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Sample records for bird population trends

  1. Population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Robbins, C.S.; Martin, Thomas E.; Finch, Deborah M.

    1995-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Most Neotropical migrant birds are difficult to count accurately and are moderately common over large breeding distributions. Consequently, little historical information exists on their large-scale population changes, and most of this information is anecdotal. Surveys begun in this century such as Breeding Bird Censuses and Christmas Bird Counts have the potential to provide this information, but only the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) achieves the extensive continental coverage necessary to document population changes for most Neotropical migrant birds. Conservationists and ecologists have begun to use BBS data to estimate population trends, but there is still widespread confusion over exactly what these data show regarding population changes. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge regarding population changes in Neotropical migrant birds and the methods used to analyze these changes. The primary emphasis is on the BBS (Robbins et al. 1986) because this survey provides the best available data for estimating trends of Neotropical migrants on a continental scale. To address questions about methods of analyzing survey data, we review and compare some alternative methods of analyzing BBS data. We also discuss the effectiveness of the BBS in sampling Neotropical migrant species, and review possibilities for use of alternative data sets to verify trends from the BBS.

  2. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  3. [Book review] Birds in Europe: Population estimates, trends and conservation status

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, Bruce G.

    2006-01-01

    Effective bird conservation requires knowledge of distribution, relative abundance, and population trends at multiple geographic scales. Obtaining this information for a continental avifauna poses considerable challenges, especially in Europe with its 52 countries, numerous languages and cultures, and disparate resources available for monitoring bird populations within each country. Synthesizing the available information on the status and trends of all European birds into a single volume is an enormous yet essential task necessary to direct bird conservation activities across the continent.

  4. Double sampling to estimate density and population trends in birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, Jonathan; Earnst, Susan L.

    2002-01-01

    We present a method for estimating density of nesting birds based on double sampling. The approach involves surveying a large sample of plots using a rapid method such as uncorrected point counts, variable circular plot counts, or the recently suggested double-observer method. A subsample of those plots is also surveyed using intensive methods to determine actual density. The ratio of the mean count on those plots (using the rapid method) to the mean actual density (as determined by the intensive searches) is used to adjust results from the rapid method. The approach works well when results from the rapid method are highly correlated with actual density. We illustrate the method with three years of shorebird surveys from the tundra in northern Alaska. In the rapid method, surveyors covered ~10 ha h-1 and surveyed each plot a single time. The intensive surveys involved three thorough searches, required ~3 h ha-1, and took 20% of the study effort. Surveyors using the rapid method detected an average of 79% of birds present. That detection ratio was used to convert the index obtained in the rapid method into an essentially unbiased estimate of density. Trends estimated from several years of data would also be essentially unbiased. Other advantages of double sampling are that (1) the rapid method can be changed as new methods become available, (2) domains can be compared even if detection rates differ, (3) total population size can be estimated, and (4) valuable ancillary information (e.g. nest success) can be obtained on intensive plots with little additional effort. We suggest that double sampling be used to test the assumption that rapid methods, such as variable circular plot and double-observer methods, yield density estimates that are essentially unbiased. The feasibility of implementing double sampling in a range of habitats needs to be evaluated.

  5. Winter availability of cereal stubbles attracts declining farmland birds and positively influences breeding population trends

    PubMed Central

    Gillings, Simon; Newson, Stuart E; Noble, David G; Vickery, Juliet A

    2005-01-01

    Many studies have demonstrated the selection of stubble fields by farmland birds in winter, but none have shown whether provisioning of this key habitat positively influences national population trends for widespread farmland birds. We use two complementary extensive bird surveys undertaken at the same localities in summer and winter and show that the area of stubble in winter attracts increased numbers of several bird species of conservation concern. Moreover, for several farmland specialists, the availability of stubble fields in winter positively influenced the 10 year breeding population trend (1994–2003) whereas hedgerow bird species were less affected. For skylarks and yellowhammers, initially negative trends showed recovery with 10–20 ha of stubble per 1 km square. Thus, agri-environment schemes that promote retention of over-winter stubbles will attract birds locally and are capable of reversing current population declines if stubbles are available in sufficient quantity. PMID:15870035

  6. Monitoring trends in bird populations: addressing background levels of annual variability in counts

    Treesearch

    Jared Verner; Kathryn L. Purcell; Jennifer G. Turner

    1996-01-01

    Point counting has been widely accepted as a method for monitoring trends in bird populations. Using a rigorously standardized protocol at 210 counting stations at the San Joaquin Experimental Range, Madera Co., California, we have been studying sources of variability in point counts of birds. Vegetation types in the study area have not changed during the 11 years of...

  7. Population trends and habitat occurrence of forest birds on southern national forests, 1992-2004

    Treesearch

    Frank A. La Sorte; Frank R., III Thompson; Margaret K. Trani; Timothy J. Mersmann

    2007-01-01

    We determined population trends and habitat occurrences for bird species in 14 national forests located in the Southern Region from 1992-2004. We estimated population trends for 144 species within: 14 national forests, 10 physiographic areas, and in the Southern Region as a whole. Habitat occurrences were estimated for 114 species based on 13 forest types and four...

  8. Oak Ridge Reservation Bird Records and Population Trends

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, W. K.; Giffen, N. R.; Wade, M. C.; Haines, A. M.; Evans, J. W.; Jett, R. T.

    2014-09-01

    Bird data have been collected through surveys, environmental assessments, and other observations for decades in the Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park, located on the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in East Tennessee. Birds were recorded in a variety of habitats, including wetlands, interior forests, grasslands, ponds, corridors, forest edges, and more. Most of the information was gathered from waterfowl surveys conducted from 1990 to 2008, from Partners in Flight (PIF) breeding bird surveys conducted from 1995 to 2013, and from past publications and research on Reservation birds. We have also included our own observations and, in a few instances, credible observations of ORR birds of which we have been made aware through eBird or discussions with area ornithologists and bird watchers. For the period 1950-2014, we were able to document 228 species of birds on the ORR. Several of these species are known from historic records only, while others were not known to have ever occurred on the Reservation until recently. This report does not include PIF breeding bird data from the 2014 season or any records after July 2014. Twenty-two species--approximately 10% of the total number of species observed--have state-listed status in Tennessee as endangered, threatened, or in need of management. Of the 228 species we documented, 120 are believed to be breeding birds on the ORR.

  9. Oak Ridge Reservation Bird Records and Population Trends

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, W. Kelly; Giffen, Neil R.; Wade, Murray; Haines, Angelina; Evans, James W.; Jett, Robert Trent

    2014-11-01

    Bird data have been collected through surveys, environmental assessments, and other observations for decades in the Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park, located on the US Department of Energy s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in East Tennessee. Birds were recorded in a variety of habitats, including wetlands, interior forests, grasslands, ponds, corridors, forest edges, and more. Most of the information was gathered from waterfowl surveys conducted from 1990 to 2008, from Partners in Flight (PIF) breeding bird surveys conducted from 1995 to 2013, and from past publications and research on Reservation birds. We have also included our own observations and, in a few instances, credible observations of ORR birds of which we have been made aware through eBird or discussions with area ornithologists and bird watchers. For the period 1950 2014, we were able to document 228 species of birds on the ORR. Several of these species are known from historic records only, while others were not known to have ever occurred on the Reservation until recently. This report does not include PIF breeding bird data from the 2014 season or any records after July 2014. Twenty-two species approximately 10% of the total number of species observed have state-listed status in Tennessee as endangered, threatened, or in need of management. Of the 228 species we documented, 120 are believed to be breeding birds on the ORR.

  10. Bird population trends detected by the North American breeding bird survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bystrak, D.R.; Robbins, C.S.

    1977-01-01

    Continental populations of most bird species have remained quite stable since 1966, but there have been many regional changes associated with migration disasters, breeding failures and range expansions, and a few dramatic increases in populations of introduced species. These changes often are better represented by curvilinear than by linear regressions.

  11. Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

    2016-01-01

    Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with

  12. Population trends of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Jeffrey, John J.; Woodworth, Bethany L.

    2010-01-01

    The Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge was established to protect native Hawaiian forest birds, particularly endangered species. Management for forest restoration on the refuge has consisted mainly of removing feral ungulates, controlling invasive alien plants, and reforesting former pastures. To assess effects of this habitat improvement for forest birds, we estimated density annually by distance sampling and examined population trends for native and alien passerines over the 21 years since the refuge was established. We examined long-term trends and recent short-term trajectories in three study areas: (1) reforested pastureland, (2) heavily grazed open forest that was recovering, and (3) lightly grazed closed forest that was relatively intact. Three species of native birds and two species of alien birds had colonized the reforested pasture and were increasing. In the open forest, densities of all eight native species were either stable or increasing. Long-term trends for alien birds were also generally stable or increasing. Worryingly, however, during the most recent 9 years, in the open forest trajectories of native species were decreasing or inconclusive, but in the reforested pasture they generally increased. The closed forest was surveyed in only the most recent 9 years, and trajectories of native species there were mixed. Overall, long-term population trends in Hakalau are stable or increasing, contrasting with declines in most other areas of Hawai'i over the same period. However, more recent mixed results may indicate emergent problems for this important bird area.

  13. Population trends of North American sea ducks based on Christmas Bird Count and Breeding Bird Survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Niven, D.K.; Sauer, J.R.; Butcher, G.S.

    2005-01-01

    Due to the difficulty of conducting range-wide surveys of either breeding or wintering populations, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze sea duck data from the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966-2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species. Where sufficient data exist, we compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the USGS Breeding Bird Survey. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

  14. Population trends of Black Terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.

    1997-01-01

    Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. These long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

  15. Population trends of black terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.

    1997-01-01

    Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. The long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

  16. Wood duck population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.; Fredrickson, Leigh H.; Burger, George V.; Havera, Stephen P.; Graber, David A.; Kirby, Ronald E.; Taylor, T. Scott

    1990-01-01

    The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been conducted yearly since 1966, and can be used to describe relative population density and trends of birds in North America north of Mexico. Wood ducks (Air sponsa) are difficult to survey using conventional waterfowl monitoring techniques, but a large portion of their range is surveyed by the BBS. Wood ducks are detected at low densities on many BBS routes, and population trends can be estimated for most regions. Populations have been increasing throughout North America since 1966, but statistically significant increases generally occurred only in the early (1966-78) part of the period. Roadside survey methodology used in the BBS has limitations that make it inefficient as a survey technique for wood ducks, and we recommend using modified methodologies that specifically survey wood duck habitat.

  17. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  18. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

    PubMed Central

    Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindström, Åke

    2010-01-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only. PMID:20554552

  19. Population trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Niven, D.K.; Sauer, J.R.; Butcher, G.S.

    2005-01-01

    Relative to other waterfowl, sea ducks are not well understood, yet evidence from a variety of analyses suggests that as many as 10 of the 15 species of North American sea ducks may be declining in population. However, because of the difficulty of conducting surveys of breeding populations and the lack of range-wide winter surveys, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze Audubon Christmas Bird Count data using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966 - 2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species (the White-winged Scoter; -3.7%/yr). We compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the midwinter waterfowl survey conducted by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

  20. Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend.

    PubMed

    Cuervo, José J; Møller, Anders P

    2017-01-01

    Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may

  1. Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

    PubMed Central

    Møller, Anders P.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may

  2. Disentangling the Relative Importance of Changes in Climate and Land-Use Intensity in Driving Recent Bird Population Trends

    PubMed Central

    Eglington, Sarah M.; Pearce-Higgins, James W.

    2012-01-01

    Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations. PMID:22479304

  3. Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

    PubMed

    Eglington, Sarah M; Pearce-Higgins, James W

    2012-01-01

    Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

  4. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska.

    PubMed

    Lance, B K; Irons, D B; Kendall, S J; McDonald, L L

    2001-04-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwaka Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilize shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  5. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

    PubMed Central

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory. PMID:26426901

  6. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    PubMed

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  7. New approaches to the analysis of population trends in land birds: Comment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

    1997-01-01

    James et al. (1996, Ecology 77:13-27) used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to examine geographic variability in patterns of population change for 26 species of wood warblers. They emphasized the importance of evaluating nonlinear patterns of change in bird populations, proposed LOESS-based non-parametric and semi-parametric analyses of BBS data, and contrasted their results with other analyses, including those of Robbins et al. (1989, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 86: 7658-7662) and Peterjohn et al. (1995, Pages 3-39 in T. E. Martin and D. M. Finch, eds. Ecology and management of Neotropical migratory birds: a synthesis and review of critical issues. Oxford University Press, New York.). In this note, we briefly comment on some of the issues that arose from their analysis of BBS data, suggest a few aspects of the survey that should inspire caution in analysts, and review the differences between the LOESS-based procedures and other procedures (e.g., Link and Sauer 1994). We strongly discourage the use of James et al.'s completely non-parametric procedure, which fails to account for observer effects. Our comparisons of estimators adds to the evidence already present in the literature of the bias associated with omitting observer information in analyses of BBS data. Bias resulting from change in observer abilities should be a consideration in any analysis of BBS data.

  8. Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata, white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii, Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra, black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus, and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi. The endangered Mariana crow (x̄  =  81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI  =  815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba, rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae, and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca. Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low

  9. Determinants of bird conservation-action implementation and associated population trends of threatened species.

    PubMed

    Luther, David A; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hayward, Matt W; Kester, Marieke E; Lamoreux, John; Upgren, Amy

    2016-12-01

    Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near-threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction-risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness-raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near-threatened birds worldwide.

  10. Northern bobwhite, gray partridge, and ring-necked pheasant population trends (1966-1988) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Church, Kevin E.; Warner, Richard E.; Brady, Stephen J.

    1990-01-01

    We use North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population trends for 1966-1988 for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus), and gray partridge (Perdix perdix). Bobwhite populations have undergone widespread declines, pheasant have undergone major declines in eastern North America with mixed trends elsewhere, gray partridge have undergone primarily population increases. We present suggestions for further uses of these data.

  11. Optimizing the duration of point counts for monitoring trends in bird populations

    Treesearch

    Jared Verner

    1988-01-01

    Minute-by-minute analysis of point counts of birds in mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra National Forest, central California, showed that cumulative counts of species and individuals increased in a curvilinear fashion but did not reach asymptotes after 10 minutes of counting. Comparison of the expected number of individuals counted per hour with various combinations...

  12. Monitoring bird populations by point counts

    Treesearch

    C. John Ralph; John R. Sauer; Sam Droege

    1995-01-01

    This volume contains in part papers presented at the Symposium on Monitoring Bird Population Trends by Point Counts, which was held November 6-7, 1991, in Beltsville, Md., in response to the need for standardization of methods to monitor bird populations by point counts. Data from various investigators working under a wide variety of conditions are presented, and...

  13. Population trends of grassland birds in North America are linked to the prevalence of an agricultural epizootic in Europe.

    PubMed

    Nocera, Joseph J; Koslowsky, Hannah M

    2011-03-22

    Globalization of trade has dramatic socioeconomic effects, and, intuitively, significant ecological effects should follow. However, few quantitative examples exist of the interrelationship of globalization, socioeconomics, and ecological patterns. We present a striking illustration of a cascade in which bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE; "mad cow disease") outbreaks in Europe exerted pressure on global beef markets, subsequently affecting North American hayfields and grassland bird populations. We examined competing models, which linked the prevalence of BSE in five focal countries, volume of beef exports to those countries from North America, and the amount of hayfield harvested and the abundance of grassland birds in North America. We found that (i) imports from North America increased 1 y after BSE outbreaks; (ii) probably because fewer cattle remained, the hay harvest in North America was reduced 2 y after the outbreak; (iii) the reduced hay harvest yielded a positive response in grassland bird populations 3 y after the outbreak.

  14. Population trends of grassland birds in North America are linked to the prevalence of an agricultural epizootic in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Nocera, Joseph J.; Koslowsky, Hannah M.

    2011-01-01

    Globalization of trade has dramatic socioeconomic effects, and, intuitively, significant ecological effects should follow. However, few quantitative examples exist of the interrelationship of globalization, socioeconomics, and ecological patterns. We present a striking illustration of a cascade in which bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE; “mad cow disease”) outbreaks in Europe exerted pressure on global beef markets, subsequently affecting North American hayfields and grassland bird populations. We examined competing models, which linked the prevalence of BSE in five focal countries, volume of beef exports to those countries from North America, and the amount of hayfield harvested and the abundance of grassland birds in North America. We found that (i) imports from North America increased 1 y after BSE outbreaks; (ii) probably because fewer cattle remained, the hay harvest in North America was reduced 2 y after the outbreak; (iii) the reduced hay harvest yielded a positive response in grassland bird populations 3 y after the outbreak. PMID:21383197

  15. Biological objectives for bird populations

    Treesearch

    Jonathan Bart; Mark Koneff; Steve Wendt

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the development of population based objectives for birds. The concept of population based objectives for bird conservation lies at the core of planning in the North American Bird Conservation Initiative. Clear objectives are needed as a basis for partnership, and a basis for program evaluation in an adaptive context. In the case of waterfowl,...

  16. Monitoring Canadian bird populations with winter counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dunn, Erica H.; Sauer, J.R.; Dunn, Erica H.; Cadman, M.D.; Falls, J.B.

    1997-01-01

    Two winter bird surveys in Canada have range-wide population monitoring potential: Christmas Bird Counts (CBCs) and Project FeederWatch (PFW). CBC trends are shown to be correlated to Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends, whether or not part of the winter range lies outside the CBC coverage area. Some species are poorly covered by this survey (e.g. seabirds, nocturnal species, and Neotropical migrants). Only eight Canadian breeding species that are not sampled by the BBS have their winter range well-covered by the CBC, but the CBC should be valuable as an independent source of trend data for many more species, including northern nesters with only marginal BBS coverage. More work is needed to show whether PFW trends match BBS trends; even if they do, PFW covers relatively few species, and most are monitored already by the BBS and/or CBC

  17. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Adam C.; Hudson, Marie-Anne R.; Downes, Constance M.; Francis, Charles M.

    2015-01-01

    North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species’ breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines. PMID:26147572

  18. Access to bird population data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, E.; Peterjohn, B.G.; Koneff, M.D.

    2001-01-01

    Access to bird population data is critical for effective conservation planning and implementation. Although a tremendous volume of baseline data exists, it is often diffusely distributed and inaccessible to the resource manager and decision maker. A mechanism that facilitates assembly, documentation and delivery of avian data in a user-friendly manner is needed in order to integrate bird-related information resources across agencies and organizations. To address this fundamental need, the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII), in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey's Patuxent Wildlife Research Center and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, is developing a web-based interactive system that will focus on access to bird population and habitat data used in bird management and conservation. This system, known as the NBII Bird Conservation Node, will support planning and evaluation of bird conservation activities within the context of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI), a framework for collaboration among organizations interested in bird conservation across North America. Initial development of the NBII Bird Conservation Node will focus on creating a prototype mapping application that will provide interactive access to data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the Colonial Waterbird Survey, the Breeding Waterfowl Population and Habitat Survey, and the Atlantic Flyway Mid-winter Waterfowl Survey. This prototype mapping application, to be available on-line at http://www.nbii.gov by Sep 2001, will lay the foundation for establishment of a Migratory Bird Data Center at Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, and will provide an opportunity for linking to and establishing partnerships with other sources of bird population and habitat data available over the Internet.

  19. Marine bird and sea otter population abundance of Prince william sound, Alaska: Trends following the t/v Exxon Valdez oil spill, 1989-93. Restoration project 93045. Exxon Valdez oil spill restoration project final report

    SciTech Connect

    Agler, B.A.; Seiser, P.E.; Kendall, S.J.; Irons, D.B.

    1994-05-01

    We conducted small boat surveys to estimate marine bird and sea otter (Enhdra lutris) populations in Prince William Sound, Alaska during March and July 1993, using methods developed for the 1989-91 surveys (Klosiewski and Laing 1994). During 1993, we recorded 65 birds and 13 mammal species. We estimated that 402,760 + or - 167,697 marine birds were in the Sound during March 1993, an increase of >200,000 birds over 1990 and 1991. To examine trends in our marine bird population estimates from 1989-93, we assumed that in the absence of oil spill effects, population estimates in the oiled zone would change at the same rate as those in the unoiled zone. For Prince William Sound as a whole, we examined population trends from 1989-1993, using regression analyses. We also examined the relative abundance of the species groups seen in Prince William Sound from 1972 to 1993. Sea otter populations in 1993 were estimated at 6,813 + or - 1,861 for March and 8,216 + or - 2,435 for July. We found no difference in the rate of change between the oiled and unoiled zones from 1989-93 for either the March or July population estimates. There was no significant trend in the total number of sea otters in Prince William Sound from 1989-93.

  20. Some Current Population Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taeuber, Conrad

    Population trends in the 1960's and early 1970's are examined in this 1972 speech in terms of overall national trends, the growth of metropolitan areas, the rural population, geographic shifts, internal migration, the black population, and living arrangements. It is noted that population growth in the 1960's was unevenly distributed within age…

  1. [Population trends in Luxembourg].

    PubMed

    1989-01-01

    Population trends in Luxembourg in 1988 are reviewed. Separate consideration is given to fertility, nuptiality and divorce, mortality, natural increase and migration, adoption, age and sex structure, and spatial distribution. Data are provided separately for the foreign resident population.

  2. Winter population trends of selected songbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Root, T.L.; McDaniel, Larry

    1995-01-01

    For this study we used the CBC data to examine population trends of songbirds with ranges that apparently are limited by lower temperatures in the North. We chose these species to track populations of birds that could be in peril in the future. These birds potentially will be more quickly affected by changing climate than other birds, and we need baseline information on them to document possible consequences of global climatic change. The species that are indeed declining need to be monitored because the possible synergistic effects of declining populations and changing climate could result in local and even regional extinctions.

  3. Bias of animal population trend estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geissler, P.H.; Link, W.A.; Wegman, E.J.; Gantz, D.T.; Miller, J.J.

    1988-01-01

    A computer simulation study of the population trend estimator used for the Mourning Dove Call-Count Survey, Woodcock Singing Ground Survey, Breeding Bird Survey and other surveys concluded that the estimator had negligible bias in most situations but that observer covariables should not be used with less than five years of data. With rare species (e.g. two birds per route), at least five years should be used. The estimator is seriously biased towards not detecting population changes with very rare species (e.g. 0.3 birds per route). Other technical recommendations are made.

  4. Population Trends and Prospects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mauldin, W. Parker

    1980-01-01

    Future trends in population are described as they relate to developed and developing nations. It is suggested that for the next 20 years there will be a decrease in population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. (Author/SA)

  5. Links between scale and neotropical migratory bird populations

    Treesearch

    Deborah M. Finch

    1994-01-01

    Recent concerns about the future for migratory birds, particularly those that migrate to the Tropics, have led to the development of a variety of new research and education initiatives addressing avian population ecology and conservation. Research that focuses on the relationships between migrant population trends, geographical patterns, and spatial and temporal scales...

  6. Winter bird population studies and project prairie birds for surveying grassland birds

    Treesearch

    Daniel J. Twedt; Paul B. Hamel; Mark S. Woodrey

    2008-01-01

    We compared 2 survey methods for assessing winter bird communities in temperate grasslands: Winter Bird Population Study surveys are area-searches that have long been used in a variety of habitats whereas Project Prairie Bird surveys employ active-flushing techniques on strip-transects and are intended for use in grasslands.

  7. A checklist approach for monitoring neotropical migrant birds: Twenty-year trends in birds of Quebec Using EPOQ

    Treesearch

    Andre Cyr; Jacques Larivee

    1993-01-01

    EPOQ (Studies of Bird Populations in Quebec) is a data base on birds of Quebec containing more than 2.2 million records of observations recorded on 158,000 checklists from 3,600 observation sites since 1950. Trends were measured for each of four subsets of EPOQ data between 1970 and 1989 (all year, spring (April-May), summer (June-July), and fall (August-October) as...

  8. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Carolyn B.; Meyer, Joseph S.; Francisco, Alex B.; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed

  9. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

    PubMed

    Meyer, Carolyn B; Meyer, Joseph S; Francisco, Alex B; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4-46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on

  10. Winter bird population studies and project prairie birds for surveying grassland birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Hamel, P.B.; Woodrey, M.S.

    2008-01-01

    We compared 2 survey methods for assessing winter bird communities in temperate grasslands: Winter Bird Population Study surveys are area-searches that have long been used in a variety of habitats whereas Project Prairie Bird surveys employ active-flushing techniques on strip-transects and are intended for use in grasslands. We used both methods to survey birds on 14 herbaceous reforested sites and 9 coastal pine savannas during winter and compared resultant estimates of species richness and relative abundance. These techniques did not yield similar estimates of avian populations. We found Winter Bird Population Studies consistently produced higher estimates of species richness, whereas Project Prairie Birds produced higher estimates of avian abundance for some species. When it is important to identify all species within the winter bird community, Winter Bird Population Studies should be the survey method of choice. If estimates of the abundance of relatively secretive grassland bird species are desired, the use of Project Prairie Birds protocols is warranted. However, we suggest that both survey techniques, as currently employed, are deficient and recommend distance- based survey methods that provide species-specific estimates of detection probabilities be incorporated into these survey methods.

  11. Killdeer population trends in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanzenbacher, Peter M.; Haig, Susan M.

    2001-01-01

    Killdeers (Charadrius vociferus) are considered a common species that inhabits a wide range of wetland and upland habitats throughout much of North America, yet recent information suggests that they may be declining regionally, if not throughout much of their range. To address this issue, we examined population trends of this species at multiple spatial and temporal scales using data from two major avian survey efforts, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Christmas Bird Count (CBC). A summary of BBS trends indicates significant long-term (1966a??1996) declines in breeding populations across North America. Geographic regions driving this decline were Canada, western survey regions of the continent, and select southeastern states. In contrast, over the same time period, Killdeer populations increased in some midwestern states, particularly those in the Great Lakes region. Recent BBS trends (1986a??1996) indicate highly significant declines across most areas of North America surveyed. Trends from CBC data (1959a??1988) indicate declines at a smaller spatial scale. While the ability of current major avian survey efforts to detect population trends for Killdeer and other shorebird species warrants further examination, significant negative trends in Killdeer populations indicates the need to further investigate the status of this species.

  12. Agricultural intensification and the collapse of Europe's farmland bird populations.

    PubMed Central

    Donal, P F; Gree, R E; Heath, M F

    2001-01-01

    The populations of farmland birds in Europe declined markedly during the last quarter of the 20th century, representing a severe threat to biodiversity. Here, we assess whether declines in the populations and ranges of farmland birds across Europe reflect differences in agricultural intensity, which arise largely through differences in political history. Population and range changes were modelled in terms of a number of indices of agricultural intensity. Population declines and range contractions were significantly greater in countries with more intensive agriculture, and significantly higher in the European Union (EU) than in former communist countries. Cereal yield alone explained over 30% of the variation in population trends. The results suggest that recent trends in agriculture have had deleterious and measurable effects on bird populations on a continental scale. We predict that the introduction of EU agricultural policies into former communist countries hoping to accede to the EU in the near future will result in significant declines in the important bird populations there. PMID:12123294

  13. [Population trends and poverty].

    PubMed

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  14. Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Gill, Jennifer A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jones, Victoria R; Franco, Aldina M A

    2016-03-01

    Declines in migratory species are a pressing concern worldwide, but the mechanisms underpinning these declines are not fully understood. We hypothesised that species with greater within-population variability in migratory movements and destinations, here termed 'migratory diversity', might be more resilient to environmental change. To test this, we related map-based metrics of migratory diversity to recent population trends for 340 European breeding birds. Species that occupy larger non-breeding ranges relative to breeding, a characteristic we term 'migratory dispersion', were less likely to be declining than those with more restricted non-breeding ranges. Species with partial migration strategies (i.e. overlapping breeding and non-breeding ranges) were also less likely to be declining than full migrants or full residents, an effect that was independent of migration distance. Recent rates of advancement in Europe-wide spring arrival date were greater for partial migrants than full migrants, suggesting that migratory diversity may also help facilitate species responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Bird Population, Book B, Explorations in Biology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mid-Continent Regional Educational Lab., Inc., Kansas City, MO.

    This booklet is part of a series that tests some skills biologists use in their investigations. Students are presented with several possible experiments to investigate one of the explanations for the changes in bird populations illustrated in Booklet A (SE 011 334). A separate series of data interpretation questions is presented for each…

  16. Monitoring wild bird populations for lead exposure

    SciTech Connect

    Scheuhammer, A.M. )

    1989-07-01

    Delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALA-d), an enzyme in the heme biosynthetic pathway is extremely sensitive to inhibition by lead (Pb). I evaluated the erythrocyte ALA-d activity ratio (the ratio between the fully restored enzyme activity and that measured without removing any inhibitory influence that might be present) as an indicator of Pb exposure in free-living birds. In the absence of elevated Pb exposure, birds, had comparable ALA-d activity ratios regardless of species, geographical location, or time of year sampled. The normal range of ratios for free-living species was similar to that for aviary-raised birds (1.0-1.3). Individuals with enzyme inhibition were readily identified. In blood collected from free-living mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), ALA-d activity ratios were better correlated with blood-Pb than were blood-protoporphyrin (PP) concentrations. At least 9.5% of mallards with blood-Pb>80 {mu}g/dL did not have elevated PP levels. Underestimation of Pb exposure did not occur using the ALA-d activity ratio method. The ALA-d activity ratio was as accurate as blood-Pb measurements for monitoring the relative degree of recent Pb exposure in the wild bird populations studied. Unlike blood-Pb analyses, ALA-d determinations do not require exposure in the wild bird populations studied. Unlike blood-Pb analyses, ALA-d determinations do not require exposure in the wild bird populations studied. Unlike blood-Pb analyses, ALA-d determinations do not require sophisticated and expensive instrumentation, and assays can be performed efficiently with minimal training.

  17. Delineating bird populations using ring recoveries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, G.W.; Sauer, J.R.; North, P.M.; Nichols, J.D.

    1995-01-01

    We delineate bird populations using cluster analysis to group ringing sites based on pairwise comparisons of recoveries. Clustering provides a quantitative (but non-unique) grouping that can be used to examine the relationships of bird distributions at both local and regional geographic scales. Clustering is based on similarity matrices composed of pairwise comparisons of recovery distributions from ringing sites. We demonstrate the method using mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) ring recoveries to group ringing sites in south-central Canada, and discuss the possibilities for these analyses for non-hunted species with few recoveries.

  18. Global fertility and population trends.

    PubMed

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends.

  19. Bird population and habitat surveys in urban areas

    Treesearch

    Richard M. DeGraaf; Aelred D. Geis; Patricia A. Healy

    1991-01-01

    Breeding bird populations in six habitats in Columbia. MD. were studied to develop procedures suitable for measuring bird use of residential areas and to identify habitat characteristics that define the distribution of various common bird species. A procedure to measure bird use based on 4-min transect counts on plots measuring 91 m × 91 m proved better than point...

  20. [Trends in population aging].

    PubMed

    Valkovics, E

    1990-11-01

    The age structure of the world population between 1950 and 1985 is analyzed according to changes in fertility, mortality, and international migration in developing and developed countries. "Relying on the results of the medium scenario of the population forecasts prepared by the U.N. Division of International Economic and Social Affairs, the author demonstrates that aging of the world population will become a global phenomenon, characteristic of every region and county of the world, between 1985 and 2025." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

  1. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  2. Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keitt, Timothy H.; Stanley, H. Eugene

    1998-05-01

    Population biologists have long been interested in the variability of natural populations. One approach to dealing with ecological complexity is to reduce the system to one or a few species, for which meaningful equations can be solved. Here we explore an alternative approach, by studying the statistical properties of a data set containing over 600 species, namely the North American breeding bird survey. The survey has recorded annual species abundances over a 31-year period along more than 3,000 observation routes. We now analyse the dynamics of population variability using this data set, and find scaling features in common with inanimate systems composed of strongly interacting subunits. Specifically, we find that the distribution of changes in population abundance over a one-year interval is remarkably symmetrical, with long tails extending over six orders of magnitude. The variance of the population over a time series increases as a power-law with increasing time lag, indicating long-range correlation in population size fluctuations. We also find that the distribution of species lifetimes (the time between colonization and local extinction) within local patches is a power-law with an exponential cutoff imposed by the finite length of the time series. Our results provide a quantitative basis for modelling the dynamics of large species assemblages.

  3. Power to detect trends in abundance of secretive marsh birds: effects of species traits and sampling effort

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steidl, Robert J.; Conway, Courtney J.; Litt, Andrea R.

    2013-01-01

    Standardized protocols for surveying secretive marsh birds have been implemented across North America, but the efficacy of surveys to detect population trends has not been evaluated. We used survey data collected from populations of marsh birds across North America and simulations to explore how characteristics of bird populations (proportion of survey stations occupied, abundance at occupied stations, and detection probability) and aspects of sampling effort (numbers of survey routes, stations/route, and surveys/station/year) affect statistical power to detect trends in abundance of marsh bird populations. In general, the proportion of survey stations along a route occupied by a species had a greater relative effect on power to detect trends than did the number of birds detected per survey at occupied stations. Uncertainty introduced by imperfect detection during surveys reduced power to detect trends considerably, but across the range of detection probabilities for most species of marsh birds, variation in detection probability had only a minor influence on power. For species that occupy a relatively high proportion of survey stations (0.20), have relatively high abundances at occupied stations (2.0 birds/station), and have high detection probability (0.50), ≥40 routes with 10 survey stations per route surveyed 3 times per year would provide an 80% chance of detecting a 3% annual decrease in abundance after 20 years of surveys. Under the same assumptions but for species that are less common, ≥100 routes would be needed to achieve the same power. Our results can help inform the design of programs to monitor trends in abundance of marsh bird populations, especially with regards to the amount of sampling effort necessary to meet programmatic goals.

  4. Population trends of migratory landbirds along the Middle Rio Grande

    Treesearch

    Wang Yong; Deborah M. Finch

    1997-01-01

    Using standardized mist-netting capture data from the Rio Grande Nature Center, Albuquerque, New Mexico from 1985-1994, and Breeding Bird Survey data from New Mexico and United States from 1980-1994, we compared local, regional, and national population trends of landbird species that migrate along the middle Rio Grande in fall. Evaluations of relationships among...

  5. Monitoring bird populations in small geographic areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dunn, Erica H.; Bart, J.; Collins, B.T.; Craig, B.; Dale, B.; Downes, C.M.; Francis, C.M.; Woodley, S.; Zorn, P.

    2006-01-01

    Numerous methods exist for monitoring bird populations, and there is a large literature describing them. There are few resources, however, that provide comprehensive advice on every step of organizing and carrying out a survey, from the early stages of planning to final use of the data. Even fewer resources are designed to meet the needs of a wide variety of potential users, from amateurs interested in change of bird life in a local study preserve to professionals testing hypotheses on the response of birds to habitat management, although much of the advice should be the same for every monitoring program. Whether survey objectives are very modest or rigorously scientific, samples must be sufficiently numerous and well distributed to provide meaningful results, and the survey should be well designed to ensure that the money and effort going into it are not wasted. This document is intended to be a complete resource for anyone planning to organize monitoring of noncolonial landbirds within a relatively small geographic area (e.g., from the size of a woodlot to a large park). The first of its two parts provides background explaining the importance of good study design and gives specific advice on all aspects of project planning and execution of high-quality data collection for the purpose of hypothesis testing. The second part is self-contained and nontechnical and describes complete plans for a site-specific checklist survey, suitable for addressing monitoring questions frequently asked by amateurs and for involvement of volunteers in data collection. Throughout are references to additional resources, from background literature to sources of existing survey protocols, analysis software, and tools for archiving data.

  6. Modeling trends from North American breeding bird survey data: a spatially explicit approach.

    PubMed

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John; Pardieck, Keith; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

  7. Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

  8. Temporal Trends in Metal Pollution: Using Bird Excrement as Indicator

    PubMed Central

    Berglund, Åsa M. M.; Rainio, Miia J.; Eeva, Tapio

    2015-01-01

    Past mining and smelting activities have resulted in metal polluted environments all over the world, but long-term monitoring data is often scarce, especially in higher trophic levels. In this study we used bird (Parus major and Ficedula hypoleuca) excrement to monitor metal pollution in the terrestrial environment following 16 years of continuously reduced emissions from a copper/nickel smelter in Finland. In the early 1990s, lead and cadmium concentrations dropped significantly in excrement, but the reduction did not directly reflect the changes in atmospheric emission from the smelter. This is likely due to a continuous contribution of metals also from the soil pool. We conclude that bird excrement can be used to assess changes in the environment as a whole but not specifically changes in atmospheric emission. Inter-annual variation in excrement concentration of especially copper and nickel demonstrates the importance of long-term monitoring to discern significant trends. PMID:25680108

  9. On smoothing trends in population index modeling.

    PubMed

    Mazzetta, Chiara; Brooks, Steve; Freeman, Stephen N

    2007-12-01

    In this article, we consider the U.K. Common Birds Census counts and their use in monitoring bird abundance. We use a state-space modeling approach within a Bayesian framework to describe population level trends over time and contribute to the alert system used by the British Trust for Ornithology. We account for potential overdispersion and excess zero counts by modeling the observation process with a zero-inflated negative binomial, while the system process is described by second-order polynomial growth models. In order to provide a biological motivation for the amount of smoothing applied to the observed series the system variance is related to the demographic characteristics of the species, so as to help the specification of its prior distribution. In particular, the available information on productivity and survival is used to formulate prior expectations on annual percentage changes in the population level and then used to constrain the variance of the system process. We discuss an example of how to interpret alternative choices for the degree of smoothing and how these relate to the classification of species, over time, into conservation lists.

  10. Monitoring birds of prey in Finland: a summary of methods, trends, and statistical power.

    PubMed

    Saurola, Pertti

    2008-09-01

    In Finland, Comprehensive Surveys to monitor numbers and productivity of four endangered species of birds of prey were started in the early 1970s. In 1982, the Ringing Center launched the Raptor Grid, a nationwide monitoring program for all other bird-of-prey species based on 10 x 10 km study plots of the Finnish National Grid. The annual total of study plots surveyed by voluntary raptor ringers has averaged 120. Since 1986, additional information on breeding performance has been collected using the Raptor Questionnaire. In 2006, more than 44 262 potential nest sites of birds of prey were inspected, and 12 963 occupied territories, including 8149 active nests, were found and reported by ringers. The population trend during 1982-2006 has been significantly negative in six species and positive or neutral in 18 species. Statistical power of the time series of numbers and productivity has been adequate for all species except the microtine specialists.

  11. Monitoring bird population trends in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.; Purroy, F.J.

    1983-01-01

    Se ofrece un nuevo metodo para computar las oscilaciones demograficas de las aves a lo largo de los anos. Con los datos suministrados por el proyecto 'Aves nidificantes en Norteamerica' , se indican en la Tabla 1 las pautas de cambio numerico de una serie seleccionada de aves holarticas.

  12. Effects of oil pollution on marine bird populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Piatt, John F.; Carter, Harry R.; Nettleship, David N.; White, Jan

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide oil pollution has killed millions of marine birds in this century but it has been difficult to directly link these losses to population declines. Estimated bird losses from acute spills and chronic pollution are not precise because we usually do not know the proportion of birds killed at sea that are detected on beach surveys or the origin of those birds. Data required to assess effects on populations (abundance, distribution, productivity, recruitment and mortality rates) are inadequate or absent for many species. Local populations may sometimes be devastated by oil pollution, but whether these losses are biologically significant to global populations, especially in light of natural or human-induced sources of mortality, is debatable. In this paper. We review the evidence for effects of oil on marine bird populations, discuss four case histories, and address the debate concerning short- and long-term effects on avian populations.

  13. Bird population density estimated from acoustic signals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dawson, D.K.; Efford, M.G.

    2009-01-01

    Many animal species are detected primarily by sound. Although songs, calls and other sounds are often used for population assessment, as in bird point counts and hydrophone surveys of cetaceans, there are few rigorous methods for estimating population density from acoustic data. 2. The problem has several parts - distinguishing individuals, adjusting for individuals that are missed, and adjusting for the area sampled. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) is a statistical methodology that addresses jointly the second and third parts of the problem. We have extended SECR to use uncalibrated information from acoustic signals on the distance to each source. 3. We applied this extension of SECR to data from an acoustic survey of ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla density in an eastern US deciduous forest with multiple four-microphone arrays. We modelled average power from spectrograms of ovenbird songs measured within a window of 0??7 s duration and frequencies between 4200 and 5200 Hz. 4. The resulting estimates of the density of singing males (0??19 ha -1 SE 0??03 ha-1) were consistent with estimates of the adult male population density from mist-netting (0??36 ha-1 SE 0??12 ha-1). The fitted model predicts sound attenuation of 0??11 dB m-1 (SE 0??01 dB m-1) in excess of losses from spherical spreading. 5.Synthesis and applications. Our method for estimating animal population density from acoustic signals fills a gap in the census methods available for visually cryptic but vocal taxa, including many species of bird and cetacean. The necessary equipment is simple and readily available; as few as two microphones may provide adequate estimates, given spatial replication. The method requires that individuals detected at the same place are acoustically distinguishable and all individuals vocalize during the recording interval, or that the per capita rate of vocalization is known. We believe these requirements can be met, with suitable field methods, for a significant

  14. North American Bird Banding and quantitative population ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Tautin, J.; Davis, William E.; Jackson, Jerome A.; Tautin, John

    2008-01-01

    Early bird-banding programs in North America were developed to provide descriptions of bird migration and movement patterns. This initial interest in description quickly evolved into more quantitative interests in two ways. There was (1) interest in quantifying migration and movement patterns, and (2) rapid recognition that re-observations of marked birds provided information about other parameters relevant to population dynamics. These included survival rate, recruitment rate, and population size. The evolution of methods for estimating population size, survival, recruitment, and movement is reviewed and we show it to be closely tied to bird-banding data. These estimation methods have been used with bird-banding data to draw important inferences about evolutionary ecology, population ecology, and population management. Illustrative examples of such inferences are provided.

  15. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  16. Combining Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data to evaluate seasonal components of population change in Northern Bobwhite

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

    2008-01-01

    Annual surveys of wildlife populations provide information about annual rates of change in populations but provide no information about when such changes occur. However, by combining data from 2 annual surveys, conducted in different parts of the year, seasonal components of population change can be estimated. We describe a hierarchical model for simultaneous analysis of 2 continent-scale monitoring programs. The Christmas Bird Count is an early winter survey, whereas the North American Breeding Bird Survey is conducted in June. Combining information from these surveys permits estimation of seasonal population variance components and improves estimation of long-term population trends. The composite analysis also controls for survey-specific sampling effects. We applied the model to estimation of population change in northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). Over the interval 1969?2004, bobwhite populations declined, with trend estimate of -3.56% per year (95% CI = [-3.80%, -3.32%]) in the surveyed portion of their range. Our analysis of seasonal population variance components indicated that northern bobwhite populations changed more in the winter and spring portion of the year than in the summer and fall portion of the year.

  17. Bird populations on the Island of Tinian: persistence despite wholesale loss of native forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Amidon, Frederick A.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.

    2012-01-01

    Bird habitat on the island of Tinian, Mariana Islands, has been substantially altered, and only around 5% of the island has native forest today. The modern bird fauna is likely to be a subset of the original avifauna where only species tolerant to native forest loss and human disturbance have survived. Avian surveys were conducted on the island in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current densities and abundances of the remaining species, and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. During the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 11 species. Five of the nine native species and one alien bird have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopusroseicapilla), Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), and Tinian Monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae)—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two birds (one native and one alien) were considered relatively stable. Only five birds, including the Tinian Monarch, showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Increased development on Tinian may result in increases in habitat clearing and expansion of human-dominated habitats, and declines in some bird populations would likely continue or be exacerbated with these actions. Expanded development activities on Tinian would also mean increased cargo movement between Guam and Tinian, elevating the probability of transporting the Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) to Tinian, which would lead to precipitous decreases and extinctions.

  18. ESTIMATING AVIAN POPULATION TRENDS USING A DETECTION-CORRECTED ABUNDANCE MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Paper presents a new model for controlling detection heterogeneity in temporally stratified bird counts. The method will allow researchers to control for variation in observer ability in large-scale studies of avian population trends.

  19. An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Gregory, Richard D.; Willis, Stephen G.; Jiguet, Frédéric; Voříšek, Petr; Klvaňová, Alena; van Strien, Arco; Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Couvet, Denis; Green, Rhys E.

    2009-01-01

    Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20th and late 21st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming. PMID:19259270

  20. Changes in breeding phenology and population size of birds.

    PubMed

    Dunn, Peter O; Møller, Anders P

    2014-05-01

    Although the phenology of numerous organisms has advanced significantly in response to recent climate change, the life-history and population consequences of earlier reproduction remain poorly understood. We analysed extensive data on temporal change in laying date and clutch size of birds from Europe and North America to test whether these changes were related to recent trends in population size. Across studies, laying date advanced significantly, while clutch size did not change. However, within populations, changes in laying date and clutch size were positively correlated, implying that species which advanced their laying date the most were also those that increased their clutch size the most. Greater advances in laying date were associated with species that had multiple broods per season, lived in nonagricultural habitats and were herbivorous or predatory. The duration of the breeding season increased for multibrooded species and decreased for single-brooded species. Changes in laying date and clutch size were not related to changes in population size (for resident or migratory species). This suggests that, across a wide variety of species, mismatches in the timing of egg laying or numbers of offspring have had relatively little influence on population size compared with other aspects of phenology and life history. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  1. Recommended methods for monitoring change in bird populations by counting and capture of migrants

    Treesearch

    David J. T. Hussell; C. John Ralph

    2005-01-01

    Counts and banding captures of spring or fall migrants can generate useful information on the status and trends of the source populations. To do so, the counts and captures must be taken and recorded in a standardized and consistent manner. We present recommendations for field methods for counting and capturing migrants at intensively operated sites, such as bird...

  2. Interannual variation and long-term trends in proportions of resident individuals in partially migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Kalle; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Hokkanen, Tatu; Rintala, Jukka; Piha, Markus; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2016-03-01

    Partial migration - a part of a population migrates and another part stays resident year-round on the breeding site - is probably the most common type of migration in the animal kingdom, yet it has only lately garnered more attention. Theoretical studies indicate that in partially migratory populations, the proportion of resident individuals (PoR) should increase in high latitudes in response to the warming climate, but empirical evidence exists for few species. We provide the first comprehensive overview of the environmental factors affecting PoR and the long-term trends in PoR by studying 27 common partially migratory bird species in Finland. The annual PoR values were calculated by dividing the winter bird abundance by the preceding breeding abundance. First, we analysed whether early-winter temperature, winter temperature year before or the abundance of tree seeds just before overwintering explains the interannual variation in PoR. Secondly, we analysed the trends in PoR between 1987 and 2011. Early-winter temperature explained the interannual variation in PoR in the waterbirds (waterfowl and gulls), most likely because the temperature affects the ice conditions and thereby the feeding opportunities for the waterbirds. In terrestrial species, the abundance of seeds was the best explanatory variable. Previous winter's temperature did not explain PoR in any species, and thus, we conclude that the variation in food availability caused the interannual variation in PoR. During the study period, PoR increased in waterbirds, but did not change in terrestrial birds. Partially migratory species living in physically contrasting habitats can differ in their annual and long-term population-level behavioural responses to warming climate, possibly because warm winter temperatures reduce ice cover and improve the feeding possibilities of waterbirds but do not directly regulate the food availability for terrestrial birds.

  3. Long-term trends in breeding birds in an old-growth Adirondack forest and the surrounding region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNulty, S.A.; Droege, S.; Masters, R.D.

    2008-01-01

    Breeding bird populations were sampled between 1954 and 1963, and 1990 and 2000 in an old-growth forest, the Natural Area of Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Trends were compared with data from regional North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and from a forest plot at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Trends for 22 species in the HWF Natural Area were negative, eight were positive, and one was zero; 20 were significant. Fifteen of 17 long-distance migrants declined, whereas 7 of 14 short-distance migrants and permanent residents declined. Most (74%) HWF Natural Area species, despite differences in sampling periods and local habitat features, matched in sign of trend when compared to Adirondack BBS routes, 61% matched northeastern BBS routes, and 71% matched eastern United States BBS routes, while 66% matched Hubbard Brook species. The agreement in population trends suggests that forest interior birds, especially long-distance migrants, are affected more by regional than local factors. The analysis indicated that bird trends generated from BBS routes may not be as biased toward roads as previously suggested.

  4. Combined analysis of roadside and off-road breeding bird survey data to assess population change in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Handel, Colleen M.; Sauer, John

    2017-01-01

    Management interest in North American birds has increasingly focused on species that breed in Alaska, USA, and Canada, where habitats are changing rapidly in response to climatic and anthropogenic factors. We used a series of hierarchical models to estimate rates of population change in 2 forested Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) in Alaska based on data from the roadside North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey, which samples off-road areas on public resource lands. We estimated long-term (1993–2015) population trends for 84 bird species from the BBS and short-term (2003–2015) trends for 31 species from both surveys. Among the 84 species with long-term estimates, 11 had positive trends and 17 had negative trends in 1 or both BCRs; negative trends were primarily found among aerial insectivores and wetland-associated species, confirming range-wide negative continental trends for many of these birds. Three species with negative trends in the contiguous United States and southern Canada had positive trends in Alaska, suggesting different population dynamics at the northern edges of their ranges. Regional population trends within Alaska differed for several species, particularly those represented by different subspecies in the 2 BCRs, which are separated by rugged, glaciated mountain ranges. Analysis of the roadside and off-road data in a joint hierarchical model with shared parameters resulted in improved precision of trend estimates and suggested a roadside-related difference in underlying population trends for several species, particularly within the Northwestern Interior Forest BCR. The combined analysis highlights the importance of considering population structure, physiographic barriers, and spatial heterogeneity in habitat change when assessing patterns of population change across a landscape as broad as Alaska. Combined analysis of roadside and off-road survey data in a hierarchical framework may be particularly

  5. Spatiotemporal variation in mechanisms driving regional-scale population dynamics of a Threatened grassland bird.

    PubMed

    Ethier, Danielle M; Koper, Nicola; Nudds, Thomas D

    2017-06-01

    To achieve national population targets for migratory birds, landscape-level conservation approaches are increasingly encouraged. However, knowledge of the mechanisms that drive spatiotemporal patterns in population dynamics are needed to inform scale-variant policy development. Using hierarchical Bayesian models and variable selection, we determined by which mechanism(s), and to what extent, changes in quantity and quality of surrogate grassland habitats contributed to regional variation in population trends of an obligatory grassland bird, Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorous). We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data to develop spatially explicit models of regional population trends over 25 years across 35 agricultural census divisions in Ontario, Canada. We measured the strength of evidence for effects of land-use change on population trends over the entire study period and over five subperiods. Over the entire study period, one region (Perth) displayed strong evidence of population decline (95% CI is entirely below 0); four regions displayed strong evidence of population increase (Bruce, Simcoe, Peterborough, and Northumberland). Population trends shifted spatially among subperiods, with more extreme declines later in time (1986-1990: 28% of 35 census divisions, 1991-1995: 46%, 1996-2000: 40%, 2001-2005: 66%, 2006-2010: 82%). Important predictors of spatial patterns in Bobolink population trends over the entire study period were human development and fragmentation. However, factors inferred to drive patterns in population trends were not consistent over space and time. This result underscores that effective threat identification (both spatially and temporally) and implementation of flexible, regionally tailored policies will be critical to realize efficient conservation of Bobolink and similar at-risk species.

  6. Hawaii Forest Bird Interagency Database Project: Collecting, Understanding, and Sharing Population Data on Hawaiian Forest Birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pratt, Thane K.; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Camp, Richard J.; Gorresen, P. Marcos

    2006-01-01

    The forest birds of the Hawaiian Islands are distinguished by the diversity of endemic forms derived from a small number of ancestral colonists. However, the avifauna has been decimated by human activities both before and after Western contact. At least 71 species or subspecies disappeared before the arrival of Capt. James Cook in 1778, and an additional 24 went extinct after 1778, of which 11 were lost since the 1960s alone. Many of the remaining Hawaiian bird populations are declining or are in danger of extinction. Vigorous efforts to survey and monitor bird populations over the past 3 decades have generated considerable information from which to assess the current status of the Hawaiian forest birds.

  7. Bird Population, Book A, Explorations in Biology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mid-Continent Regional Educational Lab., Inc., Kansas City, MO.

    The booklet is part of a series which tests some skills biologists use in their investigations. A series of diagrams of a biological community over a period of 10 years indicates an increasing bird mortality, and students are asked to choose a puzzling event that they would want to investigate if they were biologists. A scrambled programed text…

  8. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.; Greenberg, Russell; Marra, Peter P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  9. Assessing vulnerability of marine bird populations to offshore wind farms.

    PubMed

    Furness, Robert W; Wade, Helen M; Masden, Elizabeth A

    2013-04-15

    Offshore wind farms may affect bird populations through collision mortality and displacement. Given the pressures to develop offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to assess population-level impacts on protected marine birds. Here we refine an approach to assess aspects of their ecology that influence population vulnerability to wind farm impacts, also taking into account the conservation importance of each species. Flight height appears to be a key factor influencing collision mortality risk but improved data on flight heights of marine birds are needed. Collision index calculations identify populations of gulls, white-tailed eagles, northern gannets and skuas as of particularly high concern in Scottish waters. Displacement index calculations identify populations of divers and common scoters as most vulnerable to population-level impacts of displacement, but these are likely to be less evident than impacts of collision mortality. The collision and displacement indices developed here for Scottish marine bird populations could be applied to populations elsewhere, and this approach will help in identifying likely impacts of future offshore wind farms on marine birds and prioritising monitoring programmes, at least until data on macro-avoidance rates become available.

  10. Bird population and habitat surveys in urban areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeGraaf, R.M.; Geis, A.D.; Healy, P.A.

    1991-01-01

    Breeding bird populations in six habitats in Columbia. MD, were studied to develop procedures suitable for measuring bird use of residential areas and to identify habitat characteristics that define the distribution of various common bird species. A procedure to measure bird use based on 4-min transect counts on plots measuring 91 m ? 91 m proved better than point counts. Transect counts reduced many of the problems associated with counting birds in urban areas, such as varying noise and visibility. Eighty percent of observations were recorded in the first 4 min. Habitat measurement procedures were examined also. It was found that a subsample of woody tree and shrub crown volumes made on 0.2 ha was highly correlated with similar measures made on 0.8-ha plots.

  11. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, M.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds.

  12. Power to detect trend in short-term time series of bird abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thogmartin, W.E.; Gray, B.R.; Gallagher, M.; Young, N.; Rohweder, J.J.; Knutson, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    Avian point counts for population monitoring are often collected over a short timespan (e.g., 3-5 years). We examined whether power was adequate (power ???0.80) in short-duration studies to warrant the calculation of trend estimates. We modeled power to detect trends in abundance indices of eight bird species occurring across three floodplain habitats (wet prairie, early successional forest, and mature forest) as a function of trend magnitude, sample size, and species-specific sampling and among-year variance components. Point counts (5 min) were collected from 365 locations distributed among 10 study sites along the lower Missouri River; counts were collected over the period 2002 to 2004. For all study species, power appeared adequate to detect trends in studies of short duration (three years) at a single site when exponential declines were relatively large in magnitude (more than -5% year-1) and the sample of point counts per year was ???30. Efforts to monitor avian trends with point counts in small managed lands (i.e., refuges and parks) should recognize this sample size restriction by including point counts from offsite locations as a means of obtaining sufficient numbers of samples per strata. Trends of less than -5% year-1 are not likely to be consistently detected for most species over the short term, but short-term monitoring may still be useful as the basis for comparisons with future surveys. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2007.

  13. Measuring Global Trends in the Status of Biodiversity: Red List Indices for Birds

    PubMed Central

    Stattersfield, Alison J; Bennun, Leon A; Shutes, Sue M; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Baillie, Jonathan E. M; Stuart, Simon N; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Mace, Georgina M

    2004-01-01

    The rapid destruction of the planet's biodiversity has prompted the nations of the world to set a target of achieving a significant reduction in the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010. However, we do not yet have an adequate way of monitoring progress towards achieving this target. Here we present a method for producing indices based on the IUCN Red List to chart the overall threat status (projected relative extinction risk) of all the world's bird species from 1988 to 2004. Red List Indices (RLIs) are based on the number of species in each Red List category, and on the number changing categories between assessments as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration in status. The RLI for all bird species shows that their overall threat status has continued to deteriorate since 1988. Disaggregated indices show that deteriorations have occurred worldwide and in all major ecosystems, but with particularly steep declines in the indices for Indo-Malayan birds (driven by intensifying deforestation of the Sundaic lowlands) and for albatrosses and petrels (driven by incidental mortality in commercial longline fisheries). RLIs complement indicators based on species population trends and habitat extent for quantifying global trends in the status of biodiversity. Their main weaknesses are that the resolution of status changes is fairly coarse and that delays may occur before some status changes are detected. Their greatest strength is that they are based on information from nearly all species in a taxonomic group worldwide, rather than a potentially biased subset. At present, suitable data are only available for birds, but indices for other taxonomic groups are in development, as is a sampled index based on a stratified sample from all major taxonomic groups. PMID:15510230

  14. Measuring global trends in the status of biodiversity: red list indices for birds.

    PubMed

    Butchart, Stuart H M; Stattersfield, Alison J; Bennun, Leon A; Shutes, Sue M; Akçakaya, H Resit; Baillie, Jonathan E M; Stuart, Simon N; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Mace, Georgina M

    2004-12-01

    The rapid destruction of the planet's biodiversity has prompted the nations of the world to set a target of achieving a significant reduction in the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010. However, we do not yet have an adequate way of monitoring progress towards achieving this target. Here we present a method for producing indices based on the IUCN Red List to chart the overall threat status (projected relative extinction risk) of all the world's bird species from 1988 to 2004. Red List Indices (RLIs) are based on the number of species in each Red List category, and on the number changing categories between assessments as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration in status. The RLI for all bird species shows that their overall threat status has continued to deteriorate since 1988. Disaggregated indices show that deteriorations have occurred worldwide and in all major ecosystems, but with particularly steep declines in the indices for Indo-Malayan birds (driven by intensifying deforestation of the Sundaic lowlands) and for albatrosses and petrels (driven by incidental mortality in commercial longline fisheries). RLIs complement indicators based on species population trends and habitat extent for quantifying global trends in the status of biodiversity. Their main weaknesses are that the resolution of status changes is fairly coarse and that delays may occur before some status changes are detected. Their greatest strength is that they are based on information from nearly all species in a taxonomic group worldwide, rather than a potentially biased subset. At present, suitable data are only available for birds, but indices for other taxonomic groups are in development, as is a sampled index based on a stratified sample from all major taxonomic groups.

  15. Riparian Bird Population Monitoring in Utah, 1992-2001

    Treesearch

    Russell E. Norvell; Frank P. Howe; Jimmie R. Parrish

    2005-01-01

    We report statewide linear and non-linear trends in density from 1992 to 2001 for six common bird species in the riparian areas of Utah. The six species examined here represent over 24 percent of all observations in the period. Four of the six species showed linear declines (Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus], American Goldfinch [

  16. Recent population trends of the eastern bluebird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.

    1990-01-01

    North American Breeding Bird Survey data for the period 1966-1987 indicate that Eastern Bluebird (Sialia sialis) populations declined during the 1970s, primarily in association with either severe winters or severe spring storms. In recent years, bluebird populations have increased to levels similar to those observed during the first year (1966) of the survey. Survey results suggest that climate has an important role in affecting short-term population declines in bluebirds.

  17. Song Diversity Predicts the Viability of Fragmented Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Laiolo, Paola; Vögeli, Matthias; Serrano, David; Tella, José L.

    2008-01-01

    In the global scenario of increasing habitat fragmentation, finding appropriate indicators of population viability is a priority for conservation. We explored the potential of learned behaviours, specifically acoustic signals, to predict the persistence over time of fragmented bird populations. We found an association between male song diversity and the annual rate of population change, population productivity and population size, resulting in birds singing poor repertoires in populations more prone to extinction. This is the first demonstration that population viability can be predicted by a cultural trait (acquired via social learning). Our results emphasise that cultural attributes can reflect not only individual-level characteristics, but also the emergent population-level properties. This opens the way to the study of animal cultural diversity in the increasingly common human-altered landscapes. PMID:18350158

  18. Effect of forest fragmentation on bird populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    Many of the insectivorous songbird species that winter in the tropics are dependent on large unbroken tracts of forest during the breeding season. These species are disappearing from localities where forests are becoming fragmented. By long-range planning, managers can prevent local extinctions of these area-sensitive birds through use of such techniques as management in large units, retention of connecting corridors, and prevention of excessive isolation of forest fragments. Edge conditions can be provided, where appropriate to meet the needs of upland game species.

  19. Forest Management Under Uncertainty for Multiple Bird Population Objectives

    Treesearch

    Clinton T. Moore; W. Todd Plummer; Michael J. Conroy

    2005-01-01

    We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in...

  20. Do major roads reduce gene flow in urban bird populations?

    PubMed

    Zhang, Shuping; Suo, Mingli; Liu, Shenglin; Liang, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Although the negative effects of roads on the genetics of animal populations have been extensively reported, the question of whether roads reduce gene flow in volant, urban bird populations has so far not been addressed. In this study, we assess whether highways decreased gene flow and genetic variation in a small passerine bird, the tree sparrow (Passer montanus). We assessed genetic differences among tree sparrows (Passer montanus) sampled at 19 sites within Beijing Municipality, China, using 7 DNA microsatellites as genetic markers. AMOVA showed that genetic variation between sites, between urban and rural populations, and between opposite sides of the same highway, were very weak. Mantel tests on all samples, and on urban samples only, indicated that the age and number of highways, and the number of ordinary roads, were uncorrelated with genetic differences (F ST) among tree sparrows from different urban sites. Birds sampled at urban sites had similar levels of genetic diversity to those at rural sites. There was, however, evidence of some weak genetic structure between urban sites. Firstly, there were significant genetic differences (F ST) between birds from opposite sides of the same highway, but no significant F ST values between those from sites that were not separated by highways. Secondly, birds from eleven urban sites had loci that significantly deviated from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium but no such deviation was found in birds from rural sites. We cannot, therefore, conclusively reject the hypothesis that highways have no effect on the gene flow of tree sparrow populations. Furthermore, since the significance of these results may increase with time, we suggested that research on the influence of highways on gene flow in urban bird populations needs to be conducted over several decades.

  1. Do Major Roads Reduce Gene Flow in Urban Bird Populations?

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Shuping; Suo, Mingli; Liu, Shenglin; Liang, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Background Although the negative effects of roads on the genetics of animal populations have been extensively reported, the question of whether roads reduce gene flow in volant, urban bird populations has so far not been addressed. In this study, we assess whether highways decreased gene flow and genetic variation in a small passerine bird, the tree sparrow (Passer montanus). Methodology We assessed genetic differences among tree sparrows (Passer montanus) sampled at 19 sites within Beijing Municipality, China, using 7 DNA microsatellites as genetic markers. Results AMOVA showed that genetic variation between sites, between urban and rural populations, and between opposite sides of the same highway, were very weak. Mantel tests on all samples, and on urban samples only, indicated that the age and number of highways, and the number of ordinary roads, were uncorrelated with genetic differences (FST) among tree sparrows from different urban sites. Birds sampled at urban sites had similar levels of genetic diversity to those at rural sites. There was, however, evidence of some weak genetic structure between urban sites. Firstly, there were significant genetic differences (FST) between birds from opposite sides of the same highway, but no significant FST values between those from sites that were not separated by highways. Secondly, birds from eleven urban sites had loci that significantly deviated from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium but no such deviation was found in birds from rural sites. Conclusion We cannot, therefore, conclusively reject the hypothesis that highways have no effect on the gene flow of tree sparrow populations. Furthermore, since the significance of these results may increase with time, we suggested that research on the influence of highways on gene flow in urban bird populations needs to be conducted over several decades. PMID:24204724

  2. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining.

    PubMed

    Møller, Anders Pape; Rubolini, Diego; Lehikoinen, Esa

    2008-10-21

    Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. However, some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding sufficiently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occurrence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched compared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatch may be characterized by declining populations. Here we relate changes in spring migration timing by 100 European bird species since 1960, considered as an index of the phenological response of bird species to recent climate change, to their population trends. Species that declined in the period 1990-2000 did not advance their spring migration, whereas those with stable or increasing populations advanced their migration considerably. On the other hand, population trends during 1970-1990 were predicted by breeding habitat type, northernmost breeding latitude, and winter range (with species of agricultural habitat, breeding at northern latitudes, and wintering in Africa showing an unfavorable conservation status), but not by change in migration timing. The association between population trend in 1990-2000 and change in migration phenology was not confounded by any of the previously identified predictors of population trends in birds, or by similarity in phenotype among taxa due to common descent. Our findings imply that ecological factors affecting population trends can change over time and suggest that ongoing climatic changes will increasingly threaten vulnerable migratory bird species, augmenting their extinction risk.

  3. The impact of hunting on tropical mammal and bird populations.

    PubMed

    Benítez-López, A; Alkemade, R; Schipper, A M; Ingram, D J; Verweij, P A; Eikelboom, J A J; Huijbregts, M A J

    2017-04-14

    Hunting is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but a systematic large-scale estimate of hunting-induced defaunation is lacking. We synthesized 176 studies to quantify hunting-induced declines of mammal and bird populations across the tropics. Bird and mammal abundances declined by 58% (25 to 76%) and by 83% (72 to 90%) in hunted compared with unhunted areas. Bird and mammal populations were depleted within 7 and 40 kilometers from hunters' access points (roads and settlements). Additionally, hunting pressure was higher in areas with better accessibility to major towns where wild meat could be traded. Mammal population densities were lower outside protected areas, particularly because of commercial hunting. Strategies to sustainably manage wild meat hunting in both protected and unprotected tropical ecosystems are urgently needed to avoid further defaunation. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Population Trends and the Status of Population Policy in Africa.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogge, John R.

    1982-01-01

    The major trend towards worldwide easing of the birthrate does not include the current population patterns in Africa. The population policies of African nations range along a continuum from totally pronatal to strongly antinatal. However, even antinatal policies have had little effect on the overall spiralling upward population trend. (JA)

  5. Seasonal distribution of bird populations at the Patuxent Research Refuge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, R.E.; Cope, J.B.; Robbins, C.S.; Brainerd, J.W.

    2000-01-01

    A detailed study of seasonal changes in bird populationswas made at the Patuxent Research Refuge, located between Bowie and Laurel, Maryland during the years 1936-1949. The history of the Refuge is reviewed and its physical and biological characteristlcs summarized.. The methods of study used during the investigation mcluded: periodic censuses of a representative 304-acre study area over a two-year period; a census of the breeding population of the entire. Refuge during one year; detailed population studies of representative habitats during the breeding season; censuses of the wintering population of. the entire Refuge during two years; general surveys of wintering populations for seven years; and general observations of seasonal changes in bird populatlons over a fourteen-year period, including data from an extensive banding program and from many special types of censuses. The phenology of the Refuge is described in conslderable detail throughout the year, with special attention given to major fluctuatIons in bIrd populations as correlated with climatic changes and with seasonal aspectlon. of the vegetation. The component specIes of birds m the more important migration waves are listed. Figures approximating the Refuge breeding and wmtering populations are given, while indices representing the relative abundance of bird populations, based on figures from the two-year seasonal populatlon study, were obtained for the entire year. The greatest variety of species as well as the greatest number of individuals occurred on the Refuge during the migration .periods in spring and fall, the variety of species being slightly higher in spring than in fa!l, while the population of individuals was considerably higher in fall. Wmtering and breeding populations were low and relatively stable compared to the populations at other seasons.The ecological affinities of the bird populations differed greatly from one season to another. Species characteristic of edge habitats were much

  6. Monitoring bird populations: the role of bird observatories and nongovernmental organizations

    Treesearch

    Geoffrey R. Geupel; Nadav Nur

    1993-01-01

    Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) currently participating in Partners in Flight have been monitoring bird populations in North America for decades. These regional organization have strong grass roots and private sector support and are able to conduct truly long term studies by using nontraditional funding sources and staffing with dedicated volunteers and personnel...

  7. Overview of national bird population monitoring programs and databases

    Treesearch

    Gregory S. Butcher; Bruce Peterjohn; C. John Ralph

    1993-01-01

    A number of programs have been set up to monitor populations of nongame migratory birds. We review these programs and their purposes and provide information on obtaining data or results from these programs. In addition, we review recommendations for improving these programs.

  8. Population ecology, habitat requirements, and conservation of neotropical migratory birds

    Treesearch

    Deborah M. Finch

    1991-01-01

    This report was prepared in support of the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation's Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Program and the USDA Forest Service's role in the program. Recent analyses of data on forest-dwelling species, many of which are neotropical migrants, show population declines in many North American areas. The literature review summarizes...

  9. Methods for measuring populations of small, diurnal forest birds.

    Treesearch

    D.A. Manuwal; A.B. Carey

    1991-01-01

    Before a bird population is measured, the objectives of the study should be clearly defined. Important factors to be considered in designing a study are study site selection, plot size or transect length, distance between sampling points, duration of counts, and frequency and timing of sampling. Qualified field personnel are especially important. Assumptions applying...

  10. Temporal variation in population size of European bird species: effects of latitude and marginality of distribution.

    PubMed

    Cuervo, José J; Møller, Anders P

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction.

  11. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

    PubMed Central

    Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations. PMID:27582180

  12. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations.

  13. Agricultural landscapes: Can they support healthy bird populations as well as farm products?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.

    2003-01-01

    At the beginning of the twentieth century, prospects for bird populations occupying farmlands were promising. Agricultural expansion and the resulting deforestation produced wholesale changes to the landscape of eastern North America (Trautman 1977, Zeranski and Baptist 1990, Nicholson 1997). Regional avifaunas were transformed as Horned Larks (Eremophila alpestris), Dickcissels (Spiza americana), and other farmland birds undertook range expansions (Hurley and Franks 1976, Askins 1999). Those farmland birds became conspicuous, frequently in numbers that are hard to imagine today (Trautman 1940).One hundred years later, many of those once plentiful species experienced dramatic population declines (Askins 1993, Peterjohn and Sauer 1999). Those trends were evident for many decades, although pre-1965 trends were largely based on anecdotal accounts and were frequently attributed to changing regional landscapes due to urban expansion, farm abandonment resulting in increased forest cover, and the more intensive use of remaining agricultural fields (Trautman 1940, Herkert 1991, Askins 2000). However, numerous specific factors were implicated in local declines of individual species (Kantrud 1981, Bollinger et al. 1990, Lymn and Temple 1991, Bowen and Kruse 1993, Herkert 1994, Houston and Schmutz 1999, Blackwell and Dolbeer 2001).Understanding factors responsible for population changes can be approached at various geographic scales. Local studies identify specific factors influencing small populations, but the applicability of those results across broad geographic areas is often uncertain. Studies conducted at large geographic scales identify broad patterns of change, but those patterns frequently involve interrelated factors that may be only loosely related to the actual causes of population change. However, correlations between broad patterns of changes in bird populations and land-use characteristics provide a basis for directing future studies conducted at smaller

  14. Using Christmas Bird Count data in analysis of population change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

    2002-01-01

    The scientific credibility of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) results depend on the development and implementation of appropriate methods of statistical analysis. The key to any successful analysis of CBC data is to begin with a careful review of how the limitations of the data are likely to influence the results of the analysis, then to choose methods of analysis that accommodate as much as possible the limitations of the survey. For our analyses of CBC data, we develop a flexible model for effort adjustment and use information from the data to guide the selection of the best model. We include geographic structuring to accommodate the regional variation in number of samples, use a model that allows for overdispersed poisson data appropriate for counts, and employ empirical Bayes procedures to accommodate differences in quality of information in regional summaries. This generalized linear model approach is very flexible, and can be applied to a variety of studies focused on factors influencing wintering bird populations. In particular, the model can be easily modified to contain covariates, allowing for assessment of associations between CBC counts and winter weather, disturbance, and a variety of other environmental factors. These new survey analysis methods have added value in that they provide insights into changes in survey design that can enhance the value of the information. The CBC has been extremely successful as a tool for increasing public interest in birding and bird conservation. Use of the information for bird conservation creates new demands on quality of information, and it is important to maintain a dialogue between users of the information, information needs for the analyses, and survey coordinators and participants. Our work as survey analysts emphasizes the value and limitations of existing data, and provides some indications of what features of the survey could be modified to make the survey a more reliable source of bird population data. Surveys

  15. Climate Change Influences on Antarctic Bird Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korczak-Abshire, Małgorzata

    2010-01-01

    Rapid changes in the major environmental variables like: temperature, wind and precipitation have occurred in the Antarctic region during the last 50 years. In this very sensitive region, even small changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Then the climate change poses a new challenge to the survival of Antarctic wildlife. As important bioindicators of changes in the ecosystem seabirds and their response to the climate perturbations have been recorded. Atmospheric warming and consequent changes in sea ice conditions have been hypothesized to differentially affect predator populations due to different predator life-history strategies and substantially altered krill recruitment dynamics.

  16. Geographic patterns in population trends of neotropical migrants in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.; Hagan, John M.; Johnston, D.W.

    1992-01-01

    We use the route-regression method to estimate the population trends of 100 species of Neotropical migrants using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). We examine long-term (1966-1988) and recent (1978-1988) trends. In the long-term, more species of Neotropical migrants were increasing than were decreasing in the eastern and western parts of the continent, but recent trends indicate that more species decreased than increased in their population index in the east. Recent population declines in the eastern part of the continent were primarily associated with bird species that breed in forested habitat. No association was detected between changes in forest acreages by state and population trends of Neotropical migrants in the United States and Canada.

  17. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  18. Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

  19. Studying disability trends in aging populations.

    PubMed

    Gu, Danan; Gomez-Redondo, Rosa; Dupre, Matthew E

    2015-03-01

    This article reviews the current literature on disability trends in aging populations and proposes a framework for studying disability trends built upon existing models of disablement. In addition to considering disablement and its associated factors, our framework also includes factors at population level and the interplays among personal resources and health behaviors, intervention programs, technological advances, and the consequences of disability trends in the context of life course and socio-ecological perspective. The framework is abbreviated FE-BRIT-SE to denote individual-level (F)ixed attributes, including genetic factors, personality, age, sex, and earlier life conditions, and the (E)nvironment; individual (B)ehaviors, (R)esources, (I)nterventions, (T)echnology; and (S)ocioeconomic and (E)cological consequences of disability trends. The overview offers an integrated framework for understanding the disablement process, trends and their complex milieu of causes and consequences.

  20. Demographic routes to variability and regulation in bird populations

    PubMed Central

    Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Coulson, Tim; Grant, Peter R.; Visser, Marcel E.; Brommer, Jon E.; Rosemary Grant, B.; Gustafsson, Lars; Hatchwell, Ben J.; Jerstad, Kurt; Karell, Patrik; Pietiäinen, Hannu; Roulin, Alexandre; Røstad, Ole W.; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2016-01-01

    There is large interspecific variation in the magnitude of population fluctuations, even among closely related species. The factors generating this variation are not well understood, primarily because of the challenges of separating the relative impact of variation in population size from fluctuations in the environment. Here, we show using demographic data from 13 bird populations that magnitudes of fluctuations in population size are mainly driven by stochastic fluctuations in the environment. Regulation towards an equilibrium population size occurs through density-dependent mortality. At small population sizes, population dynamics are primarily driven by environment-driven variation in recruitment, whereas close to the carrying capacity K, variation in population growth is more strongly influenced by density-dependent mortality of both juveniles and adults. Our results provide evidence for the hypothesis proposed by Lack that population fluctuations in birds arise from temporal variation in the difference between density-independent recruitment and density-dependent mortality during the non-breeding season. PMID:27328710

  1. Loss of sagebrush ecosystems and declining bird populations in the Intermountain West: Priority research issues and information needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2002-01-01

    Sagebrush lands in the Intermountain West are declining rapidly in quality and extent. Consequently, populations of many bird species dependent on these ecosystems also are declining. The greater sage-grouse has been petitioned for listing as a threatened and endangered species, and other species of sagebrush-obligate birds have special conservation status in most states. We identified the primary issues and information needs during a multi-agency workshop, conducted in response to concerns by management agencies related to declining bird population trends in sagebrush habitats. Priority needs were to (1) obtain a better understanding of bird response to habitat and landscape features, (2) develop monitoring designs to sample habitats and bird populations, (3) determine the effects of land use on sagebrush habitats and dependent bird species, and (4) identify linkages between breeding and wintering ranges. This agenda will identify causes and mechanisms of population declines in birds dependent on sagebrush ecosystems and will lead to better management of the ecosystems upon which they depend.

  2. Forest Bird Distribution, Density and Trends in the Ka'u Region of Hawai'i Island

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.

    2007-01-01

    An accurate and current measure of population status and trend is necessary for conservation and management efforts. Scott and Kepler (1985) provided a comprehensive review of the status of native Hawaiian birds based on the extensive Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (HFBS) of the main islands (Scott et al. 1986). At that time, they documented declining populations and decreasing ranges for most species, and the extinction of several species over the previous 50 years. Many native bird species continue to decline throughout Hawai`i (Camp et al. In review, Gorresen et al. In prep.). The focus of this study is the mid-to-high elevation rainforest on the southeast windward slopes of Mauna Loa Volcano (Figure 1). Known as Ka`u, the region encompasses forest lands protected by Kamehameha Schools, The Nature Conservancy, Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HVNP), and the State of Hawai'i's Ka`u Forest Reserve, Kapapala Forest Reserve and Kapapala Cooperative Game Management Area,. Together these lands support one of three main concentrations of native forest birds on the Hawai`i Island (the other two being centered on the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge and Kulani-Keauhou area in the north and central windward part of the island, respectively.) Because this region harbors important populations of native and endangered forest birds in some of the best remaining forest habitat on the island, it has been a focus of forest bird surveys since the 1970s. The Ka`u region was first quantitatively surveyed in 1976 by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986). Surveys were conducted by State of Hawai`i Division of Forestry and Wildlife in 1993 and 2002 and by the U.S. National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey in 2004 and 2005. In this report, we present analyses of the density, distribution and trends of native and introduced forest bird within the Ka`u region of Hawai`i Island. The analyses cover only those species with sufficient detections to model detection

  3. Population trends and management opportunities for neotropical migrants

    Treesearch

    Chandler S. Robbins; John. R. Sauer; Bruce G. Peterjohn

    1993-01-01

    The Breeding Bird Survey shows that certain Neotropical migrant songbird populations have been declining over the past 26 years. Among them are forest birds that require extensive forest on the breeding grounds and also forested habitats on tropical wintering grounds. Other species have shown significant declines only since the early 1980's. Birds with broader...

  4. Forest management under uncertainty for multiple bird population objectives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, C.T.; Plummer, W.T.; Conroy, M.J.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in a set of alternative models. The models generate testable predictions about the response of populations to management, and monitoring data provide the basis for assessing these predictions and informing future management decisions. To illustrate these principles, we examine forest management at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, where management attention is focused on the recovery of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population. However, managers are also sensitive to the habitat needs of many non-target organisms, including Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and other forest interior Neotropical migratory birds. By simulating several management policies on a set of-alternative forest and bird models, we found a decision policy that maximized a composite response by woodpeckers and Wood Thrushes despite our complete uncertainty regarding system behavior. Furthermore, we used monitoring data to update our measure of belief in each alternative model following one cycle of forest management. This reduction of uncertainty translates into a reallocation of model influence on the choice of optimal decision action at the next decision opportunity.

  5. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemyslaw; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P.B.; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G.; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; Van Strien, Arco; van Turnhout, Chris A.M.; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

  6. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    PubMed

    Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

  7. Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

    1992-01-01

    Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

  8. The Soviet Union: Population Trends and Dilemmas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feshbach, Murray

    1982-01-01

    Recent trends and differentials among the Soviet Union's 15 republics and major nationalities are reviewed, focusing on fertility, mortality and urbanization, the prospect for labor supplies and military manpower, emigration, and projected population growth to 2000. Estimated at 270 million as of mid-1982, the Soviet population is currently…

  9. Status and trends of the land bird avifauna on Tinian and Aguiguan, Mariana Islands.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Amidon, Fred; Marshall, Ann P.; Kremer, Shelly; Laut, Megan

    2012-01-01

    Avian surveys were conducted on the islands of Tinian and Aguiguan, Marianas Islands, in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current baseline densities and abundances and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. On Tinian, during the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 12 species. Half of the 10 native species—Yellow Bittern (Ixobrychus sinensis), White-throated Ground-Dove (Gallicolumba xanthonura), Collared Kingfisher (Todiramphus chloris), Rufous Fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), and Micronesian Starling (Aplonis opaca)—and one alien bird—Island Collared-Dove (Streptopelia bitorquata)—have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopus roseicapilla), Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), and Tinian Monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae)—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two native birds—White Tern (Gygis alba) and Bridled White-eye (Zosterops saypani)—and one alien bird—Eurasian Tree Sparrow (Passer montanus)—were considered relatively stable. Only five birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Tinian Monarch, Rufous Fantail, and Bridled White-eye—showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Tinian Monarch was found in all habitat types, with the greatest monarch densities observed in limestone forest, secondary forest, and tangantangan (Leucaena leucocephala) thicket and the smallest densities found in open fields and urban/residential habitats. On Aguiguan, 19 species were detected on one or both of the surveys (1982 and 2008), and abundance estimates were produced for nine native and one alien species. Densities for seven of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Collared Kingfisher, Rufous Fantail, Bridled White-eye, Golden White-eye (Cleptornis marchei), and Micronesian Starling—and the alien bird— Island

  10. Forest bird and fruit bat populations on Sarigan, Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fancy, Steven G.; Craig, Robert J.; Kessler, Curt T.

    1999-01-01

    We conducted the first quantitative surveys of forest bird and bat populations on the uninhabited island of Sarigan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Severe habitat degradation has occurred on Sarigan because of overgrazing by introduced goats and pigs. Planting of coconut palms (Cocos nucifera) for copra production has also eliminated much of the island’s native forest. We recorded five species of forest birds on Sarigan: Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse laperouse), Micronesian Starling (Aplonis opaca), Collared Kingfisher (Halcyon chloris), and White-throated Ground Dove (Gallicolumba xanthonura). Estimated population sizes (95% confidence interval) in 1997 were 1,821 (1,617–2,026) for Micronesian Honeyeater, 677 (545–810) for Micronesian Megapode, 497 (319–675) for Micronesian Starling, 107 (82–131) for Collared Kingfisher, and 170 (101–238) for Mariana Fruit Bat (Pteropus mariannus).

  11. Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Weimerskirch, Henri; Lillegård, Magnar; Altwegg, Res; Becker, Peter H; Bregnballe, Thomas; Brommer, Jon E; McCleery, Robin H; Merilä, Juha; Nyholm, Erik; Rendell, Wallace; Robertson, Raleigh R; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Visser, Marcel E

    2005-07-07

    Theoretical studies have shown that variation in density regulation strongly influences population dynamics, yet our understanding of factors influencing the strength of density dependence in natural populations still is limited. Consequently, few general hypotheses have been advanced to explain the large differences between species in the magnitude of population fluctuations. One reason for this is that the detection of density regulation in population time series is complicated by time lags induced by the life history of species that make it difficult to separate the relative contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to the population dynamics. Here we use population time series for 23 bird species to estimate parameters of a stochastic density-dependent age-structured model. We show that both the strength of total density dependence in the life history and the magnitude of environmental stochasticity, including transient fluctuations in age structure, increase with generation time. These results indicate that the relationships between demographic and life-history traits in birds translate into distinct population dynamical patterns that are apparent only on a scale of generations.

  12. Population trends of Alaskan seabirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.

    1993-01-01

    Ornithology in Alaska formally began with the observations of Georg Wilhelm Steller during Vitus Bering's voyage of discovery in 1741. Steller's journal makes brief mention of various seabird species he encountered during his travels in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands (Frost and Engel 1988). For more than 100 years following Steller, the Russian-American Company was active in commercial fur harvesting throughout southern coastal Alaska, but this period saw little contribution to a scientific understanding of the region's avifauna. With the purchase of Alaska by the United States in 1867, a period of American exploration began that included significant work by pioneering naturalists such as Dall (1873, 1874), Elliot (1881), Nelson (1883), and Turner (1885, 1886). While this activity established a comprehensive list and general knowledge of the distribution of seabird species occurring in Alaska, early observers provided no quantitative estimates of abundance for any colony or region.The observations of Heath (1915) and Willett (1912, 1915, 1917) at two locations in southeastern Alaska are notable for including the first numerical estimates of any seabird populations for comparison with recent data. Willett's (1912, 1915) estimates of 13 species are given in Table 1 with results from a 1976 Survey at Forrester Island (DeGange et al. 1977) and a 1981 survey at St. Lazaria Island (Nelson et al 1982). In the aggregate, seabird numbers appeared to increase dramatically at both sites, but the differences may be largely artificial. Because Willett (1915) did not employ rigorous sampling methods, DeGange et al. (1977) surmised that he grossly underestimated the populations of burrowing species such as storm-petrels, Cassin's Auklets. and Rhinoceros Aulkets. Nelson et al. (1982) offered a similar interpretation of total storm-petrel numbers at St. Lazaria, but felt that a shift in the species ratio of Leach's and Fork-tailed Storm-Petrels had likely occurred. It

  13. Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

    2000-01-01

    The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

  14. Heroin users in Australia: population trends.

    PubMed

    Kaya, C Yalçin; Tugai, Yuliya; Filar, Jerzy A; Agrawal, Manju R; Ali, Robert L; Gowing, Linda R; Cooke, Richard

    2004-03-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify certain important population trends among heroin users in Australia for the period 1971 - 97, such as: population growth, initiation, i.e. the number who were initiated to heroin in a given year, and quitting, i.e. the number that quit using heroin. For this purpose, we summarize and extract relevant characteristics from data from National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS 1998) conducted in Australia in 1998. We devise a systematic procedure to estimate historical trends from questions concerning past events. It is observed from our findings that the size of the heroin user population in Australia is in a sharp increase, especially from the early 1980s onwards. The general trend obtained for the period 1971 - 97 is strikingly similar to that obtained by Hall et al. (2000) for the dependent heroin user population in Australia, even though their study was based on different datasets and a different methodology. In our reconstruction of the time history we also detect a levelling-off prior to 1990. Initiation is also observed to be on a sharp increase. The latter trend is accompanied by a similar trend of quitting, perhaps indicating a relatively short heroin use career. A sharp decrease in both initiation and quitting is observed after 1990. In conclusion, in the case of the trend in the population of heroin users a high rate of growth has been identified that is consistent with the existing literature. In the process, we demonstrated that even a static survey such as NDSHS 1998 can, sometimes, be used to extract historical (dynamic) trends of certain important variables.

  15. Effects of restoring oak savannas on bird communities and populations.

    PubMed

    Brawn, Jeffrey D

    2006-04-01

    Efforts to restore and maintain oak savannas in North America, with emphasis on the use of prescribed fire, have become common. Little is known, however about how restoration affects animal populations, especially those of birds. I compared the breeding densities, community structure, and reproductive success of birds in oak savannas maintained by prescribed fire (12 sites) with those in closed-canopy forests (13 sites). All sampling was conducted in Illinois (U.S.A.). Of the 31 bird species analyzed, 12 were more common in savannas, 14 were not affected by habitat structure, and 5 were more common in forest habitat. The species favored by disturbance and restoration included Northern Bobwhites (Colinus virginianus), Mourning Doves (Zenaida macroura), Red-headed Woodpeckers (Melanerpes erythrocephalus), Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea), and Baltimore Orioles (Icterus galbula). Those more common in closed-canopy forest included Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) and Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina). Few species were unique to one type of habitat, but overall avian community structure in oak savannas and closed-canopy forests was generally distinctive. Estimates of nesting success (derived from 785 nests) revealed that 6 of the 13 species considered experienced greater productivity in the savanna habitat. Rates of brood parasitism were unaffected by restoration and habitat structure. Within savannas, tract size had little effect on breeding abundances and reproductive success. My results illustrate that restoration techniques can significantly affect the ecology of constituent animal populations and communities and have key implications regarding avian conservation and the management of forest habitat in fragmented landscapes. Small patches of forest habitat that regularly function as population sinks may offer far better prospects for birds if they are subjected to disturbance and ecosystem restoration.

  16. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    PubMed

    Magera, Anna M; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B; Lotze, Heike K

    2013-01-01

    Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of

  17. Recovery Trends in Marine Mammal Populations

    PubMed Central

    Magera, Anna M.; Mills Flemming, Joanna E.; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B.; Lotze, Heike K.

    2013-01-01

    Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased

  18. Behaviour-related DRD4 polymorphisms in invasive bird populations.

    PubMed

    Mueller, J C; Edelaar, P; Carrete, M; Serrano, D; Potti, J; Blas, J; Dingemanse, N J; Kempenaers, B; Tella, J L

    2014-06-01

    It has been suggested that individual behavioural traits influence the potential to successfully colonize new areas. Identifying the genetic basis of behavioural variation in invasive species thus represents an important step towards understanding the evolutionary potential of the invader. Here, we sequenced a candidate region for neophilic/neophobic and activity behaviour - the complete exon 3 of the DRD4 gene - in 100 Yellow-crowned bishops (Euplectes afer) from two invasive populations in Spain and Portugal. The same birds were scored twice for activity behaviour while exposed to novel objects (battery or slice of apple) in captivity. Response to novel objects was repeatable (r = 0.41) within individuals. We identified two synonymous DRD4 SNPs that explained on average between 11% and 15% of the phenotypic variance in both populations, indicating a clear genetic component to the neophilic/neophobic/activity personality axis in this species. This consistently high estimated effect size was mainly due to the repeated measurement design, which excludes part of the within-individual nongenetic variance in the response to different novel objects. We suggest that the alternative alleles of these SNPs are likely introduced from the original population and maintained by weak or antagonistic selection during different stages of the invasion process. The identified genetic variants have not only the potential to serve as genetic markers of the neophobic/neophilic/activity personality axis, but may also help to understand the evolution of behaviour in these invasive bird populations.

  19. Education, Population Trends and Technological Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, Mary Jean

    1985-01-01

    Focuses on three sets of generalized interrelationships among population growth, technological change, and education: human resources and technological change; parental education, child services, and demographic transition; and relationships affecting household health and contraception. Outlines current demographic trends and predicts effects of…

  20. Spatial synchronization of vole population dynamics by predatory birds.

    PubMed

    Ims, R A; Andreassen, H P

    2000-11-09

    Northern vole populations exhibit large-scale, spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such cases of population synchrony provide excellent opportunities for distinguishing between local intrinsic and regional extrinsic mechanisms of population regulation. Analyses of large-scale survey data and theoretical modelling have indicated several plausible synchronizing mechanisms. It is difficult, however, to determine the most important one without detailed data on local demographic processes. Here we combine results from two field studies in southeastern Norway--one identifies local demographic mechanisms and landscape-level annual synchrony among 28 enclosed experimental populations and the other examines region-level multi-annual synchrony in open natural populations. Despite fences eliminating predatory mammals and vole dispersal, the growth rates of the experimental populations were synchronized and moreover, perfectly linked with vole abundance in the region. The fates of 481 radio-marked voles showed that bird predation was the synchronizing mechanism. A higher frequency of risky dispersal movements in slowly growing populations appeared to accelerate predation rate. Thus, dispersal may induce a feedback-loop between predation and population growth that enhances synchrony.

  1. Recent developments in population trends and policies.

    PubMed

    1987-01-01

    A review of recent trends in world population growth indicates that growth rate continues to decelerate. However, there are marked differences in the pattern among regions and among individual countries. Furthermore, it is expected that the annual increments will increase for some time. There are and will continue to be differential growth rates among various age/sex groups with rapid increases in the working-age population and women of child-bearing age. There will also be an increase in the number and proportion of elderly persons. Though the declining population growth rate is largely due to fertility trends, there remains a substantial unmet need for family planning in developing countries. Furtheremore, desired family size is likely to fall as more women find employment in modern occupations. While fertility has been declining, so also has mortality, though there is a great variation in levels and trends among regions and individual countries. Many developing countries are experiencing rates of urban growth that greatly exceed the overall growth rates of their populations. Though that growth is increasingly concentrated in the largest cities, it is but 1 aspect of a complex pattern of population movements within individual countries. Furthermore, there continue to be substantial flows of workers and refugees across international borders. Those demographic trends have taken place against a background of depressed economic conditions that have made it difficult for developing countries to meet the needs of their growing population for more employment, educational opportunities, agricultural land, and industrial capital. The juxtaposition of static economies and rapidly growing populations was recognized in the statements of Governments at the International Conference on Population in 1984. They affirmed the need to implement population policies in the context of respect for human rights and cultural values. Action was especially necessary if the status of women

  2. Noninvasive methods for monitoring bear population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, Katherine

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey began a grizzly bear research project in 2009 in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) of northwestern Montana. This work uses hair collection and DNA analysis methods similar to those used in the 2004 Northern Divide Grizzly Bear Project. However, instead of producing a snapshot of population size, the objectives of this new work are to estimate population growth rates by collecting hair at natural bear rubs along trails, roads, and fence and power lines. This approach holds promise of providing reliable estimates of population trends in an efficient, cost-effective, and unobtrusive way.

  3. Times to extinction for small populations of large birds.

    PubMed

    Pimm, S L; Diamond, J; Reed, T M; Russell, G J; Verner, J

    1993-11-15

    A major practical problem in conservation biology is to predict the survival times-"lifetimes"-for small populations under alternative proposed management regimes. Examples in the United States include the 'Alala (Hawaiian Crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) and Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). To guide such decisions, we analyze counts of all crow, owl, and hawk species in the most complete available data set: counts of bird breeding pairs on 14 European islands censused for 29-66 consecutive years. The data set yielded 129 records for analysis. We define the population ceiling as the highest number of breeding pairs observed from colonization to extinction, within a consecutive series of counts for a given species on a given island. The resulting distributions of population lifetimes as a function of population size prove to be highly skewed: most small populations disappear quickly, but a few last for a long time. Median (i.e., 50th percentile) lifetimes are calculated as only 1-5 yr for hawk, owl, and crow populations with ceilings of one or two breeding pairs. As expected if demographic accidents are the main cause of extinction for small populations, lifetimes rise by a factor of 3-4 for each additional pair up to three pairs. They rise more slowly thereafter. These observations suggest that lifetimes of the 'Alala (now reduced to about three pairs in the wild), and of populations of Northern Spotted Owl in the smallest forest fragments, will be short unless active management is implemented.

  4. Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

    PubMed

    Ralston, Joel; DeLuca, William V; Feldman, Richard E; King, David I

    2017-04-01

    Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.

  5. Recent Trends in Bird Abundance on Rhode Island Salt Marshes

    EPA Science Inventory

    Salt marsh habitat is under pressure from development on the landward side, and sea level rise from the seaward side. The resulting loss of habitat is potentially disastrous for salt marsh dependent species. To assess the population status of three species of salt marsh dependent...

  6. Recent Trends in Bird Abundance on Rhode Island Salt Marshes

    EPA Science Inventory

    Salt marsh habitat is under pressure from development on the landward side, and sea level rise from the seaward side. The resulting loss of habitat is potentially disastrous for salt marsh dependent species. To assess the population status of three species of salt marsh dependent...

  7. Effects of DDT on bird population of scrub forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Stewart, R.E.

    1949-01-01

    An oil spray of DDT was applied at the rate of five pounds per acre to a 90-acre tract of 5-year-old scrub and sapling growth at Beltsville, Maryland. Bird population studies were carried on in a 30-acre plot at the center of the sprayed area, and in a 30-acre check area of the same habitat one-half mile away. Of the five commonest species in the sprayed area, the Maryland yellowthroat, prairie warbler, and house wren were reduced 80 per cent, and the red-eyed towhee was apparently reduced 35 per cent; while no appreciable change in the numbers of yellow-breasted chats was noted. The total decrease for the five commonest species, which represented 77 per cent of the original population, was 65 per cent.

  8. Global population trends and policy options.

    PubMed

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The guild concept applied to management of bird populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verner, Jared

    1984-01-01

    Alternative ways to apply the guild concept to wildlife management are evaluated here. I reject the idea that indicator species can be selected for each bird guild to reduce costs of environmental assessment and monitoring. Promise is seen, however, in the option of using whole guilds to indicate the capability of habitat zones to support populations of wildlife species. It may be adequate for most management purposes to delineate guilds only for species that use an environment for breeding, because transients and winter residents probably use the same zones of the habitat in the same ways. Potential guilds are identified by cells of a two-dimensional matrix, the axes identifying primary feeding and nesting zones. Some questions may be answered with guilds as delineated by all cells in the matrix. Alternatively, larger guilds can be formed by grouping all species in each column or row of the matrix to identify, for example, all species that depend on tree canopies for foraging, or tree boles for nesting. One can also consider separately the resident breeders, migrant breeders, and winter residents to obtain insights into whether observed changes in numbers of birds in a guild are a result of conditions locally or elsewhere. I conclude that the guild concept probably has a place in wildlife management, but much testing must be done before it is widely applied.

  10. Birds

    Treesearch

    Jared Verner; Edward C. Beedy; Stephen L. Granholm; Lyman V. Ritter; Edward F. Toth

    1980-01-01

    This chapter offers information on the status, distribution (by habitat type and seral stage), and basic life history for each of 208 species of birds that are found in the western Sierra Nevada. Many of the data came from the literature, altl)ough the professional ornithologists involved with this project drew upon extensive personal experience with birds in the...

  11. Residues and trends of organochlorine pesticide and polychlorinated biphenyls in birds from Texas, 1965-88

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mora, Miguel A.

    1995-01-01

    Concentrations of DDE (a metabolite of DDT) in birds decreased during recent years in most areas of the continental United States. Organochlorine pesticides were widely used in agriculture in Texas from the early 1950s to the 1970s. I used previously published data to determine whether concentrations of DDE and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in birds from Texas have followed a decreasing trend similar to that in birds from other areas in the United States. A total of 2,669 bird samples was collected between 1965 and 1988 from diverse locations in Texas and was analyzed for organochlorines and other environmental contaminants. The brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus), laughing gull (Larus atricilla), black skimmer (Rynchops niger), and European starling (Sturnus vulgaris) were the most frequently studied species. DDE and PCBs were the most commonly detected organochlorines in bird tissues. Mean DDE concentrations ranged from 0.4 to 61.00 parts per million (ppm) wet weight (ww) and PCBs from 0.02 to 32.00 ppm ww. Concentrations of DDE in eggs and carcasses of black skimmers decreased significantly during 1970-84 and dropped from approximately 10 to nearly 3 ppm ww. PCBs decreased from approximately 7 ppm ww to 1 ppm ww in eggs and carcasses. DDE concentrations in eggs of brown pelicans varied from more than 3 ppm ww in 1970 to approximately 1 ppm ww in 1983; and PCB concentrations diminished from about 10 to 1 ppm ww. Decreasing trends in concentrations of DDE and PBCs were observed in most species, although in some cases, the estimated trends were not significantly different from zero. Concentrations of DDE in birds from the Texas coast decreased from more than 6.0 ppm in 1978 to below 0.5 ppm in 1985. The decreasing ratios in selected species varied from approximately 2.0 to 12.0 (DDE) and from 4.5 to 9.0 (PCBs). The results indicate that in general from 1965 to 1988, DDE and PCBs declined in birds from Texas.

  12. A reassessment of world population trends.

    PubMed

    Coale, A J

    1982-01-01

    This reassessment is limited to observations concerning trends in mortality and fertility and concerning longrun prospects for population growth. Recorded changes in mortality are compared with 3 projections made many years ago. Projections of European mortality made in 1941-42 understated by a wide margin the actual increase in expectation of life because of unforeseen technological changes in the prevention and cure of fatal disease. On the other hand, a projection made in 1955 for India, foreseeing a rapid rise in the 1950s and slower progress later on because of the exhaustion of the easier gains, appears to have been accurate and also to depict the prospects in other populations of relatively high mortality and low income. A different projection of life expectancy in Mexico was also quite close to actual changes in Mexican mortality; it was based on a universal curve constructed to represent how life expectancy rises, increasing ever more slowly as it approaches an upper limit. This curve (1 for each sex), constructed for projection of Mexican mortality, is employed as a standard of comparison for mortality changes in many countries. A number have followed the standard for females very closely for more than 3 decades; in developed countries, male life expectancy has generally fallen short of the standard. The almost universal low fertility in developed countries contrasts with the great diversity of levels and trends of fertility in developing countries, some of which retain undiminished high fertility and others of which have recently attained rates of childbearing as low as in the developed areas. Instances of surprisingly little change and surprisingly rapid change in fertility are described. In the future, growth of populations of developed countries will probably be slight; the future rate of increase in the developing areas depends on the unpredictable timing and pace of childbearing reduction in populations where fertility remains high. In the long run

  13. Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, Marc; Dorazio, Robert M.; Soldaat, Leo; Van Strien, Arco; Zuiderwijk, Annie; Royle, J. Andrew

    2009-01-01

    1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications. Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important

  14. Development of bird population monitoring in New Zealand: Proceedings of a workshop

    Treesearch

    E.B. Spurr; C.J. Ralph

    2006-01-01

    A workshop on monitoring terrestrial (land) bird populations in New Zealand was held on 11 December 2005, following the Australasian Ornithological Conference, St Mary's Parish Centre, Blenheim, New Zealand. The primary objective of the workshop was to consider options for the design and implementation of a terrestrial breeding bird population survey for New...

  15. Re-evaluating the use of beached bird oiling rates to assess long-term trends in chronic oil pollution.

    PubMed

    Wilhelm, Sabina I; Robertson, Gregory J; Ryan, Pierre C; Tobin, Stan F; Elliot, Richard D

    2009-02-01

    The oiling rate (oiled birds/total birds) has become the international standard to analyze beached bird survey data. However, this index may not reliably track long-term changes in marine oil pollution in regions where other activities that kill seabirds vulnerable to oil, such as hunting and gill-netting, are also changing. We compare the oiling rate from beached bird surveys conducted in southeastern Newfoundland between 1984 and 2006 to an alternative approach, namely trends derived from a model examining the linear density of oiled birds (birds/km). In winter, there was no change in the oiling rate since 1984, while in summer oiling rates significantly increased. In contrast, the number of oiled birds/km showed a significant decline in both winter and summer. The discrepancy in these trends was attributed to steep declines in the number of unoiled birds found in both seasons. In winter, the decline in unoiled birds/km was related to a reduction in the legal murre hunt and less onshore winds, while in summer a reduced cod fishery resulting in fewer murres drowning in nets and warming summers may have lead to the decline. The significant declines in oiled birds/km over the past three decades are hopefully an indication of less oil being present in the marine environment. Although oiled bird densities since 2000 have remained relatively low for the region (winter: 0.58 birds/km, summer: 0.27 birds/km), they still exceed densities reported elsewhere in the world.

  16. Occupational allergy to birds within the population of Polish bird keepers employed in zoo gardens.

    PubMed

    Swiderska-Kiełbik, Sylwia; Krakowiak, Anna; Wiszniewska, Marta; Nowakowska-Świrta, Ewa; Walusiak-Skorupa, Jolanta; Sliwkiewicz, Konrad; Pałczyński, Cezary

    2011-09-01

    To evaluate the risk factors for the development of occupational allergy to birds among Polish zoo garden keepers. A total of 200 bird zookeepers employed in the Polish zoo gardens in KLódź, Warsaw, Gdańsk, Chorzów and Płock and exposed occupationally to bird allergens were examined using a questionnaire, skin prick tests (SPTs) to common allergens and bird allergens, spirometry and cytograms of nasal swab. The level of total IgE in serum and serum-specific IgE to parrot, canary, pigeon feathers and serum were also evaluated. Eight percent of bird zookeepers were sensitized to at least one of the bird allergens. The most frequent allergens yielding positive SPT results were D. farinae - 32 cases (16%), D. pteronyssinus - 30 cases (15%) and grass pollens (16.5%). In the studied group, allergen-specific IgE against bird allergens occurred with the following frequency: 87 (43.5%) against canary feathers and/or serum, 80 (40%) against parrot feathers and/or serum and 82 (41%) against pigeon feathers and/or serum. Occupational allergy was diagnosed in 39 (26.5%) cases, occupational rhinitis was present in 22 (15%) cases, occupational asthma in 20 (13.6%) subjects, occupational conjunctivitis in 18 (12.2%) cases, whereas occupational skin diseases in 11 (7.5%) cases. More eosinophils were found in nose swab cytograms among bird zookeepers with occupational airway allergy. The findings indicate that occupational allergy to birds is an important health problem among zoo bird keepers in Poland.

  17. A method to assess the population-level consequences of wind energy facilities on bird and bat species: Chapter

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diffendorfer, James E.; Beston, Julie A.; Merrill, Matthew; Stanton, Jessica C.; Corum, Margo D.; Loss, Scott R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Erickson, Richard A.; Heist, Kevin W.

    2016-01-01

    For this study, a methodology was developed for assessing impacts of wind energy generation on populations of birds and bats at regional to national scales. The approach combines existing methods in applied ecology for prioritizing species in terms of their potential risk from wind energy facilities and estimating impacts of fatalities on population status and trend caused by collisions with wind energy infrastructure. Methods include a qualitative prioritization approach, demographic models, and potential biological removal. The approach can be used to prioritize species in need of more thorough study as well as to identify species with minimal risk. However, the components of this methodology require simplifying assumptions and the data required may be unavailable or of poor quality for some species. These issues should be carefully considered before using the methodology. The approach will increase in value as more data become available and will broaden the understanding of anthropogenic sources of mortality on bird and bat populations.

  18. Painted Bunting Breeding Bird Survey trends associated with landscape changes in Georgia and South Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyers, J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Landscape changes during the first 3 decades of the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) may account for the Painted Bunting's declining population trend. In the southeastern U.S., it is estimated that this bunting has declined 3.5 % per year since 1966. I collected landscape data centered on identical 5-stop areas (n = 33, 306 ha each) of the BBS during early (1960s - 1970s) and late decades (1980s - 1990s). Peak 30-yr counts for Painted Buntings were found at the center of the 5-stop areas. I used stepwise multiple regression analysis to model the mean number of Painted Buntings (in the area during 3 yr, dependent variable) associated with landscape metrics (independent variables). During the early decades the average amount of edge on developed land (p = 0.10), average patch size of agriculture land (p = 0.01), average size of shrub-scrub and young forest (p = 0.09), and average amount of edge for emergent wetlands (p = 0.03) explained 40% of the variation in Painted Buntings counts. In the late decades average amount of edge on developed land (p = 0.04) and average amount of edge on emergent wetlands (p = 0.005) explained 35% of the variation in Painted Bunting counts. Large losses of agricultural land (proportion = 0.177 to 0.094), which was developed or converted to intensively managed pin plantations, may have reduced potential bunting breeding habitat. Shrub-scrub and young forest habitat was constant (proportion = 0.136 to 0.134) but did not affect mean counts of buntings in the late decades. Protected emergent wetlands remained constnat also from the early to late decades (proportion = 0.056 to 0.06) and may provide habitat to maintain a smaller Painted Bunting population. At this time, it's unclear how develped land, which is increasing (proportion = 0.036 to 0.088), may be affecting the Painted Bunting population in GS and SC.

  19. World population trends in 1960-70.

    PubMed

    Tabah, L; Kono, S

    1974-01-01

    burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.

  20. Surveillance of avian coronaviruses in wild bird populations of Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hye-Ryoung; Oem, Jae-Ku

    2014-10-01

    We examined the role of wild birds in the epidemiology of avian coronaviruses by studying oropharyngeal swabs from 32 wild bird species. The 14 avian coronaviruses detected belonged to the gamma-coronaviruses and shared high nucleotide sequence identity with some previously identified strains in wild waterfowl, but not with infectious bronchitis viruses.

  1. Marine bird populations of Prince William Sound, Alaska, before and after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Bird study number 2. Exxon Valdez oil spill state/federal natural resource damage assessment final report

    SciTech Connect

    Klosiewski, S.P.; Laing, K.K.

    1994-06-01

    We estimated the summer and winter abundance of marine birds in Prince William Sound, Alaska, following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, examined changes in population size between pre-spill and post-spill surveys, and compared pre- to post-oil spill population trends in the oiled zone of the Sound relative to trends in the unoiled zone. Ninety-nine species of birds were observed on surveys. Estimated populations of 15 to 32 species/species groups demonstrated declines over the 17-19 year period between pre- and post-spill surveys. However, because of the long time period between surveys, we could not directly associate overall population declines with the oil spill.

  2. Climate change affects populations of northern birds in boreal protected areas.

    PubMed

    Virkkala, Raimo; Rajasärkkä, Ari

    2011-06-23

    Human land-use effects on species populations are minimized in protected areas and population changes can thus be more directly linked with changes in climate. In this study, bird population changes in 96 protected areas in Finland were compared using quantitative bird census data, between two time slices, 1981-1999 and 2000-2009, with the mean time span being 14 years. Bird species were categorized by distribution pattern and migratory strategy. Our results showed that northern bird species had declined by 21 per cent and southern species increased by 29 per cent in boreal protected areas during the study period, alongside a clear rise (0.7-0.8 °C) in mean temperatures. Distribution pattern was the main factor, with migratory strategy interacting in explaining population changes in boreal birds. Migration strategy interacted with distribution pattern so that, among northern birds, densities of both migratory and resident species declined, whereas among southern birds they both increased. The observed decline of northern species and increase in southern species are in line with the predictions of range shifts of these species groups under a warming climate, and suggest that the population dynamics of birds are already changing in natural boreal habitats in association with changing climate.

  3. Effects of habitat change along Breeding Bird Survey routes in the central Appalachians on Cerulean Warbler population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McElhone, P.; Wood, P.W.; Dawson, D.

    2007-01-01

    The cerulean warbler (Dendroica cerulea) is one of the highest priority bird species in the eastern United States because populations have declined 4.3% annually during 1966?2005 based on Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes is thought to be one of the major factors contributing to the decline. BBS routes, the primary source for monitoring bird population trends, include 50 sampling stops every 0.8 km. Although data from BBS routes are extrapolated to determine regional trends in bird populations, it is important to understand the effects of habitat changes at the stop-level along BBS routes. Route-level analysis of habitat changes may mask important changes that are occurring at a smaller scale particularly for the cerulean warbler which displays several micro-scale habitat preferences. We are examining cerulean warbler habitat and population changes in its core breeding range of the Ohio Hills and Cumberland Plateau physiographic regions. We quantified land cover changes within 300 m of BBS routes in the core cerulean warbler breeding range of Ohio, West Virginia, and Kentucky by digitizing aerial photographs from two time periods: the 1980s and 2004. We also quantified land cover changes within 300 m of BBS routes with the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) from 1992 and 2001. The hand-digitized aerial photos will be compared with the NLCD to determine how similar the two methods are in quantifying land cover changes. We then compared stop-level land cover changes with stop level changes in cerulean warbler detections within the same time periods along the BBS routes. This will allow for a more detailed analysis of how well habitat changes along BBS routes reflect the changes in cerulean warbler populations.

  4. Abundance-occupancy dynamics in a human dominated environment: linking interspecific and intraspecific trends in British farmland and woodland birds.

    PubMed

    Webb, Thomas J; Noble, David; Freckleton, Robert P

    2007-01-01

    1. Range size, population size and body size, the key macroecological variables, vary temporally both within and across species in response to anthropogenic and natural environmental change. However, resulting temporal trends in the relationships between these variables (i.e. macroecological patterns) have received little attention. 2. Positive relationships between the local abundance and regional occupancy of species (abundance-occupancy relationships) are among the most pervasive of all macroecological patterns. In the absence of formal predictions of how abundance-occupancy relationships may vary temporally, we outline several scenarios of how changes in abundance within species might affect interspecific patterns. 3. We use data on the distribution and abundance of 73 farmland and 55 woodland bird species in Britain over a 32-year period encompassing substantial habitat modification to assess the likelihood of these scenarios. 4. In both farmland and woodland habitats, the interspecific abundance-occupancy relationship changed markedly over the period 1968-99, with a significant decline in the strength of the relationship. 5. Consideration of intraspecific dynamics shows that this has been due to a decoupling of abundance and occupancy particularly in rare and declining species. Insights into the intraspecific processes responsible for the interspecific trend are obtained by analysis of temporal trends in the distribution of individuals between sites, which show patterns consistent with habitat quality declines. 6. This study shows that a profitable approach to ascertaining the nature of human impacts is to link intra- and interspecific processes. In the case of British farmland and woodland birds, changes to the environment lead to species-specific responses in large-scale distributions. These species-specific changes are the driver of the observed changes in the form and strength of the interspecific relationship.

  5. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    PubMed

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A; Novak, Stephen J

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1) and 7.74 km yr(-1) shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  6. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    PubMed Central

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  7. Demographic trends, population policy and public opinion.

    PubMed

    Palomba, R; Bonifazi, C; Menniti, A

    1989-01-01

    Findings are analyzed of the Instituto di Richerche solla poplazione survey carried out in Italy in 1987 which focused on: 1) those variables which may be indirectly affecting Italian's fertility intentions, and 2) the degree of acceptability of a global social policy i.e., one that is not only restricted to economic incentives to be offered to families. Data was obtained from a national sample of 1500 people between 18-49 years. Italians have a good awareness of demographic issues; 61% knew of the decline in marriages; 72% were aware of the increasing aging population; 50% viewed the fall in birth rate negatively; and 41% thought that population and fertility trends would remain at the present low level or would decrease even further (49%). The birth rate decline was contributed to economic reasons at both reasons at both a global and an individual level. The majority of people did not show any signs of prejudice toward immigrants; however, they did favor limiting the number of foreigners in general with the exception of political refugees. The majority were also in favor of helping 3rd World countries. Although Italians value their children and the parent-child relationship very highly, a reduction in the value of children with increasing educational level of the respondents was observed. 83% thought that couples should be allowed to have as many children as they wanted; 81% agreed that measures regarding contraceptive knowledge and availability should be improved; and 49% were in favor of measures to increase births. Regarding possible new policy measures, 50% were in full agreement on the development and increased efficiency of social services to enable women to go out to work. (author's modified)

  8. Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1-min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species-specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy-based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.

  9. Latent population responses of summer birds to a catastrophic, climatological event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knopf, Fritz L.; Sedgwick, James A.

    1987-01-01

    Catastrophic events can create ecological crunches for avian populations. Ornithologists generally assume that such events elicit immediate, dramatic declines in populations followed by rapid recolonization of a site with habitat recovery. Despite total inundation of habitats within the South Platte floodplain of eastern Colorado during the 1983 breeding season, populations of Brown Thrashers (Toxostoma rufum) and Rufoussided Towhees (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) did not decline significantly from 1982 densities. However, populations of both species declined significantly in 1984 and towhee populations remained low in 1985. These observations support speculations from recent studies of shrubsteppe bird populations that site tenacity may play a stronger role in determining annual densities of breeding birds than previously realized.

  10. Contaminant effects on Great Lakes' fish-eating birds: a population perspective

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heinz, G.H.; Kendall, Ronald J.; Dickerson, Richard L.; Giesy, John P.; Suk, William P.

    1998-01-01

    Preventing environmental contaminants from reducing wildlife populations is the greatest concern in wildlife toxicology. In the Great Lakes, environmental contaminants have a history of reducing populations of many species of fish-eating birds. Endocrine effects may have contributed to declines in fish-eating bird populations, but the overriding harm was caused by DDE-induced eggshell thinning. Toxic effects may still be occurring today, but apparently they are not of a sufficient magnitude to depress populations of most fish-eating birds. Once DDE levels in the Great Lakes declined, eggshells of birds began to get thicker and reproductive success improved. Populations of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) and ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) have increased dramatically since the bans on DDT and other organochlorine pesticides. Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are still not reproducing at a normal rate along the shores of the Great Lakes, but success is much improved compared to earlier records when eggshell thinning was worse. Other species, such as herring gulls (Larus argentatus) and black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax), seem to be having improved reproductive success, but data on Great Lakes'-wide population changes are incomplete. Reproductive success of common terns (Sterna hirundo), Caspian terns (Sterna caspia), and Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) seems to have improved in recent years, but, again, data on population changes are not very complete, and these birds face many habitat related problems as well as contaminant problems. Although contaminants are still producing toxic effects, and these effects may include endocrine disfunction, fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes seem to be largely weathering these effects, at least as far as populations are concerned. A lack of obvious contaminant effects on populations of fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes, however, should not be equated with a lack of any harm to

  11. Reproduction and population levels of Peruvian Guano Birds, 1980 to 1986

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tovar, H.; GuilléN, V.; Cabrera, D.

    1987-12-01

    The three species of guano birds, guanay cormorant (Phalacrocorax bougainvillii), Peruvian booby (Sula variegate), and Peruvian pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis thagus), depend mainly on the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) for sustenance. A naturally occurring limitation on the population size of these birds is the oceanographic phenomenon known as "El Niño". The industrialization of the anchovy fishery during the 1960s and 1970s has also affected seabird populations: The annual extraction of huge volumes offish has decreased the availability of food for the guano birds, causing large population fluctuations and considerable changes in the relative abundance of the birds. Because of its great intensity and duration, the 1982-1983 El Niño caused high avian mortality, depressing populations to levels from which they have not yet recovered.

  12. Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China.

    PubMed

    Kamp, Johannes; Oppel, Steffen; Ananin, Alexandr A; Durnev, Yurii A; Gashev, Sergey N; Hölzel, Norbert; Mishchenko, Alexandr L; Pessa, Jorma; Smirenski, Sergey M; Strelnikov, Evgenii G; Timonen, Sami; Wolanska, Kolja; Chan, Simba

    2015-12-01

    Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow-breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species' migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long-term monitoring data from across the species' range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3-94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species' range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow-breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial-scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species' populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.

  13. A method of studying wild bird populations by mist-netting and banding

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stamm, D.D.; Davis, D.E.; Robbins, C.S.

    1960-01-01

    1. Progress is reported toward development of a method of bird-population study based on mist-netting and banding. A definite pattern of arrangement and schedule of operation are presented. 2. Nets were operated for a total of 4200 net-hours during which 966 captures were made (23.0 birds per 100 net-hours). A total of 431 adult breeding birds were banded and 38 per cent of them were recaptured. 3. A breeding bird census was made simultaneously in the same area by the Williams spot-mapping technique. 4. Estimates of population by recapture agreed closely with the spot-mappmg census. 5. Some birds are demonstrated to have overlapping home-ranges much larger than their singing territories. 6. Recruitment and net-shyness distort recapture estimates of population .but the method allows detection and assessment of their influence in the population dealt with here. 7. The method produced integrated information on population density and dynamics, movement and behavior. 8. The procedure is especially well adapted to studies of disease agents in bird populations. 9. A simple scheme for description of the habitat in terms of relative abundance and frequency of occurrence of tree species was used.

  14. Winter marine bird and sea otter abundance of Prince William Sound, Alaska: Trends following the t/v Exxon Valdez oil spill from 1990-94. Restoration project 94159. Exxon Valdez oil spill restoration project final report

    SciTech Connect

    Agler, B.A.; Seiser, P.E.; Kendall, S.J.; Irons, D.B.

    1995-05-01

    We conducted small boat surveys to determine population abundance of marine birds and sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska during March 1994. We observed 45 bird and 8 mammal species in Prince William Sound, and we estimated that 320,470 + or - 63,640 marine birds were present. We estimated trends in the March population estimates from 1990-94 by determining whether estimates in the oiled zone changed at the same rate as those in the unoiled zone. For Prince William Sound as a whole, we also examined the population trends from 1990-94 using regression analyses. We found significant positive trends for harlequin duck (Histrionicus), goldeneye, merganser, bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and gull (Larus and Rissa spp.) populations. We also examined the relative abundance of marine bird species groups from 1972 to 1994. During March 1994, we estimated that the sea otter population was 7,746 + or - 2,073 otters. We found no difference in the rate of change between the oiled and unoiled zones from 1990-94, and there was no significant trend in the total number of sea otters in Prince William Sound from 1990-94.

  15. Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenig, Walter D.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

    2016-06-01

    The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony--the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape--despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years--the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate--paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

  16. Fire ecology and bird populations in eastern deciduous forests

    Treesearch

    Vanessa L. Artman; Todd F. Hutchinson; Jeffrey D. Brawn; Jeffrey D. Brawn

    2005-01-01

    Eastern deciduous forests are located across the central portion of eastern North America and provide habitat for a wide diversity of bird species. The occurrence of fi re in the region has been associated with the presence of humans for over 10,000 yr. While pre-European fire regimes are poorly understood, fire is widely thought to have promoted and maintained large...

  17. Population trends of red-cockaded woodpeckers in Texas

    Treesearch

    Richard N. Conner; Daniel Saenz; D. Craig Rudolph

    2006-01-01

    tracked population trends of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) in eastern Texas from 1983 through 2004. After declining precipitously during the 1980s, woodpecker population trends on federal lands (National Forests and Grasslands in Texas, but excluding the Big Thicket National Preserve) increased between 1990 and 2000, and have been...

  18. Impact of Spring Bird Migration on the Range Expansion of Ixodes scapularis Tick Population.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiaotian; Röst, Gergely; Zou, Xingfu

    2016-01-01

    Many observational studies suggest that seasonal migratory birds play an important role in spreading Ixodes scapularis, a vector of Lyme disease, along their migratory flyways, and they are believed to be responsible for geographic range expansion of I. scapularis in Canada. However, the interplay between the dynamics of I. scapularis on land and migratory birds in the air is not well understood. In this study, we develop a periodic delay meta-population model which takes into consideration the local landscape for tick reproduction within patches and the times needed for ticks to be transported by birds between patches. Assuming that the tick population is endemic in the source region, we find that bird migration may boost an already established tick population at the subsequent region and thus increase the risk to humans, or bird migration may help ticks to establish in a region where the local landscape is not appropriate for ticks to survive in the absence of bird migration, imposing risks to public health. This theoretical study reveals that bird migration plays an important role in the geographic range expansion of I. scapularis, and therefore our findings may suggest some strategies for Lyme disease prevention and control.

  19. 1984 Population Trends for Washington State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington State Office of Financial Management, Olympia.

    As of April 1, 1984, Washington's population was estimated at 4,328,100, an increase of 43,000 over last year's population. This report provides data pertaining to the: official April 1, 1984 population and housing estimates for cities, towns, and counties and components of population change. The following special reports are also presented:…

  20. Status and trends of native birds in the Keauhou and Kilauea forest, Hawai`i Island.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Jacobi, James D.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Rubenstein, Tanya

    2010-01-01

    A Safe Harbor Agreement (SHA) is a voluntary arrangement between the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and non-Federal landowners to promote the protection, conservation, and recovery of listed species without imposing further land use restrictions on the landowners. Kamehameha Schools is considering entering into a SHA for their Keauhou and Kīlauea Forest lands on the island of Hawai′i. Bird surveys were conducted in 2008 to determine the current occurrence and density of listed species for the Keauhou and Kīlauea Forest, a prerequisite for establishing an agreement. Because of different management practices in the proposed SHA area we stratified the survey data into intact and altered forest strata. The listed passerines—′Akiapōlā′au (Hemignathus munroi), Hawai′i Creeper (Oreomystis mana), and Hawai′i ′Ākepa (Loxops coccineus)—occur in both strata but at low densities. The endangered ′Io (Hawaiian Hawk; Buteo solitarius) also occurs within both strata at low densities. This report was prepared for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Kamehameha Schools to provide information they can use to establish baseline levels for the SHA. In addition, we describe the status and trends of the non-listed native birds.

  1. Population trends of North American shorebirds based on the International Shorebird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Howe, M.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Harrington, B.A.

    1989-01-01

    Shorebirds (Charadiiformes) are prime candidates for population decline because of their dependence on wetlands that are being lost at a rapid pace. Thirty-six of the 49 species of shorebirds that breed in North America spend most of the year in Latin America. Because populations of most species breed and winter at remote sites , it may be feasible to monitor their numbers at migration stopovers. In this study, we used statistical trend analysis methods, developed for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, to analyze data on shorebird populations during south-bound migration in the United States. Survey data were collected by volunteers in the International Shorebird Survey (ISS). Methodological concerns over both the ISS and the trend analysis procedures are discussed in detail and biological interpretations of the results are suggested.

  2. Pricing implications of trends in population mortality and underwriting effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Pokorski, Robert J

    2004-01-01

    Pricing actuaries try to anticipate insured lives mortality rates for decades into the future by considering historic relationships between population and insured lives mortality and trends in population mortality. The degree to which underwriting might decrease insured lives mortality relative to population mortality is of particular importance. A comparison of trends in population and insured mortality is presented to illustrate historic relationships. Two theories for future life expectancy trends are: 1) no foreseeable limit to life expectancy, and 2) life expectancy limited by biological forces. Factors that may increase or decrease the future effectiveness of underwriting are reviewed.

  3. A comparison of landscapes occupied by increasing and decreasing populations of grassland birds.

    PubMed

    Veech, Joseph A

    2006-10-01

    For several decades, many grassland bird species have been declining in abundance throughout the Midwest and Great Plains regions of the United States, possibly due to loss of natural grassland habitat and increasing urbanization. I used 20 years of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to identify increasing, decreasing, and stable populations of 36 grassland-nesting bird species. I characterized the immediate landscape (circle with radius = 30 km) surrounding each population based on data from the National Resources Inventory. For each landscape, I calculated the proportion of eight different land-cover types: restored grassland, rangeland, cultivated cropland, pasture, noncultivated cropland, forest, urban land, and water. Using a null model, I compared landscape composition of increasing, decreasing, and stable populations. As predicted on the basis of the habitat preferences of grassland birds, increasing populations inhabited landscapes that contained significantly more restored grassland and rangeland but significantly less forest land and urban land than landscapes inhabited by decreasing populations. There was no significant difference in the proportion of cropland within the landscapes of increasing and decreasing populations, although cropland composed a large proportion (>30%) of many landscapes. In contrast, restored grassland typically composed a very small proportion (<3.5%) of total land cover, yet it was significantly more common in the landscapes of increasing than decreasing populations. These results suggest that grassland birds may benefit from government initiatives, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, that promote the restoration of grassland at a landscape scale.

  4. 1988 Population Trends for Washington State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington State Office of Financial Management, Olympia.

    This statistical profile provides current demographic data for Washington State and its counties, incorporated cities and towns. Seventeen tables show population by age and sex; population for counties, incorporated cities and towns, and the state; components of population change; a rank order of total persons in incorporated cities and towns;…

  5. Population Trends and the Implications for Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hauser, Philip M.

    There are three developments which have profoundly affected mans' values, attitudes, social institutions, and behaviorisms. These are the population explosion, the population implosion, and population differentiation. These three developments are interrelated and are affected by accelerating rates of technological and social change. By reason of…

  6. Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

  7. Limited catching bias in a wild population of birds with near-complete census information.

    PubMed

    Simons, Mirre J P; Winney, Isabel; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Burke, Terry; Schroeder, Julia

    2015-08-01

    Animal research often relies on catching wild animals; however, individuals may have different trappability, and this can generate bias. We studied bias in mist netting, the main method for catching wild birds. The unusually high resighting rate in our study population-house sparrows (Passer domesticus) on Lundy Island (England)-allowed us to obtain accurate estimates of the population size. This unique situation enabled us to test for catching bias in mist netting using deviations from the expected Poisson distribution. There was no evidence that a fraction of the birds in the population consistently remained uncaught. However, we detected a different bias: More birds than expected were captured only once within a year. This bias probably resulted from a mixture of fieldworkers sometimes ignoring rapid recaptures and birds becoming net shy after their first capture. We had sufficient statistical power with the available data to detect a substantial uncaught fraction. Therefore, our data are probably unbiased toward catching specific individuals from our population. Our analyses demonstrate that intensively monitored natural insular populations, in which population size can be estimated precisely, provide the potential to address important unanswered questions without concerns about a fraction of the population remaining uncaught. Our approach can help researchers to test for catching bias in closely monitored wild populations for which reliable estimates of population size and dispersal are available.

  8. Population trends in Malaysia: 1970-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Saharani Abdul; Ghani, Puzziawati Ab; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-12-01

    The size of population in Malaysia had reached 28.3 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 38.6 million in the next 30 years. This demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This paper looks at the last 40 years of changes in Malaysia population structure due to the changes in demographic phenomenon using data obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The principal finding of this research indicates that population structure in Malaysia had changed dramatically from the year 1970 to 2010. At the same time, Malaysia has completed its demographic transition in less than four decades. The fall in fertility and mortality rates have led to an improvement in the life expectancy of the population which has resulted an ageing population in Malaysia.

  9. Breeding bird populations and habitat associations within the Savannah River Site (SRS).

    SciTech Connect

    Gauthreaux, Sidney, A.; Steven J. Wagner.

    2005-06-29

    Gauthreaux, Sidney, A., and Steven J. Wagner. 2005. Breeding bird populations and habitat associations within the Savannah River Site (SRS). Final Report. USDA Forest Service, Savannah River, Aiken, SC. 48 pp. Abstract: During the 1970's and 1980's a dramatic decline occurred in the populations of Neotropical migratory birds, species that breed in North America and winter south of the border in Central and South America and in the Caribbean. In 1991 an international initiative was mounted by U. S. governmental land management agencies, nongovernmental conservation agencies, and the academic and lay ornithological communities to understand the decline of Neotropical migratory birds in the Americas. In cooperation with the USDA Forest Service - Savannah River (FS - SR) we began 1992 a project directed to monitoring population densities of breeding birds using the Breeding Bird Census (BBC) methodology in selected habitats within the Savannah River Site SRS. In addition we related point count data on the occurrence of breeding Neotropical migrants and other bird species to the habitat data gathered by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service and data on habitat treatments within forest stands.

  10. A retrospective perspective: evaluating population changes by repeating historic bird surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Igl, Lawrence D.; Johnson, Douglas H.

    2005-01-01

    Acquiring an accurate picture of the changes in bird populations often involves a tradeoff between the time and effort required to complete the surveys and the number of years spent surveying the bird populations. An alternative approach to long-term monitoring efforts is to collect current data and contrast those with data collected earlier in a similar fashion on the same study site(s). To evaluate changes in bird populations, we repeated two extensive surveys, one in North Dakota (1967 vs. 1992-1993) and the other in the Platte River Valley of Nebraska (1979-1980 vs. 2001), where large areas of native vegetation had been converted to agriculture. We use these examples and others from the literature to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of using historical data as a frame of reference for population changes.

  11. Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: a response to global warming?

    PubMed

    Brown, J L; Li, S H; Bhagabati, N

    1999-05-11

    In regions with severe winters, global warming may be expected to cause earlier onset of breeding in most animals, yet no documentation of such a trend exists in North America. In a study of marked individuals of the Mexican jay (Aphelocoma ultramarina) in southeastern Arizona, from 1971 to 1998, the mean Julian date of first clutch in the population declined significantly by 10.1 days. The date of the first nest in the population also became earlier, by 10.8 days. These changes were associated with significant trends toward increased monthly minimum temperatures on the study area, traits that are associated with the onset of breeding in this population. Significant trends from 1971 to 1997 toward warmer minimum temperatures in the months before and during the initiation of breeding were observed. These trends parallel changes in minimum temperatures and community composition in a recent study of grassland ecology in the western United States. Together, they suggest that more attention should be given to the possible ecological importance of global change in minimum temperatures.

  12. From daily movements to population distributions: weather affects competitive ability in a guild of soaring birds.

    PubMed

    Shepard, Emily L C; Lambertucci, Sergio A

    2013-11-06

    The ability of many animals to access and exploit food is dependent on the ability to move. In the case of scavenging birds, which use soaring flight to locate and exploit ephemeral resources, the cost and speed of movement vary with meteorological factors. These factors are likely to modify the nature of interspecific interactions, as well as individual movement capacity, although the former are less well understood. We used aeronautical models to examine how soaring performance varies with weather within a guild of scavenging birds and the consequences this has for access to a common resource. Birds could be divided broadly into those with low wing loading that are more competitive in conditions with weak updraughts and low winds (black vultures and caracaras), and those with high wing loading that are well adapted for soaring in strong updraughts and moderate to high winds (Andean condors). Spatial trends in meteorological factors seem to confine scavengers with high wing loading to the mountains where they out-compete other birds; a trend that is borne out in worldwide distributions of the largest species. However, model predictions and carcass observations suggest that the competitive ability of these and other birds varies with meteorological conditions in areas where distributions overlap. This challenges the view that scavenging guilds are structured by fixed patterns of dominance and suggests that competitive ability varies across spatial and temporal scales, which may ultimately be a mechanism promoting diversity among aerial scavengers.

  13. From daily movements to population distributions: weather affects competitive ability in a guild of soaring birds

    PubMed Central

    Shepard, Emily L. C.; Lambertucci, Sergio A.

    2013-01-01

    The ability of many animals to access and exploit food is dependent on the ability to move. In the case of scavenging birds, which use soaring flight to locate and exploit ephemeral resources, the cost and speed of movement vary with meteorological factors. These factors are likely to modify the nature of interspecific interactions, as well as individual movement capacity, although the former are less well understood. We used aeronautical models to examine how soaring performance varies with weather within a guild of scavenging birds and the consequences this has for access to a common resource. Birds could be divided broadly into those with low wing loading that are more competitive in conditions with weak updraughts and low winds (black vultures and caracaras), and those with high wing loading that are well adapted for soaring in strong updraughts and moderate to high winds (Andean condors). Spatial trends in meteorological factors seem to confine scavengers with high wing loading to the mountains where they out-compete other birds; a trend that is borne out in worldwide distributions of the largest species. However, model predictions and carcass observations suggest that the competitive ability of these and other birds varies with meteorological conditions in areas where distributions overlap. This challenges the view that scavenging guilds are structured by fixed patterns of dominance and suggests that competitive ability varies across spatial and temporal scales, which may ultimately be a mechanism promoting diversity among aerial scavengers. PMID:24026471

  14. 1987 Population Trends for Washington State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington State Office of Financial Management, Olympia.

    This statistical profile provides current demographic data for Washington State and is also broken down by counties, incorporated cities, and towns. Fifteen tables show population figures; components of population change; housing units by structure type; annexations, incorporations and municipal boundary changes; growth of households; estimates of…

  15. Global Population Trends: Challenges Facing World Leaders.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scommegna, Paola, Ed.

    This pamphlet explores the dynamics of world population, highlighting steps world leaders can take to address population problems and improve the lives of people worldwide. With jet-age transportation and electronic communication, economic and social interdependence of nations is greater than ever before and is likely to increase in the future.…

  16. Population Trends of the 1960's

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taeuber, Conrad

    1972-01-01

    Summarizes preliminary data from the 1970 United States Census, commenting particularly upon the age composition of the population, the growth of metropolitan areas, patterns of internal migration, and changes in family structure and living arrangements. (AL)

  17. Estimates of population change in selected species of tropical birds using mark-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Nesbitt, J.

    2000-01-01

    The population biology of tropical birds is known for a only small sample of species; especially in the Neotropics. Robust estimates of parameters such as survival rate and finite rate of population change (A) are crucial for conservation purposes and useful for studies of avian life histories. We used methods developed by Pradel (1996, Biometrics 52:703-709) to estimate A for 10 species of tropical forest lowland birds using data from a long-term (> 20 yr) banding study in Panama. These species constitute a ecologically and phylogenetically diverse sample. We present these estimates and explore if they are consistent with what we know from selected studies of banded birds and from 5 yr of estimating nesting success (i.e., an important component of A). A major goal of these analyses is to assess if the mark-recapture methods generate reliable and reasonably precise estimates of population change than traditional methods that require more sampling effort.

  18. Contributions of the Conservation Reserve Program to populations of breeding birds in North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.; Igl, L.D.

    1995-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that habitat provided by the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a feature of the 1985 farm bill, is used by many birds. The present study quantitatively assesses the importance of the CRP by estimating changes in breeding-bird populations of North Dakota projected if CRP land would revert to cultivation. Of 18 species that were common in CRP or crop fields or both, 12 were more abundant in CRP habitats. Six of these species had suffered significant population declines during 1967-1990, according to the North American Breeding Bird Survey. In contrast, none of the six species that were more common in cropland than in CRP fields had declined significantly. Termination of the Conservation Reserve Program and a return of enrolled land to cultivation is projected to cause population declines in North Dakota exceeding 17% for Sedge wren (Cistothorus platensis), Grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), Dickcissel (Spiza americana), and Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys).

  19. World population. Past, present and future trends.

    PubMed

    Tarcă, M

    1990-01-01

    The history of, and prospect for, world population growth is presented in this study. The study is based mainly on data compiled and published in the last years by the population Division, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the International Labour Organisation of the United Nations and the World Bank. The population of the world grew from about 300 million at the beginning of the Christian era to half billion in 1650 to one billion in 1800, to two billion in 1927, to three billion in 1960, to four billion in 1974, and to five billion in 1987. According to the medium variant of the United Nations projections the population of the world will reach six billion in 1988, seven billion in 2010, eight in 2023, nine in 2050, and ten around 2100. This number demonstrate the acceleration growth rate of world population which is explained be the theory of demographic transition. In 1985 developing countries had 3663 million persons or about three-fourths of the total population of the world. According to medium variant of projection the less-developed areas would increase their population to 4845 person by the end of the century or by four-fifths of the total. In contrast the developed countries would increase from 1174 million persons in 1985 to only 1277 million in 2000. Examining estimates of total and per capita income we must be impressed with the wide difference between the wealthiest and the poorest countries. The developed countries having the highest average incomes have undergone industrialization and modernization of the economy; the developing countries with lowest incomes are those with a predominance of agriculture in most cases. Statistical data shows that the disparity between the prosperity of the industrial countries and the poverty of the preindustrial countries was increasing in the last two decades.

  20. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    PubMed

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  1. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

    PubMed Central

    Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  2. Monitoring Progress in Population Health: Trends in Premature Death Rates

    PubMed Central

    Catlin, Bridget B.; Kindig, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Trends in population health outcomes can be monitored to evaluate the performance of population health systems at the national, state, and local levels. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast 4 measures for assessing progress in population health improvement by using age-adjusted premature death rates as a summary measure of the overall health outcomes in the United States and in all 50 states. Methods To evaluate the performance of statewide population health systems during the past 20 years, we used 4 measures of age-adjusted premature (<75 years of age) death rates: current rates (2009), baseline trends (1990s), follow-up trends (2000s), and changes in trends from baseline to the follow-up periods (ie, “bending the curve”). Results Current premature death rates varied by approximately twofold, with the lowest rate in Minnesota (268 deaths per 100,000) and the highest rate in Mississippi (482 deaths per 100,000). Rates improved the most in New York during the baseline period (−3.05% per year) and in New Jersey during the follow-up period (−2.87% per year), whereas Oklahoma ranked last in trends during both periods (−0.30%/y, baseline; +0.18%/y, follow-up). Trends improved the most in Connecticut, bending the curve downward by −1.03%; trends worsened the most in New Mexico, bending the curve upward by 1.21%. Discussion Current premature death rates, recent trends, and changes in trends vary by state in the United States. Policy makers can use these measures to evaluate the long-term population health impact of broad health care, behavioral, social, and economic investments in population health. PMID:24370109

  3. Living in the city: resource availability, predation, and bird population dynamics in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Anderies, John M; Katti, Madhusudan; Shochat, Eyal

    2007-07-07

    This article explores factors that shape population structure in novel environments that have received scant theoretical attention: cities. Urban bird populations exhibit higher densities and lower diversity. Some work suggests this may result from lower predation pressure and more predictable and abundant resources. These factors may lead to populations with few winners and many losers regarding access to food, body condition, and reproductive success. We explore these hypotheses with an individual-energy-based competition model with two phenotypes of differing foraging ability. We show that low frequency resource fluctuations favor strong competitors and vice versa. We show that low predation skews equilibrium populations in favor of weak competitors and vice versa. Increasing the time between resource pulses can thus shift population structure from weak to strong competitor dominance. Given recent evidence for more constant resource input and lower predation in urban areas, the model helps understand observed urban bird population structure.

  4. Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bruggeman, Jason E.; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E.; Kennedy, Patricia L.; Nigro, Debora A.

    2015-01-01

    Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably

  5. Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality.

    PubMed

    Bruggeman, Jason E; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E; Kennedy, Patricia L; Nigro, Debora

    2015-10-01

    Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably

  6. Counting migrants to monitor bird populations: state of the art

    Treesearch

    Erica H. Dunn

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to summarize background information on what migration monitoring is, what biases are present and how they can be addressed, evidence that resulting trends are biologically meaningful, and what the benefits and limitations of the method are. Some topics have been covered elsewhere in greater detail (Dunn and Hussell 1995, Dunn et al. 1997,...

  7. Changes in breeding bird populations in North Dakota: 1967 to 1992-93

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Igl, L.D.; Johnson, D.H.

    1997-01-01

    We compared breeding bird populations in North Dakota using surveys conducted in 1967 and 1992-93. In decreasing order, the five most frequently occurring species were Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris), Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta), Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus). The five most abundant species - Horned Lark, Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus), Red-winged Blackbird, Western Meadowlark, and Brown-headed Cowbird - accounted for 31-41% of the estimated statewide breeding bird population in the three years. Although species composition remained relatively similar among years, between-year patterns in abundance and frequency varied considerably among species. Data from this survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicated that species exhibiting significant declines were primarily grassland- and wetland-breeding birds, whereas species exhibiting significant increases primarily were those associated with human structures and woody vegetation. Population declines and increases for species with similar habitat associations paralleled breeding habitat changes, providing evidence that factors on the breeding grounds are having a detectable effect on breeding birds in the northern Great Plains.

  8. Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Senapathi, Deepa; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Teplitsky, Celine; Jones, Carl G; Norris, Ken

    2011-11-07

    There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

  9. Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Senapathi, Deepa; Nicoll, Malcolm A. C.; Teplitsky, Celine; Jones, Carl G.; Norris, Ken

    2011-01-01

    There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season. PMID:21429927

  10. Recent status and trends of the land bird avifauna on Saipan, Mariana Islands, with emphasis on the endangered Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, R.J.; Pratt, T.K.; Marshall, A.P.; Amidon, F.; Williams, L.L.

    2009-01-01

    The avifauna of the Mariana Islands, an archipelago in the western Pacific, faces the threats of rapid economic development and the spread of non-native species, particularly a devastating predator, Brown Tree Snake Boiga irregularis. In this paper, we examine the status and trends of the land bird fauna of Saipan Island based on three island-wide surveys conducted in 1982, 1997, and 2007. During this period, the human population on Saipan increased more than four-fold and much of the island has been developed. The surveys employed standard point-transect methods based on Distance Sampling. Remarkably, we found nearly all species of land birds - 11 native species and three introduced species - to be common or abundant. The exception was the Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperouse, a historically rare species that was not observed on the 2007 survey, although it does persist on Saipan and other Mariana islands. A comparison of species densities among the three surveys showed that seven species, mainly fruit and seed-eaters, had increased and three species of insectivorous birds had decreased - Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinia, and Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei. Of these three, Nightingale Reed-warbler is listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List and as an Endangered Species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Reed-warbler densities on Saipan decreased by more than half between 1982 and 2007. Although point transect sampling worked well for this species, density estimates and trends assessment could be improved by reallocating sampling stations among habitats and by more frequent sampling. ?? BirdLife International 2009.

  11. Estimating population change from count data: Application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, William A.; Sauer, John R.

    1998-01-01

    For birds and many other animal taxa, surveys that collect count data form a primary source of information on population change. Because counts are only indices to population size, care must be taken in using them in analyses of population change. Temporal or geographic differences in the proportion of animals counted can be misinterpreted as differences in population size. Therefore, temporally or geographically varying factors that influence the proportion of animals counted must be incorporated as covariables in the analysis of population parameters from count data. We describe the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) for illustration. The BBS is a major, landscape-level survey of birds in North America; it is typical of many count surveys, in that the same sample units (survey routes) are sampled each year, and change is modeled on these routes over time. We identify covariables related to observer ability, the omission of which can bias estimation of population change from BBS data. Controlling for observer effects or other potential sources of confounding requires the specification of models relating counts to population size. We begin with a partial model specification relating expected counts to population sizes; we describe estimators currently in use in relation to this partial specification. Additional assumptions lead to a class of over-dispersed multinomial models, for which we describe estimators of population change and procedures for parsimonious model selection. We illustrate the use of over-dispersed multinomial models by an application to data for Carolina Wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus).

  12. Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with bird populations as habitat-specific environmental indicators: evidence from Canada.

    PubMed

    Lantz, Van; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

    2008-04-01

    The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis-namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed- or random-effect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.

  13. Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millsap, Brian A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John R.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Otto, Mark; Bjerre, Emily; Murphy, Robert K.

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we

  14. U.S. Population Trends Break with Past.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beale, Calvin L.

    1985-01-01

    Examines and explains unexpected population trends since 1970: substantial rural and small-town growth, regional shifts to the South and West, lower birth rates, increased life expectancy, smaller household size, and population growth from immigration. Illustrates how demographic events offer classic examples of the difficulty of predicting human…

  15. Decade of Pessimistic Nonmetro Population Trends Ends on Optimistic Note.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beale, Calvin L.; Fuguitt, Glenn V.

    1990-01-01

    Annual nonmetro population growth was lower in 1980-88 than in 1970s, but agricultural and manufacturing counties showed some recovery in 1986-88. Retirement counties grew at twice national rate during 1980s, underscoring diversity in nonmetro population trends across regions. Rural outmigration pattern was diverse with a net national balance to…

  16. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  17. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, F.J.; Dorazio, R.M.; Rice, K.G.; Cherkiss, M.; Jeffery, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001-2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations. ?? 2011 US Government.

  18. Predatory bird populations in the east Mojave Desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knight, R.L.; Camp, R.J.; Boarman, W.I.; Knight, H.A.L.

    1999-01-01

    We surveyed 7 species of predatory birds weekly during a 12-month period (December 1992 through November 1993) in the east Mojave Desert, California. The Common Raven (Corvus corax) was the most frequently observed species with an average of 6.9 sightings per 100 km. Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura), Red-tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis), Loggerhead Shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus), American Kestrels (Falco sparverius), Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), and Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) were seen in decreasing order of frequency of observation through the study period. Ravens, Red-tailed Hawks, Loggerhead Shrikes, American Kestrels, and Prairie Falcons were seen throughout the year. Turkey Vultures were not present during winter months, while Golden Eagles were seen only during November and December. Turkey Vultures, Red-tailed Hawks, and ravens were most numerous on agricultural lands, while Loggerhead Shrikes were most Common at urban areas. Raven numbers increased with increasing number of linear rights-of-way parallel to the survey route. Perching was the most common behavior type, although Turkey Vultures and ravens were often observed soaring, flying, or standing on the ground near highways. Transmission powerline towers and telephone poles were used as perch sites disproportionately to availability.

  19. Seasonal associations with urban light pollution for nocturnally migrating bird populations.

    PubMed

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Buler, Jeffrey J; Farnsworth, Andrew; Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A

    2017-11-01

    The spatial extent and intensity of artificial light at night (ALAN) has increased worldwide through the growth of urban environments. There is evidence that nocturnally migrating birds are attracted to ALAN, and there is evidence that nocturnally migrating bird populations are more likely to occur in urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn. Here, we test if urban sources of ALAN are responsible, at least in part, for these observed urban associations. We use weekly estimates of diurnal occurrence and relative abundance for 40 nocturnally migrating bird species that breed in forested environments in North America to assess how associations with distance to urban areas and ALAN are defined across the annual cycle. Migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with shorter distances to urban areas during migration, and stronger than expected association with higher levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas during migration. These patterns were more pronounced during autumn migration, especially within urban areas. Outside of the two migration periods, migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with longer distances to urban areas, especially during the nonbreeding season, and weaker than expected associations with the highest levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas. These findings suggest that ALAN is associated with higher levels of diurnal abundance along the boundaries and within the interior of urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn when juveniles are undertaking their first migration journey. These findings support the conclusion that urban sources of ALAN can broadly effect migratory behavior, emphasizing the need to better understand the implications of ALAN for migratory bird populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Population dynamics of land bird populations on Oahu, Hawaii: fifty years of introductions and competition

    Treesearch

    C. John Ralph

    1991-01-01

    Data from the annual Christmas Bird Count between 1939 and 1989, around Honolulu, on the island of Oahu during late December, were analyzed to discover the annual rates of change and possible competitive interactions of introduced and native land bird species. Both total number of species and total number of individuals increased over the period. The proportion of...

  1. Marked host specificity and lack of phylogeographic population structure of Campylobacter jejuni in wild birds.

    PubMed

    Griekspoor, Petra; Colles, Frances M; McCarthy, Noel D; Hansbro, Philip M; Ashhurst-Smith, Chris; Olsen, Björn; Hasselquist, Dennis; Maiden, Martin C J; Waldenström, Jonas

    2013-03-01

    Zoonotic pathogens often infect several animal species, and gene flow among populations infecting different host species may affect the biological traits of the pathogen including host specificity, transmissibility and virulence. The bacterium Campylobacter jejuni is a widespread zoonotic multihost pathogen, which frequently causes gastroenteritis in humans. Poultry products are important transmission vehicles to humans, but the bacterium is common in other domestic and wild animals, particularly birds, which are a potential infection source. Population genetic studies of C. jejuni have mainly investigated isolates from humans and domestic animals, so to assess C. jejuni population structure more broadly and investigate host adaptation, 928 wild bird isolates from Europe and Australia were genotyped by multilocus sequencing and compared to the genotypes recovered from 1366 domestic animal and human isolates. Campylobacter jejuni populations from different wild bird species were distinct from each other and from those from domestic animals and humans, and the host species of wild bird was the major determinant of C. jejuni genotype, while geographic origin was of little importance. By comparison, C. jejuni differentiation was restricted between more phylogenetically diverse farm animals, indicating that domesticated animals may represent a novel niche for C. jejuni and thereby driving the evolution of those bacteria as they exploit this niche. Human disease is dominated by isolates from this novel domesticated animal niche.

  2. Are populations of neotropical migrant birds limited in summer or winter? implications for management

    Treesearch

    Thomas W. Sherry; Richard T. Holmes

    1993-01-01

    Understanding where in their annual cycle Neotropical-Nearctic migrant bird populations are limited is essential for developing effective management and conservation policies. A review of currently available information indicates that these long-distance migrant species may be limited by events and circumstances in both summer and winter, and possibly on migration as...

  3. Marked host specificity and lack of phylogeographic population structure of Campylobacter jejuni in wild birds

    PubMed Central

    Griekspoor, Petra; Colles, Frances M; McCarthy, Noel D; Hansbro, Philip M; Ashhurst-Smith, Chris; Olsen, Björn; Hasselquist, Dennis; Maiden, Martin C J; Waldenström, Jonas

    2013-01-01

    Zoonotic pathogens often infect several animal species, and gene flow among populations infecting different host species may affect the biological traits of the pathogen including host specificity, transmissibility and virulence. The bacterium Campylobacter jejuni is a widespread zoonotic multihost pathogen, which frequently causes gastroenteritis in humans. Poultry products are important transmission vehicles to humans, but the bacterium is common in other domestic and wild animals, particularly birds, which are a potential infection source. Population genetic studies of C. jejuni have mainly investigated isolates from humans and domestic animals, so to assess C. jejuni population structure more broadly and investigate host adaptation, 928 wild bird isolates from Europe and Australia were genotyped by multilocus sequencing and compared to the genotypes recovered from 1366 domestic animal and human isolates. Campylobacter jejuni populations from different wild bird species were distinct from each other and from those from domestic animals and humans, and the host species of wild bird was the major determinant of C. jejuni genotype, while geographic origin was of little importance. By comparison, C. jejuni differentiation was restricted between more phylogenetically diverse farm animals, indicating that domesticated animals may represent a novel niche for C. jejuni and thereby driving the evolution of those bacteria as they exploit this niche. Human disease is dominated by isolates from this novel domesticated animal niche. PMID:23356487

  4. Bird populations in logged and unlogged western larch/Douglas-fir forest in northwestern Montana

    Treesearch

    Bret W. Tobalske; Raymond C. Shearer; Richard L. Hutto

    1991-01-01

    Of 32 species of abundant breeding birds, populations of 10 species differed significantly between small cutting units and adjacent uncut forest. Foliage foragers and tree gleaners were less abundant in cutting units, while flycatching species and ground foragers were more common there. Of nesting guilds, conifer tree nesters were least abundant in cutting units, and...

  5. Seasonal distribution of bird populations at the Patuxent Research Refuge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoffman, D.J.; Henny, C.J.; Hill, E.F.; Keith, J.A.; Grove, R.A.

    2000-01-01

    High concentrations of mercury from past mining activities have accumulated in the food chain of fish-eating birds nesting along the mid to lower Carson River. Activities of nine plasma and tissue enzymes, and concentrations of other plasma and tissue constituents were measured for black-crowned night-heron, Nycticorax nycticorax, (BCNH) and snowy egret, Egretta thula, (SE) nestlings from two high mercury sites and one low mercury site. Geometric mean blood Hg concentrations for BCNHs at the high mercury sites were 2.6 and 2.8 ppm (ww) and 0.6 ppm at the low mercury site. Blood concentrations for SEs were 3.6 and 1.9 ppm at the high mercury sites and 0.7 ppm at the low mercury site. In BCNHs plasma glutathione peroxidase (GSH peroxidase) activity was lower in both high mercury sites relative to the low mercury site. Butyryl cholinesterase (BuChe), ALT, glutathione reductase (GSSG-reductase) and LDH-L activities were lower in one high mercury site. In SEs significant differences were lower BuChe and LDH-L, but elevated GGT activities. Evidence of renal stress in both species at high mercury sites included increased plasma uric acid, blood urea nitrogen, and creatinine concentrations as well as oxidative stress in the kidney tissue itself where oxidized glutathione increased. A number of the mercury site-related effects, including decreased plasma GSH-peroxidase and hepatic G-6-PDH activities, higher GSSG-reductase activity, and lower hepatic concentrations of reduced thiols have been reported in methylmercury feeding studies with great egrets and mallards. These findings suggest the utility of herons and egrets for monitoring mercury sites.

  6. Population trends for common prairie pothole carnivores

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenwood, Raymond J.; Sovada, Marsha A.; Mac, M.J.; Opler, P.A.; Puckett Haecker, C. E.; Doran, P.D.

    1998-01-01

    Since settlement of the prairie pothole region of the northern Great Plains by Europeans in the late 1800’s, carnivore populations have changed considerably—mostly due to habitat alteration and humaninflicted mortality. At least 19 species of carnivorous mammals once occurred in the prairie pothole region (Jones et al. 1983). Presently, only eight are common throughout the region—coyote, red fox, raccoon, American badger, striped skunk, mink, ermine, and long-tailed weasel (Sargeant et al. 1993). Other species that occur locally or intermittently are mountain lion, lynx, bobcat, gray wolf, gray fox, swift fox, spotted skunk, and least weasel. Grizzly bears, wolverines, and river otters once occurred in the region but are now extirpated. Competition among species affects the distribution of coyotes, wolves, and foxes (Carbyn 1982; Rudzinski et al. 1982; Sargeant et al. 1987; Bailey 1992). These larger canids are keystone species that suppress the distribution of smaller canids (Johnson and Sargeant 1977; Dekker 1989; Johnson et al. 1989).

  7. The effects of predation by wading birds (Ardeidae) and blue crabs ( Callinectes sapidus) on the population size structure of the common mummichog, Fundulus heteroclitus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kneib, R. T.

    1982-02-01

    Preliminary observations suggested that predation by herons and egretsaffected the size structure of a mummichog ( Fundulus heteroclitus) population in Tar Landing Marsh, North Carolina. The hypothesis was tested by placing 300 mummichogs represented equally in three size classes into each half of an enclosed, divided, high marsh pool. Nylon cord was strung in a grid over one side to inhibit predation by wading birds. Although mummichog losses were higher in the side of the pool which was open to bird predation, the same trend in size-specific losses also occurred in the bird-exclusion side. Repeating the experiment after the removal of several blue crabs ( Callinectes sapidus) improved mummichog survivorship and suggested that crabs and not birds were responsible for the fish losses previously observed. In a final experiment, birds were excluded and crabs were removed from one side but added to the other side of the pool. After 24 days losses due to C. sapidus occurred in all mummichog size classes, but size-specific predation by blue crabs produced the highest losses (90%) among the largest (>70 mm total length) fish. Blue crab predation on mummichog populations may influence the community structure of salt marsh infauna and may also function in the movement of marsh production to open coastal waters.

  8. The Natural Reservoirs of Salmonella Enteritidis in Populations of Wild Birds

    PubMed Central

    Obukhovska, Olga

    2013-01-01

    Objective The aim of our study was to identify possible natural reservoirs of Salmonella Enteritidis among wild birds. Introduction Salmonella Enteritidis is dangerous for human due the reason of toxicoinfaction. These pathogen demonstrate high virulence for small children and people with chronic pathologies and can causes people die. The main source of infection to humans is birds (poultry and wild). Wild birds represent the natural reservoir of same bacterial pathogens. It is known that Salmonella can occupy an intestinal tract of birds. This colonization in general is constant, sometimes proceeds with an alternating fever, and usually, without clinical signs. Infected birds can transmit pathogens to other isolates in close contact. This usually occurs on the nesting during seasonal migrations. In the southern region of Ukraine are several points of intersection of migration routes of wild birds on the way from Europe to Africa and Asia (National Park “Askania Nova”and others). Methods The study was conducted in populations of wild birds in National Park “Askania Nova” and peninsula “Arabat arrow” (the Azov Sea coast). From bird selected samples of blood serum and egg yolks for research in serum plate agglutination test (SPA) and litter samples for bacteriological research. Results The serological monitoring in populations of wild waterfowl in National Park “Askania Nova” (Ichthyaetus relictus, Sterna nilotica, Sterna herundo, Casarca ferruginea) has shown the presence of seropozitive individuals in adult birds (average 18%) and egg yolks (avarrage 12%). The bacteriological investigations confirmed circulation of Salmonella in this group of birds. 32.3% of all bacterial pathogens was Salmonella and more then half of them was the reprezentatives of serovar Salmonella Enteritidis. Similar studies were conducted on territory of peninsula “Arabat arrow” (the Azov Sea coast). The serological monitoring among of wild waterfowl (Ardea cinerea, Sterna

  9. Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird

    PubMed Central

    Arlt, Debora; Forslund, Pär; Jeppsson, Tobias; Pärt, Tomas

    2008-01-01

    Background To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use) types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands) displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log λs: −0.332, −0.429, −0.168, respectively), that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log λs: −0.056, +0.081, −0.059). Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE). Conclusions/Significance Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands. PMID:18714351

  10. Comparison of methods for estimating bird abundance and trends from historical count data

    Treesearch

    Frank R. Thompson; Frank A. La Sorte

    2008-01-01

    The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches...

  11. Effects of fire on bird populations in mixed-grass prairie: Chapter 8

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Douglas H.; Knopf, F.L.; Samson, F.B.

    1997-01-01

    The mixed-grass prairie is one of the largest ecosystems in North America, originally covering about 69 million hectares (Bragg and Steuter 1995). Although much of the natural vegetation has been replaced by cropland and other uses (Samson and Knopf 1994, Bragg and Steuter 1995), significant areas have been preserved in national wildlife refuges, waterfowl production areas, state game management areas, and nature preserves. Mixed-grass prairie evolved with fire (Bragg 1995), and fire is frequently used as a management tool for prairie (Berkey et al. 1993). Much of the mixed-grass prairie that has been protected is managed to enhance the reproductive success of waterfowl and other gamebirds, but nongame birds now are receiving increasing emphasis. Despite the importance of the area to numerous species of birds and the aggressive management applied to many sites, relatively little is known about the effects of fire on the suitability of mixed-grass prairie for breeding birds. Several studies have examined effects of fire on breeding birds in the tallgrass prairie (e.g., Tester and Marshall 1961, Eddleman 1974, Halvorsen and Anderson 1983, Westenmeier and Buhnerkempe 1983, Zimmerman 1992, Herkert 1994), in western sagebrush grasslands (Peterson and Best 1987), and in shrubsteppe (Bock and Bock 1987). Studies of fire effects in the mixed-grass prairie are limited. Huber and Steuter (1984) examined the effects on birds during the breeding season following an early-May prescribed burn on a 122-ha site in South Dakota. They contrasted the bird populations on that site to those on a nearby 462-ha unburned site that had been lightly grazed by bison (Bison bison). Pylypec (1991) monitored breeding bird populations occurring in fescue prairies of Canada on a single 12.9-ha burned area and on an adjacent 5.6-ha unburned fescue prairie for three years after a prescribed burn. This chapter describes the effects of prescribed fire on common terrestrial birds at a mixed

  12. Quantifying the Detrimental Impacts of Land-Use and Management Change on European Forest Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Wade, Amy S. I.; Barov, Boris; Burfield, Ian J.; Gregory, Richard D.; Norris, Ken; Butler, Simon J.

    2013-01-01

    The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health. PMID:23704997

  13. The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

    2011-01-01

    We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  14. Very Low Population Structure in a Highly Mobile and Wide-Ranging Endangered Bird Species

    PubMed Central

    Kvistad, Lynna; Ingwersen, Dean; Pavlova, Alexandra; Bull, James K.; Sunnucks, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The loss of biodiversity following fragmentation and degradation of habitat is a major issue in conservation biology. As competition for resources increases following habitat loss and fragmentation, severe population declines may occur even in common, highly mobile species; such demographic decline may cause changes within the population structure of the species. The regent honeyeater, Anthochaera phrygia, is a highly nomadic woodland bird once common in its native southeast Australia. It has experienced a sharp decline in abundance since the late 1970s, following clearing of large areas of its preferred habitat, box-ironbark woodland, within the last 200 years. A captive breeding program has been established as part of efforts to restore this species. This study used genetic data to examine the range-wide population structure of regent honeyeaters, including spatial structure, its change through time, sex differences in philopatry and mobility, and genetic differences between the captive and wild populations. There was low genetic differentiation between birds captured in different geographic areas. Despite the recent demographic decline, low spatial structure appears to have some temporal consistency. Both sexes appear to be highly mobile, and there does not seem to be significant genetic differentiation between the captive and wild populations. We conclude that management efforts for survival of this species, including habitat protection, restoration, and release of captive-bred birds into the wild, can treat the species as effectively a single genetic population. PMID:26649426

  15. Very Low Population Structure in a Highly Mobile and Wide-Ranging Endangered Bird Species.

    PubMed

    Kvistad, Lynna; Ingwersen, Dean; Pavlova, Alexandra; Bull, James K; Sunnucks, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The loss of biodiversity following fragmentation and degradation of habitat is a major issue in conservation biology. As competition for resources increases following habitat loss and fragmentation, severe population declines may occur even in common, highly mobile species; such demographic decline may cause changes within the population structure of the species. The regent honeyeater, Anthochaera phrygia, is a highly nomadic woodland bird once common in its native southeast Australia. It has experienced a sharp decline in abundance since the late 1970s, following clearing of large areas of its preferred habitat, box-ironbark woodland, within the last 200 years. A captive breeding program has been established as part of efforts to restore this species. This study used genetic data to examine the range-wide population structure of regent honeyeaters, including spatial structure, its change through time, sex differences in philopatry and mobility, and genetic differences between the captive and wild populations. There was low genetic differentiation between birds captured in different geographic areas. Despite the recent demographic decline, low spatial structure appears to have some temporal consistency. Both sexes appear to be highly mobile, and there does not seem to be significant genetic differentiation between the captive and wild populations. We conclude that management efforts for survival of this species, including habitat protection, restoration, and release of captive-bred birds into the wild, can treat the species as effectively a single genetic population.

  16. Comparison of neotropical winter bird populations in isolated patches versus extensive forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.A.; Dawson, D.K.; Colon, J.; Espinoza, F.; Rodriguez, J.; Sutton, R.; Vargas, T.

    1987-01-01

    Wintering birds were captured with mist nets at 12 pairs of forested sites in the New World tropics in 1984 and 1985 to compare populations in small isolated woodlands (generally 5-50 ha) with those in extensive forests (> 1,000 ha). Net-hours of effort were similar in large and small sites, as were total birds captured and banded, but species composition was very different. Members of the Todidae, Dendrocolaptidae, Formicariidae and Thraupinae were significantly more common in extensive forest than in small isolated tracts, indicating that these birds are especially vulnerable to effects of forest fragmentation. However, in winter many species of North American migrants, even species that are restricted to extensive forest during the breeding season, were just as common in small forest fragments as in extensive forest. A high percentage of the North American migrants banded in January 1984 (40 to 50 % for some species) were recaptured in 1985.

  17. Trends in spawning populations of Pacific anadromous salmonids

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Konkel, G.W.; McIntyre, J.D.

    1987-01-01

    Annual escapement records for 1968-1984 for five species of Pacific salmon-chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho (O. kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), pink (O. gorbuscha), and chum (O. keta)—and steelhead (Salmo gairdneri) were obtained from published and unpublished sources and organized in a computer database. More than 25,500 escapement records were obtained for more than 1,100 locations throughout Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Escapement trends for naturally reproducing populations for which data were available for at least 7 years from 1968 to 1984 and at least 4 years from 1975 to 1984 were analyzed by linear regression. Significant trends were observed in about 30% of the 886 populations examined. Trends were summarized by species for three geographic regions in Alaska and four in the Pacific Northwest (including California). For chinook, sockeye, and pink salmon, trends were predominantly increasing in the Alaska regions and either lacking or predominantly decreasing in most of the Pacific Northwest regions; for coho and chum salmon, trends were predominantly decreasing in one or more Alaska regions as well as in most of the Pacific Northwest regions. For steelhead, too few populations were examined to enable us to characterize trends throughout their range. Among the 657 salmonid populations excluded from the trend analysis because the data sets were incomplete, 13 (of which 2 were in Alaska) declined to zero during the period of analysis. For coho, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon and steelhead, major data gaps were revealed by a comparison of the geographic distribution of escapement records with the spawning distribution of the species. For chinook salmon, escapement records were more geographically representative of the spawning distribution.

  18. The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations.

    PubMed

    Ahas, Rein; Aasa, Anto

    2006-09-01

    This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5-20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10-30 days in the spring period. Estonia's average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.

  19. Nonrandom dispersal drives phenotypic divergence within a bird population

    PubMed Central

    Camacho, Carlos; Canal, David; Potti, Jaime

    2013-01-01

    Gene flow through dispersal has traditionally been thought to function as a force opposing evolutionary differentiation. However, directional gene flow may actually reinforce divergence of populations in close proximity. This study documents the phenotypic differentiation over more than two decades in body size (tarsus length) at a very short spatial scale (1.1 km) within a population of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca inhabiting deciduous and coniferous habitats. Unlike females, males breeding in the deciduous forest were consistently larger than those from the managed coniferous forest. This assortment by size is likely explained by preset habitat preferences leading to dominance of the largest males and exclusion of the smallest ones toward the nonpreferred coniferous forest coupled with directional dispersal. Movements of males between forests were nonrandom with respect to body size and flow rate, which might function to maintain the phenotypic variation in this heritable trait at such a small spatial scale. However, a deeply rooted preference for the deciduous habitat might not be in line with its quality due to the increased levels of breeding density of hole-nesting competitors therein. These results illustrate how eco-evolutionary scenarios can develop under directional gene flow over surprisingly small spatial scales. Our findings come on top of recent studies concerning new ways in which dispersal and gene flow can influence microevolution. PMID:24363908

  20. European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options.

    PubMed

    Rees, Philip; van der Gaag, Nicole; de Beer, Joop; Heins, Frank

    2012-11-01

    Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35-40 % of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, but 55-70 % of the regions will see a labor force decline by 10 % or more. In most regions of Eastern Europe, the labor force may decrease by more than 30 %. To keep regions prosperous (maintaining competitiveness) and to avoid worse inequality (maintaining cohesion), policy-makers must find ways to cope with these challenges through new fiscal and social policies, though policies directly affecting demographic and migratory trends may also be needed.

  1. High urban population density of birds reflects their timing of urbanization.

    PubMed

    Møller, Anders Pape; Diaz, Mario; Flensted-Jensen, Einar; Grim, Tomas; Ibáñez-Álamo, Juan Diego; Jokimäki, Jukka; Mänd, Raivo; Markó, Gábor; Tryjanowski, Piotr

    2012-11-01

    Living organisms generally occur at the highest population density in the most suitable habitat. Therefore, invasion of and adaptation to novel habitats imply a gradual increase in population density, from that at or below what was found in the ancestral habitat to a density that may reach higher levels in the novel habitat following adaptation to that habitat. We tested this prediction of invasion biology by analyzing data on population density of breeding birds in their ancestral rural habitats and in matched nearby urban habitats that have been colonized recently across a continental latitudinal gradient. We estimated population density in the two types of habitats using extensive point census bird counts, and we obtained information on the year of urbanization when population density in urban habitats reached levels higher than that of the ancestral rural habitat from published records and estimates by experienced ornithologists. Both the difference in population density between urban and rural habitats and the year of urbanization were significantly repeatable when analyzing multiple populations of the same species across Europe. Population density was on average 30 % higher in urban than in rural habitats, although density reached as much as 100-fold higher in urban habitats in some species. Invasive urban bird species that colonized urban environments over a long period achieved the largest increases in population density compared to their ancestral rural habitats. This was independent of whether species were anciently or recently urbanized, providing a unique cross-validation of timing of urban invasions. These results suggest that successful invasion of urban habitats was associated with gradual adaptation to these habitats as shown by a significant increase in population density in urban habitats over time.

  2. Challenge infection as a means of determining the rate of disease resistant Trichomonas gallinae-free birds in a population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kocan, R.M.; Knisley, J.O.

    1970-01-01

    Trichomonas gallinae-free pigeons and mourning doves were infected with the Jones' Barn strain of T. gallinae to determine the rate of disease resistant T. gallinae-free birds in each population. Although all birds became infected 88% of the pigeons were resistant to trichomoniasis while 82% of the mourning doves were resistant. It was concluded that these birds had been previously infected and spontaneously lost their trichomonad fauna while retaining their resistance to fatal infection.

  3. Population genetic structure and long-distance dispersal of a recently expanding migratory bird.

    PubMed

    Ramos, Raül; Song, Gang; Navarro, Joan; Zhang, Ruiying; Symes, Craig T; Forero, Manuela G; Lei, Fumin

    2016-06-01

    Long-distance dispersal events and their derivable increases of genetic diversity have been highlighted as important ecological and evolutionary determinants that improve performances of range-expanding species. In the context of global environmental change, specific dispersal strategies have to be understood and foreseen if we like to prevent general biodiversity impoverishment or the spread of allochthonous diseases. We explored the genetic structure and potential population mixing on the recently range-expanding European bee-eater Merops apiaster. In addition, the species is suspected of harbouring and disseminating the most relevant disease for bees and apiculture, Nosema microsporidia. In agreement with complementary ringing recovery data and morphometric measurements, genetic results on two mitochondrial genes and 12 microsatellites showed a reasonably well-structured population partitioning along its breeding distribution. Microsatellite results indicated that not only did a few birds recently disperse long distance during their return migrations and change their natal breeding areas, but also that a group of allochthonous birds together founded a new colony. Although we did not provide evidence on the direct implication of birds in the widespread of Nosema parasites, our finding on the long-distance dispersal of bird flocks between remote breeding colonies adds concern about the role of European bee-eaters in the spread of such disease at a large, inter-continental scale.

  4. Breeding Bird Survey and bird banding data: Applications to raptor research and management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.; Bystrak, D.

    1991-01-01

    The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) are sources of information for raptor biologists. The BBS has been conducted each year since 1966 in the United States and Canada; historical bird banding records extend back to the early 20th century. BBS data can be used to document population trends and breeding distributions of many bird species. Banding data are generally collected for specific and local studies of bird populations or behavior. Past use of these data has been limited by their volume and relative inaccessibility. In this paper, we present an overview of BBS and BBL raptor data and their uses, limitations and availability.

  5. The early bird gets the shrimp: confronting assumptions of isotopic equilibrium and homogeneity in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Wunder, Michael B; Jehl, Joseph R; Stricker, Craig A

    2012-11-01

    1. Because stable isotope distributions in organic material vary systematically across energy gradients that exist in ecosystems, community and population structures, and in individual physiological systems, isotope values in animal tissues have helped address a broad range of questions in animal ecology. It follows that every tissue sample provides an isotopic profile that can be used to study dietary or movement histories of individual animals. Interpretations of these profiles depend on the assumption that metabolic pools are isotopically well mixed and in equilibrium with dietary resources prior to tissue synthesis, and they extend to the population level by assuming isotope profiles are identically distributed for animals using the same proximal dietary resource. As these assumptions are never fully met, studying structure in the variance of tissue isotope values from wild populations is informative. 2. We studied variation in δ(13) C, δ(15) N, δ(2) H and δ(18) O data for feathers from a population of eared grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) that migrate to Great Salt Lake each fall to moult feathers. During this time, they cannot fly and feed almost exclusively on superabundant brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana). The ecological simplicity of this situation minimized the usual spatial and trophic complexities often present in natural studies of feather isotope values. 3. Ranges and variances of isotope values for the feathers were larger than those from previously published studies that report feather isotopic variance, but they were bimodally distributed in all isotope dimensions. Isotope values for proximal dietary resources and local surface water show that some of the feathers we assumed to have been grown locally must have been grown before birds reached isotopic equilibrium with local diet or immediately prior to arrival at Great Salt Lake. 4. Our study provides novel insights about resource use strategies in eared grebes during migration. More generally

  6. The early bird gets the shrimp: Confronting assumptions of isotopic equilibrium and homogeneity in a wild bird population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wunder, Michael B.; Jehl, Joseph R.; Stricker, Craig A.

    2012-01-01

    1. Because stable isotope distributions in organic material vary systematically across energy gradients that exist in ecosystems, community and population structures, and in individual physiological systems, isotope values in animal tissues have helped address a broad range of questions in animal ecology. It follows that every tissue sample provides an isotopic profile that can be used to study dietary or movement histories of individual animals. Interpretations of these profiles depend on the assumption that metabolic pools are isotopically well mixed and in equilibrium with dietary resources prior to tissue synthesis, and they extend to the population level by assuming isotope profiles are identically distributed for animals using the same proximal dietary resource. As these assumptions are never fully met, studying structure in the variance of tissue isotope values from wild populations is informative. 2. We studied variation in δ13C, δ15N, δ2H and δ18O data for feathers from a population of eared grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) that migrate to Great Salt Lake each fall to moult feathers. During this time, they cannot fly and feed almost exclusively on superabundant brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana). The ecological simplicity of this situation minimized the usual spatial and trophic complexities often present in natural studies of feather isotope values. 3. Ranges and variances of isotope values for the feathers were larger than those from previously published studies that report feather isotopic variance, but they were bimodally distributed in all isotope dimensions. Isotope values for proximal dietary resources and local surface water show that some of the feathers we assumed to have been grown locally must have been grown before birds reached isotopic equilibrium with local diet or immediately prior to arrival at Great Salt Lake. 4. Our study provides novel insights about resource use strategies in eared grebes during migration. More generally, it

  7. Population trends influence species ability to track climate change

    Treesearch

    Joel Ralston; William V. DeLuca; Richard E. Feldman; David I. King

    2016-01-01

    Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche...

  8. Birds, Birds, Birds!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Braus, Judy, Ed.

    1992-01-01

    Ranger Rick's Nature Scope is a creative education series dedicated to inspiring in children an understanding and appreciation of the natural world while developing the skills they will need to make responsible decisions about the environment. Contents are organized into the following sections: (1) "What Makes a Bird a Bird?," which…

  9. Birds, Birds, Birds!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Braus, Judy, Ed.

    1992-01-01

    Ranger Rick's Nature Scope is a creative education series dedicated to inspiring in children an understanding and appreciation of the natural world while developing the skills they will need to make responsible decisions about the environment. Contents are organized into the following sections: (1) "What Makes a Bird a Bird?," which…

  10. Emerging Infectious Disease Leads to Rapid Population Declines of Common British Birds

    PubMed Central

    Toms, Mike P.; Peck, Kirsi M.; Kirkwood, James K.; Chantrey, Julian; Clatworthy, Innes R.; Evans, Andy D.; Hughes, Laura A.; Hutchinson, Oliver C.; John, Shinto K.; Pennycott, Tom W.; Perkins, Matthew W.; Rowley, Peter S.; Simpson, Vic R.; Tyler, Kevin M.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

    2010-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period. PMID:20805869

  11. Surveys of forest bird populations found in the vicinity of proposed geothermal project subzones in the district of Puna, Hawaii

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobi, J.D.; Reynolds, M.; Ritchotte, G.; Nielsen, B.; Viggiano, A.; Dwyer, J.

    1994-10-01

    This report presents data on the distribution and status of forest bird species found within the vicinity of proposed geothermal resource development on the Island of Hawaii. Potential impacts of the proposed development on the native bird populations found in the project are are addressed.

  12. Climate warming, ecological mismatch at arrival and population decline in migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Rubolini, Diego; von Hardenberg, Jost; Provenzale, Antonello; Hüppop, Kathrin; Hüppop, Ommo; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lehikoinen, Esa; Rainio, Kalle; Romano, Maria; Sokolov, Leonid

    2011-03-22

    Climate is changing at a fast pace, causing widespread, profound consequences for living organisms. Failure to adjust the timing of life-cycle events to climate may jeopardize populations by causing ecological mismatches to the life cycle of other species and abiotic factors. Population declines of some migratory birds breeding in Europe have been suggested to depend on their inability to adjust migration phenology so as to keep track of advancement of spring events at their breeding grounds. In fact, several migrants have advanced their spring arrival date, but whether such advancement has been sufficient to compensate for temporal shift in spring phenophases or, conversely, birds have become ecologically mismatched, is still an unanswered question, with very few exceptions. We used a novel approach based on accumulated winter and spring temperatures (degree-days) as a proxy for timing of spring biological events to test if the progress of spring at arrival to the breeding areas by 117 European migratory bird species has changed over the past five decades. Migrants, and particularly those wintering in sub-Saharan Africa, now arrive at higher degree-days and may have therefore accumulated a 'thermal delay', thus possibly becoming increasingly mismatched to spring phenology. Species with greater 'thermal delay' have shown larger population decline, and this evidence was not confounded by concomitant ecological factors or by phylogenetic effects. These findings provide general support to the largely untested hypotheses that migratory birds are becoming ecologically mismatched and that failure to respond to climate change can have severe negative impacts on their populations. The novel approach we adopted can be extended to the analysis of ecological consequences of phenological response to climate change by other taxa.

  13. Lifespan is unrelated to investment in reproduction in populations of mammals and birds in captivity.

    PubMed

    Ricklefs, Robert E; Cadena, Carlos Daniel

    2007-10-01

    We examined the relationship between number of offspring produced to a certain age and subsequent longevity in captive zoo populations of 18 species of mammal and 12 species of bird. The age cut-offs in each analysis were set to include 50%, 75% and 90% of the offspring produced in each of the population samples. Only one of 68 regressions was significant, and its slope was positive. In addition, we examined the relationship between age at first reproduction up to a certain age and longevity after that age, generally 5 years (3-8), among 17 species of mammal and 12 species of bird. Only one of these regressions had a significantly positive slope, indicating that early reproduction rarely reduces lifespan. Overall, we found no evidence that producing offspring in a zoo environment influences the age at death. Thus, although trade-offs might apply in natural populations under resource limitation, neither pregnancy, growth of the foetus and lactation in mammals, nor egg production in birds, reduces lifespan in the absence of such stress. If genetically based or other intrinsic antagonistic pleiotropy underlies the evolution of senescence, it was not evident in our analyses.

  14. Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.

    PubMed

    Bertram, Douglas F; Drever, Mark C; McAllister, Murdoch K; Schroeder, Bernard K; Lindsay, David J; Faust, Deborah A

    2015-01-01

    Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as 'Threatened' by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996-2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend ('year effects'), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey.

  15. Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, Bernard K.; Lindsay, David J.; Faust, Deborah A.

    2015-01-01

    Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as ‘Threatened’ by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996–2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend (‘year effects’), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey. PMID:26258803

  16. Model to track wild birds for avian influenza by means of population dynamics and surveillance information.

    PubMed

    Alba, Anna; Bicout, Dominique J; Vidal, Francesc; Curcó, Antoni; Allepuz, Alberto; Napp, Sebastián; García-Bocanegra, Ignacio; Costa, Taiana; Casal, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV.

  17. Population dynamics of neotropical migratory birds using agriculture-forest mosaics in Campeche, Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, M.H.; Berlanga, M.; Dawson, D.; Wood, P.; Sauer, J.; Robbins, C.S.; Wilson, Marcia H.; Sader, Steven A.

    1995-01-01

    In many areas of the tropics, forests are being converted to agriculture and other uses at a rapid rate. Previous research has documented that forest-breeding migratory birds are distributed across a wide variety of habitat types during midwinter. However, to evaluate the relative importance of different habitat types to wintering birds, we need to examine habitat-specific estimates of survival. During the winter of 1992-1993, mist nets, observations of individually marked birds and point counts were used to sample bird populations in a pasture-forest mosaic in southern Mexico. Sampling was conducted four times throughout the winter on a total of six grids. Twenty nets were run for two days in each grid. A total of 129 species were captured and 3,585 individuals banded. Neotropical migrants made up 31% of the species captured and 47% of the individuals banded. The banding data were used to estimate species richness for permanent and winter residents in different habitats and at different time periods. Capture-recapture models were used to estimate overwintering survival for selected species.

  18. Model to Track Wild Birds for Avian Influenza by Means of Population Dynamics and Surveillance Information

    PubMed Central

    Alba, Anna; Bicout, Dominique J.; Vidal, Francesc; Curcó, Antoni; Allepuz, Alberto; Napp, Sebastián; García-Bocanegra, Ignacio; Costa, Taiana; Casal, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV. PMID:22952962

  19. [Mortality trends of Krasnoyarsk Region population from oncological diseases].

    PubMed

    Mazharov, V F; Gornyĭ, B E; Tikhonova, I V

    1991-01-01

    An increasing general trend in aging of population during the last decade stipulates the necessity to conduct a comparison (both in time and territory aspect) of either age-specific health indices or their standard variants because without age peculiarities of population during different years the results might be misrepresented. The data acquired in the course of the present study indicate that oncological morbidity of population in the Krasnoyarsk region in the majority of age and social groups (urban and rural inhabitants) not only have not increased but even dropped in 1989 as compared with 1959. One should be careful in assessing general indices of population health along with obligatory use of methods permitting to take into account the demographic peculiarities of population in the years compared.

  20. Brominated flame retardant trends in aquatic birds from the Salish Sea region of the west coast of North America, including a mini-review of recent trends in marine and estuarine birds.

    PubMed

    Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Guigueno, Mélanie F; Wilson, Laurie K; Lee, Sandi; Idrissi, Abde

    2015-01-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) increased in many matrices during the 1990s and early 2000s. Since voluntary restrictions and regulations on PBDEs were implemented in North America circa early 2000s, decreases in PBDEs have occurred in many of these same matrices. To examine temporal trends in the North Pacific, we retrospectively analysed PBDEs and eight non-PBDE flame retardants (FR) in eggs of two aquatic bird species, great blue herons, Ardea herodias, and double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus, collected along the British Columbia coast, Canada from 1979 to 2012. Increasing PBDE concentrations were observed in both species followed by significant decreases post-2000 for all dominant congeners and ΣPBDE. Non-PBDE FRs were generally undetected in cormorant eggs, or detected at very low levels in heron eggs, except for hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD). HBCDD, currently unregulated in North America, was not detected in early sampling years; however low concentrations were observed in both species in recent sampling years (2003-2012). Dietary tracers (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) did not change significantly over time, indicating that temporal changes in PBDEs are likely caused by implemented regulations. A comparison with recently published temporal trends of ΣPBDE in marine birds from North America and Europe is given.

  1. The effect of aggressiveness on the population dynamics of a territorial bird.

    PubMed

    Mougeot, F; Redpath, S M; Leckie, F; Hudson, P J

    2003-02-13

    A central issue in ecology lies in identifying the importance of resources, natural enemies and behaviour in the regulation of animal populations. Much of the debate on this subject has focused on animals that show cyclic fluctuations in abundance. However, there is still disagreement about the role of extrinsic (food, parasites or predators) and intrinsic (behaviour) factors in causing cycles. Recent studies have examined the impact of natural enemies, although spatial patterns resulting from restricted dispersal or recruitment are increasingly recognized as having the potential to influence unstable population dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that population cycles in a territorial bird, red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus, are caused by delayed density-dependent changes in the aggressiveness and spacing behaviour of males. Here we show that increasing aggressiveness experimentally for a short period in autumn reduced recruitment and subsequent breeding density by 50%, and changed population trajectories from increasing to declining. Intrinsic processes can therefore have fundamental effects on population dynamics.

  2. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    PubMed

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  3. Increasing Family Medicine Faculty Diversity Still Lags Population Trends.

    PubMed

    Xierali, Imam M; Nivet, Marc A; Gaglioti, Anne H; Liaw, Winston R; Bazemore, Andrew W

    Faculty diversity has important implications for medical student diversity. The purpose of this analysis is to describe trends in racial, ethnic, and gender diversity in family medicine (FM) departments and compare these trends to the diversity of matriculating medical students, the diversity of all medical school faculty, and the population in general. We used the Association of American Medical Colleges Faculty Roster to describe trends in proportions of female and minorities under-represented in medicine (URM) in FM department full-time faculty in U.S. MD-granting medical schools. Among FM faculty, the proportions of female and URM faculty have grown more than 2-fold between 1980 and 2015. Increasing faculty rank was associated with lower diversity across the study period. FM departments had higher female and URM proportions than the average of all other specialties, but URM representation still lagged population trends. Although FM faculty diversity is growing over time, continued attention to URM representation should remain a priority. © Copyright 2017 by the American Board of Family Medicine.

  4. Migratory bird hunter opinions regarding potential management strategies for controlling light goose populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dinges, Andrew J.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Vrtiska, Mark P.; Nilon, Charles H.; Wilhelm Stanis, Sonja A.

    2014-01-01

    We expanded the Nebraska Light Goose Conservation Order (LGCO) harvest survey (NE, USA) in spring 2012 to assess migratory bird hunter opinions regarding future management strategies for controlling light goose populations. Although hunters strongly agreed that population control of light geese was an important wildlife management issue, they were generally unsupportive of wildlife officials using forms of direct control methods to control light goose populations. Respondents who indicated participation in the 2012 LGCO were also less supportive of any form of direct control compared with migratory bird hunters who did not participate in the LGCO. When presented with alternative methods by wildlife officials for future light goose population control, respondents were most supportive of wildlife agencies selectively shooting light geese on migration and wintering areas and least supportive of wildlife officials using bait with approved chemicals to euthanize light geese. A clear understanding of public perception of various potential direct-control options will likely assist wildlife biologists in making informed decisions on how to proceed with population control of light geese.

  5. No Association between Personality and Candidate Gene Polymorphisms in a Wild Bird Population.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Hannah A; Hajduk, Gabriela K; Durieux, Gillian; Burke, Terry; Dugdale, Hannah L

    2015-01-01

    Consistency of between-individual differences in behaviour or personality is a phenomenon in populations that can have ecological consequences and evolutionary potential. One way that behaviour can evolve is to have a genetic basis. Identifying the molecular genetic basis of personality could therefore provide insight into how and why such variation is maintained, particularly in natural populations. Previously identified candidate genes for personality in birds include the dopamine receptor D4 (DRD4), and serotonin transporter (SERT). Studies of wild bird populations have shown that exploratory and bold behaviours are associated with polymorphisms in both DRD4 and SERT. Here we tested for polymorphisms in DRD4 and SERT in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis) population on Cousin Island, Seychelles, and then investigated correlations between personality and polymorphisms in these genes. We found no genetic variation in DRD4, but identified four polymorphisms in SERT that clustered into five haplotypes. There was no correlation between bold or exploratory behaviours and SERT polymorphisms/haplotypes. The null result was not due to lack of power, and indicates that there was no association between these behaviours and variation in the candidate genes tested in this population. These null findings provide important data to facilitate representative future meta-analyses on candidate personality genes.

  6. Relationships between nesting populations of wading birds and wetland habitat features

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erwin, R.M.; Spendelow, J.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Williams, B.K.

    1986-01-01

    We used data from censuses of wading bird colonies on the Atlantic coast from Maine to Florida {1976-1977) to examine relationships between population sizes of wading birds {herons, egrets, ibises) and 9 key habitat features. Variables included features of the colony site {island size, dimensions, isolation from adjacent land) and surrounding (5 km circle) potential feeding habitat {wetland area). Measurements were made on nautical charts using a planimeter. For 122 colonies on islands, 5 multivariate procedures were used. Because of high correlations among habitat variables, a reduced regression model using only 4 variables performed best. The only variable that approached statistical significance (P = 0.06) was land-water interface distance (i.e., wetland 'edge' within the 5 km circle centered on the colony site).

  7. First evidence and predictions of Plasmodium transmission in Alaskan bird populations.

    PubMed

    Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J; Cornel, Anthony J; Guers, Sue L; Dodge, Molly; Marzec, Timothy; Carlson, Jenny S; Seppi, Bruce; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2012-01-01

    The unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic climate is expected to have major impacts on the emergence of infectious diseases and host susceptibility to these diseases. It is predicted that malaria parasites will spread to both higher altitudes and latitudes with global warming. Here we show for the first time that avian Plasmodium transmission occurs in the North American Arctic. Over a latitudinal gradient in Alaska, from 61°N to 67°N, we collected blood samples of resident and migratory bird species. We found both residents and hatch year birds infected with Plasmodium as far north as 64°N, providing clear evidence that malaria transmission occurs in these climates. Based on our empirical data, we make the first projections of the habitat suitability for Plasmodium under a future-warming scenario in Alaska. These findings raise new concerns about the spread of malaria to naïve host populations.

  8. Assessment of bird populations in a high quality savanna/woodland: a banding approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilmore, Sandra L.; Glowacki, Gary A.; Grundel, Ralph

    2005-01-01

    During the course of this six year study, the fall migration capture rate declined significantly, suggesting that reduced productivity may have occurred in bird populations. There was a positive response during the spring migration to earlier spring wildfires, indicated by high capture rates in 2000 and 2002 that corresponded with fires affecting most of the bird banding net locations. For several common species found at the Miller Woods site, the ratio of juveniles to adults was compared to ratios at other banding stations in the north central U.S. Breeding site fidelity was documented for 20 species, all common breeders. Variation in capture rates among net locations demonstrated the role of the shrub layer within the savanna habitat mosaic during migration stopover.

  9. First Evidence and Predictions of Plasmodium Transmission in Alaskan Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J.; Cornel, Anthony J.; Guers, Sue L.; Dodge, Molly; Marzec, Timothy; Carlson, Jenny S.; Seppi, Bruce; Sehgal, Ravinder N. M.

    2012-01-01

    The unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic climate is expected to have major impacts on the emergence of infectious diseases and host susceptibility to these diseases. It is predicted that malaria parasites will spread to both higher altitudes and latitudes with global warming. Here we show for the first time that avian Plasmodium transmission occurs in the North American Arctic. Over a latitudinal gradient in Alaska, from 61°N to 67°N, we collected blood samples of resident and migratory bird species. We found both residents and hatch year birds infected with Plasmodium as far north as 64°N, providing clear evidence that malaria transmission occurs in these climates. Based on our empirical data, we make the first projections of the habitat suitability for Plasmodium under a future-warming scenario in Alaska. These findings raise new concerns about the spread of malaria to naïve host populations. PMID:23028595

  10. Populations and habitat use of marine birds in the Semidi Islands, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.; Hatch, Martha A.

    1983-01-01

    About one-quarter of the resident seabirds in the Gulf of Alaska breed on the Semidi Islands. In terms of biomass, the proportion is closer to one-third. The most abundant birds are Common and Thick-billed Murres, with a combined population exceeding 1 million birds. Hundreds of thousands of Horned Puffins breed in burrows on two islands. Other species numbering more than 100,000 individuals include the Northern Fulmar, Fork-tailed and Leach's Storm-Petrels, and possibly also the Black-legged Kittiwake and Tufted Puffin. Both species of storm-petrels commonly nest in side chambers of puffin burrows. Parasitic Jaegers nest in a loose colony on Chowiet Island. This behavior has not been reported elsewhere in the Gulf of Alaska. Red-faced and Pelagic Cormorants commonly change breeding colony location from year to year. The Semidi Islands are the easternmost breeding site for Least Auklets.

  11. On the stability of populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects.

    PubMed

    Sibly, Richard M; Barker, Daniel; Hone, Jim; Pagel, Mark

    2007-10-01

    A key concern for conservation biologists is whether populations of plants and animals are likely to fluctuate widely in number or remain relatively stable around some steady-state value. In our study of 634 populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects, we find that most can be expected to remain stable despite year to year fluctuations caused by environmental factors. Mean return rates were generally around one but were higher in insects (1.09 +/- 0.02 SE) and declined with body size in mammals. In general, this is good news for conservation, as stable populations are less likely to go extinct. However, the lower return rates of the large mammals may make them more vulnerable to extinction. Our estimates of return rates were generally well below the threshold for chaos, which makes it unlikely that chaotic dynamics occur in natural populations--one of ecology's key unanswered questions.

  12. Population trends and distribution of Common Murre Uria aalge colonies in Washington, 1996-2015

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Susan M; Lyons, James E.

    2017-01-01

    Periodic assessments of population trends and changes in spatial distribution are valuable for managing marine birds and their breeding habitats, particularly when evaluating long-term response to threats such as oil spills, predation pressure, and changing ocean conditions. We evaluated recent trends in abundance and distribution of the Common Murre Uria aalge within Copalis, Quillayute Needles, and Flattery Rocks National Wildlife Refuges, which include all murre colonies in Washington except one, off-refuge, on Tatoosh Island. In 1996-2001 and 2010-2015, aerial photographic surveys were conducted during the incubation phase (mid-June through mid-July) each year. Using images from film (1996-2001) and digital (2010-2015) cameras that included all parts of each colony, we manually counted murres. We estimated population trend as annual percent change in whole-colony counts using an overdispersed Poisson regression model. Overall, numbers of murres counted at breeding colonies in Washington increased by 8.8% per year (95% CI 3.0%-14.9%) during 1996–2015. The overall statewide increase was driven by an increase at colonies in northern Washington of approximately 11% per year (95% CI 4.5%-17.8%). Despite an increasing trend, abundance remains lower than levels in the late 1970s, and the spatial distribution has changed. Colonies in southern Washington - where murres were historically the most abundant - are no longer active, or only minimally so, whereas colonies in the north - which were rarely active in the early 1970s - are now the largest. There was high variability in spatial distribution among years, a pattern that indicates a need for coordinated monitoring and movement studies throughout the California Current System to understand dispersal and colonization. Our results indicate that future management of refuge islands could protect both current and historic colony locations, given the patterns of colony dynamics and the uncertainty about long-term effects

  13. Population genetics of Cryptosporidium meleagridis in humans and birds: evidence for cross-species transmission.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuanfei; Yang, Wenli; Cama, Vitaliano; Wang, Lin; Cabrera, Lilia; Ortega, Ynes; Bern, Caryn; Feng, Yaoyu; Gilman, Robert; Xiao, Lihua

    2014-07-01

    Population genetic studies have been used to understand the transmission of pathogens in humans and animals, especially the role of zoonotic infections and evolution and dispersal of virulent subtypes. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity and population structure of Cryptosporidium meleagridis, the only known Cryptosporidium species that infects both avian and mammalian hosts and is responsible for approximately 10% of human cryptosporidiosis in some areas. A total of 62 C. meleagridis specimens from children, AIDS patients, and birds in Lima, Peru were characterised by sequence analysis of the ssrRNA gene and five minisatellite, microsatellite and polymorphic markers in chromosome 6, including the 60 kDa glycoprotein (gp60), 47 kDa glycoprotein (CP47), a serine repeat antigen (MSC6-5), retinitis pigmentosa GTPase regulator (RPGR) and thrombospondin protein 8 (TSP8). The multilocus sequence analysis identified concurrent infections with Cryptosporidium hominis in four AIDS patients and three children. Unique subtypes of C. meleagridis ranged from eight at the gp60 locus (gene diversity -Hd=0.651), three at the RPGR (Hd=0.556), three at the MSC6-5 locus (Hd=0.242), two at TSP8 (Hd=0.198), to one at CP47 (monomorphic), much lower than that of C. hominis in the same area. Intragenic linkage disequilibrium was strong and complete at all gene loci. Intergenic linkage disequilibrium was highly significant (P<0.001) for all pairs of polymorphic loci. Two major groups of subtypes were seen, with most subtypes belonging to group 1. Within group 1, there was no clear population segregation, and two of the 14 multilocus subtypes of C. meleagridis were found in both AIDS patients and birds. We believe that these results provide the first evidence of a clonal population structure of C. meleagridis and the likely occurrence of cross-species transmission of C. meleagridis between birds and humans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Population declines in North American birds that migrate to the neotropics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Sauer, J.R.; Greenberg, R.S.; Droege, S.

    1989-01-01

    Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we determined that most neotropical migrant bird species that breed in forests of the eastern United States and Canada have recently (1978-1987) declined in abundance after a period of stable or increasing populations. Most permanent residents and temperate-zone migrants did not show a general pattern of decrease during this period. Field data from Mexico were used to classify a subset of the neotropical migrants as using forest or scrub habitats during winter. Population declines during 1978-1987 were significantly greater among the forest-wintering species, while populations of scrub-wintering species increased. The same subset of neotropical migrants also showed overall declines in forest-breeding species, but no significant differences existed between species breeding in forest and scrub habitats. Neotropical migrant species that primarily use forested habitats in either wintering or breeding areas are declining, but a statistically significant association between habitat and population declines was detected only in the tropics.

  15. Seasonal metabolic variation in two populations of an Afrotropical euplectid bird.

    PubMed

    van de Ven, Tanja M F N; Mzilikazi, Nomakwezi; McKechnie, Andrew E

    2013-01-01

    Many birds exhibit seasonal phenotypic flexibility in basal metabolic rate (BMR) and summit metabolism (M(sum)), but very little information is available for species from subtropical latitudes or for conspecific populations from sites that vary in climate. We measured body mass (M(b)), BMR, and M(sum) in summer and winter in two populations of the southern red bishop Euplectes orix, a passerine that is widespread in southern Africa. One population occurs at a comparatively warmer coastal site (mean daily minimum air temperature [T(a)] in midwinter, 8.3°C) and the other at a colder inland site (mean daily minimum T(a) in midwinter, -2.8°C). Bishops from both populations significantly increased M(b) in winter. However, seasonal metabolic adjustments differed considerably between the populations. The inland population significantly increased BMR by approximately 58%, mass-specific BMR by approximately 31%, and M(sum) by approximately 15% in winter, although mass-specific M(sum) did not change significantly. In contrast, the coastal population showed no significant seasonal change in BMR and significant winter reductions in mass-specific BMR (~15%), M(sum) (~8%), and mass-specific M(sum) (~15%). The interpopulation differences in the magnitude and direction of seasonal mass-specific BMR changes are qualitatively consistent with global patterns, although the increase shown by the inland population is larger than expected. Our data reveal that avian seasonal metabolic adjustments can vary greatly within subtropical species depending on the climatic conditions experienced by the birds, and our findings reiterate the need to better understand metabolic flexibility in species that inhabit lower latitudes.

  16. Older driver population and crash involvement trends, 1974-1988.

    PubMed

    Stutts, J C; Martell, C

    1992-08-01

    North Carolina motor vehicle crash data for even-numbered years 1974-1988, inclusive, are analyzed in conjunction with North Carolina population, licensed driver, and mileage data to examine trends in motor vehicle crash involvement by driver age, sex, and race. Crash rates per licensed driver are presented along with crash rates per estimated vehicle miles travelled calculated on the basis of induced exposure. Results focus particularly on older drivers. They show that older drivers' representation in the licensed driver population has increased at a greater rate than their representation in either the census or crash involvement populations. These trends are particularly strong for females and for nonwhites. Furthermore, crash rates have declined more for drivers aged 55 and older than for younger drivers. The greatest declines, both in terms of crashes per licensed driver and crashes per estimated miles travelled, have been experienced by drivers age 65 and older, particularly nonwhites. Males show higher overall crash rates per miles travelled than females, but this effect decreases with age and disappears entirely in the oldest age categories. Results are discussed in light of the changing nature of the overall driving population and the cohort of older drivers in particular.

  17. [Trends in smoking in an urban population over recent decades].

    PubMed

    Villalbí, Joan R; Bartoll, Xavier; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Borrell, Carme

    2016-05-06

    The objective of this study is to describe the distribution of smoking in the population and to assess changes and trends over recent decades. Cross sectional study in a sample of the non-institutionalized resident population (n=3,509) in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) using data from persons over 14 years of age from the health survey of 2011, and assessing trends for 1983-2011 using previous surveys. Dependent variables are having ever been a smoker, having quit, being a current smoker, and smoking daily. Independent variables include sex, age, and time. Prevalence and proportions are estimated, stratifying or adjusting for age. The prevalence of daily smokers is 18.8% in 2011: 22.2% for men and 15.9% for women. The age groups with higher smoking prevalence are 25-34 years for men and 15-24 for women. From 1983 to 2011 the reduction among men has been intense, and for women the prevalence has been decreasing since the survey of 2000. Among smokers, the proportion of both genders who do not smoke daily has increased. The smoking epidemic over the last years shows promising trends. The data do not lend support to the hardening hypothesis for current smokers. Smokers are a shrinking minority, although to improve public health it would be desirable to speed the process of change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. Mortality from cutaneous melanoma: evidence for contrasting trends between populations.

    PubMed

    Severi, G; Giles, G G; Robertson, C; Boyle, P; Autier, P

    2000-06-01

    In recent years several reports have been published concerning trends in melanoma mortality in different countries, some of which have indicated that rates are beginning to fall. Many of these reports, however, have been based on small populations and have used different forms of statistical analysis. Our objective was to analyse systematically to what degree the epidemic of melanoma mortality had evolved similarly in different populations and whether there were any divergent trends that might increase our understanding. Instead of using all available data, we focused on countries with a minimum time series of 30 years and a minimum of 100 deaths annually in at least one sex from melanoma. We first inspected sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates and then performed age-period-cohort modelling. We found that the increase in mortality observed after 1950 was more pronounced in the age group 60-79. Statistical modelling showed a general increase in mortality rates in generations born after the turn of the century. Downturns in mortality, essentially in women and starting with generations born just before World War II, were found in Australia (where the earliest decreases were noted), the Nordic countries and the USA. Small decreases in rates in more recent generations were found in the UK and Canada. However, in France, Italy and Czechoslovakia, mortality rates were seen to be still increasing in recent cohorts. Our analysis suggests that populations are at different places on the melanoma mortality epidemic curve. The three trend patterns we observed are in agreement with time differences between populations with respect to the promotion of sun protection and the surveillance of pigmented skin lesions.

  19. Power of sign surveys to monitor population trend

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, Katherine C.; Metzgar, Lee H.; Patterson, David A.; Steele, Brian M.

    1992-01-01

    The urgent need for an effective monitoring scheme for grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations led us to investigate the effort required to detect changes in populations of low—density dispersed animals, using sign (mainly scats and tracks) they leave on trails. We surveyed trails in Glacier National Park for bear tracks and scats during five consecutive years. Using these data, we modeled the occurrence of bear sign on trails, then estimated the power of various sampling schemes. Specifically, we explored the power of bear sign surveys to detect a 20% decline in sign occurrence. Realistic sampling schemes appear feasible if the density of sign is high enough, and we provide guidelines for designs with adequate replication to monitor long—term trends of dispersed populations using sign occurrences on trails.

  20. Power of Sign Surveys to Monitor Population Trends.

    PubMed

    Kendall, Katherine C; Metzgar, Lee H; Patterson, David A; Steele, Brian M

    1992-11-01

    The urgent need for an effective monitoring scheme for grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations led us to investigate the effort required to detect changes in populations of low-density dispersed animals, using sign (mainly scats and tracks) they leave on trails. We surveyed trails in Glacier National Park for bear tracks and scats during five consecutive years. Using these data, we modeled the occurrence of bear sign on trails, then estimated the power of various sampling schemes. Specifically, we explored the power of bear sign surveys to detect a 20% decline in sign occurrence. Realistic sampling schemes appear feasible if the density of sign is high enough, and we provide guidelines for designs with adequate replication to monitor long-term trends of dispersed populations using sign occurrences on trails.

  1. Dynamics of low and high pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic bird populations.

    PubMed

    Tuncer, Necibe; Torres, Juan; Martcheva, Maia; Barfield, Michael; Holt, Robert D

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a time-since-recovery structured, multi-strain, multi-population model of avian influenza. Influenza A viruses infect many species of wild and domestic birds and are classified into two groups based on their ability to cause disease: low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Prior infection with LPAI provides partial immunity towards HPAI. The model introduced in this paper structures LPAI-recovered birds (wild and domestic) with time-since-recovery and includes cross-immunity towards HPAI that can fade with time. The model has a unique disease-free equilibrium (DFE), unique LPAI-only and HPAI-only equilibria and at least one coexistence equilibrium. We compute the reproduction numbers of LPAI ([Formula: see text]) and HPAI ([Formula: see text]) and show that the DFE is locally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. A unique LPAI-only (HPAI-only) equilibrium exists when [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and it is locally asymptotically stable if HPAI (LPAI) cannot invade the equilibrium, that is, if the invasion number [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]). We show using numerical simulations that the ODE version of the model, which is obtained by discarding the time-since-recovery structures (making cross-immunity constant), can exhibit oscillations, and also that the pathogens LPAI and HPAI can coexist with sustained oscillations in both populations. Through simulations, we show that even if both populations (wild and domestic) are sinks when alone, LPAI and HPAI can persist in both populations combined. Thus, reducing the reproduction numbers of LPAI and HPAI in each population to below unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. The pathogens can continue to coexist in both populations unless transmission between the populations is reduced.

  2. Point Counts of Birds: What Are We Estimating?

    Treesearch

    Douglas H. Johnson

    1995-01-01

    Point counts of birds are made for many reasons, including estimating local densities, determining population trends, assessing habitat preferences, and exploiting the activities of recreational birdwatchers. Problems arise unless there is a clear understanding of what point counts mean in terms of actual populations of birds. Criteria for conducting point counts...

  3. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Cornman, Robert S.; Kenneth L. Jones,; Fike, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The πZ/πA ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that NeZ/NeA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  4. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

    PubMed Central

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-01-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The πZ/πA ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that NeZ/NeA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio. PMID:26014526

  5. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  6. [Urbanization mechanisms in bird species: population systems transformations or adaptations at the individual level?].

    PubMed

    Fridman, V S; Eremkin, G S; Zakharova-Kubareva, N Iu

    2008-01-01

    The present research deals with urbanization of wild bird and mammal species. Forms and mechanisms of population steadiness in the urban landscape have been examined. The urbanization process turned out to be a directed change of the population system forming de novo in the urbolandscape leading to a sustainable organization peculiar for the particular environment. The population organization of different types in urbolandscape is found to provide its stability under conditions of directed and fast changes accompanied with instability and heterogenous structure of habitats. It is shown that the same type of population organization meets the corresponding demands among different species settling in the urban environment. Its features are "openness" and "flowage" of the groups, far order of settlement levels and other units of population system, constant movements of the individuals between the groups as a respond to the signals of urboenvironment significant changes. The "urban" variant of the population system organization turns out to be opposite to that of the same species in the non-urban habitats. After formation of the urban types by the species and successful developing of the town, the urban population becomes separated from the maternal local population and begins to exist independently in the urban landscape. The variety of adaptation aberrations in ecology, behavior, and mode of life of urban birds is the population system stability function in the urban landscape and is not a results of individual selection. It is shown that the urbanization process of the species goes firstly on the population level being the system structure transformation developed by the species towards the most stable state in the town (city) territory. Only after the appearance of stable urban population, the urban individuals show the rapid growth of different changes in ecology, behavior, mode of life that was traditionally described by naturalists as species adaptation to the

  7. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  8. Neotropical birds show a humped distribution of within-population genetic diversity along a latitudinal transect.

    PubMed

    Miller, Matthew J; Bermingham, Eldredge; Klicka, John; Escalante, Patricia; Winker, Kevin

    2010-05-01

    The latitudinal gradient in species richness is a nearly universal ecological phenomenon. Similarly, conspecific genetic diversity often increases towards the equator - usually explained as the consequence of post-glacial range expansion or due to the shared response of genetic diversity to processes that promote species richness. However, no study has yet examined the relationship between latitude and within-population genetic diversity in exclusively tropical species. We surveyed genetic variation in nine resident bird species co-occurring in tropical lowlands between southern Mexico and western Ecuador, where avian species richness increases with decreasing latitude. Within-population genetic variation was always highest at mid-range latitudes, and not in the most equatorial populations. Differences in demography and gene flow across species' ranges may explain some of our observations; however, much of the pattern may be due simply to geometric constraints. Our findings have implications for conservation planning and for understanding how biodiversity scales from genes to communities.

  9. Experimental evaluation of population trend and harvest composition in a Wyoming cougar population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, C.R.; Lindzey, F.G.

    2005-01-01

    Cougar (Puma concolor) management has been hindered by inability to identify population trends. We documented changes in sex and age of harvested cougars during an experimentally induced reduction in population size and subsequent recovery to better understand the relationship between sex-age composition and population trend in exploited populations. The cougar population in the Snowy Range, southeast Wyoming, was reduced by increased harvest (treatment phase) from 58 independent cougars (>1 year old) (90% CI = 36-81) in the autumn of 1998 to 20 by the spring of 2000 (mean exploitation rate = 43%) and then increased to 46 by spring 2003 following 3 years of reduced harvests (mean exploitation rate = 18%). Pretreatment harvest composition was 63% subadults (1.0-2.5 years old), 23% adult males, and 14% adult females (2 seasons; n = 22). A reduction in subadult harvest, an initial increase followed by a reduction in adult male harvest, and a steady increase in adult female harvest characterized harvest composition trends during the treatment phase. Harvest composition was similar at high and low densities when harvest was light, but proportion of harvested subadult males increased at low density as they replaced adult males removed during the treatment period (high harvest). While sex ratio of harvested cougars alone appears of limited value in identifying population change, when combined with age class the 2 appear to provide an index to population change. Composition of the harvest can be applied to adaptively manage cougar populations where adequate sex and age data are collected from harvested animals.

  10. Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population

    PubMed Central

    Pulido, Francisco; Berthold, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution, abundance, and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds, but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic adjustments are largely unknown. This knowledge is still crucial to predict whether populations of migratory birds will adapt to a rapid increase in temperature. We monitored migratory behavior in a population of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) to test for evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Using a common garden experiment in time and captive breeding we demonstrated a genetic reduction in migratory activity and evolutionary change in phenotypic plasticity of migration onset. An artificial selection experiment further revealed that residency will rapidly evolve in completely migratory bird populations if selection for shorter migration distance persists. Our findings suggest that current alterations of the environment are favoring birds wintering closer to the breeding grounds and that populations of migratory birds have strongly responded to these changes in selection. The reduction of migratory activity is probably an important evolutionary process in the adaptation of migratory birds to climate change, because it reduces migration costs and facilitates the rapid adjustment to the shifts in the timing of food availability during reproduction. PMID:20368446

  11. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  12. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine A.; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds. PMID:26569108

  13. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  14. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Drum, Ryan G; Ribic, Christine A; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  15. Population trends of the common murre (Uria aalge californica)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carter, Harry R.; Wilson, Ulrich W.; Lowe, Roy W.; Rodway, M.S.; Manuwal, David Allen; Takekawa, Jean E.; Yee, Julie L.; Manuwal, David Allen; Carter, Harry R.; Zimmerman, Tara S.; Orthmeyer, Dennis L.

    2001-01-01

    Population trends for the common murre (Uria aalge californica) were determined from available whole-colony counts of murres in California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia from 1800 to 1995.From 1800 to 1978, historical counts were sporadic and not standardized. From 1979 to 1995, standardized whole-colony counts from aerial photographs were conducted in many years in California, Oregon, and Washington. In contrast, no aerial photographs of murre colonies in British Columbia have been taken and only a few other whole-colony counts have been conducted. Direct comparisons and statistical treatment of whole-colony counts were conducted using 1979-95 data. Complete data for all colonies were available only in 1988-89 when the breeding murre population was estimated to be 1.1 million, about 5-8% of the world population and 13-28% of the Pacific Ocean population. A summary of various natural and anthropogenic factors affecting murre populations in western North America since 1800, and particularly in 1979-95, also is provided.

  16. Implicit assumptions underlying simple harvest models of marine bird populations can mislead environmental management decisions.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Susan H; Cook, Aonghais S C P; Robinson, Robert A

    2017-10-01

    Assessing the potential impact of additional mortality from anthropogenic causes on animal populations requires detailed demographic information. However, these data are frequently lacking, making simple algorithms, which require little data, appealing. Because of their simplicity, these algorithms often rely on implicit assumptions, some of which may be quite restrictive. Potential Biological Removal (PBR) is a simple harvest model that estimates the number of additional mortalities that a population can theoretically sustain without causing population extinction. However, PBR relies on a number of implicit assumptions, particularly around density dependence and population trajectory that limit its applicability in many situations. Among several uses, it has been widely employed in Europe in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), to examine the acceptability of potential effects of offshore wind farms on marine bird populations. As a case study, we use PBR to estimate the number of additional mortalities that a population with characteristics typical of a seabird population can theoretically sustain. We incorporated this level of additional mortality within Leslie matrix models to test assumptions within the PBR algorithm about density dependence and current population trajectory. Our analyses suggest that the PBR algorithm identifies levels of mortality which cause population declines for most population trajectories and forms of population regulation. Consequently, we recommend that practitioners do not use PBR in an EIA context for offshore wind energy developments. Rather than using simple algorithms that rely on potentially invalid implicit assumptions, we recommend use of Leslie matrix models for assessing the impact of additional mortality on a population, enabling the user to explicitly define assumptions and test their importance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Demographic drivers of decline and recovery in an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird population.

    PubMed

    Morrison, Catriona A; Robinson, Robert A; Butler, Simon J; Clark, Jacquie A; Gill, Jennifer A

    2016-11-16

    Across Europe, rapid population declines are ongoing in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species, but the development of appropriate conservation actions across such large migratory ranges is severely constrained by lack of understanding of the demographic drivers of these declines. By constructing regional integrated population models (IPMs) for one of the suite of migratory species that is declining in the southeast of Britain but increasing in the northwest, we show that, while annual population growth rates in both regions vary with adult survival, the divergent regional trajectories are primarily a consequence of differences in productivity. Between 1994 and 2012, annual survival and productivity rates ranged over similar levels in both regions, but high productivity rates were rarer in the declining southeast population and never coincided with high survival rates. By contrast, population growth in the northwest was fuelled by several years in which higher productivity coincided with high survival rates. Simulated population trajectories suggest that realistic improvements in productivity could have reversed the decline (i.e. recovery of the population index to more than or equal to 1) in the southeast. Consequently, actions to improve productivity on European breeding grounds are likely to be a more fruitful and achievable means of reversing migrant declines than actions to improve survival on breeding, passage or sub-Saharan wintering grounds. © 2016 The Authors.

  18. Demographic drivers of decline and recovery in an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird population

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, Robert A.; Butler, Simon J.; Clark, Jacquie A.; Gill, Jennifer A.

    2016-01-01

    Across Europe, rapid population declines are ongoing in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species, but the development of appropriate conservation actions across such large migratory ranges is severely constrained by lack of understanding of the demographic drivers of these declines. By constructing regional integrated population models (IPMs) for one of the suite of migratory species that is declining in the southeast of Britain but increasing in the northwest, we show that, while annual population growth rates in both regions vary with adult survival, the divergent regional trajectories are primarily a consequence of differences in productivity. Between 1994 and 2012, annual survival and productivity rates ranged over similar levels in both regions, but high productivity rates were rarer in the declining southeast population and never coincided with high survival rates. By contrast, population growth in the northwest was fuelled by several years in which higher productivity coincided with high survival rates. Simulated population trajectories suggest that realistic improvements in productivity could have reversed the decline (i.e. recovery of the population index to more than or equal to 1) in the southeast. Consequently, actions to improve productivity on European breeding grounds are likely to be a more fruitful and achievable means of reversing migrant declines than actions to improve survival on breeding, passage or sub-Saharan wintering grounds. PMID:27807267

  19. Are southern California's fragmented saltmarshes capable of sustaining endemic bird populations?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, A.N.; ,

    2006-01-01

    Loss of coastal saltmarshes in southern California has been estimated at 75-90% since presettlement times. The remaining wetlands are mostly fragmented and degraded, and most frequently have harsh edges adjacent to urban landscapes. Non-migratory Belding's Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi) and Light-footed Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris levipes) are endemic to saltmarshes in southern California and Baja California, Mexico. Population sizes of Belding's Savannah Sparrows show a positive relationship with saltmarsh area, but few large wetland fragments remain within their range in California. Belding's Savannah Sparrows are sensitive to fragmentation and isolation, with small isolated marshes acting as population sinks. In addition, this subspecies shows low genetic variability, limited dispersal, and small effective population sizes. Light-footed Clapper Rails are habitat specialists, found in marshes with good tidal flushing that support California cordgrass (Spartina foliosa) habitats. Light-footed Clapper rails also show low genetic variability and limited dispersal and the remnant populations of clapper rails are relatively isolated from one another. Large wetland complexes may serve as population sources for both species, while small, isolated marshes may act as population sinks but more research is needed to estimate and model the dynamics of these two metapopulations. Mitigation for wetland loss and restoration projects should not be evaluated simply by presence of rare bird species alone, but instead efforts should be made to determine population sustainability.

  20. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.

  1. Timing and proximate causes of mortality in wild bird populations: testing Ashmole’s hypothesis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barton, Daniel C.; Martin, Thomas E.

    2012-01-01

    Fecundity in birds is widely recognized to increase with latitude across diverse phylogenetic groups and regions, yet the causes of this variation remain enigmatic. Ashmole’s hypothesis is one of the most broadly accepted explanations for this pattern. This hypothesis suggests that increasing seasonality leads to increasing overwinter mortality due to resource scarcity during the lean season (e.g., winter) in higher latitude climates. This mortality is then thought to yield increased per-capita resources for breeding that allow larger clutch sizes at high latitudes. Support for this hypothesis has been based on indirect tests, whereas the underlying mechanisms and assumptions remain poorly explored. We used a meta-analysis of over 150 published studies to test two underlying and critical assumptions of Ashmole’s hypothesis: first, that ad ult mortality is greatest during the season of greatest resource scarcity, and second, t hat most mortality is caused by starvation. We found that the lean season (winter) was generally not the season of greatest mortality. Instead, spring or summer was most frequently the season of greatest mortality. Moreover, monthly survival rates were not explained by monthly productivity, again opposing predictions from Ashmole’s hypothesis. Finally, predation, rather than starvation, was the most frequent proximate cause o f mortality. Our results do not support the mechanistic predictions of Ashmole‘s hypothesis, and suggest alternative explanations of latitudinal variation in clutch size should remain under consideration. Our meta-analysis also highlights a paucity of data available on the timing and causes of mortality in many bird populations, particularly tropical bird populations, despite the clear theoretical and empirical importance of such data.

  2. Aging in france: population trends, policy issues, and research institutions.

    PubMed

    Béland, Daniel; Viriot Durandal, Jean-Philippe

    2013-04-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology research, and, finally, points to several emerging issues about aging. In France, these issues include active and healthy aging, the improvement of knowledge on specific vulnerable segments of the elderly population, and the adaptation of the urban landscape and infrastructure to an aging population. At the broadest level, one of the key points formulated in this article is that in France, aging research is dominated by the state, yet it is scattered and compartmentalized, posing a crucial challenge in an era dominated by European and other international networks and coordination efforts in aging policy and knowledge.

  3. Habitat-independent spatial structure in populations of some forest birds in eastern North America.

    PubMed

    Ricklefs, Robert E

    2013-01-01

    The extent to which populations fill available ecological space is critical to evaluating niche-based theories of community assembly, but habitat suitability for populations is difficult to assess. The absence of a species from areas of otherwise suitable habitat might indicate localized species-specific influences, including biological interactions with competitors, consumers or pathogens, on local population persistence. I used Bray-Curtis ordination axis scores, based on the distributions of forest birds across census plots in eastern North America, as proxies of general features of habitat suitability to predict local abundances of each species of small land bird. I then applied spatial analysis to identify significant spatial structure (Moran's I) in residuals (positive or negative) from predicted local densities, which would indicate localized species-specific influences on population size. Fifty-eight of 79 species exhibited no significant spatial structure in residual abundances, indicating that the ordination axes reflect most of the spatial variation in environmental conditions and habitat characteristics that influence population distribution and density or that samples were too small to detect significant spatial variation. Twenty-one species exhibited significant habitat-independent spatial structure of residuals within distances of 100 km. Aggregations of residuals for these species were independently located, for the most part, and thus probably unrelated to general features of the environment that affect many species. Among factors considered as potential causes of spatial anomalies, positive density dependence (Allee effects), intraspecific social aggregation and area sensitivity in response to forest fragmentation find little support in this analysis. Because of the species-specific nature of these clustered residuals, specialized pathogens are potential candidates to drive spatial anomalies in host abundance.

  4. High Genetic Diversity of Newcastle Disease Virus in Wild and Domestic Birds in Northeastern China from 2013 to 2015 Reveals Potential Epidemic Trends

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Pingze; Xie, Guangyao; Liu, Xinxin; Ai, Lili; Chen, Yanyu; Meng, Xin; Bi, Yuhai; Chen, Jianjun; Sun, Yuzhang; Stoeger, Tobias; Ding, Zhuang

    2015-01-01

    Newcastle disease (ND), caused by the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV), is one of the most important viral diseases of birds globally, but little is currently known regarding enzootic trends of NDV in northeastern China, especially for class I viruses. Thus, we performed a surveillance study for NDV in northeastern China from 2013 to 2015. A total 755 samples from wild and domestic birds in wetlands and live bird markets (LBMs) were collected, and 10 isolates of NDV were identified. Genetic and phylogenetic analyses showed that five isolates from LBMs belong to class I subgenotype 1b, two (one from wild birds and one from LBMs) belong to the vaccine-like class II genotype II, and three (all from wild birds) belong to class II subgenotype Ib. Interestingly, the five class I isolates had epidemiological connections with viruses from southern, eastern, and southeastern China. Our findings, together with recent prevalence trends of class I and virulent class II NDV in China, suggest possible virus transmission between wild and domestic birds and the potential for an NDV epidemic in the future. PMID:26712543

  5. High Genetic Diversity of Newcastle Disease Virus in Wild and Domestic Birds in Northeastern China from 2013 to 2015 Reveals Potential Epidemic Trends.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Pingze; Xie, Guangyao; Liu, Xinxin; Ai, Lili; Chen, Yanyu; Meng, Xin; Bi, Yuhai; Chen, Jianjun; Sun, Yuzhang; Stoeger, Tobias; Ding, Zhuang; Yin, Renfu

    2015-12-28

    Newcastle disease (ND), caused by the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV), is one of the most important viral diseases of birds globally, but little is currently known regarding enzootic trends of NDV in northeastern China, especially for class I viruses. Thus, we performed a surveillance study for NDV in northeastern China from 2013 to 2015. A total 755 samples from wild and domestic birds in wetlands and live bird markets (LBMs) were collected, and 10 isolates of NDV were identified. Genetic and phylogenetic analyses showed that five isolates from LBMs belong to class I subgenotype 1b, two (one from wild birds and one from LBMs) belong to the vaccine-like class II genotype II, and three (all from wild birds) belong to class II subgenotype Ib. Interestingly, the five class I isolates had epidemiological connections with viruses from southern, eastern, and southeastern China. Our findings, together with recent prevalence trends of class I and virulent class II NDV in China, suggest possible virus transmission between wild and domestic birds and the potential for an NDV epidemic in the future. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  6. Census Methods for Caribbean Land Birds

    Treesearch

    Joseph M. Wunderle

    1994-01-01

    Different census methods can be used to survey the distribution of a terrestrial bird species or to monitor population changes. The appropriate method depends on whether the objective is simply to document the presence of a species or to quantify its relative abundance, population density, population trends over time, habitat use, survivorship, or the physical...

  7. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  8. West Nile virus and greater sage-grouse: estimating infection rate in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Walker, Brett L; Naugle, David E; Doherty, Kevin E; Cornish, Todd E

    2007-09-01

    Understanding impacts of disease on wild bird populations requires knowing not only mortality rate following infection, but also the proportion of the population that is infected. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in western North America are known to have a high mortality rate following infection with West Nile virus (WNv), but actual infection rates in wild populations remain unknown. We used rates of WNv-related mortality and seroprevalence from radiomarked females to estimate infection rates in a wild greater sage-grouse population in the Powder River basin (PRB) of Montana and Wyoming from 2003 to 2005. Minimum WNv-related mortality rates ranged from 2.4% to 13.3% among years and maximum possible rates ranged from 8.2% to 28.9%. All live-captured birds in 2003 and 2004 tested seronegative. In spring 2005 and spring 2006, 10.3% and 1.8% respectively, of newly captured females tested seropositive for neutralizing antibodies to WNv. These are the first documented cases of sage-grouse surviving infection with WNv. Low to moderate WNv-related mortality in summer followed by low seroprevalence the following spring in all years indicates that annual infection rates were between 4% and 29%. This suggests that most sage-grouse in the PRB have not yet been exposed and remain susceptible. Impacts of WNv in the PRB in the near future will likely depend more on annual variation in temperature and changes in vector distribution than on the spread of resistance. Until the epizootiology of WNv in sagebrush-steppe ecosystems is better understood, we suggest that management to reduce impacts of WNv focus on eliminating man-made water sources that support breeding mosquitoes known to vector the virus. Our findings also underscore problems with using seroprevalence as a surrogate for infection rate and for identifying competent hosts in highly susceptible species.

  9. Ranges of North American breeding birds: visualizing long-term population changes in North American breeding birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Price, Jeff

    1995-01-01

    These maps show changes in the distribution and abundance patterns of some North American birds for the last 20 years. For each species there are four maps, each representing the average distribution and abundance pattern over the five-year periods 1970-1974, 1975-1979, 1980-1984, and 1985-1989. The maps are based on data collected by the USFWS/CWS Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Only BBS routes that were run at least once during each of the five-year periods were used (about 1300 routes). The maps were created in the software package Surfer using a kriging technique to interpolate mean relative abundances for areas where no routes were run. On each map, a portion of northeast Canada was blanked out because there were not enough routes to allow for adequate interpolation. All of the maps in this presentation use the same color scale (shown below). The minimum value mapped was 0.5 birds per route, which represents the edge of the species range.

  10. Wired: impacts of increasing power line use by a growing bird population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreira, Francisco; Encarnação, Vitor; Rosa, Gonçalo; Gilbert, Nathalie; Infante, Samuel; Costa, Julieta; D’Amico, Marcello; Martins, Ricardo C.; Catry, Inês

    2017-02-01

    Power lines are increasingly widespread across many regions of the planet. Although these linear infrastructures are known for their negative impacts on bird populations, through collision and electrocution, some species take advantage of electricity pylons for nesting. In this case, estimation of the net impact of these infrastructures at the population level requires an assessment of trade-offs between positive and negative impacts. We compiled historical information (1958–2014) of the Portuguese white stork Ciconia ciconia population to analyze long-term changes in numbers, distribution range and use of nesting structures. White stork population size increased 660% up to 12000 breeding pairs between 1984 and 2014. In the same period, the proportion of nests on electricity pylons increased from 1% to 25%, likely facilitated by the 60% increase in the length of the very high tension power line grid (holding the majority of the nests) in the stork’s distribution range. No differences in breeding success were registered for storks nesting on electricity pylons versus other structures, but a high risk of mortality by collision and electrocution with power lines was estimated. We discuss the implications of this behavioral change, and of the management responses by power line companies, both for stork populations and for managers.

  11. Trends and effects of organochlorine residues on Oregon and Nevada wading birds, 1979-83

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Henny, C.J.; Blus, L.J.; Hulse, C.S.

    1985-01-01

    The incidence of DDT (parent compound) declined significantly in the eggs of Black-crowned Night-Herons (Nycticorax nycticorax), White-faced Ibis (Plegadis chihi), and Black-necked Stilts (Himantopus mexicanus), and showed a downward trend in Snowy Egrets (Egretta thula). Mean DDE residues (breakdown product of DDT) in eggs declined significantly in Black-crowned Night-Herons and showed a downward trend in Black-necked Stilts and Snowy Egrets; however, no trend was apparent for White-faced Ibis. Some night-herons, egrets, and ibis laid thin-shelled eggs that cracked; eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with DDE residues in the egg contents. Ibis were the most sensitive species to DDE- induced shell thinning. Generally, reduced reproductive success for ibis started at lower DDE egg residues (3 ppm) than for either Snowy Egrets (5 ppm) or night-herons (8 ppm). Egg residue profiles, band recoveries, biotelemetry studies, and residues in fish and other prey items implicate the southwestern United States (a wintering area) as an important source of DDT-DDE that caused the most serious reproductive problem encountered during the study (in night-herons nesting at Ruby Lake, Nevada). Available evidence indicates that the three other species, together with night- herons from Oregon and Idaho, winter in Latin America.

  12. Birds of prey as limiting factors of gamebird populations in Europe: a review.

    PubMed

    Valkama, Jari; Korpimäki, Erkki; Arroyo, Beatriz; Beja, Pedro; Bretagnolle, Vincent; Bro, Elisabeth; Kenward, Robert; Mañosa, Santi; Redpath, Stephen M; Thirgood, Simon; Viñuela, Javier

    2005-05-01

    Whether predators can limit their prey has been a topic of scientific debate for decades. Traditionally it was believed that predators take only wounded, sick, old or otherwise low-quality individuals, and thus have little impact on prey populations. However, there is increasing evidence that, at least under certain circumstances, vertebrate predators may indeed limit prey numbers. This potential role of predators as limiting factors of prey populations has created conflicts between predators and human hunters, because the hunters may see predators as competitors for the same resources. A particularly acute conflict has emerged over the past few decades between gamebird hunters and birds of prey in Europe. As a part of a European-wide research project, we reviewed literature on the relationships between birds of prey and gamebirds. We start by analysing available data on the diets of 52 European raptor and owl species. There are some 32 species, mostly specialist predators feeding on small mammals, small passerine birds or insects, which never or very rarely include game animals (e.g. hares, rabbits, gamebirds) in their diet. A second group (20 species) consists of medium-sized and large raptors which prey on game, but for which the proportion in the diet varies temporally and spatially. Only three raptor species can have rather large proportions of gamebirds in their diet, and another seven species may utilise gamebirds locally to a great extent. We point out that the percentage of a given prey species in the diet of an avian predator does not necessarily reflect the impact of that predator on densities of prey populations. Next, we summarise available data on the numerical responses of avian predators to changing gamebird numbers. In half of these studies, no numerical response was found, while in the remainder a response was detected such that either raptor density or breeding success increased with density of gamebirds. Data on the functional responses of

  13. Hair mercury levels in Amazonian populations: spatial distribution and trends

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Mercury is present in the Amazonian aquatic environments from both natural and anthropogenic sources. As a consequence, many riverside populations are exposed to methylmercury, a highly toxic organic form of mercury, because of their intense fish consumption. Many studies have analysed this exposure from different approaches since the early nineties. This review aims to systematize the information in spatial distribution, comparing hair mercury levels by studied population and Amazonian river basin, looking for exposure trends. Methods The reviewed papers were selected from scientific databases and online libraries. We included studies with a direct measure of hair mercury concentrations in a sample size larger than 10 people, without considering the objectives, approach of the study or mercury speciation. The results are presented in tables and maps by river basin, displaying hair mercury levels and specifying the studied population and health impact, if any. Results The majority of the studies have been carried out in communities from the central Amazonian regions, particularly on the Tapajós River basin. The results seem quite variable; hair mercury means range from 1.1 to 34.2 μg/g. Most studies did not show any significant difference in hair mercury levels by gender or age. Overall, authors emphasized fish consumption frequency as the main risk factor of exposure. The most studied adverse health effect is by far the neurological performance, especially motricity. However, it is not possible to conclude on the relation between hair mercury levels and health impact in the Amazonian situation because of the relatively small number of studies. Conclusions Hair mercury levels in the Amazonian regions seem to be very heterogenic, depending on several factors. There is no obvious spatial trend and there are many areas that have never been studied. Taking into account the low mercury levels currently handled as acceptable, the majority of the Amazonian

  14. Second generation anticoagulant rodenticides in predatory birds: Probabilistic characterisation of toxic liver concentrations and implications for predatory bird populations in Canada.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Philippe J; Mineau, Pierre; Shore, Richard F; Champoux, Louise; Martin, Pamela A; Wilson, Laurie K; Fitzgerald, Guy; Elliott, John E

    2011-07-01

    Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) are widely used to control rodent pests but exposure and poisonings occur in non-target species, such as birds of prey. Liver residues are often analysed to detect exposure in birds found dead but their use to assess toxicity of SGARs is problematic. We analysed published data on hepatic rodenticide residues and associated symptoms of anticoagulant poisoning from 270 birds of prey using logistic regression to estimate the probability of toxicosis associated with different liver SGAR residues. We also evaluated exposure to SGARs on a national level in Canada by analysing 196 livers from great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) and red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) found dead at locations across the country. Analysis of a broader sample of raptor species from Quebec also helped define the taxonomic breadth of contamination. Calculated probability curves suggest significant species differences in sensitivity to SGARs and significant likelihood of toxicosis below previously suggested concentrations of concern (<0.1mg/kg). Analysis of birds from Quebec showed that a broad range of raptor species are exposed to SGARs, indicating that generalised terrestrial food chains could be contaminated in the vicinity of the sampled areas. Of the two species for which we had samples from across Canada, great horned owls are exposed to SGARs to a greater extent than red-tailed hawks and the liver residue levels were also higher. Using our probability estimates of effect, we estimate that a minimum of 11% of the sampled great horned owl population is at risk of being directly killed by SGARs. This is the first time the potential mortality impact of SGARs on a raptor population has been estimated. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    PubMed

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-05-05

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  16. Epidemiology of the Emergent Disease Paridae pox in an Intensively Studied Wild Bird Population

    PubMed Central

    Lachish, Shelly; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

    2012-01-01

    Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major) reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%), but was far less prevalent (<1%) in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species. Nonlinear smoothing models revealed that the temporal pattern of prevalence among great tits was characterised by within-year fluctuations indicative of seasonal forcing of infection rates, which was likely driven by multiple environmental and demographic factors. There was individual heterogeneity in the course of infection and, although recovery was possible, diseased individuals were far less likely to be recaptured than healthy individuals, suggesting a survival cost of infection. This study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring for obtaining key epidemiological data necessary to understand disease dynamics, spread and persistence in natural populations. PMID:23185230

  17. Migratory connectivity and population-specific migration routes in a long-distance migratory bird.

    PubMed

    Trierweiler, Christiane; Klaassen, Raymond H G; Drent, Rudi H; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Komdeur, Jan; Bairlein, Franz; Koks, Ben J

    2014-03-07

    Knowledge about migratory connectivity, the degree to which individuals from the same breeding site migrate to the same wintering site, is essential to understand processes affecting populations of migrants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we study the migration system of a long-distance migratory bird, the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, by tracking individuals from different breeding populations throughout northern Europe. We identified three main migration routes towards wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Wintering areas and migration routes of different breeding populations overlapped, a pattern best described by 'weak (diffuse) connectivity'. Migratory performance, i.e. timing, duration, distance and speed of migration, was surprisingly similar for the three routes despite differences in habitat characteristics. This study provides, to our knowledge, a first comprehensive overview of the migration system of a Palaearctic-African long-distance migrant. We emphasize the importance of spatial scale (e.g. distances between breeding populations) in defining patterns of connectivity and suggest that knowledge about fundamental aspects determining distribution patterns, such as the among-individual variation in mean migration directions, is required to ultimately understand migratory connectivity. Furthermore, we stress that for conservation purposes it is pivotal to consider wintering areas as well as migration routes and in particular stopover sites.

  18. Anthropogenic natal environmental effects on life histories in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-03-03

    Recent work suggests that the environment experienced in early life can alter life histories in wild populations, but our understanding of the processes involved remains limited. Since anthropogenic environmental change is currently having a major impact on wild populations, this raises the possibility that life histories may be influenced by human activities that alter environmental conditions in early life. Whether this is the case and the processes involved remain unexplored in wild populations. Using 23 years of longitudinal data on the Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus), a tropical forest specialist, we found that females born in territories affected by anthropogenic habitat change shifted investment in reproduction to earlier in life at the expense of late life performance. They also had lower survival rates as young adults. This shift in life history strategy appears to be adaptive, because fitness was comparable to that of other females experiencing less anthropogenic modification in their natal environment. Our results suggest that human activities can leave a legacy on wild birds through natal environmental effects. Whether these legacies have a detrimental effect on populations will depend on life history responses and the extent to which these reduce individual fitness.

  19. Migratory connectivity and population-specific migration routes in a long-distance migratory bird

    PubMed Central

    Trierweiler, Christiane; Klaassen, Raymond H. G.; Drent, Rudi H.; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Komdeur, Jan; Bairlein, Franz; Koks, Ben J.

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge about migratory connectivity, the degree to which individuals from the same breeding site migrate to the same wintering site, is essential to understand processes affecting populations of migrants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we study the migration system of a long-distance migratory bird, the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, by tracking individuals from different breeding populations throughout northern Europe. We identified three main migration routes towards wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Wintering areas and migration routes of different breeding populations overlapped, a pattern best described by ‘weak (diffuse) connectivity’. Migratory performance, i.e. timing, duration, distance and speed of migration, was surprisingly similar for the three routes despite differences in habitat characteristics. This study provides, to our knowledge, a first comprehensive overview of the migration system of a Palaearctic-African long-distance migrant. We emphasize the importance of spatial scale (e.g. distances between breeding populations) in defining patterns of connectivity and suggest that knowledge about fundamental aspects determining distribution patterns, such as the among-individual variation in mean migration directions, is required to ultimately understand migratory connectivity. Furthermore, we stress that for conservation purposes it is pivotal to consider wintering areas as well as migration routes and in particular stopover sites. PMID:24430850

  20. Epidemiology of the emergent disease Paridae pox in an intensively studied wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Lachish, Shelly; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A; Sheldon, Ben C

    2012-01-01

    Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major) reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%), but was far less prevalent (<1%) in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species. Nonlinear smoothing models revealed that the temporal pattern of prevalence among great tits was characterised by within-year fluctuations indicative of seasonal forcing of infection rates, which was likely driven by multiple environmental and demographic factors. There was individual heterogeneity in the course of infection and, although recovery was possible, diseased individuals were far less likely to be recaptured than healthy individuals, suggesting a survival cost of infection. This study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring for obtaining key epidemiological data necessary to understand disease dynamics, spread and persistence in natural populations.

  1. Effects of five-year DDT application on breeding bird population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Springer, P.F.; Webster, C.G.

    1951-01-01

    Aerial applications of DDT in oil at the rate of 2 pounds per acre applied over a four-year interval on bottomland forest resulted in a 26 percent decrease in the breeding bird population by the fifth spring. The American redstart, parula warbler, and red-eyed vireo suffered decreases of 44 percent, 40. percent, and 28 percent, respectively, over the four-year period. Only the redstart decreased significantly immediately following application of the spray; a few days after the first, second, and fifth annual sprayings an average of 23 percent of redstart territories were deserted. No significant decrease was observed for other species, either immediately following spraying, or over the four-year period.

  2. Recommendations for the use of mist nets for inventory and monitoring of bird populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ralph, C. John; Dunn, Erica H.; Peach, Will J.; Handel, Colleen M.; Ralph, C. John; Dunn, Erica H.

    2004-01-01

    We provide recommendations on the best practices for mist netting for the purposes of monitoring population parameters such as abundance and demography. Studies should be carefully thought out before nets are set up, to ensure that sampling design and estimated sample size will allow study objectives to be met. Station location, number of nets, type of nets, net placement, and schedule of operation should be determined by the goals of the particular project, and we provide guidelines for typical mist-net studies. In the absence of study-specific requirements for novel protocols, commonly used protocols should be used to enable comparison of results among studies. Regardless of the equipment, net layout, or netting schedule selected, it is important for all studies that operations be strictly standardized, and a well-written operation protocol will help in attaining this goal. We provide recommendations for data to be collected on captured birds, and emphasize the need for good training of project personnel

  3. Seasonal Metabolic Acclimatization Varies in Direction and Magnitude among Populations of an Afrotropical Passerine Bird.

    PubMed

    Noakes, Matthew J; Wolf, Blair O; McKechnie, Andrew E

    Avian metabolic responses demonstrate considerable diversity under fluctuating environmental conditions, a well-studied example being the seasonal upregulation of basal metabolic rate (BMR) and summit metabolism (Msum) in temperate species experiencing harsh winters. Fewer studies have examined seasonal metabolic acclimatization in subtropical or tropical species. We investigated seasonal metabolic variation in an Afrotropical ploceid passerine, the white-browed sparrow-weaver (Plocepasser mahali; ∼47 g), at three sites along a climatic gradient of approximately 7°C in winter minimum air temperature (Ta). We measured Msum (n ≥ 10 per site per season) in a helox atmosphere, BMR of the same birds at thermoneutrality (Ta ≈ 30°C), and resting metabolic rates at 5°C ≤ Ta ≤ 20°C. Patterns of seasonal adjustments in BMR varied among populations in a manner not solely related to variation in seasonal Ta extremes, ranging from BMR ∼52% higher in winter than in summer to no seasonal difference. Greater cold tolerance was found in a population at a colder desert site, manifested as higher Msum (∼25% higher) and lower helox temperature at cold limit values compared with a milder, mesic site. Our results lend support to the idea that greater variance in the pattern of seasonal metabolic responses occurs in subtropical and tropical species compared with their temperate-zone counterparts and that factors other than Ta extremes (e.g., food availability) may be important in determining the magnitude and direction of seasonal metabolic adjustments in subtropical birds.

  4. Population trends in the European Community, 1960-1986.

    PubMed

    Chesnais, J C

    1988-07-01

    Recent trends in fertility, marriage patterns and family formation in the 12 nations of the European Community are discussed. The total period fertility rate in this group of nations has dropped sharply (42%) since 1960, so that the annual growth was 0.15% in 1986. Immigration and the rate of mortality decline have also slowed. There are some variations in regional or national fertility, and in population growth as a result of age structure. The rate of population growth is slowing in all nations except Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The U.K., Belgium, Luxembourg and Denmark have experienced zero growth since 1980. Italy is close to zero growth. France, Netherlands and Spain have higher growth due to age structure. Ireland continues to grow at 1% yearly. In general, large families are disappearing, although different patterns are evident in various states. France shows high progression to the 1st child; many German couples choose to remain childless. People are marrying older, remaining unmarried, divorcing sooner, cohabiting before or after marriage. Non-marital births are common, especially in nordic countries, but still rare in Mediterranean countries. The restricted family norm, of 0, 1, or 2 children is becoming uniform, resulting in fertility well below, 15-40% of replacement.

  5. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    PubMed

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  6. The North American Breeding Bird Survey, results and analysis 1966 - 2015

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, John; Niven, Daniel; Hines, James; Ziolkowski, David; Pardieck, Keith L.; Fallon, J.E.; Link, William

    2017-01-01

    This website presents population change information for more than 400 species of North American birds, as estimated from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Estimates of trend (interval-specific estimates of population change), annual indices of abundance, and maps of abundance and population change for these species are presented for a variety of regions.

  7. Selenium teratogenesis in natural populations of aquatic birds in central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoffman, D.J.; Ohlendorf, H.M.; Aldrich, T.W.

    1988-01-01

    The frequency and types of malformations are described that were encountered during the spring of 1983 in a natural population of aquatic birds exposed to agricultural drainwater ponds and food items containing high concentrations of selenium in central California. A total of 347 nests of aquatic birds containing 1,681 eggs was selected for study at Kesterson Reservoir located in the Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Merced County, California. Embryos collected during incubation or from eggs that failed to hatch were examined to determine the age at death and presence of malformations. Embryonic death was generally high; approximately 17?60% of the nests of different species contained at least one dead embryo. The incidence of malformed embryos was also high; approximately 22?65% of the nests where at least two embryos were examined contained abnormal embryos. American coots (Fulica americana) and black-necked stilts (Himantopus mexicanus) experienced the highest incidence of malformed embryos. For all species, the average percentage of eggs containing dead or live abnormal embryos was 16.1 whereas the average percentage containing live abnormal embryos was 10.7. Multiple gross malformations of the eyes, brain, and feet were often present. Brain defects included hydrocephaly and exencephaly. Eye defects included both unilateral and bilateral anophthalmia and microphthalmia. Eye and foot defects with ectrodactyly and swollen joints were the most common in coots. Beak defects also occurred frequently and most often included incomplete development of the lower beak of ducks (Anas spp.) and stilts. Wing and leg defects were most prevalent in stilts and ducks, with ectromelia and amelia most prevalent in stilts. Other malformations occurring at lower frequencies included enlarged hearts with thin ventricular walls, liver hypopiasia, and gastroschisis. Based upon simultaneous examination of a control population of aquatic birds of the same species and published

  8. Trends in chronic marine oil pollution in Danish waters assessed using 22 years of beached bird surveys.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Jørn Lennart; Durinck, Jan; Skov, Henrik

    2007-09-01

    Beached bird surveys provide an important tool for monitoring the level of oil pollution at sea, which is the most significant observable cause of death for a large number of waterbird species and pose a serious threat to wintering seabird populations. Linear regression analyses of oil rates from the Danish 22 year dataset show a decline in the oil pollution level in offshore areas of the eastern North Sea and Skagerrak and in near-shore parts of the Kattegat; but a worsening in the offshore areas of the Kattegat. These results raise concern for species such as common scoter, velvet scoter, eider and razorbill, for which the Kattegat serves as a globally important wintering area. It is recommended that surveillance for oil spills is intensified in inner Danish waters, and that action is taken to make responses towards offenders faster, and penalties for oil seepage higher.

  9. Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

    2011-09-01

    The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

  10. Trends in the exploitation of South Atlantic shark populations.

    PubMed

    Barreto, Rodrigo; Ferretti, Francesco; Flemming, Joanna M; Amorim, Alberto; Andrade, Humber; Worm, Boris; Lessa, Rosangela

    2016-08-01

    Approximately 25% of globally reported shark catches occur in Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries. Strong declines in shark populations have been detected in the North Atlantic, whereas in the South Atlantic the situation is less clear, although fishing effort has been increasing in this region since the late 1970s. We synthesized information on shark catch rates (based on 871,177 sharks caught on 86,492 longline sets) for the major species caught by multiple fleets in the South Atlantic between 1979 and 2011. We complied records from fishing logbooks of fishing companies, fishers, and onboard observers that were supplied to Brazilian institutions. By using exploratory data analysis and literature sources, we identified 3 phases of exploitation in these data (Supporting Information). From 1979 to 1997 (phase A), 5 fleets (40 vessels) fished mainly for tunas. From 1998 to 2008 (phase B), 20 fleets (100 vessels) fished for tunas, swordfishes, and sharks. From 2008 to 2011 (phase C), 3 fleets (30 vessels) fished for multiple species, but restrictive measures were implemented. We used generalized linear models to standardize catch rates and identify trends in each of these phases. Shark catch rates increased from 1979 to 1997, when fishing effort was low, decreased from 1998 to 2008, when fishing effort increased substantially, and remained stable or increased from 2008 to 2011, when fishing effort was again low. Our results indicate that most shark populations affected by longlines in the South Atlantic are currently depleted, but these populations may recover if fishing effort is reduced accordingly. In this context, it is problematic that comprehensive data collection, monitoring, and management of these fisheries ceased after 2012. Concurrently with the fact that Brazil is newly identified by FAO among the largest (and in fastest expansion) shark sub-products consumer market worldwide.

  11. The erratic mitochondrial clock: variations of mutation rate, not population size, affect mtDNA diversity across birds and mammals.

    PubMed

    Nabholz, Benoit; Glémin, Sylvain; Galtier, Nicolas

    2009-03-10

    During the last ten years, major advances have been made in characterizing and understanding the evolution of mitochondrial DNA, the most popular marker of molecular biodiversity. Several important results were recently reported using mammals as model organisms, including (i) the absence of relationship between mitochondrial DNA diversity and life-history or ecological variables, (ii) the absence of prominent adaptive selection, contrary to what was found in invertebrates, and (iii) the unexpectedly large variation in neutral substitution rate among lineages, revealing a possible link with species maximal longevity. We propose to challenge these results thanks to the bird/mammal comparison. Direct estimates of population size are available in birds, and this group presents striking life-history trait differences with mammals (higher mass-specific metabolic rate and longevity). These properties make birds the ideal model to directly test for population size effects, and to discriminate between competing hypotheses about the causes of substitution rate variation. A phylogenetic analysis of cytochrome b third-codon position confirms that the mitochondrial DNA mutation rate is quite variable in birds, passerines being the fastest evolving order. On average, mitochondrial DNA evolves slower in birds than in mammals of similar body size. This result is in agreement with the longevity hypothesis, and contradicts the hypothesis of a metabolic rate-dependent mutation rate. Birds show no footprint of adaptive selection on cytochrome b evolutionary patterns, but no link between direct estimates of population size and cytochrome b diversity. The mutation rate is the best predictor we have of within-species mitochondrial diversity in birds. It partly explains the differences in mitochondrial DNA diversity patterns observed between mammals and birds, previously interpreted as reflecting Hill-Robertson interferences with the W chromosome. Mitochondrial DNA diversity patterns in

  12. Polybrominated diphenyl ether trends in eggs of marine and freshwater birds from British Columbia, Canada, 1979-2002.

    PubMed

    Elliott, John E; Wilson, Laurie K; Wakeford, Bryan

    2005-08-01

    Temporal, spatial, and interspecific trends in polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) flame retardants were determined in eggs of marine and freshwater bird species from the province of British Columbia, Canada. Temporal trends in the Fraser River estuary, 1983-2002, were examined by analysis of eggs of great blue herons (Ardea herodias) and from the Strait of Georgia marine ecosystem, 1979-2002, in eggs of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus). Results were compared to those from eggs of the osprey (Pandion haliaetus) taken along the lower Fraser River and along the Columbia River near Castlegar, British Columbia, and of a pelagic seabird, the Leach's storm-petrel (Oceanodroma leucorhoa), collected at a colony on the Queen Charlotte Islands. Mean concentration of sigmaPBDE, 455 microg/kg w.w., were highest in heron eggs collected in 2002 from the Fraser estuary. Concentrations in eggs of cormorants and ospreys taken from sites of varying urban influence tended to be about half that value. Leach's storm petrel eggs had only trace amounts of sigmaPBDE (3.38 microg/kg), despite having similar concentrations of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides to the other species. PBDEs increased exponentially with a doubling time of 5.7 years in eggs of both herons and cormorants. Over this period of increasing PBDEs, major chlorinated hydrocarbons, such as PCBs and DDE, were stable or decreased. The PBDE pattern was relatively consistent in most years and sites, with BDEs 47 > 100 > 99 > 153 > 154 > 28 > 183. This was interpreted as evidence of technical pentaBDE formulations as primary sources of the contamination, with the octaBDE formulations as secondary. Higher resolution analysis of a subsample of the eggs revealed the presence of up to nine other congeners, including BDE209 (range: 0.9-1.8 microg/kg), indicating exposure and uptake of decaBDE sourced congeners in North American foodchains. At some locations, concentrations of pentabrominated congeners and

  13. Effects of weather on the abundance and distribution on populations of 103 breeding bird species across the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allstadt, A. J.; Gorzo, J.; Bateman, B. L.; Heglund, P. J.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Thogmartin, W.; Vavrus, S. J.; Radeloff, V.

    2016-12-01

    Often, fewer birds are often observed in an area experiencing extreme weather, as local populations tend to leave an area (via out-migration or concentration in refugia) or experience a change in population size (via mortality or reduced fecundity). Further, weather patterns are often coherent over large areas so unsuitable weather may threaten large portions of an entire species range simultaneously. However, beyond a few iconic irruptive species, rarely have studies applied both the necessary scale and sensitivity required to assess avian population responses over entire species range. Here, we examined the effects of pre-breeding season weather on the distribution and abundances of 103 North American bird species from the late 1966-2010 using observed abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared abundances with measures of drought and temperature over each species' range, and with three atmospheric teleconnections that describe large-scale circulation patterns influencing conditions on the ground. More than 90% of the species responded to at least one of our five weather variables. Grassland bird species tended to be most responsive to weather conditions and forest birds the least, though we found relations among all habitat types. For most species, the response was movement rather than large effects on the overall population size. Maps of these responses indicate that concentration and out-migration are both common strategies for coping with challenging weather conditions across a species range. The dynamic distribution of many bird species makes clear the need to account for temporal variability in conservation planning, as areas that are less important for a species' breeding success in most years may be very important in years with abnormal weather conditions.

  14. Persistent impacts of West Nile virus on North American bird populations

    PubMed Central

    George, T. Luke; Harrigan, Ryan J.; LaManna, Joseph A.; DeSante, David F.; Saracco, James F.; Smith, Thomas B.

    2015-01-01

    Since its introduction to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has had devastating impacts on native host populations, but to date these impacts have been difficult to measure. Using a continental-scale dataset comprised of a quarter-million birds captured over nearly two decades and a recently developed model of WNV risk, we estimated the impact of this emergent disease on the survival of avian populations. We find that populations were negatively affected by WNV in 23 of the 49 species studied (47%). We distinguished two groups of species: those for which WNV negatively impacted survival only during initial spread of the disease (n = 11), and those that show no signs of recovery since disease introduction (n = 12). Results provide a novel example of the taxonomic breadth and persistent impacts of this wildlife disease on a continental scale. Phylogenetic analyses further identify groups (New World sparrows, finches, and vireos) disproportionally affected by temporary or persistent WNV effects, suggesting an evolutionary dimension of disease risk. Identifying the factors affecting the persistence of a disease across host species is critical to mitigating its effects, particularly in a world marked by rapid anthropogenic change. PMID:26578774

  15. Bridging the gap between habitat-modeling research and bird conservation with dynamic landscape and population models

    Treesearch

    Frank R., III Thompson

    2009-01-01

    Habitat models are widely used in bird conservation planning to assess current habitat or populations and to evaluate management alternatives. These models include species-habitat matrix or database models, habitat suitability models, and statistical models that predict abundance. While extremely useful, these approaches have some limitations.

  16. Distribution and abundance of marine bird and pinniped populations within Port Foster, Deception Island, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kendall, Katrina A.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Wilson, Robert C.

    2003-06-01

    Seabirds and pinnipeds were surveyed during four cruises from March 1999 to November 2000 at Port Foster, Deception Island, Antarctica. Abundances and distributions of three species of pinnipeds, Arctocephalus gazella (Antarctic fur seals), Leptonychotes weddelli (Weddell seals), and Lobodon carcinophagus (crabeater seals), and 11 species of marine birds were documented within Port Foster. A. gazella was the dominant pinniped within Port Foster; its abundance has increased since the 1986/87 austral summer season. A. gazella were concentrated at the entrance to Port Foster. More pinnipeds were observed during the austral summer than during the spring. The most dominant seabird, Pygoscelis antarctica (chinstrap penguin), was concentrated along the rocky cliffs behind the beaches where A. gazella hauled out. Larus dominicanus (kelp gull) and Daption capense (cape petrel) were the most dominant flying seabirds. All other seabird species were more widely distributed around Port Foster than P. antarctica. There was no clear trend in abundances of seabirds over the study period. It is possible that the protected area of Port Foster provides refuge for vagrants of colonies along the outer periphery of the island and as a stopover point for migrating species.

  17. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Treesearch

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  18. Bird community composition

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Antrobus, T.J.; Guilfoyle, M.P.; Barrow, W.C.; Hamel, P.B.; Wakeley, J.S.

    2000-01-01

    Neotropical migrants are birds that breed in North America and winter primarily in Central and South America. Long-term population studies of birds in the Eastern United States indicated declines of some forest-dwelling birds, many of which winter in the Neotropics (Peterjohn and others 1995). These declines were attributed to loss of wintering and breeding habitat due to deforestation and fragmentation, respectively. Many species of Nearctic migrants--birds that breed in the northern regions of North America and winter in the Southern United States--are also experiencing population declines. Because large areas of undistrubed, older, bottomland hardwood forests oftern contain large numbers of habitat specialists, including forest-interior neotropical migrants and wintering Nearctic migrants, these forests may be critical in maintaining avian diversity. This study had two primary objectivs: (1) to create a baseline data set that can be used as a standard against which other bottomland hardwood forests can be compared, and (2) to establish long-term monitoring stations during both breeding and wintering seasons to discern population trends of avian species using bottomland hardwood forests.

  19. Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in eggs of wading birds from San Francisco Bay, California

    SciTech Connect

    Hothem, R.L.; Marois, K.C.; Wainwright, S.E.; Roster, D.L.; King, K.A.; Keldsen, T.J.

    1995-08-01

    Between 1989 and 1991, reproduction by black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) was studied at sites in San Francisco Bay. Eggs were collected from these and other bay sites and from South Wilbur Flood Area, a reference site in California`s San Joaquin Valley. Eggs were analyzed for inorganic trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results were compared among sites and years and with results of previous studies. There was some evidence of impaired reproduction, but concentrations of contaminants were generally lower than threshold levels for such effects. Egg hatchability was generally good, with predation being the factor that most limited reproductive success. Mean PCB concentrations were generally higher in eggs from the south end of San Francisco Bay than from the north, but the only temporal change, an increase, was observed at Alcatraz Island. There were spatial differences for p,p{prime}-DDE in night-heron eggs in 1990, but the highest mean concentration of DDE was in night-heron eggs from South Wilbur in 1991. Temporal declines in maximum concentrations of DDE in eggs were observed in the bay, but means did not change significantly over time. At Bair Island in the southern end of the bay, mean concentrations of mercury decreased while selenium increased in night-heron eggs over time, but there were no clear bay-wide spatial or temporal trends for either element.

  20. Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in eggs of wading birds from San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hothem, R.L.; Roster, D.L.; King, K.A.; Keldsen, T.J.; Marois, Katherine C.; Wainwright, S.E.

    1995-01-01

    Between 1989 and 1991, reproduction by black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) was studied at sites in San Francisco Bay. Eggs were collected from these and other bay sites and from South Wilbur Flood Area, a reference site in California's San Joaquin Valley. Eggs were analyzed for inorganic trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results were compared among sites and years and with results of previous studies. There was some evidence of impaired reproduction, but concentrations of contaminants were generally lower than threshold levels for such effects. Egg hatchability was generally good, with predation being the factor that most limited reproductive success. Mean PCB concentrations were generally higher in eggs from the south end of San Francisco Bay than from the north, but the only temporal change, an increase, was observed at Alcatraz Island. There were spatial differences for p,p'-DDE in night-heron eggs in 1990, but the highest mean concentration of DDE was in night-heron eggs from South Wilbur in 1991. Temporal declines in maximum concentrations of DDE in eggs were observed in the bay, but means did not change significantly over time, At Bair Island in the southern end of the bay, mean concentrations of mercury decreased while selenium increased in night-heron eggs over time, but there were no clear bay-wide spatial or temporal trends for either element.

  1. Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America.

    PubMed

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Blancher, Peter J; Rodewald, Amanda D; Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Rosenberg, Kenneth V; Hochachka, Wesley M; Verburg, Peter H; Kelling, Steve

    2017-07-24

    Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to

  2. Population status of Kittlitz's and Marbled Murrelets and surveys for other marine bird and mammal species in the Kenai Fjords area, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Pelt, Thomas I.; Piatt, John F.

    2003-01-01

    The Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare seabird that nests in alpine terrain and generally forages near tidewater glaciers during the breeding season. More than 95% of the global population breeds in Alaska, with the remainder occurring in the Russian Far East. A global population estimate using best-available data in the early 1990s was 20,000 individuals. However, survey data from two core areas (Prince William Sound and Glacier Bay) suggest that populations have declined by 80-90% during the past 10-20 years. In response to these declines, a coalition of environmental groups petitioned the USFWS in May of 2001 to list the Kittlitz’s murrelet under the Endangered Species Act. In 2002, we began a three-year project to examine population status and trend of Kittlitz’s Murrelets in areas where distribution and abundance are poorly known. Here we report on the first field season, focused on the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. We re-surveyed selected historical transects to evaluate trends, and surveyed new transects for improved population estimation during early July 2002. From a total of 66 Kittlitz’s Murrelets seen on transects, we estimate a total population of 509 Kittlitz’s Murrelets along the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. Comparisons with past surveys suggest a decline of 83% since 1976, with an average rate of decline calculated as–6.9 % per annum. This decline is in agreement with population declines observed elsewhere in the species’ core glaciated range, indicating that steep population declines observed to date are likely to be a range-wide phenomenon. While the focus of the study was Kittlitz’s Murrelets, other species of marine birds and mammals were also surveyed. Populations of the closely related Marbled Murrelet appear to have increased during the same time period. The abundance and distribution of other species are presented in appendices.

  3. Trends in Endoscopic Sinus Surgery Rates in the Medicare Population

    PubMed Central

    Venkatraman, Giridhar; Likosky, Donald S.; Zhou, Weiping; Finlayson, Samuel R. G.; Goodman, David C.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the trends in rates of endoscopic sinus surgery, open sinus procedures (open sinus surgery), and the prevalence of diagnosis of chronic rhinosinusitis in the Medicare population from 1998 to 2006. Design Retrospective cohort analysis. Patients Twenty-percent sample of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 to 99 years for the years 1998 to 2006. Main Outcome Measures Change in per capita annual rates of endoscopic sinus surgery, open sinus surgery, and chronic rhinosinusitis diagnosis among Medicare beneficiaries. Results From 1998 to 2006, the rate of patients undergoing endoscopic sinus surgery per 1000 Medicare beneficiaries increased by 20%, from 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.74) to 0.92 (95% CI, 0.89-0.95). Over the same period, the rate of open sinus surgery declined 40%, from 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21) to 0.11 (95% CI, 0.10-0.12). However, the per capita rate of beneficiaries diagnosed as having chronic rhinosinusitis declined by 1.4% over the study period. Further analysis by age cohort revealed significantly higher rates of surgery and diagnosis rates in the 65- to 69-year-old beneficiaries relative to older age groups. Over the study period, the per capita rate of diagnosis of chronic rhinosinusitis declined or remained stable across age groups. Despite this, all age groups showed increases in endoscopic sinus surgery rates. Conclusions Our findings indicate that endoscopic sinus surgery is increasingly becoming the mainstay of chronic rhinosinusitis management in the Medicare population. Because of the uncertainty regarding the outcomes of surgical vs medical management, the root causes of the observed increase in endoscopic sinus surgery rates need to be investigated. Given that sinusitis is a common diagnosis necessitating physician visits, comparative effectiveness studies examining medical vs surgical management would be warranted. PMID:20479369

  4. Changes in Patch Features May Exacerbate or Compensate for the Effect of Habitat Loss on Forest Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Magrach, Ainhoa; Larrinaga, Asier R.; Santamaría, Luis

    2011-01-01

    One and a half centuries after Darwin visited Chiloe Island, what he described as “…an island covered by one great forest…” has lost two-thirds of its forested areas. At this biodiversity hotspot, forest surface is becoming increasingly fragmented due to unregulated logging, clearing for pastures and replacement by exotic tree plantations. Decrease in patch size, increased isolation and “edge effects” can influence the persistence of forest species in remnant fragments. We assessed how these variables affect local density for six forest birds, chosen to include the most important seed dispersers (four species) and bird pollinators (two species, one of which acts also as seed disperser), plus the most common insectivore (Aphrastura spinicauda). Based on cue-count point surveys (8 points per fragment), we estimated bird densities for each species in 22 forest fragments of varying size, shape, isolation and internal-habitat structure (e.g. tree size and epiphyte cover). Bird densities varied with fragment connectivity (three species) and shape (three species), but none of the species was significantly affected by patch size. Satellite image analyses revealed that, from 1985 to 2008, forested area decreased by 8.8% and the remaining forest fragments became 16% smaller, 58–73% more isolated and 11–50% more regular. During that period, bird density estimates for the northern part of Chiloé (covering an area of 1214.75 km2) decreased for one species (elaenia), increased for another two (chucao and hummingbird) and did not vary for three (rayadito, thrust and blackbird). For the first three species, changes in patch features respectively exacerbated, balanced and overcame the effects of forest loss on bird population size (landscape-level abundance). Hence, changes in patch features can modulate the effect of habitat fragmentation on forest birds, suggesting that spatial planning (guided by spatially-explicit models) can be an effective tool to facilitate

  5. Changes in patch features may exacerbate or compensate for the effect of habitat loss on forest bird populations.

    PubMed

    Magrach, Ainhoa; Larrinaga, Asier R; Santamaría, Luis

    2011-01-01

    One and a half centuries after Darwin visited Chiloe Island, what he described as "…an island covered by one great forest…" has lost two-thirds of its forested areas. At this biodiversity hotspot, forest surface is becoming increasingly fragmented due to unregulated logging, clearing for pastures and replacement by exotic tree plantations. Decrease in patch size, increased isolation and "edge effects" can influence the persistence of forest species in remnant fragments. We assessed how these variables affect local density for six forest birds, chosen to include the most important seed dispersers (four species) and bird pollinators (two species, one of which acts also as seed disperser), plus the most common insectivore (Aphrastura spinicauda). Based on cue-count point surveys (8 points per fragment), we estimated bird densities for each species in 22 forest fragments of varying size, shape, isolation and internal-habitat structure (e.g. tree size and epiphyte cover). Bird densities varied with fragment connectivity (three species) and shape (three species), but none of the species was significantly affected by patch size. Satellite image analyses revealed that, from 1985 to 2008, forested area decreased by 8.8% and the remaining forest fragments became 16% smaller, 58-73% more isolated and 11-50% more regular. During that period, bird density estimates for the northern part of Chiloé (covering an area of 1214.75 km(2)) decreased for one species (elaenia), increased for another two (chucao and hummingbird) and did not vary for three (rayadito, thrust and blackbird). For the first three species, changes in patch features respectively exacerbated, balanced and overcame the effects of forest loss on bird population size (landscape-level abundance). Hence, changes in patch features can modulate the effect of habitat fragmentation on forest birds, suggesting that spatial planning (guided by spatially-explicit models) can be an effective tool to facilitate their

  6. Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

    PubMed

    Lutz, Wolfgang; K C, Samir

    2010-09-27

    The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

  7. A reduced progenitor pool population accounts for the rudimentary appearance of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium in birds.

    PubMed

    Charvet, Christine J

    2010-01-01

    To date, most studies comparing birds and mammals have focused on the similarities in brain development, architecture and connectivity. However, major differences in size, anatomy and organization exist in the telencephalon of adult birds and mammals. For instance, the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium of birds appear rudimentary compared with those of mammals. To identify the developmental processes that give rise to this difference in size and anatomy of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium, the thickness of the ventricular zone that encompasses these regions was measured in embryonic birds (i.e. chickens, sparrows) and mammals (i.e. rabbits, hedgehogs, shrews, platypus). Cumulative bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) labeling in chickens at embryonic day 7 and 8 was also used to examine levels of cell proliferation in the ventricular zone of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium. The study's main finding is that the ventricular zone of the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium is thinner in birds than in mammals. In chickens, the septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium ventricular zone harbor few proliferating (i.e. BrdU+) cells. Collectively, these findings suggest that a reduced progenitor pool population account for the 'rudimentary' appearance of the avian septum, medial pallium and dorsal pallium.

  8. Avian malaria in Hawaiian forest birds: Infection and population impacts across species and elevations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Atkinson, Carter T.; Hart, P. J.; LaPointe, Dennis

    2015-01-01

    Wildlife diseases can present significant threats to ecological systems and biological diversity, as well as domestic animal and human health. However, determining the dynamics of wildlife diseases and understanding the impact on host populations is a significant challenge. In Hawai‘i, there is ample circumstantial evidence that introduced avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) has played an important role in the decline and extinction of many native forest birds. However, few studies have attempted to estimate disease transmission and mortality, survival, and individual species impacts in this distinctive ecosystem. We combined multi-state capture-recapture (longitudinal) models with cumulative age-prevalence (cross-sectional) models to evaluate these patterns in Apapane, Hawai‘i Amakihi, and Iiwi in low-, mid-, and high-elevation forests on the island of Hawai‘i based on four longitudinal studies of 3–7 years in length. We found species-specific patterns of malaria prevalence, transmission, and mortality rates that varied among elevations, likely in response to ecological factors that drive mosquito abundance. Malaria infection was highest at low elevations, moderate at mid elevations, and limited in high-elevation forests. Infection rates were highest for Iiwi and Apapane, likely contributing to the absence of these species in low-elevation forests. Adult malaria fatality rates were highest for Iiwi, intermediate for Amakihi at mid and high elevations, and lower for Apapane; low-elevation Amakihi had the lowest malaria fatality, providing strong evidence of malaria tolerance in this low-elevation population. Our study indicates that hatch-year birds may have greater malaria infection and/or fatality rates than adults. Our study also found that mosquitoes prefer feeding on Amakihi rather than Apapane, but Apapane are likely a more important reservoir for malaria transmission to mosquitoes. Our approach, based on host abundance and infection rates, may be an

  9. Relationships between nesting populations of wading birds and habitat features along the Atlantic Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erwin, R.M.; Spendelow, J.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Williams, B.K.; Whitman, William R.; Meredith, William H.

    1987-01-01

    Using previously published atlas data for 122 mixed-species wading bird colonies on islands along the Atlantic coast (Maine to Florida, 1976-77), we examined relationships between population sizes of 11 species of egrets, herons, ibises, and wood storks (Mycteria americana) and nine habitat variables. On nautical charts, we measured four island characteristics (area, length, width, shape), three isolation factors (distances to nearest island, mainland, and a water barrier),, and two variables related to potential feeding habitat within 5 km of the center of the colony (wetland area and land-water interface, i.e., the linear distance between the marsh/upland and all water bodies within the same 5-km radius). One univariable and five multivariable .procedures were used to determine which habitat features were best related to population size .(all species combined). Multicollinearity problems among the variables limited interpretation for most procedures. Both univariable and the multivariable procedures indicated that land-water interface was the most important of the nine variables, but for all models, less than 10% of the total variance was explained (rz is less than 0.10). The size of the colony was not related to the amount of wetland area (within 5-km).per se. Colony data showed better 'structure' when examined on the basis of geographic and disturbance gradients. Population sizes of colonies near man-altered habitats were compared with those surrounded by relatively natural habitats in three geographic zones: north, middle, and south. Significant differences were found in colony size among the three zones (south largest) and between disturbance types. Surprisingly, in all three zones, colonies near man-altered areas were larger on average than those near more natural habitats in this region. A possible reason for this difference is suggested.

  10. Social and spatial effects on genetic variation between foraging flocks in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Radersma, Reinder; Garroway, Colin J; Santure, Anna W; de Cauwer, Isabelle; Farine, Damien R; Slate, Jon; Sheldon, Ben C

    2017-08-09

    Social interactions are rarely random. In some instances, animals exhibit homophily or heterophily, the tendency to interact with similar or dissimilar conspecifics, respectively. Genetic homophily and heterophily influence the evolutionary dynamics of populations, because they potentially affect sexual and social selection. Here, we investigate the link between social interactions and allele frequencies in foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) over three consecutive years. We constructed co-occurrence networks which explicitly described the splitting and merging of 85,602 flocks through time (fission-fusion dynamics), at 60 feeding sites. Of the 1,711 birds in those flocks, we genotyped 962 individuals at 4,701 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). By combining genomewide genotyping with repeated field observations of the same individuals, we were able to investigate links between social structure and allele frequencies at a much finer scale than was previously possible. We explicitly accounted for potential spatial effects underlying genetic structure at the population level. We modelled social structure and spatial configuration of great tit fission-fusion dynamics with eigenvector maps. Variance partitioning revealed that allele frequencies were strongly affected by group fidelity (explaining 27%-45% of variance) as individuals tended to maintain associations with the same conspecifics. These conspecifics were genetically more dissimilar than expected, shown by genomewide heterophily for pure social (i.e., space-independent) grouping preferences. Genomewide homophily was linked to spatial configuration, indicating spatial segregation of genotypes. We did not find evidence for homophily or heterophily for putative socially relevant candidate genes or any other SNP markers. Together, these results demonstrate the importance of distinguishing social and spatial processes in determining population structure. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Reproductive ratio for the local spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild bird populations of Europe, 2005-2008.

    PubMed

    Iglesias, I; Perez, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M; Muñoz, M J; Martínez, M; de la Torre, A

    2011-01-01

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has devastating consequences for the poultry industry of affected countries. Control of HPAI has been impaired by the role of wildlife species that act as disease reservoirs and as a potential source of infection for domestic populations. The reproductive ratio (R₀) of HPAI was quantified in nine clusters of outbreaks detected in wild birds in Europe (2005-2008) for which population data were not available. The median value of R₀ was similar (1·1-3·4) for the nine clusters and it was about tenfold smaller than the value estimated for poultry in The Netherlands in 2003. Results presented here will be useful to parameterize models for spread of HPAI in wild birds and to design effective prevention programmes for the European poultry sector. The method is suitable to estimate R₀ in the absence of population data, which is a condition typically observed for many wildlife and certain domestic species and systems.

  12. A 20-year recount of bird populations along a Great Basin elevational gradient

    Treesearch

    John Woodyard; Melissa Renfro; Bruce L. Welch; Kristina Heister

    2003-01-01

    During 1981 and 1982, Dean E. Medin conducted bird censuses along an elevational gradient (5,250 to 11, 400 feet) near and on Wheeler Peak of east-central Nevada. Twenty years later we conducted bird census on seven of his 12 plots. Data from the bristlecone pine - Pinus longaeva - plot were collected in 1981 but not published (data on file with the...

  13. Standardized North American marsh bird monitoring protocol

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conway, Courtney J.

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the population status of many marsh-dependent birds in North America but recent efforts have focused on collecting more reliable information and estimates of population trends. As part of that effort, a standardized survey protocol was developed in 1999 that provided guidance for conducting marsh bird surveys throughout North America such that data would be consistent among locations. The original survey protocol has been revised to provide greater clarification on many issues as the number of individuals using the protocol has grown. The Standardized North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Protocol instructs surveyors to conduct an initial 5-minute passive point-count survey followed by a series of 1-minute segments during which marsh bird calls are broadcast into the marsh following a standardized approach. Surveyors are instructed to record each individual bird from the suite of 26 focal species that are present in their local area on separate lines of a datasheet and estimate the distance to each bird. Also, surveyors are required to record whether each individual bird was detected within each 1-minute subsegment of the survey. These data allow analysts to use several different approaches for estimating detection probability. The Standardized North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Protocol provides detailed instructions that explain the field methods used to monitor marsh birds in North America.

  14. Geographic variation in onset of singing among populations of two migratory birds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordo, Oscar; Sanz, Juan José; Lobo, Jorge M.

    2008-07-01

    Even though singing plays a major role in bird communication, environmental variables affecting the geographic patterns observed in the variation of singing onset within large areas have not previously been studied. The singing phenology of two long-distance migrants, the Cuckoo Cuculus canorus and the Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos, recorded in thousands of sites throughout Spain, was related to a set of 51 explanatory variables by partial least squares regression. Observed variability in singing onset among localities follows spatial trends on an Iberian scale at 10 × 10 km resolution, and was well modelled by some environmental variables. Of these variables, climate was the most influential. Males of both species sang earlier in warmer and drier sites. Males who were near the Straits of Gibraltar and in the southern Iberian basins, which are geographic gradients closely related with climate in the Iberian Peninsula, were also heard earlier. Most environmental variables affected the singing activity of both species equally, i.e., the same environmental gradients are linked to singing onset. However, the models' predictions indicated differences in the geographical pattern in singing onset between both species, mainly related to their rates of progression during spring migration through Spain. Local variables, such as land uses, vegetation productivity or species abundance, played a minor role on singing onset spatial patterns. Therefore, models' composition supports the hypothesis that singing onset is a good proxy of arrival dates in migratory species, since those variables related to indirect effects on singing onset phenology through migratory progression and arrival to the breeding grounds showed the highest influence.

  15. Bergmann's rule and climate change revisited: disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Teplitsky, Céline; Mills, James A; Alho, Jussi S; Yarrall, John W; Merilä, Juha

    2008-09-09

    Ecological responses to on-going climate change are numerous, diverse, and taxonomically widespread. However, with one exception, the relative roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution as mechanisms in explaining these responses are largely unknown. Several recent studies have uncovered evidence for temporal declines in mean body sizes of birds and mammals, and these responses have been interpreted as evidence for microevolution in the context of Bergmann's rule-an ecogeographic rule predicting an inverse correlation between temperature and mean body size in endothermic animals. We used a dataset of individually marked red-billed gulls (Larus novaehollandiae scopulinus) from New Zealand to document phenotypic and genetic changes in mean body mass over a 47-year (1958-2004) period. We found that, whereas the mean body mass had decreased over time as ambient temperatures increased, analyses of breeding values estimated with an "animal model" approach showed no evidence for any genetic change. These results indicate that the frequently observed climate-change-related responses in mean body size of animal populations might be due to phenotypic plasticity, rather than to genetic microevolutionary responses.

  16. The Impact of Improved Population Life Expectancy in Survival Trend Analyses of Specific Diseases.

    PubMed

    van Walraven, Carl

    2016-08-01

    Survival trend analyses examine mortality outcomes over time. The impact of conducting survival trend analyses without accounting for improved population survival has not been systematically studied. The 1-year risk of death in the 100 most common hospital admissions for Ontario adults in 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2009 was determined. Generalized linear models were used to determine if adjusted death risk changed significantly over time with and without accounting for population survival. The statistical significance of temporal trends in survival changed after accounting for population life expectancy in 16 diagnoses (16 percent) (in 13 of 55 diagnoses, statistically significant decreasing mortality trends became insignificant; in 3 of 15 diagnoses, insignificant trends changed to a significant increase in mortality risk over time). These results highlight the importance of accounting for population life-expectancy changes in survival trend analyses. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  17. Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John; Boomer, G. Scott; Devers, Patrick K.; Garrettson, Pamela R.

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) are important harvested birds in the Atlantic Flyway (AF) that are difficult to detect during aerial surveys because they prefer forested habitat. We integrated Wood Duck count data from a ground-plot survey in the northeastern U.S. with AF-wide BBS, banding, parts collection, and harvest data to derive estimates of population size for the AF. Overlapping results between the smaller-scale intensive ground-plot survey and the BBS in the northeastern U.S. provided a means for scaling BBS indices to the breeding population size estimates. We applied these scaling factors to BBS results for portions of the AF lacking intensive surveys. Banding data provided estimates of annual survival and harvest rates; the latter, when combined with parts-collection data, provided estimates of recruitment. We used the harvest data to estimate fall population size. Our estimates of breeding population size and variability from the integrated population model (N̄ = 0.99 million, SD = 0.04) were similar to estimates of breeding population size based solely on data from the AF ground-plot surveys and the BBS (N̄ = 1.01 million, SD = 0.04) from 1998 to 2015. Integrating BBS data with other data provided reliable population size estimates for Wood Ducks at a scale useful for harvest and habitat management in the AF, and allowed us to derive estimates of important demographic parameters (e.g., seasonal survival rates, sex ratio) that were not directly informed by data.

  18. Chicago Children and Youth 1990-2010: Changing Population Trends and their Implications for Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goerge, Robert; Dilts, John; Yang, Duck-Hye; Wasserman, Miriam; Clary, Anne

    2007-01-01

    This report draws on demographic data to examine and project trends in the size and composition of the child population in all seventy-seven Chicago communities up to the year 2010. The report highlights the changing age mix of Chicago children and provides some context in which to consider these demographic trends. It describes population changes…

  19. Chicago Children and Youth 1990-2010: Changing Population Trends and their Implications for Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goerge, Robert; Dilts, John; Yang, Duck-Hye; Wasserman, Miriam; Clary, Anne

    2007-01-01

    This report draws on demographic data to examine and project trends in the size and composition of the child population in all seventy-seven Chicago communities up to the year 2010. The report highlights the changing age mix of Chicago children and provides some context in which to consider these demographic trends. It describes population changes…

  20. Mississippi's Farming & Nonfarming Population: A Comparison of Characteristics and Trends, 1950 to 1970.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryant, Ellen S.

    Trends and changes in Mississippi farms, farmers, and farm populations were investigated for the period between 1950 and 1970 and comparisons were made between the farm population and that of the urban and rural nonfarm segments in terms of growth trends and 1970 characteristics. Data were drawn from both the Censuses of Agriculture (taken at five…

  1. Supplementary feeding of wild birds indirectly affects ground beetle populations in suburban gardens.

    PubMed

    Orros, Melanie E; Thomas, Rebecca L; Holloway, Graham J; Fellowes, Mark D E

    Supplementary feeding of wild birds by domestic garden-holders is a globally widespread and popular form of human-wildlife interaction, particularly in urban areas. Vast amounts of energy are thus being added to garden ecosystems. However, the potential indirect effects of this activity on non-avian species have been little studied to date, with the only two previous studies taking place under experimentally manipulated conditions. Here we present the first evidence of a localised depletive effect of wild bird feeding on ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in suburban gardens under the usual feeding patterns of the garden-holders. We trapped significantly fewer ground beetles directly under bird-feeding stations than in matched areas of habitat away from feeders. Video analysis also revealed significantly higher activity by ground-foraging birds under the feeding stations than in the control areas. Small mammal trapping revealed no evidence that these species differ in abundance between gardens with and without bird feeders. We therefore suggest that local increases in ground-foraging activity by bird species whose diets encompass arthropods as well as seed material are responsible for the reduction in ground beetle numbers. Our work therefore illustrates that providing food for wild birds can have indirect negative effects on palatable prey species under typical conditions.

  2. Trends in population blood pressure and determinant factors for population blood pressure.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Ulla Overgaard

    2017-03-01

    Strategies to reduce the burden of blood pressure attributable diseases require knowledge of secular trend in PBP and its determinants. The issues were investigated in the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The design of CCHS is a repeated measures study. Such designs are uniquely suited to studying changes of an outcome and what risk factors may be associated with that outcome. Repeated measures studies are very well suited for trend analysis by using mixed effect analyses. SBP decreased about 2 mmHg in 25 years. The risk factors age, gender and BMI were found valid as determinant factors for secular trends in SBP. In addition, the following factors were identified: household income and the interactions ''gender*age'' and ''survey*age''. The interaction ''gender*age'' stated that the difference between SBP in the two genders was great in the young individuals and diminished by age. The interaction ''survey*age'' stated that SBP in the young individuals decreased more with survey than SBP in the older individuals. Thus, the 20 years old subjects in survey 2, 3 and 4 have lower SBP than the 20 years old subjects in preceding surveys. The slopes were less steep in higher ages. In the group of elderly and old subjects the trend is partly explained by treatment bias because more and more subjects leave the untreated group and start treatment. The factor ''household income'' was significant only in the female population and stated that high-income women had lower SBP and a more beneficial secular trend in SBP than low-income women. Marital status, self-reported physical exercise and alcohol intake were not significant factors. A number of factors, that are interesting in relation to SBP, were not included in the CCHS and therefore not investigated. Among them are salt intake, childhood factors, genetic factors and the DASH diet. A survival study was performed to investigate the mortality rate in relation to SBP changes during the observation period. A Cox regression analysis

  3. USE OF CITIZEN BIRD POPULATION MONITORING DATA FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Birds are among the most conspicuous and easily monitored indicators of environmental health and change. Although volunteer avian monitoring ('citizen science') programs provide unique opportunities to gather data at fine and broad geographic scales simultaneously, and over long...

  4. Genetically diverse coronaviruses in captive bird populations in a Brazilian zoological park.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Tereza C; Teixeira, Maria Cecília B; Gomes, Deriane E; Jerez, Antônio José

    2011-02-01

    This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of coronaviruses (CoVs) in captive birds placed inside a zoological park in Brazil. The role of captive birds in the epidemiology of CoVs in the tropics is poorly understood. A total of 25 (n=25) different species were tested for viral RNA using individual fecal samples collected from healthy birds. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction targeting the 3' untranslated region was used to detect CoV RNA, and positive samples were submitted for sequence analysis. The phylogenetic search revealed nine mutations in the black shouldered peafowl (Pavus cristatus) CoV sequence, which clustered separately from samples previously described in England. This is the first report on the detection of the CoV genome in captive birds in Brazil.

  5. USE OF CITIZEN BIRD POPULATION MONITORING DATA FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Birds are among the most conspicuous and easily monitored indicators of environmental health and change. Although volunteer avian monitoring ('citizen science') programs provide unique opportunities to gather data at fine and broad geographic scales simultaneously, and over long...

  6. Integrating paleoecology and genetics of bird populations in two sky island archipelagos

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, John E; Bowen, Bonnie S; Smith, Thomas B

    2008-01-01

    Background Genetic tests of paleoecological hypotheses have been rare, partly because recent genetic divergence is difficult to detect and time. According to fossil plant data, continuous woodland in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico became fragmented during the last 10,000 years, as warming caused cool-adapted species to retreat to high elevations. Most genetic studies of resulting 'sky islands' have either failed to detect recent divergence or have found discordant evidence for ancient divergence. We test this paleoecological hypothesis for the region with intraspecific mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite data from sky-island populations of a sedentary bird, the Mexican jay (Aphelocoma ultramarina). We predicted that populations on different sky islands would share common, ancestral alleles that existed during the last glaciation, but that populations on each sky island, owing to their isolation, would contain unique variants of postglacial origin. We also predicted that divergence times estimated from corrected genetic distance and a coalescence model would post-date the last glacial maximum. Results Our results provide multiple independent lines of support for postglacial divergence, with the predicted pattern of shared and unique mitochondrial DNA haplotypes appearing in two independent sky-island archipelagos, and most estimates of divergence time based on corrected genetic distance post-dating the last glacial maximum. Likewise, an isolation model based on multilocus gene coalescence indicated postglacial divergence of five pairs of sky islands. In contrast to their similar recent histories, the two archipelagos had dissimilar historical patterns in that sky islands in Arizona showed evidence for older divergence, suggesting different responses to the last glaciation. Conclusion This study is one of the first to provide explicit support from genetic data for a postglacial divergence scenario predicted by one of the best paleoecological records in the

  7. Integrating paleoecology and genetics of bird populations in two sky island archipelagos.

    PubMed

    McCormack, John E; Bowen, Bonnie S; Smith, Thomas B

    2008-06-27

    Genetic tests of paleoecological hypotheses have been rare, partly because recent genetic divergence is difficult to detect and time. According to fossil plant data, continuous woodland in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico became fragmented during the last 10,000 years, as warming caused cool-adapted species to retreat to high elevations. Most genetic studies of resulting 'sky islands' have either failed to detect recent divergence or have found discordant evidence for ancient divergence. We test this paleoecological hypothesis for the region with intraspecific mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite data from sky-island populations of a sedentary bird, the Mexican jay (Aphelocoma ultramarina). We predicted that populations on different sky islands would share common, ancestral alleles that existed during the last glaciation, but that populations on each sky island, owing to their isolation, would contain unique variants of postglacial origin. We also predicted that divergence times estimated from corrected genetic distance and a coalescence model would post-date the last glacial maximum. Our results provide multiple independent lines of support for postglacial divergence, with the predicted pattern of shared and unique mitochondrial DNA haplotypes appearing in two independent sky-island archipelagos, and most estimates of divergence time based on corrected genetic distance post-dating the last glacial maximum. Likewise, an isolation model based on multilocus gene coalescence indicated postglacial divergence of five pairs of sky islands. In contrast to their similar recent histories, the two archipelagos had dissimilar historical patterns in that sky islands in Arizona showed evidence for older divergence, suggesting different responses to the last glaciation. This study is one of the first to provide explicit support from genetic data for a postglacial divergence scenario predicted by one of the best paleoecological records in the world. Our results

  8. Century-scale Changes in Environmental Synchrony and Variability and their Effects on Populations of Birds and Reproduction of Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenig, W.

    2016-12-01

    The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. Thus far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in environmental spatial synchrony-the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape-or environmental variability, despite the importance of these factors as drivers of population rescue and extinction and reproductive dynamics of both animal and plant populations. We quantified spatial synchrony of widespread North American wintering birds species using Audubon Christmas Bird Counts over the past 50 years and seed set variability (mast fruiting) among trees over the past century and found that both spatial synchrony of the birds and seed set variability have significantly increased over these time periods. The first of these results was mirrored by significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature across North America, primarily during the summer, while the second is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is resulting in greater seed set variability. These findings suggest the potential for temporal changes in envioronmental synchrony and variability to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena by influencing the probability of population rescue and extinction and by affecting ecosystem processes that rely on the resource pulses provided by mast fruiting plants.

  9. Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations.

    PubMed

    Vedder, Oscar; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Sheldon, Ben C

    2013-07-01

    Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.

  10. Quantitative Assessment of the Importance of Phenotypic Plasticity in Adaptation to Climate Change in Wild Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Vedder, Oscar; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Sheldon, Ben C.

    2013-01-01

    Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations. PMID:23874152

  11. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  12. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  13. A Method for Investigating Population Declines of Migratory Birds Using Stable Isotopes: Origins of Harvested Lesser Scaup in North America

    PubMed Central

    Hobson, Keith A.; Wunder, Michael B.; Van Wilgenburg, Steven L.; Clark, Robert G.; Wassenaar, Leonard I.

    2009-01-01

    Background Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging. Methodology/Findings Here we used hydrogen isotopes (δD) to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999–2000 (n = 412) and 2000–2001 (n = 455). We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, δD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of δD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual δD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys. Conclusions/Significance Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60°N) versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds) synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography. PMID:19946360

  14. Effects of land use on bird populations and pest control services on coffee farms

    PubMed Central

    Railsback, Steven F.; Johnson, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Global increases in both agriculture and biodiversity awareness raise a key question: Should cropland and biodiversity habitat be separated, or integrated in mixed land uses? Ecosystem services by wildlife make this question more complex. For example, birds benefit agriculture by preying on pest insects, but other habitat is needed to maintain the birds. Resulting land use questions include what areas and arrangements of habitat support sufficient birds to control pests, whether this pest control offsets the reduced cropland, and the comparative benefits of “land sharing” (i.e., mixed cropland and habitat) vs. “land sparing” (i.e., separate areas of intensive agriculture and habitat). Such questions are difficult to answer using field studies alone, so we use a simulation model of Jamaican coffee farms, where songbirds suppress the coffee berry borer (CBB). Simulated birds select habitat and prey in five habitat types: intact forest, trees (including forest fragments), shade coffee, sun coffee, and unsuitable habitat. The trees habitat type appears to be especially important, providing efficient foraging and roosting sites near coffee plots. Small areas of trees (but not forest alone) could support a sufficient number of birds to suppress CBB in sun coffee; the degree to which trees are dispersed within coffee had little effect. In simulations without trees, shade coffee supported sufficient birds to offset its lower yield. High areas of both trees and shade coffee reduced pest control because CBB was less often profitable prey. Because of the pest control service provided by birds, land sharing was predicted to be more beneficial than land sparing in this system. PMID:24711377

  15. Effects of land use on bird populations and pest control services on coffee farms.

    PubMed

    Railsback, Steven F; Johnson, Matthew D

    2014-04-22

    Global increases in both agriculture and biodiversity awareness raise a key question: Should cropland and biodiversity habitat be separated, or integrated in mixed land uses? Ecosystem services by wildlife make this question more complex. For example, birds benefit agriculture by preying on pest insects, but other habitat is needed to maintain the birds. Resulting land use questions include what areas and arrangements of habitat support sufficient birds to control pests, whether this pest control offsets the reduced cropland, and the comparative benefits of "land sharing" (i.e., mixed cropland and habitat) vs. "land sparing" (i.e., separate areas of intensive agriculture and habitat). Such questions are difficult to answer using field studies alone, so we use a simulation model of Jamaican coffee farms, where songbirds suppress the coffee berry borer (CBB). Simulated birds select habitat and prey in five habitat types: intact forest, trees (including forest fragments), shade coffee, sun coffee, and unsuitable habitat. The trees habitat type appears to be especially important, providing efficient foraging and roosting sites near coffee plots. Small areas of trees (but not forest alone) could support a sufficient number of birds to suppress CBB in sun coffee; the degree to which trees are dispersed within coffee had little effect. In simulations without trees, shade coffee supported sufficient birds to offset its lower yield. High areas of both trees and shade coffee reduced pest control because CBB was less often profitable prey. Because of the pest control service provided by birds, land sharing was predicted to be more beneficial than land sparing in this system.

  16. Point counts of birds: what are we estimating?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1995-01-01

    Point counts of birds are made for many reasons, including estimating local densities, determining population trends, assessing habitat preferences, and exploiting the activities of recreational birdwatchers. Problems arise unless there is a clear understanding of what point counts mean in terms of actual populations of birds. Criteria for conducting point counts depend strongly on the purposes to which they will be put. This paper provides a simple mathematical conceptualization of point counts and illustrates graphically some of the influences on them.

  17. Hierarchical models and bayesian analysis of bird survey information

    Treesearch

    John R. Sauer; William A. Link; J. Andrew Royle

    2005-01-01

    Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline...

  18. Chronic malaria infections increase family inequalities and reduce parental fitness: experimental evidence from a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Knowles, S C L; Palinauskas, V; Sheldon, B C

    2010-03-01

    Avian malaria parasites (Plasmodium) occur commonly in wild birds and are an increasingly popular model system for understanding host-parasite co-evolution. However, whether these parasites have fitness consequences for hosts in endemic areas is much debated, particularly since wild-caught individuals almost always harbour chronic infections of very low parasite density. We used the anti-malarial drug Malarone to test experimentally for fitness effects of chronic malaria infection in a wild population of breeding blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). Medication caused a pronounced reduction in Plasmodium infection intensity, usually resulting in complete clearance of these parasites from the blood, as revealed by quantitative PCR. Positive effects of medication on malaria-infected birds were found at multiple stages during breeding, with medicated females showing higher hatching success, provisioning rates and fledging success compared to controls. Most strikingly, we found that treatment of maternal malaria infections strongly altered within-family differences, with reduced inequality in hatching probability and fledging mass within broods reared by medicated females. These within-brood effects appear to explain higher fledging success among medicated females and are consistent with a model of parental optimism in which smaller (marginal) offspring can be successfully raised to independence if additional resources become available during the breeding attempt. Overall, these results demonstrate that chronic avian malaria infections, far from being benign, can have significant effects on host fitness and may thus constitute an important selection pressure in wild bird populations.

  19. Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    1977-01-01

    Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

  20. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Treesearch

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  1. Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

    PubMed

    Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

    2016-04-27

    Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size.

  2. Population, consumption trends call for new environmental policies.

    PubMed

    1998-04-01

    This article highlights the need for new environmental policies. 38 industrialized countries gave commitments to protect the environment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But, a report on "Population Change, Resources, and the Environment" indicated that high levels of resource consumption in developed countries are a problem also, as are the complex environmental consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries. Global population is expected to include at least another 2 billion people by the mid-21st century. This growth will occur mostly in countries that lack the resources to invest in sound environmental policies and that may not adopt economic growth with little environmental impact. Additional population requires additional food, water, and shelter. The links between the environment and population include social structures, political systems, and lifestyles. Population is increasing the fastest in countries with the least efficient food production and distribution systems. Access to safe drinking water is constrained by poverty, poor infrastructure, and pollution of waterways and groundwater. A major share of economic growth will occur in cities. Population shifts to cities will create demand for health care and education, and encroach on surrounding farmland. Global marine fish stocks are being depleted. Logging and agriculture threaten forest resources. The report stresses that government policies that minimize the environmental impact of humans should promote recycling, eliminate subsidies that distort environmental costs of scarce resources, and implement better forest and fishery management. Politicians must think globally and act locally.

  3. Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues.

    PubMed

    Angel, Jacqueline L; Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

    2016-12-07

    Although all nations in the America's face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico's population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world's eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the "demographic dividend" of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico.

  4. Population Trend of the World’s Monitored Seabirds, 1950-2010

    PubMed Central

    Karpouzi, Vasiliki; Pauly, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Seabird population changes are good indicators of long-term and large-scale change in marine ecosystems, and important because of their many impacts on marine ecosystems. We assessed the population trend of the world’s monitored seabirds (1950–2010) by compiling a global database of seabird population size records and applying multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) modeling to estimate the overall population trend of the portion of the population with sufficient data (i.e., at least five records). This monitored population represented approximately 19% of the global seabird population. We found the monitored portion of the global seabird population to have declined overall by 69.7% between 1950 and 2010. This declining trend may reflect the global seabird population trend, given the large and apparently representative sample. Furthermore, the largest declines were observed in families containing wide-ranging pelagic species, suggesting that pan-global populations may be more at risk than shorter-ranging coastal populations. PMID:26058068

  5. Seasonality of Ankle Swelling: Population Symptom Reporting Using Google Trends.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fangwei; Allan, G Michael; Korownyk, Christina; Kolber, Michael; Flook, Nigel; Sternberg, Harvey; Garrison, Scott

    2016-07-01

    In our experience, complaints of ankle swelling are more common in summer, typically from patients with no obvious cardiovascular disease. Surprisingly, this observation has never been reported. To objectively establish this phenomenon, we sought evidence of seasonality in the public's Internet searches for ankle swelling. Our data, obtained from Google Trends, consisted of all related Google searches in the United States from January 4, 2004, to January 26, 2016. Consistent with our expectations and confirmed by similar data for Australia, Internet searches for information on ankle swelling are highly seasonal (highest in midsummer), with seasonality explaining 86% of search volume variability.

  6. Ecological Consequences of Island Colonization by Southwest Pacific Birds, II. The Effect of Species Diversity on Total Population Density

    PubMed Central

    Diamond, Jared M.

    1970-01-01

    Among southwest Pacific birds colonizing a species-poor island from a species-rich island, spatial expansion of the niche to include a wider range of altitudes, habitats, or vertical strata is often an immediate response, while changes in foraging techniques and diet usually occur more slowly and require genotypic change. Despite occupation of spatially broader niches by some colonizing species and increases in abundance by others, the total population density of the whole avifauna is up to nine times lower on a species-poor island than in a comparable habitat on a species-rich island. Total population density varies among islands approximately linearly with the number of species in the lowlands, supralinearly at higher elevations. Part of the explanation is that many birds on small islands expand into niche space which is suboptimal for them and from which they would be excluded by species utilizing this niche space optimally on a species-rich island. The other suggested explanation is an intrinsic inefficiency or loss of fitness among populations on small Pacific islands compared to large-island populations, due to impoverished gene pools, reduced selection pressure, and low degree of endemism. PMID:5275372

  7. Bird Flu

    MedlinePlus

    ... like people, get the flu. Bird flu viruses infect birds, including chickens, other poultry, and wild birds such as ducks. Usually bird flu viruses only infect other birds. It is rare for people to ...

  8. Effects of observers using different methods upon the total population estimates of two resident island birds

    Treesearch

    Sheila Conant; Mark S. Collins; C. John Ralph

    1981-01-01

    During a 5-week study of the Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch, we censused birds using these techniques: two line transect methods, a variable-distance circular plot method, and spot-mapping of territories (millerbirds only). Densities derived from these methods varied greatly. Due to differences in behavior, it appeared that the two species reacted differently to the...

  9. MULTIDRUG RESISTANCE IN WILD BIRD POPULATIONS: IMPORTANCE OF THE FOOD CHAIN.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Andreia; Simões, Romeo; Oliveira, Manuela; Vaz-Pires, Paulo; Brandão, Ricardo; da Costa, Paulo Martins

    2015-12-01

    The presence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli has recently been reported in wild birds (gulls and birds of prey) that had no apparent exposure to antimicrobials. Little work has been done to assess the role of the food chain in the emergence and spread of MDR E. coli . In this study, we evaluated the presence of MDR E. coli in 29 fecal samples collected from wild birds living in a rehabilitation center (the center receives injured animals found in their natural habitat) and in eight feed samples. In total, 166 E. coli isolates were obtained: 129 from cloacal swabs and 37 from raw feed samples. The antimicrobial resistance profile of these isolates was determined, and we found that 75 isolates showed resistance to five or more drugs, resulting in a total of 38 different antimicrobial resistance patterns. Subsequently, the molecular characterization of 36 isolates, performed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, revealed a great similarity between isolates collected from various species of birds and also between these last ones and the ones found in their feed samples.

  10. Phenotype-associated inbreeding biases estimates of inbreeding depression in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Becker, P J J; Hegelbach, J; Keller, L F; Postma, E

    2016-01-01

    Inbreeding depression is usually quantified by regressing individual phenotypic values on inbreeding coefficients, implicitly assuming there is no correlation between an individual's phenotype and the kinship coefficient to its mate. If such an association between parental phenotype and parental kinship exists, and if the trait of interest is heritable, estimates of inbreeding depression can be biased. Here we first derive the expected bias as a function of the covariance between mean parental breeding value and parental kinship. Subsequently, we use simulated data to confirm the existence of this bias, and show that it can be accounted for in a quantitative genetic animal model. Finally, we use long-term individual-based data for white-throated dippers (Cinclus cinclus), a bird species in which inbreeding is relatively common, to obtain an empirical estimate of this bias. We show that during part of the study period, parents of inbred birds had shorter wings than those of outbred birds, and as wing length is heritable, inbred individuals were smaller, independent of any inbreeding effects. This resulted in the overestimation of inbreeding effects. Similarly, during a period when parents of inbred birds had longer wings, we found that inbreeding effects were underestimated. We discuss how such associations may have arisen in this system, and why they are likely to occur in others, too. Overall, we demonstrate how less biased estimates of inbreeding depression can be obtained within a quantitative genetic framework, and suggest that inbreeding and additive genetic effects should be accounted for simultaneously whenever possible.

  11. Landscape Level Effects on Forest Bird Populations in Eastern Broadleaf Forests: Principles for Conservation

    Treesearch

    Frank R. Thompson III

    2005-01-01

    Forest fragmentation, urbanization, and forest management are important issues for bird conservation in the eastern broadleaf forest of North America. Fragmentation of forest by agricultural and developed land uses increases the numbers of Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) and nest predators in the landscape, which results in decreased...

  12. [Strategy on control of births by population trend (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Kong, S K; Jang, Y S

    1982-12-01

    The birth control program was based on the idea that an individual should want a small family and pregnancy should be prevented if a child is not wanted. Birth control program goals were, therefore, conducted through an educational enlightenment of family planning programs and contraceptive services provided to the targetted groups. The service delivery system has been modified to reflect the socio-situational changes over the last 20 years. These programs have, however, faced difficulties because of unlimited contraceptive service delivery systems and a lack of diversity in the services offered. The dynamic socioeconomic development achieved during the last 20 years (1962-81) and the steady implementation of birth control measures have apparently had an impact on the population structure and distribution. At the same time, the practice of abortion and present acceptance rates make us wonder whether or not present services are meeting actual needs. The objectives of this study were to analyze behavioral changes in births, and to examine how population dynamics have changed. Recommendations for future birth control policy were made. During the 1960s, the population maintained a high 3% increase rate while the death rate gradually decreased. However, during 1970-80, birthrate and death rate decreased by 50%. The population structure has changed with younger population ratios decreasing and the elder population increasing. The increase in total population and the change in the age structure will increase the reproductive population in spite of the concentrated family planning efforts for the reproductive age group. Reproductive women have been increasing and the population ratio of women between ages 15-49 was 23% in 1960 and will increase to 26% in 1980 and 27% in 1990. This increase in the ratio of eligible women will function inversely to population decline. The ratio of higher fertility age groups in the total population has increased since 1980 so they should be

  13. Effect of air and noise pollution on species diversity and population density of forest birds at Lalpahari, West Bengal, India.

    PubMed

    Saha, Dulal C; Padhy, Pratap K

    2011-11-15

    The Rajmahal-type quality stones for building purposes are found abundantly in Birbhum district, West Bengal, India, where stone mining and crushing have become the main industrial activity. Although crusher dust is injurious to health, demand for crushed stone is ever-increasing as a result of rapid infrastructural growth in the country. Most of the crusher units at Rampurhat are situated along the roadways adjacent to forest under Tumboni Beat of Rampurhat Range of Birbhum Forest Division. Excessive load of air pollution in this area has led to degradation of this forest. The status of the ambient air and noise level was evaluated. The effect of air and noise pollution on abundance and variability of birds in this forest have been compared to an almost non-polluted forest of the same bio-geographic zone. Both species diversity and population density of birds were found to decrease in the polluted forest, especially in the areas adjacent to crushers. For comparing the pollution status of two different forest sites and for establishing whether the density of birds have any correlation between the sites, the Student's t-test and the chi-square test were applied respectively. Most of the results proved to be significant. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Bird community composition

    Treesearch

    T.J. Antrobus; M.P. Guilfoyle; W.C. Barrow; Paul B. Hamel; J.S. Wakeley

    2000-01-01

    Neotropical migrants are birds that breed in North America and winter primarily in Central and South America. Longterm population studies of birds in the Eastern United States indicated declines of some forest-dwelling birds, many of which winter in the Neotropics (Peterjohn and others 1995). These declines were attributed to loss of wintering and breeding habitat due...

  15. Breeding bird communities

    Treesearch

    Vanessa L. Artman; Randy Dettmers

    2003-01-01

    Prescribed burning is being applied on an experimental basis to restore and maintain mixed-oak communities in southern Ohio. This chapter describes baseline conditions for the breeding bird community prior to prescribed burning. We surveyed breeding bird populations at four study areas using the territory-mapping method. We observed 35 bird species during the surveys....

  16. Interpreting population estimates of birds following pesticide applications--behavior of male starlings exposed to an organophosphate pesticide

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grue, C.E.; Shipley, B.J.; Ralph, C. John; Scott, J. Michael

    1981-01-01

    We determined activity budgets for 10 pairs of captive male Starlings between 7 May and 18 July 1980. Our objective was to quantify changes in behavior after exposure to an organophosphate (OP) pesticide and to assess the impact of changes in behavior on the interpretation of population estimates of birds following pesticide applications. We observed each pair of males for an hour at 07:30 and 09:30 for four days and classified their behavior into one of four categories: flying, perching, foraging, or singing and displaying. At 06:30 on day 2, one male received a single oral dose of 2.5 mg dicrotophos (3-hydroxy-N, N-dimethyl-cis-crotonamide dimethyl phosphate) per kg of body weight; the other male received an equivalent exposure of corn oil. Changes in the activity budgets of OP-dosed and control males were compared using t-tests. Activity of OP-dosed males was significantly (P _ 0.05) reduced within the 2-4 h following exposure. OP-dosed males spent more time perching (46.1%) than controls and less time flying (-96.6%), foraging (-28.5%), and singing and displaying (-49.5%). The frequency of perching (-75.3%), flying (-83.8%), foraging (-54.1%), and singing and displaying (- 59.2%) was significantly reduced. Activity in OP-dosed males returned to normal by 26-28 h posttreatment. Results suggest that movement and vocalization may be significantly reduced in birds exposed to organophosphate and carbamate pesticides. Conventional censusing techniques and population estimating procedures may, therefore, be inadequate to assess changes in bird populations after pesticide applications because of the difficulty in separating decreases in density due to mortality or emigration from reductions in activity.

  17. Temporal and latitudinal trends of p,p'-DDE in eggs and carcasses of North American birds from 1980 to 2005.

    PubMed

    Mora, Miguel A; Durgin, Bryce; Hudson, Lacy B; Jones, Edward

    2016-06-01

    The use of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDT) in agriculture in the United States and Canada was prohibited in the early 1970s; however, it continued to be used restrictively in Mexico until 2000. Forty years later, 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl) ethylene (p,p'-DDE), continues to be detected in eggs and bird carcasses in North America. The use of DDE has been associated with reproductive failure of several avian species, primarily through eggshell thinning. To assess the temporal and latitudinal distribution of p,p'-DDE in North America, the authors examined DDE concentrations reported in bird tissues in the scientific literature published between 1980 and 2009. Overall, the majority of supported models suggested that DDE concentrations in birds were greater in the upper mid-latitudes (38°-48°) than in other parts of North America. However, spatial trends of DDE seemed to be influenced by regions with large amounts of data, such as the Great Lakes area. Concentrations of p,p'-DDE in eggs averaged 2.5 μg/g, 3.2 μg/g, and 29.5 μg/g wet weight in 1980 and decreased to 1.64 μg/g, 0.87 μg/g, and 1.01 μg/g wet weight by the mid-2000s for the central, eastern, and western North America regions, respectively. The results indicate that, over time, all DDE residues observed in birds have decreased significantly in North America. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1340-1348. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  18. Developing indicators for European birds

    PubMed Central

    Gregory, Richard D; van Strien, Arco; Vorisek, Petr; Gmelig Meyling, Adriaan W; Noble, David G; Foppen, Ruud P.B; Gibbons, David W

    2005-01-01

    The global pledge to deliver ‘a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010’ is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat. PMID:15814345

  19. World population trends and their significance for contraceptive research.

    PubMed

    Kegan, L R

    1982-01-01

    The total population of the world has grown from 2.5 billion in 1930 to 4.5 billion in 1982 and despite the fertility declines in developing countries world population is expected to increase another 2 billion to over 6 billion by the year 2000. This growth has caused in many countries food scarcity, unemployment, social unrest, political instability, and mass migration as well as inflation and environmental problems. There is an international consensus that access to contraceptive services is a basic human right. In the case of Indonesia, Thailand, China, and Sri Lanka, there is increasing evidence that government intervention can change fertility levels within a relatively short time, but progress in other places has been slower. Thus the fertility reductions to be achieved during the next 2 decades will require more intensive and expensive efforts in terms of education, motivation, and extension of services in rural areas. Contraceptive methods must be improved in terms of safety, acceptability, and effectiveness.

  20. Abundance, distribution, and population trends of the iconic Hawaiian Honeycreeper, the ʻIʻiwi (Vestiaria coccinea) throughout the Hawaiian Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paxton, Eben H.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.

    2013-01-01

    Naturalists in the 1800s described the ʻIʻiwi (Vestiaria coccinea) as one of the most abundant forest birds, detected in forested areas from sea level to tree line across all the major Hawaiian Islands. However, in the late 1800s, ʻIʻiwi began to disappear from low elevation forests, and by the mid-1900s, the species was largely absent from low- and mid-elevation areas. Today, ʻIʻiwi are restricted to high-elevation forests on the islands of Hawaiʻi, east Maui, and Kauaʻi, with a few birds apparently persisting on Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, and west Maui. ʻIʻiwi are highly vulnerable to introduced disease, and the prevalence of avian malaria in low and mid-elevations is believed to be the cause of ʻIʻiwi being restricted to high elevations where temperatures are too cold for the development of the disease and its mosquito vector. With global warming, it is feared that the disease will move quickly into the high-elevation forests where the last ʻIʻiwi reside, threatening their viability. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service was petitioned to list the ʻIʻiwi as an Endangered Species in 2010, and this report provides a comprehensive review of the abundance, distribution, and trends using historical survey data as well as the most recently available survey information (up to 2012). We estimate the total population size of ‘I‘iwi at 550,972–659,864 (mean = 605,418) individuals. Of these, 90 percent are on the island of Hawaiʻi, followed by east Maui (about 10 percent), with less than 1 percent on Kauaʻi. ʻIʻiwi population trends vary across the islands. ʻIʻiwi population in Kauaʻi has experienced sharp declines, with a projected trend of 92 percent decline over a 25 year period based on the 2000–2012 surveys. On East Maui, the northeastern region has experienced declines (34 percent over a 25 year period), while the southeastern region has been stable to moderately increasing. On the island of Hawaiʻi, population trends are mixed. On the windward

  1. On the importance of controlling for effort in analysis of count survey data: Modeling population change from Christmas Bird Count data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Helbig, Andreas J.; Flade, Martin

    1999-01-01

    Count survey data are commonly used for estimating temporal and spatial patterns of population change. Since count surveys are not censuses, counts can be influenced by 'nuisance factors' related to the probability of detecting animals but unrelated to the actual population size. The effects of systematic changes in these factors can be confounded with patterns of population change. Thus, valid analysis of count survey data requires the identification of nuisance factors and flexible models for their effects. We illustrate using data from the Christmas Bird Count (CBC), a midwinter survey of bird populations in North America. CBC survey effort has substantially increased in recent years, suggesting that unadjusted counts may overstate population growth (or understate declines). We describe a flexible family of models for the effect of effort, that includes models in which increasing effort leads to diminishing returns in terms of the number of birds counted.

  2. Genetic signature of population fragmentation varies with mobility in seven bird species of a fragmented Kenyan cloud forest.

    PubMed

    Callens, Tom; Galbusera, Peter; Matthysen, Erik; Durand, Eric Y; Githiru, Mwangi; Huyghe, Jeroen R; Lens, Luc

    2011-05-01

    Habitat fragmentation can restrict geneflow, reduce neighbourhood effective population size, and increase genetic drift and inbreeding in small, isolated habitat remnants. The extent to which habitat fragmentation leads to population fragmentation, however, differs among landscapes and taxa. Commonly, researchers use information on the current status of a species to predict population effects of habitat fragmentation. Such methods, however, do not convey information on species-specific responses to fragmentation. Here, we compare levels of past population differentiation, estimated from microsatellite genotypes, with contemporary dispersal rates, estimated from multi-strata capture-recapture models, to infer changes in mobility over time in seven sympatric, forest-dependent bird species of a Kenyan cloud forest archipelago. Overall, populations of sedentary species were more strongly differentiated and clustered compared to those of vagile ones, while geographical patterning suggested an important role of landscape structure in shaping genetic variation. However, five of seven species with broadly similar levels of genetic differentiation nevertheless differed substantially in their current dispersal rates. We conclude that post-fragmentation levels of vagility, without reference to past population connectivity, may not be the best predictor of how forest fragmentation affects the life history of forest-dependent species. As effective conservation strategies often hinge on accurate prediction of shifts in ecological and genetic relationships among populations, conservation practices based solely upon current population abundances or movements may, in the long term, prove to be inadequate.

  3. Geographic patterns in relative abundances and population trends of breeding and wintering loggerhead shrikes in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Orsillo, Sandra; Peterjohn, B.G.; Yosef, Reuven; Lohrer, Fred E.

    1995-01-01

    In North America, the Breeding Bird Survey and the Christmas Bird Count provide data that are collected at sites visited each year, and the site-specific data can be placed in a Geographic Information System and smoothed to produce contour maps of relative abundance and trend for the United States and southern Canada. We develop these contour maps for Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) data from both surveys, and compare the patterns derived from each survey to evaluate the consistency of trends and relative abundances within physiographic strata. Patterns in relative abundance seem to be associated with strata, especially in the breeding season, but trends are often heterogeneous within strata. Because of limitations of the surveys and observed geographic patterns of shrike trends in the survey data, we suggest that there is no natural scale for the analysis of shrike-habitat associations.

  4. Identifying areas for infectious animal disease surveillance in the absence of population data: highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild bird populations of Europe.

    PubMed

    Iglesias, I; Perez, A M; De la Torre, A; Muñoz, M J; Martínez, M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2010-08-01

    A large number (n=591) of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) outbreaks have been reported in wild birds of Europe from October 2005 through January 2009. Consequently, prevention and control strategies have been implemented in response to the outbreaks and considerable discussion has taken place regarding the need for implementing surveillance programs in high-risk areas with the objective of early detecting and preventing HPAIV epidemics. However countries ability to define the temporal and spatial extension of the high risk areas has been impaired by the lack of information on the distribution of susceptible wild bird populations in the region. Here, a technique for the detection of time-space disease clustering that does not require information on the distribution of susceptible populations and that has been referred to as the time-space permutation model of the scan statistic was used to identify areas and times of the year in which epidemics of H5N1 HPAIV were most likely to occur in wild bird populations of Europe from October, 2005, through December, 2008. The scan statistic was parameterized considering pre-existing knowledge on the epidemiological and ecological characteristics of the disease in the region. Robustness of the results was assessed using a generalized linear regression model to compare the outcomes of 36 alternative parameterizations of the scan statistic. Ten significant time-space clusters of H5N1 HPAI outbreaks were detected in six European countries. Results were sensitive (P<0.05) to the definition of the maximum spatial size defined for the clusters. Results presented here will help to identify high risk areas for HPAIV surveillance in the European Union. Assumptions, results, and implications of the analytical model are extensively presented and discussed in order to facilitate the use of this approach for the identification of high risk areas for infectious animal disease surveillance in the absence of population

  5. Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guthrie Zimmerman,; Sauer, John; Fleming, Kathy; Link, William; Pamela R. Garrettson,

    2015-01-01

    We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of day effects, these data can be used to estimate population size. The BBS provides an index of wood duck abundance along roadside routes. Although factors influencing change in BBS counts over time can be controlled in BBS analysis, BBS indices alone cannot be used to derive population size estimates. We used AFBWS data to scale BBS indices for Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), basing the scaling factors on the ratio of estimated AFBWS population sizes to regional BBS indices for portions of BCRs that were common to both surveys. We summed scaled BBS results for portions of the Flyway not covered by the AFBWS with AFBWS population estimates to estimate a mean yearly total of 1,295,875 (mean 95% CI: 1,013,940–1,727,922) wood ducks. Scaling factors varied among BCRs from 16.7 to 148.0; the mean scaling factor was 68.9 (mean 95% CI: 53.5–90.9). Flyway-wide, population estimates from the combined analysis were consistent with alternative estimates derived from harvest data, and also provide population estimates within states and BCRs. We recommend their use in harvest and habitat management within the Atlantic Flyway.

  6. Species abundances, guild dominance patterns, and community structure of breeding riparian birds

    Treesearch

    Deborah M. Finch

    1989-01-01

    I investigated trends in bird species populations, guild structure, and bird communities along a riparian altitudinal cline in the Medicine Bow National Forest of southeastern Wyoming. Streamside habitats were divided into three elevational zones: low-elevation (2050 to 2260 m) cottonwood zone, mid-elevation (2290 to 2530 m) mixed shrub willow zone, and high elevation...

  7. A Watershed-Scale Survey for Stream-Foraging Birds in Northern California

    Treesearch

    Sherri L. Miller; C. John Ralph

    2005-01-01

    Our objective was to develop a survey technique and watershed-scale design to monitor trends of population size and habitat associations in stream-foraging birds. The resulting methods and design will be used to examine the efficacy of quantifying the association of stream and watershed quality with bird abundance. We surveyed 60 randomly selected 2-km stream reaches...

  8. Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population.

    PubMed

    Pavlacky, David C; Possingham, Hugh P; Lowe, Andrew J; Prentis, Peter J; Green, David J; Goldizen, Anne W

    2012-09-01

    1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The

  9. Monitoring trends in bat populations of the United States and territories: Problems and prospects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Bogan, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    Bats are ecologically and economically important mammals. The life histories of bats (particularly their low reproductive rates and the need for some species to gather in large aggregations at limited numbers of roosting sites) make their populations vulnerable to declines. Many of the species of bats in the United States (U.S.) and territories are categorized as endangered or threatened, have been candidates for such categories, or are considered species of concern. The importance and vulnerability of bat populations makes monitoring trends in their populations a goal for their future management. However, scientifically rigorous monitoring of bat populations requires well-planned, statistically defensible efforts. This volume reports findings of an expert workshop held to examine the topic of monitoring populations of bats. The workshop participants included leading experts in sampling and analysis of wildlife populations, as well as experts in the biology and conservation of bats. Findings are reported in this volume under two sections. Part I of the report presents contributed papers that provide overviews of past and current efforts at monitoring trends in populations of bats in the U.S. and territories. These papers consider current techniques and problems, and summarize what is known about the status and trends in populations of selected groups of bats. The contributed papers in Part I also include a description of the monitoring program developed for bat populations in the United Kingdom, a critique of monitoring programs in wildlife in general with recommendations for survey and sampling strategies, and a compilation and analysis of existing data on trends in bats of the U.S. and territories. Efforts directed at monitoring bat populations are piecemeal and have shortcomings. In Part II of the report, the workshop participants provide critical analyses of these problems and develop recommendations for improving methods, defining objectives and priorities

  10. Red-cockaded woodpecker population trends and management on Texas national forests

    Treesearch

    Richard N. Conner; D. Craig Rudolph

    1994-01-01

    Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population trends and concurrent management on four national forests in eastern Texas were evaluated from 1983 through 1993. Following years of decline, populations stabilized and began to increase after intensive management efforts were initiated. Management activities included control of hardwood midstory and understory,...

  11. Demographic Trends in the Republic of Zaire. Caltech Population Program Occasional Papers, Series 1, Number 5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boute, Joseph

    This paper, one in a series of occasional publications, discusses population growth and trends in the African Republic of Zaire. The series is intended to increase understanding of the interrelationships between population growth and socioeconomic and cultural patterns throughout the world, and to communicate this understanding to scholars and…

  12. Population Change: Know the Trends in Your Community. Coping with Change. Revised.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, Annabel Kirschner

    Community leaders and government agency representatives need to understand local population trends, particularly in situations of rapid change. This publication outlines a simple framework for analysis of population changes, along with useful methods and criteria that can be applied when considering management and policy alternatives. Two…

  13. Population Trends and Management of the Bank Swallow (Riparia riparia) on the Sacramento River, California

    Treesearch

    Barrett A. Garrison; Ronald W. Schlorff; Joan M. Humphrey; Stephen A. Laymon; Frank J. Michny

    1989-01-01

    Annual monitoring of Bank Swallows (Riparia riparia) along the Sacramento River, California has been conducted since 1986 to determine population trends, evaluate impacts from bank protection and flood control projects, and implement and monitor mitigation efforts. The population of Bank Swallows in a 50-mile river reach remained static over 3...

  14. Population Change: Do You Know the Trends in Your Community? Coping with Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Butler, Lorna Michael

    To help government agency representatives and community leaders understand local population trends, particularly in rapid growth situations, this publication outlines a simple framework for analyzing population changes and provides useful criteria that can be applied when considering management and policy alternatives. It is noted that two…

  15. Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

    PubMed

    Pfaller, Joseph B; Bjorndal, Karen A; Chaloupka, Milani; Williams, Kristina L; Frick, Michael G; Bolten, Alan B

    2013-01-01

    Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

  16. The role of selection and historical factors in driving population differentiation along an elevational gradient in an island bird.

    PubMed

    Bertrand, J A M; Delahaie, B; Bourgeois, Y X C; Duval, T; García-Jiménez, R; Cornuault, J; Pujol, B; Thébaud, C; Milá, B

    2016-04-01

    Adaptation to local environmental conditions and the range dynamics of populations can influence evolutionary divergence along environmental gradients. Thus, it is important to investigate patterns of both phenotypic and genetic variations among populations to reveal the respective roles of these two types of factors in driving population differentiation. Here, we test for evidence of phenotypic and genetic structure across populations of a passerine bird (Zosterops borbonicus) distributed along a steep elevational gradient on the island of Réunion. Using 11 microsatellite loci screened in 401 individuals from 18 localities distributed along the gradient, we found that genetic differentiation occurred at two spatial levels: (i) between two main population groups corresponding to highland and lowland areas, respectively, and (ii) within each of these two groups. In contrast, several morphological traits varied gradually along the gradient. Comparison of neutral genetic differentiation (FST ) and phenotypic differentiation (PST ) showed that PST largely exceeds FST at several morphological traits, which is consistent with a role for local adaptation in driving morphological divergence along the gradient. Overall, our results revealed an area of secondary contact midway up the gradient between two major, cryptic, population groups likely diverged in allopatry. Remarkably, local adaptation has shaped phenotypic differentiation irrespective of population history, resulting in different patterns of variation along the elevational gradient. Our findings underscore the importance of understanding both historical and selective factors when trying to explain variation along environmental gradients. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  17. A Study of the Effects of Gas Well Compressor Noise on Breeding Bird Populations of the Rattlesnake Canyon Habitat Management Area, San Juan County, New Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    LaGory, K.E.; Chang, Young-Soo; Chun, K.C.; Reeves, T.; Liebich, R.; Smith, K.

    2001-06-04

    This report, conducted from May through July 2000, addressed the potential effect of compressor noise on breeding birds in gas-production areas administered by the FFO, specifically in the Rattlesnake Canyon Habitat Management Area northeast of Farmington, New Mexico. The study was designed to quantify and characterize noise output from these compressors and to determine if compressor noise affected bird populations in adjacent habitat during the breeding season.

  18. Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola

    2007-08-01

    Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift ( Apus apus), nightingale ( Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica), and house martin ( Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling ( Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow ( Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

  19. DNA from bird-dispersed seed and wind-disseminated pollen provides insights into postglacial colonization and population genetic structure of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis)

    Treesearch

    Bryce A. Richardson; Steven J. Runsfeld; Ned B. Klopfenstein

    2002-01-01

    Uniparentally inherited mitochondrial (mt)DNA and chloroplast (cp)DNA microsatellites (cpSSRs) were used to examine population genetic structure and biogeographic patterns of bird-dispersed seed and wind-disseminated pollen of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.). Sampling was conducted from 41 populations throughout the range of the species....

  20. Long-term consequences of high incubation temperature in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Nord, Andreas; Nilsson, Jan-Åke

    2016-04-01

    Because incubation by birds is energetically costly, parents frequently trade off investment in incubation against self-maintenance. This can be manifested by a reduction in incubation temperature, which comes at high somatic costs for nestlings. The extent to which these costs constrain fitness is poorly understood. We incubated wild blue tit clutches at three biologically relevant temperatures and subsequently recorded winter survival and survival to the breeding season. Fledglings from the coldest treatment (35.0°C) survived less well than other fledglings, but the proportion of winter and breeding survivors did not differ significantly between treatments. However, survival probability in both seasons increased with body mass at fledging in birds from low and mid incubation temperatures, but decreased with fledging body mass in the high-temperature treatment. Mid-temperature nestlings were heavier as adults, weighing 7% more than low- and high-temperature survivors. Thus, high incubation temperature can be beneficial in the short term, but costs of accelerated embryonic development may equal those of protracted development in the long term. Such hidden consequences of faster development could maintain natural selection for average incubation temperature. © 2016 The Author(s).

  1. The Bird.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannon, Jean

    2001-01-01

    Students use a dead bird to learn about bird life, anatomy, and death. Students examine a bird body and discuss what happened to the bird. Uses outdoor education as a resource for learning about animals. (SAH)

  2. The Bird.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannon, Jean

    2001-01-01

    Students use a dead bird to learn about bird life, anatomy, and death. Students examine a bird body and discuss what happened to the bird. Uses outdoor education as a resource for learning about animals. (SAH)

  3. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  4. [Spatial distribution characteristics of urban potential population in Shenyang City based on QuickBird image and GIS].

    PubMed

    Li, Jun-Ying; Hu, Yuan-Man; Chen, Wei; Liu, Miao; Hu, Jian-Bo; Zhong, Qiao-Lin; Lu, Ning

    2012-06-01

    Population is the most active factor affecting city development. To understand the distribution characteristics of urban population is of significance for making city policy decisions and for optimizing the layout of various urban infrastructures. In this paper, the information of the residential buildings in Shenyang urban area was extracted from the QuickBird remote sensing images, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the population within the Third-Ring Road of the City were analyzed, according to the social and economic statistics data. In 2010, the population density in different types of residential buildings within the Third-Ring Road of the City decreased in the order of high-storey block, mixed block, mixed garden, old multi-storey building, high-storey garden, multi-storey block, multi-storey garden, villa block, shanty, and villa garden. The vacancy rate of the buildings within the Third-Ring Road was more than 30%, meaning that the real estate market was seriously overstocked. Among the five Districts of Shenyang City, Shenhe District had the highest potential population density, while Tiexi District and Dadong District had a lower one. The gravity center of the City and its five Districts was also analyzed, which could provide basic information for locating commercial facilities and planning city infrastructure.

  5. Landscape-based population viability models demonstrate importance of strategic conservation planning for birds

    Treesearch

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; D. Todd. Jones-Farland

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to conserve regional biodiversity in the face of global climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation will depend on approaches that consider population processes at multiple scales. By combining habitat and demographic modeling, landscape-based population viability models effectively relate small-scale habitat and landscape patterns to regional population...

  6. Free-living Waterfowl as a Source of Zoonotic Bacteria in a Dense Wild Bird Population Area in Northeastern Spain.

    PubMed

    Antilles, N; Sanglas, A; Cerdà-Cuéllar, M

    2015-10-01

    Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. are zoonotic bacteria that represent an economic and public health concern worldwide. Due to the difficulty to collect samples from free-living waterfowl, little is known on their importance as a reservoir of zoonotic agents. Thus, a study was conducted to determine the prevalence, genotypic diversity and antimicrobial susceptibility of Salmonella and Campylobacter from waterfowl in Ebro Delta (northeastern Spain), a geographical area with a dense wild bird population. Samples were collected from 318 adult waterfowl belonging to nine fowl species. All the samples were taken during the hunting season from 2008 to 2010. None of the birds were positive for Salmonella, while the overall Campylobacter prevalence was 12.58% (40/318). A much higher Campylobacter coli prevalence than Campylobacter jejuni was found (11.64% versus 0.94%). The species Fulica atra showed the highest Campylobacter prevalence (78.05%). ERIC-PCR of the isolates showed a high diversity of strains. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing of Campylobacter isolates showed that all the isolates were susceptible to the seven antibiotics tested.

  7. A test of the variable circular-plot method where exact density of a bird population was known

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nelson, Jay T.; Fancy, Steven G.

    1999-01-01

    Variable circular-plot (VCP) counts are statistically more sound than point counts because they are adjusted for the probability of detecting birds at different distances and under different conditions. However, many ornithologists use point counts rather than VCP counts because they believe that assumptions of the VCP method are almost always violated, leading to poor results, and because earlier field tests using ad hoc analysis methods gave variable and relatively poor results. We conducted the first field test of the VCP method where the exact density of a forest bird was known as part of re-establishing the 'Oma'o Myadestes obscurus in former range. All 'Oma'o in the new population were intensively monitored by radio telemetry so that the number present during four VCP censuses was known. Excluding the first census, when three of the four detections were of the same individual, differences in VCP density estimates ranged from -34% to +24% (mean 0%) even though =18 'Oma'o were detected per survey. We review critical assumptions of the VCP method and make recommendations for data analysis based on our experience with the method on Pacific islands.

  8. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

    PubMed Central

    Thessen, Anne E.; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species. PMID:25548736

  9. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

    PubMed

    Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  10. Genomic signature analysis of the recently emerged highly pathogenic A(H5N8) avian influenza virus: implying an evolutionary trend for bird-to-human transmission.

    PubMed

    Xu, Wei; Dai, Yanyan; Hua, Chen; Wang, Qian; Zou, Peng; Deng, Qiwen; Jiang, Shibo; Lu, Lu

    2017-09-07

    In early 2014, a novel subclade (2.3.4.4) of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) virus caused the first outbreak in domestic ducks and migratory birds in South Korea. Since then, it has spread to 44 countries and regions. To date, no human infections with A(H5N8) virus have been reported, but the possibility cannot be excluded. By analyzing the genomic signatures of A(H5N8) strains, we found that among the 47 species-associated signature positions, three positions exhibited human-like signatures (HLS), including PA-404S, PB2-613I and PB2-702R and that mutation trend of host signatures of avian A(H5N8) is different before and after 2014. About 82% of A(H5N8) isolates collected after January of 2014 carried the 3 HLS (PA-404S/PB2-613I/PB2-702R) in combination, while none of isolates collected before 2014 had this combination. Furthermore, the HA protein had S137A and S227R substitutions in the receptor-binding site and A160T in the glycosylation site, potentially increasing viral ability to bind human-type receptors. Based on these findings, the newly emerged HPAI A(H5N8) isolates show an evolutionary trend toward gaining more HLS and, along with it, the potential for bird-to-human transmissibility. Therefore, more extensive surveillance of this rapidly spreading HPAI A(H5N8) and preparedness against its potential pandemic are urgently needed. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  11. Population trends from the American woodcock singing-ground survey, 1970-88

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Bortner, J.B.

    1991-01-01

    Population trend analysis of American woodcook (Scolopax minor) using data from a singing-ground survey indicates population declines throughout the breeding range of the species between 1970 and 1988. In the eastern United States and Canada, this decline has been quite consistent throughout the period, but in the central portion of the continent the population increased during the 1970's and declined during the early 1980's. Observers differ in their ability to hear woodcock, and we document observer differences in the singing-ground survey data and incorporate them into our analyses. Habitat changes have been suggested as the most likely cause of declines in woodcock populations.

  12. Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adkins, Jessica Y.; Roby, Daniel D.; Lyons, Donald E.; Courtot, Karen N.; Collis, Ken; Carter, Harry R.; Shuford, W. David; Capitolo, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    The status of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchusspp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding

  13. Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2015-01-01

    Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  14. Toxic materials, fishing, and environmental variation: simulated effects on striped bass population trends

    SciTech Connect

    Goodyear, C.P.

    1985-01-01

    Decreased survival of larval striped bass Morone saxatilis resulting from toxic chemicals in the environment and decreased survival of adults caused by fishing both are suspected as agents contributing to the decline in the Chesapeake Bay stock since the mid-1970s. The relative power of each type of mortality to cause population declines was evaluated with simulation techniques. Equivalent levels of added mortality induced qualitatively identical and quantitatively similar trends in population simulations for all conditions examined except if strong density-dependent mortality preceded the contaminant toxicity. In this case the contaminant effect caused a greater reduction in yield, but the population did not tend toward extinction. The results indicate that the observed downward trend in the Chesapeake Bay population can be halted or reversed by a reduction in fishing mortality, even if contaminant toxicity is the proximate cause for the decline. 28 references, 1 figure, 1 table.

  15. The Significance of Mating System and Nonbreeding Behavior to Population and Forest Patch Use by Migrant Birds

    Treesearch

    Eugene S. Morton; Bridget J. M. Stutchbury

    2005-01-01

    Migratory birds are birds of two worlds, breeding in the temperate zone then living as tropical birds for most of the year. We show two aspects of this unique biology that are important considerations for their conservation. First, habitat selection for breeding must include their need for extra-pair mating opportunities. Second, non-breeding distributions in tropical...

  16. Signature of a Pre-Human Population Decline in the Critically Endangered Reunion Island Endemic Forest Bird Coracina newtoni

    PubMed Central

    Salmona, Jordi; Salamolard, Marc; Fouillot, Damien; Ghestemme, Thomas; Larose, Jerry; Centon, Jean-François; Sousa, Vitor; Dawson, Deborah A.; Thebaud, Christophe; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km2 area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations. PMID:22916272

  17. Signature of a pre-human population decline in the critically endangered Reunion Island endemic forest bird Coracina newtoni.

    PubMed

    Salmona, Jordi; Salamolard, Marc; Fouillot, Damien; Ghestemme, Thomas; Larose, Jerry; Centon, Jean-François; Sousa, Vitor; Dawson, Deborah A; Thebaud, Christophe; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km(2) area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations.

  18. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  19. Bird population declines due to radiation exposure at Chernobyl are stronger in species with pheomelanin-based coloration.

    PubMed

    Galván, Ismael; Mousseau, Timothy A; Møller, Anders P

    2011-04-01

    Eumelanin and pheomelanin are the most common pigments providing color to the integument of vertebrates. While pheomelanogenesis requires high levels of a key intracellular antioxidant (glutathione, GSH), eumelanogenesis is inhibited by GSH. This implies that species that possess the molecular basis to produce large amounts of pheomelanin might be more limited in coping with environmental conditions that generate oxidative stress than species that produce eumelanin. Exposure to ionizing radiation produces free radicals and depletes antioxidant resources. GSH is particularly susceptible to radiation, so that species with large proportions of pheomelanic integument may be limited by the availability of GSH to combat oxidative stress and may thus suffer more from radiation effects. We tested this hypothesis in 97 species of birds censused in areas with varying levels of radioactive contamination around Chernobyl. After controlling for the effects of carotenoid-based color, body mass and similarity among taxa due to common phylogenetic descent, the proportion of pheomelanic plumage was strongly negatively related to the slope estimates of the relationship between abundance and radiation levels, while no effect of eumelanic color proportion was found. This represents the first report of an effect of the expression of melanin-based coloration on the capacity to resist the effects of ionizing radiation. Population declines were also stronger in species that exhibit carotenoid-based coloration and have large body mass. The magnitude of population declines had a relatively high phylogenetic signal, indicating that certain groups of birds, especially non-corvid passeriforms, are particularly susceptible to suffer from the effects of radioactive contamination due to phylogenetic inertia.

  20. Chapter 37: Population Trends of the Marbled Murrelet Projected From Demographic Analyses

    Treesearch

    Steven B. Beissinger

    1995-01-01

    A demographic model of the Marbled Murrelet is developed to explore likely population trends and factors influencing them. The model was structured to use field data on juvenile ratios, collected near the end of the breeding season and corrected for date of census, to estimate fecundity. Survivorship was estimated for the murrelet based on comparative analyses of...

  1. The use of mist nets as a tool for bird population monitoring

    Treesearch

    E.H. Dunn; C. John Ralph

    2004-01-01

    Mist nets are an important tool for population monitoring, here defi ned as assessment of species composition, relative abundance, population size, and demography. We review the strengths and limitations of mist netting for monitoring purposes, based on papers in this volume and other literature. Advantages of using mist nets over aural or visual count methods include...

  2. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  3. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  4. The European and Japanese outbreaks of H5N8 derive from a single source population providing evidence for the dispersal along the long distance bird migratory flyways

    PubMed Central

    Iqbal, Munir

    2015-01-01

    The origin of recent parallel outbreaks of the high pathogenicity H5N8 avian flu virus in Europe and in Japan can be traced to a single source population, which has most likely been spread by migratory birds. By using Bayesian coalescent methods to analyze the DNA sequences of the virus to find the times for divergence and combining this sequence data with bird migration data we can show the most likely locations and migratory pathways involved in the origin of the current outbreak. This population was most likely located in the Siberian summer breeding grounds of long-range migratory birds. These breeding grounds provide a connection between different migratory flyways and explain the current outbreaks in remote locations. By combining genetic methods and epidemiological data we can rapidly identify the sources and the dispersion pathways for novel avian influenza outbreaks. PMID:25945320

  5. Climate-driven fluctuation of a wild bird population over the past half millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naef-Daenzer, B.; Luterbacher, J.; Nuber, M.; Rutishauser, Th.; Winkel, W.

    2009-04-01

    Mechanisms underlying climate-driven changes in ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood because hardly any ecological records start before the recent warming phase. We analyse an exceptional 100-year record of the great tit population (Parus major) and habitat phenology in Switzerland, and model climate-driven population fluctuations since AD 1500. Additional to high plasticity of the system, we find a significant influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation) on fitness-relevant life history traits and population dynamics. The multidecadal circulation impact resulted in low fecundity and population minima during the ‘Maunder Minimum' (1650-1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810-1850), whereas the warming since 1975 is related with the highest productivity since 1500 and an unprecedented increase of the population.

  6. [A trend analysis of population structure by logit system: 1940-1980 (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Jang, Y S

    1981-12-01

    Population composition has been changed according to fertility transition and mobility of population as well as historic and other events. The purpose of this study was to compare the population composition during the last 40 years (1940-80) in Korea by the logit system. As for trend analysis of the population composition, the Brass' logist system is used because it has the advantage of being based on simple principle. This method uses a mathematical model instead of comparing with numbers or diagrams. It is a useful method especially when census data has not completely covered the object cases. As to the other merits of this method, the regression equation can reveal many other age compositions when the standard population is fixed and the parameters are changed. The reasons convince us that trend analysis of the population composition using a mathematical model is useful. According to the results of this study, older age groups are increasing in proportion and young people are declining in numbers. In conclusion, the population composition of Korea is being transformed into the western population model. (author's)

  7. Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

  8. Repeated inseminations required for natural fertility in a wild bird population.

    PubMed Central

    Török, János; Michl, Gábor; Garamszegi, László Zs; Barna, Judit

    2003-01-01

    In most bird species, pairs copulate many times before egg laying. The exact function of repeated inseminations (i.e. successful copulations) is unknown, but several suggestions have been made. We tested the hypothesis that repeated inseminations are required to ensure fertilization of eggs, by using an experimental method where free-ranging male collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) were prevented from inseminating their mates. We show that egg fertility was lower when females had not copulated during the studied part of their fertile period. By counting sperm on the inner perivitelline layer of eggs, we estimated that a minimum of 86 sperm must reach the site of fertilization to ensure average fertility. Using the timing of inseminations and the numbers of sperm on successive eggs, we show that repeated copulations are necessary to achieve an average rate of fertilization of a single clutch. Our results thus provide evidence that repeated inseminations function to ensure fertilization success. We discuss possible constraints on sperm production and utilization that may have contributed to this pattern. PMID:12769465

  9. Insularity effects on bird immune parameters: A comparison between island and mainland populations in West Africa.

    PubMed

    Lobato, Elisa; Doutrelant, Claire; Melo, Martim; Reis, Sandra; Covas, Rita

    2017-06-01

    Oceanic islands share several environmental characteristics that have been shown to drive convergent evolutionary changes in island organisms. One change that is often assumed but has seldom been examined is the evolution of weaker immune systems in island species. The reduction in species richness on islands is expected to lead to a reduced parasite pressure and, given that immune function is costly, island animals should show a reduced immune response. However, alternative hypotheses exist; for example, the slower pace of life on islands could favor the reorganization of the immune system components (innate vs. acquired immunity) on islands. Thus far, few island species have been studied and no general patterns have emerged. Here, we compared two immune parameters of birds from São Tomé and Príncipe islands to those of their close relatives at similar latitudes on the mainland (Gabon, West Africa). On islands, the acquired humoral component (total immunoglobulins) was lower for most species, whereas no clear pattern was detected for the innate component (haptoglobin levels). These different responses did not seem to arise from a reorganization of the two immune components, as both total immunoglobulins and haptoglobin levels were positively associated. This work adds to the few empirical studies conducted so far which suggest that changes in immune parameters in response to insularity are not as straightforward as initially thought.

  10. Distribution, diversity and drivers of blood-borne parasite co-infections in Alaskan bird populations.

    PubMed

    Oakgrove, Khouanchy S; Harrigan, Ryan J; Loiseau, Claire; Guers, Sue; Seppi, Bruce; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2014-09-01

    Avian species are commonly infected by multiple parasites, however few studies have investigated the environmental determinants of the prevalence of co-infection over a large scale. Here we believe that we report the first, detailed ecological study of the prevalence, diversity and co-infections of four avian blood-borne parasite genera: Plasmodium spp., Haemoproteus spp., Leucocytozoon spp. and Trypanosoma spp. We collected blood samples from 47 resident and migratory bird species across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska. From the patterns observed at collection sites, random forest models were used to provide evidence of associations between bioclimatic conditions and the prevalence of parasite co-infection distribution. Molecular screening revealed a higher prevalence of haematozoa (53%) in Alaska than previously reported. Leucocytozoons had the highest diversity, prevalence and prevalence of co-infection. Leucocytozoon prevalence (35%) positively correlated with Trypanosoma prevalence (11%), negatively correlated with Haemoproteus prevalence (14%) and had no correlation with Plasmodium prevalence (7%). We found temperature, precipitation and tree cover to be the primary environmental drivers that show a relationship with the prevalence of co-infection. The results provide insight into the impacts of bioclimatic drivers on parasite ecology and intra-host interactions, and have implications for the study of infectious diseases in rapidly changing environments. Copyright © 2014 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Trends in High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among General Population Groups in China: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W. N.; de Vlas, Sake J.

    2013-01-01

    Background The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Methods We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Results We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Discussion Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population. PMID:24236121

  12. Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

  13. The relative roles of cultural drift and acoustic adaptation in shaping syllable repertoires of island bird populations change with time since colonization.

    PubMed

    Potvin, Dominique A; Clegg, Sonya M

    2015-02-01

    In birds, song divergence often precedes and facilitates divergence of other traits. We assessed the relative roles of cultural drift, innovation, and acoustic adaptation in divergence of island bird dialects, using silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis). In recently colonized populations, syllable diversity was not significantly lower than source populations, shared syllables between populations decreased with increasing number of founder events, and dialect variation displayed contributions from both habitat features and drift. The breadth of multivariate space occupied by recently colonized Z. l. lateralis populations was comparable to evolutionarily old forms that have diverged over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. In evolutionarily old subspecies, syllable diversity was comparable to the mainland and the amount of variation in syllable composition explained by habitat features increased by two- to threefold compared to recently colonized populations. Together these results suggest that cultural drift influences syllable repertoires in recently colonized populations, but innovation likely counters syllable loss from colonization. In evolutionarily older populations, the influence of acoustic adaptation increases, possibly favoring a high diversity of syllables. These results suggest that the relative importance of cultural drift and acoustic adaptation changes with time since colonization in island bird populations, highlighting the value of considering multiple mechanisms and timescale of divergence when investigating island song divergence.

  14. Population structure and demographic trends of the registered Sahiwal cattle in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Kamiti, Duncan; Ilatsia, Evans; Bett, Rawlynce; Kahi, Alexander

    2016-06-01

    Sahiwal cattle breed is an important genetic resource that supports livelihoods of pastoralists in Kenya. However, information about its population structure, demographic trends, and genetic diversity is scarce. The objective of this study was to characterize the population structure, explore demographic trends, and evaluate genetic diversity parameters of the breed through pedigree analysis. Pedigree data from National Sahiwal Stud and Kenya Stud Book were combined and analyzed using POPREP software package. The number of registered breeding animals indicated a downward trend over time. Generation interval was longer by 3 years in males than in females. Average inbreeding coefficient was 0.58 % for all animals and 2.23 % for inbred animals. Average inbreeding between 1960 and 2008 for inbred animals decreased at -0.0012 % per year while for the entire breed increased at 0.025 % per year. Additive genetic relationship in the whole population was 0.87 %. The effective population size declined over time and was lower than that recommended to maintain genetic diversity in the long term. The breed was found to be losing genetic diversity over time, and therefore a strategy to reduce inbreeding rate and increase effective population size is recommended.

  15. Temporal trends of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in eggs of coastal and offshore birds: Increasing PFAS levels associated with offshore bird species breeding on the Pacific coast of Canada and wintering near Asia.

    PubMed

    Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Lee, Sandi; Cyr, Francois

    2015-08-01

    Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) such as perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) have become virtually ubiquitous throughout the environment, and, based on laboratory studies, have known toxicological consequences. Various national and international voluntary phase-outs and restrictions on these compounds have been implemented over the last 10 to 15 years. In the present study, we examine trends (1990/1991-2010/2011) in aquatic birds (ancient murrelet, Synthliboramphus antiquus [2009 only]; Leach's storm-petrels, Oceanodroma leucorhoa; rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata; double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus; and great blue herons, Ardea herodias). The PFCA, PFSA, and stable isotope (δ(15) N and δ(13) C) data collected from these species from the Pacific coast of Canada, ranging over 20 to 30 years, were used to investigate temporal changes in PFAS coupled to dietary changes. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), the dominant PFSA compound in all 4 species, increased and subsequently decreased in auklet and cormorant eggs in line with the manufacturing phase-out of PFOS and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), but concentrations continuously increased in petrel eggs and remained largely unchanged in heron eggs. Dominant PFCA compounds varied between the offshore and coastal species, with increases seen in the offshore species and little or variable changes seen in the coastal species. Little temporal change was seen in stable isotope values, indicating that diet alone is not driving observed PFAS concentrations. © 2015 SETAC.

  16. A new method of projecting populations based on trends in life expectancy and survival.

    PubMed

    Mayhew, Les; Smith, David

    2013-07-01

    There is increasing concern about the lack of accuracy in population projections at national levels. A common problem has been the systematic underestimation of improvements in mortality, especially at older ages, resulting in projections that are too low. In this paper, we present a method that is based on projecting survivorship rather than mortality, which uses the same data but differs technically. In particular, rather than extrapolating trends in mortality, we use trends in life expectancy to establish a robust statistical relation between changes in life expectancy and survivorship using period life tables. We test the approach on data for England and Wales for the population aged 50 and over, and show that it gives more accurate projections than official projections using the same base data. Using the model to project the population aged 50 and over to 2020, our method suggests nearly 0.6 million more people in this age group than official projections.

  17. Analysis of U. S. Forest Service bird point-count monitoring database - implications for designing and implementing avian monitoring

    Treesearch

    Eric T. Linder; David A. Buehler

    2005-01-01

    In 1996, Region 8 of the U. S. Forest Service implemented a program to monitor landbirds on southeastern U.S. national forests. The goal was to develop a monitoring system that could document population trends and bird-habitat relationships. Using power analysis, we examined the ability of the monitoring program to detect population trends (3 percent annual change) at...

  18. Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

    PubMed Central

    Burgess, Malcolm D; Nicoll, Malcolm A.C; Jones, Carl G; Norris, Ken

    2008-01-01

    Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations—the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change. PMID:18285284

  19. Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

  20. Trends in world population: how will the millenium compare with the past?

    PubMed

    Raleigh, V S

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews historical and projected trends in world population numbers, and the underlying determinants of those trends. Whereas the world's population has shown little change over most of its one million-year history, the past 200 years have witnessed dramatic changes in fertility, mortality and population growth rates. Recent decades, in particular, have seen unprecedented demographic events, with more people added to the world's population in the past 50 years than in the preceding million. The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS, selective as it is to young adults and infants, is also unprecedented, with life expectancy among some populations reduced by almost 20 years. As we approach the end of the 20th century, further demographic changes are underway with, for the first time in recent human history, a slowing down of world population growth. Nonetheless, world population is projected to grow from 6 billion currently to about 9.4 billion by 2050 (medium fertility assumption), with ageing emerging as the most pressing demographic issue facing humanity in the millenium.

  1. Mercury concentration trend as a possible result of changes in cod population demography.

    PubMed

    Ruus, Anders; Hjermann, Dag Ø; Beylich, Bjørnar; Schøyen, Merete; Øxnevad, Sigurd; Green, Norman W

    2017-07-20

    Mercury (Hg) in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is one of many parameters that are monitored through OSPAR's Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme. Time series for cod in the Inner Oslofjord (Norway) go back to 1984. Until 2014, annual median Hg-concentrations in cod from the Inner Oslofjord showed both significant upward long-term (whole time series) and short-term (recent 10 years) trends (when 2015 was included, the short-term trend was not significant). However, the median length of the cod sampled also showed upward trends. This may have been caused by low cod recruitment in the area since the start of the 2000s, as indicated by beach seine surveys. To investigate how length would impact the trend analysis, the Hg-concentrations in the cod were normalised to 50 cm. No significant short-term trend in Hg-concentrations could be detected for length-normalised concentrations. The results indicated that most of the upward trend in Hg-concentrations could be attributed to the sampling of larger fish. The reasons for the apparent change in the cod population demography are not conclusive, however, sampling bias must also be considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Age trends in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in Roma minority population of Croatia.

    PubMed

    Zeljko, Hrvojka Marija; Skarić-Jurić, Tatjana; Narančić, Nina Smolej; Barešić, Ana; Tomas, Zeljka; Petranović, Matea Zajc; Miličić, Jasna; Salihović, Marijana Peričić; Janićijević, Branka

    2013-07-01

    The Roma (Gypsy) are the largest European minority population characterized by poverty, social exclusion as well as by numerous life-style and cultural specificities, which all could have an adverse impact on their cardiovascular health. This study assesses the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors in community-based sample of 430 adult Roma, living in rural area of Croatia, by providing the actual and age-adjusted estimates using the European standard population. The most prominent classical CVD risk phenotypes (blood pressure, obesity, smoking, glucose and lipid profile) were selected, and the standard risk cut-offs were applied. The study has shown that compared to general population of Croatia, the Roma population bears a high CVD risk factors load related to smoking and high glucose level. The CVD risk factors prevalence in Roma also showed important sex and age patterns, the most imposing of which are the findings of higher prevalence of CVD risks in women (especially obesity and triglyceride levels) and the trend of higher body mass index (BMI) level in younger age group (18-34 years) which both stand in contrast to the trends characterizing the general population of Croatia. These findings are complemented by the trend of decreased risk in the oldest age group (65+ years) for all investigated CVD risk factors (with exception of triglycerides level) compared to the 50-64 age group. We conclude that the age and sex CVD risks pattern point to the health transition of this rural Roma population. As we expect the proportion of CVD in the Roma minority of Croatia to increase in the future along with further modernization of their lifestyle, the CVD prevention measures in this population are urgent and should be primarily targeted at women and at the younger segment of this population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Environmental and genetic determinants of innovativeness in a natural population of birds

    PubMed Central

    Quinn, John L.; Cole, Ella F.; Reed, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Much of the evidence for the idea that individuals differ in their propensity to innovate and solve new problems has come from studies on captive primates. Increasingly, behavioural ecologists are studying innovativeness in wild populations, and uncovering links with functional behaviour and fitness-related traits. The relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving this variation, however, remains unknown. Here, we present the results of the first large-scale study to examine a range of causal factors underlying innovative problem-solving performance (PSP) among 831 great tits (Parus major) temporarily taken into captivity. Analyses show that PSP in this population: (i) was linked to a variety of individual factors, including age, personality and natal origin (immigrant or local-born); (ii) was influenced by natal environment, because individuals had a lower PSP when born in poor-quality habitat, or where local population density was high, leading to cohort effects. Links with many of the individual and environmental factors were present only in some years. In addition, PSP (iii) had little or no measurable heritability, as estimated by a Bayesian animal model; and (iv) was not influenced by maternal effects. Despite previous reports of links between PSP and a range of functional traits in this population, the analyses here suggest that innovativeness had weak if any evolutionary potential. Instead most individual variation was caused by phenotypic plasticity driven by links with other behavioural traits and by environmentally mediated developmental stress. Heritability estimates are population, time and context specific, however, and more studies are needed to determine the generality of these effects. Our results shed light on the causes of innovativeness within populations, and add to the debate on the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving phenotypic variation within populations. PMID:26926275

  4. Environmental and genetic determinants of innovativeness in a natural population of birds.

    PubMed

    Quinn, John L; Cole, Ella F; Reed, Thomas E; Morand-Ferron, Julie

    2016-03-19

    Much of the evidence for the idea that individuals differ in their propensity to innovate and solve new problems has come from studies on captive primates. Increasingly, behavioural ecologists are studying innovativeness in wild populations, and uncovering links with functional behaviour and fitness-related traits. The relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving this variation, however, remains unknown. Here, we present the results of the first large-scale study to examine a range of causal factors underlying innovative problem-solving performance (PSP) among 831 great tits (Parus major) temporarily taken into captivity. Analyses show that PSP in this population: (i) was linked to a variety of individual factors, including age, personality and natal origin (immigrant or local-born); (ii) was influenced by natal environment, because individuals had a lower PSP when born in poor-quality habitat, or where local population density was high, leading to cohort effects. Links with many of the individual and environmental factors were present only in some years. In addition, PSP (iii) had little or no measurable heritability, as estimated by a Bayesian animal model; and (iv) was not influenced by maternal effects. Despite previous reports of links between PSP and a range of functional traits in this population, the analyses here suggest that innovativeness had weak if any evolutionary potential. Instead most individual variation was caused by phenotypic plasticity driven by links with other behavioural traits and by environmentally mediated developmental stress. Heritability estimates are population, time and context specific, however, and more studies are needed to determine the generality of these effects. Our results shed light on the causes of innovativeness within populations, and add to the debate on the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving phenotypic variation within populations. © 2016 The Author(s).

  5. Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

    PubMed

    WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

    2011-10-01

    Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

  6. Candidate gene–environment interactions and their relationships with timing of breeding in a wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Bourret, Audrey; Garant, Dany

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring and predicting evolutionary changes underlying current environmental modifications are complex challenges. Recent approaches to achieve these objectives include assessing the genetic variation and effects of candidate genes on traits indicating adaptive potential. In birds, for example, short tandem repeat polymorphism at four candidate genes (CLOCK, NPAS2, ADCYAP1, and CREB1) has been linked to variation in phenological traits such as laying date and timing of migration. However, our understanding of their importance as evolutionary predictors is still limited, mainly because the extent of genotype–environment interactions (GxE) related to these genes has yet to be assessed. Here, we studied a population of Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) over 4 years in southern Québec (Canada) to assess the relationships between those four candidate genes and two phenological traits related to reproduction (laying date and incubation duration) and also determine the importance of GxE in this system. Our results showed that NPAS2 female genotypes were nonrandomly distributed across the study system and formed a longitudinal cline with longer genotypes located to the east. We observed relationships between length polymorphism at all candidate genes and laying date and/or incubation duration, and most of these relationships were affected by environmental variables (breeding density, latitude, or temperature). In particular, the positive relationships detected between laying date and both CLOCK and NPAS2 female genotypes were variable depending on breeding density. Our results suggest that all four candidate genes potentially affect timing of breeding in birds and that GxE are more prevalent and important than previously reported in this context. PMID:26380692

  7. The ornament-condition relationship varies with parasite abundance at population level in a female bird

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Pablo; Martínez-Padilla, Jesús; Redpath, Stephen M.; Mougeot, Francois

    2011-10-01

    Environmental heterogeneity is expected to create variation in the ornament-condition relationship. This topic has been studied in males with less attention being given to females. Here, we explore inter-population variation in the relationship between the size of a male-like trait, supra-orbital combs, and body mass in female red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus. We used the abundance of the nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis, a parasite with strong negative effects on this species, as a proxy of environmental conditions. We studied six populations over 5 years and showed that the comb size-body mass relationship varied with mean parasite abundance, with stronger ornament-condition relationships in populations with higher parasite infection levels. Our study supports the idea that environmental conditions, and in particular parasite infection levels, may affect the reliability of female ornaments as condition indicators.

  8. Mast and weather influences on population trends of a species of concern: The allegheny woodrat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manjerovic, M.B.; Wood, P.B.; Edwards, J.W.

    2009-01-01

    Over the past 20-30 y. northern and western populations of the Allegheny woodrat (Neotoma magister) have experienced large declines. whereas populations in the core of the range are assumed to be stable. We examined population trends at two study areas in northcentral West Virginia along the western ridge of the central Appalachian Mountains. Temperature and precipitation parameters along with mast production were examined to determine if these environmental variables impacted the population. Based on a 5 y dataset. our results indicate a yearly decrease in the overall population. with adult females most affected. Hard and soft mast availability related to adult female capture rates. whereas temperatures significantly affected juvenile. adult female and overall capture rates. Juvenile summer capture rates increased with warmer temperatures the preceding winter. Female summer capture rates decreased with warmer temperatures the preceding spring suggesting that effects of warming should be added as a potential threat to the Allegheny woodrat.

  9. The New Population Debate: Two Views on Population Growth and Economic Development. Population Trends and Public Policy, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Timothy; Kelley, Allen C.

    Articles representing two views on the issue of rapid population growth and economic development are presented. Although the authors present different perspectives, they agree on many of the fundamentals. For example, both reject alarmism about impending "population explosions" and the use of population as a scapegoat for all Third World…

  10. The New Population Debate: Two Views on Population Growth and Economic Development. Population Trends and Public Policy, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Timothy; Kelley, Allen C.

    Articles representing two views on the issue of rapid population growth and economic development are presented. Although the authors present different perspectives, they agree on many of the fundamentals. For example, both reject alarmism about impending "population explosions" and the use of population as a scapegoat for all Third World…

  11. Breeding bird communities of the hardwood ecosystem experiment

    Treesearch

    Melissa C. Malloy; John B. Dunning

    2013-01-01

    Declining population trends of breeding birds associated with mature forests of the eastern and central United States have been a major concern for conservationists and land managers. As a landscape-scale, long-term, manipulative experiment, the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment (HEE) in Indiana may provide important insights into factors associated with these declines....

  12. Influence of habitat amount, arrangement, and use on population trend estimates of male Kirtland's warblers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Donner, D.M.; Probst, J.R.; Ribic, C.A.

    2008-01-01

    Kirtland's warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) persist in a naturally patchy environment of young, regenerating jack pine forests (i.e., 5-23 years old) created after wildfires and human logging activities. We examined how changing landscape structure from 26 years of forest management and wildfire disturbanc