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Sample records for bird population trends

  1. Monitoring bird population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Slusher, John P.; Hinckley, Thomas M.

    1974-01-01

    The Breeding Bird Survey monitors annually the breeding populations of nearly 500 bird species by means of 2,000 random roadside counts of fifty 3-minute stops each. Results are computer-analyzed by State and Province, physiographic and geographic regions, and for the entire continent. Short- and long-term population changes are detected and maps showing distribution and relative abundance are prepared. A computerized bibliography of breeding bird censuses currently in preparation will permit retrieval of bird density data by bird species, plant community, and geographic location. These two programs will greatly facilitate management for nongame species.

  2. Population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Robbins, C.S.; Martin, Thomas E.; Finch, Deborah M.

    1995-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Most Neotropical migrant birds are difficult to count accurately and are moderately common over large breeding distributions. Consequently, little historical information exists on their large-scale population changes, and most of this information is anecdotal. Surveys begun in this century such as Breeding Bird Censuses and Christmas Bird Counts have the potential to provide this information, but only the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) achieves the extensive continental coverage necessary to document population changes for most Neotropical migrant birds. Conservationists and ecologists have begun to use BBS data to estimate population trends, but there is still widespread confusion over exactly what these data show regarding population changes. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge regarding population changes in Neotropical migrant birds and the methods used to analyze these changes. The primary emphasis is on the BBS (Robbins et al. 1986) because this survey provides the best available data for estimating trends of Neotropical migrants on a continental scale. To address questions about methods of analyzing survey data, we review and compare some alternative methods of analyzing BBS data. We also discuss the effectiveness of the BBS in sampling Neotropical migrant species, and review possibilities for use of alternative data sets to verify trends from the BBS.

  3. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  4. Double sampling to estimate density and population trends in birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, Jonathan; Earnst, Susan L.

    2002-01-01

    We present a method for estimating density of nesting birds based on double sampling. The approach involves surveying a large sample of plots using a rapid method such as uncorrected point counts, variable circular plot counts, or the recently suggested double-observer method. A subsample of those plots is also surveyed using intensive methods to determine actual density. The ratio of the mean count on those plots (using the rapid method) to the mean actual density (as determined by the intensive searches) is used to adjust results from the rapid method. The approach works well when results from the rapid method are highly correlated with actual density. We illustrate the method with three years of shorebird surveys from the tundra in northern Alaska. In the rapid method, surveyors covered ~10 ha h-1 and surveyed each plot a single time. The intensive surveys involved three thorough searches, required ~3 h ha-1, and took 20% of the study effort. Surveyors using the rapid method detected an average of 79% of birds present. That detection ratio was used to convert the index obtained in the rapid method into an essentially unbiased estimate of density. Trends estimated from several years of data would also be essentially unbiased. Other advantages of double sampling are that (1) the rapid method can be changed as new methods become available, (2) domains can be compared even if detection rates differ, (3) total population size can be estimated, and (4) valuable ancillary information (e.g. nest success) can be obtained on intensive plots with little additional effort. We suggest that double sampling be used to test the assumption that rapid methods, such as variable circular plot and double-observer methods, yield density estimates that are essentially unbiased. The feasibility of implementing double sampling in a range of habitats needs to be evaluated.

  5. American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

    PubMed Central

    Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

    2014-01-01

    Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

  6. Oak Ridge Reservation Bird Records and Population Trends

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, W. Kelly; Giffen, Neil R.; Wade, Murray; Haines, Angelina; Evans, James W.; Jett, Robert Trent

    2014-11-01

    Bird data have been collected through surveys, environmental assessments, and other observations for decades in the Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park, located on the US Department of Energy s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in East Tennessee. Birds were recorded in a variety of habitats, including wetlands, interior forests, grasslands, ponds, corridors, forest edges, and more. Most of the information was gathered from waterfowl surveys conducted from 1990 to 2008, from Partners in Flight (PIF) breeding bird surveys conducted from 1995 to 2013, and from past publications and research on Reservation birds. We have also included our own observations and, in a few instances, credible observations of ORR birds of which we have been made aware through eBird or discussions with area ornithologists and bird watchers. For the period 1950 2014, we were able to document 228 species of birds on the ORR. Several of these species are known from historic records only, while others were not known to have ever occurred on the Reservation until recently. This report does not include PIF breeding bird data from the 2014 season or any records after July 2014. Twenty-two species approximately 10% of the total number of species observed have state-listed status in Tennessee as endangered, threatened, or in need of management. Of the 228 species we documented, 120 are believed to be breeding birds on the ORR.

  7. Oak Ridge Reservation Bird Records and Population Trends

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, W. K.; Giffen, N. R.; Wade, M. C.; Haines, A. M.; Evans, J. W.; Jett, R. T.

    2014-09-01

    Bird data have been collected through surveys, environmental assessments, and other observations for decades in the Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park, located on the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in East Tennessee. Birds were recorded in a variety of habitats, including wetlands, interior forests, grasslands, ponds, corridors, forest edges, and more. Most of the information was gathered from waterfowl surveys conducted from 1990 to 2008, from Partners in Flight (PIF) breeding bird surveys conducted from 1995 to 2013, and from past publications and research on Reservation birds. We have also included our own observations and, in a few instances, credible observations of ORR birds of which we have been made aware through eBird or discussions with area ornithologists and bird watchers. For the period 1950-2014, we were able to document 228 species of birds on the ORR. Several of these species are known from historic records only, while others were not known to have ever occurred on the Reservation until recently. This report does not include PIF breeding bird data from the 2014 season or any records after July 2014. Twenty-two species--approximately 10% of the total number of species observed--have state-listed status in Tennessee as endangered, threatened, or in need of management. Of the 228 species we documented, 120 are believed to be breeding birds on the ORR.

  8. Population trends of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Jeffrey, John J.; Woodworth, Bethany L.

    2010-01-01

    The Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge was established to protect native Hawaiian forest birds, particularly endangered species. Management for forest restoration on the refuge has consisted mainly of removing feral ungulates, controlling invasive alien plants, and reforesting former pastures. To assess effects of this habitat improvement for forest birds, we estimated density annually by distance sampling and examined population trends for native and alien passerines over the 21 years since the refuge was established. We examined long-term trends and recent short-term trajectories in three study areas: (1) reforested pastureland, (2) heavily grazed open forest that was recovering, and (3) lightly grazed closed forest that was relatively intact. Three species of native birds and two species of alien birds had colonized the reforested pasture and were increasing. In the open forest, densities of all eight native species were either stable or increasing. Long-term trends for alien birds were also generally stable or increasing. Worryingly, however, during the most recent 9 years, in the open forest trajectories of native species were decreasing or inconclusive, but in the reforested pasture they generally increased. The closed forest was surveyed in only the most recent 9 years, and trajectories of native species there were mixed. Overall, long-term population trends in Hakalau are stable or increasing, contrasting with declines in most other areas of Hawai'i over the same period. However, more recent mixed results may indicate emergent problems for this important bird area.

  9. Population trends of North American sea ducks based on Christmas Bird Count and Breeding Bird Survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Niven, D.K.; Sauer, J.R.; Butcher, G.S.

    2005-01-01

    Due to the difficulty of conducting range-wide surveys of either breeding or wintering populations, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze sea duck data from the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966-2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species. Where sufficient data exist, we compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the USGS Breeding Bird Survey. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

  10. Population trends of Black Terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.

    1997-01-01

    Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. These long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

  11. Population trends of black terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.

    1997-01-01

    Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. The long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

  12. Wood duck population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.; Fredrickson, Leigh H.; Burger, George V.; Havera, Stephen P.; Graber, David A.; Kirby, Ronald E.; Taylor, T. Scott

    1990-01-01

    The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been conducted yearly since 1966, and can be used to describe relative population density and trends of birds in North America north of Mexico. Wood ducks (Air sponsa) are difficult to survey using conventional waterfowl monitoring techniques, but a large portion of their range is surveyed by the BBS. Wood ducks are detected at low densities on many BBS routes, and population trends can be estimated for most regions. Populations have been increasing throughout North America since 1966, but statistically significant increases generally occurred only in the early (1966-78) part of the period. Roadside survey methodology used in the BBS has limitations that make it inefficient as a survey technique for wood ducks, and we recommend using modified methodologies that specifically survey wood duck habitat.

  13. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  14. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.

    PubMed

    Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindström, Ake

    2010-12-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

  15. Population trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Niven, D.K.; Sauer, J.R.; Butcher, G.S.

    2005-01-01

    Relative to other waterfowl, sea ducks are not well understood, yet evidence from a variety of analyses suggests that as many as 10 of the 15 species of North American sea ducks may be declining in population. However, because of the difficulty of conducting surveys of breeding populations and the lack of range-wide winter surveys, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze Audubon Christmas Bird Count data using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966 - 2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species (the White-winged Scoter; -3.7%/yr). We compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the midwinter waterfowl survey conducted by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

  16. Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

    PubMed

    Eglington, Sarah M; Pearce-Higgins, James W

    2012-01-01

    Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

  17. Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

    PubMed

    Eglington, Sarah M; Pearce-Higgins, James W

    2012-01-01

    Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations. PMID:22479304

  18. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska.

    PubMed

    Lance, B K; Irons, D B; Kendall, S J; McDonald, L L

    2001-04-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwaka Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilize shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  19. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska.

    PubMed

    Lance, B K; Irons, D B; Kendall, S J; McDonald, L L

    2001-04-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwaka Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilize shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  20. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    PubMed

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  1. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

    PubMed Central

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory. PMID:26426901

  2. New approaches to the analysis of population trends in land birds: Comment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

    1997-01-01

    James et al. (1996, Ecology 77:13-27) used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to examine geographic variability in patterns of population change for 26 species of wood warblers. They emphasized the importance of evaluating nonlinear patterns of change in bird populations, proposed LOESS-based non-parametric and semi-parametric analyses of BBS data, and contrasted their results with other analyses, including those of Robbins et al. (1989, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 86: 7658-7662) and Peterjohn et al. (1995, Pages 3-39 in T. E. Martin and D. M. Finch, eds. Ecology and management of Neotropical migratory birds: a synthesis and review of critical issues. Oxford University Press, New York.). In this note, we briefly comment on some of the issues that arose from their analysis of BBS data, suggest a few aspects of the survey that should inspire caution in analysts, and review the differences between the LOESS-based procedures and other procedures (e.g., Link and Sauer 1994). We strongly discourage the use of James et al.'s completely non-parametric procedure, which fails to account for observer effects. Our comparisons of estimators adds to the evidence already present in the literature of the bias associated with omitting observer information in analyses of BBS data. Bias resulting from change in observer abilities should be a consideration in any analysis of BBS data.

  3. Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata, white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii, Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra, black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus, and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi. The endangered Mariana crow (x̄  =  81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI  =  815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba, rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae, and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca. Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low

  4. Population trends of the loggerhead shrike from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Yosef, Reuven; Lohrer, Fred E.

    1995-01-01

    North American Breeding Bird Survey data indicated a general decline in Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) populations during 1966-1993. At the continental level, shrikes declined at an average rate of 2.9% per year. Average rates of regional declines varied from 2.5-3.4% annually. These declines were prevalent in most states, provinces, and physiographic strata. Only the Edwards Plateau, High Plains, and Great Plains Roughlands strata, and Colorado, Louisiana, Montana, and South Dakota apparently have stable breeding populations. Severe winter weather during 1976-1979 may have contributed to this decline in the eastern half of the continent, combining with other factors during the winter and breeding seasons that have been implicated in the rangewide decline of this species.

  5. Northern bobwhite, gray partridge, and ring-necked pheasant population trends (1966-1988) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Church, Kevin E.; Warner, Richard E.; Brady, Stephen J.

    1990-01-01

    We use North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population trends for 1966-1988 for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus), and gray partridge (Perdix perdix). Bobwhite populations have undergone widespread declines, pheasant have undergone major declines in eastern North America with mixed trends elsewhere, gray partridge have undergone primarily population increases. We present suggestions for further uses of these data.

  6. Population trends of grassland birds in North America are linked to the prevalence of an agricultural epizootic in Europe.

    PubMed

    Nocera, Joseph J; Koslowsky, Hannah M

    2011-03-22

    Globalization of trade has dramatic socioeconomic effects, and, intuitively, significant ecological effects should follow. However, few quantitative examples exist of the interrelationship of globalization, socioeconomics, and ecological patterns. We present a striking illustration of a cascade in which bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE; "mad cow disease") outbreaks in Europe exerted pressure on global beef markets, subsequently affecting North American hayfields and grassland bird populations. We examined competing models, which linked the prevalence of BSE in five focal countries, volume of beef exports to those countries from North America, and the amount of hayfield harvested and the abundance of grassland birds in North America. We found that (i) imports from North America increased 1 y after BSE outbreaks; (ii) probably because fewer cattle remained, the hay harvest in North America was reduced 2 y after the outbreak; (iii) the reduced hay harvest yielded a positive response in grassland bird populations 3 y after the outbreak. PMID:21383197

  7. Population trends of grassland birds in North America are linked to the prevalence of an agricultural epizootic in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Nocera, Joseph J.; Koslowsky, Hannah M.

    2011-01-01

    Globalization of trade has dramatic socioeconomic effects, and, intuitively, significant ecological effects should follow. However, few quantitative examples exist of the interrelationship of globalization, socioeconomics, and ecological patterns. We present a striking illustration of a cascade in which bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE; “mad cow disease”) outbreaks in Europe exerted pressure on global beef markets, subsequently affecting North American hayfields and grassland bird populations. We examined competing models, which linked the prevalence of BSE in five focal countries, volume of beef exports to those countries from North America, and the amount of hayfield harvested and the abundance of grassland birds in North America. We found that (i) imports from North America increased 1 y after BSE outbreaks; (ii) probably because fewer cattle remained, the hay harvest in North America was reduced 2 y after the outbreak; (iii) the reduced hay harvest yielded a positive response in grassland bird populations 3 y after the outbreak. PMID:21383197

  8. Monitoring Canadian bird populations with winter counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dunn, E.H.; Sauer, J.R.; Dunn, E.H.; Cadman, M.D.; Falls, J.B.

    1997-01-01

    Two winter bird surveys in Canada have range-wide population monitoring potential: Christmas Bird Counts (CBCs) and Project FeederWatch (PFW). CBC trends are shown to be correlated to Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends, whether or not part of the winter range lies outside the CBC coverage area. Some species are poorly covered by this survey (e.g. seabirds, nocturnal species, and Neotropical migrants). Only eight Canadian breeding species that are not sampled by the BBS have their winter range well-covered by the CBC, but the CBC should be valuable as an independent source of trend data for many more species, including northern nesters with only marginal BBS coverage. More work is needed to show whether PFW trends match BBS trends; even if they do, PFW covers relatively few species, and most are monitored already by the BBS and/or CBC

  9. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Adam C; Hudson, Marie-Anne R; Downes, Constance M; Francis, Charles M

    2015-01-01

    North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines. PMID:26147572

  10. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Adam C.; Hudson, Marie-Anne R.; Downes, Constance M.; Francis, Charles M.

    2015-01-01

    North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species’ breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines. PMID:26147572

  11. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Adam C; Hudson, Marie-Anne R; Downes, Constance M; Francis, Charles M

    2015-01-01

    North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  12. Access to bird population data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, E.; Peterjohn, B.G.; Koneff, M.D.

    2001-01-01

    Access to bird population data is critical for effective conservation planning and implementation. Although a tremendous volume of baseline data exists, it is often diffusely distributed and inaccessible to the resource manager and decision maker. A mechanism that facilitates assembly, documentation and delivery of avian data in a user-friendly manner is needed in order to integrate bird-related information resources across agencies and organizations. To address this fundamental need, the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII), in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey's Patuxent Wildlife Research Center and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, is developing a web-based interactive system that will focus on access to bird population and habitat data used in bird management and conservation. This system, known as the NBII Bird Conservation Node, will support planning and evaluation of bird conservation activities within the context of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI), a framework for collaboration among organizations interested in bird conservation across North America. Initial development of the NBII Bird Conservation Node will focus on creating a prototype mapping application that will provide interactive access to data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the Colonial Waterbird Survey, the Breeding Waterfowl Population and Habitat Survey, and the Atlantic Flyway Mid-winter Waterfowl Survey. This prototype mapping application, to be available on-line at http://www.nbii.gov by Sep 2001, will lay the foundation for establishment of a Migratory Bird Data Center at Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, and will provide an opportunity for linking to and establishing partnerships with other sources of bird population and habitat data available over the Internet.

  13. Bird Populations in Fernbank Forest: MIGRANT SPECIES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmalz, Georgann

    1991-01-01

    This article discusses fragmented forests in general and provides arrival/departure data about migratory birds collected at Fernbank Forest which is located within metropolitan Atlanta. The data indicate that population trends for selected species have not changed over 19 years of migration recordings within this small, but important, fragmented…

  14. Population trends of quails in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Church, K.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.; Church, K.E.; Daley, T.V.

    1993-01-01

    We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1966-91) to estimate distribution, relative abundance, and populatiori trends of quails. Population trends in grassland/shrub birds sympatric with northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) were also examined. Northern bobwhite and scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) populations have declined since 1966. Rates of decline for these quails have increased during the past decade. California quail (C. californica), Gambel's quail (C. gambeliI), and mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) populations have been stable over the long-term (1966-91). However, the short-term (1982-91) trend for California quail is positive, whereas Gambel's quail appear to be declining. Patterns in trends indicate similar factors may be negatively affecting breeding populations of grassland/shrub birds throughout the bobwhite's range. We discuss plausible hypotheses to explain population trends and recommend future action.

  15. Marine bird and sea otter population abundance of Prince william sound, Alaska: Trends following the t/v Exxon Valdez oil spill, 1989-93. Restoration project 93045. Exxon Valdez oil spill restoration project final report

    SciTech Connect

    Agler, B.A.; Seiser, P.E.; Kendall, S.J.; Irons, D.B.

    1994-05-01

    We conducted small boat surveys to estimate marine bird and sea otter (Enhdra lutris) populations in Prince William Sound, Alaska during March and July 1993, using methods developed for the 1989-91 surveys (Klosiewski and Laing 1994). During 1993, we recorded 65 birds and 13 mammal species. We estimated that 402,760 + or - 167,697 marine birds were in the Sound during March 1993, an increase of >200,000 birds over 1990 and 1991. To examine trends in our marine bird population estimates from 1989-93, we assumed that in the absence of oil spill effects, population estimates in the oiled zone would change at the same rate as those in the unoiled zone. For Prince William Sound as a whole, we examined population trends from 1989-1993, using regression analyses. We also examined the relative abundance of the species groups seen in Prince William Sound from 1972 to 1993. Sea otter populations in 1993 were estimated at 6,813 + or - 1,861 for March and 8,216 + or - 2,435 for July. We found no difference in the rate of change between the oiled and unoiled zones from 1989-93 for either the March or July population estimates. There was no significant trend in the total number of sea otters in Prince William Sound from 1989-93.

  16. Some Current Population Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taeuber, Conrad

    Population trends in the 1960's and early 1970's are examined in this 1972 speech in terms of overall national trends, the growth of metropolitan areas, the rural population, geographic shifts, internal migration, the black population, and living arrangements. It is noted that population growth in the 1960's was unevenly distributed within age…

  17. Winter population trends of selected songbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Root, T.L.; McDaniel, Larry

    1995-01-01

    For this study we used the CBC data to examine population trends of songbirds with ranges that apparently are limited by lower temperatures in the North. We chose these species to track populations of birds that could be in peril in the future. These birds potentially will be more quickly affected by changing climate than other birds, and we need baseline information on them to document possible consequences of global climatic change. The species that are indeed declining need to be monitored because the possible synergistic effects of declining populations and changing climate could result in local and even regional extinctions.

  18. Bias of animal population trend estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geissler, P.H.; Link, W.A.; Wegman, E.J.; Gantz, D.T.; Miller, J.J.

    1988-01-01

    A computer simulation study of the population trend estimator used for the Mourning Dove Call-Count Survey, Woodcock Singing Ground Survey, Breeding Bird Survey and other surveys concluded that the estimator had negligible bias in most situations but that observer covariables should not be used with less than five years of data. With rare species (e.g. two birds per route), at least five years should be used. The estimator is seriously biased towards not detecting population changes with very rare species (e.g. 0.3 birds per route). Other technical recommendations are made.

  19. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

    PubMed

    Meyer, Carolyn B; Meyer, Joseph S; Francisco, Alex B; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4-46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on

  20. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Carolyn B.; Meyer, Joseph S.; Francisco, Alex B.; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed

  1. Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population change for bird conservation regions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Fallon, J.E.; Johnson, R.

    2003-01-01

    Conservation planning requires information at a variety of geographic scales, and it is often unclear whether surveys designed for other purposes will provide appropriate information for management at various scales. We evaluated the use of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to meet information needs for conservation planning in Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). The BBS originally was developed to provide regional estimates for states, provinces, physiographic regions, and larger areas. Many analyses have used physiographic regions within states/provinces as strata. We evaluated potential consequences of using BCRs instead of the BBS physiographic regions, testing for spatial differences in sample intensity within states and provinces. We reclassified the BBS survey routes to BCRs and conducted route regression trend (interval-specific population change) analyses for a variety of regions and time intervals. Our results were similar to those based on traditional BBS regions and suggest minimal consequences of the reclassification for the BBS sample. We summarized population change within BCRs and assessed the efficiency of the BBS in estimating population change for 421 species surveyed. As would be expected from an omnibus survey, many species appeared to be poorly monitored by the BBS, with 42% of species encountered at <1 bird per route from the survey, and 28% of trend estimates too imprecise to detect a 3% per year change over 35 years. Our results indicated that the quality of the survey for estimation of population change varied among BCRs. Population trends of species were heterogeneous over space and time, varying among BCRs for 76% of species and over time for 39% of species. Regional heterogeneity also existed in trends of species groups from the BBS. While 49% of all species in the survey had increasing populations, grassland breeding birds showed consistent declines, with only 18% of species having positive trend estimates. Bird Conservation

  2. Killdeer population trends in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanzenbacher, Peter; Haig, Susan M.

    2001-01-01

    Killdeers (Charadrius vociferus) are considered a common species that inhabits a wide range of wetland and upland habitats throughout much of North America, yet recent information suggests that they may be declining regionally, if not throughout much of their range. To address this issue, we examined population trends of this species at multiple spatial and temporal scales using data from two major avian survey efforts, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Christmas Bird Count (CBC). A summary of BBS trends indicates significant long-term (1966a??1996) declines in breeding populations across North America. Geographic regions driving this decline were Canada, western survey regions of the continent, and select southeastern states. In contrast, over the same time period, Killdeer populations increased in some midwestern states, particularly those in the Great Lakes region. Recent BBS trends (1986a??1996) indicate highly significant declines across most areas of North America surveyed. Trends from CBC data (1959a??1988) indicate declines at a smaller spatial scale. While the ability of current major avian survey efforts to detect population trends for Killdeer and other shorebird species warrants further examination, significant negative trends in Killdeer populations indicates the need to further investigate the status of this species.

  3. Winter bird population studies and project prairie birds for surveying grassland birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Hamel, P.B.; Woodrey, M.S.

    2008-01-01

    We compared 2 survey methods for assessing winter bird communities in temperate grasslands: Winter Bird Population Study surveys are area-searches that have long been used in a variety of habitats whereas Project Prairie Bird surveys employ active-flushing techniques on strip-transects and are intended for use in grasslands. We used both methods to survey birds on 14 herbaceous reforested sites and 9 coastal pine savannas during winter and compared resultant estimates of species richness and relative abundance. These techniques did not yield similar estimates of avian populations. We found Winter Bird Population Studies consistently produced higher estimates of species richness, whereas Project Prairie Birds produced higher estimates of avian abundance for some species. When it is important to identify all species within the winter bird community, Winter Bird Population Studies should be the survey method of choice. If estimates of the abundance of relatively secretive grassland bird species are desired, the use of Project Prairie Birds protocols is warranted. However, we suggest that both survey techniques, as currently employed, are deficient and recommend distance- based survey methods that provide species-specific estimates of detection probabilities be incorporated into these survey methods.

  4. Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Gill, Jennifer A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jones, Victoria R; Franco, Aldina M A

    2016-03-01

    Declines in migratory species are a pressing concern worldwide, but the mechanisms underpinning these declines are not fully understood. We hypothesised that species with greater within-population variability in migratory movements and destinations, here termed 'migratory diversity', might be more resilient to environmental change. To test this, we related map-based metrics of migratory diversity to recent population trends for 340 European breeding birds. Species that occupy larger non-breeding ranges relative to breeding, a characteristic we term 'migratory dispersion', were less likely to be declining than those with more restricted non-breeding ranges. Species with partial migration strategies (i.e. overlapping breeding and non-breeding ranges) were also less likely to be declining than full migrants or full residents, an effect that was independent of migration distance. Recent rates of advancement in Europe-wide spring arrival date were greater for partial migrants than full migrants, suggesting that migratory diversity may also help facilitate species responses to climate change. PMID:26807694

  5. Global fertility and population trends.

    PubMed

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends.

  6. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  7. Monitoring grizzly bear population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Knight, R.R.; Blanchard, B.M.

    1986-01-01

    A simple different equation model was developed to provide additional perspective on observed mortality and trend data on Yellowstone grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis). Records of mortalities of adult females from 1959 to 1985 were utilized, in conjunction with data on females with cubs. The overall downward trend of observed numbers of females with cubs generally agrees with the model calculations but does not adequately reflect mortality from 1970 to 1974. The model may be useful in developing a composite index of population trend.

  8. Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Abul-basher, M M

    1985-01-01

    Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends. PMID:12280834

  9. Monitoring bird populations in small geographic areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dunn, E.H.; Bart, J.; Collins, B.T.; Craig, B.; Dale, B.; Downes, C.M.; Francis, C.M.; Woodley, S.; Zorn, P.

    2006-01-01

    Numerous methods exist for monitoring bird populations, and there is a large literature describing them. There are few resources, however, that provide comprehensive advice on every step of organizing and carrying out a survey, from the early stages of planning to final use of the data. Even fewer resources are designed to meet the needs of a wide variety of potential users, from amateurs interested in change of bird life in a local study preserve to professionals testing hypotheses on the response of birds to habitat management, although much of the advice should be the same for every monitoring program. Whether survey objectives are very modest or rigorously scientific, samples must be sufficiently numerous and well distributed to provide meaningful results, and the survey should be well designed to ensure that the money and effort going into it are not wasted. This document is intended to be a complete resource for anyone planning to organize monitoring of noncolonial landbirds within a relatively small geographic area (e.g., from the size of a woodlot to a large park). The first of its two parts provides background explaining the importance of good study design and gives specific advice on all aspects of project planning and execution of high-quality data collection for the purpose of hypothesis testing. The second part is self-contained and nontechnical and describes complete plans for a site-specific checklist survey, suitable for addressing monitoring questions frequently asked by amateurs and for involvement of volunteers in data collection. Throughout are references to additional resources, from background literature to sources of existing survey protocols, analysis software, and tools for archiving data.

  10. Power to detect trends in abundance of secretive marsh birds: effects of species traits and sampling effort

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steidl, Robert J.; Conway, Courtney J.; Litt, Andrea R.

    2013-01-01

    Standardized protocols for surveying secretive marsh birds have been implemented across North America, but the efficacy of surveys to detect population trends has not been evaluated. We used survey data collected from populations of marsh birds across North America and simulations to explore how characteristics of bird populations (proportion of survey stations occupied, abundance at occupied stations, and detection probability) and aspects of sampling effort (numbers of survey routes, stations/route, and surveys/station/year) affect statistical power to detect trends in abundance of marsh bird populations. In general, the proportion of survey stations along a route occupied by a species had a greater relative effect on power to detect trends than did the number of birds detected per survey at occupied stations. Uncertainty introduced by imperfect detection during surveys reduced power to detect trends considerably, but across the range of detection probabilities for most species of marsh birds, variation in detection probability had only a minor influence on power. For species that occupy a relatively high proportion of survey stations (0.20), have relatively high abundances at occupied stations (2.0 birds/station), and have high detection probability (0.50), ≥40 routes with 10 survey stations per route surveyed 3 times per year would provide an 80% chance of detecting a 3% annual decrease in abundance after 20 years of surveys. Under the same assumptions but for species that are less common, ≥100 routes would be needed to achieve the same power. Our results can help inform the design of programs to monitor trends in abundance of marsh bird populations, especially with regards to the amount of sampling effort necessary to meet programmatic goals.

  11. Modeling Trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey Data: A Spatially Explicit Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John; Pardieck, Keith; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area. PMID:24349141

  12. Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

  13. Monitoring bird population trends in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.; Purroy, F.J.

    1983-01-01

    Se ofrece un nuevo metodo para computar las oscilaciones demograficas de las aves a lo largo de los anos. Con los datos suministrados por el proyecto 'Aves nidificantes en Norteamerica' , se indican en la Tabla 1 las pautas de cambio numerico de una serie seleccionada de aves holarticas.

  14. Temporal Trends in Metal Pollution: Using Bird Excrement as Indicator

    PubMed Central

    Berglund, Åsa M. M.; Rainio, Miia J.; Eeva, Tapio

    2015-01-01

    Past mining and smelting activities have resulted in metal polluted environments all over the world, but long-term monitoring data is often scarce, especially in higher trophic levels. In this study we used bird (Parus major and Ficedula hypoleuca) excrement to monitor metal pollution in the terrestrial environment following 16 years of continuously reduced emissions from a copper/nickel smelter in Finland. In the early 1990s, lead and cadmium concentrations dropped significantly in excrement, but the reduction did not directly reflect the changes in atmospheric emission from the smelter. This is likely due to a continuous contribution of metals also from the soil pool. We conclude that bird excrement can be used to assess changes in the environment as a whole but not specifically changes in atmospheric emission. Inter-annual variation in excrement concentration of especially copper and nickel demonstrates the importance of long-term monitoring to discern significant trends. PMID:25680108

  15. Temporal trends in metal pollution: using bird excrement as indicator.

    PubMed

    Berglund, Åsa M M; Rainio, Miia J; Eeva, Tapio

    2015-01-01

    Past mining and smelting activities have resulted in metal polluted environments all over the world, but long-term monitoring data is often scarce, especially in higher trophic levels. In this study we used bird (Parus major and Ficedula hypoleuca) excrement to monitor metal pollution in the terrestrial environment following 16 years of continuously reduced emissions from a copper/nickel smelter in Finland. In the early 1990s, lead and cadmium concentrations dropped significantly in excrement, but the reduction did not directly reflect the changes in atmospheric emission from the smelter. This is likely due to a continuous contribution of metals also from the soil pool. We conclude that bird excrement can be used to assess changes in the environment as a whole but not specifically changes in atmospheric emission. Inter-annual variation in excrement concentration of especially copper and nickel demonstrates the importance of long-term monitoring to discern significant trends. PMID:25680108

  16. Temporal trends in metal pollution: using bird excrement as indicator.

    PubMed

    Berglund, Åsa M M; Rainio, Miia J; Eeva, Tapio

    2015-01-01

    Past mining and smelting activities have resulted in metal polluted environments all over the world, but long-term monitoring data is often scarce, especially in higher trophic levels. In this study we used bird (Parus major and Ficedula hypoleuca) excrement to monitor metal pollution in the terrestrial environment following 16 years of continuously reduced emissions from a copper/nickel smelter in Finland. In the early 1990s, lead and cadmium concentrations dropped significantly in excrement, but the reduction did not directly reflect the changes in atmospheric emission from the smelter. This is likely due to a continuous contribution of metals also from the soil pool. We conclude that bird excrement can be used to assess changes in the environment as a whole but not specifically changes in atmospheric emission. Inter-annual variation in excrement concentration of especially copper and nickel demonstrates the importance of long-term monitoring to discern significant trends.

  17. Bird population density estimated from acoustic signals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dawson, D.K.; Efford, M.G.

    2009-01-01

    Many animal species are detected primarily by sound. Although songs, calls and other sounds are often used for population assessment, as in bird point counts and hydrophone surveys of cetaceans, there are few rigorous methods for estimating population density from acoustic data. 2. The problem has several parts - distinguishing individuals, adjusting for individuals that are missed, and adjusting for the area sampled. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) is a statistical methodology that addresses jointly the second and third parts of the problem. We have extended SECR to use uncalibrated information from acoustic signals on the distance to each source. 3. We applied this extension of SECR to data from an acoustic survey of ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla density in an eastern US deciduous forest with multiple four-microphone arrays. We modelled average power from spectrograms of ovenbird songs measured within a window of 0??7 s duration and frequencies between 4200 and 5200 Hz. 4. The resulting estimates of the density of singing males (0??19 ha -1 SE 0??03 ha-1) were consistent with estimates of the adult male population density from mist-netting (0??36 ha-1 SE 0??12 ha-1). The fitted model predicts sound attenuation of 0??11 dB m-1 (SE 0??01 dB m-1) in excess of losses from spherical spreading. 5.Synthesis and applications. Our method for estimating animal population density from acoustic signals fills a gap in the census methods available for visually cryptic but vocal taxa, including many species of bird and cetacean. The necessary equipment is simple and readily available; as few as two microphones may provide adequate estimates, given spatial replication. The method requires that individuals detected at the same place are acoustically distinguishable and all individuals vocalize during the recording interval, or that the per capita rate of vocalization is known. We believe these requirements can be met, with suitable field methods, for a significant

  18. Evaluation of Two Methods to Estimate and Monitor Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Sandra L.; Pollard, Katherine S.

    2008-01-01

    Background Effective management depends upon accurately estimating trends in abundance of bird populations over time, and in some cases estimating abundance. Two population estimation methods, double observer (DO) and double sampling (DS), have been advocated for avian population studies and the relative merits and short-comings of these methods remain an area of debate. Methodology/Principal Findings We used simulations to evaluate the performances of these two population estimation methods under a range of realistic scenarios. For three hypothetical populations with different levels of clustering, we generated DO and DS population size estimates for a range of detection probabilities and survey proportions. Population estimates for both methods were centered on the true population size for all levels of population clustering and survey proportions when detection probabilities were greater than 20%. The DO method underestimated the population at detection probabilities less than 30% whereas the DS method remained essentially unbiased. The coverage probability of 95% confidence intervals for population estimates was slightly less than the nominal level for the DS method but was substantially below the nominal level for the DO method at high detection probabilities. Differences in observer detection probabilities did not affect the accuracy and precision of population estimates of the DO method. Population estimates for the DS method remained unbiased as the proportion of units intensively surveyed changed, but the variance of the estimates decreased with increasing proportion intensively surveyed. Conclusions/Significance The DO and DS methods can be applied in many different settings and our evaluations provide important information on the performance of these two methods that can assist researchers in selecting the method most appropriate for their particular needs. PMID:18728775

  19. North American Bird Banding and quantitative population ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Tautin, J.; Davis, William E.=; Jackson, Jerome A.; Tautin, John

    2008-01-01

    Early bird-banding programs in North America were developed to provide descriptions of bird migration and movement patterns. This initial interest in description quickly evolved into more quantitative interests in two ways. There was (1) interest in quantifying migration and movement patterns, and (2) rapid recognition that re-observations of marked birds provided information about other parameters relevant to population dynamics. These included survival rate, recruitment rate, and population size. The evolution of methods for estimating population size, survival, recruitment, and movement is reviewed and we show it to be closely tied to bird-banding data. These estimation methods have been used with bird-banding data to draw important inferences about evolutionary ecology, population ecology, and population management. Illustrative examples of such inferences are provided.

  20. Combining Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data to evaluate seasonal components of population change in Northern Bobwhite

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

    2008-01-01

    Annual surveys of wildlife populations provide information about annual rates of change in populations but provide no information about when such changes occur. However, by combining data from 2 annual surveys, conducted in different parts of the year, seasonal components of population change can be estimated. We describe a hierarchical model for simultaneous analysis of 2 continent-scale monitoring programs. The Christmas Bird Count is an early winter survey, whereas the North American Breeding Bird Survey is conducted in June. Combining information from these surveys permits estimation of seasonal population variance components and improves estimation of long-term population trends. The composite analysis also controls for survey-specific sampling effects. We applied the model to estimation of population change in northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). Over the interval 1969?2004, bobwhite populations declined, with trend estimate of -3.56% per year (95% CI = [-3.80%, -3.32%]) in the surveyed portion of their range. Our analysis of seasonal population variance components indicated that northern bobwhite populations changed more in the winter and spring portion of the year than in the summer and fall portion of the year.

  1. An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Gregory, Richard D.; Willis, Stephen G.; Jiguet, Frédéric; Voříšek, Petr; Klvaňová, Alena; van Strien, Arco; Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Couvet, Denis; Green, Rhys E.

    2009-01-01

    Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20th and late 21st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming. PMID:19259270

  2. An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

    PubMed

    Gregory, Richard D; Willis, Stephen G; Jiguet, Frédéric; Vorísek, Petr; Klvanová, Alena; van Strien, Arco; Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C; Couvet, Denis; Green, Rhys E

    2009-01-01

    Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th) and late 21(st) centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

  3. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  4. Bird populations on the Island of Tinian: persistence despite wholesale loss of native forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Amidon, Frederick A.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.

    2012-01-01

    Bird habitat on the island of Tinian, Mariana Islands, has been substantially altered, and only around 5% of the island has native forest today. The modern bird fauna is likely to be a subset of the original avifauna where only species tolerant to native forest loss and human disturbance have survived. Avian surveys were conducted on the island in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current densities and abundances of the remaining species, and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. During the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 11 species. Five of the nine native species and one alien bird have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopusroseicapilla), Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), and Tinian Monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae)—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two birds (one native and one alien) were considered relatively stable. Only five birds, including the Tinian Monarch, showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Increased development on Tinian may result in increases in habitat clearing and expansion of human-dominated habitats, and declines in some bird populations would likely continue or be exacerbated with these actions. Expanded development activities on Tinian would also mean increased cargo movement between Guam and Tinian, elevating the probability of transporting the Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) to Tinian, which would lead to precipitous decreases and extinctions.

  5. Interannual variation and long-term trends in proportions of resident individuals in partially migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Kalle; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Hokkanen, Tatu; Rintala, Jukka; Piha, Markus; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2016-03-01

    Partial migration - a part of a population migrates and another part stays resident year-round on the breeding site - is probably the most common type of migration in the animal kingdom, yet it has only lately garnered more attention. Theoretical studies indicate that in partially migratory populations, the proportion of resident individuals (PoR) should increase in high latitudes in response to the warming climate, but empirical evidence exists for few species. We provide the first comprehensive overview of the environmental factors affecting PoR and the long-term trends in PoR by studying 27 common partially migratory bird species in Finland. The annual PoR values were calculated by dividing the winter bird abundance by the preceding breeding abundance. First, we analysed whether early-winter temperature, winter temperature year before or the abundance of tree seeds just before overwintering explains the interannual variation in PoR. Secondly, we analysed the trends in PoR between 1987 and 2011. Early-winter temperature explained the interannual variation in PoR in the waterbirds (waterfowl and gulls), most likely because the temperature affects the ice conditions and thereby the feeding opportunities for the waterbirds. In terrestrial species, the abundance of seeds was the best explanatory variable. Previous winter's temperature did not explain PoR in any species, and thus, we conclude that the variation in food availability caused the interannual variation in PoR. During the study period, PoR increased in waterbirds, but did not change in terrestrial birds. Partially migratory species living in physically contrasting habitats can differ in their annual and long-term population-level behavioural responses to warming climate, possibly because warm winter temperatures reduce ice cover and improve the feeding possibilities of waterbirds but do not directly regulate the food availability for terrestrial birds.

  6. Interannual variation and long-term trends in proportions of resident individuals in partially migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Kalle; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Hokkanen, Tatu; Rintala, Jukka; Piha, Markus; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2016-03-01

    Partial migration - a part of a population migrates and another part stays resident year-round on the breeding site - is probably the most common type of migration in the animal kingdom, yet it has only lately garnered more attention. Theoretical studies indicate that in partially migratory populations, the proportion of resident individuals (PoR) should increase in high latitudes in response to the warming climate, but empirical evidence exists for few species. We provide the first comprehensive overview of the environmental factors affecting PoR and the long-term trends in PoR by studying 27 common partially migratory bird species in Finland. The annual PoR values were calculated by dividing the winter bird abundance by the preceding breeding abundance. First, we analysed whether early-winter temperature, winter temperature year before or the abundance of tree seeds just before overwintering explains the interannual variation in PoR. Secondly, we analysed the trends in PoR between 1987 and 2011. Early-winter temperature explained the interannual variation in PoR in the waterbirds (waterfowl and gulls), most likely because the temperature affects the ice conditions and thereby the feeding opportunities for the waterbirds. In terrestrial species, the abundance of seeds was the best explanatory variable. Previous winter's temperature did not explain PoR in any species, and thus, we conclude that the variation in food availability caused the interannual variation in PoR. During the study period, PoR increased in waterbirds, but did not change in terrestrial birds. Partially migratory species living in physically contrasting habitats can differ in their annual and long-term population-level behavioural responses to warming climate, possibly because warm winter temperatures reduce ice cover and improve the feeding possibilities of waterbirds but do not directly regulate the food availability for terrestrial birds. PMID:26718017

  7. Long-term trends in breeding birds in an old-growth Adirondack forest and the surrounding region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNulty, S.A.; Droege, S.; Masters, R.D.

    2008-01-01

    Breeding bird populations were sampled between 1954 and 1963, and 1990 and 2000 in an old-growth forest, the Natural Area of Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Trends were compared with data from regional North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and from a forest plot at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Trends for 22 species in the HWF Natural Area were negative, eight were positive, and one was zero; 20 were significant. Fifteen of 17 long-distance migrants declined, whereas 7 of 14 short-distance migrants and permanent residents declined. Most (74%) HWF Natural Area species, despite differences in sampling periods and local habitat features, matched in sign of trend when compared to Adirondack BBS routes, 61% matched northeastern BBS routes, and 71% matched eastern United States BBS routes, while 66% matched Hubbard Brook species. The agreement in population trends suggests that forest interior birds, especially long-distance migrants, are affected more by regional than local factors. The analysis indicated that bird trends generated from BBS routes may not be as biased toward roads as previously suggested.

  8. Assessing vulnerability of marine bird populations to offshore wind farms.

    PubMed

    Furness, Robert W; Wade, Helen M; Masden, Elizabeth A

    2013-04-15

    Offshore wind farms may affect bird populations through collision mortality and displacement. Given the pressures to develop offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to assess population-level impacts on protected marine birds. Here we refine an approach to assess aspects of their ecology that influence population vulnerability to wind farm impacts, also taking into account the conservation importance of each species. Flight height appears to be a key factor influencing collision mortality risk but improved data on flight heights of marine birds are needed. Collision index calculations identify populations of gulls, white-tailed eagles, northern gannets and skuas as of particularly high concern in Scottish waters. Displacement index calculations identify populations of divers and common scoters as most vulnerable to population-level impacts of displacement, but these are likely to be less evident than impacts of collision mortality. The collision and displacement indices developed here for Scottish marine bird populations could be applied to populations elsewhere, and this approach will help in identifying likely impacts of future offshore wind farms on marine birds and prioritising monitoring programmes, at least until data on macro-avoidance rates become available. PMID:23454414

  9. Assessing vulnerability of marine bird populations to offshore wind farms.

    PubMed

    Furness, Robert W; Wade, Helen M; Masden, Elizabeth A

    2013-04-15

    Offshore wind farms may affect bird populations through collision mortality and displacement. Given the pressures to develop offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to assess population-level impacts on protected marine birds. Here we refine an approach to assess aspects of their ecology that influence population vulnerability to wind farm impacts, also taking into account the conservation importance of each species. Flight height appears to be a key factor influencing collision mortality risk but improved data on flight heights of marine birds are needed. Collision index calculations identify populations of gulls, white-tailed eagles, northern gannets and skuas as of particularly high concern in Scottish waters. Displacement index calculations identify populations of divers and common scoters as most vulnerable to population-level impacts of displacement, but these are likely to be less evident than impacts of collision mortality. The collision and displacement indices developed here for Scottish marine bird populations could be applied to populations elsewhere, and this approach will help in identifying likely impacts of future offshore wind farms on marine birds and prioritising monitoring programmes, at least until data on macro-avoidance rates become available.

  10. Recent population trends of the eastern bluebird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.

    1990-01-01

    North American Breeding Bird Survey data for the period 1966-1987 indicate that Eastern Bluebird (Sialia sialis) populations declined during the 1970s, primarily in association with either severe winters or severe spring storms. In recent years, bluebird populations have increased to levels similar to those observed during the first year (1966) of the survey. Survey results suggest that climate has an important role in affecting short-term population declines in bluebirds.

  11. Hawaii Forest Bird Interagency Database Project: Collecting, Understanding, and Sharing Population Data on Hawaiian Forest Birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pratt, Thane K.; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Camp, Richard J.; Gorresen, P. Marcos

    2006-01-01

    The forest birds of the Hawaiian Islands are distinguished by the diversity of endemic forms derived from a small number of ancestral colonists. However, the avifauna has been decimated by human activities both before and after Western contact. At least 71 species or subspecies disappeared before the arrival of Capt. James Cook in 1778, and an additional 24 went extinct after 1778, of which 11 were lost since the 1960s alone. Many of the remaining Hawaiian bird populations are declining or are in danger of extinction. Vigorous efforts to survey and monitor bird populations over the past 3 decades have generated considerable information from which to assess the current status of the Hawaiian forest birds.

  12. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, M.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds.

  13. Bird population and habitat surveys in urban areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeGraaf, R.M.; Geis, A.D.; Healy, P.A.

    1991-01-01

    Breeding bird populations in six habitats in Columbia. MD, were studied to develop procedures suitable for measuring bird use of residential areas and to identify habitat characteristics that define the distribution of various common bird species. A procedure to measure bird use based on 4-min transect counts on plots measuring 91 m ? 91 m proved better than point counts. Transect counts reduced many of the problems associated with counting birds in urban areas, such as varying noise and visibility. Eighty percent of observations were recorded in the first 4 min. Habitat measurement procedures were examined also. It was found that a subsample of woody tree and shrub crown volumes made on 0.2 ha was highly correlated with similar measures made on 0.8-ha plots.

  14. Do Major Roads Reduce Gene Flow in Urban Bird Populations?

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Shuping; Suo, Mingli; Liu, Shenglin; Liang, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Background Although the negative effects of roads on the genetics of animal populations have been extensively reported, the question of whether roads reduce gene flow in volant, urban bird populations has so far not been addressed. In this study, we assess whether highways decreased gene flow and genetic variation in a small passerine bird, the tree sparrow (Passer montanus). Methodology We assessed genetic differences among tree sparrows (Passer montanus) sampled at 19 sites within Beijing Municipality, China, using 7 DNA microsatellites as genetic markers. Results AMOVA showed that genetic variation between sites, between urban and rural populations, and between opposite sides of the same highway, were very weak. Mantel tests on all samples, and on urban samples only, indicated that the age and number of highways, and the number of ordinary roads, were uncorrelated with genetic differences (FST) among tree sparrows from different urban sites. Birds sampled at urban sites had similar levels of genetic diversity to those at rural sites. There was, however, evidence of some weak genetic structure between urban sites. Firstly, there were significant genetic differences (FST) between birds from opposite sides of the same highway, but no significant FST values between those from sites that were not separated by highways. Secondly, birds from eleven urban sites had loci that significantly deviated from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium but no such deviation was found in birds from rural sites. Conclusion We cannot, therefore, conclusively reject the hypothesis that highways have no effect on the gene flow of tree sparrow populations. Furthermore, since the significance of these results may increase with time, we suggested that research on the influence of highways on gene flow in urban bird populations needs to be conducted over several decades. PMID:24204724

  15. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining.

    PubMed

    Møller, Anders Pape; Rubolini, Diego; Lehikoinen, Esa

    2008-10-21

    Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. However, some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding sufficiently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occurrence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched compared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatch may be characterized by declining populations. Here we relate changes in spring migration timing by 100 European bird species since 1960, considered as an index of the phenological response of bird species to recent climate change, to their population trends. Species that declined in the period 1990-2000 did not advance their spring migration, whereas those with stable or increasing populations advanced their migration considerably. On the other hand, population trends during 1970-1990 were predicted by breeding habitat type, northernmost breeding latitude, and winter range (with species of agricultural habitat, breeding at northern latitudes, and wintering in Africa showing an unfavorable conservation status), but not by change in migration timing. The association between population trend in 1990-2000 and change in migration phenology was not confounded by any of the previously identified predictors of population trends in birds, or by similarity in phenotype among taxa due to common descent. Our findings imply that ecological factors affecting population trends can change over time and suggest that ongoing climatic changes will increasingly threaten vulnerable migratory bird species, augmenting their extinction risk.

  16. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining.

    PubMed

    Møller, Anders Pape; Rubolini, Diego; Lehikoinen, Esa

    2008-10-21

    Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. However, some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding sufficiently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occurrence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched compared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatch may be characterized by declining populations. Here we relate changes in spring migration timing by 100 European bird species since 1960, considered as an index of the phenological response of bird species to recent climate change, to their population trends. Species that declined in the period 1990-2000 did not advance their spring migration, whereas those with stable or increasing populations advanced their migration considerably. On the other hand, population trends during 1970-1990 were predicted by breeding habitat type, northernmost breeding latitude, and winter range (with species of agricultural habitat, breeding at northern latitudes, and wintering in Africa showing an unfavorable conservation status), but not by change in migration timing. The association between population trend in 1990-2000 and change in migration phenology was not confounded by any of the previously identified predictors of population trends in birds, or by similarity in phenotype among taxa due to common descent. Our findings imply that ecological factors affecting population trends can change over time and suggest that ongoing climatic changes will increasingly threaten vulnerable migratory bird species, augmenting their extinction risk. PMID:18849475

  17. Seasonal distribution of bird populations at the Patuxent Research Refuge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, R.E.; Cope, J.B.; Robbins, C.S.; Brainerd, J.W.

    2000-01-01

    A detailed study of seasonal changes in bird populationswas made at the Patuxent Research Refuge, located between Bowie and Laurel, Maryland during the years 1936-1949. The history of the Refuge is reviewed and its physical and biological characteristlcs summarized.. The methods of study used during the investigation mcluded: periodic censuses of a representative 304-acre study area over a two-year period; a census of the breeding population of the entire. Refuge during one year; detailed population studies of representative habitats during the breeding season; censuses of the wintering population of. the entire Refuge during two years; general surveys of wintering populations for seven years; and general observations of seasonal changes in bird populatlons over a fourteen-year period, including data from an extensive banding program and from many special types of censuses. The phenology of the Refuge is described in conslderable detail throughout the year, with special attention given to major fluctuatIons in bIrd populations as correlated with climatic changes and with seasonal aspectlon. of the vegetation. The component specIes of birds m the more important migration waves are listed. Figures approximating the Refuge breeding and wmtering populations are given, while indices representing the relative abundance of bird populations, based on figures from the two-year seasonal populatlon study, were obtained for the entire year. The greatest variety of species as well as the greatest number of individuals occurred on the Refuge during the migration .periods in spring and fall, the variety of species being slightly higher in spring than in fa!l, while the population of individuals was considerably higher in fall. Wmtering and breeding populations were low and relatively stable compared to the populations at other seasons.The ecological affinities of the bird populations differed greatly from one season to another. Species characteristic of edge habitats were much

  18. [Population policies and population trends in China].

    PubMed

    Pressat, R

    1983-04-01

    Although relatively little has been known about the Chinese population in recent centuries, figures are available for more remote times. In the year 2 the Chinese population was recorded at 60 million. In 1928, when the last pre-Revolution census was conducted, China had a population of 475 million. The population was not believed to have grown very much due to internal disorders, war, and foreigh invasion, but the 1953 census counted 582 million to which were added 18 million to include Taiwan and overseas Chinese. The figure of 600 million appears to mark the beginning of concern over demographic problems. The crude birth rate was estimated at 37/1000 and the death rate at 17/1000. The 1953 census was conducted with Soviet aid and was given some publicity. The period 1953-58 was marked by a mortality decline and a steady fertility rate, but the population is believed to have declined from 647 million in 1958 to 643 million in 1962, the end of the Great Leap Forward. A census suppressed until recently gave a total of 694 million for 1964. Population growth was considerable from 1961-66. In the 1st part of the Cultural Revolution from 1966-70, no effort was made to control population growth; in 1971, the crude birth rate was estimated at 30-35/1000, the mortality rate was 8/1000, and the growth rate was 2.6%. 1971-79 marked the 1st phase of birth limitation, which became more pressing with time. The population was counted at 1 billion 8 million in 1982, with a birth rate of 21/1000, a death rate of 6/1000, and a growth rate of 1.5%. Because of China's comprehensive system of population registration, the results of the 1982 census were not completely unexpected. Wide differences in growth rates were noted between provinces, and the minorities grew at a faster rate than the Han majority. Immediately after the Revolution, population was relatively neglected in China in favor of greater attention to economic growth. The 1st warnings about the consequences of overly

  19. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

    PubMed Central

    Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations. PMID:27582180

  20. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations.

  1. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Megan D; Craigie, Ian D; Harrison, Luke B; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations. PMID:27582180

  2. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Megan D; Craigie, Ian D; Harrison, Luke B; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations.

  3. Temporal Variation in Population Size of European Bird Species: Effects of Latitude and Marginality of Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Cuervo, José J.; Møller, Anders P.

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction. PMID:24147048

  4. Temporal variation in population size of European bird species: effects of latitude and marginality of distribution.

    PubMed

    Cuervo, José J; Møller, Anders P

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction.

  5. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  6. Estimating population trends with a linear model: technical comments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

  7. [Recent population trends in the Swiss Alps].

    PubMed

    Billet, J; Rougier, H

    1984-01-01

    Recent demographic trends in the Alpine areas of Switzerland are examined. Areas of population loss and gain are identified, and the importance of tourism for areas experiencing population growth is established. Efforts to support the demographic and economic viability of mountain areas are described.

  8. The Soviet Union: Population Trends and Dilemmas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feshbach, Murray

    1982-01-01

    Recent trends and differentials among the Soviet Union's 15 republics and major nationalities are reviewed, focusing on fertility, mortality and urbanization, the prospect for labor supplies and military manpower, emigration, and projected population growth to 2000. Estimated at 270 million as of mid-1982, the Soviet population is currently…

  9. Using Christmas Bird Count data in analysis of population change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

    2002-01-01

    The scientific credibility of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) results depend on the development and implementation of appropriate methods of statistical analysis. The key to any successful analysis of CBC data is to begin with a careful review of how the limitations of the data are likely to influence the results of the analysis, then to choose methods of analysis that accommodate as much as possible the limitations of the survey. For our analyses of CBC data, we develop a flexible model for effort adjustment and use information from the data to guide the selection of the best model. We include geographic structuring to accommodate the regional variation in number of samples, use a model that allows for overdispersed poisson data appropriate for counts, and employ empirical Bayes procedures to accommodate differences in quality of information in regional summaries. This generalized linear model approach is very flexible, and can be applied to a variety of studies focused on factors influencing wintering bird populations. In particular, the model can be easily modified to contain covariates, allowing for assessment of associations between CBC counts and winter weather, disturbance, and a variety of other environmental factors. These new survey analysis methods have added value in that they provide insights into changes in survey design that can enhance the value of the information. The CBC has been extremely successful as a tool for increasing public interest in birding and bird conservation. Use of the information for bird conservation creates new demands on quality of information, and it is important to maintain a dialogue between users of the information, information needs for the analyses, and survey coordinators and participants. Our work as survey analysts emphasizes the value and limitations of existing data, and provides some indications of what features of the survey could be modified to make the survey a more reliable source of bird population data. Surveys

  10. Demographic routes to variability and regulation in bird populations

    PubMed Central

    Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Coulson, Tim; Grant, Peter R.; Visser, Marcel E.; Brommer, Jon E.; Rosemary Grant, B.; Gustafsson, Lars; Hatchwell, Ben J.; Jerstad, Kurt; Karell, Patrik; Pietiäinen, Hannu; Roulin, Alexandre; Røstad, Ole W.; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2016-01-01

    There is large interspecific variation in the magnitude of population fluctuations, even among closely related species. The factors generating this variation are not well understood, primarily because of the challenges of separating the relative impact of variation in population size from fluctuations in the environment. Here, we show using demographic data from 13 bird populations that magnitudes of fluctuations in population size are mainly driven by stochastic fluctuations in the environment. Regulation towards an equilibrium population size occurs through density-dependent mortality. At small population sizes, population dynamics are primarily driven by environment-driven variation in recruitment, whereas close to the carrying capacity K, variation in population growth is more strongly influenced by density-dependent mortality of both juveniles and adults. Our results provide evidence for the hypothesis proposed by Lack that population fluctuations in birds arise from temporal variation in the difference between density-independent recruitment and density-dependent mortality during the non-breeding season. PMID:27328710

  11. Demographic routes to variability and regulation in bird populations.

    PubMed

    Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Coulson, Tim; Grant, Peter R; Visser, Marcel E; Brommer, Jon E; Rosemary Grant, B; Gustafsson, Lars; Hatchwell, Ben J; Jerstad, Kurt; Karell, Patrik; Pietiäinen, Hannu; Roulin, Alexandre; Røstad, Ole W; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2016-01-01

    There is large interspecific variation in the magnitude of population fluctuations, even among closely related species. The factors generating this variation are not well understood, primarily because of the challenges of separating the relative impact of variation in population size from fluctuations in the environment. Here, we show using demographic data from 13 bird populations that magnitudes of fluctuations in population size are mainly driven by stochastic fluctuations in the environment. Regulation towards an equilibrium population size occurs through density-dependent mortality. At small population sizes, population dynamics are primarily driven by environment-driven variation in recruitment, whereas close to the carrying capacity K, variation in population growth is more strongly influenced by density-dependent mortality of both juveniles and adults. Our results provide evidence for the hypothesis proposed by Lack that population fluctuations in birds arise from temporal variation in the difference between density-independent recruitment and density-dependent mortality during the non-breeding season. PMID:27328710

  12. Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

    1992-01-01

    Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

  13. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    PubMed

    Magera, Anna M; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B; Lotze, Heike K

    2013-01-01

    Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of

  14. Recovery Trends in Marine Mammal Populations

    PubMed Central

    Magera, Anna M.; Mills Flemming, Joanna E.; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B.; Lotze, Heike K.

    2013-01-01

    Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased

  15. Forest management under uncertainty for multiple bird population objectives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, C.T.; Plummer, W.T.; Conroy, M.J.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in a set of alternative models. The models generate testable predictions about the response of populations to management, and monitoring data provide the basis for assessing these predictions and informing future management decisions. To illustrate these principles, we examine forest management at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, where management attention is focused on the recovery of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population. However, managers are also sensitive to the habitat needs of many non-target organisms, including Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and other forest interior Neotropical migratory birds. By simulating several management policies on a set of-alternative forest and bird models, we found a decision policy that maximized a composite response by woodpeckers and Wood Thrushes despite our complete uncertainty regarding system behavior. Furthermore, we used monitoring data to update our measure of belief in each alternative model following one cycle of forest management. This reduction of uncertainty translates into a reallocation of model influence on the choice of optimal decision action at the next decision opportunity.

  16. Loss of sagebrush ecosystems and declining bird populations in the Intermountain West: Priority research issues and information needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    2002-01-01

    Sagebrush lands in the Intermountain West are declining rapidly in quality and extent. Consequently, populations of many bird species dependent on these ecosystems also are declining. The greater sage-grouse has been petitioned for listing as a threatened and endangered species, and other species of sagebrush-obligate birds have special conservation status in most states. We identified the primary issues and information needs during a multi-agency workshop, conducted in response to concerns by management agencies related to declining bird population trends in sagebrush habitats. Priority needs were to (1) obtain a better understanding of bird response to habitat and landscape features, (2) develop monitoring designs to sample habitats and bird populations, (3) determine the effects of land use on sagebrush habitats and dependent bird species, and (4) identify linkages between breeding and wintering ranges. This agenda will identify causes and mechanisms of population declines in birds dependent on sagebrush ecosystems and will lead to better management of the ecosystems upon which they depend.

  17. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemyslaw; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P.B.; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G.; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; Van Strien, Arco; van Turnhout, Chris A.M.; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

  18. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    PubMed

    Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. PMID:27034371

  19. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    PubMed

    Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

  20. Forest bird and fruit bat populations on Sarigan, Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fancy, Steven G.; Craig, Robert J.; Kessler, Curt T.

    1999-01-01

    We conducted the first quantitative surveys of forest bird and bat populations on the uninhabited island of Sarigan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Severe habitat degradation has occurred on Sarigan because of overgrazing by introduced goats and pigs. Planting of coconut palms (Cocos nucifera) for copra production has also eliminated much of the island’s native forest. We recorded five species of forest birds on Sarigan: Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse laperouse), Micronesian Starling (Aplonis opaca), Collared Kingfisher (Halcyon chloris), and White-throated Ground Dove (Gallicolumba xanthonura). Estimated population sizes (95% confidence interval) in 1997 were 1,821 (1,617–2,026) for Micronesian Honeyeater, 677 (545–810) for Micronesian Megapode, 497 (319–675) for Micronesian Starling, 107 (82–131) for Collared Kingfisher, and 170 (101–238) for Mariana Fruit Bat (Pteropus mariannus).

  1. Forest Bird Distribution, Density and Trends in the Ka'u Region of Hawai'i Island

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.

    2007-01-01

    An accurate and current measure of population status and trend is necessary for conservation and management efforts. Scott and Kepler (1985) provided a comprehensive review of the status of native Hawaiian birds based on the extensive Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (HFBS) of the main islands (Scott et al. 1986). At that time, they documented declining populations and decreasing ranges for most species, and the extinction of several species over the previous 50 years. Many native bird species continue to decline throughout Hawai`i (Camp et al. In review, Gorresen et al. In prep.). The focus of this study is the mid-to-high elevation rainforest on the southeast windward slopes of Mauna Loa Volcano (Figure 1). Known as Ka`u, the region encompasses forest lands protected by Kamehameha Schools, The Nature Conservancy, Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HVNP), and the State of Hawai'i's Ka`u Forest Reserve, Kapapala Forest Reserve and Kapapala Cooperative Game Management Area,. Together these lands support one of three main concentrations of native forest birds on the Hawai`i Island (the other two being centered on the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge and Kulani-Keauhou area in the north and central windward part of the island, respectively.) Because this region harbors important populations of native and endangered forest birds in some of the best remaining forest habitat on the island, it has been a focus of forest bird surveys since the 1970s. The Ka`u region was first quantitatively surveyed in 1976 by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986). Surveys were conducted by State of Hawai`i Division of Forestry and Wildlife in 1993 and 2002 and by the U.S. National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey in 2004 and 2005. In this report, we present analyses of the density, distribution and trends of native and introduced forest bird within the Ka`u region of Hawai`i Island. The analyses cover only those species with sufficient detections to model detection

  2. Status and trends of the land bird avifauna on Tinian and Aguiguan, Mariana Islands.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Amidon, Fred; Marshall, Ann P.; Kremer, Shelly; Laut, Megan

    2012-01-01

    Avian surveys were conducted on the islands of Tinian and Aguiguan, Marianas Islands, in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current baseline densities and abundances and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. On Tinian, during the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 12 species. Half of the 10 native species—Yellow Bittern (Ixobrychus sinensis), White-throated Ground-Dove (Gallicolumba xanthonura), Collared Kingfisher (Todiramphus chloris), Rufous Fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), and Micronesian Starling (Aplonis opaca)—and one alien bird—Island Collared-Dove (Streptopelia bitorquata)—have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopus roseicapilla), Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), and Tinian Monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae)—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two native birds—White Tern (Gygis alba) and Bridled White-eye (Zosterops saypani)—and one alien bird—Eurasian Tree Sparrow (Passer montanus)—were considered relatively stable. Only five birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Tinian Monarch, Rufous Fantail, and Bridled White-eye—showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Tinian Monarch was found in all habitat types, with the greatest monarch densities observed in limestone forest, secondary forest, and tangantangan (Leucaena leucocephala) thicket and the smallest densities found in open fields and urban/residential habitats. On Aguiguan, 19 species were detected on one or both of the surveys (1982 and 2008), and abundance estimates were produced for nine native and one alien species. Densities for seven of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Collared Kingfisher, Rufous Fantail, Bridled White-eye, Golden White-eye (Cleptornis marchei), and Micronesian Starling—and the alien bird— Island

  3. USING POPULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE RISK IN POPULATION OF BIRDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Wildlife populations are exposed to varying habitat structure and quality, as well as an array of human-induced environmental stressors. Predicting the consequences to a real population of one perturbation (e.g. a pesticide application) without considering other human activities ...

  4. Noninvasive methods for monitoring bear population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, Katherine

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey began a grizzly bear research project in 2009 in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) of northwestern Montana. This work uses hair collection and DNA analysis methods similar to those used in the 2004 Northern Divide Grizzly Bear Project. However, instead of producing a snapshot of population size, the objectives of this new work are to estimate population growth rates by collecting hair at natural bear rubs along trails, roads, and fence and power lines. This approach holds promise of providing reliable estimates of population trends in an efficient, cost-effective, and unobtrusive way.

  5. The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas.

    PubMed

    Feshbach, M

    1982-08-01

    Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a

  6. Behaviour-related DRD4 polymorphisms in invasive bird populations.

    PubMed

    Mueller, J C; Edelaar, P; Carrete, M; Serrano, D; Potti, J; Blas, J; Dingemanse, N J; Kempenaers, B; Tella, J L

    2014-06-01

    It has been suggested that individual behavioural traits influence the potential to successfully colonize new areas. Identifying the genetic basis of behavioural variation in invasive species thus represents an important step towards understanding the evolutionary potential of the invader. Here, we sequenced a candidate region for neophilic/neophobic and activity behaviour - the complete exon 3 of the DRD4 gene - in 100 Yellow-crowned bishops (Euplectes afer) from two invasive populations in Spain and Portugal. The same birds were scored twice for activity behaviour while exposed to novel objects (battery or slice of apple) in captivity. Response to novel objects was repeatable (r = 0.41) within individuals. We identified two synonymous DRD4 SNPs that explained on average between 11% and 15% of the phenotypic variance in both populations, indicating a clear genetic component to the neophilic/neophobic/activity personality axis in this species. This consistently high estimated effect size was mainly due to the repeated measurement design, which excludes part of the within-individual nongenetic variance in the response to different novel objects. We suggest that the alternative alleles of these SNPs are likely introduced from the original population and maintained by weak or antagonistic selection during different stages of the invasion process. The identified genetic variants have not only the potential to serve as genetic markers of the neophobic/neophilic/activity personality axis, but may also help to understand the evolution of behaviour in these invasive bird populations.

  7. Times to extinction for small populations of large birds.

    PubMed Central

    Pimm, S L; Diamond, J; Reed, T M; Russell, G J; Verner, J

    1993-01-01

    A major practical problem in conservation biology is to predict the survival times-"lifetimes"-for small populations under alternative proposed management regimes. Examples in the United States include the 'Alala (Hawaiian Crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) and Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). To guide such decisions, we analyze counts of all crow, owl, and hawk species in the most complete available data set: counts of bird breeding pairs on 14 European islands censused for 29-66 consecutive years. The data set yielded 129 records for analysis. We define the population ceiling as the highest number of breeding pairs observed from colonization to extinction, within a consecutive series of counts for a given species on a given island. The resulting distributions of population lifetimes as a function of population size prove to be highly skewed: most small populations disappear quickly, but a few last for a long time. Median (i.e., 50th percentile) lifetimes are calculated as only 1-5 yr for hawk, owl, and crow populations with ceilings of one or two breeding pairs. As expected if demographic accidents are the main cause of extinction for small populations, lifetimes rise by a factor of 3-4 for each additional pair up to three pairs. They rise more slowly thereafter. These observations suggest that lifetimes of the 'Alala (now reduced to about three pairs in the wild), and of populations of Northern Spotted Owl in the smallest forest fragments, will be short unless active management is implemented. PMID:11607439

  8. Times to extinction for small populations of large birds.

    PubMed

    Pimm, S L; Diamond, J; Reed, T M; Russell, G J; Verner, J

    1993-11-15

    A major practical problem in conservation biology is to predict the survival times-"lifetimes"-for small populations under alternative proposed management regimes. Examples in the United States include the 'Alala (Hawaiian Crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) and Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). To guide such decisions, we analyze counts of all crow, owl, and hawk species in the most complete available data set: counts of bird breeding pairs on 14 European islands censused for 29-66 consecutive years. The data set yielded 129 records for analysis. We define the population ceiling as the highest number of breeding pairs observed from colonization to extinction, within a consecutive series of counts for a given species on a given island. The resulting distributions of population lifetimes as a function of population size prove to be highly skewed: most small populations disappear quickly, but a few last for a long time. Median (i.e., 50th percentile) lifetimes are calculated as only 1-5 yr for hawk, owl, and crow populations with ceilings of one or two breeding pairs. As expected if demographic accidents are the main cause of extinction for small populations, lifetimes rise by a factor of 3-4 for each additional pair up to three pairs. They rise more slowly thereafter. These observations suggest that lifetimes of the 'Alala (now reduced to about three pairs in the wild), and of populations of Northern Spotted Owl in the smallest forest fragments, will be short unless active management is implemented. PMID:11607439

  9. Effects of DDT on bird population of scrub forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Stewart, R.E.

    1949-01-01

    An oil spray of DDT was applied at the rate of five pounds per acre to a 90-acre tract of 5-year-old scrub and sapling growth at Beltsville, Maryland. Bird population studies were carried on in a 30-acre plot at the center of the sprayed area, and in a 30-acre check area of the same habitat one-half mile away. Of the five commonest species in the sprayed area, the Maryland yellowthroat, prairie warbler, and house wren were reduced 80 per cent, and the red-eyed towhee was apparently reduced 35 per cent; while no appreciable change in the numbers of yellow-breasted chats was noted. The total decrease for the five commonest species, which represented 77 per cent of the original population, was 65 per cent.

  10. Recent Trends in Bird Abundance on Rhode Island Salt Marshes

    EPA Science Inventory

    Salt marsh habitat is under pressure from development on the landward side, and sea level rise from the seaward side. The resulting loss of habitat is potentially disastrous for salt marsh dependent species. To assess the population status of three species of salt marsh dependent...

  11. A reassessment of world population trends.

    PubMed

    Coale, A J

    1982-01-01

    This reassessment is limited to observations concerning trends in mortality and fertility and concerning longrun prospects for population growth. Recorded changes in mortality are compared with 3 projections made many years ago. Projections of European mortality made in 1941-42 understated by a wide margin the actual increase in expectation of life because of unforeseen technological changes in the prevention and cure of fatal disease. On the other hand, a projection made in 1955 for India, foreseeing a rapid rise in the 1950s and slower progress later on because of the exhaustion of the easier gains, appears to have been accurate and also to depict the prospects in other populations of relatively high mortality and low income. A different projection of life expectancy in Mexico was also quite close to actual changes in Mexican mortality; it was based on a universal curve constructed to represent how life expectancy rises, increasing ever more slowly as it approaches an upper limit. This curve (1 for each sex), constructed for projection of Mexican mortality, is employed as a standard of comparison for mortality changes in many countries. A number have followed the standard for females very closely for more than 3 decades; in developed countries, male life expectancy has generally fallen short of the standard. The almost universal low fertility in developed countries contrasts with the great diversity of levels and trends of fertility in developing countries, some of which retain undiminished high fertility and others of which have recently attained rates of childbearing as low as in the developed areas. Instances of surprisingly little change and surprisingly rapid change in fertility are described. In the future, growth of populations of developed countries will probably be slight; the future rate of increase in the developing areas depends on the unpredictable timing and pace of childbearing reduction in populations where fertility remains high. In the long run

  12. Hatching failure increases with severity of population bottlenecks in birds

    PubMed Central

    Briskie, James V.; Mackintosh, Myles

    2004-01-01

    Severe bottlenecks can reduce genetic diversity and increase inbreeding as individuals are forced to mate with close relatives, but it is unknown at what minimum population size the negative fitness consequences of bottlenecks are expressed. The New Zealand avifauna contains a large number of species that have gone through bottlenecks of varying severity, providing an exceptional opportunity to test this question by using the comparative method. Using decreased hatchability as a measure of fitness costs, we found that hatching failure was significantly greater among both native and introduced species that had passed through bottlenecks of <150 individuals. Comparisons between pre- and postbottleneck populations of introduced species suggest that hatching problems arise even in populations founded by <600 individuals. Our study confirms that hatching failure is widespread and persistent among birds passing through severe bottlenecks and that the population sizes at which this fitness cost is expressed are several times greater than the number of individuals currently used to found most new populations of endangered species. We recommend that conservation managers revise the protocols they use for reintroductions or they may unwittingly reduce the long-term viability of the species they are trying to save. PMID:14699045

  13. Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, Marc; Dorazio, Robert M.; Soldaat, Leo; Van Strien, Arco; Zuiderwijk, Annie; Royle, J. Andrew

    2009-01-01

    1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications. Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important

  14. Post-fragmentation population structure in a cooperative breeding Afrotropical cloud forest bird: emergence of a source-sink population network.

    PubMed

    Husemann, M; Cousseau, L; Callens, T; Matthysen, E; Vangestel, C; Hallmann, C; Lens, L

    2015-03-01

    The impact of demographic parameters on the genetic population structure and viability of organisms is a long-standing issue in the study of fragmented populations. Demographic and genetic tools are now readily available to estimate census and effective population sizes and migration and gene flow rates with increasing precision. Here we analysed the demography and genetic population structure over a recent 15-year time span in five remnant populations of Cabanis's greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a cooperative breeding bird in a severely fragmented cloud forest habitat. Contrary to our expectation, genetic admixture and effective population sizes slightly increased, rather than decreased between our two sampling periods. In spite of small effective population sizes in tiny forest remnants, none of the populations showed evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian modelling, however, suggested that differentiation of the populations coincided at least partially with an episode of habitat fragmentation. The ratio of meta-Ne to meta-Nc was relatively low for birds, which is expected for cooperative breeding species, while Ne /Nc ratios strongly varied among local populations. While the overall trend of increasing population sizes and genetic admixture may suggest that Cabanis's greenbuls increasingly cope with fragmentation, the time period over which these trends were documented is rather short relative to the average longevity of tropical species. Furthermore, the critically low Nc in the small forest remnants keep the species prone to demographic and environmental stochasticity, and it remains open if, and to what extent, its cooperative breeding behaviour helps to buffer such effects.

  15. Population in Africa: trends, problems and policies.

    PubMed

    1987-07-01

    The population of Africa is expected to increase from 553 million in 1985 to 877 million by the year 2000 and to reach 1.64 billion by 2025 before eventually stabilizing at 2.2 billion in the 22nd century. Further population growth will reflect a combination of further improvements in mortality the continuation of moderately high fertility rates, and a young age structure. Another crucial aspect of Africa's demography is overurbanization (42% of the population will be in urban areas by 2000) without concomitant economic growth, social change, or industrial development. These demographic trends manifest themselves in 4 problems: 1) fetal wastage, infant deaths, child losses, shortened life expectancy, and a lack of motivation to live better; 2) frequent childbirth, combined with poverty, malnutrition, ill health, and an incapacity to provide for one's children; 3) social, political, and economic chaos resulting from overcrowding, unemployment, the spread of slums and squatters, inadequate infrastructure, and the breakdown of social services caused by overurbanization; and 4) inadequate land resources, and thus food insufficiency, resulting from deforestation, environmental stress, and resource constraints. The following policies are needed to respond to these problems: 1) an integrated package of policies and programs to improve infant, child, and maternal health; 2) an integrated package of measures to induce rapid reductions in desired family size and to make family planning services available; 3) a comprehensive program to improve the status, role, and participation of women in development activities; 4) an integrated approach to population and development that takes into account spatial and territorial planning; and 5) a program to develop manpower capacities through comprehensive training and transfer of technology and skills.

  16. Painted Bunting Breeding Bird Survey trends associated with landscape changes in Georgia and South Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyers, J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Landscape changes during the first 3 decades of the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) may account for the Painted Bunting's declining population trend. In the southeastern U.S., it is estimated that this bunting has declined 3.5 % per year since 1966. I collected landscape data centered on identical 5-stop areas (n = 33, 306 ha each) of the BBS during early (1960s - 1970s) and late decades (1980s - 1990s). Peak 30-yr counts for Painted Buntings were found at the center of the 5-stop areas. I used stepwise multiple regression analysis to model the mean number of Painted Buntings (in the area during 3 yr, dependent variable) associated with landscape metrics (independent variables). During the early decades the average amount of edge on developed land (p = 0.10), average patch size of agriculture land (p = 0.01), average size of shrub-scrub and young forest (p = 0.09), and average amount of edge for emergent wetlands (p = 0.03) explained 40% of the variation in Painted Buntings counts. In the late decades average amount of edge on developed land (p = 0.04) and average amount of edge on emergent wetlands (p = 0.005) explained 35% of the variation in Painted Bunting counts. Large losses of agricultural land (proportion = 0.177 to 0.094), which was developed or converted to intensively managed pin plantations, may have reduced potential bunting breeding habitat. Shrub-scrub and young forest habitat was constant (proportion = 0.136 to 0.134) but did not affect mean counts of buntings in the late decades. Protected emergent wetlands remained constnat also from the early to late decades (proportion = 0.056 to 0.06) and may provide habitat to maintain a smaller Painted Bunting population. At this time, it's unclear how develped land, which is increasing (proportion = 0.036 to 0.088), may be affecting the Painted Bunting population in GS and SC.

  17. Women, population and development trends since 1984.

    PubMed

    Ware, H

    1989-01-01

    This paper review progress over the past 5 years with respect to the 6 recommendations adopted at the International Conference on Population 1984, which specifically address the situation of women. They include: 1) integrating women into development, 2) women's economic participation, 3) education, training, and employment, 4) raising the age at marriage, 5) the active involvement of men in all areas of family responsibility, and 6) the ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Several important areas potentially relevant to population issues which were omitted from the Conference recommendations are identified and discussed--namely, the situation of women (in particular, older women, women who are the sole supporters of families, and women and migration) and the situation of women in times of severe economic adversity. Finally, progress made with respect to data on women is highlighted, and caution is advised with respect to continued calls for new data. In contrast to the Nairobi Forward-Looking Strategies for the Advancement of Women, the recommendations are noted for implying an almost unresolvable conflict between women's biological and economic roles. However, it is pointed out that the goals of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women for full equality of men and women would require that the same choices be available to both sexes with respect to labor force participation. While it is too soon to have a clear perspective on the pace and direction of change during the past 5 years, the author finds it impossible to be optimistic about current trends because, in too many areas, progress regarding women has either stagnated or moved into reverse gear. The disappointing record is partially attributed to the tendency for policy makers to see the promotion of economic growth through sound economic policy and advancing the status of women as competing rather than

  18. Marine bird populations of Prince William Sound, Alaska, before and after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Bird study number 2. Exxon Valdez oil spill state/federal natural resource damage assessment final report

    SciTech Connect

    Klosiewski, S.P.; Laing, K.K.

    1994-06-01

    We estimated the summer and winter abundance of marine birds in Prince William Sound, Alaska, following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, examined changes in population size between pre-spill and post-spill surveys, and compared pre- to post-oil spill population trends in the oiled zone of the Sound relative to trends in the unoiled zone. Ninety-nine species of birds were observed on surveys. Estimated populations of 15 to 32 species/species groups demonstrated declines over the 17-19 year period between pre- and post-spill surveys. However, because of the long time period between surveys, we could not directly associate overall population declines with the oil spill.

  19. Effects of habitat change along Breeding Bird Survey routes in the central Appalachians on Cerulean Warbler population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McElhone, P.; Wood, P.W.; Dawson, D.

    2007-01-01

    The cerulean warbler (Dendroica cerulea) is one of the highest priority bird species in the eastern United States because populations have declined 4.3% annually during 1966?2005 based on Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes is thought to be one of the major factors contributing to the decline. BBS routes, the primary source for monitoring bird population trends, include 50 sampling stops every 0.8 km. Although data from BBS routes are extrapolated to determine regional trends in bird populations, it is important to understand the effects of habitat changes at the stop-level along BBS routes. Route-level analysis of habitat changes may mask important changes that are occurring at a smaller scale particularly for the cerulean warbler which displays several micro-scale habitat preferences. We are examining cerulean warbler habitat and population changes in its core breeding range of the Ohio Hills and Cumberland Plateau physiographic regions. We quantified land cover changes within 300 m of BBS routes in the core cerulean warbler breeding range of Ohio, West Virginia, and Kentucky by digitizing aerial photographs from two time periods: the 1980s and 2004. We also quantified land cover changes within 300 m of BBS routes with the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) from 1992 and 2001. The hand-digitized aerial photos will be compared with the NLCD to determine how similar the two methods are in quantifying land cover changes. We then compared stop-level land cover changes with stop level changes in cerulean warbler detections within the same time periods along the BBS routes. This will allow for a more detailed analysis of how well habitat changes along BBS routes reflect the changes in cerulean warbler populations.

  20. Molecular Epidemiology and Characterization of Campylobacter spp. Isolated from Wild Bird Populations in Northern England▿

    PubMed Central

    Hughes, Laura A.; Bennett, Malcolm; Coffey, Peter; Elliott, John; Jones, Trevor R.; Jones, Richard C.; Lahuerta-Marin, Angela; Leatherbarrow, A. Howard; McNiffe, Kenny; Norman, David; Williams, Nicola J.; Chantrey, Julian

    2009-01-01

    Campylobacter infections have been reported at prevalences ranging from 2 to 50% in a range of wild bird species, although there have been few studies that have investigated the molecular epidemiology of Campylobacter spp. Consequently, whether wild birds are a source of infection in humans or domestic livestock or are mainly recipients of domestic animal strains and whether separate cycles of infection occur remain unknown. To address these questions, serial cross-sectional surveys of wild bird populations in northern England were carried out over a 2-year period. Fecal samples were collected from 2,084 wild bird individuals and screened for the presence of Campylobacter spp. A total of 56 isolates were recovered from 29 birds sampled at 15 of 167 diverse locales. Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter lari, and Campylobacter coli were detected by PCR, and the prevalences of different Campylobacter spp. in different avian families ranged from 0% to 33%. Characterization of 36 C. jejuni isolates by multilocus sequence typing revealed that wild birds carry both livestock-associated and unique strains of C. jejuni. However, the apparent absence of unique wild bird strains of C. jejuni in livestock suggests that the direction of infection is predominantly from livestock to wild birds. C. lari was detected mainly in wild birds sampled in an estuarine or coastal habitat. Fifteen C. lari isolates were analyzed by macrorestriction pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, which revealed genetically diverse populations of C. lari in Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) and clonal populations in magpies (Pica pica). PMID:19286781

  1. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    PubMed

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A; Novak, Stephen J

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1) and 7.74 km yr(-1) shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  2. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    PubMed Central

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  3. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    PubMed

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A; Novak, Stephen J

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1) and 7.74 km yr(-1) shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  4. Some consequences of using counts of birds banded as indices to populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    In mist-net studies, it is often difficult to use capture-recapture methods to estimate number of birds present. Many investigators use number of birds captured as an index of population size. We investigate the consequences of using indices of bird abundance as surrogates for population size in hypothesis tests. Unless all of the birds present are captured, indices are biased estimates of local population size, and the amount of bias depends on the proportion of birds captured. We demonstrate the potential effects of bias on hypothesis tests based on indices. The bias generally causes type I error rates to be inflated. Investigators should either estimate the proportion of animals captured using capture-recapture methods or demonstrate that results of hypothesis tests based on indices are not consequences of bias in the indices.

  5. Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1-min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species-specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy-based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.

  6. Educational Trends of the Rural and Urban Population of Georgia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tarver, James D.; Stokes, C. Shannon

    Major trends in the educational status of Georgia's population were studied. These included recent changes in school enrollment of farm and nonfarm youths, and in adult educational attainment. Trends in school enrollment were studied for statewide, county, and regional differentials; and high school dropouts. Trends in educational attainment were…

  7. Contaminant effects on Great Lakes' fish-eating birds: a population perspective

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heinz, G.H.; Kendall, Ronald J.; Dickerson, Richard L.; Giesy, John P.; Suk, William P.

    1998-01-01

    Preventing environmental contaminants from reducing wildlife populations is the greatest concern in wildlife toxicology. In the Great Lakes, environmental contaminants have a history of reducing populations of many species of fish-eating birds. Endocrine effects may have contributed to declines in fish-eating bird populations, but the overriding harm was caused by DDE-induced eggshell thinning. Toxic effects may still be occurring today, but apparently they are not of a sufficient magnitude to depress populations of most fish-eating birds. Once DDE levels in the Great Lakes declined, eggshells of birds began to get thicker and reproductive success improved. Populations of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) and ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) have increased dramatically since the bans on DDT and other organochlorine pesticides. Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are still not reproducing at a normal rate along the shores of the Great Lakes, but success is much improved compared to earlier records when eggshell thinning was worse. Other species, such as herring gulls (Larus argentatus) and black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax), seem to be having improved reproductive success, but data on Great Lakes'-wide population changes are incomplete. Reproductive success of common terns (Sterna hirundo), Caspian terns (Sterna caspia), and Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) seems to have improved in recent years, but, again, data on population changes are not very complete, and these birds face many habitat related problems as well as contaminant problems. Although contaminants are still producing toxic effects, and these effects may include endocrine disfunction, fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes seem to be largely weathering these effects, at least as far as populations are concerned. A lack of obvious contaminant effects on populations of fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes, however, should not be equated with a lack of any harm to

  8. Reproduction and population levels of Peruvian Guano Birds, 1980 to 1986

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tovar, H.; GuilléN, V.; Cabrera, D.

    1987-12-01

    The three species of guano birds, guanay cormorant (Phalacrocorax bougainvillii), Peruvian booby (Sula variegate), and Peruvian pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis thagus), depend mainly on the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) for sustenance. A naturally occurring limitation on the population size of these birds is the oceanographic phenomenon known as "El Niño". The industrialization of the anchovy fishery during the 1960s and 1970s has also affected seabird populations: The annual extraction of huge volumes offish has decreased the availability of food for the guano birds, causing large population fluctuations and considerable changes in the relative abundance of the birds. Because of its great intensity and duration, the 1982-1983 El Niño caused high avian mortality, depressing populations to levels from which they have not yet recovered.

  9. Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China.

    PubMed

    Kamp, Johannes; Oppel, Steffen; Ananin, Alexandr A; Durnev, Yurii A; Gashev, Sergey N; Hölzel, Norbert; Mishchenko, Alexandr L; Pessa, Jorma; Smirenski, Sergey M; Strelnikov, Evgenii G; Timonen, Sami; Wolanska, Kolja; Chan, Simba

    2015-12-01

    Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow-breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species' migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long-term monitoring data from across the species' range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3-94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species' range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow-breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial-scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species' populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.

  10. Population trends of North American shorebirds based on the International Shorebird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Howe, M.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Harrington, B.A.

    1989-01-01

    Shorebirds (Charadiiformes) are prime candidates for population decline because of their dependence on wetlands that are being lost at a rapid pace. Thirty-six of the 49 species of shorebirds that breed in North America spend most of the year in Latin America. Because populations of most species breed and winter at remote sites , it may be feasible to monitor their numbers at migration stopovers. In this study, we used statistical trend analysis methods, developed for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, to analyze data on shorebird populations during south-bound migration in the United States. Survey data were collected by volunteers in the International Shorebird Survey (ISS). Methodological concerns over both the ISS and the trend analysis procedures are discussed in detail and biological interpretations of the results are suggested.

  11. Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenig, Walter D.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

    2016-06-01

    The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony--the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape--despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years--the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate--paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

  12. A method of studying wild bird populations by mist-netting and banding

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stamm, D.D.; Davis, D.E.; Robbins, C.S.

    1960-01-01

    1. Progress is reported toward development of a method of bird-population study based on mist-netting and banding. A definite pattern of arrangement and schedule of operation are presented. 2. Nets were operated for a total of 4200 net-hours during which 966 captures were made (23.0 birds per 100 net-hours). A total of 431 adult breeding birds were banded and 38 per cent of them were recaptured. 3. A breeding bird census was made simultaneously in the same area by the Williams spot-mapping technique. 4. Estimates of population by recapture agreed closely with the spot-mappmg census. 5. Some birds are demonstrated to have overlapping home-ranges much larger than their singing territories. 6. Recruitment and net-shyness distort recapture estimates of population .but the method allows detection and assessment of their influence in the population dealt with here. 7. The method produced integrated information on population density and dynamics, movement and behavior. 8. The procedure is especially well adapted to studies of disease agents in bird populations. 9. A simple scheme for description of the habitat in terms of relative abundance and frequency of occurrence of tree species was used.

  13. Winter marine bird and sea otter abundance of Prince William Sound, Alaska: Trends following the t/v Exxon Valdez oil spill from 1990-94. Restoration project 94159. Exxon Valdez oil spill restoration project final report

    SciTech Connect

    Agler, B.A.; Seiser, P.E.; Kendall, S.J.; Irons, D.B.

    1995-05-01

    We conducted small boat surveys to determine population abundance of marine birds and sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska during March 1994. We observed 45 bird and 8 mammal species in Prince William Sound, and we estimated that 320,470 + or - 63,640 marine birds were present. We estimated trends in the March population estimates from 1990-94 by determining whether estimates in the oiled zone changed at the same rate as those in the unoiled zone. For Prince William Sound as a whole, we also examined the population trends from 1990-94 using regression analyses. We found significant positive trends for harlequin duck (Histrionicus), goldeneye, merganser, bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and gull (Larus and Rissa spp.) populations. We also examined the relative abundance of marine bird species groups from 1972 to 1994. During March 1994, we estimated that the sea otter population was 7,746 + or - 2,073 otters. We found no difference in the rate of change between the oiled and unoiled zones from 1990-94, and there was no significant trend in the total number of sea otters in Prince William Sound from 1990-94.

  14. Trends in physician supply and population growth.

    PubMed

    Makaroff, Laura A; Green, Larry A; Petterson, Stephen M; Bazemore, Andrew W

    2013-04-01

    The physician workforce has steadily grown faster than the U.S. population over the past 30 years, context that is often absent in conversations anticipating physician scarcity. Policy makers addressing future physician shortages should also direct resources to ensure specialty and geographic distribution that best serves population health .

  15. Population Trends for Washington State. 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington State Office of Financial Management, Olympia.

    This document provides tables and figures of current demographic data for the state, counties, cities, and towns of Washington. The report is divided into two main sections: (1) "State, County, City Populations"; and (2) "Selected Estimates and Information". Section 1 presents such data as: population change and net migration for 1950-1993;…

  16. A comparison of landscapes occupied by increasing and decreasing populations of grassland birds.

    PubMed

    Veech, Joseph A

    2006-10-01

    For several decades, many grassland bird species have been declining in abundance throughout the Midwest and Great Plains regions of the United States, possibly due to loss of natural grassland habitat and increasing urbanization. I used 20 years of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to identify increasing, decreasing, and stable populations of 36 grassland-nesting bird species. I characterized the immediate landscape (circle with radius = 30 km) surrounding each population based on data from the National Resources Inventory. For each landscape, I calculated the proportion of eight different land-cover types: restored grassland, rangeland, cultivated cropland, pasture, noncultivated cropland, forest, urban land, and water. Using a null model, I compared landscape composition of increasing, decreasing, and stable populations. As predicted on the basis of the habitat preferences of grassland birds, increasing populations inhabited landscapes that contained significantly more restored grassland and rangeland but significantly less forest land and urban land than landscapes inhabited by decreasing populations. There was no significant difference in the proportion of cropland within the landscapes of increasing and decreasing populations, although cropland composed a large proportion (>30%) of many landscapes. In contrast, restored grassland typically composed a very small proportion (<3.5%) of total land cover, yet it was significantly more common in the landscapes of increasing than decreasing populations. These results suggest that grassland birds may benefit from government initiatives, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, that promote the restoration of grassland at a landscape scale. PMID:17002760

  17. Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

  18. Severe recent decrease of adult body mass in a declining insectivorous bird population

    PubMed Central

    Rioux Paquette, Sébastien; Pelletier, Fanie; Garant, Dany; Bélisle, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Migratory bird species that feed on air-borne insects are experiencing widespread regional declines, but these remain poorly understood. Agricultural intensification in the breeding range is often regarded as one of the main drivers of these declines. Here, we tested the hypothesis that body mass in breeding individuals should reflect habitat quality in an aerial insectivore, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a gradient of agricultural intensity. Our dataset was collected over 7 years (2005–2011) and included 2918 swallow captures and 1483 broods. Analyses revealed a substantial decline of the population over the course of the study (−19% occupancy rate), mirrored by decreasing body mass. This trend was especially severe in females, representing a total loss of 8% of their mass. Reproductive success was negatively influenced by intensive agriculture, but did not decrease over time. Interestingly, variation in body mass was independent of breeding habitat quality, leading us to suggest that this decline in body mass may result from carry-over effects from non-breeding areas and affect population dynamics through reduced survival. This work contributes to the growing body of evidence suggesting that declines in migratory aerial insectivores are driven by multiple, complex factors requiring better knowledge of year-round habitat use. PMID:24850929

  19. Status and trends of native birds in the Keauhou and Kilauea forest, Hawai`i Island.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Jacobi, James D.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Rubenstein, Tanya

    2010-01-01

    A Safe Harbor Agreement (SHA) is a voluntary arrangement between the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and non-Federal landowners to promote the protection, conservation, and recovery of listed species without imposing further land use restrictions on the landowners. Kamehameha Schools is considering entering into a SHA for their Keauhou and Kīlauea Forest lands on the island of Hawai′i. Bird surveys were conducted in 2008 to determine the current occurrence and density of listed species for the Keauhou and Kīlauea Forest, a prerequisite for establishing an agreement. Because of different management practices in the proposed SHA area we stratified the survey data into intact and altered forest strata. The listed passerines—′Akiapōlā′au (Hemignathus munroi), Hawai′i Creeper (Oreomystis mana), and Hawai′i ′Ākepa (Loxops coccineus)—occur in both strata but at low densities. The endangered ′Io (Hawaiian Hawk; Buteo solitarius) also occurs within both strata at low densities. This report was prepared for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Kamehameha Schools to provide information they can use to establish baseline levels for the SHA. In addition, we describe the status and trends of the non-listed native birds.

  20. A retrospective perspective: evaluating population changes by repeating historic bird surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Igl, Lawrence D.; Johnson, Douglas H.

    2005-01-01

    Acquiring an accurate picture of the changes in bird populations often involves a tradeoff between the time and effort required to complete the surveys and the number of years spent surveying the bird populations. An alternative approach to long-term monitoring efforts is to collect current data and contrast those with data collected earlier in a similar fashion on the same study site(s). To evaluate changes in bird populations, we repeated two extensive surveys, one in North Dakota (1967 vs. 1992-1993) and the other in the Platte River Valley of Nebraska (1979-1980 vs. 2001), where large areas of native vegetation had been converted to agriculture. We use these examples and others from the literature to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of using historical data as a frame of reference for population changes.

  1. Breeding bird populations and habitat associations within the Savannah River Site (SRS).

    SciTech Connect

    Gauthreaux, Sidney, A.; Steven J. Wagner.

    2005-06-29

    Gauthreaux, Sidney, A., and Steven J. Wagner. 2005. Breeding bird populations and habitat associations within the Savannah River Site (SRS). Final Report. USDA Forest Service, Savannah River, Aiken, SC. 48 pp. Abstract: During the 1970's and 1980's a dramatic decline occurred in the populations of Neotropical migratory birds, species that breed in North America and winter south of the border in Central and South America and in the Caribbean. In 1991 an international initiative was mounted by U. S. governmental land management agencies, nongovernmental conservation agencies, and the academic and lay ornithological communities to understand the decline of Neotropical migratory birds in the Americas. In cooperation with the USDA Forest Service - Savannah River (FS - SR) we began 1992 a project directed to monitoring population densities of breeding birds using the Breeding Bird Census (BBC) methodology in selected habitats within the Savannah River Site SRS. In addition we related point count data on the occurrence of breeding Neotropical migrants and other bird species to the habitat data gathered by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service and data on habitat treatments within forest stands.

  2. Limited catching bias in a wild population of birds with near-complete census information

    PubMed Central

    Simons, Mirre J P; Winney, Isabel; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Burke, Terry; Schroeder, Julia

    2015-01-01

    Animal research often relies on catching wild animals; however, individuals may have different trappability, and this can generate bias. We studied bias in mist netting, the main method for catching wild birds. The unusually high resighting rate in our study population—house sparrows (Passer domesticus) on Lundy Island (England)—allowed us to obtain accurate estimates of the population size. This unique situation enabled us to test for catching bias in mist netting using deviations from the expected Poisson distribution. There was no evidence that a fraction of the birds in the population consistently remained uncaught. However, we detected a different bias: More birds than expected were captured only once within a year. This bias probably resulted from a mixture of fieldworkers sometimes ignoring rapid recaptures and birds becoming net shy after their first capture. We had sufficient statistical power with the available data to detect a substantial uncaught fraction. Therefore, our data are probably unbiased toward catching specific individuals from our population. Our analyses demonstrate that intensively monitored natural insular populations, in which population size can be estimated precisely, provide the potential to address important unanswered questions without concerns about a fraction of the population remaining uncaught. Our approach can help researchers to test for catching bias in closely monitored wild populations for which reliable estimates of population size and dispersal are available. PMID:26380681

  3. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

    PubMed Central

    Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  4. From daily movements to population distributions: weather affects competitive ability in a guild of soaring birds

    PubMed Central

    Shepard, Emily L. C.; Lambertucci, Sergio A.

    2013-01-01

    The ability of many animals to access and exploit food is dependent on the ability to move. In the case of scavenging birds, which use soaring flight to locate and exploit ephemeral resources, the cost and speed of movement vary with meteorological factors. These factors are likely to modify the nature of interspecific interactions, as well as individual movement capacity, although the former are less well understood. We used aeronautical models to examine how soaring performance varies with weather within a guild of scavenging birds and the consequences this has for access to a common resource. Birds could be divided broadly into those with low wing loading that are more competitive in conditions with weak updraughts and low winds (black vultures and caracaras), and those with high wing loading that are well adapted for soaring in strong updraughts and moderate to high winds (Andean condors). Spatial trends in meteorological factors seem to confine scavengers with high wing loading to the mountains where they out-compete other birds; a trend that is borne out in worldwide distributions of the largest species. However, model predictions and carcass observations suggest that the competitive ability of these and other birds varies with meteorological conditions in areas where distributions overlap. This challenges the view that scavenging guilds are structured by fixed patterns of dominance and suggests that competitive ability varies across spatial and temporal scales, which may ultimately be a mechanism promoting diversity among aerial scavengers. PMID:24026471

  5. From daily movements to population distributions: weather affects competitive ability in a guild of soaring birds.

    PubMed

    Shepard, Emily L C; Lambertucci, Sergio A

    2013-11-01

    The ability of many animals to access and exploit food is dependent on the ability to move. In the case of scavenging birds, which use soaring flight to locate and exploit ephemeral resources, the cost and speed of movement vary with meteorological factors. These factors are likely to modify the nature of interspecific interactions, as well as individual movement capacity, although the former are less well understood. We used aeronautical models to examine how soaring performance varies with weather within a guild of scavenging birds and the consequences this has for access to a common resource. Birds could be divided broadly into those with low wing loading that are more competitive in conditions with weak updraughts and low winds (black vultures and caracaras), and those with high wing loading that are well adapted for soaring in strong updraughts and moderate to high winds (Andean condors). Spatial trends in meteorological factors seem to confine scavengers with high wing loading to the mountains where they out-compete other birds; a trend that is borne out in worldwide distributions of the largest species. However, model predictions and carcass observations suggest that the competitive ability of these and other birds varies with meteorological conditions in areas where distributions overlap. This challenges the view that scavenging guilds are structured by fixed patterns of dominance and suggests that competitive ability varies across spatial and temporal scales, which may ultimately be a mechanism promoting diversity among aerial scavengers. PMID:24026471

  6. Population trends among Jamaican reef corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, James W.; Woodley, Jeremy D.; Jason Smith, G.; Neigel, Joseph E.; Battey, James F.; Dallmeyer, Dorinda G.

    1981-11-01

    Disturbance has been cited as a potentially important agent in structuring ecological communities by modifying the effects of competition1-5. Catastrophic disturbance has also been proposed as a factor promoting the coexistence of competing species in highly diverse tropical ecosystems such as rain forests and coral reefs2,6-11. Here we describe patterns of recruitment and mortality among reef corals over 4 yr at several depths on the reefs of Discovery Bay, Jamaica, which were struck by Hurricane Alien on 6 August 198012. Photographic quadrats monitored since 1976 on a shallow water reef showed a negative correlation between coral abundance and mortality which was not offset by compensatory patterns of recruitment. This slow trend in the disproportionate reduction of rarer, competitively inferior species was reversed by Hurricane Alien, with storm-induced mortality being greatest in the most abundant species. On deeper reef stations, undisturbed by the storm, slower rates of colony loss were compensated for by commensurate rates of colony recruitment. Thus, patterns of differential mortality and recruitment contribute to the maintenance of high species diversity in this tropical marine ecosystem.

  7. Estimates of population change in selected species of tropical birds using mark-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Nesbitt, J.

    2000-01-01

    The population biology of tropical birds is known for a only small sample of species; especially in the Neotropics. Robust estimates of parameters such as survival rate and finite rate of population change (A) are crucial for conservation purposes and useful for studies of avian life histories. We used methods developed by Pradel (1996, Biometrics 52:703-709) to estimate A for 10 species of tropical forest lowland birds using data from a long-term (> 20 yr) banding study in Panama. These species constitute a ecologically and phylogenetically diverse sample. We present these estimates and explore if they are consistent with what we know from selected studies of banded birds and from 5 yr of estimating nesting success (i.e., an important component of A). A major goal of these analyses is to assess if the mark-recapture methods generate reliable and reasonably precise estimates of population change than traditional methods that require more sampling effort.

  8. Contributions of the Conservation Reserve Program to populations of breeding birds in North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.; Igl, L.D.

    1995-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that habitat provided by the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a feature of the 1985 farm bill, is used by many birds. The present study quantitatively assesses the importance of the CRP by estimating changes in breeding-bird populations of North Dakota projected if CRP land would revert to cultivation. Of 18 species that were common in CRP or crop fields or both, 12 were more abundant in CRP habitats. Six of these species had suffered significant population declines during 1967-1990, according to the North American Breeding Bird Survey. In contrast, none of the six species that were more common in cropland than in CRP fields had declined significantly. Termination of the Conservation Reserve Program and a return of enrolled land to cultivation is projected to cause population declines in North Dakota exceeding 17% for Sedge wren (Cistothorus platensis), Grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), Dickcissel (Spiza americana), and Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys).

  9. U.S. Population Trends Break with Past.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beale, Calvin L.

    1985-01-01

    Examines and explains unexpected population trends since 1970: substantial rural and small-town growth, regional shifts to the South and West, lower birth rates, increased life expectancy, smaller household size, and population growth from immigration. Illustrates how demographic events offer classic examples of the difficulty of predicting human…

  10. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, F.J.; Dorazio, R.M.; Rice, K.G.; Cherkiss, M.; Jeffery, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001-2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations. ?? 2011 US Government.

  11. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  12. [The population of West Sumatra: a profile, trends, and projections].

    PubMed

    Kamaluddin, R

    1984-06-01

    A review of population trends in West Sumatra, Indonesia, is presented, together with projections up to 1990. The author notes that the population increased at a rate of about 2.21 percent per year between 1971 and 1980 and will continue to increase at about 2.12 percent per year up to 1990. The age composition of the population is expected to remain largely unchanged, with a high proportion of young adults and children. Urbanization levels are expected to remain relatively low and variations in spatial distribution to persist. The implications of these trends for development policy are considered.

  13. Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality.

    PubMed

    Bruggeman, Jason E; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E; Kennedy, Patricia L; Nigro, Debora

    2015-10-01

    Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably

  14. Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality.

    PubMed

    Bruggeman, Jason E; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E; Kennedy, Patricia L; Nigro, Debora

    2015-10-01

    Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably

  15. Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millsap, Brian A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie; Sauer, John R.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Otto, Mark; Bjerre, Emily; Murphy, Robert K.

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we

  16. Changes in breeding bird populations in North Dakota: 1967 to 1992-93

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Igl, L.D.; Johnson, D.H.

    1997-01-01

    We compared breeding bird populations in North Dakota using surveys conducted in 1967 and 1992-93. In decreasing order, the five most frequently occurring species were Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris), Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta), Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus). The five most abundant species--Horned Lark, Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus), Red-winged Blackbird, Western Meadowlark, and Brown-headed Cowbird-accounted for 31-41% of the estimated statewide breeding bird population in the three years. Although species composition remained relatively similar among years, between-year patterns in abundance and frequency varied considerably among species. Data from this survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicated that species exhibiting significant declines were primarily grassland- and wetland-breeding birds, whereas species exhibiting significant increases primarily were those associated with human structures and woody vegetation. Population declines and increases for species with similar habitat associations paralleled breeding habitat changes, providing evidence that factors on the breeding grounds are having a detectable effect on breeding birds in the northern Great Plains.

  17. Estimating population change from count data: application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

    1998-01-01

    For birds and many other animal taxa, surveys that collect count data form a primary source of information on population change. Because counts are only indices to population size, care must be taken in using them in analyses of population change. Temporal or geographic differences in the proportion of animals counted can be misinterpreted as differences in population size. Therefore, temporally or geographically varying factors that influence the proportion of animals counted must be incorporated as covariables in the analysis of population parameters from count data. We describe the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) for illustration. The BBS is a major, landscape-level survey of birds in North America; it is typical of many count surveys, in that the same sample units (survey routes) are sampled each year, and change is modeled on these routes over time. We identify covariables related to observer ability, the omission of which can bias estimation of population change from BBS data. Controlling for observer effects or other potential sources of confounding requires the specification of models relating counts to population size. We begin with a partial model specification relating expected counts to population sizes; we describe estimators currently in use in relation to this partial specification. Additional assumptions lead to a class of over-dispersed multinomial models, for which we describe estimators of population change and procedures for parsimonious model selection. We illustrate the use of over-dispersed multinomial models by an application to data for Carolina Wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus).

  18. Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with bird populations as habitat-specific environmental indicators: evidence from Canada.

    PubMed

    Lantz, Van; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

    2008-04-01

    The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis-namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed- or random-effect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.

  19. Predatory bird populations in the east Mojave Desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knight, R.L.; Camp, R.J.; Boarman, W.I.; Knight, H.A.L.

    1999-01-01

    We surveyed 7 species of predatory birds weekly during a 12-month period (December 1992 through November 1993) in the east Mojave Desert, California. The Common Raven (Corvus corax) was the most frequently observed species with an average of 6.9 sightings per 100 km. Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura), Red-tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis), Loggerhead Shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus), American Kestrels (Falco sparverius), Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), and Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) were seen in decreasing order of frequency of observation through the study period. Ravens, Red-tailed Hawks, Loggerhead Shrikes, American Kestrels, and Prairie Falcons were seen throughout the year. Turkey Vultures were not present during winter months, while Golden Eagles were seen only during November and December. Turkey Vultures, Red-tailed Hawks, and ravens were most numerous on agricultural lands, while Loggerhead Shrikes were most Common at urban areas. Raven numbers increased with increasing number of linear rights-of-way parallel to the survey route. Perching was the most common behavior type, although Turkey Vultures and ravens were often observed soaring, flying, or standing on the ground near highways. Transmission powerline towers and telephone poles were used as perch sites disproportionately to availability.

  20. Recent status and trends of the land bird avifauna on Saipan, Mariana Islands, with emphasis on the endangered Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, R.J.; Pratt, T.K.; Marshall, A.P.; Amidon, F.; Williams, L.L.

    2009-01-01

    The avifauna of the Mariana Islands, an archipelago in the western Pacific, faces the threats of rapid economic development and the spread of non-native species, particularly a devastating predator, Brown Tree Snake Boiga irregularis. In this paper, we examine the status and trends of the land bird fauna of Saipan Island based on three island-wide surveys conducted in 1982, 1997, and 2007. During this period, the human population on Saipan increased more than four-fold and much of the island has been developed. The surveys employed standard point-transect methods based on Distance Sampling. Remarkably, we found nearly all species of land birds - 11 native species and three introduced species - to be common or abundant. The exception was the Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperouse, a historically rare species that was not observed on the 2007 survey, although it does persist on Saipan and other Mariana islands. A comparison of species densities among the three surveys showed that seven species, mainly fruit and seed-eaters, had increased and three species of insectivorous birds had decreased - Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinia, and Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei. Of these three, Nightingale Reed-warbler is listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List and as an Endangered Species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Reed-warbler densities on Saipan decreased by more than half between 1982 and 2007. Although point transect sampling worked well for this species, density estimates and trends assessment could be improved by reallocating sampling stations among habitats and by more frequent sampling. ?? BirdLife International 2009.

  1. Seasonal distribution of bird populations at the Patuxent Research Refuge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoffman, D.J.; Henny, C.J.; Hill, E.F.; Keith, J.A.; Grove, R.A.

    2000-01-01

    High concentrations of mercury from past mining activities have accumulated in the food chain of fish-eating birds nesting along the mid to lower Carson River. Activities of nine plasma and tissue enzymes, and concentrations of other plasma and tissue constituents were measured for black-crowned night-heron, Nycticorax nycticorax, (BCNH) and snowy egret, Egretta thula, (SE) nestlings from two high mercury sites and one low mercury site. Geometric mean blood Hg concentrations for BCNHs at the high mercury sites were 2.6 and 2.8 ppm (ww) and 0.6 ppm at the low mercury site. Blood concentrations for SEs were 3.6 and 1.9 ppm at the high mercury sites and 0.7 ppm at the low mercury site. In BCNHs plasma glutathione peroxidase (GSH peroxidase) activity was lower in both high mercury sites relative to the low mercury site. Butyryl cholinesterase (BuChe), ALT, glutathione reductase (GSSG-reductase) and LDH-L activities were lower in one high mercury site. In SEs significant differences were lower BuChe and LDH-L, but elevated GGT activities. Evidence of renal stress in both species at high mercury sites included increased plasma uric acid, blood urea nitrogen, and creatinine concentrations as well as oxidative stress in the kidney tissue itself where oxidized glutathione increased. A number of the mercury site-related effects, including decreased plasma GSH-peroxidase and hepatic G-6-PDH activities, higher GSSG-reductase activity, and lower hepatic concentrations of reduced thiols have been reported in methylmercury feeding studies with great egrets and mallards. These findings suggest the utility of herons and egrets for monitoring mercury sites.

  2. Trends in spawning populations of Pacific anadromous salmonids

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Konkel, G.W.; McIntyre, J.D.

    1987-01-01

    Annual escapement records for 1968-1984 for five species of Pacific salmon-chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho (O. kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), pink (O. gorbuscha), and chum (O. keta)—and steelhead (Salmo gairdneri) were obtained from published and unpublished sources and organized in a computer database. More than 25,500 escapement records were obtained for more than 1,100 locations throughout Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Escapement trends for naturally reproducing populations for which data were available for at least 7 years from 1968 to 1984 and at least 4 years from 1975 to 1984 were analyzed by linear regression. Significant trends were observed in about 30% of the 886 populations examined. Trends were summarized by species for three geographic regions in Alaska and four in the Pacific Northwest (including California). For chinook, sockeye, and pink salmon, trends were predominantly increasing in the Alaska regions and either lacking or predominantly decreasing in most of the Pacific Northwest regions; for coho and chum salmon, trends were predominantly decreasing in one or more Alaska regions as well as in most of the Pacific Northwest regions. For steelhead, too few populations were examined to enable us to characterize trends throughout their range. Among the 657 salmonid populations excluded from the trend analysis because the data sets were incomplete, 13 (of which 2 were in Alaska) declined to zero during the period of analysis. For coho, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon and steelhead, major data gaps were revealed by a comparison of the geographic distribution of escapement records with the spawning distribution of the species. For chinook salmon, escapement records were more geographically representative of the spawning distribution.

  3. Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird

    PubMed Central

    Arlt, Debora; Forslund, Pär; Jeppsson, Tobias; Pärt, Tomas

    2008-01-01

    Background To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use) types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands) displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log λs: −0.332, −0.429, −0.168, respectively), that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log λs: −0.056, +0.081, −0.059). Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE). Conclusions/Significance Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands. PMID:18714351

  4. The effects of predation by wading birds (Ardeidae) and blue crabs ( Callinectes sapidus) on the population size structure of the common mummichog, Fundulus heteroclitus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kneib, R. T.

    1982-02-01

    Preliminary observations suggested that predation by herons and egretsaffected the size structure of a mummichog ( Fundulus heteroclitus) population in Tar Landing Marsh, North Carolina. The hypothesis was tested by placing 300 mummichogs represented equally in three size classes into each half of an enclosed, divided, high marsh pool. Nylon cord was strung in a grid over one side to inhibit predation by wading birds. Although mummichog losses were higher in the side of the pool which was open to bird predation, the same trend in size-specific losses also occurred in the bird-exclusion side. Repeating the experiment after the removal of several blue crabs ( Callinectes sapidus) improved mummichog survivorship and suggested that crabs and not birds were responsible for the fish losses previously observed. In a final experiment, birds were excluded and crabs were removed from one side but added to the other side of the pool. After 24 days losses due to C. sapidus occurred in all mummichog size classes, but size-specific predation by blue crabs produced the highest losses (90%) among the largest (>70 mm total length) fish. Blue crab predation on mummichog populations may influence the community structure of salt marsh infauna and may also function in the movement of marsh production to open coastal waters.

  5. Very Low Population Structure in a Highly Mobile and Wide-Ranging Endangered Bird Species.

    PubMed

    Kvistad, Lynna; Ingwersen, Dean; Pavlova, Alexandra; Bull, James K; Sunnucks, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The loss of biodiversity following fragmentation and degradation of habitat is a major issue in conservation biology. As competition for resources increases following habitat loss and fragmentation, severe population declines may occur even in common, highly mobile species; such demographic decline may cause changes within the population structure of the species. The regent honeyeater, Anthochaera phrygia, is a highly nomadic woodland bird once common in its native southeast Australia. It has experienced a sharp decline in abundance since the late 1970s, following clearing of large areas of its preferred habitat, box-ironbark woodland, within the last 200 years. A captive breeding program has been established as part of efforts to restore this species. This study used genetic data to examine the range-wide population structure of regent honeyeaters, including spatial structure, its change through time, sex differences in philopatry and mobility, and genetic differences between the captive and wild populations. There was low genetic differentiation between birds captured in different geographic areas. Despite the recent demographic decline, low spatial structure appears to have some temporal consistency. Both sexes appear to be highly mobile, and there does not seem to be significant genetic differentiation between the captive and wild populations. We conclude that management efforts for survival of this species, including habitat protection, restoration, and release of captive-bred birds into the wild, can treat the species as effectively a single genetic population.

  6. Very Low Population Structure in a Highly Mobile and Wide-Ranging Endangered Bird Species

    PubMed Central

    Kvistad, Lynna; Ingwersen, Dean; Pavlova, Alexandra; Bull, James K.; Sunnucks, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The loss of biodiversity following fragmentation and degradation of habitat is a major issue in conservation biology. As competition for resources increases following habitat loss and fragmentation, severe population declines may occur even in common, highly mobile species; such demographic decline may cause changes within the population structure of the species. The regent honeyeater, Anthochaera phrygia, is a highly nomadic woodland bird once common in its native southeast Australia. It has experienced a sharp decline in abundance since the late 1970s, following clearing of large areas of its preferred habitat, box-ironbark woodland, within the last 200 years. A captive breeding program has been established as part of efforts to restore this species. This study used genetic data to examine the range-wide population structure of regent honeyeaters, including spatial structure, its change through time, sex differences in philopatry and mobility, and genetic differences between the captive and wild populations. There was low genetic differentiation between birds captured in different geographic areas. Despite the recent demographic decline, low spatial structure appears to have some temporal consistency. Both sexes appear to be highly mobile, and there does not seem to be significant genetic differentiation between the captive and wild populations. We conclude that management efforts for survival of this species, including habitat protection, restoration, and release of captive-bred birds into the wild, can treat the species as effectively a single genetic population. PMID:26649426

  7. Very Low Population Structure in a Highly Mobile and Wide-Ranging Endangered Bird Species.

    PubMed

    Kvistad, Lynna; Ingwersen, Dean; Pavlova, Alexandra; Bull, James K; Sunnucks, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The loss of biodiversity following fragmentation and degradation of habitat is a major issue in conservation biology. As competition for resources increases following habitat loss and fragmentation, severe population declines may occur even in common, highly mobile species; such demographic decline may cause changes within the population structure of the species. The regent honeyeater, Anthochaera phrygia, is a highly nomadic woodland bird once common in its native southeast Australia. It has experienced a sharp decline in abundance since the late 1970s, following clearing of large areas of its preferred habitat, box-ironbark woodland, within the last 200 years. A captive breeding program has been established as part of efforts to restore this species. This study used genetic data to examine the range-wide population structure of regent honeyeaters, including spatial structure, its change through time, sex differences in philopatry and mobility, and genetic differences between the captive and wild populations. There was low genetic differentiation between birds captured in different geographic areas. Despite the recent demographic decline, low spatial structure appears to have some temporal consistency. Both sexes appear to be highly mobile, and there does not seem to be significant genetic differentiation between the captive and wild populations. We conclude that management efforts for survival of this species, including habitat protection, restoration, and release of captive-bred birds into the wild, can treat the species as effectively a single genetic population. PMID:26649426

  8. Environmental pollution affects genetic diversity in wild bird populations.

    PubMed

    Eeva, Tapio; Belskii, Eugen; Kuranov, Boris

    2006-09-19

    Many common environmental pollutants, together with nuclear radiation, are recognized as genotoxic. There is, however, very little information on pollution-related genetic effects on free-living animal populations, especially in terrestrial ecosystems. We investigated whether genetic diversity in two small insectivorous passerines, the great tit (Parus major) and the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), was changed near point sources of heavy metals (two copper smelters) or radioactive isotopes (nuclear material reprocessing plant). We measured concentration of heavy metals and nucleotide diversity in mitochondrial DNA in feather samples taken from nestlings in multiple polluted areas and at control sites. In both species, heavy metal concentrations - especially of arsenic - were increased in feathers collected at smelter sites. The P. major population living near a smelter showed significantly higher nucleotide diversity than a control population in an unpolluted site, suggesting increased mutation rates in a polluted environment. On the contrary, F. hypoleuca showed reduced nucleotide diversity at both smelter sites but increased nucleotide diversity near the source of radioactivity. Our results show that heavy metal pollution and low level nuclear radiation affect the nucleotide diversity in two free-living insectivorous passerines. We suggest that the different response in these two species may be due to their different ability to handle toxic compounds in the body. PMID:16807076

  9. POPULATION TRENDS AND EDUCATIONAL CHANGE IN THE STATE OF WASHINGTON.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MILLER, VINCENT A.; SCHMID, CALVIN F.

    THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POPULATION CHANGES IN THE STATE OF WASHINGTON WERE ANALYZED TO DETERMINE RELATIONSHIPS TO AND INFLUENCES UPON PUBLIC EDUCATIONAL TRENDS, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PHYSICAL FACILITIES, CURRICULUMS, STAFF, FINANCES, AND ADMINISTRATION. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY, THE STATE WAS GROUPED INTO LOGICAL AND…

  10. Quantifying the detrimental impacts of land-use and management change on European forest bird populations.

    PubMed

    Wade, Amy S I; Barov, Boris; Burfield, Ian J; Gregory, Richard D; Norris, Ken; Butler, Simon J

    2013-01-01

    The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health.

  11. The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

    2011-01-01

    We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  12. Chapter 8. Effects of fire on bird populations in mixed-grass prairie

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1997-01-01

    The mixed-grass prairie is one of the largest ecosystems in North America, originally covering about 69 million hectares (Bragg and Steuter 1995). Although much of the natural vegetation has been replaced by cropland and other uses (Samson and Knopf 1994, Bragg and Steuter 1995), significant areas have been preserved in national wildlife refuges, waterfowl production areas, state game management areas, and nature preserves. Mixed-grass prairie evolved with fire (Bragg 1995), and fire is frequently used as a management tool for prairie (Berkey et al. 1993). Much of the mixed-grass prairie that has been protected is managed to enhance the reproductive success of waterfowl and other gamebirds, but nongame birds now are receiving increasing emphasis. Despite the importance of the area to numerous species of birds and the aggressive management applied to many sites, relatively little is known about the effects of fire on the suitability of mixed-grass prairie for breeding birds. Several studies have examined effects of fire on breeding birds in the tallgrass prairie (e.g., Tester and Marshall 1961, Eddleman 1974, Halvorsen and Anderson 1983, Westenmeier and Buhnerkempe 1983, Zimmerman 1992, Herkert 1994), in western sagebrush grasslands (Peterson and Best 1987), and in shrubsteppe (Bock and Bock 1987). Studies of fire effects in the mixed-grass prairie are limited. Huber and Steuter (1984) examined the effects on birds during the breeding season following an early-May prescribed burn on a 122-ha site in South Dakota. They contrasted the bird populations on that site to those on a nearby 462-ha unburned site that had been lightly grazed by bison (Bison bison). Pylypec (1991) monitored breeding bird populations occurring in fescue prairies of Canada on a single 12.9-ha burned area and on an adjacent 5.6-ha unburned fescue prairie for three years after a prescribed burn. This chapter describes the effects of prescribed fire on common terrestrial birds at a mixed

  13. Effects of fire on bird populations in mixed-grass prairie: Chapter 8

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Douglas H.; Knopf, F.L.; Samson, F.B.

    1997-01-01

    The mixed-grass prairie is one of the largest ecosystems in North America, originally covering about 69 million hectares (Bragg and Steuter 1995). Although much of the natural vegetation has been replaced by cropland and other uses (Samson and Knopf 1994, Bragg and Steuter 1995), significant areas have been preserved in national wildlife refuges, waterfowl production areas, state game management areas, and nature preserves. Mixed-grass prairie evolved with fire (Bragg 1995), and fire is frequently used as a management tool for prairie (Berkey et al. 1993). Much of the mixed-grass prairie that has been protected is managed to enhance the reproductive success of waterfowl and other gamebirds, but nongame birds now are receiving increasing emphasis. Despite the importance of the area to numerous species of birds and the aggressive management applied to many sites, relatively little is known about the effects of fire on the suitability of mixed-grass prairie for breeding birds. Several studies have examined effects of fire on breeding birds in the tallgrass prairie (e.g., Tester and Marshall 1961, Eddleman 1974, Halvorsen and Anderson 1983, Westenmeier and Buhnerkempe 1983, Zimmerman 1992, Herkert 1994), in western sagebrush grasslands (Peterson and Best 1987), and in shrubsteppe (Bock and Bock 1987). Studies of fire effects in the mixed-grass prairie are limited. Huber and Steuter (1984) examined the effects on birds during the breeding season following an early-May prescribed burn on a 122-ha site in South Dakota. They contrasted the bird populations on that site to those on a nearby 462-ha unburned site that had been lightly grazed by bison (Bison bison). Pylypec (1991) monitored breeding bird populations occurring in fescue prairies of Canada on a single 12.9-ha burned area and on an adjacent 5.6-ha unburned fescue prairie for three years after a prescribed burn. This chapter describes the effects of prescribed fire on common terrestrial birds at a mixed

  14. Comparison of neotropical winter bird populations in isolated patches versus extensive forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.A.; Dawson, D.K.; Colon, J.; Espinoza, F.; Rodriguez, J.; Sutton, R.; Vargas, T.

    1987-01-01

    Wintering birds were captured with mist nets at 12 pairs of forested sites in the New World tropics in 1984 and 1985 to compare populations in small isolated woodlands (generally 5-50 ha) with those in extensive forests (> 1,000 ha). Net-hours of effort were similar in large and small sites, as were total birds captured and banded, but species composition was very different. Members of the Todidae, Dendrocolaptidae, Formicariidae and Thraupinae were significantly more common in extensive forest than in small isolated tracts, indicating that these birds are especially vulnerable to effects of forest fragmentation. However, in winter many species of North American migrants, even species that are restricted to extensive forest during the breeding season, were just as common in small forest fragments as in extensive forest. A high percentage of the North American migrants banded in January 1984 (40 to 50 % for some species) were recaptured in 1985.

  15. An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, M.G.; Powell, L.A.; Hines, R.K.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

  16. Nonrandom dispersal drives phenotypic divergence within a bird population

    PubMed Central

    Camacho, Carlos; Canal, David; Potti, Jaime

    2013-01-01

    Gene flow through dispersal has traditionally been thought to function as a force opposing evolutionary differentiation. However, directional gene flow may actually reinforce divergence of populations in close proximity. This study documents the phenotypic differentiation over more than two decades in body size (tarsus length) at a very short spatial scale (1.1 km) within a population of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca inhabiting deciduous and coniferous habitats. Unlike females, males breeding in the deciduous forest were consistently larger than those from the managed coniferous forest. This assortment by size is likely explained by preset habitat preferences leading to dominance of the largest males and exclusion of the smallest ones toward the nonpreferred coniferous forest coupled with directional dispersal. Movements of males between forests were nonrandom with respect to body size and flow rate, which might function to maintain the phenotypic variation in this heritable trait at such a small spatial scale. However, a deeply rooted preference for the deciduous habitat might not be in line with its quality due to the increased levels of breeding density of hole-nesting competitors therein. These results illustrate how eco-evolutionary scenarios can develop under directional gene flow over surprisingly small spatial scales. Our findings come on top of recent studies concerning new ways in which dispersal and gene flow can influence microevolution. PMID:24363908

  17. Nonrandom dispersal drives phenotypic divergence within a bird population.

    PubMed

    Camacho, Carlos; Canal, David; Potti, Jaime

    2013-11-01

    Gene flow through dispersal has traditionally been thought to function as a force opposing evolutionary differentiation. However, directional gene flow may actually reinforce divergence of populations in close proximity. This study documents the phenotypic differentiation over more than two decades in body size (tarsus length) at a very short spatial scale (1.1 km) within a population of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca inhabiting deciduous and coniferous habitats. Unlike females, males breeding in the deciduous forest were consistently larger than those from the managed coniferous forest. This assortment by size is likely explained by preset habitat preferences leading to dominance of the largest males and exclusion of the smallest ones toward the nonpreferred coniferous forest coupled with directional dispersal. Movements of males between forests were nonrandom with respect to body size and flow rate, which might function to maintain the phenotypic variation in this heritable trait at such a small spatial scale. However, a deeply rooted preference for the deciduous habitat might not be in line with its quality due to the increased levels of breeding density of hole-nesting competitors therein. These results illustrate how eco-evolutionary scenarios can develop under directional gene flow over surprisingly small spatial scales. Our findings come on top of recent studies concerning new ways in which dispersal and gene flow can influence microevolution.

  18. High urban population density of birds reflects their timing of urbanization.

    PubMed

    Møller, Anders Pape; Diaz, Mario; Flensted-Jensen, Einar; Grim, Tomas; Ibáñez-Álamo, Juan Diego; Jokimäki, Jukka; Mänd, Raivo; Markó, Gábor; Tryjanowski, Piotr

    2012-11-01

    Living organisms generally occur at the highest population density in the most suitable habitat. Therefore, invasion of and adaptation to novel habitats imply a gradual increase in population density, from that at or below what was found in the ancestral habitat to a density that may reach higher levels in the novel habitat following adaptation to that habitat. We tested this prediction of invasion biology by analyzing data on population density of breeding birds in their ancestral rural habitats and in matched nearby urban habitats that have been colonized recently across a continental latitudinal gradient. We estimated population density in the two types of habitats using extensive point census bird counts, and we obtained information on the year of urbanization when population density in urban habitats reached levels higher than that of the ancestral rural habitat from published records and estimates by experienced ornithologists. Both the difference in population density between urban and rural habitats and the year of urbanization were significantly repeatable when analyzing multiple populations of the same species across Europe. Population density was on average 30 % higher in urban than in rural habitats, although density reached as much as 100-fold higher in urban habitats in some species. Invasive urban bird species that colonized urban environments over a long period achieved the largest increases in population density compared to their ancestral rural habitats. This was independent of whether species were anciently or recently urbanized, providing a unique cross-validation of timing of urban invasions. These results suggest that successful invasion of urban habitats was associated with gradual adaptation to these habitats as shown by a significant increase in population density in urban habitats over time.

  19. The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahas, Rein; Aasa, Anto

    2006-09-01

    This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5 20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10 30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.

  20. Population genetic structure and long-distance dispersal of a recently expanding migratory bird.

    PubMed

    Ramos, Raül; Song, Gang; Navarro, Joan; Zhang, Ruiying; Symes, Craig T; Forero, Manuela G; Lei, Fumin

    2016-06-01

    Long-distance dispersal events and their derivable increases of genetic diversity have been highlighted as important ecological and evolutionary determinants that improve performances of range-expanding species. In the context of global environmental change, specific dispersal strategies have to be understood and foreseen if we like to prevent general biodiversity impoverishment or the spread of allochthonous diseases. We explored the genetic structure and potential population mixing on the recently range-expanding European bee-eater Merops apiaster. In addition, the species is suspected of harbouring and disseminating the most relevant disease for bees and apiculture, Nosema microsporidia. In agreement with complementary ringing recovery data and morphometric measurements, genetic results on two mitochondrial genes and 12 microsatellites showed a reasonably well-structured population partitioning along its breeding distribution. Microsatellite results indicated that not only did a few birds recently disperse long distance during their return migrations and change their natal breeding areas, but also that a group of allochthonous birds together founded a new colony. Although we did not provide evidence on the direct implication of birds in the widespread of Nosema parasites, our finding on the long-distance dispersal of bird flocks between remote breeding colonies adds concern about the role of European bee-eaters in the spread of such disease at a large, inter-continental scale.

  1. Population genetic structure and long-distance dispersal of a recently expanding migratory bird.

    PubMed

    Ramos, Raül; Song, Gang; Navarro, Joan; Zhang, Ruiying; Symes, Craig T; Forero, Manuela G; Lei, Fumin

    2016-06-01

    Long-distance dispersal events and their derivable increases of genetic diversity have been highlighted as important ecological and evolutionary determinants that improve performances of range-expanding species. In the context of global environmental change, specific dispersal strategies have to be understood and foreseen if we like to prevent general biodiversity impoverishment or the spread of allochthonous diseases. We explored the genetic structure and potential population mixing on the recently range-expanding European bee-eater Merops apiaster. In addition, the species is suspected of harbouring and disseminating the most relevant disease for bees and apiculture, Nosema microsporidia. In agreement with complementary ringing recovery data and morphometric measurements, genetic results on two mitochondrial genes and 12 microsatellites showed a reasonably well-structured population partitioning along its breeding distribution. Microsatellite results indicated that not only did a few birds recently disperse long distance during their return migrations and change their natal breeding areas, but also that a group of allochthonous birds together founded a new colony. Although we did not provide evidence on the direct implication of birds in the widespread of Nosema parasites, our finding on the long-distance dispersal of bird flocks between remote breeding colonies adds concern about the role of European bee-eaters in the spread of such disease at a large, inter-continental scale. PMID:26994943

  2. The early bird gets the shrimp: Confronting assumptions of isotopic equilibrium and homogeneity in a wild bird population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wunder, Michael B.; Jehl, Joseph R.; Stricker, Craig A.

    2012-01-01

    1. Because stable isotope distributions in organic material vary systematically across energy gradients that exist in ecosystems, community and population structures, and in individual physiological systems, isotope values in animal tissues have helped address a broad range of questions in animal ecology. It follows that every tissue sample provides an isotopic profile that can be used to study dietary or movement histories of individual animals. Interpretations of these profiles depend on the assumption that metabolic pools are isotopically well mixed and in equilibrium with dietary resources prior to tissue synthesis, and they extend to the population level by assuming isotope profiles are identically distributed for animals using the same proximal dietary resource. As these assumptions are never fully met, studying structure in the variance of tissue isotope values from wild populations is informative. 2. We studied variation in δ13C, δ15N, δ2H and δ18O data for feathers from a population of eared grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) that migrate to Great Salt Lake each fall to moult feathers. During this time, they cannot fly and feed almost exclusively on superabundant brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana). The ecological simplicity of this situation minimized the usual spatial and trophic complexities often present in natural studies of feather isotope values. 3. Ranges and variances of isotope values for the feathers were larger than those from previously published studies that report feather isotopic variance, but they were bimodally distributed in all isotope dimensions. Isotope values for proximal dietary resources and local surface water show that some of the feathers we assumed to have been grown locally must have been grown before birds reached isotopic equilibrium with local diet or immediately prior to arrival at Great Salt Lake. 4. Our study provides novel insights about resource use strategies in eared grebes during migration. More generally, it

  3. The early bird gets the shrimp: confronting assumptions of isotopic equilibrium and homogeneity in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Wunder, Michael B; Jehl, Joseph R; Stricker, Craig A

    2012-11-01

    1. Because stable isotope distributions in organic material vary systematically across energy gradients that exist in ecosystems, community and population structures, and in individual physiological systems, isotope values in animal tissues have helped address a broad range of questions in animal ecology. It follows that every tissue sample provides an isotopic profile that can be used to study dietary or movement histories of individual animals. Interpretations of these profiles depend on the assumption that metabolic pools are isotopically well mixed and in equilibrium with dietary resources prior to tissue synthesis, and they extend to the population level by assuming isotope profiles are identically distributed for animals using the same proximal dietary resource. As these assumptions are never fully met, studying structure in the variance of tissue isotope values from wild populations is informative. 2. We studied variation in δ(13) C, δ(15) N, δ(2) H and δ(18) O data for feathers from a population of eared grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) that migrate to Great Salt Lake each fall to moult feathers. During this time, they cannot fly and feed almost exclusively on superabundant brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana). The ecological simplicity of this situation minimized the usual spatial and trophic complexities often present in natural studies of feather isotope values. 3. Ranges and variances of isotope values for the feathers were larger than those from previously published studies that report feather isotopic variance, but they were bimodally distributed in all isotope dimensions. Isotope values for proximal dietary resources and local surface water show that some of the feathers we assumed to have been grown locally must have been grown before birds reached isotopic equilibrium with local diet or immediately prior to arrival at Great Salt Lake. 4. Our study provides novel insights about resource use strategies in eared grebes during migration. More generally

  4. Challenge infection as a means of determining the rate of disease resistant Trichomonas gallinae-free birds in a population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kocan, R.M.; Knisley, J.O.

    1970-01-01

    Trichomonas gallinae-free pigeons and mourning doves were infected with the Jones' Barn strain of T. gallinae to determine the rate of disease resistant T. gallinae-free birds in each population. Although all birds became infected 88% of the pigeons were resistant to trichomoniasis while 82% of the mourning doves were resistant. It was concluded that these birds had been previously infected and spontaneously lost their trichomonad fauna while retaining their resistance to fatal infection.

  5. Emerging Infectious Disease Leads to Rapid Population Declines of Common British Birds

    PubMed Central

    Toms, Mike P.; Peck, Kirsi M.; Kirkwood, James K.; Chantrey, Julian; Clatworthy, Innes R.; Evans, Andy D.; Hughes, Laura A.; Hutchinson, Oliver C.; John, Shinto K.; Pennycott, Tom W.; Perkins, Matthew W.; Rowley, Peter S.; Simpson, Vic R.; Tyler, Kevin M.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

    2010-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period. PMID:20805869

  6. Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.

    PubMed

    Bertram, Douglas F; Drever, Mark C; McAllister, Murdoch K; Schroeder, Bernard K; Lindsay, David J; Faust, Deborah A

    2015-01-01

    Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as 'Threatened' by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996-2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend ('year effects'), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey.

  7. Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, Bernard K.; Lindsay, David J.; Faust, Deborah A.

    2015-01-01

    Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as ‘Threatened’ by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996–2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend (‘year effects’), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey. PMID:26258803

  8. Regional analysis of population trajectories from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Helbig, Andreas J.; Flade, Martin

    1999-01-01

    The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was started in 1966, and provides information on population change and distribution for most of the birds in North America. The geographic extent of the survey, and the logistical compromises needed to survey such a large area, present many challenges for estimation from BBS data. In this paper, we describe the survey and discuss some of the limitations of the survey design and implementation. Analysis of the survey has evolved over time as new statistical methods and insights into the analysis of count data are developed. Survey results and analysis tools for the BBS are now available over intemet; we present new methods that use generalized linear models for estimation of population change and empirical Bayes procedures for regional summaries.

  9. Surveys of forest bird populations found in the vicinity of proposed geothermal project subzones in the district of Puna, Hawaii

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobi, J.D.; Reynolds, M.; Ritchotte, G.; Nielsen, B.; Viggiano, A.; Dwyer, J.

    1994-10-01

    This report presents data on the distribution and status of forest bird species found within the vicinity of proposed geothermal resource development on the Island of Hawaii. Potential impacts of the proposed development on the native bird populations found in the project are are addressed.

  10. Is the detection of the first arrival date of migrating birds influenced by population size? A case study of the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio.

    PubMed

    Tryjanowski, P; Sparks, T H

    2001-11-01

    Many analyses do not consider the problems associated with the effects of population size on encounter recording. Population size could impact on the detection of bird arrival time as there is a higher probability of observing earlier arrival when the population size is greater and the song activity of birds is increased, as occurs with a larger population. As a case study, we have analysed data on the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio collected in Western Poland during 1983-2000. In this period the red-backed shrike's return to its breeding sites became significantly earlier whilst the contemporary population size increased significantly. To eliminate linear trends through time we have worked on the standardised residuals from regression of both arrival time and population size on year. The correlation between arrival time and population size residuals was significantly negative, further supporting the link between detection and population size. This finding suggests that, in studies of avian migration and its changes over time, the relationship between arrival date and population size needs to be considered.

  11. Is the detection of the first arrival date of migrating birds influenced by population size? A case study of the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tryjanowski, P.; Sparks, T. H.

    Many analyses do not consider the problems associated with the effects of population size on encounter recording. Population size could impact on the detection of bird arrival time as there is a higher probability of observing earlier arrival when the population size is greater and the song activity of birds is increased, as occurs with a larger population. As a case study, we have analysed data on the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio collected in Western Poland during 1983-2000. In this period the red-backed shrike's return to its breeding sites became significantly earlier whilst the contemporary population size increased significantly. To eliminate linear trends through time we have worked on the standardised residuals from regression of both arrival time and population size on year. The correlation between arrival time and population size residuals was significantly negative, further supporting the link between detection and population size. This finding suggests that, in studies of avian migration and its changes over time, the relationship between arrival date and population size needs to be considered.

  12. Breeding Bird Survey and bird banding data: Applications to raptor research and management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.; Bystrak, D.

    1991-01-01

    The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) are sources of information for raptor biologists. The BBS has been conducted each year since 1966 in the United States and Canada; historical bird banding records extend back to the early 20th century. BBS data can be used to document population trends and breeding distributions of many bird species. Banding data are generally collected for specific and local studies of bird populations or behavior. Past use of these data has been limited by their volume and relative inaccessibility. In this paper, we present an overview of BBS and BBL raptor data and their uses, limitations and availability.

  13. Model to Track Wild Birds for Avian Influenza by Means of Population Dynamics and Surveillance Information

    PubMed Central

    Alba, Anna; Bicout, Dominique J.; Vidal, Francesc; Curcó, Antoni; Allepuz, Alberto; Napp, Sebastián; García-Bocanegra, Ignacio; Costa, Taiana; Casal, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV. PMID:22952962

  14. Population dynamics of neotropical migratory birds using agriculture-forest mosaics in Campeche, Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, M.H.; Berlanga, M.; Dawson, D.; Wood, P.; Sauer, J.; Robbins, C.S.

    1995-01-01

    In many areas of the tropics, forests are being converted to agriculture and other uses at a rapid rate. Previous research has documented that forest-breeding migratory birds are distributed across a wide variety of habitat types during midwinter. However, to evaluate the relative importance of different habitat types to wintering birds, we need to examine habitat-specific estimates of survival. During the winter of 1992-1993, mist nets, observations of individually marked birds and point counts were used to sample bird populations in a pasture-forest mosaic in southern Mexico. Sampling was conducted four times throughout the winter on a total of six grids. Twenty nets were run for two days in each grid. A total of 129 species were captured and 3,585 individuals banded. Neotropical migrants made up 31% of the species captured and 47% of the individuals banded. The banding data were used to estimate species richness for permanent and winter residents in different habitats and at different time periods. Capture-recapture models were used to estimate overwintering survival for selected species.

  15. Birds, Birds, Birds!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Braus, Judy, Ed.

    1992-01-01

    Ranger Rick's Nature Scope is a creative education series dedicated to inspiring in children an understanding and appreciation of the natural world while developing the skills they will need to make responsible decisions about the environment. Contents are organized into the following sections: (1) "What Makes a Bird a Bird?," which provides…

  16. No Association between Personality and Candidate Gene Polymorphisms in a Wild Bird Population

    PubMed Central

    Durieux, Gillian; Burke, Terry; Dugdale, Hannah L.

    2015-01-01

    Consistency of between-individual differences in behaviour or personality is a phenomenon in populations that can have ecological consequences and evolutionary potential. One way that behaviour can evolve is to have a genetic basis. Identifying the molecular genetic basis of personality could therefore provide insight into how and why such variation is maintained, particularly in natural populations. Previously identified candidate genes for personality in birds include the dopamine receptor D4 (DRD4), and serotonin transporter (SERT). Studies of wild bird populations have shown that exploratory and bold behaviours are associated with polymorphisms in both DRD4 and SERT. Here we tested for polymorphisms in DRD4 and SERT in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis) population on Cousin Island, Seychelles, and then investigated correlations between personality and polymorphisms in these genes. We found no genetic variation in DRD4, but identified four polymorphisms in SERT that clustered into five haplotypes. There was no correlation between bold or exploratory behaviours and SERT polymorphisms/haplotypes. The null result was not due to lack of power, and indicates that there was no association between these behaviours and variation in the candidate genes tested in this population. These null findings provide important data to facilitate representative future meta-analyses on candidate personality genes. PMID:26473495

  17. Demographic mechanism of a historical bird population collapse reconstructed using museum specimens.

    PubMed

    Green, Rhys E

    2008-10-22

    Long-term studies of demographic rates provide clues about the external causes of animal population declines, but systematic monitoring is rarely in place until after the decline has occurred. This study evaluates alternative hypotheses about the demographic mechanisms underlying the historical collapse of corncrake (Crexcrex) populations in Britain and Ireland in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries using characteristics of museum specimens. The proportion of adult corncrakes that are 1-year old was estimated from feather characteristics of birds collected before, during and after the population decline and showed a marked transitory reduction during the decline. This pattern would be expected if the decline was caused by a large reduction in the recruitment of young birds to the breeding population and is the opposite of what would be expected if a change in adult survival had caused the decline. These results are consistent with previous suggestions that the corncrake population decline was caused by adverse effects on breeding productivity caused by the mechanization of the harvesting of hay crops.

  18. Migratory bird hunter opinions regarding potential management strategies for controlling light goose populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dinges, Andrew J.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Vrtiska, Mark P.; Nilon, Charles H.; Wilhelm Stanis, Sonja A.

    2014-01-01

    We expanded the Nebraska Light Goose Conservation Order (LGCO) harvest survey (NE, USA) in spring 2012 to assess migratory bird hunter opinions regarding future management strategies for controlling light goose populations. Although hunters strongly agreed that population control of light geese was an important wildlife management issue, they were generally unsupportive of wildlife officials using forms of direct control methods to control light goose populations. Respondents who indicated participation in the 2012 LGCO were also less supportive of any form of direct control compared with migratory bird hunters who did not participate in the LGCO. When presented with alternative methods by wildlife officials for future light goose population control, respondents were most supportive of wildlife agencies selectively shooting light geese on migration and wintering areas and least supportive of wildlife officials using bait with approved chemicals to euthanize light geese. A clear understanding of public perception of various potential direct-control options will likely assist wildlife biologists in making informed decisions on how to proceed with population control of light geese.

  19. First evidence and predictions of Plasmodium transmission in Alaskan bird populations.

    PubMed

    Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J; Cornel, Anthony J; Guers, Sue L; Dodge, Molly; Marzec, Timothy; Carlson, Jenny S; Seppi, Bruce; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2012-01-01

    The unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic climate is expected to have major impacts on the emergence of infectious diseases and host susceptibility to these diseases. It is predicted that malaria parasites will spread to both higher altitudes and latitudes with global warming. Here we show for the first time that avian Plasmodium transmission occurs in the North American Arctic. Over a latitudinal gradient in Alaska, from 61°N to 67°N, we collected blood samples of resident and migratory bird species. We found both residents and hatch year birds infected with Plasmodium as far north as 64°N, providing clear evidence that malaria transmission occurs in these climates. Based on our empirical data, we make the first projections of the habitat suitability for Plasmodium under a future-warming scenario in Alaska. These findings raise new concerns about the spread of malaria to naïve host populations.

  20. Assessment of bird populations in a high quality savanna/woodland: a banding approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilmore, Sandra L.; Glowacki, Gary A.; Grundel, Ralph

    2005-01-01

    During the course of this six year study, the fall migration capture rate declined significantly, suggesting that reduced productivity may have occurred in bird populations. There was a positive response during the spring migration to earlier spring wildfires, indicated by high capture rates in 2000 and 2002 that corresponded with fires affecting most of the bird banding net locations. For several common species found at the Miller Woods site, the ratio of juveniles to adults was compared to ratios at other banding stations in the north central U.S. Breeding site fidelity was documented for 20 species, all common breeders. Variation in capture rates among net locations demonstrated the role of the shrub layer within the savanna habitat mosaic during migration stopover.

  1. Relationships between nesting populations of wading birds and wetland habitat features

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erwin, R.M.; Spendelow, J.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Williams, B.K.

    1986-01-01

    We used data from censuses of wading bird colonies on the Atlantic coast from Maine to Florida {1976-1977) to examine relationships between population sizes of wading birds {herons, egrets, ibises) and 9 key habitat features. Variables included features of the colony site {island size, dimensions, isolation from adjacent land) and surrounding (5 km circle) potential feeding habitat {wetland area). Measurements were made on nautical charts using a planimeter. For 122 colonies on islands, 5 multivariate procedures were used. Because of high correlations among habitat variables, a reduced regression model using only 4 variables performed best. The only variable that approached statistical significance (P = 0.06) was land-water interface distance (i.e., wetland 'edge' within the 5 km circle centered on the colony site).

  2. Experimental evaluation of population trend and harvest composition in a Wyoming cougar population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, C.R.; Lindzey, F.G.

    2005-01-01

    Cougar (Puma concolor) management has been hindered by inability to identify population trends. We documented changes in sex and age of harvested cougars during an experimentally induced reduction in population size and subsequent recovery to better understand the relationship between sex-age composition and population trend in exploited populations. The cougar population in the Snowy Range, southeast Wyoming, was reduced by increased harvest (treatment phase) from 58 independent cougars (>1 year old) (90% CI = 36-81) in the autumn of 1998 to 20 by the spring of 2000 (mean exploitation rate = 43%) and then increased to 46 by spring 2003 following 3 years of reduced harvests (mean exploitation rate = 18%). Pretreatment harvest composition was 63% subadults (1.0-2.5 years old), 23% adult males, and 14% adult females (2 seasons; n = 22). A reduction in subadult harvest, an initial increase followed by a reduction in adult male harvest, and a steady increase in adult female harvest characterized harvest composition trends during the treatment phase. Harvest composition was similar at high and low densities when harvest was light, but proportion of harvested subadult males increased at low density as they replaced adult males removed during the treatment period (high harvest). While sex ratio of harvested cougars alone appears of limited value in identifying population change, when combined with age class the 2 appear to provide an index to population change. Composition of the harvest can be applied to adaptively manage cougar populations where adequate sex and age data are collected from harvested animals.

  3. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  4. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  5. Brominated flame retardant trends in aquatic birds from the Salish Sea region of the west coast of North America, including a mini-review of recent trends in marine and estuarine birds.

    PubMed

    Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Guigueno, Mélanie F; Wilson, Laurie K; Lee, Sandi; Idrissi, Abde

    2015-01-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) increased in many matrices during the 1990s and early 2000s. Since voluntary restrictions and regulations on PBDEs were implemented in North America circa early 2000s, decreases in PBDEs have occurred in many of these same matrices. To examine temporal trends in the North Pacific, we retrospectively analysed PBDEs and eight non-PBDE flame retardants (FR) in eggs of two aquatic bird species, great blue herons, Ardea herodias, and double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus, collected along the British Columbia coast, Canada from 1979 to 2012. Increasing PBDE concentrations were observed in both species followed by significant decreases post-2000 for all dominant congeners and ΣPBDE. Non-PBDE FRs were generally undetected in cormorant eggs, or detected at very low levels in heron eggs, except for hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD). HBCDD, currently unregulated in North America, was not detected in early sampling years; however low concentrations were observed in both species in recent sampling years (2003-2012). Dietary tracers (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) did not change significantly over time, indicating that temporal changes in PBDEs are likely caused by implemented regulations. A comparison with recently published temporal trends of ΣPBDE in marine birds from North America and Europe is given.

  6. Brominated flame retardant trends in aquatic birds from the Salish Sea region of the west coast of North America, including a mini-review of recent trends in marine and estuarine birds.

    PubMed

    Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Guigueno, Mélanie F; Wilson, Laurie K; Lee, Sandi; Idrissi, Abde

    2015-01-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) increased in many matrices during the 1990s and early 2000s. Since voluntary restrictions and regulations on PBDEs were implemented in North America circa early 2000s, decreases in PBDEs have occurred in many of these same matrices. To examine temporal trends in the North Pacific, we retrospectively analysed PBDEs and eight non-PBDE flame retardants (FR) in eggs of two aquatic bird species, great blue herons, Ardea herodias, and double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus, collected along the British Columbia coast, Canada from 1979 to 2012. Increasing PBDE concentrations were observed in both species followed by significant decreases post-2000 for all dominant congeners and ΣPBDE. Non-PBDE FRs were generally undetected in cormorant eggs, or detected at very low levels in heron eggs, except for hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD). HBCDD, currently unregulated in North America, was not detected in early sampling years; however low concentrations were observed in both species in recent sampling years (2003-2012). Dietary tracers (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) did not change significantly over time, indicating that temporal changes in PBDEs are likely caused by implemented regulations. A comparison with recently published temporal trends of ΣPBDE in marine birds from North America and Europe is given. PMID:25241209

  7. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  8. Population genetics of Cryptosporidium meleagridis in humans and birds: evidence for cross-species transmission.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuanfei; Yang, Wenli; Cama, Vitaliano; Wang, Lin; Cabrera, Lilia; Ortega, Ynes; Bern, Caryn; Feng, Yaoyu; Gilman, Robert; Xiao, Lihua

    2014-07-01

    Population genetic studies have been used to understand the transmission of pathogens in humans and animals, especially the role of zoonotic infections and evolution and dispersal of virulent subtypes. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity and population structure of Cryptosporidium meleagridis, the only known Cryptosporidium species that infects both avian and mammalian hosts and is responsible for approximately 10% of human cryptosporidiosis in some areas. A total of 62 C. meleagridis specimens from children, AIDS patients, and birds in Lima, Peru were characterised by sequence analysis of the ssrRNA gene and five minisatellite, microsatellite and polymorphic markers in chromosome 6, including the 60 kDa glycoprotein (gp60), 47 kDa glycoprotein (CP47), a serine repeat antigen (MSC6-5), retinitis pigmentosa GTPase regulator (RPGR) and thrombospondin protein 8 (TSP8). The multilocus sequence analysis identified concurrent infections with Cryptosporidium hominis in four AIDS patients and three children. Unique subtypes of C. meleagridis ranged from eight at the gp60 locus (gene diversity -Hd=0.651), three at the RPGR (Hd=0.556), three at the MSC6-5 locus (Hd=0.242), two at TSP8 (Hd=0.198), to one at CP47 (monomorphic), much lower than that of C. hominis in the same area. Intragenic linkage disequilibrium was strong and complete at all gene loci. Intergenic linkage disequilibrium was highly significant (P<0.001) for all pairs of polymorphic loci. Two major groups of subtypes were seen, with most subtypes belonging to group 1. Within group 1, there was no clear population segregation, and two of the 14 multilocus subtypes of C. meleagridis were found in both AIDS patients and birds. We believe that these results provide the first evidence of a clonal population structure of C. meleagridis and the likely occurrence of cross-species transmission of C. meleagridis between birds and humans.

  9. West Nile virus emergence and large-scale declines of North American bird populations.

    PubMed

    LaDeau, Shannon L; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Marra, Peter P

    2007-06-01

    Emerging infectious diseases present a formidable challenge to the conservation of native species in the twenty-first century. Diseases caused by introduced pathogens have had large impacts on species abundances, including the American chestnut, Hawaiian bird species and many amphibians. Changes in host population sizes can lead to marked shifts in community composition and ecosystem functioning. However, identifying the impacts of an introduced disease and distinguishing it from other forces that influence population dynamics (for example, climate) is challenging and requires abundance data that extend before and after the introduction. Here we use 26 yr of Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data to determine the impact of West Nile virus (WNV) on 20 potential avian hosts across North America. We demonstrate significant changes in population trajectories for seven species from four families that concur with a priori predictions and the spatio-temporal intensity of pathogen transmission. The American crow population declined by up to 45% since WNV arrival, and only two of the seven species with documented impact recovered to pre-WNV levels by 2005. Our findings demonstrate the potential impacts of an invasive species on a diverse faunal assemblage across broad geographical scales, and underscore the complexity of subsequent community response.

  10. Population declines in North American birds that migrate to the neotropics.

    PubMed Central

    Robbins, C S; Sauer, J R; Greenberg, R S; Droege, S

    1989-01-01

    Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we determined that most neotropical migrant bird species that breed in forests of the eastern United States and Canada have recently (1978-1987) declined in abundance after a period of stable or increasing populations. Most permanent residents and temperate-zone migrants did not show a general pattern of decrease during this period. Field data from Mexico were used to classify a subset of the neotropical migrants as using forest or scrub habitats during winter. Population declines during 1978-1987 were significantly greater among the forest-wintering species, while populations of scrub-wintering species increased. The same subset of neotropical migrants also showed overall declines in forest-breeding species, but no significant differences existed between species breeding in forest and scrub habitats. Neotropical migrant species that primarily use forested habitats in either wintering or breeding areas are declining, but a statistically significant association between habitat and population declines was detected only in the tropics. PMID:2798430

  11. How a trend towards a stationary population affects consumer demand.

    PubMed

    Espenshade, T J

    1978-03-01

    Abstract During the great depression of the 1930seconomists in both the United States and Europe tried to analyse the economic consequences of declining rates of population growth. Not only were birth rates in many industrial countries at the lowest levels ever, but they coincided with high rates of unemployment. Of the many economists who held that demographic trends were partly responsible for the adverse economic conditions, a prominent example was John Maynard Keynes. According to his so-called stagnation thesis, population growth stimulates investment demand in two ways: more people need more goods and services and, hence, more investment in factories and machinery; and with population growing, businessmen are more likely to regard their investment misallocations as less serious than when the growth is slow or nil.(1)A minority of writers were more optimistic about the economic consequences of slower rates of population growth. For example, Thompson argued that with a lower ratio of consumers to producers the population would enjoy a higher standard of living and the education of children should improve.(2).

  12. Dynamics of low and high pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic bird populations.

    PubMed

    Tuncer, Necibe; Torres, Juan; Martcheva, Maia; Barfield, Michael; Holt, Robert D

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a time-since-recovery structured, multi-strain, multi-population model of avian influenza. Influenza A viruses infect many species of wild and domestic birds and are classified into two groups based on their ability to cause disease: low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Prior infection with LPAI provides partial immunity towards HPAI. The model introduced in this paper structures LPAI-recovered birds (wild and domestic) with time-since-recovery and includes cross-immunity towards HPAI that can fade with time. The model has a unique disease-free equilibrium (DFE), unique LPAI-only and HPAI-only equilibria and at least one coexistence equilibrium. We compute the reproduction numbers of LPAI ([Formula: see text]) and HPAI ([Formula: see text]) and show that the DFE is locally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. A unique LPAI-only (HPAI-only) equilibrium exists when [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and it is locally asymptotically stable if HPAI (LPAI) cannot invade the equilibrium, that is, if the invasion number [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]). We show using numerical simulations that the ODE version of the model, which is obtained by discarding the time-since-recovery structures (making cross-immunity constant), can exhibit oscillations, and also that the pathogens LPAI and HPAI can coexist with sustained oscillations in both populations. Through simulations, we show that even if both populations (wild and domestic) are sinks when alone, LPAI and HPAI can persist in both populations combined. Thus, reducing the reproduction numbers of LPAI and HPAI in each population to below unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. The pathogens can continue to coexist in both populations unless transmission between the populations is reduced. PMID:26667351

  13. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio. PMID:26014526

  14. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Cornman, Robert S.; Kenneth L. Jones,; Fike, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The πZ/πA ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that NeZ/NeA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  15. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  16. Recent trends of the population in the Soviet Union.

    PubMed

    Kono, S

    1990-10-01

    The author, who attended a UN seminar held in the USSR, reports on the recent trends of population dynamics in the host country, the 3rd most populous nation in the world. In 1989, the USSR's population was 286.72 million, up from 262.44 million in 1979. 51.4% of the population lives in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, an intriguing fact considering that there are a total of 15 republics in the USSR. Moreover, 3 republics (Russia, the Ukraine, and Byelorussia) account for 73.2% of the country's total population. The author questions reports that the Ukraine is seeking independence, noting the similarity in ethnicity and language between the Ukrainians and Russians. However, the author acknowledges cultural differences between Russia and the Baltic republics (latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia). Differences also exist between republics concerning fertility rates. While Russia, Byelorussia, and the Baltic states have a total fertility of 2.1 (net replacement fertility), minority republics in the southern region have dramatically higher fertility rates: 5.5 for Tajik, 4.7 for Uzbek and Turkemia, and 4.1 in Kyrgyz. Another significant fact of the USSR's population dynamics is its stagnant, or even retarded, life expectancy. Between 1960-70, life expectancy was 64.4 for men and 73.4 for women. Between 1979-80, these figures dropped to 62.2 and 72.5, respectively. They somewhat recovered during 1985-86, increasing to 64.2 for men and 73.3 for women. Throughout the USSR, but especially in Russia, there is a wide disparity in the life expectancy between men and women (as high as 11.5 years in Russia from (1979-80). In his visit, the author found that Soviet demographers and statisticians spoke candidly and openly, reflecting the changes brought about by perestroika and glasnost. PMID:12316754

  17. Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population.

    PubMed

    Pulido, Francisco; Berthold, Peter

    2010-04-20

    Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution, abundance, and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds, but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic adjustments are largely unknown. This knowledge is still crucial to predict whether populations of migratory birds will adapt to a rapid increase in temperature. We monitored migratory behavior in a population of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) to test for evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Using a common garden experiment in time and captive breeding we demonstrated a genetic reduction in migratory activity and evolutionary change in phenotypic plasticity of migration onset. An artificial selection experiment further revealed that residency will rapidly evolve in completely migratory bird populations if selection for shorter migration distance persists. Our findings suggest that current alterations of the environment are favoring birds wintering closer to the breeding grounds and that populations of migratory birds have strongly responded to these changes in selection. The reduction of migratory activity is probably an important evolutionary process in the adaptation of migratory birds to climate change, because it reduces migration costs and facilitates the rapid adjustment to the shifts in the timing of food availability during reproduction.

  18. Abundance-area relationships in bird assemblages along an Afrotropical elevational gradient: space limitation in montane forest selects for higher population densities.

    PubMed

    Ferenc, Michal; Fjeldså, Jon; Sedláček, Ondřej; Motombi, Francis Njie; Djomo Nana, Eric; Mudrová, Karolína; Hořák, David

    2016-05-01

    The usual positive inter-specific relationship between range size and abundance of local populations can have notable exceptions in Afrotropical montane areas, where range-restricted bird species are unusually abundant. We tested how the area occupied locally by passerines and their geographic range size relate to local abundances along a tropical elevational gradient of Mt Cameroon, West-Central Africa. Data on bird assemblages were collected at six forested elevations (350, 650, 1100, 1500, 1850 m, 2200 m a.s.l.) using a standardised point count at 16 locations per elevation. Elevational ranges of birds were compiled from published sources and their geographic range sizes were determined as the occupancy of 1° x 1° grid cells. The observed relationship between local abundance and geographic range size within the entire passerine assemblage on Mt Cameroon disagrees with the most frequently reported positive pattern. However, the patterns differ among elevations, with positive trends of the abundance-range size relationship in lowland changing to negative trends towards higher elevations. Interestingly, the total assemblage abundances do not differ much among elevations and population size estimates of species occupying different parts of the gradient remain relatively constant. These patterns are caused by relatively high abundances of montane species, which might be a result of long-term ecological specialization and/or competitive release in species-poor montane locations and possibly facilitated by an extinction filter. Our data suggest that montane species' abilities to maintain dense populations might compensate for less area available near mountain tops and help these populations to circumvent extinction. PMID:26801494

  19. Are southern California's fragmented saltmarshes capable of sustaining endemic bird populations?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, A.N.; ,

    2006-01-01

    Loss of coastal saltmarshes in southern California has been estimated at 75-90% since presettlement times. The remaining wetlands are mostly fragmented and degraded, and most frequently have harsh edges adjacent to urban landscapes. Non-migratory Belding's Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi) and Light-footed Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris levipes) are endemic to saltmarshes in southern California and Baja California, Mexico. Population sizes of Belding's Savannah Sparrows show a positive relationship with saltmarsh area, but few large wetland fragments remain within their range in California. Belding's Savannah Sparrows are sensitive to fragmentation and isolation, with small isolated marshes acting as population sinks. In addition, this subspecies shows low genetic variability, limited dispersal, and small effective population sizes. Light-footed Clapper Rails are habitat specialists, found in marshes with good tidal flushing that support California cordgrass (Spartina foliosa) habitats. Light-footed Clapper rails also show low genetic variability and limited dispersal and the remnant populations of clapper rails are relatively isolated from one another. Large wetland complexes may serve as population sources for both species, while small, isolated marshes may act as population sinks but more research is needed to estimate and model the dynamics of these two metapopulations. Mitigation for wetland loss and restoration projects should not be evaluated simply by presence of rare bird species alone, but instead efforts should be made to determine population sustainability.

  20. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  1. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine A.; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds. PMID:26569108

  2. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Drum, Ryan G; Ribic, Christine A; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds. PMID:26569108

  3. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Drum, Ryan G; Ribic, Christine A; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  4. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.

  5. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States. PMID:22010811

  6. Quantifying drivers of population dynamics for a migratory bird throughout the annual cycle.

    PubMed

    Rushing, Clark S; Ryder, Thomas B; Marra, Peter P

    2016-01-27

    Worldwide, migratory species are undergoing rapid declines but understanding the factors driving these declines is hindered by missing information about migratory connectivity and the lack of data to quantify environmental processes across the annual cycle. Here, we combined range-wide information about migratory connectivity with global remote-sensing data to quantify the relative importance of breeding and non-breeding environmental processes to persistent long-term population declines of a migratory songbird, the wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). Consistent with theoretical predictions about population limitation of migratory birds, our results suggest that habitat loss and climate have contributed to the observed declines in wood thrush breeding abundance, yet the relative importance of breeding versus non-breeding factors is population-specific. For example, high-abundance core breeding populations appear to be more limited by habitat loss, whereas low-abundance, peripheral populations appear to be limited by climate-driven seasonal interactions. Further, our analysis indicates that the relative impact of breeding habitat loss is at least three to six times greater than the impact of equivalent non-breeding habitat loss and therefore the steepest regional declines have likely been driven by the loss of breeding habitat. These results underscore the need for population-specific conservation strategies implemented throughout the annual cycle to reverse long-term declines.

  7. Quantifying drivers of population dynamics for a migratory bird throughout the annual cycle.

    PubMed

    Rushing, Clark S; Ryder, Thomas B; Marra, Peter P

    2016-01-27

    Worldwide, migratory species are undergoing rapid declines but understanding the factors driving these declines is hindered by missing information about migratory connectivity and the lack of data to quantify environmental processes across the annual cycle. Here, we combined range-wide information about migratory connectivity with global remote-sensing data to quantify the relative importance of breeding and non-breeding environmental processes to persistent long-term population declines of a migratory songbird, the wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). Consistent with theoretical predictions about population limitation of migratory birds, our results suggest that habitat loss and climate have contributed to the observed declines in wood thrush breeding abundance, yet the relative importance of breeding versus non-breeding factors is population-specific. For example, high-abundance core breeding populations appear to be more limited by habitat loss, whereas low-abundance, peripheral populations appear to be limited by climate-driven seasonal interactions. Further, our analysis indicates that the relative impact of breeding habitat loss is at least three to six times greater than the impact of equivalent non-breeding habitat loss and therefore the steepest regional declines have likely been driven by the loss of breeding habitat. These results underscore the need for population-specific conservation strategies implemented throughout the annual cycle to reverse long-term declines. PMID:26817774

  8. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. Cecal populations of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria and Escherichia coli populations after in vivo Escherichia coli challenge in birds fed diets with purified lignin or mannanoligosaccharides.

    PubMed

    Baurhoo, B; Letellier, A; Zhao, X; Ruiz-Feria, C A

    2007-12-01

    Two experiments were conducted to evaluate lignin and mannanoligosaccharides as alternatives to antibiotic growth promoters in broilers. Dietary treatments for the 2 studies were 1) negative control (CTL-, antibiotic free); 2) positive control (CTL+, diet 1 + 11 mg of virginiamycin/kg); 3) mannanoligosaccharide (MOS; diet 1 + BioMos: 0.2% to 21 d and 0.1% thereafter); 4) LL (diet 1 + 1.25% Alcell lignin); and 5) HL (diet 1 + 2.5% Alcell lignin). In experiment 1, each treatment was assigned to 4 pen replicates (52 birds each). Body weight and feed intake were recorded weekly for 38 d. At 28 and 38 d, cecal contents were assayed for lactobacilli and bifidobacteria. Body weight and feed intake did not differ among dietary treatments. At d 38, the lactobacilli population was greatest (P < 0.05) in birds fed MOS, whereas LL-fed birds had greater (P < 0.05) lactobacilli load than those fed CTL+. Bifidobacteria load was greater (P < 0.05) in birds fed MOS or LL compared with those fed CTL+ at both d 28 and 38. However, at d 28 and 38, lactobacilli and bifidobacteria loads were lowest (P < 0.05) in CTL+ or HL-fed birds. In experiment 2, 21-d-old birds from the initial flock were transferred to cages for oral Escherichia coli (O2 and O88 serotypes) challenge (12 birds/treatment). After 3, 6, and 9 d, cecal loads of E. coli were determined. Birds fed HL had a lower E. coli load (P < 0.05) than birds fed CTL- or CTL+ at d 3, and lower than birds fed CTL- at d 6. At d 9, the E. coli load was lower (P < 0.05) in birds fed MOS or HL than in those fed the CTL- or CTL+ diets; LL-fed birds had lower E. coli load than those fed CTL-. Birds fed MOS or LL had a comparative advantage over CTL+ birds in increasing populations of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria and lowering E. coli loads after challenge. PMID:18029796

  10. Hair mercury levels in Amazonian populations: spatial distribution and trends

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Mercury is present in the Amazonian aquatic environments from both natural and anthropogenic sources. As a consequence, many riverside populations are exposed to methylmercury, a highly toxic organic form of mercury, because of their intense fish consumption. Many studies have analysed this exposure from different approaches since the early nineties. This review aims to systematize the information in spatial distribution, comparing hair mercury levels by studied population and Amazonian river basin, looking for exposure trends. Methods The reviewed papers were selected from scientific databases and online libraries. We included studies with a direct measure of hair mercury concentrations in a sample size larger than 10 people, without considering the objectives, approach of the study or mercury speciation. The results are presented in tables and maps by river basin, displaying hair mercury levels and specifying the studied population and health impact, if any. Results The majority of the studies have been carried out in communities from the central Amazonian regions, particularly on the Tapajós River basin. The results seem quite variable; hair mercury means range from 1.1 to 34.2 μg/g. Most studies did not show any significant difference in hair mercury levels by gender or age. Overall, authors emphasized fish consumption frequency as the main risk factor of exposure. The most studied adverse health effect is by far the neurological performance, especially motricity. However, it is not possible to conclude on the relation between hair mercury levels and health impact in the Amazonian situation because of the relatively small number of studies. Conclusions Hair mercury levels in the Amazonian regions seem to be very heterogenic, depending on several factors. There is no obvious spatial trend and there are many areas that have never been studied. Taking into account the low mercury levels currently handled as acceptable, the majority of the Amazonian

  11. West Nile virus and greater sage-grouse: estimating infection rate in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Walker, Brett L; Naugle, David E; Doherty, Kevin E; Cornish, Todd E

    2007-09-01

    Understanding impacts of disease on wild bird populations requires knowing not only mortality rate following infection, but also the proportion of the population that is infected. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in western North America are known to have a high mortality rate following infection with West Nile virus (WNv), but actual infection rates in wild populations remain unknown. We used rates of WNv-related mortality and seroprevalence from radiomarked females to estimate infection rates in a wild greater sage-grouse population in the Powder River basin (PRB) of Montana and Wyoming from 2003 to 2005. Minimum WNv-related mortality rates ranged from 2.4% to 13.3% among years and maximum possible rates ranged from 8.2% to 28.9%. All live-captured birds in 2003 and 2004 tested seronegative. In spring 2005 and spring 2006, 10.3% and 1.8% respectively, of newly captured females tested seropositive for neutralizing antibodies to WNv. These are the first documented cases of sage-grouse surviving infection with WNv. Low to moderate WNv-related mortality in summer followed by low seroprevalence the following spring in all years indicates that annual infection rates were between 4% and 29%. This suggests that most sage-grouse in the PRB have not yet been exposed and remain susceptible. Impacts of WNv in the PRB in the near future will likely depend more on annual variation in temperature and changes in vector distribution than on the spread of resistance. Until the epizootiology of WNv in sagebrush-steppe ecosystems is better understood, we suggest that management to reduce impacts of WNv focus on eliminating man-made water sources that support breeding mosquitoes known to vector the virus. Our findings also underscore problems with using seroprevalence as a surrogate for infection rate and for identifying competent hosts in highly susceptible species.

  12. Population trends in the European Community, 1960-1986.

    PubMed

    Chesnais, J C

    1988-07-01

    Recent trends in fertility, marriage patterns and family formation in the 12 nations of the European Community are discussed. The total period fertility rate in this group of nations has dropped sharply (42%) since 1960, so that the annual growth was 0.15% in 1986. Immigration and the rate of mortality decline have also slowed. There are some variations in regional or national fertility, and in population growth as a result of age structure. The rate of population growth is slowing in all nations except Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The U.K., Belgium, Luxembourg and Denmark have experienced zero growth since 1980. Italy is close to zero growth. France, Netherlands and Spain have higher growth due to age structure. Ireland continues to grow at 1% yearly. In general, large families are disappearing, although different patterns are evident in various states. France shows high progression to the 1st child; many German couples choose to remain childless. People are marrying older, remaining unmarried, divorcing sooner, cohabiting before or after marriage. Non-marital births are common, especially in nordic countries, but still rare in Mediterranean countries. The restricted family norm, of 0, 1, or 2 children is becoming uniform, resulting in fertility well below, 15-40% of replacement.

  13. High Genetic Diversity of Newcastle Disease Virus in Wild and Domestic Birds in Northeastern China from 2013 to 2015 Reveals Potential Epidemic Trends

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Pingze; Xie, Guangyao; Liu, Xinxin; Ai, Lili; Chen, Yanyu; Meng, Xin; Bi, Yuhai; Chen, Jianjun; Sun, Yuzhang; Stoeger, Tobias; Ding, Zhuang

    2015-01-01

    Newcastle disease (ND), caused by the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV), is one of the most important viral diseases of birds globally, but little is currently known regarding enzootic trends of NDV in northeastern China, especially for class I viruses. Thus, we performed a surveillance study for NDV in northeastern China from 2013 to 2015. A total 755 samples from wild and domestic birds in wetlands and live bird markets (LBMs) were collected, and 10 isolates of NDV were identified. Genetic and phylogenetic analyses showed that five isolates from LBMs belong to class I subgenotype 1b, two (one from wild birds and one from LBMs) belong to the vaccine-like class II genotype II, and three (all from wild birds) belong to class II subgenotype Ib. Interestingly, the five class I isolates had epidemiological connections with viruses from southern, eastern, and southeastern China. Our findings, together with recent prevalence trends of class I and virulent class II NDV in China, suggest possible virus transmission between wild and domestic birds and the potential for an NDV epidemic in the future. PMID:26712543

  14. High Genetic Diversity of Newcastle Disease Virus in Wild and Domestic Birds in Northeastern China from 2013 to 2015 Reveals Potential Epidemic Trends.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Pingze; Xie, Guangyao; Liu, Xinxin; Ai, Lili; Chen, Yanyu; Meng, Xin; Bi, Yuhai; Chen, Jianjun; Sun, Yuzhang; Stoeger, Tobias; Ding, Zhuang; Yin, Renfu

    2016-03-01

    Newcastle disease (ND), caused by the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV), is one of the most important viral diseases of birds globally, but little is currently known regarding enzootic trends of NDV in northeastern China, especially for class I viruses. Thus, we performed a surveillance study for NDV in northeastern China from 2013 to 2015. A total 755 samples from wild and domestic birds in wetlands and live bird markets (LBMs) were collected, and 10 isolates of NDV were identified. Genetic and phylogenetic analyses showed that five isolates from LBMs belong to class I subgenotype 1b, two (one from wild birds and one from LBMs) belong to the vaccine-like class II genotype II, and three (all from wild birds) belong to class II subgenotype Ib. Interestingly, the five class I isolates had epidemiological connections with viruses from southern, eastern, and southeastern China. Our findings, together with recent prevalence trends of class I and virulent class II NDV in China, suggest possible virus transmission between wild and domestic birds and the potential for an NDV epidemic in the future. PMID:26712543

  15. High Genetic Diversity of Newcastle Disease Virus in Wild and Domestic Birds in Northeastern China from 2013 to 2015 Reveals Potential Epidemic Trends.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Pingze; Xie, Guangyao; Liu, Xinxin; Ai, Lili; Chen, Yanyu; Meng, Xin; Bi, Yuhai; Chen, Jianjun; Sun, Yuzhang; Stoeger, Tobias; Ding, Zhuang; Yin, Renfu

    2015-12-28

    Newcastle disease (ND), caused by the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV), is one of the most important viral diseases of birds globally, but little is currently known regarding enzootic trends of NDV in northeastern China, especially for class I viruses. Thus, we performed a surveillance study for NDV in northeastern China from 2013 to 2015. A total 755 samples from wild and domestic birds in wetlands and live bird markets (LBMs) were collected, and 10 isolates of NDV were identified. Genetic and phylogenetic analyses showed that five isolates from LBMs belong to class I subgenotype 1b, two (one from wild birds and one from LBMs) belong to the vaccine-like class II genotype II, and three (all from wild birds) belong to class II subgenotype Ib. Interestingly, the five class I isolates had epidemiological connections with viruses from southern, eastern, and southeastern China. Our findings, together with recent prevalence trends of class I and virulent class II NDV in China, suggest possible virus transmission between wild and domestic birds and the potential for an NDV epidemic in the future.

  16. Trends in the exploitation of South Atlantic shark populations.

    PubMed

    Barreto, Rodrigo; Ferretti, Francesco; Flemming, Joanna M; Amorim, Alberto; Andrade, Humber; Worm, Boris; Lessa, Rosangela

    2016-08-01

    Approximately 25% of globally reported shark catches occur in Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries. Strong declines in shark populations have been detected in the North Atlantic, whereas in the South Atlantic the situation is less clear, although fishing effort has been increasing in this region since the late 1970s. We synthesized information on shark catch rates (based on 871,177 sharks caught on 86,492 longline sets) for the major species caught by multiple fleets in the South Atlantic between 1979 and 2011. We complied records from fishing logbooks of fishing companies, fishers, and onboard observers that were supplied to Brazilian institutions. By using exploratory data analysis and literature sources, we identified 3 phases of exploitation in these data (Supporting Information). From 1979 to 1997 (phase A), 5 fleets (40 vessels) fished mainly for tunas. From 1998 to 2008 (phase B), 20 fleets (100 vessels) fished for tunas, swordfishes, and sharks. From 2008 to 2011 (phase C), 3 fleets (30 vessels) fished for multiple species, but restrictive measures were implemented. We used generalized linear models to standardize catch rates and identify trends in each of these phases. Shark catch rates increased from 1979 to 1997, when fishing effort was low, decreased from 1998 to 2008, when fishing effort increased substantially, and remained stable or increased from 2008 to 2011, when fishing effort was again low. Our results indicate that most shark populations affected by longlines in the South Atlantic are currently depleted, but these populations may recover if fishing effort is reduced accordingly. In this context, it is problematic that comprehensive data collection, monitoring, and management of these fisheries ceased after 2012. Concurrently with the fact that Brazil is newly identified by FAO among the largest (and in fastest expansion) shark sub-products consumer market worldwide.

  17. Trends in the exploitation of South Atlantic shark populations.

    PubMed

    Barreto, Rodrigo; Ferretti, Francesco; Flemming, Joanna M; Amorim, Alberto; Andrade, Humber; Worm, Boris; Lessa, Rosangela

    2016-08-01

    Approximately 25% of globally reported shark catches occur in Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries. Strong declines in shark populations have been detected in the North Atlantic, whereas in the South Atlantic the situation is less clear, although fishing effort has been increasing in this region since the late 1970s. We synthesized information on shark catch rates (based on 871,177 sharks caught on 86,492 longline sets) for the major species caught by multiple fleets in the South Atlantic between 1979 and 2011. We complied records from fishing logbooks of fishing companies, fishers, and onboard observers that were supplied to Brazilian institutions. By using exploratory data analysis and literature sources, we identified 3 phases of exploitation in these data (Supporting Information). From 1979 to 1997 (phase A), 5 fleets (40 vessels) fished mainly for tunas. From 1998 to 2008 (phase B), 20 fleets (100 vessels) fished for tunas, swordfishes, and sharks. From 2008 to 2011 (phase C), 3 fleets (30 vessels) fished for multiple species, but restrictive measures were implemented. We used generalized linear models to standardize catch rates and identify trends in each of these phases. Shark catch rates increased from 1979 to 1997, when fishing effort was low, decreased from 1998 to 2008, when fishing effort increased substantially, and remained stable or increased from 2008 to 2011, when fishing effort was again low. Our results indicate that most shark populations affected by longlines in the South Atlantic are currently depleted, but these populations may recover if fishing effort is reduced accordingly. In this context, it is problematic that comprehensive data collection, monitoring, and management of these fisheries ceased after 2012. Concurrently with the fact that Brazil is newly identified by FAO among the largest (and in fastest expansion) shark sub-products consumer market worldwide. PMID:26634410

  18. Birds of prey as limiting factors of gamebird populations in Europe: a review.

    PubMed

    Valkama, Jari; Korpimäki, Erkki; Arroyo, Beatriz; Beja, Pedro; Bretagnolle, Vincent; Bro, Elisabeth; Kenward, Robert; Mañosa, Santi; Redpath, Stephen M; Thirgood, Simon; Viñuela, Javier

    2005-05-01

    Whether predators can limit their prey has been a topic of scientific debate for decades. Traditionally it was believed that predators take only wounded, sick, old or otherwise low-quality individuals, and thus have little impact on prey populations. However, there is increasing evidence that, at least under certain circumstances, vertebrate predators may indeed limit prey numbers. This potential role of predators as limiting factors of prey populations has created conflicts between predators and human hunters, because the hunters may see predators as competitors for the same resources. A particularly acute conflict has emerged over the past few decades between gamebird hunters and birds of prey in Europe. As a part of a European-wide research project, we reviewed literature on the relationships between birds of prey and gamebirds. We start by analysing available data on the diets of 52 European raptor and owl species. There are some 32 species, mostly specialist predators feeding on small mammals, small passerine birds or insects, which never or very rarely include game animals (e.g. hares, rabbits, gamebirds) in their diet. A second group (20 species) consists of medium-sized and large raptors which prey on game, but for which the proportion in the diet varies temporally and spatially. Only three raptor species can have rather large proportions of gamebirds in their diet, and another seven species may utilise gamebirds locally to a great extent. We point out that the percentage of a given prey species in the diet of an avian predator does not necessarily reflect the impact of that predator on densities of prey populations. Next, we summarise available data on the numerical responses of avian predators to changing gamebird numbers. In half of these studies, no numerical response was found, while in the remainder a response was detected such that either raptor density or breeding success increased with density of gamebirds. Data on the functional responses of

  19. Birds of prey as limiting factors of gamebird populations in Europe: a review.

    PubMed

    Valkama, Jari; Korpimäki, Erkki; Arroyo, Beatriz; Beja, Pedro; Bretagnolle, Vincent; Bro, Elisabeth; Kenward, Robert; Mañosa, Santi; Redpath, Stephen M; Thirgood, Simon; Viñuela, Javier

    2005-05-01

    Whether predators can limit their prey has been a topic of scientific debate for decades. Traditionally it was believed that predators take only wounded, sick, old or otherwise low-quality individuals, and thus have little impact on prey populations. However, there is increasing evidence that, at least under certain circumstances, vertebrate predators may indeed limit prey numbers. This potential role of predators as limiting factors of prey populations has created conflicts between predators and human hunters, because the hunters may see predators as competitors for the same resources. A particularly acute conflict has emerged over the past few decades between gamebird hunters and birds of prey in Europe. As a part of a European-wide research project, we reviewed literature on the relationships between birds of prey and gamebirds. We start by analysing available data on the diets of 52 European raptor and owl species. There are some 32 species, mostly specialist predators feeding on small mammals, small passerine birds or insects, which never or very rarely include game animals (e.g. hares, rabbits, gamebirds) in their diet. A second group (20 species) consists of medium-sized and large raptors which prey on game, but for which the proportion in the diet varies temporally and spatially. Only three raptor species can have rather large proportions of gamebirds in their diet, and another seven species may utilise gamebirds locally to a great extent. We point out that the percentage of a given prey species in the diet of an avian predator does not necessarily reflect the impact of that predator on densities of prey populations. Next, we summarise available data on the numerical responses of avian predators to changing gamebird numbers. In half of these studies, no numerical response was found, while in the remainder a response was detected such that either raptor density or breeding success increased with density of gamebirds. Data on the functional responses of

  20. Migratory connectivity and population-specific migration routes in a long-distance migratory bird

    PubMed Central

    Trierweiler, Christiane; Klaassen, Raymond H. G.; Drent, Rudi H.; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Komdeur, Jan; Bairlein, Franz; Koks, Ben J.

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge about migratory connectivity, the degree to which individuals from the same breeding site migrate to the same wintering site, is essential to understand processes affecting populations of migrants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we study the migration system of a long-distance migratory bird, the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, by tracking individuals from different breeding populations throughout northern Europe. We identified three main migration routes towards wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Wintering areas and migration routes of different breeding populations overlapped, a pattern best described by ‘weak (diffuse) connectivity’. Migratory performance, i.e. timing, duration, distance and speed of migration, was surprisingly similar for the three routes despite differences in habitat characteristics. This study provides, to our knowledge, a first comprehensive overview of the migration system of a Palaearctic-African long-distance migrant. We emphasize the importance of spatial scale (e.g. distances between breeding populations) in defining patterns of connectivity and suggest that knowledge about fundamental aspects determining distribution patterns, such as the among-individual variation in mean migration directions, is required to ultimately understand migratory connectivity. Furthermore, we stress that for conservation purposes it is pivotal to consider wintering areas as well as migration routes and in particular stopover sites. PMID:24430850

  1. Epidemiology of the Emergent Disease Paridae pox in an Intensively Studied Wild Bird Population

    PubMed Central

    Lachish, Shelly; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

    2012-01-01

    Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major) reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%), but was far less prevalent (<1%) in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species. Nonlinear smoothing models revealed that the temporal pattern of prevalence among great tits was characterised by within-year fluctuations indicative of seasonal forcing of infection rates, which was likely driven by multiple environmental and demographic factors. There was individual heterogeneity in the course of infection and, although recovery was possible, diseased individuals were far less likely to be recaptured than healthy individuals, suggesting a survival cost of infection. This study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring for obtaining key epidemiological data necessary to understand disease dynamics, spread and persistence in natural populations. PMID:23185230

  2. Migratory connectivity and population-specific migration routes in a long-distance migratory bird.

    PubMed

    Trierweiler, Christiane; Klaassen, Raymond H G; Drent, Rudi H; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Komdeur, Jan; Bairlein, Franz; Koks, Ben J

    2014-03-01

    Knowledge about migratory connectivity, the degree to which individuals from the same breeding site migrate to the same wintering site, is essential to understand processes affecting populations of migrants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we study the migration system of a long-distance migratory bird, the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, by tracking individuals from different breeding populations throughout northern Europe. We identified three main migration routes towards wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Wintering areas and migration routes of different breeding populations overlapped, a pattern best described by 'weak (diffuse) connectivity'. Migratory performance, i.e. timing, duration, distance and speed of migration, was surprisingly similar for the three routes despite differences in habitat characteristics. This study provides, to our knowledge, a first comprehensive overview of the migration system of a Palaearctic-African long-distance migrant. We emphasize the importance of spatial scale (e.g. distances between breeding populations) in defining patterns of connectivity and suggest that knowledge about fundamental aspects determining distribution patterns, such as the among-individual variation in mean migration directions, is required to ultimately understand migratory connectivity. Furthermore, we stress that for conservation purposes it is pivotal to consider wintering areas as well as migration routes and in particular stopover sites.

  3. Effects of five-year DDT application on breeding bird population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Springer, P.F.; Webster, C.G.

    1951-01-01

    Aerial applications of DDT in oil at the rate of 2 pounds per acre applied over a four-year interval on bottomland forest resulted in a 26 percent decrease in the breeding bird population by the fifth spring. The American redstart, parula warbler, and red-eyed vireo suffered decreases of 44 percent, 40. percent, and 28 percent, respectively, over the four-year period. Only the redstart decreased significantly immediately following application of the spray; a few days after the first, second, and fifth annual sprayings an average of 23 percent of redstart territories were deserted. No significant decrease was observed for other species, either immediately following spraying, or over the four-year period.

  4. Second generation anticoagulant rodenticides in predatory birds: Probabilistic characterisation of toxic liver concentrations and implications for predatory bird populations in Canada.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Philippe J; Mineau, Pierre; Shore, Richard F; Champoux, Louise; Martin, Pamela A; Wilson, Laurie K; Fitzgerald, Guy; Elliott, John E

    2011-07-01

    Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) are widely used to control rodent pests but exposure and poisonings occur in non-target species, such as birds of prey. Liver residues are often analysed to detect exposure in birds found dead but their use to assess toxicity of SGARs is problematic. We analysed published data on hepatic rodenticide residues and associated symptoms of anticoagulant poisoning from 270 birds of prey using logistic regression to estimate the probability of toxicosis associated with different liver SGAR residues. We also evaluated exposure to SGARs on a national level in Canada by analysing 196 livers from great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) and red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) found dead at locations across the country. Analysis of a broader sample of raptor species from Quebec also helped define the taxonomic breadth of contamination. Calculated probability curves suggest significant species differences in sensitivity to SGARs and significant likelihood of toxicosis below previously suggested concentrations of concern (<0.1mg/kg). Analysis of birds from Quebec showed that a broad range of raptor species are exposed to SGARs, indicating that generalised terrestrial food chains could be contaminated in the vicinity of the sampled areas. Of the two species for which we had samples from across Canada, great horned owls are exposed to SGARs to a greater extent than red-tailed hawks and the liver residue levels were also higher. Using our probability estimates of effect, we estimate that a minimum of 11% of the sampled great horned owl population is at risk of being directly killed by SGARs. This is the first time the potential mortality impact of SGARs on a raptor population has been estimated. PMID:21481471

  5. Selenium teratogenesis in natural populations of aquatic birds in central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoffman, D.J.; Ohlendorf, H.M.; Aldrich, T.W.

    1988-01-01

    The frequency and types of malformations are described that were encountered during the spring of 1983 in a natural population of aquatic birds exposed to agricultural drainwater ponds and food items containing high concentrations of selenium in central California. A total of 347 nests of aquatic birds containing 1,681 eggs was selected for study at Kesterson Reservoir located in the Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Merced County, California. Embryos collected during incubation or from eggs that failed to hatch were examined to determine the age at death and presence of malformations. Embryonic death was generally high; approximately 17?60% of the nests of different species contained at least one dead embryo. The incidence of malformed embryos was also high; approximately 22?65% of the nests where at least two embryos were examined contained abnormal embryos. American coots (Fulica americana) and black-necked stilts (Himantopus mexicanus) experienced the highest incidence of malformed embryos. For all species, the average percentage of eggs containing dead or live abnormal embryos was 16.1 whereas the average percentage containing live abnormal embryos was 10.7. Multiple gross malformations of the eyes, brain, and feet were often present. Brain defects included hydrocephaly and exencephaly. Eye defects included both unilateral and bilateral anophthalmia and microphthalmia. Eye and foot defects with ectrodactyly and swollen joints were the most common in coots. Beak defects also occurred frequently and most often included incomplete development of the lower beak of ducks (Anas spp.) and stilts. Wing and leg defects were most prevalent in stilts and ducks, with ectromelia and amelia most prevalent in stilts. Other malformations occurring at lower frequencies included enlarged hearts with thin ventricular walls, liver hypopiasia, and gastroschisis. Based upon simultaneous examination of a control population of aquatic birds of the same species and published

  6. Trends and effects of organochlorine residues on Oregon and Nevada wading birds, 1979-83

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Henny, C.J.; Blus, L.J.; Hulse, C.S.

    1985-01-01

    The incidence of DDT (parent compound) declined significantly in the eggs of Black-crowned Night-Herons (Nycticorax nycticorax), White-faced Ibis (Plegadis chihi), and Black-necked Stilts (Himantopus mexicanus), and showed a downward trend in Snowy Egrets (Egretta thula). Mean DDE residues (breakdown product of DDT) in eggs declined significantly in Black-crowned Night-Herons and showed a downward trend in Black-necked Stilts and Snowy Egrets; however, no trend was apparent for White-faced Ibis. Some night-herons, egrets, and ibis laid thin-shelled eggs that cracked; eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with DDE residues in the egg contents. Ibis were the most sensitive species to DDE- induced shell thinning. Generally, reduced reproductive success for ibis started at lower DDE egg residues (3 ppm) than for either Snowy Egrets (5 ppm) or night-herons (8 ppm). Egg residue profiles, band recoveries, biotelemetry studies, and residues in fish and other prey items implicate the southwestern United States (a wintering area) as an important source of DDT-DDE that caused the most serious reproductive problem encountered during the study (in night-herons nesting at Ruby Lake, Nevada). Available evidence indicates that the three other species, together with night- herons from Oregon and Idaho, winter in Latin America.

  7. Persistent impacts of West Nile virus on North American bird populations

    PubMed Central

    George, T. Luke; Harrigan, Ryan J.; LaManna, Joseph A.; DeSante, David F.; Saracco, James F.; Smith, Thomas B.

    2015-01-01

    Since its introduction to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has had devastating impacts on native host populations, but to date these impacts have been difficult to measure. Using a continental-scale dataset comprised of a quarter-million birds captured over nearly two decades and a recently developed model of WNV risk, we estimated the impact of this emergent disease on the survival of avian populations. We find that populations were negatively affected by WNV in 23 of the 49 species studied (47%). We distinguished two groups of species: those for which WNV negatively impacted survival only during initial spread of the disease (n = 11), and those that show no signs of recovery since disease introduction (n = 12). Results provide a novel example of the taxonomic breadth and persistent impacts of this wildlife disease on a continental scale. Phylogenetic analyses further identify groups (New World sparrows, finches, and vireos) disproportionally affected by temporary or persistent WNV effects, suggesting an evolutionary dimension of disease risk. Identifying the factors affecting the persistence of a disease across host species is critical to mitigating its effects, particularly in a world marked by rapid anthropogenic change. PMID:26578774

  8. Persistent impacts of West Nile virus on North American bird populations.

    PubMed

    George, T Luke; Harrigan, Ryan J; LaManna, Joseph A; DeSante, David F; Saracco, James F; Smith, Thomas B

    2015-11-17

    Since its introduction to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has had devastating impacts on native host populations, but to date these impacts have been difficult to measure. Using a continental-scale dataset comprised of a quarter-million birds captured over nearly two decades and a recently developed model of WNV risk, we estimated the impact of this emergent disease on the survival of avian populations. We find that populations were negatively affected by WNV in 23 of the 49 species studied (47%). We distinguished two groups of species: those for which WNV negatively impacted survival only during initial spread of the disease (n = 11), and those that show no signs of recovery since disease introduction (n = 12). Results provide a novel example of the taxonomic breadth and persistent impacts of this wildlife disease on a continental scale. Phylogenetic analyses further identify groups (New World sparrows, finches, and vireos) disproportionally affected by temporary or persistent WNV effects, suggesting an evolutionary dimension of disease risk. Identifying the factors affecting the persistence of a disease across host species is critical to mitigating its effects, particularly in a world marked by rapid anthropogenic change. PMID:26578774

  9. Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

    PubMed

    Lutz, Wolfgang; K C, Samir

    2010-09-27

    The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA. PMID:20713384

  10. Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

    2011-09-01

    The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

  11. Trends in chronic marine oil pollution in Danish waters assessed using 22 years of beached bird surveys.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Jørn Lennart; Durinck, Jan; Skov, Henrik

    2007-09-01

    Beached bird surveys provide an important tool for monitoring the level of oil pollution at sea, which is the most significant observable cause of death for a large number of waterbird species and pose a serious threat to wintering seabird populations. Linear regression analyses of oil rates from the Danish 22 year dataset show a decline in the oil pollution level in offshore areas of the eastern North Sea and Skagerrak and in near-shore parts of the Kattegat; but a worsening in the offshore areas of the Kattegat. These results raise concern for species such as common scoter, velvet scoter, eider and razorbill, for which the Kattegat serves as a globally important wintering area. It is recommended that surveillance for oil spills is intensified in inner Danish waters, and that action is taken to make responses towards offenders faster, and penalties for oil seepage higher.

  12. Distribution and abundance of marine bird and pinniped populations within Port Foster, Deception Island, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kendall, Katrina A.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Wilson, Robert C.

    2003-06-01

    Seabirds and pinnipeds were surveyed during four cruises from March 1999 to November 2000 at Port Foster, Deception Island, Antarctica. Abundances and distributions of three species of pinnipeds, Arctocephalus gazella (Antarctic fur seals), Leptonychotes weddelli (Weddell seals), and Lobodon carcinophagus (crabeater seals), and 11 species of marine birds were documented within Port Foster. A. gazella was the dominant pinniped within Port Foster; its abundance has increased since the 1986/87 austral summer season. A. gazella were concentrated at the entrance to Port Foster. More pinnipeds were observed during the austral summer than during the spring. The most dominant seabird, Pygoscelis antarctica (chinstrap penguin), was concentrated along the rocky cliffs behind the beaches where A. gazella hauled out. Larus dominicanus (kelp gull) and Daption capense (cape petrel) were the most dominant flying seabirds. All other seabird species were more widely distributed around Port Foster than P. antarctica. There was no clear trend in abundances of seabirds over the study period. It is possible that the protected area of Port Foster provides refuge for vagrants of colonies along the outer periphery of the island and as a stopover point for migrating species.

  13. Patterns of morphology and ecology in grassland and shrubsteppe bird populations

    SciTech Connect

    Wiens, J.A.; Rotenberry, J.T.

    1980-09-01

    We analyze patterns of morphological variation in a guild of 12 species of grassland/shrubsteppe birds in relation to various theories expressing ecomorphological correlations. Variability in morphology over the six geographic locations sampled was moderate for most species, but several morphological traits exhibited significant variation between years at given locations. Sexual variation (dimorphism) was significant for most traits in most species; it was most apparent in polygynously mating forms, but occurred as well in several monogamous species. Dimorphism was generally greater for traits related in a general way to body size than for bill size traits, suggesting a stronger role for sexual selection than for intersexual trophic niche differentiation in driving dimorphism in these species. In nonsexual dimensions of variation, variability in bill features and body measurements tended to be similar. Migratory species did not differ from resident species in the degree of morphological variability. There was heterogeneity as well in the patterns of covariation among morphological traits. Principal component analysis indicated different clusterings or suites of morphological traits in component space for the different species, although in several the first principal component appeared to represent a general body size set. Overall, our analysis casts doubt on the applicability of muchcurrent ecomorphological theory to the bird guilds we studied. We believe that close associations between morphology and ecology are obscured by the substantial variability in both. This variability may reflect the fluctuating selection pressures characteristic of arid and semiarid environments, where environmental stresses (and the attendant tight restriction of population variation in morphology and ecology) are sporadic in their occurrence.

  14. Polybrominated diphenyl ether trends in eggs of marine and freshwater birds from British Columbia, Canada, 1979-2002.

    PubMed

    Elliott, John E; Wilson, Laurie K; Wakeford, Bryan

    2005-08-01

    Temporal, spatial, and interspecific trends in polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) flame retardants were determined in eggs of marine and freshwater bird species from the province of British Columbia, Canada. Temporal trends in the Fraser River estuary, 1983-2002, were examined by analysis of eggs of great blue herons (Ardea herodias) and from the Strait of Georgia marine ecosystem, 1979-2002, in eggs of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus). Results were compared to those from eggs of the osprey (Pandion haliaetus) taken along the lower Fraser River and along the Columbia River near Castlegar, British Columbia, and of a pelagic seabird, the Leach's storm-petrel (Oceanodroma leucorhoa), collected at a colony on the Queen Charlotte Islands. Mean concentration of sigmaPBDE, 455 microg/kg w.w., were highest in heron eggs collected in 2002 from the Fraser estuary. Concentrations in eggs of cormorants and ospreys taken from sites of varying urban influence tended to be about half that value. Leach's storm petrel eggs had only trace amounts of sigmaPBDE (3.38 microg/kg), despite having similar concentrations of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides to the other species. PBDEs increased exponentially with a doubling time of 5.7 years in eggs of both herons and cormorants. Over this period of increasing PBDEs, major chlorinated hydrocarbons, such as PCBs and DDE, were stable or decreased. The PBDE pattern was relatively consistent in most years and sites, with BDEs 47 > 100 > 99 > 153 > 154 > 28 > 183. This was interpreted as evidence of technical pentaBDE formulations as primary sources of the contamination, with the octaBDE formulations as secondary. Higher resolution analysis of a subsample of the eggs revealed the presence of up to nine other congeners, including BDE209 (range: 0.9-1.8 microg/kg), indicating exposure and uptake of decaBDE sourced congeners in North American foodchains. At some locations, concentrations of pentabrominated congeners and

  15. Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in eggs of wading birds from San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hothem, R.L.; Roster, D.L.; King, K.A.; Keldsen, T.J.; Marois, K.C.; Wainwright, S.E.

    1995-01-01

    Between 1989 and 1991, reproduction by black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) was studied at sites in San Francisco Bay. Eggs were collected from these and other bay sites and from South Wilbur Flood Area, a reference site in California's San Joaquin Valley. Eggs were analyzed for inorganic trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results were compared among sites and years and with results of previous studies. There was some evidence of impaired reproduction, but concentrations of contaminants were generally lower than threshold levels for such effects. Egg hatchability was generally good, with predation being the factor that most limited reproductive success. Mean PCB concentrations were generally higher in eggs from the south end of San Francisco Bay than from the north, but the only temporal change, an increase, was observed at Alcatraz Island. There were spatial differences for p,p'-DDE in night-heron eggs in 1990, but the highest mean concentration of DDE was in night-heron eggs from South Wilbur in 1991. Temporal declines in maximum concentrations of DDE in eggs were observed in the bay, but means did not change significantly over time, At Bair Island in the southern end of the bay, mean concentrations of mercury decreased while selenium increased in night-heron eggs over time, but there were no clear bay-wide spatial or temporal trends for either element.

  16. Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in eggs of wading birds from San Francisco Bay, California

    SciTech Connect

    Hothem, R.L.; Marois, K.C.; Wainwright, S.E.; Roster, D.L.; King, K.A.; Keldsen, T.J.

    1995-08-01

    Between 1989 and 1991, reproduction by black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) was studied at sites in San Francisco Bay. Eggs were collected from these and other bay sites and from South Wilbur Flood Area, a reference site in California`s San Joaquin Valley. Eggs were analyzed for inorganic trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results were compared among sites and years and with results of previous studies. There was some evidence of impaired reproduction, but concentrations of contaminants were generally lower than threshold levels for such effects. Egg hatchability was generally good, with predation being the factor that most limited reproductive success. Mean PCB concentrations were generally higher in eggs from the south end of San Francisco Bay than from the north, but the only temporal change, an increase, was observed at Alcatraz Island. There were spatial differences for p,p{prime}-DDE in night-heron eggs in 1990, but the highest mean concentration of DDE was in night-heron eggs from South Wilbur in 1991. Temporal declines in maximum concentrations of DDE in eggs were observed in the bay, but means did not change significantly over time. At Bair Island in the southern end of the bay, mean concentrations of mercury decreased while selenium increased in night-heron eggs over time, but there were no clear bay-wide spatial or temporal trends for either element.

  17. Changes in Patch Features May Exacerbate or Compensate for the Effect of Habitat Loss on Forest Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Magrach, Ainhoa; Larrinaga, Asier R.; Santamaría, Luis

    2011-01-01

    One and a half centuries after Darwin visited Chiloe Island, what he described as “…an island covered by one great forest…” has lost two-thirds of its forested areas. At this biodiversity hotspot, forest surface is becoming increasingly fragmented due to unregulated logging, clearing for pastures and replacement by exotic tree plantations. Decrease in patch size, increased isolation and “edge effects” can influence the persistence of forest species in remnant fragments. We assessed how these variables affect local density for six forest birds, chosen to include the most important seed dispersers (four species) and bird pollinators (two species, one of which acts also as seed disperser), plus the most common insectivore (Aphrastura spinicauda). Based on cue-count point surveys (8 points per fragment), we estimated bird densities for each species in 22 forest fragments of varying size, shape, isolation and internal-habitat structure (e.g. tree size and epiphyte cover). Bird densities varied with fragment connectivity (three species) and shape (three species), but none of the species was significantly affected by patch size. Satellite image analyses revealed that, from 1985 to 2008, forested area decreased by 8.8% and the remaining forest fragments became 16% smaller, 58–73% more isolated and 11–50% more regular. During that period, bird density estimates for the northern part of Chiloé (covering an area of 1214.75 km2) decreased for one species (elaenia), increased for another two (chucao and hummingbird) and did not vary for three (rayadito, thrust and blackbird). For the first three species, changes in patch features respectively exacerbated, balanced and overcame the effects of forest loss on bird population size (landscape-level abundance). Hence, changes in patch features can modulate the effect of habitat fragmentation on forest birds, suggesting that spatial planning (guided by spatially-explicit models) can be an effective tool to facilitate

  18. Mississippi's Farming & Nonfarming Population: A Comparison of Characteristics and Trends, 1950 to 1970.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryant, Ellen S.

    Trends and changes in Mississippi farms, farmers, and farm populations were investigated for the period between 1950 and 1970 and comparisons were made between the farm population and that of the urban and rural nonfarm segments in terms of growth trends and 1970 characteristics. Data were drawn from both the Censuses of Agriculture (taken at five…

  19. Chicago Children and Youth 1990-2010: Changing Population Trends and their Implications for Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goerge, Robert; Dilts, John; Yang, Duck-Hye; Wasserman, Miriam; Clary, Anne

    2007-01-01

    This report draws on demographic data to examine and project trends in the size and composition of the child population in all seventy-seven Chicago communities up to the year 2010. The report highlights the changing age mix of Chicago children and provides some context in which to consider these demographic trends. It describes population changes…

  20. Avian malaria in Hawaiian forest birds: Infection and population impacts across species and elevations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Atkinson, Carter T.; Hart, P. J.; LaPointe, Dennis

    2015-01-01

    Wildlife diseases can present significant threats to ecological systems and biological diversity, as well as domestic animal and human health. However, determining the dynamics of wildlife diseases and understanding the impact on host populations is a significant challenge. In Hawai‘i, there is ample circumstantial evidence that introduced avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) has played an important role in the decline and extinction of many native forest birds. However, few studies have attempted to estimate disease transmission and mortality, survival, and individual species impacts in this distinctive ecosystem. We combined multi-state capture-recapture (longitudinal) models with cumulative age-prevalence (cross-sectional) models to evaluate these patterns in Apapane, Hawai‘i Amakihi, and Iiwi in low-, mid-, and high-elevation forests on the island of Hawai‘i based on four longitudinal studies of 3–7 years in length. We found species-specific patterns of malaria prevalence, transmission, and mortality rates that varied among elevations, likely in response to ecological factors that drive mosquito abundance. Malaria infection was highest at low elevations, moderate at mid elevations, and limited in high-elevation forests. Infection rates were highest for Iiwi and Apapane, likely contributing to the absence of these species in low-elevation forests. Adult malaria fatality rates were highest for Iiwi, intermediate for Amakihi at mid and high elevations, and lower for Apapane; low-elevation Amakihi had the lowest malaria fatality, providing strong evidence of malaria tolerance in this low-elevation population. Our study indicates that hatch-year birds may have greater malaria infection and/or fatality rates than adults. Our study also found that mosquitoes prefer feeding on Amakihi rather than Apapane, but Apapane are likely a more important reservoir for malaria transmission to mosquitoes. Our approach, based on host abundance and infection rates, may be an

  1. Bird community composition

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Antrobus, T.J.; Guilfoyle, M.P.; Barrow, W.C.; Hamel, P.B.; Wakeley, J.S.

    2000-01-01

    Neotropical migrants are birds that breed in North America and winter primarily in Central and South America. Long-term population studies of birds in the Eastern United States indicated declines of some forest-dwelling birds, many of which winter in the Neotropics (Peterjohn and others 1995). These declines were attributed to loss of wintering and breeding habitat due to deforestation and fragmentation, respectively. Many species of Nearctic migrants--birds that breed in the northern regions of North America and winter in the Southern United States--are also experiencing population declines. Because large areas of undistrubed, older, bottomland hardwood forests oftern contain large numbers of habitat specialists, including forest-interior neotropical migrants and wintering Nearctic migrants, these forests may be critical in maintaining avian diversity. This study had two primary objectivs: (1) to create a baseline data set that can be used as a standard against which other bottomland hardwood forests can be compared, and (2) to establish long-term monitoring stations during both breeding and wintering seasons to discern population trends of avian species using bottomland hardwood forests.

  2. Relationships between nesting populations of wading birds and habitat features along the Atlantic Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erwin, R.M.; Spendelow, J.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Williams, B.K.; Whitman, William R.; Meredith, William H.

    1987-01-01

    Using previously published atlas data for 122 mixed-species wading bird colonies on islands along the Atlantic coast (Maine to Florida, 1976-77), we examined relationships between population sizes of 11 species of egrets, herons, ibises, and wood storks (Mycteria americana) and nine habitat variables. On nautical charts, we measured four island characteristics (area, length, width, shape), three isolation factors (distances to nearest island, mainland, and a water barrier),, and two variables related to potential feeding habitat within 5 km of the center of the colony (wetland area and land-water interface, i.e., the linear distance between the marsh/upland and all water bodies within the same 5-km radius). One univariable and five multivariable .procedures were used to determine which habitat features were best related to population size .(all species combined). Multicollinearity problems among the variables limited interpretation for most procedures. Both univariable and the multivariable procedures indicated that land-water interface was the most important of the nine variables, but for all models, less than 10% of the total variance was explained (rz is less than 0.10). The size of the colony was not related to the amount of wetland area (within 5-km).per se. Colony data showed better 'structure' when examined on the basis of geographic and disturbance gradients. Population sizes of colonies near man-altered habitats were compared with those surrounded by relatively natural habitats in three geographic zones: north, middle, and south. Significant differences were found in colony size among the three zones (south largest) and between disturbance types. Surprisingly, in all three zones, colonies near man-altered areas were larger on average than those near more natural habitats in this region. A possible reason for this difference is suggested.

  3. A reduced progenitor pool population accounts for the rudimentary appearance of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium in birds.

    PubMed

    Charvet, Christine J

    2010-01-01

    To date, most studies comparing birds and mammals have focused on the similarities in brain development, architecture and connectivity. However, major differences in size, anatomy and organization exist in the telencephalon of adult birds and mammals. For instance, the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium of birds appear rudimentary compared with those of mammals. To identify the developmental processes that give rise to this difference in size and anatomy of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium, the thickness of the ventricular zone that encompasses these regions was measured in embryonic birds (i.e. chickens, sparrows) and mammals (i.e. rabbits, hedgehogs, shrews, platypus). Cumulative bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) labeling in chickens at embryonic day 7 and 8 was also used to examine levels of cell proliferation in the ventricular zone of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium. The study's main finding is that the ventricular zone of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium is thinner in birds than in mammals. In chickens, the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium ventricular zone harbor few proliferating (i.e. BrdU+) cells. Collectively, these findings suggest that a reduced progenitor pool population account for the 'rudimentary' appearance of the avian septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium. PMID:21135539

  4. Geographic variation in onset of singing among populations of two migratory birds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordo, Oscar; Sanz, Juan José; Lobo, Jorge M.

    2008-07-01

    Even though singing plays a major role in bird communication, environmental variables affecting the geographic patterns observed in the variation of singing onset within large areas have not previously been studied. The singing phenology of two long-distance migrants, the Cuckoo Cuculus canorus and the Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos, recorded in thousands of sites throughout Spain, was related to a set of 51 explanatory variables by partial least squares regression. Observed variability in singing onset among localities follows spatial trends on an Iberian scale at 10 × 10 km resolution, and was well modelled by some environmental variables. Of these variables, climate was the most influential. Males of both species sang earlier in warmer and drier sites. Males who were near the Straits of Gibraltar and in the southern Iberian basins, which are geographic gradients closely related with climate in the Iberian Peninsula, were also heard earlier. Most environmental variables affected the singing activity of both species equally, i.e., the same environmental gradients are linked to singing onset. However, the models' predictions indicated differences in the geographical pattern in singing onset between both species, mainly related to their rates of progression during spring migration through Spain. Local variables, such as land uses, vegetation productivity or species abundance, played a minor role on singing onset spatial patterns. Therefore, models' composition supports the hypothesis that singing onset is a good proxy of arrival dates in migratory species, since those variables related to indirect effects on singing onset phenology through migratory progression and arrival to the breeding grounds showed the highest influence.

  5. Bergmann's rule and climate change revisited: disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Teplitsky, Céline; Mills, James A; Alho, Jussi S; Yarrall, John W; Merilä, Juha

    2008-09-01

    Ecological responses to on-going climate change are numerous, diverse, and taxonomically widespread. However, with one exception, the relative roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution as mechanisms in explaining these responses are largely unknown. Several recent studies have uncovered evidence for temporal declines in mean body sizes of birds and mammals, and these responses have been interpreted as evidence for microevolution in the context of Bergmann's rule-an ecogeographic rule predicting an inverse correlation between temperature and mean body size in endothermic animals. We used a dataset of individually marked red-billed gulls (Larus novaehollandiae scopulinus) from New Zealand to document phenotypic and genetic changes in mean body mass over a 47-year (1958-2004) period. We found that, whereas the mean body mass had decreased over time as ambient temperatures increased, analyses of breeding values estimated with an "animal model" approach showed no evidence for any genetic change. These results indicate that the frequently observed climate-change-related responses in mean body size of animal populations might be due to phenotypic plasticity, rather than to genetic microevolutionary responses.

  6. Bergmann's rule and climate change revisited: Disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Teplitsky, Céline; Mills, James A.; Alho, Jussi S.; Yarrall, John W.; Merilä, Juha

    2008-01-01

    Ecological responses to on-going climate change are numerous, diverse, and taxonomically widespread. However, with one exception, the relative roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution as mechanisms in explaining these responses are largely unknown. Several recent studies have uncovered evidence for temporal declines in mean body sizes of birds and mammals, and these responses have been interpreted as evidence for microevolution in the context of Bergmann's rule—an ecogeographic rule predicting an inverse correlation between temperature and mean body size in endothermic animals. We used a dataset of individually marked red-billed gulls (Larus novaehollandiae scopulinus) from New Zealand to document phenotypic and genetic changes in mean body mass over a 47-year (1958–2004) period. We found that, whereas the mean body mass had decreased over time as ambient temperatures increased, analyses of breeding values estimated with an “animal model” approach showed no evidence for any genetic change. These results indicate that the frequently observed climate-change-related responses in mean body size of animal populations might be due to phenotypic plasticity, rather than to genetic microevolutionary responses. PMID:18757740

  7. Bird Flu

    MedlinePlus

    Birds, just like people, get the flu. Bird flu viruses infect birds, including chickens, other poultry, and wild birds such as ducks. Most bird flu viruses can only infect other birds. However, bird flu ...

  8. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  9. Standardized North American marsh bird monitoring protocol

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conway, Courtney J.

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the population status of many marsh-dependent birds in North America but recent efforts have focused on collecting more reliable information and estimates of population trends. As part of that effort, a standardized survey protocol was developed in 1999 that provided guidance for conducting marsh bird surveys throughout North America such that data would be consistent among locations. The original survey protocol has been revised to provide greater clarification on many issues as the number of individuals using the protocol has grown. The Standardized North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Protocol instructs surveyors to conduct an initial 5-minute passive point-count survey followed by a series of 1-minute segments during which marsh bird calls are broadcast into the marsh following a standardized approach. Surveyors are instructed to record each individual bird from the suite of 26 focal species that are present in their local area on separate lines of a datasheet and estimate the distance to each bird. Also, surveyors are required to record whether each individual bird was detected within each 1-minute subsegment of the survey. These data allow analysts to use several different approaches for estimating detection probability. The Standardized North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Protocol provides detailed instructions that explain the field methods used to monitor marsh birds in North America.

  10. Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    1977-01-01

    Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

  11. USE OF CITIZEN BIRD POPULATION MONITORING DATA FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Birds are among the most conspicuous and easily monitored indicators of environmental health and change. Although volunteer avian monitoring ('citizen science') programs provide unique opportunities to gather data at fine and broad geographic scales simultaneously, and over long...

  12. Genetically diverse coronaviruses in captive bird populations in a Brazilian zoological park.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Tereza C; Teixeira, Maria Cecília B; Gomes, Deriane E; Jerez, Antônio José

    2011-02-01

    This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of coronaviruses (CoVs) in captive birds placed inside a zoological park in Brazil. The role of captive birds in the epidemiology of CoVs in the tropics is poorly understood. A total of 25 (n=25) different species were tested for viral RNA using individual fecal samples collected from healthy birds. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction targeting the 3' untranslated region was used to detect CoV RNA, and positive samples were submitted for sequence analysis. The phylogenetic search revealed nine mutations in the black shouldered peafowl (Pavus cristatus) CoV sequence, which clustered separately from samples previously described in England. This is the first report on the detection of the CoV genome in captive birds in Brazil.

  13. Genetically diverse coronaviruses in captive bird populations in a Brazilian zoological park.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Tereza C; Teixeira, Maria Cecília B; Gomes, Deriane E; Jerez, Antônio José

    2011-02-01

    This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of coronaviruses (CoVs) in captive birds placed inside a zoological park in Brazil. The role of captive birds in the epidemiology of CoVs in the tropics is poorly understood. A total of 25 (n=25) different species were tested for viral RNA using individual fecal samples collected from healthy birds. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction targeting the 3' untranslated region was used to detect CoV RNA, and positive samples were submitted for sequence analysis. The phylogenetic search revealed nine mutations in the black shouldered peafowl (Pavus cristatus) CoV sequence, which clustered separately from samples previously described in England. This is the first report on the detection of the CoV genome in captive birds in Brazil. PMID:21142971

  14. Population, consumption trends call for new environmental policies.

    PubMed

    1998-04-01

    This article highlights the need for new environmental policies. 38 industrialized countries gave commitments to protect the environment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But, a report on "Population Change, Resources, and the Environment" indicated that high levels of resource consumption in developed countries are a problem also, as are the complex environmental consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries. Global population is expected to include at least another 2 billion people by the mid-21st century. This growth will occur mostly in countries that lack the resources to invest in sound environmental policies and that may not adopt economic growth with little environmental impact. Additional population requires additional food, water, and shelter. The links between the environment and population include social structures, political systems, and lifestyles. Population is increasing the fastest in countries with the least efficient food production and distribution systems. Access to safe drinking water is constrained by poverty, poor infrastructure, and pollution of waterways and groundwater. A major share of economic growth will occur in cities. Population shifts to cities will create demand for health care and education, and encroach on surrounding farmland. Global marine fish stocks are being depleted. Logging and agriculture threaten forest resources. The report stresses that government policies that minimize the environmental impact of humans should promote recycling, eliminate subsidies that distort environmental costs of scarce resources, and implement better forest and fishery management. Politicians must think globally and act locally. PMID:12293547

  15. Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations.

    PubMed

    Vedder, Oscar; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Sheldon, Ben C

    2013-07-01

    Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.

  16. Population Trend of the World’s Monitored Seabirds, 1950-2010

    PubMed Central

    Karpouzi, Vasiliki; Pauly, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Seabird population changes are good indicators of long-term and large-scale change in marine ecosystems, and important because of their many impacts on marine ecosystems. We assessed the population trend of the world’s monitored seabirds (1950–2010) by compiling a global database of seabird population size records and applying multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) modeling to estimate the overall population trend of the portion of the population with sufficient data (i.e., at least five records). This monitored population represented approximately 19% of the global seabird population. We found the monitored portion of the global seabird population to have declined overall by 69.7% between 1950 and 2010. This declining trend may reflect the global seabird population trend, given the large and apparently representative sample. Furthermore, the largest declines were observed in families containing wide-ranging pelagic species, suggesting that pan-global populations may be more at risk than shorter-ranging coastal populations. PMID:26058068

  17. A Method for Investigating Population Declines of Migratory Birds Using Stable Isotopes: Origins of Harvested Lesser Scaup in North America

    PubMed Central

    Hobson, Keith A.; Wunder, Michael B.; Van Wilgenburg, Steven L.; Clark, Robert G.; Wassenaar, Leonard I.

    2009-01-01

    Background Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging. Methodology/Findings Here we used hydrogen isotopes (δD) to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999–2000 (n = 412) and 2000–2001 (n = 455). We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, δD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of δD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual δD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys. Conclusions/Significance Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60°N) versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds) synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography. PMID:19946360

  18. Effects of land use on bird populations and pest control services on coffee farms.

    PubMed

    Railsback, Steven F; Johnson, Matthew D

    2014-04-22

    Global increases in both agriculture and biodiversity awareness raise a key question: Should cropland and biodiversity habitat be separated, or integrated in mixed land uses? Ecosystem services by wildlife make this question more complex. For example, birds benefit agriculture by preying on pest insects, but other habitat is needed to maintain the birds. Resulting land use questions include what areas and arrangements of habitat support sufficient birds to control pests, whether this pest control offsets the reduced cropland, and the comparative benefits of "land sharing" (i.e., mixed cropland and habitat) vs. "land sparing" (i.e., separate areas of intensive agriculture and habitat). Such questions are difficult to answer using field studies alone, so we use a simulation model of Jamaican coffee farms, where songbirds suppress the coffee berry borer (CBB). Simulated birds select habitat and prey in five habitat types: intact forest, trees (including forest fragments), shade coffee, sun coffee, and unsuitable habitat. The trees habitat type appears to be especially important, providing efficient foraging and roosting sites near coffee plots. Small areas of trees (but not forest alone) could support a sufficient number of birds to suppress CBB in sun coffee; the degree to which trees are dispersed within coffee had little effect. In simulations without trees, shade coffee supported sufficient birds to offset its lower yield. High areas of both trees and shade coffee reduced pest control because CBB was less often profitable prey. Because of the pest control service provided by birds, land sharing was predicted to be more beneficial than land sparing in this system. PMID:24711377

  19. Effects of land use on bird populations and pest control services on coffee farms.

    PubMed

    Railsback, Steven F; Johnson, Matthew D

    2014-04-22

    Global increases in both agriculture and biodiversity awareness raise a key question: Should cropland and biodiversity habitat be separated, or integrated in mixed land uses? Ecosystem services by wildlife make this question more complex. For example, birds benefit agriculture by preying on pest insects, but other habitat is needed to maintain the birds. Resulting land use questions include what areas and arrangements of habitat support sufficient birds to control pests, whether this pest control offsets the reduced cropland, and the comparative benefits of "land sharing" (i.e., mixed cropland and habitat) vs. "land sparing" (i.e., separate areas of intensive agriculture and habitat). Such questions are difficult to answer using field studies alone, so we use a simulation model of Jamaican coffee farms, where songbirds suppress the coffee berry borer (CBB). Simulated birds select habitat and prey in five habitat types: intact forest, trees (including forest fragments), shade coffee, sun coffee, and unsuitable habitat. The trees habitat type appears to be especially important, providing efficient foraging and roosting sites near coffee plots. Small areas of trees (but not forest alone) could support a sufficient number of birds to suppress CBB in sun coffee; the degree to which trees are dispersed within coffee had little effect. In simulations without trees, shade coffee supported sufficient birds to offset its lower yield. High areas of both trees and shade coffee reduced pest control because CBB was less often profitable prey. Because of the pest control service provided by birds, land sharing was predicted to be more beneficial than land sparing in this system.

  20. Effects of land use on bird populations and pest control services on coffee farms

    PubMed Central

    Railsback, Steven F.; Johnson, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Global increases in both agriculture and biodiversity awareness raise a key question: Should cropland and biodiversity habitat be separated, or integrated in mixed land uses? Ecosystem services by wildlife make this question more complex. For example, birds benefit agriculture by preying on pest insects, but other habitat is needed to maintain the birds. Resulting land use questions include what areas and arrangements of habitat support sufficient birds to control pests, whether this pest control offsets the reduced cropland, and the comparative benefits of “land sharing” (i.e., mixed cropland and habitat) vs. “land sparing” (i.e., separate areas of intensive agriculture and habitat). Such questions are difficult to answer using field studies alone, so we use a simulation model of Jamaican coffee farms, where songbirds suppress the coffee berry borer (CBB). Simulated birds select habitat and prey in five habitat types: intact forest, trees (including forest fragments), shade coffee, sun coffee, and unsuitable habitat. The trees habitat type appears to be especially important, providing efficient foraging and roosting sites near coffee plots. Small areas of trees (but not forest alone) could support a sufficient number of birds to suppress CBB in sun coffee; the degree to which trees are dispersed within coffee had little effect. In simulations without trees, shade coffee supported sufficient birds to offset its lower yield. High areas of both trees and shade coffee reduced pest control because CBB was less often profitable prey. Because of the pest control service provided by birds, land sharing was predicted to be more beneficial than land sparing in this system. PMID:24711377

  1. Techniques and results of nongame bird monitoring in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.; Oelke, H.

    1980-01-01

    Long-term bird population trends based on accumulated ratios (proportional change) sometimes give a very misleading view of population change. Alternate methods of representing population change, based on the weighted means for the individual years, avoid the dangers of using ratios. Some advantages and disadvantages of various weighting techniques are discussed.

  2. Seasonality of Ankle Swelling: Population Symptom Reporting Using Google Trends.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fangwei; Allan, G Michael; Korownyk, Christina; Kolber, Michael; Flook, Nigel; Sternberg, Harvey; Garrison, Scott

    2016-07-01

    In our experience, complaints of ankle swelling are more common in summer, typically from patients with no obvious cardiovascular disease. Surprisingly, this observation has never been reported. To objectively establish this phenomenon, we sought evidence of seasonality in the public's Internet searches for ankle swelling. Our data, obtained from Google Trends, consisted of all related Google searches in the United States from January 4, 2004, to January 26, 2016. Consistent with our expectations and confirmed by similar data for Australia, Internet searches for information on ankle swelling are highly seasonal (highest in midsummer), with seasonality explaining 86% of search volume variability.

  3. Seasonality of Ankle Swelling: Population Symptom Reporting Using Google Trends.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fangwei; Allan, G Michael; Korownyk, Christina; Kolber, Michael; Flook, Nigel; Sternberg, Harvey; Garrison, Scott

    2016-07-01

    In our experience, complaints of ankle swelling are more common in summer, typically from patients with no obvious cardiovascular disease. Surprisingly, this observation has never been reported. To objectively establish this phenomenon, we sought evidence of seasonality in the public's Internet searches for ankle swelling. Our data, obtained from Google Trends, consisted of all related Google searches in the United States from January 4, 2004, to January 26, 2016. Consistent with our expectations and confirmed by similar data for Australia, Internet searches for information on ankle swelling are highly seasonal (highest in midsummer), with seasonality explaining 86% of search volume variability. PMID:27401424

  4. Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

    PubMed

    Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

    2016-04-27

    Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. PMID:27122550

  5. [A strategy for birth control based on population trends].

    PubMed

    Kong, S K; Jang, Y

    1982-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze behavioral changes in fertility in the Republic of Korea since the development of a national population policy and program in the 1960s. Recommendations for future birth control policies are suggested. In addition, changes in population structure are described, including the increase in the number of women in the reproductive ages, the increase in the number of women living in urban areas, and the high percentage of women who want many children and who do not wish to use contraception. (summary in ENG)

  6. Evidence for the impact of global warming on the long-term population dynamics of common birds.

    PubMed

    Julliard, Romain; Jiguet, Frédéric; Couvet, Denis

    2004-12-01

    Taking the opportunity in 2003 of the exceptionally warm spring in France as a natural simulation of possible future climate, we analysed common bird productivity using the French long-term capture-recapture national monitoring scheme. Two-thirds of the 32 species studied had an above-average productivity in 2003. However, this gain in productivity was not consistent among species, with a relatively low productivity for species exhibiting a long-term decline and relatively high productivity for stable or increasing species. Such links between long-term and short-term dynamics suggest that the impact of increasingly warm springs on productivity is a major component of the recent population dynamics of a variety of common bird species.

  7. [The growth and distribution of the population of Brazil: recent trends].

    PubMed

    Martine, G; Camargo, L

    1984-01-01

    Population trends underwent profound changes in Brazil during the last few decades. An important decrease in the rate of population growth was registered in the 1970s. This decrease is attributable to a decline in the level of fertility, which was observed in all regions and in both urban and rural areas. In order to explain this decline, it is necessary to analyze both structural and circumstantial factors related to the political, economic, and social context of the times. Main trends in population redistribution during the 1970s can be regrouped in terms of interregional exchanges and rural-urban migration. A growing convergence between these 2 types of patterns is observed in that population is increasingly being concentrated in densely populated areas of intense economic activities. The implications of these trends for public action are analyzed in the final section.

  8. Urban flight: understanding individual and population-level responses of Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds to urbanization.

    PubMed

    Rodewald, Amanda D; Shustack, Daniel P

    2008-01-01

    1. Despite the fact that studies of urban ecology have become commonplace in the literature, ecologists still lack empirical evidence of the underlying mechanisms responsible for relationships between urbanization and animal community structure. In an effort to understand the processes that govern an apparent avoidance of urban landscapes by many Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds, we examined population- and individual-level responses of the Acadian flycatcher (Empidonax virescens) to urbanization within the landscapes surrounding 35 riparian forest stands in Ohio, USA. 2. From May to August 2001-06 we surveyed birds, banded 175 territorial flycatchers to estimate both condition and survival, tracked nest initiation dates, monitored success of 387 nests and estimated annual reproductive productivity of 163 breeding pairs. 3. Neither apparent annual survival of males (phi = 0.53 +/- 0.056 SE) nor females (phi = 0.23 +/- 0.064 SE) was related to the amount of urban development within the landscape. Similarly, daily survival rates of nests, which ranged from 0.92 to 0.98 across sites, was not associated significantly with urbanization. In contrast, reproductive productivity was related negatively to the amount of urbanization surrounding riparian forests, perhaps due in part to the greater incidence of brood parasitism and fewer numbers of nesting attempts made by pairs in urban compared to rural forests. 4. Forests within urban landscapes experienced higher levels of turnover in site occupancy, and birds settling in urban areas initiated nests later, had marginally smaller body sizes and exhibited lower return rates following nest predation than birds in more rural landscapes. In this way, behavioural processes governing habitat selection, settlement patterns and site fidelity probably contributed to the lower levels of reproductive productivity achieved by pairs nesting in urban landscapes. 5. This study provides evidence that the negative association between

  9. Organohalogen exposure in a Eurasian Eagle owl (Bubo bubo) population from Southeastern Spain: temporal-spatial trends and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Ramírez, P; Martínez-López, E; García-Fernández, A J; Zweers, A J; van den Brink, N W

    2012-08-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine insecticides (OCs) were analysed in 58 Eurasian Eagle owl (Bubo bubo) unhatched eggs collected between 2004 and 2009 in Southeastern Spain. Levels of p,p'-DDE were found to be higher than in eggs laid by other European owls in the same decade, probably due to the greater agricultural activity in our study area. Compared to other European raptors, exposure to PCBs can be considered intermediate, but low to PBDEs. Land use differences and prey availability were the rationale to divide the study area in two subareas in further assessments. Temporal trends of HCB, p,p'-DDE, β-HCH, PCBs and PBDEs were significantly different in each subarea, generally increasing over time in the Southern but decreasing or remaining stable in the Northern. On the contrary, levels of cyclodienes tended to decrease in both subareas. Dietary shifts with a greater amount of birds are suggested as a cause for increasing organochlorine loads in raptors. This may explain the increasing trend in the Southern territories. However, due to the proximity of most of these nests to Cartagena, an important industrial city, increasing environmental pollution cannot be ruled out. Although average levels of the compounds analysed are below threshold levels, 17% of the samples exceeded 400 pg g(-1)ww (wet weight), the LOAEC for Total TEQs. Moreover, a negative correlation between TEQ concentrations and the metabolizable fraction of PCBs (F(prob)=0.0018) was found when TEQs values were above 10 pg g(-1)ww. This could be indicative of hepatic enzymes induction in the birds exposed at higher concentrations, which are mainly breeding in the Southern subarea. These females could be suffering from Ah-receptor-related toxic effects, some of which have been related to altered bird reproduction. Finally, a significant negative correlation between p,p'-DDE levels and eggshell thickness (r=-0.469, p<0.001) was observed, with

  10. MULTIDRUG RESISTANCE IN WILD BIRD POPULATIONS: IMPORTANCE OF THE FOOD CHAIN.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Andreia; Simões, Romeo; Oliveira, Manuela; Vaz-Pires, Paulo; Brandão, Ricardo; da Costa, Paulo Martins

    2015-12-01

    The presence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli has recently been reported in wild birds (gulls and birds of prey) that had no apparent exposure to antimicrobials. Little work has been done to assess the role of the food chain in the emergence and spread of MDR E. coli . In this study, we evaluated the presence of MDR E. coli in 29 fecal samples collected from wild birds living in a rehabilitation center (the center receives injured animals found in their natural habitat) and in eight feed samples. In total, 166 E. coli isolates were obtained: 129 from cloacal swabs and 37 from raw feed samples. The antimicrobial resistance profile of these isolates was determined, and we found that 75 isolates showed resistance to five or more drugs, resulting in a total of 38 different antimicrobial resistance patterns. Subsequently, the molecular characterization of 36 isolates, performed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, revealed a great similarity between isolates collected from various species of birds and also between these last ones and the ones found in their feed samples. PMID:26667528

  11. MULTIDRUG RESISTANCE IN WILD BIRD POPULATIONS: IMPORTANCE OF THE FOOD CHAIN.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Andreia; Simões, Romeo; Oliveira, Manuela; Vaz-Pires, Paulo; Brandão, Ricardo; da Costa, Paulo Martins

    2015-12-01

    The presence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli has recently been reported in wild birds (gulls and birds of prey) that had no apparent exposure to antimicrobials. Little work has been done to assess the role of the food chain in the emergence and spread of MDR E. coli . In this study, we evaluated the presence of MDR E. coli in 29 fecal samples collected from wild birds living in a rehabilitation center (the center receives injured animals found in their natural habitat) and in eight feed samples. In total, 166 E. coli isolates were obtained: 129 from cloacal swabs and 37 from raw feed samples. The antimicrobial resistance profile of these isolates was determined, and we found that 75 isolates showed resistance to five or more drugs, resulting in a total of 38 different antimicrobial resistance patterns. Subsequently, the molecular characterization of 36 isolates, performed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, revealed a great similarity between isolates collected from various species of birds and also between these last ones and the ones found in their feed samples.

  12. Monitoring trends in bat populations of the United States and territories: Problems and prospects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Bogan, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    Bats are ecologically and economically important mammals. The life histories of bats (particularly their low reproductive rates and the need for some species to gather in large aggregations at limited numbers of roosting sites) make their populations vulnerable to declines. Many of the species of bats in the United States (U.S.) and territories are categorized as endangered or threatened, have been candidates for such categories, or are considered species of concern. The importance and vulnerability of bat populations makes monitoring trends in their populations a goal for their future management. However, scientifically rigorous monitoring of bat populations requires well-planned, statistically defensible efforts. This volume reports findings of an expert workshop held to examine the topic of monitoring populations of bats. The workshop participants included leading experts in sampling and analysis of wildlife populations, as well as experts in the biology and conservation of bats. Findings are reported in this volume under two sections. Part I of the report presents contributed papers that provide overviews of past and current efforts at monitoring trends in populations of bats in the U.S. and territories. These papers consider current techniques and problems, and summarize what is known about the status and trends in populations of selected groups of bats. The contributed papers in Part I also include a description of the monitoring program developed for bat populations in the United Kingdom, a critique of monitoring programs in wildlife in general with recommendations for survey and sampling strategies, and a compilation and analysis of existing data on trends in bats of the U.S. and territories. Efforts directed at monitoring bat populations are piecemeal and have shortcomings. In Part II of the report, the workshop participants provide critical analyses of these problems and develop recommendations for improving methods, defining objectives and priorities

  13. Abundance, distribution, and population trends of the iconic Hawaiian Honeycreeper, the ʻIʻiwi (Vestiaria coccinea) throughout the Hawaiian Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paxton, Eben H.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.

    2013-01-01

    Naturalists in the 1800s described the ʻIʻiwi (Vestiaria coccinea) as one of the most abundant forest birds, detected in forested areas from sea level to tree line across all the major Hawaiian Islands. However, in the late 1800s, ʻIʻiwi began to disappear from low elevation forests, and by the mid-1900s, the species was largely absent from low- and mid-elevation areas. Today, ʻIʻiwi are restricted to high-elevation forests on the islands of Hawaiʻi, east Maui, and Kauaʻi, with a few birds apparently persisting on Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, and west Maui. ʻIʻiwi are highly vulnerable to introduced disease, and the prevalence of avian malaria in low and mid-elevations is believed to be the cause of ʻIʻiwi being restricted to high elevations where temperatures are too cold for the development of the disease and its mosquito vector. With global warming, it is feared that the disease will move quickly into the high-elevation forests where the last ʻIʻiwi reside, threatening their viability. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service was petitioned to list the ʻIʻiwi as an Endangered Species in 2010, and this report provides a comprehensive review of the abundance, distribution, and trends using historical survey data as well as the most recently available survey information (up to 2012). We estimate the total population size of ‘I‘iwi at 550,972–659,864 (mean = 605,418) individuals. Of these, 90 percent are on the island of Hawaiʻi, followed by east Maui (about 10 percent), with less than 1 percent on Kauaʻi. ʻIʻiwi population trends vary across the islands. ʻIʻiwi population in Kauaʻi has experienced sharp declines, with a projected trend of 92 percent decline over a 25 year period based on the 2000–2012 surveys. On East Maui, the northeastern region has experienced declines (34 percent over a 25 year period), while the southeastern region has been stable to moderately increasing. On the island of Hawaiʻi, population trends are mixed. On the windward

  14. Population trend of the Yellowstone grizzly bear as estimated from reproductive and survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eberhardt, L. L.; Blanchard, B. M.; Knight, R. R.

    1993-01-01

    The trend of the Yellowstone grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population was estimated using reproductive rates calculated from 22 individual females and survival rates from 400 female bear-years. The point estimate of the rate of increase was 4.6%, with 95% confidence limits of 0 and 9%. Caution in interpreting this result is advised because of possible biases in the population parameter estimates. The main prospects for improving present knowledge of the population trend appear to be further study of possible biases in the parameter estimates, and the continued use of radiotelemetry to increase the number of samples on which the estimates are based.

  15. Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola

    2007-08-01

    Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds' timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift (Apus apus), nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), and house martin (Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling (Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow (Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift's onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

  16. Trends in fertility and intermarriage among immigrant populations in Western Europe as measures of integration.

    PubMed

    Coleman, D A

    1994-01-01

    Demographic data on fertility and intermarriage are useful measures of integration and assimilation. This paper reviews trends in total fertility and intermarriage of foreign populations in Europe and compares them with the trends in fertility of the host population and the sending country. In almost all cases fertility has declined. The fertility of most European immigrant populations and of some West Indian and non-Muslim Asian populations has declined to a period level at or below that of the host society. Muslim populations from Turkey, North Africa and South Asia have shown the least decline. Intermarriage is proceeding faster than might be expected in immigrant populations which seemed in economic terms to be imperfectly integrated. Up to 40% of West Indians born in the UK, for example, appear to have white partners as do high proportions of young Maghrebians in France.

  17. Interpreting population estimates of birds following pesticide applications--behavior of male starlings exposed to an organophosphate pesticide

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grue, C.E.; Shipley, B.J.; Ralph, C. John; Scott, J. Michael

    1981-01-01

    We determined activity budgets for 10 pairs of captive male Starlings between 7 May and 18 July 1980. Our objective was to quantify changes in behavior after exposure to an organophosphate (OP) pesticide and to assess the impact of changes in behavior on the interpretation of population estimates of birds following pesticide applications. We observed each pair of males for an hour at 07:30 and 09:30 for four days and classified their behavior into one of four categories: flying, perching, foraging, or singing and displaying. At 06:30 on day 2, one male received a single oral dose of 2.5 mg dicrotophos (3-hydroxy-N, N-dimethyl-cis-crotonamide dimethyl phosphate) per kg of body weight; the other male received an equivalent exposure of corn oil. Changes in the activity budgets of OP-dosed and control males were compared using t-tests. Activity of OP-dosed males was significantly (P _ 0.05) reduced within the 2-4 h following exposure. OP-dosed males spent more time perching (46.1%) than controls and less time flying (-96.6%), foraging (-28.5%), and singing and displaying (-49.5%). The frequency of perching (-75.3%), flying (-83.8%), foraging (-54.1%), and singing and displaying (- 59.2%) was significantly reduced. Activity in OP-dosed males returned to normal by 26-28 h posttreatment. Results suggest that movement and vocalization may be significantly reduced in birds exposed to organophosphate and carbamate pesticides. Conventional censusing techniques and population estimating procedures may, therefore, be inadequate to assess changes in bird populations after pesticide applications because of the difficulty in separating decreases in density due to mortality or emigration from reductions in activity.

  18. Geographic patterns in relative abundances and population trends of breeding and wintering loggerhead shrikes in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Orsillo, S.; Peterjohn, B.G.; Yosef, Reuven; Lohrer, Fred E.

    1995-01-01

    In North America, the Breeding Bird Survey and the Christmas Bird Count provide data that are collected at sites visited each year, and the site-specific data can be placed in a Geographic Information System and smoothed to produce contour maps of relative abundance and trend for the United States and southern Canada. We develop these contour maps for Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) data from both surveys, and compare the patterns derived from each survey to evaluate the consistency of trends and relative abundances within physiographic strata. Patterns in relative abundance seem to be associated with strata, especially in the breeding season, but trends are often heterogeneous within strata. Because of limitations of the surveys and observed geographic patterns of shrike trends in the survey data, we suggest that there is no natural scale for the analysis of shrike-habitat associations.

  19. On the importance of controlling for effort in analysis of count survey data: Modeling population change from Christmas Bird Count data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Helbig, Andreas J.; Flade, Martin

    1999-01-01

    Count survey data are commonly used for estimating temporal and spatial patterns of population change. Since count surveys are not censuses, counts can be influenced by 'nuisance factors' related to the probability of detecting animals but unrelated to the actual population size. The effects of systematic changes in these factors can be confounded with patterns of population change. Thus, valid analysis of count survey data requires the identification of nuisance factors and flexible models for their effects. We illustrate using data from the Christmas Bird Count (CBC), a midwinter survey of bird populations in North America. CBC survey effort has substantially increased in recent years, suggesting that unadjusted counts may overstate population growth (or understate declines). We describe a flexible family of models for the effect of effort, that includes models in which increasing effort leads to diminishing returns in terms of the number of birds counted.

  20. Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guthrie Zimmerman,; Sauer, John; Fleming, Kathy; Link, William; Pamela R. Garrettson,

    2015-01-01

    We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of day effects, these data can be used to estimate population size. The BBS provides an index of wood duck abundance along roadside routes. Although factors influencing change in BBS counts over time can be controlled in BBS analysis, BBS indices alone cannot be used to derive population size estimates. We used AFBWS data to scale BBS indices for Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), basing the scaling factors on the ratio of estimated AFBWS population sizes to regional BBS indices for portions of BCRs that were common to both surveys. We summed scaled BBS results for portions of the Flyway not covered by the AFBWS with AFBWS population estimates to estimate a mean yearly total of 1,295,875 (mean 95% CI: 1,013,940–1,727,922) wood ducks. Scaling factors varied among BCRs from 16.7 to 148.0; the mean scaling factor was 68.9 (mean 95% CI: 53.5–90.9). Flyway-wide, population estimates from the combined analysis were consistent with alternative estimates derived from harvest data, and also provide population estimates within states and BCRs. We recommend their use in harvest and habitat management within the Atlantic Flyway.

  1. The role of selection and historical factors in driving population differentiation along an elevational gradient in an island bird.

    PubMed

    Bertrand, J A M; Delahaie, B; Bourgeois, Y X C; Duval, T; García-Jiménez, R; Cornuault, J; Pujol, B; Thébaud, C; Milá, B

    2016-04-01

    Adaptation to local environmental conditions and the range dynamics of populations can influence evolutionary divergence along environmental gradients. Thus, it is important to investigate patterns of both phenotypic and genetic variations among populations to reveal the respective roles of these two types of factors in driving population differentiation. Here, we test for evidence of phenotypic and genetic structure across populations of a passerine bird (Zosterops borbonicus) distributed along a steep elevational gradient on the island of Réunion. Using 11 microsatellite loci screened in 401 individuals from 18 localities distributed along the gradient, we found that genetic differentiation occurred at two spatial levels: (i) between two main population groups corresponding to highland and lowland areas, respectively, and (ii) within each of these two groups. In contrast, several morphological traits varied gradually along the gradient. Comparison of neutral genetic differentiation (FST ) and phenotypic differentiation (PST ) showed that PST largely exceeds FST at several morphological traits, which is consistent with a role for local adaptation in driving morphological divergence along the gradient. Overall, our results revealed an area of secondary contact midway up the gradient between two major, cryptic, population groups likely diverged in allopatry. Remarkably, local adaptation has shaped phenotypic differentiation irrespective of population history, resulting in different patterns of variation along the elevational gradient. Our findings underscore the importance of understanding both historical and selective factors when trying to explain variation along environmental gradients.

  2. Exonic versus intronic SNPs: contrasting roles in revealing the population genetic differentiation of a widespread bird species

    PubMed Central

    Zhan, X; Dixon, A; Batbayar, N; Bragin, E; Ayas, Z; Deutschova, L; Chavko, J; Domashevsky, S; Dorosencu, A; Bagyura, J; Gombobaatar, S; Grlica, I D; Levin, A; Milobog, Y; Ming, M; Prommer, M; Purev-Ochir, G; Ragyov, D; Tsurkanu, V; Vetrov, V; Zubkov, N; Bruford, M W

    2015-01-01

    Recent years have seen considerable progress in applying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to population genetics studies. However, relatively few have attempted to use them to study the genetic differentiation of wild bird populations and none have examined possible differences of exonic and intronic SNPs in these studies. Here, using 144 SNPs, we examined population genetic differentiation in the saker falcon (Falco cherrug) across Eurasia. The position of each SNP was verified using the recently sequenced saker genome with 108 SNPs positioned within the introns of 10 fragments and 36 SNPs in the exons of six genes, comprising MHC, MC1R and four others. In contrast to intronic SNPs, both Bayesian clustering and principal component analyses using exonic SNPs consistently revealed two genetic clusters, within which the least admixed individuals were found in Europe/central Asia and Qinghai (China), respectively. Pairwise D analysis for exonic SNPs showed that the two populations were significantly differentiated and between the two clusters the frequencies of five SNP markers were inferred to be influenced by selection. Central Eurasian populations clustered in as intermediate between the two main groups, consistent with their geographic position. But the westernmost populations of central Europe showed evidence of demographic isolation. Our work highlights the importance of functional exonic SNPs for studying population genetic pattern in a widespread avian species. PMID:25074575

  3. Exonic versus intronic SNPs: contrasting roles in revealing the population genetic differentiation of a widespread bird species.

    PubMed

    Zhan, X; Dixon, A; Batbayar, N; Bragin, E; Ayas, Z; Deutschova, L; Chavko, J; Domashevsky, S; Dorosencu, A; Bagyura, J; Gombobaatar, S; Grlica, I D; Levin, A; Milobog, Y; Ming, M; Prommer, M; Purev-Ochir, G; Ragyov, D; Tsurkanu, V; Vetrov, V; Zubkov, N; Bruford, M W

    2015-01-01

    Recent years have seen considerable progress in applying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to population genetics studies. However, relatively few have attempted to use them to study the genetic differentiation of wild bird populations and none have examined possible differences of exonic and intronic SNPs in these studies. Here, using 144 SNPs, we examined population genetic differentiation in the saker falcon (Falco cherrug) across Eurasia. The position of each SNP was verified using the recently sequenced saker genome with 108 SNPs positioned within the introns of 10 fragments and 36 SNPs in the exons of six genes, comprising MHC, MC1R and four others. In contrast to intronic SNPs, both Bayesian clustering and principal component analyses using exonic SNPs consistently revealed two genetic clusters, within which the least admixed individuals were found in Europe/central Asia and Qinghai (China), respectively. Pairwise D analysis for exonic SNPs showed that the two populations were significantly differentiated and between the two clusters the frequencies of five SNP markers were inferred to be influenced by selection. Central Eurasian populations clustered in as intermediate between the two main groups, consistent with their geographic position. But the westernmost populations of central Europe showed evidence of demographic isolation. Our work highlights the importance of functional exonic SNPs for studying population genetic pattern in a widespread avian species. PMID:25074575

  4. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  5. Temporal and latitudinal trends of p,p'-DDE in eggs and carcasses of North American birds from 1980 to 2005.

    PubMed

    Mora, Miguel A; Durgin, Bryce; Hudson, Lacy B; Jones, Edward

    2016-06-01

    The use of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDT) in agriculture in the United States and Canada was prohibited in the early 1970s; however, it continued to be used restrictively in Mexico until 2000. Forty years later, 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl) ethylene (p,p'-DDE), continues to be detected in eggs and bird carcasses in North America. The use of DDE has been associated with reproductive failure of several avian species, primarily through eggshell thinning. To assess the temporal and latitudinal distribution of p,p'-DDE in North America, the authors examined DDE concentrations reported in bird tissues in the scientific literature published between 1980 and 2009. Overall, the majority of supported models suggested that DDE concentrations in birds were greater in the upper mid-latitudes (38°-48°) than in other parts of North America. However, spatial trends of DDE seemed to be influenced by regions with large amounts of data, such as the Great Lakes area. Concentrations of p,p'-DDE in eggs averaged 2.5 μg/g, 3.2 μg/g, and 29.5 μg/g wet weight in 1980 and decreased to 1.64 μg/g, 0.87 μg/g, and 1.01 μg/g wet weight by the mid-2000s for the central, eastern, and western North America regions, respectively. The results indicate that, over time, all DDE residues observed in birds have decreased significantly in North America. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1340-1348. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:26753749

  6. A Study of the Effects of Gas Well Compressor Noise on Breeding Bird Populations of the Rattlesnake Canyon Habitat Management Area, San Juan County, New Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    LaGory, K.E.; Chang, Young-Soo; Chun, K.C.; Reeves, T.; Liebich, R.; Smith, K.

    2001-06-04

    This report, conducted from May through July 2000, addressed the potential effect of compressor noise on breeding birds in gas-production areas administered by the FFO, specifically in the Rattlesnake Canyon Habitat Management Area northeast of Farmington, New Mexico. The study was designed to quantify and characterize noise output from these compressors and to determine if compressor noise affected bird populations in adjacent habitat during the breeding season.

  7. Developing indicators for European birds.

    PubMed

    Gregory, Richard D; van Strien, Arco; Vorisek, Petr; Gmelig Meyling, Adriaan W; Noble, David G; Foppen, Ruud P B; Gibbons, David W

    2005-02-28

    The global pledge to deliver 'a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010' is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat.

  8. Persistence of an extreme male-biased adult sex ratio in a natural population of polyandrous bird.

    PubMed

    Kosztolányi, A; Barta, Z; Küpper, C; Székely, T

    2011-08-01

    In a number of insects, fishes and birds, the conventional sex roles are reversed: males are the main care provider, whereas females focus on matings. The reversal of typical sex roles is an evolutionary puzzle, because it challenges the foundations of sex roles, sexual selection and parental investment theory. Recent theoretical models predict that biased parental care may be a response to biased adult sex ratios (ASRs). However, estimating ASR is challenging in natural populations, because males and females often have different detectabilities. Here, we use demographic modelling with field data from 2101 individuals, including 579 molecularly sexed offspring, to provide evidence that ASR is strongly male biased in a polyandrous bird with male-biased care. The model predicts 6.1 times more adult males than females (ASR=0.860, proportion of males) in the Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus. The extreme male bias is consistent between years and concordant with experimental results showing strongly biased mating opportunity towards females. Based on these results, we conjecture that parental sex-role reversal may occur in populations that exhibit extreme male-biased ASR.

  9. Population trends, reproductive success, and organochlorine chemical contaminants in waterbirds nesting in Galveston Bay, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, K.A.; Krynitsky, A.J.

    1986-01-01

    The effects of environmental contaminants on the reproductive success of olivaceous cormorants (Phalacrocorax olivaceus ), Laughing gulls (Larus atricilla ), and black skimmers (Rhynchops niger ) nesting in Galveston Bay, Texas were investigated from 1980 through 1982. Populations of cormorants and gulls have remained stable in recent years, but skimmer numbers may have declined. Cormorants produced 1.9 to 2.8 young per pair in nests that remained active throughout the season. Gull and skimmer reproduction was seriously limited by storms and predation. DDE and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) residues in carcasses and eggs generally were below levels associated with chronic poisoning and reproductive problems in most species of birds.

  10. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

    PubMed Central

    Thessen, Anne E.; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species. PMID:25548736

  11. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

    PubMed

    Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  12. Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2015-01-01

    Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  13. Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adkins, Jessica Y.; Roby, Daniel D.; Lyons, Donald E.; Courtot, Karen N.; Collis, Ken; Carter, Harry R.; Shuford, W. David; Capitolo, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    The status of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchusspp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding

  14. Toxic materials, fishing, and environmental variation: simulated effects on striped bass population trends

    SciTech Connect

    Goodyear, C.P.

    1985-01-01

    Decreased survival of larval striped bass Morone saxatilis resulting from toxic chemicals in the environment and decreased survival of adults caused by fishing both are suspected as agents contributing to the decline in the Chesapeake Bay stock since the mid-1970s. The relative power of each type of mortality to cause population declines was evaluated with simulation techniques. Equivalent levels of added mortality induced qualitatively identical and quantitatively similar trends in population simulations for all conditions examined except if strong density-dependent mortality preceded the contaminant toxicity. In this case the contaminant effect caused a greater reduction in yield, but the population did not tend toward extinction. The results indicate that the observed downward trend in the Chesapeake Bay population can be halted or reversed by a reduction in fishing mortality, even if contaminant toxicity is the proximate cause for the decline. 28 references, 1 figure, 1 table.

  15. Factors Affecting Population Trends of Plant-Parasitic Nematodes on Rangeland Grasses

    PubMed Central

    Griffin, G. D.; Asay, K. H.; Horton, W. H.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of environmental conditions on population trends of plant-parasitic nematodes were studied in experimental plots of five wheatgrasses in the western Utah desert. In a 3-year (1984-86) field study, soil water and temperature affected the population trends of the ectoparasites, Tylenchorhynchus acutoides and Xiphinema americanum, and the migratory endoparasite, Pratylenchus neglectus, on Fairway crested wheatgrass, Agropyron cristatum; 'Hycrest' crested wheatgrass, A. cristatum X A. desertorura; 'Rosana' western wheatgrass, Pascopyrum smithii; 'Oahe' intermediate wheatgrass, Thinopyrum intermedium; and RS-1 hybrid (Elytrigia repens X Pseudoroegneria spicata). The largest soil populations of these nematode species were collected in 1984 under good plant-growth conditions. A reduction in nematode populations occurred in 1985 and 1986, possibly because of low soil-water conditions. There was a positive relationship between high soil water and maximum population densities of T. acutoides in the spring and fall of 1984, and between low soil water and minimum population densities of the nematode in 1985 and 1986. Pratylenchus neglectus populations were affected by soil water, although to a lesser degree than the ectoparasitic nematodes. Population densities of the three nematode species were significantly lower in the drier years of 1985 and 1986 than in 1984. Nematode populations were greater at the lower soil depths in the fall than in the spring or summer. PMID:19277352

  16. [Spatial distribution characteristics of urban potential population in Shenyang City based on QuickBird image and GIS].

    PubMed

    Li, Jun-Ying; Hu, Yuan-Man; Chen, Wei; Liu, Miao; Hu, Jian-Bo; Zhong, Qiao-Lin; Lu, Ning

    2012-06-01

    Population is the most active factor affecting city development. To understand the distribution characteristics of urban population is of significance for making city policy decisions and for optimizing the layout of various urban infrastructures. In this paper, the information of the residential buildings in Shenyang urban area was extracted from the QuickBird remote sensing images, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the population within the Third-Ring Road of the City were analyzed, according to the social and economic statistics data. In 2010, the population density in different types of residential buildings within the Third-Ring Road of the City decreased in the order of high-storey block, mixed block, mixed garden, old multi-storey building, high-storey garden, multi-storey block, multi-storey garden, villa block, shanty, and villa garden. The vacancy rate of the buildings within the Third-Ring Road was more than 30%, meaning that the real estate market was seriously overstocked. Among the five Districts of Shenyang City, Shenhe District had the highest potential population density, while Tiexi District and Dadong District had a lower one. The gravity center of the City and its five Districts was also analyzed, which could provide basic information for locating commercial facilities and planning city infrastructure.

  17. Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola

    2007-08-01

    Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift ( Apus apus), nightingale ( Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica), and house martin ( Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling ( Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow ( Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

  18. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  19. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  20. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  1. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  2. Alaska Native Population Trends and Vital Statistics, 1950-1985. ISEGR Research Note.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, George W.

    Utilizing U.S. census data and vital statistics (births and deaths adjusted to residence as provided by the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services), this statistical report presents a comparative analysis of Alaska Native population trends. Specifically, the following are presented via tabular and narrative analysis: (1) general…

  3. [The effects of population policy on fertility trends in the smaller European Warsaw Pact countries].

    PubMed

    Vortmann, H

    1992-01-01

    The impact of population policies on fertility trends in Eastern European countries between 1960 and the mid-1980s is analyzed. Countries covered include East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania. The data are from a study carried out by the German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin.

  4. Signature of a pre-human population decline in the critically endangered Reunion Island endemic forest bird Coracina newtoni.

    PubMed

    Salmona, Jordi; Salamolard, Marc; Fouillot, Damien; Ghestemme, Thomas; Larose, Jerry; Centon, Jean-François; Sousa, Vitor; Dawson, Deborah A; Thebaud, Christophe; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km(2) area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations.

  5. Signature of a Pre-Human Population Decline in the Critically Endangered Reunion Island Endemic Forest Bird Coracina newtoni

    PubMed Central

    Salmona, Jordi; Salamolard, Marc; Fouillot, Damien; Ghestemme, Thomas; Larose, Jerry; Centon, Jean-François; Sousa, Vitor; Dawson, Deborah A.; Thebaud, Christophe; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km2 area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations. PMID:22916272

  6. Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

  7. Age trends in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in Roma minority population of Croatia.

    PubMed

    Zeljko, Hrvojka Marija; Skarić-Jurić, Tatjana; Narančić, Nina Smolej; Barešić, Ana; Tomas, Zeljka; Petranović, Matea Zajc; Miličić, Jasna; Salihović, Marijana Peričić; Janićijević, Branka

    2013-07-01

    The Roma (Gypsy) are the largest European minority population characterized by poverty, social exclusion as well as by numerous life-style and cultural specificities, which all could have an adverse impact on their cardiovascular health. This study assesses the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors in community-based sample of 430 adult Roma, living in rural area of Croatia, by providing the actual and age-adjusted estimates using the European standard population. The most prominent classical CVD risk phenotypes (blood pressure, obesity, smoking, glucose and lipid profile) were selected, and the standard risk cut-offs were applied. The study has shown that compared to general population of Croatia, the Roma population bears a high CVD risk factors load related to smoking and high glucose level. The CVD risk factors prevalence in Roma also showed important sex and age patterns, the most imposing of which are the findings of higher prevalence of CVD risks in women (especially obesity and triglyceride levels) and the trend of higher body mass index (BMI) level in younger age group (18-34 years) which both stand in contrast to the trends characterizing the general population of Croatia. These findings are complemented by the trend of decreased risk in the oldest age group (65+ years) for all investigated CVD risk factors (with exception of triglycerides level) compared to the 50-64 age group. We conclude that the age and sex CVD risks pattern point to the health transition of this rural Roma population. As we expect the proportion of CVD in the Roma minority of Croatia to increase in the future along with further modernization of their lifestyle, the CVD prevention measures in this population are urgent and should be primarily targeted at women and at the younger segment of this population.

  8. Bird population declines due to radiation exposure at Chernobyl are stronger in species with pheomelanin-based coloration.

    PubMed

    Galván, Ismael; Mousseau, Timothy A; Møller, Anders P

    2011-04-01

    Eumelanin and pheomelanin are the most common pigments providing color to the integument of vertebrates. While pheomelanogenesis requires high levels of a key intracellular antioxidant (glutathione, GSH), eumelanogenesis is inhibited by GSH. This implies that species that possess the molecular basis to produce large amounts of pheomelanin might be more limited in coping with environmental conditions that generate oxidative stress than species that produce eumelanin. Exposure to ionizing radiation produces free radicals and depletes antioxidant resources. GSH is particularly susceptible to radiation, so that species with large proportions of pheomelanic integument may be limited by the availability of GSH to combat oxidative stress and may thus suffer more from radiation effects. We tested this hypothesis in 97 species of birds censused in areas with varying levels of radioactive contamination around Chernobyl. After controlling for the effects of carotenoid-based color, body mass and similarity among taxa due to common phylogenetic descent, the proportion of pheomelanic plumage was strongly negatively related to the slope estimates of the relationship between abundance and radiation levels, while no effect of eumelanic color proportion was found. This represents the first report of an effect of the expression of melanin-based coloration on the capacity to resist the effects of ionizing radiation. Population declines were also stronger in species that exhibit carotenoid-based coloration and have large body mass. The magnitude of population declines had a relatively high phylogenetic signal, indicating that certain groups of birds, especially non-corvid passeriforms, are particularly susceptible to suffer from the effects of radioactive contamination due to phylogenetic inertia. PMID:21136083

  9. Bird population declines due to radiation exposure at Chernobyl are stronger in species with pheomelanin-based coloration.

    PubMed

    Galván, Ismael; Mousseau, Timothy A; Møller, Anders P

    2011-04-01

    Eumelanin and pheomelanin are the most common pigments providing color to the integument of vertebrates. While pheomelanogenesis requires high levels of a key intracellular antioxidant (glutathione, GSH), eumelanogenesis is inhibited by GSH. This implies that species that possess the molecular basis to produce large amounts of pheomelanin might be more limited in coping with environmental conditions that generate oxidative stress than species that produce eumelanin. Exposure to ionizing radiation produces free radicals and depletes antioxidant resources. GSH is particularly susceptible to radiation, so that species with large proportions of pheomelanic integument may be limited by the availability of GSH to combat oxidative stress and may thus suffer more from radiation effects. We tested this hypothesis in 97 species of birds censused in areas with varying levels of radioactive contamination around Chernobyl. After controlling for the effects of carotenoid-based color, body mass and similarity among taxa due to common phylogenetic descent, the proportion of pheomelanic plumage was strongly negatively related to the slope estimates of the relationship between abundance and radiation levels, while no effect of eumelanic color proportion was found. This represents the first report of an effect of the expression of melanin-based coloration on the capacity to resist the effects of ionizing radiation. Population declines were also stronger in species that exhibit carotenoid-based coloration and have large body mass. The magnitude of population declines had a relatively high phylogenetic signal, indicating that certain groups of birds, especially non-corvid passeriforms, are particularly susceptible to suffer from the effects of radioactive contamination due to phylogenetic inertia.

  10. The Bird.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannon, Jean

    2001-01-01

    Students use a dead bird to learn about bird life, anatomy, and death. Students examine a bird body and discuss what happened to the bird. Uses outdoor education as a resource for learning about animals. (SAH)

  11. Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

    PubMed

    WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

    2011-10-01

    Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

  12. Mast and weather influences on population trends of a species of concern: The allegheny woodrat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manjerovic, M.B.; Wood, P.B.; Edwards, J.W.

    2009-01-01

    Over the past 20-30 y. northern and western populations of the Allegheny woodrat (Neotoma magister) have experienced large declines. whereas populations in the core of the range are assumed to be stable. We examined population trends at two study areas in northcentral West Virginia along the western ridge of the central Appalachian Mountains. Temperature and precipitation parameters along with mast production were examined to determine if these environmental variables impacted the population. Based on a 5 y dataset. our results indicate a yearly decrease in the overall population. with adult females most affected. Hard and soft mast availability related to adult female capture rates. whereas temperatures significantly affected juvenile. adult female and overall capture rates. Juvenile summer capture rates increased with warmer temperatures the preceding winter. Female summer capture rates decreased with warmer temperatures the preceding spring suggesting that effects of warming should be added as a potential threat to the Allegheny woodrat.

  13. The European and Japanese outbreaks of H5N8 derive from a single source population providing evidence for the dispersal along the long distance bird migratory flyways

    PubMed Central

    Iqbal, Munir

    2015-01-01

    The origin of recent parallel outbreaks of the high pathogenicity H5N8 avian flu virus in Europe and in Japan can be traced to a single source population, which has most likely been spread by migratory birds. By using Bayesian coalescent methods to analyze the DNA sequences of the virus to find the times for divergence and combining this sequence data with bird migration data we can show the most likely locations and migratory pathways involved in the origin of the current outbreak. This population was most likely located in the Siberian summer breeding grounds of long-range migratory birds. These breeding grounds provide a connection between different migratory flyways and explain the current outbreaks in remote locations. By combining genetic methods and epidemiological data we can rapidly identify the sources and the dispersion pathways for novel avian influenza outbreaks. PMID:25945320

  14. Population Change, Resources, and the Environment. Population Trends and Public Policy No. 4.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith, Ed.

    Intended for policymakers, this document focuses on environmental factors limiting the expansion of the world's food supply, the dilemma of fostering third world economic development, and prospects for energy development. The first of five parts gives an overview of a 1983 Population Reference Bureau conference which focused on current thinking…

  15. Repeated inseminations required for natural fertility in a wild bird population.

    PubMed Central

    Török, János; Michl, Gábor; Garamszegi, László Zs; Barna, Judit

    2003-01-01

    In most bird species, pairs copulate many times before egg laying. The exact function of repeated inseminations (i.e. successful copulations) is unknown, but several suggestions have been made. We tested the hypothesis that repeated inseminations are required to ensure fertilization of eggs, by using an experimental method where free-ranging male collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) were prevented from inseminating their mates. We show that egg fertility was lower when females had not copulated during the studied part of their fertile period. By counting sperm on the inner perivitelline layer of eggs, we estimated that a minimum of 86 sperm must reach the site of fertilization to ensure average fertility. Using the timing of inseminations and the numbers of sperm on successive eggs, we show that repeated copulations are necessary to achieve an average rate of fertilization of a single clutch. Our results thus provide evidence that repeated inseminations function to ensure fertilization success. We discuss possible constraints on sperm production and utilization that may have contributed to this pattern. PMID:12769465

  16. Distribution, diversity and drivers of blood-borne parasite co-infections in Alaskan bird populations.

    PubMed

    Oakgrove, Khouanchy S; Harrigan, Ryan J; Loiseau, Claire; Guers, Sue; Seppi, Bruce; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2014-09-01

    Avian species are commonly infected by multiple parasites, however few studies have investigated the environmental determinants of the prevalence of co-infection over a large scale. Here we believe that we report the first, detailed ecological study of the prevalence, diversity and co-infections of four avian blood-borne parasite genera: Plasmodium spp., Haemoproteus spp., Leucocytozoon spp. and Trypanosoma spp. We collected blood samples from 47 resident and migratory bird species across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska. From the patterns observed at collection sites, random forest models were used to provide evidence of associations between bioclimatic conditions and the prevalence of parasite co-infection distribution. Molecular screening revealed a higher prevalence of haematozoa (53%) in Alaska than previously reported. Leucocytozoons had the highest diversity, prevalence and prevalence of co-infection. Leucocytozoon prevalence (35%) positively correlated with Trypanosoma prevalence (11%), negatively correlated with Haemoproteus prevalence (14%) and had no correlation with Plasmodium prevalence (7%). We found temperature, precipitation and tree cover to be the primary environmental drivers that show a relationship with the prevalence of co-infection. The results provide insight into the impacts of bioclimatic drivers on parasite ecology and intra-host interactions, and have implications for the study of infectious diseases in rapidly changing environments.

  17. Influence of habitat amount, arrangement, and use on population trend estimates of male Kirtland's warblers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Donner, D.M.; Probst, J.R.; Ribic, C.A.

    2008-01-01

    Kirtland's warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) persist in a naturally patchy environment of young, regenerating jack pine forests (i.e., 5-23 years old) created after wildfires and human logging activities. We examined how changing landscape structure from 26 years of forest management and wildfire disturbances influenced population size and spatial dispersion of male Kirtland's warblers within their restricted breeding range in northern Lower Michigan, USA. The male Kirtland's warbler population was six times larger in 2004 (1,322) compared to 1979 (205); the change was nonlinear with 1987 and 1994 identified as significant points of change. In 1987, the population trend began increasing after a slowly declining trend prior to 1987, and the rate of increase appeared to slow after 1994. Total amount of suitable habitat and the relative area of wildfire-regenerated habitat were the most important factors explaining population trend. Suitable habitat increased 149% primarily due to increasing plantations from forest management. The relative amount and location of wildfire-regenerated habitat modified the distribution of males among various habitat types, and the spatial variation in their abundance across the primary breeding range. These findings indicate that the Kirtland's warbler male population shifted its use of habitat types temporally and spatially as the population increased and as the relative availability of habitats changed through time. We demonstrate that researchers and managers need to consider not only habitat quality, but the temporal and the spatial context of habitat availability and population levels when making habitat restoration decisions. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. The relative roles of cultural drift and acoustic adaptation in shaping syllable repertoires of island bird populations change with time since colonization.

    PubMed

    Potvin, Dominique A; Clegg, Sonya M

    2015-02-01

    In birds, song divergence often precedes and facilitates divergence of other traits. We assessed the relative roles of cultural drift, innovation, and acoustic adaptation in divergence of island bird dialects, using silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis). In recently colonized populations, syllable diversity was not significantly lower than source populations, shared syllables between populations decreased with increasing number of founder events, and dialect variation displayed contributions from both habitat features and drift. The breadth of multivariate space occupied by recently colonized Z. l. lateralis populations was comparable to evolutionarily old forms that have diverged over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. In evolutionarily old subspecies, syllable diversity was comparable to the mainland and the amount of variation in syllable composition explained by habitat features increased by two- to threefold compared to recently colonized populations. Together these results suggest that cultural drift influences syllable repertoires in recently colonized populations, but innovation likely counters syllable loss from colonization. In evolutionarily older populations, the influence of acoustic adaptation increases, possibly favoring a high diversity of syllables. These results suggest that the relative importance of cultural drift and acoustic adaptation changes with time since colonization in island bird populations, highlighting the value of considering multiple mechanisms and timescale of divergence when investigating island song divergence. PMID:25496402

  19. The relative roles of cultural drift and acoustic adaptation in shaping syllable repertoires of island bird populations change with time since colonization.

    PubMed

    Potvin, Dominique A; Clegg, Sonya M

    2015-02-01

    In birds, song divergence often precedes and facilitates divergence of other traits. We assessed the relative roles of cultural drift, innovation, and acoustic adaptation in divergence of island bird dialects, using silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis). In recently colonized populations, syllable diversity was not significantly lower than source populations, shared syllables between populations decreased with increasing number of founder events, and dialect variation displayed contributions from both habitat features and drift. The breadth of multivariate space occupied by recently colonized Z. l. lateralis populations was comparable to evolutionarily old forms that have diverged over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. In evolutionarily old subspecies, syllable diversity was comparable to the mainland and the amount of variation in syllable composition explained by habitat features increased by two- to threefold compared to recently colonized populations. Together these results suggest that cultural drift influences syllable repertoires in recently colonized populations, but innovation likely counters syllable loss from colonization. In evolutionarily older populations, the influence of acoustic adaptation increases, possibly favoring a high diversity of syllables. These results suggest that the relative importance of cultural drift and acoustic adaptation changes with time since colonization in island bird populations, highlighting the value of considering multiple mechanisms and timescale of divergence when investigating island song divergence.

  20. Causes, trends, and policy of population migration and the floating population.

    PubMed

    Cai, F

    1996-01-01

    This study provides a discussion of migration theory, a description of the main characteristics of migrants and floating population in China, and a migration impact assessment and potential social policy directions. It is argued that the impetus for migration in China was the population distribution pattern and an uneven industrial structure that favored heavy industry. Another factor affecting migration is the gap in income between urban and rural areas, which has widened since reforms in the mid-1980s. The author finds the Todaro or the Harris-Todaro theories inappropriate for understanding migration in developing countries and flawed. Evidence about migrants' characteristics suggest that migration in China was part of a process governed by the laws of economic growth and market development. Legal migrants are defined as those who legally migrated according to the household registration system. China's development strategy during the 1950s relied on growth of capital-intensive heavy industry. The cost was underwritten by adoption of a price system that shifted the price of products in order to lower the cost of heavy industrial development. During 1952-78, agricultural output dropped sharply, but the employment structure changed very little and the rate of urbanization changed slightly. Regional inequality was obvious by 1978. As reform progressed, patterns emerged that favored eastern coastal development. Microlevel reform outdistanced macrolevel reform. Obstacles to migration were reduced: the breakup of the commune system and changes in the urban food supply system and housing. In 1990 there were 34.128 million migrants, of which 32.42% were interprovincial and 42.99% involved job-related shifts. In 1992, 8.1% of urban population were not registered; 94.909 million were floating population. Cities have established policies to match the size of the floating population to the current carrying capacity. PMID:12291970

  1. Environmental and genetic determinants of innovativeness in a natural population of birds.

    PubMed

    Quinn, John L; Cole, Ella F; Reed, Thomas E; Morand-Ferron, Julie

    2016-03-19

    Much of the evidence for the idea that individuals differ in their propensity to innovate and solve new problems has come from studies on captive primates. Increasingly, behavioural ecologists are studying innovativeness in wild populations, and uncovering links with functional behaviour and fitness-related traits. The relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving this variation, however, remains unknown. Here, we present the results of the first large-scale study to examine a range of causal factors underlying innovative problem-solving performance (PSP) among 831 great tits (Parus major) temporarily taken into captivity. Analyses show that PSP in this population: (i) was linked to a variety of individual factors, including age, personality and natal origin (immigrant or local-born); (ii) was influenced by natal environment, because individuals had a lower PSP when born in poor-quality habitat, or where local population density was high, leading to cohort effects. Links with many of the individual and environmental factors were present only in some years. In addition, PSP (iii) had little or no measurable heritability, as estimated by a Bayesian animal model; and (iv) was not influenced by maternal effects. Despite previous reports of links between PSP and a range of functional traits in this population, the analyses here suggest that innovativeness had weak if any evolutionary potential. Instead most individual variation was caused by phenotypic plasticity driven by links with other behavioural traits and by environmentally mediated developmental stress. Heritability estimates are population, time and context specific, however, and more studies are needed to determine the generality of these effects. Our results shed light on the causes of innovativeness within populations, and add to the debate on the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving phenotypic variation within populations. PMID:26926275

  2. Environmental and genetic determinants of innovativeness in a natural population of birds.

    PubMed

    Quinn, John L; Cole, Ella F; Reed, Thomas E; Morand-Ferron, Julie

    2016-03-19

    Much of the evidence for the idea that individuals differ in their propensity to innovate and solve new problems has come from studies on captive primates. Increasingly, behavioural ecologists are studying innovativeness in wild populations, and uncovering links with functional behaviour and fitness-related traits. The relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving this variation, however, remains unknown. Here, we present the results of the first large-scale study to examine a range of causal factors underlying innovative problem-solving performance (PSP) among 831 great tits (Parus major) temporarily taken into captivity. Analyses show that PSP in this population: (i) was linked to a variety of individual factors, including age, personality and natal origin (immigrant or local-born); (ii) was influenced by natal environment, because individuals had a lower PSP when born in poor-quality habitat, or where local population density was high, leading to cohort effects. Links with many of the individual and environmental factors were present only in some years. In addition, PSP (iii) had little or no measurable heritability, as estimated by a Bayesian animal model; and (iv) was not influenced by maternal effects. Despite previous reports of links between PSP and a range of functional traits in this population, the analyses here suggest that innovativeness had weak if any evolutionary potential. Instead most individual variation was caused by phenotypic plasticity driven by links with other behavioural traits and by environmentally mediated developmental stress. Heritability estimates are population, time and context specific, however, and more studies are needed to determine the generality of these effects. Our results shed light on the causes of innovativeness within populations, and add to the debate on the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving phenotypic variation within populations.

  3. Trend of cardiovascular risk factors in the East German population 1968-1992.

    PubMed

    Heinemann, L; Barth, W; Hoffmeister, H

    1995-06-01

    The deteriorating trend of life expectance since the mid 1970s, mainly due to higher cardiovascular mortality in the East compared to West Germany, requires explanations about what happened to the cardiovascular risk factor profile in the East. Epidemiologic studies in the East German population have been performed for about 25 years and can justify a first answer to the question, whether the opening gap in life expectancy could be attributable to a deteriorating cardiovascular risk factor profile of the 25-64 year old population. During a review process reliable epidemiological studies in the East German population have been identified to describe sequential changes from 1968 to 1992 in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) total cholesterol (CHOL), body mass index (BMI) and cigarette smoking in five periods of time. The mean SBP increased in males of higher age groups, whereas it dropped in females in all age groups in this period of time. The mean CHOL showed a striking increase in both sexes and levelled off in the mid 1980s only. The mean BMI increased slightly in men of the middle age groups and remained almost unchanged in women. The prevalence of cigarette smoking increased in both sexes until the 1970s, and declined thereafter in the age groups over 40, however, there is an increasing tendency in young age groups and females after the wall came down. These trends are congruent with the hypothesis, that the increasingly unfavourable trend of life expectancy in East Germany (compared to the continuously improving trend in West Germany) is at least partly attributable to the trend of the cardiovascular risk factor profile.

  4. Fertility rates and future population trends: will Europe's birth rate recover or continue to decline?

    PubMed

    Lutz, Wolfgang

    2006-02-01

    Europe has long completed its demographic transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. But the demographic transition paradigm that has been very useful for explaining global demographic trends during the 20th century and that still has strong predictive power when it comes to projecting future trends in countries that still have high fertility, has nothing to say about the future of fertility in Europe. The currently popular notion of a 'second demographic transition' is a useful way to describe a bundle of behavioural and normative changes that recently happened in Europe, but it has no predictive power. The social sciences have not yet come up with a useful theory to predict the future fertility level of post-demographic transition societies. We even do not know whether the trend will be up or down. Given the lack of a predictive theory, this paper will try to do two things: (i) Summarize different substantive arguments that would either suggest the assumption of a recovery of fertility rates in Europe or alternatively, imply further declines. (ii) Convert this discussion of the uncertainty of future fertility trends into probabilistic population projections for Europe, thus highlighting the implications of alternative fertility levels over the coming years. We will also discuss trade-offs between fertility and immigration, and the phenomenon that Europe now has entered a period of negative momentum of population growth.

  5. Conflicting Readmission Rate Trends in a High-Risk Population: Implications for Performance Measurement

    PubMed Central

    Vann, Julie C. Jacobson; Jackson, Carlos T.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The 30-day readmission rate is a common performance indicator for hospitals and accountable care entities. There is reason to question whether measuring readmissions as a function of hospital discharges is an appropriate measure of performance for initiatives that aim to improve overall cost and quality outcomes in a population. The objectives of this study were to compare trends in 30-day readmission rates per discharge to population-based measures of hospital admission and readmission frequency in a high-risk statewide Medicaid population over a 5-year period of quality improvement and care management intervention. Further, this study aimed to examine case-mix changes among hospitalized beneficiaries over time. This was a retrospective analysis of North Carolina Medicaid paid claims 2008 through 2012 for beneficiaries with multiple chronic or catastrophic conditions. Thirty-day readmission rates per discharge trended upward from 18.3% in 2008 to 18.7% in 2012. However, the rate of 30-day readmissions per 1000 beneficiaries declined from 123.3 to 110.7. Overall inpatient admissions per 1000 beneficiaries decreased from 579.4 to 518.5. The clinical complexity of hospitalized patients increased over the 5-year period. Although rates of hospital admissions and readmissions fell substantially in this high-risk population over 5 years, the 30-day readmission rate trend appeared unfavorable when measured as a percent of hospital discharges. This may be explained by more complex patients requiring hospitalization over time. The choice of metrics significantly affects the perceived effectiveness of improvement initiatives. Emphasis on readmission rates per discharge may be misguided for entities with a population health management focus. (Population Health Management 2015;18:351–357) PMID:25607449

  6. Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

  7. The ornament-condition relationship varies with parasite abundance at population level in a female bird

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Pablo; Martínez-Padilla, Jesús; Redpath, Stephen M.; Mougeot, Francois

    2011-10-01

    Environmental heterogeneity is expected to create variation in the ornament-condition relationship. This topic has been studied in males with less attention being given to females. Here, we explore inter-population variation in the relationship between the size of a male-like trait, supra-orbital combs, and body mass in female red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus. We used the abundance of the nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis, a parasite with strong negative effects on this species, as a proxy of environmental conditions. We studied six populations over 5 years and showed that the comb size-body mass relationship varied with mean parasite abundance, with stronger ornament-condition relationships in populations with higher parasite infection levels. Our study supports the idea that environmental conditions, and in particular parasite infection levels, may affect the reliability of female ornaments as condition indicators.

  8. Status and population trends of Hawaii's native waterbirds, 1977-1987

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engilis, Andrew; Pratt, Thane K.

    1993-01-01

    Status and population trends of Hawaiis ’ native waterbirds were examined from 1977 through 1987. Waterbird population fluctuations were analyzed in relation to rainfall and land use dynamics. Numbers of Hawaiian Duck (Koloa) (Anus wyvilliana) and Hawaiian Common Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus sandvicensis) appeared stable over time; however, surveys were limited. Increase in Black-crowned Night-Heron (Nycticorux nycticorux) abundance appeared linked to expansion of aquaculture, particularly on Oahu, and not to climatic events. Annual rainfall patterns help explain and predict population fluctuations and anomalous distribution patterns involving Hawaiian American Coots (Fulica americana alai), moorhens, and Hawaiian Black-necked Stilts (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni). Coot, stilt, and moorhen populations fluctuated with climatic events, and intraisland dispersal to ephemeral wetlands occurred. Stilts exhibited regular inter-island migratory behavior, but coots dispersed in relation to major rainfall events. Seasonal fluctuation recorded for coots by past observers is the result of survey techniques not accounting for seasonal dispersal patterns.

  9. [Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

    PubMed

    Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

    2013-10-01

    To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family. PMID:24115655

  10. Wild boar populations up, numbers of hunters down? A review of trends and implications for Europe.

    PubMed

    Massei, Giovanna; Kindberg, Jonas; Licoppe, Alain; Gačić, Dragan; Šprem, Nikica; Kamler, Jiří; Baubet, Eric; Hohmann, Ulf; Monaco, Andrea; Ozoliņš, Janis; Cellina, Sandra; Podgórski, Tomasz; Fonseca, Carlos; Markov, Nickolay; Pokorny, Boštjan; Rosell, Carme; Náhlik, András

    2015-04-01

    Across Europe, wild boar numbers increased in the 1960s-1970s but stabilised in the 1980s; recent evidence suggests that the numbers and impact of wild boar has grown steadily since the 1980s. As hunting is the main cause of mortality for this species, we reviewed wild boar hunting bags and hunter population trends in 18 European countries from 1982 to 2012. Hunting statistics and numbers of hunters were used as indicators of animal numbers and hunting pressure. The results confirmed that wild boar increased consistently throughout Europe, while the number of hunters remained relatively stable or declined in most countries. We conclude that recreational hunting is insufficient to limit wild boar population growth and that the relative impact of hunting on wild boar mortality had decreased. Other factors, such as mild winters, reforestation, intensification of crop production, supplementary feeding and compensatory population responses of wild boar to hunting pressure might also explain population growth. As populations continue to grow, more human-wild boar conflicts are expected unless this trend is reversed. New interdisciplinary approaches are urgently required to mitigate human-wild boar conflicts, which are otherwise destined to grow further.

  11. Candidate gene–environment interactions and their relationships with timing of breeding in a wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Bourret, Audrey; Garant, Dany

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring and predicting evolutionary changes underlying current environmental modifications are complex challenges. Recent approaches to achieve these objectives include assessing the genetic variation and effects of candidate genes on traits indicating adaptive potential. In birds, for example, short tandem repeat polymorphism at four candidate genes (CLOCK, NPAS2, ADCYAP1, and CREB1) has been linked to variation in phenological traits such as laying date and timing of migration. However, our understanding of their importance as evolutionary predictors is still limited, mainly because the extent of genotype–environment interactions (GxE) related to these genes has yet to be assessed. Here, we studied a population of Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) over 4 years in southern Québec (Canada) to assess the relationships between those four candidate genes and two phenological traits related to reproduction (laying date and incubation duration) and also determine the importance of GxE in this system. Our results showed that NPAS2 female genotypes were nonrandomly distributed across the study system and formed a longitudinal cline with longer genotypes located to the east. We observed relationships between length polymorphism at all candidate genes and laying date and/or incubation duration, and most of these relationships were affected by environmental variables (breeding density, latitude, or temperature). In particular, the positive relationships detected between laying date and both CLOCK and NPAS2 female genotypes were variable depending on breeding density. Our results suggest that all four candidate genes potentially affect timing of breeding in birds and that GxE are more prevalent and important than previously reported in this context. PMID:26380692

  12. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    PubMed

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  13. Temporal trends of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in eggs of coastal and offshore birds: Increasing PFAS levels associated with offshore bird species breeding on the Pacific coast of Canada and wintering near Asia.

    PubMed

    Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Lee, Sandi; Cyr, Francois

    2015-08-01

    Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) such as perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) have become virtually ubiquitous throughout the environment, and, based on laboratory studies, have known toxicological consequences. Various national and international voluntary phase-outs and restrictions on these compounds have been implemented over the last 10 to 15 years. In the present study, we examine trends (1990/1991-2010/2011) in aquatic birds (ancient murrelet, Synthliboramphus antiquus [2009 only]; Leach's storm-petrels, Oceanodroma leucorhoa; rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata; double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus; and great blue herons, Ardea herodias). The PFCA, PFSA, and stable isotope (δ(15) N and δ(13) C) data collected from these species from the Pacific coast of Canada, ranging over 20 to 30 years, were used to investigate temporal changes in PFAS coupled to dietary changes. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), the dominant PFSA compound in all 4 species, increased and subsequently decreased in auklet and cormorant eggs in line with the manufacturing phase-out of PFOS and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), but concentrations continuously increased in petrel eggs and remained largely unchanged in heron eggs. Dominant PFCA compounds varied between the offshore and coastal species, with increases seen in the offshore species and little or variable changes seen in the coastal species. Little temporal change was seen in stable isotope values, indicating that diet alone is not driving observed PFAS concentrations. PMID:25989421

  14. Temporal trends of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in eggs of coastal and offshore birds: Increasing PFAS levels associated with offshore bird species breeding on the Pacific coast of Canada and wintering near Asia.

    PubMed

    Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Lee, Sandi; Cyr, Francois

    2015-08-01

    Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) such as perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) have become virtually ubiquitous throughout the environment, and, based on laboratory studies, have known toxicological consequences. Various national and international voluntary phase-outs and restrictions on these compounds have been implemented over the last 10 to 15 years. In the present study, we examine trends (1990/1991-2010/2011) in aquatic birds (ancient murrelet, Synthliboramphus antiquus [2009 only]; Leach's storm-petrels, Oceanodroma leucorhoa; rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata; double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus; and great blue herons, Ardea herodias). The PFCA, PFSA, and stable isotope (δ(15) N and δ(13) C) data collected from these species from the Pacific coast of Canada, ranging over 20 to 30 years, were used to investigate temporal changes in PFAS coupled to dietary changes. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), the dominant PFSA compound in all 4 species, increased and subsequently decreased in auklet and cormorant eggs in line with the manufacturing phase-out of PFOS and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), but concentrations continuously increased in petrel eggs and remained largely unchanged in heron eggs. Dominant PFCA compounds varied between the offshore and coastal species, with increases seen in the offshore species and little or variable changes seen in the coastal species. Little temporal change was seen in stable isotope values, indicating that diet alone is not driving observed PFAS concentrations.

  15. Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mace, R.D.; Carney, D.W.; Chilton-Radandt, T.; Courville, S.A.; Haroldson, M.A.; Harris, R.B.; Jonkel, J.; McLellan, B.; Madel, M.; Manley, T.L.; Schwartz, C.C.; Servheen, C.; Stenhouse, G.; Waller, J.S.; Wenum, E.

    2012-01-01

    We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (mx) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued.

  16. Heritability of fear of humans in urban and rural populations of a bird species

    PubMed Central

    Carrete, Martina; Martínez-Padilla, Jesús; Rodríguez-Martínez, Sol; Rebolo-Ifrán, Natalia; Palma, Antonio; Tella, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Flight initiation distance (FID), a measure of an animal’s tolerance to human disturbance and a descriptor of its fear of humans, is increasingly employed for conservation purposes and to predict the response of species to urbanization. However, most work devoted to understanding variability in FID has been conducted at the population level and little is still known about inter-individual variability in this behaviour. We estimated the heritability of FID, a factor fundamental to understanding the strength and evolutionary consequences of selection of particular phenotypes associated with human disturbances. We used a population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) monitored long-term and for which FID was previously shown to be highly consistent across an individual’s lifespan. Heritability estimates varied between 0.37 and 0.80, depending on the habitat considered (urban-rural) and method used (parent-offspring regressions or animal models). These values are unusually high compared with those previously reported for other behavioural traits. Although more research is needed to fully understand the underlying causes of this resemblance between relatives, selection pressures acting on this behaviour should be seriously considered as an important evolutionary force in animal populations increasingly exposed to human disturbance worldwide. PMID:27499420

  17. Long-term population dynamics of breeding bird species in the German Wadden Sea area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vauk, Gottfried; Prüter, Johannes; Hartwig, Eike

    1989-09-01

    For no other group of organisms in coastal areas are there so exact and long-term data available as there are for seabirds. Since the beginning of the 20th century, documentation of population size, especially for species breeding in colonies from the groups gulls, terns and auks, is almost complete. These species act as bio-indicators, and data on fluctuations in their population size are useful as they reflect changes in the state of the marine ecosystem. The population development of some of these seabird species (Herring Gull, Guillemot, Common, Arctic and Sandwich Tern) from the German North Sea coast, which primarily feed on fish, is given. Common to all these species is an exponential increase in numbers in recent years (1970 1985). Possible causes for this development, e.g. pressure from enemies or competitors, availability of breeding places, anthropogenic stress and mortality factors, as well as the direct and indirect anthropogenic-influenced changes in the trophic system due to the increasing eutrophication of coastal waters, are evaluated. Signs of a collapse in the stocks of seabrids resulting from environmental pollution are discussed. Consequences resulting from the ecosystem changes, such as reduction of nutrient discharge into the North Sea and the expansion of biological monitoring, are described.

  18. Heritability of fear of humans in urban and rural populations of a bird species.

    PubMed

    Carrete, Martina; Martínez-Padilla, Jesús; Rodríguez-Martínez, Sol; Rebolo-Ifrán, Natalia; Palma, Antonio; Tella, José L

    2016-01-01

    Flight initiation distance (FID), a measure of an animal's tolerance to human disturbance and a descriptor of its fear of humans, is increasingly employed for conservation purposes and to predict the response of species to urbanization. However, most work devoted to understanding variability in FID has been conducted at the population level and little is still known about inter-individual variability in this behaviour. We estimated the heritability of FID, a factor fundamental to understanding the strength and evolutionary consequences of selection of particular phenotypes associated with human disturbances. We used a population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) monitored long-term and for which FID was previously shown to be highly consistent across an individual's lifespan. Heritability estimates varied between 0.37 and 0.80, depending on the habitat considered (urban-rural) and method used (parent-offspring regressions or animal models). These values are unusually high compared with those previously reported for other behavioural traits. Although more research is needed to fully understand the underlying causes of this resemblance between relatives, selection pressures acting on this behaviour should be seriously considered as an important evolutionary force in animal populations increasingly exposed to human disturbance worldwide. PMID:27499420

  19. Heritability of fear of humans in urban and rural populations of a bird species.

    PubMed

    Carrete, Martina; Martínez-Padilla, Jesús; Rodríguez-Martínez, Sol; Rebolo-Ifrán, Natalia; Palma, Antonio; Tella, José L

    2016-08-08

    Flight initiation distance (FID), a measure of an animal's tolerance to human disturbance and a descriptor of its fear of humans, is increasingly employed for conservation purposes and to predict the response of species to urbanization. However, most work devoted to understanding variability in FID has been conducted at the population level and little is still known about inter-individual variability in this behaviour. We estimated the heritability of FID, a factor fundamental to understanding the strength and evolutionary consequences of selection of particular phenotypes associated with human disturbances. We used a population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) monitored long-term and for which FID was previously shown to be highly consistent across an individual's lifespan. Heritability estimates varied between 0.37 and 0.80, depending on the habitat considered (urban-rural) and method used (parent-offspring regressions or animal models). These values are unusually high compared with those previously reported for other behavioural traits. Although more research is needed to fully understand the underlying causes of this resemblance between relatives, selection pressures acting on this behaviour should be seriously considered as an important evolutionary force in animal populations increasingly exposed to human disturbance worldwide.

  20. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

  1. State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

  2. Incidence trends of colorectal cancer in Iran during 2000-2009: A population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Abdifard, Edris; Amini, Sudabe; Bab, Sattar; Masroor, Nasim; Khachian, Alice; Heidari, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Background: As the third leading cause of death, cancers have a special place in the Iranian health system. Several studies have been done in some regions of the country with few years of follow-ups, but this was the first standardized study to investigate the incidence trends of colorectal cancer in Iran in a one-decade period. Methods: The registered data for colorectal cancer cases in National Cancer Registry System were extracted from the Center for Disease Control & Management of Ministry of Health. The codes from 18 to 21 among cancers were selected for colon and rectum cancers. Incidence rates were directly standardized, using WHO population. The significance of incidence rate trends was tested through Poisson regression. Results: In this study, 36,650 cases of colorectal cancer were observed for 10 years in Iran, which increased from 813 cases in 2000 to 6,210 cases in 2009. Gender ratio of men to women was 1.39. Significant increasing trends of colorectal cancer were observed during the period of the study. The standardized incidence rate increased from 1.6 per 100,000 persons per year in 2000 to 11.3 in 2009 in males (p<0.001), and it increased from 1.6 per 100,000 persons per year in 2000 to 10.9 in 2009 in females (p<0.001). Conclusion: Colorectal cancer has an increasing trend in Iran. The rising trend of colorectal cancer as well as other types of cancers is partially due to improvement in cancer registry systems in the early years of registry. Moreover, westernized lifestyle and an increase in environmental risks could explain this rising trend. PMID:27493926

  3. Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Garant, Dany; Hadfield, Jarrod D; Kruuk, Loeske E B; Sheldon, Ben C

    2008-01-01

    Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants, with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters, but it is as yet unclear what impact, if any, global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large, long-term, data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of, and genetic correlations among, laying date, clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods, and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods, however, showed only a minor difference among periods, thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades, and despite the large sample sizes available, we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied.

  4. Consequences of habitat change and resource selection specialization for population limitation in cavity-nesting birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    Synthesis and applications. Management should target species that specialize in resource selection on a declining resource. Species with greater resource selection generalization can reduce population impacts of environmental change. Resource generalization can allow a species like the wren to take advantage of habitat refuges, such as those provided by the elk exclosures. Yet, resource generalization cannot offset the negative impacts of broad-scale declines in habitat quality on the landscape, as demonstrated by the general decline of wrens. Ultimately, aspen is an important habitat for biodiversity, and land management programmes that protect and aid recovery of aspen habitats may be critical.

  5. Reconstructing the Phylogenetic History of Long-Term Effective Population Size and Life-History Traits Using Patterns of Amino Acid Replacement in Mitochondrial Genomes of Mammals and Birds

    PubMed Central

    Nabholz, Benoit; Lartillot, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    The nearly neutral theory, which proposes that most mutations are deleterious or close to neutral, predicts that the ratio of nonsynonymous over synonymous substitution rates (dN/dS), and potentially also the ratio of radical over conservative amino acid replacement rates (Kr/Kc), are negatively correlated with effective population size. Previous empirical tests, using life-history traits (LHT) such as body-size or generation-time as proxies for population size, have been consistent with these predictions. This suggests that large-scale phylogenetic reconstructions of dN/dS or Kr/Kc might reveal interesting macroevolutionary patterns in the variation in effective population size among lineages. In this work, we further develop an integrative probabilistic framework for phylogenetic covariance analysis introduced previously, so as to estimate the correlation patterns between dN/dS, Kr/Kc, and three LHT, in mitochondrial genomes of birds and mammals. Kr/Kc displays stronger and more stable correlations with LHT than does dN/dS, which we interpret as a greater robustness of Kr/Kc, compared with dN/dS, the latter being confounded by the high saturation of the synonymous substitution rate in mitochondrial genomes. The correlation of Kr/Kc with LHT was robust when controlling for the potentially confounding effects of nucleotide compositional variation between taxa. The positive correlation of the mitochondrial Kr/Kc with LHT is compatible with previous reports, and with a nearly neutral interpretation, although alternative explanations are also possible. The Kr/Kc model was finally used for reconstructing life-history evolution in birds and mammals. This analysis suggests a fairly large-bodied ancestor in both groups. In birds, life-history evolution seems to have occurred mainly through size reduction in Neoavian birds, whereas in placental mammals, body mass evolution shows disparate trends across subclades. Altogether, our work represents a further step toward a more

  6. Count trends for migratory Bald Eagles reveal differences between two populations at a spring site along the Lake Ontario shoreline

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The recovery of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucophalus), after DDT and other organochlorine insecticides were banned in the United States, can be regarded as one of the most iconic success stories resulting from the Endangered Species Act. Interest remains high in the recovery and growth of the Bald Eagle population. Common to evaluating growth and recovery rates are counts at nesting sites and analyses of individuals fledged per season. But this is merely one snapshot that ignores survival rates as eagles grow to maturity. By analyzing indices from migration counts, we get a different snapshot better reflecting the survival of young birds. Different populations of Bald Eagles breed at different sites at different times of the year. Typical migration count analyses do not separate the populations. A separation of two distinct populations can be achieved at spring count sites by taking advantage of the tendency for northern summer breeding birds to migrate north in spring earlier than southern winter breeding birds who disperse north later in spring. In this paper I analyze migratory indices at a spring site along Lake Ontario. The analysis shows that eagles considered to be primarily of the northern summer breeding population showed an estimated growth rate of 5.3 ± 0.85% (SE) per year with 49% of eagles tallied in adult plumage, whereas the migrants considered to be primarily of the southern breeding population had an estimated growth rate of 14.0 ± 1.79% with only 22% in adult plumage. Together these results argue that the populations of southern breeding Bald Eagles are growing at a substantially higher rate than northern breeding eagles. These findings suggest that aggregate population indices for a species at migration counting sites can sometimes obscure important differences among separate populations at any given site and that separating counts by time period can be a useful way to check for differences among sub-populations. PMID:27231647

  7. Count trends for migratory Bald Eagles reveal differences between two populations at a spring site along the Lake Ontario shoreline.

    PubMed

    Wright, Kyle R

    2016-01-01

    The recovery of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucophalus), after DDT and other organochlorine insecticides were banned in the United States, can be regarded as one of the most iconic success stories resulting from the Endangered Species Act. Interest remains high in the recovery and growth of the Bald Eagle population. Common to evaluating growth and recovery rates are counts at nesting sites and analyses of individuals fledged per season. But this is merely one snapshot that ignores survival rates as eagles grow to maturity. By analyzing indices from migration counts, we get a different snapshot better reflecting the survival of young birds. Different populations of Bald Eagles breed at different sites at different times of the year. Typical migration count analyses do not separate the populations. A separation of two distinct populations can be achieved at spring count sites by taking advantage of the tendency for northern summer breeding birds to migrate north in spring earlier than southern winter breeding birds who disperse north later in spring. In this paper I analyze migratory indices at a spring site along Lake Ontario. The analysis shows that eagles considered to be primarily of the northern summer breeding population showed an estimated growth rate of 5.3 ± 0.85% (SE) per year with 49% of eagles tallied in adult plumage, whereas the migrants considered to be primarily of the southern breeding population had an estimated growth rate of 14.0 ± 1.79% with only 22% in adult plumage. Together these results argue that the populations of southern breeding Bald Eagles are growing at a substantially higher rate than northern breeding eagles. These findings suggest that aggregate population indices for a species at migration counting sites can sometimes obscure important differences among separate populations at any given site and that separating counts by time period can be a useful way to check for differences among sub-populations.

  8. Count trends for migratory Bald Eagles reveal differences between two populations at a spring site along the Lake Ontario shoreline.

    PubMed

    Wright, Kyle R

    2016-01-01

    The recovery of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucophalus), after DDT and other organochlorine insecticides were banned in the United States, can be regarded as one of the most iconic success stories resulting from the Endangered Species Act. Interest remains high in the recovery and growth of the Bald Eagle population. Common to evaluating growth and recovery rates are counts at nesting sites and analyses of individuals fledged per season. But this is merely one snapshot that ignores survival rates as eagles grow to maturity. By analyzing indices from migration counts, we get a different snapshot better reflecting the survival of young birds. Different populations of Bald Eagles breed at different sites at different times of the year. Typical migration count analyses do not separate the populations. A separation of two distinct populations can be achieved at spring count sites by taking advantage of the tendency for northern summer breeding birds to migrate north in spring earlier than southern winter breeding birds who disperse north later in spring. In this paper I analyze migratory indices at a spring site along Lake Ontario. The analysis shows that eagles considered to be primarily of the northern summer breeding population showed an estimated growth rate of 5.3 ± 0.85% (SE) per year with 49% of eagles tallied in adult plumage, whereas the migrants considered to be primarily of the southern breeding population had an estimated growth rate of 14.0 ± 1.79% with only 22% in adult plumage. Together these results argue that the populations of southern breeding Bald Eagles are growing at a substantially higher rate than northern breeding eagles. These findings suggest that aggregate population indices for a species at migration counting sites can sometimes obscure important differences among separate populations at any given site and that separating counts by time period can be a useful way to check for differences among sub-populations. PMID:27231647

  9. Neonatal body condition, immune responsiveness, and hematocrit predict longevity in a wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Hodges, Christine J.; Forsman, Anna M.; Vogel, Laura A.; Masters, Brian S.; Johnson, Bonnie G. P.; Johnson, L. Scott; Thompson, Charles F.; Sakaluk, Scott K.

    2014-01-01

    Measures of body condition, immune function, and hematological health are widely used in ecological studies of vertebrate populations, predicated on the assumption that these traits are linked to fitness. However, compelling evidence that these traits actually predict long-term survival and reproductive success among individuals in the wild is lacking. Here, we show that body condition (i.e., size-adjusted body mass) and cutaneous immune responsiveness to phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) injection among neonates positively predict recruitment and subsequent longevity in a wild, migratory population of house wrens (Troglodytes aedon). However, neonates with intermediate hematocrit had the highest recruitment and longevity. Neonates with the highest PHA responsiveness and intermediate hematocrit prior to independence eventually produced the most offspring during their lifetime breeding on the study site. Importantly, the effects of PHA responsiveness and hematocrit were revealed while controlling for variation in body condition, sex, and environmental variation. Thus, our data demonstrate that body condition, cutaneous immune responsiveness, and hematocrit as a neonate are associated with individual fitness. Although hematocrit's effect is more complex than traditionally thought, our results suggest a previously underappreciated role for this trait in influencing survival in the wild. PMID:25505800

  10. Ten-year trends in overweight and obesity in the adult Portuguese population, 1995 to 2005

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background There is little information regarding the trends in body mass index (BMI) and obesity in the overall Portuguese population, namely if these trends are similar according to educational level. In this study, we assessed the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Portuguese population, overall and by educational level. Methods Cross-sectional national health interview surveys conducted in 1995-6 (n = 38,504), 1998-9 (n = 38,688) and 2005-6 (n = 25,348). Data were derived from the population and housing census of 1991 and two geographically-based strata were defined. The sampling unit was the house, and all subjects living in the sampling unit were surveyed. Height and weight were self-reported; the effects of gender, age group and educational level were also assessed by self-reported structured questionnaires. Bivariate comparisons were performed using Chi-square or analysis of variance (ANOVA). Trends in BMI levels were assessed by linear regression analysis, while trends in the prevalence of obesity were assessed by logistic regression. Results Mean (±standard deviation) BMI increased from 25.2 ± 4.0 in 1995-6 to 25.7 ± 4.5 kg/m2 in 2005-6. Prevalence of overweight remained stable (36.1% in 1995-6 and 36.4% in 2005) while prevalence of obesity increased (11.5% in 1995-6 and 15.1% in 2005-6). Similar findings were observed according to age group. Mean age-adjusted BMI increase (expressed in kg/m2/year and 95% confidence interval) was 0.073 (0.062, 0.084), 0.016 (0.000, 0.031) and 0.073 (0.049, 0.098) in men with primary, secondary and university levels, respectively; the corresponding values in women were 0.085 (0.073, 0.097), 0.052 (0.035, 0.069) and 0.062 (0.038, 0.084). Relative to 1995-6, obesity rates increased by 48%, 41% and 59% in men and by 40%, 75% and 177% in women with primary, secondary and university levels, respectively. The corresponding values for overweight were 6%, 1% and 23% in men and 5%, 7% and 65% in women

  11. Secular trend in stature in the Portuguese population (1904-2000).

    PubMed

    Padez, C

    2003-01-01

    The records of height of 995 101 18-year-old Portuguese males were analysed as well as the relation between localities of the subject's residence (districts) and final height. The sample includes all the Portuguese 18-year-old males born between 1966 and 1982 and examined between 1985 and 2000, in the north, centre and south of Portugal, representing all the social strata. Statistically significant differences (p trend in height was found. The average increase was 8.93 cm, which yields a rate of 0.99 cm per decade. This positive trend must be related to the general improvement in the population's standard living conditions that took place in Portugal mainly after the 1960s and 1970s, especially in terms of nutrition and the health system. However, taking into account the differences that still exist in mean height values between the districts, these results suggest that there are still great social inequalities in Portugal and the secular trend in height will continue for the Portuguese population in future decades.

  12. Combined Influences of Model Choice, Data Quality, and Data Quantity When Estimating Population Trends

    PubMed Central

    Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E.; Regan, Tracey J.; Franklin, Janet; Regan, Helen M.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating and projecting population trends using population viability analysis (PVA) are central to identifying species at risk of extinction and for informing conservation management strategies. Models for PVA generally fall within two categories, scalar (count-based) or matrix (demographic). Model structure, process error, measurement error, and time series length all have known impacts in population risk assessments, but their combined impact has not been thoroughly investigated. We tested the ability of scalar and matrix PVA models to predict percent decline over a ten-year interval, selected to coincide with the IUCN Red List criterion A.3, using data simulated for a hypothetical, short-lived organism with a simple life-history and for a threatened snail, Tasmaphena lamproides. PVA performance was assessed across different time series lengths, population growth rates, and levels of process and measurement error. We found that the magnitude of effects of measurement error, process error, and time series length, and interactions between these, depended on context. We found that high process and measurement error reduced the reliability of both models in predicted percent decline. Both sources of error contributed strongly to biased predictions, with process error tending to contribute to the spread of predictions more than measurement error. Increasing time series length improved precision and reduced bias of predicted population trends, but gains substantially diminished for time series lengths greater than 10–15 years. The simple parameterization scheme we employed contributed strongly to bias in matrix model predictions when both process and measurement error were high, causing scalar models to exhibit similar or greater precision and lower bias than matrix models. Our study provides evidence that, for short-lived species with structured but simple life histories, short time series and simple models can be sufficient for reasonably reliable conservation

  13. Population trends of Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plentovich, S.; Morton, J.M.; Bart, J.; Camp, R.J.; Lusk, M.; Johnson, N.; VanderWerf, E.

    2005-01-01

    Endemic to the islands of Guam and Rota in the Mariana Islands, Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi is the only corvid in Micronesia. Currently, it survives on Guam only because of translocation of individuals from Rota (1999-2003). Island-wide surveys in 1982 and 1995 on Rota yielded population estimates of 1,348 and 592 respectively, indicating a 56% decrease in only 13 years. A sharp decline in the only viable Mariana Crow population has serious implications for conservation efforts on Rota and for efforts to re-establish the Guam population. However, the validity of the apparent decline has been debated among scientists and government management agencies. We augmented the 1982 and 1995 island-wide VCP surveys with (1) an additional island-wide survey conducted in 1998, and (2) roadside surveys conducted during 1991-1993 and again during 1999-2002. We also outline historical changes in Rota's limestone forest based on aerial photographs and historical information. Data from all surveys indicate a significant decline in the Mariana Crow population. Declines occurred especially along the north-central coast and in the area east of the airport known as As Dudo in the 1990s, but the data indicate an island-wide decline over the entire span of the surveys. introduced predators, human persecution, and habitat loss and degradation by anthropogenic and natural causes have all contributed to the decline. Long-term preservation of this species will require effective brown treesnake Boiga irregularis control, habitat protection, continued monitoring and research, and increased public education and awareness of Rota's rare and endangered species. ?? BirdLife International 2005.

  14. The Living Planet Index: using species population time series to track trends in biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Loh, Jonathan; Green, Rhys E; Ricketts, Taylor; Lamoreux, John; Jenkins, Martin; Kapos, Valerie; Randers, Jorgen

    2005-02-28

    The Living Planet Index was developed to measure the changing state of the world's biodiversity over time. It uses time-series data to calculate average rates of change in a large number of populations of terrestrial, freshwater and marine vertebrate species. The dataset contains about 3000 population time series for over 1100 species. Two methods of calculating the index are outlined: the chain method and a method based on linear modelling of log-transformed data. The dataset is analysed to compare the relative representation of biogeographic realms, ecoregional biomes, threat status and taxonomic groups among species contributing to the index. The two methods show very similar results: terrestrial species declined on average by 25% from 1970 to 2000. Birds and mammals are over-represented in comparison with other vertebrate classes, and temperate species are over-represented compared with tropical species, but there is little difference in representation between threatened and non-threatened species. Some of the problems arising from over-representation are reduced by the way in which the index is calculated. It may be possible to reduce this further by post-stratification and weighting, but new information would first need to be collected for data-poor classes, realms and biomes.

  15. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  16. Mhc supertypes confer both qualitative and quantitative resistance to avian malaria infections in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Sepil, Irem; Lachish, Shelly; Hinks, Amy E; Sheldon, Ben C

    2013-05-22

    Major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) genes are believed to play a key role in the genetic basis of disease control. Although numerous studies have sought links between Mhc and disease prevalence, many have ignored the ecological and epidemiological aspects of the host-parasite interaction. Consequently, interpreting associations between prevalence and Mhc has been difficult, whereas discriminating alleles for qualitative resistance, quantitative resistance and susceptibility remains challenging. Moreover, most studies to date have quantified associations between genotypes and disease status, overlooking the complex relationship between genotype and the properties of the Mhc molecule that interacts with parasites. Here, we address these problems and demonstrate avian malaria (Plasmodium) parasite species-specific associations with functional properties of Mhc molecules (Mhc supertypes) in a wild great tit (Parus major) population. We further show that correctly interpreting these associations depends crucially on understanding the spatial variation in risk of infection and the fitness effects of infection. We report that a single Mhc supertype confers qualitative resistance to Plasmodium relictum, whereas a different Mhc supertype confers quantitative resistance to Plasmodium circumflexum infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate common functional properties of Plasmodium-resistance alleles in passerine birds, suggesting this is a model system for parasite-Mhc associations in the wild. PMID:23516242

  17. Disentangling the effect of genes, the environment and chance on sex ratio variation in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Postma, Erik; Heinrich, Franziska; Koller, Ursina; Sardell, Rebecca J; Reid, Jane M; Arcese, Peter; Keller, Lukas F

    2011-10-01

    Sex ratio theory proposes that the equal sex ratio typically observed in birds and mammals is the result of natural selection. However, in species with chromosomal sex determination, the same 1 : 1 sex ratio is expected under random Mendelian segregation. Here, we present an analysis of 14 years of sex ratio data for a population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on Mandarte Island, at the nestling stage and at independence from parental care. We test for the presence of variance in sex ratio over and above the binomial variance expected under Mendelian segregation, and thereby quantify the potential for selection to shape sex ratio. Furthermore, if sex ratio variation is to be shaped by selection, we expect some of this extra-binomial variation to have a genetic basis. Despite ample statistical power, we find no evidence for the existence of either genetic or environmentally induced variation in sex ratio, in the nest or at independence. Instead, the sex ratio variation observed matches that expected under random Mendelian segregation. Using one of the best datasets of its kind, we conclude that female song sparrows do not, and perhaps cannot, adjust the sex of their offspring. We discuss the implications of this finding and make suggestions for future research.

  18. Mhc supertypes confer both qualitative and quantitative resistance to avian malaria infections in a wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Sepil, Irem; Lachish, Shelly; Hinks, Amy E.; Sheldon, Ben C.

    2013-01-01

    Major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) genes are believed to play a key role in the genetic basis of disease control. Although numerous studies have sought links between Mhc and disease prevalence, many have ignored the ecological and epidemiological aspects of the host–parasite interaction. Consequently, interpreting associations between prevalence and Mhc has been difficult, whereas discriminating alleles for qualitative resistance, quantitative resistance and susceptibility remains challenging. Moreover, most studies to date have quantified associations between genotypes and disease status, overlooking the complex relationship between genotype and the properties of the Mhc molecule that interacts with parasites. Here, we address these problems and demonstrate avian malaria (Plasmodium) parasite species-specific associations with functional properties of Mhc molecules (Mhc supertypes) in a wild great tit (Parus major) population. We further show that correctly interpreting these associations depends crucially on understanding the spatial variation in risk of infection and the fitness effects of infection. We report that a single Mhc supertype confers qualitative resistance to Plasmodium relictum, whereas a different Mhc supertype confers quantitative resistance to Plasmodium circumflexum infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate common functional properties of Plasmodium-resistance alleles in passerine birds, suggesting this is a model system for parasite–Mhc associations in the wild. PMID:23516242

  19. Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans; Schaub, M.; Volet, B.; Hafliger, G.; Zbinden, N.

    2010-01-01

    Species' assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection-nondetection records) are generated. Within-season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site-occupancy models are applied directly to the detection-history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site-occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen-science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis. ) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus. ) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis. ) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria. ). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered

  20. Investigating population level trends in head injuries amongst child cyclists in the UK.

    PubMed

    Hewson, Paul J

    2005-09-01

    Case control studies suggest that cycle helmets offer their wearers protection from injury in the event of an accident. Nevertheless, encouragement and even compulsion of cycle helmet wearing has been controversial. This paper will re-examine another potential source of evidence for the role of cycle helmets. Administrative datasets are attractive because of their availability, but require careful analysis. The results presented here are obtained from analysing such data with an appropriate form of generalised additive model. Whilst helmet wearing surveys in the UK suggest strongly divergent trends in wearing rates between male and female children, there is little evidence from "Hospital Episode Statistics" to indicate similarly divergent trends in terms of head injury. Conversely, it can be confirmed that head injuries are falling faster among cyclists than pedestrians. Although case control studies suggest cycle helmets are not effective in reducing overall injuries, it is worth noting an increase in the proportion of male child cyclists reported by the police as being killed or seriously injured in road collisions. It might be tempting to use these results to suggest that helmets are not effective in reducing head injury at the population level. Whilst the careful analysis of population level data presented here is clearly important, this paper will discuss the reasons why population and individual level analyses of cycle helmets might be different and consider some of the difficulties in assigning cause and effect with imperfect observational data.

  1. Determinants and Time Trends for Ischaemic and Haemorrhagic Stroke in a Large Chinese Population

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Yutao; Wang, Hao; Tao, Tao; Tian, Yingchun; Wang, Yutang; Chen, Yundai; Lip, Gregory Y. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background The clinical epidemiology of stroke has been widely investigated in Caucasian populations, but the changes over time in the proportion of ischaemic to haemorrhagic strokes is less clear, especially in the Chinese population. Aims Our objective was to study the determinants and time trends for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, in relation to age, in a large Chinese population cohort. Methods Using a medical insurance database in the southwest of China from 2001 to 2012, time trends in age-adjusted ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence and the contributing risk factors associated with age were investigated. Results Among 425,901 individuals without prior stroke (52.4% male, median age 54), the rate of ischaemic stroke (per 1000 patient-years) decreased between 2002–2007, then remained broadly similar between 2008–2012. The rate of haemorrhagic stroke showed a similar trend, being approximately 1.3–1.9 from 2008–2012. Compared to patients age<65, ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidences (rate, 95% confidential interval, CI) were higher in the elderly population (age <65 versus age ≥65: ischaemic: 3.64, 3.33–4.00, vs 14.33, 14.01–14.60; haemorrhagic: 1.09, 1.00–1.10 vs 2.52,2.40–2.70, respectively, both p<0.001). There were no significant differences in haemorrhagic stroke rates between the elderly and the very elderly population. Ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke shared similar risk factors (age, hypertension, coronary artery disease (CAD), vascular disease, and diabetes mellitus) (all p<0.05). In subjects age<75 years, CAD (7.17, 4.14–12.37) and diabetes mellitus (3.27, 2.42–4.42) contributed most to the developing of haemorrhagic stroke (all p<0.001). Amongst the very elderly, vascular disease (2.24, 1.49–3.37) was an additional major risk factor for haemorrhagic stroke, together with CAD and diabetes mellitus (all p<0.001). Conclusion In this large Chinese cohort, there was an increased risk of ischaemic stroke compared

  2. [Sex in Sweden--population based survey. Changed sexual pattern mirrors trends in the society].

    PubMed

    Lundberg, P O

    1999-04-21

    In a survey commissioned by the National Institute of Public Health, and carried out by specially trained staff at SIFO Research and Consulting, a representative population sample (n = 2,810, or 59 per cent of the actual sample) were interviewed regarding sexual mores. The items included 800 variables reflecting social background, lifestyle, and health, as well as knowledge, attitudes and sexual behaviour. The results showed, for instance, that Swedes have more sexual partners than 30 years ago, that anal sex is a currently fashionable trend, that oral sex is common, that relatively few are coerced to participate in sexual practices, and that the abortion rate is disturbingly high. PMID:10330869

  3. Recent population trends in nonmetropolitan cities and villages: from the turnaround, through reversal, to the rebound.

    PubMed

    Fuguitt, G V; Beale, C L; Fulton, J A; Gibson, R M

    1998-01-01

    "The purpose of this study is to track and contrast the patterns of local concentration and deconcentration in nonmetropolitan America between 1950 and 1996. We consider the growth of places by initial size as well as the growth of population living in the countryside or in unincorporated hamlets.... To determine how widespread and consistent the trends are, we compare patterns of growth by nearness to metropolitan areas, and by region of the country. We also examine differences among a subset of nonmetropolitan places distinguished by the primary socioeconomic character of their county. Using a detailed data file from the 1990 census, we are able to give some consideration to commuting."

  4. Latino Population Growth, Characteristics, and Settlement Trends: Implications for Social Work Education in a Dynamic Political Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vidal de Haymes, Maria; Kilty, Keith M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper identifies a number of significant contemporary trends in the Latino population, including the striking growth of the community, new points of entry and settlement for recent immigrants, the mixed-status nature of families, and the increase in the proportion of U.S. households that speak Spanish. The implications of these trends for…

  5. Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiao, Shengwu; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Li, Xianda; Ouyang, Yanlan

    2016-09-01

    The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qingfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met.

  6. Capitalism and population in Latin American agriculture: recent trends and problems.

    PubMed

    Miro, C A; Rodriguez, D

    1982-04-01

    "On the basis of a body of empirical research, the authors explore the relationship between agrarian structure and population [in Latin America]. After an introduction in which they present their theoretical and methodological orientation, they describe the current changing trends in agrarian structure, among which are the 'intensification' of the process of the penetration of capitalistic forms into agriculture." They then discuss the relationships between agrarian structure and demographic variables, particularly fertility and migration. In the final section, some guidelines for future research are presented. This paper is a revised version of an evaluation study carried out to assess the contributions of 14 research projects financed by the Programme of Social Research on Population in Latin America (PISPAL).

  7. Marine bird populations of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Strait of Georgia and adjacent waters in 1978 and 1979

    SciTech Connect

    Wahl, T.R.; Speich, S.M.; Manuwal, D.A.; Hirsch, K.V.; Miller, C.

    1981-10-01

    The threat of oil pollution in the Strait of Juan de Fuca has prompted this study of marine birds in Washington State. The study was conducted from 1 January 1978 to 31 December 1979 in the Strait of Juan de Fuca north to the San Juan Islands and Point Roberts and west to Sidney, British Columbia. Major objectives were to determine the time of occurrence, distribution, abundance, and locations of important concentrations of marine birds. Data were obtained on breeding marine birds on 99 geographic units in American waters.

  8. Differing trends in the incidence of vascular comorbidity in MS and the general population

    PubMed Central

    Fisk, John; Tremlett, Helen; Wolfson, Christina; Warren, Sharon; Blanchard, James; Patten, Scott B.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: Although the adverse effects of vascular comorbidities are increasingly recognized in multiple sclerosis (MS), the epidemiology of these conditions remains poorly understood. Methods: Using population-based administrative data, we identified 44,452 Canadians with MS and 220,849 age-, sex- and geographically matched controls. We applied validated definitions to estimate the incidence of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) from 1995 to 2005. Results: Of the MS cases, 31,757 (71.4%) were in female participants, with a mean (SD) age at the index date of 43.8 (13.7) years. Over time, the age-standardized incidence of diabetes rose more in the MS population (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per year 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.08) than in the matched population (IRR per year 1.02; 95% CI 1.01–1.03). Temporal trends in the age-standardized incidence of hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and IHD were similar in both populations. Among those aged 20–44 years, the incidence of IHD was higher in the MS population (IRR 1.59; 95% CI 1.19–2.11). The increased incidence of IHD in the MS population was attenuated among those aged 60 years and older (IRR 1.01; 95% CI 0.97–1.06). Conclusions: The incidence rates of diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia are rising within the MS population. Programs to systematically prevent and treat these conditions are needed. PMID:27104065

  9. A Population Study of Golden Eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Population Trend Analysis, 1994-1997

    SciTech Connect

    Predatory Bird Research Group, Long Marine Laboratory

    1999-07-20

    The wind industry has annually reported 28-43 turbine blade strike casualties of golden eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, and many more carcasses have doubtless gone unnoticed. Because this species is especially sensitive to adult survival rate changes, we focused upon estimating the demographic trend of the population. In aerial surveys, we monitored survival within a sample of 179 radio-tagged eagles over a four-year period. We also obtained data on territory occupancy and reproduction of about 65 eagle pairs residing in the area. Of 61 recorded deaths of radio-tagged eagles during the four-year investigation, 23 (38%) were caused by wind turbine blade strikes. Additional fatalities were unrecorded because blade strikes sometimes destroy radio transmitters. Annual survival was estimated at 0.7867 (SE=0.0263) for non-territorial eagles and 0.8964 (SE=0.0371) for territorial ones. Annual reproduction was 0.64 (SE=0.08) young per territorial pair (0.25 per female). These parameters were used to estimate population growth rates under different modeling frameworks. At present, there are indications that a reserve of non-breeding adults still exists, i.e., there is an annual territorial reoccupancy rate of 100% and a low incidence (3%) of subadults as members of breeding pairs.

  10. Trends in notifiable infectious diseases in China: implications for surveillance and population health policy.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lei; Wilson, David P

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to analyse trends in notifiable infectious diseases in China, in their historical context. Both English and Chinese literature was searched and diseases were categorised according to the type of disease or transmission route. Temporal trends of morbidity and mortality rates were calculated for eight major infectious diseases types. Strong government commitment to public health responses and improvements in quality of life has led to the eradication or containment of a wide range of infectious diseases in China. The overall infectious diseases burden experienced a dramatic drop during 1975-1995, but since then, it reverted and maintained a gradual upward trend to date. Most notifiable diseases are contained at a low endemic level; however, local small-scale outbreaks remain common. Tuberculosis, as a bacterial infection, has re-emerged since the 1990s and has become prevalent in the country. Sexually transmitted infections are in a rapid, exponential growth phase, spreading from core groups to the general population. Together human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), they account for 39% of all death cases due to infectious diseases in China in 2008. Zoonotic infections, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), rabies and influenza, pose constant threats to Chinese residents and remain the most deadly disease type among the infected individuals. Therefore, second-generation surveillance of behavioural risks or vectors associated with pathogen transmission should be scaled up. It is necessary to implement public health interventions that target HIV and relevant coinfections, address transmission associated with highly mobile populations, and reduce the risk of cross-species transmission of zoonotic pathogens.

  11. Trends in Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: Implications for Surveillance and Population Health Policy

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Lei; Wilson, David P.

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to analyse trends in notifiable infectious diseases in China, in their historical context. Both English and Chinese literature was searched and diseases were categorised according to the type of disease or transmission route. Temporal trends of morbidity and mortality rates were calculated for eight major infectious diseases types. Strong government commitment to public health responses and improvements in quality of life has led to the eradication or containment of a wide range of infectious diseases in China. The overall infectious diseases burden experienced a dramatic drop during 1975–1995, but since then, it reverted and maintained a gradual upward trend to date. Most notifiable diseases are contained at a low endemic level; however, local small-scale outbreaks remain common. Tuberculosis, as a bacterial infection, has re-emerged since the 1990s and has become prevalent in the country. Sexually transmitted infections are in a rapid, exponential growth phase, spreading from core groups to the general population. Together human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), they account for 39% of all death cases due to infectious diseases in China in 2008. Zoonotic infections, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), rabies and influenza, pose constant threats to Chinese residents and remain the most deadly disease type among the infected individuals. Therefore, second-generation surveillance of behavioural risks or vectors associated with pathogen transmission should be scaled up. It is necessary to implement public health interventions that target HIV and relevant coinfections, address transmission associated with highly mobile populations, and reduce the risk of cross-species transmission of zoonotic pathogens. PMID:22359565

  12. Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study

    PubMed Central

    Loane, Maria; de Walle, Hermien; Arriola, Larraitz; Addor, Marie-Claude; Barisic, Ingeborg; Beres, Judit; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Haeusler, Martin; Klungsoyr, Kari; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O’Mahony, Mary T; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Sipek, Antonin; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Study question What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? Methods This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. Summary answer and limitations Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. What this study adds In the absence of mandatory fortification

  13. Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, 2011

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, Kurt; Happe, Patricia; Griffin, Paul C.; Beirne, Katherine; Hoffman, Roger; Baccus, William

    2011-01-01

    We conducted an aerial helicopter survey between July 18 and July 25, 2011, to estimate abundance and trends of introduced mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains. The survey was the first since we developed a sightability correction model in 2008, which provided the means to estimate the number of mountain goats present in the surveyed areas and not seen during the aerial surveys, and to adjust for undercounting biases. Additionally, the count was the first since recent telemetry studies revealed that the previously defined survey zone, which was delineated at lower elevations by the 1,520-meter elevation contour, did not encompass all lands used by mountain goats during summer. We redefined the lower elevation boundary of survey units before conducting the 2011 surveys in an effort to more accurately estimate the entire mountain goat population. We surveyed 39 survey units, comprising 39 percent of the 59,615-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 344±44 (standard error, SE) in the expanded survey area. Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 258 to 430 mountain goats at the time of the survey. To permit comparisons of mountain goat populations between the 2004 and 2011 surveys, we recomputed population estimates derived from the 2004 survey using the newly developed bias correction methods, and we computed the 2004 and 2011 surveys based on comparable survey zone definitions (for example, using the boundaries of the 2004 survey). The recomputed estimates of mountain goat populations were 217±19 (SE) in 2004 and 303±41(SE) in 2011. The difference between the current 2011 population estimate (344±44[SE]) and the recomputed 2011 estimate (303±41[SE]) reflects the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded lower elevation portions of the survey zone added in 2011. We conclude that the population of mountain goats has increased in the Olympic Mountains at

  14. Decline of Birds in a Human Modified Coastal Dune Forest Landscape in South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies demonstrate that old-growth forest remnants and vegetation regenerating after anthropogenic disturbance provide habitat for birds in a human modified coastal dune forest landscape in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. However, occurrence does not ensure persistence. Based on a 13-year monitoring database we calculated population trends for 37 bird species and general trends in overall bird density in different vegetation types. We evaluated species' characteristics as covariates of population trend and assessed changes in rainfall and proportional area and survey coverage per vegetation type. 76% of species assessed have declined, 57% significantly so at an average rate of 13.9% per year. Overall, bird density has fallen at 12.2% per year across old-growth forest and woody regenerating vegetation types. Changes in proportional area and coverage per vegetation type may partly explain trends for a few species but are unlikely to account for most. Below average rainfall may have contributed to bird declines. However, other possibilities warrant further investigation. Species with larger range extents tended to decline more sharply than did others, and these species may be responding to environmental changes on a broader geographical scale. Our results cast doubt on the future persistence of birds in this human modified landscape. More research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms driving population decline in the study area and to investigate whether the declines identified here are more widespread across the region and perhaps the continent. PMID:21249203

  15. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models.

    PubMed

    Rodhouse, Thomas J; Ormsbee, Patricia C; Irvine, Kathryn M; Vierling, Lee A; Szewczak, Joseph M; Vierling, Kerri T

    2012-06-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future

  16. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models.

    PubMed

    Rodhouse, Thomas J; Ormsbee, Patricia C; Irvine, Kathryn M; Vierling, Lee A; Szewczak, Joseph M; Vierling, Kerri T

    2012-06-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future

  17. Population genetic structure and direct observations reveal sex-reversed patterns of dispersal in a cooperative bird

    PubMed Central

    Harrison, Xavier A; York, Jennifer E; Young, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    Sex-biased dispersal is pervasive and has diverse evolutionary implications, but the fundamental drivers of dispersal sex biases remain unresolved. This is due in part to limited diversity within taxonomic groups in the direction of dispersal sex biases, which leaves hypothesis testing critically dependent upon identifying rare reversals of taxonomic norms. Here, we use a combination of observational and genetic data to demonstrate a rare reversal of the avian sex bias in dispersal in the cooperatively breeding white-browed sparrow weaver (Plocepasser mahali). Direct observations revealed that (i) natal philopatry was rare, with both sexes typically dispersing locally to breed, and (ii), unusually for birds, males bred at significantly greater distances from their natal group than females. Population genetic analyses confirmed these patterns, as (i) corrected Assignment index (AIc), FST tests and isolation-by-distance metrics were all indicative of longer dispersal distances among males than females, and (ii) spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated stronger within-group genetic structure among females than males. Examining the spatial scale of extra-group mating highlighted that the resulting ‘sperm dispersal’ could have acted in concert with individual dispersal to generate these genetic patterns, but gamete dispersal alone cannot account entirely for the sex differences in genetic structure observed. That leading hypotheses for the evolution of dispersal sex biases cannot readily account for these sex-reversed patterns of dispersal in white-browed sparrow weavers highlights the continued need for attention to alternative explanations for this enigmatic phenomenon. We highlight the potential importance of sex differences in the distances over which dispersal opportunities can be detected. PMID:25346189

  18. Trends in suicidal behaviour and use of mental health services in Canadian military and civilian populations

    PubMed Central

    Sareen, Jitender; Afifi, Tracie O.; Taillieu, Tamara; Cheung, Kristene; Turner, Sarah; Bolton, Shay-Lee; Erickson, Julie; Stein, Murray B.; Fikretoglu, Deniz; Zamorski, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    Background: In the context of the Canadian mission in Afghanistan, substantial media attention has been placed on mental health and lack of access to treatment among Canadian Forces personnel. We compared trends in the prevalence of suicidal behaviour and the use of mental health services between Canadian military personnel and the general population from 2002 to 2012/13. Methods: We obtained data for respondents aged 18–60 years who participated in 4 nationally representative surveys by Statistics Canada designed to permit comparisons between populations and trends over time. Surveys of the general population were conducted in 2002 (n = 25 643) and 2012 (n = 15 981); those of military personnel were conducted in 2002 (n = 5153) and 2013 (n = 6700). We assessed the lifetime and past-year prevalence of suicidal ideation, plans and attempts, as well as use of mental health services. Results: In 2012/13, but not in 2002, military personnel had significantly higher odds of both lifetime and past-year suicidal ideation than the civilian population (lifetime: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17–1.50; past year: adjusted OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.09–1.66). The same was true for suicidal plans (lifetime: adjusted OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.35–1.99; past year: adjusted OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.18–2.33). Among respondents who reported past-year suicidal ideation, those in the military had a significantly higher past-year utilization rate of mental health services than those in the civilian population in both 2002 (adjusted OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.31–3.13) and 2012/13 (adjusted OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.86–5.28). Interpretation: Canadian Forces personnel had a higher prevalence of suicidal ideation and plans in 2012/13 and a higher use of mental health services in 2002 and 2012/13 than the civilian population. PMID:27221270

  19. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds.

    PubMed

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems.

  20. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

    PubMed Central

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  1. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds.

    PubMed

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  2. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  3. Temporal trends in vascular trauma in Ontario, 1991-2009: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Altoijry, Abdulmajeed; Al-Omran, Mohammed; Johnston, K. Wayne; Mamdani, Muhammad; Lindsay, Thomas F.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Vascular injuries add substantial complexity to trauma care, yet Canadian epidemiologic data on such injuries are not readily available. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to examine temporal trends in the rate of hospital admissions for vascular injuries from 1991 to 2009 in Ontario. Methods: Individuals of any age admitted to hospital because of vascular trauma in Ontario were included. Details of vascular injury and patient demographic characteristics were recorded, hospital admission rates estimated and analyses stratified by sex, age, mechanism of injury, economic status and geographic location. Time-series analysis was used to examine trends in hospital admission rates. Results: Of the 8252 hospital admissions for vascular trauma, 4287 (52.0%) involved injuries to the upper limb and 1819 (22.0%) were due to transport-related causes. Overall, the annual rate declined significantly over time, from 3.3 per 100 000 in 1991 to 2.7 per 100 000 in 2009 (p < 0.01). The subgroups with the highest rates were young men, patients with a low economic status and those living in a rural location. Declines occurred in both sexes and in all age groups except those 65 years and older. The rates of vascular injury to the neck, thorax, upper limbs and lower limbs declined over time, but not the rate of abdominal vascular injury. Although the rate of non-transport-related vascular injuries declined, the rate of transport-related vascular injuries did not change significantly over time. Decreases in annual rates occurred in both low- and high-economic status groups and in urban populations but not in rural populations. Interpretation: Overall, the annual rate of hospital admissions for vascular trauma declined significantly in Ontario over the study period. Our findings have important implications for public health and the development of injury-prevention strategies, particularly for population subgroups at high risk of vascular injury. PMID

  4. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  5. Trends in lifestyle coronary risk factors in the Danish MONICA population 1982-1992.

    PubMed

    Gerdes, L U; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Osler, M; Madsen, M; Jørgensen, T; Schroll, M

    2002-03-01

    Myocardial infarction incidence rate declined 3-5% per year during 1982-1992 in the Danish study population of the WHO MONICA Project. We examined whether smoking habits, alcohol intake, dietary habits and physical activity levels changed in the population during the same period. Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50 and 60 y, examined in 1982-4, in 1986-7, and in 1991-2, were analysed to estimate trends. A summary healthy eating index and six scores derived by factor analysis were used to analyse food frequency data. The percentage of smokers declined 1.6% per year in men, and 1.0% per year in 30-, 40- and 50-y-old women, but increased 0.9% per year in 60-y-old women. The percentages of heavy cigarette smoking men and women nevertheless remained constant and close to 30%. Total alcohol intake declined among 30-y-olds, but appeared constant in other age groups. However, among 60-y-old men and among women over 30, the percentage of wine-drinkers rose from 6-11% in 1982-4 to 9-18% in 1991-2. Only 60-y-old men became more physically active at work and only 30-y-old women more so in leisure times. The percentage of individuals with a low healthy eating index decreased and the percentage with a high index increased. More importantly, dietary factor scores showed trends suggesting that very profound and potentially beneficial changes in dietary habits occurred. Lifestyle in the DAN-MONICA population changed in several ways that may have contributed to the declining incidence of myocardial infarction during the 1980s.

  6. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  7. Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines.

    PubMed

    Hill, Jason M; Egan, J Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E; Diefenbach, Duane R

    2014-01-01

    Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) "grassland breeding" bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980-2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3-21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into

  8. Habitat Availability Is a More Plausible Explanation than Insecticide Acute Toxicity for U.S. Grassland Bird Species Declines

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Jason M.; Egan, J. Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2014-01-01

    Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland

  9. Population risk factors and trends in health care and public policy.

    PubMed

    Haughton, Betsy; Stang, Jamie

    2012-03-01

    Many factors affect the current and future practice of dietetics in the United States. This article provides an overview of the most important population risk factors and trends in health care and public policy that are anticipated to affect the current dietetics workforce and future of dietetics training and practice. It concludes with an overview of the state of the current workforce, highlighting the opportunities and challenges it will face in the future. Demographic shifts in the age and racial/ethnic composition of the US population will be a major determinant of future the dietetics profession because a growing population of older adults with chronic health conditions will require additional medical nutrition therapy services. Dietetics practitioners will work with an increasingly diverse population, which will require the ability to adapt existing programs and services to culturally diverse individuals and communities. Economic factors will affect not only the type, quantity, and quality of food available in homes, but also how health care is delivered, influencing future roles of registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs). As health care services consume a larger percentage of federal and corporate expenditures, health care agencies will continue to look for ways to reduce costs. Health promotion and disease prevention efforts will likely play a larger role in health care services, thus creating many opportunities for RDs and DTRs in preventive care and wellness. Increasingly, dietetics services will be provided in more diverse settings, such as worksites, community health centers, and home-care agencies. To address population-based health care and nutrition priorities effectively, dietetics practice will need to focus on appropriate evidence-based intervention approaches and targets. The workforce needs to be skilled in the delivery of culturally competent interventions across the lifespan, for all population groups, and

  10. Population risk factors and trends in health care and public policy.

    PubMed

    Haughton, Betsy; Stang, Jamie

    2012-03-01

    Many factors affect the current and future practice of dietetics in the United States. This article provides an overview of the most important population risk factors and trends in health care and public policy that are anticipated to affect the current dietetics workforce and future of dietetics training and practice. It concludes with an overview of the state of the current workforce, highlighting the opportunities and challenges it will face in the future. Demographic shifts in the age and racial/ethnic composition of the US population will be a major determinant of future the dietetics profession because a growing population of older adults with chronic health conditions will require additional medical nutrition therapy services. Dietetics practitioners will work with an increasingly diverse population, which will require the ability to adapt existing programs and services to culturally diverse individuals and communities. Economic factors will affect not only the type, quantity, and quality of food available in homes, but also how health care is delivered, influencing future roles of registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs). As health care services consume a larger percentage of federal and corporate expenditures, health care agencies will continue to look for ways to reduce costs. Health promotion and disease prevention efforts will likely play a larger role in health care services, thus creating many opportunities for RDs and DTRs in preventive care and wellness. Increasingly, dietetics services will be provided in more diverse settings, such as worksites, community health centers, and home-care agencies. To address population-based health care and nutrition priorities effectively, dietetics practice will need to focus on appropriate evidence-based intervention approaches and targets. The workforce needs to be skilled in the delivery of culturally competent interventions across the lifespan, for all population groups, and

  11. A brief report on the illegal cage-bird trade in southern Florida: a potentially serious negative impact on the eastern population of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sykes, P.W.; Manfredi, L.; Padura, M.

    2006-01-01

    Populations of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) have been declining annually over the past 35 years. A cursory survey indicates that illegal trapping of Painted Buntings for a black market cage-bird trade is widespread in southeastern Florida. Coupled with other negative factors confronting the eastern population, the trapping of buntings for the cagebird trade may, in time, produce dire results for this native songbird. Law enforcement personnel need to continue to monitor the illegal activity of trapping native passerines for the local songbird market and to continue to arrest those who support it.

  12. Long-term population, productivity, and energy use trends in the sequence of leading capitalist nations.

    SciTech Connect

    LePoire, D. J.

    2010-10-01

    There are many theories on why sustainable science, technology, and commerce emerged first in Western Europe rather than elsewhere. A general theory is that the geography of Europe facilitated the development of diverse and independent states and resultant competition among them. Over the past 500 years, the sequence of leading states began with Portugal and the Netherlands on the edge of continental Western Europe, then moved to the British Isles, and finally moved across the Atlantic Ocean to the United States. The transitions of leadership from one state to another occurred about every 100 years. This sequence suggests that leadership moves from smaller states to larger states (although not to the largest existing state at the time), perhaps because larger states have the flexibility to develop more complex organizational processes and adapt new technology. To explore this theory further, this paper analyzes state population data at the beginning and end of each leadership period. The data reveal an accelerating initial population sequence. Further understanding is gained from comparing the populations of the preceding and succeeding states at the time of each transition: the succeeding state's population is usually about two times larger than that of the preceding state. It is also seen that over time, the new organizational processes and technologies developed by the leading state are diffused and adapted by other states. Evidence of the effects of this diffusion should be seen in the dynamics of relative productivity and energy use (since the relative advantage of new ideas and technology can be maintained for a short period of about 100 years). This paper investigates these trends in population, trade, and resources to provide insight on possible future transitions.

  13. Juvenile river herring habitat use and marine emigration trends: comparing populations.

    PubMed

    Turner, Sara M; Limburg, Karin E

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile habitat use and early life migratory behaviors of successfully recruited adult fish provide unique insight into critical habitats for a population, and this information allows restoration plans to be tailored to maximize benefits. Retrospective analysis of adult otolith chemistry combined with fish-otolith growth models were used to assess juvenile nursery habitat selection and size at egress to adult habitats (marine waters) for anadromous alewife and blueback herring from 20 rivers throughout the eastern US. Between-species differences in the size of emigrants were small, with blueback herring found in freshwater nurseries ~ 8% more frequently than alewives, and alewives using a combination of freshwater and estuarine nurseries ~ 9% more than bluebacks. Estuarine nursery use was more common in populations at lower latitudes. No clear trends in sizes of emigrants or habitat use were observed between the species in watersheds where both co-occur. Principal component analysis of latitude, watershed area, estuary area, accessible river kilometers, and percentage of the watershed in urban use indicated that the combined effects of these watershed characteristics were correlated with size at egress. These results highlight the considerable plasticity in early life habitat use among populations of anadromous fishes as well as the effect of watershed characteristics on early life migration timing and strategies. PMID:26369780

  14. River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems.

    PubMed

    Turvey, Samuel T; Risley, Claire L; Barrett, Leigh A; Yujiang, Hao; Ding, Wang

    2012-01-01

    Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory) species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species. PMID:22666410

  15. Global dimming and urbanization: did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imamovic, Adel; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Global dimming refers to the decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR) observed from the 1960s to the 1980s at different measurement sites all around the world. It is under debate whether anthropogenic aerosols emitted from urban areas close to the measurement sites are mainly responsible for the dimming. In order to assess this urbanization impact on SSR, we use spatially explicit population density data of 0.08° resolution to construct population indices (PI) at 157 high data quality sites. Our study extends previous population-based studies by incorporating distance-weighting as a simple aerosol diffusion model. We measured urbanization in the surrounding of a site as the PI change form 1960 to 1990 and found no negative correlation with the corresponding SSR trends from 1964 to 1989 for the 92 sites in Europe and Japan. For the 39 sites in China the correlation coefficients are significant at the 5 % level and reach around ‑0.35, while for the 26 remaining Asian, mostly Russian sites the correlation coefficients reach around ‑0.55 at the 1 % significance level. Results are similar, when the absolute levels of PIs are taken as an indicator for urbanization. Our findings call into question the existence of an urbanization effect for the sites in Europe and Japan, while such an effect cannot be ruled out for the sites in Asia, especially in Russia.

  16. Red-shouldered hawk broadcast surveys: Factors affecting detection of responses and population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McLeod, M.A.; Andersen, D.E.

    1998-01-01

    Forest-nesting raptors are often difficult to detect and monitor because they can be secretive, and their nests can be difficult to locate. Some species, however, respond to broadcasts of taped calls, and these responses may be useful both in monitoring population trends and in locating nests. We conducted broadcast surveys on roads and at active red-shouldered hawk (Buteo lineatus) nests in northcentral Minnesota to determine effects of type of call (conspecific or great horned owl [Bubo virginianus]), time of day, and phase of the breeding cycle on red-shouldered hawk response behavior and to evaluate usefulness of broadcasts as a population monitoring tool using area occupied-probability-of-detection techniques. During the breeding seasons of 1994 and 1995, we surveyed 4 10-station road transects 59 times and conducted 76 surveys at 24 active nests. Results of these surveys indicated conspecific calls broadcast prior to hatch and early in the day were the most effective method of detecting red-shouldered hawks. Probability of detection via conspecific calls averaged 0.25, and area occupied was 100%. Computer simulations using these field data indicated broadcast surveys have the potential to be used as a population monitoring tool.

  17. Juvenile river herring habitat use and marine emigration trends: comparing populations.

    PubMed

    Turner, Sara M; Limburg, Karin E

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile habitat use and early life migratory behaviors of successfully recruited adult fish provide unique insight into critical habitats for a population, and this information allows restoration plans to be tailored to maximize benefits. Retrospective analysis of adult otolith chemistry combined with fish-otolith growth models were used to assess juvenile nursery habitat selection and size at egress to adult habitats (marine waters) for anadromous alewife and blueback herring from 20 rivers throughout the eastern US. Between-species differences in the size of emigrants were small, with blueback herring found in freshwater nurseries ~ 8% more frequently than alewives, and alewives using a combination of freshwater and estuarine nurseries ~ 9% more than bluebacks. Estuarine nursery use was more common in populations at lower latitudes. No clear trends in sizes of emigrants or habitat use were observed between the species in watersheds where both co-occur. Principal component analysis of latitude, watershed area, estuary area, accessible river kilometers, and percentage of the watershed in urban use indicated that the combined effects of these watershed characteristics were correlated with size at egress. These results highlight the considerable plasticity in early life habitat use among populations of anadromous fishes as well as the effect of watershed characteristics on early life migration timing and strategies.

  18. Global dimming and urbanization: did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imamovic, Adel; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Global dimming refers to the decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR) observed from the 1960s to the 1980s at different measurement sites all around the world. It is under debate whether anthropogenic aerosols emitted from urban areas close to the measurement sites are mainly responsible for the dimming. In order to assess this urbanization impact on SSR, we use spatially explicit population density data of 0.08° resolution to construct population indices (PI) at 157 high data quality sites. Our study extends previous population-based studies by incorporating distance-weighting as a simple aerosol diffusion model. We measured urbanization in the surrounding of a site as the PI change form 1960 to 1990 and found no negative correlation with the corresponding SSR trends from 1964 to 1989 for the 92 sites in Europe and Japan. For the 39 sites in China the correlation coefficients are significant at the 5 % level and reach around -0.35, while for the 26 remaining Asian, mostly Russian sites the correlation coefficients reach around -0.55 at the 1 % significance level. Results are similar, when the absolute levels of PIs are taken as an indicator for urbanization. Our findings call into question the existence of an urbanization effect for the sites in Europe and Japan, while such an effect cannot be ruled out for the sites in Asia, especially in Russia.

  19. Global dimming and urbanization: did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imamovic, Adel; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin

    2016-03-01

    Global dimming refers to the decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR) observed from the 1960s to the 1980s at different measurement sites all around the world. It is under debate whether anthropogenic aerosols emitted from urban areas close to the measurement sites are mainly responsible for the dimming. In order to assess this urbanization impact on SSR, we use spatially explicit population density data of 0.08° resolution to construct population indices (PI) at 157 high data quality sites. Our study extends previous population-based studies by incorporating distance-weighting as a simple aerosol diffusion model. We measured urbanization in the surrounding of a site as the PI change from 1960 to 1990 and found no negative correlation with the corresponding SSR trends from 1964 to 1989 for the 92 sites in Europe and Japan. For the 39 sites in China the correlation coefficients are significant at the 5 % level and reach around -0.35, while for the 26 remaining Asian, mostly Russian sites the correlation coefficients reach around -0.55 at the 1 % significance level. Results are similar, when the absolute levels of PIs are taken as an indicator for urbanization. Our findings call into question the existence of an urbanization effect for the sites in Europe and Japan, while such an effect cannot be ruled out for the sites in Asia, especially in Russia.

  20. Global dimming and urbanization: did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imamovic, A.; Tanaka, K.; Folini, D.; Wild, M.

    2015-11-01

    Global dimming refers to the decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR) observed from the 1960s to the 1980s at different measurement sites all around the world. It is under debate whether anthropogenic aerosols emitted from urban areas close to the measurement sites are mainly responsible for the dimming. In order to assess this urbanization impact on SSR, we use spatially explicit population density data of 0.08° resolution to construct population indices (PI) at 157 high data quality sites. Our study extends previous population-based studies by incorporating distance-weighting as a simple aerosol diffusion model. We measured urbanization in the surrounding of a site as the PI change form 1960 to 1990 and found no negative correlation with the corresponding SSR trends from 1964 to 1989 for the 92 sites in Europe and Japan. For the 39 sites in China the correlation coefficients are significant at the 5 % level and reach around -0.35, while for the 26 remaining Asian, mostly Russian sites the correlation coefficients reach around -0.55 at the 1 % significance level. Results are similar, when the absolute levels of PIs are taken as an indicator for urbanization. Our findings call into question the existence of an urbanization effect for the sites in Europe and Japan, while such an effect cannot be ruled out for the sites in Asia, especially in Russia.

  1. The Power to Detect Trends in Missouri River Fish Populations within the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bryan, Janice L.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Gladish, Dan; Holan, Scott; Ellerseick, Mark

    2010-01-01

    pallid sturgeon models was not as high as other species at the current level of sampling, but an increase in the sampling effort to 16 subsamples for each of 24 bends for 20 years would generate adequate power for the pallid sturgeon in all Zones. Since gear types are selective in their species efficiency, the strength of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program approach is using multiple gears that have statistical power to detect population trends at the same time in different fish species within the Missouri River. As often is the case with monitoring studies involving endangered species, the data used to conduct the analyses exhibit some departures from the parametric model assumptions; however, preliminary simulations indicate that the results of this study are appropriate.

  2. Time trends of antidepressant drug prescriptions in men versus women in a geographically defined US population

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Wenjun; Kremers, Hilal Maradit; Yawn, Barbara P.; Bobo, William V.; St Sauver, Jennifer L.; Ebbert, Jon O.; Rutten, Lila J.; Jacobson, Debra J.; Brue, Scott M.; Rocca, Walter A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To study time trends of antidepressant drug (AD) prescriptions in a geographically defined US population between 2005 and 2011 for men and women separately. Methods Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage system, we identified all Olmsted County, MN residents who received AD outpatient prescriptions between 2005 and 2011 (seven years). We calculated the annual age-and sex-specific prevalence over seven years, and used generalized estimating equation models to test for time trends. Results The prevalence of subjects receiving at least one AD prescription was approximately two times higher in women than men consistently across the seven years of the study. The standardized annual prevalence increased from 10.8% in 2005 to 14.4% in 2011 overall, from 7.0% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2011 for men, and from 14.4% in 2005 to 18.6% in 2011 for women. The absolute percent increase was greater in women (4.2% vs. 2.9%; standardized); however, the relative percent increase was greater in men (41.4% vs. 29.2%; standardized). The relative percent increase was greater in the age group 65+ years for both men and women. Conclusions AD prescriptions are increasing over time, especially in the elderly. Women receive more AD prescriptions than men. However, the relative increase in AD prescriptions over time is greater in men than women. PMID:25113318

  3. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during ∼50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naïve estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to ∼0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (∼0.04–0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future anticipated declines in M. lucifugus occurrence can be measured. The dynamic distribution modeling approach has broad applicability to regional bat monitoring efforts now underway in several countries and we suggest ways to improve and expand our grid-based monitoring program to gain robust insights into bat population status and trend across large portions of North America.

  4. Secretarybird Sagittarius serpentarius Population Trends and Ecology: Insights from South African Citizen Science Data

    PubMed Central

    Hofmeyr, Sally D.; Symes, Craig T.; Underhill, Leslie G.

    2014-01-01

    Data from two long-term citizen science projects were used to examine the status and ecology of a Red List species, the Secretarybird Sagittarius serpentarius (Vulnerable), in South Africa. The first phase of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project operated from 1987 until 1992, and the second phase began in 2007. The Coordinated Avifaunal Roadcounts (CAR) project began in 1993 and by 1998 had expanded to cover much of the south-eastern half of the country. Data submitted up until April 2013 were used. A new method of comparing reporting rates between atlas projects was developed. Changing reporting rates are likely to reflect changes in abundance; in this instance the data suggest that the Secretarybird population decreased across much of South Africa between the two atlas projects, with a widespread important decrease in the Kruger National Park. Habitat data from the CAR project were analysed to gain insight into the ecology of the species. Secretarybirds tended to avoid transformed habitats across much of the area covered by the CAR project. In the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape, which is characterised by heavily transformed fynbos vegetation, at least 50% of Secretarybirds recorded were in transformed environments. This implies that in the Fynbos biome, at least, Secretarybirds have adapted to transformed environments to some degree. However, in the rest of the country it is likely that habitat loss, largely through widespread bush encroachment but also through agriculture, afforestation, and urbanisation, is a major threat to the species. The methods developed here represent a new approach to analysing data from long-term citizen science projects, which can provide important insights into a species' conservation status and ecology. PMID:24816839

  5. Normalized Diurnal and Between-Day Trends in Illicit and Legal Drug Loads that Account for Changes in Population

    PubMed Central

    Brewer, Alex J.; Ort, Christoph; Banta-Green, Caleb J.; Berset, Jean-Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Drug concentrations in composite municipal wastewater samples and census-based estimates of population are used to derive daily loads of illicit substances that are indexed to population. However, such estimates do not provide information on the diurnal trends of substance excretion nor can they account for changes in population. To address these limitations, a series of 1 h composites created by sampling wastewater influent at 6 min intervals was collected over four consecutive days at a single wastewater treatment plant. Creatinine (a urinary indicator), caffeine, methamphetamine, benzoylecgonine (BZE), and cocaine were analyzed by liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Diurnal trends and between-day trends were substance specific and related to the number of estimated doses and excretory half-life. Normalization to creatinine yielded trends in substances that differed significantly from non-normalized trends by accounting for changes in population within the municipality studied. Increases in normalized substance excretion observed during early morning hours originate from individuals among the resident population of the municipality due to the absence of commuters. PMID:22804833

  6. Divergent patterns of impact of environmental conditions on life history traits in two populations of a long-distance migratory bird.

    PubMed

    Balbontín, Javier; Møller, Anders P; Hermosell, Ignacio G; Marzal, Alfonso; Reviriego, Maribel; de Lope, Florentino

    2009-04-01

    Some areas have experienced recent dramatic warming due to climate change, while others have shown no change at all, or even recent cooling. We predicted that patterns of selection on life history would differ between southern and northern European populations of a long-distance migratory bird, the barn swallow Hirundo rustica, because global patterns of weather as reflected by large-scale weather phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have different effects on environmental conditions in different parts of the world frequented during the annual cycle. We investigated relationships between mean arrival date, dispersal rate and yearling survival rate among years, using two long-term population studies in Spain and Denmark. We found evidence of a difference in the effects of normalized difference vegetation index in North and West Africa on mean arrival date of male barn swallows, with the effect differing significantly between populations. Second, there was a significant interaction between ENSO and population on dispersal rate, showing that conditions in Africa during winter differentially affected dispersal in the two populations. Finally, the NAO index in winter had an effect on yearling survival that differed between populations. These findings highlight the divergent patterns of response to climate change among populations, and they suggest that climate change can differentially affect important life history traits with potential implications for maintenance of viable populations and gene flow among populations. PMID:19139919

  7. Conservation action based on threatened species capture taxonomic and phylogenetic richness in breeding and wintering populations of Central Asian birds.

    PubMed

    Schweizer, Manuel; Ayé, Raffael; Kashkarov, Roman; Roth, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Although phylogenetic diversity has been suggested to be relevant from a conservation point of view, its role is still limited in applied nature conservation. Recently, the practice of investing conservation resources based on threatened species was identified as a reason for the slow integration of phylogenetic diversity in nature conservation planning. One of the main arguments is based on the observation that threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree. However this argument seems to dismiss the fact that conservation action is a spatially explicit process, and even if threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree, the occurrence of threatened species could still indicate areas with above average phylogenetic diversity and consequently could protect phylogenetic diversity. Here we aim to study the selection of important bird areas in Central Asia, which were nominated largely based on the presence of threatened bird species. We show that although threatened species occurring in Central Asia do not capture phylogenetically more distinct species than expected by chance, the current spatially explicit conservation approach of selecting important bird areas covers above average taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of breeding and wintering birds. We conclude that the spatially explicit processes of conservation actions need to be considered in the current discussion of whether new prioritization methods are needed to complement conservation action based on threatened species.

  8. Conservation Action Based on Threatened Species Capture Taxonomic and Phylogenetic Richness in Breeding and Wintering Populations of Central Asian Birds

    PubMed Central

    Schweizer, Manuel; Ayé, Raffael; Kashkarov, Roman; Roth, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Although phylogenetic diversity has been suggested to be relevant from a conservation point of view, its role is still limited in applied nature conservation. Recently, the practice of investing conservation resources based on threatened species was identified as a reason for the slow integration of phylogenetic diversity in nature conservation planning. One of the main arguments is based on the observation that threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree. However this argument seems to dismiss the fact that conservation action is a spatially explicit process, and even if threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree, the occurrence of threatened species could still indicate areas with above average phylogenetic diversity and consequently could protect phylogenetic diversity. Here we aim to study the selection of important bird areas in Central Asia, which were nominated largely based on the presence of threatened bird species. We show that although threatened species occurring in Central Asia do not capture phylogenetically more distinct species than expected by chance, the current spatially explicit conservation approach of selecting important bird areas covers above average taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of breeding and wintering birds. We conclude that the spatially explicit processes of conservation actions need to be considered in the current discussion of whether new prioritization methods are needed to complement conservation action based on threatened species. PMID:25337861

  9. Conservation action based on threatened species capture taxonomic and phylogenetic richness in breeding and wintering populations of Central Asian birds.

    PubMed

    Schweizer, Manuel; Ayé, Raffael; Kashkarov, Roman; Roth, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Although phylogenetic diversity has been suggested to be relevant from a conservation point of view, its role is still limited in applied nature conservation. Recently, the practice of investing conservation resources based on threatened species was identified as a reason for the slow integration of phylogenetic diversity in nature conservation planning. One of the main arguments is based on the observation that threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree. However this argument seems to dismiss the fact that conservation action is a spatially explicit process, and even if threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree, the occurrence of threatened species could still indicate areas with above average phylogenetic diversity and consequently could protect phylogenetic diversity. Here we aim to study the selection of important bird areas in Central Asia, which were nominated largely based on the presence of threatened bird species. We show that although threatened species occurring in Central Asia do not capture phylogenetically more distinct species than expected by chance, the current spatially explicit conservation approach of selecting important bird areas covers above average taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of breeding and wintering birds. We conclude that the spatially explicit processes of conservation actions need to be considered in the current discussion of whether new prioritization methods are needed to complement conservation action based on threatened species. PMID:25337861

  10. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  11. Global Population Trends and Human Use Patterns of Manta and Mobula Rays

    PubMed Central

    Ward-Paige, Christine A.; Davis, Brendal; Worm, Boris

    2013-01-01

    Despite being the world’s largest rays and providing significant revenue through dive tourism, little is known about the population status, exploitation and trade volume of the Mobulidae (mobulids; Manta and Mobula spp.). There is anecdotal evidence, however, that mobulid populations are declining, largely due to the recent emergence of a widespread trade for their gill rakers, which is reflected in increasing Food and Agriculture Organization landings trends. Here, we present results from two dedicated diver surveys, one from the eManta project, which includes summary observations from ninety 10°x10° regions with ∼200–62,000 dives per region, and the other from the Reef Environmental Education Foundation, which includes spatially more detailed observations from 3 regions with ∼4,000–118,000 dives per region. We show that mobulids as a group, which includes eleven species, have globally and regionally restricted distributions, typically have low sighting frequency (<1% of dives) and aggregate in only a few locations. Of the regions surveyed by divers, almost half (47%) report declining mobulid sightings over the last decade. Divers indicate that although mobulid ecotourism occurs in many regions (45% of those reported, n = 41) they are considered protected in only 32% of the regions. Mobulids being fished or sold in local markets were reported from 16% and 12% of regions, respectively, with most being adjacent to mobulid abundance hotspot and ecotourism regions (e.g. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, east Africa). Identification of regions where ecotourism and exploitation are at odds could help prioritize conservation efforts. Vulnerability analysis, using life history characteristics, indicates that Manta spp. are vulnerable to exploitation, tolerating only low fishing mortality rates; data limitations prohibited such analysis for Mobula spp. Our analyses support previous studies in showing the need for improved conservation and monitoring efforts, and

  12. Trends and correlates in meat consumption patterns in the US adult population

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Youfa; Beydoun, May A; Caballero, Benjamin; Gary, Tiffany L; Lawrence, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Objective Few studies have examined recent shifts in meat consumption (MC), differences among US population groups, and the influence of psychosocial–behavioural factors. Design Nationally representative data collected for US adults aged ≥18 years in the 1988–1994 and 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the 1994–1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) and Diet and Health Knowledge Survey (DHKS) were used. Results We found a U-shaped trend in MC, a decrease between 1988–1994 and 1994–1996, and an increase from 1994–1996 to 1999–2004. NHANES 1988–1994 and 1999–2004 indicate that MC did not change significantly, particularly for all meat, red meat, poultry and seafood. Between 1994–1996 and 1999–2004, average MC, including red meat, poultry, seafood and other meat products, increased in men. Women’s total MC decreased, mainly due to decreased red meat and other meat products, except for increased seafood. Noticeable differences existed in the changes across population groups. Black men had the largest increase in consumption of total meat, poultry and seafood; Mexican American men had the smallest increase in poultry, seafood and other meat products. In 1999–2004, ethnic differences in MC became greater in women than among women in 1994–1996. Associations between MC and energy intake changed over time. Perceived benefit of dietary quality and food label use were associated with reduced red MC. Conclusions Noticeable differences exist in the shifts in MC across population groups and surveys. MC increased in men but decreased in women in recent years. PMID:20188005

  13. Population income and longitudinal trends in living kidney donation in the United States.

    PubMed

    Gill, Jagbir; Dong, Jianghu; Gill, John

    2015-01-01

    Living kidney donation is declining in the United States. We examined longitudinal trends in living donation as a function of median household income and donor relation to assess the effect of financial barriers on donation in a changing economic environment. The zip code-level median household income of all 71,882 living donors was determined by linkage to the 2000 US Census. Longitudinal changes in the rate of donation were determined in income quintiles between 1999 and 2004, when donations were increasing, and between 2005 and 2010, when donations were declining. Rates were adjusted for population differences in age, sex, race, and ESRD rate using multilevel linear regression models. Between 1999 and 2004, the rate of growth in living donation per million population was directly related to income, increasing progressively from the lowest to highest income quintile, with annualized changes of 0.55 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.14 to 1.05) for Q1 and 1.77 (95% CI, 0.66 to 2.77) for Q5 (P<0.05). Between 2005 and 2010, donation declined in Q1, Q2, and Q3; was stable in Q4; and continued to grow in Q5. Longitudinal changes varied by donor relationship, and the association of income with longitudinal changes also varied by donor relationship. In conclusion, changes in living donation in the past decade varied by median household income, resulting in increased disparities in donation between low- and high-income populations. These findings may inform public policies to support living donation during periods of economic volatility.

  14. Global population trends and human use patterns of Manta and Mobula rays.

    PubMed

    Ward-Paige, Christine A; Davis, Brendal; Worm, Boris

    2013-01-01

    Despite being the world's largest rays and providing significant revenue through dive tourism, little is known about the population status, exploitation and trade volume of the Mobulidae (mobulids; Manta and Mobula spp.). There is anecdotal evidence, however, that mobulid populations are declining, largely due to the recent emergence of a widespread trade for their gill rakers, which is reflected in increasing Food and Agriculture Organization landings trends. Here, we present results from two dedicated diver surveys, one from the eManta project, which includes summary observations from ninety 10°x10° regions with ∼200-62,000 dives per region, and the other from the Reef Environmental Education Foundation, which includes spatially more detailed observations from 3 regions with ∼4,000-118,000 dives per region. We show that mobulids as a group, which includes eleven species, have globally and regionally restricted distributions, typically have low sighting frequency (<1% of dives) and aggregate in only a few locations. Of the regions surveyed by divers, almost half (47%) report declining mobulid sightings over the last decade. Divers indicate that although mobulid ecotourism occurs in many regions (45% of those reported, n = 41) they are considered protected in only 32% of the regions. Mobulids being fished or sold in local markets were reported from 16% and 12% of regions, respectively, with most being adjacent to mobulid abundance hotspot and ecotourism regions (e.g. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, east Africa). Identification of regions where ecotourism and exploitation are at odds could help prioritize conservation efforts. Vulnerability analysis, using life history characteristics, indicates that Manta spp. are vulnerable to exploitation, tolerating only low fishing mortality rates; data limitations prohibited such analysis for Mobula spp. Our analyses support previous studies in showing the need for improved conservation and monitoring efforts, and suggest that

  15. Global population trends and human use patterns of Manta and Mobula rays.

    PubMed

    Ward-Paige, Christine A; Davis, Brendal; Worm, Boris

    2013-01-01

    Despite being the world's largest rays and providing significant revenue through dive tourism, little is known about the population status, exploitation and trade volume of the Mobulidae (mobulids; Manta and Mobula spp.). There is anecdotal evidence, however, that mobulid populations are declining, largely due to the recent emergence of a widespread trade for their gill rakers, which is reflected in increasing Food and Agriculture Organization landings trends. Here, we present results from two dedicated diver surveys, one from the eManta project, which includes summary observations from ninety 10°x10° regions with ∼200-62,000 dives per region, and the other from the Reef Environmental Education Foundation, which includes spatially more detailed observations from 3 regions with ∼4,000-118,000 dives per region. We show that mobulids as a group, which includes eleven species, have globally and regionally restricted distributions, typically have low sighting frequency (<1% of dives) and aggregate in only a few locations. Of the regions surveyed by divers, almost half (47%) report declining mobulid sightings over the last decade. Divers indicate that although mobulid ecotourism occurs in many regions (45% of those reported, n = 41) they are considered protected in only 32% of the regions. Mobulids being fished or sold in local markets were reported from 16% and 12% of regions, respectively, with most being adjacent to mobulid abundance hotspot and ecotourism regions (e.g. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, east Africa). Identification of regions where ecotourism and exploitation are at odds could help prioritize conservation efforts. Vulnerability analysis, using life history characteristics, indicates that Manta spp. are vulnerable to exploitation, tolerating only low fishing mortality rates; data limitations prohibited such analysis for Mobula spp. Our analyses support previous studies in showing the need for improved conservation and monitoring efforts, and suggest that

  16. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  17. Prevalence and Trends of the Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Epidemic in General Population - A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xi; Zhao, Ge; Zhang, Jian; Duan, Zhiquan; Xin, Shijie

    2013-01-01

    Objective To conduct a meta-analysis assessing the prevalence and trends of the abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) epidemic in general population. Method Studies that reported prevalence rates of AAA from the general population were identified through MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and reference lists for the period between 1988 and 2013. Studies were included if they reported prevalence rates of AAA in general population from the community. In stratified analyses possible sources of bias, including areas difference, age, gender and diameter of aneurysms were examined. Publication bias was assessed with Egger's test method. Results 56 studies were identified. The overall pooled prevalence of AAA was 4.8% (4.3%, 5.3%). Stratified analyses showed the following results, areas difference: America 2.2% (2.2%, 2.2%), Europe 2.5% (2.4%, 2.5%), Australia 6.7% (6.5%, 7.0%), Asia 0.5% (0.3%, 0.7%); gender difference: male 6.0% (5.3%, 6.7%), female 1.6% (1.2%, 1.9%); age difference: 55–64years 1.3% (1.2%, 1.5%), 65–74 years 2.8% (2.7%, 2.9%), 75–84 years1.2%(1.1%, 1.3%), ≥85years0.6% (0.4%, 0.7%); aortic diameters difference: 30–39 mm, 3.3% (2.8%, 3.9%), 40–49 mm,0.7% (0.4%,1.0%), ≥50 mm, 0.4% (0.3%, 0.5%). The prevalence of AAA has decreased in Europe from 1988 to 2013. Hypertension, smoking, coronary artery disease, dyslipidemia, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, claudication and renal insufficiency were risk factors for AAA in Europe. Conclusion AAA is common in general population. The prevalence of AAA is higher in Australia than America and Europe. The pooled prevalence in western countries is higher than the Asia. Future research requires a larger database on the epidemiology of AAA in general population. PMID:24312543

  18. Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

    2003-01-01

    Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.

  19. Trends in amenable mortality rate in the Mongolian population, 2007-2014.

    PubMed

    Surenjav, Enkhjin; Sovd, Tugsdelger; Yoshida, Yoshitoku; Yamamoto, Eiko; Reyer, Joshua A; Hamajima, Nobuyuki

    2016-02-01

    Amenable mortality (AM) is an indicator of medical care quality. This study aimed to assess the trend and magnitude of AM in Mongolia, with the purpose of providing evidence for decisions on resource allocation. This is the first study on AM trends in Mongolia. Retrospective analysis was done on mortality statistics for the period 2007-2014. Causes of death were coded according to the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Nolte & McKee's classification of AM was used for the estimation of amenable mortality rates (AMRs) in Mongolia. During the study period, a total of 130,402 deaths were registered in Mongolia, of which 44,800 (34.4%) deaths were classified as being amenable. The age-standardized AMR per 100,000 population was highest in 2007 (226.6), and declined continuously until the level of 169.2 in 2014. The rate remained consistently higher in males than in females. Cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, perinatal deaths, influenza/pneumonia/asthma and tuberculosis were the leading causes of AM in the past eight years in Mongolia. The AMR was higher in remote western provinces with harsh weather conditions, high poverty rates, lack of human resources for health, and poor infrastructure. In addition, the provinces where Mongolia's ethnic minorities live tended to have a higher AMR. The government of Mongolia needs to critically look at the regional differences in AM in order to allocate health resources, including human resources, effectively. Further studies are needed to look into the causes of regional disparities in AM, individual-level risk factors to amenable deaths, and validity of death coding in health sector. PMID:27019528

  20. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    SciTech Connect

    Wennberg, Maria . E-mail: miawennberg@skehus19.ac; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-03-15

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important.

  1. Trends in amenable mortality rate in the Mongolian population, 2007–2014

    PubMed Central

    Surenjav, Enkhjin; Sovd, Tugsdelger; Yoshida, Yoshitoku; Yamamoto, Eiko; Reyer, Joshua A.; Hamajima, Nobuyuki

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Amenable mortality (AM) is an indicator of medical care quality. This study aimed to assess the trend and magnitude of AM in Mongolia, with the purpose of providing evidence for decisions on resource allocation. This is the first study on AM trends in Mongolia. Retrospective analysis was done on mortality statistics for the period 2007–2014. Causes of death were coded according to the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Nolte & McKee’s classification of AM was used for the estimation of amenable mortality rates (AMRs) in Mongolia. During the study period, a total of 130,402 deaths were registered in Mongolia, of which 44,800 (34.4%) deaths were classified as being amenable. The age-standardized AMR per 100,000 population was highest in 2007 (226.6), and declined continuously until the level of 169.2 in 2014. The rate remained consistently higher in males than in females. Cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, perinatal deaths, influenza/pneumonia/asthma and tuberculosis were the leading causes of AM in the past eight years in Mongolia. The AMR was higher in remote western provinces with harsh weather conditions, high poverty rates, lack of human resources for health, and poor infrastructure. In addition, the provinces where Mongolia’s ethnic minorities live tended to have a higher AMR. The government of Mongolia needs to critically look at the regional differences in AM in order to allocate health resources, including human resources, effectively. Further studies are needed to look into the causes of regional disparities in AM, individual-level risk factors to amenable deaths, and validity of death coding in health sector. PMID:27019528

  2. The 1994 and 1995 summary of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

    1996-01-01

    Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey were used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations for the 2-year periods of 1993-1994 and 1994-1995. These 2-year changes were placed in the context of population trends estimated over the 1966-1995 interval. The 2-year changes were more positive during the 1993-1994 period, when 54.2% of all species exhibited positive continental trend estimates. This percentage was reduced to 47.7% during 1994-1995, as compared with 50.5% of all species having positive continental trend estimates over then entire survey period. In general, the percentage of increasing species in the Central and Western BBS regions was highest during 1993-1994, with a very marked decline in the Western BBS Region during 1994-1995. The percentage was highest in the Eastern BBS Region during 1994-1995. The continental and regional percentages of species with positive trend estimates were also analyzed for 12 groups of North American birds having shared life-history traits. Over the entire survey period, grassland birds remain the species group with the smallest percentage of increasing species. Trends during these 2-year intervals do not indicate any consistent improvement in the overall declines experienced by grassland birds since the mid-1960s.

  3. Christmas Island birds returning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Six months after their mass exodus, birds are beginning to return to Christmas Island. Roughly 17 million birds, almost the entire adult bird population, either perished or fled their mid-Pacific atoll home last autumn, leaving behind thousands of nestlings to starve (Eos, April 5, 1983, p. 131). It is believed that the strong El Niño altered the ecology of the surrounding waters and forced the birds to flee. Christmas Island is the world's largest coral atoll.“Ocean and atmosphere scientists are unsure of future directions for the El Niño conditions and cannot now predict what will happen to the birds in the coming months,” said Ralph W. Schreiber, curator of ornithology at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County in California. Heisthe ornithologist who discovered the disappearance. “The recovery of the bird populations depends on the food supply in the waters surrounding the island.” The island's birds feed exclusively on small fish and squid.

  4. A hierarchical model for regional analysis of population change using Christmas Bird Count data, with application to the American Black Duck

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data is complicated by the need to account for variation in effort on counts and to provide summaries over large geographic regions. We describe a hierarchical model for analysis of population change using CBC data that addresses these needs. The effect of effort is modeled parametrically, with parameter values varying among strata as identically distributed random effects. Year and site effects are modeled hierarchically, accommodating large regional variation in number of samples and precision of estimates. The resulting model is complex, but a Bayesian analysis can be conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We analyze CBC data for American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes), a species of considerable management interest that has historically been monitored using winter surveys. Over the interval 1966-2003, Black Duck populations showed distinct regional patterns of population change. The patterns shown by CBC data are similar to those shown by the Midwinter Waterfowl Inventory for the United States.

  5. Age specific survival rates of Steller sea lions at rookeries with divergent population trends in the Russian Far East.

    PubMed

    Altukhov, Alexey V; Andrews, Russel D; Calkins, Donald G; Gelatt, Thomas S; Gurarie, Eliezer D; Loughlin, Thomas R; Mamaev, Evgeny G; Nikulin, Victor S; Permyakov, Peter A; Ryazanov, Sergey D; Vertyankin, Vladimir V; Burkanov, Vladimir N

    2015-01-01

    After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher wher