Downside Risk Optimization of the Thrift Savings Plan Lifecycle Fund Portfolios

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

ETF funds follow indices like the TSP individual funds but are valued by investors due to their “ stock -like” features and low administrative costs...investors worldwide. According to US News and World Report, actively managed stock funds lost nearly 41% on average in 2008 (Mardquardt, 2009...TSP funds: the Government Securities Investment (G) Fund, Fixed Income Index Investment (F) Fund, Common Stock Index Investment (C) Fund, Small

Forum: Learning Outcomes in Communication. Upside Down/Side Up: Problematizing Teacher Communication Behaviors and Learning Outcomes in Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dannels, Deanna P.; Toale, Mary C.; Backlund, Philip M.; Frederick, John G. M.; Love, Brad

2016-01-01

Could teacher communication behaviors generally assumed to be positive ever be detrimental to student realization of particular outcomes? This essay argues for increased scholarly attention to this question. The authors advocate a research agenda that explores the potential "downside" of teacher communication behaviors (TCBs);…

Research on regularized mean-variance portfolio selection strategy with modified Roy safety-first principle.

PubMed

Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yan, Dawen; Yu, Bo; Wei, Xinyuan

2016-01-01

We propose a consolidated risk measure based on variance and the safety-first principle in a mean-risk portfolio optimization framework. The safety-first principle to financial portfolio selection strategy is modified and improved. Our proposed models are subjected to norm regularization to seek near-optimal stable and sparse portfolios. We compare the cumulative wealth of our preferred proposed model to a benchmark, S&P 500 index for the same period. Our proposed portfolio strategies have better out-of-sample performance than the selected alternative portfolio rules in literature and control the downside risk of the portfolio returns.

The Research on the Loan-to-Value of Inventory Pledge Loan Based Upon the Unified Credit Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Yang

This paper focus on loan limit indicator of seasonal inventory financing in supply chain financial innovation based on the logistics features of unified credit mode. According to the "corporate and debt" method in trade credit, this paper analyzes the cash flow properties of borrowing firm and the profit level of logistics enterprise, then it assumes downside-risk-averse logistics enterprise instead of risk-neutral logistics enterprise and takes the method of VaR to figure out the maximum loan-to-value ratio of inventory which is in accord with the risk tolerance level of logistics enterprise in seasonal inventory impawn financing.

Portfolios with fuzzy returns: Selection strategies based on semi-infinite programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vercher, Enriqueta

2008-08-01

This paper provides new models for portfolio selection in which the returns on securities are considered fuzzy numbers rather than random variables. The investor's problem is to find the portfolio that minimizes the risk of achieving a return that is not less than the return of a riskless asset. The corresponding optimal portfolio is derived using semi-infinite programming in a soft framework. The return on each asset and their membership functions are described using historical data. The investment risk is approximated by mean intervals which evaluate the downside risk for a given fuzzy portfolio. This approach is illustrated with a numerical example.

University Leaders Weigh Downside of Huge Increase in Federal Spending

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Basken, Paul

2009-01-01

After a month of celebrating the largest boost in federal spending on scientific research that most of them have ever seen, university presidents are increasingly tuned to the possibility of a downside. The new money--primarily from a $21.5-billion jump in research-and-development spending in the economic-stimulus law--is certainly welcome,…

Developing a Cognitive Model of Expert Performance for Ship Navigation Maneuvers in an Intelligent Tutoring System

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

nature of ship navigation and the requirements for the intelligent tutor presented unique challenges for development. This paper describes how the...the context of improving training. 1. Project Overview The Conning Officer Virtual Environment (COVE) is a ship-handling simulation system used...Corporation, 2009), is used to provide students with ship-handling training without the cost or risk to equipment of at-sea exercises. One downside

Bluffing with a Pair of Deuces: The Downside of Successful Deception

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

was further showcased in the media, and in successive visits by dignitaries from France and Great Britain, who regaled leaders at home with tales of ...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS BLUFFING WITH A PAIR OF DEUCES: THE DOWNSIDE OF SUCCESSFUL DECEPTION by...Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction

Evaluating the fair market value of pay for performance.

PubMed

Johnson, Jen; Higgins, Alexandra

2014-04-01

When assessing a pay-for-performance arrangement, the following factors should be considered: Existence and/or size of minimum savings threshold before savings are allocated. Savings allocation percentage available to physicians. Benchmarks used to measure quality against past performance and/or medical evidence. Ways in which quality outcomes are measured and paid for. Per member per month payments for patient management. Physician investment (participation fee, time, or capital). Existence of downside risk to physicians. Employed compensation structure (if applicable).

Failing by design.

PubMed

McGrath, Rita Gunther

2011-04-01

It's hardly news that business leaders work in increasingly uncertain environments, where failures are bound to be more common than successes. Yet if you ask executives how well, on a scale of one to 10, their organizations learn from failure, you'll often get a sheepish "Two-or maybe three" in response. Such organizations are missing a big opportunity: Failure may be inevitable but, if managed well, can be very useful. A certain amount of failure can help you keep your options open, find out what doesn't work, create the conditions to attract resources and attention, make room for new leaders, and develop intuition and skill. The key to reaping these benefits is to foster "intelligent failure" throughout your organization. McGrath describes several principles that can help you put intelligent failure to work. You should decide what success and failure would look like before you start a project. Document your initial assumptions, test and revise them as you go, and convert them into knowledge. Fail fast-the longer something takes, the less you'll learn-and fail cheaply, to contain your downside risk. Limit the number of uncertainties in new projects, and build a culture that tolerates, and sometimes even celebrates, failure. Finally, codify and share what you learn. These principles won't give you a means of avoiding all failures down the road-that's simply not realistic. They will help you use small losses to attain bigger wins over time.

Long-Run Savings and Investment Strategy Optimization

PubMed Central

Gerrard, Russell; Guillén, Montserrat; Pérez-Marín, Ana M.

2014-01-01

We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor's risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration. PMID:24711728

Long-run savings and investment strategy optimization.

PubMed

Gerrard, Russell; Guillén, Montserrat; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

2014-01-01

We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor's risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration.

Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henney, A.; Keers, G.

1998-10-01

The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysismore » of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk.« less

New Business Models to Accelerate Innovation in Pediatric Oncology Therapeutics: A Review.

PubMed

Das, Sonya; Rousseau, Raphaël; Adamson, Peter C; Lo, Andrew W

2018-06-02

Few patient populations are as helpless and in need of advocacy as children with cancer. Pharmaceutical companies have historically faced significant financial disincentives to pursue pediatric oncology therapeutics, including low incidence, high costs of conducting pediatric trials, and a lack of funding for early-stage research. Review of published studies of pediatric oncology research and the cost of drug development, as well as clinical trials of pediatric oncology therapeutics at ClinicalTrials.gov, identified 77 potential drug development projects to be included in a hypothetical portfolio. The returns of this portfolio were simulated so as to compute the financial returns and risk. Simulated business strategies include combining projects at different clinical phases of development, obtaining partial funding from philanthropic grants, and obtaining government guarantees to reduce risk. The purely private-sector portfolio exhibited expected returns ranging from -24.2% to 10.2%, depending on the model variables assumed. This finding suggests significant financial disincentives for pursuing pediatric oncology therapeutics and implies that financial support from the public and philanthropic sectors is essential. Phase diversification increases the likelihood of a successful drug and yielded expected returns of -5.3% to 50.1%. Standard philanthropic grants had a marginal association with expected returns, and government guarantees had a greater association by reducing downside exposure. An assessment of a proposed venture philanthropy fund demonstrated stronger performance than the purely private-sector-funded portfolio or those with traditional amounts of philanthropic support. A combination of financial and business strategies has the potential to maximize expected return while eliminating some downside risk-in certain cases enabling expected returns as high as 50.1%-that can overcome current financial disincentives and accelerate the development of pediatric oncology therapeutics.

Accountability in the pesticide industry.

PubMed

Riggs, Peter; Waples, Megan

2003-01-01

To counter the lack of corporate accountability of the agrochemical industry for the damage caused by its perpetuation of the use of harmful chemical pesticides, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund staff in June 2002 brought together concerned scientists, lawyers, socially responsible investment professionals, and sustainable agriculture advocates at their Pocantico Conference Center. The group's objective was to communicate to market analysts the long-term downside risks of investments in pesticides, in the hope that dissemination of this information would contribute to increasing corporate accountability and safeguarding public and environmental health. Excerpts from its proceedings are presented.

Upside/Downside statistical mechanics of nonequilibrium Brownian motion. I. Distributions, moments, and correlation functions of a free particle.

PubMed

Craven, Galen T; Nitzan, Abraham

2018-01-28

Statistical properties of Brownian motion that arise by analyzing, separately, trajectories over which the system energy increases (upside) or decreases (downside) with respect to a threshold energy level are derived. This selective analysis is applied to examine transport properties of a nonequilibrium Brownian process that is coupled to multiple thermal sources characterized by different temperatures. Distributions, moments, and correlation functions of a free particle that occur during upside and downside events are investigated for energy activation and energy relaxation processes and also for positive and negative energy fluctuations from the average energy. The presented results are sufficiently general and can be applied without modification to the standard Brownian motion. This article focuses on the mathematical basis of this selective analysis. In subsequent articles in this series, we apply this general formalism to processes in which heat transfer between thermal reservoirs is mediated by activated rate processes that take place in a system bridging them.

Upside/Downside statistical mechanics of nonequilibrium Brownian motion. I. Distributions, moments, and correlation functions of a free particle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craven, Galen T.; Nitzan, Abraham

2018-01-01

Statistical properties of Brownian motion that arise by analyzing, separately, trajectories over which the system energy increases (upside) or decreases (downside) with respect to a threshold energy level are derived. This selective analysis is applied to examine transport properties of a nonequilibrium Brownian process that is coupled to multiple thermal sources characterized by different temperatures. Distributions, moments, and correlation functions of a free particle that occur during upside and downside events are investigated for energy activation and energy relaxation processes and also for positive and negative energy fluctuations from the average energy. The presented results are sufficiently general and can be applied without modification to the standard Brownian motion. This article focuses on the mathematical basis of this selective analysis. In subsequent articles in this series, we apply this general formalism to processes in which heat transfer between thermal reservoirs is mediated by activated rate processes that take place in a system bridging them.

Soil Water Holding Capacity Mitigates Downside Risk and Volatility in US Rainfed Maize: Time to Invest in Soil Organic Matter?

PubMed Central

Williams, Alwyn; Hunter, Mitchell C.; Kammerer, Melanie; Kane, Daniel A.; Jordan, Nicholas R.; Mortensen, David A.; Smith, Richard G.; Snapp, Sieglinde

2016-01-01

Yield stability is fundamental to global food security in the face of climate change, and better strategies are needed for buffering crop yields against increased weather variability. Regional- scale analyses of yield stability can support robust inferences about buffering strategies for widely-grown staple crops, but have not been accomplished. We present a novel analytical approach, synthesizing 2000–2014 data on weather and soil factors to quantify their impact on county-level maize yield stability in four US states that vary widely in these factors (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania). Yield stability is quantified as both ‘downside risk’ (minimum yield potential, MYP) and ‘volatility’ (temporal yield variability). We show that excessive heat and drought decreased mean yields and yield stability, while higher precipitation increased stability. Soil water holding capacity strongly affected yield volatility in all four states, either directly (Minnesota and Pennsylvania) or indirectly, via its effects on MYP (Illinois and Michigan). We infer that factors contributing to soil water holding capacity can help buffer maize yields against variable weather. Given that soil water holding capacity responds (within limits) to agronomic management, our analysis highlights broadly relevant management strategies for buffering crop yields against climate variability, and informs region-specific strategies. PMID:27560666

Disease risk curves.

PubMed

Hughes, G; Burnett, F J; Havis, N D

2013-11-01

Disease risk curves are simple graphical relationships between the probability of need for treatment and evidence related to risk factors. In the context of the present article, our focus is on factors related to the occurrence of disease in crops. Risk is the probability of adverse consequences; specifically in the present context it denotes the chance that disease will reach a threshold level at which crop protection measures can be justified. This article describes disease risk curves that arise when risk is modeled as a function of more than one risk factor, and when risk is modeled as a function of a single factor (specifically the level of disease at an early disease assessment). In both cases, disease risk curves serve as calibration curves that allow the accumulated evidence related to risk to be expressed on a probability scale. When risk is modeled as a function of the level of disease at an early disease assessment, the resulting disease risk curve provides a crop loss assessment model in which the downside is denominated in terms of risk rather than in terms of yield loss.

Optimal design for slip deceleration control in anti-lock braking system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Sheelam; Kumar, Pankaj; Rahman, Mohd. Saifur

2018-05-01

ABS (Anti-lock Braking System) is the most advanced braking system implemented in modern cars to avoid the slipping or skidding of the vehicle on the road. Moreover, it reduces the stopping distance of the vehicle because it avoids the locking of the wheel during braking. It enables the driver to steer the vehicle during braking. But every system has its downsides and likewise ABS too, it is not efficient during normal braking or snowy conditions. Our aim is to overcome these downsides and optimize Anti-lock Braking System to make it even better.

Community perceptions of carbon sequestration: insights from California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Ray, Isha

2009-07-01

Over the last decade, many energy experts have supported carbon sequestration as a viable technological response to climate change. Given the potential importance of sequestration in US energy policy, what might explain the views of communities that may be directly impacted by the siting of this technology? To answer this question, we conducted focus groups in two communities who were potentially pilot project sites for California's DOE-funded West Coast Regional Partnership (WESTCARB). We find that communities want a voice in defining the risks to be mitigated as well as the justice of the procedures by which the technology is implemented. We argue that a community's sense of empowerment is key to understanding its range of carbon sequestration opinions, where 'empowerment' includes the ability to mitigate community-defined risks of the technology. This sense of empowerment protects the community against the downside risk of government or corporate neglect, a risk that is rarely identified in risk assessments but that should be factored into assessment and communication strategies.

Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, S.J.; Hunter, R.B.; Collett, T.S.; Hancock, S.; Boswell, R.; Anderson, B.J.

2011-01-01

A series of gas hydrate development scenarios were created to assess the range of outcomes predicted for the possible development of the "Eileen" gas hydrate accumulation, North Slope, Alaska. Production forecasts for the "reference case" were built using the 2002 Mallik production tests, mechanistic simulation, and geologic studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Three additional scenarios were considered: A "downside-scenario" which fails to identify viable production, an "upside-scenario" describes results that are better than expected. To capture the full range of possible outcomes and balance the downside case, an "extreme upside scenario" assumes each well is exceptionally productive.Starting with a representative type-well simulation forecasts, field development timing is applied and the sum of individual well forecasts creating the field-wide production forecast. This technique is commonly used to schedule large-scale resource plays where drilling schedules are complex and production forecasts must account for many changing parameters. The complementary forecasts of rig count, capital investment, and cash flow can be used in a pre-appraisal assessment of potential commercial viability.Since no significant gas sales are currently possible on the North Slope of Alaska, typical parameters were used to create downside, reference, and upside case forecasts that predict from 0 to 71??BM3 (2.5??tcf) of gas may be produced in 20 years and nearly 283??BM3 (10??tcf) ultimate recovery after 100 years.Outlining a range of possible outcomes enables decision makers to visualize the pace and milestones that will be required to evaluate gas hydrate resource development in the Eileen accumulation. Critical values of peak production rate, time to meaningful production volumes, and investments required to rule out a downside case are provided. Upside cases identify potential if both depressurization and thermal stimulation yield positive results. An "extreme upside" case captures the full potential of unconstrained development with widely spaced wells. The results of this study indicate that recoverable gas hydrate resources may exist in the Eileen accumulation and that it represents a good opportunity for continued research. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

UPPER BOUND RISK ESTIMATES FOR MIXTURES OF CARCINOGENS

EPA Science Inventory

The excess cancer risk that might result from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens usually is estimated with data from experiments conducted on individual chemicals. An upper bound on the total excess risk is estimated commonly by summing individual upper bound risk esti...

Merits and potential downsides of the 2013 ACC/AHA cholesterol management guidelines.

PubMed

Gotto, A M; Moon, J E

2014-06-01

New guidelines from the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association on cholesterol management introduced substantial changes from the previous Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines and generated an immediate storm of controversy upon their release in November 2013. Four categories of individuals that can benefit from statin therapy, including three high-risk groups, have been identified. The fourth category of primary prevention has proven to be the most contentious, with criticism centering on the algorithm used to estimate ten-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and the optimal threshold for statin therapy. Although the risk assessment algorithm can be further refined, it represents an improvement from the previous calculator since it better captures risk in women and African Americans. However, the elimination of lipid targets in the new guidelines discounts a wealth of clinical trial and epidemiological evidence indicating that, with regards to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, "lower is better." Recommendations regarding the use of nonstatin drugs, while appropriate, could potentially be revised in the future. In general, the new guidelines stress the necessity of addressing the multiple factors that contribute to cardiovascular risk, and they provide a valuable opportunity for physicians to address the importance of lifestyle modifications to lower a patient's overall risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Node-Negative Breast Cancer: Which Patients Should Be Treated?

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Marcus

2008-01-01

Summary Adjuvant systemic therapy has led to markedly improved outcome in early-stage breast cancer. However, the absolute gains from chemotherapy might be modest in node-negative patients. Adjuvant chemotherapy is the only option for triple-negative breast cancer patients and should be used with trastuzumab in HER2-positive patients. Considering the large group of patients with some degree of endocrine responsiveness, adding chemotherapy according to risk is an option. At present, we guide our therapeutic decisions using clinicopathologic risk classifications like the St. Gallen risk category or Adjuvant! online. A downside of these risk estimations is a low specificity and consequently the risk for overtreatment of a considerable number of patients. To spare patients unnecessary toxicities we need more reliable prognostic factors or tumor markers. From the plethora of tumor markers, only urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA)/plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) and certain multiparameter gene expression assays are recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology. These tumor markers are presently investigated in clinical trials in node-negative breast cancer (NNBC-3, MINDACT, TAILORx). These studies will hopefully allow us to quantify the risk of progression in the individual patient and to tailor treatment accordingly. This should lead to a more personalized treatment recommendation. PMID:21076603

New Education in New Times.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenway, Jane; And Others

1994-01-01

Discusses new Australian education policies, highlighting emerging educational forms and ways that education, markets, and new technologies are commingling in postmodern world. In commodifying the curriculum, "Captains of Educational Consciousness" and their corporate allies do not acknowledge postmodernity's downside: environmental…

Designing a Community-Based Population Health Model.

PubMed

Durovich, Christopher J; Roberts, Peter W

2018-02-01

The pace of change from volume-based to value-based payment in health care varies dramatically among markets. Regardless of the ultimate disposition of the Affordable Care Act, employers and public-private payers will continue to increase pressure on health care providers to assume financial risk for populations in the form of shared savings, bundled payments, downside risk, or even capitation. This article outlines a suggested road map and practical considerations for health systems that are building or planning to build population health capabilities to meet the needs of their local markets. The authors review the traditional core capabilities needed to address the medical determinants of health for a population. They also share an innovative approach to community service integration to address the social determinants of health and the engagement of families to improve their own health and well-being. The foundational approach is to connect insurance products, the health care delivery system, and community service agencies around the family's well-being goals using human-centered design strategy.

One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, N.

2001-12-01

Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

Lovesick: How Couples’ Relationships Influence Health

PubMed Central

Kiecolt-Glaser, Janice K.; Wilson, Stephanie J.

2017-01-01

This review highlights recent advances in research addressing intimate partner relationships and health. Consideration of the strong mutual influences that the members of a couple have on each other's mental and physical health trajectories provides a new way to view the health implications of couples’ convergence or interdependence; marital closeness can have a clear downside when one partner has mental or physical health problems. Couples’ interconnectedness can also be leveraged to promote better treatment outcomes. Major themes addressed include the pivotal role of depression, as well as the importance of gender differences in the pathways from the marital relationship to physiological functioning and health. The health risks and benefits of support are weighed. Additionally, two prominent emerging paths from marital distress to poor health are emphasized: sleep problems, and metabolic alterations that promote obesity and its comorbidities. PMID:28301763

Relationship between Physicians' Uncertainty about Clinical Assessments and Patient-Centered Recommendations for Colorectal Cancer Screening in the Elderly.

PubMed

Dalton, Alexandra F; Golin, Carol E; Esserman, Denise; Pignone, Michael P; Pathman, Donald E; Lewis, Carmen L

2015-05-01

The goal of this study was to examine associations between physicians' clinical assessments, their certainty in these assessments, and the likelihood of a patient-centered recommendation about colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in the elderly. Two hundred seventy-six primary care physicians in the United States read 3 vignettes about an 80-year-old female patient and answered questions about her life expectancy, their confidence in their life expectancy estimate, the balance of benefits/downsides of CRC screening, their certainty in their benefit/downside assessment, and the best course of action regarding CRC screening. We used logistic regression to determine the relationship between these variables and patient-centered recommendations about CRC screening. In bivariate analyses, physicians had higher odds of making a patient-centered recommendation about CRC screening when their clinical assessments did not lead to a clear screening recommendation or when they experienced uncertainty in their clinical assessments. However, in a multivariate regression model, only benefit/downside assessment and best course of action remained statistically significant predictors of a patient-centered recommendation. Our findings demonstrate that when the results of clinical assessments do not lead to obvious screening decisions or when physicians feel uncertain about their clinical assessments, they are more likely to make patient-centered recommendations. Existing uncertainty frameworks do not adequately describe the uncertainty associated with patient-centered recommendations found in this study. Adapting or modifying these frameworks to better reflect the constructs associated with uncertainty and the interactions between uncertainty and the complexity inherent in clinical decisions will facilitate a more complete understanding of how and when physicians choose to include patients in clinical decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.

An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangli; Cheng, Siwei; Wang, Shouyang; Hong, Yongmiao; Li, Yi

2008-02-01

This study employs a parametric approach based on TGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the VaR of the copper futures market and spot market in China. Considering the short selling mechanism in the futures market, the paper introduces two new notions: upside VaR and extreme upside risk spillover. And downside VaR and upside VaR are examined by using the above approach. Also, we use Kupiec’s [P.H. Kupiec, Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, Journal of Derivatives 3 (1995) 73-84] backtest to test the power of our approaches. In addition, we investigate information spillover effects between the futures market and the spot market by employing a linear Granger causality test, and Granger causality tests in mean, volatility and risk respectively. Moreover, we also investigate the relationship between the futures market and the spot market by using a test based on a kernel function. Empirical results indicate that there exist significant two-way spillovers between the futures market and the spot market, and the spillovers from the futures market to the spot market are much more striking.

Turning things downside up: Adsorbate induced water flipping on Pt(111)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimmel, Gregory A.; Zubkov, Tykhon; Smith, R. Scott

2014-11-14

We have examined the adsorption of the weakly bound species N2, O2, CO and Kr on the water monolayer on Pt(111) using a combination of molecular beam dosing, infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy (IRAS), and temperature programmed desorption (TPD). In contrast to multilayer crystalline ice, the adsorbate-free water monolayer is characterized by a lack of dangling OH bonds protruding into the vacuum (H-up). Instead, the non-hydrogen-bonded OH groups are oriented downward (H-down) to maximize their interaction with the underlying Pt(111) substrate. Adsorption of Kr and O2 have little effect on the structure and vibrational spectrum of the “ ” water monolayermore » while adsorption of both N2, and CO are effective in “flipping” H-down water molecules into an H-up configuration. This “flipping” occurs readily upon adsorption at temperatures as low as 20 K and the water monolayer transforms back to the H-down, “ ” structure upon adsorbate desorption above 35 K, indicating small energy differences and barriers between the H-down and H-up configurations. The results suggest that converting water in the first layer from H-down to H-up is mediated by the electrostatic interactions between the water and the adsorbates.« less

A Menagerie of Tracks at Maryland: HARD, Enterprise, QA, and Genomics, Oh My!

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

mutually agreeable search strategy for acquiring the desired information. Like information need negotiation in a reference interview, clarification...answer key to identify relevant nuggets in system responses. The obvious downside of this approach is that the process requires human intervention

There's a downside to delayed wrapping

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The concept of wrapping moist large-round or large-square bales in plastic to create an anaerobic environment for silage fermentation has gained steadily in popularity, particularly for small and mid-sized dairy or beef producers. Most management principles for baled silages are similar to those of ...

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

A Non-Simulation Based Method for Inducing Pearson’s Correlation Between Input Random Variables

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-23

Systems 500 Auxillary Systems 600 Outfit & Furnishings 700 Weapons 800 Integration & Engineering 900 Ship Assembly & Support Total SWBS Description...Upside Probable Downside 000 Administration 100 Hull 200 Propulsion 300 Electric Plant 400 Electonics Systems 500 Auxillary Systems 600 Outfit

Collaborations between Librarians and Faculty in a Digital Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Melissa

2010-01-01

If Google represents the first flicker of information technology, the development of additional tools has continued to enhance access to information but with the unfortunate downside of decreasing information literacy. Todd Gilman, librarian for literature in English at Yale University's Sterling Memorial Library, decries the resulting disconnect…

Open Access Alternatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenopir, Carol

2004-01-01

Open access publishing is a hot topic today. But open access publishing can have many different definitions, and pros and cons vary with the definitions. Open access publishing is especially attractive to companies and small colleges or universities that are likely to have many more readers than authors. A downside is that a membership fee sounds…

Please Don't Aim for a Highly Cited Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calver, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Citation-based metrics are important in determining careers, so it is unsurprising that recent publications advise prospective authors on how to write highly cited papers. While such publications offer excellent advice on structuring and presenting manuscripts, there are significant downsides, including: restrictions in the topics researched,…

The Downside of Greater Lexical Influences: Selectively Poorer Speech Perception in Noise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Boji P. W.; Xie, Zilong; Tessmer, Rachel; Chandrasekaran, Bharath

2017-01-01

Purpose: Although lexical information influences phoneme perception, the extent to which reliance on lexical information enhances speech processing in challenging listening environments is unclear. We examined the extent to which individual differences in lexical influences on phonemic processing impact speech processing in maskers containing…

Stretched Superintendents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graves, Bill

2011-01-01

A story about superintendents hired to manage two districts finds they exercise good organizational skills--and a lot of hustle--to succeed in this unique role. They don't discount the downsides and do question the money savings involved. Superintendents doing double duty is nothing new, particularly among the hundreds of small districts scattered…

The Frugal Librarian: Thriving in Tough Economic Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smallwood, Carol, Ed.

2011-01-01

Fewer employees, shorter hours, diminished collection budgets, reduced programs and services--all at a time of record library usage. In this book, library expert Carol Smallwood demonstrates that despite the obvious downsides, the necessity of doing business differently can be positive, leading to partnering, sharing, and innovating. This…

Graduation Certification--Too Late to Graduate!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doman, Mark S.

2017-01-01

Oakland University (OU) in Rochester, Michigan, was experiencing growing pains. The good news was that OU had experienced 23 years of continuous enrollment growth, with student enrollment exceeding 20,000 in 2015 for the first time ever. The downside was that various administrative processes throughout the university were straining to keep up. One…

Cyberbullying: An Increasing Challenge for Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Marees, Nandoli; Petermann, Franz

2012-01-01

The use of information and communication technology (ICT) has not only brought advantages to mankind. One downside is the emergence and increase of cyberbullying in schools. Affecting students of all ages, teachers, parents, and other educators, this special form of bullying is an increasing challenge for schools. This article offers an overview…

Digital Downsides: Exploring University Students' Negative Engagements with Digital Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selwyn, Neil

2016-01-01

Digital technologies are now an integral feature of university study. As such, academic research has tended to concentrate on the potential of digital technologies to support, extend and even "enhance" student learning. This paper, in contrast, explores the rather more messy realities of students' engagements with digital technology. In…

Evaluation of advanced cooling therapy's esophageal cooling device for core temperature control.

PubMed

Naiman, Melissa; Shanley, Patrick; Garrett, Frank; Kulstad, Erik

2016-05-01

Managing core temperature is critical to patient outcomes in a wide range of clinical scenarios. Previous devices designed to perform temperature management required a trade-off between invasiveness and temperature modulation efficiency. The Esophageal Cooling Device, made by Advanced Cooling Therapy (Chicago, IL), was developed to optimize warming and cooling efficiency through an easy and low risk procedure that leverages heat transfer through convection and conduction. Clinical data from cardiac arrest, fever, and critical burn patients indicate that the Esophageal Cooling Device performs very well both in terms of temperature modulation (cooling rates of approximately 1.3°C/hour, warming of up to 0.5°C/hour) and maintaining temperature stability (variation around goal temperature ± 0.3°C). Physicians have reported that device performance is comparable to the performance of intravascular temperature management techniques and superior to the performance of surface devices, while avoiding the downsides associated with both.

Local Rademacher Complexity: sharper risk bounds with and without unlabeled samples.

PubMed

Oneto, Luca; Ghio, Alessandro; Ridella, Sandro; Anguita, Davide

2015-05-01

We derive in this paper a new Local Rademacher Complexity risk bound on the generalization ability of a model, which is able to take advantage of the availability of unlabeled samples. Moreover, this new bound improves state-of-the-art results even when no unlabeled samples are available. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Auditory Stream Segregation in Autism Spectrum Disorder: Benefits and Downsides of Superior Perceptual Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouvet, Lucie; Mottron, Laurent; Valdois, Sylviane; Donnadieu, Sophie

2016-01-01

Auditory stream segregation allows us to organize our sound environment, by focusing on specific information and ignoring what is unimportant. One previous study reported difficulty in stream segregation ability in children with Asperger syndrome. In order to investigate this question further, we used an interleaved melody recognition task with…

Caregivers as Money Managers for Adults with Severe Mental Illness: How Treatment Providers Can Help

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elbogen, Eric B.; Wilder, Christine; Swartz, Marvin S.; Swanson, Jeffrey W.

2008-01-01

Objective: To review the prevalence, benefits, and problems associated with families who, either informally or formally as representative payees, manage money for adults with severe mental illness. Methods: Based on empirical research and clinical cases, suggestions are offered for minimizing downsides and capitalizing upon benefits of family…

Managing Institutional Research Advancement: Implications from a University Faculty Time Allocation Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Derrick M.; Slade, Catherine P.

2016-01-01

While much is known about faculty time allocation, we know very little about how traditional managerial factors influence faculty time allocation behaviors. We know even less about the possible downsides associated with relying on these traditional managerial factors. Using survey data from the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy…

Planning during turmoil: credit challenges and healthcare finance. Interview by Carole J. Bolster.

PubMed

Bigalke, John T; Goldstein, Lisa; Gourdon, Claudia; Jacobson, Catherine A; Kaufman, Kenneth; Long, Ronald R

2008-11-01

The crisis in the financial markets is having a major impact on hospitals' ability to access capital. Providers are seeking longer-term fixed-rate debt rather than shortterm debt. Hospital management teams and their boards need to understand the upside and downside of variable-rate debt and interest rate derivatives.

A Note on Educational Management and the Third Revolution Lithium Regimen: A Reassessment and Commentary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snell, Joel C.; Green, Donald W.

1989-01-01

Describes downside of the Third Revolution biological psychiatry. Presents case study in which misapplication of one medication, lithium, jeopardized the professionalism of a college faculty member. Discusses administrative strategies used to resolve the problem and suggests an alternative strategy. Concludes that psychiatric treatment can be…

Downside Seen in Rush to Hire School-Based Police

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shah, Nirvi

2013-01-01

With nightmare visions of a gunman stalking school halls, districts often rush to hire police officers to patrol their campuses after news of a school shooting. Critics of that impulsive response, which has been in high gear nationwide since the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings in December, acknowledge the concern for student and staff…

Is There a Downside to Shooting for the Stars? Unrealized Educational Expectations and Symptoms of Depression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, John R.; Baird, Chardie L.

2010-01-01

Despite decades of research on the benefits of educational expectations, researchers have failed to show that unrealized plans are consequential for mental health, as self-discrepancy and other social psychological theories would predict. This article uses two national longitudinal studies of youth to test whether unrealized educational…

Unintended Consequences: Potential Downsides of the Air Force’s Conversion to Biofuels

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

Mark N. Goltz , PhD, USAF, Retired Dr. Charles A. Bleckmann Dr. Douglas M. Mackay Maj Khai Vuong, USAF Capt Jerrod P. McComb, USAF* *Lieutenant...Colonel Goltz and Dr. Bleckmann are faculty members in the environmental engineering and science program at the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT

The Downside of Marketization: A Multilevel Analysis of Housing Tenure and Types in Reform-era Urban China

PubMed Central

Fu, Qiang; Zhu, Yushu; Ren, Qiang

2015-01-01

Based on data from the 2005 National Population Sample Survey and compiled covariates of 205 prefectures, this research adopted principal-component and multilevel-logistic analyses to study homeownership in urban China. Although the housing reform has severed the link between work units and residence, working in state sectors (government, state-owned enterprises and collective firms) remained significant in determining a household’s entitlement to reform-era housing with heavy subsidies or better qualities. While the prefecture-level index of marketization reduced local homeownership of self-built housing, affordable housing and privatized housing, its effect is moderated by cross-level interactions with income, education and working in state sectors across different types of housing. Meanwhile, the index of political and market connections promoted all types of homeownership except for self-built housing. By situating the downside of marketization within a context of urban transformation, this research not only challenges the teleological premise of the neoliberal market transition theory but calls for research on institutional dynamics and social consequences of urban transformation in China. PMID:25432608

The downside of marketization: a multilevel analysis of housing tenure and types in reform-era urban China.

PubMed

Fu, Qiang; Zhu, Yushu; Ren, Qiang

2015-01-01

Based on data from the 2005 National Population Sample Survey and compiled covariates of 205 prefectures, this research adopted principal-component and multilevel-logistic analyses to study homeownership in urban China. Although the housing reform has severed the link between work units and residence, working in state sectors (government, state-owned enterprises and collective firms) remained significant in determining a household's entitlement to reform-era housing with heavy subsidies or better qualities. While the prefecture-level index of marketization reduced local homeownership of self-built housing, affordable housing and privatized housing, its effect is moderated by cross-level interactions with income, education and working in state sectors across different types of housing. Meanwhile, the index of political and market connections promoted all types of homeownership except for self-built housing. By situating the downside of marketization within a context of urban transformation, this research not only challenges the teleological premise of the neoliberal market transition theory but calls for research on institutional dynamics and social consequences of urban transformation in China. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Countering the biggest risk of all.

PubMed

Slywotzky, Adrian J; Drzik, John

2005-04-01

Corporate treasurers and chief financial officers have become adept at quantifying and managing a wide variety of risks: financial (for example, currency fluctuations), hazard (chemical spills), and operational (computer system failures). To defend themselves, they use tried-and-true tools such as hedging, insurance, and backup systems. Some companies have even adopted the concept of enterprise risk management, integrating available risk management techniques in a comprehensive, organization-wide approach. But most managers have not addressed in a systematic way the greatest threat of all--strategic risks, the array of external events and trends that can devastate a company's growth trajectory and shareholder value. Strategic risks go beyond such familiar challenges as the possible failure of an acquisition or a product launch. A new technology may overtake your product. Gradual shifts in the market may slowly erode one of your brands beyond the point of viability. Or rapidly shifting customer priorities may suddenly change your industry. The key to surviving these strategic risks, the authors say, is knowing how to assess and respond to them. In this article, they lay out a method for identifying and responding to strategic threats. They categorize the risks into seven major classes (industry, technology, brand, competitor, customer, project, and stagnation) and describe a particularly dangerous example within each category. The authors also offer countermeasures to take against these risks and describe how individual companies (American Express, Coach, and Air Liquide, among them) have deployed them to neutralize a threat and, in many cases, capitalize on it. Besides limiting the downside of risk, strategic-risk management forces executives to think more systematically about the future, thus helping them identify opportunities for growth.

Risks deter but pleasures allure: Is pleasure more important?

PubMed

Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Leite, Rui; Peltzer, Karl; Ramlagan, Shandir

2015-05-01

The pursuit of unhealthy behaviors, such as smoking or binge drinking, not only carries various downside risks, but also provides pleasure. A parsimonious model, used in the literature to explain the decision to pursue an unhealthy activity, represents that decision as a tradeoff between risks and benefits. We build on this literature by surveying a rural population in South Africa to elicit the perceived riskiness and the perceived pleasure for various risky activities and to examine how these perceptions relate to the pursuit of four specific unhealthy behaviors: frequent smoking, problem drinking, seatbelt nonuse, and risky sex. We show that perceived pleasure is a significant predictor for three of the behaviors and that perceived riskiness is a significant predictor for two of them. We also show that the correlation between the riskiness rating and behavior is significantly different from the correlation between the pleasure rating and behavior for three of the four behaviors. Finally, we show that the effect of pleasure is significantly greater than the effect of riskiness in determining drinking and risky sex, while the effects of pleasure and riskiness are not different from each other in determining smoking and seatbelt nonuse. We discuss how our findings can be used to inform the design of health promotion strategies.

Turning things downside up: Adsorbate induced water flipping on Pt(111)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimmel, Greg A., E-mail: gregory.kimmel@pnnl.gov, E-mail: bruce.kay@pnnl.gov; Zubkov, Tykhon; Smith, R. Scott

2014-11-14

We have examined the adsorption of the weakly bound species N{sub 2}, O{sub 2}, CO, and Kr on the (√(37)×√(37))R25.3{sup ∘} water monolayer on Pt(111) using a combination of molecular beam dosing, infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy, and temperature programmed desorption. In contrast to multilayer crystalline ice, the adsorbate-free water monolayer is characterized by a lack of dangling OH bonds protruding into the vacuum (H-up). Instead, the non-hydrogen-bonded OH groups are oriented downward (H-down) to maximize their interaction with the underlying Pt(111) substrate. Adsorption of Kr and O{sub 2} have little effect on the structure and vibrational spectrum of the “√(37)”more » water monolayer while adsorption of both N{sub 2}, and CO are effective in “flipping” H-down water molecules into an H-up configuration. This “flipping” occurs readily upon adsorption at temperatures as low as 20 K and the water monolayer transforms back to the H-down, “√(37)” structure upon adsorbate desorption above 35 K, indicating small energy differences and barriers between the H-down and H-up configurations. The results suggest that converting water in the first layer from H-down to H-up is mediated by the electrostatic interactions between the water and the adsorbates.« less

Climbing the e-waste mountain.

PubMed

2005-10-01

The benefits of the information revolution are clear for all to see. Devices such as PCs, faxes, mobile phones, music players and a host of others open up exciting possibilities for individuals and businesses alike. Yet there is a downside to this digital era: the growing mountain of electronic waste. How we tackle this dilemma will have major implications for sustainability.

Here's the Lineup for the "Dream Team"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broderick, John R.

2008-01-01

One of the nicest things about being on a search committee is getting to meet people from all over the campus, some of whom one had little or no contact with before. The downside of any search, though, despite some meals in classy restaurants, is the extra meetings, endless phone calls, numerous Equal Employment Opportunity and human-resources…

Securing the Downside Up: Client and Care Factors Associated with Outcomes of Secure Residential Youth Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harder, Annemiek T.; Knorth, Erik J.; Kalverboer, Margrite E.

2012-01-01

Background: Although secure residential care has the potential of reducing young people's behavioral problems, it is often difficult to achieve positive outcomes. Research suggests that there are several common success factors of treatment, of which the client's motivation for treatment and the quality of the therapeutic relationship between…

Managing calcium oxalate scale in the bleach plant

Treesearch

Alan Rudie; Peter Hart

2005-01-01

To comply with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's "Cluster Rule," most U.S. mills have switched from the use of chlorine to chlorine dioxide as the oxidant in the first stage of bleaching. This process change has a downside. it increases the formation of mineral scale in bleach plants. Typically, calcium oxalate forms in the chlorine dioxide...

Is There a Downside to Schedule Control for the Work-Family Interface?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schieman, Scott; Young, Marisa

2010-01-01

Using data from a 2007 U.S. survey of workers, this article examines the implications of schedule control for work-family role blurring and work-family conflict. Four main findings indicate that (a) schedule control is associated with more frequent working at home and work-family multitasking activities; (b) the positive association between…

An OSKit-Based Implementation of Least Privilege Separation Kernel Memory Partitioning

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Fiasco is developed at TU Dresden. It is compatible with the x86 L4 microkernel . It is a real-time preemptive kernel written in C++. Fiasco’s...adherence to the specification of the L4 microkernel makes it a desirable choice. The downside is Fiasco is too specialized for what is needed by the

Encryption and the Loss of Patient Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Amalia R.; Tucker, Catherine E.

2011-01-01

Fast-paced IT advances have made it increasingly possible and useful for firms to collect data on their customers on an unprecedented scale. One downside of this is that firms can experience negative publicity and financial damage if their data are breached. This is particularly the case in the medical sector, where we find empirical evidence that…

VC-dimension of univariate decision trees.

PubMed

Yildiz, Olcay Taner

2015-02-01

In this paper, we give and prove the lower bounds of the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC)-dimension of the univariate decision tree hypothesis class. The VC-dimension of the univariate decision tree depends on the VC-dimension values of its subtrees and the number of inputs. Via a search algorithm that calculates the VC-dimension of univariate decision trees exhaustively, we show that our VC-dimension bounds are tight for simple trees. To verify that the VC-dimension bounds are useful, we also use them to get VC-generalization bounds for complexity control using structural risk minimization in decision trees, i.e., pruning. Our simulation results show that structural risk minimization pruning using the VC-dimension bounds finds trees that are more accurate as those pruned using cross validation.

The "Downside" of Women Empowerment in India: An Experimental Inquiry into the Role of Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Kempen, Luuk

2009-01-01

The paper reports on a field experiment conducted among poor women organized in self-help groups in the north-east of India. The experiment tests in a simple game whether overly optimistic expectations with respect to the benefits of exercising agency reduces one's appreciation of remaining with agency in the future. If so, unrealistic…

CTE and the Economy--Finding the Upside in the Downside

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reese, Susan

2009-01-01

The economic news has been dire--from growing unemployment numbers to the slashing of state and local budgets. Schools have been forced to look at cost cutting measures--from larger classes to the elimination of some programs. Yet, amid all the bad news, there is some good news to be found for career and technical education (CTE)--and some…

Exploring the Downside of Open Knowledge Resources: The Case of Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Practices in the Philippines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flor, Alexander Gonzalez

2013-01-01

The paper is based on the challenges encountered by the researcher while conducting a study titled "Design, Development and Testing of an Indigenous Knowledge Management System Using Mobile Device Video Capture and Web 2.0 Protocols." During the conduct of the study the researcher observed a marked reluctance from organized indigenous…

The Downside of Early Decision: Choosing Early Doesn't Always Mean Choosing Right

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bacow, Lawrence S.

2006-01-01

The increasingly popular option of applying "early decision" (ED) requires a student to make a binding commitment that, if admitted to a particular college, she or he will enroll. Now offered by 184 U.S. colleges and universities, ED is a highly effective--and therefore highly seductive--tool for managing enrollment. This author argues,…

Some Thoughts on Rethinking the Pre-Service Education of School Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Joseph

2006-01-01

In this article, the author discusses two major conclusions about initial preparation programs in the United States. On the upside, a good deal of energy and hard work is being poured into attempts to revitalize preparation programs. On the downside, people are not seeing much in the way of real improvement; that is, most of the change is on the…

Mining on Big Data Using Hadoop MapReduce Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman Ahmed, G.; Bhattacharya, Sweta

2017-11-01

Customary parallel calculations for mining nonstop item create opportunity to adjust stack of similar data among hubs. The paper aims to review this process by analyzing the critical execution downside of the common parallel recurrent item-set mining calculations. Given a larger than average dataset, data apportioning strategies inside the current arrangements endure high correspondence and mining overhead evoked by repetitive exchanges transmitted among registering hubs. We tend to address this downside by building up a learning apportioning approach referred as Hadoop abuse using the map-reduce programming model. All objectives of Hadoop are to zest up the execution of parallel recurrent item-set mining on Hadoop bunches. Fusing the comparability metric and furthermore the locality-sensitive hashing procedure, Hadoop puts to a great degree comparative exchanges into an information segment to lift neighborhood while not making AN exorbitant assortment of excess exchanges. We tend to execute Hadoop on a 34-hub Hadoop bunch, driven by a decent change of datasets made by IBM quest market-basket manufactured data generator. Trial uncovers the fact that Hadoop contributes towards lessening system and processing masses by the uprightness of dispensing with excess exchanges on Hadoop hubs. Hadoop impressively outperforms and enhances the other models considerably.

Downsides and benefits of unicellularity in budding yeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balazsi, Gabor; Chen, Lin; Kuzdzal-Fick, Jennie

Yeast cells that do not separate after cell division form clumps. Clumping was shown to aid utilization of certain sugars, but its effects in stressful conditions are unknown. Generally speaking, what are the costs and benefits of unicellularity versus clumping multicellularity in normal and stressful conditions? To address this question, we evolved clumping yeast towards unicellularity by continuously propagating only those cells that remain suspended in liquid culture after settling. Whole-genome sequencing indicated that mutations in the AMN1 (antagonist of mitotic exit network) gene underlie the changes from clumping to unicellular phenotypes in these evolved yeast cells. Simple models predict that clumping should hinder growth in normal conditions while being protective in stress. Accordingly, we find experimentally that yeast clumps are more resistant to freeze/thaw, hydrogen peroxide, and ethanol stressors than their unicellular counterparts. On the other hand, unicellularity seems to be advantageous in normal conditions. Overall, these results reveal the downsides and benefits of unicellularity in different environmental conditions and uncover its genetic bases in yeast. This research was supported by the NIH Director's New Innovator Award Program (1DP2 OD006481-01), by NSF/IOS 1021675 and the Laufer Center for Physical & Quantitative Biology.

Dependence in probabilistic modeling Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferson, Scott; Nelsen, Roger B.; Hajagos, Janos

2015-05-01

This report summarizes methods to incorporate information (or lack of information) about inter-variable dependence into risk assessments that use Dempster-Shafer theory or probability bounds analysis to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. The report reviews techniques for simulating correlated variates for a given correlation measure and dependence model, computation of bounds on distribution functions under a specified dependence model, formulation of parametric and empirical dependence models, and bounding approaches that can be used when information about the intervariable dependence is incomplete. The report also reviews several of the most pervasive and dangerous myths among risk analysts about dependence in probabilistic models.

Mobile Learning in Medical Education: Review.

PubMed

Walsh, Kieran

2015-10-01

In the past several years, mobile learning made rapid inroads into the provision of medical education. There are significant advantages associated with mobile learning. These include high access, low cost, more situated and contextual learning, convenience for the learner, continuous communication and interaction between learner and tutor and between learner and other learners, and the ability to self-assess themselves while learning. Like any other form of medical pedagogy, mobile learning has its downsides. Disadvantages of mobile learning include: inadequate technology, a risk of distraction from learning by using a device that can be used for multiple purposes, and the potential for breakdown in barriers between personal usage of the mobile device and professional or educational use. Despite these caveats, there is no question but that mobile learning offers much potential. In the future, it is likely that the strategy of mobile first, whereby providers of e-learning think of the user experience on a mobile first, will result in learners who increasingly expect that all e-learning provision will work seamlessly on a mobile device.

Energy, environment and sustainable development - tough decisions for a democracy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rossin, A.D.

1994-12-31

Electricity is recognized to be essential to attaining even minimum modem levels of human welfare in any country. However, where electricity is available, the public shows little concern about where it comes from or what it takes to make sure supply continues to be adequate. In the next century, the world will have to face the difficult decision about the long-term use of plutonium as fuel, and deal with its implications for nonproliferation. What the United States does on this issue will affect all nations, and particularly those around the Pacific Basin. How do responsible leaders set rational priorities inmore » a democracy, when every issue has its vocal advocates and the news media can reach every household? If democracies are to avoid the downside risks of energy shortages, leadership will have to emerge that has the courage to tell the people the truth. That means providing scientific facts and explanations in terms that people can understand.« less

Evidence-based blood pressure reducing actions of electroacupuncture: mechanisms and clinical application.

PubMed

Longhurst, John C; Tjen-A-Looi, Stephanie C

2017-10-25

Hypertension is a serious world-wide health problem as it increases cardiovascular atherosclerotic risk, stroke and attending morbidity and mortality. Both systolic and diastolic blood pressures and particularly systolic pressure increase with aging. The downsides from pharmacological therapy have led to consideration of additional treatments, including acupuncture, which evokes endogenous neural-hormonal systems to lower blood pressure. Using basic science studies to guide clinical approaches to research, it is apparent that low frequency, low intensity electroacupuncture reduces sympathetic outflow in approximately 70% of patients with mild to moderate hypertension who are off antihypertensive drugs. Systolic and, to a lesser extent, diastolic arterial blood pressures can be lowered over two to four weeks for prolonged periods, lasting as long as one month, after cessation of an eight weeks of once weekly stimulation. Many questions about long-term therapy, treatment of resistant patients and efficacy in patients on medication remain to be studied. Current data, however, suggest that there may be a role of acupuncture in treatment of hypertension.

Encryption and the loss of patient data.

PubMed

Miller, Amalia R; Tucker, Catherine E

2011-01-01

Fast-paced IT advances have made it increasingly possible and useful for firms to collect data on their customers on an unprecedented scale. One downside of this is that firms can experience negative publicity and financial damage if their data are breached. This is particularly the case in the medical sector, where we find empirical evidence that increased digitization of patient data is associated with more data breaches. The encryption of customer data is often presented as a potential solution, because encryption acts as a disincentive for potential malicious hackers, and can minimize the risk of breached data being put to malicious use. However, encryption both requires careful data management policies to be successful and does not ward off the insider threat. Indeed, we find no empirical evidence of a decrease in publicized instances of data loss associated with the use of encryption. Instead, there are actually increases in the cases of publicized data loss due to internal fraud or loss of computer equipment.

Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

2017-01-01

Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

Phytoavailability and mechanism of bound PAH residues in filed contaminated soils.

PubMed

Gao, Yanzheng; Hu, Xiaojie; Zhou, Ziyuan; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Yize; Sun, Bingqing

2017-03-01

Understanding the phytoavailability of bound residues of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils is essential to assessing their environmental fate and risks. This study investigated the release and plant uptake of bound PAH residues (reference to parent compounds) in field contaminated soils after the removal of extractable PAH fractions. Plant pot experiments were performed in a greenhouse using ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) to examine the phytoavailablility of bound PAH residues, and microcosm incubation experiments with and without the addition of artificial root exudates (AREs) or oxalic acid were conducted to examine the effect of root exudates on the release of bound PAH residues. PAH accumulation in the ryegrass after a 50-day growth period indicated that bound PAH residues were significantly phytoavailable. The extractable fractions, including the desorbing and non-desorbing fractions, dominated the total PAH concentrations in vegetated soils after 50 days, indicating the transfer of bound PAH residues to the extractable fractions. This transfer was facilitated by root exudates. The addition of AREs and oxalic acid to test soils enhanced the release of bound PAH residues into their extractable fractions, resulting in enhanced phytoavailability of bound PAH residues in soils. This study provided important information regarding environmental fate and risks of bound PAH residues in soils. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Review of the Current Evidence regarding Industrial Wind Turbines and Property Values from a Homeowner's Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gulden, Wayne E.

2011-01-01

As more wind energy projects are constructed and placed into operation, their potential downsides are becoming more apparent to a larger number of people. One of the most contentious issues is that of the potential loss of property values for those who happen to own homes close to these projects. This issue may be more parochial and therefore…

Air quality and electricity: What competition may mean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burtraw, D.; Krupnick, A.J.; Palmer, K.L.

1996-12-31

Although the likely breakup of the US electricity industry is heralded as an economic boon to business and consumers alike, the downside to more competition is debatable, especially since the uncertainties involved are many. Whether the air we breathe improves or worsens will depend on choices consumers, producers, and policymakers have yet to make. Economic analysis of alternative regulatory options offers insights into what could happen.

Growing Pains in the Advanced Placement Program: Do Tough Trade-offs Lie Ahead?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duffett, Ann; Farkas, Steve

2009-01-01

In 2002-2003, 1 million students participated in AP by taking at least one exam. Five years later, nearly 1.6 million did--a 50+ percent increase. But is growth all good? Might there be a downside? Are ill prepared students eroding the quality of the program? Perhaps harming the best and brightest? To find out, the Thomas B. Fordham Institute…

The costs and effectiveness of large Phase III pre-licensure vaccine clinical trials.

PubMed

Black, Steven

2015-01-01

Prior to the 1980s, most vaccines were licensed based upon safety and effectiveness studies in several hundred individuals. Beginning with the evaluation of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccines, much larger pre-licensure trials became common. The pre-licensure trial for Haemophilus influenzae oligosaccharide conjugate vaccine had more than 60,000 children and that of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine included almost 38,000 children. Although trial sizes for both of these studies were driven by the sample size required to demonstrate efficacy, the sample size requirements for safety evaluations of other vaccines have subsequently increased. With the demonstration of an increased risk of intussusception following the Rotashield brand rotavirus vaccine, this trend has continued. However, routinely requiring safety studies of 20,000-50,000 or more participants has two major downsides. First, the cost of performing large safety trials routinely prior to licensure of a vaccine is very large, with some estimates as high at US$200 million euros for one vaccine. This high financial cost engenders an opportunity cost whereby the number of vaccines that a company is willing or able to develop to meet public health needs becomes limited by this financial barrier. The second downside is that in the pre-licensure setting, such studies are very time consuming and delay the availability of a beneficial vaccine substantially. One might argue that in some situations, this financial commitment is warranted such as for evaluations of the risk of intussusception following newer rotavirus vaccines. However, it must be noted that while an increased risk of intussusception was not identified in large pre-licensure studies, in post marketing evaluations an increased risk of this outcome has been identified. Thus, even the extensive pre-licensure evaluations conducted did not identify an associated risk. The limitations of large Phase III trials have also been demonstrated in efficacy trials. Notably, pre-licensure trials of pneumococcal conjugate severely underestimated their true effect and cost-effectiveness. In fact, in discussions prior to vaccine introduction in the USA for PCV7, the vaccine was said to be not cost-effective and some counseled against its introduction. In reality, following introduction, PCV7 has been shown to be highly cost-effective. In the last decade, new methods have been identified using large linked databases such as the Vaccine Safety Datalink in the USA that allow identification of an increased risk of an event within a few months of vaccine introduction and that can screen for unanticipated very rare events as well. In addition, the availability of electronic medical records and hospital discharge data in many settings allows for accurate assessment of vaccine effectiveness. Given the high financial and opportunity cost of requiring large pre-licensure safety studies, consideration could be given to 'conditional licensure' of vaccines whose delivery system is well characterized in a setting where sophisticated pharmacovigilance systems exist on the condition that such licensure would incorporate a requirement for rapid cycle and other real-time evaluations of safety and effectiveness following introduction. This would actually allow for a more complete and timely evaluation of vaccines, lower the financial barrier to development of new vaccines and thus allow a broader portfolio of vaccines to be developed and successfully introduced.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oberkampf, William Louis; Tucker, W. Troy; Zhang, Jianzhong

This report summarizes methods to incorporate information (or lack of information) about inter-variable dependence into risk assessments that use Dempster-Shafer theory or probability bounds analysis to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. The report reviews techniques for simulating correlated variates for a given correlation measure and dependence model, computation of bounds on distribution functions under a specified dependence model, formulation of parametric and empirical dependence models, and bounding approaches that can be used when information about the intervariable dependence is incomplete. The report also reviews several of the most pervasive and dangerous myths among risk analysts about dependence in probabilistic models.

Improving value assessment of high-risk, high-reward biotechnology research: the role of 'thick tails'.

PubMed

Casault, Sébastien; Groen, Aard J; Linton, Jonathan D

2014-03-25

This paper presents work toward improving the efficacy of financial models that describe the unique nature of biotechnology firms. We show that using a 'thick tailed' power law distribution to describe the behavior of the value of biotechnology R&D used in a Real Options Pricing model is significantly more accurate than the traditionally used Gaussian approach. A study of 287 North-American biotechnology firms gives insights into common problems faced by investors, managers and other stakeholders when using traditional techniques to calculate the commercial value of R&D. This is important because specific quantitative tools to assess the value of high-risk, high-reward R&D do not currently exist. This often leads to an undervaluation of biotechnology R&D and R&D intensive biotechnology firms. For example, the widely used Net Present Value (NPV) method assumes a fixed risk ignoring management flexibility and the changing environment. However, Real Options Pricing models assume that commercial returns from R&D investments are described by a normal random walk. A normal random walk model eliminates the possibility of drastic changes to the marketplace resulting from the introduction of revolutionary products and/or services. It is possible to better understand and manage biotechnology research projects and portfolios using a model that more accurately considers large non-Gaussian price fluctuations with thick tails, which recognize the unusually large risks and opportunities associated with Biotechnology R&D. Our empirical data show that opportunity overcompensates for the downside risk making biotechnology R&D statistically more valuable than other Gaussian options investments, which may otherwise appear to offer a similar combination of risk and return. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bounding Analysis of Drinking Water Health Risks from a Spill of Hydraulic Fracturing Flowback Water.

PubMed

Rish, William R; Pfau, Edward J

2018-04-01

A bounding risk assessment is presented that evaluates possible human health risk from a hypothetical scenario involving a 10,000-gallon release of flowback water from horizontal fracturing of Marcellus Shale. The water is assumed to be spilled on the ground, infiltrates into groundwater that is a source of drinking water, and an adult and child located downgradient drink the groundwater. Key uncertainties in estimating risk are given explicit quantitative treatment using Monte Carlo analysis. Chemicals that contribute significantly to estimated health risks are identified, as are key uncertainties and variables to which risk estimates are sensitive. The results show that hypothetical exposure via drinking water impacted by chemicals in Marcellus Shale flowback water, assumed to be spilled onto the ground surface, results in predicted bounds between 10 -10 and 10 -6 (for both adult and child receptors) for excess lifetime cancer risk. Cumulative hazard indices (HI CUMULATIVE ) resulting from these hypothetical exposures have predicted bounds (5th to 95th percentile) between 0.02 and 35 for assumed adult receptors and 0.1 and 146 for assumed child receptors. Predicted health risks are dominated by noncancer endpoints related to ingestion of barium and lithium in impacted groundwater. Hazard indices above unity are largely related to exposure to lithium. Salinity taste thresholds are likely to be exceeded before drinking water exposures result in adverse health effects. The findings provide focus for policy discussions concerning flowback water risk management. They also indicate ways to improve the ability to estimate health risks from drinking water impacted by a flowback water spill (i.e., reducing uncertainty). © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, J.S.; Chen, J.J.

1999-12-01

The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on anmore » underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. IN this paper the authors evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some of all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.« less

Curvature Analysis of Cardiac Excitation Wavefronts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

required at this level either. To enable this kind of analysis, a type field is added to the polyline data structure, too. The downside of reusing the...GPU-based parallel methods. The wave curvature and the refractory period of the cardiac cells influence the motion of cardiac waves. The role of...propagation speed, the action potential duration, and the refractory period is studied. In the recent work of [26], multiple spirals and their

The Dreadnought Paradox: An Argument for an Expanded Submarine-Based Conventional Deterrent to Counter A2/AD in the Pacific Theater

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-17

access to the region.43 In response, it is hard to think of a downside to deploying a capability that counters China’s A2/AD center of gravity. Forcing... agreeable would be disastrous to America’s alliances. (Cheng Li and Lucy Xu, “Chinese Enthusiasm and American Cynicism Over the “New Type of Great Power

The Downside of Relying on Research Outputs to Assess Business Faculty Performance: Comments from Down Under regarding "Facilitating and Creating Synergies between Teaching and Research: The Role of the Academic Administrator"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapman, Ross L.

2012-01-01

This commentary presents an Australian perspective on Balkin and Mello's "Facilitating and Creating Synergies between Teaching and Research: The Role of the Academic Administrator." It addresses one particularly important aspect of the separation of teaching and research in business schools; namely, the increasing dominance of…

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E.; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

A lower bound to the social cost of CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Botzen, W. J. W.

2014-04-01

Many studies have estimated the social cost of carbon (SCC). We critically evaluate SCC estimates, focusing on omitted cost categories, discounting, uncertainties about damage costs and risk aversion. This allows for the calculation of a lower bound to the SCC. Dominant SCC values turn out to be gross underestimates, notably, but not only, for a low discount rate. The validity of this lower bound is supported by a precautionary approach to reflect risk aversion against extreme climate change. The results justify a more stringent climate policy than is suggested by most influential past studies.

Online professional networks for physicians: risk management.

PubMed

Hyman, Jon L; Luks, Howard J; Sechrest, Randale

2012-05-01

The rapidly developing array of online physician-only communities represents a potential extraordinary advance in the availability of educational and informational resources to physicians. These online communities provide physicians with a new range of controls over the information they process, but use of this social media technology carries some risk. The purpose of this review was to help physicians manage the risks of online professional networking and discuss the potential benefits that may come with such networks. This article explores the risks and benefits of physicians engaging in online professional networking with peers and provides suggestions on risk management. Through an Internet search and literature review, we scrutinized available case law, federal regulatory code, and guidelines of conduct from professional organizations and consultants. We reviewed the OrthoMind.com site as a case example because it is currently the only online social network exclusively for orthopaedic surgeons. Existing case law suggests potential liability for orthopaedic surgeons who engage with patients on openly accessible social network platforms. Current society guidelines in both the United States and Britain provide sensible rules that may mitigate such risks. However, the overall lack of a strong body of legal opinions, government regulations as well as practical experience for most surgeons limit the suitability of such platforms. Closed platforms that are restricted to validated orthopaedic surgeons may limit these downside risks and hence allow surgeons to collaborate with one another both as clinicians and practice owners. Educating surgeons about the pros and cons of participating in these networking platforms is helping them more astutely manage risks and optimize benefits. This evolving online environment of professional interaction is one of few precedents, but the application of risk management strategies that physicians use in daily practice carries over into the online community. This participation should foster ongoing dialogue as new guidelines emerge. This will allow today's orthopaedic surgeon to feel more comfortable with online professional networks and better understand how to make an informed decision regarding their proper use.

Statistical Modeling for Radiation Hardness Assurance: Toward Bigger Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladbury, R.; Campola, M. J.

2015-01-01

New approaches to statistical modeling in radiation hardness assurance are discussed. These approaches yield quantitative bounds on flight-part radiation performance even in the absence of conventional data sources. This allows the analyst to bound radiation risk at all stages and for all decisions in the RHA process. It also allows optimization of RHA procedures for the project's risk tolerance.

Risk assessment and monitoring programme of nitrates through vegetables in the Region of Valencia (Spain).

PubMed

Quijano, Leyre; Yusà, Vicent; Font, Guillermina; McAllister, Claudia; Torres, Concepción; Pardo, Olga

2017-02-01

This study was carried out to determine current levels of nitrate in vegetables marketed in the Region of Valencia (Spain) and to estimate the toxicological risk associated with their intake. A total of 533 samples of seven vegetable species were studied. Nitrate levels were derived from the Valencia Region monitoring programme carried out from 2009 to 2013 and food consumption levels were taken from the first Valencia Food Consumption Survey, conducted in 2010. The exposure was estimated using a probabilistic approach and two scenarios were assumed for left-censored data: the lower-bound scenario, in which unquantified results (below the limit of quantification) were set to zero and the upper-bound scenario, in which unquantified results were set to the limit of quantification value. The exposure of the Valencia consumers to nitrate through the consumption of vegetable products appears to be relatively low. In the adult population (16-95 years) the P99.9 was 3.13 mg kg -1 body weight day -1 and 3.15 mg kg -1 body weight day -1 in the lower bound and upper bound scenario, respectively. On the other hand, for young people (6-15 years) the P99.9 of the exposure was 4.20 mg kg -1 body weight day -1 and 4.40 mg kg -1 body weight day -1 in the lower bound and upper bound scenario, respectively. The risk characterisation indicates that, under the upper bound scenario, 0.79% of adults and 1.39% of young people can exceed the Acceptable Daily Intake of nitrate. This percentage could join the vegetable extreme consumers (such as vegetarians) of vegetables. Overall, the estimated exposures to nitrate from vegetables are unlikely to result in appreciable health risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid warming in Tibet, China: public perception, response and coping resources in urban Lhasa

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Tibet, average altitude more than 4,000 meters, is warming faster than anywhere else in China. The increase in temperatures may aggravate existing health problems and lead to the emergence of new risks. However, there are no actions being taken at present to protect population health due to limited understanding about the range and magnitude of health effects of climate change. Methods The study was a cross-sectional survey of 619 respondents from urban Lhasa, Tibet in August 2012 with the aim to investigate public perceptions of risk, heat experiences, and coping resources. Results Respondents are aware of the warming that has occurred in Lhasa in recent years. Over 78% reported that rising temperature is either a “very” or “somewhat” serious threat to their own health, and nearly 40% reported they had experienced heat-related symptoms. Sex, age, education and income influenced perceived risks, health status, and heat experience. The vast majority of respondents reported that they had altered their behaviour on hot summer days. Bakuo, a sub-district at the city center, is considered especially vulnerable to heat because of sparse vegetation, high population density, poor dwelling conditions and a high proportion of low-income population. However, neighborhood social ties were stronger in Bakuo than other study locations. Conclusions The study suggests that actions are needed now to minimize downside effects of rapid warming in Tibet, because of increasing human exposure to high temperatures and uneven distribution of the resources needed to cope. PMID:24103412

Re-thinking the unimpeded tube-well growth under the depleting groundwater resources in the Punjab, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watto, Muhammad Arif; Mugera, Amin W.; Kingwell, Ross; Saqab, Muhammad Mudasar

2018-04-01

Groundwater resources are crucial in sustaining agro-ecosystems and ensuring food security in many parts of the world, including Pakistan. However, the sustainability of groundwater resources is subject to a number of challenges, including over-extraction, deterioration in quality, and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and population growth. Given the current state of groundwater resources in Pakistan, policymakers seek to manage groundwater resources by limiting groundwater extraction. To achieve this goal on a national scale, it is important to understand the determinants of the decisions made by local farmers in respect of tube-well adoption. This study investigates smallholder farmers' decisions to adopt tube-well technology in the face of dwindling groundwater resources and falling water tables. Analysis is based on a cross-sectional survey of 200 rural households from the arid to semi-arid predominantly groundwater-irrigated plains of the Punjab province, Pakistan. It is found that farmers will adopt tube-well technology in pursuit of reliable irrigation water supplies to hedge against production risks but not against the risk associated with unfavourable extreme events (downside risk) such as total crop failure. This suggests that the adoption decision is influenced by the expected long-term rather than the short-term benefits. This paper draws attention to the need to regulate groundwater resource exploitation by requiring the use of tube-well technology to be accompanied by irrigation water-efficient techniques and technologies.

The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030-2040

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

in general. However, to be fully effective in a war with China, AirSea Battle would likely require early (if not pre- 5 There is a potential downside...to establish a regional sphere of influence, potentially espousing ideologies that are in conflict with core values of the international system ...China may wish to deploy large-scale ground forces punitively, over a set of limited objectives, or differentiating Between a “ Systemic Continuity

The Use of MMF Screws: Surgical Technique, Indications, Contraindications, and Common Problems in Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Cornelius, Carl-Peter; Ehrenfeld, Michael

2010-01-01

Mandibulo-maxillary fixation (MMF) screws are inserted into the bony base of both jaws in the process of fracture realignment and immobilisation. The screw heads act as anchor points to fasten wire loops or rubber bands connecting the mandible to the maxilla. Traditional interdental chain-linked wiring or arch bar techniques provide the anchorage by attached cleats, hooks, or eyelets. In comparison to these tooth-borne appliances MMF screws facilitate and shorten the way to achieve intermaxillary fixation considerably. In addition, MMF screws help to reduce the hazards of glove perforation and wire stick injuries. On the downside, MMF screws are attributed with the risk of tooth root damage and a lack of versatility beyond the pure maintenance of occlusion such as stabilizing loose teeth or splinting fragments of the alveolar process. The surgical technique of MMF screws as well as the pros and cons of the clinical application are reviewed. The adequate screw placement to prevent serious tooth root injuries is still an issue to rethink and modify conceptual guidelines. PMID:22110819

Insidious enemy: downside to prolonged survival in prostate cancer.

PubMed

Lodhia, Vaishali; Puspanathan, Thevamalar

2017-08-02

An 83-year-old man, a prostate cancer survivor of 10 years with multiple vertebral metastases presented with sudden onset of double vision. On examination he was found to have an isolated partial left abducens palsy with no other neurological deficits. Despite having microvascular risk factors, given his history of prostate cancer, aMRI brain scan was requested to look for a neurological cause. The scan revealed a metastatic lesion in the clivus encasing the cavernous sinus and carotid artery. He was referred to his oncologist for further management, however he opted out of further treatment and succumbed to his illness a month later. This case report includes a literature review of cases with clivus metastases secondary to prostate cancer. It highlights the importance of carefully examining eye movements and having a high index of suspicion for the subtlest sign that may suggest brain metastases in elderly patients with prostate cancer with prolonged survival. © BMJ Publishing Group Ltd (unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.

Inhalation Exposure to PM-Bound Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Released from Barbecue Grills Powered by Gas, Lump Charcoal, and Charcoal Briquettes.

PubMed

Badyda, Artur J; Widziewicz, Kamila; Rogula-Kozłowska, Wioletta; Majewski, Grzegorz; Jureczko, Izabela

2018-01-01

The present study seeks to define the possible cancer risk arising from the inhalation exposure to particle (PM)-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) present in barbecue emission gases and to compare the risk depending on the type of fuel used for grill powering. Three types of fuel were compared: liquid propane gas, lump charcoal, and charcoal briquettes. PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-100 were collected during grilling. Subsequently, 16 PAHs congeners were extracted from the PM samples and measured quantitatively using gas chromatography. The content of PM-bound PAHs was used to calculate PAHs deposition in the respiratory tract using the multiple path particle dosimetry model. Finally, a probabilistic risk model was developed to assess the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) faced by people exposed to PAHs. We found a distinctly greater PAHs formation in case of grills powered by charcoal briquettes. The summary concentration of PAHs (Σ16PAH) ranged from <0.002 μg/m 3 (gas grill) to 21.52 μg/m 3 (grill powered by briquettes). Daily exposure of a grill operator, while grilling meat, to PM 2.5 -bound PAHs, adjusted to benzo[a]pyrene toxicity equivalent (BaP eq ), was 326.9, 401.6, and 0.04 ng/d for lump charcoal, charcoal briquettes, and gas powered grill, respectively. Exposure to PAHs emitted from charcoal briquettes was four orders of magnitude greater than that for gas grill. The ILCR followed a log-normal distribution, with a geometric mean of 8.38 × 10 -5 for exposure to PM 2.5 -bound PAHs emitted from gas grills unloaded with food and as high as 8.68 × 10 -1 for the grills loaded with food over charcoal briquettes. The estimated cancer risk for people who would inhale barbecue particles for 5 h a day, 40 days a year exceeds the acceptable level set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We conclude that the type of heat source used for grilling influences the PM-bound PAHs formation. The greatest concentration of PAHs is generated when grilling over charcoal briquettes. Loading grills with food generates conspicuously more PAHs emissions. Traditional grilling poses cancer risk much above the acceptable limit, as opposed to much less risk involving gas powered grills.

Mode-of-Action Uncertainty for Dual-Mode Carcinogens:Lower Bounds for Naphthalene-Induced Nasal Tumors in Rats Implied byPBPK and 2-Stage Stochastic Cancer Risk Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogen, K T

2007-01-30

As reflected in the 2005 USEPA Guidelines for Cancer Risk Assessment, some chemical carcinogens may have a site-specific mode of action (MOA) that is dual, involving mutation in addition to cell-killing induced hyperplasia. Although genotoxicity may contribute to increased risk at all doses, the Guidelines imply that for dual MOA (DMOA) carcinogens, judgment be used to compare and assess results obtained using separate ''linear'' (genotoxic) vs. ''nonlinear'' (nongenotoxic) approaches to low-level risk extrapolation. However, the Guidelines allow the latter approach to be used only when evidence is sufficient to parameterize a biologically based model that reliably extrapolates risk to lowmore » levels of concern. The Guidelines thus effectively prevent MOA uncertainty from being characterized and addressed when data are insufficient to parameterize such a model, but otherwise clearly support a DMOA. A bounding factor approach--similar to that used in reference dose procedures for classic toxicity endpoints--can address MOA uncertainty in a way that avoids explicit modeling of low-dose risk as a function of administered or internal dose. Even when a ''nonlinear'' toxicokinetic model cannot be fully validated, implications of DMOA uncertainty on low-dose risk may be bounded with reasonable confidence when target tumor types happen to be extremely rare. This concept was illustrated for the rodent carcinogen naphthalene. Bioassay data, supplemental toxicokinetic data, and related physiologically based pharmacokinetic and 2-stage stochastic carcinogenesis modeling results all clearly indicate that naphthalene is a DMOA carcinogen. Plausibility bounds on rat-tumor-type specific DMOA-related uncertainty were obtained using a 2-stage model adapted to reflect the empirical link between genotoxic and cytotoxic effects of the most potent identified genotoxic naphthalene metabolites, 1,2- and 1,4-naphthoquinone. Resulting bounds each provided the basis for a corresponding ''uncertainty'' factor <1 appropriate to apply to estimates of naphthalene risk obtained by linear extrapolation under a default genotoxic MOA assumption. This procedure is proposed as scientifically credible method to address MOA uncertainty for DMOA carcinogens.« less

Risks of Large Portfolios

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Shi, Xiaofeng

2014-01-01

The risk of a large portfolio is often estimated by substituting a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of such a risk estimator is largely unknown. We study factor-based risk estimators under a large amount of assets, and introduce a high-confidence level upper bound (H-CLUB) to assess the estimation. The H-CLUB is constructed using the confidence interval of risk estimators with either known or unknown factors. We derive the limiting distribution of the estimated risks in high dimensionality. We find that when the dimension is large, the factor-based risk estimators have the same asymptotic variance no matter whether the factors are known or not, which is slightly smaller than that of the sample covariance-based estimator. Numerically, H-CLUB outperforms the traditional crude bounds, and provides an insightful risk assessment. In addition, our simulated results quantify the relative error in the risk estimation, which is usually negligible using 3-month daily data. PMID:26195851

Petroleum Geology and the securities laws: Implications for professional practice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbott, D.M. Jr.; Achuff, C.H.

1991-03-01

Many geologists' practice includes such activities as recommending prospects, estimating reserves, and assembling drilling deals. When other people's money is used to finance these and other activities, the geologist, knowingly or not, becomes subject to the securities laws. Full disclosure to investors of all relevant information is the primary securities law principle affecting geological practice. In particular, geologic recommendations or reports reaching investors must effectively communicate both the upside potential and the downside risks of the project. If investors feel misled, the geologist may be sued for statements made in or based on his or her reports or for failingmore » to discuss significant factors. To reduce this risk, professional reports should state the date of the report, what was done, for whom, what data and underlying assumptions were used, what remains to be done, what is recommended, and whether distribution of the report should be restricted, among other things. Always retain a copy in case questions about the report's contents arise. Remember, reports tend to be passed along with the project and can be used or misused several years later by successors in interest in the project. In today's litigious society, there is an increasing likelihood that geologists may have to defend their work in court. Geologists should be aware of the impact of the securities and other laws on their practice.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogen, K T

A relatively simple, quantitative approach is proposed to address a specific, important gap in the appr approach recommended by the USEPA Guidelines for Cancer Risk Assessment to oach address uncertainty in carcinogenic mode of action of certain chemicals when risk is extrapolated from bioassay data. These Guidelines recognize that some chemical carcinogens may have a site-specific mode of action (MOA) that is dual, involving mutation in addition to cell-killing induced hyperplasia. Although genotoxicity may contribute to increased risk at all doses, the Guidelines imply that for dual MOA (DMOA) carcinogens, judgment be used to compare and assess results obtained usingmore » separate 'linear' (genotoxic) vs. 'nonlinear' (nongenotoxic) approaches to low low-level risk extrapolation. However, the Guidelines allow the latter approach to be used only when evidence is sufficient t to parameterize a biologically based model that reliably o extrapolates risk to low levels of concern. The Guidelines thus effectively prevent MOA uncertainty from being characterized and addressed when data are insufficient to parameterize such a model, but otherwise clearly support a DMOA. A bounding factor approach - similar to that used in reference dose procedures for classic toxicity endpoints - can address MOA uncertainty in a way that avoids explicit modeling of low low-dose risk as a function of administere administered or internal dose. Even when a 'nonlinear' toxicokinetic model cannot be fully validated, implications of DMOA uncertainty on low low-dose risk may be bounded with reasonable confidence when target tumor types happen to be extremely rare. This concept was i illustrated llustrated for a likely DMOA rodent carcinogen naphthalene, specifically to the issue of risk extrapolation from bioassay data on naphthalene naphthalene-induced nasal tumors in rats. Bioassay data, supplemental toxicokinetic data, and related physiologically based p pharmacokinetic and 2 harmacokinetic 2-stage stochastic carcinogenesis modeling results all clearly indicate that naphthalene is a DMOA carcinogen. Plausibility bounds on rat rat-tumor tumor-type specific DMOA DMOA-related uncertainty were obtained using a 2-stage model adapted to reflec reflect the empirical link between genotoxic and cytotoxic effects of t the most potent identified genotoxic naphthalene metabolites, 1,2 1,2- and 1,4 1,4-naphthoquinone. Bound Bound-specific 'adjustment' factors were then used to reduce naphthalene risk estimated by linear ex extrapolation (under the default genotoxic MOA assumption), to account for the DMOA trapolation exhibited by this compound.« less

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities in risk-taking rather than the "downside" and the general notion that catastrophes will get worse. The focus will be on the industry's ability to hedge and optimize risk more efficiently in a changing environment.

Analysis of risk factors for loss of lumbar lordosis in patients who had surgical treatment with segmental instrumentation for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

PubMed

Trobisch, Per D; Samdani, Amer F; Betz, Randal R; Bastrom, Tracey; Pahys, Joshua M; Cahill, Patrick J

2013-06-01

Iatrogenic flattening of lumbar lordosis in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) was a major downside of first generation instrumentation. Current instrumentation systems allow a three-dimensional scoliosis correction, but flattening of lumbar lordosis remains a significant problem which is associated with decreased health-related quality of life. This study sought to identify risk factors for loss of lumbar lordosis in patients who had surgical correction of AIS with the use of segmental instrumentation. Patients were included if they had surgical correction for AIS with segmental pedicle screw instrumentation Lenke type 1 or 2 and if they had a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Two groups were created, based on the average loss of lumbar lordosis. The two groups were then compared and multivariate analysis was performed to identify parameters that correlated to loss of lumbar lordosis. Four hundred and seventeen patients were analyzed for this study. The average loss of lumbar lordosis at 24 months follow-up was an increase of 10° lordosis for group 1 and a decrease of 15° for group 2. Risk factors for loss of lumbar lordosis included a high preoperative lumbar lordosis, surgical decrease of thoracic kyphosis, and the particular operating surgeon. The lowest instrumented vertebra or spinopelvic parameters were two of many parameters that did not seem to influence loss of lumbar lordosis. This study identified important risk factors for decrease of lumbar lordosis in patients who had surgical treatment for AIS with segmental pedicle screw instrumentation, including a high preoperative lumbar lordosis, surgical decrease of thoracic kyphosis, and factors attributable to a particular operating surgeon that were not quantified in this study.

Comonotonic bounds on the survival probabilities in the Lee-Carter model for mortality projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denuit, Michel; Dhaene, Jan

2007-06-01

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables.

Proceedings on Combating the Unrestricted Warfare Threat: Integrating Strategy, Analysis, and Technology, 10-11 March 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

irregular struggle, and, finally, a protracted struggle that will last decades rather than years. how will this war Evolve? It is hazardous to...There is no downside to engagement. It is not an act of para- noia or pessimism to engage Americans in the very real hazards that confront us. It...making process about what to do next. Because it is an undisciplined process, they work through about 100 options when there are only two: duck or

Search and Neutralize Factors (CSPGs) that Induce Decline in Transmission to Motoneurons from Spared Fibers after Chronic Spinal Cord Injury

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

animals received a subcutaneous injection of Buprenorphine (0.01mg/kg) to reduce post-operative pain. Contusion injury was performed at T10 spinal...HX SCI is attached). A downside of administration of NG2-antibody vial mini- pump in clinics is that it requires intrathecal implantation of the...principle, some recent clinical studies (Novartis clinical trials) showed that similar delivery of therapeutic agents using catheter implantation may

Open access: changing global science publishing.

PubMed

Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

2013-08-01

The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

Irregular Enemies and the Essence of Strategy: Can the American Way of War Adapt?

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

remain major challenges today. The three elements that constitute the argument of this analysis do not make agreeable reading for those who are...keep winning tactically, our strategy will flow agreeably from the cumulative verdicts of the battlefield. In practice, a war may thus be waged all...the sharp end of American war-making can have, and has had, the downside of encouraging a tooth-to-tail ratio almost absurdly weighted in favor of

Counterinsurgency on the Ground in Afghanistan. How Different Units Adapted to Local Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

insurgents were defeated at the hands of the Marines. From the day the Marines arrived, they executed a deliberate campaign plan de - veloped by the platoon...The downside of the oil spot approach was that it left many areas under de facto Taliban rule. For example, the Dutch followed an oil spot strategy... plan in 2006 was to oil spot out from Helmand’s provin- cial capital, Lashkar Gah, but when the Taliban attacked all of the towns in northern Helmand

9th Annual CMMI Technology Conference and User Group-Tuesday

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-19

evaluating and quantifying risk likelihood and severity risks. Step 4 Project defines thresholds for each risk category. Step 5 Project defines bounds on the...defines consistent criteria for evaluating and quantifying risk likelihood and severity risks in the Risk Management Plan. Step 4 Project defines

Emissions of particulate-bound elements from biodiesel and ultra low sulfur diesel: size distribution and risk assessment.

PubMed

Betha, Raghu; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

2013-01-01

Use of waste cooking oil derived biodiesel (WCOB) as an alternative fuel in diesel engines has increased significantly in recent years. The impact of WCOB on particulate emissions from diesel engines needs to be investigated thoroughly. This study was conducted to make a comparative evaluation and size-differentiated speciation of the particulate bound elements from ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) and WCOB and a blend of both of the fuels (B50). Particle mass and their elemental size distributions ranging from 0.01-5.6 μm were measured. It was observed that more ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) were emitted when the engine was fueled with WCOB. Fifteen particulate-bound elements such as K, Al, Mg, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Cd, Ni, As, Ba, Pb, Zn and Sr were investigated and reported in this study. Potential health risk associated with these particulate bound elements upon inhalation was also evaluated based on dose-response assessments for both adults and children. The findings indicate that the exposure to PM of the B100 exhaust is relatively more hazardous and may pose adverse health effects compared to that of ULSD. Also, investigations on human health risk due to exposure to UFPs indicate that UFPs contribute a major fraction (>70%) of the total estimated health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proximity-based access control for context-sensitive information provision in SOA-based systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajappan, Gowri; Wang, Xiaofei; Grant, Robert; Paulini, Matthew

2014-06-01

Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) has enabled open-architecture integration of applications within an enterprise. For net-centric Command and Control (C2), this elucidates information sharing between applications and users, a critical requirement for mission success. The Information Technology (IT) access control schemes, which arbitrate who gets access to what information, do not yet have the contextual knowledge to dynamically allow this information sharing to happen dynamically. The access control might prevent legitimate users from accessing information relevant to the current mission context, since this context may be very different from the context for which the access privileges were configured. We evaluate a pair of data relevance measures - proximity and risk - and use these as the basis of dynamic access control. Proximity is a measure of the strength of connection between the user and the resource. However, proximity is not sufficient, since some data might have a negative impact, if leaked, which far outweighs importance to the subject's mission. For this, we use a risk measure to quantify the downside of data compromise. Given these contextual measures of proximity and risk, we investigate extending Attribute-Based Access Control (ABAC), which is used by the Department of Defense, and Role-Based Access Control (RBAC), which is widely used in the civilian market, so that these standards-based access control models are given contextual knowledge to enable dynamic information sharing. Furthermore, we consider the use of such a contextual access control scheme in a SOA-based environment, in particular for net-centric C2.

The financial crisis in Italy: implications for the healthcare sector.

PubMed

de Belvis, Antonio Giulio; Ferrè, Francesca; Specchia, Maria Lucia; Valerio, Luca; Fattore, Giovanni; Ricciardi, Walter

2012-06-01

The global economic and financial crisis is having and impact on the Italian healthcare system which is undergoing a devolution process from the central government to regions and where about one third of the regional governments (mainly in the central and southern part of the country) are facing large financial deficits. The paper briefly describes the current macro scenario and the main responses taken to face the crisis and highlights the downside risks of introducing "linear" cuts in the allocation of resources. While justified by the risk of a national debt default, present fiscal policies might increase inequalities in access to care, deteriorate overall health indicators and population wellbeing, and sharpen existing difference in the quality of care between regions. Preliminary evidence shows that the crisis is affecting the quality of nutrition and the incidence of psychiatric disorders. During this difficult financial situation Italy is also facing the risk of a major reduction in investments for preventive medicine, Evidence Based Medicine infrastructures, health information systems and physical capital renewal. This cost-cutting strategy may have negative long term consequences Also, important achievement in terms of limiting waiting lists, improving continuity of care and patients' centeredness, and promoting integration between social and health care may be negatively affected by unprecedented resources' cuts. It is essential that in such a period of public funding constraints health authorities monitor incidence of diseases and access to care of the most vulnerable groups and specifically target interventions to those who may be disproportionally hit by the crisis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and pilot testing of a Decision Aid (DA) for women with early-stage breast cancer considering contralateral prophylactic mastectomy.

PubMed

Ager, B; Jansen, J; Porter, D; Phillips, K A; Glassey, R; Butow, P

2018-05-22

Describe the development, acceptability and feasibility of a Decision Aid (DA) for women with early-stage breast cancer (BC) at average contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk considering contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM). The DA was developed using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) and the Ottawa Decision Support Framework. It provides evidence-based information about CPM in a booklet format combining text, graphs and images of surgical options. Twenty-three women with a history of early-stage breast cancer were interviewed in person or over the phone using a 'think aloud approach'. Framework analysis was used to code and analyse data. Twenty-three women participated in the study. Mean age of participants was 58.6 years and time since diagnosis ranged from 14 months to 21 years. Five women had CPM and eighteen had not. Women strongly endorsed the DA. Many felt validated by a section on appearance and found information on average risk of recurrence and metastases helpful, however, noted the importance of discussing personal risk with their surgeon. Many requested more information on surgery details (time taken, recovery) and costs of the different options. The DA was acceptable to women, including the format, content and proposed implementation strategies. Practical and financial issues are important to women in considering treatment options. Women appreciate information about CPM at diagnosis and emphasised the importance of discussing potential downsides of the procedure in addition to benefits. The DA was considered acceptable to facilitate such discussions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical Mixtures and Epidemiologic Fundamentals for Risk Assessment Applications

EPA Science Inventory

Risk management options are increasingly being considered early in the risk assessment process to help scope the considerations and bound the inherent complexities related to potential exposures, risk and future clean-up decisions (including acceptable pollutant levels) related t...

Scattered radiation risk to the lens of the eyes for staff involved in using mobile C-arm fluoroscopy unit: Which position is riskiest?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salleh, H.; Samat, S. B.; Matori, M. K.; Isa, M. J. M.

2015-09-01

Cataractogenesis is something to be concerned by radiologist and radiographer who work extensively in fluoroscopy. The increasing use of fluoroscopy or interventional fluoroscopy has to come with safety awareness on scattered radiation risk for staff performing the procedure. This study is looking into the radiation risk to the lens of the eyes for staff involved in fluoroscopy using the mobile C-arm fluoroscopy unit. The Toshiba SXT-1000A and Alderson Rando phantom were used in this study. Based on the results, it is found clearly that over couch (OC) procedure is riskier than under couch (UC) procedure. The cathode bound area is clearly riskier than anode bound area especially for UC procedure. More doses (at least +1,568 % of safest position) are received by the lens of the eyes for staff standing at the cathode bound area especially the position opposite to the x-ray tube.

Scattered radiation risk to the lens of the eyes for staff involved in using mobile C-arm fluoroscopy unit: Which position is riskiest?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salleh, H.; Matori, M. K.; Isa, M. J. M.

Cataractogenesis is something to be concerned by radiologist and radiographer who work extensively in fluoroscopy. The increasing use of fluoroscopy or interventional fluoroscopy has to come with safety awareness on scattered radiation risk for staff performing the procedure. This study is looking into the radiation risk to the lens of the eyes for staff involved in fluoroscopy using the mobile C-arm fluoroscopy unit. The Toshiba SXT-1000A and Alderson Rando phantom were used in this study. Based on the results, it is found clearly that over couch (OC) procedure is riskier than under couch (UC) procedure. The cathode bound area ismore » clearly riskier than anode bound area especially for UC procedure. More doses (at least +1,568 % of safest position) are received by the lens of the eyes for staff standing at the cathode bound area especially the position opposite to the x-ray tube.« less

Household's willingness to pay for arsenic safe drinking water in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Khan, Nasreen Islam; Brouwer, Roy; Yang, Hong

2014-10-01

This study examines willingness to pay (WTP) in Bangladesh for arsenic (As) safe drinking water across different As-risk zones, applying a double bound discrete choice value elicitation approach. The study aims to provide a robust estimate of the benefits of As safe drinking water supply, which is compared to the results from a similar study published almost 10 years ago using a single bound estimation procedure. Tests show that the double bound valuation design does not suffer from anchoring or incentive incompatibility effects. Health risk awareness levels are high and households are willing to pay on average about 5 percent of their disposable average annual household income for As safe drinking water. Important factors influencing WTP include the bid amount to construct communal deep tubewell for As safe water supply, the risk zone where respondents live, household income, water consumption, awareness of water source contamination, whether household members are affected by As contamination, and whether they already take mitigation measures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robotic Thyroid Surgery: Current Perspectives and Future Considerations.

PubMed

Aidan, Patrick; Arora, Asit; Lorincz, Balazs; Tolley, Neil; Garas, George

2018-05-22

Robotic transaxillary thyroidectomy, pioneered in South Korea, is firmly established throughout the Far East but remains controversial in Western practice. This relates to important population differences (anthropometry and culture) compounded by the smaller mean size of thyroid nodules operated on in South Korea due to a national thyroid cancer screening programme. There is now level 2 evidence (including from Western World centres) to support the safety, feasibility, and equivalence of the robotic approach to its open counterpart in terms of recurrent laryngeal nerve injury, hypoparathyroidism, haemorrhage, and oncological outcomes for differentiated thyroid cancer. Moreover, robotic thyroidectomy has been shown to be superior to open surgery for certain patient-reported outcome measures, namely scar cosmesis and pain. Downsides include its high cost, longer operative time, and risk of complications not encountered in open thyroidectomy (brachial plexus neurapraxia). Careful patient selection is paramount as this procedure is not for every patient, surgeon, or hospital. It should only be undertaken by high-volume surgeons operating as part of a multidisciplinary robotic team in specialised centres. Novel robotic approaches utilising the retroauricular and transoral routes for thyroidectomy have recently been described but further studies are required to establish their respective role in modern thyroid surgery. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Biomass burning contributed most to the human cancer risk exposed to the soil-bound PAHs from Chengdu Economic Region, western China.

PubMed

Zheng, Huang; Xing, Xinli; Hu, Tianpeng; Zhang, Yuan; Zhang, Jiaquan; Zhu, Gehao; Li, Ying; Qi, Shihua

2018-05-03

The purpose of this study was to assess the human cancer risk due to the exposure to the soil-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from Chengdu Economic Region (CER), western China with the main concern on cancer risk source apportionment. The total concentrations of sixteen PAHs ranged from 12.5 to 75431 ng g -1 , with a mean value of 3106 ng g -1 , which suggested that the most areas of CER were contaminated. Source apportionment of PAHs was conducted by the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and the biomass burning contributed most (63.6%) to the total PAHs, followed by petroleum combustion (16.0%), coke source (11.3%), and petrogenic source (9.2%). Results from incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) calculation showed that soil ingestion exerted the highest cancer risk (accounted for 98.1 - 99.3% of the total cancer risk) on human health among three different exposure pathways, followed by dermal contact (0.66 - 1.83%) and inhalation (0.03 - 0.04%). Among different age groups, adult suffered the highest cancer risk via any exposure pathways. Based on PMF and ILCR methods, the cancer risk source apportionment was conducted and the biomass burning showed moderate cancer risk. The petrogenic, coke, and petroleum sources showed low cancer risks to human. To analyze the sensitivity of the parameters used in ILCR calculation, Monte Carlo simulation was employed. The results indicated that the contribution of each source and exposure duration (ED) were the influential parameters on human health associated with soil-bound PAHs. Therefore, much attentions should be paid to biomass burning to avoid cumulative cancer risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robust portfolio selection based on asymmetric measures of variability of stock returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Tan, Shaohua

2009-10-01

This paper addresses a new uncertainty set--interval random uncertainty set for robust optimization. The form of interval random uncertainty set makes it suitable for capturing the downside and upside deviations of real-world data. These deviation measures capture distributional asymmetry and lead to better optimization results. We also apply our interval random chance-constrained programming to robust mean-variance portfolio selection under interval random uncertainty sets in the elements of mean vector and covariance matrix. Numerical experiments with real market data indicate that our approach results in better portfolio performance.

Fine-scale mapping of the FGFR2 breast cancer risk locus: putative functional variants differentially bind FOXA1 and E2F1.

PubMed

Meyer, Kerstin B; O'Reilly, Martin; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Carlebur, Saskia; Edwards, Stacey L; French, Juliet D; Prathalingham, Radhika; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; de Santiago, Ines; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Van 't Veer, Laura J; Hogervorst, Frans B; Muir, Kenneth; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Siriwanarangsan, Pornthep; Fasching, Peter A; Lux, Michael P; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Peto, Julian; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Fletcher, Olivia; Johnson, Nichola; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Marme, Federick; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Burwinkel, Barbara; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Menegaux, Florence; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Milne, Roger L; Zamora, M Pilar; Arias, Jose I; Benitez, Javier; Neuhausen, Susan; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Ziogas, Argyrios; Dur, Christina C; Brenner, Hermann; Müller, Heiko; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Engel, Christoph; Ditsch, Nina; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Iwata, Hiroji; Yatabe, Yasushi; Dörk, Thilo; Helbig, Sonja; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Wu, Anna H; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Van Den Berg, David; Stram, Daniel O; Lambrechts, Diether; Thienpont, Bernard; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Smeets, Ann; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Bonanni, Bernardo; Bernard, Loris; Couch, Fergus J; Olson, Janet E; Wang, Xianshu; Purrington, Kristen; Giles, Graham G; Severi, Gianluca; Baglietto, Laura; McLean, Catriona; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Yip, Cheng-Har; Phuah, Sze-Yee; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Zheng, Wei; Deming-Halverson, Sandra; Shrubsole, Martha; Long, Jirong; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kauppila, Saila; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Glendon, Gord; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline M; García-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J; Lissowska, Jolanta; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hartef; Eriksson, Kimael; Hooning, Maartje J; Martens, John W M; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; van Deurzen, Carolien H M; Hall, Per; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Lu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Cai, Hui; Cox, Angela; Reed, Malcolm W R; Blot, William; Signorello, Lisa B; Cai, Qiuyin; Pharoah, Paul D P; Ghoussaini, Maya; Harrington, Patricia; Tyrer, Jonathan; Kang, Daehee; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Park, Sue K; Noh, Dong-Young; Hartman, Mikael; Hui, Miao; Lim, Wei-Yen; Buhari, Shaik A; Hamann, Ute; Försti, Asta; Rüdiger, Thomas; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Gaborieau, Valerie; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James; Vachon, Celine; Slager, Susan; Fostira, Florentia; Pilarski, Robert; Shen, Chen-Yang; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Wu, Pei-Ei; Hou, Ming-Feng; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Ponder, Bruce A J; Dunning, Alison M; Easton, Douglas F

2013-12-05

The 10q26 locus in the second intron of FGFR2 is the locus most strongly associated with estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer in genome-wide association studies. We conducted fine-scale mapping in case-control studies genotyped with a custom chip (iCOGS), comprising 41 studies (n = 89,050) of European ancestry, 9 Asian ancestry studies (n = 13,983), and 2 African ancestry studies (n = 2,028) from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We identified three statistically independent risk signals within the locus. Within risk signals 1 and 3, genetic analysis identified five and two variants, respectively, highly correlated with the most strongly associated SNPs. By using a combination of genetic fine mapping, data on DNase hypersensitivity, and electrophoretic mobility shift assays to study protein-DNA binding, we identified rs35054928, rs2981578, and rs45631563 as putative functional SNPs. Chromatin immunoprecipitation showed that FOXA1 preferentially bound to the risk-associated allele (C) of rs2981578 and was able to recruit ERα to this site in an allele-specific manner, whereas E2F1 preferentially bound the risk variant of rs35054928. The risk alleles were preferentially found in open chromatin and bound by Ser5 phosphorylated RNA polymerase II, suggesting that the risk alleles are associated with changes in transcription. Chromatin conformation capture demonstrated that the risk region was able to interact with the promoter of FGFR2, the likely target gene of this risk region. A role for FOXA1 in mediating breast cancer susceptibility at this locus is consistent with the finding that the FGFR2 risk locus primarily predisposes to estrogen-receptor-positive disease. Copyright © 2013 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fine-Scale Mapping of the FGFR2 Breast Cancer Risk Locus: Putative Functional Variants Differentially Bind FOXA1 and E2F1

PubMed Central

Meyer, Kerstin B.; O’Reilly, Martin; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Carlebur, Saskia; Edwards, Stacey L.; French, Juliet D.; Prathalingham, Radhika; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; de Santiago, Ines; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Van ’t Veer, Laura J.; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Muir, Kenneth; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Siriwanarangsan, Pornthep; Fasching, Peter A.; Lux, Michael P.; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Fletcher, Olivia; Johnson, Nichola; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Marme, Federick; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Burwinkel, Barbara; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Menegaux, Florence; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Milne, Roger L.; Zamora, M. Pilar; Arias, Jose I.; Benitez, Javier; Neuhausen, Susan; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Ziogas, Argyrios; Dur, Christina C.; Brenner, Hermann; Müller, Heiko; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Engel, Christoph; Ditsch, Nina; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Iwata, Hiroji; Yatabe, Yasushi; Dörk, Thilo; Helbig, Sonja; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Wu, Anna H.; Tseng, Chiu-chen; Van Den Berg, David; Stram, Daniel O.; Lambrechts, Diether; Thienpont, Bernard; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Smeets, Ann; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Bonanni, Bernardo; Bernard, Loris; Couch, Fergus J.; Olson, Janet E.; Wang, Xianshu; Purrington, Kristen; Giles, Graham G.; Severi, Gianluca; Baglietto, Laura; McLean, Catriona; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Yip, Cheng-Har; Phuah, Sze-Yee; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Zheng, Wei; Deming-Halverson, Sandra; Shrubsole, Martha; Long, Jirong; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kauppila, Saila; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Glendon, Gord; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A.E.M.; Seynaeve, Caroline M.; García-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J.; Lissowska, Jolanta; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hartef; Eriksson, Kimael; Hooning, Maartje J.; Martens, John W.M.; van den Ouweland, Ans M.W.; van Deurzen, Carolien H.M.; Hall, Per; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Lu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Cai, Hui; Cox, Angela; Reed, Malcolm W.R.; Blot, William; Signorello, Lisa B.; Cai, Qiuyin; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Ghoussaini, Maya; Harrington, Patricia; Tyrer, Jonathan; Kang, Daehee; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Park, Sue K.; Noh, Dong-Young; Hartman, Mikael; Hui, Miao; Lim, Wei-Yen; Buhari, Shaik A.; Hamann, Ute; Försti, Asta; Rüdiger, Thomas; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Gaborieau, Valerie; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James; Vachon, Celine; Slager, Susan; Fostira, Florentia; Pilarski, Robert; Shen, Chen-Yang; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Wu, Pei-Ei; Hou, Ming-Feng; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Ponder, Bruce A.J.; Dunning, Alison M.; Easton, Douglas F.

2013-01-01

The 10q26 locus in the second intron of FGFR2 is the locus most strongly associated with estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer in genome-wide association studies. We conducted fine-scale mapping in case-control studies genotyped with a custom chip (iCOGS), comprising 41 studies (n = 89,050) of European ancestry, 9 Asian ancestry studies (n = 13,983), and 2 African ancestry studies (n = 2,028) from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We identified three statistically independent risk signals within the locus. Within risk signals 1 and 3, genetic analysis identified five and two variants, respectively, highly correlated with the most strongly associated SNPs. By using a combination of genetic fine mapping, data on DNase hypersensitivity, and electrophoretic mobility shift assays to study protein-DNA binding, we identified rs35054928, rs2981578, and rs45631563 as putative functional SNPs. Chromatin immunoprecipitation showed that FOXA1 preferentially bound to the risk-associated allele (C) of rs2981578 and was able to recruit ERα to this site in an allele-specific manner, whereas E2F1 preferentially bound the risk variant of rs35054928. The risk alleles were preferentially found in open chromatin and bound by Ser5 phosphorylated RNA polymerase II, suggesting that the risk alleles are associated with changes in transcription. Chromatin conformation capture demonstrated that the risk region was able to interact with the promoter of FGFR2, the likely target gene of this risk region. A role for FOXA1 in mediating breast cancer susceptibility at this locus is consistent with the finding that the FGFR2 risk locus primarily predisposes to estrogen-receptor-positive disease. PMID:24290378

An evolutionary model of bounded rationality and intelligence.

PubMed

Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

2012-01-01

Most economic theories are based on the premise that individuals maximize their own self-interest and correctly incorporate the structure of their environment into all decisions, thanks to human intelligence. The influence of this paradigm goes far beyond academia-it underlies current macroeconomic and monetary policies, and is also an integral part of existing financial regulations. However, there is mounting empirical and experimental evidence, including the recent financial crisis, suggesting that humans do not always behave rationally, but often make seemingly random and suboptimal decisions. Here we propose to reconcile these contradictory perspectives by developing a simple binary-choice model that takes evolutionary consequences of decisions into account as well as the role of intelligence, which we define as any ability of an individual to increase its genetic success. If no intelligence is present, our model produces results consistent with prior literature and shows that risks that are independent across individuals in a generation generally lead to risk-neutral behaviors, but that risks that are correlated across a generation can lead to behaviors such as risk aversion, loss aversion, probability matching, and randomization. When intelligence is present the nature of risk also matters, and we show that even when risks are independent, either risk-neutral behavior or probability matching will occur depending upon the cost of intelligence in terms of reproductive success. In the case of correlated risks, we derive an implicit formula that shows how intelligence can emerge via selection, why it may be bounded, and how such bounds typically imply the coexistence of multiple levels and types of intelligence as a reflection of varying environmental conditions. Rational economic behavior in which individuals maximize their own self interest is only one of many possible types of behavior that arise from natural selection. The key to understanding which types of behavior are more likely to survive is how behavior affects reproductive success in a given population's environment. From this perspective, intelligence is naturally defined as behavior that increases the probability of reproductive success, and bounds on rationality are determined by physiological and environmental constraints.

An Evolutionary Model of Bounded Rationality and Intelligence

PubMed Central

Brennan, Thomas J.; Lo, Andrew W.

2012-01-01

Background Most economic theories are based on the premise that individuals maximize their own self-interest and correctly incorporate the structure of their environment into all decisions, thanks to human intelligence. The influence of this paradigm goes far beyond academia–it underlies current macroeconomic and monetary policies, and is also an integral part of existing financial regulations. However, there is mounting empirical and experimental evidence, including the recent financial crisis, suggesting that humans do not always behave rationally, but often make seemingly random and suboptimal decisions. Methods and Findings Here we propose to reconcile these contradictory perspectives by developing a simple binary-choice model that takes evolutionary consequences of decisions into account as well as the role of intelligence, which we define as any ability of an individual to increase its genetic success. If no intelligence is present, our model produces results consistent with prior literature and shows that risks that are independent across individuals in a generation generally lead to risk-neutral behaviors, but that risks that are correlated across a generation can lead to behaviors such as risk aversion, loss aversion, probability matching, and randomization. When intelligence is present the nature of risk also matters, and we show that even when risks are independent, either risk-neutral behavior or probability matching will occur depending upon the cost of intelligence in terms of reproductive success. In the case of correlated risks, we derive an implicit formula that shows how intelligence can emerge via selection, why it may be bounded, and how such bounds typically imply the coexistence of multiple levels and types of intelligence as a reflection of varying environmental conditions. Conclusions Rational economic behavior in which individuals maximize their own self interest is only one of many possible types of behavior that arise from natural selection. The key to understanding which types of behavior are more likely to survive is how behavior affects reproductive success in a given population’s environment. From this perspective, intelligence is naturally defined as behavior that increases the probability of reproductive success, and bounds on rationality are determined by physiological and environmental constraints. PMID:23185602

Stereotactic Radiosurgery in the Management of Patients With Brain Metastases of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Indications, Decision Tools and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Hartgerink, Dianne; van der Heijden, Britt; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Postma, Alida; Ackermans, Linda; Hoeben, Ann; Anten, Monique; Lambin, Philippe; Terhaag, Karin; Jochems, Arthur; Dekker, Andre; Schoenmaekers, Janna; Hendriks, Lizza; Zindler, Jaap

2018-01-01

Brain metastases (BM) frequently occur in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Most patients with BM have a limited life expectancy, measured in months. Selected patients may experience a very long progression-free survival, for example, patients with a targetable driver mutation. Traditionally, whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) has been the cornerstone of the treatment, but its indication is a matter of debate. A randomized trial has shown that for patients with a poor prognosis, WBRT does not add quality of life (QoL) nor survival over the best supportive care. In recent decades, stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) has become an attractive non-invasive treatment for patients with BM. Only the BM is irradiated to an ablative dose, sparing healthy brain tissue. Intracranial recurrence rates decrease when WBRT is administered following SRS or resection but does not improve overall survival and comes at the expense of neurocognitive function and QoL. The downside of SRS compared with WBRT is a risk of radionecrosis (RN) and a higher risk of developing new BM during follow-up. Currently, SRS is an established treatment for patients with a maximum of four BM. Several promising strategies are currently being investigated to further improve the indication and outcome of SRS for patients with BM: the effectivity and safety of SRS in patients with more than four BM, combining SRS with systemic therapy such as targeted agents or immunotherapy, shared decision-making with SRS as a treatment option, and individualized isotoxic dose prescription to mitigate the risk of RN and further enhance local control probability of SRS. This review discusses the current indications of SRS and future directions of treatment for patients with BM of NSCLC with focus on the value of SRS.

Sickness absence at a young age and later sickness absence, disability pension, death, unemployment and income in native Swedes and immigrants.

PubMed

Helgesson, Magnus; Johansson, Bo; Nordqvist, Tobias; Lundberg, Ingvar; Vingård, Eva

2015-08-01

Sickness absence with cash benefits from the sickness insurance gives an opportunity to be relieved from work without losing financial security. There are, however, downsides to taking sickness absence. Periods of sickness absence, even short ones, can increase the risk for future spells of sickness absence and unemployment. The sickness period may in itself have a detrimental effect on health. The aim of the study was to investigate if there is an association between exposure to sickness absence at a young age and later sickness absence, disability pension, death, unemployment and income from work. Our cohort consisted of all immigrants aged 21-25 years in Sweden in 1993 (N = 38 207) and a control group of native Swedes in the same age group (N = 225 977). We measured exposure to sickness absence in 1993 with a follow-up period of 15 years. We conducted separate analyses for men and women, and for immigrants and native Swedes. Exposure to ≥60 days of sickness absence in 1993 increased the risk of sickness absence [hazard ratio (HR) 1.6-11.4], unemployment (HR 1.1-1.2), disability pension (HR 1.2-5.3) and death (HR 1.2-3.5). The income from work, during the follow-up period, among individuals with spells of sick leave for ≥60 days in 1993 was around two-thirds of that of the working population who did not take sick leave. Individuals on sickness absence had an increased risk for work absence, death and lower future income. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

PM Origin or Exposure Duration? Health Hazards from PM-Bound Mercury and PM-Bound PAHs among Students and Lecturers

PubMed Central

Majewski, Grzegorz; Widziewicz, Kamila; Rogula-Kozłowska, Wioletta; Rogula-Kopiec, Patrycja; Kociszewska, Karolina; Rozbicki, Tomasz; Majder-Łopatka, Małgorzata; Niemczyk, Mariusz

2018-01-01

This study assessed inhalation exposure to particulate matter (PM1)-bound mercury (Hgp) and PM1-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) among university students. For this purpose, simultaneous indoor (I) and outdoor (O) measurements were taken from two Polish technical universities (in Gliwice and Warsaw) located in distinct areas with respect to ambient concentrations and major sources of PM. The indoor geometric mean concentrations of Hgp were found to be 1.46 pg·m−3 and 6.38 pg·m−3 in Warsaw and Gliwice, while the corresponding outdoor concentrations were slightly lower at 1.38 pg·m−3 and 3.03 pg·m−3, respectively. A distinct pattern was found with respect to PAH concentrations with estimated I/O values of 22.2 ng·m−3/22.5 ng·m−3 in Gliwice and 10.9 ng·m−3/11.12 ng·m−3 in Warsaw. Hazard quotients (HQs) as a result of exposure to Hgp for students aged 21 ranged from 3.47 × 10−5 (Warsaw) to 1.3 × 10−4 (Gliwice) in terms of reasonable maximum exposure (RME). The non-cancer human health risk value related to Hgp exposure was thus found to be below the acceptable risk level value of 1.0 given by the US EPA. Daily exposure values for lecture hall occupants, adjusted to the benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) toxicity equivalent (BaPeq), were 2.9 and 1.02 ng·m−3 for the Gliwice and Warsaw students, respectively. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) values with respect to exposure to PM1-bound PAHs during the students’ time of study were 5.49 × 10−8 (Warsaw) and 1.43 × 10−7 (Gliwice). Thus, students’ exposure to indoor PAHs does not lead to increased risk of lung cancer. PMID:29439524

Chance-Constrained Guidance With Non-Convex Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro

2011-01-01

Missions to small bodies, such as comets or asteroids, require autonomous guidance for descent to these small bodies. Such guidance is made challenging by uncertainty in the position and velocity of the spacecraft, as well as the uncertainty in the gravitational field around the small body. In addition, the requirement to avoid collision with the asteroid represents a non-convex constraint that means finding the optimal guidance trajectory, in general, is intractable. In this innovation, a new approach is proposed for chance-constrained optimal guidance with non-convex constraints. Chance-constrained guidance takes into account uncertainty so that the probability of collision is below a specified threshold. In this approach, a new bounding method has been developed to obtain a set of decomposed chance constraints that is a sufficient condition of the original chance constraint. The decomposition of the chance constraint enables its efficient evaluation, as well as the application of the branch and bound method. Branch and bound enables non-convex problems to be solved efficiently to global optimality. Considering the problem of finite-horizon robust optimal control of dynamic systems under Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty, with state and control constraints, a discrete-time, continuous-state linear dynamics model is assumed. Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty is a more natural model for exogenous disturbances such as wind gusts and turbulence than the previously studied set-bounded models. However, with stochastic uncertainty, it is often impossible to guarantee that state constraints are satisfied, because there is typically a non-zero probability of having a disturbance that is large enough to push the state out of the feasible region. An effective framework to address robustness with stochastic uncertainty is optimization with chance constraints. These require that the probability of violating the state constraints (i.e., the probability of failure) is below a user-specified bound known as the risk bound. An example problem is to drive a car to a destination as fast as possible while limiting the probability of an accident to 10(exp -7). This framework allows users to trade conservatism against performance by choosing the risk bound. The more risk the user accepts, the better performance they can expect.

Microgrid Utilities for Rural Electrification in East Africa: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Nathaniel J.

Expanding access to electricity is central to development in East Africa but massive increases in investment are required to achieve universal access. Private sector participation in electrification is essential to meeting electricity access targets. Policy makers have acknowledged that grid extension in many remote rural areas is not as cost effective as decentralized alternatives such as microgrids. Microgrid companies have been unable to scale beyond pilot projects due in part to challenges in raising capital for a business model that is perceived to be risky. This thesis aims to identify and quantify the primary sources of investment risk in microgrid utilities and study ways to mitigate these risks to make these businesses more viable. Two modeling tools have been developed to this end. The Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model (STEMM) models the technical and financial performance of microgrid utilities using uncertain and dynamic inputs to permit explicit modeling of financial risk. This model is applied in an investment risk assessment and case study in Rwanda. Key findings suggest that the most important drivers of risk are fuel prices, foreign exchange rates, demand for electricity, and price elasticity of demand for electricity. The relative importance of these factors is technology dependent with demand uncertainty figuring stronger for solar and high solar penetration hybrid systems and fuel prices driving risk in diesel power and low solar penetration hybrid systems. Considering uncertainty in system sizing presents a tradeoff whereby a decrease in expected equity return decreases downside risk. High solar penetration systems are also found to be more attractive to lenders. The second modeling tool leverages electricity consumption and demographic data from four microgrids in Tanzania to forecast demand for electricity in newly electrified communities. Using statistical learning techniques, improvements in prediction performance was achieved over the historical mean baseline. I have also identified important predictors in estimating electricity consumption of newly connected customers. These include tariff structures and prices, pre- connection sources of electricity and lighting, levels of spending on electricity services and airtime, and pre-connection appliance ownership. Prior exposure to electricity, disposable income, and price are dominant factors in estimating demand.

Interpreting Space-Mission LET Requirements for SEGR in Power MOSFETs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauenstein, J. M.; Ladbury, R. L.; Batchelor, D. A.; Goldsman, N.; Kim, H. S.; Phan, A. M.

2010-01-01

A Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) simulation-based method is developed to evaluate whether derating of high-energy heavy-ion accelerator test data bounds the risk for single-event gate rupture (SEGR) from much higher energy on-orbit ions for a mission linear energy transfer (LET) requirement. It is shown that a typical derating factor of 0.75 applied to a single-event effect (SEE) response curve defined by high-energy accelerator SEGR test data provides reasonable on-orbit hardness assurance, although in a high-voltage power MOSFET, it did not bound the risk of failure.

Creating a New Architecture for the Learning College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Banion, Terry

2007-01-01

The publication of "A Nation at Risk" in 1983 triggered a series of major reform efforts in education that are still evolving. As part of the reform efforts, leaders began to refer to a Learning Revolution that would "place learning first by overhauling the traditional architecture of education." The old architecture--time-bound, place-bound,…

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...

Bounding the Risk of Crew Loss Following Orbital Debris Penetration of the International Space Station at Assembly Stages 1J and 1E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, S.; Lewis, H.; Williamsen, J.; Evans, H.; Bohl, W.; Parker, Nelson (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been sufficiently large to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight lJ, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight lE, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures and configurations that reduce R at these stages.

The downside of strong emotional memories: how human memory-related genes influence the risk for posttraumatic stress disorder--a selective review.

PubMed

Wilker, Sarah; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

2014-07-01

A good memory for emotionally arousing experiences may be intrinsically adaptive, as it helps the organisms to predict safety and danger and to choose appropriate responses to prevent potential harm. However, under conditions of repeated exposure to traumatic stressors, strong emotional memories of these experiences can lead to the development of trauma-related disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This syndrome is characterized by distressing intrusive memories that can be so intense that the survivor is unable to discriminate past from present experiences. This selective review on the role of memory-related genes in PTSD etiology is divided in three sections. First, we summarize studies indicating that the likelihood to develop PTSD depends on the cumulative exposure to traumatic stressors and on individual predisposing risk factors, including a substantial genetic contribution to PTSD risk. Second, we focus on memory processes supposed to be involved in PTSD etiology and present evidence for PTSD-associated alterations in both implicit (fear conditioning, fear extinction) and explicit memory for emotional material. This is supplemented by a brief description of structural and functional alterations in memory-relevant brain regions in PTSD. Finally, we summarize a selection of studies indicating that genetic variations found to be associated with enhanced fear conditioning, reduced fear extinction or better episodic memory in human experimental studies can have clinical implications in the case of trauma exposure and influence the risk of PTSD development. Here, we focus on genes involved in noradrenergic (ADRA2B), serotonergic (SLC6A4), and dopaminergic signaling (COMT) as well as in the molecular cascades of memory formation (PRKCA and WWC1). This is supplemented by initial evidence that such memory-related genes might also influence the response rates of exposure-based psychotherapy or pharmacological treatment of PTSD, which underscores the relevance of basic memory research for disorders of altered memory functioning such as PTSD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water market transfers in South Africa: Two case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieuwoudt, W. L.; Armitage, R. M.

2004-09-01

Statistical analyses (discriminant, logit, and principal components) of water transfers in the Lower Orange River showed that water rights were transferred to farmers with the highest return per unit of water applied, those producing table grapes, and with high-potential arable "outer land" without water rights. Only unused water (sleeper right) was transferred, while water saved (through adoption of conservation practices) was retained possibly for security purposes. A second study in the Nkwaleni Valley in northern KwaZulu-Natal found that no water market had emerged despite the scarcity of water in the area. No willing sellers of water rights existed. Demand for institutional change to establish tradable water rights may take more time in the second area since crop profitability in this area is similar for potential buyers and nonbuyers. Transaction costs appear larger than benefits from market transactions. Farmers generally use all their water rights in the second area and retain surplus water rights as security against drought because of unreliable river flow. This study indicates that these irrigation farmers are highly risk averse (downside risk). Government policies that increase the level of risk and reduce security of licenses are estimated to have a significant effect on future investment in irrigation. In an investment model the following variables explain future investment: expected profits, liquidity, risk aversion (Arrow-Pratt), and security of water use rights. The study is seen in the light of the New South African Water Act of 1998. According to this act, the ownership of water in South Africa has changed from private to public. This reform may not impede the development of water markets in South Africa since in the well-developed water markets of the United States, western states claim ownership of water within their boundaries. All states in the western United States allow private rights in the use of water to be established and sold.

Knowledge-intensive software design systems: Can too much knowledge be a burden?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Richard M.

1992-01-01

While acknowledging the considerable benefits of domain-specific, knowledge-intensive approaches to automated software engineering, it is prudent to carefully examine the costs of such approaches, as well. In adding domain knowledge to a system, a developer makes a commitment to understanding, representing, maintaining, and communicating that knowledge. This substantial overhead is not generally associated with domain-independent approaches. In this paper, I examine the downside of incorporating additional knowledge, and illustrate with examples based on our experience in building the SIGMA system. I also offer some guidelines for developers building domain-specific systems.

Knowledge-intensive software design systems: Can too much knowledge be a burden?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Richard M.

1992-01-01

While acknowledging the considerable benefits of domain-specific, knowledge-intensive approaches to automated software engineering, it is prudent to carefully examine the costs of such approaches, as well. In adding domain knowledge to a system, a developer makes a commitment to understanding, representing, maintaining, and communicating that knowledge. This substantial overhead is not generally associated with domain-independent approaches. In this paper, I examine the downside of incorporating additional knowledge, and illustrate with examples based on our experiences building the SIGMA system. I also offer some guidelines for developers building domain-specific systems.

Some Pros and Cons of Laptop Use in Class

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, R. W.

2018-05-01

We did not have laptops or computer networks in schools in 1968, when I started teaching physics. When classroom computers became available, followed by the internet, I greeted them as great educational tools. I developed my own website in order to provide reference material and assignments for my students. I found that online assignments were more likely than traditional ones to be completed. I also had my own system making password-protected grades available online. The parents loved it. I began giving some tests online. However, there is a downside to laptop use in class.

Efficient 3D movement-based kernel density estimator and application to wildlife ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tracey-PR, Jeff; Sheppard, James K.; Lockwood, Glenn K.; Chourasia, Amit; Tatineni, Mahidhar; Fisher, Robert N.; Sinkovits, Robert S.

2014-01-01

We describe an efficient implementation of a 3D movement-based kernel density estimator for determining animal space use from discrete GPS measurements. This new method provides more accurate results, particularly for species that make large excursions in the vertical dimension. The downside of this approach is that it is much more computationally expensive than simpler, lower-dimensional models. Through a combination of code restructuring, parallelization and performance optimization, we were able to reduce the time to solution by up to a factor of 1000x, thereby greatly improving the applicability of the method.

Nutrition Risk in Home-Bound Older Adults: Using Dietician-Trained and Supervised Nutrition Volunteers for Screening and Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laforest, Sophie; Goldin, Benita; Nour, Kareen; Roy, Marie-Andree; Payette, Helene

2007-01-01

Nutrition screening and early intervention in home-bound older adults are key to preventing unfavourable health outcomes and functional decline. This pilot study's objectives were (a) to test the reliability of the Elderly Nutrition Screening Tool (ENS [C]) when administered by dietician-trained and supervised nutrition volunteers, and (b) to…

Biodegradation kinetics for pesticide exposure assessment.

PubMed

Wolt, J D; Nelson, H P; Cleveland, C B; van Wesenbeeck, I J

2001-01-01

Understanding pesticide risks requires characterizing pesticide exposure within the environment in a manner that can be broadly generalized across widely varied conditions of use. The coupled processes of sorption and soil degradation are especially important for understanding the potential environmental exposure of pesticides. The data obtained from degradation studies are inherently variable and, when limited in extent, lend uncertainty to exposure characterization and risk assessment. Pesticide decline in soils reflects dynamically coupled processes of sorption and degradation that add complexity to the treatment of soil biodegradation data from a kinetic perspective. Additional complexity arises from study design limitations that may not fully account for the decline in microbial activity of test systems, or that may be inadequate for considerations of all potential dissipation routes for a given pesticide. Accordingly, kinetic treatment of data must accommodate a variety of differing approaches starting with very simple assumptions as to reaction dynamics and extending to more involved treatments if warranted by the available experimental data. Selection of the appropriate kinetic model to describe pesticide degradation should rely on statistical evaluation of the data fit to ensure that the models used are not overparameterized. Recognizing the effects of experimental conditions and methods for kinetic treatment of degradation data is critical for making appropriate comparisons among pesticide biodegradation data sets. Assessment of variability in soil half-life among soils is uncertain because for many pesticides the data on soil degradation rate are limited to one or two soils. Reasonable upper-bound estimates of soil half-life are necessary in risk assessment so that estimated environmental concentrations can be developed from exposure models. Thus, an understanding of the variable and uncertain distribution of soil half-lives in the environment is necessary to estimate bounding values. Statistical evaluation of measures of central tendency for multisoil kinetic studies shows that geometric means better represent the distribution in soil half-lives than do the arithmetic or harmonic means. Estimates of upper-bound soil half-life values based on the upper 90% confidence bound on the geometric mean tend to accurately represent the upper bound when pesticide degradation rate is biologically driven but appear to overestimate the upper bound when there is extensive coupling of biodegradation with sorptive processes. The limited data available comparing distribution in pesticide soil half-lives between multisoil laboratory studies and multilocation field studies suggest that the probability density functions are similar. Thus, upper-bound estimates of pesticide half-life determined from laboratory studies conservatively represent pesticide biodegradation in the field environment for the purposes of exposure and risk assessment. International guidelines and approaches used for interpretations of soil biodegradation reflect many common elements, but differ in how the source and nature of variability in soil kinetic data are considered. Harmonization of approaches for the use of soil biodegradation data will improve the interpretative power of these data for the purposes of exposure and risk assessment.

Potential health risk for residents around a typical e-waste recycling zone via inhalation of size-fractionated particle-bound heavy metals.

PubMed

Huang, Chun-Li; Bao, Lian-Jun; Luo, Pei; Wang, Zhao-Yi; Li, Shao-Meng; Zeng, Eddy Y

2016-11-05

Health risk of residents dwelling around e-waste recycling zones has been a global concern, but has not been adequately examined. The present study was intended to evaluate the potential health risk of residents through inhalation exposure to size-fractionated particle-bound heavy metals in a typical e-waste recycling zone, South China. Anthropogenic metals (Zn, Se, Pb, Sb, As, and Cd) were predominantly enriched in fine particles (Dp<1.8μm), whereas the crustal elements (Ti, Fe, and Co) tended to accumulate in coarse particles (Dp>1.8μm). Although the daily inhalation intakes of the target metals were significantly lower than those through food consumption and ingestion of house dust, the hazard quotients of total metals for adults (95% CI: 1.0-5.5) and children (95% CI: 3.0-17) were greater than 1. Moreover, the incremental lifetime cancer risks of five carcinogenic metals (Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd) for adults and children were 1.3×10(-3) (95% CI: 4.1×10(-4)-3.0×10(-3)) and 3.9×10(-3) (95% CI: 1.3×10(-3)-8.6×10(-3)), respectively, substantially higher than the acceptable cancer risk range of 10(-6)-10(-4). All these findings suggested that health risks were high for local residents dwelling around the e-waste recycling zone through inhalation exposure to particle-bound heavy metals, for both adults and children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing risks to adults and preschool children posed by PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during a biomass burning episode in Northern Thailand.

PubMed

Pongpiachan, Siwatt; Tipmanee, Danai; Khumsup, Chukkapong; Kittikoon, Itthipon; Hirunyatrakul, Phoosak

2015-03-01

To investigate the potential cancer risk resulting from biomass burning, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) bound to fine particles (PM2.5) were assessed in nine administrative northern provinces (NNP) of Thailand, before (N-I) and after (N-II) a haze episode. The average values of Σ 3,4-ring PAHs and B[a] P Equivalent concentrations in world urban cities were significantly (p<0.05) much higher than those in samples collected from northern provinces during both sampling periods. Application of diagnostic binary ratios of PAHs underlined the predominant contribution of vehicular exhaust to PM2.5-bound PAH levels in NNP areas, even in the middle of the agricultural waste burning period. The proximity of N-I and N-II values in three-dimensional (3D) principal component analysis (PCA) plots also supports this conclusion. Although the excess cancer risk in NNP areas is much lower than those of other urban area and industrialized cities, there are nevertheless some concerns relating to adverse health impacts on preschool children due to non-dietary exposure to PAHs in home environments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N.

Here, wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in themore » presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N

Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presencemore » of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Anthropometrics and Body Composition in East African Runners: Potential Impact on Performance.

PubMed

Mooses, Martin; Hackney, Anthony C

2017-04-01

Maximal oxygen uptake (V̇O 2 max), fractional utilization of V̇O 2 max during running, and running economy (RE) are crucial factors for running success for all endurance athletes. Although evidence is limited, investigations of these key factors indicate that East Africans' superiority in distance running is largely due to a unique combination of these factors. East African runners appear to have a very high level of RE most likely associated, at least partly, with anthropometric characteristics rather than with any specific metabolic property of the working muscle. That is, evidence suggest that anthropometrics and body composition might have important parameters as determinants of superior performance of East African distance runners. Regrettably, this role is often overlooked and mentioned as a descriptive parameter rather than an explanatory parameter in many research studies. This brief review article provides an overview of the evidence to support the critical role anthropometrics and body composition has on the distance running success of East African athletes. The structural form and shape of these athletes also has a downside, because having very low BMI or body fat increases the risk for relative energy deficiency in sport (RED-S) conditions in both male and female runners, which can have serious health consequences.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan; Dykes, Katherine; Fleming, Paul; Ning, Andrew

2017-05-01

Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as “wake steering,” in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

DOE PAGES

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N.; ...

2017-06-13

Here, wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in themore » presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

"Creative solutions": selling cigarettes in a smoke-free world

PubMed Central

Smith, E; Malone, R

2004-01-01

Objective: To analyse the development and execution of the "Creative Solutions" Benson & Hedges advertising campaign to understand its social, political, and commercial implications. Methods: Searches of the Philip Morris documents and Legacy Tobacco Documents websites for relevant materials; Lexis/Nexis searches of major news and business publications; and denotative and connotative analyses of the advertising imagery. Results: Philip Morris developed the Creative Solutions campaign in an effort to directly confront the successes of the tobacco control movement in establishing new laws and norms that promoted clean indoor air. The campaign's imagery attempted to help smokers and potential smokers overcome the physical and social downsides of smoking cigarettes by managing risk and resolving internal conflict. The slogans suggested a variety of ways for smokers to respond to restrictions on their habit. The campaign also featured information about the Accommodation Program, Philip Morris's attempt to organise opposition to clean indoor air laws. Conclusion: The campaign was a commercial failure, with little impact on sales of the brand. Philip Morris got some exposure for the Accommodation Program and its anti-regulatory position. The lack of commercial response to the ads suggests that they were unable to successfully resolve the contradictions that smokers were increasingly experiencing and confirms the power of changing social norms to counter tobacco industry tactics. PMID:14985598

The role of private non-profit healthcare organizations in NHS systems: Implications for the Portuguese hospital devolution program.

PubMed

Almeida, Álvaro S

2017-06-01

The national health services (NHS) of England, Portugal, Finland and other single-payer universalist systems financed by general taxation, are based on the theoretical principle of an integrated public sector payer-provider. However, in practice one can find different forms of participation of non-public healthcare providers in those NHS, including private for profit providers, but also third sector non-profit organizations (NPO). This paper reviews the role of non-public non-profit healthcare organizations in NHS systems. By crossing a literature review on privatization of national health services with a literature review on the comparative performance of non-profit and for-profit healthcare organizations, this paper assesses the impact of contracting private non-profit healthcare organizations on the efficiency, quality and responsiveness of services, in public universal health care systems. The results of the review were then compared to the existing evidence on the Portuguese hospital devolution to NPO program. The evidence in this paper suggests that NHS health system reforms that transfer some public-sector hospitals to NPO should deliver improvements to the health system with minimal downside risks. The very limited existing evidence on the Portuguese hospital devolution program suggests it improved efficiency and access, without sacrificing quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric composition and micro-climate in the Alhambra monument, Granada (Spain), in the context of preventive conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horemans, B.; Schalm, O.; De Wael, K.; Cardell, C.; Van Grieken, R.

2012-07-01

The world famous Alhambra monument in Granada, Southern Spain, listed as UNESCO world cultural heritage since 1984, represents probably the most beautiful example of Islamic art and architecture from the Middle Ages in Europe. It is visited by ca. 2 million people annually. Granada is situated in a natural basin, surrounded by mountains with altitudes up to 3500 m. Due to this topography and the prevailing low wind speeds, pollution-derived and especially traffic-derived particulate matter often accumulates in the urban air. In order to evaluate the potential conservation risks from the surrounding air, the atmospheric composition in the Alhambra monument was evaluated. Indoor temperature and relative humidity fluctuations were evaluated for their potential degenerative effects. Furthermore, the atmospheric composition in the Alhambra was analyzed in terms of inorganic gases (NO2, SO2, O3, and NH3) and black carbon. It was found that the open architecture protected the indoor environments from developing a potentially harmful microclimate, such as the build-up of humidity resulting from the huge number of daily tourists. On the downside, the strong ventilation made the indoor air hardly different from outdoor air, as characterized by strong diurnal temperature and relative humidity gradients and high traffic-derived pollutant levels.

Nuclear energy: Between global electricity demand, worldwide decarbonisation imperativeness, and planetary environmental implications.

PubMed

Prăvălie, Remus; Bandoc, Georgeta

2018-03-01

For decades, nuclear energy has been considered an important option for ensuring global energy security, and it has recently started being promoted as a solution for climate change mitigation. However, nuclear power remains highly controversial due to its associated risks - nuclear accidents and problematic radioactive waste management. This review aims to assess the viability of global nuclear energy economically (energy-wise), climatically and environmentally. To this end, the nuclear sector's energy- and climate-related advantages were explored alongside the downsides that mainly relate to radioactive pollution. Economically, it was found that nuclear energy is still an important power source in many countries around the world. Climatically, nuclear power is a low-carbon technology and can therefore be a viable option for the decarbonization of the world's major economies over the following decades, if coupled with other large-scale strategies such as renewable energies. These benefits are however outweighed by the radioactive danger associated to nuclear power plants, either in the context of the nuclear accidents that have already occurred or in that of the large amounts of long-lived nuclear waste that have been growing for decades and that represent a significant environmental and societal threat. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bounding the risk of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station at assembly stages 1J and 1E.

PubMed

Evans, S; Lewis, H; Williamsen, J; Evans, H; Bohl, W

2004-01-01

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been large enough to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight 1J, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight 1E, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte-Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members in the event of a penetration, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures could that reduce R at these stages. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Bounding the risk of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station at assembly stages 1J and 1E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, S.; Lewis, H.; Williamsen, J.; Evans, H.; Bohl, W.

2004-01-01

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been large enough to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight 1J, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight 1E, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte-Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members in the event of a penetration, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures could that reduce R at these stages. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Give one species the task to come up with a theory that spans them all: what good can come out of that?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Does the progress in understanding evolutionary theory depend on the species that is doing the investigation? This question is difficult to answer scientifically, as we are dealing with an n = 1 scenario: every individual who has ever written about evolution is a human being. I will discuss, first, whether we get the correct answer to questions if we begin with ourselves and expand outwards, and second, whether we might fail to ask all the interesting questions unless we combat our tendencies to favour taxa that are close to us. As a whole, the human tendency to understand general biological phenomena via ‘putting oneself in another organism's shoes’ has upsides and downsides. As an upside, our intuitive ability to rethink strategies if the situation changes can lead to ready generation of adaptive hypotheses. Downsides occur if we trust this intuition too much, and particular danger zones exist for traits where humans are an unusual species. I argue that the levels of selection debate might have proceeded differently if human cooperation patterns were not so unique, as this brings about unique challenges in biology teaching; and that theoretical insights regarding inbreeding avoidance versus tolerance could have spread faster if we were not extrapolating our emotional reactions to incest disproportionately depending on whether we study animals or plants. I also discuss patterns such as taxonomic chauvinism, i.e. less attention being paid to species that differ more from human-like life histories. Textbooks on evolution reinforce such biases insofar as they present, as a default case, systems that resemble ours in terms of life cycles and other features (e.g. gonochorism). Additionally, societal norms may have led to incorrect null hypotheses such as females not mating multiply. PMID:29142112

Information technologies for taking into account risks in business development programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalach, A. V.; Khasianov, R. R.; Rossikhina, L. V.; Zybin, D. G.; Melnik, A. A.

2018-05-01

The paper describes the information technologies for taking into account risks in business development programme, which rely on the algorithm for assessment of programme project risks and the algorithm of programme forming with constrained financing of high-risk projects taken into account. A method of lower-bound estimate is suggested for subsets of solutions. The corresponding theorem and lemma and their proofs are given.

Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements

DOE PAGES

Jeon, Soyoung; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F.

2016-02-16

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) or the risk ratio (RR) and associated confidence intervals. Many such analyses use climate model output to characterize extreme event behavior with and without anthropogenic influence. However, such climate models may have biases in their representation of extreme events. To account for discrepancies in the probabilities of extreme events between observational datasets and model datasets, we demonstrate an appropriate rescaling of the model output basedmore » on the quantiles of the datasets to estimate an adjusted risk ratio. Our methodology accounts for various components of uncertainty in estimation of the risk ratio. In particular, we present an approach to construct a one-sided confidence interval on the lower bound of the risk ratio when the estimated risk ratio is infinity. We demonstrate the methodology using the summer 2011 central US heatwave and output from the Community Earth System Model. In this example, we find that the lower bound of the risk ratio is relatively insensitive to the magnitude and probability of the actual event.« less

PM2.5-bound PAHs in three indoor and one outdoor air in Beijing: Concentration, source and health risk assessment.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Li, Xinghua; Zhu, Tianle; Han, Yingjie; Lv, Dong

2017-05-15

Three indoor (residential home, dormitory, and office) and one outdoor concentrations of PM 2.5 -bound Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analyzed in Beijing across four seasons. The highest and lowest concentration of total PAHs for outdoor appeared in winter and in summer with averages of 200.1 and 9.1ng/m 3 respectively. The seasonal variations of total PAHs in three indoor sites were the same as outdoor. The correlation analysis between the indoor and outdoor samples showed that the annual mean I/O ratios of total PAHs in the three sites were lower than 1. Source apportionment showed vehicle exhaust, coal combustion, and biomass burning were the major contributors of indoor and outdoor PM 2.5 -bound PAHs. Indoor source, such as camphor pollution, was identified in the dormitory, while camphor pollution and cooking sources were identified in the residential home. The annual averages of Benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentration (BaP eq ) were 7.6, 7.8, 7.7 and 12.7ng/m 3 for the dormitory, office, residential home and outdoor samples respectively, far higher than the annual limit of 1ng/m 3 regulated by European Commission. Life lung cancer risk (LLCR) in four sites across four seasons were over the acceptable cancer risk level, showing the cancer risk were at a high level in both indoor and outdoor sites in Beijing, and its level in indoor sites was much lower than in the outdoor site. The health risk assessment indicated the level of PAHs cancer risk on human for three indoor sites were similar. The results call for the development of more stringent control measures to reduce PAHs emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adoption of alternative financing strategies to increase the diffusion of picture archiving and communication systems into the radiology marketplace.

PubMed

Reiner, B; Siegel, E; McKay, P

2000-05-01

The objective of the study was to evaluate current marketplace conditions and strategies employed by major picture archiving and communication systems (PACS) vendors in the creation of alternative financing strategies, to enhance the diffusion of filmless imaging. Data were collected from the major PACS vendors in the forms of survey questionnaires and review of existing leases. Topics evaluated in the survey included current financing options available, foreseeable changes in PACS financing, role of third-party financiers, and creation of risk-sharing arrangements. Generic leases were also reviewed evaluating the presence or absence of several key variables including technology obsolescence protection, hardware/software upgrades, end-of-term options, determination of fair market value, functionality/acceptance testing, uptime guarantees, and workflow management consulting. Eight of the 10 PACS vendors surveyed participated in the data collection. The vast majority of current PACS implementations (60% to 90%) occur through direct purchase, with conventional leasing (operating or capital) accounting for only 5% to 30% of PACS installations. The majority of respondents view fee-for-lease arrangements and other forms of risk sharing as increasing importance for future PACS financing. The specific targets for such risk-sharing arrangements consist of small hospital and privately owned imaging centers. Leases currently offered range in duration from 3 to 5 years and frequently offer technology obsolescence protection with upgrades, multiple end-of-term options, and some form of acceptance testing. A number of important variables frequently omitted from leases include uptime guarantees, flexibility in changing financing or vendors, and incorporation of expected productivity/operational efficiency gains. As vendors strive to increase the penetration of PACS into the radiology marketplace, there will be a shift from conventional financing (loan or purchase) to leasing. Fee-for-use leasing and other forms of risk sharing have the greatest potential in smaller hospitals, which do not have the financial resources to pursue conventional financing options. Potential PACS customers must be cautious when entering into these alternative financing strategies, to ensure that appropriate safeguards are incorporated, in order to minimize downside risk.

Better Jobs or Working Longer for Less: An Evaluation of the Research of Marvin Kosters and Murray Ross on the Quality of Jobs. [with] There They Go Again: Comments on "The Quality of Jobs: Evidence from Distributions of Annual Earnings and Hourly Wages" by Kosters and Ross (July 1988). Working Paper No. 101.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mishel, Lawrence

Although nearly 14 million jobs have been added to the economy since 1979, there is strong evidence that job expansion has been purchased at the price of lower wages. A number of studies have confirmed this downside to job creation, the most prominent being a 1986 study by Bluestone and Harrison for the Joint Economic Committee. A recent study…

“First Things First”: What is the First Thing?

PubMed Central

Sussman, Steve; Forster, Myriam; Grigsby, Timothy

2016-01-01

This OP-ED piece comments on the down-side of an otherwise useful 12-step slogan, “First Things First,” which generally refers to staying sober (not drinking or using no matter what). While important, there are environmental, micro-social, psychiatric, and neurobiological considerations that may place other needs at an equal or higher priority than sobriety per se. That is, other changes may be needed to set the stage for, or enhance efforts at sobriety, prior to or concurrent with attempting to quit one's drug of choice. Perhaps slogans should be considered in a broader context and not be taken too literally. PMID:25774990

[Particle disease. Is tribology a topic in revision surgery?].

PubMed

Elke, R

2001-05-01

To improve the longevity of endoprostheses, the main goal is to reduce wear. Polyethylene together with metal or ceramic is currently the most frequently used combination. Their clinical success is well documented in the literature. Many attempts to improve polyethylene in the past have failed. Materials successful in the laboratory have failed in clinical use. The most recent competitors of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) are the highly cross-linked polyethylenes (HCLPE) and the hard-on-hard couplings such as metal-on-metal or ceramic-on-ceramic. Advantages and downsides regarding particle generation and higher standards of precision in positioning the components are discussed.

Protein function prediction--the power of multiplicity.

PubMed

Rentzsch, Robert; Orengo, Christine A

2009-04-01

Advances in experimental and computational methods have quietly ushered in a new era in protein function annotation. This 'age of multiplicity' is marked by the notion that only the use of multiple tools, multiple evidence and considering the multiple aspects of function can give us the broad picture that 21st century biology will need to link and alter micro- and macroscopic phenotypes. It might also help us to undo past mistakes by removing errors from our databases and prevent us from producing more. On the downside, multiplicity is often confusing. We therefore systematically review methods and resources for automated protein function prediction, looking at individual (biochemical) and contextual (network) functions, respectively.

Downsides of an overly context-sensitive self: implications from the culture and subjective well-being research.

PubMed

Suh, Eunkook M

2007-12-01

The self becomes context sensitive in service of the need to belong. When it comes to achieving personal happiness, an identity system that derives its worth and meaning excessively from its social context puts itself in a significantly disadvantageous position. This article integrates empirical findings and ideas from the self, subjective well-being, and cross-cultural literature and tries to offer insights to why East Asian cultural members report surprisingly low levels of happiness. The various cognitive, motivational, behavioral, and affective characteristics of the overly relation-oriented self are discussed as potential explanations. Implications for the study of self and culture are offered.

Counselors' Perspectives of Positive Psychology for the Treatment of Addiction: A Mixed Methods Pilot Study.

PubMed

Krentzman, Amy R; Barker, Stacey L

2016-01-01

Little is known about the use of positive psychology interventions (PPI) in addictions treatment. Questionnaires and interviews with alcohol and substance use disorder counselors explored theories of how PPIs might work, the degree to which they are used, and downsides. Results suggested that positive and pathology-based themes were attended in equal proportion, that substance abuse treatment should help clients develop a good life in recovery; that counselors already use PPI; and that PPI might counter negative cognitions and affect. Reservations for using PPI included relying on PPI exclusively and employing PPI indiscriminately without regard to client characteristics.

Counselors’ Perspectives of Positive Psychology for the Treatment of Addiction: A Mixed Methods Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Krentzman, Amy R.; Barker, Stacey L.

2016-01-01

Little is known about the use of positive psychology interventions (PPI) in addictions treatment. Questionnaires and interviews with alcohol and substance use disorder counselors explored theories of how PPIs might work, the degree to which they are used, and downsides. Results suggested that positive and pathology-based themes were attended in equal proportion, that substance abuse treatment should help clients develop a good life in recovery; that counselors already use PPI; and that PPI might counter negative cognitions and affect. Reservations for using PPI included relying on PPI exclusively and employing PPI indiscriminately without regard to client characteristics. PMID:27980355

EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

2000-05-01

Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

The linearized multistage model and the future of quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Crump, K S

1996-10-01

The linearized multistage (LMS) model has for over 15 years been the default dose-response model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and other federal and state regulatory agencies in the United States for calculating quantitative estimates of low-dose carcinogenic risks from animal data. The LMS model is in essence a flexible statistical model that can describe both linear and non-linear dose-response patterns, and that produces an upper confidence bound on the linear low-dose slope of the dose-response curve. Unlike its namesake, the Armitage-Doll multistage model, the parameters of the LMS do not correspond to actual physiological phenomena. Thus the LMS is 'biological' only to the extent that the true biological dose response is linear at low dose and that low-dose slope is reflected in the experimental data. If the true dose response is non-linear the LMS upper bound may overestimate the true risk by many orders of magnitude. However, competing low-dose extrapolation models, including those derived from 'biologically-based models' that are capable of incorporating additional biological information, have not shown evidence to date of being able to produce quantitative estimates of low-dose risks that are any more accurate than those obtained from the LMS model. Further, even if these attempts were successful, the extent to which more accurate estimates of low-dose risks in a test animal species would translate into improved estimates of human risk is questionable. Thus, it does not appear possible at present to develop a quantitative approach that would be generally applicable and that would offer significant improvements upon the crude bounding estimates of the type provided by the LMS model. Draft USEPA guidelines for cancer risk assessment incorporate an approach similar to the LMS for carcinogens having a linear mode of action. However, under these guidelines quantitative estimates of low-dose risks would not be developed for carcinogens having a non-linear mode of action; instead dose-response modelling would be used in the experimental range to calculate an LED10* (a statistical lower bound on the dose corresponding to a 10% increase in risk), and safety factors would be applied to the LED10* to determine acceptable exposure levels for humans. This approach is very similar to the one presently used by USEPA for non-carcinogens. Rather than using one approach for carcinogens believed to have a linear mode of action and a different approach for all other health effects, it is suggested herein that it would be more appropriate to use an approach conceptually similar to the 'LED10*-safety factor' approach for all health effects, and not to routinely develop quantitative risk estimates from animal data.

Exposure to dust-bound PAHs and associated carcinogenic risk in primitive and traditional cooking practices in Pakistan.

PubMed

Kamal, Atif; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Martellini, Tania; Cincinelli, Alessandra

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine the abundance and distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in dust samples collected from the selected professional cooking workplaces (WCs) and residential household cooking areas (WRs), where traditional and primitive cooking practices are still prevelent. Another aim of this study was to investigate the carcinogenic risk for Pakistani human exposure to dust-bound PAHs via the routes of inhalation, ingestion, and dermal contact. Generally, the concentration of individual congeners of PAHs in surface dust samples of WC sites was higher than those measured in WR sites (p < 0.05). The benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P), a very high carcinogenic compound, was present in the dust samples from WC sites in the highest mean concentration (630 ng g(-1) dry weight (d.w.)). The BaP mean concentration in WC workplaces was almost eight times higher than the mean value found in WR exposure sites. Moreover, the average concentration of ∑PAHs, combustion origin PAHs (∑COMB) and sum total of 7-carcinogenic PAHs (∑7-carcinogens) were also significantly higher in WC dusts samples than that in WR workplaces. Principal component analysis (PCA) and diagnostic ratios suggested coal/wood combustion as major PAH emission sources in both exposure sites. The average incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) suggested a moderate to potential high cancer risk for adults and children exposed to dust-bound PAHs in both exposure sites, in particular via both dermal and ingestion contact pathways.

[Effects of Low-Molecular-Weight Organic Acids on the Speciation of Pb in Purple Soil and Soil Solution].

PubMed

Liu, Jiang; Jiang, Tao; Huang, Rong; Zhang, Jin-zhong; Chen, Hong

2016-04-15

Lead (Pb) in purple soil was selected as the research target, using one-step extraction method with 0.01 mol · L⁻¹ sodium nitrate as the background electrolyte to study the release effect of citric acid (CA), tartaric acid (TA) and acetic acid (AC) with different concentrations. Sequential extraction and geochemical model (Visual Minteq v3.0) were applied to analyze and predict the speciation of Pb in soil solid phase and soil solution phase. Then the ebvironmental implications and risks of low-molecule weight organic acid (LMWOA) on soil Pb were analyzed. The results indicated that all three types of LMWOA increased the desorption capacity of Pb in purple soil, and the effect followed the descending order of CA > TA > AC. After the action of LMWOAs, the exchangeable Pb increased; the carbonate-bound Pb and Fe-Mn oxide bound Pb dropped in soil solid phase. Organic bound Pb was the main speciation in soil solution phase, accounting for 45.16%-75.05%. The following speciation of Pb in soil solution was free Pb, accounting for 22.71%-50.25%. For CA and TA treatments, free Pb ions and inorganic bound Pb in soil solution increased with increasing LMWOAs concentration, while organic bound Pb suffered a decrease in this process. An opposite trend for AC treatment was observed compared with CA and TA treatments. Overall, LMWOAs boosted the bioavailability of Pb in purple soil and had a potential risk to contaminate underground water. Among the three LMWOAs in this study, CA had the largest potential to activate soil Pb.

Repeated holdout Cross-Validation of Model to Estimate Risk of Lyme Disease by Landscape Attributes

EPA Science Inventory

We previously modeled Lyme disease (LD) risk at the landscape scale; here we evaluate the model's overall goodness-of-fit using holdout validation. Landscapes were characterized within road-bounded analysis units (AU). Observed LD cases (obsLD) were ascertained per AU. Data were ...

Health risk represented by inhaling polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) during daily commuting involving using a high traffic flow route in Bogotá.

PubMed

Pachón, Jorge E; Sarmiento, Hugo; Hoshiko, Tomomi

2013-01-01

Assessing the risk to health by inhaling particles and particle-bound PAH during daily commuting along a high traffic flow route/corridor in Bogotá. A van was equipped with a PAS2000 photo-electric sensor for real-time measurement of particle-bound PAH and a Dust Trakfor monitoring PM10 concentration; it drove along typical commuting routes in the city. Exposure to particles and particle-bound PAH was assessed by using an inhalation intake model. A similar trend was observed for both PM10 and PAH concentration, indicating that traffic was the same source for both contaminants. Extreme PM10 and PAH inhalation concentrations were recorded every time direct bus and microbus emissions were measured by the van. Inhalation model results indicated that exposure was significantly greater when using a venues having mixed traffic use (i.e. buses, microbuses, passenger vehicles, motorcycles) compared to using roads where the TransMilenio system (articulated buses) had been implemented. The results may support evaluating bus drivers, commuters and bike users' exposure to toxic compounds in the city.

Gene panel sequencing in familial breast/ovarian cancer patients identifies multiple novel mutations also in genes others than BRCA1/2.

PubMed

Kraus, Cornelia; Hoyer, Juliane; Vasileiou, Georgia; Wunderle, Marius; Lux, Michael P; Fasching, Peter A; Krumbiegel, Mandy; Uebe, Steffen; Reuter, Miriam; Beckmann, Matthias W; Reis, André

2017-01-01

Breast and ovarian cancer (BC/OC) predisposition has been attributed to a number of high- and moderate to low-penetrance susceptibility genes. With the advent of next generation sequencing (NGS) simultaneous testing of these genes has become feasible. In this monocentric study, we report results of panel-based screening of 14 BC/OC susceptibility genes (BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D, CHEK2, PALB2, ATM, NBN, CDH1, TP53, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2) in a group of 581 consecutive individuals from a German population with BC and/or OC fulfilling diagnostic criteria for BRCA1 and BRCA2 testing including 179 with a triple-negative tumor. Altogether we identified 106 deleterious mutations in 105 (18%) patients in 10 different genes, including seven different exon deletions. Of these 106 mutations, 16 (15%) were novel and only six were found in BRCA1/2. To further characterize mutations located in or nearby splicing consensus sites we performed RT-PCR analysis which allowed confirmation of pathogenicity in 7 of 9 mutations analyzed. In PALB2, we identified a deleterious variant in six cases. All but one were associated with early onset BC and a positive family history indicating that penetrance for PALB2 mutations is comparable to BRCA2. Overall, extended testing beyond BRCA1/2 identified a deleterious mutation in further 6% of patients. As a downside, 89 variants of uncertain significance were identified highlighting the need for comprehensive variant databases. In conclusion, panel testing yields more accurate information on genetic cancer risk than assessing BRCA1/2 alone and wide-spread testing will help improve penetrance assessment of variants in these risk genes. © 2016 UICC.

Balance and gait in older electroconvulsive therapy recipients: a pilot study

PubMed Central

Plakiotis, Chris; Barson, Fay; Vengadasalam, Bharathi; Haines, Terry P; O’Connor, Daniel W

2013-01-01

Background Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is commonly used to treat depression in older adults. Despite its efficacy in this regard, an associated increase in the risk of falls in this population is a downside of treatment. ECT research has focused on the incidence of falls, but its effect on balance and gait – intrinsic factors in instability and falls – has not been studied. Our aim was to examine changes in balance and gait among older adults before and after a single ECT session and explore the effect of patient-related and treatment factors on any changes found. Methods Participants were 21 older adults requiring ECT for depression in public psychiatric services. Patients with clinically overt mobility problems (impairing test participation or increasing the risk of falls) were excluded. Balance and gait testing 1 hour pre-ECT and 1, 2 and 3 hours post-ECT included: (1) steady standing test; (2) perturbation of standing balance by self-initiated movements; (3) perturbation of standing balance by an external perturbation; and (4) timed up and go test. Results No deterioration in test performance was found, using one-way repeated measures analysis of variance. Conclusion Balance and gait did not deteriorate immediately after ECT. Exclusion of participants with clinically overt mobility problems and falls being better attributable to factors unrelated to balance and gait (such as post-ECT confusion) may account for our findings. This research does not repudiate the occurrence of ECT-related falls but calls into question the utility of introducing routine balance and gait assessment among older ECT recipients without pre-existing mobility problems as a means of preventing them. PMID:23766650

Hip arthroplasty today and tomorrow.

PubMed

Amstutz, H C

1987-12-01

Acrylic-fixed total hip and surface replacement arthroplasty have been very effective in affording immediate relief of pain and providing improved function. Complications have been reduced by improvements in design, materials, and especially technique. They are now very low in the elderly, and the stem type acrylic-fixed design remains the procedure of choice. The failure rates in youthful patients and those with bone-stock deficiencies have been high in both THR and surface types, although the latter had the advantage of preserving femoral stock. On the femoral side, the new "macro" femoral designs from Europe and "micro" femoral porous designs have shown promise, but thigh pain, incomplete and difficult to predict bone ingrowth patterns, coupled with removal problems have influenced design and technique changes. Both press-fit stem types and porous surface replacements have produced promising initial results with less potential downside risks. On the acetabular side, both the cementless hemispherical with screw-type adjuvant fixation, or the chamfered cylinder designs, used primarily with the UCLA porous surface replacements, but also with stem-type devices, appear to achieve best short-term results, while the entire variety of screw rings are disappointing. The future will bring further refinements in technique and specific indications for certain types of replacement stem in specific types of bone stock deficiencies. The all ceramic-ceramic and ceramic-polyethylene bearings show promise of reducing wear and, hence, should improve longevity of implant fixation.

Hiking with DiabetesRisks and Benefits.

PubMed

Jenkins, David W; Jenks, Alexander

2017-09-01

Exercise is highly beneficial for persons with diabetes. Similar to many other patients, those with diabetes may be reluctant to exercise given a lack of motivation and proper instruction regarding an exercise prescription. In general, medical providers are poorly equipped to develop an exercise prescription and furnish motivation. Attempts to find activities that not only provide effective aerobic challenges but also are enjoyable to participate in are fraught with difficulty. Hiking as a potential option for a safe and enjoyable activity is discussed, including the possible downsides. Multiple publications were reviewed using key words. A review of the literature uncovered limited publications or controlled trials that discussed the use of hiking per se as an activity for the management of diabetes. Newer studies reviewing weightbearing exercise and diabetic polyneuropathy and those discussing the advantages of trekking poles for balance and proprioception are cited in support of the recommendation for hiking as an activity for those with diabetes. Exercise has been shown to substantially benefit individuals with diabetes, but convincing patients with diabetes to exercise is daunting. Hiking, unlike other, more tedious exercise programs, may be an exercise option that persons with diabetes might find enjoyable. Hiking may encourage balance training and reduced ground reaction forces. These benefits may be augmented by trekking poles, which may likewise counter the concerns of the uneven surfaces that present challenges to the hiker with diabetes.

Capacity planning in a transitional economy: What issues? Which models?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mubayi, V.; Leigh, R.W.; Bright, R.N.

1996-03-01

This paper is devoted to an exploration of the important issues facing the Russian power generation system and its evolution in the foreseeable future and the kinds of modeling approaches that capture those issues. These issues include, for example, (1) trade-offs between investments in upgrading and refurbishment of existing thermal (fossil-fired) capacity and safety enhancements in existing nuclear capacity versus investment in new capacity, (2) trade-offs between investment in completing unfinished (under construction) projects based on their original design versus investment in new capacity with improved design, (3) incorporation of demand-side management options (investments in enhancing end-use efficiency, for example)more » within the planning framework, (4) consideration of the spatial dimensions of system planning including investments in upgrading electric transmission networks or fuel shipment networks and incorporating hydroelectric generation, (5) incorporation of environmental constraints and (6) assessment of uncertainty and evaluation of downside risk. Models for exploring these issues include low power shutdown (LPS) which are computationally very efficient, though approximate, and can be used to perform extensive sensitivity analyses to more complex models which can provide more detailed answers but are computationally cumbersome and can only deal with limited issues. The paper discusses which models can usefully treat a wide range of issues within the priorities facing decision makers in the Russian power sector and integrate the results with investment decisions in the wider economy.« less

Risk-Constrained Dynamic Programming for Optimal Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Kuwata, Yoshiaki

2013-01-01

A chance-constrained dynamic programming algorithm was developed that is capable of making optimal sequential decisions within a user-specified risk bound. This work handles stochastic uncertainties over multiple stages in the CEMAT (Combined EDL-Mobility Analyses Tool) framework. It was demonstrated by a simulation of Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) using real landscape data obtained from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Although standard dynamic programming (DP) provides a general framework for optimal sequential decisionmaking under uncertainty, it typically achieves risk aversion by imposing an arbitrary penalty on failure states. Such a penalty-based approach cannot explicitly bound the probability of mission failure. A key idea behind the new approach is called risk allocation, which decomposes a joint chance constraint into a set of individual chance constraints and distributes risk over them. The joint chance constraint was reformulated into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of an indicator function, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the chance-constraint optimization problem can be turned into an unconstrained optimization over a Lagrangian, which can be solved efficiently using a standard DP approach.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrei, Mariana Lucia, E-mail: marianaluciaandrei@yahoo.com; Babes-Bolyai University, Environmental Science and Engineering Faculty, 30 Fantanele, 400294, Cluj-Napoca; Senila, Marin

The Cu and Pb partitioning in nonferrous mine tailings was investigated using the Tessier sequential extraction scheme. The contents of Cu and Pb found in the five operationally defined fractions were determined by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The results showed different partitioning patterns for Cu and Pb in the studied tailings. The total Cu and Pb contents were higher in tailings from Brazesti than in those from Saliste, while the Cu contents in the first two fractions considered as mobile were comparable and the content of mobile Pb was the highest in Brazesti tailings. In the tailings frommore » Saliste about 30% of Cu and 3% of Pb were found in exchangeable fraction, while in those from Brazesti no metals were found in the exchangeable fraction, but the percent of Cu and Pb found in the bound to carbonate fraction were high (20% and 26%, respectively). The highest Pb content was found in the residual fraction in Saliste tailings and in bound to Fe and Mn oxides fraction in Brazesti tailings, while the highest Cu content was found in the fraction bound to organic matter in Saliste tailings and in the residual fraction in Brazesti tailings. In case of tailings of Brazesti medium environmental risk was found both for Pb and Cu, while in case of Saliste tailings low risk for Pb and high risk for Cu were found.« less

Fluid mechanics of electroosmotic flow and its effect on band broadening in capillary electrophoresis.

PubMed

Ghosal, Sandip

2004-01-01

Electroosmotic flow (EOF) usually accompanies electrophoretic migration of charged species in capillary electrophoresis unless special precautions are taken to suppress it. The presence of the EOF provides certain advantages in separations. It is an alternative to mechanical pumps, which are inefficient and difficult to build at small scales, for transporting reagents and analytes on microfluidic chips. The downside is that any imperfection that distorts the EOF profile reduces the separation efficiency. In this paper, the basic facts about EOF are reviewed from the perspective of fluid mechanics and its effect on separations in free solution capillary zone electrophoresis is discussed in the light of recent advances.

Optimal Solution for an Engineering Applications Using Modified Artificial Immune System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padmanabhan, S.; Chandrasekaran, M.; Ganesan, S.; patan, Mahamed Naveed Khan; Navakanth, Polina

2017-03-01

An Engineering optimization leads a essential role in several engineering application areas like process design, product design, re-engineering and new product development, etc. In engineering, an awfully best answer is achieved by comparison to some completely different solutions by utilization previous downside information. An optimization algorithms provide systematic associate degreed economical ways that within which of constructing and comparison new design solutions so on understand at best vogue, thus on best solution efficiency and acquire the foremost wonderful design impact. In this paper, a new evolutionary based Modified Artificial Immune System (MAIS) algorithm used to optimize an engineering application of gear drive design. The results are compared with existing design.

Caregivers as money managers for adults with severe mental illness: how treatment providers can help.

PubMed

Elbogen, Eric B; Wilder, Christine; Swartz, Marvin S; Swanson, Jeffrey W

2008-01-01

To review the prevalence, benefits, and problems associated with families who, either informally or formally as representative payees, manage money for adults with severe mental illness. Based on empirical research and clinical cases, suggestions are offered for minimizing downsides and capitalizing upon benefits of family money management. The findings and case vignettes demonstrate four specific strategies for treatment providers: facilitating collaboration, increasing knowledge about disability funds, improving money-management skills, and developing plans for financial decision-making. By following these recommendations and becoming aware of whether their clients had family money managers, clinicians can promote independent functioning and family support for a substantial number of people with severe mental illness.

Water pollution risk associated with natural gas extraction from the Marcellus Shale.

PubMed

Rozell, Daniel J; Reaven, Sheldon J

2012-08-01

In recent years, shale gas formations have become economically viable through the use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. These techniques carry potential environmental risk due to their high water use and substantial risk for water pollution. Using probability bounds analysis, we assessed the likelihood of water contamination from natural gas extraction in the Marcellus Shale. Probability bounds analysis is well suited when data are sparse and parameters highly uncertain. The study model identified five pathways of water contamination: transportation spills, well casing leaks, leaks through fractured rock, drilling site discharge, and wastewater disposal. Probability boxes were generated for each pathway. The potential contamination risk and epistemic uncertainty associated with hydraulic fracturing wastewater disposal was several orders of magnitude larger than the other pathways. Even in a best-case scenario, it was very likely that an individual well would release at least 200 m³ of contaminated fluids. Because the total number of wells in the Marcellus Shale region could range into the tens of thousands, this substantial potential risk suggested that additional steps be taken to reduce the potential for contaminated fluid leaks. To reduce the considerable epistemic uncertainty, more data should be collected on the ability of industrial and municipal wastewater treatment facilities to remove contaminants from used hydraulic fracturing fluid. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Worldwide Regulations of Standard Values of Pesticides for Human Health Risk Control: A Review.

PubMed

Li, Zijian; Jennings, Aaron

2017-07-22

Abstract : The impact of pesticide residues on human health is a worldwide problem, as human exposure to pesticides can occur through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Regulatory jurisdictions have promulgated the standard values for pesticides in residential soil, air, drinking water, and agricultural commodity for years. Until now, more than 19,400 pesticide soil regulatory guidance values (RGVs) and 5400 pesticide drinking water maximum concentration levels (MCLs) have been regulated by 54 and 102 nations, respectively. Over 90 nations have provided pesticide agricultural commodity maximum residue limits (MRLs) for at least one of the 12 most commonly consumed agricultural foods. A total of 22 pesticides have been regulated with more than 100 soil RGVs, and 25 pesticides have more than 100 drinking water MCLs. This research indicates that those RGVs and MCLs for an individual pesticide could vary over seven (DDT drinking water MCLs), eight (Lindane soil RGVs), or even nine (Dieldrin soil RGVs) orders of magnitude. Human health risk uncertainty bounds and the implied total exposure mass burden model were applied to analyze the most commonly regulated and used pesticides for human health risk control. For the top 27 commonly regulated pesticides in soil, there are at least 300 RGVs (8% of the total) that are above all of the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty. For the top 29 most-commonly regulated pesticides in drinking water, at least 172 drinking water MCLs (5% of the total) exceed the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty; while for the 14 most widely used pesticides, there are at least 310 computed implied dose limits (28.0% of the total) that are above the acceptable daily intake values. The results show that some worldwide standard values were not derived conservatively enough to avoid human health risk by the pesticides, and that some values were not computed comprehensively by considering all major human exposure pathways.

Worldwide Regulations of Standard Values of Pesticides for Human Health Risk Control: A Review

PubMed Central

Jennings, Aaron

2017-01-01

The impact of pesticide residues on human health is a worldwide problem, as human exposure to pesticides can occur through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Regulatory jurisdictions have promulgated the standard values for pesticides in residential soil, air, drinking water, and agricultural commodity for years. Until now, more than 19,400 pesticide soil regulatory guidance values (RGVs) and 5400 pesticide drinking water maximum concentration levels (MCLs) have been regulated by 54 and 102 nations, respectively. Over 90 nations have provided pesticide agricultural commodity maximum residue limits (MRLs) for at least one of the 12 most commonly consumed agricultural foods. A total of 22 pesticides have been regulated with more than 100 soil RGVs, and 25 pesticides have more than 100 drinking water MCLs. This research indicates that those RGVs and MCLs for an individual pesticide could vary over seven (DDT drinking water MCLs), eight (Lindane soil RGVs), or even nine (Dieldrin soil RGVs) orders of magnitude. Human health risk uncertainty bounds and the implied total exposure mass burden model were applied to analyze the most commonly regulated and used pesticides for human health risk control. For the top 27 commonly regulated pesticides in soil, there are at least 300 RGVs (8% of the total) that are above all of the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty. For the top 29 most-commonly regulated pesticides in drinking water, at least 172 drinking water MCLs (5% of the total) exceed the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty; while for the 14 most widely used pesticides, there are at least 310 computed implied dose limits (28.0% of the total) that are above the acceptable daily intake values. The results show that some worldwide standard values were not derived conservatively enough to avoid human health risk by the pesticides, and that some values were not computed comprehensively by considering all major human exposure pathways. PMID:28737697

Cumulative health risk assessment of halogenated and parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons associated with particulate matters in urban air.

PubMed

Sun, Jian-Lin; Jing, Xin; Chang, Wen-Jing; Chen, Zheng-Xia; Zeng, Hui

2015-03-01

Halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HPAHs) have been reported to occur widely in urban air. Nevertheless, knowledge about the human health risk associated with inhalation exposure to HPAHs is scarce so far. In the present study, nine HPAHs and 16 PAHs were determined in atmospheric particulate matter (PM) collected from Shenzhen, China to address this issue. Concentrations of Σ9HPAHs varied from 0.1 to 1.5 ng/m(3) and from 0.09 to 0.4 ng/m(3) in PM10 and PM2.5 samples, respectively. As for individuals, 9-bromoanthracene, 7-bromobenz(a)anthracene, and 9,10-dibromoanthracene were the dominant congeners. Levels of Σ16PAHs in PM10 and PM2.5 samples ranged from 3.2 to 81 ng/m(3) and from 2.8 to 85 ng/m(3), respectively. Among individual PAHs, chrysene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, and indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene were the main congeners. According to the season, concentrations of HPAHs and PAHs in atmospheric PM10/PM2.5 samples show a similar decreasing trend with an order: winter>autumn>spring>summer. The daily intake (DI) of PM10/PM2.5-bound HPAHs and PAHs were estimated. Our results indicated that children have the highest DI levels via inhalation exposure. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) induced by PM10/PM2.5-bound HPAHs and PAHs were calculated. The ILCR values showed a similar decreasing trend with an order: adults>children>seniors>adolescent. Overall, the ILCR values induced by HPAHs and PAHs were far below the priority risk level (10(-4)), indicating no obvious cancer risk. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the human health risk associated with inhalation exposure to PM10/PM2.5-bound HPAHs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A screening-level assessment of the health risks of chronic smoke exposure for wildland firefighters.

PubMed

Booze, Thomas F; Reinhardt, Timothy E; Quiring, Sharon J; Ottmar, Roger D

2004-05-01

A screening health risk assessment was performed to assess the upper-bound risks of cancer and noncancer adverse health effects among wildland firefighters performing wildfire suppression and prescribed burn management. Of the hundreds of chemicals in wildland fire smoke, we identified 15 substances of potential concern from the standpoints of concentration and toxicology; these included aldehydes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, benzene, and respirable particulate matter. Data defining daily exposures to smoke at prescribed burns and wildfires, potential days of exposure in a year, and career lengths were used to estimate average and reasonable maximum career inhalation exposures to these substances. Of the 15 substances in smoke that were evaluated, only benzene and formaldehyde posed a cancer risk greater than 1 per million, while only acrolein and respirable particulate matter exposures resulted in hazard indices greater than 1.0. The estimated upper-bound cancer risks ranged from 1.4 to 220 excess cancers per million, and noncancer hazard indices ranged from 9 to 360, depending on the exposure group. These values only indicate the likelihood of adverse health effects, not whether they will or will not occur. The risk assessment process narrows the field of substances that deserve further assessment, and the hazards identified by risk assessment generally agree with those identified as a concern in occupational exposure assessments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

PIEPHO, M.G.

Four bounding accidents postulated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing a hydrogen explosion, and a fire breaching filter vessel and enclosure. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

Anomalous Diffusion Approximation of Risk Processes in Operational Risk of Non-Financial Corporations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdziarz, M.; Mista, P.; Weron, A.

2007-05-01

We introduce an approximation of the risk processes by anomalous diffusion. In the paper we consider the case, where the waiting times between successive occurrences of the claims belong to the domain of attraction of alpha -stable distribution. The relationship between the obtained approximation and the celebrated fractional diffusion equation is emphasised. We also establish upper bounds for the ruin probability in the considered model and give some numerical examples.

Media reporting on research presented at scientific meetings: more caution needed.

PubMed

Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M

2006-06-05

To examine media stories on research presented at scientific meetings to see if they reported basic study facts and cautions, and whether they were clear about the preliminary stage of the research. Three physicians with clinical epidemiology training analysed front-page newspaper stories (n = 32), other newspaper stories (n = 142), and television/radio stories (n = 13) identified in LexisNexis and ProQuest searches for research reports from five scientific meetings in 2002-2003 (American Heart Association, 14th Annual International AIDS Conference, American Society of Clinical Oncology, Society for Neuroscience, and the Radiological Society of North America). Media reporting of basic study facts (size, design, quantification of results); cautions about study designs with intrinsic limitations (animal/laboratory studies, studies with < 30 people, uncontrolled studies, controlled but not randomised studies) or downsides (adverse effects in intervention studies); warnings about the preliminary stage of the research presented at scientific meetings. 34% of the 187 stories did not mention study size, 18% did not mention study design (another 35% were so ambiguous that expert readers had to guess the design), and 40% did not quantify the main result. Only 6% of news stories about animal studies mentioned their limited relevance to human health; 21% of stories about small studies noted problems with the precision of the finding; 10% of stories about uncontrolled studies noted it was not possible to know if the outcome really related to the exposure; and 19% of stories about controlled but not randomised studies raised the possibility of confounding. Only 29% of the 142 news stories on intervention studies noted the possibility of any potential downside. Twelve stories mentioned a corresponding "in press" medical journal article; two of the remaining 175 noted that findings were unpublished, might not have undergone peer review, or might change. News stories about scientific meeting research presentations often omit basic study facts and cautions. Consequently, the public may be misled about the validity and relevance of the science presented.

Variations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air during haze and non-haze episodes in warm seasons in Hangzhou, China.

PubMed

Lu, Hao; Wang, Shengsheng; Wu, Zuliang; Yao, Shuiliang; Han, Jingyi; Tang, Xiujuan; Jiang, Boqiong

2017-01-01

To investigate the characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during haze episodes in warm seasons, daily PM 2.5 and gaseous samples were collected from March to September 2015 in Hangzhou, China. Daily samples were further divided into four groups by the definition of haze according to visibility and relative humidity (RH), including non-haze (visibility, >10 km), light haze (visibility, 8-10 km, RH <90 %), medium haze (visibility, 5-8 km, RH <90 %), and heavy haze (visibility, <5 km, RH <90 %). Significantly higher concentrations of PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were found in haze days, but the mean PM 2.5 -bound PAH concentrations obviously decreased with the aggravation of haze pollution from light to heavy. The gas/particle partitioning coefficients of PAHs decreased from light-haze to heavy-haze episodes, which indicated that PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were restricted to adhere to the particulate phase with the aggravation of haze pollution. Absorption was considered the main mechanism of gas/particle partitioning of PAHs from gaseous to particulate phase. Analysis of air mass transport indicated that the PM 2.5 -bound PAH pollution in haze days was largely from regional sources but also significantly affected by long-range air mass transport. The inhalation cancer risk associated with PAHs exceeded the acceptable risk level markedly in both haze and non-haze days.

Characteristic and Source of Atmospheric PM10- and PM2.5-bound PAHs in a Typical Metallurgic City Near Yangtze River in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Hong; Wang, Ruwei; Xue, Huaqin; Hu, Ruoyu; Liu, Guijian

2018-02-01

The characteristics of atmospheric PM 10 - and PM 2.5 -bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were investigated in Tongling city, China. Results showed that the total concentrations of PM 10 - and PM 2.5 -bound PAHs exhibited distinct seasonal and spatial variability. The metallurgic sites showed the highest PAH concentrations, which is mainly attributed to the metallurgic activities (mainly copper ore smelting) and coal combustion as the smelting fuel. The rural area showed the lowest concentrations, but exhibited significant increase from summer to autumn. This seasonal fluctuation is mainly caused by the biomass burning at the sites in the harvest season. The diagnostic ratio indicated that the main PAHs sources were vehicle exhausts, coal combustion and biomass burning. The total BaP equivalent concentration (BAP-TEQ) was found to be maximum at DGS site in winter, whereas it was minimum at BGC site in summer. Risk assessment indicates that residential exposure to PAHs in the industrial area, especially in the winter season, may pose a greater inhalation cancer risk than people living in living area and rural area.

Bounded rationality alters the dynamics of paediatric immunization acceptance.

PubMed

Oraby, Tamer; Bauch, Chris T

2015-06-02

Interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behavior have been explored in many coupled behavior-disease models. Cognitive effects such as risk perception, framing, and subjective probabilities of adverse events can be important determinants of the vaccinating behaviour, and represent departures from the pure "rational" decision model that are often described as "bounded rationality". However, the impact of such cognitive effects in the context of paediatric infectious disease vaccines has received relatively little attention. Here, we develop a disease-behavior model that accounts for bounded rationality through prospect theory. We analyze the model and compare its predictions to a reduced model that lacks bounded rationality. We find that, in general, introducing bounded rationality increases the dynamical richness of the model and makes it harder to eliminate a paediatric infectious disease. In contrast, in other cases, a low cost, highly efficacious vaccine can be refused, even when the rational decision model predicts acceptance. Injunctive social norms can prevent vaccine refusal, if vaccine acceptance is sufficiently high in the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Cognitive processes can have major impacts on the predictions of behaviour-disease models, and further study of such processes in the context of vaccination is thus warranted.

Bounded rationality alters the dynamics of paediatric immunization acceptance

PubMed Central

Oraby, Tamer; Bauch, Chris T.

2015-01-01

Interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behavior have been explored in many coupled behavior-disease models. Cognitive effects such as risk perception, framing, and subjective probabilities of adverse events can be important determinants of the vaccinating behaviour, and represent departures from the pure “rational” decision model that are often described as “bounded rationality”. However, the impact of such cognitive effects in the context of paediatric infectious disease vaccines has received relatively little attention. Here, we develop a disease-behavior model that accounts for bounded rationality through prospect theory. We analyze the model and compare its predictions to a reduced model that lacks bounded rationality. We find that, in general, introducing bounded rationality increases the dynamical richness of the model and makes it harder to eliminate a paediatric infectious disease. In contrast, in other cases, a low cost, highly efficacious vaccine can be refused, even when the rational decision model predicts acceptance. Injunctive social norms can prevent vaccine refusal, if vaccine acceptance is sufficiently high in the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Cognitive processes can have major impacts on the predictions of behaviour-disease models, and further study of such processes in the context of vaccination is thus warranted. PMID:26035413

An Enzymatic Treatment of Soil-Bound Prions Effectively Inhibits Replication ▿

PubMed Central

Saunders, Samuel E.; Bartz, Jason C.; Vercauteren, Kurt C.; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon L.

2011-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) and scrapie can be transmitted through indirect environmental routes, possibly via soil, and a practical decontamination strategy for prion-contaminated soil is currently unavailable. In the laboratory, an enzymatic treatment under environmentally relevant conditions (22°C, pH 7.4) can degrade soil-bound PrPSc below the limits of Western blot detection. We developed and used a quantitative serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) protocol to characterize the amplification efficiency of treated soil samples relative to controls of known infectious titer. Our results suggest large (104- to >106-fold) decreases in soil-bound prion infectivity following enzyme treatment, demonstrating that a mild enzymatic treatment could effectively reduce the risk of prion disease transmission via soil or other environmental surfaces. PMID:21571886

Emissions of particulate-bound elements from stationary diesel engine: Characterization and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betha, Raghu; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

2011-09-01

There has been an increasing concern about the emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM) from diesel engines because of their close association with adverse health and environmental impacts. Among the alternative fuels being considered, biodiesel made by the transesterification of waste cooking oil has received wide attention in recent years because of its low cost and the added advantage of reducing waste oil disposal. This study was conducted to make a comparative evaluation of the particulate-bound elements emitted from ultra low sulphur diesel (ULSD) and waste cooking oil-derived biodiesel (B100) and a blend of both the fuels (B50). It was observed that the PM mass concentrations were reduced by about 36% when B100 was used. Crustal elements such as Mg, K and Al were found to be in higher concentrations compared to other elements emitted from both B100 and ULSD. Zn, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Mg, Ba, K were found to be higher in the biodiesel exhaust while Co, Pb, Mn, Cd, Sr, and As were found to be higher in the ULSD exhaust. To evaluate the potential health risk due to inhalation of PM emitted from diesel engines running on ULSD and B100, health risk estimates based on exposure and dose-response assessments of particulate-bound elements were calculated assuming exposure for 24 h. The findings indicate that the exposure to PM of the B100 exhaust is relatively more hazardous and may pose adverse health effects compared to ULSD.

Near-Earth Phase Risk Comparison of Human Mars Campaign Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Ted A.; Nejad, Hamed S.; Mattenberger, Chris

2013-01-01

A risk analysis of the launch, orbital assembly, and Earth-departure phases of human Mars exploration campaign architectures was completed as an extension of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originally carried out under the NASA Constellation Program Ares V Project. The objective of the updated analysis was to study the sensitivity of loss-of-campaign risk to such architectural factors as composition of the propellant delivery portion of the launch vehicle fleet (Ares V heavy-lift launch vehicle vs. smaller/cheaper commercial launchers) and the degree of launcher or Mars-bound spacecraft element sparing. Both a static PRA analysis and a dynamic, event-based Monte Carlo simulation were developed and used to evaluate the probability of loss of campaign under different sparing options. Results showed that with no sparing, loss-of-campaign risk is strongly driven by launcher count and on-orbit loiter duration, favoring an all-Ares V launch approach. Further, the reliability of the all-Ares V architecture showed significant improvement with the addition of a single spare launcher/payload. Among architectures utilizing a mix of Ares V and commercial launchers, those that minimized the on-orbit loiter duration of Mars-bound elements were found to exceed the reliability of no spare all-Ares V campaign if unlimited commercial vehicle sparing was assumed

Risk of Death in Infants Who Have Experienced a Brief Resolved Unexplained Event: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Brand, Donald A; Fazzari, Melissa J

2018-06-01

To estimate an upper bound on the risk of death after a brief resolved unexplained event (BRUE), a sudden alteration in an infant's breathing, color, tone, or responsiveness, previously labeled "apparent life-threatening event" (ALTE). The meta-analysis incorporated observational studies of patients with ALTE that included data on in-hospital and post-discharge deaths with at least 1 week of follow-up after hospital discharge. Pertinent studies were identified from a published review of the literature from 1970 through 2014 and a supplementary PubMed query through February 2017. The 12 included studies (n = 3005) reported 12 deaths, of which 8 occurred within 4 months of the event. Applying a Poisson-normal random effects model to the 8 proximate deaths using a 4-month time horizon yielded a post-ALTE mortality rate of about 1 in 800, which constitutes an upper bound on the risk of death after a BRUE. This risk is about the same as the baseline risk of death during the first year of life. The meta-analysis therefore supports the return-home approach advocated in a recently published clinical practice guideline-not routine hospitalization-for BRUE patients who have been evaluated in the emergency department and determined to be at lower risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health risk characterization for resident inhalation exposure to particle-bound halogenated flame retardants in a typical e-waste recycling zone.

PubMed

Luo, Pei; Bao, Lian-Jun; Wu, Feng-Chang; Li, Shao-Meng; Zeng, Eddy Y

2014-01-01

Inhalation of pollutants is an important exposure route for causing human health hazards, and inhalation exposure assessment must take into account particle size distribution because particle-bound pollutants are size-dependent. Such information is scarce, particularly for residents dwelling within e-waste recycling zones where abundant atmospheric halogenated flame retardants (HFRs) commonly used in electronic/electrical devices have been widely reported. Atmospheric size-fractioned particle samples were collected using a 10-stage Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor from an e-waste recycling zone in South China. The deposition efficiencies and fluxes of size-fractioned HFRs including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), alternative brominated flame retardants, and Dechlorane Plus in the human respiratory tract were estimated using the International Commission on Radiological Protection deposition model. The majority of HFRs was found to deposit in the head airways, with coarse particles (aerodynamic diameter (Dp) > 1.8 μm) contributing the most (69-91%). Conversely, fine particles (Dp < 1.8 μm) were dominant in the alveolar region (62-80%). The inhalation intake of PBDEs within the e-waste recycling zone was 44 ng/d (95% confidence interval (CI): 30-65 ng/d), close to those through food consumption in non-e-waste recycling regions. The estimated total hazard quotient of particle-bound HFRs was 5.6 × 10(-4) (95% CI: 3.8 × 10(-4)-8.8 × 10(-4)). In addition, incremental lifetime cancer risk induced by BDE-209 was 1.36 × 10(-10) (95% CI: 7.3 × 10(-11)-2.3 × 10(-10)), much lower than the Safe Acceptable Range (1.0 × 10(-6)-1.0 × 10(-4)) established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. These results indicate that the potential health risk from inhalation exposure to particle-bound HFRs for residents dwelling in the e-waste recycling zone was low.

TealLock 5.20 security software program for handheld devices.

PubMed

Tahil, Fatimah A

2004-07-01

The TealLock has a simple graphic interface, and the program is user-friendly with well thought out options to customize security settings. The program is inexpensive and works seamlessly with the Palm OS platform's built-in basic Security application. The developer offers a 30-day free trial version and there is no downside to trying it to see if it meets your needs. It seems to be an effective security software program for psychiatrists who keep confidential and sensitive patient information on their PDAs. In keeping with HIPAA regulations, the TealLock bolsters security for protected health information stored on PDAs or other handheld devices by providing safeguards that address authentication, access control, encryption, and selected aspects of transmission.

Religion-based tobacco control interventions: how should WHO proceed?

PubMed Central

Jabbour, Samer; Fouad, Fouad Mohammad

2004-01-01

Using religion to improve health is an age-old practice. However, using religion and enlisting religious authorities in public health campaigns, as exemplified by tobacco control interventions and other activities undertaken by WHO's Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, is a relatively recent phenomenon. Although all possible opportunities within society should be exploited to control tobacco use and promote health, religion-based interventions should not be exempted from the evidence-based scrutiny to which other interventions are subjected before being adopted. In the absence of data and debate on whether this approach works, how it should be applied, and what the potential downsides and alternatives are, international organizations such as WHO should think carefully about using religion-based public health interventions in their regional programmes. PMID:15654406

Lung cancer risk by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a Mediterranean industrialized area.

PubMed

Cuadras, Anna; Rovira, Enric; Marcé, Rosa Maria; Borrull, Francesc

2016-11-01

This study focuses on characterizing the chronic risk assessment from inhalation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for people living near the largest chemical complex in the Mediterranean area. Eighteen PAHs were determined in the atmospheric gas and particle phases, counting PM 10 and total suspended particles. The lifetime lung cancer risk from PAH exposure was estimated, and the contribution was assessed by phases. The results obtained with the continuous lifetime scenario were compared with those obtained with different chronic scenarios. The estimated chronic risk was also compared with those reported in previous studies. PAHs were present at higher concentration in the gas phase (>84 %) with a major contribution of the most volatile PAHs, and an equitable distribution of heavy PAHs between gas and particle phases was observed. Petroleum combustion and traffic emissions were suggested as the main sources, but the influence of petrogenic sources cannot be ruled out. The estimated average lifetime lung cancer risk in this study ranged between 3.2 × 10 -5 and 4.3 × 10 -5 . The gas phase accounted for the most significant contribution to the total risk (>60 %). Fluoranthene (FluT), dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DahA) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), as a whole, made the greatest contribution to the total risk (>80 %). BaP-bound PM 10 accounted for a small contribution of the total risk (10 %). Chronic exposures lower than total lifetime hours could even pose a risk >10 -5 . The results also showed that BaP-bound PM 10 , according to current legislation, may not be a good indicator of the real risk by PAH exposure. Concerning previous studies, the economic situation may have an impact on reducing the cancer risk by PAH inhalation.

Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) - TRIM.FaTE

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

TRIM.FaTE is a spatially explicit, compartmental mass balance model that describes the movement and transformation of pollutants over time, through a user-defined, bounded system that includes both biotic and abiotic compartments.

Dioxins, Furans and PCBs in Recycled Water for Indirect Potable Reuse

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, Clemencia; Cook, Angus; Devine, Brian; Van Buynder, Paul; Lugg, Richard; Linge, Kathryn; Weinstein, Philip

2008-01-01

An assessment of potential health impacts of dioxin and dioxin-like compounds in recycled water for indirect potable reuse was conducted. Toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) congeners have been developed by the World Health Organization to simplify the risk assessment of complex mixtures. Samples of secondary treated wastewater in Perth, Australia were examined pre-and post-tertiary treatment in one full-scale and one pilot water reclamation plant. Risk quotients (RQs) were estimated by expressing the middle-bound toxic equivalent (TEQ) and the upper-bound TEQ concentration in each sampling point as a function of the estimated health target value. The results indicate that reverse osmosis (RO) is able to reduce the concentration of PCDD, PCDF and dioxin-like PCBs and produce water of high quality (RQ after RO=0.15). No increased human health risk from dioxin and dioxin-like compounds is anticipated if highly treated recycled water is used to augment drinking water supplies in Perth. Recommendations for a verification monitoring program are offered. PMID:19151430

[Lipid peroxidation in the lymphocyte membrane and protein oxidation in the serum of elderly people. Are they potential markers of frailty and dependence? Preliminary results].

PubMed

Pereira, Marie Christine; Miralles, Ramón; Serra, Ester; Morros, Antoni; Palacio, José Ramón; Martinez, Paz

2016-01-01

To study the relationships between lipid peroxidation of the lymphocyte membrane, protein oxidation and different markers of frailty and dependence. The sample consisted of 15 elderly patients in an intermediate and long-term care center, who had not suffered any acute process recently. The geriatric assessment included, functional capacity (Barthel and Lawton indexes), comorbidity (Charlson index), and cognitive function (Mini Mental State Examination of Folstein). The frailty was estimated by the Hospital Admission Risk Profile (high risk of frailty 4-5 points, intermediate/low 0-3 points) and Frailty Scale of Rockwood (mild frailty<6, intermediate frailty/severe≥6). Lipid peroxidation was studied by determination of conjugated dienes and trienes. Analysis of protein oxidation was performed by determining malondialdehyde bound to plasma proteins, corrected by total protein quantification. Elderly patients at high risk of frailty according to Hospital Admission Risk Profile presented mean values of conjugated dienes of 7.94±1.32%, trienes of 1.75±0.51%, and malondialdehyde bound to plasma proteins of 141.9±27.3nmol/g. In the group of intermediate/low risk, these values were 4.96±2.77% (P=.035), 1.37±0.78% (P=.337) and 96.4±31.5nmol/g (P=.022), respectively. In those with intermediate/severe frailty according to the Frailty Scale of Rockwood, these values were 7.06±2.18%; 1.73±0.50% and 119.6±37.9nmol/g, respectively, and in those with mild frailty 2.56±1.48% (P=014); 0.61±0.58% (P=020) and 173.2±51.9nmol/g (P=.144), respectively. There was good correlation between the Hospital Admission Risk Profile score and malondialdehyde bound to plasma proteins (r=0.70; P=01) and between the Frailty Scale of Rockwood score and conjugated dienes (r=0.65; P=01). Elderly patients with a higher degree of frailty appear to have greater levels of lipid peroxidation, which could be considered a marker of frailty. Copyright © 2015 SEGG. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Biofuels Fuels Technology Pathway Options for Advanced Drop-in Biofuels Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kevin L Kenney

2011-09-01

Advanced drop-in hydrocarbon biofuels require biofuel alternatives for refinery products other than gasoline. Candidate biofuels must have performance characteristics equivalent to conventional petroleum-based fuels. The technology pathways for biofuel alternatives also must be plausible, sustainable (e.g., positive energy balance, environmentally benign, etc.), and demonstrate a reasonable pathway to economic viability and end-user affordability. Viable biofuels technology pathways must address feedstock production and environmental issues through to the fuel or chemical end products. Potential end products include compatible replacement fuel products (e.g., gasoline, diesel, and JP8 and JP5 jet fuel) and other petroleum products or chemicals typically produced from a barrelmore » of crude. Considering the complexity and technology diversity of a complete biofuels supply chain, no single entity or technology provider is capable of addressing in depth all aspects of any given pathway; however, all the necessary expert entities exist. As such, we propose the assembly of a team capable of conducting an in-depth technology pathway options analysis (including sustainability indicators and complete LCA) to identify and define the domestic biofuel pathways for a Green Fleet. This team is not only capable of conducting in-depth analyses on technology pathways, but collectively they are able to trouble shoot and/or engineer solutions that would give industrial technology providers the highest potential for success. Such a team would provide the greatest possible down-side protection for high-risk advanced drop-in biofuels procurement(s).« less

An economic analysis of money follows the patient.

PubMed

McElroy, B; Murphy, A

2014-03-01

As part of the proposed changes to re-design the Irish health-care system, the Department of Health (money follows the patient-policy paper on hospital financing, 2013b) outlined a new funding model for Irish hospitals-money follows the patient (MFTP). This will replace the existing system which is predominately prospective with hospitals receiving a block grant per annum. MFTP will fund episodes of care rather than hospitals. Thus, hospital revenue will be directly linked to activity [activity-based funding (ABF)]. With ABF there is a fundamental shift to a system where hospitals generate their own income and this changes incentive structures. While some of these incentives are intended (reducing cost per case and increasing coding quality), others are less intended and less desirable. As a result, there may be reductions in quality, upcoding, cream skimming and increased pressure on other parts of the health system. In addition, MFTP may distort health system priorities. There are some feasibility concerns associated with the implementation of MFTP. Data collection, coding and classification capacity are crucial for its success. While MFTP can build on existing systems, significant investment is required for its success. This includes investment in coding and classification, infrastructure, skills, IT, contracting, commissioning, auditing and performance monitoring systems. Despite the challenges facing implementers, MFTP could greatly improve the transparency and accountability of the system. Thus if the downside risks are managed, there is potential for MFTP to confer significant benefits to Irish hospital care.

Valuing flexibilities in the design of urban water management systems.

PubMed

Deng, Yinghan; Cardin, Michel-Alexandre; Babovic, Vladan; Santhanakrishnan, Deepak; Schmitter, Petra; Meshgi, Ali

2013-12-15

Climate change and rapid urbanization requires decision-makers to develop a long-term forward assessment on sustainable urban water management projects. This is further complicated by the difficulties of assessing sustainable designs and various design scenarios from an economic standpoint. A conventional valuation approach for urban water management projects, like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, fails to incorporate uncertainties, such as amount of rainfall, unit cost of water, and other uncertainties associated with future changes in technological domains. Such approach also fails to include the value of flexibility, which enables managers to adapt and reconfigure systems over time as uncertainty unfolds. This work describes an integrated framework to value investments in urban water management systems under uncertainty. It also extends the conventional DCF analysis through explicit considerations of flexibility in systems design and management. The approach incorporates flexibility as intelligent decision-making mechanisms that enable systems to avoid future downside risks and increase opportunities for upside gains over a range of possible futures. A water catchment area in Singapore was chosen to assess the value of a flexible extension of standard drainage canals and a flexible deployment of a novel water catchment technology based on green roofs and porous pavements. Results show that integrating uncertainty and flexibility explicitly into the decision-making process can reduce initial capital expenditure, improve value for investment, and enable decision-makers to learn more about system requirements during the lifetime of the project. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reserve stem cells: Reprogramming of differentiated cells fuels repair, metaplasia, and neoplasia in the adult gastrointestinal tract

PubMed Central

Mills, Jason C.; Sansom, Owen J.

2016-01-01

It has long been known that differentiated cells can switch fates, especially in vitro, but only recently has there been a critical mass of publications describing the mechanisms adult, post-mitotic cells use in vivo to reverse their differentiation state. We propose that this sort of cellular reprogramming is a fundamental cellular process akin to apoptosis or mitosis. Because reprogramming can invoke regenerative cells from mature cells, it is critical to the longterm maintenance of tissues like the pancreas, which encounter large insults during adulthood but lack constitutively active adult stem cells to repair the damage. However, even in tissues with adult stem cells, like stomach and intestine, reprogramming may allow mature cells to serve as reserve (“quiescent”) stem cells when normal stem cells are compromised. We propose that the potential downside to reprogramming is that it increases risk for cancers that occur late in adulthood. Mature, long-lived cells may have years of exposure to mutagens. Mutations that affect the physiological function of differentiated, post-mitotic cells may lead to apoptosis, but mutations in genes that govern proliferation might not be selected against. Hence, reprogramming with reentry into the cell cycle might unmask those mutations, causing an irreversible progenitor-like, proliferative state. We review recent evidence showing that reprogramming fuels irreversible metaplastic and precancerous proliferations in stomach and pancreas. Finally, we illustrate how we think reprogrammed differentiated cells are likely candidates as cells of origin for cancers of the intestine. PMID:26175494

Regulating Hazardous-materials Transportation with Behavioral Modeling of Drivers

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-29

Changhyun Kwon (ORCID ID 0000-0001-8455-6396) This project considers network regulation problems to minimize the risk of hazmat accidents and potential damages to the environment, while considering bounded rationality of drivers. We consider governme...

The origin of bounded rationality and intelligence.

PubMed

Lo, Andrew W

2013-09-01

Rational economic behavior in which individuals maximize their own self-interest is only one of many possible types of behavior that arise from natural selection. Given an initial population of individuals, each assigned a purely arbitrary behavior with respect to a binary choice problem, and assuming that offspring behave identically to their parents, only those behaviors linked to reproductive success will survive, and less successful behaviors will disappear exponentially fast. This framework yields a single evolutionary explanation for the origin of several behaviors that have been observed in organisms ranging from bacteria to humans, including risk-sensitive foraging, risk aversion, loss aversion, probability matching, randomization, and diversification. The key to understanding which types of behavior are more likely to survive is how behavior affects reproductive success in a given population's environment. From this perspective, intelligence is naturally defined as behavior that increases the likelihood of reproductive success, and bounds on rationality are determined by physiological and environmental constraints.

Fate of a novel strobilurin fungicide pyraoxystrobin in flooded soil.

PubMed

Yang, Tilong; Xu, Chao; Liu, Xunyue; Chen, Xia; Zhang, Jianbo; Ding, Xingcheng

2014-05-01

Pyraoxystrobin, ((E)-2-(2-((3-(4-chlorophenyl)-1-methyl-1H-pyrazol-5-yloxy) methyl) phenyl)-3-methoxyacrylate) is a novel strobilurin fungicide with excellent and broad spectrum antifungal efficiency. Environmental behaviors of the new fungicide must be assessed to understand its potential risks to the environment. In this study, the extractable residues, bound residues and mineralization, as well as the dissipation rates of pyraoxystrobin were investigated in three flooded soils using a (14)C tracing technique. Results showed that pyraoxystrobin didn't undergo appreciable dissipation during the 100 day incubation period in some tested soils, with 70.01%, 28.58% and 83.85% of the parent compound remaining in the solonchak, cambisol and acrisol soils at the end of the experiment, respectively. Almost no (14)C-pyraoxystrobin was mineralized to (14)CO2 (<0.5%) over the experimental period. Organic matter had a dominating influence on the bound residues formation and the fractions of bound residues increased as the soil organic matter content increased. Less than 9% of the radioactivity was found in the aqueous phase, while the majority of extractable residues (>65.39%) were recovered in the organic extracts. This study aims to give a deep insight into the environmental behaviors of pyraoxystrobin and may be beneficial for the risk assessment of other analogous fungicides.

The Prevent programme: an ethical dilemma for teachers as well as psychiatrists

PubMed Central

Reed, Stephanie

2016-01-01

The UK government's Prevent programme affects professionals and the people who rely on their services across the public sector, particularly now that workers are legally bound to report their concerns about individuals they believe to be at risk of radicalisation. This article discusses the risks that the strategy presents to the work of teachers and the bonds of trusts between staff and students. PMID:27087992

Chemical Speciation and Health Risk Assessment of Fine Particulate Bound Trace Metals Emitted from Ota Industrial Estate, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anake, Winifred U.; Ana, Godson R. E. E.; Williams, Akan B.; Fred-Ahmadu, Omowunmi H.; Benson, Nsikak U.

2017-05-01

In this study carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk due to exposure to PM2.5-bound trace metals from an industrial area in Southwestern Nigeria was estimated. A four-step chemical sequential extraction procedure was employed for the chemical extraction of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr) copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn). Samples were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Results reveal Cr and Cu as the most dominant exchangeable fraction metals, indicating possibility of their being readily soluble once PM2.5 is inhaled. Cd and Cr record the highest bioavailability index of 0.7. The cumulative lifetime cancer risks due to inhalation exposure for adults (4.25×10-2), children 1-6 years old (4.87×10-3), and children 6-18 years old (1.46×10-2) were found above Environmental Protection Agency’s acceptable range of 1×10-6 to 1×10-4. The hazard index values for all studied trace metals suggest significant potential for non-carcinogenic health risks to adults and children. The choice of chemical speciation as an essential tool in facilitating a better predictive insight on metal bioavailability and toxicity for immediate remediation action has been highlighted.

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

Occurrence, speciation and transportation of heavy metals in 9 coastal rivers from watershed of Laizhou Bay, China.

PubMed

Xu, Li; Wang, Tieyu; Wang, Jihua; Lu, Anxiang

2017-04-01

The occurrence, speciation and transport of heavy metals in 9 coastal rivers from watershed of Laizhou Bay were investigated. The largest dissolved concentrations of Cd, Cu and Zn in water were 6.26, 2755.00, 2076.00 μg/L, respectively, much higher than several drinking water guidelines. The greatest concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cr, Ni, Pb and Cd in sediments were 1462, 1602, 196, 67.2, 63.5 and 1.41 mg/kg, dw, respectively. Correlation and principal component analysis was also conducted to determine the extent between the concentrations of metals in water and sediment, as well as relevant parameters. Throughout the river stretch, most of Cr Zn, Cr, Ni and Pb bound to residual fraction, however, Cd was preferentially bound to the exchangeable phase. Among the 9 rivers, Yellow river account for 72.5%, 67.5%, 55.4%, 59.4%, 79.4% and 85.5% for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn. Cd and Pb, respectively. The combined potential ecological risk indexes were used to evaluate potential risks. The majority of sampling sites from watershed of Laizhou Bay have moderate ecological risk from metals. The government should pay more attention to the ecological risk of river ecosystem which flow to Laizhou Bay. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Production of drinking water from raw water containing cyanobacteria--pilot plant studies for assessing the risk of microcystin breakthrough.

PubMed

Schmidt, Wido; Willmitzer, Hartmut; Bornmann, Katrin; Pietsch, Jörg

2002-01-01

Toxins in cyanobacteria are a recognized risk in the treatment of drinking-water treatment. Cyanotoxins can occur in two modifications: cell bound and dissolved in water. The process of toxin release may occur naturally, but it also may be induced through the processes of drinking-water treatment. Both causes of release are relevant to the safety of drinking water. This study investigated cyanotoxin release and elimination through different treatment trains in systematic pilot-scale studies with water from the Weida Reservoir, in Thuringia, Germany. The Weida Reservoir is a dimictic mesoeutrophic reservoir typical for a number of mountainous areas in Europe, with Planktothrix rubescens as the dominant phytoplankton species, and shows a characteristic seasonal pattern of population development and microcystin occurrence. To assess the risk of microcystin breakthrough, the pilot-scale results as well as results of laboratory-scale experiments were used for developing a kinetic model of toxin release in relation to elimination. By calculating removal efficiency of total microcystins (cell bound and dissolved) for different treatment trains, raw water quality was related to the quality targets for finished water, and breakthrough risks could be calculated for given treatment trains and varying cyanobacterial population densities in the reservoir. Copyright 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

QMRA for Drinking Water: 2. The Effect of Pathogen Clustering in Single-Hit Dose-Response Models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Vegard; Wyller, John

2016-01-01

Spatial and/or temporal clustering of pathogens will invalidate the commonly used assumption of Poisson-distributed pathogen counts (doses) in quantitative microbial risk assessment. In this work, the theoretically predicted effect of spatial clustering in conventional "single-hit" dose-response models is investigated by employing the stuttering Poisson distribution, a very general family of count distributions that naturally models pathogen clustering and contains the Poisson and negative binomial distributions as special cases. The analysis is facilitated by formulating the dose-response models in terms of probability generating functions. It is shown formally that the theoretical single-hit risk obtained with a stuttering Poisson distribution is lower than that obtained with a Poisson distribution, assuming identical mean doses. A similar result holds for mixed Poisson distributions. Numerical examples indicate that the theoretical single-hit risk is fairly insensitive to moderate clustering, though the effect tends to be more pronounced for low mean doses. Furthermore, using Jensen's inequality, an upper bound on risk is derived that tends to better approximate the exact theoretical single-hit risk for highly overdispersed dose distributions. The bound holds with any dose distribution (characterized by its mean and zero inflation index) and any conditional dose-response model that is concave in the dose variable. Its application is exemplified with published data from Norovirus feeding trials, for which some of the administered doses were prepared from an inoculum of aggregated viruses. The potential implications of clustering for dose-response assessment as well as practical risk characterization are discussed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fiber-wireless for smart grid: A survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radzi, NAM; Ridwan, MA; Din, NM; Abdullah, F.; Mustafa, IS; l-Mansoori, MH

2017-11-01

Smart grid allows two-way communication between power utility companies and their customers while having the ability to sense along the transmission lines. However, the downside is such, when the smart devices are transmitting data simultaneously, it results in network congestion. Fiber wireless (FiWi) network is one of the best congestion solutions for smart grid up to date. In this paper, a survey of current literature on FiWi for smart grid will be reviewed and a testbed to test the protocols and algorithms for FiWi in smart grid will be proposed. The results of number of packets received and delay vs packet transmitted obtained via the testbed are compared with the results obtained via simulation and they show that they are in line with each other, validating the accuracy of the testbed.

A Survival Analysis of Adolescent Friendships: The Downside of Dissimilarity

PubMed Central

Hartl, Amy C.; Laursen, Brett; Cillessen, Antonius H. N.

2015-01-01

The present study examined whether adolescent friendships dissolve because of characteristics of friends, differences between friends, or both. Participants included 410 adolescents (201 boys, 209 girls) who reported a total of 573 reciprocated friendships that originated in the 7th grade (M age = 13.20 years). Discrete-time survival analyses were conducted in which peer nominations and teacher ratings collected in Grade 7 predicted the occurrence and timing of friendship dissolution across grades 8 to 12. Grade 7 individual characteristics were unrelated to friendship stability, but Grade 7 differences in sex, peer acceptance, physical aggression, and school competence predicted subsequent friendship dissolution. The findings suggest that compatibility is a function of similarity between friends rather than the presence or absence of a particular trait. PMID:26187246

Selection of human consumables for future space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bourland, C. T.; Smith, M. C.

1991-01-01

Consumables for human spaceflight include oxygen, water, food and food packaging, personal hygiene items, and clothing. This paper deals with the requirements for food and water, and their impact on waste product generation. Just as urbanization of society has been made possible by improved food processing and packaging, manned spaceflight has benefitted from this technology. The downside of this technology is increased food package waste product. Since consumables make up a major portion of the vehicle onboard stowage and generate most of the waste products, selection of consumables is a very critical process. Food and package waste comprise the majority of the trash generated on the current shuttle orbiter missions. Plans for future missions must include accurate assessment of the waste products to be generated, and the methods for processing and disposing of these wastes.

A personal reflection on social media in medicine: I stand, no wiser than before.

PubMed

Weiner, John

2015-04-01

Social media has enabled information, communication and reach for health professionals. There are clear benefits to patients and consumers when health information is broadcast. But there are unanswered questions on professionalism, education, and the complex mentoring relationship between doctor and student. This personal perspective raises a number of questions: What is online medical professionalism? Can online medical professionalism be taught? Can online medical professionalism be enforced? Is an online presence necessary to achieve the highest level of clinical excellence? Is there evidence that social media is superior to traditional methods of teaching in medical education? Does social media encourage multitasking and impairment of the learning process? Are there downsides to the perfunctory laconic nature of social media? Does social media waste time that is better spent attaining clinical skills?

The practical paradox of technology: The influence of communication technology use on employee burnout and engagement.

PubMed

Ter Hoeven, Claartje L; van Zoonen, Ward; Fonner, Kathryn L

2016-04-02

Technological advancements in the workplace frequently have produced contradictory effects by facilitating accessibility and efficiency while increasing interruptions and unpredictability. We combine insights from organizational paradoxes and the job demands-resources model to construct a framework identifying positive and negative mechanisms in the relationship between communication technology use (CTU) and employee well-being, operationalized as work engagement and burnout. In this study of Dutch workers, we demonstrate that CTU increases well-being through positive pathways (accessibility and efficiency) and decreases well-being through negative pathways (interruptions and unpredictability). We highlight the importance of (1) investigating CTU resources and demands simultaneously to grasp the relationship between CTU and employee well-being, and (2) considering CTU's downsides to successfully implement new communication technologies and flexible work designs.

For Black men, being tall increases threat stereotyping and police stops.

PubMed

Hester, Neil; Gray, Kurt

2018-03-13

Height seems beneficial for men in terms of salaries and success; however, past research on height examines only White men. For Black men, height may be more costly than beneficial, primarily signaling threat rather than competence. Three studies reveal the downsides of height in Black men. Study 1 analyzes over 1 million New York Police Department stop-and-frisk encounters and finds that tall Black men are especially likely to receive unjustified attention from police. Then, studies 2 and 3 experimentally demonstrate a causal link between perceptions of height and perceptions of threat for Black men, particularly for perceivers who endorse stereotypes that Black people are more threatening than White people. Together, these data reveal that height is sometimes a liability for Black men, particularly in contexts in which threat is salient.

The Environment in International Relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Oran R.

2009-11-01

In this lucid and well-organized text, Kate O'Neill provides a survey of current thinking in the field of international environmental politics. To make her effort manageable, she approaches this task as an analysis of the “politics of global environmental governance” (p. 1). This approach has the effect of orienting the survey toward research on efforts to develop cooperative and lasting solutions to a variety of environmental problems. The downside of this approach is a relative lack of emphasis on various forms of environmental conflict that lead to outcomes such as growth in the number of environmental refugees and the destruction of important ecosystems. But the virtue of the decision to focus on environmental governance is that it provides a coherent and easily understandable framework for the chapters that follow.

16 CFR 1305.5 - Findings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT REGULATIONS BAN OF ARTIFICIAL... not permanently bound into artificial fireplace logs would be in respirable form, the risk associated...) Products subject to the ban. Artificial emberizing materials are decorative simulated ashes or embers, used...

Ambient PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Changhua County, central Taiwan: Seasonal variation, source apportionment and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Cheng; Chiang, Hung-Che; Hsu, Chin-Yu; Yang, Tzu-Ting; Lin, Tzu-Yu; Chen, Mu-Jean; Chen, Nai-Tzu; Wu, Yuh-Shen

2016-11-01

This study investigates PM 2.5 -bound PAHs for rural sites (Dacheng and Fangyuan) positioned close to heavy air-polluting industries in Changhua County, central Taiwan. A total of 113 PM 2.5 samples with 22 PAHs collected from 2014 to 2015 were analyzed, and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) and diagnostic ratios of PAHs were applied to quantify potential PAH sources. The influences of local and regional sources were also explored using the conditional probability function (CPF) and potential source contribution function (PSCF) with PMF-modeled results, respectively. Annual mean concentrations of total PAHs were 2.91 ± 1.34 and 3.04 ± 1.40 ng/m 3 for Dacheng and Fangyuan, respectively, and their corresponding BaP eq were measured at 0.534 ± 0.255 and 0.563 ± 0.273 ng/m 3 in concentration. Seasonal variations with higher PAHs found for the winter than for the spring and summer were observed for both sites. The lifetime excess cancer risk (ECR) from inhalation exposure to PAHs was recorded as 4.7 × 10 -5 overall. Potential sources of PM 2.5 -bound PAHs include unburned petroleum and traffic emissions (42%), steel industry and coal combustion (31%), and petroleum and oil burning (27%), and unburned petroleum and traffic emission could contribute the highest ECR (2.4 × 10 -5 ). The CPF results show that directional apportionment patterns were consistent with the actual locations of local PAH sources. The PSCF results indicate that mainly northeastern regions of China have contributed elevated PM 2.5 -bound PAHs from long-range transports. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Adverse health events and health hazards reflections of epidemiologists and environmentalists].

PubMed

Vitale, Ksenija; Smoljanović, Mladen

2010-12-01

In this article we present management of water resources in Croatia as a model of integral approach in public health interventions. The links between provision of clean water, sanitation and good health are so strong that today management and water protection are deeply integrated in primary health care. This article is a follow up on topics presented on 2nd Croatian congress on preventive medicine and health promotion which gave us "state of art" in Croatian public health. We strongly believe that every system has its own advantages and downsides, and only by knowing the system well and continuous improvement we can protect ourselves in time of health, social or economic crisis. The model of water protection showed that to prevent and overcome the variety of water-related health risks, implementation of various activities that include general environmental protection, development of water management system, permanent water quality monitoring and control, and improvement of standards and legislative is needed. On the other hand if there is no holistic approach, to the public health problems, all the efforts in just one field will not result in health indicators improvement. Constant monitoring and uniform analysis of data could help to identify possible risks of adverse effects of various environmental factors and possible burden of disease as a consequence. That information could be a point of arguing with local governments and communities for public health interventions. It is important that epidemiological and environmental data do not remain in the domain of academic discussion or statistics, and never reach primary health care which could use them in direct health care providing. Information exchange in real time is important for the real time public health intervention. Primary health care is the front line in communication with patients and diagnostics of disease as well as prevention, and they need to have access to all relevant data.

TAPESTRY on Display.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapp, Katie

1992-01-01

Describes three programs funded by the Toyota Appreciation Program for Excellence to Science Teachers Reaching Youth (TAPESTRY) program: (1) High School Hawk Watch promotes wildlife awareness student research; (2) Science without Bounds makes science accessible to at-risk and minority students; and (3) Kansas Environmental Monitoring Network…

Development and validation of an HPLC-method for determination of free and bound phenolic acids in cereals after solid-phase extraction.

PubMed

Irakli, Maria N; Samanidou, Victoria F; Biliaderis, Costas G; Papadoyannis, Ioannis N

2012-10-01

Whole cereal grains are a good source of phenolic acids associated with reduced risk of chronic diseases. This paper reports the development and validation of a high-performance liquid chromatography-diode array detection (HPLC-DAD) method for the determination of phenolic acids in cereals in either free or bound form. Extraction of free phenolic acids and clean-up was performed by an optimised solid-phase extraction (SPE) protocol on Oasis HLB cartridges using aqueous methanol as eluant. The mean recovery of analytes ranged between 84% and 106%. Bound phenolic acids were extracted using alkaline hydrolysis with mean recoveries of 80-95%, except for gallic acid, caffeic acid and protocatechuic acid. Both free and bound phenolic extracts were separated on a Nucleosil 100 C18 column, 5 μm (250 mm × 4.6 mm) thermostated at 30 °C, using a linear gradient elution system consisting of 1% (v/v) acetic acid in methanol. Method validation was performed by means of linearity, accuracy, intra-day and inter-day precision and sensitivity. Detection limits ranged between 0.13 and 0.18 μg/g. The method was applied to the analysis of free and bound phenolic acids contents in durum wheat, bread wheat, barley, oat, rice, rye, corn and triticale. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

30-Second bound and pore water concentration mapping of cortical bone using 2D UTE with optimized half-pulses.

PubMed

Manhard, Mary Kate; Harkins, Kevin D; Gochberg, Daniel F; Nyman, Jeffry S; Does, Mark D

2017-03-01

MRI of cortical bone has the potential to offer new information about fracture risk. Current methods are typically performed with 3D acquisitions, which suffer from long scan times and are generally limited to extremities. This work proposes using 2D UTE with half pulses for quantitatively mapping bound and pore water in cortical bone. Half-pulse 2D UTE methods were implemented on a 3T Philips Achieva scanner using an optimized slice-select gradient waveform, with preparation pulses to selectively image bound or pore water. The 2D methods were quantitatively compared with previously implemented 3D methods in the tibia in five volunteers. The mean difference between bound and pore water concentration acquired from 3D and 2D sequences was 0.6 and 0.9 mol 1 H/L bone (3 and 12%, respectively). While 2D pore water methods tended to slightly overestimate concentrations relative to 3D methods, differences were less than scan-rescan uncertainty and expected differences between healthy and fracture-prone bones. Quantitative bound and pore water concentration mapping in cortical bone can be accelerated by 2 orders of magnitude using 2D protocols with optimized half-pulse excitation. Magn Reson Med 77:945-950, 2017. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Evaluation of two working methods for screed floor layers on musculoskeletal complaints, work demands and workload.

PubMed

Visser, Steven; van der Molen, Henk F; Kuijer, P Paul F M; van Holland, Berry J; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W

2013-01-01

Screed floors are bound by sand-cement (SF) or by anhydrite (AF). Sand-cement floors are levelled manually and anhydrite floors are self-levelling and therefore differences in work demands and prevalences of musculoskeletal complaints might occur. The objective was to assess among SF layers and AF layers (1) the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints and (2) the physical work demands, energetic workload, perceived workload and discomfort. A questionnaire survey and an observational field study were performed. Compared with AF layers (n = 35), SF layers (n = 203) had higher, however, not statistically significant different, prevalences of neck (20% vs. 7%), shoulder (27% vs. 13%), low back (39% vs. 26%) and ankles/feet (9% vs. 0%) complaints. Sand-cement-bound screed floor layers (n = 18) bent and kneeled significantly longer (Δ77 min and Δ94 min; respectively), whereas AF layers (n = 18) stood significantly longer (Δ60 min). The work demands of SF layers exceeded exposure criteria for low back and knee complaints and therefore new working measures should be developed and implemented. In comparison with anhydrite-bound screed floor layers, sand-cement-bound screed floor layers exceeded exposure criteria for work-related low back and knee complaints. New working methods and measures for sand-cement-bound screed floor layers should be developed and implemented to reduce the risk for work-related musculoskeletal complaints.

Symmetric miniaturized heating system for active microelectronic devices.

PubMed

McCracken, Michael; Mayer, Michael; Jourard, Isaac; Moon, Jeong-Tak; Persic, John

2010-07-01

To qualify interconnect technologies such as microelectronic fine wire bonds for mass production of integrated circuit (IC) packages, it is necessary to perform accelerated aging tests, e.g., to age a device at an elevated temperature or to subject the device to thermal cycling and measure the decrease of interconnect quality. There are downsides to using conventional ovens for this as they are relatively large and have relatively slow temperature change rates, and if electrical connections are required between monitoring equipment and the device being heated, they must be located inside the oven and may be aged by the high temperatures. Addressing these downsides, a miniaturized heating system (minioven) is presented, which can heat individual IC packages containing the interconnects to be tested. The core of this system is a piece of copper cut from a square shaped tube with high resistance heating wire looped around it. Ceramic dual in-line packages are clamped against either open end of the core. One package contains a Pt100 temperature sensor and the other package contains the device to be aged placed in symmetry to the temperature sensor. According to the temperature detected by the Pt100, a proportional-integral-derivative controller adjusts the power supplied to the heating wire. The system maintains a dynamic temperature balance with the core hot and the two symmetric sides with electrical connections to the device under test at a cooler temperature. Only the face of the package containing the device is heated, while the socket holding it remains below 75 degrees C when the oven operates at 200 degrees C. The minioven can heat packages from room temperature up to 200 degrees C in less than 5 min and maintain this temperature at 28 W power. During long term aging, a temperature of 200 degrees C was maintained for 1120 h with negligible resistance change of the heating wires after 900 h (heating wire resistance increased 0.2% over the final 220 h). The device is also subjected to 5700 thermal cycles between 55 and 195 degrees C, demonstrating reliability under thermal cycling.

A 10-year observation of PM2.5-bound nickel in Xi’an, China: Effects of source control on its trend and associated health risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hongmei; Ho, Steven Sai Hang; Cao, Junji; Guinot, Benjamin; Kan, Haidong; Shen, Zhenxing; Ho, Kin Fai; Liu, Suixin; Zhao, Zhuzi; Li, Jianjun; Zhang, Ningning; Zhu, Chongshu; Zhang, Qian; Huang, Rujin

2017-01-01

This study presents the first long term (10-year period, 2004-2013) datasets of PM2.5-bound nickel (Ni) concentration obtained from the daily sample in urban of Xi’an, Northwestern China. The Ni concentration trend, pollution sources, and the potential health risks associated to Ni were investigated. The Ni concentrations increased from 2004 to 2008, but then decreased due to coal consumption reduction, energy structure reconstruction, tighter emission rules and the improvement of the industrial and motor vehicle waste control techniques. With the comparison of distributions between workday and non-workday periods, the effectiveness of local and regional air pollution control policies and contributions of hypothetical Ni sources (industrial and automobile exhausts) were evaluated, demonstrating the health benefits to the populations during the ten years. Mean Ni cancer risk was higher than the threshold value of 10-6, suggesting that carcinogenic Ni still was a concern to the residents. Our findings conclude that there are still needs to establish more strict strategies and guidelines for atmospheric Ni in our living area, assisting to balance the relationship between economic growth and environmental conservation in China.

High exposure to inorganic arsenic by food: the need for risk reduction.

PubMed

Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Damm, Georg; Foth, Heidi; Freyberger, Alexius; Gebel, Thomas; Golka, Klaus; Röhl, Claudia; Schupp, Thomas; Wollin, Klaus-Michael; Hengstler, Jan Georg

2015-12-01

Arsenic is a human carcinogen that occurs ubiquitously in soil and water. Based on epidemiological studies, a benchmark dose (lower/higher bound estimate) between 0.3 and 8 μg/kg bw/day was estimated to cause a 1 % increased risk of lung, skin and bladder cancer. A recently published study by EFSA on dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic in the European population reported 95th percentiles (lower bound min to upper bound max) for different age groups in the same range as the benchmark dose. For toddlers, a highly exposed group, the highest values ranged between 0.61 and 2.09 µg arsenic/kg bw/day. For all other age classes, the margin of exposure is also small. This scenario calls for regulatory action to reduce arsenic exposure. One priority measure should be to reduce arsenic in food categories that contribute most to exposure. In the EFSA study the food categories 'milk and dairy products,' 'drinking water' and 'food for infants' represent major sources of inorganic arsenic for infants and also rice is an important source. Long-term strategies are required to reduce inorganic arsenic in these food groups. The reduced consumption of rice and rice products which has been recommended may be helpful for a minority of individuals consuming unusually high amounts of rice. However, it is only of limited value for the general European population, because the food categories 'grain-based processed products (non rice-based)' or 'milk and dairy products' contribute more to the exposure with inorganic arsenic than the food category 'rice.' A balanced regulatory activity focusing on the most relevant food categories is required. In conclusion, exposure to inorganic arsenic represents a risk to the health of the European population, particularly to young children. Regulatory measures to reduce exposure are urgently required.

Decisions without blinders.

PubMed

Bazerman, Max H; Chugh, Dolly

2006-01-01

By the time Merck withdrew its pain relief drug Vioxx from the market in 2004, more than 100 million prescriptions had been filled in the United States alone. Yet researchers now estimate that Vioxx may have been associated with as many as 25,000 heart attacks and strokes. Evidence of the drug's risks was available as early as 2000, so why did so many doctors keep prescribing it? The answer, say the authors, involves the phenomenon of bounded awareness--when cognitive blinders prevent a person from seeing, seeking, using, or sharing highly relevant, easily accessible, and readily perceivable information during the decision-making process. Doctors prescribing Vioxx, for instance, more often than not received positive feedback from patients. So, despite having access to information about the risks, physicians may have been blinded to the actual extent of the risks. Bounded awareness can occur at three points in the decision-making process. First, executives may fail to see or seek out the important information needed to make a sound decision. Second, they may fail to use the information that they do see because they aren't aware of its relevance. Third, executives may fail to share information with others, thereby bounding the organization's awareness. Drawing on examples such as the Challenger disaster and Citibank's failures in Japan, this article examines what prevents executives from seeing what's right in front of them and offers advice on how to increase awareness. Of course, not every decision requires executives to consciously broaden their focus. Collecting too much information for every decision would waste time and other valuable resources. The key is being mindful. If executives think an error could generate almost irrecoverable damage, then they should insist on getting all the information they need to make a wise decision.

Rapidly assessing the probability of exceptionally high natural hazard losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollini, Isabella; Rougier, Jonathan

2014-05-01

One of the objectives in catastrophe modeling is to assess the probability distribution of losses for a specified period, such as a year. From the point of view of an insurance company, the whole of the loss distribution is interesting, and valuable in determining insurance premiums. But the shape of the righthand tail is critical, because it impinges on the solvency of the company. A simple measure of the risk of insolvency is the probability that the annual loss will exceed the company's current operating capital. Imposing an upper limit on this probability is one of the objectives of the EU Solvency II directive. If a probabilistic model is supplied for the loss process, then this tail probability can be computed, either directly, or by simulation. This can be a lengthy calculation for complex losses. Given the inevitably subjective nature of quantifying loss distributions, computational resources might be better used in a sensitivity analysis. This requires either a quick approximation to the tail probability or an upper bound on the probability, ideally a tight one. We present several different bounds, all of which can be computed nearly instantly from a very general event loss table. We provide a numerical illustration, and discuss the conditions under which the bound is tight. Although we consider the perspective of insurance and reinsurance companies, exactly the same issues concern the risk manager, who is typically very sensitive to large losses.

Chromatin-bound RNA and the neurobiology of psychiatric disease.

PubMed

Tushir, J S; Akbarian, S

2014-04-04

A large, and still rapidly expanding literature on epigenetic regulation in the nervous system has provided fundamental insights into the dynamic regulation of DNA methylation and post-translational histone modifications in the context of neuronal plasticity in health and disease. Remarkably, however, very little is known about the potential role of chromatin-bound RNAs, including many long non-coding transcripts and various types of small RNAs. Here, we provide an overview on RNA-mediated regulation of chromatin structure and function, with focus on histone lysine methylation and psychiatric disease. Examples of recently discovered chromatin-bound long non-coding RNAs important for neuronal health and function include the brain-derived neurotrophic factor antisense transcript (Bdnf-AS) which regulates expression of the corresponding sense transcript, and LOC389023 which is associated with human-specific histone methylation signatures at the chromosome 2q14.1 neurodevelopmental risk locus by regulating expression of DPP10, an auxillary subunit for voltage-gated K(+) channels. We predict that the exploration of chromatin-bound RNA will significantly advance our current knowledge base in neuroepigenetics and biological psychiatry. Copyright © 2013 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of carbonaceous materials in soil on the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events.

PubMed

Luo, Xiaolin; Zheng, Yi; Wu, Bin; Lin, Zhongrong; Han, Feng; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

2013-11-01

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported from contaminated soils by surface runoff pose significant risk for aquatic ecosystems. Based on a rainfall-runoff simulation experiment, this study investigated the impact of carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil, identified by organic petrology analysis, on the transport of soil-bound PAHs under rainfall conditions. The hypothesis that composition of soil organic matter significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs was proved. CMs in soil, varying significantly in content, mobility and adsorption capacity, act differently on the transport of PAHs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon (BC) largely control the transport, as PAHs may be preferentially attached to them. Eventually, this study led to a rethink of the traditional enrichment theory. An important implication is that CMs in soil have to be explicitly considered to appropriately model the nonpoint source pollution of PAHs (possibly other hydrophobic chemicals as well) and assess its environmental risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum protein profiling using an aptamer array predicts clinical outcomes of stage IIA colon cancer: A leave-one-out crossvalidation

PubMed Central

Huh, Jung Wook; Kim, Sung Chun; Sohn, Insuk; Jung, Sin-Ho; Kim, Hee Cheol

2016-01-01

Background In this study, we established and validated a model for predicting prognosis of stage IIA colon cancer patients based on expression profiles of aptamers in serum. Methods Bloods samples were collected from 227 consecutive patients with pathologic T3N0M0 (stage IIA) colon cancer. We incubated 1,149 serum molecule-binding aptamer pools of clinical significance with serum from patients to obtain aptamers bound to serum molecules, which were then amplified and marked. Oligonucleotide arrays were constructed with the base sequences of the 1,149 aptamers, and the marked products identified above were reacted with one another to produce profiles of the aptamers bound to serum molecules. These profiles were organized into low- and high-risk groups of colon cancer patients based on clinical information for the serum samples. Cox proportional hazards model and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to evaluate predictive performance. Results During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 29 of the 227 patients (11.9%) experienced recurrence. There were 212 patients (93.4%) in the low-risk group and 15 patients (6.6%) in the high-risk group in our aptamer prognosis model. Postoperative recurrence significantly correlated with age and aptamer risk stratification (p = 0.046 and p = 0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, aptamer risk stratification (p < 0.001) was an independent predictor of recurrence. Disease-free survival curves calculated according to aptamer risk level predicted through a LOOCV procedure and age showed significant differences (p < 0.001 from permutations). Conclusion Aptamer risk stratification can be a valuable prognostic factor in stage II colon cancer patients. PMID:26908450

A Signal-to-Noise Crossover Dose as the Point of Departure for Health Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Portier, Christopher J.; Krewski, Daniel

2011-01-01

Background: The U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) cancer bioassay database provides an opportunity to compare both existing and new approaches to determining points of departure (PoDs) for establishing reference doses (RfDs). Objectives: The aims of this study were a) to investigate the risk associated with the traditional PoD used in human health risk assessment [the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL)]; b) to present a new approach based on the signal-to-noise crossover dose (SNCD); and c) to compare the SNCD and SNCD-based RfD with PoDs and RfDs based on the NOAEL and benchmark dose (BMD) approaches. Methods: The complete NTP database was used as the basis for these analyses, which were performed using the Hill model. We determined NOAELs and estimated corresponding extra risks. Lower 95% confidence bounds on the BMD (BMDLs) corresponding to extra risks of 1%, 5%, and 10% (BMDL01, BMDL05, and BMDL10, respectively) were also estimated. We introduce the SNCD as a new PoD, defined as the dose where the additional risk is equal to the “background noise” (the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the two-sided 90% confidence interval on absolute risk) or a specified fraction thereof. Results: The median risk at the NOAEL was approximately 10%, and the default uncertainty factor (UF = 100) was considered most applicable to the BMDL10. Therefore, we chose a target risk of 1/1,000 (0.1/100) to derive an SNCD-based RfD by linear extrapolation. At the median, this approach provided the same RfD as the BMDL10 divided by the default UF. Conclusions: Under a standard BMD approach, the BMDL10 is considered to be the most appropriate PoD. The SNCD approach, which is based on the lowest dose at which the signal can be reliably detected, warrants further development as a PoD for human health risk assessment. PMID:21813365

RAMAN SPECTRAL CLASSIFICATION OF MINERAL- AND COLLAGEN-BOUND WATER’S ASSOCIATIONS TO ELASTIC AND POST-YIELD MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF CORTICAL BONE

PubMed Central

Unal, Mustafa; Akkus, Ozan

2015-01-01

Water that is bound to bone’s matrix is implied as a predictor of fracture resistance; however, bound water is an elusive variable to be measured nondestructively. To date, the only nondestructive method used for studying bone hydration status is magnetic resonance variants (NMR or MRI). For the first time, bone hydration status was studied by short-wave infrared (SWIR) Raman spectroscopy to investigate associations of mineral-bound and collagen-bound water compartments with mechanical properties. Thirty cortical bone samples were used for quantitative Raman-based water analysis, gravimetric analysis, porosity measurement, and biomechanical testing. A sequential dehydration protocol was developed to replace unbound (heat drying) and bound (ethanol treatment) water in bone. Raman spectra were collected serially to track the OH-stretch band during dehydration. Four previously identified peaks were investigated: I3220/I2949, I3325/I2949 and I3453/I2949 reflect status of organic-matrix related water (mostly collagen-related water) compartments and collagen portion of bone while I3584/I2949 reflects status of mineral-related water compartments and mineral portion of bone. These spectroscopic biomarkers were correlated with elastic and post-yield mechanical properties of bone. Collagen-water related biomarkers (I3220/I2949 and I3325/I2949) correlated significantly and positively with toughness (R2=0.81 and R2=0.79; p<0.001) and post-yield toughness (R2=0.65 and R2=0.73; p<0.001). Mineral-water related biomarker correlated significantly and negatively with elastic modulus (R2=0.78; p<0.001) and positively with strength (R2=0.46; p < 0.001). While MR-based techniques have been useful in measuring unbound and bound water, this is the first study which probed bound-water compartments differentially for collagen and mineral-bound water. For the first time, we showed an evidence for contributions of different bound-water compartments to mechanical properties of wet bone and the reported correlations of Raman-based water measurements to mechanical properties underline the necessity for enabling approaches to assess these new biomarkers noninvasively in vivo to improve the current diagnosis of those who may be at risk of bone fracture due to aging and diseases. PMID:26211992

Analysis of the Military Medical Retirement System

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

Willingness-to-pay ( WTP ) studies examine how much an individual is willing to pay in order to decrease their risk of death. Contingent valuation...lacks a budgetary constraint, while the WTP approach is bound by the limits of one’s budget (EPA 1990: I-1). WTP is further distinguished into two...that reduction in the risk of death” (Lanoie et al 1995: 236). The summation of each person’s WTP is the overall value of statistical life. The

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC`s PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

The practical paradox of technology: The influence of communication technology use on employee burnout and engagement

PubMed Central

Ter Hoeven, Claartje L.; van Zoonen, Ward; Fonner, Kathryn L.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Technological advancements in the workplace frequently have produced contradictory effects by facilitating accessibility and efficiency while increasing interruptions and unpredictability. We combine insights from organizational paradoxes and the job demands–resources model to construct a framework identifying positive and negative mechanisms in the relationship between communication technology use (CTU) and employee well-being, operationalized as work engagement and burnout. In this study of Dutch workers, we demonstrate that CTU increases well-being through positive pathways (accessibility and efficiency) and decreases well-being through negative pathways (interruptions and unpredictability). We highlight the importance of (1) investigating CTU resources and demands simultaneously to grasp the relationship between CTU and employee well-being, and (2) considering CTU's downsides to successfully implement new communication technologies and flexible work designs. PMID:27226694

Protection for Children Born Through Assisted Reproductive Technologies Act, B.E. 2558: The Changing Profile of Surrogacy in Thailand

PubMed Central

Stasi, Alessandro

2017-01-01

The National Legislative Assembly of Thailand has enacted on February 19, 2015 the Protection for Children Born through Assisted Reproductive Technologies Act (ART Act). Its primary objective aims at protecting children born through assisted reproductive technologies and providing the legal procedures that the intended parents must follow. The focus of this article is to discuss the ongoing issues involving assisted reproduction in Thailand. After reviewing the past legal framework surrounding surrogate motherhood and the downsides of the assisted reproductive technology market in Thailand, the article will discuss the new ART Act and its regulatory framework. It will conclude that although the new law contains some flaws and limitations, it has so far been successful in tackling surrogacy trafficking and preventing reproductive scandals from occurring again. PMID:29386954

Protection for Children Born Through Assisted Reproductive Technologies Act, B.E. 2558: The Changing Profile of Surrogacy in Thailand.

PubMed

Stasi, Alessandro

2017-01-01

The National Legislative Assembly of Thailand has enacted on February 19, 2015 the Protection for Children Born through Assisted Reproductive Technologies Act (ART Act). Its primary objective aims at protecting children born through assisted reproductive technologies and providing the legal procedures that the intended parents must follow. The focus of this article is to discuss the ongoing issues involving assisted reproduction in Thailand. After reviewing the past legal framework surrounding surrogate motherhood and the downsides of the assisted reproductive technology market in Thailand, the article will discuss the new ART Act and its regulatory framework. It will conclude that although the new law contains some flaws and limitations, it has so far been successful in tackling surrogacy trafficking and preventing reproductive scandals from occurring again.

Manipulation of P2X Receptor Activities by Light Stimulation.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Seong

2016-01-01

P2X receptors are involved in amplification of inflammatory responses in peripheral nociceptive fibers and in mediating pain-related signals to the CNS. Control of P2X activation has significant importance in managing unwanted hypersensitive neuron responses. To overcome the limitations of chemical ligand treatment, optical stimulation methods of optogenetics and photoswitching achieve efficient control of P2X activation while allowing specificity at the target site and convenient stimulation by light illumination. There are many potential applications for photosensitive elements, such as improved uncaging methods, photoisomerizable ligands, photoswitches, and gold nanoparticles. Each technique has both advantages and downsides, and techniques are selected according to the purpose of the application. Technical advances not only provide novel approaches to manage inflammation or pain mediated by P2X receptors but also suggest a similar approach for controlling other ion channels.

Antiprotozoal Nitazoxanide Derivatives: Synthesis, Bioassays and QSAR Study Combined with Docking for Mechanistic Insight

PubMed Central

Scior, Thomas; Lozano-Aponte, Jorge; Ajmani, Subhash; Hernández-Montero, Eduardo; Chávez-Silva, Fabiola; Hernández-Núñez, Emanuel; Moo-Puc, Rosa; Fraguela-Collar, Andres; Navarrete-Vázquez, Gabriel

2015-01-01

In view of the serious health problems concerning infectious diseases in heavily populated areas, we followed the strategy of lead compound diversification to evaluate the near-by chemical space for new organic compounds. To this end, twenty derivatives of nitazoxanide (NTZ) were synthesized and tested for activity against Entamoeba histolytica parasites. To ensure drug-likeliness and activity relatedness of the new compounds, the synthetic work was assisted by a quantitative structure-activity relationships study (QSAR). Many of the inherent downsides – well-known to QSAR practitioners – we circumvented thanks to workarounds which we proposed in prior QSAR publication. To gain further mechanistic insight on a molecular level, ligand-enzyme docking simulations were carried out since NTZ is known to inhibit the protozoal pyruvate ferredoxin oxidoreductase (PFOR) enzyme as its biomolecular target. PMID:25872791

Shelter recovery in urban Haiti after the earthquake: the dual role of social capital.

PubMed

Rahill, Guitele J; Ganapati, N Emel; Clérismé, J Calixte; Mukherji, Anuradha

2014-04-01

This paper documents the culture-specific understanding of social capital among Haitians and examines its benefits and downsides in post-disaster shelter recovery following the 12 January 2010 earthquake. The case study of shelter recovery processes in three socioeconomically diverse communities (Pétion-Ville, Delmas and Canapé Vert) in Port-au-Prince suggests that social capital plays dual roles in post-disaster shelter recovery of the displaced population in Haiti. On the one hand, it provides enhanced access to shelter-related resources for those with connections. On the other hand, it accentuates pre-existing inequalities or creates new inequalities among displaced Haitians. In some cases, such inequalities lead to tensions between the haves and have-nots and instigate violence among the displaced. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

t4 Workshop Report*

PubMed Central

Alépée, Natalie; Bahinski, Anthony; Daneshian, Mardas; De Wever, Bart; Fritsche, Ellen; Goldberg, Alan; Hansmann, Jan; Hartung, Thomas; Haycock, John; Hogberg, Helena T.; Hoelting, Lisa; Kelm, Jens M.; Kadereit, Suzanne; McVey, Emily; Landsiedel, Robert; Leist, Marcel; Lübberstedt, Marc; Noor, Fozia; Pellevoisin, Christian; Petersohn, Dirk; Pfannenbecker, Uwe; Reisinger, Kerstin; Ramirez, Tzutzuy; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Schäfer-Korting, Monika; Zeilinger, Katrin; Zurich, Marie-Gabriele

2016-01-01

Summary Integrated approaches using different in vitro methods in combination with bioinformatics can (i) increase the success rate and speed of drug development; (ii) improve the accuracy of toxicological risk assessment; and (iii) increase our understanding of disease. Three-dimensional (3D) cell culture models are important building blocks of this strategy which has emerged during the last years. The majority of these models are organotypic, i.e., they aim to reproduce major functions of an organ or organ system. This implies in many cases that more than one cell type forms the 3D structure, and often matrix elements play an important role. This review summarizes the state of the art concerning commonalities of the different models. For instance, the theory of mass transport/metabolite exchange in 3D systems and the special analytical requirements for test endpoints in organotypic cultures are discussed in detail. In the next part, 3D model systems for selected organs – liver, lung, skin, brain – are presented and characterized in dedicated chapters. Also, 3D approaches to the modeling of tumors are presented and discussed. All chapters give a historical background, illustrate the large variety of approaches, and highlight up- and downsides as well as specific requirements. Moreover, they refer to the application in disease modeling, drug discovery and safety assessment. Finally, consensus recommendations indicate a roadmap for the successful implementation of 3D models in routine screening. It is expected that the use of such models will accelerate progress by reducing error rates and wrong predictions from compound testing. PMID:25027500

Proton therapy for locally advanced breast cancer: A systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Kammerer, Emmanuel; Guevelou, Jennifer Le; Chaikh, Abdulhamid; Danhier, Serge; Geffrelot, Julien; Levy, Christelle; Saloux, Eric; Habrand, Jean-Louis; Thariat, Juliette

2018-02-01

Radiation therapy plays a major role in the management of adjuvant breast cancer with nodal involvement, with an iatrogenic increase of cardio-vascular risk. Photon therapy, even with intensity modulation, has the downsides of high mean heart dose and heterogeneous target coverage, particularly in the case of internal mammary irradiation. This systematic review of the literature aims to evaluate proton therapy in locally advanced breast cancer. PubMed was searched for original full-text articles with the following search terms: «Proton Therapy» and «Breast Cancer». On-going trials were collected using the words "Breast Cancer" and "Protons". 13 articles met the criteria: 6 with passive proton therapy (Double Scattering), 5 with Pencil Beam Scanning (PBS) and 2 with a combination of both. Proton therapy offered a better target coverage than photons, even compared with intensity modulation radiation therapy (including static or rotational IMRT or tomotherapy). With proton therapy, volumes receiving 95% of the dose were around 98%, with low volumes receiving 105% of the dose. Proton therapy often decreased mean heart dose by a factor of 2 or 3, i.e. 1 Gy with proton therapy versus 3 Gy with conventional 3D, and 6 Gy for IMRT. Lungs were better spared with proton therapy than with photon therapy. Cutaneous toxicity observed with double scattering is improved with PBS. Proton therapy reduces mean heart dose in breast cancer irradiation, probably reducing late cardio-vascular toxicity. Large clinical studies will likely confirm a clinical benefit of proton therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BIOACCESSIBILITY OF ARSENIC BOUND TO CORUNDUM USING A SIMULATED GASTROINTESTINAL SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Ingestion of soil contaminated with arsenic is an important pathway for human exposure to arsenic. The risk posed by ingestion of arsenic-contaminated soil depends on how much arsenic is dissolved in the gastrointestinal tract. Aluminum oxides are common components in the soil a...

Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts in the New Space Paradigm: When is Better the Enemy of Good Enough?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

La Bel, Kenneth A.; Sampson, Michael J.

2016-01-01

As the space business rapidly evolves to accommodate a lower cost model of development and operation via concepts such as commercial space and small spacecraft (aka, CubeSats), traditional EEE parts screening and qualification methods are being scrutinized under a risk-reward trade space. In this presentation, two basic concepts will be the overarching theme: 1) The movement from complete risk aversion EEE parts methods to managing and/or accepting risk via alternate approaches; and, 2) A discussion of over-design focusing on both electrical design performance and bounding margins.

Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts in the New Space Paradigm: When is Better the Enemy of Good Enough?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaBel, Kenneth A.; Sampson, Michael J.

2016-01-01

As the space business rapidly evolves to accommodate a lower cost model of development and operation via concepts such as commercial space and small spacecraft (aka, CubeSats), traditional EEE parts screening and qualification methods are being scrutinized under a risk-reward trade space. In this presentation, two basic concepts will be the overarching theme: 1) The movement from complete risk aversion EEE parts methods to managing and or accepting risk via alternate approaches; and, 2) A discussion of over-design focusing on both electrical design performance and bounding margins.

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development

PubMed Central

Wu, Song; Powers, Scott; Zhu, Wei; Hannun, Yusuf A

2015-01-01

Summary Recent research has highlighted a strong correlation between tissue-specific cancer risk and the lifetime number of tissue-specific stem cell divisions. Whether such correlation implies a high unavoidable intrinsic cancer risk has become a key public health debate with dissemination of the ‘bad luck’ hypothesis. Here we provide evidence that intrinsic risk factors contribute only modestly (<10~30%) to cancer development. First, we demonstrate that the correlation between stem-cell division and cancer risk does not distinguish between the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Next, we show that intrinsic risk is better estimated by the lower bound risk controlling for total stem cell divisions. Finally, we show that the rates of endogenous mutation accumulation by intrinsic processes are not sufficient to account for the observed cancer risks. Collectively, we conclude that cancer risk is heavily influenced by extrinsic factors. These results carry immense consequences for strategizing cancer prevention, research, and public health. PMID:26675728

Syphilis Among U.S.-Bound Refugees, 2009-2013.

PubMed

Nyangoma, E N; Olson, C K; Painter, J A; Posey, D L; Stauffer, W M; Naughton, M; Zhou, W; Kamb, M; Benoit, S R

2017-08-01

U.S. immigration regulations require clinical and serologic screening for syphilis for all U.S.-bound refugees 15 years of age and older. We reviewed syphilis screening results for all U.S.-bound refugees from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2013. We calculated age-adjusted prevalence by region and nationality and assessed factors associated with syphilis seropositivity using multivariable log binomial regression models. Among 233,446 refugees, we identified 874 syphilis cases (373 cases per 100,000 refugees). The highest overall age-adjusted prevalence rates of syphilis seropositivity were observed among refugees from Africa (1340 cases per 100,000), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (397 cases per 100,000). In most regions, male sex, increasing age, and living in non-refugee camp settings were associated with syphilis seropositivity. Future analysis of test results, stage of infection, and treatment delivery overseas is warranted in order to determine the extent of transmission risk and benefits of the screening program.

Generalized Scalar-on-Image Regression Models via Total Variation.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao; Zhu, Hongtu

2017-01-01

The use of imaging markers to predict clinical outcomes can have a great impact in public health. The aim of this paper is to develop a class of generalized scalar-on-image regression models via total variation (GSIRM-TV), in the sense of generalized linear models, for scalar response and imaging predictor with the presence of scalar covariates. A key novelty of GSIRM-TV is that it is assumed that the slope function (or image) of GSIRM-TV belongs to the space of bounded total variation in order to explicitly account for the piecewise smooth nature of most imaging data. We develop an efficient penalized total variation optimization to estimate the unknown slope function and other parameters. We also establish nonasymptotic error bounds on the excess risk. These bounds are explicitly specified in terms of sample size, image size, and image smoothness. Our simulations demonstrate a superior performance of GSIRM-TV against many existing approaches. We apply GSIRM-TV to the analysis of hippocampus data obtained from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset.

Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear population ecology models.

PubMed

Enszer, Joshua A; Andrei Măceș, D; Stadtherr, Mark A

2015-09-01

Mathematical models in population ecology often involve parameters that are empirically determined and inherently uncertain, with probability distributions for the uncertainties not known precisely. Propagating such imprecise uncertainties rigorously through a model to determine their effect on model outputs can be a challenging problem. We illustrate here a method for the direct propagation of uncertainties represented by probability bounds though nonlinear, continuous-time, dynamic models in population ecology. This makes it possible to determine rigorous bounds on the probability that some specified outcome for a population is achieved, which can be a core problem in ecosystem modeling for risk assessment and management. Results can be obtained at a computational cost that is considerably less than that required by statistical sampling methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The method is demonstrated using three example systems, with focus on a model of an experimental aquatic food web subject to the effects of contamination by ionic liquids, a new class of potentially important industrial chemicals. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Phytochemical profiles and antioxidant activity of processed brown rice products.

PubMed

Gong, Er Sheng; Luo, Shunjing; Li, Tong; Liu, Chengmei; Zhang, Guowen; Chen, Jun; Zeng, Zicong; Liu, Rui Hai

2017-10-01

The phytochemical profiles and antioxidant activity of free, soluble-conjugated, and bound fractions of brown rice and its processed products (textured rice, cooked rice and rice noodle) were studied. Nineteen phenolic acids were identified. Trans-ferulic acid was the most abundant monomeric phenolic acid with trans-trans-8-O-4' diferulic acid being most abundant diferulic acid. Processing increased the content of free phenolic acids, but decreased the content of soluble-conjugated phenolic acids. The content of bound phenolic acids was increased by improved extrusion cooking technology and cooking, but not affected by rice noodle extrusion. The total phenolic contents and antioxidant activities of free and soluble-conjugated fractions were decreased after processing, whereas those of bound fraction were increased by improved extrusion cooking technology and cooking, but not affected by rice noodle extrusion. Results indicated that whole foods designed for reducing chronic disease risk need to consider the effects of processing on phytochemical profiles and antioxidant activity of whole grains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Water Compartments in the Material Properties of Cortical Bone

PubMed Central

Granke, Mathilde; Does, Mark D.; Nyman, Jeffry S.

2015-01-01

Comprising ~20% of the volume, water is a key determinant of the mechanical behavior of cortical bone. It essentially exists in 2 general compartments: within pores and bound to the matrix. The amount of pore water – residing in vascular-lacunar-canalicular space – primarily reflects intracortical porosity (i.e., open spaces within the matrix largely due to Haversian canals and resorption sites), and as such, is inversely proportional to most mechanical properties of bone. Movement of water according to pressure gradients generated during dynamic loading likely confers hydraulic stiffening to the bone as well. Nonetheless, bound water is a primary contributor to mechanical behavior of bone in that it is responsible for giving collagen the ability to confer ductility or plasticity to bone (i.e., allows deformation to continue once permanent damage begins to form in the matrix) and decreases with age along with fracture resistance. Thus, dehydration by air-drying or by solvents with less hydrogen bonding capacity causes bone to become brittle, but interestingly, it also increases stiffness and strength across the hierarchical levels of organization. Despite the importance of matrix hydration to fracture resistance, little is known about why bound water decreases with age in hydrated human bone. Using 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), both bound and pore water concentrations in bone can be measured ex vivo because the proton relaxation times differ between the two water compartments giving rise to two distinct signals. There are also emerging techniques to measure bound and pore water in vivo with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). NMR/MRI-derived bound water concentration is positively correlated with both strength and toughness of hydrated bone, and may become a useful clinical marker of fracture risk. PMID:25783011

The Role of Water Compartments in the Material Properties of Cortical Bone.

PubMed

Granke, Mathilde; Does, Mark D; Nyman, Jeffry S

2015-09-01

Comprising ~20% of the volume, water is a key determinant of the mechanical behavior of cortical bone. It essentially exists in two general compartments: within pores and bound to the matrix. The amount of pore water-residing in the vascular-lacunar-canalicular space-primarily reflects intracortical porosity (i.e., open spaces within the matrix largely due to Haversian canals and resorption sites) and as such is inversely proportional to most mechanical properties of bone. Movement of water according to pressure gradients generated during dynamic loading likely confers hydraulic stiffening to the bone as well. Nonetheless, bound water is a primary contributor to the mechanical behavior of bone in that it is responsible for giving collagen the ability to confer ductility or plasticity to bone (i.e., allows deformation to continue once permanent damage begins to form in the matrix) and decreases with age along with fracture resistance. Thus, dehydration by air-drying or by solvents with less hydrogen bonding capacity causes bone to become brittle, but interestingly, it also increases stiffness and strength across the hierarchical levels of organization. Despite the importance of matrix hydration to fracture resistance, little is known about why bound water decreases with age in hydrated human bone. Using (1)H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), both bound and pore water concentrations in bone can be measured ex vivo because the proton relaxation times differ between the two water compartments, giving rise to two distinct signals. There are also emerging techniques to measure bound and pore water in vivo with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The NMR/MRI-derived bound water concentration is positively correlated with both the strength and toughness of hydrated bone and may become a useful clinical marker of fracture risk.

Minimax Quantum Tomography: Estimators and Relative Entropy Bounds.

PubMed

Ferrie, Christopher; Blume-Kohout, Robin

2016-03-04

A minimax estimator has the minimum possible error ("risk") in the worst case. We construct the first minimax estimators for quantum state tomography with relative entropy risk. The minimax risk of nonadaptive tomography scales as O(1/sqrt[N])-in contrast to that of classical probability estimation, which is O(1/N)-where N is the number of copies of the quantum state used. We trace this deficiency to sampling mismatch: future observations that determine risk may come from a different sample space than the past data that determine the estimate. This makes minimax estimators very biased, and we propose a computationally tractable alternative with similar behavior in the worst case, but superior accuracy on most states.

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

PubMed

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Characterization of particulate-bound PAHs in rural households using different types of domestic energy in Henan Province, China.

PubMed

Wu, Fuyong; Liu, Xueping; Wang, Wei; Man, Yu Bon; Chan, Chuen Yu; Liu, Wenxin; Tao, Shu; Wong, Ming Hung

2015-12-01

The concentrations and composition of sixteen PAHs adsorbed to respirable particulate matter (PM10≤10 μm) and inhalable particulate matter (PM2.5≤2.5 μm) were determined during autumn and winter in rural households of Henan Province, China, which used four types of domestic energy [crop residues, coal, liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity] for cooking and heating. The present results show that there were significantly (p<0.05) seasonal variations of particulate-bound PAHs in the rural households. The daily mean concentrations of particulate-bound PAHs in the kitchens, sitting rooms and outdoors were apparently higher in winter than those in autumn, except those in the kitchens using coal. The present study also shows that there were obvious variations of particulate-bound PAHs among the four types of domestic energy used in the rural households. The households using LPG for cooking can, at least in some circumstances, have higher concentrations of PAHs in the kitchens than using crop residues or electricity. In addition, using coal in the sitting rooms seemed to result in apparently higher concentrations of particulate-bound PAHs than using the other three types of domestic energy during winter. The most severe contamination occurred in the kitchens using LPG in winter, where the daily mean concentrations of PM2.5-bound PAHs were up to 762.5±931.2 ng m(-3), indicating that there was serious health risk of inhalation exposure to PAHs in the rural households of Henan Province. Rural residents' exposure to PM2.5-bound PAHs in kitchens would be roughly reduced by 69.8% and 85.5% via replacing coal or crop residues with electricity in autumn. The pilot research would provide important supplementary information to the indoor air pollution studies in rural area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repertoire of theileria equi antigens bound by equine antibody during persistent phase of infection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Theileriosis in horses and cattle is caused by tick-borne Apicomplexa parasites that cause death or persist for life in their respective hosts. Due to transmission risk associated with persistence, infection severely limits movement of horses and cattle between countries. The recent reemergence of T...

Prisoner's Dilemma and Chicken: A Communications Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dauber, Cori

1990-01-01

Analyzes nuclear strategic doctrine by applying understandings of human communication processes to deterrence theory and game theory. Focuses on communication as risk. Demonstrates flaws in game theory because of its mechanistic view, stressing that communication is a process not an event, and actions are bound by cultural dispositions. Advocates…

BIOACCESSIBILITY OF ARSENIC( V )BOUND TO FERRIHYDRITE USING A SIMULATED GASTROINTESTINAL SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

The risk posed from incidental ingestion of arsenic-contaminated soil may depend on sorption of arsenate (As(V)) to oxide surfaces in soil. Arsenate sorbed to ferrihdrite, a model soil mineral, was used to simulate possible effects on ingestion of soil contaminated with As(V) sor...

Influence of Disinfectant Residual on Biofilm Development, Microbial Ecology, and Pathogen Fate and Transport in Drinking Water Infrastructure

EPA Science Inventory

This project focuses on providing basic data to bound risk estimates resulting from pathogens associated with pipe biofilms. Researchers will compare biofilm pathogen effects under two different disinfection scenarios (free chlorine or chloramines) for a conventionally treated s...

Composition and risk assessment of roasted pyrite ash from fertiliser production.

PubMed

Gabarrón, M; Babur, O; Soriano-Disla, J M; Faz, A; Acosta, J A

2018-06-18

Pyrite ash is a residue from the roasting of pyrite ores to obtain sulphuric acid used in the fertiliser industry and its production is widely extended worldwide. The mismanagement of this waste may result in environmental and health damages due to its physico-chemical characteristics. The main objective of this study was to examine the physico-chemical and mineralogical composition of roasted pyrite ash from an abandoned fertiliser company, and to evaluate the environmental risk caused by the wind and water dispersion of metals posed by this waste. In order to achieve these objectives, a sequential extraction procedure and a physical fractionation into six size fractions: >100, 100-50, 50-20, 20-10, 10-2.5 and < 2.5 μm were applied. Results showed that pyrite ash is composed mainly of iron-oxides such as hematite (46%) and secondary minerals as anglesite and shows high concentrations of Pb (7464 mg kg -1 ), Zn (2663 mg kg -1 ) and Cu (585 mg kg -1 ). The highest Risk Assessment Code (RAC) values were found for Cd, Pb and Zn, bound to the more labile fractions. Conversely, Pb showed the lowest water solubility due to the covering effect provided by a coating of anglesite in the pyrite ash surface. Most of the metals were associated to both the coarsest (>100 μm) and the finest (2.5-10 μm) fractions, although none represented an environmental risk according to the ecological risk index results. However, 30% of the metals were bound to the respirable fraction (≤100 μm) posing a potential risk for human health and a high potential dispersion by wind to the surrounding areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of bioaccessible trace elements in smoke haze aerosols versus urban aerosols using simulated lung fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xian; Betha, Raghu; Tan, Li Yun; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

2016-01-01

Smoke-haze episodes, caused by uncontrolled peat and forest fires, occur almost every year in the South-East Asian region with increased concentrations of PM2.5 (airborne particulate matter (PM) with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm). Particulate-bound trace elements (TrElems), especially carcinogenic and toxic elements, were measured during smoke haze as well as non-haze periods in 2014 as they are considered to be indicators of potential health effects. The bioaccessibilities of 13 TrElems were investigated using two types of simulated lung fluids (SLFs), Gamble's solution and artificial lysosomal fluid (ALF), instead of the commonly used leaching agent (water). The dissolution kinetics was also examined for these TrElems. Many TrElems showed higher solubility in SLFs, and were more soluble in ALF compared to the Gamble's solution. Cu, Mn and Cd were observed to be the most soluble trace elements in ALF, while in Gamble's solution the most soluble trace elements were Cu, Mn and Zn. The dissolution rates were highly variable among the elements. Health risk assessment was conducted based on the measured concentrations of TrElems and their corresponding toxicities for three possible scenarios involving interactions between carcinogenic and toxic TrElems and SLFs, using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) human health risk assessment model. The cumulative cancer risks exceeded the acceptable level (1 in a million i.e. 1 × 10-6). However, the estimation of health quotient (HQ) indicated no significant chronic toxic health effects. The risk assessment results revealed that the assessment of bioaccessibility of particulate-bound TrElems using water as the leaching agent may underestimate the health risk.

Occurrence of 3-monochloropropanediol esters and glycidyl esters in commercial infant formulas in the United States.

PubMed

Leigh, Jessica; MacMahon, Shaun

2017-03-01

This work presents occurrence data for fatty acid esters of 3-chloro-1,2-propanediol (3-MCPD) and glycidol in 98 infant formula samples purchased in the United States. These contaminants are considered potentially carcinogenic and/or genotoxic, making their presence in refined oils and foods a potential health risk. Recently, attention has focused on methodology to quantify MCPD and glycidyl esters in infant formula for risk-assessment purposes. Occurrence data for 3-MCPD and glycidyl esters were produced using a procedure for extracting fat from infant formula and an LC-MS/MS method for analysing fat extracts for intact esters. Infant formulas were produced by seven manufacturers, five of which use palm oil and/or palm olein in their formulations. In formulas containing palm/palm olein, concentrations for bound 3-MCPD and glycidol ranged from 0.021 to 0.92 mg kg - 1 (ppm) and from < LOQ to 0.40 mg kg - 1 (ppm), respectively. Formulas not containing palm/palm olein, bound 3-MCPD and glycidol concentrations ranged from 0.072 to 0.16 mg kg - 1 (ppm) and from 0.005 to 0.15 mg kg - 1 (ppm), respectively. Although formulas from manufacturers A and G did not contain palm/palm olein, formulas from manufacturer E (containing palm olein) had the lowest concentrations of bound 3-MCPD and glycidol, demonstrating the effectiveness of industrial mitigation strategies.

Evidence of trophic transfer of microcystins from the gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis to the fish Gasterosteus aculeatus.

PubMed

Lance, Emilie; Petit, Anais; Sanchez, Wilfried; Paty, Christelle; Gérard, Claudia; Bormans, Myriam

2014-01-01

According to our previous results the gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis exposed to MC-producing cyanobacteria accumulates microcystins (MCs) both as free and covalently bound forms in its tissues, therefore representing a potential risk of MC transfer through the food web. This study demonstrates in a laboratory experiment the transfer of free and bound MCs from L. stagnalis intoxicated by MC-producing Planktothrix agardhii ingestion to the fish Gasterosteus aculeatus. Fish were fed during five days with digestive glands of L. stagnalis containing various concentrations of free and bound MCs, then with toxin-free digestive glands during a 5-day depuration period. MC accumulation was measured in gastropod digestive gland and in various fish organs (liver, muscle, kidney, and gills). The impact on fish was evaluated through detoxification enzyme (glutathion-S-transferase, glutathion peroxydase and superoxyde dismutase) activities, hepatic histopathology, and modifications in gill ventilation, feeding and locomotion. G. aculeatus ingestion rate was similar with intoxicated and toxin-free diet. Fish accumulated MCs (up to 3.96±0.14μgg -1 DW) in all organs and in decreasing order in liver, muscle, kidney and gills. Hepatic histopathology was moderate. Glutathion peroxydase was activated in gills during intoxication suggesting a slight reactive oxygen species production, but without any impact on gill ventilation. Intoxication via ingestion of MC-intoxicated snails impacted fish locomotion. Intoxicated fish remained significantly less mobile than controls during the intoxication period possibly due to a lower health condition, whereas they showed a greater mobility during the depuration period that might be related to an acute foraging for food. During depuration, MC elimination was total in gills and kidney, but partial in liver and muscle. Our results assess the MC transfer from gastropods to fish and the potential risk induced by bound MCs in the food web. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Foreign Language Learning Difficulties and Teaching Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banks, Tiffini

2008-01-01

Beginning foreign language (FL) courses in high school often have high numbers of learning disabled (LED) and at-risk students, perhaps because many students who are considered to be college bound begin foreign language study in middle school. This paper examines FL difficulties as well as effective strategies that others have used to conquer…

Suspect until Proven Guilty a Problematization of State Dossier Systems via Two Case Studies: The United States and China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farrall, Kenneth N.

2009-01-01

This dissertation problematizes the "state dossier system" (SDS): the production and accumulation of personal information on citizen subjects exceeding the reasonable bounds of risk management. SDS--comprising interconnecting subsystems of records and identification--damage individual autonomy and self-determination, impacting not only…

Barriers to Energy Efficiency and the Uptake of Green Revolving Funds in Canadian Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maiorano, John; Savan, Beth

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the barriers to the implementation of energy efficiency projects in Canadian universities, including access to capital, bounded rationality, hidden costs, imperfect information, risk and split incentives. Methods to address these barriers are investigated, including evaluating the efficacy of…

Ant groups optimally amplify the effect of transiently informed individuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelblum, Aviram; Pinkoviezky, Itai; Fonio, Ehud; Ghosh, Abhijit; Gov, Nir; Feinerman, Ofer

2015-07-01

To cooperatively transport a large load, it is important that carriers conform in their efforts and align their forces. A downside of behavioural conformism is that it may decrease the group's responsiveness to external information. Combining experiment and theory, we show how ants optimize collective transport. On the single-ant scale, optimization stems from decision rules that balance individuality and compliance. Macroscopically, these rules poise the system at the transition between random walk and ballistic motion where the collective response to the steering of a single informed ant is maximized. We relate this peak in response to the divergence of susceptibility at a phase transition. Our theoretical models predict that the ant-load system can be transitioned through the critical point of this mesoscopic system by varying its size; we present experiments supporting these predictions. Our findings show that efficient group-level processes can arise from transient amplification of individual-based knowledge.

The hubris hypothesis: The downside of comparative optimism displays.

PubMed

Hoorens, Vera; Van Damme, Carolien; Helweg-Larsen, Marie; Sedikides, Constantine

2017-04-01

According to the hubris hypothesis, observers respond more unfavorably to individuals who express their positive self-views comparatively than to those who express their positive self-views non-comparatively, because observers infer that the former hold a more disparaging view of others and particularly of observers. Two experiments extended the hubris hypothesis in the domain of optimism. Observers attributed less warmth (but not less competence) to, and showed less interest in affiliating with, an individual displaying comparative optimism (the belief that one's future will be better than others' future) than with an individual displaying absolute optimism (the belief that one's future will be good). Observers responded differently to individuals displaying comparative versus absolute optimism, because they inferred that the former held a gloomier view of the observers' future. Consistent with previous research, observers still attributed more positive traits to a comparative or absolute optimist than to a comparative or absolute pessimist. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Is There a Downside to Anticipating the Upside? Children's and Adults' Reasoning About How Prior Expectations Shape Future Emotions.

PubMed

Lara, Karen Hjortsvang; Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen; Kramer, Hannah J

2017-11-24

Four- to 10-year-olds and adults (N = 205) responded to vignettes involving three individuals with different expectations (high, low, and no) for a future event. Participants judged characters' pre-outcome emotions, as well as predicted and explained their feelings following three events (positive, attenuated, and negative). Although adults rated high-expectation characters more negatively than low-expectation characters after all outcomes, children shared this intuition starting at 6-7 years for negative outcomes, 8-10 years for attenuated, and never for positive. Comparison to baseline (no expectation) indicated that understanding the costs of high expectations emerges first and remains more robust across age than recognition that low expectations carry benefits. Explanation analyses further clarified this developing awareness about the relation between thoughts and emotions over time. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Cloud Computing for radiologists.

PubMed

Kharat, Amit T; Safvi, Amjad; Thind, Ss; Singh, Amarjit

2012-07-01

Cloud computing is a concept wherein a computer grid is created using the Internet with the sole purpose of utilizing shared resources such as computer software, hardware, on a pay-per-use model. Using Cloud computing, radiology users can efficiently manage multimodality imaging units by using the latest software and hardware without paying huge upfront costs. Cloud computing systems usually work on public, private, hybrid, or community models. Using the various components of a Cloud, such as applications, client, infrastructure, storage, services, and processing power, Cloud computing can help imaging units rapidly scale and descale operations and avoid huge spending on maintenance of costly applications and storage. Cloud computing allows flexibility in imaging. It sets free radiology from the confines of a hospital and creates a virtual mobile office. The downsides to Cloud computing involve security and privacy issues which need to be addressed to ensure the success of Cloud computing in the future.

Principles for high-quality, high-value testing.

PubMed

Power, Michael; Fell, Greg; Wright, Michael

2013-02-01

A survey of doctors working in two large NHS hospitals identified over 120 laboratory tests, imaging investigations and investigational procedures that they considered not to be overused. A common suggestion in this survey was that more training was required. And, this prompted the development of a list of core principles for high-quality, high-value testing. The list can be used as a framework for training and as a reference source. The core principles are: (1) Base testing practices on the best available evidence. (2) Apply the evidence on test performance with careful judgement. (3) Test efficiently. (4) Consider the value (and affordability) of a test before requesting it. (5) Be aware of the downsides and drivers of overdiagnosis. (6) Confront uncertainties. (7) Be patient-centred in your approach. (8) Consider ethical issues. (9) Be aware of normal cognitive limitations and biases when testing. (10) Follow the 'knowledge journey' when teaching and learning these core principles.

Wrinkled Few-Layer Graphene as Highly Efficient Load Bearer.

PubMed

Androulidakis, Charalampos; Koukaras, Emmanuel N; Rahova, Jaroslava; Sampathkumar, Krishna; Parthenios, John; Papagelis, Konstantinos; Frank, Otakar; Galiotis, Costas

2017-08-09

Multilayered graphitic materials are not suitable as load-bearers due to their inherent weak interlayer bonding (for example, graphite is a solid lubricant in certain applications). This situation is largely improved when two-dimensional (2D) materials such as a monolayer (SLG) graphene are employed. The downside in these cases is the presence of thermally or mechanically induced wrinkles which are ubiquitous in 2D materials. Here we set out to examine the effect of extensive large wavelength/amplitude wrinkling on the stress transfer capabilities of exfoliated simply supported graphene flakes. Contrary to common belief we present clear evidence that this type of "corrugation" enhances the load-bearing capacity of few-layer graphene as compared to "flat" specimens. This effect is the result of the significant increase of the graphene/polymer interfacial shear stress per increment of applied strain due to wrinkling and paves the way for designing affordable graphene composites with highly improved stress-transfer efficiency.

Robust Learning of High-dimensional Biological Networks with Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nägele, Andreas; Dejori, Mathäus; Stetter, Martin

Structure learning of Bayesian networks applied to gene expression data has become a potentially useful method to estimate interactions between genes. However, the NP-hardness of Bayesian network structure learning renders the reconstruction of the full genetic network with thousands of genes unfeasible. Consequently, the maximal network size is usually restricted dramatically to a small set of genes (corresponding with variables in the Bayesian network). Although this feature reduction step makes structure learning computationally tractable, on the downside, the learned structure might be adversely affected due to the introduction of missing genes. Additionally, gene expression data are usually very sparse with respect to the number of samples, i.e., the number of genes is much greater than the number of different observations. Given these problems, learning robust network features from microarray data is a challenging task. This chapter presents several approaches tackling the robustness issue in order to obtain a more reliable estimation of learned network features.

Manipulation of P2X Receptor Activities by Light Stimulation

PubMed Central

Kim, Sang Seong

2016-01-01

P2X receptors are involved in amplification of inflammatory responses in peripheral nociceptive fibers and in mediating pain-related signals to the CNS. Control of P2X activation has significant importance in managing unwanted hypersensitive neuron responses. To overcome the limitations of chemical ligand treatment, optical stimulation methods of optogenetics and photoswitching achieve efficient control of P2X activation while allowing specificity at the target site and convenient stimulation by light illumination. There are many potential applications for photosensitive elements, such as improved uncaging methods, photoisomerizable ligands, photoswitches, and gold nanoparticles. Each technique has both advantages and downsides, and techniques are selected according to the purpose of the application. Technical advances not only provide novel approaches to manage inflammation or pain mediated by P2X receptors but also suggest a similar approach for controlling other ion channels. PMID:26884649

Exploiting Concurrent Wake-Up Transmissions Using Beat Frequencies.

PubMed

Kumberg, Timo; Schindelhauer, Christian; Reindl, Leonhard

2017-07-26

Wake-up receivers are the natural choice for wireless sensor networks because of their ultra-low power consumption and their ability to provide communications on demand. A downside of ultra-low power wake-up receivers is their low sensitivity caused by the passive demodulation of the carrier signal. In this article, we present a novel communication scheme by exploiting purposefully-interfering out-of-tune signals of two or more wireless sensor nodes, which produce the wake-up signal as the beat frequency of superposed carriers. Additionally, we introduce a communication algorithm and a flooding protocol based on this approach. Our experiments show that our approach increases the received signal strength up to 3 dB, improving communication robustness and reliability. Furthermore, we demonstrate the feasibility of our newly-developed protocols by means of an outdoor experiment and an indoor setup consisting of several nodes. The flooding algorithm achieves almost a 100% wake-up rate in less than 20 ms.

Three critical questions for future research on lesbian relationships.

PubMed

Diamond, Lisa M

2017-01-02

In this article I discuss three questions that should be priorities for future research on lesbian love and relationships. The first question concerns the very definition of "lesbian relationship," given how many women may be engaged in same-sex relationships without identifying as lesbian. The second question concerns the potential influence of childhood neglect and abuse on adult women's same-sex relationships, a topic that has important implications for both psychological well-being and relationship functioning. The third question concerns the potential downsides of legal marriage for women's same-sex relationships, a topic that is particularly important in light of the newfound legal recognition of same-sex marriage in all 50 states. Although there are many understudied questions in the domain of women's same-sex relationships, research on these three questions has particularly strong potential to advance our understanding of lesbian love and relationships in important ways.

Rewetting of hot vertical rod during jet impingement surface cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, Chitranjan; Kumar, Ravi; Gupta, Akhilesh; Chatterjee, Barun

2016-06-01

A stainless steel (SS-316) vertical rod of 12 mm diameter at 800 ± 10 °C initial temperature was cooled by normal impinging round water jet. The surface rewetting phenomenon was investigated for a range of jet diameter 2.5-4.8 mm and jet Reynolds number 5000-24,000 using a straight tube type nozzle. The investigation were made from the stagnation point to maximum 40 mm downstream locations, simultaneously for both upside and downside directions. The cooling performance of the vertical rod was evaluated on the basis of rewetting parameters i.e. rewetting temperature, wetting delay, rewetting velocity and the maximum surface heat flux. Two separate Correlations have been proposed for the dimensionless rewetting velocity in terms of rewetting number and the maximum surface heat flux that predicts the experimental data within an error band of ±20 and ±15 % respectively.

Economic assessments of small-scale drinking-water interventions in pursuit of MDG target 7C.

PubMed

Cameron, John; Jagals, Paul; Hunter, Paul R; Pedley, Steve; Pond, Katherine

2011-12-01

This paper uses an applied rural case study of a safer water intervention in South Africa to illustrate how three levels of economic assessment can be used to understand the impact of the intervention on people's well-being. It is set in the context of Millennium Development Goal 7 which sets a target (7C) for safe drinking-water provision and the challenges of reaching people in remote rural areas with relatively small-scale schemes. The assessment moves from cost efficiency to cost effectiveness to a full social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) with an associated sensitivity test. In addition to demonstrating techniques of analysis, the paper brings out many of the challenges in understanding how safer drinking-water impacts on people's livelihoods. The SCBA shows the case study intervention is justified economically, though the sensitivity test suggests 'downside' vulnerability. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plasticity in the Human Visual Cortex: An Ophthalmology-Based Perspective

PubMed Central

Rosa, Andreia Martins; Silva, Maria Fátima; Murta, Joaquim

2013-01-01

Neuroplasticity refers to the ability of the brain to reorganize the function and structure of its connections in response to changes in the environment. Adult human visual cortex shows several manifestations of plasticity, such as perceptual learning and adaptation, working under the top-down influence of attention. Plasticity results from the interplay of several mechanisms, including the GABAergic system, epigenetic factors, mitochondrial activity, and structural remodeling of synaptic connectivity. There is also a downside of plasticity, that is, maladaptive plasticity, in which there are behavioral losses resulting from plasticity changes in the human brain. Understanding plasticity mechanisms could have major implications in the diagnosis and treatment of ocular diseases, such as retinal disorders, cataract and refractive surgery, amblyopia, and in the evaluation of surgical materials and techniques. Furthermore, eliciting plasticity could open new perspectives in the development of strategies that trigger plasticity for better medical and surgical outcomes. PMID:24205505

Making science worthwhile: still seeking critical, not cosmetic, changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonso, Karen L.

2014-06-01

Tonso's commentary on Sinnes and Løken's paper links what they found to empirical research done in science and engineering career settings. Sinnes and Løken's findings are a welcome addition to a literature dedicated to pointing out, yet again, some of the reasons we have made so little progress reversing gender inequities in the last 35 years. Their critique of Project Lily adds to what we know about initiatives that fail to grasp the futility of depending on either changing women so they become a better fit in STEM fields (few women exist of this sort) or highlighting those aspects of STEM fields perceived as attractive to underrepresented communities (the masculinized downside will still exist). Sinnes and Løken thus join a growing literature calling for cultural change in STEM disciplines and careers and providing a model feminist critique that other scholars can use to challenge similar initiatives.

Cloud Computing for radiologists

PubMed Central

Kharat, Amit T; Safvi, Amjad; Thind, SS; Singh, Amarjit

2012-01-01

Cloud computing is a concept wherein a computer grid is created using the Internet with the sole purpose of utilizing shared resources such as computer software, hardware, on a pay-per-use model. Using Cloud computing, radiology users can efficiently manage multimodality imaging units by using the latest software and hardware without paying huge upfront costs. Cloud computing systems usually work on public, private, hybrid, or community models. Using the various components of a Cloud, such as applications, client, infrastructure, storage, services, and processing power, Cloud computing can help imaging units rapidly scale and descale operations and avoid huge spending on maintenance of costly applications and storage. Cloud computing allows flexibility in imaging. It sets free radiology from the confines of a hospital and creates a virtual mobile office. The downsides to Cloud computing involve security and privacy issues which need to be addressed to ensure the success of Cloud computing in the future. PMID:23599560

Ant groups optimally amplify the effect of transiently informed individuals

PubMed Central

Gelblum, Aviram; Pinkoviezky, Itai; Fonio, Ehud; Ghosh, Abhijit; Gov, Nir; Feinerman, Ofer

2015-01-01

To cooperatively transport a large load, it is important that carriers conform in their efforts and align their forces. A downside of behavioural conformism is that it may decrease the group's responsiveness to external information. Combining experiment and theory, we show how ants optimize collective transport. On the single-ant scale, optimization stems from decision rules that balance individuality and compliance. Macroscopically, these rules poise the system at the transition between random walk and ballistic motion where the collective response to the steering of a single informed ant is maximized. We relate this peak in response to the divergence of susceptibility at a phase transition. Our theoretical models predict that the ant-load system can be transitioned through the critical point of this mesoscopic system by varying its size; we present experiments supporting these predictions. Our findings show that efficient group-level processes can arise from transient amplification of individual-based knowledge. PMID:26218613

Segmentation-free image processing and analysis of precipitate shapes in 2D and 3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bales, Ben; Pollock, Tresa; Petzold, Linda

2017-06-01

Segmentation based image analysis techniques are routinely employed for quantitative analysis of complex microstructures containing two or more phases. The primary advantage of these approaches is that spatial information on the distribution of phases is retained, enabling subjective judgements of the quality of the segmentation and subsequent analysis process. The downside is that computing micrograph segmentations with data from morphologically complex microstructures gathered with error-prone detectors is challenging and, if no special care is taken, the artifacts of the segmentation will make any subsequent analysis and conclusions uncertain. In this paper we demonstrate, using a two phase nickel-base superalloy microstructure as a model system, a new methodology for analysis of precipitate shapes using a segmentation-free approach based on the histogram of oriented gradients feature descriptor, a classic tool in image analysis. The benefits of this methodology for analysis of microstructure in two and three-dimensions are demonstrated.

Inaugurating Rationalization: Three Field Studies Find Increased Rationalization When Anticipated Realities Become Current.

PubMed

Laurin, Kristin

2018-04-01

People will often rationalize the status quo, reconstruing it in an exaggeratedly positive light. They will even rationalize the status quo they anticipate, emphasizing the upsides and minimizing the downsides of sociopolitical realities they expect to take effect. Drawing on recent findings on the psychological triggers of rationalization, I present results from three field studies, one of which was preregistered, testing the hypothesis that an anticipated reality becoming current triggers an observable boost in people's rationalizations. San Franciscans rationalized a ban on plastic water bottles, Ontarians rationalized a targeted smoking ban, and Americans rationalized the presidency of Donald Trump, more in the days immediately after these realities became current compared with the days immediately before. Additional findings show evidence for a mechanism underlying these behaviors and rule out alternative accounts. These findings carry implications for scholarship on rationalization, for understanding protest behavior, and for policymakers.

Size-dependent distribution and inhalation cancer risk of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons at a typical e-waste recycling and an urban site.

PubMed

Luo, Pei; Bao, Lian-Jun; Li, Shao-Meng; Zeng, Eddy Y

2015-05-01

Atmospheric particle size distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a typical e-waste recycling zone and an urban site (Guangzhou) in southern China featured a unimodal peak in 0.56-1.8 μm for 4-6 ring PAHs but no obvious peak for 2-3 ring PAHs at both sites. The atmospheric deposition fluxes of PAHs were estimated at 5.4 ± 2.3 μg m(-2) d(-1) in the e-waste recycling zone and 3.1 ± 0.6 μg m(-2) d(-1) in Guangzhou. In addition, dry and wet deposition fluxes of PAHs were dominated by coarse (Dp > 1.8 μm) and fine particles (Dp < 1.8 μm), respectively. Fine particles predominated the deposition of PAHs in the lung. The results estimated by incremental inhalation cancer risk suggested that particle-bound PAHs posed serious threat to human health within the e-waste recycling zone and Guangzhou. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Chabora, E.; Finley, R.J.; Greenberg, S.E.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied by the Severity of negative impact. L and S are each evaluated on five-point scales, yielding a theoretical spread in risk values of 1 through 25. So defined, these judgment-based values are categorical and ordinal - they do not represent physically measurable quantities, but are nonetheless useful for comparison and therefore decision support. The "risk entities" first evaluated are FEPs - conceptual Features, Events, and Processes based on the list published by Quintessa Ltd. After concrete scenarios are generated based on selected FEPs, scenarios become the critical entities whose associated risks are evaluated and tracked. In IBDP workshops, L and S values for 123 FEPs were generated through expert elicitation. About 30 experts in the project or in GS in general were assigned among six facilitated working groups, and each group was charged to envision risks within a sphere of project operations. Working groups covered FEPs with strong spatial characteristics - such as those related to the injection wellbore and simulated plume footprint - and "nonspatial" FEPs related to finance, regulations, legal, and stakeholder issues. Within these working groups, experts shared information, examined assumptions, refined and extended the FEP list, calibrated responses, and provided initial L and S values by consensus. Individual rankings were collected in a follow-up process via emailed spreadsheets. For each of L and S, three values were collected: Lower Bound, Best Guess, and Upper Bound. The Lower-Upper Bound ranges and the spreads among experts can be interpreted to yield rough confidence measures. Based on experts' responses, FEPs were ranked in terms of their L*S risk levels. FEP rankings were determined from individual (not consensus or averaged) results, thus no high-risk responses were damped out. The higher-risk FEPs were used to generate one or more concrete, well defined risk-bearing scenarios for each FEP. Any FEP scored by any expert as having associated risk of

Quantitative sustainability and qualitative concerns in an irrigations system using recycled water to supplement limited groundwater supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gowing, John; Alataway, Abed

2013-04-01

Sustainability of irrigation in a country facing water scarcity depends upon adoption of best management practices to deliver 'more crop per drop' together with use of recycled waste-water from urban sewage systems. Saudi Arabia is a country facing extreme water scarcity and in this paper we report on research conducted at an extensive irrigation system where a concerted effort over several years has been devoted to achieving a high level of water productivity. Al-Ahsa oasis is located about 60 km inland from the Persian Gulf and has been inhabited since prehistoric times, due to the abundance of water in an otherwise arid region. It is one of the largest oases in the world with 12,000 hectares of irrigated land and more than 2 million palm trees. Historically the oasis was watered by over 60 artesian springs, but water is now pumped from the aquifer. To supplement this groundwater source, treated waste-water reuse has been practiced since 1992 and now comprises 30% of total supply. In addition, a comparable amount of agricultural drainage water is collected and recycled, so that the 'first-use' water represents only 40% of total irrigation supply. While this re-use system permits sustained irrigation with greatly reduced groundwater abstraction, there is a potential down-side in that fertilizers and contaminants applied with irrigation water move through the soil and return to the irrigation supply enhancing the risk for human and animal health. We investigated this problem using E coli and helminth eggs as indicators of human health risk. We sampled each of the three sources which are delivered separately to the head of the main irrigation canal where they are blended. The groundwater was free from E coli and helminths and the treated wastewater source was generally within designated quality standards. The recycled drainage water was delivered untreated into the canal system and was found to be contaminated with both E coli and helminths above acceptable standards. Sampling from the canal system showed that there was a general increase of E coli concentration with distance downstream representing an increasing risk to human health from consumption of sensitive crops. Reasons for this trend were explored with the most likely explanation being the use of contaminated drainage water. Natural processes of soil filtration were not providing adequate decontamination of drainage water.

A random matrix approach to credit risk.

PubMed

Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

2014-01-01

We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

A Random Matrix Approach to Credit Risk

PubMed Central

Guhr, Thomas

2014-01-01

We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided. PMID:24853864

Robust allocation of a defensive budget considering an attacker's private information.

PubMed

Nikoofal, Mohammad E; Zhuang, Jun

2012-05-01

Attackers' private information is one of the main issues in defensive resource allocation games in homeland security. The outcome of a defense resource allocation decision critically depends on the accuracy of estimations about the attacker's attributes. However, terrorists' goals may be unknown to the defender, necessitating robust decisions by the defender. This article develops a robust-optimization game-theoretical model for identifying optimal defense resource allocation strategies for a rational defender facing a strategic attacker while the attacker's valuation of targets, being the most critical attribute of the attacker, is unknown but belongs to bounded distribution-free intervals. To our best knowledge, no previous research has applied robust optimization in homeland security resource allocation when uncertainty is defined in bounded distribution-free intervals. The key features of our model include (1) modeling uncertainty in attackers' attributes, where uncertainty is characterized by bounded intervals; (2) finding the robust-optimization equilibrium for the defender using concepts dealing with budget of uncertainty and price of robustness; and (3) applying the proposed model to real data. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Platelet adhesion in breast cancer: development and application of a novel assay.

PubMed

Caine, Graham J; Nadar, Sunil K; Lip, Gregory Y H; Stonelake, Paul S; Blann, Andrew D

2004-09-01

The increased risk of thromboembolism in cancer may be related to a prothrombotic or hypercoagulable state, with abnormalities of haemostasis and platelet activation. To further investigate the role of platelets in this disease, we developed and applied a new assay to detect and quantify platelet adhesion to the well-defined subendothelial substrate, fibrinogen. Platelet-rich plasma was obtained from 31 females with breast cancer (13 metastatic, 18 benign), and 30 healthy female controls, re-suspended to 2 x 10(8) cells/ml and 100 microl and incubated for 1 h in microtitre plates pre-coated with fibrinogen (5 mg/ml). The supernatant was carefully aspirated, lysed with Triton X-100 and stored at -70 degrees C as supernatant-platelet lysate. The microtitre wells were carefully washed with saline, bound platelets lysed with Triton, and the lysate stored at -70 degrees C as bound-platelet lysate. P-selectin was determined in supernatant-platelet lysate and bound-platelet lysate for each patient by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Interpreting differences in P-selectin in different lysates as reflective of adhesion, patients with cancer had increased platelet adhesion (absolute and percentage, both P < 0.001) compared with healthy controls. There was also more adhesion (P < 0.001) in metastatic disease compared with non-metastatic disease. Patients with breast carcinomas, and, in particular, those with metastatic disease, have a higher degree of platelet adhesion, which may by quantified by a novel method based on cell lysis. This increase in platelet adhesiveness may be related to an increased risk of thromboembolism in these patients.

Invited commentary: boundless science--putting natural direct and indirect effects in a clearer empirical context.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I

2015-07-15

Epidemiologists are increasingly using natural effects for applied mediation analyses, yet 1 key identifying assumption is unintuitive and subject to some controversy. In this issue of the Journal, Jiang and VanderWeele (Am J Epidemiol. 2015;182(2):105-108) formalize the conditions under which the difference method can be used to estimate natural indirect effects. In this commentary, I discuss implications of the controversial "cross-worlds" independence assumption needed to identify natural effects. I argue that with a binary mediator, a simple modification of the authors' approach will provide bounds for natural direct and indirect effect estimates that better reflect the capacity of the available data to support empirical statements on the presence of mediated effects. I discuss complications encountered when odds ratios are used to decompose effects, as well as the implications of incorrectly assuming the absence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. I note that the former problem can be entirely resolved using collapsible measures of effect, such as risk ratios. In the Appendix, I use previous derivations for natural direct effect bounds on the risk difference scale to provide bounds on the odds ratio scale that accommodate 1) uncertainty due to the cross-world independence assumption and 2) uncertainty due to the cross-world independence assumption and the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Merging P4P and disease management: how do you know which one is working?

PubMed

Smith, Allen L

2007-03-01

An intervention movement in managed care, disease management (DM), is a system of coordinated health care interventions and communication for populations with conditions in which patient self-care efforts are significant. Another managed care intervention movement, pay for performance (P4P), involves an incentive component in which payment is defined based on meeting specific, previously agreed-upon process or outcomes targets. To explore the various characteristics of DM and P4P interventions, determine how they differ, and explore the differences in results of programs in current practice. In DM, regular ongoing evaluation of clinical, humanistic, and economic outcomes plays a crucial role in reducing costs and improving quality of care. The goal of improving overall patient health in DM is also accomplished by supporting the physician or practitioner/patient relationship and plan of care. P4P initiatives vary more according to the needs and preferences of local providers and plans than do DM initiatives. While DM programs can be implemented without necessarily changing how providers deliver health care, P4P requires new programs and/or systems within the provider sector to improve patient care quality and/or efficiency. P4P initiatives also typically involve the upside or downside risk by physicians/hospitals. Partners HealthCare, based in Boston, features P4P initiatives for inpatient admissions, diabetes, and radiology that have all been met with success. Both DM and P4P initiatives have been successful in managed care. However, in terms of determining whether DM or P4P initiatives are more effective in improving the quality and efficiency of health care delivery, it is simply too early to tell at this time.

Downsides of the recycling process: harmful organic chemicals in children's toys.

PubMed

Ionas, Alin C; Dirtu, Alin C; Anthonissen, Tim; Neels, Hugo; Covaci, Adrian

2014-04-01

Most of the materials used in consumer goods contain a number of additives which are meant to improve key properties like plasticity or flame resistance. At the end-of-life of the product, many polymeric materials are recycled and the additives they contain, such as flame retardants (FRs) and plasticizers, are transferred to the newly manufactured goods. We have investigated the occurrence and profiles of FRs, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and phosphate FR (PFRs) and of plasticisers, such as phthalate esters, in 106 toys samples. Low levels and detection frequencies of components of the technical Penta-BDE and Deca-BDE mixtures were found, with BDE 209 being the dominant PBDE in all samples (maximum value was 0.14mg/g or 0.014%). The levels of PFRs and phthalates were up to 10,000 times higher than those of the PBDEs, with triphenyl phosphate and diethylhexyl phthalate being the major representatives of these classes. Maximum values were 1.3 and 6.9%, respectively. The detection frequencies were up to 50% for PFRs and 98% for phthalates. All but one of the toys produced after the REACH regulation went into force complied with its provisions. The samples were grouped according to relevant selection criteria to assess the risk for children of different age groups. Using models in the literature, exposure to these chemicals was tentatively assessed. It is clear that at the levels found in the investigated toys, these additives do not contribute to the intended characteristics of the materials, but in some cases may pose a health hazard to the children. Most likely, recycled materials are an important source of these additives in toys and therefore, their (re)use in products for children should be subject to stricter restrictions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Principles of Cancer Screening: Lessons from History and Study Design Issues

PubMed Central

Croswell, Jennifer M.; Ransohoff, David F.; Kramer, Barnett S.

2010-01-01

Early detection of cancer has held great promise and intuitive appeal in the medical community for well over a century. Its history developed in tandem with that of the periodic health examination, in which any deviations—subtle or glaring--from a clearly demarcated “normal” were to be rooted out, given the underlying hypothesis that diseases develop along progressive linear paths of increasing abnormalities. This model of disease development drove the logical deduction that early detection—by “breaking the chain” of cancer development--must be of benefit to affected individuals. In the latter half of the 20th century, researchers and guidelines organizations began to explicitly challenge the core assumptions underpinning many clinical practices. A move away from intuitive thinking began with the development of evidence-based medicine. One key method developed to explicitly quantify the overall risk-benefit profile of a given procedure was the analytic framework. The shift away from pure deductive reasoning and reliance on personal observation was driven, in part, by a rising awareness of critical biases in cancer screening that can mislead clinicians, including healthy volunteer bias, length-biased sampling, lead-time bias, and overdiagnosis. A new focus on the net balance of both benefits and harms when determining the overall worth of an intervention also arose: it was recognized that the potential downsides of early detection were frequently overlooked or discounted because screening is performed on basically healthy persons and initially involves relatively noninvasive methods. Although still inconsistently applied to early detection programs, policies, and belief systems in the United States, an evidence-based approach is essential to counteract the misleading—even potentially harmful--allure of intuition and individual observation. PMID:20709205

Principles of cancer screening: lessons from history and study design issues.

PubMed

Croswell, Jennifer M; Ransohoff, David F; Kramer, Barnett S

2010-06-01

Early detection of cancer has held great promise and intuitive appeal in the medical community for well over a century. Its history developed in tandem with that of the periodic health examination, in which any deviations--subtle or glaring--from a clearly demarcated "normal" were to be rooted out, given the underlying hypothesis that diseases develop along progressive linear paths of increasing abnormalities. This model of disease development drove the logical deduction that early detection, by "breaking the chain" of cancer development, must be of benefit to affected individuals. In the latter half of the 20th century, researchers and guidelines organizations began to explicitly challenge the core assumptions underpinning many clinical practices. A move away from intuitive thinking began with the development of evidence-based medicine. One key method developed to explicitly quantify the overall risk-benefit profile of a given procedure was the analytic framework. The shift away from pure deductive reasoning and reliance on personal observation was driven, in part, by a rising awareness of critical biases in cancer screening that can mislead clinicians, including healthy volunteer bias, length-biased sampling, lead-time bias, and overdiagnosis. A new focus on the net balance of both benefits and harms when determining the overall worth of an intervention also arose: it was recognized that the potential downsides of early detection were frequently overlooked or discounted because screening is performed on basically healthy persons and initially involves relatively noninvasive methods. Although still inconsistently applied to early detection programs, policies, and belief systems in the United States, an evidence-based approach is essential to counteract the misleading--even potentially harmful--allure of intuition and individual observation. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Decorrelation of L-band and C-band interferometry to volcanic risk prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinverni, E. S.; Sandwell, D.; Tassetti, A. N.; Cappelletti, L.

2013-10-01

SAR has several strong key features: fine spatial resolution/precision and high temporal pass frequency. Moreover, the InSAR technique allows the accurate detection of ground deformations. This high potential technology can be invaluable to study volcanoes: it provides important information on pre-eruption surface deformation, improving the understanding of volcanic processes and the ability to predict eruptions. As a downside, SAR measurements are influenced by artifacts such as atmospheric effects or bad topographic data. Correlation gives a measure of these interferences, quantifying the similarity of the phase of two SAR images. Different approaches exists to reduce these errors but the main concern remain the possibility to correlate images with different acquisition times: snow-covered or heavily-vegetated areas produce seasonal changes on the surface. Minimizing the time between passes partly limits decorrelation. Though, images with a short temporal baseline aren't always available and some artifacts affecting correlation are timeindependent. This work studies correlation of pairs of SAR images focusing on the influence of surface and climate conditions, especially snow coverage and temperature. Furthermore, the effects of the acquisition band on correlation are taken into account, comparing L-band and C-band images. All the chosen images cover most of the Yellowstone caldera (USA) over a span of 4 years, sampling all the seasons. Interferograms and correlation maps are generated. To isolate temporal decorrelation, pairs of images with the shortest baseline are chosen. Correlation maps are analyzed in relation to snow depth and temperature. Results obtained with ENVISAT and ERS satellites (C-band) are compared with the ones from ALOS (L-band). Results show a good performance during winter and a bad attitude towards wet snow (spring and fall). During summer both L-band and C-band maintain a good coherence with L-band performing better over vegetation.

Men's preferences and trade-offs for prostate cancer screening: a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Howard, Kirsten; Salkeld, Glenn P; Patel, Manish I; Mann, Graham J; Pignone, Michael P

2015-12-01

Prostate cancer screening using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) remains controversial. In deciding about screening, men must weigh the benefits and harms: little is known about benefit: harm trade-offs men are willing to accept. The objective of this study was to assess men's preferences for PSA screening, and the trade-offs between benefits and harms men are willing to accept when deciding about screening. Preferences of 662 men aged 40-69 were assessed using a discrete choice experiment. PSA screening was described by six attributes: prostate cancer deaths, prostate cancer diagnoses, unnecessary biopsies from false-positive PSA tests, impotence, urinary incontinence/bowel problems and cost. A mixed logit model was used to examine the influence of attributes on men's preferences for PSA testing; benefit: harm trade-offs were also calculated. Men's preferences were significantly influenced by test characteristics, particularly potential mortality benefit, unnecessary biopsies and likelihood of urinary incontinence or bowel problems; preferences were also influenced by age, prior PSA testing experience and perceived risk of prostate cancer. Men were willing to accept between 65 and 233 of 10 000 extra men with unnecessary biopsies, and between 31 and 72 of 10 000 extra men with incontinence/bowel problems to avoid one prostate cancer death. Differences in valuations of attributes and trade-offs acceptable to men of different ages suggest a one size fits all approach to PSA testing, regardless of age, may not reflect men's preferences. Our results can be used by policymakers to ensure screening programmes are in line with men's preferences and by clinicians and patients to facilitate informed discussions of the most relevant benefits and downsides of PSA screening for an individual man. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wadud, Zia; MacKenzie, Don; Leiby, Paul

In 5-10 years, experts predict that new automobiles will be capable of driving themselves under limited conditions and under most conditions within 10–20 years. Automation may affect road vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a host of ways, positive and negative, by causing changes in travel demand, vehicle design, vehicle operating profiles, and choices of fuels. In this paper, we identify specific mechanisms through which automation may affect travel and energy demand and resulting GHG emissions and bring them together using a coherent energy decomposition framework. Here, we review the literature for estimates of the energy impactsmore » of each mechanism and, where the literature is lacking, develop our own estimates using engineering and economic analysis. We consider how widely applicable each mechanism is, and quantify the potential impact of each mechanism on a common basis: the percentage change it is expected to cause in total GHG emissions from light-duty or heavy-duty vehicles in the U.S. Our primary focus is travel related energy consumption and emissions, since potential lifecycle impacts are generally smaller in magnitude. We also explore the net effects of automation on emissions through several illustrative scenarios, finding that automation might plausibly reduce road transport GHG emissions and energy use by nearly half – or nearly double them – depending on which effects come to dominate. We also find that many potential energy-reduction benefits may be realized through partial automation, while the major energy/emission downside risks appear more likely at full automation. Finally, we present some implications for policymakers and identifying priority areas for further research.« less

Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles

DOE PAGES

Wadud, Zia; MacKenzie, Don; Leiby, Paul

2016-02-26

In 5-10 years, experts predict that new automobiles will be capable of driving themselves under limited conditions and under most conditions within 10–20 years. Automation may affect road vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a host of ways, positive and negative, by causing changes in travel demand, vehicle design, vehicle operating profiles, and choices of fuels. In this paper, we identify specific mechanisms through which automation may affect travel and energy demand and resulting GHG emissions and bring them together using a coherent energy decomposition framework. Here, we review the literature for estimates of the energy impactsmore » of each mechanism and, where the literature is lacking, develop our own estimates using engineering and economic analysis. We consider how widely applicable each mechanism is, and quantify the potential impact of each mechanism on a common basis: the percentage change it is expected to cause in total GHG emissions from light-duty or heavy-duty vehicles in the U.S. Our primary focus is travel related energy consumption and emissions, since potential lifecycle impacts are generally smaller in magnitude. We also explore the net effects of automation on emissions through several illustrative scenarios, finding that automation might plausibly reduce road transport GHG emissions and energy use by nearly half – or nearly double them – depending on which effects come to dominate. We also find that many potential energy-reduction benefits may be realized through partial automation, while the major energy/emission downside risks appear more likely at full automation. Finally, we present some implications for policymakers and identifying priority areas for further research.« less

Special populations: telehealth advance practice nursing: the lived experiences of individuals with acute infections transitioning in the home.

PubMed

Marineau, Michelle L

2007-01-01

This paper aims to describe the "lived experience" of individuals with acute infections transitioning in the home with support by an advance practice nurse using telehealth. The use of telehealth in individuals' homes in the United States is increasing in an effort to cut cost by limiting admissions to hospitals and/or reducing length of stay. This increase has not been driven by conclusive research findings in support of this technology; furthermore, the majority of research conducted has been in the area of chronic disease management. A qualitative approach was used to describe the essential structure of the lived experience as told during taped interviews by individuals who had been enrolled in a pilot quantitative telehealth study over the past 2 years. Major findings consisted of three theme categories: Initial response, Engaging in care, and Experiencing the downside. The transition that occurred when an individual with an acute infection was discharged from the hospital to the home supported by telehealth technology revealed an overall positive experience from the 10 participants. There was one negative experience in a participant who had two separate telehealth enrollments. The findings add valuable insight for advanced practice nurses into the experience of participants with acute illness who are receiving telehealth as they transition from hospital care to home care. The findings highlighted the importance of the participants having a sense of control when recovering from their illness, which could be achieved at home with a family member acting as a substitute nurse. The participants shared that the hospital environment may not be optimal for recovering from an illness. This provides the advanced practice nurse with information on risk and benefits of telehealth from the individuals' perspective.

"A players" or "A positions"? The strategic logic of workforce management.

PubMed

Huselid, Mark A; Beatty, Richard W; Becker, Brian E

2005-12-01

Companies simply can't afford to have "A players" in all positions. Rather, businesses need to adopt a portfolio approach to workforce management, systematically identifying their strategically important A positions, supporting B positions, and surplus C positions, then focusing disproportionate resources on making sure A players hold A positions. This is not as obvious as it may seem, because the three types of positions do not reflect corporate hierarchy, pay scales, or the level of difficulty in filling them. A positions are those that directly further company strategy and, less obviously, exhibit wide variation in the quality of the work done by the people who occupy them. Why variability? Because raising the average performance of individuals in these critical roles will pay huge dividends in corporate value. If a company like Nordstrom, for example, whose strategy depends on personalized service, were to improve the performance of its frontline sales associates, it could reap huge revenue benefits. B positions are those that support A positions or maintain company value. Inattention to them could represent a significant downside risk. (Think how damaging it would be to an airline, for example, if the quality of its pilots were to drop.) Yet investing in them to the same degree as A positions is ill-advised because B positions don't offer an upside potential. (Pilots are already highly trained, so channeling resources into improving their performance would probably not create much competitive advantage.) And C positions? Companies should consider outsourcing them--or eliminating them. We all know that effective business strategy requires differentiating a firm's products and services in ways that create value for customers. Accomplishing this requires a differentiated workforce strategy, as well.

Primary Prevention of Reading Failure: Effect of Universal Peer Tutoring in the Early Grades

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Giavana; Ostojic, Dragana; Menard, Jessica; Picard, Erin; Miller, Carlin J.

2017-01-01

Reading is typically considered a survival skill in our technology- and literacy-bound culture. Individuals who struggle with learning to read are at significantly elevated risk for a number of negative outcomes, including school failure, under- and unemployment, and special education placement. Thus, those who do not learn to read fluently will…

Analysis of Employee Engagement to Improve the Performance of Retail Risk Group PT Bank Mandiri

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiseto, Artody; Hubeis, Aida Vitayala; Sukandar, Dadang

2016-01-01

Nowadays, every company requires their employees have a bound sense to their company. It's called engagement. Also have that expectation, PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk, Bank with the largest assets in Indonesia. PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk expect which employee engagement can improve the performance such as financial, service, and production…

The Effects of Cooperative Learning on the Classroom Participation of Students Placed at Risk for Societal Failure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drakeford, William

2012-01-01

A multiple baseline design across two subjects was used to determine the effectiveness of cooperative learning techniques on increasing student participation. The study was conducted on two male secondary students attending the upward bound pre-college program. Each student worked in small groups with specific roles, and two observers documented…

Experiential Education, Outdoor Adventure As a Modality in Residential Treatment. A Survey of Programs, Principles, Research and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duindam, Ton

Orthopedagogisch Centrum (OC) Michiel is a multifunctional regional institution in the Netherlands that serves troubled families and youth at risk. Outdoor programs are used as a treatment modality for adolescents with behavior disorders, drug addictions, or criminal records. Outward Bound was the first experiential outdoor program in the…

Ataques de nervios: culturally bound and distinct from panic attacks?

PubMed

Keough, Meghan E; Timpano, Kiara R; Schmidt, Norman B

2009-01-01

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders [DSM-IV-TR; American Psychiatric Association [APA], 2000) has emphasized the importance of understanding psychopathology within a cultural framework by including culture-bound syndromes within its appendices. These syndromes are proposed to be bound to certain cultures and distinct from other psychological disorders. Included among the syndromes are ataques de nervios (ADN), which are reported to be bound to the Hispanic culture and closely resemble panic attacks. However, the cultural distinctiveness and phenomenology of ADN has not been adequately investigated. The current study employed an ethnically diverse study sample (N=342) of undergraduates. Participants completed a number of measures that assessed acculturation, syndrome and anxiety risk factors. In contrast to the DSM-IV's conceptualization of ADN, the rate of ADN did not significantly vary across the three main groups (African American, Caucasian, and Hispanic participants) nor did it vary based on acculturation. More consistent with the DSM-IV, the symptom comparisons indicated some differentiation between ADN and panic attacks. The present report provides data indicating that ADNs, as described by the DSM-IV, are not unique to the Hispanic culture and are experienced by non-Hispanic individuals at similar rates to Hispanic-endorsement. The findings are consistent with the DSM-IV assertion that ADNs and PAs are distinct syndromes. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Generalization bounds of ERM-based learning processes for continuous-time Markov chains.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Tao, Dacheng

2012-12-01

Many existing results on statistical learning theory are based on the assumption that samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, the assumption of i.i.d. samples is not suitable for practical application to problems in which samples are time dependent. In this paper, we are mainly concerned with the empirical risk minimization (ERM) based learning process for time-dependent samples drawn from a continuous-time Markov chain. This learning process covers many kinds of practical applications, e.g., the prediction for a time series and the estimation of channel state information. Thus, it is significant to study its theoretical properties including the generalization bound, the asymptotic convergence, and the rate of convergence. It is noteworthy that, since samples are time dependent in this learning process, the concerns of this paper cannot (at least straightforwardly) be addressed by existing methods developed under the sample i.i.d. assumption. We first develop a deviation inequality for a sequence of time-dependent samples drawn from a continuous-time Markov chain and present a symmetrization inequality for such a sequence. By using the resultant deviation inequality and symmetrization inequality, we then obtain the generalization bounds of the ERM-based learning process for time-dependent samples drawn from a continuous-time Markov chain. Finally, based on the resultant generalization bounds, we analyze the asymptotic convergence and the rate of convergence of the learning process.

Circulating non–transferrin-bound iron after oral administration of supplemental and fortification doses of iron to healthy women: a randomized study1234

PubMed Central

Andersson, Maria; Egli, Ines; Foman, Jasmin Tajeri; Zeder, Christophe; Westerman, Mark E; Hurrell, Richard F

2014-01-01

Background: After the oral administration of iron, the production of circulating non–transferrin-bound iron may contribute to an increased risk of illness in malaria-endemic areas that lack effective medical services. Objective: In healthy women with a range of body iron stores, we aimed to determine effects on the production of circulating non–transferrin-bound iron resulting from the oral administration of 1) a supplemental dose of iron (60 mg) with water, 2) a supplemental dose of iron (60 mg) with a standard test meal, and 3) a fortification dose of iron (6 mg) with a standard test meal. Design: With the use of serum ferritin as the indicator, healthy women with replete iron stores (ferritin concentration >25 μg/L; n = 16) and reduced iron stores (ferritin concentration ≤25 μg/L; n = 16) were enrolled in a prospective, randomized, crossover study. After the oral administration of aqueous solutions of ferrous sulfate isotopically labeled with 54Fe, 57Fe, or 58Fe, blood samples were collected for 8 h, and iron absorption was estimated by erythrocyte incorporation at 14 d. Results: At 4 h, serum non–transferrin-bound iron reached peaks with geometric mean (95% CI) concentrations of 0.81 μmol/L (0.56, 1.1 μmol/L) for 60 mg Fe with water and 0.26 μmol/L (0.15, 0.38 μmol/L) for 60 mg Fe with food but was at assay limits of detection (0.1 μmol Fe/L) for 6 mg Fe with food. For the 60 mg Fe without food, the area under the curve over 8 h for serum non–transferrin-bound iron was positively correlated with the amount of iron absorbed (R = 0.49, P < 0.01) and negatively correlated with serum ferritin (R = −0.39, P < 0.05). Conclusions: In healthy women, the production of circulating non–transferrin-bound iron is determined by the rate and amount of iron absorbed. The highest concentrations of non–transferrin-bound iron resulted from the administration of supplemental doses of iron without food. Little or no circulating non–transferrin-bound iron resulted from the consumption of a meal with a fortification dose of iron. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01404533. PMID:25057155

Circulating non-transferrin-bound iron after oral administration of supplemental and fortification doses of iron to healthy women: a randomized study.

PubMed

Brittenham, Gary M; Andersson, Maria; Egli, Ines; Foman, Jasmin Tajeri; Zeder, Christophe; Westerman, Mark E; Hurrell, Richard F

2014-09-01

After the oral administration of iron, the production of circulating non-transferrin-bound iron may contribute to an increased risk of illness in malaria-endemic areas that lack effective medical services. In healthy women with a range of body iron stores, we aimed to determine effects on the production of circulating non-transferrin-bound iron resulting from the oral administration of 1) a supplemental dose of iron (60 mg) with water, 2) a supplemental dose of iron (60 mg) with a standard test meal, and 3) a fortification dose of iron (6 mg) with a standard test meal. With the use of serum ferritin as the indicator, healthy women with replete iron stores (ferritin concentration >25 μg/L; n = 16) and reduced iron stores (ferritin concentration ≤25 μg/L; n = 16) were enrolled in a prospective, randomized, crossover study. After the oral administration of aqueous solutions of ferrous sulfate isotopically labeled with ⁵⁴Fe, ⁵⁷Fe, or ⁵⁸Fe, blood samples were collected for 8 h, and iron absorption was estimated by erythrocyte incorporation at 14 d. At 4 h, serum non-transferrin-bound iron reached peaks with geometric mean (95% CI) concentrations of 0.81 μmol/L (0.56, 1.1 μmol/L) for 60 mg Fe with water and 0.26 μmol/L (0.15, 0.38 μmol/L) for 60 mg Fe with food but was at assay limits of detection (0.1 μmol Fe/L) for 6 mg Fe with food. For the 60 mg Fe without food, the area under the curve over 8 h for serum non-transferrin-bound iron was positively correlated with the amount of iron absorbed (R = 0.49, P < 0.01) and negatively correlated with serum ferritin (R = -0.39, P < 0.05). In healthy women, the production of circulating non-transferrin-bound iron is determined by the rate and amount of iron absorbed. The highest concentrations of non-transferrin-bound iron resulted from the administration of supplemental doses of iron without food. Little or no circulating non-transferrin-bound iron resulted from the consumption of a meal with a fortification dose of iron. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

1982-01-01

This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Public health risk associated with the co-occurrence of mycotoxins in spices consumed in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Yogendrarajah, Pratheeba; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Lachat, Carl; Walpita, Chaminda Niroshan; Kolsteren, Patrick; De Saeger, Sarah; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2014-12-01

A quantitative risk assessment of mycotoxins due to the consumption of chilli (Capsicum annum L.) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) was performed in Sri Lanka. A food frequency questionnaire was administered in order to collect the data on consumption of spices by households in the Northern and Southern region (n = 249). The mean chilli consumption in the North was significantly higher (p < 0.001) compared to the South. Mean exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in the North (3.49 ng/kg BW/day) and South (2.13 ng/kg BW/day) have exceeded the tolerable daily intake due to chilli consumption at the lower bound scenario, while exposure to OTA was small. Dietary exposure to other mycotoxins, fumonisin B1, fumonisin B2, sterigmatocystin and citrinin due to spices were estimated. Margin of exposure estimations at the mean exposure to AFB1 were remarkably lower due to chilli (45-78) than for pepper (2315–10,857). Moreover, the hepato cellular carcinoma (HCC) risk associated with the mean AFB1 exposure through chilli at the lower bound was 0.046 and 0.028 HCC cases/year/100,000 based on the North and South consumption, respectively. AFB1 exposure via chilli should be considered as a great public health concern in Sri Lanka due to both high mycotoxin concentration and high consumption.

Lead poisoning in United States-bound refugee children: Thailand-Burma border, 2009.

PubMed

Mitchell, Tarissa; Jentes, Emily; Ortega, Luis; Scalia Sucosky, Marissa; Jefferies, Taran; Bajcevic, Predrag; Parr, Valentina; Jones, Warren; Brown, Mary Jean; Painter, John

2012-02-01

Elevated blood lead levels lead to permanent neurocognitive sequelae in children. Resettled refugee children in the United States are considered at high risk for elevated blood lead levels, but the prevalence of and risk factors for elevated blood lead levels before resettlement have not been described. Blood samples from children aged 6 months to 14 years from refugee camps in Thailand were tested for lead and hemoglobin. Sixty-seven children with elevated blood lead levels (venous ≥10 µg/dL) or undetectable (capillary <3.3 µg/dL) blood lead levels participated in a case-control study. Of 642 children, 33 (5.1%) had elevated blood lead levels. Children aged <2 years had the highest prevalence (14.5%). Among children aged <2 years included in a case-control study, elevated blood lead levels risk factors included hemoglobin <10 g/dL, exposure to car batteries, and taking traditional medicines. The prevalence of elevated blood lead levels among tested US-bound Burmese refugee children was higher than the current US prevalence, and was especially high among children <2 years old. Refugee children may arrive in the United States with elevated blood lead levels. A population-specific understanding of preexisting lead exposures can enhance postarrival lead-poisoning prevention efforts, based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations for resettled refugee children, and can lead to remediation efforts overseas.

Evidence Theory Based Uncertainty Quantification in Radiological Risk due to Accidental Release of Radioactivity from a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingale, S. V.; Datta, D.

2010-10-01

Consequence of the accidental release of radioactivity from a nuclear power plant is assessed in terms of exposure or dose to the members of the public. Assessment of risk is routed through this dose computation. Dose computation basically depends on the basic dose assessment model and exposure pathways. One of the exposure pathways is the ingestion of contaminated food. The aim of the present paper is to compute the uncertainty associated with the risk to the members of the public due to the ingestion of contaminated food. The governing parameters of the ingestion dose assessment model being imprecise, we have approached evidence theory to compute the bound of the risk. The uncertainty is addressed by the belief and plausibility fuzzy measures.

Health Risk Impacts of Exposure to Airborne Metals and Benzo(a)Pyrene during Episodes of High PM10 Concentrations in Poland.

PubMed

Widziewicz, Kamila; Rogula-Kozlowska, Wioletta; Loska, Krzysztof; Kociszewska, Karolina; Majewski, Grzegorz

2018-01-01

To check whether health risk impacts of exposure to airborne metals and Benzo(a) Pyrene during episodes of high PM10 concentrations lead to an increased number of lung cancer cases in Poland. In this work, we gathered data from 2002 to 2014 concerning the ambient concentrations of PM10 and PM10-bound carcinogenic Benzo(a)pyrene [B(a)P] and As, Cd, Pb, and Ni. With the use of the criterion of the exceedance in the daily PM10 mass concentration on at least 50% of all the analyzed stations, the PM10 maxima's were selected. Lung cancer occurrences in periods with and without the episodes were further compared. During a 12-year period, 348 large-scale smog episodes occurred in Poland. A total of 307 of these episodes occurred in the winter season, which is characterized by increased emissions from residential heating. The occurrence of episodes significantly (P < 0.05) increased the concentrations of PM10-bound carcinogenic As, Cd, Pb, Ni, and B(a)P. During these events, a significant increase in the overall health risk from those PM10-related compounds was also observed. The highest probability of lung cancer occurrences was found in cities, and the smallest probability was found in the remaining areas outside the cities and agglomerations. The link between PM pollution and cancer risk in Poland is a serious public health threat that needs further investigation. Copyright © 2018 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Choline deficiency is associated with increased risk for venous catheter thrombosis.

PubMed

Buchman, Alan L; Ament, Marvin E; Jenden, Donald J; Ahn, Chul

2006-01-01

Patients with intestinal failure who require long-term parenteral nutrition (PN) develop catheter thrombosis as a complication. This patient group may also develop choline deficiency because of a defect in the hepatic transsulfuration pathway in the setting of malabsorption. This study was undertaken to determine whether choline deficiency is a risk factor for development of catheter thrombosis. Plasma free and phospholipid-bound choline concentrations were measured in a group of 41 patients that required long-term PN. Episodes of catheter thrombosis from onset of PN to the time of blood testing were recorded. Sixteen (39%) patients developed catheter thrombosis, and 5 of these had recurrent catheter thrombosis. Plasma free choline was 7.7 +/- 2.7 nmol/mL in patients with no history of catheter thrombosis and 6.2 +/- 1.7 nmol/mL in patients with previous catheter thrombosis (p = .076 by Wilcoxon rank-sum test). The partial correlation between plasma free choline concentration and the frequency of clots after controlling for catheter duration was r = -0.33 (p = .038). The relative risk for catheter thrombosis in subjects with a plasma free choline concentration <8 nmol/mL was 10.0, 95% confidence interval (1.134-88.167). Plasma phospholipid-bound choline concentration was 2191.7 +/- 679.0 nmol/mL in patients with previous catheter thrombosis and 2103.3 +/- 531.2 nmol/mL in patients without history of catheter thrombosis (p = NS). Choline deficiency is a significant risk factor for development of catheter thrombosis in patients with intestinal failure who require PN.

The Membrane-bound O-Acyltransferase7 rs641738 Variant in Pediatric Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

PubMed

Di Sessa, Anna; Umano, Giuseppina Rosaria; Cirillo, Grazia; Del Prete, Angela; Iacomino, Roberta; Marzuillo, Pierluigi; Giudice, Emanuele Miraglia Del

2018-03-29

The rs641738 polymorphism in the membrane-bound O-acyltransferase domain containing protein 7 (MBOAT7) gene has been associated with increased risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). To investigate the association between the MBOAT7 rs641738 polymorphism and both hepatic steatosis and biochemical markers of liver damage and to evaluate the potential additive effect of this variant and the I148M patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 (PNPLA3) and the rs58542926 transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2) polymorphisms. One thousand and 2 obese children were genotyped for MBOAT7, PNPLA3, and TM6SF2 polymorphisms and underwent anthropometrical, ultrasonographic, and biochemical evaluation. Indirect measurement of liver fibrosis (Pediatric NAFLD Fibrosis Index [PNFI]) and a genetic risk score from these polymorphisms were calculated. Carriers of the MBOAT7 T allele showed both higher alanine transaminase (ALT) (P = 0.004) and PNFI values (P = 0.04) than noncarriers. These findings were confirmed also for the carriers of the MBOAT7 T allele polymorphism with hepatic steatosis compared with noncarriers. A higher genetic risk score was associated with higher ALT (P = 0.011) and with an odds ratio (OR) to show elevated ALT of 3.4 (95% CI 1.3-5.5, P = 0.003). Patients belonging to genetic risk score 3 group had an OR to present steatosis of 2.6 (95% CI 1.43-4.83, P = 0.0018) compared with those belonging to lower genetic risk score group. We first demonstrated in childhood obesity the role of the MBOAT7 rs641738 variant on serum ALT and the combined effect of the MBOAT7, PNPLA3, and TM6SF2 variants on NAFLD risk. We also provided the first pediatric association of the MBOAT7 polymorphism with indirect markers of liver fibrosis.

PROPOSED PROCEDURE FOR DERIVATION OF REGULATORY VALUES FOR CARCINOGENIC AIRBORNE POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS (PAHS) BASED ON COAL TAR PITCH (CTP) VOLATILES

EPA Science Inventory

A procedure for estimating upper bound lifetime human cancer risk from air levels of 6 common carcinogenic PAHs, termed "PAHs of concern", is proposed. These PAHs are benzo(a)pyrene, benz(a)anathracene, benzo(k)flouranthene, indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene and chrysene. In application,...

An Intensive Academic English Course for Generation 1.5 ELLs Bound for Postsecondary Studies: Curriculum Design, Development, and Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crossman, Katie; Pinchbeck, Geoffrey

2012-01-01

Immigrants and the children of immigrants who have completed their schooling in Canadian school settings, commonly referred to as Generation 1.5, are increasingly identified in the research literature as academically at risk due to inadequately developed academic language proficiency and learning strategies. This article describes the design,…

Effects of a Wilderness Program on Self-Esteem and Locus of Control Orientations of Young Adults. Summary of Thesis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertolami, Cheryl

Quantitative data and descriptive data (written self-evaluation and journal entries) were collected from young adults participating in a standard 26-day Outward Bound course during a quasi-experimental control group design experiment to determine the degree to which participation in a high risk wilderness program leads to self-discovery,…

BREAKING STOVEPIPES: BRIDGING GAPS IN AIR FORCE INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT TO ENABLE MULTI-DOMAIN MISSION ASSURANCE

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-16

sputter, and lights flicker and fail. An in-bound F-35, returning from its first strike mission for a quick-turn, has to divert as the runway is not ready...and mitigating risk of known vulnerabilities.” United States Scientific Advisory Board, Report on Defending and Operating in a Contested Cyber

High School Risk Factors Associated with Alcohol Trajectories and College Alcohol Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullivan, Kristen; Cosden, Merith

2015-01-01

Students often drink alcohol at their highest levels in college. It is suggested that students with the most severe drinking problems begin drinking by or in high school, but studies on high school drinking tend to focus on students who have academic problems and are not college-bound. The purpose of this study was to examine high school drinking…

Boosting Student Comprehension of Informational Materials at the Secondary Level at Benjamin Holt College Preparatory Academy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sampley, Jolyne K.

2008-01-01

Without proficiency in content reading skills, seventh grade students were at risk of not being able to achieve understanding of what they read in non-fiction texts, a skill that is absolutely necessary for college-bound students. The purpose of this action research study was to investigate whether an approach that involved specific and focused…

Conflict in the Classroom: The Education of At-Risk and Troubled Students. Fifth Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Long, Nicholas J.; Morse, William C.

This collection of over 60 readings on the education of students with emotional disturbances is organized into nine chapters. In each chapter, the articles are bound together by the humanistic ties of psychoeducation, which involves a concern for both the inner life and the external behavior. The book aims to make school time effective enough to…

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirillo, Pasquale; Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

2016-06-01

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, providing techniques for dealing with the unreliability of historical data. We make use of a novel approach to deal with fat-tailed random variables with a remote but nonetheless finite upper bound, by defining a corresponding unbounded dual distribution (given that potential war casualties are bounded by the world population). This approach can also be applied to other fields of science where power laws play a role in modeling, like geology, hydrology, statistical physics and finance. We apply methods from extreme value theory on the dual distribution and derive its tail properties. The dual method allows us to calculate the real tail mean of war casualties, which proves to be considerably larger than the corresponding sample mean for large thresholds, meaning severe underestimation of the tail risks of conflicts from naive observation. We analyze the robustness of our results to errors in historical reports. We study inter-arrival times between tail events and find that no particular trend can be asserted. All the statistical pictures obtained are at variance with the prevailing claims about ;long peace;, namely that violence has been declining over time.

Do 16 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Represent PAH Air Toxicity?

PubMed Central

Samburova, Vera; Zielinska, Barbara; Khlystov, Andrey

2017-01-01

Estimation of carcinogenic potency based on analysis of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) ranked by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the most popular approach within scientific and environmental air quality management communities. The majority of PAH monitoring projects have been focused on particle-bound PAHs, ignoring the contribution of gas-phase PAHs to the toxicity of PAH mixtures in air samples. In this study, we analyzed the results of 13 projects in which 88 PAHs in both gas and particle phases were collected from different sources (biomass burning, mining operation, and vehicle emissions), as well as in urban air. The aim was to investigate whether 16 particle-bound U.S. EPA priority PAHs adequately represented health risks of inhalation exposure to atmospheric PAH mixtures. PAH concentrations were converted to benzo(a)pyrene-equivalent (BaPeq) toxicity using the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach. TEFs of PAH compounds for which such data is not available were estimated using TEFs of close isomers. Total BaPeq toxicities (∑88BaPeq) of gas- and particle-phase PAHs were compared with BaPeq toxicities calculated for the 16 particle-phase EPA PAH (∑16EPABaPeq). The results showed that 16 EPA particle-bound PAHs underrepresented the carcinogenic potency on average by 85.6% relative to the total (gas and particle) BaPeq toxicity of 88 PAHs. Gas-phase PAHs, like methylnaphthalenes, may contribute up to 30% of ∑88BaPeq. Accounting for other individual non-EPA PAHs (i.e., benzo(e)pyrene) and gas-phase PAHs (i.e., naphthalene, 1- and 2-methylnaphthalene) will make the risk assessment of PAH-containing air samples significantly more accurate. PMID:29051449

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romero, Vicente; Bonney, Matthew; Schroeder, Benjamin

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a classmore » of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.« less

Do 16 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Represent PAH Air Toxicity?

PubMed

Samburova, Vera; Zielinska, Barbara; Khlystov, Andrey

2017-08-15

Estimation of carcinogenic potency based on analysis of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) ranked by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the most popular approach within scientific and environmental air quality management communities. The majority of PAH monitoring projects have been focused on particle-bound PAHs, ignoring the contribution of gas-phase PAHs to the toxicity of PAH mixtures in air samples. In this study, we analyzed the results of 13 projects in which 88 PAHs in both gas and particle phases were collected from different sources (biomass burning, mining operation, and vehicle emissions), as well as in urban air. The aim was to investigate whether 16 particle-bound U.S. EPA priority PAHs adequately represented health risks of inhalation exposure to atmospheric PAH mixtures. PAH concentrations were converted to benzo(a)pyrene-equivalent (BaPeq) toxicity using the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach. TEFs of PAH compounds for which such data is not available were estimated using TEFs of close isomers. Total BaPeq toxicities (∑ 88 BaPeq) of gas- and particle-phase PAHs were compared with BaPeq toxicities calculated for the 16 particle-phase EPA PAH (∑ 16EPA BaPeq). The results showed that 16 EPA particle-bound PAHs underrepresented the carcinogenic potency on average by 85.6% relative to the total (gas and particle) BaPeq toxicity of 88 PAHs. Gas-phase PAHs, like methylnaphthalenes, may contribute up to 30% of ∑ 88 BaPeq. Accounting for other individual non-EPA PAHs (i.e., benzo(e)pyrene) and gas-phase PAHs (i.e., naphthalene, 1- and 2-methylnaphthalene) will make the risk assessment of PAH-containing air samples significantly more accurate.

Beneficial reuse and sustainability: the fate of organic compounds in land-applied waste.

PubMed

Overcash, Michael; Sims, Ronald C; Sims, Judith L; Nieman, J Karl C

2005-01-01

Land application systems, also referred to as beneficial reuse systems, are engineered systems that have defined and permitted application areas based on site and waste characteristics to determine the land area size requirement. These terrestrial systems have orders of magnitude greater microbial capability and residence time to achieve decomposition and assimilation compared with aquatic systems. In this paper we focus on current information and information needs related to terrestrial fate pathways in land treatment systems. Attention is given to conventional organic chemicals as well as new estrogenic and pharmaceutical chemicals of commerce. Specific terrestrial fate pathways addressed include: decomposition, bound residue formation, leaching, runoff, and crop uptake. Molecular decomposition and formation of bound residues provide the basis for the design and regulation of land treatment systems. These mechanisms allow for assimilation of wastes and nondegradation of the environment and accomplish the goal of sustainable land use. Bound residues that are biologically produced are relatively immobile, degrade at rates similar to natural soil materials, and should present a significantly reduced risk to the environment as opposed to parent contaminants. With regard to leaching and runoff pathways, no comprehensive summary or mathematical model of organic chemical migration from land treatment systems has been developed. For the crop uptake pathway, a critical need exists to develop information for nonagricultural chemicals and to address full-scale performance and monitoring at more land application sites. The limited technology choices for treatment of biosolids, liquids, and other wastes implies that acceptance of some risks and occurrence of some benefits will continue to characterize land application practices that contribute directly to the goal of beneficial reuse and sustainability.

Quantifying Systemic Risk by Solutions of the Mean-Variance Risk Model.

PubMed

Jurczyk, Jan; Eckrot, Alexander; Morgenstern, Ingo

2016-01-01

The world is still recovering from the financial crisis peaking in September 2008. The triggering event was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. To detect such turmoils, one can investigate the time-dependent behaviour of correlations between assets or indices. These cross-correlations have been connected to the systemic risks within markets by several studies in the aftermath of this crisis. We study 37 different US indices which cover almost all aspects of the US economy and show that monitoring an average investor's behaviour can be used to quantify times of increased risk. In this paper the overall investing strategy is approximated by the ground-states of the mean-variance model along the efficient frontier bound to real world constraints. Changes in the behaviour of the average investor is utlilized as a early warning sign.

Quantifying Systemic Risk by Solutions of the Mean-Variance Risk Model

PubMed Central

Morgenstern, Ingo

2016-01-01

The world is still recovering from the financial crisis peaking in September 2008. The triggering event was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. To detect such turmoils, one can investigate the time-dependent behaviour of correlations between assets or indices. These cross-correlations have been connected to the systemic risks within markets by several studies in the aftermath of this crisis. We study 37 different US indices which cover almost all aspects of the US economy and show that monitoring an average investor’s behaviour can be used to quantify times of increased risk. In this paper the overall investing strategy is approximated by the ground-states of the mean-variance model along the efficient frontier bound to real world constraints. Changes in the behaviour of the average investor is utlilized as a early warning sign. PMID:27351482

Accessory replicative helicases and the replication of protein-bound DNA.

PubMed

Brüning, Jan-Gert; Howard, Jamieson L; McGlynn, Peter

2014-12-12

Complete, accurate duplication of the genetic material is a prerequisite for successful cell division. Achieving this accuracy is challenging since there are many barriers to replication forks that may cause failure to complete genome duplication or result in possibly catastrophic corruption of the genetic code. One of the most important types of replicative barriers are proteins bound to the template DNA, especially transcription complexes. Removal of these barriers demands energy input not only to separate the DNA strands but also to disrupt multiple bonds between the protein and DNA. Replicative helicases that unwind the template DNA for polymerases at the fork can displace proteins bound to the template. However, even occasional failures in protein displacement by the replicative helicase could spell disaster. In such circumstances, failure to restart replication could result in incomplete genome duplication. Avoiding incomplete genome duplication via the repair and restart of blocked replication forks also challenges viability since the involvement of recombination enzymes is associated with the risk of genome rearrangements. Organisms have therefore evolved accessory replicative helicases that aid replication fork movement along protein-bound DNA. These helicases reduce the dangers associated with replication blockage by protein-DNA complexes, aiding clearance of blocks and resumption of replication by the same replisome thus circumventing the need for replication repair and restart. This review summarises recent work in bacteria and eukaryotes that has begun to delineate features of accessory replicative helicases and their importance in genome stability. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, Donald M.; Matthews, William T.; Vangel, Mark G.

1992-01-01

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

A comparison between skeleton and bounding box models for falling direction recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narupiyakul, Lalita; Srisrisawang, Nitikorn

2017-12-01

Falling is an injury that can lead to a serious medical condition in every range of the age of people. However, in the case of elderly, the risk of serious injury is much higher. Due to the fact that one way of preventing serious injury is to treat the fallen person as soon as possible, several works attempted to implement different algorithms to recognize the fall. Our work compares the performance of two models based on features extraction: (i) Body joint data (Skeleton Data) which are the joint's positions in 3 axes and (ii) Bounding box (Box-size Data) covering all body joints. Machine learning algorithms that were chosen are Decision Tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Linear discriminant analysis (LDA), Voting Classification (VC), and Gradient boosting (GB). The results illustrate that the models trained with Skeleton data are performed far better than those trained with Box-size data (with an average accuracy of 94-81% and 80-75%, respectively). KNN shows the best performance in both Body joint model and Bounding box model. In conclusion, KNN with Body joint model performs the best among the others.

Logistic analysis of OBT dynamics.

PubMed

Baumgaertner, Franz; Yankovich, Tamara L; Kim, Sang Bog

2009-12-01

Formation and depuration of non-exchangeable organically bound tritium (OBT) is measured in mussel dry tissue on expanding time scales. The OBT course of time is analyzed by means of the Verhulst logistic growth function. Two separate routes are found as well for OBT formation as depuration, i.e., restoration of organically bound hydrogen (OBH). Routes which arrive at saturation earlier than sampling started are assigned to respiration. Other routes which start with one-day delay are attributed to metabolc pathways. The metabolic route of OBT formation includes, in addition to the logistic growth function, one rapid mechanism with

Potential bioavailability assessment, source apportionment and ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediment of Brisbane River estuary, Australia.

PubMed

Duodu, Godfred Odame; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Ayoko, Godwin A

2017-04-15

A weak acid extraction was used to mobilize the loosely bound metals in estuary sediment samples. More than 30% of Ag, As, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn Ni, Pb and Zn were leached from the sediment showing that these metals are significantly present in the bioavailable form. PCA/APCS identified three sources of the metals, namely: lithogenic accounting for 72%, shipping related contributing 15% and traffic related representing 13% of the total load. Application of pollution index (PI) and modified pollution index (MPI) revealed that the sediment range from unpolluted to heavily polluted while ecological risk index (RI) classifies the sediment as posing low ecological risk modified ecological risk index (MRI) suggests considerable to very high ecological risk. To provide holistic insights into the ecological risks posed by metals, enrichment factor, MPI and MRI are recommended for the assessment of sediment in complex environments such as estuaries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global long-range transport and lung cancer risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons shielded by coatings of organic aerosol

PubMed Central

Lou, Sijia; Zelenyuk, Alla; Easter, Richard C.; Corley, Richard A.; Thrall, Brian D.; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Massey Simonich, Staci L.; Tao, Shu

2017-01-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have toxic impacts on humans and ecosystems. One of the most carcinogenic PAHs, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), is efficiently bound to and transported with atmospheric particles. Laboratory measurements show that particle-bound BaP degrades in a few hours by heterogeneous reaction with ozone, yet field observations indicate BaP persists much longer in the atmosphere, and some previous chemical transport modeling studies have ignored heterogeneous oxidation of BaP to bring model predictions into better agreement with field observations. We attribute this unexplained discrepancy to the shielding of BaP from oxidation by coatings of viscous organic aerosol (OA). Accounting for this OA viscosity-dependent shielding, which varies with temperature and humidity, in a global climate/chemistry model brings model predictions into much better agreement with BaP measurements, and demonstrates stronger long-range transport, greater deposition fluxes, and substantially elevated lung cancer risk from PAHs. Model results indicate that the OA coating is more effective in shielding BaP in the middle/high latitudes compared with the tropics because of differences in OA properties (semisolid when cool/dry vs. liquid-like when warm/humid). Faster chemical degradation of BaP in the tropics leads to higher concentrations of BaP oxidation products over the tropics compared with higher latitudes. This study has profound implications demonstrating that OA strongly modulates the atmospheric persistence of PAHs and their cancer risks. PMID:28115713

Residential surface soil guidance values applied worldwide to the original 2001 Stockholm Convention POP pesticides.

PubMed

Jennings, Aaron A; Li, Zijian

2015-09-01

Surface soil contamination is a worldwide problem. Many regulatory jurisdictions attempt to control human exposures with regulatory guidance values (RGVs) that specify a soil's maximum allowable concentration. Pesticides are important soil contaminants because of their intentional toxicity and widespread surface soil application. Worldwide, at least 174 regulatory jurisdictions from 54 United Nations member states have published more than 19,400 pesticide RGVs for at least 739 chemically unique pesticides. This manuscript examines the variability of the guidance values that are applied worldwide to the original 2001 Stockholm Convention persistent organic pollutants (POP) pesticides (Aldrin, Chlordane, DDT, Dieldrin, Endrin, Heptachlor, Mirex, and Toxaphene) for which at least 1667 RGVs have been promulgated. Results indicate that the spans of the RGVs applied to each of these pesticides vary from 6.1 orders of magnitude for Toxaphene to 10.0 orders of magnitude for Mirex. The distribution of values across these value spans resembles the distribution of lognormal random variables, but also contain non-random value clusters. Approximately 40% of all the POP RGVs fall within uncertainty bounds computed from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) RGV cancer risk model. Another 22% of the values fall within uncertainty bounds computed from the USEPA's non-cancer risk model, but the cancer risk calculations yield the binding (lowest) value for all POP pesticides except Endrin. The results presented emphasize the continued need to rationalize the RGVs applied worldwide to important soil contaminants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global long-range transport and lung cancer risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons shielded by coatings of organic aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Manish; Lou, Silja; Zelenyuk, Alla; Easter, Richard C.; Corley, Richard A.; Thrall, Brian D.; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Massey Simonich, Staci L.; Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

2017-02-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have toxic impacts on humans and ecosystems. One of the most carcinogenic PAHs, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), is efficiently bound to and transported with atmospheric particles. Laboratory measurements show that particle-bound BaP degrades in a few hours by heterogeneous reaction with ozone, yet field observations indicate BaP persists much longer in the atmosphere, and some previous chemical transport modeling studies have ignored heterogeneous oxidation of BaP to bring model predictions into better agreement with field observations. We attribute this unexplained discrepancy to the shielding of BaP from oxidation by coatings of viscous organic aerosol (OA). Accounting for this OA viscosity-dependent shielding, which varies with temperature and humidity, in a global climate/chemistry model brings model predictions into much better agreement with BaP measurements, and demonstrates stronger long-range transport, greater deposition fluxes, and substantially elevated lung cancer risk from PAHs. Model results indicate that the OA coating is more effective in shielding BaP in the middle/high latitudes compared with the tropics because of differences in OA properties (semisolid when cool/dry vs. liquid-like when warm/humid). Faster chemical degradation of BaP in the tropics leads to higher concentrations of BaP oxidation products over the tropics compared with higher latitudes. This study has profound implications demonstrating that OA strongly modulates the atmospheric persistence of PAHs and their cancer risks.

Extraction of 3D Femur Neck Trabecular Bone Architecture from Clinical CT Images in Osteoporotic Evaluation: a Novel Framework.

PubMed

Sapthagirivasan, V; Anburajan, M; Janarthanam, S

2015-08-01

The early detection of osteoporosis risk enhances the lifespan and quality of life of an individual. A reasonable in-vivo assessment of trabecular bone strength at the proximal femur helps to evaluate the fracture risk and henceforth, to understand the associated structural dynamics on occurrence of osteoporosis. The main aim of our study was to develop a framework to automatically determine the trabecular bone strength from clinical femur CT images and thereby to estimate its correlation with BMD. All the 50 studied south Indian female subjects aged 30 to 80 years underwent CT and DXA measurements at right femur region. Initially, the original CT slices were intensified and active contour model was utilised for the extraction of the neck region. After processing through a novel process called trabecular enrichment approach (TEA), the three dimensional (3D) trabecular features were extracted. The extracted 3D trabecular features, such as volume fraction (VF), solidity of delta points (SDP) and boundness, demonstrated a significant correlation with femoral neck bone mineral density (r = 0.551, r = 0.432, r = 0.552 respectively) at p < 0.001. The higher area under the curve values of the extracted features (VF: 85.3 %; 95CI: 68.2-100 %, SDP: 82.1 %; 95CI: 65.1-98.9 % and boundness: 90.4 %; 95CI: 78.7-100 %) were observed. The findings suggest that the proposed framework with TEA method would be useful for spotting women vulnerable to osteoporotic risk.

Characterizing the genetic influences on risk aversion.

PubMed

Harrati, Amal

2014-01-01

Risk aversion has long been cited as an important factor in retirement decisions, investment behavior, and health. Some of the heterogeneity in individual risk tolerance is well understood, reflecting age gradients, wealth gradients, and similar effects, but much remains unexplained. This study explores genetic contributions to heterogeneity in risk aversion among older Americans. Using over 2 million genetic markers per individual from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on risk preferences using a sample of 10,455 adults. None of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are found to be statistically significant determinants of risk preferences at levels stricter than 5 × 10(-8). These results suggest that risk aversion is a complex trait that is highly polygenic. The analysis leads to upper bounds on the number of genetic effects that could exceed certain thresholds of significance and still remain undetected at the current sample size. The findings suggest that the known heritability in risk aversion is likely to be driven by large numbers of genetic variants, each with a small effect size.

Risk assessment of non-dietary exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via house PM2.5, TSP and dust and the implications from human hair

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Huang, Min-juan; Chan, Chuen-Yu; Cheung, Kwai Chung; Wong, Ming Hung

2013-07-01

To evaluate the cancer risk due to non-dietary PAHs exposure in home environment (inhalation and ingestion), exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of PM2.5, total suspend particles (TSP) and dust in homes at two urban centers of Pearl River Delta were assessed. House PM2.5 bound PAHs in Guangzhou (GZ) ranged from 10.0 to 61.9 ng m-3 and 0.72 to 8.15 ng m-3 in Hong Kong (HK). PAH profiles found in PM2.5, TSP and dust were different than that in hair (dominated by Nap and Phe). Pyr and Flu in house dust significantly correlated with that in hair (r = 0.69; 0.55, p < 0.05) but no correlation was found between PAHs in hair and PM2.5. High correlation coefficients (r2 = 0.97/0.95, p < 0.01) were noted between dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DBA) and Toxicity Equivalent Concentrations (TEQs) of dust and PM2.5. The lung cancer risks based on PM2.5 bound PAHs exposure in houses of GZ (10-5-10-4) were significantly higher than those of HK (10-6-10-5), which were also significantly higher than the cancer risks associated with house dust intake (10-7-10-5) in GZ. PAHs exposure via non-dietary route (PM2.5 and dust) was found to be 1-3 times higher than fish consumption for children and contributed to 52-76% of total PAHs intake for children and 24-50% for adults in GZ.

Risk element sorption/desorption characteristics of dry olive residue: a technique for the potential immobilization of risk elements in contaminated soils.

PubMed

Hovorka, Miloš; Száková, Jiřina; García-Sánchez, Mercedes; Acebal, Mercedes Blanc; García-Romera, Inmaculada; Tlustoš, Pavel

2016-11-01

Olive oil production is one of the most relevant agroindustrial activities in the Mediterranean region and generates a huge amount of both solid and semi-solid wastes, the uncontrolled disposal of which might lead to serious environmental problems. Due to its organic matter and mineral nutrient content, the waste material can be applied to agricultural soil as a fertilizer. However, due to its high organic matter content, dry olive residue (DOR), commonly called "alperujo," has the potential to immobilize risk elements in contaminated soils. The main objective of this study was to assess the possible effect of DOR on sorption of risk elements such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the soil. A set of batch sorption experiments were carried out to assess the ability of DOR to adsorb Cd, Pb, and Zn where the effect of the preceding biotransformation of DOR by four species of fungi: Penicillium chrysogenum, Coriolopsis floccosa, Bjerkhandera adusta, and Chondrostereum purpureum was compared. The Freundlich and Langmuir sorption isotherms were calculated to assess the sorption characteristics of both transformed and non-transformed DOR. The results showed good potential sorption capacity of DOR, especially for Pb and to a lesser extent for Cd and Zn. Better sorption characteristics were reported for the biotransformed DOR samples, which are expected to show higher humification of the organic matter. However, the desorption experiments showed weakness and instability of the DOR-bound elements, especially in the case of Zn. Thus, future research should aim to verify the DOR sorption pattern in contaminated soil as well as the potential stabilization of the DOR element bounds where the increase of the pH levels of the DOR samples needs to be taken into account.

Maternal drug use: evaluation of risks to breast-fed infants.

PubMed

Kirksey, A; Groziak, S M

1984-01-01

This paper, based on a review of the literature, evaluates the risks to infants of maternal drug use during lactation. The potential harm of a particular drug to the breastfed infant is related both to the complex mechanism of milk synthesis and secretion and the mode of passage of the drug from plasma into milk. The 1st part of the paper discusses mammary cell and milk synthesis, milk secretion and composition, the mode of passage of drugs into milk, and factors influencing drug concentrations in milk. Drug concentrations in milk are dependent on 6 major factors: drug dosage, proportion bound in plasma, molecular weight, lipid solubility, degree of ionization, and pH difference between plasma and milk. Drugs that are weak acids are ionized to a greater extent and are more protein-bound than weak alkaline drugs. The 2nd part of the paper evaluates the risks to breastfed infants of selected pharmacons. Some categories of drugs that contain pharmacons that should be limited or avoided by nursing mothers are alkylating agents, analgesics and anti-inflammatory agents, anticoagulants, anticonvulsants, anti-infective agents, central nervous system stimulants, hormones, laxatives, minerals, provitamins, psychotherapeutic agents, thyroid affecting agents, and vitamins. The following precautions are suggested to minimize the risks of potentially harmful pharmacons: 1) all unnecessary medications should be avoided by nrusing mothers; 2) if medication is necessary during lactation, drug dosage should be controlled and the infant should be monitored for adverse symptoms; 3) drugs should be administered shortly after breastfeeding and the interval prolonged before the next feeding; and 4) if the infant must be fed soon after a potentially harmful drug has been taken by the mother, bottle feeding is recommended.

Concentrations, Source Identification, and Lung Cancer Risk Associated with Springtime PM2.5-Bound Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Chen, Chong; Xia, Zhonghuan; Wu, Minmin; Zhang, Qianqian; Wang, Tao; Wang, Liping; Yang, Hao

2017-10-01

This study concentrated on the pollution level, sources, and lung cancer risk of PM 2.5 -bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in spring in Nanjing, China. The PM 2.5 samples were collected in spring of the year 2016 in Nanjing. Sixteen United States Environmental Protection Agency priority PAHs were extracted and analyzed after sampling. The mean concentrations of PAHs and BaP eq were 3.98 ± 1.01 and 0.29 ± 0.08 ng/m 3 , respectively, which is a low level among results from regions worldwide. The diurnal variations of PAHs and BaP eq concentrations showed a relatively high level in the early morning, at the morning rush time of work and traffic transportation, and in the evening traffic peak hours. According to the results of diagnostic ratios, PAHs originated mainly from traffic exhaust, especially diesel vehicle emissions. In a single day, the highest inhalation exposure level was focused between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m., whereas the time between 12 a.m. to 2 p.m. in a day had the lowest exposure dose. Due to the inhalation exposure, the median values of incremental lung cancer risk in spring were estimated to be 7.08 × 10 -9 , 5.29 × 10 -9 , 3.53 × 10 -8 , 5.21 × 10 -9 , 7.21 × 10 -9 , 5.24 × 10 -9 , 3.01 × 10 -8 , and 5.40 × 10 -9 for boys, male adolescents, male adults, male seniors, girls, female adolescents, female adults, and female seniors, respectively, indicating low potential lung cancer risk.

Interaction of BDE-47 and its Hydroxylated Metabolite 6-OH-BDE-47 with the Human ABC Efflux Transporters P-gp and BCRP: Considerations for Human Exposure and Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

ATP binding cassette (ABC) transporters, including P-glycoprotein (P-gp; also known as MDR1, ABCB1) and breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP; also known as ABCG2), are membrane-bound proteins that mediate the cellular efflux of xenobiotics as an important defense against chemic...

Convergence in feeling, divergence in physiology: How culture influences the consequences of disgust suppression and amplification among European Americans and Asian Americans.

PubMed

Soto, José A; Lee, Elizabeth A; Roberts, Nicole A

2016-01-01

Much empirical work documents the downsides of suppressing emotions. Emerging research points to the need for a more sophisticated and culturally informed approach to understanding the consequences of emotion regulation. To that end, we employed behavioral, self-report, and psychophysiological measures to examine the consequences of two types of emotion regulation (suppression and amplification) in a sample of 28 Asian Americans and 31 European Americans. Participants were shown a neutral film and then a series of disgust-eliciting films during which they were asked to regulate their response by suppressing or amplifying their emotional behavior (counterbalanced). Despite self-reporting equal levels of disgust, European Americans showed greater skin conductance reactivity than Asian Americans in both regulation conditions, but not in response to a neutral film. These findings extend work on divergence in the consequences of emotion regulation across different cultural groups, which could help identify optimal emotion regulation strategies for health and well-being. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

The dark side of social capital: A systematic review of the negative health effects of social capital.

PubMed

Villalonga-Olives, E; Kawachi, I

2017-12-01

There is a growing literature demonstrating the health benefits of social capital (defined as the resources accessed through social connections). However, social capital is also acknowledged to be a "double-edged" phenomenon, whose effects on health are not always positive. We sought to systematically review studies that have found a negative (i.e. harmful) association between social capital and health outcomes. Our objective was to classify the different types of negative effects, following a framework originally proposed by Portes (1998). We conducted a literature search in Pubmed, Embase and PsychInfo. We identified 3530 manuscripts. After detailed review, we included 44 articles in our systematic review. There are at least two negative consequences of social capital besides the classification proposed by Portes: behavioral contagion and cross-level interactions between social cohesion and individual characteristics. When leveraging the concept of social capital for health promotion interventions, researchers need to take account of these potential "downsides" for health outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being.

PubMed

Ford, Brett Q; Dmitrieva, Julia O; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B

2015-12-01

Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, the authors propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed--and thus pursued--in relatively socially engaged ways. In 4 geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (United States, Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants' well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the United States, did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett Q.; Dmitrieva, Julia O.; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A.; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B.

2015-01-01

Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, we propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed – and thus pursued – in relatively socially-engaged ways. In four geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (U.S., Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants’ well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially-engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the U.S., did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially-engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. PMID:26347945

A review of aluminium phosphide poisoning and a flowchart to treat it.

PubMed

Hashemi-Domeneh, Behrooz; Zamani, Nasim; Hassanian-Moghaddam, Hossein; Rahimi, Mitra; Shadnia, Shahin; Erfantalab, Peyman; Ostadi, Ali

2016-09-01

The use of pesticides such as aluminium phosphide (AlP) has increased in the recent years and improved the quantity and quality of agricultural products in a number of developing countries. The downside is that AlP causes severe chronic and acute health effects that have reached major proportions in countries such as India, Iran, Bangladesh, and Jordan. Nearly 300,000 people die due to pesticide poisoning in the world every year. Poisoning with AlP accounts for many of these deaths. Unfortunately, at the same time, there is no standard treatment for it. The aim of this article is to give a brief review of AlP poisoning and propose a treatment flowchart based on the knowledge gained so far. For this purpose we reviewed all articles on the management of AlP poisoning published from 2000 till now. Using a modified Delphi design, we have designed a handy flowchart that could be used as a guide for AlP poisoning management of patients in emergency centres.

Exploiting Concurrent Wake-Up Transmissions Using Beat Frequencies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Wake-up receivers are the natural choice for wireless sensor networks because of their ultra-low power consumption and their ability to provide communications on demand. A downside of ultra-low power wake-up receivers is their low sensitivity caused by the passive demodulation of the carrier signal. In this article, we present a novel communication scheme by exploiting purposefully-interfering out-of-tune signals of two or more wireless sensor nodes, which produce the wake-up signal as the beat frequency of superposed carriers. Additionally, we introduce a communication algorithm and a flooding protocol based on this approach. Our experiments show that our approach increases the received signal strength up to 3 dB, improving communication robustness and reliability. Furthermore, we demonstrate the feasibility of our newly-developed protocols by means of an outdoor experiment and an indoor setup consisting of several nodes. The flooding algorithm achieves almost a 100% wake-up rate in less than 20 ms. PMID:28933749

Psychosocial experiences associated with confirmed and self-identified dyslexia: a participant-driven concept map of adult perspectives.

PubMed

Nalavany, Blace Arthur; Carawan, Lena Williams; Rennick, Robyn A

2011-01-01

Concept mapping (a mixed qualitative-quantitative methodology) was used to describe and understand the psychosocial experiences of adults with confirmed and self-identified dyslexia. Using innovative processes of art and photography, Phase 1 of the study included 15 adults who participated in focus groups and in-depth interviews and were asked to elucidate their experiences with dyslexia. On index cards, 75 statements and experiences with dyslexia were recorded. The second phase of the study included 39 participants who sorted these statements into self-defined categories and rated each statement to reflect their personal experiences to produce a visual representation, or concept map, of their experience. The final concept map generated nine distinct cluster themes: Organization Skills for Success; Finding Success; A Good Support System Makes the Difference; On Being Overwhelmed; Emotional Downside; Why Can't They See It?; Pain, Hurt, and Embarrassment From Past to Present; Fear of Disclosure; and Moving Forward. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Visualizing Trumps Vision in Training Attention.

PubMed

Reinhart, Robert M G; McClenahan, Laura J; Woodman, Geoffrey F

2015-07-01

Mental imagery can have powerful training effects on behavior, but how this occurs is not well understood. Here we show that even a single instance of mental imagery can improve attentional selection of a target more effectively than actually practicing visual search. By recording subjects' brain activity, we found that these imagery-induced training effects were due to perceptual attention being more effectively focused on targets following imagined training. Next, we examined the downside of this potent training by changing the target after several trials of training attention with imagery and found that imagined search resulted in more potent interference than actual practice following these target changes. Finally, we found that proactive interference from task-irrelevant elements in the visual displays appears to underlie the superiority of imagined training relative to actual practice. Our findings demonstrate that visual attention mechanisms can be effectively trained to select target objects in the absence of visual input, and this results in more effective control of attention than practicing the task itself. © The Author(s) 2015.

Computational exploration of neuron and neural network models in neurobiology.

PubMed

Prinz, Astrid A

2007-01-01

The electrical activity of individual neurons and neuronal networks is shaped by the complex interplay of a large number of non-linear processes, including the voltage-dependent gating of ion channels and the activation of synaptic receptors. These complex dynamics make it difficult to understand how individual neuron or network parameters-such as the number of ion channels of a given type in a neuron's membrane or the strength of a particular synapse-influence neural system function. Systematic exploration of cellular or network model parameter spaces by computational brute force can overcome this difficulty and generate comprehensive data sets that contain information about neuron or network behavior for many different combinations of parameters. Searching such data sets for parameter combinations that produce functional neuron or network output provides insights into how narrowly different neural system parameters have to be tuned to produce a desired behavior. This chapter describes the construction and analysis of databases of neuron or neuronal network models and describes some of the advantages and downsides of such exploration methods.

Maternal Perspectives of Well Siblings' Adjustment to Family Life With a Technology-Dependent Child.

PubMed

Toly, Valerie Boebel; Blanchette, Julia E; Sikorski, Shannon; Musil, Carol M; Al-Hamed, Arwa

2017-08-01

Technology-dependent (TD) children require complex care and are dependent on medical technology. Approximately 75% of families, in the United States, who are caring for a TD child, also care for a well child. Well siblings are likely to be affected by the experience of living with a TD sibling as the process of family normalization is described as a family affair. The experiences of well siblings are not well described. The purpose of this qualitative analysis was to describe the experiences of well siblings who are living in a family with a TD child. Mothers were interviewed about the experiences of their well children and were digitally audio recorded. The interviews were transcribed, and content analysis was conducted. Content analysis from the interviews revealed the major themes of well sibling adjustment within the family unit, upside (altruistic, prosocial behaviors) and downside (negative internal and external processing behaviors). These results can be applied to advance the delivery of family nursing care offered to these families.

Does a Culture of Happiness Increase Rumination Over Failure?

PubMed

McGuirk, Lucy; Kuppens, Peter; Kingston, Rosemary; Bastian, Brock

2017-07-17

Promoting happiness within society is good for health, but could the overpromotion of happiness have a downside? Across 2 studies, we investigate 2 emotion norms associated with an emphasis on happiness-the importance of (a) seeking positive emotion, and (b) avoiding negative emotion-and whether these norms have implications for how people respond to, and seek to regulate, their negative emotional experiences. In Study 1, we used an experimental design to show that emphasizing the importance of happiness increased rumination in response to failure. In Study 2, we drew on cross-sectional evidence to investigate the other side of this equation, finding that emphasizing the importance of not experiencing negative emotional states (e.g., depression and anxiety) was also associated with increased rumination, and that this had downstream consequences for well-being. Together, the findings suggest that the overpromotion of happiness, and, in turn, the felt social pressure not to experience negative emotional states, has implications for maladaptive responses to negative emotional experiences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk assessment in the 21st century: roadmap and matrix.

PubMed

Embry, Michelle R; Bachman, Ammie N; Bell, David R; Boobis, Alan R; Cohen, Samuel M; Dellarco, Michael; Dewhurst, Ian C; Doerrer, Nancy G; Hines, Ronald N; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard D; Rowlands, J Craig; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Wolf, Douglas C; Doe, John E

2014-08-01

Abstract The RISK21 integrated evaluation strategy is a problem formulation-based exposure-driven risk assessment roadmap that takes advantage of existing information to graphically represent the intersection of exposure and toxicity data on a highly visual matrix. This paper describes in detail the process for using the roadmap and matrix. The purpose of this methodology is to optimize the use of prior information and testing resources (animals, time, facilities, and personnel) to efficiently and transparently reach a risk and/or safety determination. Based on the particular problem, exposure and toxicity data should have sufficient precision to make such a decision. Estimates of exposure and toxicity, bounded by variability and/or uncertainty, are plotted on the X- and Y-axes of the RISK21 matrix, respectively. The resulting intersection is a highly visual representation of estimated risk. Decisions can then be made to increase precision in the exposure or toxicity estimates or declare that the available information is sufficient. RISK21 represents a step forward in the goal to introduce new methodologies into 21st century risk assessment. Indeed, because of its transparent and visual process, RISK21 has the potential to widen the scope of risk communication beyond those with technical expertise.

Elastic Band Exercises Improved Activities of Daily Living and Functional Fitness of Wheelchair-bound Older Adults with Cognitive Impairment: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Chen, Meng-Chun; Chen, Kuei-Min; Chang, Chu-Lin; Chang, Ya-Hui; Cheng, Yin-Yin; Huang, Hsin-Ting

2016-11-01

The purpose of this study was to test the effects of a 6-month Wheelchair-bound Senior Elastic Band (WSEB) exercise program on the activities of daily living (ADL) and functional fitness of wheelchair-bound older adults with cognitive impairment. Cluster randomized controlled trial was used. A convenience sample of 138 wheelchair-bound older adults with cognitive impairment were recruited from 8 nursing homes in southern Taiwan and were randomly assigned based on the nursing homes they lived to the experimental (4 nursing homes; n = 73) or the control group (4 nursing homes; n = 65). The experimental group performed WSEB exercises 3 times per week and 40 minutes per session for 6 months. The ADL and functional fitness (cardiopulmonary function, body flexibility, range of joint motion, and muscle strength and endurance) were examined at baseline, 3 months, and the end of 6-month study. The ADL and functional fitness indicators of participants in the experimental group showed significant improvements compared to the control group (all P < 0.05). The WSEB exercises have positive benefits for the ADL and functional fitness of wheelchair-bound older adults with cognitive impairment. It is suggested that WSEB exercises be included as a routine activity in nursing homes. Complete the self-assessment activity and evaluation online at http://www.physiatry.org/JournalCMECME OBJECTIVES:: Upon completion of this article the reader should be able to: (1) Understand the risk factors for functional decline in older adults with dementia; (2) Articulate the benefits of structured activities and exercises in the older adult with dementia; and (3) Incorporate elastic band exercises into the treatment plan of wheelchair bound older adults with dementia. AdvancedACCREDITATION:: The Association of Academic Physiatrists is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The Association of Academic Physiatrists designates this activity for a maximum of 1.5 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit(s)™. Physicians should only claim credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.

Chemical partitioning of fine particle-bound metals on haze-fog and non-haze-fog days in Nanjing, China and its contribution to human health risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Huiming; Wu, Hongfei; Wang, Qin'geng; Yang, Meng; Li, Fengying; Sun, Yixuan; Qian, Xin; Wang, Jinhua; Wang, Cheng

2017-01-01

Information on chemical partitioning and associated risk of airborne metals, particularly during a haze-fog episode, is limited. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was collected during a severe haze-fog event in winter and non-haze-fog periods in summer and fall from an urban region of a typical Chinese mega-city, Nanjing. The particulate-bound metals (Al, As, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, Ti, V, and Zn) were chemically fractionated in a four-step sequential extraction procedure and human health risk was assessed. During the haze-fog episode, PM2.5 was extremely elevated with a mean concentration of 281 μg/m3 (range: 77-431 μg/m3), whereas the mean PM2.5 concentrations in summer and fall periods were 86 μg/m3 (range: 66-111 μg/m3) and 77 μg/m3 (range: 42-131 μg/m3), respectively. All elements had significantly higher concentrations and many metals exceeded relevant limits on haze-fog days. K, Na, Sr, Zn, Mo, Ca, Cd, Mg, Mn, Cu, Ba, Cr and As all showed relatively high proportions of the soluble and exchangeable fraction and strong bio-accessible potential. High temperature and humidity may increase the bio-accessible fraction of many airborne metals. The hazard index for potential toxic metals was 0.115, which was lower than the safe limit (1). However, the combined carcinogenic risk was 1.32 × 10- 6 for children and 5.29 × 10- 6 for adults, with both values being higher than the precautionary criterion (10- 6). Results of this study provide information for the behavior and risk mitigation of airborne metals.

A method to analyze territory resilience to natural hazards, the example of the French Riviera against tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boschetti, Laurie; Provitolo, Damienne; Tric, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

Climate change and major crisis have been increasing during the 21st century, which have impacted people and helped them to realize that they had to protect themselves against it. That is why scientists, practitioners and institutions are more and more exploring resilience concept and methodology (Dauphiné, Provitolo, 2013). Resilience came at first from material physics, and is now developed in different disciplines, like psychology, ecology, economy, more recently geography, and more specifically natural risk analysis. The downside of this multidisciplinary interest is that this concept became a polysemous concept, resulting on the difficulty, for the scientific community, to agree about a single definition to characterize it (Reghezza et al. 2015). Our presentation will propose a resilience analysis model of a territory subject to naturel hazard, after which, this methodology will be demonstrating to a specific territory, the French Riviera, more precisely the Alpes-Maritimes. We choose, as natural hazard to realize our study, the tsunami which could impact the Alpes-Maritimes coast. This choice has been done for many reasons: - This natural hazard is almost not included in the different studies and french official documents, whereas the risk is real in Mediterranean. Two significant events had happened in our study area: the first one in 1887, following the Ligurian earthquake (Ioualalen et al. 2010); the second one in 1979, off Nice airport, produced by a submarine landslide (Migeon, 2011b). Those events present a crucial particularity, being near the source, the arrival time is quiet short, making any planed escape impossible. We can describe them as flash risks. - The study area, containing coastal cities of the Alpes-Maritimes, presents many key issues, humans and economics. - This region has a specific geography, including a territory which has been developed between sea and mountains, a high density in the coast, and an anisotropy of the networks (infrastructure, communication, etc.). Yet we know how essential it is to maintain network in the recovery after disasters. (Lhomme et al. 2010). For this purpose, we relied on the resilience analyst method suggested by the scientific group Resilience Alliance (2010), who came from the human and social sciences. This methodology caught our interest, because it appeared to have a systemic approach, and allowed to include temporal dimension of an event (prevention and crisis management). However, this model presented some limits when we translated it in the field of risks and disasters. In order to create a model fully functional in this domain, we suggested to bring some changes. This new methodology not only allowed to provide an evaluation grid to the territory and the population reactions to an event, but also to determine preventive strategies (ante-catastrophe) and after disaster recovery strategies (post-catastrophe) that could be used.

[Telematics in the public health sector. Where is the protection of health data?].

PubMed

Voßhoff, Andrea; Raum, Bertram; Ernestus, Walter

2015-10-01

There is a long history of telematics in the German health system. Apart from the growing technical possibilities in the field, it is important to concentrate on the protection of health data in telematics applications. Health data in the hands of service providers or other third parties entails certain risks for the patient's personality rights, because these institutions may not be bound by the practice of medical confidentiality. In addition, big data processing risks make the individual lives of patients and insured persons totally transparent. Measures to reduce these risks have to be taken by the providers as well as by the users of telematics infrastructure; they are the ones who should explicitly address the relevant risks and dangers in a data protection and IT-security concept and develop adequate strategies to cope with these dangers. Additionally, the German legislator remains obliged to create a regulatory framework for the protection of patients' rights.

Assessment of the Gaussian Covariance Approximation over an Earth-Asteroid Encounter Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattern, Daniel

2017-01-01

In assessing the risk an asteroid may pose to the Earth, the asteroids state is often predicted for many years, often decades. Only by accounting for the asteroids initial state uncertainty can a measure of the risk be calculated. With the asteroids state uncertainty growing as a function of the initial velocity uncertainty, orbit velocity at the last state update, and the time from the last update to the epoch of interest, the asteroids position uncertainties can grow to many times the size of the Earth when propagated to the encounter risk corridor. This paper examines the merits of propagating the asteroids state covariance as an analytical matrix. The results of this study help to bound the efficacy of applying different metrics for assessing the risk an asteroid poses to the Earth. Additionally, this work identifies a criterion for when different covariance propagation methods are needed to continue predictions after an Earth-encounter period.

Robust Inference of Risks of Large Portfolios

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Han, Fang; Liu, Han; Vickers, Byron

2016-01-01

We propose a bootstrap-based robust high-confidence level upper bound (Robust H-CLUB) for assessing the risks of large portfolios. The proposed approach exploits rank-based and quantile-based estimators, and can be viewed as a robust extension of the H-CLUB procedure (Fan et al., 2015). Such an extension allows us to handle possibly misspecified models and heavy-tailed data, which are stylized features in financial returns. Under mixing conditions, we analyze the proposed approach and demonstrate its advantage over H-CLUB. We further provide thorough numerical results to back up the developed theory, and also apply the proposed method to analyze a stock market dataset. PMID:27818569

Soil or Dust for Health Risk Assessment Studies in Urban Environment.

PubMed

Gabarrón, M; Faz, A; Acosta, J A

2017-10-01

To identify the best material (soil or dust) to be selected for health-risk assessment studies, road dust and urban soil from three cities with different population densities were collected, and size fractions were analysed for metal content (Pb, Zn, Cu, Cd, Cr, Co, and Ni). Results showed similar distribution of the size particles among cities, predominating fractions between 75 and 2000 μm in road dust and particles below 75 μm in soil. Metals were mainly bound to PM10 in both soil and road dust increasing the risk of adverse health effects, overall through inhalation exposure. The risk assessment showed that the most hazardous exposure pathway was the ingestion via, followed by dermal absorption and inhalation route. Values of hazard quotient showed that the risk for children due to the ingestion and dermal absorption was higher than adults, and slightly larger at PM10 comparing to <75-μm fraction for the inhalation route. Higher risk values were found for road dust, although any hazard index or cancer risk index value did not overreach the safe value of 10 -6 .

Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

2007-08-01

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

Minimax Quantum Tomography: Estimators and Relative Entropy Bounds

DOE PAGES

Ferrie, Christopher; Blume-Kohout, Robin

2016-03-04

A minimax estimator has the minimum possible error (“risk”) in the worst case. Here we construct the first minimax estimators for quantum state tomography with relative entropy risk. The minimax risk of nonadaptive tomography scales as O (1/more » $$\\sqrt{N}$$ ) —in contrast to that of classical probability estimation, which is O (1/N) —where N is the number of copies of the quantum state used. We trace this deficiency to sampling mismatch: future observations that determine risk may come from a different sample space than the past data that determine the estimate. Lastly, this makes minimax estimators very biased, and we propose a computationally tractable alternative with similar behavior in the worst case, but superior accuracy on most states.« less

Analysis and Derivation of Allocations for Fiber Contaminants in Liquid Bipropellant Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowrey, N. M; ibrahim, K. Y.

2012-01-01

An analysis was performed to identify the engineering rationale for the existing particulate limits in MSFC-SPEC-164, Cleanliness of Components for Use in Oxygen, Fuel, and Pneumatic Systems, determine the applicability of this rationale to fibers, identify potential risks that may result from fiber contamination in liquid oxygen/fuel bipropellant systems, and bound each of these risks. The objective of this analysis was to determine whether fiber contamination exceeding the established quantitative limits for particulate can be tolerated in these systems and, if so, to derive and recommend quantitative allocations for fibers beyond the limits established for other particulate. Knowledge gaps were identified that limit a complete understanding of the risk of promoted ignition from an accumulation of fibers in a gaseous oxygen system.

Nearest Neighbor Algorithms for Pattern Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrios, J. O.

1972-01-01

A solution of the discrimination problem is considered by means of the minimum distance classifier, commonly referred to as the nearest neighbor (NN) rule. The NN rule is nonparametric, or distribution free, in the sense that it does not depend on any assumptions about the underlying statistics for its application. The k-NN rule is a procedure that assigns an observation vector z to a category F if most of the k nearby observations x sub i are elements of F. The condensed nearest neighbor (CNN) rule may be used to reduce the size of the training set required categorize The Bayes risk serves merely as a reference-the limit of excellence beyond which it is not possible to go. The NN rule is bounded below by the Bayes risk and above by twice the Bayes risk.

A Dynamic Programming Model for Optimizing Frequency of Time-Lapse Seismic Monitoring in Geological CO2 Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharjya, D.; Mukerji, T.; Mascarenhas, O.; Weyant, J.

2005-12-01

Designing a cost-effective and reliable monitoring program is crucial to the success of any geological CO2 storage project. Effective design entails determining both, the optimal measurement modality, as well as the frequency of monitoring the site. Time-lapse seismic provides the best spatial coverage and resolution for reservoir monitoring. Initial results from Sleipner (Norway) have demonstrated effective monitoring of CO2 plume movement. However, time-lapse seismic is an expensive monitoring technique especially over the long term life of a storage project and should be used judiciously. We present a mathematical model based on dynamic programming that can be used to estimate site-specific optimal frequency of time-lapse surveys. The dynamics of the CO2 sequestration process are simplified and modeled as a four state Markov process with transition probabilities. The states are M: injected CO2 safely migrating within the target zone; L: leakage from the target zone to the adjacent geosphere; R: safe migration after recovery from leakage state; and S: seepage from geosphere to the biosphere. The states are observed only when a monitoring survey is performed. We assume that the system may go to state S only from state L. We also assume that once observed to be in state L, remedial measures are always taken to bring it back to state R. Remediation benefits are captured by calculating the expected penalty if CO2 seeped into the biosphere. There is a trade-off between the conflicting objectives of minimum discounted costs of performing the next time-lapse survey and minimum risk of seepage and its associated costly consequences. A survey performed earlier would spot the leakage earlier. Remediation methods would have been utilized earlier, resulting in savings in costs attributed to excessive seepage. On the other hand, there are also costs for the survey and remedial measures. The problem is solved numerically using Bellman's optimality principal of dynamic programming to optimize over the entire finite time horizon. We use a Monte Carlo approach to explore trade-offs between survey costs, remediation costs, and survey frequency and to analyze the sensitivity to leakage probabilities, and carbon tax. The model can be useful in determining a monitoring regime appropriate to a specific site's risk and set of remediation options, rather than a generic one based on a maximum downside risk threshold for CO2 storage as a whole. This may have implications on the overall costs associated with deploying Carbon capture and storage on a large scale.

Apolipoprotein E Is a Ligand for Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid Cells 2 (TREM2)*

PubMed Central

Atagi, Yuka; Liu, Chia-Chen; Painter, Meghan M.; Chen, Xiao-Fen; Verbeeck, Christophe; Zheng, Honghua; Li, Xia; Rademakers, Rosa; Kang, Silvia S.; Xu, Huaxi; Younkin, Steven; Das, Pritam; Fryer, John D.; Bu, Guojun

2015-01-01

Several heterozygous missense mutations in the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) have recently been linked to risk for a number of neurological disorders including Alzheimer disease (AD), Parkinson disease, and frontotemporal dementia. These discoveries have re-ignited interest in the role of neuroinflammation in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases. TREM2 is highly expressed in microglia, the resident immune cells of the central nervous system. Along with its adaptor protein, DAP12, TREM2 regulates inflammatory cytokine release and phagocytosis of apoptotic neurons. Here, we report apolipoprotein E (apoE) as a novel ligand for TREM2. Using a biochemical assay, we demonstrated high-affinity binding of apoE to human TREM2. The functional significance of this binding was highlighted by increased phagocytosis of apoE-bound apoptotic N2a cells by primary microglia in a manner that depends on TREM2 expression. Moreover, when the AD-associated TREM2-R47H mutant was used in biochemical assays, apoE binding was vastly reduced. Our data demonstrate that apoE-TREM2 interaction in microglia plays critical roles in modulating phagocytosis of apoE-bound apoptotic neurons and establish a critical link between two proteins whose genes are strongly linked to the risk for AD. PMID:26374899

In vivo oxalate degradation by liposome encapsulated oxalate oxidase in rat model of hyperoxaluria

PubMed Central

Dahiya, Tulika; Pundir, C.S.

2013-01-01

Background & objectives: High level of urinary oxalate substantially increases the risk of hyperoxaluria, a significant risk factor for urolithiasis. The primary goal of this study was to reduce urinary oxalate excretion employing liposome encapsulated oxalate oxidase in animal model. Methods: A membrane bound oxalate oxidase was purified from Bougainvillea leaves. The enzyme in its native form was less effective at the physiological pH of the recipient animal. To increase its functional viability, the enzyme was immobilized on to ethylene maleic anhydride (EMA). Rats were injected with liposome encapsulated EMA- oxalate oxidase and the effect was observed on degradation of oxalic acid. Results: The enzyme was purified to apparent homogeneity with 60-fold purification and 31 per cent yield. The optimum pH of EMA-derivative enzyme was 6.0 and it showed 70 per cent of its optimal activity at pH 7.0. The EMA-bound enzyme encapsulated into liposome showed greater oxalate degradation in 15 per cent casein vitamin B6 deficient fed rats as compared with 30 per cent casein vitamin B6 deficient fed rats and control rats. Interpretation & conclusions: EMA-oxalate oxidase encapsulated liposome caused oxalate degradation in experimental hyperoxaluria indicating that the enzyme could be used as a therapeutic agent in hyperoxaluria leading to urinary stones. PMID:23481063

Regional crop yield forecasting: a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, A.; van Diepen, K.; Boogaard, H.

2009-04-01

Information on the outlook on yield and production of crops over large regions is essential for government services dealing with import and export of food crops, for agencies with a role in food relief, for international organizations with a mandate in monitoring the world food production and trade, and for commodity traders. Process-based mechanistic crop models are an important tool for providing such information, because they can integrate the effect of crop management, weather and soil on crop growth. When properly integrated in a yield forecasting system, the aggregated model output can be used to predict crop yield and production at regional, national and continental scales. Nevertheless, given the scales at which these models operate, the results are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly known weather conditions and crop management. Current yield forecasting systems are generally deterministic in nature and provide no information about the uncertainty bounds on their output. To improve on this situation we present an ensemble-based approach where uncertainty bounds can be derived from the dispersion of results in the ensemble. The probabilistic information provided by this ensemble-based system can be used to quantify uncertainties (risk) on regional crop yield forecasts and can therefore be an important support to quantitative risk analysis in a decision making process.

An upper-bound assessment of the benefits of reducing perchlorate in drinking water.

PubMed

Lutter, Randall

2014-10-01

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to issue new federal regulations to limit drinking water concentrations of perchlorate, which occurs naturally and results from the combustion of rocket fuel. This article presents an upper-bound estimate of the potential benefits of alternative maximum contaminant levels for perchlorate in drinking water. The results suggest that the economic benefits of reducing perchlorate concentrations in drinking water are likely to be low, i.e., under $2.9 million per year nationally, for several reasons. First, the prevalence of detectable perchlorate in public drinking water systems is low. Second, the population especially sensitive to effects of perchlorate, pregnant women who are moderately iodide deficient, represents a minority of all pregnant women. Third, and perhaps most importantly, reducing exposure to perchlorate in drinking water is a relatively ineffective way of increasing iodide uptake, a crucial step linking perchlorate to health effects of concern. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

PubMed

Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

2010-11-01

An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

Fate of phenanthrene and mineralization of its non-extractable residues in an oxic soil.

PubMed

Wang, Yongfeng; Xu, Jun; Shan, Jun; Ma, Yini; Ji, Rong

2017-05-01

The fate of organic pollutants in the environment, especially the formation and stability of non-extractable (i.e., bound) residues (NERs) determines their environmental risk. Using 14 C-tracers, we studied the fate of the carcinogen phenanthrene in active or sterilized oxic loamy soil in the absence and presence of the geophagous earthworm Metaphire guillelmi and characterized the NERs derived from phenanthrene. After incubation of 14 C-phenanthrene in active soil for 28 days, 40 ± 3.1% of the initial amount was mineralized and 70.1 ± 1.9% was converted to NERs. Most of the NERs (>92%) were bound to soil humin. Silylation of the humin-bound residues released 45.3 ± 5.3% of these residues, which indicated that they were physically entrapped, whereas the remainder of the residues were chemically bound or biogenic. By contrast, in sterilized soil, only 43.4 ± 12.6% of the phenanthrene was converted to NERs and all of these residues were completely released upon silylation, which underlines the essential role of microbial activity in NER formation. The presence of M. guillelmi in active soil significantly inhibited phenanthrene mineralization (24.4 ± 2.6% mineralized), but NER formation was not significantly affected. Only a small amount of phenanthrene-derived residues (1.9-5.3% of the initial amount) accumulated in the earthworm body. When humin-bound residues were mixed with fresh soil, 33.9% (humin recovered from active soils) and 12.4% (humin recovered from sterilized soils) of the residues were mineralized after 75 days of incubation, respectively, which indicated a high bioavailability of NERs, albeit lower than the initial addition of phenanthrene. Our results indicated that many phenanthrene-derived NERs, especially those physically entrapped, are still bioavailable and may pose a toxic threat to soil organisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Index analysis and human health risk model application for evaluating ambient air-heavy metal contamination in Chemical Valley Sarnia.

PubMed

Olawoyin, Richard; Schweitzer, Linda; Zhang, Kuangyuan; Okareh, Oladapo; Slates, Kevin

2018-02-01

The impacts of air emissions as a consequence of industrial activities around communities of human habitation have been extensively reported. This study is the first to assess potential adverse human health effects in the Chemical Valley Sarnia (CVS) area, around the St. Clair River, using health risk models, ecological and pollution indices. Large quantities of particulate matters (PM) are generated from anthropogenic activities, which contain several heavy metals in trace quantities with potentially adverse effects to humans and environmental health. The distribution, and human health impact assessment of trace element concentrations in PM fractions were examined. Elemental concentrations of As, Cd, Cr (VI), Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, Ni, Zn were determined in the PM size-segregated samples collected from the CVS area between 2014 and 2017. The results showed relatively high concentration of PM <2.5 (87.19±8.1(mgm 3 )) which is approximately 4 times the WHO air quality guidelines. Pb concentration (143.03 ± 46.87ηg/m 3 ) was 3.6 times higher than the air quality standards of NAAQS. Cr (VI) showed moderate to considerable contamination ( C f =4) in the CVS while Cr (VI), Pb, and Ni had enrichment factor E f < 3 (minimal), signifying contributions from anthropogenic activities. Pollution load index (P Li ) value observed was 1.4 indicating human health risk from the PM, especially for the children in the area. The deposition fluxes (DΦ) showed that PM-bound metals could potentially bypass the head airways and cause damages to the tracheobronchial tree, increasing the human health risks of nephroblastomasis development. The main route of entry for the heavy metal bound PM in humans were observed as through ingestion and inhalation. The highest total excess cancer risks observed for children (6.7×10 -4 ) and adult (1.0×10 -4 ) indicating potential cancer effects. The Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) increased from Pb < Ni < Cd < Cr (VI) < As. Overall, children are more likely to develop carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health effects from exposures to elemental concentrations of airborne PM in the study area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Willingness to pay for a reduction in mortality risk after a myocardial infarction: an application of the contingent valuation method to the case of eplerenone.

PubMed

Pinto-Prades, Jose-Luis; Farreras, Veronica; de Bobadilla, Jaime Fernandez

2008-02-01

In order to allocate health care resources more efficiently, it is necessary to relate health improvements provided by new medicines to their cost. It is necessary to ascertain when the additional cost of introducing a new health technology is justified by the additional health gain produced. Eplerenone is a new medicine that reduces the risk of death after myocardial infarction (MI) but produces additional cost to the health system. The contingent valuation approach can be used to measure the monetary value of this risk reduction and to estimate society's willingness to pay (WTP) for a new medicine that reduces the risk of death after MI by 2% points. We used a contingent valuation approach to evaluate WTP amongst members of the general population. We used the ex-ante and the ex-post approach. In the ex-ante approach, subjects are asked if they would accept an increase in their taxes in order to have access to eplerenone should they need it in the future. In the ex-post approach, subjects are asked if they would pay a certain amount of money as co-payment per month during 5 years if they suffered an MI. We used the dichotomous choice method, using five bids in each approach. The WTP was estimated using both single-bound and double-bound dichotomous choice (SBDC, DBDC). Extensive piloting (n = 187) preceded the final survey (n = 350). The WTP in the ex-ante case was euro 58 per year under both SBDC and DBDC. In the ex-post case, monthly WTP was euro 141 for the SBDC and euro 85 for the DBDC. Subjects with higher income and subjects with a higher perception of risk showed a higher WTP (P 0.05). Society is willing to pay an additional amount of money in order to give eplerenone to present and future patients. We estimate that euro 85 per month is a conservative estimate of the monetary value of a 2% risk reduction in mortality after MI and to spend this additional amount of money in Eplerenone can be considered an efficient policy.

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.

2013-01-01

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico’s dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops. PMID:23913999

The influence of redox chemistry and pH on chemically active forms of arsenic in sewage sludge-amended soil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carbonell-Barrachina, A.; Jugsujinda, A.; DeLaune, R.D.

1999-07-01

Chemical fractionation procedures were used to quantify the effect of the sediment redox and pH conditions on the adsorption and solubility of arsenic (As) in municipal sewage sludge and sewage sludge-amended soil. Sludge and sludge-amended soil were incubated in microcosms in which Eh-pH conditions were controlled. Samples were sequentially extracted to determine As in various chemical forms (water soluble, exchangeable, bound to carbonates, bound to iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) oxides, bound to insoluble organics and sulfides) and the chemically inactive fraction (mineral residues). In both sewage sludge and sludge-amended soil, As chemistry was governed by large molecular humic mattermore » and sulfides and Fe and Mn-oxides. Solubility of As remained low and constant under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions in sludge-amended soil. After dissolution of Fe and Mn-oxides, As{sup 5+} was released into sludge solution, reduced to As{sup 3+} and likely precipitated as sulfide. Therefore, an organic amendment rich in sulfur compounds, such as sewage sludge, would drastically reduce the potential risks derived from As pollution under highly anoxic conditions by precipitation of this toxic metalloid as insoluble and immobile sulfides.« less

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M

2013-02-01

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico's dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops.

Antibacterial activity of the soil-bound antimicrobials oxytetracycline and ofloxacin.

PubMed

Peng, Feng-Jiao; Zhou, Li-Jun; Ying, Guang-Guo; Liu, You-Sheng; Zhao, Jian-Liang

2014-04-01

Soil contamination of antimicrobials has become an increasing concern because of the potential risks to the soil microbial ecosystem and human health. The present study investigated sorption and desorption behaviors of oxytetracycline (OTC) and ofloxacin (OFL) in 3 typical soils (A, B, and C), and evaluated the antibacterial activity of soil-adsorbed compounds to a pure sensitive strain Escherichia coli ATCC 25922. The results showed different sorption and desorption behaviors of OTC and OFL in the 3 soils, behaviors that were mainly influenced by soil organic matter content and cation exchange capacity (CEC) as well as pH value. In addition, complexation and cation-exchange reactions were shown to be the main sorption mechanisms. Strong adsorption was found in soil B (with a high organic matter content) and in soil C (with high CEC), whereas enhanced desorption was observed in soil A (with low organic matter content). The results also demonstrated that soil-bound antimicrobials retained antibacterial activity toward E. coli. Opposite patterns of antibacterial activity were found for the 2 antimicrobials in the 3 soils: A>B>C for OFL; and C>B>A for OTC. This finding suggests that soil-bound antimicrobials could still exert selective pressure on soil bacteria although less effectively in comparison with the dissolved forms. © 2014 SETAC.

Dietary exposure and risk assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls of the population in the Region of Valencia (Spain).

PubMed

Quijano, Leyre; Marín, Silvia; Millan, Encarnación; Yusà, Vicent; Font, Guillermina; Pardo, Olga

2018-04-01

Dietary exposure of the Valencia Region population to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and PCBs was assessed in the Region of Valencia in 2010-2011. A total of 7700 food samples were collected. Occurrence data were combined with consumption data to estimate dietary exposure in adults (>15 years of age) and young people (6-15 years of age). The estimated intake was calculated by a probabilistic approach. Average intake levels (upper-bound scenario) were 1.58 and 2.76 pg toxic equivalent (TEQ) kg -1 body weight (bw) day -1 for adults and young people, respectively. These average intakes are within range of the tolerable daily intake of 1-4 pg WHO-TEQ kg -1 bw day -1 recommended by WHO, and slightly above the tolerable weekly intake (TWI) of 14 pg TEQ kg -1 bw week -1 and the Provisional tolerable monthly intake of 70 pg TEQ kg -1 bw month -1 set by the Scientific Committee on Food and the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food, respectively. These results show that the contamination levels in food and therefore the exposure of the general population to PCDD/Fs and PCBs have declined in this region and therefore show the efficiency of the European risk-management measures. In terms of risk characterisation, the results showed that, under the upper-bound scenario, 22% of the adult and 58% of the young people population could exceed the TWI.

Chemical speciation and risk assessment of cadmium in soils around a typical coal mining area of China.

PubMed

Cheng, Siwei; Liu, Guijian; Zhou, Chuncai; Sun, Ruoyu

2018-05-21

The distribution characteristics of Cadmium (Cd) fractions in soils around a coal mining area of Huaibei coalfield were investigated, with the aim to assess its ecological risk. The total Cd concentrations in soils ranged from 0.05 to 0.87 mg/kg. The high percentage of phyto-available Cd (58%) when redox or base-acid equilibria changed. Soil pH was found to be a crucial factor affecting soil Cd fraction, and carbonate-bound Cd can be significantly affected by both organic matter and pH of soils. The static ecological evaluation models, including potential ecological risk index (PERI), geo-accumulation index (I geo ) and risk assessment code (RAC), revealed a moderate soil Cd contamination and prensented high Cd exposure risk in studied soils. However, the dynamic evaluation of Cd risk, determined using a delayed geochemical hazard (DGH), suggested that our studied soils can be classified as median-risk with a mean probability of 24.79% for Cd DGH. These results provide a better assessment for the risk development of Cd contamination in coal mining areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Technology Sound not Technology Bound: The Risks of Over-Reliance on Modern Military Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-19

OF A DIVISIVE AND DISTRUSTFUL ATMOSPHERE People express emotions, beliefs, and mood through body language, intonation , and subtle... perception of the situation provided by command and control PC is a threat to the tactical commander whose immersion in the situation is far more...accurate. That perception can, in many cases, become the catalyst for the abandonment of decentralized control and in turn lead to a tactical defeat

Wheelchair economy class syndrome in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Kimura, Fumiharu; Ishida, Simon; Furutama, Daisuke; Hirata, Yuuji; Sato, Toshihiko; Hosokawa, Takashi; Hanafusa, Toshiaki

2006-03-01

A wheelchair-bound 61-year-old diabetic man with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) developed sudden respiratory failure. Specific findings for hypoxemia and hypocapnia were incompatible with type II respiratory failure seen in the terminal stages of ALS. 'Economy class syndrome' was diagnosed, with massive thrombosis in the pulmonary arteries and deep vein thrombosis. This case offers a warning for long-term wheelchair users, particularly hypoxemic ALS patients, regarding the risks of treatable pulmonary thromboembolism.

Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

1991-01-01

Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

Monoamines and assessment of risks.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hidehiko

2012-12-01

Over the past decade, neuroeconomics studies utilizing neurophysiology methods (fMRI or EEG) have flourished, revealing the neural basis of 'boundedly rational' or 'irrational' decision-making that violates normative theory. The next question is how modulatory neurotransmission is involved in these central processes. Here I focused on recent efforts to understand how central monoamine transmission is related to nonlinear probability weighting and loss aversion, central features of prospect theory, which is a leading alternative to normative theory for decision-making under risk. Circumstantial evidence suggests that dopamine tone might be related to distortion of subjective reward probability and noradrenaline and serotonin tone might influence aversive emotional reaction to potential loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using multiple decrement models to estimate risk and morbidity from specific AIDS illnesses. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS).

PubMed

Hoover, D R; Peng, Y; Saah, A J; Detels, R R; Day, R S; Phair, J P

A simple non-parametric approach is developed to simultaneously estimate net incidence and morbidity time from specific AIDS illnesses in populations at high risk for death from these illnesses and other causes. The disease-death process has four-stages that can be recast as two sandwiching three-state multiple decrement processes. Non-parametric estimation of net incidence and morbidity time with error bounds are achieved from these sandwiching models through modification of methods from Aalen and Greenwood, and bootstrapping. An application to immunosuppressed HIV-1 infected homosexual men reveals that cytomegalovirus disease, Kaposi's sarcoma and Pneumocystis pneumonia are likely to occur and cause significant morbidity time.

Impact of shale gas development on regional water quality.

PubMed

Vidic, R D; Brantley, S L; Vandenbossche, J M; Yoxtheimer, D; Abad, J D

2013-05-17

Unconventional natural gas resources offer an opportunity to access a relatively clean fossil fuel that could potentially lead to energy independence for some countries. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing make the extraction of tightly bound natural gas from shale formations economically feasible. These technologies are not free from environmental risks, however, especially those related to regional water quality, such as gas migration, contaminant transport through induced and natural fractures, wastewater discharge, and accidental spills. We review the current understanding of environmental issues associated with unconventional gas extraction. Improved understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants of concern and increased long-term monitoring and data dissemination will help manage these water-quality risks today and in the future.

The impact of missing trauma data on predicting massive transfusion

PubMed Central

Trickey, Amber W.; Fox, Erin E.; del Junco, Deborah J.; Ning, Jing; Holcomb, John B.; Brasel, Karen J.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Schreiber, Martin A.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Phelan, Herb A.; Alarcon, Louis H.; Myers, John G.; Muskat, Peter; Cotton, Bryan A.; Wade, Charles E.; Rahbar, Mohammad H.

2013-01-01

INTRODUCTION Missing data are inherent in clinical research and may be especially problematic for trauma studies. This study describes a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of missing data on clinical risk prediction algorithms. Three blood transfusion prediction models were evaluated utilizing an observational trauma dataset with valid missing data. METHODS The PRospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study included patients requiring ≥ 1 unit of red blood cells (RBC) at 10 participating U.S. Level I trauma centers from July 2009 – October 2010. Physiologic, laboratory, and treatment data were collected prospectively up to 24h after hospital admission. Subjects who received ≥ 10 RBC units within 24h of admission were classified as massive transfusion (MT) patients. Correct classification percentages for three MT prediction models were evaluated using complete case analysis and multiple imputation. A sensitivity analysis for missing data was conducted to determine the upper and lower bounds for correct classification percentages. RESULTS PROMMTT enrolled 1,245 subjects. MT was received by 297 patients (24%). Missing percentage ranged from 2.2% (heart rate) to 45% (respiratory rate). Proportions of complete cases utilized in the MT prediction models ranged from 41% to 88%. All models demonstrated similar correct classification percentages using complete case analysis and multiple imputation. In the sensitivity analysis, correct classification upper-lower bound ranges per model were 4%, 10%, and 12%. Predictive accuracy for all models using PROMMTT data was lower than reported in the original datasets. CONCLUSIONS Evaluating the accuracy clinical prediction models with missing data can be misleading, especially with many predictor variables and moderate levels of missingness per variable. The proposed sensitivity analysis describes the influence of missing data on risk prediction algorithms. Reporting upper/lower bounds for percent correct classification may be more informative than multiple imputation, which provided similar results to complete case analysis in this study. PMID:23778514

The Psychology of Climate Change Communication - Insights from the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marx, S.

2010-12-01

Natural scientists have made great strides in recent years to improve their understanding of the complex issue of global climate change. Despite the progress made, there continues to be a persistent gap between the knowledge and concern among members of the climate science community and translation of such scientific expertise into effective climate change policies and the general public’s behavioral choices. Communication is breaking down at the intersection of climate science, policy, and behavior change. Part of the reason is that, to date, social science research has not been sufficiently exploited to help individuals and groups incorporate information about climate change and environmental risk into decision making. The presentation will highlight research conducted at the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED). This presentation will discuss barriers to behavioral change and provide suggestions for improving communication about climate change: Typical science communication requires analytic processing, some level of expertise, at a minimum interest. For most people abstract information does not translate into powerful vivid images that would trigger action. Furthermore, we have found that people’s interpretation of scientific uncertainty can get in the way of using forecasts and projections. Other barriers include public risk perceptions and attitudes, cultural values, and myopia, as well as the importance that people place on self-interest/economic goals vs. collective interest/social goals. Many of these obstacles can be overcome and communication of climate change information can be improved by presenting a combination of affective information (vicarious experience, scenarios, narratives, and analogies) and scientific data; yet there are also downsides to the overuse of emotional appeals (such as the finite pool of worry and the single action bias); tapping into social affiliations and group identities can motivate the activation of social goals in favor or self interest; early involvement of stakeholders through participatory processes can help identify key concerns and information needs which can then be addressed in a tailored approach; taking advantage of default effects can make it easier for people to choose environmentally and socially beneficial options. Using research into the reactions of groups as disparate as African farmers and conservative U.S. voters, we offer insights on how scientists, educators, journalists and others can effectively connect with wider audiences. The communication principles presented in this talk can be applied beyond climate change and to science communication in general.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in PM2.5 in Zhejiang Province

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaofeng; He, Shengliang; Chen, Shuchang; Zhang, Yongli; Wang, Aihong; Luo, Jinbin; Ye, Xialiang; Mo, Zhe; Wu, Lizhi; Xu, Peiwei; Cai, Gaofeng; Chen, Zhijian; Lou, Xiaoming

2018-01-01

The spatiotemporal characteristics and human health risks of 12 heavy metals (Al, As, Be, Cd, Cr, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and Tl) in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Zhejiang Province were investigated. The annual average PM2.5 concentration was 58.83 µg/m3 in 2015 in Zhejiang. Element contents in PM2.5 varied greatly with the season and locations. Al, Pb, and Mn were the most abundant elements among the studied metal(loid)s in PM2.5. The non-carcinogenic risks of the 12 elements through inhalation and dermal contact exposure were lower than the safe level for children and adults. However, there were potential non-carcinogenic risks of Tl, As, and Sb for children and Tl for adults through ingestion exposure. The carcinogenic risks from As, Be, Cd, Cr, Pb, and Ni through inhalation exposure were less than the acceptable level (1 × 10−4) for children and adults. Pb may carry a potential carcinogenic risk for both children and adults through ingestion. More attention should be paid to alleviate non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks posed by particle-bound toxic elements through ingestion exposure. PMID:29587346

Mercury adsorption in the Mississippi River deltaic plain freshwater marsh soil of Louisiana Gulf coastal wetlands.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Hwan; Wang, Jim J; Xiao, Ran; Pensky, Scott M; Kongchum, Manoch; DeLaune, Ronald D; Seo, Dong-Cheol

2018-03-01

Mercury adsorption characteristics of Mississippi River deltaic plain (MRDP) freshwater marsh soil in the Louisiana Gulf coast were evaluated under various conditions. Mercury adsorption was well described by pseudo-second order and Langmuir isotherm models with maximum adsorption capacity of 39.8 mg g -1 . Additional fitting of intraparticle model showed that mercury in the MRDP freshwater marsh soil was controlled by both external surface adsorption and intraparticle diffusion. The partition of adsorbed mercury (mg g -1 ) revealed that mercury was primarily adsorbed into organic-bond fraction (12.09) and soluble/exchangeable fraction (10.85), which accounted for 63.5% of the total adsorption, followed by manganese oxide-bound (7.50), easily mobilizable carbonate-bound (4.53), amorphous iron oxide-bound (0.55), crystalline Fe oxide-bound (0.41), and residual fraction (0.16). Mercury adsorption capacity was generally elevated along with increasing solution pH even though dominant species of mercury were non-ionic HgCl 2 , HgClOH and Hg(OH) 2  at between pH 3 and 9. In addition, increasing background NaCl concentration and the presence of humic acid decreased mercury adsorption, whereas the presence of phosphate, sulfate and nitrate enhanced mercury adsorption. Mercury adsorption in the MRDP freshwater marsh soil was reduced by the presence of Pb, Cu, Cd and Zn with Pb showing the greatest competitive adsorption. Overall the adsorption capacity of mercury in the MRDP freshwater marsh soil was found to be significantly influenced by potential environmental changes, and such factors should be considered in order to manage the risks associated with mercury in this MRDP wetland for responding to future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

H-NS Facilitates Sequence Diversification of Horizontally Transferred DNAs during Their Integration in Host Chromosomes

PubMed Central

Higashi, Koichi; Tobe, Toru; Kanai, Akinori; Uyar, Ebru; Ishikawa, Shu; Suzuki, Yutaka; Ogasawara, Naotake; Kurokawa, Ken; Oshima, Taku

2016-01-01

Bacteria can acquire new traits through horizontal gene transfer. Inappropriate expression of transferred genes, however, can disrupt the physiology of the host bacteria. To reduce this risk, Escherichia coli expresses the nucleoid-associated protein, H-NS, which preferentially binds to horizontally transferred genes to control their expression. Once expression is optimized, the horizontally transferred genes may actually contribute to E. coli survival in new habitats. Therefore, we investigated whether and how H-NS contributes to this optimization process. A comparison of H-NS binding profiles on common chromosomal segments of three E. coli strains belonging to different phylogenetic groups indicated that the positions of H-NS-bound regions have been conserved in E. coli strains. The sequences of the H-NS-bound regions appear to have diverged more so than H-NS-unbound regions only when H-NS-bound regions are located upstream or in coding regions of genes. Because these regions generally contain regulatory elements for gene expression, sequence divergence in these regions may be associated with alteration of gene expression. Indeed, nucleotide substitutions in H-NS-bound regions of the ybdO promoter and coding regions have diversified the potential for H-NS-independent negative regulation among E. coli strains. The ybdO expression in these strains was still negatively regulated by H-NS, which reduced the effect of H-NS-independent regulation under normal growth conditions. Hence, we propose that, during E. coli evolution, the conservation of H-NS binding sites resulted in the diversification of the regulation of horizontally transferred genes, which may have facilitated E. coli adaptation to new ecological niches. PMID:26789284

Simultaneous enhancement of sludge dewaterability and removal of sludge-borne heavy metals through a novel oxidative leaching induced by nano-CaO2.

PubMed

Wu, Boran; Dai, Xiaohu; Chai, Xiaoli

2017-07-01

The production of sewage sludge with the presence of various contaminants has been a serious issue for the operation of wastewater treatment plants on both the economical and environmental sides. To minimize the sludge volume to be handled and limit the potential environmental risk, this study developed a novel oxidative leaching process for enhanced sewage sludge dewatering and simultaneous removal of heavy metals based on nano-CaO 2 . Response surface methodology determined the following optimal conditioning parameters in terms of capillary suction time reduction: 0.0906 g/g dry solid (DS) nano-CaO 2 , 0.9969 mmol/g DS Fe 2+ , and pH of 5.59. The speciation partitioning analysis of the heavy metals pre and post nano-CaO 2 peroxidation indicated that the content of organically bound metals decreased and the percentage of soluble fraction increased substantially, which was beneficial for the removal of heavy metals through the dewatering unit. Nano-CaO 2 peroxidation could also induce the transformation of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) from the tightly bound layers to the loosely bound layers of sewage sludge flocs. Through the decline of the Ryan-Weber constant of fluorescence titration and the pseudo-first-order kinetic constant of complexation, it was verified that the binding capacity of EPS with metal ions could be damaged by nano-CaO 2 peroxidation, which was the primary mechanism behind the substantial reduction of organically bound metals. This study is believed to provide novel insights into the application of nanotechnology in terms of the simultaneous volume and toxicity reduction of sewage sludge. Graphical abstract.

H-NS Facilitates Sequence Diversification of Horizontally Transferred DNAs during Their Integration in Host Chromosomes.

PubMed

Higashi, Koichi; Tobe, Toru; Kanai, Akinori; Uyar, Ebru; Ishikawa, Shu; Suzuki, Yutaka; Ogasawara, Naotake; Kurokawa, Ken; Oshima, Taku

2016-01-01

Bacteria can acquire new traits through horizontal gene transfer. Inappropriate expression of transferred genes, however, can disrupt the physiology of the host bacteria. To reduce this risk, Escherichia coli expresses the nucleoid-associated protein, H-NS, which preferentially binds to horizontally transferred genes to control their expression. Once expression is optimized, the horizontally transferred genes may actually contribute to E. coli survival in new habitats. Therefore, we investigated whether and how H-NS contributes to this optimization process. A comparison of H-NS binding profiles on common chromosomal segments of three E. coli strains belonging to different phylogenetic groups indicated that the positions of H-NS-bound regions have been conserved in E. coli strains. The sequences of the H-NS-bound regions appear to have diverged more so than H-NS-unbound regions only when H-NS-bound regions are located upstream or in coding regions of genes. Because these regions generally contain regulatory elements for gene expression, sequence divergence in these regions may be associated with alteration of gene expression. Indeed, nucleotide substitutions in H-NS-bound regions of the ybdO promoter and coding regions have diversified the potential for H-NS-independent negative regulation among E. coli strains. The ybdO expression in these strains was still negatively regulated by H-NS, which reduced the effect of H-NS-independent regulation under normal growth conditions. Hence, we propose that, during E. coli evolution, the conservation of H-NS binding sites resulted in the diversification of the regulation of horizontally transferred genes, which may have facilitated E. coli adaptation to new ecological niches.

Structural imaging of the East Beni Sueif Basin, north eastern Desert, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salem, E.; Sehim, A.

2017-12-01

The East Beni Sueif Basin is the only tested hydrocarbon-bearing basin on the eastern side of the Nile in Egypt. The basin is located around 150 km to the south of Cairo. This work introduces the first attempt of seismic interpretation and structural patterns of this basin, for which subsurface published works are lacking. Structural imaging of the area is achieved through interpretation of pre-stack time migration (PSTM) seismic cube and data sets of seven wells. The penetrated sedimentary section is represented by Albian-Middle Eocene sediments. The East Beni Sueif Basin is a type of the whole graben-system and is bounded by two NW-SE bounding faults. These faults had continued activity in an extensional regime associated with fault-propagating folds. The basin is traversed by a N75°E-trending fault system at basement level. This fault system separates the basin into two structural provinces. The Northwestern Province is deeper and shows more subsidence with a predominance of NW-trending longitudinal faults and N60·W oblique faults to the basin trend. The Southeastern Province is shallow and crossed by N14·W-trending faults which are slightly oblique to the basin axis. Albian time had witnessed the main extensional tectonic phase and resulted in major subsidence along basin-bounding faults associated with growth thickening of basal deposits. During Senonian time, the basin experienced a mild phase of transtensional tectonics, which formed negative-flower structures entrapping different folds along the N75°E and N60·W faults. The timing and style of these structures are similar to the Syrian-Arc structures in several Western Desert oil fields. The basin emerged during the Paleocene with scoured and eroded top Cretaceous sediments. Subsidence was resumed during the Early Eocene and resulted in 1500 m-thick carbonate sediments. Lastly, a mild extensional activity possibly occurred during the Oligocene-Miocene time. Despite the possible restricted potentiality of the source rock, the main hydrocarbon accumulation risk is attributed to retention in traps of long-span tectonic history. Reaching of main faults to surface through brittle carbonate cap rocks and limited thickness of the shale in the reservoir section risk hydrocarbon sealing. Buried structures of passive setting during the Tertiary show a minor trapping risk.

The contemporary role of 1 vs. 2-stage repair for proximal hypospadias

PubMed Central

Dason, Shawn; Wong, Nathan

2014-01-01

This review discusses the most commonly employed techniques in the repair of proximal hypospadias, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of single versus staged surgical techniques. Hypospadias can have a spectrum of severity with a urethral meatus ranging from the perineum to the glans. Associated abnormalities are commonly found with proximal hypospadias and encompass a large spectrum, including ventral curvature (VC) up to 50 degrees or more, ventral skin deficiency, a flattened glans, penile torsion and penoscrotal transposition. Our contemporary understanding of hypospadiology is comprised of a foundation built by experts who have described a number of techniques and their outcomes, combined with survey data detailing practice patterns. The two largest components of hypospadias repair include repair of VC and urethroplasty. VC greater than 20 degrees is considered clinically relevant to warrant surgical correction. To repair VC, the penis is first degloved—a procedure that may reduce or remove curvature by itself in some cases. Residual curvature is then repaired with dorsal plication techniques, transection of the urethral plate, and/or ventral lengthening techniques. Urethroplasty takes the form of 1- or 2-stage repairs. One-stage options include the tubularized incised urethroplasty (TIP) or various graft or flap-based techniques. Two-stage options also include grafts or flaps, including oral mucosal and preputial skin grafting. One stage repairs are an attractive option in that they may reduce cost, hospital stay, anesthetic risks, and time to the final result. The downside is that these repairs require mastery of multiple techniques may be more complex, and—depending on technique—have higher complication rates. Two-stage repairs are preferred by the majority of surveyed hypospadiologists. The 2-stage repair is versatile and has satisfactory outcomes, but necessitates a second procedure. Given the lack of clear high-quality evidence supporting the superiority of one approach over the others, hypospadiologists should develop their own algorithm, which gives them the best outcomes. PMID:26813851

The contemporary role of 1 vs. 2-stage repair for proximal hypospadias.

PubMed

Dason, Shawn; Wong, Nathan; Braga, Luis H

2014-12-01

This review discusses the most commonly employed techniques in the repair of proximal hypospadias, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of single versus staged surgical techniques. Hypospadias can have a spectrum of severity with a urethral meatus ranging from the perineum to the glans. Associated abnormalities are commonly found with proximal hypospadias and encompass a large spectrum, including ventral curvature (VC) up to 50 degrees or more, ventral skin deficiency, a flattened glans, penile torsion and penoscrotal transposition. Our contemporary understanding of hypospadiology is comprised of a foundation built by experts who have described a number of techniques and their outcomes, combined with survey data detailing practice patterns. The two largest components of hypospadias repair include repair of VC and urethroplasty. VC greater than 20 degrees is considered clinically relevant to warrant surgical correction. To repair VC, the penis is first degloved-a procedure that may reduce or remove curvature by itself in some cases. Residual curvature is then repaired with dorsal plication techniques, transection of the urethral plate, and/or ventral lengthening techniques. Urethroplasty takes the form of 1- or 2-stage repairs. One-stage options include the tubularized incised urethroplasty (TIP) or various graft or flap-based techniques. Two-stage options also include grafts or flaps, including oral mucosal and preputial skin grafting. One stage repairs are an attractive option in that they may reduce cost, hospital stay, anesthetic risks, and time to the final result. The downside is that these repairs require mastery of multiple techniques may be more complex, and-depending on technique-have higher complication rates. Two-stage repairs are preferred by the majority of surveyed hypospadiologists. The 2-stage repair is versatile and has satisfactory outcomes, but necessitates a second procedure. Given the lack of clear high-quality evidence supporting the superiority of one approach over the others, hypospadiologists should develop their own algorithm, which gives them the best outcomes.

Clinical and Economic Impact of a Digital, Remotely-Delivered Intensive Behavioral Counseling Program on Medicare Beneficiaries at Risk for Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Chen, Fang; Su, Wenqing; Becker, Shawn H; Payne, Mike; Castro Sweet, Cynthia M; Peters, Anne L; Dall, Timothy M

2016-01-01

Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease impose substantial clinical and economic burdens for seniors (age 65 and above) and the Medicare program. Intensive Behavioral Counseling (IBC) interventions like the National Diabetes Prevention Program (NDPP), have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing excess body weight and lowering or delaying morbidity onset. This paper estimated the potential health implications and medical savings of a digital version of IBC modeled after the NDPP. Participants in this digital IBC intervention, the Omada program, include 1,121 overweight or obese seniors with additional risk factors for diabetes or heart disease. Weight changes were objectively measured via participant use of a networked weight scale. Participants averaged 6.8% reduction in body weight within 26 weeks, and 89% of participants completed 9 or more of the 16 core phase lessons. We used a Markov-based microsimulation model to simulate the impact of weight loss on future health states and medical expenditures over 10 years. Cumulative per capita medical expenditure savings over 3, 5 and 10 years ranged from $1,720 to 1,770 (3 years), $3,840 to $4,240 (5 years) and $11,550 to $14,200 (10 years). The range reflects assumptions of weight re-gain similar to that seen in the DPP clinical trial (lower bound) or minimal weight re-gain aligned with age-adjusted national averages (upper bound). The estimated net economic benefit after IBC costs is $10,250 to $12,840 cumulative over 10 years. Simulation outcomes suggest reduced incidence of diabetes by 27-41% for participants with prediabetes, and stroke by approximately 15% over 5 years. A digital, remotely-delivered IBC program can help seniors at risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease achieve significant weight loss, reduces risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and achieve meaningful medical cost savings. These findings affirm recommendations for IBC coverage by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

TNT Degradation by Natural Microbial Assemblages at Frontal Boundaries Between Water Masses in Coastal Ecosystems (ER-2124 Interim Report)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-26

general features that can be used to bound these variables for a given ecosystem type ( biome ). Navy underwater coastal UXO sites can be categorized for...potentially mitigate the ecological risk associated with exposure of marine biota to these compounds. In addition, as part of these surveys, the most rapid RDX...biogeochemical parameters and aromatic contaminant biodegradation amongst various ecosystem ( biome ) types may allow the determination of attenuation

The body social: an enactive approach to the self

PubMed Central

Kyselo, Miriam

2014-01-01

This paper takes a new look at an old question: what is the human self? It offers a proposal for theorizing the self from an enactive perspective as an autonomous system that is constituted through interpersonal relations. It addresses a prevalent issue in the philosophy of cognitive science: the body-social problem. Embodied and social approaches to cognitive identity are in mutual tension. On the one hand, embodied cognitive science risks a new form of methodological individualism, implying a dichotomy not between the outside world of objects and the brain-bound individual but rather between body-bound individuals and the outside social world. On the other hand, approaches that emphasize the constitutive relevance of social interaction processes for cognitive identity run the risk of losing the individual in the interaction dynamics and of downplaying the role of embodiment. This paper adopts a middle way and outlines an enactive approach to individuation that is neither individualistic nor disembodied but integrates both approaches. Elaborating on Jonas’ notion of needful freedom it outlines an enactive proposal to understanding the self as co-generated in interactions and relations with others. I argue that the human self is a social existence that is organized in terms of a back and forth between social distinction and participation processes. On this view, the body, rather than being identical with the social self, becomes its mediator. PMID:25309471

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Bulk metal concentrations versus total suspended solids in rivers: Time-invariant & catchment-specific relationships.

PubMed

Nasrabadi, Touraj; Ruegner, Hermann; Schwientek, Marc; Bennett, Jeremy; Fazel Valipour, Shahin; Grathwohl, Peter

2018-01-01

Suspended particles in rivers can act as carriers of potentially bioavailable metal species and are thus an emerging area of interest in river system monitoring. The delineation of bulk metals concentrations in river water into dissolved and particulate components is also important for risk assessment. Linear relationships between bulk metal concentrations in water (CW,tot) and total suspended solids (TSS) in water can be used to easily evaluate dissolved (CW, intercept) and particle-bound metal fluxes (CSUS, slope) in streams (CW,tot = CW + CSUS TSS). In this study, we apply this principle to catchments in Iran (Haraz) and Germany (Ammer, Goldersbach, and Steinlach) that show differences in geology, geochemistry, land use and hydrological characteristics. For each catchment, particle-bound and dissolved concentrations for a suite of metals in water were calculated based on linear regressions of total suspended solids and total metal concentrations. Results were replicable across sampling campaigns in different years and seasons (between 2013 and 2016) and could be reproduced in a laboratory sedimentation experiment. CSUS values generally showed little variability in different catchments and agree well with soil background values for some metals (e.g. lead and nickel) while other metals (e.g. copper) indicate anthropogenic influences. CW was elevated in the Haraz (Iran) catchment, indicating higher bioavailability and potential human and ecological health concerns (where higher values of CSUS/CW are considered as a risk indicator).

Bulk metal concentrations versus total suspended solids in rivers: Time-invariant & catchment-specific relationships

PubMed Central

Ruegner, Hermann; Schwientek, Marc; Bennett, Jeremy; Fazel Valipour, Shahin; Grathwohl, Peter

2018-01-01

Suspended particles in rivers can act as carriers of potentially bioavailable metal species and are thus an emerging area of interest in river system monitoring. The delineation of bulk metals concentrations in river water into dissolved and particulate components is also important for risk assessment. Linear relationships between bulk metal concentrations in water (CW,tot) and total suspended solids (TSS) in water can be used to easily evaluate dissolved (CW, intercept) and particle-bound metal fluxes (CSUS, slope) in streams (CW,tot = CW + CSUS TSS). In this study, we apply this principle to catchments in Iran (Haraz) and Germany (Ammer, Goldersbach, and Steinlach) that show differences in geology, geochemistry, land use and hydrological characteristics. For each catchment, particle-bound and dissolved concentrations for a suite of metals in water were calculated based on linear regressions of total suspended solids and total metal concentrations. Results were replicable across sampling campaigns in different years and seasons (between 2013 and 2016) and could be reproduced in a laboratory sedimentation experiment. CSUS values generally showed little variability in different catchments and agree well with soil background values for some metals (e.g. lead and nickel) while other metals (e.g. copper) indicate anthropogenic influences. CW was elevated in the Haraz (Iran) catchment, indicating higher bioavailability and potential human and ecological health concerns (where higher values of CSUS/CW are considered as a risk indicator). PMID:29342204

Synergistic effect of rice husk addition on hydrothermal treatment of sewage sludge: fate and environmental risk of heavy metals.

PubMed

Shi, Wansheng; Liu, Chunguang; Shu, Youju; Feng, Chuanping; Lei, Zhongfang; Zhang, Zhenya

2013-12-01

Hydrothermal treatment (HTT) at 200°C was applied to immobilize heavy metals (HMs) and the effect of rice husk (RH) addition was investigated based on total HMs concentration, fractionation and leaching tests. The results indicated that a synergistic effect of RH addition and HTT could be achieved on reducing the risk of HMs from medium and low risk to no risk. Metals were redistributed and transformed from weakly bounded state to stable state during the HTT process under RH addition. Notably at a RH/sludge ratio of 1/1.75 (d.w.), all the HMs showed no eco-toxicity and no leaching toxicity, with the concentrations of leachable Cr, Ni, Cu and Cd decreased by 17%, 89%, 95% and 93%, respectively. This synergistic effect of RH addition and HTT on the risk reduction of HMs implies that HTT process with RH addition could be a promising and safe disposal technology for sewage sludge treatment in practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

2012-03-01

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

Advances in Imaging Approaches to Fracture Risk Evaluation

PubMed Central

Manhard, Mary Kate; Nyman, Jeffry S.; Does, Mark D.

2016-01-01

Fragility fractures are a growing problem worldwide, and current methods for diagnosing osteoporosis do not always identify individuals who require treatment to prevent a fracture and may misidentify those not a risk. Traditionally, fracture risk is assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, which provides measurements of areal bone mineral density (BMD) at sites prone to fracture. Recent advances in imaging show promise in adding new information that could improve the prediction of fracture risk in the clinic. As reviewed herein, advances in quantitative computed tomography (QCT) predict hip and vertebral body strength; high resolution HR-peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) and micro-magnetic resonance imaging (μMRI) assess the micro-architecture of trabecular bone; quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measures the modulus or tissue stiffness of cortical bone; and quantitative ultra-short echo time MRI methods quantify the concentrations of bound water and pore water in cortical bone, which reflect a variety of mechanical properties of bone. Each of these technologies provides unique characteristics of bone and may improve fracture risk diagnoses and reduce prevalence of fractures by helping to guide treatment decisions. PMID:27816505

Soil contamination assessment for Pb, Zn and Cd in a slag disposal area using the integration of geochemical and microbiological data.

PubMed

Kasemodel, Mariana Consiglio; Lima, Jacqueline Zanin; Sakamoto, Isabel Kimiko; Varesche, Maria Bernadete Amancio; Trofino, Julio Cesar; Rodrigues, Valéria Guimarães Silvestre

2016-12-01

Improper disposal of mining waste is still considered a global problem, and further details on the contamination by potentially toxic metals are required for a proper assessment. In this context, it is important to have a combined view of the chemical and biological changes in the mining dump area. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the Pb, Zn and Cd contamination in a slag disposal area using the integration of geochemical and microbiological data. Analyses of soil organic matter (SOM), pH, Eh, pseudo-total concentration of metals, sequential extraction and microbial community by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) were conducted. Metal availability was evaluated based on the geoaccumulation index (I geo ), ecological risk ([Formula: see text]), Risk Assessment Code (RAC) and experimental data, and different reference values were tested to assist in the interpretation of the indices. The soil pH was slightly acidic to neutral, the Eh values indicated oxidized conditions and the average SOM content varied from 12.10 to 53.60 g kg -1 . The average pseudo-total concentrations of metals were in the order of Zn > Pb > Cd. Pb and Zn were mainly bound to the residual fraction and Fe-Mn oxides, and a significant proportion of Cd was bound to the exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The topsoil (0-20 cm) is highly contaminated (I geo ) with Cd and has a very high potential ecological risk ([Formula: see text]). Higher bacterial diversity was mainly associated with higher metal concentrations. It is concluded that the integration of geochemical and microbiological data can provide an appropriate evaluation of mining waste-contaminated areas.

ng: What next-generation languages can teach us about HENP frameworks in the manycore era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binet, Sébastien

2011-12-01

Current High Energy and Nuclear Physics (HENP) frameworks were written before multicore systems became widely deployed. A 'single-thread' execution model naturally emerged from that environment, however, this no longer fits into the processing model on the dawn of the manycore era. Although previous work focused on minimizing the changes to be applied to the LHC frameworks (because of the data taking phase) while still trying to reap the benefits of the parallel-enhanced CPU architectures, this paper explores what new languages could bring to the design of the next-generation frameworks. Parallel programming is still in an intensive phase of R&D and no silver bullet exists despite the 30+ years of literature on the subject. Yet, several parallel programming styles have emerged: actors, message passing, communicating sequential processes, task-based programming, data flow programming, ... to name a few. We present the work of the prototyping of a next-generation framework in new and expressive languages (python and Go) to investigate how code clarity and robustness are affected and what are the downsides of using languages younger than FORTRAN/C/C++.

Facebook Discussion Groups Provide a Robust Worldwide Platform for Free Pathology Education.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Raul S; Amer, Sadiq M; Yahia, Nejib Ben; Costa, Felipe D'Almeida; Noatay, Manu; Qiao, Jian-Hua; Rosado, Flavia G; Rosen, Yale; Sedassari, Bruno Tavares; Yantiss, Rhonda K; Gardner, Jerad M

2017-05-01

- Facebook (Menlo Park, California) is one of many online sites that provide potential educational tools for pathologists. We have each founded Facebook groups dedicated to anatomic pathology, in which members can share cases, ask questions, and contribute to discussions. - To report our experiences in founding and maintaining these Facebook groups and to characterize the contributed content. - We circulated a survey among the group founders, then compiled and analyzed the responses. - The groups varied in membership and in the quality of member contribution. Most posts were of pathology cases, although other topics (such as research articles) were also shared. All groups remained active and received posts from users all over the world, although all groups had many noncontributing members and received unwanted messages (which were screened and removed). Most founders were glad they had founded the groups because they provided an opportunity to both teach and learn. - Each analyzed Facebook group had a different character, and some downsides exist, but the groups all provided a no-cost way for pathologists and others across the world to interact online with many colleagues.

Use of Partial Least Squares improves the efficacy of removing unwanted variability in differential expression analyses based on RNA-Seq data.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Sutirtha

2018-05-26

RNA-Seq technology has revolutionized the face of gene expression profiling by generating read count data measuring the transcript abundances for each queried gene on multiple experimental subjects. But on the downside, the underlying technical artefacts and hidden biological profiles of the samples generate a wide variety of latent effects that may potentially distort the actual transcript/gene expression signals. Standard normalization techniques fail to correct for these hidden variables and lead to flawed downstream analyses. In this work I demonstrate the use of Partial Least Squares (built as an R package 'SVAPLSseq') to correct for the traces of extraneous variability in RNA-Seq data. A novel and thorough comparative analysis of the PLS based method is presented along with some of the other popularly used approaches for latent variable correction in RNA-Seq. Overall, the method is found to achieve a substantially improved estimation of the hidden effect signatures in the RNA-Seq transcriptome expression landscape compared to other available techniques. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Leadless Pacing: Current State and Future Direction.

PubMed

Merkel, Matthias; Grotherr, Philipp; Radzewitz, Andrea; Schmitt, Claus

2017-12-01

Leadless pacing is now an established alternative to conventional pacing with subcutaneous pocket and transvenous lead for patients with class I or II single-chamber pacing indication. Available 12-month follow-up data shows a 48% fewer major complication rate in patients with Micra™ compared to a historical control group in a nonrandomized study [1]. There is one system with Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval and two with the Communauté Européenne (CE) mark. The OPS code for the implantation is 8-83d.3 and the procedure has recently been rated as a "new Examination and Treatment Method (NUB)" in the German DRG system, meaning adequate reimbursement is negotiable with health insurance providers. The systems offer similar generator longevity and programming possibilities as conventional pacemaker systems, including rate response, remote monitoring, and MRI safety. The biggest downsides to date are limitations to single-chamber stimulation, lack of long-time data, and concerns of handling of the system at the end of its life span. However, implant procedure complication rates and procedure times do not exceed conventional pacemaker operations, and proper training and patient selection is provided.

Diuretic downsides--but in low doses they still seem among the best authenticated antihypertensives.

PubMed

Opie, L H

2000-08-01

Diuretics in low doses have the greatest support among current available antihypertensives in that they have been shown to reduce total mortality, coronary mortality, stroke, and congestive heart failure in an important meta-analysis by Psaty. Recently, Messerli has linked longterm diuretic use to renal cell carcinoma in women. In some patients, diuretic use leads to increasing blood cholesterol and blood sugar levels. Impotence is a recognized side effect, with rates rising about twofold with low-dose chlorthalidone and fourfold with a higher dose. Certain population groups such as younger (<60 years) white males often do not respond to low-dose diuretic therapy with an adequate blood pressure fall. In females of a similar age group, Messerli calculates that prolonged diuretic therapy will prevent only one stroke and no coronary events nor any deaths for every renal cell carcinoma that is provoked. Despite these evident problems, the outcome data on hard endpoints in trials with initial low-dose diuretic therapy remain valid and convincing. Thus, it is argued, low- but not high-dose diuretics retain their primacy in the ranking of antihypertensive therapy.

A review of the new GLP-1 receptor agonist/basal insulin fixed-ratio combination products.

PubMed

Nuffer, Wesley; Guesnier, Ashley; Trujillo, Jennifer M

2018-03-01

There have been several new treatment approaches established for the management of hyperglycemia in type 2 diabetes (T2D), with treatment guidelines listing both glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and basal insulin therapies as considerations for patients who have failed to control their blood glucose with oral antidiabetic agents. New studies have highlighted the importance of initiating combination therapy earlier in the T2D disease process to avoid clinical inertia and prevent the long-term complications arising from uncontrolled diabetes. Until recently, both GLP-1 RAs and basal insulin therapies were only available as single agents, but there are now two combination pen devices that deliver both a GLP-1 RA and basal insulin simultaneously. This article reviews the current clinical evidence evaluating the use of these combination GLP-1 RA/basal insulin preparations to treat T2D, presents both potential benefits as well as possible downsides with the use of these agents, and discusses the current place in therapy these products represent in the management of T2D.

The Mad Genius Stereotype: Still Alive and Well

PubMed Central

Baudson, Tanja G.

2016-01-01

Scientists and laypeople agree on high ability as a defining feature of giftedness. Yet their views on gifted people's socioemotional characteristics diverge. Most studies find the gifted to be similar or slightly superior to average-ability persons in these domains (“harmony hypothesis”). However, subjective conceptions and media representations, most of which have focused on gifted children and youth, stress the socioemotional downsides of giftedness (“disharmony hypothesis”), affecting highly able individuals and those around them, thus hampering individual development. To date, most studies on gifted stereotypes have examined selective samples, mostly teachers. The present study is the first to provide representative data on conceptions of gifted individuals in general. A brief survey of 1029 German adults assessed quality and prevalence of stereotypes about gifted individuals, without an explicit focus on children and/or adolescents. Latent class analysis (LCA) revealed two conceptions of giftedness, with twice as many “disharmonious” than “harmonious” raters. Male gender, single parenthood, unemployment, higher income or negative attitudes toward the gifted predicted disharmonious ratings. However, effects were small, suggesting future studies look deeper into the processes of stereotype formation and maintenance. PMID:27047409

The Mad Genius Stereotype: Still Alive and Well.

PubMed

Baudson, Tanja G

2016-01-01

Scientists and laypeople agree on high ability as a defining feature of giftedness. Yet their views on gifted people's socioemotional characteristics diverge. Most studies find the gifted to be similar or slightly superior to average-ability persons in these domains ("harmony hypothesis"). However, subjective conceptions and media representations, most of which have focused on gifted children and youth, stress the socioemotional downsides of giftedness ("disharmony hypothesis"), affecting highly able individuals and those around them, thus hampering individual development. To date, most studies on gifted stereotypes have examined selective samples, mostly teachers. The present study is the first to provide representative data on conceptions of gifted individuals in general. A brief survey of 1029 German adults assessed quality and prevalence of stereotypes about gifted individuals, without an explicit focus on children and/or adolescents. Latent class analysis (LCA) revealed two conceptions of giftedness, with twice as many "disharmonious" than "harmonious" raters. Male gender, single parenthood, unemployment, higher income or negative attitudes toward the gifted predicted disharmonious ratings. However, effects were small, suggesting future studies look deeper into the processes of stereotype formation and maintenance.

Nanotechnological foundations of a «new» Nephrology.

PubMed

Sorian, M Laura; Rodríguez-Benot, Alberto; Valcárcel, Miguel

2018-05-16

After contextualising the generic frameworks of nanotechnology and nanomedicine, the 2disciplines are discussed in the field of Nephrology. The potential downside to nanonephrology is the renal clearance of nanoparticles, the use of which is ever-increasing both for nanomedicinal purposes and in nanofoods. The positive impact of nanotechnology in Nephrology is centred on the development of renal nanodiagnostics for basic renal function studies, the early diagnosis of acute kidney injury, reliable and simple follow-up of chronic kidney disease and the improvement of magnetic resonance imaging. Renal drug nanotherapies comprise an important and dual-faceted area: The protection of drugs and nephrotoxic agents (e.g. antibiotics, antiretrovirals, contrast media, etc.) on the one hand, and the development of new kidney disease medications on the other. Renal 'nanotheranostics' is a promising but little-studied area. The impact of nanostructured supports on renal tissue regeneration is also discussed. The article concludes with a brief analysis of the various nanonephrology perspectives. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The downside of goal-focused leadership: the role of personality in subordinate exhaustion.

PubMed

Perry, Sara Jansen; Witt, L A; Penney, Lisa M; Atwater, Leanne

2010-11-01

Exhaustion has a significant impact on employees and organizations, and leader behavior may affect it. We applied conservation of resources theory to test propositions regarding the joint effects of goal-focused leadership (GFL) and personality on employee exhaustion. We proposed that the relationship between GFL and exhaustion depends on employees' standing on both conscientiousness and emotional stability. Specifically, we expected that high-conscientiousness subordinates experience greater compatibility with a goal-focused leader because of their predisposition to direct resources toward achievement and goal setting, resulting in lower exhaustion under such a leader than among low-conscientiousness employees. Furthermore, high emotional stability may compensate for GFL incompatibility among low-conscientiousness employees by providing additional resources to manage GFL. In contrast, employees low on both traits likely experience greater exhaustion under a goal-focused leader compared with other employees. Results revealed a 3-way interaction in 2 independent samples and were generally supportive of our predictions. GFL was associated with heightened exhaustion among individuals in the low-emotional-stability, low-conscientiousness group but not among workers having any other trait combination. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Participatory health system priority setting: Evidence from a budget experiment.

PubMed

Costa-Font, Joan; Forns, Joan Rovira; Sato, Azusa

2015-12-01

Budget experiments can provide additional guidance to health system reform requiring the identification of a subset of programs and services that accrue the highest social value to 'communities'. Such experiments simulate a realistic budget resource allocation assessment among competitive programs, and position citizens as decision makers responsible for making 'collective sacrifices'. This paper explores the use of a participatory budget experiment (with 88 participants clustered in social groups) to model public health care reform, drawing from a set of realistic scenarios for potential health care users. We measure preferences by employing a contingent ranking alongside a budget allocation exercise (termed 'willingness to assign') before and after program cost information is revealed. Evidence suggests that the budget experiment method tested is cognitively feasible and incentive compatible. The main downside is the existence of ex-ante "cost estimation" bias. Additionally, we find that participants appeared to underestimate the net social gain of redistributive programs. Relative social value estimates can serve as a guide to aid priority setting at a health system level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adjoint-based sensitivity analysis of low-order thermoacoustic networks using a wave-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, José G.; Magri, Luca; Juniper, Matthew P.

2017-07-01

Strict pollutant emission regulations are pushing gas turbine manufacturers to develop devices that operate in lean conditions, with the downside that combustion instabilities are more likely to occur. Methods to predict and control unstable modes inside combustion chambers have been developed in the last decades but, in some cases, they are computationally expensive. Sensitivity analysis aided by adjoint methods provides valuable sensitivity information at a low computational cost. This paper introduces adjoint methods and their application in wave-based low order network models, which are used as industrial tools, to predict and control thermoacoustic oscillations. Two thermoacoustic models of interest are analyzed. First, in the zero Mach number limit, a nonlinear eigenvalue problem is derived, and continuous and discrete adjoint methods are used to obtain the sensitivities of the system to small modifications. Sensitivities to base-state modification and feedback devices are presented. Second, a more general case with non-zero Mach number, a moving flame front and choked outlet, is presented. The influence of the entropy waves on the computed sensitivities is shown.

Initial solubility & density evaluation of Non-Aqueous system of amino acid salts for CO2 capture: potassium prolinate blended with ethanol and ethylene glycol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murshid, Ghulam; Garg, Sahil

2018-05-01

Amine scrubbing is the state of the art technology for CO2 capture, and solvent selection can significantly reduce the capital and energy cost of the process. Higher energy requirement for aqueous amine based CO2 removal process is still a most important downside preventive its industrial deployment. Therefore, in this study, novel non-aqueous based amino acid salt system consisting of potassium prolinate, ethanol and ethylene glycol has been studied. This work presents initial CO2 solubility study and important physical properties i.e. density of the studied solvent system. Previous work showed that non-aqueous system of potassium prolinate and ethanol has good absorption rates and requires lower energy for solvent regeneration. However, during regeneration, solvent loss issues were found due to lower boiling point of the ethanol. Therefore, ethylene glycol was added into current studied system for enhancing the overall boiling point of the system. The good initial CO2 solubility and low density of studied solvent system offers several advantages as compared to conventional amine solutions.

"It's tough hanging-up a call": The relationships between calling and work hours, psychological detachment, sleep quality, and morning vigor.

PubMed

Clinton, Michael E; Conway, Neil; Sturges, Jane

2017-01-01

It has been argued that when people believe that their work is a calling, it can often be experienced as an intense and consuming passion with significant personal meaning. While callings have been demonstrated to have several positive outcomes for individuals, less is known about the potential downsides for those who experience work in this way. This study develops a multiple-meditation model proposing that, while the intensity of a calling has a positive direct effect on work-related vigor, it motivates people to work longer hours, which both directly and indirectly via longer work hours, limits their psychological detachment from work in the evenings. In turn, this process reduces sleep quality and morning vigor. Survey and diary data of 193 church ministers supported all hypotheses associated with this model. This implies that intense callings may limit the process of recovery from work experiences. The findings contribute to a more balanced theoretical understanding of callings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A News Media Analysis of the Economic and Reputational Penalties of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program

PubMed Central

Winborn, Melissa S.; Alencherril, Joyce

2014-01-01

Section 3025 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 established the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), an initiative designed to penalize hospitals with excess 30-day readmissions. This study investigates whether readmission penalties under HRRP impose significant reputational effects on hospitals. Data extracted from 2012 to 2013 news stories suggest that the higher the actual penalty, the higher the perceived cost of the penalty, the more likely it is that hospitals will state they have no control over the low-income patients they serve or that they will describe themselves as safety net providers. The downside of being singled out as a low-quality hospital deserving a relatively high penalty seems to be larger than the upside of being singled out as a high-quality hospital facing a relatively low penalty. Although the financial burden of the penalties seems to be low, hospitals may be reacting to the fact that information about excess readmissions and readmission penalties is being released widely and is scrutinized by the news media and the general public. PMID:25500753

A news media analysis of the economic and reputational penalties of the hospital readmissions reduction program.

PubMed

Winborn, Melissa S; Alencherril, Joyce; Pagán, José A

2014-01-01

Section 3025 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 established the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), an initiative designed to penalize hospitals with excess 30-day readmissions. This study investigates whether readmission penalties under HRRP impose significant reputational effects on hospitals. Data extracted from 2012 to 2013 news stories suggest that the higher the actual penalty, the higher the perceived cost of the penalty, the more likely it is that hospitals will state they have no control over the low-income patients they serve or that they will describe themselves as safety net providers. The downside of being singled out as a low-quality hospital deserving a relatively high penalty seems to be larger than the upside of being singled out as a high-quality hospital facing a relatively low penalty. Although the financial burden of the penalties seems to be low, hospitals may be reacting to the fact that information about excess readmissions and readmission penalties is being released widely and is scrutinized by the news media and the general public. © The Author(s) 2014.

78 FR 18326 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-26

...; Comment Request; Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math Science Annual Performance Report AGENCY: The Office... considered public records. Title of Collection: Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math Science Annual Performance...) and Upward Bound Math and Science (UBMS) Programs. The Department is requesting a new APR because of...

Noisy covariance matrices and portfolio optimization II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pafka, Szilárd; Kondor, Imre

2003-03-01

Recent studies inspired by results from random matrix theory (Galluccio et al.: Physica A 259 (1998) 449; Laloux et al.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 83 (1999) 1467; Risk 12 (3) (1999) 69; Plerou et al.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 83 (1999) 1471) found that covariance matrices determined from empirical financial time series appear to contain such a high amount of noise that their structure can essentially be regarded as random. This seems, however, to be in contradiction with the fundamental role played by covariance matrices in finance, which constitute the pillars of modern investment theory and have also gained industry-wide applications in risk management. Our paper is an attempt to resolve this embarrassing paradox. The key observation is that the effect of noise strongly depends on the ratio r= n/ T, where n is the size of the portfolio and T the length of the available time series. On the basis of numerical experiments and analytic results for some toy portfolio models we show that for relatively large values of r (e.g. 0.6) noise does, indeed, have the pronounced effect suggested by Galluccio et al. (1998), Laloux et al. (1999) and Plerou et al. (1999) and illustrated later by Laloux et al. (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 3 (2000) 391), Plerou et al. (Phys. Rev. E, e-print cond-mat/0108023) and Rosenow et al. (Europhys. Lett., e-print cond-mat/0111537) in a portfolio optimization context, while for smaller r (around 0.2 or below), the error due to noise drops to acceptable levels. Since the length of available time series is for obvious reasons limited in any practical application, any bound imposed on the noise-induced error translates into a bound on the size of the portfolio. In a related set of experiments we find that the effect of noise depends also on whether the problem arises in asset allocation or in a risk measurement context: if covariance matrices are used simply for measuring the risk of portfolios with a fixed composition rather than as inputs to optimization, the effect of noise on the measured risk may become very small.

Chemical Speciation and Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Metal Pollution Hazards in Two Army Shooting Range Backstop Soils.

PubMed

Islam, Mohammad Nazrul; Nguyen, Xuan Phuc; Jung, Ho-Young; Park, Jeong-Hun

2016-02-01

The chemical speciation and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in two shooting range backstop soils in Korea were studied. Both soils were highly contaminated with Cd, Cu, Pb, and Sb. The chemical speciation of heavy metals reflected the present status of contamination, which could help in promoting management practices. We-rye soil had a higher proportion of exchangeable and carbonate bound metals and water-extractable Cd and Sb than the Cho-do soil. Bioavailable Pb represented 42 % of the total Pb content in both soils. A significant amount of Sb was found in the two most bioavailable fractions, amounting to ~32 % in the soil samples, in good agreement with the batch leaching test using water. Based on the values of ecological risk indices, both soils showed extremely high potential risk and may represent serious environmental problems.

[Challenges and inputs of the gender perspective to the study of vector borne diseases].

PubMed

Arenas-Monreal, Luz; Piña-Pozas, Maricela; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor

2015-01-01

The analysis of social determinants and gender within the health-disease-care process is an imperative to understand the variables that define the vulnerability of populations, their exposure risks, the determinants of their care, and the organization and participation in prevention and control programs. Ecohealth incorporates the study of the social determinants and gender perspectives because the emergency of dengue, malaria and Chagas disease are bound to unplanned urbanization, deficient sanitary infrastructure, and poor housing conditions. Gender emerges as an explanatory element of the roles played by men and women in the different scenarios (domestic, communitarian and social) that shape exposure risks to vectors and offer a better perspective of success for the prevention, control and care strategies. The objective is to contribute to the understanding on the gender perspective in the analysis of health risks through a conceptual framework.

Feature Selection for Ridge Regression with Provable Guarantees.

PubMed

Paul, Saurabh; Drineas, Petros

2016-04-01

We introduce single-set spectral sparsification as a deterministic sampling-based feature selection technique for regularized least-squares classification, which is the classification analog to ridge regression. The method is unsupervised and gives worst-case guarantees of the generalization power of the classification function after feature selection with respect to the classification function obtained using all features. We also introduce leverage-score sampling as an unsupervised randomized feature selection method for ridge regression. We provide risk bounds for both single-set spectral sparsification and leverage-score sampling on ridge regression in the fixed design setting and show that the risk in the sampled space is comparable to the risk in the full-feature space. We perform experiments on synthetic and real-world data sets; a subset of TechTC-300 data sets, to support our theory. Experimental results indicate that the proposed methods perform better than the existing feature selection methods.

A Collaborative Evaluation of LC-MS/MS Based Methods for BMAA Analysis: Soluble Bound BMAA Found to Be an Important Fraction.

PubMed

Faassen, Elisabeth J; Antoniou, Maria G; Beekman-Lukassen, Wendy; Blahova, Lucie; Chernova, Ekaterina; Christophoridis, Christophoros; Combes, Audrey; Edwards, Christine; Fastner, Jutta; Harmsen, Joop; Hiskia, Anastasia; Ilag, Leopold L; Kaloudis, Triantafyllos; Lopicic, Srdjan; Lürling, Miquel; Mazur-Marzec, Hanna; Meriluoto, Jussi; Porojan, Cristina; Viner-Mozzini, Yehudit; Zguna, Nadezda

2016-02-29

Exposure to β-N-methylamino-l-alanine (BMAA) might be linked to the incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease. Analytical chemistry plays a crucial role in determining human BMAA exposure and the associated health risk, but the performance of various analytical methods currently employed is rarely compared. A CYANOCOST initiated workshop was organized aimed at training scientists in BMAA analysis, creating mutual understanding and paving the way towards interlaboratory comparison exercises. During this workshop, we tested different methods (extraction followed by derivatization and liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) analysis, or directly followed by LC-MS/MS analysis) for trueness and intermediate precision. We adapted three workup methods for the underivatized analysis of animal, brain and cyanobacterial samples. Based on recovery of the internal standard D₃BMAA, the underivatized methods were accurate (mean recovery 80%) and precise (mean relative standard deviation 10%), except for the cyanobacterium Leptolyngbya. However, total BMAA concentrations in the positive controls (cycad seeds) showed higher variation (relative standard deviation 21%-32%), implying that D₃BMAA was not a good indicator for the release of BMAA from bound forms. Significant losses occurred during workup for the derivatized method, resulting in low recovery (<10%). Most BMAA was found in a trichloroacetic acid soluble, bound form and we recommend including this fraction during analysis.

PM2.5-bound metal metabolic distribution and coupled lipid abnormality at different developmental windows.

PubMed

Ku, Tingting; Zhang, Yingying; Ji, Xiaotong; Li, Guangke; Sang, Nan

2017-09-01

Atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a serious threat to human health. As a toxicant constituent, metal leads to significant health risks in a population, but exposure to PM 2.5 -bound metals and their biological impacts are not fully understood. In this study, we determined the metal contents of PM 2.5 samples collected from a typical coal-burning city and then investigated the metabolic distributions of six metals (Zn, Pb, Mn, As, Cu, and Cd) following PM 2.5 inhalation in mice in different developmental windows. The results indicate that fine particles were mainly deposited in the lung, but PM 2.5 -bound metals could reach and gather in secondary off-target tissues (the lung, liver, heart and brain) with a developmental window-dependent property. Furthermore, elevations in triglycerides and cholesterol levels in sensitive developmental windows (the young and elderly stages) occurred, and significant associations between metals (Pb, Mn, As and Cd) and cholesterol in the heart, brain, liver and lung were observed. These findings suggest that PM 2.5 inhalation caused selective metal metabolic distribution in tissues with a developmental window-dependent property and that the effects were associated with lipid alterations. This provides a foundation for the underlying systemic toxicity following PM 2.5 exposure based on metal components. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Online Composite Mirror Descent Algorithm.

PubMed

Lei, Yunwen; Zhou, Ding-Xuan

2017-03-01

We study the convergence of the online composite mirror descent algorithm, which involves a mirror map to reflect the geometry of the data and a convex objective function consisting of a loss and a regularizer possibly inducing sparsity. Our error analysis provides convergence rates in terms of properties of the strongly convex differentiable mirror map and the objective function. For a class of objective functions with Hölder continuous gradients, the convergence rates of the excess (regularized) risk under polynomially decaying step sizes have the order [Formula: see text] after [Formula: see text] iterates. Our results improve the existing error analysis for the online composite mirror descent algorithm by avoiding averaging and removing boundedness assumptions, and they sharpen the existing convergence rates of the last iterate for online gradient descent without any boundedness assumptions. Our methodology mainly depends on a novel error decomposition in terms of an excess Bregman distance, refined analysis of self-bounding properties of the objective function, and the resulting one-step progress bounds.

Two approximations of the present value distribution of a disability annuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spreeuw, Jaap

2006-02-01

The distribution function of the present value of a cash flow can be approximated by means of a distribution function of a random variable, which is also the present value of a sequence of payments, but with a simpler structure. The corresponding random variable has the same expectation as the random variable corresponding to the original distribution function and is a stochastic upper bound of convex order. A sharper upper bound can be obtained if more information about the risk is available. In this paper, it will be shown that such an approach can be adopted for disability annuities (also known as income protection policies) in a three state model under Markov assumptions. Benefits are payable during any spell of disability whilst premiums are only due whenever the insured is healthy. The quality of the two approximations is investigated by comparing the distributions obtained with the one derived from the algorithm presented in the paper by Hesselager and Norberg [Insurance Math. Econom. 18 (1996) 35-42].

Mars 2001 Cruise Phase Radiation Measurments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Badhwar, G. D.

1999-01-01

Mars 2001 presents an exciting opportunity for advances in radiation risk management of a future human mission to Mars. The mission timing is particularly fortuitous, coming just after solar maxinuun, when there will be a high probability to observe significant solar particle events (SPEs). A major objective of this mission is to characterize the Martian radiation environment to support future human missions to Mars. In addition, the MARIE instruments on the Lander and Orbiter, designed to measure the energetic particle flux at Mars, can be used during the cruise phase to provide multipoint observations of SPEs in the critical region of the heliosphere (1 to 1.5 AU) needed to reduce the in-flight radiation risk to a future Mars-bound crew.

Exact one-sided confidence bounds for the risk ratio in 2 x 2 tables with structural zero.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-12-01

This paper examines exact one-sided confidence limits for the risk ratio in a 2 x 2 table with structural zero. Starting with four approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust each using the algorithm of Buehler (1957) to arrive at lower (upper) limits that have exact coverage properties and are as large (small) as possible subject to coverage, as well as an ordering, constraint. Different Buehler limits are compared by their mean size, since all are exact in their coverage. Buehler limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are found to have the best performance and recommended for practical use. (c) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Association between cell-bound blood amyloid-β(1-40) levels and hippocampus volume.

PubMed

Sotolongo-Grau, Oscar; Pesini, Pedro; Valero, Sergi; Lafuente, Asunción; Buendía, Mar; Pérez-Grijalba, Virginia; José, Itziar San; Ibarria, Marta; Tejero, Miguel A; Giménez, Joan; Hernández, Isabel; Tárraga, Lluís; Ruiz, Agustín; Boada, Mercé; Sarasa, Manuel

2014-01-01

The identification of early, preferably presymptomatic, biomarkers and true etiologic factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the first step toward establishing effective primary and secondary prevention programs. Consequently, the search for a relatively inexpensive and harmless biomarker for AD continues. Despite intensive research worldwide, to date there is no definitive plasma or blood biomarker indicating high or low risk of conversion to AD. Magnetic resonance imaging and β-amyloid (Aβ) levels in three blood compartments (diluted in plasma, undiluted in plasma and cell-bound) were measured in 96 subjects (33 with mild cognitive impairment, 14 with AD and 49 healthy controls). Pearson correlations were completed between 113 regions of interest (ROIs) (45 subcortical and 68 cortical) and Aβ levels. Pearson correlation analyses adjusted for the covariates age, sex, apolipoprotein E (ApoE), education and creatinine levels showed neuroimaging ROIs were associated with Aβ levels. Two statistical methods were applied to study the major relationships identified: (1) Pearson correlation with phenotype added as a covariate and (2) a meta-analysis stratified by phenotype. Neuroimaging data and plasma Aβ measurements were taken from 630 Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) subjects to be compared with our results. The left hippocampus was the brain region most correlated with Aβ(1-40) bound to blood cell pellets (partial correlation (pcor) = -0.37, P = 0.0007) after adjustment for the covariates age, gender and education, ApoE and creatinine levels. The correlation remained almost the same (pcor = -0.35, P = 0.002) if phenotype is also added as a covariate. The association between both measurements was independent of cognitive status. The left hemisphere entorhinal cortex also correlated with Aβ(1-40) cell-bound fraction. AB128 and ADNI plasma Aβ measurements were not related to any brain morphometric measurement. Association of cell-bound Aβ(1-40) in blood with left hippocampal volume was much stronger than previously observed in Aβ plasma fractions. If confirmed, this observation will require careful interpretation and must be taken into account for blood amyloid-based biomarker development.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Branch-and-Bound algorithm applied to uncertainty quantification of a Boiling Water Reactor Station Blackout

DOE PAGES

Nielsen, Joseph; Tokuhiro, Akira; Hiromoto, Robert; ...

2015-11-13

Evaluation of the impacts of uncertainty and sensitivity in modeling presents a significant set of challenges in particular to high fidelity modeling. Computational costs and validation of models creates a need for cost effective decision making with regards to experiment design. Experiments designed to validate computation models can be used to reduce uncertainty in the physical model. In some cases, large uncertainty in a particular aspect of the model may or may not have a large impact on the final results. For example, modeling of a relief valve may result in large uncertainty, however, the actual effects on final peakmore » clad temperature in a reactor transient may be small and the large uncertainty with respect to valve modeling may be considered acceptable. Additionally, the ability to determine the adequacy of a model and the validation supporting it should be considered within a risk informed framework. Low fidelity modeling with large uncertainty may be considered adequate if the uncertainty is considered acceptable with respect to risk. In other words, models that are used to evaluate the probability of failure should be evaluated more rigorously with the intent of increasing safety margin. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques have traditionally been used to identify accident conditions and transients. Traditional classical event tree methods utilize analysts’ knowledge and experience to identify the important timing of events in coordination with thermal-hydraulic modeling. These methods lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems. In these systems, time and energy scales associated with transient events may vary as a function of transition times and energies to arrive at a different physical state. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems. Unfortunately DPRA methods introduce issues associated with combinatorial explosion of states. This study presents a methodology to address combinatorial explosion using a Branch-and-Bound algorithm applied to Dynamic Event Trees (DET), which utilize LENDIT (L – Length, E – Energy, N – Number, D – Distribution, I – Information, and T – Time) as well as a set theory to describe system, state, resource, and response (S2R2) sets to create bounding functions for the DET. The optimization of the DET in identifying high probability failure branches is extended to create a Phenomenological Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) methodology to evaluate modeling parameters important to safety of those failure branches that have a high probability of failure. The PIRT can then be used as a tool to identify and evaluate the need for experimental validation of models that have the potential to reduce risk. Finally, in order to demonstrate this methodology, a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Station Blackout (SBO) case study is presented.« less

Heboidophrenia and Pseudo-Psychopathic Schizophrenia: Current Knowledge and Critical Perspective.

PubMed

De Page, Louis; Englebert, Jérôme

2018-06-26

In this article, based on literature review, we present an integrated description of heboidophrenia and pseudo-psychopathic schizophrenia. Both diagnostic constructs describe latent psychotic processes inextricably bound with psychopathic features. Although both have been described in different eras and research threads, they are that similar that we could not find divergences. We formulated operational criteria for clinical and research purpose. The recognition of this syndrome improves risk management, treatment, and legal decisions. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Effects of Assuming Independent Component Failure Times, if They Actually Dependent, in a Series System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-26

test for independence; ons i ser, -, of the poduct life estimator; dependent risks; 119 ASRACT Coniinue on ’wme-se f nereiary-~and iaen r~f> by Worst...the failure times associated with different failure - modes when we really should use a bivariate (or multivariate) distribution, then what is the...dependencies may be present, then what is the magnitude of the estimation error? S The third specific aim will attempt to obtain bounds on the

Stereoselective construction of the 5-hydroxy diazabicyclo[4.3.1]decane-2-one scaffold, a privileged motif for FK506-binding proteins.

PubMed

Bischoff, Matthias; Sippel, Claudia; Bracher, Andreas; Hausch, Felix

2014-10-17

A stereoselective synthesis of a derivatized bicyclic [4.3.1]decane scaffold based on an acyclic precursor is described. The key steps involve a Pd-catalyzed sp(3)-sp(2) Negishi-coupling, an asymmetric Shi epoxidation, and an intramolecular epoxide opening. Representative derivatives of this novel scaffold were synthesized and found to be potent inhibitors of the psychiatric risk factor FKBP51, which bound to FKBP51 with the intended molecular binding mode.

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Concentrations in Drinking Water in Villages along the Huai River in China and Their Association with High Cancer Incidence in Local Population.

PubMed

Pan, En Chun; Sun, Hong; Xu, Qiu Jin; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Lin Fei; Chen, Xiao Dong; Xu, Yan

2015-01-01

This study aims to evaluate the carcinogenic risk of PAHs in the drinking water of counties along the Huai River in China and study their associations with high cancer incidence in local population. We investigated 20 villages with high cancer incidence rates as the risk group and 20 villages with low rates as the control group. Water samples from each village were collected in the winter and summer seasons to analyze the concentrations of 16 PAHs. The carcinogenic risks of the PAHs were calculated for each village using a health risk assessment approach. Results showed that PAHs concentrations in 27.2% of the water samples were higher than the allowable values in China. However, no significant difference in water PAHs concentrations was observed between the risk and control groups (P > 0.05), and no correlation was found between water PAHs concentrations and cancer incidence in these villages. The average upper bound carcinogenic risks were less than 1 × 10(-4) in both groups. In conclusion, PAHs were present in the drinking water of the studied villages, but their carcinogenic risks remained within acceptable limits. PAHs in local drinking water might not be the major environmental cause of the high cancer incidences.

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Concentrations in Drinking Water in Villages along the Huai River in China and Their Association with High Cancer Incidence in Local Population

PubMed Central

Pan, En chun; Sun, Hong; Xu, Qiu jin; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Lin fei; Chen, Xiao dong; Xu, Yan

2015-01-01

This study aims to evaluate the carcinogenic risk of PAHs in the drinking water of counties along the Huai River in China and study their associations with high cancer incidence in local population. We investigated 20 villages with high cancer incidence rates as the risk group and 20 villages with low rates as the control group. Water samples from each village were collected in the winter and summer seasons to analyze the concentrations of 16 PAHs. The carcinogenic risks of the PAHs were calculated for each village using a health risk assessment approach. Results showed that PAHs concentrations in 27.2% of the water samples were higher than the allowable values in China. However, no significant difference in water PAHs concentrations was observed between the risk and control groups (P > 0.05), and no correlation was found between water PAHs concentrations and cancer incidence in these villages. The average upper bound carcinogenic risks were less than 1 × 10−4 in both groups. In conclusion, PAHs were present in the drinking water of the studied villages, but their carcinogenic risks remained within acceptable limits. PAHs in local drinking water might not be the major environmental cause of the high cancer incidences. PMID:26688818

21 CFR 862.1640 - Protein-bound iodine test system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Protein-bound iodine test system. 862.1640 Section... Systems § 862.1640 Protein-bound iodine test system. (a) Identification. A protein-bound iodine test system is a device intended to measure protein-bound iodine in serum. Measurements of protein-bound...

21 CFR 862.1640 - Protein-bound iodine test system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Protein-bound iodine test system. 862.1640 Section... Systems § 862.1640 Protein-bound iodine test system. (a) Identification. A protein-bound iodine test system is a device intended to measure protein-bound iodine in serum. Measurements of protein-bound...

21 CFR 862.1640 - Protein-bound iodine test system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Protein-bound iodine test system. 862.1640 Section... Systems § 862.1640 Protein-bound iodine test system. (a) Identification. A protein-bound iodine test system is a device intended to measure protein-bound iodine in serum. Measurements of protein-bound...

21 CFR 862.1640 - Protein-bound iodine test system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Protein-bound iodine test system. 862.1640 Section... Systems § 862.1640 Protein-bound iodine test system. (a) Identification. A protein-bound iodine test system is a device intended to measure protein-bound iodine in serum. Measurements of protein-bound...

Upper bounds on superpartner masses from upper bounds on the Higgs boson mass.

PubMed

Cabrera, M E; Casas, J A; Delgado, A

2012-01-13

The LHC is putting bounds on the Higgs boson mass. In this Letter we use those bounds to constrain the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) parameter space using the fact that, in supersymmetry, the Higgs mass is a function of the masses of sparticles, and therefore an upper bound on the Higgs mass translates into an upper bound for the masses for superpartners. We show that, although current bounds do not constrain the MSSM parameter space from above, once the Higgs mass bound improves big regions of this parameter space will be excluded, putting upper bounds on supersymmetry (SUSY) masses. On the other hand, for the case of split-SUSY we show that, for moderate or large tanβ, the present bounds on the Higgs mass imply that the common mass for scalars cannot be greater than 10(11)  GeV. We show how these bounds will evolve as LHC continues to improve the limits on the Higgs mass.

34 CFR 645.12 - What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? 645.12 Section 645.12 Education Regulations of the Offices of the... services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? Any project assisted...

34 CFR 645.12 - What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? 645.12 Section 645.12 Education Regulations of the Offices of the... services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? Any project assisted...

34 CFR 645.12 - What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? 645.12 Section 645.12 Education Regulations of the Offices of the... services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? Any project assisted...

34 CFR 645.12 - What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false What services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? 645.12 Section 645.12 Education Regulations of the Offices of the... services may regular Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math-Science projects provide? Any project assisted...

Can we risk recovery? A grounded theory of clinical psychologists' perceptions of risk and recovery-oriented mental health services.

PubMed

Tickle, Anna; Brown, Dora; Hayward, Mark

2014-03-01

This study sought to explore the views of clinical psychologists towards the concepts of 'risk' and 'recovery' and to set those views against the context of mental health services. An exploratory, social constructionist grounded theory methodology was adopted. Eleven clinical psychologists working in adult mental health services each participated in one individual semistructured interview. The clinical psychologists studied were aware of the emergence of recovery-oriented approaches, but felt unable to incorporate them in practice because of perceptions of being bound by both their own limitations and those of their circumstances, including issues of risk, thus giving rise to dilemmas in professional practice. Narrow definitions of risk as equated to danger dominated over broader conceptualizations of risk with positive consequences. The existing culture of mental health services was seen as emphasizing the need to avoid harmful consequences of taking risks, which in turn was seen to limit innovations in implementing recovery-oriented approaches. Participants' ability to work in a recovery-oriented manner seemed to be limited by the way in which services perceived and responded to risk. Participants did not discuss risks arising from stigma, social exclusion, racism, sexism, or iatrogenic effects of psychiatric treatment. Narrow conceptualizations of risk as related to harm and danger seen in this study contribute to a sense of needing to be risk averse. However, the implications for practice included ideas about what might increase the possibilities for adopting recovery approaches across disciplines. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Earthtech, Dig-Texas and Upward Bound: Outreach to At-Risk Students with Interdisciplinary STEM Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olgin, J. G.; Güereque, M.; Pennington, D. D.; Everett, A.; Dixon, J. G.; Reyes, A.; Houser, P. I. Q.; Baker, J. A.; Stocks, E.; Ellins, K.

2015-12-01

The Geological Sciences department at the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) hosted the EarthTech outreach program - a one-week intensive summer camp for low-income, at-risk high school students. The EarthTech program engaged students in STEM activities from geological and environmental sciences. Developed and led by university student-mentors with guidance from a supervising faculty member, the course engaged Upward Bound students with lectures, interactive projects, and excursions to local ecological preserves and geological sites around El Paso, Texas. Topics covered plant and animal distribution and diversity, water and soil dynamics, evolution and paleontology, geohazards, and planetary science. Field trips were combined with hands-on activities, including activities from DIG Texas teaching modules. The NSF-funded DIG Texas Instructional Blueprints project is organizing vetted, high quality online educational resources and learning activities into teaching modules. The modules follow a storyline and demonstrate congruency with the Next Generation Science Standards. Selected DIG Texas resources were included in the daily curriculum to complement the field trip and other hands-on activities. EarthTech students created ESRI Online GIS story maps in which they showed the locations of the field trips, incorporated photographs they had taken, and provided written reflections about their camp experiences. The DIG Texas project evaluation collected survey and interview data from the university student mentors throughout the week to ascertain the efficacy of the program. This poster presentation will include an overview of the program, including examples of work and evaluation results.

Degradation and transformation products of acetaminophen in soil.

PubMed

Li, Juying; Ye, Qingfu; Gan, Jay

2014-02-01

Acetaminophen is the most widely used human medicine. Trace levels of acetaminophen are frequently detected in treated wastewater and the impacted surface or groundwater resources. However, even though soil is a primary receiving compartment, the fate of acetaminophen in soil is poorly known, including in particular the potential for the formation of incomplete degradation products that may have altered biological activity and mobility. In this study, using both (14)C-labeling and LC-MS/MS techniques, we evaluated the dissipation routes and transformation pathways of acetaminophen in soils under a range of conditions. Throughout 120-d aerobic incubation, up to 17.0 ± 0.8% of (14)C-acetaminophen was mineralized, but mineralization was greatly inhibited after sterilization or amendment of biosolids. Immediately after treatment, the majority of (14)C-residue became non-extractable or bound, with the level accounting for 73.4-93.3% of the applied amount at the end of incubation. A total of 8 intermediates were identified, including 3-hydroxyacetaminophen, hydroquinone, 1, 4-benzoquinone, N-acetyl-p-benzoquinone imine, p-acetanisidide, 4-methoxyphenol, 2-hexenoic acid, and 1, 4-dimethoxybenzene. Mineralization and rapid conversion to bound residues suggest that acetaminophen is quickly detoxified in soil, decreasing the potential for off-site transport such as leaching or runoff. On the other hand, the formation of a large number of degradation intermediates, and their potential biological activity, may pose unknown risks, such as accumulation into edible plants. This risk warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.