Calculation of upper confidence bounds on proportion of area containing not-sampled vegetation types: An application to map unit definition for existing vegetation maps

Treesearch

Paul L. Patterson; Mark Finco

2011-01-01

This paper explores the information forest inventory data can produce regarding forest types that were not sampled and develops the equations necessary to define the upper confidence bounds on not-sampled forest types. The problem is reduced to a Bernoulli variable. This simplification allows the upper confidence bounds to be calculated based on Cochran (1977)....

Calculation of upper confidence bounds on not-sampled vegetation types using a systematic grid sample: An application to map unit definition for existing vegetation maps

Treesearch

Paul L. Patterson; Mark Finco

2009-01-01

This paper explores the information FIA data can produce regarding forest types that were not sampled and develops the equations necessary to define the upper confidence bounds on not-sampled forest types. The problem is reduced to a Bernoulli variable. This simplification allows the upper confidence bounds to be calculated based on Cochran (1977). Examples are...

Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Backus, George E.

1988-01-01

In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively.

Uncertainty quantification for constitutive model calibration of brain tissue.

PubMed

Brewick, Patrick T; Teferra, Kirubel

2018-05-31

The results of a study comparing model calibration techniques for Ogden's constitutive model that describes the hyperelastic behavior of brain tissue are presented. One and two-term Ogden models are fit to two different sets of stress-strain experimental data for brain tissue using both least squares optimization and Bayesian estimation. For the Bayesian estimation, the joint posterior distribution of the constitutive parameters is calculated by employing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling, a type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The HMC method is enriched in this work to intrinsically enforce the Drucker stability criterion by formulating a nonlinear parameter constraint function, which ensures the constitutive model produces physically meaningful results. Through application of the nested sampling technique, 95% confidence bounds on the constitutive model parameters are identified, and these bounds are then propagated through the constitutive model to produce the resultant bounds on the stress-strain response. The behavior of the model calibration procedures and the effect of the characteristics of the experimental data are extensively evaluated. It is demonstrated that increasing model complexity (i.e., adding an additional term in the Ogden model) improves the accuracy of the best-fit set of parameters while also increasing the uncertainty via the widening of the confidence bounds of the calibrated parameters. Despite some similarity between the two data sets, the resulting distributions are noticeably different, highlighting the sensitivity of the calibration procedures to the characteristics of the data. For example, the amount of uncertainty reported on the experimental data plays an essential role in how data points are weighted during the calibration, and this significantly affects how the parameters are calibrated when combining experimental data sets from disparate sources. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Confidence Sharing: An Economic Strategy for Efficient Information Flows in Animal Groups

PubMed Central

Korman, Amos; Greenwald, Efrat; Feinerman, Ofer

2014-01-01

Social animals may share information to obtain a more complete and accurate picture of their surroundings. However, physical constraints on communication limit the flow of information between interacting individuals in a way that can cause an accumulation of errors and deteriorated collective behaviors. Here, we theoretically study a general model of information sharing within animal groups. We take an algorithmic perspective to identify efficient communication schemes that are, nevertheless, economic in terms of communication, memory and individual internal computation. We present a simple and natural algorithm in which each agent compresses all information it has gathered into a single parameter that represents its confidence in its behavior. Confidence is communicated between agents by means of active signaling. We motivate this model by novel and existing empirical evidences for confidence sharing in animal groups. We rigorously show that this algorithm competes extremely well with the best possible algorithm that operates without any computational constraints. We also show that this algorithm is minimal, in the sense that further reduction in communication may significantly reduce performances. Our proofs rely on the Cramér-Rao bound and on our definition of a Fisher Channel Capacity. We use these concepts to quantify information flows within the group which are then used to obtain lower bounds on collective performance. The abstract nature of our model makes it rigorously solvable and its conclusions highly general. Indeed, our results suggest confidence sharing as a central notion in the context of animal communication. PMID:25275649

Confidence sharing: an economic strategy for efficient information flows in animal groups.

PubMed

Korman, Amos; Greenwald, Efrat; Feinerman, Ofer

2014-10-01

Social animals may share information to obtain a more complete and accurate picture of their surroundings. However, physical constraints on communication limit the flow of information between interacting individuals in a way that can cause an accumulation of errors and deteriorated collective behaviors. Here, we theoretically study a general model of information sharing within animal groups. We take an algorithmic perspective to identify efficient communication schemes that are, nevertheless, economic in terms of communication, memory and individual internal computation. We present a simple and natural algorithm in which each agent compresses all information it has gathered into a single parameter that represents its confidence in its behavior. Confidence is communicated between agents by means of active signaling. We motivate this model by novel and existing empirical evidences for confidence sharing in animal groups. We rigorously show that this algorithm competes extremely well with the best possible algorithm that operates without any computational constraints. We also show that this algorithm is minimal, in the sense that further reduction in communication may significantly reduce performances. Our proofs rely on the Cramér-Rao bound and on our definition of a Fisher Channel Capacity. We use these concepts to quantify information flows within the group which are then used to obtain lower bounds on collective performance. The abstract nature of our model makes it rigorously solvable and its conclusions highly general. Indeed, our results suggest confidence sharing as a central notion in the context of animal communication.

Two-Stage Modeling of Formaldehyde-Induced Tumor Incidence in the Rat—analysis of Uncertainties

EPA Science Inventory

This works extends the 2-stage cancer modeling of tumor incidence in formaldehyde-exposed rats carried out at the CIIT Centers for Health Research. We modify key assumptions, evaluate the effect of selected uncertainties, and develop confidence bounds on parameter estimates. Th...

An efficient approach to ARMA modeling of biological systems with multiple inputs and delays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perrott, M. H.; Cohen, R. J.

1996-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA or ARX) modeling which automatically seeks the best model order to represent investigated linear, time invariant systems using their input/output data. The algorithm seeks the ARMA parameterization which accounts for variability in the output of the system due to input activity and contains the fewest number of parameters required to do so. The unique characteristics of the proposed system identification algorithm are its simplicity and efficiency in handling systems with delays and multiple inputs. We present results of applying the algorithm to simulated data and experimental biological data In addition, a technique for assessing the error associated with the impulse responses calculated from estimated ARMA parameterizations is presented. The mapping from ARMA coefficients to impulse response estimates is nonlinear, which complicates any effort to construct confidence bounds for the obtained impulse responses. Here a method for obtaining a linearization of this mapping is derived, which leads to a simple procedure to approximate the confidence bounds.

Dynamics of bounded confidence opinion in heterogeneous social networks: Concord against partial antagonism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurmyshev, Evguenii; Juárez, Héctor A.; González-Silva, Ricardo A.

2011-08-01

Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics in social networks have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions always get closer. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks: Erdös-Rényi random graphs, small-world networks and complete graphs. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed model at different proportions of PA- and C-agents, depending on the value of initial opinion tolerance of agents. As for the opinion formation and arising of “dissidents”, the opinion dynamics of the C-agents society was found to be similar to that of the DW model, except for the rate of opinion convergence. Nevertheless, mixed societies showed dynamics and bifurcation patterns notably different to those of the DW model. The influence of biased initial conditions over opinion formation in heterogeneous social groups was also studied versus the initial value of opinion uncertainty, varying the proportion of the PA- to C-agents. Bifurcation diagrams showed an impressive evolution of collective opinion, in particular, radical changes of left to right consensus or vice versa at an opinion uncertainty value equal to 0.7 in the model with the PA/C mixture of population near 50/50.

Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Backus, George E.

1989-01-01

Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

The Mass Distribution of Stellar-mass Black Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farr, Will M.; Sravan, Niharika; Cantrell, Andrew; Kreidberg, Laura; Bailyn, Charles D.; Mandel, Ilya; Kalogera, Vicky

2011-11-01

We perform a Bayesian analysis of the mass distribution of stellar-mass black holes using the observed masses of 15 low-mass X-ray binary systems undergoing Roche lobe overflow and 5 high-mass, wind-fed X-ray binary systems. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo calculations, we model the mass distribution both parametrically—as a power law, exponential, Gaussian, combination of two Gaussians, or log-normal distribution—and non-parametrically—as histograms with varying numbers of bins. We provide confidence bounds on the shape of the mass distribution in the context of each model and compare the models with each other by calculating their relative Bayesian evidence as supported by the measurements, taking into account the number of degrees of freedom of each model. The mass distribution of the low-mass systems is best fit by a power law, while the distribution of the combined sample is best fit by the exponential model. This difference indicates that the low-mass subsample is not consistent with being drawn from the distribution of the combined population. We examine the existence of a "gap" between the most massive neutron stars and the least massive black holes by considering the value, M 1%, of the 1% quantile from each black hole mass distribution as the lower bound of black hole masses. Our analysis generates posterior distributions for M 1%; the best model (the power law) fitted to the low-mass systems has a distribution of lower bounds with M 1%>4.3 M sun with 90% confidence, while the best model (the exponential) fitted to all 20 systems has M 1%>4.5 M sun with 90% confidence. We conclude that our sample of black hole masses provides strong evidence of a gap between the maximum neutron star mass and the lower bound on black hole masses. Our results on the low-mass sample are in qualitative agreement with those of Ozel et al., although our broad model selection analysis more reliably reveals the best-fit quantitative description of the underlying mass distribution. The results on the combined sample of low- and high-mass systems are in qualitative agreement with Fryer & Kalogera, although the presence of a mass gap remains theoretically unexplained.

Estimating the Richness of a Population When the Maximum Number of Classes Is Fixed: A Nonparametric Solution to an Archaeological Problem

PubMed Central

Eren, Metin I.; Chao, Anne; Hwang, Wen-Han; Colwell, Robert K.

2012-01-01

Background Estimating assemblage species or class richness from samples remains a challenging, but essential, goal. Though a variety of statistical tools for estimating species or class richness have been developed, they are all singly-bounded: assuming only a lower bound of species or classes. Nevertheless there are numerous situations, particularly in the cultural realm, where the maximum number of classes is fixed. For this reason, a new method is needed to estimate richness when both upper and lower bounds are known. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we introduce a new method for estimating class richness: doubly-bounded confidence intervals (both lower and upper bounds are known). We specifically illustrate our new method using the Chao1 estimator, rarefaction, and extrapolation, although any estimator of asymptotic richness can be used in our method. Using a case study of Clovis stone tools from the North American Lower Great Lakes region, we demonstrate that singly-bounded richness estimators can yield confidence intervals with upper bound estimates larger than the possible maximum number of classes, while our new method provides estimates that make empirical sense. Conclusions/Significance Application of the new method for constructing doubly-bound richness estimates of Clovis stone tools permitted conclusions to be drawn that were not otherwise possible with singly-bounded richness estimates, namely, that Lower Great Lakes Clovis Paleoindians utilized a settlement pattern that was probably more logistical in nature than residential. However, our new method is not limited to archaeological applications. It can be applied to any set of data for which there is a fixed maximum number of classes, whether that be site occupancy models, commercial products (e.g. athletic shoes), or census information (e.g. nationality, religion, age, race). PMID:22666316

Effects of noise and confidence thresholds in nominal and metric Axelrod dynamics of social influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Sanctis, Luca; Galla, Tobias

2009-04-01

We study the effects of bounded confidence thresholds and of interaction and external noise on Axelrod’s model of social influence. Our study is based on a combination of numerical simulations and an integration of the mean-field master equation describing the system in the thermodynamic limit. We find that interaction thresholds affect the system only quantitatively, but that they do not alter the basic phase structure. The known crossover between an ordered and a disordered state in finite systems subject to external noise persists in models with general confidence threshold. Interaction noise here facilitates the dynamics and reduces relaxation times. We also study Axelrod systems with metric features and point out similarities and differences compared to models with nominal features.

The use of sequential indicator simulation to characterize geostatistical uncertainty; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, K.M.

1992-10-01

Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) is a geostatistical technique designed to aid in the characterization of uncertainty about the structure or behavior of natural systems. This report discusses a simulation experiment designed to study the quality of uncertainty bounds generated using SIS. The results indicate that, while SIS may produce reasonable uncertainty bounds in many situations, factors like the number and location of available sample data, the quality of variogram models produced by the user, and the characteristics of the geologic region to be modeled, can all have substantial effects on the accuracy and precision of estimated confidence limits. It ismore » recommended that users of SIS conduct validation studies for the technique on their particular regions of interest before accepting the output uncertainty bounds.« less

Statistical model for forecasting monthly large wildfire events in western United States

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Anthony L. Westerling

2006-01-01

The ability to forecast the number and location of large wildfire events (with specified confidence bounds) is important to fire managers attempting to allocate and distribute suppression efforts during severe fire seasons. This paper describes the development of a statistical model for assessing the forecasting skills of fire-danger predictors and producing 1-month-...

Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements

DOE PAGES

Jeon, Soyoung; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F.

2016-02-16

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) or the risk ratio (RR) and associated confidence intervals. Many such analyses use climate model output to characterize extreme event behavior with and without anthropogenic influence. However, such climate models may have biases in their representation of extreme events. To account for discrepancies in the probabilities of extreme events between observational datasets and model datasets, we demonstrate an appropriate rescaling of the model output basedmore » on the quantiles of the datasets to estimate an adjusted risk ratio. Our methodology accounts for various components of uncertainty in estimation of the risk ratio. In particular, we present an approach to construct a one-sided confidence interval on the lower bound of the risk ratio when the estimated risk ratio is infinity. We demonstrate the methodology using the summer 2011 central US heatwave and output from the Community Earth System Model. In this example, we find that the lower bound of the risk ratio is relatively insensitive to the magnitude and probability of the actual event.« less

Reliability Stress-Strength Models for Dependent Observations with Applications in Clinical Trials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kushary, Debashis; Kulkarni, Pandurang M.

1995-01-01

We consider the applications of stress-strength models in studies involving clinical trials. When studying the effects and side effects of certain procedures (treatments), it is often the case that observations are correlated due to subject effect, repeated measurements and observing many characteristics simultaneously. We develop maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of the reliability which in clinical trial studies could be considered as the chances of increased side effects due to a particular procedure compared to another. The results developed apply to both univariate and multivariate situations. Also, for the univariate situations we develop simple to use lower confidence bounds for the reliability. Further, we consider the cases when both stress and strength constitute time dependent processes. We define the future reliability and obtain methods of constructing lower confidence bounds for this reliability. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate all the procedures developed and also to compare the MLE and the UMVUE.

Pattern selection and super-patterns in the bounded confidence model

DOE PAGES

Ben-Naim, E.; Scheel, A.

2015-10-26

We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes ofmore » the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. Furthermore, the spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.« less

Pattern selection and super-patterns in the bounded confidence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Naim, E.; Scheel, A.

2015-10-01

We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes of the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. The spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khachatryan, Vardan

A search for pair production of neutral color-octet weak-triplet scalar particles (Θ 0) is performed in processes where one Θ 0 decays to a pair of b quark jets and the other to a Z boson plus a jet, with the Z boson decaying to a pair of electrons or muons. The search is performed with data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb –1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV. The number of observed events is found to be in agreement with the standard model predictions. Themore » 95% confidence level upper limit on the product of the cross section and branching fraction is obtained as a function of the Θ 0 mass. The 95% confidence level lower bounds on the Θ 0 mass are found to be 623 and 426 GeV, for two different octo-triplet theoretical scenarios. These are the first direct experimental bounds on particles predicted by the octo-triplet model.« less

Structured Uncertainty Bound Determination From Data for Control and Performance Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Kyong B.

2003-01-01

This report attempts to document the broad scope of issues that must be satisfactorily resolved before one can expect to methodically obtain, with a reasonable confidence, a near-optimal robust closed loop performance in physical applications. These include elements of signal processing, noise identification, system identification, model validation, and uncertainty modeling. Based on a recently developed methodology involving a parameterization of all model validating uncertainty sets for a given linear fractional transformation (LFT) structure and noise allowance, a new software, Uncertainty Bound Identification (UBID) toolbox, which conveniently executes model validation tests and determine uncertainty bounds from data, has been designed and is currently available. This toolbox also serves to benchmark the current state-of-the-art in uncertainty bound determination and in turn facilitate benchmarking of robust control technology. To help clarify the methodology and use of the new software, two tutorial examples are provided. The first involves the uncertainty characterization of a flexible structure dynamics, and the second example involves a closed loop performance validation of a ducted fan based on an uncertainty bound from data. These examples, along with other simulation and experimental results, also help describe the many factors and assumptions that determine the degree of success in applying robust control theory to practical problems.

Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

Limits of Gaussian fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background at 19.2 GHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boughn, S. P.; Cheng, E. S.; Cottingham, D. A.; Fixsen, D. J.

1992-01-01

The Northern Hemisphere data from the 19.2 GHz full sky survey are analyzed to place limits on the magnitude of Gaussian fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background implied by a variety of correlation functions. Included among the models tested are the monochromatic and Gaussian-shaped families, and those with power-law spectra for n values between -2 and 1. An upper bound is placed on the quadrupole anisotropy of Delta T/T less than 3.2 x 10 exp -5 rms, and an upper bound on scale-invariant (n = 1) fluctuations of a2 less than 4.5 x 10 exp -5 (95 percent confidence level). There is significant contamination of these data from Galactic emission, and improvement of the modeling of the Galaxy could yield a significant reduction of these upper bounds.

Limits on Gaussian fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background at 19.2 GHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boughn, S. P.; Cheng, E. S.; Cottingham, D. A.; Fixsen, D. J.

1991-01-01

The Northern Hemisphere data from the 19.2 GHz full sky survey are analyzed to place limits on the magnitude of Gaussian fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background implied by a variety of correlation functions. Included among the models tested are the monochromatic and Gaussian-shaped families, and those with power law spectra for n from -2 to 1. We place an upper bound on the quadrupole anisotropy of DeltaT/T less than 3.2 x 10 exp -5 rms, and an upper bound on scale-invariant (n = 1) fluctuations of a2 less than 4.5 x 10 exp -5 (95 percent confidence level). There is significant contamination of these data from Galactic emission, and improvement of our modeling of the Galaxy could yield a significant reduction of these upper bounds.

Data on electrical energy conservation using high efficiency motors for the confidence bounds using statistical techniques.

PubMed

Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba; Memon, Abdul Jabbar; Hussain, Manzoor

2016-09-01

In this article, we describe details of the data used in the research paper "Confidence bounds for energy conservation in electric motors: An economical solution using statistical techniques" [1]. The data presented in this paper is intended to show benefits of high efficiency electric motors over the standard efficiency motors of similar rating in the industrial sector of Pakistan. We explain how the data was collected and then processed by means of formulas to show cost effectiveness of energy efficient motors in terms of three important parameters: annual energy saving, cost saving and payback periods. This data can be further used to construct confidence bounds for the parameters using statistical techniques as described in [1].

Deffuant model of opinion formation in one-dimensional multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Yilun

2015-10-01

Complex systems in the real world often operate through multiple kinds of links connecting their constituents. In this paper we propose an opinion formation model under bounded confidence over multiplex networks, consisting of edges at different topological and temporal scales. We determine rigorously the critical confidence threshold by exploiting probability theory and network science when the nodes are arranged on the integers, {{Z}}, evolving in continuous time. It is found that the existence of ‘multiplexity’ impedes the convergence, and that working with the aggregated or summarized simplex network is inaccurate since it misses vital information. Analytical calculations are confirmed by extensive numerical simulations.

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2006-01-01

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Estimating the confidence bounds for projected ozone design values under different emissions control options

EPA Science Inventory

In current regulatory applications, regional air quality model is applied for a base year and a future year with reduced emissions using the same meteorological conditions. The base year design value is multiplied by the ratio of the average of the top 10 ozone concentrations fo...

Search for neutral color-octet weak-triplet scalar particles in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, Vardan

2015-09-29

A search for pair production of neutral color-octet weak-triplet scalar particles (Θ 0) is performed in processes where one Θ 0 decays to a pair of b quark jets and the other to a Z boson plus a jet, with the Z boson decaying to a pair of electrons or muons. The search is performed with data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb –1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV. The number of observed events is found to be in agreement with the standard model predictions. Themore » 95% confidence level upper limit on the product of the cross section and branching fraction is obtained as a function of the Θ 0 mass. The 95% confidence level lower bounds on the Θ 0 mass are found to be 623 and 426 GeV, for two different octo-triplet theoretical scenarios. These are the first direct experimental bounds on particles predicted by the octo-triplet model.« less

Search for neutral color-octet weak-triplet scalar particles in proton-proton collisions at √{s}=8 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Asilar, E.; Bergauer, T.; Brandstetter, J.; Brondolin, E.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Flechl, M.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Hartl, C.; Hörmann, N.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; Knünz, V.; König, A.; Krammer, M.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Matsushita, T.; Mikulec, I.; Rabady, D.; Rahbaran, B.; Rohringer, H.; Schieck, J.; Schöfbeck, R.; Strauss, J.; Treberer-Treberspurg, W.; Waltenberger, W.; Wulz, C.-E.; Mossolov, V.; Shumeiko, N.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; Alderweireldt, S.; Cornelis, T.; De Wolf, E. A.; Janssen, X.; Knutsson, A.; Lauwers, J.; Luyckx, S.; Ochesanu, S.; Rougny, R.; Van De Klundert, M.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Van Spilbeeck, A.; Abu Zeid, S.; Blekman, F.; D'Hondt, J.; Daci, N.; De Bruyn, I.; Deroover, K.; Heracleous, N.; Keaveney, J.; Lowette, S.; Moreels, L.; Olbrechts, A.; Python, Q.; Strom, D.; Tavernier, S.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Van Parijs, I.; Barria, P.; Caillol, C.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Delannoy, H.; Dobur, D.; Fasanella, G.; Favart, L.; Gay, A. P. R.; Grebenyuk, A.; Léonard, A.; Mohammadi, A.; Perniè, L.; Randleconde, A.; Reis, T.; Seva, T.; Thomas, L.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Wang, J.; Zenoni, F.; Zhang, F.; Beernaert, K.; Benucci, L.; Cimmino, A.; Crucy, S.; Fagot, A.; Garcia, G.; Gul, M.; Mccartin, J.; Ocampo Rios, A. A.; Poyraz, D.; Ryckbosch, D.; Salva Diblen, S.; Sigamani, M.; Strobbe, N.; Tytgat, M.; Van Driessche, W.; Yazgan, E.; Zaganidis, N.; Basegmez, S.; Beluffi, C.; Bondu, O.; Bruno, G.; Castello, R.; Caudron, A.; Ceard, L.; Da Silveira, G. G.; Delaere, C.; Favart, D.; Forthomme, L.; Giammanco, A.; Hollar, J.; Jafari, A.; Jez, P.; Komm, M.; Lemaitre, V.; Mertens, A.; Nuttens, C.; Perrini, L.; Pin, A.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Popov, A.; Quertenmont, L.; Selvaggi, M.; Vidal Marono, M.; Beliy, N.; Caebergs, T.; Hammad, G. H.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Alves, G. A.; Brito, L.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; Dos Reis Martins, T.; Hensel, C.; Mora Herrera, C.; Moraes, A.; Pol, M. E.; Rebello Teles, P.; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, E.; Carvalho, W.; Chinellato, J.; Custódio, A.; Da Costa, E. M.; De Jesus Damiao, D.; De Oliveira Martins, C.; Fonseca De Souza, S.; Huertas Guativa, L. M.; Malbouisson, H.; Matos Figueiredo, D.; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Prado Da Silva, W. L.; Santoro, A.; Sznajder, A.; Tonelli Manganote, E. J.; Vilela Pereira, A.; Ahuja, S.; Bernardes, C. A.; De Souza Santos, A.; Dogra, S.; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T. R.; Gregores, E. M.; Mercadante, P. G.; Moon, C. S.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Romero Abad, D.; Ruiz Vargas, J. C.; Aleksandrov, A.; Genchev, V.; Hadjiiska, R.; Iaydjiev, P.; Marinov, A.; Piperov, S.; Rodozov, M.; Stoykova, S.; Sultanov, G.; Vutova, M.; Dimitrov, A.; Glushkov, I.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Ahmad, M.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, M.; Cheng, T.; Du, R.; Jiang, C. H.; Plestina, R.; Romeo, F.; Shaheen, S. M.; Tao, J.; Wang, C.; Wang, Z.; Zhang, H.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Ban, Y.; Li, Q.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Wang, D.; Xu, Z.; Zou, W.; Avila, C.; Cabrera, A.; Chaparro Sierra, L. F.; Florez, C.; Gomez, J. P.; Gomez Moreno, B.; Sanabria, J. C.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Polic, D.; Puljak, I.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Kadija, K.; Luetic, J.; Sudic, L.; Attikis, A.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Rykaczewski, H.; Bodlak, M.; Finger, M.; Finger, M.; Ali, A.; Aly, R.; Aly, S.; Elgammal, S.; Ellithi Kamel, A.; Lotfy, A.; Mahmoud, M. A.; Masod, R.; Radi, A.; Calpas, B.; Kadastik, M.; Murumaa, M.; Raidal, M.; Tiko, A.; Veelken, C.; Eerola, P.; Voutilainen, M.; Härkönen, J.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Mäenpää, T.; Pekkanen, J.; Peltola, T.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Tuovinen, E.; Wendland, L.; Talvitie, J.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Couderc, F.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Fabbro, B.; Faure, J. L.; Favaro, C.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Jarry, P.; Locci, E.; Machet, M.; Malcles, J.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Titov, M.; Zghiche, A.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Busson, P.; Cadamuro, L.; Chapon, E.; Charlot, C.; Dahms, T.; Davignon, O.; Filipovic, N.; Florent, A.; Granier de Cassagnac, R.; Lisniak, S.; Mastrolorenzo, L.; Miné, P.; Naranjo, I. N.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Ortona, G.; Paganini, P.; Regnard, S.; Salerno, R.; Sauvan, J. B.; Sirois, Y.; Strebler, T.; Yilmaz, Y.; Zabi, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Aubin, A.; Bloch, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Buttignol, M.; Chabert, E. C.; Chanon, N.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Goetzmann, C.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Merlin, J. A.; Skovpen, K.; Van Hove, P.; Gadrat, S.; Beauceron, S.; Beaupere, N.; Bernet, C.; Boudoul, G.; Bouvier, E.; Brochet, S.; Carrillo Montoya, C. A.; Chasserat, J.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Courbon, B.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fan, J.; Fay, J.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Ille, B.; Laktineh, I. B.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Pequegnot, A. L.; Perries, S.; Ruiz Alvarez, J. D.; Sabes, D.; Sgandurra, L.; Sordini, V.; Vander Donckt, M.; Verdier, P.; Viret, S.; Xiao, H.; Lomidze, D.; Autermann, C.; Beranek, S.; Edelhoff, M.; Feld, L.; Heister, A.; Kiesel, M. K.; Klein, K.; Lipinski, M.; Ostapchuk, A.; Preuten, M.; Raupach, F.; Sammet, J.; Schael, S.; Schulte, J. F.; Verlage, T.; Weber, H.; Wittmer, B.; Zhukov, V.; Ata, M.; Brodski, M.; Dietz-Laursonn, E.; Duchardt, D.; Endres, M.; Erdmann, M.; Erdweg, S.; Esch, T.; Fischer, R.; Güth, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heidemann, C.; Hoepfner, K.; Klingebiel, D.; Knutzen, S.; Kreuzer, P.; Merschmeyer, M.; Meyer, A.; Millet, P.; Olschewski, M.; Padeken, K.; Papacz, P.; Pook, T.; Radziej, M.; Reithler, H.; Rieger, M.; Scheuch, F.; Sonnenschein, L.; Teyssier, D.; Thüer, S.; Cherepanov, V.; Erdogan, Y.; Flügge, G.; Geenen, H.; Geisler, M.; Haj Ahmad, W.; Hoehle, F.; Kargoll, B.; Kress, T.; Kuessel, Y.; Künsken, A.; Lingemann, J.; Nehrkorn, A.; Nowack, A.; Nugent, I. M.; Pistone, C.; Pooth, O.; Stahl, A.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Asin, I.; Bartosik, N.; Behnke, O.; Behrens, U.; Bell, A. J.; Borras, K.; Burgmeier, A.; Cakir, A.; Calligaris, L.; Campbell, A.; Choudhury, S.; Costanza, F.; Diez Pardos, C.; Dolinska, G.; Dooling, S.; Dorland, T.; Eckerlin, G.; Eckstein, D.; Eichhorn, T.; Flucke, G.; Gallo, E.; Garay Garcia, J.; Geiser, A.; Gizhko, A.; Gunnellini, P.; Hauk, J.; Hempel, M.; Jung, H.; Kalogeropoulos, A.; Karacheban, O.; Kasemann, M.; Katsas, P.; Kieseler, J.; Kleinwort, C.; Korol, I.; Lange, W.; Leonard, J.; Lipka, K.; Lobanov, A.; Lohmann, W.; Mankel, R.; Marfin, I.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.-A.; Meyer, A. B.; Mittag, G.; Mnich, J.; Mussgiller, A.; Naumann-Emme, S.; Nayak, A.; Ntomari, E.; Perrey, H.; Pitzl, D.; Placakyte, R.; Raspereza, A.; Ribeiro Cipriano, P. M.; Roland, B.; Sahin, M. Ö.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Saxena, P.; Schoerner-Sadenius, T.; Schröder, M.; Seitz, C.; Spannagel, S.; Trippkewitz, K. D.; Wissing, C.; Blobel, V.; Centis Vignali, M.; Draeger, A. R.; Erfle, J.; Garutti, E.; Goebel, K.; Gonzalez, D.; Görner, M.; Haller, J.; Hoffmann, M.; Höing, R. S.; Junkes, A.; Klanner, R.; Kogler, R.; Lapsien, T.; Lenz, T.; Marchesini, I.; Marconi, D.; Nowatschin, D.; Ott, J.; Pantaleo, F.; Peiffer, T.; Perieanu, A.; Pietsch, N.; Poehlsen, J.; Rathjens, D.; Sander, C.; Schettler, H.; Schleper, P.; Schlieckau, E.; Schmidt, A.; Seidel, M.; Sola, V.; Stadie, H.; Steinbrück, G.; Tholen, H.; Troendle, D.; Usai, E.; Vanelderen, L.; Vanhoefer, A.; Akbiyik, M.; Barth, C.; Baus, C.; Berger, J.; Böser, C.; Butz, E.; Chwalek, T.; Colombo, F.; De Boer, W.; Descroix, A.; Dierlamm, A.; Feindt, M.; Frensch, F.; Giffels, M.; Gilbert, A.; Hartmann, F.; Husemann, U.; Kassel, F.; Katkov, I.; Kornmayer, A.; Lobelle Pardo, P.; Mozer, M. U.; Müller, T.; Müller, Th.; Plagge, M.; Quast, G.; Rabbertz, K.; Röcker, S.; Roscher, F.; Simonis, H. J.; Stober, F. M.; Ulrich, R.; Wagner-Kuhr, J.; Wayand, S.; Weiler, T.; Wöhrmann, C.; Wolf, R.; Anagnostou, G.; Daskalakis, G.; Geralis, T.; Giakoumopoulou, V. A.; Kyriakis, A.; Loukas, D.; Markou, A.; Psallidas, A.; Topsis-Giotis, I.; Agapitos, A.; Kesisoglou, S.; Panagiotou, A.; Saoulidou, N.; Tziaferi, E.; Evangelou, I.; Flouris, G.; Foudas, C.; Kokkas, P.; Loukas, N.; Manthos, N.; Papadopoulos, I.; Paradas, E.; Strologas, J.; Bencze, G.; Hajdu, C.; Hazi, A.; Hidas, P.; Horvath, D.; Sikler, F.; Veszpremi, V.; Vesztergombi, G.; Zsigmond, A. J.; Beni, N.; Czellar, S.; Karancsi, J.; Molnar, J.; Szillasi, Z.; Bartók, M.; Makovec, A.; Raics, P.; Trocsanyi, Z. L.; Ujvari, B.; Mal, P.; Mandal, K.; Sahoo, N.; Swain, S. K.; Bansal, S.; Beri, S. B.; Bhatnagar, V.; Chawla, R.; Gupta, R.; Bhawandeep, U.; Kalsi, A. K.; Kaur, A.; Kaur, M.; Kumar, R.; Mehta, A.; Mittal, M.; Nishu, N.; Singh, J. B.; Walia, G.; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Bhardwaj, A.; Choudhary, B. C.; Garg, R. B.; Kumar, A.; Malhotra, S.; Naimuddin, M.; Ranjan, K.; Sharma, R.; Sharma, V.; Banerjee, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Chatterjee, K.; Dey, S.; Dutta, S.; Jain, Sa.; Jain, Sh.; Khurana, R.; Majumdar, N.; Modak, A.; Mondal, K.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Roy, A.; Roy, D.; Roy Chowdhury, S.; Sarkar, S.; Sharan, M.; Abdulsalam, A.; Chudasama, R.; Dutta, D.; Jha, V.; Kumar, V.; Mohanty, A. K.; Pant, L. M.; Shukla, P.; Topkar, A.; Aziz, T.; Banerjee, S.; Bhowmik, S.; Chatterjee, R. M.; Dewanjee, R. K.; Dugad, S.; Ganguly, S.; Ghosh, S.; Guchait, M.; Gurtu, A.; Kole, G.; Kumar, S.; Mahakud, B.; Maity, M.; Majumder, G.; Mazumdar, K.; Mitra, S.; Mohanty, G. B.; Parida, B.; Sarkar, T.; Sudhakar, K.; Sur, N.; Sutar, B.; Wickramage, N.; Sharma, S.; Bakhshiansohi, H.; Behnamian, H.; Etesami, S. M.; Fahim, A.; Goldouzian, R.; Khakzad, M.; Mohammadi Najafabadi, M.; Naseri, M.; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, S.; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, F.; Safarzadeh, B.; Zeinali, M.; Felcini, M.; Grunewald, M.; Abbrescia, M.; Calabria, C.; Caputo, C.; Chhibra, S. S.; Colaleo, A.; Creanza, D.; Cristella, L.; De Filippis, N.; De Palma, M.; Fiore, L.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Maggi, M.; Miniello, G.; My, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Pompili, A.; Pugliese, G.; Radogna, R.; Ranieri, A.; Selvaggi, G.; Sharma, A.; Silvestris, L.; Venditti, R.; Verwilligen, P.; Abbiendi, G.; Battilana, C.; Benvenuti, A. C.; Bonacorsi, D.; Braibant-Giacomelli, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Campanini, R.; Capiluppi, P.; Castro, A.; Cavallo, F. R.; Codispoti, G.; Cuffiani, M.; Dallavalle, G. M.; Fabbri, F.; Fanfani, A.; Fasanella, D.; Giacomelli, P.; Grandi, C.; Guiducci, L.; Marcellini, S.; Masetti, G.; Montanari, A.; Navarria, F. L.; Perrotta, A.; Rossi, A. M.; Rovelli, T.; Siroli, G. P.; Tosi, N.; Travaglini, R.; Cappello, G.; Chiorboli, M.; Costa, S.; Giordano, F.; Potenza, R.; Tricomi, A.; Tuve, C.; Barbagli, G.; Ciulli, V.; Civinini, C.; D'Alessandro, R.; Focardi, E.; Gonzi, S.; Gori, V.; Lenzi, P.; Meschini, M.; Paoletti, S.; Sguazzoni, G.; Tropiano, A.; Viliani, L.; Benussi, L.; Bianco, S.; Fabbri, F.; Piccolo, D.; Calvelli, V.; Ferro, F.; Vetere, M. Lo; Robutti, E.; Tosi, S.; Dinardo, M. E.; Fiorendi, S.; Gennai, S.; Gerosa, R.; Ghezzi, A.; Govoni, P.; Malvezzi, S.; Manzoni, R. A.; Marzocchi, B.; Menasce, D.; Moroni, L.; Paganoni, M.; Pedrini, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Redaelli, N.; Tabarelli de Fatis, T.; Buontempo, S.; Cavallo, N.; Di Guida, S.; Esposito, M.; Fabozzi, F.; Iorio, A. O. M.; Lanza, G.; Lista, L.; Meola, S.; Merola, M.; Paolucci, P.; Sciacca, C.; Thyssen, F.; Azzi, P.; Bacchetta, N.; Bisello, D.; Carlin, R.; Carvalho Antunes De Oliveira, A.; Checchia, P.; Dall'Osso, M.; Dorigo, T.; Gasparini, F.; Gasparini, U.; Gozzelino, A.; Lacaprara, S.; Margoni, M.; Meneguzzo, A. T.; Pazzini, J.; Pozzobon, N.; Ronchese, P.; Sgaravatto, M.; Simonetto, F.; Torassa, E.; Tosi, M.; Vanini, S.; Ventura, S.; Zanetti, M.; Zotto, P.; Zucchetta, A.; Zumerle, G.; Braghieri, A.; Gabusi, M.; Magnani, A.; Ratti, S. P.; Re, V.; Riccardi, C.; Salvini, P.; Vai, I.; Vitulo, P.; Alunni Solestizi, L.; Biasini, M.; Bilei, G. M.; Ciangottini, D.; Fanò, L.; Lariccia, P.; Mantovani, G.; Menichelli, M.; Saha, A.; Santocchia, A.; Spiezia, A.; Androsov, K.; Azzurri, P.; Bagliesi, G.; Bernardini, J.; Boccali, T.; Broccolo, G.; Castaldi, R.; Ciocci, M. A.; Dell'Orso, R.; Donato, S.; Fedi, G.; Foà, L.; Giassi, A.; Grippo, M. T.; Ligabue, F.; Lomtadze, T.; Martini, L.; Messineo, A.; Palla, F.; Rizzi, A.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Serban, A. T.; Spagnolo, P.; Squillacioti, P.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Venturi, A.; Verdini, P. G.; Barone, L.; Cavallari, F.; D'imperio, G.; Del Re, D.; Diemoz, M.; Gelli, S.; Jorda, C.; Longo, E.; Margaroli, F.; Meridiani, P.; Micheli, F.; Organtini, G.; Paramatti, R.; Preiato, F.; Rahatlou, S.; Rovelli, C.; Santanastasio, F.; Soffi, L.; Traczyk, P.; Amapane, N.; Arcidiacono, R.; Argiro, S.; Arneodo, M.; Bellan, R.; Biino, C.; Cartiglia, N.; Casasso, S.; Costa, M.; Covarelli, R.; Degano, A.; Demaria, N.; Finco, L.; Mariotti, C.; Maselli, S.; Migliore, E.; Monaco, V.; Musich, M.; Obertino, M. M.; Pacher, L.; Pastrone, N.; Pelliccioni, M.; Pinna Angioni, G. L.; Romero, A.; Ruspa, M.; Sacchi, R.; Solano, A.; Staiano, A.; Tamponi, U.; Trapani, P. P.; Belforte, S.; Candelise, V.; Casarsa, M.; Cossutti, F.; Della Ricca, G.; Gobbo, B.; La Licata, C.; Marone, M.; Schizzi, A.; Umer, T.; Zanetti, A.; Chang, S.; Kropivnitskaya, A.; Nam, S. K.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, G. N.; Kim, M. S.; Kong, D. J.; Lee, S.; Oh, Y. D.; Sakharov, A.; Son, D. C.; Kim, H.; Kim, T. J.; Ryu, M. S.; Song, S.; Choi, S.; Go, Y.; Gyun, D.; Hong, B.; Jo, M.; Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Lee, B.; Lee, K.; Lee, K. S.; Lee, S.; Park, S. K.; Roh, Y.; Yoo, H. D.; Choi, M.; Kim, J. H.; Lee, J. S. H.; Park, I. C.; Ryu, G.; Choi, Y.; Choi, Y. K.; Goh, J.; Kim, D.; Kwon, E.; Lee, J.; Yu, I.; Juodagalvis, A.; Vaitkus, J.; Ibrahim, Z. A.; Komaragiri, J. R.; Ali, M. A. B. Md; Mohamad Idris, F.; Wan Abdullah, W. A. T.; Casimiro Linares, E.; Castilla-Valdez, H.; De La Cruz-Burelo, E.; Heredia-de La Cruz, I.; Hernandez-Almada, A.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Ramirez Sanchez, G.; Sanchez-Hernandez, A.; Carrillo Moreno, S.; Vazquez Valencia, F.; Carpinteyro, S.; Pedraza, I.; Salazar Ibarguen, H. A.; Morelos Pineda, A.; Krofcheck, D.; Butler, P. H.; Reucroft, S.; Ahmad, A.; Ahmad, M.; Hassan, Q.; Hoorani, H. R.; Khan, W. A.; Khurshid, T.; Shoaib, M.; Bialkowska, H.; Bluj, M.; Boimska, B.; Frueboes, T.; Górski, M.; Kazana, M.; Nawrocki, K.; Romanowska-Rybinska, K.; Szleper, M.; Zalewski, P.; Brona, G.; Bunkowski, K.; Doroba, K.; Kalinowski, A.; Konecki, M.; Krolikowski, J.; Misiura, M.; Olszewski, M.; Walczak, M.; Bargassa, P.; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, C.; Di Francesco, A.; Faccioli, P.; Ferreira Parracho, P. G.; Gallinaro, M.; Lloret Iglesias, L.; Nguyen, F.; Rodrigues Antunes, J.; Seixas, J.; Toldaiev, O.; Vadruccio, D.; Varela, J.; Vischia, P.; Afanasiev, S.; Bunin, P.; Gavrilenko, M.; Golutvin, I.; Gorbunov, I.; Kamenev, A.; Karjavin, V.; Konoplyanikov, V.; Lanev, A.; Malakhov, A.; Matveev, V.; Moisenz, P.; Palichik, V.; Perelygin, V.; Shmatov, S.; Shulha, S.; Skatchkov, N.; Smirnov, V.; Toriashvili, T.; Zarubin, A.; Golovtsov, V.; Ivanov, Y.; Kim, V.; Kuznetsova, E.; Levchenko, P.; Murzin, V.; Oreshkin, V.; Smirnov, I.; Sulimov, V.; Uvarov, L.; Vavilov, S.; Vorobyev, A.; Andreev, Yu.; Dermenev, A.; Gninenko, S.; Golubev, N.; Karneyeu, A.; Kirsanov, M.; Krasnikov, N.; Pashenkov, A.; Tlisov, D.; Toropin, A.; Epshteyn, V.; Gavrilov, V.; Lychkovskaya, N.; Popov, V.; Pozdnyakov, I.; Safronov, G.; Spiridonov, A.; Vlasov, E.; Zhokin, A.; Bylinkin, A.; Andreev, V.; Azarkin, M.; Dremin, I.; Kirakosyan, M.; Leonidov, A.; Mesyats, G.; Rusakov, S. V.; Vinogradov, A.; Baskakov, A.; Belyaev, A.; Boos, E.; Dubinin, M.; Dudko, L.; Ershov, A.; Gribushin, A.; Klyukhin, V.; Kodolova, O.; Lokhtin, I.; Myagkov, I.; Obraztsov, S.; Petrushanko, S.; Savrin, V.; Snigirev, A.; Azhgirey, I.; Bayshev, I.; Bitioukov, S.; Kachanov, V.; Kalinin, A.; Konstantinov, D.; Krychkine, V.; Petrov, V.; Ryutin, R.; Sobol, A.; Tourtchanovitch, L.; Troshin, S.; Tyurin, N.; Uzunian, A.; Volkov, A.; Adzic, P.; Ekmedzic, M.; Milosevic, J.; Rekovic, V.; Alcaraz Maestre, J.; Calvo, E.; Cerrada, M.; Chamizo Llatas, M.; Colino, N.; De La Cruz, B.; Delgado Peris, A.; Domínguez Vázquez, D.; Escalante Del Valle, A.; Fernandez Bedoya, C.; Fernández Ramos, J. P.; Flix, J.; Fouz, M. C.; Garcia-Abia, P.; Gonzalez Lopez, O.; Goy Lopez, S.; Hernandez, J. M.; Josa, M. I.; Navarro De Martino, E.; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, A.; Puerta Pelayo, J.; Quintario Olmeda, A.; Redondo, I.; Romero, L.; Soares, M. S.; Albajar, C.; de Trocóniz, J. F.; Missiroli, M.; Moran, D.; Brun, H.; Cuevas, J.; Fernandez Menendez, J.; Folgueras, S.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; Palencia Cortezon, E.; Vizan Garcia, J. M.; Brochero Cifuentes, J. A.; Cabrillo, I. J.; Calderon, A.; Castiñeiras De Saa, J. R.; Duarte Campderros, J.; Fernandez, M.; Gomez, G.; Graziano, A.; Lopez Virto, A.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Martinez Rivero, C.; Matorras, F.; Munoz Sanchez, F. J.; Piedra Gomez, J.; Rodrigo, T.; Rodríguez-Marrero, A. Y.; Ruiz-Jimeno, A.; Scodellaro, L.; Vila, I.; Vilar Cortabitarte, R.; Abbaneo, D.; Auffray, E.; Auzinger, G.; Bachtis, M.; Baillon, P.; Ball, A. H.; Barney, D.; Benaglia, A.; Bendavid, J.; Benhabib, L.; Benitez, J. F.; Berruti, G. M.; Bianchi, G.; Bloch, P.; Bocci, A.; Bonato, A.; Botta, C.; Breuker, H.; Camporesi, T.; Cerminara, G.; Colafranceschi, S.; D'Alfonso, M.; d'Enterria, D.; Dabrowski, A.; Daponte, V.; David, A.; De Gruttola, M.; De Guio, F.; De Roeck, A.; De Visscher, S.; Di Marco, E.; Dobson, M.; Dordevic, M.; du Pree, T.; Dupont-Sagorin, N.; Elliott-Peisert, A.; Eugster, J.; Franzoni, G.; Funk, W.; Gigi, D.; Gill, K.; Giordano, D.; Girone, M.; Glege, F.; Guida, R.; Gundacker, S.; Guthoff, M.; Hammer, J.; Hansen, M.; Harris, P.; Hegeman, J.; Innocente, V.; Janot, P.; Kirschenmann, H.; Kortelainen, M. J.; Kousouris, K.; Krajczar, K.; Lecoq, P.; Lourenço, C.; Lucchini, M. T.; Magini, N.; Malgeri, L.; Mannelli, M.; Marrouche, J.; Martelli, A.; Masetti, L.; Meijers, F.; Mersi, S.; Meschi, E.; Moortgat, F.; Morovic, S.; Mulders, M.; Nemallapudi, M. V.; Neugebauer, H.; Orfanelli, S.; Orsini, L.; Pape, L.; Perez, E.; Petrilli, A.; Petrucciani, G.; Pfeiffer, A.; Piparo, D.; Racz, A.; Rolandi, G.; Rovere, M.; Ruan, M.; Sakulin, H.; Schäfer, C.; Schwick, C.; Sharma, A.; Silva, P.; Simon, M.; Sphicas, P.; Spiga, D.; Steggemann, J.; Stieger, B.; Stoye, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Treille, D.; Tsirou, A.; Veres, G. I.; Wardle, N.; Wöhri, H. K.; Zagozdzinska, A.; Zeuner, W. D.; Bertl, W.; Deiters, K.; Erdmann, W.; Horisberger, R.; Ingram, Q.; Kaestli, H. C.; Kotlinski, D.; Langenegger, U.; Rohe, T.; Bachmair, F.; Bäni, L.; Bianchini, L.; Buchmann, M. A.; Casal, B.; Dissertori, G.; Dittmar, M.; Donegà, M.; Dünser, M.; Eller, P.; Grab, C.; Heidegger, C.; Hits, D.; Hoss, J.; Kasieczka, G.; Lustermann, W.; Mangano, B.; Marini, A. C.; Marionneau, M.; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, P.; Masciovecchio, M.; Meister, D.; Mohr, N.; Musella, P.; Nessi-Tedaldi, F.; Pandolfi, F.; Pata, J.; Pauss, F.; Perrozzi, L.; Peruzzi, M.; Quittnat, M.; Rossini, M.; Starodumov, A.; Takahashi, M.; Tavolaro, V. R.; Theofilatos, K.; Wallny, R.; Weber, H. A.; Aarrestad, T. K.; Amsler, C.; Canelli, M. F.; Chiochia, V.; De Cosa, A.; Galloni, C.; Hinzmann, A.; Hreus, T.; Kilminster, B.; Lange, C.; Ngadiuba, J.; Pinna, D.; Robmann, P.; Ronga, F. J.; Salerno, D.; Taroni, S.; Yang, Y.; Cardaci, M.; Chen, K. H.; Doan, T. H.; Ferro, C.; Konyushikhin, M.; Kuo, C. M.; Lin, W.; Lu, Y. J.; Volpe, R.; Yu, S. S.; Chang, P.; Chang, Y. H.; Chang, Y. W.; Chao, Y.; Chen, K. F.; Chen, P. H.; Dietz, C.; Fiori, F.; Grundler, U.; Hou, W.-S.; Hsiung, Y.; Liu, Y. F.; Lu, R.-S.; Miñano Moya, M.; Petrakou, E.; Tsai, J. f.; Tzeng, Y. M.; Wilken, R.; Asavapibhop, B.; Kovitanggoon, K.; Singh, G.; Srimanobhas, N.; Suwonjandee, N.; Adiguzel, A.; Cerci, S.; Dozen, C.; Girgis, S.; Gokbulut, G.; Guler, Y.; Gurpinar, E.; Hos, I.; Kangal, E. E.; Kayis Topaksu, A.; Onengut, G.; Ozdemir, K.; Ozturk, S.; Tali, B.; Topakli, H.; Vergili, M.; Zorbilmez, C.; Akin, I. V.; Bilin, B.; Bilmis, S.; Gamsizkan, H.; Isildak, B.; Karapinar, G.; Surat, U. E.; Yalvac, M.; Zeyrek, M.; Albayrak, E. A.; Gülmez, E.; Kaya, M.; Kaya, O.; Yetkin, T.; Cankocak, K.; Günaydin, Y. O.; Vardarlı, F. I.; Grynyov, B.; Levchuk, L.; Sorokin, P.; Aggleton, R.; Ball, F.; Beck, L.; Brooke, J. J.; Clement, E.; Cussans, D.; Flacher, H.; Goldstein, J.; Grimes, M.; Heath, G. P.; Heath, H. F.; Jacob, J.; Kreczko, L.; Lucas, C.; Meng, Z.; Newbold, D. M.; Paramesvaran, S.; Poll, A.; Sakuma, T.; Seif El Nasr-storey, S.; Senkin, S.; Smith, D.; Smith, V. J.; Bell, K. W.; Belyaev, A.; Brew, C.; Brown, R. M.; Cockerill, D. J. A.; Coughlan, J. 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I.; Henderson, C.; Rumerio, P.; Avetisyan, A.; Bose, T.; Fantasia, C.; Gastler, D.; Lawson, P.; Rankin, D.; Richardson, C.; Rohlf, J.; John, J. St.; Sulak, L.; Zou, D.; Alimena, J.; Berry, E.; Bhattacharya, S.; Cutts, D.; Demiragli, Z.; Dhingra, N.; Ferapontov, A.; Garabedian, A.; Heintz, U.; Laird, E.; Landsberg, G.; Mao, Z.; Narain, M.; Sagir, S.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Breedon, R.; Breto, G.; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, M.; Chauhan, S.; Chertok, M.; Conway, J.; Conway, R.; Cox, P. T.; Erbacher, R.; Gardner, M.; Ko, W.; Lander, R.; Mulhearn, M.; Pellett, D.; Pilot, J.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Shalhout, S.; Smith, J.; Squires, M.; Stolp, D.; Tripathi, M.; Wilbur, S.; Yohay, R.; Cousins, R.; Everaerts, P.; Farrell, C.; Hauser, J.; Ignatenko, M.; Rakness, G.; Saltzberg, D.; Takasugi, E.; Valuev, V.; Weber, M.; Burt, K.; Clare, R.; Ellison, J.; Gary, J. W.; Hanson, G.; Heilman, J.; Ivova Rikova, M.; Jandir, P.; Kennedy, E.; Lacroix, F.; Long, O. R.; Luthra, A.; Malberti, M.; Olmedo Negrete, M.; Shrinivas, A.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Wei, H.; Wimpenny, S.; Branson, J. G.; Cerati, G. B.; Cittolin, S.; D'Agnolo, R. T.; Holzner, A.; Kelley, R.; Klein, D.; Letts, J.; Macneill, I.; Olivito, D.; Padhi, S.; Pieri, M.; Sani, M.; Sharma, V.; Simon, S.; Tadel, M.; Tu, Y.; Vartak, A.; Wasserbaech, S.; Welke, C.; Würthwein, F.; Yagil, A.; Zevi Della Porta, G.; Barge, D.; Bradmiller-Feld, J.; Campagnari, C.; Dishaw, A.; Dutta, V.; Flowers, K.; Franco Sevilla, M.; Geffert, P.; George, C.; Golf, F.; Gouskos, L.; Gran, J.; Incandela, J.; Justus, C.; Mccoll, N.; Mullin, S. D.; Richman, J.; Stuart, D.; To, W.; West, C.; Yoo, J.; Anderson, D.; Apresyan, A.; Bornheim, A.; Bunn, J.; Chen, Y.; Duarte, J.; Mott, A.; Newman, H. B.; Pena, C.; Pierini, M.; Spiropulu, M.; Vlimant, J. R.; Xie, S.; Zhu, R. Y.; Azzolini, V.; Calamba, A.; Carlson, B.; Ferguson, T.; Iiyama, Y.; Paulini, M.; Russ, J.; Sun, M.; Vogel, H.; Vorobiev, I.; Cumalat, J. P.; Ford, W. 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F.; Khatiwada, A.; Prosper, H.; Veeraraghavan, V.; Weinberg, M.; Bhopatkar, V.; Hohlmann, M.; Kalakhety, H.; Mareskas-palcek, D.; Roy, T.; Yumiceva, F.; Adams, M. R.; Apanasevich, L.; Berry, D.; Betts, R. R.; Bucinskaite, I.; Cavanaugh, R.; Evdokimov, O.; Gauthier, L.; Gerber, C. E.; Hofman, D. J.; Kurt, P.; O'Brien, C.; Sandoval Gonzalez, I. D.; Silkworth, C.; Turner, P.; Varelas, N.; Wu, Z.; Zakaria, M.; Bilki, B.; Clarida, W.; Dilsiz, K.; Durgut, S.; Gandrajula, R. P.; Haytmyradov, M.; Khristenko, V.; Merlo, J.-P.; Mermerkaya, H.; Mestvirishvili, A.; Moeller, A.; Nachtman, J.; Ogul, H.; Onel, Y.; Ozok, F.; Penzo, A.; Sen, S.; Snyder, C.; Tan, P.; Tiras, E.; Wetzel, J.; Yi, K.; Anderson, I.; Barnett, B. A.; Blumenfeld, B.; Fehling, D.; Feng, L.; Gritsan, A. V.; Maksimovic, P.; Martin, C.; Nash, K.; Osherson, M.; Swartz, M.; Xiao, M.; Xin, Y.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Benelli, G.; Bruner, C.; Gray, J.; Kenny, R. P.; Majumder, D.; Malek, M.; Murray, M.; Noonan, D.; Sanders, S.; Stringer, R.; Wang, Q.; Wood, J. S.; Chakaberia, I.; Ivanov, A.; Kaadze, K.; Khalil, S.; Makouski, M.; Maravin, Y.; Saini, L. K.; Skhirtladze, N.; Svintradze, I.; Lange, D.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Anelli, C.; Baden, A.; Baron, O.; Belloni, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Ferraioli, C.; Gomez, J. A.; Hadley, N. J.; Jabeen, S.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kolberg, T.; Kunkle, J.; Lu, Y.; Mignerey, A. C.; Pedro, K.; Shin, Y. H.; Skuja, A.; Tonjes, M. B.; Tonwar, S. C.; Apyan, A.; Barbieri, R.; Baty, A.; Bierwagen, K.; Brandt, S.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; Di Matteo, L.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Gulhan, D.; Klute, M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Mcginn, C.; Niu, X.; Paus, C.; Ralph, D.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Sumorok, K.; Varma, M.; Velicanu, D.; Veverka, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, T. W.; Wyslouch, B.; Yang, M.; Zhukova, V.; Dahmes, B.; Finkel, A.; Gude, A.; Hansen, P.; Kalafut, S.; Kao, S. C.; Klapoetke, K.; Kubota, Y.; Mans, J.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Ruckstuhl, N.; Rusack, R.; Tambe, N.; Turkewitz, J.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Bose, S.; Claes, D. R.; Dominguez, A.; Fangmeier, C.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Kamalieddin, R.; Keller, J.; Knowlton, D.; Kravchenko, I.; Lazo-Flores, J.; Meier, F.; Monroy, J.; Ratnikov, F.; Siado, J. E.; Snow, G. R.; Alyari, M.; Dolen, J.; George, J.; Godshalk, A.; Iashvili, I.; Kaisen, J.; Kharchilava, A.; Kumar, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Baumgartel, D.; Chasco, M.; Hortiangtham, A.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Teixeira De Lima, R.; Trocino, D.; Wang, R.-J.; Wood, D.; Zhang, J.; Hahn, K. A.; Kubik, A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Pozdnyakov, A.; Schmitt, M.; Stoynev, S.; Sung, K.; Trovato, M.; Velasco, M.; Won, S.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Dev, N.; Hildreth, M.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Lynch, S.; Marinelli, N.; Meng, F.; Mueller, C.; Musienko, Y.; Pearson, T.; Planer, M.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Valls, N.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Antonelli, L.; Brinson, J.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Hughes, R.; Kotov, K.; Ling, T. Y.; Liu, B.; Luo, W.; Puigh, D.; Rodenburg, M.; Winer, B. L.; Wulsin, H. W.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Koay, S. A.; Lujan, P.; Marlow, D.; Medvedeva, T.; Mooney, M.; Olsen, J.; Palmer, C.; Piroué, P.; Quan, X.; Saka, H.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Werner, J. S.; Zuranski, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Benedetti, D.; Bortoletto, D.; Gutay, L.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, K.; Kress, M.; Leonardo, N.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Primavera, F.; Radburn-Smith, B. C.; Shi, X.; Shipsey, I.; Silvers, D.; Sun, J.; Svyatkovskiy, A.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Xu, L.; Zablocki, J.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Chen, Z.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Guilbaud, M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Northup, M.; Padley, B. P.; Redjimi, R.; Roberts, J.; Rorie, J.; Tu, Z.; Zabel, J.; Betchart, B.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Eshaq, Y.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Goldenzweig, P.; Han, J.; Harel, A.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Petrillo, G.; Verzetti, M.; Vishnevskiy, D.; Demortier, L.; Arora, S.; Barker, A.; Chou, J. 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G.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Janjam, R.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Mao, Y.; Melo, A.; Sheldon, P.; Snook, B.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Xu, Q.; Arenton, M. W.; Boutle, S.; Cox, B.; Francis, B.; Goodell, J.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Lin, C.; Neu, C.; Wolfe, E.; Wood, J.; Xia, F.; Clarke, C.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C.; Lamichhane, P.; Sturdy, J.; Belknap, D. A.; Carlsmith, D.; Cepeda, M.; Christian, A.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Friis, E.; Gomber, B.; Grothe, M.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Levine, A.; Long, K.; Loveless, R.; Mohapatra, A.; Ojalvo, I.; Perry, T.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ross, I.; Ruggles, T.; Sarangi, T.; Savin, A.; Smith, N.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Woods, N.

2015-09-01

A search for pair production of neutral color-octet weak-triplet scalar particles (Θ0) is performed in processes where one Θ0 decays to a pair of b quark jets and the other to a Z boson plus a jet, with the Z boson decaying to a pair of electrons or muons. The search is performed with data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb-1 of proton-proton collisions at √{s}=8 TeV. The number of observed events is found to be in agreement with the standard model predictions. The 95% confidence level upper limit on the product of the cross section and branching fraction is obtained as a function of the Θ0 mass. The 95% confidence level lower bounds on the Θ0 mass are found to be 623 and 426 GeV, for two different octo-triplet theoretical scenarios. These are the first direct experimental bounds on particles predicted by the octo-triplet model. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Search for weakly decaying Λn ‾ and ΛΛ exotic bound states in central Pb-Pb collisions at √{sNN} = 2.76 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, J.; Adamová, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Aglieri Rinella, G.; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahmed, I.; Ahn, S. U.; Aimo, I.; Aiola, S.; Ajaz, M.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anielski, J.; Antičić, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshäuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Armesto, N.; Arnaldi, R.; Aronsson, T.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Bach, M.; Badalà, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Baldisseri, A.; Ball, M.; Baltasar Dos Santos Pedrosa, F.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnaföldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Basu, S.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Batista Camejo, A.; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielčík, J.; Bielčíková, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blanco, F.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Bøggild, H.; Boldizsár, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossú, F.; Botje, M.; Botta, E.; Böttger, S.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Buxton, J. T.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Calero Diaz, L.; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Castillo Castellanos, J.; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Cavicchioli, C.; Ceballos Sanchez, C.; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Chibante Barroso, V.; Chinellato, D. D.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Chung, S. U.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Conesa Balbastre, G.; Conesa del Valle, Z.; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Corrales Morales, Y.; Cortés Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danu, A.; Das, D.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Dénes, E.; D'Erasmo, G.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Diaz Corchero, M. A.; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divià, R.; Djuvsland, Ø.; Dobrin, A.; Dobrowolski, T.; Domenicis Gimenez, D.; Dönigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Engel, H.; Erazmus, B.; Erhardt, F.; Eschweiler, D.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Felea, D.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernández Téllez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Fusco Girard, M.; Gaardhøje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Ghosh, P.; Ghosh, S. K.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glässel, P.; Gomez Ramirez, A.; González-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Görlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grossiord, J.-Y.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gulkanyan, H.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, R.; Haake, R.; Haaland, Ø.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hanratty, L. D.; Hansen, A.; Harris, J. W.; Hartmann, H.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Heide, M.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hilden, T. E.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Hristov, P.; Huang, M.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Ilkiv, I.; Inaba, M.; Ionita, C.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jachołkowski, A.; Jacobs, P. M.; Jahnke, C.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Jimenez Bustamante, R. T.; Jones, P. G.; Jung, H.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kang, J. H.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Karasu Uysal, A.; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, K. H.; Khan, M. M.; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, H.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein, J.; Klein-Bösing, C.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Köhler, M. K.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Kox, S.; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, G.; Kral, J.; Králik, I.; Kravčáková, A.; Krelina, M.; Kretz, M.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kučera, V.; Kucheriaev, Y.; Kugathasan, T.; Kuhn, C.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kulakov, I.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kushpil, S.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Legrand, I.; Lehnert, J.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; León Monzón, I.; Leoncino, M.; Lévai, P.; Li, S.; Li, X.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loggins, V. R.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; López Torres, E.; Lowe, A.; Lu, X.-G.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manceau, L.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mareš, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marín, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martashvili, I.; Martin, N. A.; Martin Blanco, J.; Martinengo, P.; Martínez, M. I.; Martínez García, G.; Martinez Pedreira, M.; Martynov, Y.; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Massacrier, L.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Mercado Pérez, J.; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Minervini, L. M.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miśkowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montaño Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; Morando, M.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Mühlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Müller, H.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Nattrass, C.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, P.; Paić, G.; Pajares, C.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Pandey, A. K.; Pant, D.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Paul, B.; Pawlak, T.; Peitzmann, T.; Pereira Da Costa, H.; Pereira De Oliveira Filho, E.; Peresunko, D.; Pérez Lara, C. E.; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petráček, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Płoskoń, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Räsänen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Razazi, V.; Read, K. F.; Real, J. S.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Rehman, A.; Reichelt, P.; Reicher, M.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Rettig, F.; Revol, J.-P.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rivetti, A.; Rocco, E.; Rodríguez Cahuantzi, M.; Rodriguez Manso, A.; Røed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Röhrich, D.; Romita, R.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Rubio Montero, A. J.; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Sadovsky, S.; Šafařík, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salgado, C. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sanchez Castro, X.; Šándor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Santagati, G.; Sarkar, D.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Scharenberg, R. P.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schuster, T.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Seeder, K. S.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Seo, J.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, A.; Sharma, N.; Shigaki, K.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Søgaard, C.; Soltz, R.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Srivastava, B. K.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stefanek, G.; Steinpreis, M.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Sultanov, R.; Šumbera, M.; Symons, T. J. M.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Takahashi, J.; Tanaka, N.; Tangaro, M. A.; Tapia Takaki, J. D.; Tarantola Peloni, A.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Muñoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thäder, J.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vajzer, M.; Vala, M.; Valencia Palomo, L.; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vande Vyvre, P.; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Venaruzzo, M.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limón, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Villalobos Baillie, O.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Völkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrláková, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Vyushin, A.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Watanabe, D.; Weber, M.; Weber, S. G.; Wessels, J. P.; Westerhoff, U.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilde, M.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yaldo, C. G.; Yamaguchi, Y.; Yang, H.; Yang, P.; Yano, S.; Yasnopolskiy, S.; Yin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I.-K.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zarochentsev, A.; Závada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, D.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, X.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

2016-01-01

We present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possible Λn ‾ bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0-10%) Pb-Pb collisions at √{sNN} = 2.76 TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes Λn ‾ → d ‾π+ and H-dibaryon → Λpπ-. No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton.

Search for weakly decaying Λ n - and ΛΛ exotic bound states in central Pb–Pb collisions at s NN = 2.76  TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adam, J.; Adamová, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.

Here, we present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possiblemore » $$\\overline{Λn}$$ bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0-10%) Pb-Pb collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}$$$_ {NN}$$ = 2.76 TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes $$\\overline{Λn}$$ → $$\\bar{d}$$π + and H-dibaryon →Λpπ -. No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton.« less

Search for weakly decaying Λ n - and ΛΛ exotic bound states in central Pb–Pb collisions at s NN = 2.76  TeV

DOE PAGES

Adam, J.; Adamová, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; ...

2016-11-28

Here, we present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possiblemore » $$\\overline{Λn}$$ bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0-10%) Pb-Pb collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}$$$_ {NN}$$ = 2.76 TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes $$\\overline{Λn}$$ → $$\\bar{d}$$π + and H-dibaryon →Λpπ -. No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton.« less

Complexity, Heuristic, and Search Analysis for the Games of Crossings and Epaminondas

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

research in Artifical Intelligence (Section 2.1) and why games are studied (Section 2.2). Section 2.3 discusses how games are played and solved. An...5 2.1 Games in Artificial Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.2 Game Study...Artificial Intelligence UCT Upper Confidence Bounds applied to Trees HUCT Heuristic Guided UCT LOA Lines of Action UCB Upper Confidence Bound RAVE Rapid

Effects of heterogeneous convergence rate on consensus in opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Changwei; Dai, Qionglin; Han, Wenchen; Feng, Yuee; Cheng, Hongyan; Li, Haihong

2018-06-01

The Deffuant model has attracted much attention in the study of opinion dynamics. Here, we propose a modified version by introducing into the model a heterogeneous convergence rate which is dependent on the opinion difference between interacting agents and a tunable parameter κ. We study the effects of heterogeneous convergence rate on consensus by investigating the probability of complete consensus, the size of the largest opinion cluster, the number of opinion clusters, and the relaxation time. We find that the decrease of the convergence rate is favorable to decreasing the confidence threshold for the population to always reach complete consensus, and there exists optimal κ resulting in the minimal bounded confidence threshold. Moreover, we find that there exists a window before the threshold of confidence in which complete consensus may be reached with a nonzero probability when κ is not too large. We also find that, within a certain confidence range, decreasing the convergence rate will reduce the relaxation time, which is somewhat counterintuitive.

Prognostics Uncertainty Management with Application to Government and Industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose; Sankararaman, Shankar; Daigle, Matthew; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

2014-01-01

Predictions about the future are contingent on future usage, but also on the quality of the models employed and the assessment of the current health state. These factors, amongst others, need to be considered to arrive at a prediction that is conducted through a rigorous method but where the confidence bounds are not prohibitively large.

Simulation of Consensus Model of Deffuant et al. on a BARABÁSI-ALBERT Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, D.; Meyer-Ortmanns, H.

In the consensus model with bounded confidence, studied by Deffuant et al. (2000), two randomly selected people who differ not too much in their opinion both shift their opinions towards each other. Now we restrict this exchange of information to people connected by a scale-free network. As a result, the number of different final opinions (when no complete consensus is formed) is proportional to the number of people.

Improved Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization for regional infrasound

DOE PAGES

Blom, Philip S.; Marcillo, Omar; Arrowsmith, Stephen J.

2015-10-20

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization (BISL) methodology is examined and simplified providing a generalized method of estimating the source location and time for an infrasonic event and the mathematical framework is used therein. The likelihood function describing an infrasonic detection used in BISL has been redefined to include the von Mises distribution developed in directional statistics and propagation-based, physically derived celerity-range and azimuth deviation models. Frameworks for constructing propagation-based celerity-range and azimuth deviation statistics are presented to demonstrate how stochastic propagation modelling methods can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of the posterior probability density function describing themore » source localization. Infrasonic signals recorded at a number of arrays in the western United States produced by rocket motor detonations at the Utah Test and Training Range are used to demonstrate the application of the new mathematical framework and to quantify the improvement obtained by using the stochastic propagation modelling methods. Moreover, using propagation-based priors, the spatial and temporal confidence bounds of the source decreased by more than 40 per cent in all cases and by as much as 80 per cent in one case. Further, the accuracy of the estimates remained high, keeping the ground truth within the 99 per cent confidence bounds for all cases.« less

Finding Mass Constraints Through Third Neutrino Mass Eigenstate Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangolli, Nakul; de Gouvêa, André; Kelly, Kevin

2018-01-01

In this paper we aim to constrain the decay parameter for the third neutrino mass utilizing already accepted constraints on the other mixing parameters from the Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata matrix (PMNS). The main purpose of this project is to determine the parameters that will allow the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) to observe a decay parameter with some statistical significance. Another goal is to determine the parameters that JUNO could detect in the case that the third neutrino mass is lighter than the first two neutrino species. We also replicate the results that were found in the JUNO Conceptual Design Report (CDR). By utilizing Χ2-squared analysis constraints have been put on the mixing angles, mass squared differences, and the third neutrino decay parameter. These statistical tests take into account background noise and normalization corrections and thus the finalized bounds are a good approximation for the true bounds that JUNO can detect. If the decay parameter is not included in our models, the 99% confidence interval lies within The bounds 0s to 2.80x10-12s. However, if we account for a decay parameter of 3x10-5 ev2, then 99% confidence interval lies within 8.73x10-12s to 8.73x10-11s.

Neutrino Mass Bounds from 0{nu}{beta}{beta} Decays and Large Scale Structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keum, Y.-Y.; Department of Physics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 10672; Ichiki, K.

2008-05-21

We investigate the way how the total mass sum of neutrinos can be constrained from the neutrinoless double beta decay and cosmological probes with cosmic microwave background (WMAP 3-year results), large scale structures including 2dFGRS and SDSS data sets. First we discuss, in brief, on the current status of neutrino mass bounds from neutrino beta decays and cosmic constrain within the flat {lambda}CMD model. In addition, we explore the interacting neutrino dark-energy model, where the evolution of neutrino masses is determined by quintessence scalar filed, which is responsable for cosmic acceleration today. Assuming the flatness of the universe, the constraintmore » we can derive from the current observation is {sigma}m{sub {nu}}<0.87 eV at the 95% confidence level, which is consistent with {sigma}m{sub {nu}}<0.68 eV in the flat {lambda}CDM model.« less

Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.

PubMed

Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco

2016-12-07

Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.

Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine

PubMed Central

Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L.; Balleteros, Francisco

2016-01-01

Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets. PMID:27941604

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

A comparison of Probability Of Detection (POD) data determined using different statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahr, A.; Forsyth, D.; Bullock, M.

1993-12-01

Different statistical methods have been suggested for determining probability of detection (POD) data for nondestructive inspection (NDI) techniques. A comparative assessment of various methods of determining POD was conducted using results of three NDI methods obtained by inspecting actual aircraft engine compressor disks which contained service induced cracks. The study found that the POD and 95 percent confidence curves as a function of crack size as well as the 90/95 percent crack length vary depending on the statistical method used and the type of data. The distribution function as well as the parameter estimation procedure used for determining POD and the confidence bound must be included when referencing information such as the 90/95 percent crack length. The POD curves and confidence bounds determined using the range interval method are very dependent on information that is not from the inspection data. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) method does not require such information and the POD results are more reasonable. The log-logistic function appears to model POD of hit/miss data relatively well and is easy to implement. The log-normal distribution using MLE provides more realistic POD results and is the preferred method. Although it is more complicated and slower to calculate, it can be implemented on a common spreadsheet program.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

PNNL Report on the Development of Bench-scale CFD Simulations for Gas Absorption across a Wetted Wall Column

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chao; Xu, Zhijie; Lai, Canhai

This report is prepared for the demonstration of hierarchical prediction of carbon capture efficiency of a solvent-based absorption column. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is first developed to simulate the core phenomena of solvent-based carbon capture, i.e., the CO2 physical absorption and chemical reaction, on a simplified geometry of wetted wall column (WWC) at bench scale. Aqueous solutions of ethanolamine (MEA) are commonly selected as a CO2 stream scrubbing liquid. CO2 is captured by both physical and chemical absorption using highly CO2 soluble and reactive solvent, MEA, during the scrubbing process. In order to provide confidence bound on themore » computational predictions of this complex engineering system, a hierarchical calibration and validation framework is proposed. The overall goal of this effort is to provide a mechanism-based predictive framework with confidence bound for overall mass transfer coefficient of the wetted wall column (WWC) with statistical analyses of the corresponding WWC experiments with increasing physical complexity.« less

Limit on graviton mass from galaxy cluster Abell 1689

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Shantanu

2018-02-01

To date, the only limit on graviton mass using galaxy clusters was obtained by Goldhaber and Nieto in 1974, using the fact that the orbits of galaxy clusters are bound and closed, and extend up to 580 kpc. From positing that only a Newtonian potential gives rise to such stable bound orbits, a limit on the graviton mass m_g<10^{-29} eV was obtained (PRD 9,1119, 1974). Recently, it has been shown that one can obtain closed bound orbits for Yukawa potential (arXiv:1705.02444), thus invalidating the main ansatz used in Goldhaber and Nieto to obtain the graviton mass bound. In order to obtain a revised estimate using galaxy clusters, we use dynamical mass models of the Abell 1689 (A1689) galaxy cluster to check their compatibility with a Yukawa gravitational potential. We assume mass models for the gas, dark matter, and galaxies for A1689 from arXiv:1703.10219 and arXiv:1610.01543, who used this cluster to test various alternate gravity theories, which dispense with the need for dark matter. We quantify the deviations in the acceleration profile using these mass models assuming a Yukawa potential and that obtained assuming a Newtonian potential by calculating the χ^2 residuals between the two profiles. Our estimated bound on the graviton mass (m_g) is thereby given by, m_g < 1.37 × 10^{-29} eV or in terms of the graviton Compton wavelength of, λ_g>9.1 × 10^{19} km at 90% confidence level.

Search for new light gauge bosons in Higgs boson decays to four-lepton final states in p p collisions at s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2015-11-01

This research presents a search for Higgs bosons decaying to four leptons, either electrons or muons, via one or two light exotic gauge bosons Z d, H → ZZ d → 4ℓ or H → Z dZ d → 4ℓ. The search was performed using pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 20 fb –1 at the center-of-mass energy of \\(\\sqrt{s} = 8\\) TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The observed data are well described by the Standard Model prediction. Upper bounds on the branching ratio of H → ZZ d →more » 4ℓ and on the kinetic mixing parameter between the Z d and the Standard Model hypercharge gauge boson are set in the range (1-9) × 10 –5 and (4–17) × 10 -2 respectively, at 95% confidence level assuming the Standard Model branching ratio of H → ZZ* → 4ℓ, for Z d masses between 15 and 55 GeV. Upper bounds on the effective mass mixing parameter between the Z and the Z d are also set using the branching ratio limits in the H → ZZ d → 4ℓ search, and are in the range (1.5-8.7) × 10 -4 for 15 < m Zd < 35 GeV. Upper bounds on the branching ratio of H → Z dZ d → 4ℓ and on the Higgs portal coupling parameter, controlling the strength of the coupling of the Higgs boson to dark vector bosons are set in the range (2–3) × 10 -5 and (1–10) × 10 -4 respectively, at 95% confidence level assuming the Standard Model Higgs boson production cross sections, for Z d masses between 15 and 60 GeV.« less

Validation of a physically based catchment model for application in post-closure radiological safety assessments of deep geological repositories for solid radioactive wastes.

PubMed

Thorne, M C; Degnan, P; Ewen, J; Parkin, G

2000-12-01

The physically based river catchment modelling system SHETRAN incorporates components representing water flow, sediment transport and radionuclide transport both in solution and bound to sediments. The system has been applied to simulate hypothetical future catchments in the context of post-closure radiological safety assessments of a potential site for a deep geological disposal facility for intermediate and certain low-level radioactive wastes at Sellafield, west Cumbria. In order to have confidence in the application of SHETRAN for this purpose, various blind validation studies have been undertaken. In earlier studies, the validation was undertaken against uncertainty bounds in model output predictions set by the modelling team on the basis of how well they expected the model to perform. However, validation can also be carried out with bounds set on the basis of how well the model is required to perform in order to constitute a useful assessment tool. Herein, such an assessment-based validation exercise is reported. This exercise related to a field plot experiment conducted at Calder Hollow, west Cumbria, in which the migration of strontium and lanthanum in subsurface Quaternary deposits was studied on a length scale of a few metres. Blind predictions of tracer migration were compared with experimental results using bounds set by a small group of assessment experts independent of the modelling team. Overall, the SHETRAN system performed well, failing only two out of seven of the imposed tests. Furthermore, of the five tests that were not failed, three were positively passed even when a pessimistic view was taken as to how measurement errors should be taken into account. It is concluded that the SHETRAN system, which is still being developed further, is a powerful tool for application in post-closure radiological safety assessments.

Constraints on Non-flat Cosmologies with Massive Neutrinos after Planck 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yun; Ratra, Bharat; Biesiada, Marek; Li, Song; Zhu, Zong-Hong

2016-10-01

We investigate two dark energy cosmological models (I.e., the ΛCDM and ϕCDM models) with massive neutrinos assuming two different neutrino mass hierarchies in both the spatially flat and non-flat scenarios, where in the ϕCDM model the scalar field possesses an inverse power-law potential, V(ϕ) ∝ ϕ -α (α > 0). Cosmic microwave background data from Planck 2015, baryon acoustic oscillation data from 6dFGS, SDSS-MGS, BOSS-LOWZ and BOSS CMASS-DR11, the joint light-curve analysis compilation of SNe Ia apparent magnitude observations, and the Hubble Space Telescope H 0 prior, are jointly employed to constrain the model parameters. We first determine constraints assuming three species of degenerate massive neutrinos. In the spatially flat (non-flat) ΛCDM model, the sum of neutrino masses is bounded as Σm ν < 0.165(0.299) eV at 95% confidence level (CL). Correspondingly, in the flat (non-flat) ϕCDM model, we find Σm ν < 0.164(0.301) eV at 95% CL. The inclusion of spatial curvature as a free parameter results in a significant broadening of confidence regions for Σm ν and other parameters. In the scenario where the total neutrino mass is dominated by the heaviest neutrino mass eigenstate, we obtain similar conclusions to those obtained in the degenerate neutrino mass scenario. In addition, the results show that the bounds on Σm ν based on two different neutrino mass hierarchies have insignificant differences in the spatially flat case for both the ΛCDM and ϕCDM models; however, the corresponding differences are larger in the non-flat case.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yun; Ratra, Bharat; Biesiada, Marek

We investigate two dark energy cosmological models (i.e., the ΛCDM and ϕ CDM models) with massive neutrinos assuming two different neutrino mass hierarchies in both the spatially flat and non-flat scenarios, where in the ϕ CDM model the scalar field possesses an inverse power-law potential, V ( ϕ ) ∝ ϕ {sup −} {sup α} ( α > 0). Cosmic microwave background data from Planck 2015, baryon acoustic oscillation data from 6dFGS, SDSS-MGS, BOSS-LOWZ and BOSS CMASS-DR11, the joint light-curve analysis compilation of SNe Ia apparent magnitude observations, and the Hubble Space Telescope H {sub 0} prior, are jointly employedmore » to constrain the model parameters. We first determine constraints assuming three species of degenerate massive neutrinos. In the spatially flat (non-flat) ΛCDM model, the sum of neutrino masses is bounded as Σ m {sub ν} < 0.165(0.299) eV at 95% confidence level (CL). Correspondingly, in the flat (non-flat) ϕ CDM model, we find Σ m {sub ν} < 0.164(0.301) eV at 95% CL. The inclusion of spatial curvature as a free parameter results in a significant broadening of confidence regions for Σ m {sub ν} and other parameters. In the scenario where the total neutrino mass is dominated by the heaviest neutrino mass eigenstate, we obtain similar conclusions to those obtained in the degenerate neutrino mass scenario. In addition, the results show that the bounds on Σ m {sub ν} based on two different neutrino mass hierarchies have insignificant differences in the spatially flat case for both the ΛCDM and ϕ CDM models; however, the corresponding differences are larger in the non-flat case.« less

Colorado Outward Bound School Rafting Manual.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Al

River rafting trips at the Colorado Outward Bound School (COBS) present participants with an opportunity for developing self-confidence, self-awareness, and concern for others through challenging and adventuresome group effort, combined with a program of instruction in rafting skills, safety consciousness, and awareness of the natural environment.…

Search for bound states of the eta-meson in light nuclei

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chrien, R. E.; Bart, S.; Pile, P.; Sutter, R.; Tsoupas, N.; Funsten, H. O.; Finn, J. M.; Lyndon, C.; Punjabi, V.; Perdrisat, C. F.

1988-01-01

A search for nuclear-bound states of the eta meson was carried out. Targets of lithium, carbon, oxygen, and aluminum were placed in a pion(+) beam at 800 MeV/c. A predicted eta bound state in O-15* (E sub x approx. = 540 MeV) with a width of approx. 9 MeV was not observed. A bound state of a size 1/3 of the predicted cross section would have been seen in this experiment at a confidence level of 3sigma (P is greater than 0.9987).

Outward Bound...Into the Mainstream of Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Outward Bound, Inc., Andover, MA.

Outward Bound schools have instituted advanced courses designed specifically for adults engaged in education and youth work. Benefits for teachers include greater development of capacitites and potentialities, greater confidence in their abilities, and the ability to relate more effectively to others. Some of the specific training elements in an…

White dwarfs and revelations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saltas, Ippocratis D.; Sawicki, Ignacy; Lopes, Ilidio

2018-05-01

We use the most recent, complete and independent measurements of masses and radii of white dwarfs in binaries to bound the class of non-trivial modified gravity theories, viable after GW170817/GRB170817, using its effect on the mass-radius relation of the stars. We show that the uncertainty in the latest data is sufficiently small that residual evolutionary effects, most notably the effect of core composition, finite temperature and envelope structure, must now accounted for if correct conclusions about the nature of gravity are to be made. We model corrections resulting from finite temperature and envelopes to a base Hamada-Salpeter cold equation of state and derive consistent bounds on the possible modifications of gravity in the stars' interiors, finding that the parameter quantifying the strength of the modification Y< 0.14 at 95% confidence, an improvement of a factor of three with respect to previous bounds. Finally, our analysis reveals some fundamental degeneracies between the theory of gravity and the precise chemical makeup of white dwarfs.

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

First flavor-tagged determination of bounds on mixing-induced CP violation in Bs0 --> J/psiphi decays.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Adelman, J; Akimoto, T; Albrow, M G; Alvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Aoki, M; Apollinari, G; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Ashmanskas, W; Attal, A; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Azzi-Bacchetta, P; Azzurri, P; Bacchetta, N; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Baroiant, S; Bartsch, V; Bauer, G; Beauchemin, P-H; Bedeschi, F; Bednar, P; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Belloni, A; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Beringer, J; Berry, T; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Blair, R E; Blocker, C; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Boisvert, V; Bolla, G; Bolshov, A; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Bridgeman, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brubaker, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Byrum, K L; Cabrera, S; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chang, S H; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chou, J P; Choudalakis, G; Chuang, S H; Chung, K; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciobanu, C I; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clark, D; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Cooper, B; Copic, K; Cordelli, M; Cortiana, G; Crescioli, F; Cuenca Almenar, C; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Cully, J C; Dagenhart, D; Datta, M; Davies, T; de Barbaro, P; De Cecco, S; Deisher, A; De Lentdecker, G; De Lorenzo, G; Dell'Orso, M; Demortier, L; Deng, J; Deninno, M; De Pedis, D; Derwent, P F; Di Giovanni, G P; Dionisi, C; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Donini, J; Dorigo, T; Dube, S; Efron, J; Erbacher, R; Errede, D; Errede, S; Eusebi, R; Fang, H C; Farrington, S; Fedorko, W T; Feild, R G; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Ferrazza, C; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Forrester, S; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Galyardt, J; Garberson, F; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Genser, K; Gerberich, H; Gerdes, D; Giagu, S; Giakoumopolou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Gimmell, J L; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giordani, M; Giromini, P; Giunta, M; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Gresele, A; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Grundler, U; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Gunay-Unalan, Z; Haber, C; Hahn, K; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Hamilton, A; Han, B-Y; Han, J Y; Handler, R; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harper, S; Harr, R F; Harris, R M; Hartz, M; Hatakeyama, K; Hauser, J; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heijboer, A; Heinemann, B; Heinrich, J; Henderson, C; Herndon, M; Heuser, J; Hewamanage, S; Hidas, D; Hill, C S; Hirschbuehl, D; Hocker, A; Hou, S; Houlden, M; Hsu, S-C; Huffman, B T; Hughes, R E; Husemann, U; Huston, J; Incandela, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; Iyutin, B; James, E; Jayatilaka, B; Jeans, D; Jeon, E J; Jindariani, S; Johnson, W; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Jung, J E; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Kar, D; Karchin, P E; Kato, Y; Kephart, R; Kerzel, U; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kimura, N; Kirsch, L; Klimenko, S; Klute, M; Knuteson, B; Ko, B R; Koay, S A; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotwal, A V; Kraus, J; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krumnack, N; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kubo, T; Kuhlmann, S E; Kuhr, T; Kulkarni, N P; Kusakabe, Y; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Labarga, L; Lai, S; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lazzizzera, I; LeCompte, T; Lee, J; Lee, J; Lee, Y J; Lee, S W; Lefèvre, R; Leonardo, N; Leone, S; Levy, S; Lewis, J D; Lin, C; Lin, C S; Linacre, J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, C; Liu, T; Lockyer, N S; Loginov, A; Loreti, M; Lovas, L; Lu, R-S; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Luci, C; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lyons, L; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Lytken, E; Mack, P; MacQueen, D; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Makhoul, K; Maki, T; Maksimovic, P; Malde, S; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Marino, C P; Martin, A; Martin, M; Martin, V; Martínez, M; Martínez-Ballarín, R; Maruyama, T; Mastrandrea, P; Masubuchi, T; Mattson, M E; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Menzemer, S; Menzione, A; Merkel, P; Mesropian, C; Messina, A; Miao, T; Miladinovic, N; Miles, J; Miller, R; Mills, C; Milnik, M; Mitra, A; Mitselmakher, G; Miyake, H; Moed, S; Moggi, N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M; Movilla Fernandez, P; Mülmenstädt, J; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Mumford, R; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Nagano, A; Naganoma, J; Nakamura, K; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Necula, V; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Norman, M; Norniella, O; Nurse, E; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Oldeman, R; Orava, R; Osterberg, K; Pagan Griso, S; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Papaikonomou, A; Paramonov, A A; Parks, B; Pashapour, S; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Piedra, J; Pinera, L; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Portell, X; Poukhov, O; Pounder, N; Prakoshyn, F; Pronko, A; Proudfoot, J; Ptohos, F; Punzi, G; Pursley, J; Rademacker, J; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Reisert, B; Rekovic, V; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Richter, S; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Rossi, M; Rossin, R; Roy, P; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Saarikko, H; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Salamanna, G; Saltó, O; Santi, L; Sarkar, S; Sartori, L; Sato, K; Savoy-Navarro, A; Scheidle, T; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, E E; Schmidt, M A; Schmidt, M P; Schmitt, M; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scott, A L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Sedov, A; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sexton-Kennedy, L; Sfyrla, A; Shalhout, S Z; Shapiro, M D; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Sherman, D; Shimojima, M; Shochet, M; Shon, Y; Shreyber, I; Sidoti, A; Sinervo, P; Sisakyan, A; Slaughter, A J; Slaunwhite, J; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Snihur, R; Soderberg, M; Soha, A; Somalwar, S; Sorin, V; Spalding, J; Spinella, F; Spreitzer, T; Squillacioti, P; Stanitzki, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Stuart, D; Suh, J S; Sukhanov, A; Sun, H; Suslov, I; Suzuki, T; Taffard, A; Takashima, R; Takeuchi, Y; Tanaka, R; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Terashi, K; Thom, J; Thompson, A S; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Tipton, P; Tiwari, V; Tkaczyk, S; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Tourneur, S; Trischuk, W; Tu, Y; Turini, N; Ukegawa, F; Uozumi, S; Vallecorsa, S; van Remortel, N; Varganov, A; Vataga, E; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Veszpremi, V; Vidal, M; Vidal, R; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vine, T; Vogel, M; Volobouev, I; Volpi, G; Würthwein, F; Wagner, P; Wagner, R G; Wagner, R L; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Wagner, W; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Weinberger, M; Wester, W C; Whitehouse, B; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Williams, G; Williams, H H; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, C; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wynne, S M; Yagil, A; Yamamoto, K; Yamaoka, J; Yamashita, T; Yang, C; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W M; Yeh, G P; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanello, L; Zanetti, A; Zaw, I; Zhang, X; Zheng, Y; Zucchelli, S

2008-04-25

This Letter describes the first determination of bounds on the CP-violation parameter 2beta(s) using B(s)(0) decays in which the flavor of the bottom meson at production is identified. The result is based on approximately 2000 B(s)(0)-->J/psiphi decays reconstructed in a 1.35 fb(-1) data sample collected with the CDF II detector using pp collisions produced at the Fermilab Tevatron. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of 2beta(s) and the decay-width difference DeltaGamma. Assuming the standard model predictions of 2beta(s) and DeltaGamma, the probability of a deviation as large as the level of the observed data is 15%, corresponding to 1.5 Gaussian standard deviations.

An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, J.S.; Chen, J.J.

1999-12-01

The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on anmore » underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. IN this paper the authors evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some of all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.« less

Connections between the Sznajd model with general confidence rules and graph theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timpanaro, André M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

2012-10-01

The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is used to model opinion propagation and consensus formation in societies. Its main feature is that its rules favor bigger groups of agreeing people. In a previous work, we generalized the bounded confidence rule in order to model biases and prejudices in discrete opinion models. In that work, we applied this modification to the Sznajd model and presented some preliminary results. The present work extends what we did in that paper. We present results linking many of the properties of the mean-field fixed points, with only a few qualitative aspects of the confidence rule (the biases and prejudices modeled), finding an interesting connection with graph theory problems. More precisely, we link the existence of fixed points with the notion of strongly connected graphs and the stability of fixed points with the problem of finding the maximal independent sets of a graph. We state these results and present comparisons between the mean field and simulations in Barabási-Albert networks, followed by the main mathematical ideas and appendices with the rigorous proofs of our claims and some graph theory concepts, together with examples. We also show that there is no qualitative difference in the mean-field results if we require that a group of size q>2, instead of a pair, of agreeing agents be formed before they attempt to convince other sites (for the mean field, this would coincide with the q-voter model).

Mode-of-Action Uncertainty for Dual-Mode Carcinogens:Lower Bounds for Naphthalene-Induced Nasal Tumors in Rats Implied byPBPK and 2-Stage Stochastic Cancer Risk Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogen, K T

2007-01-30

As reflected in the 2005 USEPA Guidelines for Cancer Risk Assessment, some chemical carcinogens may have a site-specific mode of action (MOA) that is dual, involving mutation in addition to cell-killing induced hyperplasia. Although genotoxicity may contribute to increased risk at all doses, the Guidelines imply that for dual MOA (DMOA) carcinogens, judgment be used to compare and assess results obtained using separate ''linear'' (genotoxic) vs. ''nonlinear'' (nongenotoxic) approaches to low-level risk extrapolation. However, the Guidelines allow the latter approach to be used only when evidence is sufficient to parameterize a biologically based model that reliably extrapolates risk to lowmore » levels of concern. The Guidelines thus effectively prevent MOA uncertainty from being characterized and addressed when data are insufficient to parameterize such a model, but otherwise clearly support a DMOA. A bounding factor approach--similar to that used in reference dose procedures for classic toxicity endpoints--can address MOA uncertainty in a way that avoids explicit modeling of low-dose risk as a function of administered or internal dose. Even when a ''nonlinear'' toxicokinetic model cannot be fully validated, implications of DMOA uncertainty on low-dose risk may be bounded with reasonable confidence when target tumor types happen to be extremely rare. This concept was illustrated for the rodent carcinogen naphthalene. Bioassay data, supplemental toxicokinetic data, and related physiologically based pharmacokinetic and 2-stage stochastic carcinogenesis modeling results all clearly indicate that naphthalene is a DMOA carcinogen. Plausibility bounds on rat-tumor-type specific DMOA-related uncertainty were obtained using a 2-stage model adapted to reflect the empirical link between genotoxic and cytotoxic effects of the most potent identified genotoxic naphthalene metabolites, 1,2- and 1,4-naphthoquinone. Resulting bounds each provided the basis for a corresponding ''uncertainty'' factor <1 appropriate to apply to estimates of naphthalene risk obtained by linear extrapolation under a default genotoxic MOA assumption. This procedure is proposed as scientifically credible method to address MOA uncertainty for DMOA carcinogens.« less

THE COOL ACCRETION DISK IN ESO 243-49 HLX-1: FURTHER EVIDENCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE-MASS BLACK HOLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Shane W.; Narayan, Ramesh; Zhu Yucong

2011-06-20

With an inferred bolometric luminosity exceeding 10{sup 42} erg s{sup -1}, HLX-1 in ESO 243-49 is the most luminous of ultraluminous X-ray sources and provides one of the strongest cases for the existence of intermediate-mass black holes. We obtain good fits to disk-dominated observations of the source with BHSPEC, a fully relativistic black hole accretion disk spectral model. Due to degeneracies in the model arising from the lack of independent constraints on inclination and black hole spin, there is a factor of 100 uncertainty in the best-fit black hole mass M. Nevertheless, spectral fitting of XMM-Newton observations provides robust lowermore » and upper limits with 3000 M{sub sun} {approx}< M {approx}< 3 x 10{sup 5} M{sub sun}, at 90% confidence, placing HLX-1 firmly in the intermediate-mass regime. The lower bound on M is entirely determined by matching the shape and peak energy of the thermal component in the spectrum. This bound is consistent with (but independent of) arguments based solely on the Eddington limit. Joint spectral modeling of the XMM-Newton data with more luminous Swift and Chandra observations increases the lower bound to 6000 M{sub sun}, but this tighter constraint is not independent of the Eddington limit. The upper bound on M is sensitive to the maximum allowed inclination i, and is reduced to M {approx}< 10{sup 5} M{sub sun} if we limit i {approx}< 75{sup 0}.« less

Integration of Enhanced Propagation, Environmental Variability, and Network Performance Models into the InfraMAP Software Toolkit

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

distribution is unlimited. Z November 2007 Li DTRA01-00-C-0063 David Norris and Robert Gibson Prepared by: BBN Technologies 1300 North 17th Street Suite...TA - CD C.AUT040WS WU - 02091 David E. Norris Robert G. Gibson 7. PERVORMS ONSAIZATIMN RAW(S) AM AURS118" L PIRU OANIZATMO ASPORT...be useful in determining the relative importance with which to treat the predictions. Support of synergy-based localization - Confidence bounds

Robust visual object tracking with interleaved segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, Peter; Kieritz, Hilke; Becker, Stefan; Arens, Michael

2017-10-01

In this paper we present a new approach for tracking non-rigid, deformable objects by means of merging an on-line boosting-based tracker and a fast foreground background segmentation. We extend an on-line boosting- based tracker, which uses axes-aligned bounding boxes with fixed aspect-ratio as tracking states. By constructing a confidence map from the on-line boosting-based tracker and unifying this map with a confidence map, which is obtained from a foreground background segmentation algorithm, we build a superior confidence map. For constructing a rough confidence map of a new frame based on on-line boosting, we employ the responses of the strong classifier as well as the single weak classifier responses that were built before during the updating step. This confidence map provides a rough estimation of the object's position and dimension. In order to refine this confidence map, we build a fine, pixel-wisely segmented confidence map and merge both maps together. Our segmentation method is color-histogram-based and provides a fine and fast image segmentation. By means of back-projection and the Bayes' rule, we obtain a confidence value for every pixel. The rough and the fine confidence maps are merged together by building an adaptively weighted sum of both maps. The weights are obtained by utilizing the variances of both confidence maps. Further, we apply morphological operators in the merged confidence map in order to reduce the noise. In the resulting map we estimate the object localization and dimension via continuous adaptive mean shift. Our approach provides a rotated rectangle as tracking states, which enables a more precise description of non-rigid, deformable objects than axes-aligned bounding boxes. We evaluate our tracker on the visual object tracking (VOT) benchmark dataset 2016.

Search for invisible decays of a Higgs boson using vector-boson fusion in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.

2016-01-28

A search for a Higgs boson produced via vector-boson fusion and decaying into invisible particles is presented, using 20.3 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. For a Higgs boson with a mass of 125 GeV, assuming the Standard Model production cross section, an upper bound of 0.28 is set on the branching fraction of H → invisible at 95% confidence level, where the expected upper limit is 0.31. Furthermore, the results are interpreted in models of Higgs-portal dark matter where the branching fraction limit ismore » converted into upper bounds on the dark-matter-nucleon scattering cross section as a function of the dark-matter particle mass, and compared to results from the direct dark-matter detection experiments.« less

Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas.

PubMed

Askitas, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

An empirically founded and widely established driving force in opinion dynamics is homophily i.e. the tendency of "birds of a feather" to "flock together". The closer our opinions are the more likely it is that we will interact and converge. Models using these assumptions are called bounded confidence models (BCM) as they assume a tolerance threshold after which interaction is unlikely. They are known to produce one or more clusters, depending on the size of the bound, with more than one cluster being possible only in the deterministic case. Introducing noise, as is likely to happen in a stochastic world, causes BCM to produce consensus which leaves us with the open problem of explaining the emergence and sustainance of opinion clusters and polarisation. We investigate the role of heterogeneous priors in opinion formation, introduce the concept of opinion copulas, argue that it is well supported by findings in Social Psychology and use it to show that the stochastic BCM does indeed produce opinion clustering without the need for extra assumptions.

Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

An empirically founded and widely established driving force in opinion dynamics is homophily i.e. the tendency of “birds of a feather” to “flock together”. The closer our opinions are the more likely it is that we will interact and converge. Models using these assumptions are called bounded confidence models (BCM) as they assume a tolerance threshold after which interaction is unlikely. They are known to produce one or more clusters, depending on the size of the bound, with more than one cluster being possible only in the deterministic case. Introducing noise, as is likely to happen in a stochastic world, causes BCM to produce consensus which leaves us with the open problem of explaining the emergence and sustainance of opinion clusters and polarisation. We investigate the role of heterogeneous priors in opinion formation, introduce the concept of opinion copulas, argue that it is well supported by findings in Social Psychology and use it to show that the stochastic BCM does indeed produce opinion clustering without the need for extra assumptions. PMID:28829802

Estimation of uncertainty bounds for individual particle image velocimetry measurements from cross-correlation peak ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charonko, John J.; Vlachos, Pavlos P.

2013-06-01

Numerous studies have established firmly that particle image velocimetry (PIV) is a robust method for non-invasive, quantitative measurements of fluid velocity, and that when carefully conducted, typical measurements can accurately detect displacements in digital images with a resolution well below a single pixel (in some cases well below a hundredth of a pixel). However, to date, these estimates have only been able to provide guidance on the expected error for an average measurement under specific image quality and flow conditions. This paper demonstrates a new method for estimating the uncertainty bounds to within a given confidence interval for a specific, individual measurement. Here, cross-correlation peak ratio, the ratio of primary to secondary peak height, is shown to correlate strongly with the range of observed error values for a given measurement, regardless of flow condition or image quality. This relationship is significantly stronger for phase-only generalized cross-correlation PIV processing, while the standard correlation approach showed weaker performance. Using an analytical model of the relationship derived from synthetic data sets, the uncertainty bounds at a 95% confidence interval are then computed for several artificial and experimental flow fields, and the resulting errors are shown to match closely to the predicted uncertainties. While this method stops short of being able to predict the true error for a given measurement, knowledge of the uncertainty level for a PIV experiment should provide great benefits when applying the results of PIV analysis to engineering design studies and computational fluid dynamics validation efforts. Moreover, this approach is exceptionally simple to implement and requires negligible additional computational cost.

Another look at confidence intervals: Proposal for a more relevant and transparent approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biller, Steven D.; Oser, Scott M.

2015-02-01

The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low event numbers where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters, and common misconceptions associated with such constructions. An informal survey of the literature suggests that confidence intervals are not always defined in relevant ways and are too often misinterpreted and/or misapplied. This can lead to seemingly paradoxical behaviors and flawed comparisons regarding the relevance of experimental results. We therefore conclude that there is a need for a more pragmatic strategy which recognizes that, while it is critical to objectively convey the information content of the data, there is also a strong desire to derive bounds on model parameter values and a natural instinct to interpret things this way. Accordingly, we attempt to put aside philosophical biases in favor of a practical view to propose a more transparent and self-consistent approach that better addresses these issues.

Clopper-Pearson bounds from HEP data cuts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, B. A.

2001-08-01

For the measurement of Ns signals in N events rigorous confidence bounds on the true signal probability pexact were established in a classical paper by Clopper and Pearson [Biometrica 26, 404 (1934)]. Here, their bounds are generalized to the HEP situation where cuts on the data tag signals with probability Ps and background data with likelihood Pb

Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green

2002-01-01

Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...

Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

Efficient bootstrap estimates for tail statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan

2017-03-01

Bootstrap resamples can be used to investigate the tail of empirical distributions as well as return value estimates from the extremal behaviour of the sample. Specifically, the confidence intervals on return value estimates or bounds on in-sample tail statistics can be obtained using bootstrap techniques. However, non-parametric bootstrapping from the entire sample is expensive. It is shown here that it suffices to bootstrap from a small subset consisting of the highest entries in the sequence to make estimates that are essentially identical to bootstraps from the entire sample. Similarly, bootstrap estimates of confidence intervals of threshold return estimates are found to be well approximated by using a subset consisting of the highest entries. This has practical consequences in fields such as meteorology, oceanography and hydrology where return values are calculated from very large gridded model integrations spanning decades at high temporal resolution or from large ensembles of independent and identically distributed model fields. In such cases the computational savings are substantial.

A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence.

PubMed

van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

2016-02-01

Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.

1987-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Burnside, O. H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Polch, E. Z.; Dias, J. B.

1988-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

The Extrapolation of Elementary Sequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laird, Philip; Saul, Ronald

1992-01-01

We study sequence extrapolation as a stream-learning problem. Input examples are a stream of data elements of the same type (integers, strings, etc.), and the problem is to construct a hypothesis that both explains the observed sequence of examples and extrapolates the rest of the stream. A primary objective -- and one that distinguishes this work from previous extrapolation algorithms -- is that the same algorithm be able to extrapolate sequences over a variety of different types, including integers, strings, and trees. We define a generous family of constructive data types, and define as our learning bias a stream language called elementary stream descriptions. We then give an algorithm that extrapolates elementary descriptions over constructive datatypes and prove that it learns correctly. For freely-generated types, we prove a polynomial time bound on descriptions of bounded complexity. An especially interesting feature of this work is the ability to provide quantitative measures of confidence in competing hypotheses, using a Bayesian model of prediction.

Search for Dark Matter in Events with One Jet and Missing Transverse Energy in pp̄ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

DOE PAGES

Aaltonen, T.; Álvarez González, B.; Amerio, S.; ...

2012-05-23

We present the results of a search for dark matter production in the monojet signature. We analyze a sample of Tevatron pp̄ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 6.7 fb⁻¹ recorded by the CDF II detector. In events with large missing transverse energy and one energetic jet, we find good agreement between the standard model prediction and the observed data. We set 90% confidence level upper limits on the dark matter production rate. The limits are translated into bounds on nucleon-dark matter scattering rates which are competitive with current direct detection bounds on spin-independent interaction belowmore » a dark matter candidate mass of 5 GeV/c², and on spin-dependent interactions up to masses of 200 GeV/c².« less

Search for dark matter in events with one jet and missing transverse energy in pp¯ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Alvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Appel, J A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Asaadi, J; Ashmanskas, W; Auerbach, B; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Badgett, W; Bae, T; Bai, Y; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Barria, P; Bartos, P; Bauce, M; Bedeschi, F; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Bhatti, A; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Bland, K R; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brucken, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Calamba, A; Calancha, C; Camarda, S; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Carls, B; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clarke, C; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Corbo, M; Cordelli, M; Cox, C A; Cox, D J; Crescioli, F; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Dagenhart, D; d'Ascenzo, N; Datta, M; de Barbaro, P; Dell'Orso, M; Demortier, L; Deninno, M; Devoto, F; d'Errico, M; Di Canto, A; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Dorigo, M; Dorigo, T; Ebina, K; Elagin, A; Eppig, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, S; Ershaidat, N; Eusebi, R; Farrington, S; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Fox, P J; Frank, M J; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Funakoshi, Y; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Garosi, P; Gerberich, H; Gerchtein, E; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giromini, P; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldin, D; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Group, R C; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Hamaguchi, A; Han, J Y; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harnik, R; Harr, R F; Hatakeyama, K; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heinrich, J; Herndon, M; Hewamanage, S; Hocker, A; Hopkins, W; Horn, D; Hou, S; Hughes, R E; Hurwitz, M; Husemann, U; Hussain, N; Hussein, M; Huston, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; James, E; Jang, D; Jayatilaka, B; Jeon, E J; Jindariani, S; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Karchin, P E; Kasmi, A; Kato, Y; Ketchum, W; Keung, J; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kim, Y J; Kimura, N; Kirby, M; Klimenko, S; Knoepfel, K; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Kotwal, A V; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krop, D; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kuhr, T; Kurata, M; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lecompte, T; Lee, E; Lee, H S; Lee, J S; Lee, S W; Leo, S; Leone, S; Lewis, J D; Limosani, A; Lin, C-J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, C; Liu, H; Liu, Q; Liu, T; Lockwitz, S; Loginov, A; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Maestro, P; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Martínez, M; Mastrandrea, P; Matera, K; Mattson, M E; Mazzacane, A; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Mesropian, C; Miao, T; Mietlicki, D; Mitra, A; Miyake, H; Moed, S; Moggi, N; Mondragon, M N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M J; Morlock, J; Movilla Fernandez, P; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Naganoma, J; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Nett, J; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Noh, S Y; Norniella, O; Oakes, L; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Orava, R; Ortolan, L; Pagan Griso, S; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Paramonov, A A; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Pianori, E; Pilot, J; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Poprocki, S; Potamianos, K; Prokoshin, F; Pranko, A; Ptohos, F; Punzi, G; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Riddick, T; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rodriguez, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Ruffini, F; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Sakurai, Y; Santi, L; Sato, K; Saveliev, V; Savoy-Navarro, A; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, A; Schmidt, E E; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sforza, F; Shalhout, S Z; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Shimojima, M; Shochet, M; Shreyber-Tecker, I; Simonenko, A; Sinervo, P; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Soha, A; Sorin, V; Song, H; Squillacioti, P; Stancari, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Strycker, G L; Sudo, Y; Sukhanov, A; Suslov, I; Takemasa, K; Takeuchi, Y; Tang, J; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Thom, J; Thome, J; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Totaro, P; Trovato, M; Ukegawa, F; Uozumi, S; Varganov, A; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Vidal, M; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vizán, J; Vogel, M; Volpi, G; Wagner, P; Wagner, R L; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Wester, W C; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Wilbur, S; Wick, F; Williams, H H; Wilson, J S; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, H; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wu, Z; Yamamoto, K; Yamato, D; Yang, T; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W-M; Yeh, G P; Yi, K; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanetti, A; Zeng, Y; Zhou, C; Zucchelli, S

2012-05-25

We present the results of a search for dark matter production in the monojet signature. We analyze a sample of Tevatron pp[over ¯] collisions at √s=1.96 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 6.7 fb(-1) recorded by the CDF II detector. In events with large missing transverse energy and one energetic jet, we find good agreement between the standard model prediction and the observed data. We set 90% confidence level upper limits on the dark matter production rate. The limits are translated into bounds on nucleon-dark matter scattering rates which are competitive with current direct detection bounds on spin-independent interaction below a dark matter candidate mass of 5 GeV/c(2), and on spin-dependent interactions up to masses of 200 GeV/c(2).

Estimating the diversity of dinosaurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Steve C.; Dodson, Peter

2006-09-01

Despite current interest in estimating the diversity of fossil and extant groups, little effort has been devoted to estimating the diversity of dinosaurs. Here we estimate the diversity of nonavian dinosaurs at ≈1,850 genera, including those that remain to be discovered. With 527 genera currently described, at least 71% of dinosaur genera thus remain unknown. Although known diversity declined in the last stage of the Cretaceous, estimated diversity was steady, suggesting that dinosaurs as a whole were not in decline in the 10 million years before their ultimate extinction. We also show that known diversity is biased by the availability of fossiliferous rock outcrop. Finally, by using a logistic model, we predict that 75% of discoverable genera will be known within 60-100 years and 90% within 100-140 years. Because of nonrandom factors affecting the process of fossil discovery (which preclude the possibility of computing realistic confidence bounds), our estimate of diversity is likely to be a lower bound.

Robust Bayesian clustering.

PubMed

Archambeau, Cédric; Verleysen, Michel

2007-01-01

A new variational Bayesian learning algorithm for Student-t mixture models is introduced. This algorithm leads to (i) robust density estimation, (ii) robust clustering and (iii) robust automatic model selection. Gaussian mixture models are learning machines which are based on a divide-and-conquer approach. They are commonly used for density estimation and clustering tasks, but are sensitive to outliers. The Student-t distribution has heavier tails than the Gaussian distribution and is therefore less sensitive to any departure of the empirical distribution from Gaussianity. As a consequence, the Student-t distribution is suitable for constructing robust mixture models. In this work, we formalize the Bayesian Student-t mixture model as a latent variable model in a different way from Svensén and Bishop [Svensén, M., & Bishop, C. M. (2005). Robust Bayesian mixture modelling. Neurocomputing, 64, 235-252]. The main difference resides in the fact that it is not necessary to assume a factorized approximation of the posterior distribution on the latent indicator variables and the latent scale variables in order to obtain a tractable solution. Not neglecting the correlations between these unobserved random variables leads to a Bayesian model having an increased robustness. Furthermore, it is expected that the lower bound on the log-evidence is tighter. Based on this bound, the model complexity, i.e. the number of components in the mixture, can be inferred with a higher confidence.

Lymphatic Mapping and Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Women With Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Vulva: A Gynecologic Oncology Group Study

PubMed Central

Levenback, Charles F.; Ali, Shamshad; Coleman, Robert L.; Gold, Michael A.; Fowler, Jeffrey M.; Judson, Patricia L.; Bell, Maria C.; De Geest, Koen; Spirtos, Nick M.; Potkul, Ronald K.; Leitao, Mario M.; Bakkum-Gamez, Jamie N.; Rossi, Emma C.; Lentz, Samuel S.; Burke, James J.; Van Le, Linda; Trimble, Cornelia L.

2012-01-01

Purpose To determine the safety of sentinel lymph node biopsy as a replacement for inguinal femoral lymphadenectomy in selected women with vulvar cancer. Patients and Methods Eligible women had squamous cell carcinoma, at least 1-mm invasion, and tumor size ≥ 2 cm and ≤ 6 cm. The primary tumor was limited to the vulva, and there were no groin lymph nodes that were clinically suggestive of cancer. All women underwent intraoperative lymphatic mapping, sentinel lymph node biopsy, and inguinal femoral lymphadenectomy. Histologic ultra staging of the sentinel lymph node was prescribed. Results In all, 452 women underwent the planned procedures, and 418 had at least one sentinel lymph node identified. There were 132 node-positive women, including 11 (8.3%) with false-negative nodes. Twenty-three percent of the true-positive patients were detected by immunohistochemical analysis of the sentinel lymph node. The sensitivity was 91.7% (90% lower confidence bound, 86.7%) and the false-negative predictive value (1-negative predictive value) was 3.7% (90% upper confidence bound, 6.1%). In women with tumor less than 4 cm, the false-negative predictive value was 2.0% (90% upper confidence bound, 4.5%). Conclusion Sentinel lymph node biopsy is a reasonable alternative to inguinal femoral lymphadenectomy in selected women with squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva. PMID:22753905

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogen, K T

A relatively simple, quantitative approach is proposed to address a specific, important gap in the appr approach recommended by the USEPA Guidelines for Cancer Risk Assessment to oach address uncertainty in carcinogenic mode of action of certain chemicals when risk is extrapolated from bioassay data. These Guidelines recognize that some chemical carcinogens may have a site-specific mode of action (MOA) that is dual, involving mutation in addition to cell-killing induced hyperplasia. Although genotoxicity may contribute to increased risk at all doses, the Guidelines imply that for dual MOA (DMOA) carcinogens, judgment be used to compare and assess results obtained usingmore » separate 'linear' (genotoxic) vs. 'nonlinear' (nongenotoxic) approaches to low low-level risk extrapolation. However, the Guidelines allow the latter approach to be used only when evidence is sufficient t to parameterize a biologically based model that reliably o extrapolates risk to low levels of concern. The Guidelines thus effectively prevent MOA uncertainty from being characterized and addressed when data are insufficient to parameterize such a model, but otherwise clearly support a DMOA. A bounding factor approach - similar to that used in reference dose procedures for classic toxicity endpoints - can address MOA uncertainty in a way that avoids explicit modeling of low low-dose risk as a function of administere administered or internal dose. Even when a 'nonlinear' toxicokinetic model cannot be fully validated, implications of DMOA uncertainty on low low-dose risk may be bounded with reasonable confidence when target tumor types happen to be extremely rare. This concept was i illustrated llustrated for a likely DMOA rodent carcinogen naphthalene, specifically to the issue of risk extrapolation from bioassay data on naphthalene naphthalene-induced nasal tumors in rats. Bioassay data, supplemental toxicokinetic data, and related physiologically based p pharmacokinetic and 2 harmacokinetic 2-stage stochastic carcinogenesis modeling results all clearly indicate that naphthalene is a DMOA carcinogen. Plausibility bounds on rat rat-tumor tumor-type specific DMOA DMOA-related uncertainty were obtained using a 2-stage model adapted to reflec reflect the empirical link between genotoxic and cytotoxic effects of t the most potent identified genotoxic naphthalene metabolites, 1,2 1,2- and 1,4 1,4-naphthoquinone. Bound Bound-specific 'adjustment' factors were then used to reduce naphthalene risk estimated by linear ex extrapolation (under the default genotoxic MOA assumption), to account for the DMOA trapolation exhibited by this compound.« less

Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

2018-06-01

A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to effective proactive management of extreme phenomena. The impacts of the findings on the predictability of the extreme daily mean areal temperature patterns are also commented.

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by one order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2014-03-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain non-parametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21 with lower 95% confidence bounds > 13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than one order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by 1 order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2015-01-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic, and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain nonparametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21, with lower 95% confidence bounds >13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than 1 order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

2016-01-01

Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12192.001 PMID:26829590

Updated Magmatic Flux Rate Estimates for the Hawaii Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessel, P.

2013-12-01

Several studies have estimated the magmatic flux rate along the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain using a variety of methods and arriving at different results. These flux rate estimates have weaknesses because of incomplete data sets and different modeling assumptions, especially for the youngest portion of the chain (<3 Ma). While they generally agree on the 1st order features, there is less agreement on the magnitude and relative size of secondary flux variations. Some of these differences arise from the use of different methodologies, but the significance of this variability is difficult to assess due to a lack of confidence bounds on the estimates obtained with these disparate methods. All methods introduce some error, but to date there has been little or no quantification of error estimates for the inferred melt flux, making an assessment problematic. Here we re-evaluate the melt flux for the Hawaii plume with the latest gridded data sets (SRTM30+ and FAA 21.1) using several methods, including the optimal robust separator (ORS) and directional median filtering techniques (DiM). We also compute realistic confidence limits on the results. In particular, the DiM technique was specifically developed to aid in the estimation of surface loads that are superimposed on wider bathymetric swells and it provides error estimates on the optimal residuals. Confidence bounds are assigned separately for the estimated surface load (obtained from the ORS regional/residual separation techniques) and the inferred subsurface volume (from gravity-constrained isostasy and plate flexure optimizations). These new and robust estimates will allow us to assess which secondary features in the resulting melt flux curve are significant and should be incorporated when correlating melt flux variations with other geophysical and geochemical observations.

Bounds on graviton mass using weak lensing and SZ effect in galaxy clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Akshay; Jain, Deepak; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha

2018-06-01

In General Relativity (GR), the graviton is massless. However, a common feature in several theoretical alternatives of GR is a non-zero mass for the graviton. These theories can be described as massive gravity theories. Despite many theoretical complexities in these theories, on phenomenological grounds the implications of massive gravity have been widely used to put bounds on graviton mass. One of the generic implications of giving a mass to the graviton is that the gravitational potential will follow a Yukawa-like fall off. We use this feature of massive gravity theories to probe the mass of graviton by using the largest gravitationally bound objects, namely galaxy clusters. In this work, we use the mass estimates of galaxy clusters measured at various cosmologically defined radial distances measured via weak lensing (WL) and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect. We also use the model independent values of Hubble parameter H (z) smoothed by a non-parametric method, Gaussian process. Within 1σ confidence region, we obtain the mass of graviton mg < 5.9 ×10-30 eV with the corresponding Compton length scale λg > 6.82 Mpc from weak lensing and mg < 8.31 ×10-30 eV with λg > 5.012 Mpc from SZ effect. This analysis improves the upper bound on graviton mass obtained earlier from galaxy clusters.

The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J

2013-01-01

This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behavior. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimizing free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action-constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualizes optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian) formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution-that minimizes free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behavior, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behavior entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control.

Identifying Minefields and Verifying Clearance: Adapting Statistical Methods for UXO Target Detection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilbert, Richard O.; O'Brien, Robert F.; Wilson, John E.

2003-09-01

It may not be feasible to completely survey large tracts of land suspected of containing minefields. It is desirable to develop a characterization protocol that will confidently identify minefields within these large land tracts if they exist. Naturally, surveying areas of greatest concern and most likely locations would be necessary but will not provide the needed confidence that an unknown minefield had not eluded detection. Once minefields are detected, methods are needed to bound the area that will require detailed mine detection surveys. The US Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) is sponsoring the development ofmore » statistical survey methods and tools for detecting potential UXO targets. These methods may be directly applicable to demining efforts. Statistical methods are employed to determine the optimal geophysical survey transect spacing to have confidence of detecting target areas of a critical size, shape, and anomaly density. Other methods under development determine the proportion of a land area that must be surveyed to confidently conclude that there are no UXO present. Adaptive sampling schemes are also being developed as an approach for bounding the target areas. These methods and tools will be presented and the status of relevant research in this area will be discussed.« less

Extremism without extremists: Deffuant model with emotions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2015-03-01

The frequent occurrence of extremist views in many social contexts, often growing from small minorities to almost total majority, poses a significant challenge for democratic societies. The phenomenon can be described within the sociophysical paradigm. We present a modified version of the continuous bounded confidence opinion model, including a simple description of the influence of emotions on tolerances, and eventually on the evolution of opinions. Allowing for psychologically based correlation between the extreme opinions, high emotions and low tolerance for other people's views leads to quick dominance of the extreme views within the studied model, without introducing a special class of agents, as has been done in previous works. This dominance occurs even if the initial numbers of people with extreme opinions is very small. Possible suggestions related to mitigation of the process are briefly discussed.

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E.; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

Metrics for TRUST in Integrated Circuits

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

metrics; Trojan ; detection Introduction In the Defense Science Board report, “DSB Task Force on High Performance Microchip Supply” [1] several...BETAINV C m M m= − + − + Where Ptd | lower is a lower bound on Ptd with confidence C, m is the number of detected Trojan transistors, and M is the...total number of Trojan transistors. From this relationship, in order to establish Ptd = 90% at 90% confidence on a single test article, we must

Chained Bell Inequality Experiment with High-Efficiency Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, T. R.; Wan, Y.; Erickson, S.; Bierhorst, P.; Kienzler, D.; Glancy, S.; Knill, E.; Leibfried, D.; Wineland, D. J.

2017-03-01

We report correlation measurements on two 9Be+ ions that violate a chained Bell inequality obeyed by any local-realistic theory. The correlations can be modeled as derived from a mixture of a local-realistic probabilistic distribution and a distribution that violates the inequality. A statistical framework is formulated to quantify the local-realistic fraction allowable in the observed distribution without the fair-sampling or independent-and-identical-distributions assumptions. We exclude models of our experiment whose local-realistic fraction is above 0.327 at the 95% confidence level. This bound is significantly lower than 0.586, the minimum fraction derived from a perfect Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality experiment. Furthermore, our data provide a device-independent certification of the deterministically created Bell states.

Search for new resonances decaying via WZ to leptons in proton–proton collisions at $$\\sqrt s =$$ 8 TeV

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, V.

2014-11-18

A search is performed in proton–proton collisions at √s=8 TeV for exotic particles decaying via WZ to fully leptonic final states with electrons, muons, and neutrinos. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 19.5 fb -1. No significant excess is observed above the expected standard model background. Upper bounds at 95% confidence level are set on the production cross section of a W' boson as predicted by an extended gauge model, and on the W'WZ coupling. The expected and observed mass limits for a W' boson, as predicted by this model, are 1.55 and 1.47 TeV, respectively. Stringentmore » limits are also set in the context of low-scale technicolor models under a range of assumptions for the model parameters.« less

Cultural Consensus Theory: Aggregating Continuous Responses in a Finite Interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batchelder, William H.; Strashny, Alex; Romney, A. Kimball

Cultural consensus theory (CCT) consists of cognitive models for aggregating responses of "informants" to test items about some domain of their shared cultural knowledge. This paper develops a CCT model for items requiring bounded numerical responses, e.g. probability estimates, confidence judgments, or similarity judgments. The model assumes that each item generates a latent random representation in each informant, with mean equal to the consensus answer and variance depending jointly on the informant and the location of the consensus answer. The manifest responses may reflect biases of the informants. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were used to estimate the model, and simulation studies validated the approach. The model was applied to an existing cross-cultural dataset involving native Japanese and English speakers judging the similarity of emotion terms. The results sharpened earlier studies that showed that both cultures appear to have very similar cognitive representations of emotion terms.

Model-independent and model-based local lensing properties of CL0024+1654 from multiply imaged galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Jenny; Liesenborgs, Jori; Tessore, Nicolas

2018-04-01

Context. Local gravitational lensing properties, such as convergence and shear, determined at the positions of multiply imaged background objects, yield valuable information on the smaller-scale lensing matter distribution in the central part of galaxy clusters. Highly distorted multiple images with resolved brightness features like the ones observed in CL0024 allow us to study these local lensing properties and to tighten the constraints on the properties of dark matter on sub-cluster scale. Aim. We investigate to what precision local magnification ratios, J, ratios of convergences, f, and reduced shears, g = (g1, g2), can be determined independently of a lens model for the five resolved multiple images of the source at zs = 1.675 in CL0024. We also determine if a comparison to the respective results obtained by the parametric modelling tool Lenstool and by the non-parametric modelling tool Grale can detect biases in the models. For these lens models, we analyse the influence of the number and location of the constraints from multiple images on the lens properties at the positions of the five multiple images of the source at zs = 1.675. Methods: Our model-independent approach uses a linear mapping between the five resolved multiple images to determine the magnification ratios, ratios of convergences, and reduced shears at their positions. With constraints from up to six multiple image systems, we generate Lenstool and Grale models using the same image positions, cosmological parameters, and number of generated convergence and shear maps to determine the local values of J, f, and g at the same positions across all methods. Results: All approaches show strong agreement on the local values of J, f, and g. We find that Lenstool obtains the tightest confidence bounds even for convergences around one using constraints from six multiple-image systems, while the best Grale model is generated only using constraints from all multiple images with resolved brightness features and adding limited small-scale mass corrections. Yet, confidence bounds as large as the values themselves can occur for convergences close to one in all approaches. Conclusions: Our results agree with previous findings, support the light-traces-mass assumption, and the merger hypothesis for CL0024. Comparing the different approaches can detect model biases. The model-independent approach determines the local lens properties to a comparable precision in less than one second.

Dark energy and fate of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, XiaoDong; Wang, Shuang; Huang, QingGuo; Zhang, Xin; Li, Miao

2012-07-01

We explore the ultimate fate of the Universe by using a divergence-free parametrization for dark energy w( z)= w 0+ w a [ln(2 + z) / (1 + z) - ln 2]. Unlike the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization, this parametrization has well behaved, bounded behavior for both high redshifts and negative redshifts, and thus can genuinely cover many theoretical dark energy models. After constraining the parameter space of this parametrization by using the current cosmological observations, we find that, at the 95.4% confidence level, our Universe can still exist at least 16.7 Gyr before it ends in a big rip. Moreover, for the phantom energy dominated Universe, we find that a gravitationally bound system will be destroyed at a time {{t ˜eq Psqrt {2| {1 + 3w( - 1)} |} } {/ {{t ˜eq Psqrt {2| {1 + 3w( - 1)} |} } {[ {6π | {1 + w( - 1)} |} ]}}} . } {[ {6π | {1 + w( - 1)} |} ]}}, where P is the period of a circular orbit around this system, before the big rip.

Explaining the DAMPE data with scalar dark matter and gauged U(1)_{L_e-L_μ } interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Junjie; Feng, Lei; Guo, Xiaofei; Shang, Liangliang; Wang, Fei; Wu, Peiwen; Zu, Lei

2018-03-01

Inspired by the peak structure observed by recent DAMPE experiment in e^+e^- cosmic-ray spectrum, we consider a scalar dark matter (DM) model with gauged U(1)_{L_e-L_μ } symmetry, which is the most economical anomaly-free theory to potentially explain the peak by DM annihilation in nearby subhalo. We utilize the process χ χ → Z^' Z^' → l \\bar{l} l^' \\bar{l}^' , where χ , Z^' , l^{(' )} denote the scalar DM, the new gauge boson and l^{(' )} =e, μ , respectively, to generate the e^+e^- spectrum. By fitting the predicted spectrum to the experimental data, we obtain the favored DM mass range m_χ ˜eq 3060^{+80}_{-100} GeV and Δ m ≡ m_χ - m_{Z^' } ≲ 14 GeV at 68% Confidence Level (C.L.). Furthermore, we determine the parameter space of the model which can explain the peak and meanwhile satisfy the constraints from DM relic abundance, DM direct detection and the collider bounds. We conclude that the model we consider can account for the peak, although there exists a tension with the constraints from the LEP-II bound on m_{Z^' } arising from the cross section measurement of e^+e^- → Z^' *} → e^+ e^-.

Risks of Large Portfolios

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Shi, Xiaofeng

2014-01-01

The risk of a large portfolio is often estimated by substituting a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of such a risk estimator is largely unknown. We study factor-based risk estimators under a large amount of assets, and introduce a high-confidence level upper bound (H-CLUB) to assess the estimation. The H-CLUB is constructed using the confidence interval of risk estimators with either known or unknown factors. We derive the limiting distribution of the estimated risks in high dimensionality. We find that when the dimension is large, the factor-based risk estimators have the same asymptotic variance no matter whether the factors are known or not, which is slightly smaller than that of the sample covariance-based estimator. Numerically, H-CLUB outperforms the traditional crude bounds, and provides an insightful risk assessment. In addition, our simulated results quantify the relative error in the risk estimation, which is usually negligible using 3-month daily data. PMID:26195851

A new bound on axion-like particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, M. C. David; Russell, Helen R.; Fabian, Andrew C.; McNamara, Brian R.; Nulsen, Paul; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2017-12-01

Axion-like particles (ALPs) and photons can quantum mechanically interconvert when propagating through magnetic fields, and ALP-photon conversion may induce oscillatory features in the spectra of astrophysical sources. We use deep (370 ks), short frame time Chandra observations of the bright nucleus at the centre of the radio galaxy M87 in the Virgo cluster to search for signatures of light ALPs. The absence of substantial irregularities in the X-ray power-law spectrum leads to a new upper limit on the photon-ALP coupling, gaγ: using a very conservative model of the cluster magnetic field consistent with Faraday rotation measurements from M87 and M84, we find gaγ < 2.6 × 10-12 GeV-1 at 95% confidence level for ALP masses ma <= 10‑13 eV. Other consistent magnetic field models lead to stronger limits of gaγ lesssim 1.1–1.5 × 10‑12 GeV‑1. These bounds are all stronger than the limit inferred from the absence of a gamma-ray burst from SN1987A, and rule out a substantial fraction of the parameter space accessible to future experiments such as ALPS-II and IAXO.

Unveiling ν secrets with cosmological data: Neutrino masses and mass hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vagnozzi, Sunny; Giusarma, Elena; Mena, Olga; Freese, Katherine; Gerbino, Martina; Ho, Shirley; Lattanzi, Massimiliano

2017-12-01

Using some of the latest cosmological data sets publicly available, we derive the strongest bounds in the literature on the sum of the three active neutrino masses, Mν, within the assumption of a background flat Λ CDM cosmology. In the most conservative scheme, combining Planck cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropies and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) data, as well as the up-to-date constraint on the optical depth to reionization (τ ), the tightest 95% confidence level upper bound we find is Mν<0.151 eV . The addition of Planck high-ℓ polarization data, which, however, might still be contaminated by systematics, further tightens the bound to Mν<0.118 eV . A proper model comparison treatment shows that the two aforementioned combinations disfavor the inverted hierarchy at ˜64 % C .L . and ˜71 % C .L . , respectively. In addition, we compare the constraining power of measurements of the full-shape galaxy power spectrum versus the BAO signature, from the BOSS survey. Even though the latest BOSS full-shape measurements cover a larger volume and benefit from smaller error bars compared to previous similar measurements, the analysis method commonly adopted results in their constraining power still being less powerful than that of the extracted BAO signal. Our work uses only cosmological data; imposing the constraint Mν>0.06 eV from oscillations data would raise the quoted upper bounds by O (0.1 σ ) and would not affect our conclusions.

Translating Climate Projections for Bridge Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Takle, E. S.; Krajewski, W.; Mantilla, R.; Quintero, F.

2015-12-01

A bridge vulnerability pilot study was conducted by Iowa Department of Transportation (IADOT) as one of nineteen pilots supported by the Federal Highway Administration Climate Change Resilience Pilots. Our pilot study team consisted of the IADOT senior bridge engineer who is the preliminary design section leader as well as climate and hydrological scientists. The pilot project culminated in a visual graphic designed by the bridge engineer (Figure 1), and an evaluation framework for bridge engineering design. The framework has four stages. The first two stages evaluate the spatial and temporal resolution needed in climate projection data in order to be suitable for input to a hydrology model. The framework separates streamflow simulation error into errors from the streamflow model and from the coarseness of input weather data series. In the final two stages, the framework evaluates credibility of climate projection streamflow simulations. Using an empirically downscaled data set, projection streamflow is generated. Error is computed in two time frames: the training period of the empirical downscaling methodology, and an out-of-sample period. If large errors in projection streamflow were observed during the training period, it would indicate low accuracy and, therefore, low credibility. If large errors in streamflow were observed during the out-of-sample period, it would mean the approach may not include some causes of change and, therefore, the climate projections would have limited credibility for setting expectations for changes. We address uncertainty with confidence intervals on quantiles of streamflow discharge. The results show the 95% confidence intervals have significant overlap. Nevertheless, the use of confidence intervals enabled engineering judgement. In our discussions, we noted the consistency in direction of change across basins, though the flood mechanism was different across basins, and the high bound of bridge lifetime period quantiles exceeded that of the historical period. This suggested the change was not isolated, and it systemically altered the risk profile. One suggestion to incorporate engineering judgement was to consider degrees of vulnerability using the median discharge of the historical period and the upper bound discharge for the bridge lifetime period.

Observational constraints on generalized Proca theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Felice, Antonio; Heisenberg, Lavinia; Tsujikawa, Shinji

2017-06-01

In a model of the late-time cosmic acceleration within the framework of generalized Proca theories, there exists a de Sitter attractor preceded by the dark energy equation of state wDE=-1 -s , where s is a positive constant. We run the Markov-chain-Monte Carlo code to confront the model with the observational data of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), baryon acoustic oscillations, supernovae type Ia, and local measurements of the Hubble expansion rate for the background cosmological solutions and obtain the bound s =0.254-0.097+0.118 at 95% confidence level (C.L.). Existence of the additional parameter s to those in the Λ -cold-dark-matter (Λ CDM ) model allows to reduce tensions of the Hubble constant H0 between the CMB and the low-redshift measurements. Including the cosmic growth data of redshift-space distortions in the galaxy power spectrum and taking into account no-ghost and stability conditions of cosmological perturbations, we find that the bound on s is shifted to s =0.1 6-0.08+0.08 (95% C.L.) and hence the model with s >0 is still favored over the Λ CDM model. Apart from the quantities s ,H0 and the today's matter density parameter Ωm 0, the constraints on other model parameters associated with perturbations are less stringent, reflecting the fact that there are different sets of parameters that give rise to a similar cosmic expansion and growth history.

The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behavior. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimizes the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimizing free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action—constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualizes optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian) formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution—that minimizes free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behavior, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behavior entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control. PMID:24093015

Near Real-time GNSS-based Ionospheric Model using Expanded Kriging in the East Asia Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, P. H.; Bang, E.; Lee, J.

2016-12-01

Many applications which utilize radio waves (e.g. navigation, communications, and radio sciences) are influenced by the ionosphere. The technology to provide global ionospheric maps (GIM) which show ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) has been progressed by processing GNSS data. However, the GIMs have limited spatial resolution (e.g. 2.5° in latitude and 5° in longitude), because they are generated using globally-distributed and thus relatively sparse GNSS reference station networks. This study presents a near real-time and high spatial resolution TEC model over East Asia by using ionospheric observables from both International GNSS Service (IGS) and local GNSS networks and the expanded kriging method. New signals from multi-constellation (e.g,, GPS L5, Galileo E5) were also used to generate high-precision TEC estimates. The newly proposed estimation method is based on the universal kriging interpolation technique, but integrates TEC data from previous epochs to those from the current epoch to improve the TEC estimation performance by increasing ionospheric observability. To propagate previous measurements to the current epoch, we implemented a Kalman filter whose dynamic model was derived by using the first-order Gauss-Markov process which characterizes temporal ionospheric changes under the nominal ionospheric conditions. Along with the TEC estimates at grids, the method generates the confidence bounds on the estimates using resulting estimation covariance. We also suggest to classify the confidence bounds into several categories to allow users to recognize the quality levels of TEC estimates according to the requirements for user's applications. This paper examines the performance of the proposed method by obtaining estimation results for both nominal and disturbed ionospheric conditions, and compares these results to those provided by GIM of the NASA Jet propulsion Laboratory. In addition, the estimation results based on the expanded kriging method are compared to the results from the universal kriging method for both nominal and disturbed ionospheric conditions.

Budgeted Interactive Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-15

the methodology of reducing the online-algorithm-selecting problem as a contextual bandit problem, which is yet another interactive learning...KH2016a] Kuan-Hao Huang and Hsuan-Tien Lin. Linear upper confidence bound algorithm for contextual bandit problem with piled rewards. In Proceedings

A search for selectrons and squarks at HERA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aid, S.; Andreev, V.; Andrieu, B.; Appuhn, R.-D.; Arpagaus, M.; Babaev, A.; Bähr, J.; Bán, J.; Ban, Y.; Baranov, P.; Barrelet, E.; Barschke, R.; Bartel, W.; Barth, M.; Bassler, U.; Beck, H. P.; Behrend, H.-J.; Belousov, A.; Berger, Ch.; Bernardi, G.; Bernet, R.; Bertrand-Coremans, G.; Besançon, M.; Beyer, R.; Biddulph, P.; Bispham, P.; Bizot, J. C.; Blobel, V.; Borras, K.; Botterweck, F.; Boudry, V.; Braemer, A.; Braunschweig, W.; Brisson, V.; Bruel, P.; Bruncko, D.; Brune, C.; Buchholz, R.; Büngener, L.; Bürger, J.; Büsser, F. W.; Buniatian, A.; Burke, S.; Burton, M. J.; Buschhorn, G.; Campbell, A. J.; Carli, T.; Charlet, M.; Clarke, D.; Clegg, A. B.; Clerbaux, B.; Cocks, S.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormack, C.; Coughlan, J. A.; Courau, A.; Cousinou, M.-C.; Cozzika, G.; Criegee, L.; Cussans, D. G.; Cvach, J.; Dagoret, S.; Dainton, J. B.; Dau, W. D.; Daum, K.; David, M.; Davis, C. L.; Delcourt, B.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E. A.; Dirkmann, M.; Dixon, P.; Di Nezza, P.; Dlugosz, W.; Dollfus, C.; Dowell, J. D.; Dreis, H. B.; Droutskoi, A.; Düllmann, D.; Dünger, O.; Duhm, H.; Ebert, J.; Ebert, T. R.; Eckerlin, G.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Eichler, R.; Eisele, F.; Eisenhandler, E.; Ellison, R. J.; Elsen, E.; Erdmann, M.; Erdmann, W.; Evrard, E.; Fahr, A. B.; Favart, L.; Fedotov, A.; Feeken, D.; Felst, R.; Feltesse, J.; Ferencei, J.; Ferrarotto, F.; Flamm, K.; Fleischer, M.; Flieser, M.; Flügge, G.; Fomenko, A.; Fominykh, B.; Formánek, J.; Foster, J. M.; Franke, G.; Fretwurst, E.; Gabathuler, E.; Gabathuler, K.; Gaede, F.; Garvey, J.; Gayler, J.; Gebauer, M.; Gellrich, A.; Genzel, H.; Gerhards, R.; Glazov, A.; Goerlach, U.; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Goldberg, M.; Goldner, D.; Golec-Biernat, K.; Gonzalez-Pineiro, B.; Gorelov, I.; Grab, C.; Grässler, H.; Grässler, R.; Greenshaw, T.; Griffiths, R. K.; Grindhammer, G.; Gruber, A.; Gruber, C.; Haack, J.; Hadig, T.; Haidt, D.; Hajduk, L.; Hampel, M.; Haynes, W. J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henderson, R. C. W.; Henschel, H.; Herynek, I.; Hess, M. F.; Hildesheim, W.; Hiller, K. H.; Hilton, C. D.; Hladký, J.; Hoeger, K. C.; Höppner, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Holtom, T.; Horisberger, R.; Hudgson, V. L.; Hütte, M.; Hufnagel, H.; Ibbotson, M.; Itterbeck, H.; Jacholkowska, A.; Jacobsson, C.; Jaffre, M.; Janoth, J.; Jansen, T.; Jönsson, L.; Johannsen, K.; Johnson, D. P.; Johnson, L.; Jung, H.; Kalmus, P. I. P.; Kander, M.; Kant, D.; Kaschowitz, R.; Kathage, U.; Katzy, J.; Kaufmann, H. H.; Kaufmann, O.; Kazarian, S.; Kenyon, I. R.; Kermiche, S.; Keuker, C.; Kiesling, C.; Klein, M.; Kleinwort, C.; Knies, G.; Köhler, T.; Köhne, J. H.; Kolanoski, H.; Kole, F.; Kolya, S. D.; Korbel, V.; Korn, M.; Kostka, P.; Kotelnikov, S. K.; Krämerkämper, T.; Krasny, M. W.; Krehbiel, H.; Krücker, D.; Krüger, U.; Krüner-Marquis, U.; Küster, H.; Kuhlen, M.; Kurča, T.; Kurzhöfer, J.; Lacour, D.; Laforge, B.; Lander, R.; Landon, M. P. J.; Lange, W.; Langenegger, U.; Laporte, J.-F.; Lebedev, A.; Lehner, F.; Leverenz, C.; Levonian, S.; Ley, Ch.; Lindström, G.; Lindstroem, M.; Link, J.; Linsel, F.; Lipinski, J.; List, B.; Lobo, G.; Lohmander, H.; Lomas, J. W.; Lopez, G. C.; Lubimov, V.; Lüke, D.; Magnussen, N.; Malinovski, E.; Mani, S.; Maraček, R.; Marage, P.; Marks, J.; Marshall, R.; Martens, J.; Martin, G.; Martin, R.; Martyn, H.-U.; Martyniak, J.; Mavroidis, T.; Maxfield, S. J.; McMahon, S. J.; Mehta, A.; Meier, K.; Merz, T.; Meyer, A.; Meyer, A.; Meyer, H.; Meyer, J.; Meyer, P.-O.; Migliori, A.; Mikocki, S.; Milstead, D.; Moeck, J.; Moreau, F.; Morris, J. V.; Mroczko, E.; Müller, D.; Müller, G.; Müller, K.; Murín, P.; Nagovizin, V.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naroska, B.; Naumann, Th.; Newman, P. R.; Newton, D.; Neyret, D.; Nguyen, H. K.; Nicholls, T. C.; Niebergall, F.; Niebuhr, C.; Niedzballa, Ch.; Niggli, H.; Nisius, R.; Nowak, G.; Noyes, G. W.; Nyberg-Werther, M.; Oakden, M.; Oberlack, H.; Obrock, U.; Olsson, J. E.; Ozerov, D.; Palmen, P.; Panaro, E.; Panitch, A.; Pascaud, C.; Patel, G. D.; Pawletta, H.; Peppel, E.; Perez, E.; Phillips, J. P.; Pieuchot, A.; Pitzl, D.; Pope, G.; Prell, S.; Prosi, R.; Rabbertz, K.; Rädel, G.; Raupach, F.; Reimer, P.; Reinshagen, S.; Rick, H.; Riech, V.; Riedlberger, J.; Riepenhausen, F.; Riess, S.; Rizvi, E.; Robertson, S. M.; Robmann, P.; Roloff, H. E.; Roosen, R.; Rosenbauer, K.; Rostovtsev, A.; Rouse, F.; Royon, C.; Rüter, K.; Rusakov, S.; Rybicki, K.; Sahlmann, N.; Sankey, D. P. C.; Schacht, P.; Scharein, S.; Schiek, S.; Schleif, S.; Schleper, P.; von Schlippe, W.; Schnidt, D.; Schmidt, G.; Schöning, A.; Schröder, V.; Schuhmann, E.; Schwab, B.; Sefkow, F.; Seidel, M.; Sell, R.; Semenov, A.; Shekelyan, V.; Sheviakov, I.; Shtarkov, L. N.; Siegmon, G.; Siewert, U.; Sirois, Y.; Skillicorn, I. O.; Smirnov, P.; Smith, J. R.; Solochenko, V.; Soloviev, Y.; Specka, A.; Spiekermann, J.; Spielman, S.; Spitzer, H.; Squinabol, F.; Starosta, R.; Steenbock, M.; Steffen, P.; Steinberg, R.; Steiner, H.; Stella, B.; Stellberger, A.; Stier, J.; Stiewe, J.; Stößlein, U.; Stolze, K.; Straumann, U.; Struczinski, W.; Sutton, J. P.; Tapprogge, S.; Taševský, M.; Tchernyshov, V.; Tchetchelnitski, S.; Theissen, J.; Thiebaux, C.; Thompson, G.; Truöl, P.; Turnau, J.; Tutas, J.; Uelkes, P.; Usik, A.; Valkár, S.; Valkárová, A.; Vallée, C.; Vandenplas, D.; Van Esch, P.; Van Mechelen, P.; Vazdik, Y.; Verrechia, P.; Villet, G.; Wacker, K.; Wagener, A.; Wagener, M.; Walther, A.; Waugh, B.; Weber, G.; Weber, M.; Wegener, D.; Wegner, A.; Wengler, T.; Werner, M.; West, L. R.; Wilksen, T.; Willard, S.; Winde, M.; Winter, G.-G.; Wittek, C.; Wünsch, E.; Žáček, J.; Zarbock, D.; Zhang, Z.; Zhokin, A.; Zomer, F.; Zsembery, J.; Zuber, K.; ZurNeden, M.; H1 Collaboration

1996-02-01

Data from electron-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 300 GeV are used for a search for selectrons and squarks within the framework of the minimal supersymmetric model. The decays of selectrons and squarks into the lightest supersymmetric particle lead to final states with an electron and hadrons accompanied by large missing energy and transverse momentum. No signal is found and new bounds on the existence of these particles are derived. At 95% confidence level the excluded region extends to 65 GeV for selectron and squark masses, and to 40 GeV for the mass of the lightest supersymmetric particle.

Robust Inference of Risks of Large Portfolios

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Han, Fang; Liu, Han; Vickers, Byron

2016-01-01

We propose a bootstrap-based robust high-confidence level upper bound (Robust H-CLUB) for assessing the risks of large portfolios. The proposed approach exploits rank-based and quantile-based estimators, and can be viewed as a robust extension of the H-CLUB procedure (Fan et al., 2015). Such an extension allows us to handle possibly misspecified models and heavy-tailed data, which are stylized features in financial returns. Under mixing conditions, we analyze the proposed approach and demonstrate its advantage over H-CLUB. We further provide thorough numerical results to back up the developed theory, and also apply the proposed method to analyze a stock market dataset. PMID:27818569

The upper bound on the lowest mass halo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jethwa, P.; Erkal, D.; Belokurov, V.

2018-01-01

We explore the connection between galaxies and dark matter haloes in the Milky Way (MW) and quantify the implications on properties of the dark matter particle and the phenomenology of low-mass galaxy formation. This is done through a probabilistic comparison of the luminosity function of MW dwarf satellite galaxies to models based on two suites of zoom-in simulations. One suite is dark-matter-only, while the other includes a disc component, therefore we can quantify the effect of the MW's baryonic disc on our results. We apply numerous stellar-mass-halo-mass (SMHM) relations allowing for multiple complexities: scatter, a characteristic break scale, and subhaloes which host no galaxy. In contrast to previous works, we push the model/data comparison to the faintest dwarfs by modelling observational incompleteness, allowing us to draw three new conclusions. First, we constrain the SMHM relation for 102 < M*/ M⊙ < 108 galaxies, allowing us to bound the peak halo mass of the faintest MW satellite to Mvir > 2.4 × 108 M⊙ (1σ). Secondly, by translating to a warm dark matter (WDM) cosmology, we bound the thermal relic mass mWDM > 2.9 keV at 95 per cent confidence, on a par with recent constraints from the Lyman-α forest. Lastly, we find that the observed number of ultra-faint MW dwarfs is in tension with the theoretical prediction that reionization prevents galaxy formation in almost all 108 M⊙ haloes. This can be tested with the next generation of deep imaging surveys. To this end, we predict the likely number of detectable satellite galaxies in the Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam survey and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope. Confronting these predictions with future observations will be amongst our strongest tests of WDM and the effect reionization on low-mass systems.

Exact one-sided confidence limits for the difference between two correlated proportions.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-08-15

We construct exact and optimal one-sided upper and lower confidence bounds for the difference between two probabilities based on matched binary pairs using well-established optimality theory of Buehler. Starting with five different approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust them to have coverage probability exactly equal to the desired nominal level and then compare the resulting exact limits by their mean size. Exact limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are preferred and recommended for practical use.

Search for production of heavy particles decaying to top quarks and invisible particles in pp collisions at √s = 1.96  TeV.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Álvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Appel, J A; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Asaadi, J; Ashmanskas, W; Auerbach, B; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Barria, P; Bartos, P; Bauce, M; Bauer, G; Bedeschi, F; Beecher, D; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Bland, K R; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Brigliadori, L; Brisuda, A; Bromberg, C; Brucken, E; Bucciantonio, M; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Calancha, C; Camarda, S; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carls, B; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chou, J P; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciobanu, C I; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Corbo, M; Cordelli, M; Cox, C A; Cox, D J; Crescioli, F; Cuenca Almenar, C; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Dagenhart, D; d'Ascenzo, N; Datta, M; de Barbaro, P; De Cecco, S; De Lorenzo, G; Dell'Orso, M; Deluca, C; Demortier, L; Deng, J; Deninno, M; Devoto, F; d'Errico, M; Di Canto, A; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Dorigo, M; Dorigo, T; Ebina, K; Elagin, A; Eppig, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, D; Errede, S; Ershaidat, N; Eusebi, R; Fang, H C; Farrington, S; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Ferrazza, C; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Frank, M J; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Funakoshi, Y; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Galyardt, J; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Garosi, P; Gerberich, H; Gerchtein, E; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giromini, P; Giunta, M; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; 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Yamaoka, J; Yang, T; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W-M; Yeh, G P; Yi, K; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanetti, A; Zeng, Y; Zucchelli, S

2011-05-13

We present a search for a new particle T' decaying to top quark via T' → t + X, where X is an invisible particle. In a data sample with 4.8  fb(-1) of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II detector at Fermilab in pp collisions with √s = 1.96  TeV, we search for pair production of T' in the lepton + jets channel, pp → tt + X + X → ℓνbqq'b + X + X. We interpret our results primarily in terms of a model where T' are exotic fourth generation quarks and X are dark matter particles. Current direct and indirect bounds on such exotic quarks restrict their masses to be between 300 and 600  GeV/c2, the dark matter particle mass being anywhere below m(T'). The data are consistent with standard model expectations, and we set 95% confidence level limits on the generic production of T'T' → tt + X + X. For the dark matter model we exclude T' at 95% confidence level up to m(T') = 360  GeV/c2 for m(X) ≤ 100  GeV/c2.

Search for new long-lived particles at √{ s } = 13 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

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D.; Wang, Q.; Ivanov, A.; Kaadze, K.; Maravin, Y.; Mohammadi, A.; Saini, L. K.; Skhirtladze, N.; Toda, S.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Anelli, C.; Baden, A.; Baron, O.; Belloni, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Ferraioli, C.; Hadley, N. J.; Jabeen, S.; Jeng, G. Y.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kunkle, J.; Mignerey, A. C.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Shin, Y. H.; Skuja, A.; Tonwar, S. C.; Abercrombie, D.; Allen, B.; Azzolini, V.; Barbieri, R.; Baty, A.; Bi, R.; Brandt, S.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; D'Alfonso, M.; Demiragli, Z.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Hsu, D.; Iiyama, Y.; Innocenti, G. M.; Klute, M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Maier, B.; Marini, A. C.; Mcginn, C.; Mironov, C.; Narayanan, S.; Niu, X.; Paus, C.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Tatar, K.; Velicanu, D.; Wang, J.; Wang, T. W.; Wyslouch, B.; Benvenuti, A. C.; Chatterjee, R. M.; Evans, A.; Hansen, P.; Kalafut, S.; Kubota, Y.; Lesko, Z.; Mans, J.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Ruckstuhl, N.; Rusack, R.; Turkewitz, J.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Claes, D. R.; Fangmeier, C.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Kamalieddin, R.; Kravchenko, I.; Monroy, J.; Siado, J. E.; Snow, G. R.; Stieger, B.; Alyari, M.; Dolen, J.; Godshalk, A.; Harrington, C.; Iashvili, I.; Nguyen, D.; Parker, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Roozbahani, B.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Hortiangtham, A.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Teixeira De Lima, R.; Trocino, D.; Wood, D.; Bhattacharya, S.; Charaf, O.; Hahn, K. A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Schmitt, M. H.; Sung, K.; Trovato, M.; Velasco, M.; Dev, N.; Hildreth, M.; Hurtado Anampa, K.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Loukas, N.; Marinelli, N.; Meng, F.; Mueller, C.; Musienko, Y.; Planer, M.; Reinsvold, A.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Taroni, S.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Alimena, J.; Antonelli, L.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Francis, B.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Ji, W.; Liu, B.; Luo, W.; Puigh, D.; Winer, B. L.; Wulsin, H. W.; Benaglia, A.; Cooperstein, S.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Higginbotham, S.; Lange, D.; Luo, J.; Marlow, D.; Mei, K.; Ojalvo, I.; Olsen, J.; Palmer, C.; Piroué, P.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Malik, S.; Norberg, S.; Barker, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Folgueras, S.; Gutay, L.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, A. W.; Khatiwada, A.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Peng, C. C.; Schulte, J. F.; Sun, J.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Cheng, T.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Chen, Z.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Guilbaud, M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Northup, M.; Padley, B. P.; Roberts, J.; Rorie, J.; Tu, Z.; Zabel, J.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Duh, Y. t.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Han, J.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Lo, K. H.; Tan, P.; Verzetti, M.; Ciesielski, R.; Goulianos, K.; Mesropian, C.; Agapitos, A.; Chou, J. P.; Gershtein, Y.; Gómez Espinosa, T. A.; Halkiadakis, E.; Heindl, M.; Hughes, E.; Kaplan, S.; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R.; Kyriacou, S.; Lath, A.; Montalvo, R.; Nash, K.; Osherson, M.; Saka, H.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Sheffield, D.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Delannoy, A. G.; Foerster, M.; Heideman, J.; Riley, G.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; Thapa, K.; Bouhali, O.; Castaneda Hernandez, A.; Celik, A.; Dalchenko, M.; De Mattia, M.; Delgado, A.; Dildick, S.; Eusebi, R.; Gilmore, J.; Huang, T.; Kamon, T.; Mueller, R.; Pakhotin, Y.; Patel, R.; Perloff, A.; Perniè, L.; Rathjens, D.; Safonov, A.; Tatarinov, A.; Ulmer, K. A.; Akchurin, N.; Damgov, J.; De Guio, F.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Gurpinar, E.; Kunori, S.; Lamichhane, K.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Peltola, T.; Undleeb, S.; Volobouev, I.; Wang, Z.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Janjam, R.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Melo, A.; Ni, H.; Sheldon, P.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Xu, Q.; Arenton, M. W.; Barria, P.; Cox, B.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Neu, C.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Sun, X.; Wang, Y.; Wolfe, E.; Xia, F.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Sturdy, J.; Zaleski, S.; Brodski, M.; Buchanan, J.; Caillol, C.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Gomber, B.; Grothe, M.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Hussain, U.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Levine, A.; Long, K.; Loveless, R.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ruggles, T.; Savin, A.; Smith, N.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Woods, N.; CMS Collaboration

2018-05-01

A search for long-lived particles was performed with data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.6 fb-1 collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the CMS experiment in 2015. The analysis exploits two customized topological trigger algorithms, and uses the multiplicity of displaced jets to search for the presence of a signal decay occurring at distances between 1 and 1000 mm. The results can be interpreted in a variety of different models. For pair-produced long-lived particles decaying to two b quarks and two leptons with equal decay rates between lepton flavors, cross sections larger than 2.5 fb are excluded for proper decay lengths between 70-100 mm for a long-lived particle mass of 1130 GeV at 95% confidence. For a specific model of pair-produced, long-lived top squarks with R-parity violating decays to a b quark and a lepton, masses below 550-1130 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence for equal branching fractions between lepton flavors, depending on the squark decay length. This mass bound is the most stringent to date for top squark proper decay lengths greater than 3 mm.

Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2011-01-01

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

NASA DOEPOD NDE Capabilities Data Book

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2015-01-01

This data book contains the Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection (POD) Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) analyses of the nondestructive inspection data presented in the NTIAC, Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Capabilities Data Book. DOEPOD is designed as a decision support system to validate inspection system, personnel, and protocol demonstrating 0.90 POD with 95% confidence at critical flaw sizes, a90/95. Although 0.90 POD with 95% confidence at critical flaw sizes is often stated as an inspection requirement in inspection documents, including NASA Standards, NASA critical aerospace applications have historically only accepted 0.978 POD or better with a 95% one-sided lower confidence bound exceeding 0.90 at critical flaw sizes, a90/95.

Alternate methods for FAAT S-curve generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufman, A.M.

The FAAT (Foreign Asset Assessment Team) assessment methodology attempts to derive a probability of effect as a function of incident field strength. The probability of effect is the likelihood that the stress put on a system exceeds its strength. In the FAAT methodology, both the stress and strength are random variables whose statistical properties are estimated by experts. Each random variable has two components of uncertainty: systematic and random. The systematic uncertainty drives the confidence bounds in the FAAT assessment. Its variance can be reduced by improved information. The variance of the random uncertainty is not reducible. The FAAT methodologymore » uses an assessment code called ARES to generate probability of effect curves (S-curves) at various confidence levels. ARES assumes log normal distributions for all random variables. The S-curves themselves are log normal cumulants associated with the random portion of the uncertainty. The placement of the S-curves depends on confidence bounds. The systematic uncertainty in both stress and strength is usually described by a mode and an upper and lower variance. Such a description is not consistent with the log normal assumption of ARES and an unsatisfactory work around solution is used to obtain the required placement of the S-curves at each confidence level. We have looked into this situation and have found that significant errors are introduced by this work around. These errors are at least several dB-W/cm{sup 2} at all confidence levels, but they are especially bad in the estimate of the median. In this paper, we suggest two alternate solutions for the placement of S-curves. To compare these calculational methods, we have tabulated the common combinations of upper and lower variances and generated the relevant S-curves offsets from the mode difference of stress and strength.« less

Speaking Activities for the Advanced College-Bound Student.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Don

Three activities for developing speaking skills of advanced English as second language students are presented. Impromptu speaking, extemporaneous speaking, and debate activities are designed to train students to organize concepts, develop spontaneous oral skills, and enhance confidence and clarity of thought. Impromptu speaking develops…

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Symptom variability, affect and physical activity in ambulatory persons with multiple sclerosis: Understanding patterns and time-bound relationships.

PubMed

Kasser, Susan L; Goldstein, Amanda; Wood, Phillip K; Sibold, Jeremy

2017-04-01

Individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) experience a clinical course that is highly variable with daily fluctuations in symptoms significantly affecting functional ability and quality of life. Yet, understanding how MS symptoms co-vary and associate with physical and psychological health is unclear. The purpose of the study was to explore variability patterns and time-bound relationships across symptoms, affect, and physical activity in individuals with MS. The study employed a multivariate, replicated, single-subject repeated-measures (MRSRM) design and involved four individuals with MS. Mood, fatigue, pain, balance confidence, and losses of balance were measured daily over 28 days by self-report. Physical activity was also measured daily over this same time period via accelerometry. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) was used to determine the dimensionality and lagged relationships across the variables. Person-specific models revealed considerable time-dependent co-variation patterns as well as pattern variation across subjects. Results also offered insight into distinct variability structures at varying levels of disability. Modeling person-level variability may be beneficial for addressing the heterogeneity of experiences in individuals with MS and for understanding temporal and dynamic interrelationships among perceived symptoms, affect, and health outcomes in this group. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enhnacing the science of the WFIRST coronagraph instrument with post-processing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pueyo, Laurent; WFIRST CGI data analysis and post-processing WG

2018-01-01

We summarize the results of a three years effort investigating how to apply to the WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI) modern image analysis methods, now routinely used with ground-based coronagraphs. In this post we quantify the gain associated post-processing for WFIRST-CGI observing scenarios simulated between 2013 and 2017. We also show based one simulations that spectrum of planet can be confidently retrieved using these processing tools with and Integral Field Spectrograph. We then discuss our work using CGI experimental data and quantify coronagraph post-processing testbed gains. We finally introduce stability metrics that are simple to define and measure, and place useful lower bound and upper bounds on the achievable RDI post-processing contrast gain. We show that our bounds hold in the case of the testbed data.

Proteomic analysis of human aqueous humor using multidimensional protein identification technology

PubMed Central

Richardson, Matthew R.; Price, Marianne O.; Price, Francis W.; Pardo, Jennifer C.; Grandin, Juan C.; You, Jinsam; Wang, Mu

2009-01-01

Aqueous humor (AH) supports avascular tissues in the anterior segment of the eye, maintains intraocular pressure, and potentially influences the pathogenesis of ocular diseases. Nevertheless, the AH proteome is still poorly defined despite several previous efforts, which were hindered by interfering high abundance proteins, inadequate animal models, and limited proteomic technologies. To facilitate future investigations into AH function, the AH proteome was extensively characterized using an advanced proteomic approach. Samples from patients undergoing cataract surgery were pooled and depleted of interfering abundant proteins and thereby divided into two fractions: albumin-bound and albumin-depleted. Multidimensional Protein Identification Technology (MudPIT) was utilized for each fraction; this incorporates strong cation exchange chromatography to reduce sample complexity before reversed-phase liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometric analysis. Twelve proteins had multi-peptide, high confidence identifications in the albumin-bound fraction and 50 proteins had multi-peptide, high confidence identifications in the albumin-depleted fraction. Gene ontological analyses were performed to determine which cellular components and functions were enriched. Many proteins were previously identified in the AH and for several their potential role in the AH has been investigated; however, the majority of identified proteins were novel and only speculative roles can be suggested. The AH was abundant in anti-oxidant and immunoregulatory proteins as well as anti-angiogenic proteins, which may be involved in maintaining the avascular tissues. This is the first known report to extensively characterize and describe the human AH proteome and lays the foundation for future work regarding its function in homeostatic and pathologic states. PMID:20019884

Proposed Framework for Determining Added Mass of Orion Drogue Parachutes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fraire, Usbaldo, Jr.; Dearman, James; Morris, Aaron

2011-01-01

The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) project is executing a program to qualify a parachute system for a next generation human spacecraft. Part of the qualification process involves predicting parachute riser tension during system descent with flight simulations. Human rating the CPAS hardware requires a high degree of confidence in the simulation models used to predict parachute loads. However, uncertainty exists in the heritage added mass models used for loads predictions due to a lack of supporting documentation and data. Even though CPAS anchors flight simulation loads predictions to flight tests, extrapolation of these models outside the test regime carries the risk of producing non-bounding loads. A set of equations based on empirically derived functions of skirt radius is recommended as the simplest and most viable method to test and derive an enhanced added mass model for an inflating parachute. This will increase confidence in the capability to predict parachute loads. The selected equations are based on those published in A Simplified Dynamic Model of Parachute Inflation by Dean Wolf. An Ames 80x120 wind tunnel test campaign is recommended to acquire the reefing line tension and canopy photogrammetric data needed to quantify the terms in the Wolf equations and reduce uncertainties in parachute loads predictions. Once the campaign is completed, the Wolf equations can be used to predict loads in a typical CPAS Drogue Flight test. Comprehensive descriptions of added mass test techniques from the Apollo Era to the current CPAS project are included for reference.

Cosmic acceleration in non-flat f( T) cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capozziello, Salvatore; Luongo, Orlando; Pincak, Richard; Ravanpak, Arvin

2018-05-01

We study f( T) cosmological models inserting a non-vanishing spatial curvature and discuss its consequences on cosmological dynamics. To figure this out, a polynomial f( T) model and a double torsion model are considered. We first analyze those models with cosmic data, employing the recent surveys of Union 2.1, baryonic acoustic oscillation and cosmic microwave background measurements. We then emphasize that the two popular f( T) models enable the crossing of the phantom divide line due to dark torsion. Afterwards, we compute numerical bounds up to 3-σ confidence level, emphasizing the fact that Ω _{k0} turns out to be non-compatible with zero at least at 1σ . Moreover, we underline that, even increasing the accuracy, one cannot remove the degeneracy between our models and the Λ CDM paradigm. So that, we show that our treatments contain the concordance paradigm and we analyze the equation of state behaviors at different redshift domains. We also take into account gamma ray bursts and we describe the evolution of both the f( T) models with high redshift data. We calibrate the gamma ray burst measurements through small redshift surveys of data and we thus compare the main differences between non-flat and flat f( T) cosmology at different redshift ranges. We finally match the corresponding outcomes with small redshift bounds provided by cosmography. To do so, we analyze the deceleration parameters and their variations, proportional to the jerk term. Even though the two models well fit late-time data, we notice that the polynomial f( T) approach provides an effective de-Sitter phase, whereas the second f( T) framework shows analogous results compared with the Λ CDM predictions.

A reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model as a software sensor for rapid estimation of five-day biochemical oxygen demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noori, Roohollah; Safavi, Salman; Nateghi Shahrokni, Seyyed Afshin

2013-07-01

The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) is one of the key parameters in water quality management. In this study, a novel approach, i.e., reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ROANFIS) model was developed for rapid estimation of BOD5. In addition, an uncertainty analysis of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ROANFIS models was carried out based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Accuracy analysis of ANFIS and ROANFIS models based on both developed discrepancy ratio and threshold statistics revealed that the selected ROANFIS model was superior. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error for the best fitted ROANFIS model were 0.96 and 7.12, respectively. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of the developed models indicated that the selected ROANFIS had less uncertainty than the ANFIS model and accurately forecasted BOD5 in the Sefidrood River Basin. Besides, the uncertainty analysis also showed that bracketed predictions by 95% confidence bound and d-factor in the testing steps for the selected ROANFIS model were 94% and 0.83, respectively.

The linearized multistage model and the future of quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Crump, K S

1996-10-01

The linearized multistage (LMS) model has for over 15 years been the default dose-response model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and other federal and state regulatory agencies in the United States for calculating quantitative estimates of low-dose carcinogenic risks from animal data. The LMS model is in essence a flexible statistical model that can describe both linear and non-linear dose-response patterns, and that produces an upper confidence bound on the linear low-dose slope of the dose-response curve. Unlike its namesake, the Armitage-Doll multistage model, the parameters of the LMS do not correspond to actual physiological phenomena. Thus the LMS is 'biological' only to the extent that the true biological dose response is linear at low dose and that low-dose slope is reflected in the experimental data. If the true dose response is non-linear the LMS upper bound may overestimate the true risk by many orders of magnitude. However, competing low-dose extrapolation models, including those derived from 'biologically-based models' that are capable of incorporating additional biological information, have not shown evidence to date of being able to produce quantitative estimates of low-dose risks that are any more accurate than those obtained from the LMS model. Further, even if these attempts were successful, the extent to which more accurate estimates of low-dose risks in a test animal species would translate into improved estimates of human risk is questionable. Thus, it does not appear possible at present to develop a quantitative approach that would be generally applicable and that would offer significant improvements upon the crude bounding estimates of the type provided by the LMS model. Draft USEPA guidelines for cancer risk assessment incorporate an approach similar to the LMS for carcinogens having a linear mode of action. However, under these guidelines quantitative estimates of low-dose risks would not be developed for carcinogens having a non-linear mode of action; instead dose-response modelling would be used in the experimental range to calculate an LED10* (a statistical lower bound on the dose corresponding to a 10% increase in risk), and safety factors would be applied to the LED10* to determine acceptable exposure levels for humans. This approach is very similar to the one presently used by USEPA for non-carcinogens. Rather than using one approach for carcinogens believed to have a linear mode of action and a different approach for all other health effects, it is suggested herein that it would be more appropriate to use an approach conceptually similar to the 'LED10*-safety factor' approach for all health effects, and not to routinely develop quantitative risk estimates from animal data.

Bounding species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Esaias, W.E.; Morisette, J.T.

2011-01-01

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used. ?? 2011 Current Zoology.

Bounding Species Distribution Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

2011-01-01

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

Exploring L1 model space in search of conductivity bounds for the MT problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheelock, B. D.; Parker, R. L.

2013-12-01

Geophysical inverse problems of the type encountered in electromagnetic techniques are highly non-unique. As a result, any single inverted model, though feasible, is at best inconclusive and at worst misleading. In this paper, we use modified inversion methods to establish bounds on electrical conductivity within a model of the earth. Our method consists of two steps, each making use of the 1-norm in model regularization. Both 1-norm minimization problems are framed without approximation as non-negative least-squares (NNLS) problems. First, we must identify a parsimonious set of regions within the model for which upper and lower bounds on average conductivity will be sought. This is accomplished by minimizing the 1-norm of spatial variation, which produces a model with a limited number of homogeneous regions; in fact, the number of homogeneous regions will never be greater than the number of data, regardless of the number of free parameters supplied. The second step establishes bounds for each of these regions with pairs of inversions. The new suite of inversions also uses a 1-norm penalty, but applied to the conductivity values themselves, rather than the spatial variation thereof. In the bounding step we use the 1-norm of our model parameters because it is proportional to average conductivity. For a lower bound on average conductivity, the 1-norm within a bounding region is minimized. For an upper bound on average conductivity, the 1-norm everywhere outside a bounding region is minimized. The latter minimization has the effect of concentrating conductance into the bounding region. Taken together, these bounds are a measure of the uncertainty in the associated region of our model. Starting with a blocky inverse solution is key in the selection of the bounding regions. Of course, there is a tradeoff between resolution and uncertainty: an increase in resolution (smaller bounding regions), results in greater uncertainty (wider bounds). Minimization of the 1-norm of spatial variation delivers the fewest possible regions defined by a mean conductivity, the quantity we wish to bound. Thus, these regions present a natural set for which the most narrow and discriminating bounds can be found. For illustration, we apply these techniques to synthetic magnetotelluric (MT) data sets resulting from one-dimensional (1D) earth models. In each case we find that with realistic data coverage, any single inverted model can often stray from the truth, while the computed bounds on an encompassing region contain both the inverted and the true conductivities, indicating that our measure of model uncertainty is robust. Such estimates of uncertainty for conductivity can then be translated to bounds on important petrological parameters such as mineralogy, porosity, saturation, and fluid type.

Uncertainties in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

DOE PAGES

Cote, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Oshea, Brian W.; ...

2016-06-15

Here we use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number ofmore » SNe Ia per M ⊙ formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.« less

Pharmacokinetics and repolarization effects of intravenous and transdermal granisetron.

PubMed

Mason, Jay W; Selness, Daniel S; Moon, Thomas E; O'Mahony, Bridget; Donachie, Peter; Howell, Julian

2012-05-15

The need for greater clarity about the effects of 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists on cardiac repolarization is apparent in the changing product labeling across this therapeutic class. This study assessed the repolarization effects of granisetron, a 5-HT(3) receptor antagonist antiemetic, administered intravenously and by a granisetron transdermal system (GTDS). In a parallel four-arm study, healthy subjects were randomized to receive intravenous granisetron, GTDS, placebo, or oral moxifloxacin (active control). The primary endpoint was difference in change from baseline in mean Fridericia-corrected QT interval (QTcF) between GTDS and placebo (ddQTcF) on days 3 and 5. A total of 240 subjects were enrolled, 60 in each group. Adequate sensitivity for detection of QTc change was shown by a 5.75 ms lower bound of the 90% confidence interval (CI) for moxifloxacin versus placebo at 2 hours postdose on day 3. Day 3 ddQTcF values varied between 0.2 and 1.9 ms for GTDS (maximum upper bound of 90% CI, 6.88 ms), between -1.2 and 1.6 ms for i.v. granisetron (maximum upper bound of 90% CI, 5.86 ms), and between -3.4 and 4.7 ms for moxifloxacin (maximum upper bound of 90% CI, 13.45 ms). Day 5 findings were similar. Pharmacokinetic-ddQTcF modeling showed a minimally positive slope of 0.157 ms/(ng/mL), but a very low correlation (r = 0.090). GTDS was not associated with statistically or clinically significant effects on QTcF or other electrocardiographic variables. This study provides useful clarification on the effect of granisetron delivered by GTDS on cardiac repolarization. ©2012 AACR.

Uncertainties for two-dimensional models of solar rotation from helioseismic eigenfrequency splitting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genovese, Christopher R.; Stark, Philip B.; Thompson, Michael J.

1995-01-01

Observed solar p-mode frequency splittings can be used to estimate angular velocity as a function of position in the solar interior. Formal uncertainties of such estimates depend on the method of estimation (e.g., least-squares), the distribution of errors in the observations, and the parameterization imposed on the angular velocity. We obtain lower bounds on the uncertainties that do not depend on the method of estimation; the bounds depend on an assumed parameterization, but the fact that they are lower bounds for the 'true' uncertainty does not. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals for estimates of the angular velocity from 1986 Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) data, based on a 3659 element tensor-product cubic-spline parameterization, are everywhere wider than 120 nHz, and exceed 60,000 nHz near the core. When compared with estimates of the solar rotation, these bounds reveal that useful inferences based on pointwise estimates of the angular velocity using 1986 BBSO splitting data are not feasible over most of the Sun's volume. The discouraging size of the uncertainties is due principally to the fact that helioseismic measurements are insensitive to changes in the angular velocity at individual points, so estimates of point values based on splittings are extremely uncertain. Functionals that measure distributed 'smooth' properties are, in general, better constrained than estimates of the rotation at a point. For example, the uncertainties in estimated differences of average rotation between adjacent blocks of about 0.001 solar volumes across the base of the convective zone are much smaller, and one of several estimated differences we compute appears significant at the 95% level.

Search for new long-lived particles at s = 13  TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.

A search for long-lived particles was performed with data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.6 fb -1 collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the CMS experiment in 2015. The analysis exploits two customized topological trigger algorithms, and uses the multiplicity of displaced jets to search for the presence of a signal decay occurring at distances between 1 and 1000 mm. The results can be interpreted in a variety of different models. For pair-produced long-lived particles decaying to two b quarks and two leptons with equal decay rates between lepton flavors, cross sections larger than 2.5 fbmore » are excluded for proper decay lengths between 70–100 mm for a long-lived particle mass of 1130 GeV at 95% confidence. For a specific model of pair-produced, long-lived top squarks with R-parity violating decays to a b quark and a lepton, masses below 550–1130 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence for equal branching fractions between lepton flavors, depending on the squark decay length. This mass bound is the most stringent to date for top squark proper decay lengths greater than 3 mm.« less

Search for new long-lived particles at s = 13  TeV

DOE PAGES

Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; ...

2018-03-14

A search for long-lived particles was performed with data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.6 fb -1 collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the CMS experiment in 2015. The analysis exploits two customized topological trigger algorithms, and uses the multiplicity of displaced jets to search for the presence of a signal decay occurring at distances between 1 and 1000 mm. The results can be interpreted in a variety of different models. For pair-produced long-lived particles decaying to two b quarks and two leptons with equal decay rates between lepton flavors, cross sections larger than 2.5 fbmore » are excluded for proper decay lengths between 70–100 mm for a long-lived particle mass of 1130 GeV at 95% confidence. For a specific model of pair-produced, long-lived top squarks with R-parity violating decays to a b quark and a lepton, masses below 550–1130 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence for equal branching fractions between lepton flavors, depending on the squark decay length. This mass bound is the most stringent to date for top squark proper decay lengths greater than 3 mm.« less

Biodegradation kinetics for pesticide exposure assessment.

PubMed

Wolt, J D; Nelson, H P; Cleveland, C B; van Wesenbeeck, I J

2001-01-01

Understanding pesticide risks requires characterizing pesticide exposure within the environment in a manner that can be broadly generalized across widely varied conditions of use. The coupled processes of sorption and soil degradation are especially important for understanding the potential environmental exposure of pesticides. The data obtained from degradation studies are inherently variable and, when limited in extent, lend uncertainty to exposure characterization and risk assessment. Pesticide decline in soils reflects dynamically coupled processes of sorption and degradation that add complexity to the treatment of soil biodegradation data from a kinetic perspective. Additional complexity arises from study design limitations that may not fully account for the decline in microbial activity of test systems, or that may be inadequate for considerations of all potential dissipation routes for a given pesticide. Accordingly, kinetic treatment of data must accommodate a variety of differing approaches starting with very simple assumptions as to reaction dynamics and extending to more involved treatments if warranted by the available experimental data. Selection of the appropriate kinetic model to describe pesticide degradation should rely on statistical evaluation of the data fit to ensure that the models used are not overparameterized. Recognizing the effects of experimental conditions and methods for kinetic treatment of degradation data is critical for making appropriate comparisons among pesticide biodegradation data sets. Assessment of variability in soil half-life among soils is uncertain because for many pesticides the data on soil degradation rate are limited to one or two soils. Reasonable upper-bound estimates of soil half-life are necessary in risk assessment so that estimated environmental concentrations can be developed from exposure models. Thus, an understanding of the variable and uncertain distribution of soil half-lives in the environment is necessary to estimate bounding values. Statistical evaluation of measures of central tendency for multisoil kinetic studies shows that geometric means better represent the distribution in soil half-lives than do the arithmetic or harmonic means. Estimates of upper-bound soil half-life values based on the upper 90% confidence bound on the geometric mean tend to accurately represent the upper bound when pesticide degradation rate is biologically driven but appear to overestimate the upper bound when there is extensive coupling of biodegradation with sorptive processes. The limited data available comparing distribution in pesticide soil half-lives between multisoil laboratory studies and multilocation field studies suggest that the probability density functions are similar. Thus, upper-bound estimates of pesticide half-life determined from laboratory studies conservatively represent pesticide biodegradation in the field environment for the purposes of exposure and risk assessment. International guidelines and approaches used for interpretations of soil biodegradation reflect many common elements, but differ in how the source and nature of variability in soil kinetic data are considered. Harmonization of approaches for the use of soil biodegradation data will improve the interpretative power of these data for the purposes of exposure and risk assessment.

Estimating earthquake location and magnitude from seismic intensity data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakun, W.H.; Wentworth, C.M.

1997-01-01

Analysis of Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) observations for a training set of 22 California earthquakes suggests a strategy for bounding the epicentral region and moment magnitude M from MMI observations only. We define an intensity magnitude MI that is calibrated to be equal in the mean to M. MI = mean (Mi), where Mi = (MMIi + 3.29 + 0.0206 * ??i)/1.68 and ??i is the epicentral distance (km) of observation MMIi. The epicentral region is bounded by contours of rms [MI] = rms (MI - Mi) - rms0 (MI - Mi-), where rms is the root mean square, rms0 (MI - Mi) is the minimum rms over a grid of assumed epicenters, and empirical site corrections and a distance weighting function are used. Empirical contour values for bounding the epicenter location and empirical bounds for M estimated from MI appropriate for different levels of confidence and different quantities of intensity observations are tabulated. The epicentral region bounds and MI obtained for an independent test set of western California earthquakes are consistent with the instrumental epicenters and moment magnitudes of these earthquakes. The analysis strategy is particularly appropriate for the evaluation of pre-1900 earthquakes for which the only available data are a sparse set of intensity observations.

Search for the Higgs Boson in the H→WW→lνjj Decay Channel in pp Collisions at √s=7 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2011-11-30

A search for a Higgs boson has been performed in the H→WW→lνjj channel in 1.04 fb⁻¹ of pp collision data at √s=7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess of events is observed over the expected background and limits on the Higgs boson production cross section are derived for a Higgs boson mass in the range 240 GeVH=400 GeV, where the 95% confidence level upper bound on the cross section for H→WW production is 3.1 pb, or 2.7 times the standard model prediction.

Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect from the cross correlation of WMAP 3year and the NRAO VLA sky survey data: New results and constraints on dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrobon, Davide; Balbi, Amedeo; Marinucci, Domenico

2006-08-01

We cross correlate the new 3 year Wilkinson Microwave Anistropy Probe (WMAP) cosmic microwave background data with the NRAO VLA Sky Survey radio galaxy data and find further evidence of late integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect taking place at late times in cosmic history. Our detection makes use of a novel statistical method (P. Baldi, G. Kerkyacharian, D. Marinucci, and D. Picard, math.ST/0606154 and P. Baldi, G. Kerkyacharian, D. Marinucci, D. Picard, math.ST/0606599) based on a new construction of spherical wavelets, called needlets. The null hypothesis (no ISW) is excluded at more than 99.7% confidence. When we compare the measured cross correlation with the theoretical predictions of standard, flat cosmological models with a generalized dark energy component parameterized by its density, ΩDE, equation of state w and speed of sound cs2, we find 0.3≤ΩDE≤0.8 at 95% C.L., independently of cs2 and w. If dark energy is assumed to be a cosmological constant (w=-1), the bound on density shrinks to 0.41≤ΩDE≤0.79. Models without dark energy are excluded at more than 4σ. The bounds on w depend rather strongly on the assumed value of cs2. We find that models with more negative equation of state (such as phantom models) are a worse fit to the data in the case cs2=1 than in the case cs2=0.

Conditions for Self-Confidence among Boys and Girls Achieving Highly in Chemistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziegler, Albert; Heller, Kurt A.

2000-01-01

Students (N=379) in the 8th grade of German college preparatory schools, prior to formal chemistry instruction, were evaluated for prior knowledge of chemistry, their self-concept regarding chemistry, their gender-bound attitudes toward chemistry, and their fear of chemistry. Findings indicated that girls already expressed significantly lower…

A Comparison of Two Tests for the Significance of a Mean Vector.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-01-01

rejected as soon as a component test in the sequence shows significance . It is well. known (3’. Roy 1958; Roy, Gnanadesikan and Srivastava 1971 (p...confidence bounds ” , Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 29, 491—503. (14] Roy, S.N., Gnanadesikan , R., and Srivastava, J.N. (1971). Analysis and

Effects of atomoxetine on the QT interval in healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizers

PubMed Central

Loghin, Corina; Haber, Harry; Beasley, Charles M; Kothare, Prajakti A; Kauffman, Lynnette; April, John; Jin, Ling; Allen, Albert J; Mitchell, Malcolm I

2013-01-01

Aim The effects of atomoxetine (20 and 60 mg twice daily), 400 mg moxifloxacin and placebo on QTc in 131 healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizer males were compared. Methods Atomoxetine doses were selected to result in plasma concentrations that approximated expected plasma concentrations at both the maximum recommended dose and at a supratherapeutic dose in CYP2D6 extensive metabolizers. Ten second electrocardiograms were obtained for time-matched baseline on days −2 and −1, three time points after dosing on day 1 for moxifloxacin and five time points on day 7 for atomoxetine and placebo. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline model-corrected QT (QTcM) on day 7 was the primary endpoint. Results QTcM differences for atomoxetine 20 and 60 mg twice daily were 0.5 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 2.2 ms) and 4.2 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 6.0 ms), respectively. As plasma concentration of atomoxetine increased, a statistically significant increase in QTc was observed. The moxifloxacin difference from placebo met the a priori definition of non-inferiority. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline QTcM for moxifloxacin was 4.8 ms and this difference was statistically significant. Moxifloxacin plasma concentrations were below the concentrations expected from the literature. However, the slope of the plasma concentration−QTc change observed was consistent with the literature. Conclusion Atomoxetine was not associated with a clinically significant change in QTc. However, a statistically significant increase in QTc was associated with increasing plasma concentrations. PMID:22803597

Probing dark energy with braneworld cosmology in the light of recent cosmological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Aspeitia, Miguel A.; Magaña, Juan; Hernández-Almada, A.; Motta, V.

We investigate a brane model based on Randall-Sundrum scenarios with a generic dark energy component. The latter drives the accelerated expansion at late-times of the universe. In this scheme, extra terms are added into Einstein Field equations that are propagated to the Friedmann equations. To constrain the dark energy equation-of-state (EoS) and the brane tension we use observational data with different energy levels (Supernovae Type Ia, H(z), baryon acoustic oscillations, and cosmic microwave background radiation distance, and a joint analysis) in a background cosmology. Beside EoS being consistent with a cosmological constant at the 3σ confidence level for each dataset, the baryon acoustic oscillations probe favors an EoS consistent with a quintessence dark energy. Although we found different lower limit bounds on the brane tension for each dataset, being the most restricted for CMB, there is not enough evidence of modifications in the cosmological evolution of the universe by the existence of an extra dimension within observational uncertainties. Nevertheless, these new bounds are complementary to those obtained by other probes like table-top experiments, Big Bang Nucleosynthesis, and stellar dynamics. Our results show that a further test of the braneworld model with appropriate correction terms or a profound analysis with perturbations, may be needed to improve the constraints provided by the current data.

ON COMPUTING UPPER LIMITS TO SOURCE INTENSITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Van Dyk, David A.

2010-08-10

A common problem in astrophysics is determining how bright a source could be and still not be detected in an observation. Despite the simplicity with which the problem can be stated, the solution involves complicated statistical issues that require careful analysis. In contrast to the more familiar confidence bound, this concept has never been formally analyzed, leading to a great variety of often ad hoc solutions. Here we formulate and describe the problem in a self-consistent manner. Detection significance is usually defined by the acceptable proportion of false positives (background fluctuations that are claimed as detections, or Type I error),more » and we invoke the complementary concept of false negatives (real sources that go undetected, or Type II error), based on the statistical power of a test, to compute an upper limit to the detectable source intensity. To determine the minimum intensity that a source must have for it to be detected, we first define a detection threshold and then compute the probabilities of detecting sources of various intensities at the given threshold. The intensity that corresponds to the specified Type II error probability defines that minimum intensity and is identified as the upper limit. Thus, an upper limit is a characteristic of the detection procedure rather than the strength of any particular source. It should not be confused with confidence intervals or other estimates of source intensity. This is particularly important given the large number of catalogs that are being generated from increasingly sensitive surveys. We discuss, with examples, the differences between these upper limits and confidence bounds. Both measures are useful quantities that should be reported in order to extract the most science from catalogs, though they answer different statistical questions: an upper bound describes an inference range on the source intensity, while an upper limit calibrates the detection process. We provide a recipe for computing upper limits that applies to all detection algorithms.« less

ARE THE ULTRA-FAINT DWARF GALAXIES JUST CUSPS?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zolotov, Adi; Hogg, David W.; Willman, Beth, E-mail: az481@nyu.edu

2011-01-20

We develop a technique to investigate the possibility that some of the recently discovered ultra-faint dwarf satellites of the Milky Way might be cusp caustics rather than gravitationally self-bound systems. Such cusps can form when a stream of stars folds, creating a region where the projected two-dimensional surface density is enhanced. In this work, we construct a Poisson maximum likelihood test to compare the cusp and exponential models of any substructure on an equal footing. We apply the test to the Hercules dwarf (d {approx} 113 kpc, M{sub V} {approx} -6.2, e {approx} 0.67). The flattened exponential model is stronglymore » favored over the cusp model in the case of Hercules, ruling out at high confidence that Hercules is a cusp catastrophe. This test can be applied to any of the Milky Way dwarfs, and more generally to the entire stellar halo population, to search for the cusp catastrophes that might be expected in an accreted stellar halo.« less

No tension between assembly models of super massive black hole binaries and pulsar observations.

PubMed

Middleton, Hannah; Chen, Siyuan; Del Pozzo, Walter; Sesana, Alberto; Vecchio, Alberto

2018-02-08

Pulsar timing arrays are presently the only means to search for the gravitational wave stochastic background from super massive black hole binary populations, considered to be within the grasp of current or near-future observations. The stringent upper limit from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array has been interpreted as excluding (>90% confidence) the current paradigm of binary assembly through galaxy mergers and hardening via stellar interaction, suggesting evolution is accelerated or stalled. Using Bayesian hierarchical modelling we consider implications of this upper limit for a range of astrophysical scenarios, without invoking stalling, nor more exotic physical processes. All scenarios are fully consistent with the upper limit, but (weak) bounds on population parameters can be inferred. Recent upward revisions of the black hole-galaxy bulge mass relation are disfavoured at 1.6σ against lighter models. Once sensitivity improves by an order of magnitude, a non-detection will disfavour the most optimistic scenarios at 3.9σ.

Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

2015-03-19

This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switchingmore » out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.« less

A probabilistic framework for single-sensor acoustic emission source localization in thin metallic plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimkhanlou, Arvin; Salamone, Salvatore

2017-09-01

Tracking edge-reflected acoustic emission (AE) waves can allow the localization of their sources. Specifically, in bounded isotropic plate structures, only one sensor may be used to perform these source localizations. The primary goal of this paper is to develop a three-step probabilistic framework to quantify the uncertainties associated with such single-sensor localizations. According to this framework, a probabilistic approach is first used to estimate the direct distances between AE sources and the sensor. Then, an analytical model is used to reconstruct the envelope of edge-reflected AE signals based on the source-to-sensor distance estimations and their first arrivals. Finally, the correlation between the probabilistically reconstructed envelopes and recorded AE signals are used to estimate confidence contours for the location of AE sources. To validate the proposed framework, Hsu-Nielsen pencil lead break (PLB) tests were performed on the surface as well as the edges of an aluminum plate. The localization results show that the estimated confidence contours surround the actual source locations. In addition, the performance of the framework was tested in a noisy environment simulated by two dummy transducers and an arbitrary wave generator. The results show that in low-noise environments, the shape and size of the confidence contours depend on the sources and their locations. However, at highly noisy environments, the size of the confidence contours monotonically increases with the noise floor. Such probabilistic results suggest that the proposed probabilistic framework could thus provide more comprehensive information regarding the location of AE sources.

Uncertainty analysis for absorbed dose from a brain receptor imaging agent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aydogan, B.; Miller, L.F.; Sparks, R.B.

Absorbed dose estimates are known to contain uncertainties. A recent literature search indicates that prior to this study no rigorous investigation of uncertainty associated with absorbed dose has been undertaken. A method of uncertainty analysis for absorbed dose calculations has been developed and implemented for the brain receptor imaging agent {sup 123}I-IPT. The two major sources of uncertainty considered were the uncertainty associated with the determination of residence time and that associated with the determination of the S values. There are many sources of uncertainty in the determination of the S values, but only the inter-patient organ mass variation wasmore » considered in this work. The absorbed dose uncertainties were determined for lung, liver, heart and brain. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals of the organ absorbed dose distributions for each patient and for a seven-patient population group were determined by the ``Latin Hypercube Sampling`` method. For an individual patient, the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the absorbed dose was found to be about 2.5 times larger than the estimated mean absorbed dose. For the seven-patient population the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the absorbed dose distribution was around 45% more than the estimated population mean. For example, the 95% confidence interval of the population liver dose distribution was found to be between 1.49E+0.7 Gy/MBq and 4.65E+07 Gy/MBq with a mean of 2.52E+07 Gy/MBq. This study concluded that patients in a population receiving {sup 123}I-IPT could receive absorbed doses as much as twice as large as the standard estimated absorbed dose due to these uncertainties.« less

Robust Bounded Influence Tests in Linear Models

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-01

sensitivity analysis and bounded influence estimation. In: Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J.B. Ramsey (eds.) Academic Press, New York...1R’OBUST bOUNDED INFLUENCE TESTS IN LINEA’ MODELS and( I’homas P. [lettmansperger* Tim [PennsylvanLa State UJniversity A M i0d fix pu111 rsos.p JJ 1 0...November 1988 ROBUST BOUNDED INFLUENCE TESTS IN LINEAR MODELS Marianthi Markatou The University of Iowa and Thomas P. Hettmansperger* The Pennsylvania

Rate of convergence of k-step Newton estimators to efficient likelihood estimators

Treesearch

Steve Verrill

2007-01-01

We make use of Cramer conditions together with the well-known local quadratic convergence of Newton?s method to establish the asymptotic closeness of k-step Newton estimators to efficient likelihood estimators. In Verrill and Johnson [2007. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation. USDA Forest Products Laboratory Research...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cote, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Oshea, Brian W.

Here we use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number ofmore » SNe Ia per M ⊙ formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.« less

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) Representation in Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML)

PubMed Central

Lechevalier, D.; Ak, R.; Ferguson, M.; Law, K. H.; Lee, Y.-T. T.; Rachuri, S.

2017-01-01

This paper describes Gaussian process regression (GPR) models presented in predictive model markup language (PMML). PMML is an extensible-markup-language (XML) -based standard language used to represent data-mining and predictive analytic models, as well as pre- and post-processed data. The previous PMML version, PMML 4.2, did not provide capabilities for representing probabilistic (stochastic) machine-learning algorithms that are widely used for constructing predictive models taking the associated uncertainties into consideration. The newly released PMML version 4.3, which includes the GPR model, provides new features: confidence bounds and distribution for the predictive estimations. Both features are needed to establish the foundation for uncertainty quantification analysis. Among various probabilistic machine-learning algorithms, GPR has been widely used for approximating a target function because of its capability of representing complex input and output relationships without predefining a set of basis functions, and predicting a target output with uncertainty quantification. GPR is being employed to various manufacturing data-analytics applications, which necessitates representing this model in a standardized form for easy and rapid employment. In this paper, we present a GPR model and its representation in PMML. Furthermore, we demonstrate a prototype using a real data set in the manufacturing domain. PMID:29202125

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) Representation in Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML).

PubMed

Park, J; Lechevalier, D; Ak, R; Ferguson, M; Law, K H; Lee, Y-T T; Rachuri, S

2017-01-01

This paper describes Gaussian process regression (GPR) models presented in predictive model markup language (PMML). PMML is an extensible-markup-language (XML) -based standard language used to represent data-mining and predictive analytic models, as well as pre- and post-processed data. The previous PMML version, PMML 4.2, did not provide capabilities for representing probabilistic (stochastic) machine-learning algorithms that are widely used for constructing predictive models taking the associated uncertainties into consideration. The newly released PMML version 4.3, which includes the GPR model, provides new features: confidence bounds and distribution for the predictive estimations. Both features are needed to establish the foundation for uncertainty quantification analysis. Among various probabilistic machine-learning algorithms, GPR has been widely used for approximating a target function because of its capability of representing complex input and output relationships without predefining a set of basis functions, and predicting a target output with uncertainty quantification. GPR is being employed to various manufacturing data-analytics applications, which necessitates representing this model in a standardized form for easy and rapid employment. In this paper, we present a GPR model and its representation in PMML. Furthermore, we demonstrate a prototype using a real data set in the manufacturing domain.

Impacts of the driver's bounded rationality on the traffic running cost under the car-following model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Luo, Xiao-Feng; Liu, Kai

2016-09-01

The driver's bounded rationality has significant influences on the micro driving behavior and researchers proposed some traffic flow models with the driver's bounded rationality. However, little effort has been made to explore the effects of the driver's bounded rationality on the trip cost. In this paper, we use our recently proposed car-following model to study the effects of the driver's bounded rationality on his running cost and the system's total cost under three traffic running costs. The numerical results show that considering the driver's bounded rationality will enhance his each running cost and the system's total cost under the three traffic running costs.

Direct bound on the total decay width of the top quark in pp collisions at sqrt[s]=1.96 TeV.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Adelman, J; Akimoto, T; Albrow, M G; Alvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Ashmanskas, W; Attal, A; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Azzurri, P; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Bartsch, V; Bauer, G; Beauchemin, P-H; Bedeschi, F; Bednar, P; Beecher, D; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Beringer, J; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Blair, R E; Blocker, C; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Boisvert, V; Bolla, G; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Bridgeman, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brubaker, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Byrum, K L; Cabrera, S; Calancha, C; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chang, S H; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chou, J P; Choudalakis, G; Chuang, S H; Chung, K; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciobanu, C I; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clark, D; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Copic, K; Cordelli, M; Cortiana, G; Cox, D J; Crescioli, F; Cuenca Almenar, C; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Cully, J C; Dagenhart, D; Datta, M; Davies, T; de Barbaro, P; De Cecco, S; Deisher, A; De Lorenzo, G; Dell'orso, M; Deluca, C; Demortier, L; Deng, J; Deninno, M; Derwent, P F; di Giovanni, G P; Dionisi, C; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Donini, J; Dorigo, T; Dube, S; Efron, J; Elagin, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, D; Errede, S; Eusebi, R; Fang, H C; Farrington, S; Fedorko, W T; Feild, R G; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Ferrazza, C; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Galyardt, J; Garberson, F; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Genser, K; Gerberich, H; Gerdes, D; Gessler, A; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Gimmell, J L; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giordani, M; Giromini, P; Giunta, M; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Gresele, A; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Grundler, U; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Gunay-Unalan, Z; Haber, C; Hahn, K; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Han, B-Y; Han, J Y; Handler, R; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harper, S; Harr, R F; Harris, R M; Hartz, M; Hatakeyama, K; Hauser, J; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heijboer, A; Heinemann, B; Heinrich, J; Henderson, C; Herndon, M; Heuser, J; Hewamanage, S; Hidas, D; Hill, C S; Hirschbuehl, D; Hocker, A; Hou, S; Houlden, M; Hsu, S-C; Huffman, B T; Hughes, R E; Husemann, U; Huston, J; Incandela, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; James, E; Jayatilaka, B; Jeon, E J; Jha, M K; Jindariani, S; Johnson, W; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Jung, J E; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Kar, D; Karchin, P E; Kato, Y; Kephart, R; Keung, J; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kimura, N; Kirsch, L; Klimenko, S; Knuteson, B; Ko, B R; Koay, S A; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotwal, A V; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krop, D; Krumnack, N; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kubo, T; Kuhr, T; Kulkarni, N P; Kurata, M; Kusakabe, Y; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lazzizzera, I; Lecompte, T; Lee, E; Lee, H S; Lee, S W; Leone, S; Lewis, J D; Lin, C S; Linacre, J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, C; Liu, T; Lockyer, N S; Loginov, A; Loreti, M; Lovas, L; Lu, R-S; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Luci, C; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lyons, L; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Lytken, E; Mack, P; Macqueen, D; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Makhoul, K; Maki, T; Maksimovic, P; Malde, S; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Marino, C P; Martin, A; Martin, V; Martínez, M; Martínez-Ballarín, R; Maruyama, T; Mastrandrea, P; Masubuchi, T; Mattson, M E; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Menzione, A; Merkel, P; Mesropian, C; Miao, T; Miladinovic, N; Miller, R; Mills, C; Milnik, M; Mitra, A; Mitselmakher, G; Miyake, H; Moggi, N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M J; Morlok, J; Movilla Fernandez, P; Mülmenstädt, J; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Mumford, R; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Nagano, A; Naganoma, J; Nakamura, K; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Necula, V; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Norman, M; Norniella, O; Nurse, E; Oakes, L; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Orava, R; Osterberg, K; Pagan Griso, S; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Papaikonomou, A; Paramonov, A A; Parks, B; Pashapour, S; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Pianori, E; Pinera, L; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Poukhov, O; Pounder, N; Prakoshyn, F; Pronko, A; Proudfoot, J; Ptohos, F; Pueschel, E; Punzi, G; Pursley, J; Rademacker, J; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Reisert, B; Rekovic, V; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Richter, S; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rodriguez, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Rossi, M; Rossin, R; Roy, P; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Saarikko, H; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Saltó, O; Santi, L; Sarkar, S; Sartori, L; Sato, K; Savoy-Navarro, A; Scheidle, T; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, A; Schmidt, E E; Schmidt, M A; Schmidt, M P; Schmitt, M; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scott, A L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Sedov, A; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sexton-Kennedy, L; Sfyrla, A; Shalhout, S Z; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Sherman, D; Shimojima, M; Shiraishi, S; Shochet, M; Shon, Y; Shreyber, I; Sidoti, A; Sinervo, P; Sisakyan, A; Slaughter, A J; Slaunwhite, J; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Snihur, R; Soha, A; Somalwar, S; Sorin, V; Spalding, J; Spreitzer, T; Squillacioti, P; Stanitzki, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Stuart, D; Suh, J S; Sukhanov, A; Suslov, I; Suzuki, T; Taffard, A; Takashima, R; Takeuchi, Y; Tanaka, R; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Terashi, K; Thom, J; Thompson, A S; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Tipton, P; Tiwari, V; Tkaczyk, S; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Totaro, P; Tourneur, S; Tu, Y; Turini, N; Ukegawa, F; Vallecorsa, S; van Remortel, N; Varganov, A; Vataga, E; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Veszpremi, V; Vidal, M; Vidal, R; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vine, T; Vogel, M; Volobouev, I; Volpi, G; Würthwein, F; Wagner, P; Wagner, R G; Wagner, R L; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Wagner, W; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Weinberger, M; Wester, W C; Whitehouse, B; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Williams, G; Williams, H H; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, C; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wynne, S M; Xie, S; Yagil, A; Yamamoto, K; Yamaoka, J; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W M; Yeh, G P; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanello, L; Zanetti, A; Zaw, I; Zhang, X; Zheng, Y; Zucchelli, S

2009-01-30

We present the first direct experimental bound on the total decay width of the top quark, Gamma(t), using 955 pb(-1) of the Tevatron's pp collisions recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We identify 253 top-antitop pair candidate events. The distribution of reconstructed top quark mass from these events is fitted to templates representing different values of the top quark width. Using a confidence interval based on likelihood-ratio ordering, we extract an upper limit at 95% C.L. of Gamma(t)<13.1 GeV for an assumed top quark mass of 175 GeV/c(2).

Limits on Log Cross-Product Ratios for Item Response Models. Research Report. ETS RR-06-10

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haberman, Shelby J.; Holland, Paul W.; Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bounds are established for log cross-product ratios (log odds ratios) involving pairs of items for item response models. First, expressions for bounds on log cross-product ratios are provided for unidimensional item response models in general. Then, explicit bounds are obtained for the Rasch model and the two-parameter logistic (2PL) model.…

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landman, Drew; Toro, Kenneth G.; Commo, Sean A.; Lynn, Keith C.

2014-01-01

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Proactive Security Testing and Fuzzing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takanen, Ari

Software is bound to have security critical flaws, and no testing or code auditing can ensure that software is flaw-less. But software security testing requirements have improved radically during the past years, largely due to criticism from security conscious consumers and Enterprise customers. Whereas in the past, security flaws were taken for granted (and patches were quietly and humbly installed), they now are probably one of the most common reasons why people switch vendors or software providers. The maintenance costs from security updates often add to become one of the biggest cost items to large Enterprise users. Fortunately test automation techniques have also improved. Techniques like model-based testing (MBT) enable efficient generation of security tests that reach good confidence levels in discovering zero-day mistakes in software. This technique is called fuzzing.

Damage spreading and opinion dynamics on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortunato, Santo

2005-03-01

We study damage spreading among the opinions of a system of agents, subjected to the dynamics of the Krause-Hegselmann consensus model. The damage consists in a sharp change of the opinion of one or more agents in the initial random opinion configuration, supposedly due to some external factors and/or events. This may help to understand for instance under which conditions special shocking events or targeted propaganda are able to influence the results of elections. For agents lying on the nodes of a Barabási-Albert network, there is a damage spreading transition at a low value εd of the confidence bound parameter. Interestingly, we find as well that there is some critical value εs above which the initial perturbation manages to propagate to all other agents.

Field optimization method of a dual-axis atomic magnetometer based on frequency-response and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Li; Quan, Wei; Fan, Wenfeng; Li, Rujie; Jiang, Liwei; Fang, Jiancheng

2018-05-01

The frequency-response and dynamics of a dual-axis spin-exchange-relaxation-free (SERF) atomic magnetometer are investigated by means of transfer function analysis. The frequency-response at different bias magnetic fields is tested to demonstrate the effect of the residual magnetic field. The resonance frequency of alkali atoms and magnetic linewidth can be obtained simultaneously through our theoretical model. The coefficient of determination of the fitting results is superior to 0.995 with 95% confidence bounds. Additionally, step responses are applied to analyze the dynamics of the control system and the effect of imperfections. Finally, a noise-limited magnetic field resolution of 15 fT {{\\sqrt{Hz}}-1} has been achieved for our dual-axis SERF atomic magnetometer through magnetic field optimization.

Determining X-ray source intensity and confidence bounds in crowded fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Primini, F. A.; Kashyap, V. L., E-mail: fap@head.cfa.harvard.edu

We present a rigorous description of the general problem of aperture photometry in high-energy astrophysics photon-count images, in which the statistical noise model is Poisson, not Gaussian. We compute the full posterior probability density function for the expected source intensity for various cases of interest, including the important cases in which both source and background apertures contain contributions from the source, and when multiple source apertures partially overlap. A Bayesian approach offers the advantages of allowing one to (1) include explicit prior information on source intensities, (2) propagate posterior distributions as priors for future observations, and (3) use Poisson likelihoods,more » making the treatment valid in the low-counts regime. Elements of this approach have been implemented in the Chandra Source Catalog.« less

Bounds on low scale gravity from RICE data and cosmogenic neutrino flux models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Shahid; McKay, Douglas W.

2006-03-01

We explore limits on low scale gravity models set by results from the Radio Ice Cherenkov Experiment's (RICE) ongoing search for cosmic ray neutrinos in the cosmogenic, or GZK, energy range. The bound on M, the fundamental scale of gravity, depends upon cosmogenic flux model, black hole formation and decay treatments, inclusion of graviton mediated elastic neutrino processes, and the number of large extra dimensions, d. Assuming proton-based cosmogenic flux models that cover a broad range of flux possibilities, we find bounds in the interval 0.9 TeV

The inverse power law model for the lifetime of a mylar-polyurethane laminated dc hv insulating structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalkanis, G.; Rosso, E.

1989-09-01

Results of an accelerated test on the lifetime of a mylar-polyurethane laminated dc high voltage insulating structure are reported. This structure consists of mylar ribbons placed side by side in a number of layers, staggered and glued together with a polyurethane adhesive. The lifetime until breakdown as a function of extremely high values of voltage stress is measured and represented by a mathematical model, the inverse power law model with a 2-parameter Weibull lifetime distribution. The statistical treatment of the data — either by graphical or by analytical methods — allowed us to estimate the lifetime distribution and confidence bounds for any required normal voltage stress. The laminated structure under consideration is, according to the analysis, a very reliable dc hv insulating material, with a very good life performance according to the inverse power law model, and with an exponent of voltage stress equal to 6. A large insulator of cylindrical shape with this kind of laminated structure can be constructed by winding helically a mylar ribbon in a number of layers.

An error bound for a discrete reduced order model of a linear multivariable system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Saggaf, Ubaid M.; Franklin, Gene F.

1987-01-01

The design of feasible controllers for high dimension multivariable systems can be greatly aided by a method of model reduction. In order for the design based on the order reduction to include a guarantee of stability, it is sufficient to have a bound on the model error. Previous work has provided such a bound for continuous-time systems for algorithms based on balancing. In this note an L-infinity bound is derived for model error for a method of order reduction of discrete linear multivariable systems based on balancing.

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2015-01-01

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.

Confidence Bounds and Power for the Reliability of Observational Measures on the Quality of a Social Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Yongyun; Raudenbush, Stephen W.

2012-01-01

Social scientists are frequently interested in assessing the qualities of social settings such as classrooms, schools, neighborhoods, or day care centers. The most common procedure requires observers to rate social interactions within these settings on multiple items and then to combine the item responses to obtain a summary measure of setting…

When a Group Presentation Isn't Enough: Financial Aid Advising for Low-Income Urban College-Bound Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Venegas, Kristan M.; Hallett, Ronald E.

2008-01-01

Group presentations are an easy way to reach large groups of students and parents at one time. When group presentations are well done, they increase students' and families' knowledge of the financial aid process by providing information and building students' and their families' confidence as they navigate the financial aid process. Unfortunately,…

Simulation techniques for estimating error in the classification of normal patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitsitt, S. J.; Landgrebe, D. A.

1974-01-01

Methods of efficiently generating and classifying samples with specified multivariate normal distributions were discussed. Conservative confidence tables for sample sizes are given for selective sampling. Simulation results are compared with classified training data. Techniques for comparing error and separability measure for two normal patterns are investigated and used to display the relationship between the error and the Chernoff bound.

Outward Bound Outcome Model Validation and Multilevel Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Yuan-Chun

2011-01-01

This study was intended to measure construct validity for the Outward Bound Outcomes Instrument (OBOI) and to predict outcome achievement from individual characteristics and course attributes using multilevel modeling. A sample of 2,340 participants was collected by Outward Bound USA between May and September 2009 using the OBOI. Two phases of…

Annual Cost of U.S. Hospital Visits for Pediatric Abusive Head Trauma.

PubMed

Peterson, Cora; Xu, Likang; Florence, Curtis; Parks, Sharyn E

2015-08-01

We estimated the frequency and direct medical cost from the provider perspective of U.S. hospital visits for pediatric abusive head trauma (AHT). We identified treat-and-release hospital emergency department (ED) visits and admissions for AHT among patients aged 0-4 years in the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample and Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), 2006-2011. We applied cost-to-charge ratios and estimated professional fee ratios from Truven Health MarketScan(®) to estimate per-visit and total population costs of AHT ED visits and admissions. Regression models assessed cost differences associated with selected patient and hospital characteristics. AHT was diagnosed during 6,827 (95% confidence interval [CI] [6,072, 7,582]) ED visits and 12,533 (95% CI [10,395, 14,671]) admissions (28% originating in the same hospital's ED) nationwide over the study period. The average medical cost per ED visit and admission were US$2,612 (error bound: 1,644-3,581) and US$31,901 (error bound: 29,266-34,536), respectively (2012 USD). The average total annual nationwide medical cost of AHT hospital visits was US$69.6 million (error bound: 56.9-82.3 million) over the study period. Factors associated with higher per-visit costs included patient age <1 year, males, coexisting chronic conditions, discharge to another facility, death, higher household income, public insurance payer, hospital trauma level, and teaching hospitals in urban locations. Study findings emphasize the importance of focused interventions to reduce this type of high-cost child abuse. © The Author(s) 2015.

Dependence in probabilistic modeling Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferson, Scott; Nelsen, Roger B.; Hajagos, Janos

2015-05-01

This report summarizes methods to incorporate information (or lack of information) about inter-variable dependence into risk assessments that use Dempster-Shafer theory or probability bounds analysis to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. The report reviews techniques for simulating correlated variates for a given correlation measure and dependence model, computation of bounds on distribution functions under a specified dependence model, formulation of parametric and empirical dependence models, and bounding approaches that can be used when information about the intervariable dependence is incomplete. The report also reviews several of the most pervasive and dangerous myths among risk analysts about dependence in probabilistic models.

Effect of oral calcium disodium EDTA on iron absorption in a human model of iron overdose.

PubMed

Matteucci, Michael J; Habibe, Michael; Robson, Kristie; Baldassano, Accursia A; Riffenburgh, Robert H; Tanen, David A

2006-01-01

Anecdotal case reports and animal models have suggested that the administration of CaNa2EDTA (EDTA) may be effective in reducing the absorption of iron after an oral iron overdose. We designed this study to determine the effect of orally administrated EDTA with or without activated charcoal (AC) on iron absorption after a mild iron ingestion in healthy human volunteers. A randomized, crossover study was conducted in eight healthy human volunteers. All subjects ingested 5 mg/kg of elemental iron in the form of ferrous sulfate. One hour post ingestion, subjects were randomized to receive 35 mg/kg EDTA, EDTA plus 50 grams of AC, or water. Serial iron levels were obtained at baseline and every hour for the first 6 hours, then at 8, 12, and 24 hours. A 2-week washout was used between study arms. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used for the following comparisons between treatment groups: baseline serum iron levels, area under time-concentration curves (AUCs) from baseline to 12 hours and baseline to 24 hours, and peak iron levels. Baseline serum iron levels did not differ among the three treatment groups (p = 0.844). AUCs were not different among groups (p = 0.746 for 12 hr, p = 0.925 for 24 hr). AUC medians (with 95% binomial confidence bounds) for control, EDTA, EDTA + AC groups, respectively, for 12 hr were: 2813 (2298, 3561), 2570 (1669, 3476), and 2654 (2125, 3600); and for 24 hr were: 4083 (3488,5314), 4139 (2666, 5547), and 4274 (3336, 5577). Peak serum iron levels did not differ among treatment groups (p = 0.481). Peak iron level medians in microg/dL (with 95% binomial confidence bounds) were for control: 329 (253, 382), for EDTA: 271 (184, 375), and for EDTA + AC: 285 (229, 352). Orally administered EDTA did not significantly reduce iron absorption when administered 1 hour post iron ingestion during the 12 or 24-hour period following the ingestion of 5 mg/kg of elemental iron in healthy human volunteers.

Flight Test Results of a GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Output-Error Optimization for a Light Twin-Engine Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martos, Borja; Kiszely, Paul; Foster, John V.

2011-01-01

As part of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), a novel pitot-static calibration method was developed to allow rapid in-flight calibration for subscale aircraft while flying within confined test areas. This approach uses Global Positioning System (GPS) technology coupled with modern system identification methods that rapidly computes optimal pressure error models over a range of airspeed with defined confidence bounds. This method has been demonstrated in subscale flight tests and has shown small 2- error bounds with significant reduction in test time compared to other methods. The current research was motivated by the desire to further evaluate and develop this method for full-scale aircraft. A goal of this research was to develop an accurate calibration method that enables reductions in test equipment and flight time, thus reducing costs. The approach involved analysis of data acquisition requirements, development of efficient flight patterns, and analysis of pressure error models based on system identification methods. Flight tests were conducted at The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) utilizing an instrumented Piper Navajo research aircraft. In addition, the UTSI engineering flight simulator was used to investigate test maneuver requirements and handling qualities issues associated with this technique. This paper provides a summary of piloted simulation and flight test results that illustrates the performance and capabilities of the NASA calibration method. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data analysis methods is included as well as recommendations for piloting technique.

The mRNA-bound proteome of the early fly embryo

PubMed Central

Wessels, Hans-Hermann; Imami, Koshi; Baltz, Alexander G.; Kolinski, Marcin; Beldovskaya, Anastasia; Selbach, Matthias; Small, Stephen; Ohler, Uwe; Landthaler, Markus

2016-01-01

Early embryogenesis is characterized by the maternal to zygotic transition (MZT), in which maternally deposited messenger RNAs are degraded while zygotic transcription begins. Before the MZT, post-transcriptional gene regulation by RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) is the dominant force in embryo patterning. We used two mRNA interactome capture methods to identify RBPs bound to polyadenylated transcripts within the first 2 h of Drosophila melanogaster embryogenesis. We identified a high-confidence set of 476 putative RBPs and confirmed RNA-binding activities for most of 24 tested candidates. Most proteins in the interactome are known RBPs or harbor canonical RBP features, but 99 exhibited previously uncharacterized RNA-binding activity. mRNA-bound RBPs and TFs exhibit distinct expression dynamics, in which the newly identified RBPs dominate the first 2 h of embryonic development. Integrating our resource with in situ hybridization data from existing databases showed that mRNAs encoding RBPs are enriched in posterior regions of the early embryo, suggesting their general importance in posterior patterning and germ cell maturation. PMID:27197210

Overconfidence across the psychosis continuum: a calibration approach.

PubMed

Balzan, Ryan P; Woodward, Todd S; Delfabbro, Paul; Moritz, Steffen

2016-11-01

An 'overconfidence in errors' bias has been consistently observed in people with schizophrenia relative to healthy controls, however, the bias is seldom found to be associated with delusional ideation. Using a more precise confidence-accuracy calibration measure of overconfidence, the present study aimed to explore whether the overconfidence bias is greater in people with higher delusional ideation. A sample of 25 participants with schizophrenia and 50 non-clinical controls (25 high- and 25 low-delusion-prone) completed 30 difficult trivia questions (accuracy <75%); 15 'half-scale' items required participants to indicate their level of confidence for accuracy, and the remaining 'confidence-range' items asked participants to provide lower/upper bounds in which they were 80% confident the true answer lay within. There was a trend towards higher overconfidence for half-scale items in the schizophrenia and high-delusion-prone groups, which reached statistical significance for confidence-range items. However, accuracy was particularly low in the two delusional groups and a significant negative correlation between clinical delusional scores and overconfidence was observed for half-scale items within the schizophrenia group. Evidence in support of an association between overconfidence and delusional ideation was therefore mixed. Inflated confidence-accuracy miscalibration for the two delusional groups may be better explained by their greater unawareness of their underperformance, rather than representing genuinely inflated overconfidence in errors.

Using Stochastic Approximation Techniques to Efficiently Construct Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

PubMed

Schweiger, Regev; Fisher, Eyal; Rahmani, Elior; Shenhav, Liat; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

2018-06-22

Estimation of heritability is an important task in genetics. The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) to determine narrow-sense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability and related quantities has received much recent attention, due of its ability to account for variants with small effect sizes. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. The common way to report the uncertainty in REML estimation uses standard errors (SEs), which rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, for larger data sets (e.g., tens of thousands of individuals), the construction of SEs itself may require considerable time, as it requires expensive matrix inversions and multiplications. Here, we present FIESTA (Fast confidence IntErvals using STochastic Approximation), a method for constructing accurate CIs. FIESTA is based on parametric bootstrap sampling, and, therefore, avoids unjustified assumptions on the distribution of the heritability estimator. FIESTA uses stochastic approximation techniques, which accelerate the construction of CIs by several orders of magnitude, compared with previous approaches as well as to the analytical approximation used by SEs. FIESTA builds accurate CIs rapidly, for example, requiring only several seconds for data sets of tens of thousands of individuals, making FIESTA a very fast solution to the problem of building accurate CIs for heritability for all data set sizes.

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.

Health risk characterization for resident inhalation exposure to particle-bound halogenated flame retardants in a typical e-waste recycling zone.

PubMed

Luo, Pei; Bao, Lian-Jun; Wu, Feng-Chang; Li, Shao-Meng; Zeng, Eddy Y

2014-01-01

Inhalation of pollutants is an important exposure route for causing human health hazards, and inhalation exposure assessment must take into account particle size distribution because particle-bound pollutants are size-dependent. Such information is scarce, particularly for residents dwelling within e-waste recycling zones where abundant atmospheric halogenated flame retardants (HFRs) commonly used in electronic/electrical devices have been widely reported. Atmospheric size-fractioned particle samples were collected using a 10-stage Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor from an e-waste recycling zone in South China. The deposition efficiencies and fluxes of size-fractioned HFRs including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), alternative brominated flame retardants, and Dechlorane Plus in the human respiratory tract were estimated using the International Commission on Radiological Protection deposition model. The majority of HFRs was found to deposit in the head airways, with coarse particles (aerodynamic diameter (Dp) > 1.8 μm) contributing the most (69-91%). Conversely, fine particles (Dp < 1.8 μm) were dominant in the alveolar region (62-80%). The inhalation intake of PBDEs within the e-waste recycling zone was 44 ng/d (95% confidence interval (CI): 30-65 ng/d), close to those through food consumption in non-e-waste recycling regions. The estimated total hazard quotient of particle-bound HFRs was 5.6 × 10(-4) (95% CI: 3.8 × 10(-4)-8.8 × 10(-4)). In addition, incremental lifetime cancer risk induced by BDE-209 was 1.36 × 10(-10) (95% CI: 7.3 × 10(-11)-2.3 × 10(-10)), much lower than the Safe Acceptable Range (1.0 × 10(-6)-1.0 × 10(-4)) established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. These results indicate that the potential health risk from inhalation exposure to particle-bound HFRs for residents dwelling in the e-waste recycling zone was low.

Parallel constraint satisfaction in memory-based decisions.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Hodges, Sara D

2011-01-01

Three studies sought to investigate decision strategies in memory-based decisions and to test the predictions of the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model for decision making (Glöckner & Betsch, 2008). Time pressure was manipulated and the model was compared against simple heuristics (take the best and equal weight) and a weighted additive strategy. From PCS we predicted that fast intuitive decision making is based on compensatory information integration and that decision time increases and confidence decreases with increasing inconsistency in the decision task. In line with these predictions we observed a predominant usage of compensatory strategies under all time-pressure conditions and even with decision times as short as 1.7 s. For a substantial number of participants, choices and decision times were best explained by PCS, but there was also evidence for use of simple heuristics. The time-pressure manipulation did not significantly affect decision strategies. Overall, the results highlight intuitive, automatic processes in decision making and support the idea that human information-processing capabilities are less severely bounded than often assumed.

Bootstrapping Least Squares Estimates in Biochemical Reaction Networks

PubMed Central

Linder, Daniel F.

2015-01-01

The paper proposes new computational methods of computing confidence bounds for the least squares estimates (LSEs) of rate constants in mass-action biochemical reaction network and stochastic epidemic models. Such LSEs are obtained by fitting the set of deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), corresponding to the large volume limit of a reaction network, to network’s partially observed trajectory treated as a continuous-time, pure jump Markov process. In the large volume limit the LSEs are asymptotically Gaussian, but their limiting covariance structure is complicated since it is described by a set of nonlinear ODEs which are often ill-conditioned and numerically unstable. The current paper considers two bootstrap Monte-Carlo procedures, based on the diffusion and linear noise approximations for pure jump processes, which allow one to avoid solving the limiting covariance ODEs. The results are illustrated with both in-silico and real data examples from the LINE 1 gene retrotranscription model and compared with those obtained using other methods. PMID:25898769

Localized coherence in two interacting populations of social agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Avella, J. C.; Cosenza, M. G.; San Miguel, M.

2014-04-01

We investigate the emergence of localized coherent behavior in systems consisting of two populations of social agents possessing a condition for non-interacting states, mutually coupled through global interaction fields. We employ two examples of such dynamics: (i) Axelrod’s model for social influence, and (ii) a discrete version of a bounded confidence model for opinion formation. In each case, the global interaction fields correspond to the statistical mode of the states of the agents in each population. In both systems we find localized coherent states for some values of parameters, consisting of one population in a homogeneous state and the other in a disordered state. This situation can be considered as a social analogue to a chimera state arising in two interacting populations of oscillators. In addition, other asymptotic collective behaviors appear in both systems depending on parameter values: a common homogeneous state, where both populations reach the same state; different homogeneous states, where both population reach homogeneous states different from each other; and a disordered state, where both populations reach inhomogeneous states.

Lieb-Robinson bounds for spin-boson lattice models and trapped ions.

PubMed

Jünemann, J; Cadarso, A; Pérez-García, D; Bermudez, A; García-Ripoll, J J

2013-12-06

We derive a Lieb-Robinson bound for the propagation of spin correlations in a model of spins interacting through a bosonic lattice field, which satisfies a Lieb-Robinson bound in the absence of spin-boson couplings. We apply these bounds to a system of trapped ions and find that the propagation of spin correlations, as mediated by the phonons of the ion crystal, can be faster than the regimes currently explored in experiments. We propose a scheme to test the bounds by measuring retarded correlation functions via the crystal fluorescence.

Statistical Properties of SEE Rate Calculation in the Limits of Large and Small Event Counts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladbury, Ray

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the Statistical properties of Single Event Effects (SEE) rate calculations. The goal of SEE rate calculation is to bound the SEE rate, though the question is by how much. The presentation covers: (1) Understanding errors on SEE cross sections, (2) Methodology: Maximum Likelihood and confidence Contours, (3) Tests with Simulated data and (4) Applications.

Analysis and application of opinion model with multiple topic interactions.

PubMed

Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Wang, Liang; Wang, Ximeng

2017-08-01

To reveal heterogeneous behaviors of opinion evolution in different scenarios, we propose an opinion model with topic interactions. Individual opinions and topic features are represented by a multidimensional vector. We measure an agent's action towards a specific topic by the product of opinion and topic feature. When pairs of agents interact for a topic, their actions are introduced to opinion updates with bounded confidence. Simulation results show that a transition from a disordered state to a consensus state occurs at a critical point of the tolerance threshold, which depends on the opinion dimension. The critical point increases as the dimension of opinions increases. Multiple topics promote opinion interactions and lead to the formation of macroscopic opinion clusters. In addition, more topics accelerate the evolutionary process and weaken the effect of network topology. We use two sets of large-scale real data to evaluate the model, and the results prove its effectiveness in characterizing a real evolutionary process. Our model achieves high performance in individual action prediction and even outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Meanwhile, our model has much smaller computational complexity. This paper provides a demonstration for possible practical applications of theoretical opinion dynamics.

RCC Plug Repair Thermal Tools for Shuttle Mission Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, Alvaro C.; Anderson, Brian P.

2010-01-01

A thermal math model for the Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) Plug Repair was developed to increase the confidence in the repair entry performance and provide a real-time mission support tool. The thermal response of the plug cover plate, local RCC, and metallic attach hardware can be assessed with this model for any location on the wing leading edge. The geometry and spatial location of the thermal mesh also matches the structural mesh which allows for the direct mapping of temperature loads and computation of the thermoelastic stresses. The thermal model was correlated to a full scale plug repair radiant test. To utilize the thermal model for flight analyses, accurate predictions of protuberance heating were required. Wind tunnel testing was performed at CUBRC to characterize the heat flux in both the radial and angular directions. Due to the complexity of the implementation of the protuberance heating, an intermediate program was developed to output the heating per nodal location for all OML surfaces in SINDA format. Three Design Reference Cases (DRC) were evaluated with the correlated plug thermal math model to bound the environments which the plug repair would potentially be used.

Finite state projection based bounds to compare chemical master equation models using single-cell data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, Zachary; Neuert, Gregor; Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37232

2016-08-21

Emerging techniques now allow for precise quantification of distributions of biological molecules in single cells. These rapidly advancing experimental methods have created a need for more rigorous and efficient modeling tools. Here, we derive new bounds on the likelihood that observations of single-cell, single-molecule responses come from a discrete stochastic model, posed in the form of the chemical master equation. These strict upper and lower bounds are based on a finite state projection approach, and they converge monotonically to the exact likelihood value. These bounds allow one to discriminate rigorously between models and with a minimum level of computational effort.more » In practice, these bounds can be incorporated into stochastic model identification and parameter inference routines, which improve the accuracy and efficiency of endeavors to analyze and predict single-cell behavior. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach using simulated data for three example models as well as for experimental measurements of a time-varying stochastic transcriptional response in yeast.« less

Search for the Higgs boson in the H→WW→lνjj decay channel in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector.

PubMed

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Czirr, H; Czyczula, Z; D'Auria, S; D'Onofrio, M; D'Orazio, A; Da Silva, P V M; Da Via, C; Dabrowski, W; Dai, T; Dallapiccola, C; Dam, M; Dameri, M; Damiani, D S; Danielsson, H O; Dannheim, D; Dao, V; Darbo, G; Darlea, G L; Daum, C; Dauvergne, J P; Davey, W; Davidek, T; Davidson, N; Davidson, R; Davies, E; Davies, M; Davison, A R; Davygora, Y; Dawe, E; Dawson, I; Dawson, J W; Daya, R K; De, K; de Asmundis, R; De Castro, S; De Castro Faria Salgado, P E; De Cecco, S; de Graat, J; De Groot, N; de Jong, P; De la Taille, C; De la Torre, H; De Lotto, B; De Mora, L; De Nooij, L; De Pedis, D; De Salvo, A; De Sanctis, U; De Santo, A; De Vivie de Regie, J B; Dean, S; Debbe, R; Dedovich, D V; Degenhardt, J; Dehchar, M; Del Papa, C; Del Peso, J; Del Prete, T; Deliyergiyev, M; Dell'Acqua, A; Dell'Asta, L; Della Pietra, M; della Volpe, D; Delmastro, M; Delpierre, P; Delruelle, N; Delsart, P A; Deluca, C; Demers, S; Demichev, M; Demirkoz, B; Deng, J; Denisov, S P; Derendarz, D; Derkaoui, J E; Derue, F; 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zur Nedden, M; Zutshi, V; Zwalinski, L

2011-12-02

A search for a Higgs boson has been performed in the H→WW→ℓνjj channel in 1.04 fb(-1) of pp collision data at √s=7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess of events is observed over the expected background and limits on the Higgs boson production cross section are derived for a Higgs boson mass in the range 240 GeV

Eigenspace perturbations for uncertainty estimation of single-point turbulence closures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iaccarino, Gianluca; Mishra, Aashwin Ananda; Ghili, Saman

2017-02-01

Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models represent the workhorse for predicting turbulent flows in complex industrial applications. However, RANS closures introduce a significant degree of epistemic uncertainty in predictions due to the potential lack of validity of the assumptions utilized in model formulation. Estimating this uncertainty is a fundamental requirement for building confidence in such predictions. We outline a methodology to estimate this structural uncertainty, incorporating perturbations to the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of the modeled Reynolds stress tensor. The mathematical foundations of this framework are derived and explicated. Thence, this framework is applied to a set of separated turbulent flows, while compared to numerical and experimental data and contrasted against the predictions of the eigenvalue-only perturbation methodology. It is exhibited that for separated flows, this framework is able to yield significant enhancement over the established eigenvalue perturbation methodology in explaining the discrepancy against experimental observations and high-fidelity simulations. Furthermore, uncertainty bounds of potential engineering utility can be estimated by performing five specific RANS simulations, reducing the computational expenditure on such an exercise.

A detection of wobbling brightest cluster galaxies within massive galaxy clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, David; Courbin, F.; Kneib, J. P.; McCarthy, Ian G.

2017-12-01

A striking signal of dark matter beyond the standard model is the existence of cores in the centre of galaxy clusters. Recent simulations predict that a brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) inside a cored galaxy cluster will exhibit residual wobbling due to previous major mergers, long after the relaxation of the overall cluster. This phenomenon is absent with standard cold dark matter where a cuspy density profile keeps a BCG tightly bound at the centre. We test this hypothesis using cosmological simulations and deep observations of 10 galaxy clusters acting as strong gravitational lenses. Modelling the BCG wobble as a simple harmonic oscillator, we measure the wobble amplitude, Aw, in the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, finding an upper limit for the cold dark matter paradigm of Aw < 2 kpc at the 95 per cent confidence limit. We carry out the same test on the data finding a non-zero amplitude of A_w=11.82^{+7.3}_{-3.0} kpc, with the observations dis-favouring Aw = 0 at the 3σ confidence level. This detection of BCG wobbling is evidence for a dark matter core at the heart of galaxy clusters. It also shows that strong lensing models of clusters cannot assume that the BCG is exactly coincident with the large-scale halo. While our small sample of galaxy clusters already indicates a non-zero Aw, with larger surveys, e.g. Euclid, we will be able to not only confirm the effect but also to use it to determine whether or not the wobbling finds its origin in new fundamental physics or astrophysical process.

Estimation of the ARNO model baseflow parameters using daily streamflow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdulla, F. A.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Liang, Xu

1999-09-01

An approach is described for estimation of baseflow parameters of the ARNO model, using historical baseflow recession sequences extracted from daily streamflow records. This approach allows four of the model parameters to be estimated without rainfall data, and effectively facilitates partitioning of the parameter estimation procedure so that parsimonious search procedures can be used to estimate the remaining storm response parameters separately. Three methods of optimization are evaluated for estimation of four baseflow parameters. These methods are the downhill Simplex (S), Simulated Annealing combined with the Simplex method (SA) and Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE). These estimation procedures are explored in conjunction with four objective functions: (1) ordinary least squares; (2) ordinary least squares with Box-Cox transformation; (3) ordinary least squares on prewhitened residuals; (4) ordinary least squares applied to prewhitened with Box-Cox transformation of residuals. The effects of changing the seed random generator for both SA and SCE methods are also explored, as are the effects of the bounds of the parameters. Although all schemes converge to the same values of the objective function, SCE method was found to be less sensitive to these issues than both the SA and the Simplex schemes. Parameter uncertainty and interactions are investigated through estimation of the variance-covariance matrix and confidence intervals. As expected the parameters were found to be correlated and the covariance matrix was found to be not diagonal. Furthermore, the linearized confidence interval theory failed for about one-fourth of the catchments while the maximum likelihood theory did not fail for any of the catchments.

Stratifying the potential local transmission of Zika in municipalities of Antioquia, Colombia.

PubMed

Ospina, Juan; Hincapie-Palacio, Doracelly; Ochoa, Jesús; Molina, Adriana; Rúa, Guillermo; Pájaro, Dubán; Arrubla, Marcela; Almanza, Rita; Paredes, Marlio; Mubayi, Anuj

2017-10-01

To stratify and understand the potential transmission processes of Zika virus in Colombia, in order to effectively address the efforts on surveillance and disease control. We compare R 0 of Zika for municipalities based on data from the regional surveillance system of Antioquia, Colombia. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and its 95% confidence intervals were estimated from an SIR model with implicit vector dynamics, in terms of recovered individuals in each time unit, using an approximate solution. These parameters were estimated fitting the solution of the model to the daily cumulative frequency of each Zika case according to symptoms onset date relative to the index case reported to the local surveillance system. R 0 was estimated for 20 municipalities with a median of 30 000 inhabitants, all located less than 2200 m above sea level. The reported cases ranged from 17 to 347 between these municipalities within 4 months (January to April of 2016). The results suggest that 15 municipalities had a high transmission potential (R 0  > 1), whereas in five municipality transmissions were potentially not sustaining (R 0  < 1), although the upper bound of the confidence interval of the R 0 for 3 of these 5 was greater than one, indicating the possibility of an outbreak later on. The study identified high-risk municipalities (R 0  > 1) and provide a technique to optimise surveillance and control of Zika. Health authorities should promote the collection, analysis, modelling and sharing of anonymous data onto individual cases to estimate R 0 . © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extending the Diffuse Layer Model of Surface Acidity Behavior: III. Estimating Bound Site Activity Coefficients

EPA Science Inventory

Although detailed thermodynamic analyses of the 2-pK diffuse layer surface complexation model generally specify bound site activity coefficients for the purpose of accounting for those non-ideal excess free energies contributing to bound site electrochemical potentials, in applic...

Current modeling practice may lead to falsely high benchmark dose estimates.

PubMed

Ringblom, Joakim; Johanson, Gunnar; Öberg, Mattias

2014-07-01

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is increasingly used as the preferred approach to define the point-of-departure for health risk assessment of chemicals. As data are inherently variable, there is always a risk to select a model that defines a lower confidence bound of the BMD (BMDL) that, contrary to expected, exceeds the true BMD. The aim of this study was to investigate how often and under what circumstances such anomalies occur under current modeling practice. Continuous data were generated from a realistic dose-effect curve by Monte Carlo simulations using four dose groups and a set of five different dose placement scenarios, group sizes between 5 and 50 animals and coefficients of variations of 5-15%. The BMD calculations were conducted using nested exponential models, as most BMD software use nested approaches. "Non-protective" BMDLs (higher than true BMD) were frequently observed, in some scenarios reaching 80%. The phenomenon was mainly related to the selection of the non-sigmoidal exponential model (Effect=a·e(b)(·dose)). In conclusion, non-sigmoid models should be used with caution as it may underestimate the risk, illustrating that awareness of the model selection process and sound identification of the point-of-departure is vital for health risk assessment. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the SURE Program, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, Kelly J.

1987-01-01

Presented are the results of the first phase in the validation of the SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator) program. The SURE program gives lower and upper bounds on the death-state probabilities of a semi-Markov model. With these bounds, the reliability of a semi-Markov model of a fault-tolerant computer system can be analyzed. For the first phase in the validation, fifteen semi-Markov models were solved analytically for the exact death-state probabilities and these solutions compared to the corresponding bounds given by SURE. In every case, the SURE bounds covered the exact solution. The bounds, however, had a tendency to separate in cases where the recovery rate was slow or the fault arrival rate was fast.

Bounded Linear Stability Analysis - A Time Delay Margin Estimation Approach for Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.; Ishihara, Abraham K.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Srinlvas; Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam

2009-01-01

This paper presents a method for estimating time delay margin for model-reference adaptive control of systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent the conventional model-reference adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window using the comparison lemma. The locally bounded linear approximation of the combined adaptive system is cast in a form of an input-time-delay differential equation over a small time window. The time delay margin of this system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by a matrix measure method, which provides a simple analytical technique for estimating an upper bound of time delay margin. Based on simulation results for a scalar model-reference adaptive control system, both the bounded linear stability method and the matrix measure method are seen to provide a reasonably accurate and yet not too conservative time delay margin estimation.

Innovative Adolescent Chemical Dependency Treatment and Its Outcome: A Model Based on Outward Bound Programming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McPeake, John D.; And Others

1991-01-01

Describes adolescent chemical dependency treatment model developed at Beech Hill Hospital (New Hampshire) which integrated Twelve Step-oriented alcohol and drug rehabilitation program with experiential education school, Hurricane Island Outward Bound School. Describes Beech Hill Hurricane Island Outward Bound School Adolescent Chemical Dependency…

LISA pathfinder appreciably constrains collapse models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helou, Bassam; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; McClelland, David E.; Chen, Yanbei

2017-04-01

Spontaneous collapse models are phenomological theories formulated to address major difficulties in macroscopic quantum mechanics. We place significant bounds on the parameters of the leading collapse models, the continuous spontaneous localization (CSL) model, and the Diosi-Penrose (DP) model, by using LISA Pathfinder's measurement, at a record accuracy, of the relative acceleration noise between two free-falling macroscopic test masses. In particular, we bound the CSL collapse rate to be at most (2.96 ±0.12 ) ×10-8 s-1 . This competitive bound explores a new frequency regime, 0.7 to 20 mHz, and overlaps with the lower bound 10-8 ±2 s-1 proposed by Adler in order for the CSL collapse noise to be substantial enough to explain the phenomenology of quantum measurement. Moreover, we bound the regularization cutoff scale used in the DP model to prevent divergences to be at least 40.1 ±0.5 fm , which is larger than the size of any nucleus. Thus, we rule out the DP model if the cutoff is the size of a fundamental particle.

iGen: An automated generator of simplified models with provable error bounds.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, D.; Dobbie, S.

2009-04-01

Climate models employ various simplifying assumptions and parameterisations in order to increase execution speed. However, in order to draw conclusions about the Earths climate from the results of a climate simulation it is necessary to have information about the error that these assumptions and parameterisations introduce. A novel computer program, called iGen, is being developed which automatically generates fast, simplified models by analysing the source code of a slower, high resolution model. The resulting simplified models have provable bounds on error compared to the high resolution model and execute at speeds that are typically orders of magnitude faster. iGen's input is a definition of the prognostic variables of the simplified model, a set of bounds on acceptable error and the source code of a model that captures the behaviour of interest. In the case of an atmospheric model, for example, this would be a global cloud resolving model with very high resolution. Although such a model would execute far too slowly to be used directly in a climate model, iGen never executes it. Instead, it converts the code of the resolving model into a mathematical expression which is then symbolically manipulated and approximated to form a simplified expression. This expression is then converted back into a computer program and output as a simplified model. iGen also derives and reports formal bounds on the error of the simplified model compared to the resolving model. These error bounds are always maintained below the user-specified acceptable error. Results will be presented illustrating the success of iGen's analysis of a number of example models. These extremely encouraging results have lead on to work which is currently underway to analyse a cloud resolving model and so produce an efficient parameterisation of moist convection with formally bounded error.

Twisting, supercoiling and stretching in protein bound DNA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Pui-Man; Zhen, Yi

2018-04-01

We have calculated theoretical results for the torque and slope of the twisted DNA, with various proteins bound on it, using the Neukirch-Marko model, in the regime where plectonemes exist. We found that the torque in the protein bound DNA decreases compared to that in the bare DNA. This is caused by the decrease in the free energy g(f) , and hence the smaller persistence lengths, in the case of protein bound DNA. We hope our results will encourage experimental investigations of supercoiling in protein bound DNA, which can provide further tests of the Neukirch-Marko model.

A Signal-to-Noise Crossover Dose as the Point of Departure for Health Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Portier, Christopher J.; Krewski, Daniel

2011-01-01

Background: The U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) cancer bioassay database provides an opportunity to compare both existing and new approaches to determining points of departure (PoDs) for establishing reference doses (RfDs). Objectives: The aims of this study were a) to investigate the risk associated with the traditional PoD used in human health risk assessment [the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL)]; b) to present a new approach based on the signal-to-noise crossover dose (SNCD); and c) to compare the SNCD and SNCD-based RfD with PoDs and RfDs based on the NOAEL and benchmark dose (BMD) approaches. Methods: The complete NTP database was used as the basis for these analyses, which were performed using the Hill model. We determined NOAELs and estimated corresponding extra risks. Lower 95% confidence bounds on the BMD (BMDLs) corresponding to extra risks of 1%, 5%, and 10% (BMDL01, BMDL05, and BMDL10, respectively) were also estimated. We introduce the SNCD as a new PoD, defined as the dose where the additional risk is equal to the “background noise” (the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the two-sided 90% confidence interval on absolute risk) or a specified fraction thereof. Results: The median risk at the NOAEL was approximately 10%, and the default uncertainty factor (UF = 100) was considered most applicable to the BMDL10. Therefore, we chose a target risk of 1/1,000 (0.1/100) to derive an SNCD-based RfD by linear extrapolation. At the median, this approach provided the same RfD as the BMDL10 divided by the default UF. Conclusions: Under a standard BMD approach, the BMDL10 is considered to be the most appropriate PoD. The SNCD approach, which is based on the lowest dose at which the signal can be reliably detected, warrants further development as a PoD for human health risk assessment. PMID:21813365

The Space Motion of Leo I: The Mass of the Milky Way's Dark Matter Halo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boylan-Kolchin, Michael; Bullock, James S.; Sohn, Sangmo Tony; Besla, Gurtina; van der Marel, Roeland P.

2013-05-01

We combine our Hubble Space Telescope measurement of the proper motion of the Leo I dwarf spheroidal galaxy (presented in a companion paper) with the highest resolution numerical simulations of Galaxy-size dark matter halos in existence to constrain the mass of the Milky Way's dark matter halo (M vir, MW). Despite Leo I's large Galactocentric space velocity (200 km s-1) and distance (261 kpc), we show that it is extremely unlikely to be unbound if Galactic satellites are associated with dark matter substructure, as 99.9% of subhalos in the simulations are bound to their host. The observed position and velocity of Leo I strongly disfavor a low-mass Milky Way: if we assume that Leo I is the least bound of the Milky Way's classical satellites, then we find that M vir, MW > 1012 M ⊙ at 95% confidence for a variety of Bayesian priors on M vir, MW. In lower mass halos, it is vanishingly rare to find subhalos at 261 kpc moving as fast as Leo I. Should an additional classical satellite be found to be less bound than Leo I, this lower limit on M vir, MW would increase by 30%. Imposing a mass-weighted ΛCDM prior, we find a median Milky Way virial mass of M vir, MW = 1.6 × 1012 M ⊙, with a 90% confidence interval of [1.0-2.4] × 1012 M ⊙. We also confirm a strong correlation between subhalo infall time and orbital energy in the simulations and show that proper motions can aid significantly in interpreting the infall times and orbital histories of satellites.

Simultaneous Force Regression and Movement Classification of Fingers via Surface EMG within a Unified Bayesian Framework.

PubMed

Baldacchino, Tara; Jacobs, William R; Anderson, Sean R; Worden, Keith; Rowson, Jennifer

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a novel methodology for myolectric-based control using surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals recorded during finger movements. A multivariate Bayesian mixture of experts (MoE) model is introduced which provides a powerful method for modeling force regression at the fingertips, while also performing finger movement classification as a by-product of the modeling algorithm. Bayesian inference of the model allows uncertainties to be naturally incorporated into the model structure. This method is tested using data from the publicly released NinaPro database which consists of sEMG recordings for 6 degree-of-freedom force activations for 40 intact subjects. The results demonstrate that the MoE model achieves similar performance compared to the benchmark set by the authors of NinaPro for finger force regression. Additionally, inherent to the Bayesian framework is the inclusion of uncertainty in the model parameters, naturally providing confidence bounds on the force regression predictions. Furthermore, the integrated clustering step allows a detailed investigation into classification of the finger movements, without incurring any extra computational effort. Subsequently, a systematic approach to assessing the importance of the number of electrodes needed for accurate control is performed via sensitivity analysis techniques. A slight degradation in regression performance is observed for a reduced number of electrodes, while classification performance is unaffected.

Approximate Model Checking of PCTL Involving Unbounded Path Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Samik; Ghosh, Arka P.; He, Ru

We study the problem of applying statistical methods for approximate model checking of probabilistic systems against properties encoded as PCTL formulas. Such approximate methods have been proposed primarily to deal with state-space explosion that makes the exact model checking by numerical methods practically infeasible for large systems. However, the existing statistical methods either consider a restricted subset of PCTL, specifically, the subset that can only express bounded until properties; or rely on user-specified finite bound on the sample path length. We propose a new method that does not have such restrictions and can be effectively used to reason about unbounded until properties. We approximate probabilistic characteristics of an unbounded until property by that of a bounded until property for a suitably chosen value of the bound. In essence, our method is a two-phase process: (a) the first phase is concerned with identifying the bound k 0; (b) the second phase computes the probability of satisfying the k 0-bounded until property as an estimate for the probability of satisfying the corresponding unbounded until property. In both phases, it is sufficient to verify bounded until properties which can be effectively done using existing statistical techniques. We prove the correctness of our technique and present its prototype implementations. We empirically show the practical applicability of our method by considering different case studies including a simple infinite-state model, and large finite-state models such as IPv4 zeroconf protocol and dining philosopher protocol modeled as Discrete Time Markov chains.

On the Validity of Econometric Techniques with Weak Instruments--Inference on Returns to Education Using Compulsory School Attendance Laws

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cruz, Luiz M.; Moreira, Marcelo J.

2005-01-01

The authors evaluate Angrist and Krueger (1991) and Bound, Jaeger, and Baker (1995) by constructing reliable confidence regions around the 2SLS and LIML estimators for returns-to-schooling regardless of the quality of the instruments. The results indicate that the returns-to-schooling were between 8 and 25 percent in 1970 and between 4 and 14…

GUM Analysis for TIMS and SIMS Isotopic Ratios in Graphite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heasler, Patrick G.; Gerlach, David C.; Cliff, John B.

2007-04-01

This report describes GUM calculations for TIMS and SIMS isotopic ratio measurements of reactor graphite samples. These isotopic ratios are used to estimate reactor burn-up, and currently consist of various ratios of U, Pu, and Boron impurities in the graphite samples. The GUM calculation is a propagation of error methodology that assigns uncertainties (in the form of standard error and confidence bound) to the final estimates.

Estimating numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keating, K.A.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.; Moody, D.

2001-01-01

For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), minimum population size and allowable numbers of human-caused mortalities have been calculated as a function of the number of unique females with cubs-of-the-year (FCUB) seen during a 3- year period. This approach underestimates the total number of FCUB, thereby biasing estimates of population size and sustainable mortality. Also, it does not permit calculation of valid confidence bounds. Many statistical methods can resolve or mitigate these problems, but there is no universal best method. Instead, relative performances of different methods can vary with population size, sample size, and degree of heterogeneity among sighting probabilities for individual animals. We compared 7 nonparametric estimators, using Monte Carlo techniques to assess performances over the range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population. Our goal was to estimate the number of FCUB present in the population each year. Our evaluation differed from previous comparisons of such estimators by including sample coverage methods and by treating individual sightings, rather than sample periods, as the sample unit. Consequently, our conclusions also differ from earlier studies. Recommendations regarding estimators and necessary sample sizes are presented, together with estimates of annual numbers of FCUB in the Yellowstone population with bootstrap confidence bounds.

Validation of a metered dose inhaler electronic monitoring device: implications for asthma clinical trial use.

PubMed

Pilcher, Janine; Holliday, Mark; Ebmeier, Stefan; McKinstry, Steve; Messaoudi, Fatiha; Weatherall, Mark; Beasley, Richard

2016-01-01

The SmartTouch Ventolin monitor (Adherium, Auckland, New Zealand) is an electronic monitor for use with a Ventolin metered dose inhaler, which records the date and time of inhaler actuations. This technology has the potential to allow in-depth analysis of patterns of inhaler use in clinical trial settings. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of the SmartTouch Ventolin monitor in recording Ventolin actuations. 20 SmartTouch Ventolin monitors were attached to Ventolin metered dose inhalers. Bench testing was performed over a 10-week period, to reflect the potential time frame between visits in a clinical trial. Inhaler actuations were recorded in a paper diary, which was compared with data uploaded from the monitors. 2560 actuations were performed during the 10-week study period. Monitor sensitivity for diary-recorded actuations was 99.9% with a lower 97.5% confidence bound of 99.7%. The positive predictive value for diary-recorded actuations was 100% with a 97.5% lower confidence bound of 99.9%. The SmartTouch Ventolin monitor is highly accurate in recording and retaining electronic data. It can be recommended for use in clinical trial settings in which training and quality control systems are incorporated into study protocols to ensure accurate data acquisition.

Validation of a metered dose inhaler electronic monitoring device: implications for asthma clinical trial use

PubMed Central

Pilcher, Janine; Holliday, Mark; Ebmeier, Stefan; McKinstry, Steve; Messaoudi, Fatiha; Weatherall, Mark; Beasley, Richard

2016-01-01

Background The SmartTouch Ventolin monitor (Adherium, Auckland, New Zealand) is an electronic monitor for use with a Ventolin metered dose inhaler, which records the date and time of inhaler actuations. This technology has the potential to allow in-depth analysis of patterns of inhaler use in clinical trial settings. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of the SmartTouch Ventolin monitor in recording Ventolin actuations. Methods 20 SmartTouch Ventolin monitors were attached to Ventolin metered dose inhalers. Bench testing was performed over a 10-week period, to reflect the potential time frame between visits in a clinical trial. Inhaler actuations were recorded in a paper diary, which was compared with data uploaded from the monitors. Results 2560 actuations were performed during the 10-week study period. Monitor sensitivity for diary-recorded actuations was 99.9% with a lower 97.5% confidence bound of 99.7%. The positive predictive value for diary-recorded actuations was 100% with a 97.5% lower confidence bound of 99.9%. Conclusions The SmartTouch Ventolin monitor is highly accurate in recording and retaining electronic data. It can be recommended for use in clinical trial settings in which training and quality control systems are incorporated into study protocols to ensure accurate data acquisition. PMID:27026805

A lower limit on the age of the universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaboyer, B.; Demarque, P.; Kernan, P.J.

1996-02-16

A detailed numerical study was designed and conducted to estimate the absolute age and the uncertainty in age (with confidence limits) of the oldest globular clusters in our galaxy, and hence to put a robust lower bound on the age of the universe. Estimates of the uncertainty range and distribution in the input parameters of stellar evolution codes were used to produce 1000 Monte Carlo realizations of stellar isochrones, which were then used to derive ages for the 17 oldest globular clusters. A probability distribution for the mean age of these systems was derived by incorporating the observational uncertainties inmore » chrones. The dominant contribution to the width of the distribution (approximately {sup +}{sub -}5) magnitudes. Subdominant contributions came from the choice of the color table used to translate theoretical luminosities and temperatures to observed magnitudes and colors, as well as from theoretical uncertainties in heavy element abundances and mixing length. The one-sided 95 percent confidence limit lower bound for this distribution occurs at an age of 12.07 X 10{sup 9} years, and the median age for the distribution is 14.56 X 10{sup 9} years. These age limits, when compared with the Hubble age estimate, put powerful constraints on cosmology. 41 refs., 2 figs.« less

Statistical methods for identifying and bounding a UXO target area or minefield

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKinstry, Craig A.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Gilbert, Richard O.

2003-09-18

The sampling unit for minefield or UXO area characterization is typically represented by a geographical block or transect swath that lends itself to characterization by geophysical instrumentation such as mobile sensor arrays. New spatially based statistical survey methods and tools, more appropriate for these unique sampling units have been developed and implemented at PNNL (Visual Sample Plan software, ver. 2.0) with support from the US Department of Defense. Though originally developed to support UXO detection and removal efforts, these tools may also be used in current form or adapted to support demining efforts and aid in the development of newmore » sensors and detection technologies by explicitly incorporating both sampling and detection error in performance assessments. These tools may be used to (1) determine transect designs for detecting and bounding target areas of critical size, shape, and density of detectable items of interest with a specified confidence probability, (2) evaluate the probability that target areas of a specified size, shape and density have not been missed by a systematic or meandering transect survey, and (3) support post-removal verification by calculating the number of transects required to achieve a specified confidence probability that no UXO or mines have been missed.« less

Limits on cold dark matter cosmologies from new anisotropy bounds on the cosmic microwave background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vittorio, Nicola; Meinhold, Peter; Lubin, Philip; Muciaccia, Pio Francesco; Silk, Joseph

1991-01-01

A self-consistent method is presented for comparing theoretical predictions of and observational upper limits on CMB anisotropy. New bounds on CDM cosmologies set by the UCSB South Pole experiment on the 1 deg angular scale are presented. An upper limit of 4.0 x 10 to the -5th is placed on the rms differential temperature anisotropy to a 95 percent confidence level and a power of the test beta = 55 percent. A lower limit of about 0.6/b is placed on the density parameter of cold dark matter universes with greater than about 3 percent baryon abundance and a Hubble constant of 50 km/s/Mpc, where b is the bias factor, equal to unity only if light traces mass.

Divergences and estimating tight bounds on Bayes error with applications to multivariate Gaussian copula and latent Gaussian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thelen, Brian J.; Xique, Ismael J.; Burns, Joseph W.; Goley, G. Steven; Nolan, Adam R.; Benson, Jonathan W.

2017-04-01

In Bayesian decision theory, there has been a great amount of research into theoretical frameworks and information- theoretic quantities that can be used to provide lower and upper bounds for the Bayes error. These include well-known bounds such as Chernoff, Battacharrya, and J-divergence. Part of the challenge of utilizing these various metrics in practice is (i) whether they are "loose" or "tight" bounds, (ii) how they might be estimated via either parametric or non-parametric methods, and (iii) how accurate the estimates are for limited amounts of data. In general what is desired is a methodology for generating relatively tight lower and upper bounds, and then an approach to estimate these bounds efficiently from data. In this paper, we explore the so-called triangle divergence which has been around for a while, but was recently made more prominent in some recent research on non-parametric estimation of information metrics. Part of this work is motivated by applications for quantifying fundamental information content in SAR/LIDAR data, and to help in this, we have developed a flexible multivariate modeling framework based on multivariate Gaussian copula models which can be combined with the triangle divergence framework to quantify this information, and provide approximate bounds on Bayes error. In this paper we present an overview of the bounds, including those based on triangle divergence and verify that under a number of multivariate models, the upper and lower bounds derived from triangle divergence are significantly tighter than the other common bounds, and often times, dramatically so. We also propose some simple but effective means for computing the triangle divergence using Monte Carlo methods, and then discuss estimation of the triangle divergence from empirical data based on Gaussian Copula models.

Bounded rationality alters the dynamics of paediatric immunization acceptance.

PubMed

Oraby, Tamer; Bauch, Chris T

2015-06-02

Interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behavior have been explored in many coupled behavior-disease models. Cognitive effects such as risk perception, framing, and subjective probabilities of adverse events can be important determinants of the vaccinating behaviour, and represent departures from the pure "rational" decision model that are often described as "bounded rationality". However, the impact of such cognitive effects in the context of paediatric infectious disease vaccines has received relatively little attention. Here, we develop a disease-behavior model that accounts for bounded rationality through prospect theory. We analyze the model and compare its predictions to a reduced model that lacks bounded rationality. We find that, in general, introducing bounded rationality increases the dynamical richness of the model and makes it harder to eliminate a paediatric infectious disease. In contrast, in other cases, a low cost, highly efficacious vaccine can be refused, even when the rational decision model predicts acceptance. Injunctive social norms can prevent vaccine refusal, if vaccine acceptance is sufficiently high in the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Cognitive processes can have major impacts on the predictions of behaviour-disease models, and further study of such processes in the context of vaccination is thus warranted.

Bounded rationality alters the dynamics of paediatric immunization acceptance

PubMed Central

Oraby, Tamer; Bauch, Chris T.

2015-01-01

Interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behavior have been explored in many coupled behavior-disease models. Cognitive effects such as risk perception, framing, and subjective probabilities of adverse events can be important determinants of the vaccinating behaviour, and represent departures from the pure “rational” decision model that are often described as “bounded rationality”. However, the impact of such cognitive effects in the context of paediatric infectious disease vaccines has received relatively little attention. Here, we develop a disease-behavior model that accounts for bounded rationality through prospect theory. We analyze the model and compare its predictions to a reduced model that lacks bounded rationality. We find that, in general, introducing bounded rationality increases the dynamical richness of the model and makes it harder to eliminate a paediatric infectious disease. In contrast, in other cases, a low cost, highly efficacious vaccine can be refused, even when the rational decision model predicts acceptance. Injunctive social norms can prevent vaccine refusal, if vaccine acceptance is sufficiently high in the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Cognitive processes can have major impacts on the predictions of behaviour-disease models, and further study of such processes in the context of vaccination is thus warranted. PMID:26035413

Exact one-sided confidence bounds for the risk ratio in 2 x 2 tables with structural zero.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-12-01

This paper examines exact one-sided confidence limits for the risk ratio in a 2 x 2 table with structural zero. Starting with four approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust each using the algorithm of Buehler (1957) to arrive at lower (upper) limits that have exact coverage properties and are as large (small) as possible subject to coverage, as well as an ordering, constraint. Different Buehler limits are compared by their mean size, since all are exact in their coverage. Buehler limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are found to have the best performance and recommended for practical use. (c) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Planck limits on non-canonical generalizations of large-field inflation models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stein, Nina K.; Kinney, William H., E-mail: ninastei@buffalo.edu, E-mail: whkinney@buffalo.edu

2017-04-01

In this paper, we consider two case examples of Dirac-Born-Infeld (DBI) generalizations of canonical large-field inflation models, characterized by a reduced sound speed, c {sub S} < 1. The reduced speed of sound lowers the tensor-scalar ratio, improving the fit of the models to the data, but increases the equilateral-mode non-Gaussianity, f {sup equil.}{sub NL}, which the latest results from the Planck satellite constrain by a new upper bound. We examine constraints on these models in light of the most recent Planck and BICEP/Keck results, and find that they have a greatly decreased window of viability. The upper bound onmore » f {sup equil.}{sub NL} corresponds to a lower bound on the sound speed and a corresponding lower bound on the tensor-scalar ratio of r ∼ 0.01, so that near-future Cosmic Microwave Background observations may be capable of ruling out entire classes of DBI inflation models. The result is, however, not universal: infrared-type DBI inflation models, where the speed of sound increases with time, are not subject to the bound.« less

Updated RICE Bounds on Ultrahigh Energy Neutrino fluxes and interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Shahid; McKay, Douglas

2006-04-01

We explore limits on low scale gravity models set by results from the Radio Ice Cherenkov Experiment's (RICE) ongoing search for cosmic ray neutrinos in the cosmogenic, or GZK, energy range. The bound on, MD, the fundamental scale of gravity, depends upon cosmogenic flux model, black hole formation and decay treatments, inclusion of graviton mediated elastic neutrino processes, and the number of large extra dimensions, d. We find bounds in the interval 0.9 TeV < MD < 10 TeV. Values d = 5, 6 and 7, for which laboratory and astrophysical bounds on LSG models are less restrictive, lead to essentially the same limits on MD.

Unbiased constraints on ultralight axion mass from dwarf spheroidal galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Morales, Alma X.; Marsh, David J. E.; Peñarrubia, Jorge; Ureña-López, Luis A.

2017-12-01

It has been suggested that the internal dynamics of dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) can be used to test whether or not ultralight axions with ma ∼ 10-22 eV are a preferred dark matter candidate. However, comparisons to theoretical predictions tend to be inconclusive for the simple reason that while most cosmological models consider only dark matter, one observes only baryons. Here, we use realistic kinematic mock data catalogues of Milky Way (MW) dSph's to show that the 'mass-anisotropy degeneracy' in the Jeans equations leads to biased bounds on the axion mass in galaxies with unknown dark matter halo profiles. In galaxies with multiple chemodynamical components, this bias can be partly removed by modelling the mass enclosed within each subpopulation. However, analysis of the mock data reveals that the least-biased constraints on the axion mass result from fitting the luminosity-averaged velocity dispersion of the individual chemodynamical components directly. Applying our analysis to two dSph's with reported stellar subcomponents, Fornax and Sculptor, and assuming that the halo profile has not been acted on by baryons, yields core radii rc > 1.5 and 1.2 kpc, respectively, and ma < 0.4 × 10-22 eV at 97.5 per cent confidence. These bounds are in tension with the number of observed satellites derived from simple (but conservative) estimates of the subhalo mass function in MW-like galaxies. We discuss how baryonic feedback might affect our results, and the impact of such a small axion mass on the growth of structures in the Universe.

Data for Figures in Rainfall-induced release of microbes from manure: model development, parameter estimation, and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

? Figure 1. Ratio of cumulative released cells to cells initially present in the manure at Week 0 as they vary by time, manure type and age, microbe, and Event (i.e., season). The 95% confidence intervals of the observed median number of cells in microbial runoff are shown as the shaded area.? Figure 2. Typical observed and simulated cumulative microbial runoff for Plots A403 and C209 with individual plot calibration.? Figure 3. Observed versus simulated microbial runoff associated with the Approach 1, adjusted for cumulative results by manure type and Event. Results accounted for counts associated with field monitoring time intervals described in Section 2.1 Field method. NS=Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, EC=E. coli, En=enterococci, FC= fecal coliforms.? Figure 4. Ratio of cumulative released cells/mass to cells/mass initially present in the aged manure by time and component (e.g., microbe) for solid manure (a) and (b), and amended, dry litter, and slurry manure (c). Solid lines (Equation (11) correspond to values in Table 3 for solid manure, and dry litter and slurry manure, respectively: (a) uses individual b values, and (b) and (c) use the combined values for b. Bounds of first and third quartiles associated with the present study??s results for cattle. Bounds of first and third quartiles associated with the present study??s results for poultry and swine. The full color versions of all figures are available in the online version of this paper, at ht

A Probabilistic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Uncertainty Propagation in Musculoskeletal Simulations

PubMed Central

Myers, Casey A.; Laz, Peter J.; Shelburne, Kevin B.; Davidson, Bradley S.

2015-01-01

Uncertainty that arises from measurement error and parameter estimation can significantly affect the interpretation of musculoskeletal simulations; however, these effects are rarely addressed. The objective of this study was to develop an open-source probabilistic musculoskeletal modeling framework to assess how measurement error and parameter uncertainty propagate through a gait simulation. A baseline gait simulation was performed for a male subject using OpenSim for three stages: inverse kinematics, inverse dynamics, and muscle force prediction. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed that considered intrarater variability in marker placement, movement artifacts in each phase of gait, variability in body segment parameters, and variability in muscle parameters calculated from cadaveric investigations. Propagation of uncertainty was performed by also using the output distributions from one stage as input distributions to subsequent stages. Confidence bounds (5–95%) and sensitivity of outputs to model input parameters were calculated throughout the gait cycle. The combined impact of uncertainty resulted in mean bounds that ranged from 2.7° to 6.4° in joint kinematics, 2.7 to 8.1 N m in joint moments, and 35.8 to 130.8 N in muscle forces. The impact of movement artifact was 1.8 times larger than any other propagated source. Sensitivity to specific body segment parameters and muscle parameters were linked to where in the gait cycle they were calculated. We anticipate that through the increased use of probabilistic tools, researchers will better understand the strengths and limitations of their musculoskeletal simulations and more effectively use simulations to evaluate hypotheses and inform clinical decisions. PMID:25404535

Explicit formula for the Holevo bound for two-parameter qubit-state estimation problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, Jun, E-mail: junsuzuki@uec.ac.jp

The main contribution of this paper is to derive an explicit expression for the fundamental precision bound, the Holevo bound, for estimating any two-parameter family of qubit mixed-states in terms of quantum versions of Fisher information. The obtained formula depends solely on the symmetric logarithmic derivative (SLD), the right logarithmic derivative (RLD) Fisher information, and a given weight matrix. This result immediately provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the following two important classes of quantum statistical models; the Holevo bound coincides with the SLD Cramér-Rao bound and it does with the RLD Cramér-Rao bound. One of the important results ofmore » this paper is that a general model other than these two special cases exhibits an unexpected property: the structure of the Holevo bound changes smoothly when the weight matrix varies. In particular, it always coincides with the RLD Cramér-Rao bound for a certain choice of the weight matrix. Several examples illustrate these findings.« less

GENES AS INSTRUMENTS FOR STUDYING RISK BEHAVIOR EFFECTS: AN APPLICATION TO MATERNAL SMOKING AND OROFACIAL CLEFTS

PubMed Central

Jugessur, Astanand; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Moreno, Lina; Wilcox, Allen; Lie, Rolv T.

2011-01-01

This study uses instrumental variable (IV) models with genetic instruments to assess the effects of maternal smoking on the child’s risk of orofacial clefts (OFC), a common birth defect. The study uses genotypic variants in neurotransmitter and detoxification genes relateded to smoking as instruments for cigarette smoking before and during pregnancy. Conditional maximum likelihood and two-stage IV probit models are used to estimate the IV model. The data are from a population-level sample of affected and unaffected children in Norway. The selected genetic instruments generally fit the IV assumptions but may be considered “weak” in predicting cigarette smoking. We find that smoking before and during pregnancy increases OFC risk substantially under the IV model (by about 4–5 times at the sample average smoking rate). This effect is greater than that found with classical analytic models. This may be because the usual models are not able to consider self-selection into smoking based on unobserved confounders, or it may to some degree reflect limitations of the instruments. Inference based on weak-instrument robust confidence bounds is consistent with standard inference. Genetic instruments may provide a valuable approach to estimate the “causal” effects of risk behaviors with genetic-predisposing factors (such as smoking) on health and socioeconomic outcomes. PMID:22102793

Modeling and sensitivity analysis on the transport of aluminum oxide nanoparticles in saturated sand: effects of ionic strength, flow rate, and nanoparticle concentration.

PubMed

Rahman, Tanzina; Millwater, Harry; Shipley, Heather J

2014-11-15

Aluminum oxide nanoparticles have been widely used in various consumer products and there are growing concerns regarding their exposure in the environment. This study deals with the modeling, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of one-dimensional transport of nano-sized (~82 nm) aluminum oxide particles in saturated sand. The transport of aluminum oxide nanoparticles was modeled using a two-kinetic-site model with a blocking function. The modeling was done at different ionic strengths, flow rates, and nanoparticle concentrations. The two sites representing fast and slow attachments along with a blocking term yielded good agreement with the experimental results from the column studies of aluminum oxide nanoparticles. The same model was used to simulate breakthrough curves under different conditions using experimental data and calculated 95% confidence bounds of the generated breakthroughs. The sensitivity analysis results showed that slow attachment was the most sensitive parameter for high influent concentrations (e.g. 150 mg/L Al2O3) and the maximum solid phase retention capacity (related to blocking function) was the most sensitive parameter for low concentrations (e.g. 50 mg/L Al2O3). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts during the First Advanced LIGO Observing Run and Implications for the Origin of GRB 150906B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Bécsy, B.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Belgin, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canepa, M.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Dálya, G.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernández Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, A.; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, Whansun; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGrath, C.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Szolgyen, A.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tippens, T.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Aptekar, R. L.; Frederiks, D. D.; Golenetskii, S. V.; Golovin, D. V.; Hurley, K.; Litvak, M. L.; Mitrofanov, I. G.; Rau, A.; Sanin, A. B.; Svinkin, D. S.; von Kienlin, A.; Zhang, X.; IPN Collaboration

2017-06-01

We present the results of the search for gravitational waves (GWs) associated with γ-ray bursts detected during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO). We find no evidence of a GW signal for any of the 41 γ-ray bursts for which LIGO data are available with sufficient duration. For all γ-ray bursts, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source using the optimistic assumption that GWs with an energy of {10}-2{M}⊙ {c}2 were emitted within the 16-500 Hz band, and we find a median 90% confidence limit of 71 Mpc at 150 Hz. For the subset of 19 short/hard γ-ray bursts, we place lower bounds on distance with a median 90% confidence limit of 90 Mpc for binary neutron star (BNS) coalescences, and 150 and 139 Mpc for neutron star-black hole coalescences with spins aligned to the orbital angular momentum and in a generic configuration, respectively. These are the highest distance limits ever achieved by GW searches. We also discuss in detail the results of the search for GWs associated with GRB 150906B, an event that was localized by the InterPlanetary Network near the local galaxy NGC 3313, which is at a luminosity distance of 54 Mpc (z = 0.0124). Assuming the γ-ray emission is beamed with a jet half-opening angle ≤slant 30^\\circ , we exclude a BNS and a neutron star-black hole in NGC 3313 as the progenitor of this event with confidence >99%. Further, we exclude such progenitors up to a distance of 102 Mpc and 170 Mpc, respectively.

LHC phenomenology of SO(10) models with Yukawa unification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandakrishnan, Archana; Bryant, B. Charles; Raby, Stuart; Wingerter, Akın

2013-10-01

In this paper we study an SO(10) SUSY GUT with Yukawa unification for the third generation. We perform a global χ2 analysis given to obtain the GUT boundary conditions consistent with 11 low-energy observables, including the top, bottom and tau masses. We assume a universal mass, m16, for squarks and sleptons and a universal gaugino mass, M1/2. We then analyze the phenomenological consequences for the LHC for 15 benchmark models with fixed m16=20TeV and with varying values of the gluino mass. The goal of the present work is to (i) evaluate the lower bound on the gluino mass in our model coming from the most recent published data of CMS and (ii) to compare this bound with similar bounds obtained by CMS using simplified models. The bottom line is that the bounds coming from the same-sign dilepton analysis are comparable for our model and the simplified model studied assuming B(g˜→tt¯χ˜10)=100%. However the bounds coming from the purely hadronic analyses for our model are 10%-20% lower than obtained for the simplified models. This is due to the fact that for our models the branching ratio for the decay g˜→gχ˜1,20 is significant. Thus there are significantly fewer b-jets. We find a lower bound on the gluino mass in our models with Mg˜≳1000GeV. Finally, there is a theoretical upper bound on the gluino mass which increases with the value of m16. For m16≤30TeV, the gluino mass satisfies Mg˜≤2.8TeV at 90% C.L. Thus, unless we further increase the amount of fine-tuning, we expect gluinos to be discovered at LHC 14.

A new dual-collimation batch reactor for determination of ultraviolet inactivation rate constants for microorganisms in aqueous suspensions

PubMed Central

Martin, Stephen B.; Schauer, Elizabeth S.; Blum, David H.; Kremer, Paul A.; Bahnfleth, William P.; Freihaut, James D.

2017-01-01

We developed, characterized, and tested a new dual-collimation aqueous UV reactor to improve the accuracy and consistency of aqueous k-value determinations. This new system is unique because it collimates UV energy from a single lamp in two opposite directions. The design provides two distinct advantages over traditional single-collimation systems: 1) real-time UV dose (fluence) determination; and 2) simple actinometric determination of a reactor factor that relates measured irradiance levels to actual irradiance levels experienced by the microbial suspension. This reactor factor replaces three of the four typical correction factors required for single-collimation reactors. Using this dual-collimation reactor, Bacillus subtilis spores demonstrated inactivation following the classic multi-hit model with k = 0.1471 cm2/mJ (with 95% confidence bounds of 0.1426 to 0.1516). PMID:27498232

Search for the Higgs Boson in the H to WW to l nu jj Decay Channel in pp Collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B; Abdallah, J

2011-11-30

A search for a Higgs boson has been performed in the H {yields} WW {yields} {ell}{nu}jj channel in 1.04 fb{sup -1} of pp collision data at {radical}s = 7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess of events is observed over the expected background and limits on the Higgs boson production cross section are derived for a Higgs boson mass in the range 240 GeV < m{sub H} < 600 GeV. The best sensitivity is reached for m{sub H} = 400 GeV, where the 95% confidence level upper bound on the cross sectionmore » for H {yields} WW production is 3.1 pb, or 2.7 times the standard model prediction.« less

Pattern Selection and Super-Patterns in Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Naim, Eli; Scheel, Arnd

We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes of the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. The spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.

Detection of Pneumonia Associated Pathogens Using a Prototype Multiplexed Pneumonia Test in Hospitalized Patients with Severe Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Schulte, Berit; Eickmeyer, Holm; Heininger, Alexandra; Juretzek, Stephanie; Karrasch, Matthias; Denis, Olivier; Roisin, Sandrine; Pletz, Mathias W.; Klein, Matthias; Barth, Sandra; Lüdke, Gerd H.; Thews, Anne; Torres, Antoni; Cillóniz, Catia; Straube, Eberhard; Autenrieth, Ingo B.; Keller, Peter M.

2014-01-01

Severe pneumonia remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been shown to be more sensitive than current standard microbiological methods – particularly in patients with prior antibiotic treatment – and therefore, may improve the accuracy of microbiological diagnosis for hospitalized patients with pneumonia. Conventional detection techniques and multiplex PCR for 14 typical bacterial pneumonia-associated pathogens were performed on respiratory samples collected from adult hospitalized patients enrolled in a prospective multi-center study. Patients were enrolled from March until September 2012. A total of 739 fresh, native samples were eligible for analysis, of which 75 were sputa, 421 aspirates, and 234 bronchial lavages. 276 pathogens were detected by microbiology for which a valid PCR result was generated (positive or negative detection result by Curetis prototype system). Among these, 120 were identified by the prototype assay, 50 pathogens were not detected. Overall performance of the prototype for pathogen identification was 70.6% sensitivity (95% confidence interval (CI) lower bound: 63.3%, upper bound: 76.9%) and 95.2% specificity (95% CI lower bound: 94.6%, upper bound: 95.7%). Based on the study results, device cut-off settings were adjusted for future series production. The overall performance with the settings of the CE series production devices was 78.7% sensitivity (95% CI lower bound: 72.1%) and 96.6% specificity (95% CI lower bound: 96.1%). Time to result was 5.2 hours (median) for the prototype test and 43.5 h for standard-of-care. The Pneumonia Application provides a rapid and moderately sensitive assay for the detection of pneumonia-causing pathogens with minimal hands-on time. Trial Registration Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien (DRKS) DRKS00005684 PMID:25397673

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oberkampf, William Louis; Tucker, W. Troy; Zhang, Jianzhong

This report summarizes methods to incorporate information (or lack of information) about inter-variable dependence into risk assessments that use Dempster-Shafer theory or probability bounds analysis to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. The report reviews techniques for simulating correlated variates for a given correlation measure and dependence model, computation of bounds on distribution functions under a specified dependence model, formulation of parametric and empirical dependence models, and bounding approaches that can be used when information about the intervariable dependence is incomplete. The report also reviews several of the most pervasive and dangerous myths among risk analysts about dependence in probabilistic models.

GUM Analysis for SIMS Isotopic Ratios in BEP0 Graphite Qualification Samples, Round 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerlach, David C.; Heasler, Patrick G.; Reid, Bruce D.

2009-01-01

This report describes GUM calculations for TIMS and SIMS isotopic ratio measurements of reactor graphite samples. These isotopic ratios are used to estimate reactor burn-up, and currently consist of various ratios of U, Pu, and Boron impurities in the graphite samples. The GUM calculation is a propagation of error methodology that assigns uncertainties (in the form of standard error and confidence bound) to the final estimates.

Weakly dynamic dark energy via metric-scalar couplings with torsion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sur, Sourav; Bhatia, Arshdeep Singh, E-mail: sourav.sur@gmail.com, E-mail: arshdeepsb@gmail.com

We study the dynamical aspects of dark energy in the context of a non-minimally coupled scalar field with curvature and torsion. Whereas the scalar field acts as the source of the trace mode of torsion, a suitable constraint on the torsion pseudo-trace provides a mass term for the scalar field in the effective action. In the equivalent scalar-tensor framework, we find explicit cosmological solutions representing dark energy in both Einstein and Jordan frames. We demand the dynamical evolution of the dark energy to be weak enough, so that the present-day values of the cosmological parameters could be estimated keeping themmore » within the confidence limits set for the standard LCDM model from recent observations. For such estimates, we examine the variations of the effective matter density and the dark energy equation of state parameters over different redshift ranges. In spite of being weakly dynamic, the dark energy component differs significantly from the cosmological constant, both in characteristics and features, for e.g. it interacts with the cosmological (dust) fluid in the Einstein frame, and crosses the phantom barrier in the Jordan frame. We also obtain the upper bounds on the torsion mode parameters and the lower bound on the effective Brans-Dicke parameter. The latter turns out to be fairly large, and in agreement with the local gravity constraints, which therefore come in support of our analysis.« less

Tests of General Relativity with GW150914

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C. J.; Berger, B. K.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H. P.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gatto, A.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Gendre, B.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hofman, D.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Islas, G.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Johnson-McDaniel, N. K.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Haris, M. K.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Kéfélian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, C.; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, Nam-Gyu; Kim, Namjun; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Kokeyama, K.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B. M.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Luo, J.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S. S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Setyawati, Y.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shah, S.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.; Boyle, M.; Campanelli, M.; Hemberger, D. A.; Kidder, L. E.; Ossokine, S.; Scheel, M. A.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Zlochower, Y.; LIGO Scientific; Virgo Collaborations

2016-06-01

The LIGO detection of GW150914 provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the two-body motion of a compact-object binary in the large-velocity, highly nonlinear regime, and to witness the final merger of the binary and the excitation of uniquely relativistic modes of the gravitational field. We carry out several investigations to determine whether GW150914 is consistent with a binary black-hole merger in general relativity. We find that the final remnant's mass and spin, as determined from the low-frequency (inspiral) and high-frequency (postinspiral) phases of the signal, are mutually consistent with the binary black-hole solution in general relativity. Furthermore, the data following the peak of GW150914 are consistent with the least-damped quasinormal mode inferred from the mass and spin of the remnant black hole. By using waveform models that allow for parametrized general-relativity violations during the inspiral and merger phases, we perform quantitative tests on the gravitational-wave phase in the dynamical regime and we determine the first empirical bounds on several high-order post-Newtonian coefficients. We constrain the graviton Compton wavelength, assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum in the same way as particles with mass, obtaining a 90%-confidence lower bound of 1013 km . In conclusion, within our statistical uncertainties, we find no evidence for violations of general relativity in the genuinely strong-field regime of gravity.

Weakly dynamic dark energy via metric-scalar couplings with torsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sur, Sourav; Singh Bhatia, Arshdeep

2017-07-01

We study the dynamical aspects of dark energy in the context of a non-minimally coupled scalar field with curvature and torsion. Whereas the scalar field acts as the source of the trace mode of torsion, a suitable constraint on the torsion pseudo-trace provides a mass term for the scalar field in the effective action. In the equivalent scalar-tensor framework, we find explicit cosmological solutions representing dark energy in both Einstein and Jordan frames. We demand the dynamical evolution of the dark energy to be weak enough, so that the present-day values of the cosmological parameters could be estimated keeping them within the confidence limits set for the standard LCDM model from recent observations. For such estimates, we examine the variations of the effective matter density and the dark energy equation of state parameters over different redshift ranges. In spite of being weakly dynamic, the dark energy component differs significantly from the cosmological constant, both in characteristics and features, for e.g. it interacts with the cosmological (dust) fluid in the Einstein frame, and crosses the phantom barrier in the Jordan frame. We also obtain the upper bounds on the torsion mode parameters and the lower bound on the effective Brans-Dicke parameter. The latter turns out to be fairly large, and in agreement with the local gravity constraints, which therefore come in support of our analysis.

Tests of General Relativity with GW150914.

PubMed

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2016-06-03

The LIGO detection of GW150914 provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the two-body motion of a compact-object binary in the large-velocity, highly nonlinear regime, and to witness the final merger of the binary and the excitation of uniquely relativistic modes of the gravitational field. We carry out several investigations to determine whether GW150914 is consistent with a binary black-hole merger in general relativity. We find that the final remnant's mass and spin, as determined from the low-frequency (inspiral) and high-frequency (postinspiral) phases of the signal, are mutually consistent with the binary black-hole solution in general relativity. Furthermore, the data following the peak of GW150914 are consistent with the least-damped quasinormal mode inferred from the mass and spin of the remnant black hole. By using waveform models that allow for parametrized general-relativity violations during the inspiral and merger phases, we perform quantitative tests on the gravitational-wave phase in the dynamical regime and we determine the first empirical bounds on several high-order post-Newtonian coefficients. We constrain the graviton Compton wavelength, assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum in the same way as particles with mass, obtaining a 90%-confidence lower bound of 10^{13}  km. In conclusion, within our statistical uncertainties, we find no evidence for violations of general relativity in the genuinely strong-field regime of gravity.

Limits on the Higgs boson lifetime and width from its decay to four charged leptons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

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A.; Kubik, A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Pozdnyakov, A.; Schmitt, M.; Stoynev, S.; Sung, K.; Trovato, M.; Velasco, M.; Won, S.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Dev, N.; Hildreth, M.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Lynch, S.; Marinelli, N.; Meng, F.; Mueller, C.; Musienko, Y.; Pearson, T.; Planer, M.; Reinsvold, A.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Taroni, S.; Valls, N.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Antonelli, L.; Brinson, J.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Hughes, R.; Kotov, K.; Ling, T. Y.; Liu, B.; Luo, W.; Puigh, D.; Rodenburg, M.; Winer, B. L.; Wulsin, H. W.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Koay, S. A.; Lujan, P.; Marlow, D.; Medvedeva, T.; Mooney, M.; Olsen, J.; Palmer, C.; Piroué, P.; Quan, X.; Saka, H.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Werner, J. S.; Zuranski, A.; Malik, S.; Barnes, V. E.; Benedetti, D.; Bortoletto, D.; Gutay, L.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, K.; Kress, M.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Primavera, F.; Radburn-Smith, B. C.; Shi, X.; Shipsey, I.; Silvers, D.; Sun, J.; Svyatkovskiy, A.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Xu, L.; Zablocki, J.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Chen, Z.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Guilbaud, M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Northup, M.; Padley, B. P.; Redjimi, R.; Roberts, J.; Rorie, J.; Tu, Z.; Zabel, J.; Betchart, B.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Eshaq, Y.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Goldenzweig, P.; Han, J.; Harel, A.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Petrillo, G.; Verzetti, M.; Demortier, L.; Arora, S.; Barker, A.; Chou, J. P.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Contreras-Campana, E.; Duggan, D.; Ferencek, D.; Gershtein, Y.; Gray, R.; Halkiadakis, E.; Hidas, D.; Hughes, E.; Kaplan, S.; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R.; Lath, A.; Nash, K.; Panwalkar, S.; Park, M.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Sheffield, D.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Foerster, M.; Riley, G.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; York, A.; Bouhali, O.; Castaneda Hernandez, A.; Dalchenko, M.; de Mattia, M.; Delgado, A.; Dildick, S.; Eusebi, R.; Flanagan, W.; Gilmore, J.; Kamon, T.; Krutelyov, V.; Montalvo, R.; Mueller, R.; Osipenkov, I.; Pakhotin, Y.; Patel, R.; Perloff, A.; Roe, J.; Rose, A.; Safonov, A.; Tatarinov, A.; Ulmer, K. A.; Akchurin, N.; Cowden, C.; Damgov, J.; Dragoiu, C.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Kunori, S.; Lamichhane, K.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Undleeb, S.; Volobouev, I.; Appelt, E.; Delannoy, A. G.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Janjam, R.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Mao, Y.; Melo, A.; Sheldon, P.; Snook, B.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Xu, Q.; Arenton, M. W.; Boutle, S.; Cox, B.; Francis, B.; Goodell, J.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Lin, C.; Neu, C.; Wolfe, E.; Wood, J.; Xia, F.; Clarke, C.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C.; Lamichhane, P.; Sturdy, J.; Belknap, D. A.; Carlsmith, D.; Cepeda, M.; Christian, A.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Friis, E.; Gomber, B.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Levine, A.; Long, K.; Loveless, R.; Mohapatra, A.; Ojalvo, I.; Perry, T.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ross, I.; Ruggles, T.; Sarangi, T.; Savin, A.; Sharma, A.; Smith, N.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Woods, N.; Cms Collaboration

2015-10-01

Constraints on the lifetime and width of the Higgs boson are obtained from H →Z Z →4 ℓ events using data recorded by the CMS experiment during the LHC run 1 with an integrated luminosity of 5.1 and 19.7 fb-1 at a center-of-mass energy of 7 and 8 TeV, respectively. The measurement of the Higgs boson lifetime is derived from its flight distance in the CMS detector with an upper bound of τH<1.9 ×10-13 s at the 95% confidence level (C.L.), corresponding to a lower bound on the width of ΓH>3.5 ×10-9 MeV . The measurement of the width is obtained from an off-shell production technique, generalized to include anomalous couplings of the Higgs boson to two electroweak bosons. From this measurement, a joint constraint is set on the Higgs boson width and a parameter fΛ Q that expresses an anomalous coupling contribution as an on-shell cross-section fraction. The limit on the Higgs boson width is ΓH<46 MeV with fΛ Q unconstrained and ΓH<26 MeV for fΛ Q=0 at the 95% C.L. The constraint fΛ Q<3.8 ×10-3 at the 95% C.L. is obtained for the expected standard model Higgs boson width.

A simple Bayesian approach to quantifying confidence level of adverse event incidence proportion in small samples.

PubMed

Liu, Fang

2016-01-01

In both clinical development and post-marketing of a new therapy or a new treatment, incidence of an adverse event (AE) is always a concern. When sample sizes are small, large sample-based inferential approaches on an AE incidence proportion in a certain time period no longer apply. In this brief discussion, we introduce a simple Bayesian framework to quantify, in small sample studies and the rare AE case, (1) the confidence level that the incidence proportion of a particular AE p is over or below a threshold, (2) the lower or upper bounds on p with a certain level of confidence, and (3) the minimum required number of patients with an AE before we can be certain that p surpasses a specific threshold, or the maximum allowable number of patients with an AE after which we can no longer be certain that p is below a certain threshold, given a certain confidence level. The method is easy to understand and implement; the interpretation of the results is intuitive. This article also demonstrates the usefulness of simple Bayesian concepts when it comes to answering practical questions.

Numerical Implementation of the Cohesive Soil Bounding Surface Plasticity Model. Volume I.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-02-01

AD-R24 866 NUMERICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE COHESIVE SOIL BOUNDING 1/2 SURFACE PLASTICITY ..(U) CALIFORNIA UNIV DAVIS DEPT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING L R...a study of various numerical means for implementing the bounding surface plasticity model for cohesive soils is presented. A comparison is made of... Plasticity Models 17 3.4 Selection Of Methods For Comparison 17 3.5 Theory 20 3.5.1 Solution Methods 20 3.5.2 Reduction Of The Number Of Equation

Precision Measurement of the Electron's Electric Dipole Moment Using Trapped Molecular Ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cairncross, William B.; Gresh, Daniel N.; Grau, Matt; Cossel, Kevin C.; Roussy, Tanya S.; Ni, Yiqi; Zhou, Yan; Ye, Jun; Cornell, Eric A.

2017-10-01

We describe the first precision measurement of the electron's electric dipole moment (de) using trapped molecular ions, demonstrating the application of spin interrogation times over 700 ms to achieve high sensitivity and stringent rejection of systematic errors. Through electron spin resonance spectroscopy on 180Hf 19F+ in its metastable 3Δ1 electronic state, we obtain de=(0.9 ±7. 7stat±1. 7syst)×10-29 e cm , resulting in an upper bound of |de|<1.3 ×10-28 e cm (90% confidence). Our result provides independent confirmation of the current upper bound of |de|<9.4 ×10-29 e cm [J. Baron et al., New J. Phys. 19, 073029 (2017), 10.1088/1367-2630/aa708e], and offers the potential to improve on this limit in the near future.

Identification of growth phases and influencing factors in cultivations with AGE1.HN cells using set-based methods.

PubMed

Borchers, Steffen; Freund, Susann; Rath, Alexander; Streif, Stefan; Reichl, Udo; Findeisen, Rolf

2013-01-01

Production of bio-pharmaceuticals in cell culture, such as mammalian cells, is challenging. Mathematical models can provide support to the analysis, optimization, and the operation of production processes. In particular, unstructured models are suited for these purposes, since they can be tailored to particular process conditions. To this end, growth phases and the most relevant factors influencing cell growth and product formation have to be identified. Due to noisy and erroneous experimental data, unknown kinetic parameters, and the large number of combinations of influencing factors, currently there are only limited structured approaches to tackle these issues. We outline a structured set-based approach to identify different growth phases and the factors influencing cell growth and metabolism. To this end, measurement uncertainties are taken explicitly into account to bound the time-dependent specific growth rate based on the observed increase of the cell concentration. Based on the bounds on the specific growth rate, we can identify qualitatively different growth phases and (in-)validate hypotheses on the factors influencing cell growth and metabolism. We apply the approach to a mammalian suspension cell line (AGE1.HN). We show that growth in batch culture can be divided into two main growth phases. The initial phase is characterized by exponential growth dynamics, which can be described consistently by a relatively simple unstructured and segregated model. The subsequent phase is characterized by a decrease in the specific growth rate, which, as shown, results from substrate limitation and the pH of the medium. An extended model is provided which describes the observed dynamics of cell growth and main metabolites, and the corresponding kinetic parameters as well as their confidence intervals are estimated. The study is complemented by an uncertainty and outlier analysis. Overall, we demonstrate utility of set-based methods for analyzing cell growth and metabolism under conditions of uncertainty.

Identification of Growth Phases and Influencing Factors in Cultivations with AGE1.HN Cells Using Set-Based Methods

PubMed Central

Borchers, Steffen; Freund, Susann; Rath, Alexander; Streif, Stefan; Reichl, Udo; Findeisen, Rolf

2013-01-01

Production of bio-pharmaceuticals in cell culture, such as mammalian cells, is challenging. Mathematical models can provide support to the analysis, optimization, and the operation of production processes. In particular, unstructured models are suited for these purposes, since they can be tailored to particular process conditions. To this end, growth phases and the most relevant factors influencing cell growth and product formation have to be identified. Due to noisy and erroneous experimental data, unknown kinetic parameters, and the large number of combinations of influencing factors, currently there are only limited structured approaches to tackle these issues. We outline a structured set-based approach to identify different growth phases and the factors influencing cell growth and metabolism. To this end, measurement uncertainties are taken explicitly into account to bound the time-dependent specific growth rate based on the observed increase of the cell concentration. Based on the bounds on the specific growth rate, we can identify qualitatively different growth phases and (in-)validate hypotheses on the factors influencing cell growth and metabolism. We apply the approach to a mammalian suspension cell line (AGE1.HN). We show that growth in batch culture can be divided into two main growth phases. The initial phase is characterized by exponential growth dynamics, which can be described consistently by a relatively simple unstructured and segregated model. The subsequent phase is characterized by a decrease in the specific growth rate, which, as shown, results from substrate limitation and the pH of the medium. An extended model is provided which describes the observed dynamics of cell growth and main metabolites, and the corresponding kinetic parameters as well as their confidence intervals are estimated. The study is complemented by an uncertainty and outlier analysis. Overall, we demonstrate utility of set-based methods for analyzing cell growth and metabolism under conditions of uncertainty. PMID:23936299

Tricritical points in a Vicsek model of self-propelled particles with bounded confidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romensky, Maksym; Lobaskin, Vladimir; Ihle, Thomas

2014-12-01

We study the orientational ordering in systems of self-propelled particles with selective interactions. To introduce the selectivity we augment the standard Vicsek model with a bounded-confidence collision rule: a given particle only aligns to neighbors who have directions quite similar to its own. Neighbors whose directions deviate more than a fixed restriction angle α are ignored. The collective dynamics of this system is studied by agent-based simulations and kinetic mean-field theory. We demonstrate that the reduction of the restriction angle leads to a critical noise amplitude decreasing monotonically with that angle, turning into a power law with exponent 3/2 for small angles. Moreover, for small system sizes we show that upon decreasing the restriction angle, the kind of the transition to polar collective motion changes from continuous to discontinuous. Thus, an apparent tricritical point with different scaling laws is identified and calculated analytically. We investigate the shifting and vanishing of this point due to the formation of density bands as the system size is increased. Agent-based simulations in small systems with large particle velocities show excellent agreement with the kinetic theory predictions. We also find that at very small interaction angles, the polar ordered phase becomes unstable with respect to the apolar phase. We derive analytical expressions for the dependence of the threshold noise on the restriction angle. We show that the mean-field kinetic theory also permits stationary nematic states below a restriction angle of 0.681 π . We calculate the critical noise, at which the disordered state bifurcates to a nematic state, and find that it is always smaller than the threshold noise for the transition from disorder to polar order. The disordered-nematic transition features two tricritical points: At low and high restriction angle, the transition is discontinuous but continuous at intermediate α . We generalize our results to systems that show fragmentation into more than two groups and obtain scaling laws for the transition lines and the corresponding tricritical points. A numerical method to evaluate the nonlinear Fredholm integral equation for the stationary distribution function is also presented. This method is shown to give excellent agreement with agent-based simulations, even in strongly ordered systems at noise values close to zero.

Stationary and oscillatory bound states of dissipative solitons created by third-order dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Skryabin, Dmitry V.; Malomed, Boris A.

2018-06-01

We consider the model of fiber-laser cavities near the zero-dispersion point, based on the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation with the cubic-quintic nonlinearity, including the third-order dispersion (TOD) term. It is well known that this model supports stable dissipative solitons. We demonstrate that the same model gives rise to several families of robust bound states of the solitons, which exists only in the presence of the TOD. There are both stationary and dynamical bound states, with oscillating separation between the bound solitons. Stationary states are multistable, corresponding to different values of the separation. With the increase of the TOD coefficient, the bound state with the smallest separation gives rise the oscillatory state through the Hopf bifurcation. Further growth of TOD leads to a bifurcation transforming the oscillatory limit cycle into a strange attractor, which represents a chaotically oscillating dynamical bound state. Families of multistable three- and four-soliton complexes are found too, the ones with the smallest separation between the solitons again ending by a transition to oscillatory states through the Hopf bifurcation.

Ductile Tearing of Thin Aluminum Plates Under Blast Loading. Predictions with Fully Coupled Models and Biaxial Material Response Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corona, Edmundo; Gullerud, Arne S.; Haulenbeek, Kimberly K.

2015-06-01

The work presented in this report concerns the response and failure of thin 2024- T3 aluminum alloy circular plates to a blast load produced by the detonation of a nearby spherical charge. The plates were fully clamped around the circumference and the explosive charge was located centrally with respect to the plate. The principal objective was to conduct a numerical model validation study by comparing the results of predictions to experimental measurements of plate deformation and failure for charges with masses in the vicinity of the threshold between no tearing and tearing of the plates. Stereo digital image correlation datamore » was acquired for all tests to measure the deflection and strains in the plates. The size of the virtual strain gage in the measurements, however, was relatively large, so the strain measurements have to be interpreted accordingly as lower bounds of the actual strains in the plate and of the severity of the strain gradients. A fully coupled interaction model between the blast and the deflection of the structure was considered. The results of the validation exercise indicated that the model predicted the deflection of the plates reasonably accurately as well as the distribution of strain on the plate. The estimation of the threshold charge based on a critical value of equivalent plastic strain measured in a bulge test, however, was not accurate. This in spite of efforts to determine the failure strain of the aluminum sheet under biaxial stress conditions. Further work is needed to be able to predict plate tearing with some degree of confidence. Given the current technology, at least one test under the actual blast conditions where the plate tears is needed to calibrate the value of equivalent plastic strain when failure occurs in the numerical model. Once that has been determined, the question of the explosive mass value at the threshold could be addressed with more confidence.« less

Deciphering the nonlocal entanglement entropy of fracton topological orders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Bowen; Lu, Yuan-Ming

2018-04-01

The ground states of topological orders condense extended objects and support topological excitations. This nontrivial property leads to nonzero topological entanglement entropy Stopo for conventional topological orders. Fracton topological order is an exotic class of models which is beyond the description of TQFT. With some assumptions about the condensates and the topological excitations, we derive a lower bound of the nonlocal entanglement entropy Snonlocal (a generalization of Stopo). The lower bound applies to Abelian stabilizer models including conventional topological orders as well as type-I and type-II fracton models, and it could be used to distinguish them. For fracton models, the lower bound shows that Snonlocal could obtain geometry-dependent values, and Snonlocal is extensive for certain choices of subsystems, including some choices which always give zero for TQFT. The stability of the lower bound under local perturbations is discussed.

Consistency relation and non-Gaussianity in a Galileon inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asadi, Kosar; Nozari, Kourosh, E-mail: k.asadi@stu.umz.ac.ir, E-mail: knozari@umz.ac.ir

2016-12-01

We study a particular Galileon inflation in the light of Planck2015 observational data in order to constraint the model parameter space. We study the spectrum of the primordial modes of the density perturbations by expanding the action up to the second order in perturbations. Then we pursue by expanding the action up to the third order and find the three point correlation functions to find the amplitude of the non-Gaussianity of the primordial perturbations in this setup. We study the amplitude of the non-Gaussianity both in equilateral and orthogonal configurations and test the model with recent observational data. Our analysismore » shows that for some ranges of the non-minimal coupling parameter, the model is consistent with observation and it is also possible to have large non-Gaussianity which would be observable by future improvements in experiments. Moreover, we obtain the tilt of the tensor power spectrum and test the standard inflationary consistency relation ( r = −8 n {sub T} ) against the latest bounds from the Planck2015 dataset. We find a slight deviation from the standard consistency relation in this setup. Nevertheless, such a deviation seems not to be sufficiently remarkable to be detected confidently.« less

Towards the development of rapid screening techniques for shale gas core properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cave, Mark R.; Vane, Christopher; Kemp, Simon; Harrington, Jon; Cuss, Robert

2013-04-01

Shale gas has been produced for many years in the U.S.A. and forms around 8% of total their natural gas production. Recent testing for gas on the Fylde Coast in Lancashire UK suggests there are potentially large reserves which could be exploited. The increasing significance of shale gas has lead to the need for deeper understanding of shale behaviour. There are many factors which govern whether a particular shale will become a shale gas resource and these include: i) Organic matter abundance, type and thermal maturity; ii) Porosity-permeability relationships and pore size distribution; iii) Brittleness and its relationship to mineralogy and rock fabric. Measurements of these properties require sophisticated and time consuming laboratory techniques (Josh et al 2012), whereas rapid screening techniques could provide timely results which could improve the efficiency and cost effectiveness of exploration. In this study, techniques which are portable and provide rapid on-site measurements (X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) and Infra-red (IR) spectroscopy) have been calibrated against standard laboratory techniques (Rock-Eval 6 analyser-Vinci Technologies) and Powder whole-rock XRD analysis was carried out using a PANalytical X'Pert Pro series diffractometer equipped with a cobalt-target tube, X'Celerator detector and operated at 45kV and 40mA, to predict properties of potential shale gas material from core material from the Bowland shale Roosecote, south Cumbria. Preliminary work showed that, amongst various mineralogical and organic matter properties of the core, regression models could be used so that the total organic carbon content could be predicted from the IR spectra with a 95 percentile confidence prediction error of 0.6% organic carbon, the free hydrocarbons could be predicted with a 95 percentile confidence prediction error of 0.6 mgHC/g rock, the bound hydrocarbons could be predicted with a 95 percentile confidence prediction error of 2.4 mgHC/g rock, mica content with a 95 percentile confidence prediction error of 14% and quartz content with a 95 percentile confidence prediction error of 14% . References M. Josh *, L. Esteban, C. Delle Piane, J. Sarout, D.N. Dewhurst, M.B. Clennell 2012. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering , 88-89, 107-124.

The dynamics of aloof baby Skyrmions

DOE PAGES

Salmi, Petja; Sutcliffe, Paul

2016-01-25

The aloof baby Skyrme model is a (2+1)-dimensional theory with solitons that are lightly bound. It is a low-dimensional analogue of a similar Skyrme model in (3+1)- dimensions, where the lightly bound solitons have binding energies comparable to nuclei. A previous study of static solitons in the aloof baby Skyrme model revealed that multi-soliton bound states have a cluster structure, with constituents that preserve their individual identities due to the short-range repulsion and long-range attraction between solitons. Furthermore, there are many different local energy minima that are all well-described by a simple binary species particle model. In this paper wemore » present the first results on soliton dynamics in the aloof baby Skyrme model. Numerical field theory simulations reveal that the lightly bound cluster structure results in a variety of exotic soliton scattering events that are novel in comparison to standard Skyrmion scattering. A dynamical version of the binary species point particle model is shown to provide a good qualitative description of the dynamics.« less

The dynamics of aloof baby Skyrmions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmi, Petja; Sutcliffe, Paul

2016-01-01

The aloof baby Skyrme model is a (2+1)-dimensional theory with solitons that are lightly bound. It is a low-dimensional analogue of a similar Skyrme model in (3+1)-dimensions, where the lightly bound solitons have binding energies comparable to nuclei. A previous study of static solitons in the aloof baby Skyrme model revealed that multi-soliton bound states have a cluster structure, with constituents that preserve their individual identities due to the short-range repulsion and long-range attraction between solitons. Furthermore, there are many different local energy minima that are all well-described by a simple binary species particle model. In this paper we present the first results on soliton dynamics in the aloof baby Skyrme model. Numerical field theory simulations reveal that the lightly bound cluster structure results in a variety of exotic soliton scattering events that are novel in comparison to standard Skyrmion scattering. A dynamical version of the binary species point particle model is shown to provide a good qualitative description of the dynamics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salmi, Petja; Sutcliffe, Paul

The aloof baby Skyrme model is a (2+1)-dimensional theory with solitons that are lightly bound. It is a low-dimensional analogue of a similar Skyrme model in (3+1)- dimensions, where the lightly bound solitons have binding energies comparable to nuclei. A previous study of static solitons in the aloof baby Skyrme model revealed that multi-soliton bound states have a cluster structure, with constituents that preserve their individual identities due to the short-range repulsion and long-range attraction between solitons. Furthermore, there are many different local energy minima that are all well-described by a simple binary species particle model. In this paper wemore » present the first results on soliton dynamics in the aloof baby Skyrme model. Numerical field theory simulations reveal that the lightly bound cluster structure results in a variety of exotic soliton scattering events that are novel in comparison to standard Skyrmion scattering. A dynamical version of the binary species point particle model is shown to provide a good qualitative description of the dynamics.« less

Current Global Absolute Plate Velocities Inferred from the Trends of Hotspot Tracks: Implications for Motion between Groups of Hotspots and Comparison and Combination with Absolute Velocities Inferred from the Orientation of Seismic Anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Gordon, R. G.; Zheng, L.

2016-12-01

Hotspot tracks are widely used to estimate the absolute velocities of plates, i.e., relative to the lower mantle. Knowledge of current motion between hotspots is important for both plate kinematics and mantle dynamics and informs the discussion on the origin of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. Following Morgan & Morgan (2007), we focus only on the trends of young hotspot tracks and omit volcanic propagation rates. The dispersion of the trends can be partitioned into between-plate and within-plate dispersion. Applying the method of Gripp & Gordon (2002) to the hotspot trend data set of Morgan & Morgan (2007) constrained to the MORVEL relative plate angular velocities (DeMets et al., 2010) results in a standard deviation of the 56 hotspot trends of 22°. The largest angular misfits tend to occur on the slowest moving plates. Alternatively, estimation of best-fitting poles to hotspot tracks on the nine individual plates, results in a standard deviation of trends of only 13°, a statistically significant reduction from the introduction of 15 additional adjustable parameters. If all of the between-plate misfit is due to motion of groups of hotspots (beneath different plates), nominal velocities relative to the mean hotspot reference frame range from 1 to 4 mm/yr with the lower bounds ranging from 1 to 3 mm/yr and the greatest upper bound being 8 mm/yr. These are consistent with bounds on motion between Pacific and Indo-Atlantic hotspots over the past ≈50 Ma, which range from zero (lower bound) to 8 to 13 mm/yr (upper bounds) (Koivisto et al., 2014). We also determine HS4-MORVEL, a new global set of plate angular velocities relative to the hotspots constrained to consistency with the MORVEL relative plate angular velocities, using a two-tier analysis similar to that used by Zheng et al. (2014) to estimate the SKS-MORVEL global set of absolute plate velocities fit to the orientation of seismic anisotropy. We find that the 95% confidence limits of HS4-MORVEL and SKS-MORVEL overlap substantially and that the two sets of angular velocities differ insignificantly. Thus we combine the two sets of angular velocities to estimate ABS-MORVEL, an optimal set of global angular velocities consistent with both hotspot tracks and seismic anisotropy. ABS-MORVEL has more compact confidence limits than either SKS-MORVEL or HS4-MORVEL.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Complexity Bounds for Quantum Computation

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-22

Programs Trustees of Boston University Boston, MA 02215 - Complexity Bounds for Quantum Computation REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION...Complexity Bounds for Quantum Comp[utation Report Title ABSTRACT This project focused on upper and lower bounds for quantum computability using constant...classical computation models, particularly emphasizing new examples of where quantum circuits are more powerful than their classical counterparts. A second

Error assessment of biogeochemical models by lower bound methods (NOMMA-1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauerland, Volkmar; Löptien, Ulrike; Leonhard, Claudine; Oschlies, Andreas; Srivastav, Anand

2018-03-01

Biogeochemical models, capturing the major feedbacks of the pelagic ecosystem of the world ocean, are today often embedded into Earth system models which are increasingly used for decision making regarding climate policies. These models contain poorly constrained parameters (e.g., maximum phytoplankton growth rate), which are typically adjusted until the model shows reasonable behavior. Systematic approaches determine these parameters by minimizing the misfit between the model and observational data. In most common model approaches, however, the underlying functions mimicking the biogeochemical processes are nonlinear and non-convex. Thus, systematic optimization algorithms are likely to get trapped in local minima and might lead to non-optimal results. To judge the quality of an obtained parameter estimate, we propose determining a preferably large lower bound for the global optimum that is relatively easy to obtain and that will help to assess the quality of an optimum, generated by an optimization algorithm. Due to the unavoidable noise component in all observations, such a lower bound is typically larger than zero. We suggest deriving such lower bounds based on typical properties of biogeochemical models (e.g., a limited number of extremes and a bounded time derivative). We illustrate the applicability of the method with two real-world examples. The first example uses real-world observations of the Baltic Sea in a box model setup. The second example considers a three-dimensional coupled ocean circulation model in combination with satellite chlorophyll a.

Spread of entanglement and causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casini, Horacio; Liu, Hong; Mezei, Márk

2016-07-01

We investigate causality constraints on the time evolution of entanglement entropy after a global quench in relativistic theories. We first provide a general proof that the so-called tsunami velocity is bounded by the speed of light. We then generalize the free particle streaming model of [1] to general dimensions and to an arbitrary entanglement pattern of the initial state. In more than two spacetime dimensions the spread of entanglement in these models is highly sensitive to the initial entanglement pattern, but we are able to prove an upper bound on the normalized rate of growth of entanglement entropy, and hence the tsunami velocity. The bound is smaller than what one gets for quenches in holographic theories, which highlights the importance of interactions in the spread of entanglement in many-body systems. We propose an interacting model which we believe provides an upper bound on the spread of entanglement for interacting relativistic theories. In two spacetime dimensions with multiple intervals, this model and its variations are able to reproduce intricate results exhibited by holographic theories for a significant part of the parameter space. For higher dimensions, the model bounds the tsunami velocity at the speed of light. Finally, we construct a geometric model for entanglement propagation based on a tensor network construction for global quenches.

The Lag Model, a Turbulence Model for Wall Bounded Flows Including Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Michael E.; Coakley, Thomas J.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A new class of turbulence model is described for wall bounded, high Reynolds number flows. A specific turbulence model is demonstrated, with results for favorable and adverse pressure gradient flowfields. Separation predictions are as good or better than either Spalart Almaras or SST models, do not require specification of wall distance, and have similar or reduced computational effort compared with these models.

Nearly Supersymmetric Dark Atoms

DOE PAGES

Behbahani, Siavosh R.; Jankowiak, Martin; Rube, Tomas; ...

2011-01-01

Theories of dark matter that support bound states are an intriguing possibility for the identity of the missing mass of the Universe. This article proposes a class of models of supersymmetric composite dark matter where the interactions with the Standard Model communicate supersymmetry breaking to the dark sector. In these models, supersymmetry breaking can be treated as a perturbation on the spectrum of bound states. Using a general formalism, the spectrum with leading supersymmetry effects is computed without specifying the details of the binding dynamics. The interactions of the composite states with the Standard Model are computed, and several benchmarkmore » models are described. General features of nonrelativistic supersymmetric bound states are emphasized.« less

On the likelihood of single-peaked preferences.

PubMed

Lackner, Marie-Louise; Lackner, Martin

2017-01-01

This paper contains an extensive combinatorial analysis of the single-peaked domain restriction and investigates the likelihood that an election is single-peaked. We provide a very general upper bound result for domain restrictions that can be defined by certain forbidden configurations. This upper bound implies that many domain restrictions (including the single-peaked restriction) are very unlikely to appear in a random election chosen according to the Impartial Culture assumption. For single-peaked elections, this upper bound can be refined and complemented by a lower bound that is asymptotically tight. In addition, we provide exact results for elections with few voters or candidates. Moreover, we consider the Pólya urn model and the Mallows model and obtain lower bounds showing that single-peakedness is considerably more likely to appear for certain parameterizations.

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for General CFD Calculations: Theory and Software Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.

Cell-bound lipases from Burkholderia sp. ZYB002: gene sequence analysis, expression, enzymatic characterization, and 3D structural model.

PubMed

Shu, Zhengyu; Lin, Hong; Shi, Shaolei; Mu, Xiangduo; Liu, Yanru; Huang, Jianzhong

2016-05-03

The whole-cell lipase from Burkholderia cepacia has been used as a biocatalyst in organic synthesis. However, there is no report in the literature on the component or the gene sequence of the cell-bound lipase from this species. Qualitative analysis of the cell-bound lipase would help to illuminate the regulation mechanism of gene expression and further improve the yield of the cell-bound lipase by gene engineering. Three predictive cell-bound lipases, lipA, lipC21 and lipC24, from Burkholderia sp. ZYB002 were cloned and expressed in E. coli. Both LipA and LipC24 displayed the lipase activity. LipC24 was a novel mesophilic enzyme and displayed preference for medium-chain-length acyl groups (C10-C14). The 3D structural model of LipC24 revealed the open Y-type active site. LipA displayed 96 % amino acid sequence identity with the known extracellular lipase. lipA-inactivation and lipC24-inactivation decreased the total cell-bound lipase activity of Burkholderia sp. ZYB002 by 42 % and 14 %, respectively. The cell-bound lipase activity from Burkholderia sp. ZYB002 originated from a multi-enzyme mixture with LipA as the main component. LipC24 was a novel lipase and displayed different enzymatic characteristics and structural model with LipA. Besides LipA and LipC24, other type of the cell-bound lipases (or esterases) should exist.

Logical-Rule Models of Classification Response Times: A Synthesis of Mental-Architecture, Random-Walk, and Decision-Bound Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fific, Mario; Little, Daniel R.; Nosofsky, Robert M.

2010-01-01

We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli…

Recent Advances in Understanding Radiation Damage in Reactor Cavity Concrete

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosseel, Thomas M; Field, Kevin G; Le Pape, Yann

License renewal up to 60 years and the possibility of subsequent license renewal to 80 years has resulted in a renewed focus on long-term aging of materials at nuclear power plants (NPPs) including concrete. Large irreplaceable sections of most nuclear generating stations include concrete. The Expanded Materials Degradation Analysis, jointly performed by the Department of Energy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Nuclear Industry, identified the urgent need to develop a consistent knowledge base on irradiation effects in concrete (Graves et al., (2014)). Much of the historical mechanical performance data of irradiated concrete (Hilsdorf et al., (1978)) does not accurately reflectmore » typical radiation conditions in NPPs or conditions out to 60 or 80 years of radiation exposure (Kontani et al., (2011)). To address these potential gaps in the knowledge base, the Electric Power Research Institute and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, are working to better understand radiation damage as a degradation mechanism. This paper outlines recent progress toward: 1) assessing the radiation environment in concrete biological shields and defining the upper bound of the neutron and gamma dose levels expected in the biological shield for extended operation, and estimating adsorbed dose, 2) evaluating opportunities to harvest and test irradiated concrete from international NPPs, 3) evaluating opportunities to irradiate prototypical concrete and its components under accelerated neutron and gamma dose levels to establish conservative bounds and inform damage models, 4) developing improved models to enhance the understanding of the effects of radiation on concrete and 5) establishing an international collaborative research and information exchange effort to leverage capabilities and knowledge including developing cooperative test programs to improve confidence in data obtained from various concretes and from accelerated irradiation experiments.« less

Statistical plant set estimation using Schroeder-phased multisinusoidal input design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bayard, D. S.

1992-01-01

A frequency domain method is developed for plant set estimation. The estimation of a plant 'set' rather than a point estimate is required to support many methods of modern robust control design. The approach here is based on using a Schroeder-phased multisinusoid input design which has the special property of placing input energy only at the discrete frequency points used in the computation. A detailed analysis of the statistical properties of the frequency domain estimator is given, leading to exact expressions for the probability distribution of the estimation error, and many important properties. It is shown that, for any nominal parametric plant estimate, one can use these results to construct an overbound on the additive uncertainty to any prescribed statistical confidence. The 'soft' bound thus obtained can be used to replace 'hard' bounds presently used in many robust control analysis and synthesis methods.

Search for a gamma-ray line feature from a group of nearby galaxy clusters with Fermi LAT Pass 8 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yun-Feng; Shen, Zhao-Qiang; Li, Xiang; Fan, Yi-Zhong; Huang, Xiaoyuan; Lei, Shi-Jun; Feng, Lei; Liang, En-Wei; Chang, Jin

2016-05-01

Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound objects in the Universe and may be suitable targets for indirect dark matter searches. With 85 months of Fermi LAT Pass 8 publicly available data, we analyze the gamma-ray emission in the direction of 16 nearby galaxy clusters with an unbinned likelihood analysis. No statistically or globally significant γ -ray line feature is identified and a tentative line signal may present at ˜43 GeV . The 95% confidence level upper limits on the velocity-averaged cross section of dark matter particles annihilating into double γ rays (i.e., ⟨σ v ⟩χχ →γ γ) are derived. Unless very optimistic boost factors of dark matter annihilation in these galaxy clusters have been assumed, such constraints are much weaker than the bounds set by the Galactic γ -ray data.

Precision Measurement of the Electron's Electric Dipole Moment Using Trapped Molecular Ions.

PubMed

Cairncross, William B; Gresh, Daniel N; Grau, Matt; Cossel, Kevin C; Roussy, Tanya S; Ni, Yiqi; Zhou, Yan; Ye, Jun; Cornell, Eric A

2017-10-13

We describe the first precision measurement of the electron's electric dipole moment (d_{e}) using trapped molecular ions, demonstrating the application of spin interrogation times over 700 ms to achieve high sensitivity and stringent rejection of systematic errors. Through electron spin resonance spectroscopy on ^{180}Hf^{19}F^{+} in its metastable ^{3}Δ_{1} electronic state, we obtain d_{e}=(0.9±7.7_{stat}±1.7_{syst})×10^{-29}  e cm, resulting in an upper bound of |d_{e}|<1.3×10^{-28}  e cm (90% confidence). Our result provides independent confirmation of the current upper bound of |d_{e}|<9.4×10^{-29}  e cm [J. Baron et al., New J. Phys. 19, 073029 (2017)NJOPFM1367-263010.1088/1367-2630/aa708e], and offers the potential to improve on this limit in the near future.

Qualitative fusion technique based on information poor system and its application to factor analysis for vibration of rolling bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Xintao; Wang, Zhongyu

2008-10-01

For some methods of stability analysis of a system using statistics, it is difficult to resolve the problems of unknown probability distribution and small sample. Therefore, a novel method is proposed in this paper to resolve these problems. This method is independent of probability distribution, and is useful for small sample systems. After rearrangement of the original data series, the order difference and two polynomial membership functions are introduced to estimate the true value, the lower bound and the supper bound of the system using fuzzy-set theory. Then empirical distribution function is investigated to ensure confidence level above 95%, and the degree of similarity is presented to evaluate stability of the system. Cases of computer simulation investigate stable systems with various probability distribution, unstable systems with linear systematic errors and periodic systematic errors and some mixed systems. The method of analysis for systematic stability is approved.

Thermal Destruction Of CB Contaminants Bound On Building ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Symposium Paper An experimental and theoretical program has been initiated by the U.S. EPA to investigate issues of chemical/biological agent destruction in incineration systems when the agent in question is bound on common porous building interior materials. This program includes 3-dimensional computational fluid dynamics modeling with matrix-bound agent destruction kinetics, bench-scale experiments to determine agent destruction kinetics while bound on various matrices, and pilot-scale experiments to scale-up the bench-scale experiments to a more practical scale. Finally, model predictions are made to predict agent destruction and combustion conditions in two full-scale incineration systems that are typical of modern combustor design.

Conformational phases of membrane bound cytoskeletal filaments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quint, David A.; Grason, Gregory; Gopinathan, Ajay

2013-03-01

Membrane bound cytoskeletal filaments found in living cells are employed to carry out many types of activities including cellular division, rigidity and transport. When these biopolymers are bound to a membrane surface they may take on highly non-trivial conformations as compared to when they are not bound. This leads to the natural question; What are the important interactions which drive these polymers to particular conformations when they are bound to a surface? Assuming that there are binding domains along the polymer which follow a periodic helical structure set by the natural monomeric handedness, these bound conformations must arise from the interplay of the intrinsic monomeric helicity and membrane binding. To probe this question, we study a continuous model of an elastic filament with intrinsic helicity and map out the conformational phases of this filament for various mechanical and structural parameters in our model, such as elastic stiffness and intrinsic twist of the filament. Our model allows us to gain insight into the possible mechanisms which drive real biopolymers such as actin and tubulin in eukaryotes and their prokaryotic cousins MreB and FtsZ to take on their functional conformations within living cells.

40 CFR Appendix Xvii to Part 86 - Procedure for Determining Vehicle Emission Control Technology Category/Fuel Reactivity Adjustment...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...-1-pentene 4.42 00592-41-6 1-hexene 4.42 00110-54-3 n-hexane 0.98 13269-52-8 trans-3-hexene 6.69...” calculated for the i'th test vehicle. n = number of test vehicles. (ii) The 95 percent upper confidence bound...-methylpropene 5.31 00106-98-9 1-butene 8.91 00106-99-0 1,3-butadiene 10.89 00106-97-8 n-butane 1.02 00624-64-6...

40 CFR Appendix Xvii to Part 86 - Procedure for Determining Vehicle Emission Control Technology Category/Fuel Reactivity Adjustment...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...-1-pentene 4.42 00592-41-6 1-hexene 4.42 00110-54-3 n-hexane 0.98 13269-52-8 trans-3-hexene 6.69...” calculated for the i'th test vehicle. n = number of test vehicles. (ii) The 95 percent upper confidence bound...-methylpropene 5.31 00106-98-9 1-butene 8.91 00106-99-0 1,3-butadiene 10.89 00106-97-8 n-butane 1.02 00624-64-6...

BICEP2 / Keck Array IX: New bounds on anisotropies of CMB polarization rotation and implications for axionlike particles and primordial magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

BICEP2 Collaboration; Keck Array Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Ahmed, Z.; Aikin, R. W.; Alexander, K. D.; Barkats, D.; Benton, S. J.; Bischoff, C. A.; Bock, J. J.; Bowens-Rubin, R.; Brevik, J. A.; Buder, I.; Bullock, E.; Buza, V.; Connors, J.; Crill, B. P.; Duband, L.; Dvorkin, C.; Filippini, J. P.; Fliescher, S.; Germaine, T. St.; Ghosh, T.; Grayson, J.; Harrison, S.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hilton, G. C.; Hui, H.; Irwin, K. D.; Kang, J.; Karkare, K. S.; Karpel, E.; Kaufman, J. P.; Keating, B. G.; Kefeli, S.; Kernasovskiy, S. A.; Kovac, J. M.; Kuo, C. L.; Larson, N.; Leitch, E. M.; Megerian, K. G.; Moncelsi, L.; Namikawa, T.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nguyen, H. T.; O'Brient, R.; Ogburn, R. W.; Pryke, C.; Richter, S.; Schillaci, A.; Schwarz, R.; Sheehy, C. D.; Staniszewski, Z. K.; Steinbach, B.; Sudiwala, R. V.; Teply, G. P.; Thompson, K. L.; Tolan, J. E.; Tucker, C.; Turner, A. D.; Vieregg, A. G.; Weber, A. C.; Wiebe, D. V.; Willmert, J.; Wong, C. L.; Wu, W. L. K.; Yoon, K. W.

2017-11-01

We present the strongest constraints to date on anisotropies of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization rotation derived from 150 GHz data taken by the BICEP2 & Keck Array CMB experiments up to and including the 2014 observing season (BK14). The definition of the polarization angle in BK14 maps has gone through self-calibration in which the overall angle is adjusted to minimize the observed T B and E B power spectra. After this procedure, the Q U maps lose sensitivity to a uniform polarization rotation but are still sensitive to anisotropies of polarization rotation. This analysis places constraints on the anisotropies of polarization rotation, which could be generated by CMB photons interacting with axionlike pseudoscalar fields or Faraday rotation induced by primordial magnetic fields. The sensitivity of BK14 maps (˜3 μ K -arc min ) makes it possible to reconstruct anisotropies of the polarization rotation angle and measure their angular power spectrum much more precisely than previous attempts. Our data are found to be consistent with no polarization rotation anisotropies, improving the upper bound on the amplitude of the rotation angle spectrum by roughly an order of magnitude compared to the previous best constraints. Our results lead to an order of magnitude better constraint on the coupling constant of the Chern-Simons electromagnetic term ga γ≤7.2 ×10-2/HI (95% confidence) than the constraint derived from the B -mode spectrum, where HI is the inflationary Hubble scale. This constraint leads to a limit on the decay constant of 10-6≲fa/Mpl at mass range of 10-33≤ma≤10-28 eV for r =0.01 , assuming ga γ˜α /(2 π fa) with α denoting the fine structure constant. The upper bound on the amplitude of the primordial magnetic fields is 30 nG (95% confidence) from the polarization rotation anisotropies.

Two-polariton bound states in the Jaynes-Cummings-Hubbard model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, Max T. C.; Law, C. K.

2011-05-15

We examine the eigenstates of the one-dimensional Jaynes-Cummings-Hubbard model in the two-excitation subspace. We discover that two-excitation bound states emerge when the ratio of vacuum Rabi frequency to the tunneling rate between cavities exceeds a critical value. We determine the critical value as a function of the quasimomentum quantum number, and indicate that the bound states carry a strong correlation in which the two polaritons appear to be spatially confined together.

Effects of soft interactions and bound mobility on diffusion in crowded environments: a model of sticky and slippery obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefferson, Michael W.; Norris, Samantha L.; Vernerey, Franck J.; Betterton, Meredith D.; E Hough, Loren

2017-08-01

Crowded environments modify the diffusion of macromolecules, generally slowing their movement and inducing transient anomalous subdiffusion. The presence of obstacles also modifies the kinetics and equilibrium behavior of tracers. While previous theoretical studies of particle diffusion have typically assumed either impenetrable obstacles or binding interactions that immobilize the particle, in many cellular contexts bound particles remain mobile. Examples include membrane proteins or lipids with some entry and diffusion within lipid domains and proteins that can enter into membraneless organelles or compartments such as the nucleolus. Using a lattice model, we studied the diffusive movement of tracer particles which bind to soft obstacles, allowing tracers and obstacles to occupy the same lattice site. For sticky obstacles, bound tracer particles are immobile, while for slippery obstacles, bound tracers can hop without penalty to adjacent obstacles. In both models, binding significantly alters tracer motion. The type and degree of motion while bound is a key determinant of the tracer mobility: slippery obstacles can allow nearly unhindered diffusion, even at high obstacle filling fraction. To mimic compartmentalization in a cell, we examined how obstacle size and a range of bound diffusion coefficients affect tracer dynamics. The behavior of the model is similar in two and three spatial dimensions. Our work has implications for protein movement and interactions within cells.

A Feasibility Study of Nonlinear Spectroscopic Measurement of Magnetic Nanoparticles Targeted to Cancer Cells.

PubMed

Ficko, Bradley W; NDong, Christian; Giacometti, Paolo; Griswold, Karl E; Diamond, Solomon G

2017-05-01

Magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) are an emerging platform for targeted diagnostics in cancer. An important component needed for translation of MNPs is the detection and quantification of targeted MNPs bound to tumor cells. This study explores the feasibility of a multifrequency nonlinear magnetic spectroscopic method that uses excitation and pickup coils and is capable of discriminating between quantities of bound and unbound MNPs in 0.5 ml samples of KB and Igrov human cancer cell lines. The method is tested over a range of five concentrations of MNPs from 0 to 80 μg/ml and five concentrations of cells from 50 to 400 000 count per ml. A linear model applied to the magnetic spectroscopy data was able to simultaneously measure bound and unbound MNPs with agreement between the model-fit and lab assay measurements (p < 0.001). The detectable iron of the presented method to bound and unbound MNPs was < 2 μg in a 0.5 ml sample. The linear model parameters used to determine the quantities of bound and unbound nanoparticles in KB cells were also used to measure the bound and unbound MNP in the Igrov cell line and vice versa. Nonlinear spectroscopic measurement of MNPs may be a useful method for studying targeted MNPs in oncology. Determining the quantity of bound and unbound MNP in an unknown sample using a linear model represents an exciting opportunity to translate multifrequency nonlinear spectroscopy methods to in vivo applications where MNPs could be targeted to cancer cells.

Randomness in the network inhibits cooperation based on the bounded rational collective altruistic decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohdaira, Tetsushi

2014-07-01

Previous studies discussing cooperation employ the best decision that every player knows all information regarding the payoff matrix and selects the strategy of the highest payoff. Therefore, they do not discuss cooperation based on the altruistic decision with limited information (bounded rational altruistic decision). In addition, they do not cover the case where every player can submit his/her strategy several times in a match of the game. This paper is based on Ohdaira's reconsideration of the bounded rational altruistic decision, and also employs the framework of the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG) with sequential strategy. The distinction between this study and the Ohdaira's reconsideration is that the former covers the model of multiple groups, but the latter deals with the model of only two groups. Ohdaira's reconsideration shows that the bounded rational altruistic decision facilitates much more cooperation in the PDG with sequential strategy than Ohdaira and Terano's bounded rational second-best decision does. However, the detail of cooperation of multiple groups based on the bounded rational altruistic decision has not been resolved yet. This study, therefore, shows how randomness in the network composed of multiple groups affects the increase of the average frequency of mutual cooperation (cooperation between groups) based on the bounded rational altruistic decision of multiple groups. We also discuss the results of the model in comparison with related studies which employ the best decision.

Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market.

PubMed

Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Rego, Henio H A; Silva, Jonathas N; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H Eugene

2017-01-01

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.

Determining relative error bounds for the CVBEM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hromadka, T.V.

1985-01-01

The Complex Variable Boundary Element Methods provides a measure of relative error which can be utilized to subsequently reduce the error or provide information for further modeling analysis. By maximizing the relative error norm on each boundary element, a bound on the total relative error for each boundary element can be evaluated. This bound can be utilized to test CVBEM convergence, to analyze the effects of additional boundary nodal points in reducing the modeling error, and to evaluate the sensitivity of resulting modeling error within a boundary element from the error produced in another boundary element as a function of geometric distance. ?? 1985.

Upper bounds on superpartner masses from upper bounds on the Higgs boson mass.

PubMed

Cabrera, M E; Casas, J A; Delgado, A

2012-01-13

The LHC is putting bounds on the Higgs boson mass. In this Letter we use those bounds to constrain the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) parameter space using the fact that, in supersymmetry, the Higgs mass is a function of the masses of sparticles, and therefore an upper bound on the Higgs mass translates into an upper bound for the masses for superpartners. We show that, although current bounds do not constrain the MSSM parameter space from above, once the Higgs mass bound improves big regions of this parameter space will be excluded, putting upper bounds on supersymmetry (SUSY) masses. On the other hand, for the case of split-SUSY we show that, for moderate or large tanβ, the present bounds on the Higgs mass imply that the common mass for scalars cannot be greater than 10(11)  GeV. We show how these bounds will evolve as LHC continues to improve the limits on the Higgs mass.

Randomized noninferiority trial of telephone versus in-person genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Schwartz, Marc D; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis B; Peshkin, Beth N; Mandelblatt, Jeanne; Nusbaum, Rachel; Huang, An-Tsun; Chang, Yaojen; Graves, Kristi; Isaacs, Claudine; Wood, Marie; McKinnon, Wendy; Garber, Judy; McCormick, Shelley; Kinney, Anita Y; Luta, George; Kelleher, Sarah; Leventhal, Kara-Grace; Vegella, Patti; Tong, Angie; King, Lesley

2014-03-01

Although guidelines recommend in-person counseling before BRCA1/BRCA2 gene testing, genetic counseling is increasingly offered by telephone. As genomic testing becomes more common, evaluating alternative delivery approaches becomes increasingly salient. We tested whether telephone delivery of BRCA1/2 genetic counseling was noninferior to in-person delivery. Participants (women age 21 to 85 years who did not have newly diagnosed or metastatic cancer and lived within a study site catchment area) were randomly assigned to usual care (UC; n = 334) or telephone counseling (TC; n = 335). UC participants received in-person pre- and post-test counseling; TC participants completed all counseling by telephone. Primary outcomes were knowledge, satisfaction, decision conflict, distress, and quality of life; secondary outcomes were equivalence of BRCA1/2 test uptake and costs of delivering TC versus UC. TC was noninferior to UC on all primary outcomes. At 2 weeks after pretest counseling, knowledge (d = 0.03; lower bound of 97.5% CI, -0.61), perceived stress (d = -0.12; upper bound of 97.5% CI, 0.21), and satisfaction (d = -0.16; lower bound of 97.5% CI, -0.70) had group differences and confidence intervals that did not cross their 1-point noninferiority limits. Decision conflict (d = 1.1; upper bound of 97.5% CI, 3.3) and cancer distress (d = -1.6; upper bound of 97.5% CI, 0.27) did not cross their 4-point noninferiority limit. Results were comparable at 3 months. TC was not equivalent to UC on BRCA1/2 test uptake (UC, 90.1%; TC, 84.2%). TC yielded cost savings of $114 per patient. Genetic counseling can be effectively and efficiently delivered via telephone to increase access and decrease costs.

Analysis of a grid ionospheric vertical delay and its bounding errors over West African sub-Saharan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, O. E.; Otero Villamide, X.; Paparini, C.; Radicella, S. M.; Nava, B.

2017-02-01

Investigating the effects of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) ionosphere and space weather on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is very crucial, and a key to successful implementation of a GNSS augmentation system (SBAS) over the equatorial and low-latitude regions. A possible ionospheric vertical delay (GIVD, Grid Ionospheric Vertical Delay) broadcast at a Ionospheric Grid Point (IGP) and its confidence bounds errors (GIVE, Grid Ionospheric Vertical Error) are analyzed and compared with the ionospheric vertical delay estimated at a nearby user location over the West African Sub-Saharan region. Since African sub-Saharan ionosphere falls within the EIA region, which is always characterized by a disturbance in form of irregularities after sunset, and the disturbance is even more during the geomagnetically quiet conditions unlike middle latitudes, the need to have a reliable ionospheric threat model to cater for the nighttime ionospheric plasma irregularities for the future SBAS user is essential. The study was done during the most quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions on October 2013. A specific low latitude EGNOS-like algorithm, based on single thin layer model, was engaged to simulate SBAS message in the study. Our preliminary results indicate that, the estimated GIVE detects and protects a potential SBAS user against sampled ionospheric plasma irregularities over the region with a steep increment in GIVE to non-monitored after local sunset to post midnight. This corresponds to the onset of the usual ionospheric plasma irregularities in the region. The results further confirm that the effects of the geomagnetic storms on the ionosphere are not consistent in affecting GNSS applications over the region. Finally, this paper suggests further work to be investigated in order to improve the threat integrity model activity, and thereby enhance the availability of the future SBAS over African sub-Saharan region.

The effects of a confidant and a peer group on the well-being of single elders.

PubMed

Gupta, V; Korte, C

1994-01-01

A study of 100 elderly people was carried out to compare the predictions of well-being derived from the confidant model with those derived from the Weiss model. The confidant model predicts that the most important feature of a person's social network for the well-being of that person is whether or not the person has a confidant. The Weiss model states that different persons are needed to fulfill the different needs of the person and in particular that a confidant is important to the need for intimacy and emotional security while a peer group of social friends is needed to fulfill sociability and identity needs. The two models were evaluated by comparing the relative influence of the confidant variable with the peer group variable on subject's well-being. Regression analysis was carried out on the well-being measure using as predictor variables the confidant variable, peer group variable, age, health, and financial status. The confidant and peer group variables were of equal importance to well-being, thus confirming the Weiss model.

RICE bounds on cosmogenic neutrino fluxes and interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Shahid

2005-04-01

Assuming standard model interactions we calculate shower rates induced by cosmogenic neutrinos in ice, and we bound the cosmogenic neutrino fluxes using RICE 2000-2004 results. Next we assume new interactions due to extra- dimensional, low-scale gravity (i.e. black hole production and decay; graviton mediated deep inelastic scattering) and calculate enhanced shower rates induced by cosmogenic neutrinos in ice. With the help of RICE 2000-2004 results, we survey bounds on low scale gravity parameters for a range of cosmogenic neutrino flux models.

On bound-states of the Gross Neveu model with massive fundamental fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frishman, Yitzhak; Sonnenschein, Jacob

2018-01-01

In the search for QFT's that admit boundstates, we reinvestigate the two dimensional Gross-Neveu model, but with massive fermions. By computing the self-energy for the auxiliary boundstate field and the effective potential, we show that there are no bound states around the lowest minimum, but there is a meta-stable bound state around the other minimum, a local one. The latter decays by tunneling. We determine the dependence of its lifetime on the fermion mass and coupling constant.

Bounds on quantum confinement effects in metal nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, G. Neal; Genov, Dentcho A.

2018-03-01

Quantum size effects on the permittivity of metal nanoparticles are investigated using the quantum box model. Explicit upper and lower bounds are derived for the permittivity and relaxation rates due to quantum confinement effects. These bounds are verified numerically, and the size dependence and frequency dependence of the empirical Drude size parameter is extracted from the model. Results suggest that the common practice of empirically modifying the dielectric function can lead to inaccurate predictions for highly uniform distributions of finite-sized particles.

Tri-critical behavior of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model on a Kagomé lattice: Effective-field theory and Rigorous bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Jander P.; Sá Barreto, F. C.

2016-01-01

Spin correlation identities for the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model on Kagomé lattice are derived and combined with rigorous correlation inequalities lead to upper bounds on the critical temperature. From the spin correlation identities the mean field approximation and the effective field approximation results for the magnetization, the critical frontiers and the tricritical points are obtained. The rigorous upper bounds on the critical temperature improve over those effective-field type theories results.

Limits on the Higgs boson lifetime and width from its decay to four charged leptons

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, Vardan

2015-10-22

Constraints on the lifetime and width of the Higgs boson are obtained from H → ZZ → 4ℓ events using data recorded by the CMS experiment during the LHC run 1 with an integrated luminosity of 5.1 and 19.7 fb -1 at a center-of-mass energy of 7 and 8 TeV, respectively. The measurement of the Higgs boson lifetime is derived from its flight distance in the CMS detector with an upper bound of τ H < 1.9 × 10 -13 s at the 95% confidence level (C.L.), corresponding to a lower bound on the width of Γ H > 3.5more » × 10 -9 MeV. The measurement of the width is obtained from an off-shell production technique, generalized to include anomalous couplings of the Higgs boson to two electroweak bosons. From our measurement, a joint constraint is set on the Higgs boson width and a parameter f ΛQ that expresses an anomalous coupling contribution as an on-shell cross-section fraction. Additionally, the limit on the Higgs boson width is Γ H<46 MeV with f ΛQ unconstrained and Γ H < 26 MeV for f ΛQ = 0 at the 95% C.L. The constraint f ΛQ < 3.8 × 10 -3 at the 95% C.L. is obtained for the expected standard model Higgs boson width.« less

Coma cluster ultradiffuse galaxies are not standard radio galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struble, Mitchell F.

2018-02-01

Matching members in the Coma cluster catalogue of ultradiffuse galaxies (UDGs) from SUBARU imaging with a very deep radio continuum survey source catalogue of the cluster using the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) within a rectangular region of ∼1.19 deg2 centred on the cluster core reveals matches consistent with random. An overlapping set of 470 UDGs and 696 VLA radio sources in this rectangular area finds 33 matches within a separation of 25 arcsec; dividing the sample into bins with separations bounded by 5, 10, 20 and 25 arcsec finds 1, 4, 17 and 11 matches. An analytical model estimate, based on the Poisson probability distribution, of the number of randomly expected matches within these same separation bounds is 1.7, 4.9, 19.4 and 14.2, each, respectively, consistent with the 95 per cent Poisson confidence intervals of the observed values. Dividing the data into five clustercentric annuli of 0.1° and into the four separation bins, finds the same result. This random match of UDGs with VLA sources implies that UDGs are not radio galaxies by the standard definition. Those VLA sources having integrated flux >1 mJy at 1.4 GHz in Miller, Hornschemeier and Mobasher without SDSS galaxy matches are consistent with the known surface density of background radio sources. We briefly explore the possibility that some unresolved VLA sources near UDGs could be young, compact, bright, supernova remnants of Type Ia events, possibly in the intracluster volume.

Flight Test Results of an Angle of Attack and Angle of Sideslip Calibration Method Using Output-Error Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siu, Marie-Michele; Martos, Borja; Foster, John V.

2013-01-01

As part of a joint partnership between the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) and the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI), research on advanced air data calibration methods has been in progress. This research was initiated to expand a novel pitot-static calibration method that was developed to allow rapid in-flight calibration for the NASA Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research (AirSTAR) facility. This approach uses Global Positioning System (GPS) technology coupled with modern system identification methods that rapidly computes optimal pressure error models over a range of airspeed with defined confidence bounds. Subscale flight tests demonstrated small 2-s error bounds with significant reduction in test time compared to other methods. Recent UTSI full scale flight tests have shown airspeed calibrations with the same accuracy or better as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accepted GPS 'four-leg' method in a smaller test area and in less time. The current research was motivated by the desire to extend this method for inflight calibration of angle of attack (AOA) and angle of sideslip (AOS) flow vanes. An instrumented Piper Saratoga research aircraft from the UTSI was used to collect the flight test data and evaluate flight test maneuvers. Results showed that the output-error approach produces good results for flow vane calibration. In addition, maneuvers for pitot-static and flow vane calibration can be integrated to enable simultaneous and efficient testing of each system.

Lateral-Directional Parameter Estimation on the X-48B Aircraft Using an Abstracted, Multi-Objective Effector Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratnayake, Nalin A.; Waggoner, Erin R.; Taylor, Brian R.

2011-01-01

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aerodynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of flight and simulation data must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, time-decorrelation techniques are applied to a model structure selected through stepwise regression for simulated and flight-generated lateral-directional parameter estimation data. A virtual effector model that uses mathematical abstractions to describe the multi-axis effects of clamshell surfaces is developed and applied. Comparisons are made between time history reconstructions and observed data in order to assess the accuracy of the regression model. The Cram r-Rao lower bounds of the estimated parameters are used to assess the uncertainty of the regression model relative to alternative models. Stepwise regression was found to be a useful technique for lateral-directional model design for hybrid-wing-body aircraft, as suggested by available flight data. Based on the results of this study, linear regression parameter estimation methods using abstracted effectors are expected to perform well for hybrid-wing-body aircraft properly equipped for the task.

Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

PubMed

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

Ambient air particulates and particulate-bound mercury Hg(p) concentrations: dry deposition study over a Traffic, Airport, Park (T.A.P.) areas during years of 2011-2012.

PubMed

Fang, Guor-Cheng; Lin, Yen-Heng; Zheng, Yu-Cheng

2016-02-01

The main purpose of this study was to monitor ambient air particles and particulate-bound mercury Hg(p) in total suspended particulate (TSP) concentrations and dry deposition at the Hung Kuang (Traffic), Taichung airport and Westing Park sampling sites during the daytime and nighttime, from 2011 to 2012. In addition, the calculated/measured dry deposition flux ratios of ambient air particles and particulate-bound mercury Hg(p) were also studied with Baklanov & Sorensen and the Williams models. For a particle size of 10 μm, the Baklanov & Sorensen model yielded better predictions of dry deposition of ambient air particulates and particulate-bound mercury Hg(p) at the Hung Kuang (Traffic), Taichung airport and Westing Park sampling site during the daytime and nighttime sampling periods. However, for particulates with sizes 20-23 μm, the results obtained in the study reveal that the Williams model provided better prediction results for ambient air particulates and particulate-bound mercury Hg(p) at all sampling sites in this study.

Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akdeniz, Levent; Salih, Aslıhan Altay; Ok, Süleyman Tuluğ

2007-03-01

This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.

Bounds and inequalities relating h-index, g-index, e-index and generalized impact factor: an improvement over existing models.

PubMed

Abbas, Ash Mohammad

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe some bounds and inequalities relating h-index, g-index, e-index, and generalized impact factor. We derive the bounds and inequalities relating these indexing parameters from their basic definitions and without assuming any continuous model to be followed by any of them. We verify the theorems using citation data for five Price Medalists. We observe that the lower bound for h-index given by Theorem 2, [formula: see text], g ≥ 1, comes out to be more accurate as compared to Schubert-Glanzel relation h is proportional to C(2/3)P(-1/3) for a proportionality constant of 1, where C is the number of citations and P is the number of papers referenced. Also, the values of h-index obtained using Theorem 2 outperform those obtained using Egghe-Liang-Rousseau power law model for the given citation data of Price Medalists. Further, we computed the values of upper bound on g-index given by Theorem 3, g ≤ (h + e), where e denotes the value of e-index. We observe that the upper bound on g-index given by Theorem 3 is reasonably tight for the given citation record of Price Medalists.

Absolute Lower Bound on the Bounce Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Ryosuke; Takimoto, Masahiro

2018-03-01

The decay rate of a false vacuum is determined by the minimal action solution of the tunneling field: bounce. In this Letter, we focus on models with scalar fields which have a canonical kinetic term in N (>2 ) dimensional Euclidean space, and derive an absolute lower bound on the bounce action. In the case of four-dimensional space, we show the bounce action is generically larger than 24 /λcr, where λcr≡max [-4 V (ϕ )/|ϕ |4] with the false vacuum being at ϕ =0 and V (0 )=0 . We derive this bound on the bounce action without solving the equation of motion explicitly. Our bound is derived by a quite simple discussion, and it provides useful information even if it is difficult to obtain the explicit form of the bounce solution. Our bound offers a sufficient condition for the stability of a false vacuum, and it is useful as a quick check on the vacuum stability for given models. Our bound can be applied to a broad class of scalar potential with any number of scalar fields. We also discuss a necessary condition for the bounce action taking a value close to this lower bound.

A Lower Bound on Adiabatic Heating of Compressed Turbulence for Simulation and Model Validation

DOE PAGES

Davidovits, Seth; Fisch, Nathaniel J.

2017-03-31

The energy in turbulent flow can be amplied by compression, when the compression occurs on a timescale shorter than the turbulent dissipation time. This mechanism may play a part in sustaining turbulence in various astrophysical systems, including molecular clouds. The amount of turbulent amplification depends on the net effect of the compressive forcing and turbulent dissipation. By giving an argument for a bound on this dissipation, we give a lower bound for the scaling of the turbulent velocity with compression ratio in compressed turbulence. That is, turbulence undergoing compression will be enhanced at least as much as the bound givenmore » here, subject to a set of caveats that will be outlined. Used as a validation check, this lower bound suggests that some models of compressing astrophysical turbulence are too dissipative. As a result, the technique used highlights the relationship between compressed turbulence and decaying turbulence.« less

Do Reuss and Voigt Bounds Really Bound in High-Pressure Rheology Experiments?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen,J.; Li, L.; Yu, T.

2006-01-01

Energy dispersive synchrotron x-ray diffraction is carried out to measure differential lattice strains in polycrystalline Fe{sub 2}SiO{sub 4} (fayalite) and MgO samples using a multi-element solid state detector during high-pressure deformation. The theory of elastic modeling with Reuss (iso-stress) and Voigt (iso-strain) bounds is used to evaluate the aggregate stress and weight parameter, {alpha} (0{le}{alpha}{le}1), of the two bounds. Results under the elastic assumption quantitatively demonstrate that a highly stressed sample in high-pressure experiments reasonably approximates to an iso-stress state. However, when the sample is plastically deformed, the Reuss and Voigt bounds are no longer valid ({alpha} becomes beyond 1).more » Instead, if plastic slip systems of the sample are known (e.g. in the case of MgO), the aggregate property can be modeled using a visco-plastic self-consistent theory.« less

Systematic assignment of Feshbach resonances via an asymptotic bound state model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goosen, Maikel; Kokkelmans, Servaas

2008-05-01

We present an Asymptotic Bound state Model (ABM), which is useful to predict Feshbach resonances. The model utilizes asymptotic properties of the interaction potentials to represent coupled molecular wavefunctions. The bound states of this system give rise to Feshbach resonances, localized at the magnetic fields of intersection of these bound states with the scattering threshold. This model was very successful to assign measured Feshbach resonances in an ultra cold mixture of ^6Li and ^40K atomsootnotetextE. Wille, F.M. Spiegelhalder, G. Kerner, D. Naik, A. Trenkwalder, G. Hendl, F. Schreck, R. Grimm, T.G. Tiecke, J.T.M. Walraven, S.J.J.M.F. Kokkelmans, E. Tiesinga, P.S. Julienne, arXiv:0711.2916. For this system, the accuracy of the determined scattering lengths is comparable to full coupled channels results. However, it was not possible to predict the width of the resonances. We discuss how an incorporation of threshold effects will improve the model, and we apply it to a mixture of ^87Rb and ^133Cs atoms, where recently Feshbach resonances have been measured.

Minimizers with Bounded Action for the High-Dimensional Frenkel-Kontorova Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Xue-Qing; Wang, Ya-Nan; Qin, Wen-Xin

In Aubry-Mather theory for monotone twist maps or for one-dimensional Frenkel-Kontorova (FK) model with nearest neighbor interactions, each global minimizer (minimal energy configuration) is naturally Birkhoff. However, this is not true for the one-dimensional FK model with non-nearest neighbor interactions or for the high-dimensional FK model. In this paper, we study the Birkhoff property of minimizers with bounded action for the high-dimensional FK model.

Model reduction by trimming for a class of semi-Markov reliability models and the corresponding error bound

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Palumbo, Daniel L.

1991-01-01

Semi-Markov processes have proved to be an effective and convenient tool to construct models of systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration. These models are able to depict complex system architectures and to capture the dynamics of fault arrival and system recovery. A disadvantage of this approach is that the models can be extremely large, which poses both a model and a computational problem. Techniques are needed to reduce the model size. Because these systems are used in critical applications where failure can be expensive, there must be an analytically derived bound for the error produced by the model reduction technique. A model reduction technique called trimming is presented that can be applied to a popular class of systems. Automatic model generation programs were written to help the reliability analyst produce models of complex systems. This method, trimming, is easy to implement and the error bound easy to compute. Hence, the method lends itself to inclusion in an automatic model generator.

Efficiency and its bounds for a quantum Einstein engine at maximum power.

PubMed

Yan, H; Guo, Hao

2012-11-01

We study a quantum thermal engine model for which the heat transfer law is determined by Einstein's theory of radiation. The working substance of the quantum engine is assumed to be a two-level quantum system of which the constituent particles obey Maxwell-Boltzmann (MB), Fermi-Dirac (FD), or Bose-Einstein (BE) distributions, respectively, at equilibrium. The thermal efficiency and its bounds at maximum power of these models are derived and discussed in the long and short thermal contact time limits. The similarity and difference between these models are discussed. We also compare the efficiency bounds of this quantum thermal engine to those of its classical counterpart.

Efficiency and its bounds for thermal engines at maximum power using Newton's law of cooling.

PubMed

Yan, H; Guo, Hao

2012-01-01

We study a thermal engine model for which Newton's cooling law is obeyed during heat transfer processes. The thermal efficiency and its bounds at maximum output power are derived and discussed. This model, though quite simple, can be applied not only to Carnot engines but also to four other types of engines. For the long thermal contact time limit, new bounds, tighter than what were known before, are obtained. In this case, this model can simulate Otto, Joule-Brayton, Diesel, and Atkinson engines. While in the short contact time limit, which corresponds to the Carnot cycle, the same efficiency bounds as that from Esposito et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 105, 150603 (2010)] are derived. In both cases, the thermal efficiency decreases as the ratio between the heat capacities of the working medium during heating and cooling stages increases. This might provide instructions for designing real engines. © 2012 American Physical Society

Information models of software productivity - Limits on productivity growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, Robert C.

1992-01-01

Research into generalized information-metric models of software process productivity establishes quantifiable behavior and theoretical bounds. The models establish a fundamental mathematical relationship between software productivity and the human capacity for information traffic, the software product yield (system size), information efficiency, and tool and process efficiencies. An upper bound is derived that quantifies average software productivity and the maximum rate at which it may grow. This bound reveals that ultimately, when tools, methodologies, and automated assistants have reached their maximum effective state, further improvement in productivity can only be achieved through increasing software reuse. The reuse advantage is shown not to increase faster than logarithmically in the number of reusable features available. The reuse bound is further shown to be somewhat dependent on the reuse policy: a general 'reuse everything' policy can lead to a somewhat slower productivity growth than a specialized reuse policy.

Direct terrestrial test of Lorentz symmetry in electrodynamics to 10-18

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Moritz; Parker, Stephen R.; Kovalchuk, Evgeny V.; Stanwix, Paul L.; Hartnett, John G.; Ivanov, Eugene N.; Peters, Achim; Tobar, Michael E.

2015-09-01

Lorentz symmetry is a foundational property of modern physics, underlying the standard model of particles and general relativity. It is anticipated that these two theories are low-energy approximations of a single theory that is unified and consistent at the Planck scale. Many unifying proposals allow Lorentz symmetry to be broken, with observable effects appearing at Planck-suppressed levels; thus, precision tests of Lorentz invariance are needed to assess and guide theoretical efforts. Here we use ultrastable oscillator frequency sources to perform a modern Michelson-Morley experiment and make the most precise direct terrestrial test to date of Lorentz symmetry for the photon, constraining Lorentz violating orientation-dependent relative frequency changes Δν/ν to 9.2+/-10.7 × 10-19 (95% confidence interval). This order of magnitude improvement over previous Michelson-Morley experiments allows us to set comprehensive simultaneous bounds on nine boost and rotation anisotropies of the speed of light, finding no significant violations of Lorentz symmetry.

Search for n -n ¯ oscillation in Super-Kamiokande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, K.; Hayato, Y.; Iida, T.; Ishihara, K.; Kameda, J.; Koshio, Y.; Minamino, A.; Mitsuda, C.; Miura, M.; Moriyama, S.; Nakahata, M.; Obayashi, Y.; Ogawa, H.; Sekiya, H.; Shiozawa, M.; Suzuki, Y.; Takeda, A.; Takeuchi, Y.; Ueshima, K.; Watanabe, H.; Higuchi, I.; Ishihara, C.; Ishitsuka, M.; Kajita, T.; Kaneyuki, K.; Mitsuka, G.; Nakayama, S.; Nishino, H.; Okumura, K.; Saji, C.; Takenaga, Y.; Clark, S.; Desai, S.; Dufour, F.; Herfurth, A.; Kearns, E.; Likhoded, S.; Litos, M.; Raaf, J. L.; Stone, J. L.; Sulak, L. R.; Wang, W.; Goldhaber, M.; Casper, D.; Cravens, J. P.; Dunmore, J.; Griskevich, J.; Kropp, W. R.; Liu, D. W.; Mine, S.; Regis, C.; Smy, M. B.; Sobel, H. W.; Vagins, M. R.; Ganezer, K. S.; Hartfiel, B.; Hill, J.; Keig, W. E.; Jang, J. S.; Jeoung, I. S.; Kim, J. Y.; Lim, I. T.; Scholberg, K.; Tanimoto, N.; Walter, C. W.; Wendell, R.; Ellsworth, R. W.; Tasaka, S.; Guillian, G.; Learned, J. G.; Matsuno, S.; Messier, M. D.; Ichikawa, A. K.; Ishida, T.; Ishii, T.; Iwashita, T.; Kobayashi, T.; Nakadaira, T.; Nakamura, K.; Nishikawa, K.; Nitta, K.; Oyama, Y.; Suzuki, A. T.; Hasegawa, M.; Maesaka, H.; Nakaya, T.; Sasaki, T.; Sato, H.; Tanaka, H.; Yamamoto, S.; Yokoyama, M.; Haines, T. J.; Dazeley, S.; Hatakeyama, S.; Svoboda, R.; Sullivan, G. W.; Gran, R.; Habig, A.; Fukuda, Y.; Itow, Y.; Koike, T.; Jung, C. K.; Kato, T.; Kobayashi, K.; McGrew, C.; Sarrat, A.; Terri, R.; Yanagisawa, C.; Tamura, N.; Ikeda, M.; Sakuda, M.; Kuno, Y.; Yoshida, M.; Kim, S. B.; Yang, B. S.; Ishizuka, T.; Okazawa, H.; Choi, Y.; Seo, H. K.; Gando, Y.; Hasegawa, T.; Inoue, K.; Ishii, H.; Nishijima, K.; Ishino, H.; Watanabe, Y.; Koshiba, M.; Totsuka, Y.; Chen, S.; Deng, Z.; Liu, Y.; Kielczewska, D.; Berns, H. G.; Shiraishi, K. K.; Thrane, E.; Washburn, K.; Wilkes, R. J.; Super-Kamiokande Collaboration

2015-04-01

A search for neutron-antineutron (n -n ¯) oscillation was undertaken in Super-Kamiokande using the 1489 live-day or 2.45 ×1034 neutron-year exposure data. This process violates both baryon and baryon minus lepton numbers by an absolute value of two units and is predicted by a large class of hypothetical models where the seesaw mechanism is incorporated to explain the observed tiny neutrino masses and the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Universe. No evidence for n -n ¯ oscillation was found; the lower limit of the lifetime for neutrons bound in 16O, in an analysis that included all of the significant sources of experimental uncertainties, was determined to be 1.9 ×1032 years at the 90% confidence level. The corresponding lower limit for the oscillation time of free neutrons was calculated to be 2.7 ×108 s using a theoretical value of the nuclear suppression factor of 0.517 ×1023 s-1 and its uncertainty.

Fine-scale structure of the San Andreas fault zone and location of the SAFOD target earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thurber, C.; Roecker, S.; Zhang, H.; Baher, S.; Ellsworth, W.

2004-01-01

We present results from the tomographic analysis of seismic data from the Parkfield area using three different inversion codes. The models provide a consistent view of the complex velocity structure in the vicinity of the San Andreas, including a sharp velocity contrast across the fault. We use the inversion results to assess our confidence in the absolute location accuracy of a potential target earthquake. We derive two types of accuracy estimates, one based on a consideration of the location differences from the three inversion methods, and the other based on the absolute location accuracy of "virtual earthquakes." Location differences are on the order of 100-200 m horizontally and up to 500 m vertically. Bounds on the absolute location errors based on the "virtual earthquake" relocations are ??? 50 m horizontally and vertically. The average of our locations places the target event epicenter within about 100 m of the SAF surface trace. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Adaptive Detector Arrays for Optical Communications Receivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, V.; Srinivasan, M.

2000-01-01

The structure of an optimal adaptive array receiver for ground-based optical communications is described and its performance investigated. Kolmogorov phase screen simulations are used to model the sample functions of the focal-plane signal distribution due to turbulence and to generate realistic spatial distributions of the received optical field. This novel array detector concept reduces interference from background radiation by effectively assigning higher confidence levels at each instant of time to those detector elements that contain significant signal energy and suppressing those that do not. A simpler suboptimum structure that replaces the continuous weighting function of the optimal receiver by a hard decision on the selection of the signal detector elements also is described and evaluated. Approximations and bounds to the error probability are derived and compared with the exact calculations and receiver simulation results. It is shown that, for photon-counting receivers observing Poisson-distributed signals, performance improvements of approximately 5 dB can be obtained over conventional single-detector photon-counting receivers, when operating in high background environments.

Turning Around along the Cosmic Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jounghun; Yepes, Gustavo

2016-12-01

A bound violation designates a case in which the turnaround radius of a bound object exceeds the upper limit imposed by the spherical collapse model based on the standard ΛCDM paradigm. Given that the turnaround radius of a bound object is a stochastic quantity and that the spherical model overly simplifies the true gravitational collapse, which actually proceeds anisotropically along the cosmic web, the rarity of the occurrence of a bound violation may depend on the web environment. Assuming a Planck cosmology, we numerically construct the bound-zone peculiar velocity profiles along the cosmic web (filaments and sheets) around the isolated groups with virial mass {M}{{v}}≥slant 3× {10}13 {h}-1 {M}⊙ identified in the Small MultiDark Planck simulations and determine the radial distances at which their peculiar velocities equal the Hubble expansion speed as the turnaround radii of the groups. It is found that although the average turnaround radii of the isolated groups are well below the spherical bound limit on all mass scales, the bound violations are not forbidden for individual groups, and the cosmic web has an effect of reducing the rarity of the occurrence of a bound violation. Explaining that the spherical bound limit on the turnaround radius in fact represents the threshold distance up to which the intervention of the external gravitational field in the bound-zone peculiar velocity profiles around the nonisolated groups stays negligible, we discuss the possibility of using the threshold distance scale to constrain locally the equation of state of dark energy.

The Incidence of Sixteenth Century Cosmic Models in Modern Texts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maene, S. A.; Best, J. S.; Usher, P. D.

1999-12-01

In the sixteenth century, the bounded cosmological models of Copernicus (1543) and Tycho Brahe (1588), and the unbounded model of Thomas Digges (1576), vied with the bounded geocentric model of Ptolemy (c. 140 AD). The work of the philosopher Giordano Bruno in 1584 lent further support to the Digges model. Despite the eventual acceptance of the unbounded universe, analysis of over 100 modern introductory astronomy texts reveals that these early unbounded models are mentioned infrequently. The ratio of mentions of Digges' model to Copernicus' model has the surprisingly low value of R = 0.08. The philosophical speculation of Bruno receives mention more than twice as often (R = 0.17). The expectation that these early unbounded models warrant inclusion in astronomy texts is supported both by modern hindsight and by the literature of the time. In Shakespeare's "Hamlet" of c. 1601, Prince Hamlet suffers from two transformations. According to the cosmic allegorical model, one transformation changes the bounded geocentricism of Ptolemy to the bounded heliocentricism of Copernicus, while the other completes the change to Digges' model of the infinite universe of suns. This interpretation and the modern world view suggest that both transformations should receive equal mention and thus that the ratio R in introductory texts should be close to unity. This work was supported in part by the NASA West Virginia Space Grant Consortium.

Bounding uncertainty in volumetric geometric models for terrestrial lidar observations of ecosystems.

PubMed

Paynter, Ian; Genest, Daniel; Peri, Francesco; Schaaf, Crystal

2018-04-06

Volumetric models with known biases are shown to provide bounds for the uncertainty in estimations of volume for ecologically interesting objects, observed with a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) instrument. Bounding cuboids, three-dimensional convex hull polygons, voxels, the Outer Hull Model and Square Based Columns (SBCs) are considered for their ability to estimate the volume of temperate and tropical trees, as well as geomorphological features such as bluffs and saltmarsh creeks. For temperate trees, supplementary geometric models are evaluated for their ability to bound the uncertainty in cylinder-based reconstructions, finding that coarser volumetric methods do not currently constrain volume meaningfully, but may be helpful with further refinement, or in hybridized models. Three-dimensional convex hull polygons consistently overestimate object volume, and SBCs consistently underestimate volume. Voxel estimations vary in their bias, due to the point density of the TLS data, and occlusion, particularly in trees. The response of the models to parametrization is analysed, observing unexpected trends in the SBC estimates for the drumlin dataset. Establishing that this result is due to the resolution of the TLS observations being insufficient to support the resolution of the geometric model, it is suggested that geometric models with predictable outcomes can also highlight data quality issues when they produce illogical results.

Bounding uncertainty in volumetric geometric models for terrestrial lidar observations of ecosystems

PubMed Central

Genest, Daniel; Peri, Francesco; Schaaf, Crystal

2018-01-01

Volumetric models with known biases are shown to provide bounds for the uncertainty in estimations of volume for ecologically interesting objects, observed with a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) instrument. Bounding cuboids, three-dimensional convex hull polygons, voxels, the Outer Hull Model and Square Based Columns (SBCs) are considered for their ability to estimate the volume of temperate and tropical trees, as well as geomorphological features such as bluffs and saltmarsh creeks. For temperate trees, supplementary geometric models are evaluated for their ability to bound the uncertainty in cylinder-based reconstructions, finding that coarser volumetric methods do not currently constrain volume meaningfully, but may be helpful with further refinement, or in hybridized models. Three-dimensional convex hull polygons consistently overestimate object volume, and SBCs consistently underestimate volume. Voxel estimations vary in their bias, due to the point density of the TLS data, and occlusion, particularly in trees. The response of the models to parametrization is analysed, observing unexpected trends in the SBC estimates for the drumlin dataset. Establishing that this result is due to the resolution of the TLS observations being insufficient to support the resolution of the geometric model, it is suggested that geometric models with predictable outcomes can also highlight data quality issues when they produce illogical results. PMID:29503722

The interplay of intrinsic and extrinsic bounded noises in biomolecular networks.

PubMed

Caravagna, Giulio; Mauri, Giancarlo; d'Onofrio, Alberto

2013-01-01

After being considered as a nuisance to be filtered out, it became recently clear that biochemical noise plays a complex role, often fully functional, for a biomolecular network. The influence of intrinsic and extrinsic noises on biomolecular networks has intensively been investigated in last ten years, though contributions on the co-presence of both are sparse. Extrinsic noise is usually modeled as an unbounded white or colored gaussian stochastic process, even though realistic stochastic perturbations are clearly bounded. In this paper we consider Gillespie-like stochastic models of nonlinear networks, i.e. the intrinsic noise, where the model jump rates are affected by colored bounded extrinsic noises synthesized by a suitable biochemical state-dependent Langevin system. These systems are described by a master equation, and a simulation algorithm to analyze them is derived. This new modeling paradigm should enlarge the class of systems amenable at modeling. We investigated the influence of both amplitude and autocorrelation time of a extrinsic Sine-Wiener noise on: (i) the Michaelis-Menten approximation of noisy enzymatic reactions, which we show to be applicable also in co-presence of both intrinsic and extrinsic noise, (ii) a model of enzymatic futile cycle and (iii) a genetic toggle switch. In (ii) and (iii) we show that the presence of a bounded extrinsic noise induces qualitative modifications in the probability densities of the involved chemicals, where new modes emerge, thus suggesting the possible functional role of bounded noises.

Bayesian Estimation of Panel Data Fractional Response Models with Endogeneity: An Application to Standardized Test Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kessler, Lawrence M.

2013-01-01

In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as…

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Estimation of αL, velocity, Kd and confidence limits from tracer injection test data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broermann, James; Bassett, R.L.; Weeks, Edwin P.; Borgstrom, Mark

1997-01-01

Bromide and boron were used as tracers during an injection experiment conducted at an artificial recharge facility near Stanton, Texas. The Ogallala aquifer at the Stanton site represents a heterogeneous alluvial environment and provides the opportunity to report scale dependent dispersivities at observation distances of 2 to 15 m in this setting. Values of longitudinal dispersivities are compared with other published values. Water samples were collected at selected depths both from piezometers and from fully screened observation wells at radii of 2, 5, 10 and 15 m. An exact analytical solution is used to simulate the concentration breakthrough curves and estimate longitudinal dispersivities and velocity parameters. Greater confidence can be placed on these data because the estimated parameters are error bounded using the bootstrap method. The non-conservative behavior of boron transport in clay rich sections of the aquifer were quantified with distribution coefficients by using bromide as a conservative reference tracer.

Estimation of αL, velocity, Kd, and confidence limits from tracer injection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broermann, James; Bassett, R.L.; Weeks, Edwin P.; Borgstrom, Mark

1997-01-01

Bromide and boron were used as tracers during an injection experiment conducted at an artificial recharge facility near Stanton, Texas. The Ogallala aquifer at the Stanton site represents a heterogeneous alluvial environment and provides the opportunity to report scale dependent dispersivities at observation distances of 2 to 15 m in this setting. Values of longitudinal dispersivities are compared with other published values. Water samples were collected at selected depths both from piezometers and from fully screened observation wells at radii of 2, 5, 10 and 15 m. An exact analytical solution is used to simulate the concentration breakthrough curves and estimate longitudinal dispersivities and velocity parameters. Greater confidence can be placed on these data because the estimated parameters are error bounded using the bootstrap method. The non-conservative behavior of boron transport in clay rich sections of the aquifer were quantified with distribution coefficients by using bromide as a conservative reference tracer.

Equivalence principle and bound kinetic energy.

PubMed

Hohensee, Michael A; Müller, Holger; Wiringa, R B

2013-10-11

We consider the role of the internal kinetic energy of bound systems of matter in tests of the Einstein equivalence principle. Using the gravitational sector of the standard model extension, we show that stringent limits on equivalence principle violations in antimatter can be indirectly obtained from tests using bound systems of normal matter. We estimate the bound kinetic energy of nucleons in a range of light atomic species using Green's function Monte Carlo calculations, and for heavier species using a Woods-Saxon model. We survey the sensitivities of existing and planned experimental tests of the equivalence principle, and report new constraints at the level of between a few parts in 10(6) and parts in 10(8) on violations of the equivalence principle for matter and antimatter.

The role of categorization and scale endpoint comparisons in numerical information processing: A two-process model.

PubMed

Tao, Tao; Wyer, Robert S; Zheng, Yuhuang

2017-03-01

We propose a two-process conceptualization of numerical information processing to describe how people form impressions of a score that is described along a bounded scale. According to the model, people spontaneously categorize a score as high or low. Furthermore, they compare the numerical discrepancy between the score and the endpoint of the scale to which it is closer, if they are not confident of their categorization, and use implications of this comparison as a basis for judgment. As a result, their evaluation of the score is less extreme when the range of numbers along the scale is large (e.g., from 0 to 100) than when it is small (from 0 to 10). Six experiments support this two-process model and demonstrate its generalizability. Specifically, the magnitude of numbers composing the scale has less impact on judgments (a) when the score being evaluated is extreme, (b) when individuals are unmotivated to engage in endpoint comparison processes (i.e., they are low in need for cognition), and (c) when they are unable to do so (i.e., they are under cognitive load). Moreover, the endpoint to which individuals compare the score can depend on their regulatory focus. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Image informative maps for component-wise estimating parameters of signal-dependent noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uss, Mykhail L.; Vozel, Benoit; Lukin, Vladimir V.; Chehdi, Kacem

2013-01-01

We deal with the problem of blind parameter estimation of signal-dependent noise from mono-component image data. Multispectral or color images can be processed in a component-wise manner. The main results obtained rest on the assumption that the image texture and noise parameters estimation problems are interdependent. A two-dimensional fractal Brownian motion (fBm) model is used for locally describing image texture. A polynomial model is assumed for the purpose of describing the signal-dependent noise variance dependence on image intensity. Using the maximum likelihood approach, estimates of both fBm-model and noise parameters are obtained. It is demonstrated that Fisher information (FI) on noise parameters contained in an image is distributed nonuniformly over intensity coordinates (an image intensity range). It is also shown how to find the most informative intensities and the corresponding image areas for a given noisy image. The proposed estimator benefits from these detected areas to improve the estimation accuracy of signal-dependent noise parameters. Finally, the potential estimation accuracy (Cramér-Rao Lower Bound, or CRLB) of noise parameters is derived, providing confidence intervals of these estimates for a given image. In the experiment, the proposed and existing state-of-the-art noise variance estimators are compared for a large image database using CRLB-based statistical efficiency criteria.

A Model-Free No-arbitrage Price Bound for Variance Options

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonnans, J. Frederic, E-mail: frederic.bonnans@inria.fr; Tan Xiaolu, E-mail: xiaolu.tan@polytechnique.edu

2013-08-01

We suggest a numerical approximation for an optimization problem, motivated by its applications in finance to find the model-free no-arbitrage bound of variance options given the marginal distributions of the underlying asset. A first approximation restricts the computation to a bounded domain. Then we propose a gradient projection algorithm together with the finite difference scheme to solve the optimization problem. We prove the general convergence, and derive some convergence rate estimates. Finally, we give some numerical examples to test the efficiency of the algorithm.

Bounded Parametric Model Checking for Elementary Net Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapik, Michał; Szreter, Maciej; Penczek, Wojciech

Bounded Model Checking (BMC) is an efficient verification method for reactive systems. BMC has been applied so far to verification of properties expressed in (timed) modal logics, but never to their parametric extensions. In this paper we show, for the first time that BMC can be extended to PRTECTL - a parametric extension of the existential version of CTL. To this aim we define a bounded semantics and a translation from PRTECTL to SAT. The implementation of the algorithm for Elementary Net Systems is presented, together with some experimental results.

Coexistence of bounded and unbounded motions in a bouncing ball model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marò, Stefano

2013-05-01

We consider the model describing the vertical motion of a ball falling with constant acceleration on a wall and elastically reflected. The wall is supposed to move in the vertical direction according to a given periodic function f. We apply the Aubry-Mather theory to the generating function in order to prove the existence of bounded motions with prescribed mean time between the bounces. As the existence of unbounded motions is known, it is possible to find a class of functions f that allow both bounded and unbounded motions.

Re-derived overclosure bound for the inert doublet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondini, S.; Laine, M.

2017-08-01

We apply a formalism accounting for thermal effects (such as modified Sommerfeld effect; Salpeter correction; decohering scatterings; dissociation of bound states), to one of the simplest WIMP-like dark matter models, associated with an "inert" Higgs doublet. A broad temperature range T ˜ M/20 . . . M/104 is considered, stressing the importance and less-understood nature of late annihilation stages. Even though only weak interactions play a role, we find that resummed real and virtual corrections increase the tree-level overclosure bound by 1 . . . 18%, depending on quartic couplings and mass splittings.

Upper and lower bounds for semi-Markov reliability models of reconfigurable systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, A. L.

1984-01-01

This paper determines the information required about system recovery to compute the reliability of a class of reconfigurable systems. Upper and lower bounds are derived for these systems. The class consists of those systems that satisfy five assumptions: the components fail independently at a low constant rate, fault occurrence and system reconfiguration are independent processes, the reliability model is semi-Markov, the recovery functions which describe system configuration have small means and variances, and the system is well designed. The bounds are easy to compute, and examples are included.

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Mital, Subodh K.

2008-01-01

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Flight control application of new stability robustness bounds for linear uncertain systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, Rama K.

1993-01-01

This paper addresses the issue of obtaining bounds on the real parameter perturbations of a linear state-space model for robust stability. Based on Kronecker algebra, new, easily computable sufficient bounds are derived that are much less conservative than the existing bounds since the technique is meant for only real parameter perturbations (in contrast to specializing complex variation case to real parameter case). The proposed theory is illustrated with application to several flight control examples.

Curvature bound from gravitational catalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gies, Holger; Martini, Riccardo

2018-04-01

We determine bounds on the curvature of local patches of spacetime from the requirement of intact long-range chiral symmetry. The bounds arise from a scale-dependent analysis of gravitational catalysis and its influence on the effective potential for the chiral order parameter, as induced by fermionic fluctuations on a curved spacetime with local hyperbolic properties. The bound is expressed in terms of the local curvature scalar measured in units of a gauge-invariant coarse-graining scale. We argue that any effective field theory of quantum gravity obeying this curvature bound is safe from chiral symmetry breaking through gravitational catalysis and thus compatible with the simultaneous existence of chiral fermions in the low-energy spectrum. With increasing number of dimensions, the curvature bound in terms of the hyperbolic scale parameter becomes stronger. Applying the curvature bound to the asymptotic safety scenario for quantum gravity in four spacetime dimensions translates into bounds on the matter content of particle physics models.

The effectiveness of collaborative problem based physics learning (CPBPL) model to improve student’s self-confidence on physics learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahani, B. K.; Suprapto, N.; Suliyanah; Lestari, N. A.; Jauhariyah, M. N. R.; Admoko, S.; Wahyuni, S.

2018-03-01

In the previous research, Collaborative Problem Based Physic Learning (CPBPL) model has been developed to improve student’s science process skills, collaborative problem solving, and self-confidence on physics learning. This research is aimed to analyze the effectiveness of CPBPL model towards the improvement of student’s self-confidence on physics learning. This research implemented quasi experimental design on 140 senior high school students who were divided into 4 groups. Data collection was conducted through questionnaire, observation, and interview. Self-confidence measurement was conducted through Self-Confidence Evaluation Sheet (SCES). The data was analyzed using Wilcoxon test, n-gain, and Kruskal Wallis test. Result shows that: (1) There is a significant score improvement on student’s self-confidence on physics learning (α=5%), (2) n-gain value student’s self-confidence on physics learning is high, and (3) n-gain average student’s self-confidence on physics learning was consistent throughout all groups. It can be concluded that CPBPL model is effective to improve student’s self-confidence on physics learning.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Analysis of 2H-Evaporator Acid Cleaning Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hay, M.; Diprete, D.; Edwards, T.

The 2H-Evaporator acid cleaning solution samples were analyzed by SRNL to determine a composition for the scale present in the evaporator before recent acid cleaning. Composite samples were formed from the solution samples from the two acid cleaning cycles. The solution composition was converted to a weight percent scale solids basis under an assumed chemical composition. The scale composition produced from the acid cleaning solution samples indicates a concentration of 6.85 wt% uranium. An upper bound, onesided 95% confidence interval on the weight percent uranium value may be given as 6.9 wt% + 1.645 × 0.596 wt% = 7.9 wt%.more » The comparison of the composition from the current acid cleaning solutions with the composition of recent scale samples along with the thermodynamic modeling results provides reasonable assurance that the sample results provide a good representation of the overall scale composition in the evaporator prior to acid cleaning. The small amount of scale solids dissolved in the 1.5 M nitric acid during the evaporator cleaning process likely produced only a small amount of precipitation based on modeling results and the visual appearance of the samples.« less

Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

PubMed Central

Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-01-01

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

Measures and limits of models of fixation selection.

PubMed

Wilming, Niklas; Betz, Torsten; Kietzmann, Tim C; König, Peter

2011-01-01

Models of fixation selection are a central tool in the quest to understand how the human mind selects relevant information. Using this tool in the evaluation of competing claims often requires comparing different models' relative performance in predicting eye movements. However, studies use a wide variety of performance measures with markedly different properties, which makes a comparison difficult. We make three main contributions to this line of research: First we argue for a set of desirable properties, review commonly used measures, and conclude that no single measure unites all desirable properties. However the area under the ROC curve (a classification measure) and the KL-divergence (a distance measure of probability distributions) combine many desirable properties and allow a meaningful comparison of critical model performance. We give an analytical proof of the linearity of the ROC measure with respect to averaging over subjects and demonstrate an appropriate correction of entropy-based measures like KL-divergence for small sample sizes in the context of eye-tracking data. Second, we provide a lower bound and an upper bound of these measures, based on image-independent properties of fixation data and between subject consistency respectively. Based on these bounds it is possible to give a reference frame to judge the predictive power of a model of fixation selection. We provide open-source python code to compute the reference frame. Third, we show that the upper, between subject consistency bound holds only for models that predict averages of subject populations. Departing from this we show that incorporating subject-specific viewing behavior can generate predictions which surpass that upper bound. Taken together, these findings lay out the required information that allow a well-founded judgment of the quality of any model of fixation selection and should therefore be reported when a new model is introduced.

Functional status mediates the association between peripheral neuropathy and health-related quality of life in individuals with diabetes.

PubMed

Riandini, Tessa; Wee, Hwee Lin; Khoo, Eric Y H; Tai, Bee Choo; Wang, Wilson; Koh, Gerald C H; Tai, E Shyong; Tavintharan, Subramaniam; Chandran, Kurumbian; Hwang, Siew Wai; Venkataraman, Kavita

2018-02-01

To examine differences in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) between patients with and without diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), and whether these differences can be explained by functional deficits. This was a cross-sectional study of 160 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, 80 with DPN and 80 without. Assessments included HRQoL (health utility score derived from EQ-5D-5L), functional status measurements [muscle strength, timed up and go (TUG), five times sit-to-stand (FTSTS), functional reach, body sway velocity] and self-reported balance confidence [Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale]. Mean utility scores were 0.67 ± 0.14 and 0.77 ± 0.16 in patients with and without DPN, respectively (p < 0.001). Patients with DPN had lower great toe extensor strength (6.4 ± 1.8 vs 7.6 ± 2.8 lbs, p = 0.001), greater body sway velocity (2.40 ± 1.31 vs 1.90 ± 0.52 mm/s, p = 0.002), slower TUG (12.1 ± 4.6 vs 10.1 ± 2.3 s, p < 0.001) and FTSTS (15.8 ± 5.8 vs 13.9 ± 5.4 s, p = 0.03) scores, and lower ABC score (73.4 ± 21.3 vs 82.6 ± 16.9, p = 0.003), compared to those without DPN. On stepwise multiple regression, DPN status, FTSTS, body sway velocity, BMI, diabetes duration, pain, and gender explained 38% of HRQoL variance. Addition of ABC score into the model explained 45% of variance. Results from structural equation modelling showed that DPN had direct effects on HRQoL and indirect effects through FTSTS, body sway velocity, and ABC score, with χ 2  = 8.075 (p = 0.044), root mean square error of approximation = 0.103 (lower bound 0.015, upper bound 0.191), Comparative Fit Index = 0.966, Tucker-Lewis Index = 0.887, and Standardized Root Mean Square Residual = 0.053. Patients with DPN have worse HRQoL compared to patients without DPN, partly mediated by functional status parameters. Effective interventions targeting functional status may be beneficial in improving HRQoL in these patients.

W-Z-top-quark bags

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crichigno, Marcos P.; Shuryak, Edward; Flambaum, Victor V.

2010-10-01

We discuss a new family of multiquanta-bound states in the standard model which exist due to the mutual Higgs-based attraction of the heaviest members of the standard model, namely, gauge quanta W, Z, and (anti)top quarks, t, t. We use a self-consistent mean-field approximation, up to a rather large particle number N. In this paper we do not focus on weakly bound, nonrelativistic bound states, but rather on 'bags' in which the Higgs vacuum expectation value is significantly modified or depleted. The minimal number N above which such states appear strongly depends on the ratio of the Higgs mass tomore » the masses of W, Z, t, t: For a light Higgs mass, m{sub H{approx}}50 GeV, bound states start from N{approx}O(10), but for a ''realistic'' Higgs mass, m{sub H{approx}}100 GeV, one finds metastable/bound W, Z bags only for N{approx}O(1000). We also found that in the latter case pure top bags disappear for all N, although top quarks can still be well bound to the W bags. Anticipating the cosmological applications (discussed in the following Article [Phys. Rev. D 82, 073019]) of these bags as 'doorway states' for baryosynthesis, we also consider here the existence of such metastable bags at finite temperatures, when standard-model parameters such as Higgs, gauge, and top masses are significantly modified.« less

Two Decades of WRF/CMAQ simulations over the continental United States: New approaches for performing dynamic model evaluation and determining confidence limits for ozone exceedances

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the application of models for forecasting and regulatory assessments is furthered by conducting four types of model evaluation: operational, dynamic, diagnostic, and probabilistic. Operational model evaluation alone does not reveal the confidence limits that can be ...

Vacuum stability in the U(1)χ extended model with vanishing scalar potential at the Planck scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haba, Naoyuki; Yamaguchi, Yuya

2015-09-01

We investigate the vacuum stability in a scale invariant local {U}(1)_χ model with vanishing scalar potential at the Planck scale. We find that it is impossible to realize the Higgs mass of 125 GeV while keeping the Higgs quartic coupling λ _H positive in all energy scales, that is, the same as the standard model. Once one allows λ _H<0, the lower bounds of the Z' boson mass ares obtained through the positive definiteness of the scalar mass squared eigenvalues, while the bounds are smaller than the LHC bounds. On the other hand, the upper bounds strongly depend on the number of relevant Majorana Yukawa couplings of the right-handed neutrinos N_ν . Considering decoupling effects of the Z' boson and the right-handed neutrinos, the condition of the singlet scalar quartic coupling λ _φ >0 gives the upper bound in the N_ν =1 case, while it does not constrain the N_ν =2 and 3 cases. In particular, we find that the Z' boson mass is tightly restricted for the N_ν =1 case as M_{Z'} &lsim 3.7 TeV.

Local Rademacher Complexity: sharper risk bounds with and without unlabeled samples.

PubMed

Oneto, Luca; Ghio, Alessandro; Ridella, Sandro; Anguita, Davide

2015-05-01

We derive in this paper a new Local Rademacher Complexity risk bound on the generalization ability of a model, which is able to take advantage of the availability of unlabeled samples. Moreover, this new bound improves state-of-the-art results even when no unlabeled samples are available. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-independent limits and constraints on extended theories of gravity from cosmic reconstruction techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Cruz-Dombriz, Álvaro; Dunsby, Peter K. S.; Luongo, Orlando; Reverberi, Lorenzo

2016-12-01

The onset of dark energy domination depends on the particular gravitational theory driving the cosmic evolution. Model independent techniques are crucial to test the both the present ΛCDM cosmological paradigm and alternative theories, making the least possible number of assumptions about the Universe. In this paper we investigate whether cosmography is able to distinguish between different gravitational theories, by determining bounds on model parameters for three different extensions of General Relativity, namely quintessence, F(𝒯) and f(R) gravitational theories. We expand each class of theories in powers of redshift z around the present time, making no additional assumptions. This procedure is an extension of previous work and can be seen as the most general approach for testing extended theories of gravity through the use of cosmography. In the case of F(𝒯) and f(R) theories, we show that some assumptions on model parameters often made in previous works are superfluous or even unjustified. We use data from the Union 2.1 supernovae catalogue, baryonic acoustic oscillation data and H(z) differential age compilations, which probe cosmology on different scales of the cosmological evolution. We perform a Monte Carlo analysis using a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a Gelman-Rubin convergence criterion, reporting 1-σ and 2-σ confidence levels. To do so, we perform two distinct fits, assuming only data within z < 1 first and then without limitations in redshift. We obtain the corresponding numerical intervals in which coefficients span, and find that the data is compatible the ΛCDM limit of all three theories at the 1-σ level, while still compatible with quite a large portion of parameter space. We compare our results to the truncated ΛCDM paradigm, demonstrating that our bounds divert from the expectations of previous works, showing that the permitted regions of coefficients are significantly modified and in general widened with respect to values usually reported in the existing literature. Finally, we test the extended theories through the Bayesian selection criteria AIC and BIC.

Model-independent limits and constraints on extended theories of gravity from cosmic reconstruction techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cruz-Dombriz, Álvaro de la; Dunsby, Peter K.S.; Luongo, Orlando

The onset of dark energy domination depends on the particular gravitational theory driving the cosmic evolution. Model independent techniques are crucial to test the both the present ΛCDM cosmological paradigm and alternative theories, making the least possible number of assumptions about the Universe. In this paper we investigate whether cosmography is able to distinguish between different gravitational theories, by determining bounds on model parameters for three different extensions of General Relativity, namely quintessence, F (Τ) and f ( R ) gravitational theories. We expand each class of theories in powers of redshift z around the present time, making no additionalmore » assumptions. This procedure is an extension of previous work and can be seen as the most general approach for testing extended theories of gravity through the use of cosmography. In the case of F (Τ) and f ( R ) theories, we show that some assumptions on model parameters often made in previous works are superfluous or even unjustified. We use data from the Union 2.1 supernovae catalogue, baryonic acoustic oscillation data and H ( z ) differential age compilations, which probe cosmology on different scales of the cosmological evolution. We perform a Monte Carlo analysis using a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a Gelman-Rubin convergence criterion, reporting 1-σ and 2-σ confidence levels. To do so, we perform two distinct fits, assuming only data within z < 1 first and then without limitations in redshift. We obtain the corresponding numerical intervals in which coefficients span, and find that the data is compatible the ΛCDM limit of all three theories at the 1-σ level, while still compatible with quite a large portion of parameter space. We compare our results to the truncated ΛCDM paradigm, demonstrating that our bounds divert from the expectations of previous works, showing that the permitted regions of coefficients are significantly modified and in general widened with respect to values usually reported in the existing literature. Finally, we test the extended theories through the Bayesian selection criteria AIC and BIC.« less

CMB-galaxy correlation in Unified Dark Matter scalar field cosmologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bertacca, Daniele; Bartolo, Nicola; Matarrese, Sabino

We present an analysis of the cross-correlation between the CMB and the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe in Unified Dark Matter (UDM) scalar field cosmologies. We work out the predicted cross-correlation function in UDM models, which depends on the speed of sound of the unified component, and compare it with observations from six galaxy catalogues (NVSS, HEAO, 2MASS, and SDSS main galaxies, luminous red galaxies, and quasars). We sample the value of the speed of sound and perform a likelihood analysis, finding that the UDM model is as likely as the ΛCDM, and is compatible with observations for amore » range of values of c{sub ∞} (the value of the sound speed at late times) on which structure formation depends. In particular, we obtain an upper bound of c{sub ∞}{sup 2} ≤ 0.009 at 95% confidence level, meaning that the ΛCDM model, for which c{sub ∞}{sup 2} = 0, is a good fit to the data, while the posterior probability distribution peaks at the value c{sub ∞}{sup 2} = 10{sup −4} . Finally, we study the time dependence of the deviation from ΛCDM via a tomographic analysis using a mock redshift distribution and we find that the largest deviation is for low-redshift sources, suggesting that future low-z surveys will be best suited to constrain UDM models.« less

Resolvent-based modeling of passive scalar dynamics in wall-bounded turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Scott; Saxton-Fox, Theresa; McKeon, Beverley

2017-11-01

The resolvent formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations expresses the system state as the output of a linear (resolvent) operator acting upon a nonlinear forcing. Previous studies have demonstrated that a low-rank approximation of this linear operator predicts many known features of incompressible wall-bounded turbulence. In this work, this resolvent model for wall-bounded turbulence is extended to include a passive scalar field. This formulation allows for a number of additional simplifications that reduce model complexity. Firstly, it is shown that the effect of changing scalar diffusivity can be approximated through a transformation of spatial wavenumbers and temporal frequencies. Secondly, passive scalar dynamics may be studied through the low-rank approximation of a passive scalar resolvent operator, which is decoupled from velocity response modes. Thirdly, this passive scalar resolvent operator is amenable to approximation by semi-analytic methods. We investigate the extent to which this resulting hierarchy of models can describe and predict passive scalar dynamics and statistics in wall-bounded turbulence. The support of AFOSR under Grant Numbers FA9550-16-1-0232 and FA9550-16-1-0361 is gratefully acknowledged.

A PRECISION MEASUREMENT OF THE NEUTRINO MIXING ANGLE THETA (SUB 13) USING REACTOR ANTINEUTRINOS AT DAYA BAY.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KETTELL, S.; ET AL.

2006-10-16

This document describes the design of the Daya Bay reactor neutrino experiment. Recent discoveries in neutrino physics have shown that the Standard Model of particle physics is incomplete. The observation of neutrino oscillations has unequivocally demonstrated that the masses of neutrinos are nonzero. The smallness of the neutrino masses (<2 eV) and the two surprisingly large mixing angles measured have thus far provided important clues and constraints to extensions of the Standard Model. The third mixing angle, {delta}{sub 13}, is small and has not yet been determined; the current experimental bound is sin{sup 2} 2{theta}{sub 13} < 0.17 at 90%more » confidence level (from Chooz) for {Delta}m{sub 31}{sup 2} = 2.5 x 10{sup -3} eV{sup 2}. It is important to measure this angle to provide further insight on how to extend the Standard Model. A precision measurement of sin{sup 2} 2{theta}{sub 13} using nuclear reactors has been recommended by the 2004 APS Multi-divisional Study on the Future of Neutrino Physics as well as a recent Neutrino Scientific Assessment Group (NUSAG) report. We propose to perform a precision measurement of this mixing angle by searching for the disappearance of electron antineutrinos from the nuclear reactor complex in Daya Bay, China. A reactor-based determination of sin{sup 2} 2{theta}{sub 13} will be vital in resolving the neutrino-mass hierarchy and future measurements of CP violation in the lepton sector because this technique cleanly separates {theta}{sub 13} from CP violation and effects of neutrino propagation in the earth. A reactor-based determination of sin{sup 2} 2{theta}{sub 13} will provide important, complementary information to that from long-baseline, accelerator-based experiments. The goal of the Daya Bay experiment is to reach a sensitivity of 0.01 or better in sin{sup 2} 2{theta}{sub 13} at 90% confidence level.« less

The CTFA Evaluation of Alternatives Program: an evaluation of in vitro alternatives to the Draize primary eye irritation test. (Phase III) surfactant-based formulations.

PubMed

Gettings, S D; Lordo, R A; Hintze, K L; Bagley, D M; Casterton, P L; Chudkowski, M; Curren, R D; Demetrulias, J L; Dipasquale, L C; Earl, L K; Feder, P I; Galli, C L; Glaza, S M; Gordon, V C; Janus, J; Kurtz, P J; Marenus, K D; Moral, J; Pape, W J; Renskers, K J; Rheins, L A; Roddy, M T; Rozen, M G; Tedeschi, J P; Zyracki, J

1996-01-01

The CTFA Evaluation of Alternatives Program is an evaluation of the relationship between data from the Draize primary eye irritation test and comparable data from a selection of promising in vitro eye irritation tests. In Phase III, data from the Draize test and 41 in vitro endpoints on 25 representative surfactant-based personal care formulations were compared. As in Phase I and Phase II, regression modelling of the relationship between maximum average Draize score (MAS) and in vitro endpoint was the primary approach adopted for evaluating in vitro assay performance. The degree of confidence in prediction of MAS for a given in vitro endpoint is quantified in terms of the relative widths of prediction intervals constructed about the fitted regression curve. Prediction intervals reflect not only the error attributed to the model but also the material-specific components of variation in both the Draize and the in vitro assays. Among the in vitro assays selected for regression modeling in Phase III, the relationship between MAS and in vitro score was relatively well defined. The prediction bounds on MAS were most narrow for materials at the lower or upper end of the effective irritation range (MAS = 0-45), where variability in MAS was smallest. This, the confidence with which the MAS of surfactant-based formulations is predicted is greatest when MAS approaches zero or when MAS approaches 45 (no comment is made on prediction of MAS > 45 since extrapolation beyond the range of observed data is not possible). No single in vitro endpoint was found to exhibit relative superiority with regard to prediction of MAS. Variability associated with Draize test outcome (e.g. in MAS values) must be considered in any future comparisons of in vivo and in vitro test results if the purpose is to predict in vivo response using in vitro data.

Lower Bounds to the Reliabilities of Factor Score Estimators.

PubMed

Hessen, David J

2016-10-06

Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators, Bartlett's factor score estimators, and McDonald's factor score estimators are derived and conditions are given under which these lower bounds are equal. The relative performance of the derived lower bounds is studied using classic example data sets. The results show that estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators are greater than or equal to the estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Bartlett's and McDonald's factor score estimators.

Adjustment of Adaptive Gain with Bounded Linear Stability Analysis to Improve Time-Delay Margin for Metrics-Driven Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam; Nguyen, Nhan T.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Srinvas

2009-01-01

This paper presents the application of Bounded Linear Stability Analysis (BLSA) method for metrics driven adaptive control. The bounded linear stability analysis method is used for analyzing stability of adaptive control models, without linearizing the adaptive laws. Metrics-driven adaptive control introduces a notion that adaptation should be driven by some stability metrics to achieve robustness. By the application of bounded linear stability analysis method the adaptive gain is adjusted during the adaptation in order to meet certain phase margin requirements. Analysis of metrics-driven adaptive control is evaluated for a linear damaged twin-engine generic transport model of aircraft. The analysis shows that the system with the adjusted adaptive gain becomes more robust to unmodeled dynamics or time delay.

Mirror energy difference and the structure of loosely bound proton-rich nuclei around A =20

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Cenxi; Qi, Chong; Xu, Furong; Suzuki, Toshio; Otsuka, Takaharu

2014-04-01

The properties of loosely bound proton-rich nuclei around A =20 are investigated within the framework of the nuclear shell model. In these nuclei, the strength of the effective interactions involving the loosely bound proton s1/2 orbit is significantly reduced in comparison with that of those in their mirror nuclei. We evaluate the reduction of the effective interaction by calculating the monopole-based-universal interaction (VMU) in the Woods-Saxon basis. The shell-model Hamiltonian in the sd shell, such as USD, can thus be modified to reproduce the binding energies and energy levels of the weakly bound proton-rich nuclei around A =20. The effect of the reduction of the effective interaction on the structure and decay properties of these nuclei is also discussed.

Skew information in the XY model with staggered Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Liang; Quan, Dongxiao; Pan, Fei; Liu, Zhi

2017-06-01

We study the performance of the lower bound of skew information in the vicinity of transition point for the anisotropic spin-1/2 XY chain with staggered Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction by use of quantum renormalization-group method. For a fixed value of the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction, there are two saturated values for the lower bound of skew information corresponding to the spin-fluid and Néel phases, respectively. The scaling exponent of the lower bound of skew information closely relates to the correlation length of the model and the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction shifts the factorization point. Our results show that the lower bound of skew information can be a good candidate to detect the critical point of XY spin chain with staggered Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction.

Estimating effects of limiting factors with regression quantiles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Terrell, J.W.; Schroeder, R.L.

1999-01-01

In a recent Concepts paper in Ecology, Thomson et al. emphasized that assumptions of conventional correlation and regression analyses fundamentally conflict with the ecological concept of limiting factors, and they called for new statistical procedures to address this problem. The analytical issue is that unmeasured factors may be the active limiting constraint and may induce a pattern of unequal variation in the biological response variable through an interaction with the measured factors. Consequently, changes near the maxima, rather than at the center of response distributions, are better estimates of the effects expected when the observed factor is the active limiting constraint. Regression quantiles provide estimates for linear models fit to any part of a response distribution, including near the upper bounds, and require minimal assumptions about the form of the error distribution. Regression quantiles extend the concept of one-sample quantiles to the linear model by solving an optimization problem of minimizing an asymmetric function of absolute errors. Rank-score tests for regression quantiles provide tests of hypotheses and confidence intervals for parameters in linear models with heteroscedastic errors, conditions likely to occur in models of limiting ecological relations. We used selected regression quantiles (e.g., 5th, 10th, ..., 95th) and confidence intervals to test hypotheses that parameters equal zero for estimated changes in average annual acorn biomass due to forest canopy cover of oak (Quercus spp.) and oak species diversity. Regression quantiles also were used to estimate changes in glacier lily (Erythronium grandiflorum) seedling numbers as a function of lily flower numbers, rockiness, and pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides fossor) activity, data that motivated the query by Thomson et al. for new statistical procedures. Both example applications showed that effects of limiting factors estimated by changes in some upper regression quantile (e.g., 90-95th) were greater than if effects were estimated by changes in the means from standard linear model procedures. Estimating a range of regression quantiles (e.g., 5-95th) provides a comprehensive description of biological response patterns for exploratory and inferential analyses in observational studies of limiting factors, especially when sampling large spatial and temporal scales.

Robust inference in the negative binomial regression model with an application to falls data.

PubMed

Aeberhard, William H; Cantoni, Eva; Heritier, Stephane

2014-12-01

A popular way to model overdispersed count data, such as the number of falls reported during intervention studies, is by means of the negative binomial (NB) distribution. Classical estimating methods are well-known to be sensitive to model misspecifications, taking the form of patients falling much more than expected in such intervention studies where the NB regression model is used. We extend in this article two approaches for building robust M-estimators of the regression parameters in the class of generalized linear models to the NB distribution. The first approach achieves robustness in the response by applying a bounded function on the Pearson residuals arising in the maximum likelihood estimating equations, while the second approach achieves robustness by bounding the unscaled deviance components. For both approaches, we explore different choices for the bounding functions. Through a unified notation, we show how close these approaches may actually be as long as the bounding functions are chosen and tuned appropriately, and provide the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. Moreover, we introduce a robust weighted maximum likelihood estimator for the overdispersion parameter, specific to the NB distribution. Simulations under various settings show that redescending bounding functions yield estimates with smaller biases under contamination while keeping high efficiency at the assumed model, and this for both approaches. We present an application to a recent randomized controlled trial measuring the effectiveness of an exercise program at reducing the number of falls among people suffering from Parkinsons disease to illustrate the diagnostic use of such robust procedures and their need for reliable inference. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

New method for finding multiple meaningful trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Zhonghao; Flachs, Gerald M.; Jordan, Jay B.

1995-07-01

Mathematical foundations and algorithms for efficiently finding multiple meaningful trajectories (FMMT) in a sequence of digital images are presented. A meaningful trajectory is motion created by a sentient being or by a device under the control of a sentient being. It is smooth and predictable over short time intervals. A meaningful trajectory can suddenly appear or disappear in sequence images. The development of the FMMT is based on these assumptions. A finite state machine in the FMMT is used to model the trajectories under the conditions of occlusions and false targets. Each possible trajectory is associated with an initial state of a finite state machine. When two frames of data are available, a linear predictor is used to predict the locations of all possible trajectories. All trajectories within a certain error bound are moved to a monitoring trajectory state. When trajectories attain three consecutive good predictions, they are moved to a valid trajectory state and considered to be locked into a tracking mode. If an object is occluded while in the valid trajectory state, the predicted position is used to continue to track; however, the confidence in the trajectory is lowered. If the trajectory confidence falls below a lower limit, the trajectory is terminated. Results are presented that illustrate the FMMT applied to track multiple munitions fired from a missile in a sequence of images. Accurate trajectories are determined even in poor images where the probabilities of miss and false alarm are very high.

Coefficient of performance and its bounds with the figure of merit for a general refrigerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Rui; Liu, Wei

2015-02-01

A general refrigerator model with non-isothermal processes is studied. The coefficient of performance (COP) and its bounds at maximum χ figure of merit are obtained and analyzed. This model accounts for different heat capacities during the heat transfer processes. So, different kinds of refrigerator cycles can be considered. Under the constant heat capacity condition, the upper bound of the COP is the Curzon-Ahlborn (CA) coefficient of performance and is independent of the time durations of the heat exchanging processes. With the maximum χ criterion, in the refrigerator cycles, such as the reversed Brayton refrigerator cycle, the reversed Otto refrigerator cycle and the reversed Atkinson refrigerator cycle, where the heat capacity in the heat absorbing process is not less than that in the heat releasing process, their COPs are bounded by the CA coefficient of performance; otherwise, such as for the reversed Diesel refrigerator cycle, its COP can exceed the CA coefficient of performance. Furthermore, the general refined upper and lower bounds have been proposed.

The metamorphosis of 'culture-bound' syndromes.

PubMed

Jilek, W G; Jilek-Aall, L

1985-01-01

Starting from a critical review of the concept of 'culture-bound' disorders and its development in comparative psychiatry, the authors present the changing aspects of two so-called culture-bound syndromes as paradigms of transcultural metamorphosis (koro) and intra-cultural metamorphosis (Salish Indian spirit sickness), respectively. The authors present recent data on epidemics of koro, which is supposedly bound to Chinese culture, in Thailand and India among non-Chinese populations. Neither the model of Oedipal castration anxiety nor the model of culture-specific pathogenicity, commonly adduced in psychiatric and ethnological literature, explain these phenomena. The authors' data on Salish Indian spirit sickness describes the contemporary condition as anomic depression, which is significantly different from its traditional namesake. The traditional concept was redefined by Salish ritual specialists in response to current needs imposed by social changes. The stresses involved in creating the contemporary phenomena of koro and spirit sickness are neither culture-specific nor culture-inherent, as postulated for 'culture-bound' syndromes, rather they are generated by a feeling of powerlessness caused by perceived threats to ethnic survival.

STATIC QUARK ANTI-QUARK FREE AND INTERNAL ENERGY IN 2-FLAVOR QCD AND BOUND STATES IN THE QGP.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

ZANTOW, F.; KACZMAREK, O.

2005-07-25

We present results on heavy quark free energies in 2-flavour QCD. The temperature dependence of the interaction between static quark anti-quark pairs will be analyzed in terms of temperature dependent screening radii, which give a first estimate on the medium modification of (heavy quark) bound states in the quark gluon plasma. Comparing those radii to the (zero temperature) mean squared charge radii of chasmonium states indicates that the J/{Psi} may survive the phase transition as a bound state, while {chi}{sub c} and {Psi}{prime} are expected to show significant thermal modifications at temperatures close to the transition. Furthermore we will analyzemore » the relation between heavy quark free energies, entropy contributions and internal energy and discuss their relation to potential models used to analyze the melting of heavy quark bound states above the deconfinement temperature. Results of different groups and various potential models for bound states in the deconfined phase of QCD are compared.« less

Limits on the fluctuating part of y-type distortion monopole from Planck and SPT results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatri, Rishi; Sunyaev, Rashid

2015-08-01

We use the published Planck and SPT cluster catalogs [1,2] and recently published y-distortion maps [3] to put strong observational limits on the contribution of the fluctuating part of the y-type distortions to the y-distortion monopole. Our bounds are 5.4× 10-8 < langle yrangle < 2.2× 10-6. Our upper bound is a factor of 6.8 stronger than the currently best upper 95% confidence limit from COBE-FIRAS of langle yrangle <15× 10-6. In the standard cosmology, large scale structure is the only source of such distortions and our limits therefore constrain the baryonic physics involved in the formation of the large scale structure. Our lower limit, from the detected clusters in the Planck and SPT catalogs, also implies that a Pixie-like experiment should detect the y-distortion monopole at >27-σ. The biggest sources of uncertainty in our upper limit are the monopole offsets between different HFI channel maps that we estimate to be <10-6.

Global changes of the RNA-bound proteome during the maternal-to-zygotic transition in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Sysoev, Vasiliy O.; Fischer, Bernd; Frese, Christian K.; Gupta, Ishaan; Krijgsveld, Jeroen; Hentze, Matthias W.; Castello, Alfredo; Ephrussi, Anne

2016-01-01

The maternal-to-zygotic transition (MZT) is a process that occurs in animal embryos at the earliest developmental stages, during which maternally deposited mRNAs and other molecules are degraded and replaced by products of the zygotic genome. The zygotic genome is not activated immediately upon fertilization, and in the pre-MZT embryo post-transcriptional control by RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) orchestrates the first steps of development. To identify relevant Drosophila RBPs organism-wide, we refined the RNA interactome capture method for comparative analysis of the pre- and post-MZT embryos. We determine 523 proteins as high-confidence RBPs, half of which were not previously reported to bind RNA. Comparison of the RNA interactomes of pre- and post-MZT embryos reveals high dynamicity of the RNA-bound proteome during early development, and suggests active regulation of RNA binding of some RBPs. This resource provides unprecedented insight into the system of RBPs that govern the earliest steps of Drosophila development. PMID:27378189

Classical Physics and the Bounds of Quantum Correlations.

PubMed

Frustaglia, Diego; Baltanás, José P; Velázquez-Ahumada, María C; Fernández-Prieto, Armando; Lujambio, Aintzane; Losada, Vicente; Freire, Manuel J; Cabello, Adán

2016-06-24

A unifying principle explaining the numerical bounds of quantum correlations remains elusive, despite the efforts devoted to identifying it. Here, we show that these bounds are indeed not exclusive to quantum theory: for any abstract correlation scenario with compatible measurements, models based on classical waves produce probability distributions indistinguishable from those of quantum theory and, therefore, share the same bounds. We demonstrate this finding by implementing classical microwaves that propagate along meter-size transmission-line circuits and reproduce the probabilities of three emblematic quantum experiments. Our results show that the "quantum" bounds would also occur in a classical universe without quanta. The implications of this observation are discussed.

The Problem of Limited Inter-rater Agreement in Modelling Music Similarity

PubMed Central

Flexer, Arthur; Grill, Thomas

2016-01-01

One of the central goals of Music Information Retrieval (MIR) is the quantification of similarity between or within pieces of music. These quantitative relations should mirror the human perception of music similarity, which is however highly subjective with low inter-rater agreement. Unfortunately this principal problem has been given little attention in MIR so far. Since it is not meaningful to have computational models that go beyond the level of human agreement, these levels of inter-rater agreement present a natural upper bound for any algorithmic approach. We will illustrate this fundamental problem in the evaluation of MIR systems using results from two typical application scenarios: (i) modelling of music similarity between pieces of music; (ii) music structure analysis within pieces of music. For both applications, we derive upper bounds of performance which are due to the limited inter-rater agreement. We compare these upper bounds to the performance of state-of-the-art MIR systems and show how the upper bounds prevent further progress in developing better MIR systems. PMID:28190932

Fragment-based modelling of single stranded RNA bound to RNA recognition motif containing proteins

PubMed Central

de Beauchene, Isaure Chauvot; de Vries, Sjoerd J.; Zacharias, Martin

2016-01-01

Abstract Protein-RNA complexes are important for many biological processes. However, structural modeling of such complexes is hampered by the high flexibility of RNA. Particularly challenging is the docking of single-stranded RNA (ssRNA). We have developed a fragment-based approach to model the structure of ssRNA bound to a protein, based on only the protein structure, the RNA sequence and conserved contacts. The conformational diversity of each RNA fragment is sampled by an exhaustive library of trinucleotides extracted from all known experimental protein–RNA complexes. The method was applied to ssRNA with up to 12 nucleotides which bind to dimers of the RNA recognition motifs (RRMs), a highly abundant eukaryotic RNA-binding domain. The fragment based docking allows a precise de novo atomic modeling of protein-bound ssRNA chains. On a benchmark of seven experimental ssRNA–RRM complexes, near-native models (with a mean heavy-atom deviation of <3 Å from experiment) were generated for six out of seven bound RNA chains, and even more precise models (deviation < 2 Å) were obtained for five out of seven cases, a significant improvement compared to the state of the art. The method is not restricted to RRMs but was also successfully applied to Pumilio RNA binding proteins. PMID:27131381

Numerical and analytical bounds on threshold error rates for hypergraph-product codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, Alexey A.; Prabhakar, Sanjay; Dumer, Ilya; Pryadko, Leonid P.

2018-06-01

We study analytically and numerically decoding properties of finite-rate hypergraph-product quantum low density parity-check codes obtained from random (3,4)-regular Gallager codes, with a simple model of independent X and Z errors. Several nontrivial lower and upper bounds for the decodable region are constructed analytically by analyzing the properties of the homological difference, equal minus the logarithm of the maximum-likelihood decoding probability for a given syndrome. Numerical results include an upper bound for the decodable region from specific heat calculations in associated Ising models and a minimum-weight decoding threshold of approximately 7 % .

Rotational relaxation of molecular hydrogen at moderate temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, S. P.

1994-01-01

Using a coupled rotation-vibration-dissociation model the rotational relaxation times for molecular hydrogen as a function of final temperature (500-5000 K), in a hypothetical scenario of sudden compression, are computed. The theoretical model is based on a master equation solver. The bound-bound and bound-free transition rates have been computed using a quasiclassical trajectory method. A review of the available experimental data on the rotational relaxation of hydrogen is presented, with a critical overview of the method of measurements and data reduction, including the sources of errors. These experimental data are then compared with the computed results.

Thomson scattering in the average-atom approximation.

PubMed

Johnson, W R; Nilsen, J; Cheng, K T

2012-09-01

The average-atom model is applied to study Thomson scattering of x-rays from warm dense matter with emphasis on scattering by bound electrons. Parameters needed to evaluate the dynamic structure function (chemical potential, average ionic charge, free electron density, bound and continuum wave functions, and occupation numbers) are obtained from the average-atom model. The resulting analysis provides a relatively simple diagnostic for use in connection with x-ray scattering measurements. Applications are given to dense hydrogen, beryllium, aluminum, and titanium plasmas. In the case of titanium, bound states are predicted to modify the spectrum significantly.

Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koriat, Asher

2011-01-01

Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

The Relationship between Confidence and Self-Concept--Towards a Model of Response Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Stephan; Biermann, Antje

2007-01-01

According to Stankov [Stankov, L. (2000). Complexity, metacognition and fluid intelligence. Intelligence, 28, 121-143.] response confidence in cognitive tests reflects a trait on the boundary of personality and abilities. However, several studies failed in relating confidence scores to other known traits, including self-concept. A model of…

Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear population ecology models.

PubMed

Enszer, Joshua A; Andrei Măceș, D; Stadtherr, Mark A

2015-09-01

Mathematical models in population ecology often involve parameters that are empirically determined and inherently uncertain, with probability distributions for the uncertainties not known precisely. Propagating such imprecise uncertainties rigorously through a model to determine their effect on model outputs can be a challenging problem. We illustrate here a method for the direct propagation of uncertainties represented by probability bounds though nonlinear, continuous-time, dynamic models in population ecology. This makes it possible to determine rigorous bounds on the probability that some specified outcome for a population is achieved, which can be a core problem in ecosystem modeling for risk assessment and management. Results can be obtained at a computational cost that is considerably less than that required by statistical sampling methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The method is demonstrated using three example systems, with focus on a model of an experimental aquatic food web subject to the effects of contamination by ionic liquids, a new class of potentially important industrial chemicals. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Unified Computational Methods for Regression Analysis of Zero-Inflated and Bound-Inflated Data

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Simpson, Douglas

2010-01-01

Bounded data with excess observations at the boundary are common in many areas of application. Various individual cases of inflated mixture models have been studied in the literature for bound-inflated data, yet the computational methods have been developed separately for each type of model. In this article we use a common framework for computing these models, and expand the range of models for both discrete and semi-continuous data with point inflation at the lower boundary. The quasi-Newton and EM algorithms are adapted and compared for estimation of model parameters. The numerical Hessian and generalized Louis method are investigated as means for computing standard errors after optimization. Correlated data are included in this framework via generalized estimating equations. The estimation of parameters and effectiveness of standard errors are demonstrated through simulation and in the analysis of data from an ultrasound bioeffect study. The unified approach enables reliable computation for a wide class of inflated mixture models and comparison of competing models. PMID:20228950

Development of 3-D lithostratigraphic and confidence models at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buesch, D.C.; Nelson, J.E.; Dickerson, R.P.; Spengler, R.W.

1993-01-01

Computerized three-dimensional geologic models of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories such as Yucca Moutain, Nevada, are important for visualizing the complex interplay of (1) thickness and facies variations in lithostratigraphic units and (2) the disruption of these units by faults. The concept of a 'model of confidence' in the lithostratigraphic model is introduced to show where data are located versus regions where interpolations are included. Models of confidence can be based on (1) expert judgment, (2) geostatistical analysis, or (3) a simplified combination of these two methods. Linking of lithostratigraphic models and models of confidence provide guidelines for future characterization and modeling activities, as well as for design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility.

Gender-Specific Models of Work-Bound Korean Adolescents' Social Supports and Career Adaptability on Subsequent Job Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Han, Hyojung; Rojewski, Jay W.

2015-01-01

A Korean national database, the High School Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey, was used to examine the influence of perceived social supports (family and school) and career adaptability on the subsequent job satisfaction of work-bound adolescents 4 months after their transition from high school to work. Structural equation modeling analysis…

Integrability and chemical potential in the (3 + 1)-dimensional Skyrme model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, P. D.; Canfora, F.; Dimakis, N.; Paliathanasis, A.

2017-10-01

Using a remarkable mapping from the original (3 + 1)dimensional Skyrme model to the Sine-Gordon model, we construct the first analytic examples of Skyrmions as well as of Skyrmions-anti-Skyrmions bound states within a finite box in 3 + 1 dimensional flat space-time. An analytic upper bound on the number of these Skyrmions-anti-Skyrmions bound states is derived. We compute the critical isospin chemical potential beyond which these Skyrmions cease to exist. With these tools, we also construct topologically protected time-crystals: time-periodic configurations whose time-dependence is protected by their non-trivial winding number. These are striking realizations of the ideas of Shapere and Wilczek. The critical isospin chemical potential for these time-crystals is determined.

Floquet resonant states and validity of the Floquet-Magnus expansion in the periodically driven Friedrichs models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Takashi

2015-02-01

The Floquet eigenvalue problem is analyzed for periodically driven Friedrichs models on discrete and continuous space. In the high-frequency regime, there exists a Floquet bound state consistent with the Floquet-Magnus expansion in the discrete Friedrichs model, while it is not the case in the continuous model. In the latter case, however, the bound state predicted by the Floquet-Magnus expansion appears as a metastable state whose lifetime diverges in the limit of large frequencies. We obtain the lifetime by evaluating the imaginary part of the quasienergy of the Floquet resonant state. In the low-frequency regime, there is no Floquet bound state and instead the Floquet resonant state with exponentially small imaginary part of the quasienergy appears, which is understood as the quantum tunneling in the energy space.

Stability of the lepton bag model based on the Kerr–Newman solution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burinskii, A., E-mail: bur@ibrae.ac.ru

2015-11-15

We show that the lepton bag model considered in our previous paper [10], generating the external gravitational and electromagnetic fields of the Kerr–Newman (KN) solution, is supersymmetric and represents a BPS-saturated soliton interpolating between the internal vacuum state and the external KN solution. We obtain Bogomolnyi equations for this phase transition and show that the Bogomolnyi bound determines all important features of this bag model, including its stable shape. In particular, for the stationary KN solution, the BPS bound provides stability of the ellipsoidal form of the bag and the formation of the ring–string structure at its border, while formore » the periodic electromagnetic excitations of the KN solution, the BPS bound controls the deformation of the surface of the bag, reproducing the known flexibility of bag models.« less

Thermodynamic models for bounding pressurant mass requirements of cryogenic tanks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vandresar, Neil T.; Haberbusch, Mark S.

1994-01-01

Thermodynamic models have been formulated to predict lower and upper bounds for the mass of pressurant gas required to pressurize a cryogenic tank and then expel liquid from the tank. Limiting conditions are based on either thermal equilibrium or zero energy exchange between the pressurant gas and initial tank contents. The models are independent of gravity level and allow specification of autogenous or non-condensible pressurants. Partial liquid fill levels may be specified for initial and final conditions. Model predictions are shown to successfully bound results from limited normal-gravity tests with condensable and non-condensable pressurant gases. Representative maximum collapse factor maps are presented for liquid hydrogen to show the effects of initial and final fill level on the range of pressurant gas requirements. Maximum collapse factors occur for partial expulsions with large final liquid fill fractions.

Nanoparticle albumin-bound paclitaxel as neoadjuvant chemotherapy of breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zong, Yu; Wu, Jiayi; Shen, Kunwei

2017-03-07

The value of nanoparticle albumin-bound paclitaxel (nab-paclitaxel) in neoadjuvant systemic therapy for breast cancer remains uncertain. Both electronic databases and proceedings of oncologic meetings were included in systematic literature search. Pooled rates of pathological complete response (pCR), odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using fixed-effect or random-effect model to determine the effect of neoadjuvant nab-paclitaxel. Twenty-one studies with 2357 patients were included, 3 of which were randomized clinical trials. The aggregate pCR(ypT0/is ypN0) rate was 32% (95% CI 25-38%) in unselected breast cancer patients and variated in different subtypes. Within randomized clinical trials, the probability of achieving pCR was significantly higher in the nab-paclitaxel group than in the conventional taxanes group (OR = 1.383, 95%CI 1.141-1.676, p = 0.001). For non-hematological toxic effect, any grade and grade 3-4 peripheral sensory neuropathy occurred more frequently with nab-paclitaxel compared to paclitaxel (any grade, OR = 2.090, 95%CI 1.016-4.302, p = 0.045; grade3-4, OR = 3.766, 95%CI 2.324-6.100, p < 0.001). Hypersensitivity was more common with paclitaxel than nab-paclitaxel at any grade and grade 3-4. nab-paclitaxel is an effective cytotoxic drug in neoadjuvant treatment of breast cancer, especially for aggressive tumors in terms of pCR. Exchange of nab-paclitaxel for conventional taxanes could significantly improve pCR rate with reasonable toxicities.

A FAST FLARE AND DIRECT REDSHIFT CONSTRAINT IN FAR-ULTRAVIOLET SPECTRA OF THE BLAZAR S5 0716+714

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danforth, Charles W.; Nalewajko, Krzysztof; France, Kevin

The BL Lacertae object S5 0716+714 is one of the most studied blazars on the sky due to its active variability and brightness in many bands, including very-high-energy gamma rays. We present here two serendipitous results from recent far-ultraviolet spectroscopic observations by the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). First, during the course of our 7.3 hr HST observations, the blazar increased in flux rapidly by {approx}40% (-0.45 mag hr{sup -1}) followed by a slower decline (+0.36 mag hr{sup -1}) to previous FUV flux levels. We model this flare using asymmetric flare templates and constrain the physicalmore » size and energetics of the emitting region. Furthermore, the spectral index of the object softens considerably during the course of the flare from {alpha}{sub {nu}} Almost-Equal-To -1.0 to {alpha}{sub {nu}} Almost-Equal-To -1.4. Second, we constrain the source redshift directly using the {approx}30 intervening absorption systems. A system at z = 0.2315 is detected in Ly{alpha}, Ly{beta}, O VI, and N V and defines the lower bound on the source redshift. No absorbers are seen in the remaining spectral coverage (0.2315 < z {sub Ly{alpha}} {approx}< 0.47) and we set a statistical upper bound of z < 0.322 (95% confidence) on the blazar. This is the first direct redshift limit for this object and is consistent with literature estimates of z = 0.31 {+-} 0.08 based on the detection of a host galaxy.« less

In Situ Study to Confirm the Anticaries Potential of a Sodium Monofluorophosphate Dentifrice Containing Calcium Sodium Phosphosilicate.

PubMed

Parkinson, C R; Siddiqi, M; Mason, S; Lippert, F; Hara, A T; Zero, D T

2017-06-01

A randomized, investigator-blind, five-treatment, crossover, non-inferiority study was conducted to investigate the effect of the addition of calcium sodium phosphosilicate (CSPS), an agent known to relieve dentin hypersensitivity, to a sodium monofluorophosphate (SMFP)-containing dentifrice on the enamel remineralization potential of fluoride (F), as assessed by percentage surface microhardness recovery (%SMHR) and enamel fluoride uptake (EFU) using a standard in situ caries model. Seventy-seven subjects wearing bilateral mandibular partial dentures holding partially demineralized bovine enamel specimens 24 hours/day brushed their teeth with their assigned randomized dentifrice containing either 1500 or 0 ppm F with 5% CSPS or 1500, 500, or 0 ppm F with 0% CSPS twice daily for 21 days. The success criterion was to observe a difference in % SMHR between dentifrices containing 1500 ppm F of six units or less in the upper bound of the two-sided 95% confidence interval (CI). Following 21 days of treatment, the upper bound CI of the %SMHR difference between the dentifrices containing 1500 ppm F was 1.66, thus within the non-inferiority limit. No statistically significant differences for %SMHR (p = 0.2601) and EFU (p = 0.2984) were noted between these two dentifrices. The present in situ caries study provides evidence demonstrating that the addition of the calcium-containing compound CSPS to a 1500 ppm F dentifrice does not interfere with the ability of fluoride to remineralize surface-softened enamel; i.e., CSPS neither impairs nor improves the potential cariostatic value of SMFP dentifrice.

Improved bounds on the energy-minimizing strains in martensitic polycrystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peigney, Michaël

2016-07-01

This paper is concerned with the theoretical prediction of the energy-minimizing (or recoverable) strains in martensitic polycrystals, considering a nonlinear elasticity model of phase transformation at finite strains. The main results are some rigorous upper bounds on the set of energy-minimizing strains. Those bounds depend on the polycrystalline texture through the volume fractions of the different orientations. The simplest form of the bounds presented is obtained by combining recent results for single crystals with a homogenization approach proposed previously for martensitic polycrystals. However, the polycrystalline bound delivered by that procedure may fail to recover the monocrystalline bound in the homogeneous limit, as is demonstrated in this paper by considering an example related to tetragonal martensite. This motivates the development of a more detailed analysis, leading to improved polycrystalline bounds that are notably consistent with results for single crystals in the homogeneous limit. A two-orientation polycrystal of tetragonal martensite is studied as an illustration. In that case, analytical expressions of the upper bounds are derived and the results are compared with lower bounds obtained by considering laminate textures.

Three-month validation of a turbuhaler electronic monitoring device: implications for asthma clinical trial use.

PubMed

Pilcher, Janine; Shirtcliffe, Philippa; Patel, Mitesh; McKinstry, Steve; Cripps, Terrianne; Weatherall, Mark; Beasley, Richard

2015-01-01

Electronic monitoring of inhaled asthma therapy is suggested as the 'gold standard' for measuring patterns of medication use in clinical trials. The SmartTurbo (Adherium (NZ) Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand) is an electronic monitor for use with a turbuhaler device (AstraZeneca, UK). The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of the SmartTurbo in recording Symbicort actuations over a 12-week period of use. Twenty SmartTurbo monitors were attached to the base of 20 Symbicort turbuhalers. Bench testing in a research facility was undertaken on days 0, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 14, 21, 28, 56 and 84. Patterns of 'low-use' (2 sets of 2 actuations on the same day) and 'high-use' (2 sets of 8 actuations on the same day) were performed. The date and time of actuations were recorded in a paper diary and compared with data uploaded from the SmartTurbo monitors. 2800 actuations were performed. Monitor sensitivity was 99.9% with a lower 97.5% confidence bound of 99.6%. The positive predictive value was 99.9% with a 97.5% lower confidence bound of 99.7%. Accuracy was not affected by whether the pattern of inhaler use was low or high, or whether there was a delay in uploading the actuation data. The SmartTurbo monitor is highly accurate in recording and retaining electronic data in this 12-week bench study. It can be recommended for use in clinical trial settings, in which quality control systems are incorporated into study protocols to ensure accurate data acquisition.

Elimination of Onchocerciasis from Mexico.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Pérez, Mario A; Fernández-Santos, Nadia A; Orozco-Algarra, María E; Rodríguez-Atanacio, José A; Domínguez-Vázquez, Alfredo; Rodríguez-Morales, Kristel B; Real-Najarro, Olga; Prado-Velasco, Francisco G; Cupp, Eddie W; Richards, Frank O; Hassan, Hassan K; González-Roldán, Jesús F; Kuri-Morales, Pablo A; Unnasch, Thomas R

2015-01-01

Mexico is one of the six countries formerly endemic for onchocerciasis in Latin America. Transmission has been interrupted in the three endemic foci of that country and mass drug distribution has ceased. Three years after mass drug distribution ended, post-treatment surveillance (PTS) surveys were undertaken which employed entomological indicators to check for transmission recrudescence. In-depth entomologic assessments were performed in 18 communities in the three endemic foci of Mexico. None of the 108,212 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected from the three foci were found to contain parasite DNA when tested by polymerase chain reaction-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (PCR-ELISA), resulting in a maximum upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (95%-ULCI) of the infective rate in the vectors of 0.035/2,000 flies examined. This is an order of magnitude below the threshold of a 95%-ULCI of less than one infective fly per 2,000 flies tested, the current entomological criterion for interruption of transmission developed by the international community. The point estimate of seasonal transmission potential (STP) was zero, and the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the STP ranged from 1.2 to 1.7 L3/person/season in the different foci. This value is below all previous estimates for the minimum transmission potential required to maintain the parasite population. The results from the in-depth entomological post treatment surveillance surveys strongly suggest that transmission has not resumed in the three foci of Mexico during the three years since the last distribution of ivermectin occurred; it was concluded that transmission remains undetectable without intervention, and Onchocerca volvulus has been eliminated from Mexico.

Computing an upper bound on contact stress with surrogate duality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuan, Zhaocheng; Papadopoulos, Panayiotis

2016-07-01

We present a method for computing an upper bound on the contact stress of elastic bodies. The continuum model of elastic bodies with contact is first modeled as a constrained optimization problem by using finite elements. An explicit formulation of the total contact force, a fraction function with the numerator as a linear function and the denominator as a quadratic convex function, is derived with only the normalized nodal contact forces as the constrained variables in a standard simplex. Then two bounds are obtained for the sum of the nodal contact forces. The first is an explicit formulation of matrices of the finite element model, derived by maximizing the fraction function under the constraint that the sum of the normalized nodal contact forces is one. The second bound is solved by first maximizing the fraction function subject to the standard simplex and then using Dinkelbach's algorithm for fractional programming to find the maximum—since the fraction function is pseudo concave in a neighborhood of the solution. These two bounds are solved with the problem dimensions being only the number of contact nodes or node pairs, which are much smaller than the dimension for the original problem, namely, the number of degrees of freedom. Next, a scheme for constructing an upper bound on the contact stress is proposed that uses the bounds on the sum of the nodal contact forces obtained on a fine finite element mesh and the nodal contact forces obtained on a coarse finite element mesh, which are problems that can be solved at a lower computational cost. Finally, the proposed method is verified through some examples concerning both frictionless and frictional contact to demonstrate the method's feasibility, efficiency, and robustness.

Backstepping Design of Adaptive Neural Fault-Tolerant Control for MIMO Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Gao, Hui; Song, Yongduan; Wen, Changyun

In this paper, an adaptive controller is developed for a class of multi-input and multioutput nonlinear systems with neural networks (NNs) used as a modeling tool. It is shown that all the signals in the closed-loop system with the proposed adaptive neural controller are globally uniformly bounded for any external input in . In our control design, the upper bound of the NN modeling error and the gains of external disturbance are characterized by unknown upper bounds, which is more rational to establish the stability in the adaptive NN control. Filter-based modification terms are used in the update laws of unknown parameters to improve the transient performance. Finally, fault-tolerant control is developed to accommodate actuator failure. An illustrative example applying the adaptive controller to control a rigid robot arm shows the validation of the proposed controller.In this paper, an adaptive controller is developed for a class of multi-input and multioutput nonlinear systems with neural networks (NNs) used as a modeling tool. It is shown that all the signals in the closed-loop system with the proposed adaptive neural controller are globally uniformly bounded for any external input in . In our control design, the upper bound of the NN modeling error and the gains of external disturbance are characterized by unknown upper bounds, which is more rational to establish the stability in the adaptive NN control. Filter-based modification terms are used in the update laws of unknown parameters to improve the transient performance. Finally, fault-tolerant control is developed to accommodate actuator failure. An illustrative example applying the adaptive controller to control a rigid robot arm shows the validation of the proposed controller.

Error analysis of analytic solutions for self-excited near-symmetric rigid bodies - A numerical study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kia, T.; Longuski, J. M.

1984-01-01

Analytic error bounds are presented for the solutions of approximate models for self-excited near-symmetric rigid bodies. The error bounds are developed for analytic solutions to Euler's equations of motion. The results are applied to obtain a simplified analytic solution for Eulerian rates and angles. The results of a sample application of the range and error bound expressions for the case of the Galileo spacecraft experiencing transverse torques demonstrate the use of the bounds in analyses of rigid body spin change maneuvers.

Comonotonic bounds on the survival probabilities in the Lee-Carter model for mortality projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denuit, Michel; Dhaene, Jan

2007-06-01

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables.

Graph Embedding Techniques for Bounding Condition Numbers of Incomplete Factor Preconditioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guattery, Stephen

1997-01-01

We extend graph embedding techniques for bounding the spectral condition number of preconditioned systems involving symmetric, irreducibly diagonally dominant M-matrices to systems where the preconditioner is not diagonally dominant. In particular, this allows us to bound the spectral condition number when the preconditioner is based on an incomplete factorization. We provide a review of previous techniques, describe our extension, and give examples both of a bound for a model problem, and of ways in which our techniques give intuitive way of looking at incomplete factor preconditioners.

Stability of proton-bound clusters of alkyl alcohols, aldehydes and ketones in Ion Mobility Spectrometry.

PubMed

Jurado-Campos, Natividad; Garrido-Delgado, Rocío; Martínez-Haya, Bruno; Eiceman, Gary A; Arce, Lourdes

2018-08-01

Significant substances in emerging applications of ion mobility spectrometry such as breath analysis for clinical diagnostics and headspace analysis for food purity include low molar mass alcohols, ketones, aldehydes and esters which produce mobility spectra containing protonated monomers and proton-bound dimers. Spectra for all n- alcohols, aldehydes and ketones from carbon number three to eight exhibited protonated monomers and proton-bound dimers with ion drift times of 6.5-13.3 ms at ambient pressure and from 35° to 80 °C in nitrogen. Only n-alcohols from 1-pentanol to 1-octanol produced proton-bound trimers which were sufficiently stable to be observed at these temperatures and drift times of 12.8-16.3 ms. Polar functional groups were protected in compact structures in ab initio models for proton-bound dimers of alcohols, ketones and aldehydes. Only alcohols formed a V-shaped arrangement for proton-bound trimers strengthening ion stability and lifetime. In contrast, models for proton-bound trimers of aldehydes and ketones showed association of the third neutral through weak, non-specific, long-range interactions consistent with ion dissociation in the ion mobility drift tube before arriving at the detector. Collision cross sections derived from reduced mobility coefficients in nitrogen gas atmosphere support the predicted ion structures and approximate degrees of hydration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Particle filter based hybrid prognostics for health monitoring of uncertain systems in bond graph framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Mayank Shekhar; Dauphin-Tanguy, G.; Ould-Bouamama, B.

2016-06-01

The paper's main objective is to address the problem of health monitoring of system parameters in Bond Graph (BG) modeling framework, by exploiting its structural and causal properties. The system in feedback control loop is considered uncertain globally. Parametric uncertainty is modeled in interval form. The system parameter is undergoing degradation (prognostic candidate) and its degradation model is assumed to be known a priori. The detection of degradation commencement is done in a passive manner which involves interval valued robust adaptive thresholds over the nominal part of the uncertain BG-derived interval valued analytical redundancy relations (I-ARRs). The latter forms an efficient diagnostic module. The prognostics problem is cast as joint state-parameter estimation problem, a hybrid prognostic approach, wherein the fault model is constructed by considering the statistical degradation model of the system parameter (prognostic candidate). The observation equation is constructed from nominal part of the I-ARR. Using particle filter (PF) algorithms; the estimation of state of health (state of prognostic candidate) and associated hidden time-varying degradation progression parameters is achieved in probabilistic terms. A simplified variance adaptation scheme is proposed. Associated uncertainties which arise out of noisy measurements, parametric degradation process, environmental conditions etc. are effectively managed by PF. This allows the production of effective predictions of the remaining useful life of the prognostic candidate with suitable confidence bounds. The effectiveness of the novel methodology is demonstrated through simulations and experiments on a mechatronic system.

Uncertainty in a monthly water balance model using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, Diego; Rivas, Yessica; Godoy, Alex

2015-02-01

Hydrological models are simplified representations of natural processes and subject to errors. Uncertainty bounds are a commonly used way to assess the impact of an input or model architecture uncertainty in model outputs. Different sets of parameters could have equally robust goodness-of-fit indicators, which is known as Equifinality. We assessed the outputs from a lumped conceptual hydrological model to an agricultural watershed in central Chile under strong interannual variability (coefficient of variability of 25%) by using the Equifinality concept and uncertainty bounds. The simulation period ran from January 1999 to December 2006. Equifinality and uncertainty bounds from GLUE methodology (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) were used to identify parameter sets as potential representations of the system. The aim of this paper is to exploit the use of uncertainty bounds to differentiate behavioural parameter sets in a simple hydrological model. Then, we analyze the presence of equifinality in order to improve the identification of relevant hydrological processes. The water balance model for Chillan River exhibits, at a first stage, equifinality. However, it was possible to narrow the range for the parameters and eventually identify a set of parameters representing the behaviour of the watershed (a behavioural model) in agreement with observational and soft data (calculation of areal precipitation over the watershed using an isohyetal map). The mean width of the uncertainty bound around the predicted runoff for the simulation period decreased from 50 to 20 m3s-1 after fixing the parameter controlling the areal precipitation over the watershed. This decrement is equivalent to decreasing the ratio between simulated and observed discharge from 5.2 to 2.5. Despite the criticisms against the GLUE methodology, such as the lack of statistical formality, it is identified as a useful tool assisting the modeller with the identification of critical parameters.

BICEP2 / Keck Array IX: New bounds on anisotropies of CMB polarization rotation and implications for axionlike particles and primordial magnetic fields

DOE PAGES

Ade, P. A. R.; Ahmed, Z.; Aikin, R. W.; ...

2017-11-09

We present the strongest constraints to date on anisotropies of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization rotation derived from 150 GHz data taken by the BICEP2 & Keck Array CMB experiments up to and including the 2014 observing season (BK14). The definition of the polarization angle in BK14 maps has gone through self-calibration in which the overall angle is adjusted to minimize the observed TB and EB power spectra. After this procedure, the QU maps lose sensitivity to a uniform polarization rotation but are still sensitive to anisotropies of polarization rotation. This analysis places constraints on the anisotropies of polarization rotation,more » which could be generated by CMB photons interacting with axionlike pseudoscalar fields or Faraday rotation induced by primordial magnetic fields. The sensitivity of BK14 maps ( ~3 μK - arc min ) makes it possible to reconstruct anisotropies of the polarization rotation angle and measure their angular power spectrum much more precisely than previous attempts. Our data are found to be consistent with no polarization rotation anisotropies, improving the upper bound on the amplitude of the rotation angle spectrum by roughly an order of magnitude compared to the previous best constraints. Our results lead to an order of magnitude better constraint on the coupling constant of the Chern-Simons electromagnetic term g aγ ≤ 7.2 × 10 -2/H I (95% confidence) than the constraint derived from the B -mode spectrum, where H I is the inflationary Hubble scale. This constraint leads to a limit on the decay constant of 10 -6 ≲ f a / M pl at mass range of 10 -33 ≤ m a ≤ 10 -28eV for r = 0.01 , assuming g aγ ~ α/( 2πf a) with α denoting the fine structure constant. The upper bound on the amplitude of the primordial magnetic fields is 30 nG (95% confidence) from the polarization rotation anisotropies.« less

BICEP2 / Keck Array IX: New bounds on anisotropies of CMB polarization rotation and implications for axionlike particles and primordial magnetic fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ade, P. A. R.; Ahmed, Z.; Aikin, R. W.

We present the strongest constraints to date on anisotropies of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization rotation derived from 150 GHz data taken by the BICEP2 & Keck Array CMB experiments up to and including the 2014 observing season (BK14). The definition of the polarization angle in BK14 maps has gone through self-calibration in which the overall angle is adjusted to minimize the observed TB and EB power spectra. After this procedure, the QU maps lose sensitivity to a uniform polarization rotation but are still sensitive to anisotropies of polarization rotation. This analysis places constraints on the anisotropies of polarization rotation,more » which could be generated by CMB photons interacting with axionlike pseudoscalar fields or Faraday rotation induced by primordial magnetic fields. The sensitivity of BK14 maps ( ~3 μK - arc min ) makes it possible to reconstruct anisotropies of the polarization rotation angle and measure their angular power spectrum much more precisely than previous attempts. Our data are found to be consistent with no polarization rotation anisotropies, improving the upper bound on the amplitude of the rotation angle spectrum by roughly an order of magnitude compared to the previous best constraints. Our results lead to an order of magnitude better constraint on the coupling constant of the Chern-Simons electromagnetic term g aγ ≤ 7.2 × 10 -2/H I (95% confidence) than the constraint derived from the B -mode spectrum, where H I is the inflationary Hubble scale. This constraint leads to a limit on the decay constant of 10 -6 ≲ f a / M pl at mass range of 10 -33 ≤ m a ≤ 10 -28eV for r = 0.01 , assuming g aγ ~ α/( 2πf a) with α denoting the fine structure constant. The upper bound on the amplitude of the primordial magnetic fields is 30 nG (95% confidence) from the polarization rotation anisotropies.« less

Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

2009-01-01

A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

Key management and encryption under the bounded storage model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Draelos, Timothy John; Neumann, William Douglas; Lanzone, Andrew J.

2005-11-01

There are several engineering obstacles that need to be solved before key management and encryption under the bounded storage model can be realized. One of the critical obstacles hindering its adoption is the construction of a scheme that achieves reliable communication in the event that timing synchronization errors occur. One of the main accomplishments of this project was the development of a new scheme that solves this problem. We show in general that there exist message encoding techniques under the bounded storage model that provide an arbitrarily small probability of transmission error. We compute the maximum capacity of this channelmore » using the unsynchronized key-expansion as side-channel information at the decoder and provide tight lower bounds for a particular class of key-expansion functions that are pseudo-invariant to timing errors. Using our results in combination with Dziembowski et al. [11] encryption scheme we can construct a scheme that solves the timing synchronization error problem. In addition to this work we conducted a detailed case study of current and future storage technologies. We analyzed the cost, capacity, and storage data rate of various technologies, so that precise security parameters can be developed for bounded storage encryption schemes. This will provide an invaluable tool for developing these schemes in practice.« less

Perturbative unitarity constraints on gauge portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hedri, Sonia; Shepherd, William; Walker, Devin G. E.

2017-12-01

Dark matter that was once in thermal equilibrium with the Standard Model is generally prohibited from obtaining all of its mass from the electroweak phase transition. This implies a new scale of physics and mediator particles to facilitate dark matter annihilation. In this work, we focus on dark matter that annihilates through a generic gauge boson portal. We show how partial wave unitarity places upper bounds on the dark gauge boson, dark Higgs and dark matter masses. Outside of well-defined fine-tuned regions, we find an upper bound of 9 TeV for the dark matter mass when the dark Higgs and dark gauge bosons both facilitate the dark matter annihilations. In this scenario, the upper bound on the dark Higgs and dark gauge boson masses are 10 TeV and 16 TeV, respectively. When only the dark gauge boson facilitates dark matter annihilations, we find an upper bound of 3 TeV and 6 TeV for the dark matter and dark gauge boson, respectively. Overall, using the gauge portal as a template, we describe a method to not only place upper bounds on the dark matter mass but also on the new particles with Standard Model quantum numbers. We briefly discuss the reach of future accelerator, direct and indirect detection experiments for this class of models.

Robust model predictive control of nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and bounded uncertainties based on neural networks.

PubMed

Yan, Zheng; Wang, Jun

2014-03-01

This paper presents a neural network approach to robust model predictive control (MPC) for constrained discrete-time nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics affected by bounded uncertainties. The exact nonlinear model of underlying process is not precisely known, but a partially known nominal model is available. This partially known nonlinear model is first decomposed to an affine term plus an unknown high-order term via Jacobian linearization. The linearization residue combined with unmodeled dynamics is then modeled using an extreme learning machine via supervised learning. The minimax methodology is exploited to deal with bounded uncertainties. The minimax optimization problem is reformulated as a convex minimization problem and is iteratively solved by a two-layer recurrent neural network. The proposed neurodynamic approach to nonlinear MPC improves the computational efficiency and sheds a light for real-time implementability of MPC technology. Simulation results are provided to substantiate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed approach.

Ensembles vs. information theory: supporting science under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Grey S.; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2018-05-01

Multi-model ensembles are one of the most common ways to deal with epistemic uncertainty in hydrology. This is a problem because there is no known way to sample models such that the resulting ensemble admits a measure that has any systematic (i.e., asymptotic, bounded, or consistent) relationship with uncertainty. Multi-model ensembles are effectively sensitivity analyses and cannot - even partially - quantify uncertainty. One consequence of this is that multi-model approaches cannot support a consistent scientific method - in particular, multi-model approaches yield unbounded errors in inference. In contrast, information theory supports a coherent hypothesis test that is robust to (i.e., bounded under) arbitrary epistemic uncertainty. This paper may be understood as advocating a procedure for hypothesis testing that does not require quantifying uncertainty, but is coherent and reliable (i.e., bounded) in the presence of arbitrary (unknown and unknowable) uncertainty. We conclude by offering some suggestions about how this proposed philosophy of science suggests new ways to conceptualize and construct simulation models of complex, dynamical systems.

A shock spectra and impedance method to determine a bound for spacecraft structural loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bamford, R.; Trubert, M.

1974-01-01

A method to determine a bound of structural loads for a spacecraft mounted on a launch vehicle is developed. The method utilizes the interface shock spectra and the relative impedance of the spacecraft and launch vehicle. The method is developed for single-degree-of-freedom models and then generalized to multidegree-of-freedom models.

Statistical Modeling for Radiation Hardness Assurance: Toward Bigger Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladbury, R.; Campola, M. J.

2015-01-01

New approaches to statistical modeling in radiation hardness assurance are discussed. These approaches yield quantitative bounds on flight-part radiation performance even in the absence of conventional data sources. This allows the analyst to bound radiation risk at all stages and for all decisions in the RHA process. It also allows optimization of RHA procedures for the project's risk tolerance.

Education as Literacy for Freedom: Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean from an Upward Bound Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dottin, Erskine S.

The Upward Bound Project for low income youth in Florida emphasizes humanistic education rather than education based on the capitalistic model of production, consumption, and competition. The project, which can serve as a model for education in developing countries, focuses on creating self-concepts and values to counteract those of an acquisitive…

Bounding the electrostatic free energies associated with linear continuum models of molecular solvation.

PubMed

Bardhan, Jaydeep P; Knepley, Matthew G; Anitescu, Mihai

2009-03-14

The importance of electrostatic interactions in molecular biology has driven extensive research toward the development of accurate and efficient theoretical and computational models. Linear continuum electrostatic theory has been surprisingly successful, but the computational costs associated with solving the associated partial differential equations (PDEs) preclude the theory's use in most dynamical simulations. Modern generalized-Born models for electrostatics can reproduce PDE-based calculations to within a few percent and are extremely computationally efficient but do not always faithfully reproduce interactions between chemical groups. Recent work has shown that a boundary-integral-equation formulation of the PDE problem leads naturally to a new approach called boundary-integral-based electrostatics estimation (BIBEE) to approximate electrostatic interactions. In the present paper, we prove that the BIBEE method can be used to rigorously bound the actual continuum-theory electrostatic free energy. The bounds are validated using a set of more than 600 proteins. Detailed numerical results are presented for structures of the peptide met-enkephalin taken from a molecular-dynamics simulation. These bounds, in combination with our demonstration that the BIBEE methods accurately reproduce pairwise interactions, suggest a new approach toward building a highly accurate yet computationally tractable electrostatic model.

Variational Gaussian approximation for Poisson data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arridge, Simon R.; Ito, Kazufumi; Jin, Bangti; Zhang, Chen

2018-02-01

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution arising from the Poisson model with a Gaussian prior. This is achieved by seeking an optimal Gaussian distribution minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the posterior distribution to the approximation, or equivalently maximizing the lower bound for the model evidence. We derive an explicit expression for the lower bound, and show the existence and uniqueness of the optimal Gaussian approximation. The lower bound functional can be viewed as a variant of classical Tikhonov regularization that penalizes also the covariance. Then we develop an efficient alternating direction maximization algorithm for solving the optimization problem, and analyze its convergence. We discuss strategies for reducing the computational complexity via low rank structure of the forward operator and the sparsity of the covariance. Further, as an application of the lower bound, we discuss hierarchical Bayesian modeling for selecting the hyperparameter in the prior distribution, and propose a monotonically convergent algorithm for determining the hyperparameter. We present extensive numerical experiments to illustrate the Gaussian approximation and the algorithms.

Quantum speed limit for arbitrary initial states

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ying-Jie; Han, Wei; Xia, Yun-Jie; Cao, Jun-Peng; Fan, Heng

2014-01-01

The minimal time a system needs to evolve from an initial state to its one orthogonal state is defined as the quantum speed limit time, which can be used to characterize the maximal speed of evolution of a quantum system. This is a fundamental question of quantum physics. We investigate the generic bound on the minimal evolution time of the open dynamical quantum system. This quantum speed limit time is applicable to both mixed and pure initial states. We then apply this result to the damped Jaynes-Cummings model and the Ohimc-like dephasing model starting from a general time-evolution state. The bound of this time-dependent state at any point in time can be found. For the damped Jaynes-Cummings model, when the system starts from the excited state, the corresponding bound first decreases and then increases in the Markovian dynamics. While in the non-Markovian regime, the speed limit time shows an interesting periodic oscillatory behavior. For the case of Ohimc-like dephasing model, this bound would be gradually trapped to a fixed value. In addition, the roles of the relativistic effects on the speed limit time for the observer in non-inertial frames are discussed. PMID:24809395

Bounding the electrostatic free energies associated with linear continuum models of molecular solvation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Knepley, Matthew G.; Anitescu, Mihai

2009-03-01

The importance of electrostatic interactions in molecular biology has driven extensive research toward the development of accurate and efficient theoretical and computational models. Linear continuum electrostatic theory has been surprisingly successful, but the computational costs associated with solving the associated partial differential equations (PDEs) preclude the theory's use in most dynamical simulations. Modern generalized-Born models for electrostatics can reproduce PDE-based calculations to within a few percent and are extremely computationally efficient but do not always faithfully reproduce interactions between chemical groups. Recent work has shown that a boundary-integral-equation formulation of the PDE problem leads naturally to a new approach called boundary-integral-based electrostatics estimation (BIBEE) to approximate electrostatic interactions. In the present paper, we prove that the BIBEE method can be used to rigorously bound the actual continuum-theory electrostatic free energy. The bounds are validated using a set of more than 600 proteins. Detailed numerical results are presented for structures of the peptide met-enkephalin taken from a molecular-dynamics simulation. These bounds, in combination with our demonstration that the BIBEE methods accurately reproduce pairwise interactions, suggest a new approach toward building a highly accurate yet computationally tractable electrostatic model.

Bounding filter - A simple solution to lack of exact a priori statistics.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nahi, N. E.; Weiss, I. M.

1972-01-01

Wiener and Kalman-Bucy estimation problems assume that models describing the signal and noise stochastic processes are exactly known. When this modeling information, i.e., the signal and noise spectral densities for Wiener filter and the signal and noise dynamic system and disturbing noise representations for Kalman-Bucy filtering, is inexactly known, then the filter's performance is suboptimal and may even exhibit apparent divergence. In this paper a system is designed whereby the actual estimation error covariance is bounded by the covariance calculated by the estimator. Therefore, the estimator obtains a bound on the actual error covariance which is not available, and also prevents its apparent divergence.

The Cramér-Rao Bounds and Sensor Selection for Nonlinear Systems with Uncertain Observations.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiguo; Shen, Xiaojing; Wang, Ping; Zhu, Yunmin

2018-04-05

This paper considers the problems of the posterior Cramér-Rao bound and sensor selection for multi-sensor nonlinear systems with uncertain observations. In order to effectively overcome the difficulties caused by uncertainty, we investigate two methods to derive the posterior Cramér-Rao bound. The first method is based on the recursive formula of the Cramér-Rao bound and the Gaussian mixture model. Nevertheless, it needs to compute a complex integral based on the joint probability density function of the sensor measurements and the target state. The computation burden of this method is relatively high, especially in large sensor networks. Inspired by the idea of the expectation maximization algorithm, the second method is to introduce some 0-1 latent variables to deal with the Gaussian mixture model. Since the regular condition of the posterior Cramér-Rao bound is unsatisfied for the discrete uncertain system, we use some continuous variables to approximate the discrete latent variables. Then, a new Cramér-Rao bound can be achieved by a limiting process of the Cramér-Rao bound of the continuous system. It avoids the complex integral, which can reduce the computation burden. Based on the new posterior Cramér-Rao bound, the optimal solution of the sensor selection problem can be derived analytically. Thus, it can be used to deal with the sensor selection of a large-scale sensor networks. Two typical numerical examples verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Low energy theorems and the unitarity bounds in the extra U(1) superstring inspired E{sub 6} models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharma, N.K.; Saxena, Pranav; Nagawat, Ashok K.

2005-11-01

The conventional method using low energy theorems derived by Chanowitz et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 57, 2344 (1986);] does not seem to lead to an explicit unitarity limit in the scattering processes of longitudinally polarized gauge bosons for the high energy case in the extra U(1) superstring inspired models, commonly known as {eta} model, emanating from E{sub 6} group of superstring theory. We have made use of an alternative procedure given by Durand and Lopez [Phys. Lett. B 217, 463 (1989);], which is applicable to supersymmetric grand unified theories. Explicit unitarity bounds on the superpotential couplings (identified as Yukawa couplings)more » are obtained from both using unitarity constraints as well as using renormalization group equations (RGE) analysis at one-loop level utilizing critical couplings concepts implying divergence of scalar coupling at M{sub G}. These are found to be consistent with finiteness over the entire range M{sub Z}{<=}{radical}(s){<=}M{sub G} i.e. from grand unification scale to weak scale. For completeness, the similar approach has been made use of in other models i.e., {chi}, {psi}, and {nu} models emanating from E{sub 6} and it has been noticed that at weak scale, the unitarity bounds on Yukawa couplings do not differ among E{sub 6} extra U(1) models significantly except for the case of {chi} model in 16 representations. For the case of the E{sub 6}-{eta} model ({beta}{sub E} congruent with 9.64), the analysis using the unitarity constraints leads to the following bounds on various parameters: {lambda}{sub t(max.)}(M{sub Z})=1.294, {lambda}{sub b(max.)}(M{sub Z})=1.278, {lambda}{sub H(max.)}(M{sub Z})=0.955, {lambda}{sub D(max.)}(M{sub Z})=1.312. The analytical analysis of RGE at the one-loop level provides the following critical bounds on superpotential couplings: {lambda}{sub t,c}(M{sub Z}) congruent with 1.295, {lambda}{sub b,c}(M{sub Z}) congruent with 1.279, {lambda}{sub H,c}(M{sub Z}) congruent with 0.968, {lambda}{sub D,c}(M{sub Z}) congruent with 1.315. Thus superpotential coupling values obtained by both the approaches are in good agreement. Theoretically we have obtained bounds on physical mass parameters using the unitarity constrained superpotential couplings. The bounds are as follows: (i) Absolute upper bound on top quark mass m{sub t}{<=}225 GeV (ii) the upper bound on the lightest neutral Higgs boson mass at the tree level is m{sub H{sub 2}{sup 0}}{sup tree}{<=}169 GeV, and after the inclusion of the one-loop radiative correction it is m{sub H{sub 2}{sup 0}}{<=}229 GeV when {lambda}{sub t}{ne}{lambda}{sub b} at the grand unified theory scale. On the other hand, these are m{sub H{sub 2}{sup 0}}{sup tree}{<=}159 GeV, m{sub H{sub 2}{sup 0}}{<=}222 GeV, respectively, when {lambda}{sub t}={lambda}{sub b} at the grand unified theory scale. A plausible range on D-quark mass as a function of mass scale M{sub Z{sub 2}} is m{sub D}{approx_equal}O(3 TeV) for M{sub Z{sub 2}}{approx_equal}O(1 TeV) for the favored values of tan{beta}{<=}1. The bounds on aforesaid physical parameters in the case of {chi}, {psi}, and {nu} models in the 27 representation are almost identical with those of {eta} model and are consistent with the present day experimental precision measurements.« less

Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

2014-09-01

Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrainedmore » within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.« less

Data Needs for Stellar Atmosphere and Spectrum Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, C. I.

2006-01-01

The main data need for stellar atmosphere and spectrum modeling remains atomic and molecular transition data, particularly energy levels and transition cross-sections. We emphasize that data is needed for bound-free (b - f) as well as bound-bound (b - b), and collisional as well as radiative transitions. Data is now needed for polyatomic molecules as well as atoms, ions, and diatomic molecules. In addition, data for the formation of, and extinction due to, liquid and solid phase dust grains is needed. A prioritization of species and data types is presented, and gives emphasis to Fe group elements, and elements important for the investigation of nucleosynthesis and Galactic chemical evolution, such as the -elements and n-capture elements. Special data needs for topical problems in the modeling of cool stars and brown dwarfs are described.

Breakpoint-forced and bound long waves in the nearshore: A model comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

List, Jeffrey H.; ,

1993-01-01

A finite-difference model is used to compare long wave amplitudes arising from two-group forced generation mechanisms in the nearshore: long waves generated at a time-varying breakpoint and the shallow-water extension of the bound long wave. Plane beach results demonstrate that the strong frequency selection in the outgoing wave predicted by the breakpoint-forcing mechanism may not be observable in field data due to this wave's relatively small size and its predicted phase relation with the bound wave. Over a bar/trough nearshore, it is shown that a strong frequency selection in shoreline amplitudes is not a unique result of the time-varying breakpoint model, but a general result of the interaction between topography and any broad-banded forcing of nearshore long waves.

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, L.uis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Tidal disruption of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 and a constraint on its mean density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boss, Alan P.

1994-01-01

The apparent tidal disruption of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (1993e) during a close encounter within approximately 1.62 planetary radii of Jupiter can be used along with theoretical models of tidal disruption to place an upper bound on the density of the predisruption body. Depending on the theoretical model used, these upper bounds range from rho(sub c) less than 0.702 +/- 0.080 g/cu cm for a simple analytical model calibrated by numerical smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations to rho(sub c) less than 1.50 +/- 0.17 g/cu cm for a detailed semianalytical model. The quoted uncertainties stem from an assumed uncertainty in the perijove radius. However, the uncertainty introduced by the different theoretical models is the major source of error; this uncertainty could be eliminated by future SPH simulations specialized to cometary disruptions, including the effects of initially prolate, spinning comets. If the SPH-based upper bound turns out to be most appropriate, it would be consistent with the predisruption body being a comet with a relatively low density and porous structure, as has been asserted previously based on observations of cometary outgassing. Regardless of which upper bound is preferable, the models all agree that the predisruption body could not have been a relatively high-density body, such as an asteroid with rho approximately = 2 g/cu cm.

The role of endocytic pathways in cellular uptake of plasma non-transferrin iron

PubMed Central

Sohn, Yang-Sung; Ghoti, Hussam; Breuer, William; Rachmilewitz, Eliezer; Attar, Samah; Weiss, Guenter; Cabantchik, Z. Ioav

2012-01-01

Background In transfusional siderosis, the iron binding capacity of plasma transferrin is often surpassed, with concomitant generation of non-transferrin-bound iron. Although implicated in tissue siderosis, non-transferrin-bound iron modes of cell ingress remain undefined, largely because of its variable composition and association with macromolecules. Using fluorescent tracing of labile iron in endosomal vesicles and cytosol, we examined the hypothesis that non-transferrin-bound iron fractions detected in iron overloaded patients enter cells via bulk endocytosis. Design and Methods Fluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry served as analytical tools for tracing non-transferrin-bound iron entry into endosomes with the redox-reactive macromolecular probe Oxyburst-Green and into the cytosol with cell-laden calcein green and calcein blue. Non-transferrin-bound iron-containing media were from sera of polytransfused thalassemia major patients and model iron substances detected in thalassemia major sera; cell models were cultured macrophages, and cardiac myoblasts and myocytes. Results Exposure of cells to ferric citrate together with albumin, or to non-transferrin-bound iron-containing sera from thalassemia major patients caused an increase in labile iron content of endosomes and cytosol in macrophages and cardiac cells. This increase was more striking in macrophages, but in both cell types was largely reduced by co-exposure to non-transferrin-bound iron-containing media with non-penetrating iron chelators or apo-transferrin, or by treatment with inhibitors of endocytosis. Endosomal iron accumulation traced with calcein-green was proportional to input non-transferrin-bound iron levels (r2=0.61) and also preventable by pre-chelation. Conclusions Our studies indicate that macromolecule-associated non-transferrin-bound iron can initially gain access into various cells via endocytic pathways, followed by iron translocation to the cytosol. Endocytic uptake of plasma non-transferrin-bound iron is a possible mechanism that can contribute to iron loading of cell types engaged in bulk/adsorptive endocytosis, highlighting the importance of its prevention by iron chelation. PMID:22180428

Investigation on extracellular polymeric substances, sludge flocs morphology, bound water release and dewatering performance of sewage sludge under pretreatment with modified phosphogypsum.

PubMed

Dai, Quxiu; Ma, Liping; Ren, Nanqi; Ning, Ping; Guo, Zhiying; Xie, Longgui; Gao, Haijun

2018-06-06

Modified phosphogypsum (MPG) was developed to improve dewaterability of sewage sludge, and dewatering performance, properties of treated sludge, composition and morphology distribution of EPS, dynamic analysis and multiple regression model on bound water release were investigated. The results showed that addition of MPG caused extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) disintegration through charge neutralization. Destruction of EPS promoted the formation of larger sludge flocs and the release of bound water into supernatant. Simultaneously, content of organics with molecular weight between 1000 and 7000 Da in soluble EPS (SB-EPS) increased with increasing of EPS dissolved into the liquid phase. Besides, about 8.8 kg•kg -1 DS of bound water was released after pretreatment with 40%DS MPG dosage. Additionally, a multiple linear regression model for bound water release was established, showing that lower loosely bond EPS (LB-EPS) content and specific resistance of filtration (SRF) may improve dehydration performance, and larger sludge flocs may be beneficial for sludge dewatering. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Broken Replica Symmetry Bounds in the Mean Field Spin Glass Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerra, Francesco

By using a simple interpolation argument, in previous work we have proven the existence of the thermodynamic limit, for mean field disordered models, including the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, and the Derrida p-spin model. Here we extend this argument in order to compare the limiting free energy with the expression given by the Parisi Ansatz, and including full spontaneous replica symmetry breaking. Our main result is that the quenched average of the free energy is bounded from below by the value given in the Parisi Ansatz, uniformly in the size of the system. Moreover, the difference between the two expressions is given in the form of a sum rule, extending our previous work on the comparison between the true free energy and its replica symmetric Sherrington-Kirkpatrick approximation. We give also a variational bound for the infinite volume limit of the ground state energy per site.

Discrete persistent-chain model for protein binding on DNA.

PubMed

Lam, Pui-Man; Zhen, Yi

2011-04-01

We describe and solve a discrete persistent-chain model of protein binding on DNA, involving an extra σ(i) at a site i of the DNA. This variable takes the value 1 or 0, depending on whether or not the site is occupied by a protein. In addition, if the site is occupied by a protein, there is an extra energy cost ɛ. For a small force, we obtain analytic expressions for the force-extension curve and the fraction of bound protein on the DNA. For higher forces, the model can be solved numerically to obtain force-extension curves and the average fraction of bound proteins as a function of applied force. Our model can be used to analyze experimental force-extension curves of protein binding on DNA, and hence deduce the number of bound proteins in the case of nonspecific binding. ©2011 American Physical Society

Bounded excursion stable gravastars and black holes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rocha, P; Miguelote, A Y; Chan, R

2008-06-15

Dynamical models of prototype gravastars were constructed in order to study their stability. The models are the Visser-Wiltshire three-layer gravastars, in which an infinitely thin spherical shell of stiff fluid divides the whole spacetime into two regions, where the internal region is de Sitter, and the external one is Schwarzschild. It is found that in some cases the models represent the 'bounded excursion' stable gravastars, where the thin shell is oscillating between two finite radii, while in other cases they collapse until the formation of black holes occurs. In the phase space, the region for the 'bounded excursion' gravastars ismore » very small in comparison to that of black holes, but not empty. Therefore, although the possibility of the existence of gravastars cannot be excluded from such dynamical models, our results indicate that, even if gravastars do indeed exist, that does not exclude the possibility of the existence of black holes.« less

Modeling Confidence Judgments, Response Times, and Multiple Choices in Decision Making: Recognition Memory and Motion Discrimination

PubMed Central

Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

2014-01-01

Confidence in judgments is a fundamental aspect of decision making, and tasks that collect confidence judgments are an instantiation of multiple-choice decision making. We present a model for confidence judgments in recognition memory tasks that uses a multiple-choice diffusion decision process with separate accumulators of evidence for the different confidence choices. The accumulator that first reaches its decision boundary determines which choice is made. Five algorithms for accumulating evidence were compared, and one of them produced proportions of responses for each of the choices and full response time distributions for each choice that closely matched empirical data. With this algorithm, an increase in the evidence in one accumulator is accompanied by a decrease in the others so that the total amount of evidence in the system is constant. Application of the model to the data from an earlier experiment (Ratcliff, McKoon, & Tindall, 1994) uncovered a relationship between the shapes of z-transformed receiver operating characteristics and the behavior of response time distributions. Both are explained in the model by the behavior of the decision boundaries. For generality, we also applied the decision model to a 3-choice motion discrimination task and found it accounted for data better than a competing class of models. The confidence model presents a coherent account of confidence judgments and response time that cannot be explained with currently popular signal detection theory analyses or dual-process models of recognition. PMID:23915088

Error Quantification and Confidence Assessment of Aerothermal Model Predictions for Hypersonic Aircraft (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

based confidence metric is used to compare several different model predictions with the experimental data. II. Aerothermal Model Definition and...whereas 5% measurement uncertainty is assumed for aerodynamic pressure and heat flux measurements 4p y and 4Q y . Bayesian updating according... definitive conclusions for these particular aerodynamic models. However, given the confidence associated with the 4 sdp predictions for Run 30 (H/D

Neutrinos secretly converting to lighter particles to please both KATRIN and the cosmos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farzan, Yasaman; Hannestad, Steen, E-mail: yasaman@theory.ipm.ac.ir, E-mail: sth@phys.au.dk

Within the framework of the Standard Model of particle physics and standard cosmology, observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) set stringent bounds on the sum of the masses of neutrinos. If these bounds are satisfied, the upcoming KATRIN experiment which is designed to probe neutrino mass down to ∼ 0.2 eV will observe only a null signal. We show that the bounds can be relaxed by introducing new interactions for the massive active neutrinos, making neutrino masses in the range observable by KATRIN compatible with cosmological bounds. Within this scenario, neutrinos convert to new stablemore » light particles by resonant production of intermediate states around a temperature of T∼ keV in the early Universe, leading to a much less pronounced suppression of density fluctuations compared to the standard model.« less

Performance bounds on parallel self-initiating discrete-event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1990-01-01

The use is considered of massively parallel architectures to execute discrete-event simulations of what is termed self-initiating models. A logical process in a self-initiating model schedules its own state re-evaluation times, independently of any other logical process, and sends its new state to other logical processes following the re-evaluation. The interest is in the effects of that communication on synchronization. The performance is considered of various synchronization protocols by deriving upper and lower bounds on optimal performance, upper bounds on Time Warp's performance, and lower bounds on the performance of a new conservative protocol. The analysis of Time Warp includes the overhead costs of state-saving and rollback. The analysis points out sufficient conditions for the conservative protocol to outperform Time Warp. The analysis also quantifies the sensitivity of performance to message fan-out, lookahead ability, and the probability distributions underlying the simulation.

Selective determination of aluminum bound with tannin in tea infusion.

PubMed

Erdemoğlu, Sema B; Güçer, Seref

2005-08-01

In this study, an analytical method for indirect measurement of Al bound with tannin in tea infusion was studied. This method utilizes the ability of the tannins to precipitate with protein. Separation conditions were investigated using model solutions. This method is uncomplicated, inexpensive and suitable for real samples. About 34% of the total Al in brew extracted from commercially available teas was bound to condensed and hydrolyzable tannins.

Non-College Bound Student Demonstration Project in Electronics and Laser-ElectroOptics--in Cooperation with Area High Schools, the Private Industry Council, and the Business Labor Council. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alfano, Kathleen

A model program was developed to increase the number of noncollege-bound students who were capable of succeeding in electronics and laser/electro-optics technology (LET) vocational training. The target population was noncollege-bound disadvantaged students, at least 60 percent minorities and women who were historically underrepresented in…

Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Host, Ole; Lahav, Ofer; Abdalla, Filipe B.

We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological observations. We compare the frequentist and Bayesian bounds on the effective electron neutrino mass m{sub {beta}} which the KATRIN neutrino mass experiment is expected to obtain, using both an analytical likelihood function and Monte Carlo simulations of KATRIN. Assuming a uniform prior in m{sub {beta}}, we find that a null result yields an upper bound of about 0.17 eV at 90% confidence in the Bayesian analysis, to be compared with the frequentist KATRIN reference value of 0.20 eV. This is a significant difference whenmore » judged relative to the systematic and statistical uncertainties of the experiment. On the other hand, an input m{sub {beta}}=0.35 eV, which is the KATRIN 5{sigma} detection threshold, would be detected at virtually the same level. Finally, we combine the simulated KATRIN results with cosmological data in the form of present (post-WMAP) and future (simulated Planck) observations. If an input of m{sub {beta}}=0.2 eV is assumed in our simulations, KATRIN alone excludes a zero neutrino mass at 2.2{sigma}. Adding Planck data increases the probability of detection to a median 2.7{sigma}. The analysis highlights the importance of combining cosmological and laboratory data on an equal footing.« less

Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-01

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Poster error probability in the Mu-11 Sequential Ranging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coyle, C. W.

1981-01-01

An expression is derived for the posterior error probability in the Mu-2 Sequential Ranging System. An algorithm is developed which closely bounds the exact answer and can be implemented in the machine software. A computer simulation is provided to illustrate the improved level of confidence in a ranging acquisition using this figure of merit as compared to that using only the prior probabilities. In a simulation of 20,000 acquisitions with an experimentally determined threshold setting, the algorithm detected 90% of the actual errors and made false indication of errors on 0.2% of the acquisitions.

Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

PubMed

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-08

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Local approximation of a metapopulation's equilibrium.

PubMed

Barbour, A D; McVinish, R; Pollett, P K

2018-04-18

We consider the approximation of the equilibrium of a metapopulation model, in which a finite number of patches are randomly distributed over a bounded subset [Formula: see text] of Euclidean space. The approximation is good when a large number of patches contribute to the colonization pressure on any given unoccupied patch, and when the quality of the patches varies little over the length scale determined by the colonization radius. If this is the case, the equilibrium probability of a patch at z being occupied is shown to be close to [Formula: see text], the equilibrium occupation probability in Levins's model, at any point [Formula: see text] not too close to the boundary, if the local colonization pressure and extinction rates appropriate to z are assumed. The approximation is justified by giving explicit upper and lower bounds for the occupation probabilities, expressed in terms of the model parameters. Since the patches are distributed randomly, the occupation probabilities are also random, and we complement our bounds with explicit bounds on the probability that they are satisfied at all patches simultaneously.

Preparatory steps for a robust dynamic model for organically bound tritium dynamics in agricultural crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melintescu, A.; Galeriu, D.; Diabate, S.

2015-03-15

The processes involved in tritium transfer in crops are complex and regulated by many feedback mechanisms. A full mechanistic model is difficult to develop due to the complexity of the processes involved in tritium transfer and environmental conditions. First, a review of existing models (ORYZA2000, CROPTRIT and WOFOST) presenting their features and limits, is made. Secondly, the preparatory steps for a robust model are discussed, considering the role of dry matter and photosynthesis contribution to the OBT (Organically Bound Tritium) dynamics in crops.

Gene network reconstruction from transcriptional dynamics under kinetic model uncertainty: a case for the second derivative

PubMed Central

Bickel, David R.; Montazeri, Zahra; Hsieh, Pei-Chun; Beatty, Mary; Lawit, Shai J.; Bate, Nicholas J.

2009-01-01

Motivation: Measurements of gene expression over time enable the reconstruction of transcriptional networks. However, Bayesian networks and many other current reconstruction methods rely on assumptions that conflict with the differential equations that describe transcriptional kinetics. Practical approximations of kinetic models would enable inferring causal relationships between genes from expression data of microarray, tag-based and conventional platforms, but conclusions are sensitive to the assumptions made. Results: The representation of a sufficiently large portion of genome enables computation of an upper bound on how much confidence one may place in influences between genes on the basis of expression data. Information about which genes encode transcription factors is not necessary but may be incorporated if available. The methodology is generalized to cover cases in which expression measurements are missing for many of the genes that might control the transcription of the genes of interest. The assumption that the gene expression level is roughly proportional to the rate of translation led to better empirical performance than did either the assumption that the gene expression level is roughly proportional to the protein level or the Bayesian model average of both assumptions. Availability: http://www.oisb.ca points to R code implementing the methods (R Development Core Team 2004). Contact: dbickel@uottawa.ca Supplementary information: http://www.davidbickel.com PMID:19218351

Relaxivity-iron calibration in hepatic iron overload: Probing underlying biophysical mechanisms using a Monte Carlo model

PubMed Central

Ghugre, Nilesh R.; Wood, John C.

2010-01-01

Iron overload is a serious condition for patients with β-thalassemia, transfusion-dependent sickle cell anemia and inherited disorders of iron metabolism. MRI is becoming increasingly important in non-invasive quantification of tissue iron, overcoming the drawbacks of traditional techniques (liver biopsy). R2*(1/T2*) rises linearly with iron while R2(1/T2) has a curvilinear relationship in human liver. Although recent work has demonstrated clinically-valid estimates of human liver iron, the calibration varies with MRI sequence, field strength, iron chelation therapy and organ imaged, forcing recalibration in patients. To understand and correct these limitations, a thorough understanding of the underlying biophysics is of critical importance. Toward this end, a Monte Carlo based approach, using human liver as a ‘model’ tissue system, was employed to determine the contribution of particle size and distribution on MRI signal relaxation. Relaxivities were determined for hepatic iron concentrations (HIC) ranging from 0.5–40 mg iron/ g dry tissue weight. Model predictions captured the linear and curvilinear relationship of R2* and R2 with HIC respectively and were within in vivo confidence bounds; contact or chemical exchange mechanisms were not necessary. A validated and optimized model will aid understanding and quantification of iron-mediated relaxivity in tissues where biopsy is not feasible (heart, spleen). PMID:21337413

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Evaluation of an Imputed Pitch Velocity Model of the Auditory Kappa Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henry, Molly J.; McAuley, J. Devin

2009-01-01

Three experiments evaluated an imputed pitch velocity model of the auditory kappa effect. Listeners heard 3-tone sequences and judged the timing of the middle (target) tone relative to the timing of the 1st and 3rd (bounding) tones. Experiment 1 held pitch constant but varied the time (T) interval between bounding tones (T = 728, 1,000, or 1,600…

Constraining the generalized uncertainty principle with the atomic weak-equivalence-principle test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Dongfeng; Wang, Jin; Zhan, Mingsheng

2017-04-01

Various models of quantum gravity imply the Planck-scale modifications of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle into a so-called generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). The GUP effects on high-energy physics, cosmology, and astrophysics have been extensively studied. Here, we focus on the weak-equivalence-principle (WEP) violation induced by the GUP. Results from the WEP test with the 85Rb-87Rb dual-species atom interferometer are used to set upper bounds on parameters in two GUP proposals. A 1045-level bound on the Kempf-Mangano-Mann proposal and a 1027-level bound on Maggiore's proposal, which are consistent with bounds from other experiments, are obtained. All these bounds have huge room for improvement in the future.

Dose Assessment of Los Alamos National Laboratory-Derived Residual Radionuclides in Soils within C Tracts (C-2, C-3, and C-4) for Land Transfer Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gillis, Jessica M.; Whicker, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-26

Three separate Sampling and Analysis Plans (SAPs) were prepared for tracts C-2, C-3, and C-4. The objective of sampling was to confirm, within the stated statistical confidence limits, that the mean levels of potential radioactive residual contamination in soils in the C Tracts are documented, in appropriate units, and are below the 15 mrem/y (150 μSv/y) Screening Action Levels (SALs). Results show that radionuclide concentration upper-bound 95% confidence levels were close to background levels, with the exception of Pu-239 and Cs-137 being slightly elevated above background, and all measurements were below the ALs and meet the real property release criteriamore » for future construction or recreational use. A follow-up ALARA analysis showed that the costs of cleanup of the soil in areas of elevated concentration and confirmatory sampling would far exceed any benefit from dose reduction.« less

Absorption enhancement in type-II coupled quantum rings due to existence of quasi-bound states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Chi-Ti; Lin, Shih-Yen; Chang, Shu-Wei

2018-02-01

The absorption of type-II nanostructures is often weaker than type-I counterpart due to spatially separated electrons and holes. We model the bound-to-continuum absorption of type-II quantum rings (QRs) using a multiband source-radiation approach using the retarded Green function in the cylindrical coordinate system. The selection rules due to the circular symmetry for allowed transitions of absorption are utilized. The bound-tocontinuum absorptions of type-II GaSb coupled and uncoupled QRs embedded in GaAs matrix are compared here. The GaSb QRs act as energy barriers for electrons but potential wells for holes. For the coupled QR structure, the region sandwiched between two QRs forms a potential reservoir of quasi-bound electrons. Electrons in these states, though look like bound ones, would ultimately tunnel out of the reservoir through barriers. Multiband perfectly-matched layers are introduced to model the tunneling of quasi-bound states into open space. Resonance peaks are observed on the absorption spectra of type-II coupled QRs due to the formation of quasi-bound states in conduction bands, but no resonance exist in the uncoupled QR. The tunneling time of these metastable states can be extracted from the resonance and is in the order of ten femtoseconds. Absorption of coupled QRs is significantly enhanced as compared to that of uncoupled ones in certain spectral windows of interest. These features may improve the performance of photon detectors and photovoltaic devices based on type-II semiconductor nanostructures.

When reality is out of focus: Can people tell whether their beliefs and judgments are correct or wrong?

PubMed

Koriat, Asher

2018-05-01

Can we tell whether our beliefs and judgments are correct or wrong? Results across many domains indicate that people are skilled at discriminating between correct and wrong answers, endorsing the former with greater confidence than the latter. However, it has not been realized that because of people's adaptation to reality, representative samples of items tend to favor the correct answer, yielding object-level accuracy (OLA) that is considerably better than chance. Across 16 experiments that used 2-alternative forced-choice items from several domains, the confidence/accuracy (C/A) relationship was positive for items with OLA >50%, but consistently negative across items with OLA <50%. A systematic sampling of items that covered the full range of OLA (0-100%) yielded a U-function relating confidence to OLA. The results imply that the positive C/A relationship that has been reported in many studies is an artifact of OLA being better than chance rather than representing a general ability to discriminate between correct and wrong responses. However, the results also support the ecological approach, suggesting that confidence is based on a frugal, "bounded" heuristic that has been specifically tailored to the ecological structure of the natural environment. This heuristic is used despite the fact that for items with OLA <50%, it yields confidence judgments that are counterdiagnostic of accuracy. Our ability to tell between correct and wrong judgments is confined to the probability structure of the world we live in. The results were discussed in terms of the contrast between systematic design and representative design. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Mesolimbic confidence signals guide perceptual learning in the absence of external feedback

PubMed Central

Guggenmos, Matthias; Wilbertz, Gregor; Hebart, Martin N; Sterzer, Philipp

2016-01-01

It is well established that learning can occur without external feedback, yet normative reinforcement learning theories have difficulties explaining such instances of learning. Here, we propose that human observers are capable of generating their own feedback signals by monitoring internal decision variables. We investigated this hypothesis in a visual perceptual learning task using fMRI and confidence reports as a measure for this monitoring process. Employing a novel computational model in which learning is guided by confidence-based reinforcement signals, we found that mesolimbic brain areas encoded both anticipation and prediction error of confidence—in remarkable similarity to previous findings for external reward-based feedback. We demonstrate that the model accounts for choice and confidence reports and show that the mesolimbic confidence prediction error modulation derived through the model predicts individual learning success. These results provide a mechanistic neurobiological explanation for learning without external feedback by augmenting reinforcement models with confidence-based feedback. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13388.001 PMID:27021283

Using State Merging and State Pruning to Address the Path Explosion Problem Faced by Symbolic Execution

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-19

urgent and compelling. Recent efforts in this area automate program analysis techniques using model checking and symbolic execution [2, 5–7]. These...bounded model checking tool for x86 binary programs developed at the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT). Jiseki creates a bit-vector logic model based...assume there are n different paths through the function foo . The program could potentially call the function foo a bound number of times, resulting in n

Balance Confidence: A Predictor of Perceived Physical Function, Perceived Mobility, and Perceived Recovery 1 Year After Inpatient Stroke Rehabilitation.

PubMed

Torkia, Caryne; Best, Krista L; Miller, William C; Eng, Janice J

2016-07-01

To estimate the effect of balance confidence measured at 1 month poststroke rehabilitation on perceived physical function, mobility, and stroke recovery 12 months later. Longitudinal study (secondary analysis). Multisite, community-based. Community-dwelling individuals (N=69) with stroke living in a home setting. Not applicable. Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale; physical function and mobility subscales of the Stroke Impact Scale 3.0; and a single item from the Stroke Impact Scale for perceived recovery. Balance confidence at 1 month postdischarge from inpatient rehabilitation predicts perceived physical function (model 1), mobility (model 2), and recovery (model 3) 12 months later after adjusting for important covariates. The covariates included in model 1 were age, sex, basic mobility, and depression. The covariates selected for model 2 were age, sex, balance capacity, and anxiety, and the covariates in model 3 were age, sex, walking capacity, and social support. The amount of variance in perceived physical function, perceived mobility, and perceived recovery that balance confidence accounted for was 12%, 9%, and 10%, respectively. After discharge from inpatient rehabilitation poststroke, balance confidence predicts individuals' perceived physical function, mobility, and recovery 12 months later. There is a need to address balance confidence at discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking hydrological model predictive capability for UK River flows and flood peaks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Rosanna; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Data and hydrological models are now available for national hydrological analyses. However, hydrological model performance varies between catchments, and lumped, conceptual models are not able to produce adequate simulations everywhere. This study aims to benchmark hydrological model performance for catchments across the United Kingdom within an uncertainty analysis framework. We have applied four hydrological models from the FUSE framework to 1128 catchments across the UK. These models are all lumped models and run at a daily timestep, but differ in the model structural architecture and process parameterisations, therefore producing different but equally plausible simulations. We apply FUSE over a 20 year period from 1988-2008, within a GLUE Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses framework. Model performance was evaluated for each catchment, model structure and parameter set using standard performance metrics. These were calculated both for the whole time series and to assess seasonal differences in model performance. The GLUE uncertainty analysis framework was then applied to produce simulated 5th and 95th percentile uncertainty bounds for the daily flow time-series and additionally the annual maximum prediction bounds for each catchment. The results show that the model performance varies significantly in space and time depending on catchment characteristics including climate, geology and human impact. We identify regions where models are systematically failing to produce good results, and present reasons why this could be the case. We also identify regions or catchment characteristics where one model performs better than others, and have explored what structural component or parameterisation enables certain models to produce better simulations in these catchments. Model predictive capability was assessed for each catchment, through looking at the ability of the models to produce discharge prediction bounds which successfully bound the observed discharge. These results improve our understanding of the predictive capability of simple conceptual hydrological models across the UK and help us to identify where further effort is needed to develop modelling approaches to better represent different catchment and climate typologies.

Search for Dark Matter Annihilation in Galaxy Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisanti, Mariangela; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Rodd, Nicholas L.; Safdi, Benjamin R.

2018-03-01

We use 413 weeks of publicly available Fermi Pass 8 gamma-ray data combined with recently developed galaxy group catalogs to search for evidence of dark matter annihilation in extragalactic halos. In our study, we use luminosity-based mass estimates and mass-to-concentration relations to infer the J factors and associated uncertainties for hundreds of galaxy groups within a redshift range z ≲0.03 . We employ a conservative substructure boost factor model, which only enhances the sensitivity by an O (1 ) factor. No significant evidence for dark matter annihilation is found, and we exclude thermal relic cross sections for dark matter masses below ˜30 GeV to 95% confidence in the b b ¯ annihilation channel. These bounds are comparable to those from Milky Way dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies. The results of our analysis increase the tension but do not rule out the dark matter interpretation of the Galactic Center excess. We provide a catalog of the galaxy groups used in this study and their inferred properties, which can be broadly applied to searches for extragalactic dark matter.

Search for Dark Matter Annihilation in Galaxy Groups.

PubMed

Lisanti, Mariangela; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Rodd, Nicholas L; Safdi, Benjamin R

2018-03-09

We use 413 weeks of publicly available Fermi Pass 8 gamma-ray data combined with recently developed galaxy group catalogs to search for evidence of dark matter annihilation in extragalactic halos. In our study, we use luminosity-based mass estimates and mass-to-concentration relations to infer the J factors and associated uncertainties for hundreds of galaxy groups within a redshift range z≲0.03. We employ a conservative substructure boost factor model, which only enhances the sensitivity by an O(1) factor. No significant evidence for dark matter annihilation is found, and we exclude thermal relic cross sections for dark matter masses below ∼30  GeV to 95% confidence in the bb[over ¯] annihilation channel. These bounds are comparable to those from Milky Way dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies. The results of our analysis increase the tension but do not rule out the dark matter interpretation of the Galactic Center excess. We provide a catalog of the galaxy groups used in this study and their inferred properties, which can be broadly applied to searches for extragalactic dark matter.

AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference, 34th and AIAA/ASME Adaptive Structures Forum, La Jolla, CA, Apr. 19-22, 1993, Technical Papers. Pts. 1-6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topics addressed include the prediction of helicopter component loads using neural networks, spacecraft on-orbit coupled loads analysis, hypersonic flutter of a curved shallow panel with aerodynamic heating, thermal-acoustic fatigue of ceramic matrix composite materials, transition elements based on transfinite interpolation, damage progression in stiffened composite panels, a direct treatment of min-max dynamic response optimization problems, and sources of helicopter rotor hub inplane shears. Also discussed are dynamics of a layered elastic system, confidence bounds on structural reliability, mixed triangular space-time finite elements, advanced transparency development for USAF aircraft, a low-velocity impact on a graphite/PEEK, an automated mode-tracking strategy, transonic flutter suppression by a passive flap, a nonlinear response of composite panels to random excitation, an optimal placement of elastic supports on a simply supported plate, a probabilistic assessment of composite structures, a model for mode I failure of laminated composites, a residual flexibility approach to multibody dynamics,and multilayer piezoelectric actuators.

The size distribution of inhabited planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Fergus

2016-02-01

Earth-like planets are expected to provide the greatest opportunity for the detection of life beyond the Solar system. However, our planet cannot be considered a fair sample, especially if intelligent life exists elsewhere. Just as a person's country of origin is a biased sample among countries, so too their planet of origin may be a biased sample among planets. The magnitude of this effect can be substantial: over 98 per cent of the world's population live in a country larger than the median. In the context of a simple model where the mean population density is invariant to planet size, we infer that a given inhabited planet (such as our nearest neighbour) has a radius r < 1.2r⊕ (95 per cent confidence bound). We show that this result is likely to hold not only for planets hosting advanced life, but also for those which harbour primitive life forms. Further, inferences may be drawn for any variable which influences population size. For example, since population density is widely observed to decline with increasing body mass, we conclude that most intelligent species are expected to exceed 300 kg.

Adjoint-Based Implicit Uncertainty Analysis for Figures of Merit in a Laser Inertial Fusion Engine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seifried, J E; Fratoni, M; Kramer, K J

A primary purpose of computational models is to inform design decisions and, in order to make those decisions reliably, the confidence in the results of such models must be estimated. Monte Carlo neutron transport models are common tools for reactor designers. These types of models contain several sources of uncertainty that propagate onto the model predictions. Two uncertainties worthy of note are (1) experimental and evaluation uncertainties of nuclear data that inform all neutron transport models and (2) statistical counting precision, which all results of a Monte Carlo codes contain. Adjoint-based implicit uncertainty analyses allow for the consideration of anymore » number of uncertain input quantities and their effects upon the confidence of figures of merit with only a handful of forward and adjoint transport calculations. When considering a rich set of uncertain inputs, adjoint-based methods remain hundreds of times more computationally efficient than Direct Monte-Carlo methods. The LIFE (Laser Inertial Fusion Energy) engine is a concept being developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Various options exist for the LIFE blanket, depending on the mission of the design. The depleted uranium hybrid LIFE blanket design strives to close the fission fuel cycle without enrichment or reprocessing, while simultaneously achieving high discharge burnups with reduced proliferation concerns. Neutron transport results that are central to the operation of the design are tritium production for fusion fuel, fission of fissile isotopes for energy multiplication, and production of fissile isotopes for sustained power. In previous work, explicit cross-sectional uncertainty analyses were performed for reaction rates related to the figures of merit for the depleted uranium hybrid LIFE blanket. Counting precision was also quantified for both the figures of merit themselves and the cross-sectional uncertainty estimates to gauge the validity of the analysis. All cross-sectional uncertainties were small (0.1-0.8%), bounded counting uncertainties, and were precise with regard to counting precision. Adjoint/importance distributions were generated for the same reaction rates. The current work leverages those adjoint distributions to transition from explicit sensitivities, in which the neutron flux is constrained, to implicit sensitivities, in which the neutron flux responds to input perturbations. This treatment vastly expands the set of data that contribute to uncertainties to produce larger, more physically accurate uncertainty estimates.« less

Stochastic satisficing account of confidence in uncertain value-based decisions

PubMed Central

Bahrami, Bahador; Keramati, Mehdi

2018-01-01

Every day we make choices under uncertainty; choosing what route to work or which queue in a supermarket to take, for example. It is unclear how outcome variance, e.g. uncertainty about waiting time in a queue, affects decisions and confidence when outcome is stochastic and continuous. How does one evaluate and choose between an option with unreliable but high expected reward, and an option with more certain but lower expected reward? Here we used an experimental design where two choices’ payoffs took continuous values, to examine the effect of outcome variance on decision and confidence. We found that our participants’ probability of choosing the good (high expected reward) option decreased when the good or the bad options’ payoffs were more variable. Their confidence ratings were affected by outcome variability, but only when choosing the good option. Unlike perceptual detection tasks, confidence ratings correlated only weakly with decisions’ time, but correlated with the consistency of trial-by-trial choices. Inspired by the satisficing heuristic, we propose a “stochastic satisficing” (SSAT) model for evaluating options with continuous uncertain outcomes. In this model, options are evaluated by their probability of exceeding an acceptability threshold, and confidence reports scale with the chosen option’s thus-defined satisficing probability. Participants’ decisions were best explained by an expected reward model, while the SSAT model provided the best prediction of decision confidence. We further tested and verified the predictions of this model in a second experiment. Our model and experimental results generalize the models of metacognition from perceptual detection tasks to continuous-value based decisions. Finally, we discuss how the stochastic satisficing account of decision confidence serves psychological and social purposes associated with the evaluation, communication and justification of decision-making. PMID:29621325

Implementing and Bounding a Cascade Heuristic for Large-Scale Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

solving the monolith, we develop a method for producing lower bounds to the optimal objective function value. To do this, we solve a new integer...as developing and analyzing methods for producing lower bounds to the optimal objective function value of the seminal problem monolith, which this...length of the window decreases, the end effects of the model typically increase (Zerr, 2016). There are four primary methods for correcting end

Estimating riparian understory vegetation cover with beta regression and copula models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eskelson, Bianca N.I.; Madsen, Lisa; Hagar, Joan C.; Temesgen, Hailemariam

2011-01-01

Understory vegetation communities are critical components of forest ecosystems. As a result, the importance of modeling understory vegetation characteristics in forested landscapes has become more apparent. Abundance measures such as shrub cover are bounded between 0 and 1, exhibit heteroscedastic error variance, and are often subject to spatial dependence. These distributional features tend to be ignored when shrub cover data are analyzed. The beta distribution has been used successfully to describe the frequency distribution of vegetation cover. Beta regression models ignoring spatial dependence (BR) and accounting for spatial dependence (BRdep) were used to estimate percent shrub cover as a function of topographic conditions and overstory vegetation structure in riparian zones in western Oregon. The BR models showed poor explanatory power (pseudo-R2 ≤ 0.34) but outperformed ordinary least-squares (OLS) and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression models with logit-transformed response in terms of mean square prediction error and absolute bias. We introduce a copula (COP) model that is based on the beta distribution and accounts for spatial dependence. A simulation study was designed to illustrate the effects of incorrectly assuming normality, equal variance, and spatial independence. It showed that BR, BRdep, and COP models provide unbiased parameter estimates, whereas OLS and GLS models result in slightly biased estimates for two of the three parameters. On the basis of the simulation study, 93–97% of the GLS, BRdep, and COP confidence intervals covered the true parameters, whereas OLS and BR only resulted in 84–88% coverage, which demonstrated the superiority of GLS, BRdep, and COP over OLS and BR models in providing standard errors for the parameter estimates in the presence of spatial dependence.

Hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin based on an ensemble derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L.; Lim, Wee Ho; Farquhar, Graham D.

2011-12-01

We assess hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) using an ensemble of 39 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model runs based on the A1B emissions scenario. The raw model output for precipitation, P, was adjusted using a quantile-based bias correction approach. We found that the projected change, ΔP, between two 30 year periods (2070-2099 less 1970-1999) was little affected by bias correction. The range for ΔP among models was large (˜±150 mm yr-1) with all-model run and all-model ensemble averages (4.9 and -8.1 mm yr-1) near zero, against a background climatological P of ˜500 mm yr-1. We found that the time series of actually observed annual P over the MDB was indistinguishable from that generated by a purely random process. Importantly, nearly all the model runs showed similar behavior. We used these facts to develop a new approach to understanding variability in projections of ΔP. By plotting ΔP versus the variance of the time series, we could easily identify model runs with projections for ΔP that were beyond the bounds expected from purely random variations. For the MDB, we anticipate that a purely random process could lead to differences of ±57 mm yr-1 (95% confidence) between successive 30 year periods. This is equivalent to ±11% of the climatological P and translates into variations in runoff of around ±29%. This sets a baseline for gauging modeled and/or observed changes.

Perturbative unitarity constraints on gauge portals

DOE PAGES

El Hedri, Sonia; Shepherd, William; Walker, Devin G. E.

2017-10-03

Dark matter that was once in thermal equilibrium with the Standard Model is generally prohibited from obtaining all of its mass from the electroweak phase transition. This implies a new scale of physics and mediator particles to facilitate dark matter annihilation. In this work, we focus on dark matter that annihilates through a generic gauge boson portal. We show how partial wave unitarity places upper bounds on the dark gauge boson, dark Higgs and dark matter masses. Outside of well-defined fine-tuned regions, we find an upper bound of 9 TeV for the dark matter mass when the dark Higgs andmore » dark gauge bosons both facilitate the dark matter annihilations. In this scenario, the upper bound on the dark Higgs and dark gauge boson masses are 10 TeV and 16 TeV, respectively. When only the dark gauge boson facilitates dark matter annihilations, we find an upper bound of 3 TeV and 6 TeV for the dark matter and dark gauge boson, respectively. Overall, using the gauge portal as a template, we describe a method to not only place upper bounds on the dark matter mass but also on the new particles with Standard Model quantum numbers. Here, we briefly discuss the reach of future accelerator, direct and indirect detection experiments for this class of models.« less

Perturbative unitarity constraints on gauge portals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Hedri, Sonia; Shepherd, William; Walker, Devin G. E.

Dark matter that was once in thermal equilibrium with the Standard Model is generally prohibited from obtaining all of its mass from the electroweak phase transition. This implies a new scale of physics and mediator particles to facilitate dark matter annihilation. In this work, we focus on dark matter that annihilates through a generic gauge boson portal. We show how partial wave unitarity places upper bounds on the dark gauge boson, dark Higgs and dark matter masses. Outside of well-defined fine-tuned regions, we find an upper bound of 9 TeV for the dark matter mass when the dark Higgs andmore » dark gauge bosons both facilitate the dark matter annihilations. In this scenario, the upper bound on the dark Higgs and dark gauge boson masses are 10 TeV and 16 TeV, respectively. When only the dark gauge boson facilitates dark matter annihilations, we find an upper bound of 3 TeV and 6 TeV for the dark matter and dark gauge boson, respectively. Overall, using the gauge portal as a template, we describe a method to not only place upper bounds on the dark matter mass but also on the new particles with Standard Model quantum numbers. Here, we briefly discuss the reach of future accelerator, direct and indirect detection experiments for this class of models.« less

Limits on estimating the width of thin tubular structures in 3D images.

PubMed

Wörz, Stefan; Rohr, Karl

2006-01-01

This work studies limits on estimating the width of thin tubular structures in 3D images. Based on nonlinear estimation theory we analyze the minimal stochastic error of estimating the width. Given a 3D analytic model of the image intensities of tubular structures, we derive a closed-form expression for the Cramér-Rao bound of the width estimate under image noise. We use the derived lower bound as a benchmark and compare it with three previously proposed accuracy limits for vessel width estimation. Moreover, by experimental investigations we demonstrate that the derived lower bound can be achieved by fitting a 3D parametric intensity model directly to the image data.

Clinical reasoning in the real world is mediated by bounded rationality: implications for diagnostic clinical practice guidelines.

PubMed

Bonilauri Ferreira, Ana Paula Ribeiro; Ferreira, Rodrigo Fernando; Rajgor, Dimple; Shah, Jatin; Menezes, Andrea; Pietrobon, Ricardo

2010-04-20

Little is known about the reasoning mechanisms used by physicians in decision-making and how this compares to diagnostic clinical practice guidelines. We explored the clinical reasoning process in a real life environment. This is a qualitative study evaluating transcriptions of sixteen physicians' reasoning during appointments with patients, clinical discussions between specialists, and personal interviews with physicians affiliated to a hospital in Brazil. FOUR MAIN THEMES WERE IDENTIFIED: simple and robust heuristics, extensive use of social environment rationality, attempts to prove diagnostic and therapeutic hypothesis while refuting potential contradictions using positive test strategy, and reaching the saturation point. Physicians constantly attempted to prove their initial hypothesis while trying to refute any contradictions. While social environment rationality was the main factor in the determination of all steps of the clinical reasoning process, factors such as referral letters and number of contradictions associated with the initial hypothesis had influence on physicians' confidence and determination of the threshold to reach a final decision. Physicians rely on simple heuristics associated with environmental factors. This model allows for robustness, simplicity, and cognitive energy saving. Since this model does not fit into current diagnostic clinical practice guidelines, we make some propositions to help its integration.

A Method For The Verification Of Wire Crimp Compression Using Ultrasonic Inspection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cramer, K. E.; Perey, Daniel F.; Yost, William t.

2010-01-01

The development of a new ultrasonic measurement technique to assess quantitatively wire crimp terminations is discussed. The amplitude change of a compressional ultrasonic wave propagating at right angles to the wire axis and through the junction of a crimp termination is shown to correlate with the results of a destructive pull test, which is a standard for assessing crimp wire junction quality. To demonstrate the technique, the case of incomplete compression of crimped connections is ultrasonically tested, and the results are correlated with pull tests. Results show that the nondestructive ultrasonic measurement technique consistently predicts good crimps when the ultrasonic transmission is above a certain threshold amplitude level. A quantitative measure of the quality of the crimped connection based on the ultrasonic energy transmitted is shown to respond accurately to crimp quality. A wave propagation model, solved by finite element analysis, describes the compressional ultrasonic wave propagation through the junction during the crimping process. This model is in agreement within 6% of the ultrasonic measurements. A prototype instrument for applying this technique while wire crimps are installed is also presented. The instrument is based on a two-jaw type crimp tool suitable for butt-splice type connections. A comparison of the results of two different instruments is presented and shows reproducibility between instruments within a 95% confidence bound.

Clinical Reasoning in the Real World Is Mediated by Bounded Rationality: Implications for Diagnostic Clinical Practice Guidelines

PubMed Central

Bonilauri Ferreira, Ana Paula Ribeiro; Ferreira, Rodrigo Fernando; Rajgor, Dimple; Shah, Jatin; Menezes, Andrea; Pietrobon, Ricardo

2010-01-01

Background Little is known about the reasoning mechanisms used by physicians in decision-making and how this compares to diagnostic clinical practice guidelines. We explored the clinical reasoning process in a real life environment. Method This is a qualitative study evaluating transcriptions of sixteen physicians' reasoning during appointments with patients, clinical discussions between specialists, and personal interviews with physicians affiliated to a hospital in Brazil. Results Four main themes were identified: simple and robust heuristics, extensive use of social environment rationality, attempts to prove diagnostic and therapeutic hypothesis while refuting potential contradictions using positive test strategy, and reaching the saturation point. Physicians constantly attempted to prove their initial hypothesis while trying to refute any contradictions. While social environment rationality was the main factor in the determination of all steps of the clinical reasoning process, factors such as referral letters and number of contradictions associated with the initial hypothesis had influence on physicians' confidence and determination of the threshold to reach a final decision. Discussion Physicians rely on simple heuristics associated with environmental factors. This model allows for robustness, simplicity, and cognitive energy saving. Since this model does not fit into current diagnostic clinical practice guidelines, we make some propositions to help its integration. PMID:20421920

CNC machine tool's wear diagnostic and prognostic by using dynamic Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobon-Mejia, D. A.; Medjaher, K.; Zerhouni, N.

2012-04-01

The failure of critical components in industrial systems may have negative consequences on the availability, the productivity, the security and the environment. To avoid such situations, the health condition of the physical system, and particularly of its critical components, can be constantly assessed by using the monitoring data to perform on-line system diagnostics and prognostics. The present paper is a contribution on the assessment of the health condition of a computer numerical control (CNC) tool machine and the estimation of its remaining useful life (RUL). The proposed method relies on two main phases: an off-line phase and an on-line phase. During the first phase, the raw data provided by the sensors are processed to extract reliable features. These latter are used as inputs of learning algorithms in order to generate the models that represent the wear's behavior of the cutting tool. Then, in the second phase, which is an assessment one, the constructed models are exploited to identify the tool's current health state, predict its RUL and the associated confidence bounds. The proposed method is applied on a benchmark of condition monitoring data gathered during several cuts of a CNC tool. Simulation results are obtained and discussed at the end of the paper.

Phylogeography of the Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus): testing aridland biogeographical hypotheses across the Nearctic-Neotropical transition.

PubMed

Devitt, Thomas J

2006-12-01

The Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus) is a widespread, polytypic taxon inhabiting arid regions from the warm deserts of the southwestern United States southward along the Pacific versant of Mexico to the tropical deciduous forests of Mesoamerica. This broadly distributed species provides a unique opportunity to evaluate a priori biogeographical hypotheses spanning two major distinct biogeographical realms (the Nearctic and Neotropical) that are usually treated separately in phylogeographical analyses. I investigated the phylogeography of T. biscutatus using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from across this species' range. Phylogenetic analyses recovered five well-supported clades whose boundaries are concordant with existing geographical barriers, a pattern consistent with a model of vicariant allopatric divergence. Assuming a vicariance model, divergence times between mitochondrial lineages were estimated using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock methods calibrated using geological information from putative vicariant events. Divergence time point estimates were bounded by broad confidence intervals, and thus these highly conservative estimates should be considered tentative hypotheses at best. Comparison of mtDNA lineages and taxa traditionally recognized as subspecies based on morphology suggest this taxon is comprised of multiple independent lineages at various stages of divergence, ranging from putative secondary contact and hybridization to sympatry of 'subspecies'.

Parametric methods outperformed non-parametric methods in comparisons of discrete numerical variables.

PubMed

Fagerland, Morten W; Sandvik, Leiv; Mowinckel, Petter

2011-04-13

The number of events per individual is a widely reported variable in medical research papers. Such variables are the most common representation of the general variable type called discrete numerical. There is currently no consensus on how to compare and present such variables, and recommendations are lacking. The objective of this paper is to present recommendations for analysis and presentation of results for discrete numerical variables. Two simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of hypothesis tests and confidence interval methods for variables with outcomes {0, 1, 2}, {0, 1, 2, 3}, {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}, and {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, using the difference between the means as an effect measure. The Welch U test (the T test with adjustment for unequal variances) and its associated confidence interval performed well for almost all situations considered. The Brunner-Munzel test also performed well, except for small sample sizes (10 in each group). The ordinary T test, the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, the percentile bootstrap interval, and the bootstrap-t interval did not perform satisfactorily. The difference between the means is an appropriate effect measure for comparing two independent discrete numerical variables that has both lower and upper bounds. To analyze this problem, we encourage more frequent use of parametric hypothesis tests and confidence intervals.

A Confidant Support and Problem Solving Model of Divorced Fathers’ Parenting

PubMed Central

DeGarmo, David S.; Forgatch, Marion S.

2011-01-01

This study tested a hypothesized social interaction learning (SIL) model of confidant support and paternal parenting. The latent growth curve analysis employed 230 recently divorced fathers, of which 177 enrolled support confidants, to test confidant support as a predictor of problem solving outcomes and problem solving outcomes as predictors of change in fathers’ parenting. Fathers’ parenting was hypothesized to predict growth in child behavior. Observational measures of support behaviors and problem solving outcomes were obtained from structured discussions of personal and parenting issues faced by the fathers. Findings replicated and extended prior cross-sectional studies with divorced mothers and their confidants. Confidant support predicted better problem solving outcomes, problem solving predicted more effective parenting, and parenting in turn predicted growth in children’s reduced total problem behavior T scores over 18 months. Supporting a homophily perspective, fathers’ antisociality was associated with confidant antisociality but only fathers’ antisociality influenced the support process model. Intervention implications are discussed regarding SIL parent training and social support. PMID:21541814

A confidant support and problem solving model of divorced fathers' parenting.

PubMed

Degarmo, David S; Forgatch, Marion S

2012-03-01

This study tested a hypothesized social interaction learning (SIL) model of confidant support and paternal parenting. The latent growth curve analysis employed 230 recently divorced fathers, of which 177 enrolled support confidants, to test confidant support as a predictor of problem solving outcomes and problem solving outcomes as predictors of change in fathers' parenting. Fathers' parenting was hypothesized to predict growth in child behavior. Observational measures of support behaviors and problem solving outcomes were obtained from structured discussions of personal and parenting issues faced by the fathers. Findings replicated and extended prior cross-sectional studies with divorced mothers and their confidants. Confidant support predicted better problem solving outcomes, problem solving predicted more effective parenting, and parenting in turn predicted growth in children's reduced total problem behavior T scores over 18 months. Supporting a homophily perspective, fathers' antisociality was associated with confidant antisociality but only fathers' antisociality influenced the support process model. Intervention implications are discussed regarding SIL parent training and social support.

Generalized Skyrme model with the loosely bound potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gudnason, Sven Bjarke; Zhang, Baiyang; Ma, Nana

2016-12-01

We study a generalization of the loosely bound Skyrme model which consists of the Skyrme model with a sixth-order derivative term—motivated by its fluidlike properties—and the second-order loosely bound potential—motivated by lowering the classical binding energies of higher-charged Skyrmions. We use the rational map approximation for the Skyrmion of topological charge B =4 , calculate the binding energy of the latter, and estimate the systematic error in using this approximation. In the parameter space that we can explore within the rational map approximation, we find classical binding energies as low as 1.8%, and once taking into account the contribution from spin-isospin quantization, we obtain binding energies as low as 5.3%. We also calculate the contribution from the sixth-order derivative term to the electric charge density and axial coupling.

Cryptography in the Bounded-Quantum-Storage Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaffner, Christian

2007-09-01

This thesis initiates the study of cryptographic protocols in the bounded-quantum-storage model. On the practical side, simple protocols for Rabin Oblivious Transfer, 1-2 Oblivious Transfer and Bit Commitment are presented. No quantum memory is required for honest players, whereas the protocols can only be broken by an adversary controlling a large amount of quantum memory. The protocols are efficient, non-interactive and can be implemented with today's technology. On the theoretical side, new entropic uncertainty relations involving min-entropy are established and used to prove the security of protocols according to new strong security definitions. For instance, in the realistic setting of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) against quantum-memory-bounded eavesdroppers, the uncertainty relation allows to prove the security of QKD protocols while tolerating considerably higher error rates compared to the standard model with unbounded adversaries.

Bounds on isocurvature perturbations from cosmic microwave background and large scale structure data.

PubMed

Crotty, Patrick; García-Bellido, Juan; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riazuelo, Alain

2003-10-24

We obtain very stringent bounds on the possible cold dark matter, baryon, and neutrino isocurvature contributions to the primordial fluctuations in the Universe, using recent cosmic microwave background and large scale structure data. Neglecting the possible effects of spatial curvature, tensor perturbations, and reionization, we perform a Bayesian likelihood analysis with nine free parameters, and find that the amplitude of the isocurvature component cannot be larger than about 31% for the cold dark matter mode, 91% for the baryon mode, 76% for the neutrino density mode, and 60% for the neutrino velocity mode, at 2sigma, for uncorrelated models. For correlated adiabatic and isocurvature components, the fraction could be slightly larger. However, the cross-correlation coefficient is strongly constrained, and maximally correlated/anticorrelated models are disfavored. This puts strong bounds on the curvaton model.

Quantification of HDL Proteins, Cardiac Events, and Mortality in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes on Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Kopecky, Chantal; Genser, Bernd; Drechsler, Christiane; Krane, Vera; Kaltenecker, Christopher C.; Hengstschläger, Markus; März, Winfried; Wanner, Christoph; Säemann, Marcus D.

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Impairment of HDL function has been associated with cardiovascular events in patients with kidney failure. The protein composition of HDLs is altered in these patients, presumably compromising the cardioprotective effects of HDLs. This post hoc study assessed the relation of distinct HDL-bound proteins with cardiovascular outcomes in a dialysis population. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The concentrations of HDL-associated serum amyloid A (SAA) and surfactant protein B (SP-B) were measured in 1152 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus on hemodialysis participating in The German Diabetes Dialysis Study who were randomly assigned to double-blind treatment of 20 mg atorvastatin daily or matching placebo. The association of SAA(HDL) and SP-B(HDL) with cardiovascular outcomes was assessed in multivariate regression models adjusted for known clinical risk factors. Results High concentrations of SAA(HDL) were significantly and positively associated with the risk of cardiac events (hazard ratio per 1 SD higher, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.19). High concentrations of SP-B(HDL) were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 1 SD higher, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19). Adjustment for HDL cholesterol did not affect these associations. Conclusions In patients with diabetes on hemodialysis, SAA(HDL) and SP-B(HDL) were related to cardiac events and all-cause mortality, respectively, and they were independent of HDL cholesterol. These findings indicate that a remodeling of the HDL proteome was associated with a higher risk for cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with ESRD. PMID:25424990

A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of -0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

A new insight on the dynamics of sodium dodecyl sulfate aqueous micellar solutions by dielectric spectroscopy.

PubMed

Lanzi, Leandro; Carlà, Marcello; Lanzi, Leonardo; Gambi, Cecilia M C

2009-02-01

Aqueous sodium dodecyl sulfate micellar solutions were investigated by a recently developed double-differential dielectric spectroscopy technique in the frequency range 100 MHz-3 GHz at 22 degrees C, in the surfactant concentration range 29.8-524 mM, explored for the first time above 104 mM. The micellar contribution to dielectric spectra was analyzed according to three models containing, respectively, a single Debye relaxation, a Cole-Cole relaxation and a double Debye relaxation. The single Debye model is not accurate enough. Both Cole-Cole and double Debye models fit well the experimental dielectric spectra. With the double Debye model, two characteristic relaxation times were identified: the slower one, in the range 400-900 ps, is due to the motion of counterions bound to the micellar surface (lateral motion); the faster one, in the range 100-130 ps, is due to interfacial bound water. Time constants and amplitudes of both processes are in fair agreement with Grosse's theoretical model, except at the largest concentration values, where interactions between micelles increase. For each sample, the volume fraction of bulk water and the effect of bound water as well as the conductivity in the low frequency limit were computed. The bound water increases as the surfactant concentration increases, in quantitative agreement with the micellar properties. The number of water molecules per surfactant molecule was also computed. The conductivity values are in agreement with Kallay's model over the whole surfactant concentration range.

Sodium ferric gluconate (SFG) in complex with sucrose for IV infusion: bioequivalence of a new generic product with the branded product in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Baribeault, David

2011-08-01

Parenteral sodium ferric gluconate in complex (Ferrlecit [branded SFG]) is used to treat patients with iron deficiency anemia undergoing chronic hemodialysis and receiving supplemental epoetin. This comparative pharmacokinetic study (GeneraMedix, Inc., Study 17909) evaluates whether the recently approved generic product Nulecit (generic SFG) and the branded product Ferrlecit (branded SFG) are bioequivalent. In this open-label study, 240 healthy volunteers in a fasting state were assigned randomly to a single 10-min intravenous (IV) infusion of 125 mg of generic or branded SFG. Total and transferrin-bound iron concentrations were determined for the 36-h period after infusion and corrected for pretreatment levels. Maximum concentration (Cmax) and area under the concentration-time curve of 0 to 36 h (AUC[0-36]) were compared between the two products. Demonstration of bioequivalence required that the 90% confidence intervals of each parameter evaluated for generic SFG were within 80% to 125% of the corresponding values for branded SFG. Uncorrected and baseline-corrected mean serum concentrations of total serum iron during the 36-h assessment period were similar for generic and branded SFG. For total serum iron, the geometric mean ratios of corrected Cmax and AUC[0-36] were 100%. For transferrin-bound iron, the geometric mean ratios were 87% for corrected Cmax and 92% for corrected AUC[0-36]. All associated 90% confidence intervals were within the range of 80% to 125%. A new generic SFG in complex for IV infusion is bioequivalent to the branded SFG in complex for IV infusion. The generic SFG is AB rated by the FDA and considered therapeutically equivalent to the branded product.

Effective endovascular treatment of calcified femoropopliteal disease with directional atherectomy and distal embolic protection: final results of the DEFINITIVE Ca⁺⁺ trial.

PubMed

Roberts, David; Niazi, Khusrow; Miller, William; Krishnan, Prakash; Gammon, Roger; Schreiber, Theodore; Shammas, Nicolas W; Clair, Daniel

2014-08-01

The purpose of the DEFINITIVE Ca(++) study was to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of directional atherectomy and distal embolic protection, used together to treat moderate to severely calcified femoropopliteal lesions. Despite advances in endovascular treatment modalities, treatment of calcified lesions remains a challenge. A total of 133 subjects with 168 moderate to severely calcified lesions were enrolled. Lesions were treated with directional atherectomy devices, coupled with distal embolic protection. The 30-day freedom from MAE rate was 93.1%. Per angiographic core laboratory assessment, the primary effectiveness endpoint (≤50% residual diameter stenosis) was achieved in 92.0% (lower confidence bound of 87.6%) of lesions. By core lab analysis, these results did not achieve the success criteria (90%) for the primary effectiveness objective. Per site assessment, the objective was met with the endpoint being achieved in 97.0% (lower confidence bound 93.8%). A mean residual diameter stenosis of 33.3% was achieved with the directional atherectomy device. This was further decreased to 24.1% with the use of adjunctive therapy. The proportion of asymptomatic subjects [Rutherford Clinical Category (RCC) = 0] increased from 0% at baseline to 52.3% at the 30-day follow-up visit. In total, 88.5% of subjects experienced an improvement of one or more Rutherford categories. The results of the DEFINITIVE Ca++ study demonstrate that the SilverHawk and TurboHawk atherectomy devices are safe and effective in the endovascular treatment of moderate to severely calcified lesions in the superficial femoral and/or popliteal arteries when used with the SpiderFX distal embolic protection device. © 2014 The Authors. Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effective Endovascular Treatment of Calcified Femoropopliteal Disease With Directional Atherectomy and Distal Embolic Protection: Final Results of the DEFINITIVE Ca++ Trial

PubMed Central

Roberts, David; Niazi, Khusrow; Miller, William; Krishnan, Prakash; Gammon, Roger; Schreiber, Theodore; Shammas, Nicolas W; Clair, Daniel

2014-01-01

Objectives The purpose of the DEFINITIVE Ca++ study was to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of directional atherectomy and distal embolic protection, used together to treat moderate to severely calcified femoropopliteal lesions. Background Despite advances in endovascular treatment modalities, treatment of calcified lesions remains a challenge. Methods A total of 133 subjects with 168 moderate to severely calcified lesions were enrolled. Lesions were treated with directional atherectomy devices, coupled with distal embolic protection. Results The 30-day freedom from MAE rate was 93.1%. Per angiographic core laboratory assessment, the primary effectiveness endpoint (≤50% residual diameter stenosis) was achieved in 92.0% (lower confidence bound of 87.6%) of lesions. By core lab analysis, these results did not achieve the success criteria (90%) for the primary effectiveness objective. Per site assessment, the objective was met with the endpoint being achieved in 97.0% (lower confidence bound 93.8%). A mean residual diameter stenosis of 33.3% was achieved with the directional atherectomy device. This was further decreased to 24.1% with the use of adjunctive therapy. The proportion of asymptomatic subjects [Rutherford Clinical Category (RCC) = 0] increased from 0% at baseline to 52.3% at the 30-day follow-up visit. In total, 88.5% of subjects experienced an improvement of one or more Rutherford categories. Conclusions The results of the DEFINITIVE Ca++ study demonstrate that the SilverHawk™ and TurboHawk™ atherectomy devices are safe and effective in the endovascular treatment of moderate to severely calcified lesions in the superficial femoral and/or popliteal arteries when used with the SpiderFX™ distal embolic protection device. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:24402764

Three-month validation of a turbuhaler electronic monitoring device: implications for asthma clinical trial use

PubMed Central

Pilcher, Janine; Shirtcliffe, Philippa; Patel, Mitesh; McKinstry, Steve; Cripps, Terrianne; Weatherall, Mark; Beasley, Richard

2015-01-01

Background Electronic monitoring of inhaled asthma therapy is suggested as the ‘gold standard’ for measuring patterns of medication use in clinical trials. The SmartTurbo (Adherium (NZ) Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand) is an electronic monitor for use with a turbuhaler device (AstraZeneca, UK). The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of the SmartTurbo in recording Symbicort actuations over a 12-week period of use. Methods Twenty SmartTurbo monitors were attached to the base of 20 Symbicort turbuhalers. Bench testing in a research facility was undertaken on days 0, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 14, 21, 28, 56 and 84. Patterns of ‘low-use’ (2 sets of 2 actuations on the same day) and ‘high-use’ (2 sets of 8 actuations on the same day) were performed. The date and time of actuations were recorded in a paper diary and compared with data uploaded from the SmartTurbo monitors. Results 2800 actuations were performed. Monitor sensitivity was 99.9% with a lower 97.5% confidence bound of 99.6%. The positive predictive value was 99.9% with a 97.5% lower confidence bound of 99.7%. Accuracy was not affected by whether the pattern of inhaler use was low or high, or whether there was a delay in uploading the actuation data. Conclusions The SmartTurbo monitor is highly accurate in recording and retaining electronic data in this 12-week bench study. It can be recommended for use in clinical trial settings, in which quality control systems are incorporated into study protocols to ensure accurate data acquisition. PMID:26629345

A thorough QT study to evaluate the QTc prolongation potential of two neuropsychiatric drugs, quetiapine and escitalopram, in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Kim, Anhye; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Howard; Chung, Hyewon; Yoon, Seo Hyun; Yu, Kyung-Sang; Cho, Joo-Youn; Jang, In-Jin; Chung, Jae-Yong

2016-07-01

Prolongation of the QT interval on an ECG is a surrogate marker for predicting the proarrhythmic potential of a drug under development. The aim of this study was to evaluate the QTc prolongation potential of two neuropsychiatric drugs, quetiapine immediate release (IR) and escitalopram, in healthy individuals. This was a randomized, open-label, 4×4 Williams crossover study, with four single-dose treatments [placebo, 400 mg moxifloxacin (positive control), 20 mg escitalopram, and 100 mg quetiapine IR], conducted in 40 healthy volunteers. Serial blood samples for pharmacokinetics and ECG were collected. Individually, RR-corrected QTc intervals (QTcI) and placebo-adjusted changes from baseline values of QTcI (ΔΔQTcI) were evaluated. Lower-bound values of the one-sided 95% confidence interval for ΔΔQTcI of moxifloxacin with more than 5 ms confirmed the sensitivity of the assay. The maximum upper bound 95% confidence interval for the ΔΔQTcI of quetiapine IR and escitalopram was 13.7 and 10.5 ms, with mean estimates of 10.2 and 6.9 ms, respectively. Peak effects of moxifloxacin and quetiapine IR on ΔΔQTcI were observed at approximately time to maximum concentration (Tmax), whereas that of escitalopram was observed 3 h after Tmax. The concentration-ΔΔQTcI relationships of quetiapine IR and escitalopram were relatively flat, as compared with that of moxifloxacin. The results demonstrated the validity of trial methodology and that quetiapine IR and escitalopram caused QT prolongation in healthy individuals. In addition, hysteresis of escitalopram-induced QTc prolongation. These results indicate that higher doses of these drugs could lead to greater QT prolongation in a dose-response manner.

Elimination of Onchocerciasis from Mexico

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Pérez, Mario A.; Fernández-Santos, Nadia A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Rodríguez-Atanacio, José A.; Domínguez-Vázquez, Alfredo; Rodríguez-Morales, Kristel B.; Real-Najarro, Olga; Prado-Velasco, Francisco G.; Cupp, Eddie W.; Richards, Frank O.; Hassan, Hassan K.; González-Roldán, Jesús F.; Kuri-Morales, Pablo A.; Unnasch, Thomas R.

2015-01-01

Background Mexico is one of the six countries formerly endemic for onchocerciasis in Latin America. Transmission has been interrupted in the three endemic foci of that country and mass drug distribution has ceased. Three years after mass drug distribution ended, post-treatment surveillance (PTS) surveys were undertaken which employed entomological indicators to check for transmission recrudescence. Methodology/Principal findings In-depth entomologic assessments were performed in 18 communities in the three endemic foci of Mexico. None of the 108,212 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected from the three foci were found to contain parasite DNA when tested by polymerase chain reaction-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (PCR-ELISA), resulting in a maximum upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (95%-ULCI) of the infective rate in the vectors of 0.035/2,000 flies examined. This is an order of magnitude below the threshold of a 95%-ULCI of less than one infective fly per 2,000 flies tested, the current entomological criterion for interruption of transmission developed by the international community. The point estimate of seasonal transmission potential (STP) was zero, and the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the STP ranged from 1.2 to 1.7 L3/person/season in the different foci. This value is below all previous estimates for the minimum transmission potential required to maintain the parasite population. Conclusions/Significance The results from the in-depth entomological post treatment surveillance surveys strongly suggest that transmission has not resumed in the three foci of Mexico during the three years since the last distribution of ivermectin occurred; it was concluded that transmission remains undetectable without intervention, and Onchocerca volvulus has been eliminated from Mexico. PMID:26161558

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, E.H.; Dawson, T.E.; Felzer, K.R.; Frankel, A.D.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Parsons, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Stein, R.S.; Weldon, R.J.; Wills, C.J.

2009-01-01

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5 ??? M ???7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ???6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ???7.5 and to 4.5% for M ???8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ???8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ???6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

Uncertainty estimates in broadband seismometer sensitivities using microseisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringler, Adam T.; Storm, Tyler L.; Gee, Lind S.; Hutt, Charles R.; Wilson, David C.

2015-01-01

The midband sensitivity of a seismic instrument is one of the fundamental parameters used in published station metadata. Any errors in this value can compromise amplitude estimates in otherwise high-quality data. To estimate an upper bound in the uncertainty of the midband sensitivity for modern broadband instruments, we compare daily microseism (4- to 8-s period) amplitude ratios between the vertical components of colocated broadband sensors across the IRIS/USGS (network code IU) seismic network. We find that the mean of the 145,972 daily ratios used between 2002 and 2013 is 0.9895 with a standard deviation of 0.0231. This suggests that the ratio between instruments shows a small bias and considerable scatter. We also find that these ratios follow a standard normal distribution (R 2 = 0.95442), which suggests that the midband sensitivity of an instrument has an error of no greater than ±6 % with a 99 % confidence interval. This gives an upper bound on the precision to which we know the sensitivity of a fielded instrument.

Upper bounds on secret-key agreement over lossy thermal bosonic channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Eneet; Wilde, Mark M.

2017-12-01

Upper bounds on the secret-key-agreement capacity of a quantum channel serve as a way to assess the performance of practical quantum-key-distribution protocols conducted over that channel. In particular, if a protocol employs a quantum repeater, achieving secret-key rates exceeding these upper bounds is evidence of having a working quantum repeater. In this paper, we extend a recent advance [Liuzzo-Scorpo et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 119, 120503 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.120503] in the theory of the teleportation simulation of single-mode phase-insensitive Gaussian channels such that it now applies to the relative entropy of entanglement measure. As a consequence of this extension, we find tighter upper bounds on the nonasymptotic secret-key-agreement capacity of the lossy thermal bosonic channel than were previously known. The lossy thermal bosonic channel serves as a more realistic model of communication than the pure-loss bosonic channel, because it can model the effects of eavesdropper tampering and imperfect detectors. An implication of our result is that the previously known upper bounds on the secret-key-agreement capacity of the thermal channel are too pessimistic for the practical finite-size regime in which the channel is used a finite number of times, and so it should now be somewhat easier to witness a working quantum repeater when using secret-key-agreement capacity upper bounds as a benchmark.

To acquire more detailed radiation drive by use of ``quasi-steady'' approximation in atomic kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Guoli; Pei, Wenbing; Lan, Ke; Gu, Peijun; Li, Xin

2012-10-01

In current routine 2D simulation of hohlraum physics, we adopt the principal-quantum- number(n-level) average atom model(AAM) in NLTE plasma description. However, the detailed experimental frequency-dependant radiative drive differs from our n-level simulated drive, which reminds us the need of a more detailed atomic kinetics description. The orbital-quantum- number(nl-level) average atom model is a natural consideration, however the nl-level in-line calculation needs much more computational resource. By distinguishing the rapid bound-bound atomic processes from the relative slow bound-free atomic processes, we found a method to build up a more detailed bound electron distribution(nl-level even nlm-level) using in-line n-level calculated plasma conditions(temperature, density, and average ionization degree). We name this method ``quasi-steady approximation'' in atomic kinetics. Using this method, we re-build the nl-level bound electron distribution (Pnl), and acquire a new hohlraum radiative drive by post-processing. Comparison with the n-level post-processed hohlraum drive shows that we get an almost identical radiation flux but with more fine frequency-denpending spectrum structure which appears only in nl-level transition with same n number(n=0) .

An improved nonparametric lower bound of species richness via a modified good-turing frequency formula.

PubMed

Chiu, Chun-Huo; Wang, Yi-Ting; Walther, Bruno A; Chao, Anne

2014-09-01

It is difficult to accurately estimate species richness if there are many almost undetectable species in a hyper-diverse community. Practically, an accurate lower bound for species richness is preferable to an inaccurate point estimator. The traditional nonparametric lower bound developed by Chao (1984, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 11, 265-270) for individual-based abundance data uses only the information on the rarest species (the numbers of singletons and doubletons) to estimate the number of undetected species in samples. Applying a modified Good-Turing frequency formula, we derive an approximate formula for the first-order bias of this traditional lower bound. The approximate bias is estimated by using additional information (namely, the numbers of tripletons and quadrupletons). This approximate bias can be corrected, and an improved lower bound is thus obtained. The proposed lower bound is nonparametric in the sense that it is universally valid for any species abundance distribution. A similar type of improved lower bound can be derived for incidence data. We test our proposed lower bounds on simulated data sets generated from various species abundance models. Simulation results show that the proposed lower bounds always reduce bias over the traditional lower bounds and improve accuracy (as measured by mean squared error) when the heterogeneity of species abundances is relatively high. We also apply the proposed new lower bounds to real data for illustration and for comparisons with previously developed estimators. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Optimization in modeling the ribs-bounded contour from computer tomography scan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilinskas, M. J.; Dzemyda, G.

2016-10-01

In this paper a method for analyzing transversal plane images from computer tomography scans is presented. A mathematical model that describes the ribs-bounded contour was created and the problem of approximation is solved by finding out the optimal parameters of the model in the least-squares sense. Such model would be useful in registration of images independently on the patient position on the bed and on the radio-contrast agent injection. We consider the slices, where ribs are visible, because many important internal organs are located here: liver, heart, stomach, pancreas, lung, etc.

Low-energy fusion dynamics of weakly bound nuclei: A time dependent perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz-Torres, A.; Boselli, M.

2016-05-01

Recent dynamical fusion models for weakly bound nuclei at low incident energies, based on a time-dependent perspective, are briefly presented. The main features of both the PLATYPUS model and a new quantum approach are highlighted. In contrast to existing timedependent quantum models, the present quantum approach separates the complete and incomplete fusion from the total fusion. Calculations performed within a toy model for 6Li + 209Bi at near-barrier energies show that converged excitation functions for total, complete and incomplete fusion can be determined with the time-dependent wavepacket dynamics.

Modeling error analysis of stationary linear discrete-time filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, R.; Toda, M.

1977-01-01

The performance of Kalman-type, linear, discrete-time filters in the presence of modeling errors is considered. The discussion is limited to stationary performance, and bounds are obtained for the performance index, the mean-squared error of estimates for suboptimal and optimal (Kalman) filters. The computation of these bounds requires information on only the model matrices and the range of errors for these matrices. Consequently, a design can easily compare the performance of a suboptimal filter with that of the optimal filter, when only the range of errors in the elements of the model matrices is available.

Model reduction of dynamical systems by proper orthogonal decomposition: Error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives [Proper orthogonal decomposition model reduction of dynamical systems: error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives

DOE PAGES

Kostova-Vassilevska, Tanya; Oxberry, Geoffrey M.

2017-09-17

In this study, we consider two proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) methods for dimension reduction of dynamical systems. The first method (M1) uses only time snapshots of the solution, while the second method (M2) augments the snapshot set with time-derivative snapshots. The goal of the paper is to analyze and compare the approximation errors resulting from the two methods by using error bounds. We derive several new bounds of the error from POD model reduction by each of the two methods. The new error bounds involve a multiplicative factor depending on the time steps between the snapshots. For method M1 themore » factor depends on the second power of the time step, while for method 2 the dependence is on the fourth power of the time step, suggesting that method M2 can be more accurate for small between-snapshot intervals. However, three other factors also affect the size of the error bounds. These include (i) the norm of the second (for M1) and fourth derivatives (M2); (ii) the first neglected singular value and (iii) the spectral properties of the projection of the system’s Jacobian in the reduced space. Because of the interplay of these factors neither method is more accurate than the other in all cases. Finally, we present numerical examples demonstrating that when the number of collected snapshots is small and the first neglected singular value has a value of zero, method M2 results in a better approximation.« less

Model reduction of dynamical systems by proper orthogonal decomposition: Error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives [Proper orthogonal decomposition model reduction of dynamical systems: error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova-Vassilevska, Tanya; Oxberry, Geoffrey M.

In this study, we consider two proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) methods for dimension reduction of dynamical systems. The first method (M1) uses only time snapshots of the solution, while the second method (M2) augments the snapshot set with time-derivative snapshots. The goal of the paper is to analyze and compare the approximation errors resulting from the two methods by using error bounds. We derive several new bounds of the error from POD model reduction by each of the two methods. The new error bounds involve a multiplicative factor depending on the time steps between the snapshots. For method M1 themore » factor depends on the second power of the time step, while for method 2 the dependence is on the fourth power of the time step, suggesting that method M2 can be more accurate for small between-snapshot intervals. However, three other factors also affect the size of the error bounds. These include (i) the norm of the second (for M1) and fourth derivatives (M2); (ii) the first neglected singular value and (iii) the spectral properties of the projection of the system’s Jacobian in the reduced space. Because of the interplay of these factors neither method is more accurate than the other in all cases. Finally, we present numerical examples demonstrating that when the number of collected snapshots is small and the first neglected singular value has a value of zero, method M2 results in a better approximation.« less

Prevalence of shigellosis in the U.S.: consistency with dose-response information.

PubMed

Crockett, C S; Haas, C N; Fazil, A; Rose, J B; Gerba, C P

1996-06-01

Every year there are estimated 300000 cases of Shigella in the United States (Bennett et al., 1987, Am. J. Prev. Med. 3, 102-114). A beta-poisson model was fit to human dose-response information on pathogenic Shigella using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Haas, 1983, Am. J. Epidemiol. 118, 573-582). Pooled and separate data sets for the Shigella species were fit to the beta-Poisson model and 95% confidence limits and regions were calculated. Shigella dysentariae and Shigella flexneri confidence regions and limits overlapped with each other and with the pooled data set, suggesting that this model can describe Shigella in general. The pooled Shigella model as well as the upper and lower confidence limits of the three data sets showed average exposures based on the estimated U.S. caseload of pathogenic Shigella of 0.01 to 0.014 organisms (confidence limits 0.001-0.05) for a 7-day per annum period of exposure and ranges from 0.07 to 0.1 organisms (confidence limits 0.006-0.4). for a 1-day per annum period of exposure. The plausibility of the pooled dose-response model was then evaluated by comparison with two known cruise ship outbreaks. The pooled model estimated that the two outbreaks studied could have been due to ingestion of 344 (confidence limits 72-915) Shigella cells per meal and 10.5-12 (confidence limits 1-44) Shigella cells per glass of water by passengers.

The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

PubMed

Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

2013-12-01

The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.

Estimation of Viscoelastic Properties of Cells Using Acoustic Tweezing Cytometry.

PubMed

Yang, Chunmei; Chen, Di; Hong, Xiaowei

2016-12-01

Recently developed acoustic tweezing cytometry uses ultrasound-responsive targeted microbubbles for biomechanical stimulation of live cells at the subcellular level. The purpose of this research was to estimate the viscoelastic characteristics of cells from the displacements of cell-bound microbubbles in response to ultrasound pulses on acoustic tweezing cytometry. Microbubbles were bound to NIH/3T3 fibroblasts and ATDC5 cells through an integrin-cytoskeleton linkage. The evolution of microbubble behaviors under irradiation by ultrasound pulses was captured by a high-speed camera and tracked by a customized algorithm. The total damping constant, stiffness, and rigidity of the cells were estimated by fitting the measured temporal displacement profiles to a Kelvin-Voigt-based model. The mean maximum displacement of the microbubbles attached to NIH/3T3 fibroblasts was much greater than that for ATDC5 cells. The mean fitted damping constant and stiffness ± SD for ATDC5 cells were 28.16 ± 7.08 mg/s and 0.5041 ± 0.1381 mN/m, respectively, and the values for NIH/3T3 fibroblasts were 13.12 ± 4.23 mg/s and 0.2591 ± 0.0715 mN/m. The rigidity for ATDC5 cells was 331.46 ± 106.50 MPa, whereas that for NIH/3T3 fibroblasts was 117.92 ± 34.83 MPa. The Arg-Gly-Asp-integrin-cytoskeleton system of NIH/3T3 fibroblasts appears to be softer than that of ATDC5 cells. The rigidity of ATDC5 cells was significantly greater than that of NIH/3T3 fibroblasts at the 95% confidence level. This strategy provides a novel way to determine the viscoelastic properties of the live cells. © 2016 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.