A comparison of different ways of including baseline counts in negative binomial models for data from falls prevention trials.

PubMed

Zheng, Han; Kimber, Alan; Goodwin, Victoria A; Pickering, Ruth M

2018-01-01

A common design for a falls prevention trial is to assess falling at baseline, randomize participants into an intervention or control group, and ask them to record the number of falls they experience during a follow-up period of time. This paper addresses how best to include the baseline count in the analysis of the follow-up count of falls in negative binomial (NB) regression. We examine the performance of various approaches in simulated datasets where both counts are generated from a mixed Poisson distribution with shared random subject effect. Including the baseline count after log-transformation as a regressor in NB regression (NB-logged) or as an offset (NB-offset) resulted in greater power than including the untransformed baseline count (NB-unlogged). Cook and Wei's conditional negative binomial (CNB) model replicates the underlying process generating the data. In our motivating dataset, a statistically significant intervention effect resulted from the NB-logged, NB-offset, and CNB models, but not from NB-unlogged, and large, outlying baseline counts were overly influential in NB-unlogged but not in NB-logged. We conclude that there is little to lose by including the log-transformed baseline count in standard NB regression compared to CNB for moderate to larger sized datasets. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Time Series Analysis: Weather Factors, Human Migration and Malaria Cases in Endemic Area of Purworejo, Indonesia, 2005–2014

PubMed Central

REJEKI, Dwi Sarwani Sri; NURHAYATI, Nunung; AJI, Budi; MURHANDARWATI, E. Elsa Herdiana; KUSNANTO, Hari

2018-01-01

Background: Climatic and weather factors become important determinants of vector-borne diseases transmission like malaria. This study aimed to prove relationships between weather factors with considering human migration and previous case findings and malaria cases in endemic areas in Purworejo during 2005–2014. Methods: This study employed ecological time series analysis by using monthly data. The independent variables were the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation, human migration, and previous malaria cases, while the dependent variable was positive malaria cases. Three models of count data regression analysis i.e. Poisson model, quasi-Poisson model, and negative binomial model were applied to measure the relationship. The least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) value was also performed to find the best model. Negative binomial regression analysis was considered as the best model. Results: The model showed that humidity (lag 2), precipitation (lag 3), precipitation (lag 12), migration (lag1) and previous malaria cases (lag 12) had a significant relationship with malaria cases. Conclusion: Weather, migration and previous malaria cases factors need to be considered as prominent indicators for the increase of malaria case projection. PMID:29900134

Understanding logistic regression analysis.

PubMed

Sperandei, Sandro

2014-01-01

Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.

Campaign Strategies and Voter Approval of School Referenda: A Mixed Methods Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Paul A.; Ingle, William Kyle

2009-01-01

Drawing from state administrative data and surveys of superintendents in Ohio, this mixed methods study examined factors associated with voters' approval of local school levies. Utilizing binomial logistic regression, this study found that new levies and poverty rates were significantly associated with a decrease in the likelihood of passage.…

Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

PubMed

Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

2014-06-26

To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

Gaussian Process Regression Model in Spatial Logistic Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofro, A.; Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

Spatial analysis has developed very quickly in the last decade. One of the favorite approaches is based on the neighbourhood of the region. Unfortunately, there are some limitations such as difficulty in prediction. Therefore, we offer Gaussian process regression (GPR) to accommodate the issue. In this paper, we will focus on spatial modeling with GPR for binomial data with logit link function. The performance of the model will be investigated. We will discuss the inference of how to estimate the parameters and hyper-parameters and to predict as well. Furthermore, simulation studies will be explained in the last section.

Understanding poisson regression.

PubMed

Hayat, Matthew J; Higgins, Melinda

2014-04-01

Nurse investigators often collect study data in the form of counts. Traditional methods of data analysis have historically approached analysis of count data either as if the count data were continuous and normally distributed or with dichotomization of the counts into the categories of occurred or did not occur. These outdated methods for analyzing count data have been replaced with more appropriate statistical methods that make use of the Poisson probability distribution, which is useful for analyzing count data. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the Poisson distribution and its use in Poisson regression. Assumption violations for the standard Poisson regression model are addressed with alternative approaches, including addition of an overdispersion parameter or negative binomial regression. An illustrative example is presented with an application from the ENSPIRE study, and regression modeling of comorbidity data is included for illustrative purposes. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Binomial outcomes in dataset with some clusters of size two: can the dependence of twins be accounted for? A simulation study comparing the reliability of statistical methods based on a dataset of preterm infants.

PubMed

Sauzet, Odile; Peacock, Janet L

2017-07-20

The analysis of perinatal outcomes often involves datasets with some multiple births. These are datasets mostly formed of independent observations and a limited number of clusters of size two (twins) and maybe of size three or more. This non-independence needs to be accounted for in the statistical analysis. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we have previously investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of continuous outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Mixed models have been developed for binomial outcomes but very little is known about their reliability when only a limited number of small clusters are present. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of binomial outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Logistic models, several methods of estimation for the logistic random intercept models and generalised estimating equations were compared. The presence of even a small percentage of twins means that a logistic regression model will underestimate all parameters but a logistic random intercept model fails to estimate the correlation between siblings if the percentage of twins is too small and will provide similar estimates to logistic regression. The method which seems to provide the best balance between estimation of the standard error and the parameter for any percentage of twins is the generalised estimating equations. This study has shown that the number of covariates or the level two variance do not necessarily affect the performance of the various methods used to analyse datasets containing twins but when the percentage of small clusters is too small, mixed models cannot capture the dependence between siblings.

A Model Comparison for Count Data with a Positively Skewed Distribution with an Application to the Number of University Mathematics Courses Completed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liou, Pey-Yan

2009-01-01

The current study examines three regression models: OLS (ordinary least square) linear regression, Poisson regression, and negative binomial regression for analyzing count data. Simulation results show that the OLS regression model performed better than the others, since it did not produce more false statistically significant relationships than…

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2018-01-01

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach, and has several attractive features compared to the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, since the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. PMID:26303591

An empirical study of statistical properties of variance partition coefficients for multi-level logistic regression models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Ji; Gray, B.R.; Bates, D.M.

2008-01-01

Partitioning the variance of a response by design levels is challenging for binomial and other discrete outcomes. Goldstein (2003) proposed four definitions for variance partitioning coefficients (VPC) under a two-level logistic regression model. In this study, we explicitly derived formulae for multi-level logistic regression model and subsequently studied the distributional properties of the calculated VPCs. Using simulations and a vegetation dataset, we demonstrated associations between different VPC definitions, the importance of methods for estimating VPCs (by comparing VPC obtained using Laplace and penalized quasilikehood methods), and bivariate dependence between VPCs calculated at different levels. Such an empirical study lends an immediate support to wider applications of VPC in scientific data analysis.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2016-01-15

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach and has several attractive features compared with the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, because the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sickness absence and psychosocial job quality: an analysis from a longitudinal survey of working Australians, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Butterworth, Peter; Bentley, Rebecca; Kavanagh, Anne M; LaMontagne, Anthony D

2015-05-15

Sickness absence is associated with adverse health, organizational, and societal outcomes. Using data from a longitudinal cohort study of working Australians (the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey), we examined the relationship between changes in individuals' overall psychosocial job quality and variation in sickness absence. The outcome variables were paid sickness absence (yes/no) and number of days of paid sickness absence in the past year (2005-2012). The main exposure variable was psychosocial job quality, measured using a psychosocial job quality index (levels of job control, demands and complexity, insecurity, and perceptions of unfair pay). Analysis was conducted using longitudinal fixed-effects logistic regression models and negative binomial regression models. There was a dose-response relationship between the number of psychosocial job stressors reported by an individual and the odds of paid sickness absence (1 adversity: odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.45 (P = 0.002); 2 adversities: OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.51 (P = 0.002); ≥3 adversities: OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.29, 1.94 (P < 0.001)). The negative binomial regression models also indicated that respondents reported a greater number of days of sickness absence in response to worsening psychosocial job quality. These results suggest that workplace interventions aiming to improve the quality of work could help reduce sickness absence. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A general framework for the use of logistic regression models in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simmonds, Mark C; Higgins, Julian Pt

2016-12-01

Where individual participant data are available for every randomised trial in a meta-analysis of dichotomous event outcomes, "one-stage" random-effects logistic regression models have been proposed as a way to analyse these data. Such models can also be used even when individual participant data are not available and we have only summary contingency table data. One benefit of this one-stage regression model over conventional meta-analysis methods is that it maximises the correct binomial likelihood for the data and so does not require the common assumption that effect estimates are normally distributed. A second benefit of using this model is that it may be applied, with only minor modification, in a range of meta-analytic scenarios, including meta-regression, network meta-analyses and meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. This single model can potentially replace the variety of often complex methods used in these areas. This paper considers, with a range of meta-analysis examples, how random-effects logistic regression models may be used in a number of different types of meta-analyses. This one-stage approach is compared with widely used meta-analysis methods including Bayesian network meta-analysis and the bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) models for meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. © The Author(s) 2014.

[Spatial epidemiological study on malaria epidemics in Hainan province].

PubMed

Wen, Liang; Shi, Run-He; Fang, Li-Qun; Xu, De-Zhong; Li, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Yong; Yuan, Zheng-Quan; Zhang, Hui

2008-06-01

To better understand the characteristics of spatial distribution of malaria epidemics in Hainan province and to explore the relationship between malaria epidemics and environmental factors, as well to develop prediction model on malaria epidemics. Data on Malaria and meteorological factors were collected in all 19 counties in Hainan province from May to Oct., 2000, and the proportion of land use types of these counties in this period were extracted from digital map of land use in Hainan province. Land surface temperatures (LST) were extracted from MODIS images and elevations of these counties were extracted from DEM of Hainan province. The coefficients of correlation of malaria incidences and these environmental factors were then calculated with SPSS 13.0, and negative binomial regression analysis were done using SAS 9.0. The incidence of malaria showed (1) positive correlations to elevation, proportion of forest land area and grassland area; (2) negative correlations to the proportion of cultivated area, urban and rural residents and to industrial enterprise area, LST; (3) no correlations to meteorological factors, proportion of water area, and unemployed land area. The prediction model of malaria which came from negative binomial regression analysis was: I (monthly, unit: 1/1,000,000) = exp (-1.672-0.399xLST). Spatial distribution of malaria epidemics was associated with some environmental factors, and prediction model of malaria epidemic could be developed with indexes which extracted from satellite remote sensing images.

The gap between suicide characteristics in the print media and in the population.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Herberth, Arno; Voracek, Martin; Kapusta, Nestor D; Etzersdorfer, Elmar; Strauss, Markus; Sonneck, Gernot

2009-08-01

Programmes to educate media professionals about suicide are increasingly established, but information about which suicide cases are most likely to be reported in the mass media is sparse. We applied binomial tests to compare frequencies of social characteristics of all domestic suicides in the 13 largest Austrian print media in 2005 with frequencies of suicide characteristics in the population. Additionally, each reported suicide case was linked to its respective entry in the suicide database. We performed a logistic regression analysis, with presence of an article as outcome, and sex of the suicide case, age, religious affiliation, family status, conduction of an autopsy and location of the suicide as explaining variables. Time of the year and federal state where the suicide happened was controlled for. Binomial tests showed that suicides involving murder or murder attempt were over-represented in the media. Reporting on mental disorders was under-represented. In the regression analysis, the likelihood of a report was negatively associated with the age of suicide cases. Foreign citizenship was a further predictor of a suicide report. The methods of drowning, jumping, shooting and rare methods were more likely to be reported than hanging, which is the most frequent suicide method in Austria. Suicide characteristics in the media are not representative of the population. The identified discrepancies provide a basis for tailor-made education of mass media professionals.

Regular exercise and related factors in patients with Parkinson's disease: Applying zero-inflated negative binomial modeling of exercise count data.

PubMed

Lee, JuHee; Park, Chang Gi; Choi, Moonki

2016-05-01

This study was conducted to identify risk factors that influence regular exercise among patients with Parkinson's disease in Korea. Parkinson's disease is prevalent in the elderly, and may lead to a sedentary lifestyle. Exercise can enhance physical and psychological health. However, patients with Parkinson's disease are less likely to exercise than are other populations due to physical disability. A secondary data analysis and cross-sectional descriptive study were conducted. A convenience sample of 106 patients with Parkinson's disease was recruited at an outpatient neurology clinic of a tertiary hospital in Korea. Demographic characteristics, disease-related characteristics (including disease duration and motor symptoms), self-efficacy for exercise, balance, and exercise level were investigated. Negative binomial regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression for exercise count data were utilized to determine factors involved in exercise. The mean age of participants was 65.85 ± 8.77 years, and the mean duration of Parkinson's disease was 7.23 ± 6.02 years. Most participants indicated that they engaged in regular exercise (80.19%). Approximately half of participants exercised at least 5 days per week for 30 min, as recommended (51.9%). Motor symptoms were a significant predictor of exercise in the count model, and self-efficacy for exercise was a significant predictor of exercise in the zero model. Severity of motor symptoms was related to frequency of exercise. Self-efficacy contributed to the probability of exercise. Symptom management and improvement of self-efficacy for exercise are important to encourage regular exercise in patients with Parkinson's disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Long, D Leann; Stamm, John W

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two data sets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in 2 groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial comparing 3 toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analyzed with negative binomial hurdle, zero-inflated negative binomial, and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the randomized clinical trial were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. The choice of statistical model class should match the study's purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children's caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; Long, D. Leann; Stamm, John W.

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two datasets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in two groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial (RCT) comparing three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analysed with negative binomial hurdle (NBH), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial (MZINB) models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the RCT were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. Choice of statistical model class should match the study’s purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. PMID:28291962

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New diagnostic index for sarcopenia in patients with cardiovascular diseases

PubMed Central

Kai, Hisashi; Shibata, Rei; Niiyama, Hiroshi; Nishiyama, Yasuhiro; Murohara, Toyoaki; Yoshida, Noriko; Katoh, Atsushi; Ikeda, Hisao

2017-01-01

Background Sarcopenia is an aging and disease-related syndrome characterized by progressive and generalized loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength, with the risk of frailty and poor quality of life. Sarcopenia is diagnosed by a decrease in skeletal muscle index (SMI) and reduction of either handgrip strength or gait speed. However, measurement of SMI is difficult for general physicians because it requires special equipment for bioelectrical impedance assay or dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to explore a novel, simple diagnostic method of sarcopenia evaluation in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Methods We retrospectively investigated 132 inpatients with CVD (age: 72±12 years, age range: 27–93 years, males: 61%) Binomial logistic regression and correlation analyses were used to assess the associations of sarcopenia with simple physical data and biomarkers, including muscle-related inflammation makers and nutritional markers. Results Sarcopenia was present in 29.5% of the study population. Serum concentrations of adiponectin and sialic acid were significantly higher in sarcopenic than non-sarcopenic CVD patients. Stepwise multivariate binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that adiponectin, sialic acid, sex, age, and body mass index were independent factors for sarcopenia detection. Sarcopenia index, obtained from the diagnostic regression formula for sarcopenia detection including the five independent factors, indicated a high accuracy in ROC curve analysis (sensitivity 94.9%, specificity 69.9%) and the cutoff value for sarcopenia detection was -1.6134. Sarcopenia index had a significant correlation with the conventional diagnostic parameters of sarcopenia. Conclusions Our new sarcopenia index using simple parameters would be useful for diagnosing sarcopenia in CVD patients. PMID:28542531

Variability in results from negative binomial models for Lyme disease measured at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Tran, Phoebe; Waller, Lance

2015-01-01

Lyme disease has been the subject of many studies due to increasing incidence rates year after year and the severe complications that can arise in later stages of the disease. Negative binomial models have been used to model Lyme disease in the past with some success. However, there has been little focus on the reliability and consistency of these models when they are used to study Lyme disease at multiple spatial scales. This study seeks to explore how sensitive/consistent negative binomial models are when they are used to study Lyme disease at different spatial scales (at the regional and sub-regional levels). The study area includes the thirteen states in the Northeastern United States with the highest Lyme disease incidence during the 2002-2006 period. Lyme disease incidence at county level for the period of 2002-2006 was linked with several previously identified key landscape and climatic variables in a negative binomial regression model for the Northeastern region and two smaller sub-regions (the New England sub-region and the Mid-Atlantic sub-region). This study found that negative binomial models, indeed, were sensitive/inconsistent when used at different spatial scales. We discuss various plausible explanations for such behavior of negative binomial models. Further investigation of the inconsistency and sensitivity of negative binomial models when used at different spatial scales is important for not only future Lyme disease studies and Lyme disease risk assessment/management but any study that requires use of this model type in a spatial context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent patterns in antibiotic use for children with group A streptococcal infections in Japan.

PubMed

Okubo, Yusuke; Michihata, Nobuaki; Morisaki, Naho; Kinoshita, Noriko; Miyairi, Isao; Urayama, Kevin Y; Yasunaga, Hideo

2017-11-13

Antibiotics are the most frequently prescribed medicines for children, however inappropriate antibiotic prescribing is prevalent. This study investigated recent trends in antibiotic use and factors associated with appropriate antibiotic selection among children with group A streptococcal infections in Japan. Records of outpatients aged <18years with a diagnosis of group A streptococcal infection were obtained using the Japan Medical Data Center database. Prescription patterns for antibiotics were investigated and factors associated with penicillin use were evaluated using a multivariable log-binomial regression model. Overall, 5030 patients with a diagnosis of group A streptococcal infection were identified. The most commonly prescribed antibiotics were third-generation cephalosporins (53.3%), followed by penicillins (40.1%). In the multivariable log-binomial regression analysis, out-of-hours visits were independently associated with penicillin prescriptions [prevalence ratio (PR)=1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.18], whereas clinical departments other than paediatrics and internal medicine were related to non-penicillin prescriptions (PR=0.57, 95% CI 0.46-0.71). Third-generation cephalosporins were overprescribed for children with group A streptococcal infections. This investigation provides important information for promoting education for physicians and for constructing health policies for appropriate antibiotic prescription. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Community covariates of malnutrition based mortality among older adults.

PubMed

Lee, Matthew R; Berthelot, Emily R

2010-05-01

The purpose of this study was to identify community level covariates of malnutrition-based mortality among older adults. A community level framework was delineated which explains rates of malnutrition-related mortality among older adults as a function of community levels of socioeconomic disadvantage, disability, and social isolation among members of this group. County level data on malnutrition mortality of people 65 years of age and older for the period 2000-2003 were drawn from the CDC WONDER system databases. County level measures of older adult socioeconomic disadvantage, disability, and social isolation were derived from the 2000 US Census of Population and Housing. Negative binomial regression models adjusting for the size of the population at risk, racial composition, urbanism, and region were estimated to assess the relationships among these indicators. Results from negative binomial regression analysis yielded the following: a standard deviation increase in socioeconomic/physical disadvantage was associated with a 12% increase in the rate of malnutrition mortality among older adults (p < 0.001), whereas a standard deviation increase in social isolation was associated with a 5% increase in malnutrition mortality among older adults (p < 0.05). Community patterns of malnutrition based mortality among older adults are partly a function of levels of socioeconomic and physical disadvantage and social isolation among older adults. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between adherence to physical activity guidelines and health-related quality of life among individuals with physician-diagnosed arthritis.

PubMed

Austin, Shamly; Qu, Haiyan; Shewchuk, Richard M

2012-10-01

To examine the association between adherence to physical activity guidelines and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among individuals with arthritis. A cross-sectional sample with 33,071 US adults, 45 years or older with physician-diagnosed arthritis was obtained from 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. We conducted negative binomial regression analysis to examine HRQOL as a function of adherence to physical activity guidelines controlling for physicians' recommendations for physical activity, age, sex, race, education, marital status, employment, annual income, health insurance, personal physician, emotional support, body mass index, activity limitations, health status, and co-morbidities based on Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization. Descriptive statistics showed that 60% adults with arthritis did not adhere to physical activity guidelines, mean physically and mentally unhealthy days were 7.7 and 4.4 days, respectively. Results from negative binomial regression indicated that individuals who did not adhere to physical activity guidelines had 1.14 days more physically unhealthy days and 1.12 days more mentally unhealthy days than those who adhered controlling for covariates. Adherence to physical activity is important to improve HRQOL for individuals with arthritis. However, adherence is low among this population. Interventions are required to engage individuals with arthritis in physical activity.

Factors Associated with Hospital Length of Stay among Cancer Patients with Febrile Neutropenia

PubMed Central

Rosa, Regis G.; Goldani, Luciano Z.

2014-01-01

Purpose This study sought to evaluate factors associated with hospital length of stay in cancer patients with febrile neutropenia. Methods A prospective cohort study was performed at a single tertiary referral hospital in southern Brazil from October 2009 to August 2011. All adult cancer patients with febrile neutropenia admitted to the hematology ward were evaluated. Stepwise random-effects negative binomial regression was performed to identify risk factors for prolonged length of hospital stay. Results In total, 307 cases of febrile neutropenia were evaluated. The overall median length of hospital stay was 16 days (interquartile range 18 days). According to multiple negative binomial regression analysis, hematologic neoplasms (P = 0.003), high-dose chemotherapy regimens (P<0.001), duration of neutropenia (P<0.001), and bloodstream infection involving Gram-negative multi-drug-resistant bacteria (P = 0.003) were positively associated with prolonged hospital length of stay in patients with febrile neutropenia. The condition index showed no evidence of multi-collinearity effect among the independent variables. Conclusions Hematologic neoplasms, high-dose chemotherapy regimens, prolonged periods of neutropenia, and bloodstream infection with Gram-negative multi-drug-resistant bacteria are predictors of prolonged length hospital of stay among adult cancer patients with febrile neutropenia. PMID:25285790

Indicators of Terrorism Vulnerability in Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

the terror threat and vulnerabilities across Africa. Key words: Terrorism, Africa, Negative Binomial Regression, Classification Tree iv I would like...31 Metrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Log -likelihood...70 viii Page 5.3 Classification Tree Description

Use of clinical practice guidelines by dentists: findings from the Japanese dental practice-based research network.

PubMed

Kakudate, Naoki; Yokoyama, Yoko; Sumida, Futoshi; Matsumoto, Yuki; Gordan, Valeria V; Gilbert, Gregg H

2017-02-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine differences in the use of dental clinical practice guidelines among Japanese dentists, and (2) identify characteristics associated with the number of guidelines used by participating dentists. We conducted a cross-sectional study consisting of a questionnaire survey in Japan between July 2014 and May 2015. The study queried dentists working in outpatient dental practices who are affiliated with the Dental Practice-Based Research Network Japan (n = 148). They were asked whether they have used each of 15 Japanese dental clinical guidelines. Associations between the number of guidelines used by participants and specific characteristics were analysed via negative binomial regression analysis. The mean number of guidelines used by participating dentists was 2.5 ± 2.9 [standard deviation (SD)]. Rate of use of guidelines showed substantial variation, from 5% to 34% among dentists. The proportion of dentists that used guidelines was the highest among oral medicine specialists, who had the highest proportion for 10 of 15 guidelines. Negative binomial regression analysis identified three factors significantly associated with the number of guidelines used: 'years since graduation from dental school', 'specialty practice' and 'practice busyness'. These results suggest that the use of clinical practice guidelines by Japanese dentists may still be inadequate. Training in the use of the guidelines could be given to dental students as undergraduate education and to young clinicians as continuing education. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of Binary Adherence Data in the Setting of Polypharmacy: A Comparison of Different Approaches

PubMed Central

Esserman, Denise A.; Moore, Charity G.; Roth, Mary T.

2009-01-01

Older community dwelling adults often take multiple medications for numerous chronic diseases. Non-adherence to these medications can have a large public health impact. Therefore, the measurement and modeling of medication adherence in the setting of polypharmacy is an important area of research. We apply a variety of different modeling techniques (standard linear regression; weighted linear regression; adjusted linear regression; naïve logistic regression; beta-binomial (BB) regression; generalized estimating equations (GEE)) to binary medication adherence data from a study in a North Carolina based population of older adults, where each medication an individual was taking was classified as adherent or non-adherent. In addition, through simulation we compare these different methods based on Type I error rates, bias, power, empirical 95% coverage, and goodness of fit. We find that estimation and inference using GEE is robust to a wide variety of scenarios and we recommend using this in the setting of polypharmacy when adherence is dichotomously measured for multiple medications per person. PMID:20414358

QNB: differential RNA methylation analysis for count-based small-sample sequencing data with a quad-negative binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Lian; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Huang, Yufei; Meng, Jia

2017-08-31

As a newly emerged research area, RNA epigenetics has drawn increasing attention recently for the participation of RNA methylation and other modifications in a number of crucial biological processes. Thanks to high throughput sequencing techniques, such as, MeRIP-Seq, transcriptome-wide RNA methylation profile is now available in the form of count-based data, with which it is often of interests to study the dynamics at epitranscriptomic layer. However, the sample size of RNA methylation experiment is usually very small due to its costs; and additionally, there usually exist a large number of genes whose methylation level cannot be accurately estimated due to their low expression level, making differential RNA methylation analysis a difficult task. We present QNB, a statistical approach for differential RNA methylation analysis with count-based small-sample sequencing data. Compared with previous approaches such as DRME model based on a statistical test covering the IP samples only with 2 negative binomial distributions, QNB is based on 4 independent negative binomial distributions with their variances and means linked by local regressions, and in the way, the input control samples are also properly taken care of. In addition, different from DRME approach, which relies only the input control sample only for estimating the background, QNB uses a more robust estimator for gene expression by combining information from both input and IP samples, which could largely improve the testing performance for very lowly expressed genes. QNB showed improved performance on both simulated and real MeRIP-Seq datasets when compared with competing algorithms. And the QNB model is also applicable to other datasets related RNA modifications, including but not limited to RNA bisulfite sequencing, m 1 A-Seq, Par-CLIP, RIP-Seq, etc.

Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

PubMed

Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

2008-03-01

There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2014-01-01

Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

Introductory Statistics in the Garden

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagaman, John C.

2017-01-01

This article describes four semesters of introductory statistics courses that incorporate service learning and gardening into the curriculum with applications of the binomial distribution, least squares regression and hypothesis testing. The activities span multiple semesters and are iterative in nature.

Mental health status and healthcare utilization among community dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Adepoju, Omolola; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Mileski, Michael; Kruse, Clemens Scott; Mask, Andrew

2018-04-27

Shifts in mental health utilization patterns are necessary to allow for meaningful access to care for vulnerable populations. There have been long standing issues in how mental health is provided, which has caused problems in that care being efficacious for those seeking it. To assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization among adults ≥65 years. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization related to office-based physician visits, while a two-part model, consisting of logistic regression and negative binomial regression, was used to separately model emergency visits and inpatient services. The receipt of care in office-based settings were marginally higher for subjects with mental health difficulties. Both probabilities and counts of inpatient hospitalizations were similar across mental health categories. The count of ER visits was similar across mental health categories; however, the probability of having an emergency department visit was marginally higher for older adults who reported mental health difficulties in 2012. These findings are encouraging and lend promise to the recent initiatives on addressing gaps in mental healthcare services.

An examination of sources of sensitivity of consumer surplus estimates in travel cost models.

PubMed

Blaine, Thomas W; Lichtkoppler, Frank R; Bader, Timothy J; Hartman, Travis J; Lucente, Joseph E

2015-03-15

We examine sensitivity of estimates of recreation demand using the Travel Cost Method (TCM) to four factors. Three of the four have been routinely and widely discussed in the TCM literature: a) Poisson verses negative binomial regression; b) application of Englin correction to account for endogenous stratification; c) truncation of the data set to eliminate outliers. A fourth issue we address has not been widely modeled: the potential effect on recreation demand of the interaction between income and travel cost. We provide a straightforward comparison of all four factors, analyzing the impact of each on regression parameters and consumer surplus estimates. Truncation has a modest effect on estimates obtained from the Poisson models but a radical effect on the estimates obtained by way of the negative binomial. Inclusion of an income-travel cost interaction term generally produces a more conservative but not a statistically significantly different estimate of consumer surplus in both Poisson and negative binomial models. It also generates broader confidence intervals. Application of truncation, the Englin correction and the income-travel cost interaction produced the most conservative estimates of consumer surplus and eliminated the statistical difference between the Poisson and the negative binomial. Use of the income-travel cost interaction term reveals that for visitors who face relatively low travel costs, the relationship between income and travel demand is negative, while it is positive for those who face high travel costs. This provides an explanation of the ambiguities on the findings regarding the role of income widely observed in the TCM literature. Our results suggest that policies that reduce access to publicly owned resources inordinately impact local low income recreationists and are contrary to environmental justice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Binomial Baseball.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Eugene M.

1981-01-01

Student access to programmable calculators and computer terminals, coupled with a familiarity with baseball, provides opportunities to enhance their understanding of the binomial distribution and other aspects of analysis. (MP)

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data.

PubMed

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C

2015-12-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased Type I and Type II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in online supplemental materials. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data

PubMed Central

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A.; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C.

2015-01-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non-normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased type-I and type-II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally-technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in supplementary materials. PMID:26098126

Logistic quantile regression provides improved estimates for bounded avian counts: a case study of California Spotted Owl fledgling production

Treesearch

Brian S. Cade; Barry R. Noon; Rick D. Scherer; John J. Keane

2017-01-01

Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical...

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Spiritual and ceremonial plants in North America: an assessment of Moerman's ethnobotanical database comparing Residual, Binomial, Bayesian and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analysis.

PubMed

Turi, Christina E; Murch, Susan J

2013-07-09

Ethnobotanical research and the study of plants used for rituals, ceremonies and to connect with the spirit world have led to the discovery of many novel psychoactive compounds such as nicotine, caffeine, and cocaine. In North America, spiritual and ceremonial uses of plants are well documented and can be accessed online via the University of Michigan's Native American Ethnobotany Database. The objective of the study was to compare Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analyses of ritual, ceremonial and spiritual plants in Moerman's ethnobotanical database and to identify genera that may be good candidates for the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The database was queried with the following format "Family Name AND Ceremonial OR Spiritual" for 263 North American botanical families. Spiritual and ceremonial flora consisted of 86 families with 517 species belonging to 292 genera. Spiritual taxa were then grouped further into ceremonial medicines and items categories. Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and IDM analysis were performed to identify over and under-utilized families. The 4 statistical approaches were in good agreement when identifying under-utilized families but large families (>393 species) were underemphasized by Binomial, Bayesian and IDM approaches for over-utilization. Residual, Binomial, and IDM analysis identified similar families as over-utilized in the medium (92-392 species) and small (<92 species) classes. The families Apiaceae, Asteraceae, Ericacea, Pinaceae and Salicaceae were identified as significantly over-utilized as ceremonial medicines in medium and large sized families. Analysis of genera within the Apiaceae and Asteraceae suggest that the genus Ligusticum and Artemisia are good candidates for facilitating the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The 4 statistical approaches were not consistent in the selection of over-utilization of flora. Residual analysis revealed overall trends that were supported by Binomial analysis when separated into small, medium and large families. The Bayesian, Binomial and IDM approaches identified different genera as potentially important. Species belonging to the genus Artemisia and Ligusticum were most consistently identified and may be valuable in future studies of the ethnopharmacology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant selection for ethnobotanical uses on the Amalfi Coast (Southern Italy).

PubMed

Savo, V; Joy, R; Caneva, G; McClatchey, W C

2015-07-15

Many ethnobotanical studies have investigated selection criteria for medicinal and non-medicinal plants. In this paper we test several statistical methods using different ethnobotanical datasets in order to 1) define to which extent the nature of the datasets can affect the interpretation of results; 2) determine if the selection for different plant uses is based on phylogeny, or other selection criteria. We considered three different ethnobotanical datasets: two datasets of medicinal plants and a dataset of non-medicinal plants (handicraft production, domestic and agro-pastoral practices) and two floras of the Amalfi Coast. We performed residual analysis from linear regression, the binomial test and the Bayesian approach for calculating under-used and over-used plant families within ethnobotanical datasets. Percentages of agreement were calculated to compare the results of the analyses. We also analyzed the relationship between plant selection and phylogeny, chorology, life form and habitat using the chi-square test. Pearson's residuals for each of the significant chi-square analyses were examined for investigating alternative hypotheses of plant selection criteria. The three statistical analysis methods differed within the same dataset, and between different datasets and floras, but with some similarities. In the two medicinal datasets, only Lamiaceae was identified in both floras as an over-used family by all three statistical methods. All statistical methods in one flora agreed that Malvaceae was over-used and Poaceae under-used, but this was not found to be consistent with results of the second flora in which one statistical result was non-significant. All other families had some discrepancy in significance across methods, or floras. Significant over- or under-use was observed in only a minority of cases. The chi-square analyses were significant for phylogeny, life form and habitat. Pearson's residuals indicated a non-random selection of woody species for non-medicinal uses and an under-use of plants of temperate forests for medicinal uses. Our study showed that selection criteria for plant uses (including medicinal) are not always based on phylogeny. The comparison of different statistical methods (regression, binomial and Bayesian) under different conditions led to the conclusion that the most conservative results are obtained using regression analysis.

Risk Factors for Proximal Junctional Kyphosis Associated With Dual-rod Growing-rod Surgery for Early-onset Scoliosis.

PubMed

Watanabe, Kota; Uno, Koki; Suzuki, Teppei; Kawakami, Noriaki; Tsuji, Taichi; Yanagida, Haruhisa; Ito, Manabu; Hirano, Toru; Yamazaki, Ken; Minami, Shohei; Taneichi, Hiroshi; Imagama, Shiro; Takeshita, Katsushi; Yamamoto, Takuya; Matsumoto, Morio

2016-10-01

A retrospective, multicenter study. To identify risk factors for proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) when treating early-onset scoliosis (EOS) with dual-rod growing-rod (GR) procedure. The risk factors for PJK associated with GR treatment for EOS have not been adequately studied. We evaluated clinical and radiographic results from 88 patients with EOS who underwent dual-rod GR surgery in 12 spine centers in Japan. The mean age at the time of the initial surgery was 6.5±2.2 years (range, 1.5-9.8 y), and the mean follow-up period was 3.9±2.6 years (range, 2.0-12.0 y). Risk factors for PJK were analyzed by binomial multiple logistic regression analysis. The potential factors analyzed were sex, etiology, age, the number of rod-lengthening procedures, coronal and sagittal parameters on radiographs, the type of foundation (pedicle screws or hooks), the uppermost level of the proximal foundation, and the lowermost level of the distal foundation. PJK developed in 23 patients (26%); in 19 of these, the proximal foundation became dislodged following PJK. Binomial multiple logistic regression analysis identified the following significant independent risk factors for PJK: a lower instrumented vertebra at or cranial to L3 [odds ratio (OR), 3.32], a proximal thoracic scoliosis of ≥40 degrees (OR, 2.95), and a main thoracic kyphosis of ≥60 degrees (OR, 5.08). The significant independent risk factors for PJK during dual-rod GR treatment for EOS were a lower instrumented vertebra at or cranial to L3, a proximal thoracic scoliosis of ≥40 degrees, and a main thoracic kyphosis of ≥60 degrees.

Not in My Back Yard: A Comparative Analysis of Crime Around Publicly Funded Drug Treatment Centers, Liquor Stores, Convenience Stores, and Corner Stores in One Mid-Atlantic City.

PubMed

Furr-Holden, C Debra M; Milam, Adam J; Nesoff, Elizabeth D; Johnson, Renee M; Fakunle, David O; Jennings, Jacky M; Thorpe, Roland J

2016-01-01

This research examined whether publicly funded drug treatment centers (DTCs) were associated with violent crime in excess of the violence happening around other commercial businesses. Violent crime data and locations of community entities were geocoded and mapped. DTCs and other retail outlets were matched based on a Neighborhood Disadvantage score at the census tract level. Street network buffers ranging from 100 to 1,400 feet were placed around each location. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the count of violent crimes and the distance from each business type. Compared with the mean count of violent crime around drug treatment centers, the mean count of violent crime (M = 2.87) was significantly higher around liquor stores (M = 3.98; t test; p < .01) and corner stores (M = 3.78; t test; p < .01), and there was no statistically significant difference between the count around convenience stores (M = 2.65; t test; p = .32). In the adjusted negative binomial regression models, there was a negative and significant relationship between the count of violent crime and the distance from drug treatment centers (β = -.069, p < .01), liquor stores (β = -.081, p < .01), corner stores (β = -.116, p < .01), and convenience stores (β = -.154, p < .01). Violent crime associated with drug treatment centers is similar to that associated with liquor stores and is less frequent than that associated with convenience stores and corner stores.

Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

2012-01-01

Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

Comparing Environmental Influences on Coral Bleaching Across and within Species using Clustered Binomial Regression

EPA Science Inventory

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. However, the influence of the local environment on species-specific bleaching susceptibilities has not been ...

School Violence: The Role of Parental and Community Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lesneskie, Eric; Block, Steven

2017-01-01

This study utilizes the School Survey on Crime and Safety to identify variables that predict lower levels of violence from four domains: school security, school climate, parental involvement, and community involvement. Negative binomial regression was performed and the findings indicate that statistically significant results come from all four…

Predicting Children's Asthma Hospitalizations: Rural and Urban Differences in Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grineski, Sara E.

2009-01-01

Asthma is the number one chronic health condition facing children today; however, little is known about rural-urban inequalities in asthma. This "area effects on health" study examines rural-urban differences in childhood asthma hospitalizations within the state of Texas using negative binomial regression models. Effects associated with…

Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

PubMed

Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2016-08-01

This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Monte Carlo Risk Analysis of Life Cycle Cost Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

process which occurs with each FLU failure. With this in mind there is no alternative other than the binomial distribution. 24 GOR/SM/75D-6 With all of...Weibull distribution of failures as selected by user. For each failure of the ith FLU, the model then samples from the binomial distribution to deter- mine...which is sampled from the binomial . Neither of the two conditions for normality are met, i.e., that RTS Ie close to .5 and the number of samples close

The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

PubMed

Sheu, Mei-Ling; Hu, Teh-Wei; Keeler, Theodore E; Ong, Michael; Sung, Hai-Yen

2004-08-01

The objective of this paper is to determine the price sensitivity of smokers in their consumption of cigarettes, using evidence from a major increase in California cigarette prices due to Proposition 10 and the Tobacco Settlement. The study sample consists of individual survey data from Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFS) and price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1996 and 1999. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was applied for the statistical analysis. The statistical model showed that price did not have an effect on reducing the estimated prevalence of smoking. However, it indicated that among smokers the price elasticity was at the level of -0.46 and statistically significant. Since smoking prevalence is significantly lower than it was a decade ago, price increases are becoming less effective as an inducement for hard-core smokers to quit, although they may respond by decreasing consumption. For those who only smoke occasionally (many of them being young adults) price increases alone may not be an effective inducement to quit smoking. Additional underlying behavioral factors need to be identified so that more effective anti-smoking strategies can be developed.

Estimating relative risks for common outcome using PROC NLP.

PubMed

Yu, Binbing; Wang, Zhuoqiao

2008-05-01

In cross-sectional or cohort studies with binary outcomes, it is biologically interpretable and of interest to estimate the relative risk or prevalence ratio, especially when the response rates are not rare. Several methods have been used to estimate the relative risk, among which the log-binomial models yield the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the parameters. Because of restrictions on the parameter space, the log-binomial models often run into convergence problems. Some remedies, e.g., the Poisson and Cox regressions, have been proposed. However, these methods may give out-of-bound predicted response probabilities. In this paper, a new computation method using the SAS Nonlinear Programming (NLP) procedure is proposed to find the MLEs. The proposed NLP method was compared to the COPY method, a modified method to fit the log-binomial model. Issues in the implementation are discussed. For illustration, both methods were applied to data on the prevalence of microalbuminuria (micro-protein leakage into urine) for kidney disease patients from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. The sample SAS macro for calculating relative risk is provided in the appendix.

Racial Threat and White Opposition to Bilingual Education in Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hempel, Lynn M.; Dowling, Julie A.; Boardman, Jason D.; Ellison, Christopher G.

2013-01-01

This study examines local contextual conditions that influence opposition to bilingual education among non-Hispanic Whites, net of individual-level characteristics. Data from the Texas Poll (N = 615) are used in conjunction with U.S. Census data to test five competing hypotheses using binomial and multinomial logistic regression models. Our…

General Strain Theory as a Basis for the Design of School Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moon, Byongook; Morash, Merry

2013-01-01

The research described in this article applies general strain theory to identify possible points of intervention for reducing delinquency of students in two middle schools. Data were collected from 296 youths, and separate negative binomial regression analyses were used to identify predictors of violent, property, and status delinquency. Emotional…

The Effectiveness of an Electronic Security Management System in a Privately Owned Apartment Complex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenberg, David F.; Roush, Jeffrey B.

2009-01-01

Poisson and negative binomial regression methods are used to analyze the monthly time series data to determine the effects of introducing an integrated security management system including closed-circuit television (CCTV), door alarm monitoring, proximity card access, and emergency call boxes to a large privately-owned complex of apartment…

Socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; Dale, Pat; McMichael, Anthony J; Tong, Shilu

2009-02-01

To assess the socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus (BFV) transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia. Data on BFV notified cases, climate, tidal levels and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA) in six coastal cities, Queensland, for the period 1992-2001 were obtained from the relevant government agencies. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the socio-environmental predictors of BFV transmission. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, high and low tide were statistically significantly associated with BFV incidence at lags 0-2 months. The fitted negative binomial regression models indicate a significant independent association of each of maximum temperature (beta = 0.139, P = 0.000), high tide (beta = 0.005, P = 0.000) and SEIFA index (beta = -0.010, P = 0.000) with BFV transmission after adjustment for confounding variables. The transmission of BFV disease in Queensland coastal areas seemed to be determined by a combination of local social and environmental factors. The model developed in this study may have applications in the control and prevention of BFV disease in these areas.

Association between month of birth and melanoma risk: fact or fiction?

PubMed

Fiessler, Cornelia; Pfahlberg, Annette B; Keller, Andrea K; Radespiel-Tröger, Martin; Uter, Wolfgang; Gefeller, Olaf

2017-04-01

Evidence on the effect of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure in infancy on melanoma risk in later life is scarce. Three recent studies suggest that people born in spring carry a higher melanoma risk. Our study aimed at verifying whether such a seasonal pattern of melanoma risk actually exists. Data from the population-based Cancer Registry Bavaria (CRB) on the birth months of 28 374 incident melanoma cases between 2002 and 2012 were analysed and compared with data from the Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing on the birth month distribution in the Bavarian population. Crude and adjusted analyses using negative binomial regression models were performed in the total study group and supplemented by several subgroup analyses. In the crude analysis, the birth months March-May were over-represented among melanoma cases. Negative binomial regression models adjusted only for sex and birth year revealed a seasonal association between melanoma risk and birth month with 13-21% higher relative incidence rates for March, April and May compared with the reference December. However, after additionally adjusting for the birth month distribution of the Bavarian population, these risk estimates decreased markedly and no association with the birth month was observed any more. Similar results emerged in all subgroup analyses. Our large registry-based study provides no evidence that people born in spring carry a higher risk for developing melanoma in later life and thus lends no support to the hypothesis of higher UVR susceptibility during the first months of life. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Not in My Back Yard: A Comparative Analysis of Crime Around Publicly Funded Drug Treatment Centers, Liquor Stores, Convenience Stores, and Corner Stores in One Mid-Atlantic City

PubMed Central

Furr-Holden, C. Debra M.; Milam, Adam J.; Nesoff, Elizabeth D.; Johnson, Renee M.; Fakunle, David O.; Jennings, Jacky M.; Thorpe, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Objective: This research examined whether publicly funded drug treatment centers (DTCs) were associated with violent crime in excess of the violence happening around other commercial businesses. Method: Violent crime data and locations of community entities were geocoded and mapped. DTCs and other retail outlets were matched based on a Neighborhood Disadvantage score at the census tract level. Street network buffers ranging from 100 to 1,400 feet were placed around each location. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the count of violent crimes and the distance from each business type. Results: Compared with the mean count of violent crime around drug treatment centers, the mean count of violent crime (M = 2.87) was significantly higher around liquor stores (M = 3.98; t test; p < .01) and corner stores (M = 3.78; t test; p < .01), and there was no statistically significant difference between the count around convenience stores (M = 2.65; t test; p = .32). In the adjusted negative binomial regression models, there was a negative and significant relationship between the count of violent crime and the distance from drug treatment centers (β = -.069, p < .01), liquor stores (β = -.081, p < .01), corner stores (β = -.116, p < .01), and convenience stores (β = -.154, p < .01). Conclusions: Violent crime associated with drug treatment centers is similar to that associated with liquor stores and is less frequent than that associated with convenience stores and corner stores. PMID:26751351

Solar San Diego: The Impact of Binomial Rate Structures on Real PV Systems; Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

VanGeet, O.; Brown, E.; Blair, T.

2008-05-01

There is confusion in the marketplace regarding the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on the user's actual electricity bill under California Net Energy Metering, particularly with binomial tariffs (those that include both demand and energy charges) and time-of-use (TOU) rate structures. The City of San Diego has extensive real-time electrical metering on most of its buildings and PV systems, with interval data for overall consumption and PV electrical production available for multiple years. This paper uses 2007 PV-system data from two city facilities to illustrate the impacts of binomial rate designs. The analysis will determine the energy and demand savingsmore » that the PV systems are achieving relative to the absence of systems. A financial analysis of PV-system performance under various rate structures is presented. The data revealed that actual demand and energy use benefits of binomial tariffs increase in summer months, when solar resources allow for maximized electricity production. In a binomial tariff system, varying on- and semi-peak times can result in approximately $1,100 change in demand charges per month over not having a PV system in place, an approximate 30% cost savings. The PV systems are also shown to have a 30%-50% reduction in facility energy charges in 2007.« less

Analyzing hospitalization data: potential limitations of Poisson regression.

PubMed

Weaver, Colin G; Ravani, Pietro; Oliver, Matthew J; Austin, Peter C; Quinn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Poisson regression is commonly used to analyze hospitalization data when outcomes are expressed as counts (e.g. number of days in hospital). However, data often violate the assumptions on which Poisson regression is based. More appropriate extensions of this model, while available, are rarely used. We compared hospitalization data between 206 patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) and 107 treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) using Poisson regression and compared results from standard Poisson regression with those obtained using three other approaches for modeling count data: negative binomial (NB) regression, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression. We examined the appropriateness of each model and compared the results obtained with each approach. During a mean 1.9 years of follow-up, 183 of 313 patients (58%) were never hospitalized (indicating an excess of 'zeros'). The data also displayed overdispersion (variance greater than mean), violating another assumption of the Poisson model. Using four criteria, we determined that the NB and ZINB models performed best. According to these two models, patients treated with HD experienced similar hospitalization rates as those receiving PD {NB rate ratio (RR): 1.04 [bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-2.20]; ZINB summary RR: 1.21 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.60-2.46)}. Poisson and ZIP models fit the data poorly and had much larger point estimates than the NB and ZINB models [Poisson RR: 1.93 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-4.23); ZIP summary RR: 1.84 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-3.84)]. We found substantially different results when modeling hospitalization data, depending on the approach used. Our results argue strongly for a sound model selection process and improved reporting around statistical methods used for modeling count data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

2013-01-01

This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

Assessing Trauma, Substance Abuse, and Mental Health in a Sample of Homeless Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Mimi M.; Ford, Julian D.; Howard, Daniel L.; Bradford, Daniel W.

2010-01-01

This study examined the impact of physical and sexual trauma on a sample of 239 homeless men. Study participants completed a self-administered survey that collected data on demographics, exposure to psychological trauma, physical health and mental health problems, and substance use or misuse. Binomial logistic regression analyses were used to…

A statistical model to estimate the impact of a hepatitis A vaccination programme.

PubMed

Oviedo, Manuel; Pilar Muñoz, M; Domínguez, Angela; Borras, Eva; Carmona, Gloria

2008-11-11

A program of routine hepatitis A+B vaccination in preadolescents was introduced in 1998 in Catalonia, a region situated in the northeast of Spain. The objective of this study was to quantify the reduction in the incidence of hepatitis A in order to differentiate the natural reduction of the incidence of hepatitis A from that produced due to the vaccination programme and to predict the evolution of the disease in forthcoming years. A generalized linear model (GLM) using negative binomial regression was used to estimate the incidence rates of hepatitis A in Catalonia by year, age group and vaccination. Introduction of the vaccine reduced cases by 5.5 by year (p-value<0.001), but there was a significant interaction between the year of report and vaccination that smoothed this reduction (p-value<0.001). The reduction was not equal in all age groups, being greater in the 12-18 years age group, which fell from a mean rate of 8.15 per 100,000 person/years in the pre-vaccination period (1992-1998) to 1.4 in the vaccination period (1999-2005). The model predicts the evolution accurately for the group of vaccinated subjects. Negative binomial regression is more appropriate than Poisson regression when observed variance exceeds the observed mean (overdispersed count data), can cause a variable apparently contribute more on the model of what really makes it.

Clinicians' adherence to clinical practice guidelines for cardiac function monitoring during antipsychotic treatment: a retrospective report on 434 patients with severe mental illness.

PubMed

Manchia, Mirko; Firinu, Giorgio; Carpiniello, Bernardo; Pinna, Federica

2017-03-31

Severe mental illness (SMI) has considerable excess morbidity and mortality, a proportion of which is explained by cardiovascular diseases, caused in part by antipsychotic (AP) induced QT-related arrhythmias and sudden death by Torsade de Point (TdP). The implementation of evidence-based recommendations for cardiac function monitoring might reduce the incidence of these AP-related adverse events. To investigate clinicians' adherence to cardiac function monitoring before and after starting AP, we performed a retrospective assessment of 434 AP-treated SMI patients longitudinally followed-up for 5 years at an academic community mental health center. We classified antipsychotics according to their risk of inducing QT-related arrhythmias and TdP (Center for Research on Therapeutics, University of Arizona). We used univariate tests and multinomial or binary logistic regression model for data analysis. Univariate and multinomial regression analysis showed that psychiatrists were more likely to perform pre-treatment electrocardiogram (ECG) and electrolyte testing with AP carrying higher cardiovascular risk, but not on the basis of AP pharmacological class. Univariate and binomial regression analysis showed that cardiac function parameters (ECG and electrolyte balance) were more frequently monitored during treatment with second generation AP than with first generation AP. Our data show the presence of weaknesses in the cardiac function monitoring of AP-treated SMI patients, and might guide future interventions to tackle them.

Effect of Breastfeeding Promotion on Early Childhood Caries and Breastfeeding Duration among 5 Year Old Children in Eastern Uganda: A Cluster Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Birungi, Nancy; Fadnes, Lars T; Okullo, Isaac; Kasangaki, Arabat; Nankabirwa, Victoria; Ndeezi, Grace; Tumwine, James K; Tylleskär, Thorkild; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

2015-01-01

Although several studies have shown short term health benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), its long term consequences have not been studied extensively in low-income contexts. This study assessed the impact of an EBF promotion initiative for 6 months on early childhood caries (ECC) and breastfeeding duration in children aged 5 years in Mbale, Eastern Uganda. Participants were recruited from the Ugandan site of the PROMISE- EBF cluster randomised trial (ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00397150). A total of 765 pregnant women from 24 clusters were included in the ratio 1:1 to receive peer counselled promotion of EBF as the intervention or standard of care. At the 5 year follow-up, ECC was recorded under field conditions using the World Health Organization's decayed missing filled tooth (dmft) index. Adjusted negative binomial and linear regression were used in the analysis. Mean breastfeeding duration in the intervention and control groups (n=417) were 21.8 (CI 20.7-22.9) and 21.3(CI 20.7-21.9) months, respectively. The mean dmft was 1.5 (standard deviation [SD] 2.9) and 1.7 (SD 2.9) in the intervention and control groups, respectively. Corresponding prevalence estimates of ECC were 38% and 41%. Negative binomial regression analysis adjusted for cluster effects and loss-to-follow-up by inverse probability weights (IPW) showed an incidence-rate ratio (IRR) of 0.91 (95% CI 0.65-1.2). Comparing the effect of the trial arm on breastfeeding duration showed a difference in months of 0.48 (-0.72 to 1.7). PROMISE EBF trial did not impact on early childhood caries or breastfeeding duration at 5 years of age. This study contributes to the body of evidence that promotion of exclusive breastfeeding does not raise oral health concerns. However, the high burden of caries calls for efforts to improve the oral health condition in this setting. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00397150.

Analysis of generalized negative binomial distributions attached to hyperbolic Landau levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chhaiba, Hassan, E-mail: chhaiba.hassan@gmail.com; Demni, Nizar, E-mail: nizar.demni@univ-rennes1.fr; Mouayn, Zouhair, E-mail: mouayn@fstbm.ac.ma

2016-07-15

To each hyperbolic Landau level of the Poincaré disc is attached a generalized negative binomial distribution. In this paper, we compute the moment generating function of this distribution and supply its atomic decomposition as a perturbation of the negative binomial distribution by a finitely supported measure. Using the Mandel parameter, we also discuss the nonclassical nature of the associated coherent states. Next, we derive a Lévy-Khintchine-type representation of its characteristic function when the latter does not vanish and deduce that it is quasi-infinitely divisible except for the lowest hyperbolic Landau level corresponding to the negative binomial distribution. By considering themore » total variation of the obtained quasi-Lévy measure, we introduce a new infinitely divisible distribution for which we derive the characteristic function.« less

Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

PubMed

Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

2016-05-01

Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hopelessness as a Predictor of Suicide Ideation in Depressed Male and Female Adolescent Youth.

PubMed

Wolfe, Kristin L; Nakonezny, Paul A; Owen, Victoria J; Rial, Katherine V; Moorehead, Alexandra P; Kennard, Beth D; Emslie, Graham J

2017-12-21

We examined hopelessness as a predictor of suicide ideation in depressed youth after acute medication treatment. A total of 158 depressed adolescents were administered the Children's Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) as part of a larger battery at baseline and at weekly visits across 6 weeks of acute fluoxetine treatment. The Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) was administered at baseline and week 6. A negative binomial regression model via a generalized estimating equation analysis of repeated measures was used to estimate suicide ideation over the 6 weeks of acute treatment from baseline measure of hopelessness. Depression severity and gender were included as covariates in the model. The negative binomial analysis was also conducted separately for the sample of males and females (in a gender-stratified analysis). Mean CDRS-R total scores were 60.30 ± 8.93 at baseline and 34.65 ± 10.41 at week 6. Mean baseline and week 6 BHS scores were 9.57 ± 5.51 and 5.59 ± 5.38, respectively. Per the C-SSRS, 43.04% and 83.54% reported having no suicide ideation at baseline and at week 6, respectively. The analyses revealed that baseline hopelessness was positively related to suicide ideation over treatment (p = .0027), independent of changes in depression severity. This significant finding persisted only for females (p = .0024). These results indicate the importance of early identification of hopelessness. © 2017 The American Association of Suicidology.

Stability of a Model Explaining Selected Extramusical Influences on Solo and Small-Ensemble Festival Ratings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergee, Martin J.; Westfall, Claude R.

2005-01-01

This is the third study in a line of inquiry whose purpose has been to develop a theoretical model of selected extra musical variables' influence on solo and small-ensemble festival ratings. Authors of the second of these (Bergee & McWhirter, 2005) had used binomial logistic regression as the basis for their model-formulation strategy. Their…

A Negative Binomial Regression Model for Accuracy Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hung, Lai-Fa

2012-01-01

Rasch used a Poisson model to analyze errors and speed in reading tests. An important property of the Poisson distribution is that the mean and variance are equal. However, in social science research, it is very common for the variance to be greater than the mean (i.e., the data are overdispersed). This study embeds the Rasch model within an…

Which Types of Televised Anti-Tobacco Campaigns Prompt More Quitline Calls from Disadvantaged Groups?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durkin, Sarah J.; Wakefield, Melanie A.; Spittal, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

To examine the efficacy of different types of mass media ads in driving lower socio-economic smokers (SES) to utilize quitlines. This study collected all 33 719 calls to the Victorian quitline in Australia over a 2-year period. Negative binomial regressions examined the relationship between weekly levels of exposure to different types of…

Dental plaque, preventive care, and tooth brushing associated with dental caries in primary teeth in schoolchildren ages 6–9 years of Leon, Nicaragua

PubMed Central

del Socorro Herrera, Miriam; Medina-Solis, Carlo Eduardo; Minaya-Sánchez, Mirna; Pontigo-Loyola, América Patricia; Villalobos-Rodelo, Juan José; Islas-Granillo, Horacio; de la Rosa-Santillana, Rubén; Maupomé, Gerardo

2013-01-01

Background Our study aimed to evaluate the effect of various risk indicators for dental caries on primary teeth of Nicaraguan children (from Leon, Nicaragua) ages 6 to 9, using the negative binomial regression model. Material/Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out to collect clinical, demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data from 794 schoolchildren ages 6 to 9 years, randomly selected from 25 schools in the city of León, Nicaragua. Clinical examinations for dental caries (dmft index) were performed by 2 trained and standardized examiners. Socio-demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data were self-reported using questionnaires. Multivariate negative binomial regression (NBR) analysis was used. Results Mean age was 7.49±1.12 years. Boys accounted for 50.1% of the sample. Mean dmft was 3.54±3.13 and caries prevalence (dmft >0) was 77.6%. In the NBR multivariate model (p<0.05), for each year of age, the expected mean dmft decreased by 7.5%. Brushing teeth at least once a day and having received preventive dental care in the last year before data collection were associated with declines in the expected mean dmft by 19.5% and 69.6%, respectively. Presence of dental plaque increased the expected mean dmft by 395.5%. Conclusions The proportion of students with caries in this sample was high. We found associations between dental caries in the primary dentition and dental plaque, brushing teeth at least once a day, and having received preventive dental care. To improve oral health, school programs and/or age-appropriate interventions need to be developed based on the specific profile of caries experience and the associated risk indicators. PMID:24247119

Recurrent suicide attempts in patients with depressive and anxiety disorders: the role of borderline personality traits.

PubMed

Stringer, Barbara; van Meijel, Berno; Eikelenboom, Merijn; Koekkoek, Bauke; Licht, Carmilla M M; Kerkhof, Ad J F M; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Beekman, Aartjan T F

2013-10-01

The presence of a comorbid borderline personality disorder (BPD) may be associated with an increase of suicidal behaviors in patients with depressive and anxiety disorders. The aim of this study is to examine the role of borderline personality traits on recurrent suicide attempts. The Netherlands Study on Depression and Anxiety included 1838 respondents with lifetime depressive and/or anxiety disorders, of whom 309 reported at least one previous suicide attempt. A univariable negative binomial regression analysis was performed to examine the association between comorbid borderline personality traits and suicide attempts. Univariable and multivariable negative binomial regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for the number of recurrent suicide attempts in four clusters (type and severity of axis-I disorders, BPD traits, determinants of suicide attempts and socio-demographics). In the total sample the suicide attempt rate ratio increased with 33% for every unit increase in BPD traits. A lifetime diagnosis of dysthymia and comorbid BPD traits, especially the symptoms anger and fights, were independently and significantly associated with recurrent suicide attempts in the final model (n=309). The screening of personality disorders was added to the NESDA assessments at the 4-year follow-up for the first time. Therefore we were not able to examine the influence of comorbid BPD traits on suicide attempts over time. Persons with a lifetime diagnosis of dysthymia combined with borderline personality traits especially difficulties in coping with anger seemed to be at high risk for recurrent suicide attempts. For clinical practice, it is recommended to screen for comorbid borderline personality traits and to strengthen the patient's coping skills with regard to anger. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quality of maternity care and its determinants along the continuum in Kenya: A structural equation modeling analysis

PubMed Central

Mendez, Bomar Rojas

2017-01-01

Background Improving access to delivery services does not guarantee access to quality obstetric care and better survival, and therefore, concerns for quality of maternal and newborn care in low- and middle-income countries have been raised. Our study explored characteristics associated with the quality of initial assessment, intrapartum, and immediate postpartum and newborn care, and further assessed the relationships along the continuum of care. Methods The 2010 Service Provision Assessment data of Kenya for 627 routine deliveries of women aged 15–49 were used. Quality of care measures were assessed using recently validated quality of care measures during initial assessment, intrapartum, and postpartum periods. Data were analyzed with negative binomial regression and structural equation modeling technique. Results The negative binomial regression results identified a number of determinants of quality, such as the level of health facilities, managing authority, presence of delivery fee, central electricity supply and clinical guideline for maternal and neonatal care. Our structural equation modeling (SEM) further demonstrated that facility characteristics were important determinants of quality for initial assessment and postpartum care, while characteristics at the provider level became more important in shaping the quality of intrapartum care. Furthermore we also noted that quality of initial assessment had a positive association with quality of intrapartum care (β = 0.71, p < 0.001), which in turn was positively associated with the quality of newborn and immediate postpartum care (β = 1.29, p = 0.004). Conclusions A continued focus on quality of care along the continuum of maternity care is important not only to mothers but also their newborns. Policymakers should therefore ensure that required resources, as well as adequate supervision and emphasis on the quality of obstetric care, are available. PMID:28520771

Homicide mortality rates in Canada, 2000-2009: Youth at increased risk.

PubMed

Basham, C Andrew; Snider, Carolyn

2016-10-20

To estimate and compare Canadian homicide mortality rates (HMRs) and trends in HMRs across age groups, with a focus on trends for youth. Data for the period of 2000 to 2009 were collected from Statistics Canada's CANSIM (Canadian Statistical Information Management) Table 102-0540 with the following ICD-10-CA coded external causes of death: X85 to Y09 (assault) and Y87.1 (sequelae of assault). Annual population counts from 2000 to 2009 were obtained from Statistics Canada's CANSIM Table 051-0001. Both death and population counts were organized into five-year age groups. A random effects negative binomial regression analysis was conducted to estimate age group-specific rates, rate ratios, and trends in homicide mortality. There were 9,878 homicide deaths in Canada during the study period. The increase in the overall homicide mortality rate (HMR) of 0.3% per year was not statistically significant (95% CI: -1.1% to +1.8%). Canadians aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years had the highest HMRs during the study period, and experienced statistically significant annual increases in their HMRs of 3% and 4% respectively (p < 0.05). A general, though not statistically significant, decrease in the HMR was observed for all age groups 50+ years. A fixed effects negative binomial regression model showed that the HMR for males was higher than for females over the study period [RRfemale/male = 0.473 (95% CI: 0.361, 0.621)], but no significant difference in sex-specific trends in the HMR was found. An increasing risk of homicide mortality was identified among Canadian youth, ages 15-24, over the 10-year study period. Research that seeks to understand the reasons for the increased homicide risk facing Canada's youth, and public policy responses to reduce this risk, are warranted.

Dental plaque, preventive care, and tooth brushing associated with dental caries in primary teeth in schoolchildren ages 6-9 years of Leon, Nicaragua.

PubMed

Herrera, Miriam del Socorro; Medina-Solís, Carlo Eduardo; Minaya-Sánchez, Mirna; Pontigo-Loyola, América Patricia; Villalobos-Rodelo, Juan José; Islas-Granillo, Horacio; de la Rosa-Santillana, Rubén; Maupomé, Gerardo

2013-11-19

Our study aimed to evaluate the effect of various risk indicators for dental caries on primary teeth of Nicaraguan children (from Leon, Nicaragua) ages 6 to 9, using the negative binomial regression model. A cross-sectional study was carried out to collect clinical, demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data from 794 schoolchildren ages 6 to 9 years, randomly selected from 25 schools in the city of León, Nicaragua. Clinical examinations for dental caries (dmft index) were performed by 2 trained and standardized examiners. Socio-demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data were self-reported using questionnaires. Multivariate negative binomial regression (NBR) analysis was used. Mean age was 7.49 ± 1.12 years. Boys accounted for 50.1% of the sample. Mean dmft was 3.54 ± 3.13 and caries prevalence (dmft >0) was 77.6%. In the NBR multivariate model (p<0.05), for each year of age, the expected mean dmft decreased by 7.5%. Brushing teeth at least once a day and having received preventive dental care in the last year before data collection were associated with declines in the expected mean dmft by 19.5% and 69.6%, respectively. Presence of dental plaque increased the expected mean dmft by 395.5%. The proportion of students with caries in this sample was high. We found associations between dental caries in the primary dentition and dental plaque, brushing teeth at least once a day, and having received preventive dental care. To improve oral health, school programs and/or age-appropriate interventions need to be developed based on the specific profile of caries experience and the associated risk indicators.

A review of statistical estimators for risk-adjusted length of stay: analysis of the Australian and new Zealand Intensive Care Adult Patient Data-Base, 2008-2009.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2012-05-16

For the analysis of length-of-stay (LOS) data, which is characteristically right-skewed, a number of statistical estimators have been proposed as alternatives to the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with log dependent variable. Using a cohort of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 2008-2009, 12 different methods were used for estimation of intensive care (ICU) length of stay. These encompassed risk-adjusted regression analysis of firstly: log LOS using OLS, linear mixed model [LMM], treatment effects, skew-normal and skew-t models; and secondly: unmodified (raw) LOS via OLS, generalised linear models [GLMs] with log-link and 4 different distributions [Poisson, gamma, negative binomial and inverse-Gaussian], extended estimating equations [EEE] and a finite mixture model including a gamma distribution. A fixed covariate list and ICU-site clustering with robust variance were utilised for model fitting with split-sample determination (80%) and validation (20%) data sets, and model simulation was undertaken to establish over-fitting (Copas test). Indices of model specification using Bayesian information criterion [BIC: lower values preferred] and residual analysis as well as predictive performance (R2, concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), mean absolute error [MAE]) were established for each estimator. The data-set consisted of 111663 patients from 131 ICUs; with mean(SD) age 60.6(18.8) years, 43.0% were female, 40.7% were mechanically ventilated and ICU mortality was 7.8%. ICU length-of-stay was 3.4(5.1) (median 1.8, range (0.17-60)) days and demonstrated marked kurtosis and right skew (29.4 and 4.4 respectively). BIC showed considerable spread, from a maximum of 509801 (OLS-raw scale) to a minimum of 210286 (LMM). R2 ranged from 0.22 (LMM) to 0.17 and the CCC from 0.334 (LMM) to 0.149, with MAE 2.2-2.4. Superior residual behaviour was established for the log-scale estimators. There was a general tendency for over-prediction (negative residuals) and for over-fitting, the exception being the GLM negative binomial estimator. The mean-variance function was best approximated by a quadratic function, consistent with log-scale estimation; the link function was estimated (EEE) as 0.152(0.019, 0.285), consistent with a fractional-root function. For ICU length of stay, log-scale estimation, in particular the LMM, appeared to be the most consistently performing estimator(s). Neither the GLM variants nor the skew-regression estimators dominated.

The magnetisation distribution of the Ising model - a new approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakan Lundow, Per; Rosengren, Anders

2010-03-01

A completely new approach to the Ising model in 1 to 5 dimensions is developed. We employ a generalisation of the binomial coefficients to describe the magnetisation distributions of the Ising model. For the complete graph this distribution is exact. For simple lattices of dimensions d=1 and d=5 the magnetisation distributions are remarkably well-fitted by the generalized binomial distributions. For d=4 we are only slightly less successful, while for d=2,3 we see some deviations (with exceptions!) between the generalized binomial and the Ising distribution. The results speak in favour of the generalized binomial distribution's correctness regarding their general behaviour in comparison to the Ising model. A theoretical analysis of the distribution's moments also lends support their being correct asymptotically, including the logarithmic corrections in d=4. The full extent to which they correctly model the Ising distribution, and for which graph families, is not settled though.

Using Financial Ratios to Select Companies for Tax Auditing: A Preliminary Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marghescu, Dorina; Kallio, Minna; Back, Barbro

Tax auditing procedures include an investigation of the accounting records of a company and of other sources of information in order to assess whether the taxation has been based on correct and complete information. When there are found discrepancies between the accounting information and the real situation, the taxation should be corrected so that the eventual tax defaults are assessed and debited. The paper analyzes to what extent the financial performance of a company can be used as an indicator of tax defaults. We focus on one type of tax, namely employer's contribution, and four financial ratios. We evaluate the model in a study of Finnish companies by using a binomial logistic regression analysis. The study is exploratory and at a preliminary stage.

Some considerations for excess zeroes in substance abuse research.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; DeSantis, Stacia M; Korte, Jeffrey E; Brady, Kathleen T

2011-09-01

Count data collected in substance abuse research often come with an excess of "zeroes," which are typically handled using zero-inflated regression models. However, there is a need to consider the design aspects of those studies before using such a statistical model to ascertain the sources of zeroes. We sought to illustrate hurdle models as alternatives to zero-inflated models to validate a two-stage decision-making process in situations of "excess zeroes." We use data from a study of 45 cocaine-dependent subjects where the primary scientific question was to evaluate whether study participation influences drug-seeking behavior. The outcome, "the frequency (count) of cocaine use days per week," is bounded (ranging from 0 to 7). We fit and compare binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, and the hurdle version of these models to study the effect of gender, age, time, and study participation on cocaine use. The hurdle binomial model provides the best fit. Gender and time are not predictive of use. Higher odds of use versus no use are associated with age; however once use is experienced, odds of further use decrease with increase in age. Participation was associated with higher odds of no-cocaine use; once there is use, participation reduced the odds of further use. Age and study participation are significantly predictive of cocaine-use behavior. The two-stage decision process as modeled by a hurdle binomial model (appropriate for bounded count data with excess zeroes) provides interesting insights into the study of covariate effects on count responses of substance use, when all enrolled subjects are believed to be "at-risk" of use.

Albumin, a marker for post-operative myocardial damage in cardiac surgery.

PubMed

van Beek, Dianne E C; van der Horst, Iwan C C; de Geus, A Fred; Mariani, Massimo A; Scheeren, Thomas W L

2018-06-06

Low serum albumin (SA) is a prognostic factor for poor outcome after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between pre-operative SA, early post-operative SA and postoperative myocardial injury. This single center cohort study included adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery during 4 consecutive years. Postoperative myocardial damage was defined by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of troponin (Tn) values during the first 72 h after surgery and its association with SA analyzed using linear regression and with multivariable linear regression to account for patient related and procedural confounders. The association between SA and the secondary outcomes (peri-operative myocardial infarction [PMI], requiring ventilation >24 h, rhythm disturbances, 30-day mortality) was studied using (multivariable) log binomial regression analysis. In total 2757 patients were included. The mean pre-operative SA was 29 ± 13 g/l and the mean post-operative SA was 26 ± 6 g/l. Post-operative SA levels (on average 26 min after surgery) were inversely associated with postoperative myocardial damage in both univariable analysis (regression coefficient - 0.019, 95%CI -0.022/-0.015, p < 0.005) and after adjustment for patient related and surgical confounders (regression coefficient - 0.014 [95% CI -0.020/-0.008], p < 0.0005). Post-operative albumin levels were significantly correlated with the amount of postoperative myocardial damage in patients undergoing cardiac surgery independent of typical confounders. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2013-06-01

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

Do Barriers to Crime Prevention Moderate the Effects of Situational Crime Prevention Policies on Violent Crime in High Schools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sevigny, Eric L.; Zhang, Gary

2018-01-01

This study investigates how barriers to school-based crime prevention programming moderate the effects of situational crime prevention (SCP) policies on levels of violent crime in U.S. public high schools. Using data from the 2008 School Survey on Crime and Safety, we estimate a series of negative binomial regression models with interactions to…

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People's Republic of China: 2004-2013.

PubMed

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People's Republic of China. Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People's Republic of China during the period 2004-2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People's Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People's Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Suicide rate decreased in 2004-2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People's Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study.

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People’s Republic of China: 2004–2013

PubMed Central

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People’s Republic of China. Methods Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People’s Republic of China during the period 2004–2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Results Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Conclusion Suicide rate decreased in 2004–2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People’s Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study. PMID:27994468

[Parenting styles and their relationship with hyperactivity].

PubMed

Raya Trenas, Antonio Félix; Herreruzo Cabrera, Javier; Pino Osuna, María José

2008-11-01

The present study aims to determine the relationship among factors that make up the parenting styles according to the PCRI (Parent-Child Relationship Inventory) and hyperactivity reported by parents through the BASC (Behaviour Assessment System for Children). We selected a sample of 32 children between 3 and 14 years old (23 male and 9 female) with risk scores in hyperactivity and another similar group with low scores in hyperactivity. After administering both instruments to the parents, we carried out a binomial logistic regression analysis which resulted in a prediction model for 84.4% of the sample, made up of the PCRI factors: fathers' involvement, communication and role orientation, mothers' parental support, and both parents' limit-setting and autonomy. Moreover, our analysis of the variance produced significant differences in the support perceived by the fathers and mothers of both groups. Lastly, the utility of results to propose intervention strategies within the family based on an authoritative style is discussed.

The role of self-efficacy and motivation to explain the effect of motivational interviewing time on changes in risky sexual behavior among people living with HIV: a mediation analysis.

PubMed

Chariyeva, Zulfiya; Golin, Carol E; Earp, Jo Anne; Maman, Suzanne; Suchindran, Chirayath; Zimmer, Catherine

2013-02-01

Little is known about the amount of Motivational Interviewing (MI) needed to reduce risky sexual behavior among People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) or the roles self-efficacy and motivation to practice safer sex play. Among 183 PLWHA who received safer sex MI and were surveyed every 4 months over a 12 month period, we used hierarchical negative binomial regression models to examine the association between amount of counseling time and sexual risk behavior. We performed mediation analysis to evaluate whether changes in self-efficacy and motivation explained this association. This study found that as MI time and number of provided sessions increased, participants' sexual risk behavior decreased. The effect of MI time and number of sessions on sexual behavior was mediated by self-efficacy but not by motivation to practice safer sex.

The Role of Self-Efficacy and Motivation to Explain the Effect of Motivational Interviewing Time on Changes in Risky Sexual Behavior among People Living with HIV: A Mediation Analysis

PubMed Central

Golin, Carol E.; Earp, Jo Anne; Maman, Suzanne; Suchindran, Chirayath; Zimmer, Catherine

2014-01-01

Little is known about the amount of Motivational Interviewing (MI) needed to reduce risky sexual behavior among People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) or the roles self-efficacy and motivation to practice safer sex play. Among 183 PLWHA who received safer sex MI and were surveyed every 4 months over a 12 month period, we used hierarchical negative binomial regression models to examine the association between amount of counseling time and sexual risk behavior. We performed mediation analysis to evaluate whether changes in self-efficacy and motivation explained this association. This study found that as MI time and number of provided sessions increased, participants’ sexual risk behavior decreased. The effect of MI time and number of sessions on sexual behavior was mediated by self-efficacy but not by motivation to practice safer sex. PMID:22228069

Trace element analysis of rough diamond by LA-ICP-MS: a case of source discrimination?

PubMed

Dalpé, Claude; Hudon, Pierre; Ballantyne, David J; Williams, Darrell; Marcotte, Denis

2010-11-01

Current profiling of rough diamond source is performed using different physical and/or morphological techniques that require strong knowledge and experience in the field. More recently, chemical impurities have been used to discriminate diamond source and with the advance of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) empirical profiling of rough diamonds is possible to some extent. In this study, we present a LA-ICP-MS methodology that we developed for analyzing ultra-trace element impurities in rough diamond for origin determination ("profiling"). Diamonds from two sources were analyzed by LA-ICP-MS and were statistically classified by accepted methods. For the two diamond populations analyzed in this study, binomial logistic regression produced a better overall correct classification than linear discriminant analysis. The results suggest that an anticipated matrix match reference material would improve the robustness of our methodology for forensic applications. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Exploring Audiologists' Language and Hearing Aid Uptake in Initial Rehabilitation Appointments.

PubMed

Sciacca, Anna; Meyer, Carly; Ekberg, Katie; Barr, Caitlin; Hickson, Louise

2017-06-13

The study aimed (a) to profile audiologists' language during the diagnosis and management planning phase of hearing assessment appointments and (b) to explore associations between audiologists' language and patients' decisions to obtain hearing aids. Sixty-two audiologist-patient dyads participated. Patient participants were aged 55 years or older. Hearing assessment appointments were audiovisually recorded and transcribed for analysis. Audiologists' language was profiled using two measures: general language complexity and use of jargon. A binomial, multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the associations between these language measures and hearing aid uptake. The logistic regression model revealed that the Flesch-Kincaid reading grade level of audiologists' language was significantly associated with hearing aid uptake. Patients were less likely to obtain hearing aids when audiologists' language was at a higher reading grade level. No associations were found between audiologists' use of jargon and hearing aid uptake. Audiologists' use of complex language may present a barrier for patients to understand hearing rehabilitation recommendations. Reduced understanding may limit patient participation in the decision-making process and result in patients being less willing to trial hearing aids. Clear, concise language is recommended to facilitate shared decision making.

Factors Associated with Dental Caries in a Group of American Indian Children at age 36 Months

PubMed Central

Warren, John J.; Blanchette, Derek; Dawson, Deborah V.; Marshall, Teresa A.; Phipps, Kathy R.; Starr, Delores; Drake, David R.

2015-01-01

Objectives Early childhood caries (ECC) is rampant among American Indian children, but there has been relatively little study of this problem. This paper reports on risk factors for caries for a group of American Indian children at age 36 months as part of a longitudinal study. Methods Pregnant women from a Northern Plains Tribal community were recruited to participate in a longitudinal study of caries and caries risk factors. Standardized dental examinations were completed on children and questionnaires were completed by mothers at baseline and when children were 4, 8, 12, 16, 22, 28 and 36 months of age. Examinations were surface-specific for dental caries, and the questionnaires collected data on demographic, dietary and behavioral factors. Non-parametric bivariate tests and logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for caries at 36 months, and negative binomial regression was used to identify factors related to caries severity (dmf counts). Results Among the 232 children, and caries prevalence for cavitated lesions was 80%, with an additional 15% having only non-cavitated lesions. The mean dmfs was 9.6, and of the total dmfs, nearly 62% of affected surfaces were decayed, 31% were missing, and 7% were filled. Logistic regression identified higher added sugar beverage consumption, younger maternal age at baseline, higher maternal DMFS at baseline, and greater number of people in the household as significant (p<0.05) risk factors. Negative binomial regression found that only maternal DMFS was associated with child dmf counts. Conclusions By the age of 36 months, dental caries is nearly universal in this population of American Indian children. Caries risk factors included sugared beverage consumption, greater household size and maternal factors, but further analyses are needed to better understand caries in this population. PMID:26544674

The relationship between non-communicable disease occurrence and poverty-evidence from demographic surveillance in Matlab, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mirelman, Andrew J; Rose, Sherri; Khan, Jahangir Am; Ahmed, Sayem; Peters, David H; Niessen, Louis W; Trujillo, Antonio J

2016-07-01

In low-income countries, a growing proportion of the disease burden is attributable to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). There is little knowledge, however, of their impact on wealth, human capital, economic growth or household poverty. This article estimates the risk of being poor after an NCD death in the rural, low-income area of Matlab, Bangladesh. In a matched cohort study, we estimated the 2-year relative risk (RR) of being poor in Matlab households with an NCD death in 2010. Three separate measures of household economic status were used as outcomes: an asset-based index, self-rated household economic condition and total household landholding. Several estimation methods were used including contingency tables, log-binomial regression and regression standardization and machine learning. Households with an NCD death had a large and significant risk of being poor. The unadjusted RR of being poor after death was 1.19, 1.14 and 1.10 for the asset quintile, self-rated condition and landholding outcomes. Adjusting for household and individual level independent variables with log-binomial regression gave RRs of 1.19 [standard error (SE) 0.09], 1.16 (SE 0.07) and 1.14 (SE 0.06), which were found to be exactly the same using regression standardization (SE: 0.09, 0.05, 0.03). Machine learning-based standardization produced slightly smaller RRs though still in the same order of magnitude. The findings show that efforts to address the burden of NCD may also combat household poverty and provide a return beyond improved health. Future work should attempt to disentangle the mechanisms through which economic impacts from an NCD death occur. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Determinants of the lethality of climate-related disasters in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM): a cross-country analysis

PubMed Central

Andrewin, Aisha N.; Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose M.; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2015-01-01

Floods and storms are climate-related hazards posing high mortality risk to Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations. However risk factors for their lethality remain untested. We conducted an ecological study investigating risk factors for flood and storm lethality in CARICOM nations for the period 1980–2012. Lethality - deaths versus no deaths per disaster event- was the outcome. We examined biophysical and social vulnerability proxies and a decadal effect as predictors. We developed our regression model via multivariate analysis using a generalized logistic regression model with quasi-binomial distribution; removal of multi-collinear variables and backward elimination. Robustness was checked through subset analysis. We found significant positive associations between lethality, percentage of total land dedicated to agriculture (odds ratio [OR] 1.032; 95% CI: 1.013–1.053) and percentage urban population (OR 1.029, 95% CI 1.003–1.057). Deaths were more likely in the 2000–2012 period versus 1980–1989 (OR 3.708, 95% CI 1.615–8.737). Robustness checks revealed similar coefficients and directions of association. Population health in CARICOM nations is being increasingly impacted by climate-related disasters connected to increasing urbanization and land use patterns. Our findings support the evidence base for setting sustainable development goals (SDG). PMID:26153115

Modelling infant mortality rate in Central Java, Indonesia use generalized poisson regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahutama, Alan; Sudarno

2018-05-01

The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births in a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 live births occurring among the population of the given geographical area during the same year. This problem needs to be addressed because it is an important element of a country’s economic development. High infant mortality rate will disrupt the stability of a country as it relates to the sustainability of the population in the country. One of regression model that can be used to analyze the relationship between dependent variable Y in the form of discrete data and independent variable X is Poisson regression model. Recently The regression modeling used for data with dependent variable is discrete, among others, poisson regression, negative binomial regression and generalized poisson regression. In this research, generalized poisson regression modeling gives better AIC value than poisson regression. The most significant variable is the Number of health facilities (X1), while the variable that gives the most influence to infant mortality rate is the average breastfeeding (X9).

Maternal Early Life Factors Associated with Hormone Levels and the Risk of Having a Child with an Autism Spectrum Disorder in the Nurses Health Study II

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyall, Kristen; Pauls, David L.; Santangelo, Susan; Spiegelman, Donna; Ascherio, Alberto

2011-01-01

It is not known whether reproductive factors early in the mother's life influence risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We assessed maternal age at menarche, menstrual cycle characteristics during adolescence, oral contraceptive use prior to first birth, body shape, and body mass index (BMI) in association with ASD using binomial regression in…

Oral health of schoolchildren in Western Australia.

PubMed

Arrow, P

2016-09-01

The West Australian School Dental Service (SDS) provides free, statewide, primary dental care to schoolchildren aged 5-17 years. This study reports on an evaluation of the oral health of children examined during the 2014 calendar year. Children were sampled, based on their date of birth, and SDS clinicians collected the clinical information. Weighted mean values of caries experience were presented. Negative binomial regression modelling was undertaken to test for factors of significance in the rate of caries occurrence. Data from children aged 5-15 years were used (girls = 4616, boys = 4900). Mean dmft (5-10-year-olds), 1.42 SE 0.03; mean DMFT (6-15-year-olds), 0.51 SE 0.01. Negative binomial regression model of permanent tooth caries found higher rates of caries in children who were from non-fluoridated areas (RR 2.1); Aboriginal (RR 2.4); had gingival inflammation (RR 1.5); lower ICSEA level (RR 1.4); and recalled at more than 24-month interval (RR 1.8). The study highlighted poor dental health associated with living in non-fluoridated areas, Aboriginal identity, poor oral hygiene, lower socioeconomic level and having extended intervals between dental checkups. Timely assessments and preventive measures targeted at groups, including extending community water fluoridation, may assist in further improving the oral health of children in Western Australia. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

Association between early childhood caries and maternal caries status: A cross-section study in São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil

PubMed Central

de Souza, Pedrita Mara do Espírito Santo; Mello Proença, Mariana Almeida; Franco, Mayra Moura; Rodrigues, Vandilson Pinheiro; Costa, José Ferreira; Costa, Elizabeth Lima

2015-01-01

Objective: This study aims to evaluate the association between early childhood caries (ECC) and maternal caries status, and the maternal perception of ECC risk factors. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out with 77 mother-child pairs, the children ranging from 12 to 36 months of age and their mothers, who were seeking dental care at a health center in São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil. Data collection was conducted using a specific questionnaire for mothers. Oral clinical examination of the mother-child binomial to assess caries incidence, gingival bleeding (GB) and visible plaque was done. Home visits were performed in 10% of the sample in order to observe the environmental conditions, dietary habits and dental hygiene practices. Results: The findings showed that the caries prevalence in children was 22.5 times higher in the mother who had decayed tooth (prevalence ratio [PR] = 22.5, confidence interval [CI] 95% = 3.2–156.6, P < 0.001). GB also was observed in 14 mothers and children, the PR in pair was 12.2 (CI95% = 1.6–88.9, P < 0.001). The variables are related for the mother-child binomial in regression linear analysis. Conclusion: The maternal caries status was associated with ECC. PMID:25713495

Magnitude of virologic blips is associated with a higher risk for virologic rebound in HIV-infected individuals: a recurrent events analysis.

PubMed

Grennan, J Troy; Loutfy, Mona R; Su, DeSheng; Harrigan, P Richard; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio S G; Rourke, Sean; Tsoukas, Christos; Hogg, Bob; Raboud, Janet

2012-04-15

The importance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) blip magnitude on virologic rebound has been raised in clinical guidelines relating to viral load assays. Antiretroviral-naive individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) after 1 January 2000 and achieving virologic suppression were studied. Negative binomial models were used to identify blip correlates. Recurrent event models were used to determine the association between blips and rebound by incorporating multiple periods of virologic suppression per individual. 3550 participants (82% male; median age, 40 years) were included. In a multivariable negative binomial regression model, the Amplicor assay was associated with a lower blip rate than branched DNA (rate ratio, 0.69; P < .01), controlling for age, sex, region, baseline HIV-1 RNA and CD4 count, AIDS-defining illnesses, year of cART initiation, cART type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency. In a multivariable recurrent event model controlling for age, sex, intravenous drug use, cART start year, cART type, assay type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency, blips of 500-999 copies/mL were associated with virologic rebound (hazard ratio, 2.70; P = .002), whereas blips of 50-499 were not. HIV-1 RNA assay was an important determinant of blip rates and should be considered in clinical guidelines. Blips ≥500 copies/mL were associated with increased rebound risk.

Impact of early childhood caries on oral health-related quality of life of preschool children.

PubMed

Li, M Y; Zhi, Q H; Zhou, Y; Qiu, R M; Lin, H C

2015-03-01

Child oral health-related quality of life (COHRQoL) has been assessed in developed areas; however, it remains unstudied in mainland China. Studies on COHRQoL would benefit a large number of children in China suffering from oral health problems such as dental caries. This study explored the relationship between COHRQoL and early childhood caries, adjusted by socioeconomic factors, in 3- to 4-year-old children in a region of southern China. In this study, 1062 children aged 3-4 years were recruited by cluster sampling and their oral health statuses were examined by a trained dentist. The Chinese version of the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS) and questions about the children's socioeconomic conditions were completed by the children's parents. A negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess the prevalence of early childhood caries among the children and its influence on COHRQoL. The total ECOHIS scores of the returned scale sets ranged from 0 to 31, and their average scores was 3.1±5.1. The negative binomial analysis showed that the dmfs indices were significantly associated with the ECOHIS score and subscale scores (P<0.05). The multivariate adjusted model showed that a higher dmft index was associated with greater negative impact on COHRQoL (RR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.07, 1.13; P < 0.05). However, demographic and socioeconomic factors were not associated with COHRQoL (P>0.05). The severity of early childhood caries has a negative impact on the oral health-related quality of life of preschool children and their parents.

Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates.

PubMed

Linning, Shannon J; Andresen, Martin A; Brantingham, Paul J

2017-12-01

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.

The effect of consumers’ perception to the satisfaction of use of traditional medicines in Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, R. S.; Supriana, T.; Haryanti, S.

2018-02-01

Consumption of chemical medicines fluctuated in 2009-2014, whereas the consumption of solid traditional medicine increased in 2009-2014. The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence of consumers’s perception on the consumption of traditional medicinal plants. The data was analysed by using a binomial logit regression analysis. It is found that the consumers’s perceptions affect customer satisfaction simultaneously are the health benefits variable, quality of traditional medicine variable, price of traditional medicine and available product; the health benefits variable and quality of traditional medicine variable partially have significant effects to customers’s satisfaction simultaneously satisfaction partially; the health benefit variable and quality of traditional medicine is found to have a marginal effect of 7% and 4%, respectively.

Metaprop: a Stata command to perform meta-analysis of binomial data.

PubMed

Nyaga, Victoria N; Arbyn, Marc; Aerts, Marc

2014-01-01

Meta-analyses have become an essential tool in synthesizing evidence on clinical and epidemiological questions derived from a multitude of similar studies assessing the particular issue. Appropriate and accessible statistical software is needed to produce the summary statistic of interest. Metaprop is a statistical program implemented to perform meta-analyses of proportions in Stata. It builds further on the existing Stata procedure metan which is typically used to pool effects (risk ratios, odds ratios, differences of risks or means) but which is also used to pool proportions. Metaprop implements procedures which are specific to binomial data and allows computation of exact binomial and score test-based confidence intervals. It provides appropriate methods for dealing with proportions close to or at the margins where the normal approximation procedures often break down, by use of the binomial distribution to model the within-study variability or by allowing Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation to stabilize the variances. Metaprop was applied on two published meta-analyses: 1) prevalence of HPV-infection in women with a Pap smear showing ASC-US; 2) cure rate after treatment for cervical precancer using cold coagulation. The first meta-analysis showed a pooled HPV-prevalence of 43% (95% CI: 38%-48%). In the second meta-analysis, the pooled percentage of cured women was 94% (95% CI: 86%-97%). By using metaprop, no studies with 0% or 100% proportions were excluded from the meta-analysis. Furthermore, study specific and pooled confidence intervals always were within admissible values, contrary to the original publication, where metan was used.

Perceived interparental conflict and early adolescents' friendships: the role of attachment security and emotion regulation.

PubMed

Schwarz, Beate; Stutz, Melanie; Ledermann, Thomas

2012-09-01

Although there is strong evidence for the effect of interparental conflict on adolescents' internalizing and externalizing problems, little is known about the effect on the quality of adolescents' relationships. The current study investigates the link between adolescents' friendships and interparental conflict as reported by both parents and adolescents. It considers early adolescents' emotion regulation ability and attachment security as mediators. The analysis is based on a longitudinal study with two waves separated by 12 months. The participants were 180 two-parent families and their adolescent children (50.5 % girls), the average age of the latter being 10.61 years (SD = 0.41) at the outset (Time 1). Binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that perceived interparental conflict increased the risk of instability in friendship relationships across the 1-year period. Structural equation modeling analysis indicated that the association between perceived interparental conflict and friendship quality was mediated by emotion regulation and attachment security. The discussion focuses on mechanisms whereby interparental conflict influences early adolescents' friendship relationships.

Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

2017-10-01

There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical inference involving binomial and negative binomial parameters.

PubMed

García-Pérez, Miguel A; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

2009-05-01

Statistical inference about two binomial parameters implies that they are both estimated by binomial sampling. There are occasions in which one aims at testing the equality of two binomial parameters before and after the occurrence of the first success along a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In these cases, the binomial parameter before the first success is estimated by negative binomial sampling whereas that after the first success is estimated by binomial sampling, and both estimates are related. This paper derives statistical tools to test two hypotheses, namely, that both binomial parameters equal some specified value and that both parameters are equal though unknown. Simulation studies are used to show that in small samples both tests are accurate in keeping the nominal Type-I error rates, and also to determine sample size requirements to detect large, medium, and small effects with adequate power. Additional simulations also show that the tests are sufficiently robust to certain violations of their assumptions.

Impact of cigarette smoking on utilization of nursing home services.

PubMed

Warner, Kenneth E; McCammon, Ryan J; Fries, Brant E; Langa, Kenneth M

2013-11-01

Few studies have examined the effects of smoking on nursing home utilization, generally using poor data on smoking status. No previous study has distinguished utilization for recent from long-term quitters. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we assessed nursing home utilization by never-smokers, long-term quitters (quit >3 years), recent quitters (quit ≤3 years), and current smokers. We used logistic regression to evaluate the likelihood of a nursing home admission. For those with an admission, we used negative binomial regression on the number of nursing home nights. Finally, we employed zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate nights for the full sample. Controlling for other variables, compared with never-smokers, long-term quitters have an odds ratio (OR) for nursing home admission of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07-1.2), current smokers 1.39 (1.23-1.57), and recent quitters 1.55 (1.29-1.87). The probability of admission rises rapidly with age and is lower for African Americans and Hispanics, more affluent respondents, respondents with a spouse present in the home, and respondents with a living child. Given admission, smoking status is not associated with length of stay (LOS). LOS is longer for older respondents and women and shorter for more affluent respondents and those with spouses present. Compared with otherwise identical never-smokers, former and current smokers have a significantly increased risk of nursing home admission. That recent quitters are at greatest risk of admission is consistent with evidence that many stop smoking because they are sick, often due to smoking.

Robust inference in the negative binomial regression model with an application to falls data.

PubMed

Aeberhard, William H; Cantoni, Eva; Heritier, Stephane

2014-12-01

A popular way to model overdispersed count data, such as the number of falls reported during intervention studies, is by means of the negative binomial (NB) distribution. Classical estimating methods are well-known to be sensitive to model misspecifications, taking the form of patients falling much more than expected in such intervention studies where the NB regression model is used. We extend in this article two approaches for building robust M-estimators of the regression parameters in the class of generalized linear models to the NB distribution. The first approach achieves robustness in the response by applying a bounded function on the Pearson residuals arising in the maximum likelihood estimating equations, while the second approach achieves robustness by bounding the unscaled deviance components. For both approaches, we explore different choices for the bounding functions. Through a unified notation, we show how close these approaches may actually be as long as the bounding functions are chosen and tuned appropriately, and provide the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. Moreover, we introduce a robust weighted maximum likelihood estimator for the overdispersion parameter, specific to the NB distribution. Simulations under various settings show that redescending bounding functions yield estimates with smaller biases under contamination while keeping high efficiency at the assumed model, and this for both approaches. We present an application to a recent randomized controlled trial measuring the effectiveness of an exercise program at reducing the number of falls among people suffering from Parkinsons disease to illustrate the diagnostic use of such robust procedures and their need for reliable inference. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Effect of Breastfeeding Promotion on Early Childhood Caries and Breastfeeding Duration among 5 Year Old Children in Eastern Uganda: A Cluster Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Birungi, Nancy; Fadnes, Lars T.; Okullo, Isaac; Kasangaki, Arabat; Nankabirwa, Victoria; Ndeezi, Grace; Tumwine, James K.; Tylleskär, Thorkild; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

2015-01-01

Background Although several studies have shown short term health benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), its long term consequences have not been studied extensively in low-income contexts. This study assessed the impact of an EBF promotion initiative for 6 months on early childhood caries (ECC) and breastfeeding duration in children aged 5 years in Mbale, Eastern Uganda. Methods Participants were recruited from the Ugandan site of the PROMISE- EBF cluster randomised trial (ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00397150). A total of 765 pregnant women from 24 clusters were included in the ratio 1:1 to receive peer counselled promotion of EBF as the intervention or standard of care. At the 5 year follow-up, ECC was recorded under field conditions using the World Health Organization’s decayed missing filled tooth (dmft) index. Adjusted negative binomial and linear regression were used in the analysis. Results Mean breastfeeding duration in the intervention and control groups (n=417) were 21.8 (CI 20.7–22.9) and 21.3(CI 20.7–21.9) months, respectively. The mean dmft was 1.5 (standard deviation [SD] 2.9) and 1.7 (SD 2.9) in the intervention and control groups, respectively. Corresponding prevalence estimates of ECC were 38% and 41%. Negative binomial regression analysis adjusted for cluster effects and loss-to-follow-up by inverse probability weights (IPW) showed an incidence-rate ratio (IRR) of 0.91 (95% CI 0.65–1.2). Comparing the effect of the trial arm on breastfeeding duration showed a difference in months of 0.48 (-0.72 to 1.7). Conclusion PROMISE EBF trial did not impact on early childhood caries or breastfeeding duration at 5 years of age. This study contributes to the body of evidence that promotion of exclusive breastfeeding does not raise oral health concerns. However, the high burden of caries calls for efforts to improve the oral health condition in this setting. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00397150 PMID:25938681

Zero-truncated negative binomial - Erlang distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodhisuwan, Winai; Pudprommarat, Chookait; Bodhisuwan, Rujira; Saothayanun, Luckhana

2017-11-01

The zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution is introduced. It is developed from negative binomial-Erlang distribution. In this work, the probability mass function is derived and some properties are included. The parameters of the zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution are estimated by using the maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, the proposed distribution is applied to real data, the number of methamphetamine in the Bangkok, Thailand. Based on the results, it shows that the zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution provided a better fit than the zero-truncated Poisson, zero-truncated negative binomial, zero-truncated generalized negative-binomial and zero-truncated Poisson-Lindley distributions for this data.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-10-01

Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Washington, Simon P; Ivan, John N

2005-01-01

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states-perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed-and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros.

A comparison of different statistical methods analyzing hypoglycemia data using bootstrap simulations.

PubMed

Jiang, Honghua; Ni, Xiao; Huster, William; Heilmann, Cory

2015-01-01

Hypoglycemia has long been recognized as a major barrier to achieving normoglycemia with intensive diabetic therapies. It is a common safety concern for the diabetes patients. Therefore, it is important to apply appropriate statistical methods when analyzing hypoglycemia data. Here, we carried out bootstrap simulations to investigate the performance of the four commonly used statistical models (Poisson, negative binomial, analysis of covariance [ANCOVA], and rank ANCOVA) based on the data from a diabetes clinical trial. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model were also evaluated. Simulation results showed that Poisson model inflated type I error, while negative binomial model was overly conservative. However, after adjusting for dispersion, both Poisson and negative binomial models yielded slightly inflated type I errors, which were close to the nominal level and reasonable power. Reasonable control of type I error was associated with ANCOVA model. Rank ANCOVA model was associated with the greatest power and with reasonable control of type I error. Inflated type I error was observed with ZIP and ZINB models.

Pricing American Asian options with higher moments in the underlying distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Keng-Hsin; Wang, Kehluh; Hsu, Ming-Feng

2009-01-01

We develop a modified Edgeworth binomial model with higher moment consideration for pricing American Asian options. With lognormal underlying distribution for benchmark comparison, our algorithm is as precise as that of Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] if the number of the time steps increases. If the underlying distribution displays negative skewness and leptokurtosis as often observed for stock index returns, our estimates can work better than those in Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] and are very similar to the benchmarks in Hull and White [J. Hull, A. White, Efficient procedures for valuing European and American path-dependent options, J. Derivatives 1 (Fall) (1993) 21-31]. The numerical analysis shows that our modified Edgeworth binomial model can value American Asian options with greater accuracy and speed given higher moments in their underlying distribution.

Bayesian propensity scores for high-dimensional causal inference: A comparison of drug-eluting to bare-metal coronary stents.

PubMed

Spertus, Jacob V; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

2018-04-23

High-dimensional data provide many potential confounders that may bolster the plausibility of the ignorability assumption in causal inference problems. Propensity score methods are powerful causal inference tools, which are popular in health care research and are particularly useful for high-dimensional data. Recent interest has surrounded a Bayesian treatment of propensity scores in order to flexibly model the treatment assignment mechanism and summarize posterior quantities while incorporating variance from the treatment model. We discuss methods for Bayesian propensity score analysis of binary treatments, focusing on modern methods for high-dimensional Bayesian regression and the propagation of uncertainty. We introduce a novel and simple estimator for the average treatment effect that capitalizes on conjugacy of the beta and binomial distributions. Through simulations, we show the utility of horseshoe priors and Bayesian additive regression trees paired with our new estimator, while demonstrating the importance of including variance from the treatment regression model. An application to cardiac stent data with almost 500 confounders and 9000 patients illustrates approaches and facilitates comparison with existing alternatives. As measured by a falsifiability endpoint, we improved confounder adjustment compared with past observational research of the same problem. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Predictors and outcomes of non-adherence in patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis.

PubMed

Tohme, Fadi; Mor, Maria K; Pena-Polanco, Julio; Green, Jamie A; Fine, Michael J; Palevsky, Paul M; Weisbord, Steven D

2017-08-01

Predictors of and outcomes associated with non-adherent behavior among patients on chronic hemodialysis (HD) have been incompletely elucidated. We conducted a post hoc analysis of data from the SMILE trial to identify patient factors associated with non-adherence to dialysis-related treatments and the associations of non-adherence with clinical outcomes. We defined non-adherence as missed HD and abbreviated HD. We used negative binomial regression to model the associations of demographic and clinical factors with measures of non-adherence, and negative binomial and Cox regression to analyze the associations of non-adherence with hospitalizations and mortality, respectively. We followed 286 patients for up to 24 months. Factors independently associated with missing HD included Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday HD schedule [incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.85, p < 0.01], current smoking (IRR 2.22, p < 0.01), higher pain score (IRR 1.04, p < 0.01), lower healthy literacy (IRR 3.01, p < 0.01), lower baseline quality of life (IRR 0.89, p = 0.01), and younger age (IRR 1.35, p < 0.01). Factors independently associated with abbreviating HD included dialysis vintage (IRR 1.07, p < 0.01), higher pain score (IRR 1.02, p < 0.01), current non-smoking (IRR 1.32, p = 0.03), and younger age (IRR 1.22, p < 0.01). Abbreviating HD was independently associated with an increased number of total (IRR 1.70, p < 0.01) and ESRD-related (IRR 1.66, p < 0.01) hospitalizations, while missing HD was independently associated with mortality (HR 2.36, p = 0.04). We identified several previously described and novel factors independently associated with non-adherence to HD-related treatments, and independent associations of non-adherence with hospitalization and mortality. These findings should inform the development and implementation of interventions to improve adherence and reduce health resource utilization.

levels and sociodemographic correlates of accelerometer-based physical activity in Irish children: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Kearney, Patricia M; Keane, Eimear; Harrington, Janas M; Fitzgerald, Anthony P

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to explore levels and sociodemographic correlates of physical activity (PA) over 1 week using accelerometer data. Accelerometer data was collected over 1 week from 1075 8-11-year-old children in the cross-sectional Cork Children's Lifestyle Study. Threshold values were used to categorise activity intensity as sedentary, light, moderate or vigorous. Questionnaires collected data on demographic factors. Smoothed curves were used to display minute by minute variations. Binomial regression was used to identify factors correlated with the probability of meeting WHO 60 min moderate to vigorous PA guidelines. Overall, 830 children (mean (SD) age: 9.9(0.7) years, 56.3% boys) were included. From the binomial multiple regression analysis, boys were found more likely to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.28) than girls. Older children were less likely to meet guidelines than younger children (probability ratio 0.91, CI 0.87 to 0.95). Normal weight children were more likely than overweight and obese children to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.25, CI 1.16 to 1.34). Children in urban areas were more likely to meet guidelines than those in rural areas (probability ratio 1.19, CI 1.07 to 1.33). Longer daylight length days were associated with greater probability of meeting guidelines compared to shorter daylight length days. PA levels differed by individual factors including age, gender and weight status as well as by environmental factors including residence and daylight length. Less than one-quarter of children (26.8% boys, 16.2% girls) meet guidelines. Effective intervention policies are urgently needed to increase PA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Seroprevalence of HCV and HIV infection among clients of the nation's longest-standing statewide syringe exchange program: A cross-sectional study of Community Health Outreach Work to Prevent AIDS (CHOW).

PubMed

Salek, Thomas P; Katz, Alan R; Lenze, Stacy M; Lusk, Heather M; Li, Dongmei; Des Jarlais, Don C

2017-10-01

The Community Health Outreach Work to Prevent AIDS (CHOW) Project is the first and longest-standing statewide integrated and funded needle and syringe exchange program (SEP) in the US. Initiated on O'ahu in 1990, CHOW expanded statewide in 1993. The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalences of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and to characterize risk behaviors associated with infection among clients of a long-standing SEP through the analysis of the 2012 CHOW evaluation data. A cross-sectional sample of 130 CHOW Project clients was selected from January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2012. Questionnaires captured self-reported exposure information. HIV and HCV antibodies were detected via rapid, point-of-care FDA-approved tests. Log-binomial regressions were used to estimate prevalence proportion ratios (PPRs). A piecewise linear log-binomial regression model containing 1 spline knot was used to fit the age-HCV relationship. The estimated seroprevalence of HCV was 67.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]=59.5-75.8%). HIV seroprevalence was 2.3% (95% CI=0-4.9%). Anti-HCV prevalence demonstrated age-specific patterns, ranging from 31.6% through 90.9% in people who inject drugs (PWID) <30 to ≥60 years respectively. Age (continuous/year) prior to spline knot at 51.5 years (adjusted PPR [APPR]=1.03; 95% CI=1.02-1.05) and months exchanging syringes (quartiles) (APPR=1.92; 95% CI=1.3-3.29) were independently associated with anti-HCV prevalence. In Hawai'i, HCV prevalence among PWID is hyperendemic demonstrating age- and SEP duration-specific trends. Relatively low HIV prevalence compared with HCV prevalence reflects differences in transmissibility of these 2 blood-borne pathogens and suggests much greater efficacy of SEP for HIV prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models.

PubMed

Chan, Ta-Chien; Teng, Yung-Chu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang

2015-02-21

Emerging novel influenza outbreaks have increasingly been a threat to the public and a major concern of public health departments. Real-time data in seamless surveillance systems such as health insurance claims data for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) are ready for analysis, making it highly desirable to develop practical techniques to analyze such readymade data for outbreak detection so that the public can receive timely influenza epidemic warnings. This study proposes a simple and effective approach to analyze area-based health insurance claims data including outpatient and emergency department (ED) visits for early detection of any aberrations of ILI. The health insurance claims data during 2004-2009 from a national health insurance research database were used for developing early detection methods. The proposed approach fitted the daily new ILI visits and monitored the Pearson residuals directly for aberration detection. First, negative binomial regression was used for both outpatient and ED visits to adjust for potentially influential factors such as holidays, weekends, seasons, temporal dependence and temperature. Second, if the Pearson residuals exceeded 1.96, aberration signals were issued. The empirical validation of the model was done in 2008 and 2009. In addition, we designed a simulation study to compare the time of outbreak detection, non-detection probability and false alarm rate between the proposed method and modified CUSUM. The model successfully detected the aberrations of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus in northern, central and southern Taiwan. The proposed approach was more sensitive in identifying aberrations in ED visits than those in outpatient visits. Simulation studies demonstrated that the proposed approach could detect the aberrations earlier, and with lower non-detection probability and mean false alarm rate in detecting aberrations compared to modified CUSUM methods. The proposed simple approach was able to filter out temporal trends, adjust for temperature, and issue warning signals for the first wave of the influenza epidemic in a timely and accurate manner.

Factors associated with stigma attitude towards people living with HIV among general individuals in Heilongjiang, Northeast China.

PubMed

Li, Xin; Yuan, Lili; Li, Xiaoxia; Shi, Jingli; Jiang, Liying; Zhang, Chundi; Yang, Xiujing; Zhang, Yeli; Zhao, Donghui; Zhao, Yashuang

2017-02-17

HIV-related stigma always is major obstacles to an effective HIV response worldwide. The effect of HIV-related stigma on HIV prevention and treatment is particularly serious in China. This study was to examine stigma attitude towards people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) among general individuals in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China and the factors associated with stigma attitude, including socio-demographic factors and HIV/AIDS Knowledge. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in Heilongjiang Province, China. A total of 4050 general individuals with age 15-69 years in four villages in rural areas and two communities in urban areas were drawn using stratified cluster sampling. Standardized questionnaire interviews were administered. Univariate and multivariate log-binomial regression were performed to assess factors affecting stigma attitude towards PLWHA. The proportions of participants holding stigma attitude towards PLWHA were 49.6% among rural respondents and 37.0% among urban respondents (P < 0.001). Multivariate log binomial regression analysis among both rural participants (RR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.87-0.91, P < 0.001) and urban participants (RR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.87-0.91, P < 0.001) showed that greater knowledge of HIV transmission misconceptions was significantly associated with lower stigma attitude towards people living with HIV. And among urban participants, higher education level (high school vs. primary school or less: RR = 0.73, 95%CI: 0.62-0.87, P < 0.001; middle school vs. primary school or less: RR = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.71-0.97, P = 0.018) were also significantly associated with lower stigma attitude towards PLWHA. The level of stigma attitude towards PLWHA is higher in rural areas than in urban areas in Heilongjiang. Meanwhile, individuals who better were aware of HIV/AIDS transmission misconceptions may hold lower stigma attitude toward PLWHA whether among rural or urban residents.

The Predisposing Factors between Dental Caries and Deviations from Normal Weight.

PubMed

Chopra, Amandeep; Rao, Nanak Chand; Gupta, Nidhi; Vashisth, Shelja; Lakhanpal, Manav

2015-04-01

Dental caries and deviations from normal weight are two conditions which share several broadly predisposing factors. So it's important to understand any relationship between dental state and body weight if either is to be managed appropriately. The study was done to find out the correlation between body mass index (BMI), diet, and dental caries among 12-15-year-old schoolgoing children in Panchkula District. A multistage sample of 12-15-year-old school children (n = 810) in Panchkula district, Haryana was considered. Child demographic details and diet history for 5 days was recorded. Data regarding dental caries status was collected using World Health Organization (1997) format. BMI was calculated and categorized according to the World Health Organization classification system for BMI. The data were subjected to statistical analysis using chi-square test and binomial regression developed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) 20.0. The mean Decayed Missing Filled Teeth (DMFT) score was found to be 1.72 with decayed, missing, and filled teeth to be 1.22, 0.04, and 0.44, respectively. When the sample was assessed based on type of diet, it was found that vegetarians had higher mean DMFT (1.72) as compared to children having mixed diet. Overweight children had highest DMFT (3.21) which was followed by underweight (2.31) and obese children (2.23). Binomial regression revealed that females were 1.293 times at risk of developing caries as compared to males. Fair and poor Simplified-Oral Hygiene Index (OHI-S) showed 3.920 and 4.297 times risk of developing caries as compared to good oral hygiene, respectively. Upper high socioeconomic status (SES) is at most risk of developing caries. Underweight, overweight, and obese are at 2.7, 2.5, and 3 times risk of developing caries as compared to children with normal BMI, respectively. Dental caries and deviations from normal weight are two conditions which share several broadly predisposing factors such as diet, SES, lifestyle and other environmental factors.

Association between Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and occipital periventricular hyperintensities in a group of Chinese patients: an observational study.

PubMed

Duan, Dazhi; Shen, Lin; Cui, Chun; Shu, Tongsheng; Zheng, Jian

2017-02-27

While occipital periventricular hyperintensities (OPVHs) are among the most common mild white matter hyperintensities, the clinical factors associated with OPVHs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the role of clinical factors in development of pure OPVHs. This study included 97 patients with OPVHs and 73 healthy controls. Univariate analysis of clinical factors in OPVH patients and controls was followed by binomial logistic regression analysis to identify clinical factors significantly associated with OPVHs. Univariate analysis indicated that age, total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and apolipoprotein-B (Apo-B) levels differed significantly between the OPVH patients and controls (p < 0.05). Age and gender were correlated with OPVH scores (p < 0.05), while LDL-C, triglycerides, Apo-B and TC were anti-correlated with OPVHs scores (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that LDL-C is negatively correlated with OPVHs (p < 0.05), and age is positively correlated with OPVHs (p < 0.001). In summary, LDL-C was negatively and age was positively associated with OPVHs among Chinese patients in a hospital.

Intraurban Differences in the Use of Ambulatory Health Services in a Large Brazilian City

PubMed Central

Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Proietti, Fernando Augusto; Cesar, Cibele C.; Macinko, James

2010-01-01

A major goal of health systems is to reduce inequities in access to services, that is, to ensure that health care is provided based on health needs rather than social or economic factors. This study aims to identify the determinants of health services utilization among adults in a large Brazilian city and intraurban disparities in health care use. We combine household survey data with census-derived classification of social vulnerability of each household’s census tract. The dependent variable was utilization of physician services in the prior 12 months, and the independent variables included predisposing factors, health needs, enabling factors, and context. Prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated by the Hurdle regression model, which combined Poisson regression analysis of factors associated with any doctor visits (dichotomous variable) and zero-truncated negative binomial regression for the analysis of factors associated with the number of visits among those who had at least one. Results indicate that the use of health services was greater among women and increased with age, and was determined primarily by health needs and whether the individual had a regular doctor, even among those living in areas of the city with the worst socio-environmental indicators. The experience of Belo Horizonte may have implications for other world cities, particularly in the development and use of a comprehensive index to identify populations at risk and in order to guide expansion of primary health care services as a means of enhancing equity in health. PMID:21104332

Anaemia prevalence and associated sociodemographic and dietary factors among Palestinian adolescents in the West Bank.

PubMed

Mikki, N; Abdul-Rahim, H F; Stigum, H; Holmboe-Ottesen, G

2011-03-01

Anaemia still persists among children and women of childbearing age in Palestine. We investigated the prevalence of anaemia and associated factors among Palestinian school adolescents (aged 13-15 years) in Ramallah and Hebron governorates. Haemoglobin levels were measured to assess the prevalence of anaemia. The prevalence of anaemia was significantly higher in Hebron than in Ramallah among boys (22.5% versus 6.0% respectively), while among girls the figures were similar (9.2% and 9.3% respectively). Linear binomial regression analysis showed that among boys, anaemia was independently associated with residence in Hebron and higher standard of living, while among girls, anaemia was associated with higher father's education. Consumption of iron-rich foods, as recorded in food frequency questionnaires, had no significant effects on anaemia prevalence in both boys and girls.

Child Schooling in Ethiopia: The Role of Maternal Autonomy.

PubMed

Gebremedhin, Tesfaye Alemayehu; Mohanty, Itismita

2016-01-01

This paper examines the effects of maternal autonomy on child schooling outcomes in Ethiopia using a nationally representative Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey for 2011. The empirical strategy uses a Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression model to estimate years of schooling. An ordered probit model is also estimated to examine age grade distortion using a trichotomous dependent variable that captures three states of child schooling. The large sample size and the range of questions available in this dataset allow us to explore the influence of individual and household level social, economic and cultural factors on child schooling. The analysis finds statistically significant effects of maternal autonomy variables on child schooling in Ethiopia. The roles of maternal autonomy and other household-level factors on child schooling are important issues in Ethiopia, where health and education outcomes are poor for large segments of the population.

Factors associated with the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic growth.

PubMed

Law, Teik Hua; Noland, Robert B; Evans, Andrew W

2009-03-01

This paper examines the Kuznets curve relationship for motorcycle deaths. The Kuznets curve describes the inverted U-shape relationship between economic development and, in this case, motorcycle deaths. In early stages of development we expect deaths to increase with increasing motorization. Eventually deaths decrease as technical, policy and political institutions respond to demands for increased safety. We examine this effect as well as some of the factors which might explain the Kuznets relationship: in particular motorcycle helmet laws, medical care and technology improvements, and variables representing the quality of political institutions. We apply a fixed effects negative binomial regression analysis on a panel of 25 countries covering the period 1970-1999. Our results broadly suggest that implementation of road safety regulation, improvement in the quality of political institutions, and medical care and technology developments have contributed to reduced motorcycle deaths.

Predictors of postoperative bleeding after vitrectomy for vitreous hemorrhage in patients with diabetic retinopathy.

PubMed

Motoda, Saori; Shiraki, Nobuhiko; Ishihara, Takuma; Sakaguchi, Hirokazu; Kabata, Daijiro; Takahara, Mitsuyoshi; Kimura, Takekazu; Kozawa, Junji; Imagawa, Akihisa; Nishida, Kohji; Shintani, Ayumi; Iwahashi, Hiromi; Shimomura, Iichiro

2017-12-19

To clarify the association between perioperative variables and postoperative bleeding in pars plana vitrectomy for vitreous hemorrhage in diabetic retinopathy. The present retrospective study enrolled 72 eyes of 64 patients who were admitted to Osaka University Hospital between April 2010 and March 2014, and underwent vitrectomy for vitreous hemorrhage as a result of diabetic retinopathy. Postoperative bleeding developed in 12 eyes. Using binomial logistic regression analysis, we found that the duration of operation was the only significant variable associated with postoperative bleeding within 12 weeks after vitrectomy. Furthermore, Poisson regression analysis identified fasting blood glucose just before vitrectomy, no treatment with antiplatelet drugs and treatment with antihypertensive drugs, as well as duration of operation, to be significantly associated with the frequency of bleeding within 52 weeks after vitrectomy. Long duration of operation can be used to predict bleeding within both 12 and 52 weeks after vitrectomy. In addition, fasting blood glucose just before vitrectomy, no treatment with antiplatelet drugs and treatment with antihypertensive drugs might be risk factors for postoperative bleeding up to 1 year after vitrectomy. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Partners and Clients of Female Sex Workers in an Informal Urban Settlement in Nairobi, Kenya

PubMed Central

Ngugi, Elizabeth; Benoit, Cecilia; Hallgrimsdottir, Helga; Jansson, Mikael; Roth, Eric Abella

2013-01-01

This paper compares and contrasts number of partners and condom use behaviour for female sex workers (FSWs) and a sample of women working in other economic activities, with both samples drawn from the large informal settlement of Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya. As expected, univariate analysis revealed much higher numbers of overall sexual partners and higher levels of condom use among FSWs compared to Kibera women in other occupations. An unexpected finding, however, was that FSWs with a romantic partner had significantly fewer sexual partners per unit time than FSWs without such a partner. This finding held for multivariate analysis, with negative binomial regression analyses showing that having a romantic partner was significantly associated with reductions in total number of both sexual partners overall and with sexual partners who did not use condoms. In contrast, HIV status, education, number of immediate family members, and levels of alcohol consumption were non-significant factors for both regression analyses. Results suggest that FSWs’ romantic partners act as more than sources of possible HIV infection; rather, romantic partners appear to also have an important positive impact on health. We discuss this finding in light of possible harm reduction programmes focusing on FSWs and their romantic partners. PMID:21936649

Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

PubMed

Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

2017-09-06

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its shortcomings, and so further research is needed to identify optimal approaches for relative risk estimation within the multiple imputation framework.

A preliminary investigation of the relationships between historical crash and naturalistic driving.

PubMed

Pande, Anurag; Chand, Sai; Saxena, Neeraj; Dixit, Vinayak; Loy, James; Wolshon, Brian; Kent, Joshua D

2017-04-01

This paper describes a project that was undertaken using naturalistic driving data collected via Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to demonstrate a proof-of-concept for proactive safety assessments of crash-prone locations. The main hypothesis for the study is that the segments where drivers have to apply hard braking (higher jerks) more frequently might be the "unsafe" segments with more crashes over a long-term. The linear referencing methodology in ArcMap was used to link the GPS data with roadway characteristic data of US Highway 101 northbound (NB) and southbound (SB) in San Luis Obispo, California. The process used to merge GPS data with quarter-mile freeway segments for traditional crash frequency analysis is also discussed in the paper. A negative binomial regression analyses showed that proportion of high magnitude jerks while decelerating on freeway segments (from the driving data) was significantly related with the long-term crash frequency of those segments. A random parameter negative binomial model with uniformly distributed parameter for ADT and a fixed parameter for jerk provided a statistically significant estimate for quarter-mile segments. The results also indicated that roadway curvature and the presence of auxiliary lane are not significantly related with crash frequency for the highway segments under consideration. The results from this exploration are promising since the data used to derive the explanatory variable(s) can be collected using most off-the-shelf GPS devices, including many smartphones. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Logistic regression for dichotomized counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Das, Kalyan; Benecha, Habtamu; Stamm, John W

2016-12-01

Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren. © The Author(s) 2014.

Influence of physician factors on the effectiveness of a continuing medical education intervention.

PubMed

Flores, Sergio; Reyes, Hortensia; Perez-Cuevas, Ricardo

2006-01-01

Continuing medical education (CME) is essential for improving the quality of care in primary health care settings. This study's objective was to determine how the characteristics of family physicians influenced the effectiveness of a multifaceted CME intervention to improve the management of acute respiratory infection (ARI) or type 2 diabetes (DM2). A secondary analysis was conducted based on data from 121 family physicians, who participated in the educational intervention study. The outcome variable was positive change in physician's performance for treatment of ARI or DM2. The exposure variable was multifaceted CME intervention. Independent variables were professional physicians and organizational characteristics. Analysis included log binomial regression modeling. Factors influencing positive change included, for ARI, participation in the CME intervention and medical director interested in that condition and for DM2, participation in the CME intervention, medical director interested in DM2, and being a teacher. Physicians' characteristics and organizational environment influence the effectiveness of educational intervention and are therefore relevant to the implementation of CME strategies.

Hospitalization for primary care susceptible conditions, health spending and Family Health Strategy: an analysis of trends.

PubMed

Morimoto, Tissiani; Costa, Juvenal Soares Dias da

2017-03-01

The goal of this study was to analyze the trend over time of hospitalizations due to conditions susceptible to primary healthcare (HCSPC), and how it relates to healthcare spending and Family Health Strategy (FHS) coverage in the city of São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, between 2003 and 2012. This is an ecological, time-trend study. We used secondary data available in the Unified Healthcare System Hospital Data System, the Primary Care Department and Public Health Budget Data System. The analysis compared HCSPC using three-year moving averages and Poisson regressions or negative binomials. We found no statistical significance in decreasing HCSPC indicators and primary care spending in the period analyzed. Healthcare spending, per-capita spending and FHS coverage increased significantly, but we found no correlation with HCSPC. The results show that, despite increases in the funds invested and population covered by FHS, they are still insufficient to deliver the level of care the population requires.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic tests accounting for disease prevalence: a new model using trivariate copulas.

PubMed

Hoyer, A; Kuss, O

2015-05-20

In real life and somewhat contrary to biostatistical textbook knowledge, sensitivity and specificity (and not only predictive values) of diagnostic tests can vary with the underlying prevalence of disease. In meta-analysis of diagnostic studies, accounting for this fact naturally leads to a trivariate expansion of the traditional bivariate logistic regression model with random study effects. In this paper, a new model is proposed using trivariate copulas and beta-binomial marginal distributions for sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence as an expansion of the bivariate model. Two different copulas are used, the trivariate Gaussian copula and a trivariate vine copula based on the bivariate Plackett copula. This model has a closed-form likelihood, so standard software (e.g., SAS PROC NLMIXED) can be used. The results of a simulation study have shown that the copula models perform at least as good but frequently better than the standard model. The methods are illustrated by two examples. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dental enamel defects, caries experience and oral health-related quality of life: a cohort study.

PubMed

Arrow, P

2017-06-01

The impact of enamel defects of the first permanent molars on caries experience and child oral health-related quality of life was evaluated in a cohort study. Children who participated in a study of enamel defects of the first permanent molars 8 years earlier were invited for a follow-up assessment. Consenting children completed the Child Perception Questionnaire and the faces Modified Child Dental Anxiety Scale, and were examined by two calibrated examiners. ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, negative binomial and logistic regression were used for data analyses. One hundred and eleven children returned a completed questionnaire and 91 were clinically examined. Negative binomial regression found that oral health impacts were associated with gender (boys, risk ratio (RR) = 0.73, P = 0.03) and decayed, missing or filled permanent teeth (DMFT) (RR = 1.1, P = 0.04). The mean DMFT of children were sound (0.9, standard deviation (SD) = 1.4), diffuse defects (0.8, SD = 1.7), demarcated defects (1.5, SD = 1.4) and pit defects (1.3, SD = 2.3) (Kruskal-Wallis, P = 0.05). Logistic regression of first permanent molar caries found higher odds of caries experience with baseline primary tooth caries experience (odds ratio (OR) = 1.5, P = 0.01), the number of teeth affected by enamel defects (OR = 1.9, P = 0.05) and lower odds with the presence of diffuse enamel defects (OR = 0.1, P = 0.04). The presence of diffuse enamel defects was associated with lower odds of caries experience. © 2016 Australian Dental Association.

Prediction of different ovarian responses using anti-Müllerian hormone following a long agonist treatment protocol for IVF.

PubMed

Heidar, Z; Bakhtiyari, M; Mirzamoradi, M; Zadehmodarres, S; Sarfjoo, F S; Mansournia, M A

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to predict the poor and excessive ovarian response using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels following a long agonist protocol in IVF candidates. Through a prospective cohort study, the type of relationship and appropriate scale for AMH were determined using the fractional polynomial regression. To determine the effect of AMH on the outcomes of ovarian stimulation and different ovarian responses, the multi-nominal and negative binomial regression models were fitted using backward stepwise method. The ovarian response of study subject who entered a standard long-term treatment cycle with GnRH agonist was evaluated using prediction model, separately and in combined models with (ROC) curves. The use of standard long-term treatments with GnRH agonist led to positive pregnancy test results in 30% of treated patients. With each unit increase in the log of AMH, the odds ratio of having poor response compared to normal response decreases by 64% (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.68). Also the results of negative binomial regression model indicated that for one unit increase in the log of AMH blood levels, the odds of releasing an oocyte increased 24% (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35). The optimal cut-off points of AMH for predicting excessive and poor ovarian responses were 3.4 and 1.2 ng/ml, respectively, with area under curves of 0.69 (0.60-0.77) and 0.76 (0.66-0.86), respectively. By considering the age of the patient undergoing infertility treatment as a variable affecting ovulation, use of AMH levels showed to be a good test to discriminate between different ovarian responses.

Factors associated with dental caries in a group of American Indian children at age 36 months.

PubMed

Warren, John J; Blanchette, Derek; Dawson, Deborah V; Marshall, Teresa A; Phipps, Kathy R; Starr, Delores; Drake, David R

2016-04-01

Early childhood caries (ECC) is rampant among American Indian children, but there has been relatively little study of this problem. This article reports on risk factors for caries for a group of American Indian children at age 36 months as part of a longitudinal study. Pregnant women from a Northern Plains Tribal community were recruited to participate in a longitudinal study of caries and caries risk factors. Standardized dental examinations were completed on children, and questionnaires were completed by mothers at baseline and when children were 4, 8, 12, 16, 22, 28, and 36 months of age. Examinations were surface-specific for dental caries, and the questionnaires collected data on demographic, dietary, and behavioral factors. Nonparametric bivariate tests and logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for caries at 36 months, and negative binomial regression was used to identify factors related to caries severity (dmf counts). Among the 232 children, and caries prevalence for cavitated lesions was 80%, with an additional 15% having only noncavitated lesions. The mean dmfs was 9.6, and of the total dmfs, nearly 62% of affected surfaces were decayed, 31% were missing, and 7% were filled. Logistic regression identified higher added-sugar beverage consumption, younger maternal age at baseline, higher maternal DMFS at baseline, and greater number of people in the household as significant (P < 0.05) risk factors. Negative binomial regression found that only maternal DMFS was associated with child dmf counts. By the age of 36 months, dental caries is nearly universal in this population of American Indian children. Caries risk factors included sugared beverage consumption, greater household size, and maternal factors, but further analyses are needed to better understand caries in this population. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cocoa Farmers’ Compliance with Safety Precautions in Spraying Agrochemicals and Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in Cameroon

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The inability of farmers to comply with essential precautions in the course of spraying agrochemicals remains a policy dilemma, especially in developing countries. The objectives of this paper were to assess compliance of cocoa farmers with agrochemical safety measures, analyse the factors explaining involvement of cocoa farmers in the practice of reusing agrochemical containers and wearing of personal protective equipment (PPE). Data were collected with structured questionnaires from 667 cocoa farmers from the Centre and South West regions in Cameroon. Data analyses were carried out with Probit regression and Negative Binomial regression models. The results showed that average cocoa farm sizes were 3.55 ha and 2.82 ha in South West and Centre regions, respectively, and 89.80% and 42.64% complied with manufacturers’ instructions in the use of insecticides. Eating or drinking while spraying insecticides and fungicides was reported by 4.20% and 5.10% of all farmers in the two regions, respectively. However, 37.78% and 57.57% of all farmers wore hand gloves and safety boots while spraying insecticides in the South West and Centre regions of Cameroon, respectively. In addition, 7.80% of all the farmers would wash agrochemical containers and use them at home, while 42.43% would wash and use them on their farms. Probit regression results showed that probability of reusing agrochemical containers was significantly influenced (p < 0.05) by region of residence of cocoa farmers, gender, possession of formal education and farming as primary occupation. The Negative Binomial regression results showed that the log of number PPE worn was significantly influenced (p < 0.10) by region, marital status, attainment of formal education, good health, awareness of manufacturers’ instructions, land area and contact index. It was among others concluded that efforts to train farmers on the need to be familiar with manufacturers’ instructions and use PPE would enhance their safety in the course of spraying agrochemicals. PMID:29438333

Cocoa Farmers' Compliance with Safety Precautions in Spraying Agrochemicals and Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in Cameroon.

PubMed

Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel

2018-02-13

The inability of farmers to comply with essential precautions in the course of spraying agrochemicals remains a policy dilemma, especially in developing countries. The objectives of this paper were to assess compliance of cocoa farmers with agrochemical safety measures, analyse the factors explaining involvement of cocoa farmers in the practice of reusing agrochemical containers and wearing of personal protective equipment (PPE). Data were collected with structured questionnaires from 667 cocoa farmers from the Centre and South West regions in Cameroon. Data analyses were carried out with Probit regression and Negative Binomial regression models. The results showed that average cocoa farm sizes were 3.55 ha and 2.82 ha in South West and Centre regions, respectively, and 89.80% and 42.64% complied with manufacturers' instructions in the use of insecticides. Eating or drinking while spraying insecticides and fungicides was reported by 4.20% and 5.10% of all farmers in the two regions, respectively. However, 37.78% and 57.57% of all farmers wore hand gloves and safety boots while spraying insecticides in the South West and Centre regions of Cameroon, respectively. In addition, 7.80% of all the farmers would wash agrochemical containers and use them at home, while 42.43% would wash and use them on their farms. Probit regression results showed that probability of reusing agrochemical containers was significantly influenced ( p < 0.05) by region of residence of cocoa farmers, gender, possession of formal education and farming as primary occupation. The Negative Binomial regression results showed that the log of number PPE worn was significantly influenced ( p < 0.10) by region, marital status, attainment of formal education, good health, awareness of manufacturers' instructions, land area and contact index. It was among others concluded that efforts to train farmers on the need to be familiar with manufacturers' instructions and use PPE would enhance their safety in the course of spraying agrochemicals.

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Hu, Wei-Ping; Ji, Qing-Hai

2017-04-25

The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk for both CSS (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.187-1.339, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.328, 95% CI: 1.266-1.392, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed married patients were more likely to be diagnosed at earlier stage (P < 0.001) and receive surgery (P < 0.001). Married patients still demonstrated better prognosis in the 1:1 matched group analysis (CSS: 62.9% vs 60.8%, OS: 52.3% vs 46.5%). 11022 eligible OCSCC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, including 5902 married and 5120 unmarried individuals. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to analyze survival and mortality risk. Influence of marital status on stage, age at diagnosis and selection of treatment was determined by binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Propensity score matching method was adopted to perform a 1:1 matched cohort. Marriage has an independently protective effect on OCSCC survival. Earlier diagnosis and more sufficient treatment are possible explanations. Besides, even after 1:1 matching, survival advantage of married group still exists, indicating that spousal support from other aspects may also play an important role.

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-ting; Hu, Wei-ping; Ji, Qing-hai

2017-01-01

Background The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Results Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk for both CSS (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.187–1.339, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.328, 95% CI: 1.266–1.392, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed married patients were more likely to be diagnosed at earlier stage (P < 0.001) and receive surgery (P < 0.001). Married patients still demonstrated better prognosis in the 1:1 matched group analysis (CSS: 62.9% vs 60.8%, OS: 52.3% vs 46.5%). Materials and Methods 11022 eligible OCSCC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, including 5902 married and 5120 unmarried individuals. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to analyze survival and mortality risk. Influence of marital status on stage, age at diagnosis and selection of treatment was determined by binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Propensity score matching method was adopted to perform a 1:1 matched cohort. Conclusions Marriage has an independently protective effect on OCSCC survival. Earlier diagnosis and more sufficient treatment are possible explanations. Besides, even after 1:1 matching, survival advantage of married group still exists, indicating that spousal support from other aspects may also play an important role. PMID:28415710

Solar San Diego: The Impact of Binomial Rate Structures on Real PV-Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Geet, O.; Brown, E.; Blair, T.

2008-01-01

There is confusion in the marketplace regarding the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on the user's actual electricity bill under California Net Energy Metering, particularly with binomial tariffs (those that include both demand and energy charges) and time-of-use (TOU) rate structures. The City of San Diego has extensive real-time electrical metering on most of its buildings and PV systems, with interval data for overall consumption and PV electrical production available for multiple years. This paper uses 2007 PV-system data from two city facilities to illustrate the impacts of binomial rate designs. The analysis will determine the energy and demand savingsmore » that the PV systems are achieving relative to the absence of systems. A financial analysis of PV-system performance under various rates structures is presented. The data revealed that actual demand and energy use benefits of bionomial tariffs increase in summer months, when solar resources allow for maximized electricity production. In a binomial tariff system, varying on- and semi-peak times can result in approximately $1,100 change in demand charges per month over not having a PV system in place, an approximate 30% cost savings. The PV systems are also shown to have a 30%-50% reduction in facility energy charges in 2007. Future work will include combining demand and electricity charges and increasing the breadth of rate structures tested, including the impacts of non-coincident demand charges.« less

Distinguishing between Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wroughton, Jacqueline; Cole, Tarah

2013-01-01

Recognizing the differences between three discrete distributions (Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial) can be challenging for students. We present an activity designed to help students differentiate among these distributions. In addition, we present assessment results in the form of pre- and post-tests that were designed to assess the…

Library Book Circulation and the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gelman, E.; Sichel, H. S.

1987-01-01

Argues that library book circulation is a binomial rather than a Poisson process, and that individual book popularities are continuous beta distributions. Three examples demonstrate the superiority of beta over negative binomial distribution, and it is suggested that a bivariate-binomial process would be helpful in predicting future book…

Development of binomial sequential sampling plans for forecasting Listronotus maculicollis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) larvae based on the relationship to adult counts and turfgrass damage.

PubMed

McGraw, Benjamin A; Koppenhöfer, Albrecht M

2009-06-01

Binomial sequential sampling plans were developed to forecast weevil Listronotus maculicollis Kirby (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), larval damage to golf course turfgrass and aid in the development of integrated pest management programs for the weevil. Populations of emerging overwintered adults were sampled over a 2-yr period to determine the relationship between adult counts, larval density, and turfgrass damage. Larval density and composition of preferred host plants (Poa annua L.) significantly affected the expression of turfgrass damage. Multiple regression indicates that damage may occur in moderately mixed P. annua stands with as few as 10 larvae per 0.09 m2. However, > 150 larvae were required before damage became apparent in pure Agrostis stolonifera L. plots. Adult counts during peaks in emergence as well as cumulative counts across the emergence period were significantly correlated to future densities of larvae. Eight binomial sequential sampling plans based on two tally thresholds for classifying infestation (T = 1 and two adults) and four adult density thresholds (0.5, 0.85, 1.15, and 1.35 per 3.34 m2) were developed to forecast the likelihood of turfgrass damage by using adult counts during peak emergence. Resampling for validation of sample plans software was used to validate sampling plans with field-collected data sets. All sampling plans were found to deliver accurate classifications (correct decisions were made between 84.4 and 96.8%) in a practical timeframe (average sampling cost < 22.7 min).

Zero adjusted models with applications to analysing helminths count data.

PubMed

Chipeta, Michael G; Ngwira, Bagrey M; Simoonga, Christopher; Kazembe, Lawrence N

2014-11-27

It is common in public health and epidemiology that the outcome of interest is counts of events occurrence. Analysing these data using classical linear models is mostly inappropriate, even after transformation of outcome variables due to overdispersion. Zero-adjusted mixture count models such as zero-inflated and hurdle count models are applied to count data when over-dispersion and excess zeros exist. Main objective of the current paper is to apply such models to analyse risk factors associated with human helminths (S. haematobium) particularly in a case where there's a high proportion of zero counts. The data were collected during a community-based randomised control trial assessing the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Malawi, and a school-based cross sectional epidemiology survey in Zambia. Count data models including traditional (Poisson and negative binomial) models, zero modified models (zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) and hurdle models (Poisson logit hurdle and negative binomial logit hurdle) were fitted and compared. Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the negative binomial logit hurdle (NBLH) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) showed best performance in both datasets. With regards to zero count capturing, these models performed better than other models. This paper showed that zero modified NBLH and ZINB models are more appropriate methods for the analysis of data with excess zeros. The choice between the hurdle and zero-inflated models should be based on the aim and endpoints of the study.

Differences between seven measures of self-reported numbers of clients of female sex workers in southern India: implications for individual- and population-level analysis.

PubMed

Deering, Kathleen N; Vickerman, P; Pickles, M; Moses, S; Blanchard, J F; Ramesh, B M; Isac, S; Boily, M-C

2013-02-01

Quantifying sexual activity of sub-populations with high-risk sexual behaviour is important in understanding HIV epidemiology. This study examined inconsistency of seven outcomes measuring self-reported clients per month (CPM) of female sex workers (FSWs) in southern India and implications for individual/population-level analysis. Multivariate negative binomial regression was used to compare key social/environmental factors associated with each outcome. A transmission dynamics model was used to assess the impact of differences between outcomes on population-level FSW/client HIV prevalence. Outcomes based on 'clients per last working day' produced lower estimates than those based on 'clients per typical day'. Although the outcomes were strongly correlated, their averages differed by approximately two-fold (range 39.0-79.1 CPM). The CPM measure chosen did not greatly influence standard epidemiological 'risk factor' analysis. Differences across outcomes influenced HIV prevalence predictions. Due to this uncertainty, we recommend basing population-based estimates on the range of outcomes, particularly when assessing the impact of interventions.

Comparison of escitalopram versus citalopram for the treatment of major depressive disorder in a geriatric population.

PubMed

Wu, Eric; Greenberg, Paul E; Yang, Elaine; Yu, Andrew; Erder, M Haim

2008-09-01

To compare escitalopram versus citalopram for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in geriatric patients. Administrative claims data (2003-2005) were analyzed for patients aged > or =65 years with at least one inpatient claim or two independent medical claims associated with MDD diagnosis. Patients were continuously enrolled for at least 12 months, filled at least one prescription for citalopram or escitalopram and had no second generation antidepressant use during the 6-month pre-index date. Contingency table analysis and survival analysis were used to compare outcomes between the two treatment groups. Treatment persistence, hospitalization utilization, and prescription drug, medical, and total healthcare costs were analyzed. Outcomes were compared between patients initiated on escitalopram and those initiated on citalopram both descriptively and using multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline characteristics. Among 691 geriatric patients, escitalopram-treated patients (n=459) were less likely to discontinue treatment (hazard ratio [HR]=0.83, p=0.049) or switch to another second generation antidepressant (HR=0.62, p=0.001) compared to patients treated with citalopram (n=232). Patients treated with escitalopram had a significantly lower hospitalization rate (31.2% vs. 38.8%, p=0.045) and 66% fewer hospitalization days based on negative binomial regression (p<0.001). While escitalopram patients had comparable prescription drug costs, they had lower total medical service costs (regression: $9748 vs. $19,208, p<0.001) and lower total healthcare costs (regression: $11,434 vs. $20,601, p<0.001). This study's limitations include its small sample size, short observational periods and exclusivity of indirect costs. Geriatric patients treated with escitalopram had better treatment persistence, fewer hospitalizations, and lower medical and total healthcare costs than patients treated with citalopram. Most of the cost reduction was attributable to significantly lower hospitalizations and total medical costs.

Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

2011-01-01

Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial manatee surveys. 5. Overestimation of abundance by binomial mixture models owing to non-independent detections is problematic for ecological studies, but also for conservation. For example, in the case of endangered species, it could lead to inappropriate management decisions, such as downlisting. These issues will be increasingly relevant as more ecologists apply flexible N-mixture models to ecological data.

Environmental Risk Factors influencing Bicycle Theft: A Spatial Analysis in London, UK.

PubMed

Mburu, Lucy Waruguru; Helbich, Marco

2016-01-01

Urban authorities are continuously drawing up policies to promote cycling among commuters. However, these initiatives are counterproductive for the targeted objectives because they increase opportunities for bicycle theft. This paper explores Inner London as a case study to address place-specific risk factors for bicycle theft at the street-segment level while controlling for seasonal variation. The presence of certain public amenities (e.g., bicycle stands, railway stations, pawnshops) was evaluated against locations of bicycle theft between 2013 and 2016 and risk effects were estimated using negative binomial regression models. Results showed that a greater level of risk stemmed from land-use facilities than from area-based socioeconomic status. The presence of facilities such as train stations, vacant houses, pawnbrokers and payday lenders increased bicycle theft, but no evidence was found that linked police stations with crime levels. The findings have significant implications for urban crime prevention with respect to non-residential land use.

The Effect of Exposure to Ultraviolet Radiation in Infancy on Melanoma Risk.

PubMed

Gefeller, Olaf; Fiessler, Cornelia; Radespiel-Tröger, Martin; Uter, Wolfgang; Pfahlberg, Annette B

2016-01-01

Evidence on the effect of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure in infancy on melanoma risk in later life is scarce. Three recent studies suffering from methodological shortcomings suggested that people born in spring carry a higher melanoma risk. Data from the Bavarian population-based cancer registry on 28374 incident melanoma cases between 2002 and 2012 were analyzed to reexamine this finding. Crude and adjusted analyses - using negative binomial regression models - were performed addressing the relationship. In the crude analysis, the birth months March - May were significantly overrepresented among melanoma cases. However, after additionally adjusting for the birth month distribution of the Bavarian population, the ostensible seasonal effect disappeared. Similar results emerged in all subgroup analyses. Our large registry-based study provides no evidence that people born in spring carry a higher risk for developing melanoma in later life and thus lends no support to the hypothesis of higher UVR-susceptibility during the first months of life.

Child Schooling in Ethiopia: The Role of Maternal Autonomy

PubMed Central

Mohanty, Itismita

2016-01-01

This paper examines the effects of maternal autonomy on child schooling outcomes in Ethiopia using a nationally representative Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey for 2011. The empirical strategy uses a Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression model to estimate years of schooling. An ordered probit model is also estimated to examine age grade distortion using a trichotomous dependent variable that captures three states of child schooling. The large sample size and the range of questions available in this dataset allow us to explore the influence of individual and household level social, economic and cultural factors on child schooling. The analysis finds statistically significant effects of maternal autonomy variables on child schooling in Ethiopia. The roles of maternal autonomy and other household-level factors on child schooling are important issues in Ethiopia, where health and education outcomes are poor for large segments of the population. PMID:27942039

A Stab in the Dark?: A Research Note on Temporal Patterns of Street Robbery.

PubMed

Tompson, Lisa; Bowers, Kate

2013-11-01

Test the influence of darkness in the street robbery crime event alongside temperature. Negative binomial regression models tested darkness and temperature as predictors of street robbery. Units of analysis were four 6-hr time intervals in two U.K. study areas that have different levels of darkness and variations of temperature throughout the year. Darkness is a key factor related to robbery events in both study areas. Traversing from full daylight to full darkness increased the predicted volume of robbery by a multiple of 2.6 in London and 1.2 in Glasgow. Temperature was significant only in the London study area. Interaction terms did not enhance the predictive power of the models. Darkness is an important driving factor in seasonal variation of street robbery. A further implication of the research is that time of the day patterns are crucial to understanding seasonal trends in crime data.

Older driver fitness-to-drive evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

PubMed

Guo, Feng; Fang, Youjia; Antin, Jonathan F

2015-09-01

As our driving population continues to age, it is becoming increasingly important to find a small set of easily administered fitness metrics that can meaningfully and reliably identify at-risk seniors requiring more in-depth evaluation of their driving skills and weaknesses. Sixty driver assessment metrics related to fitness-to-drive were examined for 20 seniors who were followed for a year using the naturalistic driving paradigm. Principal component analysis and negative binomial regression modeling approaches were used to develop parsimonious models relating the most highly predictive of the driver assessment metrics to the safety-related outcomes observed in the naturalistic driving data. This study provides important confirmation using naturalistic driving methods of the relationship between contrast sensitivity and crash-related events. The results of this study provide crucial information on the continuing journey to identify metrics and protocols that could be applied to determine seniors' fitness to drive. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Enrollment Management in Medical School Admissions: A Novel Evidence-Based Approach at One Institution.

PubMed

Burkhardt, John C; DesJardins, Stephen L; Teener, Carol A; Gay, Steven E; Santen, Sally A

2016-11-01

In higher education, enrollment management has been developed to accurately predict the likelihood of enrollment of admitted students. This allows evidence to dictate numbers of interviews scheduled, offers of admission, and financial aid package distribution. The applicability of enrollment management techniques for use in medical education was tested through creation of a predictive enrollment model at the University of Michigan Medical School (U-M). U-M and American Medical College Application Service data (2006-2014) were combined to create a database including applicant demographics, academic application scores, institutional financial aid offer, and choice of school attended. Binomial logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression models were estimated in order to study factors related to enrollment at the local institution versus elsewhere and to groupings of competing peer institutions. A predictive analytic "dashboard" was created for practical use. Both models were significant at P < .001 and had similar predictive performance. In the binomial model female, underrepresented minority students, grade point average, Medical College Admission Test score, admissions committee desirability score, and most individual financial aid offers were significant (P < .05). The significant covariates were similar in the multinomial model (excluding female) and provided separate likelihoods of students enrolling at different institutional types. An enrollment-management-based approach would allow medical schools to better manage the number of students they admit and target recruitment efforts to improve their likelihood of success. It also performs a key institutional research function for understanding failed recruitment of highly desirable candidates.

[Epidemiology of scrub typhus and influencing factors in Yunnan province, 2006-2013].

PubMed

Sun, Y; Shi, C; Li, X L; Fang, L Q; Cao, W C

2018-01-10

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhu s and influencing factors in Yunnan province, and provide further information for the prevention and control of scrub typhus. Methods: Based on the incidence data of scrub typhus reported in Yunnan from 2006 to 2013, the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus were analyzed and related environmental factors were identified with panel negative binomial regression model. Results: A total of 8 980 scrub typhus cases were reported during 2006-2013 in Yunnan. The average annual incidence was 2.46/100 000, with an uptrend observed. Natural focus expansion was found, affecting 71.3% of the counties in 2013. The epidemic mainly occurred in summer and autumn with the incidence peak during July-October. The annual incidence was higher in females than in males. More cases occurred in children and farmers, the proportions of cases in farmers and pre-school aged children showed an obvious increase. Panel negative binomial regression model indicated that the transmission risk of scrub typhus was positive associated with monthly temperature and monthly relative humidity. Furthermore, an "U" pattern between the risk and the increased coverage of cropland and grassland as well as an "inverted-U" pattern between the risk and increased coverage of shrub were observed. Conclusion: It is necessary to strengthen the scrub typhus surveillance in warm and moist areas as well as the areas with high coverage of cropland and grassland in Yunnan, and the health education in children and farmers who are at high risk.

The effects of combat exposure, abusive violence, and sense of coherence on PTSD and depression in Portuguese colonial war veterans.

PubMed

Ferrajão, Paulo Correia; Oliveira, Rui Aragão

2016-01-01

We analyzed the effects of 3 war components-combat exposure (CES), observation of abusive violence (OBS), and participation in abusive violence (PARTC)-and sense of coherence (SOC) on the development of both posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among a sample of war veterans. We also analyzed the role of SOC as a mediator of the effects of CES, OBS, and PARTC on both depression and PTSD symptoms. Sample was composed of 120 Portuguese Colonial War veterans. A binomial logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the effects of these variables on depression and PTSD diagnosis. Mediation test was performed by conducting several hierarchical regression analyses. Results showed that OBS and PARTC, and lower levels of SOC were associated with increased odds for exceeding the clinical cutoff scores for diagnosis of depression. All variables were associated with increased odds for exceeding the clinical cutoff scores for diagnosis of PTSD. In mediation analysis, at first step, PARTC was not a significant predictor of both PTSD and depression symptoms, and PARTC did not enter in subsequent analysis. SOC was a full mediator of the effects of OBS and CES on both depression and PTSD symptoms. We propose that treatment of war veterans should aim the reconciliation of traumatic incongruent experiences in veterans' personal schemas to strengthen veterans' sense of coherence, especially for those exposed to acts of abusive violence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhu; Shuangge, Ma; Wang, Ching-Yun

2017-01-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using an open-source R package mpath. PMID:26059498

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of antibiotic consumption on antibiotic resistance

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Greater use of antibiotics during the past 50 years has exerted selective pressure on susceptible bacteria and may have favoured the survival of resistant strains. Existing information on antibiotic resistance patterns from pathogens circulating among community-based patients is substantially less than from hospitalized patients on whom guidelines are often based. We therefore chose to assess the relationship between the antibiotic resistance pattern of bacteria circulating in the community and the consumption of antibiotics in the community. Methods Both gray literature and published scientific literature in English and other European languages was examined. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyse whether studies found a positive relationship between antibiotic consumption and resistance. A subsequent meta-analysis and meta-regression was conducted for studies for which a common effect size measure (odds ratio) could be calculated. Results Electronic searches identified 974 studies but only 243 studies were considered eligible for inclusion by the two independent reviewers who extracted the data. A binomial test revealed a positive relationship between antibiotic consumption and resistance (p < .001) but multiple regression modelling did not produce any significant predictors of study outcome. The meta-analysis generated a significant pooled odds ratio of 2.3 (95% confidence interval 2.2 to 2.5) with a meta-regression producing several significant predictors (F(10,77) = 5.82, p < .01). Countries in southern Europe produced a stronger link between consumption and resistance than other regions. Conclusions Using a large set of studies we found that antibiotic consumption is associated with the development of antibiotic resistance. A subsequent meta-analysis, with a subsample of the studies, generated several significant predictors. Countries in southern Europe produced a stronger link between consumption and resistance than other regions so efforts at reducing antibiotic consumption may need to be strengthened in this area. Increased consumption of antibiotics may not only produce greater resistance at the individual patient level but may also produce greater resistance at the community, country, and regional levels, which can harm individual patients. PMID:24405683

Umbral Calculus and Holonomic Modules in Positive Characteristic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochubei, Anatoly N.

2006-03-01

In the framework of analysis over local fields of positive characteristic, we develop algebraic tools for introducing and investigating various polynomial systems. In this survey paper we describe a function field version of umbral calculus developed on the basis of a relation of binomial type satisfied by the Carlitz polynomials. We consider modules over the Weyl-Carlitz ring, a function field counterpart of the Weyl algebra. It is shown that some basic objects of function field arithmetic, like the Carlitz module, Thakur's hypergeometric polynomials, and analogs of binomial coefficients arising in the positive characteristic version of umbral calculus, generate holonomic modules.

Reliability of environmental sampling culture results using the negative binomial intraclass correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Aly, Sharif S; Zhao, Jianyang; Li, Ben; Jiang, Jiming

2014-01-01

The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is commonly used to estimate the similarity between quantitative measures obtained from different sources. Overdispersed data is traditionally transformed so that linear mixed model (LMM) based ICC can be estimated. A common transformation used is the natural logarithm. The reliability of environmental sampling of fecal slurry on freestall pens has been estimated for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis using the natural logarithm transformed culture results. Recently, the negative binomial ICC was defined based on a generalized linear mixed model for negative binomial distributed data. The current study reports on the negative binomial ICC estimate which includes fixed effects using culture results of environmental samples. Simulations using a wide variety of inputs and negative binomial distribution parameters (r; p) showed better performance of the new negative binomial ICC compared to the ICC based on LMM even when negative binomial data was logarithm, and square root transformed. A second comparison that targeted a wider range of ICC values showed that the mean of estimated ICC closely approximated the true ICC.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the relationship between socioeconomic factors and stroke in the Portuguese mainland population under 65 years old.

PubMed

Oliveira, André; Cabral, António J R; Mendes, Jorge M; Martins, Maria R O; Cabral, Pedro

2015-11-04

Stroke risk has been shown to display varying patterns of geographic distribution amongst countries but also between regions of the same country. Traditionally a disease of older persons, a global 25% increase in incidence instead was noticed between 1990 and 2010 in persons aged 20-≤64 years, particularly in low- and medium-income countries. Understanding spatial disparities in the association between socioeconomic factors and stroke is critical to target public health initiatives aiming to mitigate or prevent this disease, including in younger persons. We aimed to identify socioeconomic determinants of geographic disparities of stroke risk in people <65 years old, in municipalities of mainland Portugal, and the spatiotemporal variation of the association between these determinants and stroke risk during two study periods (1992-1996 and 2002-2006). Poisson and negative binomial global regression models were used to explore determinants of disease risk. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) represents a distinctive approach, allowing estimation of local regression coefficients. Models for both study periods were identified. Significant variables included education attainment, work hours per week and unemployment. Local Poisson GWR models achieved the best fit and evidenced spatially varying regression coefficients. Spatiotemporal inequalities were observed in significant variables, with dissimilarities between men and women. This study contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between stroke and socioeconomic factors in the population <65 years of age, one age group seldom analysed separately. It can thus help to improve the targeting of public health initiatives, even more in a context of economic crisis.

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G

2009-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152

A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A

2015-01-01

Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels), I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data. Finally, both OLRE and Beta-Binomial models performed poorly when models contained <5 levels of the random intercept term, especially for estimating variance components, and this effect appeared independent of total sample size. These results suggest that OLRE are a useful tool for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data, but that they do not perform well in all circumstances and researchers should take care to verify the robustness of parameter estimates of OLRE models.

An ecological analysis of prison overcrowding and suicide rates in England and Wales, 2000-2014.

PubMed

van Ginneken, Esther F J C; Sutherland, Alex; Molleman, Toon

Prisoners are at a greatly increased risk of suicides compared to the general population. Differences in suicide risk can be partly explained by individual risk factors, but the contribution of prison characteristics remains unclear. Overcrowded prisons have higher suicide rates, but this may be related to prison function, security level, population size and turnover. The aim of the current study was to investigate the contribution of each of these prison characteristics to suicide rates, using data from the Ministry of Justice for adult prisons in England and Wales from 2000 to 2014. Negative binomial regression analysis showed that larger population size, higher turnover, higher security and public management were associated with higher suicide rates. When controlling for these factors, overcrowding was not found to be related to suicide rates. Questions remain about the causal mechanisms underlying variation in prison suicides and the impact of the lived experience of overcrowding. Further research is needed to examine the relative contribution of prison and prisoner characteristics to suicides. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gun control and suicide: the impact of state firearm regulations in the United States, 1995-2004.

PubMed

Rodríguez Andrés, Antonio; Hempstead, Katherine

2011-06-01

To empirically assess the impact of firearm regulation on male suicides. A negative binomial regression model was applied by using a panel of state level data for the years 1995-2004. The model was used to identify the association between several firearm regulations and male suicide rates. Our empirical analysis suggest that firearms regulations which function to reduce overall gun availability have a significant deterrent effect on male suicide, while regulations that seek to prohibit high risk individuals from owning firearms have a lesser effect. Restricting access to lethal means has been identified as an effective approach to suicide prevention, and firearms regulations are one way to reduce gun availability. The analysis suggests that gun control measures such as permit and licensing requirements have a negative effect on suicide rates among males. Since there is considerable heterogeneity among states with regard to gun control, these results suggest that there are opportunities for many states to reduce suicide by expanding their firearms regulations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlates of health care utilization under targeted interventions: The case of female sex workers in Andhra Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Sharma, Varun; Suryawanshi, Dipak; Saggurti, Niranjan; Bharat, Shalini

2017-11-01

Accessibility and frequency of use of health care services among female sex workers (FSWs) are constrained by various factors. In this analysis, we examined the correlates of frequency of using health care services under targeted interventions among FSWs. A sample of FSWs (N = 1,973) was obtained from a second round (2012) of Behavioral Tracking Survey, conducted in five districts of Andhra Pradesh, a high-HIV-prevalence state in southern India. We used negative binomial regression models to analyze frequency of utilization of health care services among FSWs. Based on our analysis, we suggest that various predisposing and enabling factors were found to be significantly associated with the visit to NGO clinics for treatment of any health problem, any sexually transmitted infection symptom, and the number of condoms received from the peer worker or condom depot. We suggest the need for further research with respect to various correlates of frequency of using health care among FSWs to develop effective intervention strategies in countries that have high HIV prevalence among FSWs and targeted interventions need more diligent implementation to reach the unreached.

Sexual Violence in the Backlands: Toward a Macro-Level Understanding of Rural Sex Crimes.

PubMed

Braithwaite, Jeremy

2015-10-01

This research focuses on structural covariates of sex crimes in rural communities (using urban and urbanizing communities as comparison groups), with particular analysis on exploring how the magnitude and direction of such covariates differ with respect to type of sex crime. Using 2000 sex crime data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) for the population of reporting U.S. cities, negative binomial and logistic regression procedures were used to explore the relationship between resource disadvantage, local investment, and economic inequality and sex crime subtypes. For sex crimes that occurred almost exclusively in the home, urban and urbanizing community rates were largely influenced by resource disadvantage and local investment, while these measures did not reach significance for explaining rural rates. Conversely, local investment was a significant predictor of sex crimes that occurred outside the home in rural communities. This research indicates that a structural analysis of sexual victimization (widely absent from the scientific literature) does yield significant findings and that disaggregation of crime into subtypes allows for a more detailed differentiation between urban and rural communities. © The Author(s) 2014.

Univariate and bivariate likelihood-based meta-analysis methods performed comparably when marginal sensitivity and specificity were the targets of inference.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Lau, Joseph; Schmid, Christopher H

2017-03-01

To compare statistical methods for meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity of medical tests (e.g., diagnostic or screening tests). We constructed a database of PubMed-indexed meta-analyses of test performance from which 2 × 2 tables for each included study could be extracted. We reanalyzed the data using univariate and bivariate random effects models fit with inverse variance and maximum likelihood methods. Analyses were performed using both normal and binomial likelihoods to describe within-study variability. The bivariate model using the binomial likelihood was also fit using a fully Bayesian approach. We use two worked examples-thoracic computerized tomography to detect aortic injury and rapid prescreening of Papanicolaou smears to detect cytological abnormalities-to highlight that different meta-analysis approaches can produce different results. We also present results from reanalysis of 308 meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity. Models using the normal approximation produced sensitivity and specificity estimates closer to 50% and smaller standard errors compared to models using the binomial likelihood; absolute differences of 5% or greater were observed in 12% and 5% of meta-analyses for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Results from univariate and bivariate random effects models were similar, regardless of estimation method. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods produced almost identical summary estimates under the bivariate model; however, Bayesian analyses indicated greater uncertainty around those estimates. Bivariate models produced imprecise estimates of the between-study correlation of sensitivity and specificity. Differences between methods were larger with increasing proportion of studies that were small or required a continuity correction. The binomial likelihood should be used to model within-study variability. Univariate and bivariate models give similar estimates of the marginal distributions for sensitivity and specificity. Bayesian methods fully quantify uncertainty and their ability to incorporate external evidence may be useful for imprecisely estimated parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint multifractal analysis based on the partition function approach: analytical analysis, numerical simulation and empirical application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Gu, Gao-Feng; Xiong, Xiong; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-10-01

Many complex systems generate multifractal time series which are long-range cross-correlated. Numerous methods have been proposed to characterize the multifractal nature of these long-range cross correlations. However, several important issues about these methods are not well understood and most methods consider only one moment order. We study the joint multifractal analysis based on partition function with two moment orders, which was initially invented to investigate fluid fields, and derive analytically several important properties. We apply the method numerically to binomial measures with multifractal cross correlations and bivariate fractional Brownian motions without multifractal cross correlations. For binomial multifractal measures, the explicit expressions of mass function, singularity strength and multifractal spectrum of the cross correlations are derived, which agree excellently with the numerical results. We also apply the method to stock market indexes and unveil intriguing multifractality in the cross correlations of index volatilities.

M-Bonomial Coefficients and Their Identities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asiru, Muniru A.

2010-01-01

In this note, we introduce M-bonomial coefficients or (M-bonacci binomial coefficients). These are similar to the binomial and the Fibonomial (or Fibonacci-binomial) coefficients and can be displayed in a triangle similar to Pascal's triangle from which some identities become obvious.

The association between major depression prevalence and sex becomes weaker with age.

PubMed

Patten, Scott B; Williams, Jeanne V A; Lavorato, Dina H; Wang, Jian Li; Bulloch, Andrew G M; Sajobi, Tolulope

2016-02-01

Women have a higher prevalence of major depressive episodes (MDE) than men, and the annual prevalence of MDE declines with age. Age by sex interactions may occur (a weakening of the sex effect with age), but are easily overlooked since individual studies lack statistical power to detect interactions. The objective of this study was to evaluate age by sex interactions in MDE prevalence. In Canada, a series of 10 national surveys conducted between 1996 and 2013 assessed MDE prevalence in respondents over the age of 14. Treating age as a continuous variable, binomial and linear regression was used to model age by sex interactions in each survey. To increase power, the survey-specific interaction coefficients were then pooled using meta-analytic methods. The estimated interaction terms were homogeneous. In the binomial regression model I (2) was 31.2 % and was not statistically significant (Q statistic = 13.1, df = 9, p = 0.159). The pooled estimate (-0.004) was significant (z = 3.13, p = 0.002), indicating that the effect of sex became weaker with increasing age. This resulted in near disappearance of the sex difference in the 75+ age group. This finding was also supported by an examination of age- and sex-specific estimates pooled across the surveys. The association of MDE prevalence with sex becomes weaker with age. The interaction may reflect biological effect modification. Investigators should test for, and consider inclusion of age by sex interactions in epidemiological analyses of MDE prevalence.

Dispersion models and sampling of cacao mirid bug Sahlbergella singularis (Hemiptera: Miridae) on Theobroma Cacao in southern Cameroon.

PubMed

Bisseleua, D H B; Vidal, Stefan

2011-02-01

The spatio-temporal distribution of Sahlbergella singularis Haglung, a major pest of cacao trees (Theobroma cacao) (Malvaceae), was studied for 2 yr in traditional cacao forest gardens in the humid forest area of southern Cameroon. The first objective was to analyze the dispersion of this insect on cacao trees. The second objective was to develop sampling plans based on fixed levels of precision for estimating S. singularis populations. The following models were used to analyze the data: Taylor's power law, Iwao's patchiness regression, the Nachman model, and the negative binomial distribution. Our results document that Taylor's power law was a better fit for the data than the Iwao and Nachman models. Taylor's b and Iwao's β were both significantly >1, indicating that S. singularis aggregated on specific trees. This result was further supported by the calculated common k of 1.75444. Iwao's α was significantly <0, indicating that the basic distribution component of S. singularis was the individual insect. Comparison of negative binomial (NBD) and Nachman models indicated that the NBD model was appropriate for studying S. singularis distribution. Optimal sample sizes for fixed precision levels of 0.10, 0.15, and 0.25 were estimated with Taylor's regression coefficients. Required sample sizes increased dramatically with increasing levels of precision. This is the first study on S. singularis dispersion in cacao plantations. Sampling plans, presented here, should be a tool for research on population dynamics and pest management decisions of mirid bugs on cacao. © 2011 Entomological Society of America

Individual-level exposure to disaster, neighborhood environmental characteristics, and their independent and combined associations with depressive symptoms in women.

PubMed

Gaston, Symielle A; Volaufova, Julia; Peters, Edward S; Ferguson, Tekeda F; Robinson, William T; Nugent, Nicole; Trapido, Edward J; Rung, Ariane L

2017-09-01

The severity of the stress response to experiencing disaster depends on individual exposure and background stress prior to the event. To date, there is limited research on the interaction between neighborhood environmental stress and experiencing an oil spill, and their effects on depression. The objective of the current study was to assess if the association between exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DHOS) and depressive symptoms varied by neighborhood characteristics. US Census data (2010) and longitudinal data collected in two waves (2012-2014 and 2014-2016) from female residents [N = 889 (Wave I), 737 (Wave II)] of an area highly affected by the DHOS were analyzed. Multilevel and individual-level negative binomial regressions were performed to estimate associations with depressive symptoms in both waves. An interaction term was included to estimate effect modification of the association between DHOS exposure and depressive symptoms by neighborhood characteristics. Generalized estimating equations were applied to the negative binomial regression testing longitudinal associations. Census tract-level neighborhood characteristics were not associated with depressive symptoms. Exposure to the DHOS and neighborhood physical disorder were associated with depressive symptoms cross-sectionally. There was no evidence of effect modification; however, physical/environmental exposure to the DHOS was associated with increased depressive symptoms only among women living in areas with physical disorder. Exposure to the DHOS remained associated with depressive symptoms over time. Findings support the enduring consequences of disaster exposure on depressive symptoms in women and identify potential targets for post-disaster intervention based on residential characteristics.

Performance and structure of single-mode bosonic codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Victor V.; Noh, Kyungjoo; Duivenvoorden, Kasper; Young, Dylan J.; Brierley, R. T.; Reinhold, Philip; Vuillot, Christophe; Li, Linshu; Shen, Chao; Girvin, S. M.; Terhal, Barbara M.; Jiang, Liang

2018-03-01

The early Gottesman, Kitaev, and Preskill (GKP) proposal for encoding a qubit in an oscillator has recently been followed by cat- and binomial-code proposals. Numerically optimized codes have also been proposed, and we introduce codes of this type here. These codes have yet to be compared using the same error model; we provide such a comparison by determining the entanglement fidelity of all codes with respect to the bosonic pure-loss channel (i.e., photon loss) after the optimal recovery operation. We then compare achievable communication rates of the combined encoding-error-recovery channel by calculating the channel's hashing bound for each code. Cat and binomial codes perform similarly, with binomial codes outperforming cat codes at small loss rates. Despite not being designed to protect against the pure-loss channel, GKP codes significantly outperform all other codes for most values of the loss rate. We show that the performance of GKP and some binomial codes increases monotonically with increasing average photon number of the codes. In order to corroborate our numerical evidence of the cat-binomial-GKP order of performance occurring at small loss rates, we analytically evaluate the quantum error-correction conditions of those codes. For GKP codes, we find an essential singularity in the entanglement fidelity in the limit of vanishing loss rate. In addition to comparing the codes, we draw parallels between binomial codes and discrete-variable systems. First, we characterize one- and two-mode binomial as well as multiqubit permutation-invariant codes in terms of spin-coherent states. Such a characterization allows us to introduce check operators and error-correction procedures for binomial codes. Second, we introduce a generalization of spin-coherent states, extending our characterization to qudit binomial codes and yielding a multiqudit code.

The increase in symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood among Icelandic adolescents: time trend between 2006 and 2016.

PubMed

Thorisdottir, Ingibjorg E; Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis B; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Allegrante, John P; Sigfusdottir, Inga D

2017-10-01

Both research and popular media reports suggest that adolescent mental health has been deteriorating across societies with advanced economies. This study sought to describe the trends in self-reported symptoms of depressed mood and anxiety among Icelandic adolescents. Data for this study come from repeated, cross-sectional, population-based school surveys of 43 482 Icelandic adolescents in 9th and 10th grade, with six waves of pooled data from 2006 to 2016. We used analysis of variance, linear regression and binomial logistic regression to examine trends in symptom scores of anxiety and depressed mood over time. Gender differences in trends of high symptoms were also tested for interactions. Linear regression analysis showed a significant linear increase over the course of the study period in mean symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood for girls only; however, symptoms of anxiety among boys decreased. The proportion of adolescents reporting high depressive symptoms increased by 1.6% for boys and 6.8% for girls; the proportion of those reporting high anxiety symptoms increased by 1.3% for boys and 8.6% for girls. Over the study period, the odds for reporting high depressive symptoms and high anxiety symptoms were significantly higher for both genders. Girls were more likely to report high symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood than boys. Self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood have increased over time among Icelandic adolescents. Our findings suggest that future research needs to look beyond mean changes and examine the trends among those adolescents who report high symptoms of emotional distress. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Peak Weight and Height Velocity to Age 36 Months and Asthma Development: The Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Magnus, Maria C.; Stigum, Hein; Håberg, Siri E.; Nafstad, Per; London, Stephanie J.; Nystad, Wenche

2015-01-01

Background The immediate postnatal period is the period of the fastest growth in the entire life span and a critical period for lung development. Therefore, it is interesting to examine the association between growth during this period and childhood respiratory disorders. Methods We examined the association of peak weight and height velocity to age 36 months with maternal report of current asthma at 36 months (n = 50,311), recurrent lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) by 36 months (n = 47,905) and current asthma at 7 years (n = 24,827) in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Peak weight and height velocity was calculated using the Reed1 model through multilevel mixed-effects linear regression. Multivariable log-binomial regression was used to calculate adjusted relative risks (adj.RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We also conducted a sibling pair analysis using conditional logistic regression. Results Peak weight velocity was positively associated with current asthma at 36 months [adj.RR 1.22 (95%CI: 1.18, 1.26) per standard deviation (SD) increase], recurrent LRTIs by 36 months [adj.RR 1.14 (1.10, 1.19) per SD increase] and current asthma at 7 years [adj.RR 1.13 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.19) per SD increase]. Peak height velocity was not associated with any of the respiratory disorders. The positive association of peak weight velocity and asthma at 36 months remained in the sibling pair analysis. Conclusions Higher peak weight velocity, achieved during the immediate postnatal period, increased the risk of respiratory disorders. This might be explained by an influence on neonatal lung development, shared genetic/epigenetic mechanisms and/or environmental factors. PMID:25635872

Quantifying the safety effects of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads.

PubMed

Gooch, Jeffrey P; Gayah, Vikash V; Donnell, Eric T

2016-07-01

The objective of this study is to quantify the safety performance of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads relative to tangent segments. Past research is limited by small samples sizes, outdated statistical evaluation methods, and unreported standard errors. This study overcomes these drawbacks by using the propensity scores-potential outcomes framework. The impact of adjacent curves on horizontal curve safety is also explored using a cross-sectional regression model of only horizontal curves. The models estimated in the present study used eight years of crash data (2005-2012) obtained from over 10,000 miles of state-owned two-lane rural roads in Pennsylvania. These data included information on roadway geometry (e.g., horizontal curvature, lane width, and shoulder width), traffic volume, roadside hazard rating, and the presence of various low-cost safety countermeasures (e.g., centerline and shoulder rumble strips, curve and intersection warning pavement markings, and aggressive driving pavement dots). Crash prediction is performed by means of mixed effects negative binomial regression using the explanatory variables noted previously, as well as attributes of adjacent horizontal curves. The results indicate that both the presence of a horizontal curve and its degree of curvature must be considered when predicting the frequency of total crashes on horizontal curves. Both are associated with an increase in crash frequency, which is consistent with previous findings in the literature. Mixed effects negative binomial regression models for total crash frequency on horizontal curves indicate that the distance to adjacent curves is not statistically significant. However, the degree of curvature of adjacent curves in close proximity (within 0.75 miles) was found to be statistically significant and negatively correlated with crash frequency on the subject curve. This is logical, as drivers exiting a sharp curve are likely to be driving slower and with more awareness as they approach the next horizontal curve. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of negative binomial distribution to describe the presence of Anisakis in Thyrsites atun.

PubMed

Peña-Rehbein, Patricio; De los Ríos-Escalante, Patricio

2012-01-01

Nematodes of the genus Anisakis have marine fishes as intermediate hosts. One of these hosts is Thyrsites atun, an important fishery resource in Chile between 38 and 41° S. This paper describes the frequency and number of Anisakis nematodes in the internal organs of Thyrsites atun. An analysis based on spatial distribution models showed that the parasites tend to be clustered. The variation in the number of parasites per host could be described by the negative binomial distribution. The maximum observed number of parasites was nine parasites per host. The environmental and zoonotic aspects of the study are also discussed.

Adjusting for overdispersion in piecewise exponential regression models to estimate excess mortality rate in population-based research.

PubMed

Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Belot, Aurélien; Quaresma, Manuela; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P; Rachet, Bernard

2016-10-01

In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean). Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value <0.001). However, the flexible piecewise exponential model showed the smallest overdispersion parameter (3.2 versus 21.3) for non-flexible piecewise exponential models. We showed that there were no major differences between methods. However, using a flexible piecewise regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.

Payment systems and oral health in Swedish dental care: Observations over six years.

PubMed

Andås, C A; Hakeberg, M

2016-12-01

The aim of this longitudinal study of patients in regular dental care was to compare the findings of manifest caries and fillings after a 6-year adherence to either of two optional payment models, the traditional fee-for service (FFS) model, or the new capitation model 'Dental Care for Health' (DCH). Data on manifest caries lesions, the number of fillings and a number of background variables were collected from both a register and a questionnaire completed by 6,299 regular dental patients who met the inclusion criteria. The influence of payment system adherence and background variables on the number of manifest caries lesions at study end was examined by the means of negative binomial regression analysis. The incidence rate ratio of manifest caries lesions after six years in FFS was 1.5 compared to DCH, after controlling for age, gender, education and pre-baseline caries incidence. The number of fillings was higher in FFS than in DCH at study start and at study end, and was also described by a steeper slope. At group level, this study showed a statistically significant difference between the caries situation after six years in DCH compared with FFS, when some important background factors, including pre-baseline caries, were kept constant in a regression model. Copyright© 2016 Dennis Barber Ltd

Developing a case mix classification for child and adolescent mental health services: the influence of presenting problems, complexity factors and service providers on number of appointments.

PubMed

Martin, Peter; Davies, Roger; Macdougall, Amy; Ritchie, Benjamin; Vostanis, Panos; Whale, Andy; Wolpert, Miranda

2017-09-01

Case-mix classification is a focus of international attention in considering how best to manage and fund services, by providing a basis for fairer comparison of resource utilization. Yet there is little evidence of the best ways to establish case mix for child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS). To develop a case mix classification for CAMHS that is clinically meaningful and predictive of number of appointments attended and to investigate the influence of presenting problems, context and complexity factors and provider variation. We analysed 4573 completed episodes of outpatient care from 11 English CAMHS. Cluster analysis, regression trees and a conceptual classification based on clinical best practice guidelines were compared regarding their ability to predict number of appointments, using mixed effects negative binomial regression. The conceptual classification is clinically meaningful and did as well as data-driven classifications in accounting for number of appointments. There was little evidence for effects of complexity or context factors, with the possible exception of school attendance problems. Substantial variation in resource provision between providers was not explained well by case mix. The conceptually-derived classification merits further testing and development in the context of collaborative decision making.

High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

PubMed

Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

2017-02-01

Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

Estimating a Logistic Discrimination Functions When One of the Training Samples Is Subject to Misclassification: A Maximum Likelihood Approach.

PubMed

Nagelkerke, Nico; Fidler, Vaclav

2015-01-01

The problem of discrimination and classification is central to much of epidemiology. Here we consider the estimation of a logistic regression/discrimination function from training samples, when one of the training samples is subject to misclassification or mislabeling, e.g. diseased individuals are incorrectly classified/labeled as healthy controls. We show that this leads to zero-inflated binomial model with a defective logistic regression or discrimination function, whose parameters can be estimated using standard statistical methods such as maximum likelihood. These parameters can be used to estimate the probability of true group membership among those, possibly erroneously, classified as controls. Two examples are analyzed and discussed. A simulation study explores properties of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates and the estimates of the number of mislabeled observations.

Analysis of vaccination status of preschool children in Teresina (PI), Brazil.

PubMed

Fernandes, Ana Catharina Nunes; Gomes, Keila Rejane Oliveira; de Araújo, Telma Maria Evangelista; Moreira-Araújo, Regilda Saraiva dos Reis

2015-01-01

Immunization is a priority action of the Ministry of Health for contributing to reducing child mortality; however, studies show increased vaccination delays and non-vaccination. This study aims to analyze the immunization status of preschool children in Teresina - PI. Cross-sectional study involving 542 children, aged 2-6 years, enrolled in local public schools in four Municipal Childhood Education Centers selected at random, following the proportional division by regions of the city. Data were collected through a pre-coded and pre-tested form, in addition to scanning the children's vaccination card. For univariate descriptive statistical analysis, Pearson's χ2 Test and Fisher's Exact Test were used, and for multivariate analysis, multiple logistic regression was conducted using SPSS version 17.0. The study complied with the ethical aspects in accordance with current legislation. The frequency of delayed vaccination/non-vaccination was 24.9%. The average of non-administered vaccines was 1.7 (SD ± 1.2) and of delayed vaccines was 3.3 (SD ± 1.6). The binomial logistic regression model showed a significant association (p < 0.05) between young caregivers (under 24 years) and low frequency in childcare consultations with delayed vaccination/non-vaccination. There was no association with the variables related to the experience of children in the vaccination room and with the implementation of the Family Health Strategy. Ensuring and strengthening primary healthcare actions are essential tools to reduce non-vaccination and vaccine delays. Professionals who care for children in vaccination rooms need to sensitize themselves to guide and encourage parents/caregivers to meet the vaccination schedules without delays or errors.

Neighborhood educational disparities in active commuting among women: the effect of distance between the place of residence and the place of work/study (an ACTI-Cités study).

PubMed

Perchoux, Camille; Nazare, Julie-Anne; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Salze, Paul; Feuillet, Thierry; Hercberg, Serge; Hess, Franck; Menai, Mehdi; Weber, Christiane; Charreire, Hélène; Enaux, Christophe; Oppert, Jean-Michel; Simon, Chantal

2017-06-12

Active transportation has been associated with favorable health outcomes. Previous research highlighted the influence of neighborhood educational level on active transportation. However, little is known regarding the effect of commuting distance on social disparities in active commuting. In this regard, women have been poorly studied. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the relationship between neighborhood educational level and active commuting, and to assess whether the commuting distance modifies this relationship in adult women. This cross-sectional study is based on a subsample of women from the Nutrinet-Santé web-cohort (N = 1169). Binomial, log-binomial and negative binomial regressions were used to assess the associations between neighborhood education level and (i) the likelihood of reporting any active commuting time, and (ii) the share of commuting time made by active transportation modes. Potential effect measure modification of distance to work on the previous associations was assessed both on the additive and the multiplicative scales. Neighborhood education level was positively associated with the probability of reporting any active commuting time (relative risk = 1.774; p < 0.05) and the share of commuting time spent active (relative risk = 1.423; p < 0.05). The impact of neighborhood education was greater at long distances to work for both outcomes. Our results suggest that neighborhood educational disparities in active commuting tend to increase with commuting distance among women. Further research is needed to provide geographically driven guidance for health promotion intervention aiming at reducing disparities in active transportation among socioeconomic groups.

Problems on Divisibility of Binomial Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osler, Thomas J.; Smoak, James

2004-01-01

Twelve unusual problems involving divisibility of the binomial coefficients are represented in this article. The problems are listed in "The Problems" section. All twelve problems have short solutions which are listed in "The Solutions" section. These problems could be assigned to students in any course in which the binomial theorem and Pascal's…

Application of binomial-edited CPMG to shale characterization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Washburn, Kathryn E.; Birdwell, Justin E.

2014-01-01

Unconventional shale resources may contain a significant amount of hydrogen in organic solids such as kerogen, but it is not possible to directly detect these solids with many NMR systems. Binomial-edited pulse sequences capitalize on magnetization transfer between solids, semi-solids, and liquids to provide an indirect method of detecting solid organic materials in shales. When the organic solids can be directly measured, binomial-editing helps distinguish between different phases. We applied a binomial-edited CPMG pulse sequence to a range of natural and experimentally-altered shale samples. The most substantial signal loss is seen in shales rich in organic solids while fluids associated with inorganic pores seem essentially unaffected. This suggests that binomial-editing is a potential method for determining fluid locations, solid organic content, and kerogen–bitumen discrimination.

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany.

PubMed

Wang, Zhu; Ma, Shuangge; Wang, Ching-Yun

2015-09-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, but also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using the open-source R package mpath. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Mapping CHU9D Utility Scores from the PedsQLTM 4.0 SF-15.

PubMed

Mpundu-Kaambwa, Christine; Chen, Gang; Russo, Remo; Stevens, Katherine; Petersen, Karin Dam; Ratcliffe, Julie

2017-04-01

The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 Short Form 15 Generic Core Scales (hereafter the PedsQL) and the Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions (CHU9D) are two generic instruments designed to measure health-related quality of life in children and adolescents in the general population and paediatric patient groups living with specific health conditions. Although the PedsQL is widely used among paediatric patient populations, presently it is not possible to directly use the scores from the instrument to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for application in economic evaluation because it produces summary scores which are not preference-based. This paper examines different econometric mapping techniques for estimating CHU9D utility scores from the PedsQL for the purpose of calculating QALYs for cost-utility analysis. The PedsQL and the CHU9D were completed by a community sample of 755 Australian adolescents aged 15-17 years. Seven regression models were estimated: ordinary least squares estimator, generalised linear model, robust MM estimator, multivariate factorial polynomial estimator, beta-binomial estimator, finite mixture model and multinomial logistic model. The mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess predictive ability of the models. The MM estimator with stepwise-selected PedsQL dimension scores as explanatory variables had the best predictive accuracy using MAE and the equivalent beta-binomial model had the best predictive accuracy using MSE. Our mapping algorithm facilitates the estimation of health-state utilities for use within economic evaluations where only PedsQL data is available and is suitable for use in community-based adolescents aged 15-17 years. Applicability of the algorithm in younger populations should be assessed in further research.

Predicting length of stay from an electronic patient record system: a primary total knee replacement example.

PubMed

Carter, Evelene M; Potts, Henry W W

2014-04-04

To investigate whether factors can be identified that significantly affect hospital length of stay from those available in an electronic patient record system, using primary total knee replacements as an example. To investigate whether a model can be produced to predict the length of stay based on these factors to help resource planning and patient expectations on their length of stay. Data were extracted from the electronic patient record system for discharges from primary total knee operations from January 2007 to December 2011 (n=2,130) at one UK hospital and analysed for their effect on length of stay using Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests for discrete data and Spearman's correlation coefficient for continuous data. Models for predicting length of stay for primary total knee replacements were tested using the Poisson regression and the negative binomial modelling techniques. Factors found to have a significant effect on length of stay were age, gender, consultant, discharge destination, deprivation and ethnicity. Applying a negative binomial model to these variables was successful. The model predicted the length of stay of those patients who stayed 4-6 days (~50% of admissions) with 75% accuracy within 2 days (model data). Overall, the model predicted the total days stayed over 5 years to be only 88 days more than actual, a 6.9% uplift (test data). Valuable information can be found about length of stay from the analysis of variables easily extracted from an electronic patient record system. Models can be successfully created to help improve resource planning and from which a simple decision support system can be produced to help patient expectation on their length of stay.

The influence of neighborhood characteristics on the relationship between discrimination and increased drug-using social ties among illicit drug users.

PubMed

Crawford, Natalie D; Borrell, Luisa N; Galea, Sandro; Ford, Chandra; Latkin, Carl; Fuller, Crystal M

2013-04-01

Social discrimination may isolate drug users into higher risk relationships, particularly in disadvantaged neighborhood environments where drug trade occurs. We used negative binomial regression accounting for clustering of individuals within their recruitment neighborhood to investigate the relationship between high-risk drug ties with various forms of social discrimination, neighborhood minority composition, poverty and education. Results show that experiencing discrimination due to drug use is significantly associated with more drug ties in neighborhoods with fewer blacks. Future social network and discrimination research should assess the role of neighborhood social cohesion.

Hospital support services and the impacts of outsourcing on occupational health and safety.

PubMed

Siganporia, Pearl; Astrakianakis, George; Alamgir, Hasanat; Ostry, Aleck; Nicol, Anne-Marie; Koehoorn, Mieke

2016-10-01

Outsourcing labor is linked to negative impacts on occupational health and safety (OHS). In British Columbia, Canada, provincial health care service providers outsource support services such as cleaners and food service workers (CFSWs) to external contractors. This study investigates the impact of outsourcing on the occupational health safety of hospital CFSWs through a mixed methods approach. Worker's compensation data for hospital CFSWs were analyzed by negative binomial and multiple linear regressions supplemented by iterative thematic analysis of telephone interviews of the same job groups. Non-significant decreases in injury rates and days lost per injury were observed in outsourced CFSWs post outsourcing. Significant decreases (P < 0.05) were observed in average costs per injury for cleaners post outsourcing. Outsourced workers interviewed implied instances of underreporting workplace injuries. This mixed methods study describes the impact of outsourcing on OHS of healthcare workers in British Columbia. Results will be helpful for policy-makers and workplace regulators to assess program effectiveness for outsourced workers.

The relationship between social support and adolescent dating violence: a comparison across genders.

PubMed

Richards, Tara N; Branch, Kathryn A

2012-05-01

Although much research has focused on the function of social support in adult intimate partner violence, little is known about the role of social support in adolescent dating violence. This study is an exploratory analysis of the independent impact of social support from friends and family on the risk of adolescent dating violence perpetration and victimization among a large sample of youth (n = 970). Approximately, 21% of the sample reported experiencing victimization in a dating relationship whereas 23% indicated perpetrating dating violence. Male youth reported significantly more involvement in dating violence as both perpetrators and victims. Negative binomial regression modeling indicated that increased levels of support from friends was associated with significantly less dating violence perpetration and victimization; however, when gendered models were explored, the protective role of social support was only maintained for female youth. Family support was not significantly related to dating violence in any model. Implications for dating violence curriculum and future research are addressed.

Contact dermatitis is an unrecognized problem in the construction industry: Comparison of four different assessment methods.

PubMed

Timmerman, Johan G; Heederik, Dick; Spee, Ton; van Rooy, Frits G; Krop, Esmeralda J M; Rustemeyer, Thomas; Smit, Lidwien A M

2017-10-01

A high contact dermatitis symptoms prevalence has been observed in Dutch construction workers. Contact dermatitis was diagnosed by an expert panel using questionnaire data and photographs of 751 subjects' hands. A subset was evaluated by two occupational physicians. Their diagnoses were compared to those of the expert panel. In addition, two self-reported questionnaire-based assessment methods were compared to the expert panel evaluation. Associations between contact dermatitis and determinants were assessed using log-binomial regression analysis. Contact dermatitis prevalence was high: 61.4% (expert panel's diagnosis) and 32.9% (self-reported). Agreement between occupational physicians and the expert panel was low but increased after training. Washing hands with solvents and performing job-related tasks at home were related to contact dermatitis. Contact dermatitis prevalence among construction workers is high. Recognition of contact dermatitis by occupational physicians is poor but can be improved by training. Awareness of skin disorders should be raised. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Environmental Risk Factors influencing Bicycle Theft: A Spatial Analysis in London, UK

PubMed Central

Helbich, Marco

2016-01-01

Urban authorities are continuously drawing up policies to promote cycling among commuters. However, these initiatives are counterproductive for the targeted objectives because they increase opportunities for bicycle theft. This paper explores Inner London as a case study to address place-specific risk factors for bicycle theft at the street-segment level while controlling for seasonal variation. The presence of certain public amenities (e.g., bicycle stands, railway stations, pawnshops) was evaluated against locations of bicycle theft between 2013 and 2016 and risk effects were estimated using negative binomial regression models. Results showed that a greater level of risk stemmed from land-use facilities than from area-based socioeconomic status. The presence of facilities such as train stations, vacant houses, pawnbrokers and payday lenders increased bicycle theft, but no evidence was found that linked police stations with crime levels. The findings have significant implications for urban crime prevention with respect to non-residential land use. PMID:27643788

Mean Streets and Mental Health: Depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder at Crime Hot Spots.

PubMed

Weisburd, David; Cave, Breanne; Nelson, Matthew; White, Clair; Haviland, Amelia; Ready, Justin; Lawton, Brian; Sikkema, Kathleen

2018-03-07

This study explores the relationship between mental health and place at microgeographic units of analysis. We examine self-reported symptomology for depression and PTSD for 2,724 survey respondents interviewed in three types of randomly selected street segments: violent crime hot spots, cool spots, and cold spots. We find that the mean symptomology score is 61% higher for depression in violent crime hot spots than cold spots, and 85% higher for PTSD. Overall, we estimate that 14.8% of residents of violent crime hot spots meet thresholds for moderate depression or a diagnosis of PTSD. This can be compared to only 6.5% of residents at the cold spots. Using PSM and weighted negative binomial regression approaches we show that observable selection factors are not responsible for the relationships identified. Examining geographic influences, we find an important area effect of violent crime for both mental health measures, and an additional impact of the specific street of residence for PTSD. © Society for Community Research and Action 2018.

Syphilis Among U.S.-Bound Refugees, 2009-2013.

PubMed

Nyangoma, E N; Olson, C K; Painter, J A; Posey, D L; Stauffer, W M; Naughton, M; Zhou, W; Kamb, M; Benoit, S R

2017-08-01

U.S. immigration regulations require clinical and serologic screening for syphilis for all U.S.-bound refugees 15 years of age and older. We reviewed syphilis screening results for all U.S.-bound refugees from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2013. We calculated age-adjusted prevalence by region and nationality and assessed factors associated with syphilis seropositivity using multivariable log binomial regression models. Among 233,446 refugees, we identified 874 syphilis cases (373 cases per 100,000 refugees). The highest overall age-adjusted prevalence rates of syphilis seropositivity were observed among refugees from Africa (1340 cases per 100,000), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (397 cases per 100,000). In most regions, male sex, increasing age, and living in non-refugee camp settings were associated with syphilis seropositivity. Future analysis of test results, stage of infection, and treatment delivery overseas is warranted in order to determine the extent of transmission risk and benefits of the screening program.

Maternal employment and Mexican school-age children overweight in 2012: the importance of households features.

PubMed

Espinosa, Alejandro Martínez

2018-01-01

International evidence regarding the relationship between maternal employment and school-age children overweight and obesity shows divergent results. In Mexico, this relationship has not been confirmed by national data sets analysis. Consequently, the objective of this article was to evaluate the role of the mothers' participation in labor force related to excess body weight in Mexican school-age children (aged 5-11 years). A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 17,418 individuals from the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012, applying binomial logistic regression models. After controlling for individual, maternal and contextual features, the mothers' participation in labor force was associated with children body composition. However, when the household features (living arrangements, household ethnicity, size, food security and socioeconomic status) were incorporated, maternal employment was no longer statically significant. Household features are crucial factors for understanding the overweight and obesity prevalence levels in Mexican school-age children, despite the mother having a paid job. Copyright: © 2018 Permanyer.

Hospital support services and the impacts of outsourcing on occupational health and safety

PubMed Central

Alamgir, Hasanat; Ostry, Aleck; Nicol, Anne-Marie; Koehoorn, Mieke

2016-01-01

Background Outsourcing labor is linked to negative impacts on occupational health and safety (OHS). In British Columbia, Canada, provincial health care service providers outsource support services such as cleaners and food service workers (CFSWs) to external contractors. Objectives This study investigates the impact of outsourcing on the occupational health safety of hospital CFSWs through a mixed methods approach. Methods Worker’s compensation data for hospital CFSWs were analyzed by negative binomial and multiple linear regressions supplemented by iterative thematic analysis of telephone interviews of the same job groups. Results Non-significant decreases in injury rates and days lost per injury were observed in outsourced CFSWs post outsourcing. Significant decreases (P < 0.05) were observed in average costs per injury for cleaners post outsourcing. Outsourced workers interviewed implied instances of underreporting workplace injuries. Conclusions This mixed methods study describes the impact of outsourcing on OHS of healthcare workers in British Columbia. Results will be helpful for policy-makers and workplace regulators to assess program effectiveness for outsourced workers. PMID:27696988

Workplace discrimination and health among Filipinos in the United States.

PubMed

de Castro, Arnold B; Gee, Gilbert C; Takeuchi, David T

2008-03-01

We examined the association between work discrimination and morbidity among Filipinos in the United States, independent of more-global measures of discrimination. Data were collected from the Filipino American Community Epidemiological Survey. Our analysis focused on 1652 participants who were employed at the time of data collection, and we used negative binomial regression to determine the association between work discrimination and health conditions. The report of workplace discrimination specific to being Filipino was associated with an increased number of health conditions. This association persisted even after we controlled for everyday discrimination, a general assessment of discrimination; job concerns, a general assessment of unpleasant work circumstances; having immigrated for employment reasons; job category; income; education; gender; and other sociodemographic factors. Racial discrimination in the workplace was positively associated with poor health among Filipino Americans after we controlled for reports of everyday discrimination and general concerns about one's job. This finding shows the importance of considering the work setting as a source of discrimination and its effect on morbidity among racial minorities.

Interdependence in Health and Functioning Among Older Spousal Caregivers and Care Recipients.

PubMed

Hoffman, Geoffrey J; Burgard, Sarah; Mendez-Luck, Carolyn A; Gaugler, Joseph E

2018-06-01

Older spousal caregiving relationships involve support that may be affected by the health of either the caregiver or care recipient. We conducted a longitudinal analysis using pooled data from 4,632 community-dwelling spousal care recipients and caregivers aged ⩾50 from the 2002 to 2014 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. We specified logistic and negative binomial regression models using lagged predictor variables to assess the role of partner health status on spousal caregiver and care recipient health care utilization and physical functioning outcomes. Care recipients' odds of hospitalization, odds ratio (OR): 0.83, p<.001, decreased when caregivers had more ADL difficulties. When spouses were in poorer versus better health, care recipients' bed days decreased (4.69 vs. 2.54) while caregivers' bed days increased (0.20 vs. 0.96). Providers should consider the dual needs of caregivers caring for care recipients and their own health care needs, in adopting a family-centered approach to management of older adult long-term care needs.

Contingency Management Voucher Redemption as an Indicator of Delayed Gratification

PubMed Central

Fletcher, Jesse B.; Dierst-Davies, Rhodri; Reback, Cathy J.

2014-01-01

This prospective analysis tested whether frequency of voucher redemptions during a contingency management (CM) substance use intervention was significantly associated with participants’ ongoing substance use. Homeless, substance-dependent men who have sex with men (N=131) were randomized into either a “full” or “lite” voucher-based CM intervention. All participants earned vouchers for attendance and participation; participants in the CM-full condition also received vouchers for substance abstinence and enactment of prosocial and/or health-promoting behaviors. Multivariate longitudinal negative binomial regression analyses (n = 118) assessed the association between substance use during the intervention and frequency of voucher redemptions. Participants who used methamphetamine (IRR = 0.66; 95% CI=0.44–0.99) and/or opiates (IRR=0.60; 95% CI=0.40–0.99) during the intervention exhibited less time between voucher redemptions than individuals who achieved abstinence from these substances. Voucher redemption logs can be cost-effective and unobtrusive tools for measuring study participants’ tendency to delay gratification. PMID:24674235

Prevalence and associations of anisometropia with spherical ametropia, cylindrical power, age, and sex in refractive surgery candidates.

PubMed

Linke, Stephan J; Richard, Gisbert; Katz, Toam

2011-09-29

To analyze the prevalence and associations of anisometropia with spherical ametropia, astigmatism, age, and sex in a refractive surgery population. Medical records of 27,070 eyes of 13,535 refractive surgery candidates were reviewed. Anisometropia, defined as the absolute difference in mean spherical equivalent powers between right and left eyes, was analyzed for subjective (A(subj)) and cycloplegic refraction (A(cycl)). Correlations between anisometropia (>1 diopter) and spherical ametropia, cylindrical power, age, and sex, were analyzed using χ² and nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis or Mann-Whitney tests and binomial logistic regression analyses. Power vector analysis was applied for further analysis of cylindrical power. Prevalence of A(subj) was 18.5% and of A(cycl) was 19.3%. In hyperopes, logistic regression analysis revealed that only spherical refractive error (odds ratio [OR], 0.72) and age (OR, 0.97) were independently associated with anisometropia. A(subj) decreased with increasing spherical ametropia and advancing age. Cylindrical power and sex did not significantly affect A(subj). In myopes all explanatory variables (spherical power OR, 0.93; cylindrical power OR, 0.75; age OR, 1.02; sex OR, 0.8) were independently associated with anisometropia. Cylindrical power was most strongly associated with anisometropia. Advancing age and increasing spherical/cylindrical power correlated positively with increasing anisometropia in myopic subjects. Female sex was more closely associated with anisometropia. This large-scale retrospective analysis confirmed an independent association between anisometropia and both spherical ametropia and age in refractive surgery candidates. Notably, an inverse relationship between these parameters in hyperopes was observed. Cylindrical power and female sex were independently associated with anisometropia in myopes.

A Three-Parameter Generalisation of the Beta-Binomial Distribution with Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

York. Rust, R.T. and Klompmaker, J.E. (1981). Improving the estimation procedure for the beta binomial t.v. exposure model. Journal of Marketing ... Research . 18, 442-448. Sabavala, D.J. and Morrison, D.G. (1977). Television show loyalty: a beta- binomial model using recall data. Journal of Advertiuing

Distribution-free Inference of Zero-inated Binomial Data for Longitudinal Studies.

PubMed

He, H; Wang, W J; Hu, J; Gallop, R; Crits-Christoph, P; Xia, Y L

2015-10-01

Count reponses with structural zeros are very common in medical and psychosocial research, especially in alcohol and HIV research, and the zero-inflated poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models are widely used for modeling such outcomes. However, as alcohol drinking outcomes such as days of drinkings are counts within a given period, their distributions are bounded above by an upper limit (total days in the period) and thus inherently follow a binomial or zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) distribution, rather than a Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution, in the presence of structural zeros. In this paper, we develop a new semiparametric approach for modeling zero-inflated binomial (ZIB)-like count responses for cross-sectional as well as longitudinal data. We illustrate this approach with both simulated and real study data.

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S.

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band.

Is housing quality associated with malaria incidence among young children and mosquito vector numbers? Evidence from Korogwe, Tanzania.

PubMed

Liu, Jenny X; Bousema, Teun; Zelman, Brittany; Gesase, Samwel; Hashim, Ramadhan; Maxwell, Caroline; Chandramohan, Daniel; Gosling, Roly

2014-01-01

Several studies conducted in Northeast Tanzania have documented declines in malaria transmission even before interventions were scaled up. One explanation for these reductions may be the changes in socio-environmental conditions associated with economic development, and in particular improvements in housing construction. This analysis seeks to identify (1) risk factors for malaria incidence among young children and (2) household and environmental factors associated with mosquito vector numbers collected in the child's sleeping area. Both analyses focus on housing construction quality as a key determinant. For 435 children enrolled in a larger trial of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in the Korogwe District in Tanga, Northeastern Tanzania, detailed information on their dwelling characteristics were collected in the last year of the trial. Principal components analysis was used to construct an index of housing structure quality and converted to quintile units for regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate random effects negative binomial regressions were used to predict risk factors for child malaria incidence and the mean total number of indoor female Anopheles gambiae and funestus mosquitoes collected per household across three occasions. Building materials have substantially improved in Korogwe over time. Multivariate regressions showed that residing in rural areas (versus urban) increased malaria incidence rates by over three-fold and mean indoor female A. gambiae and funestus numbers by nearly two-fold. Compared to those residing in the lowest quality houses, children residing in the highest quality houses had one-third lower malaria incidence rates, even when wealth and rural residence were controlled for. Living in the highest quality houses reduced vector numbers while having cattle near the house significantly increased them. Results corroborate findings from other studies that show associations between malaria incidence and housing quality; associations were concentrated amongst the highest quality houses.

Care burden and its predictive factors in parents of newly diagnosed children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in academic hospitals in China.

PubMed

Wang, Jingting; Shen, Nanping; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Shen, Min; Xie, Anwei; Howell, Doris; Yuan, Changrong

2017-12-01

Caring for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a distressing experience for parents without medical training. The experience can lead to parents' care burden. This study explored care burden among parents of children with ALL and its related factors. A total of 130 parents were surveyed with the Zarit Burden Inventory (ZBI), Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS), Zung's Self-rating Anxiety Scale (SAS), Zung's Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS), Medical Outcome Study Short Form 36 (SF-36), and a study specific demographic information questionnaire. Independent-samples T test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis (stepwise method), and binomial logistic regression were used in data analysis. The mean score of parents' care burden overall was 37.74 ± 16.57, 17 (13.08%) had little or no burden, 57 (43.85%) had mild-to-moderate burden, 44 (33.84%) had moderate-to-severe burden, and 12 (9.23%) had severe burden. Regression analyses indicated daily care time, anxiety, general health, average monthly family income, social support, and number of co-caregivers were factors associated with care burden. These variables accounted for 51% of the variance in care burden. Other demographic information of parents and children, depression, and other dimensions of SF-36 were not related to care burden. The severe burden level was associated the increase risk of emotional distress compared with little or no burden group (OR = 37.500, 95% CI = 4.515-311.348, P = 0.001). The results indicated that care burden in parents of children newly diagnosed with ALL is high. Parents with lower levels of care burden tend to have less daily care time, more co-caregivers, higher income, less anxiety, better general health, and social support. Strategies are needed to help reduce parents' care burden.

Analysis of railroad tank car releases using a generalized binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Hong, Yili

2015-11-01

The United States is experiencing an unprecedented boom in shale oil production, leading to a dramatic growth in petroleum crude oil traffic by rail. In 2014, U.S. railroads carried over 500,000 tank carloads of petroleum crude oil, up from 9500 in 2008 (a 5300% increase). In light of continual growth in crude oil by rail, there is an urgent national need to manage this emerging risk. This need has been underscored in the wake of several recent crude oil release incidents. In contrast to highway transport, which usually involves a tank trailer, a crude oil train can carry a large number of tank cars, having the potential for a large, multiple-tank-car release incident. Previous studies exclusively assumed that railroad tank car releases in the same train accident are mutually independent, thereby estimating the number of tank cars releasing given the total number of tank cars derailed based on a binomial model. This paper specifically accounts for dependent tank car releases within a train accident. We estimate the number of tank cars releasing given the number of tank cars derailed based on a generalized binomial model. The generalized binomial model provides a significantly better description for the empirical tank car accident data through our numerical case study. This research aims to provide a new methodology and new insights regarding the further development of risk management strategies for improving railroad crude oil transportation safety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dispersion and sampling of adult Dermacentor andersoni in rangeland in Western North America.

PubMed

Rochon, K; Scoles, G A; Lysyk, T J

2012-03-01

A fixed precision sampling plan was developed for off-host populations of adult Rocky Mountain wood tick, Dermacentor andersoni (Stiles) based on data collected by dragging at 13 locations in Alberta, Canada; Washington; and Oregon. In total, 222 site-date combinations were sampled. Each site-date combination was considered a sample, and each sample ranged in size from 86 to 250 10 m2 quadrats. Analysis of simulated quadrats ranging in size from 10 to 50 m2 indicated that the most precise sample unit was the 10 m2 quadrat. Samples taken when abundance < 0.04 ticks per 10 m2 were more likely to not depart significantly from statistical randomness than samples taken when abundance was greater. Data were grouped into ten abundance classes and assessed for fit to the Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The Poisson distribution fit only data in abundance classes < 0.02 ticks per 10 m2, while the negative binomial distribution fit data from all abundance classes. A negative binomial distribution with common k = 0.3742 fit data in eight of the 10 abundance classes. Both the Taylor and Iwao mean-variance relationships were fit and used to predict sample sizes for a fixed level of precision. Sample sizes predicted using the Taylor model tended to underestimate actual sample sizes, while sample sizes estimated using the Iwao model tended to overestimate actual sample sizes. Using a negative binomial with common k provided estimates of required sample sizes closest to empirically calculated sample sizes.

Revealing Word Order: Using Serial Position in Binomials to Predict Properties of the Speaker

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iliev, Rumen; Smirnova, Anastasia

2016-01-01

Three studies test the link between word order in binomials and psychological and demographic characteristics of a speaker. While linguists have already suggested that psychological, cultural and societal factors are important in choosing word order in binomials, the vast majority of relevant research was focused on general factors and on broadly…

FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

PubMed

Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

2012-10-04

The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size. Regions with larger populations (regions 4 and 6) had higher values of EA than region 10 (which had the smallest population) for negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms. The difference was 12.5% and 13.5% on average in negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms, respectively. We present the first detailed comparative analysis of popular early epidemic detection algorithms on Google Flu Trends data. We note that realizing this opportunity requires moving beyond the cumulative sum and historical limits method-based normal distribution approaches, traditionally employed by the CDC, to negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms to deal with potentially noisy search query data from regions with varying population and Internet penetrations. Based on our work, we have developed FluBreaks, an early warning system for flu epidemics using Google Flu Trends.

Multifractal Cross Wavelet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Gao, Xing-Lu; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

Complex systems are composed of mutually interacting components and the output values of these components usually exhibit long-range cross-correlations. Using wavelet analysis, we propose a method of characterizing the joint multifractal nature of these long-range cross correlations, a method we call multifractal cross wavelet analysis (MFXWT). We assess the performance of the MFXWT method by performing extensive numerical experiments on the dual binomial measures with multifractal cross correlations and the bivariate fractional Brownian motions (bFBMs) with monofractal cross correlations. For binomial multifractal measures, we find the empirical joint multifractality of MFXWT to be in approximate agreement with the theoretical formula. For bFBMs, MFXWT may provide spurious multifractality because of the wide spanning range of the multifractal spectrum. We also apply the MFXWT method to stock market indices, and in pairs of index returns and volatilities we find an intriguing joint multifractal behavior. The tests on surrogate series also reveal that the cross correlation behavior, particularly the cross correlation with zero lag, is the main origin of cross multifractality.

Modeling abundance using multinomial N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy

2016-01-01

Multinomial N-mixture models are a generalization of the binomial N-mixture models described in Chapter 6 to allow for more complex and informative sampling protocols beyond simple counts. Many commonly used protocols such as multiple observer sampling, removal sampling, and capture-recapture produce a multivariate count frequency that has a multinomial distribution and for which multinomial N-mixture models can be developed. Such protocols typically result in more precise estimates than binomial mixture models because they provide direct information about parameters of the observation process. We demonstrate the analysis of these models in BUGS using several distinct formulations that afford great flexibility in the types of models that can be developed, and we demonstrate likelihood analysis using the unmarked package. Spatially stratified capture-recapture models are one class of models that fall into the multinomial N-mixture framework, and we discuss analysis of stratified versions of classical models such as model Mb, Mh and other classes of models that are only possible to describe within the multinomial N-mixture framework.

Type I error probability spending for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance with binomial data.

PubMed

Silva, Ivair R

2018-01-15

Type I error probability spending functions are commonly used for designing sequential analysis of binomial data in clinical trials, but it is also quickly emerging for near-continuous sequential analysis of post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. It is well known that, for clinical trials, when the null hypothesis is not rejected, it is still important to minimize the sample size. Unlike in post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance, that is not important. In post-market safety surveillance, specially when the surveillance involves identification of potential signals, the meaningful statistical performance measure to be minimized is the expected sample size when the null hypothesis is rejected. The present paper shows that, instead of the convex Type I error spending shape conventionally used in clinical trials, a concave shape is more indicated for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. This is shown for both, continuous and group sequential analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

2017-12-01

Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance.

PubMed

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Making sense of the noise: The effect of hydrology on silver carp eDNA detection in the Chicago area waterway system.

PubMed

Song, Jeffery W; Small, Mitchell J; Casman, Elizabeth A

2017-12-15

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is an emerging tool for monitoring the spread of aquatic invasive species. One confounding factor when interpreting eDNA sampling evidence is that eDNA can be present in the water in the absence of living target organisms, originating from excreta, dead tissue, boats, or sewage effluent, etc. In the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS), electric fish dispersal barriers were built to prevent non-native Asian carp species from invading Lake Michigan, and yet Asian carp eDNA has been detected above the barriers sporadically since 2009. In this paper the influence of stream flow characteristics in the CAWS on the probability of invasive Asian carp eDNA detection in the CAWS from 2009 to 2012 was examined. In the CAWS, the direction of stream flow is mostly away from Lake Michigan, though there are infrequent reversals in flow direction towards Lake Michigan during dry spells. We find that the flow reversal volume into the Lake has a statistically significant positive relationship with eDNA detection probability, while other covariates, like gage height, precipitation, season, water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH and chlorophyll concentration do not. This suggests that stream flow direction is highly influential on eDNA detection in the CAWS and should be considered when interpreting eDNA evidence. We also find that the beta-binomial regression model provides a stronger fit for eDNA detection probability compared to a binomial regression model. This paper provides a statistical modeling framework for interpreting eDNA sampling evidence and for evaluating covariates influencing eDNA detection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Association between cesarean birth and the risk of obesity in 6-17 year-olds].

PubMed

Wang, Z H; Xu, R B; Dong, Y H; Yang, Y D; Wang, S; Wang, X J; Yang, Z G; Zou, Z Y; Ma, J

2017-12-10

Objective: To explore the association between cesarean section and obesity in child and adolescent. Methods: In this study, a total number of 42 758 primary and middle school students aged between 6 and 17 were selected, using the stratified cluster sampling method in 93 primary and middle schools in Hunan, Ningxia, Tianjin, Chongqing, Liaoning, Shanghai and Guangdong provinces and autonomous regions. Log-Binomial regression model was used to analyze the association between cesarean section and obesity in childhood or adolescent. Results: Mean age of the subjects was (10.5±3.2) years. The overall rate of cesarean section among subjects attending primary or secondary schools was 42.3%, with 55.9% in boys and, 40.6% in girls respectively and with difference statistically significant ( P <0.001). The rate on obesity among those that received cesarean section (17.6%) was significantly higher than those who experienced vaginal delivery (10.2%) ( P <0.001). Results from the log-binomial regression model showed that cesarean section significantly increased the risk of obesity in child and adolescent ( OR =1.72, 95% CI : 1.63-1.82; P <0.001). After adjusting for factors as sex, residential areas (urban or rural), feeding patterns, frequencies of milk-feeding, eating high-energy foods, eating fried foods and the levels of parental education, family income, parental obesity, physical activity levels, gestational age and birth weight etc ., the differences were still statistically significant ( OR =1.48, 95% CI : 1.39-1.57; P <0.001). Conclusion: The rate of cesarean section among pregnant women in China appeared high which may significantly increase the risk of obesity in child or adolescent.

Gingival recession and associated factors in a homogeneous Mexican adult male population: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Minaya-Sánchez, Mirna; Medina-Solís, Carlo E.; Vallejos-Sánchez, Ana A.; Marquez-Corona, Maria L.; Pontigo-Loyola, América P.; Islas-Granillo, Horacio; Maupomé, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Background: Diverse variables are implicated in the pathogenesis of gingival recession; more detailed knowledge about the relationship between the clinical presentation of gingival recession and assorted risk indicators may lead to improved patient monitoring, early intervention, and subsequent prevention. The objective was to evaluate clinically gingival recession in a homogeneous Mexican adult male population and to determine the strength of association with related factors. Method: A cross-sectional study was carried out in a largely homogeneous group in terms of ethnic background, socioeconomic status, gender, occupation, and medical/dental insurance, in Campeche, Mexico. Periodontal examinations were undertaken to determine diverse clinical dental variables. All periodontal clinical examinations were assessed using the Florida Probe System, a dental chair and one examiner. Questionnaires were used to collect diverse risk indicators. Statistical analyses were undertaken with negative binomial regression models. Results: The mean number of sites with gingival recession per subject was 6.73±5.81; the prevalence was 87.6%. In the negative binomial regression model we observed that for (i) each year of age, and (ii) each percentage unit of increase in sites with plaque, and (iii) with suppuration, mean sites with gingival recession increased 2.9%, 1.0% and 13.0%, respectively. Having a spouse was associated with gingival recession. Conclusions: We observed association between gingival recession, and sociodemographic and clinical parameters. Patients need to be educated about risk indicators for gingival recession as well as the preventive maneuvers that may be implemented to minimize its occurrence. The potential of improved oral self-care to prevent a largely benign condition such as gingival recession is important, given the associated disorders that may ensue root exposure, such as root caries and root hypersensitivity. Key words:Oral health, periodontal health, gingival recession, adults, Mexico. PMID:22549678

Influence of prehospital airway management on neurological outcome in patients transferred to a heart attack centre following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Edwards, Timothy; Williams, Julia; Cottee, Michaela

2018-05-11

To describe the association between prehospital airway management and neurological outcomes in patients transferred by the ambulance service directly to a heart attack centre (HAC) post-return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). A retrospective observational cohort study in which ambulance records were reviewed to determine prehospital airway management strategy and collect physiological and demographic data. HAC notes were obtained to determine in-hospital management and quantify neurological outcome via the cerebral performance category (CPC) scale. Statistical analyses were performed via χ 2 -test, Mann-Whitney U-test, odds ratios and binomial logistic regression. Two hundred and twenty patients were included between August 2013 and August 2014, with complete outcome data obtained for 209. Median age of patients with complete outcome data was 67 years and 71.3% were male (n = 149). Airway management was provided using a supraglottic airway (SGA) in 72.7% of cases (n = 152) with the remainder undergoing endotracheal intubation (ETI). There was no significant difference in the proportion of patients who had a good neurological outcome (CPC 1 and 2) at discharge between the SGA and ETI groups (P = 0.29). Binomial logistic regression incorporating factors known to influence outcome demonstrated no significant difference in neurological outcomes between the SGA and ETI groups (adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.34-1.56). In this observational study, there was no significant difference in the proportion of good neurological outcomes in patients managed with SGA versus ETI during cardiac arrest and in the post-ROSC transfer phase. Further research is required to provide more definitive evidence in relation to the optimal airway management strategy in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. © 2018 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Temporary disaster debris management site identification using binomial cluster analysis and GIS.

PubMed

Grzeda, Stanislaw; Mazzuchi, Thomas A; Sarkani, Shahram

2014-04-01

An essential component of disaster planning and preparation is the identification and selection of temporary disaster debris management sites (DMS). However, since DMS identification is a complex process involving numerous variable constraints, many regional, county and municipal jurisdictions initiate this process during the post-disaster response and recovery phases, typically a period of severely stressed resources. Hence, a pre-disaster approach in identifying the most likely sites based on the number of locational constraints would significantly contribute to disaster debris management planning. As disasters vary in their nature, location and extent, an effective approach must facilitate scalability, flexibility and adaptability to variable local requirements, while also being generalisable to other regions and geographical extents. This study demonstrates the use of binomial cluster analysis in potential DMS identification in a case study conducted in Hamilton County, Indiana. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Extended Poisson process modelling and analysis of grouped binary data.

PubMed

Faddy, Malcolm J; Smith, David M

2012-05-01

A simple extension of the Poisson process results in binomially distributed counts of events in a time interval. A further extension generalises this to probability distributions under- or over-dispersed relative to the binomial distribution. Substantial levels of under-dispersion are possible with this modelling, but only modest levels of over-dispersion - up to Poisson-like variation. Although simple analytical expressions for the moments of these probability distributions are not available, approximate expressions for the mean and variance are derived, and used to re-parameterise the models. The modelling is applied in the analysis of two published data sets, one showing under-dispersion and the other over-dispersion. More appropriate assessment of the precision of estimated parameters and reliable model checking diagnostics follow from this more general modelling of these data sets. © 2012 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Modeling the frequency of opposing left-turn conflicts at signalized intersections using generalized linear regression models.

PubMed

Zhang, Xin; Liu, Pan; Chen, Yuguang; Bai, Lu; Wang, Wei

2014-01-01

The primary objective of this study was to identify whether the frequency of traffic conflicts at signalized intersections can be modeled. The opposing left-turn conflicts were selected for the development of conflict predictive models. Using data collected at 30 approaches at 20 signalized intersections, the underlying distributions of the conflicts under different traffic conditions were examined. Different conflict-predictive models were developed to relate the frequency of opposing left-turn conflicts to various explanatory variables. The models considered include a linear regression model, a negative binomial model, and separate models developed for four traffic scenarios. The prediction performance of different models was compared. The frequency of traffic conflicts follows a negative binominal distribution. The linear regression model is not appropriate for the conflict frequency data. In addition, drivers behaved differently under different traffic conditions. Accordingly, the effects of conflicting traffic volumes on conflict frequency vary across different traffic conditions. The occurrences of traffic conflicts at signalized intersections can be modeled using generalized linear regression models. The use of conflict predictive models has potential to expand the uses of surrogate safety measures in safety estimation and evaluation.

Work-related injuries involving a hand or fingers among union carpenters in Washington State, 1989 to 2008.

PubMed

Lipscomb, Hester J; Schoenfisch, Ashley; Cameron, Wilfrid

2013-07-01

We evaluated work-related injuries involving a hand or fingers and associated costs among a cohort of 24,830 carpenters between 1989 and 2008. Injury rates and rate ratios were calculated by using Poisson regression to explore higher risk on the basis of age, sex, time in the union, predominant work, and calendar time. Negative binomial regression was used to model dollars paid per claim after adjustment for inflation and discounting. Hand injuries accounted for 21.1% of reported injuries and 9.5% of paid lost time injuries. Older carpenters had proportionately more amputations, fractures, and multiple injuries, but their rates of these more severe injuries were not higher. Costs exceeded $21 million, a cost burden of $0.11 per hour worked. Older carpenters' higher proportion of serious injuries in the absence of higher rates likely reflects age-related reporting differences.

Mental Health Symptoms Among Student Service Members/Veterans and Civilian College Students.

PubMed

Cleveland, Sandi D; Branscum, Adam J; Bovbjerg, Viktor E; Thorburn, Sheryl

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate if and to what extent student service members/veterans differ from civilian college students in the prevalence of self-reported symptoms of poor mental health. The Fall 2011 implementation of the American College Health Association-National College Health Assessment included 27,774 respondents from 44 colleges and universities. Participants were matched using propensity scores, and the prevalence of symptoms was compared using logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The odds of feeling overwhelmed in the last 12 months were significantly lower among student service members/veterans with a history of hazardous duty (odd ratio [OR] = 0.46, adjusted p value <.05) compared with civilian students. Military service, with and without hazardous duty deployment, was not a significant predictor of the total number of symptoms of poor mental health. Current student service members/veterans may not be disproportionately affected by poor psychological functioning.

Work performance decrements are associated with Australian working conditions, particularly the demand to work longer hours.

PubMed

Holden, Libby; Scuffham, Paul A; Hilton, Michael F; Vecchio, Nerina N; Whiteford, Harvey A

2010-03-01

To demonstrate the importance of including a range of working conditions in models exploring the association between health- and work-related performance. The Australian Work Outcomes Research Cost-benefit study cross-sectional screening data set was used to explore health-related absenteeism and work performance losses on a sample of approximately 78,000 working Australians, including available demographic and working condition factors. Data collected using the World Health Organization Health and Productivity Questionnaire were analyzed with negative binomial logistic regression and multinomial logistic regressions for absenteeism and work performance, respectively. Hours expected to work, annual wage, and job insecurity play a vital role in the association between health- and work-related performance for both work attendance and self-reported work performance. Australian working conditions are contributing to both absenteeism and low work performance, regardless of health status.

Perceived health status and daily activity participation of older Malaysians.

PubMed

Ng, Sor Tho; Tengku-Aizan, Hamid; Tey, Nai Peng

2011-07-01

This article investigates the influence of perceived health status on the daily activity participation of older Malaysians. Data from the Survey on Perceptions of Needs and Problems of the Elderly, which was conducted in 1999, were used. The negative binomial regression results show that older persons with good perceived health status reported more varieties of daily activity participation, especially among the uneducated and those with below-average self-esteem. The multinomial logistic regression model suggests that older persons with good perceived health status tended to engage daily in paid work only or with leisure activities, whereas those perceived to have poor health were more likely to engage in leisure activities only or leisure and family role activities. Promotion of a healthy lifestyle at a younger age encourages every person to monitor and take responsibility for their own health, which is a necessary strategy to ensure active participation at an older age, and thus improve their well-being.

Choosing a Transformation in Analyses of Insect Counts from Contagious Distributions with Low Means

Treesearch

W.D. Pepper; S.J. Zarnoch; G.L. DeBarr; P. de Groot; C.D. Tangren

1997-01-01

Guidelines based on computer simulation are suggested for choosing a transformation of insect counts from negative binomial distributions with low mean counts and high levels of contagion. Typical values and ranges of negative binomial model parameters were determined by fitting the model to data from 19 entomological field studies. Random sampling of negative binomial...

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Comparison of multiplicity distributions to the negative binomial distribution in muon-proton scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneodo, M.; Arvidson, A.; Aubert, J. J.; Badełek, B.; Beaufays, J.; Bee, C. P.; Benchouk, C.; Berghoff, G.; Bird, I.; Blum, D.; Böhm, E.; de Bouard, X.; Brasse, F. W.; Braun, H.; Broll, C.; Brown, S.; Brück, H.; Calen, H.; Chima, J. S.; Ciborowski, J.; Clifft, R.; Coignet, G.; Combley, F.; Coughlan, J.; D'Agostini, G.; Dahlgren, S.; Dengler, F.; Derado, I.; Dreyer, T.; Drees, J.; Düren, M.; Eckardt, V.; Edwards, A.; Edwards, M.; Ernst, T.; Eszes, G.; Favier, J.; Ferrero, M. I.; Figiel, J.; Flauger, W.; Foster, J.; Ftáčnik, J.; Gabathuler, E.; Gajewski, J.; Gamet, R.; Gayler, J.; Geddes, N.; Grafström, P.; Grard, F.; Haas, J.; Hagberg, E.; Hasert, F. J.; Hayman, P.; Heusse, P.; Jaffré, M.; Jachołkowska, A.; Janata, F.; Jancsó, G.; Johnson, A. S.; Kabuss, E. M.; Kellner, G.; Korbel, V.; Krüger, J.; Kullander, S.; Landgraf, U.; Lanske, D.; Loken, J.; Long, K.; Maire, M.; Malecki, P.; Manz, A.; Maselli, S.; Mohr, W.; Montanet, F.; Montgomery, H. E.; Nagy, E.; Nassalski, J.; Norton, P. R.; Oakham, F. G.; Osborne, A. M.; Pascaud, C.; Pawlik, B.; Payre, P.; Peroni, C.; Peschel, H.; Pessard, H.; Pettinghale, J.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pietrzyk, U.; Pönsgen, B.; Pötsch, M.; Renton, P.; Ribarics, P.; Rith, K.; Rondio, E.; Sandacz, A.; Scheer, M.; Schlagböhmer, A.; Schiemann, H.; Schmitz, N.; Schneegans, M.; Schneider, A.; Scholz, M.; Schröder, T.; Schultze, K.; Sloan, T.; Stier, H. E.; Studt, M.; Taylor, G. N.; Thénard, J. M.; Thompson, J. C.; de La Torre, A.; Toth, J.; Urban, L.; Urban, L.; Wallucks, W.; Whalley, M.; Wheeler, S.; Williams, W. S. C.; Wimpenny, S. J.; Windmolders, R.; Wolf, G.

1987-09-01

The multiplicity distributions of charged hadrons produced in the deep inelastic muon-proton scattering at 280 GeV are analysed in various rapidity intervals, as a function of the total hadronic centre of mass energy W ranging from 4 20 GeV. Multiplicity distributions for the backward and forward hemispheres are also analysed separately. The data can be well parameterized by binomial distributions, extending their range of applicability to the case of lepton-proton scattering. The energy and the rapidity dependence of the parameters is presented and a smooth transition from the negative binomial distribution via Poissonian to the ordinary binomial is observed.

On the p, q-binomial distribution and the Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundow, P. H.; Rosengren, A.

2010-08-01

We employ p, q-binomial coefficients, a generalisation of the binomial coefficients, to describe the magnetisation distributions of the Ising model. For the complete graph this distribution corresponds exactly to the limit case p = q. We apply our investigation to the simple d-dimensional lattices for d = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and fit p, q-binomial distributions to our data, some of which are exact but most are sampled. For d = 1 and d = 5, the magnetisation distributions are remarkably well-fitted by p,q-binomial distributions. For d = 4 we are only slightly less successful, while for d = 2, 3 we see some deviations (with exceptions!) between the p, q-binomial and the Ising distribution. However, at certain temperatures near T c the statistical moments of the fitted distribution agree with the moments of the sampled data within the precision of sampling. We begin the paper by giving results of the behaviour of the p, q-distribution and its moment growth exponents given a certain parameterisation of p, q. Since the moment exponents are known for the Ising model (or at least approximately for d = 3) we can predict how p, q should behave and compare this to our measured p, q. The results speak in favour of the p, q-binomial distribution's correctness regarding its general behaviour in comparison to the Ising model. The full extent to which they correctly model the Ising distribution, however, is not settled.

Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta‐analysis and group level studies

PubMed Central

Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Morgenthaler, Stephan

2016-01-01

We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group‐level studies or in meta‐analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log‐odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p^, both for single‐group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta‐analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta‐analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias‐correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias‐correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta‐analyses of prevalence. PMID:27192062

Predictors of birth-related post-traumatic stress symptoms: secondary analysis of a cohort study.

PubMed

Furuta, Marie; Sandall, Jane; Cooper, Derek; Bick, Debra

2016-12-01

This study aimed to identify factors associated with birth-related post-traumatic stress symptoms during the early postnatal period. Secondary analysis was conducted using data from a prospective cohort study of 1824 women who gave birth in one large hospital in England. Post-traumatic stress symptoms were measured by the Impact of Event Scale at 6 to 8 weeks postpartum. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for analyses. Results showed that post-traumatic stress symptoms were more frequently observed in black women and in women who had a higher pre-pregnancy BMI compared to those with a lower BMI. Women who have a history of mental illness as well as those who gave birth before arriving at the hospital, underwent an emergency caesarean section or experienced severe maternal morbidity or neonatal complications also showed symptoms. Women's perceived control during labour and birth significantly reduced the effects of some risk factors. A higher level of perceived social support during the postnatal period also reduced the risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms. From the perspective of clinical practice, improving women's sense of control during labour and birth appears to be important, as does providing social support following the birth.

Influence of Nurse Aide Absenteeism on Nursing Home Quality.

PubMed

Castle, Nicholas G; Ferguson-Rome, Jamie C

2015-08-01

In this analysis, the association of nurse aide absenteeism with quality is examined. Absenteeism is the failure of nurse aides to report for work when they are scheduled to work. Data used in this investigation came from survey responses from 3,941 nursing homes; Nursing Home Compare; the Online System for Survey, Certification and Administrative Reporting data; and the Area Resource File. Staffing characteristics, quality indicators, facility, and market information from these data sources were all measured in 2008. The specific quality indicators examined are physical restraint use, catheter use, pain management, and pressure sores using negative binomial regression. An average rate of 9.2% for nurse aide absenteeism was reported in the prior week. We find that high levels of absenteeism are associated with poor performance on all four quality indicators examined. The investigation presented, to our knowledge, is one of the first examining the implications of absenteeism in nursing homes. Absenteeism can be a costly staffing issue, one of the potential costs identified in this analysis is an impact on quality of care. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Variable selection for distribution-free models for longitudinal zero-inflated count responses.

PubMed

Chen, Tian; Wu, Pan; Tang, Wan; Zhang, Hui; Feng, Changyong; Kowalski, Jeanne; Tu, Xin M

2016-07-20

Zero-inflated count outcomes arise quite often in research and practice. Parametric models such as the zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial are widely used to model such responses. Like most parametric models, they are quite sensitive to departures from assumed distributions. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide distribution-free, or semi-parametric, alternatives. These methods extend the generalized estimating equations to provide robust inference for population mixtures defined by zero-inflated count outcomes. In this paper, we propose methods to extend smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD)-based variable selection methods to these new models. Variable selection has been gaining popularity in modern clinical research studies, as determining differential treatment effects of interventions for different subgroups has become the norm, rather the exception, in the era of patent-centered outcome research. Such moderation analysis in general creates many explanatory variables in regression analysis, and the advantages of SCAD-based methods over their traditional counterparts render them a great choice for addressing this important and timely issues in clinical research. We illustrate the proposed approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Common acute childhood infections and appendicitis: a historical study of statistical association in 27 English public boarding schools, 1930-1934.

PubMed

Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D; Ord, J K

2010-08-01

Although the involvement of common childhood infections in the aetiology of acute appendicitis has long been conjectured, supporting evidence is largely restricted to a disparate set of clinical case reports. A systematic population-based analysis of the implied comorbid associations is lacking in the literature. Drawing on a classic epidemiological dataset, assembled by the School Epidemics Committee of the United Kingdom's Medical Research Council (MRC) in the 1930s, this paper presents a historical analysis of the association between termly outbreaks of each of six common childhood infections (chickenpox, measles, mumps, rubella, scarlet fever and whooping cough) and operated cases of acute appendicitis in 27 English public boarding schools. When controlled for the potential confounding effects of school, year and season, multivariate negative binomial regression revealed a positive association between the level of appendicitis activity and the recorded rate of mumps (beta=0.15, 95% CI 0.07-0.24, P<0.001). Non-significant associations were identified between appendicitis and the other sample infectious diseases. Subject to data caveats, our findings suggest that further studies are required to determine whether the comorbid association between mumps and appendicitis is causal.

The strength of graduated drivers license programs and fatalities among teen drivers and passengers.

PubMed

Morrisey, Michael A; Grabowski, David C; Dee, Thomas S; Campbell, Christine

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of differentially stringent graduated drivers license programs on teen driver fatalities, day-time and night-time teen driver fatalities, fatalities of teen drivers with passengers present, and fatalities among teen passengers. The study uses 1992-2002 data on motor vehicle fatalities among 15-17-year-old drivers from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System to identify the effects of "good", "fair", and "marginal" GDL programs based upon designations by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Analysis is conducted using conditional negative binomial regressions with fixed effects. "Good" programs reduce total fatalities among young drivers by 19.4% (c.i. -33.0%, -5.9%). "Fair" programs reduce night-time young driver fatalities by 12.6% (c.i. -23.9%, -1.2%), but have no effect on day-time fatalities. "Marginal" programs had no statistically meaningful effect on driver fatalities. All three types of programs reduced teen passenger fatalities, but the effects of limitations on the number of passengers appear to have had only minimal effects in reducing fatalities among young drivers themselves. Stronger GDL programs are more effective than weaker programs in reducing teenage motor vehicle fatalities.

Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

PubMed

Goh, Kelvin Chun Keong; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

2014-04-01

This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Analysis of Gender Differences in Academic Productivity among Medical Faculty across 24 Medical Schools in the United States

PubMed Central

Raj, Anita; Carr, Phyllis L.; Kaplan, Samantha E.; Terrin, Norma; Breeze, Janis L.; Freund, Karen M.

2017-01-01

Purpose This study examines gender differences in academic productivity, as indicated by publications and federal grant funding acquisition, among a longitudinal cohort of medical faculty from 24 medical schools across the United States, 1995 to 2012. Method Data for this research was taken from the National Faculty Study involving a survey with medical faculty recruited from medical schools in 1995, and followed up in 2012. Data included surveys and publication and grant funding databases. Outcomes were number of publications, h-index and principal investigator on a federal grant in the prior two years. Gender differences were assessed using negative binomial regression models for publication and h-index outcomes, and logistic regression for the grant funding outcome; analyses adjusted for race/ethnicity, rank, specialty area and years since first academic appointment. Results Data were available for 1,244 of the 1,275 (98%) subjects eligible for the follow up study. Men were significantly more likely than women to be married/partnered, have children, and hold the rank of professor (P < .0001). Adjusted regression models document that women have a lower rate of publication (relative number = .71; 95% CI = .63, .81; P < .0001) and h-index (relative number = .81; 95% CI = .73, .90; P < .0001) relative to men, though there was no gender difference in grant funding. Conclusions Women faculty acquire federal funding at similar rates as male faculty, yet lag behind in terms of publications and their impact. Medical academia must consider how to help address ongoing gender disparities in publication records. PMID:27276002

Relationship between sharps disposal containers and Clostridium difficile infections in acute care hospitals.

PubMed

Pogorzelska-Maziarz, Monika

2015-10-01

Sharps disposal containers are ubiquitous in health care facilities; however, there is paucity of data on their potential role in pathogen transmission. This study assessed the relationship between use of single-use versus reusable sharps containers and rates of Clostridium difficile infections in a national sample of hospitals. A 2013 survey of 1,990 hospitals collected data on the use of sharps containers. Responses were linked to the 2012 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review dataset. Bivariate and multivariable negative binomial regression were conducted to examine differences in C difficile rates between hospitals using single-use versus reusable containers. There were 604 hospitals who completed the survey; of these, 539 provided data on use of sharps containers in 2012 (27% response rate). Hospitals had, on average, 289 beds (SD ± 203) and were predominantly non-for-profit (67%) and nonteaching (63%). Most used reusable sharps containers (72%). In bivariate regression, hospitals using single-use containers had significantly lower rates of C difficile versus hospitals using reusable containers (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.846, P = .001). This relationship persisted in multivariable regression (IRR = 0.870, P = .003) after controlling for other hospital characteristics. This is the first study to show a link between use of single-use sharps containers and lower C difficile rates. Future research should investigate the potential for environmental contamination of reusable containers and the role they may play in pathogen transmission. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An analysis of first-time blood donors return behaviour using regression models.

PubMed

Kheiri, S; Alibeigi, Z

2015-08-01

Blood products have a vital role in saving many patients' lives. The aim of this study was to analyse blood donor return behaviour. Using a cross-sectional follow-up design of 5-year duration, 864 first-time donors who had donated blood were selected using a systematic sampling. The behaviours of donors via three response variables, return to donation, frequency of return to donation and the time interval between donations, were analysed based on logistic regression, negative binomial regression and Cox's shared frailty model for recurrent events respectively. Successful return to donation rated at 49·1% and the deferral rate was 13·3%. There was a significant reverse relationship between the frequency of return to donation and the time interval between donations. Sex, body weight and job had an effect on return to donation; weight and frequency of donation during the first year had a direct effect on the total frequency of donations. Age, weight and job had a significant effect on the time intervals between donations. Aging decreases the chances of return to donation and increases the time interval between donations. Body weight affects the three response variables, i.e. the higher the weight, the more the chances of return to donation and the shorter the time interval between donations. There is a positive correlation between the frequency of donations in the first year and the total number of return to donations. Also, the shorter the time interval between donations is, the higher the frequency of donations. © 2015 British Blood Transfusion Society.

Environmental, Spatial, and Sociodemographic Factors Associated with Nonfatal Injuries in Indonesia.

PubMed

Irianti, Sri; Prasetyoputra, Puguh

2017-01-01

Background . The determinants of injuries and their reoccurrence in Indonesia are not well understood, despite their importance in the prevention of injuries. Therefore, this study seeks to investigate the environmental, spatial, and sociodemographic factors associated with the reoccurrence of injuries among Indonesian people. Methods . Data from the 2013 round of the Indonesia Baseline Health Research (IBHR 2013) were analysed using a two-part hurdle regression model. A logit regression model was chosen for the zero-hurdle part , while a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was selected for the counts part . Odds ratio (OR) and incidence rate ratio (IRR) were the measures of association, respectively. Results . The results suggest that living in a household with distant drinking water source, residing in slum areas, residing in Eastern Indonesia, having low educational attainment, being men, and being poorer are positively related to the likelihood of experiencing injury. Moreover, being a farmer or fishermen, having low educational attainment, and being men are positively associated with the frequency of injuries. Conclusion . This study would be useful to prioritise injury prevention programs in Indonesia based on the environmental, spatial, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Should the poor have no medicines to cure? A study on the association between social class and social security among the rural migrant workers in urban China.

PubMed

Guan, Ming

2017-11-07

The rampant urbanization and medical marketization in China have resulted in increased vulnerabilities to health and socioeconomic disparities among the rural migrant workers in urban China. In the Chinese context, the socioeconomic characteristics of rural migrant workers have attracted considerable research attention in the recent past years. However, to date, no previous studies have explored the association between the socioeconomic factors and social security among the rural migrant workers in urban China. This study aims to explore the association between socioeconomic inequity and social security inequity and the subsequent associations with medical inequity and reimbursement rejection. Data from a regionally representative sample of 2009 Survey of Migrant Workers in Pearl River Delta in China were used for analyses. Multiple logistic regressions were used to analyze the impacts of socioeconomic factors on the eight dimensions of social security (sick pay, paid leave, maternity pay, medical insurance, pension insurance, occupational injury insurance, unemployment insurance, and maternity insurance) and the impacts of social security on medical reimbursement rejection. The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model (ZINB regression) was adopted to explore the relationship between socioeconomic factors and hospital visits among the rural migrant workers with social security. The study population consisted of 848 rural migrant workers with high income who were young and middle-aged, low-educated, and covered by social security. Reimbursement rejection and abusive supervision for the rural migrant workers were observed. Logistic regression analysis showed that there were significant associations between socioeconomic factors and social security. ZINB regression showed that there were significant associations between socioeconomic factors and hospital visits among the rural migrant workers. Also, several dimensions of social security had significant associations with reimbursement rejections. This study showed that social security inequity, medical inequity, and reimbursement inequity happened to the rural migrant workers simultaneously. Future policy should strengthen health justice and enterprises' medical responsibilities to the employed rural migrant workers.

Loneliness, Insomnia and Suicidal Behavior among School-Going Adolescents in Western Pacific Island Countries: Role of Violence and Injury.

PubMed

Sharma, Bimala; Lee, Tae Ho; Nam, Eun Woo

2017-07-15

This study aimed to examine whether being bullied, fighting, and injury, regarded in terms of frequency and nature, were significantly associated with psychological distress and suicidal behavior, independent of substance abuse and parental support in adolescents. Secondary analysis of data from the Global School-based Student Health Survey from Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu was conducted. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association of being bullied, fighting and injury with psychological health outcomes (loneliness, insomnia, suicidal ideation and suicide attempt) at a 5% level of significance. A total of 4122 students were included; 45.5% were male, and 52.0% were 14 years of age or younger. Of the total, 9.3% felt lonely and 9.5% had insomnia most of the time over the last 12 months; 27.6% had suicidal ideation, and 30.9% reported at least one suicide attempt in the last 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that being bullied, fighting and injury were significantly associated with psychological health outcomes; adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of loneliness, insomnia, suicidal ideation and suicide attempt increased with increased exposure to bullying, fighting, and injury compared to non-exposed group. Among the types of bullying victimization, the highest AORs of insomnia and suicide attempt were among students who were left out of activities, compared to the non-bullied. Among the causes of injury, adolescents injured due to a physical attack were the most likely to report the highest AORs of loneliness, insomnia and suicidal ideation compared to those not injured. Preventing violence and injury among adolescents might contribute to better mental health and reduction of suicidal behavior.

Association Between Socioeconomic Status and Participation in Colonoscopy Screening Program in First Degree Relatives of Colorectal Cancer Patients.

PubMed

Chouhdari, Arezoo; Yavari, Parvin; Pourhoseingholi, Mohammad Amin; Sohrabi, Mohammad-Reza

2016-04-01

Approximately 15% to 25% of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases have positive family history for disease. Colonoscopy screening test is the best way for prevention and early diagnosis. Studies have found that first degree relatives (FDRs) with low socioeconomic status are less likely to participate in colonoscopy screening program. The aim of this study is to determine the association between socioeconomic status and participation in colonoscopy screening program in FDRs. This descriptive cross-sectional, study has been conducted on 200 FDRs who were consulted for undergoing colonoscopy screening program between 2007 and 2013 in research institute for gastroenterology and liver disease of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. They were interviewed via phone by a valid questionnaire about socioeconomic status. For data analysis, chi-square, exact fisher and multiple logistic regression were executed by SPSS 19. The results indicated 58.5% participants underwent colonoscopy screening test at least once to the time of the interview. There was not an association between participation in colonoscopy screening program and socioeconomic status to the time of the interview in binomial analysis. But statistical significance between intention to participate and educational and income level were found. We found, in logistic regression analysis, that high educational level (Diploma and University degree in this survey) was a predictor to participate in colonoscopy screening program in FDRs. According to this survey low socioeconomic status is an important factor to hinder participation of FDRs in colonoscopy screening program. Therefore, planned interventions for elevation knowledge and attitude in FDRs with low educational level are necessary. Also, reducing colonoscopy test costs should be a major priority for policy makers.

Loneliness, Insomnia and Suicidal Behavior among School-Going Adolescents in Western Pacific Island Countries: Role of Violence and Injury

PubMed Central

Sharma, Bimala; Lee, Tae Ho; Nam, Eun Woo

2017-01-01

This study aimed to examine whether being bullied, fighting, and injury, regarded in terms of frequency and nature, were significantly associated with psychological distress and suicidal behavior, independent of substance abuse and parental support in adolescents. Secondary analysis of data from the Global School-based Student Health Survey from Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu was conducted. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association of being bullied, fighting and injury with psychological health outcomes (loneliness, insomnia, suicidal ideation and suicide attempt) at a 5% level of significance. A total of 4122 students were included; 45.5% were male, and 52.0% were 14 years of age or younger. Of the total, 9.3% felt lonely and 9.5% had insomnia most of the time over the last 12 months; 27.6% had suicidal ideation, and 30.9% reported at least one suicide attempt in the last 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that being bullied, fighting and injury were significantly associated with psychological health outcomes; adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of loneliness, insomnia, suicidal ideation and suicide attempt increased with increased exposure to bullying, fighting, and injury compared to non-exposed group. Among the types of bullying victimization, the highest AORs of insomnia and suicide attempt were among students who were left out of activities, compared to the non-bullied. Among the causes of injury, adolescents injured due to a physical attack were the most likely to report the highest AORs of loneliness, insomnia and suicidal ideation compared to those not injured. Preventing violence and injury among adolescents might contribute to better mental health and reduction of suicidal behavior. PMID:28714893

Immigrants from Mexico experience serious behavioral and psychiatric problems at far lower rates than US-born Americans.

PubMed

Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Vaughn, Michael G; Goings, Trenette Clark

2017-10-01

To examine the prevalence of self-reported criminal and violent behavior, substance use disorders, and mental disorders among Mexican immigrants vis-à-vis the US born. Study findings are based on national data collected between 2012 and 2013. Binomial logistic regression was employed to examine the relationship between immigrant status and behavioral/psychiatric outcomes. Mexican immigrants report substantially lower levels of criminal and violent behaviors, substance use disorders, and mental disorders compared to US-born individuals. While some immigrants from Mexico have serious behavioral and psychiatric problems, Mexican immigrants in general experience such problems at far lower rates than US-born individuals.

Exact tests using two correlated binomial variables in contemporary cancer clinical trials.

PubMed

Yu, Jihnhee; Kepner, James L; Iyer, Renuka

2009-12-01

New therapy strategies for the treatment of cancer are rapidly emerging because of recent technology advances in genetics and molecular biology. Although newer targeted therapies can improve survival without measurable changes in tumor size, clinical trial conduct has remained nearly unchanged. When potentially efficacious therapies are tested, current clinical trial design and analysis methods may not be suitable for detecting therapeutic effects. We propose an exact method with respect to testing cytostatic cancer treatment using correlated bivariate binomial random variables to simultaneously assess two primary outcomes. The method is easy to implement. It does not increase the sample size over that of the univariate exact test and in most cases reduces the sample size required. Sample size calculations are provided for selected designs.

Selecting the right statistical model for analysis of insect count data by using information theoretic measures.

PubMed

Sileshi, G

2006-10-01

Researchers and regulatory agencies often make statistical inferences from insect count data using modelling approaches that assume homogeneous variance. Such models do not allow for formal appraisal of variability which in its different forms is the subject of interest in ecology. Therefore, the objectives of this paper were to (i) compare models suitable for handling variance heterogeneity and (ii) select optimal models to ensure valid statistical inferences from insect count data. The log-normal, standard Poisson, Poisson corrected for overdispersion, zero-inflated Poisson, the negative binomial distribution and zero-inflated negative binomial models were compared using six count datasets on foliage-dwelling insects and five families of soil-dwelling insects. Akaike's and Schwarz Bayesian information criteria were used for comparing the various models. Over 50% of the counts were zeros even in locally abundant species such as Ootheca bennigseni Weise, Mesoplatys ochroptera Stål and Diaecoderus spp. The Poisson model after correction for overdispersion and the standard negative binomial distribution model provided better description of the probability distribution of seven out of the 11 insects than the log-normal, standard Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial models. It is concluded that excess zeros and variance heterogeneity are common data phenomena in insect counts. If not properly modelled, these properties can invalidate the normal distribution assumptions resulting in biased estimation of ecological effects and jeopardizing the integrity of the scientific inferences. Therefore, it is recommended that statistical models appropriate for handling these data properties be selected using objective criteria to ensure efficient statistical inference.

Golay Complementary Waveforms in Reed–Müller Sequences for Radar Detection of Nonzero Doppler Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Xuezhi; Huang, Xiaotao; Suvorova, Sofia; Moran, Bill

2018-01-01

Golay complementary waveforms can, in theory, yield radar returns of high range resolution with essentially zero sidelobes. In practice, when deployed conventionally, while high signal-to-noise ratios can be achieved for static target detection, significant range sidelobes are generated by target returns of nonzero Doppler causing unreliable detection. We consider signal processing techniques using Golay complementary waveforms to improve radar detection performance in scenarios involving multiple nonzero Doppler targets. A signal processing procedure based on an existing, so called, Binomial Design algorithm that alters the transmission order of Golay complementary waveforms and weights the returns is proposed in an attempt to achieve an enhanced illumination performance. The procedure applies one of three proposed waveform transmission ordering algorithms, followed by a pointwise nonlinear processor combining the outputs of the Binomial Design algorithm and one of the ordering algorithms. The computational complexity of the Binomial Design algorithm and the three ordering algorithms are compared, and a statistical analysis of the performance of the pointwise nonlinear processing is given. Estimation of the areas in the Delay–Doppler map occupied by significant range sidelobes for given targets are also discussed. Numerical simulations for the comparison of the performances of the Binomial Design algorithm and the three ordering algorithms are presented for both fixed and randomized target locations. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed signal processing procedure has a better detection performance in terms of lower sidelobes and higher Doppler resolution in the presence of multiple nonzero Doppler targets compared to existing methods. PMID:29324708

Characterizing environmental risk factors for West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, using clinical data in humans and serology in pet dogs.

PubMed

Rocheleau, J P; Michel, P; Lindsay, L R; Drebot, M; Dibernardo, A; Ogden, N H; Fortin, A; Arsenault, J

2017-10-01

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

C-5A Cargo Deck Low-Frequency Vibration Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-01

SAMPLE VIBRATION CALCULATIONS 13 1. Normal Distribution 13 2. Binomial Distribution 15 IV CONCLUSIONS 17 -! V REFERENCES 18 t: FEiCENDIJJ PAGS 2LANKNOT...Calculation for Binomial Distribution 108 (Vertical Acceleration, Right Rear Cargo Deck) xi I. INTRODUCTION The availability of large transport...the end of taxi. These peaks could then be used directly to compile the probability of occurrence of specific values of acceleration using the binomial

Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

PubMed

Kéry, Marc

2018-02-01

Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

FEMALE SEX AND DISCONTINUATION OF ISONIAZID DUE TO ADVERSE EFFECTS DURING THE TREATMENT OF LATENT TUBERCULOSIS

PubMed Central

Pettit, April C.; Bethel, James; Hirsch-Moverman, Yael; Colson, Paul W.; Sterling, Timothy R.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Objectives To determine the rate of and risk factors for discontinuation of isoniazid due to adverse effects during the treatment of latent tuberculosis infection in a large, multi-site study. Methods The Tuberculosis Epidemiologic Studies Consortium (TBESC) conducted a prospective study from March 2007–September 2008 among adults initiating isoniazid for treatment of LTBI at 12 sites in the US and Canada. The relative risk for isoniazid discontinuation due to adverse effects was determined using negative binomial regression. Adjusted models were constructed using forward stepwise regression. Results Of 1,306 persons initiating isoniazid, 617 (47.2%, 95% CI 44.5–50.0%) completed treatment and 196 (15.0%, 95% CI 13.1–17.1%) discontinued due to adverse effects. In multivariable analysis, female sex (RR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32–2.10, p<0.001) and current alcohol use (RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.13–1.77, p=0.003) were independently associated with isoniazid discontinuation due to adverse effects. Conclusions The rate of discontinuation of isoniazid due to adverse effects was substantially higher than reported earlier. Women were at increased risk of discontinuing isoniazid due to adverse effects; close monitoring of women for adverse effects may be warranted. Current alcohol use was also associated with isoniazid discontinuation; counseling patients to abstain from alcohol could decrease discontinuation due to adverse effects. PMID:23845828

Pulmonary function tests do not predict mortality in patients undergoing continuous-flow left ventricular assist device implantation.

PubMed

Bedzra, Edo K S; Dardas, Todd F; Cheng, Richard K; Pal, Jay D; Mahr, Claudius; Smith, Jason W; Shively, Kent; Masri, S Carolina; Levy, Wayne C; Mokadam, Nahush A

2017-12-01

To investigate the effect of pulmonary function testing on outcomes after continuous flow left ventricular assist device implantation. A total of 263 and 239 patients, respectively, had tests of forced expiratory volume in 1 second and diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide preoperatively for left ventricular assist device implantations between July 2005 and September 2015. Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox regressions were performed to evaluate mortality. Patients were analyzed in a single cohort and across 5 groups. Postoperative intensive care unit and hospital lengths of stay were evaluated with negative binomial regressions. There is no association of forced expiratory volume in 1 second and diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide with survival and no difference in mortality at 1 and 3 years between the groups (log rank P = .841 and .713, respectively). Greater values in either parameter were associated with decreased hospital lengths of stay. Only diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide was associated with increased intensive care unit length of stay in the group analysis (P = .001). Ventilator times, postoperative pneumonia, reintubation, and tracheostomy rates were similar across the groups. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second and diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide are not associated with operative or long-term mortality in patients undergoing continuous flow left ventricular assist device implantation. These findings suggest that these abnormal pulmonary function tests alone should not preclude mechanical circulatory support candidacy. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of a questionnaire on hand hygiene in the construction industry.

PubMed

Timmerman, Johan G; Zilaout, Hicham; Heederik, Dick; Spee, Ton; Smit, Lidwien A M

2014-10-01

Construction workers are at risk of developing occupational contact dermatitis. Gloves, when used properly, may protect against chemicals and coarse materials. We investigated the prevalence and determinants of contact dermatitis in a population of Dutch construction workers and aimed at validating questionnaire items on hand hygiene. A cross-sectional study was conducted at 13 construction sites, yielding data of 177 subjects (95% response rate). A questionnaire covering questions on hand hygiene and contact dermatitis symptoms was used. Agreement between workplace observations and a number of questionnaire items was assessed by calculating Cohen's kappa. Log-binomial regression analysis was used to assess the association between contact dermatitis and various hand hygiene-related determinants. The 1-year prevalence of self-reported contact dermatitis in our study sample was 46.9%. Multiple regression analysis showed a positive association with difficulties with hand cleaning (prevalence ratio [PR]: 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.52), hand contamination at the end of the working day (PR: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.14-4.65), and intensive hand cream use (PR: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.42-3.01). Observations of hand contamination, glove use, and glove types were found to agree well with the self-reported data from the questionnaire (Cohen's kappa's 0.75, 0.97, and 0.88). Self-reported contact dermatitis prevalence in construction workers was high and related to hand hygiene. A strong agreement was found between workplace observations and self-reported questionnaire data. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Personal network correlates of alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use among homeless youth.

PubMed

Wenzel, Suzanne L; Tucker, Joan S; Golinelli, Daniela; Green, Harold D; Zhou, Annie

2010-11-01

Youth who are homeless and on their own are among the most marginalized individuals in the United States and face multiple risks, including use of substances. This study investigates how the use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana among homeless youth may be influenced by characteristics of their social networks. Homeless youth aged 13-24 were randomly sampled from 41 service and street sites in Los Angeles County (N=419). Predictors of substance use were examined using linear regression analysis (for average number of drinks and average number of cigarettes per day) and negative binomial regression analysis (for frequency of past month marijuana use). Youth with more substance users in their networks reported greater alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana consumption regardless of whether these network members provided tangible or emotional support. Marijuana use was more frequent for youth who met more network members through homeless settings, but less frequent among those who met more network members through treatment or AA/NA. Greater alcohol use occurred among youth who met more network members through substance use-related activities. Youth having more adults in positions of responsibility in their networks consumed less alcohol, and those with more school attendees in their networks consumed less alcohol and cigarettes. Findings highlight the importance of social context in understanding substance use among homeless youth. Results also support the relevance of network-based interventions to change social context for substance-using youth, in terms of both enhancing pro-social influences and reducing exposure to substance use. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent summary receiver operating characteristics for meta-analysis of prognostic studies.

PubMed

Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2016-11-20

Prognostic studies are widely conducted to examine whether biomarkers are associated with patient's prognoses and play important roles in medical decisions. Because findings from one prognostic study may be very limited, meta-analyses may be useful to obtain sound evidence. However, prognostic studies are often analyzed by relying on a study-specific cut-off value, which can lead to difficulty in applying the standard meta-analysis techniques. In this paper, we propose two methods to estimate a time-dependent version of the summary receiver operating characteristics curve for meta-analyses of prognostic studies with a right-censored time-to-event outcome. We introduce a bivariate normal model for the pair of time-dependent sensitivity and specificity and propose a method to form inferences based on summary statistics reported in published papers. This method provides a valid inference asymptotically. In addition, we consider a bivariate binomial model. To draw inferences from this bivariate binomial model, we introduce a multiple imputation method. The multiple imputation is found to be approximately proper multiple imputation, and thus the standard Rubin's variance formula is justified from a Bayesian view point. Our simulation study and application to a real dataset revealed that both methods work well with a moderate or large number of studies and the bivariate binomial model coupled with the multiple imputation outperforms the bivariate normal model with a small number of studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Social Acceptance of Community Solar: A Portland Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Anne

Community solar is a renewable energy practice that's been adopted by multiple U.S. states and is being considered by many more, including the state of Oregon. A recent senate bill in Oregon, called the "Clean Electricity and Coal Transition Plan", includes a provision that directs the Oregon Public Utility Commission to establish a community solar program for investor-owned utilities by late 2017. Thus, energy consumers in Portland will be offered participation in community solar projects in the near future. Community solar is a mechanism that allows ratepayers to experience both the costs and benefits of solar energy while also helping to offset the proportion of fossil-fuel generated electricity in utility grids, thus aiding climate change mitigation. For community solar to achieve market success in the residential sector of Portland, ratepayers of investor-owned utilities must socially accept this energy practice. The aim of this study was to forecast the potential social acceptance of community solar among Portland residents by measuring willingness to participate in these projects. Additionally, consumer characteristics, attitudes, awareness, and knowledge were captured to assess the influence of these factors on intent to enroll in community solar. The theory of planned behavior, as well as the social acceptance, diffusion of innovation, and dual-interest theories were frameworks used to inform the analysis of community solar adoption. These research objectives were addressed through a mixed-mode survey of Portland residents, using a stratified random sample of Portland neighborhoods to acquire a gradient of demographics. 330 questionnaires were completed, yielding a 34.2% response rate. Descriptive statistics, binomial logistic regression models, and mean willingness to pay were the analyses conducted to measure the influence of project factors and demographic characteristics on likelihood of community solar participation. Roughly 60% of respondents exhibited interest in community solar enrollment. The logistic regression model revealed the percent change in utility bill (essentially the rate of return on the community solar investment) as a dramatically influential variable predicting willingness to participate. Community solar project scenarios also had a strong influence on willingness to participate: larger, cheaper, and distant projects were preferred over small and expensive local projects. Results indicate that community solar project features that accentuate affordability are most important to energy consumers. Additionally, demographic characteristics that were strongly correlated with willingness to enroll were politically liberal ideologies, higher incomes, current enrollment in green utility programs, and membership in an environmental organization. Thus, the market acceptance of community solar in Portland will potentially be broadened by emphasizing affordability over other features, such as community and locality. Additionally, I explored attitudinal influences on interest in community solar by conducting exploratory factor analysis on attitudes towards energy, climate change, and solar barriers and subsequently conducting binomial logistic regression models. Results found that perceiving renewable energy as environmentally beneficial was positively correlated with intent to enroll in community solar, which supported the notion that environmental attitudes will lead to environmental behaviors. The logistic regression model also revealed a negative correlation between community solar interest and negative attitudes towards renewable energy. Perceptions of solar barriers were mild, indicating that lack of an enabling mechanism may be the reason solar continues to be underutilized in this region.

New Class of Quantum Error-Correcting Codes for a Bosonic Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, Marios H.; Silveri, Matti; Brierley, R. T.; Albert, Victor V.; Salmilehto, Juha; Jiang, Liang; Girvin, S. M.

2016-07-01

We construct a new class of quantum error-correcting codes for a bosonic mode, which are advantageous for applications in quantum memories, communication, and scalable computation. These "binomial quantum codes" are formed from a finite superposition of Fock states weighted with binomial coefficients. The binomial codes can exactly correct errors that are polynomial up to a specific degree in bosonic creation and annihilation operators, including amplitude damping and displacement noise as well as boson addition and dephasing errors. For realistic continuous-time dissipative evolution, the codes can perform approximate quantum error correction to any given order in the time step between error detection measurements. We present an explicit approximate quantum error recovery operation based on projective measurements and unitary operations. The binomial codes are tailored for detecting boson loss and gain errors by means of measurements of the generalized number parity. We discuss optimization of the binomial codes and demonstrate that by relaxing the parity structure, codes with even lower unrecoverable error rates can be achieved. The binomial codes are related to existing two-mode bosonic codes, but offer the advantage of requiring only a single bosonic mode to correct amplitude damping as well as the ability to correct other errors. Our codes are similar in spirit to "cat codes" based on superpositions of the coherent states but offer several advantages such as smaller mean boson number, exact rather than approximate orthonormality of the code words, and an explicit unitary operation for repumping energy into the bosonic mode. The binomial quantum codes are realizable with current superconducting circuit technology, and they should prove useful in other quantum technologies, including bosonic quantum memories, photonic quantum communication, and optical-to-microwave up- and down-conversion.

Tackling missing radiographic progression data: multiple imputation technique compared with inverse probability weights and complete case analysis.

PubMed

Descalzo, Miguel Á; Garcia, Virginia Villaverde; González-Alvaro, Isidoro; Carbonell, Jordi; Balsa, Alejandro; Sanmartí, Raimon; Lisbona, Pilar; Hernandez-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-Garcia, Rodrigo; Carmona, Loreto

2013-02-01

To describe the results of different statistical ways of addressing radiographic outcome affected by missing data--multiple imputation technique, inverse probability weights and complete case analysis--using data from an observational study. A random sample of 96 RA patients was selected for a follow-up study in which radiographs of hands and feet were scored. Radiographic progression was tested by comparing the change in the total Sharp-van der Heijde radiographic score (TSS) and the joint erosion score (JES) from baseline to the end of the second year of follow-up. MI technique, inverse probability weights in weighted estimating equation (WEE) and CC analysis were used to fit a negative binomial regression. Major predictors of radiographic progression were JES and joint space narrowing (JSN) at baseline, together with baseline disease activity measured by DAS28 for TSS and MTX use for JES. Results from CC analysis show larger coefficients and s.e.s compared with MI and weighted techniques. The results from the WEE model were quite in line with those of MI. If it seems plausible that CC or MI analysis may be valid, then MI should be preferred because of its greater efficiency. CC analysis resulted in inefficient estimates or, translated into non-statistical terminology, could guide us into inaccurate results and unwise conclusions. The methods discussed here will contribute to the use of alternative approaches for tackling missing data in observational studies.

The relationship between gun ownership and firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981-2010.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Ross, Craig S; King, Charles

2013-11-01

We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy-the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm-and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level. We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides.

The impact of parental and peer social support on dating violence perpetration and victimization among female adolescents: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Richards, Tara N; Branch, Kathryn A; Ray, Katherine

2014-01-01

Little is known about the role social support may play in reducing the risk of adolescent dating violence perpetration and victimization. This study is a longitudinal analysis of the independent impact of social support from friends and parents on the risk of emotional and physical dating violence perpetration and victimization among a large sample of female youth (n = 346). Findings indicate that 22% of the sample indicated perpetrating physical dating violence against a partner, whereas almost 16% revealed being the victim of physical dating violence; 34% of the sample indicated perpetrating emotional dating violence against a partner, whereas almost 39% revealed being the victim of emotional dating violence. Negative binomial regression models indicated that increased levels of support from friends at Time 1 was associated with significantly less physical and emotional dating violence perpetration and emotional (but not physical) dating violence victimization at Time 2. Parental support was not significantly related to dating violence in any model. Implications for dating violence curriculum and future research are addressed.

Associations between psychometrically assessed life history strategy and daily behavior: data from the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Life history theory has generated cogent, well-supported hypotheses about individual differences in human biodemographic traits (e.g., age at sexual maturity) and psychometric traits (e.g., conscientiousness), but little is known about how variation in life history strategy (LHS) is manifest in quotidian human behavior. Here I test predicted associations between the self-report Arizona Life History Battery and frequencies of 12 behaviors observed over 72 h in 91 US college students using the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR), a method of gathering periodic brief audio recordings as participants go about their daily lives. Bayesian multi-level aggregated binomial regression analysis found no strong associations between ALHB scores and behavior frequencies. One behavior, presence at amusement venues (bars, concerts, sports events) was weakly positively associated with ALHB-assessed slow LHS, contrary to prediction. These results may represent a challenge to the ALHB’s validity. However, it remains possible that situational influences on behavior, which were not measured in the present study, moderate the relationships between psychometrically-assessed LHS and quotidian behavior. PMID:29868275

Associations between psychometrically assessed life history strategy and daily behavior: data from the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR).

PubMed

Manson, Joseph H

2018-01-01

Life history theory has generated cogent, well-supported hypotheses about individual differences in human biodemographic traits (e.g., age at sexual maturity) and psychometric traits (e.g., conscientiousness), but little is known about how variation in life history strategy (LHS) is manifest in quotidian human behavior. Here I test predicted associations between the self-report Arizona Life History Battery and frequencies of 12 behaviors observed over 72 h in 91 US college students using the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR), a method of gathering periodic brief audio recordings as participants go about their daily lives. Bayesian multi-level aggregated binomial regression analysis found no strong associations between ALHB scores and behavior frequencies. One behavior, presence at amusement venues (bars, concerts, sports events) was weakly positively associated with ALHB-assessed slow LHS, contrary to prediction. These results may represent a challenge to the ALHB's validity. However, it remains possible that situational influences on behavior, which were not measured in the present study, moderate the relationships between psychometrically-assessed LHS and quotidian behavior.

Joint model for a diagnostic test without a gold standard in the presence of a dependent terminal event.

PubMed

Luo, Sheng; Su, Xiao; DeSantis, Stacia M; Huang, Xuelin; Yi, Min; Hunt, Kelly K

2014-07-10

Breast cancer patients after breast conservation therapy often develop ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR), whose classification (true local recurrence versus new ipsilateral primary tumor) is subject to error, and there is no available gold standard. Some patients may die because of breast cancer before IBTR develops. Because this terminal event may be related to the individual patient's unobserved disease status and time to IBTR, the terminal mechanism is non-ignorable. This article presents a joint analysis framework to model the binomial regression with misclassified binary outcome and the correlated time to IBTR, subject to a dependent terminal event and in the absence of a gold standard. Shared random effects are used to link together two survival times. The proposed approach is evaluated by a simulation study and is applied to a breast cancer data set consisting of 4477 breast cancer patients. The proposed joint model can be conveniently fit using adaptive Gaussian quadrature tools implemented in SAS 9.3 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) procedure NLMIXED. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Utilization of emergency and hospital services among individuals in substance abuse treatment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To examine risk factors for use of hospital services among racial and ethnic minority clients in publicly funded substance abuse treatment in Los Angeles County, California. We explored cross-sectional annual data (2006 to 2009) from the Los Angeles County Participant Reporting System for adult participants (n = 73,251) who received services from treatment programs (n = 231). Methods This retrospective analysis of county admission data relied on hierarchical linear negative binomial regression models to explore number of hospital visits, accounting for clients nested in programs. Client data were collected during personal interviews at admission. Findings Our findings support previous work that noted increased use of emergency rooms among individuals suffering from mental health- and substance use-related issues and extend the knowledge base by highlighting other important features such as treatment need, i.e., residential compared to outpatient treatment. Conclusions These findings have implications for health care policy in terms of the need to increase prevention services and reduce costly hospitalization for a population at significant risk of co-occurring mental and physical disorders. PMID:24708866

Adult criminal involvement: A cross-sectional inquiry into correlates and mechanisms over the life course

PubMed Central

DePadilla, Lara; Perkins, Molly M.; Elifson, Kirk W.; Sterk, Claire E.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we examine the relative contribution of four domains of predictors that have been linked to adult criminal involvement: (1) socio-demographic characteristics, (2) family-of-origin factors, (3) proximal processes developed during adolescence, and (4) current lifestyle and situational factors. Cross-sectional data were collected through face-to-face interviews with 242 community-recruited adults. Data analysis involved negative binomial regression. Being male, family size, juvenile delinquency, aggression, living with someone involved in illegal activity and recent violent victimization were independently associated with non-violent criminal involvement. Aggression, association with deviant peers, and recent violent victimization were independently associated with violent criminal involvement. Juvenile delinquency and aggression mediated the affect of multiple family-of-origin characteristics on non-violent criminal involvement and aggression mediated the effect of childhood physical abuse on violent criminal involvement. The results emphasize the importance of investigating both antecedents and proximal risk factors predictive of different types of criminal involvement, which, in turn, will assist in developing risk-focused prevention and intervention programs. PMID:24307752

G.R.I.T.S.: the southern subculture of violence and homicide offenses by girls raised in the South.

PubMed

Doucet, Jessica M; D'Antonio-Del Rio, Julia M; Chauvin, Chantel D

2014-03-01

The southern subculture of violence is a theoretical perspective that has been examined by numerous scholars in an attempt to explain the high rates of violence in the Southern United States. Research over the past several decades has converged on a few explanations for this violence, including a culture of honor, a frontier mentality, and a presence of evangelical Protestantism. The primary focus of this research has been on either male offending or race disaggregated offending. The influence of the southern subculture of violence on female offending has only recently come to the forefront and has concentrated on relatively recent time periods (1990s to present). The present study examines the effect of southern culture on female-perpetrated homicides in the 1970s, a time when female offending was on the rise. Utilizing a southern subculture of violence index, our county-level negative binomial regression analysis finds that in counties with more Southern-born residents and a higher presence of evangelical Protestantism, female homicide offending is higher. Implications of these results and avenues for future research are discussed.

Workplace Discrimination and Health Among Filipinos in the United States

PubMed Central

de Castro, Arnold B.; Gee, Gilbert C.; Takeuchi, David T.

2008-01-01

Objectives. We examined the association between work discrimination and morbidity among Filipinos in the United States, independent of more-global measures of discrimination. Methods. Data were collected from the Filipino American Community Epidemiological Survey. Our analysis focused on 1652 participants who were employed at the time of data collection, and we used negative binomial regression to determine the association between work discrimination and health conditions. Results. The report of workplace discrimination specific to being Filipino was associated with an increased number of health conditions. This association persisted even after we controlled for everyday discrimination, a general assessment of discrimination; job concerns, a general assessment of unpleasant work circumstances; having immigrated for employment reasons; job category; income; education; gender; and other sociodemographic factors. Conclusions. Racial discrimination in the workplace was positively associated with poor health among Filipino Americans after we controlled for reports of everyday discrimination and general concerns about one’s job. This finding shows the importance of considering the work setting as a source of discrimination and its effect on morbidity among racial minorities. PMID:18235069

Speech-discrimination scores modeled as a binomial variable.

PubMed

Thornton, A R; Raffin, M J

1978-09-01

Many studies have reported variability data for tests of speech discrimination, and the disparate results of these studies have not been given a simple explanation. Arguments over the relative merits of 25- vs 50-word tests have ignored the basic mathematical properties inherent in the use of percentage scores. The present study models performance on clinical tests of speech discrimination as a binomial variable. A binomial model was developed, and some of its characteristics were tested against data from 4120 scores obtained on the CID Auditory Test W-22. A table for determining significant deviations between scores was generated and compared to observed differences in half-list scores for the W-22 tests. Good agreement was found between predicted and observed values. Implications of the binomial characteristics of speech-discrimination scores are discussed.

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authorsmore » of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]« less

Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta-analysis and group level studies.

PubMed

Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Kulinskaya, Elena; Morgenthaler, Stephan

2016-07-01

We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group-level studies or in meta-analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log-odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p̂, both for single-group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta-analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta-analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias-correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias-correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta-analyses of prevalence. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

A big data approach to the development of mixed-effects models for seizure count data.

PubMed

Tharayil, Joseph J; Chiang, Sharon; Moss, Robert; Stern, John M; Theodore, William H; Goldenholz, Daniel M

2017-05-01

Our objective was to develop a generalized linear mixed model for predicting seizure count that is useful in the design and analysis of clinical trials. This model also may benefit the design and interpretation of seizure-recording paradigms. Most existing seizure count models do not include children, and there is currently no consensus regarding the most suitable model that can be applied to children and adults. Therefore, an additional objective was to develop a model that accounts for both adult and pediatric epilepsy. Using data from SeizureTracker.com, a patient-reported seizure diary tool with >1.2 million recorded seizures across 8 years, we evaluated the appropriateness of Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, and modified negative binomial models for seizure count data based on minimization of the Bayesian information criterion. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to account for demographic and etiologic covariates and for autocorrelation structure. Holdout cross-validation was used to evaluate predictive accuracy in simulating seizure frequencies. For both adults and children, we found that a negative binomial model with autocorrelation over 1 day was optimal. Using holdout cross-validation, the proposed model was found to provide accurate simulation of seizure counts for patients with up to four seizures per day. The optimal model can be used to generate more realistic simulated patient data with very few input parameters. The availability of a parsimonious, realistic virtual patient model can be of great utility in simulations of phase II/III clinical trials, epilepsy monitoring units, outpatient biosensors, and mobile Health (mHealth) applications. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in Ontario: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moineddin, Rahim; Meaney, Christopher; Agha, Mohammad; Zagorski, Brandon; Glazier, Richard Henry

2011-08-19

Emergency departments are medical treatment facilities, designed to provide episodic care to patients suffering from acute injuries and illnesses as well as patients who are experiencing sporadic flare-ups of underlying chronic medical conditions which require immediate attention. Supply and demand for emergency department services varies across geographic regions and time. Some persons do not rely on the service at all whereas; others use the service on repeated occasions. Issues regarding increased wait times for services and crowding illustrate the need to investigate which factors are associated with increased frequency of emergency department utilization. The evidence from this study can help inform policy makers on the appropriate mix of supply and demand targeted health care policies necessary to ensure that patients receive appropriate health care delivery in an efficient and cost-effective manner. The purpose of this report is to assess those factors resulting in increased demand for emergency department services in Ontario. We assess how utilization rates vary according to the severity of patient presentation in the emergency department. We are specifically interested in the impact that access to primary care physicians has on the demand for emergency department services. Additionally, we wish to investigate these trends using a series of novel regression models for count outcomes which have yet to be employed in the domain of emergency medical research. Data regarding the frequency of emergency department visits for the respondents of Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) during our study interval (2003-2005) are obtained from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Patients' emergency department utilizations were linked with information from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) which provides individual level medical, socio-demographic, psychological and behavioral information for investigating predictors of increased emergency department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic. The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases. Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department utilization rates by approximately 43% for low severity triage level cases.

Statistical methods for the beta-binomial model in teratology.

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, E; Yanagimoto, T

1994-01-01

The beta-binomial model is widely used for analyzing teratological data involving littermates. Recent developments in statistical analyses of teratological data are briefly reviewed with emphasis on the model. For statistical inference of the parameters in the beta-binomial distribution, separation of the likelihood introduces an likelihood inference. This leads to reducing biases of estimators and also to improving accuracy of empirical significance levels of tests. Separate inference of the parameters can be conducted in a unified way. PMID:8187716

Traumatic Brain Injury among US Active Duty Military Personnel and Negative Drinking-Related Consequences

PubMed Central

Adams, Rachel Sayko; Larson, Mary Jo; Corrigan, John D.; Ritter, Grant A.; Williams, Thomas V.

2013-01-01

This study used the 2008 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors among Active Duty Military Personnel to determine whether traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with past year drinking-related consequences. The study sample included currently-drinking personnel who had a combat deployment in the past year and were home for ≥6 months (N = 3,350). Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the incidence rate ratios of consequences, by TBI-level. Experiencing a TBI with a loss of consciousness >20 minutes was significantly associated with consequences independent of demographics, combat exposure, posttraumatic stress disorder, and binge drinking. The study’s limitations are noted. PMID:23869456

[A study on the relationship between postmortem interval and the changes of DNA content in the kidney cellule of rat].

PubMed

Liu, L; Peng, D B; Liu, Y; Deng, W N; Liu, Y L; Li, J J

2001-05-01

To study changes of DNA content in the kidney cellule of rats and relationship with the postmortem interval. This experiment chose seven parameter of cell nuclear, including the area and integral optical density, determined the changes of DNA content in the kidney cellule of 15 rats at different intervals between 0 and 48 h postmortem with auto-TV-image system. The degradation rate of DNA in nuclear has a certainty relationship to early PMI(in 48 h) of rat, and get binomial regress equation. Determining the quantity of DNA in nuclear should be an objective and exact way to estimate the PMI.

Statistical procedures for analyzing mental health services data.

PubMed

Elhai, Jon D; Calhoun, Patrick S; Ford, Julian D

2008-08-15

In mental health services research, analyzing service utilization data often poses serious problems, given the presence of substantially skewed data distributions. This article presents a non-technical introduction to statistical methods specifically designed to handle the complexly distributed datasets that represent mental health service use, including Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated, and zero-truncated regression models. A flowchart is provided to assist the investigator in selecting the most appropriate method. Finally, a dataset of mental health service use reported by medical patients is described, and a comparison of results across several different statistical methods is presented. Implications of matching data analytic techniques appropriately with the often complexly distributed datasets of mental health services utilization variables are discussed.

The Impact of a Pay-for-Performance Program on Central Line-Associated Blood Stream Infections in Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Bastian, Nathaniel D; Kang, Hyojung; Nembhard, Harriet B; Bloschichak, Andrew; Griffin, Paul M

2016-01-01

Healthcare associated infections have significantly contributed to the rising cost of hospital care in the United States. The implementation of pay-for-performance (P4P) programs has been one approach to improve quality at a reduced cost. We quantify the impact of Highmark's Quality Blue (QB) hospital P4P program on central line-associated blood stream infections (CLABSI) in Pennsylvania. The impact of years of participation in QB on CLABSI is also evaluated. Data from 149 Pennsylvania hospitals on CLABSI from 2008-2013 are used. Negative binomial regression and fixed effects panel regression are performed. Hospitals participating in QB have 0.727 times the CLABSI as those hospitals that do not participate. Hospitals participating for four or more years have on average 3.13 fewer CLABSI per year compared to those participating for less than four years. Highmark's P4P program has shown improved outcomes with regards to CLABSI, but further research is needed to determine if QB is cost effective.

Early-life mortality risks in opposite-sex and same-sex twins: a Danish cohort study of the twin testosterone transfer hypothesis

PubMed Central

Ahrenfeldt, Linda Juel; Larsen, Lisbeth Aagaard; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Skytthe, Axel; Hjelmborg, Jacob v.B.; Möller, Sören; Christensen, Kaare

2017-01-01

Purpose To investigate the twin testosterone transfer (TTT) hypothesis by comparing early-life mortality risks of opposite-sex (OS) and same-sex (SS) twins during the first 15 years of life. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study to compare mortality in OS and SS twins. We included 68,629 live-born Danish twins from 1973 to 2009 identified through the Danish Twin Registry and performed piecewise stratified Cox regression and log-binomial regression. Results Among 1933 deaths, we found significantly higher mortality for twin boys than for twin girls. For both sexes, OS twins had lower mortality than SS twins; the difference persisted for the first year of life for boys and for the first week of life for girls. Conclusions Although the mortality risk for OS boys was in the expected direction according to the TTT hypothesis, the results for OS girls pointed in the opposite direction, providing no clear evidence for the TTT hypothesis. PMID:28024904

Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

2015-03-01

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Effects of climate and grazing on the vegetation cover change in Xilinguole League of Inner Mongolia, North China].

PubMed

Wang, Hai-Mei; Li, Zheng-Hai; Wang, Zhen

2013-01-01

Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations and the statistical data of livestock density in Xilinguole League in 1981-2007, and by using ArcGIS, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution of the climate aridity and livestock density in the League, and in combining with the ten-day data of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in 1981-2007, the driving factors of the vegetation cover change in the League were discussed. In the study period, there was a satisfactory linear regression relationship between the climate aridity and the vegetation coverage. The NDVI and the livestock density had a favorable binomial regression relationship. With the increase of NDVI, the livestock density increased first and decreased then. The vegetation coverage had a complex linear relationship with livestock density and climate aridity. The NDVI had a positive correlation with climate aridity, but a negative correlation with livestock density. Compared with livestock density, climate aridity had far greater effects on the NDVI.

Effect of a fall prevention program on balance maintenance using a quasi-experimental design in real-world settings.

PubMed

Robitaille, Yvonne; Fournier, Michel; Laforest, Sophie; Gauvin, Lise; Filiatrault, Johanne; Corriveau, Hélène

2012-08-01

To examine the effect of a fall prevention program offered under real-world conditions on balance maintenance several months after the program. To explore the program's impact on falls. A quasi-experimental study was conducted among community-dwelling seniors, with pre- and postintervention measures of balance performance and self-reported falls. Ten community-based organizations offered the intervention (98 participants) and 7 recruited participants to the study's control arm (102 participants). An earlier study examined balance immediately after the 12-week program. The present study focuses on the 12-month effect. Linear regression (balance) and negative binomial regression (falls) procedures were performed.falls. During the 12-month study period, experimental participants improved and maintained their balance as reflected by their scores on three performance tests. There was no evidence of an effect on falls.falls. Structured group exercise programs offered in community-based settings can maintain selected components of balance for several months after the program's end.

Binomial leap methods for simulating stochastic chemical kinetics.

PubMed

Tian, Tianhai; Burrage, Kevin

2004-12-01

This paper discusses efficient simulation methods for stochastic chemical kinetics. Based on the tau-leap and midpoint tau-leap methods of Gillespie [D. T. Gillespie, J. Chem. Phys. 115, 1716 (2001)], binomial random variables are used in these leap methods rather than Poisson random variables. The motivation for this approach is to improve the efficiency of the Poisson leap methods by using larger stepsizes. Unlike Poisson random variables whose range of sample values is from zero to infinity, binomial random variables have a finite range of sample values. This probabilistic property has been used to restrict possible reaction numbers and to avoid negative molecular numbers in stochastic simulations when larger stepsize is used. In this approach a binomial random variable is defined for a single reaction channel in order to keep the reaction number of this channel below the numbers of molecules that undergo this reaction channel. A sampling technique is also designed for the total reaction number of a reactant species that undergoes two or more reaction channels. Samples for the total reaction number are not greater than the molecular number of this species. In addition, probability properties of the binomial random variables provide stepsize conditions for restricting reaction numbers in a chosen time interval. These stepsize conditions are important properties of robust leap control strategies. Numerical results indicate that the proposed binomial leap methods can be applied to a wide range of chemical reaction systems with very good accuracy and significant improvement on efficiency over existing approaches. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Estimation of the cure rate in Iranian breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Rahimzadeh, Mitra; Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Gohari, Mahmood Reza; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

2014-01-01

Although the Cox's proportional hazard model is the popular approach for survival analysis to investigate significant risk factors of cancer patient survival, it is not appropriate in the case of log-term disease free survival. Recently, cure rate models have been introduced to distinguish between clinical determinants of cure and variables associated with the time to event of interest. The aim of this study was to use a cure rate model to determine the clinical associated factors for cure rates of patients with breast cancer (BC). This prospective cohort study covered 305 patients with BC, admitted at Shahid Faiazbakhsh Hospital, Tehran, during 2006 to 2008 and followed until April 2012. Cases of patient death were confirmed by telephone contact. For data analysis, a non-mixed cure rate model with Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were employed. All analyses were carried out using a developed Macro in WinBugs. Deviance information criteria (DIC) were employed to find the best model. The overall 1-year, 3-year and 5-year relative survival rates were 97%, 89% and 74%. Metastasis and stage of BC were the significant factors, but age was significant only in negative binomial model. The DIC also showed that the negative binomial model had a better fit. This study indicated that, metastasis and stage of BC were identified as the clinical criteria for cure rates. There are limited studies on BC survival which employed these cure rate models to identify the clinical factors associated with cure. These models are better than Cox, in the case of long-term survival.

Coronary artery calcium distributions in older persons in the AGES-Reykjavik study

PubMed Central

Gudmundsson, Elias Freyr; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur; Launer, Lenore J.; Harris, Tamara B.; Aspelund, Thor

2013-01-01

Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) is a sign of advanced atherosclerosis and an independent risk factor for cardiac events. Here, we describe CAC-distributions in an unselected aged population and compare modelling methods to characterize CAC-distribution. CAC is difficult to model because it has a skewed and zero inflated distribution with over-dispersion. Data are from the AGES-Reykjavik sample, a large population based study [2002-2006] in Iceland of 5,764 persons aged 66-96 years. Linear regressions using logarithmic- and Box-Cox transformations on CAC+1, quantile regression and a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZINB) were applied. Methods were compared visually and with the PRESS-statistic, R2 and number of detected associations with concurrently measured variables. There were pronounced differences in CAC according to sex, age, history of coronary events and presence of plaque in the carotid artery. Associations with conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors varied between the sexes. The ZINB model provided the best results with respect to the PRESS-statistic, R2, and predicted proportion of zero scores. The ZINB model detected similar numbers of associations as the linear regression on ln(CAC+1) and usually with the same risk factors. PMID:22990371

The Binomial Distribution in Shooting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chalikias, Miltiadis S.

2009-01-01

The binomial distribution is used to predict the winner of the 49th International Shooting Sport Federation World Championship in double trap shooting held in 2006 in Zagreb, Croatia. The outcome of the competition was definitely unexpected.

The Wild West: Associations between mining and violence in Western Australia.

PubMed

Gilmore, William; Liang, Wenbin; Chikritzhs, Tanya

2016-04-01

To investigate the association between mining activity and police-reported assault offences across Western Australia. A cross-sectional multivariable negative binomial regression analysis at the local government area level. Local government areas in Western Australia. Victims of reported assault offences occurring in 2008-2009. Eight reported assault measures by gender of victim and type of assault. The analysis controlled for a range of potentially confounding variables, including numbers of licensed outlets and alcohol sales. Compared with females in other areas, females in mining regions had a 64% increased risk of assault, a 59% increased risk of non-domestic assault and a 136% increased risk of sexual assault. Risk of domestic assault was 64% higher for males in mining regions. Regions where mining is a major employer of people usually or temporarily residing in the area (i.e. usual residents or temporary fly-in fly-out residents) are associated with higher risk of assaults among females and domestic assaults among males, and these associations appear to be independent of licensed outlet numbers and alcohol sales. Mining communities appear to present a special case for the management and reduction of violence; public health and safety intervention needs to identify and address risk factors independent of alcohol use. © 2015 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Medical Complexity among Children with Special Health Care Needs: A Two-Dimensional View.

PubMed

Coller, Ryan J; Lerner, Carlos F; Eickhoff, Jens C; Klitzner, Thomas S; Sklansky, Daniel J; Ehlenbach, Mary; Chung, Paul J

2016-08-01

To identify subgroups of U.S. children with special health care needs (CSHCN) and characterize key outcomes. Secondary analysis of 2009-2010 National Survey of CSHCN. Latent class analysis grouped individuals into substantively meaningful classes empirically derived from measures of pediatric medical complexity. Outcomes were compared among latent classes with weighted logistic or negative binomial regression. LCA identified four unique CSHCN subgroups: broad functional impairment (physical, cognitive, and mental health) with extensive health care (Class 1), broad functional impairment alone (Class 2), predominant physical impairment requiring family-delivered care (Class 3), and physical impairment alone (Class 4). CSHCN from Class 1 had the highest ED visit rates (IRR 3.3, p < .001) and hospitalization odds (AOR: 12.0, p < .001) and lowest odds of a medical home (AOR: 0.17, p < .001). CSHCN in Class 3, despite experiencing more shared decision making and medical home attributes, had more ED visits and missed school than CSHCN in Class 2 (p < .001); the latter, however, experienced more cost-related difficulties, care delays, and parents having to stop work (p < .001). Recognizing distinct impacts of cognitive and mental health impairments and health care delivery needs on CSHCN outcomes may better direct future intervention efforts. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Experimental design and data analysis of Ago-RIP-Seq experiments for the identification of microRNA targets.

PubMed

Tichy, Diana; Pickl, Julia Maria Anna; Benner, Axel; Sültmann, Holger

2017-03-31

The identification of microRNA (miRNA) target genes is crucial for understanding miRNA function. Many methods for the genome-wide miRNA target identification have been developed in recent years; however, they have several limitations including the dependence on low-confident prediction programs and artificial miRNA manipulations. Ago-RNA immunoprecipitation combined with high-throughput sequencing (Ago-RIP-Seq) is a promising alternative. However, appropriate statistical data analysis algorithms taking into account the experimental design and the inherent noise of such experiments are largely lacking.Here, we investigate the experimental design for Ago-RIP-Seq and examine biostatistical methods to identify de novo miRNA target genes. Statistical approaches considered are either based on a negative binomial model fit to the read count data or applied to transformed data using a normal distribution-based generalized linear model. We compare them by a real data simulation study using plasmode data sets and evaluate the suitability of the approaches to detect true miRNA targets by sensitivity and false discovery rates. Our results suggest that simple approaches like linear regression models on (appropriately) transformed read count data are preferable. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The relationship between employment and veteran status, disability and gender from 2004-2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS).

PubMed

Smith, Diane L

2014-01-01

In 2011, about 1.8 million or 8 percent of the 22.2 million veterans were women in the US. The unemployment rate for female veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan rose to 13.5%, above the 8.4% for non-veteran adult women. To examine data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), from 2004-2011 to determine the relationship between employment and veteran status, disability and gender. Chi square analysis was used to determine if significant differences existed between the employment rate of female veterans with disabilities and female veterans without disabilities, female non-veterans with disabilities and male veterans with disabilities. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine how veteran status, disability and gender affected the likelihood of not being employed. Significant differences were found in employment rate between female veterans with disabilities and female veterans without disabilities, but not when compared to female non-veterans with disabilities or male veterans with disabilities. Disability was the strongest factor increasing the likelihood of not being employed, though veteran status and female gender were also predictive. Female veterans with disabilities experience low levels of employment. Policies and programs are needed to address the unique needs of these veterans.

Race, Sex, and Discrimination in School Settings: A Multilevel Analysis of Associations With Delinquency.

PubMed

Chambers, Brittany D; Erausquin, Jennifer Toller

2018-02-01

Adolescence is a critical phase of development and experimentation with delinquent behaviors. There is a growing body of literature exploring individual and structural impacts of discrimination on health outcomes and delinquent behaviors. However, there is limited research assessing how school diversity and discrimination impact students' delinquent behaviors. In response, the purpose of this study was to assess if individual- and school-level indicators of discrimination and diversity were associated with student delinquent behaviors among African American and White students. We analyzed Wave I (1994-1995) data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Our analysis was limited to 8947 African American and White students (73% White, 48% male, and 88% parent ≥ high school education). We used multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial regression to test the association of individual- and school characteristics and discrimination with the number of self-reported delinquent behaviors. Race, sex, perceived peer inclusion, and teacher discrimination were predictors of students' delinquent behaviors. The average school perceived peer inclusion and percentage of African Americans in teaching roles were associated with delinquent behaviors. Findings from this study highlight the potential for intervention at the interpersonal and school levels to reduce delinquency among African American and White students. © 2018, American School Health Association.

Occurrence of human respiratory syncytial virus in summer in Japan.

PubMed

Shobugawa, Y; Takeuchi, T; Hibino, A; Hassan, M R; Yagami, R; Kondo, H; Odagiri, T; Saito, R

2017-01-01

In temperate zones, human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) outbreaks typically occur in cold weather, i.e. in late autumn and winter. However, recent outbreaks in Japan have tended to start during summer and autumn. This study examined associations of meteorological conditions with the numbers of HRSV cases reported in summer in Japan. Using data from the HRSV national surveillance system and national meteorological data for summer during the period 2007-2014, we utilized negative binomial logistic regression analysis to identify associations between meteorological conditions and reported cases of HRSV. HRSV cases increased when summer temperatures rose and when relative humidity increased. Consideration of the interaction term temperature × relative humidity enabled us to show synergistic effects of high temperature with HRSV occurrence. In particular, HRSV cases synergistically increased when relative humidity increased while the temperature was ⩾28·2 °C. Seasonal-trend decomposition analysis using the HRSV national surveillance data divided by 11 climate divisions showed that summer HRSV cases occurred in South Japan (Okinawa Island), Kyushu, and Nankai climate divisions, which are located in southwest Japan. Higher temperature and higher relative humidity were necessary conditions for HRSV occurrence in summer in Japan. Paediatricians in temperate zones should be mindful of possible HRSV cases in summer, when suitable conditions are present.

Dynamic analysis of interhospital collaboration and competition: empirical evidence from an Italian regional health system.

PubMed

Mascia, Daniele; Di Vincenzo, Fausto; Cicchetti, Americo

2012-05-01

Policymakers stimulate competition in universalistic health-care systems while encouraging the formation of service provision networks among hospital organizations. This article addresses a gap in the extant literature by empirically analyzing simultaneous collaboration and competition between hospitals within the Italian National Health Service, where important procompetition reforms have been implemented. To explore how rising competition between hospitals relates to their propensity to collaborate with other local providers. Longitudinal data on interhospital collaboration and competition collected in an Italian region from 2003 to 2007 are analyzed. Social network analysis techniques are applied to study the structure and dynamics of interhospital collaboration. Negative binomial regressions are employed to explore how interhospital competition relates to the collaborative network over time. Competition among providers does not hinder interhospital collaboration. Collaboration is primarily local, with resource complementarity and differentials in the volume of activity and hospital performance explaining the propensity to collaborate. Formation of collaborative networks among hospitals is not hampered by reforms aimed at fostering market forces. Because procompetition reforms elicit peculiar forms of managed competition in universalistic health systems, studies are needed to clarify whether the positive association between interhospital competition and collaboration can be generalized to other health-care settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of professional placement outcome: cultural background, English speaking and international student status.

PubMed

Attrill, Stacie; McAllister, Sue; Lincoln, Michelle

2016-08-01

Placements provide opportunities for students to develop practice skills in professional settings. Learning in placements may be challenging for culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) students, international students, or those without sufficient English proficiency for professional practice. This study investigated whether these factors, which are hypothesized to influence acculturation, predict poor placement outcome. Placement outcome data were collected for 854 students who completed 2747 placements. Placement outcome was categorized into 'Pass' or 'At risk' categories. Multilevel binomial regression analysis was used to determine whether being CALD, an international student, speaking 'English as an additional language', or a 'Language other than English at home' predicted placement outcome. In multiple multilevel analysis speaking English as an additional language and being an international student were significant predictors of 'at risk' placements, but other variables tested were not. Effect sizes were small indicating untested factors also influenced placement outcome. These results suggest that students' English as an additional language or international student status influences success in placements. The extent of acculturation may explain the differences in placement outcome for the groups tested. This suggests that learning needs for placement may differ for students undertaking more acculturative adjustments. Further research is needed to understand this and to identify placement support strategies.

Correspondence analysis to evaluate the transmission of Staphylococcus aureus strains in two New York State maximum-security prisons.

PubMed

Befus, M; Mukherjee, D V; Herzig, C T A; Lowy, F D; Larson, E

2017-07-01

Prisons/jails are thought to amplify the transmission of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) particularly methicillin-resistant SA infection and colonisation. Two independently pooled cross-sectional samples of detainees being admitted or discharged from two New York State maximum-security prisons were used to explore this concept. Private interviews of participants were conducted, during which the anterior nares and oropharynx were sampled and assessed for SA colonisation. Log-binomial regression and correspondence analysis (CA) were used to evaluate the prevalence of colonisation at entry as compared with discharge. Approximately 51% of admitted (N = 404) and 41% of discharged (N = 439) female detainees were colonised with SA. Among males, 59% of those admitted (N = 427) and 49% of those discharged (N = 393) were colonised. Females had a statistically significant higher prevalence (1·26: P = 0·003) whereas males showed no significant difference (1·06; P = 0·003) in SA prevalence between entry and discharge. CA demonstrated that some strains, such as spa types t571 and t002, might have an affinity for certain mucosal sites. Contrary to our hypothesis, the prison setting did not amplify SA transmission, and CA proved to be a useful tool in describing the population structure of strains according to time and/or mucosal site.

Transportation safety data and analysis : Volume 2, Calibration of the highway safety manual and development of new safety performance functions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

This report documents the calibration of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) safety performance function (SPF) : for rural two-lane two-way roadway segments in Utah and the development of new models using negative : binomial and hierarchical Bayesian mod...

Social determinants of leprosy in a hyperendemic State in North Brazil

PubMed Central

Monteiro, Lorena Dias; Mota, Rosa Maria Salani; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify the socioeconomic, demographic, operational, and health service-related factors associated with the occurrence of leprosy in a hyperendemic State in North Brazil. METHODS This is an ecological study based on secondary data from the Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação in municipalities of the State of Tocantins from 2001 to 2012. Units of analysis were the 139 municipalities of the State. Negative binomial log linear regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios. RESULTS In bivariate analysis, the incidence rate ratios were significantly higher for municipalities with higher income ratio of the poorest 20.0% (1.47; 95%CI 1.19–1.81) and better Municipal Human Development Index (1.53; 95%CI 1.14–2.06). In multivariate analysis, the incidence rate ratios were significantly higher in municipalities with higher proportion of immigrants (1.31; 95%CI 1.11–1.55) and higher proportion of households with waste collection (1.37; 95%CI 1.11–1.69). There was a significant reduction in the incidence rate ratio with increased coverage of the Bolsa Família Program (0.98; 95%CI 0.96–0.99). CONCLUSIONS Control programs need to focus on activities in municipalities of greater social vulnerability with intersectoral investment for the improvement of the living conditions of the population. PMID:28746575

Changes in pathology test ordering by early career general practitioners: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Magin, Parker J; Tapley, Amanda; Morgan, Simon; Henderson, Kim; Holliday, Elizabeth G; Davey, Andrew R; Ball, Jean; Catzikiris, Nigel F; Mulquiney, Katie J; van Driel, Mieke L

2017-07-17

To assess the number of pathology tests ordered by general practice registrars during their first 18-24 months of clinical general practice. Longitudinal analysis of ten rounds of data collection (2010-2014) for the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training (ReCEnT) study, an ongoing, multicentre, cohort study of general practice registrars in Australia. The principal analysis employed negative binomial regression in a generalised estimating equations framework (to account for repeated measures on registrars).Setting, participants: General practice registrars in training posts with five of 17 general practice regional training providers in five Australian states. The registrar participation rate was 96.4%. Number of pathology tests requested per consultation. The time unit for analysis was the registrar training term (the 6-month full-time equivalent component of clinical training); registrars contributed data for up to four training terms. 876 registrars contributed data for 114 584 consultations. The number of pathology tests requested increased by 11% (95% CI, 8-15%; P < 0.001) per training term. Contrary to expectations, pathology test ordering by general practice registrars increased significantly during their first 2 years of clinical practice. This causes concerns about overtesting. As established general practitioners order fewer tests than registrars, test ordering may peak during late vocational training and early career practice. Registrars need support during this difficult period in the development of their clinical practice patterns.

Unplanned pregnancy: does past experience influence the use of a contraceptive method?

PubMed

Matteson, Kristen A; Peipert, Jeffrey F; Allsworth, Jenifer; Phipps, Maureen G; Redding, Colleen A

2006-01-01

To investigate whether women between the ages of 14 and 25 years with a past unplanned pregnancy were more likely to use a contraceptive method compared with women without a history of unplanned pregnancy. We analyzed baseline data of 424 nonpregnant women between the ages of 14 and 25 years enrolled in a randomized trial to prevent sexually transmitted diseases and unplanned pregnancy (Project PROTECT). Women at high risk for sexually transmitted diseases or unplanned pregnancy were included. Participants completed a demographic, substance use, and reproductive health questionnaire. We compared women with and without a history of unplanned pregnancy using bivariate analysis and log binomial regression. The prevalence of past unplanned pregnancy in this sample was 43%. Women reporting an unplanned pregnancy were older, and had less education, and were more likely to be nonwhite race or ethnicity. History of an unplanned pregnancy was not associated with usage of a contraceptive method (relative risk 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.16) in bivariate analysis or when potential confounders were accounted for in the analysis (adjusted relative risk 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.95-1.28). Several factors were associated with both unplanned pregnancy and overall contraceptive method use in this population. However, a past unplanned pregnancy was not associated with overall contraceptive method usage. Future studies are necessary to investigate the complex relationship between unplanned pregnancy and contraceptive method use. II-2.

Food insecurity is associated with high risk glycemic control and higher health care utilization among youth and young adults with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Mendoza, Jason A; Haaland, Wren; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Martini, Lauren; Pihoker, Catherine; Frongillo, Edward A; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J; Liu, Lenna L; Dabelea, Dana; Lawrence, Jean M; Liese, Angela D

2018-04-01

Household food insecurity (FI), i.e., limited availability of nutritionally adequate foods, is associated with poor glycemic control among adults with type 2 diabetes. We evaluated the association of FI among youth and young adults (YYA) with type 1 diabetes to inform recent clinical recommendations from the American Diabetes Association for providers to screen all patients with diabetes for FI. Using data from the Washington and South Carolina SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study sites, we conducted an observational, cross-sectional evaluation of associations between FI and glycemic control, hospitalizations, and emergency department (ED) visits among YYA with type 1 diabetes. FI was assessed using the Household Food Security Survey Module, which queries conditions and behaviors typical of households unable to meet basic food needs. Participants' HbA 1c were measured from blood drawn at the research visit; socio-demographics and medical history were collected by survey. The prevalence of FI was 19.5%. In adjusted logistic regression analysis, YYAs from food-insecure households had 2.37 higher odds (95% CI: 1.10, 5.09) of high risk glycemic control, i.e., HbA 1c >9.0%, vs. peers from food-secure households. In adjusted binomial regression analysis for ED visits, YYAs from food-insecure households had an adjusted prevalence rate that was 2.95 times (95% CI [1.17, 7.45]) as great as those from food secure households. FI was associated with high risk glycemic control and more ED visits. Targeted efforts should be developed and tested to alleviate FI among YYA with type 1 diabetes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incidence of congenital syphilis in Brazil and its relationship with the Family Health Strategy.

PubMed

Araújo, Cinthia Lociks de; Shimizu, Helena Eri; Sousa, Artur Iuri Alves de; Hamann, Edgar Merchán

2012-06-01

To estimate the incidence of congenital syphilis and identify its relationship with Family Health Strategy coverage. An observational ecological study was carried out with both descriptive and analytical components, by two different approaches: one that explores a temporal series (2003 to 2008) and one that focuses on the 2008 data. The secondary data (epidemiological, demographic, and socioeconomic) were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Analysis of the possible effects of the implementation of the Family Health Strategy on the prevention of congenital syphilis was performed on selected subgroups of counties according to two approaches: a) the variation of the average annual rate of incidence of congenital syphilis in different strata of Family Health Program coverage between 2003 and 2008 and the calculation of the simple linear regression coefficient; and b) a negative binomial regression analysis of data from 2008 to control for confounding factors. Increasingly trends of congenital syphilis notification in Brazil reflect social inequalities in the distribution of cases. The incidence of congenital syphilis was lower in the counties with high Family Health Strategy coverage; however, after controlling for the co-variables, such an effect might be attributed to the coverage of prenatal care and the demographic characteristics of the counties where the implementation of the Strategy was a priority. Despite the increase in prenatal care coverage, the actions implemented still exhibit low effectiveness in the prevention of congenital syphilis. Prenatal care performed by Family Health Strategy teams did not control syphilis better than the prenatal care performed within the context of other models of assistance.

Drain Failure in Intra-Abdominal Abscesses Associated with Appendicitis.

PubMed

Horn, Christopher B; Coleoglou Centeno, Adrian A; Guerra, Jarot J; Mazuski, John E; Bochicchio, Grant V; Turnbull, Isaiah R

2018-04-01

Previous studies have suggested that percutaneous drainage and interval appendectomy is an effective treatment for appendicitis with associated abscess. Few studies to date have analyzed risk factors for failed drain management. We hypothesized that older patients with more co-morbidities would be at higher risk for failing conservative treatment. The 2010-2014 editions of the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) were queried for patients with diagnoses of peri-appendiceal abscesses. Minors and elective admissions were excluded. We identified patients who underwent percutaneous drainage and defined drain failure as undergoing a surgical operation after drainage but during the same inpatient visit to assess for factors associated with failure of drainage alone as a treatment. After univariable analysis, binomial logistic regression was used to assess for independent risk factors. Frequencies were analyzed by χ 2 and continuous variables by Student's t-test. A total of 2,209 patients with appendiceal abscesses received drains; 561 patients (25.4%) failed conservative management and underwent operative intervention. On univariable analysis, patients who failed conservative management were younger, more likely to be Hispanic, have more inpatient diagnoses, and to have undergone drainage earlier in the hospital course. Multivariable regression demonstrated that the number of diagnoses, female sex, and Hispanic race were predictive of failure of drainage alone. Older age, West and Midwest census regions, and later drain placement were predictive of successful treatment with drainage alone. Failure was associated with more charges and longer hospital stay but not with a higher mortality rate. Approximately a quarter of patients will fail management of appendiceal abscess with percutaneous drain placement alone. Risk factors for failure are patient complexity, female sex, earlier drainage, and Hispanic race. Failure of drainage is associated with higher total charges and longer hospital stay; however, no change in the mortality rate was noted.

The influence of marital status on the stage at diagnosis, treatment, and survival of adult patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Zhang, Jieyun; Gan, Lu; Wu, Zhenhua; Yan, Shican; Liu, Xiyu; Guo, Weijian

2017-04-04

Marital status was reported as a prognostic factor in many cancers. However, its role in gastric cancer (GC) hasn't been thoroughly explored. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effect of marital status on survival, stage, treatment, and survival in subgroups. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and identified 16910 GC patients. These patients were categorized into married (58.44%) and unmarred (41.56%) groups. Pearson chi-square, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney, Log-rank, multivariate Cox regression, univariate and multivariate binomial or multinomial logistic regression analysis were used in our analysis. Subgroup analyses of married versus unmarried patients were summarized in a forest plot. Married patients had better 5-year overall survival (OS) (32.09% VS 24.61%, P<0.001) and 5-year cancer-caused special survival (CSS) (37.74% VS 32.79%, P<0.001) than unmarried ones. Then we studied several underlying mechanisms. Firstly, married patients weren't in earlier stage at diagnosis (P=0.159). Secondly, married patients were more likely to receive surgery (P < 0.001) or radiotherapy (P < 0.001) compared with the unmarried. Thirdly, in subgroup analyses, married patients still had survival advantage in subgroups with stage II-IV and no radiotherapy. These results showed that marital status was an independently prognostic factor for both OS and CSS in GC patients. Undertreatment and lack of social support in unmarried patients were potential explanations. With the knowledge of heterogeneous effects of marriage in subgroups, we can target unmarried patients with better social support, especially who are diagnosed at late stage and undergo no treatment.

The influence of marital status on the stage at diagnosis, treatment, and survival of adult patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Yan, Shican; Liu, Xiyu; Guo, Weijian

2017-01-01

Background & Aims Marital status was reported as a prognostic factor in many cancers. However, its role in gastric cancer (GC) hasn't been thoroughly explored. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effect of marital status on survival, stage, treatment, and survival in subgroups. Methods We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and identified 16910 GC patients. These patients were categorized into married (58.44%) and unmarred (41.56%) groups. Pearson chi-square, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney, Log-rank, multivariate Cox regression, univariate and multivariate binomial or multinomial logistic regression analysis were used in our analysis. Subgroup analyses of married versus unmarried patients were summarized in a forest plot. Results Married patients had better 5-year overall survival (OS) (32.09% VS 24.61%, P<0.001) and 5-year cancer-caused special survival (CSS) (37.74% VS 32.79%, P<0.001) than unmarried ones. Then we studied several underlying mechanisms. Firstly, married patients weren't in earlier stage at diagnosis (P=0.159). Secondly, married patients were more likely to receive surgery (P < 0.001) or radiotherapy (P < 0.001) compared with the unmarried. Thirdly, in subgroup analyses, married patients still had survival advantage in subgroups with stage II-IV and no radiotherapy. Conclusions These results showed that marital status was an independently prognostic factor for both OS and CSS in GC patients. Undertreatment and lack of social support in unmarried patients were potential explanations. With the knowledge of heterogeneous effects of marriage in subgroups, we can target unmarried patients with better social support, especially who are diagnosed at late stage and undergo no treatment. PMID:26894860

Educational attainment has a limited impact on disease management outcomes in heart failure.

PubMed

Smith, Brad; Forkner, Emma; Krasuski, Richard A; Galbreath, Autumn Dawn; Freeman, Gregory L

2006-06-01

The objective of this study was to assess whether educational attainment moderates outcomes in the intervention group in a trial of disease management in heart failure (HF). Data were collected from a sample of 654 patients enrolled in the disease management arm of a community- based study of HF patients. The full sample was used to analyze two primary outcomes- all-cause mortality and cardiac event-free survival. Two other primary outcomes- rates of HF-related emergency department (ED) visits and inpatient admissions-and secondary outcomes (patient self-confidence in managing HF symptoms and daily dietary sodium intake in milligrams) were analyzed in a smaller sample of 602 patients who completed at least 6 months of disease management. One-way analysis of variance and chi (2) tests were used to assess differences in baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Survival analyses were conducted with proportional hazards regression, while negative binomial regression was used to assess educational differences in ED usage and inpatient admissions. Repeated measures analysis of variance models were used to assess whether secondary outcomes differed across educational strata and/or over time. All outcome analyses were adjusted for confounders. Patients with the least education fared the poorest for all-cause mortality, but education- related differences failed to achieve statistical significance. No education-related differences were observed for cardiac event-free survival, or for the rates of inpatient admission and ED usage. For secondary outcomes, sodium intake differed significantly by education (p = 0.04), with the largest drop (-838 mg/day) observed in the least well-educated group. Confidence increased an approximately equal amount (2.1-3.0 points on a 100-point scale) across all educational strata (p = ns). Low educational attainment may not be a barrier to effective disease management.

Indirect and direct costs of acute coronary syndromes with comorbid atrial fibrillation, heart failure, or both.

PubMed

Ghushchyan, Vahram; Nair, Kavita V; Page, Robert L

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the direct and indirect costs of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) alone and with common cardiovascular comorbidities. A retrospective analysis was conducted using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1998 to 2009. Four mutually exclusive cohorts were evaluated: ACS only, ACS with atrial fibrillation (AF), ACS with heart failure (HF), and ACS with both conditions. Direct costs were calculated for all-cause and cardiovascular-related health care resource utilization. Indirect costs were determined from productivity losses from missed days of work. Regression analysis was developed for each outcome controlling for age, US census region, insurance coverage, sex, race, ethnicity, education attainment, family income, and comorbidity burden. A negative binomial regression model was used for health care utilization variables. A Tobit model was utilized for health care costs and productivity loss variables. Total health care costs were greatest for those with ACS and both AF and HF ($38,484±5,191) followed by ACS with HF ($32,871±2,853), ACS with AF ($25,192±2,253), and ACS only ($17,954±563). Compared with the ACS only cohort, the mean all-cause adjusted health care costs associated with ACS with AF, ACS with HF, and ACS with AF and HF were $5,073 (95% confidence interval [CI] 719-9,427), $11,297 (95% CI 5,610-16,985), and $15,761 (95% CI 4,784-26,738) higher, respectively. Average wage losses associated with ACS with and without AF and/or HF amounted to $5,266 (95% CI -7,765, -2,767), when compared with patients without these conditions. ACS imposes a significant economic burden at both the individual and society level, particularly when with comorbid AF and HF.

Estimating relative risks in multicenter studies with a small number of centers - which methods to use? A simulation study.

PubMed

Pedroza, Claudia; Truong, Van Thi Thanh

2017-11-02

Analyses of multicenter studies often need to account for center clustering to ensure valid inference. For binary outcomes, it is particularly challenging to properly adjust for center when the number of centers or total sample size is small, or when there are few events per center. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of generalized estimating equation (GEE) log-binomial and Poisson models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) assuming binomial and Poisson distributions, and a Bayesian binomial GLMM to account for center effect in these scenarios. We conducted a simulation study with few centers (≤30) and 50 or fewer subjects per center, using both a randomized controlled trial and an observational study design to estimate relative risk. We compared the GEE and GLMM models with a log-binomial model without adjustment for clustering in terms of bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and coverage. For the Bayesian GLMM, we used informative neutral priors that are skeptical of large treatment effects that are almost never observed in studies of medical interventions. All frequentist methods exhibited little bias, and the RMSE was very similar across the models. The binomial GLMM had poor convergence rates, ranging from 27% to 85%, but performed well otherwise. The results show that both GEE models need to use small sample corrections for robust SEs to achieve proper coverage of 95% CIs. The Bayesian GLMM had similar convergence rates but resulted in slightly more biased estimates for the smallest sample sizes. However, it had the smallest RMSE and good coverage across all scenarios. These results were very similar for both study designs. For the analyses of multicenter studies with a binary outcome and few centers, we recommend adjustment for center with either a GEE log-binomial or Poisson model with appropriate small sample corrections or a Bayesian binomial GLMM with informative priors.

Estimating influenza and respiratory syncytial virus-associated mortality in Western Kenya using health and demographic surveillance system data, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Emukule, Gideon O; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Chaves, Sandra S; Mott, Joshua A; Tempia, Stefano; Bigogo, Godfrey; Nyawanda, Bryan; Nyaguara, Amek; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; van der Velden, Koos; Paget, John W

2017-01-01

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa. We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths. Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among ≥50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among <5 years. Using the rate-difference method, the excess mortality rate for influenza and RSV was 44.8 (95% CI 36.8-54.4) and 19.7 (95% CI 14.7-26.5) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for all-cause deaths; and 9.6 (95% CI 6.3-14.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.0) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for respiratory deaths. Our study shows a substantial excess mortality associated with influenza and RSV in Western Kenya, especially among children <5 years and older persons with TB, supporting recommendations for influenza vaccination and efforts to develop RSV vaccines.

Factors associated with the frequency of monitoring of liver enzymes, renal function and lipid laboratory markers among individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy: a cohort study.

PubMed

Gillis, Jennifer; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Burchell, Ann N; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina B; Loutfy, Mona; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio Sg; Tsoukas, Chris; Hogg, Robert S; Raboud, Janet

2015-10-26

As the average age of the HIV-positive population increases, there is increasing need to monitor patients for the development of comorbidities as well as for drug toxicities. We examined factors associated with the frequency of measurement of liver enzymes, renal function tests, and lipid levels among participants of the Canadian Observational Cohort (CANOC) collaboration which follows people who initiated HIV antiretroviral therapy in 2000 or later. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine the associations of demographic and clinical characteristics with the rates of measurement during follow-up. Generalized estimating equations with a logit link were used to examine factors associated with gaps of 12 months or more between measurements. Electronic laboratory data were available for 3940 of 7718 CANOC participants. The median duration of electronic follow-up was 3.5 years. The median (interquartile) rates of tests per year were 2.76 (1.60, 3.73), 2.55 (1.44, 3.38) and 1.42 (0.50, 2.52) for liver, renal and lipid parameters, respectively. In multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, individuals infected through injection drug use (IDU) were significantly less likely to have any measurements. Among participants with at least one measurement, rates of measurement of liver, renal and lipid tests were significantly lower for younger individuals and Aboriginal Peoples. Hepatitis C co-infected individuals with a history of IDU had lower rates of measurement and were at greater risk of having 12 month gaps between measurements. Hepatitis C co-infected participants infected through IDU were at increased risk of gaps in testing, despite publicly funded health care and increased risk of comorbid conditions. This should be taken into consideration in analyses examining factors associated with outcomes based on laboratory parameters.

The 6-min push test is reliable and predicts low fitness in spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Cowan, Rachel E; Callahan, Morgan K; Nash, Mark S

2012-10-01

The objective of this study is to assess 6-min push test (6MPT) reliability, determine whether the 6MPT is sensitive to fitness differences, and assess if 6MPT distance predicts fitness level in persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) or disease. Forty individuals with SCI who could self-propel a manual wheelchair completed an incremental arm crank peak oxygen consumption assessment and two 6MPTs across 3 d (37% tetraplegia (TP), 63% paraplegia (PP), 85% men, 70% white, 63% Hispanic, mean age = 34 ± 10 yr, mean duration of injury = 13 ± 10 yr, and mean body mass index = 24 ± 5 kg.m). Intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots assessed 6MPT distance (m) reliability. Mann-Whitney U test compared 6MPT distance (m) of high and low fitness groups for TP and PP. The fitness status prediction was developed using N = 30 and validated in N = 10 (validation group (VG)). A nonstatistical prediction approach, below or above a threshold distance (TP = 445 m and PP = 604 m), was validated statistically by binomial logistic regression. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were computed to evaluate the threshold approach. Intraclass correlation coefficients exceeded 0.90 for the whole sample and the TP/PP subsets. High fitness persons propelled farther than low fitness persons for both TP/PP (both P < 0.05). Binomial logistic regression (P < 0.008) predicted the same fitness levels in the VG as the threshold approach. In the VG, overall accuracy was 70%. Eighty-six percent of low fitness persons were correctly identified (sensitivity), and 33% of high fitness persons were correctly identified (specificity). The 6MPT may be a useful tool for SCI clinicians and researchers. 6MPT distance demonstrates excellent reliability and is sensitive to differences in fitness level. 6MPT distances less than a threshold distance may be an effective approach to identify low fitness in person with SCI.

The role of vaspin as a predictor of coronary angiography result in SCAD (stable coronary artery disease) patients.

PubMed

Stančík, Matej; Ságová, Ivana; Kantorová, Ema; Mokáň, Marián

2017-05-08

The role of vaspin in the pathogenesis of stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) have been repeatedly addressed in clinical studies. However, from the point of view of clinical practice, the results of earlier studies are still inconclusive. The data of 106 SCAD patients who received coronary angiography and 85 coronary artery disease-free controls were collected and analysed. The patients were divided into subgroups according to their pre-test probability (PTP) and according to the result of coronary angiography. Fasting vaspin concentrations were compared between subgroups of SCAD patients and between target group and controls. The effect of age and smoking on the result of coronary angiography was compared to the effect of vaspin using the binomial regression. We did not find significant difference in vaspin level between target group and controls. Unless the pre-test probability was taken into account, we did not find vaspin difference in the target group, when dividing patients on the basis of presence/absence of significant coronary stenosis. In the subgroup of SCAD patients with PTP between 15% - 65%, those with significant coronary stenoses had higher mean vaspin concentration (0,579 ± 0,898 ng/ml) than patients without significant stenoses. (0,379 ± 0,732 ng/ml) (t = -2595; p = 0,012; d = 0,658; 1-β = 0,850). Age, smoking status and vaspin significantly contributed to the HSCS prediction in binomial regression model in patients with low PTP (OR: 1.1, 4.9, 8.7, respectively). According to our results, vaspin cannot be used as an independent marker for the presence of CAD in general population. However, our results indicate that measuring vaspin in SCAD patients might be clinically useful in patients with PTP below 66%.

Phase transition and information cascade in a voting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hisakado, M.; Mori, S.

2010-08-01

In this paper, we introduce a voting model that is similar to a Keynesian beauty contest and analyse it from a mathematical point of view. There are two types of voters—copycat and independent—and two candidates. Our voting model is a binomial distribution (independent voters) doped in a beta binomial distribution (copycat voters). We find that the phase transition in this system is at the upper limit of t, where t is the time (or the number of the votes). Our model contains three phases. If copycats constitute a majority or even half of the total voters, the voting rate converges more slowly than it would in a binomial distribution. If independents constitute the majority of voters, the voting rate converges at the same rate as it would in a binomial distribution. We also study why it is difficult to estimate the conclusion of a Keynesian beauty contest when there is an information cascade.

Abstract knowledge versus direct experience in processing of binomial expressions

PubMed Central

Morgan, Emily; Levy, Roger

2016-01-01

We ask whether word order preferences for binomial expressions of the form A and B (e.g. bread and butter) are driven by abstract linguistic knowledge of ordering constraints referencing the semantic, phonological, and lexical properties of the constituent words, or by prior direct experience with the specific items in questions. Using forced-choice and self-paced reading tasks, we demonstrate that online processing of never-before-seen binomials is influenced by abstract knowledge of ordering constraints, which we estimate with a probabilistic model. In contrast, online processing of highly frequent binomials is primarily driven by direct experience, which we estimate from corpus frequency counts. We propose a trade-off wherein processing of novel expressions relies upon abstract knowledge, while reliance upon direct experience increases with increased exposure to an expression. Our findings support theories of language processing in which both compositional generation and direct, holistic reuse of multi-word expressions play crucial roles. PMID:27776281

A crash-prediction model for multilane roads.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; Guida, Maurizio; Parisi, Alessandra

2007-07-01

Considerable research has been carried out in recent years to establish relationships between crashes and traffic flow, geometric infrastructure characteristics and environmental factors for two-lane rural roads. Crash-prediction models focused on multilane rural roads, however, have rarely been investigated. In addition, most research has paid but little attention to the safety effects of variables such as stopping sight distance and pavement surface characteristics. Moreover, the statistical approaches have generally included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, whilst Negative Multinomial regression model has been used to a lesser extent. Finally, as far as the authors are aware, prediction models involving all the above-mentioned factors have still not been developed in Italy for multilane roads, such as motorways. Thus, in this paper crash-prediction models for a four-lane median-divided Italian motorway were set up on the basis of accident data observed during a 5-year monitoring period extending between 1999 and 2003. The Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial regression models, applied separately to tangents and curves, were used to model the frequency of accident occurrence. Model parameters were estimated by the Maximum Likelihood Method, and the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test was applied to detect the significant variables to be included in the model equation. Goodness-of-fit was measured by means of both the explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residuals Method was also used to test the adequacy of a regression model throughout the range of each variable. The candidate set of explanatory variables was: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS) and the presence of a junction (J). Separate prediction models for total crashes and for fatal and injury crashes only were considered. For curves it is shown that significant variables are L, 1/R and AADT, whereas for tangents they are L, AADT and junctions. The effect of rain precipitation was analysed on the basis of hourly rainfall data and assumptions about drying time. It is shown that a wet pavement significantly increases the number of crashes. The models developed in this paper for Italian motorways appear to be useful for many applications such as the detection of critical factors, the estimation of accident reduction due to infrastructure and pavement improvement, and the predictions of accidents counts when comparing different design options. Thus this research may represent a point of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane roads.

M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

PubMed

Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

2016-11-01

This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do US Ambient Air Lead Levels Have a Significant Impact on Childhood Blood Lead Levels: Results of a National Study

PubMed Central

Brink, LuAnn L.; Talbott, Evelyn O.; Sharma, Ravi K.; Marsh, Gary M.; Wu, Wen Chi; Rager, Judith R.; Strosnider, Heather M.

2013-01-01

Introduction. Although lead paint and leaded gasoline have not been used in the US for thirty years, thousands of US children continue to have blood lead levels (BLLs) of concern. Methods. We investigated the potential association of modeled air lead levels and BLLs ≥ 10 μg/dL using a large CDC database with BLLs on children aged 0–3 years. Percent of children with BLLs ≥ 10 μg/dL (2000–2007) by county and proportion of pre-50 housing and SES variables were merged with the US EPA's National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) modeled air lead data. Results. The proportion with BLL ≥ 10 μg/dL was 1.24% in the highest air lead counties, and the proportion with BLL ≥ 10 μg/dL was 0.36% in the lowest air lead counties, resulting in a crude prevalence ratio of 3.4. Further analysis using multivariate negative binomial regression revealed that NATA lead was a significant predictor of % BLL ≥ 10 μg/dL after controlling for percent pre-l950 housing, percent rural, and percent black. A geospatial regression revealed that air lead, percent older housing, and poverty were all significant predictors of % BLL ≥ 10 μg/dL. Conclusions. More emphasis should be given to potential sources of ambient air lead near residential areas. PMID:23983719

Meningococcal vaccination in primary care amongst adolescents in North West England: an ecological study investigating associations with general practice characteristics.

PubMed

Blagden, Sarah; Hungerford, Daniel; Limmer, Mark

2018-01-27

In 2015 the meningococcal ACWY (MenACWY) vaccination was introduced amongst adolescents in England following increased incidence and mortality associated with meningococcal group W. MenACWY vaccination uptake data for 17-18 years old and students delivered in primary care were obtained for 20 National Health Service clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) via the ImmForm vaccination system. Data on general practice characteristics, encompassing demographics and patient satisfaction variables, were extracted from the National General Practice Profiles resource. Univariable analysis of the associations between practice characteristics and vaccination was performed, followed by multivariable negative binomial regression. Data were utilized from 587 general practices, accounting for ~8% of all general practices in England. MenACWY vaccination uptake varied from 20.8% to 46.8% across the CCGs evaluated. Upon multivariable regression, vaccination uptake increased with increasing percentage of patients from ethnic minorities, increasing percentage of patients aged 15-24 years, increasing percentage of patients that would recommend their practice and total Quality and Outcomes Framework achievement for the practice. Conversely, vaccination uptake decreased with increasing deprivation. This study has identified several factors independently associated with MenACWY vaccination in primary care. These findings will enable a targeted approach to improve general practice-level vaccination uptake. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Development of a mobbing short scale in the Gutenberg Health Study.

PubMed

Garthus-Niegel, Susan; Nübling, Matthias; Letzel, Stephan; Hegewald, Janice; Wagner, Mandy; Wild, Philipp S; Blettner, Maria; Zwiener, Isabella; Latza, Ute; Jankowiak, Sylvia; Liebers, Falk; Seidler, Andreas

2016-01-01

Despite its highly detrimental potential, most standard questionnaires assessing psychosocial stress at work do not include mobbing as a risk factor. In the German standard version of COPSOQ, mobbing is assessed with a single item. In the Gutenberg Health Study, this version was used together with a newly developed short scale based on the Leymann Inventory of Psychological Terror. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of these two measures, to compare them and to test their differential impact on relevant outcome parameters. This analysis is based on a population-based sample of 1441 employees participating in the Gutenberg Health Study. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and reliability analyses were used to assess the mobbing scale. To determine their predictive validities, multiple linear regression analyses with six outcome parameters and log-binomial regression models for two of the outcome aspects were run. Factor analyses of the five-item scale confirmed a one-factor solution, reliability was α = 0.65. Both the single-item and the five-item scales were associated with all six outcome scales. Effect sizes were similar for both mobbing measures. Mobbing is an important risk factor for health-related outcomes. For the purpose of psychosocial risk assessment in the workplace, both the single-item and the five-item constructs were psychometrically appropriate. Associations with outcomes were about equivalent. However, the single item has the advantage of parsimony, whereas the five-item construct depicts several distinct forms of mobbing.

Investigating the role of health care at birth on inequalities in neonatal survival: evidence from Bangladesh

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction In countries such as Bangladesh many women may only seek skilled care at birth when complications become evident. This often results in higher neonatal mortality for women who give birth in institutions than for those that give birth at home. However, we hypothesise that this apparent excess mortality is concentrated among less advantaged women. The aim of this paper is to examine the association between place of birth and neonatal mortality in Bangladesh, and how this varies by socio-economic status. Methodology The study is based on pooled data from four Bangladesh Demographic and Household Surveys, and uses descriptive analysis and binomial multivariate logistic regression. It uses regression models stratified for place of delivery to examine the impact of socio-economic status and place of residence on neonatal mortality. Results Poor women from rural areas and those with no education who gave birth in institutions had much worse outcomes than those who gave birth at home. There is no difference for more wealthy women. There is a much stronger socio-economic gradient in neonatal mortality for women who gave birth in institutions than those who delivered at home. Conclusion In Bangladesh babies from lower socio-economic groups and particularly those in rural areas have very poor outcomes if born in a facility. This suggests poorer, rural and less educated women are failing to obtain the timely access to quality maternal health care services needed to improve newborn outcomes. PMID:23496964

The differences in healthcare utilization for dental caries based on the implementation of water fluoridation in South Korea.

PubMed

Cho, Myung-Soo; Han, Kyu-Tae; Park, Sohee; Moon, Ki Tae; Park, Eun-Cheol

2016-11-08

There were some debates about the water fluoridation program in South Korea, even if the program had generally substantial effectiveness. Because the out-of-pocket expenditures for dental care were higher in South Korea than in other countries, an efficient solution was needed. Therefore, we examined the relationship between the implementation of water fluoridation and the utilization of dental care. We used the National Health Insurance Service National Sample Cohort. In this study, data finally included 472,250 patients who were newly diagnosed with dental caries during 2003-2013. We performed survival analysis using cox proportional hazard model, negative binomial-regression, and regression analyses using generalized estimating equation models. There were 48.49 % outpatient dental care visit during study period. Individuals with water fluoridation had a lower risk of dental care visits (HR = 0.949, 95 % CI = 0.928-0.971). Among the individuals who experienced a dental care visit, those with water fluoridation program had a lower number of dental care visits (β = -0.029), and the period of water fluoridation had an inverse association with the dental care expenditures. The implementation of water fluoridation programs and these periods are associated with reducing the utilization of dental health care. Considering these positive impacts, healthcare professionals must consider preventive strategies for activating water fluoridation programs, such as changes in public perception and relations, for the effective management of dental care in South Korea.

Self-declared stock ownership and association with positive trial outcome in randomized controlled trials with binary outcomes published in general medical journals: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Falk Delgado, Alberto; Falk Delgado, Anna

2017-07-26

Describe the prevalence and types of conflicts of interest (COI) in published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in general medical journals with a binary primary outcome and assess the association between conflicts of interest and favorable outcome. Parallel-group RCTs with a binary primary outcome published in three general medical journals during 2013-2015 were identified. COI type, funding source, and outcome were extracted. Binomial logistic regression model was performed to assess association between COI and funding source with outcome. A total of 509 consecutive parallel-group RCTs were included in the study. COI was reported in 74% in mixed funded RCTs and in 99% in for-profit funded RCTs. Stock ownership was reported in none of the non-profit RCTs, in 7% of mixed funded RCTs, and in 50% of for-profit funded RCTs. Mixed-funded RCTs had employees from the funding company in 11% and for-profit RCTs in 76%. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that stock ownership in the funding company among any of the authors was associated with a favorable outcome (odds ratio = 3.53; 95% confidence interval = 1.59-7.86; p < 0.01). COI in for-profit funded RCTs is extensive, because the factors related to COI are not fully independent, a multivariable analysis should be cautiously interpreted. However, after multivariable adjustment only stock ownership from the funding company among authors is associated with a favorable outcome.

Joint Analysis of Binomial and Continuous Traits with a Recursive Model: A Case Study Using Mortality and Litter Size of Pigs

PubMed Central

Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

2014-01-01

This work presents a model for the joint analysis of a binomial and a Gaussian trait using a recursive parametrization that leads to a computationally efficient implementation. The model is illustrated in an analysis of mortality and litter size in two breeds of Danish pigs, Landrace and Yorkshire. Available evidence suggests that mortality of piglets increased partly as a result of successful selection for total number of piglets born. In recent years there has been a need to decrease the incidence of mortality in pig-breeding programs. We report estimates of genetic variation at the level of the logit of the probability of mortality and quantify how it is affected by the size of the litter. Several models for mortality are considered and the best fits are obtained by postulating linear and cubic relationships between the logit of the probability of mortality and litter size, for Landrace and Yorkshire, respectively. An interpretation of how the presence of genetic variation affects the probability of mortality in the population is provided and we discuss and quantify the prospects of selecting for reduced mortality, without affecting litter size. PMID:24414548

On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.

PubMed

Aydogmus, Ozgur

2016-09-01

We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

PubMed

Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

2016-06-14

To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

Determinants of The Grade A Embryos in Infertile Women; Zero-Inflated Regression Model.

PubMed

Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Ghaheri, Azadeh; Omani Samani, Reza

2017-10-01

In assisted reproductive technology, it is important to choose high quality embryos for embryo transfer. The aim of the present study was to determine the grade A embryo count and factors related to it in infertile women. This historical cohort study included 996 infertile women. The main outcome was the number of grade A embryos. Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression were used to model the count data as it contained excessive zeros. Stata software, version 13 (Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA) was used for all statistical analyses. After adjusting for potential confounders, results from the ZINB model show that for each unit increase in the number 2 pronuclear (2PN) zygotes, we get an increase of 1.45 times as incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23-1.69, P=0.001) in the expected grade A embryo count number, and for each increase in the cleavage day we get a decrease 0.35 times (95% CI: 0.20-0.61, P=0.001) in expected grade A embryo count. There is a significant association between both the number of 2PN zygotes and cleavage day with the number of grade A embryos in both ZINB and ZIP regression models. The estimated coefficients are more plausible than values found in earlier studies using less relevant models. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Association between Romantic Relationships and Delinquency in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Cui, Ming; Ueno, Koji; Fincham, Frank D.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Wickrama, K. A. S.

2011-01-01

This study examined the association between romantic relationships and delinquency in adolescence and young adulthood. Using a large, longitudinal, and nationally representative sample, results from negative binomial regressions showed a positive association between romantic involvement and delinquency in adolescence. Further, the cumulative number of romantic relationships from adolescence to young adulthood was positively related to delinquency in young adulthood even controlling for earlier delinquency in adolescence. These analyses also controlled for the effects of participant gender, age at initial assessment, puberty, race/ethnicity, and other demographic characteristics (e.g., family structure and parents’ education). Findings are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding the role of romantic relationships in the development of young people and for stimulating future research questions. PMID:22984343

Factors affecting road mortality of white-tailed deer in eastern South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Klaver, Robert W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Galster, Dwight H.; Schauer, Ron J.; Morlock, Wilbert W.; Delger, Joshua A.

2008-01-01

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortalities (n = 4,433) caused by collisions with automobiles during 2003 were modeled in 35 counties in eastern South Dakota. Seventeen independent variables and 5 independent variable interactions were evaluated to explain deer mortalities. A negative binomial regression model (Ln Y = 1.25 – 0.12 [percentage tree coverage] + 0.0002 [county area] + 5.39 [county hunter success rate] + 0.0023 [vehicle proxy 96–104 km/hr roads], model deviance = 33.43, χ2 = 27.53, df = 27) was chosen using a combination of a priori model selection and AICc. Management options include use of the model to predict road mortalities and to increase the number of hunting licenses, which could result in fewer DVCs.

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: A multiscale joinpoint regression analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Methods Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. Results State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Conclusions Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes. PMID:22142274

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: a multiscale joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre; Xiao, Hong

2011-12-05

Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes.

Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of avian influenza in Spain.

PubMed

Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Perez, Andrés; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

2012-08-01

Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Comparison and Field Validation of Binomial Sampling Plans for Oligonychus perseae (Acari: Tetranychidae) on Hass Avocado in Southern California.

PubMed

Lara, Jesus R; Hoddle, Mark S

2015-08-01

Oligonychus perseae Tuttle, Baker, & Abatiello is a foliar pest of 'Hass' avocados [Persea americana Miller (Lauraceae)]. The recommended action threshold is 50-100 motile mites per leaf, but this count range and other ecological factors associated with O. perseae infestations limit the application of enumerative sampling plans in the field. Consequently, a comprehensive modeling approach was implemented to compare the practical application of various binomial sampling models for decision-making of O. perseae in California. An initial set of sequential binomial sampling models were developed using three mean-proportion modeling techniques (i.e., Taylor's power law, maximum likelihood, and an empirical model) in combination with two-leaf infestation tally thresholds of either one or two mites. Model performance was evaluated using a robust mite count database consisting of >20,000 Hass avocado leaves infested with varying densities of O. perseae and collected from multiple locations. Operating characteristic and average sample number results for sequential binomial models were used as the basis to develop and validate a standardized fixed-size binomial sampling model with guidelines on sample tree and leaf selection within blocks of avocado trees. This final validated model requires a leaf sampling cost of 30 leaves and takes into account the spatial dynamics of O. perseae to make reliable mite density classifications for a 50-mite action threshold. Recommendations for implementing this fixed-size binomial sampling plan to assess densities of O. perseae in commercial California avocado orchards are discussed. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effect of Flexible Duty Hour Policies on Length of Stay for Complex Intra-Abdominal Operations: A Flexibility in Duty Hour Requirements for Surgical Trainees (FIRST) Trial Analysis.

PubMed

Stulberg, Jonah J; Pavey, Emily S; Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Hoyt, David B; Bilimoria, Karl Y

2017-02-01

Changes to resident duty hour policies in the Flexibility in Duty Hour Requirements for Surgical Trainees (FIRST) trial could impact hospitalized patients' length of stay (LOS) by altering care coordination. Length of stay can also serve as a reflection of all complications, particularly those not captured in the FIRST trial (eg pneumothorax from central line). Programs were randomized to either maintaining current ACGME duty hour policies (Standard arm) or more flexible policies waiving rules on maximum shift lengths and time off between shifts (Flexible arm). Our objective was to determine whether flexibility in resident duty hours affected LOS in patients undergoing high-risk surgical operations. Patients were identified who underwent hepatectomy, pancreatectomy, laparoscopic colectomy, open colectomy, or ventral hernia repair (2014-2015 academic year) at 154 hospitals participating in the FIRST trial. Two procedure-stratified evaluations of LOS were undertaken: multivariable negative binomial regression analysis on LOS and a multivariable logistic regression analysis on the likelihood of a prolonged LOS (>75 th percentile). Before any adjustments, there was no statistically significant difference in overall mean LOS between study arms (Flexible Policy: mean [SD] LOS 6.03 [5.78] days vs Standard Policy: mean LOS 6.21 [5.82] days; p = 0.74). In adjusted analyses, there was no statistically significant difference in LOS between study arms overall (incidence rate ratio for Flexible vs Standard: 0.982; 95% CI, 0.939-1.026; p = 0.41) or for any individual procedures. In addition, there was no statistically significant difference in the proportion of patients with prolonged LOS between study arms overall (Flexible vs Standard: odds ratio = 1.028; 95% CI, 0.871-1.212) or for any individual procedures. Duty hour flexibility had no statistically significant effect on LOS in patients undergoing complex intra-abdominal operations. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using the Binomial Series to Prove the Arithmetic Mean-Geometric Mean Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Persky, Ronald L.

2003-01-01

In 1968, Leon Gerber compared (1 + x)[superscript a] to its kth partial sum as a binomial series. His result is stated and, as an application of this result, a proof of the arithmetic mean-geometric mean inequality is presented.

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials.

PubMed

Postler, Thomas S; Clawson, Anna N; Amarasinghe, Gaya K; Basler, Christopher F; Bavari, Sbina; Benko, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S; Collins, Peter L; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L; Dietzgen, Ralf G; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M; Easton, Andrew J; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A M; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A; Leroy, Eric M; Lukashevich, Igor S; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R; Netesov, Sergey V; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L; Payne, Susan L; PaWeska, Janusz T; Peters, Clarence J; Radoshitzky, Sheli R; Rima, Bertus K; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J; Stenglein, Mark D; Stone, David M; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E; Zerbini, F Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H

2017-05-01

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Society of Systematic Biologists 2016. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

[The reentrant binomial model of nuclear anomalies growth in rhabdomyosarcoma RA-23 cell populations under increasing doze of rare ionizing radiation].

PubMed

Alekseeva, N P; Alekseev, A O; Vakhtin, Iu B; Kravtsov, V Iu; Kuzovatov, S N; Skorikova, T I

2008-01-01

Distributions of nuclear morphology anomalies in transplantable rabdomiosarcoma RA-23 cell populations were investigated under effect of ionizing radiation from 0 to 45 Gy. Internuclear bridges, nuclear protrusions and dumbbell-shaped nuclei were accepted for morphological anomalies. Empirical distributions of the number of anomalies per 100 nuclei were used. The adequate model of reentrant binomial distribution has been found. The sum of binomial random variables with binomial number of summands has such distribution. Averages of these random variables were named, accordingly, internal and external average reentrant components. Their maximum likelihood estimations were received. Statistical properties of these estimations were investigated by means of statistical modeling. It has been received that at equally significant correlation between the radiation dose and the average of nuclear anomalies in cell populations after two-three cellular cycles from the moment of irradiation in vivo the irradiation doze significantly correlates with internal average reentrant component, and in remote descendants of cell transplants irradiated in vitro - with external one.

The Difference Calculus and The NEgative Binomial Distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o; Shenton, LR

2007-01-01

In a previous paper we state the dominant term in the third central moment of the maximum likelihood estimator k of the parameter k in the negative binomial probability function where the probability generating function is (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}. A partial sum of the series {Sigma}1/(k + x){sup 3} is involved, where x is a negative binomial random variate. In expectation this sum can only be found numerically using the computer. Here we give a simple definite integral in (0,1) for the generalized case. This means that now we do have a valid expression for {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(k)more » and {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(p). In addition we use the finite difference operator {Delta}, and E = 1 + {Delta} to set up formulas for low order moments. Other examples of the operators are quoted relating to the orthogonal set of polynomials associated with the negative binomial probability function used as a weight function.« less

Sampling--how big a sample?

PubMed

Aitken, C G

1999-07-01

It is thought that, in a consignment of discrete units, a certain proportion of the units contain illegal material. A sample of the consignment is to be inspected. Various methods for the determination of the sample size are compared. The consignment will be considered as a random sample from some super-population of units, a certain proportion of which contain drugs. For large consignments, a probability distribution, known as the beta distribution, for the proportion of the consignment which contains illegal material is obtained. This distribution is based on prior beliefs about the proportion. Under certain specific conditions the beta distribution gives the same numerical results as an approach based on the binomial distribution. The binomial distribution provides a probability for the number of units in a sample which contain illegal material, conditional on knowing the proportion of the consignment which contains illegal material. This is in contrast to the beta distribution which provides probabilities for the proportion of a consignment which contains illegal material, conditional on knowing the number of units in the sample which contain illegal material. The interpretation when the beta distribution is used is much more intuitively satisfactory. It is also much more flexible in its ability to cater for prior beliefs which may vary given the different circumstances of different crimes. For small consignments, a distribution, known as the beta-binomial distribution, for the number of units in the consignment which are found to contain illegal material, is obtained, based on prior beliefs about the number of units in the consignment which are thought to contain illegal material. As with the beta and binomial distributions for large samples, it is shown that, in certain specific conditions, the beta-binomial and hypergeometric distributions give the same numerical results. However, the beta-binomial distribution, as with the beta distribution, has a more intuitively satisfactory interpretation and greater flexibility. The beta and the beta-binomial distributions provide methods for the determination of the minimum sample size to be taken from a consignment in order to satisfy a certain criterion. The criterion requires the specification of a proportion and a probability.

Quantification of integrated HIV DNA by repetitive-sampling Alu-HIV PCR on the basis of poisson statistics.

PubMed

De Spiegelaere, Ward; Malatinkova, Eva; Lynch, Lindsay; Van Nieuwerburgh, Filip; Messiaen, Peter; O'Doherty, Una; Vandekerckhove, Linos

2014-06-01

Quantification of integrated proviral HIV DNA by repetitive-sampling Alu-HIV PCR is a candidate virological tool to monitor the HIV reservoir in patients. However, the experimental procedures and data analysis of the assay are complex and hinder its widespread use. Here, we provide an improved and simplified data analysis method by adopting binomial and Poisson statistics. A modified analysis method on the basis of Poisson statistics was used to analyze the binomial data of positive and negative reactions from a 42-replicate Alu-HIV PCR by use of dilutions of an integration standard and on samples of 57 HIV-infected patients. Results were compared with the quantitative output of the previously described Alu-HIV PCR method. Poisson-based quantification of the Alu-HIV PCR was linearly correlated with the standard dilution series, indicating that absolute quantification with the Poisson method is a valid alternative for data analysis of repetitive-sampling Alu-HIV PCR data. Quantitative outputs of patient samples assessed by the Poisson method correlated with the previously described Alu-HIV PCR analysis, indicating that this method is a valid alternative for quantifying integrated HIV DNA. Poisson-based analysis of the Alu-HIV PCR data enables absolute quantification without the need of a standard dilution curve. Implementation of the CI estimation permits improved qualitative analysis of the data and provides a statistical basis for the required minimal number of technical replicates. © 2014 The American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

A methodology to design heuristics for model selection based on the characteristics of data: Application to investigate when the Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB).

PubMed

Shirazi, Mohammadali; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

2017-10-01

Safety analysts usually use post-modeling methods, such as the Goodness-of-Fit statistics or the Likelihood Ratio Test, to decide between two or more competitive distributions or models. Such metrics require all competitive distributions to be fitted to the data before any comparisons can be accomplished. Given the continuous growth in introducing new statistical distributions, choosing the best one using such post-modeling methods is not a trivial task, in addition to all theoretical or numerical issues the analyst may face during the analysis. Furthermore, and most importantly, these measures or tests do not provide any intuitions into why a specific distribution (or model) is preferred over another (Goodness-of-Logic). This paper ponders into these issues by proposing a methodology to design heuristics for Model Selection based on the characteristics of data, in terms of descriptive summary statistics, before fitting the models. The proposed methodology employs two analytic tools: (1) Monte-Carlo Simulations and (2) Machine Learning Classifiers, to design easy heuristics to predict the label of the 'most-likely-true' distribution for analyzing data. The proposed methodology was applied to investigate when the recently introduced Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) distribution is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Heuristics were designed to select the 'most-likely-true' distribution between these two distributions, given a set of prescribed summary statistics of data. The proposed heuristics were successfully compared against classical tests for several real or observed datasets. Not only they are easy to use and do not need any post-modeling inputs, but also, using these heuristics, the analyst can attain useful information about why the NB-L is preferred over the NB - or vice versa- when modeling data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Binomial Model in Fluctuation Analysis of Quantal Neurotransmitter Release

PubMed Central

Quastel, D. M. J.

1997-01-01

The mathematics of the binomial model for quantal neurotransmitter release is considered in general terms, to explore what information might be extractable from statistical aspects of data. For an array of N statistically independent release sites, each with a release probability p, the compound binomial always pertains, with = N

, p′ ≡ 1 - var(m)/ =

(1 + cvp2) and n′ ≡ /p′ = N/(1 + cvp2), where m is the output/stimulus and cvp2 is var(p)/

2. Unless n′ is invariant with ambient conditions or stimulation paradigms, the simple binomial (cvp = 0) is untenable and n′ is neither N nor the number of “active” sites or sites with a quantum available. At each site p = popA, where po is the output probability if a site is “eligible” or “filled” despite previous quantal discharge, and pA (eligibility probability) depends at least on the replenishment rate, po, and interstimulus time. Assuming stochastic replenishment, a simple algorithm allows calculation of the full statistical composition of outputs for any hypothetical combinations of po's and refill rates, for any stimulation paradigm and spontaneous release. A rise in n′ (reduced cvp) tends to occur whenever po varies widely between sites, with a raised stimulation frequency or factors tending to increase po's. Unlike and var(m) at equilibrium, output changes early in trains of stimuli, and covariances, potentially provide information about whether changes in reflect change in or in . Formulae are derived for variance and third moments of postsynaptic responses, which depend on the quantal mix in the signals. A new, easily computed function, the area product, gives noise-unbiased variance of a series of synaptic signals and its peristimulus time distribution, which is modified by the unit channel composition of quantal responses and if the signals reflect mixed responses from synapses with different quantal time course. PMID:9017200

Selecting Tools to Model Integer and Binomial Multiplication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pratt, Sarah Smitherman; Eddy, Colleen M.

2017-01-01

Mathematics teachers frequently provide concrete manipulatives to students during instruction; however, the rationale for using certain manipulatives in conjunction with concepts may not be explored. This article focuses on area models that are currently used in classrooms to provide concrete examples of integer and binomial multiplication. The…

The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Ross, Craig S.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy—the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm—and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level. Methods. We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders. Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%. Conclusions. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides. PMID:24028252

Social capital and oral health: The association of social capital with edentulism and chewing ability in the rural elderly.

PubMed

Kim, Eun-Kyong; Jung, Yun-Sook; Kim, Kyung-Hee; Kim, Ki-Rim; Kwon, Gi-Hong; Choi, Youn-Hee; Lee, Hee-Kyung

2018-01-01

The association between social capital and oral health had been reported in various ways, but still remains unclear. We investigated the association between the social capital of the elderly living in a rural region and their edentulism and chewing ability. A total of 241 elderly aged≥70years living in a rural city of Korea participated in this cross-sectional study. Their social capital was surveyed by questionnaire assessing its network and trust dimensions. Their edentulism and chewing ability were assessed by oral examination and chewing gum whose color changes based on the mastication performance. The mean age of the participants was 82.7 (ranged 71 to 101) years and 68.8% of them were female. In the binomial regression analysis, the general network aspect of the network dimension was significantly associated with chewing ability, of which the prevalence ratio was 1.88 (95% CI: 1.16-3.06) in the age, sex, education and marital status-adjusted model. Our findings suggest that social capital, such as a poor social network, is associated with poor chewing ability in the elderly living in rural areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An economic analysis of community-level fast food prices and individual-level fast food intake: longitudinal effects

PubMed Central

Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Guilkey, David K.; Popkin, Barry M.

2011-01-01

Background While dietary intake is shaped by cost, there is minimal research on the association between community-level food prices and dietary intake. Methods We used nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine how community-level food price variation was associated with individual-level fast food intake by race/ethnicity and income across waves II (1996) and III (2001–02) of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n=11,088) from 158 baseline and 363 follow-up US counties. Results Negative binomial regression models predicting the number of fast food meals per week show strong relationships between fast food consumption and prices of fast food and soda that varied by gender and race/ethnicity. We found relatively stronger association between food prices and fast food intake for males and relatively greater price sensitivity for soda versus burgers. In the group with strongest associations (black males), a 20% increase in price of soda was associated with a decrease of a 0.25 visits to a fast food restaurant per week. Conclusions Economic incentives may be an effective mechanism to address fast food intake in an age group at high risk for obesity. PMID:21852178

The recency ratio as predictor of early MCI.

PubMed

Bruno, Davide; Koscik, Rebecca L; Woodard, John L; Pomara, Nunzio; Johnson, Sterling C

2018-04-18

ABSTRACTObjectives:Individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) present poor immediate primacy recall accompanied by intact or exaggerated recency, which then tends to decline after a delay. Bruno et al. (Journal of Clinical and Experimental Neuropsychology, Vol. 38, 2016, pp. 967-973) have shown that higher ratio scores between immediate and delayed recency (i.e. the recency ratio; Rr) are associated with cognitive decline in high-functioning older individuals. We tested whether Rr predicted conversion to early mild cognitive impairment (early MCI) from a cognitively healthy baseline. Data were analyzed longitudinally with binomial regression. Baseline scores were used to predict conversion to early MCI after approximately nine years. Data were collected at the Wisconsin Registry of Alzheimer's Prevention, in Madison, Wisconsin. For the study, 427 individuals were included in the analysis; all participants were 50 years of age or older and cognitively intact at baseline, and were native English speakers. Memory data were collected using the Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test, and the early MCI diagnosis was obtained via consensus conference. Our results showed that higher Rr scores are correlated with greater risk of later early MCI diagnosis, and this association is independent of total recall performance. Rr is an emerging cognitive marker of cognitive decline.

Spanish language proficiency among providers and Latino clients' engagement in substance abuse treatment.

PubMed

Guerrero, Erick G; Khachikian, Tenie; Kim, Tina; Kong, Yinfei; Vega, William A

2013-12-01

Quality of care, such as provision of services in Spanish, is a common factor believed to improve treatment engagement among Spanish-speaking Latinos in health care. However, there is little evidence that Spanish language proficiency among providers increases treatment access and retention in publicly funded substance abuse treatment. We analyzed client and program data collected in 2010-2011 from publicly funded treatment programs in Los Angeles County, California. An analytic sample of 1903 Latino clients nested within 40 treatment programs located in minority communities was analyzed using multilevel negative binomial regressions on days to initiate and spent in treatment. As hypothesized, Spanish language proficiency was negatively associated with client wait time and positively associated with retention in treatment, after controlling for individual and program characteristics. The path analysis models showed that Spanish language proficiency played a mediating role between professional accreditation and client wait time and retention. These preliminary findings provide an evidentiary base for the role of providers' Spanish language proficiency and Latino engagement in treatment for a population at high risk of treatment dropout. Implications related to health care reform legislation, which seeks to enhance linguistically competent care, are discussed. © 2013.

Impact of Alcohol Tax Increase on Maryland College Students' Alcohol-Related Outcomes.

PubMed

Smart, Mieka J; Yearwood, Safiya S; Hwang, Seungyoung; Thorpe, Roland J; Furr-Holden, C Debra

2018-05-12

This study A) assessed whether levels of alcohol-related disciplinary actions on college campuses changed among MD college students after the 2011 Maryland (MD) state alcohol tax increase from 6% to 9%, and B) determined which school-level factors impacted the magnitude of changes detected. A quasi-experimental interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of panel data containing alcohol-related disciplinary actions on 33 MD college campuses in years 2006-2013. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine whether there was a statistically significant difference in counts of alcohol-related disciplinary actions comparing time before and after the tax increase. The ITS anaysis showed an insignificant relationship between alcohol-related disciplinary actions and tax implementation (β = -.27; p =.257) but indicated that alcohol-related disciplinary actions decreased significantly over the time under study (β = -.05; p =.022). Alcohol related disciplinary actions did decrease over time in the years of study, and this relationship was correlated with several school-level characteristics, including school price, school funding type, types of degrees awarded, and specialty. School price may serve as a proxy mediator or confounder of the effect of time on disciplinary actions.

Work hours and absenteeism among police officers.

PubMed

Fekedulegn, Desta; Burchfiel, Cecil M; Hartley, Tara A; Baughman, Penelope; Charles, Luenda E; Andrew, Michael E; Violanti, John M

2013-01-01

In this study, the cross-sectional association of paid work hours with episodes of work absence was examined in a cohort of police officers. Study subjects were participants from the Buffalo Cardio-Metabolic Occupational Police Stress (BCOPS) study examined between 2004 and 2009. Among 395 study participants with complete data, day-by-day work history records during the one-year period prior to date of examination were used to determine episodes of one-day and three day work absence. The Negative binomial regression analysis was used to examine rate ratios (RR) of work absence. Analyses were also stratified by gender. A one-hour increase in total work hours was associated with 5% reduction in rate of one-day work absence (RR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and with 8% reduction in rate of three-day work absence (RR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.89 - 0.95). The association of total work hours with episodes of one-day work absence was significant only in men while the association with episodes of three-day work absence was evident in men and women. In conclusion, in this cohort of police officers, work hours were negatively associated with both durations of work absence (one-day, > or = 3 consecutive days).

Effects of early dental office visits on dental caries experience.

PubMed

Beil, Heather; Rozier, R Gary; Preisser, John S; Stearns, Sally C; Lee, Jessica Y

2014-10-01

We determined the association between timing of a first dentist office visit before age 5 years and dental disease in kindergarten. We used North Carolina Medicaid claims (1999-2006) linked to state oral health surveillance data to compare caries experience for kindergarten students (2005-2006) who had a visit before age 60 months (n=11,394) to derive overall exposure effects from a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. We repeated the analysis separately for children who had preventive and tertiary visits. Children who had a visit at age 37 to 48 and 49 to 60 months had significantly less disease than children with a visit by age 24 months (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.81, 0.95; IRR=0.75; 95% CI=0.69, 0.82, respectively). Disease status did not differ between children who had a tertiary visit by age 24 months and other children. Medicaid-enrolled children in our study followed an urgent care type of utilization, and access to dental care was limited. Children at high risk for dental disease should be given priority for a preventive dental visit before age 3 years.

The Structure of Co-Occurring Bullying Experiences and Associations with Suicidal Behaviors in Korean Adolescents.

PubMed

Roh, Beop-Rae; Yoon, Yoewon; Kwon, Ahye; Oh, Seunga; Lee, Soyoung Irene; Ha, Kyunghee; Shin, Yun Mi; Song, Jungeun; Park, Eun Jin; Yoo, Heejung; Hong, Hyun Ju

2015-01-01

This study had two main goals: to examine the structure of co-occurring peer bullying experiences among adolescents in South Korea from the perspective of victims and to determine the effects of bullying on suicidal behavior, including suicidal ideation and suicide attempts, among adolescents. This study used data gathered from 4,410 treatment-seeking adolescents at their initial visits to 31 local mental health centers in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. The structure of peer bullying was examined using latent class analysis (LCA) to classify participants' relevant experiences. Then, a binomial logistic regression adjusted by propensity scores was conducted to identify relationships between experiences of being bullied and suicidal behaviors. The LCA of experiences with bullying revealed two distinct classes of bullying: physical and non-physical. Adolescents who experienced physical bullying were 3.05 times more likely to attempt suicide than those who were not bullied. Victims of (non-physical) cyber bullying were 2.94 times more likely to attempt suicide than were those who were not bullied. Both physical and non-physical bullying were associated with suicide attempts, with similar effect sizes. Schools and mental health professionals should be more attentive than they currently are to non-physical bullying.

The association between subclinical mastitis around calving and reproductive performance in grazing dairy cows.

PubMed

Villa-Arcila, N A; Sanchez, J; Ratto, M H; Rodriguez-Lecompte, J C; Duque-Madrid, P C; Sanchez-Arias, S; Ceballos-Marquez, A

2017-10-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of subclinical mastitis (SCM) on calving-to-first-service interval (CFS), calving-to-conception interval (CC), and on the number of services per conception (S/C) in grazing Holstein and Normande cows. Primiparous (n=43) and multiparous (n=165) cows were selected from five dairy herds. Two composite milk samples were aseptically collected from each cow at drying-off, and then every week during the first postpartum month. One sample was used for somatic cell count (SCC), and the other one for bacteriological analysis. Cows were followed up to 300 d after calving. Non-parametric and parametric survival models, and negative binomial regression were used to assess the association between SCM, evaluated by SCC and milk culture, and reproductive indices. Staphylococcus aureus, CNS, and Streptococcus uberis were the most frequent isolated pathogens. Subclinical mastitis in the first month of lactation was not associated with CFS; however, the CC interval was longer in cows with SCM compared to healthy cows, the former also had a higher number of S/C. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving detection of copy-number variation by simultaneous bias correction and read-depth segmentation.

PubMed

Szatkiewicz, Jin P; Wang, WeiBo; Sullivan, Patrick F; Wang, Wei; Sun, Wei

2013-02-01

Structural variation is an important class of genetic variation in mammals. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) technologies promise to revolutionize copy-number variation (CNV) detection but present substantial analytic challenges. Converging evidence suggests that multiple types of CNV-informative data (e.g. read-depth, read-pair, split-read) need be considered, and that sophisticated methods are needed for more accurate CNV detection. We observed that various sources of experimental biases in HTS confound read-depth estimation, and note that bias correction has not been adequately addressed by existing methods. We present a novel read-depth-based method, GENSENG, which uses a hidden Markov model and negative binomial regression framework to identify regions of discrete copy-number changes while simultaneously accounting for the effects of multiple confounders. Based on extensive calibration using multiple HTS data sets, we conclude that our method outperforms existing read-depth-based CNV detection algorithms. The concept of simultaneous bias correction and CNV detection can serve as a basis for combining read-depth with other types of information such as read-pair or split-read in a single analysis. A user-friendly and computationally efficient implementation of our method is freely available.

Bruxism in craniocervical dystonia: a prospective study.

PubMed

Borie, Laetitia; Langbour, Nicolas; Guehl, Dominique; Burbaud, Pierre; Ella, Bruno

2016-09-01

Bruxism pathophysiology remains unclear, and its occurrence has been poorly investigated in movement disorders. The aim of this study was to compare the frequency of bruxism in patients with craniocervical dystonia vs. normal controls and to determine its associated clinical features. This is a prospective-control study. A total of 114 dystonic subjects (45 facial dystonia, 69 cervical dystonia) and 182 controls were included. Bruxism was diagnosed using a hetero-questionnaire and a clinical examination performed by trained dentists. Occurrence of bruxism was compared between the different study populations. A binomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine which clinical features influenced bruxism occurrence in each population. The frequency of bruxism was significantly higher in the dystonic group than in normal controls but there was no difference between facial and cervical dystonia. It was also higher in women than in men. Bruxism features were similar between normal controls and dystonic patients except for a higher score of temporomandibular jaw pain in the dystonic group. The higher frequency of bruxism in dystonic patients suggests that bruxism is increased in patients with basal ganglia dysfunction but that its nature does not differ from that seen in bruxers from the normal population.

Topics in Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and its Monte Carlo Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tak, Hyung Suk

The first chapter addresses a Beta-Binomial-Logit model that is a Beta-Binomial conjugate hierarchical model with covariate information incorporated via a logistic regression. Various researchers in the literature have unknowingly used improper posterior distributions or have given incorrect statements about posterior propriety because checking posterior propriety can be challenging due to the complicated functional form of a Beta-Binomial-Logit model. We derive data-dependent necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior propriety within a class of hyper-prior distributions that encompass those used in previous studies. Frequency coverage properties of several hyper-prior distributions are also investigated to see when and whether Bayesian interval estimates of random effects meet their nominal confidence levels. The second chapter deals with a time delay estimation problem in astrophysics. When the gravitational field of an intervening galaxy between a quasar and the Earth is strong enough to split light into two or more images, the time delay is defined as the difference between their travel times. The time delay can be used to constrain cosmological parameters and can be inferred from the time series of brightness data of each image. To estimate the time delay, we construct a Gaussian hierarchical model based on a state-space representation for irregularly observed time series generated by a latent continuous-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our Bayesian approach jointly infers model parameters via a Gibbs sampler. We also introduce a profile likelihood of the time delay as an approximation of its marginal posterior distribution. The last chapter specifies a repelling-attracting Metropolis algorithm, a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method to explore multi-modal distributions in a simple and fast manner. This algorithm is essentially a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal that consists of a downhill move in density that aims to make local modes repelling, followed by an uphill move in density that aims to make local modes attracting. The downhill move is achieved via a reciprocal Metropolis ratio so that the algorithm prefers downward movement. The uphill move does the opposite using the standard Metropolis ratio which prefers upward movement. This down-up movement in density increases the probability of a proposed move to a different mode.

Enumerative and binomial sampling plans for citrus mealybug (Homoptera: pseudococcidae) in citrus groves.

PubMed

Martínez-Ferrer, María Teresa; Ripollés, José Luís; Garcia-Marí, Ferran

2006-06-01

The spatial distribution of the citrus mealybug, Planococcus citri (Risso) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae), was studied in citrus groves in northeastern Spain. Constant precision sampling plans were designed for all developmental stages of citrus mealybug under the fruit calyx, for late stages on fruit, and for females on trunks and main branches; more than 66, 286, and 101 data sets, respectively, were collected from nine commercial fields during 1992-1998. Dispersion parameters were determined using Taylor's power law, giving aggregated spatial patterns for citrus mealybug populations in three locations of the tree sampled. A significant relationship between the number of insects per organ and the percentage of occupied organs was established using either Wilson and Room's binomial model or Kono and Sugino's empirical formula. Constant precision (E = 0.25) sampling plans (i.e., enumerative plans) for estimating mean densities were developed using Green's equation and the two binomial models. For making management decisions, enumerative counts may be less labor-intensive than binomial sampling. Therefore, we recommend enumerative sampling plans for the use in an integrated pest management program in citrus. Required sample sizes for the range of population densities near current management thresholds, in the three plant locations calyx, fruit, and trunk were 50, 110-330, and 30, respectively. Binomial sampling, especially the empirical model, required a higher sample size to achieve equivalent levels of precision.

A semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model for analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Ye, Xin; Wang, Ke; Zou, Yajie; Lord, Dominique

2018-01-01

This paper develops a semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model to analyze motor vehicle crash frequency data collected from rural multilane highway segments in California, US. Motor vehicle crash frequency on rural highway is a topic of interest in the area of transportation safety due to higher driving speeds and the resultant severity level. Unlike the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model, the semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model can accommodate an unobserved heterogeneity following a highly flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) distribution. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the SNP distribution can well mimic a large family of distributions, including normal distributions, log-gamma distributions, bimodal and trimodal distributions. Empirical estimation results show that such flexibility offered by the SNP distribution can greatly improve model precision and the overall goodness-of-fit. The semi-nonparametric distribution can provide a better understanding of crash data structure through its ability to capture potential multimodality in the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. When estimated coefficients in empirical models are compared, SNP and NB models are found to have a substantially different coefficient for the dummy variable indicating the lane width. The SNP model with better statistical performance suggests that the NB model overestimates the effect of lane width on crash frequency reduction by 83.1%.

Differences in spousal influence on smoking cessation by gender and education among Japanese couples.

PubMed

Takagi, Daisuke; Kondo, Naoki; Takada, Misato; Hashimoto, Hideki

2014-11-19

Previous studies have reported that spousal non-smoking has a spillover effect on the partner's cessation. However, discussion is lacking on the factors modifying that association. We examined whether the spillover effect of spousal non-smoking was associated with the couple's educational attainment. We used paired marital data from the Japanese Study on Stratification, Health, Income, and Neighborhood (J-SHINE), which targeted residents aged 25-50 years in four Japanese municipalities. We selected a spouse smoker at the time of marriage (target respondent), and set his/her smoking status change (continued or quit smoking after marriage) as an outcome, regressed on the counterpart's smoking status (continued smoking or non-smoking) and combinations of each couple's educational attainment as explanatory variables using log-binomial regression models (n =1001 targets; 708 men and 293 women). Regression results showed that a counterpart who previously quit smoking or was a never-smoker was associated with the target male spouse's subsequent cessation. However, for women, the association between husband's non-smoking and their own cessation was significant only for couples in which both spouses were highly educated. Our findings suggest that a spouse's smoking status is important for smoking cessation interventions in men. For women, however, a couple's combined educational attainment may matter in the interventions.

Evaluation of the Use of Zero-Augmented Regression Techniques to Model Incidence of Campylobacter Infections in FoodNet.

PubMed

Tremblay, Marlène; Crim, Stacy M; Cole, Dana J; Hoekstra, Robert M; Henao, Olga L; Döpfer, Dörte

2017-10-01

The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) is currently using a negative binomial (NB) regression model to estimate temporal changes in the incidence of Campylobacter infection. FoodNet active surveillance in 483 counties collected data on 40,212 Campylobacter cases between years 2004 and 2011. We explored models that disaggregated these data to allow us to account for demographic, geographic, and seasonal factors when examining changes in incidence of Campylobacter infection. We hypothesized that modeling structural zeros and including demographic variables would increase the fit of FoodNet's Campylobacter incidence regression models. Five different models were compared: NB without demographic covariates, NB with demographic covariates, hurdle NB with covariates in the count component only, hurdle NB with covariates in both zero and count components, and zero-inflated NB with covariates in the count component only. Of the models evaluated, the nonzero-augmented NB model with demographic variables provided the best fit. Results suggest that even though zero inflation was not present at this level, individualizing the level of aggregation and using different model structures and predictors per site might be required to correctly distinguish between structural and observational zeros and account for risk factors that vary geographically.

Estimating the Parameters of the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.

1979-01-01

For some situations the beta-binomial distribution might be used to describe the marginal distribution of test scores for a particular population of examinees. Several different methods of approximating the maximum likelihood estimate were investigated, and it was found that the Newton-Raphson method should be used when it yields admissable…

Loneliness as a public health issue: the impact of loneliness on health care utilization among older adults.

PubMed

Gerst-Emerson, Kerstin; Jayawardhana, Jayani

2015-05-01

We aimed to determine whether loneliness is associated with higher health care utilization among older adults in the United States. We used panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (2008 and 2012) to examine the long-term impact of loneliness on health care use. The sample was limited to community-dwelling persons in the United States aged 60 years and older. We used negative binomial regression models to determine the impact of loneliness on physician visits and hospitalizations. Under 2 definitions of loneliness, we found that a sizable proportion of those aged 60 years and older in the United States reported loneliness. Regression results showed that chronic loneliness (those lonely both in 2008 and 4 years later) was significantly and positively associated with physician visits (β = 0.075, SE = 0.034). Loneliness was not significantly associated with hospitalizations. Loneliness is a significant public health concern among elders. In addition to easing a potential source of suffering, the identification and targeting of interventions for lonely elders may significantly decrease physician visits and health care costs.

Contributory factors to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Wong, S C; Sze, N N; Li, Y C

2007-11-01

Efficient geometric design and signal timing not only improve operational performance at signalized intersections by expanding capacity and reducing traffic delays, but also result in an appreciable reduction in traffic conflicts, and thus better road safety. Information on the incidence of crashes, traffic flow, geometric design, road environment, and traffic control at 262 signalized intersections in Hong Kong during 2002 and 2003 are incorporated into a crash prediction model. Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are used to quantify the influence of possible contributory factors on the incidence of killed and severe injury (KSI) crashes and slight injury crashes, respectively, while possible interventions by traffic flow are controlled. The results for the incidence of slight injury crashes reveal that the road environment, degree of curvature, and presence of tram stops are significant factors, and that traffic volume has a diminishing effect on the crash risk. The presence of tram stops, number of pedestrian streams, road environment, proportion of commercial vehicles, average lane width, and degree of curvature increase the risk of KSI crashes, but the effect of traffic volume is negligible.

Statistical guides to estimating the number of undiscovered mineral deposits: an example with porphyry copper deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Donald A.; Menzie, W.D.; Cheng, Qiuming; Bonham-Carter, G. F.

2005-01-01

Estimating numbers of undiscovered mineral deposits is a fundamental part of assessing mineral resources. Some statistical tools can act as guides to low variance, unbiased estimates of the number of deposits. The primary guide is that the estimates must be consistent with the grade and tonnage models. Another statistical guide is the deposit density (i.e., the number of deposits per unit area of permissive rock in well-explored control areas). Preliminary estimates and confidence limits of the number of undiscovered deposits in a tract of given area may be calculated using linear regression and refined using frequency distributions with appropriate parameters. A Poisson distribution leads to estimates having lower relative variances than the regression estimates and implies a random distribution of deposits. Coefficients of variation are used to compare uncertainties of negative binomial, Poisson, or MARK3 empirical distributions that have the same expected number of deposits as the deposit density. Statistical guides presented here allow simple yet robust estimation of the number of undiscovered deposits in permissive terranes. 

Early-life mortality risks in opposite-sex and same-sex twins: a Danish cohort study of the twin testosterone transfer hypothesis.

PubMed

Ahrenfeldt, Linda Juel; Larsen, Lisbeth Aagaard; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Skytthe, Axel; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Möller, Sören; Christensen, Kaare

2017-02-01

To investigate the twin testosterone transfer (TTT) hypothesis by comparing early-life mortality risks of opposite-sex (OS) and same-sex (SS) twins during the first 15 years of life. We performed a population-based cohort study to compare mortality in OS and SS twins. We included 68,629 live-born Danish twins from 1973 to 2009 identified through the Danish Twin Registry and performed piecewise stratified Cox regression and log-binomial regression. Among 1933 deaths, we found significantly higher mortality for twin boys than for twin girls. For both sexes, OS twins had lower mortality than SS twins; the difference persisted for the first year of life for boys and for the first week of life for girls. Although the mortality risk for OS boys was in the expected direction according to the TTT hypothesis, the results for OS girls pointed in the opposite direction, providing no clear evidence for the TTT hypothesis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Children at risk: A comparison of child pedestrian traffic collisions in Santiago, Chile, and Seoul, South Korea.

PubMed

Blazquez, Carola; Lee, Jae Seung; Zegras, Christopher

2016-01-01

We examine and compare pedestrian-vehicle collisions and injury outcomes involving school-age children between 5 and 18 years of age in the capital cities of Santiago, Chile, and Seoul, South Korea. We conduct descriptive analysis of the child pedestrian-vehicle collision (P-VC) data (904 collisions for Santiago and 3,505 for Seoul) reported by the police between 2010 and 2011. We also statistically analyze factors associated with child P-VCs, by both incident severity and age group, using 3 regression models: negative binomial, probit, and spatial lag models. Descriptive statistics suggest that child pedestrians in Seoul have a higher risk of being involved in traffic crashes than their counterparts in Santiago. However, in Seoul a greater proportion of children are unharmed as a result of these incidents, whereas more child pedestrians are killed in Santiago. Younger children in Seoul suffer more injuries from P-VCs than in Santiago. The majority of P-VCs in both cities tend to occur in the afternoon and evening, at intersections in Santiago and at midblock locations in Seoul. Our model results suggest that the resident population of children is positively associated with P-VCs in both cities, and school concentrations apparently increase P-VC risk among older children in Santiago. Bus stops are associated with higher P-VCs in Seoul, and subway stations relate to higher P-VCs among older children in Santiago. Zone-level land use mix was negatively related to child P-VCs in Seoul but not in Santiago. Arterial roads are associated with fewer P-VCs, especially for younger children in both cities. A share of collector roads is associated with increased P-VCs in Seoul but fewer P-VCs in Santiago. Hilliness is related to fewer P-VCs in both cities. Differences in these model results for Santiago and Seoul warrant additional analysis, as do the differences in results across model type (negative binomial versus spatial lag models). To reduce child P-VCs, this study suggests the need to assess subway station and bus stop area conditions in Santiago and Seoul, respectively; areas with high density of schools in Santiago; areas with greater concentrations of children in both cities; and collector roads in Seoul.

Transnational Research Networks in Chinese Scientific Production. An Investigation on Health-Industry Related Sectors.

PubMed

Rubini, Lauretta; Pollio, Chiara; Di Tommaso, Marco R

2017-08-29

Transnational research networks (TRN) are becoming increasingly complex. Such complexity may have both positive and negative effects on the quality of research. Our work studies the evolution over time of Chinese TRN and the role of complexity on the quality of Chinese research, given the leading role this country has recently acquired in international science. We focus on the fields of geriatrics and gerontology. We build an original dataset of all scientific publications of China in these areas in 2009, 2012 and 2015, starting from the ISI Web of Knowledge (ISI WoK) database. Using Social Network Analysis (SNA), we analyze the change in scientific network structure across time. Second, we design indices to control for the different aspects of networks complexity (number of authors, country heterogeneity and institutional heterogeneity) and we perform negative binomial regressions to identify the main determinants of research quality. Our analysis shows that research networks in the field of geriatrics and gerontology have gradually become wider in terms of countries and have become more balanced. Furthermore, our results identify that different forms of complexity have different impacts on quality, including a reciprocal moderating effect. In particular, according to our analysis, research quality benefits from complex research networks both in terms of countries and of types of institutions involved, but that such networks should be "compact" in terms of number of authors. Eventually, we suggest that complexity should be carefully taken into account when designing policies aimed at enhancing the quality of research.

Anti-polymer antibodies are correlated with pain and fatigue severity in patients with fibromyalgia syndrome.

PubMed

Sarzi-Puttini, Piercarlo; Atzeni, Fabiola; Di Franco, Manuela; Lama, Nicola; Batticciotto, Alberto; Iannuccelli, Cristina; Dell'Acqua, Donata; de Portu, Simona; Riccieri, Valeria; Carrabba, Mario; Buskila, Dan; Doria, Andrea; Valesini, Guido

2008-02-01

To investigate the prevalence of antipolymer antibody (APA) in patients with fibromyalgia (FM) and to examine its association with FM severity symptoms. The study population consisted of 79 FM patients and 75 controls: 32 with psoriatic arthritis and 43 with rheumatoid arthritis APA levels were indirectly assayed using a commercial ELISA kit from Corgenix (Westmister, Colorado, USA). Optical density (OD) values were recorded on duplicates of each of the reference and patient samples. Among clinical variables we investigated pain, measured according to visual analog scales (VAS: 0-100), fatigue, stiffness, anxiety, depression, all measured by VAS (0-100), and health status measured by Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ). Sixteen of the 79 FM patients (20.3%) and 12/78 controls (15.4%) were positive for APAs (P = 0.536). Following ROC analysis, area under curve (AUC) was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.58). Focusing on FM patients, we observed a correlation between APA titre and pain (tau: - 0.221; P = 0.020) and fatigue (tau: - 0.205; P = 0.032) at univariate analysis. Binomial regression analysis, controlling for clinical and demographic variables, showed that pain (PPR: 0.923; P = 0.007) and fatigue (PPR: 0.948; P = 0.024) were significantly associated with APA test sensitivity. APA test exhibited a low sensitivity in FM patients and it did not distinguish this group of patients from the controls enrolled in this study. Interestingly, positive APA test prevalence increased with less severe pain or fatigue.

The political ecology of disaster: an analysis of factors influencing U.S. tornado fatalities and injuries, 1998-2000.

PubMed

Donner, William R

2007-08-01

This study examines casualties from tornadoes in the United States between the years 1998 and 2000. A political model of human ecology (POET) was used to explore how the environment, technology, and social inequality influence rates of fatalities and injuries in two models. Data were drawn from four sources: John Hart's Severe Plot v2.0, National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Verification data, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watch data, and tract-level census data. Negative binomial regression was used to analyze the causes of tornado fatalities and injuries. Independent variables (following POET) are classified in the following manner: population, organization, environment, and technology. Rural population, population density, and household size correspond to population; racial minorities and deprivation represent social organization; tornado area represents environment; and tornado watches and warnings, as well as mobile homes, correspond to technology. Findings suggest a strong relationship between the size of a tornado path and both fatalities and injuries, whereas other measures related to technology, population, and organization produce significant yet mixed results. Census tracts having larger populations of rural residents was, of the nonenvironmental factors, the most conclusive regarding its effects across the two models. The outcomes of analysis, although not entirely supportive of the model presented in this study, suggest to some degree that demographic and social factors play a role in vulnerability to tornadoes.

Homicides among women in the different Brazilian regions in the last 35 years: an analysis of age-period-birth cohort effects.

PubMed

Souza, Edinilsa Ramos de; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Ribeiro, Adalgisa Peixoto; Santos, Juliano Dos; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Borges, Laiane Felix; Oliveira, Lannuzya Veríssimo E; Simões, Taynãna César

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to estimate the effects of age-period-birth cohort (APC) on female homicides. This is an ecological study which analyzed the violence-related death records of women aged 10 years and older, in the Brazilian geographic regions, between 1980 and 2014. Data on mortality were extracted from the Mortality Information System. The trend analysis was conducted using negative binomial regression and APC effects were analyzed using estimable functions. The average mortality rate for the period was 5.13 deaths per 100,000 women, with the highest rates observed in the Central-West (7.98 deaths), followed by the Southeast (4.78 deaths), North (4.77 deaths), Northeast (4.05 deaths) and South (3.82 deaths) regions. All regions presented a decrease in the risk of death in the period from 2010 to 2014, except for the Northeast region (RR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10). There was a progressive increase in the homicide risk for women born from 1955 to 1959 in all Brazilian regions. Younger women are at higher risk of dying from homicides in all Brazilian geographic regions. The upward trend of homicide mortality rates according to birth cohort was significant and the highest risk was observed in women born between 2000 and 2004.

Social determinants of leprosy in a hyperendemic State in North Brazil.

PubMed

Monteiro, Lorena Dias; Mota, Rosa Maria Salani; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg

2017-07-20

To identify the socioeconomic, demographic, operational, and health service-related factors associated with the occurrence of leprosy in a hyperendemic State in North Brazil. This is an ecological study based on secondary data from the Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação in municipalities of the State of Tocantins from 2001 to 2012. Units of analysis were the 139 municipalities of the State. Negative binomial log linear regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios. In bivariate analysis, the incidence rate ratios were significantly higher for municipalities with higher income ratio of the poorest 20.0% (1.47; 95%CI 1.19-1.81) and better Municipal Human Development Index (1.53; 95%CI 1.14-2.06). In multivariate analysis, the incidence rate ratios were significantly higher in municipalities with higher proportion of immigrants (1.31; 95%CI 1.11-1.55) and higher proportion of households with waste collection (1.37; 95%CI 1.11-1.69). There was a significant reduction in the incidence rate ratio with increased coverage of the Bolsa Família Program (0.98; 95%CI 0.96-0.99). Control programs need to focus on activities in municipalities of greater social vulnerability with intersectoral investment for the improvement of the living conditions of the population. Identificar fatores socioeconômicos, demográficos, operacionais e de serviços de saúde associados à ocorrência da hanseníase em um estado hiperendêmico do norte do Brasil. Estudo ecológico com dados secundários do Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação em municípios do estado do Tocantins de 2001 a 2012. As unidades de análise foram os 139 municípios do estado. Modelos de regressão log linear binomial negativa foram utilizados para estimar as razões de taxas de incidência. Na análise bivariada, a razão de taxa de incidência foi significativamente maior para os municípios com maior razão de renda dos 20,0% mais pobres (1,47; IC95% 1,19-1,81) e melhor Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (1,53; IC95% 1,14-2,06). Na múltipla, a razão de taxa de incidência foi significativamente superior em municípios com maior concentração de imigrantes (1,31; IC95% 1,11-1,55) e proporção de domicílios com coleta de lixo (1,37; IC95% 1,11-1,69). Houve redução significativa da razão de taxa de incidência com o aumento da cobertura do programa bolsa família (0,98; IC95% 0,96-0,99). Os programas de controle precisam focar as atividades em municípios de maior vulnerabilidade social com investimentos intersetoriais para a melhoria das condições de vida da população.

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

PubMed Central

Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sbina; Benkő, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiāng, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M.; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R.; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; PaWeska, Janusz T.; Peters, Clarence J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli R.; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S.; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark D.; Stone, David M.; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E.; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E.; Zerbini, F. Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

2017-01-01

Abstract Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. PMID:27798405

Analysis of dengue fever risk using geostatistics model in bone regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amran, Stang, Mallongi, Anwar

2017-03-01

This research aim is to analysis of dengue fever risk based on Geostatistics model in Bone Regency. Risk levels of dengue fever are denoted by parameter of Binomial distribution. Effect of temperature, rainfalls, elevation, and larvae abundance are investigated through Geostatistics model. Bayesian hierarchical method is used in estimation process. Using dengue fever data in eleven locations this research shows that temperature and rainfall have significant effect of dengue fever risk in Bone regency.

Experiences of Racism and Breastfeeding Initiation and Duration Among First-Time Mothers of the Black Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Griswold, Michele K; Crawford, Sybil L; Perry, Donna J; Person, Sharina D; Rosenberg, Lynn; Cozier, Yvette C; Palmer, Julie R

2018-02-12

Breastfeeding rates are lower for black women in the USA compared with other groups. Breastfeeding and lactation are sensitive time points in the life course, centering breastfeeding as a health equity issue. In the USA, experiences of racism have been linked to poor health outcomes but racism relative to breastfeeding has not been extensively investigated. This study aims to investigate the association between experiences of racism, neighborhood segregation, and nativity with breastfeeding initiation and duration. This is a prospective secondary analysis of the Black Women's Health Study, based on data collected from 1995 through 2005. Daily and institutional (job, housing, police) racism, nativity, and neighborhood segregation in relation to breastfeeding were examined. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using binomial logistic regression for the initiation outcomes (N = 2705) and multinomial logistic regression for the duration outcomes (N = 2172). Racism in the job setting was associated with lower odds of breastfeeding duration at 3-5 months. Racism with the police was associated with higher odds of breastfeeding initiation and duration at 3-5 and 6 months. Being born in the USA or having a parent born in the USA predicted lower odds of breastfeeding initiation and duration. Living in a segregated neighborhood (primarily black residents) as a child was associated with decreased breastfeeding initiation and duration relative to growing up in a predominantly white neighborhood. Experiences of institutionalized racism influenced breastfeeding initiation and duration. Structural-level interventions are critical to close the gap of racial inequity in breastfeeding rates in the USA.

High temperature effects on out-patient visits and hospital admissions in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

PubMed

Pudpong, Nareerut; Hajat, Shakoor

2011-11-15

This study investigated the short-term effects of temperature on out-patient visits and hospital admissions in Chiang Mai, Thailand. While mortality outcomes in the literature have been reported, there is less evidence of morbidity effects with very few studies conducted in developing countries with subtropical or tropical climate. Time-series regression analysis was employed using generalized negative binomial regression to model the short-term relationships between temperature and morbidity after controlling for seasonal patterns and other potential confounders. Lag effects up to 13 days and effect modification by age (0-14 years, 15-64 years, ≥65 years) were examined. Temperature effects with wide confidence intervals were found, with an increase in diabetic visits of 26.3% (95% CI: 7.1%-49.0%), and circulatory visits of 19.2% (95% CI: 7.0%-32.8%) per 1 °C increase in temperature above an identified threshold of 29 °C. Additionally, there was a rise of both visits (3.7% increase, 95% CI: 1.5%-5.9%) and admissions (5.8% increase, 95% CI: 2.3%-9.3%) due to intestinal infectious disease in association with each 1 °C increase across the whole temperature range. The effects of temperature were stronger in the elderly though not statistically significant. Daily morbidity in Chiang Mai was positively associated with temperature with a lag effect of up to 2 weeks, which was longer than lag effects previously reported. Public health preparedness and interventions should be considered to minimise possible increased hospital visits and admissions during hot weather. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teaching surgery takes time: the impact of surgical education on time in the operating room

PubMed Central

Vinden, Christopher; Malthaner, Richard; McGee, Jacob; McClure, J. Andrew; Winick-Ng, Jennifer; Liu, Kuan; Nash, Danielle M.; Welk, Blayne; Dubois, Luc

2016-01-01

Background It is generally accepted that surgical training is associated with increased surgical duration. The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude of this increase for common surgical procedures by comparing surgery duration in teaching and nonteaching hospitals. Methods This retrospective population-based cohort study included all adult residents of Ontario, Canada, who underwent 1 of 14 surgical procedures between 2002 and 2012. We used several linked administrative databases to identify the study cohort in addition to patient-, surgeon- and procedure-related variables. We determined surgery duration using anesthesiology billing records. Negative binomial regression was used to model the association between teaching versus nonteaching hospital status and surgery duration. Results Of the 713 573 surgical cases included in this study, 20.8% were performed in a teaching hospital. For each procedure, the mean surgery duration was significantly longer for teaching hospitals, with differences ranging from 5 to 62 minutes across individual procedures in unadjusted analyses (all p < 0.001). In regression analysis, procedures performed in teaching hospitals were associated with an overall 22% (95% confidence interval 20%–24%) increase in surgery duration, adjusting for patient-, surgeon- and procedure-related variables as well as the clustering of patients within surgeons and hospitals. Conclusion Our results show that a wide range of surgical procedures require significantly more time to perform in teaching than nonteaching hospitals. Given the magnitude of this difference, the impact of surgical training on health care costs and clinical outcomes should be a priority for future studies. PMID:27007088

Emotional Support, Negative Interaction and DSM IV Lifetime Disorders among Older African Americans: Findings from the National Survey of American Life (NSAL)

PubMed Central

Lincoln, Karen D.; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Bullard, Kai McKeever; Chatters, Linda M.; Himle, Joseph A.; Woodward, Amanda Toler; Jackson, James S.

2010-01-01

Objectives Both emotional support and negative interaction with family members have been linked to mental health. However, few studies have examined the associations between emotional support and negative interaction and psychiatric disorders in late life. This study investigated the relationship between emotional support and negative interaction on lifetime prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders among older African Americans. Design The analyses utilized the National Survey of American Life. Methods Logistic regression and negative binomial regression analyses were used to examine the effect of emotional support and negative interaction with family members on the prevalence of lifetime DSM-IV mood and anxiety disorders. Participants Data from 786 African Americans aged 55 years and older were used. Measurement The DSM-IV World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI) was used to assess mental disorders. Three dependent variables were investigated: the prevalence of lifetime mood disorders, the prevalence of lifetime anxiety disorders, and the total number of lifetime mood and anxiety disorders. Results Multivariate analysis found that emotional support was not associated with any of the three dependent variables. Negative interaction was significantly and positively associated with the odds of having a lifetime mood disorder, a lifetime anxiety disorder and the number of lifetime mood and anxiety disorders. Conclusions This is the first study to investigate the relationship between emotional support, negative interaction with family members and psychiatric disorders among older African Americans. Negative interaction was a risk factor for mood and anxiety disorders among older African Americans, whereas emotional support was not significant. PMID:20157904

Health care resource use and costs associated with possible side effects of high oral corticosteroid use in asthma: a claims-based analysis.

PubMed

Luskin, Allan T; Antonova, Evgeniya N; Broder, Michael S; Chang, Eunice Y; Omachi, Theodore A; Ledford, Dennis K

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of possible oral corticosteroid (OCS)-related side effects and health care resource use and costs in patients with asthma. This was a cross-sectional, matched-cohort, retrospective study using a commercial claims database. Adults with asthma diagnosis codes and evidence of asthma medication use were studied. Patients with high OCS use (≥30 days of OCS annually) were divided into those who did versus those who did not experience OCS-related possible side effects. Their health care resource use and costs were compared using linear regression or negative binomial regression models, adjusting for age, sex, geographic region, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease status. After adjustment, high OCS users with possible side effects were more likely to have office visits (23.0 vs 19.6; P <0.001) and hospitalizations (0.44 vs 0.22; P <0.001) than those without possible side effects. Emergency department visits were similar between the groups. High OCS users with possible side effects had higher adjusted total annual mean health care costs ($25,168) than those without such side effects ($21,882; P =0.009). Among high OCS users, patients with possible OCS-related side effects are more likely to use health care services than those without such side effects. Although OCS may help control asthma and manage exacerbations, OCS side effects may result in additional health care resource use and costs, highlighting the need for OCS-sparing asthma therapies.

The impact of texting bans on motor vehicle crash-related hospitalizations.

PubMed

Ferdinand, Alva O; Menachemi, Nir; Blackburn, Justin L; Sen, Bisakha; Nelson, Leonard; Morrisey, Michael

2015-05-01

We used a panel design and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 19 states between 2003 and 2010 to examine the impact of texting bans on crash-related hospitalizations. We conducted conditional negative binomial regressions with state, year, and month fixed effects to examine changes in crash-related hospitalizations in states after the enactment of a texting ban relative to those in states without such bans. Results indicate that texting bans were associated with a 7% reduction in crash-related hospitalizations among all age groups. Texting bans were significantly associated with reductions in hospitalizations among those aged 22 to 64 years and those aged 65 years or older. Marginal reductions were seen among adolescents. States that have not passed strict texting bans should consider doing so.

Linking crime guns: the impact of ballistics imaging technology on the productivity of the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit.

PubMed

Braga, Anthony A; Pierce, Glenn L

2004-07-01

Ballistics imaging technology has received national attention as a potent tool for moving the law enforcement response to violent gun criminals forward by linking multiple crime scenes to one firearm. This study examines the impact of ballistics imaging technology on the productivity of the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit. Using negative binomial regression models to analyze times series data on ballistics matches, we find that ballistics imaging technology was associated with a more than sixfold increase in the monthly number of ballistics matches made by the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit. Cost-effectiveness estimates and qualitative evidence also suggest that ballistics imaging technology allows law enforcement agencies to make hits that would not have been possible using traditional ballistics methods.

Unmarried Mothers’ Postnatal School Enrollment: The Role and Intersection of Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics

PubMed Central

Radey, Melissa

2017-01-01

Drawing from a theoretical model of educational decisions and intersectionality theory, this study examined demographic, socioeconomic, and public assistance characteristics that influence unmarried mothers’ postnatal enrollment. Using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS), binomial and multinomial regression techniques were used to examine unmarried mothers’ enrollment in their child’s first nine years. Results showed unmarried mothers’ educational commitment coupled with the influence of race and class indicate that they need additional opportunities to optimize their educations and job opportunities. Targeting outreach and enrollment assistance to underrepresented groups can reduce social-origin inequalities. Important directions for future research include understanding unmarried mothers’ rationale for school enrollment and considering how race and class work in combination to support or deter enrollment. PMID:29151656

Civic communities and urban violence.

PubMed

Doucet, Jessica M; Lee, Matthew R

2015-07-01

Civic communities have a spirit of entrepreneurialism, a locally invested population and an institutional structure fostering civic engagement. Prior research, mainly confined to studying rural communities and fairly large geographic areas, has demonstrated that civic communities have lower rates of violence. The current study analyzes the associations between the components of civic communities and homicide rates for New Orleans neighborhoods (census tracts) in the years following Hurricane Katrina. Results from negative binomial regression models adjusting for spatial autocorrelation reveal that community homicide rates are lower where an entrepreneurial business climate is more pronounced and where there is more local investment. Additionally, an interaction between the availability of civic institutions and resource disadvantage reveals that the protective effects of civic institutions are only evident in disadvantaged communities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infant Mortality and Income in 4 World Cities: New York, London, Paris, and Tokyo

PubMed Central

Rodwin, Victor G.; Neuberg, Leland G.

2005-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the association between average income or deprivation and infant mortality rate across neighborhoods of 4 world cities. Methods. Using a maximum likelihood negative binomial regression model that controls for births, we analyzed data for 1988–1992 and 1993–1997. Results. In Manhattan, for both periods, we found an association (.05% significance level) between income and infant mortality. In Tokyo, for both periods, and in Paris and London for period 1, we found none (5% significance level). For period 2, the association just missed statistical significance for Paris, whereas for London it was significant (5% level). Conclusions. In stark contrast to Tokyo, Paris, and London, the association of income and infant mortality rate was strongly evident in Manhattan. PMID:15623865

The Impact of Texting Bans on Motor Vehicle Crash–Related Hospitalizations

PubMed Central

Menachemi, Nir; Blackburn, Justin L.; Sen, Bisakha; Nelson, Leonard; Morrisey, Michael

2015-01-01

We used a panel design and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 19 states between 2003 and 2010 to examine the impact of texting bans on crash-related hospitalizations. We conducted conditional negative binomial regressions with state, year, and month fixed effects to examine changes in crash-related hospitalizations in states after the enactment of a texting ban relative to those in states without such bans. Results indicate that texting bans were associated with a 7% reduction in crash-related hospitalizations among all age groups. Texting bans were significantly associated with reductions in hospitalizations among those aged 22 to 64 years and those aged 65 years or older. Marginal reductions were seen among adolescents. States that have not passed strict texting bans should consider doing so. PMID:25790409

Willingness to pay for non angler recreation at the lower Snake River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKean, J.R.; Johnson, D.; Taylor, R.G.; Johnson, Richard L.

2005-01-01

This study applied the travel cost method to estimate demand for non angler recreation at the impounded Snake River in eastern Washington. Net value per person per recreation trip is estimated for the full non angler sample and separately for camping, boating, water-skiing, and swimming/picnicking. Certain recreation activities would be reduced or eliminated and new activities would be added if the dams were breached to protect endangered salmon and steelhead. The effect of breaching on non angling benefits was found by subtracting our benefits estimate from the projected non angling benefits with breaching. Major issues in demand model specification and definition of the price variables are discussed. The estimation method selected was truncated negative binomial regression with adjustment for self selection bias.

Binomial Coefficients Modulo a Prime--A Visualization Approach to Undergraduate Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bardzell, Michael; Poimenidou, Eirini

2011-01-01

In this article we present, as a case study, results of undergraduate research involving binomial coefficients modulo a prime "p." We will discuss how undergraduates were involved in the project, even with a minimal mathematical background beforehand. There are two main avenues of exploration described to discover these binomial…

Using the β-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

Treesearch

S.J. Zarnoch; R.L. Anderson; R.M. Sheffield

1995-01-01

The β-binomial distribution is suggested as a model for describing and analyzing the dichotomous data obtained from programs monitoring the health of forests in the United States. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is given as well as asymptotic likelihood ratio tests. The procedure is illustrated with data on dogwood anthracnose infection (caused...

Integer Solutions of Binomial Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

A good formula is like a good story, rich in description, powerful in communication, and eye-opening to readers. The formula presented in this article for determining the coefficients of the binomial expansion of (x + y)n is one such "good read." The beauty of this formula is in its simplicity--both describing a quantitative situation…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Discrimination of numerical proportions: A comparison of binomial and Gaussian models.

PubMed

Raidvee, Aire; Lember, Jüri; Allik, Jüri

2017-01-01

Observers discriminated the numerical proportion of two sets of elements (N = 9, 13, 33, and 65) that differed either by color or orientation. According to the standard Thurstonian approach, the accuracy of proportion discrimination is determined by irreducible noise in the nervous system that stochastically transforms the number of presented visual elements onto a continuum of psychological states representing numerosity. As an alternative to this customary approach, we propose a Thurstonian-binomial model, which assumes discrete perceptual states, each of which is associated with a certain visual element. It is shown that the probability β with which each visual element can be noticed and registered by the perceptual system can explain data of numerical proportion discrimination at least as well as the continuous Thurstonian-Gaussian model, and better, if the greater parsimony of the Thurstonian-binomial model is taken into account using AIC model selection. We conclude that Gaussian and binomial models represent two different fundamental principles-internal noise vs. using only a fraction of available information-which are both plausible descriptions of visual perception.

Statistical Approaches Used to Assess the Equity of Access to Food Outlets: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Lamb, Karen E.; Thornton, Lukar E.; Cerin, Ester; Ball, Kylie

2015-01-01

Background Inequalities in eating behaviours are often linked to the types of food retailers accessible in neighbourhood environments. Numerous studies have aimed to identify if access to healthy and unhealthy food retailers is socioeconomically patterned across neighbourhoods, and thus a potential risk factor for dietary inequalities. Existing reviews have examined differences between methodologies, particularly focussing on neighbourhood and food outlet access measure definitions. However, no review has informatively discussed the suitability of the statistical methodologies employed; a key issue determining the validity of study findings. Our aim was to examine the suitability of statistical approaches adopted in these analyses. Methods Searches were conducted for articles published from 2000–2014. Eligible studies included objective measures of the neighbourhood food environment and neighbourhood-level socio-economic status, with a statistical analysis of the association between food outlet access and socio-economic status. Results Fifty-four papers were included. Outlet accessibility was typically defined as the distance to the nearest outlet from the neighbourhood centroid, or as the number of food outlets within a neighbourhood (or buffer). To assess if these measures were linked to neighbourhood disadvantage, common statistical methods included ANOVA, correlation, and Poisson or negative binomial regression. Although all studies involved spatial data, few considered spatial analysis techniques or spatial autocorrelation. Conclusions With advances in GIS software, sophisticated measures of neighbourhood outlet accessibility can be considered. However, approaches to statistical analysis often appear less sophisticated. Care should be taken to consider assumptions underlying the analysis and the possibility of spatially correlated residuals which could affect the results. PMID:29546115

Statistical Models for the Analysis of Zero-Inflated Pain Intensity Numeric Rating Scale Data.

PubMed

Goulet, Joseph L; Buta, Eugenia; Bathulapalli, Harini; Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Brandt, Cynthia A

2017-03-01

Pain intensity is often measured in clinical and research settings using the 0 to 10 numeric rating scale (NRS). NRS scores are recorded as discrete values, and in some samples they may display a high proportion of zeroes and a right-skewed distribution. Despite this, statistical methods for normally distributed data are frequently used in the analysis of NRS data. We present results from an observational cross-sectional study examining the association of NRS scores with patient characteristics using data collected from a large cohort of 18,935 veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs care diagnosed with a potentially painful musculoskeletal disorder. The mean (variance) NRS pain was 3.0 (7.5), and 34% of patients reported no pain (NRS = 0). We compared the following statistical models for analyzing NRS scores: linear regression, generalized linear models (Poisson and negative binomial), zero-inflated and hurdle models for data with an excess of zeroes, and a cumulative logit model for ordinal data. We examined model fit, interpretability of results, and whether conclusions about the predictor effects changed across models. In this study, models that accommodate zero inflation provided a better fit than the other models. These models should be considered for the analysis of NRS data with a large proportion of zeroes. We examined and analyzed pain data from a large cohort of veterans with musculoskeletal disorders. We found that many reported no current pain on the NRS on the diagnosis date. We present several alternative statistical methods for the analysis of pain intensity data with a large proportion of zeroes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Under-reporting of road traffic mortality in developing countries: application of a capture-recapture statistical model to refine mortality estimates.

PubMed

Samuel, Jonathan C; Sankhulani, Edward; Qureshi, Javeria S; Baloyi, Paul; Thupi, Charles; Lee, Clara N; Miller, William C; Cairns, Bruce A; Charles, Anthony G

2012-01-01

Road traffic injuries are a major cause of preventable death in sub-Saharan Africa. Accurate epidemiologic data are scarce and under-reporting from primary data sources is common. Our objectives were to estimate the incidence of road traffic deaths in Malawi using capture-recapture statistical analysis and determine what future efforts will best improve upon this estimate. Our capture-recapture model combined primary data from both police and hospital-based registries over a one year period (July 2008 to June 2009). The mortality incidences from the primary data sources were 0.075 and 0.051 deaths/1000 person-years, respectively. Using capture-recapture analysis, the combined incidence of road traffic deaths ranged 0.192-0.209 deaths/1000 person-years. Additionally, police data were more likely to include victims who were male, drivers or pedestrians, and victims from incidents with greater than one vehicle involved. We concluded that capture-recapture analysis is a good tool to estimate the incidence of road traffic deaths, and that capture-recapture analysis overcomes limitations of incomplete data sources. The World Health Organization estimated incidence of road traffic deaths for Malawi utilizing a binomial regression model and survey data and found a similar estimate despite strikingly different methods, suggesting both approaches are valid. Further research should seek to improve capture-recapture data through utilization of more than two data sources and improving accuracy of matches by minimizing missing data, application of geographic information systems, and use of names and civil registration numbers if available.

Under-Reporting of Road Traffic Mortality in Developing Countries: Application of a Capture-Recapture Statistical Model to Refine Mortality Estimates

PubMed Central

Samuel, Jonathan C.; Sankhulani, Edward; Qureshi, Javeria S.; Baloyi, Paul; Thupi, Charles; Lee, Clara N.; Miller, William C.; Cairns, Bruce A.; Charles, Anthony G.

2012-01-01

Road traffic injuries are a major cause of preventable death in sub-Saharan Africa. Accurate epidemiologic data are scarce and under-reporting from primary data sources is common. Our objectives were to estimate the incidence of road traffic deaths in Malawi using capture-recapture statistical analysis and determine what future efforts will best improve upon this estimate. Our capture-recapture model combined primary data from both police and hospital-based registries over a one year period (July 2008 to June 2009). The mortality incidences from the primary data sources were 0.075 and 0.051 deaths/1000 person-years, respectively. Using capture-recapture analysis, the combined incidence of road traffic deaths ranged 0.192–0.209 deaths/1000 person-years. Additionally, police data were more likely to include victims who were male, drivers or pedestrians, and victims from incidents with greater than one vehicle involved. We concluded that capture-recapture analysis is a good tool to estimate the incidence of road traffic deaths, and that capture-recapture analysis overcomes limitations of incomplete data sources. The World Health Organization estimated incidence of road traffic deaths for Malawi utilizing a binomial regression model and survey data and found a similar estimate despite strikingly different methods, suggesting both approaches are valid. Further research should seek to improve capture-recapture data through utilization of more than two data sources and improving accuracy of matches by minimizing missing data, application of geographic information systems, and use of names and civil registration numbers if available. PMID:22355338

Evaluation of an operational malaria outbreak identification and response system in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

PubMed

Coleman, Marlize; Coleman, Michael; Mabuza, Aaron M; Kok, Gerdalize; Coetzee, Maureen; Durrheim, David N

2008-04-27

To evaluate the performance of a novel malaria outbreak identification system in the epidemic prone rural area of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, for timely identification of malaria outbreaks and guiding integrated public health responses. Using five years of historical notification data, two binomial thresholds were determined for each primary health care facility in the highest malaria risk area of Mpumalanga province. Whenever the thresholds were exceeded at health facility level (tier 1), primary health care staff notified the malaria control programme, which then confirmed adequate stocks of malaria treatment to manage potential increased cases. The cases were followed up at household level to verify the likely source of infection. The binomial thresholds were reviewed at village/town level (tier 2) to determine whether additional response measures were required. In addition, an automated electronic outbreak identification system at town/village level (tier 2) was integrated into the case notification database (tier 3) to ensure that unexpected increases in case notification were not missed.The performance of these binomial outbreak thresholds was evaluated against other currently recommended thresholds using retrospective data. The acceptability of the system at primary health care level was evaluated through structured interviews with health facility staff. Eighty four percent of health facilities reported outbreaks within 24 hours (n = 95), 92% (n = 104) within 48 hours and 100% (n = 113) within 72 hours. Appropriate response to all malaria outbreaks (n = 113, tier 1, n = 46, tier 2) were achieved within 24 hours. The system was positively viewed by all health facility staff. When compared to other epidemiological systems for a specified 12 month outbreak season (June 2003 to July 2004) the binomial exact thresholds produced one false weekly outbreak, the C-sum 12 weekly outbreaks and the mean + 2 SD nine false weekly outbreaks. Exceeding the binomial level 1 threshold triggered an alert four weeks prior to an outbreak, but exceeding the binomial level 2 threshold identified an outbreak as it occurred. The malaria outbreak surveillance system using binomial thresholds achieved its primary goal of identifying outbreaks early facilitating appropriate local public health responses aimed at averting a possible large-scale epidemic in a low, and unstable, malaria transmission setting.

Smisc - A collection of miscellaneous functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landon Sego, PNNL

2015-08-31

A collection of functions for statistical computing and data manipulation. These include routines for rapidly aggregating heterogeneous matrices, manipulating file names, loading R objects, sourcing multiple R files, formatting datetimes, multi-core parallel computing, stream editing, specialized plotting, etc. Smisc-package A collection of miscellaneous functions allMissing Identifies missing rows or columns in a data frame or matrix as.numericSilent Silent wrapper for coercing a vector to numeric comboList Produces all possible combinations of a set of linear model predictors cumMax Computes the maximum of the vector up to the current index cumsumNA Computes the cummulative sum of a vector without propogating NAsmore » d2binom Probability functions for the sum of two independent binomials dataIn A flexible way to import data into R. dbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution df2list Row-wise conversion of a data frame to a list dfplapply Parallelized single row processing of a data frame dframeEquiv Examines the equivalence of two dataframes or matrices dkbinom Probability functions for the sum of k independent binomials factor2character Converts all factor variables in a dataframe to character variables findDepMat Identify linearly dependent rows or columns in a matrix formatDT Converts date or datetime strings into alternate formats getExtension Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path getPath Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path grabLast Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path ifelse1 Non-vectorized version of ifelse integ Simple numerical integration routine interactionPlot Two-way Interaction Plot with Error Bar linearMap Linear mapping of a numerical vector or scalar list2df Convert a list to a data frame loadObject Loads and returns the object(s) in an ".Rdata" file more Display the contents of a file to the R terminal movAvg2 Calculate the moving average using a 2-sided window openDevice Opens a graphics device based on the filename extension p2binom Probability functions for the sum of two independent binomials padZero Pad a vector of numbers with zeros parseJob Parses a collection of elements into (almost) equal sized groups pbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution pcbinom A continuous version of the binomial cdf pkbinom Probability functions for the sum of k independent binomials plapply Simple parallelization of lapply plotFun Plot one or more functions on a single plot PowerData An example of power data pvar Prints the name and value of one or more objects qbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution rbb And numerous others (space limits reporting).« less

Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis – The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A.; Longares, Luis A.; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T.

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees to adverse environmental conditions. The demonstrated relationship of MR formation to ECE across this dendrochronological network in the Mediterranean basin shows the potential of MR analysis to reconstruct the history of past climatic extremes and to predict future forest dynamics in a changing climate. PMID:27303421

Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis - The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A; Longares, Luis A; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees to adverse environmental conditions. The demonstrated relationship of MR formation to ECE across this dendrochronological network in the Mediterranean basin shows the potential of MR analysis to reconstruct the history of past climatic extremes and to predict future forest dynamics in a changing climate.

Reducing falls after hospital discharge: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial evaluating an individualised multimodal falls education programme for older adults.

PubMed

Hill, Anne-Marie; Etherton-Beer, Christopher; McPhail, Steven M; Morris, Meg E; Flicker, Leon; Shorr, Ronald; Bulsara, Max; Lee, Den-Ching; Francis-Coad, Jacqueline; Waldron, Nicholas; Boudville, Amanda; Haines, Terry

2017-02-02

Older adults frequently fall after discharge from hospital. Older people may have low self-perceived risk of falls and poor knowledge about falls prevention. The primary aim of the study is to evaluate the effect of providing tailored falls prevention education in addition to usual care on falls rates in older people after discharge from hospital compared to providing a social intervention in addition to usual care. The 'Back to My Best' study is a multisite, single blind, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with blinded outcome assessment and intention-to-treat analysis, adhering to CONSORT guidelines. Patients (n=390) (aged 60 years or older; score more than 7/10 on the Abbreviated Mental Test Score; discharged to community settings) from aged care rehabilitation wards in three hospitals will be recruited and randomly assigned to one of two groups. Participants allocated to the control group shall receive usual care plus a social visit. Participants allocated to the experimental group shall receive usual care and a falls prevention programme incorporating a video, workbook and individualised follow-up from an expert health professional to foster capability and motivation to engage in falls prevention strategies. The primary outcome is falls rates in the first 6 months after discharge, analysed using negative binomial regression with adjustment for participant's length of observation in the study. Secondary outcomes are injurious falls rates, the proportion of people who become fallers, functional status and health-related quality of life. Healthcare resource use will be captured from four sources for 6 months after discharge. The study is powered to detect a 30% relative reduction in the rate of falls (negative binomial incidence ratio 0.70) for a control rate of 0.80 falls per person over 6 months. Results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at conferences worldwide. This study is approved by hospital and university Human Research Ethics Committees. ACTRN12615000784516. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Reducing falls after hospital discharge: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial evaluating an individualised multimodal falls education programme for older adults

PubMed Central

Hill, Anne-Marie; Etherton-Beer, Christopher; McPhail, Steven M; Morris, Meg E; Flicker, Leon; Bulsara, Max; Lee, Den-Ching; Francis-Coad, Jacqueline; Waldron, Nicholas; Boudville, Amanda; Haines, Terry

2017-01-01

Introduction Older adults frequently fall after discharge from hospital. Older people may have low self-perceived risk of falls and poor knowledge about falls prevention. The primary aim of the study is to evaluate the effect of providing tailored falls prevention education in addition to usual care on falls rates in older people after discharge from hospital compared to providing a social intervention in addition to usual care. Methods and analyses The ‘Back to My Best’ study is a multisite, single blind, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with blinded outcome assessment and intention-to-treat analysis, adhering to CONSORT guidelines. Patients (n=390) (aged 60 years or older; score more than 7/10 on the Abbreviated Mental Test Score; discharged to community settings) from aged care rehabilitation wards in three hospitals will be recruited and randomly assigned to one of two groups. Participants allocated to the control group shall receive usual care plus a social visit. Participants allocated to the experimental group shall receive usual care and a falls prevention programme incorporating a video, workbook and individualised follow-up from an expert health professional to foster capability and motivation to engage in falls prevention strategies. The primary outcome is falls rates in the first 6 months after discharge, analysed using negative binomial regression with adjustment for participant's length of observation in the study. Secondary outcomes are injurious falls rates, the proportion of people who become fallers, functional status and health-related quality of life. Healthcare resource use will be captured from four sources for 6 months after discharge. The study is powered to detect a 30% relative reduction in the rate of falls (negative binomial incidence ratio 0.70) for a control rate of 0.80 falls per person over 6 months. Ethics and dissemination Results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at conferences worldwide. This study is approved by hospital and university Human Research Ethics Committees. Trial registration number ACTRN12615000784516. PMID:28153933

I Remember You: Independence and the Binomial Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Douglas W.; Rockhill, Beverly

2006-01-01

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

Possibility and challenges of conversion of current virus species names to Linnaean binomials

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Postler; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sina; Benko, Maria; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Remi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; De la Torre, Juan Carlos; DeRisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Durrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sebastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balazs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Daohong; Kobinger, Gary P.; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; Paweska, Janusz T.; Peters, C.J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfacon, Helene; Salvato , Maria; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark; Stone, D.M.; Takada , Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, N.; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Victor E.; Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield , Anna E.; Zerbini, Francisco Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

2017-01-01

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment.

Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis for two nonstationary signals.

PubMed

Zhou, Wei-Xing

2008-06-01

We propose a method called multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis to investigate the multifractal behaviors in the power-law cross-correlations between two time series or higher-dimensional quantities recorded simultaneously, which can be applied to diverse complex systems such as turbulence, finance, ecology, physiology, geophysics, and so on. The method is validated with cross-correlated one- and two-dimensional binomial measures and multifractal random walks. As an example, we illustrate the method by analyzing two financial time series.

Depressive symptoms in HIV-infected and seronegative control subjects in Cameroon: Effect of age, education and gender

PubMed Central

Kanmogne, Georgette D.; Qiu, Fang; Ntone, Félicien E.; Fonsah, Julius Y.; Njamnshi, Dora M.; Kuate, Callixte T.; Doh, Roland F.; Kengne, Anne M.; Tagny, Claude T.; Nchindap, Emilienne; Kenmogne, Léopoldine; Mbanya, Dora; Cherner, Mariana; Heaton, Robert K.; Njamnshi, Alfred K.

2017-01-01

Depression is a leading cause of HIV/AIDS disease burden; it worsens health outcomes and quality of life. Addressing this problem requires accurate quantification of the extra burden of depression to HIV/AIDS in a given population, and knowledge of the baseline depression prevalence in the general population. There has been no previous study of depression in the general Cameroonian population. The current study attempts to address that important need. We used the Beck Depression Inventory-II to assess the prevalence and severity of depressive symptoms in 270 HIV-infected and seronegative Cameroonians. Univariate analyses showed a trend toward higher depressive symptoms among cases, compared to controls (p = 0.055), and among older subjects (>40 years), compared to younger subjects (≤40 years) (p = 0.059). Analysis of depression severity showed that 33.73% of cases had moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, compared to 19.8% of controls (p<0.01). However, multivariable negative binomial regression analyses showed no effect of age, HIV status, CD4 levels, viral loads, ART, or opportunistic infections on the risk of depressive symptoms. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed significantly higher risk of depressive symptoms among females compared to males; this was significant for both female controls and female cases. Female cases had significantly higher CD4 cell counts and lower viral loads, compared to males. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed that lower education (≤10 years) was associated with increased risk of depressive symptoms. This study shows a high prevalence of depressive symptoms among seronegative controls and HIV-infected Cameroonians. Integrating care for mental disorders such as depression into primary health care and existing HIV/AIDS treatment programs in Cameroon may improve the wellbeing of the general population and could lower the HIV/AIDS burden. PMID:28231258

Outcomes and resource utilization associated with underage drinking at a level I trauma center.

PubMed

Psoter, Kevin J; Roudsari, Bahman S; Mack, Christopher; Vavilala, Monica S; Jarvik, Jeffrey G

2014-08-01

To examine the association of blood alcohol content (BAC) on hospital-based outcomes and imaging utilization for patients <21 years admitted to a level I trauma center. Retrospective analysis of alcohol-involved injuries in patients 13-20 years, admitted to a level I trauma center from 1996 to 2010. An injury was considered alcohol involved if the patient had a BAC > 0. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare mortality, discharge destination (home and skilled nursing facility), intensive care unit admission, and operating room use between patients with and without positive BAC for patients 13-15, 16-17, and 18-20 years. Multivariable linear regression was used to compare length of hospitalization. Finally, multivariable negative binomial regression evaluated radiology resource utilization (x-ray, computed tomography [CT], and magnetic resonance imaging). A total of 7,663 patients, 13-20 years old, were admitted over the study period. A positive BAC was reported in 19% of these patients. In general, the presence of alcohol was not associated with mortality rate, length of hospitalization, intensive care unit, and operating room use or discharge status for any age group. However, the presence of alcohol was associated with higher utilization of head (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.26), cervical spine (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.22), and thoracic (IRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.63) CTs in young adults 18-20 years. No differences in CT use were observed in patients 13-15 or 16-17 years. Positive BAC was not significantly associated with adverse outcomes or resource utilization in younger trauma patients. However, the use of certain body region CTs was associated with positive BAC in patients 18-20 years. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Phlebotomus perniciosus abundance in south-east Spain: assessing the role of environmental and anthropic factors.

PubMed

Risueño, José; Muñoz, Clara; Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro; Goyena, Elena; Gonzálvez, Moisés; Ortuño, María; Bernal, Luis Jesús; Ortiz, Juana; Alten, Bulent; Berriatua, Eduardo

2017-04-19

Leishmaniosis is associated with Phlebotomus sand fly vector density, but our knowledge of the environmental framework that regulates highly overdispersed vector abundance distributions is limited. We used a standardized sampling procedure in the bioclimatically diverse Murcia Region in Spain and multilevel regression models for count data to estimate P. perniciosus abundance in relation to environmental and anthropic factors. Twenty-five dog and sheep premises were sampled for sand flies using adhesive and light-attraction traps, from late May to early October 2015. Temperature, relative humidity and other animal- and premise-related data recorded on site and other environmental data were extracted from digital databases using a geographical information system. The relationship between sand fly abundance and explanatory variables was analysed using binomial regression models. The total number of sand flies captured, mostly with light-attraction traps, was 3,644 specimens, including 80% P. perniciosus, the main L. infantum vector in Spain. Abundance varied between and within zones and was positively associated with increasing altitude from 0 to 900 m above sea level, except from 500 to 700 m where it was low. Populations peaked in July and especially during a 3-day heat wave when relative humidity and wind speed plummeted. Regression models indicated that climate and not land use or soil characteristics have the greatest impact on this species density on a large geographical scale. In contrast, micro-environmental factors such as animal building characteristics and husbandry practices affect sand fly population size on a smaller scale. A standardised sampling procedure and statistical analysis for highly overdispersed distributions allow reliable estimation of P. perniciosus abundance and identification of environmental drivers. While climatic variables have the greatest impact at macro-environmental scale, anthropic factors may be determinant at a micro-geographical scale. These finding may be used to elaborate predictive distribution maps useful for vector and pathogen control programs.

Depressive symptoms in HIV-infected and seronegative control subjects in Cameroon: Effect of age, education and gender.

PubMed

Kanmogne, Georgette D; Qiu, Fang; Ntone, Félicien E; Fonsah, Julius Y; Njamnshi, Dora M; Kuate, Callixte T; Doh, Roland F; Kengne, Anne M; Tagny, Claude T; Nchindap, Emilienne; Kenmogne, Léopoldine; Mbanya, Dora; Cherner, Mariana; Heaton, Robert K; Njamnshi, Alfred K

2017-01-01

Depression is a leading cause of HIV/AIDS disease burden; it worsens health outcomes and quality of life. Addressing this problem requires accurate quantification of the extra burden of depression to HIV/AIDS in a given population, and knowledge of the baseline depression prevalence in the general population. There has been no previous study of depression in the general Cameroonian population. The current study attempts to address that important need. We used the Beck Depression Inventory-II to assess the prevalence and severity of depressive symptoms in 270 HIV-infected and seronegative Cameroonians. Univariate analyses showed a trend toward higher depressive symptoms among cases, compared to controls (p = 0.055), and among older subjects (>40 years), compared to younger subjects (≤40 years) (p = 0.059). Analysis of depression severity showed that 33.73% of cases had moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, compared to 19.8% of controls (p<0.01). However, multivariable negative binomial regression analyses showed no effect of age, HIV status, CD4 levels, viral loads, ART, or opportunistic infections on the risk of depressive symptoms. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed significantly higher risk of depressive symptoms among females compared to males; this was significant for both female controls and female cases. Female cases had significantly higher CD4 cell counts and lower viral loads, compared to males. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed that lower education (≤10 years) was associated with increased risk of depressive symptoms. This study shows a high prevalence of depressive symptoms among seronegative controls and HIV-infected Cameroonians. Integrating care for mental disorders such as depression into primary health care and existing HIV/AIDS treatment programs in Cameroon may improve the wellbeing of the general population and could lower the HIV/AIDS burden.

Effects of Clostridium difficile infection in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Sundaram, Vinay; May, Folasade P; Manne, Vignan; Saab, Sammy

2014-10-01

Infection increases mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). Little is known about the association between Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and AH. We examined the prevalence and effects of CDI in patients with AH, compared with those of other infections. We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data collected from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, from 2008 through 2011. International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification codes were used to identify patients with AH. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine risk factors that affect mortality, negative binomial regression to evaluate the effects of CDI on predicted length of stay (LOS), and Poisson regression to determine the effects of CDI on predicted hospital charges. Chi-square and Wilcoxon rank-sum analyses were used to compare mortality, LOS, and hospital charges associated with CDI with those associated with urinary tract infection (UTI) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). Of 10,939 patients with AH, 177 had CDI (1.62%). Patients with AH and CDI had increased odds of inpatient mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; P = .04), a longer predicted LOS (10.63 vs 5.75 d; P < .001), and greater predicted hospital charges ($36,924.30 vs $29,136.58; P < .001), compared with those without CDI. Compared with UTI, CDI was associated with similar mortality but greater LOS (9 vs 6 d; P < .001) and hospital charges ($45,607 vs $32,087; P < .001). SBP was associated with higher mortality than CDI (17.3% vs 10.1%; P = .045), but similar LOS and hospital charges. In patients with AH, CDI is associated with greater mortality and health care use. These effects appear similar to those for UTI and SBP. We propose further studies to determine the cost effectiveness of screening for CDI among patients with AH. Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distribution of apparent activation energy counterparts during thermo - And thermo-oxidative degradation of Aronia melanocarpa (black chokeberry).

PubMed

Janković, Bojan; Marinović-Cincović, Milena; Janković, Marija

2017-09-01

Kinetics of degradation for Aronia melanocarpa fresh fruits in argon and air atmospheres were investigated. The investigation was based on probability distributions of apparent activation energy of counterparts (ε a ). Isoconversional analysis results indicated that the degradation process in an inert atmosphere was governed by decomposition reactions of esterified compounds. Also, based on same kinetics approach, it was assumed that in an air atmosphere, the primary compound in degradation pathways could be anthocyanins, which undergo rapid chemical reactions. A new model of reactivity demonstrated that, under inert atmospheres, expectation values for ε a occured at levels of statistical probability. These values corresponded to decomposition processes in which polyphenolic compounds might be involved. ε a values obeyed laws of binomial distribution. It was established that, for thermo-oxidative degradation, Poisson distribution represented a very successful approximation for ε a values where there was additional mechanistic complexity and the binomial distribution was no longer valid. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Period prevalence and factors associated with road traffic crashes among young adults in Kuwait.

PubMed

Aldhafeeri, Eisa; Alshammari, Farah; Jafar, Hana; Malhas, Haya; Botras, Marina; Alnasrallah, Noor; Akhtar, Saeed

2018-05-01

This cross-sectional study assessed one-year period prevalence of road traffic crashes (RTCs) and examined the factors associated with RTCs among young adults in Kuwait. During December 2016, 1500 students enrolled in 15 colleges of Kuwait University were invited to participate in the study. Students 18 years old or older and who drive by themselves were eligible. Data were collected using a structured self-administered questionnaire. One-year period prevalence of RTCs (≥1 vs. none) was computed. Multivariable log-binomial regression model was used to identify the risk factors associated with one-year period prevalence of RTCs. Of 1500 invited individuals, 1465 (97.7%) participated, of which 71.4% (1046/1465) were female, 56.4% (804/1426) were aged between 21 and 25 years, and 67.1% (980/1460) were Kuwaitis. One-year period prevalence of RTC was 38.9%. The final multivariable log-binomial regression model showed that after adjusting for the influences of other variables in the model, participants were more likely to have had at least one RTC during the past year, if they habitually sped over limit (adjusted PR = 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.36), crossed a red light (adjusted PR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.16-1.52), or if they have had three or more speeding tickets (adjusted PR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.13-1.73) compared to those who reportedly had no RTC during the same period. One-year period prevalence of RTCs among university students in Kuwait, though relatively lower than the reported figures in similar populations elsewhere in the region, is yet high enough to warrant diligent attention. Habitual speeding, having had three or more speeding tickets, and the practice of crossing a red light were significantly and independently associated with at least one RTC during the past year. Targeted education and enforcement of existing traffic laws may reduce the RTCs frequency in this relatively young population. Future studies may look at impact of such interventions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

2013-12-01

Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (<4%), we can initially expect to see an increase in bicycle collisions as cycle mode share increases. However, as bicycle mode share increases beyond some unknown 'critical' level, our hypothesis also predicts a net safety improvement. To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall road safety, future research needs to pursue further development and application of community-based, macro-level CPMs. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of health intervention programs and arsenic exposure on child mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Jochem, Warren C; Razzaque, Abdur; Root, Elisabeth Dowling

2016-09-01

Respiratory infections continue to be a public health threat, particularly to young children in developing countries. Understanding the geographic patterns of diseases and the role of potential risk factors can help improve future mitigation efforts. Toward this goal, this paper applies a spatial scan statistic combined with a zero-inflated negative-binomial regression to re-examine the impacts of a community-based treatment program on the geographic patterns of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) mortality in an area of rural Bangladesh. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water is also a serious threat to the health of children in this area, and the variation in exposure to arsenic must be considered when evaluating the health interventions. ALRI mortality data were obtained for children under 2 years old from 1989 to 1996 in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System. This study period covers the years immediately following the implementation of an ALRI control program. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was first used to simultaneously estimate mortality rates and the likelihood of no deaths in groups of related households while controlling for socioeconomic status, potential arsenic exposure, and access to care. Next a spatial scan statistic was used to assess the location and magnitude of clusters of ALRI mortality. The ZINB model was used to adjust the scan statistic for multiple social and environmental risk factors. The results of the ZINB models and spatial scan statistic suggest that the ALRI control program was successful in reducing child mortality in the study area. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water was not associated with increased mortality. Higher socioeconomic status also significantly reduced mortality rates, even among households who were in the treatment program area. Community-based ALRI interventions can be effective at reducing child mortality, though socioeconomic factors may continue to influence mortality patterns. The combination of spatial and non-spatial methods used in this paper has not been applied previously in the literature, and this study demonstrates the importance of such approaches for evaluating and improving public health intervention programs.

Raw and Central Moments of Binomial Random Variables via Stirling Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Martin

2013-01-01

We consider here the problem of calculating the moments of binomial random variables. It is shown how formulae for both the raw and the central moments of such random variables may be obtained in a recursive manner utilizing Stirling numbers of the first kind. Suggestions are also provided as to how students might be encouraged to explore this…

A Mixed-Effects Heterogeneous Negative Binomial Model for Postfire Conifer Regeneration in Northeastern California, USA

Treesearch

Justin S. Crotteau; Martin W. Ritchie; J. Morgan Varner

2014-01-01

Many western USA fire regimes are typified by mixed-severity fire, which compounds the variability inherent to natural regeneration densities in associated forests. Tree regeneration data are often discrete and nonnegative; accordingly, we fit a series of Poisson and negative binomial variation models to conifer seedling counts across four distinct burn severities and...

The Effect of Sharrows, Painted Bicycle Lanes and Physically Protected Paths on the Severity of Bicycle Injuries Caused by Motor Vehicles.

PubMed

Wall, Stephen P; Lee, David C; Frangos, Spiros G; Sethi, Monica; Heyer, Jessica H; Ayoung-Chee, Patricia; DiMaggio, Charles J

2016-01-01

We conducted individual and ecologic analyses of prospectively collected data from 839 injured bicyclists who collided with motorized vehicles and presented to Bellevue Hospital, an urban Level-1 trauma center in New York City, from December 2008 to August 2014. Variables included demographics, scene information, rider behaviors, bicycle route availability, and whether the collision occurred before the road segment was converted to a bicycle route. We used negative binomial modeling to assess the risk of injury occurrence following bicycle path or lane implementation. We dichotomized U.S. National Trauma Data Bank Injury Severity Scores (ISS) into none/mild (0-8) versus moderate, severe, or critical (>8) and used adjusted multivariable logistic regression to model the association of ISS with collision proximity to sharrows (i.e., bicycle lanes designated for sharing with cars), painted bicycle lanes, or physically protected paths. Negative binomial modeling of monthly counts, while adjusting for pedestrian activity, revealed that physically protected paths were associated with 23% fewer injuries. Painted bicycle lanes reduced injury risk by nearly 90% (IDR 0.09, 95% CI 0.02-0.33). Holding all else equal, compared to no bicycle route, a bicycle injury nearby sharrows was nearly twice as likely to be moderate, severe, or critical (adjusted odds ratio 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-4.15). Painted bicycle lanes and physically protected paths were 1.52 (95% CI 0.85-2.71) and 1.66 (95% CI 0.85-3.22) times as likely to be associated with more than mild injury respectively.

Drivers of multidimensional eco-innovation: empirical evidence from the Brazilian industry.

PubMed

da Silva Rabêlo, Olivan; de Azevedo Melo, Andrea Sales Soares

2018-03-08

The study analyses the relationships between the main drivers of eco-innovation introduced by innovative industries, focused on cooperation strategy. Eco-innovation is analysed by means of a multidimensional identification strategy, showing the relationships between the independent variables and the variable of interest. The literature discussing environmental innovation is different from the one discussing other types of innovation inasmuch as it seeks to grasp its determinants and to mostly highlight the relevance of environmental regulation. The key feature of this paper is that it ascribes special relevance to cooperation strategy with external partners and to the propensity of innovative industry introducing eco-innovation. A sample of 35,060 Brazilian industries were analysed, between 2003 and 2011, by means of Binomial, Multinomial and Ordinal logistic regressions with microdata collected with the research and innovation department (PINTEC) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). The econometric results estimated by the Logit Multinomial method suggest that the cooperation with external partners practiced by innovative industries facilitates the adoption of eco-innovation in dimension 01 with probability of 64.59%, 57.63% in dimension 02 and 81.02% in dimension 03. The data reveal that the higher the degree of eco-innovation complexity, the harder industries seek to obtain cooperation with external partners. When calculating with the Logit Ordinal and Binomial models, cooperation increases the probability that the industry is eco-innovative in 65.09% and 89.34%, respectively. Environmental regulation and innovation in product and information management were also positively correlated as drivers of eco-innovation.

Measuring women's cumulative neighborhood deprivation exposure using longitudinally linked vital records: a method for life course MCH research.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Dunlop, Anne L; Hogue, Carol J R

2014-02-01

A life course conceptual framework for MCH research demands new tools for understanding population health and measuring exposures. We propose a method for measuring population-based socio-environmental trajectories for women of reproductive age. We merged maternal longitudinally-linked births to Georgia-resident women from 1994 to 2007 with census economic and social measures using residential geocodes to create woman-centered socio-environmental trajectories. We calculated a woman's neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) at the time of each of her births and, from these, we calculated a cumulative NDI. We fit Loess curves to describe average life course NDI trajectories and binomial regression models to test specific life course theory hypotheses relating cumulative NDI to risk for preterm birth. Of the 1,815,944 total live births, we linked 1,000,437 live births to 413,048 unique women with two or more births. Record linkage had high specificity but relatively low sensitivity which appears non-differential with respect to maternal characteristics. Georgia women on average experienced upward mobility across the life course, although differences by race, early life neighborhood quality, and age at first birth produced differences in cumulative NDI. Adjusted binomial models found evidence for modification of the effect of history of prior preterm birth and advancing age on risk for preterm birth by cumulative NDI. The creation of trajectories from geocoded maternal longitudinally-linked vital records is one method to carry out life course MCH research. We discuss approaches for investigating the impact of truncation of the life course, selection bias from migration, and misclassification of cumulative exposure.

Discrimination of Picea chihuahuana Martinez populations on the basis of climatic, edaphic, dendrometric, genetic and population traits

PubMed Central

Dominguez-Guerrero, Iliana Karina; del Rocío Mariscal-Lucero, Samantha; Hernández-Díaz, José Ciro; Heinze, Berthold; Prieto-Ruiz, José Ángel

2017-01-01

Background Picea chihuahuana, which is endemic to Mexico, is currently listed as “Endangered” on the Red List. Chihuahua spruce is only found in the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), Mexico. About 42,600 individuals are distributed in forty populations. These populations are fragmented and can be classified into three geographically distinct clusters in the SMO. The total area covered by P. chihuahuana populations is less than 300 ha. A recent study suggested assisted migration as an alternative to the ex situ conservation of P. chihuahuana, taking into consideration the genetic structure and diversity of the populations and the predictions regarding the future climate of the habitat. However, detailed background information is required to enable development of plans for protecting and conserving species and for successful assisted migration. Thus, it is important to identify differences between populations in relation to environmental conditions. The genetic diversity of populations, which affect vigor, evolution and adaptability of the species, must also be considered. In this study, we examined 14 populations of P. chihuahuana, with the overall aim of discriminating the populations and form clusters of this species. Methods Each population was represented by one 50 × 50 m plot established in the center of its respective location. Climate, soil, dasometric, density variables and genetic and species diversities were assessed in these plots for further analyses. The putatively neutral and adaptive AFLP markers were used to calculate genetic diversity. Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering technique and k-means clustering algorithm were used to classify the populations in the optimal number of clusters. Later stepwise binomial logistic regression was applied to test for significant differences in variables of the southern and northern P. chihuahuana populations. Spearman’s correlation test was used to analyze the relationships among all variables studied. Results The binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that seven climate variables, the geographical longitude and sand proportion in the soil separated the southern from northern populations. The northern populations grow in more arid and continental conditions and on soils with lower sand proportion. The mean genetic diversity using all AFLP studied of P. chihuahuana was significantly correlated with the mean temperature in the warmest month, where warmer temperatures are associated to larger genetic diversity. Genetic diversity of P. chihuahuana calculated with putatively adaptive AFLP was not statistically significantly correlated with any environmental factor. Discussion Future reforestation programs should take into account that at least two different groups (the northern and southern cluster) of P. chihuahuana exist, as local adaptation takes place because of different environmental conditions. PMID:28626616

Predictors of the number of under-five malnourished children in Bangladesh: application of the generalized poisson regression model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malnutrition is one of the principal causes of child mortality in developing countries including Bangladesh. According to our knowledge, most of the available studies, that addressed the issue of malnutrition among under-five children, considered the categorical (dichotomous/polychotomous) outcome variables and applied logistic regression (binary/multinomial) to find their predictors. In this study malnutrition variable (i.e. outcome) is defined as the number of under-five malnourished children in a family, which is a non-negative count variable. The purposes of the study are (i) to demonstrate the applicability of the generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model as an alternative of other statistical methods and (ii) to find some predictors of this outcome variable. Methods The data is extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007. Briefly, this survey employs a nationally representative sample which is based on a two-stage stratified sample of households. A total of 4,460 under-five children is analysed using various statistical techniques namely Chi-square test and GPR model. Results The GPR model (as compared to the standard Poisson regression and negative Binomial regression) is found to be justified to study the above-mentioned outcome variable because of its under-dispersion (variance < mean) property. Our study also identify several significant predictors of the outcome variable namely mother’s education, father’s education, wealth index, sanitation status, source of drinking water, and total number of children ever born to a woman. Conclusions Consistencies of our findings in light of many other studies suggest that the GPR model is an ideal alternative of other statistical models to analyse the number of under-five malnourished children in a family. Strategies based on significant predictors may improve the nutritional status of children in Bangladesh. PMID:23297699

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-10-01

In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

Cyberbullying victimization and mental health in adolescents and the moderating role of family dinners.

PubMed

Elgar, Frank J; Napoletano, Anthony; Saul, Grace; Dirks, Melanie A; Craig, Wendy; Poteat, V Paul; Holt, Melissa; Koenig, Brian W

2014-11-01

This study presents evidence that cyberbullying victimization relates to internalizing, externalizing, and substance use problems in adolescents and that the frequency of family dinners attenuate these associations. To examine the unique association between cyberbullying victimization and adolescent mental health (after controlling differences in involvement in traditional, face-to-face bullying) and to explore the potential moderating role of family contact in this association. This cross-sectional, observational study used survey data on 18,834 students (aged 12-18 years) from 49 schools in a Midwestern US state. Logistic regression analysis tested associations between cyberbullying victimization and the likelihood of mental health and substance use problems. Negative binomial regression analysis tested direct and synergistic contributions of cyberbullying victimization and family dinners on the rates of mental health and substance use problems. Frequency of cyberbullying victimization during the previous 12 months; victimization by traditional (face-to-face) bullying; and perpetration of traditional bullying. Five internalizing mental health problems (anxiety, depression, self-harm, suicide ideation, and suicide attempt), 2 externalizing problems (fighting and vandalism), and 4 substance use problems (frequent alcohol use, frequent binge drinking, prescription drug misuse, and over-the-counter drug misuse). About one-fifth (18.6%) of the sample experienced cyberbullying during the previous 12 months. The frequency of cyberbullying positively related to all 11 internalizing, externalizing, and substance use problems (odds ratios from 2.6 [95% CI, 1.7-3.8] to 4.5 [95% CI, 3.0-6.6]). However, victimization related more closely to rates of problems in adolescents that had fewer family dinners. Cyberbullying relates to mental health and substance use problems in adolescents, even after their involvement in face-to-face bullying is taken into account. Although correlational, these results suggest that family dinners (ie, family contact and communication) are beneficial to adolescent mental health and may help protect adolescents from the harmful consequences of cyberbullying.

Indirect and direct costs of acute coronary syndromes with comorbid atrial fibrillation, heart failure, or both

PubMed Central

Ghushchyan, Vahram; Nair, Kavita V; Page, Robert L

2015-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to determine the direct and indirect costs of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) alone and with common cardiovascular comorbidities. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1998 to 2009. Four mutually exclusive cohorts were evaluated: ACS only, ACS with atrial fibrillation (AF), ACS with heart failure (HF), and ACS with both conditions. Direct costs were calculated for all-cause and cardiovascular-related health care resource utilization. Indirect costs were determined from productivity losses from missed days of work. Regression analysis was developed for each outcome controlling for age, US census region, insurance coverage, sex, race, ethnicity, education attainment, family income, and comorbidity burden. A negative binomial regression model was used for health care utilization variables. A Tobit model was utilized for health care costs and productivity loss variables. Results Total health care costs were greatest for those with ACS and both AF and HF ($38,484±5,191) followed by ACS with HF ($32,871±2,853), ACS with AF ($25,192±2,253), and ACS only ($17,954±563). Compared with the ACS only cohort, the mean all-cause adjusted health care costs associated with ACS with AF, ACS with HF, and ACS with AF and HF were $5,073 (95% confidence interval [CI] 719–9,427), $11,297 (95% CI 5,610–16,985), and $15,761 (95% CI 4,784–26,738) higher, respectively. Average wage losses associated with ACS with and without AF and/or HF amounted to $5,266 (95% CI −7,765, −2,767), when compared with patients without these conditions. Conclusion ACS imposes a significant economic burden at both the individual and society level, particularly when with comorbid AF and HF. PMID:25565859

Reduced risk of hypoglycemia with once-daily glargine versus twice-daily NPH and number needed to harm with NPH to demonstrate the risk of one additional hypoglycemic event in type 2 diabetes: Evidence from a long-term controlled trial

PubMed Central

Rosenstock, Julio; Fonseca, Vivian; Schinzel, Stefan; Dain, Marie-Paule; Mullins, Peter; Riddle, Matthew

2016-01-01

Aims This analysis evaluated HbA1c-adjusted hypoglycemia risk with glargine versus neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) over a 5-year study in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Clinical significance was assessed using number needed to harm (NNH) to demonstrate the risk of one additional patient experiencing at least one hypoglycemic event. Methods Individual patient-level data for symptomatic documented hypoglycemia and HbA1c values from a 5-year randomized study comparing once-daily glargine (n = 513) with twice-daily NPH (n = 504) were analyzed. Symptomatic hypoglycemia was categorized according to concurrent self-monitoring blood glucose levels and need for assistance. Hypoglycemic events per patient-year as a function of HbA1c were fitted by negative binomial regression using treatment and HbA1c at endpoint as independent variables. An estimate of NNH was derived from logistic regression models. Results The cumulative number of symptomatic hypoglycemia events was consistently lower with glargine compared with NPH over 5 years. Compared with twice-daily NPH, once-daily glargine treatment resulted in significantly lower adjusted odds ratios (OR) for all daytime hypoglycemia (OR 0.74; p = 0.030) and any severe event (OR 0.64; p = 0.035), representing a 26% and 36% reduction in the odds of daytime and severe hypoglycemia, respectively. Our model predicts that, if 25 patients were treated with NPH instead of glargine, then one additional patient would experience at least one severe hypoglycemic event. Conclusions This analysis of long-term insulin treatment confirms findings from short-term studies and demonstrates that glargine provides sustained, clinically meaningful reductions in risk of hypoglycemia compared with NPH in patients with T2DM. PMID:24856612

[Optimal extraction of effective constituents from Aralia elata by central composite design and response surface methodology].

PubMed

Lv, Shao-Wa; Liu, Dong; Hu, Pan-Pan; Ye, Xu-Yan; Xiao, Hong-Bin; Kuang, Hai-Xue

2010-03-01

To optimize the process of extracting effective constituents from Aralia elata by response surface methodology. The independent variables were ethanol concentration, reflux time and solvent fold, the dependent variable was extraction rate of total saponins in Aralia elata. Linear or no-linear mathematic models were used to estimate the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Response surface methodology was used to optimize the process of extraction. The prediction was carried out through comparing the observed and predicted values. Regression coefficient of binomial fitting complex model was as high as 0.9617, the optimum conditions of extraction process were 70% ethanol, 2.5 hours for reflux, 20-fold solvent and 3 times for extraction. The bias between observed and predicted values was -2.41%. It shows the optimum model is highly predictive.

Morbidity and Health Risk Factors Among New Mexico Miners: A Comparison Across Mining Sectors.

PubMed

Shumate, Alice M; Yeoman, Kristin; Victoroff, Tristan; Evans, Kandace; Karr, Roger; Sanchez, Tami; Sood, Akshay; Laney, Anthony Scott

2017-08-01

This study examines differences in chronic health outcomes between coal, uranium, metal, and nonmetal miners. In a cross-sectional study using data from a health screening program for current and former New Mexico miners, log-binomial logistic regression models were used to estimate relative risks of respiratory and heart disease, cancer, osteoarthritis, and back pain associated with mining in each sector as compared with coal, adjusting for other relevant risk factors. Differential risks in angina, pulmonary symptoms, asthma, cancer, osteoarthritis, and back pain between mining sectors were found. New Mexico miners experience different chronic health challenges across sectors. These results demonstrate the importance of using comparable data to understand how health risks differ across mining sectors. Further investigation among a broader geographic population of miners will help identify the health priorities and needs in each sector.

Are autism spectrum conditions more prevalent in an information-technology region? A school-based study of three regions in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Roelfsema, Martine T; Hoekstra, Rosa A; Allison, Carrie; Wheelwright, Sally; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Baron-Cohen, Simon

2012-05-01

We tested for differences in the prevalence of autism spectrum conditions (ASC) in school-aged children in three geographical regions in the Netherlands. Schools were asked to provide the number of children enrolled, the number having a clinical diagnosis of ASC and/or two control neurodevelopmental conditions. Prevalence was evaluated by negative binomial regression and adjustments were made for non-response and size of the schools. The prevalence estimates of ASC in Eindhoven was 229 per 10,000, significantly higher than in Haarlem (84 per 10,000) and Utrecht (57 per 10,000), whilst the prevalence for the control conditions were similar in all regions. Phase two is planned to validate school-reported cases using standardized diagnostic methods and to explore the possible causes for these differences.

Employee resistance and injury during commercial robberies.

PubMed

Jones, Jennifer; Casteel, Carri; Peek-Asa, Corinne

2015-05-01

To examine the association between employee resistance and injury and examine whether type or location of property stolen was associated with employee resistance during commercial robberies in a large metropolitan city. Robbery data were abstracted from police crime reports between 2008 and 2012. Log binomial regression models were used to identify predictors of employee resistance and to evaluate the association between employee resistance and injury. Employees resisted a robber in nearly half of all robbery events. Active employee resistance was significantly associated with employee injury (Adj PR: 1.49, 95% confidence interval, 1.34 to 1.65). Goods being stolen were associated with active employee resistance and employee injury, whereas cash only being stolen was inversely associated with employee injury. Results suggest that employee training in nonresistance can be an important strategy in protecting employees working with the exchange of cash and goods.

Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France.

PubMed

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Boé, Julien; Ciais, Philippe; Lecerf, Remi; Van der Velde, Marijn; Makowski, David

2018-04-24

In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.

Functional limitations as potential mediators of the effects of self-reported vision status on fall risk of older adults.

PubMed

Steinman, Bernard A; Allen, Susan M; Chen, Jie; Pynoos, Jon

2015-02-01

To test whether limitations in mobility and large-muscle functioning mediate self-reported vision status to increase fall risk among respondents age 65 and above. This study used two waves from the Health and Retirement Study. We conducted binary logistic and negative binomial regression analyses to test indirect paths leading from self-reported vision status to falls, via indices of mobility and large-muscle functioning. Limited evidence was found for a mediating effect among women; however, large-muscle groups were implicated as partially mediating risk factors for falls among men with fair self-reported vision status. Implications of these findings are discussed including the need for prioritizing improved muscle strength of older men and women with poor vision as a preventive measure against falls. © The Author(s) 2014.

Firearm homicide in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand: what can we learn from long-term international comparisons?

PubMed

McPhedran, Samara; Baker, Jeanine; Singh, Pooja

2011-01-01

Although firearm homicide remains a topic of interest within criminological and policy discourse, existing research does not generally undertake longitudinal comparisons between countries. However, cross-country comparisons provide insight into whether "local" trends (e.g., declines in firearm homicide in one particular country) differ from broader, international trends. This in turn can improve knowledge about the role of factors such as policing practices and socioeconomic variables in the incidence of lethal violence using firearms. The current study compares long-term firearm homicide trends in three countries with similar social histories but different legislative regimes: Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Using negative binomial regression, the study found that the most pronounced decline in firearm homicide over the past two decades occurred in New Zealand. Connections between social disadvantage, policing policy, and violence are discussed.

Use of the negative binomial-truncated Poisson distribution in thunderstorm prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, A. C.

1971-01-01

A probability model is presented for the distribution of thunderstorms over a small area given that thunderstorm events (1 or more thunderstorms) are occurring over a larger area. The model incorporates the negative binomial and truncated Poisson distributions. Probability tables for Cape Kennedy for spring, summer, and fall months and seasons are presented. The computer program used to compute these probabilities is appended.

Orchestrating Semiotic Leaps from Tacit to Cultural Quantitative Reasoning--The Case of Anticipating Experimental Outcomes of a Quasi-Binomial Random Generator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abrahamson, Dor

2009-01-01

This article reports on a case study from a design-based research project that investigated how students make sense of the disciplinary tools they are taught to use, and specifically, what personal, interpersonal, and material resources support this process. The probability topic of binomial distribution was selected due to robust documentation of…

"Suicide shall cease to be a crime": suicide and undetermined death trends 1970-2000 before and after the decriminalization of suicide in Ireland 1993.

PubMed

Osman, Mugtaba; Parnell, Andrew C; Haley, Clifford

2017-02-01

Suicide is criminalized in more than 100 countries around the world. A dearth of research exists into the effect of suicide legislation on suicide rates and available statistics are mixed. This study investigates 10,353 suicide deaths in Ireland that took place between 1970 and 2000. Irish 1970-2000 annual suicide data were obtained from the Central Statistics Office and modelled via a negative binomial regression approach. We examined the effect of suicide legislation on different age groups and on both sexes. We used Bonferroni correction for multiple modelling. Statistical analysis was performed using the R statistical package version 3.1.2. The coefficient for the effect of suicide act on overall suicide deaths was -9.094 (95 % confidence interval (CI) -34.086 to 15.899), statistically non-significant (p = 0.476). The coefficient for the effect suicide act on undetermined deaths was statistically significant (p < 0.001) and was estimated to be -644.4 (95 % CI -818.6 to -469.9). The results of our study indicate that legalization of suicide is not associated with a significant increase in subsequent suicide deaths. However, undetermined death verdict rates have significantly dropped following legalization of suicide.

Apgar score and dental caries risk in the primary dentition of five year olds.

PubMed

Sanders, A E; Slade, G D

2010-09-01

Conditions in utero and early life underlie risk for several childhood disorders. This study tested the hypothesis that the Apgar score predicted dental caries in the primary dentition. A retrospective cohort study conducted in 2003 examined associations between conditions at birth and early life with dental caries experience at five years. Dental examination data for a random sample of five-year-old South Australian children were obtained from School Dental Service electronic records. A questionnaire mailed to the parents obtained information about neonatal status at delivery (five-minute Apgar score, birthweight, plurality, gestational age) and details about birth order, weaning, and behavioural, familial and sociodemographic characteristics. Of the 1398 sampled children with a completed questionnaire (response rate=64.6%), 1058 were singleton term deliveries among whom prevalence of dental caries was 40.1%. In weighted log-binomial regression analysis, children with an Apgar score of <=8 relative to a score of 9-10 had greater probability of dental caries in the primary dentition after adjusting for sociodemographic and behavioural covariates and water fluoridation concentration (adjusted PR=1.47, 95% CI=1.11, 1.95). Readily accessible markers of early life, such as the Apgar score, may guide clinicians in identifying children at potentially heightened risk for dental caries and aid decision-making in allocating preventive services.

Maternal Language and Adverse Birth Outcomes in a Statewide Analysis

PubMed Central

Sentell, Tetine; Chang, Ann; Jun Ahn, Hyeong; Miyamura, Jill

2016-01-01

Background Limited English proficiency is associated with disparities across diverse health outcomes. However, evidence regarding adverse birth outcomes across languages is limited, particularly among US Asian and Pacific Islander populations. The study goal was to consider the relationship of maternal language to birth outcomes using statewide hospitalization data. Methods Detailed discharge data from Hawai‘i childbirth hospitalizations from 2012 (n=11,419) were compared by maternal language (English language or not) for adverse outcomes using descriptive and multivariable log-binomial regression models, controlling for race/ethnicity, age group, and payer. Results Ten percent of mothers spoke a language other than English; 93% of these spoke an Asian or Pacific Islander language. In multivariable models, compared to English speakers non-English speakers had significantly higher risk (adjusted relative risk [ARR]: 2.02; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.34–3.04) of obstetric trauma in vaginal deliveries without instrumentation. Some significant variation was seen by language for other birth outcomes, including an increased rate of primary Caesarean sections and vaginal births after Caesarean among non-English speakers. Conclusions Non-English speakers had approximately two times higher risk of having an obstetric trauma during a vaginal birth when other factors, including race/ethnicity, were controlled. Non-English speakers also had higher rates of potentially high-risk deliveries. PMID:26361937

Daily variation in natural disaster casualties: information flows, safety, and opportunity costs in tornado versus hurricane strikes.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; Tavani, Daniele; Weiler, Stephan

2013-07-01

Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at-risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering-in-place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Maternal language and adverse birth outcomes in a statewide analysis.

PubMed

Sentell, Tetine; Chang, Ann; Ahn, Hyeong Jun; Miyamura, Jill

2016-01-01

Limited English proficiency is associated with disparities across diverse health outcomes. However, evidence regarding adverse birth outcomes across languages is limited, particularly among U.S. Asian and Pacific Islander populations. The study goal was to consider the relationship of maternal language to birth outcomes using statewide hospitalization data. Detailed discharge data from Hawaii childbirth hospitalizations from 2012 (n = 11,419) were compared by maternal language (English language or not) for adverse outcomes using descriptive and multivariable log-binomial regression models, controlling for race/ethnicity, age group, and payer. Ten percent of mothers spoke a language other than English; 93% of these spoke an Asian or Pacific Islander language. In multivariable models, compared to English speakers, non-English speakers had significantly higher risk (adjusted relative risk [ARR]: 2.02; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-3.04) of obstetric trauma in vaginal deliveries without instrumentation. Some significant variation was seen by language for other birth outcomes, including an increased rate of primary Caesarean sections and vaginal births after Caesarean, among non-English speakers. Non-English speakers had approximately two times higher risk of having an obstetric trauma during a vaginal birth when other factors, including race/ethnicity, were controlled. Non-English speakers also had higher rates of potentially high-risk deliveries.

Different meteorological parameters influence metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus activity.

PubMed

Darniot, Magali; Pitoiset, Cécile; Millière, Laurine; Aho-Glélé, Ludwig Serge; Florentin, Emmanuel; Bour, Jean-Baptiste; Manoha, Catherine

2018-05-05

Both human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause epidemics during the cold season in temperate climates. The purpose of this study was to find out whether climatic factors are associated with RSV and hMPV epidemics. Our study was based on data from 4300 patients admitted to the Dijon University Hospital for acute respiratory infection (ARI) over three winter seasons chosen for their dissimilar meteorological and virological patterns. Cases of hMPV and RSV were correlated with meteorological parameters recorded in the Dijon area. The relationship between virus data and local meteorological conditions was analyzed by univariate and multivariate negative binomial regression analysis. RSV detection was inversely associated with temperature and positively with relative humidity and air pressure, whereas hMPV was inversely associated with temperature and positively with wind speed. The association among meteorological variables and weekly ARIs cases due to RSV and hMPV demonstrated the relevance of climate factors as contributors to both hMPV and RSV activities. Meteorological drivers of RSV and hMPV epidemics are different. Low temperatures influence both hMPV and RSV activity. Relative humidity is an important predictor of RSV activity, but it does not influence hMPV activity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ethnic inequalities in periodontal disease among British adults.

PubMed

Delgado-Angulo, Elsa K; Bernabé, Eduardo; Marcenes, Wagner

2016-11-01

To explore ethnic inequalities in periodontal disease among British adults, and the role of socioeconomic position (SEP) in those inequalities. We analysed data on 1925 adults aged 16-65 years, from the East London Oral Health Inequality (ELOHI) Study, which included a random sample of adults living in an ethnically diverse and socially deprived area. Participants completed a questionnaire and were clinically examined for the number of teeth with periodontal pocket depth (PPD)≥4 mm and loss of attachment (LOA)≥4 mm. Ethnic inequalities in periodontal measures were assessed in negative binomial regression models before and after adjustment for demographic (gender and age groups) and SEP indicators (education and socioeconomic classification). Compared to White British, Pakistani, Indian, Bangladeshi and Asian Others had more teeth with PPD≥4 mm whereas White East European, Black African and Bangladeshi had more teeth with LOA≥4 mm, after adjustments for demographic and SEP measures. The association of ethnicity with periodontal disease was moderated by education, but not by socioeconomic classification. Stratified analysis showed that ethnic disparities in the two periodontal measures were limited to more educated groups. This study showed considerable ethnic disparities in periodontal disease between and within the major ethnic categories. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Structure of Co-Occurring Bullying Experiences and Associations with Suicidal Behaviors in Korean Adolescents

PubMed Central

Roh, Beop-Rae; Yoon, Yoewon; Kwon, Ahye; Oh, Seunga; Lee, Soyoung Irene; Ha, Kyunghee; Shin, Yun Mi; Song, Jungeun; Park, Eun Jin; Yoo, Heejung; Hong, Hyun Ju

2015-01-01

Objective This study had two main goals: to examine the structure of co-occurring peer bullying experiences among adolescents in South Korea from the perspective of victims and to determine the effects of bullying on suicidal behavior, including suicidal ideation and suicide attempts, among adolescents. Method This study used data gathered from 4,410 treatment-seeking adolescents at their initial visits to 31 local mental health centers in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. The structure of peer bullying was examined using latent class analysis (LCA) to classify participants’ relevant experiences. Then, a binomial logistic regression adjusted by propensity scores was conducted to identify relationships between experiences of being bullied and suicidal behaviors. Results The LCA of experiences with bullying revealed two distinct classes of bullying: physical and non-physical. Adolescents who experienced physical bullying were 3.05 times more likely to attempt suicide than those who were not bullied. Victims of (non-physical) cyber bullying were 2.94 times more likely to attempt suicide than were those who were not bullied. Conclusions Both physical and non-physical bullying were associated with suicide attempts, with similar effect sizes. Schools and mental health professionals should be more attentive than they currently are to non-physical bullying. PMID:26619356

A conceptual investigation of variables affecting the success and acceptance of SMS Marketing in Iran.

PubMed

Adhami, A; Rabiee, A; Adhami, M

2015-01-01

This paper's aim was to develop a conceptual overview of SMS marketing and delineate factors of new communications technologies on business practice. This study, which was a descriptive survey, was built on primary and secondary data source including a literature review of SMS marketing and a Questionnaire were used as the primary means of collecting secondary data. The sample size of 300 patients was determined according to the Cochran formula. Moreover, data analysis was done in SPSS by using linear regression, chi-square, t-test and Binomial test. According to the research, sex, age, education, relevance, timeliness, reliability to sender, sense of control were variables affecting the SMS marketing acceptance. This paper was qualitative and provided a solid conceptual foundation for the future empirical research on e- marketing. The potential limitation was related to the broad user of computer and mobile. In this research, we considered SMS marketing, Mobile marketing, SMS advertising as the same subject. This research will be a useful resource with important insight into the factors that may encourage or determine consumer acceptance of this new form of direct marketing. This paper addressed an important timely issue, and added to the body of literature and knowledge focusing on e-marketing.

Physical activity patterns and metabolic syndrome in Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Hastert, Theresa A.; Gong, Jian; Campos, Hannia; Baylin, Ana

2015-01-01

Objective To examine whether total physical activity or activity patterns are associated with metabolic syndrome and its components. Methods Participants include 1,994 controls from a case-control study of non-fatal myocardial infarction in Costa Rica (1994–2004). Physical activity was assessed via self-administered questionnaire and patterns were identified using principal components analysis. Metabolic syndrome was assessed via blood samples and anthropometry measurements from in-home study visits. Prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using log binomial regression. Adjusted least squares means of metabolic syndrome components were calculated by quintile of total activity and pattern scores. Results Four activity patterns were identified: rest/sleep, agricultural, light indoor activity, and manual labor. Total activity was not associated with metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome prevalence was 20% lower in participants with the highest scores on the agricultural job pattern compared to those with the lowest (PR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.68–0.94). Higher total activity was associated with lower triglycerides and lower HDL cholesterol. Higher scores on each pattern were inversely associated with metabolic syndrome components, particularly waist circumference and fasting blood glucose. Conclusions Patterns or types of physical activity may be more strongly associated with metabolic syndrome and its components than total activity levels. PMID:25445330

Is This Kid a Likely Experimenter or a Likely Persister? An Analysis of Individual-Level and Family-Level Risk Factors Predicting Multiple Offending Among a Group of Adjudicated Youth.

PubMed

Buker, Hasan; Erbay, Ayhan

2018-02-01

To implement effective diversion programs and determine for a well-suited intervention strategy, ascertaining who, among the adjudicated youth, is more likely to involve in multiple offending, rather than desisting after an initial delinquent behavior, is of great significance. The overall objective of this study, therefore, is to contribute to the existing knowledge on assessing the risks for multiple offending during juvenile adjudication processes. In this regard, this study examined the predicting powers of several individual-level and family-level risk factors on multiple offending during adolescence, based on a data set derived from court-ordered social examination reports (SERs) on 400 adjudicated youth in Turkey. Two binomial regression models were implemented to test the predictor values of various risk factors from these two domains. Results indicated the following as significant predictors of multiple offending among the subjects: younger age of onset in delinquency, dropping out of school, having delinquent/drug abusing (risky) friends, being not able to share problems with the family, increased number of siblings, and having a domestically migrated family. Conclusively, these findings were compared with the existing literature, and the policy implications and recommendations for future research were discussed.

The influence of television advertisements on promoting calls to telephone quitlines.

PubMed

Farrelly, Matthew; Mann, Nathan; Watson, Kimberly; Pechacek, Terry

2013-02-01

The aim of the study was to assess the relative effectiveness of cessation, secondhand smoke and other tobacco control television advertisements in promoting quitlines in nine states from 2002 through 2005. Quarterly, the number of individuals who used quitlines per 10 000 adult smokers in a media market are measured. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to link caller rates to market-level exposure to tobacco control television advertisements overall and by message theme. The relationship between caller rates and advertising exposure was positive and statistically significant (P < 0.001). Advertisements that focus on promoting cessation (P < 0.001), highlighting the dangers of secondhand smoke (P = 0.037), and all other tobacco countermarketing advertisements (P = 0.027) were significantly associated with quitline caller rates. For every 10% increase in exposure to cessation, secondhand smoke and other tobacco countermarketing advertisements, caller rates increased by 1.1, 0.2 and 0.4%, respectively. Caller rates significantly increased in quarters when cigarette excise tax increased (P < 0.001) and when the percentage of the population covered by comprehensive smoke-free air laws increased (P = 0.022). Although advertisements promoting cessation are the most effective in driving quitline use, other topics, such as messages highlighting the dangers of secondhand smoke, also prompt their quitlines.

[Impact of level of physical activity on healthcare utilization among Korean adults].

PubMed

Kim, Jiyun; Park, Seungmi

2012-04-01

This study was done to identify the impact of physical activity on healthcare utilization among Korean adults. Drawing from the 2008 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES IV-2), data from 6,521 adults who completed the Health Interview and Health Behavior Surveys were analyzed. Association between physical activity and healthcare utilization was tested using the χ²-test. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the odds ratios of using outpatient and inpatient healthcare for different levels of physical activity after adjusting for predisposing, enabling, and need factors. A generalized linear model applying a negative binomial distribution was used to determine how the level of physical activity was related to use of outpatient and inpatient healthcare. Physically active participants were 16% less likely to use outpatient healthcare (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74-0.97) and 23% less likely to use inpatient healthcare (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93) than physically inactive participants. Levels of outpatient and inpatient healthcare use decreased as levels of physical activity increased, after adjusting for relevant factors. An independent association between being physically active and lower healthcare utilization was ascertained among Korean adults indicating a need to develop nursing intervention programs that encourage regular physical activity.

A conceptual investigation of variables affecting the success and acceptance of SMS Marketing in Iran

PubMed Central

Adhami, A; Rabiee, A; Adhami, M

2015-01-01

This paper’s aim was to develop a conceptual overview of SMS marketing and delineate factors of new communications technologies on business practice. This study, which was a descriptive survey, was built on primary and secondary data source including a literature review of SMS marketing and a Questionnaire were used as the primary means of collecting secondary data. The sample size of 300 patients was determined according to the Cochran formula. Moreover, data analysis was done in SPSS by using linear regression, chi-square, t-test and Binomial test. According to the research, sex, age, education, relevance, timeliness, reliability to sender, sense of control were variables affecting the SMS marketing acceptance. This paper was qualitative and provided a solid conceptual foundation for the future empirical research on e- marketing. The potential limitation was related to the broad user of computer and mobile. In this research, we considered SMS marketing, Mobile marketing, SMS advertising as the same subject. This research will be a useful resource with important insight into the factors that may encourage or determine consumer acceptance of this new form of direct marketing. This paper addressed an important timely issue, and added to the body of literature and knowledge focusing on e-marketing. PMID:28255405

Barriers to and unmet needs for supportive services: experiences of Asian-American caregivers.

PubMed

Li, Hong

2004-09-01

This study examined service barriers to and unmet needs for in-home and community-based supportive services and identified risk factors that were related to unmet service needs reported by Asian American caregivers. Data were extracted from the Family Caregiving in the U.S. Survey, conducted by the National Alliance for Caregivers (NAC) and the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) in 1997. The sample included 157 Asian American caregivers whose care receivers used supportive services in the past 12 months. Nearly one half of Asian American caregivers reported service barriers. The barriers they identified most often were related to personal issues that caregivers often felt "too proud to accept it" or "didn't want outsiders coming in." Other frequently reported barriers were related to service providers, including "service is not available," "bureaucracy too complex," or "can't find qualified providers." With respect to unmet service needs, more than one half of caregivers reported that services provided did not meet care receivers' needs. The service needs that caregivers most frequently reported as unmet were adult day care, meal services, and personal care. Results from a negative binomial regression analysis showed that elderly persons' chronic conditions, caregivers' educational attainment, and levels of informal assistance were significantly related to unmet service needs.

Maternal dietary fat intake in association with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Lyall, Kristen; Munger, Kassandra L; O'Reilly, Éilis J; Santangelo, Susan L; Ascherio, Alberto

2013-07-15

Our goal in this study was to determine whether maternal fat intake before or during pregnancy was associated with risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the offspring. Our primary analysis included 317 mothers who reported a child with ASD and 17,728 comparison mothers from the Nurses' Health Study II (index births in 1991-2007). Dietary information was collected prospectively through a validated food frequency questionnaire. Binomial regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted risk ratios. Maternal intake of linoleic acid was significantly inversely associated with ASD risk in offspring, corresponding to a 34% reduction in risk in the highest versus lowest quartiles of intake. Mothers in the lowest 5% of ω-3 fatty acid intake had a significant increase in offspring ASD risk as compared with the remaining distribution (risk ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 2.32); this association was also seen in the subgroup of women (86 cases and 5,798 noncases) for whom dietary information during pregnancy was available (risk ratio = 2.42, 95% confidence interval: 1.19, 4.91). Thus, variations in intake of polyunsaturated fats within the range commonly observed among US women could affect fetal brain development and ASD risk. Because the number of women with diet assessed during pregnancy was small, however, these results should be interpreted cautiously.

Fat Sensation: Fatty Acid Taste and Olfaction Sensitivity and the Link with Disinhibited Eating Behaviour.

PubMed

Kindleysides, Sophie; Beck, Kathryn L; Walsh, Daniel C I; Henderson, Lisa; Jayasinghe, Shakeela N; Golding, Matt; Breier, Bernhard H

2017-08-15

Perception of fat taste, aroma, and texture are proposed to influence food preferences, thus shaping dietary intake and eating behaviour and consequently long-term health. In this study, we investigated associations between fatty acid taste, olfaction, mouthfeel of fat, dietary intake, eating behaviour, and body mass index (BMI). Fifty women attended three sessions to assess oleic acid taste and olfaction thresholds, the olfactory threshold for n -butanol and subjective mouthfeel ratings of custard samples. Dietary intake and eating behaviour were evaluated using a Food Frequency and Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire, respectively. Binomial regression analysis was used to model fat taste and olfaction data. Taste and olfactory detection for oleic acid were positively correlated ( r = 0.325; p < 0.02). Oleic acid taste hypersensitive women had significantly increased n -butanol olfactory sensitivity ( p < 0.03). The eating behaviour disinhibition and BMI were higher in women who were hyposensitive to oleic acid taste ( p < 0.05). Dietary intake of nuts, nut spreads, and seeds were significantly correlated with high olfactory sensitivity to oleic acid ( p < 0.01). These findings demonstrate a clear link between fatty acid taste sensitivity and olfaction and suggest that fat taste perception is associated with specific characteristics of eating behaviour and body composition.

Research experiences and mentoring practices in selected east Asian graduate programs: predictors of research productivity among doctoral students in molecular biology.

PubMed

Ynalvez, Ruby; Garza-Gongora, Claudia; Ynalvez, Marcus Antonius; Hara, Noriko

2014-01-01

Although doctoral mentors recognize the benefits of providing quality advisement and close guidance, those of sharing project management responsibilities with mentees are still not well recognized. We observed that mentees, who have the opportunity to co-manage projects, generate more written output. Here we examine the link between research productivity, doctoral mentoring practices (DMP), and doctoral research experiences (DRE) of mentees in programs in the non-West. Inspired by previous findings that early career productivity is a strong predictor of later productivity, we examine the research productivity of 210 molecular biology doctoral students in selected programs in Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan. Using principal component (PC) analysis, we derive two sets of PCs: one set from 15 DMP and another set from 16 DRE items. We model research productivity using Poisson and negative-binomial regression models with these sets as predictors. Our findings suggest a need to re-think extant practices and to allocate resources toward professional career development in training future scientists. We contend that doctoral science training must not only be an occasion for future scientists to learn scientific and technical skills, but it must also be the opportunity to experience, to acquire, and to hone research management skills. © 2014 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

Need for recovery from work and sleep-related complaints among nursing professionals.

PubMed

Silva-Costa, Aline; Griep, Rosane Harter; Fischer, Frida Marina; Rotenberg, Lúcia

2012-01-01

The concept of need for recovery from work (NFR) was deduced from the effort recuperation model. In this model work produces costs in terms of effort during the working day. When there is enough time and possibilities to recuperate, a worker will arrive at the next working day with no residual symptoms of previous effort. NFR evaluates work characteristics such as psychosocial demands, professional work hours or schedules. However, sleep may be an important part of the recovery process. The aim of the study was to test the association between sleep-related complaints and NFR. A cross-sectional study was carried out at three hospitals. All females nursing professionals engaged in assistance to patients were invited to participate (N = 1,307). Participants answered a questionnaire that included four sleep-related complaints (insomnia, unsatisfactory sleep, sleepiness during work hours and insufficient sleep), work characteristics and NRF scale. Binomial logistic regression analysis showed that all sleep-related complaints are associated with a high need for recovery from work. Those who reported insufficient sleep showed a greater chance of high need for recovery; OR=2.730 (CI 95% 2.074 - 3.593). These results corroborate the hypothesis that sleep is an important aspect of the recovery process and, therefore, should be thoroughly investigated.

Work Hours and Absenteeism Among Police Officers

PubMed Central

Fekedulegn, Desta; Burchfiel, Cecil M.; Hartley, Tara A.; Baughman, Penelope; Charles, Luenda E.; Andrew, Michael E.; Violanti, John M.

2015-01-01

In this study, the cross-sectional association of paid work hours with episodes of work absence was examined in a cohort of police officers. Study subjects were participants from the Buffalo Cardio-Metabolic Occupational Police Stress (BCOPS) study examined between 2004 and 2009. Among 395 study participants with complete data, day-by-day work history records during the one-year period prior to date of examination were used to determine episodes of one-day and three day work absence. The Negative binomial regression analysis was used to examine rate ratios (RR) of work absence. Analyses were also by gender. A one-hour increase in total work hours was associated with 5% reduction in rate of stratified one-day work absence (RR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92 – 0.98) and with 8% reduction in rate of three-day work absence (RR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.89 – 0.95). The association of total work hours with episodes of one-day work absence was significant only in men while the association with episodes of three-day work absence was evident in men and women. In conclusion, in this cohort of police officers, work hours were negatively associated with both durations of work absence (one-day, ≥ 3 consecutive days). PMID:24707589

Prevalence and predictors of sunburn among beachgoers.

PubMed

de Troya-Martín, Magdalena; de Gálvez-Aranda, María Victoria; Rivas-Ruiz, Francisco; Blázquez-Sánchez, Nuria; Fernández-Morano, Maria Teresa; Padilla-España, Laura; Herrera-Ceballos, Enrique

2018-03-01

Painful sunburns at any age are one of the main risk factors for skin cancer. To determine the prevalence and predictors of sunburn among beachgoers. A cross-sectional health survey was conducted at the beach during the summer. Adults >18 years with an understanding of Spanish were interviewed using a questionnaire about behaviours, attitudes and knowledge related to sun exposure at the beach. A descriptive analysis was performed, and a log-binomial regression model was used to determine predictors of sunburn. The survey was completed by 1054 beachgoers, with a mean age of 43.8 (SD: 18.7) years, 61.2% women, skin phototypes i (13.6%), ii (22.3%), iii (34.0%) and iv (30.2%). 46.9% of responders reported at least one painful sunburn during the previous summer. Age, sex, education, skin phototype, midday sun exposure, sun protection habits, attitudes towards tanning and knowledge about skin cancer were identified as independent predictors of sunburn. It is necessary to develop photoprotection campaigns aimed at beachgoers, particularly in young people, men, those with skin phototypes I-III and secondary or university education. Educational strategies should be aimed at discouraging sun exposure at midday, changing attitudes towards tanning and improving knowledge about skin cancer. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association between Q192R paraoxonase 1 polymorphism and serumadipocyte-fatty acid binding protein (FABP4) levels in Mexican women.

PubMed

Ochoa-Martínez, Ángeles C; Ruíz-Vera, Tania; Orta-García, Sandra T; Domínguez-Cortinas, Gabriela; Jiménez-Avalos, Jorge A; Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N

2017-06-01

This study aimed to evaluate the genetic effects of PON1 Q192R polymorphism on serum FABP4 levels in Mexican women. PON1 Q192R polymorphism was genotyped using a TaqMan allelic discrimination assay and serum FABP4 concentration was measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The distribution of genotype frequencies in the assessed women (PON1 Q192R polymorphism) was QQ = 20%, QR = 48% and RR = 32%. Significantly higher serum FABP4 levels were found in women with genotype QR/RR (20.6 ± 2.20 ng/mL), when compared with the levels found in the QQ group (12.8 ± 1.70 ng/mL) (p = .004). After, the odds ratio (OR) was calculated by binomial logistic regression analysis and a significantly higher OR was found in the QR/RR group when compared with the QQ group (OR = 3.45; 95% CI = 1.80-16.50; p < .05). The results support an association between 192R-allele of the PON1 polymorphism (Q192R) and increased serum FABP4 levels (suggested as an early biomarker of CVDs risk) in assessed Mexican women.

Association of diabetic peripheral arterial disease and objectively-measured physical activity: NHANES 2003-2004

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although much is known about the management of peripheral arterial disease among adults in the general population, the management of this disease among those with diabetes, and the effects of diabetic-induced peripheral arterial disease on objectively-measured physical activity, is unclear. Here, we examined the association between accelerometer-assessed physical activity and peripheral arterial disease among a national sample of U.S. adults with diabetes. Methods Data from the 2003–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. Physical activity was measured using an accelerometer in 254 adults with diabetes. Peripheral arterial disease was assessed via ankle brachial index. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to examine the association between physical activity and peripheral arterial disease. Results Results were adjusted for age, gender, race-ethnicity, comorbidity index, smoking, HgbA1C, C-reactive protein, homocysteine, glomerular filtration rate, microalbuminuria, peripheral neuropathy, physical functioning, and medication use. After adjustments, participants with peripheral arterial disease engaged in 23% less physical activity (RR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.62-0.96) than those without peripheral arterial disease. Conclusions These findings demonstrate an inverse association between accelerometer-assessed physical activity and peripheral arterial disease in a national sample of U.S adults with diabetes. PMID:24967220

Neighborhood fast food restaurants and fast food consumption: A national study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Recent studies suggest that neighborhood fast food restaurant availability is related to greater obesity, yet few studies have investigated whether neighborhood fast food restaurant availability promotes fast food consumption. Our aim was to estimate the effect of neighborhood fast food availability on frequency of fast food consumption in a national sample of young adults, a population at high risk for obesity. Methods We used national data from U.S. young adults enrolled in wave III (2001-02; ages 18-28) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n = 13,150). Urbanicity-stratified multivariate negative binomial regression models were used to examine cross-sectional associations between neighborhood fast food availability and individual-level self-reported fast food consumption frequency, controlling for individual and neighborhood characteristics. Results In adjusted analysis, fast food availability was not associated with weekly frequency of fast food consumption in non-urban or low- or high-density urban areas. Conclusions Policies aiming to reduce neighborhood availability as a means to reduce fast food consumption among young adults may be unsuccessful. Consideration of fast food outlets near school or workplace locations, factors specific to more or less urban settings, and the role of individual lifestyle attitudes and preferences are needed in future research. PMID:21740571

Attachment to employment and education before work disability pension due to a mental disorder among young adults.

PubMed

Mattila-Holappa, Pauliina; Joensuu, Matti; Ahola, Kirsi; Vahtera, Jussi; Virtanen, Marianna

2016-05-13

We examined attachment to employment and education among young adults before they were granted a fixed-term work disability pension due to psychiatric diagnosis, and the factors associated with this attachment. The data comprised all persons aged 18-34 who received a new-onset fixed-term disability pension compensation due to a mental disorder in Finland in 2008 (N = 1163). The data were derived from pension applications and the enclosed medical records, and were linked to employment records from a period of three years before the disability pension. We analysed the factors associated with attachment to employment or education with log-binomial regression analysis. Fifty percent of the participants were attached to employment or education before work disability pension. The attached were more often women; had higher basic and vocational education; had mood disorder rather than psychosis diagnosis as a primary diagnosis; and had no record of harmful alcohol use or drug use, or recorded symptoms of mental disorders already at school-age. The level of attachment to employment or education before work disability pension is low among young adults with mental disorders and several risk factors predict poor attachment; severe or comorbid mental disorder, early-life psychiatric morbidity, substance use, male sex, low basic education, and lacking vocational education.

Acute Rejection in Renal Transplant Patients of a Hospital in Bogota, Colombia

PubMed Central

García, P.; Huerfano, M; Rodríguez, M; Caicedo, A; Berrío, F; Gonzalez, C

2016-01-01

Background: Renal transplantation is the best treatment for end stage renal disease. Acute graft rejection is one of the main complications and may influence graft survival. Objective: To determine the incidence and features of acute cellular rejection (ACR) episodes confirmed by biopsy. Methods: We studied a cohort of 175 patients who underwent renal transplantation between 2004 and 2012 to determine the cumulative incidence of ACR confirmed by biopsy and to identify the associated risk factors using multivariate analysis. Results: The one-year patient survival was 96.6%; the graft survival was 93.7%. The incidence of ACR within one year was 14.3%, of which 46% were observed within 6 months following transplantation. The most frequently observed ACR type was 1B according to the Banff classification system (42%). A relationship between ACR and receipt of a kidney from expanded criteria donors was observed, both in univariate and adjusted multiple log-binomial regression analyses, but only 6.3% of patients received extended criteria donor kidneys. No other relationships between variables were found. Conclusion: ACR frequency in this study was similar to that of other cohorts reported previously. We need a bigger sample of renal transplants from expanded criteria donors, PRA and DSA test to support the results. PMID:27721962

Psychotherapeutic and vocational interventions among young adults with work disability due to mental disorders in Finland.

PubMed

Mattila-Holappa, Pauliina; Joensuu, Matti; Ahola, Kirsi; Kivekäs, Teija; Kivimäki, Mika; Koskinen, Aki; Virtanen, Marianna

2018-05-01

Backround: Little is known about treatment and rehabilitation received and planned among young adults with work disability due to a mental disorder. To examine the implemented psychotherapeutic and vocational interventions and treatment plans among young adults with work disability due to a mental disorder. Data were collected from medical records of young Finnish adults aged 18-34 with a long-term work disability history due to a mental disorder (N = 1163). The participant characteristics associated with four types of interventions were analyzed using log-binomial regression analysis. In total, 34% had participated in a psychotherapeutic intervention. Of the non-students, 26% had participated in vocational intervention. For 46% of the non-students, neither type of intervention was planned. Both implemented and planned psychotherapeutic interventions were associated with female sex, high education, attachment to employment, and absence of substance abuse. Low education and childhood adversity were associated with implemented vocational interventions and absence of substance abuse with planned vocational interventions. There is an unmet need for psychotherapeutic interventions among men, among those with lower socio-economic status, and among those with poor attachment to labor market. In addition, there is a lack of vocational interventions for those with high education. People with substance abuse are largely excluded from both types of interventions.

The influence of baseline marijuana use on treatment of cocaine dependence: application of an informative-priors bayesian approach.

PubMed

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F Gerard

2012-01-01

Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect.

The effectiveness of avalanche airbags.

PubMed

Haegeli, Pascal; Falk, Markus; Procter, Emily; Zweifel, Benjamin; Jarry, Frédéric; Logan, Spencer; Kronholm, Kalle; Biskupič, Marek; Brugger, Hermann

2014-09-01

Asphyxia is the primary cause of death among avalanche victims. Avalanche airbags can lower mortality by directly reducing grade of burial, the single most important factor for survival. This study aims to provide an updated perspective on the effectiveness of this safety device. A retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents involving at least one airbag user between 1994 and 2012 in Austria, Canada, France, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland and the United States. A multivariate analysis was used to calculate adjusted absolute risk reduction and estimate the effectiveness of airbags on grade of burial and mortality. A univariate analysis was used to examine causes of non-deployment. Binomial linear regression models showed main effects for airbag use, avalanche size and injuries on critical burial, and for grade of burial, injuries and avalanche size on mortality. The adjusted risk of critical burial is 47% with non-inflated airbags and 20% with inflated airbags. The adjusted mortality is 44% for critically buried victims and 3% for non-critically buried victims. The adjusted absolute mortality reduction for inflated airbags is -11 percentage points (22% to 11%; 95% confidence interval: -4 to -18 percentage points) and adjusted risk ratio is 0.51 (95% confidence interval: 0.29 to 0.72). Overall non-inflation rate is 20%, 60% of which is attributed to deployment failure by the user. Although the impact on survival is smaller than previously reported, these results confirm the effectiveness of airbags. Non-deployment remains the most considerable limitation to effectiveness. Development of standardized data collection protocols is encouraged to facilitate further research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergency department clinical redesign, team-based care and improvements in hospital performance: A time series analysis.

PubMed

Dinh, Michael M; Green, Timothy C; Bein, Kendall J; Lo, Serigne; Jones, Aaron; Johnson, Terence

2015-08-01

The objective was to evaluate the impact of an ED clinical redesign project that involved team-based care and early senior assessment on hospital performance. This was an interrupted time series analysis performed using daily hospital performance data 6 months before and 8 months after the implementation of the clinical redesign intervention that involved Emergency Consultant-led team-based care, redistribution of ED beds and implementation of a senior nursing coordination roles in the ED. The primary outcome was the daily National Emergency Access Target (NEAT) performance (proportion of total daily ED presentations that were admitted to an inpatient ward or discharged from ED within 4 h of arrival). Secondary outcomes were daily ALOS in ED, inpatient Clinical Emergency Response System (CERS) calls and hospital mortality. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average analysis was used to model NEAT performance. Hospital mortality was modelled using negative binomial regression. After adjusting for patient volume, inpatient admissions, ambulance, hospital occupancy, weekends ED Consultant numbers, weekends and underlying trends, there was a 17% improvement in NEAT associated with the post-intervention period (95% CI 12, 19% P < 0.001). There was no change in the number of CERS calls and the median daily hospital mortality rate reduced from 1.04% to 0.96% (P = 0.025). An ED-focused clinical redesign project was associated with a 17% improvement in NEAT performance with no evidence of an increase in clinical deterioration on inpatient wards and evidence for an improvement in hospital mortality. © 2015 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

The Influence of Baseline Marijuana Use on Treatment of Cocaine Dependence: Application of an Informative-Priors Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F. Gerard

2012-01-01

Background: Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. Method: A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Results: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. Conclusion: The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect. PMID:23115553

Olfactory function and neurocognitive outcomes in old age: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study.

PubMed

Palta, Priya; Chen, Honglei; Deal, Jennifer A; Sharrett, A Richey; Gross, Alden; Knopman, David; Griswold, Michael; Heiss, Gerardo; Mosley, Thomas H

2018-03-30

We tested the hypothesis that poor sense of smell is associated with lower cognitive function and higher mild cognitive impairment (MCI) prevalence. Olfaction, measured by the Sniffin' Sticks test, was categorized as olfactory impairment (OI) (score ≤6) or no OI (score >6). MCI was adjudicated based on review of a neuropsychological examination. Linear regression estimated the mean difference in cognitive factor scores, and log-binomial regression quantified MCI prevalence among participants with versus without OI. Participants with OI had lower mean factor scores (memory: -0.27 standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.35 to -0.19; language: -0.24 SD, 95% CI: -0.30 to -0.17; executive function/processing speed: -0.09 SD, 95% CI: -0.12 to -0.06; and general cognitive performance: -0.25 SD, 95% CI: -0.30 to -0.20). OI was also associated with MCI (n = 204; prevalence ratio = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.37, 1.78). An impaired sense of smell may serve as a readily accessible early marker of neurodegeneration and improve upon the prevailing delayed diagnoses and underascertainment of MCI/dementia. Copyright © 2018 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nursing home quality and financial performance: does the racial composition of residents matter?

PubMed

Chisholm, Latarsha; Weech-Maldonado, Robert; Laberge, Alex; Lin, Feng-Chang; Hyer, Kathryn

2013-12-01

To examine the effects of the racial composition of residents on nursing homes' financial and quality performance. The study examined Medicare and Medicaid-certified nursing homes across the United States that submitted Medicare cost reports between the years 1999 and 2004 (11,472 average per year). Data were obtained from the Minimum Data Set, the On-Line Survey Certification and Reporting, Medicare Cost Reports, and the Area Resource File. Panel data regression with random intercepts and negative binomial regression were conducted with state and year fixed effects. Financial and quality performance differed between nursing homes with high proportions of black residents and nursing homes with no or medium proportions of black residents. Nursing homes with no black residents had higher revenues and higher operating margins and total profit margins and they exhibited better processes and outcomes than nursing homes with high proportions of black residents. Nursing homes' financial viability and quality of care are influenced by the racial composition of residents. Policy makers should consider initiatives to improve both the financial and quality performance of nursing homes serving predominantly black residents. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Loneliness as a Public Health Issue: The Impact of Loneliness on Health Care Utilization Among Older Adults

PubMed Central

Jayawardhana, Jayani

2015-01-01

Objectives. We aimed to determine whether loneliness is associated with higher health care utilization among older adults in the United States. Methods. We used panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (2008 and 2012) to examine the long-term impact of loneliness on health care use. The sample was limited to community-dwelling persons in the United States aged 60 years and older. We used negative binomial regression models to determine the impact of loneliness on physician visits and hospitalizations. Results. Under 2 definitions of loneliness, we found that a sizable proportion of those aged 60 years and older in the United States reported loneliness. Regression results showed that chronic loneliness (those lonely both in 2008 and 4 years later) was significantly and positively associated with physician visits (β = 0.075, SE = 0.034). Loneliness was not significantly associated with hospitalizations. Conclusions. Loneliness is a significant public health concern among elders. In addition to easing a potential source of suffering, the identification and targeting of interventions for lonely elders may significantly decrease physician visits and health care costs. PMID:25790413

Consideration of species community composition in statistical ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Diseases are increasing in marine ecosystems, and these increases have been attributed to a number of environmental factors including climate change, pollution, and overfishing. However, many studies pool disease prevalence into taxonomic groups, disregarding host species composition when comparing sites or assessing environmental impacts on patterns of disease presence. We used simulated data under a known environmental effect to assess the ability of standard statistical methods (binomial and linear regression, ANOVA) to detect a significant environmental effect on pooled disease prevalence with varying species abundance distributions and relative susceptibilities to disease. When one species was more susceptible to a disease and both species only partially overlapped in their distributions, models tended to produce a greater number of false positives (Type I error). Differences in disease risk between regions or along an environmental gradient tended to be underestimated, or even in the wrong direction, when highly susceptible taxa had reduced abundances in impacted sites, a situation likely to be common in nature. Including relative abundance as an additional variable in regressions improved model accuracy, but tended to be conservative, producing more false negatives (Type II error) when species abundance was strongly correlated with the environmental effect. Investigators should be cautious of underlying assumptions of species similarity in susceptib

JROTC as a Substitute for PE: Really?

PubMed Central

Lounsbery, Monica A. F.; Holt, Kathryn A.; Monnat, Shannon A.; McKenzie, Thomas L.; Funk, Brian

2014-01-01

Purpose Even though physical education (PE) is an evidence-based strategy for providing and promoting physical activity, alternative programs such as Junior Reserve Officer Training Corps (JROTC) are commonly substituted for PE in many states. The purpose of this study was to compare student physical activity and lesson contexts during high school PE and JROTC sessions. Method SOFIT (System for Observing Fitness Instruction Time) was used to assess PE and JROTC sessions (N=38 each) in 4 high schools that provided both programs. Data were analyzed using t-tests, negative binomial regression, and logistic regression. Results Students engaged in significantly more moderate to vigorous physical activity during PE than JROTC sessions and they were significantly less sedentary. Significant differences between the two program types were also found among lesson contexts. Conclusions PE and JROTC provide substantially different content and contexts and students in them engage in substantially different amounts of moderate to vigorous physical activity. Students in JROTC, and perhaps other alternative programs, are less likely to accrue health-supporting physical activity and engage in fewer opportunities to be physically fit and motorically skilled. Policies and practices for providing substitutions for PE should be carefully examined. PMID:25141093

Resistant to the recession: low-income adults' maintenance of cooking and away-from-home eating behaviors during times of economic turbulence.

PubMed

Smith, Lindsey P; Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M

2014-05-01

We examined the effects of state-level unemployment rates during the recession of 2008 on patterns of home food preparation and away-from-home (AFH) eating among low-income and minority populations. We analyzed pooled cross-sectional data on 118 635 adults aged 18 years or older who took part in the American Time Use Study. Multinomial logistic regression models stratified by gender were used to evaluate the associations between state-level unemployment, poverty, race/ethnicity, and time spent cooking, and log binomial regression was used to assess respondents' AFH consumption patterns. High state-level unemployment was associated with only trivial increases in respondents' cooking patterns and virtually no change in their AFH eating patterns. Low-income and racial/ethnic minority groups were not disproportionately affected by the recession. Even during a major economic downturn, US adults are resistant to food-related behavior change. More work is needed to understand whether this reluctance to change is attributable to time limits, lack of knowledge or skill related to food preparation, or lack of access to fresh produce and raw ingredients.

Resistant to the Recession: Low-Income Adults’ Maintenance of Cooking and Away-From-Home Eating Behaviors During Times of Economic Turbulence

PubMed Central

Smith, Lindsey P.; Ng, Shu Wen

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined the effects of state-level unemployment rates during the recession of 2008 on patterns of home food preparation and away-from-home (AFH) eating among low-income and minority populations. Methods. We analyzed pooled cross-sectional data on 118 635 adults aged 18 years or older who took part in the American Time Use Study. Multinomial logistic regression models stratified by gender were used to evaluate the associations between state-level unemployment, poverty, race/ethnicity, and time spent cooking, and log binomial regression was used to assess respondents’ AFH consumption patterns. Results. High state-level unemployment was associated with only trivial increases in respondents’ cooking patterns and virtually no change in their AFH eating patterns. Low-income and racial/ethnic minority groups were not disproportionately affected by the recession. Conclusions. Even during a major economic downturn, US adults are resistant to food-related behavior change. More work is needed to understand whether this reluctance to change is attributable to time limits, lack of knowledge or skill related to food preparation, or lack of access to fresh produce and raw ingredients. PMID:24625145

Azathioprine response in patients with fibrotic connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease.

PubMed

Oldham, Justin M; Lee, Cathryn; Valenzi, Eleanor; Witt, Leah J; Adegunsoye, Ayodeji; Hsu, Scully; Chen, Lena; Montner, Steven; Chung, Jonathan H; Noth, Imre; Vij, Rekha; Strek, Mary E

2016-12-01

Azathioprine is a commonly prescribed therapy for connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD). Combination therapy that included azathioprine was recently shown to increase the risk of death and hospitalization in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Whether azathioprine increases the risk of adverse outcomes in patients with fibrotic CTD-ILD, including those with CTD-associated usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP), remains unknown. A retrospective cohort analysis was performed to determine the combined incidence rate of death, transplant and respiratory hospitalization associated with azathioprine exposure. A fibrotic CTD-ILD cohort treated with mycophenolate mofetil served as a comparator group. Incidence rates were compared with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) generated by negative binomial regression. Longitudinal pulmonary function response was then assessed using mixed effects linear regression models. Fifty-four patients were treated with azathioprine and forty-three with mycophenolate. Medication discontinuation due to non-respiratory side effects occurred in 27% and 5% of the azathioprine and mycophenolate cohorts, respectively. The combined incidence rate of adverse outcomes was 0.015 and 0.013 for azathioprine and mycophenolate, respectively (IRR 1.23; 95% CI 0.49-3.12; p = 0.66). Similar incidence rates were observed among those with CTD-UIP (IRR 0.83; 95% CI 0.21-3.31; p = 0.79). Both groups demonstrated pulmonary function stability over time, with the azathioprine group demonstrating a marginal improvement. A significant minority of patients could not tolerate azathioprine due to non-respiratory side effects. Of those who did tolerate azathioprine, a similar incidence of adverse outcomes was observed as those treated with mycophenolate. Both therapies were associated with stability in pulmonary function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SWI or T2*: which MRI sequence to use in the detection of cerebral microbleeds? The Karolinska Imaging Dementia Study.

PubMed

Shams, S; Martola, J; Cavallin, L; Granberg, T; Shams, M; Aspelin, P; Wahlund, L O; Kristoffersen-Wiberg, M

2015-06-01

Cerebral microbleeds are thought to have potentially important clinical implications in dementia and stroke. However, the use of both T2* and SWI MR imaging sequences for microbleed detection has complicated the cross-comparison of study results. We aimed to determine the impact of microbleed sequences on microbleed detection and associated clinical parameters. Patients from our memory clinic (n = 246; 53% female; mean age, 62) prospectively underwent 3T MR imaging, with conventional thick-section T2*, thick-section SWI, and conventional thin-section SWI. Microbleeds were assessed separately on thick-section SWI, thin-section SWI, and T2* by 3 raters, with varying neuroradiologic experience. Clinical and radiologic parameters from the dementia investigation were analyzed in association with the number of microbleeds in negative binomial regression analyses. Prevalence and number of microbleeds were higher on thick-/thin-section SWI (20/21%) compared with T2*(17%). There was no difference in microbleed prevalence/number between thick- and thin-section SWI. Interrater agreement was excellent for all raters and sequences. Univariate comparisons of clinical parameters between patients with and without microbleeds yielded no difference across sequences. In the regression analysis, only minor differences in clinical associations with the number of microbleeds were noted across sequences. Due to the increased detection of microbleeds, we recommend SWI as the sequence of choice in microbleed detection. Microbleeds and their association with clinical parameters are robust to the effects of varying MR imaging sequences, suggesting that comparison of results across studies is possible, despite differing microbleed sequences. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

U.S. military service and the prevalence of metabolic syndrome: Findings from a cross-sectional analysis of the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study, 1979-2013.

PubMed

Janak, Jud C; Pérez, Adriana; Alamgir, Hasanat; Orman, Jean A; Cooper, Sharon P; Shuval, Kerem; DeFina, Laura; Barlow, Carolyn E; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee

2017-02-01

U.S. military service confers both health benefits and risks potentially associated with a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors called metabolic syndrome. However, the association between prior military service and metabolic syndrome has not sufficiently been examined. The purpose of the study was to compare the prevalence of metabolic syndrome by prior military service status. Among 42,370 men (887 with prior military service) examined from 1979 to 2013 at the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, TX), we used a cross-sectional study design to examine the association between military service and metabolic syndrome. First, an unadjusted log binomial regression model was performed by regressing the prevalence of metabolic syndrome on prior service. This was followed by performing Kleinbaum's modeling strategy for assessing confounding. The same methodology was used to explore the association between individual metabolic syndrome risk factors and prior service. Prior military service was not significantly associated with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (PR=0.98, 0.89-1.07). None of the variables explored were identified as confounders. Participants with prior military service had lower prevalence of both elevated levels of triglycerides (PR=0.89, 0.80-0.99) and low levels of high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (PR=0.78, 0.70-0.88). They had a higher prevalence of elevated resting systolic blood pressure (PR=1.23, 1.12-1.35). However, none of these associations were significant after adjusting for identified confounders: age; cardiorespiratory fitness; and exam year. Study findings indicate that military service was not independently associated with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome or its components. Future research is warranted longitudinally assessing the impact of military service on long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of insubordinate aggression among captive female rhesus macaques.

PubMed

Seil, Shannon K; Hannibal, Darcy L; Beisner, Brianne A; McCowan, Brenda

2017-11-01

Cercopithicine primates tend to have nepotistic hierarchies characterized by predictable, kinship-based dominance. Although aggression is typically directed down the hierarchy, insubordinate aggression does occur. Insubordination is important to understand because it can precipitate social upheaval and undermine group stability; however, the factors underlying it are not well understood. We test whether key social and demographic variables predict insubordination among captive female rhesus macaques. To identify factors influencing insubordination, multivariate analyses of 10,821 dyadic conflicts among rhesus macaque females were conducted, using data from six captive groups. A segmented regression analysis was used to identify dyads with insubordination. Negative binomial regression analyses and an information theoretic approach were used to assess predictors of insubordination among dyads. In the best models, weight difference (w = 1.0; IRR = 0.930), age (dominant: w = 1.0, IRR = 0.681; subordinate: w = 1.0, IRR = 1.069), the subordinate's total number of allies (w = 0.727, IRR = 1.060) or non-kin allies (w = 0.273, IRR = 1.165), the interaction of the dominant's kin allies and weight difference (w = 0.938, IRR = 1.046), violation of youngest ascendancy (w = 1.0; IRR = 2.727), and the subordinate's maternal support (w = 1.0; IRR = 2.928), are important predictors of insubordination. These results show that both intrinsic and social factors influence insubordinate behavior. This adds to evidence of the importance of intrinsic factors and flexibility in a social structure thought to be rigid and predetermined by external factors. Further, because insubordination can precipitate social overthrow, determining predictors of insubordination will shed light on mechanisms underlying stability in nepotistic societies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Burnout: Job Resources and Job Demands Associated With Low Personal Accomplishment in United States Radiology Residents.

PubMed

Guenette, Jeffrey P; Smith, Stacy E

2018-06-01

We aimed to identify job resources and job demands associated with measures of personal accomplishment (PA) in radiology residents in the United States. A 34-item online survey was administered between May and June 2017 to U.S. radiology residents and included the 8 Likert-type PA questions from the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Human Services Survey, 19 visual analog scale job demands-resources questions, and 7 demographic questions. Multiple linear regression was calculated to predict PA based on job demands-resources. Effects of binomial demographic factors on PA scores were compared with independent-samples t tests. Effects of categorical demographic factors on PA scores were compared with one-way between-subjects analysis of variance tests. A linear regression was calculated to evaluate the relationship of age on PA scores. "The skills and knowledge that I am building are important and helpful to society" (P = 2 × 10 -16 ), "I have good social support from my co-residents" (P = 4 × 10 -5 ), and "I regularly receive adequate constructive feedback" (P = 4 × 10 -6 ) all positively correlated with PA. PA scores were significantly lower for individuals who were single vs those married or partnered (P = .01). Radiology residents score higher in the PA domain of burnout when they receive adequate constructive feedback, have good co-resident social support, and feel that the skills and knowledge they are building are important to society. Improving constructive feedback mechanisms, enabling resident-only social time, and supporting opportunities that reinforce the importance of their contributions may therefore improve radiology residents' sense of PA. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of Discordant Views in the Management of Descending Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm.

PubMed

Chiu, Peter; Sailer, Anna-Margaretha; Baiocchi, Michael; Goldstone, Andrew B; Schaffer, Justin M; Trojan, Jeff; Fleischmann, Dominik; Mitchell, R Scott; Miller, D Craig; Dake, Michael D; Woo, Y Joseph; Lee, Jason T; Fischbein, Michael P

2017-01-01

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair has a lower perceived risk than open surgical repair and has become an increasingly popular alternative. Whether general consensus exists regarding candidacy for either operation among open and endovascular specialists is unknown. A retrospective review of isolated descending thoracic aortic aneurysm at our institution between January 2005 and October 2015 was performed, excluding trauma and dissection. Two cardiac surgeons, 2 cardiovascular surgeons, 1 vascular surgeon, and 1 interventional radiologist gave their preference for open vs endovascular repair. Interobserver agreement was assessed with the kappa coefficient. k-means clustering agnostically grouped various patterns of agreement. The mean rating was predicted using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Negative binomial regression predicted the discrepancy between our panel of raters and the historical operation. Generalized estimating equation modeling was then used to evaluate the association between the extent of discrepancy and the adverse perioperative outcome. There were 77 patients with preoperative imaging studies. Pairwise interobserver agreement was only fair (median weighted kappa 0.270 [interquartile range 0.211-0.404]). Increasing age and proximal neck length predicted an increasing preference for thoracic endovascular aortic repair in our panel; larger proximal neck diameter predicted a general preference for open surgical repair. Increasing proximal neck diameter predicted a larger discrepancy between our panel and the historical operation. Greater discrepancy was associated with adverse outcome. Substantial disagreement existed among our panel, and an exploratory analysis of the effect of increasing discrepancy demonstrated an association with adverse perioperative outcome. An investigation of the effect of a thoracic aortic team with open and endovascular specialists is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.