, cadence, and Gillette Functional Assessment Questionnaire Question 1. Large ESIs were noted for Parent and Child reports of Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument (PODCI) Sports & Physical Function, Parent report of PODCI Global Function, GMFM Dimension E, and GMFM-66 across all GMFCS level comparisons. The least discriminatory tools were the Quality of Life and cognition measures; however, these are important in comprehensive assessments of treatment effects.

Independent Life Skills among psychosocial care network users of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Cândida Garcia Sinott Silveira; Jardim, Vanda Maria da Rosa; Kantorski, Luciane Prado; Coimbra, Valeria Cristina Christello; Treichel, Carlos Alberto Dos Santos; Francchini, Beatriz; Bretanha, Andreia Ferreira; Neutzling, Aline Dos Santos

2016-08-01

This is a cross-sectional study that aims to identify the prevalence of lower independent living skills and their associations in 390 users of psychiatric community-based services in the state Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. For tracing the outcome it was used the "scale Independent Living Skills Survey", adopting a cut-off value lower than 2. The crude and adjusted analyses were conducted on binary logistic regressions and they considered a hierarchical model developed through a systematic literature review. In adjusted analysis the level of the same variables were adjusted to each other and to previous levels. The statistical significance remained as a < 0.05 p-value. The prevalence of smaller independent living skills was 33% and their associations were: younger age; no partner; lower education; resident at SRT; diagnosis of schizophrenia and younger diagnosis.

An R package for state-trace analysis.

PubMed

Prince, Melissa; Hawkins, Guy; Love, Jonathon; Heathcote, Andrew

2012-09-01

State-trace analysis (Bamber, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 19, 137-181, 1979) is a graphical analysis that can determine whether one or more than one latent variable mediates an apparent dissociation between the effects of two experimental manipulations. State-trace analysis makes only ordinal assumptions and so, is not confounded by range effects that plague alternative methods, especially when performance is measured on a bounded scale (such as accuracy). We describe and illustrate the application of a freely available GUI driven package, StateTrace, for the R language. StateTrace automates many aspects of a state-trace analysis of accuracy and other binary response data, including customizable graphics and the efficient management of computationally intensive Bayesian methods for quantifying evidence about the outcomes of a state-trace experiment, developed by Prince, Brown, and Heathcote (Psychological Methods, 17, 78-99, 2012).

Comparing methods for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects using observational data from health care databases.

PubMed

Wendling, T; Jung, K; Callahan, A; Schuler, A; Shah, N H; Gallego, B

2018-06-03

There is growing interest in using routinely collected data from health care databases to study the safety and effectiveness of therapies in "real-world" conditions, as it can provide complementary evidence to that of randomized controlled trials. Causal inference from health care databases is challenging because the data are typically noisy, high dimensional, and most importantly, observational. It requires methods that can estimate heterogeneous treatment effects while controlling for confounding in high dimensions. Bayesian additive regression trees, causal forests, causal boosting, and causal multivariate adaptive regression splines are off-the-shelf methods that have shown good performance for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in observational studies of continuous outcomes. However, it is not clear how these methods would perform in health care database studies where outcomes are often binary and rare and data structures are complex. In this study, we evaluate these methods in simulation studies that recapitulate key characteristics of comparative effectiveness studies. We focus on the conditional average effect of a binary treatment on a binary outcome using the conditional risk difference as an estimand. To emulate health care database studies, we propose a simulation design where real covariate and treatment assignment data are used and only outcomes are simulated based on nonparametric models of the real outcomes. We apply this design to 4 published observational studies that used records from 2 major health care databases in the United States. Our results suggest that Bayesian additive regression trees and causal boosting consistently provide low bias in conditional risk difference estimates in the context of health care database studies. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Models for various aspects of dwarf novae and nova-like stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladous, Constanze

1993-01-01

The first attempts to explain the nature of dwarf novae were based on the assumption of single-star phenomena, in which emission lines were assumed to be caused by circumstellar gas shells. The outburst behavior was tentatively ascribed to the kind of (also not understood) mechanism leading to nova outbursts. The realization that some, and possibly all, dwarf novae and nova-like stars (and novae) are binaries eventually led to models which bore more and more similarities to the modern interpretation on the basis of the Roche model. Not all cataclysmic variables are known binaries. In fact, with respect to the entire number of known objects, the proven binaries are still the minority, but all the brightest variables are in fact known to binaries. Not a single system is known which exhibits the usual characteristics of a cataclysmic variable and at the same time can be declared with certainty to be a single star. Two systems are known, the dwarf nova EY Cyg and the recurrent nova V1017 Sgr, in which, in spite of intensive search, no radial velocity variations have been found; but they still exhibit composite spectra consisting of a bright continuum, an emission spectrum, and a cool absorption spectrum. If the Roche model is correct, it is to be expected that a small percentage of objects is viewed pole-on, so orbital motions do not make themselves felt as Doppler shifts of spectral lines. So even these two systems support the hypothesis that all cataclysmic variables (with the possible exception of symbiotic stars) are binaries. In cataclysmic variables, it seems that the brightness changes observed in dwarf novae and nova-like stars in the optical and the UV are due directly to changes in the accretion disks. The study and understanding of accretion disks in these systems can bear potentially valuable consequences for many other fields in astronomy. The observed spectra of dwarf novae and nova-like stars comprise a fairly large range: pure emission spectra, pure absorption spectra, a mixture of both, asymmetric line profiles, very different slopes of the continuous flux distribution -- and one single system may exhibit all of these features at different times. Agreement and disagreement between computed and observed spectra should show whether or not the Roche model is applicable and where it probably will have to be modified and improved. Except for their outburst behavior and its immediate consequences, novae, dwarf novae, and nova-like stars cannot be physically distinguished from each other.

A randomised controlled trial of flow driver and bubble continuous positive airway pressure in preterm infants in a resource-limited setting.

PubMed

Mazmanyan, P; Mellor, K; Doré, C J; Modi, N

2016-01-01

The variable-flow flow driver (FD; EME) and continuous-flow bubble (Fisher-Paykel) continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) systems are widely used. As these differ in cost and technical requirements, determining comparative efficacy is important particularly where resources are limited. We performed a randomised, controlled, equivalence trial of CPAP systems. We specified the margin of equivalence as 2 days. We analysed binary variables by logistical regression adjusted for gestation, and log transformed continuous variables by multiple linear regression adjusted for gestation, sex and antenatal steroids. A neonatal unit with no blood gas analyser or surfactant availability and limited X-ray and laboratory facilities Neonates <37 weeks of gestation. We provided CPAP at delivery followed by randomisation to FD or bubble (B). Primary outcome included total days receiving CPAP; secondary outcomes included days receiving CPAP, supplemental oxygen, ventilation, death, pneumothorax and nasal excoriation. We randomised 125 infants (B 66, FD 59). Differences in infant outcomes on B and FD were not statistically significant. The median (range) for CPAP days for survivors was B 0.8 (0.04 to 17.5), FD 0.5 (0.04 to 5.3). B:FD (95% CI) ratios were CPAP days 1.3 (0.9 to 2.1), CPAP plus supplementary oxygen days 1.2 (0.7 to 1.9). B:FD (95% CI) ORs were death 2.3 (0.2 to 28), ventilation 2.1 (0.5 to 9), nasal excoriation 1.2 (0.2 to 8) and pneumothorax 2.4 (0.2 to 26). In a resource-limited setting we found B CPAP equivalent to FD CPAP in the total number of days receiving CPAP within a margin of 2 days. ISRCTN22578364. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

A New Catalog of Contact Binary Stars from ROTSE-I Sky Patrols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gettel, S. J.; McKay, T. A.; Geske, M. T.

2005-05-01

Over 65,000 variable stars have been detected in the data from the ROTSE-I Sky Patrols. Using period-color and light curve selection techniques, about 5000 objects have been identified as contact binaries. This selection is tested for completeness against EW objects in the GCVS. By utilizing infrared color data from 2MASS, we fit a period-color-luminosity relation to these stars and estimate their distances.

A New Orbit for the Eclipsing Binary V577 Oph

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffery, Elizabeth J.; Barnes, Thomas G. III; Montemayor, Thomas J.

Pulsating stars in eclipsing binary systems are unique objects for providing constraints on stellar models. To fully leverage the information available from the binary system, full orbital radial velocity curves must be obtained. We report 23 radial velocities for components of the eclipsing binary V577 Oph, whose primary star is a δ Sct variable. The velocities cover a nearly complete orbit and a time base of 20 years. We computed orbital elements for the binary and compared them to the ephemeris computed by Creevey et al. The comparison shows marginally different results. In particular, a change in the systemic velocitymore » by −2 km s{sup −1} is suggested by our results. We compare this systemic velocity difference to that expected due to reflex motion of the binary in response to the third body in the system. The systemic velocity difference is consistent with reflex motion, given our mass determination for the eclipsing binary and the orbital parameters determined by Volkov and Volkova for the three-body orbit. We see no evidence for the third body in our spectra, but we do see strong interstellar Na D lines that are consistent in strength with the direction and expected distance of V577 Oph.« less

IS NSVS 5066754 A NEAR-CONTACT OR A MARGINAL CONTACT BINARY?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samec, Ronald G.; Nyaude, Ropafadzo; Caton, Daniel B.

BVR{sub cIc} light curves of NSVS 5066754 were taken on 2014 May at Dark Sky Observatory in North Carolina. This variable is a solar-type eclipsing binary ( T 1 ∼ 5750 K) with a period of only 0.3751689(1) days. It appeared to be one of the shortest periods in Shaw’s list of near-contact binaries. The Binary Maker fits and our Wilson–Devinney solutions show that the binary could have both semidetached and marginal contact binary configurations. Five new times of minimum light were calculated, along with two minima determined from archived All Sky Automated Survey observations. From these minima and the discovery epoch, amore » quadratic ephemeris was determined. Thus, a magnetic braking scenario is possible. Both semidetached and contact models were explored. A marginal contact solution had the best sum of square residuals. It gave a mass ratio of ∼0.5, and a component temperature difference of ∼360 K, albeit somewhat large for a contact binary. Two substantial cool spots were determined in this solution with 37° and 28° radii and t-factors or 0.94 and 0.78 respectively. The fill-out is very shallow, ∼106%. It may have recently achieved contact.« less

An Extensive Census of Hubble Space Telescope Counterparts to Chandra X-Ray Sources in the Globular Cluster 47 Tucanae. II. Time Series and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, Peter D.; Gilliland, Ronald L.; Heinke, Craig O.; Grindlay, Jonathan E.

2003-10-01

We report time series and variability information for the optical identifications of X-ray sources in 47 Tucanae reported in Paper I (at least 22 cataclysmic variables [CVs] and 29 active binaries). The radial distribution of the CVs is indistinguishable from that of the millisecond pulsars (MSPs) detected by Freire et al. A study of the eight CVs with secure orbital periods (two obtained from the Chandra study of Grindlay et al.) shows that the 47 Tuc CVs have fainter accretion disks, in the V band, than field CVs with similar periods. These faint disks and the faint absolute magnitudes (MV) of the 47 Tuc CVs suggests they have low accretion rates. One possible explanation is that the 47 Tuc objects may be a more representative sample of CVs, down to our detection threshold, than the CVs found in the field (where many low accretion rate systems are believed to be undiscovered), showing the advantages of deep globular cluster observations. The median FX/Fopt value for the 47 Tuc CVs is higher than that of all known classes of field CV, partly because of the faint MV values and partly because of the relatively high X-ray luminosities (LX). The latter are only seen in DQ Her systems in the field, but the 47 Tuc CVs are much fainter optically than most field DQ Her's. Previous work by Edmonds et al. has shown that the four brightest CVs in NGC 6397 have optical spectra and broadband colors that are consistent with DQ Her's having lower than average accretion rates. Some combination of magnetic behavior and low accretion rates may be able to explain our observations, but the results at present are ambiguous, since no class of field CV has distributions of both LX and MV that are consistent with those of the 47 Tuc CVs. The radial distribution of the X-ray detected active binaries is indistinguishable from that of the much larger sample of optical variables (eclipsing and contact binaries and BY Dra variables) detected in previous Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) studies by Albrow et al. The X-ray properties of these objects (luminosity, hardness ratios, and variability) are consistent with those of active binaries found in field studies, and the FX/Fopt distribution is significantly different from those of the CVs and the MSPs that are detected (or possibly detected) in the optical. Despite these results, we examine the possibility that a few of the active binaries are MSPs with main-sequence companions resulting from double exchanges in the crowded core of 47 Tuc. No solid evidence is found for a significant population of such objects, and therefore, using the methods of Grindlay et al., we estimate that the number of MSPs in 47 Tuc with luminosities above 1030 ergs s-1 is ~30-40, near the previous lower limit. We present the results of a new, deeper search for faint low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) in quiescence. One reasonable and one marginal candidate for optical identification of a quiescent LMXB was found (one is already known). Finally, it is shown that the periods of the blue variables showing little or no evidence for X-ray emission are too long for Roche lobe filling (if the variations are ellipsoidal). These blue variables also show no evidence for the large flickering levels seen in comparably bright CVs. At present we have no satisfactory explanation for these objects, although some may be detached white dwarf-main-sequence star binaries. Based on observations with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope obtained at STScI, which is operated by AURA, Inc. under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.

A Chandra X-ray census of the interacting binaries in old open clusters - NGC 188

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vats, Smriti; Van Den Berg, Maureen

2017-01-01

We present a new X-ray study of NGC 188, one of the oldest open clusters known in the Milky Way (7 Gyr). Our X-ray observation using the Chandra X-ray Observatory is aimed at uncovering the population of close interacting binaries in the cluster. We detect 84 X-ray sources with a limiting X-ray luminosity, LX ~ 4×1029 erg s-1 (0.3-7 keV), of which 28 are within the half-mass radius. Of these, 13 are proper-motion or radial-velocity cluster members, wherein we identify a mix of active binaries (ABs) and blue straggler stars (BSSs). We also identify one tentative cataclysmic variable (CV) candidate which is a known short-period photometric variable, but whose membership to NGC 188 is unknown. We have compared the X-ray luminosity per unit of cluster mass (i.e. the X-ray emissivity) of NGC 188 with those of other old Galactic open clusters and dense globular clusters (47 Tuc, NGC 6397). Our findings confirm the earlier result that old open clusters have higher X-ray emissivities than the globular clusters (LX ≥1×1030 erg s-1). This may be explained by dynamical encounters in globulars, which could have a net effect of destroying binaries, or the typically higher metallicities of open clusters. We find one intriguing X-ray source in NGC 188 that is a BSS and cluster member, whose X-ray luminosity cannot be explained by its currently understood binary configuration. Its X-ray detection invokes the need for a third companion in the system.

HESS J1844-030: A New Gamma-Ray Binary?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCall, Hannah; Errando, Manel

2018-01-01

Gamma-ray binaries are comprised of a massive, main-sequence star orbiting a neutron star or black hole that generates bright gamma-ray emission. Only six of these systems have been discovered. Here we report on a candidate stellar-binary system associated with the unidentified gamma-ray source HESS J1844-030, whose detection was revealed in the H.E.S.S. galactic plane survey. Analysis of 60 ks of archival Chandra data and over 100 ks of XMM-Newton data reveal a spatially associated X-ray counterpart to this TeV-emitting source (E>1012 eV), CXO J1845-031. The X-ray spectra derived from these exposures yields column density absorption in the range nH = (0.4 - 0.7) x 1022 cm-2, which is below the total galactic value for that part of the sky, indicating that the source is galactic. The flux from CXO J1845-031 increases with a factor of up to 2.5 in a 60 day timescale, providing solid evidence for flux variability at a confidence level exceeding 7 standard deviations. The point-like nature of the source, the flux variability of the nearby X-ray counterpart, and the low column density absorption are all indicative of a binary system. Once confirmed, HESS J1844-030 would represent only the seventh known gamma-ray binary, providing valuable data to advance our understanding of the physics of pulsars and stellar winds and testing high-energy astrophysical processes at timescales not present in other classes of objects.

Efficient Variable Selection Method for Exposure Variables on Binary Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohno, Manabu; Tarumi, Tomoyuki

In this paper, we propose a new variable selection method for "robust" exposure variables. We define "robust" as property that the same variable can select among original data and perturbed data. There are few studies of effective for the selection method. The problem that selects exposure variables is almost the same as a problem that extracts correlation rules without robustness. [Brin 97] is suggested that correlation rules are possible to extract efficiently using chi-squared statistic of contingency table having monotone property on binary data. But the chi-squared value does not have monotone property, so it's is easy to judge the method to be not independent with an increase in the dimension though the variable set is completely independent, and the method is not usable in variable selection for robust exposure variables. We assume anti-monotone property for independent variables to select robust independent variables and use the apriori algorithm for it. The apriori algorithm is one of the algorithms which find association rules from the market basket data. The algorithm use anti-monotone property on the support which is defined by association rules. But independent property does not completely have anti-monotone property on the AIC of independent probability model, but the tendency to have anti-monotone property is strong. Therefore, selected variables with anti-monotone property on the AIC have robustness. Our method judges whether a certain variable is exposure variable for the independent variable using previous comparison of the AIC. Our numerical experiments show that our method can select robust exposure variables efficiently and precisely.

Topology of black hole binary-single interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsing, Johan; Ilan, Teva

2018-05-01

We present a study on how the outcomes of binary-single interactions involving three black holes (BHs) distribute as a function of the initial conditions; a distribution we refer to as the topology. Using a N-body code that includes BH finite sizes and gravitational wave (GW) emission in the equation of motion (EOM), we perform more than a million binary-single interactions to explore the topology of both the Newtonian limit and the limit at which general relativistic (GR) effects start to become important. From these interactions, we are able to describe exactly under which conditions BH collisions and eccentric GW capture mergers form, as well as how GR in general modifies the Newtonian topology. This study is performed on both large- and microtopological scales. We further describe how the inclusion of GW emission in the EOM naturally leads to scenarios where the binary-single system undergoes two successive GW mergers.

A novel asynchronous access method with binary interfaces

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background Traditionally synchronous access strategies require users to comply with one or more time constraints in order to communicate intent with a binary human-machine interface (e.g., mechanical, gestural or neural switches). Asynchronous access methods are preferable, but have not been used with binary interfaces in the control of devices that require more than two commands to be successfully operated. Methods We present the mathematical development and evaluation of a novel asynchronous access method that may be used to translate sporadic activations of binary interfaces into distinct outcomes for the control of devices requiring an arbitrary number of commands to be controlled. With this method, users are required to activate their interfaces only when the device under control behaves erroneously. Then, a recursive algorithm, incorporating contextual assumptions relevant to all possible outcomes, is used to obtain an informed estimate of user intention. We evaluate this method by simulating a control task requiring a series of target commands to be tracked by a model user. Results When compared to a random selection, the proposed asynchronous access method offers a significant reduction in the number of interface activations required from the user. Conclusion This novel access method offers a variety of advantages over traditionally synchronous access strategies and may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts, with primary relevance to applications involving direct object manipulation. PMID:18959797

Contribution of primary care to health: an individual level analysis from Tibet, China.

PubMed

Wang, Wenhua; Shi, Leiyu; Yin, Aitian; Mao, Zongfu; Maitland, Elizabeth; Nicholas, Stephen; Liu, Xiaoyun

2015-11-30

There have been significant improvements in health outcomes in Tibet, health disparities between Tibet and the rest of China has been greatly reduced. This paper tests whether there was a positive association between good primary care and better health outcomes in Tibet. A validated Tibetan version of the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT-T) was used to collect data on 1386 patients aged over 18 years old accessing primary care. Self-rated health (SRH) was employed to measure health outcomes. A multiple binary logistic regression model was used to explore the association between primary care quality and self-rated health status after controlling for socio-demographic and lifestyle variables. This study found that primary care quality had a significant positive association with self-rated health status. Among the nine domains of PCAT-T, family centeredness domain had the highest Odds Ratio (OR = 1.013) with SRH. Patients located in rural area, with higher education levels, without depression, and less frequent drinking were more likely to self-rate as "good health" compared with the reference group. In Tibet, higher quality primary care was associated with better self-rated health status. Primary care should be much strengthened in future health system reform in Tibet.

Vital statistics and early death predictors of North American professional basketball players: A historical examination.

PubMed

Lemez, Srdjan; Wattie, Nick; Lawler, Tyler; Baker, Joseph

2018-07-01

While empirical evidence suggests that elite athletes have superior lifespan outcomes relative to the general population, less is known regarding their causes of death. The purpose of this study was to critically examine the mortality outcomes of deceased National Basketball Association and American Basketball Association players. Death data were collected from publicly available sources until 11 December 2015, and causes of death were categorized using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD). Mortality was measured through: i) cause-specific crude death rates (CDR), ii) estimates of death rates per athlete-year (AY), and iii) binary and multinomial regression analyses. We identified 514 causes of death from 787 deceased players (M = 68.1 y ± 16.0) from 16 different ICD groups, 432 of which were from natural causes. Findings showed similar leading causes of death and CDRs to sex- and race-matched controls, higher death rate differences per AY within time-dependent variables (i.e., birth decade, race, and height), and a higher likelihood of dying below the median age of death for black and taller players, although this was highly confounded by birth decade. More complete knowledge of mortality outcomes would provide broad public health applications and disarm harmful stereotypes of elite athlete health.

Foundations of an effective-one-body model for coalescing binaries on eccentric orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinderer, Tanja; Babak, Stanislav

2017-11-01

We develop the foundations of an effective-one-body (EOB) model for eccentric binary coalescences that includes the conservative dynamics, radiation reaction, and gravitational waveform modes from the inspiral and the merger-ringdown signals. Our approach uses the strategy that is commonly employed in black-hole perturbation theory: we introduce an efficient, relativistic parameterization of the dynamics that is defined by the orbital geometry and consists of a set of phase variables and quantities that evolve only due to gravitational radiation reaction. Specializing to nonspinning binaries, we derive the EOB equations of motion for the new variables and make use of the fundamental frequencies of the motion to compute the binary's radiative multipole moments that determine the gravitational waves. Our treatment has several advantages over the quasi-Keplerian approach that is often used in post-Newtonian (PN) calculations: a smaller set of variables, parameters that reflect the features of strong-field dynamics, and a greater transparency of the calculations when using the fundamental frequencies that leads to simplifications and an unambiguous orbit-averaging operation. While our description of the conservative dynamics is fully relativistic, we limit explicit derivations in the radiative sector to 1.5PN order for simplicity. This already enables us to establish methods for computing both instantaneous and hereditary contributions to the gravitational radiation in EOB coordinates that have straightforward extensions to higher PN order. The weak-field, small eccentricity limit of our results for the orbit-averaged fluxes agrees with known PN results when expressed in terms of gauge-invariant quantities. We further address considerations for the numerical implementation of the model and the completion of the waveforms to include the merger and ringdown signals, and provide illustrative results.

LBT Discovery of a Yellow Supergiant Eclipsing Binary in the Dwarf Galaxy Holmberg IX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieto, J. L.; Stanek, K. Z.; Kochanek, C. S.; Weisz, D. R.; Baruffolo, A.; Bechtold, J.; Burwitz, V.; De Santis, C.; Gallozzi, S.; Garnavich, P. M.; Giallongo, E.; Hill, J. M.; Pogge, R. W.; Ragazzoni, R.; Speziali, R.; Thompson, D. J.; Wagner, R. M.

2008-01-01

In a variability survey of M81 using the Large Binocular Telescope we have discovered a peculiar eclipsing binary (MV ~ - 7.1) in the field of the dwarf galaxy Holmberg IX. It has a period of 271 days, and the light curve is well fit by an overcontact model in which both stars are overflowing their Roche lobes. It is composed of two yellow supergiants (V - Isimeq 1 mag, Teffsimeq 4800 K), rather than the far more common red or blue supergiants. Such systems must be rare. While we failed to find any similar systems in the literature, we did, however, note a second example. The SMC F0 supergiant R47 is a bright (MV ~ - 7.5) periodic variable whose All Sky Automated Survey (ASAS) light curve is well fit as a contact binary with a 181 day period. We propose that these systems are the progenitors of supernovae like SN 2004et and SN 2006ov, which appeared to have yellow progenitors. The binary interactions (mass transfer, mass loss) limit the size of the supergiant to give it a higher surface temperature than an isolated star at the same core evolutionary stage. We also discuss the possibility of this variable being a long-period Cepheid. Based on data acquired using the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT). The LBT is an international collaboration among institutions in the United States, Italy and Germany. LBT Corporation partners are The University of Arizona on behalf of the Arizona university system; Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, Italy; LBT Beteiligungsgesellschaft, Germany, representing the Max-Planck Society, the Astrophysical Institute Potsdam, and Heidelberg University; The Ohio State University, and The Research Corporation, on behalf of The University of Notre Dame, University of Minnesota, and University of Virginia.

A Close Hidden Stellar Companion to the SX Phe-Type Variable Star DW Psc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, S.-B.; Li, L.-J.; Wang, S.-M.; He, J.-J.; Zhou, X.; Jiang, L.-Q.

2015-01-01

DW Psc is a high-amplitude SX Phe-type variable with a period of pulsation of 0.05875 days. Using a few newly determined times of maximum light together with those collected from the literature, the changes in the observed-calculated (O-C) diagram are analyzed. It is discovered that the O-C curve of DW Psc shows a cyclic variation with a period of 6.08 years and a semi-amplitude of 0.0066 days. The periodic variation is analyzed for the light travel time effect, which is due to the presence of a stellar companion ({{M}2}sin i˜ 0.45(+/- 0.03) {{M}⊙ }). The two-component stars in the binary system are orbiting each other in an eccentric orbit (e ˜ 0.4) at an orbital separation of about 2.7(±0.3) AU. The detection of a close stellar companion to an SX Phe-type star supports the idea that SX Phe-type pulsating stars are blue stragglers that were formed from the merging of close binaries. The stellar companion has played an important role in the merging of the original binary by removing angular momentum from the central binary during early dynamical interaction or/and late dynamical evolution. After the more massive component in DW Psc evolves into a red giant, the cool close companion should help to remove the giant envelope via possible critical Roche-lobe overflow, and the system may be a progenitor of a cataclysmic variable. The detection of a close stellar companion to DW Psc makes it a very interesting system to study in the future.

Inference and sample size calculation for clinical trials with incomplete observations of paired binary outcomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Song; Cao, Jing; Ahn, Chul

2017-02-20

We investigate the estimation of intervention effect and sample size determination for experiments where subjects are supposed to contribute paired binary outcomes with some incomplete observations. We propose a hybrid estimator to appropriately account for the mixed nature of observed data: paired outcomes from those who contribute complete pairs of observations and unpaired outcomes from those who contribute either pre-intervention or post-intervention outcomes. We theoretically prove that if incomplete data are evenly distributed between the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods, the proposed estimator will always be more efficient than the traditional estimator. A numerical research shows that when the distribution of incomplete data is unbalanced, the proposed estimator will be superior when there is moderate-to-strong positive within-subject correlation. We further derive a closed-form sample size formula to help researchers determine how many subjects need to be enrolled in such studies. Simulation results suggest that the calculated sample size maintains the empirical power and type I error under various design configurations. We demonstrate the proposed method using a real application example. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of genetic algorithm as a variable selection method on different chemometric models applied for the analysis of binary mixture of amoxicillin and flucloxacillin: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attia, Khalid A. M.; Nassar, Mohammed W. I.; El-Zeiny, Mohamed B.; Serag, Ahmed

2016-03-01

Different chemometric models were applied for the quantitative analysis of amoxicillin (AMX), and flucloxacillin (FLX) in their binary mixtures, namely, partial least squares (PLS), spectral residual augmented classical least squares (SRACLS), concentration residual augmented classical least squares (CRACLS) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). All methods were applied with and without variable selection procedure (genetic algorithm GA). The methods were used for the quantitative analysis of the drugs in laboratory prepared mixtures and real market sample via handling the UV spectral data. Robust and simpler models were obtained by applying GA. The proposed methods were found to be rapid, simple and required no preliminary separation steps.

Untangling Binaries: Where Canada Sits in the "21st Century Debate"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher, Tiffany L.; Rowsell, Jennifer

2017-01-01

This article examines the extent to which the competencies of the 21st century learner are reflected in the learning outcomes within the English language arts curriculum standards documents for the Canadian provinces. Manifest summative content analysis was used to code learning outcomes in accordance with themes derived from the competencies of…

A Statistical Model for Misreported Binary Outcomes in Clustered RCTs of Education Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schochet, Peter Z.

2013-01-01

In randomized control trials (RCTs) of educational interventions, there is a growing literature on impact estimation methods to adjust for missing student outcome data using such methods as multiple imputation, the construction of nonresponse weights, casewise deletion, and maximum likelihood methods (see, for example, Allison, 2002; Graham, 2009;…

Using HMXBs to Probe Massive Binary Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garofali, Kristen

2017-09-01

We propose using deep archival Chandra data of M33 to characterize the distribution of physical parameters for the high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) population from X-ray spectra, X-ray lightcurves, and identified optical counterparts coupled with ground-based spectroscopy. Our analysis will provide the largest clean sample of HMXBs in M33, including hardness, short- and long-term variability, luminosity, and ages. These measurements will be compared across M33 and to HMXB studies in other nearby galaxies to test correlations between HMXB population and host properties such as metallicity and star formation rate. Furthermore, our measurements will yield empirical constraints on prescriptions for models of the formation and evolution of massive stars in binaries.

Evaluating a complex intervention with a single outcome may not be a good idea: an example from a randomised trial of stroke case management.

PubMed

Mayo, Nancy E; Scott, Susan

2011-11-01

to estimate the extent to which a case-management intervention for persons newly discharged into the community following an acute stroke effected a change in stroke outcome in comparison with usual care. a re-analysis of stratified, balanced, randomised clinical trial. five university-affiliated acute-care hospitals in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. a total of 190 persons (mean age 70 years) returning home directly from the acute-care hospital following a first or recurrent stroke with a need for health-care supervision post-discharge because of low function, co-morbidity or isolation. for 6 weeks following discharge a nurse case manager delivered, depending on need, over 50 different nursing interventions (range 2-15 per person), which targeted physical, emotional and psychological impairments, role participation restrictions and health perception. seven of the SF-36 subscales were used to measure the targeted constructs, at the post-intervention and 6 month evaluations. Seven binary response variables were created with a change of 10 points the criterion for individual response. Generalised estimating equations, equivalent to a logistic regression for multiple outcomes, were used. the odds of responding to one or more outcomes was 41% greater in the intervention group than in the control group [odds ratio (OR): 1.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.79]. an analysis considering the complexity of the intervention and outcomes targeted indicated effectiveness of the nurse case-management post-stroke, whereas the traditional one outcome analysis did not.

Sufficient Dimension Reduction for Longitudinally Measured Predictors

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Forzani, Liliana; Bura, Efstathia

2013-01-01

We propose a method to combine several predictors (markers) that are measured repeatedly over time into a composite marker score without assuming a model and only requiring a mild condition on the predictor distribution. Assuming that the first and second moments of the predictors can be decomposed into a time and a marker component via a Kronecker product structure, that accommodates the longitudinal nature of the predictors, we develop first moment sufficient dimension reduction techniques to replace the original markers with linear transformations that contain sufficient information for the regression of the predictors on the outcome. These linear combinations can then be combined into a score that has better predictive performance than the score built under a general model that ignores the longitudinal structure of the data. Our methods can be applied to either continuous or categorical outcome measures. In simulations we focus on binary outcomes and show that our method outperforms existing alternatives using the AUC, the area under the receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) curve, as a summary measure of the discriminatory ability of a single continuous diagnostic marker for binary disease outcomes. PMID:22161635

Radial velocity variability and stellar properties of FGK stars in the cores of NGC 2516 and NGC 2422

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, John I.; Mateo, Mario; White, Russel J.; Shectman, Stephen A.; Crane, Jeffrey D.

2018-04-01

We present multi-epoch high-dispersion optical spectra obtained with the Michigan/Magellan Fibre System of 126 and 125 Sun-like stars in the young clusters NGC 2516 (141 Myr) and NGC 2422 (73 Myr). We determine stellar properties including radial velocity (RV), Teff, [Fe/H], [α/Fe] and the line-of-sight rotation rate, vrsin (i), from these spectra. Our median RV precision of 80 m s-1 on individual epochs that span a temporal baseline of 1.1 yr enables us to investigate membership and stellar binarity, and to search for sub-stellar companions. We determine membership probabilities and RV variability probabilities for our sample along with candidate companion orbital periods for a select subset of stars. In NGC 2516, we identified 81 RV members, 27 spectroscopic binaries (17 previously identified as photometric binaries) and 16 other stars that show significant RV variability after accounting for average stellar jitter at the 74 m s-1 level. In NGC 2422, we identify 57 members, 11 spectroscopic binaries and three other stars that show significant RV variability after accounting for an average jitter of 138 m s-1. We use Monte Carlo simulations to verify our stellar jitter measurements, determine the proportion of exoplanets and stellar companions to which we are sensitive, and estimate companion-mass limits for our targets. We also report mean cluster metallicity, velocity and velocity dispersion based on our member targets. We identify 58 non-member stars as RV variables, 24 of which have RV amplitudes that imply stellar or brown-dwarf mass companions. Finally, we note the discovery of a separate RV clustering of stars in our NGC 2422 sample.

ISM Dust Grains and N-band Spectral Variability in the Spatially Resolved Subarcsecond Binary UY Aur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skemer, Andrew J.; Close, Laird M.; Hinz, Philip M.; Hoffmann, William F.; Greene, Thomas P.; Males, Jared R.; Beck, Tracy L.

2010-03-01

The 10 μm silicate feature is an essential diagnostic of dust-grain growth and planet formation in young circumstellar disks. The Spitzer Space Telescope has revolutionized the study of this feature, but due to its small (85 cm) aperture, it cannot spatially resolve small/medium-separation binaries (lsim3''; <~ 420 AU) at the distances of the nearest star-forming regions (~140 pc). Large, 6-10 m ground-based telescopes with mid-infrared instruments can resolve these systems. In this paper, we spatially resolve the 0farcs88 binary, UY Aur, with MMTAO/BLINC-MIRAC4 mid-infrared spectroscopy. We then compare our spectra to Spitzer/IRS (unresolved) spectroscopy, and resolved images from IRTF/MIRAC2, Keck/OSCIR, and Gemini/Michelle, which were taken over the past decade. We find that UY Aur A has extremely pristine, interstellar medium (ISM)-like grains and that UY Aur B has an unusually shaped silicate feature, which is probably the result of blended emission and absorption from foreground extinction in its disk. We also find evidence for variability in both UY Aur A and UY Aur B by comparing synthetic photometry from our spectra with resolved imaging from previous epochs. The photometric variability of UY Aur A could be an indication that the silicate emission itself is variable, as was recently found in EX Lupi. Otherwise, the thermal continuum is variable, and either the ISM-like dust has never evolved, or it is being replenished, perhaps by UY Aur's circumbinary disk. The observations reported here were partially obtained at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC 5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program.

A CCD Search for Variable Stars of Spectral Type B in the Northern Hemisphere Open Clusters. VII. NGC 1502

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalska, G.; Pigulski, A.; Stęlicki, M.; Narwid, A.

2009-12-01

We present results of variability search in the field of the young open cluster NGC 1502. Eight variable stars were discovered. Of six other stars in the observed field that were suspected for variability, we confirm variability of two, including one β Cep star, NGC 1502-26. The remaining four suspects were found to be constant in our photometry. In addition, UBVIC photometry of the well-known massive eclipsing binary SZ Cam was obtained. The new variable stars include: two eclipsing binaries of which one is a relatively bright detached system with an EA-type light curve, an α2 CVn-type variable, an SPB candidate, a field RR Lyr star and three other variables showing variability of unknown origin. The variability of two of them is probably related to their emission in Hα, which has been measured by means of the α index obtained for 57 stars brighter than V≍16 mag in the central part of the observed field. Four other non-variable stars with emission in Hα were also found. Additionally, we provide VIC photometry for stars down to V=17 mag and UB photometry for about 50 brightest stars in the observed field. We also show that the 10 Myr isochrone fits very well the observed color-magnitude diagram if a distance of 1 kpc and mean reddening, E(V-IC)=0.9 mag are adopted.

The Predictors and Determinants of Inter-Seasonal Success in a Professional Soccer Team

PubMed Central

Kite, Christopher S.; Nevill, Alan

2017-01-01

Abstract The aims of this study were to 1) directly compare the performances of a professional soccer team over three seasons, 2) identify key variables that discriminated between a successful or unsuccessful performance, and 3) identify variables that best predicted success. ANOVA revealed that attempted and completed passes were significantly lower (both p < 0.001) in the most successful season (S1). Additionally, shot effectiveness was significantly less (p < 0.001) in their least successful season (S3) (vs S1 -11.61%; d = 0.735; vs S2 -12.02%; d = 0.760). When the match outcome was considered, they attempted significantly fewer passes when they won (-60.26; p = 0.002; d = -0.729) or drew (-44.87; p = 0.023; d = -0.543) compared to when they lost. The binary logistic regression analysis also retained passing variables. The team should attempt fewer passes, but ensure that more of these passes are completed. With away matches, the effect became more pronounced (β = -0.042, OR = 0.959, p = 0.012). In conclusion, the team should adopt a more direct style of play. They should move the ball into a shooting position with fewer passes and ensure that more shots are on the target. PMID:28828086

The infrared counterpart of the eclipsing X-ray binary HO253 + 193

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zuckerman, B.; Becklin, E. E.; Mclean, I. S.; Patterson, Joseph

1992-01-01

We report the identification of the infrared counterpart of the pulsating X-ray source HO253 + 193. It is a highly reddened star varying in K light with a period near 3 hr, but an apparent even-odd effect in the light curve implies that the true period is 6.06 hr. Together with the recent report of X-ray eclipses at the latter period, this establishes the close binary nature of the source. Infrared minimum occurs at X-ray minimum, certifying that the infrared variability arises from the tidal distortion of the lobe-filling secondary. The absence of a point source at radio wavelengths, plus the distance derived from the infrared data, suggests that the binary system is accidentally located behind the dense core of the molecular cloud Lynds 1457. The eclipses and pulsations in the X-ray light curve, coupled with the hard X-ray spectrum and low luminosity, demonstrate that HO253 + 193 contains an accreting magnetic white dwarf, and hence belongs to the 'DQ Herculis' class of cataclysmic variables.

A periodicity of approximately 1 hour in X-ray emission from the active galaxy RE J1034+396.

PubMed

Gierliński, Marek; Middleton, Matthew; Ward, Martin; Done, Chris

2008-09-18

Active galactic nuclei and quasars are thought to be scaled-up versions of Galactic black hole binaries, powered by accretion onto supermassive black holes with masses of 10(6)-10(9) M[symbol: see text], as opposed to the approximately 10 M [symbol: see text] in binaries (here M [symbol: see text] is the solar mass). One example of the similarities between these two types of systems is the characteristic rapid X-ray variability seen from the accretion flow. The power spectrum of this variability in black hole binaries consists of a broad noise with multiple quasi-periodic oscillations superimposed on it. Although the broad noise component has been observed in many active galactic nuclei, there have hitherto been no significant detections of quasi-periodic oscillations. Here we report the discovery of an approximately 1-hour X-ray periodicity in a bright active galaxy, RE J1034+396. The signal is highly statistically significant (at the 5.6 sigma level) and very coherent, with quality factor Q > 16. The X-ray modulation arises from the direct vicinity of the black hole.

The Chandra Delta Ori Large Project: Occultation Measurements of the Shocked Gas tn the Nearest Eclipsing O-Star Binary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corcoran, Michael F.; Nichols, Joy; Naze, Yael; Rauw, Gregor; Pollock, Andrew; Moffat, Anthony; Richardson, Noel; Evans, Nancy; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Oskinova, Lida;

Eclipsing Binary V1178 Tau: A Reddening Independent Determination of the Age and Distance to NGC 1817

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedlund, Anne; Sandquist, Eric L.; Arentoft, Torben; Brogaard, Karsten; Grundahl, Frank; Stello, Dennis; Bedin, Luigi R.; Libralato, Mattia; Malavolta, Luca; Nardiello, Domenico; Molenda-Zakowicz, Joanna; Vanderburg, Andrew

2018-06-01

V1178 Tau is a double-lined spectroscopic eclipsing binary in NGC1817, one of the more massive clusters observed in the K2 mission. We have determined the orbital period (P = 2.20 d) for the first time, and we model radial velocity measurements from the HARPS and ALFOSC spectrographs, light curves collected by Kepler, and ground based light curves using the Eclipsing Light Curve code (ELC, Orosz & Hauschildt 2000). We present masses and radii for the stars in the binary, allowing for a reddening-independent means of determining the cluster age. V1178 Tau is particularly useful for calculating the age of the cluster because the stars are close to the cluster turnoff, providing a more precise age determination. Furthermore, because one of the stars in the binary is a delta Scuti variable, the analysis provides improved insight into their pulsations.

Observations, Roche Lobe Analysis, and Period Study of the Eclipsing Contact Binary System GM Canum Venaticorum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alton, K. B.; Nelson, R. H.

2018-06-01

GM CVn is an eclipsing W UMa binary system (P = 0.366984 d) which has been largely neglected since its variability was first detected during the ROTSE campaign (1999-2000). Other than a single unfiltered light curve (LC) no other photometric data have been published. LC data collected in three bandpasses (B, V, and Rc) at UnderOak Observatory (UO) produced three new times of minimum for GM CVn. These along with other eclipse timings from the literature were used to update the linear ephemeris. Roche modeling to produce synthetic LC fits to the observed data was accomplished using binary maker 3, wdwint56a, and phoebe v.31a. Newly acquired radial velocity data were pivotal to defining the absolute and geometric parameters for this partially eclipsing binary system. An unspotted solution achieved the best Roche model fits for the multi-color LCs collected in 2013.

Analysis of reflection effects in HS 2333+3927

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimanskii, V. V.; Yakin, D. G.; Borisov, N. V.; Bikmaev, I. F.

2012-11-01

The results of photometric and spectroscopic observations of the pre-cataclysmic variable HS 2333+3927, which is a HW Vir binary system, are analyzed. The parameters of the sdB subdwarf companion ( T eff = 37 500 ± 500 K, log g = 5.7 ± 0.05) and the chemical composition of its atmosphere are refined using a spectrum of the binary system obtained at minimum brightness. Reflection effects can fully explain the observed brightness variations of HS 2333+3927, changes in the HI and HeI line profiles, and distortions of the radial-velocity curve of the primary star. A new method for determining the component-mass ratios in HW Vir binaries, based on their radial-velocity curves and models of irradiated atmospheres, is proposed. The set of parameters obtained for the binary components corresponds to models of horizontal-branch sdB subdwarfs and main-sequence stars.

Maternal autonomy is inversely related to child stunting in Andhra Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Shroff, Monal; Griffiths, Paula; Adair, Linda; Suchindran, Chirayath; Bentley, Margaret

2009-01-01

Child stunting, an outcome of chronic undernutrition, contributes to poor quality of life, morbidity and mortality. In South Asia, the low status of women is thought to be one of the primary determinants of undernutrition across the lifespan. Low female status can result in compromised health outcomes for women, which in turn are related to lower infant birthweight and may affect the quality of infant care and nutrition. Maternal autonomy (defined as a woman's personal power in the household and her ability to influence and change her environment) is likely an important factor influencing child care and ultimately infant and child health outcomes. To examine the relationship between maternal autonomy and child stunting in Andhra Pradesh, India, we analysed data from National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-2. We used cross-sectional demographic, health and anthropometric information for mothers and their oldest child <36 months (n = 821) from NFHS-2. The main explanatory variables of autonomy are presented by four dimensions - decision making, permission to travel, attitude towards domestic violence and financial autonomy - constructed using seven binary variables. Logistic regression models were used to test associations between indicators of female autonomy and the risk of having a stunted child. Women with higher autonomy {indicated by access to money [odds ratio (OR) = 0.731; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.546, 0.981] and freedom to choose to go to the market [OR = 0.593; 95% CI 0.376, 0.933]} were significantly less likely to have a stunted child, after controlling for household socio-economic status and mother's education. In this south Indian state, two dimensions of female autonomy have an independent effect on child growth, suggesting the need for interventions that increase women's financial and physical autonomy.

One-year clinical outcomes of patients treated with everolimus-eluting bioresorbable vascular scaffolds versus everolimus-eluting metallic stents: a propensity score comparison of patients enrolled in the ABSORB EXTEND and SPIRIT trials.

PubMed

de Ribamar Costa, José; Abizaid, Alexandre; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Whitbourn, Robert; Jepson, Nigel; Perin, Marco; Steinwender, Clemens; Stuteville, Marrianne; Ediebah, Divine; Sudhir, Krishnankutty; Serruys, Patrick W

2016-11-20

We sought to compare the outcomes of low/moderate complexity patients treated with the Absorb BVS from the ABSORB EXTEND trial with patients treated with the XIENCE everolimus-eluting stent (EES), using propensity score (PS) matching of pooled data from the SPIRIT trials (SPIRIT II, SPIRIT III, SPIRIT IV) and the XIENCE V USA trial. ABSORB EXTEND was a prospective, single-arm, open-label clinical study in which 812 patients were enrolled at 56 sites. This study allowed the treatment of lesions ≤28 mm in length and with a reference vessel diameter of 2.0-3.8 mm (as assessed by online QCA). The propensity score was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with the cohort indicator as the binary outcome and other variables as the predictor variables. At one-year clinical follow-up, there was no statistical difference between groups with regard to MACE (5.0% vs. 4.8%, p=0.83), target lesion failure (5.0% vs. 4.7%, p=0.74), ischaemia-driven target vessel revascularisation (2.3% vs. 3.0%, p=0.38) and device thrombosis (1.0% vs. 0.3%, p=0.11). Myocardial infarction was higher with Absorb (3.3% vs. 1.5%, p=0.02), at the expense of periprocedural CK-MB elevation. Independent predictors of MACE among patients receiving Absorb BVS were treatment of multivessel disease, insulin-dependent diabetes and performance of post-dilation. At one-year follow-up, propensity score-matched analysis demonstrated that the clinical safety and effectiveness of Absorb are comparable to those of XIENCE EES among non-complex patients treated with PCI.

Changes in food insecurity, nutritional status, and physical health status after antiretroviral therapy initiation in rural Uganda.

PubMed

Weiser, Sheri D; Gupta, Reshma; Tsai, Alexander C; Frongillo, Edward A; Grede, Nils; Kumbakumba, Elias; Kawuma, Annet; Hunt, Peter W; Martin, Jeffrey N; Bangsberg, David R

2012-10-01

To investigate whether time on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is associated with improvements in food security and nutritional status, and the extent to which associations are mediated by improved physical health status. The Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults newly initiating ART in Mbarara, Uganda. Participants initiating ART underwent quarterly structured interview and blood draws. The primary explanatory variable was time on ART, constructed as a set of binary variables for each 3-month period. Outcomes were food insecurity, nutritional status, and PHS. We fit multiple regression models with cluster-correlated robust estimates of variance to account for within-person dependence of observations over time, and analyses were adjusted for clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Two hundred twenty-eight ART-naive participants were followed for up to 3 years, and 41% were severely food insecure at baseline. The mean food insecurity score progressively declined (test for linear trend P < 0.0001), beginning with the second quarter (b = -1.6; 95% confidence interval: -2.7 to -0.45) and ending with the final quarter (b = -6.4; 95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -2.5). PHS and nutritional status improved in a linear fashion over study follow-up (P < 0.001). Inclusion of PHS in the regression model attenuated the relationship between ART duration and food security. Among HIV-infected individuals in Uganda, food insecurity decreased and nutritional status and PHS improved over time after initiation of ART. Changes in food insecurity were partially explained by improvements in PHS. These data support early initiation of ART in resource-poor settings before decline in functional status to prevent worsening food insecurity and its detrimental effects on HIV treatment outcomes.

Individual and collective exposure to political violence: Palestinian adolescents coping with conflict.

PubMed

Giacaman, Rita; Shannon, Harry S; Saab, Hana; Arya, Neil; Boyce, Will

2007-08-01

We conducted a survey of Palestinian adolescents in school. We hypothesized that collective and individual exposures to violence would both negatively affect adolescents' mental health. We also anticipated that the negative effect of collective exposures on mental health would be less than that of individual exposures. Our analysis was designed to test these hypotheses. A representative sample of 3415 students of 10th and 11th grades from the Ramallah District of the West Bank participated in the survey. The primary independent variables were scales of individual and collective exposures to trauma/violence (ETV) by the Israeli military and settlers. Factor analysis revealed several sub-scales. Outcome measures were constructed and included: a binary measure of depressive-like states, and emotional, depressive-like state, and somatic scales. Several variables were identified as possible covariates: gender, age, school-type, residence, employment status of father, and identity documents held. Logistic and multiple regression analyses revealed a strong relationship between ETV and adolescents' mental health, with both individual and collective exposures having independent effects. There was a higher prevalence of depressive-like symptoms among girls compared with boys, and in adolescents living in Palestinian refugee camps compared with those living in cities, towns and villages. The findings confirmed our hypothesis that both individual and collective ETV independently affect the mental health of adolescents. Contrary to expectations, individual exposures did not consistently have a greater negative effect on health outcomes than collective exposures, although the sub-scale of direct personal exposures to violence consistently showed the strongest effect among sub-scales. The results emphasize the importance of going beyond individual experiences and including the health outcomes of collective violation when analyzing violent and traumatic contexts.

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

PubMed

Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

2016-03-01

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Efficacy of a novel strategy for poststernotomy deep sternal infection after thoracic aorta replacement using a prosthetic graft.

PubMed

Kuriyama, Motone; Yoshida, Yukitaka; Ninomiya, Hitoshi; Yamamoto, Shin; Sasaguri, Shiro; Akita, Shinsuke; Mitsukawa, Nobuyuki

2018-05-01

Poststernotomy deep sternal wound infections are persistent and occasionally fatal, especially in cases involving prosthetic grafts, because of their complicated structure and virtual impossibility of removal. We aimed to verify the influence of cooperation with plastic surgeons and our novel strategy for treating deep sternal wound infection after aortic replacement on cardiovascular surgery outcomes. Nine hundred eighty-three consecutive patients were divided into two groups: an early group (2012-2013) and a late group (2014-2015). The late group had received cooperatively improved perioperative wound management: our novel strategy of deep sternal infection based on radical debridement and immediate reconstruction decided by reference to severities of the patient's general condition and widespread infection by early intervention of plastic surgeons. The groups were analysed retrospectively. Binary variables were analysed statistically with the Fisher exact test and continuous variables with the Mann-Whitney U test. Inter-group differences were assessed with the chi-square test. Twenty of 390 cases in the early group and 13 of 593 cases in the late group were associated with deep sternal infection. Morbidity rates of deep sternal wound infection and associated mortality rates 1 year after reconstruction surgery were significantly less (p <0.05 for both) in the late group. Intervention by plastic surgeons improved perioperative wound management outcomes. Our treatment strategy for deep sternal wound infection also reduced associated mortality rates. Facilities should consider the early inclusion of plastic surgeons in the treatment of patients undergoing aortic replacement to facilitate better outcomes. Copyright © 2018 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Handling incomplete correlated continuous and binary outcomes in meta-analysis of individual participant data.

PubMed

Gomes, Manuel; Hatfield, Laura; Normand, Sharon-Lise

2016-09-20

Meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) is increasingly utilised to improve the estimation of treatment effects, particularly among different participant subgroups. An important concern in IPD meta-analysis relates to partially or completely missing outcomes for some studies, a problem exacerbated when interest is on multiple discrete and continuous outcomes. When leveraging information from incomplete correlated outcomes across studies, the fully observed outcomes may provide important information about the incompleteness of the other outcomes. In this paper, we compare two models for handling incomplete continuous and binary outcomes in IPD meta-analysis: a joint hierarchical model and a sequence of full conditional mixed models. We illustrate how these approaches incorporate the correlation across the multiple outcomes and the between-study heterogeneity when addressing the missing data. Simulations characterise the performance of the methods across a range of scenarios which differ according to the proportion and type of missingness, strength of correlation between outcomes and the number of studies. The joint model provided confidence interval coverage consistently closer to nominal levels and lower mean squared error compared with the fully conditional approach across the scenarios considered. Methods are illustrated in a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comparing the effectiveness of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator devices alone to implantable cardioverter-defibrillator combined with cardiac resynchronisation therapy for treating patients with chronic heart failure. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Orbital evolution of small binary asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ćuk, Matija; Nesvorný, David

2010-06-01

About 15% of both near-Earth and main-belt asteroids with diameters below 10 km are now known to be binary. These small asteroid binaries are relatively uniform and typically contain a fast-spinning, flattened primary and a synchronously rotating, elongated secondary that is 20-40% as large (in diameter) as the primary. The principal formation mechanism for these binaries is now thought to be YORP (Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack) effect induced spin-up of the primary followed by mass loss and accretion of the secondary from the released material. It has previously been suggested (Ćuk, M. [2007]. Astrophys. J. 659, L57-L60) that the present population of small binary asteroids is in a steady state between production through YORP and destruction through binary YORP (BYORP), which should increase or decrease secondary's orbit, depending on the satellite's shape. However, BYORP-driven evolution has not been directly modeled until now. Here we construct a simple numerical model of the binary's orbital as well the secondary's rotational dynamics which includes BYORP and selected terms representing main solar perturbations. We find that many secondaries should be vulnerable to chaotic rotation even for relatively low-eccentricity mutual orbits. We also find that the precession of the mutual orbit for typical small binary asteroids might be dominated by the perturbations from the prolate and librating secondary, rather than the oblate primary. When we evolve the mutual orbit by BYORP we find that the indirect effects on the binary's eccentricity (through the coupling between the orbit and the secondary's spin) dominate over direct ones caused by the BYORP acceleration. In particular, outward evolution causes eccentricity to increase and eventually triggers chaotic rotation of the secondary. We conclude that the most likely outcome will be reestablishing of the synchronous lock with a "flipped" secondary which would then evolve back in. For inward evolution we find an initial decrease of eccentricity and secondary's librations, to be followed by later increase. We think that it is likely that various forms of dissipation we did not model may damp the secondary's librations close to the primary, allowing for further inward evolution and a possible merger. We conclude that a merger or a tidal disruption of the secondary are the most likely outcomes of the BYORP evolution. Dissociation into heliocentric pairs by BYORP alone should be very difficult, and satellite loss might be restricted to the minority of systems containing more than one satellite at the time.

A comparison of South Asian specific and established BMI thresholds for determining obesity prevalence in pregnancy and predicting pregnancy complications: findings from the Born in Bradford cohort.

PubMed

Bryant, M; Santorelli, G; Lawlor, D A; Farrar, D; Tuffnell, D; Bhopal, R; Wright, J

2014-03-01

To describe how maternal obesity prevalence varies by established international and South Asian specific body mass index (BMI) cut-offs in women of Pakistani origin and investigate whether different BMI thresholds can help to identify women at risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Prospective bi-ethnic birth cohort study (the Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort). Bradford, a deprived city in the North of the UK. A total of 8478 South Asian and White British pregnant women participated in the BiB cohort study. Maternal obesity prevalence; prevalence of known obesity-related adverse pregnancy outcomes: mode of birth, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), gestational diabetes, macrosomia and pre-term births. Application of South Asian BMI cut-offs increased prevalence of obesity in Pakistani women from 18.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.6-19.9) to 30.9% (95% CI 29.5-32.2). With the exception of pre-term births, there was a positive linear relationship between BMI and prevalence of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, across almost the whole BMI distribution. Risk of gestational diabetes and HDP increased more sharply in Pakistani women after a BMI threshold of at least 30 kg m(-2), but there was no evidence of a sharp increase in any risk factors at the new, lower thresholds suggested for use in South Asian women. BMI was a good single predictor of outcomes (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.596-0.685 for different outcomes); prediction was more discriminatory and accurate with BMI as a continuous variable than as a binary variable for any possible cut-off point. Applying the new South Asian threshold to pregnant women would markedly increase those who were referred for monitoring and lifestyle advice. However, our results suggest that lowering the BMI threshold in South Asian women would not improve the predictive ability for identifying those who were at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Comparative study of the Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores.

PubMed

Bojan, Mirela; Gerelli, Sébastien; Gioanni, Simone; Pouard, Philippe; Vouhé, Pascal

2011-09-01

The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC) and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) scores have been proposed for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. Previous studies found RACHS-1 to be a better predictor of outcome than the Aristotle Basic Complexity score. We compared the ability to predict operative mortality and morbidity between ACC, the latest update of the Aristotle method and RACHS-1. Morbidity was assessed by length of intensive care unit stay. We retrospectively enrolled patients undergoing congenital heart surgery. We modeled each score as a continuous variable, mortality as a binary variable, and length of stay as a censored variable. We compared performance between mortality and morbidity models using likelihood ratio tests for nested models and paired concordance statistics. Among all 1,384 patients enrolled, 30-day mortality rate was 3.5% and median length of intensive care unit stay was 3 days. Both scores strongly related to mortality, but ACC made better prediction than RACHS-1; c-indexes 0.87 (0.84, 0.91) vs 0.75 (0.65, 0.82). Both scores related to overall length of stay only during the first postoperative week, but ACC made better predictions than RACHS-1; U statistic=0.22, p<0.001. No significant difference was noted after adjusting RACHS-1 models on age, prematurity, and major extracardiac abnormalities. The ACC was a better predictor of operative mortality and length of intensive care unit stay than RACHS-1. In order to achieve similar performance, regression models including RACHS-1 need to be further adjusted on age, prematurity, and major extracardiac abnormalities. Copyright © 2011 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dolichoectatic aneurysms of the vertebrobasilar system: clinical and radiographic factors that predict poor outcomes.

PubMed

Xu, David S; Levitt, Michael R; Kalani, M Yashar S; Rangel-Castilla, Leonardo; Mulholland, Celene B; Abecassis, Isaac J; Morton, Ryan P; Nerva, John D; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Levy, Elad I; Spetzler, Robert F; Albuquerque, Felipe C; McDougall, Cameron G

2018-02-01

OBJECTIVE Fusiform dolichoectatic vertebrobasilar aneurysms are rare, challenging lesions. The natural history of these lesions and medium- and long-term patient outcomes are poorly understood. The authors sought to evaluate patient prognosis after diagnosis of fusiform dolichoectatic vertebrobasilar aneurysms and to identify clinical and radiographic predictors of neurological deterioration. METHODS The authors reviewed multiple, prospectively maintained, single-provider databases at 3 large-volume cerebrovascular centers to obtain data on patients with unruptured, fusiform, basilar artery dolichoectatic aneurysms diagnosed between January 1, 2000, and January 1, 2015. RESULTS A total of 50 patients (33 men, 17 women) were identified; mean clinical follow-up was 50.1 months and mean radiographic follow-up was 32.4 months. At last follow-up, 42% (n = 21) of aneurysms had progressed and 44% (n = 22) of patients had deterioration of their modified Rankin Scale scores. When patients were dichotomized into 2 groups- those who worsened and those who did not-univariate analysis showed 5 variables to be statistically significantly different: sex (p = 0.007), radiographic brainstem compression (p = 0.03), clinical posterior fossa compression (p < 0.001), aneurysmal growth on subsequent imaging (p = 0.001), and surgical therapy (p = 0.006). A binary logistic regression was then created to evaluate these variables. The only variable found to be a statistically significant predictor of clinical worsening was clinical symptoms of posterior fossa compression at presentation (p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Fusiform dolichoectatic vertebrobasilar aneurysms carry a poor prognosis, with approximately one-half of the patients deteriorating or experiencing progression of their aneurysm within 5 years. Despite being high risk, intervention-when carefully timed (before neurological decline)-may be beneficial in select patients.

Neither Basic Life Support knowledge nor self-efficacy are predictive of skills among dental students.

PubMed

Mac Giolla Phadraig, C; Ho, J D; Guerin, S; Yeoh, Y L; Mohamed Medhat, M; Doody, K; Hwang, S; Hania, M; Boggs, S; Nolan, A; Nunn, J

2017-08-01

Basic life support (BLS) is considered a core competence for the graduating dentist. This study aimed to measure BLS knowledge, self-efficacy and skills of undergraduate dental students in Dublin. This study consisted of a cross-sectional survey measuring BLS knowledge and self-efficacy, accompanied by a directly observed BLS skills assessment in a subsample of respondents. Data were collected in January 2014. Bivariate correlations between descriptive and outcome variables (knowledge, self-efficacy and skills) were tested using Pearson's chi-square. We included knowledge and self-efficacy as predictor variables, along with other variables showing association, into a binary logistic regression model with BLS skills as the outcome measure. One hundred and thirty-five students participated. Almost all (n = 133, 98.5%) participants had BLS training within the last 2 years. One hundred and four (77%) felt that they were capable of providing effective BLS (self-efficacy), whilst only 46 (34.1%) scored >80% of knowledge items correct. Amongst the skills (n = 85) subsample, 38.8% (n = 33) were found to pass the BLS skills assessment. Controlling for gender, age and skills assessor, the regression model did not identify a predictive relationship between knowledge or self-efficacy and BLS skills. Neither knowledge nor self-efficacy was predictive of BLS skills. Dental students had low levels of knowledge and skills in BLS. Despite this, their confidence in their ability to perform BLS was high and did not predict actual competence. There is a need for additional hands-on training, focusing on self-efficacy and BLS skills, particularly the use of AED. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Roles of context in acquisition of human instrumental learning: Implications for the understanding of the mechanisms underlying context-switch effects.

PubMed

Gámez, A Matías; León, Samuel P; Rosas, Juan M

2017-09-01

Four experiments in human instrumental learning explored the associations involving the context that develop after three trials of training on simple discriminations. Experiments 1 and 4 found a deleterious effect of switching the learning context that cannot be explained by the context-outcome binary associations commonly used to explain context-switch effects after short training in human predictive learning and in animal Pavlovian conditioning. Evidence for context-outcome (Experiment 2), context-discriminative stimulus (Experiment 3), and context-instrumental response (Experiment 4) binary associations was found within the same training paradigm, suggesting that contexts became associated with all the elements of the situation, regardless of whether those associations played a role in a specific context-switch effect detected on performance.

On Adaptation, Maximization, and Reinforcement Learning among Cognitive Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erev, Ido; Barron, Greg

2005-01-01

Analysis of binary choice behavior in iterated tasks with immediate feedback reveals robust deviations from maximization that can be described as indications of 3 effects: (a) a payoff variability effect, in which high payoff variability seems to move choice behavior toward random choice; (b) underweighting of rare events, in which alternatives…

Accretion states in X-ray binaries and their connection to GeV emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koerding, Elmar

Accretion onto compact objects is intrinsically a multi-wavelength phenomenon: it shows emis-sion components visible from the radio to GeV bands. In X-ray binaries one can well observe the evolution of a single source under changes of the accretion rate and thus study the interplay between the different emission components.I will introduce the phenomenology of X-ray bina-ries and their accretion states and present our current understanding of the interplay between the optically thin and optically thick part of the accretion flow and the jet.The recent detection of the Fermi Large Area Telescope of a variable high-energy source coinciding with the position of the x-ray binary Cygnus X-3 will be presented. Its identification with Cygnus X-3 has been secured by the detection of its orbital period in gamma rays, as well as the correlation of the LAT flux with radio emission from the relativistic jets of Cygnus X-3. This will be interpreted in the context of the accretion states of the X-ray binary.

Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

PubMed

Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

2017-09-06

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its shortcomings, and so further research is needed to identify optimal approaches for relative risk estimation within the multiple imputation framework.

What energy functions can be minimized via graph cuts?

PubMed

Kolmogorov, Vladimir; Zabih, Ramin

2004-02-01

In the last few years, several new algorithms based on graph cuts have been developed to solve energy minimization problems in computer vision. Each of these techniques constructs a graph such that the minimum cut on the graph also minimizes the energy. Yet, because these graph constructions are complex and highly specific to a particular energy function, graph cuts have seen limited application to date. In this paper, we give a characterization of the energy functions that can be minimized by graph cuts. Our results are restricted to functions of binary variables. However, our work generalizes many previous constructions and is easily applicable to vision problems that involve large numbers of labels, such as stereo, motion, image restoration, and scene reconstruction. We give a precise characterization of what energy functions can be minimized using graph cuts, among the energy functions that can be written as a sum of terms containing three or fewer binary variables. We also provide a general-purpose construction to minimize such an energy function. Finally, we give a necessary condition for any energy function of binary variables to be minimized by graph cuts. Researchers who are considering the use of graph cuts to optimize a particular energy function can use our results to determine if this is possible and then follow our construction to create the appropriate graph. A software implementation is freely available.

Testing the relativistic Doppler boost hypothesis for supermassive black hole binary candidates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charisi, Maria; Haiman, Zoltán; Schiminovich, David; D'Orazio, Daniel J.

2018-06-01

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) should be common in galactic nuclei as a result of frequent galaxy mergers. Recently, a large sample of sub-parsec SMBHB candidates was identified as bright periodically variable quasars in optical surveys. If the observed periodicity corresponds to the redshifted binary orbital period, the inferred orbital velocities are relativistic (v/c ≈ 0.1). The optical and ultraviolet (UV) luminosities are expected to arise from gas bound to the individual BHs, and would be modulated by the relativistic Doppler effect. The optical and UV light curves should vary in tandem with relative amplitudes which depend on the respective spectral slopes. We constructed a control sample of 42 quasars with aperiodic variability, to test whether this Doppler colour signature can be distinguished from intrinsic chromatic variability. We found that the Doppler signature can arise by chance in ˜20 per cent (˜37 per cent) of quasars in the nUV (fUV) band. These probabilities reflect the limited quality of the control sample and represent upper limits on how frequently quasars mimic the Doppler brightness+colour variations. We performed separate tests on the periodic quasar candidates, and found that for the majority, the Doppler boost hypothesis requires an unusually steep UV spectrum or an unexpectedly large BH mass and orbital velocity. We conclude that at most approximately one-third of these periodic candidates can harbor Doppler-modulated SMBHBs.

Interactions of X-ray Binaries with Their Surrounding Material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Servillat, Mathieu; Chaty, S.; Coleiro, A.; Tang, S.; Grindlay, J. E.; Los, E.

2013-04-01

We can observe the interactions of high mass X-ray binaries with their surrounding material in two complementary ways: variability over long time scales, and direct infrared observation of dust/gas. This gives unprecedented clues on the formation and evolution of those systems. Using Herschel infrared observations of high mass X-ray binaries and of ultra-luminous X-ray sources, we aim to detect and characterize the surrounding material. In the case of ultra-luminous X-ray sources, due to the enormous amount of energy radiated, strong interactions with their environment are expected, particularly if the emission is not beamed and if they host an intermediate mass black hole. This provides a unique test for the existence of such objects. The Digital Access to a Sky Century at Harvard (DASCH) is a project to digitize and analyze the scientific data contained in the 530 000 Harvard College Observatory plates taken between the 1880s and 1990s, which is a unique resource for studying temporal variations in the universe on 10-100 yr timescales. The Be star SAO 49275 shows significant slow variability of 1 magnitude on time scales 10-50 years. This variability seems connected to the formation and disappearance of the decretion disk of the Be star, maybe triggered by the presence of a compact object companion, possibly a white dwarf.

X-Ray and UV Orbital Phase Dependence in LMC X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolan, Joseph F.; Boyd, P. T.; Smale, A. P.

2001-01-01

The black-hole binary LMC X-3 is known to be variable on time scales of days to years. We investigated X-ray and ultraviolet variability in the system as a function of the 1.7 d binary orbit using a 6.4 day observation with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) in 1998 December. An abrupt 14 % flux decrease lasting nearly an entire orbit was followed by a return to previous flux levels. This behavior occurred twice at nearly the same binary phase, but is not present in consecutive orbits. When the X-ray flux is at lower intensity, a periodic amplitude modulation of 7 % is evident in data folded modulo the orbital period. The higher intensity data show weaker correlation with phase. This is the first report of X-ray variability at the orbital period of LMC X-3. Archival RXTE observations of LMC X-3 during a high flux state in 1996 December show similar phase dependence. An ultraviolet light curve obtained with the High Speed Photometer (HSP) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) shows a phase dependent variability consistent with that observed in the visible, ascribed to the ellipsoidal variation of the visible star. The X-ray spectrum of LMC X-3 is acceptably represented by a phenomenological disk black-body plus a power law. Changes in the spectrum of LMX X-3 during our observations are compatible with earlier observations during which variations in the 2-10 keV flux are closely correlated with the disk geometry spectral model parameter.

The Time-domain Spectroscopic Survey: Target Selection for Repeat Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Green, Paul J.; Anderson, Scott F.; Eracleous, Michael; Ruan, John J.; Runnoe, Jessie; Nielsen Brandt, William; Badenes, Carles; Greene, Jenny; Morganson, Eric; Schmidt, Sarah J.; Schwope, Axel; Shen, Yue; Amaro, Rachael; Lebleu, Amy; Filiz Ak, Nurten; Grier, Catherine J.; Hoover, Daniel; McGraw, Sean M.; Dawson, Kyle; Hall, Patrick B.; Hawley, Suzanne L.; Mariappan, Vivek; Myers, Adam D.; Pâris, Isabelle; Schneider, Donald P.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Bershady, Matthew A.; Blanton, Michael R.; Seo, Hee-Jong; Tinker, Jeremy; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; Chambers, Kenneth; Kaiser, Nick; Kudritzki, R.-P.; Magnier, Eugene; Metcalfe, Nigel; Waters, Chris Z.

2018-01-01

As astronomers increasingly exploit the information available in the time domain, spectroscopic variability in particular opens broad new channels of investigation. Here we describe the selection algorithms for all targets intended for repeat spectroscopy in the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS), part of the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey within the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-IV. Also discussed are the scientific rationale and technical constraints leading to these target selections. The TDSS includes a large “repeat quasar spectroscopy” (RQS) program delivering ∼13,000 repeat spectra of confirmed SDSS quasars, and several smaller “few-epoch spectroscopy” (FES) programs targeting specific classes of quasars as well as stars. The RQS program aims to provide a large and diverse quasar data set for studying variations in quasar spectra on timescales of years, a comparison sample for the FES quasar programs, and an opportunity for discovering rare, serendipitous events. The FES programs cover a wide variety of phenomena in both quasars and stars. Quasar FES programs target broad absorption line quasars, high signal-to-noise ratio normal broad line quasars, quasars with double-peaked or very asymmetric broad emission line profiles, binary supermassive black hole candidates, and the most photometrically variable quasars. Strongly variable stars are also targeted for repeat spectroscopy, encompassing many types of eclipsing binary systems, and classical pulsators like RR Lyrae. Other stellar FES programs allow spectroscopic variability studies of active ultracool dwarf stars, dwarf carbon stars, and white dwarf/M dwarf spectroscopic binaries. We present example TDSS spectra and describe anticipated sample sizes and results.

Predictors of nonresponse in a questionnaire-based outcome study of vocational rehabilitation patients.

PubMed

Burrus, Cyrille; Ballabeni, Pierluigi; Deriaz, Olivier; Gobelet, Charles; Luthi, François

2009-09-01

To identify predictors of nonresponse to a self-report study of patients with orthopedic trauma hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation between November 15, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The role of biopsychosocial complexity, assessed using the INTERMED, was of particular interest. Cohort study. Questionnaires with quality of life, sociodemographic, and job-related questions were given to patients at hospitalization and 1 year after discharge. Sociodemographic data, biopsychosocial complexity, and presence of comorbidity were available at hospitalization (baseline) for all eligible patients. Logistic regression models were used to test a number of baseline variables as potential predictors of nonresponse to the questionnaires at each of the 2 time points. Rehabilitation clinic. Patients (N=990) hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation over a period of 2 years. Not applicable. Nonresponse to the questionnaires was the binary dependent variable. Patients with high biopsychosocial complexity, foreign native language, or low educational level were less likely to respond at both time points. Younger patients were less likely to respond at 1 year. Those living in a stable partnership were less likely than singles to respond at hospitalization. Sex, psychiatric, and somatic comorbidity and alcoholism were never associated with nonresponse. We stress the importance of assessing biopsychosocial complexity to predict nonresponse. Furthermore, the factors we found to be predictive of nonresponse are also known to influence treatment outcome and vocational rehabilitation. Therefore, it is important to increase the response rate of the groups of concern in order to reduce selection bias in epidemiologic investigations.

The MAVERIC Survey: A Red Straggler Binary with an Invisible Companion in the Galactic Globular Cluster M10

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shishkovsky, Laura; Strader, Jay; Chomiuk, Laura; Bahramian, Arash; Tremou, Evangelia; Li, Kwan-Lok; Salinas, Ricardo; Tudor, Vlad; Miller-Jones, James C. A.; Maccarone, Thomas J.; Heinke, Craig O.; Sivakoff, Gregory R.

2018-03-01

We present the discovery and characterization of a radio-bright binary in the Galactic globular cluster M10. First identified in deep radio continuum data from the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array, M10-VLA1 has a flux density of 27 ± 4 μJy at 7.4 GHz and a flat-to-inverted radio spectrum. Chandra imaging shows an X-ray source with L X ≈ 1031 erg s‑1 matching the location of the radio source. This places M10-VLA1 within the scatter of the radio-X-ray luminosity correlation for quiescent stellar-mass black holes, and a black hole X-ray binary is a viable explanation for this system. The radio and X-ray properties of the source disfavor, but do not rule out, identification as an accreting neutron star or white dwarf system. Optical imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope and spectroscopy from the SOAR telescope show that the system has an orbital period of 3.339 days and an unusual “red straggler” component: an evolved star found redward of the M10 red giant branch. These data also show UV/optical variability and double-peaked Hα emission characteristic of an accretion disk. However, SOAR spectroscopic monitoring reveals that the velocity semi-amplitude of the red straggler is low. We conclude that M10-VLA1 is most likely either a quiescent black hole X-ray binary with a rather face-on (i < 4°) orientation or an unusual flaring RS Canum Venaticorum variable-type active binary, and discuss future observations that could distinguish between these possibilities.

HD 66051: the first eclipsing binary hosting an early-type magnetic star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochukhov, O.; Johnston, C.; Alecian, E.; Wade, G. A.

2018-05-01

Early-type magnetic stars are rarely found in close binary systems. No such objects were known in eclipsing binaries prior to this study. Here we investigated the eclipsing, spectroscopic double-lined binary HD 66051, which exhibits out-of-eclipse photometric variations suggestive of surface brightness inhomogeneities typical of early-type magnetic stars. Using a new set of high-resolution spectropolarimetric observations, we discovered a weak magnetic field on the primary and found intrinsic, element-dependent variability in its spectral lines. The magnetic field structure of the primary is dominated by a nearly axisymmetric dipolar component with a polar field strength Bd ≈ 600 G and an inclination with respect to the rotation axis of βd = 13°. A weaker quadrupolar component is also likely to be present. We combined the radial velocity measurements derived from our spectra with archival optical photometry to determine fundamental masses (3.16 and 1.75 M⊙) and radii (2.78 and 1.39 R⊙) with a 1-3% precision. We also obtained a refined estimate of the effective temperatures (13000 and 9000 K) and studied chemical abundances for both components with the help of disentangled spectra. We demonstrate that the primary component of HD 66051 is a typical late-B magnetic chemically peculiar star with a non-uniform surface chemical abundance distribution. It is not an HgMn-type star as suggested by recent studies. The secondary is a metallic-line star showing neither a strong, global magnetic field nor intrinsic spectral variability. Fundamental parameters provided by our work for this interesting system open unique possibilities for probing interior structure, studying atomic diffusion, and constraining binary star evolution.

Radio-loudness in black hole transients: evidence for an inclination effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motta, S. E.; Casella, P.; Fender, R.

2018-06-01

Accreting stellar-mass black holes appear to populate two branches in a radio:X-ray luminosity plane. We have investigated the X-ray variability properties of a large number of black hole low-mass X-ray binaries, with the aim of unveiling the physical reasons underlying the radio-loud/radio-quiet nature of these sources, in the context of the known accretion-ejection connection. A reconsideration of the available radio and X-ray data from a sample of black hole X-ray binaries confirms that being radio-quiet is the more normal mode of behaviour for black hole binaries. In the light of this we chose to test, once more, the hypothesis that radio loudness could be a consequence of the inclination of the X-ray binary. We compared the slope of the `hard-line' (an approximately linear correlation between X-ray count rate and rms variability, visible in the hard states of active black holes), the orbital inclination, and the radio-nature of the sources of our sample. We found that high-inclination objects show steeper hard-lines than low-inclination objects, and tend to display a radio-quiet nature (with the only exception of V404 Cyg), as opposed to low-inclination objects, which appear to be radio-loud(er). While in need of further confirmation, our results suggest that - contrary to what has been believed for years - the radio-loud/quiet nature of black-hole low mass X-ray binaries might be an inclination effect, rather than an intrinsic source property. This would solve an important issue in the context of the inflow-outflow connection, thus providing significant constraints to the models for the launch of hard-state compact jets.

X-ray Binaries in the Central Region of M31

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trudolyubov, Sergey P.; Priedhorsky, W. C.; Cordova, F. A.

2006-09-01

We present the results of the systematic survey of X-ray sources in the central region of M31 using the data of XMM-Newton observations. The spectral properties and variability of 124 bright X-ray sources were studied in detail. We found that more than 80% of sources observed in two or more observations show significant variability on the time scales of days to years. At least 50% of the sources in our sample are spectrally variable. The fraction of variable sources in our survey is much higher than previously reported from Chandra survey of M31, and is remarkably close to the fraction of variable sources found in M31 globular cluster X-ray source population. We present spectral distribution of M31 X-ray sources, based on the spectral fitting with a power law model. The distribution of spectral photon index has two main peaks at 1.8 and 2.3, and shows clear evolution with source luminosity. Based on the similarity of the properties of M31 X-ray sources and their Galactic counterparts, we expect most of X-ray sources in our sample to be accreting binary systems with neutron star and black hole primaries. Combining the results of X-ray analysis (X-ray spectra, hardness-luminosity diagrams and variability) with available data at other wavelengths, we explore the possibility of distinguishing between bright neutron star and black hole binary systems, and identify 7% and 25% of sources in our sample as a probable black hole and neutron star candidates. Finally, we compare the M31 X-ray source population to the source populations of normal galaxies of different morphological type. Support for this work was provided through NASA Grant NAG5-12390. Part of this work was done during a summer workshop ``Revealing Black Holes'' at the Aspen Center for Physics, S. T. is grateful to the Center for their hospitality.

Advances in Telescope and Detector Technologies - Impacts on the Study and Understanding of Binary Star and Exoplanet Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guinan, Edward F.; Engle, Scott; Devinney, Edward J.

2012-04-01

Current and planned telescope systems (both on the ground and in space) as well as new technologies will be discussed with emphasis on their impact on the studies of binary star and exoplanet systems. Although no telescopes or space missions are primarily designed to study binary stars (what a pity!), several are available (or will be shortly) to study exoplanet systems. Nonetheless those telescopes and instruments can also be powerful tools for studying binary and variable stars. For example, early microlensing missions (mid-1990s) such as EROS, MACHO and OGLE were initially designed for probing dark matter in the halos of galaxies but, serendipitously, these programs turned out to be a bonanza for the studies of eclipsing binaries and variable stars in the Magellanic Clouds and in the Galactic Bulge. A more recent example of this kind of serendipity is the Kepler Mission. Although Kepler was designed to discover exoplanet transits (and so far has been very successful, returning many planetary candidates), Kepler is turning out to be a ``stealth'' stellar astrophysics mission returning fundamentally important and new information on eclipsing binaries, variable stars and, in particular, providing a treasure trove of data of all types of pulsating stars suitable for detailed Asteroseismology studies. With this in mind, current and planned telescopes and networks, new instruments and techniques (including interferometers) are discussed that can play important roles in our understanding of both binary star and exoplanet systems. Recent advances in detectors (e.g. laser frequency comb spectrographs), telescope networks (both small and large - e.g. Super-WASP, HAT-net, RoboNet, Las Combres Observatory Global Telescope (LCOGT) Network), wide field (panoramic) telescope systems (e.g. Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and Pan-Starrs), huge telescopes (e.g. the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT), the Overwhelming Large Telescope (OWL) and the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT)), and space missions, such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the possible NASA Explorer Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS - recently approved for further study) and Gaia (due for launch during 2013) will all be discussed. Also highlighted are advances in interferometers (both on the ground and from space) and imaging now possible at sub-millimeter wavelengths from the Extremely Long Array (ELVA) and Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). High precision Doppler spectroscopy, for example with HARPS, HIRES and more recently the Carnegie Planet Finder Spectrograph, are currently returning RVs typically better than ~2-m/s for some brighter exoplanet systems. But soon it should be possible to measure Doppler shifts as small as ~10-cm/s - sufficiently sensitive for detecting Earth-size planets. Also briefly discussed is the impact these instruments will have on the study of eclipsing binaries, along with future possibilities of utilizing methods from the emerging field of Astroinformatics, including: the Virtual Observatory (VO) and the possibilities of analyzing these huge datasets using Neural Network (NN) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies.

Magnetic Fields in Interacting Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, G.; Ferrario, L.; Tout, C. A.; Wickramasinghe, D. T.

2018-01-01

Wickramasinghe et al. (2014) and Briggs et al. (2015) have proposed that the strong magnetic fields observed in some single white dwarfs (MWDs) are formed by an α—Ω dynamo driven by differential rotation when two stars, the more massive one with a degenerate core, merge during common envelope (CE) evolution (Ferrario et al., 2015b). We synthesise a population of binaries to investigate if fields in the magnetic cataclysmic variables (MCVs) may also originate during stellar interaction in the CE phase.

Interpreting the concordance statistic of a logistic regression model: relation to the variance and odds ratio of a continuous explanatory variable.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2012-06-20

When outcomes are binary, the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve) is a standard measure of the predictive accuracy of a logistic regression model. An analytical expression was derived under the assumption that a continuous explanatory variable follows a normal distribution in those with and without the condition. We then conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine whether the expressions derived under the assumption of binormality allowed for accurate prediction of the empirical c-statistic when the explanatory variable followed a normal distribution in the combined sample of those with and without the condition. We also examine the accuracy of the predicted c-statistic when the explanatory variable followed a gamma, log-normal or uniform distribution in combined sample of those with and without the condition. Under the assumption of binormality with equality of variances, the c-statistic follows a standard normal cumulative distribution function with dependence on the product of the standard deviation of the normal components (reflecting more heterogeneity) and the log-odds ratio (reflecting larger effects). Under the assumption of binormality with unequal variances, the c-statistic follows a standard normal cumulative distribution function with dependence on the standardized difference of the explanatory variable in those with and without the condition. In our Monte Carlo simulations, we found that these expressions allowed for reasonably accurate prediction of the empirical c-statistic when the distribution of the explanatory variable was normal, gamma, log-normal, and uniform in the entire sample of those with and without the condition. The discriminative ability of a continuous explanatory variable cannot be judged by its odds ratio alone, but always needs to be considered in relation to the heterogeneity of the population.

Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging.

PubMed

Chen, Jin-Hua; Chen, Chun-Shu; Huang, Meng-Fan; Lin, Hung-Chih

2016-10-01

In statistical applications, logistic regression is a popular method for analyzing binary data accompanied by explanatory variables. But when one of the two outcomes is rare, the estimation of model parameters has been shown to be severely biased and hence estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on a logistic regression model would be inaccurate. In this article, we focus on estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on logistic regression models. Instead of selecting a best model, we propose a local model averaging procedure based on a data perturbation technique applied to different information criteria to obtain different probability estimates of rare events occurring. Then an approximately unbiased estimator of Kullback-Leibler loss is used to choose the best one among them. We design complete simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach. For illustration, a necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) data set is analyzed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Accounting for informatively missing data in logistic regression by means of reassessment sampling.

PubMed

Lin, Ji; Lyles, Robert H

2015-05-20

We explore the 'reassessment' design in a logistic regression setting, where a second wave of sampling is applied to recover a portion of the missing data on a binary exposure and/or outcome variable. We construct a joint likelihood function based on the original model of interest and a model for the missing data mechanism, with emphasis on non-ignorable missingness. The estimation is carried out by numerical maximization of the joint likelihood function with close approximation of the accompanying Hessian matrix, using sharable programs that take advantage of general optimization routines in standard software. We show how likelihood ratio tests can be used for model selection and how they facilitate direct hypothesis testing for whether missingness is at random. Examples and simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding the gap between cognitive abilities and daily living skills in adolescents with autism spectrum disorders with average intelligence.

PubMed

Duncan, Amie W; Bishop, Somer L

2015-01-01

Daily living skills standard scores on the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-2nd edition were examined in 417 adolescents from the Simons Simplex Collection. All participants had at least average intelligence and a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regressions were used to examine the prevalence and predictors of a "daily living skills deficit," defined as below average daily living skills in the context of average intelligence quotient. Approximately half of the adolescents were identified as having a daily living skills deficit. Autism symptomatology, intelligence quotient, maternal education, age, and sex accounted for only 10% of the variance in predicting a daily living skills deficit. Identifying factors associated with better or worse daily living skills may help shed light on the variability in adult outcome in individuals with autism spectrum disorder with average intelligence. © The Author(s) 2013.

Line profile variability in the massive binary HD 152219

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sana, H.; Gosset, E.

2009-07-01

HD 152219 is a massive binary system with O9.5 III and B1-2 III/V components and a short orbital period of 4.2 d. In a previous work, we showed that the primary star (M_{prim}˜21 M_⊙) was presenting clear line profile variabilities (LPVs) that might be caused by nonradial pulsations (NRPs). In the present work, we report on an intensive spectroscopic monitoring, that aimed at unveiling the nature of the detected LPVs. Based on this new data set, we discard the NRPs and point out the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect as % being the cause of the observed LPVs. The upper limit derived on the amplitude of undetected NRPs, if any, is set at a couple of part per thousands of the continuum level.

PG0027 + 260 - An example of a class of cataclysmic binaries with mysterious, but consistent, behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thorstensen, John R.; Ringwald, F. A.; Wade, Richard A.; Schmidt, Gary D.; Norsworthy, Jane E.

1991-01-01

This paper reports extensive optical observations on the PG0027 + 260 binary, carried out on August 1984 with the 1.3 McGraw-Hill telescope and Mark II spectrometer at Michigan-Dartmouth-MIT Observatory on Kitt Peak. It is shown that this object is an eclipsing novalike variable with an orbital period of 3.51 hr. The PG0027 + 260 displays several unexplained phenomena which are remarkably similar to those of the SW Sex, DW UMa, and V1315 Aql, which are eclipsing novalike stars with periods between 3 and 4 hrs. The eclipse of the PG0027 + 260 is modeled, and it is shown that, while the mean eclipse light curve is easy to match, there is no simple explanation for the variable depth.

Multifrequency observations of symbiotic stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenyon, Scott J.

1988-01-01

The discovery of symbiotic stars is described, and the results of multifrequency observations made during the past two decades are presented. Observational data identify symbiotic stars as long-period binary systems that can be divided into two basic physical classes: detached symbiotics containing a red giant (or a Mira variable), and semidetached symbiotics containing a lobe-filling red giant and a solar-type main sequence star. Three components are typically observed: (1) the cool giant component with an effective temperature of 2500-4000 K, which can be divided by the IR spectral classification into normal M giants (S-types) and heavily reddened Mira variables (D-types); (2) the hot companion displaying a bright blue continuum at UV wavelengths, which is sometimes also an X-ray source; and (3) a gaseous nebula enveloping the binary.

R package to estimate intracluster correlation coefficient with confidence interval for binary data.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Hrishikesh; Hossain, Akhtar

2018-03-01

The Intracluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is a major parameter of interest in cluster randomized trials that measures the degree to which responses within the same cluster are correlated. There are several types of ICC estimators and its confidence intervals (CI) suggested in the literature for binary data. Studies have compared relative weaknesses and advantages of ICC estimators as well as its CI for binary data and suggested situations where one is advantageous in practical research. The commonly used statistical computing systems currently facilitate estimation of only a very few variants of ICC and its CI. To address the limitations of current statistical packages, we developed an R package, ICCbin, to facilitate estimating ICC and its CI for binary responses using different methods. The ICCbin package is designed to provide estimates of ICC in 16 different ways including analysis of variance methods, moments based estimation, direct probabilistic methods, correlation based estimation, and resampling method. CI of ICC is estimated using 5 different methods. It also generates cluster binary data using exchangeable correlation structure. ICCbin package provides two functions for users. The function rcbin() generates cluster binary data and the function iccbin() estimates ICC and it's CI. The users can choose appropriate ICC and its CI estimate from the wide selection of estimates from the outputs. The R package ICCbin presents very flexible and easy to use ways to generate cluster binary data and to estimate ICC and it's CI for binary response using different methods. The package ICCbin is freely available for use with R from the CRAN repository (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ICCbin). We believe that this package can be a very useful tool for researchers to design cluster randomized trials with binary outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Light curve variations of the eclipsing binary V367 Cygni

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akan, M. C.

1987-07-01

The long-period eclipsing binary star V367 Cygni has been observed photoelectrically in two colours, B and V, in 1984, 1985, and 1986. These new light curves of the system have been discussed and compared for the light-variability with the earlier ones presented by Heiser (1962). Using some of the previously published photoelectric light curves and the present ones, several primary minima times have been derived to calculate the light elements. Any attempt to obtain a photometric solution of the binary is complicated by the peculiar nature of the light curve caused by the presence of the circumstellar matter in the system. Despite this difficulty, however, some approaches are being carried out to solve the light curves which are briefly discussed.

Modulated high-energy gamma-ray emission from the microquasar Cygnus X-3.

PubMed

Abdo, A A; Ackermann, M; Ajello, M; Axelsson, M; Baldini, L; Ballet, J; Barbiellini, G; Bastieri, D; Baughman, B M; Bechtol, K; Bellazzini, R; Berenji, B; Blandford, R D; Bloom, E D; Bonamente, E; Borgland, A W; Brez, A; Brigida, M; Bruel, P; Burnett, T H; Buson, S; Caliandro, G A; Cameron, R A; Caraveo, P A; Casandjian, J M; Cecchi, C; Celik, O; Chaty, S; Cheung, C C; Chiang, J; Ciprini, S; Claus, R; Cohen-Tanugi, J; Cominsky, L R; Conrad, J; Corbel, S; Corbet, R; Dermer, C D; de Palma, F; Digel, S W; do Couto e Silva, E; Drell, P S; Dubois, R; Dubus, G; Dumora, D; Farnier, C; Favuzzi, C; Fegan, S J; Focke, W B; Fortin, P; Frailis, M; Fusco, P; Gargano, F; Gehrels, N; Germani, S; Giavitto, G; Giebels, B; Giglietto, N; Giordano, F; Glanzman, T; Godfrey, G; Grenier, I A; Grondin, M-H; Grove, J E; Guillemot, L; Guiriec, S; Hanabata, Y; Harding, A K; Hayashida, M; Hays, E; Hill, A B; Hjalmarsdotter, L; Horan, D; Hughes, R E; Jackson, M S; Jóhannesson, G; Johnson, A S; Johnson, T J; Johnson, W N; Kamae, T; Katagiri, H; Kawai, N; Kerr, M; Knödlseder, J; Kocian, M L; Koerding, E; Kuss, M; Lande, J; Latronico, L; Lemoine-Goumard, M; Longo, F; Loparco, F; Lott, B; Lovellette, M N; Lubrano, P; Madejski, G M; Makeev, A; Marchand, L; Marelli, M; Max-Moerbeck, W; Mazziotta, M N; McColl, N; McEnery, J E; Meurer, C; Michelson, P F; Migliari, S; Mitthumsiri, W; Mizuno, T; Monte, C; Monzani, M E; Morselli, A; Moskalenko, I V; Murgia, S; Nolan, P L; Norris, J P; Nuss, E; Ohsugi, T; Omodei, N; Ong, R A; Ormes, J F; Paneque, D; Parent, D; Pelassa, V; Pepe, M; Pesce-Rollins, M; Piron, F; Pooley, G; Porter, T A; Pottschmidt, K; Rainò, S; Rando, R; Ray, P S; Razzano, M; Rea, N; Readhead, A; Reimer, A; Reimer, O; Richards, J L; Rochester, L S; Rodriguez, J; Rodriguez, A Y; Romani, R W; Ryde, F; Sadrozinski, H F-W; Sander, A; Saz Parkinson, P M; Sgrò, C; Siskind, E J; Smith, D A; Smith, P D; Spinelli, P; Starck, J-L; Stevenson, M; Strickman, M S; Suson, D J; Takahashi, H; Tanaka, T; Thayer, J B; Thompson, D J; Tibaldo, L; Tomsick, J A; Torres, D F; Tosti, G; Tramacere, A; Uchiyama, Y; Usher, T L; Vasileiou, V; Vilchez, N; Vitale, V; Waite, A P; Wang, P; Wilms, J; Winer, B L; Wood, K S; Ylinen, T; Ziegler, M

2009-12-11

Microquasars are accreting black holes or neutron stars in binary systems with associated relativistic jets. Despite their frequent outburst activity, they have never been unambiguously detected emitting high-energy gamma rays. The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has detected a variable high-energy source coinciding with the position of the x-ray binary and microquasar Cygnus X-3. Its identification with Cygnus X-3 is secured by the detection of its orbital period in gamma rays, as well as the correlation of the LAT flux with radio emission from the relativistic jets of Cygnus X-3. The gamma-ray emission probably originates from within the binary system, opening new areas in which to study the formation of relativistic jets.

Correlated Temporal and Spectral Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swank, Jean H.

2007-01-01

The variability of neutron star and black hole X-ray sources has several dimensions, because of the roles played by different important time-scales. The variations on time scales of hours, weeks, and months, ranging from 50% to orders of magnitude, arise out of changes in the flow in the disk. The most important driving forces for those changes are probably various possible instabilities in the disk, though there may be effects with other dominant causes. The changes in the rate of flow appear to be associated with changes in the flow's configuration, as the accreting material approaches the compact object, for there are generally correlated changes in both the Xray spectra and the character of the faster temporal variability. There has been a lot of progress in tracking these correlations, both for Z and Atoll neutron star low-mass X-ray binaries, and for black hole binaries. I will discuss these correlations and review briefly what they tell us about the physical states of the systems.

X-Ray source populations in old open clusters: Collinder 261

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vats, Smriti; van den Berg, Maureen; Wijnands, Rudy

2014-09-01

We are carrying out an X-ray survey of old open clusters with the Chandra X-ray Observatory. Single old stars, being slow rotators, are very faint in X-rays (L_X < 1×10^27 erg/s). Hence, X-rays produced by mass transfer in cataclysmic variables (CVs) or by rapid rotation of the stars in tidally locked, detached binaries (active binaries; ABs) can be detected, without contamination from single stars. By comparing the properties of various types of interacting binaries in different environments (the Galactic field, old open clusters, globular clusters), we aim to study binary evolution and how it may be affected by dynamical encounters with other cluster stars. Stellar clusters are good targets to study binaries, as age, distance, chemical composition, are well constrained. Collinder (Cr) 261 is an old open cluster (age ~ 7 Gyr), with one of the richest populations inferred of close binaries and blue stragglers of all open clusters and is therefore an obvious target to study the products of close encounters in open clusters. We will present the first results of this study, detailing the low-luminosity X-ray population of Cr 261, in conjunction with other open clusters in our survey (NGC 188, Berkeley 17, NGC 6253, M67, NGC 6791) and in comparison with populations in globular clusters.

Performance and separation occurrence of binary probit regression estimator using maximum likelihood method and Firths approach under different sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusiana, Evellin Dewi

2017-12-01

The parameters of binary probit regression model are commonly estimated by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. However, MLE method has limitation if the binary data contains separation. Separation is the condition where there are one or several independent variables that exactly grouped the categories in binary response. It will result the estimators of MLE method become non-convergent, so that they cannot be used in modeling. One of the effort to resolve the separation is using Firths approach instead. This research has two aims. First, to identify the chance of separation occurrence in binary probit regression model between MLE method and Firths approach. Second, to compare the performance of binary probit regression model estimator that obtained by MLE method and Firths approach using RMSE criteria. Those are performed using simulation method and under different sample size. The results showed that the chance of separation occurrence in MLE method for small sample size is higher than Firths approach. On the other hand, for larger sample size, the probability decreased and relatively identic between MLE method and Firths approach. Meanwhile, Firths estimators have smaller RMSE than MLEs especially for smaller sample sizes. But for larger sample sizes, the RMSEs are not much different. It means that Firths estimators outperformed MLE estimator.

Tidal Synchronization and Differential Rotation of Kepler Eclipsing Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lurie, John C.; Vyhmeister, Karl; Hawley, Suzanne L.; Adilia, Jamel; Chen, Andrea; Davenport, James R. A.; Jurić, Mario; Puig-Holzman, Michael; Weisenburger, Kolby L.

2017-12-01

Few observational constraints exist for the tidal synchronization rate of late-type stars, despite its fundamental role in binary evolution. We visually inspected the light curves of 2278 eclipsing binaries (EBs) from the Kepler Eclipsing Binary Catalog to identify those with starspot modulations, as well as other types of out-of-eclipse variability. We report rotation periods for 816 EBs with starspot modulations, and find that 79% of EBs with orbital periods of less than 10 days are synchronized. However, a population of short-period EBs exists, with rotation periods typically 13% slower than synchronous, which we attribute to the differential rotation of high-latitude starspots. At 10 days, there is a transition from predominantly circular, synchronized EBs to predominantly eccentric, pseudosynchronized EBs. This transition period is in good agreement with the predicted and observed circularization period for Milky Way field binaries. At orbital periods greater than about 30 days, the amount of tidal synchronization decreases. We also report 12 previously unidentified candidate δ Scuti and γ Doradus pulsators, as well as a candidate RS CVn system with an evolved primary that exhibits starspot occultations. For short-period contact binaries, we observe a period-color relation and compare it to previous studies. As a whole, these results represent the largest homogeneous study of tidal synchronization of late-type stars.

Variable-energy drift-tube linear accelerator

DOEpatents

Swenson, Donald A.; Boyd, Jr., Thomas J.; Potter, James M.; Stovall, James E.

1984-01-01

A linear accelerator system includes a plurality of post-coupled drift-tubes wherein each post coupler is bistably positionable to either of two positions which result in different field distributions. With binary control over a plurality of post couplers, a significant accumlative effect in the resulting field distribution is achieved yielding a variable-energy drift-tube linear accelerator.

Variable-energy drift-tube linear accelerator

DOEpatents

Swenson, D.A.; Boyd, T.J. Jr.; Potter, J.M.; Stovall, J.E.

A linear accelerator system includes a plurality of post-coupled drift-tubes wherein each post coupler is bistably positionable to either of two positions which result in different field distributions. With binary control over a plurality of post couplers, a significant accumlative effect in the resulting field distribution is achieved yielding a variable-energy drift-tube linear accelerator.

X-Ray Variability and the Secondary Star

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corcoran, M. F.; Ishibashi, K.

2012-01-01

We discuss the history of X-ray observations of the 11 Car system, concentrating on the periodic variability discovered in the 1990s. We discuss the interpretation of these variations, concentrating on a model of the system as a "collidingwind" binary. This interpretation allows the physical and orbital parameters of eta Car and its companion star to be constrained.

Apolipoprotein B-associated cholesterol is a determinant of treatment outcome in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection receiving anti-viral agents interferon-alpha and ribavirin.

PubMed

Sheridan, D A; Price, D A; Schmid, M L; Toms, G L; Donaldson, P; Neely, D; Bassendine, M F

2009-06-15

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-opts very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) pathways for replication, secretion and entry into hepatocytes and associates with apolipoprotein B (apoB) in plasma. Each VLDL contains apoB-100 and variable amounts of apolipoproteins E and C, cholesterol and triglycerides. To determine whether baseline lipid levels predicted treatment outcome. Retrospective analysis was performed of 250 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who had received anti-viral agents interferon-alpha and ribavirin; 165 had a sustained virological response (SVR). Pre- and post-treatment nonfasting lipid profiles were measured and non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL) cholesterol (i.e. apoB-associated) was calculated. Binary logistic regression analysis assessed factors independently associated with treatment outcome. There was an independent association between higher apoB-associated cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and increased odds of SVR (odds ratio 2.09, P = 0.042). In multivariate analysis, non-HDL-C was significantly lower in HCV genotype 3 (g3) than genotype 1 (P = 0.007); this was reversible upon eradication of HCVg3 (pre-treatment non-HDL-C = 2.8 mmol/L, SVR = 3.6 mmol/L, P < 0.001). Higher apoB-associated cholesterol is positively associated with treatment outcome in CHC patients receiving anti-viral therapy, possibly due to competition between apoB-containing lipoproteins and infectious low-density HCV lipo-viral particles for hepatocyte entry via shared lipoprotein receptors.

Why Do Some Water Utilities Recycle More than Others? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis in New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Kunz, Nadja C; Fischer, Manuel; Ingold, Karin; Hering, Janet G

2015-07-21

Although the recycling of municipal wastewater can play an important role in water supply security and ecosystem protection, the percentage of wastewater recycled is generally low and strikingly variable. Previous research has employed detailed case studies to examine the factors that contribute to recycling success but usually lacks a comparative perspective across cases. In this study, 25 water utilities in New South Wales, Australia, were compared using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). This research method applies binary logic and set theory to identify the minimal combinations of conditions that are necessary and/or sufficient for an outcome to occur within the set of cases analyzed. The influence of six factors (rainfall, population density, coastal or inland location, proximity to users; cost recovery and revenue for water supply services) was examined for two outcomes, agricultural use and "heavy" (i.e., commercial/municipal/industrial) use. Each outcome was explained by two different pathways, illustrating that different combinations of conditions are associated with the same outcome. Generally, while economic factors are crucial for heavy use, factors relating to water stress and geographical proximity matter most for agricultural reuse. These results suggest that policies to promote wastewater reuse may be most effective if they target uses that are most feasible for utilities and correspond to the local context. This work also makes a methodological contribution through illustrating the potential utility of fsQCA for understanding the complex drivers of performance in water recycling.

Assessing the performance of the generalized propensity score for estimating the effect of quantitative or continuous exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2018-01-01

Propensity score methods are frequently used to estimate the effects of interventions using observational data. The propensity score was originally developed for use with binary exposures. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score for use with quantitative or continuous exposures (e.g. pack-years of cigarettes smoked, dose of medication, or years of education). We describe how the GPS can be used to estimate the effect of continuous exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. To do so we modified the concept of the dose-response function for use with time-to-event outcomes. We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of different methods of using the GPS to estimate the effect of quantitative exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. We examined covariate adjustment using the GPS and weighting using weights based on the inverse of the GPS. The use of methods based on the GPS was compared with the use of conventional G-computation and weighted G-computation. Conventional G-computation resulted in estimates of the dose-response function that displayed the lowest bias and the lowest variability. Amongst the two GPS-based methods, covariate adjustment using the GPS tended to have the better performance. We illustrate the application of these methods by estimating the effect of average neighbourhood income on the probability of survival following hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction.

Long-term eclipse timing of white dwarf binaries: an observational hint of a magnetic mechanism at work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bours, M. C. P.; Marsh, T. R.; Parsons, S. G.; Dhillon, V. S.; Ashley, R. P.; Bento, J. P.; Breedt, E.; Butterley, T.; Caceres, C.; Chote, P.; Copperwheat, C. M.; Hardy, L. K.; Hermes, J. J.; Irawati, P.; Kerry, P.; Kilkenny, D.; Littlefair, S. P.; McAllister, M. J.; Rattanasoon, S.; Sahman, D. I.; Vučković, M.; Wilson, R. W.

2016-08-01

We present a long-term programme for timing the eclipses of white dwarfs in close binaries to measure apparent and/or real variations in their orbital periods. Our programme includes 67 close binaries, both detached and semi-detached and with M-dwarfs, K-dwarfs, brown dwarfs or white dwarfs secondaries. In total, we have observed more than 650 white dwarf eclipses. We use this sample to search for orbital period variations and aim to identify the underlying cause of these variations. We find that the probability of observing orbital period variations increases significantly with the observational baseline. In particular, all binaries with baselines exceeding 10 yr, with secondaries of spectral type K2 - M5.5, show variations in the eclipse arrival times that in most cases amount to several minutes. In addition, among those with baselines shorter than 10 yr, binaries with late spectral type (>M6), brown dwarf or white dwarf secondaries appear to show no orbital period variations. This is in agreement with the so-called Applegate mechanism, which proposes that magnetic cycles in the secondary stars can drive variability in the binary orbits. We also present new eclipse times of NN Ser, which are still compatible with the previously published circumbinary planetary system model, although only with the addition of a quadratic term to the ephemeris. Finally, we conclude that we are limited by the relatively short observational baseline for many of the binaries in the eclipse timing programme, and therefore cannot yet draw robust conclusions about the cause of orbital period variations in evolved, white dwarf binaries.

Power analysis on the time effect for the longitudinal Rasch model.

PubMed

Feddag, M L; Blanchin, M; Hardouin, J B; Sebille, V

2014-01-01

Statistics literature in the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences typically stress the importance of power analysis. Patient Reported Outcomes (PRO) such as quality of life and other perceived health measures (pain, fatigue, stress,...) are increasingly used as important health outcomes in clinical trials or in epidemiological studies. They cannot be directly observed nor measured as other clinical or biological data and they are often collected through questionnaires with binary or polytomous items. The Rasch model is the well known model in the item response theory (IRT) for binary data. The article proposes an approach to evaluate the statistical power of the time effect for the longitudinal Rasch model with two time points. The performance of this method is compared to the one obtained by simulation study. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated on one subscale of the SF-36 questionnaire.

Long-term optical and X-ray variability of the Be/X-ray binary H 1145-619: Discovery of an ongoing retrograde density wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso-Garzón, J.; Fabregat, J.; Reig, P.; Kajava, J. J. E.; Sánchez-Fernández, C.; Townsend, L. J.; Mas-Hesse, J. M.; Crawford, S. M.; Kretschmar, P.; Coe, M. J.

2017-11-01

Context. Multiwavelength monitoring of Be/X-ray binaries is crucial to understand the mechanisms producing their outbursts. H 1145-619 is one of these systems, which has recently displayed X-ray activity. Aims: We investigate the correlation between the optical emission and X-ray activity to predict the occurrence of new X-ray outbursts from the inferred state of the circumstellar disc. Methods: We have performed a multiwavelength study of H 1145-619 from 1973 to 2017 and present here a global analysis of its variability over the last 40 yr. We used optical spectra from the SAAO, SMARTS, and SALT telescopes and optical photometry from the Optical Monitoring Camera (OMC) onboard INTEGRAL and from the All Sky Automated Survey (ASAS). We also used X-ray observations from INTEGRAL/JEM-X, and IBIS to generate the light curves and combined them with Swift/XRT to extract the X-ray spectra. In addition, we compiled archival observations and measurements from the literature to complement these data. Results: Comparing the evolution of the optical continuum emission with the Hα line variability, we identified three different patterns of optical variability: first, global increases and decreases of the optical brightness, observed from 1982 to 1994 and from 2009 to 2017, which can be explained by the dissipation and replenishment of the circumstellar disc; second, superorbital variations with a period of Psuperorb ≈ 590 days, observed in 2002-2009, which seems to be related to the circumstellar disc; and third, optical outbursts, observed in 1998-1999 and 2002-2005, which we interpret as mass ejections from the Be star. We discovered the presence of a retrograde one-armed density wave, which appeared in 2016 and is still present in the circumstellar disc. Conclusions: We carried out the most complete long-term optical study of the Be/X-ray binary H 1145-619 in correlation with its X-ray activity. For the first time, we found the presence of a retrograde density perturbation in the circumstellar disc of a Be/X-ray binary.

A novel early risk assessment tool for detecting clinical outcomes in patients with heat-related illness (J-ERATO score): Development and validation in independent cohorts in Japan.

PubMed

Hayashida, Kei; Kondo, Yutaka; Hifumi, Toru; Shimazaki, Junya; Oda, Yasutaka; Shiraishi, Shinichiro; Fukuda, Tatsuma; Sasaki, Junichi; Shimizu, Keiki

2018-01-01

We sought to develop a novel risk assessment tool to predict the clinical outcomes after heat-related illness. Prospective, multicenter observational study. Patients who transferred to emergency hospitals in Japan with heat-related illness were registered. The sample was divided into two parts: 60% to construct the score and 40% to validate it. A binary logistic regression model was used to predict hospital admission as a primary outcome. The resulting model was transformed into a scoring system. A total of 3,001 eligible patients were analyzed. There was no difference in variables between development and validation cohorts. Based on the result of a logistic regression model in the development phase (n = 1,805), the J-ERATO score was defined as the sum of the six binary components in the prehospital setting (respiratory rate≥22 /min, Glasgow coma scale<15, systolic blood pressure≤100 mmHg, heart rate≥100 bpm, body temperature≥38°C, and age≥65 y), for a total score ranging from 0 to 6. In the validation phase (n = 1,196), the score had excellent discrimination (C-statistic 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89, p<0.0001) and calibration (P>0.2 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test). The observed proportion of hospital admission increased with increasing J-ERATO score (score = 0, 5.0%; score = 1, 15.0%; score = 2, 24.6%; score = 3, 38.6%; score = 4, 68.0%; score = 5, 85.2%; score = 6, 96.4%). Multivariate analyses showed that the J-ERATO score was an independent positive predictor of hospital admission (adjusted OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.06-2.87; P<0.001), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (3.73; 2.95-4.72; P<0.001) and in-hospital mortality (1.65; 1.18-2.32; P = 0.004). The J-ERATO score is simply assessed and can facilitate the identification of patients with higher risk of heat-related hospitalization. This scoring system is also significantly associated with the higher likelihood of ICU admission and in-hospital mortality after heat-related hospitalization.

Infalling clouds on to supermassive black hole binaries - II. Binary evolution and the final parsec problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goicovic, Felipe G.; Sesana, Alberto; Cuadra, Jorge; Stasyszyn, Federico

2017-11-01

The formation of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) is an unavoidable outcome of galaxy evolution via successive mergers. However, the mechanism that drives their orbital evolution from parsec separations down to the gravitational wave dominated regime is poorly understood, and their final fate is still unclear. If such binaries are embedded in gas-rich and turbulent environments, as observed in remnants of galaxy mergers, the interaction with gas clumps (such as molecular clouds) may efficiently drive their orbital evolution. Using numerical simulations, we test this hypothesis by studying the dynamical evolution of an equal mass, circular MBHB accreting infalling molecular clouds. We investigate different orbital configurations, modelling a total of 13 systems to explore different possible impact parameters and relative inclinations of the cloud-binary encounter. We focus our study on the prompt, transient phase during the first few orbits when the dynamical evolution of the binary is fastest, finding that this evolution is dominated by the exchange of angular momentum through gas capture by the individual black holes and accretion. Building on these results, we construct a simple model for evolving an MBHB interacting with a sequence of clouds, which are randomly drawn from reasonable populations with different levels of anisotropy in their angular momenta distributions. We show that the binary efficiently evolves down to the gravitational wave emission regime within a few hundred million years, overcoming the 'final parsec' problem regardless of the stellar distribution.

Introduction to methodology of dose-response meta-analysis for binary outcome: With application on software.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Jia, Pengli; Yu, Liu; Xu, Chang

2018-05-01

Dose-response meta-analysis (DRMA) is widely applied to investigate the dose-specific relationship between independent and dependent variables. Such methods have been in use for over 30 years and are increasingly employed in healthcare and clinical decision-making. In this article, we give an overview of the methodology used in DRMA. We summarize the commonly used regression model and the pooled method in DRMA. We also use an example to illustrate how to employ a DRMA by these methods. Five regression models, linear regression, piecewise regression, natural polynomial regression, fractional polynomial regression, and restricted cubic spline regression, were illustrated in this article to fit the dose-response relationship. And two types of pooling approaches, that is, one-stage approach and two-stage approach are illustrated to pool the dose-response relationship across studies. The example showed similar results among these models. Several dose-response meta-analysis methods can be used for investigating the relationship between exposure level and the risk of an outcome. However the methodology of DRMA still needs to be improved. © 2018 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

An Extensive Census of Hubble Space Telescope Counterparts to Chandra X-Ray Sources in the Globular Cluster 47 Tucanae. I. Astrometry and Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, Peter D.; Gilliland, Ronald L.; Heinke, Craig O.; Grindlay, Jonathan E.

2003-10-01

We report in this study of 47 Tucanae the largest number of optical identifications of X-ray sources yet obtained in a single globular cluster. Using deep Chandra ACIS-I imaging and extensive Hubble Space Telescope studies with Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2; including a 120 orbit program giving superb V and I images), we have detected optical counterparts to at least 22 cataclysmic variables (CVs) and 29 chromospherically active binaries (BY Dra and RS CVn systems) in 47 Tuc. These identifications are all based on tight astrometric matches between X-ray sources and objects with unusual (non-main-sequence [non-MS]) optical colors and/or optical variability. Several other CVs and active binaries have likely been found, but these have marginal significance because of larger offsets between the X-ray and optical positions, or colors and variability that are not statistically convincing. These less secure optical identifications are not subsequently discussed in detail. In the U versus U-V color-magnitude diagram (CMD), where the U band corresponds to either F336W or F300W, the CVs all show evidence for blue colors compared with the MS, but most of them fall close to the main sequence in the V versus V-I CMD, showing that the secondary stars dominate the optical light. The X-ray-detected active binaries have magnitude offsets above the MS (in both the U versus U-V or V versus V-I CMDs) that are indistinguishable from those of the much larger sample of optical variables (eclipsing and contact binaries and BY Dra variables) detected in the recent WFPC2 studies of Albrow et al. We also present the results of a new, deeper search for optical companions to millisecond pulsars (MSPs). One possible optical companion to an MSP (47 Tuc T) was found, adding to the two optical companions already known. Finally, we study several blue stars with periodic variability from Albrow et al. that show little or no evidence for X-ray emission. The optical colors of these objects differ from those of 47 Tuc (and field) CVs. An accompanying paper will present time series results for these optical identifications and will discuss X-ray-to-optical flux ratios, spatial distributions, and an overall interpretation of the results. Based on observations with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope obtained at STScI, which is operated by AURA, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.

IUE spectra of the eclipsing binary NN Serpentis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Janet H.; Marsh, Thomas R.

1991-01-01

Low-resolution SWP and LWP IUE spectra are used to fit the temperature and angular radius of the white dwarf in the detached eclipsing binary NN Ser. It is found that the redenning to the system has E(B-V) of 0.05 +/-0.05, the white dwarf temperature is 60,000 +/-10,000 K, and the age of the white dwarf is less than 10 exp 7. The shape of eclipse and the K-magnitude of the secondary star are used to constrain the inclination of the binary and the masses and radii of the two stars. The size of the secondary star relative to its Roche lobe and the age of the white dwarf indicate that mass transfer has not yet occurred and that the system is a precataclysmic variable rather than a cataclysmic variable which has entered the period gap. Fitting the observed magnitude of the sinusoidal modulation with a reprocessing model shows that only when i is approximately equal to 90 deg is the required temperature of the secondary star consistent with these results. For this solution the white dwarf temperature is also consistent with those obtained from the IUE spectra.

Monitoring the Black Hole Binary GRS 1758-258 with INTEGRAL and RXTE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pottschmidt, Katja; Chernyakova, Masha; Lubinski, Piotr; Migliari, Simone; Smith, David M.; Zdziarski, Andrzej A.; Tomsick, John A.; Bezayiff, N.; Kreykenbohm, Ingo; Kretschmar, Peter;

Chandra Observations of the Eclipsing Wolf-Rayet Binary CQ CepOver a Full Orbital Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skinner, Steve L.; Guedel, Manuel; Schmutz, Werner; Zhekov, Svetozar

2018-06-01

We present results of Chandra X-ray observations and simultaneous optical light curves of the short-period (1.64 d) eclipsing WN6+O9 binary system CQ Cep obtained in 2013 and 2017 covering a full binary orbit. Our primary objective was to compare the observed X-ray properties with colliding wind shock theory, which predicts that the hottest shock plasma (T > 20 MK) will form on or near the line-of-centers between the stars. Thus, X-ray variability is expected during eclipses when the hottest plasma is occulted. The X-ray spectrum is strikingly similar to apparently single WN6 stars such as WR 134 and spectral lines reveal plasma over a broad range of temperatures T ~ 4 - 40 MK. Both primary and secondary optical eclipses were clearly detected and provide an accurate orbital period determination (P = 1.6412 d). The X-ray emission remained remarkably steady throughout the orbit and statistical tests give a low probability of variability. The lack of significant X-ray variabililty during eclipses indicates that the X-ray emission is not confined along the line-of-centers but is extended on larger spatial scales, contrary to colliding wind predictions.

Factors associated with unhealthy behaviours and health outcomes: a cross-sectional study among Tuscan adolescents (Italy).

PubMed

Lazzeri, Giacomo; Azzolini, Elena; Pammolli, Andrea; Simi, Rita; Meoni, Veronica; Giacchi, Mariano Vincenzo

2014-09-25

We aimed to determine the extent to which three core variables (school environment, peer group and family affluence) were associated with unhealthy behaviours and health outcomes among Tuscan adolescents. The unhealthy behaviours considered were smoking, alcohol consumption, sedentary lifestyle and irregular breakfast consumption; health outcomes were classified as self-reported health, multiple health complaints and life satisfaction. School environment was measured in terms of liking school, school pressure, academic achievement and classmate support; peer groups were evaluated in terms of the number of peers and frequency of peer contact. Family affluence was measured on a socioeconomic scale. Data were taken from the Tuscan 2009/10 survey of "Health Behaviour in School-aged Children", a WHO cross-national survey. A binary logistic multiple regression (95% confidence intervals) was implemented. The total sample comprised 3291 school students: 1135 11-year-olds, 1255 13-year-olds and 901 15-year-olds. Peer group and school environment were associated with unhealthy behaviours such as smoking, alcohol consumption and sedentary lifestyle. Family affluence proved to have less impact on unhealthy behaviours, except in the case of adolescents living in low-income families. Poor health outcomes were directly related to a negative school environment. Regarding the influence of family affluence, the results showed higher odds of life dissatisfaction and poor self-reported health status in medium-income families, while low-income families had higher odds only with regard to life dissatisfaction. A consistent pattern of gender differences was found in terms of both unhealthy behaviours and health outcomes. Unhealthy behaviours are strongly related to the school environment and peer group. A negative school environment proved to have the strongest relation with poor health outcomes.

Neonatal screening for glutaric aciduria type I: strategies to proceed.

PubMed

Lindner, M; Ho, S; Fang-Hoffmann, J; Hoffmann, G F; Kölker, S

2006-01-01

Acute encephalopathic crisis in glutaric aciduria type I results in an unfavourable disease course and poor outcome, dominated by dystonia, feeding problems, seizures and reduced life expectancy. A conditio sine qua non for the prevention of irreversible brain damage is timely diagnosis and start of therapy, i.e. before the onset of neurological disease. As there are no specific clinical signs or symptoms that allow a reliable detection of these patients before the manifestation of encephalopathic crises, neonatal screening programmes for glutaric aciduria type I have been established in some countries using analysis of glutarylcarnitine in dried blood spots by tandem mass spectrometry. This article summarizes recent strategies, pitfalls and shortcomings of mass screening for glutaric aciduria type I, focusing on the relevant risk of missing patients with a mild biochemical phenotype (i.e. low excretors). Furthermore, it evaluates a binary strategy--using glutarylcarnitine as primary variable and glutarylcarnitine/acylcarnitine ratios as secondary variable--to improve the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of neonatal screening for glutaric aciduria type I. An optimization of diagnostic as well as therapeutic procedures must be achieved before screening for glutaric aciduria type I can be regarded as reliable and beneficial for all patients.

A Method for Calculating the Probability of Successfully Completing a Rocket Propulsion Ground Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Messer, Bradley

2007-01-01

Propulsion ground test facilities face the daily challenge of scheduling multiple customers into limited facility space and successfully completing their propulsion test projects. Over the last decade NASA s propulsion test facilities have performed hundreds of tests, collected thousands of seconds of test data, and exceeded the capabilities of numerous test facility and test article components. A logistic regression mathematical modeling technique has been developed to predict the probability of successfully completing a rocket propulsion test. A logistic regression model is a mathematical modeling approach that can be used to describe the relationship of several independent predictor variables X(sub 1), X(sub 2),.., X(sub k) to a binary or dichotomous dependent variable Y, where Y can only be one of two possible outcomes, in this case Success or Failure of accomplishing a full duration test. The use of logistic regression modeling is not new; however, modeling propulsion ground test facilities using logistic regression is both a new and unique application of the statistical technique. Results from this type of model provide project managers with insight and confidence into the effectiveness of rocket propulsion ground testing.

Identifying factors influencing contraceptive use in Bangladesh: evidence from BDHS 2014 data.

PubMed

Hossain, M B; Khan, M H R; Ababneh, F; Shaw, J E H

2018-01-30

Birth control is the conscious control of the birth rate by methods which temporarily prevent conception by interfering with the normal process of ovulation, fertilization, and implantation. High contraceptive prevalence rate is always expected for controlling births for those countries that are experiencing high population growth rate. The factors that influence contraceptive prevalence are also important to know for policy implication purposes in Bangladesh. This study aims to explore the socio-economic, demographic and others key factors that influence the use of contraception in Bangladesh. The contraception data are extracted from the 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data which were collected by using a two stage stratified random sampling technique that is a source of nested variability. The nested sources of variability must be incorporated in the model using random effects in order to model the actual parameter effects on contraceptive prevalence. A mixed effect logistic regression model has been implemented for the binary contraceptive data, where parameters are estimated through generalized estimating equation by assuming exchangeable correlation structure to explore and identify the factors that truly affect the use of contraception in Bangladesh. The prevalence of contraception use by currently married 15-49 years aged women or their husbands is 62.4%. Our study finds that administrative division, place of residence, religion, number of household members, woman's age, occupation, body mass index, breastfeeding practice, husband's education, wish for children, living status with wife, sexual activity in past year, women amenorrheic status, abstaining status, number of children born in last five years and total children ever died were significantly associated with contraception use in Bangladesh. The odds of women experiencing the outcome of interest are not independent due to the nested structure of the data. As a result, a mixed effect model is implemented for the binary variable 'contraceptive use' to produce true estimates for the significant determinants of contraceptive use in Bangladesh. Knowing such true estimates is important for attaining future goals including increasing contraception use from 62 to 75% by 2020 by the Bangladesh government's Health, Population & Nutrition Sector Development Program (HPNSDP).

Planet Formation in Stellar Binaries: How Disk Gravity Can Lower theFragmentation Barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silsbee, Kedron; Rafikov, Roman R.

2014-11-01

Binary star systems present a challenge to current theories of planet formation. Perturbations from the companion star dynamically excite the protoplanetary disk, which can lead to destructive collisions between planetesimals, and prevent growth from 1 km to 100 km sized planetesimals. Despite this apparent barrier to coagulation, planets have been discovered within several small-separation (<20 AU), eccentric (eb 0.4) binaries, such as alpha Cen and gamma Cep. We address this problem by analytically exploring planetesimal dynamics under the simultaneous action of (1) binary perturbation, (2) gas drag (which tends to align planetesimal orbits), and (3), the gravity of an eccentric protoplanetary disk. We then use our dynamical solutions to assess the outcomes of planetesimal collisions (growth, destruction, erosion) for a variety of disk models. We find that planets in small-separation binaries can form at their present locations if the primordial protoplanetary disks were massive (>0.01M⊙) and not very eccentric (eccentricity of order several per cent at the location of planet). This constraint on the disk mass is compatible with the high masses of the giant planets in known gamma Cep-like binaries, which require a large mass reservoir for their formation. We show that for these massive disks, disk gravity is dominant over the gravity of the binary companion at the location of the observed planets. Therefore, planetesimal growth is highly sensitive to disk properties. The requirement of low disk eccentricity is in line with the recent hydrodynamic simulations that tend to show gaseous disks in eccentric binaries developing very low eccentricity, at the level of a few percent. A massive purely axisymmetric disk makes for a friendlier environment for planetesimal growth by driving rapid apsidal precession of planetesimals, and averaging out the eccentricity excitation from the binary companion. When the protoplanetary disk is eccentric we find that the most favorable conditions for planetesimal growth emerge when the disk is non-precessing and is apsidally aligned with the orbit of the binary.

Photometric studies of two solar type marginal contact binaries in the Small Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanti Priya, Devarapalli; Rukmini, Jagirdar

2018-04-01

Using the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment catalogue, two contact binaries were studied using data in the V and I bands. The photometric solutions for the V and I bands are presented for two contact binaries OGLE 003835.24-735413.2 (V1) and OGLE 004619.65-725056.2 (V2) in Small Maglellanic Cloud. The presented light curves are analyzed using the Wilson-Devinney code. The results show that the variables are in good thermal and marginal geometrical contact with features like the O’Connell effect in V1. The absolute dimensions are estimated and its dynamical evolution is inferred. They tend to be solar type marginal contact binaries. The 3.6-m Devasthal Optical Telescope and the 4.0-m International Liquid Mirror Telescope of the Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES, Nainithal) can facilitate the continuous monitoring of such kind of objects which will help in finding the reasons behind their period changes and their impact on the evolution of the clusters.

Data Mining the Ogle-II I-band Database for Eclipsing Binary Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciocca, M.

2013-08-01

The OGLE I-band database is a searchable database of quality photometric data available to the public. During Phase 2 of the experiment, known as "OGLE-II", I-band observations were made over a period of approximately 1,000 days, resulting in over 1010 measurements of more than 40 million stars. This was accomplished by using a filter with a passband near the standard Cousins Ic. The database of these observations is fully searchable using the mysql database engine, and provides the magnitude measurements and their uncertainties. In this work, a program of data mining the OGLE I-band database was performed, resulting in the discovery of 42 previously unreported eclipsing binaries. Using the software package Peranso (Vanmuster 2011) to analyze the light curves obtained from OGLE-II, the eclipsing types, the epochs and the periods of these eclipsing variables were determined, to one part in 106. A preliminary attempt to model the physical parameters of these binaries was also performed, using the Binary Maker 3 software (Bradstreet and Steelman 2004).

X-ray observations of the colliding wind binary WR 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, Bharti; Pandey, Jeewan Chandra

2018-04-01

Using the archival data obtained from Chandra and Suzaku spanning over '8 years, we present an analysis of a WN6h+O4f Wolf-Rayet binary, WR 25. The X-ray light curves folded over a period of '208 d in the 0.3 - 10.0 keV energy band showed phase-locked variability where the count rates were found to be maximum near the periastron passage. The X-ray spectra of WR 25 were well explained by a two-temperature plasma model with temperatures of 0.64 ± 0.01 and 2.96 ± 0.05 keV and are consistent with previous results. The orbital phase dependent local hydrogen column density was found to be maximum just after the periastron passage, when the WN type star is in front of the O star. The hard (2.0 - 10.0 keV) X-ray luminosity was linearly dependent on the inverse of binary separation which confirms that WR 25 is a colliding wind binary.

Time Series Observations of the 2015 Eclipse of b Persei (not beta Persei) (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, D. F.

2016-06-01

(Abstract only) The bright (V = 4.6) ellipsoidal variable b Persei consists of a close non-eclipsing binary pair that shows a nearly sinusoidal light curve with a ~1.5 day period. This system also contains a third star that orbits the binary pair every 702 days. AAVSO observers recently detected the first ever optical eclipse of A-B binary pair by the third star as a series of snapshots (D. Collins, R. Zavala, J. Sanborn - AAVSO Spring Meeting, 2013); abstract published in Collins, JAAVSO, 41, 2, 391 (2013); b Per mis-printed as b Per therein. A follow-up eclipse campaign in mid-January 2015 recorded time-series observations. These new time-series observations clearly show multiple ingress and egress of each component of the binary system by the third star over the eclipse duration of 2 to 3 days. A simulation of the eclipse was created. Orbital and some astrophysical parameters were adjusted within constraints to give a reasonable fit to the observed light curve.

ASCA Observation of MS 1603.6+2600 (=UW Coronae Borealis): A Dipping Low-Mass X-ray Binary in the Outer Halo?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukai, Koji; Smale, Alan; Stahle, Caroline K.; Schlegel, Eric M.; Wijnands, Rudy; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

MS 1603.6+2600 is a high-latitude X-ray binary with a 111 min orbital period, thought to be either an unusual cataclysmic variable or an unusual low-mass X-ray binary. In an ASCA observation in 1997 August, we find a burst whose light curve suggests a Type 1 (thermonuclear flash) origin. We also find an orbital X-ray modulation in MS 1603.6+2600, which is likely to be periodic dips, presumably due to azimuthal structure in the accretion disk. Both are consistent with this system being a normal low-mass X-ray binary harboring a neutron star, but at a great distance. We tentatively suggest that MS 1603.6+2600 is located in the outer halo of the Milky Way, perhaps associated with the globular cluster Palomar 14, 11 deg away from MS 1603.6+2600 on the sky at an estimated distance of 73.8 kpc.

What Can Simbol-X Do for Gamma-ray Binaries?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerutti, B.; Dubus, G.; Henri, G.; Hill, A. B.; Szostek, A.

2009-05-01

Gamma-ray binaries have been uncovered as a new class of Galactic objects in the very high energy sky (>100 GeV). The three systems known today have hard X-ray spectra (photon index ~1.5), extended radio emission and a high luminosity in gamma-rays. Recent monitoring campaigns of LSI +61°303 in X-rays have confirmed variability in these systems and revealed a spectral hardening with increasing flux. In a generic one-zone leptonic model, the cooling of relativistic electrons accounts for the main spectral and temporal features observed at high energy. Persistent hard X-ray emission is expected to extend well beyond 10 keV. We explain how Simbol-X will constrain the existing models in connection with Fermi Space Telescope measurements. Because of its unprecedented sensitivity in hard X-rays, Simbol-X will also play a role in the discovery of new gamma-ray binaries, giving new insights into the evolution of compact binaries.

The Spot Variability and Related Brightness variations of the Solar Type PreContact W UMa Binary System V1001 Cas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samec, Ronald George; Koenke, Sam S.; Faulkner, Danny R.

2015-08-01

A new classification of eclipsing binary has emerged, Pre Contact WUMa Binaries (PCWB’s, Samec et al. 2012). These solar-type systems are usually detached or semidetached with one or both components under filling their critical Roche lobes. They usually have EA or EB-type light curves (unequal eclipse depths, indicating components with substantially different temperatures). The accepted scenario for these W UMa binaries is that they are undergoing steady but slow angular momentum losses due to magnetic braking as stellar winds blow radially away on stiff bipolar field lines. These binaries are believed to come into stable contact and eventually coalesce into blue straggler type, single, fast rotating A-type stars (Guinan and Bradstreet,1988). High precision 2012 and 2009 light curves are compared for the very short period (~0.43d) Precontact W UMa Binary (PCWB), V1001 Cassiopeia. This is the shortest period PCWB found so far. Its short period, similar to the majority of W UMa’s, in contrast to its distinct Algol-type light curve, make it a very rare and interesting system. Our solutions of light curves separated by some three years give approximately the same physical parameters. However the spots radically change, in temperature, area and position causing a distinctive variation in the shape of the light curves. We conclude that spots are very active on this solar type dwarf system and that it may mimic its larger cousins, the RS CVn binaries.

Exact statistical results for binary mixing and reaction in variable density turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ristorcelli, J. R.

2017-02-01

We report a number of rigorous statistical results on binary active scalar mixing in variable density turbulence. The study is motivated by mixing between pure fluids with very different densities and whose density intensity is of order unity. Our primary focus is the derivation of exact mathematical results for mixing in variable density turbulence and we do point out the potential fields of application of the results. A binary one step reaction is invoked to derive a metric to asses the state of mixing. The mean reaction rate in variable density turbulent mixing can be expressed, in closed form, using the first order Favre mean variables and the Reynolds averaged density variance, ⟨ρ2⟩ . We show that the normalized density variance, ⟨ρ2⟩ , reflects the reduction of the reaction due to mixing and is a mix metric. The result is mathematically rigorous. The result is the variable density analog, the normalized mass fraction variance ⟨c2⟩ used in constant density turbulent mixing. As a consequence, we demonstrate that use of the analogous normalized Favre variance of the mass fraction, c″ ⁣2˜ , as a mix metric is not theoretically justified in variable density turbulence. We additionally derive expressions relating various second order moments of the mass fraction, specific volume, and density fields. The central role of the density specific volume covariance ⟨ρ v ⟩ is highlighted; it is a key quantity with considerable dynamical significance linking various second order statistics. For laboratory experiments, we have developed exact relations between the Reynolds scalar variance ⟨c2⟩ its Favre analog c″ ⁣2˜ , and various second moments including ⟨ρ v ⟩ . For moment closure models that evolve ⟨ρ v ⟩ and not ⟨ρ2⟩ , we provide a novel expression for ⟨ρ2⟩ in terms of a rational function of ⟨ρ v ⟩ that avoids recourse to Taylor series methods (which do not converge for large density differences). We have derived analytic results relating several other second and third order moments and see coupling between odd and even order moments demonstrating a natural and inherent skewness in the mixing in variable density turbulence. The analytic results have applications in the areas of isothermal material mixing, isobaric thermal mixing, and simple chemical reaction (in progress variable formulation).

IGR J14257-6117, a magnetic accreting white dwarf with a very strong strong X-ray orbital modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardini, F.; de Martino, D.; Mukai, K.; Falanga, M.

2018-04-01

IGR J14257-6117 is an unclassified source in the hard X-ray catalogues. Optical follow-ups suggest it could be a Cataclysmic Variable of the magnetic type. We present the first high S/N X-ray observation performed by XMM-Newton at 0.3-10 keV, complemented with 10-80 keV coverage by Swift/BAT, aimed at revealing the source nature. We detected for the first time a fast periodic variability at 509.5 s and a longer periodic variability at 4.05 h, ascribed to the white dwarf (WD) spin and binary orbital periods, respectively. These unambiguously identify IGR J14257-6117 as a magnetic CV of the Intermediate Polar (IP) type. The energy resolved light curves at both periods reveal amplitudes decreasing with increasing energy, with the orbital modulation reaching ˜100% in the softest band. The energy spectrum shows optically thin thermal emission with an excess at the iron complex, absorbed by two dense media (NH ˜ 1022 - 23 cm-2), partially covering the X-ray source. These are likely localised in the magnetically confined accretion flow above the WD surface and at the disc rim, producing the energy dependent spin and orbital variabilities, respectively. IGR J14257-6117, joins the group of strongest orbitally modulated IPs now counting four systems. Drawing similarities with low-mass X-ray binaries displaying orbital dips, these IPs should be seen at large orbital inclinations allowing azimuthally extended absorbing material fixed in the binary frame to intercept the line of sight. For IGR J14257-6117, we estimate (50o ≲ i ≲ 70o). Whether also the mass accretion rate plays a role in the large orbital modulations in IPs cannot be established with the present data.

High-resolution H -band Spectroscopy of Be Stars with SDSS-III/APOGEE. II. Line Profile and Radial Velocity Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chojnowski, S. Drew; Holtzman, Jon A.; Wisniewski, John P.

2017-04-01

We report on the H -band spectral variability of classical Be stars observed over the course of the Apache Point Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), one of four subsurveys comprising SDSS-III. As described in the first paper of this series, the APOGEE B-type emission-line (ABE) star sample was culled from the large number of blue stars observed as telluric standards during APOGEE observations. In this paper, we explore the multi-epoch ABE sample, consisting of 1100 spectra for 213 stars. These “snapshots” of the circumstellar disk activity have revealed a wealth of temporal variability including, but not limited to, gradual disappearance ofmore » the line emission and vice versa over both short and long timescales. Other forms of variability include variation in emission strength, emission peak intensity ratios, and emission peak separations. We also analyze radial velocities (RVs) of the emission lines for a subsample of 162 stars with sufficiently strong features, and we discuss on a case-by-case basis whether the RV variability exhibited by some stars is caused by binary motion versus dynamical processes in the circumstellar disks. Ten systems are identified as convincing candidates for binary Be stars with as of yet undetected companions.« less

International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology in women with postmenopausal bleeding and sonographic endometrial thickness ≥ 4.5 mm: agreement and reliability study.

PubMed

Sladkevicius, P; Installé, A; Van Den Bosch, T; Timmerman, D; Benacerraf, B; Jokubkiene, L; Di Legge, A; Votino, A; Zannoni, L; De Moor, B; De Cock, B; Van Calster, B; Valentin, L

2018-02-01

To estimate intra- and interrater agreement and reliability with regard to describing ultrasound images of the endometrium using the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology. Four expert and four non-expert raters assessed videoclips of transvaginal ultrasound examinations of the endometrium obtained from 99 women with postmenopausal bleeding and sonographic endometrial thickness ≥ 4.5 mm but without fluid in the uterine cavity. The following features were rated: endometrial echogenicity, endometrial midline, bright edge, endometrial-myometrial junction, color score, vascular pattern, irregularly branching vessels and color splashes. The color content of the endometrial scan was estimated using a visual analog scale graded from 0 to 100. To estimate intrarater agreement and reliability, the same videoclips were assessed twice with a minimum of 2 months' interval. The raters were blinded to their own results and to those of the other raters. Interrater differences in the described prevalence of most IETA variables were substantial, and some variable categories were observed rarely. Specific agreement was poor for variables with many categories. For binary variables, specific agreement was better for absence than for presence of a category. For variables with more than two outcome categories, specific agreement for expert and non-expert raters was best for not-defined endometrial midline (93% and 96%), regular endometrial-myometrial junction (72% and 70%) and three-layer endometrial pattern (67% and 56%). The grayscale ultrasound variable with the best reliability was uniform vs non-uniform echogenicity (multirater kappa (κ), 0.55 for expert and 0.52 for non-expert raters), and the variables with the lowest reliability were appearance of the endometrial-myometrial junction (κ, 0.25 and 0.16) and the nine-category endometrial echogenicity variable (κ, 0.29 and 0.28). The most reliable color Doppler variable was color score (mean weighted κ, 0.77 and 0.69). Intra- and interrater agreement and reliability were similar for experts and non-experts. Inter- and intrarater agreement and reliability when using IETA terminology were limited. This may have implications when assessing the association between a particular ultrasound feature and a specific histological diagnosis, because lack of reproducibility reduces the reliability of the association between a feature and the outcome. Future studies should investigate whether using fewer categories of variable or offering practical training could improve agreement and reliability. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A comparison of imputation techniques for handling missing predictor values in a risk model with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Ambler, Gareth; Omar, Rumana Z; Royston, Patrick

2007-06-01

Risk models that aim to predict the future course and outcome of disease processes are increasingly used in health research, and it is important that they are accurate and reliable. Most of these risk models are fitted using routinely collected data in hospitals or general practices. Clinical outcomes such as short-term mortality will be near-complete, but many of the predictors may have missing values. A common approach to dealing with this is to perform a complete-case analysis. However, this may lead to overfitted models and biased estimates if entire patient subgroups are excluded. The aim of this paper is to investigate a number of methods for imputing missing data to evaluate their effect on risk model estimation and the reliability of the predictions. Multiple imputation methods, including hotdecking and multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), were investigated along with several single imputation methods. A large national cardiac surgery database was used to create simulated yet realistic datasets. The results suggest that complete case analysis may produce unreliable risk predictions and should be avoided. Conditional mean imputation performed well in our scenario, but may not be appropriate if using variable selection methods. MICE was amongst the best performing multiple imputation methods with regards to the quality of the predictions. Additionally, it produced the least biased estimates, with good coverage, and hence is recommended for use in practice.

Astronomy in Denver: Spectropolarimetric Observations of 5 Wolf-Rayet Binary Stars with SALT/RSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fullard, Andrew; Ansary, Zyed; Azancot Luchtan, Daniel; Gallegos, Hunter; Luepker, Martin; Hoffman, Jennifer L.; Nordsieck, Kenneth H.; SALT observation team

2018-06-01

Mass loss from massive stars is an important yet poorly understood factor in shaping their evolution. Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars are of particular interest due to their stellar winds, which create large regions of circumstellar material (CSM). They are also supernova and possible gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitors. Like other massive stars, WR stars often occur in binaries, where interaction can affect their mass loss rates and provide the rapid rotation thought to be required for GRB production. The diagnostic tool of spectropolarimetry, along with the potentially eclipsing nature of a binary system, helps us to better characterize the CSM created by the stars’ colliding winds. Thus, we can determine mass loss rates and infer rapid rotation. We present spectropolarimetric results for five WR+O eclipsing binary systems, obtained with the Robert Stobie Spectrograph at the South African Large Telescope, between April 2017 and April 2018. The data allow us to map both continuum and emission line polarization variations with phase, which constrains where different CSM components scatter light in the systems. We discuss our initial findings and interpretations of the polarimetric variability in each binary system, and compare the systems.

Investigating the Binary Offset Effect in the STIS CCD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debes, John H.; Lockwood, Sean A.

2018-05-01

Recently, Boone et al., (2018) presented the "Binary Offset Effect" for the SNIFS instrument, which uses a CCD detector. The source of this uncertainty is related to the analog-to-digital readout process, which converts the analog electronic signal of the detector into a digital number as represented by binary bits. The Binary Offset Effect is due to cross-talk between the digital conversion process for a source or driver pixel and pixels read out after the driver. In the course of Boone et al.'s experimentation with this effect they identified a similar effect with the STIS CCD. The STIS team has independently investigated the Binary Offset Effect for a range of bias images currently used for scientific observations, broadly confirming that the effect exists. However, our preliminary investigation suggests that the impact is smaller than reported in Boone et al. (2018) for biases taken with Amplifier=D and GAIN=1, and a lesser effect exists for Amplifier=D and GAIN=4. There is a hint that the effect is time variable for the detector. We broadly assess the potential impact of this effect and make recommendations both for users and future directions of investigation.

Guidance for the utility of linear models in meta-analysis of genetic association studies of binary phenotypes.

PubMed

Cook, James P; Mahajan, Anubha; Morris, Andrew P

2017-02-01

Linear mixed models are increasingly used for the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of binary phenotypes because they can efficiently and robustly account for population stratification and relatedness through inclusion of random effects for a genetic relationship matrix. However, the utility of linear (mixed) models in the context of meta-analysis of GWAS of binary phenotypes has not been previously explored. In this investigation, we present simulations to compare the performance of linear and logistic regression models under alternative weighting schemes in a fixed-effects meta-analysis framework, considering designs that incorporate variable case-control imbalance, confounding factors and population stratification. Our results demonstrate that linear models can be used for meta-analysis of GWAS of binary phenotypes, without loss of power, even in the presence of extreme case-control imbalance, provided that one of the following schemes is used: (i) effective sample size weighting of Z-scores or (ii) inverse-variance weighting of allelic effect sizes after conversion onto the log-odds scale. Our conclusions thus provide essential recommendations for the development of robust protocols for meta-analysis of binary phenotypes with linear models.

Power Spectrum Density of Long-Term MAXI Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, Juri; Mihara, Tatehiro; Sugizaki, Mutsumi; Serino, Motoko; Kitamoto, Shunji; Sato, Ryousuke; Ueda, Yoshihiro; Ueno, Shiro

Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) on the International Space Station has been observing the X-ray sky since 2009 August 15. It has accumulated the X-ray data for about four years, so far. X-ray objects are usually variable and their variability can be studied by the power spectrum density (PSD) of the X-ray light curves. We applied our method to calculate PSDs of several kinds of objects observed with MAXI. We obtained significant PSDs from 16 Seyfert galaxies. For blackhole binary Cygnus X-1 there was a difference in the shape of PSD between the hard state and the soft state. For high mass X-ray binaries, Cen X-3, SMC X-1, and LMC X-4, there were several peaks in the PSD corresponding to the orbital period and the superorbital period.

Binary variable multiple-model multiple imputation to address missing data mechanism uncertainty: Application to a smoking cessation trial

PubMed Central

Siddique, Juned; Harel, Ofer; Crespi, Catherine M.; Hedeker, Donald

2014-01-01

The true missing data mechanism is never known in practice. We present a method for generating multiple imputations for binary variables that formally incorporates missing data mechanism uncertainty. Imputations are generated from a distribution of imputation models rather than a single model, with the distribution reflecting subjective notions of missing data mechanism uncertainty. Parameter estimates and standard errors are obtained using rules for nested multiple imputation. Using simulation, we investigate the impact of missing data mechanism uncertainty on post-imputation inferences and show that incorporating this uncertainty can increase the coverage of parameter estimates. We apply our method to a longitudinal smoking cessation trial where nonignorably missing data were a concern. Our method provides a simple approach for formalizing subjective notions regarding nonresponse and can be implemented using existing imputation software. PMID:24634315

CLUSTERING SOUTH AFRICAN HOUSEHOLDS BASED ON THEIR ASSET STATUS USING LATENT VARIABLE MODELS

PubMed Central

McParland, Damien; Gormley, Isobel Claire; McCormick, Tyler H.; Clark, Samuel J.; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa Whiteson; Collinson, Mark A.

2014-01-01

The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has since 2001 conducted a biannual household asset survey in order to quantify household socio-economic status (SES) in a rural population living in northeast South Africa. The survey contains binary, ordinal and nominal items. In the absence of income or expenditure data, the SES landscape in the study population is explored and described by clustering the households into homogeneous groups based on their asset status. A model-based approach to clustering the Agincourt households, based on latent variable models, is proposed. In the case of modeling binary or ordinal items, item response theory models are employed. For nominal survey items, a factor analysis model, similar in nature to a multinomial probit model, is used. Both model types have an underlying latent variable structure—this similarity is exploited and the models are combined to produce a hybrid model capable of handling mixed data types. Further, a mixture of the hybrid models is considered to provide clustering capabilities within the context of mixed binary, ordinal and nominal response data. The proposed model is termed a mixture of factor analyzers for mixed data (MFA-MD). The MFA-MD model is applied to the survey data to cluster the Agincourt households into homogeneous groups. The model is estimated within the Bayesian paradigm, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Intuitive groupings result, providing insight to the different socio-economic strata within the Agincourt region. PMID:25485026

Observational Evidence for Tidal Interaction in Close Binary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazeh, T.

This paper reviews the rich corpus of observational evidence for tidal effects, mostly based on photometric and radial-velocity measurements. This is done in a period when the study of binaries is being revolutionized by large-scaled photometric surveys that are detecting many thousands of new binaries and tens of extrasolar planets. We begin by examining the short-term effects, such as ellipsoidal variability and apsidal motion. We next turn to the long-term effects, of which circularization was studied the most: a transition period between circular and eccentric orbits has been derived for eight coeval samples of binaries. The study of synchronization and spin-orbit alignment is less advanced. As binaries are supposed to reach synchronization before circularization, one can expect finding eccentric binaries in pseudo-synchronization state, the evidence for which is reviewed. We also discuss synchronization in PMS and young stars, and compare the emerging timescale with the circularization timescale. We next examine the tidal interaction in close binaries that are orbited by a third distant companion, and review the effect of pumping the binary eccentricity by the third star. We elaborate on the impact of the pumped eccentricity on the tidal evolution of close binaries residing in triple systems, which may shrink the binary separation. Finally we consider the extrasolar planets and the observational evidence for tidal interaction with their parent stars. This includes a mechanism that can induce radial drift of short-period planets, either inward or outward, depending on the planetary radial position relative to the corotation radius. Another effect is the circularization of planetary orbits, the evidence for which can be found in eccentricity-versus-period plot of the planets already known. Whenever possible, the paper attempts to address the possible confrontation between theory and observations, and to point out noteworthy cases and observations that can be performed in the future and may shed some light on the key questions that remain open.

A tutorial on Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of mixed binary-continuous outcomes with missing treatment effects.

PubMed

Gajic-Veljanoski, Olga; Cheung, Angela M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Tomlinson, George

2016-05-30

Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (BVMA) is a method of data synthesis that accounts for treatment effects measured on two outcomes. BVMA gives more precise estimates of the population mean and predicted values than two univariate random-effects meta-analyses (UVMAs). BVMA also addresses bias from incomplete reporting of outcomes. A few tutorials have covered technical details of BVMA of categorical or continuous outcomes. Limited guidance is available on how to analyze datasets that include trials with mixed continuous-binary outcomes where treatment effects on one outcome or the other are not reported. Given the advantages of Bayesian BVMA for handling missing outcomes, we present a tutorial for Bayesian BVMA of incompletely reported treatment effects on mixed bivariate outcomes. This step-by-step approach can serve as a model for our intended audience, the methodologist familiar with Bayesian meta-analysis, looking for practical advice on fitting bivariate models. To facilitate application of the proposed methods, we include our WinBUGS code. As an example, we use aggregate-level data from published trials to demonstrate the estimation of the effects of vitamin K and bisphosphonates on two correlated bone outcomes, fracture, and bone mineral density. We present datasets where reporting of the pairs of treatment effects on both outcomes was 'partially' complete (i.e., pairs completely reported in some trials), and we outline steps for modeling the incompletely reported data. To assess what is gained from the additional work required by BVMA, we compare the resulting estimates to those from separate UVMAs. We discuss methodological findings and make four recommendations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Log-Linear Cognitive Diagnostic Model (LCDM) as a Special Case of The General Diagnostic Model (GDM). Research Report. ETS RR-14-40

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Davier, Matthias

2014-01-01

Diagnostic models combine multiple binary latent variables in an attempt to produce a latent structure that provides more information about test takers' performance than do unidimensional latent variable models. Recent developments in diagnostic modeling emphasize the possibility that multiple skills may interact in a conjunctive way within the…

Orbits of Four Very Massive Binaries in the R136 Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penny, L. R.; Massey, P.; Vukovich, J.

2001-12-01

We present radial velocity and photometry for four early-type, massive double-lined spectroscopic binaries in the R136 cluster. Three of these systems are eclipsing, allowing orbital inclinations to be determined. One of these systems, R136-38 (O3 V + O6 V), has one of the highest masses ever measured, 57 Modot, for the primary. Comparison of our masses with those derived from standard evolutionary tracks shows excellent agreement. We also identify five other light variables in the R136 cluster worthy of follow-up study.

A Search for Variable Stars in Ruprecht 134 (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hamri, R.; Blake, M.

2018-06-01

(Abstract only) Contact binary stars have been found in many old open clusters. These stars are useful for obtaining the distances to these star clusters and for understanding the stellar populations and evolution of the old clusters. Ruprecht 134 is a relatively neglected, old open cluster with an age of about 1 Gyr. We have obtained observations of Ruprecht 134 using the 1-meter telescope at Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory for the purpose of identifying candidate contact binaries. We present the preliminary results of this search and discuss future observations.

The enigmatic star EZ Pegasi - A mystery solved?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, S. B.; Bopp, B. W.

1985-01-01

EZ Peg, a ninth-magnitude G star that has been classified by various authors as an irregular variable, a U Gem system, and a contact binary, is shown to have all the spectroscopic and photometric characteristics of an active-chromosphere RS CVn binary. It is suggested that the reported outburst of 1943, when the spectrum appeared to be that of a B star, never occurred. The strong Ca II H and K reversals, viewed with low spectral resolution, caused the photospheric Ca II absorption to appear abnormally weak, mimicking a much earlier spectral type.

Formation and Evolution of X-ray Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Y.

2017-07-01

X-ray binaries are a class of binary systems, in which the accretor is a compact star (i.e., black hole, neutron star, or white dwarf). They are one of the most important objects in the universe, which can be used to study not only binary evolution but also accretion disks and compact stars. Statistical investigations of these binaries help to understand the formation and evolution of galaxies, and sometimes provide useful constraints on the cosmological models. The goal of this thesis is to investigate the formation and evolution processes of X-ray binaries including Be/X-ray binaries, low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs), ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs), and cataclysmic variables. In Chapter 1 we give a brief review on the basic knowledge of the binary evolution. In Chapter 2 we discuss the formation of Be stars through binary interaction. In this chapter we investigate the formation of Be stars resulting from mass transfer in binaries in the Galaxy. Using binary evolution and population synthesis calculations, we find that in Be/neutron star binaries the Be stars have a lower limit of mass ˜ 8 M⊙ if they are formed by a stable (i.e., without the occurrence of common envelope evolution) and nonconservative mass transfer. We demonstrate that the isolated Be stars may originate from both mergers of two main-sequence stars and disrupted Be binaries during the supernova explosions of the primary stars, but mergers seem to play a much more important role. Finally the fraction of Be stars produced by binary interactions in all B type stars can be as high as ˜ 13%-30% , implying that most of Be stars may result from binary interaction. In Chapter 3 we show the evolution of intermediate- and low-mass X-ray binaries (I/LMXBs) and the formation of millisecond pulsars. Comparing the calculated results with the observations of binary radio pulsars, we report the following results: (1) The allowed parameter space for forming binary pulsars in the initial orbital period-donor mass plane increases with the increasing neutron star mass. This may help to explain why some millisecond pulsars with orbital periods longer than ˜ 60 d seem to have less massive white dwarfs than expected. Alternatively, some of these wide binary pulsars may be formed through mass transfer driven by planet/brown dwarf-involved common envelope evolution; (2) Some of the pulsars in compact binaries might have evolved from intermediate-mass X-ray binaries with an anomalous magnetic braking; (3) The equilibrium spin periods of neutron stars in low-mass X-ray binaries are in general shorter than the observed spin periods of binary pulsars by more than one order of magnitude, suggesting that either the simple equilibrium spin model does not apply, or there are other mechanisms/processes spinning down the neutron stars. In Chapter 4, angular momentum loss mechanisms in the cataclysmic variables below the period gap are presented. By considering several kinds of consequential angular momentum loss mechanisms, we find that neither isotropic wind from the white dwarf nor outflow from the L1 point can explain the extra angular momentum loss rate, while an ouflow from the L2 point or a circumbinary disk can effectively extract the angular momentum provided that ˜ 15%-45% of the transferred mass is lost from the binary. A more promising mechanism is a circumbinary disk exerting a gravitational torque on the binary. In this case the mass loss fraction can be as low as ≲ 10-3. In Chapter 5 we present a study on the population of ultraluminous X-ray sources with an accreting neutron star. Most ULXs are believed to be X-ray binary systems, but previous observational and theoretical studies tend to prefer a black hole rather than a neutron star accretor. The recent discovery of 1.37 s pulsations from the ULX M82 X-2 has established its nature as a magnetized neutron star. In this chapter we model the formation history of neutron star ULXs in an M82- or Milky Way-like galaxy, by use of both binary population synthesis and detailed binary evolution calculations. We find that the birthrate is around 10-4 yr-1 for the incipient X-ray binaries in both cases. We demonstrate the distribution of the ULX population in the donor mass - orbital period plane. Our results suggest that, compared with black hole X-ray binaries, neutron star X-ray binaries may significantly contribute to the ULX population, and high/intermediate-mass X-ray binaries dominate the neutron star ULX population in M82/Milky Way-like galaxies, respectively. In Chapter 6, the population of intermediate- and low-mass X-ray binaries in the Galaxy is explored. We investigate the formation and evolutionary sequences of Galactic intermediate- and low-mass X-ray binaries by combining binary population synthesis (BPS) and detailed stellar evolutionary calculations. Using an updated BPS code we compute the evolution of massive binaries that leads to the formation of incipient I/LMXBs, and present their distribution in the initial donor mass vs. initial orbital period diagram. We then follow the evolution of I/LMXBs until the formation of binary millisecond pulsars (BMSPs). We show that during the evolution of I/LMXBs they are likely to be observed as relatively compact binaries. The resultant BMSPs have orbital periods ranging from about 1 day to a few hundred days. These features are consistent with observations of LMXBs and BMSPs. We also confirm the discrepancies between theoretical predictions and observations mentioned in the literature, that is, the theoretical average mass transfer rates of LMXBs are considerably lower than observed, and the number of BMSPs with orbital periods ˜ 0.1-1 \\unit{d} is severely underestimated. Both imply that something is missing in the modeling of LMXBs, which is likely to be related to the mechanisms of the orbital angular momentum loss. Finally in Chapter 7 we summarize our results and give the prospects for the future work.

A unified procedure for meta-analytic evaluation of surrogate end points in randomized clinical trials

PubMed Central

Dai, James Y.; Hughes, James P.

2012-01-01

The meta-analytic approach to evaluating surrogate end points assesses the predictiveness of treatment effect on the surrogate toward treatment effect on the clinical end point based on multiple clinical trials. Definition and estimation of the correlation of treatment effects were developed in linear mixed models and later extended to binary or failure time outcomes on a case-by-case basis. In a general regression setting that covers nonnormal outcomes, we discuss in this paper several metrics that are useful in the meta-analytic evaluation of surrogacy. We propose a unified 3-step procedure to assess these metrics in settings with binary end points, time-to-event outcomes, or repeated measures. First, the joint distribution of estimated treatment effects is ascertained by an estimating equation approach; second, the restricted maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the means and the variance components of the random treatment effects; finally, confidence intervals are constructed by a parametric bootstrap procedure. The proposed method is evaluated by simulations and applications to 2 clinical trials. PMID:22394448

Unbiased All-Optical Random-Number Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinle, Tobias; Greiner, Johannes N.; Wrachtrup, Jörg; Giessen, Harald; Gerhardt, Ilja

2017-10-01

The generation of random bits is of enormous importance in modern information science. Cryptographic security is based on random numbers which require a physical process for their generation. This is commonly performed by hardware random-number generators. These often exhibit a number of problems, namely experimental bias, memory in the system, and other technical subtleties, which reduce the reliability in the entropy estimation. Further, the generated outcome has to be postprocessed to "iron out" such spurious effects. Here, we present a purely optical randomness generator, based on the bistable output of an optical parametric oscillator. Detector noise plays no role and postprocessing is reduced to a minimum. Upon entering the bistable regime, initially the resulting output phase depends on vacuum fluctuations. Later, the phase is rigidly locked and can be well determined versus a pulse train, which is derived from the pump laser. This delivers an ambiguity-free output, which is reliably detected and associated with a binary outcome. The resulting random bit stream resembles a perfect coin toss and passes all relevant randomness measures. The random nature of the generated binary outcome is furthermore confirmed by an analysis of resulting conditional entropies.

Bayesian inference for unidirectional misclassification of a binary response trait.

PubMed

Xia, Michelle; Gustafson, Paul

2018-03-15

When assessing association between a binary trait and some covariates, the binary response may be subject to unidirectional misclassification. Unidirectional misclassification can occur when revealing a particular level of the trait is associated with a type of cost, such as a social desirability or financial cost. The feasibility of addressing misclassification is commonly obscured by model identification issues. The current paper attempts to study the efficacy of inference when the binary response variable is subject to unidirectional misclassification. From a theoretical perspective, we demonstrate that the key model parameters possess identifiability, except for the case with a single binary covariate. From a practical standpoint, the logistic model with quantitative covariates can be weakly identified, in the sense that the Fisher information matrix may be near singular. This can make learning some parameters difficult under certain parameter settings, even with quite large samples. In other cases, the stronger identification enables the model to provide more effective adjustment for unidirectional misclassification. An extension to the Poisson approximation of the binomial model reveals the identifiability of the Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson models. For fully identified models, the proposed method adjusts for misclassification based on learning from data. For binary models where there is difficulty in identification, the method is useful for sensitivity analyses on the potential impact from unidirectional misclassification. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relativistic boost as the cause of periodicity in a massive black-hole binary candidate.

PubMed

D'Orazio, Daniel J; Haiman, Zoltán; Schiminovich, David

2015-09-17

Because most large galaxies contain a central black hole, and galaxies often merge, black-hole binaries are expected to be common in galactic nuclei. Although they cannot be imaged, periodicities in the light curves of quasars have been interpreted as evidence for binaries, most recently in PG 1302-102, which has a short rest-frame optical period of four years (ref. 6). If the orbital period of the black-hole binary matches this value, then for the range of estimated black-hole masses, the components would be separated by 0.007-0.017 parsecs, implying relativistic orbital speeds. There has been much debate over whether black-hole orbits could be smaller than one parsec (ref. 7). Here we report that the amplitude and the sinusoid-like shape of the variability of the light curve of PG 1302-102 can be fitted by relativistic Doppler boosting of emission from a compact, steadily accreting, unequal-mass binary. We predict that brightness variations in the ultraviolet light curve track those in the optical, but with a two to three times larger amplitude. This prediction is relatively insensitive to the details of the emission process, and is consistent with archival ultraviolet data. Follow-up ultraviolet and optical observations in the next few years can further test this prediction and confirm the existence of a binary black hole in the relativistic regime.

Development of a statistical model for the determination of the probability of riverbank erosion in a Meditteranean river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, Emmanouil; Kourgialas, Nektarios; Karatzas, George; Giannakis, Georgios; Lilli, Maria; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Riverbank erosion affects the river morphology and the local habitat and results in riparian land loss, damage to property and infrastructures, ultimately weakening flood defences. An important issue concerning riverbank erosion is the identification of the areas vulnerable to erosion, as it allows for predicting changes and assists with stream management and restoration. One way to predict the vulnerable to erosion areas is to determine the erosion probability by identifying the underlying relations between riverbank erosion and the geomorphological and/or hydrological variables that prevent or stimulate erosion. A statistical model for evaluating the probability of erosion based on a series of independent local variables and by using logistic regression is developed in this work. The main variables affecting erosion are vegetation index (stability), the presence or absence of meanders, bank material (classification), stream power, bank height, river bank slope, riverbed slope, cross section width and water velocities (Luppi et al. 2009). In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used for predicting the outcome of a categorical dependent variable, e.g. binary response, based on one or more predictor variables (continuous or categorical). The probabilities of the possible outcomes are modelled as a function of independent variables using a logistic function. Logistic regression measures the relationship between a categorical dependent variable and, usually, one or several continuous independent variables by converting the dependent variable to probability scores. Then, a logistic regression is formed, which predicts success or failure of a given binary variable (e.g. 1 = "presence of erosion" and 0 = "no erosion") for any value of the independent variables. The regression coefficients are estimated by using maximum likelihood estimation. The erosion occurrence probability can be calculated in conjunction with the model deviance regarding the independent variables tested (Atkinson et al. 2003). The developed statistical model is applied to the Koiliaris River Basin in the island of Crete, Greece. The aim is to determine the probability of erosion along the Koiliaris' riverbanks considering a series of independent geomorphological and/or hydrological variables. Data for the river bank slope and for the river cross section width are available at ten locations along the river. The riverbank has indications of erosion at six of the ten locations while four has remained stable. Based on a recent work, measurements for the two independent variables and data regarding bank stability are available at eight different locations along the river. These locations were used as validation points for the proposed statistical model. The results show a very close agreement between the observed erosion indications and the statistical model as the probability of erosion was accurately predicted at seven out of the eight locations. The next step is to apply the model at more locations along the riverbanks. In November 2013, stakes were inserted at selected locations in order to be able to identify the presence or absence of erosion after the winter period. In April 2014 the presence or absence of erosion will be identified and the model results will be compared to the field data. Our intent is to extend the model by increasing the number of independent variables in order to indentify the key factors favouring erosion along the Koiliaris River. We aim at developing an easy to use statistical tool that will provide a quantified measure of the erosion probability along the riverbanks, which could consequently be used to prevent erosion and flooding events. Atkinson, P. M., German, S. E., Sear, D. A. and Clark, M. J. 2003. Exploring the relations between riverbank erosion and geomorphological controls using geographically weighted logistic regression. Geographical Analysis, 35 (1), 58-82. Luppi, L., Rinaldi, M., Teruggi, L. B., Darby, S. E. and Nardi, L. 2009. Monitoring and numerical modelling of riverbank erosion processes: A case study along the Cecina River (central Italy). Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 34 (4), 530-546. Acknowledgements This work is part of an on-going THALES project (CYBERSENSORS - High Frequency Monitoring System for Integrated Water Resources Management of Rivers). The project has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: THALES. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

No-signaling quantum key distribution: solution by linear programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Won-Young; Bae, Joonwoo; Killoran, Nathan

2015-02-01

We outline a straightforward approach for obtaining a secret key rate using only no-signaling constraints and linear programming. Assuming an individual attack, we consider all possible joint probabilities. Initially, we study only the case where Eve has binary outcomes, and we impose constraints due to the no-signaling principle and given measurement outcomes. Within the remaining space of joint probabilities, by using linear programming, we get bound on the probability of Eve correctly guessing Bob's bit. We then make use of an inequality that relates this guessing probability to the mutual information between Bob and a more general Eve, who is not binary-restricted. Putting our computed bound together with the Csiszár-Körner formula, we obtain a positive key generation rate. The optimal value of this rate agrees with known results, but was calculated in a more straightforward way, offering the potential of generalization to different scenarios.

Male partner attendance at antenatal care and adherence to antenatal care guidelines: secondary analysis of 2011 Ethiopian demographic and health survey data.

PubMed

Forbes, Faye; Wynter, Karen; Wade, Catherine; Zeleke, Berihun M; Fisher, Jane

2018-05-09

Complications during pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period present a significant and complex public health problem in low income countries such as Ethiopia. One strategy endorsed by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to improve maternal and child health outcomes is to encourage male partner involvement in pregnancy care. This research aimed to explore the relationships between 1) male attendance at antenatal care and 2) socio-economic and women's empowerment factors and adherence to focused antenatal care guidelines among women receiving care in Ethiopia. Secondary analysis of 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. A sub-sample of couples with a child aged 0-2 years old, for whom women attended at least one antenatal care (ANC) appointment was selected. Predictor variables on socio-economic position, demographic and women's empowerment factors, and male attendance at antenatal care were identified. Six outcome variables were constructed to indicate whether or not women: commenced ANC in the first trimester, attended at least four ANC appointments, received a urine test, received a blood test, were counselled on potential complications during pregnancy and met these focused antenatal care guidelines. Binary logistic regression was performed to estimate the relationship between the predictor and outcome variables. After controlling for other factors, women whose partners attended ANC were significantly more likely to receive urine and blood tests and be counselled about pregnancy complications compared to women who attended alone. Male attendance was not associated with women commencing care in the first trimester or attending at least four appointments. Although more women whose male partners had attended appointments received all recommended components of ANC than those who attended alone, this association was not significant. The results revealed some benefits and did not detect harms from including male partners in focused antenatal care. Including men may require changes to maternal healthcare systems and training of healthcare workers, to adopt 'father inclusive' practices. Given the limited research in this area, large population studies including the DHS routinely carried out in Ethiopia could enhance knowledge by including more detailed indicators of male involvement in pregnancy, maternal and child healthcare and early child development.

Performance comparison among the major healthcare financing systems in six cities of the Pearl River Delta region, mainland China.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Wang, Harry H X; Wong, Samuel Y S; Wei, Xiaolin; Yang, Nan; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Li, Haitao; Gao, Yang; Li, Donald K T; Tang, Jinling; Wang, Jiaji; Griffiths, Sian M

2012-01-01

The healthcare system of mainland China is undergoing drastic reform and the optimal models for healthcare financing for provision of primary care will need to be identified. This study compared the performance indicators of the community health centres (CHCs) under different healthcare financing systems in the six cities of the Pearl River Delta region. Approximately 300 hypertensive patients were randomly recruited from the computerized chronic disease management records provided by one CHC in each of the six cities in 2011 using a multi-stage cluster random sampling method. The major outcome measures included the treatment rate of hypertension, defined as prescription of ≥ one antihypertensive agent; and the control rate of hypertension, defined as systolic blood pressure levels <140 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure levels <90 mmHg in patients without diabetes mellitus, or <130/80 mmHg among patients with concomitant diabetes. Binary logistic regression analyses were conducted with these two measures as outcome variables, respectively, controlling for patients' socio-demographic variables. The financing system (Hospital- vs. Government- vs. private-funded) was the independent variable tested for association with the outcomes. From 1,830 patients with an average age of 65.9 years (SD 12.8), the overall treatment and control rates were 75.4% and 20.2%, respectively. When compared with hospital-funded CHCs, patients seen in the Government-funded (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.462, 95% C.I. 0.325-0.656) and private-funded CHCs (AOR 0.031, 95% C.I. 0.019-0.052) were significantly less likely to be prescribed antihypertensive medication. However, the Government-funded CHC was more likely to have optimal BP control (AOR 1.628, 95% C.I. 1.157-2.291) whilst the privately-funded CHC was less likely to achieve BP control (AOR 0.146, 95% C.I. 0.069-0.310), irrespective of whether antihypertensive drugs were prescribed. Privately-funded CHCs had the lowest rates of BP treatment and control due to a variety of potential factors as discussed.

Synergistic effect of age and body mass index on mortality and morbidity in general surgery.

PubMed

Yanquez, Federico J; Clements, John M; Grauf, Dawn; Merchant, Aziz M

2013-09-01

The elderly population (aged 65 y and older) is expected to be the dominant age group in the United States by 2030. In addition, the prevalence of obesity in the United States is growing exponentially. Obese elderly patients are increasingly undergoing elective or emergent general surgery. There are few, if any, studies highlighting the combined effect of age and body mass index (BMI) on surgical outcomes. We hypothesize that increasing age and BMI synergistically impact morbidity and mortality in general surgery. We collected individual-level, de-identified patient data from the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative. Subjects underwent general surgery with general anesthetic, were >18 y, and had a BMI between 19 and 60. Primary and secondary outcomes were 30-d "Any morbidity" and mortality (from wound, respiratory, genitourinary, central nervous system, and cardiac systems), respectively. Preoperative risk variables included diabetes, dialysis, steroid use, cardiac risk, wound classification, American Society of Anesthesiology class, emergent cases, and 13 other variables. We conducted binary logistic regression models for 30-d morbidity and mortality to determine independent effects of age, BMI, interaction between both age and BMI, and a saturated model for all independent variables. We identified 149,853 patients. The average age was 54.6 y, and the average BMI was 30.9. Overall 30-d mortality was 2%, and morbidity was 6.7%. Age was a positive predictor for mortality and morbidity, and BMI was negatively associated with mortality and not significantly associated with morbidity. Age combined with higher BMI was positively associated with morbidity and mortality when the higher age groups were analyzed. Saturated models revealed age and American Society of Anesthesiology class as highest predictors of poor outcomes. Although BMI itself was not a major independent factor predicting 30-d major morbidity or mortality, the morbidly obese, elderly (>50 and 70 y, respectively) subgroup may have an increased morbidity and mortality after general surgery. This information, along with patient-specific factors and their comorbidities, may allow us to better take care of our patients perioperatively and better inform our patients about their risk of surgical procedures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Correlates of screen time among 8-19-year-old students in China.

PubMed

Ye, Sunyue; Chen, Lijian; Wang, Qineng; Li, Qinggong

2018-04-10

Previous studies have shown that prolonged time spent on screen-based sedentary behavior was significantly associated with lower health status in children, independent of physical activity levels. The study aimed to explore the individual and environmental correlates of screen time (ST) among 8-19-year-old students in China. The study surveyed ST using a self-administered questionnaire in Chinese students aged 8-19 years; 1063 participants were included in the final analysis. Individual and environmental correlates of ST were assessed using a mixed-effects model (for continuous outcome variables) and multiple logistic regression model (for binary outcome variables). Prolonged ST was observed in 14.7% of boys and 8.9% of girls. Of the ST, weekend and mobile phone/tablet use represented 80% and 40%, respectively. A positive relationship was observed between media accessibility and ST in both boys and girls (p < 0.05), whereas the presence of parents/others while using screens was a negative factor for longer ST (p < 0.05). Among the assessed correlates, access to a television (TV) in students' bedrooms was associated with prolonged total and weekend ST (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively). However, spending time on a mobile phone/tablet or a computer rather than viewing a TV, along with increased media accessibility, increased ST. These results indicate that greater media accessibility was positively associated and the presence of parents/others was negatively associated with prolonged ST in both Chinese boys and girls. Development of new and effective strategies against prolonged ST are required, especially for small screen device-based ST on weekends.

Measuring Networking as an Outcome Variable in Undergraduate Research Experiences.

PubMed

Hanauer, David I; Hatfull, Graham

2015-01-01

The aim of this paper is to propose, present, and validate a simple survey instrument to measure student conversational networking. The tool consists of five items that cover personal and professional social networks, and its basic principle is the self-reporting of degrees of conversation, with a range of specific discussion partners. The networking instrument was validated in three studies. The basic psychometric characteristics of the scales were established by conducting a factor analysis and evaluating internal consistency using Cronbach's alpha. The second study used a known-groups comparison and involved comparing outcomes for networking scales between two different undergraduate laboratory courses (one involving a specific effort to enhance networking). The final study looked at potential relationships between specific networking items and the established psychosocial variable of project ownership through a series of binary logistic regressions. Overall, the data from the three studies indicate that the networking scales have high internal consistency (α = 0.88), consist of a unitary dimension, can significantly differentiate between research experiences with low and high networking designs, and are related to project ownership scales. The ramifications of the networking instrument for student retention, the enhancement of public scientific literacy, and the differentiation of laboratory courses are discussed. © 2015 D. I. Hanauer and G. Hatfull. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2015 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Compressibility of binary powder formulations: investigation and evaluation with compaction equations.

PubMed

Gentis, Nicolaos D; Betz, Gabriele

2012-02-01

The purpose of this work was to investigate and evaluate the powder compressibility of binary mixtures containing a well-compressible compound (microcrystalline cellulose) and a brittle active drug (paracetamol and mefenamic acid) and its progression after a drug load increase. Drug concentration range was 0%-100% (m/m) with 10% intervals. The powder formulations were compacted to several relative densities with the Zwick material tester. The compaction force and tensile strength were fitted to several mathematical models that give representative factors for the powder compressibility. The factors k and C (Heckel and modified Heckel equation) showed mostly a nonlinear correlation with increasing drug load. The biggest drop in both factors occurred at far regions and drug load ranges. This outcome is crucial because in binary mixtures the drug load regions with higher changeover of plotted factors could be a hint for an existing percolation threshold. The susceptibility value (Leuenberger equation) showed varying values for each formulation without the expected trend of decrease for higher drug loads. The outcomes of this study showed the main challenges for good formulation design. Thus, we conclude that such mathematical plots are mandatory for a scientific evaluation and prediction of the powder compaction process. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Studies of an x ray selected sample of cataclysmic variables. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silber, Andrew D.

1986-01-01

Just prior to the thesis research, an all-sky survey in hard x rays with the HEAO-1 satellite and further observations in the optical resulted in a catalog of about 700 x-ray sources with known optical counterparts. This sample includes 43 cataclysmic variables, which are binaries consisting of a detached white-dwarf and a Roche lobe filling companion star. This thesis consists of studies of the x-ray selected sample of catalcysmic variables.

Predictors of non-use of intrauterine contraception among women aged 18-49 years in a general practice setting in the UK.

PubMed

Walker, Susan H; Newton, Victoria L; Hoggart, Lesley; Parker, Mike J

2016-01-01

Our research examined the barriers to the uptake of intrauterine contraception (IUC) by women in a general practice (GP) setting in the UK. This study reports predictors of non-use of IUC in this context. We used a mixed method Qual/Quant approach in which the initial qualitative research provides a framework for subsequent larger quantitative surveys. Utilizing findings derived from 30 qualitative interviews, a quantitative survey was developed and distributed to a pragmatic sample of 1,195 women, aged 18-49 years, who were recruited through 32 participating GP practices in an area of England, UK. Outcome measures were percentage of attributes or responses in the sample and use or non-use of IUC. Results were analyzed using descriptive statistical analysis and binary logistic regression, using use/non-use as a binary response variable. Attitudinal variables, which were the strongest predictors of non-use of IUC, were an adverse opinion on long-acting aspect of IUC (odds ratio [OR]=8.34), disliking the thought of IUC inside the body (OR=3.138), concerns about IUC causing difficulties becoming pregnant in the future (OR=2.587), concerns about womb damage (OR=2.224), having heard adverse opinions about levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (Mirena ® ) (OR=2.551), having an adverse opinion of having light, irregular periods (OR=2.382) and, having an adverse opinion of having no periods (OR=2.018). Concerns about the long-acting nature of IUC and persisting concerns about the safety of IUC may act as barriers to its use. Information for women, tailored to specifically address these concerns, is needed. Clinicians should provide more reassurance and information to potential users of IUC to increase their confidence about the possibility of removing IUC early or on request. They should also specifically seek to alleviate concerns about internal damage, damage to the womb, or damage to future fertility from using the methods.

Bayesian informative dropout model for longitudinal binary data with random effects using conditional and joint modeling approaches.

PubMed

Chan, Jennifer S K

2016-05-01

Dropouts are common in longitudinal study. If the dropout probability depends on the missing observations at or after dropout, this type of dropout is called informative (or nonignorable) dropout (ID). Failure to accommodate such dropout mechanism into the model will bias the parameter estimates. We propose a conditional autoregressive model for longitudinal binary data with an ID model such that the probabilities of positive outcomes as well as the drop-out indicator in each occasion are logit linear in some covariates and outcomes. This model adopting a marginal model for outcomes and a conditional model for dropouts is called a selection model. To allow for the heterogeneity and clustering effects, the outcome model is extended to incorporate mixture and random effects. Lastly, the model is further extended to a novel model that models the outcome and dropout jointly such that their dependency is formulated through an odds ratio function. Parameters are estimated by a Bayesian approach implemented using the user-friendly Bayesian software WinBUGS. A methadone clinic dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed models. Result shows that the treatment time effect is still significant but weaker after allowing for an ID process in the data. Finally the effect of drop-out on parameter estimates is evaluated through simulation studies. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2018-01-01

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach, and has several attractive features compared to the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, since the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. PMID:26303591

Stratified exact tests for the weak causal null hypothesis in randomized trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka

2017-09-01

Fisher's exact test is commonly used to compare two groups when the outcome is binary in randomized trials. In the context of causal inference, this test explores the sharp causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal effect of treatment is the same for all subjects), but not the weak causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal risks are the same in the two groups). Therefore, in general, rejection of the null hypothesis by Fisher's exact test does not mean that the causal risk difference is not zero. Recently, Chiba (Journal of Biometrics and Biostatistics 2015; 6: 244) developed a new exact test for the weak causal null hypothesis when the outcome is binary in randomized trials; the new test is not based on any large sample theory and does not require any assumption. In this paper, we extend the new test; we create a version of the test applicable to a stratified analysis. The stratified exact test that we propose is general in nature and can be used in several approaches toward the estimation of treatment effects after adjusting for stratification factors. The stratified Fisher's exact test of Jung (Biometrical Journal 2014; 56: 129-140) tests the sharp causal null hypothesis. This test applies a crude estimator of the treatment effect and can be regarded as a special case of our proposed exact test. Our proposed stratified exact test can be straightforwardly extended to analysis of noninferiority trials and to construct the associated confidence interval. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The classical nova hibernation scenario: a definitive confirmation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaensicke, Boris

2017-08-01

The detached white dwarf plus M-dwarf binary LL Eri exhibits truly unique behaviour within this class of compact binaries. As part of a COS snapshot survey, we detected large-amplitude variability in the ultraviolet flux of the white dwarf, confirmed by extensive ground-based blue-band photometry. The three independent frequencies detected in the light curves clearly identify this variability as non-radial pulsations of the white dwarf. However, with a hydrogen atmosphere and Teff=17200K, this white dwarf is nearly 5000K hotter than the canonical instability strip.The COS spectrum, albeit noisy, reveals that the metal lines typically detected in this class of stars, arising from material captured from the M-dwarf wind, are very broad. If interpreted as rotationally broadened, they imply a spin of only a few minutes. Such a short period could be explained by a past phase of intense accretion of mass and angular momentum. It has been postulated for over thirty years that classical nova eruptions on the white dwarf could cause such switching from a semi-detached to a detached binary configuration, during which the system hibernates - yet, to date no hibernating nova has been identified. However, the broad lines could also be due to pulsation-driven surface velocity fields, in which case the nature and past evolution of LL Eri would not be easily linked to any exisiting scenario for compact binary evolution. We propose to obtain a deeper COS observations to unambiguosly determine whether the cause of the observed line broadening is due to rapid rotation, which would unequivocally confirm the hibernation scenario.

A Search for Black Holes and Neutron Stars in the Kepler Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orosz, Jerome; Short, Donald; Welsh, William; Windmiller, Gur; Dabney, David

2018-01-01

Black holes and neutron stars represent the final evolutionary stages of the most massive stars. In addition to their use as probes into the evolution of massive stars, black holes and neutron stars are ideal laboratories to test General Relativity in the strong field limit. The number of neutron stars and black holes in the Milky Way is not precisely known, but there are an estimated one billion neutron stars in the galaxy based on the observed numbers of radio pulsars. The number of black holes is about 100 million, based on the behavior of the Initial Mass Function at high stellar masses.All of the known steller-mass black holes (and a fair number of neutron stars) are in ``X-ray binaries'' that were discovered because of their luminous X-ray emission. The requirement to be in an X-ray-emitting binary places a strong observational bias on the discovery of stellar-mass black holes. Thus the 21 known black hole binaries represent only the very uppermost tip of the population iceberg.We have conducted an optical survey using Kepler data designed to uncover black holes and neutron stars in both ``quiescent'' X-ray binaries and ``pre-contact'' X-ray binaries. We discuss how the search was conducted, including how potentially interesting light curves were classified and the how variability types were identified. Although we did not find any convincing candidate neutron star or black hole systems, we did find a few noteworthy binary systems, including two binaries that contain low-mass stars with unusually low albedos.

SALT HRS discovery of a long-period double-degenerate binary in the planetary nebula NGC 1360

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miszalski, B.; Manick, R.; Mikołajewska, J.; Iłkiewicz, K.; Kamath, D.; Van Winckel, H.

2018-01-01

Whether planetary nebulae (PNe) are predominantly the product of binary stellar evolution as some population synthesis models (PSM) suggest remains an open question. Around 50 short-period binary central stars (P ∼ 1 d) are known, but with only four with measured orbital periods over 10 d, our knowledge is severely incomplete. Here we report on the first discovery from a systematic Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) High Resolution Spectrograph (HRS) survey for long-period binary central stars. We find a 142 d orbital period from radial velocities of the central star of NGC 1360, HIP 16566. NGC 1360 appears to be the product of common-envelope (CE) evolution, with nebula features similar to post-CE PNe, albeit with an orbital period considerably longer than expected to be typical of post-CE PSM. The most striking feature is a newly identified ring of candidate low-ionization structures. Previous spatiokinematic modelling of the nebula gives a nebula inclination of 30° ± 10°, and assuming the binary nucleus is coplanar with the nebula, multiwavelength observations best fit a more massive, evolved white dwarf (WD) companion. A WD companion in a 142 d orbit is not the focus of many PSM, making NGC 1360 a valuable system with which to improve future PSM work. HIP 16566 is amongst many central stars in which large radial velocity variability was found by low-resolution surveys. The discovery of its binary nature may indicate long-period binaries may be more common than PSM models predict.

Discovery and characterization of 3000+ main-sequence binaries from APOGEE spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Badry, Kareem; Ting, Yuan-Sen; Rix, Hans-Walter; Quataert, Eliot; Weisz, Daniel R.; Cargile, Phillip; Conroy, Charlie; Hogg, David W.; Bergemann, Maria; Liu, Chao

2018-05-01

We develop a data-driven spectral model for identifying and characterizing spatially unresolved multiple-star systems and apply it to APOGEE DR13 spectra of main-sequence stars. Binaries and triples are identified as targets whose spectra can be significantly better fit by a superposition of two or three model spectra, drawn from the same isochrone, than any single-star model. From an initial sample of ˜20 000 main-sequence targets, we identify ˜2500 binaries in which both the primary and secondary stars contribute detectably to the spectrum, simultaneously fitting for the velocities and stellar parameters of both components. We additionally identify and fit ˜200 triple systems, as well as ˜700 velocity-variable systems in which the secondary does not contribute detectably to the spectrum. Our model simplifies the process of simultaneously fitting single- or multi-epoch spectra with composite models and does not depend on a velocity offset between the two components of a binary, making it sensitive to traditionally undetectable systems with periods of hundreds or thousands of years. In agreement with conventional expectations, almost all the spectrally identified binaries with measured parallaxes fall above the main sequence in the colour-magnitude diagram. We find excellent agreement between spectrally and dynamically inferred mass ratios for the ˜600 binaries in which a dynamical mass ratio can be measured from multi-epoch radial velocities. We obtain full orbital solutions for 64 systems, including 14 close binaries within hierarchical triples. We make available catalogues of stellar parameters, abundances, mass ratios, and orbital parameters.

Exploring quantum computing application to satellite data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, S.; Zhang, S. Q.

2015-12-01

This is an exploring work on potential application of quantum computing to a scientific data optimization problem. On classical computational platforms, the physical domain of a satellite data assimilation problem is represented by a discrete variable transform, and classical minimization algorithms are employed to find optimal solution of the analysis cost function. The computation becomes intensive and time-consuming when the problem involves large number of variables and data. The new quantum computer opens a very different approach both in conceptual programming and in hardware architecture for solving optimization problem. In order to explore if we can utilize the quantum computing machine architecture, we formulate a satellite data assimilation experimental case in the form of quadratic programming optimization problem. We find a transformation of the problem to map it into Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) framework. Binary Wavelet Transform (BWT) will be applied to the data assimilation variables for its invertible decomposition and all calculations in BWT are performed by Boolean operations. The transformed problem will be experimented as to solve for a solution of QUBO instances defined on Chimera graphs of the quantum computer.

INTEGRAL and XMM-Newton observations of the puzzling binary system LSI +61 303

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernyakova, Masha; Neronov, A.; Walter, R.

LSI +61° 303 is one of the few X-ray binaries with Be star companion from which both radio and high-energy gamma-ray emission have been observed. We present XMM-Newton and INTE- GRAL observations which reveal variability of the X-ray spectral index of the system. The X-ray spectrum is hard (photon index Γ ≃ 1.5) during the orbital phases of both high and low X-ray flux. However, the spectrum softens at the moment of transition from high to low X-ray state. The spectrum of the system in the hard X-ray band does not reveal the presence of a cut-off (or, at least a spectral break) at 10-60 keV energies, expected if the compact object is an accreting neu- tron star. The observed spectrum and spectral variability can be explained if the compact object in the system is a rotation powered pulsar. In this case the recently found X-ray spectral variability of the system on the several kiloseconds time scale can be explained by the clumpy structure of the Be star disk.

Optical Variability Signatures from Massive Black Hole Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasliwal, Vishal P.; Frank, Koby Alexander; Lidz, Adam

2017-01-01

The hierarchical merging of dark matter halos and their associated galaxies should lead to a population of supermassive black hole binaries (MBHBs). We consider plausible optical variability signatures from MBHBs at sub-parsec separations and search for these using data from the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (CRTS). Specifically, we model the impact of relativistic Doppler beaming on the accretion disk emission from the less massive, secondary black hole. We explore whether this Doppler modulation may be separated from other sources of stochastic variability in the accretion flow around the MBHBs, which we describe as a damped random walk (DRW). In the simple case of a circular orbit, relativistic beaming leads to a series of broad peaks — located at multiples of the orbital frequency — in the fluctuation power spectrum. We extend our analysis to the case of elliptical orbits and discuss the effect of beaming on the flux power spectrum and auto-correlation function using simulations. We present a code to model an observed light curve as a stochastic DRW-type time series modulated by relativistic beaming and apply the code to CRTS data.

The Causal Connection Between Disc and Power-Law Variability in Hard State Black Hole X-Ray Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uttley, P.; Wilkinson, T.; Cassatella, P.; Wilms, J.; Pottschimdt, K.; Hanke, M.; Boeck, M.

2010-01-01

We use the XMM-Newton EPIC-pn instrument in timing mode to extend spectral time-lag studies of hard state black hole X-ray binaries into the soft X-ray band. \\Ve show that variations of the disc blackbody emission substantially lead variations in the power-law emission, by tenths of a second on variability time-scales of seconds or longer. The large lags cannot be explained by Compton scattering but are consistent with time-delays due to viscous propagation of mass accretion fluctuations in the disc. However, on time-scales less than a second the disc lags the power-law variations by a few ms, consistent with the disc variations being dominated by X-ray heating by the power-law, with the short lag corresponding to the light-travel time between the power-law emitting region and the disc. Our results indicate that instabilities in the accretion disc are responsible for continuum variability on time-scales of seconds or longer and probably also on shorter time-scales.

Highlights of Odessa Branch of AN in 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andronov, I. L.

2017-12-01

An annual report with a list of publications. Our group works on the variable star research within the international campaign "Inter-Longitude Astronomy" (ILA) based on temporarily working groups in collaboration with Poland, Slovakia, Korea, USA and other countries. A recent self-review on highlights was published in 2017. Our group continues the scientific school of Prof. Vladymir P. Tsesevich (1907 - 1983). Another project we participate is "AstroInformatics". The unprecedented photo-polarimetric monitoring of a group of AM Her - type magnetic cataclysmic variable stars was carried out since 1989 (photometry in our group - since 1978). A photometric monitoring of the intermediate polars (MU Cam, V1343 Her, V2306 Cyg et al.) was continued to study rotational evolution of magnetic white dwarfs. The super-low luminosity state was discovered in the outbursting intermediate polar = magnetic dwarf nova DO Dra. Previously typical low state was some times interrupted by outbursts, which are narrower than usual dwarf nova outbursts. Once there were detected TPO - "Transient Periodic Oscillations". The orbital and quasi-periodic variability was recently studied. Such super-low states are characteristic for nova-like variables (e.g. MV Lyr, TT Ari) or intermediate polars, but unusual for the dwarf novae. The electronic "Catalogue of Characteristics and Atlas of the Light Curves of Newly-Discovered Eclipsing Binary Stars" was compiled and is being prepared for publication. The software NAV ("New Algol Variable") with specially developed algorithms was used. It allows to determine the begin and end of the eclipses even in EB and EW - type stars, whereas the current classification (GCVS, VSX) claims that the begin and end of eclipses only in the EA - type objects. The further improvements of the NAV algorithm were comparatively studied. The "Wall-Supported Polynomial" (WSP) algoritms were implemented in the software MAVKA for statistically optimal modeling of flat eclipses and exoplanet transitions. MAVKA was used for studies of effects of the mass transfer and presence of the third components in close binary stellar systems and analysis of the poorly studied eclipsing binary 2MASS J20355082+5242136. Atlas of the Light Curves and Phase Plane Portraits of Selected Long-Period Variables was compiled.

PG 1316+678: A young pre-cataclysmic binary with weak reflection effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimansky, V. V.; Borisov, N. V.; Bikmaev, I. F.; Sakhibullin, N. A.; Shimanskaya, N. N.; Spiridonova, O. I.; Irtuganov, E. N.

2013-03-01

The PG 1316+678 star is classified as a pre-cataclysmic binary, as is evidenced by its photometric and spectroscopic observations. Its orbital period is determined to be P orb = 3.3803d, which coincides with the photometric period. The intensities of the emission HI and HeI lines are shown to vary synchronously with the brightness of the object (Δ m V = 0.065 m , Δ m R = 0.08 m ). These variations arise as the UV radiation from the DAO white dwarf is reflected from the surface of the cold companion. The parameters of the binary are estimated and the time of its evolution after the common-envelope phase is determined to be t ≈ 240 000 years. Thus, PG 1316+678 is a young pre-cataclysmic NN Ser variable with the smallest known photometric reflection effect.

Sigma observations of the low mass X-ray binaries of the galactic bulge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldwurm, A.; Denis, M.; Paul, J.; Faisse, S.; Roques, J. P.; Bouchet, L.; Vedrenne, G.; Mandrou, P.; Sunyaev, R.; Churazov, E.

1995-01-01

The soft gamma-ray telescope (35-1300 keV) SIGMA aboard the high energy GRANAT space observatory has been monitoring the Galactic Bulge region for more than 2000 h of effective time since March 1990. In the resulting average 35-75 keV image we detected ten sources at a level of greater than 5 standard deviations, 6 of which can be identified with low mass X-ray binaries (LMXB). Among them, one is the 1993 X-ray nova in Ophiuchus (GRS 1726-249), one is an X-ray pulsar (GX 1+4), two are associated with X-ray bursters (GX 354-0 and A 1742-294) and two with bursting X-ray binaries in the globular clusters Terzan 2 and Terzan 1. Their spectral and long term variability behavior as measured by SIGMMA are presented and discussed.

The EPOCH Project. I. Periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 LMC database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dae-Won; Protopapas, Pavlos; Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.; Byun, Yong-Ik; Chang, Seo-Won; Marquette, Jean-Baptiste; Shin, Min-Su

2014-06-01

The EPOCH (EROS-2 periodic variable star classification using machine learning) project aims to detect periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 light curve database. In this paper, we present the first result of the classification of periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 LMC database. To classify these variables, we first built a training set by compiling known variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud area from the OGLE and MACHO surveys. We crossmatched these variables with the EROS-2 sources and extracted 22 variability features from 28 392 light curves of the corresponding EROS-2 sources. We then used the random forest method to classify the EROS-2 sources in the training set. We designed the model to separate not only δ Scuti stars, RR Lyraes, Cepheids, eclipsing binaries, and long-period variables, the superclasses, but also their subclasses, such as RRab, RRc, RRd, and RRe for RR Lyraes, and similarly for the other variable types. The model trained using only the superclasses shows 99% recall and precision, while the model trained on all subclasses shows 87% recall and precision. We applied the trained model to the entire EROS-2 LMC database, which contains about 29 million sources, and found 117 234 periodic variable candidates. Out of these 117 234 periodic variables, 55 285 have not been discovered by either OGLE or MACHO variability studies. This set comprises 1906 δ Scuti stars, 6607 RR Lyraes, 638 Cepheids, 178 Type II Cepheids, 34 562 eclipsing binaries, and 11 394 long-period variables. catalog of these EROS-2 LMC periodic variable stars is available at http://stardb.yonsei.ac.kr and at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/566/A43

Four New Binary Stars in the Field of CL Aurigae. II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Chun-Hwey; Lee, Jae Woo; Duck, Hyun Kim; Andronov, Ivan L.

2010-12-01

We report on a discovery of four new variable stars (USNO-B1.0 1234-0103195, 1235- 0097170, 1236-0100293 and 1236-0100092) in the field of CL Aur. The stars are classified as eclipsing binary stars with orbital periods of 0.5137413(23) (EW type), 0.8698365(26) (EA) and 4.0055842(40) (EA with a significant orbital eccentricity), respectively. The fourth star (USNO-B1.0 1236-0100092) showed only one partial ascending branch of the light curves, although 22 nights were covered at the 61-cm telescope at the Sobaeksan Optical Astronomy Observatory (SOAO) in Korea. Fourteen minima timings for these stars are published separately. In an addition to the original discovery paper (Kim et al. 2010), we discuss methodological problems and present results of mathematical modeling of the light curves using other methods, i.e. trigonometric polynomial fits and the newly developed fit "NAV" ("New Algol Variable").

A PSF-based approach to Kepler/K2 data - II. Exoplanet candidates in Praesepe (M 44)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libralato, M.; Nardiello, D.; Bedin, L. R.; Borsato, L.; Granata, V.; Malavolta, L.; Piotto, G.; Ochner, P.; Cunial, A.; Nascimbeni, V.

2016-12-01

In this work, we keep pushing K2 data to a high photometric precision, close to that of the Kepler main mission, using a point-spread function (PSF)-based, neighbour-subtraction technique, which also overcome the dilution effects in crowded environments. We analyse the open cluster M 44 (NGC 2632), observed during the K2 Campaign 5, and extract light curves of stars imaged on module 14, where most of the cluster lies. We present two candidate exoplanets hosted by cluster members and five by field stars. As a by-product of our investigation, we find 1680 eclipsing binaries and variable stars, 1071 of which are new discoveries. Among them, we report the presence of a heartbeat binary star. Together with this work, we release to the community a catalogue with the variable stars and the candidate exoplanets found, as well as all our raw and detrended light curves.

Anti-correlated X-ray and Radio Variability in the Transitional Millisecond Pulsar PSR J1023+0038

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, Slavko; Deller, Adam; Miller-Jones, James; Archibald, Anne; Hessels, Jason W. T.; Jaodand, Amruta; Patruno, Alessandro; Bassa, Cees; D'Angelo, Caroline

2018-01-01

The PSR J1023+0038 binary system hosts a 1.69-ms neutron star and a low-mass, main-sequence-like star. The system underwent a transformation from a rotation-powered to a low-luminosity accreting state in 2013 June, in which it has remained since. We present an unprecedented set of strictly simultaneous Chandra X-ray Observatory and Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array observations, which for the first time reveal a highly reproducible, anti-correlated variability pattern. Rapid declines in X-ray flux are always accompanied by a radio brightening with duration that closely matches the low X-ray flux mode intervals. We discuss these findings in the context of accretion and jet outflow physics and their implications for using the radio/X-ray luminosity plane to distinguish low-luminosity candidate black hole binary systems from accreting transitional millisecond pulsars.

Reinstating the M31 X-Ray System RX J0042.3+4115 as a Black Hole X-Ray Binary and Compelling Evidence for an Extended Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, R.; Garcia, M. R.; Murray, S. S.

2011-12-01

The M31 X-ray source RX J0042.3+4115 was originally identified as a black hole (BH) binary because it displayed characteristic low-state variability at conspicuously high luminosities; unfortunately, this variability was later found to be artificial. However, analysis of 84 Chandra ACIS observations, a Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS)/WFC observation, and a 60 ks XMM-Newton observation has supplied new evidence that RX J0042.3+4115 is indeed a BH binary. The brightest optical star within 3σ of the position of RXJ0042.3+4115 had a F435W (~B) magnitude of 25.4 ± 0.2; M B > -0.4, hence we find a low-mass donor likely. RX J0042.3+4115 was persistently bright over ~12 years. Spectral fits revealed characteristic BH binary states: a low/hard state at 2.08 ± 0.08 × 1038 erg s-1 and a steep power-law state at 2.41 ± 0.05 × 1038 erg s-1 (0.3-10 keV). The high-luminosity low state suggests a ~20 M ⊙ primary; this is high, but within the range of known stellar BH masses. The inner disk temperature during the steep power-law state is 2.24 ± 0.15 keV, high but strikingly similar to that of GRS 1915+105, the only known Galactic BH binary with a low-mass donor to be persistently bright. Therefore, RX J0042.3+4115 may be an analog for GRS 1915+105; however, other mechanisms may account for its behavior. We find compelling evidence for an extended corona during the steep power-law state, because compact corona models where the seed photons for Comptonization are tied to the inner disk temperature are rejected.

Probability estimation with machine learning methods for dichotomous and multicategory outcome: theory.

PubMed

Kruppa, Jochen; Liu, Yufeng; Biau, Gérard; Kohler, Michael; König, Inke R; Malley, James D; Ziegler, Andreas

2014-07-01

Probability estimation for binary and multicategory outcome using logistic and multinomial logistic regression has a long-standing tradition in biostatistics. However, biases may occur if the model is misspecified. In contrast, outcome probabilities for individuals can be estimated consistently with machine learning approaches, including k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), bagged nearest neighbors (b-NN), random forests (RF), and support vector machines (SVM). Because machine learning methods are rarely used by applied biostatisticians, the primary goal of this paper is to explain the concept of probability estimation with these methods and to summarize recent theoretical findings. Probability estimation in k-NN, b-NN, and RF can be embedded into the class of nonparametric regression learning machines; therefore, we start with the construction of nonparametric regression estimates and review results on consistency and rates of convergence. In SVMs, outcome probabilities for individuals are estimated consistently by repeatedly solving classification problems. For SVMs we review classification problem and then dichotomous probability estimation. Next we extend the algorithms for estimating probabilities using k-NN, b-NN, and RF to multicategory outcomes and discuss approaches for the multicategory probability estimation problem using SVM. In simulation studies for dichotomous and multicategory dependent variables we demonstrate the general validity of the machine learning methods and compare it with logistic regression. However, each method fails in at least one simulation scenario. We conclude with a discussion of the failures and give recommendations for selecting and tuning the methods. Applications to real data and example code are provided in a companion article (doi:10.1002/bimj.201300077). © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.