A bioclimatic approach to predict global regions with suitable climate space for Puccina psidii

Treesearch

J. W. Hanna; R. N. Graca; M. -S. Kim; A. L. Ross-Davis; R. D. Hauff; J. W. Uchida; C. Y. Kadooka; M. B. Rayamajhi; M. Arguedas Gamboa; D. J. Lodge; R. Medel Medel-Ortiz; A. Lopez Ramirez; P. G. Cannon; A. C. Alfenas; N. B. Klopfenstein

2012-01-01

Puccinia psidii, the cause of eucalypt-guava-'ohi'a-myrtle rust, can infect diverse plants within the Myrtaceae, and this rust pathogen has the potential to threaten numerous forest ecosystems worldwide. Known occurrence records from Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Costa Rica, USA (Hawaii, Florida, and Puerto Rico), and Japan were used to develop bioclimatic...

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes; and the introduction of suitable agricultural crops that may be potentially adapted to a warmer climate in the expected steppe and forest-steppe.

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-03-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.

[The comprehensive evaluation of the bioclimatic comfort at the territories of the Russian Far East with reference to winter-time recreational activities and primary wellness tourism].

PubMed

Pestereva, N M; Khechumyan, A F; Vorozbit, N

2018-05-21

in the framework of the current tendency toward the further development of the socio-economic sphere in the Russian Far East (RFE), the relevant investigations aimed at creating the comfortable conditions for recreational and touristic activities as well as for rehabilitative therapy of the local population acquire the increasingly greater importance. The objective of the present study was the comprehensive evaluation of the bioclimatic comfort at the territories of interest with special reference to winter-time recreational activities and primary wellness tourism. This study was designed to evaluate the health resort, recreational, and therapeutic resources of the selected areas of the Russian Far East with special reference to the data provided by the climate monitoring stations during the periods from December to March of 1965-2014. The following methods were used for the purpose: the comparative analysis of climatic information and elementary methods of mathematical statistics. The evaluation of the study territory in terms of the bioclimatic comfort gave evidence that the southern regions of Primorye as well as Sakhalin island, and Kamchatka peninsula provide the most favorable conditions for the therapeutic and recreational activities, leisure and sports in the winter seasons. The analysis of the studied bioclimatic indices of comfort at different territories of the Russian Far East has demonstrated their great potential for the further development of recreation services, rehabilitation, sporting and touristic activities. The study has revealed the new opportunities for the enhancement of bioclimatic comfort of the region and for the improvement of the quality of life and employment of the local population.

VEMAP phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Timothy G.F. Kittel; Nan. A. Rosenbloom; J.A. Royle; C. Daly; W.P. Gibson; H.H. Fisher; P. Thornton; D.N. Yates; S. Aulenbach; C. Kaufman; R. McKeown; Dominque Bachelet; David S. Schimel

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the...

Characterization of potential fire regimes: applying landscape ecology to fire management in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardel, E.; Alvarado, E.; Perez-Salicrup, D.; Morfín-Rios, J.

2013-05-01

Knowledge and understanding of fire regimes is fundamental to design sound fire management practices. The high ecosystem diversity of Mexico offers a great challenge to characterize the fire regime variation at the landscape level. A conceptual model was developed considering the main factors controlling fire regimes: climate and vegetation cover. We classified landscape units combining bioclimatic zones from the Holdridge life-zone system and actual vegetation cover. Since bioclimatic conditions control primary productivity and biomass accumulation (potential fuel), each landscape unit was considered as a fuel bed with a particular fire intensity and behavior potential. Climate is also a determinant factor of post-fire recovery rates of fuel beds, and climate seasonality (length of the dry and wet seasons) influences fire probability (available fuel and ignition efficiency). These two factors influence potential fire frequency. Potential fire severity can be inferred from fire frequency, fire intensity and behavior, and vegetation composition and structure. Based in the conceptual model, an exhaustive literature review and expert opinion, we developed rules to assign a potential fire regime (PFR) defined by frequency, intensity and severity (i.e. fire regime) to each bioclimatic-vegetation landscape unit. Three groups and eight types of potential fire regimes were identified. In Group A are fire-prone ecosystems with frequent low severity surface fires in grasslands (PFR type I) or forests with long dry season (II) and infrequent high-severity fires in chaparral (III), wet temperate forests (IV, fire restricted by humidity), and dry temperate forests (V, fire restricted by fuel recovery rate). Group B includes fire-reluctant ecosystems with very infrequent or occasional mixed severity surface fires limited by moisture in tropical rain forests (VI) or fuel availability in seasonally dry tropical forests (VII). Group C and PFR VIII include fire-free environments that correspond to deserts. Application of PFR model to fire management is discussed.

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-01-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience. PMID:26983802

Achieving Energy Efficiency in Accordance with Bioclimatic Architecture Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajcinovci, Bujar; Jerliu, Florina

2016-12-01

By using our natural resources, and through inefficient use of energy, we produce much waste that can be recycled as a useful resource, which further contributes to climate change. This study aims to address energy effective bioclimatic architecture principles, by which we can achieve a potential energy savings, estimated at thirty-three per cent, mainly through environmentally affordable reconstruction, resulting in low negative impact on the environment. The study presented in this paper investigated the Ulpiana neighbourhood of Prishtina City, focusing on urban design challenges, energy efficiency and air pollution issues. The research methods consist of empirical observations through the urban spatial area using a comparative method, in order to receive clearer data and information research is conducted within Ulpiana's urban blocks, shapes of architectural structures, with the objective focusing on bioclimatic features in terms of the morphology and microclimate of Ulpiana. Energy supply plays a key role in the economic development of any country, hence, bioclimatic design principles for sustainable architecture and energy efficiency, present an evolutive integrated strategy for achieving efficiency and healthier conditions for Kosovar communities. Conceptual findings indicate that with the integrated design strategy: energy efficiency, and passive bioclimatic principles will result in a bond of complex interrelation between nature, architecture, and community. The aim of this study is to promote structured organized actions to be taken in Prishtina, and Kosovo, which will result in improved energy efficiency in all sectors, and particularly in the residential housing sector.

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

PubMed Central

Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

2012-01-01

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change. PMID:23144840

Multivariate Bioclimatic Ecosystem Change Approaches

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-06

course the sandy soils of the Sandhills will not migrate. This observation suggests that a new nomenclature for ecosystems must be developed if...Coast Sandhills. At that time period, not only will the climate be similar, but the soil character will also be similar. Therefore about the year 2115...Disaggregation of global circulation model outputs decision and policy analysis. Working Paper No. 2. Cali, Colombia : International Centre for Tropical

Leapfrogging into new territory: How Mascarene ridged frogs diversified across Africa and Madagascar to maintain their ecological niche.

PubMed

Zimkus, Breda M; Lawson, Lucinda P; Barej, Michael F; Barratt, Christopher D; Channing, Alan; Dash, Katrina M; Dehling, J Maximilian; Du Preez, Louis; Gehring, Philip-Sebastian; Greenbaum, Eli; Gvoždík, Václav; Harvey, James; Kielgast, Jos; Kusamba, Chifundera; Nagy, Zoltán T; Pabijan, Maciej; Penner, Johannes; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Vences, Miguel; Lötters, Stefan

2017-01-01

The Mascarene ridged frog, Ptychadena mascareniensis, is a species complex that includes numerous lineages occurring mostly in humid savannas and open forests of mainland Africa, Madagascar, the Seychelles, and the Mascarene Islands. Sampling across this broad distribution presents an opportunity to examine the genetic differentiation within this complex and to investigate how the evolution of bioclimatic niches may have shaped current biogeographic patterns. Using model-based phylogenetic methods and molecular-clock dating, we constructed a time-calibrated molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the group based on mitochondrial 16S rRNA and cytochrome b (cytb) genes and the nuclear RAG1 gene from 173 individuals. Haplotype networks were reconstructed and species boundaries were investigated using three species-delimitation approaches: Bayesian generalized mixed Yule-coalescent model (bGMYC), the Poisson Tree Process model (PTP) and a cluster algorithm (SpeciesIdentifier). Estimates of similarity in bioclimatic niche were calculated from species-distribution models (maxent) and multivariate statistics (Principal Component Analysis, Discriminant Function Analysis). Ancestral-area reconstructions were performed on the phylogeny using probabilistic approaches implemented in BioGeoBEARS. We detected high levels of genetic differentiation yielding ten distinct lineages or operational taxonomic units, and Central Africa was found to be a diversity hotspot for these frogs. Most speciation events took place throughout the Miocene, including "out-of-Africa" overseas dispersal events to Madagascar in the East and to São Tomé in the West. Bioclimatic niche was remarkably well conserved, with most species tolerating similar temperature and rainfall conditions common to the Central African region. The P. mascareniensis complex provides insights into how bioclimatic niche shaped the current biogeographic patterns with niche conservatism being exhibited by the Central African radiation and niche divergence shaping populations in West Africa and Madagascar. Central Africa, including the Albertine Rift region, has been an important center of diversification for this species complex. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Presence and Potential Distribution of Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Slovenia.

PubMed

Kalan, Katja; Ivovic, Vladimir; Glasnovic, Peter; Buzan, Elena

2017-11-07

In Slovenia, two invasive mosquito species are present, Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1895) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald, 1901) (Diptera: Culicidae). In this study, we examined their actual distribution and suitable habitats for new colonizations. Data from survey of species presence in 2013 and 2015, bioclimatic variables and altitude were used for the construction of predictive maps. We produced various models in Maxent software and tested two bioclimatic variable sets, WorldClim and CHELSA. For the variable selection of A. albopictus modeling we used statistical and expert knowledge-based approach, whereas for A. j. japonicus we used only a statistically based approach. The best performing models for both species were chosen according to AIC score-based evaluation. In 2 yr of sampling, A. albopictus was largely confined to the western half of Slovenia, whereas A. j. japonicus spread significantly and can be considered as an established species in a large part of the country. Comparison of models with WorldClim and CHELSA variables for both species showed models with CHELSA variables as a better tool for prediction. Finally, we validated the models performance in predicting distribution of species according to collected field data. Our study confirms that both species are co-occurring and are sympatric in a large part of the country area. The tested models could be used for future prevention of invasive mosquitoes spreading in other countries with similar bioclimatic conditions. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Large Scale Relationship between Aquatic Insect Traits and Climate.

PubMed

Bhowmik, Avit Kumar; Schäfer, Ralf B

2015-01-01

Climate is the predominant environmental driver of freshwater assemblage pattern on large spatial scales, and traits of freshwater organisms have shown considerable potential to identify impacts of climate change. Although several studies suggest traits that may indicate vulnerability to climate change, the empirical relationship between freshwater assemblage trait composition and climate has been rarely examined on large scales. We compared the responses of the assumed climate-associated traits from six grouping features to 35 bioclimatic indices (~18 km resolution) for five insect orders (Diptera, Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera and Trichoptera), evaluated their potential for changing distribution pattern under future climate change and identified the most influential bioclimatic indices. The data comprised 782 species and 395 genera sampled in 4,752 stream sites during 2006 and 2007 in Germany (~357,000 km² spatial extent). We quantified the variability and spatial autocorrelation in the traits and orders that are associated with the combined and individual bioclimatic indices. Traits of temperature preference grouping feature that are the products of several other underlying climate-associated traits, and the insect order Ephemeroptera exhibited the strongest response to the bioclimatic indices as well as the highest potential for changing distribution pattern. Regarding individual traits, insects in general and ephemeropterans preferring very cold temperature showed the highest response, and the insects preferring cold and trichopterans preferring moderate temperature showed the highest potential for changing distribution. We showed that the seasonal radiation and moisture are the most influential bioclimatic aspects, and thus changes in these aspects may affect the most responsive traits and orders and drive a change in their spatial distribution pattern. Our findings support the development of trait-based metrics to predict and detect climate-related changes of freshwater assemblages.

Assessment of the climatic potential for tourism in Iran through biometeorology clustering.

PubMed

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

2018-04-01

This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of bioclimatic comfort conditions for Iran using mean daily meteorological data from 1995 to 2014, analyzed through Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) indices, and bioclimatic clustering. The results of this study demonstrate that due to the climate variability across Iran during the year, there is at any point in time a location with climatic condition suitable for tourism. Mean values demonstrate maxima in bioclimatic comfort indices for the country in late winter and spring and minima for summer. Seven statistically significant clusters in bioclimatic indices were identified. Comparing these with clustering performed on PET and UTCI, the maximum overlaps between the two indices. In the following, the outputs of this research showed that most appropriate bioclimatic clustering for Iran includes seven clusters. These clustering locations according to climatic suitability for tourism provide a valuable contribution to tourism management in the country, particularly through marketing destinations to maximize tourist flow.

Comparison of Bioclimatic, NDVI and Elevation variables in assessing extent of Commiphora wightii (Arnt.) Bhand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulloli, R. N.; Kumar, S.

2014-11-01

Commiphora wightii (Arnt.) Bhand., is an important medicinal plant of Indian Medicine System (IMS) since ancient time. It is used in different ailments of obesity, arthritis, rheumatism and high cholesterol. Due to overexploitation its natural populations declined to large extent. IUCN has put it under Data Deficient (DD) category due to lack of data on its extent of occurrence in nature. Hence, the study was carried out using MaxEnt distribution modelling algorithm to estimate its geographic distribution and to identify potential habitats for its reintroduction. For modelling employed 68 presence locality data, 19 bioclimatic variables, Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and elevation data. These were tested for multicollinearity and those variables having r-value less than 0.8 were selected for further analysis, which was carried out in two ways i) Bioclimatic variables and elevation; ii) NDVI and elevation. Area Under the Curve (AUC) in both analysis was above 0.9 for all variables, indicating very high accuracy of prediction. Variables governing distribution of C. wightii in the analysis using bioclimatic and elevation data set are precipitation seasonality (56.6 %), annual precipitation (16.4 %) and elevation (14.7 %). Extent of occurrence of C.wightii predicted by model closely matched in the districts of Jaisalmer and Barmer. In the second analysis elevation (48.3 %), NDVI of June (11.1 %) and August (11.2 %) contributed for NDVI and Elevation data set. NDVI of June corresponds to its leafing phase while NDVI of August to flowering phase. Area of its occurrence predicted for NDVI and elevation data set are Bikaner, Churu, Jhunjhunun some part of Jodhpur which are completely sandy, where C. wightii is totally absent. Extent of occurrence was also validated in ground survey. Potential areas for its reintroduction were identified as Jaisalmer and Barmer districts in Indian arid zone.

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

Climatic response variability and machine learning: development of a modular technology framework for predicting bio-climatic change in pacific northwest ecosystems"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.

2015-12-01

The creation and use of large amounts of data in scientific investigations has become common practice. Data collection and analysis for large scientific computing efforts are not only increasing in volume as well as number, the methods and analysis procedures are evolving toward greater complexity (Bell, 2009, Clarke, 2009, Maimon, 2010). In addition, the growth of diverse data-intensive scientific computing efforts (Soni, 2011, Turner, 2014, Wu, 2008) has demonstrated the value of supporting scientific data integration. Efforts to bridge this gap between the above perspectives have been attempted, in varying degrees, with modular scientific computing analysis regimes implemented with a modest amount of success (Perez, 2009). This constellation of effects - 1) an increasing growth in the volume and amount of data, 2) a growing data-intensive science base that has challenging needs, and 3) disparate data organization and integration efforts - has created a critical gap. Namely, systems of scientific data organization and management typically do not effectively enable integrated data collaboration or data-intensive science-based communications. Our research efforts attempt to address this gap by developing a modular technology framework for data science integration efforts - with climate variation as the focus. The intention is that this model, if successful, could be generalized to other application areas. Our research aim focused on the design and implementation of a modular, deployable technology architecture for data integration. Developed using aspects of R, interactive python, SciDB, THREDDS, Javascript, and varied data mining and machine learning techniques, the Modular Data Response Framework (MDRF) was implemented to explore case scenarios for bio-climatic variation as they relate to pacific northwest ecosystem regions. Our preliminary results, using historical NETCDF climate data for calibration purposes across the inland pacific northwest region (Abatzoglou, Brown, 2011), show clear ecosystems shifting over a ten-year period (2001-2011), based on multiple supervised classifier methods for bioclimatic indicators.

Improving the Projections of Vegetation Biogeography by Integrating Climate Envelope Models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Case, M. J.; Kim, J. B.

2015-12-01

Assessing changes in vegetation is increasingly important for conservation planning in the face of climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are important tools for assessing such changes. DGVMs have been applied at regional scales to create projections of range expansions and contractions of plant functional types. Many DGVMs use a number of algorithms to determine the biogeography of plant functional types. One such DGVM, MC2, uses a series of decision trees based on bioclimatic thresholds while others, such as LPJ, use constraining emergent properties with a limited set of bioclimatic threshold-based rules. Although both approaches have been used widely, we demonstrate that these biogeography outputs perform poorly at continental scales when compared to existing potential vegetation maps. Specifically, we found that with MC2, the algorithm for determining leaf physiognomy is too simplistic to capture arid and semi-arid vegetation in much of the western U.S., as well as is the algorithm for determining the broadleaf and needleleaf mix in the Southeast. With LPJ, we found that the bioclimatic thresholds used to allow seedling establishment are too broad and fail to capture regional-scale biogeography of the plant functional types. In response, we demonstrate a new approach to determining the biogeography of plant functional types by integrating the climatic thresholds produced for individual tree species by a series of climate envelope models with the biogeography algorithms of MC2 and LPJ. Using this approach, we find that MC2 and LPJ perform considerably better when compared to potential vegetation maps.

Morphometric analysis and bioclimatic distribution of Glebionis coronaria s.l. (Asteraceae) in the Mediterranean area

PubMed Central

Cano, Eusebio; Musarella, Carmelo Maria; Cano-Ortiz, Ana; Fuentes, José Carlos Piñar; Spampinato, Giovanni; Gomes, Carlos José Pinto

2017-01-01

Abstract We present a revision of Glebionis coronaria in the Mediterranean area based on: a) micro-morphology of the disc floret cypselas observed with a high-resolution confocal microscopy; b) measurements of the disc cypsela with a stereoscopic microscope – duly scaled; c) its distribution in several bioclimatic belts; d) field observations; e) comparisons of herbarium samples. Because of this study, we propose the elevation of Glebionis coronaria var. discolor to the rank of species, as Glebionis discolor comb. & stat. nov., based on morphological and ecological characteristics such as the disposition of the intercostal glands, the size of the disc cypsela wings and its distribution according to the bioclimatic belts. Glebionis coronaria, with totally yellow ray florets and intercostal glands aligned, is exclusive to the thermo-Mediterranean bioclimatic belt, while Glebionis discolor, with white ray florets on a yellow base and intercostal glands arranged randomly, is found in the thermo- and meso-Mediterranean belt. Illustrations of micromorphological characteristics of the cypselas, an identification key, a taxonomic synopsis including information on nomenclatural types, synonyms, descriptions of the taxa, and, as supplementary information, a list of the specimens examined and bioclimatic classification of samples localities are also presented. PMID:28785167

Nestedness in assemblages of helminth parasites of bats: a function of geography, environment, or host nestedness?

PubMed

Warburton, Elizabeth M; Van Der Mescht, Luther; Khokhlova, Irina S; Krasnov, Boris R; Vonhof, Maarten J

2018-05-01

Nested subsets occur in ecological communities when species-poor communities are subsets of larger, species-rich communities. Understanding this pattern can help elucidate species colonization abilities, extinction risks, and general structuring of biological communities. Here, we evaluate nestedness in a poorly studied host-parasite system, bats and their helminths, across the Japanese archipelago and within its different bioclimatic regions. We hypothesized that (1) if helminth communities are nested across geographic sites at the level of the archipelago, then broad-scale processes, like colonization-extinction dynamics, mainly structure parasite assemblages; (2) if helminth communities are nested across geographic sites at the level of the bioclimatic region, then fine-scale environmental variation plays a significant role in species nestedness; (3) if helminth community nestedness mirrors host species nestedness, then communities are nested because the habitats they occupy are nested; and (4) if nestedness does not occur or if it is not correlated with any geographical or host data, then passive sampling could be responsible for the patterns of parasite assemblage in our sample. We found that helminth communities were nested across host species throughout the archipelago but, when considering each bioclimatic region, helminths in only one region were significantly more nested than the null model. Helminth communities were also nested across sites within all four bioclimatic regions. These results suggest that helminths form nested subsets across the archipelago due to broad-scale processes that reflect the overall lineages of their mammalian hosts; however, at the regional scale, environmental processes related to nestedness of their habitats drive parasite community nestedness.

Constraints of Predicting Land Cover Changes from Bioclimatic Models - with Special Regard to Forest Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, C.; Rasztovits, E.

2009-04-01

The determination of "climatic envelopes" of biota and especially of forests has attained a sudden actuality in the context of expected climatic changes, as zonal vegetation types serve as convenient climate indicators. Studies on bioclimatic modelling and on climate change-triggered vegetation shifts are abundant and have been considered also in the fourth report of IPCC. Present and predicted distribution of forest biota provide an illustrative impression of shift of potential land cover changes. There are, however, certain assumptions which remain often unmentioned, and which - if left unconsidered - may compromise the outcome. The bioclimatic models of actual biome or species distributions may be biased, because: (1) Present "natural" vegetation cover types are in most part of the world under strong human influence. In Europe, even the few remaining close to natural landscapes are the results of long lasting human interference of the past which continue also in the present. (2) It is a well known ecological rule that actual ranges of species and biota are regulated by complex, often hidden interactions which may modify distributions. Physiologically (more accurately: genetically) set potential limits may be per definitionem wider than the realized, actual ones. To include extrazonal outliers in bioclimatic models may cause errors. (3) The longevity and persistence of forest trees may be deceptive for climatic modelling at the retreating, xeric limits. The climatic zones move usually faster than the land (forest) cover indicating those zones. (4) Climate envelopes use standard (mean) climate parameters. It is however the effect of the sequence of consecutive extreme weather events and linked biotic damages which will concretely decide over survival or mortality. Therefore the use of climate means should be regarded only as surrogates for weather extremes. (5) The change of climatic environment may alter the phenologic behaviour which cannot be tested in advance. This affects also consuming and pathogenic organisms. Forecasts are unreliable, especially because up to date negligible or unknown pests and diseases may become virulent. Environmental shifts may also lead to changing interactions between hosts and consumers. The described and other factors may lead to overestimate progress at the front, and to possibly too pessimistic forecasts at the retreating (xeric) end of distributions.

Environmental impacts on offspring survival during the lambing period in central Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coronato, F.

Weather conditions are the main factors affecting the survival rate of newborn lambs. In the windy climate of Patagonia, the influence of weather conditions is exacerbated as the wind speed increases noticeably in spring. If the wind increases faster than the temperature rises, wind chill conditions worsen temporarily. This departure from the predictable improvement in bioclimatic conditions as the season moves towards summer may coincide with lambing, if this is not adequately regulated. This paper explores bioclimatic conditions during the 2-month period in which lambing may take place (i.e. mid-September to mid-November), and identifies the unfavourable period that occurs in the second fortnight of October. Starting from the Mount and Brown (Agric Meteorol 27:241-255, 1982) model to assess thermal stress in sheep by means of common meteorological records, a simpler model was developed employing in long-term records. For 2-week averages of temperature (Tf), wind speed (Vf) and total precipitation (Pf), the average heat loss in sheep (HLf) was 40.40-2.07Tf+5.64Vf+0.04Pf. (r2=0.95). A 24-year series of Tf, Vf and Pf data was employed in the calculation of HLf, and results showed this parameter was significantly higher in the second fortnight in October. HLf values were classified into four groups (from ''very good'' to ''very bad'' conditions); once again, significant differences appeared in the second fortnight in October. Finally, HLf during the lambing period was correlated to the percentage of lambs surviving 2 months later. Significant differences between the survival of lambs born under ''very bad'' and ''very good'' conditions were found, but intermediate HLf conditions did not show a clear pattern. The survival rate was best correlated to HLf in the fortnight preceding lambing (P<0.05). This suggests that bioclimatic conditions during late pregnancy are at least as important as conditions during lambing in determining the survival lambs.

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López: A possible case of speciation repressed by bioclimatic factors.

PubMed

de Luis, Miguel; Bartolomé, Carmen; García Cardo, Óscar; Álvarez-Jiménez, Julio

2018-01-01

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López is an allopolyploid species derived from the parental G. struthium L. subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa L. All these plants are gypsophytes endemic to the Iberian Peninsula of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest. In this study, we present evidence of a possible repression on the process of G. bermejoi speciation by climatic factors. We modelled the ecological niches of the three taxa considered here using a maximum entropy approach and employing a series of bioclimatic variables. Subsequently, we projected these models onto the geographical space of the Iberian Peninsula in the present age and at two past ages: the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period. Furthermore, we compared these niches using the statistical method devised by Warren to calculate their degree of overlap. We also evaluated the evolution of the bioclimatic habitat suitability at those sites were the soil favors the growth of these species. Both the maximum entropy model and the degree of overlap indicated that the ecological behavior of the hybrid differs notably from that of the parental species. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the two parental species appear to take refuge in the western coastal strip of the Peninsula, a region in which there are virtually no sites where G. bermejoi could potentially be found. However, in the mid-Holocene period the suitability of G. bermejoi to sites with favorable soils shifts from almost null to a strong adaptation, a clear change in this tendency. These results suggest that the ecological niches of hybrid allopolyploids can be considerably different to those of their parental species, which may have evolutionary and ecologically relevant consequences. The data obtained indicate that certain bioclimatic variables may possibly repress the processes by which new species are formed. The difference in the ecological niche of G. bermejoi with respect to its parental species prevented it from prospering during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the climatic change in the mid-Holocene period released this block and as such, it permitted the new species to establish itself. Accordingly, we favor a recent origin of the current populations of G. bermejoi.

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López: A possible case of speciation repressed by bioclimatic factors

PubMed Central

de Luis, Miguel; García Cardo, Óscar; Álvarez-Jiménez, Julio

2018-01-01

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López is an allopolyploid species derived from the parental G. struthium L. subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa L. All these plants are gypsophytes endemic to the Iberian Peninsula of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest. In this study, we present evidence of a possible repression on the process of G. bermejoi speciation by climatic factors. We modelled the ecological niches of the three taxa considered here using a maximum entropy approach and employing a series of bioclimatic variables. Subsequently, we projected these models onto the geographical space of the Iberian Peninsula in the present age and at two past ages: the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period. Furthermore, we compared these niches using the statistical method devised by Warren to calculate their degree of overlap. We also evaluated the evolution of the bioclimatic habitat suitability at those sites were the soil favors the growth of these species. Both the maximum entropy model and the degree of overlap indicated that the ecological behavior of the hybrid differs notably from that of the parental species. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the two parental species appear to take refuge in the western coastal strip of the Peninsula, a region in which there are virtually no sites where G. bermejoi could potentially be found. However, in the mid-Holocene period the suitability of G. bermejoi to sites with favorable soils shifts from almost null to a strong adaptation, a clear change in this tendency. These results suggest that the ecological niches of hybrid allopolyploids can be considerably different to those of their parental species, which may have evolutionary and ecologically relevant consequences. The data obtained indicate that certain bioclimatic variables may possibly repress the processes by which new species are formed. The difference in the ecological niche of G. bermejoi with respect to its parental species prevented it from prospering during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the climatic change in the mid-Holocene period released this block and as such, it permitted the new species to establish itself. Accordingly, we favor a recent origin of the current populations of G. bermejoi. PMID:29338010

Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic-envelope approach.

PubMed

Notaro, Michael; Mauss, Adrien; Williams, John W

2012-06-01

This study focuses on potential impacts of 21st century climate change on vegetation in the Southwest United States, based on debiased and interpolated climate projections from 17 global climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among these models a warming trend is universal, but projected changes in precipitation vary in sign and magnitude. Two independent methods are applied: a dynamic global vegetation model to assess changes in plant functional types and bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess changes in individual tree and shrub species and biodiversity. The former approach investigates broad responses of plant functional types to climate change, while considering competition, disturbances, and carbon fertilization, while the latter approach focuses on the response of individual plant species, and net biodiversity, to climate change. The dynamic model simulates a region-wide reduction in vegetation cover during the 21st century, with a partial replacement of evergreen trees with grasses in the mountains of Colorado and Utah, except at the highest elevations, where tree cover increases. Across southern Arizona, central New Mexico, and eastern Colorado, grass cover declines, in some cases abruptly. Due to the prevalent warming trend among all 17 climate models, vegetation cover declines in the 21st century, with the greatest vegetation losses associated with models that project a drying trend. The inclusion of the carbon fertilization effect largely ameliorates the projected vegetation loss. Based on bioclimatic envelope modeling for the 21st century, the number of tree and shrub species that are expected to experience robust declines in range likely outweighs the number of species that are expected to expand in range. Dramatic shifts in plant species richness are projected, with declines in the high-elevation evergreen forests, increases in the eastern New Mexico prairies, and a northward shift of the Sonoran Desert biodiversity maximum.

Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices.

PubMed

Blazejczyk, Krzysztof; Epstein, Yoram; Jendritzky, Gerd; Staiger, Henning; Tinz, Birger

2012-05-01

Over the past century more than 100 indices have been developed and used to assess bioclimatic conditions for human beings. The majority of these indices are used sporadically or for specific purposes. Some are based on generalized results of measurements (wind chill, cooling power, wet bulb temperature) and some on the empirically observed reactions of the human body to thermal stress (physiological strain, effective temperature). Those indices that are based on human heat balance considerations are referred to as "rational indices". Several simple human heat balance models are known and are used in research and practice. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the newly developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and some of the more prevalent thermal indices. The analysis is based on three groups of data: global data-set, synoptic datasets from Europe, and local scale data from special measurement campaigns of COST Action 730. We found the present indices to express bioclimatic conditions reasonably only under specific meteorological situations, while the UTCI represents specific climates, weather, and locations much better. Furthermore, similar to the human body, the UTCI is very sensitive to changes in ambient stimuli: temperature, solar radiation, wind and humidity. UTCI depicts temporal variability of thermal conditions better than other indices. The UTCI scale is able to express even slight differences in the intensity of meteorological stimuli.

Ecological niche modeling and land cover risk areas for rift valley fever vector, culex tritaeniorhynchus giles in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Sallam, Mohamed F; Al Ahmed, Azzam M; Abdel-Dayem, Mahmoud S; Abdullah, Mohamed A R

2013-01-01

The mosquito, Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles is a prevalent and confirmed Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) vector. This vector, in association with Aedimorphus arabiensis (Patton), was responsible for causing the outbreak of 2000 in Jazan Province, Saudi Arabia. Larval occurrence records and a total of 19 bioclimatic and three topographic layers imported from Worldclim Database were used to predict the larval suitable breeding habitats for this vector in Jazan Province using ArcGIS ver.10 and MaxEnt modeling program. Also, a supervised land cover classification from SPOT5 imagery was developed to assess the land cover distribution within the suitable predicted habitats. Eleven bioclimatic and slope attributes were found to be the significant predictors for this larval suitable breeding habitat. Precipitation and temperature were strong predictors of mosquito distribution. Among six land cover classes, the linear regression model (LM) indicated wet muddy substrate is significantly associated with high-very high suitable predicted habitats (R(2) = 73.7%, P<0.05). Also, LM indicated that total dissolved salts (TDS) was a significant contributor (R(2) = 23.9%, P<0.01) in determining mosquito larval abundance. This model is a first step in understanding the spatial distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and consequently the risk of RVFV in Saudi Arabia and to assist in planning effective mosquito surveillance and control programs by public health personnel and researchers.

Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional and boradleaf tree species in Utah

Treesearch

N. E. Zimmermann; T. C. Edwards; G. G. Moisen; T. S. Frescino; J. A. Blackard

2007-01-01

Compared to bioclimatic variables, remote sensing predictors are rarely used for predictive species modelling. When used, the predictors represent typically habitat classifications or filters rather than gradual spectral, surface or biophysical properties. Consequently, the full potential of remotely sensed predictors for modelling the spatial distribution of species...

The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees.

PubMed

Deb, Jiban C; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A

2017-04-01

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal ( Shorea robusta ) and Garjan ( Dipterocarpus turbinatus ) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool "MaxEnt" (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.

Agro-ecological class stability decreases in response to climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change will impact bioclimatic drivers that regulate the geospatial distribution of dryland agro-ecological classes (AECs). Characterizing the geospatial relationship between present AECs and their bioclimatic controls will provide insights into potential future shifts in AECs as climate cha...

Population genetic analysis and bioclimatic modeling in Agave striata in the Chihuahuan Desert indicate higher genetic variation and lower differentiation in drier and more variable environments.

PubMed

Trejo, Laura; Alvarado-Cárdenas, Leonardo O; Scheinvar, Enrique; Eguiarte, Luis E

2016-06-01

Is there an association between bioclimatic variables and genetic variation within species? This question can be approached by a detailed analysis of population genetics parameters along environmental gradients in recently originated species (so genetic drift does not further obscure the patterns). The genus Agave, with more than 200 recent species encompassing a diversity of morphologies and distributional patterns, is an adequate system for such analyses. We studied Agave striata, a widely distributed species from the Chihuahuan Desert, with a distinctive iteroparous reproductive ecology and two recognized subspecies with clear morphological differences. We used population genetic analyses along with bioclimatic studies to understand the effect of environment on the genetic variation and differentiation of this species. We analyzed six populations of the subspecies A. striata subsp. striata, with a southern distribution, and six populations of A. striata subsp. falcata, with a northern distribution, using 48 ISSR loci and a total of 541 individuals (averaging 45 individuals per population). We assessed correlations between population genetics parameters (the levels of genetic variation and differentiation) and the bioclimatic variables of each population. We modeled each subspecies distribution and used linear correlations and multifactorial analysis of variance. Genetic variation (measured as expected heterozygosity) increased at higher latitudes. Higher levels of genetic variation in populations were associated with a higher variation in environmental temperature and lower precipitation. Stronger population differentiation was associated with wetter and more variable precipitation in the southern distribution of the species. The two subspecies have genetic differences, which coincide with their climatic differences and potential distributions. Differences in genetic variation among populations and the genetic differentiation between A. striata subsp. striata and A. striata subsp. falcata is correlated with differences in environmental climatic variables along their distribution. We found two distinct gene pools that suggest active differentiation and perhaps incipient speciation. The detected association between genetic variation and environment variables indicates that climatic variables are playing an important role in the differentiation of A. striata. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Nuclear DNA contents of Echinchloa crus-galli and its Gaussian relationships with environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan-Dan; Lu, Yong-Liang; Guo, Shui-Liang; Yin, Li-Ping; Zhou, Ping; Lou, Yu-Xia

2017-02-01

Previous studies on plant nuclear DNA content variation and its relationships with environmental gradients produced conflicting results. We speculated that the relationships between nuclear DNA content of a widely-distributed species and its environmental gradients might be non-linear if it was sampled in a large geographical gradient. Echinochloa crus-galli (L.) P. Beauv. is a worldwide species, but without documents on its intraspecific variation of nuclear DNA content. Our objectives are: 1) to detect intraspecific variation scope of E. crus-galli in its nuclear DNA content, and 2) to testify whether nuclear DNA content of the species changes with environmental gradients following Gaussian models if its populations were sampled in a large geographical gradient. We collected seeds of 36 Chinese populations of E. crus-galli across a wide geographical gradient, and sowed them in a homogeneous field to get their offspring to determine their nuclear DNA content. We analyzed the relationships of nuclear DNA content of these populations with latitude, longitude, and nineteen bioclimatic variables by using Gaussian and linear models. (1) Nuclear DNA content varied from 2.113 to 2.410 pg among 36 Chinese populations of E. crus-galli, with a mean value of 2.256 pg. (2) Gaussian correlations of nuclear DNA content (y) with geographical gradients were detected, with latitude (x) following y = 2.2923*e -(x - 24.9360)2/2*63.79452 (r = 0.546, P < 0.001), and with longitude (x) following y = 2.2933*e -(x - 116.1801)2/2*44.74502 (r = 0.672, P < 0.001). (3) Among the nineteen bioclimatic variables, except temperature isothermality, precipitations of the wettest month, the wettest quarter and the warmest quarter, the others could be better fit with nuclear DNA content by using Gaussian models than by linear models. There exists intra-specific variation among 36 Chinese populations of E. crus-galli, Gaussian models could be applied to fit the correlations of its Nuclear DNA content with geographical and most bioclimatic gradients.

Largest-Crown- Width Prediction Models for 53 Species in the Western United States

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold

2004-01-01

The mean crown diameters of stand-grown trees 5.0-in. dbh and larger were modeled as a function of stem diameter, live-crown ratio, stand-level basal area, latitude, longitude, elevation, and Hopkins bioclimatic index for 53 tree species in the western United States. Stem diameter was statistically significant in all models, and a quadratic term for stem diameter was...

Crown-Diameter Prediction Models for 87 Species of Stand-Grown Trees in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold

2003-01-01

The mean crown diameters of stand-grown trees were modeled as a function of stem diameter, live-crown ratio, stand basal area, latitude, longitude, elevation, and Hopkins bioclimatic index for 87 tree species in the eastern United States. Stem diameter was statistically significant in all models, and a quadratic term for stem diameter was required for some species....

Present, Future, and Novel Bioclimates of the San Francisco, California Region

PubMed Central

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space. PMID:23526985

Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Continental Climate with Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2013-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by their annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P), considered together. The locations or areas of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observational data thus can provide concise metrical standards for simultaneously evaluating climate simulations of T and P in naturally defined regions. The CMIP5 models' collective ability to correctly represent two variables that are critically important for living organisms at regional scales is therefore central to this evaluation. For this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of the 1980-1999 period. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of each vegetation type, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are generally most deficient in simulating: 1) climates of drier Koeppen zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) located in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, eastern Europe, southern Africa, and central Australia; 2) climates of regions such as central Asia and western South America where topography plays a key role. Details of regional T or P biases in selected simulations that exemplify general model performance problems also will be presented. Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Map of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observed T and P.

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.

Prediction of the potential global distribution for Biomphalaria straminea, an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni

PubMed Central

Yang, Ya; Cheng, Wanting; Wu, Xiaoying; Huang, Shaoyu; Deng, Zhuohui; Zeng, Xin; Yang, Yu; Wu, Zhongdao; Chen, Yue; Zhou, Yibiao; Jiang, Qingwu

2018-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease and is endemic in many tropical and subtropical countries. Biomphalaria straminea, an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni, is native to the southeastern part of South America and has established in other regions of South America, Central America and southern China during the last decades. S. mansoni is endemic in Africa, the Middle East, South America and the Caribbean. Knowledge of the potential global distribution of this snail is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, disease prevention and control. Methods and findings A comprehensive database of cross-continental occurrence for B. straminea was compiled to construct ecological models. We used several approaches to investigate the distribution of B. straminea, including direct comparison of climatic conditions, principal component analysis and niche overlap analyses to detect niche shifts. We also investigated the impacts of bioclimatic and human factors, and then used the bioclimatic and footprint layers to predict the potential distribution of B. straminea at global scale. We detected niche shifts accompanying the invasions of B. straminea in the Americas and China. The introduced populations had enlarged its habitats to subtropical regions where annual mean temperature is relatively low. Annual mean temperature, isothermality and temperature seasonality were identified as most important climatic features for the occurrence of B. straminea. Additionally, human factors improved the model prediction (P<0.001). Our model showed that under current climate conditions the snail should mostly be confined to the tropic and subtropic regions, including South America, Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Conclusions Our results confirmed that niche shifts took place in the invasions of B. straminea, in which bioclimatic and human factors played an important role. Our model predicted the global distribution of B. straminea based on habitat suitability, which would help for prioritizing monitoring and management efforts for B. straminea control in the context of ongoing climate change and human disturbances. PMID:29813073

Molecular tools and aspen management: A primer and prospectus

Treesearch

Karen E. Mock; Bryce A. Richardson; Paul G. Wolf

2013-01-01

Aspen (Populus tremuloides) isaniconic species in North American landscapes, highly valued for recreation, fiber, wildlife and livestock forage, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and as a fuelbreak. However, there are rising concerns about the ability of aspen to persist in portions of its range, based on bioclimatic modeling, physiological thresholds and mortality...

[THE FEATURES OF PREVALENCE OF SKIN DISEASE AS AN INDEX OF ECOLOGICALLY RELATED MORBIDITY OF POPULATION IN BIOCLIMATIC ZONES OF PRIMORYE KRAI].

PubMed

Yarygina, M V; Kiku, P F; Gorborukova, T V

2015-01-01

There are presented results of the socio-hygienic analysis of ecologically related skin pathology ofthe population of Primorsky Krai. The aim of the work is to establish the patterns of distribution of ecologically related skin diseases in various ecological bioclimatic zones of Primorsky Krai. There was performed an analysis of skin diseases ofform 12 according to ICD-10 main demographic groups (children, adolescents and adults) of the population of Primorsky Krai, residing in various bioclimatic zones of Krai with different levels of environmental stringency in rural and urban areas for the period of 2000-2013. There were established causal-effect relationships of the prevalence of skin diseases, as ecologically related pathology. The level of the prevalence of skin diseases among the population in the Primorye region depends on bioclimatic zones, the degree of the stringency of the environmental situation and combinations of environmental factors. The prevalence of skin diseases in adults, adolescents and children, as the organism's response to the impact ofthe parameters ofthe environment is affected by the complex offactors, the main of them are hygienic: the sanitary--hygienic level of ambient air pollution, the specification of chemical pollution and adverse physical factors in urban and rural settlements, the characteristics of the state of the soil. The medical-sociological research of the lifestyle of the population was performed on the basis of a specially designed questionnaire. The questionnaire included three arrays of issues: environmental, hygienic and social. On the basis of medical and sociological research with the use of multivariate analysis, method of correlation pleiades advanced by P. V. Terentiev, lifestyle and psycho-emotional factors, socio-hygienic, bioclimatic factors were found to play an important role in the prevalence of ecologically related pathology of skin in residents of Primorsky Krai. Differences in responses between urban and rural residents living in areas with various environmental stringency, confirm the preposition about the ambiguity of the approach to the solution of social, hygienic and environmental problems in areas with different socio-economic situation. The obtained results of the study allow us to determine the main directions of treatment and prevention and to develop targeted prevention programs.

Stream isotherm shifts from climate change and implications for distributions of ectothermic organisms

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Bruce E. Rieman

2013-01-01

Stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate warming because most aquatic organisms are ectothermic and live in dendritic networks that are easily fragmented. Many bioclimatic models predict significant range contractions in stream biotas, but subsequent biological assessments have rarely been done to determine the accuracy of these predictions. Assessments...

Spatial heterogeneity of greening and browning between and within bioclimatic zones in northern West Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, Victoria V.; Esau, Igor

2016-11-01

Studies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have found broad changes in vegetation productivity in high northern latitudes in the past decades, including increases in NDVI (‘greening’) in tundra regions and decreases (‘browning’) in forest regions. The causes of these changes are not well understood but have been attributed to a variety of factors. We use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite data for 2000-2014 and focus on northern West Siberia—a hot spot of extensive landcover change due to rapid resource development, geomorphic change, climate change and reindeer grazing. The region is relatively little-studied in terms of vegetation productivity patterns and trends. This study examines changes between and within bioclimatic sub-zones and reveals differences between forest and treeless areas and differences in productivity even down to the tree species level. Our results show that only 18% of the total northern West Siberia area had statistically significant changes in productivity, with 8.4% increasing (greening) and 9.6% decreasing (browning). We find spatial heterogeneity in the trends, and contrasting trends both between and within bioclimatic zones. A key finding is the identification of contrasting trends for different species within the same bioclimatic zone. Browning is most prominent in areas of denser tree coverage, and particularly in evergreen coniferous forest with dark (Picea abie, Picea obovata) or light (Pinus sylvestris) evergreen and evergreen-majority mixed forests. In contrast, low density deciduous needle-leaf forest dominated by larch (Larix sibirica), shows a significant increase in productivity, even while neighboring different species show productivity decrease. These results underscore the complexity of the patterns of variability and trends in vegetation productivity, and suggest the need for spatially and thematically detailed studies to better understand the response of different northern forest types and species to climate and environmental change.

Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India.

PubMed

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.

Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics for Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2012-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by the observed amplitude and phase of the annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). Koeppen classification thus can provide concise, multivariate metrics for evaluating climate model performance in simulating the regional magnitudes and seasonalities of climate variables that are of critical importance for living organisms. In this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of 1980-1999 climate, a period when observational data provides a reliable global validation standard. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of the vegetation types, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are most deficient in simulating 1) the climates of the drier zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) that are located in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico, Eastern Europe, Southern Africa, and Central Australia, as well as 2) the climate of regions such as Central Asia and Western South America where topography plays a central role. (Detailed analysis of regional biases in the annual cycles of T and P of selected simulations exemplifying general model performance problems also are to be presented.) The more encouraging results include evidence for a general improvement in CMIP5 performance relative to that of older CMIP3 models. Within CMIP5 also, the more complex Earth Systems Models (ESMs) with prognostic biogeochemistry perform comparably to the corresponding global models that simulate only the "physical" climate. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models. PMID:25501852

Bird distributional patterns support biogeographical histories and are associated with bioclimatic units in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Carvalho, Cristiano DE Santana; Nascimento, Nayla Fábia Ferreira DO; Araujo, Helder F P DE

2017-10-17

Rivers as barriers to dispersal and past forest refugia are two of the hypotheses proposed to explain the patterns of biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest. It has recently been shown that possible past refugia correspond to bioclimatically different regions, so we tested whether patterns of shared distribution of bird taxa in the Atlantic Forest are 1) limited by the Doce and São Francisco rivers or 2) associated with the bioclimatically different southern and northeastern regions. We catalogued lists of forest birds from 45 locations, 36 in the Atlantic forest and nine in Amazon, and used parsimony analysis of endemicity to identify groups of shared taxa. We also compared differences between these groups by permutational multivariate analysis of variance and identified the species that best supported the resulting groups. The results showed that the distribution of forest birds is divided into two main regions in the Atlantic Forest, the first with more southern localities and the second with northeastern localities. This distributional pattern is not delimited by riverbanks, but it may be associated with bioclimatic units, surrogated by altitude, that maintain current environmental differences between two main regions on Atlantic Forest and may be related to phylogenetic histories of taxa supporting the two groups.

Bioclimate and city planning - open space planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Elke

The planning and using of open spaces in urban areas very much depend on the shading of the surrounding building structures. This article presents a method for the investigation of the sunlight and the bioclimatic conditions in dependence on the surrounding buildings. It is illustrated for typical courtyards in Berlin, Germany, as one type of open spaces. The programme HelioDat determines the shading of any spot of an open space. It gives the possible duration of direct sunlight for the selected spot for each day of the year. The sunlight conditions in the courtyards differ from one another a lot in dependence on their size the tallness of the surrounding buildings. The calculation of the PMV on the basis of the results of the programme HelioDat determine the bioclimatic situation in the discussed courtyards. Although the results of HelioDat are only one input among the weather conditions and the personal characteristics of the test-person, the bioclimatic conditions correlate very much with the sunlight conditions. In a projected building structure, the sunlight conditions vary a lot between the present situation and the two architectural alternatives. Since the bioclimatic situation is correlated to the sunlight conditions, this example demonstrates the importance for the investigation of the sunlight conditions and the bioclimate already during the planning process of buildings.

Addressing Potential Cumulative Impacts of Development on Threatened Species: The Case of the Endangered Black-Throated Finch

PubMed Central

Vanderduys, Eric Peter; Reside, April E.; Grice, Anthony; Rechetelo, Juliana

2016-01-01

Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development, policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However, developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland's Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted, extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland, Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore, insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning, especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection. PMID:26934622

Bioclimatic models estimate areas with suitable climate for Armillaria spp. in Wyoming

Treesearch

James T. Blodgett; John W. Hanna; Eric W. I. Pitman; Sara M. Ashiglar; John E. Lundquist; Mee-Sook Kim; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ned B. Klopfenstein

2015-01-01

Armillaria species range from beneficial saprobes to damaging root pathogens, and their ecological roles and impacts vary with environment and host. Armillaria solidipes [pending vote to conserve A. ostoyae . (Redhead et al. 2011 )] is known as an aggressive pathogen of conifers and causes tree mortality and significant growth loss in Wyoming and throughout...

Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: an example with Armillaria root disease

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

2009-01-01

Predicting climate change influences on forest diseases will foster forest management practices that minimize adverse impacts of diseases. Precise locations of accurately identified pathogens and hosts must be documented and spatially referenced to determine which climatic factors influence species distribution. With this information, bioclimatic models can predict the...

Long-term landscape changes in a subalpine spruce-fir forest in central Utah, USA

Treesearch

Jesse L. Morris; R. Justin DeRose; Andrea R. Brunelle

2015-01-01

In Western North America, increasing wildfire and outbreaks of native bark beetles have been mediated by warming climate conditions. Bioclimatic models forecast the loss of key high elevation species throughout the region. This study uses retrospective vegetation and fire history data to reconstruct the drivers of past disturbance and environmental change....

Application of Bioclimatic Indexes to the Characterization of the Viticulture Aptitude within the Demarcated Douro Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, M. A.; Monteiro, A.; Rocha, A.; Quenol, H.; de Freita, J. R.

2012-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine the climatic zones in Demarcated Douro Region (DDR), based on meso-climatic analyses for the region. We have used eighteen meteorological stations from very different areas in the region and using the meteorological data we have determined the bioclimatic indexes and afterwards we have created in SIG the representative maps of the areas with different aptitudes for the vineyards.

Irrigation in the arid regions of Tunisia impacts the abundance and apparent density of sand fly vectors of Leishmania infantum

PubMed Central

Barhoumi, Walid; Qualls, Whitney A.; Archer, Reginald; Fuller, Douglas O.; Chelbi, Ifhem; Cherni, Saifedine; Derbali, Mohamed; Arheart, Kristopher L.; Zhioua, Elyes; Beier, John C.

2015-01-01

The distribution expansion of important human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) and sporadic cutaneous leishmaniasis (SCL) vector species, Phlebotomus perfiliewi and P. perniciosus, throughout central Tunisia is a major public health concern. This study was designed to investigate if the expansion of irrigation influences the abundance of sand fly species potentially involved in the transmission of HVL and SCL located in arid bioclimatic regions. Geographic and remote sensing approaches were used to predict the density of visceral leishmaniasis vectors in Tunisia. Entomological investigations were performed in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid, located in the arid bioclimatic region of Tunisia. In 2012, sand flies were collected by CDC light traps located at nine irrigated and nine non-irrigated sites to determine species abundance. Eight species in two genera were collected. Among sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius, P. perfiliewi was the only species collected significantly more in irrigated areas. Trap data were then used to develop Poisson regression models to map the apparent density of important sand fly species as a function of different environmental covariates including climate and vegetation density. The density of P. perfiliewi is predicted to be moderately high in the arid regions. These results highlight that the abundance of P. perfiliewi is associated with the development of irrigated areas and suggests that the expansion of this species will continue to more arid areas of the country as irrigation sites continue to be developed in the region. The continued increase in irrigated areas in the Middle East and North Africa region deserves attention, as it is associated with the spread of L. infantum vector P. perfiliewi. Integrated vector management strategies targeting irrigation structures to reduce sand fly vector populations should be evaluated in light of these findings. PMID:25447265

Topographic and Bioclimatic Determinants of the Occurrence of Forest and Grassland in Tropical Montane Forest-Grassland Mosaics of the Western Ghats, India

PubMed Central

Das, Arundhati; Nagendra, Harini; Anand, Madhur; Bunyan, Milind

2015-01-01

The objective of this analysis was to identify topographic and bioclimatic factors that predict occurrence of forest and grassland patches within tropical montane forest-grassland mosaics. We further investigated whether interactions between topography and bioclimate are important in determining vegetation pattern, and assessed the role of spatial scale in determining the relative importance of specific topographic features. Finally, we assessed the role of elevation in determining the relative importance of diverse explanatory factors. The study area consists of the central and southern regions of the Western Ghats of Southern India, a global biodiversity hotspot. Random forests were used to assess prediction accuracy and predictor importance. Conditional inference classification trees were used to interpret predictor effects and examine potential interactions between predictors. GLMs were used to confirm predictor importance and assess the strength of interaction terms. Overall, topographic and bioclimatic predictors classified vegetation pattern with approximately 70% accuracy. Prediction accuracy was higher for grassland than forest, and for mosaics at higher elevations. Elevation was the most important predictor, with mosaics above 2000m dominated largely by grassland. Relative topographic position measured at a local scale (within a 300m neighbourhood) was another important predictor of vegetation pattern. In high elevation mosaics, northness and concave land surface curvature were important predictors of forest occurrence. Important bioclimatic predictors were: dry quarter precipitation, annual temperature range and the interaction between the two. The results indicate complex interactions between topography and bioclimate and among topographic variables. Elevation and topography have a strong influence on vegetation pattern in these mosaics. There were marked regional differences in the roles of various topographic and bioclimatic predictors across the range of study mosaics, indicating that the same pattern of grass and forest seems to be generated by different sets of mechanisms across the region, depending on spatial scale and elevation. PMID:26121353

Topographic and Bioclimatic Determinants of the Occurrence of Forest and Grassland in Tropical Montane Forest-Grassland Mosaics of the Western Ghats, India.

PubMed

Das, Arundhati; Nagendra, Harini; Anand, Madhur; Bunyan, Milind

2015-01-01

The objective of this analysis was to identify topographic and bioclimatic factors that predict occurrence of forest and grassland patches within tropical montane forest-grassland mosaics. We further investigated whether interactions between topography and bioclimate are important in determining vegetation pattern, and assessed the role of spatial scale in determining the relative importance of specific topographic features. Finally, we assessed the role of elevation in determining the relative importance of diverse explanatory factors. The study area consists of the central and southern regions of the Western Ghats of Southern India, a global biodiversity hotspot. Random forests were used to assess prediction accuracy and predictor importance. Conditional inference classification trees were used to interpret predictor effects and examine potential interactions between predictors. GLMs were used to confirm predictor importance and assess the strength of interaction terms. Overall, topographic and bioclimatic predictors classified vegetation pattern with approximately 70% accuracy. Prediction accuracy was higher for grassland than forest, and for mosaics at higher elevations. Elevation was the most important predictor, with mosaics above 2000 m dominated largely by grassland. Relative topographic position measured at a local scale (within a 300 m neighbourhood) was another important predictor of vegetation pattern. In high elevation mosaics, northness and concave land surface curvature were important predictors of forest occurrence. Important bioclimatic predictors were: dry quarter precipitation, annual temperature range and the interaction between the two. The results indicate complex interactions between topography and bioclimate and among topographic variables. Elevation and topography have a strong influence on vegetation pattern in these mosaics. There were marked regional differences in the roles of various topographic and bioclimatic predictors across the range of study mosaics, indicating that the same pattern of grass and forest seems to be generated by different sets of mechanisms across the region, depending on spatial scale and elevation.

[The characteristics of population health in social ecological conditions of the Primorskiĭ Kraĭ].

PubMed

Iarygina, M V; Kiku, P F; Gorborukova, T V; Iudin, S S

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of sociological survey of residents of different bioclimatic zones of urbanized and rural territories of different bioclimatic zones of the Primorsky Kraiy in municipalities with different demographic, ecological and social characteristics. The analysis of survey data using the technique of P.V. Terentiyev correlation pleiades was applied. The relationship was established between a number of such factors as social industrial environment, ecological condition of territory of residence, life-style and climate with population health.

Modelling the perception of weather conditions by users of outdoor public spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrade, H.; Oliveira, S.; Alcoforado, M.-J.

2009-09-01

Outdoor public spaces play an important role for the quality of life in urban areas. Their usage depends, among other factors, on the bioclimatic comfort of the users. Climate change can modify the uses of outdoor spaces, by changing temperature and rainfall patterns. Understanding the way people perceive the microclimatic conditions is an important tool to the design of more comfortable outdoor spaces and in anticipating future needs to cope with climate change impacts. The perception of bioclimatic comfort by users of two different outdoor spaces was studied in Lisbon. A survey of about one thousand inquires was carried out simultaneously with weather measurements (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar and long wave radiation), during the years 2006 and 2007. The aim was to assess the relationships between weather variables, the individual characteristics of people (such as age and gender, among others) and their bioclimatic comfort. The perception of comfort was evaluated through the preference votes of the interviewees, which consisted on their answers concerning the desire to decrease, maintain or increase the values of the different weather parameters, in order to improve their comfort at the moment of the interview. The perception of the atmospheric conditions and of the bioclimatic comfort are highly influenced by subjective factors, which are difficult to integrate in a model. Nonetheless, the use of the multiple logistic regression allows the definition of patterns in the quantitative relation between preference votes and environmental and personal parameters. The thermal preference depends largely on the season and is associated with wind speed. Comfort in relation to wind depends not only on the speed but also on turbulence: a high variability in wind speed is generally perceived as uncomfortable. It was also found that the acceptability of warmer conditions is higher than for cooler conditions and the majority of people declared preference for lower wind speed in all the seasons. It was observed that adaptive strategies are undertaken to improve their level of comfort, namely through changes in clothing and displacement between shade/sunshine conditions. Older people declared lower discomfort, possibly due to higher clothing insulation and lower climatic sensitivity. The perception of wind is strongly influenced by gender, with women declaring a lower level of comfort when wind speed increases. Other personal characteristics found to have a significant influence were: company - people accompanied declared higher thermal comfort than people alone - and geographic origin, e.g. Brazilian people demonstrated a much lower tolerance to cool conditions than other communities. It should be noted that most Brazilians arrived in Portugal much more recently than, for example, African people, whose responses, in turn, did not reveal a significant difference from the general population, probably due to a certain degree of climatic adaptation already acquired. This study provides a framework to assess the perception of the bioclimatic comfort in outdoor open spaces. Furthermore, it constitutes a potential contribution to the design of more satisfying leisure areas in a future context of warmer cities.

Maximum entropy modeling risk of anthrax in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

PubMed

Abdrakhmanov, S K; Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y Y; Korennoy, F I; Sultanov, A A; Kadyrov, A S; Kushubaev, D B; Bakishev, T G

2017-09-01

The objective of this study was to zone the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) into risk categories according to the probability of anthrax emergence in farm animals as stipulated by the re-activation of preserved natural foci. We used historical data on anthrax morbidity in farm animals during the period 1933 - 2014, collected by the veterinary service of the RK. The database covers the entire territory of the RK and contains 4058 anthrax outbreaks tied to 1798 unique locations. Considering the strongly pronounced natural focality of anthrax, we employed environmental niche modeling (Maxent) to reveal patterns in the outbreaks' linkages to specific combinations of environmental factors. The set of bioclimatic factors BIOCLIM, derived from remote sensing data, the altitude above sea level, the land cover type, the maximum green vegetation fraction (MGVF) and the soil type were examined as explanatory variables. The model demonstrated good predictive ability, while the MGVF, the bioclimatic variables reflecting precipitation level and humidity, and the soil type were found to contribute most significantly to the model. A continuous probability surface was obtained that reflects the suitability of the study area for the emergence of anthrax outbreaks. The surface was turned into a categorical risk map by averaging the probabilities within the administrative divisions at the 2nd level and putting them into four categories of risk, namely: low, medium, high and very high risk zones, where very high risk refers to more than 50% suitability to the disease re-emergence and low risk refers to less than 10% suitability. The map indicated increased risk of anthrax re-emergence in the districts along the northern, eastern and south-eastern borders of the country. It was recommended that the national veterinary service uses the risk map for the development of contra-epizootic measures aimed at the prevention of anthrax re-emergence in historically affected regions of the RK. The map can also be considered when developing large-scale construction projects in the areas comprising preserved soil foci of anthrax. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2010-05-01

Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes under human-induced forcing. As such, it can be a useful tool for viticultural zoning in a changing climate.

The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-Century climate effects on Rocky Mountain trout

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Clint C. Muhlfeld; Andrew S. Todd; Robert Al-Chokhachy; James Roberts; Jeffrey L. Kershner; Kurt D. Fausch; Steven W. Hostetler

2012-01-01

Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs...

Soilscapes in the dynamic tropical environments: The case of Sierra Madre del Sur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasilnikov, P. V.; García-Calderón, N. E.; Ibáñez-Huerta, A.; Bazán-Mateos, M.; Hernández-Santana, J. R.

2011-12-01

The paper gives an analysis of the pattern of soil cover of the Sierra Madre del Sur, one of the most complex physiographic regions of Mexico. It presents the results of the study of four latitudinal traverses across the region. We show that the distribution of soils in the Sierra Madre del Sur is associated with major climatic gradients, namely by vertical bioclimatic zonality in the mountains and by the effect of mountain shadow. Altitudinal distribution of soil-bioclimatic belts is complex due to non-uniform gradients of temperature and rainfall, and varies with the configuration of the mountain range. The distribution of soils is associated with the erosion and accumulation rates both on mountain slopes and in river valleys. The abundance of poorly developed soils in (semi)arid areas was ascribed to high erosion rate rather than to low pedogenetic potential. The formation of soil mosaic at a larger scale might be ascribed to the complex net of gully erosion and to the system of seismically triggered landslides of various ages. In the valleys, the distribution of soils depends upon the dynamics of sedimentation and erosion, which eventually exposes paleosols. Red-colored clayey sediments are remains of ancient weathering and pedogenesis. Their distribution is associated mainly with the intensity of recent slope processes. The soil cover pattern of the Sierra Madre del Sur cannot be explained by simplified schemes of bioclimatic zonality. The soil ranges can be explained by the distribution of climates, lithology, complex geological history of the region, and recent geomorphological processes.

Congenital anomalies in Primorsky region.

PubMed

Kiku, P; Voronin, S; Golokhvast, K

2015-01-01

According to WHO hereditary diseases and congenital malformations contribute significantly to the health of population. Thus, the problems of epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and treatment of congenital abnormalities are of interest for many researchers [2]. In addition, the dynamic accounting for the incidence of congenital malformations and hereditary diseases allows the researchers to assess the ecological situation in the region [1]. The occurrence of congenital anomalies in the world varies; it depends heavily on how carefully the data is collected [4]. Multifactorial or polygenic diseases develop under the influence of environmental factors in the presence of defective genes. They can constitute up to 90% of all chronic pathology [2-5]. To determine the incidence of congenital anomalies under the influence of environmental factors. The study used the methodology of system evaluation of congenital anomalies incidence in Primorsky region, depending on bio-climatic and environmental conditions. The authors used health statistics for the period from 2000 to 2014, F.12 class for congenital abnormalities in adolescents and children that were compared in geographical and temporal aspects with environmental factors of 33 settlements in Primorsky region. The environment is represented by nature and climate (6 factor modules) and sanitation (7 factor modules) blocks of factors. When formalizing the information database of the environment a specially developed 10-point assessment scale was used. Statistical processing of the information was carried out using Pearson's chi-squared test and multiple regression method from SSPS application program package. The study found that over the 15-year period the level of congenital abnormalities in children increased by 27.5% and in adolescents - by 35.1%, and in 2014 it amounted to 1687.6 and 839.3 per 100 000 people, respectively. The predictive model shows a steady further growth of this pathology. The incidence has increased dramatically since 2000. This was due to the beginning of activities of medicogenetic service since 1998: the legal framework and information database were created, the flow of pregnant women was formed actively, and invasive prenatal diagnosis was introduced.Incidence of congenital anomalies has a reliable statistical association (chi-square) with bioclimatic zones and ecological situation. The high level of pathology is observed in both teenagers and children in the critical environmental situation areas, where there are enterprises of coal, mining and chemical industry, ship repair, construction, engineering sites, and areas with intensive chemical use and improvement of agriculture. For the most part these are cities and districts of the region where more than a half of the major manufacturing plants of the 1st and 2nd hazard classes are located. Exceeding the maximum allowable concentrations (MAC) of harmful substances in the air, soil, and water in these areas often reaches tenfold. It should be noted that in the territories with the critical environmental situation a relatively high level of malformations is observed in adolescents in the continental bioclimatic zone, and in children - on the coast, suggesting the influence of different climatic factors. Also a high level of the same congenital anomalies was revealed in children in bioclimatic zones of the coast and transition zones with the intense environmental situation.According to the results of the regression analysis, the varying degrees of influence of ecological and hygienic factors on the incidence of congenital anomalies were determined. In children, up to 77.3% of the spread of pathology depends on the complex of parameters of the environment; the proportion of the influence of sanitary and hygienic indicators is 63.1%, and natural and climatic indicators - 14.2%. Such factors as the characteristics of the soil condition, the level of air pollution, chemical pollution and adverse physical factors in urban and rural settlements, transport load, the presence of hazard-class companies, and observance of sanitary protection zones are of the most significance. The influence of a complex of ecological and hygienic factors on the incidence of pathology in adolescents was 60.0%. The contribution of sanitary and hygienic parameters was 44.5%, and natural and climatic ones - 15.5%. Chemical pollution and adverse physical factors in urban and rural areas, the level of air pollution, traffic loads, and condition of the soil influence the most. Assessing the results of the analysis one should note that the incidence of congenital abnormalities in both children and adolescents depends largely on the same modular sanitary factors, but with varying degrees of influence. At the same time the natural and climatic block of factors has almost the same degree of influence in these age groups. A significant increase of congenital anomalies in children and adolescents is registered in Primorsky Region, and the same is projected for the next 5 years.- The incidence of congenital anomalies in the region depends on bioclimatic zones and ecological situation. The highest level of pathology is observed in children in the coastal bioclimatic zone, and in adolescents, in the continental bioclimatic zone in areas with critical environmental situation.- Varied degree of influence on the level of congenital anomalies by a complex of sanitary and climatic factors is determined. The leading role (44.5-63.1%) belongs to sanitary and hygienic parameters of the life environment.- The results obtained make it possible to develop a set of organizational, diagnostic and treatment, and preventive measures for the correction of health of the population.

Remote Sensing-Based Detection and Spatial Pattern Analysis for Geo-Ecological Niche Modeling of Tillandsia SPP. In the Atacama, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, N.; Siegmund, A.; del Río, C.; Osses, P.; García, J. L.

2016-06-01

In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called `fog oases' dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine (Gulo gulo): do climatic constraints limit its geographic distribution?

Treesearch

J. P. Copeland; K. S. McKelvey; K. B. Aubry; A. Landa; J. Persson; R. M. Inman; J. Krebs; E. Lofroth; H. Golden; J. R. Squires; A. Magoun; M. K. Schwartz; J. Wilmot; C. L. Copeland; R. E. Yates; I. Kojola; R. May

2010-01-01

We propose a fundamental geographic distribution for the wolverine (Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) based on the hypothesis that the occurrence of wolverines is constrained by their obligate association with persistent spring snow cover for successful reproductive denning and by an upper limit of thermoneutrality. To investigate this hypothesis, we developed a composite of MODIS...

Seven-days-ahead forecasting of childhood asthma admissions using artificial neural networks in Athens, Greece.

PubMed

Moustris, Kostas P; Douros, Konstantinos; Nastos, Panagiotis T; Larissi, Ioanna K; Anthracopoulos, Michael B; Paliatsos, Athanasios G; Priftis, Kostas N

2012-01-01

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed and applied in order to predict the total weekly number of Childhood Asthma Admission (CAA) at the greater Athens area (GAA) in Greece. Hourly meteorological data from the National Observatory of Athens and ambient air pollution data from seven different areas within the GAA for the period 2001-2004 were used. Asthma admissions for the same period were obtained from hospital registries of the three main Children's Hospitals of Athens. Three different ANN models were developed and trained in order to forecast the CAA for the subgroups of 0-4, 5-14-year olds, and for the whole study population. The results of this work have shown that ANNs could give an adequate forecast of the total weekly number of CAA in relation to the bioclimatic and air pollution conditions. The forecasted numbers are in very good agreement with the observed real total weekly numbers of CAA.

[The prospects for the development of therapeutic and health-promoting tourism in Gorny Altai].

PubMed

Dzhabarova, N K; Iakovenko, É S; Sidorina, N G; Firsova, I A

2014-01-01

The present balneological survey made it possible to identify the promising areas with a high potential for the health resort, recreational and touristic activities including the foothill, low-mountain, mid-mountain valleys and hollows of Northern, Northwestern, Central and Eastern bioclimatic provinces of Mountainous Altai. Recommendations have been proposed for the development of therapeutic and health-improving tourism in the Shebalinsk, Ust'-Kansk and Ulagansk districts of the Altai Republic.

Bioclimatic distribution and prevalence maps for Fasciola hepatica in Espírito Santo State, Brazil

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Fasciolosis affects different ruminant species and leads to great economic losses for cattle farmers worldwide. Thus, the current study aimed to evaluate bovine fasciolosis prevalence in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, using slaughter maps provided by slaughterhouses and verifying the origin of cattle. Methods A map was created based on analysis of epidemiological data. The ArcGIS/ArcINFO 10.1 software was employed in order to elaborate updated bioclimatic maps that displayed the fasciolosis prevalence within the state – per city– between 2009 and 2011. Results According to the bioclimatic map it was clear that 52.24% of the state’s total area comprise regions considered favorable for the development and survival of Fasciola hepatica. According to the data provided by slaughterhouses, the parasite was more frequent in the cities of Atílio Vivácqua, Itapemirim and Anchieta with respective prevalence of 28.41, 25.50 and 24.95%. Although the northern portion of the state is also favorable for the disease maintenance (reaching rates above 90%), several cities presented prevalence of only 0.99 and 1.94% respectively. These findings indicate that climatic and environmental factors only cannot be considered preponderant to fasciolosis occurrence. Regarding the slaughterhouse located in Anchieta city, the higher prevalence was registered in the cities of Jerônimo Monteiro, Alegre and Cachoeiro de Itapemirim, with mean prevalence of 1.21, 1.07 and 2.09% respectively. Conclusion Although the present findings suggest a pattern for the prevalence of fasciolosis, records of the cities for the occurrence of the disease usually do not reflect the true origin of animals. PMID:25101121

Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain.

PubMed

Gálvez, Rosa; Musella, Vicenzo; Descalzo, Miguel A; Montoya, Ana; Checa, Rocío; Marino, Valentina; Martín, Oihane; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Rinaldi, Laura; Miró, Guadalupe

2017-09-19

The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. The status of flea infestation today is an evident public health concern because of their cosmopolitan distribution and the flea-borne diseases transmission. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Using geospatial tools, models were constructed based on entomological data collected from dogs during the period 2013-2015. Bioclimatic zones, covering broad climate and vegetation ranges, were surveyed in relation to their size. The models builded were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables to show impacts on C. felis infestation prevalence: land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer and autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement and normalized difference vegetation index. In the face of climate change, we also simulated the future distributions of C. felis for the global climate model (GCM) "GFDL-CM3" and for the representative concentration pathway RCP45, which predicts their spread in the country. Predictive models for current climate conditions indicated the widespread distribution of C. felis throughout Spain, mainly across the central northernmost zone of the mainland. Under predicted conditions of climate change, the risk of spread was slightly greater, especially in the north and central peninsula, than for the current situation. The data provided will be useful for local veterinarians to design effective strategies against flea infestation and the pathogens transmitted by these arthropods.

Bioclimatic modeling predicts potential distribution of Armillaria solidipes and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) under contemporary and changing climates in the interior western U.S.A

Treesearch

John Hanna; M. V. Warwell; H. Maffei; M. L. Fairweather; J. T. Blodgett; P. J. Zambino; J. Worrall; K. S. Burns; J. J. Jacobs; S. M. Ashiglar; J. E. Lundquist; M. -S. Kim; Amy Ross-Davis; C. Hoffman; R. Mathiasen; R. Hofstetter; John Shaw; E. W. I. Pitman; E. V. Nelson; Geral I. McDonald; M. R. Cleary; S. Brar; B. Richardson; Ned Klopfenstein

2016-01-01

Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) is a dominant component of forest stands in much of western North America. It is an important tree to the timber industry, yielding more timber than any other species in North America. It is also extremely important for wildlife as habitat and food. Many small birds and mammals feed on its seeds . Armillaria solidipes [...

Use of Bioclimatic Factors to Determine Potential Niche of Vaccinia Virus, an Emerging and Zoonotic Pathogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiner, C. A.; Nakazawa, Y.

2017-12-01

Emerging and understudied pathogens often lack information that most commonly used analytical tools require, such as negative controls or baseline data making public health control of emerging pathogens challenging. In lieu of opportunities to collect more data from larger outbreaks or formal epidemiological studies, new analytical strategies, merging case data with publically available datasets, can be used to understand transmission patterns and drivers of disease emergence. Zoonotic infections with Vaccinia virus (VACV) were first reported in Brazil in 1999, VACV is an emerging zoonotic Orthopoxvirus, which primarily infects dairy cattle and farmers in close contact with infected cows. Prospective studies of emerging pathogens could provide critical data that would inform public health planning and response to outbreaks. By using the location of 87-recorded outbreaks and publicly available bioclimatic data we demonstrate one such approach. Using an Ecological Niche Model (ENM), we identify the environmental conditions under which VACV outbreaks have occurred, and determine additional locations in two affected South American countries that may be susceptible to transmission. Further, we show how suitability for the virus responds to different levels of various environmental factors and highlight the most important climatic factors in determining its transmission. The final ENM predicted all areas where Brazilian outbreaks occurred, two out of five Colombian outbreaks and identified new regions within Brazil that are suitable for transmission based on bioclimatic factors. Further, the most important factors in determining transmission suitability are precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean diurnal range. The analyses here provide a means by which to study patterns of an emerging infectious disease, and regions that are potentially at risk for it, in spite of the paucity of critical data. Policy and methods for the control of infectious diseases often use a reactionary model, addressing diseases only after significant impact on human health has ensued. Here, we provide a means to predict where the disease is likely to appear, providing a map for directed intervention.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

PubMed

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

2017-07-01

Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

Risk zones of human Leishmaniases in the Western Mediterranean basin: correlations between vector sand flies, bioclimatology and phytosociology.

PubMed

Rispail, Philippe; Dereure, Jacques; Jarry, Daniel

2002-06-01

Correspondence analysis was applied to sand fly sampling in 865 stations from the Western Mediterranean basin. The position of each of 24 species was determined with respect to the bioclimatic belts. Thus, the multidimensional analyses manifest clear correlations between bioclimatic belts and their expression in the area, the phytosociological groupings, and vector species of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases. The transfer of these data to usual maps allows to delimit the geographical distribution of these diseases in the Western Mediterranean basin and contributes to the determination, in a rational manner, of the high risk zones.

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2018-03-01

In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.

Impact of urban atmospheric environment on hospital admissions in the elderly.

PubMed

Silva, Edelci Nunes da; Ribeiro, Helena

2012-08-01

To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1ºC decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1ºC increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).

PubMed

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L

2018-03-15

In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermalmore » advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.« less

Uncertainties in climate change projections for viticulture in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Santos, João A.

2013-04-01

The assessment of climate change impacts on viticulture is often carried out using regional climate model (RCM) outputs. These studies rely on either multi-model ensembles or on single-model approaches. The RCM-ensembles account for uncertainties inherent to the different models. In this study, using a 16-RCM ensemble under the IPCC A1B scenario, the climate change signal (future minus recent-past, 2041-2070 - 1961-2000) of 4 bioclimatic indices (Huglin Index - HI, Dryness Index - DI, Hydrothermal Index - HyI and CompI - Composite Index) over mainland Portugal is analysed. A normalized interquartile range (NIQR) of the 16-member ensemble for each bioclimatic index is assessed in order to quantify the ensemble uncertainty. The results show significant increases in the HI index over most of Portugal, with higher values in Alentejo, Trás-os-Montes and Douro/Porto wine regions, also depicting very low uncertainty. Conversely, the decreases in the DI pattern throughout the country show large uncertainties, except in Minho (northwestern Portugal), where precipitation reaches the highest amounts in Portugal. The HyI shows significant decreases in northwestern Portugal, with relatively low uncertainty all across the country. The CompI depicts significant decreases over Alentejo and increases over Minho, though decreases over Alentejo reveal high uncertainty, while increases over Minho show low uncertainty. The assessment of the uncertainty in climate change projections is of great relevance for the wine industry. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial, since different models may lead to quite different outcomes and may thereby be as crucial as climate change itself to the winemaking sector. This work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022692.

Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

2014-05-01

Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable climatic and soil resources. During this century, traditional Siberian crops are predicted to gradually shift northwards and new crops, which are currently non-existent but potentially important in a warmer climate, could be introduced in the extreme south. In a future warmer climate, the economic effect of climate change impacts on agriculture was estimated based on a production function approach and the Ricardian model. The production function estimated climate impacts of temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide levels. The Ricardian model examined climate impacts on the net rent or value of farmland at various regions. The models produced the optimal distribution of agricultural lands between crop, livestock, and forestry sectors to compensate economic losses in forestry in potential landuse areas depending on climatic change.

Wild boar mapping using population-density statistics: From polygons to high resolution raster maps.

PubMed

Pittiglio, Claudia; Khomenko, Sergei; Beltran-Alcrudo, Daniel

2018-01-01

The wild boar is an important crop raider as well as a reservoir and agent of spread of swine diseases. Due to increasing densities and expanding ranges worldwide, the related economic losses in livestock and agricultural sectors are significant and on the rise. Its management and control would strongly benefit from accurate and detailed spatial information on species distribution and abundance, which are often available only for small areas. Data are commonly available at aggregated administrative units with little or no information about the distribution of the species within the unit. In this paper, a four-step geostatistical downscaling approach is presented and used to disaggregate wild boar population density statistics from administrative units of different shape and size (polygons) to 5 km resolution raster maps by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. 1) First a stratification method was used to define homogeneous bioclimatic regions for the analysis; 2) Under a geostatistical framework, the wild boar densities at administrative units, i.e. subnational areas, were decomposed into trend and residual components for each bioclimatic region. Quantitative relationships between wild boar data and environmental variables were estimated through multiple regression and used to derive trend components at 5 km spatial resolution. Next, the residual components (i.e., the differences between the trend components and the original wild boar data at administrative units) were downscaled at 5 km resolution using area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components obtained at 5 km resolution were finally added to generate fine scale wild boar estimates for each bioclimatic region. 3) These maps were then mosaicked to produce a final output map of predicted wild boar densities across most of Eurasia. 4) Model accuracy was assessed at each different step using input as well as independent data. We discuss advantages and limits of the method and its potential application in animal health.

Wild boar mapping using population-density statistics: From polygons to high resolution raster maps

PubMed Central

Pittiglio, Claudia; Khomenko, Sergei

2018-01-01

The wild boar is an important crop raider as well as a reservoir and agent of spread of swine diseases. Due to increasing densities and expanding ranges worldwide, the related economic losses in livestock and agricultural sectors are significant and on the rise. Its management and control would strongly benefit from accurate and detailed spatial information on species distribution and abundance, which are often available only for small areas. Data are commonly available at aggregated administrative units with little or no information about the distribution of the species within the unit. In this paper, a four-step geostatistical downscaling approach is presented and used to disaggregate wild boar population density statistics from administrative units of different shape and size (polygons) to 5 km resolution raster maps by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. 1) First a stratification method was used to define homogeneous bioclimatic regions for the analysis; 2) Under a geostatistical framework, the wild boar densities at administrative units, i.e. subnational areas, were decomposed into trend and residual components for each bioclimatic region. Quantitative relationships between wild boar data and environmental variables were estimated through multiple regression and used to derive trend components at 5 km spatial resolution. Next, the residual components (i.e., the differences between the trend components and the original wild boar data at administrative units) were downscaled at 5 km resolution using area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components obtained at 5 km resolution were finally added to generate fine scale wild boar estimates for each bioclimatic region. 3) These maps were then mosaicked to produce a final output map of predicted wild boar densities across most of Eurasia. 4) Model accuracy was assessed at each different step using input as well as independent data. We discuss advantages and limits of the method and its potential application in animal health. PMID:29768413

Application of agroclimatic indices for viticultural zoning at macroscale level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, H.; Malheiro, A. C.; Santos, J. A.; Pinto, J. G.

2009-09-01

Viticultural zoning not only gives valuable information about the suitability of a particular region for wine production, but also helps in determining the most adequate varieties for a local site, or even to identify constraints for grapevine production. In addition, regarding the socio-economic relevance of this crop in a context of new challenges enforced by a changing climate, a thorough assessment of its potential future adaptation can only be achieved through scientific analyses. The demarcation of new wine regions is also critically dependent on these studies. Therefore, the present research was focused on developing a computer based model of agroclimatic grapevine zoning at a macroclimate (global) scale. For that purpose, several agroclimatic indices (e.g., thermal and heliothermal indices) were calculated worldwide. In fact, agroclimatic indices are widely used when relating the viticultural climate and the elements of grape and wine quality. Their calculation was carried out by, first, using climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation amounts) from the NCEP reanalysis dataset and, second, using data from a general circulation atmospheric model for a specific future emission scenario (A1B). A bioclimatic atlas showing the global fields of the different indices was then produced for two separate recent-past periods (1961-1990 and 1990-2008) and for a future scenario (2030-2050). The comparison between the bioclimatic fields defined for the two different recent-past periods enables the detection of long-term trends, while the comparison of these two periods with the future period allows the isolation of projected changes. Based on the results of these agroclimatic indices and to simplify the analysis, the dimensionality of the problem was reduced by considering a composite index. This provides a macro-characterization of worldwide areas where this crop may preferentially grow, as well as an identification of likely changes under human-induced forcing. As such, it can be a useful tool for viticultural zoning under a climate change scenario, also giving an important contribution for the development of adaptation and mitigation measures in current wine regions, in some cases already struggling due to recent climate variability.

Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution using maximum entropy.

PubMed

Nazeri, Mona; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman; Madani, Nima; Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Bahman, Abdul Rani; Kumar, Lalit

2012-01-01

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear's population.

Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) Distribution Using Maximum Entropy

PubMed Central

Nazeri, Mona; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman; Madani, Nima; Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Bahman, Abdul Rani; Kumar, Lalit

2012-01-01

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear’s population. PMID:23110182

Mentha suaveolens Ehrh. Chemotypes in Eastern Iberian Peninsula: Essential Oil Variation and Relation with Ecological Factors.

PubMed

Llorens-Molina, Juan Antonio; Rivera Seclén, Cynthia Fiorella; Vacas Gonzalez, Sandra; Boira Tortajada, Herminio

2017-12-01

Essential oil (EO) extracts coming from two representative populations of Mentha suaveolens Ehrh. subesp. suaveolens in Eastern Iberian Peninsula were analyzed by gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry and flame ion detector. Plant sampling was carried out in the morning and evening in order to study diurnal variation in EO profiles. Likewise, leaves and inflorescences were analyzed separately. Two chemotypes corresponding to each one of the populations were identified, with piperitenone oxide (35.2 - 74.3%) and piperitone oxide (83.9 - 91.3%), respectively, as major compounds. Once different chemotypes were identified, canonical correspondence analysis was employed to evaluate the effect of the bioclimatic and edaphic factors recorded in each location on the observed differences. Statistical analysis suggested that these chemotypes were closely related to specific environmental factors, mainly the bioclimatic ones. Concretely, piperitenone oxide chemotype can be associated to supramediterranean bioclimatic conditions and soils with major salinity and water field capacity. On the other hand, the most volatile fraction (hydrocarbon monoterpenes) reached its higher level in the morning; specifically, a noticeable amount of limonene was found in morning samples of flowers (4.8 - 10.6%). This fact can be related to ecological role of volatile compounds in order to attract pollinator insects. © 2017 Wiley-VHCA AG, Zurich, Switzerland.

Seroprevalence of Toscana virus infection in Tunisia.

PubMed

Fezaa, Ons; Bahri, Olfa; Alaya Bouafif, Nissaf Ben; Triki, Henda; Bouattour, Ali

2013-12-01

The main objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of IgG antibodies against Toscana virus (TOSV) by an ELISA test and to determine the extent of its circulation in Tunisia. An indirect ELISA test was performed to detect anti-TOSV IgG. The results were compared to those of an indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) test. The survey tested 494 healthy people from various regions of Tunisia by ELISA for anti-TOSV IgG; 47 people (9.5%) were found to be positive. Seroprevalence varied by bioclimatic region and gender. Two hundred and twelve samples, randomly chosen from the same selected population and tested with ELISA, were retested using an IFA for IgG antibodies. An 85% concordance between the IFA and ELISA was obtained (kappa=0.650). These serological data confirm the circulation of TOSV in different bioclimatic zones in Tunisia where the vector sand flies are found. The detection of IgG against TOSV suggests that the diagnosis of TOSV infection is often neglected, as this virus often causes asymptomatic infections, with only a few patients developing severe illnesses involving neurological manifestations. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calibration and Validation of Tundra Plant Functional Type Fractional Cover Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macander, M. J.; Nelson, P.; Frost, G. V., Jr.

2017-12-01

Fractional cover maps are being developed for selected tundra plant functional types (PFTs) across >500,000 sq. km of arctic Alaska and adjacent Canada at 30 m resolution. Training and validation data include a field-based training dataset based on point-intercept sampling method at hundreds of plots spanning bioclimatic and geomorphic gradients. We also compiled 50 blocks of 1-5 cm resolution RGB image mosaics in Alaska (White Mountains, North Slope, and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta) and the Yukon Territory. The mosaics and associated surface and canopy height models were developed using a consumer drone and structure from motion processing. We summarized both the in situ measurements and drone imagery to determine cover of two PFTs: Low and Tall Deciduous Shrub, and Light Fruticose/Foliose Lichen. We applied these data to train 2 m (limited extent) and 30 m (wall to wall) maps of PFT fractional cover for shrubs and lichen. Predictors for 2 m models were commercial satellite imagery such as WorldView-2 and Worldview-3, analyzed on the ABoVE Science Cloud. Predictors for 30 m models were primarily reflectance composites and spectral metrics developed from Landsat imagery, using Google Earth Engine. We compared the performance of models developed from the in situ and drone-derived training data and identify best practices to improve the performance and efficiency of arctic PFT fractional cover mapping.

Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

PubMed

Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

2017-07-01

The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Thermal Band Analysis of Agricultural Land Use and its Effects on Bioclimatic Comfort: The Case of Pasinler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avdan, Uǧur; Demircioglu Yildiz, Nalan; Dagliyar, Ayse; Yigit Avdan, Zehra; Yilmaz, Sevgi

2014-05-01

Resolving the problems that arise due to the land use are not suitable for the purpose in the rural and urban areas most suitable for land use of parameters to be determined. Unintended and unplanned developments in the use of agricultural land in our country caused increases the losses by soil erosion. In this study, Thermal Band analysis is made in Pasinler city center with the aim of identifying bioclimatic comfort values of the different agricultural area. Satellite images can be applied for assessing the thermal urban environment as well as for defining heat islands in agricultural areas. In this context, temperature map is tried to be produced with land surface temperature (LST) analysis made on Landsat TM5 satellite image. The Landsat 5 images was obtained from USGS for the study area. Using Landsat bands of the study area was mapped by supervised classification with the maximum likelihood classification algorithm of ERDAS imagine 2011 software. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image was produced by using Landsat images. The digital number of the Landsat thermal infrared band (10.40 - 12.50 µm) is converted to the spectral radiance. The surface emissivity was calculated by using NDVI. The spatial pattern of land surface temperature in the study area is taken to characterize their local effects on agricultural land. Areas having bioclimatic comfort and ecologically urbanized, are interpreted with different graphical presentation technics. The obtained results are important because they create data bases for sustainable urban planning and provide a direction for planners and governors. As a result of rapid changes in land use, rural ecosystems and quality of life are deteriorated and decreased. In the presence of increased building density, for the comfortable living of people natural and cultural resources should be analyzed in detail. For that reason, optimal land use planning should be made in rural area.

A statistical approach to bioclimatic trend detection in the airborne pollen records of Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Belmonte, Jordina; Delgado, Rosario; De Linares, Concepción

2014-04-01

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health.

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change.

PubMed

Brook, Barry W; Akçakaya, H Resit; Keith, David A; Mace, Georgina M; Pearson, Richard G; Araújo, Miguel B

2009-12-23

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25-29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

PubMed

Dyderski, Marcin K; Paź, Sonia; Frelich, Lee E; Jagodziński, Andrzej M

2018-03-01

Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

PubMed

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

The role of climate in the global patterns of ecosystem carbon turnover rates - contrasts between data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, N.; Forkel, M.; Khomik, M.; Bellarby, J.; Migliavacca, M.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Jung, M.; Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; Saatchi, S. S.; Santoro, M.; Reichstein, M.

2012-12-01

The turnover rates of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and their sensitivity to climate are instrumental properties for diagnosing the interannual variability and forecasting trends of biogeochemical processes and carbon-cycle-climate feedbacks. We propose to globally look at the spatial distribution of turnover rates of carbon to explore the association between bioclimatic regimes and the rates at which carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Based on data-driven approaches of ecosystem carbon fluxes and data-based estimates of ecosystem carbon stocks it is possible to build fully observationally supported diagnostics. These data driven diagnostics support the benchmarking of CMIP5 model outputs (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) with observationally based estimates. The models' performance is addressed by confronting spatial patterns of carbon fluxes and stocks with data, as well as the global and regional sensitivities of turnover rates to climate. Our results show strong latitudinal gradients globally, mostly controlled by temperature, which are not always paralleled by CMIP5 simulations. In northern colder regions is also where the largest difference in temperature sensitivity between models and data occurs. Interestingly, there seem to be two different statistical populations in the data (some with high, others with low apparent temperature sensitivity of carbon turnover rates), where the different models only seem to describe either one or the other population. Additionally, the comparisons within bioclimatic classes can even show opposite patterns between turnover rates and temperature in water limited regions. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the role of finding patterns and intrinsic properties instead of plain magnitudes of fluxes for diagnosing the sensitivities of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to climate. Further, our regional analysis suggests a significant gap in addressing the partial influence of water in the ecosystem carbon turnover rates especially in very cold or water limited regions.

Macroevolutionary patterns of ultraviolet floral pigmentation explained by geography and associated bioclimatic factors.

PubMed

Koski, Matthew H; Ashman, Tia-Lynn

2016-07-01

Selection driven by biotic interactions can generate variation in floral traits. Abiotic selection, however, also contributes to floral diversity, especially with respect to patterns of pigmentation. Combining comparative studies of floral pigmentation and geography can reveal the bioclimatic factors that may drive macroevolutionary patterns of floral color. We create a molecular phylogeny and measure ultraviolet (UV) floral pattern for 177 species in the Potentilleae tribe (Rosaceae). Species are similar in flower shape and visible color but vary in UV floral pattern. We use comparative approaches to determine whether UV pigmentation variation is associated with geography and/or bioclimatic features (UV-B, precipitation, temperature). Floral UV pattern was present in half of the species, while others were uniformly UV-absorbing. Phylogenetic signal was detected for presence/absence of pattern, but among patterned species, quantitative variation in UV-absorbing area was evolutionarily labile. Uniformly UV-absorbing species tended to experience higher UV-B irradiance. Patterned species occurring at higher altitudes had larger UV-absorbing petal areas, corresponding with low temperature and high UV exposure. This analysis expands our understanding of the covariation of UV-B irradiance and UV floral pigmentation from within species to that among species, and supports the view that abiotic selection is associated with floral diversification among species. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Remote Sensing Contributions to Prediction and Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Caused by Large Scale Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer; Britch, S. C.; Tucker, C. J.

2012-01-01

Remotely sensed vegetation measurements for the last 30 years combined with other climate data sets such as rainfall and sea surface temperatures have come to play an important role in the study of the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases. We show that epidemics and epizootics of previously unpredictable Rift Valley fever are directly influenced by large scale flooding associated with the El Ni o/Southern Oscillation. This flooding affects the ecology of disease transmitting arthropod vectors through vegetation development and other bioclimatic factors. This information is now utilized to monitor, model, and map areas of potential Rift Valley fever outbreaks and is used as an early warning system for risk reduction of outbreaks to human and animal health, trade, and associated economic impacts. The continuation of such satellite measurements is critical to anticipating, preventing, and managing disease epidemics and epizootics and other climate-related disasters.

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

PubMed Central

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W. Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions. PMID:25874407

Intraspecific variation in the energetics of the Cabrera vole.

PubMed

Castellanos-Frías, Elena; García-Perea, Rosa; Gisbert, Julio; Bozinovic, Francisco; Virgós, Emilio

2015-12-01

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an intensively topic studied in ecophysiology for the purpose of understanding energy budgets of the species, variations of energy expenditure during their diary activities and physiological acclimatization to the environment. Establishing how the metabolism is assembled to the environment can provide valuable data to improve conservation strategies of endangered species. In this sense, metabolic differences associated to habitats have been widely reported in the interspecific level, however little is known about the intraspecific view of BMR under an environmental gradient. In this study, we researched the effect of the habitat on metabolic rate of an Iberian endemic species: Iberomys cabrerae. Animals were captured in different subpopulations of its altitudinal range and their MR was studied over a thermal gradient. MR was analyzed through a Linear Mixed Model (LMM) in which, in addition to thermal effects, the bioclimatic zone and sex also influenced the metabolism of the species. The beginning of thermoneutrality zone was set on 26.5°C and RMR was 2.3ml O2g(-1)h(-1), intermediate between both bioclimatic zones. Supramediterranean subpopulations started the Tlc earlier (24.9°C) and had higher RMR than the mesomediterranean ones (26.9°C). The thermal environment together with primary productivity conditions could explain this difference in the metabolic behaviour of the Cabrera voles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatic changes, bioclimatic stages and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-12-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications related to public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable for predestinate pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned to favorable ecological habitats, flooded areas extent and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations in relation with actual climat. We have refine mediterranean spatial knowledge in mediterranean basin with actual data. We show evolution of climat and consequences for bioclimatic stages, using world clim data and IPCC scenarii. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects birds, horses and hands up to men (e.g.West Nile virus appeared in 1999 in USA, between 1999 and 2007 : 27 000 human cases including 1 050 deaths). Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it’s possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Topographic, bioclimatic, and vegetation characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems in North America: Comparisons along continent-wide transects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Shafer, S.L.; Anderson, K.H.; Strickland, L.E.; Pelltier, R.T.; Bartlein, P.J.; Kerwin, M.W.

2005-01-01

Ecoregion classification systems are increasingly used for policy and management decisions, particularly among conservation and natural resource managers. A number of ecoregion classification systems are currently available, with each system defining ecoregions using different classification methods and different types of data. As a result, each classification system describes a unique set of ecoregions. To help potential users choose the most appropriate ecoregion system for their particular application, we used three latitudinal transects across North America to compare the boundaries and environmental characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems [Ku??chler, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and Bailey]. A variety of variables were used to evaluate the three systems, including woody plant species richness, normalized difference in vegetation index (NDVI), and bioclimatic variables (e.g., mean temperature of the coldest month) along each transect. Our results are dominated by geographic patterns in temperature, which are generally aligned north-south, and in moisture, which are generally aligned east-west. In the west, the dramatic changes in physiography, climate, and vegetation impose stronger controls on ecoregion boundaries than in the east. The Ku??chler system has the greatest number of ecoregions on all three transects, but does not necessarily have the highest degree of internal consistency within its ecoregions with regard to the bioclimatic and species richness data. In general, the WWF system appears to track climatic and floristic variables the best of the three systems, but not in all regions on all transects. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Modeling potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus) reservoir, in Argentina.

PubMed

Andreo, Verónica; Glass, Gregory; Shields, Timothy; Provensal, Cecilia; Polop, Jaime

2011-09-01

We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans.

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-09-22

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Comparing mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling the thermal niche of almond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Lauren E.; Abatzoglou, John T.

2017-09-01

Delineating locations that are thermally viable for cultivating high-value crops can help to guide land use planning, agronomics, and water management. Three modeling approaches were used to identify the potential distribution and key thermal constraints on on almond cultivation across the southwestern United States (US), including two empirical species distribution models (SDMs)—one using commonly used bioclimatic variables (traditional SDM) and the other using more physiologically relevant climate variables (nontraditional SDM)—and a mechanistic model (MM) developed using published thermal limitations from field studies. While models showed comparable results over the majority of the domain, including over existing croplands with high almond density, the MM suggested the greatest potential for the geographic expansion of almond cultivation, with frost susceptibility and insufficient heat accumulation being the primary thermal constraints in the southwestern US. The traditional SDM over-predicted almond suitability in locations shown by the MM to be limited by frost, whereas the nontraditional SDM showed greater agreement with the MM in these locations, indicating that incorporating physiologically relevant variables in SDMs can improve predictions. Finally, opportunities for geographic expansion of almond cultivation under current climatic conditions in the region may be limited, suggesting that increasing production may rely on agronomical advances and densifying current almond plantations in existing locations.

Habitat Fragmentation can Modulate Drought Effects on the Plant-soil-microbial System in Mediterranean Holm Oak (Quercus ilex) Forests.

PubMed

Flores-Rentería, Dulce; Curiel Yuste, Jorge; Rincón, Ana; Brearley, Francis Q; García-Gil, Juan Carlos; Valladares, Fernando

2015-05-01

Ecological transformations derived from habitat fragmentation have led to increased threats to above-ground biodiversity. However, the impacts of forest fragmentation on soils and their microbial communities are not well understood. We examined the effects of contrasting fragment sizes on the structure and functioning of soil microbial communities from holm oak forest patches in two bioclimatically different regions of Spain. We used a microcosm approach to simulate the annual summer drought cycle and first autumn rainfall (rewetting), evaluating the functional response of a plant-soil-microbial system. Forest fragment size had a significant effect on physicochemical characteristics and microbial functioning of soils, although the diversity and structure of microbial communities were not affected. The response of our plant-soil-microbial systems to drought was strongly modulated by the bioclimatic conditions and the fragment size from where the soils were obtained. Decreasing fragment size modulated the effects of drought by improving local environmental conditions with higher water and nutrient availability. However, this modulation was stronger for plant-soil-microbial systems built with soils from the northern region (colder and wetter) than for those built with soils from the southern region (warmer and drier) suggesting that the responsiveness of the soil-plant-microbial system to habitat fragmentation was strongly dependent on both the physicochemical characteristics of soils and the historical adaptation of soil microbial communities to specific bioclimatic conditions. This interaction challenges our understanding of future global change scenarios in Mediterranean ecosystems involving drier conditions and increased frequency of forest fragmentation.

Distribution of greenhouse gases in hyper-arid and arid areas of northern Chile and the contribution of the high altitude wetland microbiome (Salar de Huasco, Chile).

PubMed

Molina, Verónica; Eissler, Yoanna; Cornejo, Marcela; Galand, Pierre E; Dorador, Cristina; Hengst, Martha; Fernandez, Camila; Francois, Jean Pierre

2018-04-06

Northern Chile harbors different bioclimatic zones including hyper-arid and arid ecosystems and hotspots of microbial life, such as high altitude wetlands, which may contribute differentially to greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). In this study, we explored ground level GHG distribution and the potential role of a wetland situated at 3800 m.a.s.l, and characterized by high solar radiation < 1600 W m -2 , extreme temperature ranges (-12 to 24 °C) and wind stress (< 17 m s -1 ). The water source of the wetland is mainly groundwater springs, which generates streams and ponds surrounded by peatlands. These sites support a rich microbial aquatic life including diverse bacteria and archaea communities, which transiently form more complex structures, such as microbial mats. In this study, GHG were measured in the water and above ground level air at the wetland site and along an elevation gradient in different bioclimatic areas from arid to hyper-arid zones. The microbiome from the water and sediments was described by high-throughput sequencing 16S rRNA and rDNA genes. The results indicate that GHG at ground level were variable along the elevation gradient potentially associated with different bioclimatic zones, reaching high values at the high Andean steppe and variable but lower values in the Atacama Desert and at the wetland. The water areas of the wetland presented high concentrations of CH 4 and CO 2 , particularly at the spring areas and in air bubbles below microbial mats. The microbial community was rich (> 40 phyla), including archaea and bacteria potentially active in the different matrices studied (water, sediments and mats). Functional microbial groups associated with GHG recycling were detected at low frequency, i.e., < 2.5% of total sequences. Our results indicate that hyper-arid and arid areas of northern Chile are sites of GHG exchange associated with various bioclimatic zones and particularly in aquatic areas of the wetland where this ecosystem could represent a net sink of N 2 O and a source for CH 4 and CO 2 .

[On the development of a system of medical weather forecast for the Caucasian Mineral Waters spa-and-resort complex].

PubMed

Povolotskaia, N P; Efimova, N V; Zherlitsina, L I; Kirilenko, A A; Kortunova, Z V; Golitsin, G S; Senik, I A; Rubinshteĭn, K G

2010-01-01

A system of medical weather forecast for the Caucasian Mineral Waters spa-and-resort complex has been modified and updated based on the results of long-term observations of weather conditions in the region of interest with special reference to the bioclimatic regime, atmospheric circulation, aerosol pollution of the near-ground air, ultraviolet radiation, heliomagnetic activity, and meteopathic effects. This system provides a basis for the timely emergency meteopreventive treatment of meteodependent patients and therefore can be instrumental in enhancing efficiency of spa-and-resort rehabilitative therapy.

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

2017-11-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Species delimitation: A case study in a problematic ant taxon

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Species delimitation has been invigorated as a discipline in systematics by an influx of new character sets, analytical methods, and conceptual advances. We use genetic data from 68 markers, combined with distributional, bioclimatic, and coloration information, to distinguish evolutionarily indepe...

Landscape Characterization and Representativeness Analysis for Understanding Sampling Network Coverage

DOE Data Explorer

Maddalena, Damian; Hoffman, Forrest; Kumar, Jitendra; Hargrove, William

2014-08-01

Sampling networks rarely conform to spatial and temporal ideals, often comprised of network sampling points which are unevenly distributed and located in less than ideal locations due to access constraints, budget limitations, or political conflict. Quantifying the global, regional, and temporal representativeness of these networks by quantifying the coverage of network infrastructure highlights the capabilities and limitations of the data collected, facilitates upscaling and downscaling for modeling purposes, and improves the planning efforts for future infrastructure investment under current conditions and future modeled scenarios. The work presented here utilizes multivariate spatiotemporal clustering analysis and representativeness analysis for quantitative landscape characterization and assessment of the Fluxnet, RAINFOR, and ForestGEO networks. Results include ecoregions that highlight patterns of bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables and quantitative representativeness maps of individual and combined networks.

Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangermano, Florencia

2009-12-01

The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this methodology to redefine species ranges in a more biophysically reasonable way. If a specific variable is important for a species, a change in that variable is likely to impact the species. Chapter 3 presents a methodology to identify the impact of environmental changes on 6362 species of mammals, amphibians and birds of South America, based on per-species measures of sensitivity, marginality, range restriction and trends in remotely sensed bioclimatic variables. Maps of the impact of environmental changes on vertebrates of South America were generated, with the Andes, Patagonia and the Atlantic Forest experiencing the strongest impact of environmental change in this over the past quarter century. Contributions of this dissertation include the development of new range polygons for all mammals, amphibians and birds of South America, as well as a methodology to re-draw the polygons in any other region of the world. This dataset is essential for both biodiversity analysis and conservation prioritization. Other contributions are the generation of maps of impact of global change on biodiversity, together with a framework for the development and updating of those maps. Conservation and monitoring agencies will find this research useful not only for the selection of new conservation areas but also for prioritizing areas for field monitoring.

Bioclimatic comfort and the thermal perceptions and preferences of beach tourists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutty, Michelle; Scott, Daniel

2015-01-01

The largest market segment of global tourism is coastal tourism, which is strongly dependent on the destination's thermal climate. To date, outdoor bioclimatic comfort assessments have focused exclusively on local residents in open urban areas, making it unclear whether outdoor comfort is perceived differently in non-urban environments or by non-residents (i.e. tourists) with different weather expectations and activity patterns. This study provides needed insight into the perception of outdoor microclimatic conditions in a coastal environment while simultaneously identifying important psychological factors that differentiate tourists from everyday users of urban spaces. Concurrent micrometeorological measurements were taken on several Caribbean beaches in the islands of Barbados, Saint Lucia and Tobago, while a questionnaire survey was used to examine the thermal comfort of subjects ( n = 472). Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) conditions of 32 to 39 °C were recorded, which were perceived as being "slightly warm" or "warm" by respondents. Most beach users (48 to 77 %) would not change the thermal conditions, with some (4 to 15 %) preferring even warmer conditions. Even at UTCI of 39 °C, 62 % of respondents voted for no change to current thermal conditions, with an additional 10 % stating that they would like to feel even warmer. These results indicate that beach users' thermal preferences are up to 18 °C warmer than the preferred thermal conditions identified in existing outdoor bioclimatic studies from urban park settings. This indicates that beach users hold fundamentally different comfort perceptions and preferences compared to people using urban spaces. Statistically significant differences ( p ≤ .05) were also recorded for demographic groups (gender, age) and place of origin (climatic region).

The relationship between thermal sensation and the rate of hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease in Kermanshah, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Bakhtiyar; Karimi, Shilan

2017-11-01

Climate and weather conditions are the most important factors that influence activities and human health. Bioclimatology/biometeorology are concerned with the study of weather effects on living creatures, including humans, plants, and animals. This research was prepared in order to understand the bioclimatic condition of Kermanshah and its relation to the level of hospital admissions of cardiovascular patients in this city. In addition to the climatic variables, the statistics on the number of daily admissions of cardiovascular patients in Kermanshah during March 27, 2009 to April 30, 2015 was prepared. First, Kermanshah's bioclimatic conditions were identified on a daily basis. Then, the relationship between each of the thermal sensations with the level of hospital admissions of cardiovascular patients in Kermanshah using Levene's test, univariate analysis of variance (ANOVA), Scheffe and Games-Howell post hoc tests was investigated. The results of this study showed that in each index, only very few bioclimatic conditions have had an impact on the increase of hospital admissions of cardiovascular diseases. For example, based on the equivalent temperature index (Tek or EqT), there is a significant relationship between extreme conditions and the rate of cardiovascular admissions. But, however, in the effective temperature index (TE), a significant correlation between warm/hot conditions and an increase in the number of cardiovascular admissions was seen. Based on the predicted mean vote (PMV) and physiological equivalent temperature (PET) indices, cool and cold conditions more than warm and comfort conditions have an effect on the number of hospital admissions of cardiovascular patients. Overall, the obtained results showed that the extreme climatic conditions were directly related to an increase in cardiovascular disease in Kermanshah.

Bioclimatic comfort and the thermal perceptions and preferences of beach tourists.

PubMed

Rutty, Michelle; Scott, Daniel

2015-01-01

The largest market segment of global tourism is coastal tourism, which is strongly dependent on the destination's thermal climate. To date, outdoor bioclimatic comfort assessments have focused exclusively on local residents in open urban areas, making it unclear whether outdoor comfort is perceived differently in non-urban environments or by non-residents (i.e. tourists) with different weather expectations and activity patterns. This study provides needed insight into the perception of outdoor microclimatic conditions in a coastal environment while simultaneously identifying important psychological factors that differentiate tourists from everyday users of urban spaces. Concurrent micrometeorological measurements were taken on several Caribbean beaches in the islands of Barbados, Saint Lucia and Tobago, while a questionnaire survey was used to examine the thermal comfort of subjects (n = 472). Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) conditions of 32 to 39 °C were recorded, which were perceived as being "slightly warm" or "warm" by respondents. Most beach users (48 to 77 %) would not change the thermal conditions, with some (4 to 15 %) preferring even warmer conditions. Even at UTCI of 39 °C, 62 % of respondents voted for no change to current thermal conditions, with an additional 10 % stating that they would like to feel even warmer. These results indicate that beach users' thermal preferences are up to 18 °C warmer than the preferred thermal conditions identified in existing outdoor bioclimatic studies from urban park settings. This indicates that beach users hold fundamentally different comfort perceptions and preferences compared to people using urban spaces. Statistically significant differences (p ≤ .05) were also recorded for demographic groups (gender, age) and place of origin (climatic region).

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

PubMed Central

Bellali, Hedia; Ben-Alaya, Nissaf; Saez, Marc; Malouche, Dhafer; Chahed, Mohamed Kouni

2017-01-01

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009–2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia. PMID:28841642

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors.

PubMed

Talmoudi, Khouloud; Bellali, Hedia; Ben-Alaya, Nissaf; Saez, Marc; Malouche, Dhafer; Chahed, Mohamed Kouni

2017-08-01

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009-2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia.

Analysis of the suitability of various soil groups and types of climate for avocado growing in the state of Michoacán, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovina, I. A.; Bautista, F.

2014-05-01

Avocado is the largest cash crop exported by Mexico, and the state of Michoacán is its largest producer. For the further development of avocado plantations, the optimal edaphic and bioclimatic conditions for this crop should be determined. We performed a review of the literature to find out the requirements of the avocado for soil and climatic conditions and analyzed the maps, soil databases, and data from local weather stations in the studied region for developing scales of suitability of soils and climates for avocado growing. To verify these scales, a method of data mining was applied; a decision tree developed by this method confirmed the high accuracy and adequacy of the suggested grouping.

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed Central

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-01-01

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change. PMID:14561301

Predicting species richness and distribution ranges of centipedes at the northern edge of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgopoulou, Elisavet; Djursvoll, Per; Simaiakis, Stylianos M.

2016-07-01

In recent decades, interest in understanding species distributions and exploring processes that shape species diversity has increased, leading to the development of advanced methods for the exploitation of occurrence data for analytical and ecological purposes. Here, with the use of georeferenced centipede data, we explore the importance and contribution of bioclimatic variables and land cover, and predict distribution ranges and potential hotspots in Norway. We used a maximum entropy analysis (Maxent) to model species' distributions, aiming at exploring centres of distribution, latitudinal spans and northern range boundaries of centipedes in Norway. The performance of all Maxent models was better than random with average test area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.893 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) values above 0.593. Our results showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient of increased species richness in southern grid-cells. Mean temperatures of warmest and coldest quarters explained much of the potential distribution of species. Predictive modelling analyses revealed that south-eastern Norway and the Atlantic coast in the west (inclusive of the major fjord system of Sognefjord), are local biodiversity hotspots with regard to high predictive species co-occurrence. We conclude that our predicted northward shifts of centipedes' distributions in Norway are likely a result of post-glacial recolonization patterns, species' ecological requirements and dispersal abilities.

A comprehensive analysis of physiologically equivalent temperature changes of Iranian selected stations for the last half century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Kovács, Attila; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-01-01

As a preliminary and major step for land use planning of the coming years, the study of variability of the past decades' climatic conditions with comprehensive indicators is of high importance. Given the fact that one of the affected areas by climatic change includes variability of thermal comfort, this study uses the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) to identify and evaluate bioclimatic conditions of 40 meteorological stations in Iran. In this study, PET changes for the period of 1960 to 2010 are analyzed, with the use of Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Pearson parametric method. The study focuses particularly on the diversity in spatio-temporal distribution of Iran's bioclimatic conditions. The findings show that the mean frequency percentage of days with comfort is 12.9 % according to the total number of selected stations. The maximum and minimum frequency percentage with values of 17.4 and 10.3 belong to Kerman and Chabahar stations, respectively. The findings of long-term trend analysis for the period of 1960-2010 show that 55 % of the stations have significant increasing trend in terms of thermal comfort class based on the Pearson method, while it is 40 % based on Mann-Kendall test. The results indicate that the highest frequency of days with thermal comfort in the southern coasts of Iran relates to the end of autumn and winter, nevertheless, such ideal conditions for the coastal cities of Caspian Sea and even central stations of Iran relate to mid-spring and mid-autumn. Late summer and early autumn along with late spring can be identified as the most ideal times in the west and northwest part of Iran. In addition, the most important inhibiting factors of thermal comfort prove to be different across the regions of Iran. For instance, in the southern coasts, warm to very hot bioclimatic events and in the west and northwest regions, cold to very cold conditions turn out to be the most important inhibiting factors. When considering the variations across the studied period, an increase in the frequency of thermal comfort condition is observed in almost half of the stations. Moreover, based on Pearson and Mann-Kendall methods, the trend of changes in monthly averages of PET has decreased in most stations and months, which can lead to different consequences in each month and station. Thus, it is expected that due to PET changes in recent decades and to the intensified global warming conditions, Iran's bioclimatic conditions change in a way that transfers the days with comfort to early spring and late autumn.

The relationship between bioclimatic thermal stress and subjective thermal sensation in pedestrian spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearlmutter, David; Jiao, Dixin; Garb, Yaakov

2014-12-01

Outdoor thermal comfort has important implications for urban planning and energy consumption in the built environment. To better understand the relation of subjective thermal experience to bioclimatic thermal stress in such contexts, this study compares micrometeorological and perceptual data from urban spaces in the hot-arid Negev region of Israel. Pedestrians reported on their thermal sensation in these spaces, whereas radiation and convection-related data were used to compute the Index of Thermal Stress (ITS) and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The former is a straightforward characterization of energy exchanges between the human body and its surroundings, without any conversion to an "equivalent temperature." Although the relation of ITS to subjective thermal sensation has been analyzed in the past under controlled indoor conditions, this paper offers the first analysis of this relation in an outdoor setting. ITS alone can account for nearly 60 % of the variance in pedestrians' thermal sensation under outdoor conditions, somewhat more than PET. A series of regressions with individual contextual variables and ITS identified those factors which accounted for additional variance in thermal sensation, whereas multivariate analyses indicated the considerable predictive power ( R-square = 0.74) of models including multiple contextual variables in addition to ITS. Our findings indicate that pedestrians experiencing variable outdoor conditions have a greater tolerance for incremental changes in thermal stress than has been shown previously under controlled indoor conditions, with a tapering of responses at high values of ITS. However, the thresholds of ITS corresponding to thermal "neutrality" and thermal "acceptability" are quite consistent regardless of context.

The relationship between bioclimatic thermal stress and subjective thermal sensation in pedestrian spaces.

PubMed

Pearlmutter, David; Jiao, Dixin; Garb, Yaakov

2014-12-01

Outdoor thermal comfort has important implications for urban planning and energy consumption in the built environment. To better understand the relation of subjective thermal experience to bioclimatic thermal stress in such contexts, this study compares micrometeorological and perceptual data from urban spaces in the hot-arid Negev region of Israel. Pedestrians reported on their thermal sensation in these spaces, whereas radiation and convection-related data were used to compute the Index of Thermal Stress (ITS) and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The former is a straightforward characterization of energy exchanges between the human body and its surroundings, without any conversion to an "equivalent temperature." Although the relation of ITS to subjective thermal sensation has been analyzed in the past under controlled indoor conditions, this paper offers the first analysis of this relation in an outdoor setting. ITS alone can account for nearly 60 % of the variance in pedestrians' thermal sensation under outdoor conditions, somewhat more than PET. A series of regressions with individual contextual variables and ITS identified those factors which accounted for additional variance in thermal sensation, whereas multivariate analyses indicated the considerable predictive power (R-square = 0.74) of models including multiple contextual variables in addition to ITS. Our findings indicate that pedestrians experiencing variable outdoor conditions have a greater tolerance for incremental changes in thermal stress than has been shown previously under controlled indoor conditions, with a tapering of responses at high values of ITS. However, the thresholds of ITS corresponding to thermal "neutrality" and thermal "acceptability" are quite consistent regardless of context.

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers. ?? Inter-Research 2004.

Ecogeography and utility to plant breeding of the crop wild relatives of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop wild relatives (CWR) are a rich source of genetic diversity for crop improvement. Combining ecogeographic and phylogenetic techniques can inform both conservation and breeding. Geographic occurrence, bioclimatic, and biophysical data were used to predict species distributions, range overlap and...

Land surface phenological responses to land use and climate variation in a changing Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariyeva, Jahan

During the last few decades Central Asia has experienced widespread changes in land cover and land use following the socio-economic and institutional transformations of the region catalyzed by the USSR collapse in 1991. The decade-long drought events and steadily increasing temperature regimes in the region came on top of these institutional transformations, affecting the long term and landscape scale vegetation responses. This research is based on the need to better understand the potential ecological and policy implications of climate variation and land use practices in the contexts of landscape-scale changes dynamics and variability patterns of land surface phenology responses in Central Asia. The land surface phenology responses -- the spatio-temporal dynamics of terrestrial vegetation derived from the remotely sensed data -- provide measurements linked to the timing of vegetation growth cycles (e.g., start of growing season) and total vegetation productivity over the growing season, which are used as a proxy for the assessment of effects of variations in environmental settings. Local and regional scale assessment of the before and after the USSR collapse vegetation response patterns in the natural and agricultural systems of the Central Asian drylands was conducted to characterize newly emerging links (since 1991) between coupled human and natural systems, e.g., socio-economic and policy drivers of altered land and water use and distribution patterns. Spatio-temporal patterns of bioclimatic responses were examined to determine how phenology is associated with temperature and precipitation in different land use types, including rainfed and irrigated agricultural types. Phenological models were developed to examine relationship between environmental drivers and effect of their altitudinal and latitudinal gradients on the broad-scale vegetation response patterns in non-cropland ecosystems of the desert, steppe, and mountainous regional landscapes of Central Asia. The study results demonstrated that the satellite derived measurements of temporal cycles of vegetation greenness and productivity data was a valuable bioclimatic integrator of climatic and land use variation in Central Asia. The synthesis of broad-scale phenological changes in Central Asia showed that linkages of natural and human systems vary across space and time comprising complex and tightly integrated patterns and processes that are not evident when studied separately.

Climate Change, Northern Birds of Conservation Concern and Matching the Hotspots of Habitat Suitability with the Reserve Network

PubMed Central

Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

2013-01-01

National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered. PMID:23700420

Climate change, northern birds of conservation concern and matching the hotspots of habitat suitability with the reserve network.

PubMed

Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

2013-01-01

National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051-2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species' probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares ("hotspots") in the four bird species groups in the period 1971-2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051-2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered.

Policy and strategy considerations for assisted migration on USDA Forest Service lands

Treesearch

Randy Johnson; Sandy Boyce; Leslie Brandt; Vicky Erickson; Louis Iverson; Greg Kujawa; Borys Tkacz

2013-01-01

Due to increased temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns associated with climate change, bioclimatic zones that provide habitat for many species are expected to expand, contract, disappear, shift poleward, or move towards higher elevations (WGA 2008). Species will respond to changing climate and disturbance regimes individually, with some species moving...

Analysis of chosen urban bioclimatic conditions in Upper Silesian Industrial Region, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimnol, Jan

2013-04-01

Due to the increasing urbanization, people spend more and more time in cities. Because of that fact during the last century the human bioclimatological approach had an important influence on the applied urban bioclimatology. The aim of the study was to analyze chosen thermal bioclimatic conditions in urban area of Upper Silesian Industrial Region in connection with the atmospheric circulation and air masses. The study was focused on the thermal conditions that are important for the bioclimatological research on human thermal comfort. They were the basis for making study on how to show the influence of the air masses and circulations types on frequency and variability of the chosen bioclimate indexes. That research was based on data (2004 - 2008) acquired by the Silesian University (Faculty of Earth Sciences) meteorological station located in the city of Sosnowiec (50°17'N, 19°08'E, h=263 m a.s.l.). The temperature measurements were made automatically every 10 minutes on the 2 meters above the ground level. Previous research showed that the station is a good representation of the local urban climate conditions in Upper Silesian Industrial Region. In the study the following air temperatures were taken into consideration: average day temperature, maximum day temperature, minimum day temperature and the average air temperature at 12 UTC. They were associated with atmospheric circulation types and masses typical for the region. Using the data mentioned above I conducted a classification to divide days into following objective categories: cool, cold, comfortable, hot, warm and very hot in the seasonal depiction. The final stage of the work was to find the answer to the following question: "When and how do the strong air masses and air circulations types modify bioclimatic conditions in the study area?" Answer to that question together with further results of the research will be presented on my poster.

Diversity hotspots of the laurel forest on Tenerife, Canary Islands: a phylogeographic study of Laurus and Ixanthus.

PubMed

Betzin, Anja; Thiv, Mike; Koch, Marcus A

2016-09-01

Macaronesian laurel forest is among the worldwide hotspots of threatened biodiversity. With increasing evidence that woodland composition on the Canary Islands changed dramatically during the last few thousand years, the aim of this study was to find evidence for substantial recent population dynamics of two representative species from laurel forest. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) was used to evaluate fine-scaled genetic variation of the paradigmatic tree Laurus novocanariensis (Lauraceae) and a long-lived herbaceous gentian from core laurel forest, Ixanthus viscosus (Gentianaceae), on Tenerife. Bioclimatic variables were analysed to study the respective climate niches. A chloroplast DNA screening was performed to evaluate additional genetic variation. Genetic diversity of the laurel tree showed severe geographic partitioning. On Tenerife, fine-scaled Bayesian clustering of genetic variation revealed a western and an eastern gene pool, separated by a zone of high admixture and with a third major gene pool. Compared with genetic clusters found on the other Canary Islands, the East-West differentiation on Tenerife seems to be more recent than differentiation between islands. This is substantiated by the finding of extremly low levels of chloroplast DNA-based polymorphisms. Ixanthus showed no geographic structuring of genetic variation. Genetic data from Tenerife indicate contemporary gene flow and dispersal on a micro/local scale rather than reflecting an old and relic woodland history. In particular for Laurus, it is shown that this species occupies a broad bioclimatic niche. This is not correlated with its respective distribution of genetic variation, therefore indicating its large potential for contemporary rapid and effective colonization. Ixanthus is more specialized to humid conditions and is mostly found in the natural Monteverde húmedo vegetation types, but even for this species indications for long-term persistence in the respective bioclimatically differentiated regions was not find. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantitative estimation of bioclimatic parameters from presence/absence vegetation data in North America by the modern analog technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Anderson, K.H.; Bartlein, P.J.

2008-01-01

The method of modern analogs is widely used to obtain estimates of past climatic conditions from paleobiological assemblages, and despite its frequent use, this method involved so-far untested assumptions. We applied four analog approaches to a continental-scale set of bioclimatic and plant-distribution presence/absence data for North America to assess how well this method works under near-optimal modern conditions. For each point on the grid, we calculated the similarity between its vegetation assemblage and those of all other points on the grid (excluding nearby points). The climate of the points with the most similar vegetation was used to estimate the climate at the target grid point. Estimates based the use of the Jaccard similarity coefficient had smaller errors than those based on the use of a new similarity coefficient, although the latter may be more robust because it does not assume that the "fossil" assemblage is complete. The results of these analyses indicate that presence/absence vegetation assemblages provide a valid basis for estimating bioclimates on the continental scale. However, the accuracy of the estimates is strongly tied to the number of species in the target assemblage, and the analog method is necessarily constrained to produce estimates that fall within the range of observed values. We applied the four modern analog approaches and the mutual overlap (or "mutual climatic range") method to estimate bioclimatic conditions represented by the plant macrofossil assemblage from a packrat midden of Last Glacial Maximum age from southern Nevada. In general, the estimation approaches produced similar results in regard to moisture conditions, but there was a greater range of estimates for growing-degree days. Despite its limitations, the modern analog technique can provide paleoclimatic reconstructions that serve as the starting point to the interpretation of past climatic conditions.

[Projection of potential geographic distribution of Apocynum venetum under climate change in northern China].

PubMed

Yang, Hui-Feng; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Jia, Xiao-Guang; Li, Xiao-Jin

2017-03-01

Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant, its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month, annual mean air temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate, the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang, in the northern part of Gansu, in the southern part of Neimeng, in the northern part of Ningxia, in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi, in the southern part of Shanxi, in the middle and northern part of Henan, in the middle and southern part of Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, in the southern part of Liaoning and part of Beijing. From 2050 to 2070, the model outputs indicated that the suitable habitats of A. venetum would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Gridded climate data from 5 GCMs of the Last Glacial Maximum downscaled to 30 arc s for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmatz, D. R.; Luterbacher, J.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Pearman, P. B.

2015-06-01

Studies of the impacts of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (≤ 1 km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125 m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1 km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1 and 0.5 °C for 98.9 and 87.8 %, respectively, of all pixels within two arc degrees of the current coastline. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1 km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 "bioclimatic" variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

FORWINE - Statistical Downscaling of Seasonal forecasts for wine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2016-04-01

The most renowned viticulture regions in the Iberian Peninsula have a long standing tradition in winemaking and are considered world-class grapevine (Vitis Vinifera L.) producing regions. Portugal is the 11th wine producer in the world, with internationally acclaimed wines, such as Port wine, and vineyards across the whole territory. Climate is widely acknowledged of one of the most important factors for grapevine development and growth (Fraga et al. 2014a and b; Jackson et al. 1993; Keller 2010). During the growing season (April-October in the Northern Hemisphere) of this perennial and deciduous crop, the climatic conditions are responsible for numerous morphologically and physiological changes. Anomalously low February-March mean temperature, anomalously high May mean temperature and anomalously high March precipitation tend to be favourable to wine production in the Douro Valley. Seasonal forecast of precipitation and temperature tailored to fit critical thresholds, for crucial seasons, can be used to inform management practices (viz. phytosanitary measures, land operations, marketing campaigns) and develop a wine production forecast. Statistical downscaling of precipitation, maximum, minimum temperatures is used to model wine production following Santos et al. (2013) and to calculate bioclimatic indices. The skill of the ensemble forecast is evaluated through anomaly correlation, ROC area, spread-error ratio and CRPS

Developing an Agro-Ecological Zoning Model for Tumbleweed (Salsola kali), as Energy Crop in Drylands of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, Silvia; Pitta-Alvarez, Sandra; Ulberich, Ana

2016-12-01

Salsola kali is considered extremely valuable as an energy crop worldwide because it adapts easily to environments with strong abiotic stresses (hydric, saline and alkaline) and produces large amounts of biomass in drylands. This species is categorized as an important weed in Argentina. The aim of this work was to design an agro-ecological zoning model for tumbleweed in Argentina, employing a Geography Information System. Based on the bioclimatic requirements for the species and the climatic data for Argentina (1981-2010 period), an agro-climatic suitability map was drawn. This map was superimposed on the saline and alkaline soil maps delineated by the Food and Agriculture Organization for dry climates, generating the agro-ecological zoning on a scale of 1 : 500 000. This zoning revealed very suitable and suitable cultivation areas on halomorphic soils. The potential growing areas extend from N of the Salta province (approximately 22° S) to the Santa Cruz province (50° S). The use of tumbleweed on halomorphic soils under semi-arid to arid conditions, for the dual purpose of forage use and source of lignocellulosic material for bioenergy, could improve agricultural productivity in these lands. Furthermore, it could also contribute to their environmental sustainability, since the species can be used to reclaim saline soils over the years. Based on international bibliography, the authors outlined an agro-ecological zoning model. This model may be applied to any part of the world, using the agro-ecological limits presented here.

Simulation of Avifauna Distributions Using Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

2004-01-01

Remote sensing has proved a fruitful tool for understanding the distribution and functioning of plant communities at multiple scales and to understand their coupling to bioclimatic and anthropogenic factors. But a similar approach to understanding the distribution and abundance of bird species as well as many other animal organisms is lacking. The increasing need for such understanding is evident with the recent examples of threats to human health via avian vector transmission and the increasing emphasis on global conservation biology. From experimental observations we know that species richness tends to track biological or environmental gradients. In this paper, we explore the fundamental idea that thermal and water-relation environments of birds, as estimated from satellite data and biophysical models, can define the constraints on their Occurrences and richness. We develop individual bird energy budget models and use these models to define the climate space niche of birds. Using satellite data assimilation products to drive our models, we disperse a distribution of virtual or actual bird species across the landscape in accordance to the limits expressed by their climate space niche. Here, we focus on the North American summer breeding season and give two examples to illustrate our approach. The first is a tundra loving bird, e.g. corresponding to the Culidris genus, and a second genus example, Myiurchus, that corresponds to arid or semi-arid regions. We define these birds in terms of their basic physiology and morphological characteristics, construct avian energetic simulations to predict their allowable metabolic ranges and climate space limits.

Geographic distribution of habitat, development, and population growth rates of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico.

PubMed

López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J; Robles-García, Pedro L; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

2013-01-01

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion.

Geographic Distribution of Habitat, Development, and Population Growth Rates of the Asian Citrus Psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico

PubMed Central

López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J.; Robles-García, Pedro L.; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

2013-01-01

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion. PMID:24735280

Spatio-temporal variations and genetic diversity of Anaplasma spp. in cattle from the North of Tunisia.

PubMed

Belkahia, Hanène; Ben Said, Mourad; El Mabrouk, Narjesse; Saidani, Mariem; Cherni, Chayma; Ben Hassen, Mariem; Bouattour, Ali; Messadi, Lilia

2017-09-01

In cattle, anaplasmosis is a tick-borne rickettsial disease caused by Anaplasma marginale, A. centrale, A. phagocytophilum, and A. bovis. To date, no information concerning the seasonal dynamics of single and/or mixed infections by different Anaplasma species in bovines are available in Tunisia. In this work, a total of 1035 blood bovine samples were collected in spring (n=367), summer (n=248), autumn (n=244) and winter (n=176) from five different governorates belonging to three bioclimatic zones from the North of Tunisia. Molecular survey of A. marginale, A. centrale and A. bovis in cattle showed that average prevalence rates were 4.7% (minimum 4.1% in autumn and maximum 5.6% in summer), 7% (minimum 3.9% in winter and maximum 10.7% in autumn) and 4.9% (minimum 2.7% in spring and maximum 7.3% in summer), respectively. A. phagocytophilum was not detected in all investigated cattle. Seasonal variations of Anaplasma spp. infection and co-infection rates in overall and/or according to each bioclimatic area were recorded. Molecular characterization of A. marginale msp4 gene indicated a high sequence homology of revealed strains with A. marginale sequences from African countries. Alignment of 16S rRNA A. centrale sequences showed that Tunisian strains were identical to the vaccine strain from several sub-Saharan African and European countries. The comparison of the 16S rRNA sequences of A. bovis variants showed a perfect homology between Tunisian variants isolated from cattle, goats and sheep. These present data are essential to estimate the risk of bovine anaplasmosis in order to develop integrated control policies against multi-species pathogen communities, infecting humans and different animal species, in the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological and geographical regularities of changes in the biological activity of automorphic soils on the foothills and adjacent plains of the Central Caucasus region (Kabardino-Balkarian Republic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorobtsova, O. N.; Khezheva, F. V.; Uligova, T. S.; Tembotov, R. Kh.

2015-03-01

The biochemical properties inherent to the main types of automorphic soils developed in different bioclimatic conditions of Elbrus and Terek variants of the vertical zonality within Kabardino-Balkaria were compared. The natural-climatic conditions of these variants noticeably affect the soil cover pattern. The ratio of the oxidase and hydrolase activities is sensitive to the moisture conditions in which these soils are formed. The redox processes are more active in drier conditions, whereas hydrolytic processes are more active under higher moisture. The level of the biological activity of the automorphic soils is estimated using the integral index of the ecological-biological soil status.

Explaining European fungal fruiting phenology with climate variability.

PubMed

Andrew, Carrie; Heegaard, Einar; Høiland, Klaus; Senn-Irlet, Beatrice; Kuyper, Thomas W; Krisai-Greilhuber, Irmgard; Kirk, Paul M; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob; Gange, Alan C; Egli, Simon; Bässler, Claus; Büntgen, Ulf; Boddy, Lynne; Kauserud, Håvard

2018-06-01

Here we assess the impact of geographically dependent (latitude, longitude, and altitude) changes in bioclimatic (temperature, precipitation, and primary productivity) variability on fungal fruiting phenology across Europe. Two main nutritional guilds of fungi, saprotrophic and ectomycorrhizal, were further separated into spring and autumn fruiters. We used a path analysis to investigate how biogeographic patterns in fungal fruiting phenology coincided with seasonal changes in climate and primary production. Across central to northern Europe, mean fruiting varied by approximately 25 d, primarily with latitude. Altitude affected fruiting by up to 30 d, with spring delays and autumnal accelerations. Fruiting was as much explained by the effects of bioclimatic variability as by their large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature drove fruiting of autumnal ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic groups as well as spring saprotrophic groups, while primary production and precipitation were major drivers for spring-fruiting ectomycorrhizal fungi. Species-specific phenology predictors were not stable, instead deviating from the overall mean. There is significant likelihood that further climatic change, especially in temperature, will impact fungal phenology patterns at large spatial scales. The ecological implications are diverse, potentially affecting food webs (asynchrony), nutrient cycling and the timing of nutrient availability in ecosystems. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Biogeographic variation of foliar n-alkanes of Juniperus communis var. saxatilis Pallas from the Balkans.

PubMed

Rajčević, Nemanja; Janaćković, Pedja; Dodoš, Tanja; Tešević, Vele; Marin, Petar D

2014-12-01

The composition of the epicuticular n-alkanes isolated from the leaves of ten populations of Juniperus communis L. var. saxatilis Pallas from central (continental) and western (coastal) areas of the Balkan Peninsula was characterized by GC-FID and GC/MS analyses. In the leaf waxes, 14 n-alkane homologues with chain-lengths ranging from C22 to C35 were identified. All samples were dominated by n-tritriacontane (C33 ), but differences in two other dominant n-alkanes allowed separating the coastal from the continental populations. Several statistical methods (ANOVA, principal component, discriminant, and cluster analyses as well as the Mantel test) were deployed to analyze the diversity and variability of the epicuticular-leaf-n-alkane patterns of the ten natural populations of J. communis var. saxatilis and their relation to different geographic and bioclimatic parameters. Cluster analysis showed a high correlation of the leaf-n-alkane patterns with the geographical distribution of the investigated samples, differentiating the coastal from the continental populations of this taxon. Several bioclimatic parameters related to aridity were highly correlated with this differentiation. Copyright © 2014 Verlag Helvetica Chimica Acta AG, Zürich.

Essential oil variation among natural populations of Lavandula multifida L. (Lamiaceae).

PubMed

Chograni, Hnia; Zaouali, Yosr; Rajeb, Chayma; Boussaid, Mohamed

2010-04-01

Volatiles from twelve wild Tunisian populations of Lavandula multifida L. growing in different bioclimatic zones were assessed by GC (RI) and GC/MS. Thirty-six constituents, representing 83.48% of the total oil were identified. The major components at the species level were carvacrol (31.81%), beta-bisabolene (14.89%), and acrylic acid dodecyl ester (11.43%). These volatiles, together with alpha-pinene, were also the main compounds discriminating the populations. According to these dominant compounds, one chemotype was revealed, a carvacrol/beta-bisabolene/acrylic acid dodecyl ester chemotype. However, a significant variation among the populations was observed for the majority of the constituents. A high chemical-population structure, estimated both by principal component analysis (PCA) and unweighted pair group method with averaging (UPGMA) cluster analysis based on Euclidean distances, was observed. Both methods allowed separation of the populations in three groups defined rather by minor than by major compounds. The population groups were not strictly concordant with their bioclimatic or geographic location. Conservation strategies should concern all populations, because of their low size and their high level of destruction. Populations exhibiting particular compounds other than the major ones should be protected first.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

PubMed Central

Fox, Naomi J.; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C. L.; Hutchings, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary Parasitic helminths represent one of the most pervasive challenges to livestock, and their intensity and distribution will be influenced by climate change. There is a need for long-term predictions to identify potential risks and highlight opportunities for control. We explore the approaches to modelling future helminth risk to livestock under climate change. One of the limitations to model creation is the lack of purpose driven data collection. We also conclude that models need to include a broad view of the livestock system to generate meaningful predictions. Abstract Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed. PMID:26486780

Recommendations for the Regionalizing of Coffee Cultivation in Colombia: A Methodological Proposal Based on Agro-Climatic Indices

PubMed Central

García L., Juan Carlos; Posada-Suárez, Húver; Läderach, Peter

2014-01-01

The Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) conducted an agro-ecological zoning study based on climate, soil, and terrain of the Colombian coffee-growing regions (CCGR) located in the tropics, between 1° and 11.5° N, in areas of complex topography. To support this study, a climate baseline was constructed at a spatial resolution of 5 km. Twenty-one bioclimatic indicators were drawn from this baseline data and from yield data for different coffee genotypes evaluated under conditions at eight experimental stations (ESs) belonging to the National Center for Coffee Research (CENICAFÉ). Three topographic indicators were obtained from a digital elevation model (DEM). Zoning at a national level resulted in the differentiation of 12 agro-climatic zones. Altitude notably influenced zone differentiation, however other factors such as large air currents, low-pressure atmospheric systems, valleys of the great rivers, and physiography also played an important role. The strategy of zoning according to coffee-growing conditions will enable areas with the greatest potential for the development of coffee cultivation to be identified, criteria for future research to be generated, and the level of technology implementation to be assessed. PMID:25436456

Recommendations for the regionalizing of coffee cultivation in Colombia: a methodological proposal based on agro-climatic indices.

PubMed

García L, Juan Carlos; Posada-Suárez, Húver; Läderach, Peter

2014-01-01

The Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) conducted an agro-ecological zoning study based on climate, soil, and terrain of the Colombian coffee-growing regions (CCGR) located in the tropics, between 1° and 11.5° N, in areas of complex topography. To support this study, a climate baseline was constructed at a spatial resolution of 5 km. Twenty-one bioclimatic indicators were drawn from this baseline data and from yield data for different coffee genotypes evaluated under conditions at eight experimental stations (ESs) belonging to the National Center for Coffee Research (CENICAFÉ). Three topographic indicators were obtained from a digital elevation model (DEM). Zoning at a national level resulted in the differentiation of 12 agro-climatic zones. Altitude notably influenced zone differentiation, however other factors such as large air currents, low-pressure atmospheric systems, valleys of the great rivers, and physiography also played an important role. The strategy of zoning according to coffee-growing conditions will enable areas with the greatest potential for the development of coffee cultivation to be identified, criteria for future research to be generated, and the level of technology implementation to be assessed.

Species distribution model transferability and model grain size - finer may not always be better.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed Amir; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Lukac, Martin

2018-05-08

Species distribution models have been used to predict the distribution of invasive species for conservation planning. Understanding spatial transferability of niche predictions is critical to promote species-habitat conservation and forecasting areas vulnerable to invasion. Grain size of predictor variables is an important factor affecting the accuracy and transferability of species distribution models. Choice of grain size is often dependent on the type of predictor variables used and the selection of predictors sometimes rely on data availability. This study employed the MAXENT species distribution model to investigate the effect of the grain size on model transferability for an invasive plant species. We modelled the distribution of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales, U.K. and tested model performance and transferability by varying grain size (50 m, 300 m, and 1 km). MAXENT-based models are sensitive to grain size and selection of variables. We found that over-reliance on the commonly used bioclimatic variables may lead to less accurate models as it often compromises the finer grain size of biophysical variables which may be more important determinants of species distribution at small spatial scales. Model accuracy is likely to increase with decreasing grain size. However, successful model transferability may require optimization of model grain size.

Genetic monitoring detects an overlooked cryptic species and reveals the diversity and distribution of three invasive Rattus congeners in south Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background South Africa's long and extensive trade activity has ensured ample opportunities for exotic species introduction. Whereas the rich biodiversity of endemic southern African fauna has been the focus of many studies, invasive vertebrates are generally overlooked despite potential impacts on biodiversity, health and agriculture. Genetic monitoring of commensal rodents in South Africa which uncovered the presence of Rattus tanezumi, a South-East Asian endemic not previously known to occur in Africa, provided the impetus for expanded studies on all invasive Rattus species present. Results To this end, intensified sampling at 28 South African localities and at one site in Swaziland, identified 149 Rattus specimens. Cytochrome b gene sequencing revealed the presence of two R. tanezumi, seven Rattus rattus and five Rattus norvegicus haplotypes in south Africa. Phylogenetic results were consistent with a single, recent R. tanezumi introduction and indicated that R. norvegicus and R. rattus probably became established following at least two and three independent introductions, respectively. Intra- and inter-specific diversity was highest in informal human settlements, with all three species occurring at a single metropolitan township site. Rattus norvegicus and R. rattus each occurred sympatrically with Rattus tanezumi at one and five sites, respectively. Karyotyping of selected R. rattus and R. tanezumi individuals identified diploid numbers consistent with those reported previously for these cryptic species. Ordination of bioclimatic variables and MaxEnt ecological niche modelling confirmed that the bioclimatic niche occupied by R. tanezumi in south Africa was distinct from that occupied in its naturalised range in south-east Asia suggesting that factors other than climate may influence the distribution of this species. Conclusions This study has highlighted the value of genetic typing for detecting cryptic invasive species, providing historical insights into introductions and for directing future sampling. The apparent ease with which a cryptic species can become established signals the need for broader implementation of genetic monitoring programmes. In addition to providing baseline data and potentially identifying high-risk introduction routes, the predictive power of ecological niche modelling is enhanced when species records are genetically verified. PMID:21324204

Spatial Biodiversity Patterns of Madagascar's Amphibians and Reptiles

PubMed Central

Brown, Jason L.; Sillero, Neftali; Glaw, Frank; Bora, Parfait; Vieites, David R.; Vences, Miguel

2016-01-01

Madagascar has become a model region for testing hypotheses of species diversification and biogeography, and many studies have focused on its diverse and highly endemic herpetofauna. Here we combine species distribution models of a near-complete set of species of reptiles and amphibians known from the island with body size data and a tabulation of herpetofaunal communities from field surveys, compiled up to 2008. Though taxonomic revisions and novel distributional records arose since compilation, we are confident that the data are appropriate for inferring and comparing biogeographic patterns among these groups of organisms. We observed species richness of both amphibians and reptiles was highest in the humid rainforest biome of eastern Madagascar, but reptiles also show areas of high richness in the dry and subarid western biomes. In several amphibian subclades, especially within the Mantellidae, species richness peaks in the central eastern geographic regions while in reptiles different subclades differ distinctly in their richness centers. A high proportion of clades and subclades of both amphibians and reptiles have a peak of local endemism in the topographically and bioclimatically diverse northern geographic regions. This northern area is roughly delimited by a diagonal spanning from 15.5°S on the east coast to ca. 15.0°S on the west coast. Amphibian diversity is highest at altitudes between 800–1200 m above sea-level whereas reptiles have their highest richness at low elevations, probably reflecting the comparatively large number of species specialized to the extended low-elevation areas in the dry and subarid biomes. We found that the range sizes of both amphibians and reptiles strongly correlated with body size, and differences between the two groups are explained by the larger body sizes of reptiles. However, snakes have larger range sizes than lizards which cannot be readily explained by their larger body sizes alone. Range filling, i.e., the amount of suitable habitat occupied by a species, is less expressed in amphibians than in reptiles, possibly reflecting their lower dispersal capacity. Taxonomic composition of communities assessed by field surveys is largely explained by bioclimatic regions, with communities from the dry and especially subarid biomes distinctly differing from humid and subhumid biomes. PMID:26735688

Spatial Biodiversity Patterns of Madagascar's Amphibians and Reptiles.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Sillero, Neftali; Glaw, Frank; Bora, Parfait; Vieites, David R; Vences, Miguel

2016-01-01

Madagascar has become a model region for testing hypotheses of species diversification and biogeography, and many studies have focused on its diverse and highly endemic herpetofauna. Here we combine species distribution models of a near-complete set of species of reptiles and amphibians known from the island with body size data and a tabulation of herpetofaunal communities from field surveys, compiled up to 2008. Though taxonomic revisions and novel distributional records arose since compilation, we are confident that the data are appropriate for inferring and comparing biogeographic patterns among these groups of organisms. We observed species richness of both amphibians and reptiles was highest in the humid rainforest biome of eastern Madagascar, but reptiles also show areas of high richness in the dry and subarid western biomes. In several amphibian subclades, especially within the Mantellidae, species richness peaks in the central eastern geographic regions while in reptiles different subclades differ distinctly in their richness centers. A high proportion of clades and subclades of both amphibians and reptiles have a peak of local endemism in the topographically and bioclimatically diverse northern geographic regions. This northern area is roughly delimited by a diagonal spanning from 15.5°S on the east coast to ca. 15.0°S on the west coast. Amphibian diversity is highest at altitudes between 800-1200 m above sea-level whereas reptiles have their highest richness at low elevations, probably reflecting the comparatively large number of species specialized to the extended low-elevation areas in the dry and subarid biomes. We found that the range sizes of both amphibians and reptiles strongly correlated with body size, and differences between the two groups are explained by the larger body sizes of reptiles. However, snakes have larger range sizes than lizards which cannot be readily explained by their larger body sizes alone. Range filling, i.e., the amount of suitable habitat occupied by a species, is less expressed in amphibians than in reptiles, possibly reflecting their lower dispersal capacity. Taxonomic composition of communities assessed by field surveys is largely explained by bioclimatic regions, with communities from the dry and especially subarid biomes distinctly differing from humid and subhumid biomes.

Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling support allopatric over parapatric speciation along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Rossetto, Maurizio; Allen, Chris B; Thurlby, Katie A G; Weston, Peter H; Milner, Melita L

2012-08-20

Four of the five species of Telopea (Proteaceae) are distributed in a latitudinal replacement pattern on the south-eastern Australian mainland. In similar circumstances, a simple allopatric speciation model that identifies the origins of genetic isolation within temporal geographic separation is considered as the default model. However, secondary contact between differentiated lineages can result in similar distributional patterns to those arising from a process of parapatric speciation (where gene flow between lineages remains uninterrupted during differentiation). Our aim was to use the characteristic distributional patterns in Telopea to test whether it reflected the evolutionary models of allopatric or parapatric speciation. Using a combination of genetic evidence and environmental niche modelling, we focused on three main questions: do currently described geographic borders coincide with genetic and environmental boundaries; are there hybrid zones in areas of secondary contact between closely related species; did species distributions contract during the last glacial maximum resulting in distributional gaps even where overlap and hybridisation currently occur? Total genomic DNA was extracted from 619 individuals sampled from 36 populations representing the four species. Seven nuclear microsatellites (nSSR) and six chloroplast microsatellites (cpSSR) were amplified across all populations. Genetic structure and the signature of admixture in overlap zones was described using the Bayesian clustering methods implemented in STUCTURE and NewHybrids respectively. Relationships between chlorotypes were reconstructed as a median-joining network. Environmental niche models were produced for all species using environmental parameters from both the present day and the last glacial maximum (LGM).The nSSR loci amplified a total of 154 alleles, while data for the cpSSR loci produced a network of six chlorotypes. STRUCTURE revealed an optimum number of five clusters corresponding to the four recognised species with the additional division of T. speciosissima into populations north and south of the Shoalhaven River valley. Unexpectedly, the northern disjunct population of T. oreades grouped with T. mongaensis and was identified as a hybrid swarm by the Bayesian assignment test implemented in NewHybrids. Present day and LGM environmental niche models differed dramatically, suggesting that distributions of all species had repeatedly expanded and contracted in response to Pleistocene climatic oscillations and confirming strongly marked historical distributional gaps among taxes. Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling results are more consistent with a history of allopatric speciation followed by repeated episodes of secondary contact and localised hybridisation, rather than with parapatric speciation. This study on Telopea shows that the evidence for temporal exclusion of gene flow can be found even outside obvious geographical contexts, and that it is possible to make significant progress towards excluding parapatric speciation as a contributing evolutionary process.

National Variation in Crop Yield Production Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Rising, J. A.

2017-12-01

A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the county scale using regional climate covariates is presented in this paper. A new crop specific water deficit index, growing degree days, extreme degree days, and time-trend as an approximation of technology improvements are used as predictors to estimate annual crop yields for each county from 1949 to 2009. Every county in the United States is allowed to have unique parameters describing how these weather predictors are related to yield outcomes. County-specific parameters are further modeled as varying according to climatic characteristics, allowing the prediction of parameters in regions where crops are not currently grown and into the future. The structural relationships between crop yield and regional climate as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All counties are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. The model captures up to 60% of the variability in crop yields after removing the effect of technology, does well in out of sample predictions and is useful in relating the climate responses to local bioclimatic factors. We apply the predicted growing models in a cost-benefit analysis to identify the most economically productive crop in each county.

Drivers of radial growth and carbon isotope discrimination of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.) across continental gradients in precipitation, vapour pressure deficit and irradiance

Treesearch

Steven L. Voelker; Frederick C. Meinzer; Barbara Lachenbruch; J. Renee Brooks; Richard P. Guyette

2014-01-01

Tree-ring characteristics are commonly used to reconstruct climate variables, but divergence from the assumption of a single biophysical control may reduce the accuracy of these reconstructions. Here, we present data from bur oaks (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.) sampled within and beyond the current species bioclimatic envelope to identify the primary...

Why do different oceanic archipelagos harbour contrasting levels of species diversity? The macaronesian endemic genus Pericallis (Asteraceae) provides insight into explaining the 'Azores diversity Enigma'.

PubMed

Jones, K E; Pérez-Espona, S; Reyes-Betancort, J A; Pattinson, D; Caujapé-Castells, J; Hiscock, S J; Carine, M A

2016-10-08

Oceanic archipelagos typically harbour extensive radiations of flowering plants and a high proportion of endemics, many of which are restricted to a single island (Single Island Endemics; SIEs). The Azores represents an anomaly as overall levels of endemism are low; there are few SIEs and few documented cases of intra-archipelago radiations. The distinctiveness of the flora was first recognized by Darwin and has been referred to as the 'Azores Diversity Enigma' (ADE). Diversity patterns in the Macaronesian endemic genus Pericallis (Asteraceae) exemplify the ADE. In this study we used morphometric, Amplified Length Polymorphisms, and bioclimatic data for herbaceous Pericallis lineages endemic to the Azores and the Canaries, to test two key hypotheses proposed to explain the ADE: i) that it is a taxonomic artefact or Linnean shortfall, ie. the under description of taxa in the Azores or the over-splitting of taxa in the Canaries and (ii) that it reflects the greater ecological homogeneity of the Azores, which results in limited opportunity for ecological diversification compared to the Canaries. In both the Azores and the Canaries, morphological patterns were generally consistent with current taxonomic classifications. However, the AFLP data showed no genetic differentiation between the two currently recognized Azorean subspecies that are ecologically differentiated. Instead, genetic diversity in the Azores was structured geographically across the archipelago. In contrast, in the Canaries genetic differentiation was mostly consistent with morphology and current taxonomic treatments. Both Azorean and Canarian lineages exhibited ecological differentiation between currently recognized taxa. Neither a Linnean shortfall nor the perceived ecological homogeneity of the Azores fully explained the ADE-like pattern observed in Pericallis. Whilst variation in genetic data and morphological data in the Canaries were largely congruent, this was not the case in the Azores, where genetic patterns reflected inter-island geographical isolation, and morphology reflected intra-island bioclimatic variation. The combined effects of differences in (i) the extent of geographical isolation, (ii) population sizes and (iii) geographical occupancy of bioclimatic niche space, coupled with the morphological plasticity of Pericallis, may all have contributed to generating the contrasting patterns observed in the archipelagos.

A Cool Urban Island Change 1990 - 2014. Comparative Bioclimatic Analysis in a Desert Climate, the Case of Antofagasta City Square

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez Lancellotti, Gino; Ziede Bize, Marcela

2017-10-01

This article proposes to make a comparative bioclimatic analysis from 1990 to 2014 of the main square of Antofagasta, a coastal desert city in Chile, which was remodelled in 1995, and shows how the redesigning of green areas affects the microclimatic conditions and thermal comfort of the urban space. Ex ante measurements dating 1990 were compared with ex post results from 2014. Data were obtained in both cases in the month of September at different times of a day and in different climate conditions. The variables studied were: land surface temperature, humidity, wind speed, amount of light and square use frequency inside the square and in surrounding streets. The temperatures are not statistically different during the years 1990 and 2014 for the city of Antofagasta. The main layout of the square has not changed, and inside the square it is similar for both periods, but new species were introduced and bigger trees with shadow projection were cut down. The square had a micro-climate role in 2014 as well as in 1990. The highest frequency zone with an important surface lost it is comfort thermic condition with an increase of 1°C. Other smaller zones with less relevance for users gained in cooling with a 0.5°C reduction. The new design has been detrimental to the intensity of its micro climatic regulatory function affecting the thermic comfort of the square’s internal spaces, especially those formerly protected by shadow, which mitigate a high solar radiation. The study results suggest that bio-climatic analysis of public open spaces is a key component for the design of future projects as a heat mitigating tool in the context of climate change. Research question is: How does the redesign of the square impact a cool urban island and the thermic comfort of users? Significant differences between data in situ collected in 1990 and 2014. Thermal comfort was negatively affected by the redesign in the square. The square is still a cool island but with less strength.

Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley

2017-10-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Results show that by the middle of the twenty-first century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Analysis of Climatic and Environmental Changes Using CLEARS Web-GIS Information-Computational System: Siberia Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, A. G.; Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I.; Shulgina, T. M.

2011-12-01

Analysis of recent climatic and environmental changes in Siberia performed on the basis of the CLEARS (CLimate and Environment Analysis and Research System) information-computational system is presented. The system was developed using the specialized software framework for rapid development of thematic information-computational systems based on Web-GIS technologies. It comprises structured environmental datasets, computational kernel, specialized web portal implementing web mapping application logic, and graphical user interface. Functional capabilities of the system include a number of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, data processing and visualization. At present a number of georeferenced datasets is available for processing including two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 and ERA Interim Reanalysis, meteorological observation data for the territory of the former USSR, and others. Firstly, using functionality of the computational kernel employing approved statistical methods it was shown that the most reliable spatio-temporal characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in Siberia in the second half of 20th and beginning of 21st centuries are provided by ERA-40/ERA Interim Reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA Reanalysis, respectively. Namely those Reanalyses are statistically consistent with reliable in situ meteorological observations. Analysis of surface temperature and precipitation dynamics for the territory of Siberia performed on the base of the developed information-computational system reveals fine spatial and temporal details in heterogeneous patterns obtained for the region earlier. Dynamics of bioclimatic indices determining climate change impact on structure and functioning of regional vegetation cover was investigated as well. Analysis shows significant positive trends of growing season length accompanied by statistically significant increase of sum of growing degree days and total annual precipitation over the south of Western Siberia. In particular, we conclude that analysis of trends of growing season length, sum of growing degree-days and total precipitation during the growing season reveals a tendency to an increase of vegetation ecosystems productivity across the south of Western Siberia (55°-60°N, 59°-84°E) in the past several decades. The developed system functionality providing instruments for comparison of modeling and observational data and for reliable climatological analysis allowed us to obtain new results characterizing regional manifestations of global change. It should be added that each analysis performed using the system leads also to generation of the archive of spatio-temporal data fields ready for subsequent usage by other specialists. In particular, the archive of bioclimatic indices obtained will allow performing further detailed studies of interrelations between local climate and vegetation cover changes, including changes of carbon uptake related to variations of types and amount of vegetation and spatial shift of vegetation zones. This work is partially supported by RFBR grants #10-07-00547 and #11-05-01190-a, SB RAS Basic Program Projects 4.31.1.5 and 4.31.2.7.

Assessing the Risk of Invasion by Tephritid Fruit Flies: Intraspecific Divergence Matters

PubMed Central

Godefroid, Martin; Cruaud, Astrid; Rossi, Jean-Pierre; Rasplus, Jean-Yves

2015-01-01

Widely distributed species often show strong phylogeographic structure, with lineages potentially adapted to different biotic and abiotic conditions. The success of an invasion process may thus depend on the intraspecific identity of the introduced propagules. However, pest risk analyses are usually performed without accounting for intraspecific diversity. In this study, we developed bioclimatic models using MaxEnt and boosted regression trees approaches, to predict the potential distribution in Europe of six economically important Tephritid pests (Ceratitis fasciventris (Bezzi), Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann), Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) and Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillet)). We considered intraspecific diversity in our risk analyses by independently modeling the distributions of conspecific lineages. The six species displayed different potential distributions in Europe. A strong signal of intraspecific climate envelope divergence was observed in most species. In some cases, conspecific lineages differed strongly in potential distributions suggesting that taxonomic resolution should be accounted for in pest risk analyses. No models (lineage- and species-based approaches) predicted high climatic suitability in the entire invaded range of B. oleae—the only species whose intraspecific identity of invading populations has been elucidated—in California. Host availability appears to play the most important role in shaping the geographic range of this specialist pest. However, climatic suitability values predicted by species-based models are correlated with population densities of B. oleae globally reported in California. Our study highlights how classical taxonomic boundaries may lead to under- or overestimation of the potential pest distributions and encourages accounting for intraspecific diversity when assessing the risk of biological invasion. PMID:26274582

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

PubMed Central

Brook, Barry W.; Hoskin, Conrad J.; Pressey, Robert L.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E.

2016-01-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. PMID:27729484

A preliminary bioclimatic approach to predicting potential distribution of Phellinus noxious and geographical areas at risk from invasion

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Eric W. I. Pitman; John W. Hanna; Phil G. Cannon; Jane E. Stewart; Norio Sahashi; Yuko Ota; Tsutomu Hattori; Mitsuteru Akiba; Louise Shuey; Robert L. Schlub; Fred Brooks; Ndeme Atibalentja; Alvin M. C. Tang; Regent Y. C. Lam; Mike W. K. Leung; L. M. Chu; H. S. Kwan; Mohd Farid bin Ahmad; Su See Lee; Hsin-Han Lee; Jyh-Nong Tsai; Yu-Ching Huang; Chia-Lin Chung; Ruey-Fen Liou; Mee-Sook Kim

2016-01-01

Phellinus noxius, the cause of brown root-rot disease, is an invasive pathogen that was first described by Corner in Singapore (Corner 1932). It has a wide host range of primarily woody plants representing over 200 species from diverse families (Ann et al. 2002). This pathogen is also widespread, and has been reported to occur in many tropical/subtropical...

Global warming leads to more uniform spring phenology across elevations.

PubMed

Vitasse, Yann; Signarbieux, Constant; Fu, Yongshuo H

2018-01-30

One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law." What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m -1 conforming to Hopkins' bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m -1 in 2016, i.e., -35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant-animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Ecological Niche Modelling using satellite data for assessing distribution of threatened species Ceropegia bulbosa Roxb.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Kulloli, R. N.; Tewari, J. C.; Singh, J. P.; Singh, A.

2014-11-01

Ceropegia bulbosa Roxb. is a narrow endemic, tuberous twiner of Asclepiadaceae family. It is medicinally important: tubers are nutritive and edible, leaves are digestive and a cure for dysentery and diarrhea. Exploitation for its tubers and poor regeneration of this species has shrunk its distribution. In order to know its present status, we report here the results of its appraisal in Rajasthan, using remote sensing and ground truthing in the past five years (2009-14). A base map of C. bulbosa was prepared using Geographical Information System (GIS), open source software Quantum GIS, SAGA. The Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) +Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) Satellite Data were used in this study. ASTER and GDEM Data was clipped with district boundary and provided color range to get elevation information. A digital elevation model of Rajasthan physiography was developed from ASTER GDEM of 30-m resolution. GIS layers of Area of occurrences for C. bulbosa plant and elevation were created. This map along with topographic sheets of 1:50000 were used for field traversing and ground truthing as per GPS location inferred from map. Its geographic distribution was assessed using MaxEnt distribution modelling algorithm that employed 12 presence locality data, 19 bioclimatic variables, and elevation data. Results of this modelling predicted occurrence of C. bulbosa in the districts of Sirohi, Jalore, Barmer, Pali, Ajmer, Jhalawar, Dungarpur, Banswara, Baran, Kota, Bundi and Chittorgarh. Ground validation in these districts revealed its presence only at four places in three districts confirming its rarity. Analysis of dominance at their sites of occurrence revealed their poor populations and sub dominant status (RIV = 20-32) and very low density (2-12 plants per tenth ha).

Improved canopy reflectance modeling and scene inference through improved understanding of scene pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Franklin, Janet; Simonett, David

1988-01-01

The Li-Strahler reflectance model, driven by LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data, provided regional estimates of tree size and density within 20 percent of sampled values in two bioclimatic zones in West Africa. This model exploits tree geometry in an inversion technique to predict average tree size and density from reflectance data using a few simple parameters measured in the field (spatial pattern, shape, and size distribution of trees) and in the imagery (spectral signatures of scene components). Trees are treated as simply shaped objects, and multispectral reflectance of a pixel is assumed to be related only to the proportions of tree crown, shadow, and understory in the pixel. These, in turn, are a direct function of the number and size of trees, the solar illumination angle, and the spectral signatures of crown, shadow and understory. Given the variance in reflectance from pixel to pixel within a homogeneous area of woodland, caused by the variation in the number and size of trees, the model can be inverted to give estimates of average tree size and density. Because the inversion is sensitive to correct determination of component signatures, predictions are not accurate for small areas.

Application of Maxent Multivariate Analysis to Define Reptile Species Distributions and Changes Related to Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

species of importance to the military, such as birds and gophers. ERDC/CERL TR-16-6 88 References Cited Buhlmann, Kurt A ., Thomas S.B. Akre , John...As a re- sult, it can be shown with a high degree of assurance that the majority of a reptile’s range can be delineated with just a few bioclimatic...the reptiles as a group ............................................... 86 9.2 Recommendations

Application of GIS to predict malaria hotspots based on Anopheles arabiensis habitat suitability in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gwitira, Isaiah; Murwira, Amon; Zengeya, Fadzai M.; Shekede, Munyaradzi Davis

2018-02-01

Malaria remains a major public health problem and a principal cause of morbidity and mortality in most developing countries. Although malaria still presents health problems, significant successes have been recorded in reducing deaths resulting from the disease. As malaria transmission continues to decline, control interventions will increasingly depend on the ability to define high-risk areas known as malaria hotspots. Therefore, there is urgent need to use geospatial tools such as geographic information system to detect spatial patterns of malaria and delineate disease hot spots for better planning and management. Thus, accurate mapping and prediction of seasonality of malaria hotspots is an important step towards developing strategies for effective malaria control. In this study, we modelled seasonal malaria hotspots as a function of habitat suitability of Anopheles arabiensis (A. Arabiensis) as a first step towards predicting likely seasonal malaria hotspots that could provide guidance in targeted malaria control. We used Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial statistic methods to identify seasonal hotspots of malaria cases at the country level. In order to achieve this, we first determined the spatial distribution of seasonal malaria hotspots using the Getis Ord Gi* statistic based on confirmed positive malaria cases recorded at health facilities in Zimbabwe over four years (1996-1999). We then used MAXENT technique to model habitat suitability of A. arabiensis from presence data collected from 1990 to 2002 based on bioclimatic variables and altitude. Finally, we used autologistic regression to test the extent to which malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability. Our results show that A. arabiensis habitat suitability consistently and significantly (p < 0.05) predicts malaria hotspots from 1996 to 1999. Overall, our results show that malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability, suggesting the possibility of developing models for malaria early warning based on vector habitat suitability.

The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-century climate effects on Rocky Mountain Trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, Daniel J.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Todd, Andrew S.; Al-chokhachy, Robert; Roberts, James; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steven W.

2012-01-01

Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs consistent with a warming climate in recent decades. Biological implications include upstream shifts in thermal habitats, risk of egg scour, increased wildfire disturbances, and declining summer habitat volumes. The importance of these factors depends on the context, but temperature increases are most relevant where population boundaries are mediated by thermal constraints. Summer flow declines and wildfires will be important where trout populations are fragmented and constrained to small refugia. A critical information gap is evidence documenting how populations are adjusting to long-term habitat trends, so biological monitoring is a priority. Biological, temperature, and discharge data from monitoring networks could be used to develop accurate vulnerability assessments that provide information regarding where conservation actions would best improve population resilience. Even with better information, future uncertainties will remain large due to unknowns regarding Earth's ultimate warming trajectory and how effects translate across scales. Maintaining or increasing the size of habitats could provide a buffer against these uncertainties.

First molecular detection and characterization of zoonotic Bartonella species in fleas infesting domestic animals in Tunisia.

PubMed

Zouari, Saba; Khrouf, Fatma; M'ghirbi, Youmna; Bouattour, Ali

2017-09-19

Bartonellosis is an emerging vector-borne disease caused by different intracellular bacteria of the genus Bartonella (Rhizobiales: Bartonellaceae) that is transmitted primarily by blood-sucking arthropods such as sandflies, ticks and fleas. In Tunisia, there are no data available identifying the vectors of Bartonella spp. In our research, we used molecular methods to detect and characterize Bartonella species circulating in fleas collected from domestic animals in several of the country's bioclimatic areas. A total of 2178 fleas were collected from 5 cats, 27 dogs, 34 sheep, and 41 goats at 22 sites located in Tunisia's five bioclimatic zones. The fleas were identified as: 1803 Ctenocephalides felis (83%) (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae), 266 C. canis (12%) and 109 Pulex irritans (5%) (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae). Using conventional PCR, we screened the fleas for the presence of Bartonella spp., targeting the citrate synthase gene (gltA). Bartonella DNA was detected in 14% (121/866) of the tested flea pools [estimated infection rate (EIR) per 2 specimens: 0.072, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.060-0.086]. The Bartonella infection rate per pool was broken down as follows: 55% (65/118; EIR per 2 specimens: 0.329, 95% CI: 0.262-0.402) in C. canis; 23.5% (8/34; EIR per 2 specimens: 0.125, 95% CI: 0.055-0.233) in P. irritans and 6.7% (48/714; EIR per 2 specimens: 0.032, 95% CI: 0.025-0.045) in C. felis. Infection rates, which varied significantly by bioclimatic zone (P < 0.0001), were highest in the humid areas. By sequencing, targeting the gltA gene and the 16S-23S rRNA Intergenic Spacer Regions (ITS), we identified three Bartonella zoonotic species: B. elizabethae, B. henselae, B. clarridgeiae, as well as uncharacterized Bartonella genotypes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that fleas in Tunisia have been shown to carry zoonotic species of Bartonella. The dog flea, Ctenocephalides canis, should be considered the main potential vector of Bartonella. Our study not only provides new information about this vector, but also offers a public health update: medical practitioners and farmers in Tunisia should be apprised of the presence of Bartonella in fleas and implement preventive measures.

The Plant Foliage Projective Coverage Change over the Northern Tibetan Plateau during 1957-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuo, L.

2015-12-01

Northern Tibetan Plateau is the headwater of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Mekong River that support billions of the population. Vegetation change will affect the regional ecosystem and water balances through the changes in biomass and evapotranspiration. Dynamic vegetation growth is determined by physiological, morphological, bioclimatic and phenological properties. These properties are affected by climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation, soil temperature and concentration of CO2, etc. Due to climate change, some parts of the northern Tibetan Plateau are under the threat of desertification. Identifying the places of vegetation degradation and the dominant driven climatic factors will help mitigate the climate change impacts on ecosystem and water resources in this region. In this study, the changes of foliage projective coverages (FPCs) of various plant functional types (PFTs) existed in the northern Tibetan Plateau and the responses of FPCs to the four climate variables over 1957-2009 are examined. The dominant factors among the four climate variables are also identified. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) is modified and used for the investigation. The modified LPJ-DGVM can better account for soil temperature in the top 0.4-m depth where vegetation root concentrates over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The modified model is evaluated by using monthly and annual soil temperature observed at stations across the region, and the eco-geographic maps that describe plant types and spatial distributions developed from field surveys and satellite images for this region.

Using a down-scaled bioclimate envelope model to determine long-term temporal connectivity of Garry oak (Quercus garryana) habitat in western North America: implications for protected area planning.

PubMed

Pellatt, Marlow G; Goring, Simon J; Bodtker, Karin M; Cannon, Alex J

2012-04-01

Under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA), Garry oak (Quercus garryana) ecosystems are listed as "at-risk" and act as an umbrella for over one hundred species that are endangered to some degree. Understanding Garry oak responses to future climate scenarios at scales relevant to protected area managers is essential to effectively manage existing protected area networks and to guide the selection of temporally connected migration corridors, additional protected areas, and to maintain Garry oak populations over the next century. We present Garry oak distribution scenarios using two random forest models calibrated with down-scaled bioclimatic data for British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon based on 1961-1990 climate normals. The suitability models are calibrated using either both precipitation and temperature variables or using only temperature variables. We compare suitability predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and present CGCM2 model results under two emissions scenarios. For each GCM and emissions scenario we apply the two Garry oak suitability models and use the suitability models to determine the extent and temporal connectivity of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat within protected areas from 2010 to 2099. The suitability models indicate that while 164 km(2) of the total protected area network in the region (47,990 km(2)) contains recorded Garry oak presence, 1635 and 1680 km(2) of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat is currently under some form of protection. Of this suitable protected area, only between 6.6 and 7.3% will be "temporally connected" between 2010 and 2099 based on the CGCM2 model. These results highlight the need for public and private protected area organizations to work cooperatively in the development of corridors to maintain temporal connectivity in climatically suitable areas for the future of Garry oak ecosystems.

Bioclimatic changes and landslide recurrence in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro: are we ready to face the next landslide disaster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luiza Coelho Netto, Ana; Facadio, Ana Carolina; Pereira, Roberta; Lima, Pedro Henrique

2017-04-01

Paleo-environmental studies point out an alternation of wet and dry periods during the Holocene in southeastern Brazil, marked by the expansion and retraction of the humid tropical rainforest in alternation with the campos de altitude vegetation ('high altitude grassland'); successive episodes of natural fire were recorded from 10,000 to 4,000 years BP in the mountainous region of SE-Brazil, reflecting warm-dry conditions. Present seasonal climatic variability is indicated by an increasing dry spell frequency throughout the XX and early XXI centuries together with an increasing rainfall concentration in the summer when extreme daily totals (above 100 mm) become progressively more frequent. Historical land use changes, at both regional and local scales, are mostly related to this climatic variability. Therefore extreme rainfall induced landslides have been responsible for severe disasters as recorded along the Atlantic slopes of Serra do Mar. The extreme one occurred in January 2011, affecting the municipalities of Nova Friburgo, Teresópolis and Petrópolis. Studies in Nova Friburgo shown the occurrence of 3.622 landslides scars within an area of 421 km2; this rainfall event reached the expected average monthly rainfall (300 mm) in less than 10 hours. The D'Antas creek basin (53 km2) was the most affected area by landslides; 86% of 326 scars where associated with shallow translational mechanisms among which 67% occurred within shallow concave up topographic hollows of 32° slope angle in average. Most of these landslide scars occurred in granite rocks and degraded vegetation due to historical land use changes (last 200 years) including secondary forest (64%) and grasslands (25%). The present-day association between extreme rainfall induced landslides and human induced vegetation changes seem to reflect similar geomorphic responses to natural Holocene bioclimatic changes; a common phenomenon between the two periods is fire (natural fire in the past time and man-induced fire nowadays). Despite all field evidences on the relevance of landslides on hillslope evolution in the mountainous domain, local communities at risk and governmental institutions are not yet ready to face the next extreme rain event. Since November 2014 a new governance and risk management model has been developed in the Córrego D'Antas basin, through a multi-institutional network integrating local communities, university and governmental institutions as will be presented in this paper.

Detection of novel strains genetically related to Anaplasma platys in Tunisian one-humped camels (Camelus dromedarius).

PubMed

Belkahia, Hanène; Ben Said, Mourad; Sayahi, Lotfi; Alberti, Alberto; Messadi, Lilia

2015-10-29

Little information is currently available regarding the presence of Anaplasma species in North African dromedaries. To fill this gap in knowledge, the prevalence, risk factors, and genetic diversity of Anaplasma species were investigated in Tunisian dromedary camels. A total of 226 camels from three different bioclimatic areas were sampled and tested for the presence of Anaplasma species by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) assays. Detected Anaplasma strains were characterized by 16S rRNA sequence analysis. Overall infection rate of Anaplasma spp. was 17.7%, and was significantly higher in females. Notably, A. marginale, A. centrale, A. bovis, and A. phagocytophilum were not detected. Animals were severely infested by three tick species belonging to the genus Hyalomma (H. dromedarii, H. impeltatum, and H. excavatum). Alignment, similarity comparison, and phylogenetic analysis of the 16S rRNA sequence variants obtained in this study suggest that Tunisian dromedaries are infected by more than one novel Anaplasma strain genetically related to A. platys. This study reports the presence of novel Anaplasma sp. strains genetically related to A. platys in dromedaries from various bioclimatic areas of Tunisia. Findings raise new concerns about the specificity of the direct and indirect diagnostic tests routinely used to detect different Anaplasma species in ruminants and provide useful molecular information to elucidate the evolutionary history of bacterial species related to A. platys.

Anaplasma marginale and A. phagocytophilum in cattle in Tunisia.

PubMed

M'ghirbi, Youmna; Bèji, Marwa; Oporto, Beatriz; Khrouf, Fatma; Hurtado, Ana; Bouattour, Ali

2016-10-20

Tick-borne diseases caused by Anaplasma species put serious constraints on the health and production of domestic cattle in tropical and sub-tropical regions. After recovering from a primary infection, cattle typically become persistent carriers of pathogens and play a critical role in the epidemiology of the disease, acting as reservoirs of the Anaplasma spp. In this study a duplex PCR assay was used for the simultaneous detection of Anaplasma marginale and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in cattle using two primer pairs targeting msp4 and msp2 genes, respectively. We used this method to analyze DNA preparations derived from 328 blood cattle samples that were collected from 80 farms distributed among Tunisia's four bioclimatic zones. The prevalence of the A. marginale infection (24.7 %) was significantly higher and more widespread (in all bioclimatic areas) than that of A. phagocytophilum (0.6 %), which was found in a mixed infection with A. marginale. The duplex PCR assay used proved to be a rapid, specific and inexpensive mean for the simultaneous detection of Anaplasma marginale and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in cattle blood. It allowed us to report the identification of A. phagocytophilum for the first time in cattle in Tunisia and confirm the presence of A. marginale in cattle from several geographical areas of the country. Further epidemiological studies undertaken using this assay will help improve the surveillance of the associated diseases in the regions where they are endemic.

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2016-01-01

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Brook, Barry W; Hoskin, Conrad J; Pressey, Robert L; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E

2016-10-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. © 2016 The Author(s).

Significant Threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Lesk, C.; Coffel, E.; D'Amato, A. W.

2016-12-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Climate and soil type together explain the distribution of microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Nattier, Romain; Grandcolas, Philippe; Pellens, Roseli; Jourdan, Hervé; Couloux, Arnaud; Poulain, Simon; Robillard, Tony

2013-01-01

The grasshopper genus Caledonula, endemic to New Caledonia, was studied to understand the evolution of species distributions in relation to climate and soil types. Based on a comprehensive sampling of 80 locations throughout the island, the genus was represented by five species, four of which are new to science, of which three are described here. All the species have limited distributions in New Caledonia. Bioclimatic niche modelling shows that all the species were found in association with a wet climate and reduced seasonality, explaining their restriction to the southern half of the island. The results suggest that the genus was ancestrally constrained by seasonality. A molecular phylogeny was reconstructed using two mitochondrial and two nuclear markers. The partially resolved tree showed monophyly of the species found on metalliferous soils, and molecular dating indicated a rather recent origin for the genus. Adaptation to metalliferous soils is suggested by both morphological changes and radiation on these soils. The genus Caledonula is therefore a good model to understand the origin of microendemism in the context of recent and mixed influences of climate and soil type.

Potential habitat distribution for the freshwater diatom Didymosphenia geminata in the continental US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kumar, S.; Spaulding, S.A.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Hermann, K.A.; Schmidt, T.S.; Bahls, L.L.

2009-01-01

The diatom Didymosphenia geminata is a single-celled alga found in lakes, streams, and rivers. Nuisance blooms of D geminata affect the diversity, abundance, and productivity of other aquatic organisms. Because D geminata can be transported by humans on waders and other gear, accurate spatial prediction of habitat suitability is urgently needed for early detection and rapid response, as well as for evaluation of monitoring and control programs. We compared four modeling methods to predict D geminata's habitat distribution; two methods use presence-absence data (logistic regression and classification and regression tree [CART]), and two involve presence data (maximum entropy model [Maxent] and genetic algorithm for rule-set production [GARP]). Using these methods, we evaluated spatially explicit, bioclimatic and environmental variables as predictors of diatom distribution. The Maxent model provided the most accurate predictions, followed by logistic regression, CART, and GARP. The most suitable habitats were predicted to occur in the western US, in relatively cool sites, and at high elevations with a high base-flow index. The results provide insights into the factors that affect the distribution of D geminata and a spatial basis for the prediction of nuisance blooms. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Delineating Ecological Boundaries of Hanuman Langur Species Complex in Peninsular India Using MaxEnt Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Chetan, Nag; Praveen, Karanth K.; Vasudeva, Gururaja Kotambylu

2014-01-01

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula. PMID:24498377

Ecological niche modelling and nDNA sequencing support a new, morphologically cryptic beetle species unveiled by DNA barcoding.

PubMed

Hawlitschek, Oliver; Porch, Nick; Hendrich, Lars; Balke, Michael

2011-02-09

DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species.

Ecological Niche Modelling and nDNA Sequencing Support a New, Morphologically Cryptic Beetle Species Unveiled by DNA Barcoding

PubMed Central

Hawlitschek, Oliver; Porch, Nick; Hendrich, Lars; Balke, Michael

2011-01-01

Background DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. Methodology/Principal Findings The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. Conclusion/Significance In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species. PMID:21347370

Delineating ecological boundaries of Hanuman langur species complex in peninsular India using MaxEnt modeling approach.

PubMed

Nag, Chetan; Chetan, Nag; Karanth, K Praveen; Praveen, Karanth K; Gururaja, Kotambylu Vasudeva; Vasudeva, Gururaja Kotambylu

2014-01-01

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

Building a sustainable future: Bioclimatic house

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez Mallen, Esther; Rivera Fusalba, Oriol

2010-05-01

The application of bioclimatic principles is a critical factor in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. This poster develops a sequence of experiments and building working models in order to form students of secondary school and make progress towards real applications of new energy technologies. The activity has been carried out by 14 and 15-year-old students using a Power House building kit. Scientific method and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) were used as an effective system of acquiring new knowledge. Students were asked to form cooperative groups. Firstly, each group had to choose the best location and orientation in the imaginary Dragon Island for the construction of the house. The house consisted of eight Styrofoam parts and one transparent plastic part. The Styrofoam parts formed the house structure (floor, walls and roof) with two interior chambers and the attached greenhouse. Once the house was assembled in a few steps, it was ready for the students to start adding more components. Students then conducted several experiments related to the heat and light energy of the Sun and the energy of the wind. Some of the experiments and building projects realized were: how to capture the Sun to heat the house by passive solar heating, how to collect the Sun's rays to heat water using a Sun Collector and how to extract electricity current from Sun Power station and from wind power plant. For most of the assays it was necessary to record the temperature and students used for that purpose a temperature sensor that comes with Multilog Pro, a portable, graphic data collection and analysis system. Groups of students were really engaged in the project and each of them ran a different test with the house. Finally they proved if their initial hypothesis was correct and they had to expose the results to the rest of the class members. Students demonstrated how we can transform and use renewable forms of energy. With the experiments students demonstrated that the air can circulate between the house and the greenhouse through the windows. The heated air in the greenhouse rose through the windows into the main house. It was cooled off as it delivered heat and returned again to the greenhouse. It happened naturally due to the materials and the configuration of the house. A solar collector gathered heat from the Sun in order to heat water until 40° C, what was enough for showering, laundry, and washing dishes. Solar cells and homemade wind power unit delivered electricity to light up a small light bulb. With these experiments and building kit we explored and used natural, renewable forms of energy. These are forms of energy that we can use without damaging our natural environment and ourselves. Perhaps this kit will give students the incentive to build something on a larger scale after they have learned from the smaller scale model devices.

Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.

PubMed

Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Rousseau, Alain N; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Chouinard, Gérald

2016-07-01

Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC.

Spatial distribution of young forests and carbon fluxes within recent disturbances in Russia.

PubMed

Loboda, Tatiana V; Chen, Dong

2017-01-01

Forest stand age plays a major role in regulating carbon fluxes in boreal and temperate ecosystems. Young boreal forests represent a relatively small but persistent source of carbon to the atmosphere over 30 years after disturbance, while temperate forests switch from a substantial source over the first 10 years to a notable sink until they reach maturity. Russian forests are the largest contiguous forest belt in the world that accounts for 17% of the global forest cover; however, despite its critical role in controlling global carbon cycle, little is known about spatial patterns of young forest distribution across Russia as a whole, particularly before the year 2000. Here, we present a map of young (0-27 years of age) forests, where 12- to 27-year-old forests were modeled from the single-date 500 m satellite record and augmented with the 0- to 11-year-old forest map aggregated from the 30 m resolution contemporary record between 2001 and 2012. The map captures the distribution of forests with the overall accuracy exceeding 85% within three largest bioclimatic vegetation zones (northern, middle, and southern taiga), although mapping accuracy for disturbed classes was generally low (the highest of 31% for user's and producer's accuracy for the 12-27 age class and the maximum of 74% for user's and 32% for producer's accuracy for the 0-11 age class). The results show that 75.5 ± 17.6 Mha (roughly 9%) of Russian forests were younger than 30 years of age at the end of 2012. The majority of these 47 ± 4.7 Mha (62%) were distributed across the middle taiga bioclimatic zone. Based on the published estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) and the produced map of young forests, this study estimates that young Russian forests represent a total sink of carbon at the rate of 1.26 Tg C yr -1 . © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Study on morphology, quality and germination characteristics of Acanthopanax trifoliatus seeds under different habitats].

PubMed

Xiao, Juan

2014-05-01

To preliminary explore the difference of the morphological, quality and germinal characteristics of Acanthopanax trifoliatus seeds under different habitats. Collect the wild seeds from different habitats in West Mountain, and then observe their external appearances and internal structure, and test the thousand seeds weight,water content and seed vigor. What's more, the influence to germination rates of the seeds from different temperatures and light intensities in artificial bioclimatic chamber was studied. Orthogonal test in experimental plots was carried out to screen the different sowing dates, matrix types and soil depths which may influence germination rate. The external appearances and quality characteristics of wild seeds from three habitats were different. Seeds could germinate in the both light and dark, the germination rate of the habitat II was as high as 70.5% at the optimum temperature 20 degrees C in artificial bioclimatic chamber. The optimal combination A1, B1, C1 was screened out through orthogonal test, namely, the germination rate would be the highest when the seeds sowed in autumn covering with 2 cm depth of matrix type which component of the ratio of soil, sand and organic fertilizer was 6: 3: 1. There was significant difference in the morphology and germination rate of the three habitats seeds. The habitat II seeds were the optimal choice when culture seedling. The influences of different temperatures on germination rate were different, and the dried seeds should sow in current autumn, better than the next spring.

Use of bioclimatic indexes to characterize phenological phases of apple varieties in Northern Italy.

PubMed

Valentini, N; Me, G; Ferrero, R; Spanna, F

2001-11-01

The research was designed to characterize the phenological behaviour of different apple varieties and to compare different bioclimatic indexes in order to evaluate their adaptability in describing the phenological phases of fruit species. A field study on the requirement for chilling units (winter chilling requirement) and the accumulation of growing degree hours of 15 native apple cultivars was carried out in a fruit-growing area in North West Italy (Cuneo Province, Piedmont). From 1991 to 1993, climatic data were collected at meteorological stations installed in an experimental orchard (Verzuolo, Cuneo). Four methods were compared to determine the winter chilling requirement: Hutchins, Weinberger-Eggert, Utah and North Carolina. The Utah method was applied to determine the time when the chilling units accumulated become effective in meeting the rest requirements. A comparison of the different methods indicated that the Weinberger-Eggert method is the best: as it showed the lowest statistical variability during the 3 years of observations. The growing degree hour requirement (GDH) was estimated by the North Carolina method with two different base temperatures: 4.4 degrees C and 6.1 degrees C. More difficulties were met when the date of rest completion and the beginning of GDH accumulation was determined. The best base temperature for the estimation of GDH is 4.4 degrees C. Phenological and climatic characterizations are two basic tools for giving farmers and agricultural advisors important information about which varieties to choose and which are the best and the most correct cultivation practices to follow.

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients

PubMed Central

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages. PMID:26091266

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients.

PubMed

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages.

Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional and broadleaf tree species in Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Edwards, T.C.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Frescino, T.S.; Blackard, J.A.

2007-01-01

1. Compared to bioclimatic variables, remote sensing predictors are rarely used for predictive species modelling. When used, the predictors represent typically habitat classifications or filters rather than gradual spectral, surface or biophysical properties. Consequently, the full potential of remotely sensed predictors for modelling the spatial distribution of species remains unexplored. Here we analysed the partial contributions of remotely sensed and climatic predictor sets to explain and predict the distribution of 19 tree species in Utah. We also tested how these partial contributions were related to characteristics such as successional types or species traits. 2. We developed two spatial predictor sets of remotely sensed and topo-climatic variables to explain the distribution of tree species. We used variation partitioning techniques applied to generalized linear models to explore the combined and partial predictive powers of the two predictor sets. Non-parametric tests were used to explore the relationships between the partial model contributions of both predictor sets and species characteristics. 3. More than 60% of the variation explained by the models represented contributions by one of the two partial predictor sets alone, with topo-climatic variables outperforming the remotely sensed predictors. However, the partial models derived from only remotely sensed predictors still provided high model accuracies, indicating a significant correlation between climate and remote sensing variables. The overall accuracy of the models was high, but small sample sizes had a strong effect on cross-validated accuracies for rare species. 4. Models of early successional and broadleaf species benefited significantly more from adding remotely sensed predictors than did late seral and needleleaf species. The core-satellite species types differed significantly with respect to overall model accuracies. Models of satellite and urban species, both with low prevalence, benefited more from use of remotely sensed predictors than did the more frequent core species. 5. Synthesis and applications. If carefully prepared, remotely sensed variables are useful additional predictors for the spatial distribution of trees. Major improvements resulted for deciduous, early successional, satellite and rare species. The ability to improve model accuracy for species having markedly different life history strategies is a crucial step for assessing effects of global change. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional and broadleaf tree species in Utah

PubMed Central

ZIMMERMANN, N E; EDWARDS, T C; MOISEN, G G; FRESCINO, T S; BLACKARD, J A

2007-01-01

Compared to bioclimatic variables, remote sensing predictors are rarely used for predictive species modelling. When used, the predictors represent typically habitat classifications or filters rather than gradual spectral, surface or biophysical properties. Consequently, the full potential of remotely sensed predictors for modelling the spatial distribution of species remains unexplored. Here we analysed the partial contributions of remotely sensed and climatic predictor sets to explain and predict the distribution of 19 tree species in Utah. We also tested how these partial contributions were related to characteristics such as successional types or species traits. We developed two spatial predictor sets of remotely sensed and topo-climatic variables to explain the distribution of tree species. We used variation partitioning techniques applied to generalized linear models to explore the combined and partial predictive powers of the two predictor sets. Non-parametric tests were used to explore the relationships between the partial model contributions of both predictor sets and species characteristics. More than 60% of the variation explained by the models represented contributions by one of the two partial predictor sets alone, with topo-climatic variables outperforming the remotely sensed predictors. However, the partial models derived from only remotely sensed predictors still provided high model accuracies, indicating a significant correlation between climate and remote sensing variables. The overall accuracy of the models was high, but small sample sizes had a strong effect on cross-validated accuracies for rare species. Models of early successional and broadleaf species benefited significantly more from adding remotely sensed predictors than did late seral and needleleaf species. The core-satellite species types differed significantly with respect to overall model accuracies. Models of satellite and urban species, both with low prevalence, benefited more from use of remotely sensed predictors than did the more frequent core species. Synthesis and applications. If carefully prepared, remotely sensed variables are useful additional predictors for the spatial distribution of trees. Major improvements resulted for deciduous, early successional, satellite and rare species. The ability to improve model accuracy for species having markedly different life history strategies is a crucial step for assessing effects of global change. PMID:18642470

Soil Biota and Litter Decay in High Arctic Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, G.; Rivera, F.; Makarova, O.; Gould, W. A.

2006-12-01

Frost heave action contributes to the formation of non-sorted circles in the High Arctic. Non-sorted circles tend to heave more than the surrounding tundra due to deeper thaw and the formation of ice lenses. Thus, the geomorphology, soils and vegetation on the centers of the patterned-ground feature (non-sorted circles) as compared to the surrounding soils (inter-circles) can be different. We established a decomposition experiment to look at in situ decay rates of the most dominant graminoid species on non-sorted circles and adjacent inter-circle soils along a climatic gradient in the Canadian High Arctic as a component of a larger study looking at the biocomplexity of small-featured patterned ground ecosystems. Additionally, we investigated variation in soil chemical properties and biota, including soil microarthropods and microbial composition and biomass, as they relate to climate, topographic position, and litter decay rates. Our three sites locations, from coldest to warmest, are Isachsen, Ellef Ringnes Island (ER), NU (bioclimatic subzone A); Mould Bay (MB), Prince Patrick Island, NT (bioclimatic subzone B), and Green Cabin (GC), Aulavik National Park, Thomsen River, Banks Island, NT (bioclimatic subzone C). Our sample design included the selection of 15 non-sorted circles and adjacent inter-circle areas within the zonal vegetation at each site (a total of 90 sites), and a second set of 3 non-sorted circles and adjacent inter-circle areas in dry, mesic and wet tundra at each of the sites. Soil invertebrates were sampled at each site using both pitfall traps, soil microbial biomass was determined using substrate induced respiration and bacterial populations were determined using the most probable number method. Decomposition rates were measured using litterbags and as the percent of mass remaining of Carex misandra, Luzula nivalis and Alopecuris alpinus in GC, MB and ER, respectively. Our findings indicate these graminoid species decayed significantly over time at a rate of 10-15 % mass loss / yr during the first year of decay. Decay rates are different in non-sorted circles vs. inter-circle soils along the climatic gradient. In MB, L. nivalis seems to decay faster in the inter-circle soils than in non-sorted circles (0.05

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

PubMed

Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

2014-01-01

Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

PubMed Central

Baltensperger, A. P.; Huettmann, F.

2015-01-01

Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future. PMID:26207828

Canopy reflectance modeling in a tropical wooded grassland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonett, David

1988-01-01

The Li-Strahler canopy reflectance model, driven by LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data, provided regional estimates of tree size and density in two bioclimatic zones in Africa. This model exploits tree geometry in an inversion technique to predict average tree size and density from reflectance data using a few simple patameters measured in the field and in the imagery. Reflectance properties of the trees were measured in the study sites using a pole-mounted radiometer. The measurements showed that the assumptions of the simple Li-Strahler model are reasonable for these woodlands. The field radiometer measurements were used to calculate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the integrated NDVI over the canopy was related to crown volume. Predictions of tree size and density from the canopy model were used with allometric equations from the literature to estimate woody biomass and potential foliar biomass for the sites and for the regions. Estimates were compared with independent measurements made in the Sahelian sites, and to typical values from the literature for these regions and for similar woodlands. In order to apply the inversion procedure regionally, an area must first be stratified into woodland cover classes, and dry-season TM data were used to generate a stratum map of the study areas with reasonable accuracy. The method used was unsupervised classification of multi-data principal components images.

Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couce, E.; Irvine, P. J.; Gregorie, L. J.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

2013-05-01

Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of solar radiation management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various representative concentration pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. "Optimal" mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs overcool in a fully geoengineered (i.e., preindustrial global mean temperature) world.

Spatial variation of the Universal Thermal Climate Index in Lublin in specified weather scenarios / Zróżnicowanie przestrzenne wskaźnika UTCI w Lublinie w określonych scenariuszach pogodowych

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobek, Mateusz; Demczuk, Piotr; Nowosad, Marek

2013-06-01

Due to the diversified land relief and presence of numerous gorge dissections intensively used by man largely for recreational purposes, Lublin is a valuable study area in terms of bioclimatology. The results of modelling of the variation of the bioclimatic conditions of Lublin provide information useful e.g. in the economy and spatial planning. The determined features of the city's bioclimate can be a significant element in the selection of locations for new residential and recreational investments. Knowledge on the spatial variation of biometeorological situations positively and negatively influencing the human organism can also find application in activities concerning the improvement of life quality and health protection, as well as in tourism and recreation. The objective of the paper is to present the spatial variation of biometeorological conditions in Lublin based on the example of specified weather scenarios.

Climate and landscape in Italy during Late Epigravettian. The Late Glacial small mammal sequence of Riparo Tagliente (Stallavena di Grezzana, Verona, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berto, Claudio; Luzi, Elisa; Canini, Guido Montanari; Guerreschi, Antonio; Fontana, Federica

2018-03-01

The site of Riparo Tagliente (north-eastern Italy) contains one of the main Upper Pleistocene archaeological sequences of south-western Europe. It also represents a key site for the study of human adaptation to Late Glacial environmental changes in the southern Alpine area. These climatic and environmental conditions are here reconstructed based on small mammal assemblages, using the Bioclimatic model and Habitat Weighting methods. Climate proxies indicate a rise in temperature during the transition between HE1 and the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, while the landscape surrounding the shelter was still dominated by open grasslands. By comparing the data obtained from Riparo Tagliente with other coeval small mammal faunas from the Italian Peninsula and Europe we contribute to the reconstruction of the processes of faunal renewal registered during the Late Glacial across the continent and of the climatic and environmental context in which the Late Epigravettian hunter-gatherer groups lived.

The solonetzic process in surface soils and buried paleosols and its reflection in the mineralogical soil memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chizhikova, N. P.; Kovda, I. V.; Borisov, A. V.; Shishlina, N. I.

2009-10-01

The development of the solonetzic process in paleosols buried under kurgans and in the modern surface soils has been studied on the basis of the analysis of the clay (<1 µm) fraction. The revealed changes in the textural differentiation of the soils and the mineralogical composition of the clay fraction during 4500 years are assessed from the viewpoint of the “memory“ of the solid-phase soil components. The mineralogical characteristics show that the solonetzic process in the modern background soil is more developed. The mineralogical approach allows us to reveal the long-term changes in the soil status; it is less useful for studying the effect of short-term bioclimatic fluctuations. In the latter case, more labile soil characteristics should be used. The mineralogical method, combined with other methods, becomes more informative upon the study of soil chronosequences. Our studies have shown that the data on the clay minerals in the buried paleosols may contain specific information useful for paleoreconstructions that is not provided by other methods.

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queiros, A. M.

2016-02-01

Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an inter-disciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterise a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual level responses, while acidification has a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multi-scale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem.

PubMed

Queirós, Ana M; Fernandes, José A; Faulwetter, Sarah; Nunes, Joana; Rastrick, Samuel P S; Mieszkowska, Nova; Artioli, Yuri; Yool, Andrew; Calosi, Piero; Arvanitidis, Christos; Findlay, Helen S; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W L; Widdicombe, Stephen

2015-01-01

Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual-level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual-level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local-environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual-level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determination of The Walkability Comfort For Urban Green Space Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unal, M.; Uslu, C.; Altunkasa, M. F.

2016-12-01

Walkability relates to the ability of the places to connect people with varied destinations within a reasonable amount of time and effort, and to offer visual interest in journeys throughout the network. So, the good quality of the physical environment and arrangement of walkway and sidewalk appear to be more crucial in influencing the pedestrian route choice. Also, proximity, connectivity, and accessibility are significant factor for walkability in terms of an equal opportunity for using public spaces. As a result, there are two important points for walkability. Firstly the place should have a well-planned street network for accessible and secondly facilitate the pedestrian need for comfort. In this respect, this study aims to examine the both physical and bioclimatic comfort levels of the current condition of pedestrian route with reference to design criteria of a street to access the urban green spaces. These aspects have been identified as the main indicators for walkable streets such as continuity, materials, slope, bioclimatic condition, walkway width, greenery, and surface. Additionally, the aim was to identify the factors that need to be considered in future guidelines and policies for planning and design in urban spaces especially streets. So, a popular and most densely used neighbourhood park (Hayal Park) in Adana city were chosen as a study area. Adana is a province of Turkey located in south-central Anatolia. With a population of 2.2 million, it is the sixth most populous province in Turkey. This study workflow can be summarized in four stages: (1) environmental and physical data were collected by referred to literature and used in a weighted criteria method to determine the importance level of these data , (2) environmental characteristics of pedestrian routes gained from survey studies are evaluated to hierarchies these criteria of the collected information, (3) and then each pedestrian routes will have a score that provides comfortable access to the park, (4) finally, the comfortable routes to park will be mapped using GIS. It is hoped that this study will provide an insight into future development planning and design to create a friendly and more comfort street environment for the users.

An integrated and open source GIS environmental management system for a protected area in the south of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teodoro, A.; Duarte, L.; Sillero, N.; Gonçalves, J. A.; Fonte, J.; Gonçalves-Seco, L.; Pinheiro da Luz, L. M.; dos Santos Beja, N. M. R.

2015-10-01

Herdade da Contenda (HC), located in Moura municipality, Beja district (Alentejo province) in the south of Portugal (southwestern Iberia Peninsula), is a national hunting area with 5270ha. The development of an integrated system that aims to make the management of the natural and cultural heritage resources will be very useful for an effective management of this area. This integrated system should include the physical characterization of the territory, natural conservation, land use and land management themes, as well the cultural heritage resources. This paper presents a new tool for an integrated environmental management system of the HC, which aims to produce maps under a GIS open source environment (QGIS). The application is composed by a single button which opens a window. The window is composed by twelve menus (File, DRASTIC, Forest Fire Risk, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), Bioclimatic Index, Cultural Heritage, Fauna and Flora, Ortofoto, Normalizes Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Land Use Land Cover Cover (LULC) and Help. Several inputs are requires to generate these maps, e.g. DEM, geologic information, soil map, hydraulic conductivity information, LULC map, vulnerability and economic information, NDVI. Six buttons were added to the toolbar which allows to manipulate the information in the map canvas: Zoom in, Zoom out, Pan, Print/Layout and Clear. This integrated and open source GIS environment management system was developed for the HC area, but could be easily adapted to other natural or protected area. Despite the lack of data, the methodology presented fulfills the objectives.

Canopy reflectance modeling in a tropical wooded grassland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonett, David; Franklin, Janet

1986-01-01

Geometric/optical canopy reflectance modeling and spatial/spectral pattern recognition is used to study the form and structure of savanna in West Africa. An invertible plant canopy reflectance model is tested for its ability to estimate the amount of woody vegetation from remotely sensed data in areas of sparsely wooded grassland. Dry woodlands and wooded grasslands, commonly referred to as savannas, are important ecologically and economically in Africa, and cover approximately forty percent of the continent by some estimates. The Sahel and Sudan savannas make up the important and sensitive transition zone between the tropical forests and the arid Sahara region. The depletion of woody cover, used for fodder and fuel in these regions, has become a very severe problem for the people living there. LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data is used to stratify woodland and wooded grassland into areas of relatively homogeneous canopy cover, and then an invertible forest canopy reflectance model is applied to estimate directly the height and spacing of the trees in the stands. Because height and spacing are proportional to biomass in some cases, a successful application of the segmentation/modeling techniques will allow direct estimation of tree biomass, as well as cover density, over significant areas of these valuable and sensitive ecosystems. The model being tested in sites in two different bioclimatic zones in Mali, West Africa, will be used for testing the canopy model. Sudanian zone crop/woodland test sites were located in the Region of Segou, Mali.

Gisekia (Gisekiaceae): phylogenetic relationships, biogeography, and ecophysiology of a poorly known C₄ lineage in the Caryophyllales.

PubMed

Bissinger, Kerstin; Khoshravesh, Roxanne; Kotrade, Jan Peter; Oakley, Jason; Sage, Tammy L; Sage, Rowan F; Hartmann, Heidrun E K; Kadereit, Gudrun

2014-03-01

Gisekiaceae are a monogeneric family of the core Caryophyllales distributed in arid regions of Africa and Asia. The only widespread species of the genus, Gisekia pharnaceoides, performs C4 photosynthesis based on CO2 compensation point measurements. This study investigates the C4 syndrome and its evolution in Gisekia. The infrageneric relationships, distribution and bioclimatic preferences of Gisekia are also investigated. Leaf gas exchange characteristics, activity of Rubisco and major C4 cycle enzymes, and ultrastructural characteristics of mesophyll and bundle sheath cells are studied for Gisekia pharnaceoides. δ(13)C values and leaf anatomy are analyzed for all species. A dated molecular phylogeny of 39 accessions representing all species of Gisekiaceae and 14 representatives of closely related core Caryophyllales families is generated using four cp markers and ITS. The precise current distribution and bioclimatic niche of Gisekia is assessed on the basis of 520 georeferenced specimen localities. All traditionally recognized species of Gisekia are C4 plants with atriplicoid Kranz anatomy. Gisekia pharnaceoides uses the NAD-ME biochemical type. The molecular phylogeny demonstrated two East African clades nested within South African clades, demonstrating migration along the arid areas of eastern Africa during the Late Miocene/Pliocene Epochs. Most traditionally defined species are polyphyletic. Gisekia represents an isolated C4 lineage within core Caryophyllales dating back to the Miocene Epoch and probably spread along the African arid corridor from a South African center of origin. The seven currently recognized species should be treated as one polymorphic species or species complex, Gisekia pharnaceoides agg.

Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

2018-01-01

The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Watts, Michael J; Delean, Steven; Brook, Brook W; Heard, Lee M B; Bull, C M

2012-09-01

The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land-use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled-models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled-models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled-model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate-driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate-induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range-wide conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Applications of Remote Sensing to Alien Invasive Plant Studies

PubMed Central

Huang, Cho-ying; Asner, Gregory P.

2009-01-01

Biological invasions can affect ecosystems across a wide spectrum of bioclimatic conditions. Therefore, it is often important to systematically monitor the spread of species over a broad region. Remote sensing has been an important tool for large-scale ecological studies in the past three decades, but it was not commonly used to study alien invasive plants until the mid 1990s. We synthesize previous research efforts on remote sensing of invasive plants from spatial, temporal and spectral perspectives. We also highlight a recently developed state-of-the-art image fusion technique that integrates passive and active energies concurrently collected by an imaging spectrometer and a scanning-waveform light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system, respectively. This approach provides a means to detect the structure and functional properties of invasive plants of different canopy levels. Finally, we summarize regional studies of biological invasions using remote sensing, discuss the limitations of remote sensing approaches, and highlight current research needs and future directions. PMID:22408558

The climate and bioclimate of Bursa (Turkey) from the perspective of tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çalışkan, Onur; Çiçek, Ihsan; Matzarakis, Andreas

2012-02-01

Climate is an important resource for tourism and an equally important element that needs to be included in tourism promotions. This study reveals Bursa's bioclimatological conditions. These conditions were identified by using physiologically equivalent temperature and a Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme over 10-day periods and analyzing the mean thermal perception values that emerged. Evaluating bioclimatic conditions and meteorological parameters such as air temperature, duration of sunshine, number of wet days, amount of precipitation, and wind from the perspective of tourism will help people choose the best holiday times depending on their individual needs and circumstances.

A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

2009-09-01

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Major Native Non-Food Bioenergy Plants in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

2014-01-01

Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of “precipitation of the warmest quarter” and “annual mean temperature” were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China. PMID:25365425

Contemporary Remotely Sensed Data Products Refine Invasive Plants Risk Mapping in Data Poor Regions.

PubMed

Truong, Tuyet T A; Hardy, Giles E St J; Andrew, Margaret E

2017-01-01

Invasive weeds are a serious problem worldwide, threatening biodiversity and damaging economies. Modeling potential distributions of invasive weeds can prioritize locations for monitoring and control efforts, increasing management efficiency. Forecasts of invasion risk at regional to continental scales are enabled by readily available downscaled climate surfaces together with an increasing number of digitized and georeferenced species occurrence records and species distribution modeling techniques. However, predictions at a finer scale and in landscapes with less topographic variation may require predictors that capture biotic processes and local abiotic conditions. Contemporary remote sensing (RS) data can enhance predictions by providing a range of spatial environmental data products at fine scale beyond climatic variables only. In this study, we used the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and empirical maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models to model the potential distributions of 14 invasive plant species across Southeast Asia (SEA), selected from regional and Vietnam's lists of priority weeds. Spatial environmental variables used to map invasion risk included bioclimatic layers and recent representations of global land cover, vegetation productivity (GPP), and soil properties developed from Earth observation data. Results showed that combining climate and RS data reduced predicted areas of suitable habitat compared with models using climate or RS data only, with no loss in model accuracy. However, contributions of RS variables were relatively limited, in part due to uncertainties in the land cover data. We strongly encourage greater adoption of quantitative remotely sensed estimates of ecosystem structure and function for habitat suitability modeling. Through comprehensive maps of overall predicted area and diversity of invasive species, we found that among lifeforms (herb, shrub, and vine), shrub species have higher potential invasion risk in SEA. Native invasive species, which are often overlooked in weed risk assessment, may be as serious a problem as non-native invasive species. Awareness of invasive weeds and their environmental impacts is still nascent in SEA and information is scarce. Freely available global spatial datasets, not least those provided by Earth observation programs, and the results of studies such as this one provide critical information that enables strategic management of environmental threats such as invasive species.

Contemporary Remotely Sensed Data Products Refine Invasive Plants Risk Mapping in Data Poor Regions

PubMed Central

Truong, Tuyet T. A.; Hardy, Giles E. St. J.; Andrew, Margaret E.

2017-01-01

Invasive weeds are a serious problem worldwide, threatening biodiversity and damaging economies. Modeling potential distributions of invasive weeds can prioritize locations for monitoring and control efforts, increasing management efficiency. Forecasts of invasion risk at regional to continental scales are enabled by readily available downscaled climate surfaces together with an increasing number of digitized and georeferenced species occurrence records and species distribution modeling techniques. However, predictions at a finer scale and in landscapes with less topographic variation may require predictors that capture biotic processes and local abiotic conditions. Contemporary remote sensing (RS) data can enhance predictions by providing a range of spatial environmental data products at fine scale beyond climatic variables only. In this study, we used the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and empirical maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models to model the potential distributions of 14 invasive plant species across Southeast Asia (SEA), selected from regional and Vietnam’s lists of priority weeds. Spatial environmental variables used to map invasion risk included bioclimatic layers and recent representations of global land cover, vegetation productivity (GPP), and soil properties developed from Earth observation data. Results showed that combining climate and RS data reduced predicted areas of suitable habitat compared with models using climate or RS data only, with no loss in model accuracy. However, contributions of RS variables were relatively limited, in part due to uncertainties in the land cover data. We strongly encourage greater adoption of quantitative remotely sensed estimates of ecosystem structure and function for habitat suitability modeling. Through comprehensive maps of overall predicted area and diversity of invasive species, we found that among lifeforms (herb, shrub, and vine), shrub species have higher potential invasion risk in SEA. Native invasive species, which are often overlooked in weed risk assessment, may be as serious a problem as non-native invasive species. Awareness of invasive weeds and their environmental impacts is still nascent in SEA and information is scarce. Freely available global spatial datasets, not least those provided by Earth observation programs, and the results of studies such as this one provide critical information that enables strategic management of environmental threats such as invasive species. PMID:28555147

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

PubMed Central

Triviño, Maria; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar; Hickler, Thomas; Araújo, Miguel B.

2011-01-01

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species. PMID:22216263

Application of climatic indices to analyse viticultural suitability in Extremadura, south-western Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; de Salazar, Enrique Martínez

2016-01-01

Although climate is recognised as one of the main drivers of viticulture success, its main features have not been sufficiently described in many viticultural regions, including Extremadura, which contains one of the largest grapevine-growing areas in Europe. Using climatic data from 80 weather stations located throughout Extremadura, seven bioclimatic indices were calculated to estimate heat accumulation and potential water balance during the growing season and the thermal regime during the ripening of grapes. Differences in some climatic indices were found, and after a multivariate geographic analysis, four groups were delimited containing weather stations with similar climatic features, with variability between groups explained by heat accumulation and tempearture and thermal amplitude during the ripening season. Suitability for cultivation of grapevines without thermal restriction and temperate nights during the ripening period are the main characteristics of the weather stations studied, but spatial variability found in climatic potential denotes the importance of differentiating locations to properly relate the viticultural climate to grape quality factors and the style of wines produced. The climatic features of the four groups are very similar to those described in other viticultural regions, including those in close proximity to Extremadura and others worldwide, but few studies have used broad and updated temporal climate data for computing bioclimatic indices as in this case study. Finally, trends in climate indices were analysed. Results revealed that all groups have experienced warmer growing seasons, driven mainly by changes in minimum temperatures. This fact has numerous potential impacts, including changes in grapevine phenological timing, disruption of balanced composition in grapes (ultimately affecting wine characteristics), alterations in varieties grown and spatial changes in viable winegrape-growing zones.

New insights into thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties under changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, João A.; Costa, Ricardo; Fraga, Helder

2018-03-01

New decision support tools for Portuguese viticulture are urging under a climate change context. In the present study, heat and chilling accumulation conditions of a collection of 44 grapevine cultivars currently grown in Portugal are assessed at very high spatial resolution ( 1 km) and for 1981-2015. Two bioclimatic indices that incorporate non-linear plant-temperature relationships are selected for this purpose: growing degree hours—GDH (February-October) and chilling portions—CP (October-February). The current thermal growing conditions of each variety are examined and three clusters of grapevine cultivars are identified based on their GDH medians, thus assembling varieties with close heat accumulation requirements and providing more physiologically consistent information when compared to previous studies, as non-linear plant-temperature relationships are herein taken into account. These new clusters are also a complement to previous bioclimatic zoning. Ensemble mean projections under two anthropogenic-driven scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2041-2070), from four EURO-CORDEX simulations, reveal a widespread increase of GDH and decrease of CP, but with spatial heterogeneities. The spatial variability of these indices throughout Portugal is projected to decrease (strongest increases of GDH in the coolest regions of the northeast) and to increase (strongest decreases of CP in the warmest regions of the south and west), respectively. The typical heat accumulation conditions of each cluster are projected to gradually shift north-eastwards and to higher-elevation areas, whereas insufficient chilling may represent a new challenge in warmer future climates. An unprecedented level of detail for a large collection of grapevine varieties in Portugal is provided, thus promoting a better planning of climate change adaptation measures.

Influence of climate variability on acute myocardial infarction mortality in Havana, 2001-2012.

PubMed

Rivero, Alina; Bolufé, Javier; Ortiz, Paulo L; Rodríguez, Yunisleydi; Reyes, María C

2015-04-01

Death from acute myocardial infarction is due to many factors; influences on risk to the individual include habits, lifestyle and behavior, as well as weather, climate and other environmental components. Changing climate patterns make it especially important to understand how climatic variability may influence acute myocardial infarction mortality. Describe the relationship between climate variability and acute myocardial infarction mortality during the period 2001-2012 in Havana. An ecological time-series study was conducted. The universe comprised 23,744 deaths from acute myocardial infarction (ICD-10: I21-I22) in Havana residents from 2001 to 2012. Climate variability and seasonal anomalies were described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index (comprising variables of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure), along with series analysis to determine different seasonal-to-interannual climate variation signals. The role played by climate variables in acute myocardial infarction mortality was determined using factor analysis. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were used for trend analysis with a significance level of 5%. The strong association between climate variability conditions described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index and acute myocardial infarctions accounts for the marked seasonal pattern in AMI mortality. The highest mortality rate occurred during the dry season, i.e., the winter months in Cuba (November-April), with peak numbers in January, December and March. The lowest mortality coincided with the rainy season, i.e., the summer months (May-October). A downward trend in total number of deaths can be seen starting with the change point in April 2009. Climate variability is inversely associated with an increase in acute myocardial infarction mortality as is shown by the Bultó-1 index. This inverse relationship accounts for acute myocardial infarction mortality's seasonal pattern.

Assessment of heat tolerance and production performance of Aardi, Damascus, and their crossbred goats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samara, Emad Mohammed; Abdoun, Khalid Ahmed; Okab, Aly Bassunny; Al-Badwi, Mohammed Abdo; El-Zarei, Mohamed Fawzy; Al-Seaf, Ali Mohamed; Al-Haidary, Ahmed Abrahim

2016-09-01

The question of whether the adaptability and production performance in goats may be enhanced using a crossbreeding program between bucks of a native and heat-tolerant breed and does of an exotic and dual-purpose breed was approached and examined herein by comparing purebred Aardi and Damascus goats and their crossbred lines (i.e., 1/2 Aardi 1/2 Damascus (½A½D) and 1/4 Aardi 3/4 Damascus (¼A¾D)) reared in a region characterized by dry and hot bioclimatic conditions. Twenty-four male 6-month-old kids randomly segregated into four groups (six replicates/group) were used for the experiment. Climatic, thermo-physiological, biophysiological, metabolic, blood hematological, and biochemical measurements were all determined. The obtained results indicated that such a program was proven to be successful. This conclusion was demonstrated by the findings that crossbred goats (i.e., 1/2A1/2D and 1/4A3/4D) under such bioclimatic conditions were able to show ( P < 0.05) higher heat tolerance capabilities compared to purebred Damascus goats as well as manifested ( P < 0.05) higher production performance compared to the purebred Aardi goats. Accordingly, these evidences could emphasize that the crossbreeding may enable these animals to display a simultaneous improvement of both traits by the possible benefits that could arise from heterosis and breed complementarity. Researches dealing with this aspect may very well improve our understanding of goat's production and welfare under harsh environmental conditions. Future studies should include an economic analysis of traits that have the potential to impact the overall profitability to a vertically coordinated system.

Forest extent and deforestation in tropical Africa since 1900.

PubMed

Aleman, Julie C; Jarzyna, Marta A; Staver, A Carla

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of historical forest extent and associated deforestation rates are crucial for quantifying tropical carbon cycles and formulating conservation policy. In Africa, data-driven estimates of historical closed-canopy forest extent and deforestation at the continental scale are lacking, and existing modelled estimates diverge substantially. Here, we synthesize available palaeo-proxies and historical maps to reconstruct forest extent in tropical Africa around 1900, when European colonization accelerated markedly, and compare these historical estimates with modern forest extent to estimate deforestation. We find that forests were less extensive in 1900 than bioclimatic models predict. Resultantly, across tropical Africa, ~ 21.7% of forests have been deforested, yielding substantially slower deforestation than previous estimates (35-55%). However, deforestation was heterogeneous: West and East African forests have undergone almost complete decline (~ 83.3 and 93.0%, respectively), while Central African forests have expanded at the expense of savannahs (~ 1.4% net forest expansion, with ~ 135,270 km 2 of savannahs encroached). These results suggest that climate alone does not determine savannah and forest distributions and that many savannahs hitherto considered to be degraded forests are instead relatively old. These data-driven reconstructions of historical biome distributions will inform tropical carbon cycle estimates, carbon mitigation initiatives and conservation planning in both forest and savannah systems.

Process contributions of Australian ecosystems to interannual variations in the carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Trudinger, Cathy

2016-05-01

New evidence is emerging that semi-arid ecosystems dominate interannual variability (IAV) of the global carbon cycle, largely via fluctuating water availability associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Recent evidence from global terrestrial biosphere modelling and satellite-based inversion of atmospheric CO2 point to a large role of Australian ecosystems in global carbon cycle variability, including a large contribution from Australia to the record land sink of 2011. However the specific mechanisms governing this variability, and their bioclimatic distribution within Australia, have not been identified. Here we provide a regional assessment, based on best available observational data, of IAV in the Australian terrestrial carbon cycle and the role of Australia in the record land sink anomaly of 2011. We find that IAV in Australian net carbon uptake is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems in the east of the continent, whereas the 2011 anomaly was more uniformly spread across most of the continent. Further, and in contrast to global modelling results suggesting that IAV in Australian net carbon uptake is amplified by lags between production and decomposition, we find that, at continental scale, annual variations in production are dampened by annual variations in decomposition, with both fluxes responding positively to precipitation anomalies.

Environmental Niche Modelling of Phlebotomine Sand Flies and Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Identifies Lutzomyia intermedia as the Main Vector Species in Southeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Meneguzzi, Viviane Coutinho; dos Santos, Claudiney Biral; Leite, Gustavo Rocha; Fux, Blima; Falqueto, Aloísio

2016-01-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by sand flies. The state of Espírito Santo (ES), an endemic area in southeast Brazil, has shown a considerably high prevalence in recent decades. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) is a useful tool for predicting potential disease risk. In this study, ENM was applied to sand fly species and CL cases in ES to identify the principal vector and risk areas of the disease. Sand flies were collected in 466 rural localities between 1997 and 2013 using active and passive capture. Insects were identified to the species level, and the localities were georeferenced. Twenty-one bioclimatic variables were selected from WorldClim. Maxent was used to construct models projecting the potential distribution for five Lutzomyia species and CL cases. ENMTools was used to overlap the species and the CL case models. The Kruskal–Wallis test was performed, adopting a 5% significance level. Approximately 250,000 specimens were captured, belonging to 43 species. The area under the curve (AUC) was considered acceptable for all models. The slope was considered relevant to the construction of the models for all the species identified. The overlay test identified Lutzomyia intermedia as the main vector of CL in southeast Brazil. ENM tools enable an analysis of the association among environmental variables, vector distributions and CL cases, which can be used to support epidemiologic and entomological vigilance actions to control the expansion of CL in vulnerable areas. PMID:27783641

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Laituri, Melinda

2014-01-01

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

Why inputs matter: Selection of climatic variables for species distribution modelling in the Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrowski, Maria; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to provide first time analysis of the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region using species distribution modelling. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate conditions. Furthermore we evaluate the prediction ability of climate data derived from different statistical methods. GLMs were created using least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from two different climate models: 1) interpolated climate data (i.e. Worldclim, Hijmans et al., 2005) and 2) quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling (i.e. Chelsa; Karger et al., 2016). Model accuracy was evaluated by the ability to predict the potential species distribution range. We found that models based on variables of Chelsa climate data had higher predictive power, whereas models using Worldclim climate data consistently overpredicted the potential suitable habitat for Betula utilis. Although climatic variables of Worldclim are widely used in modelling species distribution, our results suggest to treat them with caution when remote regions like the Himalayan mountains are in focus. Unmindful usage of climatic variables for species distribution models potentially cause misleading projections and may lead to wrong implications and recommendations for nature conservation. References: Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N., Linder, H.P. & Kessler, M. (2016) Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface areas. arXiv:1607.00217 [physics].

Global decline in suitable habitat for Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis: the role of climate change.

PubMed

York, Emily M; Butler, Christopher J; Lord, Wayne D

2014-01-01

Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68-152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66-15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11-16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.

Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population.

PubMed

Alimi, Temitope O; Fuller, Douglas O; Qualls, Whitney A; Herrera, Socrates V; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quinones, Martha L; Lacerda, Marcus V G; Beier, John C

2015-08-20

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts. Employing presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent. Results from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km(2) of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km(2) by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution. As the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination.

Reconstructing the Mexican Tropical Dry Forests via an Autoecological Niche Approach: Reconsidering the Ecosystem Boundaries

PubMed Central

Prieto-Torres, David A.; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R.

2016-01-01

We used Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) of individual species of two taxonomic groups (plants and birds) in order to reconstruct the climatic distribution of Tropical Dry Forests (TDFs) in Mexico and to analyze their boundaries with other terrestrial ecosystems. The reconstruction for TDFs’ distribution was analyzed considering the prediction and omission errors based upon the combination of species, obtained from the overlap of individual models (only plants, only birds, and all species combined). Two verifications were used: a primary vegetation map and 100 independent TDFs localities. We performed a Principal Component (PCA) and Discriminant Analysis (DA) to evaluate the variation in the environmental variables and ecological overlap among ecosystems. The modeling strategies showed differences in the ecological patterns and prediction areas, where the “all species combined” model (with a threshold of ≥10 species) was the best strategy to use in the TDFs reconstruction. We observed a concordance of 78% with the primary vegetation map and a prediction of 98% of independent locality records. Although PCA and DA tests explained 75.78% and 97.9% of variance observed, respectively, we observed an important overlap among the TDFs with other adjacent ecosystems, confirming the existence of transition zones among them. We successfully modeled the distribution of Mexican TDFs using a number of bioclimatic variables and co-distributed species. This autoecological niche approach suggests the necessity of rethinking the delimitations of ecosystems based on the recognition of transition zones among them in order to understand the real nature of communities and association patterns of species. PMID:26968031

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.

PubMed

Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C

2013-01-01

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Life cycle assessment of two dwellings: one in Spain, a developed country, and one in Colombia, a country under development.

PubMed

Ortiz-Rodríguez, Oscar; Castells, Francesc; Sonnemann, Guido

2010-05-15

The main objective of this paper is to study and quantify the differences in energy consumption and environmental impacts of two dwellings during the full building life cycle: one in Spain, a developed country, and one in Colombia, a country under development. In both scenarios, we assessed the construction, use and end-of-life phases. Results show that the use phase in the Pamplona house (Colombia) represents a lower percentage for all impacts in the total than in the Barcelona house (Spain). The findings of this study showed that the difference in consumption in Colombia and Spanish dwellings analysed is not only due to the variation in results for bio-climatic differences but also because of the consumption habits in each country. The importance of consumption habits of citizens and the need to decouple socio-economic development from energy consumption are sought for achieving sustainability from a life cycle perspective. There is a crucial necessity to provide satisfaction to basic needs and comfort requirements of population with reasonable and sustainable energy consumption. Then, the type of standard dwelling varies substantially depending on the geographic location where it is built. Climate, technological, cultural, socio-economical differences clearly define the standard of a building in any context and in any region. However, the function is always the same, to provide protection and housing for its habitants. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

2012-04-01

Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Pandit, Shreejana

2018-01-01

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal. PMID:29360797

Predicting the potential distribution of main malaria vectors Anopheles stephensi, An. culicifacies s.l. and An. fluviatilis s.l. in Iran based on maximum entropy model.

PubMed

Pakdad, Kamran; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Vatandoost, Hassan; Sedaghat, Mohammad Mehdi; Raeisi, Ahmad; Moghaddam, Abdolreza Salahi; Foroushani, Abbas Rahimi

2017-05-01

Malaria is considered as a major public health problem in southern areas of Iran. The goal of this study was to predict best ecological niches of three main malaria vectors of Iran: Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. and Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. A databank was created which included all published data about Anopheles species of Iran from 1961 to 2015. The suitable environmental niches for the three above mentioned Anopheles species were predicted using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). AUC (area under Roc curve) values were 0.943, 0.974 and 0.956 for An. stephensi, An. culicifacies s.l. and An. fluviatilis s.l respectively, which are considered as high potential power of model in the prediction of species niches. The biggest bioclimatic contributor for An. stephensi and An. fluviatilis s.l. was bio 15 (precipitation seasonality), 25.5% and 36.1% respectively, followed by bio 1 (annual mean temperature), 20.8% for An. stephensi and bio 4 (temperature seasonality) with 49.4% contribution for An. culicifacies s.l. This is the first step in the mapping of the country's malaria vectors. Hence, future weather situation can change the dispersal maps of Anopheles. Iran is under elimination phase of malaria, so that such spatio-temporal studies are essential and could provide guideline for decision makers for IVM strategies in problematic areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact Assessment of Mikania Micrantha on Land Cover and Maxent Modeling to Predict its Potential Invasion Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baidar, T.; Shrestha, A. B.; Ranjit, R.; Adhikari, R.; Ghimire, S.; Shrestha, N.

2017-05-01

Mikania micrantha is one of the major invasive alien plant species in tropical moist forest regions of Asia including Nepal. Recently, this weed is spreading at an alarming rate in Chitwan National Park (CNP) and threatening biodiversity. This paper aims to assess the impacts of Mikania micrantha on different land cover and to predict potential invasion sites in CNP using Maxent model. Primary data for this were presence point coordinates and perceived Mikania micrantha cover collected through systematic random sampling technique. Rapideye image, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission data and bioclimatic variables were acquired as secondary data. Mikania micrantha distribution maps were prepared by overlaying the presence points on image classified by object based image analysis. The overall accuracy of classification was 90 % with Kappa coefficient 0.848. A table depicting the number of sample points in each land cover with respective Mikania micrantha coverage was extracted from the distribution maps to show the impact. The riverine forest was found to be the most affected land cover with 85.98 % presence points and sal forest was found to be very less affected with only 17.02 % presence points. Maxent modeling predicted the areas near the river valley as the potential invasion sites with statistically significant Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) value of 0.969. Maximum temperature of warmest month and annual precipitation were identified as the predictor variables that contribute the most to Mikania micrantha's potential distribution.

Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Skill at Reproducing Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinnis, S. A.; Tye, M. R.; Nychka, D. W.; Mearns, L. O.

2015-12-01

Climate model outputs usually have much coarser spatial resolution than is needed by impacts models. Although higher resolution can be achieved using regional climate models for dynamical downscaling, further downscaling is often required. The final resolution gap is often closed with a combination of spatial interpolation and bias correction, which constitutes a form of statistical downscaling. We use this technique to downscale regional climate model data and evaluate its skill in reproducing extreme events. We downscale output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset from its native 50-km spatial resolution to the 4-km resolution of University of Idaho's METDATA gridded surface meterological dataset, which derives from the PRISM and NLDAS-2 observational datasets. We operate on the major variables used in impacts analysis at a daily timescale: daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and winds. To interpolate the data, we use the patch recovery method from the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) regridding package. We then bias correct the data using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping (KDDM), which has been shown to exhibit superior overall performance across multiple metrics. Finally, we evaluate the skill of this technique in reproducing extreme events by comparing raw and downscaled output with meterological station data in different bioclimatic regions according to the the skill scores defined by Perkins et al in 2013 for evaluation of AR4 climate models. We also investigate techniques for improving bias correction of values in the tails of the distributions. These techniques include binned kernel density estimation, logspline kernel density estimation, and transfer functions constructed by fitting the tails with a generalized pareto distribution.

Timing and duration of autumn leaf development in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolmgren, Kjell

2014-05-01

The growing season is changing in both ends and autumn phases seem to be responding in more diverse ways than spring events. Indeed, we know little about autumn leaf phenological strategies and how they are correlated with fitness components or ecosystem properties, and how they vary between species and over bioclimatic gradients. In this study more than 10 000 students were involved in observing autumn leaf development at 378 sites all over Sweden (55-68°N). They followed an image based observation protocol classifying autumn leaf development into five levels, from summer green (level 0) to 100% autumn leaf colored (level 4) canopy. In total, they submitted almost 12 000 observations between August 9 and November 15. 75% of the observations were made on the common species of Populus tremula, Betula pendula/pubescens and Sorbus aucuparia. The expected (negative) correlation between latitude and start of leaf senescence (level 2) was found in Populus and Betula, but not in Sorbus. The duration of the leaf senescence period, defined as the period between 1/3 (level 2) and 100% (level 4) of the canopy autumn leaf colored, was negatively correlated with latitude in Populus and Betula, but not in Sorbus. There was also a strong (negative) correlation of the start (level 2) and the duration of the leaf senescence in the early senescing Sorbus and Betula, while this effect was weaker in the late senescing Populus.

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhen; Babst, Flurin; Bellassen, Valentin; Frank, David; Launois, Thomas; Tan, Kun; Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Diurnal variation of wind-chill at Thessaloniki, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balafoutis, Ch. J.

1989-12-01

The diurnal variations of wind-chill at Thessaloniki, Greece, are considered using hourly data from January 1960 to December 1977. This is the first attempt in Greece to describe bioclimatic conditions using wind-chill data. The hourly values of wind-chill were calculated by Siple-Passel's formula which still appears to be most widely used. The values of wind-chill are discussed in terms of Terjung's scale. Thessaloniki does not experience “frost-bite” conditions during the coldest months but does experience “warm” conditions during the summer period. A comparison of hourly and daily mean values show that the means do not indicate the real range of wind-chill during the day.

Chloroplast DNA analysis of Tunisian cork oak populations (Quercus suber L.): sequence variations and molecular evolution of the trnL (UAA)-trnF (GAA) region.

PubMed

Abdessamad, A; Baraket, G; Sakka, H; Ammari, Y; Ksontini, M; Hannachi, A Salhi

2016-10-24

Sequences of the trnL-trnF spacer and combined trnL-trnF region in chloroplast DNA of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) were analyzed to detect polymorphisms and to elucidate molecular evolution and demographic history. The aligned sequences varied in length and nucleotide composition. The overall ratio of transition/transversion (ti/tv) of 0.724 for the intergenic spacer and 0.258 for the pooled sequences were estimated, and indicated that transversions are more frequent than transitions. The molecular evolution and demographic history of Q. suber were investigated. Neutrality tests (Tajima's D and Fu and Li) ruled out the null hypothesis of a strictly neutral model, and Fu's Fs and Ramos-Onsins and Rozas' R2 confirmed the recent expansion of cork oak trees, validating its persistency in North Africa since the last glaciation during the Quaternary. The observed uni-modal mismatch distribution and the Harpending's raggedness index confirmed the demographic history model for cork oak. A phylogenetic dendrogram showed that the distribution of Q. suber trees occurs independently of geographical origin, the relief of the population site, and the bioclimatic stages. The molecular history and cytoplasmic diversity suggest that in situ and ex situ conservation strategies can be recommended for preserving landscape value and facing predictable future climatic changes.

Spatial distribution of sand fly species (Psychodidae: Phlebtominae), ecological niche, and climatic regionalization in zoonotic foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis, southwest of Iran.

PubMed

Ebrahimi, Sahar; Bordbar, Ali; Rastaghi, Ahmad R Esmaeili; Parvizi, Parviz

2016-06-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a complex vector-borne disease caused by Leishmania parasites that are transmitted by the bite of several species of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Monthly factor analysis of climatic variables indicated fundamental variables. Principal component-based regionalization was used for recognition of climatic zones using a clustering integrated method that identified five climatic zones based on factor analysis. To investigate spatial distribution of the sand fly species, the kriging method was used as an advanced geostatistical procedure in the ArcGIS modeling system that is beneficial to design measurement plans and to predict the transmission cycle in various regions of Khuzestan province, southwest of Iran. However, more than an 80% probability of P. papatasi was observed in rainy and temperate bio-climatic zones with a high potential of CL transmission. Finding P. sergenti revealed the probability of transmission and distribution patterns of a non-native vector of CL in related zones. These findings could be used as models indicating climatic zones and environmental variables connected to sand fly presence and vector distribution. Furthermore, this information is appropriate for future research efforts into the ecology of Phlebotomine sand flies and for the prevention of CL vector transmission as a public health priority. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.1.0): robust indices of radiation, evapotranspiration and plant-available moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Tyler W.; Prentice, I. Colin; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Thomas, Rebecca T.; Whitley, Rhys J.; Wang, Han; Evans, Bradley J.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Sykes, Martin T.; Cramer, Wolfgang

2017-02-01

Bioclimatic indices for use in studies of ecosystem function, species distribution, and vegetation dynamics under changing climate scenarios depend on estimates of surface fluxes and other quantities, such as radiation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, for which direct observations are sparse. These quantities can be derived indirectly from meteorological variables, such as near-surface air temperature, precipitation and cloudiness. Here we present a consolidated set of simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH) allowing robust approximations of key quantities at ecologically relevant timescales. We specify equations, derivations, simplifications, and assumptions for the estimation of daily and monthly quantities of top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation, net surface radiation, photosynthetic photon flux density, evapotranspiration (potential, equilibrium, and actual), condensation, soil moisture, and runoff, based on analysis of their relationship to fundamental climatic drivers. The climatic drivers include a minimum of three meteorological inputs: precipitation, air temperature, and fraction of bright sunshine hours. Indices, such as the moisture index, the climatic water deficit, and the Priestley-Taylor coefficient, are also defined. The SPLASH code is transcribed in C++, FORTRAN, Python, and R. A total of 1 year of results are presented at the local and global scales to exemplify the spatiotemporal patterns of daily and monthly model outputs along with comparisons to other model results.

An eco-epidemiological study of Morbilli-related paramyxovirus infection in Madagascar bats reveals host-switching as the dominant macro-evolutionary mechanism.

PubMed

Mélade, Julien; Wieseke, Nicolas; Ramasindrazana, Beza; Flores, Olivier; Lagadec, Erwan; Gomard, Yann; Goodman, Steven M; Dellagi, Koussay; Pascalis, Hervé

2016-04-12

An eco-epidemiological investigation was carried out on Madagascar bat communities to better understand the evolutionary mechanisms and environmental factors that affect virus transmission among bat species in closely related members of the genus Morbillivirus, currently referred to as Unclassified Morbilli-related paramyxoviruses (UMRVs). A total of 947 bats were investigated originating from 52 capture sites (22 caves, 18 buildings, and 12 outdoor sites) distributed over different bioclimatic zones of the island. Using RT-PCR targeting the L-polymerase gene of the Paramyxoviridae family, we found that 10.5% of sampled bats were infected, representing six out of seven families and 15 out of 31 species analyzed. Univariate analysis indicates that both abiotic and biotic factors may promote viral infection. Using generalized linear modeling of UMRV infection overlaid on biotic and abiotic variables, we demonstrate that sympatric occurrence of bats is a major factor for virus transmission. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that all paramyxoviruses infecting Malagasy bats are UMRVs and showed little host specificity. Analyses using the maximum parsimony reconciliation tool CoRe-PA, indicate that host-switching, rather than co-speciation, is the dominant macro-evolutionary mechanism of UMRVs among Malagasy bats.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation.

PubMed

Ancillotto, L; Santini, L; Ranc, N; Maiorano, L; Russo, D

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle (Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancillotto, L.; Santini, L.; Ranc, N.; Maiorano, L.; Russo, D.

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle ( Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

2013-01-01

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

2013-01-01

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

A bioclimatic characterization of high elevation habitats in the Alborz mountains of Iran.

PubMed

Noroozi, Jalil; Körner, Christian

2018-01-01

The Alborz mountains in N-Iran at 36° N rise from the Caspian Sea to 5671 m a.s.l., with warm-temperate, winter-deciduous forests in the lower montane belt in northern slopes, and vast treeless terrain at higher elevation. A lack of rainfall (ca. 550 mm at high elevations) cannot explain the absence of trees. Hence, it is an open question, which parts of these mountains belong to the alpine belt. Here we use bioclimatic data to estimate the position of the potential climatic treeline, and thus, define bioclimatologically, what is alpine and what is not. We employed the same miniature data loggers and protocol that had been applied in a Europe-wide assessment of alpine climates and a global survey of treeline temperatures. The data suggest a potential treeline position at ca. 3300 m a.s.l., that is ca. 900 m above the upper edge of the current oak forest, or 450 m above its highest outposts. The alpine terrain above the climatic treeline position shows a temperature regime comparable to sites in the European Alps. At the upper limit of angiosperm life, at 4850 m a.s.l., the growing season lasted 63 days with a seasonal mean root zone temperature of 4.5 °C. We conclude that (1) the absence of trees below 2850 m a.s.l. is clearly due to millennia of land use. The absence of trees between 2850 and 3300 m a.s.l. is either due to the absence of suitable tree taxa, or the only potential regional taxon for those elevations, Juniperus excelsa , had been eradicated by land use as well. (2) These continental mountains provide thermal life conditions in the alpine belt similar to other temperate mountains. (3) Topography and snow melt regimes play a significant role for the structure of the alpine vegetation mosaics.

Does prescribed burning result in biotic homogenization of coastal heathlands?

PubMed

Velle, Liv Guri; Nilsen, Liv Sigrid; Norderhaug, Ann; Vandvik, Vigdis

2014-05-01

Biotic homogenization due to replacement of native biodiversity by widespread generalist species has been demonstrated in a number of ecosystems and taxonomic groups worldwide, causing growing conservation concern. Human disturbance is a key driver of biotic homogenization, suggesting potential conservation challenges in seminatural ecosystems, where anthropogenic disturbances such as grazing and burning are necessary for maintaining ecological dynamics and functioning. We test whether prescribed burning results in biotic homogenization in the coastal heathlands of north-western Europe, a seminatural landscape where extensive grazing and burning has constituted the traditional land-use practice over the past 6000 years. We compare the beta-diversity before and after fire at three ecological scales: within local vegetation patches, between wet and dry heathland patches within landscapes, and along a 470 km bioclimatic gradient. Within local patches, we found no evidence of homogenization after fire; species richness increased, and the species that entered the burnt Calluna stands were not widespread specialists but native grasses and herbs characteristic of the heathland system. At the landscapes scale, we saw a weak homogenization as wet and dry heathland patches become more compositionally similar after fire. This was because of a decrease in habitat-specific species unique to either wet or dry habitats and postfire colonization by a set of heathland specialists that established in both habitat types. Along the bioclimatic gradient, species that increased after fire generally had more specific environmental requirements and narrower geographical distributions than the prefire flora, resulting in a biotic 'heterogenisation' after fire. Our study demonstrates that human disturbance does not necessarily cause biotic homogenization, but that continuation of traditional land-use practices can instead be crucial for the maintenance of the diversity and ecological function of a seminatural ecosystem. The species that established after prescribed burning were heathland specialists with relatively narrow geographical ranges. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

PubMed

Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

2014-06-01

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

PubMed Central

Butt, Nathalie; Pollock, Laura J; McAlpine, Clive A

2013-01-01

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure. PMID:24455132

Effects of amphibian phylogeny, climate and human impact on the occurrence of the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus.

PubMed

Bacigalupe, Leonardo D; Soto-Azat, Claudio; García-Vera, Cristobal; Barría-Oyarzo, Ismael; Rezende, Enrico L

2017-09-01

Chytridiomycosis, due to the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been associated with the alarming decline and extinction crisis of amphibians worldwide. Because conservation programs are implemented locally, it is essential to understand how the complex interactions among host species, climate and human activities contribute to Bd occurrence at regional scales. Using weighted phylogenetic regressions and model selection, we investigated geographic patterns of Bd occurrence along a latitudinal gradient of 1500 km within a biodiversity hot spot in Chile (1845 individuals sampled from 253 sites and representing 24 species), and its association with climatic, socio-demographic and economic variables. Analyses show that Bd prevalence decreases with latitude although it has increased by almost 10% between 2008 and 2013, possibly reflecting an ongoing spread of Bd following the introduction of Xenopus laevis. Occurrence of Bd was higher in regions with high gross domestic product (particularly near developed centers) and with a high variability in rainfall regimes, whereas models including other bioclimatic or geographic variables, including temperature, exhibited substantially lower fit and virtually no support based on Akaike weights. In addition, Bd prevalence exhibited a strong phylogenetic signal, with five species having high numbers of infected individuals and higher prevalence than the average of 13.3% across all species. Taken together, our results highlight that Bd in Chile might still be spreading south, facilitated by a subset of species that seem to play an important epidemiological role maintaining this pathogen in the communities, in combination with climatic and human factors affecting the availability and quality of amphibian breeding sites. This information may be employed to design conservation strategies and mitigate the impacts of Bd in the biodiversity hot spot of southern Chile, and similar studies may prove useful to disentangle the role of different factors contributing to the emergence and spread of this catastrophic disease. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecosystem composition changes over the past millennium: model simulations and comparison with paleoecological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Rollinson, C.; Dietze, M.; McLachlan, J. S.; Poulter, B.; Quaife, T. L.; Raiho, A.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Schaefer, K. M.; Steinkamp, J.; Moore, D. J.

2015-12-01

Over multi-decadal to multi-centennial timescales, ecosystem function and carbon storage is largely influenced by vegetation composition. The predictability of ecosystem responses to climate change thus depends on the understanding of long-term community dynamics. Our study aims to quantify the influence of the most relevant ecological factors that control plant distribution and abundance, in contemporary terrestrial biosphere models and in paleo-records, and constrain the model processes and parameters with paleoecological data. We simulated vegetation changes at 6 sites in the northeastern United States over the past 1160 years using 7 terrestrial biosphere models and variations (CLM4.5-CN, ED2, ED2-LU, JULES-TRIFFID, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, LPJ-wsl) driven by common paleoclimatic drivers. We examined plant growth, recruitment, and mortality (including other carbon turnover) of the plant functional types (PFTs) in the models, attributed the responses to three major factors (climate, competition, and disturbance), and estimated the relative effect of each factor. We assessed the model responses against plant-community theories (bioclimatic limits, niche difference, temporal variation and storage effect, and disturbance). We found that vegetation composition were sensitive to realized niche differences (e.g. differential growth response) among PFTs. Because many models assume unlimited dispersal and sometimes recruitment, the "storage effect" constantly affects community composition. Fire was important in determining the ecosystem composition, yet the vegetation to fire feedback was weak in the models. We also found that vegetation-composition changes in the simulations were driven to a much greater degree by growth as opposed to by turnover/mortality, when compared with those in paleoecological records. Our work suggest that 1) for forecasting slow changes in vegetation composition, we can use paleo-data to better quantify the realized niches of PFTs and associated uncertainties, and 2) for predicting abrupt changes in vegetation composition, we need to better implement processes of dynamic turnover and fire in current ecosystem models.

The Importance of Biologically Relevant Microclimates in Habitat Suitability Assessments

PubMed Central

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M. Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30°C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10°C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive. PMID:25115894

The importance of biologically relevant microclimates in habitat suitability assessments.

PubMed

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30 °C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10 °C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive.

A Multi-Scale Distribution Model for Non-Equilibrium Populations Suggests Resource Limitation in an Endangered Rodent

PubMed Central

Bean, William T.; Stafford, Robert; Butterfield, H. Scott; Brashares, Justin S.

2014-01-01

Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define “available” habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining “available” habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and temporal scales relevant to theoretical and applied ecologists. PMID:25237807

Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia.

PubMed

Ferro, Cristina; López, Marla; Fuya, Patricia; Lugo, Ligia; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; González, Camila

2015-01-01

Leishmania is transmitted by Phlebotominae insects that maintain the enzootic cycle by circulating between sylvatic and domestic mammals; humans enter the cycles as accidental hosts due to the vector's search for blood source. In Colombia, leishmaniasis is an endemic disease and 95% of all cases are cutaneous (CL), these cases have been reported in several regions of the country where the intervention of sylvatic areas by the introduction of agriculture seem to have an impact on the rearrangement of new transmission cycles. Our study aimed to update vector species distribution in the country and to analyze the relationship between vectors' distribution, climate, land use and CL prevalence. A database with geographic information was assembled, and ecological niche modeling was performed to explore the potential distribution of each of the 21 species of medical importance in Colombia, using thirteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic and three principal components derived from NDVI. Binary models for each species were obtained and related to both land use coverage, and a CL prevalence map with available epidemiological data. Finally, maps of species potential distribution were summed to define potential species richness in the country. In total, 673 single records were obtained with Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psychodopygus panamensis, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia evansi the species with the highest number of records. Eighteen species had significant models, considering the area under the curve and the jackknife results: L. gomezi and P. panamensis had the widest potential distribution. All sand fly species except for Nyssomyia antunesi are mainly distributed in regions with rates of prevalence between 0.33 to 101.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 76% of collection data points fall into transformed ecosystems. Distribution ranges of sand flies with medical importance in Colombia correspond predominantly to disturbed areas, where the original land coverage is missing therefore increasing the domiciliation potential. We highlight the importance of the use of distribution maps as a tool for the development of strategies for prevention and control of diseases.

Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia

PubMed Central

Ferro, Cristina; López, Marla; Fuya, Patricia; Lugo, Ligia; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; González, Camila

2015-01-01

Background Leishmania is transmitted by Phlebotominae insects that maintain the enzootic cycle by circulating between sylvatic and domestic mammals; humans enter the cycles as accidental hosts due to the vector’s search for blood source. In Colombia, leishmaniasis is an endemic disease and 95% of all cases are cutaneous (CL), these cases have been reported in several regions of the country where the intervention of sylvatic areas by the introduction of agriculture seem to have an impact on the rearrangement of new transmission cycles. Our study aimed to update vector species distribution in the country and to analyze the relationship between vectors’ distribution, climate, land use and CL prevalence. Methods A database with geographic information was assembled, and ecological niche modeling was performed to explore the potential distribution of each of the 21 species of medical importance in Colombia, using thirteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic and three principal components derived from NDVI. Binary models for each species were obtained and related to both land use coverage, and a CL prevalence map with available epidemiological data. Finally, maps of species potential distribution were summed to define potential species richness in the country. Results In total, 673 single records were obtained with Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psychodopygus panamensis, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia evansi the species with the highest number of records. Eighteen species had significant models, considering the area under the curve and the jackknife results: L. gomezi and P. panamensis had the widest potential distribution. All sand fly species except for Nyssomyia antunesi are mainly distributed in regions with rates of prevalence between 0.33 to 101.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 76% of collection data points fall into transformed ecosystems. Discussion Distribution ranges of sand flies with medical importance in Colombia correspond predominantly to disturbed areas, where the original land coverage is missing therefore increasing the domiciliation potential. We highlight the importance of the use of distribution maps as a tool for the development of strategies for prevention and control of diseases. PMID:26431546

Soil cover patterns influence on the land environmental functions, agroecological quality, land-use and monitoring efficiency in the Central Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasenev, Ivan; Yashin, Ivan; Lukin, Sergey; Valentini, Riccardo

2015-04-01

First decades of XXI century actualized for soil researches the principal methodical problem of most modern geosciences: what spatial and temporal scale would be optimal for land quality evaluation and land-use practice optimizing? It is becoming obvious that this question cannot have one solution and have to be solved with especial attention on the features of concrete region and landscape, land-use history and practical issues, land current state and environmental functions, soil cover patterns and variability, governmental requirements and local society needs, best available technologies and their potential profitability. Central Russia is one of the most dynamical economic regions with naturally high and man-made complicated landscape and soil cover variability, long-term land-use history and self-contradictory issues, high potential of profitable farming and increased risks of land degradation. Global climate and technological changes essentially complicate the originally high and sharply increased in XX century farming land heterogeneity in the Central Russia that actualizes system analysis of its zonal, intra-zonal and azonal soil cover patterns according to their influence on land environmental functions, agroecological quality, and land-use and monitoring efficiency variability. Developed by the Laboratory of agroecological monitoring, ecosystem modeling & prediction (LAMP / RTSAU with support of RF Governmental projects #11.G34.31.0079 and #14.120.14.4266) regional systems of greenhouse gases environmental monitoring RusFluxNet (6 fixed & 1 mobile eddy covariance stations with zonal functional sets of key plots with chamber investigations in 5 Russian regions) and of agroecological monitoring (in representative key plots with different farming practice in 9 RF regions) allow to do this analysis in frame of enough representative regional multi-factorial matrix of soil cover patterns, bioclimatic conditions, landscape features, and land-use history and current practice versions. Well-elaborated monitoring collaboration with the principal natural reserves in south-taiga and forest-steppe zones provides process-based interaction with long-term data on zonal climatic, landscape and soil features necessary to test the process, functional and evaluation models in the specific conditions of each bioclimatic zone. The dominated erosion and dehumification trends have been essentially activated for last 3-4 decades due to hu¬mus negative balance around 0.6-0.7 t ha-1year-1 and connected disaggregation with annual rate between 1 and 25 g/kg for aggregates 10-0.25 mm. "Standard" monitoring objects and regionally generalized data showed characteristic for Chernozems 2-2.5 % humus drop during this period and active processes of CO2 emission and humus eluvial-illuvial profile redistribution too. Forest-steppe Chernozems are usually characterized by higher stability than steppe ones. The ratio between erosive and biological losses in humus stock can be ten¬tatively estimated as fifty-fifty with essential variability within slope landscape. Both these processes have essential impacts on different sets of soil environmental and agroecological functions (including atmospheric air, surface and ground water quality, biodiversity and profitability) that we need to understand and predict. A drop of humus content below threshold values (for different soils between 1.5 and 6%) considerably reduces not only soil environmental regulation functions but also effectiveness of used fertilizers, crop yield quality and possibility of sustainable agricultural land-use. The carried out long-term researches of representative natural, rural and urban landscapes in Tver, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Moscow, Kaluga, Kursk, Belgorod, Tambov, Voronezh and Saratov regions give us validation and ranging of the limiting factors of the elementary soil cover patterns current features and transformation processes, environmental functions and agroecological quality, monitoring results functional interpretation, spatial and temporal interpolation and extrapolation. These data allow essentially improve our understanding and quantitative assessments of the regional and within-field variability of land agroecological and environmental functions that is crucial for agroecosystem services evaluation, current and planned land-use environmental impacts, and DSS development for land-use agroecological optimizing taking into attention the regional and local landscapes features and most realistic scenarios of climate change and agro-technology transfer. Developed and verified within the project regionally adapted DSS (ACORD-R - RF #2012612944) gives effective informational and methodological support for land-use agroecological optimization.

Testing for a CO2 fertilization effect on growth of Canadian boreal forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girardin, Martin P.; Bernier, Pierre Y.; Raulier, FréDéRic; Tardif, Jacques C.; Conciatori, France; Guo, Xiao Jing

2011-03-01

The CO2 fertilization hypothesis stipulates that rising atmospheric CO2 has a direct positive effect on net primary productivity (NPP), with experimental evidence suggesting a 23% growth enhancement with a doubling of CO2. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing a bioclimatic model simulation of NPP over the twentieth century against tree growth increment (TGI) data of 192 Pinus banksiana trees from the Duck Mountain Provincial Forest in Manitoba, Canada. We postulate that, if a CO2 fertilization effect has occurred, climatically driven simulations of NPP and TGI will diverge with increasing CO2. We use a two-level scaling approach to simulate NPP. A leaf-level model is first used to simulate high-frequency responses to climate variability. A canopy-level model of NPP is then adjusted to the aggregated leaf-level results and used to simulate yearly plot-level NPP. Neither model accounts for CO2 fertilization. The climatically driven simulations of NPP for 1912-2000 are effective for tracking the measured year-to-year variations in TGI, with 47.2% of the variance in TGI reproduced by the simulation. In addition, the simulation reproduces without divergence the positive linear trend detected in TGI over the same period. Our results therefore do not support the attribution of a portion of the historical linear trend in TGI to CO2 fertilization at the level suggested by current experimental evidence. A sensitivity analysis done by adding an expected CO2 fertilization effect to simulations suggests that the detection limit of the study is for a 14% growth increment with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate

PubMed Central

Moran, Jonathan A.; Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. Methods A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, ‘wet’ syndrome and ‘dry’ syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Key Results Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and ‘wet’ syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and‘dry’ syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. Conclusions The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy. PMID:23975653

Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate.

PubMed

Moran, Jonathan A; Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin

2013-11-01

Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, 'wet' syndrome and 'dry' syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and 'wet' syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and'dry' syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy.

Use of Anecdotal Occurrence Data in Species Distribution Models: An Example Based on the White-Nosed Coati (Nasua narica) in the American Southwest

PubMed Central

Frey, Jennifer K.; Lewis, Jeremy C.; Guy, Rachel K.; Stuart, James N.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary We evaluated the influence of occurrence records with different reliability on predicted distribution of a unique, rare mammal in the American Southwest, the white-nosed coati (Nasua narica). We concluded that occurrence datasets that include anecdotal records can be used to infer species distributions, providing such data are used only for easily-identifiable species and based on robust modeling methods such as maximum entropy. Use of a reliability rating system is critical for using anecdotal data. Abstract Species distributions are usually inferred from occurrence records. However, these records are prone to errors in spatial precision and reliability. Although influence of spatial errors has been fairly well studied, there is little information on impacts of poor reliability. Reliability of an occurrence record can be influenced by characteristics of the species, conditions during the observation, and observer’s knowledge. Some studies have advocated use of anecdotal data, while others have advocated more stringent evidentiary standards such as only accepting records verified by physical evidence, at least for rare or elusive species. Our goal was to evaluate the influence of occurrence records with different reliability on species distribution models (SDMs) of a unique mammal, the white-nosed coati (Nasua narica) in the American Southwest. We compared SDMs developed using maximum entropy analysis of combined bioclimatic and biophysical variables and based on seven subsets of occurrence records that varied in reliability and spatial precision. We found that the predicted distribution of the coati based on datasets that included anecdotal occurrence records were similar to those based on datasets that only included physical evidence. Coati distribution in the American Southwest was predicted to occur in southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona and was defined primarily by evenness of climate and Madrean woodland and chaparral land-cover types. Coati distribution patterns in this region suggest a good model for understanding the biogeographic structure of range margins. We concluded that occurrence datasets that include anecdotal records can be used to infer species distributions, providing such data are used only for easily-identifiable species and based on robust modeling methods such as maximum entropy. Use of a reliability rating system is critical for using anecdotal data. PMID:26487405

Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

PubMed

Sieck, Mungla; Ibisch, Pierre L; Moloney, Kirk A; Jeltsch, Florian

2011-05-03

Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation

PubMed Central

Schneider, Richard R.; Bayne, Erin M.

2015-01-01

Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous. PMID:25978759

Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

PubMed

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

2012-01-01

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

The Effect of Large Scale Climate Oscillations on the Land Surface Phenology of the Northern Polar Regions and Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Owsley, B.; Sokolik, I. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface phenology metrics allow for the summarization of long image time series into a set of annual observations that describe the vegetated growing season. These metrics have been shown to respond to both large scale climatic and anthropogenic impacts. In this study we assemble a time series (2001 - 2014) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance data and land surface temperature data at 0.05º spatial resolution. We then derive land surface phenology metrics focusing on the peak of the growing season by fitting quadratic regression models using NDVI and Accumulated Growing Degree-Days (AGDD) derived from land surface temperature. We link the annual information on the peak timing, the thermal time to peak and the maximum of the growing season with five of the most important large scale climate oscillations: NAO, AO, PDO, PNA and ENSO. We demonstrate several significant correlations between the climate oscillations and the land surface phenology peak metrics for a range of different bioclimatic regions in both dryland Central Asia and the northern Polar Regions. We will then link the correlation results with trends derived by the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend detection method applied to several satellite derived vegetation and albedo datasets.

Neoendemism in Madagascan scaly tree ferns results from recent, coincident diversification bursts.

PubMed

Janssen, Thomas; Bystriakova, Nadia; Rakotondrainibe, France; Coomes, David; Labat, Jean-Noël; Schneider, Harald

2008-08-01

More than 80% of Madagascar's 12,000 plant species are endemic with the degree of endemism reaching as much as 95% in the scaly tree ferns, an important species rich component of Madagascar's evergreen rainforests. Predominantly African or Asian ancestry and divergence times usually postdating the separation of Madagascar from the Gondwanan landmasses have been demonstrated for several Madagascan animal and angiosperm groups. However, evolutionary studies of rainforest-specific lineages are scarce and the ecological context of radiation events has rarely been investigated. Here, we examine the evolution of Madagascan tree ferns as a rainforest-specific model family, integrate results from bioclimatic niche analysis with a dated phylogenetic framework, and propose an evolutionary scenario casting new light on our knowledge of the evolution of large island endemic clades. We show that Madagascar's extant tree fern diversity springs from three distinct ancestors independently colonizing Madagascar in the Miocene and that these three monophyletic clades diversified in three coincident radiation bursts during the Pliocene, reaching exceptionally high diversification rates and most likely responding to a common climatic trigger. Recent diversification bursts may thus have played a major role in the evolution of the extant Madagascan rainforest biome, which hence contains a significant number of young, neoendemic taxa.

Stable isotopic compositions of carbon in vegetation and soil organic matter along the bioclimatic transect, North Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovda, Irina; Morgun, Evgeny; Golubeva, Natalia

2010-05-01

Stable isotopic composition of carbon in plant species and soil organic matter was investigated along the bioclimatic transect in the North Caucasus. The aim of this research was to find the possible shift of stable isotopic composition of carbon reflecting the gradual successive changes of landscapes connected with the changes of climatic conditions (temperature, precipitation, air humidity) at a various absolute heights above sea level i.e. along the vertical zonation. The study site was located in the North Caucasus near Arkhiz, Big Zelentchuk valley (43o33-40'N; 41o16-27'E). Soil and vegetation samples were collected along Precaucasus and Caucasus slopes at an absolute heights interval of 1280 - 2065 m. Soils are formed at eluvo-deluvium of noncarbonated silicate massive rocks under warm temperate climate with MAT 4-5oC and MAP ~ 860 mm and more. Samples of vegetation (whole grasses and tree leaves) represented several altitudinal vegetation belts including forest and subalpine belts with coniferous (pine, spruce, fir), mixed coniferous-deciduous (fir + beech), broad-leaved (beech, maple), small-leaved (birch, aspen) forests, elfin birch wood and subalpine meadows. Stable isotope composition of carbon was determined using IRMS Finnigan Delta V+. Stable isotopic composition of vegetal species ranges from -33.04 to -27.29 o/oo with the general trend of lighter δ13С with the decreasing of absolute heights. The most heavier δ13С = ~ -27o/oo were found in subalpine meadow plants, while at a smaller altitudes in the forest belt δ13С shifts to ~ 30-31, and up to ~ - 32-33o/oo. More clear regularities were found for vegetation specimens grouped into three categories such as "trees", "grasses" and "litter". δ13С of each category clearly shifts to the lighter values with the decrease of absolute heights i.e from subalpine meadows to spruce-broad-leaved forests. δ13С shift is about 2,49o/oo for trees, 1,75-4,92 o/oo for grasses and ~ 1,8 o/oo for the litter. The complimentary determination of δ15N have shown large variability from -3,59 to + 18,24o/oo which corresponds with the expected large variation of δ15N of plant debris and general trend of lighter δ15N during the decomposition. δ13С of soil organic matter varies from -28.92 to -24.99 o/oo. The similar trend for lighter stable isotopic composition of carbon at a lower absolute heights i.e. in forest belt was found for soil organic matter. The whole picture of δ13С values in soil samples is quite complicated and needs further investigation. As a result, the isotopic characteristic of carbon and nitrogen in vegetal specimens, and carbon in soil organic matter were obtained along a bioclimatic topocatena. The general trend of lighter C isotopic composition was found. It is known that lighter isotopic composition correlates with cooler and/or wetter climate. While the temperature gradually decreases upward, the changes of precipitation are not linear. Further research is needed to better explain the variation of stable isotopic compositions in dependence of those climatic factors. This research was supported by the Presidium of Russian Academy of Sciences, Program 14

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

PubMed

Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region. PMID:26619186

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Loh, Rhonda; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan; McDaniel, Sierra; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-01-01

Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.

Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Kodis, Mali'o; Galante, Peter; Sterling, Eleanor J; Blair, Mary E

2018-04-26

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment-only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-01-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Leptospirosis in Mexico: Epidemiology and Potential Distribution of Human Cases

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Montes, Sokani; Espinosa-Martínez, Deborah V.; Ríos-Muñoz, César A.; Berzunza-Cruz, Miriam; Becker, Ingeborg

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis is widespread in Mexico, yet the potential distribution and risk of the disease remain unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings We analysed morbidity and mortality according to age and gender based on three sources of data reported by the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Geography and Statics of Mexico, for the decade 2000–2010. A total of 1,547 cases were reported in 27 states, the majority of which were registered during the rainy season, and the most affected age group was 25–44 years old. Although leptospirosis has been reported as an occupational disease of males, analysis of morbidity in Mexico showed no male preference. A total number of 198 deaths were registered in 21 states, mainly in urban settings. Mortality was higher in males (61.1%) as compared to females (38.9%), and the case fatality ratio was also increased in males. The overall case fatality ratio in Mexico was elevated (12.8%), as compared to other countries. We additionally determined the potential disease distribution by examining the spatial epidemiology combined with spatial modeling using ecological niche modeling techniques. We identified regions where leptospirosis could be present and created a potential distribution map using bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation. Our data show that the distribution of the cases was more related to temperature (75%) than to precipitation variables. Ecological niche modeling showed predictive areas that were widely distributed in central and southern Mexico, excluding areas characterized by extreme climates. Conclusions/Significance In conclusion, an epidemiological surveillance of leptospirosis is recommended in Mexico, since 55.7% of the country has environmental conditions fulfilling the criteria that favor the presence of the disease. PMID:26207827

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain. PMID:27248830

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Revisiting the universal scaling hypothesis: do all plants respond similarly to aridification?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caddy-Retalic, S.; McInerney, F. A.; Lowe, A. J.; Prentice, I. C.; Wardle, G. M.

2016-12-01

Our limited understanding of how plants respond to aridification is a major barrier to predicting the future composition and distribution of global flora. Measurement of stable carbon isotope ratios in leaves is an established methodology for detecting water stress. Measuring carbon isotope ratios on aridity gradients has the potential to be used to determine the relative sensitivity of many co-occurring species. By comparing the slopes of the relationship between isotope ratios and mean annual precipitation (MAP) between species and to a common slope for all plants in a region, we can test for consistency in aridity sensitivity between different species, growth forms, local environment and continents. We present data from 1329 individual plants of 204 C3 species collected on two bioclimatic gradients: one in China (145-710mm MAP) and one in South Australia (160-980mm MAP). In examining differences between plants of different types and origins, we test the universal scaling hypothesis postulated by Prentice et al. (2010), which suggests that C3 plants have similar patterns of stomatal adjustment, irrespective of phylogeny and traits, including life form. If universal scaling were supported, plant attributes could be disregarded for the purposes of modeling community and regional ecophysiology. We find that less than a third of tested species conform to the universal scaling model, and postulate a new model of four response modes: regional scaling, biotic homeostasis, insensitive response and contrary response. We discuss potential mechanisms for each response mode and their ecological ramifications. Finally, we consider the broader utility for these data, including environmental monitoring and combining isotope data with species distributions to improve predictive vegetation mapping under future climate change scenarios.

Leptospirosis in Mexico: Epidemiology and Potential Distribution of Human Cases.

PubMed

Sánchez-Montes, Sokani; Espinosa-Martínez, Deborah V; Ríos-Muñoz, César A; Berzunza-Cruz, Miriam; Becker, Ingeborg

2015-01-01

Leptospirosis is widespread in Mexico, yet the potential distribution and risk of the disease remain unknown. We analysed morbidity and mortality according to age and gender based on three sources of data reported by the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Geography and Statics of Mexico, for the decade 2000-2010. A total of 1,547 cases were reported in 27 states, the majority of which were registered during the rainy season, and the most affected age group was 25-44 years old. Although leptospirosis has been reported as an occupational disease of males, analysis of morbidity in Mexico showed no male preference. A total number of 198 deaths were registered in 21 states, mainly in urban settings. Mortality was higher in males (61.1%) as compared to females (38.9%), and the case fatality ratio was also increased in males. The overall case fatality ratio in Mexico was elevated (12.8%), as compared to other countries. We additionally determined the potential disease distribution by examining the spatial epidemiology combined with spatial modeling using ecological niche modeling techniques. We identified regions where leptospirosis could be present and created a potential distribution map using bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation. Our data show that the distribution of the cases was more related to temperature (75%) than to precipitation variables. Ecological niche modeling showed predictive areas that were widely distributed in central and southern Mexico, excluding areas characterized by extreme climates. In conclusion, an epidemiological surveillance of leptospirosis is recommended in Mexico, since 55.7% of the country has environmental conditions fulfilling the criteria that favor the presence of the disease.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-09-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Effects of UV-B radiation on leaf hair traits of invasive plants-Combining historical herbarium records with novel remote sensing data.

PubMed

Václavík, Tomáš; Beckmann, Michael; Cord, Anna F; Bindewald, Anja M

2017-01-01

Ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation is a key but under-researched environmental factor that initiates diverse responses in plants, potentially affecting their distribution. To date, only a few macroecological studies have examined adaptations of plant species to different levels of UV-B. Here, we combined herbarium specimens of Hieracium pilosella L. and Echium vulgare L. with a novel UV-B dataset to examine differences in leaf hair traits between the plants' native and alien ranges. We analysed scans of 336 herbarium specimens using standardized measurements of leaf area, hair density (both species) and hair length (H. pilosella only). While accounting for other bioclimatic variables (i.e. temperature, precipitation) and effects of herbivory, we examined whether UV-B exposure explains the variability and geographical distribution of these traits in the native (Northern Hemisphere) vs. the alien (Southern Hemisphere) range. UV-B explained the largest proportion of the variability and geographical distribution of hair length in H. pilosella (relative influence 67.1%), and hair density in E. vulgare (66.2%). Corresponding with higher UV-B, foliar hairs were 25% longer for H. pilosella and 25% denser for E. vulgare in records from the Southern as compared to those from the Northern Hemisphere. However, focusing on each hemisphere separately or controlling for its effect in a regression analysis, we found no apparent influence of UV-B radiation on hair traits. Thus, our findings did not confirm previous experimental studies which suggested that foliar hairs may respond to higher UV-B intensities, presumably offering protection against detrimental levels of radiation. We cannot rule out UV-B radiation as a possible driver because UV-B radiation was the only considered variable that differed substantially between the hemispheres, while bioclimatic conditions (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and other considered variables (herbivory damage, collection date) were at similar levels. However, given that either non-significant or inconclusive relationships were detected within hemispheres, alternative explanations of the differences in foliar hairs are more likely, including the effects of environment, genotypes or herbivory.

Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2011-07-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoring and control activities to avoid disease vector establishment.

Phylogeography in Response to Reproductive Strategies and Ecogeographic Isolation in Ant Species on Madagascar: Genus Mystrium (Formicidae: Amblyoponinae)

PubMed Central

Graham, Natalie R.; Fisher, Brian L.; Girman, Derek J.

2016-01-01

The bulk of models used to understand the species diversification on Madagascar have been constructed using vertebrate taxa. It is not clear how these models affect less vagile species that may interact at a variety of spatial scales. Several studies on vertebrates have divided Madagascar into east-west bioclimatic regions, suggesting there is a fundamental division between eastern wet-adapted and western dry-adapted taxa. An alternative model of ecogeographic constraints shows a north-south division. We test whether the diversification in a small arthropod with variable degrees of dispersal conform to either model of ecogeographic constraints proposed for vertebrate taxa. We employ a molecular taxonomic dataset using ~2 kilobases nuDNA (Wg, LW Rh, Abd-A, 28s) and 790 basepairs mtDNA (CO1), along with geographic and habitat data, to examine the diversification patterns of the ant genus Mystrium Roger, 1862, (Subfamily Amblyoponinae) from Madagascar. The nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies were both congruent with morphospecies as indicated in a recent revision of the genus. Species of Mystrium practice different colony reproductive strategies (winged queens vs non-winged queens). Alternate reproductive strategies led to inequalities in female dispersal ability among species, providing an additional layer for examination of the impacts of vagility on divergence, especially when measured using a maternally inherited locus. Mystrium species distribution patterns support these models of ecogeographic constraints. Reproductive strategy effected how Mystrium mtDNA lineages were associated with large-scale habitat distinctions and various topographical features. Furthermore, in some cases we find microgeographic population structure which appears to have been impacted by localized habitat differences (tsingy limestone formations, littoral forest) on a scale much smaller than that found in vertebrates. The current system offers a finer scale look at species diversification on the island, and helps achieve a more universal understanding of the generation of biodiversity on Madagascar. PMID:26800442

Phylogeography in Response to Reproductive Strategies and Ecogeographic Isolation in Ant Species on Madagascar: Genus Mystrium (Formicidae: Amblyoponinae).

PubMed

Graham, Natalie R; Fisher, Brian L; Girman, Derek J

2016-01-01

The bulk of models used to understand the species diversification on Madagascar have been constructed using vertebrate taxa. It is not clear how these models affect less vagile species that may interact at a variety of spatial scales. Several studies on vertebrates have divided Madagascar into east-west bioclimatic regions, suggesting there is a fundamental division between eastern wet-adapted and western dry-adapted taxa. An alternative model of ecogeographic constraints shows a north-south division. We test whether the diversification in a small arthropod with variable degrees of dispersal conform to either model of ecogeographic constraints proposed for vertebrate taxa. We employ a molecular taxonomic dataset using ~2 kilobases nuDNA (Wg, LW Rh, Abd-A, 28s) and 790 basepairs mtDNA (CO1), along with geographic and habitat data, to examine the diversification patterns of the ant genus Mystrium Roger, 1862, (Subfamily Amblyoponinae) from Madagascar. The nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies were both congruent with morphospecies as indicated in a recent revision of the genus. Species of Mystrium practice different colony reproductive strategies (winged queens vs non-winged queens). Alternate reproductive strategies led to inequalities in female dispersal ability among species, providing an additional layer for examination of the impacts of vagility on divergence, especially when measured using a maternally inherited locus. Mystrium species distribution patterns support these models of ecogeographic constraints. Reproductive strategy effected how Mystrium mtDNA lineages were associated with large-scale habitat distinctions and various topographical features. Furthermore, in some cases we find microgeographic population structure which appears to have been impacted by localized habitat differences (tsingy limestone formations, littoral forest) on a scale much smaller than that found in vertebrates. The current system offers a finer scale look at species diversification on the island, and helps achieve a more universal understanding of the generation of biodiversity on Madagascar.

Predicting the distribution pattern of small carnivores in response to environmental factors in the Western Ghats.

PubMed

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Qureshi, Qamar; Sankar, Kalyanasundaram

2013-01-01

Due to their secretive habits, predicting the pattern of spatial distribution of small carnivores has been typically challenging, yet for conservation management it is essential to understand the association between this group of animals and environmental factors. We applied maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to build distribution models and identify environmental predictors including bioclimatic variables, forest and land cover type, topography, vegetation index and anthropogenic variables for six small carnivore species in Mudumalai Tiger Reserve. Species occurrence records were collated from camera-traps and vehicle transects during the years 2010 and 2011. We used the average training gain from forty model runs for each species to select the best set of predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic plot (ROC) ranged from 0.81 to 0.93 for the training data and 0.72 to 0.87 for the test data. In habitat models for F. chaus, P. hermaphroditus, and H. smithii "distance to village" and precipitation of the warmest quarter emerged as some of the most important variables. "Distance to village" and aspect were important for V. indica while "distance to village" and precipitation of the coldest quarter were significant for H. vitticollis. "Distance to village", precipitation of the warmest quarter and land cover were influential variables in the distribution of H. edwardsii. The map of predicted probabilities of occurrence showed potentially suitable habitats accounting for 46 km(2) of the reserve for F. chaus, 62 km(2) for V. indica, 30 km(2) for P. hermaphroditus, 63 km(2) for H. vitticollis, 45 km(2) for H. smithii and 28 km(2) for H. edwardsii. Habitat heterogeneity driven by the east-west climatic gradient was correlated with the spatial distribution of small carnivores. This study exemplifies the usefulness of modeling small carnivore distribution to prioritize and direct conservation planning for habitat specialists in southern India.

Predicting the Distribution Pattern of Small Carnivores in Response to Environmental Factors in the Western Ghats

PubMed Central

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Qureshi, Qamar; Sankar, Kalyanasundaram

2013-01-01

Due to their secretive habits, predicting the pattern of spatial distribution of small carnivores has been typically challenging, yet for conservation management it is essential to understand the association between this group of animals and environmental factors. We applied maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to build distribution models and identify environmental predictors including bioclimatic variables, forest and land cover type, topography, vegetation index and anthropogenic variables for six small carnivore species in Mudumalai Tiger Reserve. Species occurrence records were collated from camera-traps and vehicle transects during the years 2010 and 2011. We used the average training gain from forty model runs for each species to select the best set of predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic plot (ROC) ranged from 0.81 to 0.93 for the training data and 0.72 to 0.87 for the test data. In habitat models for F. chaus, P. hermaphroditus, and H. smithii “distance to village” and precipitation of the warmest quarter emerged as some of the most important variables. “Distance to village” and aspect were important for V. indica while “distance to village” and precipitation of the coldest quarter were significant for H. vitticollis. “Distance to village”, precipitation of the warmest quarter and land cover were influential variables in the distribution of H. edwardsii. The map of predicted probabilities of occurrence showed potentially suitable habitats accounting for 46 km2 of the reserve for F. chaus, 62 km2 for V. indica, 30 km2 for P. hermaphroditus, 63 km2 for H. vitticollis, 45 km2 for H. smithii and 28 km2 for H. edwardsii. Habitat heterogeneity driven by the east-west climatic gradient was correlated with the spatial distribution of small carnivores. This study exemplifies the usefulness of modeling small carnivore distribution to prioritize and direct conservation planning for habitat specialists in southern India. PMID:24244470

Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyssanbayeva, Aiman S.; Cherednichenko, Alexandr V.; Cherednichenko, Vladimir S.; Abayev, Nurlan N.; Madibekov, Azamat S.

2018-03-01

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.

Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change.

PubMed

Nyssanbayeva, Aiman S; Cherednichenko, Alexandr V; Cherednichenko, Vladimir S; Abayev, Nurlan N; Madibekov, Azamat S

2018-03-05

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.

Modelling tree dynamics to assess the implementation of EU policies related to afforestation in SW Spain rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herguido, Estela; Pulido, Manuel; Francisco Lavado Contador, Joaquín; Schnabel, Susanne

2017-04-01

In Iberian dehesas and montados, the lack of tree recruitment compromises its long-term sustainability. However, in marginal areas of dehesas shrub encroachment facilitates tree recruitment while altering the distinctive physiognomic and cultural characteristics of the system. These are ongoing processes that should be considered when designing afforestation measures and policies. Based on spatial variables, we modeled the proneness of a piece of land to undergo tree recruitment and the results were related with the afforestation measures carried out under the UE First Afforestation Agricultural Land Program between 1992 and 2008. We analyzed the temporal tree population dynamics in 800 randomly selected plots of 100 m radius (2,510 ha in total) in dehesas and treeless pasturelands of Extremadura (hereafter rangelands). Tree changes were revealed by comparing aerial images taken in 1956 with orthophotographs and infrared ones from 2012. Spatial models that predict the areas prone either to lack tree recruitment or with recruitment were developed and based on three data mining algorithms: MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), Random Forest (RF) and Stochastic Gradient Boosting (Tree-Net, TN). Recruited-tree locations (1) vs. locations of places with no recruitment (0) (randomly selected from the study areas) were used as the binary dependent variable. A 5% of the data were used as test data set. As candidate explanatory variables we used 51 different topographic, climatic, bioclimatic, land cover-related and edaphic ones. The statistical models developed were extrapolated to the spatial context of the afforested areas in the region and also to the whole Extremenian rangelands, and the percentage of area modelled as prone to tree recruitment was calculated for each case. A total of 46,674.63 ha were afforested with holm oak (Quercus ilex) or cork oak (Quercus suber) in the studied rangelands under the UE First Afforestation Agricultural Land Program. In the sampled plots, 16,747 trees were detected as recruited, while 47,058 and 12,803 were present in both dates and lost during the studied period, respectively. Based on the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), all the data mining models considered showed a high fitness (MARS AUC= 0.86; TN AUC= 0.92; RF AUC= 0.95) and low misclassification rates. Correctly predicted test samples for absence and presence of tree recruitment accounted respectively to 78.3% and 76.8% when using MARS, 90.8% and 90.8% using TN and 88.9% and 89.1% using RF. The spatial patterns of the different models were similar. However, attending only the percentage of area prone to tree recruitment, outstanding differences were observed among models considering the total surface of rangelands (36.03% in MARS, 22.88% in TN and 6.72 % in RF). Despite these differences, when comparing the results with those of the afforested surfaces (31.73% in MARS, 20.70% in TN and 5.63 % in RF) the three algorithms pointed to similar conclusions, i.e. the afforestations performed in rangelands of Extremadura under UE First Afforestation Agricultural Land Program, barely discriminate between areas with or without natural regeneration. In conclusion, data mining technics are suitable to develop high-performance spatial models of vegetation dynamics. These models could be useful for policy and decision makers aimed at assessing the implementation of afforestation measures and the selection of more adequate locations.

The relative contribution of climatic, edaphic, and biotic drivers to risk of tree mortality from drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

March, R. G.; Moore, G. W.; Edgar, C. B.; Lawing, A. M.; Washington-Allen, R. A.

2015-12-01

In recorded history, the 2011 Texas Drought was comparable in severity only to a drought that occurred 300 years ago. By mid-September, 88% of the state experienced 'exceptional' conditions, with the rest experiencing 'extreme' or 'severe' drought. By recent estimates, the 2011 Texas Drought killed 6.2% of all the state's trees, at a rate nearly 9 times greater than average. The vast spatial scale and relatively uniform intensity of this drought has provided an opportunity to examine the comparative interactions among forest types, terrain, and edaphic factors across major climate gradients which in 2011 were subjected to extreme drought conditions that ultimately caused massive tree mortality. We used maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) to rank environmental landscape factors with the potential to drive drought-related tree mortality and test the assumption that the relative importance of these factors are scale-dependent. Occurrence data of dead trees were collected during the summer of 2012 from 599 field plots distributed across Texas with 30% used for model evaluation. Bioclimatic variables, ecoregions, soils characteristics, and topographic variables were modeled with drought-killed tree occurrence. Their relative contribution to the model was seen as their relative importance in driving mortality. To test determinants at a more local scale, we examined Landsat 7 scenes in East and West Texas with moderate-resolution data for the same variables above with the exception of climate. All models were significantly better than random in binomial tests of omission and receiver operating characteristic analyses. The modeled spatial distribution of probability of occurrence showed high probability of mortality in the east-central oak woodlands and the mixed pine-hardwood forest region in northeast Texas. Both regional and local models were dominated by biotic factors (ecoregion and forest type, respectively). Forest density and precipitation of driest month also contributed highly to the regional model. The local models gave more importance to available water storage at root zone and hillshade. Understanding how environmental factors drive drought-related mortality can help predict vulnerable landscapes and aid in preparing for future drought events.

Influences of diurnal bright or dim light exposure on urine volume in humans.

PubMed

Hyun, Ki-Ja; Nishimura, Shinya; Tokura, Hiromi

2006-03-01

We investigated with eight healthy females if 8 hr diurnal (0700 to 1500 h) bright rather than dim light (5,000 vs. 80 lx) influenced urine volume. Environmental illuminance was made identical at all other times besides 07:00 to 15:00 h. The participants spent time at strictly regulated schedules in a bioclimatic chamber (26 degrees C, relative humidity 60%) for 57 h. Blood was drawn (2 ml) just before lunch in order to calculate Creatinine clearance (Ccr). Urine volume was significantly higher during wakefulness and the 8-h sleep period with bright rather than dim light. Ccr was significantly higher after bright light. The results were discussed in terms of suppression of the sympathetic nerve system under the influence of diurnal bright light exposure. We also discussed these in terms of physiological polymorphisms.

A methodology for the evaluation of the human-bioclimatic performance of open spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalampopoulos, Ioannis; Tsiros, Ioannis; Chronopoulou-Sereli, Aik.; Matzarakis, Andreas

2017-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a simple methodology to improve the evaluation of the human-biometeorological benefits of open spaces. It is based on two groups of new indices using as basis the well-known PET index. This simple methodology along with the accompanying indices allows a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the climatic behavior of the selected sites. The proposed methodology was applied in a human-biometeorology research in the city of Athens, Greece. The results of this study are in line with the results of other related studies indicating the considerable influence of the sky view factor (SVF), the existence of the vegetation and the building material on human-biometeorological conditions. The proposed methodology may provide new insights in the decision-making process related to urban open spaces' best configuration.

GOES-derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torregrosa, Alicia; Cindy Combs,; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) changes the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystems. Easy-to-use FLCC data are needed to quantify the impacts of FLC on ecosystem dynamics during hot, dry Mediterranean climate summers. FLCC indices were generated from 26,000 hourly night and day FLCC maps derived from Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite (GOES) data for June, July, August, and September, 1999- 2009 for coastal California, latitude 34.50°N, south of Monterey Bay, to latitude 41.95°N, north of Crescent City. Monthly FLCC average hours per day (h/d) range from < 2 to 18. Average FLCC over the ocean increases from north (9 h/d) to south (14 h/d) whereas FLCC over land is reversed. Over land, FLCC is highest where land juts into the prevailing NW winds and is lowest in the lee of major capes. FLCC advects furthest inland through low-lying NW ocean-facing valleys. At night hours of FLCC is higher more frequently on land than over the ocean. Interannual FLCC coefficient of variation shows long term geographic stability strongly associated with landform position. Contours delineating homogeneous zones of FLCC, derived from average decadal h/d FLCC, provide data to refine the commonly used term ‘fog belt.’ FLCC indices are available for download from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Climate Commons website. FLCC indices can be used to improve analyses of biogeographic and bioclimatic species distribution models, meteorological mechanisms driving FLCC patterns, ecohydrological investigations of evapotranspiration, solar energy feasibility studies, agricultural irrigation demand and viticultural ripening models.

Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering: A Framework for Integrating Disparate Data to Understand Network Representativeness and Scaling Up Sparse Ecosystem Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.; Maddalena, D. M.; Langford, Z.; Hargrove, W. W.

2014-12-01

Disparate in situ and remote sensing time series data are being collected to understand the structure and function of ecosystems and how they may be affected by climate change. However, resource and logistical constraints limit the frequency and extent of observations, particularly in the harsh environments of the arctic and the tropics, necessitating the development of a systematic sampling strategy to maximize coverage and objectively represent variability at desired scales. These regions host large areas of potentially vulnerable ecosystems that are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), motivating two new field campaigns, called Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) for the Arctic and Tropics, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC) provides a quantitative methodology for stratifying sampling domains, informing site selection, and determining the representativeness of measurement sites and networks. We applied MSTC to down-scaled general circulation model results and data for the State of Alaska at a 4 km2 resolution to define maps of ecoregions for the present (2000-2009) and future (2090-2099), showing how combinations of 37 bioclimatic characteristics are distributed and how they may shift in the future. Optimal representative sampling locations were identified on present and future ecoregion maps, and representativeness maps for candidate sampling locations were produced. We also applied MSTC to remotely sensed LiDAR measurements and multi-spectral imagery from the WorldView-2 satellite at a resolution of about 5 m2 within the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) in Alaska. At this resolution, polygonal ground features—such as centers, edges, rims, and troughs—can be distinguished. Using these remote sensing data, we up-scaled vegetation distribution data collected on these polygonal ground features to a large area of the BEO to provide distributions of plant functional types that can be used to parameterize ESMs. In addition, we applied MSTC to 4 km2 global bioclimate data to define global ecoregions and understand the representativeness of CTFS-ForestGEO, Fluxnet, and RAINFOR sampling networks. These maps identify tropical forests underrepresented in existing observations of individual and combined networks.

A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers.

PubMed

Varela, Sara; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Terribile, Levi Carina

2015-01-01

Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12-BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14 and BIO15 from ENMs because those variables show a high level of discrepancy between GCMs. Thus, by excluding them, we decrease the level of uncertainty of our predictions. All the climatic layers produced for this paper are freely available in http://ecoclimate.org/.

A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Terribile, Levi Carina

2015-01-01

Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12- BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14 and BIO15 from ENMs because those variables show a high level of discrepancy between GCMs. Thus, by excluding them, we decrease the level of uncertainty of our predictions. All the climatic layers produced for this paper are freely available in http://ecoclimate.org/. PMID:26068930

Elevational Gradients in Fish Diversity in the Himalaya: Water Discharge Is the Key Driver of Distribution Patterns

PubMed Central

Bhatt, Jay P.; Manish, Kumar; Pandit, Maharaj K.

2012-01-01

Background Studying diversity and distribution patterns of species along elevational gradients and understanding drivers behind these patterns is central to macroecology and conservation biology. A number of studies on biogeographic gradients are available for terrestrial ecosystems, but freshwater ecosystems remain largely neglected. In particular, we know very little about the species richness gradients and their drivers in the Himalaya, a global biodiversity hotspot. Methodology/Principal Findings We collated taxonomic and distribution data of fish species from 16 freshwater Himalayan rivers and carried out empirical studies on environmental drivers and fish diversity and distribution in the Teesta river (Eastern Himalaya). We examined patterns of fish species richness along the Himalayan elevational gradients (50–3800 m) and sought to understand the drivers behind the emerging patterns. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized additive models (GAM) to examine the richness patterns; GLM was used to investigate relationship between fish species richness and various environmental variables. Regression modelling involved stepwise procedures, including elimination of collinear variables, best model selection, based on the least Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and the highest percentage of deviance explained (D2). This maiden study on the Himalayan fishes revealed that total and non-endemic fish species richness monotonously decrease with increasing elevation, while endemics peaked around mid elevations (700–1500 m). The best explanatory model (synthetic model) indicated that water discharge is the best predictor of fish species richness patterns in the Himalayan rivers. Conclusions/Significance This study, carried out along one of the longest bioclimatic elevation gradients of the world, lends support to Rapoport’s elevational rule as opposed to mid domain effect hypothesis. We propose a species-discharge model and contradict species-area model in predicting fish species richness. We suggest that drivers of richness gradients in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are likely to be different. These studies are crucial in context of the impacts of unprecedented on-going river regulation on fish diversity and distribution in the Himalaya. PMID:23029444

Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Ciais, Philippe; Babst, Flurin; Guo, Weichao; Zhang, Cicheng; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Pavelka, Marian; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Yongmei; Wang, Pei; Shi, Chunming; Ma, Yujun

2018-01-01

In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in-situ tree-ring records, eddy-covariance CO 2 and water flux measurements, and meta-analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep-rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco-hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of altitude on seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi flies (Diptera: Tephritidae).

PubMed

Kovanci, O B; Kovanci, B

2006-08-01

The effect of altitudinal variation on the seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi (Linnaeus) flies was evaluated along an altitudinal gradient from 150 to 1170 m in Mount Uludag, northwestern Turkey. The predicted dates of fly emergence, flight duration and dates of 5%, 50% and 95% cumulative fly catches at various altitudes were estimated from a degree-day model. Degree-day predictions were compared with those obtained from observations made with yellow sticky traps. The observed and predicted dates of appearance of adults were delayed by 1.4 and 2.0 days for every 100 m increase in altitude, respectively. The delay in phenology events was less at high altitudes than postulated by Hopkins' bioclimatic law, whether observed or predicted. The average absolute difference in predicted and observed dates of cumulative percentage catch of adults was 4.9 and 3.0 days in 1997 and 1998, respectively, but these differences were not significant. Prolonged flight activity was predicted and observed at higher altitudes, but the flight period lasted significantly longer than predicted. The observed flight period varied from 29 to 43 days in 1997 and from 36 to 52 days in 1998 between the lowest and highest altitude on the transect. Altitudinal variation between geographically close locations should be taken into account to properly time monitoring activities and hence to manage R. cerasi populations more effectively.

Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

2016-09-01

Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

2013-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate. PMID:23893550

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

2013-12-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

PubMed

Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

2016-09-01

Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas. PMID:21539736

Fate of leaf-litter N in forest and grassland along a pedo-climatic gradient in south-western Siberia: an in situ 15N-labelling experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brédoire, Félix; Zeller, Bernd; Nikitich, Polina; Barsukov, Pavel A.; Rusalimova, Olga; Bakker, Mark R.; Legout, Arnaud; Bashuk, Alexander; Kayler, Zachary E.; Derrien, Delphine

2017-04-01

The suitability of Siberia for agriculture is expected to increase in the next decades due to strong and rapid climatic changes, but little is known on the environmental drivers of soil fertility there, especially nitrogen (N). Plant-available N is mainly derived from litter decomposition. South-western (SW) Siberia is located on the transition between several bioclimatic zones that are predicted to shift and extend along with climate change (steppe, forest-steppe, sub-taiga). The soils of this region are formed on a common loess deposit but they are submitted to different climatic conditions and vegetation cover. In the south of the region, typically in steppe/forest-steppe, soil freezes over winter because of a relatively shallow snow-pack, and water shortages are frequent in summer. In the north, typically in sub-taiga, the soil is barely frozen in winter due to a thick snow-pack and sufficient soil moisture in summer. In this study, we characterized the dynamics of leaf litter decomposition and the transfer of N from leaf litter to the soil and back to plants. Four sites were chosen along a climate gradient (temperature, precipitation and snow depth). At each site, we applied 15N-labelled leaf litter on the soil surface in experimental plots in an aspen (Populus tremula L.) forest and in a grassland. Twice a year during three years, we tracked the 15N derived from the decomposing labelled-litter in the organic layers, in the first 15 cm of the soil, and in above-ground vegetation. Soil temperature and moisture were monitored at a daily timestep over three years and soil water budgets were simulated (BILJOU model, Granier et al. 1999). We observed contrasting patterns in the fate of litter-derived 15N between bioclimatic zones. Over three years, along with faster decay rates, the release of leaf litter-N was faster in sub-taiga than in forest-steppe. As such, higher quantities of 15N were transferred into the soil in sub-taiga. The transfer was also deeper there, which might be related to a more intense drainage because of higher snow levels, as inferred from soil water budget modelling. Interestingly, this higher drainage seems to induce only a small loss of N from the system. Such retention could result from soil physico-chemical properties (higher fine silt and oxides contents) enhancing soil organic matter stabilization, and/or by the immobilization of N in microbial metabolites. We observed differing N dynamics between forest and grassland that can be related to the different chemical composition of initial litter (tree leaves vs. grasses) and plant-soil interactions. In general, N was retained in the first centimeters of the mineral soil in grassland while the transfer was deeper in the forest soils. As fine root exploration is denser in grassland topsoil than in forest topsoil, we infer that an efficient uptake of N by grasses in the first soil layers limits N migration down the profile. It is also possible that grasses are active earlier in the season than trees and understorey species, i.e. at snow-melt when drainage is the most intense.

Climate of Hungary in the twentieth century according to Feddema

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ács, Ferenc; Breuer, Hajnalka; Skarbit, Nóra

2015-01-01

Feddema's (Physical Geography 26:442-466, 2005) bioclimatic classification scheme is applied to Hungary for the twentieth century using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data series. The method is tested in two modes. In the first, its original form is used which is suitable for global scale analysis. In the second, the criteria used in the method are slightly modified for mesoscale classification purposes. In both versions, potential evapotranspiration (PET) is calculated using McKenney and Rosenberg's (Meteorol 64:81-110, 1993) formula. We showed that McKenney and Rosenberg's formula could be applied to Hungary. According to Feddema's global scale application, local climates of the three main geographical regions, the Great Hungarian Plain, the North Hungarian Mountains, and Transdanubia, can be distinguished. However, the spatial distribution pattern within the regions is poorly reproduced, if at all. According to Feddema's mesoscale application, a picture of climatic subregions could be observed.

Genome-environment associations in sorghum landraces predict adaptive traits

PubMed Central

Lasky, Jesse R.; Upadhyaya, Hari D.; Ramu, Punna; Deshpande, Santosh; Hash, C. Tom; Bonnette, Jason; Juenger, Thomas E.; Hyma, Katie; Acharya, Charlotte; Mitchell, Sharon E.; Buckler, Edward S.; Brenton, Zachary; Kresovich, Stephen; Morris, Geoffrey P.

2015-01-01

Improving environmental adaptation in crops is essential for food security under global change, but phenotyping adaptive traits remains a major bottleneck. If associations between single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) alleles and environment of origin in crop landraces reflect adaptation, then these could be used to predict phenotypic variation for adaptive traits. We tested this proposition in the global food crop Sorghum bicolor, characterizing 1943 georeferenced landraces at 404,627 SNPs and quantifying allelic associations with bioclimatic and soil gradients. Environment explained a substantial portion of SNP variation, independent of geographical distance, and genic SNPs were enriched for environmental associations. Further, environment-associated SNPs predicted genotype-by-environment interactions under experimental drought stress and aluminum toxicity. Our results suggest that genomic signatures of environmental adaptation may be useful for crop improvement, enhancing germplasm identification and marker-assisted selection. Together, genome-environment associations and phenotypic analyses may reveal the basis of environmental adaptation. PMID:26601206

[Hemoparasites in wild birds in Madagascar].

PubMed

Raharimanga, V; Soula, F; Raherilalao, M J; Goodman, S M; Sadonès, H; Tall, A; Randrianarivelojosia, M; Raharimalala, L; Duchemin, J B; Ariey, F; Robert, V

2002-01-01

This study aims to evaluate the prevalence and density of haemoparasites in native Malagasy birds. Among the 387 birds, belonging to 43 species sampled at six localities in different bio-climatic zones of the island, 139 (35.9%) showed at least 1 hemoparasite with, by order of frequency, Plasmodium and/or Haemoproteus (19.9%), microfilariae (13.7% of 387 birds), Leucocytozoon (11.1%) and Trypanosoma (1.0%). An analysis to further elucidate these observations took into account the interaction of different environmental variables (altitude, season, site of collection) or aspects of the birds (age, weight, sex). There is evidence that some parasites preferentially infect some bird species or families. The largest male birds harboured the highest prevalences and densities of haemoparasite, regardless of species. These findings extend knowledge of bird/blood parasite relationships of Malagasy birds and provide interesting insights, especially concerning the pathogenicity of this type of parasitism and the parasite transmission by insect vectors.

Variation in nutritional quality and chemical composition of fresh strawberry fruit: combined effect of cultivar and storage.

PubMed

Dragišić Maksimović, Jelena; Poledica, Milena; Mutavdžić, Dragosav; Mojović, Miloš; Radivojević, Dragan; Milivojević, Jasminka

2015-03-01

Bioclimatic air ionisation system (BI) works by neutralising air pollutants and microorganisms by means of oxidation with "activated oxygen". We investigated the effects of storage on changes in weight loss, chemical and sensory fruit properties in eight cultivars of strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa Duch.). All cultivars were evaluated for their standard parameters of quality (soluble solids content, total acidity, vitamin C content, total antioxidant activity - TAC, total phenolic and anthocyanins content) at different store conditions: fresh fruits-control, cold stored (at 4 °C) fruits without controlled atmospheres and cold stored (at 4 °C) fruits in BI. The present study outlines that anthocyanins of the strawberries stored in BI were subjected to significant degradation. These strawberries have prolonged shelf-life accompanied by weight loss reduction, TAC increment, and sensory properties improvement in tested cultivars, retaining other nutritional fruit qualities.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2016-01-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr−1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr−1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

Viticultural zoning of Graciosa island of the Azores archipelago - Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga, João; Reis, Francisco; Felipe, João; Azevedo, Eduardo; Pinheiro, Jorge

2016-04-01

The management and sustainability of the traditional vineyards of the Azores settled on lava field terrains is strongly affected by practical limitations of mechanization and high demand on man labor imposed by the typical micro parcel structure of the vineyards. In a recent macrozoning approach study Madruga et al (2015) showed that besides the traditional vineyards there are significant areas in some of the Azores islands whose soils, climate and physiographic characteristics indicate a potential for the development of new vineyard areas offering conditions for better management and sustainability. The objective of this study was to conduct a detailed viticultural zoning at the level of the small mapscale (smaller than 1:25,000), for the island of Graciosa where, besides the traditional lava field terroir, there are also some localized experiences of grapevine production over normal soils, offering thus some comparative information on this type of production conditions. The zoning approach for the present study was based in a geographic information system (GIS) analysis incorporating factors related to climate and topography which was then combined with the soil mapping units fulfilling the suitable criteria concerning the soil properties taken as the most relevant for viticulture, being the result a map of homogeneous environmental units. The climatic zoning examined the direct quantitative variables (precipitation, temperature, evaporation) in relation to climate index, bioclimatic and viticultural specific values. Topography (elevation, slope, aspect, orientation) was analyzed based on the tridimensional models of the islands in GIS to include the best slopes for the mechanization of the vineyard cultural operations (0-15%). Soils were analyzed based on data and soil map units as defined in the soil surveys of the Azores archipelago. The soil properties taken for the analysis and definition of the potential vineyard areas were drainage, water holding capacity, depth to bed-rock and pH.

Analysis of causal factors of fire regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, I.; Lehsten, V.; Balzter, H.

2009-04-01

Wildfires are a wide spread global phenomenon. Their activity peaks in the tropical savannas, especially in the African continent, where fires are a key component of ecosystem dynamics. Fires affect the ecological balance between trees and grasses in savannas with concomitant effects on biodiversity, soil fertility and biogeochemical cycles. Large amounts of trace greenhouse gases and aerosols from wildfires are emitted each year in Africa, but the underlying dynamics of such wildfires and what drives them remain poorly understood. In general terms, the magnitude and the inter-annual variability of fire activity depend on fire frequency and its spatial distribution, also referred to as fire regimes. These are, in turn, determined by the environmental conditions at the time of burning, ignition sources, fuel type, fuel availability, and its moisture content. This study analysed the driving factors of fire regimes at continental level for a period of 5 years (2002-2007). We considered the following variables: climate (rainfall, temperature, humidity), population density, land cover and the burned areas derived from the MODIS MCD45A1 product at 500m resolution. GIS and multi-variate regression techniques were used to analyse the data. Understanding fire driving factors is fundamentally important for developing process-based simulation models of fire occurrence under future climate and environmental change scenarios. This is particularly relevant if we consider that the IPCC 4th Assessment report indicates that a change in the rainfall patterns has been observed in the last 40 years over most of Africa with a decrease of precipitation around 20-40% in West Africa and more intense and widespread droughts in Southern Africa. The simultaneous increase of temperatures can potentially lead to higher fire occurrence and modify the current fire regimes. This work contributes to climate change research with new insights and understanding about how fires are controlled by bioclimatic and demographic factors in African ecosystems.

Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried

2016-06-01

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-03-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relic components within the soil cover of Mexico: regional variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solleiro Rebolledo, Elizabeth; Sedov, Sergey

2015-04-01

The case of paleosols persisting on the land surface (non-buried paleosols or relict soils) besides paleoecological interest has specific implications for studies of soil geography, ecology and management. In fact these soil bodies form part of the modern soil mantle and provide ecological services for the current (agro)ecosystems but are neither formed nor re-produced by these ecosystems, conforming locally extinct soils (although similar profiles can develop at present under other bioclimatic conditions). In consequence, they are a heritage of past climatic and biotic conditions now extinct, thus presenting a non-restorable component of the present landscape. Mexico has so abundant and diverse paleosols, both surface and buried, that really could be considered to be a "paleopedological paradise". Two groups of factors promote generation of this abundance: Major part of territory of Mexico is occupied by mountainous landscapes with high intensity of tectonic, volcanic and geomorphic processes. These processes create a complex mosaic of geological materials and landforms of different age (like alluvial and lake terraces, eroded slopes, and volcanic deposits of various eruptions). Meanwhile younger landsurfaces are occupied by the recently developed soils, the older ones could bear the relict soil bodies. The same processes produce sedimentary strata (alluvial, colluvial, pyroclastic, etc.) which frequently cover the pre-existing landsurfaces and soils, producing series of buried paleosols. In this work we present three study cases of relict paleosols that are integrated to the modern soil cover of Mexico: the case of reddish-brown soils in the arid landscapes of Sonora (in the north); the pedosediments (tepetates) in central Mexico; and the red soils developed under humid conditions in Yucatan (in the south).

Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

PubMed

Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario Boreal Shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics will be necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.

PubMed

Aryal, Achyut; Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Ji, Weihong; Ale, Som B; Shrestha, Sujata; Ingty, Tenzing; Maraseni, Tek; Cockfield, Geoff; Raubenheimer, David

2016-06-01

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

Vegetation, plant biomass, and net primary productivity patterns in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, W. A.; Raynolds, M.; Walker, D. A.

2003-01-01

We have developed maps of dominant vegetation types, plant functional types, percent vegetation cover, aboveground plant biomass, and above and belowground annual net primary productivity for Canada north of the northern limit of trees. The area mapped covers 2.5 million km2 including glaciers. Ice-free land covers 2.3 million km2 and represents 42% of all ice-free land in the Circumpolar Arctic. The maps combine information on climate, soils, geology, hydrology, remotely sensed vegetation classifications, previous vegetation studies, and regional expertise to define polygons drawn using photo-interpretation of a 1:4,000,000 scale advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) color infrared image basemap. Polygons are linked to vegetation description, associated properties, and descriptive literature through a series of lookup tables in a graphic information systems (GIS) database developed as a component of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM) project. Polygons are classified into 20 landcover types including 17 vegetation types. Half of the region is sparsely vegetated (<50% vegetation cover), primarily in the High Arctic (bioclimatic subzones A-C). Whereas most (86%) of the estimated aboveground plant biomass (1.5 × 1015 g) and 87% of the estimated above and belowground annual net primary productivity (2.28 × 1014 g yr-1) are concentrated in the Low Arctic (subzones D and E). The maps present more explicit spatial patterns of vegetation and ecosystem attributes than have been previously available, the GIS database is useful in summarizing ecosystem properties and can be easily updated and integrated into circumpolar mapping efforts, and the derived estimates fall within the range of current published estimates.

A web-based spatial decision supporting system (S-DSS) for grapevine quality: the viticultural tool of the SOILCONS-WEB Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manna, Piero; Bonfante, Antonello; Basile, Angelo; Langella, Giuliano; Agrillo, Antonietta; De Mascellis, Roberto; Florindo Mileti, Antonio; Minieri, Luciana; Orefice, Nadia; Terribile, Fabio

2014-05-01

The SOILCONSWEB Project aims to create a decision support system operating at the landscape scale (Spatial-DSS) for the protection and the management of soils in both agricultural and environmental issues; it is a cyber-infrastructure built on remote servers operating through the web at www.landconsultingweb.eu. It includes - among others - a series of tools specifically designed to a Viticulture aiming at high quality wines production. The system is realized thanks to a collaboration between the University of Naples Federico II, CNR ISAFoM, Ariespace srl and SeSIRCA-Campania Region within a 5-years LIFE+ project funded by European Community. The system includes tools based on modelling procedures at different level of complexity some of which specifically designed for viticulture issues. One of the implemented models arise from the original desktop based SWAP model (Kroes et al, 2008). It can be run "on the fly" through a very user friendly web-interface. The specific tool, thanks to the model based on the Richard's equation can produce data on vineyard water stress, simulating the soil water balances of the different soil types within an area of interest. Thanks to a specific program developed within the project activities, the Spatial-DSS every day acquires punctual weather data and automatically spatialize them with geostatistical approaches in order to use the data as input for the SPA (Soil Plant Atmosphere ) model running. In particular for defining the upper boundary condition (rainfall and temperatures to estimate ET0 by the Hargraves model). Soil hydraulic properties (47 soil profiles within the study area), also essential for modelling simulation, were measured in laboratory using the Wind's approach or estimated through HYPRES PTF. Water retention and hydraulic conductivity relationships were parameterized according to the van Genuchten-Mualem model; Decision makers (individuals, groups of interests and public bodies) through the DSS can have real-time (or near real-time) access to critical, accurate, complete and up-to-date spatial data/output models held/processed in multiple data stores. The system allows the users interested in viticulture to have free, easy and immediate access to a number of environmental data and information very useful for quality wines production and especially for viticulture planning and management in a context of environmental sustainability. It produces detailed spatial documents, report and maps on a series of questions including the identification and description of terroir characteristics. The user once connected to the S-DSS can select an area of interest (i.e. farm, municipality, district) or draw it and obtain in real time a series of detailed information regarding that specific area, including maps and reports of landscape physical factors (i.e. soils, climate, geology, geomorphology, etc.), viticulture suitability, plant disease data and modelling, trends of viticulture years, bioclimatic indexes, etc. The user can also choose between different options such as the time period of the simulation runs or the type of data (maps, report or graphs) to be produced by the system. The S-DSS is being developed, tested and applied in an area of about 20,000 ha in south of Italy (Valle Telesina, in Campania region) mainly vocated to quality wines production (designation of origin DOC and DOCG). Key words: Decision Support System, spatial data, model simulation, soil hydrological properties, cyber infrastructure.

Ecophysiology Tracks Phylogeny and Meets Ecological Models in an Iberian Gecko.

PubMed

Rato, C; Carretero, M A

2015-01-01

Because fitness of ectotherms, including reptiles, is highly dependent on temperature and water availability, the study of ecophysiological traits, such as preferred temperature (T p) and water loss rates (WLRs), may provide mechanistic evidence on the restricting factors to the species ranges. The Moorish gecko, Tarentola mauritanica, is a species complex with a circum-Mediterranean distribution. In the Iberian Peninsula, two sister parapatric forms of the complex, known as the Iberian and the European clades, are found. Ecological models previously performed using presence records and bioclimatic variables suggest niche divergence between both lineages correlated with precipitation rather than with temperature. In this study, we test this correlative hypothesis using ecophysiological evidence. In the laboratory, we analyzed the T p and WLRs for 84 adult males from seven distinct populations ascribed to one of the two lineages present in Iberia. Specifically, we evaluated the existence of trait conservatism versus adaptation among populations, lineages, or both. In addition, we tested for a trade-off between water and thermal traits and assessed whether climate regime of sampling localities had any influence on the ecophysiological patterns found. We found that T p is quite conserved at both the population and lineage levels and independent from body size. In contrast, water loss experiments revealed some variation among populations, but the regression analysis failed to detect correlation between T p and WLR at any level. Overall, the European lineage displayed a trend for higher water loss and was more diverse among populations when compared with the Iberian lineage. The lack of correspondence between ecophysiological traits and local climatic conditions favors phylogenetic signal versus adaptation. This suggests divergent evolutionary responses to the environment, mainly acting on water ecology, in both lineages, which may account for the differences in their range expansion.

Origin of the invasive Arundo donax (Poaceae): a trans-Asian expedition in herbaria.

PubMed

Hardion, Laurent; Verlaque, Régine; Saltonstall, Kristin; Leriche, Agathe; Vila, Bruno

2014-09-01

The hypothesis of an ancient introduction, i.e. archaeophyte origin, is one of the most challenging questions in phylogeography. Arundo donax (Poaceae) is currently considered to be one of the worst invasive species globally, but it has also been widely utilzed by man across Eurasia for millennia. Despite a lack of phylogenetic data, recent literature has often speculated on its introduction to the Mediterranean region. This study tests the hypothesis of its ancient introduction from Asia to the Mediterranean by using plastid DNA sequencing and morphometric analysis on 127 herbarium specimens collected across sub-tropical Eurasia. In addition, a bioclimatic species distribution model calibrated on 1221 Mediterranean localities was used to identify similar ecological niches in Asia. Despite analysis of several plastid DNA hypervariable sites and the identification of 13 haplotypes, A. donax was represented by a single haplotype from the Mediterranean to the Middle East. This haplotype is shared with invasive samples worldwide, and its nearest phylogenetic relatives are located in the Middle East. Morphometric data characterized this invasive clone by a robust morphotype distinguishable from all other Asian samples. The ecological niche modelling designated the southern Caspian Sea, southern Iran and the Indus Valley as the most suitable regions of origin in Asia for the invasive clone of A. donax. Using an integrative approach, an ancient dispersion of this robust, polyploid and non-fruiting clone is hypothesized from the Middle East to the west, leading to its invasion throughout the Mediterranean Basin. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Trends and Bioclimatic Assessment of Extreme Indices: Emerging Insights for Rainfall Derivative Crop Microinsurance in Central-West Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awolala, D. O.

2015-12-01

Scientific predictions have forecasted increasing economic losses by which farming households will be forced to consider new adaptation pathways to close the food gap and be income secure. Pro-poor adaptation planning decisions therefore must rely on location-specific details from systematic assessment of extreme climate indices to provide template for most suitable financial adaptation instruments. This paper examined critical loss point to water stress in maize production and risk-averse behaviour to extreme local climate in Central West Nigeria. Trends of extreme indices and bio-climatic assessment based on RClimDex for numerical weather predictions were carried out using a 3-decade time series daily observational climate data of the sub-humid region. The study reveals that the flowering and seed formation stage was identified as the most critical loss point when seed formation is a function of per unit soil water available for uptake. The sub-humid has a bi-modal rainfall pattern but faces longer dry spell with a fast disappearing mild climate measured by budyko evaporation of 80.1%. Radiation index of dryness of 1.394 confirms the region is rapidly becoming drier at an evaporation rate of 949 mm/year and rainfall deficit of 366 mm/year. Net primary production from rainfall is fast declining by 1634 g(DM)/m2/year. These conditions influenced by monthly rainfall uncertainties are associated with losses of standing crops because farmers are uncertain of rainfall probability distribution especially during most important vegetative stage. In a simulated warmer climate, an absolute dryness of months was observed compared with 4 dry months in a normal climate which explains triggers of food deficits and income losses. Positive coefficients of tropical nights (TR20), warm nights (TN90P) and warm days (TX90P), and the negative coefficient of cold days (TX10P) with time are significant at P<0.05. The increasing gradient of warm spell indicator (WSDI), the decreasing gradients of cold nights (TN10P) and cold days (TX10P) are added evidence of aridity arising from increasing rainfall deficits. This paper recommends that the region needs rainfall-based index microinsurance adaptation financial instruments capable of sharing covariate shocks with farmers within an incentive-based risk sharing framework.

The taxonomic distinctness of macroinvertebrate communities of Atlantic Forest streams cannot be predicted by landscape and climate variables, but traditional biodiversity indices can.

PubMed

Roque, F O; Guimarães, E A; Ribeiro, M C; Escarpinati, S C; Suriano, M T; Siqueira, T

2014-11-01

Predicting how anthropogenic activities may influence the various components of biodiversity is essential for finding ways to reduce diversity loss. This challenge involves: a) understanding how environmental factors influence diversity across different spatial scales, and b) developing ways to measure these relationships in a way that is fast, economical, and easy to communicate. In this study, we investigate whether landscape and bioclimatic variables could explain variation in biodiversity indices in macroinvertebrate communities from 39 Atlantic Forest streams. In addition to traditional diversity measures, i.e., species richness, abundance and Shannon index, we used a taxonomic distinctness index that measures the degree of phylogenetic relationship among taxa. The amount of variation in the diversity measures that was explained by environmental and spatial variables was estimated using variation partitioning based on multiple regression. Our study demonstrates that taxonomic distinctness does not respond in the same way as the traditional used in biodiversity studies. We found no evidence that taxonomic distinctness responds predictably to variation in landscape metrics, indicating the need for the incorporation of predictors at multiple scales in this type of study. The lack of congruence between taxonomic distinctness and other indices and its low predictability may be related to the fact that this measure expresses long-term evolutionary adaptation to ecosystem conditions, while the other traditional biodiversity metrics respond to short-term environmental changes.

A comprehensive and sustainable approach to the design of the retrofitting and enlargement of the National Etruscan museum `Pompeo Aria' in Marzabotto, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mingozzi, Angelo; Bottiglioni, Sergio

2006-12-01

The retrofitting and enlargement of National Etruscan Museum `Pompeo Aria' in Marzabotto, Italy is one of the demonstration projects of `MUSEUMS' EC FPV Project that concerns retrofitting and construction of eight European museums in accordance with sustainability principles.The museum was originally placed inside some buildings unsuitable to host exhibitions. As the wrong indoor microclimate could affect objects and boost their deterioration, it was essential to define suitable conditions under which the pieces should be exhibited, and the structures had to be accordingly upgraded to improve their performances.The project aims to balance active systems with bioclimatic strategies and passive solar techniques in order to assure the best conditions for people's comfort and exhibit preventive conservation together with energy savings. In order to succeed in such an attempt, it is essential to define a methodology that helps in managing the complexity, for instance, this has allowed the cross disciplinary team to focus on common priorities and to talk a universal language.In effect, each retrofitting and extension phase followed a preset design method: starting from the site analysis, general and specific targets have been defined, and they have been continuously verified.Methodologies and technical solutions developed and tested during this experience have a great chance of becoming a knowledge platform and being replicated in future interventions.

Species Distribution 2.0: An Accurate Time- and Cost-Effective Method of Prospection Using Street View Imagery

PubMed Central

Schwoertzig, Eugénie; Millon, Alexandre

2016-01-01

Species occurrence data provide crucial information for biodiversity studies in the current context of global environmental changes. Such studies often rely on a limited number of occurrence data collected in the field and on pseudo-absences arbitrarily chosen within the study area, which reduces the value of these studies. To overcome this issue, we propose an alternative method of prospection using geo-located street view imagery (SVI). Following a standardised protocol of virtual prospection using both vertical (aerial photographs) and horizontal (SVI) perceptions, we have surveyed 1097 randomly selected cells across Spain (0.1x0.1 degree, i.e. 20% of Spain) for the presence of Arundo donax L. (Poaceae). In total we have detected A. donax in 345 cells, thus substantially expanding beyond the now two-centuries-old field-derived record, which described A. donax only 216 cells. Among the field occurrence cells, 81.1% were confirmed by SVI prospection to be consistent with species presence. In addition, we recorded, by SVI prospection, 752 absences, i.e. cells where A. donax was considered absent. We have also compared the outcomes of climatic niche modeling based on SVI data against those based on field data. Using generalized linear models fitted with bioclimatic predictors, we have found SVI data to provide far more compelling results in terms of niche modeling than does field data as classically used in SDM. This original, cost- and time-effective method provides the means to accurately locate highly visible taxa, reinforce absence data, and predict species distribution without long and expensive in situ prospection. At this time, the majority of available SVI data is restricted to human-disturbed environments that have road networks. However, SVI is becoming increasingly available in natural areas, which means the technique has considerable potential to become an important factor in future biodiversity studies. PMID:26751565

Understanding Phlebotomus perniciosus abundance in south-east Spain: assessing the role of environmental and anthropic factors.

PubMed

Risueño, José; Muñoz, Clara; Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro; Goyena, Elena; Gonzálvez, Moisés; Ortuño, María; Bernal, Luis Jesús; Ortiz, Juana; Alten, Bulent; Berriatua, Eduardo

2017-04-19

Leishmaniosis is associated with Phlebotomus sand fly vector density, but our knowledge of the environmental framework that regulates highly overdispersed vector abundance distributions is limited. We used a standardized sampling procedure in the bioclimatically diverse Murcia Region in Spain and multilevel regression models for count data to estimate P. perniciosus abundance in relation to environmental and anthropic factors. Twenty-five dog and sheep premises were sampled for sand flies using adhesive and light-attraction traps, from late May to early October 2015. Temperature, relative humidity and other animal- and premise-related data recorded on site and other environmental data were extracted from digital databases using a geographical information system. The relationship between sand fly abundance and explanatory variables was analysed using binomial regression models. The total number of sand flies captured, mostly with light-attraction traps, was 3,644 specimens, including 80% P. perniciosus, the main L. infantum vector in Spain. Abundance varied between and within zones and was positively associated with increasing altitude from 0 to 900 m above sea level, except from 500 to 700 m where it was low. Populations peaked in July and especially during a 3-day heat wave when relative humidity and wind speed plummeted. Regression models indicated that climate and not land use or soil characteristics have the greatest impact on this species density on a large geographical scale. In contrast, micro-environmental factors such as animal building characteristics and husbandry practices affect sand fly population size on a smaller scale. A standardised sampling procedure and statistical analysis for highly overdispersed distributions allow reliable estimation of P. perniciosus abundance and identification of environmental drivers. While climatic variables have the greatest impact at macro-environmental scale, anthropic factors may be determinant at a micro-geographical scale. These finding may be used to elaborate predictive distribution maps useful for vector and pathogen control programs.

Archaeobotanical evidence for climate as a driver of ecological community change across the anthropocene boundary.

PubMed

Ellis, Christopher J; Yahr, Rebecca; Belinchón, Rocío; Coppins, Brian J

2014-07-01

The biodiversity response to climate change is a major focus in conservation research and policy. Predictive models that are used to project the impact of climate change scenarios - such as bioclimatic envelope models - are widely applied and have come under severe scrutiny. Criticisms of such models have focussed on at least two problems. First, there is an assumption that climate is the primary driver of observed species distributions ('climatic equilibrium'), when other biogeographical controls are often reliably established. Second, a species' sensitivity to macroclimate may become less relevant when impacts are down-scaled to a local level, incorporating a modifying effect of species interactions structuring communities. This article examines the role of different drivers (climate, pollution and landscape habitat structure) in explaining spatial community variation for a widely applied bioindicator group: lichen epiphytes. To provide an analysis free of 'legacy effects' (e.g. formerly higher pollution loads), the study focused on hazel stems as a relatively short-lived and recently colonized substratum. For communities during the present day, climate is shown to interact with stem size/age as the most likely explanation of community composition, thus coupling a macroclimatic and community-scale effect. The position of present-day communities was projected into ordination space for eight sites in England and compared to the position of historical epiphyte communities from the same sites, reconstructed using preserved hazel wattles dating mainly to the 16th Century. This comparison of community structure for the late- to post-Mediaeval period, with the post-Industrial period, demonstrated a consistent shift among independent sites towards warmer and drier conditions, concurrent with the end of the Little Ice Age. Long-term temporal sensitivity of epiphyte communities to climate variation thus complements spatial community patterns. If more widely applied, preserved lichen epiphytes have potential to generate new baseline conditions of environment and biodiversity for preindustrial lowland Europe. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Macroevolutionary diversification with limited niche disparity in a species-rich lineage of cold-climate lizards.

PubMed

Reaney, Ashley M; Saldarriaga-Córdoba, Mónica; Pincheira-Donoso, Daniel

2018-02-06

Life diversifies via adaptive radiation when natural selection drives the evolution of ecologically distinct species mediated by their access to novel niche space, or via non-adaptive radiation when new species diversify while retaining ancestral niches. However, while cases of adaptive radiation are widely documented, examples of non-adaptively radiating lineages remain rarely observed. A prolific cold-climate lizard radiation from South America (Phymaturus), sister to a hyper-diverse adaptive radiation (Liolaemus), has extensively diversified phylogenetically and geographically, but with exceptionally minimal ecological and life-history diversification. This lineage, therefore, may offer unique opportunities to investigate the non-adaptive basis of diversification, and in combination with Liolaemus, to cover the whole spectrum of modes of diversification predicted by theory, from adaptive to non-adaptive. Using phylogenetic macroevolutionary modelling performed on a newly created 58-species molecular tree, we establish the tempo and mode of diversification in the Phymaturus radiation. Lineage accumulation in Phymaturus opposes a density-dependent (or 'niche-filling') process of diversification. Concurrently, we found that body size diversification is better described by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck evolutionary model, suggesting stabilizing selection as the mechanism underlying niche conservatism (i.e., maintaining two fundamental size peaks), and which has predominantly evolved around two major adaptive peaks on a 'Simpsonian' adaptive landscape. Lineage diversification of the Phymaturus genus does not conform to an adaptive radiation, as it is characterised by a constant rate of species accumulation during the clade's history. Their strict habitat requirements (rocky outcrops), predominantly invariant herbivory, and especially the constant viviparous reproduction across species have likely limited their opportunities for adaptive diversifications throughout novel environments. This mode of diversification contrasts dramatically with its sister lineage Liolaemus, which geographically overlaps with Phymaturus, but exploits all possible microhabitats in these and other bioclimatic areas. Our study contributes importantly to consolidate these lizards (liolaemids) as promising model systems to investigate the entire spectrum of modes of species formations, from the adaptive to the non-adaptive extremes of the continuum.

Climatic niche shift predicts thermal trait response in one but not both introductions of the Puerto Rican lizard Anolis cristatellus to Miami, Florida, USA

PubMed Central

Kolbe, Jason J; VanMiddlesworth, Paul S; Losin, Neil; Dappen, Nathan; Losos, Jonathan B

2012-01-01

Global change is predicted to alter environmental conditions for populations in numerous ways; for example, invasive species often experience substantial shifts in climatic conditions during introduction from their native to non-native ranges. Whether these shifts elicit a phenotypic response, and how adaptation and phenotypic plasticity contribute to phenotypic change, are key issues for understanding biological invasions and how populations may respond to local climate change. We combined modeling, field data, and a laboratory experiment to test for changing thermal tolerances during the introduction of the tropical lizard Anolis cristatellus from Puerto Rico to Miami, Florida. Species distribution models and bioclimatic data analyses showed lower minimum temperatures, and greater seasonal and annual variation in temperature for Miami compared to Puerto Rico. Two separate introductions of A. cristatellus occurred in Miami about 12 km apart, one in South Miami and the other on Key Biscayne, an offshore island. As predicted from the shift in the thermal climate and the thermal tolerances of other Anolis species in Miami, laboratory acclimation and field acclimatization showed that the introduced South Miami population of A. cristatellus has diverged from its native-range source population by acquiring low-temperature acclimation ability. By contrast, the introduced Key Biscayne population showed little change compared to its source. Our analyses predicted an adaptive response for introduced populations, but our comparisons to native-range sources provided evidence for thermal plasticity in one introduced population but not the other. The rapid acquisition of thermal plasticity by A. cristatellus in South Miami may be advantageous for its long-term persistence there and expansion of its non-native range. Our results also suggest that the common assumption of no trait variation when modeling non-native species distributions is invalid. PMID:22957158

Evidence of Climate-Induced Range Contractions in Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain Watershed, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Eby, Lisa A.; Helmy, Olga; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Young, Michael K.

2014-01-01

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments. PMID:24897341

Holarctic phylogeography of the testate amoeba Hyalosphenia papilio (Amoebozoa: Arcellinida) reveals extensive genetic diversity explained more by environment than dispersal limitation.

PubMed

Heger, Thierry J; Mitchell, Edward A D; Leander, Brian S

2013-10-01

Although free-living protists play essential roles in aquatic and soil ecology, little is known about their diversity and phylogeography, especially in terrestrial ecosystems. We used mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) gene sequences to investigate the genetic diversity and phylogeography of the testate amoeba morphospecies Hyalosphenia papilio in 42 Sphagnum (moss)-dominated peatlands in North America, Europe and Asia. Based on ≥1% sequence divergence threshold, our results from single-cell PCRs of 301 individuals revealed 12 different genetic lineages and both the general mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) model and the automatic barcode gap discovery (ABGD) methods largely support the hypothesis that these 12 H. papilio lineages correspond to evolutionary independent units (i.e. cryptic species). Our data also showed a high degree of genetic heterogeneity within different geographical regions. Furthermore, we used variation partitioning based on partial redundancy analyses (pRDA) to evaluate the contributions of climate and dispersal limitations on the distribution patterns of the different genetic lineages. The largest fraction of the variation in genetic lineage distribution was attributed to purely climatic factors (21%), followed by the joint effect of spatial and bioclimatic factors (13%), and a purely spatial effect (3%). Therefore, these data suggest that the distribution patterns of H. papilio genetic lineages in the Northern Hemisphere are more influenced by climatic conditions than by dispersal limitations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in South American caecilians.

PubMed

Lambertini, Carolina; Becker, C Guilherme; Bardier, Cecilia; da Silva Leite, Domingos; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-04-20

The amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is linked to population declines in anurans and salamanders globally. To date, however, few studies have attempted to screen Bd in live caecilians; Bd-positive caecilians have only been reported in Africa and French Guiana. Here, we performed a retrospective survey of museum preserved specimens to (1) describe spatial patterns of Bd infection in Gymnophiona across South America and (2) test whether areas of low climatic suitability for Bd in anurans predict Bd spatial epidemiology in caecilians. We used quantitative PCR to detect Bd in preserved caecilians collected over a 109 yr period, and performed autologistic regressions to test the effect of bioclimatic metrics of temperature and precipitation, vegetation density, and elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. We detected an overall Bd prevalence of 12.4%, with positive samples spanning the Uruguayan savanna, Brazil's Atlantic Forest, and the Amazon basin. Our autologistic models detected a strong effect of macroclimate, a weaker effect of vegetation density, and no effect of elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. Although most of our Bd-positive records overlapped with reported areas of high climatic suitability for the fungus in the Neotropics, many of our new Bd-positive samples extend far into areas of poor suitability for Bd in anurans. Our results highlight an important gap in the study of amphibian chytridiomycosis: the potential negative impact of Bd on Neotropical caecilians and the hypothetical role of caecilians as Bd reservoirs.

Inferences about winter temperatures and summer rains from the late Quaternary record of C4 perennial grasses and C3 desert shrubs in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmgren, Camille A.; Norris, Jodi; Betancourt, Julio L.

2007-01-01

Late Quaternary histories of two North American desert biomes—C4 grasslands and C3 shrublands—are poorly known despite their sensitivity and potential value in reconstructing summer rains and winter temperatures. Plant macrofossil assemblages from packrat midden series in the northern Chihuahuan Desert show that C4 grasses and annuals typical of desert grassland persisted near their present northern limits throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. By contrast, key C3 desert shrubs appeared somewhat abruptly after 5000cal.yrBP. Bioclimatic envelopes for select C4 and C3 species are mapped to interpret the glacial-interglacial persistence of desert grassland and the mid-to-late Holocene expansion of desert shrublands. The envelopes suggest relatively warm Pleistocene temperatures with moist summers allowed for persistence of C4 grasses, whereas winters were probably too cold (or too wet) for C3 desert shrubs. Contrary to climate model results, core processes associated with the North American Monsoon and moisture transport to the northern Chihuahuan Desert remained intact throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Mid-latitude effects, however, truncated midsummer (July-August) moisture transport north of 35° N. The sudden expansion of desert shrublands after 5000cal.yrBP may be a threshold response to warmer winters associated with increasing boreal winter insolation, and enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability.

Evidence of climate-induced range contractions in bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain watershed, U.S.A.

PubMed

Eby, Lisa A; Helmy, Olga; Holsinger, Lisa M; Young, Michael K

2014-01-01

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments.

Drivers of radial growth and carbon isotope discrimination of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.) across continental gradients in precipitation, vapour pressure deficit and irradiance.

PubMed

Voelker, Steven L; Meinzer, Frederick C; Lachenbruch, Barbara; Brooks, J Renée; Guyette, Richard P

2014-03-01

Tree-ring characteristics are commonly used to reconstruct climate variables, but divergence from the assumption of a single biophysical control may reduce the accuracy of these reconstructions. Here, we present data from bur oaks (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.) sampled within and beyond the current species bioclimatic envelope to identify the primary environmental controls on ring-width indices (RWIs) and carbon stable isotope discrimination (Δ(13) C) in tree-ring cellulose. Variation in Δ(13) C and RWI was more strongly related to leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficit (VPD) at the centre and western edge of the range compared with the northern and wettest regions. Among regions, Δ(13) C of tree-ring cellulose was closely predicted by VPD and light responses of canopy-level Δ(13) C estimated using a model driven by eddy flux and meteorological measurements (R(2)  = 0.96, P = 0.003). RWI and Δ(13) C were positively correlated in the drier regions, while they were negatively correlated in the wettest region. The strength and direction of the correlations scaled with regional VPD or the ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration. Therefore, the correlation strength between RWI and Δ(13) C may be used to infer past wetness or aridity from paleo wood by determining the degree to which carbon gain and growth have been more limited by moisture or light. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Analysis of projected climate change in the Carpathian Basin region based on Holdridge life zone system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Sümegi, Pál

2014-05-01

Nowadays more and more environmental lobbyists believe that climate change must be demonstrated in a new form. The estimated temperature increase can be realized more easily, if the emphasis is on ecological effects of the predicted temperature. For this reason a bioclimatic classification method was used to analyse the projected changes for the Carpathian Basin region. We applied the Holdridge life zone system, which is relatively simple, so our results can be used to inform the population. Holdridge developed a geometric model for climate classification which declares the relationship between classes (life zones) and climate indices (mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ratio). The necessary data for this study was derived from regional climate model (RCM) experiments of the ENSEMBLES project using the SRES A1B emission scenario. The temperature and precipitation data series were bias corrected for the selected RCM simulations. The target area of our investigations is the Carpathian Basin region. Life zones maps were created using the selected RCM simulations and their ensemble mean for the periods: 1961-1990 (T1), 2021-2050 (T2), 2061-2090 (T3). The spatial distribution of life zones and their temporal changes were investigated. According to our results the spatial pattern of life zones changes significantly from T1 to T3. It is possible that some types of life zones (e.g. boreal rain forest) will disappear; and some types (e.g. warm temperate thorn steppe) will appear in the target area. We determined those RCM simulations which predicted the maximum and minimum changes of the spatial pattern of life zones. Maps of T1 were compared to maps of T3 using Cohen's Kappa coefficient. Furthermore, relative extents, vertical distribution patterns and mean centres of life zones have been analysed. These parameters were defined for each decade and also for T1, T2 and T3. The temporal changes of the decadal values were analysed with Mann-Kendall trend test. Overall, our results predict that the mean centres of life zones will shift towards north in most cases. This research was supported by the European Union and the State of Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP-4.2.4.A/ 2-11/1-2012-0001 'National Excellence Program'.

Soil texture and climatc conditions for biocrust growth limitation: a meta analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Thomas; Subbotina, Mariia

2015-04-01

Along with afforestation, attempts have been made to combat desertification by managing soil crusts, and is has been reported that recovery rates of biocrusts are dependent on many factors, including the type, severity, and extent of disturbance; structure of the vascular plant community; conditions of adjoining substrates; availability of inoculation material; and climate during and after disturbance (Belnap & Eldridge 2001). Because biological soil crusts are known to be more stable on and to prefer fine substrates (Belnap 2001), the question arises as to how successful crust management practices can be applied to coarser soil. In previous studies we observed similar crust biomasses on finer soils under arid and on coarser soils under temperate conditions. We hypothesized that the higher water holding capacity of finer substrates would favor crust development, and that the amount of silt and clay in the substrate that is required for enhanced crust development would vary with changes in climatic conditions. In a global meta study, climatic and soil texture threshold values promoting BSC growth were derived. While examining literature sources, it became evident that the amount of studies to be incorporated into this meta analysis was reversely related to the amount of common environmental parameters they share. We selected annual mean precipitaion, mean temperature and the amount of silt and clay as driving variables for crust growth. Response variable was the "relative crust biomass", which was computed per literature source as the ratio between each individual crust biomass value of the given study to the study maximum value reported. We distinguished lichen, green algal, cyanobacterial and moss crusts. To quantify threshold conditions at which crust biomass responded to differences in texture and climate, we (I) determined correlations between bioclimatic variables, (II) calculated linear models to determine the effect of typical climatic variables with soil clay content and with study site as a random effect. (III) Threshold values of texture and climatc effects were identified using a regression tree. Three mean annual temperature classes for texture dependent BSC growth limitation were identified: (1) <9 °C with a threshold value of 25% silt and clay (limited growth on coarser soils), (2) 9-19 °C, where texture did have no influence on relative crust biomass, and (3) >19 °C at soils with <4 or >17% silt and clay. Because biocrust development is limited under certain climatic and soil texture conditions, it is suggested to consider soil texture for biocrust rehabilitation purposes and in biogeochemical modeling of cryptogamic ground covers. References Belnap, J. & Eldridge, D. 2001. Disturbance and Recovery of Biological Soil Crusts. In: Belnap, J. & Lange, O. (eds.) Biological Soil Crusts: Structure, Function, and Management, Springer, Berlin. Belnap, J. 2001. Biological Soil Crusts and Wind Erosion. In: Belnap, J. & Lange, O. (eds.) Fischer, T., Subbotina, M. 2014. Climatic and soil texture threshold values for cryptogamic cover development: a meta analysis. Biologia 69/11:1520-1530,

Prosopis: a global assessment of the biogeography, benefits, impacts and management of one of the world's worst woody invasive plant taxa

PubMed Central

Shackleton, Ross T.; Le Maitre, David C.; Pasiecznik, Nick M.; Richardson, David M.

2014-01-01

Invasive species cause ecological, economic and social impacts and are key drivers of global change. This is the case for the genus Prosopis (mesquite; Fabaceae) where several taxa are among the world's most damaging invasive species. Many contentious issues (‘conflicts of interest’) surround these taxa, and management interventions have not yet sustainably reduced the negative impacts. There is an urgent need to better understand the factors that drive invasions and shape management actions, and to compare the effectiveness of different management approaches. This paper presents a global review of Prosopis, focusing on its distribution, impacts, benefits and approaches to management. Prosopis was found to occur in a 129 countries globally and many more countries are climatically suitable. All areas with naturalized or invasive Prosopis species at present are suitable for more taxa and many Asian and Mediterranean countries with no records of Prosopis are bioclimatically suitable. Several Prosopis species have substantial impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and local and regional economies in their native and even more so in their invasive ranges; others provide multiple benefits to local communities. Management efforts are underway in only a small part of the invaded range. Countries where more research has been done are more likely to implement formal management than those where little published research is available. Management strategies differ among countries; developed nations use mainly mechanical and chemical control whereas developing nations tend to apply control through utilization approaches. A range of countries are also using biological control. Key gaps in knowledge and promising options for management are highlighted. PMID:24899150

Taxonomic changes and description of two new species for the Phyllodactylus lanei complex (Gekkota: Phyllodactylidae) in Mexico.

PubMed

RamÍrez-Reyes, Tonatiuh; Flores-Villela, Oscar

2018-04-10

An integrative taxonomy approach was implemented based on analysis of genetic, phylogenetic, morphological and ecological data to identify the cryptic diversity within the Phyllodactylus lanei complex. At least six species can be identified, of which four are currently considered subspecies: Phyllodactylus lanei, Phyllodactylus rupinus, Phyllodactylus isabelae, Phyllodactylus lupitae and two corresponding to undescribed taxa, which are identified and described in this contribution. These differ from other Mexican geckos in several characters: genetic distance (DNAmt), position in molecular phylogeny (concatened data DNAmt+DNAnu), species tree, morphological characters such as snout-vent length, longitudinal scales, tubercles from head to tail, interorbital scales, scales across venter, third labial-snout scales and rows of tubercles across dorsum; there are also differences in their bioclimatic profiles (temperature and precipitation) and geographical distribution. The most recent studies on taxonomy and evolution of Mexican geckos (Phyllodactylus) show that the diversity of this group of reptiles is currently underestimated, suggesting that more research and conservation efforts are should be addressed at these lizards.

Numerical study of the vertical shading devices effect on the thermal performance of promotional apartments in hot dry climate of Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkouk, Djihed; Bouzir, Tallal Abdel Karim; Mazouz, Said

2018-05-01

The bioclimatic architecture considers the local climatic conditions in order to reconcile maximally the comfort condition of the occupants. Through the several simulations effectuated by the TRNSYS software, this paper shows that the new architecture produced in the south of Algeria following the northern cities tendency is not fully adapted to the hot dry climate of the southern regions, such as the city of Biskra. In these regions, the passive techniques design influence strongly on the thermal architectural space performance. In this regard, diverse of the vertical shading devices size were proposed to evaluate the impact of this passive technique on the thermal performance of the promotional apartments situated in the city of Biskra. The comparative analysis between the simulation results says that the effectiveness of the vertical shading devices on the thermal performance spaces is reducing the indoor air temperature during the summer period. In addition, this analysis shows that promotional apartments are unsuitable for the desert climate.

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.

Lachancea lanzarotensis sp. nov., an ascomycetous yeast isolated from grapes and wine fermentation in Lanzarote, Canary Islands.

PubMed

González, Sara S; Alcoba-Flórez, Julia; Laich, Federico

2013-01-01

During the characterization of the microbiota biodiversity associated with grapes and wineries in different bioclimatic conditions of the Canary Islands (Spain), a novel yeast species was isolated from Lanzarote, the driest wine-producing region of the archipelago. Seven strains isolated from grapes, microvinifications and wineries are described. Sequence analysis of the D1/D2 domain of the LSU rDNA gene and 5.8S-ITS regions revealed that the isolates were phylogenetically a member of the genus Lachancea and are closely related to Lachancea meyersii NRRL Y-27269(T) and Lachancea nothofagi NRRL Y-48670(T). On the basis of morphological, biochemical and physiological characterization and phylogenetic analysis, a novel ascosporogenous yeast species, Lachancea lanzarotensis sp. nov., is proposed. The type strain is L2C-15(T) ( = CBS 12615(T) = CECT 13066(T)) which was isolated from grape berries of Vitis vinifera L. cv. Listán Negro red grape variety in Tinajo, Lanzarote. The MycoBank no. is MB 801390.

Differential response of terpenes and anthraquinones derivatives in Rumex dentatus and Lavandula officinalis to harsh winters across north-western Himalaya.

PubMed

Jan, Sumira; Kamili, Azra N; Parray, Javid A; Bedi, Yashbir S

2016-01-01

Herbs adapted to diverse climates exhibit distinct variability to fluctuating temperatures and demonstrate various metabolic and physiological adaptations to harsh environments. In this research, Rumex dentatus L. and Lavandula officinalis L. were collected before snowfall in September-November to evaluate variability in major phytoconstituents to diverse seasonal regime. LC-MS was used for simultaneous determination of eight anthraquinone derivatives in R. dentatus, i.e. emodin, physcion, chrysophanol, physcion glucoside, endocrocin, emodin glucoside, chrysophanol glucoside and chromone derivatives and monoterpenes in L. officinalis i.e. (Z)-β-ocimene, (E)-β-ocimene, terpene alcohol, terpin-4-ol, acetate ester-linalyl acetate and bicyclic sesquiterpene (E)-caryophyllene. The correlation analysis confirmed significant variation in anthraquinone glucoside and terpene content within Rumex and Lavender, respectively, and altitude was established as the determinant factor in secondary metabolism of both herbs. The study concludes the propagation of herbs in bioclimatic belts which favour accumulation of major constituents and validate their greater pharmacological activity.

The occurrence of two species of Entomophthorales (Entomophthoromycota), pathogens of Sitobion avenae and Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae), in Tunisia.

PubMed

Ben Fekih, Ibtissem; Boukhris-Bouhachem, Sonia; Eilenberg, Jørgen; Allagui, Mohamed Bechir; Jensen, Annette Bruun

2013-01-01

The natural occurrence of entomophthoralean fungi pathogenic towards aphids on cereal and potato crops was investigated in the years 2009, 2010, and 2011. Infected aphids were sampled in three bioclimatic zones in Tunisia (Beja, Cap bon, and Kairouan) and fungal species were determined based on morphological characters such as shape, size, and number of nuclei in the primary conidia. Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) on the internal transcribed spacer 1 region (ITS1) was used to verify morphological determination. Both methods gave consistent results and we documented for the first time the natural occurrence of two fungal species from the order Entomophthorales (phylum Entomophthoromycota), Pandora neoaphidis and Entomophthora planchoniana. Both fungi were recorded on the aphid species Sitobion avenae and Myzus persicae on barley ears and potato leaves, respectively. Moreover, natural mixed infections by both species (P. neoaphidis and E. planchoniana) were documented on the target aphids. This investigation provides basic information of entomopathogenic fungi infecting economically important aphids in Tunisia.

Human-biometeorological conditions in the southern Baltic coast based on the universal thermal climate index (UTCI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolendowicz, Leszek; Półrolniczak, Marek; Szyga-Pluta, Katarzyna; Bednorz, Ewa

2017-10-01

The paper focuses on bioclimatic conditions in the southern part of the Baltic coast based on universal thermal climate index values. Taking into consideration the observational data from coastline stations as well as reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (sea level pressure and the 500 hPa geopotential height), the authors attempt to explain which of the synoptic situations are responsible for the occurrence of days with very strong and extreme cold or heat stress. The obtained results confirm that the extreme thermal heat and cold stress conditions are for the most part associated with high-pressure systems. The researched area is usually situated in the western or southern periphery of the anticyclones. The cold stress also occurs during the advection from west or northwest, caused by the direct influence of a low-pressure system whose center is situated over the North Sea, southern Scandinavia, or the southern Baltic Sea.

Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Porretta, Daniele; Mastrantonio, Valentina; Amendolia, Sara; Gaiarsa, Stefano; Epis, Sara; Genchi, Claudio; Bandi, Claudio; Otranto, Domenico; Urbanelli, Sandra

2013-09-19

Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will implement and refine present data toward a better understanding of the risk represented by I. ricinus to human health.

Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

2017-12-01

Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Farming may be a choice to use lands where forests would fail. Potential croplands would be limited by suitable soils in the north and irrigation in the south. To recommend an economic strategy that would optimize economic gains/losses due to the effects of climate change will require additional research

Predicting the Global Potential Distribution of Four Endangered Panax Species in Middle-and Low-Latitude Regions of China by the Geographic Information System for Global Medicinal Plants (GMPGIS).

PubMed

Du, Zhixia; Wu, Jie; Meng, Xiangxiao; Li, Jinhua; Huang, Linfang

2017-09-28

Global biodiversity is strongly influenced by the decrease in endangered biological species. Predicting the distribution of endangered medicinal plants is necessary for resource conservation. A spatial distribution model-geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS)-is used to predict the global potential suitable distribution of four endangered Panax species, including Panax japonicas (T. Nees) C. A. Meyer and Panax japonicas var. major (Burkill) C. Y. Wu & K. M. Feng distributed in low- and middle-latitude, Panax zingiberensis C. Y. Wu & K. M. Feng and Panax stipuleanatus C. T. Tsai & K. M. Feng in low-latitude regions of China based on seven bioclimatic variables and 600 occurrence points. Results indicate that areas of P. japonicus and P. japonicus var. major are 266.29 × 10⁵ and 77.5 × 10⁵ km², respectively, which are mainly distributed in China and America. By contrast, the areas of P. zingiberensis and P. stipuleanatus are 5.09 × 10⁵ and 2.05 × 10⁵ km², respectively, which are mainly distributed in Brazil and China. P. japonicus has the widest distribution among the four species. The data also indicate that the mean temperature of coldest quarter is the most critical factor. This scientific prediction can be used as reference for resource conservation of endangered plants and as a guide to search for endangered species in previously unknown areas.

Evaluation of the impact of atmospheric pressure in different seasons on blood pressure in patients with arterial hypertension.

PubMed

Kamiński, Marek; Cieślik-Guerra, Urszula I; Kotas, Rafał; Mazur, Piotr; Marańda, Witold; Piotrowicz, Maciej; Sakowicz, Bartosz; Napieralski, Andrzej; Trzos, Ewa; Uznańska-Loch, Barbara; Rechciński, Tomasz; Kurpesa, Małgorzata

2016-01-01

Atmospheric pressure is the most objective weather factor because regardless of if outdoors or indoors it affects all objects in the same way. The majority of previous studies have used the average daily values of atmospheric pressure in a bioclimatic analysis and have found no correlation with blood pressure changes. The main objective of our research was to assess the relationship between atmospheric pressure recorded with a frequency of 1 measurement per minute and the results of 24-h blood pressure monitoring in patients with treated hypertension in different seasons in the moderate climate of the City of Łódź (Poland). The study group consisted of 1662 patients, divided into 2 equal groups (due to a lower and higher average value of atmospheric pressure). Comparisons between blood pressure values in the 2 groups were performed using the Mann-Whitney U test. We observed a significant difference in blood pressure recorded during the lower and higher range of atmospheric pressure: on the days of the spring months systolic (p = 0.043) and diastolic (p = 0.005) blood pressure, and at nights of the winter months systolic blood pressure (p = 0.013). A significant inverse relationship between atmospheric pressure and blood pressure during the spring days and, only for systolic blood pressure, during winter nights was observed. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2016;29(5):783-792. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Latitudinal environmental niches and riverine barriers shaped the phylogeography of the Central Chilean endemic Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae).

PubMed

Viruel, Juan; Catalán, Pilar; Segarra-Moragues, José Gabriel

2014-01-01

The effects of Pleistocene glaciations and geographical barriers on the phylogeographic patterns of lowland plant species in Mediterranean-climate areas of Central Chile are poorly understood. We used Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae), a dioecious geophyte extending 530 km from the Valparaíso to the Bío-Bío Regions, as a case study to disentangle the spatio-temporal evolution of populations in conjunction with latitudinal environmental changes since the Last Inter-Glacial (LIG) to the present. We used nuclear microsatellite loci, chloroplast (cpDNA) sequences and environmental niche modelling (ENM) to construct current and past scenarios from bioclimatic and geographical variables and to infer the evolutionary history of the taxa. We found strong genetic differentiation at nuclear microsatellite loci between the two subspecies of D. humilis, probably predating the LIG. Bayesian analyses of population structure revealed strong genetic differentiation of the widespread D. humilis subsp. humilis into northern and southern population groups, separated by the Maipo river. ENM revealed that the ecological niche differentiation of both groups have been maintained up to present times although their respective geographical distributions apparently fluctuated in concert with the climatic oscillations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene. Genetic data revealed signatures of eastern and western postglacial expansion of the northern populations from the central Chilean depression, whereas the southern ones experienced a rapid southward expansion after the LGM. This study describes the complex evolutionary histories of lowland Mediterranean Chilean plants mediated by the summed effects of spatial isolation caused by riverine geographical barriers and the climatic changes of the Quaternary.

Latitudinal Environmental Niches and Riverine Barriers Shaped the Phylogeography of the Central Chilean Endemic Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae)

PubMed Central

Viruel, Juan; Catalán, Pilar; Segarra-Moragues, José Gabriel

2014-01-01

The effects of Pleistocene glaciations and geographical barriers on the phylogeographic patterns of lowland plant species in Mediterranean-climate areas of Central Chile are poorly understood. We used Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae), a dioecious geophyte extending 530 km from the Valparaíso to the Bío-Bío Regions, as a case study to disentangle the spatio-temporal evolution of populations in conjunction with latitudinal environmental changes since the Last Inter-Glacial (LIG) to the present. We used nuclear microsatellite loci, chloroplast (cpDNA) sequences and environmental niche modelling (ENM) to construct current and past scenarios from bioclimatic and geographical variables and to infer the evolutionary history of the taxa. We found strong genetic differentiation at nuclear microsatellite loci between the two subspecies of D. humilis, probably predating the LIG. Bayesian analyses of population structure revealed strong genetic differentiation of the widespread D. humilis subsp. humilis into northern and southern population groups, separated by the Maipo river. ENM revealed that the ecological niche differentiation of both groups have been maintained up to present times although their respective geographical distributions apparently fluctuated in concert with the climatic oscillations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene. Genetic data revealed signatures of eastern and western postglacial expansion of the northern populations from the central Chilean depression, whereas the southern ones experienced a rapid southward expansion after the LGM. This study describes the complex evolutionary histories of lowland Mediterranean Chilean plants mediated by the summed effects of spatial isolation caused by riverine geographical barriers and the climatic changes of the Quaternary. PMID:25295517

Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools).

PubMed

Attaway, David F; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Falconer, Allan; Manca, Germana; Waters, Nigel M

2016-06-01

Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur. A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus. A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous. This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

Surgical implantation of temperature-sensitive transmitters and data-loggers to record body temperature in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus).

PubMed

Adam, D; Johnston, S D; Beard, L; Nicholson, V; Lisle, A; Gaughan, J; Larkin, R; Theilemann, P; Mckinnon, A; Ellis, W

2016-01-01

Under predicted climate change scenarios, koala distribution in Australia is expected to be adversely affected. Recent studies have attempted to identify suitable habitat, based on models of bioclimatic regions, but to more accurately reflect the thermal tolerance and behavioural adaptations of the various regional populations, the koala's response to periods of heat stress will need to be investigated at the individual animal level. To explore the safety and suitability of temperature-sensitive intra-abdominal implants for monitoring core body temperature in the koala. A temperature-sensitive radio transmitter and thermal iButton data-logger, waxed together as a package, were surgically implanted into the abdominal cavity of four captive koalas. In one animal the implant was tethered and in the other three, it was left free-floating. After 3 months, the implants were removed and all four koalas recovered without complications. The tethering of the package in the one koala resulted in minor inflammation and adhesion, so this practice was subsequently abandoned. The free-floating deployments were complication-free and revealed a diurnal body temperature rhythm, with daily ranges of 0.4-2.8°C. The minimum recorded body temperature was 34.2°C and the maximum was 37.7°C. The difference in the readings obtained from the transmitters and iButtons never exceeded 0.3°C. The suitability of the surgical approach was confirmed, from both the animal welfare and data collection points of view. © 2016 Australian Veterinary Association.

Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schickhoff, U.; Bobrowski, M.; Bohner, J.; Burzle, B.; Chaudhary, R. P.; Gerlitz, L.; Heyken, H.; Lange, J.; Muller, M.; Scholten, T.; Schwab, N.; Wedegartner, R.

2015-05-01

Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines and rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics to apparently complete inertia. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding sensitivity and response of Himalayan treelines to climate warming, based on extensive field observations, published results in the widely scattered literature, and novel data from ongoing research of the present authors. Several sensitivity indicators such as treeline type, treeline form, seed-based regeneration, and growth patterns are evaluated. Since most Himalayan treelines are anthropogenically depressed, observed advances are largely the result of land use change. Near-natural treelines are usually krummholz treelines, which are relatively unresponsive to climate change. Nevertheless, intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth-climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive to temperature change, in particular in winter and pre-monsoon seasons. High pre-monsoon temperature trends will most likely drive tree growth performance in the western and central Himalaya. Ecological niche modelling suggests that bioclimatic conditions for a range expansion of treeline trees will be created during coming decades.

ClimateWizard: A Framework and Easy-to-Use Web-Mapping Tool for Global, Regional, and Local Climate-Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Hoekstra, J.; Lawler, J. J.; Kareiva, P.

2008-12-01

Now that there is overwhelming evidence of global climate change, scientists, managers and planners (i.e. practitioners) need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on particular ecological systems, within specific geographic areas, and at spatial scales they care about, in order to make better land management, planning, and policy decisions. Unfortunately, this application of climate science to real world decisions and planning has proceeded too slowly because we lack tools for translating cutting-edge climate science and climate-model outputs into something managers and planners can work with at local or regional scales (CCSP 2008). To help increase the accessibility of climate information, we have developed a freely-available, easy-to-use, web-based climate-change analysis toolbox, called ClimateWizard, for assessing how climate has and is projected to change at specific geographic locations throughout the world. The ClimateWizard uses geographic information systems (GIS), web-services (SOAP/XML), statistical analysis platforms (e.g. R- project), and web-based mapping services (e.g. Google Earth/Maps, KML/GML) to provide a variety of different analyses (e.g. trends and departures) and outputs (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). Because ClimateWizard analyzes large climate datasets stored remotely on powerful computers, users of the tool do not need to have fast computers or expensive software, but simply need access to the internet. The analysis results are then provided to users in a Google Maps webpage tailored to the specific climate-change question being asked. The ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a framework to be built upon and modified to suit the purposes of specific scientific, management, and policy questions. For example, it can be expanded to include bioclimatic variables (e.g. evapotranspiration) and marine data (e.g. sea surface temperature), as well as improved future climate projections, and climate-change impact analyses involving hydrology, vegetation, wildfire, disease, and food security. By harnessing the power of computer and web- based technologies, the ClimateWizard puts local, regional, and global climate-change analyses in the hands of a wider array of managers, planners, and scientists.

Buried paleoindian-age landscapes in stream valleys of the central plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mandel, R.D.

2008-01-01

A systematic study of late-Quaternary landscape evolution in the Central Plains documented widespread, deeply buried paleosols that represent Paleoindian-age landscapes in terrace fills of large streams (> 5th order), in alluvial fans, and in draws in areas of western Kansas with a thick loess mantle. Alluvial stratigraphic sections were investigated along a steep bio-climatic gradient extending from the moist-subhumid forest-prairie border of the east-central Plains to the dry-subhumid and semi-arid shortgrass prairie of the west-central Plains. Radiocarbon ages indicate that most large streams were characterized by slow aggradation accompanied by cumulic soil development from ca. 11,500 to 10,000??14C yr B.P. In the valleys of some large streams, such as the Ninnescah and Saline rivers, these processes continued into the early Holocene. The soil-stratigraphic record in the draws of western Kansas indicates slow aggradation punctuated by episodes of landscape stability and pedogenesis beginning as early as ca. 13,300??14C yr B.P. and spanning the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary. The development record of alluvial fans in western Kansas is similar to the record in the draws; slow aggradation was punctuated by multiple episodes of soil development between ca. 13,000 and 9000??14C yr B.P. In eastern Kansas and Nebraska, development of alluvial fans was common during the early and middle Holocene, but evidence shows fan development as early as ca. 11,300??14C yr B.P. Buried soils dating between ca. 12,600 and 9000??14C yr B.P. were documented in fans throughout the region. In stream valleys across the Central Plains, rapid alluviation after ca. 9000??14C yr B.P. resulted in deeply buried soils that may harbor Paleoindian cultural deposits. Hence, the paucity of recorded stratified Paleoindian sites in the Central Plains is probably related to poor visibility (i.e., deep burial in alluvial deposits) instead of limited human occupation in the region during the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene. The thick, dark, cumulic A horizons of soils, representing buried Paleoindian-age landscapes, are targets for future archaeological surveys. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological impacts.

Millennial-Scale Temperature Change Velocity in the Continental Northern Neotropics

PubMed Central

Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Bush, Mark; Lozano-García, Socorro; Sosa-Nájera, Susana

2013-01-01

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years. PMID:24312614

Millennial-scale temperature change velocity in the continental northern Neotropics.

PubMed

Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Bush, Mark; Lozano-García, Socorro; Sosa-Nájera, Susana

2013-01-01

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years.

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel, Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems.

PubMed

Inoue, Kentaro; Berg, David J

2017-01-01

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream-dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward-time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater-ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream-dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Unraveling climate influences on the distribution of the parapatric newts Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus.

PubMed

Iannella, Mattia; Cerasoli, Francesco; Biondi, Maurizio

2017-01-01

Climate is often considered as a key ecological factor limiting the capability of expansion of most species and the extent of suitable habitats. In this contribution, we implement Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to study two parapatric amphibians, Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus , investigating if and how climate has influenced their present and past (Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene) distributions. A database of 901 GPS presence records was generated for the two newts. SDMs were built through Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, using the Worldclim bioclimatic variables as predictors. Precipitation-linked variables and the temperature annual range strongly influence the current occurrence patterns of the two Lissotriton species analyzed. The two newts show opposite responses to the most contributing variables, such as BIO7 (temperature annual range), BIO12 (annual precipitation), BIO17 (precipitation of the driest quarter) and BIO19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter). The hypothesis of climate influencing the distributions of these species is also supported by the fact that the co-occurrences within the sympatric area fall in localities characterized by intermediate values of these predictors. Projections to the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene scenarios provided a coherent representation of climate influences on the past distributions of the target species. Computation of pairwise variables interactions and the discriminant analysis allowed a deeper interpretation of SDMs' outputs. Further, we propose a multivariate environmental dissimilarity index (MEDI), derived through a transformation of the multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS), to deal with extrapolation-linked uncertainties in model projections to past climate. Finally, the niche equivalency and niche similarity tests confirmed the link between SDMs outputs and actual differences in the ecological niches of the two species. The different responses of the two species to climatic factors have significantly contributed to shape their current distribution, through contractions, expansions and shifts over time, allowing to maintain two wide allopatric areas with an area of sympatry in Central Italy. Moreover, our SDMs hindcasting shows many concordances with previous phylogeographic studies carried out on the same species, thus corroborating the scenarios of potential distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene emerging from the models obtained.

Forgotten forests--issues and prospects in biome mapping using Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests as a case study.

PubMed

Särkinen, Tiina; Iganci, João R V; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Simon, Marcelo F; Prado, Darién E

2011-11-24

South America is one of the most species diverse continents in the world. Within South America diversity is not distributed evenly at both local and continental scales and this has led to the recognition of various areas with unique species assemblages. Several schemes currently exist which divide the continental-level diversity into large species assemblages referred to as biomes. Here we review five currently available biome maps for South America, including the WWF Ecoregions, the Americas basemap, the Land Cover Map of South America, Morrone's Biogeographic regions of Latin America, and the Ecological Systems Map. The comparison is performed through a case study on the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (SDTF) biome using herbarium data of habitat specialist species. Current biome maps of South America perform poorly in depicting SDTF distribution. The poor performance of the maps can be attributed to two main factors: (1) poor spatial resolution, and (2) poor biome delimitation. Poor spatial resolution strongly limits the use of some of the maps in GIS applications, especially for areas with heterogeneous landscape such as the Andes. Whilst the Land Cover Map did not suffer from poor spatial resolution, it showed poor delimitation of biomes. The results highlight that delimiting structurally heterogeneous vegetation is difficult based on remote sensed data alone. A new refined working map of South American SDTF biome is proposed, derived using the Biome Distribution Modelling (BDM) approach where georeferenced herbarium data is used in conjunction with bioclimatic data. Georeferenced specimen data play potentially an important role in biome mapping. Our study shows that herbarium data could be used as a way of ground-truthing biome maps in silico. The results also illustrate that herbarium data can be used to model vegetation maps through predictive modelling. The BDM approach is a promising new method in biome mapping, and could be particularly useful for mapping poorly known, fragmented, or degraded vegetation. We wish to highlight that biome delimitation is not an exact science, and that transparency is needed on how biomes are used as study units in macroevolutionary and ecological research.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Suggitt, Andrew J; Wilson, Robert J; Duffy, James P; Bennie, Jonathan J

2017-01-01

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forgotten forests - issues and prospects in biome mapping using Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests as a case study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background South America is one of the most species diverse continents in the world. Within South America diversity is not distributed evenly at both local and continental scales and this has led to the recognition of various areas with unique species assemblages. Several schemes currently exist which divide the continental-level diversity into large species assemblages referred to as biomes. Here we review five currently available biome maps for South America, including the WWF Ecoregions, the Americas basemap, the Land Cover Map of South America, Morrone's Biogeographic regions of Latin America, and the Ecological Systems Map. The comparison is performed through a case study on the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (SDTF) biome using herbarium data of habitat specialist species. Results Current biome maps of South America perform poorly in depicting SDTF distribution. The poor performance of the maps can be attributed to two main factors: (1) poor spatial resolution, and (2) poor biome delimitation. Poor spatial resolution strongly limits the use of some of the maps in GIS applications, especially for areas with heterogeneous landscape such as the Andes. Whilst the Land Cover Map did not suffer from poor spatial resolution, it showed poor delimitation of biomes. The results highlight that delimiting structurally heterogeneous vegetation is difficult based on remote sensed data alone. A new refined working map of South American SDTF biome is proposed, derived using the Biome Distribution Modelling (BDM) approach where georeferenced herbarium data is used in conjunction with bioclimatic data. Conclusions Georeferenced specimen data play potentially an important role in biome mapping. Our study shows that herbarium data could be used as a way of ground-truthing biome maps in silico. The results also illustrate that herbarium data can be used to model vegetation maps through predictive modelling. The BDM approach is a promising new method in biome mapping, and could be particularly useful for mapping poorly known, fragmented, or degraded vegetation. We wish to highlight that biome delimitation is not an exact science, and that transparency is needed on how biomes are used as study units in macroevolutionary and ecological research. PMID:22115315

Wild populations of Triatoma infestans: Compilation of positive sites and comparison of their ecological niche with domestic population niche.

PubMed

Brenière, Simone Frédérique; Buitrago, Rosio; Waleckx, Etienne; Depickère, Stéphanie; Sosa, Victor; Barnabé, Christian; Gorla, David

2017-12-01

For several years, the wild populations of Triatoma infestans, main vector of Trypanosoma cruzi causing Chagas disease, have been considered or suspected of being a source of reinfestation of villages. The number of sites reported for the presence of wild T. infestans, often close to human habitats, has greatly increased, but these data are scattered in several publications, and others obtained by our team in Bolivia have not been published yet. Herein is compiled the largest number of wild sites explored for the presence of T. infestans collected with two methods The standardized methods aimed to determine the relationship between wild T. infestans and the ecoregion, and the directed method help to confirm the presence/absence of triatomines in the ecoregions. Entomological indices were compared between ecoregions and an environmental niche modelling approach, based on bioclimatic variables, was applied. The active search for wild T. infestans in Bolivia suggests a discontinuous distribution from the Andean valleys to the lowlands (Chaco), while the models used suggest a continuous distribution between the two regions and very large areas where wild populations remain to be discovered. The results compile the description of different habitats where these populations were found, and we demonstrate that the environmental niches of wild and domestic populations, defined by climatic variables, are similar but not equivalent, showing that during domestication, T. infestans has conquered new spaces with wider ranges of temperature and precipitation. The great diversity of wild T. infestans habitats and the comparison of their ecological niches with that of domestic populations confirm the behavioural plasticity of the species that increase the possibility of contact with humans. The result of the geographical distribution model of the wild populations calls for more entomological vigilance in the corresponding areas in the Southern Cone countries and in Bolivia. The current presentation is the most comprehensive inventory of wild T. infestans-positive sites that can be used as a reference for further entomological vigilance in inhabited areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Species Distribution of Flat-Headed Cats (Prionailurus planiceps), an Endangered South-East Asian Small Felid

PubMed Central

Hearn, Andrew J.; Hesse, Deike; Mohamed, Azlan; Traeholdt, Carl; Cheyne, Susan M.; Sunarto, Sunarto; Jayasilan, Mohd-Azlan; Ross, Joanna; Shapiro, Aurélie C.; Sebastian, Anthony; Dech, Stefan; Breitenmoser, Christine; Sanderson, Jim; Duckworth, J. W.; Hofer, Heribert

2010-01-01

Background The flat-headed cat (Prionailurus planiceps) is one of the world's least known, highly threatened felids with a distribution restricted to tropical lowland rainforests in Peninsular Thailand/Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. Throughout its geographic range large-scale anthropogenic transformation processes, including the pollution of fresh-water river systems and landscape fragmentation, raise concerns regarding its conservation status. Despite an increasing number of camera-trapping field surveys for carnivores in South-East Asia during the past two decades, few of these studies recorded the flat-headed cat. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study, we designed a predictive species distribution model using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to reassess the potential current distribution and conservation status of the flat-headed cat. Eighty-eight independent species occurrence records were gathered from field surveys, literature records, and museum collections. These current and historical records were analysed in relation to bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), altitude (SRTM) and minimum distance to larger water resources (Digital Chart of the World). Distance to water was identified as the key predictor for the occurrence of flat-headed cats (>50% explanation). In addition, we used different land cover maps (GLC2000, GlobCover and SarVision LLC for Borneo), information on protected areas and regional human population density data to extract suitable habitats from the potential distribution predicted by the MaxEnt model. Between 54% and 68% of suitable habitat has already been converted to unsuitable land cover types (e.g. croplands, plantations), and only between 10% and 20% of suitable land cover is categorised as fully protected according to the IUCN criteria. The remaining habitats are highly fragmented and only a few larger forest patches remain. Conclusion/Significance Based on our findings, we recommend that future conservation efforts for the flat-headed cat should focus on the identified remaining key localities and be implemented through a continuous dialogue between local stakeholders, conservationists and scientists to ensure its long-term survival. The flat-headed cat can serve as a flagship species for the protection of several other endangered species associated with the threatened tropical lowland forests and surface fresh-water sources in this region. PMID:20305809

Modelling the species distribution of flat-headed cats (Prionailurus planiceps), an endangered South-East Asian small felid.

PubMed

Wilting, Andreas; Cord, Anna; Hearn, Andrew J; Hesse, Deike; Mohamed, Azlan; Traeholdt, Carl; Cheyne, Susan M; Sunarto, Sunarto; Jayasilan, Mohd-Azlan; Ross, Joanna; Shapiro, Aurélie C; Sebastian, Anthony; Dech, Stefan; Breitenmoser, Christine; Sanderson, Jim; Duckworth, J W; Hofer, Heribert

2010-03-17

The flat-headed cat (Prionailurus planiceps) is one of the world's least known, highly threatened felids with a distribution restricted to tropical lowland rainforests in Peninsular Thailand/Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. Throughout its geographic range large-scale anthropogenic transformation processes, including the pollution of fresh-water river systems and landscape fragmentation, raise concerns regarding its conservation status. Despite an increasing number of camera-trapping field surveys for carnivores in South-East Asia during the past two decades, few of these studies recorded the flat-headed cat. In this study, we designed a predictive species distribution model using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to reassess the potential current distribution and conservation status of the flat-headed cat. Eighty-eight independent species occurrence records were gathered from field surveys, literature records, and museum collections. These current and historical records were analysed in relation to bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), altitude (SRTM) and minimum distance to larger water resources (Digital Chart of the World). Distance to water was identified as the key predictor for the occurrence of flat-headed cats (>50% explanation). In addition, we used different land cover maps (GLC2000, GlobCover and SarVision LLC for Borneo), information on protected areas and regional human population density data to extract suitable habitats from the potential distribution predicted by the MaxEnt model. Between 54% and 68% of suitable habitat has already been converted to unsuitable land cover types (e.g. croplands, plantations), and only between 10% and 20% of suitable land cover is categorised as fully protected according to the IUCN criteria. The remaining habitats are highly fragmented and only a few larger forest patches remain. Based on our findings, we recommend that future conservation efforts for the flat-headed cat should focus on the identified remaining key localities and be implemented through a continuous dialogue between local stakeholders, conservationists and scientists to ensure its long-term survival. The flat-headed cat can serve as a flagship species for the protection of several other endangered species associated with the threatened tropical lowland forests and surface fresh-water sources in this region.

Morpho-Physiological Variation of White Spruce Seedlings from Various Seed Sources and Implications for Deployment under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Villeneuve, Isabelle; Lamhamedi, Mohammed S.; Benomar, Lahcen; Rainville, André; DeBlois, Josianne; Beaulieu, Jean; Bousquet, Jean; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Margolis, Hank

2016-01-01

Because of changes in climatic conditions, tree seeds originating from breeding programs may no longer be suited to sites where they are currently sent. As a consequence, new seed zones may have to be delineated. Assisted migration consists of transferring seed sources that match the future climatic conditions to which they are currently adapted. It represents a strategy that could be used to mitigate the potential negative consequences of climate change on forest productivity. Decisions with regard to the choice of the most appropriate seed sources have to rely on appropriate knowledge of morpho-physiological responses of trees. To meet this goal, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) seedlings from eight seed orchards were evaluated during two years in a forest nursery, and at the end of the first growing season on three plantation sites located in different bioclimatic domains in Quebec. The morpho-physiological responses obtained at the end of the second growing season (2+0) in the nursery made it possible to cluster the orchards into three distinct groups. Modeling growth curves of these different groups showed that the height growth of seedlings from the second-generation and southern first-generation seed orchards was significantly higher than that of those from other orchards, by at least 6%. A multiple regression model with three climatic variables (average growing season temperature, average July temperature, length of the growing season) showed that the final height of seedlings (2+0) from the first-generation seed orchards was significantly related to the local climatic conditions at the orchard sites of origin where parental trees from surrounding natural populations were sampled to provide grafts for orchard establishment. Seedling height growth was significantly affected by both seed source origins and planting sites, but the relative ranking of the different seed sources was maintained regardless of reforestation site. This knowledge could be used, in conjunction with transfer models, to refine operational seed transfer rules and select the most suitable sites in an assisted migration strategy. PMID:27746795

Estimation of Mangrove Net Primary Production and Carbon Sequestration service using Light Use Efficiency model in the Sunderban Biosphere region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sannigrahi, Srikanta; Sen, Somnath; Paul, Saikat

2016-04-01

Net Primary Production (NPP) of mangrove ecosystem and its capacity to sequester carbon from the atmosphere may be used to quantify the regulatory ecosystem services. Three major group of parameters has been set up as BioClimatic Parameters (BCP): (Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Absorbed PAR (APAR), Fraction of PAR (FPAR), Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Light Use Efficiency (LUE)), BioPhysical Parameters (BPP) :(Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), scaled NDVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), scaled EVI, Optimised and Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (OSAVI, MSAVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI)), and Environmental Limiting Parameters (ELP) (Temperature Stress (TS), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI), Normalize Soil Water Index (NSWI), Water Stress Scalar (WS), Inversed WS (iWS) Land Surface Temperature (LST), scaled LST, Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), scaled VPD, and Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI)). Several LUE models namely Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA), Eddy Covariance - LUE (EC-LUE), Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM), Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), MOD NPP model, Temperature and Greenness Model (TG), Greenness and Radiation model (GR) and MOD17 was adopted in this study to assess the spatiotemporal nature of carbon fluxes. Above and Below Ground Biomass (AGB & BGB) was calculated using field based estimation of OSAVI and NDVI. Microclimatic zonation has been set up to assess the impact of coastal climate on environmental limiting factors. MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based yearly Gross Primary Production (GPP) and NPP product MOD17 was also tested with LUE based results with standard model validation statistics: Root Mean Square of Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MEA), Bias, Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The performance of CASA NPP was tested with the ground based NPP with R2 = 0.89 RMSE = 3.28 P = 0.01. Among the all adopted models, EC-LUE and VPM models has explained the maximum variances (>80%) in comparison to the other model. Study result has also showed that the BPP has explained the maximum model variances (>93%) followed by BCP (>65%) and ELP (>50%). Scaled WS, iWS, LST, VPD, NDVI was performed better in a minimum ELP condition whereas surface moisture and wetness was highly correlated with the AGB and NPP (R2 = 0.86 RMSE = 1.83). During this study period (2000-2013), it was found that there was a significantly declining trend (R2 = 0.32 P = 0.05) of annual NPP and the maximum decrease was found in the eastern part where built-up area was mainly accounted for reduction of NPP. BCP are explained higher variances (>80%) in the optimum climatic condition exist along the coastal stretches in comparison to the landward extent (>45%).

Past, present and future of passive homes in solar village 3, Athens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalogridis, Achilles

Solar village 3 in Pefki, Athens, was part of an ambitious program for the promotion of solar technology, applied to a large scale social housing scheme, designed in mid 80's and firstly inhabited in the early 1990's. Among the aims of the project was the demonstration of the latest of technology in active solar systems and passive techniques, incorporated in a new settlement's layout and houses' building envelop, in order to create an energy saving, comfortable environment. More than fifteen years later, the housing complex remains the largest residential development of bioclimatic "solar" architecture in Athens, with the active and passive solar systems providing space and water heating for about 1750 inhabitants. The study focuses in the passive solar systems that have been applied to a number of the buildings of the settlement. The systems provide space heating with no need of any active mechanism, however with demand of the participation of the end users for their proper operation. The essay reviews various previous studies, monitoring reports and criticisms that have appeared throughout the past years, and identifies how the houses perform today, through a recent survey, sample monitoring and thermal comfort simulation. The report records things that have changed, features which worked well or others that did not and comments on the residents' behaviour. Interesting findings come into question, regarding the passive solar systems, their integration into the building's design, their current condition and their contribution to energy savings and thermal comfort conditions. Finally, current plans concerning the future of the settlement are highlighted, and considerations about the houses sustainability are suggested.

Serological Evidence of Lyssaviruses among Bats on Southwestern Indian Ocean Islands.

PubMed

Mélade, Julien; McCulloch, Stewart; Ramasindrazana, Beza; Lagadec, Erwan; Turpin, Magali; Pascalis, Hervé; Goodman, Steven M; Markotter, Wanda; Dellagi, Koussay

2016-01-01

We provide serological evidence of lyssavirus circulation among bats on southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) islands. A total of 572 bats belonging to 22 species were collected on Anjouan, Mayotte, La Réunion, Mauritius, Mahé and Madagascar and screened by the Rapid Fluorescent Focus Inhibition Test for the presence of neutralising antibodies against the two main rabies related lyssaviruses circulating on the African continent: Duvenhage lyssavirus (DUVV) and Lagos bat lyssavirus (LBV), representing phylogroups I and II, respectively. A total of 97 and 42 sera were able to neutralise DUVV and LBV, respectively. No serum neutralised both DUVV and LBV but most DUVV-seropositive bats (n = 32/220) also neutralised European bat lyssavirus 1 (EBLV-1) but not Rabies lyssavirus (RABV), the prototypic lyssavirus of phylogroup I. These results highlight that lyssaviruses belonging to phylogroups I and II circulate in regional bat populations and that the putative phylogroup I lyssavirus is antigenically closer to DUVV and EBLV-1 than to RABV. Variation between bat species, roost sites and bioclimatic regions were observed. All brain samples tested by RT-PCR specific for lyssavirus RNA were negative.

Thymus mastichina L. essential oils from Murcia (Spain): Composition and antioxidant, antienzymatic and antimicrobial bioactivities

PubMed Central

Carrasco, Alejandro; Martinez-Gutierrez, Ramiro; Tomas, Virginia; Tudela, Jose

2018-01-01

The compositions of essential oils (EOs) from Spanish marjoram (Thymus mastichina L.) grown in several bioclimatic zones of Murcia (SE Spain) were studied to determine their absolute and relative concentrations using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. 1,8-Cineole and linalool were the main components, followed by α-pinene, β-pinene and α-terpineol. (–)-Linalool, (+)-α-terpineol and (+)-α-pinene were the most abundant enantiomers. When the antioxidant capacities of T. mastichina EOs and their compounds were measured by five methods, EOs and linalool, linalyl acetate, α-terpinene and γ-terpinene, among others, showed antioxidant activities. All four T. mastichina EOs inhibited both lipoxygenase and acetylcholinesterase activities, and they might be useful for further research into inflammatory and Alzheimer diseases. Bornyl acetate and limonene showed the highest lipoxygenase inhibition and 1,8-cineole was the best acetylcholinesterase inhibitor. Moreover, these EOs inhibited the growth of Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Candida albicans due to the contribution of their individual compounds. The results underline the potential use of these EOs in manufactured products, such as foodstuff, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. PMID:29304179

Flora-On: Occurrence data of the vascular flora of mainland Portugal.

PubMed

Pereira, Ana Júlia; Francisco, Ana; Porto, Miguel

2016-01-01

The Flora-On dataset currently includes 253,310 occurrence records for the class Embryopsidae (vascular plants), comprising data collated via the platform http://flora-on.pt/ relating to observation records of vascular plants across mainland Portugal. Observations are uploaded directly to the database primarily by experienced botanists and naturalists, typically on a weekly basis, and consist of geo-referenced data points for species (or infraspecific taxa) along with their date of observation and phenological state. The Flora-On project aims to compile and make publicly accessible chorological, ecological, morphological and photographic information for the entire vascular flora of Portugal. The project's website offers powerful query and visualization capabilities, of which we highlight the probabilistic bioclimatic and phenological queries which operate based on the empirical density distributions of species in those variables. Flora-On was created and continues to be maintained by volunteers who are Associate members of Sociedade Portuguesa de Botânica (Botanical Society of Portugal). Given its focus on research-grade and current data, the Flora-On project represents a significant contribution to the knowledge of the present distribution and status of the Portuguese flora.

Allergenic pollen in the subdesert areas of the Iberian peninsula.

PubMed

Cariñanos, P; Galán, C; Alcázar, P; Domínguez, E

2000-01-01

The yearly distribution of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, two of the most common types of pollen in a rural area located in the southeastern part of the Iberian peninsula, was studied over a 3-year period (1995-1997). The particular bioclimatic conditions of the area, such as its subdesert climate, extreme dryness and high mountain location (1,000 m above sea level), have led to the adaptation and abundance of these species in this area. They usually flower in the second half of the year, and are the main pollen types collected in the samples in that time period. The Artemisia pollen levels recorded are the highest in Spain, since there are several species in the area which flower at different times. Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae pollen counts are also very high. The severity of both pollen types was also analyzed. The height of the sampler was taken into account because the quantities at human height can be considerably higher than those recorded at 20 m off the ground. It was concluded that both pollen types should be considered some of the main causes of allergy in this area.

Dynamics of Soil Properties and Plant Composition during Postagrogenic Evolution in Different Bioclimatic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telesnina, V. M.; Kurganova, I. N.; Lopes de Gerenyu, V. O.; Ovsepyan, L. A.; Lichko, V. I.; Ermolaev, A. M.; Mirin, D. M.

2017-12-01

The postagrogenic dynamics of acidity and some parameters of humus status have been studied in relation to the restoration of zonal vegetation in southern taiga (podzolic and soddy-podzolic soils ( Retisols)), coniferous-broadleaved (subtaiga) forest (gray forest soil ( Luvic Phaeozem)), and forest-steppe (gray forest soil ( Haplic Phaeozem)) subzones. The most significant transformation of the studied properties of soils under changing vegetation has been revealed for poor sandy soils of southern taiga. The degree of changes in the content and stocks of organic carbon, the enrichment of humus in nitrogen, and acidity in the 0- to 20-cm soil layer during the postagrogenic evolution decreases from north to south. The adequate reflection of soil physicochemical properties in changes of plant cover is determined by the climatic zone and the land use pattern. A correlation between the changes in the soil acidity and the portion of acidophilic species in the plant cover is revealed for the southern taiga subzone. A positive relationship is found between the content of organic carbon and the share of species preferring humus-rich soils in the forest-steppe zone.

Climatic changes and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-04-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications in relation with public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable of certain pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned by flooded areas extent and specific habitats and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations and future previsions. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects bird, horse and sometimes man. Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it's possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Geography, environment and organismal traits in the diversification of a major tropical herbaceous angiosperm radiation

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Abstract The generation of plant diversity involves complex interactions between geography, environment and organismal traits. Many macroevolutionary processes and emergent patterns have been identified in different plant groups through the study of spatial data, but rarely in the context of a large radiation of tropical herbaceous angiosperms. A powerful system for testing interrelated biogeographical hypotheses is provided by the terrestrial bromeliads, a Neotropical group of extensive ecological diversity and importance. In this investigation, distributional data for 564 species of terrestrial bromeliads were used to estimate variation in the position and width of species-level hydrological habitat occupancy and test six core hypotheses linking geography, environment and organismal traits. Taxonomic groups and functional types differed in hydrological habitat occupancy, modulated by convergent and divergent trait evolution, and with contrasting interactions with precipitation abundance and seasonality. Plant traits in the Bromeliaceae are intimately associated with bioclimatic differentiation, which is in turn strongly associated with variation in geographical range size and species richness. These results emphasize the ecological relevance of structural-functional innovation in a major plant radiation. PMID:29479409

Patterns of Diversity and Abundance of Carrion Insect Assemblages in the Natural Park “Hoces del Río Riaza” (Central Spain)

PubMed Central

Baz, Arturo; Cifrián, Blanca; Martín-Vega, Daniel

2014-01-01

Abstract The patterns of diversity and abundance of the carrion insect species in the different habitats of the Natural Park “Hoces del Río Riaza” (central Spain) were studied with the use of carrion-baited traps. Representativeness of the inventories was assessed with the calculation of randomized species richness curves and nonparametric estimators. Coleoptera families, Silphidae and Dermestidae, and Diptera families, Calliphoridae and Muscidae, were dominant in every sampling habitat, but differences in the patterns of diversity and abundance were found. Lusitanian oakwood and riparian forest were the most diverse habitats with high abundance of saprophagous species, whereas more open (i.e., exposed to continuous sunlight during the day) habitats showed lower diversity values and a different species composition and distribution of species abundance, favoring thermophilous species and necrophagous species with high tolerance to different environmental conditions. Differences in the bioclimatical features of the sampled habitats are suggested to explain the composition and diversity of the carrion insect assemblages in different environments. PMID:25368080

Compositional variability in Mediterranean archaeofaunas from Upper Paleolithic Southwest Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Emily Lena

2018-03-01

Recent meta-analyses of Upper Paleolithic Southwestern European archaeofaunas (Jones, 2015, 2016) have identified a consistent "Mediterranean" cluster from the Last Glacial Maximum through the early Holocene, suggesting similarities in environment and/or consistency in hunting strategy across this region through time despite radical changes in climate. However, while these archaeofaunas from this cluster all derive from sites located within today's Mediterranean bioclimatic region, many of them are from locations far from the Mediterranean Sea - Atlantic Portugal, the Spanish Meseta - which today differ significantly from each other in biotic composition. In this paper, I explore clustering (through cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling) within the Mediterranean archaeofaunal group. I test for the influence of sample size as well as the geographic variables of site elevation, latitude, and longitude on variability in the large mammal portions of archaeofaunal assemblages. ANOVA shows no relationship between cluster-defined groups and site elevation or longitude; instead, site latitude appears to be a primary contributor to patterning. However, the overall compositional similarity of the Mediterranean archaeofaunas in this dataset suggests more consistency than variability in Upper Paleolithic hunting strategy in this region.

Divergent environmental filters drive functional segregation of European peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robroek, B.; Jassey, V.; Bragazza, L.; Buttler, A.

2015-12-01

Plant communities are largely shaped by prevailing climatic conditions. As a result, environmental change is expected to alter the (functional) composition in plant communities. Because plants, and particularly the composition of plant species, play an important role in driving ecosystem processes, it is crucial that we improve our understanding on which environmental factors are most important in shaping plant communities. Here we presnt the results for a cross-Eurpean study, were we assessed the role of environmnetal conditions on plant community composition in 56 peatlands. We show that plant species richness and diversity are relatively stable across the main environmental gradients. Nevertheless, we observe large changes in the plant community structure. In other words, species turnover increased with increasing differences in environmental viariables. Such turnover in the community composition is largely associated to gradients temperature and precipitation, whilst nutrients -often reported as major driver for changes in peatland ecosystems- were only important at the end of the gradient of current deposition levels in Europe. Using a combination of species distribution modelling and species co-occurence patterns, we identified two spatially non-exclusive groups of plant species. Species within a distinct group responded similarly to bioclimatic variables and nutrient deposition levels, whilst between group response was mirrored. These results suggest that these two groups of plants are subjected to divergent environmental filters. Additionally, European peatlands aggregate into two distinct clusters based on plant functional trait composition. Each cluster was dominated by plant species from either one of the two co-response groups. Overall, our results demonstrate that environmental change results in a gradual replacement of plant species from two divergent groups, consequently affecting the functional trait composition in peatlands.

[Current and future ecological niche of Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) in the Neotropical region].

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, David A

2016-09-01

The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, Joshua J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2010-01-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Environmental niche divergence among three dune shrub sister species with parapatric distributions

PubMed Central

Chefaoui, Rosa M.; Correia, Otília; Bonal, Raúl; Hortal, Joaquín

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus, which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Methods Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener's index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling. Key Results The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides–spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene fine-textured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii, the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations. Conclusions: The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary processes driving the evolution of species adaptations and how they determine their current geographical ranges. PMID:28334085

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the Western hemisphere.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J; Shafer, Sarah L; Bancroft, Betsy A; Blaustein, Andrew R

2010-02-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Spatial distribution of pingos in Northern Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grosse, G.; Jones, Benjamin M.

2010-01-01

Pingos are prominent periglacial landforms in vast regions of the Arctic and Subarctic. They are indicators of modern and past conditions of permafrost, surface geology, hydrology and climate. A first version of a detailed spatial geodatabase of more than 6000 pingo locations in a 3.5 ?? 106 km2 region of Northern Asia was assembled from topographic maps. A first order analysis was carried out with respect to permafrost, landscape characteristics, surface geology, hydrology, climate, and elevation datasets using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Pingo heights in the dataset vary between 2 and 37 m, with a mean height of 4.8 m. About 64% of the pingos occur in continuous permafrost with high ice content and thick sediments; another 19% in continuous permafrost with moderate ice content and thick sediments. The majority of these pingos likely formed through closed system freezing, typical of those located in drained thermokarst lake basins of northern lowlands with continuous permafrost. About 82% of the pingos are located in the tundra bioclimatic zone. Most pingos in the dataset are located in regions with mean annual ground temperatures between -3 and -11 ??C and mean annual air temperatures between -7 and -18 ??C. The dataset confirms that surface geology and hydrology are key factors for pingo formation and occurrence. Based on model predictions for near-future permafrost distribution, hundreds of pingos along the southern margins of permafrost will be located in regions with thawing permafrost by 2100, which ultimately may lead to increased occurrence of pingo collapse. Based on our dataset and previously published estimates of pingo numbers from other regions, we conclude that there are more than 11 000 pingos on Earth. ?? 2010 Author(s).

A thermodynamic comparison of arboreal and terrestrial sleeping sites for dry-habitat chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) at the Toro-Semliki Wildlife Reserve, Uganda.

PubMed

Samson, David R; Hunt, Kevin D

2012-09-01

The nightly construction of an arboreal sleeping platform (SP) has been observed among every chimpanzee's population studied to date. Here, we report on bioclimatic aspects of SP site choice among dry-habitat chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) at the Toro-Semliki Wildlife Reserve, Uganda. We placed a portable weather monitor within 1 m of chimpanzee SPs and compared the microenvironment of this site with terrestrial monitors placed 10 cm above the ground directly underneath the simultaneously studied SP. We calculated physical "comfort levels" of monitored sites using the RayMan thermophysiological model that we modified to take ape body proportions into account. The RayMan tool gauges energy balance using wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, and heat index in conjunction with the study subject's mass and stature to determine whether the individual is in energy balance or homeostasis. We found that (1) terrestrial microclimates have greater homeostatic potential than arboreal microclimates, and (2) there is a significant positive linear relationship between wind speed and height of SP in the forest canopy. Advantages of terrestrial sites are that they require lesser energetic expenditure to stabilize the body when the SP is under construction and perhaps during use as well. We found that terrestrial sites also had better homeostatic potentials. This combination of advantages explains why SPs are so often sited terrestrially in habitats where predation risk is low. Early hominins must have had technological or social measures to avoid or deter predators that were significantly advanced over those found among chimpanzees before they began sleeping on the ground. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ground beetles in Mediterranean olive agroecosystems: Their significance and functional role as bioindicators (Coleoptera, Carabidae)

PubMed Central

Mazzei, Antonio; Bonacci, Teresa; Scalercio, Stefano; Iannotta, Nino; Brandmayr, Pietro

2018-01-01

The impact of agricultural practices and soil management on the communities of arthropods living in the agricultural landscape is acknowledged as a critical issue by the literature, and it needs to be better investigated to improve the ecological sustainability of agriculture. In the present study, we aimed to study how soil management affect carabid species distribution in one of the most typical agroecosystem of the Mediterranean region, i.e. the olive grove. In South Italy olive plantations feature different types of soil management, from tillage to half- or full-cover cropping. Species distribution has been examined for a total of 10,189 individuals and 62 species collected from 17 sites. Notably from our analysis we have observed that three factors (climax vegetation, soil features and soil management) explained half of the data variability. The composition of species groupings mirrors both bioclimatic conditions (climax vegetation) and soil features, especially watering, while soil management affects the species distribution, with different intensity from site to site. Eleven species have been recognized as the most abundant in the different facets of the studied olive groves and consequently designated as characteristics of the olive agroecosystem. The species traits of the sampled species have been weighted for a compelling evaluation of the effects of agricultural management on biodiversity, showing uniform traits distribution when coping with the ecological factors that characterize the different plantation facets. We have found that carabid beetles can be used as model organisms for studying the effects of agricultural practices. Our study suggests that the interaction of man-induced trasformation with the natural background of the olive agroecosystem may be difficult to disentangle, so that such complexity must be taken into account when carabid beetles are expected to provide an ecosystem service for good agricultural practices. PMID:29558493

Applicability of ISSR and DAMD markers for phyto-molecular characterization and association with some important biochemical traits of Dendrobium nobile, an endangered medicinal orchid.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Paromik; Kumaria, Suman; Tandon, Pramod

2015-09-01

Dendrobium nobile is an important medicinal orchid having profound importance in traditional herbal drug preparations and pharmacopeias worldwide. Due to various anthropogenic pressures the natural populations of this important orchid species are presently facing threats of extinction. In the present study, genetic and chemical diversity existing amongst 6 natural populations of D. nobile were assessed using molecular markers, and the influence of genetic factors on its phytochemical activity especially antioxidant potential was determined. Molecular fingerprinting of the orchid taxa was performed using ISSR and DAMD markers along with the estimation of total phenolics, flavonoids and alkaloid contents. Antioxidant activity was also measured using DPPH and FRAP assays which cumulatively revealed a significant level of variability across the sampled populations. The representatives from Sikkim in Northeast India revealed higher phytochemical activity whereas those from Mizoram showed lesser activity. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that variation amongst the populations was significantly higher than within the populations. The data generated by UPGMA and Bayesian analytical models were compared in order to estimate the genetic relationships amongst the D. nobile germplasm sampled from different geographical areas of Northeast India. Interestingly, identical grouping patterns were exhibited by both the approaches. The results of the present study detected a high degree of existing genetic and phytochemical variation amongst the populations in relation to bioclimatic and geographic locations of populations. Our results strongly establish that the cumulative marker approach could be the best suited for assessing the genetic relationships with high accuracy amongst distinct D. nobile accessions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surface aerosol and rehabilitation properties of ground-level atmosphere in the mountains of the North Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reps, Valentina; Efimenko, Natalia; Povolotskaya, Nina; Abramtsova, Anna; Ischenko, Dmitriy; Senik, Irina; Slepikh, Victor

2017-04-01

The rehabilitative properties (RP) of ground-level atmosphere (GA) of Russian resorts are considered as natural healing resources and received state legal protection [1]. Due to global urbanization the chemical composition and particle size distribution of the surface aerosol are changing rapidly. However, the influence of surface aerosol on the RP of GA has been insufficiently studied. At the resort region of the North Caucasus complex monitoring (aerosol, trace gases NOx, CO, O3, CH4; periodically - heavy metals) is performed at two high levels (860 masl - a park zone of a large mountain resort, 2070 masl - alpine grassland, the net station). The results of the measurements are used in programs of bioclimatic, landscape and medical monitoring to specify the influence of aerosol on rehabilitation properties of the environment and human adaptative reserves. The aerosol particles of size range 500-1000 nm are used as a marker of the pathogenic effect of aerosol [2]. In the conditions of regional urbanization and complicated mountain atmospheric circulation the influence of aerosol on RP of GA and the variability of heart rhythm with the volunteers at different heights were investigated. At the height of 860 masl (urbanized resort) there have been noticed aerosol variations in the range of 0,04-0,35 particles/cm3 (slightly aerosol polluted), in mountain conditions - background pollution aerosol level. The difference of bioclimatic conditions at the specified high-rise levels has been referred to the category of contrasts. The natural aero ionization ∑(N+)+(N-) varied from 960 ion/cm3 to 1460 ion/cm3 in the resort park (860 m); from 1295 ion/cm3 to 4850 ion/cm3 on the Alpine meadow (2070 m); from 1128 ion/cm3 to 3420 ion/cm3 - on the tested site near the edge of the pinewood (1720 m). In the group of volunteers the trip from low-hill terrain zone (860 m) to the lower zone of highlands (2070 m) caused the activation of neuro and humoral regulation, vegetative and central parts of nervous system, psychoemotional status, normalization of frequency spectrum of brain activity and organism adaptation level. The researches are still being conducted. References: 1. The federal law "About Natural Medical Resources, Medical and Improving Areas and Resorts" from 23.02.1995 № 26-fl. 2. The technique of balneological assessment of forest-park landscapes of mountain territories for the purposes of climate-landscape therapy in case of resort treatment of the contingent subject to FMBA of Russia: Handbook for doctors//Registration number 82-15 from 17.12.2015 - Pyatigorsk:MHRF:FMBA of Russia, 2015. -26 p.

Soil cover patterns and dynamics impact on GHG fluxes in RF native and man-changed ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasenev, Ivan; Nesterova, Olga

2017-04-01

The increased soil spatial-temporal variability is mutual feature for most mature natural and particularly man-changed terrestrial ecosystems in Central and Far-East regions of Russia with soil cover strongly pronounced bioclimatic zoning and landscape-geomorphologic differentiation. Soil cover patterns (SCP) detailed morphogenetic analysis and typification is useful tool for soil forming and degradation processes quantitative evaluation, land ecological state and functional quality quantitative assessment. Quantitative analysis and functional-ecological interpretation of representative SCP spatial variability is especially important for environmentally friendly and demand-driven land-use planning and decision making. The carried out 33-years region- and local-scale researches of the wide zonal-provincial set of representative ecosystems and SCP with different types and history of land-use (forest, meadow-steppe, agricultural and recreational ones) give us the interregional multi-factorial matrix of elementary soil cover patterns (ESCP) with different land-use practices and history, soil-geomorphologic features, environmental and microclimate conditions. Succession process-based analysis of modern evolution of man-changed and natural soils and ESCP essentially increases accuracy of quantitative assessments of dominant soil forming and degradation processes rate and potential, their influence on land and soil cover quality and ecosystem services. Their results allow developing the regional and landscape adapted versions of automated land evaluation systems and land-use DSS. The validation and ranging of the limiting factors of ESCP regulation and develop¬ment, ecosystem principal services (with especial attention on greenhouse gases emissions, soil carbon dynamics and sequestration potential, biodiversity and productivity, hydrological regimes and geomorphologic stabilization), land functional qualities and agroecological state have been done for dominating and most dynamical components of ESCP regional-typological forms - with application of regional/local GIS, ESCP mapping, kriging, correlation tree models and adapted to region DSS. Key-site monitoring results and regional generalized data showed 1-1.5 % Corg lost during last 50 years period, active processes of CO2, CH4 and N2O emission (2-4-time variability in frame of one farm and of one vegetation season) and humus redistribution throw soil profile and soil cover patterns. Forest-steppe Chernozem ecosystems are usually characterized by more stable SCP than forest or steppe ones. The ratio between erosive and biological losses in humus supplies is estimated as fifty-fifty with strong spatial varia¬bility due to slope and land-use parameters. These problem agroecological situations can be essentially improved by climate-smart agriculture practice development with DSS-based landscape-adaptive land-use systems and organic farming stimulation with environmentally friendly technologies, adapted to conditions of concrete agrolandscapes in Central and Far-East Russia.

Human thermal perception related to Föhn winds due to Saharan dust outbreaks in Crete Island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, P. T.; Bleta, A. G.; Matsangouras, I. T.

2017-05-01

Crete Island is located in the southmost border of East Mediterranean basin, facing exacerbating atmospheric conditions (mainly concentrations of particulates) due to Saharan dust outbreaks. It is worth to note that these episodes are more frequent during spring and autumn, when mild biometeorological conditions become intolerable due to the synergy of the so called Föhn winds. Cretan mountains, especially Psiloritis Mt. (summit at 2456 m), are orientated perpendicularly to the southwest air mass flow, generating the Föhn winds. Propagating from the leeward of the mountains, these dry, hot winds have an effect on prevailing biometeorological conditions. While descending to the lowlands on the leeward side of the range, the wind becomes strong, gusty, and desiccating. This wind often lasts less than an hour to several days, with gradual weakening after the first or the second day. Sometimes, it stops very abruptly. In this work, the authors examined and analyzed the abrupt changes of human thermal perception within specific case studies during which Föhn winds appeared in Heraklion city at the leeward of Psiloritis Mt, associated with extreme Saharan dust episodes, observed within the period 2006-2010. In order to verify the development of Föhn winds, Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METARs, meteorological observations every half hour), were acquired from the Heraklion meteorological station installed by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). The biometeorological conditions analyzed are based on human thermal bioclimatic indices such as the Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). METAR recordings of meteorological variables, such as air temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed, and cloudiness, were used as input variables in modeling the aforementioned thermal indices, so that to interpret the grade of the thermo-physiological stress. The PET and UTCI analysis was performed by the use of the radiation and bioclimate model, "RayMan," which is well-suited to calculate radiation fluxes and human biometeorological indices. The results of the performed analysis showed even an increase of air temperature from 20 to 30 °C within 5 h, associated with a decrease in the vapor pressure from 11.5 to 9.3 hPa. In addition, the wind speed at 10 m increased from 5.1 to 20.1 m/s, 3.7 to 14.3 m/s with respect to 1.1 m height, during the events of Föhn winds. The biometeorological analysis has given evidence that slight/moderate heat stress classes of the examined thermal indices appear during Saharan dust episodes. Such conditions are uncommon at the beginning of spring season, indicating that Saharan dust episodes are not only responsible for acute health impacts but also for adverse biometeorological conditions, due to the very likely development of Föhn winds towards the wider area of Heraklion, a coastal city in the eastern Mediterranean.

Application of UTCI in China from tourism perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Quansheng; Kong, Qinqin; Xi, Jianchao; Zheng, Jingyun

2017-05-01

This study uses ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) to investigate the spatial pattern of thermal bioclimatic conditions in China. Our results show that the annual UTCI increases with decreasing latitude throughout most of China. Areas that experience "no thermal stress" are located southeast of the line formed by the Yanshan Mountains, Taihang Mountains, the southern edge of the Loess Plateau, and the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with an area of 312.83e4 km2. During spring and autumn, the UTCI distribution is similar to the annual distribution. During summer, areas with "no thermal stress" cover the largest area (563.55e4 km2), including northern and southwestern China; in contrast, during winter, areas with "no thermal stress" only occur south of the Nanling Mountains. The annual number of days with "no thermal stress" increases from north to south in central and eastern China, exceeding 200 days in the Sichuan Basin, the southeastern coastal regions and the Yungui Plateau. The minimum and maximum values occur on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (≤10 days) and the southern Yungui Plateau (>280 days). Seasonal analysis indicates that there are over 70 days with "no thermal stress" in the Sichuan Basin, the Yungui Plateau and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during spring and autumn, while there are more than 80 days in northern and southwestern China during summer and over 80 days in areas south of the Nanling Mountains during winter. The results of this study can be helpful for optimization of the tourism industry and tourism destinations development in China.

Elevation, Substrate, & Climate effects on Alpine & Sub-Alpine Plant Distribution in California & Nevada's High Mountains: Preliminary Data from the California and Nevada GLORIA Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barber, A.; Millar, C.

2014-12-01

Documenting plant response to global climate change in sensitive zones, such as the alpine, is a major goal for global change biology. Basic information on alpine plant distribution by elevation and substrate provides a basis for anticipating which species may decline in a warming climate. The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) is a worldwide effort to document vegetation changes over time in alpine settings using permanent multi-summit plots. The California/Nevada group currently monitors seven permanent GLORIA target regions, composed of 29 summits in alpine and subalpine zones. Summits range in elevations from 2918m to 4325m on substrates including dolomite, granite, quartzite, and volcanics. High-resolution plant occurrence and cover data from the upper 10 meters of each summit are presented. Plants from our target regions can be divided into three groups: summit specialists found only on the highest peaks, alpine species found predominantly within the alpine zone, and broadly distributed species found in the alpine zone and below. Rock substrate and microsite soil development have a strong influence on plant communities and species richness. We present the first set of five-year resurvey and temperature data from 18 summits. We have documented some annual variation in species presence/absence at almost all sites, but no dramatic changes in total diversity. Consistent with the expectation of rising global temperatures, our soil temperature loggers have documented temperature increases at most of our sites. These data are a baseline for assessing bioclimatic shifts and future plant composition in California and Nevada's alpine zone.

Contribution to the study of the zonal variation of the climate aridity in central northern Sahara (Algeria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benseghier-Hadjaidji, Fatiha; Talbi, Nadjib; Derridj, Arezki

2018-05-01

The environment degradation at the level of all its compartments which we notice at present, calls us to the risks that it would underestimate the climatic and consequently bioclimatic crisis there, in the North as in the South of the Mediterranean region. To protect the environment is not a luxury. In this respect, we wondered about the zonal variation of the climate aridity at the level of three bordering climatic stations: El-Oued, Touggourt and Ouargla. These are distant from 160 km on average some of the others. For that purpose, we based ourselves on the statistical tool the software "instat +" for the estimation of the ETP (PM) and afterward the determination of the pluvio-evapotranspiration "quotient P/ETP". For this analysis, the climatic data spread out over a period of 20 years. The results allowed to specify the aridity degree of the studied zone. So, they reveal a mitigation of the aridity of the climate in Touggourt and El-Oued while the hyper-aridity distinguishes well the Ouargla region. This approach contributes to a better knowledge of the dry ecosystems. This is important to indicate it to turn better in the eremologic search later.

Flora-On: Occurrence data of the vascular flora of mainland Portugal

PubMed Central

Pereira, Ana Júlia; Francisco, Ana; Porto, Miguel

2016-01-01

Abstract The Flora-On dataset currently includes 253,310 occurrence records for the class Embryopsidae (vascular plants), comprising data collated via the platform http://flora-on.pt/ relating to observation records of vascular plants across mainland Portugal. Observations are uploaded directly to the database primarily by experienced botanists and naturalists, typically on a weekly basis, and consist of geo-referenced data points for species (or infraspecific taxa) along with their date of observation and phenological state. The Flora-On project aims to compile and make publicly accessible chorological, ecological, morphological and photographic information for the entire vascular flora of Portugal. The project’s website offers powerful query and visualization capabilities, of which we highlight the probabilistic bioclimatic and phenological queries which operate based on the empirical density distributions of species in those variables. Flora-On was created and continues to be maintained by volunteers who are Associate members of Sociedade Portuguesa de Botânica (Botanical Society of Portugal). Given its focus on research-grade and current data, the Flora-On project represents a significant contribution to the knowledge of the present distribution and status of the Portuguese flora. PMID:27698587

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Alaska Species and Ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2006-01-01

Climate is the primary factor in controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges is only now beginning to be quantified. Preceding volumes of this atlas explored the continental-scale relations between climatic parameters and the distributions of woody plant species across all of the continent of North America. This volume presents similar information for important woody species, groups of species, and ecoregions in more detail for the State of Alaska. For these analyses, we constructed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America from instrumental weather records. We obtained a digital representation of the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion, either from a published source or by digitizing the published distributions ourselves. The presence or absence of each species or ecoregion was then determined for each point on the 25-kilometer grid, thus providing a basis for comparison of the climatic data with the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion. The relations between climate and these distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form.

Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape

PubMed Central

Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B; Abramson, David; Arndt, Stefan K; Briggs, Peter; Bristow, Mila; Canadell, Josep G; Cernusak, Lucas A; Eamus, Derek; Edwards, Andrew C; Evans, Bradley J; Fest, Benedikt; Goergen, Klaus; Grover, Samantha P; Hacker, Jorg; Haverd, Vanessa; Kanniah, Kasturi; Livesley, Stephen J; Lynch, Amanda; Maier, Stefan; Moore, Caitlin; Raupach, Michael; Russell-Smith, Jeremy; Scheiter, Simon; Tapper, Nigel J; Uotila, Petteri

2015-01-01

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management. PMID:25044767

Effect of asymmetrical street canyons on pedestrian thermal comfort in warm-humid climate of Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Algeciras, José; Tablada, Abel; Matzarakis, Andreas

2017-07-01

Walkability and livability in cities can be enhanced by creating comfortable environments in the streets. The profile of an urban street canyon has a substantial impact on outdoor thermal conditions at pedestrian level. This paper deals with the effect of asymmetrical street canyon profiles, common in the historical centre of Camagüey, Cuba, on outdoor thermal comfort. Temporal-spatial analyses are conducted using the Heliodon2 and the RayMan model, which enable the generation of accurate predictions about solar radiation and thermal conditions of urban spaces, respectively. On these models, urban settings are represented by asymmetrical street canyons with five different height-to-width ratios and four street axis orientations (N-S, NE-SW, E-W, SE-NW). Results are evaluated for daytime hours across the street canyon, by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET index) which allows the evaluation of the bioclimatic conditions of outdoor environments. Our findings revealed that high profiles (façades) located on the east-facing side of N-S streets, on the southeast-facing side of NE-SW streets, on the south-facing side of E-W street, and on the southwest-facing side of SE-NW streets, are recommended to reduce the total number of hours under thermal stress. E-W street canyons are the most thermally stressed ones, with extreme PET values around 36 °C. Deviating from this orientation ameliorates the heat stress with reductions of up to 4 h in summer. For all analysed E-W orientations, only about one fifth of the street can be comfortable, especially for high aspect ratios (H/W > 3). Optimal subzones in the street are next to the north side of the E-W street, northwest side of the NE-SW street, and southwest side of the SE-NW street. Besides, when the highest profile is located on the east side of N-S streets, then the subzone next to the east-facing façade is recommendable for pedestrians. The proposed urban guidelines enable urban planners to create and renovate urban spaces which are more efficient in diminishing pedestrian thermal stress.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations.

PubMed

Beever, Erik A; Ray, Chris; Mote, Philip W; Wilkening, Jennifer L

2010-01-01

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, E.A.; Chris, R.A.Y.; Mote, P.W.; Wilkening, J.L.

2010-01-01

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.

Peculiarities of high-altitude landscapes formation in the Small Caucasus mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trifonova, Tatiana

2014-05-01

Various mountain systems differ in character of landscapes and soil. Basic problem of present research: conditions and parameters determining the development of various landscapes and soils in mountain areas. Our research object is the area of Armenia where Small Caucasus, a part of Armenian upland is located. The specific character of the area is defined by the whole variety of all mountain structures like fold, block folding mountain ridges, volcanic upland, individual volcanoes, and intermountain depressions. As for the climate, the area belongs to dry subtropics. We have studied the peculiarities of high-altitude landscapes formation and mountain river basins development. We have used remote sensing data and statistic database of climatic parameters in this research. Field observations and landscape pictures analysis of space images allow distinguishing three types of mountain geosystems clearly: volcanic massifs, fold mountainous structures and closed high mountain basins - area of the lakes. The distribution of precipitation according to altitude shows some peculiarities. It has been found that due to this factor the investigated mountain area may be divided into three regions: storage (fold) mountainous area; Ararat volcanic area (southern macro exposure); closed high mountainous basin-area of the lake Sevan. The mountainous nature-climatic vertical landscapes appear to be horizontally oriented and they are more or less equilibrium (stable) geosystems, where the stable functional relationship between the landscape components is formed. Within their limits, definite bioclimatic structure of soil is developed. Along the slopes of fold mountains specific landscape shapes like litho-drainage basins are formed. They are intensively developing like relatively independent vertical geosystems. Mechanism of basin formation is versatile resulting in formation of the polychronous soil mantle structure. Landscapes and soils within the basin are of a different age, since the permanent exogenic processes favor regular rejuvenation of the slope soils. The basin structure determines the soilscape, and morphological elements of the basin are also different. The factors playing the significant part in the formation of soil-mantle composition in the basin can be identified. It is shown that landscapes formation and soil structure in mountains are controlled by two superimposed natural processes, i.e. the formation of vertical zonality and the development of river lithodrainage basins. References Trifonova T.A., 2008. River drainage basin as self-regulated natural geosistem. Izv. Russian of Academy of Sciences, Series on geography, 1: 28-36. Trifonova T.A., 2005. Development of basin approach in pedological and ecological studies. Eurasian Soil Science, 9: 931-937

Baseline map of organic carbon in Australian soil to support national carbon accounting and monitoring under climate change

PubMed Central

Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A; Webster, Richard; Bui, Elisabeth N; Baldock, Jeff A

2014-01-01

We can effectively monitor soil condition—and develop sound policies to offset the emissions of greenhouse gases—only with accurate data from which to define baselines. Currently, estimates of soil organic C for countries or continents are either unavailable or largely uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of organic C in the soil of Australia. We assembled and harmonized data from several sources to produce the most comprehensive set of data on the current stock of organic C in soil of the continent. Using them, we have produced a fine spatial resolution baseline map of organic C at the continental scale. We describe how we made it by combining the bootstrap, a decision tree with piecewise regression on environmental variables and geostatistical modelling of residuals. Values of stock were predicted at the nodes of a 3-arc-sec (approximately 90 m) grid and mapped together with their uncertainties. We then calculated baselines of soil organic C storage over the whole of Australia, its states and territories, and regions that define bioclimatic zones, vegetation classes and land use. The average amount of organic C in Australian topsoil is estimated to be 29.7 t ha−1 with 95% confidence limits of 22.6 and 37.9 t ha−1. The total stock of organic C in the 0–30 cm layer of soil for the continent is 24.97 Gt with 95% confidence limits of 19.04 and 31.83 Gt. This represents approximately 3.5% of the total stock in the upper 30 cm of soil worldwide. Australia occupies 5.2% of the global land area, so the total organic C stock of Australian soil makes an important contribution to the global carbon cycle, and it provides a significant potential for sequestration. As the most reliable approximation of the stock of organic C in Australian soil in 2010, our estimates have important applications. They could support Australia's National Carbon Accounting System, help guide the formulation of policy around carbon offset schemes, improve Australia's carbon balances, serve to direct future sampling for inventory, guide the design of monitoring networks and provide a benchmark against which to assess the impact of changes in land cover, land management and climate on the stock of C in Australia. In this way, these estimates would help us to develop strategies to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. PMID:24599716

Baseline map of organic carbon in Australian soil to support national carbon accounting and monitoring under climate change.

PubMed

Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A; Webster, Richard; Bui, Elisabeth N; Baldock, Jeff A

2014-09-01

We can effectively monitor soil condition-and develop sound policies to offset the emissions of greenhouse gases-only with accurate data from which to define baselines. Currently, estimates of soil organic C for countries or continents are either unavailable or largely uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of organic C in the soil of Australia. We assembled and harmonized data from several sources to produce the most comprehensive set of data on the current stock of organic C in soil of the continent. Using them, we have produced a fine spatial resolution baseline map of organic C at the continental scale. We describe how we made it by combining the bootstrap, a decision tree with piecewise regression on environmental variables and geostatistical modelling of residuals. Values of stock were predicted at the nodes of a 3-arc-sec (approximately 90 m) grid and mapped together with their uncertainties. We then calculated baselines of soil organic C storage over the whole of Australia, its states and territories, and regions that define bioclimatic zones, vegetation classes and land use. The average amount of organic C in Australian topsoil is estimated to be 29.7 t ha(-1) with 95% confidence limits of 22.6 and 37.9 t ha(-1) . The total stock of organic C in the 0-30 cm layer of soil for the continent is 24.97 Gt with 95% confidence limits of 19.04 and 31.83 Gt. This represents approximately 3.5% of the total stock in the upper 30 cm of soil worldwide. Australia occupies 5.2% of the global land area, so the total organic C stock of Australian soil makes an important contribution to the global carbon cycle, and it provides a significant potential for sequestration. As the most reliable approximation of the stock of organic C in Australian soil in 2010, our estimates have important applications. They could support Australia's National Carbon Accounting System, help guide the formulation of policy around carbon offset schemes, improve Australia's carbon balances, serve to direct future sampling for inventory, guide the design of monitoring networks and provide a benchmark against which to assess the impact of changes in land cover, land management and climate on the stock of C in Australia. In this way, these estimates would help us to develop strategies to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mammalian niche conservation through deep time.

PubMed

DeSantis, Larisa R G; Beavins Tracy, Rachel A; Koontz, Cassandra S; Roseberry, John C; Velasco, Matthew C

2012-01-01

Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas) are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ~2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of terminal Pleistocene "extinction prone" families, and provide valuable insights to understanding mammalian responses to current climate change.

Mammalian Niche Conservation through Deep Time

PubMed Central

DeSantis, Larisa R. G.; Beavins Tracy, Rachel A.; Koontz, Cassandra S.; Roseberry, John C.; Velasco, Matthew C.

2012-01-01

Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas) are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ∼2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of terminal Pleistocene “extinction prone” families, and provide valuable insights to understanding mammalian responses to current climate change. PMID:22539985

Environmental niche divergence among three dune shrub sister species with parapatric distributions.

PubMed

Chozas, Sergio; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Correia, Otília; Bonal, Raúl; Hortal, Joaquín

2017-05-01

The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus , which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener's index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling. The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides-spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene fine-textured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii , the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations. : The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary processes driving the evolution of species adaptations and how they determine their current geographical ranges. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

PubMed Central

Garcia, Raquel A; Araújo, Miguel B; Burgess, Neil D; Foden, Wendy B; Gutsche, Alexander; Rahbek, Carsten; Cabeza, Mar

2014-01-01

Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities. Results In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains. Main conclusions We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities. PMID:25505356

The impact of acclimatization on thermophysiological strain for contrasting regional climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Freitas, C. R.; Grigorieva, E. A.

2014-12-01

During acclimatization to heat and cold, the body experiences additional thermally induced physiological strain. The first signs show up in the respiratory organs because respiration is a continuous heat exchange process in which the body is in closest contact with the ambient air. There are no behavioral or other adjustments to prevent the ambient air from entering into the body's core area through the respiratory tract. The Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI) describes the acclimatization thermal loading (ATL) on respiratory organs until full adaptation is achieved. The aim here is to further assess the ATSI scheme using a range of actual but contrasting bioclimatic conditions. To simulate ATL, scenarios of the consequences of acclimatization due to movement to or from five contrasting climates are used. The results show that adjusting to cold comes with greater physiological strain than adjusting to heat, the biggest impact occurring for a change of location from hot-humid to cold-dry climatic conditions. The approach can be used to assess risks due to increases in short-term thermal variability in weather conditions such as encountered during heat waves and cold snaps. The information could also be useful for assessing the need for public health services and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts.

Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape.

PubMed

Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B; Abramson, David; Arndt, Stefan K; Briggs, Peter; Bristow, Mila; Canadell, Josep G; Cernusak, Lucas A; Eamus, Derek; Edwards, Andrew C; Evans, Bradley J; Fest, Benedikt; Goergen, Klaus; Grover, Samantha P; Hacker, Jorg; Haverd, Vanessa; Kanniah, Kasturi; Livesley, Stephen J; Lynch, Amanda; Maier, Stefan; Moore, Caitlin; Raupach, Michael; Russell-Smith, Jeremy; Scheiter, Simon; Tapper, Nigel J; Uotila, Petteri

2015-01-01

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Flea species infesting dogs in Spain: updated spatial and seasonal distribution patterns.

PubMed

Gálvez, R; Montoya, A; Checa, R; Martín, O; Marino, V; Miró, G

2017-03-01

This entomological survey examines the spatial and seasonal distribution patterns of flea species infesting dogs in Spain. Bioclimatic zones covering broad climate and vegetation ranges were surveyed according to size. In a cross-sectional spatial survey carried out from late May 2013 to mid-July 2015, 1084 dogs from 42 different locations were examined. A total of 3032 fleas were collected and identified as belonging to the following species: Ctenocephalides felis (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) (81.7%, 2476 fleas); Ctenocephalides canis (11.4%, 347 fleas); Pulex irritans (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) (6.9%, 208 fleas), and Echidnophaga gallinacea (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) (0.03%, one flea). Variables observed to have effects on flea abundance were animal weight, sex, length of hair and habitat. In the seasonal survey conducted from June 2014 to June 2015, 1014 fleas were collected from 239 dogs at 30 veterinary practices across Spain. Peaks in C. felis abundance were observed in early summer and late autumn, whereas high numbers of P. irritans and C. canis were recorded in autumn. Numbers of fleas detected in winter were low overall. Based on these findings, the present study updates the spatial and seasonal distributions of flea species in Spain and assesses the impacts of host and habitat variables on flea infestation. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

Ecogeography and utility to plant breeding of the crop wild relatives of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.)

PubMed Central

Kantar, Michael B.; Sosa, Chrystian C.; Khoury, Colin K.; Castañeda-Álvarez, Nora P.; Achicanoy, Harold A.; Bernau, Vivian; Kane, Nolan C.; Marek, Laura; Seiler, Gerald; Rieseberg, Loren H.

2015-01-01

Crop wild relatives (CWR) are a rich source of genetic diversity for crop improvement. Combining ecogeographic and phylogenetic techniques can inform both conservation and breeding. Geographic occurrence, bioclimatic, and biophysical data were used to predict species distributions, range overlap and niche occupancy in 36 taxa closely related to sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). Taxa lacking comprehensive ex situ conservation were identified. The predicted distributions for 36 Helianthus taxa identified substantial range overlap, range asymmetry and niche conservatism. Specific taxa (e.g., Helianthus deblis Nutt., Helianthus anomalus Blake, and Helianthus divaricatus L.) were identified as targets for traits of interest, particularly for abiotic stress tolerance, and adaptation to extreme soil properties. The combination of techniques demonstrates the potential for publicly available ecogeographic and phylogenetic data to facilitate the identification of possible sources of abiotic stress traits for plant breeding programs. Much of the primary genepool (wild H. annuus) occurs in extreme environments indicating that introgression of targeted traits may be relatively straightforward. Sister taxa in Helianthus have greater range overlap than more distantly related taxa within the genus. This adds to a growing body of literature suggesting that in plants (unlike some animal groups), geographic isolation may not be necessary for speciation. PMID:26500675

Ecogeography and utility to plant breeding of the crop wild relatives of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.).

PubMed

Kantar, Michael B; Sosa, Chrystian C; Khoury, Colin K; Castañeda-Álvarez, Nora P; Achicanoy, Harold A; Bernau, Vivian; Kane, Nolan C; Marek, Laura; Seiler, Gerald; Rieseberg, Loren H

2015-01-01

Crop wild relatives (CWR) are a rich source of genetic diversity for crop improvement. Combining ecogeographic and phylogenetic techniques can inform both conservation and breeding. Geographic occurrence, bioclimatic, and biophysical data were used to predict species distributions, range overlap and niche occupancy in 36 taxa closely related to sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). Taxa lacking comprehensive ex situ conservation were identified. The predicted distributions for 36 Helianthus taxa identified substantial range overlap, range asymmetry and niche conservatism. Specific taxa (e.g., Helianthus deblis Nutt., Helianthus anomalus Blake, and Helianthus divaricatus L.) were identified as targets for traits of interest, particularly for abiotic stress tolerance, and adaptation to extreme soil properties. The combination of techniques demonstrates the potential for publicly available ecogeographic and phylogenetic data to facilitate the identification of possible sources of abiotic stress traits for plant breeding programs. Much of the primary genepool (wild H. annuus) occurs in extreme environments indicating that introgression of targeted traits may be relatively straightforward. Sister taxa in Helianthus have greater range overlap than more distantly related taxa within the genus. This adds to a growing body of literature suggesting that in plants (unlike some animal groups), geographic isolation may not be necessary for speciation.

Genetic characterization of Anaplasma marginale strains from Tunisia using single and multiple gene typing reveals novel variants with an extensive genetic diversity.

PubMed

Ben Said, Mourad; Ben Asker, Alaa; Belkahia, Hanène; Ghribi, Raoua; Selmi, Rachid; Messadi, Lilia

2018-05-12

Anaplasma marginale, which is responsible for bovine anaplasmosis in tropical and subtropical regions, is a tick-borne obligatory intraerythrocytic bacterium of cattle and wild ruminants. In Tunisia, information about the genetic diversity and the phylogeny of A. marginale strains are limited to the msp4 gene analysis. The purpose of this study is to investigate A. marginale isolates infecting 16 cattle located in different bioclimatic areas of northern Tunisia with single gene analysis and multilocus sequence typing methods on the basis of seven partial genes (dnaA, ftsZ, groEL, lipA, secY, recA and sucB). The single gene analysis confirmed the presence of different and novel heterogenic A. marginale strains infecting cattle from the north of Tunisia. The concatenated sequence analysis showed a phylogeographical resolution at the global level and that most of the Tunisian sequence types (STs) formed a separate cluster from a South African isolate and from all New World isolates and strains. By combining the characteristics of each single locus with those of the multi-loci scheme, these results provide a more detailed understanding on the diversity and the evolution of Tunisian A. marginale strains. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Detection of relapsing fever Borrelia spp., Bartonella spp. and Anaplasmataceae bacteria in argasid ticks in Algeria.

PubMed

Lafri, Ismail; El Hamzaoui, Basma; Bitam, Idir; Leulmi, Hamza; Lalout, Reda; Mediannikov, Oleg; Chergui, Mohamed; Karakellah, Mohamed; Raoult, Didier; Parola, Philippe

2017-11-01

Argasid ticks (soft ticks) are blood-feeding arthropods that can parasitize rodents, birds, humans, livestock and companion animals. Ticks of the Ornithodoros genus are known to be vectors of relapsing fever borreliosis in humans. In Algeria, little is known about relapsing fever borreliosis and other bacterial pathogens transmitted by argasid ticks. Between May 2013 and October 2015, we investigated the presence of soft ticks in 20 rodent burrows, 10 yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) nests and animal shelters in six locations in two different bioclimatic zones in Algeria. Six species of argasid ticks were identified morphologically and through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The presence and prevalence of Borrelia spp., Bartonella spp., Rickettsia spp. and Anaplasmataceae was assessed by qPCR template assays in each specimen. All qPCR-positive samples were confirmed by standard PCR, followed by sequencing the amplified fragments. Two Borrelia species were identified: Borrelia hispanica in Ornithodoros occidentalis in Mostaganem, and Borrelia cf. turicatae in Carios capensis in Algiers. One new Bartonella genotype and one new Anaplasmataceae genotype were also identified in Argas persicus. The present study highlights the presence of relapsing fever borreliosis agents, although this disease is rarely diagnosed in Algeria. Other bacteria of unknown pathogenicity detected in argasid ticks which may bite humans deserve further investigation.

Late-Holocene vegetation dynamics in response to a changing climate and anthropogenic influences - Insights from stratigraphic records and subfossil trees from southeast Lithuania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edvardsson, Johannes; Stančikaitė, Miglė; Miras, Yannick; Corona, Christophe; Gryguc, Gražyna; Gedminienė, Laura; Mažeika, Jonas; Stoffel, Markus

2018-04-01

To increase our understanding of long-term climate dynamics and its effects on different ecosystems, palaeoclimatic and long-term botanical reconstructions need to be improved, in particular in underutilized geographical regions. In this study, vegetation, (hydro)climate, and land-use changes were documented at two southeast Lithuanian peatland complexes - Čepkeliai and Rieznyčia - for the Late-Holocene period. The documentation was based on a combination of pollen, plant macrofossils, peat stratigraphic records, and subfossil trees. Our results cover the last two millennia and reveal the existence of moist conditions in Southern Lithuania between 300 and 500 CE and from 950 to 1850 CE. Conversely, changes towards warmer and/or dryer conditions have been recorded in 100, 600, and 750 CE, and since the 1850s. Significant differences with other Baltic proxies prevent deriving a complete and precise long-term reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variability at the regional scale. Yet, our results provide an important cornerstone for an improved understanding of regional climate change, i.e. in a region for which only (i) few detailed palaeobotanical studies exist and which has, in addition, been considered as (ii) an ecologically sensitive region at the interface between the temperate and boreal bioclimatic zones.

Social selection parapatry in Afrotropical sunbirds.

PubMed

McEntee, Jay P; Peñalba, Joshua V; Werema, Chacha; Mulungu, Elia; Mbilinyi, Maneno; Moyer, David; Hansen, Louis; Fjeldså, Jon; Bowie, Rauri C K

2016-06-01

The extent of range overlap of incipient and recent species depends on the type and magnitude of phenotypic divergence that separates them, and the consequences of phenotypic divergence on their interactions. Signal divergence by social selection likely initiates many speciation events, but may yield niche-conserved lineages predisposed to limit each others' ranges via ecological competition. Here, we examine this neglected aspect of social selection speciation theory in relation to the discovery of a nonecotonal species border between sunbirds. We find that Nectarinia moreaui and Nectarinia fuelleborni meet in a ∼6 km wide contact zone, as estimated by molecular cline analysis. These species exploit similar bioclimatic niches, but sing highly divergent learned songs, consistent with divergence by social selection. Cline analyses suggest that within-species stabilizing social selection on song-learning predispositions maintains species differences in song despite both hybridization and cultural transmission. We conclude that ecological competition between moreaui and fuelleborni contributes to the stabilization of the species border, but that ecological competition acts in conjunction with reproductive interference. The evolutionary maintenance of learned song differences in a hybrid zone recommend this study system for future studies on the mechanisms of learned song divergence and its role in speciation. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

[Hemoparasites of bats in Madagascar].

PubMed

Raharimanga, V; Ariey, F; Cardiff, S G; Goodman, S M; Tall, A; Rousset, D; Robert, V

2003-01-01

This study aims to evaluate the prevalence and density of haemoparasites in wild malagasy bats. Among the 440 bats, belonging to 14 species sampled in 5 localities in different bio-climatic zones of the island, 93 (21%) showed at least 1 haemoparasite with, by order of frequency, Haemoproteidae (15.7% of 440 bats), microfilariae (7.0%) and Trypanosoma (0.7%). Among these 93 bats, 92 (99%) belonged to the family Vespertilionidae. Four bat species, all endemic to the Madagascar region (Madagascar and Comoros), were found to harbour parasites: Miniopterus manavi with Haemoproteidae (38% of 129 individuals), microfilariae (23%) and Trypanosoma (2%); Myotis goudoti with Haemoproteidae (24% of 68 individuals) and microfilariae (1%); Miniopterus gleni with Haemoproteidae (23% of 13 individuals); and Triaenops furculus with Haemoproteidae (4% of 28 individuals). The sex of bats was not linked to parasite prevalence. Within Miniopterus manavi, those individuals with greater weight also had a higher prevalence of microfilariae; and within the individuals harbouring microfilariae the greatest weights corresponded to the highest density of microfilariae. Ten bat species (with 202 individuals examined) were negative for any haemoparasite. This study is the first to provide evidence of haemoparasites in Malagasy bats; it provides interesting insights, especially concerning the parasite distribution per bat species and families, the pathogenicity of this type of parasitism and the parasite transmission by arthropod vectors.

Bioacoustic and multi-locus DNA data of Ninox owls support high incidence of extinction and recolonisation on small, low-lying islands across Wallacea.

PubMed

Gwee, Chyi Yin; Christidis, Les; Eaton, James A; Norman, Janette A; Trainor, Colin R; Verbelen, Philippe; Rheindt, Frank E

2017-04-01

Known for their rich biodiversity and high level of endemism, the islands of Wallacea serve as natural laboratories for the study of spatio-temporal evolution and patterns of species diversification. Our study focuses on the owl genus Ninox, particularly the Southern Boobook (N. novaeseelandiae) and Moluccan Boobook (N. squamipila) complexes, which are widely distributed across Australasia. We conducted bioacoustic and multi-locus DNA analyses of 24 Ninox owl taxa to evaluate relationships and levels of divergence within the two complexes and ultimately assess the relationship between patterns of taxonomic differentiation and bioclimatic factors. We found that taxa that are vocally and/or genetically distinct from populations on the Australian mainland are found on islands that are significantly larger and higher in altitude than taxa that are vocally and/or genetically indistinct from populations on the Australian mainland. This pattern suggests that taxa occurring on small, low-lying Wallacean islands are likely to be recent colonisers that have dispersed from Australia. Overall, our observations demonstrate that the genus Ninox is likely to have colonised the Wallacean region multiple times as small, low-lying islands undergo frequent extinction, whereas populations on large and high-altitude islands are more resilient. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land: The contribution of agroforestry to global and national carbon budgets.

PubMed

Zomer, Robert J; Neufeldt, Henry; Xu, Jianchu; Ahrends, Antje; Bossio, Deborah; Trabucco, Antonio; van Noordwijk, Meine; Wang, Mingcheng

2016-07-20

Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural land make an important contribution to climate change mitigation, but are not systematically accounted for in either global carbon budgets or national carbon accounting. This paper assesses the role of trees on agricultural land and their significance for carbon sequestration at a global level, along with recent change trends. Remote sensing data show that in 2010, 43% of all agricultural land globally had at least 10% tree cover and that this has increased by 2% over the previous ten years. Combining geographically and bioclimatically stratified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 default estimates of carbon storage with this tree cover analysis, we estimated 45.3 PgC on agricultural land globally, with trees contributing >75%. Between 2000 and 2010 tree cover increased by 3.7%, resulting in an increase of >2 PgC (or 4.6%) of biomass carbon. On average, globally, biomass carbon increased from 20.4 to 21.4 tC ha(-1). Regional and country-level variation in stocks and trends were mapped and tabulated globally, and for all countries. Brazil, Indonesia, China and India had the largest increases in biomass carbon stored on agricultural land, while Argentina, Myanmar, and Sierra Leone had the largest decreases.

Topology optimization aided structural design: Interpretation, computational aspects and 3D printing.

PubMed

Kazakis, Georgios; Kanellopoulos, Ioannis; Sotiropoulos, Stefanos; Lagaros, Nikos D

2017-10-01

Construction industry has a major impact on the environment that we spend most of our life. Therefore, it is important that the outcome of architectural intuition performs well and complies with the design requirements. Architects usually describe as "optimal design" their choice among a rather limited set of design alternatives, dictated by their experience and intuition. However, modern design of structures requires accounting for a great number of criteria derived from multiple disciplines, often of conflicting nature. Such criteria derived from structural engineering, eco-design, bioclimatic and acoustic performance. The resulting vast number of alternatives enhances the need for computer-aided architecture in order to increase the possibility of arriving at a more preferable solution. Therefore, the incorporation of smart, automatic tools in the design process, able to further guide designer's intuition becomes even more indispensable. The principal aim of this study is to present possibilities to integrate automatic computational techniques related to topology optimization in the phase of intuition of civil structures as part of computer aided architectural design. In this direction, different aspects of a new computer aided architectural era related to the interpretation of the optimized designs, difficulties resulted from the increased computational effort and 3D printing capabilities are covered here in.

Imaging spectroscopy studies of Hawaiian ecosystems, carbon properties, and disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asner, Gregory P.; Vitousek, Peter M.

2005-01-01

The Hawaiian Islands contain more than two-thirds of the global life zones delineated by Holdridge1. We used high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) spectral mixture analysis to analyze the lateral distribution of plant tissues and bare substrate across bioclimatic gradients and ecological life zones in Hawai'i. Unique quantities of photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic vegetation (PV, NPV) and bare substrate identified fundamental differences in ecosystem structure across life zones. There was a nearly 20-fold increase in PV fractional cover with a 10-fold increase in mean annual precipitation (< 250 to 2000 mm yr-1). NPV fractional cover remained nearly constant at ~50% in ecosystems with a mean annual precipitation < 1500 mm yr-1. Thereafter, NPV steadily declined to a minimum of ~ 20% at 3000 mm yr-1 of rainfall. Bare substrate fractions were highest (~50%) at precipitation levels < 750 mm yr-1, then declined to < 20% in the 750-1000 mm yr-1 zones. The combination of low bare substrate and high NPV cover in the 750-1000 mm yr-1 rainfall zones identified these areas as high fire risk. The results verify the applicability of SWIR imaging spectroscopy for ecosystem research on a global scale. They also set the framework for continued studies of ecosystem structure, function and invasive species throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago.

Fundamental niche prediction of the pathogenic yeasts Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in Europe.

PubMed

Cogliati, Massimo; Puccianti, Erika; Montagna, Maria T; De Donno, Antonella; Susever, Serdar; Ergin, Cagri; Velegraki, Aristea; Ellabib, Mohamed S; Nardoni, Simona; Macci, Cristina; Trovato, Laura; Dipineto, Ludovico; Rickerts, Volker; Akcaglar, Sevim; Mlinaric-Missoni, Emilija; Bertout, Sebastien; Vencà, Ana C F; Sampaio, Ana C; Criseo, Giuseppe; Ranque, Stéphane; Çerikçioğlu, Nilgün; Marchese, Anna; Vezzulli, Luigi; Ilkit, Macit; Desnos-Ollivier, Marie; Pasquale, Vincenzo; Polacheck, Itzhack; Scopa, Antonio; Meyer, Wieland; Ferreira-Paim, Kennio; Hagen, Ferry; Boekhout, Teun; Dromer, Françoise; Varma, Ashok; Kwon-Chung, Kyung J; Inácio, Joäo; Colom, Maria F

2017-10-01

Fundamental niche prediction of Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in Europe is an important tool to understand where these pathogenic yeasts have a high probability to survive in the environment and therefore to identify the areas with high risk of infection. In this study, occurrence data for C. neoformans and C. gattii were compared by MaxEnt software with several bioclimatic conditions as well as with soil characteristics and land use. The results showed that C. gattii distribution can be predicted with high probability along the Mediterranean coast. The analysis of variables showed that its distribution is limited by low temperatures during the coldest season, and by heavy precipitations in the driest season. C. neoformans var. grubii is able to colonize the same areas of C. gattii but is more tolerant to cold winter temperatures and summer precipitations. In contrast, the C. neoformans var. neoformans map was completely different. The best conditions for its survival were displayed in sub-continental areas and not along the Mediterranean coasts. In conclusion, we produced for the first time detailed prediction maps of the species and varieties of the C. neoformans and C. gattii species complex in Europe and Mediterranean area. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of acclimatization on thermophysiological strain for contrasting regional climates.

PubMed

de Freitas, C R; Grigorieva, E A

2014-12-01

During acclimatization to heat and cold, the body experiences additional thermally induced physiological strain. The first signs show up in the respiratory organs because respiration is a continuous heat exchange process in which the body is in closest contact with the ambient air. There are no behavioral or other adjustments to prevent the ambient air from entering into the body's core area through the respiratory tract. The Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI) describes the acclimatization thermal loading (ATL) on respiratory organs until full adaptation is achieved. The aim here is to further assess the ATSI scheme using a range of actual but contrasting bioclimatic conditions. To simulate ATL, scenarios of the consequences of acclimatization due to movement to or from five contrasting climates are used. The results show that adjusting to cold comes with greater physiological strain than adjusting to heat, the biggest impact occurring for a change of location from hot-humid to cold-dry climatic conditions. The approach can be used to assess risks due to increases in short-term thermal variability in weather conditions such as encountered during heat waves and cold snaps. The information could also be useful for assessing the need for public health services and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts.

Variation in trait trade-offs allows differentiation among predefined plant functional types: implications for predictive ecology.

PubMed

Verheijen, Lieneke M; Aerts, Rien; Bönisch, Gerhard; Kattge, Jens; Van Bodegom, Peter M

2016-01-01

Plant functional types (PFTs) aggregate the variety of plant species into a small number of functionally different classes. We examined to what extent plant traits, which reflect species' functional adaptations, can capture functional differences between predefined PFTs and which traits optimally describe these differences. We applied Gaussian kernel density estimation to determine probability density functions for individual PFTs in an n-dimensional trait space and compared predicted PFTs with observed PFTs. All possible combinations of 1-6 traits from a database with 18 different traits (total of 18 287 species) were tested. A variety of trait sets had approximately similar performance, and 4-5 traits were sufficient to classify up to 85% of the species into PFTs correctly, whereas this was 80% for a bioclimatically defined tree PFT classification. Well-performing trait sets included combinations of correlated traits that are considered functionally redundant within a single plant strategy. This analysis quantitatively demonstrates how structural differences between PFTs are reflected in functional differences described by particular traits. Differentiation between PFTs is possible despite large overlap in plant strategies and traits, showing that PFTs are differently positioned in multidimensional trait space. This study therefore provides the foundation for important applications for predictive ecology. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Decadal changes in tundra land cover on Yamal Peninsula, Northwest Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, B. C.; Kumpula, T.; Macias-Fauria, M.

2017-12-01

The Yamal-Nenets Okrug in Russia has experienced significant changes in land use and climate in recent decades. Average year-round air temperatures have increased ca. 2°C since the 1970's, with much - but not all - of the warming taking place in winter. In association with ongoing summer warming, the annual growth of erect deciduous shrubs has been accelerating while growing season seasonality has diminished, characterized by shifts in the spatial patterns of key phenological parameters. We prepared LANDSAT-derived land cover classifications for 1988 and 2014 using change detection analysis, supported by extensive ground truthing bolstered with data from Very High-Resolution (VHR) imagery (e.g. Quickbird-2, Worldview-2/3). Research was conducted within summer reindeer pastures utilized by the Yarsalinksi sovhoz, whose animals are collectively owned, as well as many privately-owned herds. The area represents bioclimatic Subzone D of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map and covers about 8500 km2. This is a key subzone for several reasons: (1) it includes Bovanenkovo, the first and largest gas deposit on Yamal to be developed; (2) it is a zone of extremely active periglacial processes (e.g. active layer detachment slides, lake drainage and recent methane-mediated craters); and (3) it is characterized by steadily increasing growth of tall willow shrubs (Salix spp.), which comprise an important source of fodder by reindeer migrating through the area in summer. These results are unique as our dataset: (1) covers sizable inland regions lying entirely within the Russian tundra zone; (2) derives from extensive ground truthing; and (3) treats all plant taxonomic groups (vascular, bryophytes, lichens) at the plot scale. Here we present the first such classifications, based on LANDSAT images from 1988 and 2014. We identify 16 classes ranging from bare ground and drained lakes, anthropogenic disturbances, through several wetland types, to various dwarf and erect tundra shrub habitats. Given that Yamal is such a highly dynamic periglacial environment, our change detection results over a 36-year period strongly indicate that several processes, such as drying tundra lakes, landslides, expanding gas development, will continue to influence the changes in landscape-level vegetation and permafrost substrate processes.

Holocene Vegetation and Fire Dynamics for Ecosystem Management in the Spruce-Moss Domain in Northwestern Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andy, H.; Blarquez, O.; Grondin, P.

2017-12-01

Facing the depletion of the wood resource in Québec and possible threats such as climate change, actors of the forest sector urge the need for a scientific frame to the forest management. A set of reference conditions has been developed for defining management targets that will help to keep forests within their natural range of variability according to the preindustrial period (XIX-XX centuries). Those reference conditions are based on the stands age-class distribution under a given fire regime that enable to define the percentage of old-growth forest (>100 years) to be maintained in a landscape. For the western spruce-moss domain in Québec, the fire return interval (FRI) is equal to 150 years resulting in a target of 48% of old-growth forests. Yet, this target supposes that the environment and the ecosystem processes are homogeneous for an entire bioclimatic domain of 175 000 km2. By using a Redundancy Analysis (RDA) on modern inventories data on natural and human disturbances; climate and physical variables and forest composition, we were able to distinguish 5 main zones where interactions between stands and their environment are homogeneous and where local management targets could be developed. We then used 10 published sedimentary pollens and charcoal series in order to reconstruct the holocene fire and vegetation dynamics for those zones. Vegetation deduced from the analysis of the pollen diagrams showed that the long-term vegetation dynamics are zone specific indicating that the modern forest composition is a result of the Holocene trajectories occurring within each zone. Charcoals series were statistically analyzed for past fire detection and long-term FRI reconstruction. They suggest that for the entire territory the holocene FRI range from 174 to 265 years resulting in old-growth forests percentage within 44 and 65% depending on the zone. Hence, we conclude that current management targets should be revised to fit more with local forests ecosystem variability at the landscape scale and that reference condition should be supplemented with data on the long-term fire dynamics and forest composition variability.

Fire regimes of quaking aspen in the Mountain West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas J.; Baker, William L.; Rogers, Paul C.; Kulakowski, Dominik

2013-01-01

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) is the most widespread tree species in North America, and it is found throughout much of the Mountain West (MW) across a broad range of bioclimatic regions. Aspen typically regenerates asexually and prolifically after fire, and due to its seral status in many western conifer forests, aspen is often considered dependent upon disturbance for persistence. In many landscapes, historical evidence for post-fire aspen establishment is clear, and following extended fire-free periods senescing or declining aspen overstories sometimes lack adequate regeneration and are succeeding to conifers. However, aspen also forms relatively stable stands that contain little or no evidence of historical fire. In fact, aspen woodlands range from highly fire-dependent, seral communities to relatively stable, self-replacing, non-seral communities that do not require fire for persistence. Given the broad geographic distribution of aspen, fire regimes in these forests likely co-vary spatially with changing community composition, landscape setting, and climate, and temporally with land use and climate – but relatively few studies have explicitly focused on these important spatiotemporal variations. Here we reviewed the literature to summarize aspen fire regimes in the western US and highlight knowledge gaps. We found that only about one-fourth of the 46 research papers assessed for this review could be considered fire history studies (in which mean fire intervals were calculated), and all but one of these were based primarily on data from fire-scarred conifers. Nearly half of the studies reported at least some evidence of persistent aspen in the absence of fire. We also found that large portions of the MW have had little or no aspen fire history research. As a result of this review, we put forth a classification framework for aspen that is defined by key fire regime parameters (fire severity and probability), and that reflects underlying biophysical settings and correlated aspen functional types. We propose the following aspen fire regime types: (1) fire-independent, stable aspen; (2) fire-influenced, stable aspen; (3) fire-dependent, seral, conifer-aspen mix; (4) fire-dependent, seral, montane aspen-conifer; and (5) fire-dependent, seral, subalpine aspen-conifer. Closing research gaps and validating our proposed aspen fire regime classification will likely require additional site-specific research, enhanced dendrochronology techniques, charcoal and pollen record analysis, spatially-explicit modeling, and other techniques. We hope to encourage development of site-appropriate disturbance ecology characterizations, in order to aid efforts to manage and restore aspen communities and to diagnose key factors contributing to changes in aspen.

Future Heat Waves in Paris Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulant, A.; Lemonsu, A.; Somot, S.; Masson, V.

2010-12-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, firstly because they concentrate the majority of the population and, secondly because the heat island that characterizes the urban climate exacerbates heat wave effects. This work is part of the interdisciplinary VURCA project (Vulnerability of cities to heat waves), which deals with the evolution of heat wave events in the context of global warming, urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1950-2009) and their evolution in an enhanced greenhouse gazes future climate (2010-2100). We used daily observations of temperature from several stations covering Paris metropolitan area and climate projections following three different IPCC-SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and issued from several ENSEMBLES regional climate models. The heat wave definition is based on the indexes of the operational French warning system. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a heat wave peak, when the temperatures exceed the value of the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak, for which the temperatures are not durably smaller than the 99.9th percentile value minus 2 °C. The 99.9th percentile threshold is inferred from quantile-quantile plots produced for each climate model in comparison with observations for the reference period 1950-2000. Heat waves have been extracted within observations and 12 climatic simulations. The number of heat wave events and cumulated HW days per year have been calculated, the maximum being seven heat waves cumulating more than 60 HW days in one year in the case of the A2 scenario and until 50 days in the case of the more moderate A1B scenario. From 2050, the occurrence of three or four HW events per year is becoming the norm all scenarios taken together. The evolution of heat wave features has been analysed, highlighting the large variability of the climatic simulations, but also an overall trend to an increase in frequency and duration but less significantly in intensity. Further work will be carried out in order to assess the sensitivity of the Paris urban climate to different future heat wave events. Synthetic HW events will be built from future HW features as duration and intensity, and will be simulated using a urban-weather model. Then, the impacts in terms of energy consumption and bioclimatic comfort will be analysed and adaptation strategies will be proposed.

Spatial and temporal predictions of agricultural land prices using DSM techniques.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carré, F.; Grandgirard, D.; Diafas, I.; Reuter, H. I.; Julien, V.; Lemercier, B.

2009-04-01

Agricultural land prices highly impacts land accessibility to farmers and by consequence the evolution of agricultural landscapes (crop changes, land conversion to urban infrastructures…) which can turn to irreversible soil degradation. The economic value of agricultural land has been studied spatially, in every one of the 374 French Agricultural Counties, and temporally- from 1995 to 2007, by using data of the SAFER Institute. To this aim, agricultural land price was considered as a digital soil property. The spatial and temporal predictions were done using Digital Soil Mapping techniques combined with tools mainly used for studying temporal financial behaviors. For making both predictions, a first classification of the Agricultural Counties was done for the 1995-2006 periods (2007 was excluded and served as the date of prediction) using a fuzzy k-means clustering. The Agricultural Counties were then aggregated according to land price at the different times. The clustering allows for characterizing the counties by their memberships to each class centroid. The memberships were used for the spatial prediction, whereas the centroids were used for the temporal prediction. For the spatial prediction, from the 374 Agricultural counties, three fourths were used for modeling and one fourth for validating. Random sampling was done by class to ensure that all classes are represented by at least one county in the modeling and validation datasets. The prediction was done for each class by testing the relationships between the memberships and the following factors: (i) soil variable (organic matter from the French BDAT database), (ii) soil covariates (land use classes from CORINE LANDCOVER, bioclimatic zones from the WorldClim Database, landform attributes and landform classes from the SRTM, major roads and hydrographic densities from EUROSTAT, average field sizes estimated by automatic classification of remote sensed images) and (iii) socio-economic factors (population density, gross domestic product and its combination with the population density obtained from EUROSTAT). Linear (Generalized Linear Models) and non-linear models (neural network) were used for building the relationships. For the validation, the relationships were applied to the validation datasets. The RMSE and the coefficient of determination (from a linear regression) between predicted and actual memberships, and the contingency table between the predicted and actual allocation classes were used as validation criteria. The temporal prediction was done on the year 2007 from the centroid land prices characterizing the 1995-2006 period. For each class, the land prices of the time-series 1995-2006 were modeled using an Auto-Regressive Moving Average approach. For the validation, the models were applied to the year 2007. The RMSE between predicted and actual prices is used as the validation criteria. We then discussed the methods and the results of the spatial and temporal validation. Based on this methodology, an extrapolation will be tested on another European country with land price market similar to France (to be determined).

Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

As a result of ongoing changes in climate, hydrologic and ecologic effects are being seen across the western United States. A regional study of how climate change affects water resources and habitats in the San Francisco Bay area relied on historical climate data and future projections of climate, which were downscaled to fine spatial scales for application to a regional water-balance model. Changes in climate, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit were modeled for the Bay Area. In addition, detailed studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains, which are on the northern and southern extremes of the Bay Area, respectively, were carried out in collaboration with local water agencies. Resource managers depend on science-based projections to inform planning exercises that result in competent adaptation to ongoing and future changes in water supply and environmental conditions. Results indicated large spatial variability in climate change and the hydrologic response across the region; although there is warming under all projections, potential change in precipitation by the end of the 21st century differed according to model. Hydrologic models predicted reduced early and late wet season runoff for the end of the century for both wetter and drier future climate projections, which could result in an extended dry season. In fact, summers are projected to be longer and drier in the future than in the past regardless of precipitation trends. While water supply could be subject to increased variability (that is, reduced reliability) due to greater variability in precipitation, water demand is likely to steadily increase because of increased evapotranspiration rates and climatic water deficit during the extended summers. Extended dry season conditions and the potential for drought, combined with unprecedented increases in precipitation, could serve as additional stressors on water quality and habitat. By focusing on the relationship between soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration pressures, climatic water deficit integrates the effects of increasing temperature and varying precipitation on basin conditions. At the fine-scale used for these analyses, this variable is an effective indicator of the areas in the landscape that are the most resilient or vulnerable to projected changes. These analyses have shown that regardless of the direction of precipitation change, climatic water deficit is projected to increase, which implies greater water demand to maintain current agricultural resources or land cover. Fine-scale modeling provides a spatially distributed view of locations in the landscape that could prove to be resilient to climatic changes in contrast to locations where vegetation is currently living on the edge of its present-day bioclimatic distribution and, therefore, is more likely to perish or shift to other dominant species under future warming. This type of modeling and the associated analyses provide a useful means for greater understanding of water and land resources, which can lead to better resource management and planning.

Monitoring aggregate disintegration with laser diffraction: A tool for studying soils as sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Joseph; Kasmerchak, Chase; Liang, Mengyu

2016-04-01

One of the more important characteristics of soil that becomes hillslope, fluvial, or aeolian sediment is the presences of aggregates, which disintegrate at varying rates and to varying degrees during transport. Laser diffraction particle size analyzers allow monitoring of aggregate disintegration as a sample of soil or sediment suspended in water is circulated continuously through the measurement cell (Bieganowski et al., 2010, Clay Minerals 45-23-34; Mason et al., Catena 87:107-118). Mason et al. (2011) applied this approach to aeolian sedimentary aggregates (e.g. clay pellets eroded from dry lakebeds), immersing dry samples in DI water and circulating them through a Malvern Mastersizer 2000 particle size analyzer for three hours while repeated size distribution (SD) measurements were made. A final measurement was made after sonication and treatment with Na-metaphosphate. In that study, most samples approached a steady SD within three hours, which included both primary mineral grains and persistent aggregates. The disintegration process could be modeled with a first-order rate law representing the disintegration of a single population of aggregates. A wide range of model parameters were observed among the samples studied, and it was suggested that they could be useful in predicting the behavior of these aggregates, under rainfall impact and during slopewash or fluvial transport. Addition of Ca++ to the suspension altered aggregate behavior in some but not all cases. We applied the same method to dry, unground material from upper horizons of soils sampled along a bioclimatic gradient in northern Minnesota, USA, all formed in lithologically similar glacigenic sediment. These ranged from Alfisols (Luvisols) formed under forest since the last deglaciation, to Alfisols under forest that more recently replaced grassland, and Mollisols (Chernozems) that formed entirely under grassland vegetation. Few of these soil samples approached a steady SD within three hours, and modeling aggregate disintegration required the assumption of at least two aggregate populations. Upper horizons of soils formed under grassland displayed relatively slow disintegration throughout the procedure, with a large proportion of aggregates remaining after three hours. E horizons from forest soils, with low organic matter (OM) and clay content, displayed rapid early distintegration of a large portion of the aggregates, followed by much slower breakdown of the remainder (i.e. the two populations modeled had very different rate constants). OM content is clearly the overriding control on aggregate behavior, but we are also exploring effects of clay content and mineralogy, cation chemistry, and other factors. The differences in aggregate behavior are likely to be relevant to transport and deposition of sediment eroded from these soils, and possibly to the transport of OM or nutrients with eroded soil. We hope to incorporate this method into ongoing field studies of soil erosion with colleagues at UW-Madison.

Seed Oil from Ten Algerian Peanut Landraces for Edible Use and Biodiesel Production.

PubMed

Giuffrè, Angelo Maria; Tellah, Sihem; Capocasale, Marco; Zappia, Clotilde; Latati, Mourad; Badiani, Maurizio; Ounane, Sidi Mohamed

2016-01-01

As a result of a recent ad hoc prospection of the Algerian territory, a collection of peanut (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L.) landraces was established, covering a remarkable array of diversity in terms of morphological and physiological features, as well as of adaptation to local bioclimatic conditions. In the present work, the oils extracted from the seeds of these landraces were evaluated in terms of edible properties and suitability for biodiesel production. As for edible use, a low free acidity (ranging from 0.62 to 1.21%) and a high oleic acid content (44.61-50.94%) were common features, although a poor stability to oxidation [high peroxide values, high spectrophotometric indices, and low % of inhibition in the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical (DPPH)· test] was observed in a few cases. As for biodiesel production, low values of acidity [1.23-2.40 mg KOH (g oil)(-1)], low iodine values [90.70-101.54 g I2 (g oil)(-1)], high cetane numbers (56.95-58.88) and high calorific values (higher heating value 37.34-39.27 MJ kg(-1)) were measured. Edible properties and suitability for biodiesel production were discussed with respect to the German standard DIN 51605 for rapeseed oil and to the EN 14214 standard, respectively. One way ANOVA and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis showed significant differences among the oils from the Algerian peanut landraces.

Physical mapping of 5S and 18S-5.8S-26S RNA gene families in polyploid series of Cenchrus ciliaris Linnaeus, 1771 (Poaceae)

PubMed Central

Kharrat-Souissi, Amina; Siljak-Yakovlev, Sonja; Pustahija, Fatima; Chaieb, Mohamed

2012-01-01

Abstract The Buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris L., Poaceae) is one of the most important pasturage grasses due to its high productivity and good forage qualities. This species possess a high adaptability to bioclimatic constraints of arid zones and may be used for the restoration of degraded arid ecosystems. Tunisian populations present three ploidy levels (4x, 5x and 6x) with a basic chromosome number x=9. This study reported for the first time the distribution of the ribosomal genes (rRNA) for pentaploid and hexaploid cytotypes of Cenchrus ciliaris. Molecular cytogenetic study using double fluorescence in situ hybridization has shown that the two rDNA families, 5S and 18S-5.8S-26S (18S), displayed intraspecific variation in number of loci among different ploidy levels. Each ploidy level was characterized by specific number of both 5S and 18S rDNA loci (two loci in tetraploid, five in pentaploid and six in hexaploid level). For three studied cytotypes (4x, 5x and 6x) all 5S rDNA loci were localized on the subcentromeric region of chromosomes, while 18S loci were situated on the telomeric region of short chromosome arms. Data of the FISH experiments show proportional increase of ribosomal loci number during polyploidization processes. PMID:24260668

Denudational slope processes and slope response to global climate changes and other disturbances: insights from the Nepal Himalayas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fort, Monique

2016-04-01

Hillslope geomorphology results from a large range of denudational processes mainly controlled by relief, structure, lithology, climate, land-cover and land use. In most areas of the world, the "critical zone" concept is a good integrator of denudation that operates on a long-term scale. However, in large and high mountain areas, short-time scale factors often play a significant role in the denudational pattern, accelerating and/or delaying the transfer of denudation products and fluxes, and creating specific, spatially limited disturbances. We focus on the Nepal Himalayas, where the wide altitudinal range of bio-climatic zones and the intense geodynamic activity create a complex mosaic of landforms, as expressed by the present geomorphology of mountain slopes. On the basis of examples selected in the different Himalayan mountain belts (Siwaliks hills, middle mountains, High Himalaya), we illustrate different types of slopes and disturbances induced by active tectonics, climate extremes, and climate warming trends. Special attention is paid to recent events, such as landslide damming, triggered by either intense rainfalls (Kali Gandaki and Sun Kosi valleys) or the last April-May 2015 Gorkha seismic sequence (southern Khumbu). Lastly, references to older, larger events show that despite the highly dynamic environment, landforms caused by large magnitude disturbances may persist in the landscape in the long term.

The interplay between local ecology, divergent selection, and genetic drift in population divergence of a sexually antagonistic female trait.

PubMed

Green, Kristina Karlsson; Svensson, Erik I; Bergsten, Johannes; Härdling, Roger; Hansson, Bengt

2014-07-01

Genetically polymorphic species offer the possibility to study maintenance of genetic variation and the potential role for genetic drift in population divergence. Indirect inference of the selection regimes operating on polymorphic traits can be achieved by comparing population divergence in neutral genetic markers with population divergence in trait frequencies. Such an approach could further be combined with ecological data to better understand agents of selection. Here, we infer the selective regimes acting on a polymorphic mating trait in an insect group; the dorsal structures (either rough or smooth) of female diving beetles. Our recent work suggests that the rough structures have a sexually antagonistic function in reducing male mating attempts. For two species (Dytiscus lapponicus and Graphoderus zonatus), we could not reject genetic drift as an explanation for population divergence in morph frequencies, whereas for the third (Hygrotus impressopunctatus) we found that divergent selection pulls morph frequencies apart across populations. Furthermore, population morph frequencies in H. impressopunctatus were significantly related to local bioclimatic factors, providing an additional line of evidence for local adaptation in this species. These data, therefore, suggest that local ecological factors and sexual conflict interact over larger spatial scales to shape population divergence in the polymorphism. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Detection of relapsing fever Borrelia spp., Bartonella spp. and Anaplasmataceae bacteria in argasid ticks in Algeria

PubMed Central

Bitam, Idir; Leulmi, Hamza; Lalout, Reda; Mediannikov, Oleg; Chergui, Mohamed; Karakellah, Mohamed; Raoult, Didier

2017-01-01

Background Argasid ticks (soft ticks) are blood-feeding arthropods that can parasitize rodents, birds, humans, livestock and companion animals. Ticks of the Ornithodoros genus are known to be vectors of relapsing fever borreliosis in humans. In Algeria, little is known about relapsing fever borreliosis and other bacterial pathogens transmitted by argasid ticks. Methodology/Principal findings Between May 2013 and October 2015, we investigated the presence of soft ticks in 20 rodent burrows, 10 yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) nests and animal shelters in six locations in two different bioclimatic zones in Algeria. Six species of argasid ticks were identified morphologically and through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The presence and prevalence of Borrelia spp., Bartonella spp., Rickettsia spp. and Anaplasmataceae was assessed by qPCR template assays in each specimen. All qPCR-positive samples were confirmed by standard PCR, followed by sequencing the amplified fragments. Two Borrelia species were identified: Borrelia hispanica in Ornithodoros occidentalis in Mostaganem, and Borrelia cf. turicatae in Carios capensis in Algiers. One new Bartonella genotype and one new Anaplasmataceae genotype were also identified in Argas persicus. Conclusions The present study highlights the presence of relapsing fever borreliosis agents, although this disease is rarely diagnosed in Algeria. Other bacteria of unknown pathogenicity detected in argasid ticks which may bite humans deserve further investigation. PMID:29145396

Pioneer farming in southeast Europe during the early sixth millennium BC: Climate-related adaptations in the exploitation of plants and animals

PubMed Central

De Cupere, Bea; Ethier, Jonathan; Marinova, Elena

2018-01-01

The Old World farming system arose in the semi-arid Mediterranean environments of southwest Asia. Pioneer farmers settling the interior of the Balkans by the early sixth millennium BC were among the first to introduce southwest Asian-style cultivation and herding into areas with increasingly continental temperate conditions. Previous research has shown that the bioarchaeological assemblages from early farming sites in southeast Europe vary in their proportions of plant and animal taxa, but the relationship between taxonomic variation and climate has remained poorly understood. To uncover associations between multiple species and environmental factors simultaneously, we explored a dataset including altitude, five bioclimatic and 30 bioarchaeological variables (plant and animal taxa) for 57 of the earliest farming sites in southeast Europe using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). An extension of correspondence analysis, CCA is widely used in applied ecology to answer similar questions of species-environment relationships, but has not been previously applied in prehistoric archaeology to explore taxonomic and climatic variables in conjunction. The analyses reveal that the changes in plant and animal exploitation which occurred with the northward dispersal of farmers, crops and livestock correlate with south-north climate gradients, and emphasize the importance of adaptations in the animal domain for the initial establishment of farming beyond the Mediterranean areas. PMID:29775469

Macroecological analysis of the fish fauna inhabiting Cymodocea nodosa seagrass meadows.

PubMed

Espino, F; Brito, A; Haroun, R; Tuya, F

2015-10-01

In this study, patterns in the taxonomic richness and composition of the fish fauna inhabiting Cymodocea nodosa seagrass meadows were described across their entire distribution range in the Mediterranean Sea and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Specifically, the study tested whether there are differences in the composition of fish assemblages between those ecoregions encompassed by the distribution range of C. nodosa, and whether these differences in composition are connected with differences in bioclimatic affinities of the fish faunas. A literature review resulted in a total of 19 studies, containing 22 fish assemblages at 18 locations. The ichthyofauna associated with C. nodosa seagrass meadows comprises 59 families and 188 species. The western Mediterranean (WM) Sea has the highest species richness (87 species). Fish assemblages from the Macaronesia-Canary Islands, the Sahelian Upwelling, South European Atlantic Shelf and the WM differ, in terms of assemblage composition, relative to other ecoregions. In contrast, the composition of the fish fauna from the central and eastern Mediterranean overlaps. There is a significant serial correlation in fish assemblage composition between adjacent ecoregions along the distribution range of C. nodosa. Dissimilarities in assemblage composition are connected with the geographical separation between locations, and the mean minimum annual seawater temperature is the environmental factor that explains most variation in fish assemblage composition. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida

PubMed Central

Convertino, Matteo; Elsner, James B.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kiker, Gregory A.; Martinez, Christopher J.; Fischer, Richard A.; Linkov, Igor

2011-01-01

Background The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations. Conclusions/Significance Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones. PMID:21264268

Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land: The contribution of agroforestry to global and national carbon budgets

PubMed Central

Zomer, Robert J.; Neufeldt, Henry; Xu, Jianchu; Ahrends, Antje; Bossio, Deborah; Trabucco, Antonio; van Noordwijk, Meine; Wang, Mingcheng

2016-01-01

Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural land make an important contribution to climate change mitigation, but are not systematically accounted for in either global carbon budgets or national carbon accounting. This paper assesses the role of trees on agricultural land and their significance for carbon sequestration at a global level, along with recent change trends. Remote sensing data show that in 2010, 43% of all agricultural land globally had at least 10% tree cover and that this has increased by 2% over the previous ten years. Combining geographically and bioclimatically stratified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 default estimates of carbon storage with this tree cover analysis, we estimated 45.3 PgC on agricultural land globally, with trees contributing >75%. Between 2000 and 2010 tree cover increased by 3.7%, resulting in an increase of >2 PgC (or 4.6%) of biomass carbon. On average, globally, biomass carbon increased from 20.4 to 21.4 tC ha−1. Regional and country-level variation in stocks and trends were mapped and tabulated globally, and for all countries. Brazil, Indonesia, China and India had the largest increases in biomass carbon stored on agricultural land, while Argentina, Myanmar, and Sierra Leone had the largest decreases. PMID:27435095

A montane Mediterranean climate supports year-round photosynthesis and high forest biomass.

PubMed

Kelly, Anne E; Goulden, Michael L

2016-04-01

The mid-elevation forest of California's Sierra Nevada poses a bioclimatic paradox. Mid-elevation trees experience a montane Mediterranean climate, with near-freezing winter days and rain-free summers. The asynchrony between warmth and water input suggests low primary production, limited by photosynthetic dormancy in winter cold, and again in summer and early autumn with drought, yet this forest is characterized by tall trees and high biomass. We used eddy covariance in a mid-elevation Sierra stand to understand how winter cold and summer drought limit canopy photosynthesis and production. The trees exhibited canopy photosynthesis year-round. Trees avoided winter dormancy, and daytime CO2uptake continued despite a deep snowpack and near-freezing temperatures. Photosynthesis on sunny days continued at half of maximum rates when air temperature was 0 °C. Likewise, the vegetation avoided summer drought dormancy, and high rates of daytime CO2uptake and transpiration continued despite a 5-month period with only negligible water input. We attribute this drought avoidance to deep rooting and availability of deep soil water. Year-round photosynthesis helps explain the large biomass observed in the Sierra Nevada, and implies adaptive strategies that may contribute to the resiliency or vulnerability of Sierran vegetation to climate change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sympatric parallel diversification of major oak clades in the Americas and the origins of Mexican species diversity.

PubMed

Hipp, Andrew L; Manos, Paul S; González-Rodríguez, Antonio; Hahn, Marlene; Kaproth, Matthew; McVay, John D; Avalos, Susana Valencia; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

2018-01-01

Oaks (Quercus, Fagaceae) are the dominant tree genus of North America in species number and biomass, and Mexico is a global center of oak diversity. Understanding the origins of oak diversity is key to understanding biodiversity of northern temperate forests. A phylogenetic study of biogeography, niche evolution and diversification patterns in Quercus was performed using 300 samples, 146 species. Next-generation sequencing data were generated using the restriction-site associated DNA (RAD-seq) method. A time-calibrated maximum likelihood phylogeny was inferred and analyzed with bioclimatic, soils, and leaf habit data to reconstruct the biogeographic and evolutionary history of the American oaks. Our highly resolved phylogeny demonstrates sympatric parallel diversification in climatic niche, leaf habit, and diversification rates. The two major American oak clades arose in what is now the boreal zone and radiated, in parallel, from eastern North America into Mexico and Central America. Oaks adapted rapidly to niche transitions. The Mexican oaks are particularly numerous, not because Mexico is a center of origin, but because of high rates of lineage diversification associated with high rates of evolution along moisture gradients and between the evergreen and deciduous leaf habits. Sympatric parallel diversification in the oaks has shaped the diversity of North American forests. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues.

PubMed

Ostrowski, Marie-France; Prosperi, Jean-Marie; David, Jacques

2016-01-01

Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives.

Olea europaea L. in the North Mediterranean Basin during the Pleniglacial and the Early-Middle Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrión, Yolanda; Ntinou, Maria; Badal, Ernestina

2010-04-01

The paper aims to define the natural distribution of Olea europaea L. var. sylvestris (Miller) Lehr. in the North Mediterranean basin during the Pleniglacial and the Early-Middle Holocene by means of the identification of its wood-charcoal and/or wood at prehistoric sites. For this purpose we have reviewed the previously available information and we have combined it with new wood-charcoal analyses data. We have taken under consideration the presence and frequency of O. europaea L. in the available wood-charcoal sequences, the characteristics of the accompanying flora, the associated chrono-cultural contexts, the broader biogeographical context and the AMS dates provided by Olea wood-charcoal or endocarps. According to the available evidence, during the Middle and Late Pleniglacial (ca 59-11.5 ka cal. BP), Olea would have persisted in thermophilous refugia located in the southern areas of the North Mediterranean basin, the southern Levant and the north of Africa. The Last Glacial Maximum (ca 22-18 ka cal. BP) probably reduced the distribution area of Olea. During the Preboreal and the Boreal (ca 11 500-8800 cal. BP) the species started to expand in the thermomediterranean bioclimatic level. In the western Mediterranean, during the Atlantic period (ca 8800-5600 cal. BP), the species became very abundant or dominant in the thermophilous plant formations and expanded to favorable enclaves outside the limits of the thermomediterranean level.

First molecular survey of Anaplasma bovis in small ruminants from Tunisia.

PubMed

Ben Said, Mourad; Belkahia, Hanène; Karaoud, Maroua; Bousrih, Maha; Yahiaoui, Mouna; Daaloul-Jedidi, Monia; Messadi, Lilia

2015-09-30

To date, no information is available regarding the presence of Anaplasma bovis in the South Mediterranean area. In this study, prevalence, risk factors, and genetic diversity of A. bovis were assessed in small ruminants. A total of 563 healthy small ruminants (260 sheep and 303 goats), from 25 randomly selected flocks located in 5 localities from two bioclimatic areas in Tunisia, were investigated for the detection of A. bovis in blood by nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) assay. The overall infection rates of A. bovis were 42.7 and 23.8% in sheep and goats, respectively. Goats located in a sub-humid area were statistically more infected than those located in a humid area. A. bovis prevalence rate varied significantly according to sheep and goat flocks, and to the sheep breed. Infection with A. bovis was validated by sequencing. Sequence analysis based on the 16S rRNA gene showed that A. bovis from Tunisian goats and sheep clustered with other strain sequences detected from wild and domestic animals and published in GenBank. This study gives the first insight of presence of A. bovis DNA in small ruminants in Tunisia and suggests that these animal species may be playing an important role in the bovine anaplasmosis natural cycle caused by A. bovis in the South Mediterranean ecosystem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

First molecular evidence of [i]Borrelia burgdorferi[/i] sensu lato in goats, sheep, cattle and camels in Tunisia.

PubMed

Ben Said, Mourad; Belkahia, Hanène; Alberti, Alberto; Abdi, Khaoula; Zhioua, Manel; Daaloul-Jedidi, Monia; Messadi, Lilia

2016-09-01

Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) are tick-transmitted spirochaetes of veterinary and human importance. Molecular epidemiology data on ruminants are still lacking in most countries of the world. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the rate of B. burgdorferi s.l. infection in ruminants from Tunisia. A total of 1,021 ruminants (303 goats, 260 sheep, 232 cattle and 226 camels) from different bioclimatic areas in Tunisia were investigated for the presence of B. burgdorferi s.l. DNA in blood by real time PCR. Prevalence rates were 30.4% (92/303) in goats, 6.2% (16/260) in sheep, 1.3% (3/232) in cattle, and 1.8% (4/226) in camels. Only tick species belonging to Rhipicephalus and Hyalomma genera were found on the investigated animals. In small ruminants, the prevalence of B. burgdorferi s.l. varied significantly according to localities and farms. Goats located in humid areas were statistically more infected than those located in sub-humid areas. Prevalence rates varied significantly according to age and breed in sheep, and age and tick infestation in goats. This study provides the first insight into the presence of B. burgdorferi s.l. DNA in ruminants in Tunisia, and demonstrates that host species such as goats and sheep may play an important role in natural Lyme disease cycles in this country.

Climate induced changes in biome distribution, NPP and hydrology for potential vegetation of the Upper Midwest U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motew, M.; Kucharik, C. J.

2011-12-01

While much attention is focused on future impacts of climate change on ecosystems, much can be learned about the previous interactions of ecosystems with recent climate change. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation distributions (i.e. grasses, trees, and shrubs) and carbon and water cycling across the Upper Midwest USA from 1948-2007 using the Agro-IBIS dynamic vegetation model. We drove the model using a historical, gridded daily climate data set (temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at a spatial resolution of 5 min x 5 min. While trends in climate variables exhibited heterogeneous spatial patterns over the study period, the overall impact of climate change on vegetation productivity was positive. We observed total increases in net primary productivity (NPP) ranging from 20-150 g C m-2, based on linear regression analysis. We determined that increased summer relative humidity, increased annual precipitation and decreased mean maximum summer temperatures were key variables contributing to these positive trends, likely through a reduction in soil moisture stress (e.g., increased available water) and heat stress. Model simulations also illustrated an increase in annual drainage throughout the region of 20-140 mm yr-1, driven by substantial increases in annual precipitation. Evapotranspiration had a highly variable spatial trend over the 60-year period, with total change over the study period ranging between -100 and +100 mm yr-1. We also analyzed potential changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions at the biome level, but hypothesize that the model may be unable to adequately capture competitive interactions among PFTs as well as the dynamics between upper and lower canopies consisting of trees, grasses and shrubs. An analysis of the bioclimatic envelopes for PFTs common to the region revealed no significant change to the boreal conifer tree climatic domain over the study period, yet did reveal a slightly expanded domain for temperate deciduous broadleaf trees. The location of the Tension Zone, a broad ecotone dividing mixed forests in the north and southern hardwood forests and prairies in the south, was not observed to shift using analyses of both meteorological variables and through the results of simulated vegetation distributions. In general, our results supported the idea that climate change is spatially variable in nature, having significant effects on ecosystem structure and function. Our analysis also revealed interesting relationships among the key climatic quantities driving plant productivity and hydrology in the region. Most notably, while the model suggested that potential biome and PFT distributions have not likely shifted significantly in the past 60 years, climate change has contributed to substantial changes in coupled carbon, water, and energy exchange in natural ecosystems of the Upper Midwest US. We conclude that incorporating recent, high-resolution climate records into ecological studies offers valuable insight into the heterogeneous nature of climate change and its impacts on ecosystems at the local level.

Approaches to recreational landscape scaling of mountain resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalaya, Elena; Efimenko, Natalia; Povolotskaia, Nina; Slepih, Vladimir

2013-04-01

In the mountain resorts (MR) the climate and the landscape are natural medical resources which are very sensitive to anthropogenic influences [EGU2011-6740-3; EGU2012-6103]. Positive experience of the climatic and landscape treatment at the MR of the North Caucasus allowed us to establish fundamental interrelation between the quality of recreational landscapes (RL), climatic conditions and the efficiency of medical rehabilitation of people at the MR on the basis of rational use of natural medical resources. There have been registered the following bioclimatic distinctions and physiological responses with the recipients suffering from high disadaptation according to the results of the complex route medical and geophysical studies on the urban and park landscapes. We have defined hot discomfort at the open space of urban territory when the weather is extremely hot and anticyclone - the thermal balance (TB) is higher than +840 W/sq.m, extreme risk of solar erythema burn - UVI - higher than 11, the low content of natural anions - lower than 260 ion/cm3, high coefficient of ions unipolarity (CIU) - 2.16 and a high temperature of the underlying surface (asphalt) 46.40C. At the same time in the resort park of vegetable association Bétula péndula (50 years) TB was significantly lower - +480 W/sq.m, there was no risk of erythema burn (UVI 4), an optimum level of natural anions was 840 ion/cm3 and the value of CIU was 0.98, grass and soil temperature was + 290C and there was a favourable background of evaporating metabolites. At such favourable bioclimatic change the patients have been registered to have the voltage reduction of the vegetative index (from 640 to 380; N-150), the increase in efficiency of neurohumoral regulation (from 0.12 to 0.34; N 0,50), the decrease in spectrum excitability of brain activity in the range of waves: delta 0 … 0.4Hz by 16%, the increase in work activity of the brain in the range of waves: thetra 4 … 8 Hz, alpha 8 … 13 Hz. beta 13 … 19 Hz, gamma 19 … 25Hz by 9-17%; the increase in adaptation layer of the organism by 21% and a versatility indicator of health - by 19%; the decrease in systolic (from 145 to 131 mm of mercury) and diastolic (from 96 to 82 mm of mercury) arterial pressure, the increase in indicators of carpal dynamometry (on the right hand from 27 to 36 kg, on the left hand from 25 to 34 kg), the increase in speed of thermogenesis (from 0.0633 to 0.0944 K/s) and quality of neurovascular reactivity (from 48% to 81%). In the whole the patient`s cenesthesia has improved. We have also studied the responses of adaptive reactions with the recipients at other options of RL. But researches are still being carried out in this direction. Their results will be used as a base of RL scaling of North Caucasus mountain territories. This problem is interdisciplinary, multidimensional and deals with both medical and geophysical issues. The studies were performed by support of the Program "Basic Sciences for Medicine" and RFBR project No.10-05-01014_a.

Distribution, abundance and traditional management of Agave potatorum in the Tehuacán Valley, Mexico: bases for sustainable use of non-timber forest products.

PubMed

Delgado-Lemus, América; Casas, Alejandro; Téllez, Oswaldo

2014-09-03

Agave species have been used for thousands of years in the Tehuacán Valley, but the current mescal production has great impact on populations of the most used species. Harvesting of A. potatorum takes place before sexual reproduction and the over-extraction put local populations at high risk. In the community of San Luis Atolotilán (SLA), mescal has been produced for one century but the growing mescal trade is leading to intensified agave extraction. Our study evaluated distribution and abundance of A. potatorum, extraction rates, management practices and economic importance for SLA households. The unbalanced relation between availability and extraction rates would be an indicator of risk requiring sustainable management strategies. Our case study aspires contributing to analyze general patterns for sustainable use for this and other forest products highly extracted. We used bioclimatic modeling to project a map of potential distribution of the species, and ecological sampling to estimate the total availability of harvestable agaves within the territory of SLA. We used participant observation, surveys and semi-structured interviews with producers and households of SLA to document agave uses, technological and socio-economic aspects of mescal production, and to estimate extraction rates of agaves. Mescal production, medicine and fodder are the most important uses of A. potatorum. Its distribution area is nearly 608 ha where annually occur on average 7,296 harvestable plants, nearly 54 to 87% of them being harvested. Mescal production currently is a non-sustainable activity, requiring great changes in patterns of extraction and management adopting sustainable criteria. Local people started management planning to ensure the future availability of agaves, and the ecological information of this study has been helpful in constructing their decisions. Technical support for improving local experiences for managing populations' recovering is a priority. Interaction of scholars and local people for solving this problem is already taking place and strengthening this process may be determinant for successful results. Strategies for protecting particular populations, temporal substitution of agave species for mescal production, implementation of restoration and organization for fear commerce are needed for improving sustainable use of A. potatorum.

Evolution of microgastropods (Ellobioidea, Carychiidae): integrating taxonomic, phylogenetic and evolutionary hypotheses

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Current biodiversity patterns are considered largely the result of past climatic and tectonic changes. In an integrative approach, we combine taxonomic and phylogenetic hypotheses to analyze temporal and geographic diversification of epigean (Carychium) and subterranean (Zospeum) evolutionary lineages in Carychiidae (Eupulmonata, Ellobioidea). We explicitly test three hypotheses: 1) morphospecies encompass unrecognized evolutionary lineages, 2) limited dispersal results in a close genetic relationship of geographical proximally distributed taxa and 3) major climatic and tectonic events had an impact on lineage diversification within Carychiidae. Results Initial morphospecies assignments were investigated by different molecular delimitation approaches (threshold, ABGD, GMYC and SP). Despite a conservative delimitation strategy, carychiid morphospecies comprise a great number of unrecognized evolutionary lineages. We attribute this phenomenon to historic underestimation of morphological stasis and phenotypic variability amongst lineages. The first molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the Carychiidae (based on COI, 16S and H3) reveals Carychium and Zospeum to be reciprocally monophyletic. Geographical proximally distributed lineages are often closely related. The temporal diversification of Carychiidae is best described by a constant rate model of diversification. The evolution of Carychiidae is characterized by relatively few (long distance) colonization events. We find support for an Asian origin of Carychium. Zospeum may have arrived in Europe before extant members of Carychium. Distantly related Carychium clades inhabit a wide spectrum of the available bioclimatic niche and demonstrate considerable niche overlap. Conclusions Carychiid taxonomy is in dire need of revision. An inferred wide distribution and variable phenotype suggest underestimated diversity in Zospeum. Several Carychium morphospecies are results of past taxonomic lumping. By collecting populations at their type locality, molecular investigations are able to link historic morphospecies assignments to their respective evolutionary lineage. We propose that rare founder populations initially colonized a continent or cave system. Subsequent passive dispersal into adjacent areas led to in situ pan-continental or mountain range diversifications. Major environmental changes did not influence carychiid diversification. However, certain molecular delimitation methods indicated a recent decrease in diversification rate. We attribute this decrease to protracted speciation. PMID:23343473

Body Size Evolution in Insular Speckled Rattlesnakes (Viperidae: Crotalus mitchellii)

PubMed Central

Meik, Jesse M.; Lawing, A. Michelle; Pires-daSilva, André

2010-01-01

Background Speckled rattlesnakes (Crotalus mitchellii) inhabit multiple islands off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Two of the 14 known insular populations have been recognized as subspecies based primarily on body size divergence from putative mainland ancestral populations; however, a survey of body size variation from other islands occupied by these snakes has not been previously reported. We examined body size variation between island and mainland speckled rattlesnakes, and the relationship between body size and various island physical variables among 12 island populations. We also examined relative head size among giant, dwarfed, and mainland speckled rattlesnakes to determine whether allometric differences conformed to predictions of gape size (and indirectly body size) evolving in response to shifts in prey size. Methodology/Principal Findings Insular speckled rattlesnakes show considerable variation in body size when compared to mainland source subspecies. In addition to previously known instances of gigantism on Ángel de la Guarda and dwarfism on El Muerto, various degrees of body size decrease have occurred frequently in this taxon, with dwarfed rattlesnakes occurring mostly on small, recently isolated, land-bridge islands. Regression models using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) showed that mean SVL of insular populations was most strongly correlated with island area, suggesting the influence of selection for different body size optima for islands of different size. Allometric differences in head size of giant and dwarf rattlesnakes revealed patterns consistent with shifts to larger and smaller prey, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Our data provide the first example of a clear relationship between body size and island area in a squamate reptile species; among vertebrates this pattern has been previously documented in few insular mammals. This finding suggests that selection for body size is influenced by changes in community dynamics that are related to graded differences in area over what are otherwise similar bioclimatic conditions. We hypothesize that in this system shifts to larger prey, episodic saturation and depression of primary prey density, and predator release may have led to insular gigantism, and that shifts to smaller prey and increased reproductive efficiency in the presence of intense intraspecific competition may have led to insular dwarfism. PMID:20209105

Climate change exacerbates interspecific interactions in sympatric coastal fishes.

PubMed

Milazzo, Marco; Mirto, Simone; Domenici, Paolo; Gristina, Michele

2013-03-01

Biological responses to warming are presently based on the assumption that species will remain within their bioclimatic envelope as environmental conditions change. As a result, changes in the relative abundance of several marine species have been documented over the last decades. This suggests that warming may drive novel interspecific interactions to occur (i.e. invasive vs. native species) or may intensify the strength of pre-existing ones (i.e. warm vs. cold adapted). For mobile species, habitat relocation is a viable solution to track tolerable conditions and reduce competitive costs, resulting in 'winner' species dominating the best quality habitat at the expense of 'loser' species. Here, we focus on the importance of warming in exacerbating interspecific interactions between two sympatric fishes. We assessed the relocation response of the cool-water fish Coris julis (a potential 'loser' species in warming scenarios) at increasing relative dominance of the warm-water fish Thalassoma pavo (a 'winner' species). These wrasses are widespread in the Mediterranean nearshore waters. C. julis tolerates cooler waters and is found throughout the basin. T. pavo is common along southern coasts, although the species range is expanding northwards as the Mediterranean warms. We surveyed habitat patterns along a thermo-latitudinal gradient in the Western Mediterranean Sea and manipulated seawater temperature under two scenarios (present day vs. projected) in outdoor arenas. Our results show that the cool-water species relocates to a less-preferred seagrass habitat and undergoes lower behavioural performance in warmer environments, provided the relative dominance of its warm-water antagonist is high. The results suggest that expected warming will act synergistically with increased relative dominance of a warm-water species to cause a cool-water fish to relocate in a less-preferred habitat within the same thermal environment. Our study highlights the complexity of climate change effects and has broad implications for predictive models of responses to warming. To achieve more accurate predictions, further consideration is needed of the pervasive importance of species interactions. We believe these fundamental issues to be addressed to understand the biotic consequences of climate change. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Paleoclimatic insights from mapping the global distribution of non-glacial cryogenic landforms in sub-humid montane environments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slee, Adrian; Shulmeister, James

2015-04-01

Much of the 'periglacial' literature is based on landforms and observations from either high mountains or continental environments dominated by strong winter cooling and/or permafrost conditions. Cryogenic conditions occur in many other settings and some of the most widespread are montane landscapes in mid- to low latitudes. In Australia observations of 'periglacial' landforms have traditionally been limited to higher elevation regions of the Australian Alps and central Tasmania. However, the distribution of relict cryogenic landforms is much wider and extends well into sub-tropical latitudes along the eastern highlands of Australia. Here we map the distribution of relict block deposits (block streams and block fields) of known cryogenic origin so as to delineate the limits of 'periglacial' climatic conditions during cold phases in the Late Quaternary. The mapping is based on image analyses supported by extensive and intensive ground truthing. Three distinct regimes are recognised - a high elevation winter wet regime (Mt Kosciuszko style); a temperate maritime westerly regime (Tasmania style) and, unexpectedly, an east coast (sub-tropical) regime (New England style). We utilise bio-climatic modelling to derive modern climate parameters from the distribution of the block deposits so as to map regions affected by cryogenic conditions in late Quaternary cold periods. We assumed that relative changes in mean cooling and precipitation would be shared by other mid-latitude climate locales worldwide and predicted the likely distribution of block deposits in these areas. A literature review confirms the presence of 'periglacial' style block deposits in the predicted regions, including part of the Iberian Peninsula, the Atlas and Drakensburg Mountains of Africa, the Mediterranean island of Sardinia, the higher volcanoes of Mexico and parts of China, all of which have mean annual precipitation similar to the New England area. However, we also note that many of these areas have winter wet (Mediterranean) climates and when seasonality of precipitation is included, winter dry New England becomes an anomaly. We conclude that in addition to significant cooling, winter moisture balance was more positive, in northern New South Wales during cooler climate periods.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.

PubMed

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Suk, Jonathan E; Sudre, Bertrand; Hess, Andrea; Tjaden, Nils B; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2013-11-12

Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios. In order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.

Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

PubMed

Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

2015-06-01

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

The ecology of religious beliefs

PubMed Central

Botero, Carlos A.; Gardner, Beth; Kirby, Kathryn R.; Bulbulia, Joseph; Gavin, Michael C.; Gray, Russell D.

2014-01-01

Although ecological forces are known to shape the expression of sociality across a broad range of biological taxa, their role in shaping human behavior is currently disputed. Both comparative and experimental evidence indicate that beliefs in moralizing high gods promote cooperation among humans, a behavioral attribute known to correlate with environmental harshness in nonhuman animals. Here we combine fine-grained bioclimatic data with the latest statistical tools from ecology and the social sciences to evaluate the potential effects of environmental forces, language history, and culture on the global distribution of belief in moralizing high gods (n = 583 societies). After simultaneously accounting for potential nonindependence among societies because of shared ancestry and cultural diffusion, we find that these beliefs are more prevalent among societies that inhabit poorer environments and are more prone to ecological duress. In addition, we find that these beliefs are more likely in politically complex societies that recognize rights to movable property. Overall, our multimodel inference approach predicts the global distribution of beliefs in moralizing high gods with an accuracy of 91%, and estimates the relative importance of different potential mechanisms by which this spatial pattern may have arisen. The emerging picture is neither one of pure cultural transmission nor of simple ecological determinism, but rather a complex mixture of social, cultural, and environmental influences. Our methods and findings provide a blueprint for how the increasing wealth of ecological, linguistic, and historical data can be leveraged to understand the forces that have shaped the behavior of our own species. PMID:25385605

Quantifying ecological, morphological, and genetic variation to delimit species in the coast horned lizard species complex (Phrynosoma)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leache, A.D.; Koo, M.S.; Spencer, C.L.; Papenfuss, T.J.; Fisher, R.N.; McGuire, J.A.

2009-01-01

Lineage separation and divergence form a temporally extended process whereby populations may diverge genetically, morphologically, or ecologically, and these contingent properties of species provide the operational criteria necessary for species delimitation.We inferred the historical process of lineage formation in the coast horned lizard (Phrynosoma coronatum) species complex by evaluating a diversity of operational species criteria, including divergence in mtDNA (98 specimens; 2,781 bp) and nuclear loci (RAG-1, 1,054 bp; BDNF 529 bp), ecological niches (11 bioclimatic variables; 285 unique localities), and cranial horn shapes (493 specimens; 16 landmarks). A phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA recovers 5 phylogeographic groups arranged latitudinally along the Baja California Peninsula and in California. The 2 southern phylogeographic groups exhibit concordance between genetic, morphological, and ecological divergence; however, differentiation is weak or absent at more recent levels defined by phylogeographic breaks in California. Interpreting these operational species criteria together suggests that there are 3 ecologically divergent and morphologically diagnosable species within the P. coronatum complex. Our 3-species taxonomic hypothesis invokes a deep coalescence event when fitting the mtDNA genealogy into the species tree, which is not unexpected for populations that have diverged recently. Although the hypothesis that the 3 phylogeographic groups distributed across California each represent distinctive species is not supported by all of the operational species criteria evaluated in this study, the conservation status of the imperiled populations represented by these genealogical units remains critical.

Ecological differentiation of members of the Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of West Nile virus and Rift Valley fever virus in Algeria.

PubMed

Amara Korba, Raouf; Alayat, Moufida Saoucen; Bouiba, Lazhari; Boudrissa, Abdelkarim; Bouslama, Zihad; Boukraa, Slimane; Francis, Frederic; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Boubidi, Saïd Chaouki

2016-08-17

We investigated the ecological differentiation of two members of the Culex pipiens complex, Cx. p. pipiens form pipiens and Cx. p. pipiens form molestus in three sites, El-Kala, M'Sila and Tinerkouk in Algeria. These two forms are the most widespread mosquito vectors in temperate regions exhibiting important behavioural and physiological differences. Nevertheless, this group of potential vectors has been poorly studied, particularly in North Africa. Ten larval populations of Cx. p. pipiens were sampled from various above- and underground habitats in three zones representing the three bioclimatic regions in Algeria. The reproduction characteristics were also investigated in the laboratory to define the rates of autogeny and stenogamy. Identification of Cx. p. pipiens members present in Algeria was achieved using a molecular analysis with the microsatellite CQ11 locus. We detected larvae of Cx. p. pipiens in all areas suggesting that the species is a ubiquitous mosquito well adapted to various environments. To our knowledge, this study provides the first molecular evidence of the presence of the Cx. p. pipiens form molestus and hybrids (molestus/pipiens) in Algeria with a high proportion of molestus form (48.3 %) in comparison with hybrids (36.8 %) and pipiens form (14.9 %). Some unexpected correlations between the proportion of forms pipiens, molestus and hybrids, and mosquito biological characteristics were observed suggesting some epigenetic effects controlling Cx. p. pipiens mating and reproduction. Consequences for pathogen transmission are discussed.

Genotypic diversity in root-endophytic fungi reflects efficient dispersal and environmental adaptation.

PubMed

Glynou, Kyriaki; Ali, Tahir; Kia, Sevda Haghi; Thines, Marco; Maciá-Vicente, Jose G

2017-09-01

Studying community structure and dynamics of plant-associated fungi is the basis for unravelling their interactions with hosts and ecosystem functions. A recent sampling revealed that only a few fungal groups, as defined by internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) sequence similarity, dominate culturable root endophytic communities of nonmycorrhizal Microthlaspi spp. plants across Europe. Strains of these fungi display a broad phenotypic and functional diversity, which suggests a genetic variability masked by ITS clustering into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). The aims of this study were to identify how genetic similarity patterns of these fungi change across environments and to evaluate their ability to disperse and adapt to ecological conditions. A first ITS-based haplotype analysis of ten widespread OTUs mostly showed a low to moderate genotypic differentiation, with the exception of a group identified as Cadophora sp. that was highly diverse. A multilocus phylogeny based on additional genetic loci (partial translation elongation factor 1α, beta-tubulin and actin) and amplified fragment length polymorphism profiling of 185 strains representative of the five dominant OTUs revealed a weak association of genetic differences with geography and environmental conditions, including bioclimatic and soil factors. Our findings suggest that dominant culturable root endophytic fungi have efficient dispersal capabilities, and that their distribution is little affected by environmental filtering. Other processes, such as inter- and intraspecific biotic interactions, may be more important for the local assembly of their communities. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genetic characterization of wild swamp deer populations: ex situ conservation and forensics implications.

PubMed

Kumar, Ved Prakash; Shrivastwa, Anupam; Nigam, Parag; Kumar, Dhyanendra; Goyal, Surendra Prakash

2017-11-01

Swamp deer (Rucervus duvaucelii) is an endemic, Scheduled I species under the Wildlife (Protection) Act 1972, India. According to variations in antler size, it has been classified into three subspecies, namely Western (R. duvaucelii duvaucelii), Central (R. duvaucelii branderi), and Eastern (R. duvaucelii ranjitsinhii). For planning effective ex situ and in situ conservation of a wide-ranging species in different bioclimatic regions and in wildlife forensic, the use of genetic characterization in defining morpho/ecotypes has been suggested because of the geographic clines and reproductive isolation. In spite of these morphotypes, very little is known about the genetic characteristics of the three subspecies, hence no strict subspecies-based breeding plan for retaining the evolutionary characteristics in captive populations for subsequent re-introduction is available except for a few studies. We describe the genetic characteristics of these three subspecies using cytochrome b of the mtDNA genome (400 bp). The DNA sequence data indicated 11 variable sites within the three subspecies. Two paraphyletic clades, namely the Central India and Western-Eastern populations were found, whereas the Western and Eastern populations are monophyletic with a bootstrap value of 69% within the clade. We suggest the need of sorting these three subspecies using different molecular mtDNA markers in zoos for captive breeding purposes so as to retain the genetic diversity of the separate geographic clines and to use a subspecies-specific fixed-state nucleotide to assess the extent of poaching to avoid any population demography stochastically in India.

Impact of climatic change on the northern latitude limit and population density of the disease-transmitting European tick Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed Central

Lindgren, E; Tälleklint, L; Polfeldt, T

2000-01-01

We examined whether a reported northward expansion of the geographic distribution limit of the disease-transmitting tick Ixodes ricinus and an increased tick density between the early 1980s and mid-1990s in Sweden was related to climatic changes. The annual number of days with minimum temperatures above vital bioclimatic thresholds for the tick's life-cycle dynamics were related to tick density in both the early 1980s and the mid-1990s in 20 districts in central and northern Sweden. The winters were markedly milder in all of the study areas in the 1990s as compared to the 1980s. Our results indicate that the reported northern shift in the distribution limit of ticks is related to fewer days during the winter seasons with low minimum temperatures, i.e., below -12 degrees C. At high latitudes, low winter temperatures had the clearest impact on tick distribution. Further south, a combination of mild winters (fewer days with minimum temperatures below -7 degrees C) and extended spring and autumn seasons (more days with minimum temperatures from 5 to 8 degrees C) was related to increases in tick density. We conclude that the relatively mild climate of the 1990s in Sweden is probably one of the primary reasons for the observed increase of density and geographic range of I. ricinus ticks. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 PMID:10656851

Subjective time runs faster under the influence of bright rather than dim light conditions during the forenoon.

PubMed

Morita, Takeshi; Fukui, Tomoe; Morofushi, Masayo; Tokura, Hiromi

2007-05-16

The study investigated if 6 h morning bright light exposure, compared with dim light exposure, could influence time sense (range: 5-15 s). Eight women served as participants. The participant entered a bioclimatic chamber at 10:00 h on the day before the test day, where an ambient temperature and relative humidity were controlled at 25 degrees C and 60%RH. She sat quietly in a sofa in 50 lx until 22:00 h, retired at 22:00 h and then slept in total darkness. She rose at 07:00 h the following morning and again sat quietly in a sofa till 13:00 h, either in bright (2500 lx) or dim light (50 lx), the order of light intensities between the two occasions being randomized. The time-estimation test was performed from 13:00 to 13:10 h in 200 lx. The participant estimated the time that had elapsed between two buzzers, ranging over 5-15 s, and inputting the estimate into a computer. The test was carried out separately upon each individual. Results showed that the participants estimated higher durations of the given time intervals after previous exposure to 6 h of bright rather than dim light. The finding is discussed in terms of different load errors (difference between the actual core temperature and its thermoregulatory set-point) following 6-h exposure to bright or dim light in the morning.

Interactions between tectonics, climate and vegetation during the Cretaceous. A context for the diversification of Angiosperms.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulchre, Pierre; Chaboureau, Anne-Claire; Donnadieu, Yannick; Franc, Alain; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste

2017-04-01

It has long been thought that the Angiosperms diversification occurred within a context of warmer-than-present and equable climate during the Cretaceous. However, during the last decade, the view of a uniformely warm Cretaceous climate has been challenged both by paleoclimate proxies and numerical simulations. Among the processes likely affecting climate during this time, atmospheric pCO2 and tectonics appear to be pivotal to drive temperature and precipitation changes, while the feedbacks from vegetation cover changes on the hydrological cycles remain to be explored. Here we attempt to provide a review of the main studies exploring climate-vegetation interactions during the Cretaceous. Then we present climate simulations aiming at quantifying the impact of landmasses redistribution on climate and vegetation distribution from 225 Ma to 70 Ma. In our simulations, the Pangea breakup triggers the decrease of arid belts from the Triassic to the Cretaceous and a subsequent onset of humid conditions during the late Cretaceous. Positioning angiosperm-bearing fossil sites on our paleo-bioclimatic maps confirm that the rise of flowering plants occured within a context of changing climate. With additional simulations in which we modified physiological parameterizations of the vegetation, we explore the combined impact of paleogeography and shift to angiosperms-dominated land surfaces on climate at the regional and global scales. This gives us the opportunity to test earlier ideas that the angiosperms takeover could have benefited from a positive feedback induced by their particular transpiration capacities.

Combined use of leaf size and economics traits allows direct comparison of hydrophyte and terrestrial herbaceous adaptive strategies.

PubMed

Pierce, Simon; Brusa, Guido; Sartori, Matteo; Cerabolini, Bruno E L

2012-04-01

Hydrophytes generally exhibit highly acquisitive leaf economics. However, a range of growth forms is evident, from small, free-floating and rapidly growing Lemniden to large, broad-leaved Nymphaeiden, denoting variability in adaptive strategies. Traits used to classify adaptive strategies in terrestrial species, such as canopy height, are not applicable to hydrophytes. We hypothesize that hydrophyte leaf size traits and economics exhibit sufficient overlap with terrestrial species to allow a common classification of plant functional types, sensu Grime's CSR theory. Leaf morpho-functional traits were measured for 61 species from 47 water bodies in lowland continental, sub-alpine and alpine bioclimatic zones in southern Europe and compared against the full leaf economics spectrum and leaf size range of terrestrial herbs, and between hydrophyte growth forms. Hydrophytes differed in the ranges and mean values of traits compared with herbs, but principal components analysis (PCA) demonstrated that both groups shared axes of trait variability: PCA1 encompassed size variation (area and mass), and PCA2 ranged from relatively dense, carbon-rich leaves to nitrogen-rich leaves of high specific leaf area (SLA). Most growth forms exhibited trait syndromes directly equivalent to herbs classified as R adapted, although Nymphaeiden ranged between C and SR adaptation. Our findings support the hypothesis that hydrophyte adaptive strategy variation reflects fundamental trade-offs in economics and size that govern all plants, and that hydrophyte adaptive strategies can be directly compared with terrestrial species by combining leaf economics and size traits.

Bioclimatic and physical characterization of the world’s islands

PubMed Central

Weigelt, Patrick; Jetz, Walter; Kreft, Holger

2013-01-01

The Earth’s islands harbor a distinct, yet highly threatened, biological and cultural diversity that has been shaped by geographic isolation and unique environments. Island systems are key natural laboratories for testing theory in ecology and evolution. However, despite their potential usefulness for research, a quantitative description of island environments and an environmental classification are still lacking. Here, we prepare a standardized dataset and perform a comprehensive global environmental characterization for 17,883 of the world’s marine islands >1 km2 (∼98% of total island area). We consider area, temperature, precipitation, seasonality in temperature and precipitation, past climate change velocity, elevation, isolation, and past connectivity—key island characteristics and drivers of ecosystem processes. We find that islands are significantly cooler, wetter, and less seasonal than mainlands. Constrained by their limited area, they show less elevational heterogeneity. Wet temperate climates are more prevalent on islands, whereas desert climates are comparatively rare. We use ordination and clustering to characterize islands in multidimensional environmental space and to delimit island ecoregions, which provides unique insights into the environmental configuration and diversity of the world’s islands. Combining ordination and classification together with global environmental data in a common framework opens up avenues for a more integrative use of islands in biogeography, macroecology, and conservation. To showcase possible applications of the presented data, we predict vascular plant species richness for all 17,883 islands based on statistically derived environment–richness relationships. PMID:24003123

[Potential distribution and geographic characteristics of wild populations of Vanilla planifolia (Orchidaceae) Oaxaca, Mexico].

PubMed

Hernandez-Ruiz, Jesús; Herrera-Cabrera, B Edgar; Delgado-Alvarado, Adriana; Salazar-Rojas, Víctor M; Bustamante-Gonzalez, Ángel; Campos-Contreras, Jorge E; Ramírez-Juarez, Javier

2016-03-01

Wild specimens of Vanilla planifolia represent a vital part of this resource primary gene pool, and some plants have only been reported in Oaxaca, Mexico. For this reason, we studied its geographical distribution within the state, to locate and describe the ecological characteristics of the areas where they have been found, in order to identify potential areas of establishment. The method comprised four stages: 1) the creation of a database with herbarium records, 2) the construction of the potential distribution based on historical herbarium records for the species, using the model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and 22 bioclimatic variables as predictors; 3) an in situ systematic search of individuals, based on herbarium records and areas of potential distribution in 24 municipalities, to determine the habitat current situation and distribution; 4) the description of the environmental factors of potential ecological niches generated by MaxEnt. A review of herbarium collections revealed a total of 18 records of V. planifolia between 1939 and 1998. The systematic search located 28 plants distributed in 12 sites in 95 364 Km(2). The most important variables that determined the model of vanilla potential distribution were: precipitation in the rainy season (61.9 %), soil moisture regime (23.4 %) and precipitation during the four months of highest rainfall (8.1 %). The species potential habitat was found to be distributed in four zones: wet tropics of the Gulf of Mexico, humid temperate, humid tropical, and humid temperate in the Pacific. Precipitation oscillated within the annual ranges of 2 500 to 4 000 mm, with summer rains, and winter precipitation as 5 to 10 % of the total. The moisture regime and predominating climate were udic type I (330 to 365 days of moisture) and hot humid (Am/A(C) m). The plants were located at altitudes of 200 to 1 190 masl, on rough hillsides that generally make up the foothills of mountain systems, with altitudes of 1 300 to 2 500 masl. In natural conditions, distribution of the species is not limited to high evergreen forests, since it was also found in mountain mesophyll and tropical evergreen forests. The location of new specimens of V. planifolia in its wild condition reduces the potential distribution area by 66 %. This area is fragmented into three geographically separated areas. Habitat reduction was due to the increased number of located plants that define the environmental conditions into a more accurate level. Conservation actions can thus be designed and implemented, focusing on more specific areas within the state of Oaxaca, Mexico.

Hot spots, hot moments and time-span of changes in drivers and their responses on carbon cycling in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomelleri, E.; Forkel, M.; Fuchs, R.; Jung, M.; Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Weber, U.

2012-12-01

The objective of this study is to provide a complete quantitative assessment of the annual to decadal variability, hotspots of changes and the temporal magnitude of regional trends and variability for the main drivers of carbon cycle like climate and land use and their responses for Europe. For this purpose we used an harmonized climatic data set (ERA Interim and WATCH) and an historical land-use change reconstruction (HILDAv1, Fuchs in prep.). Both the data sets cover the period 1900-2010 and have a 0.25 deg spatial resolution. As driver response we used two different empirically up-scaled GPP fields: the first (MTE) obtained by the application of model trees (Jung et al. 2009) and a second (LUE) based on a light use efficiency model (Tomelleri in prep.). Both the approaches are based on the up-scaling of Fluxnet observations. The response fields have monthly temporal resolution and are limited to the period 1982-2011. We estimated break-points in time series of driver and response variables based on the method of Bai and Perron (2003) to identify changes in trends. This method was implemented in Verbesselt et al. 2010 and applied by deJong et al. 2011 to detect phenological and abrupt changes and trends in vegetation activity based on satellite-derived vegetation index time series. The analysis of drivers and responses allowed to identify the dominant factors driving the biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange. The synchronous analysis of climatic drivers and land use change allowed us to explain most of the temporal and spatial variability showing that in the regions and time period where the most land use change occurred the climatic drivers are not sufficient to explain trends and oscillation in carbon cycling. The comparison of our analysis for the up-scaling methods shows some agreement: we found inconsistency in the spatial and temporal patterns in regions where the Fluxnet network is less dense. This can be explained by the conceptual difference in the up-scaling methods: while one is on pixel basis (MTE) the other (LUE) is up-scaling model parameters by bioclimatic regions. Our study shows the value of up-scaling methods for understanding the spatial-temporal variability of carbon cycling and how these are a valuable tool for spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, the use of climatic drivers and land-use change demonstrated the need of taking natural and anthropogenic drivers into consideration for explaining trends and oscillations. Possibly a further analysis including detailed management practices for forestry and agriculture would help in explaining the remaining variance. References: Bai, J., Perron, P.: Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 2003. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., and Bondeau, A.: Towards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2009. Verbesselt, J., Hyndman, R., Newnham, G., Culvenor, D.: Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment,114(1), 2010. de Jong, R., Verbesselt, J., Schaepman, M.E., Bruin, S.: Trend changes in global greening and browning: contribution of short-term trends to longer-term change. Global Change Biology, 18, 2011.

Diversity, Host Specialization, and Geographic Structure of Filarial Nematodes Infecting Malagasy Bats.

PubMed

Ramasindrazana, Beza; Dellagi, Koussay; Lagadec, Erwan; Randrianarivelojosia, Milijaona; Goodman, Steven M; Tortosa, Pablo

2016-01-01

We investigated filarial infection in Malagasy bats to gain insights into the diversity of these parasites and explore the factors shaping their distribution. Samples were obtained from 947 individual bats collected from 52 sites on Madagascar and representing 31 of the 44 species currently recognized on the island. Samples were screened for the presence of micro- and macro-parasites through both molecular and morphological approaches. Phylogenetic analyses showed that filarial diversity in Malagasy bats formed three main groups, the most common represented by Litomosa spp. infecting Miniopterus spp. (Miniopteridae); a second group infecting Pipistrellus cf. hesperidus (Vespertilionidae) embedded within the Litomosoides cluster, which is recognized herein for the first time from Madagascar; and a third group composed of lineages with no clear genetic relationship to both previously described filarial nematodes and found in M. griveaudi, Myotis goudoti, Neoromicia matroka (Vespertilionidae), Otomops madagascariensis (Molossidae), and Paratriaenops furculus (Hipposideridae). We further analyzed the infection rates and distribution pattern of Litomosa spp., which was the most diverse and prevalent filarial taxon in our sample. Filarial infection was disproportionally more common in males than females in Miniopterus spp., which might be explained by some aspect of roosting behavior of these cave-dwelling bats. We also found marked geographic structure in the three Litomosa clades, mainly linked to bioclimatic conditions rather than host-parasite associations. While this study demonstrates distinct patterns of filarial nematode infection in Malagasy bats and highlights potential drivers of associated geographic distributions, future work should focus on their alpha taxonomy and characterize arthropod vectors.

Estimation of the tourism climate in the Hunter Region, Australia, in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Shiue, Ivy; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-07-01

Existing tourism-related climate information and evaluation are typically based on mean monthly conditions of air temperature and precipitation and do not include thermal perception and other climate parameters relevant for tourists. Here, we quantify climate based on the climate facets relevant to tourism (thermal, physical, aesthetical), and apply the results to the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). This paper presents bioclimatic and tourism climatological conditions in the Hunter Region-one of Australia's most popular tourist destinations. In the Hunter Region, generally, temperatures below 15°C occur from April through October, temperatures less than 25°C are expected throughout the whole year, while humidity sits around 50%. As expected, large differences between air temperature and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) were clearly identified. The widest differences were seen in summer time rather than in the winter period. In addition, cold stress was observed less than 10% of the time in winter while around 40-60% of heat stress was observed in summer time. This correlates with the highest numbers of international visitors, who usually seek a warmer weather, at the beginning of summer time (November and December) and also to the number of domestic visitors, who tend to seek cooler places for recreation and leisure, in late summer (January-March). It was concluded that thermal bioclimate assessment such as PET and CTIS can be applied in the Hunter region, and that local governments and the tourism industry should take an integrated approach to providing more relevant weather and climate information for both domestic and international tourists in the near future.